Labour gets two points closer in the daily poll
March 11th, 2010| YouGov poll (The Sun) | Mar 11 | Mar 10 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 37% | 37% |
| LABOUR | 34% | 32% |
| LIB DEMS | 17% | 17% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 3% | 4% |
Within the MOE - but will it affect the narrative ?
So here it is - tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties will want to see this sort of move supported by other firms.
For YouGov and BPIX, which also uses the YouGov panel, now seem to be reporting much smaller leads than the rest.
So in the past few days ICM had a 9% gap, Harris an 8% one and Opinium a 7% margin. On top of that Populus marginals poll equated to a national lead at about the same level as ICM.
I’ve just got confirmation of the Angus Reid numbers and am finalising my post. Not more than a few minutes.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Surely not
broken tories on the slide.
Oooh.
Thats OK.
Interesting. But Mike, I want to see your ARS now.
*cough*
“47. Oo-er, predictions?
I believe the narrative turned slightly against Labour today - for the first time in yonks. However that won’t show up yet, and until yesterday it was all anti-Tory.
Tory lead down to 3 points?
by SeanT March 11th, 2010 at 6:50 pm”
1
I want to see the results of a real poll.
Smeary Gobble - spins, links and lies
Tory meltdown looms
2. Gabby, Labour will probably be back at 32% again tomorrow.
Well I’m staggered, especially as I have to type my name and email address in every time. Not staggered about the poll though. it’s YouGov innit, so it’ll double up as a random number generator.
Oooh.
**gnashes teeth and wails as demanded on such occasion**
Stop f***ing saying that Gabble you c***
Very good poll for Labour but Tories seem to be fairly firm…
Rule of thumb I apply to Yougov is to add two to lib dems and take off two for labour and that was before they screwed around with the weightings. God knows what we have to do to get something close to an accurate figure from what they say now.
narrative compliant poll number 673.
YouGov will be picking up a bit of the crazy decision to put Cameron on Titchmarsh on the day Brown was making a budget announcement and a speech on the economy.
A candidate regarded as a lightweight goes and plays up to the perception.
Even ITN News billed the contest last night as between a serious politician and “a smiley one who makes pancakes for the kids tea”
Nothing to see. Move along.
new thread
SwingBack’s Laserbeam accuracy strikes again.
Unbelievable.
Have people forgotten that the last 5 (indeed, 13) years actually happened?
Pull your finger out, Dave, for God’s sake, man.
Electoral calculus
Labour only 17 short
CON 270
LAB 309
LIB 67
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Nothing to see here, 50-seat Tory majority guaranteed. Back to bed, Tory leadership…
What we are seeing at the moment, essentially, is the Tories slightly ahead of Labour. It’s a question of whose unpoularity is the stronger.
We may be heading for a Labour majority here.
2 - maths not your not strong point there?
Can I be the first to insult Peter Kellner or am I too late?
New Labour’s Spin Monkeys will be pushing the Beeb and Sky to run this result tonight on all their news programmes.
Kellner’s a socialist!
I really do find some of these polls suspicious - I live in a labour area but I don’t know anyone who is going to vote for them again.
25 - Too late, go for his wife.
21 - ohh Gobble can enter numbers into cells and push a ‘calculate’ button. Must have been going to night classes.
21. Correction = LIB 40 seats
23. As I predicted some time ago.
And I wish it weren’t so.
20. For those who still think a Cameron a lightweight, there are those who see his recent PMQs performance in a different light. The day Cameron changed. http://tinyurl.com/yz8nvzg
17. Of course Tear For Piers was OK wasn’t it?
23 - A labour majority on a lesser vote, this will be fun. I mean *real* revolution stoking fun, they really don’t know what they are going to be in for do they.
It’s hilarious down here in Wonderland :
someone just told me Labour are 3 % behind!
Anyone who has involement in canvassing/ door knocking in marginals knows these YouGov figures are nonsense….
Labour only 2% less popular than 2005 give me a break
Meh. Noise and weighting.
23. “What we are seeing at the moment, essentially, is the Tories slightly ahead of Labour.”
Awesome to be able to deduce that in minutes from a poll showing C 37 Lab 34. No wonder this is Britain’s most read political blog. Respect.
18 almost as naughty as fake polling figures.
25 Roger. The queues around the block already. We can wait till tomorrow now and find out what the last labour supporter in the country they could find thought about all the sub-issues before their decision was weighted to represent 1/3 of the country.
who would you put your money on in a scrap ? Cameron & Osborne or Brown & Balls ?
Despite that earlier Univ of Manchester stuff (which looked even more dodgy that the IPCC research to me!) I still don’t sense either a massive mood to turf out Labour, not a love for the Conservatives.
I’ve little doubt the Conservatives will make a lot of gains but I’m far from convinced they’ve got the momentum from here to win outright. Hung parliament remains favourite, but I still wouldn’t rule out a narrow Labour majority like John Major in 1992.
37. Shy Labourites? And don’t forget, without the Iraq war, Labour would have scored about 39% in 2005…
no way do I believe yougov figures, where are they getting the figures from?
ComRes this Sunday and MORI the following Sunday are the pollsters still with a foot in camp YouGov. A movement from them back to a 7% plus Tory lead and Labour at their 32 and under level would reframe the debate - any closer and YouGov are maybe onto something.
Daily polling is dominating the narrative, but whilst there is some support for a narrowing of the gap, there is almost no support for anything but Tory largest party/majority elsewhere - the latest MORI and COMRES would be borderline Lab largest on UNS but are (thus far) one offs.
YouGov are either inspired, or getting it badly wrong.
These polls are ridiculous and Kellner should be ashamed.
34 - The timing of the lightweight interview was jaw dropping when you know the public think your mans a bit souffle-like and everyone knew there would be a budget announcement on tuesday or wednesday.
43, aye, and without anyone voting for other parties they would have scored 100%.
25 Roger
Can I be the first to insult Peter Kellner or am I too late?
No need to jump to conclusions. We are dispassionate and methodical on this site. You should wait until the datasets are released.
32 - so what can the Tories do to halt the slide? Shift left? Shift right? Carry on as they are and hope for the best? It’s starting to look bad for them.
35 - that’s FPTP for you. It’s the best system according to some parties, isn’t it?
37. “Involement” = that Richard Gere stuff?
42 - Don’t even think about forgetting or excusing Iraq, it’s still there and any decent person will not vote labour until the people who were responsible are gone.
They aren’t so they won’t.
New thread
So Gobble - perhaps you can answer the question that Tim has been avoiding (even though he promised to respond).
Please could you provide a few good positive reasons to vote Labour in the forthcoming jamboree? You don’t have to link to anything. Just a straight forward answer would be nice.
Thanks in advance.
Anyone who’s done any canvassing lately knows that Labour figure is nonsense. They’re not at their 2005 figure or close to it.
50 - FPTP? Not in my universe, the only thing worse would be the artificially inflated majorities of AV.
Simon
50% turnout in that area you’re canvassing. 34% for labour equates to 5 out of 6 people saying they’ll not vote Labour. Doesn’t mean they won’t still win.
35 The Tories formed a government with a lower share of the vote than Labour in 1951. Labour did the same with a lower share of the vote than the Tories in 1974. The legitimacy of these governments was not questioned. It’s perfectly possible in our parliamentary system.
In fact it’s a good argument for a move to PR IMO.
I hear that Yougov found a slight move to Cameron in the horticulturalist vote.
33 looked fake to me and I think Gordo looked more statesmanlike and didn’t rise to Dave throwing his dummy out the pram.
58 - If I was around I wouldn’t have just questioned their legitimacy I would have campaigned against their acceptance. STV would of course solve all of this.
The weak link with Cams team is clearly Gideon Osborne. Even the French now see him as a complete joke.
59 Gardening is Britain’s No1 hobby.
62. I don’t think so. LINK.
The budget is a big known unknown in all this. Darling is in a very interesting position where he can do the decent and patriotic thing of producing a proper austerity budget, and knife Balls in the process. Duty and pleasure don’t often overlap to that extent. And of course there’s not just the budget itself, there is GO’s response. The best bet is that Darling will aim for low key and boring but that may be unachievable.
Plus there’s unknown unknowns. You don’t have to be a committed tin foil hatter to factor in the possibility of various market crashes between now and then.
testing
I was wondering?
Could YouGov’s panel of Labour voters be contaminated by Labour party activists and as a consequence cause YouGov poll significantly out of kelter with other polsters?
Hence, the majority of non-YouGov polsters are showing much bigger leads for the conservatives!
Don’t know answer for this anomalous data disparity between YouGov and everybody else.
the more the public see george and david the more they are put off….SMELL THAT COFFEE
The weird thing about You Gov’ s methodology is if they got a sample with more past Labour supporters then the Tories would probably have a 10% lead.