Does this Tory ad flatter Gordon too much?
March 20th, 2010
Doesn’t the uniform make him look better than he is?
Launched this morning is the latest Tory poster which seeks to link Brown with UNITE with the BA strike.
Politically it’s clearly the right thing to do - but has the party made a cock-up in the way it’s executed.
To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good.
The idea of Brown as “captain of the nation” as it tackles difficult conditions is one, surely, that Labour HQ won’t be concerned about.
It’s this portrayal where you look first and I wonder whether the core message gets lost.
I rate this as a Tory own goal.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st
FPT - the worst thing about it is that the Photoshop job does not even look like JGB! It could just as well be Jack Straw.
Reminds me of Scooch, UK’s 2007 Eurovision entry!
Mike agreed.
I don’t think it is aimed at convincing new support per se. Will it do what it is intended which is to keep the core motivated until the election is called, and the answer is yes.
Trust me, this is not a good look…
He looks like Jack Straw aka The Demon Headmaster!
I really think people are reading far too much into this.
Sweet BA could be “sweet b*gger all”?
Almost nonse of the new crop of posters have been other than mediocre. The Death Tax one was good, otherwise they’ve been pants.
This is average. It’s also irrelevant. What matters is the reality of Unite and Labour’s relationship, the seeming failure of the strike and Brown being a creature of a union.
I doubt it’ll have much influence either way.
nothing makes Gordo look good.
O/T repost from previous thread
“24 - oh dear Roger.
I am over a certain age and I remember a friend taking a beating for daring to cross a picket line.
I remember the more extreme left organising in schools in inner London. I still to this day am amazed at the leaflet a mate gave me that he was handed at Tulse Hill comp. (You probably didn’t mix with people like that at your school rog)
I remember clearly the day the striking miners thought an acceptable tactic would be to drop a lump of concrete onto a car on a motorway, said tactic ending in death. I remember being accosted by a Socialist worker guy collecting for the miners on that very day. I remember my disgust when he shouted victory to the miners and when I asked him if he thought that killing strikebreakers was acceptable on the way to “victory” he said that if he hadnt tried to cross the picket line he wouldnt have died.
I’m not a violent man Rog, but I had to be held back that day.
I remember the wife of my local Labour MP telling me I obviously wanted children to die because I did not accept nuclear disarment as a sensible strategy.
Shame you Labourites didnt give a shit about Iraqi kids eh??
In short Rog, your lot have got more to worry about from people with long memories”
Also, a reposted link from the back end of the prior thread. Ed Milipede has decided that the best way to respond to a crippling deficit and a trillion pounds of debt is to unnecessarily increase public spending by providing every child with free school meals:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5854653/ed-milibands-new-investment-vs-cuts-battleground.thtml
I don’t think its too bad.
Presuambly very few of these posters will actually appear anywhere anyway?
It does seem the Tories have learned the lesson of the “airbrushed” poster, which is, use billboards and posters for negative campaigning and PPB’s for largely positive messages.
Having a laugh on here about the lefties on here blabbling on about Thatcher again.
“But, but, but… she was divisive and everyone hated her!”
… :”She was democratically elected three times and never lost an election.”
“Well, yes, but more people voted against her than for her!”
….: “But that’s been the case with every government since 1950-x. That’s how our system works.”
“Waaaaaaaah! It’s not fair!”
Nick Clegg wants to be Home Secretary and have Paddy Ashdown at Defence as his price for a coalition with Cameron.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/20/nick-cleggs-coalition-demands-clarke-to-treasury-ashdown-to-defence-himself-to-home/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
A particularly charming example of the tea party in action:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ik4f1dRbP8&feature=video_response
Meanwhile Republicans fall over themselves to praise the movement…
it just left me confused! couldnt care less how brown looks!
15, ah yes, read that earlier. Incidentally, I want Beyonce Knowles to give me a lapdance, and Maria Sharapova to give me a massage with a happy finish.
Still, entertaining to read the deluded meanderings of the nation’s foremost cactus murderer.
Was amused to see he doesn’t want Cable to be Chancellor.
15. Can’t wait for May 7th when not only do we have the sight of removal men shipping Brown out of Downing Street to look forward to, but we also have the prospect seeing all the hopes and dreams of the Lib-Dumbs turning to ashes yet again.
19, Mr, Gin, I recommend this video to enthuse you about Lib Dem prospects:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4fQsPTjQpo
15. Seems waay to high a price for me. Hopefully the yellow peril will remain as irrelevant as ever. What is Vince going to think of this?
The photoshop of Gordon Brown is fairly appalling, the words however are cutting. Few could fail to see the connection between Unite’s money and a compromised, ineffectual Gov’t.
A masterpiece of flattery ? No - The poster is aimed at the tabloid reader – not PB’s finest minds.
FPT: Free school meals for all. From http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5854653/ed-milibands-new-investment-vs-cuts-battleground.thtml
the Tories are saying… ‘let’s residualise, let’s make the welfare state just for the poor’ but [this goes against] all the evidence in terms of maintaining public support [for the welfare state]
It’s the continuation of the Blairite project of making clients of us all. Free school meals doesn’t sound much, but if it costs, say, 1 pound a day to provide a packed lunch, that’s 200 pounds a year after tax for each child. Once you have given people money it is hard to take it away. Even if you tell them it leads to lower taxes, tax reductions has a bit of a hit and miss effect - whereas every parent will know that their weekly shopping bill will go up. And if you take it away, tim & co will be telling us that poor people are being disadvantaged - yet introducing something like this means that I - an average paid single person - would be taxed so rich people’s children can have free food.
Look at how hard it will be to take away tax credits from the average-and-better paid who currently get them. We should be encouraging people to make rational decisions for themselves (eg, can we afford more children?) rather than fund their every whim by the State.
Unfortunately the next Government will not do what it needs to - the utter destruction of the apparatus of the State. The Tories need to make Britain fundamentally ungovernable so this sort of thing can never be done to us again.
It makes him look like a Nazi - which is precisely what he is.
Every time I think I get to grips with America I watch something like that and just get even more perplexed.
Odd country. (Lovely in parts though).
Let’s face it, the Tory’s have done nothing but shoot own goals fro three months now…
Clegg coalition conditions? Nonsense. There would only be one. Cable to the Treasury. No LD could serve in a government with the idiot Osbourne as Chancellor. Cameron would probably be relieved to get rid of him.
Wow
guidofawkes
Tories Launch Facebook Campaign Against Whelan: Timed to coincide with the Unite strike the Tories have launched … http://bit.ly/d8p6sj
25 above should be directed at post 16.
I think i was first to mention this mike.
FPT: The new Tory poster has made the crucial mistake of making brown appear young and fresh. Doh!
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6855/cameron_unveils_new_tory_poster.html
by weathercock March 20th, 2010 at 10:18 am
26. So a 66 yr old Marxist would serve in a Tory government, then? Cable is the most over rated politician in modern times. I think he cuts a pathetic figure.
A sharp uniform always makes you look better, as Hitler realised.
A full-length photo would have made Brown look more like he is - fat and jowly. Maybe sitting down when it is harder to hide your gut, or with the jacket open.
19. There goes Harrogate!
27, interesting move by the Tories.
Definately something of the Reich about him.
29. …….. But what can you expect from an advertising group that put out that photoshopped view of Cameron at the beginning of January.
Are the company that the Tories are using truly professional? They seem dumb to me.
“To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good.
The idea of Brown as “captain of the nation” as it tackles difficult conditions is one, surely, that Labour HQ won’t be concerned about.”
Lol it seems, perhaps, that this reinforces Smithson’s own opinion of Brown - that he is an admirer of his. Nobody living in reality could come to such an absurd conclusion.
Agree.
And it’s narrow core vote stuff.
Re school meals.
Excellent stuff from Labour.
Compulsory school dinners for everyone please, packed lunches full of crap affect kids learning.
The 1980 Act which did away with nutritional standards on school dinners was one of the most stupid, expensive counter productive policies ever introduced in this country.
15 James B - What a joke. If Iain Martin is right, Clegg is living in a fantasy world.
Firstly there’s not a snowflake’s chance in hell of Clegg being allowed by his own party to form a coalition with the Conservatives, even if he were invited to do so, which is in itself extremely unlikely. Secondly the idea of him being able to dictate the choice of Chancellor is laughable, and I think just shows how the LibDems simply have no concept of the magnitude and difficulty of the challenges the next government will face.
Not really sure about the BA/FA joke as it doesn’t really scan easily - Sweet FA is hardly the most common phrase around these days and Sweet BA sounds quite positive.
Even though I know exactly what the poster means, I suspect to many people, the uniform and the main headline will leave a “feeling” that GB is on the side of BA.
BA Strike: This is your Pilot Gordon Brown Speaking. http://ow.ly/1qtbpQ
33. Interesting range of options as well, such as donate directly to a campaign against Mr Harriet Harman
15. Absolute nonsense. Another example of Tory fiction. Clegg will not give any hints that would allow either side to claim the LDs as potential coalition supporters in the event of a hung parliament. There is so much to lose.
36 - so you’re in favour of taxing the poor to give free food to rich kids?
He looks like Blakey from On The Buses.
How anybody thinks it makes him look good is beyond me. Slightly less bad than usual, maybe…
I think the message is spot on though.
“To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good.”
BS, it makes him look like ‘Blakey’ from On-the-Buses* even down to the scrawny neck.
36 tim - Except that the policy might have made some sense when money was flowing freely, when Labour didn’t do it. Instead they just flushed gargantuan sums down the drain.
Introducing such a measure now when Brown has inculcated a ‘culture of waste’ into the whole public sector is not practicable, unfortunately.
Poster reminds me of ‘Blakey’ from on the buses.
The target is right but the execution is awful.
Dreadful. Tory quality control not working in this instance.
33, 39 - Plus it gives the impression that the UNITE thing was planned as you can’t create a site like that in a few days.
I’m glad the Tories switch gear into attack mode.
Sure, Mike Smithson used many very unflattering pix of Gordo to illustrate his posts in the past; I think however that the Tories would appear too “nasty” were they painting the Prime Minister as an ugly and old and fat and tired face.
The message (Labour = Greedy Corrupt Unions) get through, in my mind, which is all that matters, shurely.
Purely a matter of subjectivity as to whether Brown look good on the poster, but I fear, Mike, that you may be being somewhat too poetical in your analysis. “Captain of the nation” certainly isn’t what floating voters will think (and if they do, they’ll consider how even a captain can crash his plane).
The Tories have nailed Labour on the strikes - that’s the main thing.
On topic: Poor poster. Ditch this one, CCHQ.
Scooch video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBOnDcmckdc
37 Tim .. i would prefer the money to go to soldiers on the front line so that they can actually have a vote..Labour must remember that the vast majority of the military will return home and will one day be allowed to vote..
Browns free school meals for all is another of his stupid dividing lines, so he can acuse the nasy Tories of literally taking food from childrens mouths, despite the budget black hole were in
Of course if McTw@t was to win the election, this pledge would disappear along with all his other mibdless promises
As someone who does pictorial stuff for a living I have to say that if I turned out a totally inept bit of photoshopping like that, my editor would throw it straight back.
48. Indeed. Trying to make inroads in attacking a candidate by virtue of his physical appearance could seriously backfire.
Anyone else seen the 1993 Canadian PC PBB that many interpreted to be mocking of Jean Chrétien’s face?
The scale of the three components in the image are intentionally incorrect to show what a buffon he looks like even in a smart ‘captain’s’ uniform. The impact is in the text, B***** A**
When are the Tories gonna use some positive posters “Vote for Us - we’re not them” is hardly working is it
Good poster. The picture is Gordon in his younger, less haggard days and they should have found an up-to-date one of the decrepit gargoyle he now is. But it’s the slogan that hits home. Sweet ‘B*gger All’ is exactly what he has done.
Vince is to the Lib’s as John Barnes was to England, had a good game and traded on that for the rest of the time, a lot like Gordon really.
The food kids eat at lunch time is as important as the books in the library, and 100% take up makes it much cheaper per head to provide.
59 And Gordon’s good game was when exactly?
47 - Of course you can. That’s the beauty of the internet. Anyway, there were many months notice since UNITE shot their bolt at Christmas.
Not sure about the poster. It’s better than the NHS one, that’s for sure. Calling it an own goal is going too far. Labour=Unions=ruined Easter travel plans is the right message.
It was the right message years ago when the unions mattered. Now they are down to the rump and STILL led by dinosaurs they are less risky to target.
36 It’s a pity that today’s parents (the majority of whom will have been secondary pupils under Labour) don’t seem to have been taught the basics of nutrition, and that their children should eat, for example, some sandwiches and a piece of fruit for lunch.
And to be honest I don’t understand why “eating crap” affects that afternoon’s education (or what “crap” is in this context), what you need is sufficient calories to be able to concentrate for a few hours.
Poster should have had Brown in the ill fitting combination of flak jacket, Darth Vader helmet, blue suit and beer gut.
60..Tim..obviously you dont think that parents should decide what their children eat at lunchtime then..very soviet
This free school meals for all stuff sounds like empty promises to me. How is it going to be funded?
I thought the poster needed a Noddy character to go alongside Big Ears. Perhaps the Churchill dog with a Whelan face?
Boring. The voters really won’t get worked up by this one at all. It’s the Tory posters that people react to http://www.moneymad.org/David_Cameron_defaced_posters.htm
61 - He was a phenomenal opposition politician, still is really and thats his problem.
Driven to post yet again
They should have photoshopped some wire rimmed specs on him and then he really would have looked like Goebbles.
Otherwise its not a clever effort (apart from the text) - the pilots are not on strike (this time) its the cabin crew.
But these posters never go up anywhere do they - they just rely in bloggers sticking them on their blogs.
tim, you have made two a priori blanket assertions that what kids eat for lunch is in some way vitally important for that afternoon’s education and that currently they’re not getting it. Please explain what they should be eating and why, what they are eating now, what damage that does, and explain how compulsory school meals would be the best and most cost-effective way of sorting it out.
better to have used him as king kong bringing down plans with his unite sponsored net or similar.
60: But will the meals be halal? And the five-a-day co-ordinator - is that for cigarettes or prayers?
I see soppy Cameron has waited another month before finally copying Lib Dem’s bank tax ..like he supported nationalising Northern Rock months after Cable said they should…what a drip he is
57. Umm… they did the “I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS” poster. Didn’t go down incredibly well though so I assume they believe it safer to go negative now.
At the end of the day, they have a lot of material to use…
49. Quite right. “Captain of the Nation” indeed - more like Captain of the Titanic!
Hardly Soviet, more English Boarding school.
I doubt Dave chauffeur dropped off sandwiches for him when the poor lad was sent away from home at seven.
70 - There’s plenty of research involving food, nutrition and child development, go and read some.
And start with the recent survey that found only 1% of packed lunches contained the nutritional levels required by cooked school dinners.
The mismatch photoshop adds to the comedy value of the situation. Such an obvious FU on the Unite/Labour pact that it would be funny if it wasn’t so desperate….
School Meals a year - 180
Total Meals a year - 1095
assuming 3 eating times a day.
It’s pretty delusional to imagine it has a big impact on overall diet.
The best argument for Free School Meals For All - would be to use Child Benefit to pay for it - and say that there is at least one area where there is genuine equality of treatment, and that the social stigma of being a “free school meals kid” is removed.
71, ooh, that’s a good idea, Mr. Voreas. CCHQ, take note.
I think some commenters here are missing the point of this. We have had weeks of the Brown ‘Stalin’ image with all the stuff about his bullying, the grim reaper tax and so forth. If it is used too much then it becomes tired and ineffective. People become immune to it.
Furthermore, the narrative of the strike doesn’t play up to this. This is not nasty, ruthless Gordon involved in resolving the strike. This is weak, subservient impotent Gordon. This is Mr Bean back to haunt us once more.
That picture (could it be airbrushed by any chance?) also reminds me of a pensive chimp who has done wrong (its the exposed teeth I think) and knows they have been found out and are waiting for the repercussions. Brown looks powerless to do anything just as he is powerless to do anything about the strike because he is a puppet of the Union that owns his party and to whom he probably owes his position. he has little sway over them but they have considerable sway over him….
Certainly this is a more sympathetic view of Brown than Stalin but do we really want Mr Bean back in charge?
Gawd knows what state we’d be in under the Tories…industrial relations at an all time low…wages driven down, huge number of EU migrants flooding in to fill minimum wage jobs, profits divvied out to directors and share holders making the rich richer and the poor poorer , civil unrest - that’ll get us out the recession… NOT
76..Tim..you miss the poin of free choice..that is whats important and thats why you are on the left you hate it,, smells of freedom.
the second point is that public school meals were notoriously bloody awful..
“And to be honest I don’t understand why “eating crap” affects that afternoon’s education ”
Additives etc., I worked in a school which installed a coke machine and some students’ were clearly affected, being less able to focus. My school’s science faculty just did a test on students to see how caffeine affected their speed of processing information and it was interesting to see how much it did.
On the other hand, drinking water to prevent dehydration has positive effects.
81. Don’t forget the leaky classrooms and packed lunches galore!
The Tories have missed the obvious poster gag.
Gordon Brown with photoshopped-on mohawk and gold chains.
“B.A. Brown. Now nobody’s getting on no plane”.
70 1/3rd of a pint of milk free - until Thatcher the Milk Snatcher stopped it , cottage pie , rice pudding with a dollop of jam in it . A typical school meal for me under the Conservatives in the late 50’s .
76 “There’s plenty of research involving food, nutrition and child development, go and read some.”
No, I expect you to be able to marshal an argument.
This is a typical lefty labour shill debating technique. A factoid is quoted, without justification, ex nihilo as it were. It is repeated a few times. And then later it is used to justify further arguments, as if it were accepted fact - despite the fact it has not actually been established to be true in the first place.
Please give a reference to that “recent survey”.
And don’t forget that a child’s nutritional needs are supplied by 21 meals a week, not just the 5 they eat at school. Not every meal needs to be nutritionally balanced. And the food police are quacks anyway - my parents’ generation (and mine) didn’t get the “balanced diet” we are supposed to - no whole grains, too much saturated fat and unrefined carbohydrate, nowhere near 5 fruit & veg a day - and were much healthier and less prone to obesity.
Could be bettered by having the door of No.10 in the nothing to declare queue….
Can see the usual Hitler chip on youtube appearing with the theme being we’ll fly the planes ourself message and Hattie getting turned down as she pranged her motor whilst on the phone being mentioned.
Terrible choice of photgraph.. it makes Gordon look about twenty years younger. It is probably about the most flattering pic I have seen of him.
A poster.. Gordo as the three wise monkeys sitting on a pile of UNITE money…no text..
Gordon looks human in the poster.
Will it actually make him so?
Only idiots need reply…
Children from economically deprived backgrounds already get free school meals. Schools are usually very good at giving parents guidelines for packed lunches, and ban chocolate and crisps (certainly at Primary School level). School meals often include a packed lunch option anyway, which is very similar to that provided by parents. You will also find a lot of children refuse to eat cooked school meals and insist on packed lunches.
If we do suddenly have all thise extra dosh to throw around, I can think of much better ways of using it.
74..I’d agree with you if it wasn’t for the fact that (if we believe the polls) the Tories won’t have a majority…it’s a failing tactic
Not great. The ‘Cash Gordon’ poster was much better.
86. Is that why your so bitter Mark? Because Harold Macmillan made you eat rubbish school meals?
81. “industrial relations at an all time low…wages driven down, huge number of EU migrants flooding in to fill minimum wage jobs, profits divvied out to directors and share holders making the rich richer and the poor poorer ,”
Lol - who’s been governing for the last thirteen years where all these items have been issues?
83 - I am astonished that some people on here really do put their own tawdry little political dogma over scientific conclusions, these are the sort who need to be exposed as nothing more than an ideology without connection to the real world.
The real problem with the poster is that it raises the obvious question, what would Cameron do in Brown’s situation? If the Tories want to win this election they need to tell the voters how they would handle critical problems like the BA strike.
83 Which to me is more a question of controlling the additives in food. Obviously a sugar high can be a problem - both the highs and lows - but can caffeine really reduce concentration? Would I be a better worker if I didn’t drink four mugs of coffee every morning?
Guys given theres almost a poster a day coming out of CCHQ I don’t think we’re supposed to take any of them that seriously. I suspect the Tories are having fun while the endless wait for Brown to see Her Maj continues. Presumably when the campaign proper is on the go, then we’ll get the really good stuff that CCHQ must have been sitting on for months if not years.
All the poster should be negative, negative, negative.
PPB’s need to give the positive side of the coin.
95 I really liked my school meals ( except macaroni cheese ) .
98 No itdoesnt..Cameron doesnt have to do a thing
#85 what gold…He sold it.
86 – My memory of school meals involved spam fritters and what may have been boiled cabbage – it was grey. As for free milk, most of the kids hated it, especially in the summer when it made the class room stink of puke. Hey Ho.
OT . EDL demo in Bolton today now described by Police as no longer peaceful with apparently 40+ arrests so far with riot police being deployed.
99 - You need to read up about how children are more greatly affected, it’s why they don’t get given adult quantities of drugs for example.
Why should people outside schools not be able to get a sugar high just because you want to neuter coke? It’s up to the schools to ban the machines and give a more controlled environment as regards food and drink.
Another thing my school has done is to drastically reduce the amount of salt used in cooking; that’s a long term thing though so it’s not just about getting through the afternoon.
101. The Conservatives did something to please you then?
I agree with “realist” at 24. If you changed the Unite logo for a skull & crossbones it would be a SchutzStaffel (SS) uniform
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/29/Bundesarchiv_Bild_146-2008-0276%2C_Hans_Heinrich_Lammers.jpg
Even has a dodgy left eye… oh dearie me….
100 There is no positive side of the coin where a potential Conservative government is concerned which is of course why their message is and has to be totally negative .
And he did, implying those wanting to work to be backed up.
97 But it is one thing to make a certain type of food compulsory, it is a different matter to ban anyone from eating or drinking anything on the verboten list. It would be pretty ineffective for a start. But maybe the Tories would be better off facing down vested interests and banning certain additives from foodstuffs (that is, if the EU allows us to).
And even if you accept certain scientific conclusions, it is a political decision how you deal with them. Even if you agree that global warming is happening, it would be rational to deal with it by accepting that some areas will become flooded, fewer people can be supported, and than in the UK we should plant vines and olives, and build houses with shutters and air conditioning.
The picture doesn’t do anything really, juat a bit of ridicule. It’s the message that hits home IMO.
96 John…what planet are you on ?
who introduced the minimum wage?….you can’t say one minute that Labour’s in the Union’s pockets and then say that insustrial relations are at an all time low…believe me if you leave such things to the employers wages will be driven so low that for many low paid jobs the only workers who could do it would be from eastern Europe
109. Hmmm….. What about those sunlit uplands waiting for us after all the pain and the cuts?
3 - Quality comment.
http://charlottegore.com/2010/03/20/gordon-browns-wedding-vows.html
98. What would any Government do but bring pressure to bare to get a negotiated settlement as quickly as possible and discuss with the parties whether they could assist in any way? How about that?
Of course Brown’s incestuous relationship with UNITE is so well known and so entangled that I doubt the BA can see him as anything but another agent for UNITE with a vested interest beyond the best interests of the nation. That’s the problem Brown and the Labour Government are so compromised that they cannot function as a normal Government would function.
Am I the only person on here convinced that the election will be June 3rd? Just about everyone seems to think May 6th is a foregone conclusion.
Is Gordon selling Rothmans cigs? (It’s very depressing to remember those ads on billboards………..)
Re 119 the = that
106 I don’t want to neuter coke, I think this is an area where schools should ban vending machines if they feel it is necessary (or maybe only stock sugar free soft drinks). On the question of chemical additives - if these affect children more than adults, this should be used as an argument for controlling them nationally. As has been pointed out, children eat a small minority of their meals at school, so trying to control the additives they eat through compulsory school dinners is likely to be ineffective.
Although I do wonder about the paranoid drinking of water, no-one walked round with a bottle of water when I was younger. Is it really necessary? I saw an article which said that you get enough fluid through normal drinking of drinking tea, coffee, soft drinks and beer and don’t actually need an extra several litres of water a day.
107, quelle surprise.
118, hehe, sounds about right.
119 jsfl what th Tories have done is the exact opposite…they have backed BA regardless of the merits of the dispute…I have heard no Tory spokesmen do anything other than to attck the strike
116 I suppose a few may consider it a positive that Cameron’s IHY cuts for his mates would mean that they could send their kids to school with a packed lunch of foie gras , caviar and wild salmon sandwiches .
So I wonder which side Dave would have fought on at the Battle of Naseby?
In a symbolic move, Mr Cameron delivered his speech at the church of St Mary the Virgin in Putney, south-west London – where in 1647 factions of the New Model Army and the Levellers held a series of discussions over a new constitution for England – known as the Putney Debates.
Citing historical precedents, he said: “It was only when people stood up to a despotic king that our rights first became enshrined in Magna Carta.
“And it was only when Parliament stood up to planters, merchants and ship owners that the slave trade was abolished.”
It was Tory premiers who secured cheap food for the cities by abolishing the Corn Laws and introduced factory reforms to protect workers from exploitation, he said.
Your know where you are with, ‘Radical Dave’ or not perhaps.
120, if Brown doesn’t go on 6 May now he’ll be wide open to accusations of bottling it again and clinging desperately to power.
120. Gord has got no eccuse to mode the local elections to June and Labour can’t afford two elections one month apart. Its going to be May 6th. The one week Eastern holiday pretty much confirms it.
Why would lazy MP’s have such a short break if not for the fact that Brown is going to call the election on April 6th and Parliament will need to be wound up?
Would have been better if he was dressed as a baggage handler. Carrying bags with Unite written on the side.
The Labour Manifesto will be one big ‘elephant trap’ for the tories because Labour know they will never implement any of these things. They didn’t do it before the recession so why would they do it now when we are over our heads in debt.
Unfortunately I think younger voters will be fooled and the rest of us ‘mature’ voters will not. Labour have created a culture of “what’s in it for me,me,me and me and there lies the problem for the tories in trying to cut through this selfishness and self-interest.
121 - Oh I don’t know Matthew - This one seems quite prophetic.
http://www.euro-cig.com/gal_images/20060405144245.gif
127 - I remember when studying it being impressed by Rainborowe, indeed I remember quoting him at length in a speech once.
129. eccuse = excuse. mode = move. Eastern = Easter.
111 - The key is that schools are in loco parentis, we have to do what a competent parent would do. In the case of food it means ensuring that they are getting a diet that will enable effective growth, short term concentration etc. There is a difference between children and adults, in any free society there are a thousand things that children are banned from doing and this is no different.
The worst way is to create a ban that affects everyone, banning a film totally because children might see it, for example. There is a controlled environment in a school and we should use that to impose the restrictions which they might not be getting elsewhere (allowed to watch/eat/do anything as they are the subject to poor parenting).
I disagree that this is political; only the most extreme libertarian would consider restrictions on children as being unacceptable. If we know, as we do, that caffeine helps to restrict bone growth in children, or that salt enhances the possibility of certain disease then we should not ignore that and be pro-active in dealing with it.
110. Yes. Against a white background the uniform looks black.
Notice tim has not made any attempt to justify his view about free school meals. In a couple of threads it will re-emerge as a bunkerbot theme, with the assumption that opposition to compulsory free school meals proves that Tories are in favour of beri-beri and rickets.
135. Good post.
So BA is another privatised concern to hit the buffers! Time to renationalise it perhaps?
131. Ran a poll recently on the most likely traps.
Most thought that it would be in the form of extra tax credits.
2nd up was unemployment. Some sort of pointless guarantee of a public sector make work job for 12 weeks or more unemployed at a guaranteed wage that sounds really credible. Something like pot-hole mending or house building. 15 billion allocated to the idea. Then, when Dave has to cancel it Labour can screech how they warned that the Tories love unemployment.
Budgie said: “Am I the only person on here convinced that the election will be June 3rd? Just about everyone seems to think May 6th is a foregone conclusion.”
No - I agree with you. I always suspected that it would be March 25th so he could avoid having the budget and the Q1 figures appear just before polling day, but failing that I have always thought that Brown lacked the spine to go before he has no choice - June 3rd.
I would prefer 6th May because it means a month less of the current a*seholes, but an extra month gives them time to try and squeeze in all sorts of scorched earth stuff before their 20 year exile to the opposition benches.
If it is going to be 6th May, we’ll know in a few weeks
129. Does he NEED an excuse? He can call the election at a time of his choosing as long as it is by June 3rd. Just because the MSM has taken May 6th as a given, it doesn’t mean to say that he is duty bound to go along with it.
It doesn’t take much to move the locals to June 3rd.
If he NEEDS an excuse, he has at least two. Firstly, he can re-use the excuse he gave for not calling an election last year. He said then that the priority was for the government to get on with dealing with the economic problems. He could easily say that the priority is for the government to deal with the current plague of strikes.
He also has the bill progressing through the Lords (second reading on budget day) which includes the AV referendum and reforms ro the HOL. The Tories are likely to try and prevent that becoming law. He could easily argue that it is worth hanging on for another month in order to give the electorate the referendum on voting reform as well as ensuring the HOL reforms get passed.
Bettors ignore the June option at their peril.
Nothing from John Rentoul on his blog about a ComRes poll this evening. Looks like another week is going to pass without the CR/IoS poll. Maybe they are keeping all their polling back until the election is called?
Looks like the only poll we’ll be getting tonight is the YouGov/Sunday Times tracker thats not a tracker, assuming theres no unscheduled polls, which this close to the election can’t be ruled out of course.
Would be nice to get another ICM poll in particular.
135 I accept some of that - although if you are acting in loco parentis, actually allowing parents to supply their offspring with a packed lunch of their choice would seem to trump that.
But, given that only about a quarter of a child’s meals will be eaten at school, I don’t see how you can effectively control additives by making school dinners compulsory. If kids are banned from junk food at school they will just demand more at home.
Are there not local elections in May - if Labour get hammered and maybe come third in the vote they will get slaughtered in June
re 142. I am aware of at least two polls tonight.
126 - that would be the IHT cut that affects everybody EXCEPT millionaires (unlike the way Liebour and the LiebDems have deliberately misrepresented it)?
141. Well the only time I can remember the local elections being moved was in 2001 when the local and general election was put back to June because of the foot and mouth disaster. So presumably its not something politicians can do on a whim?
145. Is one of them ICM Mike?
145 - That should be fun
not long ago someone pointed out that some of Browm/Blair’s shiney new schools had kitchens with no decent ovens, and that the kitchen staff were only able to reheat rather than cook food.
“Oi Gordon! Get you hat and sort this http://iwcp.co.uk/news/news/regional-fire-control-still-laying-empty-31892.aspx out will ya!”
147 - If he did it simply for his convenience then I would hope he got slaughtered in the election
147. It does not have to be passed in Parliament, it is simply a matter of getting the Queen to agree to it. I believe I read that they need six weeks notice to move local elections, although I cannot find the link at the moment.
There were several rumours yesterday about Gordon going to the Palce next Thursday. That is exactly six weeks before the May 6th Locals.. coincidence?
Reminder the PB users survey: This closes tomorrow night and if you have not filled it in yet it would be it would great if you could take part by clicking here.
143 - I think all schools allow that, but unfortunately some parents (thankfully not where I work) are not competent and the school should deal with that; when in the school’s care if a child is not being provided with adequate nutrition, clothing etc. then they can’t ust sit back and ignore the problem.
On compulsory school meals, I was just joining in the conversation, I haven’t at any time wanted to make school dinners compulsory!
This a good poster for doing what it is meant for - targeting the internet not poster sites.
It will also be picked up by some papers. Even those mocking it will show it, or comment on it which spreads the message. And for evidence see this thread banner.
It keeps the link alive. It is meant to look a quick job not part of a slick campaign. Stop looking at it through over sophisticated - or in the case of weathercock - over critical eyes.
Ask who and what it is for. Advertising needs to be crafted to hit all the market, not just the top end.
If anyone thinks this is amateur then think again. Brought to you by the same people who are responsible for this really sophisticated and clever site and poster.
http://cash-gordon.com/
120 budgie, I agree, it still seems likely to me that, left to himself, Mr Brown will simply procrastinate until parliament expires. Whether Labour can afford a 2nd election is unlikely to weigh with him - he was not concerned about the adverse impact on the party’s finances in 2007, why should it be any different now?
But Mr Brown may not be left to himself. IMHO, it depends whether his inner circle can provide the irrisistable force to prevail against Mr Brown’s immoveable object.
127 It is always difficult to pick sides in the Civil War, both sides seem equally unattractive from a modern perspective. Although I would probably plump for the King on grounds of religious liberty and preservation of the constitution.
However, in the first Civil War, there were a lot of people who were basically Royalists, but thought the king needed taking down a peg. So Cammo’s views might have put him on this side, or on the Royalist due to his toff background (although of course most Parliamentary leaders were fairly upper class).
But, if Cameron were to use St Mary’s Putney for a speech, this seems a bit of a waste. He should have used it to argue for radical constitutional reform, maybe using this http://www.constitution.org/eng/conpur074.htm as a basis. But I would say that, wouldn’t I?
133 Rainborrow was a solid chap.
141. If they had wanted to move the May 6th elections, they would have to have done it by now.
Can someone kick YouGov’s @rse. Still no sign of the details of the last two polls…
As he’s married to a descendeant of Charles II then I suspect that he may well have been on the Royalist side
re 160 Rod - they were put up there yesterday PM
http://www.yougov.co.uk/corporate/archives/press-archives-pol-intro.asp?submenuheader=1
159. If you have a link to the notice required to move the locals, then I would appreciate it. As I said, I remember reading that a minimum of six weeks is required and I am placing bets on that basis. So if you can give me a confirmation link, it would be appreciated.
What happens if Gordo doesnt go to see the Queen? Does Parliament just expire and an election happen?
On the Charlie Whelan Facebook campaign, once again it reinforces the message that the Tories are the party of the future (social networking and all that) while Labour are the party of the past (big unions propping up a failing government)
Commenting on the launch, Conservative Party Chairman Eric Pickles said:
“By making it easy for people to spread the word out to their non-political friends, this groundbreaking campaign is designed to bring a new wave of pressure on to Gordon Brown’s complete reliance on cash from Charlie Whelan and Unite.
“Facebook often gets forgotten about in Westminster. But with twelve million of us using it every day to connect to our friends and interests, we still see it as a key online battleground for peer-to-peer campaigning.
Once again the Conservatives push online show just how behind Labour is when it comes to leveraging online communities as part of wider campaigns.
Pickles added: “I’m proud that the Conservatives have consistently been leading the way in its use of the internet. In the last few weeks independent research has shown us way ahead in our use of email, and we’ve become the first party to launch apps on both the iPhone and the Blackberry.”
http://tory-politico.com/2010/03/tories-target-whelan-in-new-facebook-campaign/
And of course it reinforces the idea that The Tick of It is a documentary. Come the start of the campaign, friendly, fluffy Stuart is replaced by “The F*cker”…
155 Blimey, I think we might actually agree on most things. Yes I am a libertarian but accept that if you are a child or an employee you do what your parents or your employer tell you to. I had assumed you had come into the conversation on the Milliband/tim side. My apologies for misreading you.
We have come to a pretty pass where people rally seem to have no idea how to feed themselves or their children. “Broken Britain” seems entirely appropriate.
164 - I believe so.
162. Thank you Mike. Can you ensure that the page where they are supposed to appear is a link on your sidebar. Google does not seem to know of that page…
165 Scott…I guess its a comfort to know that those Ashcroft millions haven’t been wasted then
49. Philippe - I’m not sure if you caught it but I’m willing to take your offered odds on Romney at 4/1 and Palin at 8/1 getting the nomination. Let me know.
164 I don’t think anyone knows as it hasn’t been allowed to happen before. If Parliament expires, the Triennial Act requires that a new one is summoned within 3 years, which I think means that an election would have to be held within 153 weeks. In practice, I assume the writs for a new election would be moved immediately, but it’s a prerogative thing so controlled by the PM.
163. If it is 6 weeks, then I am wrong, but I thought it had to be done by February and that they need to move a bill to do it. No link I am afraid, just hearsay!
Last Saturday Charlie Wheelan started Twittering about the reduced Tory lead with ICM from about 12.30pm
Well we’ve had nothing so far.
173. Perhaps he has other things on his mind today!
Good posters are:-
quickly and clearly convey the party they are from
1) simple and use a few simple easily understood words,
2) capture a strong mood,
3) are immediately obvious,
4) put the party doing the Ad in a good light
5) put the party there aimed at in a bad light
6) are part of a coherent, consistent message
7) link the image to the message
9) relate to a main policy area key to voters
Think of the famous “Labour isn’t working” Ad and other classic ones from the past.
So far the posters have not done this.
173/174, Speaking of which,
http://www.torybear.com/2010/03/guy-news.html
173. Or has finally and at last been told to keep his head down for a while.
173/174, Speaking of which, Guy News on Whelan and McBride
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTwyqO86QR8&
re80
You will never get elected then, far too sensible a policy.
174 - Or maybe there is more bad news for Labour.
…. they did the “I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS” poster. Didn’t go down incredibly well though
by numbertwelve March 20th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
Except everyone talks about it including lefties. So was it a failure? Did the message get across? Did those attacking it help spread the message or hinder it?
Do a little experiment. Write down the message of the original poster, then write down the message of the best spoof that had a negative impact ( rather than most amusing).
re83
That is what has been happenning under Labour idiot!
I wonder how long it is until Charlie’s Twitter account is closed.
Earn 5 points for tweeting him…
Always knew Brown was in the SS.
poster proves it
158 - And you, Lieut Colonel, are a pearle in a dunghill.
lucymanning
Van with tory poster at heathrow … attacked and poster ripped
Well, the Tories must be in real trouble.
Negative adds about a strike the vast majority of the public think the government should keep out of,
and a Bank Tax that will have Tories fighting a Boris Versus Cameron battle in all the London marginals.
Disaster! Who is running this shambolic campaign? They have p*ss*d away a 15% lead!
It is going to be the dirtiest most negative election campaign ever. For the simple reason that the UK is up the proverbial without a paddle! There is one almighty mess to be sorted out whoever wins the election!
You can bet your shirt on your back that the Labour hacks are going to play dirty it is hard wired into thier gentic code! Cameron cant afford to be nice, the UK cant afford nice at the moment. Smell the coffee people!
MG March 20th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
A good summary but those guidelines are more suitable to high cost long life advertising. Posters on billboards for example, rather than the ephemera of the internet.
185 Of course, the Rozzers might have a rough time strike breaking those Stewardesses - and there is no point calling in the army as they have bullet-proof foundation trowelled on.
I believe the perfume however might contravene international law on chemical warfare.
MG left out an important phrase in my post:
MG March 20th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
A good summary but some of those guidelines are more suitable to high cost long life advertising. Posters on billboards for example, rather than the ephemera of the internet.
My typing is getting worse than my proofreading on a daily basis.
187 .. IainM….BenM…”Smell the coffee”….scary..
What do the Conservatives think the public is, stupid. Mr and Mrs Voter make their own minds up based on a variety of factors, certainly not silly posters that many find overbearing. You really wonder about the political parties, their notions of commonsense, presentation and views of the public.
These sort of things will rebound whoever is putting them up.
O/T
A very belated big thank you to PtP for successfully tipping Menorah at 11/1 in Tuesday’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.
david (s) March 20th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
But I thought you said you were a Conservative supporter in a union. Now you talk of the Conservatives in the third person. I am confused ….. I know, not for the first time.
192 – david(s) you are of course complete correct – so why get so excited over a piece of fluff like this ?
192 not at all - they will tut at the poster and then down the pub when the Strike comes up they will take a swig of beer and declare that ‘that Brown idiot’ is doing ’sweet BA’ about it.
Overt reinforcement of a negative viewpoint.
If Labour get arsey about it on an interview ‘well, how much do you receive from Unite?’
Inverse Ashcroft hysteria, but this time from the side of the Angels.
Just thinking about the timetable for a May 6th election and it really is quite fascinating when you look at the Easter recess. Normally Parliament rises for two weeks at Easter and yet this year it rises on Tuesday 30th and returns on 6th April. Dissolution for May 6th has to occur by 12th April.
To my mind it would seem silly to send MPs back to their constituencies for Easter drag them back for 4 days or so and then send them away again. So a pre-Easter election announcement combined with the two days of sitting in Holy Week might give an indication that the govt plans to have the budget as the last act in this phoney war drama. They then have Thursday through Tuesday to pass those things that aren’t contentious and everyone goes away for Easter and doesn’t come back.
184 My compliments to you, good sir.
(So at least there’s one poster who realises John Lilburne isn’t my real name. I am sure there are a few who don’t get it - which for a political website is a bit of an indictment of modern education etc etc. One of the Nits (MalcolmG or James Kelly) likes to call me “John” for example, as if it is my real name. Although in their favour, my namesake wasn’t big in Scottish politics.)
John Lilburne was a bit of a menace to us Royalists.
But that was so long ago in a galaxy far, far away, that we can now enjoy him for the man he was: a freeborn Englishman of the most distinguished sort.
194 I’m generally a Conservative voter, and even supporter, but would refer to “them” rather than “us”. It’s a question of voting for them because they reflect my views slightly better than the other parties, rather than out of tribal loyalty.
GET RID OF GRAYLING NOW!
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/03/calamity-grayling-opposes-camerons-unilateral-bank-tax/
69 -
On topic - usual quality of a Tory poster! Actually their best poster was in the 1997 GE - the one with ‘Don’t let Labour wreck it’ - that has proven more accurate than anything else over these past 13 years.
Usual nonsense from Gideon on the bank tax, who advises this man! He’s just shown that he really doesn’t has a clue - god help us all! I’m going to vote Tory through gritted teeth but be the most miserable of all of the 10/11 million voters they’re going to get!
201 - thank goodness Grayling shows a bit of sense. Could see an almighty bust up within weeks of them taking power over this - and it will be well and truly deserved. I hope plenty of other Tory MP’s have a conscience that Grayling obviously has. Only somebody from outer space could possibly think that a bank tax is a good idea when they are capital constrained beyond belief!
202 Hey Hunchman, calling Osborne Gideon sort of gives the game away..not too clever..
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE Polling and Seat index.
Con 39% .. Lab 31% .. LibDem 19.5% .. Others 10.5%
The PISSED Jack W Seat Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 336 seats .. Lab 222 .. LibDem 56 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 22. David Cameron is Prime Minister.
…………………………………………….
Jack W Tip of the Day - Conservatives to retain Eastbourne. 8/11 with Ladbrokes
Election Night Single Malt Tasting Notes - Number Four :
The first result flashes on the screen. “…the returning Officer for Sunderland South ….” and you reach for one of the finest Islay single malts - Lagavulin 16 year old- this multi award winning tipple will leave you demanding more !! It sure packs a wallop - deep dry and pungent. Full of multi peaty flavours, salty seaweed and a touch of wood. A true long finish with a final hint of spice. A true great !! …. but not inexpensive !!
………………………………………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
John Lilburne should have been a royalist with that lordly sounding name.
197 I for one intend to be very neat a TV screen next Thursday,the 25th-in anticipation of Gordon Brown visiting Buck House -wonder if he will announce the election outside no.10? (I felt most piqued when Blair announced the election date whilst on a visit to a South London school- as I’m a traditionalist,that jarred a bit for me)
John Lilburne even Roundheads have to let a man speak for himself sometime?
And I am sure you know that would be a Lilburne sentiment, too.
194 If I was a Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or Jacks Arse party supporter I should still be able to say hey thats daft.
You could refer to Confused. com!
I was on strike myself last year.
It is very worrying that Union people are seemingly so scared that they hide their faces etc. I think that says reams about the management in this case.
Interestingly Charles Kennedfy on Question Time spoke about the comments from cabin staff on his weekly flights and their concerns about aggressive, macho management. Any of us who have been or are managers know that provoking trouble aleays comes back to haunt you. I fear for Willie Walsh once this is over, mind you he won’t mind huge pay off, life of luxury and not doubt another job with Quantas or somebody.
One other thought. This strike does not affect me. How many people does it actually affect, most people round here simply shrugg their shoulders over it and seem to be saying both sides are responsible and I am not flying anywhere at the moment. This is a relatively comfortable middle class neighbourhood, me I am poor and desperate, the exception to the rule!!!
I reckon everything has got out of proportion due to the media.
Perhaps we should ban the media and its news for a week, give us all a break.
204 - I’ve always called him Gideon!
I’m not about to change now, such is the loathing I have for his misguided belief in nonsensical classical monetarist economics, along with Cable, Brown and Darling. You’d think some of our MP’s would have an idea of how our economy really works, but not one of them does so - quite unbelievable.
205: I still prefer Champaign Jack.
Greens not to gain a seat? Any offers.
203 But something is wrong. Banks are still making monopoly profits, which their staff then pay to themselves. Plus the taxpayer has rescued them when any normal business in normal times would have gone bust and/or taken over by a rival. Something needs to be done to ensure (a) the taxpayer gets a proper return (b) inject proper competition into the business (c) ensure ineffective and inefficient banks can be allowed to fail without putting the whole financial system at risk.
There you go, an anti-bank rant from an economic-liberal point of view. (I was going to say “from a capitalist point of view” but the owners of bank capital seem to be reasonably happy with the situation)
210..Agreed.
Mr Smithson is obviously worried that the Lib Dems are going to be ground into the dust!
Agree with Mike - damn silly poster.
It’s also a bit of a daft line of attack because if Labour are doing little to end the strike it just makes them appear more like the Conservatives who adopted the ‘laissez faire’ approach to strike intervention.
Pretty stupid CCHQ tactic therefore, and a sign of desperation if you ask me. They’ve been aimlessly rootling (think chickens scratching) for some time and this really isn’t a brilliant line of attack.
The Conservatives really are not where they need to be. This doesn’t mean they won’t still pull it off, but they really really should be 42%+ at least at this juncture.
211 weathercock. “Champaign” ?? - is that a DelBoy production using Peckham grapes and aged in the Nags head cellar ??
To me it is a good idea, it is not there to win Labour voters, but to remind swing voters who controls Labour.
Here are some numbers on swing voters
1979
Labour ——–11,532,218 36.9
Conservative— 13,697923 43.9
Liberal ——–4,313,804 13.8
1983
Labour ———8,456,934 27.6
Conservative— 13,012,316 42.4
Liberal/SDP—- 7,780,949 25.4
1987
Labour ——–10,029,807 30.8
Conservative— 13,760,583 42.3
Liberal/SDP—- 7,341,633 22.6
The highest Lib numbers since the war was in 1983, when they went with the two Davids as Lib/Dems.
Note the drop in the Labour vote once the Lib/dems came into one party.Over 3,000,000 switched, and at 1992 1,000,000 returned to Labour.
The Lib/Dem vote has been,
1992 5,999,384
1997 5,231,519
2001 4,812,833
2005 5,857,298
Very steady, but it looks like from the polls that 1,000,000 moved over from Labour to Lib/Dem from 2001, to 2005, if we agree it was because of the Iraq war, and these will be more from the left wing of Labour, I would expect most of these will return to Labour.
This could be why the Lib/Dem % in the polls are below 20%, and Labour been showing just over 30%, but there are still about 1,000,000 more swing voters to return to the Tory party.
The increase in the polls seem to be 1992 voters that have returned.
212. In which banking service is there a monopoly?
208 Good point, I suppose I wasn’t trying so much to defend david(s) as to argue a point that annoys me sometimes - people on this site, who are overwhelming (unsurprisingly) politically partisan, seem to expect everyone else to be. I generally lend my vote to someone when it is an election, but I don’t believe any political party deserves any greater support than that. I may generally vote Tory (although in local elections I sometimes vote Lib Dem and also did so in the 1997 GE) but I am not a Tory. A distinction some people seem not to understand.
206 I think Rainborrow is a fine name, boringly it seems to be a variant spelling of Rainsborough.
110. Talking of which, thanks to all pb-ers for the suit buying advice. I got my whistle from Selfridges this morning. Rather pricey but very nifty, and best of all… it’s by Hugo Boss, who also designed the uniforms for the SS.
So I get to look extremely sharp, and subtly annoy histrionic lefties, every time I wear it. Perfect.
201. Weathercock:
I think it is more Calamity Left Foot Forward (or dishonest Left Foot Forward) as it seems to me Grayling is criticising the Tobin Tax model seemingly favoured by Brown and the EU not the model that Osborne and Cameron seem to favour which is reportedly similar to the Obama model. Peston explains far better than I about the differences:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2010/03/cameron_tories_would_tax_the_b.html
This about the original Obama announcement:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/15/us/15tax.html
Whichever the banks are going to be taxed
217 When businesses are in monopolistic trading conditions (not necessarily a pure monopoly) this is often shown in internal inefficiencies, often feather-bedding and overpayment of staff. BA is showing this, it still appears to have staffing practices from when it had a virtual monopoly. If there were competitive trading conditions in banking, with competitors being able to enter the market easily (as now happens with airlines) then bank staff wouldn’t be able to sit on so much money, they would be fighting for every last cent of business and profit and wouldn’t be able to afford to pay themselves so much - because they would have to charge too much and would go out of business.
That’s my thesis anyway. I’m not saying any one bank has a monopoly per se.
86.I have theory, Thatcher’s children were born out of all those kids who were made to drink warm milk at break time. Yuck! I haven’t been able to drink a glass of milk since (shudders).
I must say the anti-conservative forces seem a bit squealy and sensitive today. Clearly this union business is unnerving them. Perhaps they realise how bad it is for Labour after all.
On the poster it reminds me of those old airline (BA?) adverts. Now who is going to take seriously someone saying ‘I’m Gordon - Fly Me?’
What a scary thought…….
220 Although worryingly he is quoted as saying “It’s a principle that no-one could oppose” which is cobblers.
Both Any Questions and Any Answers v. v. bad for Gordon - and for Ed Balls.
209. The strike is emotive because it’s BA. For whatever reason, it’s one of those ‘national treasure’ companies that people take a big interest in no matter how much they use them. Remember there is still a feeling that BA is the ‘national airline’ and the ‘flag carrier’ despite now being a private company. People therefore have a kind of warm, fuzzy, patriotic feeling about it.
Plenty of carpet chewing from the Tories yet again. I am convinced there is a Tory equivalent to this organisation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Patients_Collective
Perhaps they post here as therapy?
221. I think you are a little too wedded to Adam Smith’s models. One of the assumptions they make is that perfect knowledge exists, and another is that new businesses can replicate other businesses’ performance if they just try to do the same thing. Both are incorrect. In banking, certain banks stand out to make very large profits because they often do a better job for their clients than their competitors, and can justify higher fees. Are certain staff overpaid? Sure. Every employer has difficulty correctly assessing who is doing a good job and who isn’t. Are staff in general overpaid? Depends on how you think of it. In terms of their net contribution to society, probably. In terms of the laws of supply and demand, maybe not. A lot of these people on very big salaries ARE enormously talented, often in ways that are beyond the comprehension of those criticising them. There are certainly barriers to entry in some of these services (particularly on the sell side), but I wouldn’t say any more of an oligopoly exists than in, for example, supermarkets, much less a monopoly.
226 Also, people can understand what it’s like to be affected. Many people still have one big holiday a year and can understand what it would be like if it was messed up or cancelled or you were faced with a bill of thousands of pounds to rebook with an alternative airline. Seeing pictures of people stranded at airports will bring it home to them. Whereas I imagine a rail strike, or a strike at Jobcentres, will have much less impact as most people never use those services.
201. The question referred to the Robin Hood tax on financial transactions, NOT the Bank levy that Cameron mentioned today.
226. Do you think that’s still true?
Garbage airline, and has been for years. I had an appalling experience with them back in the 1990’s and knew they were total shite then.
Bit like the BBC really. And BT.
224. The key point here is Left Foot Forward conveniently ensure we don’t hear the actual question and also seem to paraphrase Graylings response in their text leading us to a particular conclusion.
Having listened to what he said I am a little unclear what principle he is referring to (again we know not what the question was).
If, for example, the principle in question is that the Banks pay back the taxpayer for the bailout via some sort of levy or tax then I think it would be an extremely brave person who would argue against it.
Left foot forward are just being disingenuous and medacious IMO….
Going by his tw@ttering Charlie is rather frazzled by the Mail on Sunday’s investigation.
It couldn’t happen to a nastier chap.
Takes his mind of the polls, though.
227 But I would guess that an employee in a supermarket that is making the same amount of profit as a certain bank, is likely to earn much less. Even if, say, a supermarket area manager can make as much money for the supermarket as a trader at the bank. It might be that to be a successful banker you need specific intellectual attributes that are in short supply - but I am not sure that is particularly true. So I can’t help thinking that there must be market conditions that allow banks to make excess profits, and then for the staff to cream some of them off before the shareholder can get his hands on them. But as I don’t actually know anything about banking, I will leave it there as pure supposition.
228. Agreed, John, apart from the rail strike. I think that would also be very toxic. It would depend on the dates, of course (weekends would mean less disruption) but from my experience people do rely on the trains a lot more now to both go to work and to get to airports - ie anywhere where car parking is expensive/in short supply. A strike could lead to a ridiculous amount of road traffic chaos.
Les the Brown ‘Robin Hood tax’ is a plan to get back part of what the banks owe the taxpayer and give the rest to ‘developing countries’ who have fallen foul of the credit crunch.
Thus making the development budget do the opposite of its name and ensure that this country is not as rich as it should be it really help develop poorer countries for a sustainable period.
Self defeating ignorant money wasting. When will they learn that throwing money at poor countries will not make them rich any more than throwing money at the NHS will not make it efficient. It is what you do with it not the volume.
Back to the past with ignore the quality feel the width.
232
“They don’t like it up em” Capt Mannering…
Hi SeanT, if you’re around…
What are the best airlines for SE Asia? I have decided I am going to carry over some leave so I can go somewhere warm later in the year, I will probably book a tour but will be responsible for my own flights. (I will probably tag on a week in Thailand on my own at the end though). And - what’s the best time of year for weather?
TIA
215. Blue Nun or a bubbly Bollinger for me Jack. Whiskeys and Brandies somehow don’t agree with me. But give an Apfel or a Pflaume Schnapps and I’m your man.
220. Thanks for the info this jsfl, and if an apology is due, well and good. But Grayling is still a berk in my estimation.
236. MTF who’s this Mannering geezer? It’s Mainwaring!
230. I do, yes. I think we as a nation love to moan about institutions like BA, but I think secretly, deep down, a lot of people do genuinely take an interest in its performance. It’s a very high-profile, internationally-focussed British company.
Incidentally, the last time I flew BA was back in 2008. I thought the service was good, but not markedly better than that of Virgin, who I have been very impressed with. Virgin tend to be a bit cheaper as well, so I’m fairly sure they’ll have my future long-haul business. Problem is, that goes against everything the strikers are saying about BA, arguing that its cost-cutting measures undermine the high standard of service the airline is supposed to provide in contrast with its competitors. It’s only personal anecdotes that I can provide, but in my (and others) experiences that’s not actually the truth.
226. People may have warm feelings for BA but they choose Easyjet or Ryan Air more and more often.
I know it’s not the same but they outrage at the proposed closure of Six Music was out of all proportion to the audience size, and I think this is indicative of the poor understanding the public have of the position our economy is in.
Whoever wins the next general election will have to cut things people actually use not just have warm feelings for, the public are going to be furious. Half the public want spending to rise, 80% think cuts can be avoided by efficiency savings. None of the major parties are offering what the public apparently want.
“To my mind the cap and the uniform and the UNITE logo appear pretty smart and really make Brown look quite good.
The idea of Brown as “captain of the nation” as it tackles difficult conditions is one, surely, that Labour HQ won’t be concerned about.”
Mike, we really must have been looking at a different picture, I looked at what is obviously a deliberately badly photoshopped Brown in uniform and thought of those Carry On films.
Smithson, what have you been drinking/smoking?
238. WC I’m not Graylings greatest fan. I dont think he makes a good Home Sec and indeed hes made a couple of howlers. However, I do think he has had bit of a rough ride recently over Labour’s dodgy crime poll (the State’s answer to Yougov?) and now on this…
I notice R5 will be taking an interesting “impartial” temperature to Darling budget…Dick Bacon will be getting live reaction from North Tyneside (Labour only got 62% of the vote there last time, down from the usual 70+%)….why not a marginal (especially a 3 way marginal), rather than a super safe Labour seats one may ask…
This piece of trivial nonsense brings the Tories to NuLabour levels of awfulness.
I’m not sure weather the party is falling to NuLabour levels of inconsequence or rising to them!
Whichever, it’s yet another a piece of evidence that strengthens my theory that British politics is broken beyond repair. If you don’t believe me take another look at the poster.
I long for the days of Caledonian Airways!
re228
Considering the present level of the Brit Peso a foreign holiday is out of the question this year and for the forseeable future! Yet taking a UK stay at home sort of holiday is a permanent hassle because we now have Unions once again holding the majority of the UK to ransom!
It is not just the question of a holiday it is also the question of having face to face in the person contact with my customers! I can assure you that a rail strike will have as much if not more impact on my business and the jobs of my employees as much as an air strike! BA has an unhealthy share of the market despite the growth of budget airlines! Nor am I forgetting the losses my business has to absorb when there are postal strikes!
233. I think the difference between banking and other industries in this area, is that in banking, most employees know exactly how much money their firm is attributable to them. If you’re a regional manager and your sales have gone up 20%, there can be a debate about whether it was your personal performance, wealthy people moving into the area, a good christmas bounce this year, a particularly successful advertising campaign that happened to connect to shoppers in your area, etc… Meanwhile, if you’re an investment banker that drove through a deal, or a trader that made a particularly high profit on his account, or a fund manager that outperformed the market, its pretty difficult for supervisors to argue it wasn’t down to you. Plus the employee often knows precisely how much profit the firm made out of it, which regional managers might not know.
There’s also the case of work load. By no means all jobs in finance are like this, but investment bankers often work 18-20 hour days. If there are highly talented individuals that could be moderately wealthy working 9-6 in other jobs, you need to pay them a lot to put up with that sort of crap.
237. There’s a wide choice.
If money is your only concern, go with the cheapos like Etihad or Jet or Emirates: but of course you have to stop over in Dubai or Mumbai or whatever (avoid this if you can!)
The cheapest direct flights are Thai. Good schedules (night flights) but their planes are a bit old (some don’t have back-of-the-seat TV).
Eva Air is good. Reliable. Fairly cheap. Goodish schedules. Their premium economy is quite good value if you want Business Class type space for just £200 more.
BA do the nicest flights (yes); best food, best planes, best schedules, more flexibility. But they are the priciest.
230. I’ve actually only travelled once on BA and once was enough; it was bloody awful.
I now travel by Emirates or Lufthansa. Did go once by El-Al but that was like being locked down by constant security, which becomes a boor after a time.
249. Surely the best service comes from all the East Asian airlines? I find BA a bit like the BBC. They assume they’re the best but you have to question whether the actual output is particularly special.
222 ChristinaD
How on earth do you take your stovies? Without oatcakes and a glass of cold milk? Heathen!
250. I am a travel writer and I fly all the time. BA are quality. But you pay for it.
If you want to experience a genuinely shyte flag carrier, try Iberia or Alitalia. Just dreadful.
BA are up there with Singapore as being amongst the best.
245 North Tyneside Borough has a Tory Mayor and the Conservatives have 31 out of 60 seats on the council. There are some quite bourgeois parts of the borough around N Shields, Tynemouth and Whitley Bay. The N Tyneside constituency is much smaller and consists of the western end of the borough around Benton and Wallsend - which is much more solid Labour territory (in fact it includes Battle Hill which I thought was in Newcastle itself).
216 why would lib dem return to labour over the iraq war. I think they will mostly stay lib dem chilcott and the fact it is the same party that went to war. People have long memories ( thats why the tory vote is not higher) people will start forgiving labour about iraq next election some may never forgive them.
Why not replace Chris Grayling with a large tree trunk - similar usefulness but without the negatives.
I flew BA this year and never again - the service provided when we were delayed due to the weather was much worse than that Easyjet provided in the same situation. Charging more for rudeness and inferior service is never going to be a winning business model, strikes or not
PoliticsHome - UKIP will deny the Conservatives a majority, says Pearson
“Lord Pearson declared that the UK Independence Party “absolutely” wanted to deny the Conservative party a majority in order to force an in-or-out referendum on Britain’s EU membership.
Asked if he wanted to see a hung parliament, he replied: “Yes, absolutely.”
He said he “worried about a Conservative majority as he [Mr Cameron] has ruled out a referendum” and five more years of European integration would be damaging to Britain.
“I think our strategy must be to try and contribute to a hung parliament.”
“Our aim is to prevent other parties winning seats, particularly the Conservative party.”
A hung parliament would make a further election a “certainty within another two years”, in which “UKIP would be able to ensure no party will be able to go into the election without promising an in-or-out referendum.”
Challenged by David Heathcoat-Amory that this strategy would benefit European integration by damaging the prospects of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs, such as himself, the UKIP leader denied that would happen: “it is not a destructive strategy, it is a creative strategy.”
He added that he had told Mr Cameron: “give us a binding referendum and UKIP will get behind you”, but he had not received a response.”
Seems Old Charlie is getting increasingly sh##ty about Rant on Sunday, wonder what they have got on him?
256 ..Same could be said for you Tim..
249 Thanks Sean, although of course a stopover could be a bonus if it can be extended to a couple of days. I quite enjoyed Mumbai last time I was there, there are some very good restaurants if you can pay London prices (and as a foreigner of course you can).
254 In fact the council election results in 2008 were Con 44, Lab 37, LibDem 16, so fairly representative I’d have said (and the first preferences in the 2009 mayoral election were similar, 42-34-13).
256. Because that would be yet another member of the Shadow Cabinet with more charm than George Osborne.
258 ChristinaD - Eccentric logic there from Loard Pearson! How exactly would a hung parliament lead to an EU referendum?
256 tim - Note Jack W’s tip of the day. (No, not tipple of the day)
256. Why not replace the whole of the Labour Party with a single concrete breeze block? Not only would it be more useful it would have far more substance as well…?
261. Mumbai would be fun. Not so sure about Qatar.
I guess the SNP psring conference is on…
journodave
Pretty certain Salmond’s opening monologue has been written by a Higher Modern Studies student on work experience
guidofawkes
Apparently @CharlieWhelan gets sent an average of two dog turds a week. What I want to know is: who is sending the other one
Pearson is a plank. If there were a hung parliament how would he get his in\out referendum? From the House with a Labour and LibDem and NATS majority?
Does he really think the LibDems would go on that referendum when they dibbed out of one on Lisbon and concocted a need for an in\out referendum instead.
Not a chance. They would give way to their new colleagues in Labour and refuse to play ….. again.
258 That strategy would be a good one if UKIP was likely to get seats and to therefore be part of a coalition if the Tories were the largest party in a hung parliament. But they’re not. All that would happen is they would take seats from the Tories, leaving them possibly governing as a minority with the tacit approval of Europhiles like the Lib Dems and SNP. Or a formal coalition with Europhiles. In a second election I think voters would be more likely to go for one big party or another and all the small ones would be squeezed.
262.AndrewG ..Some of the most successful business people in the world are totally. without charm but they know how to run great businesses.How does being charming make you a good chancellor..duh..
267 -
- and if the Doggy tax had not been dropped I think the number of ‘parcels’ would have been larger.
I think the picture has a real comic value, in that it makes Our Glorious Leader look utterly hapless.
259.Oracle, the whole area will be crawling with politcal journo’s this weekend. The SNP are holding their Conference in Aviemore which is just a few miles away.
272
He sort of looks like Blakey from On the Buses……
270. I agree entirely. I think George Osborne is going to be an excellent chancellor. But I’m still not particularly fond of him.
johnrentoul
Alex Salmond speaking at a lectern bearing slogan: “Scotland needs champions.” In which sport?
journodave
Scotland needs more champions, especially fourth sector pathfinders.
272.Carry On back to the 70’s.
272. But no doubt Sarah will be looking at it thinking:
My Hewo
The UAF’s organiser and 31 other supporters have been arrested, with three EDL members.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8577777.stm
Any news outlet got any idea what the turnout for the strikes has been like ? Good or Bad ?
They should have put Brown in a stewardesses outfit.
275.Isn’t being unpopular usually a better sign of being a good Chancellor, its also more of a sign of strength and courage, but instead we got Gordon. Just think, if the economic myth that was Gordon Brown hadn’t sought to try and make himself so popular as a politician, we might not have been in such a weak economic position going into this recession?
253
I just returned from San Francisco with BA, excellent service,food and was able to sleep most of the journey.
I would imagine that their plan is to gradually move to a first / business class / premium economy only service as they have started with their New York business class service from London City airport and let the Ryannair’s,Easyjet,Virgin et al fight over the cheap / low margin part of the market.
I don’t wish harp on about this, but i think there may be a few surprises on May 7th.
I don’t think this GE is a forgone conclusion. I’ve always taken the view that those so-called marginal seats are marginal for a reason, namely that they are unpredictable. Obviously the core vote seats will go according to plan, but a lot of those marginals, especially in the Midlands, will swing in all sorts of directions.
I also expect the BNP and UKIP to do surprisingly well. The old taboo about voting BNP has now gone (almost), and the ‘wasted vote’ attitude which previously held back UKIP, is now largely null and void because of the very real absolute contempt politicians from the big 2 are held in.
I can’t wait, it’s going to be one of the most fascinating elections ever.
280
“They should have put Brown in a stewardesses outfit.”
He only does those on weekends
281. Didn’t Gordon spend 10 years at the Treasury alienating more or less everyone he came across, except his own cabal of supporters? There’s something to be said for a bit of Ken Clarke style affability.
261 There seems to be some confusion here between North Tyneside council and the 2 parliamentary seats of North Tyneside and Tynemouth . North Tyneside parliamentary seat is very safe Labour and also voted Labour with a comfortable lead in 2008 . Tynemouth parliamentary seat voted Conservative comfortably in 2008 and should therefore be a straight forward Conservative gain however it also did so in 2004 and yet Labour won in 2005 by over 5,000 .
280. TGOHF
This seems to be the latest from the BBC site
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8577573.stm
Footage of the vandalised van
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/ba+cabin+crew+strike+starts/3585257
274 In which case,we could star Jacqui Smith as ‘Olive’ from ‘On The Buses’;some 40-something London MP with a strong London accent could be Stan Butler..oh,and dear Betty Noothroyd could play Stan and Olive’s mum !
P.S I do adore 1970s comedies-my worst vice is loving the feature-length spin-offs derived from ’70s comedies- I can truthfully put hand and heart and claim I know the script of ‘Holiday On The Buses ‘ off by heart as I have watched it so many times!
283. I don’t wish harp on about this
Then don’t (unless of course you really do want to harp on about it?)..
250 and 257 yep I can identify with those comments.
I was caught up in a coup d’etat in an African state during the 1990’s and had to leave under gunfire with emergency evacuation procedures. We were flown in to CDG Paris which all went remarkably well considering the circumstances … but that was when the problems began. BA were staggeringly, and I mean staggeringly, rude and incompetent. I could not believe just how crap they were. Despite dodging bullets in Africa in pretty hair-raising circumstances, I can honestly say that the BA staff in Paris, followed by the flight, was by far the worst part of the whole experience. They were shambolic, rude, downright incompetent and (and this really grated) arrogant with it - as if they really did believe they were the world’s favourite airline. What a load of bs. My father used to fly all over the world and warned me that there are much better airlines out there.
I did complain to BA and they offered me and my team a full written apology with extensive compensation vouchers. I returned them. Even going free I wouldn’t go with BA ever again.
The comparison with the BBC works. Another organisation an awful long way up its own arse. When people start believing their own hype it’s usually a recipe for disaster. Cameron would do well to heed this if and when he becomes PM.
256. Tim,
common ground-Grayling is totally useless!
However please stop going on about it, you’ve made your point, and it’s valid!
285.”Didn’t Gordon spend 10 years at the Treasury alienating more or less everyone he came across, except his own cabal of supporters?”
I would have added ‘in government’ at the end of that sentence. The government, Labour party and our economy was built around one man and his personal ambition to succeed Tony Blair. He tried to creat a short term legacy at the Treasury that would propel him into No10 without any real opposition, and it worked. But in the longer term, his legacy as Chancellor is going to be very different because it ended screwing our economy before we even hit this recession.
A good Chancellor is much better than a popular one, they tend to put the UK economic rating first, and their personal ratings second. Brown is notoriously thin skinned, and he hated being seen anyway near a negative headline.
Confirmation - ‘Left Foot Forward’ has become ‘Lie Foot Forward’…..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5855043/no-place-for-mischief-in-digital-politics.thtml
Labour Lies,
Labour Spins,
Labour Twists In The Wind….
294 - Will Straw of Left-foot-forward has attributed Chris Grayling comments to the transactions tax (as proposed by Gordon Brown) onto Cameron’s proposal of a tax on banks’ balance sheets.
There is no conflict between the two, just another blatant piece of dissembling from Will Straw, for a bit of fun, just read the comments on his thread were the dishonesty is exposed.
Is this the same Will Straw, the drug dealer?
36 The problem is hardly anyone wants to eat the muck.
297 (cont) And paid for by Charlie Whelan / Unite?
Sky ticker says BA reinstating some long haul flights, 50% of cabin staff in work.
Yes, the comparison with Blakey from On the Buses is spot on… http://bit.ly/dzahYJ
re253
I will politely disagree with you Sean. Based purely on my own long haul experience of BA, not a patch on Singapore Or Cathy Pacific Airlines both of whom were a pleasure to fly with.
He looks like the dick he is.
The rumours on Tw@tter surrounding Stupak are driving me nervous; I’m a bit edgy now, for I have lots of money rolling on ObamaCare passing tomorrow….
Tax has doubled under Labour
Despite long-forgotten promises not to raise income tax, the Government’s share of what we earn has nearly doubled in value since Labour came to power, according to HM Revenue & Customs’ statistics.
These show that HMRC took £69bn out of salaries and pay packets in 1997, but expects to raise £134bn in 2010. National Insurance contributions (NICs) – a tax on income by another name – took less than £47bn out of pay 13 years ago, but will exceed £98bn in 2010, according to calculations by accountants Grant Thornton. Other taxes – such as stamp duty, council tax and capital gains tax (CGT) – have risen by even more.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/how-budget-affect-me/7485899/Budget-2010-Tax-has-doubled-under-Labour.html
Cathay Pacific rocks…
286 I’m not confused, the original poster seemed to assume that N Tyneside constituency was representative of the whole area.
But it begs the question of why constituencies have such confusing names. North Tyneside constituency would obviously be better called Wallsend & Benton, or just Wallsend, or North Tyneside East. Where I live, Aldershot constituency would be better called Aldershot & Farnborough, and North East Hants is not the most north-easterly Hants constituency. Maybe we should go to the American system and have Hampshire District 3.
Seems Old Charlie is getting increasingly sh##ty about Rant on Sunday, wonder what they have got on him?
by Oracle March 20th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
I expect they found out he is a Gooner fan after saying all these years he was a Yid.
Is it just me or would you not know there’s a strike on if you just watched BBC News 24 today? Seems blanket coverage of the Pope and Catholic paedophile priests.
309. Perfect day for the BBC: they can bash the Catholic Church and keep the strike out of the news at the same time.
re 307. I started my journalistic career in North Tyneside as a district reporter for the Newcastle Journal and Evening Chronicle in North Shields. Then the Tynemouth MP was Dame Irene Ward - one of the few women Tories and a character who was larger than life.
What puzzles me as an opponent is just how erratic Tory economic policy is. First the gyration over cuts (when and how much), now suddenly out off nowhere a bank tax, to be applied even if the banks’ competitors don’t have one.
MPs are getting lots of letters and emails calling for a Robin Hood Tax - a tax on financial transactions to fund good works. I’ve been replying that I like the idea but it would need to be almost universal (at least applied in the main rival financial markets), so the G20 is the place for us to raise it. I’d feel like a Socialist Worker in particularly populist mood if I started demanding a tax on British banks in isolation (a tax on optional bonuses is probably another matter, and I even hesitated about that). What is Cameron on?
“MPs are getting lots of letters and emails calling for a Robin Hood Tax ”
Yes, it’s spontaneous and not at all related to a coordinated campaign involving an ignorant Richard Curtis film.
311..He is probably on his way to Number 10
304 We should not forget to account for the RPI-as I recall £100 in 1997 would require £140-145 today in 2010 for the same purchasing parity
313. “He is probably on his way to Number 10″
As in…the tenth Tory general election defeat since the Second World War? I wonder what the odds are on Cameron doing a Kinnock and finishing his career without ever having been even a junior minister?
NPMP – The introduction of any new Taxation at the GE will be as a direct result of your party’s devastation of the British economy.
Have you got any comment to make about Jack Straw’s son, Will Straw, and his latest blatantly partisan and dishonest article..?
315 If your geezer would call a GE we could all find out.
313 ..and within 12 months public sector strikes on a Greece-scale that make the BA/rail disputes look like a tiny storm in a teacup..
318 Unfortunately I am afraid that might be the case no matter who gets in.
318 Unfortunately I am afraid that might be the case no matter who gets in.
MikeSmithsonPB
Why no Tweets on tonight’s polls? Last week we got news of ICM before 12.30
johnrentoul
@MikeSmithsonPB Because @charliewhelan is a bit tied up at the moment
315 As I recall,Neil Kinnock was briefly a Parliamentary Private Secretary from 1974-6 to then Employment Secretary Michael Foot- after the 1976 leadership election Kinnock returned ,of his own free will,to the backbenches
317. “If your geezer would call a GE we could all find out.”
Alex Salmond has many powers as First Minister, but alas, calling a UK general election is not one of them.
311.NickP, reading that post, I wonder if you think you have wondered onto Labourlist instead of PB.com.
322 Tis a pity he did’nt make it all the way back to Wales.
322. But a PPS wouldn’t count as ministerial office, would it?
321.
Indeed, it sounds like Charlie Whelan has hooked a MoS journalist instead of a fish on the River Spey today. 
319/320 And I,for one,do not relish taht for one moment-I have heard teachers in the school I work in talling in blood-curdling terms as to their reaction to a Cameron victory- I suggested thir language was ‘Stalinist’ in only wanting to work for one side (theirs)- they went silent at that
311 Well, I think it’s more like a compulsory insurance premium to pay for the fact that bank profits come largely risk-free due to the fact that the taxpayer will bail them out if they f4ck up. And indeed have just done so.
Just because people have been prompted to write to you it doesn’t make a stupid idea sensible. Taxing transactions, apart from whether it would be workable, would seem to introduce all sorts of distortions in markets, plus an incentive to get round them. And all though you intend the money to go to “good works” it would just be wasted by DfID and the NGO fat cats or spent on claret, Mercedes and guns by third world despots.
And if Tory policy has been “erratic” it’s because apart from Gordon, Alastair and Ed, no-one knows exactly how f4cked up the economy is. Gas Osborne been invited to Darling’s pre-budget discussions so he knows what’s in the books? Thought not.
I am sure the Tories will give us their economic policy when the campaign opens, in fact I understand we are likely to get it in the budget response.
And I have noticed how lefties like to agree things internationally. It’s a bit like giving benefits to middle class people: it is difficult to take them away. Well, once you have agreed something stupid with 20 other countries, it then becomes difficult to get out of it if you change your mind (or government). Have you not noticed that a lot of people think the EU has too much control over our lives? We want less international cooperation, not more. That’s the whole point of being a country. You do your own thing.
Just caught up with Alex Salmond’s speech today in Aviemore. A remarkable juggling act.
295
‘Will Straw of Left-foot-forward’
Does Daddy pay for the blog to give Willie something to do?
323..Intersting..In my rude way I would normall tell you to push off then but as I am probably the only English Tory you are likely to meet who wants full Scottish Independence I wont.
OT, a number of posters have mentioned Peter the Punter’s excellent tip on Menorah at Cheltenham this week. Not mentioned so far (that I have seen) is stjohn’s equally impressive tip on Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup, and Aaron’s suggestion of an E/W lucky 15, which with 2 winners returned 13/1
Much Respect
News reaches Yokel central that the Tory feelers to the DUP have become branches.
Disappointment with the UUP is high but whilst the Tories had already talked to the DUP over how they’d swing (no Iris jokes) in a tight parliamentary arithmetic, various channels have been firming up the detente.
This does not mean there is some hard and fast agreement or alliance. Its likely that the DUP would have supported a Tory government anyway, at least tactically, but it does indicate Tory fears that the UUP may not do at all well and an insurance policy.
It also may look to free up some kind of DUP/UUP pact on a couple of seats. This however is anathema to many in Tory high command who feel the long term downside of that isn’t worth a potential short term upside in the seat numbers of possible allies. Not least there is no guarantee that the agreed candidates would go under the Tory whip anyway.
Before anyone on the Labour side goes hysterical, it isn’t as if you weren’t talking to the DUP about tactical support. It was as if you weren’t trying to coax Sylvia Hermon in either.
325 Rather unkind,old chap-after all Sir Geoffrey Howe and Michael Heseltine came from Wales,and were considerable figures in the ‘79-’97 govt- I would observe Neil Kinnock was leader in the wrong era-his idol,Nye Bevan was a 1950s fogure,and I realised thinking to myself the other day,that Kinnock was too retro for the materilaistic 1980s- his language harked to a more noble,decent past (before my birth in 1971)
I finish by saying if the fur really flies in the election campaign-would any Tory on here really feel proud of the venom,bile thrown at Kinnock by the right-wing press,especially during the ‘92 campaign..there is the saying ‘What goes around comes around’
Mike
“captain of the nation”
This may have been already pointed out but the rank shown on the poster is not captain but co-pilot. Captains ware 4 rings.
It actually then shows he’s not in control and is actually controlled by someone else (as we know he actually is). Maybe the poster is too subtle for some but the headline still hammers the point home in case they still don’t get it.
Meanwhile the public suffer and a rail strike now looms.
ware= wear Doh
Mike,
Dame Irene Ward. I remember when she lost her Wallsend seat in 1945 and subsequently returned to the H of C representing Tynemouth from 1950. A wonderful character who liked the odd g and t.I met her several times when I worked at North Shields in the early 1950s. Happy memories of the North East.
335.Not picking on the Welsh, I love em. Its just Kinnock..Some people you take to and some you dont.. Remember his Sheffield speech..
336 As only 54% voted for strike action,and we have tll next Thursday,it is to be hoped a negotiated settlement can will be reached- maybe next Thursday turns out to be the day Brown goes to the Palace and lo and behold,a settlement is reached :winK:
296
Is it the same Will Straw that was sacked as a school governor?
Caught selling drugs and then made governor of a primary school, the crazy world of New Labour.
331 – “Does Daddy pay for the blog to give Willie something to do?”
That is most unfair, Will is an independent young man with political aspirations of his own - he would not dream of being ‘kept’ by daddy.
UNITE fund the blog instead.
307 John S
Itemised bill for his Union issue credit card?
339 Yep,the infamous 10 seconds that made the difference between ‘largest in hung parliament’ and outright defeat-I could check the stats -33 more Labour seats ,by under 2000 votes,and Labour would have be largest in HP…
235 Witan
“It is what you do with it not the volume.”
Obviously you are being overpaid for whatever work you do. We need a contractor to work on our apartment block for 4 quid a week, paid from my own pocket. I know you’ll take the job in an instant.
That kind of salary will not bother you, because “It is what you do with it not the volume.”
344. I think that’s just retrospective mythology, Patrick!
344 And if you watch youtube,as soon as hee yelled ‘Well alright?’ the third time,Kinnock says ‘We’d better do some talking,some serious talking’-he probably knew he’d dropped the blooper of his life!
309.Why the level of coverage of the Catholic Church in Ireland? I’m sure what happened was dreadful, but it’s not as though the Pope has apologised to Britain.
247. Voters emailing for tax rises on banks, you can do better than that, Dr Nick.
For some reason it reminds me of the Not The 9 O Clock News sketch about people wanting to pay more for the BBC Licence Fee.
246 I thought most mythology was retrospective
342.Simon, UNITE fund the blog, don’t they fund Labourlist as well?
I wonder how much funding they provide for the Labour blogsphere as a whole. IIRC, even the thought of Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft funding a news or politics site in the blogsphere causes the left to have a fit of vapours and resign enmasse. And yet, UNITE can fund Labour sites and the current Labour party whilst in government to the tune of millions because there is absolutely no way that this UNION could influence Brown, government policy, or even individual Labour MP’s.
The irony is, Lord Aschroft’s financial contributions to the Conservatives while they were in opposition is much more akin to one of the smaller former Unions years ago. Now we have this super Union with tentacles targeting and spreading into every part of our political landscape, and all under the watchful eye of their biggest beneficiaries in politics.
351. “I thought most mythology was retrospective”
If only. There have been plenty enough myths peddled about the forthcoming general election!
353..Heh..Heh..very true…are there any Irishmen on pb..
Good try, Scotland!
349 I think you’ll find that the Catholic Church in Ireland includes Northern Ireland, which last time I looked was part of the UK. Plus, large numbers of Irish people live in the UK. And in any case the Catholic church is a multinational corporation, and who knows what they were up to over here?
Having said that, I do think coverage of this one particular branch of the Nazarene cult tends to be a bit over the top, when JP2 died, it was as if the Reformation hadn’t happened.
352 - Christina, you are correct, Labourlist is funded by UNITE, as revealed by Guido last month, (see linky)
In fact it is quit staggering that the MSM is only now catching up with Guido’s revelations that he has provided over the past year concerning the incestuous nature of UNITE and the Labour party.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/11/labourlist-funding-revealed/
304. Can you detail those? When I was across there no one actually believed they’d not get it through in some shape or form.
335 - I’m not sure that a new bit of gerrymandering, as a ‘pact’ would likely be seen by the Nationalist communities affected, would be beneficial to NI as a whole. Totally sensible for short-term tactics, but as a strategy for a successful Northern Ireland, possibly less so.
Anyway, how are they divvying? South Belfast for the DUP and F&ST for UUP or vice-versa?
356.So, you are agreeing with me?
re 353 351. “I thought most mythology was retrospective”
If only. There have been plenty enough myths peddled about the forthcoming general election!..
Trouble is that we’ll only know what they are after the results have come in
318/319
Patrick/Richard
I find the heavy-handed Tories posting on this site have their eyes on the election horizon only. Its what happens after that counts. Brown’s honeymoon lasted weeks, even a super-star like Obama’s just a few months.
These idiot Tories need to read the polls that count - to whit, those that show how the British will react to the massive cuts in services that they are predicting. I well remember the Winter of Discontent; and that will be nothing compared with the backlash that the Cameron government will feel.
This is just like the 2008 US Presidential election; it is the one you need to loose. Here we have a NuLabour government that is corrupt and rudderless and a Tory opposition with the least experience coming into office and a backbench group of MPs of which more than half will be first-timers.
Rabbits and headlights, dear boys, rabbits and headlights.
I just popped out for a while and lo and behold who should sneak on here but the £1 Million Man.
Re 313. So has Nick Palmer morphed into Will Straw or vice versa? Either way I think it is dreadfully poor show (although par for the course) that a Labour MP doesn’t seem to understand the difference between the Obama/ Conservative Bank Levy and the Brown / EU tobin tax.
Is this what we have paid £1 million in taxpayer funded expenses for over recent years? An MP who doesn’t know his arse from his elbow (he didn’t understand the implications of the abolition of the 10p Tax rate either).
Tsk Tsk Tsk
PS I bet he knows how much money UNITE gave him though…..
295
‘Children’s Secretary Ed Balls had to approve the decision to replace the governors with an interim executive board. Councillor Paul McGlone, Lambeth’s cabinet member for education, said: “Officers found that the standard of education was falling year on year. The governors didn’t respond appropriately and we exercised our legal right to replace them.”
Quite incredible really when a New Labour patsy like Will Straw gets sacked by Ed Balls.
362. I think the Tories are braced for deep and severe unpopularity in the first couple of years of their term. The hope is that by 2014/2015 things will be turning round and people will be feeling better ala 1983. If not, then at least Brown will have been turfed out and that alone will have done the country a big favour seeing as he’s probably the worst Prime Minister in at least fifty years if not longer.
362..Malcolm I tend to agree and have said to colleagues that the tories do not need to win this one..I genuinely fear for the next five years. But battle is about to be joined and the Tory party must go for a win, bugger the consequences..They will deal with them, they have done before
I think I must be one of a very small number who think that the present BA dispute has nothing to do with the government in particluar and politicicans in general. People in Westminster should keep their noses out of it, not least because then there will be a better chance of it being settled and settled more quickly.
The Conservative Party poster is in my view a mistake as it will add fuel to the fire and that will do nothing for the people involved. As with most industrial disputes, I feel sorry for the people who are on strike. They, not the union barons, not the chaps on very large salaries, are the ones that lose out in the short and long term.
Mind you, to go on strike takes a very special mentality that I cannot understand. In the case of the current BA dispute the strikers will lose few days pay, plus a perk worth tens of thousands of pounds over a career and increase the chance of their job disappearing. The Union Barons that are organising the strike stand to lose nothing - they won’t lose pay or perks or their job. Even the management have something to lose - if BA goes under they won’t have a job either and nor will thousands of other BA workers.
Strikes are madness, they belong to a different age and have no place in the current world.
365
‘as he’s probably the worst Prime Minister in at least fifty years if not longer.’
Close call between Brown & Blair.
guidofawkes
Did you know @charliewhelan also put up the cash for Prezza’s @GoFourth and @LabourList ? #cashgordon
guidofawkes
Blocked by @charliewhelan - he doesn’t want to listen. Just like Brown. #cashgordon
369 - Draper vs Guido on DP, the funniest bit was the who funds you…Derek really made his wife look like she should be a regular on EggHeads!
369 - Charlie seems like a petulant bugger doesn’t he.
MPs are getting lots of letters and emails calling for a Robin Hood Tax - a tax on financial transactions to fund good works.
by Nick Palmer MP March 20th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
Sounds like the whole lot is destined for the Salvation Army.
But we know it is just another excuse to waste more millions on failed ‘development projects’ which no-one supervises and where millions go missing. Where Africa stays poor, or rather gets poorer as it has over the last four decades despite trillions of dollars of aid.
Makes you feel warm inside, though, I suppose - all righteous spending taxpayers money like confetti.
Unfortunately it leaves the people needing the aid no better of, at best, and often worse off. It is the bureaucrats, politicians, the ‘consultants’ and the corrupt who are best off. And the TUC of course which gets a bung from DfiD.
Tell me what happened after Gordon saved Africa with debt cancellation and education for all. Things got any better?
By the time Ed Balls gets his chance to be Prime Minister, he’s going to be an old old man.
You blew it Ed, you had your chance and you’ve blown it.
You too David Miliband.
Adios muchachos.
what the odds are on Cameron doing a Kinnock and finishing his career without ever having been even a junior minister?
by James Kelly March 20th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
But Gordon said he plotted the fall of the pound and told Lamont - the Chancellor - what to do. He was in charge of the economy.
Have you forgotten that?
The close-up photo of Charlotte Vere is not very flattering:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/audioslideshow/2010/mar/19/conservatives-candidates-election
374. “Have you forgotten that?”
I’d need to have heard it in the first place to forget it.
guidofawkes
Any more @charliewhelan gags? RT @MartinPeet: Gordon. In the event of an Election: the Exits are here, here and here #cashgordon
365/366
Gin/Richard
Yes. All well and good; but the starting position this time is much lower than it has been for any government since the second world war.
We currently enjoy a parliament full of individuals that are hated by the general public. A parliament of troughers. A government that is corrupt. A governing party in hock to a single trade union. An opposition in hock to a single billionaire. Other parties than Tory and NuLabour are posting at record levels. Greater numbers of people are saying that they will not vote this time.
And that is the starting position for a new government who are threatening to make savage cuts in the services used by Mr and Mrs Joe Public. The next government’s position is hopeless from the start.
Some months ago I tried to get some debate going on the blog about policies and was told by Mike Smithson, for my trouble, that I should write to the party HQs. Its not the name of the party that wins that is important, its what they will do.
Hence the need for looking over the election day horizon and considering actions rather than the personalities that will carry them out.
Our country currently has three Tory parties, the one in power and the two major opposition parties. Effectively a horse blanket could be thrown over the lot of them.
And that is how many Britons see the situation - a plague on all their houses.
369 It seems UNITE is like a computer virus….its tentacles extend a long way..
376..Then you will never make a politician, for which you may be eternally thankful..
359. Correct, but its hard going for any pact to be concluded and its running close to the wire to whether they can get one. My own view is that its not going to happen mainly because factions on both sides, DUP & UUP, dont like it.
A majority of Unionist voters are broadly supportive though.
Iraq, Shock and Awe. Year 8. Day 1.
lucymanning
We brought you samcam. Now hear nick cleggs wife talk about how she dislikes being called a political wife itv news at 1815
Tories posting on this site have their eyes on the election horizon only. Its what happens after that counts.
by Malcolm March 20th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
So elections and winning them are a mere side issue.
This is a democracy - well of sorts - and the blessing of the electorate is needed to wield power as a government.
Perhaps not in you rather distopian world, but here, the other side of the pond, it still in a requirement.
OT..Completely..watching the Rugby here in Italy and the female presenter is unbelievably beautiful, cant understand a word she says but who cares…Good game tho..Ireland -Scotland.
380. “Then you will never make a politician, for which you may be eternally thankful..”
I’m back to needing a translator, I fear.
Looks like one of the strippers in the Full Monty
374 - To be fair to Kinnock (hard, I know) he did end up as a European Commissioner which is a far more powerful position than even most cabinet ministers.
Latest KF…
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Tories continue to slide.
Labour wobble.
LibDems up.
Narrow Labour seat lead…
Gawd my typing is getting bad.
378.Weird isn’t it how 3 different parties are proposing cuts, just for the sake of it, even though that would hurt joe public, why do you think that is?
393.Since you have posted so often about your belief that the tories won’t get a majority. Given that you have Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament, if it turns out that the tories did get a majority will you give up this prediction lark?
392..And what a success he was at that, sacked an accountant who pointed out massive discrepancies in the budget…all that Labour training I suppose..
385 - You’re almost certainly right. I’d also throw in the idea that if there was a DUP/UUP pact, Jim Allister’s gang would perhaps look to throw a spanner in the works? Or would he not risk the wrath of the community if he kept the nationalists in the targeted seats with such games?
393 - Just what was needed hours before the next fantasy YouGov, a Rod Crosby graph.
397 - Not arguing he was a success. He was part of en enormously corrupt commission that was forced to resign en masse. But to suggest his career peaked below junior minister level is factually inaccurate.
388. UPDATE…
The Tories are now probably polling lower than they have done at any time since Sep 2007…
Could that (much mocked) 35% score that I predicted arrive tonight?
Brown to the Palace next week?
By Jove, Labour can really win this, can’t they?
#393, by RodCrosby March 20th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
Latest KF…
But your analysis excludes polls you don’t like. Normally I would not raise this point but if you look at the first letter in this weeks The Economist it explains why you should (else you analysis is as valid as Lehman’s accounts and as reliable as The Challenger’s O-rings).
If you cannot access the letter I will render it for your opinions.
376. Africa has got poorer over the last four decades? Evidence please.
399..With all due respect, I nhink a junior minister in the uk government is superior in many ways to an EU commisioner, Take Mandy for example, how many times was he fired from the labour heirarchy
401 - Yes. It is the latest KF minus all the polls Rod doesn’t like.
401. No it only excludes polls that can’t reasonably be included.
Remember Mike’s “you can’t average the polls” guff?
Well, he was half-right…
Is there a sinister Labour plot to stop British troops voting in the election?
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1259368/Is-sinister-Labour-plot-stop-British-troops-voting-election.html#ixzz0ik3oW28A
Cutting through the usual Daily Rant stuff, there is an interesting stuff in there with regards to service personnel voting.
@400:
Shut up, Rodney.
guidofawkes
Union-funded blog LeftFootFwd screws up, gets backlash in comments, closes comments. If I closed comments when criticised they’d never open.
Straw digging himself a big hole. What is it with these leftie bloggers and their love of digging……..
More by Dale with Straw defending himself in the comments(pretty weakly too).
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/will-straws-evidence-based-blogging.html
400″ By Jove, Labour can really win this, can’t they?”
No.
407. Who’s he?
Roderick is such a better name, don’t you agree?
400.I’ll take the fact you ignored my question at 396 as an indication that you have no confidence in your own methods. If you had the level of confidence in your methods that you pretend, you would have not hesitated.
410 “Roderick is such a better name, don’t you agree?”
For you, Dickhead is even better.
400 - For a guy who says he has never voted Labour you really do seem amazingly excited about a Labour win, Rod.
407 MC - Just forget Crosby. Let him go and play with himself in his fantasy world. He’s really not worth it….
393. Rod, even putting AR to one side, has it not occurred to you that your model is massively dominated by YouGov polls - YouGov must account for at least 50% of the data in your model.
I don’t agree with everything the UK Election Trend website has done but I think that site made a very valid point that no one pollster should skew the model - hence they only include YouGov once a week.
Anthony Wells also addresses the problem in the calculation of his average giving much reduced weightings to the 2nd and subsequent polls from any one pollster.
Turning the the Labour “wobble” on your graph isn’t it blindingly obvious that the only reason for the Labour increase on the last day is because that day is a YouGov only day?
Do you really think Labour actually dropped 1% two days ago and then recovered that 1% immediately the next day?
guidofawkes
My blog policy is to close my comments if you all laugh at me says @wdjstraw over calamity blog piece on @leftfootfwd
Is Straw to become the new Draper?
377.”In the event of an Election: the Exits are here, here and here”
413. I love a good story with a twist in the tale…
371 Hurst Llama
Strikes do seem to be mostly a public sector thing now.
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/2010/03/old-new-same-old-labour.html
Labour nominates TV Totty for Ashfield:
iaindale
RT @tom_watson: Gloria DePiero gets labour nomination in Ashfield. >> God, that’s a real surprise!
415
If Rod let everyone see his workings, I doubt he would be as cocky as he currently is.
“Do you really think Labour actually dropped 1% two days ago and then recovered that 1% immediately the next day?”
It’s too early to say that that actually happened. Ask me again in about a week’s time..
421. MTF - His ‘workings’ probably resemble a Gordon Brown budget. About as accurate in its projection as well no doubt……
420.If only Nick Robinson was Nicola Robinson, would then have ex BBC & GMTV political correspondants spinning for Labour from inside the chamber rather than as now, outside.
RC, I have posted the corresponding correspondence at your site. Particular attention should be made the the following quote:
[Src.: a href="http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15716919">The Economist Letters]
Whilst I enjoy most of your contributions here, I feel that John Early’s - a former United States assistant commissioner of labour statistics - argument underlies why most punters choose to mock you. You should add ARS to your analysis.
But it’s your call and your reputation. Let’s hope you have more luck gaining the respect of the punters than Nick Palmer has so far attained.
@414:
I just like calling him Rodney.
Rodney the Racist.
421.I offered him a simple challenge if he’s wrong that, not only will the tories be the largest party, but that they will win a majority would he then stop inflicting his predictions on us…he declined to comment. The silence speaks volumes.
422. Rod, why not answer the question? Is it sensible for one pollster to account for over 50% of the data in the model?
Ignore H*l*c**st deniers.
426 - Why not an Only Fools and Horses meme, Rodney the Plonker, or Rodney the Dipstick.
The Silence of Crosby
The Silence of the Six Million murdered Jews
Further to 428, with YouGov dominating the model so much it is almost ceasing to be a model at all. It is becoming just a plot of YouGov results with minor adjustments added on here and there.
277 “I think the picture has a real comic value, in that it makes Our Glorious Leader look utterly hapless.”
Come now gadfly, he doesnt just LOOK that way, he is utterly hapless
Hopeless works as well of course
A yellow three-wheeled van on his drive would be a dead giveaway
426: “I just like calling him Rodney.
Rodney the Racist.”
Dickhead the H Denier
Comletely off track and thread,, what do pb’rs think of a united Ireland .with an Irish government.run from ireland, completely independent from any other nation
316.”What puzzles me as an opponent is just how erratic Tory economic policy is. First the gyration over cuts (when and how much), now suddenly out off nowhere a bank tax, to be applied even if the banks’ competitors don’t have one.”
Coffee House Blog - Pot, kettle, black
“George Boateng, Alan Milburn and Andrew Smith have written a letter to George Osborne, calling him to task over the contradictions in his policy.
‘It is not clear to us whether these mixed messages are a deliberate attempt to obscure your plans or a symptom of a confused approach to policy but either way the public deserves better.’”
“But talk about hypocrisy: take a look at Labour’s economic policy in the run-up to the budget. They are certainly clear on cuts: there aren’t going to be any. But the rest is nebulous and confused.”
Since 9 March (end date) there have been 13 polls - 8 YouGov, 2 AR, 2 ICM and one Opinium.
So with AR excluded, 8 of the last 11 polls are YouGov.
So it is now no longer a model at all.
I find it deeply depressing that a political party that purports to be a government in waiting should think that such a pathetic poster should affect any views at all…
436. And a Harris…
437. Yes, sorry, Harris is not yet on the UKPR listing.
So just 8 out of 12 are YouGov.
And still no answer to the question!
436. Well go and see your Doctor and he’ll probably prescribe some tablets for your depression……
Gordon looks good in this gear, big Tory error!
Couple of Guido Tweets…
Hear Sunday Times has been aggressively ringing Tory donors asking what is in it for them? Murdoch is getting broadcasting deregulation.
More MP sleaze stories coming on Monday, Dispatches is doing MP/Lobbyists for hire. Oh hello Mr Yeo…?
328 - “Alex Salmond has many powers as First Minister, but alas, calling a UK general election is not one of them.”
wow, reading your posts I formed the impression yuo were a Labour fan.
Rod, it’s embarrassing.
It’s like a University Maths professor not being able to add up.
435. There’s at least another 6 weeks to the election. More polls will appear to either confirm or refute YouGov, and balance out what the industry as a whole is saying.
In any event, the polls are already converging…
440 You like a man in uniform do you?
I’m prepared to forgive Dan Parks his ridiculous sideburns! No wooden spoon for Scotland!
Yay Scotland. Deserved victory. Good game.
425. Fluffy Thoughts
If I were in the game of building poll tracking utilities (which I’m not) then I’d be very inclined to use the financial system of moving averages over different periods. It would give a familiar and easily understood way of understanding the dynamics.
As regards Kalman filters, I have had dealings with them in a professional capacity, and they really ain’t easy. I trust that RC has over a decade of doing not much else to avoid embarrassment.
SCOTLAND !!!!
Wee Eck can go [MODERATED}
400.
Rodney
you are a plonked!
Your model is BROKE before it even started!
Good bloggers are self-financing or add something new to the blogosphere.
Lefty bloggers seem to all be on union payroll. No wonder they are all crappy.
Will Straw is, I am sure, an intelligent man. Why does he not go and do something outside of the Westminster village for a while and come back when he’s not such an obvious daddy coat-tailer.
I find people who go straight from Student Union to Union politics to Westminster so very strange.
GET A BLOODY JOB
Hurrah! Surprisingly, my Six Nations tip [think I tipped them, certainly raised this] of Italy to get the Wooden Spoon paid off. Huzah!
452 - Don;t they always get the wooden spoon?
Having just read the post, I disagree with Mike’s conclusion. Despite the uniform, Brown looks every inch the plonker he is.
453, no. They can be tough to play, especially at home. If Scotland hadn’t just beaten Ireland, away from home, Scotland would’ve finished bottom.
Anyway, the point is that I was right, which makes a nice change
453..One day..One day they wont…but they do enjoy the game..and are worshipped in iTALY
451 Whiffs of ‘Get on yer bike’ a la Norman Tebbit-whose chipping at Cameron nowadays is appreciated by yours truly
456, a couple of season ago they beat Scotland and Wales.
Doesn’t at least one of the Sunday polls usually show up around 7pm? ICM perhaps?
451 - “I find people who go straight from Student Union to Union politics to Westminster so very strange.” Yes…best if they have, say, a marketing job in between before attempting to become PM? That said, Will isn’t in Westminster, he’s just editing a blog. I can’t see why anyone should be discouraged from doing that?
457.Patrick..I do fear for you after the election..have you made any arrangements for your recovery..
Why have the Tories got 36% three times this week? Iv’e been out of the country and this came as a shock.
457 - LOL. Nice.
Tebbit is a very decent man who just happens to be a bit of a fossil.
462 - COZ THEY’RE CRAP
463, as a slayer of dragons Lord Tebbit is clearly a true Englishman, emulating St. George
“Why have the Tories got 36% three times this week?”
Because they are losing the election…
Sky News - ’some good news in the polls for Gordon Brown’ - no figues yet or what poll etc
467. Here we go then.
Game on!
ICM - 38/32/19 NOTW, Con Home carrying
460 Nick PALMER MP..the Million pound man..do you realis Nick That a couple ogf years ago that would have brought in about two million US dollars, now its only worth about one point five six milluion US dollars..what a bugger..all free..
Tebbit isn’t a dinosaur…listening to the current shadow cabinet trying to break the Unions he sounds pretty mainstream…
460. Yes, how much better if you could enjoy a spell as, say, a Khmer Rouge-supporting communist, in between school and your political career.
469, if accurate, that’s a bad poll for the Tories.
469 figs confirmed on Sky ticker
473-Still 40/30/20 MOE narrative
469. Nasty poll for the Tories. They must hope the UNITE bashing does the trick.
We are surely headed for a Hung Parl; just don’t know who will have most seats.
474, the change (9 to a 6pt lead) seems rather inexplicable. It may be noise, or further narrowing. Need more polls to find out.
460. Yes, it is much better to get a marketing job. Having to actually work to client needs or not getting the income. All politicians should work in the private sector, at least for a year or so. How else can you understand most people?
475 I’d say 38/31/20 is about the mark at the moment.
Tories short by 20ish, Tory = slightly larger than Lab plus Lib Dem?
NOTW poll was wed and thursday (pre BA strike confirmation and Rail). Also, fully withi margin of moving error percentage.
475.
Tories are losing the election…replace the word “David” for “William” and “Cameron” for “Haigh”
477. Lower unemployment. General sense of it’s-not-as-bad-as-it-could-be.
Interesting ICM poll, not sure the movements are explicable.
It’s only one point down from last-weeks ICM poll. Don’t read too much into it….
477 Tories down 2 and Lab up 1 - but iot’s pretty much identical to the ICM before which was 7 points.
Tory 40 was a high outlier for recent polling - 38 is about right although YouGov is ticking lower
Poor poll, but hardly a panic poll unless the others also contract
last-week => last Sundays
broken tory scabs on the slide.
@477:
Would appear to be noise. Assuming we’re in a holding pattern around 39:31:20, which corresponds to a comfortable 40-60 seat Tory maj.
475 - is that AR MOE?
Agree with Morris Dancer @ 7.06. I have yet to meet anyone with a good word to say about either Brown or Labour.
483, you may be right, Mr. Thomas. I wonder if a fantasy Budget (that the media should obliterate), possible return to recession and rising petrol prices will alter that.
How on earth can damp Dave and his cronies possibly run a Country when they can’t even run a half-decent election campaign after the deepest recession since the thirties
Remind me what was Gordo proper jobs before politics? After spending 10 years doing a completely pointless PhD, all he could manage was teaching politics at the local technical college (now one of the worst ranked universities in the UK)….what was that about genius again?
YouGov
38/31/19
Not a good poll for the Conservatives but then again it could be seen as MOE. It does follow the ICM trend though 9,7,9,7,9,6 which is rather intriguing. Interesting to see what the next ICM poll will show.
Sky - Yougov/ Sunday Times
Con 38
Lab 31
LD 19
Why do I as a voter gain the impression the Tories have no game plan?
They act as if they have none.
Surely they are not that dumb?
All the Labour people on here make me laugh.Your party is behind in the polls and you think a poll showing you 6 points adrift is GOOD NEWS lol
467 The polizaration maybe kicking in after Cameron has left the change centrist social reform agenda, and reverting to his old style thatcherite roots on the workplace.
Yougov
C 38 (+2)
L 31 (-1)
LD 19 (-1)
Majority of 20+
ICM would give majority of just under 20
Africa has got poorer over the last four decades? Evidence please.
by Socrates March 20th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
A Google will find info. Much of it is not in any one place. But it is there. One text I have on this computer says this:
The usual, and broader, ‘failure’ mentioned has been in terms of economic growth rates. While Africa’s GDP growth actually outstripped Western Europe’s over the last half century, population growth was so much faster in Africa that per capita income growth has been sluggish indeed. The exceptions are small –Botswana and Mauritius have both posted East-Asian like growth rates for extended periods, but have a combined population of about two and a half million people. According to the World Bank, GDP per capita in Sub Saharan Africa rose from $477 to $561 in the 1960-99 period. In the same period, high-income countries increased their incomes from an average of $13,000 to an average of $31,000. Africa’s income as a percentage of the wealthy world fell from 4.8 percent to 1.9 percent over that period, then –a dramatic divergence.
Is Africa A Failure? Charles Kenny 12/04/2007
Of course much depends on whether it is straight GDP or purchasing power adjusted, whether you include South Africa or not dramatically changes the figures as that is a giant economy which could swallow the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. And if you include oil rich African states it changes again.
There are some successes such as Botswana but they are few and burgeoning populations and low real growth combine to make many African populations poorer than they were forty years ago.
Do the blood diamonds figure in the GDP? Certainly the wars they finance effect the overall figures.
The comparison is often made with South Korea and that is an interesting study too.
Lastly you may find figures for the benefit of aid. The latest I remember is that aid worth one percent of GDP raises GDP by one quarter of one percent to one half of one percent. That is not a very good return yet the aid agencies refuse to question their own method and its underlying logic.
Good hunting in the electrons. I suppose the World Bank and IMF sites might be the place to start.
So in other words Tory support is pretty firm at 38%.