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News of a new poll and OES polling rumours

January 7th, 2011

Could there be more than one by-election poll?

There’ve been a lot of rumours about amongst campaigners in Oldham East & Saddleworth that several by-election polls might be in the offing.

One suggested that a YouGov OES survey was about to come out – a rumour that has been knocked on the head by the firm’s deputy head of political polling, Anthony Wells.

Andrew Hawkins of ComRes, which has carried out surveys at other by-elections, tells me that his firm is not doing a poll but I’ve not been able to get any information by any other pollster.

We do know that the Survation phone poll, reported a few days ago, will be out this weekend.

Meanwhile there’s a new Angus Reid poll of national voting intentions that will bring some relief to the yellows.

Poll Date CON % LAB % LD %
Angus Reid/ 06/01/11 35 40 12
Angus Reid/ 20/12/10 35 41 9
Angus Reid/ 29/11/10 35 40 13
Angus Reid/ 28/10/10 35 37 15
Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16

This is the first non-YouGov poll of the year. Angus Reid’s mode of operation has changed markedly since it’s disappointing result at the general election. Now it has records from polls taken immediately after May 6th of how those on its panel said they had voted. It was the firm’s past vote weightings that created so many problems ahead of the general election.

Mike Smithson