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Marf on election night

May 5th, 2011

It does look like there’ll be an exit poll

YouGov has been polling during the days asking how people have voted and I know that the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells, is at BBC TV centre from where the results programme will be broadcast.

So not long to wait.

UPDATE: Just heard that there is NO YouGov exit poll. I was adding 2 and 2 together and making five. Sorry folks.

  • More of Marf’s work can be found at LondonSketchbook.com

    • Mike Smithson
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    • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato

      another richard @295

      They did appear to leave behind a stealth heli though – reports were it was set alight – well the pix don’t show that either since it crashed into a wall and then was poorly hidden by curtains.

    • SthLondon Nick

      I think we missed an opinion poll on this. See this from No2AV:

      Final poll is from Opinium for the Evening Standard have figures of YES 36%, NO 64%. so #NO2AV, just get out and make it happen! Vote!

      http://twitter.com/VoteNoToAV/status/66226855128219648

    • chris_g00

      289.Adolf Hitler ordered a holocaust of Jews
      YES
      NO

      My tip was the tories would finish not 1st, not 2nd, but 3rd just eight days before the last General Election.
      YES
      NO

      President Obama is American.
      YES
      NO

      (the 2nd one is easy as 1 2 3 :) )

    • Andrea

      299

      Scotland is mainly tonight except for
      61 Na h-Eileanan an Iar 12:30
      71 Stirling 12:30
      13 Caithness, Sutherland & Ross 13:00
      53 Inverness & Nairn 13:00
      70 Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch 13:00
      15 Clackmannanshire & Dunblane 14:00
      19 Cowdenbeath 14:00
      27 Dunfermline 14:00
      40 Fife Mid & Glenrothes 14:00
      41 Fife North East 14:00
      55 Kirkcaldy 14:00
      102 Highlands & Islands 14:00
      105 Scotland Mid & Fife 14:30

      Wales is during the night except North Wales

      Many councils are tomorrow

    • tim

      293 – these approval ratings are hurting you aren’t they.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

    • Stars and Stripes

      296- I don’t think so. Some members of Congress claimed they’d seen the pictures but those turned out to be fakes! I haven’t heard that any members of Congress have seen the real pictures.

    • Yokel

      292. Trust me it was straight lying put out by the politicians.

      279. Champion. Thanks

    • Yellow Submarine

      Query One.

      Will Jack’s ARSE be making a pronouncement?

    • glw

      284. “Though why they’re lying I don’t know.”

      My initial belief — due to varying number of helicopters, the UAV, and the crashed stealthy Blackhawk – was that the didn’t want to disclose the truth for operational security reasons. Since then they’ve disclosed Osama wasn’t armed, his wife wasn’t used as a human shield, and there was no live video of the raid and I’m sure there are other changes. It’s no longer a matter of deliberate disinformation but a cock-up; probably due to people offering off the record briefings to big-up their knowledge and involvement, which has sown all these silly lies, which other staff then have to retract.

    • Dave B

      Plato @288
      That’s a relief. I thought he might have been injured during the Bin Laden mission.

    • IainM

      RodCrosby

      We dont expect the final Scottish election results till the Friday afternoon. Which probably means the final Referendum result will be Friday evening?

    • http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/ Morris Dancer

      F1: nyooooom!

      P1 and P2 are at 8am and 12pm tomorrow. Should be well worth watching to see whether or not the other teams have managed to close the gap to Red Bull.

    • Robert Waller

      Around 8 p.m. at my polling station in Twickenham Riverside ward, a glance at the register as I was being ticked off suggests turnout of around 20-25% so far – presumably with postal votes to be added. Business was brisk at that time.
      Likely to be a ‘yes to AV’ area.

    • Stars and Stripes

      304- You must not have been reading my posts today, tim. I said it’s surprising Obama hasn’t gotten more of a boost from this. I said earlier this week that Obama ought to be above 55% approval by the end of this week. Clearly he isn’t there. Gallup and Quinnipiac, two of the more reputable pollsters, have him at 52%. Frankly, I’m a bit surprised and pleased.

    • surbiton

      AVE IT Projection leaked. Watford relegated !!!!!

    • Beverley

      Plato @ 288 said: The Duke of Cambridge is involved in a double rescue after returning to work with the RAF just days after his wedding.

      —-

      I wonder if his mates just call him ‘Duke’? ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ccTit7AvkA about 2mins 20secs in)

    • Trevors Den

      288 – whilst the Duchess was out shopping at Waitrose …

    • SthLondon Nick

      More from the Pol Home live blog and a seat gain that will please tim:

      21:24 Getting reports of reasonably high AV turnout of students in Cambridge. Student wards in Oxford, Cambridge, Bristol and Leeds tend to elect Lib Dems on the back of votes from nearby residents, with very few students voting (and those who have have tended to vote LD). Will students, voting in the referendum, voice their anger at the Coalition by voting Labour or Green in the locals, when usually they don’t bother.

      21:06 First signs of Lib Dem disaster in working class urban areas. Reports of an almost certain Labour gain in Bristol’s estate-heavy Lawrence Hill ward, in Stephen Williams MP’s not-so-marginal Bristol West seat.

      20:54 Turnout estimate 15%-22% in Wandsworth’s Balham ward, again much much lower in inner London compared to the suburbs.

    • Jonathan

      The AV ballot paper was appropriately itself a boring affair, lacking the party logos and a grubby grey brown. I stayed awake just long enough to vote.

      I wonder, if you write YES or NO outside a box or in the wrong box, will it be counted?

    • RodCrosby

      ‘Adolf Hitler ordered a holocaust of Jews
      YES
      NO’

      not even those who believe in it can agree on that, unfortunately…

    • Andrea

      First results of the night from Sunderland?

      An exciting council….

    • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato
    • SimonStClare

      306 – “Trust me it was straight lying put out by the politicians”

      Obama can’t tell his liberal, wishy washy supporters that he gave the orders to take the SOB out..! – It has to be finessed in such a way as to be ‘acceptable’ almost cuddly, and very different from how Bush would have done it.

    • Beverley

      Sunil @ 292 said: 266/277/280. My hand hovered over “yes” too! I managed to snap out of it just in time!

      —-

      I knew I could depend on you Sunil! Now were did we leave off…..?

    • chris_g00

      293.Astonishing how Obama is managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of an almighty victory. Having watched his press secretary the other night, it’s clear the White House have major problems with personnel.

      Why couldn’t the administration simply have stonewalled, said nothing on the grounds of national security – except that Osama Bin Laden, the man who killed 3000 innocent Americans is dead.

    • Yellow Submarine

      Query Two.

      While it looks like we aren’t getting an exit poll for AV are there any exit polls for Scotland and Wales?

    • Andrea

      317 Lawrence Hill was a 3% majority in 2007…if Lab don’t take it, they will barely make 100 gains

    • Scott P
    • another richard

      Those Obama approval ratings shown that he got a small boost for a couple of days and that it is already disapating.

      And probably not going to be helped by all the White House lies.

      Now I can remember when Bush I had 90% approval ratings.

      And still lost the following election.

    • Gary Barford

      SthLondon Nick @302
      Hmmm, are the Evening Standard not breaking election law by publishing an opinion poll while polls are open?

    • Frank Booth

      Andrea – thank god they’re counting in Wales. I was thinking I might as well get an early night.

    • slackbladder

      319: ah it’s not a proper election night without a red crosby holocuast denial special….

    • Timmo

      Tory MP Greg Hands just posted this tweet

      Back home after a long day’s campaigning. More Yes voters than I expected, I cant see No winning by 28 points.

    • Ave it

      315 Ave it preview: surbiton = QPR!!!

    • IainM

      re 325 Yellow Submarine

      I havent heard of any! Maybe one of the others has!

    • TimT

      305 Stars Presumably the Intelligence Committee and Armed Forces Committee Chairs will see the evidence, if not all the committee members. There must be some congressional oversight.

    • Mark Senior

      317 Lawrence Hill in Bristol is a ward Labour won in 2005 and 2009 and the LibDems in 2007 . It would be a bad night for Labour if they did not gain it tonight .

    • Stars and Stripes

      324- “Why couldn’t the administration simply have stonewalled, said nothing on the grounds of national security – except that Osama Bin Laden, the man who killed 3000 innocent Americans is dead.”

      Sounds pretty good in retrospect, doesn’t it? It’s pretty remarkable if we can say that stonewalling would have been better than the way it played out.

    • DavidL

      I would not be surprised if SLAB lost 8 or 9 constituencies in Scotland tonight to the SNP but whether that will make much difference to the final totals is less clear. I suspect Labour will win most of these back on the lists.

      They may also pick up one or two Lib Dem seats basically leaving them as you were. The SNP will gain from the increase in constituencies and from several of the Lib Dem seats. My guess, posted earlier today SNP +6, Lab +1 tories-1, Lib Dems -7 Greens +1. Remember I was probably less than 20% out on the AV vote!

    • Joshua

      From my Lib Dem sources I’m hearing surprisingly positive things from Sheffield! Some are even going as far to say Sheffield is certain to vote Yes! I’m not convinced myself but I could see cities like Sheffield voting yes. Whereas the shires will unanimously go for a No vote.

    • surbiton

      273. “Equalising” will lose Labour 7 seats net. Labour loses 26, Tories lose 19.

      What’s the big deal ?

    • http://twitter.com/PlatoSays Plato
    • Mike Smithson

      Timmo @332:

      Back home after a long day’s campaigning. More Yes voters than I expected, I cant see No winning by 28 points.

       
      Bad news for ICM

    • Beverley

      Sunil at 340

      :D :D

      No one has ever said THAT to me before….

    • chris_g00

      328.Bush was facing Clinton – a consumate politician (even if he was a dreadful President), having devastated his own base by raising taxes. Then just for good measure along came a straight talking billionaire from Texas who in the debate defended Clinton against charges of being unpatriotic.

      This time the Republicans can choose between Donald ‘the ego’ Trump, Sarah ‘ I can see Russia from my house’ Palin & a couple of religious fundamentalists. Alas it’s not looking good.

    • Yellow Submarine

      That would have made a fun market actually. How many of the 400 odd council areas will be YES/NO and how many reporting regions?

    • oldnat

      Nytol

      Off for a few hours kip before the results come in.

    • Ave it

      OK I know you can’t handle the excitement so here it is!!!!

      SCOTLAND
      SNP = winners!!!! More seats but nowhere near overall majority! Lab possibly end up with more seats! LD meltdown and not a lot for Con either!!!

      WALES
      NOM. Labour = :lol: :lol: :lol: Con flying with constituency and regional gains!!!!

      NI
      Who cares! Actually DUP just ahead of SF. UUP and SDLP doing nothing.

      COUNCILS
      Labour fewer than 500 gains!!!!!!
      Con possibly UP on seats!!!!
      LDs = :lol:

      And most importantly….

      AV = cheerio!!!!!!!!!
      42-58 on 37% turnout!!!
      No wins in virtually all 440 voting districts!!!!

      Miliband = :lol: :lol: :lol:

    • Timmo

      In other news..Oil pprices drop 10pct today and other commodity prices also fall sharply.
      Oil under $100/barrel.
      Good news on the inflation front if the petrol companies decide to cut at the pumps.
      Could see petrol down in the £1.20 lvl a litre very quickly

    • notme

      339. This is all noise, nobody knows how anyone else has voted, especially on issues like a referendum.

      These are all guesses and counter guesses with some expectation management mushed in.

    • http://deleted ex pat

      I have some news

      1) SNP powering ahead in the North East. Will definately win Aberdeen South from the Liberals while my Labour friends tell me that the game is up FOR THEM in Aberdeen Central.

      EVEN ABERDEENSHIRE WEST IS NOT CONSIDERED SAFE WITH LIBERALS ENGAGED IN LAST MINUTE TRANSFER OF ALL TROOPS FROM SOUTH TO BANCHORY.

      The NATS look set for winning ALL North East seats with only Aberdeenshire South in the balance.

      2) Labour have given up on Clydesdale, a bell weather seat in central Scotland. My sources say that the SNP vote is up a full 10 per cent with LABOUR DOWN on 2007 even although no Liberal standing.

      3) At least TWO Labour Glasgow seats are on the slide to the NATS in addition to Southern (Nicola’s seat). They are suspected to be Kelvin and Shettleston.

      COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING NIGHT.

    • another richard

      I think we should have a seperate thread where people claiming to be in the know can post the info their ‘sources’ tell them.

      And then afterwards we can go and have a look to see who talked the most crap.

    • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902 Sunil Prasannan

      344. Beverley,

      Well it is Er*ction Night after all!
      You can be first past my “post” any time ;)

    • DavidL

      I was surprised and slightly dismayed about the number minded to vote yes at my work. I tried to explain surbiton’s points to them but they were not as easily persuaded as I was. 60:40 no feels kind of right now.

    • MODERATOR

      new thread

    • valleyboy

      I have done a Wales exit poll for You Gov today.
      Didn’t vote in referendum after though. Bit of a cock up on my part.

    • Mike Smithson

      New thread

    • Fairliered

      Turnout at 8pm was 50% and 45% in Oldnat North. Have heard of 64% turnout in Oldnat Offshore. Very positive feedback for SNP.

    • HD2

      surbiton @341:

      Yokel

       
      Presumably those numbers depend crucially on what composition of the HoC you take as your starting-point?
      Now, April 2010 or any other date over the past 25 years (or so).

      The ’20 net gain to Conservatives’ might well be an average of the last several GE results.

    • tim

      350 – All my constituency bets are SNP gains in areas near Danny Alexanders Westminster seat, that oil tax fiasco will cost the Lib Dems.
      Although they were going to get slaughtered anyway, this will be meltdown.

    • another richard

      chris

      The election has always been Obama’s to lose.

      Previously I didn’t believe it likely that he would be incompetant enough to do so.

      After the pointless lies of the last few days I’m beginning to wonder.

    • vulpus_rex

      From the people’s repbulic of Kentish Town, North London.

      To me turnout seemed higher than the GE last year, boyfriend says the it seemed the same when he went in the dead zone of the afternoon.

      At about 7pm I sent a cheeky text to remind my hom-boy friends to vote no and was staggered by the number who came back and said they had. It yes can’t get the left leaning gay vote then they are probably in trouble.

    • RodCrosby

      “President Obama is American.” Sure he’s an American. Arnold Schwarzenegger is also an American. According to the Constitution, they are American-enough to do almost anything they like – except be President of the U.S…

    • 88

      #350 Shettleston? no effing way.

      Mason in McAveety gone.

      The sky would fall in.

    • Beverley

      Sunil – your post at 340 seems to have vanished. Not my doing I assure you because it made me laugh.

      Perhaps OGH disapproves?

    • minnieroyle

      just been and done my duty in Manchesters most marginal ward,given the low level leafleting and lack of window posters i was expecting a low turnout but a look at the register suggests a healthy turnout

    • limesmoothie

      363

      Well, they’ve taken Glasgow East before but I think it might be a bridge too far.

    • Peter from Putney

      Just waiting for Ave it’s prediction before we go late night shopping at Tesco, New Malden.

    • afleitch

      366.

      Salmond was in Shettleston yesterday. I’ve heard it said there could be an upset there….or at least a close run thing.

    • valleyboy

      My prediction is that QPR will be deducted 15 points(hopefully) and Cardiff will be promoted as runners up.

    • Peter from Putney

      Mike – does the rumoured YouGov exit poll include their findings on the AV referendum?

    • Peter from Putney

      369 Don’t Cardiff have their own problems as referred to on PB earlier today?

      I think you’re right about QPR though – I laid them heavily last night against being promoted at 2/7 with betfair.
      I feel sure the FA will take a hard line – all these situations are precedent setting.

    • valleyboy

      371
      Haven’t seen the earlier post.
      PFP. The shambolic performance the other evening was compounded by stories of players being out on the booze the night before.Fans are not happy.

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