538 blog New York Times

And Gingrich could be struggling in his home state

Above is the latest projection from Nate Silvers 538 blog at the New York Times and shows his latest projection for the crucial Michigan primary that takes place a week today. As can be seen he’s giving it to Romney by the smallest of margins.

A new Mitchell Research poll taken yesterday has Romney 2 points ahead. Just over a week ago the same pollster had Santorum with a 9% lead.

What seems to be making a huge difference here is that this is the state where Mitt was born and grew up and where his father won the governorship twice. According to the Mitchell poll 25% of voters say they are “more likely” to vote for Romney because of this – a finding that could explain why the betting favourite is not seeing such turnarounds in other states or, indeed, in national polls.

Meanwhile there’s a tight three-way battle going on in Georgia – which votes on “Super Tuesday” a fortnight today. Nate makes Romney the leader here but only by a whisker over Gingrich and Santorum. Georgia is, of course, Gingrich’s home state and it could be a fatal blow if he didn’t win.

One factor that’s worth noting is that Santorum has out-performed his poll ratings in all the states where he’s been in contention.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Let Scotland go and compete.Everyone would win.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012

From distance, Santorum doing great.Values really do count in America, and not sneered at as in parts of Europe. Win Michigan game over.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012

Alex Salmond clearly most brilliant politicianin U.K.Gave Cameron back of his hand this week.Loved by Scots.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 19, 2012

How much influence does he still have?

There’ve been a couple of tweets overnight from Rupurt Murdoch giving his views of coming elections battles on both sides of the Atlantic. As can be seen one is pro-Scottish independence and the other is about the front-runner in the Republican nomination race, Rick Santorym.

In the Scottish referendum battle Murdoch’s view could not be me clear – the media magnate is backing the YES to independence option in the coming Scottish referendum.

Scotland’s biggest selling newspaper, News International’s the Scottish Sun, endorsed the SNP ahead of later May’s Holyrood election which saw the party being returned with an overall majority.

That was before, of course, the ‘spot of bother’ that Murdoch’s newspaper group got into a couple of months later over the hacking affair.

A key part of the referendum campaign will be about turnout and this is where the Scottish Sun could make a critical difference encouraging those demographic groups who are less likely to vote.

The downside for the YES campaign is that the ongoing troubles that the Murdoch empire might undermine its influence and could possibly be counter-productive.

In the US, of course, Murdoch has a huge media empire including some key newspapers and, of course, Fox News. His point about perceptions of values issues being different in the UK is an acute one.

Whatever Rupert has come out of the past week fighting and we shouldn’t underestimate him.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Welcome once again to the cafe – our informal overnight thread where you set the agenda.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

The first telephone poll of the month, ICM for the Guardian is out and sees the Tory five point lead of last month become a one point LAB lead tonight.

This follows a difficult period for the coalition particularly on the Lansley health bill. On that 52% say that the bill should be dropped with 33% saying the plans should be stuck to.

Whatever the apparent splits within the blue, reported by Tim Montgomerie at ConHome, are clearly not helping.

Other polls are expected this evening and this post will be up-dated.

UPDATE – Populus/Times has CON 37(-): LAB 39(+1): LD 11 (-2)

So the direction of travel, if not the numbers, very much the same as ICM.

@MikeSmithsonOGH