Now a pollster from India enters the fray
March 17th, 2010
| RNB - New Delhi | Mar 10 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 39% | 33.2% |
| LABOUR | 31% | 36.2% |
| LIB DEMS | 20% | 22.7% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 5.5% | – |
What do think of RNB’s numbers and unique analysis?
Thanks to Gabble on a thread last night for spotting this - a new opinion poll from a leading research company from India which carried out a survey of Westminster voting intentions from a sample of 1,800 voters from March 4 to March 10th.
The findings, with comparisons on the 2005 general election result, are broadly in line with what we’ve seen from other firms but what marks RNB out is how it has sought to project their findings into seat totals. For in its press release it suggests that the 8 point margin would be enough to give Cameron a majority.
“…There are certain evidence & indications in our poll analysis that the conservatives may be doing better in their key target seats, which would mean an overall Majority at the National support. If the above figures are translated into the seats according to our experts, the Conservative party would have an overall Majority of 30+ seats…
The uniform “Swing” concept is above all a tool for estimating the likely relationship between seats & votes but in this General Election of UK, we have noticed some regional & local deviations from uniformity which causes the disproportionate in large change in seats.”
What we don’t have is any detail on how the survey was carried out. Even the basic information of whether it over the phone, face-to-face or on-line is not there. I’ve not been able to find dataset in the form that we would expect from a UK firm.
What I think we underestimate is the international interest in the election and the desire of pollsters, world-wide, to demonstrate their expertise.
By my reckoning RNB is now the eleventh firm to have carried out a poll. What will be the total by May 6th?
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Surely not first?
Incidentally, an Indian polling firm could be very good. Indian general elections are hugely complex and would baffle most pollsters but polls have been getting significantly better. I expect they have learnt some useful tricks (especially on differential swings) which could be useful and hence their confidence in predicting seat totals.
And third! Has JohnLoony gone to sleep….?
Not another narrative-non-compliant pollster. This is playing havoc with the situation.
The FT is carrying a feature saying that the Conservatives are not winning votes in the north of England, where Labour pork barrel feeds the population, and the private sctor has disappeared from view.
The message from Greece is that insolvent governments don’t even pay the wages, with public sector workers not paid since January. If I was a public sector working worried about my future in England, I’d be backing Osborne. The salary is more likely to keep turning up than if Brown splurges another trillion.
FT Link (subscription only but might work) - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcd76ee2-3135-11df-8e6f-00144feabdc0.html
How strange, a UK poll done for an Indian outlet. It seems to lie in the middle range of outcomes and positive for the blues. It’s a week old now but still useful.
Dominic Lawson in the Indie..
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-polls-do-much-more-for-the-pollsters-than-for-the-public-1921848.html
Large sample size means that geo/demo subsamples - if and when they become available - are also sizeable, thus limiting margin of error.
Mike, hopefully your contacts and/or reputation will ease the way to obtaining not just more basic info, but also crosstabs.
Speaking of foreign interest and involvement, does anyone have good rundown of non-UK pollsters AND political consultants being (or likely to be) employeed by the various parties?
For example, are Tories going to be using the Wizard of Oz, Lynton Crosby again? Is Labour going to be assisted by bevy of Clintonistas and Obamamamas? Can LibDems and Nats tap into unUK expertise. And perhaps most interesting of all, will David Cameron’s Conservatives be able to enlist GOP heavies no longer subject to W/GOP Blairophilia?
You Gov apart, everyone is forecasting very sizeable Tory leads
5, Tap - does work w/op reg, thanks!
I think it is extremely cool that foreign pollsters take an interest. It is beyond cool that the Indians have sussed the flaws in UNS at their first foray into the UK market. I hope to see more and more polls from whoever has the competence to deliver. More competition in this market will be an incentive to get the outputs right for all players.
2. M in Tokyo - “Indian general elections are hugely complex and would baffle most pollsters… “
Excellent point.
The UK is nowhere near as complex as India, which has dozens of significant languages and ethnic groups. However, the UK is far more complex that most pollsters and political commentators are prepared to acknowledge.
Another firm used to dealing with complexity (as Angus Reid do in Canada) is to be strongly welcomed.
The London-based pollsters are definitely complacent. The entry of new players into the market (eg. Edinburgh’s TNS-BMRB) gives them a well-deserved boot up the bahoochie.
12 Stuart Dickson
“Indian general elections are hugely complex and would baffle most pollsters… “
…
The UK is nowhere near as complex as India, which has dozens of significant languages and ethnic groups. However, the UK is far more complex that most pollsters and political commentators are prepared to acknowledge.
How do the Indian pollsters cope with Punjabi Nationalist Parties?
The headline figures are encouragingly close to ICM, but I wonder whether the sample size of 1800 is sufficiently large to be able to draw the conclusions made in the commentary about differential marginal swing and its effect on seat count.
I am beginning to suspect that that the Andy Cooke - R & M Smithson - pb.com assumptions about unwind are becoming received knowledge.
It would be interesting to see the datasets. As the poll results approximate to ICM it is probable that ICM rather than ARPO type weighting is being applied.
Radio 4 ’s Profile have a 13 minute programme covering Baroness Cathy Ashton, AKA Mrs Peter Kellner here http://bit.ly/d7nulI
‘Labour urged to return £2,000 donation from Purcell quango’
http://www.scotsman.com/glasgow/Labour-urged-to-return-2000.6157472.jp
Hmmmm… isn’t it odd that an Edinburgh newspaper is making all the running on the Purcell scandal? Where are Glasgow’s (ahem) “finest” journalists.
It stinks to high heaven, and I’m afraid that Glasgow’s fourth estate is strongly tainted with the stench.
The pound seems to have gained against the Indian Rupee overnight.
I hope the Indian government doesn’t have a Lord Mandleson figure. Otherwise ‘RNB - New Delhi’ would risk being accused of talking the Rupee down.
For those more familiar with GBP:USD ratios Sterling is trading at $1.5224. Is there a ’swing forward’ correlation with the polls?
17 Mandelson even
@16 Stuart, how do you think us Glasgow Council tax payers feel? Like someone said on an earlier thread, if this had been London & Boris it would be carnage.
If Labour’s paymasters are UNITE, then who are the paymasters of the Daily Record and Evening Times in Glasgow?
Their failure to ask questions shows them to be in the pocket of someone, cetainly their failure to ask what happened is a total embarrassment and confirms the Daiy Record is a comic with sectarian soccer information, and for a long time has not deserved to be known by the term NEWSpaper.
The proles will still read it as long as a celeb has had an affair somewhere on the planet…..
“More competition in this market will be an incentive to get the outputs right for all players.”
YouGov could have a problem with this. Surely they must be committed to their new methodology until the election is over.
HALF THE CABINET ARE PAID BY UNITE
“HALF the Cabinet, including Gordon Brown and 12 of his ministers, are bankrolled in their constituencies by militant union Unite, a shock dossier revealed yesterday.
It showed the organisation behind the devastating British Airways strikes starting this weekend gave the PM £1,000 to help pay for his campaign work.
Defence secretary Bob Ainsworth received £4,500. The dossier also shows ten cabinet ministers - including Schools Secretary Ed Balls - are members of Unite.”
A full list of payments are given.
“It has poured more than £460,000 into 148 Labour constituencies around the country. The cash is helping fund the election campaigns of 90 Labour MPs and 58 of the Party’s candidates.
On top of that, 110 Labour MPs and 59 of its candidates are fully signed-up members of the union.
Since Mr Brown became leader, Unite has pumped £11million into Labour’s coffers - a quarter of all donations.”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2895689/Half-the-Cabinet-are-paid-by-Unite.html
So, I read the poll in saying something like 40/30/20/10 nationally but something like 42/29/21/8 in the key English Battleground where the election will be won or lost. But that’s just a guess. But it’s the information we need.
When we get the tables from them, it seems to me that we need to see whether they have subsampled regionally and importantly then tried to work-out the seats at a regional level before assembling the total nationally….
Which is what YouGov should be doing. And all the others. At some stage all these fancy polling firms have got to start to interpret their headline figures into seat totals building-up from the regional result levels. Seth ‘o Logue [12] is right. The UK is complex and it’s about time the pollsters started to recognise this and, if necessary increased their sample sizes to get the appropriate level of granularity.
The Indians seem to have made a start on this. Well Done.
17 - Seth.
Isn’t the pound what it was three weeks ago?
Never has so much type been wasted in one cause.
Although I do appreciate Mikes new Polling slogan.
“You’ve tried the cowboys now try the Indians”
Worry for the Tories is that they are piling votes on even more in the South and not breaking the threshold in the North.
Bury for example where they need to make breakthroughs has just set the highest council Tax in England and i think the council is Tory.
That wont help.
Interesting on Unite / Brown.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article7064620.ece
Of betting interest
“Unite is using its personnel, its money and its local muscle to win seats for its supporters and its officials in Parliament. And it will use those seats and that sway to help shore up Gordon Brown until the moment when the power can be used to help Ed Balls become leader of the Labour Party.”
Would they really be that mad?
We can hope.
I would imagine they use a phone bank based in India. That would introduce a very large problem into getting a fair sample right from the outset.
24 tim
It opened at 1.5484 on Feb 22, so current rate is two and a half cents down. Still it is over 4 cents up on its 3 week low.
The real comparison should be with a basket of currencies over, say, a month. It is definitely trending down: over 10% this year.
Finding a correlation with political polls is fashionable and edgy. I am surprised you object.
24 Morning Tim..any thoughts on the rumour of Unite asking the Teamsters to get involved with its didpute with BA…Also the Australian Unions..
Looks like the “others” vote may be high come GE day in the North then timmo.
@24 , tim, just about every news outlet has made a connection between recent falls in Sterling and the polls indicating uncertainty about a clear election result, and subsequent rises when that changes. Of course it isn’t the only factor.
e.g. Analysts said opinion polls showing Britain’s main opposition Conservatives were back on course to win an election expected in May had helped to shore up sentiment on the day.
Financial markets fear a minority or coalition government would fail to cut effectively Britain’s budget deficit, forecast to reach 178 billion pounds this year, or more than 12 percent of gross domestic product.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE62F24B20100316
So yes, lots of column inches but not just on PB.
Cowboys and Indians
26: Whats that? Balls next leader of Labour? What have I been tipping for the last few months??
Whilst tim’s been lead up the garden path by Darling, Sphereoids is the one with the power base.
19. Kristin - “… if this had been London & Boris it would be carnage.”
Indeed.
I am certain that many Glasgow council-tax payers would be absolutely delighted if som London-based, Toronto-based or Delhi-based investigative journalists began enquiring into the filth in the West-central Scotland mafia (HQ = John Smith House).
The Scottish “press” (read Labour lackeys) will never report the truth.
New entrants into the Scottish media market would make an absolute killing, if they just told the straight truth. Honesty is the one aspect totally lacking from the Scottish media market today.
How hard can it be to just report a story “straight”? And yet the Scottish media (with the BBC in the vanguard) never, ever succeed in that basic journalistic task.
25 I think not. I wouldn’t be surprised if in fact Conservative majorities fell, in some of their Southern strongholds, as in such places, voters who aren’t terribly happy with Cameron can vote UKIP, in the safe knowledge that it won’t jeapordise the seat.
The polling from Labour-held marginal seats suggests that this is where the Conservatives are achieving their best swings. I think that Northern seats that depend heavily on public spending will be bad for the Conservatives, but they’re mostly safely Labour, in any case. The seats that are more economically mixed, eg around Leeds, or in Lancashire, will probably see better results.
23 I think that’s a very good point. Polls would have to have larger samples, to do this, and be conducted much more like exit polls, where the emphasis is on getting the seat totals right, rather than vote shares. This must be hugely difficult in India, so it’s a good thing that this company has now entered the fray.
I think that Experian operate along these lines, with their categories of voters such as Motorway Man, Urban Intelligence, Happy Families etc., though I don’t know how much political polling they do.
Crikey, 11 pollsters, including a Canadian and an Indian firm. Why such overseas interest? Not that I’m complaining.
25 - Cameron is increasingly referring to Clarke Pickles and Hague (!)
Presumably because they aren’t southern posh boys - There will be a reason for this, and I think you’ll find some interesting regional variations in the next election.
28 - The Tory argument, such as it is, seems to be that a hung parliament will result in higher interest rates and a higher pound.
Although Ken hasn’t had brunch yet so that may have changed by PMQ’s
36 C’mon , surely the bunker must have passed instructions/thoughts down by now.What is your view on the Teamsters becoming invlolved in the BA-Unite dispute
36
its only 7.30am and you are smearing away, both directly and by implicatiion.
29 - Clearly UNITE are following the example of bankers and hedge funds managers in relocating if they don’t get their preferred result at the election.
“more fire in the Conservative belly “?
George Osborne, who is in charge of the Conservatives’ election strategy, …… said: “Starting with Conservative leadership we need more fire in the Conservative belly - to absolutely up the energy levels.
…Mr Osborne added: “The Conservative leadership, the party, the whole Conservative family needs to take the fight to Labour. Understand that we’ve got weeks to go before an election which will determine the future of the next generation.
……………..
Mr Osborne will wait until after next week’s Budget before revealing what his plans are on National Insurance, but it is now clear that he wants to offer a tax cut.
In his interview he said: “Let me see what the Budget involves. People will know more about the Conservatives the closer they get to the election.
…Labour has announced that National Insurance will go up from April next year. Which means that anyone earning more than £20,000 – around 20 million people in all – will pay more tax from next year.
The increase in employers’ NICS rates has been particularly controversial. Business groups have warned that that it will cost jobs, and called for that rise to be scrapped.
Mr Cameron has attacked that rise as a tax on business and said he would like to reverse it to try and help the recovery.
Mr Osborne, who is also under pressure to reverse other Labour tax rises such as the new 50p rate on high earners, has previously just said that addressing NI would be his priority, but could not guarantee money would be found to address it.
Labour’s tax policy appeared mired in confusion yesterday after Alistair Darling’s deputy admitted that taxes may well have to rise if the party wins the election.
That came just days after Liam Byrne, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, had stated that no new tax rises would be needed to fulfil its commitment to pay down the deficit. He also ruled out a rise in Vat.
But yesterday Mr Byrne attempted to dramatically row back from that position, fearing he had tied the Chancellor’s hands just days before the vital pre election Budget is delivered.
When he was asked by the BBC about whether he stood by his comments about ruling out a Vat rise, he said: “No, I mean Chancellors reserve the right to come back to tax matters at every budget.”
Yesterday, Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, warned that a government trying to “ram through” spending cuts without popular support could be “torn to pieces” and face huge social unrest on a scale akin to protests in Greece.
The European Commission has criticised the Government for not having a “sufficiently ambitious” plan to reduce the deficit.
Kenneth Clarke, the shadow business secretary, said the Commission was right and the government needed to cut spending more rapidly, which could be done easily. The Conservatives would reduce the “bulk” of the structural deficit.
Yesterday, politicians of all colours were warned that they are underestimating the financial scale of welfare demands over the next 20 years. An all-party commission on public services found that the future demand will be between £60-£80 billion above that predicted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7458353/General-Election-2010-George-Osborne-urges-David-Cameron-to-fire-up.html
39..Ok Tim…The word from the bunker is to tie it in to evil Bankers..That is a god ood one..But its quite early, could change..
‘Labour drops guarantees on health and schools’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7063223.ece
Is it deja vu all over again ?
Labour seems to be getting more acrimonious on the Blairite \Brownunite split. Just looking at Purnell’s seat Whelan and his men are trying to build an entrenched position post GE
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7064751.ece
Is this going to end up with a re-run of the 1981/2 left right battels for Labour ? And have the LibDems got the bottle to get Blairites to jump on board and leapfrog Labour ? Or do they simply lack the ambition to form a government ?
42 RD
I haven’t seen tim’s reply on why to vote Labour, did I miss it or are we now day 4 and waiting ?
This is the three hundredth consecutive poll reporting a Tory lead.
45.He’s still thinking, so reverts to the hague, osborne mantra, not very entertaining but at least we know he’s still alive.
45..AB..Still waiting..but the bunker is probably a little quiet at this time .Someone should tell him that Ken Clarke doesnt normally speak at PMQ’s.
44 Alanbrooke
Is this going to end up with a re-run of the 1981/2 left right battels for Labour ? And have the LibDems got the bottle to get Blairites to jump on board and leapfrog Labour ? Or do they simply lack the ambition to form a government ?
I think you’ll find pretty much any labour MP with more than 2 brain cells will be seriously considering where their future lies. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the majority of those fresh faced enthusiastic new Labour candidates, who managed to get elected, all crossed the floor to the Lib Dems staight after the election.
Wouldn’t be too surprising after they’d seen what Brown was really like close up.
Con gain New Delhi!
2, that’s a good point.
44 Certainly if Dave does get his majority is that a post-loss Labour party is going to look alot like a sack of turbocharged ferrets. Their civil war will be the nastiest in British political history.
The unions will win in the end because they are the ones with the money and the muscle. New Labour is dead already and Brown is the face of union / lefty Labour. BAlls might well be their frontman. (DAve will be pleased).
With Ed Balls as the face of a hard core militant lefty unionised Labour party I expect Dave to be in power for - oooh - 9 consecutive terms?
SeanT will just love this:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7064679.ece
‘Scotland rules the waves’
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2895399/Alex-Salmond-hails-5bn-marine-power-deal.html
Scotland is set to realise potential as ‘Saudi Arabia of marine power’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/transport-environment/scotland-is-set-to-realise-potential-as-saudi-arabia-of-marine-power-1.1013886
‘Historic marine power deals signed’
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1649198?UserKey=
Osborne “stokes fire in Tory bellies”
Osborne as Henry V.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_1zLNV2F_hRE/SeHyuXAiKkI/AAAAAAAABXs/Bxon2EROb7k/s400/george+osborne.jpg
48 RD
hmmm..
a bit silly if you ask me, he’s now developing a following on this question and more he puts it off, the more interest it generates and the better the answers must be.
Maybe he’s just bottled the answer, Labour have form on bottling.
Tee hee
For the reasons we have discussed, this is very significant intervention by Peter Mandelson. If he succeeds, and he will, it stops in its tracks the cunning plan that would allow Ed Balls to succeed Brown.
Presumably, he also working behind the scenes to get the strike called off.
We can expect events to move quickly. Mandelson will not anything to get in the way of Labour’s narrative in the lead up to the Budget and the critical pre-dissolution period. Then there is PMQs later….Watch this space.
Over and above all that, it is critical that New Labour project continues and the party chooses the right leader as a successor to Gordon Brown.
Peter Mandelson has to ensure this happens.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/03/ba-and-unite-enter-lord-mandelson.html
54: tim’s reason for voting labour is so they can tax little old grannies for having a dog, and so he can take them to the dog crusher if they don’t pay.
53…Tim,why are you scouring blog spots whe you know there are a few issues to address on PB..are you doing a Gordon…It is a wednesday after all..
1800 respondents would suggest telephone poll, ‘Indian firm’ would suggest they’ve booked time from one of the India-based contact centre companies (or possibly using their own down-time if they’ve already got their own staff).
Right off the bat I’d question whether a bank of callers with pronounced Indian accents are ever likely to get a balanced response, especially from WWC voters.
55: Mandy’s like Canute trying to hold back the tides of Unite washing away the last remains of the decaying sandcastle of New Labour. Look at the cabinet, the Blairites have been purged.
49 Blue rog
The fun should be more around the rump Blairites. Miliband and co. do they see the writing on the wall that Brown will hang on as long as possible and then hand over to Balls supported by Unite as TU and with their MPs.
If they stay they have a fairly bleak future, but can fight for the “soul” of the party; or they can leave and have a chance to still do something in politics with people more attuned to their ideals.
Tough call. I suspect even Lord Voldemort must be having some difficult thoughts.
53 tim
And you claim he is only a 40% economist.
Here is a man that can put two and two together and get Plus Four.
What is the betting that Unite call off the strike at 11.55 just before PMQs therefore(in their eyes)wrong footing Cameron.
27 - The Guardian has a whole story on its front page about exactly this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/16/secret-unite-plan-labour-safe-seats
It’ll be interesting to see whether all the focus on Unite has any impact in the polls. I can imagine that it would jangle badly with those aged 55 and above who remember the 70s well, but those are usually the voters who are most settled in their voting intention anyway.
62 - What odds would you like on that?
17. 34. How many other quangos in Scotland behaved in that manner?
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Labour-urged-to-return-2000.6157472.jp
Some of the money for Wendy Alexander appeared to come from ex-quangomen, but was any dosh for her coming from Quangoes?
Is this just a scam by ScotLab or is Brown turning a blind eye to it in England and Wales?
63. antifrank
I’m a lot younger than 55, and I remember the frequent power cuts in the 70s, and the Winter of Discontent.
The Government was accused last night of delaying the publication of potentially embarrassing crime figures until after the general election, in contravention of its own rules.
The Youth Justice Board (YJB) told The Independent that statistics showing the number of crimes committed by under-18s would not be published until the autumn, nearly six months later than the normal publication date.
An official for the government agency said that the data was being delayed because of the looming election and the official “purdah” period, which prevents civil servants from releasing overtly party political information.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-scale-of-youth-crime-suppressed-until-after-election-1922359.html
What next, stop the ONS publishing GDP figures ? They wouldn’t do that would they ?
33. Balls is one of two people with substantial power bases for a Labour leadership contest. I’m still tipping Harman. For clarification, that’s not in the Jack Dromey sense.
67 - I remember all the power cuts. As a child, I found it all rather exciting.
Tim; What are the fees at Ottershaw School? It is the boarding school in Surrey where Charles Whelan was educated.
Surrey born and educated at boarding school, that makes him posh. No wonder he went to all that trouble to get a new accent.
23 Financier
That is one hell of an attack line from our boys at The Sun.
If I were Willie Walsh I would feel more squeezed than a Lib Dem in a CON-LAB marginal.
70..You might have the chance to get excited again soon..
70. “… I found it all rather exciting.”
I used to hide behind the sofa during Dr Who.
I’ve said too much…
If the Blairite rump of the Labour party want to stop Spheroids, they need a credible candidate. Step forward Miliband Minor. Oh, wait…
Ed Miliband MP, Energy and Climate Change Secr…
Today programme, Radio 4
Mr Miliband said that he accepted the ASA ruling on two government climate change adverts but urged people to look at “the wider picture”.
“I accept the ruling, and I accept it should have been better phrased,” he said.
“The facts are that in northern Europe, the IPCC says that there’s a 90% chance that we will have extreme rainfall as a result of climate change.
“We should have probably made it clearer that that was a prediction.”
“Science is not uncertain, there’s a clear and very very high likelihood but we should have made that clearer.”
He said that, overall, he thought the campaign was “successful” because it drove a large number of people to the accompanying website, and urged people to look at the “wider picture”.
74 - If that’s your worst confession, you’re safe enough. I have a picture of myself aged 9 in the grounds of the Abbey in Bury St Edmunds in a paisley shirt with an Osmonds-style haircut. It is safely under lock and key.
This Leader in The Herald has an interesting prediction of seat distribution in Scotland:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/herald-view/don-t-sit-out-the-election-every-vote-will-count-1.1013085
Do you think its slowly dawning on tim that his dream of a post Brown world where Darling, Johnson and the Millibands usher in a new Blairite dawn is slowly cumbling in the face of the Whelan/Balls/Unite onslaught?
You couldn’t make it up.
Labour hits low earners once again - this time with their pensions !
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article7064689.ece
dizzy_thinks
Blogpost: Labour Twitter Engagement Tsar says ‘leave me alone proles’ http://bit.ly/bDOssO
78..AB i got hit by Gordons raid on pension funds when he took over as Chancellor and then again in the 10p fiasco..I reckon to be woorse off by a minimum of £125.00 pm
Another day of Unite stories on the Today programme, this time about their proposal to glean support from the teamsters union in the states.
I don’t know what ’support’ they’re expecting but linking themselves with an organisation who are, in the eyes of many British people, tainted by their association with gangsters and led by one James Hoffa Jnr(!), doesn’t seem to be a wise move.
Morning All,
Knowing there are ex-pats out there reading this blog. ITS YOUR LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER TO VOTE
http://www.dontleaveyourvoteathome.com/
Conservatives Abroad are recommending British expats need to be on the register by 1st April to be certain their vote can count.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2010/03/philip-dunne-mp-now-is-the-last-chance-for-expats-to-register-to-vote-for-change.html
Don’t lose your chance of getting rid of Gordon……
Labour voters please ignore this post!
Bookies’ best odds - Eurovision (Oslo, 29 May)
Azerbaijan 8/1
Norway 8/1
Armenia 12/1
Denmark 12/1
Croatia 14/1
Germany 14/1
Greece 14/1
Israel 14/1
Sweden 14/1
Belgium 18/1
…
Yoookay 100/1 (bwin)
So it is confirmed; one of labour’s biggest Scottish supporters got an extra 6 million as compensation for moving his factory to avoid a new road. He complained to the Scottish first minister, then a labour matey from “the West”. 6 million more, easy as that.
Nae borra at taw. ANd no MSM coverage…. Funny that.
Good friend of Brown it seems. And also a good friend of Purcell who jumped ship from Glasgow when the fingers in the dyke stopped working. The fact this donor guy was directly involved in the contracts and won them fair and square is of course a coincidence.
Well not actually a dyke but you understand what I mean…..
Why am I even surprised that labour supporters get huge wads of money and then donate some back, robbing Peter to pay Paul as it were.
No wonder they are avoiding an independent audit in Glasgow and Strathclyde’s finest who have been called in to investigate are not sure what to do. Well they are, they annoyingly have an obligation to investigate it.
If they really chased this up to the nth degree who would it involve? Where would it end, after all brown and Murphy know the donor very well. Who knows, but it has lots of people scared.
The Scottish press of course has no interest, the latest poll from MORI which picked this increasing annoyance with Labour was shelved from publication in the Scottish Mail as it ( allegedly ) gave the SNP a massive lead over Labour. So with the Tories nowhere north of Birmingham let alone Carlisle as the FT noted it is time to cheer the old Red Guard again over the line it seems.
I feel an “Angleterre - nul points” coming on.
How exciting!
82 jsfl
Labour voters please ignore this post!
No need to ask.
The Returning Officer will confirm their votes in a missing register.
20 (refs 17 now) “Stuart, how do you think us Glasgow Council tax payers feel?”
My guess would be that you’re not wholly surprised by the revelations, except perhaps that they’ve seen the light of day?
“Like someone said on an earlier thread, if this had been London & Boris it would be carnage”
And if it had been London & Ken?
Liberal Youth alive (just) but not very well.
http://tinyurl.com/ylq4r8k
“For the election of the Chair, there were 75 valid ballots cast”
So few engaged members is in line with the Lib Dems decline in support amongst the 18-24s. The recent ICM poll found that twice as many were supporting the Conservatives than the LDs.
41: Interesting piece. Has Osborne really implicitly criticised Cameron for lack of energy and fire, or is that just Telegraph spin? Either way, it’s quite a useful theme for Labour, since the curious sense of drift on the Tory side in recent weeks hasn’t gone unremarked even here (sometimes in the form of “we are preparing our Wunderwaffen for the real campaign”). People don’t want a lazy PM, and that’s one charge which can’t be levelled at Brown.
Morning all.
Contrary to what tim has been saying, it looks as though the Tories attack on the Unite/Labour links has been very well timed. The BA strike means that it makes the front pages and main news bulletins, whereas if they had made this attack at any other time it would have received very little coverage.
On the political impact, certainly it will reinforce the determination of many who remember the 70s to get Labour out. What is more, whether or not the BA strikes go ahead, the threat of the strikes has already caused disruption. That is now linked in the public’s mind with Labour; another small negative to add to the narrative of the final 8 weeks.
On the implications for Labour, there is clearly a major struggle going on behind the scenes. Unite’s grip on large sections of the party is already very strong, and will be even stronger after the election, as many Blairites are retiring or will lose their seats, and many of the new candidates in winnable seats are placed there by Unite. Added to that is the financial stranglehold Unite have on the party.
Clearly, therefore, any replacement for Brown will have to be someone at least acceptable to Unite, and very probably actively promoted by them. Of course, it may well be that Unite itself is divided (!), but that matters little in practice; in situations like this, things are decided by a limited number of influential figures prepared to put in hard work and ruthlessly manoeuvring to get their way.
Mandelson and others will fight this, but union muscle and money is likely to win in the end.
It seems therefore that in the Next Labour Leader market, we should downgrade the chances of Blairite figures such as David Miliband succeeding, and think much more about figures acceptable to Unite. I think I have been too quick to dismiss the chances of Balls succeeding his master. Insane though such a choice would be, and despite his many enemies in the party, perhaps it could happen.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100030243/secret-message-to-agent-whelan-from-agent-runner-gove-keep-up-the-good-work/
77. Indeed, tim has seen the future and it is Balls and Benn, the flowerpot men. Their mission: to make grayling look like a safe pair of hands.
Boris and Ken would both have been pinged David, what happens in Scotland never makes the papers or aljabeeba unless someone else starts the story first. Be it from England or online sources.
90 NPMP
I’d prefer a lazy one frankly as they do less damage.
The full “Jack W Election Service” enters the fray today.
I can’t promise any exotic content from India or Canada but simply the promise of a Highlander in full swing(back) or perhaps not !!
Tick tock ….
89.Just be grateful, if Cameron wasn’t ‘lazy’, just think how far you would be behind.
Ladbrokes - Next UK General Election - Number Of Scottish Conservative Seats
3 or less 6/4
4-6 13/8
7 or more 9/4
If anybody honestly thought that the Scottish Tories were about to gain either Angus or Perth & North Perthshire, then the 4-6 band would be FAV, and the 7+ band would be a lot shorter.
Funny that.
The whole union thing bemuses me. Can they be so non self aware that they don’t see dinosaur type return-to-the-1970s union trouble making is a giant vote loser?
The forces of darkness have indeed won control of the Labour party and so Sauron plots and schemes. The trouble is the more he succeeds the more Labour will be out of power.
Dave will no doubt pass legislation to force unions to ditribute any political funds they have to the party chosen by each individual member. The Labour / union stranglehold can be easily broken. Where will that leave Ed Balls and his rump of lefty nutters?
89 - Can I exempt myself from your final observation? I’m all in favour of lazy politicians. Politicians should follow the Hippocratic oath: “first, do no harm”. Far too often, politicians of all stripes feel obliged to do something. Usually, it’s a really bad idea. Some indolence on the part of politicians is to be encouraged.
89 NPMP
Is “Wunderwaffen” a breed of dog that attacks through Nottinghamshire letter flaps?.
We now know why Gordon did a U-turn on insuring dangerous dogs.
95. Jack W
Ah cannae wait.
Jack, will you be predicting the date of the opening of The Bear Gates?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traquair_House
88 Which recent ICM poll found that the Conservatives had twice as much support as the LibDems in 18-24 year olds ?
Field Marshal Erich von Manstein was probably the best German general in WW2. His view on “lazy” officers.
You get two traits in officers intelligence and drive.
Officers who are intelligent and diligent are useful - they make the the best staff officers
Officers who are stupid and lazy - leave them alone they do no harm
Officers who are stupid but hard working - sack them immediately they run around creating pointless work for everybody ( that means you von Braun !)
Officers who are intelligent but lazy - these are the best officers as they seek to innovate to save themselves and others more work.
Patrick, good point. If people wish to pay money they can, and tick the box they wish to pay into, not just having it going straight to labour.
Although having your own MP’s making policy would keep you in good stead.
Pictures of families stuck at airports at prime time because UNITE called this strike will not sit well with the average voter.
Brown dithering in a meaningful response will only confirm what we think about him in times of difficulty.
Baldwin appeared to be indolent, but he did turn out Lloyd George and kept him out of office from 1922. Indolence masked a ruthless streak.
87 Well if you are Martin Bright and you pointed to dodgy dealings around Ken’s City Hall you lost your job, as did your editor, Charlie Whelan insulted your wife and the massed ranks of the Guardinista Regiment rose up to attack the critics.
Thinking out loud, has the system of Andy Cooke or Robert’s VIPA been swiped by a foreign agency? We want to know! Clearly while welcoming any poll which suggests the Tories are heading north again, the fact we dont know its methodology or polling manner makes it as much an unknown quantity as the new YouGov daily polls.
Separately and back in the real world, it seems that Labour 2010 is looking more like Labour 1979 every day.
We have the fundraising wing of the Labour Party now seeking to intimidate one of Britain’s few remaining companies with a worldwide presence by asking its overseas brethern to boycott its flights.
We have a chancellor of the Exchequer who is going to have to walk through union picketlines in order to deliver his budget speech which is already being considered on a par with the finer works of the Brothers Grimm. Will Labour MPs cross the picket lines to hear the “gracious speech”? A real moral dilemna for the comrades!
Now we have the Advertising Standards Authority pulling Millibland the Younger’s multi-million pound green propaganda adverts because they are misleading. Surely someone in the Department for climate Change should have realised that using the word “will” instead of “may” could lay them open to a challenge of misleading the public. I happen to believe that man is probably assisting in the acceleration of global warming but I also accept it has happened naturally several times over the past few million years. I also think the best way of tackling it is forcing contraception on the third world plus India where populations are growing at an alarming rate. Presumably the Chinese single baby policy will eventualyl lead to a reduction in their population.
89 NPMP Hmmm…Labour stampeding to victory by campaigning on the “useful” Cameron is Lazy theme. Good luck.
101 (cont)
Maybe the Holy Father could squeeze in the opening cermony at Traquair House during his Scottish state visit in September?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2895348/Mass-welcome-for-Pope-Benedict-XVI-in-Scotland.html
Off topic, but betting-related and very relevant to my interests. Does anyone know when Betfair propose to settle March bets in the “Election date - month” market? The final date for a March election to be called must surely be passed now?
89 - After saying he only spent 40% of his time on economics, I expected the boy Osborne to say he was “giving 150% for the team” in his preferred role.
110 antifrank
March 2010?
Or didn’t you check?
O/T: Today’s Matt cartoon is specially for us on PB.com:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Bookies’ best prices - Brighton Pavilion
Grn EVS (various)
Con 7/4 (various)
Lab 7/2 (various)
LD 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
UKIP 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
101 Stuart, not the throne of Scotland as such, the Traquair House site says the Bear Gates stay closed until a Stuart King is crowned in London.
Bury for example where they need to make breakthroughs has just set the highest council Tax in England and i think the council is Tory.
That wont help.
by timmo March 17th, 2010 at 7:14 am
Timmo you have to ask the reason why they would do this with the election coming up,and reading below I would think I know who Joe Public will blame for paying more.
For Bury read the UK in 2011.
The M.E.N. revealed earlier this year that cash-strapped Bury is facing a £3.25m budget deficit.
Heads of all departments have identified savings of £2.5m and the rest has been identified through efficiency savings. The council is also facing a possible £12m payout to settle a legal row with underpaid women workers.
A range of money-saving measures will be discussed at the meeting, including fining motorists who jump queues by using bus lanes £60 and creating more spaces in town centre car parks.
Finance bosses in Bury are understood to be upset at the amount of money the government has given the town as its annual grant.
115. Ted
I wonder if King Charles III will not want to be crowned at both Westminster and Scone? Making him monarch of both realms, in the traditional fashion.
Charles II was, after all, the most recent monarch to be crowned at Scone (long before his English coronation).
111 I see Majority Man is trying to project the science of ‘tim-o-mathics’ onto others this morning.
Remember your numerical disaster over the agricultural subsidies last year, or was that another bot?
From the Labour party that said there were only 24 hours to save the NHS!!
From the Prime Minister who stated during his car crash interview with the public on Sunday there were a gazillion more nurses, doctors and beds in the NHS!!!
yet…….
this morning we see reported the following across the news channels (with one standard exception of course)
The government is to axe 30,000 beds in the England (Note the word ENGLAND) in an effort to improve patient care. Not anywhere else but only England. What? hey guys! axe some in Scotland dosen’t paitent care matter there as well? No? why not??? Gosh! perhaps then its nothing to do with paitent care maybe you are just bust and all you say is just decepetions on the public….Again.
Even the BMA are ripping them apart this morning as to how anyone can axe 30,000 beds and so called manage to improve patients care.
Come on Labour you have run out of money admit it and there is nothing left to keep these beds going. No evidence of any kind will ever be seen by anyone of any increased paitent care as a result of wantonly slashing 30,000 beds. As the gentleman on Sunday stated when his mother went for a operation due to the lack of beds eventually died. 12 hours in a corriodor??? Labour government 13 years in??? all brown can say is sorry …SORRY!!! WHAT??
Menawhile a german doctor apparently was brought in to fix staff shortages (even though we have a *insert made up number here* extra doctors, nurses etc etc) and then apparently killed a grandmother. Thats all before we get to all the forms and pen pushing thats required rather than ‘patients care’. Labour has failed the NHS in all areas as it has also failed the country overall.
Labours lies and deceptions are now exposed for all to see as they ‘flip flop’ in a panick just desperately placing sticking plasters over anything they can just to keep things looking apparently good until the GE. Its like a dam slowing bursting as the weight of destruction they have caused presses down on them. No longer can this go on this govenment must go and must go quickly for what use they have ever been for this country.
My only hope is the 30,000 beds will be struck from the areas of solid Labour support but as we all know the beds will actually be from Tory strongholds in an attempt to politically damage the sitting MP’s. A cynical and disgraceful use of the NHS by a party with no soul and truly the nasty party.
I would now say we have not only 8 weeks to save the NHS from the man who said he was so passionate about the NHS he is willing to slash 30,000 beds from it. We have 8 weeks to save the country as a whole.
Vote anyone you like, anyone but Labour.
Mark Senior March 17th, 2010 at 8:38 am “88 Which recent ICM poll found that the Conservatives had twice as much support as the LibDems in 18-24 year olds ?”
Mark I said the most recent one (this week). It had 9% LD and 19% Conservatives.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2010_mar_guardian_poll.pdf
But did I read it wrong?
117 SD
I seem to remember C2’s visit to Scotland wasn’t very successful. Are you hoping for a re-run ?
with an election coming up, isn`t it time that our politicians started focussing on some serious issues? For example petrol prices, an issue that affects us all in one way or another, this could, and should become an issue during the campaign
Paddy Power - Will MSN Overtake BBC By 2011?
No 1/5
Yes 3/1
122 toontoon
petrol doesn’t affect govt. ministers, they have drivers.
Meanwhile after Browns car crash interview on Sunday where he says crime is down the following appears well who’d have thought? Yet another crack appears in the Labour dam as it starts to break up?
Exclusive: Scale of youth crime suppressed until after election
Ministers accused of having ’something to hide’ over decision to delay figures
Wednesday, 17 March 2010
The Government was accused last night of delaying the publication of potentially embarrassing crime figures until after the general election, in contravention of its own rules.
The Youth Justice Board (YJB) told The Independent that statistics showing the number of crimes committed by under-18s would not be published until the autumn, nearly six months later than the normal publication date.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/exclusive-scale-of-youth-crime-suppressed-until-after-election-1922359.html
121. Alanbrooke
I’m sure that if Charles wanted to be crowned at Scone, the Scottish nation would give him a very warm welcome indeed!
It would even save a few Scots punds, as we would only have to transport the Stone of Destiny to Perth, and not all the way to London.
Then, in due course, perhaps William could take the English throne, and Harry the Scottish one? Similar to the splitting of the Swedish-Norwegian Union in 1905.
King Harry! Has a nice ring to it.
76. Stuart
“So Scotland, if Cameron wins Number 10, could again face years of learning to deal with a Government it played no part in delivering.”
Now Scotland will know how the English have felt the last 13 years.
76. Stuart
“So Scotland, if Cameron wins Number 10, could again face years of learning to deal with a Government it played no part in delivering.”
Now Scotland will know how the English have felt the last 13 years.
76. Stuart
“So Scotland, if Cameron wins Number 10, could again face years of learning to deal with a Government it played no part in delivering.”
Now Scotland will know how the English have felt the last 5(?) years.
Stuart - will the pontiff give Murphy enough left foot votes to hold his seat ?
I bet £20 at 8/11 :/
This poll also shows UKIP at 2%. This seems very low! Possibly UKIP voters are moving back to the Tories
William Hill - Yookay Capital of Culture
Norwich 6/4
Sheffield 9/4
Birmingham 3/1
Derry 4/1
Looking at that list, one hardly knows whether to laugh or cry.
126 SD
I was merely enquiring if you had an alternative motive. It’s a short hop from Stuart King to King Stuart!
Eck better learn to tug his forelock.
And on that happy note I am off, wish you and all other bloggers a happy St. Pats. ,maybe Mike will serve you something later with an Irish theme.
sorry about the multiple posts. pse delete the first two if poss.
122 toontoon
they are but mainly how to sneak a further 3p tax increase on the fuel pass joe public without them noticing or alternatively how to not do it yet avoid the cascades of derision from just about every financial body going for failing to address the huge deficit they have and in addition the massive debt they owe. Thats before you get to PFI for building all those hospitals that they are just about to cut 30,000 beds from.
All in the interest of patient care you understand * :winks: *
132 - There speaks the voice of the Scottish chauvinist. What is wrong with any of those choices? I’m biased, but Norwich in particular would make a great city of culture.
101/117 Stuart. Traquair has other claims of interest :
http://www.traquair.co.uk/content/products
Also the present chatelaine, Catherine Maxwell Stuart, stood for Labour in the 2001 general election coming a respectable third in Archie Kirkwood’s old constituency of Roxburgh and Berwickshire.
Jacobites would consider the claim of Charles III to lie with ‘Bonnie Prince Charlie’ …. thus the present Duke of Rothesay would become Charles IV.
90 Good analysis. Given that the government has accepted that there will need to be large cuts in the public sector in the next few years and it’s impossible to make those cuts without pay restraint and job losses, isn’t it a tad unwise for the Labour Party to ally itself so closely to a union certain to try to frustrate these unpleasant but necessary policies. Voters might worry that the deficit reduction isn’t going to happen.
136
Just wait when the Barnett formula produces big cuts in Scottish Spending and the SCOTS want it to be repealed…
132 - It has to be Sheffield.
Obviously I am biased.
116
answer is in the following words
“Finance bosses in Bury are understood to be upset at the amount of money the government has given the town as its annual grant.”
nuff said. Tory council and a re-run of leeds council ‘tramgate’
If you vote Tory the nasty party in No 10 will punish you.
Brown could well be leaving Unite, and have another Union back him.
Labour would then jump up about 2/3% in the polls.
91 The man they kept out according to NiIck Robinson is also a member of Unite. He’s back on the shortlist I hear.
126 The Norwegians insisted on a Danish prince rather than one from Sweden. Perhaps the Scots would chose one from Scandinavia rather than Britain.
120 So you are basing that statement on a subsample of 19 people . The similar massive subsample of 20 people in the previous Sun Tel/ICM poll had Con 26% LibDem 30% but the numbers involved are so small to be worthless to draw any conclusions from .
Daily Mail - New age of the union dinosaur: Brown’s handed control of Labour back to the militants, claim Tories
Whilst the headline VI numbers seem perfectly plausible, I am not entirely convinced about this poll.
We have no detail about methodology, weighting, data tables, etc.
However, if they are a legitimate outfit, then the more the merrier.
89 NPMP
“Has Osborne really implicitly criticised Cameron for lack of energy and fire, or is that just Telegraph spin? Either way, it’s quite a useful theme for Labour, since the curious sense of drift on the Tory side in recent weeks hasn’t gone unremarked even here (sometimes in the form of “we are preparing our Wunderwaffen for the real campaign”).”
It seems to me that the Tories are merely on manoeuvres at the moment. Like a Wellington in the Peninsula, they need to bring the enemy to battle on a field of their choosing - and on May 6th (or whenever). I guess the Tories have election plans for a 3, 4, 5 or 6 week campaign depending on when Brown calls the election. In the meantime they are largely keeping their powder dry, careful not to expend resources they will need in the campaign proper. There have been a few demonstrations, to keep the enemy engaged and prevent them from concentrating their forces, and a few skirmishes, which have smoked a few of the strategies that the enemy will use in the battle. This enables counter-measures to be developed.
But we neither need nor want a long campaign before the election proper; once the election has been announced, the Tories need to be able to hit labour hard, on a daily basis, and on ground of their choosing.
“People don’t want a lazy PM, and that’s one charge which can’t be levelled at Brown.”
As a number of people have said, it would be healthy to have a government that did less, so a lazy prime minister would be entirely in keeping with that.
I know it’s John Harris, but I found this interesting
Welcome to the first e-election
Spoof posters of David Cameron and Gordon Brown, irreverent blogs, amateur websites calling MPs to account
Will this election be dominated by the online pundits?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/17/labour-conservatives-general-election-online
137
Don’t forget this!
http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/24/652
A lot of this comes from the weakness of Brown and the rest of the minnows in the cabinet (the Johnsons and the Millibands). They’ve allowed themselves to drift without and vision since 2007, and allowed a much stronger pressure group to effectively take control of the labour party.
110 antifrank - I’m pretty sure they didn’t settle on February until near the end of the month.
133.
King Stuart! That has an even nicer ring to it.
Now, where is my serving wench?
http://www.scavengeinc.com/images/roma/plus-size-sexy-serving-wench-costume.jpg
136. antifrank - “What is wrong with any of those choices?”
OK antifrank. Just for a moment image a list of Italian cities of culture, or a list of French cities of culture.
And then, just lie back and think of… Norwich.
Nuff said.
125 The idea that pre-election purdah stops the youth crime figures from being published is risible - purdah only starts when the election is called. It is common for departments to stop making contentious announcements at this time as a sort of informal self-denying ordnance, although mostly only if they could be used against the government - for example, in the run up to the election that never was in 2007, a number of departmental staffing plans were put on hold because it would have resulted in potential job losses.
But routine, regular publications of stats should happen as normal.
137. “… thus the present Duke of Rothesay would become Charles IV.”
Indeed. I defer to your greater
antiquityseniority.(Note: I am familiar with Traquair’s liquid produce.)
[24] - At some stage all these fancy polling firms have got to start to interpret their headline figures into seat totals building-up from the regional result levels.
I don’t think that will be good enough. I thought that the lesson of the METTHs analysis was that it wasn’t the Midlands being different from the South, and the North, as much as it was the small towns [and their hinterlands] being different to the big cities and rural areas.
I would have thought that you would only get a benefit from polling subsamples and building up to a national figure if you choose the right subsets.
Perhaps a three-way split [City, Town, Rural] would be good enough, but it might be that you would actually have to go all the way down to a MOSAIC level of detail [apparently 11 broad groups and 61 detailed types] before you found any benefit.
Even with only 500 per subgroup that demands a large increase in sample size, and cost, at a time when newspaper budgets are under pressure. And you still have the problem of sampling uncertainty.
We also will only have the chance to judge whether an alternative approach is more accurate if it is introduced soon to be validated by the general election. Unfortunately this is unlikely to happen.
Norwich has the most medieval churchs of any city in western europe.
My first girlfriend came from Norwich as well. There all the culture you want
111..So Tim its Osbornes turn for your attention today..What have the bunker trolls told you to say,cant wait..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1258249/Company-boss-compares-troops-paedophiles-refusing-request-provide-jobs-soldiers.html
137. Jack W
Catherine Maxwell Stuart was also Labour’s candidate in Tweeddale, Ettrick & Lauderdale at the Scottish general election in May 2007. She ended up in 4th place:
LD 35.1% (+8.1)
SNP 33.2% (+8.3)
Con 18.4% (-2.8)
Lab (Catherine Maxwell Stuart) 13.2% (-8.4)
I doubt that we will be seeing her name on any more ballot papers anytime soon.
In a piece of poster positioning worthy of The Thick Of It,
HughDiane Abbott proves she’s a loon.http://grumpyoldtwat.blogspot.com/2010/03/diane-abbott-fail.html
Good article by Anthony Wells: In Defence of Polling
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2515
Mike, I really like the suggestion of an Irish PB post today, to celebrate St Patrick’s Day.
160 - That article insensed me when I first read it, words fail me or at least polite words of more than four letters do.
111..Tim.. have the bunker people told you to keep away from mentioning UNITE,THE TEAMSTERS and our ozzie union pals.. and of course the LABOUR party
Stuart Dickson, I suggest you visit Norwich. You’re making a fool of yourself.
144. Fernando - “The Norwegians insisted on a Danish prince rather than one from Sweden. Perhaps the Scots would chose one from Scandinavia rather than Britain.”
A great suggestion!
I nominate this one then:
http://www.gradering.org/cpics/Prinsesse_Madeleine.jpg
http://www.expressen.se/polopoly_fs/1.963247!slot100slotWide75ArticleFull/3447786819.jpg
http://www.metrobloggen.se/UserFiles/18.16449/Image/MadeleineELLEChildhood.jpg
154 - The whole point of a Capital of Culture is to support and develop the cultural life of various cities and to get things going outside the well known centres. You could have Florence as Capital of Culture (as you could have Bath, Cambridge or London) but what the hell would be the point? We all know these places are lovely and have a lot of cultural activities going on - they don’t need the additional support.
161 Stuart. I’ve no information that Lady Traquair has thrown in the towel for Labour.
Finding decent local candidates in hopeless seats is always a problem for parties. Perhaps she’ll fly the red flag again !!
154 nothing wrong with Norwich, has a better selection of Norman architecture and cobbled streets than 95% of the continent could boast.
167. “You’re making a fool of yourself.”
Err… I strongly suspect not.
If it smells anything like Arbroath, then Sheffield has it in the bag.
Take a point off Labour and give it to the Conservatives and you could easily see how this could end up at 40/30/20/10.
160.I couldn’t believe it when I read that article yesterday, and considering 30 soldiers have already made the ultimate sacrifice for their country this year alone, its beyond comprehension.
172 - Norwich is one of the most beautiful cities in Britain, standing comfortable comparison with Chester and York. I really do suggest you visit it. There is a world beyond Auchtermuchty, and if you haven’t explored it, I suggest you do.
172 When the kingdom of East Anglia regains it’s independence, we will remember the slurs of Dickson and declare him an enemy of the state.
170. Jack W - “Finding decent local candidates in hopeless seats is always a problem for parties. Perhaps she’ll fly the red flag again !!”
Perhaps Mark Senior would consider standing in Moray?
Flitting from the south coast to the north coast would likely do the lad the power of good. However, Teddy and the lavender smelling salts would have to guard the old fort back home in Sussex.
What was the old saying about Norwich, ‘A church for every week of the year, and a pub for every day of the year?’
175 Well said antifrank. Norwich is a jewel in a crud-stained nation.
Do different and don’t go over the Waveney without your jabs
This is just about the best Daily Mash I have ever seen
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/a-child%27s-guide-to-modern-britain-201003172568/
176 Disws
I’m quaking in my boots.
Never allowed to travel to East Anglia. What a punishment!
Is Essex considered to be in East Anglia? I used to date a girl from Essex. Ahhh… happy days…
178 indeed it was
Not forgetting the words of Lady Julian of Norwich
All shall be well, and all shall be well, and all manner of things shall be well.
176 - Reminds me of the classic Eastern Daily Press headline just before England played Denmark at the 2002 World Cup; “Danegeld - Time for Revenge.”
181 - There’s more culture in East Anglia than the whole of Scotland. I’m quite serious about that claim too.
181 parts of North Essex tentatively might be considered part of East Anglia. The kingdom of East Anglia was Norfolk, Suffolk and the Isle of Ely in essence, the modern description probably incorporates Cambridgeshire and the northern part of Essex (some would say all of Essex)
For me, Norfolk, Suffolk and a bit of Cambs is the nation state in waiting
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/a-child%27s-guide-to-modern-britain-201003172568/
Rather liked this.
Can I also add my name to the Norwich fan club?
Jack W, when are you planning to release the effluvia from your ARSE?
By the way, if you haven’t had it, Traquair House Jacobite Ale is an excellent strong dark ale, a “wee heavy” I think it’s called in Scotland, I had a pleasant overnight trip on the Glasgow Sleeper once, plenty of Jacobite Ale and Scotch whisky helped me to sleep, followed by a Glasgow fry up to counteract a rather unpleasant hangover I have to say.
186 - As did I, see 180
186 :’One, two buckle my shoe
Three, four, knock at the door
Five, seven is it? I’m sorry, I went to a state school that felt that arithmetic was not as important as teaching me about lesbians and socialism.’
Amusing
Coffee House Blog - For the workers?
“One of the defences that Labour types are mustering over Unite is, bascially, that it’s better to be funded by a body which represents some two million workers than by Ashcroft type figures who may have their own personal agendas.
In which case, the question is: do Charlie Whelan and his coterie really represent the views and interests of Unite’s members? And, in answer, it’s worth pulling out two snippets from today’s papers.
EXHIBIT A, courtesy of Danny Finkelstein:
“A Populus poll of Unite members last year showed the majority preferring David Cameron to Gordon Brown and opposing Unite donations to Labour.”
And EXHIBIT B, from Ben Brogan’s interview with George Osborne:
“Unite, [Osborne] reveals, is the one union that has refused to meet him as part of Conservative attempts to open a conversation with the trade union movement. ‘We have had various meetings and a dinner with the TUC and quite pointedly Unite did not turn up to any of them. I assume that’s deliberate.’”
I’ll let CoffeeHousers draw their own conclusions.”
Just getting interesting on the Five Live phone in regarding the BA strike. One caller said it had now become political and as a result it was now a battle between Labour and the Conservatives.
184 antifrank. Certainly true if ‘Essex Girls’ is the measure of East Anglian culture !!
189, yes, I noticed after posting you’d beaten me to it.
I thought you’d undergone a rebranding exercise, Mr. Burdett?
Norfolk also has more fingers per head of population than any other county AND more heads per finger of population too.
187: Don’t forget the Mustard as well. Also Norwich is one of only two football games i’ve been to. Norwich vs Nottingham Forest in the Championship in 2000. Nil-nil I think it was. (dragged along by my then girlfriends dad)
191 - No dissing Essex Girls.
My first girlfriend was a girl from Rayleigh.
192 - Yes buut just like British Airways found when they had the psychadelic tail fins its best not to deviate from a winning image.
188 John L. Sometime after lunch.
I am very familiar with ‘Jacobite Ale’
I suspect it is entirely possible those two statements are related.
Iain Martin at his WSJ blog - How Cameron Will Hit the Campaign Trail
Yeah, to the Essex girls lot - Essex not so much part of East Anglia.
193 This little piggy went to market, this little piggy stayed at home, this little piggy had roast beef, this little piggy had none, this little piggy went wee wee wee all the way home and this little piggy poked you in the eye for using that old chestnut.
195 My dear Scream most chaps first girlfiend was of Essex heritage !!
196, well, welcome back, Mr. Burdett.
I can reassure concerned fans that the brand of Morris Dancer will not be altered. I remain committed to facilitating provision of earth-to-space-to-sun political termination services, enhancing the Morris Dancer medieval siege warfare client base and expanding the global footprint of the patented Morris Dancer solar death ray politician melting service.
175. antifrank - “There is a world beyond Auchtermuchty, and if you haven’t explored it, I suggest you do.”
I’ve been to Siena, Florence, Prato, Pisa, Rome, San Gimignano, Paris, Amiens, Soissons, Laon, Chartres, Tours, Bilbao, Cairo, Budapest, Vienna, Salzburg, Munich, Amsterdam, Oslo, Stockholm, Armagh, Bath, Oxford, London and Auchtermuchty.
But I have never been to Norwich.
I strongly suspect that it will be staying that way.
201 I tried to rebrand but that mean Mr Smithson never released the posts under my new name (Dyed Woolie) so I just went back to my cumbersome name.
David Cameron heads to Peckham to show he is answering ‘big questions’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2010/mar/17/davidcameron-conservatives
@126:
Mr Dickson, under an independent Scotland, would a monarch have to be crowned twice? One monarch, two kingdoms.
203, if it’s any consolation, I quite like your name, Mr. Somewhere.
202 Stuart. It’s amazing where West Indian Holbien and a broad imagination will take you !!
184. antifrank - “There’s more culture in East Anglia than the whole of Scotland. I’m quite serious about that claim too.”
The lad really has flipped it now.
OK, I am clearly persona non grata today, so I’m offski. Toodle pip!
200 - Evidence, though not experience, suggests that for boys not into girls their first comes from Essex too.
Companion article by Cameron
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/17/black-britain-unemployment-conservatives
@202:
You’ve been to paradise, but you’ve never been to you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sn7d7gZj_qc
Norwich is quite pretty, if you like that sort of thing.
204.Keep up the good fight, I really like Dyed Woolie.
207 thank you, Mr. Dancer
I will raise the enormo-haddock tonight in your honour and slap it round the face of a socialist.
203 - Can you hear that noise, Stuart? It’s the sound of a million East Anglian’s not giving a toss.
210 - Rainhill, near St Helens, has that honour for me. I shall always think of him as the Rainhill trials.
210 - I thought it was from Brighton/Sussex
213 Christina, I shall engage with the forces of Smithson again and see if I cannot release the Woolie within
Good morning all.
205 – No mention of whether the Duchess of Peckham was there to greet the young pretender – I wonder if Cameron wore an anti stab vest.
UK unemployment in further fall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8571625.stm
@210/217:
Mine was from Essex. But since that’s where I grew up, that’s hardly surprising.
BASILDON BOYS REPRESENT.
214, hurrah. Nothing makes an enormo-haddock happier than thrashing a socialist. Except for thrashing a champagne socialist, obviously.
So, PMQs (assuming Brown isn’t busy attending the Lancastrian Conference of Sock Sniffing Deviants). Cameron must surely go heavily on Unite, Labour and BA. Will Speaker Frodo get down on all fours and bark obediently for the Government?
What else will come up?
Would not Alan Patridge want Norwich to succeed?
@223:
How could Norwich go wrong?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_8JLkwzpd0
87. it was london and ken. you not remember the london development agency getting trousered by Kens various cronies? Huge sums of moneys went missing via lee jasper. Under the guise of helping BME’s a lot of Kens friends got very rich.
The LDA is really the only pot of money that the mayor of london can play with, the GLA doesnt aware municipal contracts on the same scale as you would get in a city wide metropolitan council like Glasgow.
222 Brown will use the miniscule fall in unemoloyment to trumpet the mighty economic position he has got us to and Labour will bay and brag and forget how insulting that is to the 2.5 million unemployed, 687,000 long term unemployed, million or so young people out of work, those not on the list, and those that have been forced to accept shorter hours or not pay rises.
196 Not my sister I hope! I grew up in Rayleigh. Although an Essex Boy, my first was a girl from Leamington, in Gateshead of all places.
I booked a weekend break in Norwich only yesterday. How apt.
I look forward to seeing Norfolk’s historic capital.
You mock it far too readily, Mr Dickson. It has a fine collection of churches, was one of the largest cities in England for many years and had a long history of trading innovation.
If we dismissed one of the fine Scottish cities which has fallen like Norwich into relative pointlessness (Perth, say) I’m sure you would be unhappy.
********BETTING POST**********
O/T
After my phenomenal success yesterday
here are my Cheltenham tips for today. If anyone has any sense at all, after yesterday, they’d avoid these like the plague.
Good luck to all
1.30 Mobaasher
2.05 Finian’s Rainbow
2.40 Punchestowns
3.20 Twist Magic (e/w)
4.00 Silk Affair
4.40 Notus del la Tour
5.15 Shot from the Hip (nap)
Any fall in unemployment is to be cheered, party considerations aside.
227 - Depends, was your sister 21 in 1998?
226, undoubtedly, unemployment will rival Ashcroft as Brown’s answer to everything.
230, quite.
The FirstPost - The Mole - Could BA strike swing the election for Tories?
230 indeed, although a long term view is needed. Unemployment has effectively been flat for 3 months - the next few months are critical to whether we break 3 million or can get things moving in the right direction with intent.
127. Brian , you obviously cannot count or are not too bright, who voted for the majority of the Labour MP’s in Westminster. I will give you a clue it was people in England.
@220 - wibbler
ah but ..
The inactivity rate for the three months to January 2010 was 21.5 per cent. The rate has not been
higher since the three months to October 2004 and it is up 0.4 on the quarter. The number of
inactive people of working age increased by 149,000 over the quarter to reach a record high of
8.16 million. This increase in inactivity was largely driven by the number of students not in the
labour market which has increased by 98,000 on the quarter to reach 2.31 million, the highest
figure since comparable records began in 1993.
christina - why do you think UNITE has managed to reach so many agreements in this recession on short time working and pay cuts and BA is the exception.
Before answering that you may like to look at Willie Walsh’s time at Ar Lingus and Heathrow Terminal 5.
He’s a manager from the Graeme Sounness school of club wreckers.
226 - Yes but the economic inactivity figures are up, private sector employment is down, employment rate down, number of jobs in the economy down. 21.5% of the working age population is now economically inactive that is a veritable scandal.
139. Mad, We wait with anticipation , hopefully it is done in time for the 2011 elections. Not so sure Dave will want to break up the union though.
231 No she was 23. That’s that cleared up then.
237: Oh look, tim’s got his briefing for the day, going after Willie Walsh.
199. Really interesting piece there from Iain Martin. I made the point on here the other night that Cameron has honed his craft with Cameron Direct and now that ability to be able to meet the public, debate and argue with them, and even deal with hecklers, is going to pay dividends for Team Cameron in the next few weeks.
It’s one of the immutable laws of the universe that Geordie girls beat Essex girls any day of the week.
222. If the Speaker tells Cameron off for mentioning Unite, but allows Brown to mention Ashcroft, i could see the Speaker being physically dragged from his chair….
237. do the maths, compare BA pay for cabin crews with rates for the rivals, a 50% difference is a significant amount in terms of labour costs.
240 - Phew.
There’s nothing worse than be hunted by angry brothers.
237 tim, are you smearing another Willie today for your Unite masters?
‘Graeme Sounness’
Who? Is it a football reference?
240 Ok Tim…so its Willie Walsh..Who will be planting the friendly question at PMQ’s on that one.
243 - Balderdash.
@238 - xenon , exactly..
The employment rate for the three months to January 2010 was 72.2 per cent. The rate is down 0.3 on the quarter and it has not been lower since the three months to November 1996. The number of people in employment fell by 54,000 on the quarter to reach 28.86 million. The number of people in full-time employment fell by 54,000 on the quarter to reach 21.16 million but the number of people in part-time employment was unchanged at 7.70 million. There were 1.04 million employees and self-employed people working part-time because they could not find a fulltime job, up 20,000 on the quarter.
They can spin all they like, the unemployed, their families and friends know the truth.
A man goes into a bar and asks for a Souness?
What’s that? The Barman replied.
One half, then I’m off…..
246 - Is that experience talking?
252 - Yes it is.
238
Ah yes! but when the Tories are in, and unemployment figures are falling, will you be so picky about the figures? I don’t think so!
On the otherhand if unemployment is soaring,(a more likely turn of events? whose fault will that be? Why! the unemployed of course, ‘get on ‘yer bike’.
243
They tell me there are dvd’s etc dedicated to that sort of thing.
246 Not sure about that, I had to hide from an angry fiance at one point, the silly girl had written about it in her diary (and I never did find out if she wrote nice things about me).
244 A vote of No Confidence in the Chair/Speaker would be a suitable end to this Parliament. I wanted Sir Geo. Young to get the gig, but was quite hapy with Bercow, but I think he has been a disappointment. I know that no-one should ever be held responsible for the actions of their spouse, but in his highly sensitive position I think I would make an exception. Mrs B’s entry into the political arena is ill-timed, ill-conceived and wrong. It undermines the Speaker’s position and authority, and he is going to pay for it one way or another. I am sorry about that, but if it were to be done, then ’tis best it were done quickly.
Average total pay in the private sector remained stationary at £426 p/w, public sector rose by 3.8% to £461 p/w.
Therein lies some of our problem
238 - I’m not sure the economic inactivity rate on its own is very meaningful. About a third are housewives/husbands, a quarter students and ten percent early retirees. Indeed, the overall numbers have been fairly stable since the 1960s/70s (although the composition of the number has changed).
The long term sick numbers (about a quarter of the total) are something worth worrying about but that’s a somewhat separate issue.
329 - I’m also on Mobaasher in the first, though I have gone for Rite of Passage in the second. With you in the 2.40.
We’re gonna lose our shirts again
Though Peter’s ante-post winner in the first made it a positive day despite the overall carnage. I think if I were a bookie I’d quit after yesterday! It’s a punter’s day today (please). If Master Minded loses I’ll be ignoring the rest of the festival (as well as looking for tranquiliser darts behind a grassy gnoll).
255 - Oh, one brother came after me with his shotgun.
One fiance, took a hammer to my car.
In my experience, husbands take it much calmer and rationally.
256 - Like the reference to Shakespeare
250
Its standard New Labour target setting. Have a couple of targets and manipulate everything else to make sure you meet those targets.
It doesn’t matter that your targets don’t improve things on the ground, as long as there is a figure to trumpet, that’s fine.
Of course there are fewer people working and those who are working are part time / reduced pay will be doing bad things for our tax base and will eventually feed through into housing affordability etc.
At some point there will also be a large lump of students / trainees trying to get a job which won’t be good either.
260 - Husbands are probably fed up with the interminable nagging.
Photograoher with a grudge or sense of humour.
http://order-order.com/2010/03/17/diane-abbot-still-a-looon/
254 Should we be unfortunate enough to have a Conservative government , you can guarantee that the few Conservatives still posting on here will be proclaiming that unemployment of 4 million plus is a price worth paying so that Caneron and his mates can enjoy their IHT cuts .
The big question though is whether Rod C will use it in his analysis or not.
But god on the Indians for interpreting the poll correctly rather than the UNS Tories need 10% lead we get from our so-called expert journalists.
Question at PMQs looks likely to be “Will the Prime Minister stop Labour MPs and candidates from taking money from Unite until their strike action is called off?”
That’s the whisper going around, not that it’s a surprise!
241 slackbladder - I’ll think you’ll find it was to “Wash l’ol Willie”
in the Labour Logo Edit - A rose, smelly and covered in pricks
265 Funny that Mark Senior..I am not a pal of Camerons nor a millionaire but I want my children to have my worldly possessions when I go, not the government.
BBCLauraK
Anger at Speaker seems to grow - Tory backbencher tells the BBC he ‘has to go’ - but how much serious appetite is there to remove him?
270: Big day for Frodo then. Lots of eyes will be on him.
New thread
271 - I suspect that those who are demanding his removal are those that didn’t want his elevation in the first place.
270 - Absolutely ludicrous. Ten weeks out from a General Election and Tory backbenchers seemingly have nothing better to do than to have a childish spat with the Speaker. Idiots.
270. The Conservatives would be daft to try and unseat the Speaker this close to an election. However, after the election, assuming he gets past Farage and assuming the Tories have a big enough majority, all bets are off.
They have a decent excuse for saying Bercow needs to be challenged, i.e. that he is a throw back to the “rotton parliament” and the era where Labour thought they could do whatever they wanted to Parliament for partisan reasons, and after the election of a new Parliament the new broom needs to be swept through the Speakers chair as well.
Wouldn’t it be funny if Labour then had to endure a Speaker they hated like Frank Field?
269 I am not a millionaire either Mr Dodd and my children will have my worldly possessions and not the government . Unlike Cameron and his pals but as with the vast majority of the people in this country the Conservative IHT propsals will not effect me at all .
265 Mark
The issue here is long term unemployes,youth unemployment and incapacity benefit.
All those 3 are up by a huge amt over the last 4 years.
Unemployment isnt measured by one way anymore which has been yet another con trick of this government.
The Lib Dems are as bad as this Govt when it comes to transparency.
You all talk the talk but none of you walk the walk
265 - In London Boris hails falling crime figures that Chris Grayling claims are a fix. He uses them to justify cuts in policing numbers. We will see more of this when the Tories are in power.
277 - Can you remmeber how many thimes the Thatcher government changed the way in which unemployment was measured? And however they tried to fix it, the numbers still kept on rising.
The simple truth is that despite the worst recession for 60 years or whatever it is far fewer people have lost their jobs than they did in the Tory recession of the 80s and far fewer have lost their homes than they did in the Tory recession of the 90s. I would have thought everyone would be happy about that. But clearly not.
237.BA realise that there is now an imminent GE and that their negotiating hand is therefore much stronger than it was a few months ago. As one caller noted on the Five Live phone in today, its now very much a political fight as well as an industrial dispute. And more so than at any time in the last few years.
I noticed that Lord Mandelson was going to be getting more involved yesterday, the big surprise for me is that he has remained so quiet up until now considering the position he holds in government. And because the Conservatives have waded into the row by highlighting the strong links between Unite and Gordon Brown’s cabal, his government and the Labour party, its a very hot political issue which is becoming more dangerous for both the Union and the government by the day. Charlie Whelan has now become a figure of more prominence too as Political Director of Unite, though you would be forgiven for thinking that he was spending more time fulfilling that role in the Labour party these days.
BA will also have taken comfort from the PR disaster and lack of public support that Unite suffered in the run up to the Christmas period when strike action beckoned, and again, the government will be very aware of this too. Unite blinked first then, and Brown and his government dithered too long this week before getting publicly involved, no surprise that the strongest words of criticism aimed at Unite came from Lord Adonis first.
Unite obviously went away and regrouped before raising the stakes, and I see that they have now raised them further with their discussions with other Unions from abroad. But BA really see winning this fight as vital to the longer term viability and stability of their company in trying economic times. BA is fighting for its long term survival right now, Unite has two warring union dinosaurs and a new generation battling to take over control when they go.
I notice that Unite are trying to distance themselves more from this group of strikers, claiming they are more loosely tied to the Union and maintain a strongly independent streak. They will attempt to deflect the blame away from the various battles in their own Union by attacking Willie Walsh. And sitting right at the hub of this political war in Unite is one Charlie Whelan, and he is becoming a very powerful and shadowy figure indeed, as he also seeks to influence the governments GE campaign and who runs the Labour party now and after Brown goes.
It looks like Christmas time was the opening skirmish in a much bigger fight than some anticipated, or maybe yet again the government and the bosses at Unite underestimated the the other vested interests within the Unite, BA or the opposition benches of government?
237. Willie Walsh is indeed a toughie. But then Rod Eddington who was also considered an excellent CEO studiously avoided any confrontation with the Unions.
Willie Walsh is a brave man and one who sees that BA is not going to go anywhere with its current Union intractability.
BA is getting somewhere with its Iberia Merger and potential American Airlines merger to create a really strong airline; it can’t have all this scuppered by Unions who think getting double the wages AND doubel the perks of the competition is OK. I do feel sorry for the workers who are having their conditions reduced, but its that or BA goes under. They are still losing £1 million a day and the £2 billion ‘warchest’ that the media talks about should really be being spent on a re-fleet.
Failing to upgrade planes will mean falling behind the competition even more. Willie Walsh is sensibly fighting for BA as a company to survive, Unite seems to have the standard Union view that it is all some sort of conspiracy against the workers when it is nothing of the sort.
Of course, now battle is joined, Willie Walsh is playing hardball he has to right now, given the situation.
“…a well-deserved boot up the bahoochie.”
Bahoochie? Wasn’t that the guy who invented the overhead camshaft?
A Scot, if I remember correctly.
@270:
To remove him two weeks before the end of a Parliament would be slightly odd.
Where is the best URL to watch PMQ’s live today?
279 “The simple truth is that despite the worst recession for 60 years or whatever it is..”
Whatever it is? Attention to detail, eh?
In fact every Labour government in history – from 1924 to the present day – has left office with unemployment higher than when it came into office. Labour’s jobs delinquency over the past 40 years can be viewed at the website of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). You will see that unemployment more than doubled under the Labour govt of 1974-79.
When Thatcher left office in 1990 the UK’s unemployment was the lowest of any major European economy, standing at 5.9% (source ILO), while France’s was at 8.9%, Germany (Federal Republic) on 7%; Italy on 11% and Spain on 16.3%.
Unemployment rose strongly in almost all western economies throughout the 70s and most of the 80s, more than doubling under Labour from 1974-79 (I may have mentioned that earlier). Britain under Thatcher and the USA (Reagan) were the most successful major economies in tackling the problem and getting people back into real work.
In 1997 Britain had the second lowest unemployment of any EU nation.
Where are we now? Do you know? Do you care?
220/236 –unemployment figures.
236 is right that people saying on at school are not entering the unemployment figures. people are working part time too
But SKY had a pretty devastating interview with an analyst just now. In Feb we has 912 million hours worked. In January it was 908 million. I the public sector wages are rising at 3% in then private sector wages are falling 1%.
So in reality we have fewer in work working fewer hours and for less money. So there is falling spending power and falling demand. On top of this we have those who can paying off debt (this obviously excluded Brown and Darling who are busy adding to our debt).
This all points to sluggish demand and growth at best for the economy. The unemployment figures as aver repay a closer look than at the headlines.
The unemployment figure doesnot include the best part of 2.5 million unemployed on sickness benefit - it was about 500,000 back in the 80’s.
The Doctor Surgery was the initial solution to reported large scale unemployment. Now it is our Higher Education System too.
http://goderich.blogware.com/blog