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Next to exit the cabinet betting? BUY Lansley – SELL Huhne

May 29th, 2011


Sunday Telegraph

Extracts from the Sundays

The Indy on Sunday: “Chris Huhne, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, has dominated the headlines for three weeks now. The intensity of media interest is justified by the seriousness of the allegations against him. It is not so much the matter of an eight-year-old alleged speeding offence. It is the allegation that he asked someone else to take his penalty points, which would be an attempt to pervert the course of justice. And there is his current denial, which, if proved false, would be the most damaging. As we go to press, it looks as if Mr Huhne may survive, if only because of the impossibility of proving wrongdoing beyond reasonable doubt”

Patrick Hennessy – Sunday Telegraph: “The Sunday Telegraph has learned that the package of changes to the Health and Social Care Bill is likely to be finalised in around three weeks’ time after a bruising internal battle between Mr Cameron, Mr Lansley and Nick Clegg. Senior figures at 10 Downing Street have begun to “war game” Mr Lansley’s departure on the ground that his Bill will be so radically different from its original state that he no longer has the credibility to drive it through…. A fellow Conservative minister said last night: “I have immense personal sympathy for Andrew but if the Bill becomes something totally different from his original proposals then he will simply not have the credibility to lead the reforms.…”

The Observer: “The health secretary, Andrew Lansley, has been forced into a major U-turn on funding for public health campaigns, after evidence emerged that the spending freeze had cost lives….”

Matthew D’Ancona Sunday Telegraph: “As for Lansley, he has good reason to feel aggrieved and betrayed. His life’s work is being dismantled before his very eyes. Support that was promised is being withdrawn. He is being deserted in the most ruthless fashion. Number 10 accepts that he may well resign. Whether or not he does so, the final insult is the unambiguous signal he has already been sent by his most senior colleagues: that his departure, however regrettable, is a price worth paying. Anything – anything – to make this political horror-show go away.

Mail on Sunday: “In a statement, a spokesman for Essex Police said: ‘We can confirm we have spoken to two key people on Tuesday at a police station in Essex and in London. We don’t expect a major update on this case for up to two weeks.’ Essex Police declined to comment further.”

Ladbrokes have eased the Huhne next to exit price to 4/6 while Lansley is now the 7/1 second favourite. They both might go but the critical element is the timing and here the pressure seems to be off Huhne and onto Lansley.

Mike Smithson




  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    Andrea @300

    Did Ann Widdecombe ever get offered the Holy See ambassador job? I may be imagining things here, but it does ring a bell.

  • tim

    300 – A child abuser would be acceptable.

  • Frank Booth

    300. If aquitted, DSK would be available.

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato
  • Andrea

    At Roland Garros a comical situation…Fognini-Montanes 9-8 in the final set…Fognini is injured and can’t move…Montanes has lost his head and can’t close the match

  • malcolmG

    280. Dick Doddery, hopefully you were not including yourself in the “adult” category but were talking about your Dad. Going by the way you adults down there hav eperformed up to now I would think children would do a much better job. Running a bath would be beyond you.

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    From Guardian liveblog:

    Here’s Matt Scott in Zurich: “Wandering around the outbuilding at Fifa House where we press are corralled I have discovered that apparently three of Fifa’s 387 personnel are tailors. There is a room marked “Tailors” in which people are frantically sewing badges on blazers. Less than 48 hours before the two-day Fifa congress, they are doubtless busy. How they are occupied the other 383 days of the year, I cannot testify. NB: Average Fifa staffer’s salary, 2010 US$200,000.”

  • elephantman

    305 – the injured player won the next three games and won… lack of drop shots?

  • elephantman

    Geneva & Zurich are full of gravy boats like FIFA – amazing there’s so little scrutiny.

    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    Rick Perry polishes his cutting credentials

    TheEconomist The Economist
    Texas’s legislature reaches for the axe and hopes to close its budget gap http://econ.st/jpaP0O

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    tweetminster Tweetminster
    Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper claims Gaddafi ready to quit on condition of immunity for himself & family #Libya

  • slackbladder

    311: Hmm would that be worth it… I would guess it would.

  • Andrea

    308. yes and it was the injured players making drop shots to the other one who continued to just place the ball at the centre of the court without moving the injured one who was hitting hard

  • IoS
  • notme

    311. Would that be within Libya? He must know that that cant work. His family (assuming as adults they are complicit in his actions) should not be punished. Gadaffi is either going to win, or die at the end of a piece of rope.

  • chris_g00

    Button v.unlucky, racing fans unlucky, could have been classic finish.

  • notme

    314. It’s an interesting piece, overly gloomy, but backed up with facts. What is amazing though, imagine a reader from outerspace would come and read that article and assume that the present Government was responsible for the mess. The author accurately diagnosis the problems, but completely unable to point the blame.

  • dr spyn

    Will the nits shoot the messenger?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-13588213

    looks as if one of Salmond’s advisers thinks independence is a waste of time.

  • NoOffenceAlan

    254. The key thing for Labour is to call the by-election while Holyrood is in session, and the SNP government are busy.
    By calling Glasgow East during the recess, SNP ministers were available to personally canvass swing voters.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    F1 post-race analysis is up:

    http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2011/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html

    Tim B: don’t click the bloody link unless you’ve watched it already :P

  • dr spyn
  • richard dodd

    306 Malcolmg..I wondered how long it would take for the Idiot factor to join in…Enjoy the darkness boys..but then you should be used to it by now..and running a bath will be a rarity up in the dark northlands..dont forget to take the coal/chickens/peat or granny out of the tub first.

  • Nick Palmer

    216 – Richard N, yes, I do think it’s being pushed through anyway, as a matter of objective fact. IMO that’s undemocratic and frankly unwise (because it narrows the space for maneouvre if they do have second thoughts about anything), but I try to report things as I see them, not as I’d like to see them.

    Don’t you think the decision to rush ahead rather than have a Royal Commission was part of the general strategy of doing unpopular stuff early in the Parliament? Nobody denies that this is part of the strategy (and all governments do it). A RC would have reported at say the end of this year, and we’d be having the argument into 2012/2013. As with public inquiries, people only accept the findings if they agreed with them anyway.

    Of course, if the Bill goes back into committee, we’ll probably still be talking about it in 2012 anyway. It’ll be like AV, with a thread on the subject three times a week for years. :-)

    andrea, did Malta ban ALL divorces – even the kind that used to be allowed even in the bad old days in the UK (your spouse goes mad, the marriage isn’t consummated, etc.)?

  • Neil

    o/t Pat Cox is still odds on to be FG presidential election candidate. As he’s not a member and FG actually have people wanting the nomination this just looks like free money (betting against him!) to me. Mairead is in to 9/2 with PP to win outright now (from 6/1 though probably only because I mentioned the odds here yesterday) and that still looks like value to me. I would love the current favourite (David Norris 13/8) to win but he isnt even sure of getting on the ballot. I would also love Michael D. Higgins (4/1) to win but cant quite see it happening.

  • Tim B

    Morris Dancer @320:

    Tim B: don’t click the bloody link unless you’ve watched it already

     

    Thank you for your kind thoughts from one Yorkshireman to another ;-)

    The jinx continues…. I came downstairs yesterday morning to watch qualifying, on my DVR. I clicked on the program, and got ‘delete or not’? It wouldn’t let me watch it, and froze. Rebooted my DVR and the program was gone.

    Te jinx is broken. All was well this morning. Started watching the 1/2 hour pre-race show at the time the actual race started. It means I can FF thru the commercials, and by about lap 25 I was watching it live.

    What a race from about lap 55 or so until the red flag! The restart was pretty much a boring procession though.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    325, Yorkshiremen speak plainly :D

    Agreed about the restart. Real shame Button didn’t win.

    Hamilton sounds like he thinks he’s being victimised by the FIA.

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    tweetminster Tweetminster
    Al Jazeera reporting hundreds of Al Qaeda fighters have taken control of #Yemen city, Zinjibar.

  • Tim B

    Morris Dancer @326:

    Hamilton sounds like he thinks he’s being victimised by the FIA.

     

    I think he’d like it in whiting ;-)

  • Richard Nabavi

    Nick Palmer @323:

    IMO that’s undemocratic and frankly unwise (because it narrows the space for maneouvre if they do have second thoughts about anything), but I try to report things as I see them, not as I’d like to see them.

    Don’t you think the decision to rush ahead rather than have a Royal Commission was part of the general strategy of doing unpopular stuff early in the Parliament? Nobody denies that this is part of the strategy (and all governments do it). A RC would have reported at say the end of this year, and we’d be having the argument into 2012/2013. As with public inquiries, people only accept the findings if they agreed with them anyway.

     
    I’m not sure about the ‘undemocratic’ point, since the consensus appears to be that a lot of the changes could have been made without a Bill. But even if it is, it looks to me like miscalculation rather than a deliberate attempt to bypass parliament; all the indications are that the government completely underestimated the opposition. As regards the opposition within parliament, that is understandable given that the LibDems had signed up (indeed, signed up enthusiastically) to the proposals, with Clegg signing the foreword to the White Paper:

    http://www.dh.gov.uk/prod_consum_dh/groups/dh_digitalassets/@dh/@en/@ps/documents/digitalasset/dh_117794.pdf

    As regards your second point, yes, I agree. What surprises me is not so much that they went ahead rapidly within this term – making any change at the beginning of the term is absolutely essential for any reform of the NHS, otherwise you hit the buffers of the next election and everything comes to a rapid halt as the newspapers are full of scare stories about hospital closures. My surprise is more that they tried to make any big changes in their first term.

    Incidentally, if you are right that a lot of it is going ahead anyway (and I think you probably are), that suggests the LibDems’ political tactics on this are severely flawed. It looks a bit like tuition fees all over again – make a huge fuss (and therefore ensure the issue is in the headlines for an extended period), and then fail to deliver. That would not be very smart, but maybe they think that with a bit of political legerdemain they can get credit if it goes right and no blame if it doesn’t. I doubt it, somehow.

  • wage slave

    290.

    “One person who seems to be forgotten in the NHS mess is Paul Burstow. Did he really think this would be palatable for his party?”

    Paul Burstow is a decent man who actually believes in compromise. So he traded Tory executive GP consortia against a mirage of Lib Dem democratic accountability. Problem is, he was a bit of a Sri Lankan silly mid off when they were throwing the grey cells around. Compare and contrast with Steve Webb at the DWP, or rather don’t because it is cruel to Burstow.

  • tim

    329 – The politics for the Lib Dems, and for Cameron and Osborne (who also signed the bill) has little to do with the shift from PCTs to GP consortia,.
    Dave has already conceded the point that GP consortia will involve a lot of non GPs (looking very much like PCTs, after spending £2billion on the plan) so that is all pointless anyway.

    What this is about is avoiding the blame and pinning the chaos on someone else.
    Nick wants to pin it on Dave.
    George wants to pin it on Andrew.
    The 1922 want to pin it on Nick.

  • wage slave

    259.

    “Giggs. . . .only did what he thought (and was advised) was best for him and his family ”

    Sounds like Ed Balls over Shoesmith. On his own, he

    “just didn’t have a clue WHAT to do”.

  • tim

    Number 10 have backed Andrew Lansley amid reports he could quit the Cabinet if his proposed NHS reforms are radically changed.

    “The speculation in the papers is nonsense. Andrew Lansley is doing an excellent job as Health Secretary”, a Downing Street spokesman said.

    Or alternatively, Dave talking about Lansley and his bill

    ‘Well, it’s nothing to do with him now’

    So precisely what Lansley is doing excellently is anyones guess.

  • LondonStatto

    Morris Dancer @40:

    For those who missed it, my sole tip was Button to win at 7.4, with a lay at evens.

     

    He was in to 6.2 by the time I saw your tip, but that’s still a very healthy return – many thanks :)

  • Carola

    Whatever the outcome, from here in swingvoterworld the whole thing has been a dog’s breakfast. And no one comes out of it as the dog’s something else.

  • http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com James Kelly

    318. “Will the nits shoot the messenger?”

    Not at all, it simply shows how mature they are to listen to economic advice from someone who disagrees with them. But there are plenty of economists who take the opposite view.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    F1: Red Bull had a communication balls-up, and that’s why Vettel got primes.

  • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

    334, np :)

    Such a shame he didn’t win, but that’s how it goes.

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    Whilst we’re awaiting the FIFA result [!], may I heartily recommend Paul Merton’s series on the silent film era.

    It’s absolutely cracking stuff if you’re into early movies/cinema history – intelligent, funny, lots of great footage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b011k4vx/Paul_Mertons_Birth_of_Hollywood_Episode_1/

  • fitalass

    Jon C @211:

    Shame on Cameron if he forces Lansley out. Headlines over achievement.

    Yuck

    My sentiments exactly.  

  • Trevors Den

    323 – ‘pushed through’??

    Come on then Nick Palmer – it was in your party’s manifesto.

    How would you save 20 billion from the NHS budget within 4 years?

  • Theuniondivvie

    318. dr spyn

    The ‘evolution’ of a news story with BBC Scotland, aka how to turn an interview giving a generally positive view of fiscal autonomy into a vague ‘Independence is a verra, verra bad thing’ spiel.

    Headline: “Salmond adviser Kay: Independence offers ‘little’ gain”

    Introduction to what prof said: “A key economic adviser to First Minister Alex Salmond has warned Scotland would ‘gain little’ by full independence.”

    What prof actually said: “Professor John Kay said that while the move (full independence) would ‘clearly be economically viable’, increased financial power within the Union was more likely.
    …Prof Kay argued that, while Scotland was the most prosperous part of the UK outside southeast England, there were “wide disparities” within its economy.
    ‘An independent Scotland would clearly be economically viable,’ he wrote, adding: ‘But whether Scotland, the remainder of the UK – or both – would be better off after separation is much less certain.’”

  • LondonStatto

    Morris Dancer @338:

    Such a shame he didn’t win, but that’s how it goes.

     

    From a betting POV I’d have been annoyed if he had won. I had to set up the lay before I went out for several hours, so… :)

  • Tim B

    Plato @339:

    the silent film era.

     

    The classic was Thames Television’s Hollywood by David Gill and Kevin Brownlow, narrated by James Mason.

    I saw it in the early 80s and it was fab. I have the book but its never been released on dvd.

  • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

    Plato @339

    Oh and if you want to see the most insensitive bit of early cinema – tune in at about 45mins where Birth of Nation is covered [shot entirely from the Southern perspective only 50yrs after the end of the Civil War - complete with KKK heroes riding to the rescue accompanied by Wagner's Valkeries].

  • GIN

    They’ll be some big fall out from Lewis Hamiltons post race comments. Did he really just accuse the FIA is racism?

  • Tim B

    Tim B @343:

    Thames Television’s Hollywood

     

    Details…

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_%28documentary%29

  • http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com James Kelly

    294. “Thanks 282. Paddy Power offering 4/7 no and 5/4 yes, but only regarding the result of a referendum that mentions independence. Is anyone quoting odds about independence with some attempt at a proper definition, e.g. UN membership?”

    Johnn, any referendum that mentions independence would entail sovereignty and membership of the UN. The ‘independence-lite’ possibility that has been mooted would imply a confederal relationship with the rest of the UK after independence, which would not detract from Scottish sovereignty.

    There is of course the chance of a second referendum question on devolution max, but that’s a separate issue.

  • Mike Smithson

    New thread

  • Tim B

    Plato @344:

    [shot entirely from the Southern perspective only 50yrs after the end of the Civil War - complete with KKK heroes riding to the rescue accompanied by Wagner's Valkeries].

     

    It was based on a book called The Clansman, essentially a romantic novel of the KKK, and pro-segregation

  • fitalass

    How did I miss this one at the time, its hilarious. :D
    Youtube – Iain Dale interviews Lady Margaret Thatcher