Punters think WH2024 will be a 2020 re-run
Mike Smithson
Conservative losses: Just how low could the Tories go?
Best for Britain published the results of another MRP poll on Tuesday, which had the Conservatives winning 129 seats at the next General Election. This was for 28.8% of the vote (excluding don’t knows and non-voters). That MRP poll was a considerable improvement for the Tories compared with the previous one conducted by Focaldata. In the autumn of last year, they found that the Tories would win just 64 seats. This was with the Tories winning 22.7% of the vote. …
Could Rishi be replaced before the election?
All the signs are that the Tories are going to struggle to hold onto power at the general election. According to the John Curtice calculation they will need a overall GB vote lead of about 3% to ensure that they have got a majority. Labour by contrast need 7%. Although the polls have edged down a fair bit since their worst moments last year the Tories are still facing a huge struggle in order to put them into a position…
Electric cars – are they worth the hassle?
A couple of days ago I was driving North up the M6 when we stopped at a service station. The car pictured above was was being charged as we arrived and was still being charged when we left after about half an hour. It struck me that having to go through this process once or twice on a trip was an enormous hassle. I remember a conversation with a guy who provided services for the electrical power industry who declared…
Trump’s legal problems set to get much worse
Poor Donald Trump, he spent most of 2016 arguing that Hillary Clinton should be locked up now he might end up being locked up himself. What a failure Trump was, in four years as President with a GOP senate, a GOP House for the first two years, and a SCOTUS with a majority of GOP hacks, he wasn’t able to destroy the deep state. None of this changes my view that Trump will still win the GOP nomination. TSE
Starmer dwarfs Sunak on the leadership front
There is some hope among Tory strategists and Sunak himself that a mixture of tax cuts and Sunak’s leadership will help the Tories do better at the general election than the current polls suggest. This is polling from Redfield & Wilton shows how risky that strategy could do. I suspect whilst Sunak polls better than his party, I suspect any positives Sunak has is being damaged by the huge negatives around the party. Sunak has made mistakes, such as keeping…
The Monday open thread
This from Today’s FT should really worry Rishi
The Tories paying the price for Brexit? We are so used to the Tories being the party that attracts big private donations that makes this political development stand out. It is a huge win for Starmer not just for the campaign cash that his party is getting but for the source and the reasons. The FT report notes that the big driver of this donation was Brexit and the Tories must hope that this is not the start of a…