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SNP/PLAID supporters help YES to a 6 point lead

April 11th, 2011
Latest AV referendum polls using the question that’s on the ballot Date YES % NO % Methodology note – all figures re-percentaged to show decided voters only
Angus Reid/ 10/04/11 53 (+2) 47 (-2) No turnout weighting. Comparison with last poll for AR on March 20. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. Online. The”certain to vote split was 52.5 YES to 47.5% NO
YouGov/Sun Times 08/04/11 51 (-1) 49 (+1) Findings weighted according to likelihood to vote. Comparisons are with last poll on April 1. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.
ComRes/Indy on Sunday 09/03/11 50 50 Shows shares from ComRes data-set not press release. Onlne
Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 55 45 Phone poll with only those “certain to vote” included.
ICM/Guardian 20/02/11 51 49 Phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting

42 percent say they are “certain to vote”

There’s a new Angus Reid referendum poll just out which has YES moving up a couple of points since the last survey from the Canadian online firm on March 20th. These are not big changes and the shares, taking just decided voters only, are very much in line with the other pollsters.

Note the table above only features those surveys where the actual wording on the ballot was put – so last week’s Populus poll for the Times is excluded. It does seem as though the official wording gives a little bit of help to YES.

What’s interesting, especially as the election takes place on the same day as the devolved general elections in Scotland and Wales, is that Angus Reid have included splits for SNP and Plaid voters. The former is going for YES by a ratio of three to one. The Welsh sub-sample shows an even bigger margin but with a minute sample size.

Another trend is that those Lib Dem voters from the general election who have switched to Labour appear to have helped boost YES.

Amongst current Labour voters YES has a comfortable lead while amongst those who voted for Brown’s party last May NO is ahead.

A total of 42% of the Angus Reid sample said they were “certain to vote”.

Mike Smithson