The hung parliament odds get tighter

April 23rd, 2010

Majority betting	NOM	CON	LAB	OTH/LD
Ladbrokes	8/13	6/4	16/1	20/1
Political Smarkets	60%	36%	6%	2%

Mike Smithson

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236 comments to “The hung parliament odds get tighter”

First?
by Steve Guy April 23rd, 2010 at 20:13
That 6/4 Tory majority looks mighty tempting….
by Marquee Mark April 23rd, 2010 at 20:14
FPT - 569 - It is a completely defensive strategy, but I think it is was one they have had mapped out even before the Cleggasm.

I’m not sure it would be any different if Tories were 10 points ahead and looking good for a majority. Then they would still employ it hoping they managed to squeeze a Hung Parliament or at least not get wiped out due to a Gordo meltdown. I believe that even though his behaviour is well reported, there are still large numbers of people that won’t believe it unless they saw it with their own eyes, the Labour spinners just can’t afford that to happen.
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 20:14
Betfair is slightly erratic at the mo’. JokeW is correct; we should wait until Sunday before looking into our tea-leaves!
by Fluffy Thoughts April 23rd, 2010 at 20:15
FPT on Sky flashing a poll up on their ticker,

Remember Sky’s motto…Never wrong for long!
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 20:15
2. Go to Betfair Mark, you can get around 15/8 there for a Tory majority.
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:16
wouldnt surprise me if Guido had the goods on Balls and waited for the right time to drop it, he seems to me to be someone who can play the long game.

He’s been hinting for a while that Balls will definitely not keep his seat.
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:16
These ComRes results(below) post- the second debate are interesting. Although Clegg is deemed to have just shaved the second debate as opposed to winning the first one hands down, there is a slight further drift from Tories to Lib Dem - and Clegg is considered most honest.

Voting intention after last week’s debate
Which party would you vote for?

Conservative
36%
Labour
24%
Lib Dem
35%
Other
5%

Voting intention after this week’s debate
Which party would you vote for?

Conservative
35%
Labour
24%
Lib Dem
36%
Other
5%

Which party leader do you think gave the most honest answers in the debate tonight?

Brown
23%
Cameron
29%
Clegg
43%
None/DK
5%
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 20:16
2 - Marquee Mark, you can get 15/8 on Betfair (I know, because I’m offering it).
by antifrank April 23rd, 2010 at 20:17
Boris getting down with the kids
by Slackbladder April 23rd, 2010 at 20:17
Rightly so. Although a Tory majority is certainly not impossible, it would require a shift from the situation currently expressed by the polls. I think there will be a shift, but as to in which direction and how far, I’ve got no real idea. Things will change between now and polling day, but as things stand now, the polls point (to me at least) towards a hung parliament with Conservatives as largest party.

Wouldn’t bet on it at the moment, personally - things are way too volatile for a part-timer like me. I’ve got plenty of respect for the big betters who risk cash in the current uncertain climate.
by Andy Cooke April 23rd, 2010 at 20:18
This is AWESOME!!

While we were all watching the debate last night, more4 were broadcasting The Daily Show featuring the Leaders debates!

Catch it here while you still can…

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-daily-show-with-jon-stewart/4od#3055734
by Scott P April 23rd, 2010 at 20:18
For what it’s worth, I think that No Overall Majority is grossly underpriced. Unless the polls move sharply in one direction or another, we’re in very hung Parliament territory. And why should they?
by antifrank April 23rd, 2010 at 20:19
11 Any thoughts on 277 FPT.
by Punter April 23rd, 2010 at 20:19
2 - Betfred have 15/8

FPT - Can people please stop posting fake poll results.
by tim April 23rd, 2010 at 20:19
of course they are this election is almost over.

And its a draw….
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:20
I suspect the YG numbers aren’t pukka for the Tories tonight; sometimes when they are the Sun leaks them a bit early. But that’s not always the case, to be fair.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 20:20
I think it will be interesting to see how Cameron withstands Paxo tonight. He’s not always good under pressure and tried to duck this one.
by Steve Guy April 23rd, 2010 at 20:20
15 - In fairness, tim, I think the posters were not intending to deceive or were as misled as the rest of us.
by antifrank April 23rd, 2010 at 20:21
Repost FPT (mainly done because I saw some apocalyptic posts on Tory prospects under AV):

If the Lib Dems do poll better than Labour in the election itself (bearing in mind that there’s a long way yet and we don’t know how the position will change over the next few days, let alone the next fortnight) and fall far short of second place in seats, then I’d think that the call for a change to the voting system will be very strong. Many of the Lib Dem voters would be very sore at the injustice, and I think that the electorate is more impatient and volatile now than in the Alliance days.

My own preference (should FPTP be jettisoned) would be for STV with smallish (3 member) constituencies. A step towards proportionality without always sacrificing majority government for permanent coalitions.
I dislike AV - if you are going to alter the voting system due to disproportionality, it’s surely obtuse to move to one which would frequently produce greater disproprtionality towards the winner. nevertheless, the proclamations of Tory doom should this come about are hugely overblown - from the Jenkins report, combined plus the BES results for 1983 and 1987, it’s evident that only the scale of the wins since 1979 would have changed (usually in favour of the winner) -the Tories would have won landslides in 1983 and 1987 regardless (and Labour would have been annihilated in 1983 to a far greater extent than they were under FPTP), won a majority in 1992 and Labour would have won landslides in 1997 and 2001 (I haven’t got the data on 2005, but it’s fairly obvious that they’d have won a majority then.
AV+. Well, I dislike the fact that you’d have two classes of politicians and it’s a bodge job to try to fix the flaws in AV (why not have FPTP+ instead - just as simple?)
Party lists are an abomination democratically (well, open lists not so much, but closed lists are detestable things).

End of meander. We return you to your scheduled entertainment.
by Andy Cooke April 23rd, 2010 at 20:21
A special gift for Mark Senior and OGH from Sir Malcolm Rifkind…

“No responsible party who aspires to government can rule out tax rises in the current environment,” says Sir Malcolm Rifkind, when asked whether the Tories might raise VAT - something leader David Cameron fails to rule out in his interview with Jeremy Paxman. The ex-foreign secretary says Nick Clegg’s party have been out of power since 1922 because “virtually none of the public wanted to vote for them in the past 100 years”.
by Scott P April 23rd, 2010 at 20:21
16 does that mean extra time or a penalty shootout (or more likely a replay in October)?
by Politicalhistorian April 23rd, 2010 at 20:21
There is one observation that I noted today, but I’m not sure whether this good or bad news.

Nick Clegg is showing signs of cracking up under the pressures of his new situation.

This is not uncommon phenomena and the majority of us would disintegrate under the kind of pressure opposition leaders can be subjected to when power is within there grasp.
by thinker April 23rd, 2010 at 20:21
From what I can gather (Leaks) a majority of the paxo interview is about Hung Parliament and the Liberals rather then policy.It was recorded at 4pm earlier today.
by Patrick April 23rd, 2010 at 20:22
Could be that The Sun will drop them after Cameron’s paxman thing, they may be holding it back for that.
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:22
13. Agree with that antifrank. If I were wanting to be betting on a Tory majority I would prefer to be taking the 7/2 on 325-349 Conservative seats on offer at Betfair. It doesn’t cover all eventualities of a Conservative majority, but if they are to get a majority from this position, I can’t think it will be higher than 50 seats.
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:23
Evening all. No polls tonight then? I’m nursing a nasty hangover and there’s nothing to talk about? I guess I am the only one forecasting a bit of a Labour uptick? I don’t know, it just seemed in my drunken stupor last night that he had a decent debate.
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:24
[23] No, he’s not and that is the second time you have posted the same nonsense- at least have the sense to alter the form of words if you want your rampant astroturfing to be less obvious.
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 20:25
YouGov : http://today.yougov.co.uk/

Seems to be C 34 L 29 LD 28
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 20:28
27. He DID have a decent debate (for him) Bobajob. The problem is that most of that good work was undone by leafletgate.
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:28
strange sense of lull before some kind of dramatic news…
by alex s. April 23rd, 2010 at 20:28
Punter @14

The Benedict Brogan piece on Conservatives on course for unexpected Labour gains whilst not knowing exactly why, or what’s going on?

Very interesting. The Tories need a good performance in the North West, and sadly pollsters don’t provide that kind of detail, so we have no way of corroborating it or judging whether it’s just spin. Further evidence that the election is just getting less and less predictable.

Fascinating, though. If it keeps going like this, then if pollsters want reliable data that can be of use for seat calculations for subsequent elections, then they’re going to have to find agreed regions within GB that all tend to swing similarly, follow them consitently and demographically weight them (like state-by-state sampling in the US)
by Andy Cooke April 23rd, 2010 at 20:28
29 - Wasn’t that yesterdays?
by James Burdett April 23rd, 2010 at 20:29
29 That was yesterday’s pre-debate figures….
by jsfl April 23rd, 2010 at 20:29
29 That is yesterday’s figures
by Mark Senior April 23rd, 2010 at 20:29
29 - that looks like yesterday’s…
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 20:29
29- Cicero

That’s yesterday’s numbers
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:30
28. That was yesterdays result Cicero.
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:30
All together now!!
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:30
Am I right if Labour are getting 29% that includes Scotland what would that figure equate to if Scotland was taken out of the equation (roughly)
by Patrick April 23rd, 2010 at 20:30
[38] yes sorry- my browser had trouble loading the page
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 20:32
Anyone else want to tell Cicero?

by jsfl April 23rd, 2010 at 20:32
I’m impressed with the degree of tragic nerdiness in that so many of us said that in pretty much one voice without having to look it up
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 20:32
Cicero,thats tommorows numbers
by saddo April 23rd, 2010 at 20:32
Hasve Camerons cheeks joined the RED team?
by Big John April 23rd, 2010 at 20:33
33-37

Love your choral posts.
by Malcolm April 23rd, 2010 at 20:34
32 Yes the whole electoral map looks totally in flux. Thiscould be an election for staying away from the spreads and going by individual seats for that reason.
by Punter April 23rd, 2010 at 20:34
Blushing boy tied in knots

He is not PM material
by Big John April 23rd, 2010 at 20:35
DAVE being shafted by packo on bbc1…more watching now than yesterdays debate on sky.
by jojo April 23rd, 2010 at 20:36
Punter

Did you ever roll in to Fermanagh South Tyrone?
by Yokel April 23rd, 2010 at 20:36
43. @saddo lol
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:36
Bet he wishes he’s stayed as Chicken Dave rather than switching to Desperate Dave
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:37
Cameron looks to be wearing an old shirt where his right-hand collar has been rather badly ironed!
by Marquee Mark April 23rd, 2010 at 20:37
Damn, forgot it had started, can’t stand Eastenders so refuse to put it on!
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 20:37
Big John @47
If you want to be taken seriously you really need to do far better than that.
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:37
Dave just LOVES comparing UK to Greece doesn’t he - sends out a great message to the markets !
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:38
The Kraken Awakes @54
Was is it an accurate comparison?
Feel free to answer.
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:39
48 Looks like one to bet late in the day if it is possible to get any sense of how much pressure is being put on the SDLP in the seat. Looks like it will get ugly.
by Punter April 23rd, 2010 at 20:39
Poor Dave, lack of sleep and out of his depth.
by tim April 23rd, 2010 at 20:39
Saddo @ 3:32 pm (PB mobile time)

”Cicero,thats tommorows numbers”

Best PB post ever!
by Pong April 23rd, 2010 at 20:40
is it me or is cameron going bald?
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:40
Cameron forceful and calm.
by Jonesy April 23rd, 2010 at 20:40
54 nah its cleverly seeding a message Kraken, he’s planting the image, if you don’t vote for me, you’ll end up like Greece and very clever considering Greece just went today begging for help.
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:40
Political smears, American style… a Pennsylvania state representative has accused her primary opponent of being straight, contradicting his claims of being bisexual:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/91791329.html
by Stars and Stripes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:40
don(the other one) @49

Agree - Cameron is facing a far more robust Paxman than Clegg did last week - glad Paxman is over his cold….hope it does not came back before Brown…
by CarlottaVance April 23rd, 2010 at 20:41
Big John @47

Big John if you had bothered to take a look outside the bunker this week you would have noted the sun was shining and Cameron has been out in it quite a bit. I think he’s caught a bit of sun…..
by jsfl April 23rd, 2010 at 20:42
Does anybody know when Gordon is doing the paxo thang.
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:42
Labourman, I thought the same about his hairline last night. Cameron is doing fine with Paxman. He is hardly drowning. Some of these Labour trolls need to do better.
by Martin Kinsella April 23rd, 2010 at 20:42
Hilarious Labour people on here. Cameron is doing very well.
by Jonesy April 23rd, 2010 at 20:42
65 - Monday.
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 20:43
oracle, thanks.
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:43
CarlottaVance @63:

Agree - Cameron is facing a far more robust Paxman than Clegg did last week - glad Paxman is over his cold….hope it does not came back before Brown…

Yes.
by ChristinaD April 23rd, 2010 at 20:44
I think in in 5 years Cameron will be fully bald!
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:44
Cam’s got a good slot with Paxman anyway - I.E, up against Coronation Street.
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 20:44
61 The cut backs being made in Greece are far bigger than any party over here is suggesting and still they’re needing more emergency loans !
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
cameron being very evasive at the moment…
by Dan Smith April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
Cameron repeatedly failing to answer any specifics on cuts.
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
Friday night at half 8 - it’s only us PB political geeks and the party trolls watching this Everyone else is doing summat more exciting. Cameron holding his own and don’t think his hair issues are likely to be an issue in the polling booth!
by Rich April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
Paxman is never very good at interviewing LibDems, he seems to have complete contempt for them, as though they are an irrelevant waste of time. The interview with Clegg last week was the softest I’ve ever seen him conduct, though he was ill I suppose.
by chris_g00 April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
71. Maybe he’ll have a hair transplant. ;
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
God it must be dull if the Bunker Bots are wittering about hairline.
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 20:45
Cameron very prime ministerial. He is dealing with Paxo very well indeed. Assured, concise and very calm.
by terry middleton April 23rd, 2010 at 20:46
Patrick @40:

…that includes Scotland what would that figure equate to if Scotland was taken out of the equation…?

FREE-EE-EE-DOM!!!
by Fluffy Thoughts April 23rd, 2010 at 20:46
Lets all play the bots game.

Cameron destroying Paxman! Make him Emperor of the World! Yeh!
by astateofdenmark April 23rd, 2010 at 20:46
59.

“is it me or is cameron going bald?”

For heaven’s sake!!!!

The intricate knitting over the back of his pate has been obvious for years.
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
An excellent performance from Cameron under some boorish questioning.
by fr April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
Why do politicians on the right give interviews to that rabid left wing fanatic Paxman.

That man has never given a fair interview to Tory MP in his entire career.

I seen him wink and nod in segments when he presents a left wing snitch up.

He is pompous pile whose diseased brain cell are stigmatised by his petty left wing bigotry and prejudices.

He should have been sacked or pushed into retirement a decade or so ago.

Asshole presenter
by thinker April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
The market is highly volatile, with major swings in opinion happening daily.

The main part of the Lib Dem surge has been to bury Labour and Others.

But they have not buried Cameron.

It is coming down to a battle between the dream and the reality replacement for Labour.

It is going to be easier for Cameron to fix his presentational deficit to carry his excellent product, than for Clegg to make his product fit for purpose (i.e.government), despite superb marketing. That’s why the Conservatives will win a majority.

Also events are moving fast internationally, with the Polish coup d’etat gradually being taken in, and the implied threat to Europe from Russia coming into the national psyche.

Fear is a great motivator.

Do we really want to get rid of Trident just as Putin, in cooperation with Polish europhiles, has murdered all Poland’s military leadership who wanted an alliance with the US, all the country’s central bankers who wanted the zloty to devalue against the euro, and the country’s anti-federalist President?

The Euro is said to be rescued this evening. But on Monday reality will return once more. Clegg’s policy of joining a crumbling financial experiment is not going to look too good when it does.

Clegg is trying to run with his ‘homophobes, racists and anti-Semites’ lines to attack the assassinated partners of the Conservatives in the EU. But Cleggy, old chap, they’re all dead. Can’t you get it still? Russia is getting ready to push the US out of Europe, just as Obama is showing he cares little about the place. Try to catch up, or we’ll be micemeat too. It’s Cameron for me, life, freedom and a future.
by Tapestry April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
Dave says he is going to be asking men to retire a year later from 2016. Does that mean it will be optional?

Also, if they are going to be delaying retirement by a year, does this not mean there will be a big spike in unemployment?
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
76. Indeed. Most people are out at the pub. Most people that are in are watching Corrie. Cam couldn’t have got a better slot in which to get Paxman over and done with.
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 20:47
76

ASK MIKE SMITHSON THAT!!

he is convinced the main reaso why people don’t get elected is that they are bald

He considers this a fact!
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
57 tim

Poor Dave, lack of sleep.

Well he seems to have woken you up.

Where have you been?
by Seth O. Logue April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
Dave is targetting the North for cuts - that’ll go down well up there
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate…
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
Politically astute naming Northern Ireland and North East England where he holds no seats!
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
59 Yeah I have thought for a while Cameron is going bald fairly quickly - hazard of age and stress!
by BigBadJohn April 23rd, 2010 at 20:48
Sun Election Sun_Election

Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate…
by MK April 23rd, 2010 at 20:49
Sun_Election tw@tter

Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate… 2 minutes ago via web
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 20:49
It is not possible for Cameron to go into the specifics on cuts until he has actually seen the depth of the mire we are in.
Dave is doing very well.
by terry middleton April 23rd, 2010 at 20:49
you guys are pathetic

paxman asking cameron what will be cut under the tories, and yet its “boorish questioning”, “left wing fanatic” blah blah blah

why doesn’t smithson ban these fools? ruins the credibility of the site
by Dan Smith April 23rd, 2010 at 20:49
Sun_Election Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate…
by aston April 23rd, 2010 at 20:50
Sun_Election

Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate…
by ToneyBaloney April 23rd, 2010 at 20:50
Well it just means the Lib Dems haven’t increased….
by Slackbladder April 23rd, 2010 at 20:50
I still expect LDs to be up a bit, though. I’d be amazed if they’ve gone down - Clegg still seemed to come over well to a lot of people.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 20:50
95/96 - What an odd thing to tweet.
by Signifficant April 23rd, 2010 at 20:50
96 Yes well that could mean anything - they’d be on 45% if they had
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll reveals that Nick Clegg has failed to repeat his poll surge after the second leaders debate
by GrahamH April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Dan Smith @98
Dan, when you had the self awareness bypass, did it hurt?
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
[86] Its the voices again isn’t Tapestry? Just remember what the doctor said: they are not real you know.
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
thinker @78:

Asshole presenter

He’s also shorter than one might imagine (saw him a a Garden Party once) and he’s giving Cameron a good grilling - which Cameron is handling well - look forward to similar robustness with Broon - pity we didn’t get it before the Cleggasm….
by CarlottaVance April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Sun_Election: Tonight's Sun/YouGov poll: first taken after the 2nd leaders debate - Cons 34% (nc), Lab 29% (nc), Lib Dems 29% (up 1), Others 8% (down 1).
by Gabble April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
as usual frantic levels of spinning going on here, with an inbuilt tory majority…
by alex s. April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll: first taken after the 2nd leaders debate - Cons 34% (nc), Lab 29% (nc), Lib Dems 29% (up 1), Others 8% (down 1).
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
That doesn’t mean much - he went up 8 points!!

If he went up 6 points to the mid 30’s he wouldn’t have repeated the surge.
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Tonight’s Sun/YouGov poll: first taken after the 2nd leaders debate - Cons 34% (nc), Lab 29% (nc), Lib Dems 29% (up 1), Others 8% (down 1).
by Rich April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
97 - I do wish Cameron would remind Paxman, and indeed Brown next week, that because Brown refused to have a Comprehensive Spending Review before the election, nobody really knows where the money is.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 20:51
Would have been unrealistic to expect Clegg to gain ANOTHER 10-12 points and repeat his surge from last week.
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
Was anyone serious expecting Clegg to repeat his poll surge? Hardly anyone was watching. Those who were saw Clegg witnessed his complete destruction by Cameron.
by Michael Branch April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
Very carefully worded Sun press release. Clegg hasn’t put on 10 points then ?!?
by Jack W April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
Paxo truly cannot understand business. When Cameron mentioned growing the private sector, he frowned and said, “You mean government spending through the private sector ?”
by fr April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
92 etc We discussed that at around 7 o’clock on the previous thread .
by Mark Senior April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
In that case I expect that the poll hasn’t moved much. Maybe Labour up a point or something else MOE.
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
Jonesy, problem is these Labour guys are missing the point about where politics is going. They are just too tribal. It does not matter what Dave says they will rubbish him as they (and the Tory bots here) did with Clegg. It is a shame tim is such a jerk as his betting posts are very sage and illuminating.
by Martin Kinsella April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
87 - They can still retire, they just wont get the state pension for another year
by Rob D April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
56. the opportunity has possibly gone. The SDLP are reported to be very firm. Powers made a horlicks on Connors odds initially. You couldnt get much on but it was enough.

South Belfast looks a stormer. The UUP and DUP are cutting it fine on a unity candidate. The question is whether one can collapse the others vote.

As it stands the Tories could have an additional 2 seats on their total as Reg Empey is fighting a very winnable seat in South Antrim. He’s also fighting for his leadership…
by Yokel April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
YouGov = LABOUR LARGEST PARTY!!!!!!!!!

CON 250 seats (+52)
LAB 276 seats (-80)
LIB 93 seats (+31)

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
by Gabble April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
109 That’s OK for Clegg - a week of smears and lies and still up around 30%
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
As you were then.
by Slackbladder April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
86.

“It’s Cameron for me, life, freedom and a future.”

How IS the weather on Neptune?
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 20:52
Tapestry @86:

Do we really want to get rid of Trident just as Putin, in cooperation with Polish europhiles, has murdered all Poland’s military leadership….

Go away. Grow up.
by Fluffy Thoughts April 23rd, 2010 at 20:53
All MOE then, the debate did nothing…..yet.

however good for Cameron, he lost nothing.
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:53
99 et al - so Nick’s not added 10% in the last week. Quelle surprise!
by frank April 23rd, 2010 at 20:53
Sun YouGov

Con 34 unchanged
LD 29 (up 1)
Lab 29 unchanged
others 8 (down 1)

and the Sun makes this out to be bad for Clegg??????? He’ll be thrilled to have sustained the LDs wave this far ….
by Nick April 23rd, 2010 at 20:53
Cameron has one shot left!!!

Still only a handful of votes better than howard.

LABOUR WIN MOST SEATS!!
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:53
Cameron handling the “inequality” trap by Paxman very well indeed. Inheritance tax question by Paxman looks like a trap, but Cameron handles it superbly
by terry middleton April 23rd, 2010 at 20:54
101 - Frankly, today’s poll reflects yesterday’s press more than anything.

I also can’t believe they have closed this poll at the usual time, it’s done pretty much entirely during the working day, as I feared.
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 20:54
thinker @85

thinker - anything but I would say.
by Malcolm April 23rd, 2010 at 20:54
Have to say Cameron is doing very well. Paxman just can’t hide his own prejudices can he?
by Andy T April 23rd, 2010 at 20:54
Will take a few days for any changes to move, i think on this.

You Gov normally takes a few days to shift around.
by lauranceallen April 23rd, 2010 at 20:54
So it’s 34/29/29. So the Liberals climb 1pt and the Sun tweet that? Tories going nowhere. Who expected another 8-9 surge for the Liberals? Tory smears fail. LibLab majority?
by Bobajob April 23rd, 2010 at 20:55
As a Lib Dem I expected us to plummet after the papaers this week
29% seems amasing to me
by Peter April 23rd, 2010 at 20:55
98- Dan Smith

Are you sure that the credibility of the site is much more preserved by comments like:
Hasve Camerons cheeks joined the RED team?
by Big John April 23rd, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Bet he wishes he’s stayed as Chicken Dave rather than switching to Desperate Dave
by The Kraken Awakes April 23rd, 2010 at 8:37 pm
is it me or is cameron going bald?
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 8:40 pm

And so on and so on…

This thread is a bit like PMQ threads were: full of partisan spinning with people describing what they want to see.
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:55
lauranceallen

WHAT THE F£CK

CAMERON IS ON 34% - SUCK IT UP TORYS
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
Mmmm. Let’s not forget that the last minute deciders generally plump in the last few days, disproportionally for the LD’s.
by reflecting April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
The second debate never was going to move the polls much.

1. It was about issues that the public generally finds boring.

2. It was on SKY and got much lower viewing figures.

3. The media basically decided it was a tie.

Its all set up nicely for Cam to be the Comeback Kid after the third debate.
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
Last non Yougov poll was three days ago, what are they playing at?
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
Smearing Conservatives and their press friends fail to stop libDem support rising .
by Mark Senior April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
Cameron has completely dominated Paxman in this prime-time interview. Great job, could be a gamechanger this.
by Michael Branch April 23rd, 2010 at 20:56
Dan Smith @98:

why doesn’t smithson ban these fools?

Maybe because Mike is a liberal in fact, not fiction? Only muppets scream ban ‘em, ban ‘em Mister Smithson; nasty posters.
by Fluffy Thoughts April 23rd, 2010 at 20:57
116. So, the result of Clegg being “completely destroyed” by Cameron in the debate is that the LD’s close the gap by 1%.

If Cameron continues to completely destroy Clegg at the same rate, the LibDems will have a 7 point lead by GE Day!
by budgie April 23rd, 2010 at 20:57
I wish Dave would stop lying about more 20 - 23 week fetuses surviving.
by tim April 23rd, 2010 at 20:57
“Those who were saw Clegg witnessed his complete destruction by Cameron.”

You didn’t see the post debate polls then?

Or maybe you did, which makes what you said just barmy!
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 20:57
Can some perleeeeeaaaase point out to Gabble in words of one syllable that UNS ain’t relevant no more!
by Rich April 23rd, 2010 at 20:57
Yes — woeful spinning by the Sun. It’s pitiful now.
by Brjwalker@gmail.com April 23rd, 2010 at 20:58
146. Doubt it. Nobody in their right mind will be watching this.
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 20:58
A hung parliament leading to a Lib-Lab pact may not be such a bad thing for Cameron but a disaster for the country.

It is December 2011. Growth is zero. The pound is at parity with the Euro. We are just about to go cap in hand to the IMF as our net debt heads towards a trillion pounds. There is disquiet amongst some of the ex members of Labour Cabinet after some have been displaced to accommodate the LibDems. The LibDems and Labour have fallen out big time. Cable can’t work with Brown God forbid this happens. It would take 15 years to recover.

A vote of no confidence, Labour has to call an election, or Clegg and his acolytes stitch up some sort of sweetheart deal with Cameron.

Warning: My Crystal Ball is usually defective.
by Tub of Lard April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
tim @149

Ca canny on this subject right now.
by ChristinaD April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
Professionally handled. Nothing to frighten the horses, which with paxo is a decent result.
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
146 oh give over gamechange

Jesus H Christ - its friday night no one but hacks is watching and it isn’t even a great perforamce.

you tories are so desperate for literally *ANYTHING* its embaressing!
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
While navel gazing political poll-watchers worry about what will happen to Nick Clegg’s surge next week, and their various bets, some of you might want to dedicate ten minutes of your time this weekend to watching a video on youtube, made on the day of Kazynski’s funeral. One day, once the world wakes up, this video will be seen as an important historical document. Someone has got it, and has made available in an honest manner the awful truth of what has happened to Poland.

Either the Polish President, central bank and armed forces were decapitated in a well-planned coup d’etat or they weren’t. There’s no point just clicking on this link and quickly dismissing the contents of what is being said here without watching the and listening to the words of the presenter. If you want to make up your mind, watch the video and then dismiss the report. The threat from Russia and its collaboration with a federal EU could not be more serious to British freedom, if this is correct. Surely this is worth a mere ten minutes of your time. Your betting losses might be much smaller if you get what’s happening before the bookies do.

http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/04/poles-smell-rat.html
by Tapestry April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
131.

While I do not trust this poll any more than any other, it is intriguing what this sort of result might throw out in terms of individual constituencies. Sefton Central, for example, where the Lib Dems and Tories are neck and neck in local government terms, might just see a result which leaves Mad Nad still clutching her crown as the Commons’ dumbest Mare. St Albans, where I shall be dining and dancing with members of the Conservative Executive Committee shortly, should see Mr Walkington fairly safely ensconced.
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
Abortion question - Cameron very sound on it, and the question about what faith schools can yeach exactly in line with guidelines recommended by Catholic education Service.

Well done, Dave.
by terry Middleton April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
117 Jack W Re Wales I agree with that.
by Punter April 23rd, 2010 at 20:59
Michael Branch @110:

Cameron has completely dominated Paxman in this prime-time interview. Great job, could be a gamechanger this.

Yes - lets see how Broon does next week….
by CarlottaVance April 23rd, 2010 at 21:00
Attempt to be unbiased here. I thought Cameron did a pretty good job actually. Probably about the same as Clegg did, but a bit more intense - out of concentration I think - where Clegg looked more relaxed. But it wasn’t a bad performance at all really. He’s very plummy, but that aside did well.

Paxman picks holes and it always looks tough. So not bad. Not bad at all.

Biggest problem was arguably that it has to be one of the most boring interviews I think I’ve ever watched
I doubt the viewing figures will be high!
by John April 23rd, 2010 at 21:00
Sun YouGov

Con 34 unchanged
LD 29 (up 1)
Lab 29 unchanged
others 8 (down 1)
by GrahamH April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
Very pleasing YouGov for the Lib Dems.
by Jack Peterson April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
149 tim..I respect your views but babies can survive at 23 weeks ..my twin boys were born 3 months ago and are still with us… it certainly changed my views on the subject
by DaveyTibs April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
Well Pax/Cam was very dull which is the best you can hope for with him I suppose, awful television though.
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
138- Bobajob

“Tories going nowhere” is a bit over the top considering that Tuesday they were 3 points behind and they are now 5 points in front.
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
@145 Mark Senior

Totally agree: smear campaign has failed utterly. The public have decided they want the LDs to play as large a role in the next Parliament as possible.

Cameron has failed. Stuck on 33-34% Brown is in meltdown. Only the LDs have a chance to rise through the next days of this campaign.
by Nick April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
Actually, after yesterday’s papers I (and several others here) expected the LDs to poll better with sympathy votes, as Brown did after the Sun/misspelt letter fiasco.

Still it’s early days - we need a couple of days to see the real impact of the press coverage and the debates.
by aston April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
143.

“Cam to be the Comeback Kid after the third debate”

So you accept he was cr@p in the first debate then?
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:01
148 - find me someone saying Cameron “destroyed” Clegg, please.

The consensus, both on here and in the non-voodoo polls, was that it was a toss-up; some saying Cameron won and some saying Clegg won. I think the Tories would like to be a bit higher - in fact I’m sure they would. But it also appears to show that the Clegg effect might only work once. Time will tell on that front, of course.

If you wanted to be pedantic, the change from last Friday’s YG is Con +1, Lab +1, LD - 1. Again, that doesn’t really mean anything, but the polls seem to have a degree of as you were about them after this debate.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 21:02
Cameron looked genuinely fatigued but did fine against Paxo.

Good timing for the interview - virtually invisible except to complete saddos. Brown should copy.
by Gabble April 23rd, 2010 at 21:02
169.

“Cameron has failed. Stuck on 33-34% Brown is in meltdown.”

Perhaps Ian Paisley will invite them both to share his retirement home?
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:03
GIN @152

Rather rude to Mrs Malc, that Gin. She is totally apolitical.

She watched a few minutes during the commercials break on Corrie.

Says that she thinks he looks flustered and not very Prime Ministerial. Of course I’m not stupid enough to waste time on Paxman nonsense, or should that be Cameron nonsense?
by Malcolm April 23rd, 2010 at 21:03
Tories re-established as clear leaders.

Libs and Labs fighting for second.

Tory cause is helped by decent Lib Dem score splitting left vote, weakening Labour in marginals?
by TheSheikofShake April 23rd, 2010 at 21:03
Crosby Yougov probabilistic
Lab 265
Con 255
LD 99
SNP 8
PC 4
Oth 1
NI 13
by RodCrosby April 23rd, 2010 at 21:03
Gabble - Relevant means a non Labour supporter you can work out the rest.
by Patrick April 23rd, 2010 at 21:04
This election could be decided squarely in the last week.

Once we get away from the TV debate obsession then we have 6 days of people doing their set pieces, big speeches and so on. My own view is that Cameron seems to derive good hits on such set pieces and it does shore up the Tory numbers. The question is, will Clegg do the same?
by Yokel April 23rd, 2010 at 21:04
No real surprise YouGov show no real change, very few people watched the debate last night, and I am guessing most won’t have been casual viewer like the ITV crowd that tuned in last week. Would expect BBC one will be back up there, but will people be bored of GE by then or the opposite closer to election more tuned in?

Cameron vs Paxman was obviously going to be a bore draw when BBC didn’t really have anything exciting to splash across the 6pm news.
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 21:04
Is anyone on this site stupid enough to believe that Brown is going to poll 29% on May 6th?
by planetnokia April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
150. Fair and balanced YouGov showed Cameron completely dominated that debate on Sky.

The problem for opinion polls is the debate was on Sky News with a small TV audience. So the important thing is Clegg gets exposed in front of a much wider BBC audience next week. FWIW I think Clegg is an annoying lightweight who shouldn’t even be allowed to participate in any of these debates. All he does is interrupt and talk over Cameron and Brown.
by Michael Branch April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
As we go into the last twelve days…

1. Increasing evidence that the Lib Dem surge is stabilising at around 30%. As the late deciders decide, that will rise without any strong swing to 32%. This will be at the expense of the Tories, I suspect.
2. There are some EXCEPTIONAL swings likely in the seats of expenses tainted MPs.
3. Historians will conclude that this was an election where money simply didn’t count for anything. It will have cost the Tories upwards of £30,000,000 to fall from 40%+ to 34% and the Lib Dems £3,000,000 to rise from 19% to 32%.

With the LD’s campaigning hard on the ground, 120 seats looks likely from the data I’m getting including a few really odd ones out of the left field…
by reflecting April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
169- Nick
“Only the LDs have a chance to rise through the next days of this campaign”

Like their 5 points drop since Tuesday brilliantly demonstrates…
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
I think the Tories would settle for a five point lead after last weekend polls had them at about one, and the fact that Clegg put in another assured performance last night.

Still hung parliament territory but the rot has been halted.
by Tub of Lard April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
The Raven, you asked for it, see this posted upthread, name omitted to save his embarrassment - “Was anyone serious expecting Clegg to repeat his poll surge? Hardly anyone was watching. Those who were saw Clegg witnessed his complete destruction by Cameron.”

Not exactly Shakespeare but you get the gist.
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 21:05
I am usually a Cameron fan but thought he was pretty poor tonight. Then again I am also a Paxman fan.

Roll on Brown’s interview - Paxman vs. the Taxman!
by Galvatron April 23rd, 2010 at 21:06
179.

“This election could be decided squarely in the last week.”

AFTER 25 per cent of those likely to vote have already cast their postal votes? I think not.
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:06
182

Dominated? Is that a joke - since when the hell is a result that was within MOE dominated.

12 days, the voting started - the spectator said there was 2 weeks to save the tory party.

Hows it going?
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 21:06
After a day of wall to wall smears the Lib Dems go up? Oooh that could be very interesting indeed.

Meanwhile in other news a “Tapestry” is found in orbit around the Planet Tharg going bibble, bibble, bibble.
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 21:07
186 - drat, okay

I think the rest of my point is valid, though.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 21:08
182.

“FWIW I think…..”

I seeeeeriously doubt whether that postulate would be supported by any balanced UK audience
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:08
166 - Of course, but that is not the point Cameron is making.

He keeps repeating that survival rates have increased as a basis as his support for reducing the limit to 20 weeks - he’s lying.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8635955.stm

Babies born before 24 weeks are spending longer periods in intensive care but their overall survival rates have not improved, a study has found.
Newcastle doctors say while more babies over 24 weeks do now live, the longer-term rates for infants just a week younger are static.

http://www.rcog.org.uk/what-we-do/campaigning-and-opinions/briefings-and-qas-/human-fertilisation-and-embryology-bill/brie-0
by tim April 23rd, 2010 at 21:08
183. Reflecting - I like that analysis! But I suspect that the debates have brought forward (and magnified) the usual late swing to the Lib Dems, by concentrating relatively apathetic voters’ minds early on and setting the Lib Dem alternative squarely before them. Might not the Lib Dems lose ground in the last week, as voters look at the 2005 results (or notionals) and decide that the Lib Dems can’t win in their constituencies?
by Jack Peterson April 23rd, 2010 at 21:08
189: yeah, just don’t mention the three point fall for them yesterday eh?
by Slackbladder April 23rd, 2010 at 21:09
193.

Why should a man who sets out to deceive Britain about his plans for deficit reduction tell the truth about foetuses?
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:09
190 - Brown’s polling didn’t move during Bullygate. One can certainly question how much this sort of thing has an effect anymore.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 21:09
123 Are you sure about that. Seems pretty clear that SF have strong armed the SDLP whenever they feel like it since West Belfast 92.

Re NI generally. It would not surprise a bit in any scenario HP, Tory majority, LD Surging etc if the the mainland is still chewing nails at mid morning on May 7th waiting for the Ulster counting.
by Punter April 23rd, 2010 at 21:09
Cicero @190
Cicero, could you for the sake of completeness just give a quick list of what you consider to be the “wall to wall” smears?
by don(the other one) April 23rd, 2010 at 21:09
I love the tories - their arguments involve complete guess work, I *think* it might…. set peiecs etc etc

SUCK

IT

UP!
by Labour Man April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
188- wage slave

genuine question: does postal voting really represents 25%+ of the votes?
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
DaveyTibs

That’s really good news.
by Gabble April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
Paxman, epic fail. Wasted about 15 mins of that interview trying to trip up Cameron at expense of covering more topics. Andrew Neil does this type of extended 30 interview on Straight talk much better.
by ChristinaD April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
190. The smears worked actually. Lib Dems were level with the Tories before the Telegraph and Mail did their thing. Now they are back in a relegation battle with lously labour.
by Michael Branch April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
If you watch a sea tide it appears to move at its slowest at high and low water. This is Clegg’s slack water. The real question for the Lib Dems is how far the tide will recede before the election and whether it will be overtaken by Labour coming back in. The ideal outcome for the Tories would be for both Labour and the Lib Dems to be close to the datum on May 6th.
by Seth O. Logue April 23rd, 2010 at 21:10
I’ve been thinking about starting a conspiracy theory on a blog somewhere and seeing how long it takes before Tapestry posts about it here.
by ukpaul April 23rd, 2010 at 21:11
200 - the weird thing being that there’s no think or might about how shit Brown is.
by The Raven April 23rd, 2010 at 21:11
The key with Paxman is that you have to go through it and try to get to the end of the interview without dropping a major clanger. If you do that, you’ve had a good interview. Which Cam did. Job done.
by GIN April 23rd, 2010 at 21:12
193 I don’t speak from a statistical viewpoint but from a personal one - I would say that we were told that if the babies arrived before 24 weeks then the hospital were under no obligation to attempt recussitation etc as they are classified as still-born
by DaveyTibs April 23rd, 2010 at 21:12
188

“AFTER 25 per cent of those likely to vote have already cast their postal votes? I think not.”

But that is a complete myth. Just because 25% of people have applied for the postal vote doesn’t mean that they will alls end them back straight away. I know many peple who apply for a postal vote just in case they are going to be away when teh election comes around but who then do not send it back until much closer to the election or even deliver it on the day.

I have no idea how many people send their vote back straight away (within a couple of days of receiving them) but it wouldn’t surprise me to find it is less than half of those who get them.
by Richard Tyndall April 23rd, 2010 at 21:13
DaveyTibs @166

Davey, great to see you posting again, and I hope the boys are doing well?
by ChristinaD April 23rd, 2010 at 21:13
Dan Smith - if you want to ban people from this site consult Edmund in Tokyo. By the way, are you related to that other Labour luminary, T. Dan Smith ?
by fr April 23rd, 2010 at 21:14
203. Andrew Neil and Stephanie Flanders did a delicious number on Vince Cable in the chancellor’s debate. I wish the BBC would re-run that in prime time. If people saw the wishy washy economic policies of Cable they would run a million miles from voting Lib Dem.
by Michael Branch April 23rd, 2010 at 21:14
123:Punter, I think, I heard that Northern Ireland will be counting on the night, although I could be wrong.
by AnnaK April 23rd, 2010 at 21:14
God are the Lib Dem’ers still going on about “smears”. If Clegg does get near the levers of power, there will be far worse slurry sent his way than those rather poor and uninteresting stories the other day.

As far as I could see all the stories were based on fact, obviously spun negatively. Cameron and Gordo get far worse thrown their way day in day out, in fact Cameron was getting the old East European rubbish again from the Guardian and the Indy on the same day. No idea what the Mirror went with, but guessing it was the usual combination of half-truths, smears and innuendo.
by Oracle April 23rd, 2010 at 21:15
Well, I’d rather there had been a 91% swing to Labour, of course, but can’t help feeling pleased that yesterday’s press barrage is had apparently zilch effect. The public are less easily pushed around than the Sun likes to think. In fact, so far the net effect of the Sun’s interventions (the condolence letters, the Prime Monster) has been negative for the Tories.

Lsurence suggests that effects usually take a few days to filter through. That’s something we’ve chewed over here before and there’s not much evidence of it IMO. If a sotry persists over several days with remifications and denials and fresh revelations, of course that has more effect. But otherwise YouGov seems to me to register effects (if any) immediately.

So it’s possible that we’re now seeing something close to the result - one more debate and then we’re out of obvious game-changers, and the first PVs do now seem to have gone out. We just need some properly weighted polling data on how it’s playing in different types of marginal and we might have a decent stab at guessing the outcome.
by Nick Palmer April 23rd, 2010 at 21:15
201.

In a number of marginal constituencies postal voters make up more than 25 per cent of those who will actually vote (NB this means over 20 per cent Postal Voter registration). All Parties have been actively-trawling for postal voters in these places for the past two years or more.

Postal voters in General Elections are about 85 per cent likely to cast their votes in these marginal constituencies, as opposed to about 60 per cent (if that) of those who trek to the polls on May 6th. Consequently, Postal Voters, may provide up to 30 per cent of all votes in a few constituencies. Some may hang onto them till nearer the end, but not many.
by wage slave April 23rd, 2010 at 21:15
new thread
by Exeunt Omnes April 23rd, 2010 at 21:15
159 wage slave

I think Walkington might win St albans regardless of the national swing. As I posted on the prior thread, Tory canvassers there are going around blaming Thatcher for the Anne Main’s expenses scandal
by Paul M April 23rd, 2010 at 21:16
200- Labour man

Why are you screaming?
by Chris(from Bethesda) April 23rd, 2010 at 21:16
198. If the SDLP reverse out they really really will be reversing but most of all, it will dismay the core support which they are nearly at in many areas. I do not deny that they can change their mind but the clock is ticking.

The SF stunt in South Belfast will shore the SDLP core vote and while they will ride to a real beating in F&ST I suspect that core might just win Connor the seat.
by Yokel April 23rd, 2010 at 21:16
194. It’s possible. It depends on how smart the LD tacticians are. By now they must be thinking that seats they were probably very worried about, like Eastleigh, are now probably safe and that they can move resources into the next group of seats. It’s now a race to see how many of their normally quite mobile activists will be willing to move and where they will move them too. The consequences of the expenses debacle have not been fully picked up by the LD high command and the Tories are still in denial over it.

An expenses tainted Tory told me that nobody was talking about it to him on the doorstep. I was able to reassure him that they were talking about it behind his back.
by reflecting April 23rd, 2010 at 21:16
Why does the publication of every poll result in one group of PBers hurling abuse at another? This is not PB behaviour.

We all know that polls will be good and bad for all 3 major parties. One night’s rise is the following night’s fall.

As a Tory if we are leading in the polls I am happy and if being led I am disappointed. I am also looking forward to 13 days and 1 hour from now when we will be digesting the first exit poll news and if it has not gone into meltdown, PB will be going haywire with twits, tweets and tw@ts being reported from every corner of the UK.

My take on Paxo v Cammo was that it was all rather tame. Paxo asked some searching questions and Dave gave the best, honest answers he could. Outside our little political nerdy bubble it will be irrelevant unless reported upon in the 10pm news or tomorrow’s papers. As a sad git with no social life I will now watch Taggart on channel 132 and work on my final pre-election guess for all 650 seats.
by Easterross April 23rd, 2010 at 21:17
13 “Unless the polls move sharply in one direction or another, we’re in very hung Parliament territory. And why should they?”

I think there’s a chance (20%?) of a significant shift Lab->Lib before election day if the surge keeps up.
by MrJones April 23rd, 2010 at 21:17
To be honest I did expect yougov to be different - but maybe, as said before, it needs a couple of days to settle.

I did think the LDs would gain a couple of points, as they always seem to do after media exposure. Maybe it’s hidden within the MOE.

The big surprise to me is Labour though. The mood in the Guardian / Polly Tonybee camp looked pretty downbeat and I didn’t expect them to gain a point. Again, could be MOE stuff or just early days.
by aston April 23rd, 2010 at 21:17
Big John if you had bothered to take a look outside the bunker this week you would have noted the sun was shining and Cameron has been out in it quite a bit. I think he’s caught a bit of sun

Funniest sun burn ive seen only effects the cheeks and disappears when hes not answering questions

As for the bunker i dont even play golf
by Big John April 23rd, 2010 at 21:18
Patrick @40

Rough rule of thumb to convert a GB figure to E&W.

Add 2 to Con : Deduct 1 from Lab.
by oldnat April 23rd, 2010 at 21:19
Jack Peterson @194

Jack, the big unanswerable is how angry voters will split.

In seats with Tory or NuLabour troughers many angries will either sit on their hands or vote LibDem, with a few going to the minor parties. Very few will bounce across the divide if they were originally supporters of the incumbent. This is why it seems that there are rather too many don’t knows.

To wit, the anti-NuLabour masses will not suddenly become Brownites, with the same applying to the Anti-Tories. Cameron will not suddenly appear as a knight in armour.

Its the angry voters who hold the outcome of this election in their hands, and after the last parliament that is how it should be. My water tells me that this is going to be an election night to remember with shocks all over the place. If the angries vote there will be a lot of current MPs in the job queue on May 7th.
by Malcolm April 23rd, 2010 at 21:21
213. I didn’t see Neil and Flanders tear Cable apart.

However, I have looked at the LibDem numbers in their manifesto and they look completely ropy.

How can Clegg and Cable get the budget deficit down to a reasonable level by 2014 if they are going to give £17 Billion per year in tax cuts ? It can’t be done, unless growth is at 5%.
by Tub of Lard April 23rd, 2010 at 21:22
199.. Sure: the “Clegg in Nazi slur on Britain” in Daily Mail, an “expose” of publicly declared donations in the Daily Telegraph, with the false implication that they were corrupt. The Sun falsely claiming that the Lib Dem campaign was “wobbling”, The Daily Express attacking Lib Dem immigration policy through misrepresentation and denouncing it as “Crazy”. The repeated false statement that the Liberal Democrats were abandoning all nuclear weapons- pretty much everywhere on that one.

All on one day, all made by Conservative supporting newspapers, all of which- according to Nick Robinson amongst others- had met with the CCHQ to discuss the rise in Lib Dem support in the previous day or so.

It looked pretty much like a coordinated smear attack to try to unbalance Clegg ahead of the second debate to me. Even Mandelson, who knows a thing or six about smears, thought that the Tory media machine had gone too far.
by Cicero April 23rd, 2010 at 21:23
St Vincent destroyed on the Campaign Show

He’s completly useless
by saddo April 23rd, 2010 at 21:26
207. I’m not interested in theories, ukpaul. The news reports version of how the Polish plane came down have been demonstrated to be fabricated. The plane only attempted one landing. There is no evidence that President Kaczynski pressured the pilot to land. Belarus say that there were no flights being redirected to Minsk. Visibility was about 1 kilometre (Not thick fog) but only mist. The pilot spoek fluent Russian. In fact every detail given was wrong.

If you are satisfied to be lied to by the media on a topic of this importance, then shame on you. And God help Britain, if you are typical. Try to imagine that not everything served up to you on a plate by the media is true.
by Tapestry April 23rd, 2010 at 21:56
Comment from Milliband

Liberal Democrat ‘anti-politics’ is not a way to govern – David MilibandForeign secretary attacks Nick Clegg and says: ‘You’ve punished us enough about Iraq’

IMHO grave tactical error - if this is picked up Labour should lose a few more %ge points.
by John Wood April 23rd, 2010 at 23:00
Very fine academic work this “accurate seat predictor.” Trouble is, I put in the same percentages used, on a web predictor (which presumbably uses simple UNS) and it came up with more or less the same result!

In passing: I think none of these prediction methods take into account “personality candidates” - Cyril Smith in Rochdale and Simon Hughes in Bermondsey seem to be or were immune from National Swings - as is Denis Skinner (I know Tories who vote for him!) et al. There must be dozens of seats where even a massive national swing to (say) the Tories will not dislodge a well liked sitting MP.

Anyone care to include a list of apparently immune sitting MPs. Not just for fun but then they might be discarded from lists of potential losses!
by HerbertAsquith April 24th, 2010 at 00:43

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