Which pollster will win the referendum polling race?

May 5th, 2011

Cast your vote in the quickie election day poll

While we wait for some hard news let’s speculate about the Great 2011 Polling Race.

The next twenty-four hours or so are going to be pretty tense for the four polling organisations that carried out regular AV surveys as well as a final week poll. Their projected outcomes – a NO victory – are not in doubt but which one will be nearest to the vote share?

There is enormous kudos for the winning firm and each will be very anxious. So which one is it going to be? They range from ICM’s 68% for NO to YouGov’s 60% – a 38% margin or just a 20% one.

What do you think?

Which pollster has the most accurate forecast on the referendum?
ICM – NO 68%
ComRes – No 66%
Angus Reid – NO 61%
YouGov – NO 60%

Mike Smithson