Why aren’t the polls convincing punters?
March 15th, 2010What will it take to make NOM the favourite?
The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather than the £175 of last Monday.
So there has been a tightening but not by very much.
On the Betfair overall majority market the NOM of a week ago of 1.9/1 has shifted to just 1.82/1 - again not very much movement and with the betting exchange you have to factor in the 5% commission as well.
Yet this has been a period when 13 of the last 14 opinion polls have reported figures that the straight UNS seat calculations suggest would produce such an outcome.
Punters are simply not believing a combination of the media narrative/the polls/the UNS seat calculators
My reading is that the markets will start to take this seriously when ICM has consecutive surveys with the lead at six points or below. As it is yesterday’s poll from the firm had this at 7% after the spiral of silence adjustment had trimmed it from 39-30.
The only polls coming in at under seven have been from YouGov or YouGov/BPIX.
Mike Smithson
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First?!
The most remarkable thing in all this for me is the electorate’s refusal to accept that cuts on a truly massive scale and for many years to come are desparately required to avoid economic catastrophe, no ifs or buts about it. No pain, no gain.
I think the primary reason for the prices on NOM and a CON Overall refusing to budge is pb.com itself.
It is only the Holy Trinity of the father,the son and the holy ghost holding the dam.
My view is not straightforward. In the long term I think that the Conservatives will get an Overall Majority, but in the short and mid-terms, then NOM has to be your boy.
I am equally Green on both outcomes and very Red on a LAB Overall.
Nobody believes the polls on here unless they are good for the Tories or bad for Labour. Nobody takes the silly old UNS seriously.Only ICM seem to carry any weight.
Lovely piece by Simon Hoggart on the Trevor Mc programme:-
http://bit.ly/96QeDJ
OT - there is a YOGOV in todays Sun, not a VI one but on the NHS and does not make good reading for Labour..
Nights and weekends were the worst for staffing. A junior doctor came to me one day and said very quietly: “Get your mum out of here.”
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2892109/NHS-crisis-Your-views-on-state-of-our-hospitals-revealed.html#ixzz0iD52W97Z
and
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
On the markets Mike, I think you are right re ICM plus there may be a little of waiting to see what the Budget contains and how the TV debates go.
Times leader not that great either..
Labour, not Delivery.
Leaked details of the party’s manifesto show a party queasy about its past and more keen on appearing to address concerns than on actually doing so.
..
Mr Brown approaches the next election with two tasks. The first is to defend his record and that of his party. The second is to explain why he feels that both deserve another five years. This first draft of the manifesto appears to dodge the first task and underwhelms on the second.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7061788.ece
For the record, I had a substantial bet yesterday on CON Most Seats at 1.25.
This was not fashionable,I know but it all helps to pay the bills.
4 URW - OGH will be flattered to learn that pb.com is holding up the Tories’ odds in the GE markets. Honestly, I can’t believe it - there are only a dozen or do betting posters on PB, although I accept there may be many times that number of betting lurkers.
I had honestly believed that Labour’s support in the polls would be seriously falling away in these early months of 2010, there’s just no good news around or in the offing and even house prices are declining once again. I can’t start to imagine what is moving the polls Labour’s way, but that is undoubtedly what’s happening.
You Gov appear to be artificially bolstering labour by 2% in their Scottish figures; not sure how they justified as accurate Labour having more support than the SNP, Libs and Tories combined for example, any 5% lead in the UK is really a 7% lead in England.
When an English poll is less than 5% on its own, without Scotland or even Wales, then punters may reassess, until then we know the combined figure is spurious.
VIPA+AR+Andy Cooke+OGH= a Tory Majority,PfP. This is the best market of all because the only mistake you can make is to Back a LAB Overall.
10. pfp - Mike said he’d have some interim results from his pb.com survey this weekend, as it included betting questions we might have more idea of the numbers, assuming of course enough people have completed it.
OT - just a wee anecdote on Greece, my best friend’s hubby is Greek and, due to him being terminally ill, she’s been talking to the family in Athens quite a bit these last few days. Apparently the ones that work in the public sector, mostly health, haven’t been paid since early January. No wonder they are out on the streets.
The thing keeping Labour alive in the low 30s when they should, by rights, be in the teens or lower is that the client state is starting to understand what is coming. Osborne is right about debt and that has pretty scary personal implications if you are one of the millions Labour has so firmly attached to the public sector teat.
This coming election is a battle between those who take and those who give in our society. Labour has been trying determinedly for a decade to bring the scale of takers up to and over the scale of the givers, in the hope that that could create a permanent voting majority of entitlements minded supporters. The huge scale of immigration is not an accident – Labour see millions of extra voters who they can keep dependent.
Just take a look at the terms and conditions in the public sector and the numbers employed there under this government. And then take a look at the same in the private sector that pays for it.
If Labour win the GE we’ll be Greece in about 6 months. If they lose the client state is going to take a pasting and they know it – hence Labour’s poll survival.
5. Cameron gets out all his pent-up aggression watching that stuff. His political ideas were cast from reading ‘1984′, written by Blair (Eric Arthur, not Anthony Charles Lynton).
5 Just the sort of “balanced” view you’d expect from Hoggart! - It will be interesting to hear the more subjective opinions in the Times and The Telegraph.
Another interesting bet I had yesterday was to Back DC for next PM at 1.32.
Good luck to the one who matched me.I think he had a point.Anyway I downed the fag-end of my bet and am asking for 1.39.
This has been a minor triumph as I am very green on Cameron- Brown on the Party Leaders market and that looks just about weighed-in.
14. Britain’s finances are in a far worse state than those of Greece. The only difference is that Greek lying bastards are considered the norm, while Labour lying bastards are considered the exception.
13 Kristin - a sign of things to come here if someone doesn’t take a grip PDQ.
The odds suggest people believe a combination of (in order of importance):
1) Andy Cooke
2) ICM (pre spiral of silence)
3) Angus Reid
4) Mike Smithson
5) No spiral of silence adjustment needed in Labour’s favour
13. Your Greek anecdote. The same will happen here if Labour are re-elected. Interest rates will spike, and foreign money disappear. The ‘client state’ should vote Conservative. At least they will get paid.
19 @pfp even getting a grip might have unforseen consequences, unfortunately. TBH I don’t know why anyone would want the job.
NOM’s price has not shifted much, mainly because of three reasons.
1. Labour’s progress has halted, they no longer have the momentum they had a couple of weeks ago.
2. The budget is next week and that is highly likely to see the polls shift heavily in favour of the Conservatives.
3. Angus Reid! If Mike had not enticed them to our shores, then the general consensus would likely be that the Conservative lead was down to the 5-7& region. Unfortunately for NOM backers, AR comes out every couple of weeks or so to cast doubt upon the rest of the pollsters and and downward movement on the NOM price is either arrested or reversed.
I am not a backer of NOM any longer. Brown once again threw away his best chances of a hung parliament by not calling an earlier election. The bounce is now over and I believe that will be confirmed with double digit leads for the Conservatives within a few days of the budget.
The only way I would consiuder backing NOM is if Brown went for a June election, because that, at least, would give him time to build some momentum for a final bounce.
14 Patrick - we’re only in the early hours, but that’s probably the post of the day - you’ve got it in one. Still doesn’t totally explain though why the Tory lead has halved over the past 6 months, that’s the big mystery to me.
Pre-Budget, the most significant *foreseeable* landmark is the next ICM poll. Currently the lead stands at seven points and it will take a two point shift to make an appreciable difference.
The budget itself will be almost universally rubbished on pb.com, whatever the contents, so we will put that down to *noise*.
Interesting 3 party system debate in Tasmania, yes I know it is not THAT relevant, but bear with me on this.
The fact is the Labour party in Tassie has dropped from biggest to 2nd sized party, the right wing party is the biggest and the third party is now just one point behind the government. There are 25% undecided a week out.
Both big parties refuse to discuss a hung parliament although using the PR system on these figures it is inevitable.
The right wing party says a vote for the third party is a vote that will keep Labour in power. Labour not targetting the third party, only the opposition. Some think a deal has already been done with the third party to keep the unpopular leader of Labour in power. Both Labour and the third party deny this.
Err, I know I said it is not THAT relevant but spot the similarities!
They had a big debate on TV last night, but the third party was excluded, at the behest of the pay tv broadcaster who only wanted a debate between those who would become the Premier……
@24 pfp, does it not tally with the return of Campbell et al working away in the background, it’s the media wot done it. Labour have nor been held to account by the media over the last few months, it’s be relentless pushing the Conservatives to give detail on what they would could when even darling can’t give that without a spending review.
23 NOM’s price has not shifted much
Eh? I was buying NOM last Autumn at 4/1, now it’s barely 6/4 and falling.
what they would could = what they would cut
The reason for Labour’s rise in the polls has very little to do with its so called client state.
The reason is simply because it is fashionable to hate the government mid-term, but when elections approach, people’s minds start to focus. As it were, “fun and games is over”.
What this all suggests to me is that the voting patterns out in the country probably haven’t changed that much since the last election, and it was only Gordon Brown’s unpopularity and David Cameron’s popularity which shifted the polls.
Now however, it is all about policy, and maybe not even policy, but rather a visceral decision making purpose based on all the old prejudcies, memories, haves and have-nots, etc etc.
I think what this election is going to prove is that Britain has not changed as much as people think. Its still largely a bipolar society, and still very socially tribal.
Patrick, you are spot on above by the way, I think that is the crux of it. people will not vote to lose their pensions even if the country cannot afford it. Greece mark II with denial of the truth here we come.
28. I think Mike was referring to RECENT movements pfp, as was I.
O/T:
From this newspaper report, it sounds like Burnley and Pendle will be counting on the night. Burnley is a top LD target from Labour and Pendle is a crucial Tory target from Labour:
http://www.burnleycitizen.co.uk/news/burnley/5058392.All_East_Lancashire_councils_planning_overnight_election_counts/
Takes the total to 426 = 65.5%.
31 Redcliffe
I think you might be onto something there.
27. Or the polls are in la la land, as the betters clearly believe. The narrowing polling levels were all predicted by the Labour Election Planners in December 2009. You will no doubt see the rest of the narrative which promises equal polling by election day.
And then we’ll see how well the postal voting campaigns have been orchestrated. We have an electoral system to disgrace a banana republic, remember. In banana republics, everyone knows the President is a crook. In Britain they still believe in Santa Klaus.
Tapestry: would you like to see as many immediate counts as possible rather than Friday morning/afternoon counting?
27 Campbell?
Possibly, but I don’t get the impression he’s greatly liked in the media and certainly if he’s having a significant impact he’s uncharacteristically* hiding his light under a bushel.
*Not bad coming out with a 20 letter word at 3.44am innit?
Speaking of which, goodnight all.
So Jupiter and Tapestry, if Brown was to make promises and say that pensions for public workers would be guaranteed (ring fenced) under Labour do you think that would be enough to get him over the line.
Does anyone really think a spiral of silence adjustment is needed in Labour’s favour? 2 questions:
1) Are people more embarrassed to say they are voting Labour or Conservative? Note I don’t mean “should be embarrassed”.
Due to continued media vilification of the Conservatives I think there are more people embarrassed to say Conservative.
2) What sort of people refuse to say how they would vote?
I think the answer here is likely to be older, traditional people, again more likely to vote Conservative.
So if a spiral of silence adjustment is needed it is in the Conservatives favour. Yet ICM are giving labour a net gain of 2 points.
Election timetable per BBC:
Note - all 3 debates are on Thursdays so no clashes with Champions League (some previous reports said final debate would be on the Wednesday).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8496591.stm
39 Mike - an interesting point - have ICM admitted making such a 2% adjustment for this so-called “spiral of silence”?
I’m beginning to find these 11th hour adjustments rather tiresome. YG’s recently introduced re-categorization between loyal and disloyal(or whatever)Labour supporters is another example. Now is not the time for pollsters to be messing with their methodologies.
41. It says so in Mike S’s article at the top of this thread.
However I cannot see the poll detail yet on the ICM website.
40 Re: TV Debates - so these will take place on 15, 22 & 29 April.
It doesn’t seem long to go now does it?
Mostly I think it’s because people are betting on the election outcome rather than what they might gain on short term trading. I think everyone expects David Cameron to pretty much demolish Gordon Brown during the election campaign and no one wants to be stuck having made a bet on NOC when the election result comes in.
That’s rather simplistic though…
The link between Labour doing OK in polls and a potential hung parliament, and the pound falling like a stone, lost its direct correlation 4 days ago in Oz.
Since then at 10am UK time almost on the dot there is manic buying of the pound from British “institutions” to make up for the overnight losses. Nobody else is buying, just the “Brits”. This morning was no exception. They might even plan for this tomorrow as the purchasing is now almost predictable!
My mate who works at Westpac thinks it is simply so the narrative that the Labour party is bad for the Pound can be quelled in the election campaign. Can it be that simple?
OT Baroness Ashton faces first big international test with Middle East trip.
Baroness Ashton of Upholland faces her first big international test as the EU’s top diplomat this week after flying into the Middle East to plead for peace talks to start despite a dramatic increase of tension in the region.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7061652.ece
..
The thing I found surprising in this article is the amount of money the EU is pouring into the middle east.
..
Above all she will be expected to get more for the EU from the enormous sums of money it spends on development programmes, especially the €1 billion (£907 million) a year spent in the Palestinian territories. Egypt will receive €449 million in 2011-13, Syria €129 million in the same period, Lebanon €150 million, Jordan €223 million and Israel €4 million.
In the list of seats ranked by the percentage of adults on out-of-works benefits of one kind or another, there are only 18 Conservative seats in the top 300:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226031/EXPOSED-How-Labour-depends-votes-Welfare-Britain.html
The polls aren’t convincing punters because the CGT* model says el Torees can only lose if a) ZNL play a top game all the way to election day and b) the Cameroons shoot themselves in the foot continuously all the way to election day.
Both of these are possible but unlikely.
(*cool-graph-theory)
Also if we’re going to have an election with no actual politics in it where everything is either smears or Hello magazine b*****ks then i think what would be more entertaining for the punters would be either
Cameron, Clegg and McDoom locked in a cage with a lump hammer each - last man standing wins
or
a three wives jello wrestling in lingerie death match
or
you could be all modern and PC and do it the other way round.
I think there are two reasons, one psychological, one real.
Punters- like everyone else- tend to stick within a comfort zone of what they think they understand. It is psychologically easier to deal with the familiar- and ignore the tsunami headed straight for you. We don’t see systemic shifts in British politics very often- probably less than once a generation- so even if these changes are happening, they are very rare and we wouldn’t necessarily recognise the signs, even if they were evident.
In reality, FWIW, I think the chances of a hung Parliament are a bit less than 50-50, so the punters should be being more sceptical about the hung Parliament scenarios.
Nevertheless that less than 50-50 chance carries with it some very far reaching consequences if it happens. In a sense you could argue that this election could indeed throw up a “black swan”: a highly unusual result with far reaching consequences. However, of course, “Black swans” are very rare: I think that is the reality of what the market is telling you at the moment.
Anecdotally I do sense the potential for something big to happen this time: not just a change in the party of government- as usual- but a systemic change. It is far from a certainty, but I think it is more likely than at any election in my generation.
After the event, people will try to look for the inevitable signs. I see no such signs, I only see heightened probabilities.
One thing that should be holding up the Tory majority price a bit (don’t know if it is) is that Cameron has been playing things very safe over the past year or so, and still has the option to make some gambles that would pay off in the average case.
One obvious one would be to throw the wingers a bone about some kind of a referendum on Europe. It’s not hard to see that gaining him a couple of %. There’s a risk that it will frighten moderate voters and lose him more than a couple of %, and while it looked like he was cruising to a win it wasn’t worth his while rolling the dice. But if he’s heading for a Hung Parliament and he really wants a majority, it could be worth his while to try it.
If Cameron really wants a majority and is prepared to take some chances to get one, there’s no shortage of chances he could take that might well get him over the top.
The corollary of this is that Cameron may be tempted to do something dangerous that will backfire, resulting in a Labour majority. Seems to me that that’s where the value is right now, if you believe the current polling.
Trevor McDonald Meets David Cameron
http://www.itv.com/itvplayer/video/?Filter=127596
51 “that Cameron has been playing things very safe over the past year or so”
Different eyes i guess. I’d say they’d been shooting themselves in the foot on a more or less weekly basis ever since the Lisbon announcement.
Police asked to investigate if ‘criminality’ took place under Purcell
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Police-asked-to-investigate-if.6150871.jp
The polls aren’t convincin punters because most punters understand that the Tories are going to win. The only quesiton is how big the majority will be.
In other news, I continue to be impressed by just how much the Tories on here hate the majority of people in this country who do not vote Tory.
“This coming election is a battle between those who take and those who give in our society”
All those disgusting, grasping teachers, nurses, doctors, soldiers, policemen and so on. How dare they, eh?
52 - Ah yes, the programme that made Gordon Brown on Piers Morgan look like a grilling.
Titchmarch and Sir Trev. Dave really does put himself under pressure.
51 - Cameron has the election in the bag. There is no need for him to do anything dangerous. The only thinj the Tories have to do now is keep a relatvely low profile and wait for Brown to self-destruct, as he is bound to over the course of an election campaign.
The Tories have done all the ad work and Labour’s unpopularity will deliver them the election victory. The hard bit starts after they win and my guess is that Dave & Co are spending a lot of their time thinking about this now.
‘Under-threat MP accuses party activists of bullying’
http://news.scotsman.com/edinburgh/Underthreat-MP-accuses-party-activists.6150844.jp
This is just getting worse and worse for Iain Gray. The man seems to be utterly incompetent at every single level: in the Parliamentary chamber, as a public figurehead, and as a people manager, both at national level, and even in his own goddam constituency for heaven’s sake.
‘Labour leader Gray dragged into Moffat controversy’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/labour-leader-gray-dragged-into-moffat-controversy-1.1013194
SO. If I may say so that is a perfect example of deliberate misreading and a classic lefty whinge.
Take doctors. How much has their pay gone up in recent years? How does that compare with private sector pay? Can it be right that a GP earns 6 figures? And what about the NHS bureaucracy? Or collective wage bargaining? Etc, etc. There is huge scope for FAIR cost reductions in health spending without impacting front line service delivery. Yes, doctors do a good job for the most part. I have 3 parts of sod all sympathy, however, for a GP earning 100k who won’t work at the weekend if his salary gets cut back to 70k.
Same sort of argument applies for teachers. I’m sure most teachers are dedicated. I’m also sure we waste a shitload of money in education. We have temples of shiny new schools – but still a crap education being delivered inside them. We got to the moon in the blackboard and chalk age (OK the Saturn’s had the computer power of a modern calculator. BFD). Are the teaching unions the friend or the enemy of good education? Should we implement performance pay? How about proper discipline in schools? Are those who set and mark exams blameless? The individuals maybe be mostly blameless but collectively they have conspired to ruin the life chances of a generation of kids and to take a hugely larger amount of money from taxpayers to achieve it.
You take the very easy soft mental model that all public sector workers are front line staff and blamelessly and tirelessly working for our common good. It ain’t so. And the further you get from the front line the worse the waste and bureaucracy gets.
Patrick, Perhaps worth considering the differences in the system between Scotland, and England and Wales, on health and education.
It still does not resolve the fact that with manufacturing jobs down and public sector jobs, both direct and indirect up, the UK as a whole has moved into almost solely offering service industries for employment.
Which explains why so many are inactive in a society built on this premise.
Which also explains why even with a weak pound the balance of payments is down the 88p plug.
When you write:
“This coming election is a battle between those who take and those who give in our society”
You are clearly stating that those who work in the public sector are takers and those who work in the private sector are givers, and that you see no benefit in the contribution that any person in the public sector makes.
Your contempt for non-Tory voters is made clear with such sentiments. Everything you say may well be correct - though I do not think so - what I was commenting on is the clear hatred you have for most of those in this country who do not share your views.
Harriet Harman was ordered to stop misleading the public about rape by an official inquiry report yesterday.
The Equalities Minister was accused of pumping out unreliable figures about the low number of rapists brought to justice, thus discouraging victims from reporting attacks.
The review by Baroness Stern appeared to put an end to years of claims by ministers that laws and criminal procedures for dealing with rape need radical reform because only six per cent of complaints end in a conviction.
The claim was even made by Miss Harman last September on the day she set up the Stern review.
But Lady Stern, a prison reform campaigner and human rights activist, called in her report for ‘an end to the widespread use of misleading rape conviction data - in particular the six per cent conviction rate figure’.
The six per cent figure relates to reported cases. In fact, the conviction rate for those actually charged with rape is nearly two out of three, higher than comparable figures for other violent crime.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257981/Harriet-Harmans-unreliable-statistics-rape-scare-victims.html#ixzz0iE2aydNj
The punters distrust the polls, and YouGov in particular.
Talking amongst friends, acquaintances, and the man on the street, it seems pretty obvious that the government is sorely loathed, with some visceral hatred being aimed at Brown. We are hearing reports from the doorsteps in support of this, and Brown’s TV appearance yesterday adds further weight.
Such loathing seems strongest amongst women, and this is backed-up by last week’s Question Time, where the all female audience from a Labour voting town poured much scorn upon the government.
The frantic poisoning of the wells aimed at hampering the incoming Conservative administration, suggests that Labour know they have lost. I recently heard Lord Goldsmith debating with his Tory shadow, Edward Garnier QC, on Radio 4, and Goldsmith’s language indicated that he had already accepted defeat.
Much is likely to change in the next few weeks. There has already been a subtle change in recent reporting of Cameron, and once the election is called the government will not be able to control the news agenda in the way that they have. The balanced reporting rules will kick-in but the newspapers will become more polarised, and I suspect they will largely favour the Tories.
Cameron seems certain to come out tops in the TV debates, and his beautiful wife seems likely to prove another asset in his favour. I also suspect the Conservatives have a few tricks up their sleeve, that they need to keep close to their chest until Labour has published its manifesto.
We have had a similar thread to this before - as I posted then .
Stage 1 Conservative lead in polls Conservative punters back them to win GE
Stage 2 Conservative lead in polls increases Conservative punters back Conservatives to win landslide/higher seat range
Stage 3 Conservative lead narrows in polls Conservative punters continue to back Conservatives convincing themselves they are now getting better odds .
Stagw 4 Conservative lead continues to narrow , Conservative punters start to shout that polls are wrong but Conservatives will still win .
Stage 5 Ditto Conservative punters face massive financial loss and try to rescue their positions at any price they can .
We are now well into Stage 4 . When Stage 5 finally hits home there will be a massive over-reaction in the markets . It will then strangely be the right time to back the Conservatives .
39 MikeL 41 PfP: Spiral of Silence
… yesterday’s poll from the firm had this at 7% after the spiral of silence adjustment had trimmed it from 39-30.
Okay, I can see that the tables have turned and previously there had to be an adjustment for the ‘Shy Tory’. Now it’s Labour who needs the boost.
But has anyone stopped to consider the effect on this ‘reluctance’ on Turnout. Could it be that the ‘Shy Labour’ voters will stay at home so their reluctance-to-vote is already factored into the raw polling data. It’s already priced-in.
If so, to adjust for it again with a 2-point rocket-boost for Labour seems like a circular argument to me.
So Mike, you’ve answered your own question. The reason the betting markets haven’t moved is that sophisticated punters are looking at the raw tables and using the evidence of their eyes and ears to make judgements, not just sitting back and letting the wonks do it for them.
Can people who hate make sensible bets?
I thought the whole point of betting was that you did it without emotion. To make money.
It’s hard to believe the YouGov/BPIX polls because everyday experience contradicts them. Almost the only place I still see committed Labour supporters is online. In real life, very few of my friends, family and colleagues express support for Labour these days. Five years ago, most of them did. Now they are angry, dismayed, contemptuous of Brown and horrified by Mandelson. Some of them might hold their noses and vote Labour anyway I suppose but fewer than in 2005.
It’s hard to know how representative one’s own social circle is but it does seem hard to square with the recent YouGov polls.
I work about 50% in the nhs and 50% in the private sector. So am I a giver or taker? I do the same work in each, and pay the same taxes in each. In which sector am I useful to society and in which am I the parasite?
I’m not sure that ’shy Tories’ are being replaced by ’shy Labour’ to any great extent, as it’s a phenomenon which is not simply a reaction to the Conservatives being seen as ‘the nasty party’. From my experience canvassing - many years ago - Conservatives were always more reluctant to say who they were voting for, but this was a general ‘we don’t talk about politics to strangers’ attitude rather than shy about being identified with an unpopular party.
When we were canvassing we would often use our gut feeling about how we marked these people on our sheets, but that’s not something that the pollsters can do.
I’ve not been out on the knocker for years now, so I’m not sure how much things have changed.
55 - I’m impressed Southam - “In other news, I continue to be impressed by just how much the Tories on here hate the majority of people in this country who do not vote Tory.”
ALL the tories, every single one?
You are getting more and more shrill as the days go by.
Hate to say it, your turning into gabble / tim lite.
Mike- “The only polls coming in at under seven have been from YouGov or YouGov/BPIX.”
Factually incorrect. The last MORI and Comres both showed 5% leads.
68 Archroy
Shy Tory/ Shy Labour. It’s /because/ I’ve been knocking on doors that I can see that those with a Labour predisposition are responding ‘Won’t Say’, ‘Haven’t made-up my mind’, ‘I’m going to read the leaflets’. Contrast this with the way the same voters used to proudly announce that they were voting for Labour.
Yep, it’s the ‘Shy Labour’ effect.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257944/NICE-rejects-drugs-allowed-Europe-extended-20-000-cancer-patients-lives.html
At the same time we have this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257900/NHS-wastes-487m-just-years-advice-outside-consultants.html
“The Department of Health has spent £478million on management consultants and accountants over the last five years, figures reveal today.
That works out at more than £260,000 a day, including weekends. It is the equivalent of the annual salaries of around 17,000 nurses.
The spending splurge will shock taxpayers and infuriate cancer sufferers whose life could be extended if they were given drugs which are rejected as too expensive. ”
Lets just think what all that debt interest we are going to be paying could have funded instead.
71 - Bunnco, I have a question of etiquette to ask you. I have a pb2 post pretty much ready to upload. How long would you like me to wait to give your article a fair chance for people to have a read of it before I post mine?
Some 73,000 intruders have been given little more than a slap on the wrist for breaking in to homes since 1998 fuelling claims of soft justice.
It means tens of thousands of burglars have avoided the courts and the risk of jail.
In addition, those who are convicted in court are responsible for up to 27,000 extra crimes every year, including 4,000 new break-ins.
The figures will reignite concerns over the use of out-of-court penalties which has risen sharply since Labour came to power.
It comes at a time of growing alarm over the scale of burglary and the possible erosion of home owners’ rights to defend their property and family.
It emerged last week, under proposals from sentencing advisers to the Lord Chief Justice that burglars could still escape custody even if they use violence.
A total of 73,000 offenders were cautioned for burglary between 1998 and 2008, according to Ministry of Justice figures.
That is 20 per cent of the 354,500 who were either cautioned or found guilty in the courts for the offence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/7442046/One-in-five-burglars-let-off-with-a-caution-under-Labour.html
WTF???
65. Mark Senior - ” When Stage 5 finally hits home there will be a massive over-reaction in the markets . It will then strangely be the right time to back the Conservatives .”
Right, and wrong.
Yes, the betting markets are going to massively over-react, thus creating a fine betting opportunity for wiser heads.
But wrong, in the respect that there is still going to be a handsome Con Maj. Labour are going to get truly thumped.
75 Good morning Stuart , are you still publishing the Yougov subsamples showing SNP in 4th place in Scotland ?
Hattie’s get a pasting over her rape statistics - good. R4 and R5 ocvering it well.
Hattie’s get a pasting over her rape statistics - good. R4 and R5 ocvering it well.
Cold shoulder
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2892350/Tycoons-snub-over-Purcell-row.html
This one is going to run and run and run and run.
This is just the tip of the Scottish Labour Mafia iceberg.
Could the reason for the lack of movement in the betting prices simply be that punters believe the public will move back to the Tories as election day nears?
In other words, even if punters do believe the polls at the moment, they’re taking them in the round and YouGov - the most Labour-friendly and most frequently reporting - is not the only one. They also expect the gap to increase again once Gordon hits the election trail.
FWIW, I’m not convinced they’re right. I believe a big reason behind the gap in the polls closing is that a large section of the electorate believe the government has ’sorted out’ the recession and has done so skillfully and largely painlessly (to them). They believe this (a) because it’s what the government says, (b) because it chimes with their own experience - they’re people who’ve kept their jobs and seen their mortgage payments plummet, for example - and (c) because they really don’t want to contemplate the alternative.
In fact, they’re wrong: this is a pain-deferred recession for the majority, unlike those of the early 1980s and 1990s - but the pain will be deferred until well after the election. There’s no reason to see the Budget as a big event. There’ll be tinkering and, in as far as is possible, reassuring noises for the markets about intentions but no action on the deficit. Pain deferred.
This is not completely hypocriticial of Labour, just deeply delusional. Labour’s plans really don’t call for cuts at all. Their objective is to reduce the deficit to £90bn pa after five years of growth. One of the two big gambles in their plans is that the markets would be willing to continue funding the deficit as cheaply and as willingly as they are now. The other is that if the markets wouldn’t, it won’t matter if they’re in opposition anyway.
So NOM looks very good value to me. I don’t expect Tory campaigning to remain as timid (a word I’d prefer to ’safe’) as it has been so far this year but the government’s established a strong narrative for itself and has shown much improved abilities in the black arts recently. Gaining those 120+ seats will be far from easy. I agree with Cicero about the odds, if not the long-awaited realignment of British politics (that might be the election after next); a Tory majority government is probably a better than 50/50 chance but not much.
77. Mark Senior
Yes.
Here you go Mark:
Latest YouGov/Sun Scottish sub-sample (usual caveats apply):
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)
Lab 38% (-1)
Con 22% (+6)
LD 19% (-4)
SNP 17% (-1)
Grn 2% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)
UKIP 1% (+1)
oth 0
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results_11.03-trackers.pdf
Peter Kellner’s professional reputation, R.I.P.
24. No it’s not it’s totally batty! When I first read it I thought it was written by Tapestry. Any normal person would see it for the right wing conspiracy theory nonsense normally associated with the US.
Because his English is OK and his posts start out sounding normal doesn’t mean he isn’t barking because he is!
38. If Brown gets back in, (by hocus pocus or by promising to spend all the money in the world) his client state will find that markets will not fund him. People have the choice, either pay cheques and pensions arrive, or pensions and pay cheques don’t arrive. If my fellow countrymen and women wish to believe that money grows on trees and Brown promises to harvest it on their behalf, they will then find out why it is necessary to vote Conservative.
OR they can choose to pre-empt a collapse of confidence in advance of an event which will not be forgotten for generations - national insolvency.
Brown And Clegg Play On The Beach.
83 - It’s not batty, though I think it’s overstated.
One regular poster the other day wrote something to the effect of “thank goodness I’m a pensioner, it’s you lot who are working who are going to have to pay for all of this through your taxes”. The idea that his pension might be taxed more heavily (or if a state or public sector pension, that it might be reduced) clearly had not crossed his mind.
That kind of lack of appreciation of what might be coming is what any sane political party should be terrified of. Whoever wins this election can expect to break records for unpopularity.
82. Ah, the warm glow of Con gain Angus and Perth.
Out of interest, Stuart (or any other well informed Scottish posters), how do you see the tactical vote battle going in places like Angus or P&PN. Both are proper SNP/Con marginals but with very sizable Lab and LD contingents.
Gordon on Woman’s Hour R4 at 10:00
Wonder who he’ll be blaming for everything this morning?
FPT paulwaugh
“Isn’t it a bit rich for J Freedland to slag Cam’s posh schooling when he himself attended fee-paying UCS?”
I am glad someone mentioned that. Among the richest 1% or so of the population, people may see a clear distinction between the Camerons and the Freedlands, but the remaining 99% don’t distinguish between a family of public-school, Oxbridge educated upper middle class journalists, and a family of public-school, Oxbridge educated upper middle class stockbrokers.
85 Agreed. It’s astonishing that so many people can’t see what awaits them.
88 Indeed - I had no idea about Cameron’s dad having a serious disability.
Having no heels must be a nightmare - how on Earth can he walk at all?
I really liked his mum - she had magistrate written all over her.
89, is it? The Government’s lied over this, the media have not reported the truth of the matter, the Lib Dems are in bed with Labour and the Tories know that if they go out on a limb they’ll be attacked by everybody else for pointing out the obvious (indeed Calamity Clegg accused them of running a protection racket, rather assuming Cameron is secretly King of the Exchange Rate).
On topic, without the spiral of silence adjustment, the Conservatives would be -1% and Labour -2%, compared to the last ICM poll.
The thing that’s holding up the Tory price is the group think on here! It’s not even group think it’s group delusion!
The polls are narrowing-Mike missed out the 2% MORI- and it’s looking very unlikely the Tories will get a majority.
The posters flit from here to Conhome to Guido and then regurgitate the grotesque characature of Labour that persuades the gamblers that no right minded person would ever vote for them.
91 I think the media have acquitted themselves very badly all round - from cringing and fawning to New Labour/McBride to being unable to differentiate between debt and deficit.
93 Which 2% MORI?
Why aren’t the polls convincing people?
Er, because they don’t believe them, one in particular, whose name we don’t need to mention!
I take issue with the premise of the thread.
The surprise is not that the odds haven’t moved “much” in the last week, it’s that they took so long to move between December and February.
Peter from Putney proposed a bet at the end of Jan recommending
13/2 Tory seats 300-324 and 4/1 325-349
On 1st Feb I launched the magnificent PfP-tim Bastard Love Child Bet of
10/1 Tory Seats 250-299
13/2 Tory Seats 300-324
4/1 Tory Seats 325-350
Best prices now on those bands are
6.3/1
7/2
3/1
Thats a big change in 6 weeks, amazed it took so long.
Roger, I’m not sure about that.
I’ve got a business to run, and hence am betting on a labour victory as a sort of disaster recovery mode. We’re going to shut the business down and emigrate (I already work outside the UK, and have done for a number of years. I’m selling IT applications that are developed in the UK).
Quite possibly a lot of diversity co-ordinators have bets on a Tory victory, because in that case they’ll lose their sinecures.
Insurance is only betting, after all.
85.Antifrank. Incase you were looking at a different post. Tell me with a straight face he’s not ‘barking just overstating’.
“This coming election is a battle between those who take and those who give in our society. Labour has been trying determinedly for a decade to bring the scale of takers up to and over the scale of the givers, in the hope that that could create a permanent voting majority of entitlements minded supporters. The huge scale of immigration is not an accident – Labour see millions of extra voters who they can keep dependent”.
88. Isn’t the distinction more that one is a very serious candidate to be PM and the other isn’t?
That Freedland might be being a bit rich in his comments is beside the point if the focus ends up back on the ‘privileged’ background of Cameron. Noone cares who Freedland is or where he came from.
This whataboutery the Conservatives seem to be getting into as a response is simply far too passive and ends up with them playing their opponents’ game defensively. CCHQ has to get a grip of the agenda by going on the offensive or they will continue to slide in the polls.
As an aside, going on the offensive doesn’t mean just attacking Labour’s policies (which is fair and necessary but of interest to a limited number, many of whom have already made up their minds as it is), or Gordon Brown (who undoubtedly has failings but where the story’s already out so can’t be sustained). It means taking the fight to lesser Labour characters just as Labour did over the 1990s Sleaze campaign.
Expenses and the rest should be an ideal backdrop to feed two or three stories about backbench MPs or peers or senior councillors and tie them into a theme of excess, favours and venality (needs a catchier name though). Doing so would dominate the political media and prevent Labour from building up any momentum of their own. That the public hasn’t heard of most of the characters is beside the point, it all builds an impression of corruption.
Again, on topic, perhaps punters consider the Labour poll rating to be the key figure.
This week, Labour have polled 29% (Harris) 30% (Opinium), 31% (ICM) 33% (on average, with Yougov) and 26% (AR) - so punters may conclude that come the day, the vote will go to anyone but Labour.
99 - It’s a controversial viewpoint and one I don’t share, but there is some evidence that Labour consciously saw immigration as a means of changing society in a manner that it approved of. As it happens, I approve of those changes, by and large, but those who take a more jaundiced view are entitled to do so.
Assuming the ’spiral of silence’ is aimed the wrong way (e.g. Voters are still more unwilling to say that they’ll vote Tory than Labour, which seems plausible) by a similar amount then we could be looking at a consistent poll overstatement (of Labour) of 4% or more.
Only time will tell.
TimMontgomerie
Union video warns that 999 calls will go unanswered if there are public spending cuts http://bit.ly/d0LHBJ
101 - That’s pretty much my take. The big question is how the Tories will perform against the Lib Dems. I’m coming to the conclusion that the Tories may well do rather better than expected against the Lib Dems.
French ask Germans to stop working so hard, nobody else in Europe can keep up !
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2010/03/15/04016-20100315ARTFIG00496-christine-lagarde-appelle-berlin-a-modifier-sa-politique-.php
re 93. Roger - have you got access to Labour party private polling that I’ve not got?
For there has been no 2% MORI - the firm last reported on February 22nd when the lead was 5%.
O/T
I see that ChristinaD and Plato, two of the prime Sarah Brown baiters have now decided that Camerons mum is a big electoral asset.
You couldn’t make that up.
88 - I think the difference is that Freedlnad doesn’t have any plans to vote his family a £1m tax cut.
108, couldn’t you? I seem to recall those close to Brown have rather… vivid imaginations.
105 See 38 ICM thread re Wales PB2 seats.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7445010/Race-horse-Kauto-Star-better-known-than-Nick-Clegg-survey-shows.html
URL says it all
111, probably make a better PM too.
Incitatus for consul!
108..Good morning Tim the welcher..I bet that Freedland will take it tho..
A very good summary of Gordon on the Politics Show
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7443379/Comrade-Brown-as-deluded-as-the-East-German-politburo.html
111 - Very representative sample there!
Dave on Hague.
“He couldn’t find Notting Hill with two hands and a map”
William Hagues has trouble distinguishing between his arse and his elbow so that isn’t a surprise.
Anyway, why would he need to know where Notting Hill is, Lord Ashcrofts driver has a sat nav.
115, that’s true. And it’s a bit rich to write an article about ignorance of politics and in it claim Bercow is Leader of the House. I know he’s a bit of a lefty, but claiming he’s a frontbencher for Labour’s a little inaccurate.
88 I doubt if Freedland would turn it down (or you, for that matter).
It’s Freedland I’m interested in. It’s silly and pathetic to attack someone’s background, and particularly so when that person’s background is much the same as your own.
@116 Anyway, why would he need to know where Notting Hill is, Lord Ashcrofts driver has a sat nav.
by tim March 15th, 2010 at 8:42 am
What like Whelan’s Ghillie ?
108 ‘tim’ I notice that you’ve spontaneously name checked me twice in two days… Are you getting mentionitis?
Dangerous Dogs for NPMP
http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/homenews/Tory-canvasser-loses-chunk-finger-dog-attack/article-1909452-detail/article.html
121
110 - I understand your point about Lib Dem targeting, but even with that I have to say that I’m not convinced that they’ll be able to convert votes at different elections for different bodies into Westminster votes.
To take a single example, Newport East. The Lib Dems would need a heroic Westminster swing. They also need to persuade Tories that a blue vote is a wasted vote. The barchart is going to have to break all records in disingenuity to show the Lib Dems forging ahead of the Tories. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have no national groundswell of support to build on. I’d see Labour as closer to 1/5 in this seat than 1/2. The Lib Dems might well be able to improve their tallies in seats like Newport East, Swansea West and Wrexham, but they’d have to play out of their skins actually to take them even in a good year and this isn’t a good year for them.
I have a general theory about the Lib Dems, which I’m about to do a pb2 piece on, which is that no one really knows even roughly how they’re going to do. That is a valuable piece of information if you think about it.
Just heard an Exchange between Maguire and Kavanagh on R5 discussing Charlie Whelan and Unite.
Kavangagh compared Whelan with the IRA and Sinn Fein which upset Macguire.
This looking more and more like 1979 when Callaghan and members of his cabinet had to keep going cap in hand to the unions to ask them to put off strikes or come back to the negotiating table.
The Unions know this and it weakens the government further.
Bob Crow is on the horizon and he wont be as easy to negotiate with as Labours paymasters at Unite.
121 - See what happens when dogs start using disproportionate force against intruding Tories.
ICM data
Re point earlier on the thread about my reporting that the pre-spiral of silence adjustment for ICM was 39-30.
The came from the detailed ICM data which I got sent yesterday morning. It should be going up on the ICM web-site at some time today.
Interesting segment on R4 Today with Peter Hennesey & what happens in a hung Parliament. Even if Brown has fewer seats he still could try for a Queen’s Speech. If he lost that he has two options, (resign, ask for another dissolution), the queen, effectively one, as he’s already had a dissolution - accept his resignation. The queen then asks Cameron if he can command confidence of HoC. If Cameron loses vote on Queen’s Speech, he could ask for a Dissolution, which the queen would grant.
LOL
Alan Sugar says businesses are to blame for the fall in bank-lending , not the banks.
That sounds helpful.
http://www.birminghampost.net/birmingham-business/birmingham-business-news/businesslatest/2010/03/15/alan-sugar-blames-businesses-for-fall-in-uk-lending-65233-26032838/
86. David H - “… with very sizable Lab and LD contingents”
You’ve put your finger on David McLetchie’s problem there.
There were still a very large number of Lib-Lab and SSP voters in these two seats in 2005 (several thousands), but for every one Lib-Lab that switches to CON, at least two will switch to SNP. No SSPers will be voting CON.
If you are planning on betting CON in Angus or Perth & NP, I strongly advise you to have top-notch local intelligence. Otherwise, you are well-advised to stay clear of these markets.
Best CON price:
Angus 6/4
Perth and North Perthshire 6/4
The SNP are odds-on FAV in both seats. With good reason.
129. typo - best CON price in Perth&NP is 5/4
121 probably one of those nasty little terriers with teeth like needles that wait silently for someone to stick their hand through the letterbox.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7446247/Army-training-exercises-cut-by-a-third-to-save-money.html
What are Labour thinking of?
114. I like the last two lines.
“Near the end a life-long Labour voter called James tells Mr Brown: “Events are going to overwhelm you and you’re going to be swept away.”
On the evidence of this programme, it is very hard to believe that Mr Brown has any chance of winning the general election at all.”
There’s no evidence Brown has changed. As someone rightly noted yesterday if the debates used a “town hall meeting” format Brown would get slaughtered.
There were over 16,500 Labour, Lib Dem and SSP voters in Perth & North Perthshire in May 2005. (And very similar numbers in neighbouring Angus.)
If Tories think that they can take more of that pool of voters than the SNP can, then they are very “brave” punters. “Brave” in the Sir Humphrey Appleby sense.
The SNP always run a good old-fashioned, straightforward “Don’t let the Tories in” campaign in these two seats. It always works an absolute treat. Funny that.
116.Tim TW.you seem to have difficulty finding your hand and your pocket
123 Whilst more sympathetic to the LibDems than many here — at least I thought Charles Kennedy was a truly exceptional leader — I completely agree with antifrank’s last paragraph.
There are a number of reasons to be very bearish about their prospects; [1] they have historically found it much harder to take Labour seats than Tory ones, so whereas there may be progress in some of the Labour-held targets, there will be few dramatic wins, [2] for the first time since 1983, they are faced with a rising Tory vote, and I think they will be surprised at its strength in the South and South-West, [3] there will be dividing lines on policy (e.g., immediate cuts or not) in the run-up to the election, the LibDems will have to nail their colours to the mast, and this will inevitably lose them votes, [4] Iraq, one of the most distinctive and popular policies last time, is no longer so very relevant.
An interesting question is: How low could they go? My answer would be ~ 30. I think the LibDems will do well to retain half their seats.
There will be rich pickings for them in the years that follow the election, of course.
re Statto @ 7.16.
If you had read the post it was clear that this related to polls of the last week. MORI and ComRes are from a bit earlier.
14. Patrick:
This coming election is a battle between those who take and those who give in our society.
Indeed.
Currently the private sector has TAKEN around $5trn globally from the public sector in order to prop itself up after careering the world economy into the worst recession since the depression.
And note no word of thanks from the private sector either.
Given that the headlong rush to diasaster was based on nothing more than eye-popping rightwing hubris, this disaster is also a massive moral failure on the part of the private sector and the shrill useful idiots like yourself who keep banging the drum for clapped out ideology and rank poor decision making.
107. Mike 4th March on Anthony Well’s site. It might not be MORI. The symbol is too small to see. I guessed MORI by a process of elimination
Morning all.
On topic: Some very good comments in this thread, especially David H at 81.
Clearly polls aren’t the whole story; punters need to take a view as to how things will move over the next few weeks. My guess is that most punters reckon the voting intentions are currently something like (please look away for a moment, Mike) the UKPR average 38/31/18; certainly that 7 pt lead seems a reasonable estimate given the polls as a whole.
If we accept that, then consider what will happen in the next couple of months. Firstly, it is a ‘truth universally acknowledged’ that the LibDems will gain a bit, maybe 2 pts or more, during the campaign. It’s a fair guess that that will come more from Labour than the Conservatives. Secondly, before the election we will have the budget, the debates, the launch of Labour manifesto and therefore increased media scrutiny of Labour (nearly all the scrutiny has been on the Tories in recent months) and the actual campaigning itself where we know the Tories have at least a
financial advantage. In addition, there may well be increasingly disturbing noises from the financial markets at the prospect of a hung parliament, especially given the disturbing messages from the LibDems over the weekend.
Whatever view you take as to the likely effect of these and other factors, it seems undeniable that the lead may well end up 2 to 4 points, perhaps more, different from the current estimate of around 7. Punters may well simply be assuming that, given all the factors I’ve listed, the lead is likely to end up higher rather than lower than the current 7 pts. Add in the fact that there is good evidence of a differential swing that favours the Tories in key marginals and in the key region of the Midlands, and the current odds look quite explicable to me.
That doesn’t mean punters are right, of course; you have to form your own judgement on that!
I’m seeing alot more ’shy’ Tory voters of late than before the start of the year.
139 - It was YouGov and we all know they are linked to Moscow.
RE scottish subsamples and any othersmall sub samples These are statitically invalid inaccurate and a waste of time.Even You Gov is better becase it does have a sample size of 1000 plus in Scotland
139 - The last MORI was 22nd Feb, with a 5% lead.
90.”8 Indeed - I had no idea about Cameron’s dad having a serious disability.
Having no heels must be a nightmare - how on Earth can he walk at all?”
Plato, neither did I until read that first Cameron bio a couple of years ago. Its quite an amazing story, and he never ever let his disability effect his life. And I also didn’t know that his dad had eventually had to have both his legs amputated either.
Telegraph 2008 - David Cameron: Thoroughly modern Dave or the most traditional Tory leader ever?
“A more obvious psychological explanation might seem to lie in Ian Cameron’s disability. David’s father was born with badly deformed legs that required several operations and left him much shorter than he would otherwise have been. Many children of disabled parents want, as it were, to avenge such things, and are driven accordingly. But David denies that this applied to him. Ian was so entirely uncomplaining and so determined to live a normal life – playing tennis well, for example – that ‘nobody considered him disabled’. David says he was ‘profoundly unconscious’ of his father’s condition.
Once, with his father among the Cornish sand-dunes, he overheard someone rudely saying, ‘That guy’s wearing funny boots.’ He thought to himself, ‘That’s odd: no one ever says that’: he had hardly noticed it before. Today, Ian Cameron has had both legs amputated, and has lost the sight in one eye, but ‘he’s still a great lover of life’. The parents and all four children and their offspring are planning a family holiday next year in France.”
138.What would you have done Benboy, and what would you do now..
For those of you wanting the David Cameron lifestyle the Guardian have helpfully provided a link to help buy his kitchen appliances!
136..Gwynfa..No doubt you have backed up your assertions with a hefty bet on the spreads…looks like the drinks are on you then…but I wouldn’t bother with the hangover cure
Anyone hear Osborne on Today this morning? I thought he was excellent, calm, clear and just plain right.
Not that it seems to be penetrating the thick skulls of the electorate though, who resemble turkeys voting for Christmas as every poll narrows
145 - Here you go Christina, more on Daves dad.
http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/usa/images-3/god.jpg
105.”I’m coming to the conclusion that the Tories may well do rather better than expected against the Lib Dems.”
antifrank, I agree with this view. And the GE campaign strategy being unveiled by Clegg and the Libdems over recent weeks suggests that they are becoming increasingly concerned by this as the GE draws nearer.
Jon…your objectivity is impressive…are you by any chance planning to vote Conservative ?
On topic - if the punters dont believe the polls now - when will they believe them - what happens if by 1st May you gov are still 2-5% and Mori are 8-9%
This is a “special” set of election circumstances - unelected PM, 3rd term gov, MPs scandal, financial mismanagement on an epic scale by the CotE who is now PM - despite this there are people out there who will still vote Labour - much to the personal disgust and disbelief of a lot of right wingers - who are also punters.
How many people will actually turn out and vote (or who will have a postal vote submitted in their name ) is the big conundrum.
On the election - the media are trying to frame the debate as cuts now versus cuts later. This is wrong - the vested interest in public spending - unions, public sector and quangos will never say it is a good time to cut - if this time next year growth is low the economy will still be too fragile - if growth is high they will argue that increased revenues can pay off the debt. They will never allow a Labour government to make incisions into the fat of the state.
Good luck to all in your bets - I am keeping my money in my pocket for now - but betting on constituencies for fun.
148 I suspect Charles Kennedy will go down as the most successful LibDem leader ever.
Conditions may never repeat themselves so favourably for the LibDems (unpopular Gov’t and unpopular Opposition, with a clear issue, Iraq, to run with).
150
That is a truly odious comment tim, you should be ashamed of yourself. Are there no depths to which you won’t sink?
Re ICM I also noticed that both the Sunday Telegraph and ConHome (presumably copying the Telegraph) said a 7 point lead was the narrowest on ICM for two years. Yet it was a 7 point lead only 3 weeks ago (37/30) on 22 February.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/22/icm-has-the-lead-down-to-7-percent/
Does accuracy count for nothing any more? The media obviously want their polls narrowing narrative come what way, even tho for the past few weeks there’s been no consistency.
156 - Polly, you keep making that point, but the Telegraph made it very clear that the poll “equalled” the smallest lead for two years.
Go and look it up.
145 ChristinaD - never saw that article, what a good piece - and very consistent with what we saw on ITV last night.
155.
Typical Sanctimonious Tory nonsense.
I thought Tim’s comment was very funny, and sharply observed given the astounding bias and refusal to face reality from most Tory posters to PB.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
looks like more Monday morning sterling nonsense eh tim ?
“the headlong rush to diasaster was based on nothing more than eye-popping rightwing hubris”
No BenM, it was, in a nutshell, based on the philosophy of left wingers everywhere - spend more than you have and borrow the rest.
The irony is that all these bankers ran their business like Brown runs his government - with scant regard to the repayment of debt and a short time horizon (this year’s bonus in their case, this year’s election in his).
And don’t forget whose marvellous tripartite regulatory system allowed all this to happen unchecked - Gordon Brown’s. Couple that with the running of huge deficits even in the good years and you have a cast iron case for Brown being found guilty of making this recession a whole lot worse than it needed to be.
I can’t believe I’ve just wasted my time posting that, I promised myself I’d never rise to you again
gah
155. Like the defence of bullying (Ian McEwan was at it on C4 News yesterday - the public like Brown for being a bully apparently) the left’s willingness to jeer at disability when the victim is a Tory, only reveals yet again what a bunch of utter hypocrites they have become.
154 Gwynfa…same could be said for Cameron. Conditions may never repeat themselves so favourably for the Conservatives (unpopular Gov’t, two dodgy wars, deepest recession for generations) 37%
Good morning all and on thread, could it simply be that punters cans ee and hear what is happening in the country. When lifelong Labour supporters go on national TV and accuse the Prime Minister of being a liar, i.e. giving an oscar worthy performance at Chilcott, tell him that they could not vote for Labour while he remains PM and basically question every assertion he makes, it takes a brave person not to “smell the coffee” and realise that the end is nigh for this Labour government.
Clearly the punters believe the pollsters are heading for a 1992 moment, with the exception perhaps of Angus Reid.
152
yes I am. Anyone but Brown, even though Cameron is yet to convince. Brown doesn’t deserve re-election, almost literally anyone else would be better.
On the key issue of the deficit I agree with the tories.
163, you missed out expenses and a biased media.
157. If this is your idea of a valid arugment Tim, no wonder the ‘equality’ agenda has been such a dismal failure under Labour.
164 Easterross - spot on. We over analyse on here sometimes and that leads us to see things or ask questions that simply aren’t on the minds of ordinary voters.
The two Old Labour peeps on the PS were speaking for an awful lot of people.
I thought the ‘working to rule’ remark from the consultant was very revealing and depressing.
Mike! you should be in Dorset this morning its superb here. When you sell off PB will you buy a place in Bridport?
Now I’m really worried, I’m nodding in agreement to a Melanie Phillips column.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1257940/MELANIE-PHILLIPS-MELANIE-PHILLIPS-Whatever-A-TV-debate-leaders-wives-hosted-Richard-Judy.html
It comes to us all I suppose.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5842238/osborne-colours-the-water-blue.thtml
George Osborne has long been in the City’s crosshairs, and criticism peaked last week when less than a quarter of a City panel believe he has the mettle to be Chancellor. Today, Osborne fights back in the FT, with a piece co-penned by Jeffrey Sachs. The pair set out an argument for immediate ‘frugality’, rather than ‘cuts’, and damn Brown’s economic policy as short-term politicking:
‘We are sceptical that a sustainable economic recovery can be based on either reinflating the sectors that have declined or believing future job creation can come simply from the public sector payroll.’
There are lots of reasons for the lack of movement to NOM.
1. The awfullness of Brown - Is it really credible that when faced with the ballot paper anyone who’s wavering a little will think Brown.
2. The dire straits the country is in - we’ve spent huge sums of money under Labour and we’ve managed to get lots and lots of new red tape, extra help for administrators, more apprentice form fillers and increased local beauracracy. The real benefits of all this massive spending are almost zero. Now the problem is that they’ve saddled us with a stalled economy and a debt that will take decades to deal with.
3. The curious behaviour of YouGov - they’ve led the way in driving down the Tory lead, but the adjustments seem so big as to be almost incredible.
4. UNS - I think that there’s a general feeling UNS is overstating Labour at least a little (have enjoyed the articlaes here about it)
5. Last years Locals - Labour do as badly as they did suggests to me at least that their core support is smaller than they think.
The only effect of the recent polls for me is that I’ve stopped building a position on a total Labour wipeout.
167 - So your complaint boils down to Con Home pushing an anti Tory narrative.
Every day we go a little further into fantasy world.
Good Morning PBers !!
Only two days to the launch of the Jack W General Election Service !!
You lucky lucky people !!
Meanwhile …. On Thread. A significant market move to a hung parliament will be presaged by at least three of the following four events :
1. The Con-Lab lead narrowing to 4% or less in three or more polls.
2. The Con figure hitting the mid thirties in three or more polls.
3. The LibDems moving north from 20-22% in three or more polls.
4. A significant Conservative wobble bottom event.
Good morning good people of PB.
I humbly suggest that the polls are not convincing punters because bettors struggle to meet Labour supporters who give a convincing case for 5 more years of the Rt Hon J G Brown leading this fine country.
Perhaps Mr Ben or Tim would care to share some positive thoughts from Labour HQ?
Give us all a lift with their vision for a Brown future.
A reminder of what awaits those Tory councillors who are working so hard to get Dave elected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/7444828/Nicolas-Sarkozys-party-humbled-by-the-left-in-French-regional-elections.html
Do not ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you.
173 - The Conservative bottom has wobbled several times. I think the first three of your suggested events are significantly more important than the last.
The ultimate ‘bottom wobble’ event would be the ditching of the boy Osborne in favour of Ken Clarke. That would make for a Tory landslide.
Redcliffe@45, your theory about the pound is about to be tested. It has lost a cent and a half against the dollar since 7am, and is under 1.10 against the euro - again a steep steady decline since 7am.
Not sure why? Lots of German traders getting up at 8am, their time, to short our beloved quid?
We will see if you are right - that the BoE wades in at 10am to save the sinking pound - in about 15 minutes.
175 - Ah the good men of the shires, willing to lay down their lives for the good of the country.
Twas ever thus, Coldstone.
163 Of course, and there are certainly some seriously delusional Tory posters with wild talk of landslides here on pb.com.
But, I think you will find that there are a large number of seriously delusional LibDem supporters, as well. For example, in Wales, there is talk of the LibDems targeting Wrexham, or Newport and Swansea seats. I don’t think they will take any of these seats. In fact, I bet the LibDems will go backwards in Swansea West, as Iraq is less of an issue in the University dominated parts of the constituency this time round.
I think the LibDems will do very well to keep their losses in Wales to two seats. Montgomeryshire, B & R and Ceredigion are all very vulnerable.
I don’t think the point I am making is very controversial. There are very few “safe” LibDem seats (unlike the Tories or Labour). Once voters start to shift, a party with few safe seats is uniquely vulnerable to the loss of a few per cent of its vote.
174. the only conclusion can be that due top the credit crunch NOM Labour supporters are struggling to release equity from their homes to have a period of no more boom and bust to inflate the growth of the tory price
The currency will continue to fluctuate. I know of some hoteliers in the south of England who will be delighted with the impending parity of the roublepound with the drachmaeuro.
If I were to consider buying M&S shares I would read the accounts and analyse the data. However, I would also visit its stores and chat to the sales staff to help me form a view regarding trading and footfall.
Political punters are no different. They have seen the accounts (polls) but are trusting the other information that surrounds them.
169..Coldstone..I can confirm that further eastwards along the great Dorset coast that the sun shines from a cloudless sky in Bournemouth too…many a holiday was spent in West Bay and Eype…and can thoroughly recommend it (although I prefer the golden sands of my home-town rather than the pebbly beaches down there)
173 - Better’s Adjusted Combined Knowledge - Probabilities About Specific Situations At General Elections?
179 - Ah, but Gwynfa. You forget that the Liberal Democrats always look doomed in opinion polls. They will get a lift when in the news as they must when the election is called.
I concur that they will fall back, but am not as bearish as you as to their prospects.
177 - It’s Monday, it’s 9.44 and ir Seans Currency Hysteria Hour.
Same repeats on every week.
178
They won’t see it like that when it happens, it’ll be ‘Cameron and Osborne pair of wan*ers cost me my seat, I’m off too UKIP’
Those were the days!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/tv-and-radio/2010/mar/15/kenny-everett-bbc-to-make-biopic
Seem to remember that the Tories were’nt to keen on him when he came out.
171 “The only effect of the recent polls for me is that I’ve stopped building a position on a total Labour wipeout.”
Agree on that. Losing the right lost them the chance of a really big win imo but the general tide is still there as long as they stop actively being rubbish - assuming it’s not deliberate to let McDoom win.
Gordon coming up on Woman’s Hour R4 - starts after 10:00 news
*
o Eric Pickles MP, Chairman of the Conservative P…
o BBC News
Mr Pickles said he wanted to hear the prime minister clearly condemn the BA strike, and called for the Labour party to stop accepting funding from Unite whilst the dispute is ongoing.
“I want to hear the prime minister condemn his mate, Charlie Whelan, who is after all the very epitome of the forces of hell,” he said.
“I want to see the prime minister condemn the strike, and I want him to stop taking money from Unite.
“(Brown) owes it to the British people to make clear that his hand is not being held because the Labour party are in hoc to the union.”
182. I refer to my comment above and Mark Senior’s - there is a risk that indignant blue leaning punters are keeping the Con maj price down as they cannot comprehend the madness of voting for Brown - but people still will do.
How many is the question - will it be 1992 reversed or a Canadian wipe out ?
172. I’m saying ConHome got their copy from the Sunday Telegraph which led their poll story with:
“David Cameron suffers a fresh blow today with a new opinion poll showing the Tory lead over Labour falling to a two year low”. (nothing about being equal to a recent poll BTW).
An easy and understandable mistake for Tim Montgomerie to make.
David Roe @176: The ultimate ‘bottom wobble’ event would be the ditching of the boy Osborne in favour of Ken Clarke. That would make for a Tory landslide.
Another good example of the cards that Cameron still has to play, if he’s bold enough. It might set off a “panic” narrative and help Brown. But it probably wouldn’t, and it could have a big upside for Cameron.
But does Cameron want a majority enough to gamble, or would he rather minimize the downside risk, even if it means making do with a minority government?
176 David Roe. Ah but you’re talking of a ‘Conservative bottom wobble’ event whereas I’m talking of a ‘Conservative wobble bottom’ event.
You really need to research the Tory arse in more detail David. Seasoned viewers have had much to go on since the elevation of Eric Pickles. No finer sight in Conservatives circles than a reformed communist in his mini-thong beating his chest and denouncing political opponents as lightweights !!
As for ‘Our Ken’ he’s shown plenty of bottom over the years and I agree with you that Cameron needs to replace Osborne with ‘Our Ken’ pronto !!
186. Clearly you aren’t reading my more vituperative posts if you think THAT was hysterical.
Redcliffe’s theory is interesting. He reckons “British institutions” are buying the pound at 10am, durings it now regular periods of weakness. This is one of them.
If he is right sterling will stop falling in about six minutes.It’s rare and refreshing that we get to test a theory so easily and clearly on pb - rather than, say, having to listen to dreary, endless, droning, spirit-crushing, lame-brained, half-assed smears about “Gideon” and Hague.
183 Aaron. Very possibly.
193. blue blue blue since 9.59
http://www.igindex.co.uk/
190 - I am prepared to believe Montgomerie didn’t read the third paragraph down.
The seven-point Conservative lead equals the narrowest advantage in any ICM poll for the last two years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7436877/Conservative-lead-over-Labour-falls-to-two-year-low.html
162.PollyB, I hope that view that the public like Brown being a bully is not based on the YouGov daily tracker during that very torrid week for Labour. John Prescott of all people was the main Labour politician sent out to defend Brown in about the most hectoring and thuggish way possible.
Then we were treated to Lord Mandelson of all Labour politicians and Lords being utilised to lead the attacks on Lord Ashcroft. I suspect that both will end up proving to be a net negative for Labour during this period. What were they thinking?
BenM, your thesis that the Apocollapse occurred solely because of the banking sector’s sins is simplistic and naive.
Sure there were mistakes, and capitalism, being a process of managed chaos, is prone to sudden and dramatic corrections, like fires in a healthy forest.
But this particular disaster has its roots in leftwing political meddling in the market: i.e. when Clinton, in a fit of liberal do-gooding, asked US financial institutions to lend to “sub prime” mortgagees - people with bad credit ratings. Many if not most of these people were African American, hence the policy.
This truth is often overlooked. Who knows why. Either way the motives were noble. But the outcome was calamitous.
Stuart.134. I think you are being overly pessimistic about the Tories particularly in Perthshire. The argument about keeping them out this time may not work as well as in the past if more people want a change of Government. On the other hand I would agree that these are both long shots and that the odds being offered are miserly in the extreme.
paulwaugh
Ahead of budget, @edballsmp announces details of school funding. 2.7% cash inc in pupil funding for 2011-13.
Replacing any of the main crew now would accentuate the actual problem which is / was going all incoherent and muddled after Christmas.
Cameron hasn’t got the guts to sack his best-mate Osborne…that’s the problem and he looks like a weak leader. The expenses scandal gave him the opportunity to dump some of the troublesome old dinosaurs..but the Eurosceptics are keeping quiet hoping that they’ll get into power. He can’t make Ken Clarke chancellor because he knows what the right of the party will think of that
198. And in the Uk - it was Chav mortgages and middle class buy to let empires that brought it down.
Brown reaped the reward of the bubble - no wonder he didn’t pr1ck it.
More twaddle from Coldstone..miles of it today nothing about why we should vote for five more years of Gordon tho..
142. It wasn’t Yougov. It was 5th March on Anthony Well’s site between two yougov’s. Con 36 Lab 34 LD 18
138 - I learn something new every day.
Today, I have discovered that I, a small-business-owner, am an “idiot”, guilty of “eye-popping rightwing hubris”, and responsible for the financial crash.
For some years now, I have suspected that your government has regarded me as a borderline criminal. The mounting tax-bills, soaring business rates, the barrage of regulation - you know, those things that governments and large businesses can cope with, but are extraordinarily time-consuming for little folk like me.
Our business is well-run, moderately profitable (’profit’ is a vile word, isn’t it?) and we are, unlike the economy, not geared to the eyeballs. If I had known that I was going to cause the global financial meltdown, I would have done something useful, like training to be an anti-smoking coordinator instead.
I would like therefore to apologise for my sins; to apologise for my “eye-popping rightwing hubris” and lack of gratitude to Gordon. My attempts to be relatively self-sufficient and to provide good jobs for the dozen or so people who work for me were clearly reckless and have brought the world economy to its knees.
200: Who needs a spending review? they’ve clearly had one already!!
202
Why on earth should he sack him?
gabyhinsliff
gordon on #womanshour why do Piers i/v? ‘i felt how ppl understood me was being mediated by newspapers’ - ie, was a response to bad coverage
@205 it was BPIX Mail on Sunday
GO is only a problem for voters that wont vote blue anyway - and will be a better CoTE than cuddly Ken anyway. If it was 1997 KC I’d agree but not now.
@210 - sorry link
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Again I am drawn to comment.
’spiral of silence’? What is that when we are all at home?
A total invention by a pollster is what it is. If there is a silence what evidence is there since by definition no one is talking about it? Who is more embarrassed than who when it comes to giving a vote?
There is in fact then a 9 point lead. Ignoring the cone of silence there is of course still a trend - but when it comes to suggesting actual figures - well polls are as good as saying ‘we don’t know’.
Thanks for the space to comment.
Christina D 151/Antifrank 105. Funny that. I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the Tories tendency to overestimate their ability to win seats from the Lib Dems grows in inverse proportion to the Tories standing in the polls.
The question is, whose one eyed view has the greater peripheral vision?
Fraser Nelson in the ‘Guardian’ opines on the prospects for a Con-LibDem government :
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/14/lib-con-team-fun-clegg
206 Clarence
Very good post.
(Except that it’s a waste of time talking to BenM, he’s like a Branch Davidian cult member from Waco)
150. These breathy posts about Cameron’s Dad are a bit embarrassing. The poor man’s not a WAG
205 - BPIX.
82
What is much more interesting is that a week ago the YouGov sub samples has the NATS on 30 per cent. On Thursday the Sun should have published their fourth weekly addition of sub samples which would have shown the NATS rising to mid 20s with Tories in mid to high teens.
This awkward result was avoided by the simple expedient of non-publciation!
YouGov’s arrangement with The Sun is proving problamatic for their reputation.
216 - You mean D-d.
201. True. The Tories are still ahead - just - so there is no need for terminal panic - yet. And replacing Osborne at this late stage would be a panicky move, no question.
But Edmund in Tokyo is right. It’s one of the cards Cameron can play if the polls deteriorate further. The other, as he says, is to offer some form of referendum on Europe.
The Osborne card would have to be played sooner rather than later - in the next fortnight or so. The referendum trump could be a dramatic game changer, and can be played any time; maybe later is better for more impact - if Cameron looks like losing in the last few days before the GE.
gabyhinsliff
PM on #womanshour: harriet harman getting namechecked about once a minute. starting to sound like a human shield
I think Osborne has a presentation problem through looking a bit youth parliament and it makes sense for ZNL to aim at that given how little they’ve got to work with but it’s minor compared to the damage changing any of the main players would do at this stage.
imo
I love the way that the lefties on here tim, benm, roger, coldstone, etc ad nauseum constantly give “serious” advice on how to structure the Conservative party.
It’s as if they think that anyone to the right of their pinko commie faggot position will actually believe them. D’oh
Oh wait a moment, they’re pinko commie faggots so they do believe that.
@206 - Clarence, on the contrary it’s people like you that are the backbone of this country who given the chance will help it stand straight again. You’ve nothing to learn from the poster @138.
gabyhinsliff
PM on #womanshour was that a hint that surplus cash due to lower’n'expected unemployment cd go into public spending? sounded like it
So far, Redcliffe was right - the pound has bounced back since 10am.
Curious. I’m not sure it is a vast conspiracy hatched by traders to defend the goverment. But one has to wonder, if this is British institutions supporting sterling, how long they can continue doing it.
If a Greek bailout occurs, we will be next in the firing line.
I know the ft doesn’t like you pasting of its site, but this is a blog not an article.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/03/was-it-the-sun-wot-lost-it/
223 - Abolutely right Blue Rog.
Just ask Ladbrokes, they can’t get anyone to back Grayling due to those pinko commie faggots.
Do you bet much up in those log cabins by the way?
All this talk of raw meat trump cards that Cameron may play is utter fantasy. Cameron isn’t going to lurch to the right as he would have done so long long before now if he was going to.
198.
I see that SeanT has bought into the self-serving Republican talking points which were raised to hide their guilt in creating the Credit Crunch which, fortunately, happened on their watch (unlike over here where the notional centre-left government is going to get a deserved kicking for following through on a centre-right economic policy).
Rightwing ideological zeal for foolish de-regulation was the master of the financial armageddon we have witnessed in the last three years. In Britain, because this has come on top of thirty years of witlessly allowing our heavy industry to be flogged off so rich people can save a few extra pounds on their tax bills, we are going to find it incredibly tough to drag outselves out of the mire.
Conservative economics has broken anglo-saxon economies the world over. The only surprise is that there are still people around - three years on remember! - deluded enough to still buy in to the entirely discredited neo-liberal crap.
Will reality ever intrude on their fanciful dreams one wonders?
227 - Some of us have been saying that on here for months.
I need to buy Rebekah Wade and Tom Newton Dunn a drink, they made me a lot of money
I’ve said it before…I don’t know what it is about him - he just looks…errmmm well out of his league..like a startled rabbit in the headlights of an on-coming bus. Unfortunately for him (and indeed for us all) that bus is being driven by Ed Balls. Osborne does himself no good by talking tough on the dreadful state of the nation’s finances and then soundly refusing to say where the cuts are gonna be made…we come back to the old line..he looks shifty
“Whitehall sources say that the manifesto cannot be “signed off” until after the Budget next week, which will set out some of the spending constraints for the Government. Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is determined to remove any uncosted pledges in the manifesto that might undermine the Government’s credibility on cutting the deficit.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7061846.ece
Meanwhile Ed Balls makes new spending commitments, and Gordon Brown says windfall revenue will be spent.
Joined up government
@232. Darling won’t say were cuts will be made either, not until an Autumn spending review by which time he’ll be long gone.
231. I made £50 last month on a Zak Goldsmith/tax bet. Due to arrive in the post any day now…
228 They would’nt bet with you Tim…Short arms deep pockets..
iaindale
After his car crash on yesterday’s Politics Show, Gordon Brown is currently doing a brilliant job at losing the womens’ vote on Woman’s Hour
230 - Utter and total crap.
re 205 & 217 I always links BPIX and YouGov together.
re 239 - as was stated in the piece.
I do wish people would read what I write before criticising.
gabyhinsliff
grr. the right Qs to GB on defence funding is not ‘did you agree every UOR?’ but ‘did you then claw back cost thru efficiency savings’….
tim has abolished losing bets - no more tory torn up betting slips - no return to the mistakes of the past, no more boom and bust…
234..Yes I know…. but the bottom line is that Labour are closing the gap on the Tories and it’s Cameron who’s gonna have to do something to stop that….
What’s odd is the government seems to be saying they’re going to put off cuts whereas the people i know in the public sector say it’s already started.
What was the genesis of the very odd Evening Standard story last week about how Osborne had agreed he could be moved anytime cameron wanted and would accept it with good grace. I understand the Iconography, a reverse Granita, ” I’m not a loon like Brown” but who placed the story that week and why ?
gabyhinsliff
gordon on #womanshour: will u resign if u dont get a majority? ‘i’ll keep going because i want a majority. i’ll keep going.’
214 Jack W - Not a snowflake’s chance in hell, I would have thought. Fraser doesn’t seem to have noticed that it’s not just Clegg’s decision; if it were, a coalition might make sense in some circumstances. But there’s no way Cable or Huhne, let alone the Mark Senior (Old Labour, Southern Branch) wing of the party, would ever accept a formal coalition the Tories. The LibDems would split straight down the middle.
(And that’s without considering from the Tories’ point of view).
240 - Mike.
Can you make any sense of the Spreads.
Look at the Lib Dem figure on Extrabet for example.
Oops
http://order-order.com/2010/03/15/how-to-p155-0ff-the-locals/
Patrick’s “client state” theory is largely mistaken, though I wish it wasn’t - there is polling data that shows that Labour isn’t doing better among doctors, teachers, nurses, police and other large groups of public sector workers, and certainly my own experience is that it’s not necessarily good news when the canvassee says, “Well, I’m a teacher…”
The reality is that there there is a floor of around 30% in the support for both major parties which is only penetrated in exceptional circumstances, such as the expenses scandal. (I wrote an article about why Labour gets at least 30% for pb.com a while back, though our rating plummeted below 30% almost immediately I wrote it.)
The result for both major parties in 2005 was already unusually low, and in Labour’s case driven down by Iraq. Labour’s current rating in the low 30s doesn’t reflect public sector loyalty or enthusiasm for anything much, it’s just a return to instinctive sympathies when there’s not an obvious reason to think that the other parties are vastly better.
On Mike’s question, I do think that punters’ personal experience is relevant. Many contributors here, by their own admisssion, simply don’t know anyone who is a Labour supporter - perhaps their friends think them so rabid that they avoid mentioning it, or they instinctively associate with like-minded people, or they live in an area where Labour is weak.
As they’re convinced that Labour is rubbish and everyone they talk to thinks so and they’ve got money on it, they’re really reluctant to believe contrary evidence and any reason to doubt the polls is seized upon, even when it’s quite minor. For example, take the spiral of silence discussion upthread. It’s worth 2% (Mike) or 1% (Sean Fear) and it’s not (contrary to PfP’s assumption) new. Scenarios are instantly constructed about why this might be false, but ICM have been doing this for a long time and it’s fairly reliable - it’s not just shyness but the tendency of ‘political gravity’ to pull uncertain voters back to their habitual column on polling day.
I don’t think NOM is in the bag by any means - the Budget and the leader debates are obvious queries. But the PBR didn’t do Labour any harm and I’m not sure the Budget will; betting on Cameron living up to expectations of victory in the debates may be risky too. So I’d have thought NOM should objectively be a narorw favourite.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7445010/Race-horse-Kauto-Star-better-known-than-Nick-Clegg-survey-shows.html
An embarrassing artivle. However, it is actually embarrassing for Ladbrokes and the Telegraph. It’s a survey of Ladbrokes customers so of course they are going to know who Kauto Star and Denman are (you’d need no interest in National Hunt racing to not know them).
It will not come as a ‘major blow’ re the Telegraph as it’s not a survey of average voters.
It is not a survey of ‘the man in the street’ re Ladbrokes.
Very poor from both groups.
BenM, your smelly Marxist stupidity is almost boundless, but I thought this was a particularly impressive ball of dung:
“In Britain, because this has come on top of thirty years of witlessly allowing our heavy industry to be flogged off so rich people can save a few extra pounds on their tax bills”
So you think the future of Britain is a return to “heavy industry”. What do you suggest? Smelting? Perhaps we need more iron foundries.
In which case we will need to pay the people who work in your vast new factories the same wage as the Chinese get in their factories, so we can compete.
Do you spot the problem? Probably not.
222 Osborne’s presentation problem is not the youth parliament look but the tiny tots nursery look .
I wonder if we’ll get the regular Populus monthly poll tonight?
“Words are cheap and loud.” Nick Palmer.*Objectively* there is a different favourite.
nomaj 2.82-2.86
conmaj 1.72-1.74
labmaj 14.0-14.5
Not sure what to make of the fact that the BBC have chosen to follow Brown with a discussion of tits.
Ladbrokes survey did however show that Mr Smithson, the man, was 100,864 times more well known than Mr Smithson, the horse.
252.
Strange that Germany seems to manage?
Beware cretinous rightwing fatalism - wrecking a modern advanced economy near you soon!
3. The most remarkable thing in all this for me is the electorate’s refusal to accept that cuts on a truly massive scale and for many years to come are desperately required to avoid economic catastrophe, no ifs or buts about it. No pain, no gain.
by Peter from Putney March 15th, 2010 at 2:36 am
The electorate and the mass of the people are being driven by the concerted efforts of the Left Wing media, in print, Radio and TV to view the cuts as solely a Tory policy. This will come back to haunt them but the deliberate damage has been done.
It remains to be seen wether the bulk of voters return to their senses before election day. dawns
Interesting Archive on 4 on saturday night on the History of TV debates. Could have been edited down from 60 to 45 minutes perhaps but a gentle introduction to the issues. It pointed ( I thought ) to the oppertunity for Nick Clegg as the history seemed to show previously unknown candidates could get big boosts if they didn’t bugger it up.
253 Hi Mark…any views on why we should vote for another five years of Gordon..He certainly looks mature..is that the measure of the man..
249, I am not a car owner, but isn’t there something weird about someone who drives a Yaris and then puts on a £5k (apparently) personalised plate? It’s like driving a Zonda and shopping at Aldi.
I will listen to Gordon Brown on Women’s Hour later. I think Brown’s key problem, alluded to on here, is that people don’t particularly want to listen to him. I will have to push myself to listen to the UK’s PM because I know the content will be structured around a myriad of statistics, an inability to take blame for any problems and the creation of as many false dividing lines as possible. I may be a Conservative, but I cannot see how anyone finds that engaging.
The Cameron programme last night proved I feel that in the campaign that his personality will be a real winner. The key thing is now to push home the four policy themes set out in his spring conference speech. I think the public like the man; but do want to hear more about what he stands for.
With this in mind, I have no idea when the next round of Party Political Broadcasts are - but what do people think of the Conservatives just focusing on explaining two or three key policies and not having the typical PPB captions of the leader meeting and greeting and the public saying what a great man he is?
For example:
PPB opens with Cameron in his office.
He begins with an acknowledgement that as the election draws near you (the public) rightly want to know what we are about and what we will do in government. Possibly acknowledge that this has not always been as well communicated as it could be (the public may like this honesty against a PM who takes little responsibility for failings). But note that despite this a lot of thought has gone in to policy. Reel off our own tractor stats of the work done on policy - How many reports published? How many consultations undertaken? How many new experts onboard etc? Draw the intro to a close with a summary of the four themes, that it is time for a change, repeat the “5 more years of Brown line” and that we are ready for government. Then say in the following few minutes I want to outline our ‘education policies’.
The focus solely on Gove outlining perceived labour failings from the Blair ‘Education, Education, Education’ promise. Outline the Swedish model in its simple principles i.e. parent power, headteacher power and so forth. Various videos mixed in where needed.
Conclude PPB with a link to tory party website where other policy videos can be seen.
Would it work or shall I not give up my day job yet?!
247. I don’t think the Lib-Dems will join a coalition with either party. Instead they will wait and see which party emerges with the greater number of seats and then agree to abstain on that parties first Queens Speech/Budget thus ensuring the minority government can survive its first two formal hurdles. They will then judge each policy on its merits thereafter.
258: Becuase Germany didn’t trash it’s industry in the 1970s through industrial unrest and producing cars like the giants like British Leyland which were a load of crap?
Want to know why we don’t have industry? Look at the unions. they’re to blame. And they’re doing what they’ve always done now to BA.
Look –Brian Paddick had equal air time with Boris and Ken in the London Mayorals and it destroyed him.
Now bearing in mind that the Lib Dems are a myth based organisation i expect the same to happen to Clegg when he gets in the spotlight.
258. German industry has had a consistent reputation for excellence maintained since the 19th century. Ours declined since 1900, and was almost wrecked by socialism and nationalisation in the 60s and 70s.
What destroyed the indigenous British car industry? Bad management, the grasping lefty unions, and Labour’s insane creation of British Leyland, etc.
From there on we had no choice but to retool ourselves as a more hi-tech services-oriented economy. And indeed we were doing quite well at this, until 2001, when Labour started heaping more public spending on the economy than it could safely maintain.
The future for all industrial western countries, even and maybe especially Germany, is pretty bleak, given the fierce competition they will soon face from China, India and Brazil, able to produce quality goods at a fraction of the cost.
In that light, we need another Thatcherite revolution, to drastically slim down our public sector and re-invigorate our hi tech and service industries. It is our only hope.
There ends your GCSE economics lesson. Now do your homework.
I wonder whether the problem that PB posters have regarding the Polls and why the Tories are not showing better is because you are living in something of a cocoon. Believe it or not, there is a real world out there beyond PB world where 90% of people live in relative comfort. It’s a world where people rely on tax credits and don’t want to lose them, where public spending isn’t a billion here or a billion there, it’s whether or not the school has after-school clubs or not, or whether the nursery is subsidised. It’s not even whether we have a high-speed rail link ..as long as the bus turns up on time then that’s just fine.
They’re not daft, they know that anti-social behaviour and vandalism won’t be any different regardless of which party is in charge. They’ve given up on reporting petty crime because it’s a hassle. It’s a world away from inheritance tax on £1 million pound estates. Politicians (both real and would-be’s) are guilty of concentrating polls and focus groups and wooing “middle England” where everyone says the election will be won - they’ve forgotten that the so-called big issues mean not a jot to most people. Give them their tax credits, their regular buses, their nursery placements and a reasonable rate of tax on their earnings and they’ll happily vote for that.
108.”see that ChristinaD and Plato, two of the prime Sarah Brown baiters”
How many times in the last week have you attempted to smear various female Tory/Tory leaning posters* with that kind of nasty name calling? Anyone would think that you had decided to redouble your efforts to attack these individual posters in an attempt to derail a negative Brown/positive Cameron theme if they have the temerity to comment on from a female perspective on a political betting site in the run up to this GE campaign?
This is not robust debating of the merits, or not, of either politician or the input from their spouses in a highly charged political campaign. Its straight out of the New Labour handbook book of smearing your opponents to try to undermine them or their views in the hope that will have less traction in the narrative on here. And its the sheer hypocrisy coming from the one poster who spends much of his time on here baiting other posters in the most nasty unedifying way possible. Is this what PB.com is going to be reduced too on every thread, inferring the girls on here are witches and Sarah Brown baiters, are hoping if you repeat it often enough that it will then stick?
FWIW, I genuinely believe that Sarah Brown is about the most highly political and personally ambitious spouse we have seen in modern day UK politics. And to understand that point is to understand one of the main reasons that Brown is still in his current position as PM and Labour leader. It was she who pursued Brown, and not the other way around, and its also why she succeeded in getting that ring on her finger where others had failed. And she did so by deploying her not in considerable PR skills at time when Brown was desperately trying to make himself more human in yet another attempt to oust his boss in No10. Sound familar to what is again happening over the last 12-18 months?
So sorry if I am that bit more skeptical of her role in the Brownite political machine over this period when Brown was most in danger of being ousted from his job by his party. This has been a very clear strategy that was flagged up way back when the McBride scandal broke.
Samantha Cameron on the other hand, is much more of typical leaders wife who wants to play a ’supportive’ role in her husband’s campaign. There is some very clear water dividing the two women in this campaign, and that is very valid point to highlight as the public seek to make their choices about who is the more genuine asset as PM’s consort. They don’t like what they perceive as very political wives, and for all Cherie Blair’s faults, that is the biggest trap she fell into with the media narrative towards the end of Blair’s time in Office. And it had a very negative impact on the Blair’s towards the end of their tenure in No10, and a little unfairly IMHO, as she really was first and foremost the old fashioned supportive spouse in that regard, rather than a political individual in her own right. I wonder how much off the record briefing was aimed at her while Sarah Brown was portrayed in a more positive light? I think that was one we all missed to quite an extent, but it was probable the dry run for what we are now seeing.
*(simple add or subtract names from the list included depending on who is around posting on any given thread except Tim’s little favourites)
On the subject of the Lib Dems’ performance, frustratingly I have a piece ready to go on pb2 and can’t publish it for some reason. It won’t please the yellow corner…
258. “Beware cretinous rightwing fatalism - wrecking a modern advanced economy near you soon!”
More blame shifting. Will you Labour supporters ever accept responsibility for the mess you have made?
Gordon Brown should be due at the palace 4 weeks today.
“Oh wait a moment, they’re pinko commie faggots so they do believe that.” and…
“…your smelly Marxist stupidity is almost boundless”
I like a good, well structured put down as much as the next political nerd, but my 11 year old son could formulate a better, funnier ones than these - and he’s showing horrible signs of being a famed, SeanT po faced lefty.
I think moderation rules need to be changed. If people can’t be bothered to make their insults genuinely funny, can we please have them removed. I know that would reduce the length of the threads to under 100 comments, but it would save all of us time not having to wade through stuff that is so poor that even the ITV sitcom department wouldn’t consider it.
267 SeanT - Correct. The only point to add to your bid for an honorary doctorate in economics is that, in the shortish term (2 - 5 years) the ONLY sector of the economy which might revive sufficiently to make a significant difference is the City. It’s our USP, the only major sector where Britain has a huge advantage over much of the competition.
Banker-bashers better get used to it if they want to mitigate the effect of Brown’s disastrous management of the economy.
268
But unless we make a start on getting our budget deficit down, the IMF will stop all tax credits on day one of their rescue, as a very small start on what needs to be done.
I accept your point, and you are right, but it is critical that the tories actually explain reality to people in a way that that will listen to and understand. Tough but necessary. lala land and spending far FAR more than we can afford is really no longer an option
Bingo, got there:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/03/south-west-liberal-democrat-enigma.html
It’s my survey of the South West. I think I may have succeeded at the third attempt in my efforts to stir up controversy.
270 - Antifrank.
Before you publish have a look at the Lib Dem sell price on Extrabet.
Listened to Gordon Woman’s Hour and Jane Garvey gave him a pretty tough time as she usually does for all politicos.
He came across as smarmy, not-me-guv, tractor stats, you-should-be-grateful…his Chilcott testimony was a masterstroke, not.
Can’t see it winning him many friends or votes
257 - Is that thing still a horse, tim? I would have thought they might have found a better use for it by now!
269 “FWIW, I genuinely believe that Sarah Brown is about the most highly political and personally ambitious spouse we have seen in modern day UK politics”
Well that’s a load of rubbish, even without mentioning Ed Balls, Jack Dromey, the Wintertons or that Tory expense couple.
272. Actually, I believe its three weeks tomorrow - Tuesday April 6th. The day after Easter Monday.
273
Agree - posters should concentrate on constructive arguments like post 267
oh hang on…that’s by SeanT as well
People complain that Pb.com is too tory biased. If we removed puerile insults, the labour-leaning representation would be down to Southam Observer and Nick Palmer only…
278 - Was there ever anything he could have said that you would have approved of though? “I am resigning from Parliament and taking my Balls with me” perhaps but, come on, short of that you were always going to slag him off.
269. Well said Christina. Entirely agree with this astute post.
274. Not a likely vote winner at this election though, is it Richard? Vote Conservative. The Party for Merchant Bankers.
270 Conservative supporting poster trying to post an article saying LibDems will not do well - Quelle surprise . Perhaps it failed the objectivity filter .
re Germany - as a regular visitor there are a lot of factories not producing anything and a lot of workers on short/half weeks. Companies are asking staff to run down their accrued holiday hours.
Yes they make a lot of cars and power tools (for construction) - is anyone buying them at the moment ? Er no.
282 Thanks!
275..Jon C you’re probably absolutely right but I still do not believe that it can be done…
273. And who the F are you to change the moderation rules, you stiffnecked lefty ponce?
When you contribute a single comment that is either, funny, clever, insightful or enlightening, you may be allowed an opinion. Seeing as you are one of the most singularly boring commenters on here - even your f*cking name induces narcosis - you do not.
SeanT even the Portuguese socialist minority government made immediate cuts last week to avert the Greek scenario. No witter about not cutting to keep the recovery going. While it was not entirely convincing as a long term strategy it at least did something rather than dithering and wittering on the sidelines with fingers and toes crossed for luck and for lying.
The worry about the UK apparently sleepwalking into complete disaster is more and more in focus.
282. Maybe so Jon - but the Tory posters would be down to John O.
282 - Don’t forget Patrick, the West Ham Fan. He puts the case for Labour elegantly, rationally and without the need for puerile insults aimed at other posters and other parties.
252 Germany has had as severe a recession as we have had, and manufacturing now accounts for just 18% of German economic output.
I imagine that you thought Labour’s Alternative Economic Strategy, in the early 80s, was a good idea.
The truth is that we, and other Western nations, have lived beyond our means for years. And the money is starting to run out just as Eastern economies start to seriously compete.
After Brown’s “I will keep going” antics on Woman’s Hour, there is £33 at 10.5 on Betfair on Brown leaving between Oct-Dec 2010 (and the princely sum of £2 at 4.2 on Jul-Sep, which will presumably include the Labour conference).
If Gordon could have his way he would go to the palace the day before an election to prevent as little exposure of DC taking place as possible.
“1. The Con-Lab lead narrowing to 4% or less in three or more polls.
2. The Con figure hitting the mid thirties in three or more polls.
3. The LibDems moving north from 20-22% in three or more polls.
4. A significant Conservative wobble bottom event.”
Jack - that will need to be from different pollsters in each case, otherwise you are getting the Rasmussen type problem of one pollster perverting the overall figures.
“Gordon Brown should be due at the palace 4 weeks today.”
I’m already sat beneath the guillotine. Knit one, purl two, knit one, purl two…
286 - Since I am undecided who to vote for and until last week was more likely to vote Lib Dem than anyone else, your theory falls at the first fence. As you can see, I have tried to stick to logic, facts and figures rather than prejudice.
Defiant Brown will ‘keep going’
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has signalled that he would “keep going” as leader even if Labour fails to secure a majority at the general election.
He was speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Women’s Hour.
Asked if he would quit if he failed to get “a decent majority” he said “I’ll keep going” before being interrupted and asked the question again.
Mr Brown replied: “I will keep going. I will keep going because I want a majority.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8567880.stm
294: We’ll only become competive again until labour costs become equalised. Probably via a mixture of a decline in our relative living standards, and an increase in Asian ones. That is the ultimate impact of globalisation.
I see the “get Osborne out” campaign is back in full swing.
Edmund in Toko wrotes: It might set off a “panic” narrative and help Brown. But it probably wouldn’t
Sorry, but it certainly would. It would have done last year when SeanT started calling for it, and it only gets worse with time. Changing you SCOTE less than two months before an election is a sign of panic, and there’s no way the BBC, Sky, Grauniad, Independent, Telegraph, Mail, etc. etc. wouldn’t portray it as such.
Gordon Browns decision line if he stays in power.
Year 1: Put of cutting the deficit because of the double dip.
Year 2: Put off cutting the deficit due to weak economic growth.
Year 3: AAA rating has gone say I will cut the deficit after the election.
Year 4: Back in recession will cut public pay by 50% emergency cut. Pound is 0.25p to the dollar. Will devalue the pound.
Year 5: will increase public sector by by 250% to try and win a fifth term.
AntiFrank
286 - Great piece, which does nothing to help end my crisis of faith i have in the lib dems.
299 - Don’t get to concerned about Mark Senior calling you a Tory. He once called me a BNP supporter.
269 - What a longwinded way of shouting “Witch!”
SeanT, your entire posting strategy is based on the flawed premise that you are amusing. You are almost Brownian in your lack of self knowledge.
300. I suspect Brown thinks the Tories will fail to secure a majority and end up forming a minority government. In which case Brown will attempt to stay on as leader of the Opposition under the pretext that there will be another election within a year and possibly a lot sooner than that.
Labour would be completely insane to let him do so, but given this is the Labour Party we’re talking about you never know….
285 Paul L - You are right. Doesn’t alter the underlying reality, however, and any politicians who might end up anywhere near the levers of power would be wise to remember that. Politics isn’t only about scoring cheap points.
306 - SeanT can be very amusing though. He’s just been off-form recently, that’s all.
302: It’s not about what you do, it’s about how its portraied. The idea that the BBC, Grauniad etc would somehow treat it as being a good strategic decision which improves tory chances is laughable. The headlines would entirely be of TORY PANIC.
Osborne stays. At least until the election.
269 ChristinaD - well said.
Frankly, I find the ‘tim’ who goes out of his way to bait female posters quite sad.
My manipulation-monitor goes haywire when Sarah Brown appears, she’s very good at it however it doesn’t make what she does any more genuine.
I’m pleased that Sam Cameron came across as so normal - one less silly posh-bird stick broken in half.
Your observation about Cherie was most astute - she got a terrible caning. I never warmed to her but the smears were endless.
304. TSE: Don’t get to concerned about Mark Senior calling you a Tory. He once called me a BNP supporter.
Stuart Dickson does that to lots of posters all the time.
And a good thing too that we don’t believe what the usually ill-informed media is trying to tell us.
LondonStatto @302, OK, say you’re right and the media would universally portray switching in Clarke as a sign of panic. Even then, it wouldn’t necessarily hurt him.
For the media to pan somebody for doing something, they have to talk about it a lot. As The Sun found when they tried to hit Brown over his letters to the relatives of dead soldiers, the public are then going to make their own minds up about the thing they’re talking about.
What they’d be talking about would be the return of the only serious politician in Britain right now with cross-party appeal.
280. Jonathan
yeeeeees, but how are those examples relevant to Sarah Brown, insomuch as the examples you give are sitting MPs (or prospective MPs) whereas Ms Brown isnt.
313, the media can be very well-informed. The problem is that spin merchants are doing the informing, and many journalists are like credulous children.
Just been reading Dale’s write up of the McD interview with Cameron. It contained this.
“Richard Bacon tweeted…
Trevor McDonald is a Jedi Master at getting no revelations out of his guests.”
is this a contender for the least self aware comment in the world award?
Get Osborne out only works if voters know who Osborne is. Most I suggest have no idea.
Anyway, he has no policies according to Labour so removing him will make no difference.
If Osborne has to go due to non performance, then Brown and Darling should have gone years ago.
Nice to see illogicality reign.
It’s like the right wing of the Tories : who have learned Nothing from three successive election defeats.. (The world has changed a lot since Mrs Thatcher)
310. Slackbladder: Osborne stays. At least until the election.
Though I’m not so sure about after it. He’s layable on Betfair at 1.4 and that looks value to me.
SeanT may not be very amusing, but he is correct in sayin that this country’s future lies in technology and innovation. Intellectual property is the future. We need to learn to create it, manage it and exploit it much more effectively than we do at present.
The government’s recent IP-based tax changes will help at the margins, but the real challenge is to grow a new generation of engineers and other scientists who combine technical knowledge with some level of business acumen. It is also vital that failure is not punished but seen as part of the learning pricess and that we give much more rein to VC and private equity investors.
We retain a huge advantage over the Chinese in that thir political system means they cannot harness the full inventive potential of their population. For example, it would be impossible for a new Google to arise in the east. Enlightenment principles of questioning authority and established thought will still take us a long way if we can rebuild our educaiton infrastructure and put in palce the financial tools to facilitate measured risk-taking. Which is why I am much more interested in looking at grammar schools these days. If we can establish these with all the usual caveats (equality of access and no second class alternatives), then we do have a chance.
I retain great faith in the people of this country who are, I believe, naturally entrepreneurial and outward looking; much more so than most of our European competitors. Give them the base from which to work and they will do the business.
The Lib Dems and Labour are both doing all they can to get a hung parliament. Clegg is attacking the Conservatives in the knowledge if the Conservatives do well they will gain a majority. It is nothing to do with the Conservatives scarmongers as he likes to put it. The Lib Dem pamphlets I get go on about how all Tories want to abolish the NHS and Lord Ashcroft (Is that not scaremongering Nick Clegg????) No the Lib Dem’s narrative is the more we put people of the Conservatives the more likely we will have power in a hung parliament.
286 Amusing that Mark Senior is so blinded by partisanship that not only does he wrongly jump to the conclusion that antifrank is a Conservative, but also fails to understand the point antifrank is making: If, however, you accept my contention that no one really knows how the Lib Dems are going to do, these longer shot seats probably represent better value than the shorter-priced Lib Dem held seats.
Great article again, antifrank.
AndrewSparrow
Brown says 3x he will “keep going” [as leader] if Labour lose. Bad news for David Miliband. Full quotes on my live blog http://bit.ly/aCiZzL
287 It should also be added that the big unions in Germany have been very good at deal making to keep members in work - the poor old Spaniards thought their 1% pay deal would help restore competitiveness and what do the Germans do? yup 0% at best.
The Germans keep getting more efficient but at the same time they have their own huge structural problems - and they also have the problem of being expected to pay for everyone else. I would rather be in a financial mess and be able to work my way out of it than have to not only work my own way out of it but also stump up for all my feckless relatives who live by the seaside.
Notable that the BBC have rushed Brown’s Woman’s Hour interview onto their politics page headline. Absolutely nothing on Cameron’s interview with McDonut. Compare and contrast with the morning after T4P.
Why on Earth is anyone talking about Osborne getting the heave-ho? It’s a snowball in Hell and another diversion from what a crap CotE Gordon was/Darling is becoming.
faisalislam
astonishing graph in Bankof England’s Qtrly Bulletin showing exploding size of its balance sheet rivalled only by WW2 and Irish potatofamine
223. Blue Rog. “Oh wait a moment, they’re pinko commie faggots”
I laughed out loud! Almost up there with Tim’s photo of Dave’s D-d
Byrne, a former Labour Party chief press officer with strong links to Lord Mandelson, lashed out on Twitter this morning.
He said: ‘What the hell is a strike mongering politically discredited nutter like Charlie Whelan doing at the heart of Labour’s election campaign?’
http://www.prweek.com/channel/PublicAffairs/article/990147/Weber%20Shandwick
320 That’s a good post.
We also have the advantage of a much more business and property-friendly legal system than most other European countries.
318
Osborne was good on Today this morning, and his “we need to stop pretending and make some tangible cuts” speech at the tory conference was the only genuinely memorable one of the whole conference season.
324 KB
the German unions are pretty good. Well staffed with educated representatives and they present good arguments. Unlike UK unions they also put their members interests first.
330, is that genuine? Most surprising, if so.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-results_15-March2010.pdf
Yougov tables up, and UKIP is still on 5%
332 Jon C - if the Tories can hold their nerve and stop talking about abstract macro-economics I think they’ll be okay.
They desperately need to talk about the national credit card, spending more than your wages, putting letters in the bin - that will start to make their case for them in spades.
206. Clarence - you’ve got to realise that any half-educated left-winger with massive chips on their shoulders, such as BenM, can wander in off the street onto this board.
Well done, for not being geared. To me, the most urgent task of a new government is to help the private sector …. and not paying over-the-odds for necessary public sector workers and paying at all for unnecessary non-smoking, equality, and human rights non-jobs is an important part of this.
329 - Look, the PB Tory’s MamCam shrine weeps real blood.
http://xenophilius.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/051126_mary_vsml_7pwidec.jpg
316
Credulous children?
Nah.
These are seasoned ‘journalists’ that have got themselves a nice sinecure in the ‘lobby’.
They know exactly what they are doing and should be second against the wall when the revolution comes…
At last, Gordon Brown has been forced from the comfort of silence on the Unite/BA strike. Yesterday, Lord Adonis said that he absolutely deplored the strike” because the “stakes were too high”. Brown has done nothing more than echo those sentiments, but that is at least a step in the right direction.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5842538/brown-dithers-over-ba.thtml
EricPickles
Now that Brown says BA strike is unjustified and deplorable will he stop taking Unites money and muscle to fight the GE
321 SO
while I agree with the sentiment, the reality is that this country has had large chunks of its industrial and high skills base wrecked in the last 13 years. If you look at your nearest big city Coventry it has been kicked to hell in a handcart.It’s all very well saying about high tech jobs but Labour has no idea how to create them
From the number of responses I’ve had from my OP it would seem that I’ve touched a nerve.
I wonder which word did it
pinko?
commie?
or faggot?
It’s also hilarious to be lectured on quality of posts by a pinko commie faggot.
tim, take this shift off. You appear to be ill (hungover) you can take up the slack later. You’re really under performing at the moment.
340, not just money, but candidates too.
Unite is providing Labour’s funding, its spin merchants, its candidates and it is becoming increasingly difficult to see why Unite doesn’t just tell Labour to piss off and become a party in its own right.
The Labour Government is creeping towards becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of a union packed with leftwing dinosaurs.
298 ukpaul. Agreed.
Brown put on gardening leave
Hull City manager Phil Brown has been relieved of his duties at the KC Stadium and put on gardening leave.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/h/hull_city/8567985.stm
338. Tim I think you will actually find that is a religious statue which has nothing to do with political parties.
320 Top Post, SO.
That’s the kind of approach to Britain’s problems that I thought we were going to get when I supported Blair in 1997.
His choice of CofE soon put a stop to that….
344 - Have you been taken by surprise by this link between the Labour party and the trade unions that founded it?
344 Someone did say recently that Labour were the political wing of UNITE
321. “SeanT may not be very amusing, but he is correct in sayin that this country’s future lies in technology and innovation. Intellectual property is the future. We need to learn to create it, manage it and exploit it much more effectively than we do at present.”
I agree with this.
“For example, it would be impossible for a new Google to arise in the east.”
What about Baidu or QQ?
“321 SeanT may not be very amusing, but he is correct in sayin that this country’s future lies in technology and innovation.”
That’s an age old cliche, I think there’s more to it than that. Let’s just say you have a radical new technical idea, it’s hard to see how under any circumstances that leads to employment for others in the UK. Manufacturing and software writing can be outsourced cheaply. Service and repairs can be outsourced. Maybe there will need for face to face work. But that’s hardly new industrial revolution territory. No employment for the massess.
If you’re lucky the idea originator may benefit. How far that scales in the economy is questionable. Seems unlikely that everyone is going to have a great idea, write a book, record an album, start a new business. We need something for hard straightforward workers to get their teeth into.
Gordon Brown today demanded that the Unite union call off its planned British Airways cabin crew strike, a dispute which the Prime Minister said was “unjustified” and “deplorable”.
The intervention puts Mr Brown on a collision course with one of his party’s biggest financial backers just weeks before a general election is expected to be called.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7062249.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
341 - Coventry is beginning to fight back. Our part of the midlands is developing into a global centre for the games industry and the university is also developing international expertise in this area.
This is not a process that can happen everywhere overnight. There will be hubs and these will have to deveolop and grow - aided by tax incentives for both companies and investors. We also need to be relaxed about allowing the best people - from wherever they are in the world - to come here and work and set up etc.
However, what we really need is excellence in education. We have it at university level and we need to develop it far more lower down - hence the need to look very closely at grammar schools.
This country has ben heading in the wrong direction for more than 13 years, but there is now a priceless opportunity to do something about it. Taking my partisan hat off I can see that the mainstream left in this country really does not get it (although the much derided David Lammy does to an extent, as do people such as Lord Adonis and, I would argue, the Milibands) and so needs time in opposition as well as a change of leadership to have a serious think. Unfortunately, however, I do not think the Tories are saying anything very interesting either. But maybe they will surprise us.
338 - FOAD
291 “273. And who the F are you to change the moderation rules, you stiffnecked lefty ponce?
When you contribute a single comment that is either, funny, clever, insightful or enlightening, you may be allowed an opinion. Seeing as you are one of the most singularly boring commenters on here - even your f*cking name induces narcosis - you do not.”
Sean. Sorry, I missed your lively little effort of narcisstic rage. It raised a smile. An improvement on the previous try.
321 Southam - I agree with much of what you say, but I fear “It would be impossible for a new Google to arise in the east” is rather complacent - a bit like people saying 40 years ago that Japanese car manufacturers shouldn’t be taken seriously. There is already a lot of innovation in China, Taiwan and Korea; not yet up to Silicon Valley standards, sure, but they are making rapid progress, and the Chinese in particular have shown that they are natural entrepreneurs when given the chance.
349, no, the leftwing cronyism of funnelling taxpayers’ funds into the unions via a ‘modernisation fund’ and then reaping large donations from unions is no surprise to me, alas. Nor is the fact that the Government is helpless in the face of its union paymasters due to a narrow funding base reliant entirely on leftwing dinosaurs who are exacting a price in candidates for its continuing funding of the government.
Lots of interesting secondaries - “A future fair for all” preferred to “Vote for change”, Sarah Brown slightly preferred to Sam Cameron, Brown not generally thought responsible for deaths in Afghanistan, and a nuanced view of the Venables issue. And amusing things in the regional subsamples, but I’ll refrain from gonig there…
330: “what the hell is Charlie Whelan doing at the heart of the campaign?” I don’t actually know who is the main architect of what we’ve been doing since January (Mandy, Capmbell, Whelan, whoever), but whoever it is I’d be pleased to buy him or her a drink.
352 - New companies inevitably create new employment opportunities both in and of themselves, but also in the infrastructure they need to thrive. On top of that, they contribute money to the exchequer which can then be reinvested. And it’s not all about software. There are opportunities in many areas.
354 Try this as a starter
http://www.conservatives.com/News/News_stories/2010/03/Conservative_Technology_Manifesto_launched.aspx
346. that made my heart leap! then I realised it was not Gordon.
285. Polly. “269. Well said Christina. Entirely agree with this astute post.”
Maybe It’s the weather but this had me in stitches!!
Keep them coming Polly!!
359 - You’d better hope it isn’t Alastair Campbell. That offer would not be appreciated.
Children’s Secretary Ed Balls has described comments by the Children’s Commissioner about the James Bulger murder as “ill advised”.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Childrens-Secretary-Ed-Balls-Criticises-Comments-By-The-Childrens-Commissioner-About-James-Bulger/Article/201003315573824?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15573824_Childrens_Secretary_Ed_Balls_Criticises_
Ed Balls defied Parliament to appoint Maggie Atkinson – now they must both resign
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100029883/ed-balls-defied-parliament-to-appoint-maggie-atkinson-now-they-must-both-resign/
310. for about 2 years
353: Quelle surprise! Any bets on how long until Messrs. Woodley/Whelan call off the dogs and agree to sit round the table with BA?
351 - Baidu and QQ are derivative products. Google was a game changer, the premise of which (unfettered access to every kind of informaiton) is anathema to a totalitarian state. China is and will be good at the incremental stuff, but that still leaves the disruptive breakthroughs - almost all of which will continue to occur in western democracies in whatever area you care to mention.
*Betting Post*
I’m sure this has been pointed out before, but PP have an interesting market:
Most senior job held by a Liberal Dem:
Deputy PM @ 9.00
Defence Secretary @ 21.00
Transport Secretary @ 26.00
Chancellor of Exchequer @ 13.0
Justice Secretary @ 21.00
Culture Secretary @ 34.00
Foreign Secretary @ 15.00
Health Secretary @ 26.00
PM @ 81.00
Home Secretary @ 19.00
“Bets void should any party win the next general election with a majority”
“Ranks of seniority taken top to bottom of the cabinet from http://www.parliament.uk/mpslordsandoffices/government_and_opposition/hmg.cfm”
Am I the only one to see the value in the Home Secretary bet?
270. Christina, Personally I find both of them obnoxious. Trying to use their wives to make them look human is pathetic. Both turn up and spout a lot of drivel about their respective partners, we are now dumbed down to the hello or OK standards on politics, no wonder the country is going down the drain.
One advantage Cameron has is that he does sound like a human being when he is speaking to an audience.
77-82
And right on cue for Mark Senior comes the latest YouGov Scottish sub sample from yesterday’s Sunday Timnes
LAB 39 (-), SNP 29 (+11) TORY 14 (-3) LIB 13 (-10).
This must be a disapointment to Mark but the facts are
1) Put not any faith in sub samples.
2) YouGov’s poltical idenifiers heavily favour Labour in Scotland to a totally unjustified degree.
3) The Scottish Sun only publishes if it makes the NATS look bad and the Tories less bad!
4) Real polls (MORI) and big sub samples (Angus Reid) show LABOUR in mid 30s, the NATS on high 20s-low 30s and the TORIES and LIBS on mid to high teens.
364. GuidoFawkes
In the Observer Campbell admits he is drinking again “in controlled circumstances”
357 - The entire premise of Google is not possible in China, as we have recently discovered. The Chinese will take good iodeas, modify them and then run with them. This is what the Japanese have done for the last 40 years, and what the Koreans and Taiwanese have also learned to do. Our advantage will be in staying one step ahead. Culturally and historically this is what we have done, and it is what we can still do if we create the correct conditions.
354. Southam Observer. Look at the Dyson report, look at GO’s defence of scitech funding on Today this am, look at Gove’s plans for education… IIRC he spoke of creating grammar schools without selection.
I’ve no idea of your voting history, but I think there’s going to be plenty in the forthcoming Conservative manifesto that you could happily support.
On the subject of punters v. polls… the lead has mainly narrowed because of a firming up of the Labour vote (out of the twnties and into the thirties) rather than a massive fall in the Tory vote (early forties down to high thirties). As a punter myself, I also look at the high UKIP figures that I don’t think are sustainable and the fact that most of the severe narrowing is down to one pollster. I’m happy with my position of Tory majority 25+ and an old bet on Tories as largest party. My other current bets are Ed M as next Labour leader and a ‘funny’ on the number of women in Cameron’s first cabinet (PaddyPower).
366 - I don’t know, his “Live from the Currency Markets” routine still makes me laugh.
torybear
RT @BlueLadies: CWO is getting loads of emails from women who want to join the party & CWO after #TrevCam - More after Women’s Hour?
What’s the odds on Brown ’saving’ Britain’s favourite airline (and the poor holidaymakers) with his personal intervention in the BA strike?
367: Would hate to think that behind the scence strings were pulled for political benfits.
369 - I agree with you that the value lies there. If the Lib Dems enter a coalition, Nick Clegg will be the most senior Lib Dem. The obvious role for him to fill is Home Secretary.
You can follow the same thought process in a different way (also avoiding the risk that Nick Clegg also is made Deputy PM) by backing him as the next Home Secretary with Ladbrokes, currently 20/1 - I got on yesterday at 33/1.
342. Does anyone else want to point out to Blue rog that the word ‘faggot’ is incredibly unpleasant, outside of its culinary and fire-related meanings?
376, what’s CWO?
Con gain women!
380: Yes it is unacceptable.
SO..Further to your comments at321.At the age of 65 I decided to start a website company..the site now has circa 40k hits a day, I also invested a meagre amount of money into a medical centre.Both of these businesses are doing rather well but I had to leave the uk to make it all work. I do not have to pay taxes in the UK but i choose to.It grieves me to see these taxes squandered in such a cavalier fashion by the incompetents we have as a government today…This year I am arranging my tax payments to go elsewhere if they get back in…Do you think that is a wise decision.I do actually respect what you have to say on this site even tho I have in the past pulled you up on some of your comments
380 Faggots, mash and a pint of mild. You could not get more West Midlands than that unless you were having a balti.
380. Andrew, how do you know which of the 3 meanings he is thinking of. Methinks it says more about your thoughts than his that you jump to the worst conclusion rather than one of the less unpleasant options. Hard to believe anybody would care about one word in a blog anyway, if they are that sensitive and insecure they should give up reading anything full stop.
280 - Is that thing still a horse, tim? I would have thought they might have found a better use for it by now!
Faggots?
@359 MPMP you missed off a Labour government more likely to put us back in recession
Thinking about the prospects of a re-elected Labour
Government, compared with a new Conservative
government, which do you think would be more likely to
send Britain’s economy back into recession?
Conservatives 25
Labour 34
Which, in the greater scheme of things, is a little more important than Sam v Sarah.
380 - Well in my new capacity as PB.com Taste and Decency Manager, I shall point it out to him as well.
Blue Rog, Faggot is unacceptable and unpleasant insult.
Desist, or you shall be forcibly locked in a disused fridge with John Prescott for a period of not less than 82 hours.
MPMP = NPMP sorry.
377 I think its being set up for another “gordo to save the world” moment, hes to close to unite for it to be anything else and hopefully most people will see it as just that
385. Because having a modicum of reading skill, I construed that when preceded by “commie” and “pinko”, he’s unlikely to be referring to meatballs or a bunch of twigs.
I don’t think casual homophobia really has any place on here. I don’t like racism either if that helps.
11 months ago we had this thread on Unite’s influence.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/21/is-truelabour-right-to-worry-about-unite/#comments
“If the Conservative party had a single donor called UnitePLC that provided 40% of its donations, provided the CEO of the Conservative party, had its Head of PR setup websites for the Conservatives, hired people like Derek McPoison to run smear campaigns, unfairly influenced the process whereby many of its UnitePLC employees become Conservative MPs through donations and Uniteplc block votes in CLPs….. we would all be outraged at the infiltration of the Conservative party by a single company. But if we just changed the word Conservative to Labour in the above and deleted “plc” we arrive at the state of the Labour party.”
Do not overlook the role Unite played in funding Labourlist etc.
384 - Do they still make Banks’ mild?
daily_politics
As Tory chairman Eric Pickles deamands the PM denounce the UNITE strike at BA, we’ll look at how much money Labour gets from the unions
379 Antifrank - the ladbrokes 33/1 was definitely value. With the 18/1 PP bet however, the bet voids if there’s no hung parliament - a factor which adds considerable value to the bet!
On the other hand, the settlement-according-to-a-government-website-list term is a bit dodgy…
393 - They do.
386 tim
It’s very rare but you actually made me laugh out loud with that comment. Well done
390 - Do you seriously believe that? All the cabin crew in BA got really annoyed with management, voted overwhelmingly to strike, got a court to rule the ballot was improper, voted overwhelmingly to strike again and after all that will decide not to strike sometime this week, all to give Brown a boost in the polls?!
Well, if Brown is capable of commanding that level of devotion from thousands of cabin crew maybe he has a chance of winning this election after all.
384 SO
You forgot the mushy peas
Boris bitch-slaps Balls over Latin, with hilarious results:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/7445850/This-lunacy-about-Latin-makes-me-want-to-weep-with-rage.html
369.Clegg as Leader of the Libdems would be daft to accept anything less than Deputy Leader in those circumstances, with a nod to another Senior Libdem like Vince Cable or Chris Huhne getting a Shadow Cabinet post as well. Going from being leader of your own party to simple being one of the Cabinet is a demotion.
395 - That point about voiding the bet if no hung Parliament is very good.
I don’t like the way these video ads make my computer hang for a minute every time I refresh PB…
383 - If you are waiting for your tax money to go towards the things that I am talking about I think you will have a pretty long wait, whoever comes into power after the election. I hope I am wrong though.
401.Oops, I meant Deputy PM not leader.
399 - Top call, though I’d say they were optional and could be replaced by heavily overcooked greens of some kind.
103. My entirely subjective opinion on the ’spiral of silence’ would be that it still favours Labour. We know the unbridled enthusiasm for the Conservatives isn’t there. People are going to vote Tory, but not as they did for Labour in 1997 (with their heads in the clouds). I bet there is still a lot of reluctance to publicly declare oneself a Tory voter.
Fine by me. Looks good for a 40% share come May 6th.
At last, Labour concedes the Tory case on previewing cuts
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100029904/at-last-labour-concedes-the-tory-case-on-previewing-cuts/
Not that I have any great faith in YouGov’s weightings as used in Scotland, but the average of the last 18 YouGov Scottish sub samples (removes some of the “noise”, though not any underlying weighting errors)compared to 2005 is
SNP +4.1% : Lab +3.4% : Con +1.6% : LD -9.1%
http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2010/03/is-government-creating-double-dip-to.html
“Their election campaign of pure negative attacks on the the Tories can benefit from saying they Tories would cut more and s make things worse; even when they are doing nothing themselves.
- If this still does not work to win them the election; they are leaving a wose position for the Tories to take-over in any event.
So what can Labour to to make sure this happens?
Well much of the work is already done, in not actually doing anything and the Chancellor has been out at the weekend saying his budget will be a do nothing budget. At a time when urgent actvity and strategic change is needed, we get nothing from a Government more concerned with electronic tagging of dogs.
So it’s lose-lose for Britain and win-win for Labour.”
What was that Brown said about funding the military??
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7446247/Army-training-exercises-cut-by-a-third-to-save-money.html
“Training exercises for military operations have been cut by a third to save money at a time when the Army is engaged in heavy fighting in Afghanistan.
”
“The Daily Telegraph has also learnt that units training to deploy to Afghanistan within the next two years have had their training cut.
One battalion commander said: “We are attempting to train essentially with one hand tied behind our back.”
“The cuts will lead to further questioning of Gordon Brown’s commitment to the Services after his appearance at the Iraq Inquiry, when former generals accused him of being “disingenuous” over his claims that the Armed Forces were fully funded.”
Has summer time already started in the US? mofuse only seems to be 4 hours behind.
Dear God! Just seen the BBC front page. The bugger is going to go on forever!
Roger, you keep saying I was “more amusing two years ago”. But, funnily enough, two years ago I can’t remember your complimenting me on my comedic skills. In fact, two years ago you were complaining that I was unamusing, not as funny as I used to be, etc.
The frequency of your saying this rises in direct correlation with my biliousness towards you. Ditto Neil, et al.
And now I must return to my slightly ill daughter. I face an entire shift at the coalface of parenting. All Day Permanent Potty.
“Why aren’t the polls convincing punters?”
Because some people actually go beyond the confines of their front doors?
I love Boris’s new name for Ed the Red: Spheroids.
Caledonian Mercury - SNP ask police to investigate Steven Purcell affair
400 It is rare that an article by an elected politician can be such a joy to read!
412. Yes, started yesterday
413, can’t blame him. Brown must be the most successful Soviet sleeper in history.
[I'm joking].
[At least, I think I am].
[Though now I see it written down it all makes sense].
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8567880.stm
tim, Roger, anything to say?
I told you your addled delusion, that Brown would neatly step aside the election, was just that - delusional.
You even expected him to resign if he WON.
lol.
418: And he’s totally right Latin is important. It forms the basis for a considerable number of european languages (Italian, Frence, Spanish, and of course English), has implications for the learning of medience, science and law and the Classic Civ part of the course is more interesting than most of the history taught.
I chose to take Latin at GCSE over History.
“Has summer time already started in the US?”
Yep. They’re smarter than us.
413. What he wants to do and what he’ll be allowed to do are two different things.
Even answering that question was getting into dangerous territory, as it plays up the possibility of a Labour loss. (Why did he do it? It’s not as if he’s had difficulty ignoring questions before.).
If there’s a hung parliament and Brown wants to stay, he might be able to do so if he can keep Labour in government and continue to play off his subordinates against each other. If Labour go into opposition, it’ll be all over for him as the calls for change to become overwhelming.
422: Opps Frence=French of course.Medicine as well.
CALL US ‘DEPLORABLE’, UNION ORDERS BROWN
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/call-us-%27deplorable%27%2c-union-orders-brown-201003152559/
398. It’s not as simple as that. We’re basing our view not on the reaction of cabin crew, but the Labour involvement in the Union hierarchy. They’ll pull the strings in the end.
422, I wanted to take Latin but had to choose between that, German and classical civilisation, all of which I wanted to take. I opted for German.
Taught myself a veeery small amount of Latin. It’s tremendously complicated but very flexible. Not unlike a manic-depressive contortionist.
424. Who’s going to turf him out ? Bananaman ?
421 - This thread is all about markets that don’t seem to be moving with events. The Betfair “Gordon Brown exit date” market is just such a market. The favourite period is still April to June 2010, with 2.38 back and 2.50 lay.
With the improvements in the polling, the timetable and the general outlook of Gordon Brown, I’d put this option at closer to 10. I have been feasting on this market for months by laying April to June 2010. I’m looking forward to rich pickings later in the year, now that we’re safely past a March election and April is looking unlikely.
422 - my brother, who is a self-confessed non-academic, loved Latin at school. He did Latin GCSE instead of Geography (I think), and still says he finds it more useful than most of the other subjects he did.
429. TGOHF.
Labour’s leadership rules make it relatively easy to shift a leader who isn’t PM - it’s only when the leader is PM that it’s virtually impossible.
422 I did Latin and I know more words now almost 30 yrs later than I know of French.
Boris calls it the universal spanner - a great turn of phrase and spot on.
More Economic Treacheryp0rn for Mark Senior.
The UK’s credit rating downgrade looms ever closer:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a8c_1vtVGzD8
And Britain is generally f*cked:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=anZYsKwNSuiY
Quotes:
“The U.K. has huge problems that are not being addressed while Greece’s problems have been addressed somewhat.”
“I’ve been waiting 40 years for an export-led U.K. recovery, and I haven’t seen one yet,” said Robin Marshall, director of fixed income in London at Smith & Williamson Investment Management, which oversees about $20 billion. “A weaker exchange rate isn’t going to be sufficient to drive a recovery when external demand remains weak.”
“Richard Howard, a managing director at Dallas-based money manager Hayman Advisors LP, said a drop of 14 percent to $1.30 per pound is possible.
“The U.K. is in a pretty precarious position,” said Howard, whose hedge firm earned $500 million betting on the U.S. subprime mortgage-market collapse. “The substantial currency devaluation hasn’t improved their trade position very much, and quantitative easing hasn’t kept the 10-year yield from creeping up. That is a dangerous sign.”"
427 - Actually, it is as simple as that. Unless you want to explain how the Labour party can march thousands of cabin crew into voting for strike action and then standing down from it. Mind control techniques?
Latest rat to leave the sinking ship
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/03/labours-laura-moffatt-joins-the-chicken-run.html
More Economic Treacheryp0rn for Mark Senior.
The UK’s credit rating downgrade looms ever closer:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=a8c_1vtVGzD8
And Britain is generally f*cked:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=anZYsKwNSuiY
Quotes:
“The U.K. has huge problems that are not being addressed while Greece’s problems have been addressed somewhat.”
“I’ve been waiting 40 years for an export-led U.K. recovery, and I haven’t seen one yet,” said Robin Marshall, director of fixed income in London at Smith & Williamson Investment Management, which oversees about $20 billion. “A weaker exchange rate isn’t going to be sufficient to drive a recovery when external demand remains weak.”
“Richard Howard, a managing director at Dallas-based money manager Hayman Advisors LP, said a drop of 14 percent to $1.30 per pound is possible.
“The U.K. is in a pretty precarious position,” said Howard, whose hedge firm earned $500 million betting on the U.S. subprime m0rtgage-market collapse. “The substantial currency devaluation hasn’t improved their trade position very much, and quantitative easing hasn’t kept the 10-year yield from creeping up. That is a dangerous sign.”
426 outstanding and very believable !
I too loved Latin at school, not just because the teacher was gorgeous
I chose it instead of German, History or Biology — our options were slightly weird, requiring us to study English, English Lit, Maths, two sciences, French or German, Geog or History, a “creative option” (Art, D&T, Music, etc.) plus just about any other one.
422. Latin isnt the basis for English which is a Germanic language. Latin does have a big influence on English vocabulary but not on grammar.
As you point out, Latin is hugely benficial for learning other European language. I remember going to Portugal as a 15-year-old Latin GCSE student and being amazed at how much Portguese I could read based purely on my knowledge of Latin.
Having said all that, and I dont regret taking Latin at all, I did find it very boring and remember with dread that, by some quirk of the timetable, I had double Latin every Monday morning for four years at school!
Good teachers can make any subject interesting and Latin has a lot going for it if it is taught correctly.
426. Wibbler
Daily Mash is excellent..
Would be an even funnier piece if wasn’t almost certainly true
436
All true, all scary, and all unlikely to reach the ear of 99.9% of voters who will vote for more spending it seems.
It’s a real tough one for the tories. Christ we’re fecked if Labour win again.
I loved Latin at school, it gives you a good grounding and helps with a wider vocabulary.
423. This summer time.. which started in America..
We’re getting a very good insight into the background of the site’s social make-up here. I did Latin and Ancient Greek at school more than half a lifetime ago. They help enormously with spelling, and it was surprising how useful Ancient Greek proved in Cyprus two weeks ago - I could understand the gist of quite a lot of the written material.
I have to say, however, that Latin and Ancient Greek are nice to haves, not need to haves. I dropped Geography and German in favour of these two subjects. I suspect that German in particular would have been of more use to me in the longer term.
I loved Latin and the Classics so much, for a while I wanted to be a teacher, so I could teach those subjects.
439: She was the one which had her majority (37 i think) tattoed onto her ankle wasn’t it?
I never done Latin.
For those that think that Gordon Brown is going to walk away from the job immediately after the election, consider this:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7061846.ece
“Some Cabinet colleagues accept that Tory warnings of “five more years of Gordon Brown” remain Labour’s biggest hurdle at the election. But many are increasingly convinced that he will stay on as leader at least for the short term, whatever the result.”
Only did two years of Latin at school, which I regret..
Vir prudens non contraventum mingit
I wonder GB imagines himself to be an alpha male. So too, I would think, would Captain Ahab. People tend to forget that the main use of alpha males is their expendability.
452. What time is your PB2 artcile on the Lib Dems going up?
439 she must have got tired of bunking down on the camp bed in her office.
455 - It’s up! See here:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2010/03/south-west-liberal-democrat-enigma.html
453 (Recent Runes)
Contraventum = contra ventum
If SeanT runs short of thriller ideas in future again, he can use that thread title gratis.
re Slackbladder, and Latin can even teach us how to spell fetus correctly as well!
460: Ah yes, the infamous fetus/faetus saga.
454
Keep Ahab out of this - he had courage and a nice line in splenetic fury.
good read re Purcell and the Labour regime (in Glasgow)
http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/2010/03/purcell-stefan-king-james-mortimer.html
462: Captain Queeg then maybe. Fits Brown even better.
460. ChrisA.
Oh, dear. You’re back for more punishment?
461 Should that be fetus/foetus?
466. Paul Lloyd.
Yes.
Chris A and the welcher think that the spelling “foetus” is wrong in English, but they’re wrong.
Speaking of politicians wives; has anyone else seen the pictures of Carla Bruni in the Mail today?
She seems to have had some sort of work done, or is under a great deal of stress, or even wearing the wrong make-up. But she looks like that plastic surgery addict woman who looks like a Siamese cat.
3
‘The most remarkable thing in all this for me is the electorate’s refusal to accept that cuts on a truly massive scale and for many years to come are desparately required to avoid economic catastrophe, no ifs or buts about it. No pain, no gain.’
Peter,
After 13 years of developing a massive dependency culture via state handouts combined with borrowing being the panacea for every issue its hardly surprising.
Polls have traditionally overstated Labour and understated Conservatives. So many arent surprised that the polls dont ring true.
Kinnock thought he won. People still think Tony Blair got 50%+ and in 2005, the error want as great but there was a signficant error.
If polls overstate Labour by 2% and understate Cons by 2%, 6% becomes 10%.
459 ColinW - for it was he - emailed me quite a smart thriller idea after my appeal for help a coupla days ago.
His idea was this: a “third rate thriller writer asks for ideas for his new thriller online” - i.e. on a blog. He gets an amazingly good suggestion, follows it up with research, then finds himself in desperate trouble…
Clever AND insulting. I might actually use it for my fifth thriller, if I get to write one.
Pound ‘will be in crisis if there is no clear-cut election winner’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23815354-pound-will-be-in-crisis-if-there-is-no-clear-cut-election-winner.do
Here’s an article that might tickle your funny bone. One of America’s most prominent Obama-worshipping journalists, E. J. Dionne, is working himself up into a lather of excitement at the prospect that Labour might be returned for a fourth term:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/03/15/will_gordon_brown_mount_an_upset_in_britain.html
An excerpt:
“Brown, in the meantime, has finally found a role he seems to enjoy: that of the seasoned fighter coming from behind. Voters may not be wild about him, Brown tacitly admits, but “with me, what you see is what you get.” With Cameron, his argument goes, they can’t be sure what they’ll be buying.
The prime minister — take note, Barack Obama — is also casting himself as a leader who got Britain through a very dangerous economic time. Character, he said in a speech last week, is about “the courage to take the tough decisions and stick to them without being blown off course.”"
471. wibbler.
I’m impressed by the term “revenue enhancements”!
470 - I have to admit that “The Liberal Democrat Enigma” would probably have few high octane moments. When the hero was in peril, he presumably would be trapped inside a sweltering meeting hall as he was forced to listen to the merits of AV+ and STV.
464
Aye.
A peacetime officer placed in difficult circumstances, promoted beyond his capacity…
Oesophague or Esophagus?
Oestrogen or Estrogen?
472 - you’re right; that’s funny for about a billion different reasons.
I missed that final Brown quote as well. Great delusional stuff.
Oesophagus or Esophagus?
Oestrogen or Estrogen?
471 wibbler - Of course everyone knows Nomura is a Tory front organisation run by Old Etonian mates of Cameron. They’re just trying to do Britain down and scare the electorate into voting Conservative.
471. Tory stooges ((c) the left)
“Captain Queeg then maybe. Fits Brown even better.”
Captain Pugwash?
Guardian - Osborne blasts FSA over Lehman Brothers
Guardian - George Osborne accuses Gordon Brown of dishonesty over spending
463.Harry, in light of the way that Purcell left his job and many questions unanswered, its down right ludicrous that no one even knows where the hell the guy is right now. I think that his previous employer and one or two other concerned parties within the Labour party should have a contact address or telephone number at the very minimum. And it says much about the Scottish media that even now, we still don’t have clue to his whereabouts. Has he even left the country, all we are getting is an ever increasing list of rumours about possible sunny destinations?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1258022/SAS-hero-Andy-McNab-backs-David-Cameron-election-Gordon-Browns-betrayal.html
Hilariously, this will probably affect some votes.
“SAS hero and author Andy McNab has announced he is backing David Cameron in the election after accusing Gordon Brown of ‘betraying’ the Armed Forces.
McNab said while he had voted Labour in the past, the Prime Minister’s handling of funding for the military had prompted him to change his vote.
‘I’m impressed. The Tories are the future,’ he said. ‘Cameron’s got the SAS vote - that’s for sure.’ ”
Sounds like Mr Murdoch’s had a word with his star columnist.
OMG - 70s flashback
Yooonion leaders sounding like Scouse tw@ts all over the news, LOL
Anyone who doesn’t think Latin is important is a Palestine
479. Would that be John Major’s wife.. Nomura?
Nice to see all the (non-abusive) Tories on here still posting their right-wing delusional drivel and insults. Still refusing to accept reality of narrowing polls eh, chaps?
It’s just one analyst suggesting that the markets want Nomura the talk of increased borrowing. Cheap advertising if you ask me.
The BBC 1 O’Clock news pretty much went along the lines of - ‘Brown has shaken off the Unite-Labour link issue at a stroke by telling off Unite. Brown is a hero.’
With the main public news service acting like this, it’s a minor miracle the Tories have any lead in the polls at all.
488 - I can hear the sharpening of Tory axes as we speak.
481:
Captain Pugwash maybe, but I wouldn’t want to be the cabin boy. Can’t play the concertina for starters.
479 Almost right, Richard N! Nomura used to be run by Guy Hands, the Guernsey tax exile, who was William Hague’s Best Man.
I once drafted a story outline for a Doctor Who episode set in Cowley Street which involved William Gladstone being a Time Lord and his “outreach” to members of the Victorian street community being a cover.
Sent it some well connected Whovian friends but they said No.
I was devastated.
Well Gordon’s “going on and on even if he has no majority” could change the mood in the media. Unless there is a large Conservative majority they will be stuck with Brown.
By contrast, BBC WATO just had an interview with Norman red Brown who outlined all the reasons why it was a good idea for G Brown to continue…. No reasons were given as to why it was a bad idea!
I see Geoffrey Robinson is out batting for Gordon on WATO - a sure sign of desperation in the Bunkger - no doubt Pound and McGabble will be on later.
493 should be Norman red Smith.
483 I once spent a couple of weeks on an African safari with one of Andy McNab’s colleagues from Bravo Two Zero. He told some very amusing stories, including one about Maggie Thatcher receiving training on what to do if she were ever the victim of an attempted kidnapping. This included a live demo which happened without any warning, complete with stun grenades, smoke canisters etc going off and chaps in balaclavas, armed with AK47s, bursting into the room. This provoked a memorable line from Maggie, addressed to one of the senior civil servants who was accompanying her: “Sir Humphrey, what are you doing under the table? Do come out so that these gentlemen can tell us what we should do next.”
I’ve no idea if the story is true!
Another ministerial Balls up in the Bulger case
How difficult can it be for a Cabinet minister to get a woman’s name right - especially in a case as sensitive as the aftermath of the murder of Liverpool toddler James Bulger?
Last week, Jack Straw, the Justice Secretary, referred to Denise Fergus - the murdered child’s mother - as “Mrs Ferguson”.
Today, Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, has intervened in the row over Maggie Atkinson’s comments about the criminal age of responsibility and referred to Mrs Fergus as “Mrs Bulger”.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/crime/2010/03/another-ministerial-balls-up-over-bulger.html
I think the Conservative vote is going to come back and consolidate as we get closer to the election.
485. Anyone who doesn’t think Latin is important is a Palestine
by Rightisright March 15th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
They tend to do better in the ballroom on Strictly.
It ain’t just Nomura, of course.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c9b7374-301a-11df-8734-00144feabdc0.html
“Adam Cole at RBC Capital Markets said the tightening correlation between the pound’s trade-weighted performance and swings in the opinion polls had made the election the principal driving force behind the pound’s movements.
“Sterling’s recent weakness is a direct result of rebounding support for Labour and the growing risk of a hung parliament after the UK election,” he said.”
The UNITE peeps sound awful on the radio - real 70s stuff. Good coverage on R4 about links between them and Labour.
Ozzy on Today was good too - nice to have a fairly good day for a change.
493
In the interests of impartiality, the reasons for Brown remaining in office being a bad idea will be presented later - say 3:47 - 3:49 am on News 24.
The BBC strives for balance within the news cycle…
493 / 502 - Yup. It’s all a big conspiracy. But luckily they havent fooled you guys.
Just looking at the three party leaders and wondering if there is a little money to be made on which one will have the highest share in their seat at the next election. In 2005 it shook out as:-
Brown 58.1
Clegg 51.1
Cameron 49.3
Who will end up with the highest share? I suspect that they will all be around 53-55 could be interesting.
Trevor McDonald meets David Cameron watched by 1.7m
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article7062442.ece
504. Clegg looks most vunerable - but not much.
504 - Cameron surely. He’s gone from a non-MP to a potential PM and from no profile to uber profile, he should get a huge boost.
With Gordon Brown
threateningpromising to go on and on, I am surprised no enterprising journalist has portrayed it in football terms.The team have lost nearly every game this season, the cup run is but a distant memory. The only consolation is that they have not been relegated. Yet…
In those circumstances, who would argue for the old manager to remian in post?
505. How does that compare with T4P ?
Just heard on the news that Gordon Brown will refuse to resign even if he has no overall majority - can you imagine the chaos that will ensue, particularly if England & Wales have voted overwhelmingly Tory & he is propped up by Scottish votes!
Has there been any announcement of Easter recess yet?
According to the Parliament website, the House is not sitting w/c 12th April, which I thought was the day that Parliament was supposed to have been dissolved.
http://services.parliament.uk/calendar/2010/4/12/week.html
509. Ignore and read the article
503
While your perspicacity does credit to us all…
507 - 1st term MP to potential PM I mean - but the point remains. I would expect him to do much better next time.
BevaniteEllie
So #PMwithPM got almost 4 million viewers. #TrevCam got 1.6 million. Interesting.
509 The Ghost of Harry Flashman
Piers/Brown got 3.8m. It got huge lead-up publicity and got a big inherited audience from Dancing on Ice. I also think Piers Morgan intrinsically attracts a bigger audience than Sir Trev.
515: Tears4Piers was hyped and advertised a lot more..hardly interesting.
*
o Tony Woodley, Joint general secretary of Uni…
o The World at One, BBC Radio 4
Mr Woodley attacked Lord Adonis for his condemnation of the industrial action at British Airways.
He called the transport secretary “an unelected person who hasn’t got a clue about this dispute.”
“We’ve got a man here who might be a transport secretary but he has no industrial experience whatsoever.”
Mr Woodley claimed the company did not want to accept an offer to resolve the dispute.
“[BA] wants a war, it wants to take on our members,” he said.
510 JamesA
“if England & Wales have voted overwhelmingly Tory & he is propped up by Scottish votes!”
The whining will exponentially increase, but unless the English actually want constitutional change, nothing will happen.
Brown refuses to condemn strikers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7447406/Gordon-Brown-declines-to-criticise-Unite-over-British-Airways-strike.html
520. From the link
George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, said: “The Unite union is becoming Labour’s new militant tendency — buying influence, fixing candidate selections and ensuring its political director Charlie Whelan has an open access to Downing Street.
“Gordon Brown has to stop dithering and choose who to put first: his cronies or our country.”
The row underlines the key role that the union and Mr Whelan in particular are playing in the run-up to the election. Mr Whelan told at the weekend how he hoped that Unite would secure victory for the party, with about 100,000 members in 90 marginal constituencies being contacted in coming weeks. He said: “In 90 key seats the Unite membership is larger than the current Labour majority. If almost every Unite member voted Labour, we would win the election.”
Sky news latest pro Labour spin. Tory leader had a tough time speaking to an open audience at a college. The tough time was a yob shouting ridiculous claims that unemployment wasn’t that bad!
Not a mention of the real tough time Brown had yesterday by decent audience pre-selected by the bbc who still tore Brown apart. The media in this country is a disgrace, with Sky now just as bad as the BBC.
519 - Tony Woodley is one of the few people I viscerally detest.
523. russj
saramojtehed
#Cameron had a shaky start to Q and A session at Lewisham College, but ended up receiving warm applause from crowd
saramojtehed
tough crowd, but #Cameron seems to win them over in the end!
If you’re not a regular listener - well worth tuning into Quote Unquote on R4 this week on iPlayer, it’s excellent this week.
523- This is why the Tories, if they’re worth their salt, need to immediately hose down the BBC stables if they manage to win this election in spite of the no holds barred public-financed media effort to re-elect Labour.
1.7m for a political programme late on a Sunday evening isn’t too bad at all. Viewing figures for Tears for Piers were unusually high because the programme had been severaly hyped in advance.
However, what I would also say is that I believe people have seen enough of David Cameron to generally have a set view on him. Thats not the case so much with Gordon Brown, which is extraordinary given how long Brown has been on the scene, but all those years he hid himself away as Chancellor was done for a reason and he definatly turned himself into something of a mystery with the British people.
523 - It’s just disgraceful how no media outlet reports on politics the way I want them to.
519 - We shall come up with innovative idea. We shall block out all tv channels in Scotland except one.
On this channel, it will show non stop repeats of the 1966 Football World Cup Final, the 2003 Rugby Union World Cup Final and Saturdays Calcutta Cup Match.
This will stop, when Scotland returns 59 Tory MP’s
Spheroids!!!
*
o Ed Balls MP, Secretary of State for Childre…
o Jeremy Vine, Radio 2
Mr Balls this afternoon rejected criticisms of schools standards from business leaders.
Tesco boss Sir Terry Leahy and M&S chief Sir Stuart Rose are among the prominent business leaders to have criticised educational standards in recent weeks.
The schools secretary told Jeremy Vine that standards were up, and said the pair should join him in visiting schools.
“Talking down are schools in that way, I think it’s a bit out of touch I’m afraid,” he said.
531: Yay..’talking down schools’…anyone see a theme here?
530. I would have thought inflciting Saturday’s Calcutta Cup match on anyone would be defined as “cruel and unusual punishment” in anyone’s book. The 66 and 2003 World Cups I can understand, but what have the Scots done to deserve Saturday’s dross?!
‘That Was Alright!’
The radio mic picked up those words from David Cameron at the very end of a lively question and answer session with apprentices and jobseekers at Lewisham College in South-East London.
And it was alright too. Though at the beginning, with catcalling and heckling knocking the Tory leader off his stride, his media minders will have been anxious. At one point, anxious for the rough treatment to stop, Cameron slightly beseechingly asked “Aren’t there any questions from the press?”
In the end though, an animated and passionate Cameron went as far as could be expected to win over a deeply skeptical audience. There was stony silence as he walked in, a genuine if short round of applause at the end.
Cameron looked as though he enjoyed it, and is expecting more such rough and tumble when the campaign gets going. I bet the producers of the Trevor McDonald documentary wished they had been there…
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:d93b6618-954b-4810-8b18-f0ab99b7b5f7
531 Oh those terrible unpatriotic buggers - what a stupid line of attack from Spheroids ‘out of touch’ - yeah right…
532. I wonder how long it’ll take Mark Senior to latch on to the “talking down schools” line?
530 - They produced and inflicted Gordon Brown on an unsuspecting nation
Of course, the BBC’s take on UK creditworthiness is move along, nothing to see…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8567682.stm
“UK credit rating viewed as safe”
Sleep soundly, children.
531 First it’s the Economy, now it’s Schools. How long before ‘Talking down…’ is made a crime, and any politician or individual guilty of such is imprisoned, and political parties are outlawed for the same?
539 Well it makes a change from being a racist
533 - I was unsure on Saturday whether to see a draw as a fair result as neither team deserved to win and neither did, or a travesty as both teams deserved to lose but neither did.
531. I propose the immediate execution of anyone who uses the phrase “talking down …”. It’s the smuggest, most sanctimonious piece of New Labour twattery I’ve ever heard.
115 - From the link
“Near the end a life-long Labour voter called James tells Mr Brown: “Events are going to overwhelm you and you’re going to be swept away.”
On the evidence of this programme, it is very hard to believe that Mr Brown has any chance of winning the general election at all. ”
Yep
#529
Balanced is what (like) I would prefer the media to report, and by its constitution the BBC has a requirement to give balanced reporting. It is a pity the BBC clearly fail on this responsibility regularly and I agree with #527.
If the tories win the election their first step should be to remove all the biassed reporters from the BBC and if necessary cut or withdraw totally the lcence fee because I don’t wish to compulsorily pay for broadcasting of such a biassed opinion.
541. Lol, definitely the latter I think!
542. Not so much “New” Labour more “Old” Labour. Dear Harold always played the “talking Britain down” card in the 70’s.
156 “That is a truly odious comment tim, you should be ashamed of yourself. Are there no depths to which you won’t sink?”
I think we all know the answer to that one …….
Audience for Trevor McDonald exactly as expected.
The Dancing on Ice direct lead-in for Morgan / Brown was key - ITV should have done the same last night. I’m sure the reason they didn’t was it would have given Cameron a 15 minute earlier start than Brown which could have been considered unfair. But inserting the News in between was a lot more unfair.
Plus of course the massively higher publicity for Morgan / Brown.
Having said that McDonald / Cameron had a much higher differential between peak and average - suggesting a lot more people watched up to 30 mins of Cameron than is suggested by the average. This is good for Cameron because anyone watching even say 15 to 20 mins last night would have got a pretty good impression.
544
<iIf the tories win the election their first step should be to remove all the biassed reporters from the BBC and if necessary cut or withdraw totally the lcence fee because I don’t wish to compulsorily pay for broadcasting of such a biassed opinion.
And who decides what is biased?
Unbelievable….
541.Sir Norfolk Passmore, the England vs Scotland match could almost be written up before the game starts. Scrappy and unimpressive rugby laden with penalties. The whistle had to finally blow on a draw rather than when one of the teams was three points up.
542. It’s not a New Labour phrase: it’s a government phrase, used by ministers from time immemorial to attack those who point out failures. What is sadly inevitable is that if the Tories win in 2010 I can guarantee that in 2014 and 2015 they will be deploying the “talking Britain down” soundbite too.
iaindale
Blogpost: Another MP Skewered by Stephen Nolan http://tinyurl.com/yk9scuf
To answer the question raised by Mike my answer is that it would take the average lead of the polling organisations to get to 5.5% to make NOM the favourite.
Implicit in the current Betfair odds is a swing in the marginals of 8.5% and 6% nationally, on my estimates, which would mean an 8% lead. The average of the polls (including AR and yougov) is a 7% lead, so the market is adding just one percent to the average.
Working back we need the average of the polls to fall to 5.5% lead. The the market will assume a 6.5% lead which is consistent with a central case of a 6.8% swing in the marginals and a 5.2% swing nationally.
549- Somebody needs to decide. Preferably an adult.
551: The New Labour lot have taken it to an art-form though. However, the master has to be Mr Mark Senior of this parish, who described tories as being ‘treasonous’last night for talking down the country.
549. oprecisely the problem with those who want to slash the BBC. They dont really want a balanced broadcaster, but one that reflect better their own point of view.
There are significant problems with the Beeb’s balance but partisdan slash and burn isnt going to help.
552 - Danny Alexander is really bad in that prgoramme..:D
programme even ..
paulwaugh
Labour MP Ashok Kumar has died, his office just confirmed to me. “Very sudden but not suspicious” they say.
557.Kristin, I bet Danny Alexander wishes that he was where I was this weekend instead of doing the Nolan programme.
559 crikey.. poor chap.
559 - He was only 53 according to Wikipedia.
530 TSE
I see you have made a start on that! Wall-to-wall Beckham on Sky News.
557 I rang in and had a spat with Nolan when he went for David Willets
I’ve been on a few times and he’s a good sport who will listen/change his tack when challenged fairly.
WATO quite refreshing to-day - not all sweetness and light in the Bunker. Labour MP criticising Adonis and Brown over BA, Labour criticism of Hattie re-appointing Trevor Phillips.
paulwaugh Labour MP Ashok Kumar has died, his office just confirmed to me. “Very sudden but not suspicious” they say
559.Sudden and very sad news.
556 549
The minute anyone - any Party - decides to censor the BBC, it is no longer independent.
Ooops that happened with Gilligan and the Iraq war.
Where are all the left wing supporters of the BBC’s independence..
“Nutty Tories decide to censor BBC”.. is the headline they would run with…
564.Plato - “557 I rang in and had a spat with Nolan when he went for David Willets”
I listened to the programme that night, when were you on?
550 - Most Calcutta Cup matches have commitment even if they lack quality. To be honest, there wasn’t a lot of either this weekend. It wasn’t even two bald men fighting over a comb, more two bald men bickering slightly half-heartedly over some Grecian 2000.
568- Does the BBC have a policy of zero surveillance of bias within their ranks? If so, that’s a scandal in and of itself. If they do have such a policy, the Tory argument of course has to be that the mechanism is broken.
#549 and #556
Obviously both of you are convinced that the media is reporting fairly.
I would suggest that nobody in their right mind could argue that the BBC or even Sky of late gives balanced political reporting. Take a read through the many complaints on the BBC website concerning QT,AM etc.Take a look at the many comments on PB and other blogs. This isn’t coincidental.
Oh no… poor guy.
Mr Kumar was a distinguished scientist and researcher. Regardless of politics, I always like to such people in Parliament informing legislation.
572 - Sheer volume of complaints isn’t a meaningful yardstick. Of course very few people fire out angry posts on websites saying they think things are broadly fine.