UPDATE: The new Populus poll that wasn’t
March 22nd, 2010| 40% | ||
| 30% | ||
| 20% | ||
| 6.5% |
Is the swing 1.7% bigger in the key seats?
Thanks to Tabman on the previous thread for spotting this one. A standard national voting intention poll that was carried out by Populus the week before last for the Resolution Foundation.
The figures above show changes on the most recently published standard national poll from the firm - which was in the Times at the start of February.
What makes this “new” poll interesting is that the fieldwork took place almost immediately after the firm’s poll of Labour most vulnerable seats numbers 51 - 150. That recorded a swing from the last election of 6.7%
This national poll has it at 5% - so it broadly supports the notion that the Tories are doing better in the marginals.
At the time of the Populus marginals poll many observed that it was a pity that we did not have a standard poll to compare it. Well this one was not quite concurrent but gives us a broad indication.
UPDATE: It turns out that this wasn’t a new poll at all. The Resolution Centre had asked some question for its own purposes but the voting intention numbers were from the ICM poll that was published a couple of days later.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
no
yes
where’s Gabble with his bold and caps Locked first comment? I quite like them!
A moment of glory without p***ing of OGH by yelping First!
Gabble, if I write “Broken sleezy Tories on the slide” for you, will it spare us all from your egregious existence?
So what would this mean regards number of seats won?
Isn’t 1.7% within MOE territory? Having said that I think it’s almost a certainty that the Tories will do better in the marginals than the national picture suggests.
Coffee House Blog - Both Labour and the Tories need to get stuck into Vince
3 Goebble say’s ‘SLEAZY LABOUR POLITICIANS ON THE TAKE’
Yes
re 6. Yes and no. For every marginals poll is showing a differential - that’s really the best pointer.
There is an argument for saying that the notion of MOE is a nonsense when you don’t have totally random samples.
7, so what it’s recommending is, LD-DP?
Completely off topic, but it is a poll!
Caledonian Mercury - Diary: Tories ‘more likely to commit adultery’
“A Tory source would only say: “The Liberal Democrats must be gutted. They are not quite as liberal as they would like us to believe.”
Equally, many Conservatives may not be as conservative as they would like us to believe.”
7. Where pbc leads, others follow:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/12/should-the-tories-be-gunning-for-vince/
O/T Former BBC boxing commentator and Sports Night host Harry Carpenter has died, aged 84. Sad news, he was a nice old boy.
On topic, yes.
Arguably, the next question would be *in which* marginals are the Tories doing better: 1-50, 51-100, 101-150, Con vs LD etc.
S&S. See my previous post. Also, McCain managed to keep the right on board because he ran to the right, which is what caused him to lose swing voters. If he had ran to the centre he would have lost the right wing for sure.
Does this old poll back up the marginals theory?
It would appear to, yes…
But is it enough to avoid NOM?
Yes but surely its real signifigance is to put Populus’ shoulder to the ” Hung Parliament” narrative. Now 7% plus a higher swing in the marginals won’t mean a hung parliament however I doubt the media is going to report that anytime soon. They may have accepted that the Tories no longer need to be 9 or 10% clear but 6% to 7% leads means they can return to the narrative ante.
Whats also unfortunate for the Tories is that in a decimal culture another poll having the big two both in the 30’s will help pick Labours activism and fundraising off the floor.
O/T wonder how long it will take harperson to get ashcroft into her statement on lobbying ?
Well now for a sensible (I hope) reply. As a Tory I’d love to have screamed Yes! but the difference in swing between marginals and whole country doesn’t seem really huge, though encouraging, and the whole business of weighting seems to be posing quite a few problems even to people who spend their lives doing polls for a living. I think the next few weeks are going to be fascinating for everyone here even if for some of us the ‘wrong’ side wins. Going further I’d have thought the pollsters will gain hugely from the chance to test competing methodologies with so much data and then a final result.
16- “455. The Democratic response to a pledge to get rid of the mandates could simply be “sure.” They only put them in in order to avoid complete hostility from the insurance companies. It’ll hit insurance company profits - what do Democrats care now they have reform in place?”
The whole reason that the mandate is in the bill is to avoid premiums from spiraling out of control, not to pad insurance company profits. If the Dems now turn around and endorse a repeal of the mandate, they will destroy the rationale for healthcare reform that was pitched (unsuccessfully) to a majority of Americans: cost control. If they go down this road, then we really might have a chance at a total repeal after all.
But you seem to think that all possible GOP arguments against the Senate bill are politically futile, so I’m sure you think November will be a walk in the park for the Dems.
Mike - So effectively the point is that repeatedly pairs of polls show this sort of discrepancy and whilt there might be a (say) 5% chance of one being just noise the chance of them all being noise is very low indeed. Makes sense.
My thoughts are that marginals are by their very nature likely to show bigger swings anyway.
Yes, it does.
18. I think it does the Conservatives no harm if their supporters are led to believe this election won’t be a walkover.
Did you know that in internet parlance, “nom” also refers to the act of eating?
Tholster what a pity. Carpenter like Coleman was one of those ‘voices’ I grew up with. Distinctive but not artificial. And he knew his game too.
O/T Byers - If this was in the commercial world he’d certainly have been suspended from his job and his employer would be going over his emails etc with a toothcomb. What we are getting instead is just a little sit down with a friendly face and a cursory chat over the details isn’t it?
Mike - very kind, but I think it was Keiran on the post below mine?
7. Too late. He is like Sarah Brown. He should probably have been destroyed earlier on once the threat was obvious however now he has “National Treasure” status any serious camapign this close to an election will just martyr him and thus make him more powerful.
However I may be wrong and the point is moot. cables own solo operation over the weekend gives the Lib Dems a reasonable heat shield against all the **** that is comming their way over the “instability” of a hung parliament.
” Vince Cable for Chancellor” is understandable, short, popular and even vaguely plausible. Its a good line.
So can the number-crunchers confirm that a 6.7 per cent swing in the marginals would be enough to give the Tories an overall majority on the old Baxter et al calculations (even without the likely Andy Cooke ‘bonus’)?
FPT 413. Richard Dodd
How long is it since the EU books were signed off..
Oh, just a couple of months.
As has to keep being explained to British Europhobes blinded by anti-EU propaganda in their rightwing tabloids, the EU Commission received an unqualified report on its accounts last year.
21. Ok, fair point on the mandate. But then, isn’t there the comeback “Republicans would send your premiums spiralling”? The Democrats were also very intelligent in allowing kids aged up to 26 to still be on their parents insurance. Not only would that be popular with anxious parents, but the 22-26 bracket would have been the most resistant to the mandate. By the time you’re in your late 20s you start to get on your feet financially and have an acceptance you need to pay for things, rather than just being as cheap as possible.
I also think you’re putting words in my mouth. I don’t think all possible GOP arguments are futile, I just argued that the power of arguing against specific provisions is restrained. In short-term tactical terms, they should probably run on total repeal and just say “oh that’s one bit we’ll keep” if the Dems mention popular aspects.
12 - I don’t think human nature varies very much. Perhaps Tories are just more likely to conform with convention, ie to get married and thereby be in a position to commit adultery? Can’t be adulterous if not married!
29 It would give 97 gains from Labour and would mean the Tories would need 19 gains from Lib Dems, Nats and others and/or NI seats to get a majority
29 - The Andy Cooke “bonus” *is* the extra swing in the marginals; you can’t count it twice! Putting a marginals swing into a standard UNS calculator (i.e. apply the marginals swing to the last G.E. result) will give you a decent ballpark.
FPT The reason #cashgordon is trending is because of this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/pda/2010/mar/22/conservatives-cashgordon
More importantly as it states in the comments
“It turns out the developers have failed the most basic of web programming rules - not only have they not filtered profanity from their Twitter stream on the cash-gordon website, but they are passing through content without HTML escaping.
Which means you can put any HTML or javascript you like in your tweet with a #cashgordon tag and it renders on the cash-gordon.com website.
Which means everybody is redirecting the site to various others, including labour, injecting rude pictures, making pop-up messages appear, etc… ”
Another massive error. Who ever signed that off should be collecting a P45 from central office.
Agree with Stars and Stripes about the Republicans being able to run on mandates. I’m surprised that despite all the sound and fury they kicked up about healthcare they haven’t made them into a bigger issue instead of banging on about abortion or the size of government or all the made up stuff about Death Panels or whatever. Even Obama campaigned against them, FFS - a fact that, as far as I can see, the Republicans completely failed to make an issue out of.
BenM, if Labour’s so keen on Europe why does it keep ignoring European Court rulings on indefinite retention of DNA and blanket stop-and-searches?
31- Re: the correct arguments, it will depend on the audience. But Republicans will need to highlight specific unpopular parts of the legislation at times, and the mandate is an obvious one. If the Dems do respond by arguing that rescinding mandates would send costs spiraling, the counterargument is that’s just another reason that the bill stinks. Basically, the best Democratic approach to Obamacare will be to avoid talking about it altogether, to the extent possible.
36. I’ve always assumed the reluctance of both sides to criticise mandates was due to the fear of losing insurance companies’ campaign contributions. When did the Republicans last argue for a policy against big businesses?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE Polling and Seat index.
Con 39% .. Lab 32% .. LibDem 19% .. Others 10%
The PISSED Jack W Seat Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 333 seats .. Lab 224 .. LibDem 57 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 16. David Cameron is Prime Minister.
…………………………………………….
Jack W Tip of the Day - LibDems to Gain Bedford - 4/1 with Ladbrokes - Excellent Trading Bet.
Election Night Single Malt Tasting Notes - Number Six :
The result from Sunderland South is being digested - Oh dear. It’s time for a wee drop of Fettercairn. The lighter aroma of this malt comes through - oranges, almonds and a hint of nutmeg. There is a dash of dryness too. We also meet a toffee sweetness and a splash of nuttiness later as a medium finish comes through.
………………………………………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
35 - LOL!
Fail.
Reminds me of this classic : http://xkcd.com/327/
39- The Republicans weren’t reluctant to argue against the mandates.
29 Of the 117 seats the Conservatives need to form a majority, 90 are held by Labour. A 6.7% swing would give them 97.
As against that, polls in Labour-held marginals tell us nothing about how the Conservatives would fare in Lib Dem or SNP held marginal seats. My guess is, probably less well, and thus, falling just short of an overall majority.
It is clear that the Conservatives are doing better in the marginals. The key question is (a) how much better? and (b) from what national base?
Most of the marginals polls (YG, ICM and now Populus) indicate a swing c. 1-2% higher. ARS was much higher at 4%.
So if ARS are right we will have a landslide – large national Conservative lead AND overperformance in the marginals.
If the other pollsters are right we are on the edge of a Hung Parliament, with a national lead around 7%. The Andy Cooke model indicates a Tory majority, UNS a definite Hung Parliament. I think Andy will be closer than ONS but his model has a lot of variables based on guesswork rather than evidence, although is an impressive feat.
My feeling is that the Conservatives will outperform ONS similar to the traditional pollsters suggestions. That means a 7% national lead would equate to a ‘UNS calculator’ lead of 10 – 11% and would put the Tories on the edge of a majority.
The Tories latest web wheeze seems to have backfired spectacularly because they forget code injection… better to avoid centrally organizing these things and let them grow organically.
Socrates, where do you get your constitutional theoretical arguments that the mandates fit neatly within the Commerce Clause? Can you flesh out that argument?
Jack W, do I take it from your prediction that you’re convinced by Andy Cooke’s swing calculator?
37. Another right wing ignoramus who doesn’t understand that the EU & the ECHR are completely different things.
Socrates @39, maybe. But if they’d made the mandate radioactive, the whole thing would have unraveled, for the reasons Stars and Stripes gives at @21. Surely the insurance companies would have figured that out?
And isn’t it amazing that Obama seems to have got through the whole thing, including an aggressively hostile interview with Fox News, without ever having to give an evasive-sounding answer about why he was against the mandate before he was for it?
Byers in full Labour line mode:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7497813/Gordon-Brown-dismisses-Conservative-calls-for-inquiry-into-cash-for-influence-scandal.html
“I am confident that he will confirm that I have complied with the MPs’ code of conduct and have fully disclosed my outside interests,” he said.”
Neither of which have anything to do with what he is accused of. Deny something that hasn’t been asked is classic; right up there with Brown’s “I never hit anybody”, when nobody accused him of doing as such.
BBCLauraK:
“Conservatives tell my colleague Rory Cellan Jones they have bought Google terms ‘Gordon Brown’ - so searches will go to their attack ads “
35. Wow. I’m no tecchie but that cashgordon thing sounds like a right Tory cock up.
Piss Ups and breweries come to mind!
Every time the Tories touch something it turns to mould…
Mike,
Why do you insist on sticking up meaningless polls? Dredging them up from 11 days ago is ridiculous and tells us nothing.
Your last front piece actually dealt with issues that can be debated.
Your excellent pb.com deserves better from you.
47 Sean Fear. I think that it’s more that Andy Cooke has mugged my SOAMES - System Of Amending Measured Election Scores !!
ARSE estimates that if the election were today then the Tories would outperforming UNS in the southern and some midlands marginals - struggle more north of the Trent. The Lib Dems would lose two seats to the Tories for every one they snatch from Labour.
My opinion, outwith of ARSE, is that we’re in for a night of many surprises !!
46. Others can make it better than I can:
http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/conlaw/2009/09/is-an-individual-health-insurance-mandate-constitutional.html
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/or_20091212_6842.php
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/25/health_care_mandate_is_consitutional_99290.html
48. “But if they’d made the mandate radioactive, the whole thing would have unraveled, for the reasons Stars and Stripes gives at @21. Surely the insurance companies would have figured that out?”
Perhaps, but it would have been something of a gamble. S&S is right in that it would have pushed premiums up, but I’m not convinced it would have been as bad as some suggest. If the poor get subsidies and the middle class young get covered by their parents, how many people would really have avoided paying. Besides, there’s a common misconception that most insurance companies make most of their money by covering people, pooling risk and charging, on average, slightly more than they pay out. That’s actually only a very small part of their business - they make their millions by getting a huge pot of money now and investing it smartly on the financial markets in the years before they need to pay it out. It would have still been a viable industry and, although consumers would have taken some of the hit, the insurance companies would have taken most of it.
“And isn’t it amazing that Obama seems to have got through the whole thing, including an aggressively hostile interview with Fox News, without ever having to give an evasive-sounding answer about why he was against the mandate before he was for it?”
True. Maybe once the insurance companies had decided not to risk the matter, the corporate-funded cable news channels followed suit.
4 Perhaps you haven’t been a PBer long enough to know that OGH is actually prepared to sell off “First” posts - I believe the going price is £10 a go if you’re interested. Of course I’ve never had to resort to such dastardly tricks. Neither, I believe, has Mike’s son Robert.
35. Wow. I’m no tecchie but that cashgordon thing sounds like a right Tory cock up.
Piss Ups and breweries come to mind!
Every time the Tories touch something it turns to mould…
by BenM March 22nd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
It works ok for me, what should I see BenM?
49 - The accusation against Steven Byers is much more serious. He used words which seem to have had a conscious echo of Mohammed Fayed’s testimony in the Neil Hamilton libel trial:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/fayed-hamilton-would-sell-his-mother-for-cash-739670.html
“He told the jury that the scope of corruption had been revealed to him by the lobbyist Ian Greer “who told me you can rent an MP like a taxi driver”. Mr Fayed continued: “It completely changed my perception of the way they behave .. they’re there to make money.” “
51. BenM goes “on message” - hoorah.
1,800 jobs here could go.
Forecasters have predicted that Britain will experience a summer of unbroken sunshine and record temperatures.
Positive Weather Solutions, who predicted this winter’s big freeze and last summer’s wash-out say that the summer of 2010 will be perfect barbecue weather.
Experts at PWS say that temperatures are on course to beat those of the summer of 1976, the hottest summer on record, saying that the combined effect of El Nino and the Pacific and the Atlantic jetstream will raise temperature in the UK.
‘There will be stifling temperatures, making it possibly the warmest UK summer on record and placing it at least in the top three warmest summers recorded,’ Jonathan Powell of Abergavenny-based PWS said.
‘Now it is time to get the barbecue out - and people should be able to find a good deal on one after last year’s Met Office forecast.’
PWS, which employs just five people as opposed to 1,800 at the Met Office, has out-performed the experts in their long-range forecasts over the last two years.
51 - so you’re no techie, and you’re no economics expert, yet you feel comfortable stating your opinion as fact on both issues?
@TimT, fpt — Well, I agree that it’s very risky to bet on the RCP to reach 50% before April.
I think however that tim’s bet @17 and 25% is a very good move; problem is, there’s not much liquidity. But the last price matched is around 40% last time I checked, so already he could get a very decent return on his “investment”. Good trading bet. One has indeed to compute the fact that the average compiles old polls.
@Edmund from Tokyo. If you think that Palin has a fair shot at becoming the Republican Presidential nominee for 2012, I’m ready to offer you 8/1. Which is excellent value, giving the actual price of 20% on Intrade. I prefer however to bet with valuable and friendly PB.com contributors such as yourself as we don’t need to freeze any cash for months…
(I can offer you 4/1 on Romney, also.)
O/T ‘The world’s two biggest wine producers are scaling back their investment in the UK following punitive tax increases by the Government.’
“After 10 to 15 years of growth, we are at a tipping point where you are going to start receiving declining tax revenue if you keep increasing the duty,” said Mr Marsden.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/7488682/Tax-rises-drive-wine-makers-out-of-UK.html
46. Others can make it better than I can:
http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/conlaw/2009/09/is-an-individual-health-insurance-mandate-constitutional.html
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/or_20091212_6842.php
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/11/25/health_care_mandate_is_consitutional_99290.html
48. “But if they’d made the mandate radioactive, the whole thing would have unraveled, for the reasons Stars and Stripes gives at @21. Surely the insurance companies would have figured that out?”
Perhaps, but it would have been something of a gamble. S&S is right in that it would have pushed premiums up, but I’m not convinced it would have been as bad as some suggest. If the poor get subsidies and the middle class young get covered by their parents, how many people would really have avoided paying. Besides, there’s a common misconception that most insurance companies make most of their money by covering people, pooling risk and charging, on average, slightly more than they pay out. That’s actually only a very small part of their business - they make their millions by getting a huge pot of money now and investing it smartly on the financial markets in the years before they need to pay it out. It would have still been a viable industry and, although consumers would have taken some of the hit, the insurance companies would have taken most of it.
“And isn’t it amazing that Obama seems to have got through the whole thing, including an aggressively hostile interview with Fox News, without ever having to give an evasive-sounding answer about why he was against the mandate before he was for it?”
True. Maybe once the insurance companies had decided not to risk the matter, the corporate-funded cable news channels followed suit.
46. S&S, I’m posting links but they’re not coming up for some reason…
52 - Malcolm: Why do you insist on sticking up meaningless polls? Dredging them up from 11 days ago is ridiculous and tells us nothing.
Does it tell us nothing? National VI poll done at about the same time as their last marginal poll showing larger swing in said marginals…
And 11 days old isn’t exactly past it, is it? or are we so used to the rolling daily polls that anything that isn’t right up to the minute it useless?
paulwaugh
Ben Bradshaw says Cab Sec has ordered inquiry into Byersgate. Does he know something we don’t? http://bit.ly/bZ3CTW
50.Nick, Labour supporters going nuts on twitter just now, I don’t think they have even registered that news yet.
62- I hope it’s not anything by Lawrence Tribe or Cass Sunstein…
64. Its probably an inquiry into how secret cameras were allowed to film Labour MPs - shurely security must be tightened ?
64, maybe he’s pre-empting Hatemen’s statement. Is Bradshaw in the sisterhood?
46. Here we go:
http://tiny.cc/fds3k
http://tiny.cc/ao571
http://tiny.cc/756br
14 RIP Harry Carpenter - we always knew what you meant ‘Arry for a whole generation when boxing was at its prime. The all time world champion commentator, for sure.
Afternoon all
Signs of a notable step-up in political activity in East Ham today with the opening of offices for the Conservative Party opposite the entrance to East Ham station along with posters for Paul Shea, the Conservative candidate for East Ham and the Newham Council candidates for the three Wards around East Ham itself.
All this seems to have been organised by the British Conservative Tamil Association (East Ham has a large population of Tamils, many from northern Sri Lanka and it remains to be seen whether they have any influence on, for example, Tory policy toward Sri Lanka and its treatment of the Tamils in the north of the island with the ending of the military challenge of the LTTE last year).
It will be fascinating to see if this has any impact in this part of the world. Frankly, it’s hard to see Shea winning East Ham though second is a quite achievable objective). As far as Newham Council is concerned, the Conservatives currently have no Councillors and failed to win the Royal Docks by-election last year.
Labour have 56 out of 60 Councillors with Respect down to just one and the opposition formed by the Christian People’s Alliance with three seats from the Canning Town South Ward.
I can’t see Labour losing control and the best the Tories can probably hope for is to pick up a few seats and become the official Opposition.
It’s an interesting use of resources and strongly suggests to me the Conservatives have a huge war chest and nothing will be left to chance that money cannot resolve. Whether the other parties will choose to save their resources for later in the campaign or will merely concentrate on defences and best prospects remains to be seen.
I would merely contend the Conservatives have little chance of winning East Ham though I would not be surprised to see a significant increase in the Tory vote share. Labour may of course regain some of the vote lost to Respect in 2005 and will hold easily. Nonetheless the Tories seem to be spending, in terms of presence, on the basis East Ham is a marginal.
53. What if - as I think that the Tories don’t do that well against the Lib Dems - does your 2-1 ratio still hold under those circumstances? Or is it moveable? Maybe it’s wishful thinking, Jack(we are all aloud a bit of that sometimes - some Tories allow themselves it about 10 times an hour) but I think that the Lib Dems are being severely under priced.
I’d be very surprised if the Tories were not doing better in the marginals. Not only will they be working harder in those marginals with a better quality of candidate and more funds, but the incentive for a Tory to vote is higher if they feel it might actually make a difference. I’d also expect the same in seats where LDs are the challengers.
I suspect that this is bourne out by higher turnouts in the marginals too, although that is just a hunch without a shread of evidence to back it up!
ben m cant vote as he is only 11
60 Philippe. Imagine the Presidential debates between Obama and Palin ?!?!
64, maybe he’s pre-empting Hatemen’s statement. Is Bradshaw in the sisterhood?
by Morris Dancer March 22nd, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Some may say so.
Going back to the original post, there is no Populus poll. The figures are actually just the ICM poll done at the same time.
(Populus often use ICM’s call centre for their fieldwork - Resolutions questions on income went on the same poll as the ICM voting intention questions for the Sunday Telegraph, so it’s actually ICM’s voting intention, with cross breaks from Populus’s questions.)
Another point on the national polls, the ten national pollsters have now tightened back up. Leads are as follows:
BPIX 2
Mori 5
Comres 5
ICM 6
Yougov 7
Populus 7
Harris 8
TNS 8
Opinium 11
ARS 13
So excluding BPIX, Opinium and ARS all pollsters have the lead between 5 and 8 points. The change since before Christmas seems essentially that the Tories have moved from the low forties to the high thirties and Labour have moved from the high twenties to the low thirties.
The Mori and Comres polls of course are well out of date so will be interesting to see what they show (incidently what is happening with comres, they seemed frequent but we haven’t had one for a while which is odd considering how close the election is).
The pollsters are generally agreed on the Tory share (36 – 39). The big variation is still with Labour (26 – 34).
On topic, yes, this old poll adds some further weight to the marginals theory.
Talking of marginals, could one of the backers of the Lib Dems in Watford go through the mechanism for my benefit as to where they see the Lib Dems’ voters coming from? Are they to be recruits from the Conservatives, recruits from Labour or recruits from “didn’t vote”?
Ezra Klein nails it:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/03/who_does_health-care_reform_he.html
37 ButItDidHappen - BenM, if Labour’s so keen on Europe why does it keep ignoring European Court rulings on indefinite retention of DNA and blanket stop-and-searches?
I thought BenM would go and hide for a while after being asked a difficult question like that, but no, he’s still here, just ignoring it as usual.
72. Moveable Paul. I expect the Lib Dem to drift north as the campaign proper gets under way.
Some time ago I specualted the Lib Dem range to be 19-27%. Very wide. I’d now narrow that to a 22-26% range.
14.70 BBC Commentators used to be a class above their commercial rivals. The voices of David Coleman, Murray Walker, Harry Carpenter, Peter O’Sullivan, Dan Maskell, Ron Pickering, Ted Lowe & Richie Benaud, irreplaceable, gone but not forgotten.
35: Well, take your pick of stories
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100030846/charlie-whelan-has-become-an-unwilling-guinea-pig-for-the-tories-online-team/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.torybear.com/2010/03/labour-planted-story-falls-flat.html
Is it the low paid what may hold the key to the General Election outcome then ??
Labour has shored up support among its traditional voter base of low-income families and blue-collar workers over the last month, according to a survey released today.
The poll suggests that low earners - who make up 14 million of the electorate - may hold the key to the coming general election, as their allegiance appears more volatile than that of people on benefits or higher-income households.
Among households with an income between £11,600 and £27,000, support for Gordon Brown’s party increased by 11 points to 37%, the poll for the Resolution Foundation think-tank found.
69- The first article you linked was interesting. Upon seeing that it was written by Ruth Marcus, I had little hope that it would have any value. But upon reading this sentence, I stopped reading altogether:
“Thus, the court said, Congress was entitled to tell Roscoe Filburn how much wheat he could grow to feed his own chickens. Surely, then, Congress could require Filburn’s grandson to buy health insurance.”
Come on Socrates, is this the BS you give me as “proof?”
The tory ‘website disaster’ has indeed allowed labourites to make comments. Such as ‘tories are posh jewish fa g g ots’. And much worse. Not sure this is a huge victory for the left.
70 PfP, I remember Harry Carpenter did a remarkable in-depth interview with Muhammed Ali, at his home. IIRC it was a first-class job, revealing yet sensitive.
82- Ruth Marcus and Ezra Klein, oh boy…
83. Surely most of those chaps are too lazy to vote tho ?
Toff Dept.
Philippe Magnan @60: “If you think that Palin has a fair shot at becoming the Republican Presidential nominee for 2012, I’m ready to offer you 8/1.”
Sounds fair. I can go up to $25 US. Deal?
(Thanks but no thanks on Romney.)
79 antifrank. Watford - That’s the cart before the horse old chap.
How are the Tories to find the votes to come from third palce in a seat they are moving backwards in since 2005.
Since 2005 the Lib Dems have :
1. Reduced the Tories to a rump in the local council.
2. Retained the mayoralty on the first ballot.
3 Won the constituency Euro vote - Mighty rare for the Lib Dems.
4. Not had their PPC up before the beek !!
90 - There is a third party in the mix, one that holds the seat.
I’m just trying to understand where the Lib Dem votes are coming from in Watford, what their message is, who they regard as their main challengers and how they are seeking to deal with the other party.
NB this query is nothing to do with Watford.
The Home Office has been accused of wasting public money in the build-up to the Budget by hiring Ruby Wax as an adviser to its staff.
The Times has learnt that the one-time comedian and talk-show presenter has become a regular visitor to the department’s Whitehall headquarters, where she provides senior civil servants with lessons in leadership and communication.
http://mreugenides.blogspot.com/
Unbelievable.
85.Seant, they have been like ants all over twitter, its impossible to follow. Really unedifying, but I doubt that they can see that right now.
[72, Paul] - I think that the Lib Dems are being severely under priced.
I think the issue with Lib Dem seats is that the probability distribution for the Lib Dems is highly skewed.
It’s easy to see how the Lib Dems could make heavy losses - a modest swing against them in Con-Lib Dem contests would see a lot of seats lost - but harder to see how they would make considerable gains - a modest swing in their favour doesn’t bring many gains from Labour.
Given that the Tories look set to increase their vote share by as much as one quarter, and it’s easy to see that the balance of risk for the Lib Dems is on the downside.
80- At least Klein admits, though, what Obama tried to hide: that Obamacare is NOT about controlling healthcare costs. Now that it’s too late to stop the bill, lefties like Klein feel that it’s finally safe to openly crow about the fact that this bill is not designed to help the middle class voters who, as it turns out, had good reason to be suspicious about Obama’s intentions.
But Socrates, why do you only link to material authored by far left loons? It’s not healthy for your sense of perspective on the American electorate to keep to such safe waters (although I’m not surprised you think Obamacare is a slam-dunk electoral winner, based on what you read…).
75 — To insure a truly vast audience, they could drop them half-naked for 1 week on a deserted jungle-island, and film what’s happening, like your average “reality”-show. That could be the climax of contemporary TV-politics.
To spice things up, the networks could throw in an angry savage tribes in the mix; Obama would have to transcend the bipartisan cleavage, and Palin might have to recogn that someone might need a little help from the Big O in times of need and despair in the face of adversity.
As Sea Shanty Irish wrote recently, “it’s a jungle out-there”…
91 antifrank. “There is a third party in the mix, one that holds the seat.” (Watford)
I didn’t mention Labour for the reason that nobody but the candidates relations expect her to top the poll !!
@Edmund — Deal! :8
$25@ 8/1, it is then.
Particularly enjoying the sight of Stars & Stripes squirming for all their worth this morning.
How’s it feel as a conservative to be on the wrong end of history yet again Stars and Stripes?
One wonders if you and your conservative buddies will ever do anything remotely in the interest of ordinary Americans? Something that will capture the mood of the nation and be written up in the history books for future generations to savour? Look at the litany of Democrat measures one can reel off: New Deal, Civil Rights, Healthcare Reform.
You self indulgent conservatives seem to be leaving all the big beneficial social and economic shifts to the Democrats!
Why not now stand aside and let the Dems get on with running the country in the interests of all Americans free of your movement’s self absorbed rightwing obstructionism, whining and fear mongering?
98. Abolition of slavery ?
96 - You’re being an old tease, Jack W. What I want to know, as I’m sure you’re only too well aware, is whether the Lib Dems are running as opponents of Labour (with the Tories irrelevant), as in Islington S & Finsbury, or opponents of the Conservatives (with Labour irrelevant), as in the South West. Or are they using a different technique entirely?
98 - a Republican freed the slaves. That’s an automatic trumps everything else kind of a win.
99. The Republican party may have abolished slavery, but conservatives certainly didn’t…
98… Oh my, the arrogance is astounding.
Did you have to go on a course to learn how to be so self-rightous or does it just come naturally to you?
98- Do you have any real questions? Any serious observations? Thought not.
102. Liberal Lincoln, was his nickname was it?
Philippe @97: A pleasure doing business with you.
Go Palin!
Actually, no, don’t!
Yes, do!
I’m so confused…
By definition, conservatives (small c) tend to be suspicious of change.
98: my first look-in at PB today, so apologies if this has already been discussed - but why does some change to domestic healthcare legislation in a foreign state so dominate the news headlines today?
Surely I’m not alone in thinking “yeah, ok, so what?”
The way the BBC, in particular, is reporting this you’d think St Obama had found a cure for cancer, or single-handedly abolished world poverty.
No, he got some domestic legislation which has no impact whatsoever on the UK through his legislature. Whoopie-doo…
Lord Adonis speaking in the Lords live on Skynews!
106. Yes - and to be fair a conservative would never have achieved the sweeping changes to the population that were possible under socialism in the Soviet Union under Stalin and Germany in the 30s and 40s. Go lefties !
51. “Wow. I’m no tecchie but that cashgordon thing sounds like a right Tory cock up.”
I believe that Labour and Government sites have had very similar right Labour f*ck ups in the past.
96 antifrank. Further. Perhaps some clever chap in Ladbrokes (no name no pack drill eh Shadsy) might form a market for second place in Watford ?? …. Labour or the Tories …. tricky one !!
107- Even though the lefties control everything in your country and mine, that doesn’t seem to do anything to diminish their anger, contempt, hostility, etc…
Time to buy tory seats before 10.00pm?
It’s hard to see the Labour vote share doing anything but fall in the next round of polls. You Gov will reflect Byers. The less frequent ones will reflect Chilcot and Byers.
113. For weeks the bombs have failed to shift CON maj out side 1.68-1.73, would need a double digit yougov lead or a thai to do so tonight IMHO.
Adonis confirmed to some extent that Byers was attempting to influence him, even though it seems that in this instance the efforts got nowhere.
Skynews - David and Samantha Cameron are expecting a baby in September.
Apparently Samantha Cameron is pregnant. Due in Autumn.
Sam Cam pregnant.
100 antifrank. None of the above - The Watford Lib Dems are running as if incumbents !! …. afterall they run the rest of the Watford show lock stock and both barrels !!
107 - I think the opponents of US health reform as well as the supporters would disagree with you there.
The opponents would in some ways have the more compelling case. If they’re right, then the chilling impact on medical R&D would be worrying - remember it’s still the huge US medical spending driving the market.
For supporters, they see it as a vindication of Obama as a man who can get things done that others never could - more than a lightweight with a gift of the gab which has been the criticism. To the extent that’s true, it has implications for world affairs too.
Re Watford.. Jack forgot to mention that even on Euro-election day the Conservatives were unable to make an impression in the locals, with 4 LibDems, 1 Labour and 1 Green elected in Watford.
116 - Web Cam Thank You Mam
116. Now thats what I call news management
Tweet: @paulwaugh
Sam Cam having a baby
Jon Craig digging a very big hole for himself on Skynews reporting the Cameron news.
116. Now that’s dedication!
125. Don’t tell me - he says its a cynical ploy ?
125 - What is he saying?
70. “14 RIP Harry Carpenter - we always knew what you meant ‘Arry for a whole generation when boxing was at its prime. The all time world champion commentator, for sure.”
One of the best sports programmes I have ever seen was of Carpenter and Tyson in an edit booth watching old boxing clips. Tyson was quietly spoken and clearly knew a great deal about the history of the sport, there was also a clear mutual respect and rapport between the two of them. It showed a side of Tyson rarely seen, and that later events including the rape conviction have overshadowed.
September? Hmmm, must have been a drunken Xmas party! (only kidding!)
Right now Clegg and Brown up the stakes …. twins or triplets in October ?!?!
Wonder if Gordo will congratulate Cameron at PMQ’s? Maybe he will ask if Ashcroft is going to be the godfather?
125.Yep, and just after he explained how they had lost Ivan last year and had also indicated in the past that they would like to add to their brood.
116: Gordon will be furious at being outmanoeuvred by the Tories on this.
Unless he also has similar happy news to announce?
86. You asked me to flesh out my argument, not to provide “proof”, so I provided you with the full argument. The link to Klein was also not meant as “evidence”, but as a good articulation of a position I agreed with: namely that the main opposition is actually based on disliking the principle of helping out the less fortunate. Are liberal writers not allowed arguments now?
96. Where does he admit its not about costs? Or is this some bizarre logic where arguing one reason for a policy means there can not be other reasons? From the beginning Democrats argued three reasons for this reform: expanding coverage, preventing abuses and limiting cost increases. According to the CBO, it does all three.
As for describing these people as “far left loons”, could you substantiate this a little please? I am now aware of any “loony” positions Ezra Klein has held - perhaps you could enlighten me? Or are all positions left of the American centre “loony” by your definition?
You are also being completely fallacious in attacking my arguments. I do not only link to liberal writers, and actually posted something from George Bush’s speechwriter earlier today. My perspective on the US electorate is not based on these people, but on spending years living in the United States, regularly going back there, and being in frequent contact with American friends online.
I have also never viewed healthcare as a “slam-dunk” electoral winner, and I have stated on here several times that I think it will be a drag on their prospects come November. I also know that you have read and responded to a post where I have stated this. Even my posts earlier today against the Republicans were clarified by one which said that I only meant there were limits to the benefits of opposition now the bill had passed. Why are you arguing so dishonestly?
98 He’s probably less upset than you were when the Berlin Wall came down.
Will Call me Dad be ordering one of these useful gifts from his party’s online shop?
http://shop.conservatives.com/product96992/its-time-for-a-change-baby-grow.aspx
Former Speaker Michael Martin failed to “take control” and prevent police from searching the Commons office of senior Tory MP Damian Green, a report says.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8580014.stm
138: Right..tories win bootle then!
120- That’s a good observation from both ends of the spectrum. There’s no doubt that, ultimately, Obamacare will represent an improvement in healthcare quality for some and a worsening of healthcare quality for others. The blow to healthcare R & D is just one such consequence (note how Canadians often come to the U.S. to receive care, such as the premier of Newfoundland who came to America to have an advanced heart operation… they won’t be doing that after our new healthcare system has eliminated the advantages of receiving care here).
119, 121 - Neither of you have helped answer my conundrum, which is nothing to do with Watford. I shall elaborate. In Ealing Central & Acton, you can get 6/1 on the Lib Dems winning the seat. This seat is every bit as tight as Watford, but with the order Con, Lab, LD. If the Lib Dems can persuade enough Labour voters that they are the anti-Tory party with a chance of success, they could overtake the Conservatives even if the Conservative vote rises.
132 - I’d make Ashcroft godfather if I were them - think of the gifts! Congratulations to them both after the sadness of last year.
Congratulations to the Cameron family. This undoubtedly explains why DC was somewhat off his game earlier in the year.
Anyone remember this headline from 2000 after Leo Blair was born - ‘It’s the son what won it’ predicting a 2nd election win for Blair would be a formality after Leo was born. Did it make any difference? I doubt it.
Why do we continue to think these things matter?
So Gordon will open PMQs with sombre talk of deaths in Afghanistan, then say smoething about baby bonds for the Cameron’s, Dave will have to smile sweetly and mr angry routine will be put on hold for a week…:o)
113 Schards -
*** Betting Post ***
If you’re thinking of buying the Tories on the spreads, take a look at the Con321 market on SPIN. This awards 3pts for first place, 2 for second, 3 for third. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests it is underpriced compared with their headline Conservative Seats figure by around 70 pts or possibly even more.
There are 682 mainland seats, so the total points available is 3792. Add up the Big 3 on SPIN’s prices, and you’ll find there is definitely value on the Buy side.
To be consistent with the current headline Con, Lab and LD figures, I reckon the ‘321′ markets should be at around 1490-1520, 1280-1310, and 840-870 or so, leaving around 137 points for Nats and Others.
Who would take over PM duties when Dave takes Paternity Leave?
143 - has anyone said it matters? All I see are people saying congrats…
146: Hague? Osborne?
I may not be a Conservative supporter but congratulations and best wishes to David and Samantha Cameron - they have a much greater gift than anything that can be won at an election.
140. Do you think there could be a ‘tipping point’ in such areas, when lefty voters en masse switch to the LDs?
145 - After all the if, buts and maybe….imagine if little Willie got to be temporary PM…oh the screaming from Timmy will be funny!
144 -There are 682 mainland seats
Ahem
145. Step forward…..
Nick Clegg.
147.Hague, he is deputy leader and already takes PMQ’s when Brown doesn’t.
Great news about the Cameron’s baby.
how many points is the babe worth?
140 antifrank. But Ealing Acton isn’t Watford. It’s oranges and pears of several years standing.
In an election system that often steamrollers individual contests, Watford is one that bucks the trend.
145. Vince Cable is probably trying to get a meeting to discuss now incase of a LD/Con coalition
148.Stodge, agreed. Congratulations and best wishes to the Cameron family.
151: We had Prescott as PM for a few weeks when Blair was jetting off on holiday.
Still think the deficit is actually down to a strange order for £180bn of sausage rolls at Greggs which might have placed around that time.
151 Well spotted tim - 632 of course. (The 3792 points total is correct).
Young: “A cab for hire” speaking of Byers…
149 - My entirely unresearched suspicion is that it is more likely that lefty voters will switch en masse to the Lib Dems than that the Lib Dems will draw righty voters to their flag.
That’s not for the want of trying. In the last two posts I’ve received three separate missives from the Lib Dems: one from that nice Nick Clegg, one from Sarah Ludford (the local MEP) and one from Bridget Fox, the Lib Dem candidate. The current line of choice is “the Tories can’t win here, vote Lib Dem to get rid of Gordon Brown”.
150 - It wouldn;t be like that, Cameron would still be PM and Hague would chair meetings etc.
Apparently CashGordon was hacked to redirect to Labour’s website…
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100030915/cashgordon-com-is-hacked-by-labour-stooges-the-online-election-gets-nasty/
163: Ah that old chestnut, did they supply a bar graph with it as well?
156 - Thank you, Jack W. That’s an extremely helpful perspective.
162 - and will you be voting for Foxy Bridget?
Genuine BBC website headline: David Cameron’s wife “pregnant”
Do they not believe it can be true?
Are they waiting official publication of the pregnancy test result before removing the quotes?
Congratulations to them both, anyway.
152 -
Congrats to the Cams.
Harriet Harman cannot even find her papers in the House, what a hopeless hopeless politician.
162. I agree with you. The right-leaning push from the LDs is merely to limit the losses on their right flank.
Twitter andrewrawnsley
‘@paulwaugh Sam Cam having a baby >> So if he gets to Number 10 it won’t just be the deficit, cuts and tax rises keeping him awake at night.’
144. Thanks for that, i’ll take a look
168: Having googled her, foxy is not the first thing which springs to mind.
167 - As of today, I’m undecided. I really disliked Nick Clegg’s idiotic attacks on analysts reporting City jitters about a hung Parliament. Much of the Lib Dems’ election material is deliberately misleading. I tend not to vote for parties that I think are deliberately misleading me.
I may well vote Green.
Baby Cam: Just checked Polling Report history.
Cheire’s pregnancy was announced on 18 Nov 2000. Most polls showed a bounce for Labour after it
3 Nov Mori Lab 42%
25 Nov Mori Lab 47%
7 Nov Gallup Lab 45%
13 Dec Gallup Lab 47%
5 Nov ICM Lab 40%
3 Dec ICM Lab 44%
So we should expect a poll bounce for the Tories
Anyone betting on the gender of Sam Cam’s baby?
hattie is rubbish at speaking maybe she should get her union hubby to talk for her when hes elected to a safe all female labour seat !!
poor sarah brown - she’ll be forced to take one for the red team a third time…
I think BenM’s obsession for Karl Marx is in danger of falling foul of Labour’s ‘extreme, fetishistic p*rn*gr*phy’ legislation.
Just kidding — police these days are too busy arresting people for taking photos of St Paul’s Cathedral!
175 antifrank. One vote for true socialism then !!
179 - That conjured up images that I would rather conjure down again, if that’s ok by you.
178: I’m guessing Evns (roughly)
179. Will she be forced to change at Bakerloo ?
177 - It’s twins.
Who fills in for Dave when he is on paternity leave?
175. I’m in a very safe Lib Dem seat and tempted to vote Green. But I probably won’t as I’d never forgive myself if the lost was lost.
179.Incorrect, like Samantha Cameron, it would be the fourth time. The Brown’s lost their first child Jennifer, they now have two little boys.
168 - the BBC don’t think Tories get pregnant, but are instead the product of eggs, face-huggers and naive John Hurt-types…
Byers’ members interests entry is quite interesting. Wonder if there’s more to come on this?
And I pray Cam’s baby won’t be forced to get an ID card when he/she turns 16.
179 - It’ll be for the 4th sadly.
Super news for the Camerons! Congratulations both!
wonderful news for DC - if you think what they’ve both been through, it can only be great for them to know this - whatever happens in May
186 Frank B. “I’d never forgive myself if the lost was lost.”
You’ve lost me !!
183. It’s funny you say that. They’ve had 2 girls and a boy, so I would guess another boy would be odds on. Could do with an intervention from Prof. Robert Winston.
185. Apprently Vince cable has been in talks with cameron and has told GMTV that the possibility of him running the country for a bit was discussed.
191, indeed, and now i feel very bad
179. If you believe the science, men who cycle a lot are more likely to have girls…
A bit of trend developing.
Guido - Wince Cable
“In a “go-back-to-your-constituency” moment Vince even said he was “ready to serve“. It was a tad embarrassing then when Whitehall made it clear what was going. They said they were amazed what old Vince got out of a twenty-minute meeting – which he requested – and they hosted “out of politeness“.
The senior moment unravelled very quickly and far from being unprecedented these meetings were sanctioned by the Cabinet Office as a courtesy to the opposition and took place before the 2005 election as well. It’s a shame the old soothsayer didn’t “foresee” this spin unravelling…”
144 - Richard Nabavi has made a good spot here, I can’t really see a downside to it.
Those worried about the Tories dropping below 300 seats can just take out a 9/1 bet on the 275/299 band.
Dave on paternity leave arrangements.
Second cartoon.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
195 They’ve had 2 girls and a boy, so I would guess another boy would be odds on.
Are you a betting man, Frank? If so, I’d like to bet against you.
Oh god I’m making mistakes all over the place.
194. It should read ‘if the seat was lost’
195. Should be 2 boys and a girl.
Is “Seant” the same as “SeanT”? Very much doubt it.
Is there any way for PB to police this?
From the BBC website:
“If Mr Cameron were to become prime minister after the forthcoming general election, it would continue a modern trend for babies in Downing Street.”
Tantrums, crying and sulks?
Do you remember DC saying Sam would be his ’secret weapon’ in the campaign? With the arrival of BabCam, we now know what he meant.
195 - Elywn is a boy
That’s actually his middle name - his first name is Arthur - but they call him by the middle one for some reason.
Can we bet on how long it’ll take tim to start making more tasteless references about the births and deaths of Cameron’s children?
201: Two words for you tim
Prescott
Harman
It’s a wonder the country is still here.
204 -
204 - nappies and rocking horses?
204 Tabbers.
164. That story misses the point by miles, as picked up in the comments, it was only 2nd on the trends because people were taking the p1ss out of it! It also wasn’t anything to do with ‘Labour stooges’ but simply there’s a bored bunch of internet nerds who hate them.
Even if a mother had 10 girls in a row, it makes no difference to the biological odds of her next giving birth to a boy.
209-11 - at least there’ll be a toy farm for the new arrival.
The latest delightful example of topical Labour humour on Twitter:
“@pr4wn How to combat #cashgordon #toryfail Sam Cam haz foetus. Another f*cking Tory mong in the hatchery.”
This is the party the Tories are fighting. This is the modern British left.
The original was, of course, not asterisked.
213 - Do you bet? If so, can I bet against you?
175 antifrank
“I really disliked Nick Clegg’s idiotic attacks on analysts reporting City jitters about a hung Parliament.”
What is strange is he attacks the Tories as trying to blackmail the UK regarding a possible gilt strike / interest rate spike but then tries his own effort by claiming there will be rioting on the streets if Vince isn’t involved in dealing with the deficit. A good understanding of the politics of fear from Nick.
213 Same father each time? After all, it’s his chromosone that determines the sex.
RT @ncguk Over at Conservative HQ Cameron is strutting around, flies undone, slapping his wang and shouting “How’s that for a swing to the right?”
paulwaugh
SamCam baby names sweepstake. For a boy, Benjamin (after Disraeli?). For a girl - |Mary (after his mum) or Maggie (to shore up core vote)
199 “Wince Cable” - love it!
215: Brown will take Farmy Farm with him to console himself during his decades of sulking to come.
203. Think it is, SeanT has had various cases before.
Epic fail from Harman and the government over this issue.
Crack down on Lobbyists and no action/clamping down on MPs
Protect the gravy train!
Tories must push this mercilessly now - force a back down.
BBCLauraK
Lobby: The Browns will be ’sending congratulations’ to the Camerons ‘very soon’ on the news they are expecting another child
223 - but nothing that penicillin couldn’t clear up.
Harman announces Byers to be investigated…are all the others off the hook? Hewitt for example.
@223:
Most of which were treatable with a course of antibiotics.
Someone could try and work out what point SamCam’s cycle was at for conception, that has some effect.
199
The Lib/Dems will be quietly satisfied. Vince Cable freelancing is something they can do without…
@226:
DAMMIT.
Well, what makes you think Dave is the father?
(Gizza job, Draper!
)
226: You can hear the gritting of teeth from here.
229 - I hope she didn’t leave her cycle in Dave’s care; it would have ended up stolen.
205 Cameron employed his secret weapon first.
231 - You snooze, you lose.
227 Byers referred hinmself. I think we can read from that that the government have no intention of dealing with this.
227 Byers referred hinmself. I think we can read from that that the government have no intention of dealing with this.
215. Yep, just like the comment section of Guido is full of pleasant chat.
237. I think it’s just parliamentary convention for MPs to refer themselves before someone else does.
Re: 144 & 160: Thinking about the LD numbers, let’s assume 60 seats so that’s 180 with perhaps 100 seats where the party comes second so that’s 200 adding up to 380 points.
Now, about the third places - with Greens, BNP, UKIP and sundry Independents standing, there may be a number of seats where the LDs risk finishing fourth or worse. Four hundred third places makes 780 and leaves by my reckoning 70 or so seats where the LDs aren’t in the first three.
That would include seats in Wales and Scotland plus some in England and looks plausible to this observer.
So, I would sell on your LD points number and buy on your Nats and others numbers to allow for the Green/UKIP/BNP/Independents.
162. I’ve been quite surprised by the LD literature. Not from “the Tories can’t win here, vote Lib Dem to get rid of Gordon Brown” but from the topics in the literature like “Violent crime rises under Labour” and support our troops. It seems quite right-wing and must mean they’re trying to appeal to that segment of the electorate.
@195:
As far as I know, there’s no discernible correlation between the sexes of successive births.
If I do a Camshaft joke will all the sensitive Tories blow a fuse?
240 Yes, but no-one else has been referred (despite apparant claims of influence) and Gordon Brown declares the matter ‘investigated’ in a day before the programme airs.
Government are hiding I am afraid.
I cannot see that this Dispatches revelations will be good for Labour at all.
239 — Hey, like here is a paragon of civility!
Prentice becomes 2nd Labour backbencher to name colleague Byers, saying his conduct is shaming.
@244:
Is it funny?
244 - OHC or OHV?
I see that the UNITE pickets are calling for some indecent exposure.
At least Cam really does have kids, tim.
And at least he really loves his kids, unlike a certain other Labour smearer on here.
I thought Harman was a Lawyer before going into parliament? Her speaking style is dreadful, full of umm’s and err’s
213. Even if a mother had 10 girls in a row, it makes no difference to the biological odds of her next giving birth to a boy.
Well of course not. However what if a father had 10 girls in a row? That is what matters biologically.
254 - it would take all night?
IGMC …
244. We are not ’sensitive’.
We are ‘compassionate.
249 - Haven’t thought of it yet, just getting clearance from the delicate h£rd.
On the sex of children and cycles, previous boys etc.
Anyone who believes that stuff might like to wonder why India and China haven’t cracked the “Boy Diet/Position/Angle of the Moon on Chicken Entrails” sex selector solution.
252 - What a fine advertisement for the Conservative party you are.
253. A lot of lawyers are like that, thought. Advocacy and oratory aren’t the same thing. Unfortunately Hattie never seems to have grasped the distinction.
Shut the f*** up tim you c***
Mike, UKPR reporting that this is not a new poll. It is in fact the “ICM” poll!
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2525
259. thought = though
257 - or just “passionate” in your leader’s case.
Did DC not say on Titchmarsj that we’d be seeing “a lot more ” of Sam ?
Nobody picked up the hint..
258 so you dont actually have a joke, although you think for some reason the situation demands one? But you haven’t actually thought it up yet?
An audience with tim. Bring a duvet.
242 Lib Dems are supposed to have right wing economic policies and left wing social policies.
261 - Yup, a real charmer.
260 - Was she a solicitor or a barrister? The former do not do much advocacy, do they?
268 - Isn’t that libertarians?
From guido’s comments
“Martin Day BBC political correspondent says:
March 22, 2010 at 4:16 pm
EXCLUSIVE FROM 10 DOWNING STREET
Suggestion for Labour counter attack:
Announce that Sarah Brown is also carrying David Cameron’s baby”
241 stodge - Not enough seconds.
In 2005, the LibDems were got 62 firsts, 181 seconds, 361 thirds, equivalent to 909 points.
This time around, I’d expect (assuming SPIN’s headline figures are about right) something like 57 firsts, 162 seconds, 360 thirds for the LibDems.
For the Conservatives, on the same assumption: 334, 214, 77
For Labour: 224, 236, 155
You can play around with different scenarios on Electoral Calculus.
Of couse, this all assumes the SPIN main market spreads are about right. If you think they overestimate the Tories, you can sell on the main Con seats market and buy on the Con321 market.
269 - She is QC
272 Ghost: Excellent! Is that our Martin Day?
272 - You broke the 321 market.
Its gone.
Nick Robinson seems to have fallen down a hole. Nothing new on his blog since Thursday when, to plenty of surprise, he was still Ashcrofting.
274. Impossible to be sure - someone called Martin Day posts on there (a lot)..
275 tim - That’s a shame.
274.Possibly not, a Martin Day on ConHome was complaining about a “labour smearer” on Guido was using his name.
274 - Blimey!
267. ‘Lib Dems are supposed to have right wing economic policies and left wing social policies.’
I hope not. Neither of those sounds very popular!
273 - Harperson was a solicitor. The reason she’s a QC is because she took that special Parliamentary QC-ship available to all lawyers who are MPs - after 5 years in the house, I believe.
UPDATE: It turns out that this wasn’t a new poll at all. The Resolution Centre had asked some question for its own purposes but the voting intention numbers were from the ICM poll that was published a couple of days later.
273 - That’s an honorific given to many MPs who are lawyers, whether they are solicitors or barristers. Harriet Harman was a solicitor (and was famously once found guilty of contempt of court - a very harsh decision). She was made a QC when she became Solicitor General.
267 - that, I think, would be a Liberal Party in the truest sense of the word.
SamCam pregnant, a good day to bury bad news Mr Byers, if only you could have hung on til budget day.
Andrew Mackinlay in Commons complaining certain of his colleagues with outside interests, hardly turn up to vote “I’ve forgotten what some of them look like…”
LibDems right wing economic policies? I don’t think so! After Clegg talked about savage cuts (a phrase he hasn’t since used) LibDem poll numbers went down. LibDems are in parliament to be a pressure group for more spending, they should never stray too far from their reason for being or they will suffer at the polls.
286. Mike have you heard from Peter Riddel when we can expect a regular Populus poll? Are they missing this month because of the marginals poll?
trying to get the retailiation in first?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8580593.stm
How nice that Dave and Sam Cam are going to have a new baby after all the tragedy they’ve been through recently. Congrats to both of them.
I’m sure that, as a politican, Dave would understand us immediately looking at the political betting implications of his happy news.
So what are they likely to be? My guess is a moderate uptick in his personal popularity, reminding everyone what a jolly nice fellow he is.
Who’d want to answer a question negatively about a good family man at the time such joy? Few of us. Therefore I’d be surprised is his approval ratings don’t see a slight climb, and maybe even a minor (a point or so - so MOE and therefore undetectable) increase for the Tories.
Dave is happy, Dave is fairly popular, Dave leads the Tories, therefore maybe the Tories are okay. That kinda thing.
I have an image of Cameron cradling the baby in his arms, a faint halo surrounding them both, from the clouds above Tony Blair looks down in his big white nightgown, arms outstretched, intoning “Truly, you are the son of God.”
I do feel a bit sorry for Gordon, generally you wouldn’t have to but remember he thought that Cherie Blair insulted him WITH HER DIRTY WOMB.
Sam Cam’s pregnancy makes Senora Clegg’s comments about being able to take five weeks off even more nasty and cheap!
298. I suspect he’ll get a short bounce before going back to where he was.
I wonder how Mad Hitch will find a way to poar venom on the Camerons for their happy news? I noted yesterday he was attacking Sam Cam for the way she speaks - Coming from someone that speaks and looks like a complete oddball and infact IS a complete oddball, I thought it was bit rich.
298. “My guess is a moderate uptick in his personal popularity, reminding everyone what a jolly nice fellow he is.”
Was that ever established in the first place?
301. As did Sam
304 - And a lost deposit.
305. Tim, if the Tories win the election William Hague might actually be acting Prime Minister when Cam goes on paternity leave!!!!!!!
How many weeks paternity leave are men now entitled to thanks to Labour?
303.The knowing looks of Diane Abbott said yes, he’s a nice guy, what more evidence do you want.
305. Not on this occasion..
302. He has functioning sperm! What more proof do you need?
296
How can they possibly investigate such serious allegations in half a day,they are seriously taking the piss.
Will Mr Harman keep his second job if he becomes an MP?
Eh up. Someones been deleated.
OT
Betting alert:
http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/03/22/diary-bizarre-budget-bets/
Examples: Other, more sensible odds on phrases for the Budget speech, include: Interest Rates 1/10, Fiscal Stimulus 1/5, Climate Change 1/3, Election Evens, Tory Cuts 5/1, British Airways 12/1, Balls 16/1, Slash and Burn 25/1 and Workmanlike 25/1.
Congrats to Mr. and Mrs. Cameron
305. “The knowing looks of Diane Abbott said yes”
Au contraire. In any case, I was busier looking at her apparent beard on Thursday.
302 Mad Hitch would probably say “How convenient that Sam Cam, wife of “Call Me Dave” has got herself pregnant in time for the election. Of course, she’s just trying to distract us from the fact that her empty-headed marxist husband is dragging the sleaze-ridden so-called Conservative Party down to its fourth defeat in a row.”
Some very quick observations re: yesterday’s historic US House vote (then back to my day job!)
>>> compromise brokered by President Obmama to pass health reform is demonstration that he is NOT a democratic socialist, let alone a marxist-leninist-stalinist-maoist.
>>> have been doubting my pet theory that we’re doing modern-dress reinactment of the 1930s BUT the way the GOP is reprising the anti-New Deal playbook has me thinking that perhaps we are!
>>> Congressional GOP leadership (all there is right now given balkanization of Republican presidential preferences) clearly believes that No, Nay, Never strategy will be a winner with swing voters come November. BUT personally doubt this. For one thing, swing voters gave their support to Obama knowing that he was pledged to health care reform. For another, these voters appear less concerned with specific ins & out of proposals, than with imperative to do something, anything to get things moving.
>>> Democratic messaging has been a mess, up to now. Including failure to properly deploy one of the great communicators in US political history. BUT it’s staring to look like that is changing. Which is good news for Ds, bad for Rs.
>>> Regarding closeness of yesterday’s House vote, note that Steny Hoyer had more than one ace up his sleeve. That is, there were Dem members who would have voted aye IF their votes were needed, who voted nay since they were not.
>>> The above point is important, because the impact of the health care fight upon the midterm elections will differ from state to state, district to district.
>>> While GOP beltway bandits believe their Nayism is a winner with swing voters, isn’t the real driver the intransigence of base Republican voters. Which is major limitation for Republican candidates in 2010, just as it appears to be (leastways from evidence on PB) this year for David Cameron’s Conservatives.
>>> In contrast, Obama was aided by fact that HIS base was (and is) more likely to give him leaway. Just as Labour base was for Tony Blair in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and (apparently) for Gordon Brown in 2010.
>>> In the 1930s the Republican Party decried Social Security as socialism. In the 1960s they did the same re: Medicare (health care for seniors). Now in the 2010s the GOP is repeating the same mantra. Is this a winning formula? So far not. But time will tell. And the timeline will extend beyond this year.
298 - What was nasty about them, or cheap? Partners at international law firms cannot take five weeks off work. That is just a fact.
Dave’s eyes, Sam’s nose and Gordon Brown’s debts…
316 - so she’s jealous that Sam has a more flexible job?
308.Government line will not stand, they will have to say more that this on Byers etc.
*** BETTING POST ***
Market up at Hills
No 1/7
Yes 4/1
Will The Chancellor Delay/Scrap the Planned Fuel Duty Rise Due to Take Effect 1st April 2010?
314.
@311:
“Cracking pair o’ norks” 66/1, “My postilion has been struck by lightning” 120/1, “ponceybooting gaylords” 720/1, “wazzock” 7/1, “introduce me to Gladstone” 6/1, “Marrowbone jelly” evens.
Some magnificent whinging from the Labour droogs on Twitter.
“Can we get back to policy?”
310 Damn - what gossip did I miss?
316
Says who?
They can’t get pregnant either and take maternity leave?
315 - I asked S&S and he didn’t answer - but will the Republicans stand on a programme of promising to repeal this healthcare legislation?
111, Bob Sykes - so do you believe that the New Deal and it’s implications for the electoral success of Franklin D. Roosevelt, had zero impact upon the United Kingdom and the rest of the world?
319 chris_g00 - Yes, they are digging a hole for themselves. This looks like another textbook example of Brown demonstrating how not to deal with events.
317 - Thats for the future.
At the moment it has Hagues gravitas.
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/9572.jpg
@323:
That’s what Sarah says whenever Gordon’s “in the mood”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGOohBytKTU
316.That isn’t a fact. A partner at a law firm can take 5 weeks off, what if she became pregnant? Some fact..!
The Yummy Mummy
http://www.flickr.com/photos/conservatives/4443528374/
330. I’m more certain than I’ve ever been about anything in my life- that Gordon keeps his socks on when he’s ‘getting on with the job’.
From tonight’s TV news: The Red Shits are planning to “shut down” Bangkok on the 27, in five days.
When do you land, Seant?
Exit question: why do they all seem to have only three teeth?
326 - I understand they have said so for the 2010 elections (although it’s meaningless as Obama has a veto), and key contenders like Romney have already put down a marker for 2012 repeal.
323. Sally Bercow on the case via twitter
“Am delighted for them. But still think they should call baby Etonia :-)”
“and Bullingdon for a boy? “
From Paul Waugh: the anatomy of a hashtag.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/03/cash-gordon-becoming-crash-gordon.html
The chart is especially interesting. I imagine Coates and Elder will be getting a round spanking tonight. What kind of spoon forgets to sanitize their inputs?
“President Obmama” That’s a good one, SSI. Can I borrow it, or is it trademarked?
329 Well, it has his looks, at any rate.
336 - she really is a numpty.
336, what a silly bitch Mrs. Bercow is.
Morris is a good name
Morris Cameron, Conservative Prime Minister for six consecutive terms
319 - And what a classic phrase from Lord Adonis:
“I have not the faintest idea why Mr Byers said what he said to the undercover reporter but I notice he has withdrawn the comments he made unreservedly.”
So that’s all right then.
330. Gordon in the mood?
It’s a thought.
336 Still doing all she can to undermine her husband’s chances of re-election, then.
318 - I doubt it. I imagine she thoroughly enjoys working with her clients on very interesting cases and earning an absolute fortune to boot.
http://www.dlapiper.com/miriam_gonzalez/
She probably made well over £300,000 last year, which puts her in a different league to the other wives I would guess. It probably makes the Cleggs the richest of the three couples on annual take home I would guess. She has absolutely nothing at all to be jealous about.
341. Am surprised she hasn’t named a son Marlborough.
331 - That’s a statutory entitlement and very diffeent to taking off five weeks to campaign with your husband.
341 - Nice try, of course I suspect they will avoid James especially as the director James Cameron failed. Of course if it is a girl the obvious name would be Victoria given what is likely in May.
Southam observer - What tosh re law firms. They are very flxible if people want to take time off - you just don’t get paid if it is for a couple of months. However, as a well paid partner, you can afford it if you so choose.
Where did you get the idea that lawyers can’t take time off? Are yours telling you that and sending you big bills per chance?
Congratulations to the Cameron’s on their math skills: extrapolating from addition to multiplication!
PBers who doubt that such news is indeed very newsworthy with respect to the upcoming GE, should note that here in the US, the BIG news for many voters was NOT the House vote, but instead:
>>> interviews by Tiger Woods in his leadup to next weekend’s Master’s tournament at Augusta; and
>>> outcome of this weekend’s games in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
One thing that both Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner can agree on: they wish that C-SPAN could have 1/10th of the ratings enjoyed by Tiger & March Madness!
What about Margaret? Or even better, Maggie.
For a boy, it would have to be Anthony (shortened to Tony) in honour of Mr Cameron’s heroes Benn and Blair.
Timesonline - Army to sack 500 soldiers because of troop ‘cap’
Does anyone know how many spin doctors are employed by the MOD?
351 If it’s a boy, the baby could be named Derek (after Conway) Nicholas (after Winterton) or Andrew (after Mackay).
If a girl, Julie (after Kirkbride).
345 - £300K? Double it and you might be getting close.
349 - You’re broadly right. But why irritate colleagues and lose out on something close to six figures just so you can deliver a few Focuses? It’s all utterly ridiculous. Clegg wouldn’t take a month off to do photocopying and indexing if his wife had a big trial coming up so why should she? Sensible woman, in my opinion.
345: She probably made well over £300,000 last year,
That depends on whether she has equity. Most partners at DLA don’t and get someway less than that.
350 - Which is why she said she could not affrd to take the time off. It’s really not that difficult to understand.
New Thread
316 - SO I work directly for partners who run a market-leading practice (extremely specialised and none of our competitor firms do exactly what our team does). We have 2 partners running the team. One of them took 8 weeks off in summer 2008 and the other took 5 weeks off in the summer/autumn of 2009. Partners taking very long holidays (officially called sabbaticals, so as to make it sound important) is extremely common - after all, they own the business! Miriam Gonzalez is doubtless extremely important to her group (as she heads the firm’s international trade practice), but you cna guarantee that she ad the firm can easily come to an arrangement if need be - she probably spends a great deal of time travelling between DLA’s Brussels and London offices as it is.
I’m sure that antifrank would never leave his team to cope without him! Frankly given that antifrank occupies a similarly-exalted role at his firm I find it amazing that he is able to contriubute to pb so much!
If a girl, Julie (after Kirkbride).
by Sean Fear March 22nd, 2010 at 5:15 pm
I notice Julie is at Westminster every day, not like a lot of the Labour MPs that are not standing at the election.
Pity we can not doc their wages for not turning up.