Will you be there at Dirty Dicks?
March 12th, 2010
Eve of election PB gathering - March 31st 6.30pm
Thanks again to Fat Steve for organising this but we are having a pre-election informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: 6.30 pm Wednesday March 31st.
Following the points raised last time about the ventilation we will be in a different part of the pub.
There’s no need to register but it would help if those that want to go could drop an email to Steve who, totally unlike his name, has a svelte like profile.
It was a great gathering before Christmas - see you there.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Will try and get down for this one on the choo choo
Good Evening PBers.
*twiddles thumbs*
Flockers works very close to Dirty Dicks so will try to sidle out of the office for a snufty or two
Mike, you’re missing an apostrophe there, it makes Dirty Dick’s sound like a different type of establishment entirely.
Wrong end of the UK for me but I hope you all have a blast.
FPT
Apologies if already posted Ipsos/MORI’s Ben Page on Hardtalk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00r9q9g/HARDtalk_Ben_Page_Chief_Executive_Ipsos_MORI/
by Kristin March 12th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
Will try to get there.
5 John L. Perchance a certain Lib Dem PPC will be undertaking some screen tests !!
8 Jack…I was surprised to see that story but I understand she went down well at the selection meeting !!
Any chance of the northern branch of PBers having a do in the north. Leeds would be good!
Are we due a TNS BRMB tonight?
I do hope tim tells his Missus that she looks like Mrs Clegg. I reckon 2 black eyes would be the order of the day.
No, but I hope those attending have a nice time.
8. Looking forward to some innovative GE You Tube videos from LibDems.
Whats wrong with the ventilation?
Hope Steve Hiltons office is ventilated, although withdrawing Osborne from publis appearances in the run up to the election seems like a sensible move.
ConHome’s Tim Montgomerie today posted a piece that risks getting missed on this freaky Friday of stories about Uddin, BA strikes and a sarky Sarko.
Tim reveals that following a less than stellar few weeks for CCHQ, Andy Coulson and Steve Hilton (the yin and yang of Cameronism) are now sharing an office. Coordination between strategy and tactics should be improved, we’re told.
But it was Tim’s almost throwaway line about George Osborne that caught my eye. The Shadow Chancellor’s Mais lecture was his last big economic statement before the election, he says, and he will be stepping back from the front line to focus on his other job as campaign chief.
“Ken Clarke will fill the gap by being more of the public face for Conservative economic policy”.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/
I won’t be there as I don’t do public appearances. However I hope it goes well. Funny name for a bar?
8. I thought you were Michael Foot. I must have been wrong.
9 DaveyTibs. Indeed so, and her specialist knowledge about the upcoming general erection will be very hard for the voters to ignore.
Will try to make it too.
do they have wifi for late tradings?
17..yes Jack…Very Hard indeed
Liverpool street station? I presume that is some place in Landon? The utter arrogance that Londoners (not ogh of course) think the whole world revolves around their shitty cess pit of a city, and we should all know the names of their train stations. I would rather burst a boil with mucky fingers then go to London.
A few months ago, it was unavoidable for me to get off at Watford station. Yuk, what a vile place. I couldnt wait to get back on train up northwards.
Jack…the voters are pretty lethargic in Essex…do you think she’ll be able to “get them out” during the campaign ?
21. I don’t know London very well, but I have played Monopoly.
Re 15 - If Osborne can’t front the Tories economics campaign, how likely is it that he’ll front the cuts if they get into power?
Their private polling will be telling them he’s not crediblee.
Hammond is 12/1 next chancellor
Clarke is 18/1
15
Tim , have you answered grendel’s question yet.. or will you ever?
23.Do you not rate Osborne? I think you might have mentioned it before, I’m not sure.
20. I’m shocked at you Mr Tibs …. Clearly It’s The Heat Of The Night.
23 - I think that Osborne as Chancellor is utterly nailed on if the Conservatives win.
23. That bloke on TW last night wasn’t very clear about why the bods in the City don’t like Osborne.
Correction.
Clarke is 33/1 at PP.
Worth a tenner?
Could only stay for about 20 minutes before Christmas. Will try to stay for longer this time. Count me in.
Sam Cameron on ITV:
http://www.itv.com/news/leaders-wives56742/
29. Not worth a penny. If DC wins Osborne will be CofE. Get used to it.
28 Xenon…there’s no way Cameron will let down Osborne - they’re close personal chums…of course because they are such chums it maybe Cameron’s not got that killer instinct to act if things go pear-shaped in the election campaign
Philippe FPT: “it appears that Obamacare will be voted within 10 days”
Yes, they’re pushing it through starting Monday. The strategy is to give it momentum and a sense of “now or never” in order to drag wavering members on board. I don’t think they have the votes yet, but they’re hoping they will by the end of next week.
Morris…any views on Bahrain this weekend?
Guten Arbent! I will be there with all that can come to DD’s, eh flockers.
Caledonian Mercury - Salmond rages against the broadcasting machine
looks like the Obamacare’s be on vote in the House in 10 days.
28 because Osborne wants to break up the banking monopoly - he seems to think they have built a nice profitable business by putting risk on tax payer and profits in their pockets and wants to tax them, break them up and introduce lower margins through competition (and they are worried that he and Obama’s team might actually agree on what to do).
Not sure if this adds anything to the YouGov weightings debate, from UK Polling Report
Me:
Anthony I have a question about Party IDweighting.
How do you know it doesn’t change? We know that people change their voting intention, do some of these also change their Party ID?
When did YouGov choose the proportions of Party ID, eg Labour 32%? How was this figure established? What research do you do to ensure that figure is constant?
I’m just curious to understand how you weight to such a subjective and potentially variable figure. Whereas past vote is at least theoretically objective and a constant – although I understand the issues over false recall.
Anthony Wells:
John Lilburne, people do change their party ID over time, albeit very slowly. YouGov do not weight current party ID to that moving target though. Instead they weight respondents’ historical party ID from when then joined the panel to a historical party ID. Originally this was party ID in May 2005, but as many panellists joined YouGov after that when ID would have started to drift towards the Tories the targets have occassionally been updated and shifted slightly towards the Conservatives.
32 Steve G. So Osborne to be Church of England …. I see, handing the plate around - Sound Conservative policy for servicing the national debt and a job Osborne is just about qualified for !!
stars n stripes =
41. Ho ho ho.
21 - notme:
You are Boris Johnson and I claim my £5.
FPT 509 Robusticus. I took 10-1 on that neither captain would throw away the game before the first ball. I was also going to tip KP for a century if England batted first. I obviously need to find a more predictable source of income.
31 Leaders’ Wives? That sounds rather like a feature in a certain mens’ magazine I used to occasionally sneak a look at when I was a schoolboy.
Is it just me that thinks this looks like piece of tory branding?
http://anmblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c565553ef01310f925a65970c-pi
it certainly does not scream Lib Dem to me.
“withdrawing Osborne from publis (sic) appearances in the run up to the election” … not sure thats accurate though the Spectator say that Clarke will front ‘economic’ matters.
I always thought that that was why he was brought back anyway.
So that’s where you all went last time. I emailed Steve for details and he never got back to me.
The constituencies that have most matched on the Betfair markets so far include:
Brighton Pavilion: The Green Party is 2.2 favourite to take this seat in a three-way fight
Castle Point: Con 1.32 favourite but it looks like maverick independent Bob Spink is in with a chance to keep his seat
Watford: Con 1.94 are favourite to take this from Labour from third place in a 3-way fight, but the Liberals are also in with a good chance.
Hampstead and Kilburn: Liberals favourite to win this new seat at 1.81 but both other parties also in with a good chance.
Stockton South: A marginal the Conservatives at 1.54 need to win but may find tough
Burnley: With the Liberals at 1.95 and Labour at 1.96 this looks like it could go to the wire
Derby North: A 3-way marginal with Labour at 2.32 favourite to hold on, but all three parties very close in the betting
Scunthorpe: A seat held by Labour since 1987 which should only fall in a landslide, but recent events have made more marginal
Newcastle North: Labour are 1.6 favourites, but it looks like the Liberals are in with a good chance
Barking: Labour are 1.22 favourites but the BNP is clearly not without a hope
Morley and Outwood: A safe Labour seat held by Ed Balls but at 1.26 favourite it looks like a Portillo moment is not beyond possibility
Bethnal Green & Bow: Labour 1.24 favourites but Respect in with a chance to hold it even without George Galloway
Eastleigh: Chris Huhne 1.72 favourite looks like he has a tough fight to hold this
Luton South: Cons 1.83 favourites to take this from Labour but Esther Rantzen has made it a three-way fight
Oxford East: Liberals at 1.63 are favourites to win from Labour
Taunton Deane and Torbay: Conservatives 1.5 favourites to win both these Liberal seats
Norwich South: Liberals at 2.18 just favourites in an extraordinary 4 way battle
So sorry I can’t join you but I am boycotting London until we get ourselves a good government. Obviously I will not be returning again to London. If I am lucky and live to be 100, I shall still not get there.
45 - ‘I took 10-1 on that neither captain would throw away the game before the first ball.’
It was a bizarre decision by the Bangladesh captain. Did he think: take a few wickets early, put an out-of-form Pietersen under pressure… Dunno.
O/T Labourlist has posted an interview with Douglas Carswell (Conservative MP) which may interest some of you:
http://www.labourlist.org/douglas-carswell-interview-olly-deed
Mr Carswell was talking to Olly Deed in February 2010.
WHY has the font size of PB (at least on my computer) been reduced to the vanshing point. Is this just me or is everyone else affected by this?
47.don, I know that others spotted the similarity to a certain supermarket logo earlier today, but that is exactly what it looks like.
No
51. Shakib obviously fancies his own bowling but got 0 for 80. If this was pub cricket he’d be hanging from a rafter by now.
No, because I won’t be in the UK, but thanks all the same!
49 getting better
You, sir/madam, are a gentleman/lady and a scholar.
Well, who’d have thought it? Samantha speaks estuary.
59 Southam Observer
I thought she came across very well, though like Plato, I too cringed at “Dave”… Cameron just isn’t a Dave, however much he may wish to be.
She seemed quite nervous though. Did anyone else pick that up?
53 SSI are you using Chrome? If so, CTRL_0 to return it to the usual size (CTRL_+ and CTRL_- to resize up and down).
I find there is something which seems to resize the font sometimes when scrolling using the touchpad.
32 - Not worth a penny. If DC wins Osborne will be CofE. Get used to it.
A rather silly attitude on a political betting site which relies on combining political judjment with assessment of odds.
Osborne is 1/5 to be next chancellor
Hammond 10/1 and Clarke 33/1.
First of all you have to look at the first part of your second sentence
If DC wins
Now define win.
OK Overall Majority, Osborne, in your mind is a cert, but the odds on that are now about 55% so the Osborne bet is poor value even on your own parameters.
So what if Dave doesn’t “win” but wins, ie, largest party but short of a majority.
Who is more likely to calm the markets or get cross party support, Osborne Hammond or Clarke?
Are you beginning to get the idea?
Now, in those circumstances is Osborne 150 times more likely to become Clarke?
50 times more likely than Hammond?
I doubt it.
And that is leaving aside the fact that Osborne may not want the job in a Cameron Govt with an overall as a more strategic role is what is planned.
Hung parliament discussion on Any Questions just now.
Now, in those circumstances is Osborne 150 times more likely to become Clarke?
Good typo.Big image change.
I meant
Now, in those circumstances is Osborne 150 times more likely to become CoE than Clarke?
OK, my version of PB is now back to normal font - thanks SeanT for input!
Has Samantha had some rendering around the eyes?
62
Tim before you pose questions.. answer grendel’s
No comment required…
Nick Clegg told Liberal Democrats at the party’s spring conference tonight that “together we are an unstoppable force”. In an interview with the Guardian, published tomorrow, the Liberal Democrat leader accused Gordon Brown of being “in denial” and “almost delusional” about his role in the financial crisis, but refused to be drawn on who he would align his party with the event of a hung parliament.
60 - ‘She seemed quite nervous though. Did anyone else pick that up?’
I didn’t see it myself, but remember a while back Nick Robinson saying that no way in a million years would Sam Cam ever agree to do media stuff, the suggestion being that the thought of it scared her to death.
IF Anna Span (or whatever her name is) is elected, how would it affect the “hung parliament” situation?
My guess is that her real canidacy goal is not election, but rather errection . . . that is, fodder for her next cimematic endeavor: “Members of Parliament”
BTW, on his blog, Iain Dale found a statement by her to the effect that she’s a Labourite. Strange, I also did some reseeach on her website, but somehow missed this. Good thing that ID was less distracted!
69 - I’m sure they weren’t planning to do it, but Daves ratings must be worrying them.
54 Somerfield? Trust the LibDems to pick the wrong one. If they want to be aspirational it should look like M&S or Waitrose, for a dependable, workmanlike image they should have gone for Tesco or Sainsbury, to attract the WWC Morrison’s, or Lidl or Netto to emphasise their deficit-cutting credentials. A seaerate logo looking like Booth” for use in Cumbria of course.
But surely they realise that no-one in their right mind shops at Somerfield unless it is the only supermarket for 25 miles and they live at the top of a mountain that Tesco’s can’t get the truck up?
I suppose they didn’t make the obvious error of making it look like the Iceland logo, which would just say “welsher”.
65. Er, no problem. I’m sorry I can’t attend the pre-election party - I had resolved to be at the next pb bash come what may, so I could bottle me a lefty.
However I will be in Bangkok for the launch of the Thai language edition of Genesis Secret, so no can go.
Why can’t we have the pb pre-election bash a bit more *pre* the election? i.e. in April?
Alternatively, are we going to have some kind of pb General Election do, on May 6? That would be fun. And I would definitely go to that.
62.”So what if Dave doesn’t “win” but wins, ie, largest party but short of a majority.
Who is more likely to calm the markets or get cross party support, Osborne Hammond or Clarke?”
Its not about which politician holds the position of Chancellor that matters the most when it comes to calming the markets, its the policies and the where with all to implement them. I don’t think the markets are that shallow as to worry about personalities in this way.
Darling has a budget to give on the 24th, are the markets going to give him a thumbs up because you see him as a possible successor to Brown, or will they be flicking through that red book to see how that deficit is going to be realistically tackled if Labour win largest party or a majority at the next GE.
I’ll try to be there. Dirty Dicks is a very good pub.
Out of interest, do we expect UKIP to get 1.4m votes, and the BNP to get 0.8m, as Yougov’s polls imply? They show a big overall shift from the Left of the spectrum to the Right, compared with 2005, but the Conservatives only partly benefit from this. Either, voters are leap-frogging the Conservatives completely, or the Conservatives are picking up a lot of people who voted Labour and Lib Dem in 2005, but haemmoraghing support to the Right of them.
72. The Lib Dems’ new slogan is GENIUS !!
http://tinyurl.com/yheqls8
Good on Samantha for being nervous. That just makes her easier to identify with and more natural.
68 - ‘…the Liberal Democrat leader accused Gordon Brown of being “in denial” and “almost delusional” about his role in the financial crisis…’
Did he clear that with St Vince, who’s been dining out for eighteen months on how he was at one with the genius of Gordon’s decisions?
johnrentoul
Sam Cam. Doesn’t sound as posh as I’d expected. Glottal stops for ts. http://www.itv.com/news/leaders-wives56742/
79. I thought for a second she had faked her glottals. But they are too authentic. She really does speak Haute Bourgeois Estuary; despite being posher than her husband “Dave” - Dave speaks posher than her.
She is also highly sexy and makes Sarah Brown look like a desperate and ludicrous frump.
I’d like to, but suspect I’ll be fully engaged on the doorstep by then.
Idle question: do people think the Tory detox prgramme has worked? I’m coming to the conclusion (not that I’m biased or anything) that it’s got stuck at an unhelpful halfway mark. The Lab/Lib people who I talk to on the doorstep are often really fired up this time and it’s not about enthusiasm for Labour: it’s about stopping the Tories (and it’s what’s generating that shift back to Labour as LibDem 2nd preference that wibbler has pointed out). There’s much more of that than there was in 2005, probably because it’s a more obvious risk.
But on the other hand, DC has moved enough to make the SeanTs of their coalition uneasy. He needs to make up his mind whether he’s a fiery populist or an amiable centrist - at present it seems to vary from day to day, with the increasingly ineffective “well, we’re not Gordon Brown anyway” theme bridging the gap.
77.Sarah, I thought that Samantha Cameron was nervous, but very natural and unspun. I suspect that she has always been aware that as the GE draws nearer and the campaign took off, she would have to then get used to this kind of media spotlight more as an active participant. She will have been aware that Michael Howard’s wife Sandra had to do do the same back in 2005, Cherie Blair was by then quite an old hand at the intense media attention the spouses then come under.
In the case of BA, the walkout of 13,500 cabin crew is being planned by Unite, whose political officer, Charlie Whelan, is back as a member of Gordon Brown’s inner circle, plotting the election campaign. Unite has donated £11 million to Labour in the past three years; now it may be Mr Whelan who is able to decide whether the party suffers or escapes the devastating embarrassment of a BA strike on the eve of a general election. For a man who enjoys pulling strings, it must surely be gratifying to hold so many of them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/7431030/Union-blackmail-will-bring-chaos-to-Britain.html
Why should George Osborne be campaign chief, I wonder what his strength is in this area?
Successful campaigns have, as a rule, a chief strategist and a campaign manager. The chief strategist decides on the main themes — what the election is about — and the campaign manager is in charge of implementing this vision: the day-to-day tactics. The Tory problem is that there is no campaign manager. All four men want to play at being chief strategist.
Mr Osborne is the force behind two election mini-miracles: Mr Cameron’s leadership victory, and scaring Gordon Brown out of calling an election in 2007. But combining the jobs of shadow chancellor and election co-ordinator is proving to be a struggle for him. He has already brought in George Bridges, a party stalwart, to help him tie all the strands of the campaign together — to co-ordinate for the election co-ordinator. It’s true Gordon Brown did combine being chancellor with running election campaigns, but this is not a model Osborne should want to follow.
Yet even those in the deepest of panics about the Tory election do not doubt that Mr Cameron is the party’s best hope — and that he is capable of turning things around, as he has done in the past. The two-hour-long shadow Cabinet meeting this week is a sign of him starting to act. Also, I understand that Michael Gove has been drafted in to put sharper focus on a handful of key messages. In his gentlemanly way, Mr Gove is banging heads together. Or, as one aide puts it, ‘Michael has had a beneficial effect on the coherence of people’s thinking.’
http://www.ukiphillingdon.com/?p=2248
Whilst I am normally just a reader of the comments on PB.com and have never commented before about the
way the polls have moved in thelast few
weeks one of my sons has prompted me to say something. He is 28, an IT engineer, and non political. He cannot understand why the YouGov polls are saying the Conservative lead is narrowing when all the rest are saying the opposite. He suggests that we should be looking at the other polls together and then comparing all of them with YouGov.
He is not about conspiracies but he has suggested that YouGov’s internet panel could have been deliberately targetted by NuLabourpeople over a period of
time,perhaps over the last 12 months, with the intention of skewing the findings now to suggest the conservative lead is narrowing when it isn’t. Whether this is possible I
am not sure but he is suggesting that some people are persuaded by the way the majority are thinking and this is why we are seeing such strange poll results. I am not convinced but its
worth a discussion.
81 The Tory detox has been less successful than the Labour toxification programme under Brown, for sure.
Two sad pieces of news (for me). Firstly, I will be in Barcelona that day and, secondly, the widespread attention that this site now gets means I have been informed I can no longer share my pearls of worldly wisdom as myself. Too many people have turned my personal opinions around and my boss has had too many Google alerts for mentions of the publication here for the good of my career I will be disisting from posting under my real name.
I think it is a shame, but this is professional cowardice and common sense rolled into one.
If anyone responds to this message, please try not to mention the name of the publication I work for as I don’t really want him getting an alert minutes after he sent me the warning.
I’ll be back under an assumed name and maybe I’ll be a better poster
A bientot
Dave
82 - And so one of the Goodwives who has spent a few weeks baiting Sarah Brown breaks cover.
A final scene for the Crucible is required Christina, where you Plato and SallyC change from chanting “witch, witch” to angels dancing on a pinhead while beatifying SamCam.
A masterclass in hypocrisy.
And the Tory blokes who’ve joined you in the baiting are as bad.
71
tim thats utter bull. Everything CCHQ has a purpose to it.. and the timing too. Wait until the 24th March “budget”( a joke if ever there was one) . “Budget” implies proper fiscal planning..
Once Darling is forced into decaring their hand see what happens then. Its all a matter of timing.
In the meantime amuse yourself with McMillan Scott, Hague, Hurd, Bosnia,Llatvian homophobes and all the other distractions that you post. It matters not a jot.
60 - She will undoubtedly be an asset, just like Sarah. As long as they are not all over the TV all of the time.
typo .. “everything CCHQ does has a purpose”
82. My worry about Glam Sam Cam is that she might be a bit too Glam to do the job. i.e. she might provoke envy amongst those crucial women swing voters.
We all know how murderously bitchy women can be about other, more attractive young women - women are the “unfair sex”, as James Joyce called them.
When I was a lad about town - *sob* - I once dated a model, and I can still remember the extraordinary looks of hatred she got from other women. Just open, blatant loathing. Amazing.
Sam Cam is rich, slim, posh, young, pretty, with a very successful husband, and she is sexy. She might end up irritating other women,.
By contrast Sarah Brown is homely, frumpy, with a big old arse and she wears badly-chosen dresses, i.e. she is likely 80% of British women. The fact she is herself a highly successful PR woman gets hidden behind her enormous butt.
A dilemma for Tories. Perhaps they could ask Sam to wear more unflattering clothes with stupid floral designs.
Fingers crossed I WILL be at the pb party on 31st March!!
81.”I’m coming to the conclusion (not that I’m biased or anything) that it’s got stuck at an unhelpful halfway mark.”
NickP, I think its going to come down to Labour losing this GE under Gordon Brown, and not as many in the Labour party would like to frame it, as Cameron failing to seal the deal and win the GE. You mention that you are finding Labour and Libdem voters fired up about stopping the Tories, but what about all those anti Labour voters fired up about kicking them out, they have grown in number over the last five years?
The Lib Dems have released their new campaign logo “Building a fairer Britain - change that works for you.” With all parties campaigning on these two motherhood planks of change and fairness I was reminded of the lines from Snow White ‘mirror mirror on the wall whose the fairest of them all’ when it dawned on me what an unusually fair party the Liberal Democrats are.
…
Yes, you have spotted it, the Lib Dems are definitely the fairest parliamentary party, everyone white, not a single representative of a single ethnic minority. How they are contrasts so sharply with how they would like to be seen to be. Is this an anomaly? A freak set of election results perhaps? No, with the single exception of Parmjit Singh Gill who served for a single year in 2004/5 they have never had an MP from an ethnic minority.
http://www.redragonline.com/2010/03/mirror-mirror-on-wall.html
If samantha fails to breath life into her husbands flagging campaign where next? I’d like to hear from Dave’s first nanny.
86 Head Teachers get similar comments about members of their staff who are known to be political! Use of a pseudonym is frequently common sense.
It’s been interesting that during the recent debate regarding long term health care for the elderly that I don’t recall Philip Hammond disclosing an interest in as much as on the House of Commons Register of Members interests he discloses that he has a registrable shareholding in Castlemead Ltd, a company involved in the building and deveopment of Care Homes
The Liberal Democrats are touchingly still democratic, and have since a conference in Southport in 1998 an agreed procedure for how its leadership should consult its membership on what it shoud do in the event of a hung parliament, including whether to hold a special conference.
…
It means if three quarters of MPs and the Federal Executive support a deal with another party, Clegg is free to strike that deal. If the support falls below that threshold then the proposal goes to the conference, and finally if necessary to an all membership ballot.
…
So the prospect rears of Sterling fall though the floor as the party gathers in a seaside town this May to decide the fate of the nation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2010/mar/12/nick-clegg
86. Shame to hear that Dave. We will try to work out who you are in your new guise. Dave Dior perhaps?
81- “The Lab/Lib people who I talk to on the doorstep are often really fired up this time and it’s not about enthusiasm for Labour: it’s about stopping the Tories…”
Presuming that this is a widespread phenomenon, it does suggest that Labour is succeeding at what is by far the best strategy for them to pursue: making this election a referendum on the Tories. You can just dismiss what Nick is saying as partisan bluster, but 1) it does help to explain the drift in the polls and 2) I don’t think it’s worth it for the Tories to take the chance of ignoring the warning (not least because Nick is an honorable guy).
Personally applaud Samantha Cameron for taking the media plunge. Not really her cup of tea, but she did it because she thinks (rightly) it will help her husband. And now is the perfect time (not to early, not to late) to get her feet wet.
Almost all political spouses are public relationsassets to their significant others. Of course there are exceptions. Among US 1st ladies, Mary Todd Lincoln and Nancy Reagan spring to mind. While in UK think that Cherie Blair, for all her good points, was in the same league PR-wise.
Note that Clara Bruni was (and still is) a major asset for Sarko. And on a lighter note, she gets a mention in a really stupid movie now being advertised ad infinitum on US TV. Premise of this film (which Roger will NOT be referencing in next year’s Oscar picks!) is a guy who is a “5″ dating a girl who’s a “10″. There is a scene (from the trailer) that goest something like this:
“Dude, she’s out of your league”
“But what about the babe who used to date Mick Jagger and is now married to that ugly guy who is now President of France?”
“Yeah, but you’re forgetting two things. One, he knows all about wine. And two, he probably french kisses like a motherfeckker.”
80 - I bet she didn’t speak estuary before she went to art school.
60 - ‘She really does speak Haute Bourgeois Estuary’
Of course, your accent can change. All that plebbing it with the geezers of the London stationery scene might have taken its toll. I had a friend at school who was so well spoken people would mistake him for a public schoolboy. I saw him a few years ago and he sounded like a builder.
I would like to see the whole interview with SamCam before coming to any real conclusion about it. Fom what has been shown so far though, I thought she was nervous - or perhaps rather, not at ease doing this sort of thing. I wish David Cameron had not gone down this road - I think he might have gained some kudos if he had eschewed the Brown route with Sarah - but there it is - best perhaps to see the whole interview.
86. I suppose you could always try for a job with a proper newspaper.
105 - I reckon Sarah Brown and Samanthan Cameron are big enough and clever enough not to let their husbands decide what they should do.
88- MTF - Comfort yourself why you explain why the lead has narrowed so much.
90- typo .. “everything CCHQ does has a purpose”
Did you mean to say “porpoise” ? a dig at Pickles?
Cruel, but above your usual standard.
103 Nuffink wrang wiv ‘aving a cockney accent,me old china!
(As the son of a north Londoner life-long resident in Bournemouth,I have a slight tinge of London in my southern accent,which strengthens if I mix with Londoners)
106. And you could have a proper career in something genuinely creative, rather than spending your entire pathetic life selling tampons and catfood.
Ah, sorry, too late.
Hey Nick, did you see my amazing offer on previous thred? To help you over the top (in return for round-trip airfare) by playing the Ugly American (a role for which I’m well-qualified more ways than one) and badmouthing you in every pub from Beeston to Bramcote!
Would be a labo(u)r of love!
102 Sea Shanty Irish
People in the States really didn’t like Teresa Kerry; they really loved Laura Bush. Can’t help but feel it contributed to his air of haughtiness which put some people off in aught four.
62. Oh dear Tim you do become all condescending and facetious when Osborne gets mentioned. I think your judgement becomes a little cloudy too. However, just to indulge you, I shall try to make it a little clearer. If DC becomes PM, Osborne will be CofE. Get used to it.
91 - spot on Sean - basically sums up what I was saying earlier about the distinction between Sarah Brown (one of us) and Sam Cameron (not one of us) and put much better than I did. But then I was simply attacked for being partisan. Can’t image you’re are being partisan pro-labour somehow, but you, like me see it how it is. And any mention of the ‘p’ word in relation to Sam Cameron is potentially caustic to ‘Dave’ even if it is ’she isn’t as posh as I expected’.
105 - Could be worse, if Jacob Zuma’s personal ratings fall like Browns did and Daves are, his wives would take up all the terrestrial channels.
86.David, sorry to hear that you have been forced into a name change and anonymity, but very glad to hear that you are going to stick around as one of the many great posters who are an asset to the site.
Sarah Brown is not homely, she has her own PR company and is the main mover and shaker behind GB’s Piers for Tears and everything else he does.
Sam Cam looks very natural and fresh. I don’t think she will do more than what she is comfortable with and she also has her own business to run.
If she didn’t get involved in GE campaign they would criticise her for that so it is a no-win situation.
96
A few YouTube clips of Brown picking and eating the contents of his nose should go down a treat with female voters?
I’m going to try to make it.
86, That’s tough, David. Probably wise, though. Good luck with your pseudonym (”Oer Divad” might be too obvious, though - and looks reminiscent of Frankie Howerd greeting the only Gay in the Village, on reflection).
On Topic, I reckon I can make it again.
re 96. A 13% lead does not sound like a flagging campaign Roger.
108
So typical of you tim, have you answered Grendel’s question yet?. Of course you won’t because there isn’t a valid answer.
The lead has only narrowed if you actually believe You Gov.
Do you believe You Gov?
One thing’s for certain - Sarah and Sam are both one helluva better than Cherie
Maybe the ventilation issue was caused by the unusually high levels of hot air talked.
The system just wasnt built for it…
86 Avoid Red would seem a reasonable and pertinent rearrangement
114. Don’t get me wrong, I think GlamSamCam will - probably - be an asset to her “‘usband Dive Cam’run”. And seeing as Brown has so shamelessly exploited his wife’s ovaries and steatopygia, I see no reason why the Tories shouldn’t do similar.
I’m just saying there is a *risk* that she *could* come across as too thin and too rich and too sexy and too smart and too posh. Hopefully her glottal stops, as menshed, will assist in that.
SSI makes a good point upthread, Carla Bruni was certainly an asset for Sarko, and you don’t get much sexier slimmer and chic-er than Carla Bruni, so maybe the good women of England will forgive Sam her lack of huge, unsightly, Sarah Brown hips.
99
‘It means if three quarters of MPs and the Federal Executive support a deal with another party, Clegg is free to strike that deal. If the support falls below that threshold then the proposal goes to the conference, and finally if necessary to an all membership ballot.’
Is that because they have no confidence in their leader or that they never expect to be in that position?
107 - My comment was in no way intended as a criticism of SamCam - far fom it. Merely an observation that fom the clips I saw to me she did not come over as at ease doing this sort of thing. From everything I hear and read, she really does not seem to enjoy the political limelight - good on her for that.
SeanT does have a point, that Mrs. Cameron might be too much of a good thing. Though my guess is that she’s aware of this and can dial it down a bit.
An example of someone with something of the same issue, was Jacqueline Kennedy.
For example, my own sainted mother was a big JFK fan in the early ’60s, but somewhat allergic to Jackie. The reason (at least I think this was it) was that Mom was shanty Irish (and from not that hot a shanty) whereas Jackie was lace curtain Irish (and not the kind you found at JC Penney or Monkey Wards). Also thing that the famous “breathless” quality of Mrs K’s voice was regared as highly effected.
BUT in the end, Jackie managed to win my Mom over . . . somewhat. First, by her famous “tour” of the White House on TV. Second, by her heroism (really no other word for it) during and after the assassssinnation of JFK.
Typical of men to ascribe such bitchiness to women. What about Cheryl Cole, who is sexy, beautiful and admired by women? Or Princess Diana? You can’t be so categorical.
122 - The lead has only narrowed if you actually believe You Gov.
Now you are delusional.
When I told you to buy Labour on the spreads at 203 the lead was 17%.
123 - Each to their own, I’d prefer to be in a coalition with Miriam and Sayeeda.
131. Tim, you are typical Labour, always telling people to do things. Nanny knows best eh Tim.
110. I do cars shampoo and chocolate usually. Tampons are just another of your peculiar obsessions.I thought your non prostitute girlfriend was an agency producer? She’ll fill you in
131
Do you believe you gov.. simple question.
Goodbye, David Roe! Hello, Divad Salmonegg!
102- SSI
I didn’t see the ad, what’s the name of the movie?
I’m not sure I share your assessment ” Clara Bruni was (and still is) a major asset for Sarko”.
Leftists hate her with a passion since her “betrayal” (she was the poster-girl of parisian bobos before the wedding), and spend quite a lot of time spreading ugly/obscene rumors about her.
On the right, some glamour effect might still play a role but a lot of conservatives were annoyed by the endless soap opera of the end of the first marriage and the choice of her as a second spouse (let’s say that some of my older relatives were not really impressed by the size of the very public list of her former lovers).
All in all, I think she is much more an asset on the international scene than in France (where she keeps a pretty low profile these days).
130. Unless you are either 1. a beautiful young woman, or 2. you have dated a beautiful young woman, you will not have experienced the sheer vicious nastiness that great beauty can provoke in other envious women.
This is no joking matter. A girl committed last week, apparently because she was so violently bullied by the sisterhood, jealous of her prettiness.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2887188/Bullied-because-she-was-pretty.html
There are many many other examples.
If SamCam came across as a touch nervous I think everyone will forgive the sexiness, success, beauty, good breeding, wealth, dashing husband etc. If she was cocky with it that might have been dangerous.
122 Do I believe Yougov? Partly. The lead has narrowed, but Yougov are the ones who consistently give Labour the best scores. Sometimes, you get these house effects. At this point in the run up to the 2005 election, Yougov tended to give scores to the Conservatives that were a bit better than the others - and very comforting it was, if you were a Conservative.
I’m interested in Nick P’s comment. There are people on the Right who detest Cameron, and what he’s done. Some of them, like Gerard Warner, James Delingpole, and Simon Heffer would love nothing more than a hefty Labour victory at the next election. Others (and I suspect they’re the majority) will decide that while their heart may be UKIP (or even BNP) their head is Conservative - and will vote accordingly, particularly if they live in marginal seats.
I suppose, I’ve a foot in both camps. But, I’ll certainly be voting (and working) for the Conservatives in Luton South.
131. Tim, you are typical Labour, always telling people to do things. Nanny knows best eh Tim.
Sometimes spoiled brat Tories need telling.
139 - you may well be right - I hope so.
I’ll try and make it, but won’t be there on the dot of 6.30pm
121. Sorry Mike I was quoting the latest poll from the always reliable Yougov which shows a three point Tory lead.
130. The black toilet attendant Cheryl Cole beat up in a nightclub might not agree.
141. Oh dear, something upset you?
TimT and Tim B had a great time at the Atlanta PB gathering.
Of course we didn’t publicize it and it was just the two of us at Murphy’s in Virginia Highlands - but we had a great time and reminisced about those who couldn’t make it to the gathering.
You missed a great evening!
140 - and then there are people like me who used to vote Tory (in my case since 1964) but gave up on them in disgust in 1997, but who because of David Cameron will be voting Tory this year with real enthusiasm.
134. Sorry Roger, you don’t spend your life selling catfood, it’s shampoo. Of course.
My profound apologies. How could I have got that so totally totally wrong? Cuh. I am ashamed. Shampoo Not Catfood. Shampoo Not Catfood. Gah!!
F*ck. MY BAD. Sorry again.
You’re the ludicrous bearded Roger Who Sells Shampoo. Not the ludicrous bearded Roger Who Sells Catfood.
Got it.
For those unexcited by the dangers of being beautiful, a worthwhile piece from ‘A Man in a Shed’ about a recent Robert peston article about what is lurking just over the economic horizon in 2012:
http://atoryblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/trouble-ahead.html
Humble suggestions for the Dirty Dickk do:
>>> Have a cam (small “c”!) available so that you can broadcast (carefully) selected portions of the event to the PB sistern (sp?) and brothern unable to attend in person.
>>> Provide carfare (or whatever) for Jack W the dean of PBers.
>>> Take up collection so that the pub can afford (at least) two more apostrophes OR alternatively
>>> Christen the lounge “The Tricky Dick Room” in honor of the Special Relationship (and S&S’s first vote?)
140
Sean Fear. I was taking to a friend in the Midlands in a marginal Constituency today. Not enthused by DC but LOATHES Brown. He is a reluctant Conservative voter.
126 Funnily enough, I don’t find Samantha Cameron at all attractive (and I’m not being bitchy).
Your point about attractive women is well taken, though. I know a very attractive Conservative councillor (who’s also on the Approved List) who is detested by some of her more homely colleagues, for no reason other than her looks and intelligence.
133 - Nanny knows best eh Tim.
In North East Somerset, yes.
135 - Do you believe you gov.. simple question.
I’m a bit concerned that you think people who bet on politics have a “belief” in a certain pollster, they all have to be taken into account and only a fool would ignore YouGov, a category you seem to want to place yourself in.
I’d weight ICM the highest when I put my money don, although with so many pollsters around in the run up to the election it’s going to get more difficult to know which are actually moving the odds.
Although you’ll be pleased to know that after banking my spread profits, which I urged you to share in, I can’t lose any money on this election now, even if the Tories sweep Glasgow.
126 But of course you have perfectly enunciated why she may not be an asset.
Basically if Sarah Brown wears an M&S dress people will believe that’s what she does - if Sam Cameron wear one she will be accused of wearing just to seem ‘down with the people’. If she doesn’t she will seen as ‘not down with the people’.
Frankly nothing person against her - just that she simply reinforces as impression that many have of Cameron that he would rather hide.
138 Sean T
I certainly wouldn’t say violent jealous reactions don’t exist, but I also wouldn’t say it was an automatic reaction. I think Robusticus has it right, in that it is the attitude that goes with it. Arrogance, and too much self-awareness, and you’re lost.
And yes, I am (or was) a beautiful woman!
138 - ‘…apparently because she was so violently bullied by the sisterhood, jealous of her prettiness.’
I’d imagine if you’re 13 and frumpy with a big arse you might get some grief from the other schoolkids too.
140 - You always get the dissaffected small minority who cleave to a misguided notion of what the “true religion” should look like. Warner and Heffer are just slowly becoming caricatures of the caricatures they created. It is so richly amusing to watch people turn up a blind alley and then find themselves pursuing it beyond the bounds of lunacy because they are too proud or idiotic to admit that they are wrong.
140: There are some of us that think that if the Hefferlump et al don’t like Cameron then he’s worth voting for.
137, C(fB) - “She’s Out of My League”
re: France’s First Lady, wasn’t she a plus during the election. Kind of the way that ffion was for her hubby, only Sarko needed less help (with Royale as your enemy, who needed friends?)
SSI - that’s a very fine offer! (Missed it on the last thread.) Actually, why don’t you and S&S consider visiting in May? You’ve both been so involved in the discussions that you’d get a kick out of seeing the final lap at first hand.
In the last election, I had two Americans helping for a month (they used their respective annual leave for it and paid their own way, combining it with vacations) - one was an old wargaming opponent of mine, the other a friend of my wife’s who’s a passionate Democrat. We were nervous about having them canvass but he’s so amiable and she’s so cute that it worked out fine. What we had to keep from her was that he voted for George Bush: she’d have killed him.
So Tim - How are you getting along with constructing that list of positive reaons for voting Labour that you promised?
I’m really looking forward to reading it.
Thanks and have a super weekend.
140. You’re wrong on James Delingpole (who I know, vaguely). He may witter on - rather effectively, he’s a good journalist - about how wet Dave is, but in the end I’m pretty sure he loathes Labour much more than he despairs of Cameron.
He wants a Tory victory. I do not know Gerald Warner, but I bet he’s the same. Heffer I dunno.
148 And that’s important. I think Cameron took a calculated risk to lose votes to the Right of him, in order to gain votes to the Left of him. And, every vote that the Conservatives gain from the Left is worth two votes lost to the Right.
If you look at the innards of the polls, it’s clear that the Conservatives are picking up a lot of switcher from Labour and the Lib Dems.
Nick P is picking up the Conservative-haters, who might dislike Labour a lot, but can be motivated to stop a Conservative government.
149. When you have as many awards from your profession as I have from mine I’ll listen to you. Sorry I forgot your ‘worst sex in a book award’ but even that was over ten years ago.
165 not Warner, sean. He is viscerally anti-Dave.
Newer (and better) Tory slogan:
“Don’t Blame Us Cause We’re Beautiful!”
163 Nick Palmer MP
Republicans for Palmer? Now I really have heard it all.
Sorry about your problem, David - very mean-minded of perople to contact your employer about your posts (which were always friendly to your employer anyway). But going anonymous makes sense.
re 146. Roger - but based on a quarter of a century of chronic Labour over-stating the default assumption has to be that the most accurate survey is the one with Labour in the least favourable position.
I know that you are desperately trying to spin it otherwise but it is YouGov that is out on a limb.
On topic, sadly no, I’ll not be able to make a midweek meetup and will probably be campaigning evenings by then anyway.
Off topic, amused by the typo for April 8 in this BBC election guide: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8496591.stm
155. Ah, but SeanF, we know the kind of woman you like. Mumsy, powerful, blonde, voluptuous, dominant, and faintly overripe with a hint of sapphism: Hillary Clinton in her early 50s.
You told us, remember?
152 - I don’t doubt what you say Maggie - but at times people seem to forget that its the move to the Centre Right which has caused the improvement in the Tory fortunes. I truly don’t think Cameron gets anywhere near enough credit for how has brought the Party to a very realistic position of regaining powerfor the first time in 13 years.By 2005 people were getting pretty fed up with Labour - but instead of turning to the Toies they went to the LibDems. Without Cameron I believe the LibDems would be looking at getting on for 100 seats in May - the Tories would have been seen as an irrelevance. Its the stark reality of what was facing the Tories that the Heffers.Tebbits and Warners of this world still don’t get. They genuinely think that more of the same - or even a more extreme version of the same would do the trick. Laughable if it wasn’t for the fact that at least Tebbit is a good guy.
SkyNewsI’m doing a SkyNews discussion on betting on politics with John McCririck tomorrow after 11am.
re 173 well at least the dates are now right after I complained yesterday.
176 - That should be worth a watch.
156. “even if the Tories sweep Glasgow”
It’s dirty work, but someone has to do it.
170 Its Democrats and Republicans for Palmer… Yeah right… Wool over eyes….
166.Sean, its interesting seeing Clegg now trying Brown’s failed strategy of wooing Tories by suddenly becoming a fan of Thatcher. Its almost like they are trying to bump the Tories rightwards again and off the centre ground, but I suspect that like Brown it will do more harm among their own supporters and activists.
Sadly, the tragedy of losing a child may help immunize Samantha Cameron. Doesn’t matter how rich and famous you are, that is THE great equalizer.
And that’s the real point about political spouses, with a few exceptions (and think wibbler was correct upthred re: Teresa Kerry) is that they humanize and validate politicos for voters.
Of course it’s hard for the mass of humanity (and womanity) to identify with the likes of Carla Bruni & Jackie Kennedy - or Eleanor from 180 perspective - and their spouses. BUT even here, there is realization that this is a person who gets to see (whether they want to or not) the President/Prime Minister put their pants (or pants suit) on one leg at a time.
174 Or Nadine Dorries.
We’re considering getting a licence to open throughout the night on election night. Would anyone be interested?
I (the landlord) am a long time reader and sometime commenter on this site.
Sean Fear - 77/142 - “Others (and I suspect they’re the majority) will decide that while their heart may be UKIP (or even BNP) their head is Conservative - and will vote accordingly, particularly if they live in marginal seats” Nail on head there in my opinion - at present I still intend to vote UKIP but I know it’s just a wasted vote.
Nick Palmer must be extremely pleased that the Conservatives took control of Nottinghamshire County Council.
171. If a character called Mick Parma ever starts posting on here, we’ll know that you’ve done the same.
176 - Good call, you’ll certainly win the laydees vote in any voodoo phone poll following that.
Jacky won’t even have to keep pressing last number redial.
Its quite entertaining watching a group of guys discussing how bitchy women can be whilst having a cat fight among themselves.
Meow.
167. Roger, please.
Awards for advertising???? That’s like “Year’s Best Dustman”. Top Toilet Attendant of 2009! The Nobel Prize for Feeding Swill to the Pigs.
What you do is guide the sewage of capitalism into the right drain.
Advertising is well paid, cause it’s grimly bleak, and spiritually pointless. Like prostitution.
That’s exactly the reason the advertising industry is so full of awards, cause deep down everyone in the industry knows that what they are doing is dismally pointless and sad, and they really wanted to be real writers/directors/producers but they didn’t have the talent.
So they desperately try to convince themselves otherwise by giving each other awards.
Sorry.
176 - Mr Smithson, Make sure you get some Cheltenham tips. Will one of the many excellent sporting tipsters on this fine site be furnishing us with some of those next week?
163- I would love to see the action first-hand if circumstances were to permit. That’s quite unlikely, but then again one never knows! And no offense to SSI, but I think I would be a much more effective Ugly American (can we have a contest?)!
183, SF - NDMP is perhaps “out of your league”. And most certainly out of her mind!
re 183. Sean - we must keep off the subject of Nadine - Rod Crosby has the hots for her. She is the only woman and only Tory that I’ve ever seen him say anything positive about.
She, of course, like Rod is scouser.
89 - David.
TSE did this a while ago.
He came back with a new identity, a wife and twins.
Is there something you would like to tell us?
153. Its all about deep insecurity, it seems instinctive in many women. A woman who can gain the glances of another womans man is automatically an enemy.
Certain parts of what makes an attractive woman, more attractive can cause even more jealousy and rage. An over weight woman will be particularly sensitive to slim woman who turns her mans head, the worst of all, however, is a woman who has small breasts, the neurosis will be palpable, when an attractive woman with large breasts gets a lingering look from her husband.
176. Bad luck, Mike
172 - if YouGov’s 3% lead is “out on a limb”, I find it interesting that you earlier implied that the “true” lead is an outlier on the other extreme, 13%.
Was your comment a reflection on actual polling, or spin?
153- I am a bit younger than you suggest, SSI! Any votes I cast for Nixon would have necessarily been part of a fraud scarcely less outrageous than Watergate itself.
192 - So thats Sean, Rod and Nadine all praying that she actually has two homes.
Ref the Osborne / Clarke discussion above, firstly, tim’s maths at [64] is wrong. The odds and implied chances with Paddy Power are:
Osborne: 1/5 = 83.3%
Hammond: 10/1 = 9.1%
Clarke: 33/1 = 3.0%
So going by the odds, Osborne is actually about 28 times more likely to be Chancellor than Clarke and about nine times more likely than Hammond, not 150 and 50 respectively.
Is there any value in the two Tory outsiders? Not really. The job’s Osborne’s to throw away if the Conservatives form a government. Politics being politics, it is possible that he could make such a big gaffe that he gets ruled out of contention. However, having been shadow chancellor for over four years without doing that, I can’t see it happening in the next two months.
If the next Chancellor’s not Osborne, it will very probably be a Labour MP. Vince is far too short in the betting: Clegg couldn’t really allow Cable to take a much more senior position than him and Labour couldn’t offer the Lib Dems Chancellor and either Foreign Sec or Deputy PM. Besides, the odds on a formal Lab-LD coalition ought to be quite long even before personnel issues get brought into play.
192. Well, every Great Man needs his Eva Braun. She was pretty right wing too, I believe.
re 196. My comment was about the polling form-book which Labour spinners try to avoid. It might change at the election but for thge moment the default assumption has to be that Labour is being over-stated.
Surely Cameron’s gamble in moving the party to the centre is that his right wing supporters have nowhere else to go. The gamble involves UKIP not picking up too many disaffected Tories though… but when push comes to shove I am sure most will rather see Dave in No 10 than Gordon. It worked for Blair: most left wing Labourites still voted for him because there was no credible alternative.
It is not necessary to get voters ecstatic to get them to vote for you; they just have to believe you’re a little bit better than the alternative. “Hearts and minds” and “sealing the deal” are bullshit in my view, you just get my vote, once every four or five years, inbetween I reckon the only suitable response to a government is to oppose it.
I’m not sure, given our economic situation, that this really was the best message for Clegg to give his troops:
Clegg Tells Lib Dems To ‘Go For Broke’
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Liberal-Democrat-Leader-Nick-Clegg-Opens-Partys-Spring-Conference-In-Birmingham/Article/201003215572855?f=rss
201 - the polling form book would suggest that YouGov has, by far, the best recent record. Yes?
190, S&S - Ok, you win, I’m hollering uncle!
195 - Shadsy.
I see you moved your seat markets a tad today, are you a Recidivist Angus Reid Understater?
194 notme
If such female behaviour exists, it would seem to be a sensible strategy on the part of the “selfish gene”, and similar male behaviours would be expected too.
194. Quite, it’s just genetic rivalry, the procreative steeplechase - and men are just as competitive as women - it’s just that men are more open in their rivalry.
Men will boast in pubs, compete in business, even brawl in pubs, to get the right woman. Girls, being a little more delicate and inhibited, compete with equal viciousness for the right man, but in more subtle ways (snide gossip, bitchiness, boob jobs, wearing better clothes, etc)
Neither gender is morally superior to the other. Just different.
199 - I agree David. I do think though Cameron has recognised that Osbourne has a problem with the voters and hence the voters (and City’s) first choice for Chancellor, Ken Clark will basically front the Tory election drive on the economy.
Oh goody, more ringfenced spending…
Britain’s science budget is to be protected from public spending cuts as the sector is vital to the country’s prosperity, Lord Mandelson, the business secretary, said on Friday.
The Royal Society, the national academy of sciences, issued a report this weekdefending the economic value of science amid widespread fears of looming cuts, shared by the Russell Group of leading universities.
But Lord Mandelson told the Financial Times after addressing an audience at Manchester University: “There are no plans to cut science spending. We have made a colossal investment in science and we are not looking to reverse that.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/101587a2-2e10-11df-b85c-00144feabdc0.html
re 204. Not correct. At the 2005 general election the top pollster was NOP.
S&S, must say I was impressed (if that’s the word) by John Boehner’s recent pledge (if that’s the word) that if GOP regains power in the House they will ban all earmarks . . . for one year!
And this from the folks who brought us the term limits that never were . . .
162- SSI
At the time of the election, Sarko was still married to Cecilia (his second wife).
She played no role at all in the campaign and many thought she had accepted to come back to him (after a much-publicized 6 month separation in 2005) only for the time of the campaign.
They got divorced in October 2007.
He only married Carla in February 2008.
Guardian CiF - Malcolm Tucker’s election briefing - Current location? Midway up shit creek
“They know the Tories are dipping. But we are still losing. We are not winning. I don’t think I can stress this enough”
204. Ash.
No. YouGov did best at the London mayoral election, true — but has since radically changed its methodology.
Its current track record is the same as ARPO — that is to say, nil.
As people here keep telling you. Now, please, stop trolling.
& 204 YouGov did brilliantly at the 2008 London mayoral election but with a completely different weightings structure.
Hopefully we’ll get an ICM poll this weekend - the firm that I take most notice of.
194. PS Viz Magazine’s “The Fat Slags” is very sharp on the sullen, acidic envy of fat birds for their slimmer, sexier sisters.
“she’s no better than she should be” etc
87: Bob Knox @ 20:48
The same thought has occurred to me.
I remember a couple of years ago a discussion, I am sure on this site, where a poster confessed to having signed up to You Gov under false colours (lied abot newspaper and past voting etc.) with the specific intention of getting asked to take part in political polls and then give answers which didn’t match his profile. So a concerted effort to inflitrate and skew the results is possible.
I think that you would need a lot of people and some organisation for it to work, neither of which Labour lack (the UNITE operation for the marginals seems fairly slick) and an amoral and single minded determination to keep power at any cost (again Labour have form).
So it may be possible. Has it been done? Who knows? Maybe in years to come we will find out from someone’s memoirs.
199 - Sorry David, I’m drinking.
You exclude the option that Osborne does not intend to become CoE.
As for Labour MP’s you are right up to a point although yough can’t rule out Cable if theres a 280/280 ish result, he’s a bargaining chip that would immediately register in any “what should the Govt look like” polls that would proliferate in those circumstances.
And also there’s the Labour continuation option.
My bets on this, which aren’t for big money are.
Hammond 40/1
Clarke 33/1
Cable 25/1
Benn 100/1
E.Miliband 100/1
If its Balls I’ll be in jail for burning my local labour party office down.
199. Good post, and who’d a thunk it, Tim’s maths hopelessly wrong. Perhaps he should take a lesson in maths/stats from …..Chris Grayling?
211 - and the Mayoral election? Clearly that showed that YougGov is excellent in its methodological design.
I was actually quite stunned to see your earlier comment about the Tories: “13% isn’t a flagging campaign”.
214 - thanks for the link Christina.Very funny read. Interesting though that his answer is basically to smear the Conservatives.
219 - If Osborne didn’t inted being CoE after the election he wouldn’t still be Shadowing that post.
The Lib Dems famous new PPC has given an interview to the Times…
Ms Arrowsmith has been married for two years to Tim, who has his own engineering company and has no objection to her career choice. He is apparently not bothered about the porn either.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7060533.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
Polling news
On Friday nights there is no YouGov daily poll and I’m not aware of anything else in the pipeline this evening.
Tomorrow night will be different.
211. Not overall it wasn’t. Luck plays a huge role in determining who will be closest in their final poll. A more sophisticated analysis indicated that NOP’s overall record wasn’t that great, although none of the pollsters in 2005 were far off the mark.
Front pages
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6533/front_pages_saturday_13_march.html
225 What can we expect tomorrow, Mike? Cheers.
212- Earmark reform could be great election year politics if it is played well. We shall see…
I’ll do my best to get along on 31 March. It’s the night before I go away for 10 days on holiday, so it may be difficult, but since it’s only 10 minutes walk from my flat, I’ll try to come if I can.
219 - You would have had to form an orderly queue, I would suggest. Maybe it could be a political arson version of The Murder On The Orient Express.
87/218 Bob Knox/ HurstLlama
Well if they have infiltrated it then they likely did so some considerable time ago and in numbers and have now called a strike (considering the potential for Unite being involved I suppose it could be). You see the thing is that the Yougov polls are lacking sufficient Labour identifiers and because they are lacking them they are applying their own judgement through the weightings as to how they would vote.
77 A bit of both i think. People are drifting rightwards in a fairly vague anti-Labour way then moving on again over particular incidents. For example a chunk of ex-labour types that had drifted over to the LD or Tory part of the spectrum before the BJ4BW thing dislike the LD or Tory response to it and so up sticks and move to the next stop on the right i.e some of the LD ones move to Tory and some of the Tory move to Ukip etc. At the same time those people are being replaced by newer people drifting away from Labour.
In a nutshell i think it’s that the Tories aren’t providing a home for those votes just a stop on the line.
216.
Mike,
So do I !
I do think they slightly overstate Lab, like others do, by 2ish %!
You can bet with Paddy Power on which pollster will be most accurate but the values rubbish: six pollsters, the odds ranging from 2/1 (YouGov) to 5/1 (Mori and Populus). Angus Reid are second favourites.
The position in the field of YouGov and AR is probably about right: being the most extreme one way and the other gives them much more of the field than the middly pollsters and the lone riders did get it right in 1992 and 1997 so being ‘in the pack’ is no guarantee of accuracy.
That’s a pity. Can we take a pop at Peter Kellner anyway?
re 221. I realise that after a quarter of a century of enjoying the fruits of chronic over-statment in the polls that it must be quite hard for you when a pollster like AR comes along. I gave my view on their figures in an earlier post.
You seem to think it is an entitlement that Labour should be over-stated - hence the almost hysterical reaction to AR.
PB’s pollster is far less out of line than ICM was in 1997 - and who ended up as winner then - ICM.
ICM are excellent. They may currently be understating Labour - it will be interesting to see if they come more into line with YouGov in the next poll. Although there isn’t actually much in it.
Looking at all the serious polsters, the lead is probably in mid single figures, 2% - 8%, but very volatile.
Good to see the Mirror hacks have such solidarity with the bruvvers
http://twitter.com/vincentmoss/status/10392162316
“YouGov did best at the London mayoral election, true — but has since radically changed its methodology.”
A polling organization should only change its algorithm after an election in which their prediction can actually be calibrated against the known result.
Changing the methodology mid-stream is very poor practice.
A new pundit - surprisingly well informed about current polls…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/12/malcolm-tucker-election-briefing
re 238. How do you know that ICM is understating Labour - just because it makes you feel uncomfortable? What a dumb comment.
236 - On a night when there’s no You Gov polls, I think we should attack Kellners wife.
221. In the London Mayoral elections Yougov used a methodology based on past vote (1st preferences). For some reason in that election they adopted the past vote method that all the other pollsters use for their national polls.
However, Yougov, in their national polls uniquely use Party ID weighting which is a completely different method. It is also the part of the methodology that some of us think is now broken…..
237 - Mike, don’t bother with Ash. He’s just going to repeat his same two points over and over again. That a) since YG predicted the Mayoral election right, this means they are always right and b) saying otherwise is somehow smearing them.
And he’ll make both of these while ignoring post after post after post after post telling him that YG have changed their methodology and/or that just because they got it right last time, it doesn’t mean they have this time around.
243. After you then Tim…..
221 - I think that’s a little unfair. I am a Labour supporter, but don’t see why that’s relevant. I was commenting on the polling.
Angus Reid are interesting, I have nothing against them. It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether Others gain as many votes as the Lib Dem in the next election.
229, S&S - fact that Democrats failed (utterly) to latch onto the anti-earmark issue is another reason why what little hair I’ve got left atop my fool head is rapidly being pulled out!
238. ICM had a lead of 9%, Populus were equivalent to 10% and AR are at 13%. Are these not serious pollsters? Who are these serious pollsters you are referring to?
243
Tim your comments upthread presuppose that as far as the GE is concerned, the only thing you care about is your bets. Of course you and I know that this is not the case..
243 - to be fair, she is by every single account, really shit at her job.
238. Ash: Looking at all the serious polsters, the lead is probably in mid single figures, 2% - 8%, but very volatile.
Marginally less risible than you were trolling last night, but still (as OGH would say), complete bollocks.
250. MTF.
He doesn’t have any bets. Welchers never actually bet with bookies.
219. Even if Osborne didn’t want the job, it’s too late now. He couldn’t avoid it without damaging his own and his party’s credibility having put a lot of effort into building expectations of what a Tory government would look like.
I agree that Cable shouldn’t be written off but you 25/1 looks a lot closer to the mark to me than the 8/1 on offer now. As for your other bets, Hammond and Ed Miliband look the best value and Benn and Clarke below where they should be.
My own bets are Osborne at 7/2 and Balls at 25/1. Sadly, both were wimpier bets than they should have been.
242 - I guess I was using the same intuition that you used earlier when you said that the real Tory lead was 13%! We all have our hopes and gut feelings.
I can’t call your comment dumb though, as you’re the boss and I like your site…!
Re: the “Dirty Dickk” rendezvous, perhaps Ms Span should be invited?
After all, she IS an expert when it comes to spread betting . . .
On topic, can’t make it — working. If only it were the previous week…
Er, has anyone got a really f*cking great idea for a thriller that they don’t need? That I can use?
All suggestions welcome. Please.
If the idea is halfway useful I promise a dinner at the Groucho (restaurant not brasserie). If the idea is brilliant and I use it in toto I will give a cut of the royalties.
No joke. Serious offer. I have a fourth thriller to write in 3 years, a contract to fulfil, and I’ve run out of notions.
Mildly Desperate of Primrose Hill (borders)
Oops…
British law firm cleared way for Lehman cover-up
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article7059592.ece
36, apologies for the tardy reply, Mr. Tibs, I left after my post on this thread.
Hmm. Unsure about qualifying. I’ll have to check P3 and then the various odds.
For the race I have a few thoughts. The first corner may well see a lot of drivers going off (long cars, slow speed). Hamilton’s 4 lap hard tyre shredding performance doesn’t bode too well for him.
254 - Osborne 7/2, was that 2007 or on Purnell night?
Am I the only one to be troubled by this BNP ruling - basically it can’t pledge to throw out all immigrants (or whatever) because that would make someone from the ethnic minorities reluctant to join it and is thus discriminatory. So what, say, if I said I don’t want to join a party that associates with Latvian homophobes? Would the Tories have to pull out of the ECR?
258. SeanT
How about a psycho who goes around butchering dishonest and sleazy politicians?
Sort of Jack the Ripper meets The Thick Of It?
DEAR GOD at that Lib Dem conference. They really are a particular breed aren’t they?
258, not sure if this would count, but you could have a slight Indiana Jones/Lara Croft/Nathan Drake rip-off, revolving around Alexander the Great’s final resting place. You’d be able to flit about to exotic locations (Greece, Egypt, Iraq etc) and the find would be priceless. I think Alexander’s mentioned in the Bible (probably not in a good way) so you could include nutty zealots, or Seleucid/Ptolemaic descendents.
258. I do have a brilliant idea for a thriller however I’m afraid I’m using it myself (very slowly).
243, 251. Mrs Peter Kellner aka the EU Foreign Minister, is also, apparently the best paid female politician IN THE WORLD.
This despite having never been elected to anything ever, and being about as useful as a crepe paper jimmy hat, and looking like a melted plastic donkey. She was given the job precisely because she is fairly crap.
It occurred to me today that we have a new form of governance: Mediocracy - government by the mediocre. Our rules are the least offensive, the middling and fumbling, the earnest and slightly rubbishy, the keen but geeky sad sacks, the Mrs Peter Kellners of this world.
How did this happen?
“Complete bollocks”. “Troll”. “Dumb”. “Don’t bother”. “Risible bollocks”.
All in response to half a dozen posts politely pointing out that YouGov are renowned for accuracy, and my opinion that Labour are not far behind the Tories!
You wouldn’t think that what I said was controversial enough for people to respond so viciously!
266. Clive Cussler has already written a variant on that one I think.
252 - I am unaware that she had started work.
What is is that she does?
262. Purnell night. In 2007 I was sitting very nervously on the 7/1 I’d laid against there being an election then which came close to being my worst ever betting loss.
232: jsfl @ 22:06
A fair point, but if I was planning an infiltration it would be a false flag job, as per the chap on here a couple of years ago. My people would be signing on to get Tory identifiers and then answering as intending to vote labour.
The problem would be that You Gov is awash with Conservative panel members, so I would need a very large number of people to have any chance that a sufficient number of them were included in each poll so as to have an effect. However, judging by the posts on here You Gov do seem to use the same people over and over, so it would have to be a long term operation which commenced a couple of years ago.
Operational security then becomes a problem. A large number of people involved over a long period of time means a high chance of a leak. Unless, you have got someone on the inside working for you and can ensure your people are included in the panel. Then you don’t need so many people and the whole thing can be set up in a short period of time.
At this point we are entering a conspiracy theory of silly proportions. An infiltration operation would be possible but not, I think, likely.
243. I thought we did Kellner’s wife with Sarah Brown? Haven’t any of them got adolescent children?
Ms Porn Arrowsmith is not a LibDem but supports Labour
Does Nich know this?
Anna is liberal and open-minded but politically she supports The Labour Party, for all its sins. Anna lives in Soho, London.
Off her web site
http://www.easyote.co.uk/erotic_home/about.html
I desperately wish there was a market on the next Home Secretary.
269. Ash: All in response to half a dozen posts
You can’t count, either.
You’ve been pursuing your relentless trolling for several days, not taking anything you’ve been told into account.
It’s no wonder you’re starting to get responses of the kind you have today.
I suggest you now stop digging.
270, so? Isn’t there a sort of similar pre-Dan brown Da Vinci code book?
Mr. Thomas could use my idea as the new Da Vinci code. But with better writing. And more success. And more money [of which I would get a small proportion which is nevertheless a huge amount].
267. If you can’t bring it off, I’ll give you folding money for the idea. Serieux.
266. Interesting. Needs an underlying concept… but an interesting milieu. Will think. Ta.
I love Samantha Cameron.
Vote Conservative and Carla Sarkozy will have some competition.
265. Please explain - not sure what point you are making
265. Please explain - not sure what point you are making
83 “I’m coming to the conclusion (not that I’m biased or anything) that it’s got stuck at an unhelpful halfway mark.”
I think that’s exactly what’s happened. They were doing fine till the Lisbon announcement which annoyed the right and then in trying to square that circle they’ve ended up in no man’s land instead.
Whatever they do it needs to be consistent
–consistently PC: very bad idea.
–consistently right-wing: i think this *would* have been the best line for the current environment *if* they’d been consistently taking the same line for the last couple of years.
–consistently fluffy, vague and blancmange-like: This worked very well up till the Lisbon thing. Personally i think this is their best bet alongside talking about the deficit 24/7
OMG
I have just seen that joke of a UK prime minister on ITV news, sucking up to Sarkozy.
Brown just looks so stupid, when he sucks up to other leaders.
He has single handedly made this country look a joke!
His whole body language looks desperate!
259. SeanT
There was a 14th Century French chap named Philippe De Mezieres, who was quite a big name back then. He spent most of his life trying to persuade various notables of the time to launch a crusade to retake the Holy Land. To that end, he proposed a new military order called “The Order of the Passion of Christ”, who’d be at the vanguard of his new crusade. None of it ever really got off the ground, but he’s never made an appearance in fiction, and it’s the sort of thing that some modern day nutters might just recreate, what with the Middle East being such a lively area.
273. Indeed and I do recall Peter Kellner recently (was it on here?) was at pains to point out that they do monitor applications to reduce infiltration to the minimum…….
I don’t think infiltration explains whats going on at all. The obvious answer is that something like one quarter to one third of Labour Identifiers on the panel no longer can be bothered to answer and as a result the weightings are making up the difference (correctly or not). We can only speculate why that might be?
210
‘210.Oh goody, more ringfenced spending’
Could Nick or any other Labour supporter please tell us if there is any public spending that is not ringfenced?
277 - as you can see from the fact that I’m addressing my posts to people personally, I’m not “trolling”, and I am taking resposes into account.
That’s why I’m replying to you.
So back to polling. Yes, YouGov have changed their methodology. But some people seemed to have huge faith in their expertise and methodological judgement (including changes) a couple of years ago. What’s changed now that they are showing less favourable numbers to the Tories?
279 - What criteria are you looking for in your thriller? The Genesis Secret was heavily dependent on history - would you do one that was firmly 21st century based in 21st century problems?
I have half of a plot, based around London’s very mixed immigrant background. It needs better writing skills than I have.
279 - Sean, Hollywood are currently making a film featuring Leonardo da Vinci as an action hero, with an army of robots, battling the forces of Satan.
Just pick a random historical figure, give him some funky sidekick, and nick some bad guys from one or other holy book, and you’re already doing better than them
258, ST -
Can you be 21st’s answer to Daphne du Maurier? That is, a thriller set in atmospheric Cornwall (including the Lands End carpark) involving MK, ORMLP, a highly-sexxed Tory, the ghost of Harold Wilson AND a sinister LibDem vicar?
No doubt that Cornwall can sell more books than even romantic Bedfordshire!
Sorry if my idea is too Scilly. BUT reckon you’ve got lots of local color in your brain cells, let alone your finger tips.
279. I intend to give it a serious go once the election’s out of the way. If it does all come to nothing, I’ll let you know because I do genuinely think there’s something in it.
258 nope but I have a nifty little play I can’t find the oomph to write
(frickin awesome concept in my noggin though)
If it were me, I might be tempted by the classics - film noir chase through a European city, unknown hunters, brief glimpses of normality, much more detailed expereince of panic, pain and despair, pauses for telephone calls to plead, beg, say goodbye, call for help/build a partial picture of the backstory. Lots of snatch decisions drawing it all like a chinese finger trap into an inescapable lonely, desperate and final defeat
277 - Somebody posted a link to your election forecasts the other day.
It certainly put your posts into perspective.
Nick Clegg has stolen Browns election slogan: “Going For Broke”
I have read the Lib/Dems are saying it is an old web page?
Anna has been a Lib Dem party member for a year, according to this article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7059208.ece
Mrs Arrowsmith has been a member of the Liberal Democrat party for a year and voted for it for five years after turning her back on Labour over the Iraq war.
No questions for candidate approval: just a candidate who’s been a little careless leaving old web pages lying around and reachable.
Sam Cameron is dull as dishwater. She might’ve been given some edge to her character if the Labour 97 vote was true but alas she is just the same as the rest of em. Sarah Brown seems to have a personality but seems a total opposite of her husband!
214, Chris (from B) - that’s right, how quickly one forgets. Do you think there are more than a few French voter who also have false memory on that score?
279, I have thought very briefly about the idea (it’s not my genre really, but reading about Alexander it’s an obvious question) and have one or two bits more to add.
Seleucus ruled what became Iran, Iraq and Turkey, his descendents reigning for a few centuries. Ptolemy ruled Egypt, and first stole the remains from Perdiccas (Alexander’s immediate successor, who was not up to the job). The remains were kept in Egypt for some years, and were visited by the Romans (who reckoned only Alexander was an outsider worthy of devotion and admiration) until they were lost.
Some Bible stuff (the first is a prophecy supposedly pre-dating Alexander by 250 years):
http://www.keyway.ca/htm2000/20000326.htm
http://www.searchgodsword.org/enc/isb/view.cgi?number=T381
288. Ash: What’s changed now that they are showing less favourable numbers to the Tories?
Read the Kellner interview thread and those immediately following.
YG have concocted a methodology that puts an artificial floor on Labour’s support.
But in a way, that’s besides the point - you’ve continually pointed to YG’s track record, but since they’ve changed their methodology they have no track record.
295 - I thought it was “We’re thinking absolutely whatever it is that you’re thinking”…
249- SSI, both parties only seem to see reason to do the “good government thing” when they’re out of power and “see the light.” Now that the Republicans are out of power, they’ve discovered the evils of earmarks and plan to banish them to Hell. The Democrats, on the other hand, find earmarks quite delightful and won’t be interested in reforming them again until they are out of power (again).
On another note, it looks like our friend Philippe has really found himself on the wrong side of the tides of Obamacare. I see that it has skyrocketed today on intrade from the 40’s to the 60’s. The Democrats’ expressed confidence that they will find a way to ram Obamacare through has greatly inspired the betting populace.
297
That’s very insightful of you after seeing 60 secs of clips on ITV news.. If you are going to troll, try making it less obvious.
252 “to be fair, she is by every single account, really shit at her job.”
Yes but, no but, you need to know where those accounts are coming from and how many of them are friends of Dor.. Mandy.
I don’t seem to be able to e-mail Fat Steve.
Steve, if you are reading this, mine’s a pint.
300 - Sigh. All pollsters change methodologies, almost constantly.
So let me put it more simply. A couple of years ago some people were certain that YouGov and their experts knew how to do accurate polls and statistics. Now, apparently, they don’t.
So what’s changed since they started showing less favourable Tory numbers?
302. I hardly see how over a year of back and forth negotiations, countless summits with stakeholders and standard passage through both the Senate and the House counts as “ramming through”.
275 ‘Ms Porn Arrowsmith is not a LibDem but supports Labour’
Why the surprise? Vote Yellow, Get Brown.
299. The Seleucid Empire really deserves more attention than it gets. Fascinating part of ancient history, of which I sadly know very little.
The Beeb’s take on the Sam Cameron interview:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8565202.stm
SkyNews also covering now…..
New Nokia to #10,
Nice coverage of Charlie Boy, Unite, Gordo and the Labour Party…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1257405/BA-strike-Cabin-crew-announce-March-strike-dates.html
re 269 Ash I take it you’re not used to internet forums. If you keep making the same point over and over and over again and don’t answer reasonable requests to back up your views then you will get that sort of response. And why? Because you will have just proved that you’re a troll. Now please provide the evidence that “YouGov are renowned for accuracy” other than just the London mayoral elections.
291, SSI - sorry, forgot to mention some plot (in more ways than one) lines:
>>> ultra-extremist wing of MK seeking to make it’s sick dream of “Greater Cornwall” a reality by driving the Saxon back to vincity of Shepard’s Bush roudabout.
>>> internatial leftie conspiracy involving heavies from Brittany, Isle of Man, etc, etc (including the World Music section of the Parsippany, NJ branch of Barnes and Noble)
>>> sweet young Icelandic ethnomusicologist who a) thinks (with some reason) that the Golden Triangle is between her sturdy Viking thighs; and b) seeks revenge for her late brother, an honest fisherperson who was lured into the twisted world of fishstick specluation, and ended up leaping to his untimely demise from the 2nd story of the tallest building in Rejkavik.
The killers of James Bulger should not have been prosecuted for his murder, the new Children’s Commissioner says today in a call for the age of criminal responsibility to be raised from 10 to 12 years old.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article7060549.ece
258. SeanT
How about something ultra contemporary and topical…
20 years ago, a hideous crime was committed by a child, who was given a new identity.
Now, the hero of the piece is mistaken for the grown-up offender, and he is in a race against time to find out why the police have apparently confirmed his identity…
I like Sam Cameron. Her “Dave is just a normal guy” stuff doesn’t wash of course - we all know he’s pretty much Royalty. But he does seem like a nice enough chappy all the same.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-Saturday-March-13-2010/Media-Gallery/201003215572890?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15572890_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Saturday_March_13%2C_2010
re 306 look you stupid arsehole people have told you ad nauseam what has changed. Now why don’t you just disappear.
Why does Ash care if punters dont take YouGov seriously?
Punters have no agenda to undermine YouGov, they just dont believe it. It is a personal thing. Why does Ash (and others) care? It is almost as if they have something to gain from YouGov being believed.
ps.
I love Samantha Cameron. I challenge David Cameron.
307- The ramming, or Rahmming if you prefer, is not really about the celerity of the process, but rather the pretzel-like procedural contortions the Democrats are planning to use to somehow pass a unipartisan, wildly unpopular bill.
309, importantly, it also sounds fantastic. Seleucid… sounds almost science fictiony.
I know little of the time, except for a bit of the Diadochi era, but there’s plenty of stuff that could be thrown into a thriller as interesting historical snippets.
When Perdiccas lost the body he lived only a short time before dying. Ptolemy took it and his dynasty was the longest lived of any of Alexander’s Successors.
4th century AD it was lost:
http://www.alexanderstomb.com/main/index.html
Wasn’t that roughly the peak of the Roman Empire? Convenient, it could be painted as losing the corpse meant losing the empire.
Anyway, off to bed for me.
French getting peed off at Osborne and Cameron. Raised a little joke about “the Sarkozy box” that a delegate stood on behind a podium “with the British Govt.” according to Newsnight.
Got to be worth a few points to the Tories.
314 - is this the woman Ed Balls appointed because she was a Labour toadie, despite even a Labour-dominated committee telling him she was rubbish?
The Conservative leader’s wife said “Dave” was “different” from her other friends at the time they met because he held an important Government job.
That would be the “bit part” on Black Wednesday then.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7429754/Samantha-Cameron-My-love-for-Dave.html
306. Ash.
You’ve clearly decided to ignore my point which refutes your assertion and start banging on about something else.
Typical troll behaviour. I’m done.
166. There may be millions of non-voters on the right of the spectrum. Evidence shows Labour victories were primarily caused by Conservatives choosing to abstain. If everybody that had a negative view of the Labour government had voted in 2005 to remove them the Conservatives would have won by a landslide.
The ‘motivate the right’ doctrine was adopted by the stratagists for George Bush Jr who successfully won two victories in a row based on it. Only when Bush drifted dramatically to the left early in his second term did his popularity ratings take a big dive - e.g. adopting a pro-immigration stance on illegal immigration, endorsing the Dubai Ports takeover of the New York Ports Authority, and colluding in massive bank bailouts, etc.
It is clearly not true that you only win through difting to the centre ground, not if the centre is in occupied by left-wing extremists as we see in Britain at the moment. Most views regarded as ‘centre’ are not held by a majority of the public. E.g. the UK ‘centre’ is pro-immigration, but 80% of the pubic are anti-immigration, the UK ‘centre’ is anti-death penalty, but 60% of the public support the death penalty, the UK ‘centre’ wants higher taxes, but 55% of the public want lower taxes, the UK centre is ’soft’ on crime, but 60% of the public want more prisons built.
So the centre strategy, if defined in the above terms, is a guaranteed vote loser, and this explains why the Tory vote has been drifting. The Conservatives have become too left-wing.
George Bush won two elections through simply saying ‘the other lot are left-wing, I’m not’. Take a lesson out of his book - the UK population is fairly similar in viewpoint, it is the Labour-controlled estalishment that is left-wing, not the public.
Through going too far to the left the Conservatives may fall into a trap where they are chasing a dwindling number of left-wing voters, while ignoring a massive majority of right-wing voters which is increasing in size.
Britain has definitely shifted further to the right over the last 10 years. The Conservaties need to fight the right election - the current, not past ones.
Their sole goal shoud be to look modern, not left-wing.
It is almost as if perception of YouGov is Ash’s raison d’etre.
ps.
Samantha come with me and live in fields of azure.
318 - even more simply, then.
If YouGov knew how to change their methodology in the name of accuracy earlier, what makes you think they’ve got their changes wrong now that they are showing the Tories less favourably?
Same experts. Same analysis of what tweaks are needed. Same with every pollster, every day.
David Cameron doesn’t get on with Sarkosi we are now told and we are now learning why Osborne has been sidelined for the next few months. A Tory government would be une catastrophe. Newsnight not to be missed. ‘Nasty Little Englanders’.
329 Roger, what do ze Dutch friends think when they’re not smoking de hemp?
Who is that French goon on newsnight? His accent is a bit Inspector Clouseau.
So. Irritating frenchies want British people to vote Gordon Brown.
320. Reconciliation is a completely accepted procedure and has been used regularly by the Republicans for decades. Legislation deserves a simple up and down vote, as written for in the constitution, and that is what it is getting. It is complete hypocrisy for healthcare opponents to bemoan abuse of procedure when they have abused every hold, filibuster and parliamentary procedure to try to stop it.
The Democrats hold the White House and large majorities in congress because they were legitimately voted for in very large numbers. They deserve to enact their agenda.
302, S&S - am not entirely sure which (betting) side Philippe is on these days. My guess is that only his bookie knows for sure!
As for earmarks perhaps the distance from 1994 means that target swing voters won’t remember the term limits fiasco. BUT perhaps they will, thus undercutting the effectiveness of those great reformers Mitch “Play Ball but not with Bunning on the Mound” McConnell and John “It’s pronounced ‘Bonn-er’ not Bone-er’!” Boehner . . .
323 - Yup thats the one.
Yuck, who’s the ghastly French bloke on Newsnight?
329 That French journo on Newsnight would be worth about half a million returning UKippers if it was more widely seen…
329.
This french guy is a plank, the French Polly Toynbee, why should anyone listen to him?
164 - “So Tim - How are you getting along with constructing that list of positive reaons for voting Labour that you promised?”
Dream on.
tim has posted 18k posts and not one of them has been positive about Labour, they just attack and smear the other parties.
Now, like me you might be a tad confused as to why he would post on here like an obsessive for up to 18 hours a day on behalf of a party even he says he cannot vote for.
Of course that claim was probably just another lie to add to the long list
324 tim, are you still here? Shouldn’t a busy little house husband like you be folding the washing, or dusting?
Brilliant Newsnight
Forget the future funfair
‘Vote Labour, it will please the French’
SeanT, perhaps you could get in on the werewolve craze? Great way to meet (and nibble the necks of) new chicks!
Plus you could collaborate with your namesake and fellow pbers SeanFear: “Werewolves of Luton”
Evening all and I see Ash has returned. So Ash tell us, do you work for YouGov?
I noted there was a rather bizarre discussion on the last thread debating whether Scottish aristocrats sound Scottish or not. I wonder how many of those discussing it actually know any Scottish aristocrats? Sam Cameron is not Scottish and as the daughter of a baronet she is not technically an aristocrat either, even if she is an 8 x great granddaughter of Charles II (in common with several thousand others). To my ears she speaks with a pleasant English accent.
Do we get a TNS or any other non-YouGov poll tonight? I know we are spared the almost nightly YouGov.
Sean, off the top of my head, how about this for starters:
William Tedd is on his way out of Cairo international airport on a routine business trip. Behind him, in the departures hall, a man is gunned down. A man who should never have been there. A man just arrived from Iraq. It would have been a close escape for Tedd but for one thing - as he opened his brief case, his chest tightens and his heart races as he sees not his contract negotiation briefing notes but other papers, papers in what looks like Arabic.
Someone was prepared to kill to stop those papers getting to their destination and they still are - a someone who has Tedd’s own document case. Someone else is equally keen to get hold of what should have been delivered. And the Americans are even more keen to get hold of what should never have left Iraq because they should never have had it in the first place.
337 “This french guy is a plank, the French Polly Toynbee, why should anyone listen to him?”
I couldnt listen to him. It was like scratching a lamp post.
The Tories are such a mess it’s noit surprising they are turning in desperation to Samantha. Did anyone see that extraordinary clip where Osborne laughted at Sarkosi’s height? And now Cameron’s wife is being compared to a wag by Boris’s impressive sister
338 - in fairness, I’ve been reading this site for ages and don’t think I’ve EVER seen one of the many, many Tories put forward a single positive reason to vote for their party!
Why’s Boris Johnson on Newsnight wearing a frumpy dress, and a funny wig? Derek Draper’s looking unwell.
340. Remember Agincourt !!
Just checked my blackberry google maps and it’s 3.3 miles to dirty dick’s from work, should be there by 6.45 (finishing work at 6), I WILL walk (if it’s not raining)
342 Scottish aristocrats have 2 accents. They have a posh British accent (same as posh English) and they have a Scottish accent so they do get attacked by Scottish racists.
“263.Am I the only one to be troubled by this BNP ruling”
Political correctness is just marxism in disguise and this ruling is just another step on the road to outlawing any political incorrect opinion or expression of same. Neutrals should mind because “racism” has been turned into the ultimate crime that justifies the state removing civil liberties but the definition of what constitutes racism is in the hands of a pack of totalitarians who are constantly changing and widening the definition for their own ends. Eventually they’ll use it to remove democracy entirely.
On the other hand given how hacked off people are about immigration these sort of attacks on the BNP from the political class all act as recruiting sergeants so it doesn’t really bother me any more.
346
Ash, your reasoning is enough for anyone in doubt.
Incidentally I sincerely hope we do see Miriam Clegg out and about supporting her husband during the election campaign. She appears to be both a very attractive and intelligent lady from what I have seen and read about her. She and Sam Cameron will brighten up the campaign and I just hope that unless any of the 3 wives become involved in deeply political issues, that they are given the respect they deserve.
345 - laughing at a bitter, tiny, shagger of a Frenchman? That’s worth about half a million votes to the Tories right there.
345 - The Tories seem to be trying to rescue their crumbling campaign by going back to the bright, early days. “This is Dave, isn’t he fluffy”. I’m not sure that’s the right idea this close to an election, though.
346.
I’m not a Tory, but here’s a reason: government transparency - every item of expenditure over £25k would be published under the Conservatives. I think that is a genuinely brilliant and transformative idea.
345 Roger, Cameron will be UKPM in months.
Gordon Brown will be out and the books will be open.
As Sarah Brown was hired as his PR manager, I wonder how their relationship will be after he is a nobody. Perhaps it will get stronger when she doesnt feel a subconcious obligation to promote his professional image…
SeanT How about this: A middle-aged gay autistic politician is suddenly kidnapped and held captive as a sex-slave by a ruthless gang of vigorous muscular young men; his only hope of escape is to work out (by touch alone) which the royal ones are. I would be willing to collaborate on the film version.
345 - ‘Did anyone see that extraordinary clip where Osborne laughted at Sarkosi’s height?’
On that footage of him walking next to Dave, Sarko barely came up to Dave’s knees.
“Rod Crosby has the hots for her. She is the only woman and only Tory that I’ve ever seen him say anything positive about.”
I said she reminded me of an ex who is a nutjob…
Quite a different statement.
On the next Chancellor market: Clearly Osborne is by far the most likely, and virtually a dead cert if there is either a Tory majority, or a result where the Tories are a few seats short. In fact, I can’t really see any scenario where Cameron is PM without Osborne being Chancellor, so I don’t think Ken Clarke or Hammond are in the running. Osborne is central to the whole Cameron project. Any stitch-up with other parties predicated on excluding Osborne could only be a dishonest fudge, and the Tories would, I believe, prefer to stay clear of it.
Where things get more interesting (in a betting sense) is if Cameron is not the next PM. There are three possibilities:
1) Gordon Brown remains PM. In that case Darling presumably would have to remain in order to reassure the markets who in that case would be in near-panic. So the next Chancellor market becomes a longer-term guess as to who would succeed him probably after a second election.
2) Darling becomes PM. In that case, I haven’t a clue.
3) Some other Labour figure becomes PM. In such a case, Darling would probably stay as Chancellor, but if Brown is out of the way the markets wouldn’t be quite as terrified, so the options would be wider.
355 - *yawn*
340.
No wonder the French like Browns Labour, the car scrappage scheme meant more French cars being exported to the Uk
344 Ash, you are wandering off the script.
Remember, promote YouGov.
YouGov is good…
YouGov is accurate…
Yay YouGov!
351 - You have to admire the stupidity of a party that includes
The new, 12th, version of the BNP constitution states that members have to agree to two party officials - one male and one female - visiting their home for up to two hours, the court heard.
No wonder that Griffin is under such pressure from the purer cadres.
306: Ash @ 22:42
You ask what has changed since You Gov started to show less favourable Tory numbers. As far as I know nothing.
What changed just before is, seemingly, another matter. There have been several very good posts on this site which explain (Flockers did an excellent post a couple of weeks back) and there is a very good article by Bunnco on PB2. Have you read them? If not I strongly suggest you do as you will find the answers to your question.
From my perspective, I do wonder about a pollster that gets the results of their polls then adjusts them by a subjective value (the calculation of which relies on a method that is opaque).
Now, if you want to believe that You Gov is the best pollster and will be on the money, then I refer you to market on pollsters mentioned up thread and suggest you get some dosh on. This is a betting site after all.
365 - what the heck is that for? To check they haven’t got any blacks hiding under the floorboards?
How does anyone know that the poster called Tim has 18,000 posts. Have you counted them all?
Do you not sleep?
346 - I am a Conservative of many years’ standing and I would argue that a positive reason to vote for my party would be to put the fine talents of David Cameron, William Hague and Michael Gove to the forefront of British politics. Voting Conservative will also bring fresh faces to British politics and will reinvigorate the House of Commons.
Furthermore, it is likely that tighter fiscal policies will be put through which will help to reassure the global financial markets that Britain is a safe place to do business which should help to shore up our currency and prevent any further loss of investor confidence. I am heartened by the savings already suggested including the scrapping of pointless extra layers of quasi government in the ‘regions’.
I’m also sure that businessmen would find more common ground with the experienced former Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke than with the multi-resigned former manager of the 1987 Labour Party election campaign Peter Mandelson.
There! Positive reasons to vote for a positive Conservative future.
Your turn.
Newsnight was excellent today. BBC thought they would do another hatchet job on the Conservatives and the fragrant Samantha.
What we got was a reluctant interview from a very genuine person and whiney moany Frenchies wetting themselves over the Conservatives.
333- 1994? It might as well be 1994 BC! Nobody but some crusty old political science professors and PB posters even know there was a 1994 (AD).
368- “How does anyone know that the poster called Tim has 18,000 posts. Have you counted them all?”
Mike told us.
Of course they had better wet themselves. When Conservatives get in, the books will be open and the cracks in the EU will be exposed. The whole pack of cards will be shown for all to see.
Gordon Brown signed Britain over to Greater France. The French dont like the Conservatives. The French prefer Britain to be run by Gordon Brown.
What better reason to vote Conservative.
So anyway Tim - those reasons to vote Labour you promised……
306. Yougov have radically changed their weighting formula. They are no longer using the one that was accurate. That is what all the controversy is about. The decision to change it radially when the previous one was accurate.
For example in the past, Yougov and ICM broadly gave the same polls results. Since the change in Yougov weightings the Yougov and ICM polls have diverged dramatically. Clearly somebody is wrong. They can’t both be right.
Given that ICM have been accurate for longer and haven’t change their weighting, the rogue must be Yougov rather than ICM. Yougov is quite simply the odd one out.
If it is alread accurate why change it? It is bound to arouse suspicion.
marvellous newsnight, french and Berlesconi endorse Brown!
up yours Delors, I will vote and you will not. If the French don’t like David Cameron, I like him all the more.
It would be nice to hear from the labour supporters a few positive reasons for voting Labour, tim seems to be stumped, or maybe he is too busy lambing…
263 No. I support the BNP’s right to freedom of expression because I support my own right to freedome of expression.
Once the BNP is denied the opportunity to express its views, it’s a short way to prevent any centre-right party from expressing its views.
361 - Your “unexplainable” scenarios justify the £2 at 250/1 I’ve just had on Hilary Benn as next Chancellor.
368 Is Tim a single person?
I always thought Tim was a propaganda portal run from Damian McBride’s office.
Well I never.
366 - yes. I know what methodological changes they have made, and applaud the forensic amateur analysis by some on this site. That’s not my question.
My question is why people have suddenly decided that YouGov’s ability to judge and execute necessary changes in methodology have changed, ever since they started to show the Tories less favourably.
“So, what first attracted you to multimillionaire Paul McCartney?”
As for betting. I’m poor, I’m afraid. Quid at a time man. But I am interested in betting and politics.
375 Up yours Delors indeed!
Vote Conservative. Frenchies hate Conservatives.
Positive reasons to Vote Labour. It is likely, according to most experts around the globe, that sustaining government support for the economy until it is fully recovered will reduce the risk of plunging back into recession.
“345 - laughing at a bitter, tiny, shagger of a Frenchman? That’s worth about half a million votes to the Tories right there”
That is why so many see the world differently from Tories and why ‘Nasty’ is a epithet that should stay around their necks for years
376 - It’s not about expressing views is it.
A party that insists that two of its officers have to come round to your house for two hours before you can be accepted as a member, then puts it into its constitution isn’t legally a political party is it?
381 - Have you spoken to many of these people?
SeanT, two more ideas, just names:
1. Trebitsch-Lincoln
2. Jihad Jane
377 tim - What about Timms or Byrne? I’m thinking about experience in the Treasury and enjoying Darling’s confidence, although TBH I don’t know if either fits that criterion.
SeanT don’t go with that wikipedia stuff about baboons raping schoolgirls in amphitheatres, cos its all bollocks.
I have just ordered the Genesis something or other from Amazon, so I’ll get back to you when I know what Tom Knoxes are like. In the meantime my standard advice to thriller writers in your position is to plagiarise Tim Powers.
What the heck was Rachel Johnson playing at going on Newsnight to slag off Sam Cam giving an Interview. This will now be played up as a Dave /Boris split and crown out the Sam Cam chat on Sunday evening.I am truly fed up to the back teeth with the number of ego’s in my Party who simply will not be Team Players and realise that we must be a disciplined and wholly focussed fighting force with the single aim of defeating this dreadful Govt. BTW where was the in depth discussion on Newsnight on Sarah Brows long running public campaign for her husband ?? I also marvel at the hypocrisy of the Mumsnet Chief who critices SamCam being interviewed yet is having Sarah Brown on Mumsnet.
Whilst we are talking of the French, whatever happened to Segolene Royal? Is she still around?
374 I actually think YouGov’s data is still accurate - but the new weighting is wrong.
If Labour supporters are no longer bothered to log in and vote - I’m guessing they wont vote come the GE.
The best thing the Tories could do to win back the UKIP waverers is getting the French to insult them.
The Sun should dig up the old “Up yours Delors” stuff.
Ash, Roger, Tim. Friday late night leftie tag team.
Is Exeter a marginal?
This evening was phoned by Aneco Communications “on behalf of a major political party” who asked me the following questions:
1. If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would I vote for?
2. On a scale of 0 (lowest) - 5 (highest) how likely would I be to vote Labour?
3. Would I prefer a Tory or Labour government?
The major political party the phone call was on behalf of was Labour.
If Exeter is a marginal then Cameron is headed to a majority of 80 - 120 seats.
367. That bit is, apparently, so the BNP can stop Guardian journos posing as chavs from infiltrating the party. Fair enough, I reckon.
THANKYOU for all the excellent thriller suggestions. I like the Iraqi opening from David H, and the Seleucid atmos from Morris D and John Loony’s idea is hilarious.
However (please don’t think I’m being ungrateful!) what I am struggling with is the concept. My thrillers are high concept.
e.g.
A German archaeologist is uncovering an ancient temple, which might be…. the Garden of Eden: The Genesis Secret.
What if the Nazis were… right? And there are real and dangerous differences between human races? The Marks of Cain
The Chinese are cutting open brains and…. (I can’t tell you this bit): the Severed Men.
First I need a High Concept, a startling idea or premise which… hopefully… involves exotic locations and some ancient history and menacing violence and the whole plot ends up saying something about the world in a luridly entertaining way.
That’s a Tom Knox Book. That’s the brand. High Concept. And the concept generally comes first.
I realise I am asking a lot. But I am also offering a fat dinner (at worst) and a slice of the profits (at best)…
#260 Pesto has this to say on Lehman:
…But some would say it is unedifying that the deals that buried the $50bn of assets were not permissible on Wall Street but could be done in London.
Well quite.
Not the only dodgy dealing going on in the UK either we also have AIG traders racking up £310 billion in toxic debts out of an office in Mayfair:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4981316/Mayfair-office-was-ground-zero-of-credit-crunch.html
361 “In fact, I can’t really see any scenario where Cameron is PM without Osborne being Chancellor”
The only scenario i can see as vaguely plausible is a small win for el Torees with Clarke agreeing to take the hit for unpopular cuts then stepping down.
365 “You have to admire the stupidity of a party that includes”
Material conditions give +60 bonus IQ points.
367 “To check they haven’t got any blacks hiding under the floorboards?”
Bookshelves full of 4″ thick Gramsci books etc.
“The best thing the Tories could do to win back the UKIP waverers is getting the French to insult them.
The Sun should dig up the old “Up yours Delors” stuff.”
David Roe, are you out there? This is great. The French dont like the Conservatives. The French love Gordon-Lisbon-Brown.
Front page please!
386 - More to the point neither of them is quoted on any market I’ve ever seen.
I quite like Timms, safe pair of hands, but neither he or Byrne will be next Chancellor, even after nuclear war.
390 - the demographics of people who will sign up to online panels and those will vote in general elections throw up many challenges for pollsters. YouGov have a record of accurately addressing those challenges in the UK.
Regardless of whether or not it will hinder or help the Tories (if the latter the world’s gone mad) it says a lot about Osborne that he made such a stupid joke. That’s a joke that anyone can make other than a senior politician.
382 - I had Tories on here defending Team Cameron and Coulson against nastiness the other day. Hilarious. New, nice Tories? Yeah right!
I’m sure politicians and those who aspire to be politicians are going to rue Twitter as much as Facebook in years to come:
The Libdem PPC for Gravesham:
Watched a lot of p*rn films yesterday at the berlin p*rn festival. 3pm to 10.30pm, without any real breaks, phew!
There’s a lot of d*ke p*rn out there now. Good to see they are getting their scene together..
d*ke contingent also liked my strut the sl*t scene too…I wasn’t sure they would as my stuff looks really p*rny compared to what’s here…
I saw some dark films yesterday,once a girl takes her arm (!) Out of a guys bum whilst it is holding large lube bottle- most memorable..
She also stuffed his balls up his own bum! When out,they reminded me of ‘who’s the daddy’ scene with pool balls in a sock in the film Scum.
In same film she pulls out a large white sheet. It reminded me of when I worked for poultry sellers and had to fill in complaints book.
.And people would send in stuff they found in their frozen chickens. On more than one occasion they sent in blue plastic factory aprons!
…….
Just managed to get hold of paula p*rn who directed the squirting scene.I had lost her contact details except postal address. It worked!
…….
Going home from Newcastle tomorrow empty handed. Boo hoo…
A bit upset today as my dreams of being a Lib Dem candidate at next election have all gone. I am not sure any local party will…
Vote for someone who has worked in adult industry. Even the supposed liberals!
It has made me all the more determined for next time though. F*ckers. I have more fighting skills than they give me credit for!
………
My dogs are farting terribly of late.
http://twitter.com/annaarrowsmith
394 - If high concept is your thing what about the idea that the conversion of Constantine was some form of Judaeo-Roman plot to bury the early Christian religion for some reason.
397 tim - You’re probably right.
I’ve been pursuing a different route, picking the odd stray Next PM at very long odds, on the basis that if Labour do manage to block Cameron, that will suddenly become a live market again.
Yes Exter is a marginal. It needs an 8.45% swing and there needs to be a swing of around 7.5% to 8% in the marginals to get a Conservative majority. It’s exactly the sort of seat we are targeting.
On Betfair Labour is 1.88 in Exeter and Cnservatrive 1.93, so Labour might just hold it by a few hudnred votes on a central case.
387. Too late. The Roman monkey-rape stuff is already in the book. However I have put it in the mouth of a sad boozy failed Soviet primatologist so if it is dodgy that’s fine.
In fact it’s in keeping with his character - that he would spout offensive and unreliable facts.
388 “What the heck was Rachel Johnson playing at going on Newsnight to slag off Sam Cam giving an Interview…
…the hypocrisy of the Mumsnet Chief who critices SamCam being interviewed yet is having Sarah Brown on Mumsnet.
Kate Garroway is married to Derek Draper…Baroness Ashton is married to Peter Kelner…
Are these women married to anyone? They seem to be supporters of Gordon Brown.
398 Ash
You may want to look up the difference between GB and UK.
194, SeanT
Re: high concept, do you recall the story from a few years ago (saw a documentary on PBS on it) about the remains of a prehistoric man (who may have been victim of foul play) that were discovered somewhere in the West of England. Scientist did DNA testing of a local school class, just to see if the guy had any present-day descendents still in the neighborhood. Turned out he did: the teacher.
404 SeanT
Modelled on a PB poster perchance?
382. Oh get over yerself. Osborne’s joke about the “Sarkozy box” was rather funny, and obviously impromptu and off-the-cuff. Genuine subversive wit from a politician.
And the wizened little frog from Le Monde getting all uptight about it made it even better. Heh.
Jesus - watching Newsnight Review. Stieg Larssson sold… 22m copies of his last book. F*ck me. Thank god he had a heart attack.
379: Ash @ 23:17
I cannot speak for anyone but me, so I cannot answer you question. I can only give you my view, which I have done in my post above.
Betting does not have to be for large sums and one should only wager amounts one can afford to lose. Now, you seem very certain that You Gov are correct in their methodology, are producing results that reflect the true views of the electorate and will produce the goods on the night. So how about you and I have a modest bet, just a quid if you like.
If You Gov’s final poll is the nearest to the vote shares actually achieved by each and all of the three main parties, you win. If more than one pollster has the same result as You Gov and they both are the nearest, you win. Otherwise you lose.
What do you say, Ash. Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is? If not can I earnestly suggest that a number of posters have done their best to answer your questions and you give it a rest?
400 it reads like a Steven Segal movie. You know the way the bad men do the most evil things. They push and push way over the line.
You know… Steven Segal is back. This time its personal.
No more Mr Nice Guy.
402 - Richard.
Thats why I like these markets to pick up bits on.
I was looking today at the NOM markets, don’t fancy the odds too much but every time I think that I have a look at the surrogate next PM market and pick up a couple of quid on a Darling or a Miliband at ridiculous odds.
I’ve got £30 to win £1250 on D.Miliband as next PM and £12 to win 800 on Darling.
By the way the Libdem PPC for Gravesham has had a Twitter page for sometime:
http://twitter.com/annaarrowsmith
Amongst other things she needs to change her dogs diet by the sound of it.
I do wonder if Nick Clegg might regret this selection…..
I also have a post in moderation re this which if OGH feels should be deleted by all means (even after the watershed). For those who are intrigued check out her October tweets. Oh and also Febraury has some interesting comments about a failed selection….
Febraury = February doh!
Head in hands moment as Beth Derbyshire cites Haiti as evidence of Climate Change on BBC2 Review Show.
394 Concept: Global elite trying to live forever through organ-theft and experimentation etc - maybe trying to breed perfectly healthy slave specimens under a mountain somewhere and tying it in with an ancient civilization that experimented with the same ideas in the past?
280 - the missus view, watching new24 on Sam Cameron - ‘isn’t that the the dress she got from M&S and then got altered for £thousands.’ Also almost physical cringe when the term ‘Dave’ was used.
280 - the missus view, watching new24 on Sam Cameron - ‘isn’t that the the dress she got from M&S and then got altered for £thousands.’ Also almost physical cringe when the term ‘Dave’ was used.
405 - Are you a parody?
Johnson is Boris’ sister, the clue was in the name.
On the other hand you’ll fit in here.
415. Now you know how the rest of us have felt for the last three months hearing about how one chilly winter supposedly ‘disproves’ climate change.
The political editor of the People claims that Vince Cable is ‘the most popular politician in the country’
Surprisingly, this claim is unsourced.
What a crock of Balls.
SeanT @ 394. Maybe Latin America is the next logical stop. Human sacrifice, Incas, Aztecs, Conquistadores, El Dorado. Could have some inexplicable yet chilling connection to American agri-businesses like Dole, the United Fruit Company. Or to the CIA’s shady operations down there during the Cold War.
Although if you make them the villains you might get too much love from Guardian readers.
400 - teasing Sarko about his height isn’t nastiness; it is to be expected by any normal thinking person.
You and the Polly Toynbees and the Yasmin whatevers will cry your crocodile tears. But the fact remains that Sarko is short, chippy, not very good at his job, appears to be shagging around, and wants Britian to toadie up to France. These are things that the majority of people will enjoy mocking.
404. I just don’t think the Romans were that nasty, and the choreography would be unfeasible anyway - never work with children or animals.
Definitely read tim powers, starting with The Anubis Gates or Declare.
And think about a West Country setting. Dartmoor is very like Gobekli Tepe (said with the casual pride of someone who has been to both). Or there’s the true story behind Stonehenge to think about, if it hasn’t been done already.
393. Exeter was Tory - held from 1970 - 1997. Prior to that Labour had only won it once - Gwynneth Dunwoody - in 1966.
415. Oh dear! There was a Labour MP who made a similar remark in response to a twister that smartened up North London a few years back
#381 Q: What do you call a collection of economists?
A: An apology
(courtesy of Sandy Toksvig)
394 - What if… a historical librarian discovers documents that purport to show that Mohammed wrote the entire Koran off his own bat (one weekend?) (why?) and then devised the mechanism of a 23-year-holy-revelation thereafter?
On the other hand, you might consider it a bit early in your career to be getting a fatwa.
383 - ‘A party that insists that two of its officers have to come round to your house for two hours before you can be accepted as a member, then puts it into its constitution isn’t legally a political party is it?’
tim, yes, that’s ridiculous but it’s the BNP so what’s new? But aren’t you troubled by the fact that the courts are now affectively outlawing political parties simply because they have policies that might put certain people off joining that party? I’m troubled.
425. I think it is probably one of those traditional university cities that used to Conservative but demographic change has swung towards Labour. York would be a similar, but more extreme, example.
420. James Kelly.
The believers started it with Katrina, of course.
IIRC Sarko hearts Gordon.
because…
.. he can run rings around him on EU issues
.. he makes Sarko look competent
.. he has proved a useful ally in Sarko’s ideas for fighting off Anglo-Saxon economics
.. Gordon is desperate for friends (Obama isn’t fond, Merkel doesn’t care)
Years ago Paul Gallico published a book in which a char lady becomes an MP, helped by her French friends appearing to diss her - on basis anyone attacked by the French is immediately popular with the English (in truth some of the support for the Iraq war in general public in lead up was because Chirac was against it ).
383 Nobody *has* to join the BNP. Anyone who actually *wants* to join the BNP has no right to complain about their membership qualifications, IMHO.
I wouldn’t want to have two senior BNP members interviewing me, but I wouldn’t be applying for membership in the first place.
Sean T, out of the top of my head, how about a historical novel? The battle of Ain Jalut is poignant.
422. I am looking at Latin America. I think I’ve mentioned on here before the mad Moche culture, sort of extra-depraved Aztecs obsessed with fellat1o and buggery and obscenely prolonged torture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moche
This Spanish stuff ties in with another idea, an archangel’s feather that was supposedly kept at the Escorial until the 19th century. The mad British aristo who built Fonthill describes seeing the angel’s feather, in Spain, in the 1800s.
But then the feather disappeared…
There is a Tom Knox thriller here. Just don’t know what. Yet.
404 - How about a tortured young man leaves Leicester and comes back again?
Apologies to Sue Townsend but I often wondered about writing ‘Lo, The Flathills of my Homeland’
432. You missed out no. 5 -
.. because he’s the only bloody alternative to Cameron and Osborne.
406 Oldnat are you seeing much of a Labour campaign in Ayrshire? My contacts are telling me they dont seem to be very active. Even in Kilmarnock they dont seem to be getting into gear much yet.
A movie coming to a cinema near you…
First the lefties lied… They took money from rich people and coincidentally gave them peerages, contracts, political positions and exclusions in legislation…
They let his grandmother to die of neglect & starvation in an NHS hospital…They gave his underage daughter the pill and she got clamydiah…then they gave his smallest child a sex education that bordered on pornography…
They pumped cash into their pet projects whilst denying helicopters to soldiers at war…they overstretched the soldiers, closing the last military hospital during Wartime, leaving wounded to be abused by civilians of ‘non friendly outlook’…
Then they let in unlimited immigration to rub the Right’s nose in so called diversity… they overcrowded the schools so his children had to travel miles and miles for an education…Then they gave billions to foreign a company so they could buy Cadbury and sack 400 workers…
No more Mr Nice Guy. This time its personal.
422, AndrewG - that’s pretty good concept, methinks. And NOT to worry, plenty of nasty lefties to play & plot with!
BTW, one of C.S. Forester’s best Hornblower novels (dramatized in great Gregory Peck movie) featured El Supremo, a Central American dicator and monster.
Who is the big dame with the deep voice doing the paper review on SKY now?
429:
Oops ‘effectively’ not ‘affectively’.
Plot for Mr Thomas: Scientists in a failed British polytechnic conspire to ‘politically weight’ climate change data in order to obtain a significant percentage of the world’s money to launder through their ‘research labs’ which are actually a front for the Knights Templar (or someone really sinister like the Labour Party/UNITE)
434, ST - sounds like Club Med!
441. A Guardianista journo Julie Bindel
http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/juliebindel
Ugh!
444. “Ugh!”
But are you looking at her or Peter Sutcliffe?
435 - I think thats been done, OK Orton went back in a small flask, but it’s still been done.
429 - The bit that made me uneasy about todays judgement, and it may just be the way it was reported was the link to immigration policy.
Thats an odd linkage, the stuff about which people are allowed to join and the two BNP officials in your living room mark the party down as illegally constituted.The view on immigration does not.
446. Now that would be telling…..
join to choose. I would have thought that particular colllective noun would be more aptly applied to our most favoured group here - psephologists.
“An apology of pollsters”.
It has a lyrical truth to it. “Not Me Gov - You Gov!”
444 Sushi for a healthy diet.
361 Richard - from a betting perspective, were Darling to remain in post, he would not by definition be the “next” Chancellor, which is how the market is defined. With Brown as PM, my guess would be Balls, his previously clearly preferred CoE, but if not him, Ed Miliband.
445 They look as though they’re twins.
82 SeanT
Saw your photograph on the net the other day; the words pot, kettle and black come to mind. You certainly look like a dodgy character, and a not very good looking one at that.
So perhaps Mrs Brown need not be concerned about comments made by someone who looks like you.
452. Ouch!
439. Weirdly, I actually saw that film one wet summer afternoon.
Anyway, it beats my other novel idea, which is a black comedy about a struggling actor who is repeatedly typecast as Hitler.
419 “Johnson is Boris’ sister, the clue was in the name”
I know Labour would like to ban marriage but you do know the difference between wife and sister.
428, Aaron - ST, you could maybe do the Mormon version of this, if I remember you actually did a brief tour of polygamist town in far north Arizona a few years ago?
Safer (just a bit) fahtwa-wise. THOUGH if you see a couple of blond guys in white shirts lean their bicycles against you gate and ring the doorbell post-publication, might be best to pretend your NOT at home!
394. Sean, I’m trying to write my column for tomorrow!
However, were it not too close to other well-known thrillers, I’d have suggested the discovery of proof that the true heir of the Caliph is alive and ready to assume his position. (This would frankly be much better than some descendent of Christ or Stalin, as the caliphate was hereditary and so such a discovery would matter more).
Alternatively, IIRC, some Chinese emperor died after taking a mercury-based drink in search of the elixir of life (certain irony there). Aging is a biological and hence chemical process. What if the death story was a cover and by chance the Chinese had indeed found the elixir? The emperor might not have poisoned himself but been murdered (together with his chemists) as altogether too dangerous, and his secret buried with him - until now. A new archeological dig uncovers either him or one of his retainers and toxicology reveals the truth of the elixir.
455 ‘I know Labour would like to ban marriage but you do know the difference between wife and sister.’
tim claims to be a farmer. Wife and sister could well be one and the same.
455 - As I’m too polite to sink into the gutter with the posters on here who brand a new poster they disagree with a troll, I won’t apply that term to you, but you seem to be suggesting that a member of Boris’ family may have married into the YouGov family.
Can you back that up?
437 Easterross
The only activity that I’ve seen in North Ayshire & Arran is from the SNP - leaflets and street campaigning.
Much the same as 2007 - when the first Labour activity I saw was the appearance of their posters just before election day.
It might be that Labour are working the council schemes in Ardrossan and Stevenston.
Clealy one cabinet post that G. Osborne is NOT seeking is Foreign Secretary.
448 St John, surely the correct usage for a group of pollsters is a discordance?
they never say sorry….
459 you seem to be suggesting that a member of Gordon Brown’s family may have married into the Kraft Cheese family. Can YOU back THAT up?
“I would sack Osborne if I had to, says Cameron”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/i-would-sack-osborne-if-i-had-to-says-cameron-1920704.html
450.Peter, Liam Byrnes is Brown and Balls man in the Treasury. If its not Ed Balls to the Treasury to replace Darling if Labour remain in power, I could see a puppet being put into the top job, Byrnes or Yvette Cooper. First female Chancellor or permanent Labour leader, a long shot? Although her husband will want that job as a precursor to a leadership contest that would see him succeed Brown, I wouldn’t write off Cooper if for some reason Ed Balls doesn’t manage to get either job. I think that Balls is more ruthless than Gordon Brown in the sense that he is not so squeamish about going for a stand fight in a contest, but he will certainly still run a political strategy straight out of the Brownite rule book.
446: ‘the stuff about which people are allowed to join and the two BNP officials in your living room mark the party down as illegally constituted.The view on immigration does not.’
Not according to this:
‘It [The ruling] pointed to clauses in the party’s constitution that pledged to foster the integrity of “the indigenous British” and reverse immigration.
None of that broke the law. But Judge Paul Collins suggested no-one who was not “indigenous British” could sign up to these requirements without compromising their “personal sense of self-worth and dignity as a member of their racial group”.
That is why he argued the BNP would be likely to commit unlawful acts of discrimination under race relations law - and why he ordered the party’s constitution had to change.’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8564742.stm
It’s been ruled that because some people’s ‘personal sense of self-worth and dignity’ would be compromised if they joined the BNP then the BNP has to change its policies or be effectively outlawed. What if, say, an Arab felt he couldn’t join Labour because his ‘personal sense of self-worth and dignity’ would be compromised over their support for Israel. Would Labour have to ditch that policy?
I’m off to bed now.
Good night Tim. Sleep well. Bonne nuit. Get some sleep after you hand over to the next shift. You’ll need your beauty sleep because you may be made redundant after the next election - and as you know, because of the deepest recession ever since the dinosaurs, it is difficult for British people to compete in your job market.
David Roe, please have a look at the Newsnight story and see if there is a story in France’s support for Gordon Lisbon-Brown.
Ref 466 -looks like the Judge is getting involved in very dangerous territory there .
The phrase `Cans of Worms` springs immediately to mind …
452. lol. Sometimes I look like a sort of nervously disturbed amphibian:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/people,2071,bad-sex-author-sean-thomas-releases-gobekli-tepe-novel-book,76763
other times I look like a Satanic archfiend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AddZg0HXRiI
Yes, that really is me with the eyes.
On still other occasions, I look like a moomin on crack.
However, at no point have I ever had an arse as big as Mrs Brown’s.
21 Londoners (not ogh of course) think the whole world revolves around their shitty cess pit of a city, and we should all know the names of their train stations. I would rather burst a boil with mucky fingers then go to London.
A few months ago, it was unavoidable for me to get off at Watford station. Yuk, what a vile place. I couldnt wait to get back on train up northwards.
How very odd to read this. I spent an hour on Tuesday evening wandering around Fitzrovia, before dining in one of the splendid restaurants in that area, before using the superlative public transport system, to weave my weary way home to Putney.
How lucky I am to live in such an absolutely great, 1st class city I thought. There’s just nowhere which comes close, certainly not Watford!
469. ‘Had’ in what sense?
ST, would repeat, Cornwall was created by the Almighty to sell books.
You could take most of the Moche stuff and attribute to megolith people (like the Stonehedge suggestion upthred). Plus throw in an early 18th c. archeologist (cousin to Poldark) who stumbles upon a smugglers/shipwreckers coverup.
466 - Thats the point I was trying to make at 446.
465 - Sensible stuff Christina.
Coopers chances of being Chancellor are similar to Balls’ as are her chances of becoming leader.
SeanT - maybe you could tie an ancient Cornish sect, once prevalent across pre Saxon South West led by a mad bard called Tal-a-Bot to the truth behind the symbol that the Dukes of Westminster put on lamp posts in the Grosvenor Estate parts of London( urban myth has it that its Coco Channel’s trademark put there by Bendor in memory of their affair but that’s denied) - the Grosvenors being a Dorset family (Cursus, Maiden Castel etc).
If Sean is really going to use Cornwall, I’d suggest that King Arthur is a more appropriate starting (or finishing?) point.
He never was found was he?
457. That is NICE. I have been toying with the idea of immortality and death (or death-avoidance) as a theme/concept. That bit of history is tantalising. I shall investigate. Thx!
I have also toyed with the idea of doing a Da Vinci Code on Islam, but I fear my cowardice has got the better of me. Also, Arabs only read about 3 books a year, per country, and everyone else finds Islam too depressing, so commercially the concept doesn’t really rock, quite apart from the fact I might be decapitated.
Gregory Peck’s Hornblower was the best that ever was. The way he did “ahhh-hem” was classic!
By same token, C.S. Forester beats the hell out of Patrick O”Brian every day of the week. And twice on Sundays.
Tim….top reasons to vote Labour….you promised…. get on with it (please).
TvM
476, ST - agree with you, David H’s idea is very good. BUT suggest you consider tranferal to Cornwall, though slightly less tongue-in-cheek than Ted’s suggestion, which is indeed top (tin mine) hole!
Reason I keep ranting about Transtamaria, is that YOU have a lot of the basic research already done, am I right on this?
475.David, that is a good idea. Still lots of mystique surrounding this legend that could be exploited in a modern day thriller. I used to love the Clive Cussler books where he mixed the myths of old ship wrecks with a modern day cracking thriller.
394. Concept: Charles Darwin was a genetically-modified alien who was sent to Earth by a species of extraterrestrial atheists, as part of a pan-galactic imperialist plot to degrade and degenerate the moral fibre of humanity by promoting debauchery, materialism, nihilism, degeneracy and apathy in order to weaken the human race and make the Earth ripe for colonisation and exploitation. The plan unravels when his renegade great-great-great-grandson [Skandar Keynes] saves humankind by inspiring them with hope and optimism due to his superhuman gorgeousness, and reinvigorates them with the new alien religion of hunk-worship.
SSI. I certainly know my Cornwall, from Golitha Falls to Redruth Rugby Club, but I guess I find it just a little TOO familiar and homely to be inspiring.
Outsiders find it endlessly fascinating, with its legends and, er, stuff. But I have the mild contempt of the hometown boy.
I did once try to write a crypto-religious screenplay about a man who actually dies and goes to the afterlife, but he thinks he’s just gone to Cornwall: Cornwall was purgatory, the tin mines were Hell, the Scillies were heaven.
Maybe I will revive that. One day.
And now I must abed. Thanks for all the excellent advice. Goodnight sweet pb princes, goodnight.
IF it’s true that King Arthur is only sleeping (in a B&B on the slope of Mt Bandon?) for the hour of England’s greatest danger, then many PBers MUST be wondering, why on earth isn’t he rising from the earth . . . and campaigning in a Tory-Lab marginal?
462. OK Ted.
A “Denial of Pollsters”.
That works better with the “Not Me Gov - You Gov”, idea.
Or a “Disbeief of Pollsters”.
Concept for a thriller? I’ve long had this idea for the opening of a film. A guy is stuck in a motorway traffic jam on a hot, dull, summer’s afternoon. A large military lorry stops at the side of him. He gazes over. Suddenly a slat on the side of the lorry is pushed open from inside and dozens of pale, starved arms shoot out and are waving in frantic, pleading desperation - like people being taken to a concentration camp. The guy sits up in startled horror, but then the traffic moves and the lorry drives away. Obviously, he’s witnessed that something dark and terrible is going on. Could never think what happened after that.
170/180: this (point 2) is what my Republican friend made of it last time:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/423
I was just about to log off and go to
have a wankbed, but I just discovered a multiple response thingy which I’d written and forgotten about, so here it is:SeanT I suspect you are right, and Rhisiart Tal-e-bot is an absurd Kernowisation of… Richard Talbot.
I like to think Rhisiart Tal-e-bot, in having the stupidest name in British politics, represents another triumph for my homeland.
I was assuming that “Tal-e-bot” might be the Cornish equivalent of the Welsh “Tal-y-[something]” which would mean “End of the something”.
Mebyon Kernow also boast probably the handsomest council leader in British politics, like a younger Richard Gere, or a more brooding Brad Pitt - he’s on the right in this photo.
http://www.mebyonkernow.org/files/ccgroup.JPG
No wonder you manage to get loads of girlfriends if that’s how you assess attractiveness…
————————
Incidentally, I rather liked Matthew Taylor when he first became MP for Truro in 1987. I think he’s the only MP I’ve ever fancied at all.
—————————-
Plaid Cymru started from a very low base, but gradually built up support and seats in local government, and then gradually went up in parliamentary elections from 5% to 10% to 20% to 30% and to win seats over a period of a few geneal elections. I have for a long time fantasised about MK having the same sort of success in the long term, but I have never thought it likely to happen. But it would be fun if MK candidates get 5% to 10% and beat Labour in some seats this time.
280, John Loony - pretty nifty idea.
BUT when it comes to Darwin, always remember growing up as a Catholic, that the Church (in the US anyway) had zero difficulty reconciling the Faith of Our Fathers with the Origin of the Species. The view was, since God was omnipitant and omnipotent (and as contrary as a drunken bumblebee) then anything was possible.
Actually think the real reason RC hierarchy took Darwinism in stride, was because they’d stumbled so badly over Copernacanism. Thus the sufferings of Galileo were the blessings of Scopes. Just too bad for him he was teaching in a public school Dayton, Tennessee instead of a parochial one in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.
487. SSI -”Thus the sufferings of Galileo were the blessings of Scopes. Just too bad for him he was teaching in a public school Dayton, Tennessee instead of a parochial one in Pawtucket, Rhode Island.”
Wasn’t really luck though, was it. The ACLU put him up to it.
Herald - Sarko puffs his chest and bites back
Is it just me, or does anyone else find the pictures of Gordon Brown hugging Sarkozy in what looks like a Scotsmans version of a rugby hold really weird considering he has absolutely no previous form for being that tactile in public with anyone?
488, AG - you are correct.
Would add that the portrayl of Wm Jennings Bryan in the classic play Inherit the Wind (in the movie, great performance by Kirk Douglas) was WAY over the top.
I saw some out-takes from Trevor McDonalds coming interview with Sam Cam, and i too was suitably charmed by her. She is beautiful, there’s no 2 ways about it, and very charming.
However i did find her just a touch bland, but that is definitely just because she is new to this. She will grow into the role for sure and be highly effective as a ‘1st Lady’.
However i have just been on another site and someone thought that some of her references to either her husband or some other aspects of her life were cringeworthy.
There’s nothing wrong with cringeworthy when you are referring to the Tory party. Margaret Thatcher was without doubt the most cringeworthy politician since Ancient Greece, but she had inner steel. In fact i can remember as a young child watching her little speech on the steps of Downing Street in 1979 and nearly vomiting.
Do you remember that ? When she prattled on about ‘where there is despair, lets us bring hope’ twaddle. God it made my teeth itch. She was literally worse than fingernails scratching a blackboard.
But she was in power for 11 years.
British Tories are a very peculiar breed. They are part jingo, part fascist, part kind, part selfish, part stupid, part brilliant, mostly rich, very often detached from reality which contributes to their clear thinking (dont allow themselves to get sullied with gutter nonsense), brilliant long term strategists, celebrate class differences and yet are the most inclusive of British parties, odd, eccentric, cerebral, somewhat effeminate, very rational, enormously brave when needed militarily yet strangely cowardly in a domestic setting, insular yet adventurous.
I could go on all night, but suffice it to say that British Conservatives are the most inwardly conflicted people in the world, yet are capable of astounding feats of bravery, ingeninuity and resilience, and yet all the while wrapped up in the shell of a complete weirdo.
489 ChristinaD
If the English pack were that size, I’d feel confident!
Very good article about Barking - including info from Hodge and Griffin
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/13/nick-griffin-margaret-hodge-barking-dagenham
477 I have read and enjoyed O Brian but agree he is overrated. Very formulaic, cardboard characters. Compare Maturin and Aubrey who are the same characters with the same relationship from book 1-13 inc, with the way the Hornblower/Bush relationship changes between their meeting and Bush’s death.
326/Will: Your statement that “only when Bush drifted dramatically to the left early in his second term did his popularity ratings take a big dive” shows a profound lack of understanding of US politics.
Bush took a drubbing at the mid-term elections in November 2006. There was no shift to the left on his part prior to this. The influential posts in his administration were still largely occupied by neocons. What did happen in the months leading up to the election was a growing unease amongst middle America with the Bush administration. There were two main drivers for this: the unfolding nightmare in Iraq, and his handling of Hurricane Katrina in the year before. Regarding Iraq, numerous US generals were in open revolt against defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his strategy for Iraq.
Rumsfeld was the first major neocon to fall in the aftermath. He was followed by most of the other senior neocons. By the end of 2007, John Bolton (US ambassador to the UN), Paul Wolfowitz (appointed head of the World Bank) and Alberto Gonzales (US Attorney General) were all gone. All of these were both discredited and mired in controversy at their time of departure. The neocon era of dominance had come to an end.
Yes, Bush’s approval rating declined even further after the mid-term elections, but this was amid the collapse of the neocon agenda, and in the context of the damage to his reputation due to his association with them.
489 You could title that McDoom-Sarko picture “silent scream”.
491.jupiter, when Sarah Brown described Brown, she used the word messy and getting up really early as if describing a child. She was in fact doing this because these traits were part of the list of criticisms leveled at Brown that needed to be neutered by being turned into charming eccentricity. Samantha Cameron talked about Cameron being a messy cook, channel flicker with the remote and a guy who sits fiddling with his mobile. She could have been describing my other half, this was much more like a wife describing her husband’s very typical male behavior, it will resonate.
491/497. I didn’t think I’d see my dinner again.
On that note, I am going off to pray to my special Cameron nativity scene before bed. Thank you God for delivering the Camerons to us.
Good night folks. Sweet Cameroon dreams.
492.oldnat, I want to see Scotland win this weekend, they deserve a win.
499. Scotland won the Wales game. The Welsh just happened to score more points.
That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
ChristinaD, so were the REAL debates in 1960 between Jackie Kennedy and Pat Nixon?
Methinks Died-in-the-wool partisan (also Gordophobes and anti-Cameronians) may interpret things the way you say. BUT not the other 80% of the electorate.
PS - sorry that I took liberties with your Granny’s cat in previous thred. Though I did opine the critter was most likely an unreconstructed Conservative!
500.AndrewG,
Just done an AR survey, with slight differences to previous:
-Added a splash page encouraging truthful answers at the beginning
-there was a push question after VI, even though I selected Lib Dems
491/497 And this is NOPT partisan,merly being impish in jpining the conversation;
(a)WHATVER-and I flatly refuse to go ‘deep’.Mrs Thatcher changed society forever-amongst socia-economic gropus B/C1/C2/DE at least ‘no better’-or more likely a lot worse
(b)The interventionism,however hidde,by Blair/Borown ovts 1997-2007 restored decency for many of those I deecribe
(c)David Cameron has NOT had a Clause 4 moment,or got rid of the utter venom that rendreed his party to the dustbin in 1997,2001 and 2005.
In his earlier days,’two-election stragey’ was the buzzphrase for Tories on here-would you stand loyal to Mr.Cameron IF,and its a huge ‘IF?!’-you went from a notional 210 seats to 260-270-odd, in other words ,’one more swing from victory’
One phrase for all;lifes out there,NOT behind a VDU-there are too many on heer who live here-at least I work and socialise-where oh dear,anti-Tories mix!
Sweet dreams all,syanaora!
501 Sea Shanty Irish
IIRC Christina’s own cat was the archetypal Westminster politician. Ran outside, skidded on the ice and ended up in a snowdrift. Never learned from experience, or understood why it was a figure of fun.
Sorry for traducing your cat, Christina!
Nytol.
503 - I’ve also done that one. In fact I’ve noticed that it asks on every survey about political choices BUT only rarely does it do the “warm-up” question. Anyway another 50p towards the keep me in my home fund…
501.SSI, I should point out though, that at least one of my great grandparents was Irish and Catholic. The family hail from Donegal and I have the maiden name to prove it.
505.oldnat, that was Jasper, he is bound to be grumpy and Tory due to his age. But the younger cat is definitely a Libdem.
How does one sign up for the Angus Reid panel?
@509
Lucian Fletcher March 13th, 2010 at 1:51 am
https://www.springboarduk.com/Portal/default.aspx
507, ChristinaD - ah, I just KNEW there was some good in you somewhere!
BTW, it’s just possible we may be 14th cousins 13-times removed, as I have several great-great grandsparents who likewise were Catholics from Ballyboofey, Donegal. And another whose last Hibernian address was Strabane, who might really have been from the other side of the Foyle.
Plus at least one Orangeperson on my father’s side. Talk about internalizing the struggle!
Further note that not all of the elderly are Tory & grumpy. For example, Michael Foot?
511. SSI, I have been told by one or two of your countrymen with a perfectly straight face that everyone becomes conservative when they ‘grow up’.
Only been lurking this evening/morning..
Night all.
510 - Many thanks.
511.SSI, my Irish and Catholic great grandad married a girl from Skye over here in Scotland near Edinburgh. She was Free Church and her family never spoke to her again, she had the Scottish gaelic and he the Irish, my dad and his siblings always talked about them chattering away to each other in the old language.
513.Kristin, good nite. I too have been doing more lurking than posting these days. Will email you after the weekend.
Christina, like that anecdote.
I wonder how close skye gaelic and irish were, before many anglicised words were added, and whether it was as close as the scandinaviam languages are to each other, or slightly further apart, like spanish and portugeuse.
503 Enlight - I tried to register with AR recently, but couldn’t fing the site for doing so - any help would be appreciated.
509,518 Snap!
518. See 510.
519 Registering with a pollster is nothing more than wishful thinking for saddos, I readily admit!
510 Thanks James
511. Proddie/Fenian crossover isnt unusual at all. I have lving Catholic relations and I can count at least 2 people in my street where I grew up (a hard loyalist area) who were apparently born Catholic.
Meanwhile Alexandria VA has yielded a bit of a gem. Ireland vs Wales at 9.30am at local pub. I should be nicely warmed up by noon. Need to be up nice and early for a thorough breakfast…American fry ups just dont match up to an Ulster Fry.
259 Sean T
Evil cabal of Scottish masonic child molesters launch plan to place useful idiot in position of power,
Said numptie rises effortlessly through the ranks of the compromised brotherhood in a northern fastness and emerges as a leader.
The anti-hero steers the world through an unprecedented world downturn ( which started in America) and then wins an election …
518.Peter, I followed the link and joining was really easy. YouGov have not bothered to invite me for any kind of survey for over a year now, and never a political survey. Yet Fitaloon gets a regular mix of political and brand surveys and is well on his way to his second cheque from them. Go figure.
517.Redcliffe, been having a lot of fun doing the ancestry for both sides of the family. A trip to both Skye and Donegal beckon in the future, I love finding out about the social history as well as the family stuff. Apparently my lot at Glendale put up quite a well documented fight over the clearances. We nearly came to a dead end because on my great grandmothers marriage certificate she put up the Scottish rather than the gaelic name for her mother’s maiden name. But a bit of quick thinking soon open that door to us. Seeing what the population was on Skye back then compared to now really puts it all into perspective.
525 Christins - I whispering this very quietly, but perhaps YouGov his opinions more than yours. I seem to receive YG surveys every week or so, but hardly ever political ones.
I’ve just registered with AR.
523 - Can you get spud bread in the supermarkets at least?
525 - What was the population of Skye then? Ooh I just looked it up. Amazing. Skye really does have a lot in common with Ireland.
I hear the Tories are launching a push in Scotland. They wanted to do some blue Skye thinking.
I’ll get my coat.
All these pollsters’ questions about newspaper readership - I wonder if they now have the Telegraph and Mail as Labour supporting titles?
526.Peter, how many Scottish Tory females in the 40(cough)ish category do YouGov find.
527.Amazing population drop, we get lots of blue sky, and rain, hail and snow too.
I thought AR were excessively intrusive in asking for one’s name and postcode, i.e. effectively one’s full address which then doubtless tells them all they need to know. Many, many would-be registerers must baulk at giving this info.
528.Peter, I answered honestly about newspaper readership for AR, going to be interesting to see if I get called. And I nailed my political colours as well.
I have been told by one or two of your countrymen with a perfectly straight face that everyone becomes conservative WHEN they ‘grow up’.
by James Kelly March 13th, 2010 at 2:00 am
That is as maybe. What they evidently should have said was, IF they grow-up.
Some however never do, or have found that they have not ever needed to do so.
Of course this rather presupposes that either you or they, have the slightest real clue as to what becoming conservative means, and by inference what conservatism actually is. Judging by your many past comments, I strongly contend that your have as much true understanding of what conservatism is, as you do socialism. Which is clearly as good as none whatsoever.
If you do indeed attempt the often painful job of finally growing-up, you will indeed find that you have become a conservative whether you like it, or accept that you have or not.
Socialism is simply yet another mind control device to encourage mindlessly pointless self-sacrifice for whatever cause the establishments STATE is currently promoting.
Conservatism is true national liberalism, closely allied to libertarianism. Which is not only more left then it is right, it is all the self-apparent good bits about so called socialism, without all of the incredibly evil/corporate fascist ones forever more obviously promoted by this Labour government.
Not in the main part to be confused with much to do with The Conservative Party, which is far more a force designed to deflect, rather then to reflect mankind’s God given, innate conservatism.
530 I was gob-smacked a couple of years ago when on PB the local Labour agent for Putney was able to suggest six possible home addresses for me there and then, based only on my first name. Probably my inside leg measurement would have clinched it. Real big brother stuff!
527. Hard enough getting proper potato bread in some parts of England, no chance here.
533 BTW where are you Adam, we haven’t seen you on PB for ages? I expect you’ve been having to work overtime and then some in these parts or maybe you’ve just given up.
Nite all.
If you’re reading this message, you’re probably catching up on the old threads before going to the more recent ones.