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Does the calendar give YES a slight edge?

March 8th, 2011
The build-up to polling day Status
Thursday 21 April 2011 Normal working day
Friday 22 April 2011 Good Friday: Long holiday weekend
Saturday 23 April 2011 Long holiday weekend
Sunday 24 April 2011 East Sunday: Long holiday weekend
Monday 25 April 2011 East Monday: Long holiday weekend
Tuesday 26 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week
Wednesday 27 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week
Thursday 28 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week
Friday 29 April 2011 Royal Wedding: public holiday
Saturday 30 April 2011 Long holiday weekend
Sunday 1 May 2011 Long holiday weekend
Monday 2 May 2011 Public holiday: Long holiday weekend
Tuesday 3 May 2011 Normal working day
Wednesday 4 May 2011 Normal working day
Thursday 5 May 2011 Polling day

When’s the referendum campaign going to take place?

One of the major factors that could impact on voting in the elections on May 5th is what’s going to be happening in the final fortnight.

Thanks to the juxtaposition of Easter taking place on its latest possible date and the Royal Wedding there’s going to be precious little time for campaigning.

And even on normal days in the penultimate week large parts of the media are going to be more concerned with the things like the design of the wedding dress than the relative merits of first past the post and the alternative vote.

The outside world, and I suppose we should be relieved by this, does not mirror PB!

The opportunities for both camps to get their messages over are going to be quite limited. The question is which side will benefit most?

From the polls that have measured certainty to vote it seems that YES has a slight edge in voter motivation. NO’s big potential is amongst the C2s/Ds/Es but getting them out to the polling stations is going to be that much harder – particularly where no simultaneous elections are taking place.

In a very tight election these factors could be crucial.

Mike Smithson