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YES to AV opens up a 10 point lead with ComRes

February 12th, 2011
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording
ComRes/Indy on Sunday 10/02/11 40 (+4) 30 (nc) Actual wording on the ballot
YouGov/Sun 07/02/11 38 (+6) 39 (-2) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition
Angus Reid/ 25/01/11 37 21 Actual wording on the ballot
ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot

And Labour moves up further with ComRes online

Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD %
ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 10/02/11 36 42 11
ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10
ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 13/01/11 36 40 10
ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12
ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 17/12/10 37 39 11
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12
ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16

A new ComRes online poll tonight for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror has goodish news for Labour on Westminster voting intention and more positive data for the YES side in the referendum campaign.

YES now has a ComRes lead of 10 points and the trend is in line with this week’s YouGov referendum poll. Quite what’s driving this is hard to day but the referendum is getting substantially more news coverage due to Labour’s filibuster in the Lords.

What might be worrying the NO campaign is that as more people move from don’t know to expressing a specific choice they are more likely to go into the YES column than the No one.

The VI numbers are all within the margin of error though Labour will be pleased to see movement compared with the last Comres online poll. Given that ComRes now operates an online as well as a phone polling series its important to make comparisons with the last survey using the same methodology.

YouGov UPDATE: The daily poll for the Sunday Times has CON 35: LAB 35: LD 9. This is the first time in any poll since the election that Labour has exceeded the combined coalition partners.

Mike Smithson