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But the LDs blunt Tory progress in the LAB-CON marginals

April 10th, 2010
ICM Marginals poll-NOTW 2005 Apr 9 Jan 22
CONSERVATIVES 30.8% 36% 40%
LABOUR 44.4% 37% 37%
LIB DEMS 17.8% 19% 14%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 . 6.3% 8.3%

As well as the main national ICM poll there’s a new marginals survey by the firm in the News of the World based on the same seats as the paper’s January marginals poll.

With all marginal polls the critical factor is the swing from what happened in those seats at the 2005 general election and here that is at 6.3% – or better than that in tonight’s standard ICM poll. The gap, however, isn’t large.

The big change on the January 2010 poll are the four point drop in the Tory share and a huge increase, to higher than 2005 election levels, for the Lib Dems.

You would expect that the Lib Dems would see their share really squeezed here and from these polling figures at least that does not seem to be happening.

UPDATE: Labour have MOE increase in the daily poll

YG daily poll S. Times Apr 10 Apr 9
CONSERVATIVES 40% 40%
LABOUR 32% 30%
LIB DEMS 18% 20%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6.5%

Mike Smithson