Tories still 5 ahead in the daily poll
March 16th, 2010| YouGov Daily poll | Mar 16 | Mar 15 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 37% | 37% |
| LABOUR | 32% | 32% |
| LIB DEMS | 19% | 21% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 3.5% | 3.5% |
And the LD bounce starts to fade
So the only change tonight is a two point drop in the Lib Dem share - the Tory and Labour shares stay the same.
Not a lot else to say really.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
ho hum
Broken Sleazy Labour not recovering
DivCam + SamCam + MamCam = zero points
not too bad for Lib Dems then
Gosh
2nd?
Liam Byrne has been telling Porky pies shocker!!
In shock news the most psychopathic member of brown’s govt has been lying through his teeth bout taxes.
2
The Sun must be getting fed up with these polls. I know I am.
yellow peril on the slide
yawn….
did anyone get over to Colchester today to hear Matt Lebo?
Good poll for Labour - will steady the nerves after last nights iffy polls - movement is relevant. And this is showing non!
boring yougov and boring gabble on the slide.
Adjust for You Gov bias Lab -2 Lib +1 Con +1 gives 38,30,20
Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide!
Oh wow this is exciting. I’m glad I stayed up now.
UKPR
Labour largest party
Hung Parliament, Labour 33 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Margin of error - looks like GE will start at 40/30/20/10, give or take.
Margin of error - looks like GE will start at 40/30/20/10, give or take.
What a sensational poll
This must SURELY rock all the betting companies to their foundations.
Even parts of Labour don’t trust UNITE:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/16/secret-unite-plan-labour-safe-seats
As per my comment on the previous thread, the case is quite simple.
Taxpayers’ hard-earned cash —> Government —> Unite —> Labour Party
That has to be one of the most outrageous things to be highlighted in the dossier. A Government using a union to launder money to hand the the Labour Party.
Told you Mike has teasing us with his “suspense mounts”. But Tories will be disappointed with this - they seemed sure that yesterday’s news bulletins were going to move the lead up.
17
Typing in bold doesnt make it any truer.
Lib dems on the slide
9 hardly, they’re up on last week…on that point why should any party support go up 4 points in one day, like the Lib Dems did yesterday..it’s a nonsense…surely voters aren’t that fickle
Further to my revelation about Kirsty Gallacher, on the previous thread, i forgot to mention, my then girlfriend was with me, when I said it.
I wonder if RodCrosby has taken over YouGov?
If YouGov have changed their weighting, it will be fascinating to see which way…
Labour policies in total disarray tonight as ministers flip flop over what in and whats out. Is anyone in control at No 10 these days?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/mar/16/insurance-dogs-attack-tax-backtrack?CMP=AFCYAH
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7456968/U-turn-from-Labour-as-it-admits-taxes-may-go-up.html
23 - sometimes it takes 48 hours for the news to sink into and effect the nations views, Nick.
17. Yawn. Go back to ukpr with the rest of the labour spin machine
I’m shocked.
After all, Labours links to the Unions have been revealed.
Sorry, that was a century ago.
23
NPMP
To be disappointed with YouGov, you have to believe their new methodology is correct…
Broken sleazy slide
http://blog.seorevolution.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/70-worst-slide-ever.jpg
20 - anonymous
Errrrr…no not really. We’ve stopped paying attention to YouGov’s published polls and just read the unweighted numbers.
I’m leaving our prices where they are, feel free to bet.
What I’m interested in is that now the Conservatives are using Yougov privately they seem somewhat more confident. Do they know something we don’t?
This you gov daily polling loses you gov credibility as a research organisation.
Unless by some wierd quirk they are right and pretty much everyone else is wrong, its going to cost their business big time. Any panel research they provide in the future for any client will have huge question marks against it as soon as anyone sees the you gov sign off.
Are YouGov contacting the same people all the time?
“sometimes it takes 48 hours for the news to sink into and effect the nations views, Nick.
”
Longer than that.
not too bad for Lib Dems then…! wtf
So the daily YouGov has turned into the Daily yawn.
29, m - what (besides your ouija board) make you think they’ve done any such thing (now that is)?
It will be interesting what’ll happen if the Tories end up with 4% or 5% more votes than Labour but Gordon gets a majority…will it provoke a clammer for some change to the voting system
Well there’s a shock. The only thing is that we’re still at pin in a phonebook for Lib Dem share. No-one has a clue.
While YouGov remains the worst for the Tories at 5 points, they’ll be relatively happy.
And it keeps Labour supporters in their little dreamworld where they JUST MIGHT WIN.
SO everyone should sleep well tonight.
So YouGov continue to report lower leads than ICM. Hmmmm….
Anyway in other news I finally received a Labour Party electoral communication for the Local Elections. Apparently everything ever in the whole wide world is Boris’s fault. Just thought you would all like to know…
Smeary (Unite funded) Gobble - Links, spins and lies.
Did the earth move?
Did Roger capture the moment on camera?
Why are they so worried about showing a large Tory lead.
Labour will not get above 30, and 40-30-20 looks on.
I think OGH should declare a general embargo on the Yougov dailies until they come clean about their cockup and fix them.
You gov need to get better samples you cant just make 300 traditonal labour supporters represent 400 scientific significant people.
If its not a representive sample in the first place then you can not just times it by a number to make it representive. I guarantee you gov will be nowhere near the election result.
I’m shocked.
After all, Labours links to the Unions have been revealed.
Sorry, that was a century ago.
by tim March 16th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
No not the same. This time there is a ‘modernisation fund’ where taxpayers money is given to the Government that is paid to Unite as part of this fund which is then passed back to Labour as a donation
JOHN PRESCOTT FOR LEADER !!!!!!!
YEEHAA
Is it ok now to just choose the poll we like, are these designer polls?
Perhaps in the future we’ll all get our own polls.
‘Ooooh look my poll says that my party is ahead by 20%’
‘Well thats strange my poll says my party is ahead by 15%’
Another YouGov
Yet more ennui
All the data
within MOE
The Parliament hung?
With Kingmaker Clegg?
Not a chance in hell
Pull the other leg!
The punters cry
“A waste of money!”
But if they’re right
Wouldn’t that be funny.
The waiting’s too much
It’s all such a bore
Lets just have the vote
I can’t take it no more
Strange, if yougov is so unworthy of note, then why do true blue pbers think it’s so noteworthy?
Least interesting part of every day**, that is the YouGov daily poll.
** Fridays and Sundays mercifully free of this bulls**t
37 jsfl
now the Conservatives are using Yougov privately they seem somewhat more confident
I think it is a weight off their mind.
27 TSE in your bachelor days did you try and get the leg over your own reflection in the mirror? You seem to have exhausted every other opportunity. Don;t know how you ever had any time to practice law
On thread, YouGov really is becoming a joke. How can the LibDems be +4 one day and -2 the next. No doubt tomorrow they will be back up to 21. DAvid Roe’s employers could save tens of thousands and get a more relevant set of polling figures by signing up Jack W’s ARSE.
Alice Alice get me out of this place, I’m getting some really silly thoughts at 10pm every night!
42, ChristinaD - sleepy already? And it’s not even 4am your time!
23. I never thought the UNITE/BA stuff would have much polling impact at this stage. If the strike actually goes ahead then it will be damaging for Labour, especially if people end up having their holiday impacted, which is why I assume a deal will be done before long?
@23:
NPMP, as has been explained repeatedly, the Yougov dailies are broken, and the movements in the headline figures are driven by the weightings not underlying sentiment.
Therefore looking for any correlation with events will be a total crapshoot, because there aren’t any. The Yougov dailies may as well be plucked out of Peter Kellner’s arse, for all they’re telling us about voter sentiment.
56 SSI
Is there a rule that comments should be pertinent?
Another opinion poll - boring…….
The Meaning of Ed (Balls), Part 1
http://www.beatballs.co.uk/main/?p=58
Anyone got any idea what these polls are for, and why anyone is spending any money on them?
Looking at the data, I think there’s fairly conclusive evidence for the proposition that, at least until the election is called, a daily poll reveals absolutely nothing whatsoever.
It is impossible to attribute any movement to any particular event of the day (presumably because people aren’t paying that much attention, and so their decision might be based on half-recollected events of days, weeks or even months ago).
So she goes up while he goes down, down.
And round. And round. And round.
Its funny how the labour spin machine spins into action when yougov figures are published. Thanks to labour our corus plant closed up here on Teesside, they should be disgusted with themselves and I am no politician just an ordinary voter. Stockton South will fall to the Tories.
6. “Liam Byrne has been telling Porky pies shocker!!”
Oh dear.
Over at Guido’s, someone has posted a video of Zippy in foul mouthed out-take
http://order-order.com/2010/03/16/liam-gets-his-fingers-byrnt/#comment-491760
Well yet another 10 O’ Clock yawn. I wonder if News International have realised what a dumb idea this was and as for Yougov they are going to have to do a lot to get their credibility back. They are down there with Mori and Comres now and the first reaction for all their polls is to check to see if there is anything wrong with it. You can’t have confidence in that…..
So I’m going to do something more interesting toodle pip…..
@23:
As has been explained repeatedly, the Yougov dailies have their headline figures driven by their weightings, not underlying sentiment.
Looking for any correlation with events is a total crapshoot, because there are none.
59 - My long working hours were responsible for me looking for ahem, fun things to do in my few hours of personal time.
44 - It isn’t going to happen so there will not be a clamour for anything.
Kellner, Kellner, the one way pollster; what a load of balls.
@23:
As has been explained repeatedly, the Yougov dailies have their headline figures driven by their weightings, not underlying sentiment.
Looking for any correlation with events is a total waste of time, because there are none.
44 probably a military coup by the armed forces alarmed at the prospect of James Gordon Brown entering another couple of wars and sending them in to fight them with a couple of muskets and the odd pike.
59, Easterross - isn’t that a function of a) margin of error; and b) daily shifts.
Know that Yougov daily isn’t a tracking poll per se. BUT as long as the methodology remains constant (for the new edition) the trend line is worth watching, regardless of doubts (well-founded or less so) concerning the madness of their method (or visa versa).
I reckon whichever party adopts the same advertisng approach as “webuyanycar.com” will walk the election. My kids burst into song everytime it comes on the TV - even my 3 year old. Make that guy who dances on the ad prime minister
BA: Sad to see Unite seeking backing for strike from overseas
Responding to reports that Unite is seeking support from the US Teamsters union for the industrial action to be taken by British Airways cabin crew, BA said it was a “sad” sight.
The airline said in a statement: “It is sad to see Unite seeking backing from trade unions from overseas to support its unjustified strike against an iconic British brand.”
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6698/ba_sad_to_see_unite_seeking_backing_for_strike_from_overseas.html
Shame we don’t get a proper poll tonight. Still, there are nine pollsters, so won’t be long.
Ok more importantly, does anybody know how to fix a baxi boston 2 OF boiler?
Mike, would it be possible for you to add to your (new) standard poll reporting format the following for each survey:
>>> sample size
>>> survey dates
>>> survey method
>>> margin of error
So some good news stories tonight for Labour?
Omagh cover up by gordo Brown
Unite trying to involve Teamsters union in strike
Burying of bad news on youth crime
Brown trying to convince us that by halving Ddeficit to “only” 6% he is ahead of the game
Petrol prices rising
Unite / whelan / Labour funding etc
U turn on tax
U turn on dog tax
Thats enough for starters….
Oh, love this cartoon too
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
58. Brilliant.
63, SOL - gawd forbid, as mine are always impertinent!
81. Funny how Tim and Gabby haven’t got anything to say about any of those isn’t it?
O/T as I’m not a Labour MP claiming mortgage interest I can reveal that today I went into my building society and repaid the capital outstanding on my mortgage in cash.
best £2.51p I’ve spent.
and the sun was shining.
81. Floater
Here is some good news for team Brown. Not everybody thinks their high speed rail plan is totally crap…
MikeOBrienMP
Packed meeting at Coleshill Town hall about High Speed Rail. Vote divided between totally opposed and might support with some route changes.
69 - how can you say they have lost their credibility - there have been no election results yet!
80
pollsters (IIRC ) only have to provide that data withing 18 hrs?? according to BPC rules…
59 Martin Coxall
I think we should give YouGov a week or so to finalise testing of their new weightings. My guess is that we will start to see corrective adjustments towards the end of next week with final tweaking over the next six weeks.
New ventures are always difficult to get right first time. For example I went to a new blog today and found the body text reversed out of a dark background colour. I am not concerned as I expect it to be corrected in due course.
You gov is a first come first serve poll. The daily poll means they choose maybe ten thousand people then the people who answer there e mail first get to do the poll, so it does not represent there id so they weight an unrepresentive number of people for the uk.
79 - The first course of action is to hit it hard with a very large hammer.
81 Floater, that is known as being in government. Problems come and go, it was ever thus and will be again. Only in fairy stories do we live happily ever after with the king in his castle. Life is complex, people make mistakes, things are revised. We plough on regardless trying to do our best, as Gordon would say.
OT
what a surprise. All those claims by the Eurofanatics during the Irish Lisbon referendum that the EU wouldn’t try to interfer with tax issues turn out to have been lies. Who would have thought it?
http://www.accountancyage.com/accountancyage/news/2259482/ireland-enraged-eu-unveils-tax
GREAT POLL FOR LABOUR.
I think we have a really good chance of winning the Olypmics if we apply YouGov’s weighting to the medal table.
88, MTF - good point, but think that such info is often (or at least frequently) available sooner than that. At least could include what is known. Personally think it would enhance the (already significant) value of pb archived posts.
@75:
You’d have as much luck reading tea leaves or using a dowsing rod as trying to extract meaning from the car crash of the Yougov dailies.
92. Lil is that a polite way of saying Brown should have Hillary Benn locked in the tower and put on the rack over the Fido Must Die fiasco?
STOP !
Please will people stop getting hysterical re. These YouGov polls -
remember that all polls are just a” snapshot in time”
“la la
land time”!
Real figure as we have seen with ARS Opium and ICM
is an average of 40 / 28
Regardless of which pollsters figures you look at, you have got to assume they could be 100% correct. Only after the GE result can you say, with a fairly high degree of accuracy who was on the button, close or, miles off but, until then, you have got to treat each poll with the same degree of respect because no one knows if its right or wrong.
People don’t change from supporting a party one day and swing back the next as some erractic polls might suggest. The move from one party to another is relatively a sedate crawl, unless of course major events in the political arena take over.
YouGov comes in for a lot of criticsm but, they are pretty constant, dare I say reliable and have an excellent track record. That does not make them right though but, neither do their apparent ‘boringly’ consistent results make them wrong either.
Just a thought
Rant over
Oh dear, bunker brown won’t like the indy’s front page.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6694/front_pages_wednesday_17th_march.html
Paging tim. Interview with Ozzie…
He does not say outright that Mr Brown is a liar, but he leaves us in no doubt that we should not believe a word the Prime Minister says. He doesn’t. Labour is resorting to lies on the doorstep, of that he is certain. He lists a number of untruths in the brochures being sent to voters by Labour in key marginals: contrary to those claims, the Tories will not abolish tax credits or the pension credit or the winter fuel allowance (though some on the Right say they should).
The Tories are still facing questions about tax, however, and here honesty is a potential weakness. They say they cannot offer tax cuts unless they can afford them, and they will not know what they can afford until they have seen the books and devoted resources to the more pressing problem of reducing the deficit. Mr Osborne can only repeat what he hopes the public knows instinctively to be true: taxes have gone up relentlessly under Gordon Brown, and will continue to do so if he is returned. The Tories in contrast want to tackle “the bulk” of the deficit through spending cuts.
Tax cuts will come later, but they will come. With just days to go before a pre-election Budget that will shape the Tory manifesto, he will not be drawn on his plans but leaves a clear impression that before polling day he will have something to offer, probably a reduction in the job-destroying rise in national insurance contributions.
“Look, I’m a low tax Conservative, I came into politics partly because I want to be able to reduce taxes so that individuals have more of their money to spend, so that businesses have more of their money to create jobs, but I believe that lower taxes are sustainable when you get the public finances in order, so I will only make promises I can keep on taxation.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/georgeosborne/7459880/George-Osborne-interview-Fire-in-his-belly.html
To be fair I don’t think the YouGov “problem” is with the recorded Lib Dem rise and fall back. It is entirely possible that Spring Conference exposure reminds everyone who the Libs are, and that that memory fades after a day or so.
The YouGov problem lies with their political identifiers in Scotland and to a lesser extent in England. The Scottish ones result in an adjustment which gives a consistent overestimation of Labour by up to 10 points with the NATS suffering the most unfairness. It also puts the UK poll out by up to 2 points.
Down here there is also an issue which is less clear cut but on the balance of probability overstates Labour and understates both the others by around a point. It is these clumsy identifiers - not a Kellner conspiracy - which are producing the difference between YouGov and the balance of the rest of the polls.
75 SSI the problem is YouGov has refused to give us a proper explanation why it abandoned a perfectly acceptable weighting system 4 weeks ago.
The daily weightings by YouGov are ranging from 3% to 30% so we dont know whether a 5% Tory lead is really an 8% Tory lead or a 15% Tory lead. I have suggested several times that in addition to their preferred weighting system, all BPC members should be required to publish headline figures both using their own preferred weighting system and also a PBC one. That would enable us to compare all the PBC members polls on the same level playing field. At present it is like trying to compare the ICM apple with the Mori orange, AR pear, Harris peach, Populus passion fruit and the YouGov rhubarb. If they were all apples, it wouldnt matter whether ICM was a Cox’s Pippin and YouGov a Granny Smith.
22…nsb..I am surprised you can’t see the difference. It’s not LORD Unite and they are not non-doms; so that means it’s OK.
98 - Opium? What have you been smoking and inhaling?
Surely you mean Opinium
93 - The Dana Rosemary Scallon quoted isn’t THE Dana is it?
OT, but Tee Hee (especially as I backed Inter at 5/1 )
glenoglaza
Apparently that was the first time Chelsea have failed to score at Stamford Bridge this season! Mirinho will be insufferably smug
I think daily polls by internet avoid true representation. Only certain groups will look at e mails everyday this means it will always be representative.
67 - so because Redcar has been mothballed Stockton South will fall to the Tories?
Whats their policy then - to nationalise it?
98 - Wayne, err, the YouGov poll has elicited nothing but yawns.
Now go and lie down, drink some tea..!
96 I disagree. Burning a badger’s entrails in the moonlight whilst humming the theme tune from Glee would be my bet.
Wayne.
We are not hysterical.
We couldn’t be less so. We are being ‘can’t be ar5ed amusing’.
Theresa Villiers MP, Shadow Secretary of State for …
BBC News
Ms Villiers said Unite’s meeting with US transport union the Teamsters risks disrupting British Airways flights internationally.
She said: “I’ve received information from various sources saying the point of these meetings is to prevent BA flights landing. This is damaging for BA, for passengers and for workers that Unite is supposed to be helping.”
She added that a number of European trade unions were also prepared to “offer assistance”.
“I find it of grave concern that the Labour party is being funded by a union which is disrupting the holidays of thousands of people,” she said.
98. And Jack W tomorrow.
I have a sneak preview - Speaker HOLD Bucks
103, er - While I think your strictures against new yougov go too far, your idea of having pollsters give alternative versions does appeal.
BTW, Granny Smith (and her apples, in every sense of the term!) were West Virginians. Which makes your arguement even more persuasive!
So America goes against Israel, weeks after refusing to back Britain over the Falklands.
Not wise from the administration.
112 - Isn’t that an attempt to get round sympathy strike laws?
113, Hehe, Bercow may well hold his seat only to skip down to Westminster to find 350 members of the PCP constructing a gibbet and sharpening axes.
You have to smile, don’t you? What did that Lord who gave the Tories 5% of their total donations do for the British people? He founded Crimestoppers, preserved a huge Victoria Cross collection for the nation, raised money for injured troops and will leave a billion pounds to good causes when he dies.
What did that union that gave Labour 40% of its donations do for the British people? They f**ked up Easter and murdered the national airline.
117 - If that fails is he on the Morris Dancer List?
OT MD
Have you got the new Formula1 mobile app?
118 - Well said Mr Raven - I’m sure toenails will be saying something similar on his blog. Maybe.
115 - you wait. Obama will soon be explaining to the press how scary it was when that really big bee came in the window that one time.
109 Ian Bailey
You can mock all you like but where is Labour’s manufacturing legacy? In 20 years time there will be no articles like this BBC one praising Brown.
“What was Margaret Thatcher’s greatest success as prime minister?
Nissan factory, Sunderland
The Nissan factory opened 23 years ago and is still going strong
here is one which is not often discussed: attracting the Japanese motor giant Nissan to build cars in Sunderland.
The effort Mrs Thatcher and her government put in has paid off handsomely.
Nissan’s arrival, in 1986, kick-started a wave of foreign investment - from Japan and elsewhere. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8253169.stm
Well never mind the General election is not at all important. The real battle is in September, the Papal State Visit, mostly to Scotland.
In the left foot corner we have Jim Murphy, presently Secretary of State for Scotland, in 7 weeks time His Holinesses Chief Cheerleader on the dole.
In the other left foot corner we have David Kerr, the Ruth Kelly like former SNP Glasgow NE candidate, member of Opus Dei who has withdrawn as a PPC to become an employee of the Roman Catholic Church doing something terribly important for the Papal visit.
So we are squaring up to the mother of all battles between the big hitters or should that be left footers of Scottish politics, seeking a great opportunity to obtain influence with the Holy Father/Bishop of Rome (depending on one’s personal views of the Roman Catholic Church)once the minor matter of the General Election is past. I just hope the Pope isn’t intending to use a plane supplied by BA. Don’t know how he would get on with an AWS and no doubt Hattie would denounce his visit given the sexist, glass ceiling which applies to female candidates for the top job.
120, no, however, I do not have a mobile telephone either.
119, “John Bercow and Lefty Wife [double-shotted]“
I seem to remeber the oracle [ self- proclaimed variety] saying what a silly call we had made on this.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7064424.ece
Never mind tim. Nearly clever.
Another dire poll for the Tories. Ozzy out.
113 and in my crystal ball the mists are clearing and I see an Ancient Scot is proclaiming the Yellow Peril win Watford….
115, c_g - think you’re 180 off all around:
1. America is NOT “going against Israel” but opposing the self-defeating errors of the current Israeli goverment, which is not exactly winning kudos back home on this score.
2. As for “refusing to back Britain” as I said to over-excited PBers when it happened, take soothing words from Foggy Bottom to over-exited Buenos Aireans with a grain of salt . . . or rather a train-car load of road salt.
3. Not wise in what way? Note that strong majority of Jewish Americans agree with Joe Biden on this one. As for Falklands, do you really think that ANYONE at the State Dept or Foreign Office is staying awake at nights worrying about such a picayunne issue. I mean, it’s NOT what you’d call likely that BA is going to launch another invasion, or that UK (whomever is runnning the place) is going to be as asleep at the wheel as the Thatcher govt was before the Falklands War.
123. We have a wave of foriegn investment now.
Only its a hand gesture.
128 Ted indeed and Vince Cable to become PM in the new Lib-Lab Government of National Disunity.
I simply cannot grasp the alternative economics, however hard I try:
We are all capable of economic activity – especially the 2.5 million people unemployed. All we need is a little something to get economic activity started.
And, hey presto, it’s to hand. It is something quite magical. It’s called credit, and it takes the form of bank money. Bank money is something that you and I deal with every day – but it’s intangible. We never touch it or see it (except perhaps on our bank statement at the end of the month.) But it is wonderfully powerful, which is why it must be rigorously regulated in the interests of society and industry.
It exists, or can be issued into existence (think QE) out of thin air. For, contrary to most orthodoxy, credit creates economic activity. Credit, believe it or not, creates savings. Credit creates deposits. And not the other way around.
Get your head around that if you can. Most economists can’t.
Extract from LabourList article: “Why the EU’s leaked document on spending cuts has got me in a rage” by Ann Pettifor
http://www.labourlist.org/eu-leaked-document-rage-ann-pettifor
The sun question of the day:
‘The European Union, some business leaders and economists have called for the Government to make early spending cuts to avoid an economic crisis. Which of the following best reflects your view?’
The Government should cut spending sooner rather than later - 42%
The Government should not cut spending too soon - 34%
Neither - 5%
Don’t know - 18%
Is this the first poll to show immediate cuts higher than delayed cuts? icm had 48% delay, 46% now. If so the tories might be about to start winning the debt argument. Maybe the EU has finally helped the tories! If they win that then theyll win the GE by a landslide.
When do we get the next real opinion poll? Thursday evening or do we have to wait until Saturday?
132. ‘too soon’ is a loaded question anyway.
The BBC’s 1987 election night programme is now available on my YouTube channel:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTPxE8oC0bI&
There are 36 parts, each about 11 minutes long (because YouTube doesn’t allow uploads longer than this).
This features the coverage from 10pm to just after 4am. I’ll upload the next-day coverage sometime.
I’d love to get hold of ITV’s 1992 election show. If anyone has a copy I’d be interested to hear from you. Thanks in advance.
I just had a horrible thought today. I do all my shopping in York in the Co-op, because it’s closest to my house.
I think I’m helping fund Ed Balls’ re-election campaign.
Self-flagellation might be the only avenue open to me now.
Ragging on wives/significant others of politicos is ALWAYS a losing proposition, leastways from an electoral perspective. Because it loses the raggers more votes than it wins.
For example: Rachel Jackson, Mary Todd Lincoln, Eleanor Roosevelt, Evita Peron, Hillary Clinton. Even think this applies to Nancy Reagan and Cherie Blair.
Perhaps the only documented cases to the contrary (and neither in an electoral context): Marie Antoinette and the Dutchess of Windsor
139 - the entire 1992 broadcast used to be on there. I finished watching it about 2 months ago…
135 - That is 150% insane.
140. Shame on you.
You could leaflet for Mr Sturdy by way of contrition.
Xenon…
Yes, that is THE Dana, Eurovision song contest winner for Ireland, subsequently Irish MEP (I think..correct me please). I remebered her when she was running a fabulous hotel in Newry with her husband.
Nice girl!!
139 - You are doing an immense service to political geekkind.
140 - Look on the brightside.
He needs to be re-elected as an MP, so he can become Leader of the Opposition.
Just think of the damage to the Labour party if Ed Balls becomes Leader of the Opposition.
In retrospect they will refer to the Gordon Brown years, as the Golden (Brown) Years
Anyone got any tips for tomorrow’s Cheltenham card?
Not to stick my neck out but I’m on Master Minded
141: “The Dutchess” was American, not a sibilant from Holland.
144. It’s that or take up shoplifting.
146 I agree with that. Shame on me. It’s like wishing an illness on someone. But I do.
135. But credit is not an aim in itself, it is a means to get a return. A bank gives you credit, and charges an interest level it feels sufficient to give it a return with a competitive environment. Businesses use credit to enable them to make a return.
Using credit to fund revenue expenditure is the path to ruin, whether that is in government, commerce or the household.
It can only work in a sustained boom, but like all ponzi scheme it is doomed to failure when the music stops.
I’ll give you the number of his office. N
149
How devoted to the cause are you?
It could be a good way fo highlighting the benevolance of Mr Ashcroft!
139. i think that at some point that night Dimbleby had to eat a whole Mars Bar in one go, as there was a sudden return to the studio, it was not a pretty sight.
132 SSI “Note that strong majority of Jewish Americans agree with Joe Biden on this one. ”
Pardon me for asking, but what has Joe been saying about this?
109. Yes that’s the same Dana, Rosemary Scallan is her married name. She was an MEP for one term I think.
Tee hee! An exasperated Paxo on Newsnight has to step in to stop the Vince Cable love-in between David Steel and some other bloke.
127, er - very interesting! BUT how sure are we (and most esp. Shadsy & Co) that Pope B is still going to be The Man in White in six month’s time? As right now he looking more less like the heir of St Peter and more like the embodiment of the Peter Principle.
150 - I think the term that would apply is Schadenfreude
143. Well, it might have been plausible a few years ago, the naysayers would have been pointed to the uninterrupted growth in the economy, the increase in personal wealth etc etc etc. But to advocate such a policy now, after the credit collapse is, well sheer lunacy.
Its not so much as shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, but putting some more horses in the stable, and removing the door completely.
About three minutes of reading up on her tells you all you need to know.
151 - It doesn’t “work” in a sustained boom its just people forget how idiotic it is.
109 mothballed? dont you mean shut down for ever for good. I pass it everyday! (I still have a job) cant believe its gone, Teesside was built on steel but no more and its very sad, we have so much history up here thanks to steel, Also what about the thousands of families up here who will suffer due to the knock on effect? and whats labour done? NOTHING!! it will cost millions to re-start it as you well know and dont tell us more lies, and yes Stockton South is 123 on the Tory hit list, its the best hope we have in the ne of getting rid of you lot. Sorry to rattle but labour has failed.
156: Did Dana have a party allegiance, or was it “All kinds of everything”?
154 - Just been rewatching a bit of it, the exit poll was seriously crap starting out predicting a majority of 26. Oh dear.
Terry Smith of Tullet Prebon comes out in favour of Vince Cable on Newsnight!! (But only just - said he was the best of a bad bunch, but the most honest.) To put that in context, it’s a bit like a killer shark deciding that it is rather partial to muesli. I expected to see Lord Steel ripped to shreds like a frog in a blender, but he came out unscathed. The Emergency Services and local hospital can be stood down.
147. Lucian
Nothing for tomorrow (yet) but I do have this from a usually reliable source
“Tell Massini in the A Bartlett on Friday”
160 - Oh she is involved with that dodgy think tank that advocated that everyone should work for about 2 hours a year and spend the rest of the time thinking about fluffy clouds and baby lambs and the world will tick along fine.
139. I think I’ve got 1992 ITV on VHS somewhere…
Sad git
165 - The massive overinflation of Vince Cable’s reputation is one of the marvels of our age.
155, Disraeli
Check out this op-ed, by Thomas Friedman: “Driving Drunk in Jerusalem” who says JB should have said even more (or rather less)
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/opinion/14friedman.html
142/The Raven - “there” is my YouTube channel of course! Hope you enjoyed 1992.
It is a bit of a job putting them on because you have to spend ages dividing them up into small segments, and then uploading takes a long time when you don’t have a very fast connection.
I’m thinking about uploading the 1983 election next.
169. What surprises me is how little his time at Shell gets brought up, when you consider what they were up to in Nigeria at the time.
If he was a Tory…
163, idau - if I remember rightly she ran as an Independent (also for President) as Christian/Catholic conservative; she’d spent previous decade or so in Alabama hanging out with crazed Catholics and their (now) evengelical allies.
160 notme, hadn’t thought to google the lady. I see she was active in the Jubilee Campaign and now I’m even more puzzled.
Credit is another word for debt. If credit is such a positive thing, why go to all that effort to relieve poor countries of their indebtedness?
But I have no claim to an IQ anything above average.
168 - Rod: if there’s any way I can persuade you to lend me a copy of that tape I’d be very grateful!
Frank Field: ‘If the Tories want to talk to me about a job, I will be happy to’
http://www.wirralglobe.co.uk/news/5064018.Frank_Field___If_the_Tories_want_to_talk_to_me_about_a_job__I_will_be_happy_to_/#
171 - That would be a good one. I wish they would release them on DVD but it probably isn’t commercially viable. In the absence of that I hail your magnificent efforts.
FYI, just received my official form (D-1) in the mail for US Census 2010.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Wednesdays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-For-March-17-2010/Media-Gallery/201003315575109?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15575109_Wednesdays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_For_March%2C_17_2010
mixed headline in t’grauniad = team Brown won’t like the lead on NHS.
Sun on UNITE…
132.Whether America is going against Israel or not come the mid-terms will not matter. The impression that has been left is of Obama going to Cairo, Israelies left in the lurch.
2.Your point on the Falklands would be more soothing if there was an adminisration in Washington that one felt had the best interests of Americas traditional allies at heart.
3.Democrats traditionally do well with the Jewish vote, it’s just another group that might start to question Mr Obama’s priorites.
“No-one in the State Dept is staying awake worrying about ‘picayunne’ Falklands. It’s not likely BA is about to launch another invasion”
I think you’ll find that’s exactly what the CIA advised over chances of a Russian invasion of Afghanistan, there are countless other examples. If the Falklands are such a picauyune issue to you, why post about them? Most Brits would happily expend blood and treasure to ensure that they remain British.
175 - I have the 1992 election results but done by Sky News somewhere but the sound quality is not too good but it is watchable.
170 SSI. Thanks!
I’ve got to say that I’m with Thomas Friedman on this one.
Easterross @106: “the problem is YouGov has refused to give us a proper explanation why it abandoned a perfectly acceptable weighting system 4 weeks ago”
What haven’t they explained? To recap, what (from memory):
1) They used to get a sample in line with their party ID targets by inviting people to participate with the party IDs they thought matched the population. They still do that, but now when people with one party ID disproportionately fail to respond in time so their sample is light on a particular party ID, they make up for that with weighting. Doing it that way helps them get enough results over a shorter time-frame.
2) Within their Labour-identifying sample, they found that two groups - people who voted Labour in 2005 and people who didn’t - are moving in quite different ways. That means that if one day they happen to sample a lot of 2005-voting Labour identifiers and only a few 2005-defecting Labour identifiers, it will look like there’s been a big change in the voting position, when really they just happened to talk to a lot of one kind of voter or the other. To address that they make sure they’ve got a balance of the two groups within their Labour-identifying sample, or weight for it if they don’t.
jslf is also saying that maybe their original party ID targets are wrong, but if he’s right, that dates back from way beyond 4 weeks ago.
re 23 Nick P the Tory lead might have gone up. We won’t know until we see the tables to see how much You Gov have fiddled this one.
Lord Mandelson led a new Labour fightback last night against the influence of Britain’s biggest trade union over the coming election campaign — and the future direction of the party.
The spark that ignited warfare yesterday was over a relatively minor matter: finding a candidate to replace James Purnell, the former Cabinet minister who is leaving Parliament.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7064751.ece
Seth O. Logue
Thanks for your response on last night’s late thread. Tories in Scotland are not famed for anticipating how they might improve performance. They are much happier reacting to change rather than anticipating it.
180, chris whatever - thanks (not) for misquoting me. Doesn’t add to your persuasiveness!
166 - Noted.
HAPPY ST PATRICK’S DAY!
187.Your welcome, but I honestly wasn’t trying to persuade you, you are a lost cause.
189 - Surely you have to wait a few hours?
PUT THE GUINNESS DOWN!
Bad man. Wait your turn.
Slainte to those celebrating.
186 - well oldnat, the Tories in Angus have complained to the Electoral Commission that the SNP are putting out too many leaflets and where did they get the money for them? Very bizarre complaint, they could get rid of their paid agent that should pay for a few leaflets. We don’t need paid agents when they have us ‘golden oldies’ working for nothing.
Milgram proved right once again:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100316/tsc-oukoe-uk-france-television-011ccfa.html
17 Feel free to take my £20 at 8 on Brown/minority in the PM/Government double market. Gabble on…..
(on betfair)
191, LF - was thinking of those in Holy Paddy’s homeland. AND also in Ireland!
Am quaffing rootbeer at the moment. And sad to report, the standard US tipple for March 17 is NOT Guinness or anything close, but rather green-colored Bud or Pabst or similar horsepissssss. Would make St. Patrick take up snakefarming!
Finally, note that here in the USA, St Patrick’s is the day when EVERYBODY is Irish. When I was a kid, the big thing wasn’t the boozing, it was making sure you wore something green. Otherwise you risked getting pinched by other kids; that was the traditional penalty.
Shell to divest 15% of its refining capacity
Royal Dutch Shell PLC forecast its production will climb 11% during 2009-12, saying it plans to cut costs by divesting 15% of its refining capacity and 35% of its retail markets.
The supermajor expects production will reach 3.5 million boe/d in 2012 compared with 3.15 million boe/d in 2009. Outlining the company’s strategy from London on Mar. 16, Shell executives did not specify which downstream assets might be sold or when.
Near-term pressures on downstream and gas margins remain,” Voser said. “However, the medium-term upstream fundamentals are robust. We expect oil to trade typically in a $50-90[/bbl] range, and to trend to the upside.”
http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/2831352289/articles/oil-gas-journal/general-interest-2/companies/2010/03/shell-to_divest_15/QP129867/cmpid=EnlDailyMarch162010.html
here’s a unioin reform cam could bring in: limit the number of people it can represent i.e smaller union groups. Its time UNITE was brought back down to size and split into smaller groups. Its time these super unions remembered whose running the country, elected representatives not unrepresentative dinosaurs.
Interesting article regarding Labour selections:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/16/secret-unite-plan-labour-safe-seats
193. I wager the whole thing will be fabricated, largely like the original experiment was in the sixties.
Good news from Worcester for election night, (which came out 12 days ago but I’ve only just found out):
http://www.worcester.gov.uk/index.php?id=338&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=981
196 - Green Bud. MMMM
Poor you.
198. The perfect way to break the unions and their politican funding to Labour, is reform of the political levy. I know it sounds boring and procedural…
Take the power away from the union to give donations to political parties, give it to the union member. When the union signs a member up, he is giving a unique login to a government website. On that website, he marks whether or not he wishes to contribute to a political levy, and if so, he has the choice of any registered political party, which he chooses, in confidence. The political contribution will be deposited to his chosen party on an annual basis.
This has multiple benefits. It removes the Union bosses from having financial power over the Labour Party, and it means that other parties will get a slice of the pie… the regular members of a union are far less politically homogeneous then those who take an active part.
i read the whelan/unite dossier, very worrying.
just a thought, that may make some sense to me with whats going on, (especially the bit about postal votes in dossier)
yougov polls? = hung parliment = postal voting = labour gov
unite/unions are going strong for postal votes, so how safe will those postal votes be?
they have members with ‘key’ responsibilities for GE process; postmen/women, care of vunerable people, councillors (how safe will the boxes be, next day counting?) and a majority of members that trust/believe (i believe foolishly) that the unions are there to help them.
how safe will the election be?
Who can you trust?
labour, gordon brown, whelan, msm, the people who think lying and bullying are assets, the, UK can go to pot as long as i’m alright jack (no foresight) etc.
worrying very worrying
another thought, how many at bbc/msm are members of unions?
23. I am disappointed to see no change. On reflection we should hope that Unite is a slow burner which detonates on about budget day.
I cannot decide if Youguv dailies are more annoying when they change, or when they don’t. Either way I think they are up there with the introduction of New Coke as marketing own goals.
190, c - BUT do you wish to persuade others? If so, note that deliberate misquotation ain’t the way to do it.
The Highland region has decided to count votes on election night, which covers Inverness, Ross, and Caithness, obviously 3 of the biggest seats in the UK:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8568466.stm
Milton Keynes, Reading and Northampton are still intending to do a Friday count.
How on earth is this a boring poll!?, it very much quashes any mention of Tory recovery, the idea of a “Sam Cam” supposed effect, the stuff with unite, and the recent David Cameron output.
A bit of fairness and balance in your reporting would be much obliged, thanks.
@97SallyC
vu vust nvat qvestion the Tory party.
YouGOv bad, all others good.
208. Well, I think we can say empirically that most people are bored with it.
There is a lot of uncertainty (genuinely, not just as an answer to this poll) how quickly news feeds through to polls. And Unite certainly has the potential to have legs. Very powerful, pictures of resigned looking punters sitting on their suitcases.
The number of seats counting on the night has hit 450 according to my figures = 69.2%.
Some of the largest and most rural seats are counting on the night, such as:
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Penrith & the Border
Torridge & West Devon
Bridgwater & West Somerset
Brecon & Radnor
Montgomeryshire
North Norfolk
Ludlow
North Shropshire
Ribble Valley
Fermanagh & South Tyrone
Some seats not counting on the night:
Milton Keynes North / South
Reading East / West
Northampton North / South
Norwich North
Stoke Central / North / South
Oxford West
The cost of petrol will probably have more impact on how people vote than any amount of petty point scoring during the 3 week GE campaign.
A price of >120p+ per litre isn’t looking good for Brown, indeed it will probably be more by 6 May with the collapse of Sterling being the main driver. I topped up at 117p/litre at Tesco in New Malden this evening and there’s a 4p tax increase due from 1 April. Oh Dear, 121p/litre = £5.50 per old-fashioned imperial gallon.
Of course, this none of this will worry Brown, firstly because he doesn’t drive and secondly because he’ll probably be off to Cape Cod shortly to write his memoirs.
Speaking of polls, what the UK needs is a good ice cream poll. Do they still do that kind of thing over there?
Also, is there a Brit equivalent of the US “Weekly Reader” poll of elementary & middle school kids? Which has a fine record for accuracy: in 14 times since 1952, has only been wrong once, in 1992 when they left Ross Perot off the ballot, thus skewing the results!
211. Do you know if Kingswood is counting on the night, or not?
211/AndrewG:
Yes it is:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/83585/UKPGE-count-timing-data-2010-03-15.pdf
215. Excellent, cheers mate.
112, PfP - can remember thinking much the same thing in leadup to 2004 presidential election. Turned out NOT to be the case.
Of course gas prices were (and still are) substantially lower in US than UK. BUT we are more auto dependent; in most places public transportation is either a joke or nonexistant. For example, outside Boston-DC corridor and a very few other locales, passenger rail isn’t for commuters, it’s for tourists. And the price increases were (I think) higher in percent terms than what you’re talking about.
Bottom line: in 2004 in the United States, gas price increases were NOT a positive for incumbents. BUT neither were they the kiss of death.
BTW, wasn’t there a somewhat similar situation in UK in leadup to 2001 general election?
217 - The fuel protests were almost a year prior to the 2001 general election. The temporary boost to the opposition had gone by the end of 2000.
Totally off topic, but this is so cute.
Daily Mail - Pictured: The cute dormouse blissfully unaware he was saved from the jaws of death
The message seems to be: whatever happens, don’t blame China:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8571347.stm
217 SSI - in some respects you’re right and indeed there was considerable concern about fuel prices before the last GE, but in that instance it was a number of months before the GE. This time it’s a live hot potato and will be seen as having been self inflicted, i.e as a result of ever higher taxes, coupled with a rapid decline in the fall of Sterling and we are talking rapid here - by the time the tax increase takes effect on 1 April, petrol will have increased by approx 10% over just a few weeks, that’s another £5 to fill our small 50 litre tanks, that hurts…. just wait for the yelps of pain.
Goodnight everyone and extra special good wishes to SSI on this St. Patrick’s Day - I realise he has to wait a few more hours yet before cracking open the Black Stuff to be sure, to be sure.
I found a bit more detail about AKMP:
“The 53-year-old died as a result of what is called ischaemic heart disease, a clogging of the main arteries of the body.”
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/5064187.MP_died_of_natural_causes__post_mortem_reveals/
Thank PfP! And speaking of celebrating (?) St Patrick’s Day, check out this from Irish Times
http://www.independent.ie/lifestyle/st-patricks-day/women-and-media-banned-from-adamss-us-speech-2099248.html
Appears social justice and equality mean less to GA than currying favor with obvious neatherthals and potential funders!\
On a much more serious note, the other night some were debating the merits & demerits of Sir Patrick Cormack. Well, could it be that THIS will turn out to be his finest hour?
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/families-anger-over-censored-omagh-inquiry-2100998.html
124, sorry, Irish INDEPENDENT - the paper for Castle Catholics, as opposed to the IT, organ of West Britons!
219, CD - thanks for sharing, what great pix and wonderful story.
BTW, am sure that YOU will not be forgetting “The Wearin’ of the Green”!
226.SSI, happy St Patrick’s day.
Just popped in briefly to catch up, two of my children not well tonight. Nite all.
146 Screaming Eagle
The Tory party has been lead at various times by Neville Chamberlain, Anthony Eden, Alec Douglas Home, William Hague, Ian Duncan Smith and Michael Howard; so if I were you, I’d err on the side of silence.
Nite all.