Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Guardian ICM Labour lead down to 5

Monday, May 21st, 2012

 

Conservatives 36 (+3)

Labour 41 (nc)

LD 11 (-4)

Others 12 (+1)

Alarming for the the Lib Dems, they have hit a 15 year low with ICM.

For David Cameron, the trend with the other pollsters is mirrored here, as his personal ratings have fallen, where he is now in a dead heat with Ed Miliband on the leadership ratings.

The coalition retain their lead on the economic front, with some 44% prefer Cameron and chancellor George Osborne, as against 35% who would rather Ed Miliband and his shadow chancellor Ed Balls were in charge of the finances.

The gap was 21 points in December, 18 in January, 17 in March and 13 in April before closing by another four points over the last month.

There should be a Populus poll in the Times this evening, as soon as that is available, this post will be updated.

 

Populus Update

Labour 41 (-1) 
Tories 33 (nc)  
LD 10 (-1) 
Others 16 (+2)

The supplementaries are consistent with ICM, The Tories/Coalition still retain a lead over Labour when it comes to the economy, but that lead is narrowing.

Labour are still behind on the economy, with David Cameron, Nick Clegg and George Osborne trusted as the better economic team. The coalition team is backed by 40 per cent of the public, down two points from March. Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are on 33, up five points.

TSE

 

 



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Finding out about current UKIP supporters

Sunday, May 20th, 2012

Are the blues right to think that the purples will return?

The two big moves in opinion since the general election have been the Lib Dem collapse with the switch to Labour and now the rise of UKIP.

The former has been studied at length but there’s been very little polling data on the latter. One challenge is that of all the pollsters only ComRes provides cross-tabs on UKIP supporters. In its latest poll Comres also has the question “Which, if any, of these parties would you seriously consider voting for at a General Election if it were held tomorrow?”.

From the data for the SIndy/SMirror poll we can start to build a picture of what current UKIP supporters are thinking and the potential election dynamics.

These are some of the headline points which I Tweeted:

@MikeSmithsonOGH



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The LAB/Ed surge continues with the top pollster on Boris vs Ken

Saturday, May 19th, 2012

Opinium’s leader ratings also have Ed ahead of Dave

There’s a new poll out from Opinium – the online firm that hasn’t received much credit for being closest with the final Boris-Ken split in the London Mayoral election just over a fortnight ago.

It reported a 52-48 final split which was two points closer than YouGov. The final split in actual votes was 51.53% to 48.47%.

Opiinum’s latest Westminster VI poll is now reporting, like the other firms, a move to Labour away from the Tories since April with a very high UKIP share. This is the split CON 30-2/LAB 41+2/UKIP 10-/LD 9+1.

The firm’s leader approval ratings show with changes on last month: DC=-27%(-5)/EdM =-17(+9)/NC-46(-3)

All this is in line with what we’ve seen from YouGov and the other firms.

    It means that all the polls from all the pollsters to have reported since the May 3 local elections have LAB with double digit leads.

After the weekend we should get the results of phone polls from ICM and Populus.

@MikeSmithsonOGH



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Cameron’s MORI ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops

The latest Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Evening Standard is out and has more bad polling news for the coalition parties and their leaders.

The voting intention numbers are CON 33 (-2):LAB43 (+5): LD 9 (-3), But it’s the MORI leader ratings which, arguably, are the most significant.

Dave’s -28% rating is worse than anything that Brown scored with MORI in the period up to the 2010 general election. These were:-

    JAN 2012 -26%
    FEB 2010 -21%
    MAR 2010 -26%
    APR 2010 -24%

Clegg (-8) and the Lib Dems (-3) come out of this poll appallingly as well.

The only consolation for them is that EdM’s personal numbers have only moved a little even though Labour voting intention share has risen by 5%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH