Big boost for Nick Clegg in the daily poll
March 9th, 2010| YouGov daily poll (The Sun) | Mar 9 | Mar 8 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 36% | 39% |
| LABOUR | 32% | 34% |
| LIB DEMS | 20% | 16% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 3.5% | 4% |
But why have the Tories and Labour gone down?
Inevitably the daily poll is going to throw up some odd quirks and this evening we see big moves by all the main parties.
As far as I can see the reason that the Lib Dems have moved is that Nick Clegg got a lot of coverage yesterday evening for a speech in which he accused Cameron trying to stoke up fears of “economic meltdown” if the Tories do not win the general election. The third party has a long history of getting poll boosts when the media pays them attention.
Apart from that both the Tories and Labour have taken hits and the blue team won’t be very comfortable to be down at just 36% - or just three points up on what Michael Howard achieved in 2005.
Let’s see what YouGov produces tomorrow.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First by gum !!
Er….
First?
YouGov is the Opinium of the people.
Odd. But it’s YouGov.
So, anybody fancy a stab at what the real figures were?
Ha noise if ever there was any.
Really bad score for the tories though, 36% is a long way of 40%
Presumably they foudn even fewer Labour supporters today so their vote went up. It really is a waste of time.
1 - teeth out?
…and the lead down to 4! If that’s not NOM, what is?
Damn!
On topic. Sorry but YouGov really do seem to be throwing up odd results. We’ve actually had nothing of political consequence and all of sudden Labour & Tories are taking a hit and LibDems flying up like no tomorrow.
Hmmm
This just goes to show how dreadful yougov has become. Libs up 4 in just one day and with them not even having any air time. It just doesnt add up. I think we can just ignore you gov from now on, they have become a laughing stock
Yougov - stranger and stranger by the day!
The Tories have gone down because YouGov’s poll weightings are a crock of shit. If an 18 point raw lead becomes a 5 point headline lead then the Tories could be anything from 4-17 points ahead.
My own guess was that the raw data showed a 9pt Tory lead.
The idea the Tories will get just 3 points more than 2005 is a load of shit.
I’m beginning to lose patience with this wretched daily tracker. How the hell have the Limp Dims warranted a four point increase in just 24 hrs? Nonsense.
UKPR
Labour largest party.
Hung Parliament, Labour 31 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
So what has possibly happened in 24 hours to cause these changes? Absolutely nothing. WHich just goes to prove what I’ve said all along, daily polling is a complete waste of time.
10 marcia.
This Yougov tracker daily whatever is a joke.
God, the LibDems breath a sigh of relief.
Tory lead now in the Swingback Zone…
Well that will stop all the hysterical screamings about LibDems being squeezed down to 13% that appeared on here last night .
11 - It is and rather out of line with ICM & Populus…
I doubt one low-profile, if we’re honest, comment from Nick Clegg caused a 4 point movement to him in the polls. Same old YouGov, innit.
7. Easy to say noise and MOE but, like “arithmetical errors” in mps’ expenses claims, they are a bit more unidirectional than one would like.
Will YouGov be doing one of their ‘normal’ polls, not all this messing about with other surveys or whatever it is they’re doing for these dailies, even if just for comparison purposes?
I had a chuckle at this one. It’s not good for a company as (previously) well thought of as YouGov to be generating nothing but a humourous response to every poll with their name on
“it was just a cock-up”
Is “it” the result as published or the supporting data?
These YouGov polls are just nonsense. Honestly, I don’t know why we are paying any attention to them at all. Who really thinks the LidDems are up by 25% in one day?
I’m sorry there is no way that voting intentions move this much on a daily basis.
“I’ve been in touch with Peter Kellner about the discrepancy in the published figures and the detailed data from last night’s poll. It seems like it was just a cock-up.”
Yeah cock up, not conspiracy as per usual eh?
Nice poll, Tories down to height of expenses nadir.
Quite an achievement Dave.
FPT - Chris A.
Ask people if they think child killings have risen since the early 70’s and I bet you they’ll say yes.
Wrong of course.
Our irrational fear of child-killers
Fewer children are dying violent deaths today than at any time since records began. So why do we fear the issue more than ever?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/mar/04/childprotection-bulger
Conservative majority continues to move out on betfair - now 1.72 .
This poll may be the closest we’ve had for a long time to the actual 2005 election shares.
Comparison between the two, this poll / 2005 election / change:
C - 36% / 33% / +3%
Lab - 32% / 36% / -4%
LD - 20% / 23% / -3%
I don’t mean to be argumentative, but is that not what you (Mike) said the last time the Lib Dems had a large boost (that time attributed to the announcement on the debates), only for the ‘bounce’ to fall away the next day.
It’s happened quite often with YouGov, actually. The Lib Dems routinely seem to pick up and then lose two/three points. I suggest it’s a problem YouGov have with their Lib Dem-related methodology, rather than anything else.
Incidentally, I work in Westminster politics and didn’t see that story about Clegg. That said, I didn’t see the news bulletins either, so I don’t know how much airtime it got.
ha this is Rod’s moment, i’m not sure this will be the final result mind
Well according to the Twitterati this is a glorious Labour moment even though they are down 2 points. Got to love ‘em…
27, their own damned fault. I look forward to seeing the pdf tables.
Anyway, with 10 pollsters about hopefully during the campaign we’ll have enough to construct a reasonable picture without the voodoo diarrhoea of YouGov.
As a Lib Dem I have found this daily ritual an exercise in masochism but tonight it is happiness. However I think it was Rudyard Kipling in “If” talked about triumphs and disasters so will look at this as a one off until a clear trend emerges.
Mike from your last comment in the heading, did YouGov “accidentally” publish too low a score for the Tories or too high a score for Labour last night? I presume it didn’t work in the Tories favour of course.
YouGov really needs to get a grip. Their polls during the conference season were nonsense and their daily polls are shaping up to match, regardless of who is going up or down. The first week we had constant numbers, the second week we started having constant numbers and now they are all all over the place. Goodness knows what they will do when the actual election is called. Maybe they will show a UKIP lead with the Greens second and BNP third.
A terrible terrible poll for the Tories. An excellent one for the Lib Dems.
What the hell is going on??
ConHome reporting an 8% Tory lead in tomorrow’s Metro (Harris)
If it induces the Great leader to call a GE, so much the better. Then the phoney war will be over.
6.Quite honestly even though I’m glad to see Lib Dems om 20% I just dont believe the tercker poll tracks much except sample variation.A better test will be to see reaction in trackers to Lib dems spring conference this weekend which should get some decent coverage.With the lib dems having been out of the media for acouple of weeks if the 4% jump is down to one Clegg appearance then by May 6th the Lib dems will b ein the lead!
Con Home reporting an “apparent” poll by Harris for the Metro :
Lab 29% .. Con 37% .. LibDem ??
I seriously doubt Cameron is going to stand up to an election campaign. To have had Ashcroft and Ulster in a week suggests rather more than just being accident prone. he’s being tested and he’s been found wanting. Jeffrey(?) Donaldson did the best demolition job on Cameron I’ve heard. And he was spot on.
A very statistically significant move for the LibDems, while not quite so for Lab and Con, but overall a statistically very different poll.
Something has changed. What?
Hmm. Bit of a surprise there. I must have missed Clegg’s speech and I’d imagine that the vast majority of the rest of the population did as well. Even those who saw it almost certainly saw little they hadn’t seen before so statistical fluctuation seems the most likely explanation for most of the LD’s movement.
That said, YouGov were generally reporting the Lib Dems lower than other pollsters so the +4 only brings them into the same band as most others - has there been a change in weightings?
Perhaps Labour’s anti-Ashcroft campaign is paying dividends. I am concerned that CCHQ is being far too passive, both in front of and behind the cameras. Labour is setting the agenda far too easily. The budget is coming up - now should be the time for the Tories to be determining the terms of reference for the debate on it.
38. Top marks Morris Dancer for spelling that word correctly.
My guess is unweighted Conservative Party IDs up, Labour little change and LD ID’s down.
Roll on the next non Yougov voodoo poll…
39 Madmacs…me too I was expecting 14-15% not 20%…’tis all nonsense anyway
41 - Yes but if you think about it what YouGov is saying is that tens or dozens of seats are changing hands on a daily basis. Believable? Not really.
Harris poll: Con 37%, Lab 29%, Lib Dems 18%, Others 12%
http://twitter.com/politicshomeuk/status/10239849952
Does anyone have any info about this? Is it in the Metro?
41- The Tories have completely lost control of the narrative.
41. It’s the YouGov Daily Tracker, that’s what. Why is this so hard for people to understand? It’s just a terribly flawed poll en masse.
As someone who believes the Libdems will poll around 20% at the GE, I’m pretty happy with that poll, in fact I’m bloody ecstatic.
Should imagine I’m in a minority though, but I get nervous if I’m not.
Since these daily polls started, the lowest levels for each have been
Con 36 : Lab 30 : LD 16 : Others 11 - Total = 93.
Of the 7% who are sliding around, many will be in safe seats and so their views are irrelevant in deciding the election.
That’s a helluva lot of money being spent to secure the votes of 3-4% of voters!
FPT 212 Roger
If you read no other post today read Yokel’s at 107 (FPT).
An insider’s view of the current political developments in NI including the Cameron deal with UUP. A first rate post.
It might help you to see behind the media reportage.
In defence of the polls here we ought to remember MOE please. That more than any seismic shift probably accounts for most of the flux. A 3% MOE one day in one direction to a 3% another day without any actual move can result in a 6% shift.
I would caution as well against this argument which is increasingly appearing on here that ‘the Tories cannot be only **% above 2005′ or ‘Labour cannot be only **% below 2005′. I am not sensing huge political traction at the moment outside of the Westminster village. Given that Cameron is not entirely trusted on the one hand, and that Blair-Iraq have dropped out of the other, I can well believe that there is relatively little change. I certainly do not sense a national mood which I felt in 1979 and again in 1992. And that alone makes me wonder very much if many commentators are missing a trick here.
YouGov has that poisonous feel to it. Even Mike is now perturbed by their wayward polling.
Told you Mike!
If only Clegg can keep the Ashcroft story going for another week or two – the LDs could win the election.
A bad poll for the Tories, quite good for Labour, and very good for the LDs.
Centre left marching to victory.
PR = LIB/LAB rule forEVER!
More importantly (and probably reliably considering Yougov in recent days) Harris for Metro has the Conservatives 8% ahead (37% to 29%).
I’ve just been to see Alice in Wonderland, am I down the hole with the bunny rabbits?
41: Only a bad poll if it is true which is in doubt. Large moves in polls with no obvious reason suggest a rouge poll.
41, YouGov are producing a combination of statistical noise and weighted tosh, day after day.
Oh! if it carries on like this, I’m sure the Sun will find a reason to dump Yougov and switch too….. ARC perhaps.
What are the “correct” YouGov numbers for last night?
[29] - It’s trivially easy to sometimes get a movement of 4 points when you consider that there will sometimes be statistical noise in the same direction as a true underlying movement.
For the sake of argument it is possible that the “true” support for the Lib Dems was 17%, but measured by the previous poll as 16% due to sampling quirks. The “true” support might have moved up 2 points to 19%, but with the sampling error in the other direction, giving a measured score of 20%.
This is most fun if the noise of the sampling error goes in the opposite direction to the underlying true movement of support, which is why one needs more than one poll to conclude anything. Ideally from another polling company.
The relative lack of such polls is what is driving people to distraction at the moment.
Do we know if any other news organisation/polling company is planning a tracker for the campaign period?
Harris poll for tomorrow’s Metro:
CON 37(-2) LAB 29(-1) LD 18(-4)
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6413/harris_poll_con_37_lab_29_lib_dems_18.html
Poll Alert
HARRIS/METRO
CON 37
LAB 29
LIB 18
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/816707-minority-parties-win-big-after-donor-feud
30. Usually they don’t, but that’s not the right way to look at polls anyhow…
re 232 FPT well tim yes they would be. But that’s not the issue is it? Here’s you and BenM bleating on for all your worth about how this wonderful Labour government has cut crime and they don’t believe you. And there’s not much you can do to change that perception, is there?
OT another fantasy poll from YouGov. Are we really believing that almost 10% of the population have changed their mind in how they’re going to vote from one day to the next? Kellner’s random number generator fiddle factor seems to have thrown a wobbly tonight.
here we go:
Con 37 Lab 29 LD 18
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/816706-labour-loses-a-third-of-voters
65
A rouge poll, is that one with lipstick?
53 wibbler. Hhmmm …. only adds up to 96% !!
8pts with Harris is reasonable, basically as you were from a week or so ago.
63 - combined Lab/LD vote at 52% is lower than in 1983 or 1987 when it was 54% and 55%.
the truth is as the recession headlines of last summer fade - and lots of people continue to enjoy low mortgages and low inflation - the risk of going over to the Conservatives is continuing to worry people. Mr Cameron’s judgement - today over Northern Ireland for instance - does worry me a bit.
63. “PR = LIB/LAB rule forEVER!”
Only until the Army take over.
Harris/Metro
C 37 (-2)
L 29 (-1)
LD 18 (-4)
30. “I’m sorry there is no way that voting intentions move this much on a daily basis”. - They can do but not without a significant trigger, which there wasn’t.
45. Lib Dems high or Others very high on those figures.
59. Sorry that should of course read 1979 and 1997 on national mood. 1992 is a very interesting comparison …
Come on guys we’re not actually taking this seriously are we? Look at the changes in one day for no reason what so ever.
80 - those Harris figures are interesting. Others are on fire according to them!
52. Please………
hahahaha yougov = shefki kuqi
Both main parties getting hurt by Cashcroft. Tories take the worse hit in both the popular vote and, more so, in the FPP cockfight. Labour picking up marginals on small majorities. Tory vote stacking up in their rural heartlands. LDs up in the popular vote, but getting smashed yet again in local FPP scraps.
Hung Parliament
Labour largest party by 17 seats. 31 seats short.
LAB 295
CON 267
LIB 55
CON
LIB
67. It’s gotta be coming hasn’t it. The Sun will be sick to the back teeth of this by now.
The idea of dramatic daily moves in the polls, in an election campaign which hasn’t even started and most people barely seem to realise is happening, is laughable. As if anybody apart from us dorks are following every development on TENTERHOOKS!
Why doesnt Harris add up to 100%? It is 4% short.
Harris with changes on February:
CON 37 (-2)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 18 (-4)
OTH 12 (+3)
UKPR: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 20 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Has Harris published any tables for their Metro polls yet? I have not seen the details from the last poll…
Reached the conclusion waste of time watching the polls, there are far too many. The only good thing is the Sun must be gritting its teeth and wondering if its money is well spent.
Forecast Lib Dems at 16% tomorrow.
78 Michelle, do you have a friend called ‘Samara’?
The details of the Populus poll as set out by Andy Cooke are more relevant than this never ending set of entrial from YouGov.
Is their panel really up to this amount of polling, especially if they are using the same panel for the BPIX stuff aswell, which was up to 5,000 people the other day and seemed to out out of line with Populus and ICM and well…..everyone else.
Well the Harris poll should stop anyone getting over-excited by the YouGov.
I fully expect the Lib Dems to poll around 20 points in the general election, though if they can get up to 19/20 on average in opinion polls before the campaign they could get close to their 2005 share. Having said that, we complain when the YouGov poll shows no change so nice to get something new to look at.
74: Yes, rouge by Typo of Paris.
83: But you can bet that it will be reported as fact by some.
David Roe if you are reading the thread, please let your bosses know that YouGov are giving you polls where the Tory lead in the mid teens is being reported as 6 or less. That’s like describing someone of 30 stones as being slightly overweight.
70 - Who is their reporter? ‘If the election were held tomorrow, Welsh, Scots and Irish nationalist parties would increase their seats from eight to 11. Ukip also stands a chance of its first MP, challenging speaker John Bercow in Buckingham.’
at present Plaid 3 SNP 7 SDLP 3 = 13
91, they’d be better off with a weekly poll, maybe increasing the rate during the final week of campaigning.
YouGov have certainly set the media narrative. Pity they have to transform 18 point leads into 5 point leads to do it.
88 Frank
I don’t know - it is extremely weird. 1% discrepancy can be explained away as a rounding error. 4% is a bit high for that!
41 - A terrible terrible poll for the Tories. An excellent one for the Lib Dems.
What the hell is going on??
Camerons personal ratings are falling week in week out and have been for four months.
Wouldn’t it be great to have 10 polls from each company out at the same time on the same day!?!?!?
Whatever the cynics may say all the polls of the last few days - be it Harris or whatever seem to be pointing towards Hung Parliament territory - and it`s a trend which must be causing concern in Conservative Central Office .
I can see why the Tories are going down: there has been an absolutely relentless negative media campaign with me-too broadcasters solidly on the attack for the last ten days.
But why on earth are Labour falling back? They’ve had the easiest of easy rides since bullygate. If their vote is this soft today, what will happen to it when Cameron and co go onto the attack and the media gets bored of bashing the Tories?
re 78 Michelle low inflation? LOW INFLATION?
What low inflation is this then. RPI increase is 3.7% and that is higher than it was in 55 months of the Tory 1992-97 government. What’s more RPI will be up this month on the 23rd and up again next month.
101. From Conservative Home message board:
“Get your head out of the sand Kevin. Christ, that is 3 you gov polls showing that we have less than a 6 point lead. Bit by bit by bit Labour are narrowing the gap and look favourites now to win most seats after all the trouble they have been in. Cameron is a bloody beauty queen but a disaster of a politician.”
99 tim, just for balance, remind us what Gordon Brown’s ratings are please.
Are Gabble and Ave It the opposite sides of the same coin?
GABBLE = ANTI AVE IT
Harris / Metro poll:
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/816706-labour-loses-a-third-of-voters
According to the report, all three parties have lost supporters though it doesn’t say anything about how many they’ve gained.
Come on Nick! Keep the momentum going and at this rate we can save at least 55 of our seats
I preferred the summer of 2008. Ah those were the days.
95 - Well, it is YouGov’s reputation on the line. They weight according to their expertise.
They probably found some more Labour IDs today so the Lib Dems went up
Those Harris figures don’t add up! 37+29+18+12 = 94%.
Explanation please.
101 GrahamH
Yes, the moves on Betfair definitely back up the HP narrative.
I still feel that Others will polarize though, both through likelihood to vote and head overruling heart. The TV debates will help with that.
101. As that increased lead in ICM is testament to.
I wonder if Cameron’s latest error of judgement re Northern Ireland will resonate in the next round of polls? Been getting a bit of a slating for it on the various news bulletins/internet today, and presumably in tomorrow’s papers too.
All adds to the narrative, unfortunately.
100
Oh gawd don’t even think that, can you imagine, blood would be dripping off the keyboards.
102. “what will happen to it when Cameron and co go onto the attack”
When? How late are the Tories planning on leaving it before they start attacking Labour? The Tories should be kicking the sh*t out of Labour 24 hours a day until polling. Christ it’s the worst government in my lifetime so it’s not as thought there’s a shortage of ammo.
“But why have the Tories and Labour gone down?”
Because tracker polls in the UK have been pretty useless every time they have been tried. Movement for no reason, randomly spaced.
Re 100. Likely as not we will get 10 polls on the same day on May 5th.
106 Tabnam. Ask Mark Senior, he’s the coin expert and can spot the fakes !!
Something smells quite dodgy about this Harris poll.
a cock-up. Says it all.
re 101 Harris points to hung parliament territory only if you believe UNS. Andy Cooke would have it with a Tory majority of 34
106 - am I a coin now?! Mark Senior will be excited!!!
[97] - they’d be better off with a weekly poll, maybe increasing the rate during the final week of campaigning.
Someone usefully posted up the weekly averages for a couple of weeks, which showed hardly a jot of difference once the daily fluctuations were averaged out. Any idea how the average so far this week compares?
111 - perhaps they lent some LDs to YouGov?
So, latest non- YouGov/BPIX polls are:
Opinium: 7% Tory lead
ICM: 9%
Harris: 8%
TNS: 8%
Populus: indicated a 10% Tory lead.
The next COMRES and MORI should be interesting. Even if they confirm Yougov: polling seems quite split?
114 Bob, is it safe to assume that you will be campaigning on behalf of Labour in the GE?
119
i posted 123 before i saw yours! (really!)
re 111 Those Harris figures don’t add up! And nor Andy do you!
YouGov is going 7 days a week during the campaign. I think I will have to take my leave of this place then. Everybody is going to be a nervous wreck.
“what will happen to it when Cameron and co go onto the attack”
They’ll cock it up again?
123 - with your pedigree, Ave It, you’re bound to be a Guinea.
117. “tracker polls in the UK have been pretty useless every time they have been tried.”
QFT.
98 The maximum rounding error for a set of 4 figures is 2%
127. I am a fully paid up member of the Hung Parliament Party. I will be casting my vote in a principled but statistically futile attempt to bring that result about.
Cameron out.
Brown out.
On the day that YouGov show a Lib Dem boost of +4%, what do Harris show? Read all about it here:
the biggest losers have been the Liberal Democrats, dropping four points in the past fortnight to just 18 per cent – as the tax avoidance feud over Lords Ashcroft and Paul appears to have damaged the reputation of all mainstream parties.
Come on Mike, we need an Angus Reid poll just to restore sanity!
132 i’m a gold sovereign!!!
131 tim, I see Lord Paul has been caught on the back foot today.
103 - i do think inflation is fairly low historically is it not? I mean 20 years ago mortgages were 12% and inflation hit 10.9%. So mortgages of @4.5% today and inflation around 3% is really very low. People in work with mortgages are doing relatively well at the moment - yes its all relevant, but as Mr portillo said, for many people this banking crisis has merely meant really low mortgages.
129 - it’s a bit more serious if Harris can’t add up compared to me hitting the wrong key I think!
78. i take it that you didn’t see those ver recent headlines about research jobs at Astra Zeneca and GSK being cut.
Are you related to, or are you using the same ISP addresses as Susanna and Anastasia?
101 - wouldn’t take too much notice of the ConHome Message Board if I were you.
This is a bad poll for the Conservatives but it is just one poll. My feeling is that the Tories really do need to take the gloves off. The media today had pretty much a free ride over the UUP and the most scandalous comments fom labour politicians were broadcast with no real fightback until late in the day.This is by no means the first time this has happened.The Tories need to transform their rebuttal unit - at the moment I’m not sure they have one.
103
But that was after some very high years, for instance.
1991 9.0 8.9 8.2 6.4 5.8 5.8 5.5 4.7 4.1 3.7 4.3 4.5
1990 7.7 7.5 8.1 9.4 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.6 10.9 10.9 9.7 9.3
And interest rates were not 0.5% were they?
131 - “”what will happen to it when Cameron and co go onto the attack”
They’ll cock it up again?”
I’ve found some footage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIVrU5bQSzQ
broken sleazy tories on the slide.
22 consecutive polls with the lead in single figures.
A heart-felt ‘thank you’ to Ashcroft and dithering Dave.
137 Ave it. More a nine bob note !!
130 - No everyone will be immune to it because nobody will believe a YouGov daily poll.
So, if we exclude the moonbeam pixie poll from YouGov, an 8-9pt lead seems likeliest, going by other pollsters.
Anyway, I’m off to bed.
Our poll found 69 per cent of Tory supporters were ‘absolutely certain’ or ‘quite certain’ to vote compared with 59 per cent for Labour and 45 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.
So what % will arrive at if you factor this into that Harris poll?
146
We’re still going to win so YAR BOO SUCKS!!!
143. Because unemployment was a price worth paying for low inflation (pretty close to two decades of it). It was worth paying then, it was worth paying in 1997 when Brown made the bank of england independent with one single mission statement, that ‘inflation was a price worth paying’, and it is right now.
142. It is odd that the Tories just aren’t really saying anything day after day after day. I can only assume they are keeping quiet until Brown calls the election, happy to let him dominate the pre election period and hoping to take control of the actual election? But it does seem rather strange.
YouGov = Up, down, flying around, looping the loop and defying the crowd…
139
Inflation of 3.7% means everyone gets poorer as average wage rises are under 1%. #
That is of course for wealth generators.
#
Even I can work that out… Try doing the sums…
142. “The media today had pretty much a free ride over the UUP and the most scandalous comments fom labour politicians were broadcast with no real fightback until late in the day.”
They could send Yokel’s excellent post to every newspaper for a start.
146 - he comes with a long pedigree.
The non-YouGov polls seem to be averaging out at about a 7-9 point lead for the Tories. I guess that, bearing in mind the last Angus Reid figures, the true position is somewhere around 9-11 points.
150 Ave it. But not Watford !!
114 - I think our soldiers being found by a coroner’s court to have been killed unlawfully due to poor training and equipment might get more press.
I totally missed the Nick Clegg coverage yesterday, only got a hint of it from on PB.com. I doubt I am the only one. I just don’t buy the idea that any coverage of the Libdems caused that much movement in the polls when much bigger stories over the last few weeks have not. I just don’t know what to make of these daily YouGov polls, there doesn’t seem to be any pattern or connection with the media coverage, which kind of defeats the purpose doesn’t it?
145: ICM, Harris, TNS, and probably Populus if cooked show a Tory majority. No polls show a Labour one.
156 Tabman. So does the dog food !!
145. “broken sleazy tories”
Evening Gabby.
145 - How many consecutive polls have shows Labour to be behind though?
It must be a fair few.
147 I agree. It depends on how divergent they are but if they continue to be….
Though Mori is taken with a salt cellar too.
103
A reminder as to what interest rates were.
1997 Nov 7.25 % 0.25 %
Aug 7.00 % 0.25 %
Jul 6.75 % 0.25 %
Jun 6.50 % 0.25 %
May 6.25 % 0.25 %
1996 Oct 6.00 % 0.25 %
Jun 5.75 % - 0.25 %
Mar 6.00 % - 0.25 %
Jan 6.25 % - 0.25 %
1995 Dec 6.50 % - 0.25 %
Feb 6.75 % 0.50 %
1994 Dec 6.25 % 0.50 %
Sep 5.75 % 0.50 %
Feb 5.25 % - 0.25 %
1993 Nov 5.50 % - 0.50 %
Jan 6.00 % - 1.00 %
1992 Nov 7.00 % - 1.00 %
Oct 8.00 % - 1.00 %
Sep 9.00 % - 1.00 %
May 10.00 % - 0.50 %
1991 Sep 10.50 % - 0.50 %
Jul 11.00 % - 0.50 %
May 11.50 % - 0.50 %
Apr 12.00 % - 0.50 %
Mar 12.50 % - 0.50 %
Feb 13.00 % - 1.00 %
Trying to pay a mortgage during those years was not an easy task: fancy it?
0.5% we used to dream of 0.5%
145 Gabble, I see Gordon Brown has more blood on his hands today. He’ll be able to keep Blair company in the fiery afterlife.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8558359.stm
Any reports from people on the ground about how things are going? The journalists seem to have forgotten about the ground war and just seem to write about each other’s blogs
142. Do you not fear that there’s just not enough of a movement *towards* the Tories though? It’s as if a lot of swing voters have taken another look at them and haven’t been that impressed. It’s hard to say at the moment whether it’s terminal, but with eight weeks or so until the election they are looking at a 38% share in the popular vote but getting biffed up in the FPP system, as Labour keeps enough marginal voters on board to scrape a lead on seats in a Hung Parliament.
142 The Tories don’t want an April 8 election - expect the gloves to come off once we get past this Thursday and the slight outside chance of that happening has receded. Not sure what the panic is myself - Harris reports an 8% lead, pretty good considering the negative stuff that’s been around for a week now.
159 - It’s because polls are more random than the pollsters (and punters) want to admit. Putting them day after day just exposes that fact.
You ask different people the same question and no matter what voodoo you try to add to the statistics they will give you a different answer.
People can make quite a bit from the headless chicken over reactors though, them imagining that a poll actually means something significant on its own.
159. So did I Christina. The only heads up I got of Cleggs speech was on here. I know PB is influential, but enough to boost the Lib-Dems 4% in a few hours? I don’t think so.
157 watford havent won in ages!
165:
‘1991 Sep 10.50 % - 0.50 %
Jul 11.00 % - 0.50 %
May 11.50 % - 0.50 %
Apr 12.00 % - 0.50 %
Mar 12.50 % - 0.50 %
Feb 13.00 % - 1.00 %’
Proper interest rates! Bring them back!! Make those who have borrowed too much suffer!!! That will cut inflation!!!
162. GIN
Not you - the other ones!
@148 - Morris Dancer
Excluding all the YouGovs from current UKPR average gives Con 38, Lab 31 LD 18. 7% lead.
165. Of course, between the years 1987 and 1997 the average house prices increased by about 30%, between 1997 and 2007 the average house price increase was 200%.
What does that mean? Well, a house that cost £30,000 in 1987 cost about £40,000 in 1997, however, by 2007 that house now cast £120,000.
What would you prefer, a mortgage on £30,000 with 7% interest rate, or a mortgage of £120,000 with a 2% interest rate?
Whatever you think about the individual polls in the YouGov tracker polls, the trend is rather clear. There is no great interest in Labour, a reducing Tory lead and the LibDems are also rans. If you manipulate the figures you can get whatever response you want. Basically it looks like a 38:32:18 figure would be about right for now. The Tories need to do some serious hard hitting if they want to press on to a working majority. It is quite likely that those habitual Labour voters who were saying they wouldn’t vote or would vote BNP a year ago are suddenly faced with a choice - back the party they normally support or have a Tory Government. As polling day gets closer this will strengthen Labour support. At the same time the possibility of a hung parliament will strengthen Tory support in those who are desperate to get this Government out. Either way, the Lib Dems will be squeezed in all Tory/Labour seats.
The modal average of the polls seems to indicate YouGov is the outlier, but this doesn’t mean it is wrong. The others might be missing something. It is impossible to take anything other than a flavour from these polls - if you want to bash the Tories they are right, if you want to support them they are wrong. Actually they are just a statistical snapshot in time which may or may not be accurate.
165. That is a list that damns them.
You’ve just shown why Labour are responsible for creating a mega bubble which burst and left us in a record breaking pile of toxic doo-doo - because Labour took house prices of out of inflation calculations and interest rates didn’t rise when they should have.
Seth. That’s one way of looking at it. Another suggested by most Ulster politicians other than the Ulster Unionists is that if you hitch your wagon to one or other of the sectarian horses in a rather seedy attempt to gain extra votes then don’t be surprised if you get covered in excrement.
re 144 there you go again inflation is not “about 3%”, it’s 3.7% and rising rapidly.
Just another f*cking rubbish week from the Tories, getting whipped day in day out by Labour.
They have managed to let the day we learn the country has gone further into trade deficit, in the most GHASTLY and harrowing fashion, be dominated by some trivial Tory error over Northern Ireland.
The Tories have no idea how to run a campaign. They have no idea how to conceive or present policies. They are just a pile of sh1t. My daughter’s second best potty would be doing better than Cameron and Osborne against the lying scum of Labour.
GET A SENSIBLE TAX AND SPEND POLICY, A SENSIBLE IMMIGRATION POLICY, A SENSIBLE EUROPE POLICY, AND A SENSIBLE IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN POLICY, AND THEN JUST SHUT THE F UP ABOUT EVERYTHING ELSE.
I think its more likely 38/30/20. Which would make the campaign very interesting ….
181 I think we took him in a pincer movement.
179.
183 - And how many Northern Ireland politicians have you spoken to to reach this conclusion?
Did they really suggest no-one should talk to them or they would get ‘covered in excrement’?
I find that had to believe.
186 Tabbers. Very close but no seegar !!
It’s 38/32/20/10.
Any idea of the Harris sample size or field dates?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4GhMYxE2Lc&feature=related
I’ve found the explanation for the poll movement!!!
Oh God now we’re in trouble. SeanT is off one another of his hissy fits. Well that’s enough for me. I’m off to bed…
Toodle Pip!
180 That was my guess for the numbers! One percent higher than the Labour average you have here. YouGov appear to be outliers but careful if betting on this because they might be the only ones who are right.
Anything from a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party to a substantial Tory majority is still possible. That’s why this election is so interesting. I hope turnout reflects that.
The endless focus on polling results every day is acting as a screen. Nothing else of significance gets talked about or thought about. This is no doubt deliberate, and they are stretching every limb to keep undesirable information out of the news schedules.
I stumbled on some news which could change the political balance in many parts of the world. The Fed is making moves which signal an interest rate rise is in the pipeline. This could hit markets hard, and undo the optimistic social mood engendered by the rise in prices in the last year.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/03/us-interest-rate-rise-in-pipeline-tin.html
183: A political party that wants to run the country should be in contact with like minded people in every part of the country (just as Labour do in NI).
It’s odd now how in Guardian/BBC world the DUP and Bush are now right and the UUP and the Tories aren’t.
185.
:-)
Hung parliament let’s have you.
Brown out.
Cameron out.
Ozzy out.
142: ‘The media today had pretty much a free ride over the UUP and the most scandalous comments fom labour politicians were broadcast with no real fightback until late in the day.’
In all fairness to the Tories, I imagine the Labour onslaught took them by surprise. Would anyone have guessed that Labour planned to accuse Dave of trying to ‘derail the peace process’? Even I, who knew Labour would be dirtier than ever, raised an eyebrow there. Extraordinary!
As Mark Senior observes, so much for the debate about the LibDem plunge in the polls. We could really do with a PolticsHome marginals poll now - I suspect the picture is varying significantly by constituency.
I was chatting about the polls to three other marginal seat MPs this evening. What we’ve all felt is a surge in Labour morale over the last month. It’s not exactly a surge of enthusiasm, rather a slightly incredulous, “We can actually win this thing if we get our finger out.” One had held a £30/head fundraiser in a restaurant with 100 seats - he got 130 requests for tickets and had to turn 30 down. It’s generating a ‘this is fun’ esprit de corps which has been missing for a long time.
183. Were you saying that when Labour cut a deal with the DUP over the 42 days vote?
132: “Bob, is it safe to assume that you will be campaigning on behalf of Labour in the GE?”
I can presently summon up more enthusiasm for a “Tories for Gordon” campaign than supporting the Shambolic Cabinet, sorry, Shadow Cabinet.
But then I read a couple of days of leftie wailing on here, and I feel drawn back to the fold.
SeanT has is absolutely right at 185 with his simple blueprint for victory - it’s not rocket science is it?
FPT Row over crime stats etc. Traditional reposting of
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/14000-knife-victims-a-year-860857.html
“Knife violence in Britain is far worse than official statistics suggest”
Personally think there’s more likely to be mileage in looking at indirect data they hadn’t thought of fiddling like
–increases in the number of rape kits bought over the last ten years
–taking what a Vichy cop says about crime in their patch and comparing it with criminal injury pay outs
etc
174 - I am just not sure. Until tonights poll it seemed to me that the Tory vote was firming up again and that in the main the closing of the gap was down to the return to Labour of many of the voters who switched to Lib Dems because of Iraq. Tonights poll with the Tories down on 36% may be a rogue - but then again it may not be - who really knows.In my view this election will be decided on the economy, how great the desire for change is and whether David Cameron can reassure voters on the former.
171 Look you idiot we are only at 0.5% because the economy is wrecked and it is at maximum monetary stimulus. Coldy as well as being an authoritarian wally, you really are clueless about economics.
198 - good news in terms of hoping for a higher turnout.
183 - Roger.
Here’s the latest Dave footage if you’ve been out all day.
He looks a little stressed to me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rknh6kkrJ80&feature=player_embedded
Getting clearer by the day that the Tories aren’t going to win this election. Every week thatpasses some new self inflicted wound hobbles the creaking Tory caravan. Today it was the bizarre uup situation. Voters aren’t going to trust this bunch of amateur 6th form common room debaters with no lifeexperience with the reigns of power.
And quite right too.
190 and that will be enough with the bigger swing in the marginals!!!
198 ‘“We can actually win this thing if we get our finger out.”’
LOL thats about as likely as peterborough winning their next away game!!!
OOOOOOOER!!!
183. It’s extraordinary. N Ireland politics have been dominated by venomous and often violent enmities for centuries. The historic hatred between the UUP and the DUP is scarcely less than that between the DUP and Sinn Fein. But Cameron jumps in with both feet, making enemies and creating suspicions on all sides. And for what? How many Westminster seats will the UUP win at the general election? Quite possibly none at all.
Madness.
Anthony reakons Harris’s share for Others must be 16%;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
He also points out that Harris, Angus and Opinium all have Others at 16-17%, way above the traditional pollsters. So what are these new kinds on the block picking up that the established pollsters aren’t?
If these new pollsters are correct and these shares for the Others are sustained to polling day then I think two things;
1. It will make polling for the election pretty redundant as we simply have no way of knowing how such high shares for Others would play out from seat to seat and how that would impact on the main parties.
2. At such a high level we would surely be looking at out first BNP/UKIP/Green MP’s which would take this election into the history books.
175- I wouldn’t allow myself to become too excited over the Harris poll, though. Metro is about the most worthless excuse for a newspaper on the planet. Anyone who would do business with them is duly tainted.
new thread
208 - A historic hatred when the DUP has existed only since the 1970s?
For Irish politics, that’s about a week ago.
163 Roger
I am not saying that Yokel’s post is unbiased. Yokel has a clear and consistent unionist perspective. Yet for all the bias, Yokel’s argument is intelligent, well-reasoned and deeply rooted in local political knowledge.
Dismissing Cameron’s link with the UUP as a “a rather seedy attempt to gain extra votes” is shallow, partisan analysis.
Yokel does not predict that the Con-UUP electoral pact will succeed, but he does explain its multiple and complex objectives and sound political motivation.
More documentary, less propaganda, Roger!
It seems that the Tories are so frightened of scaring the horses that they have allowed their lead to drip away whilst looking the other way, and suddenly they have a fight they weren’t ready for.
The alternative is that the Tories have been having problems in keeping the right wing on side since David Davis left the Cabinet. Maybe time to bring him back into the fight? Put him on QT a few times, make him more public. Obviously can’t reshuffle the ShadCab right now, but nothing to stop them using him in the public. It’ll firm up the right wing without scaring away the centrists.
Reality check on polling for mad gabble and buddies:
Given the Golden rule that states that the worst poll for labour is the most accurate, weirdly enough ICM is the most accurate and that means 9% lead.
Given the second golden rule that states that labour will be overstated even in the worst poll for them 9% becomes 11%.
Given the third golden rule that the tories are understated a bit even in the best poll for them, lead = 12%
So Yougov says 4 in reality 12.
Cameron deserves credit for strengthening the tories’ ties with their political allies in NI.
I think most people will be impressed to see him at the centre of events with an ex-president calling on him for assistance. He made the right call even if he couldn’t persuade the UUP.
189. I don’t think you get it there David, we aren’t allowed to have a political system where parties have a right to an independent opinion.
No rather the Ulster Unionists, who lest we forget are their own party, must do what what they are old by everyone else outside of the country.
That kind of approach is guaranteed the same answer every time from this of the water.
Two fingers.
re 171/181 not me - very well put. The ease of servicing those mortgages would be
1997 house price £40k, monthly payment at 10% would be £272.61 - 28% of average monthly earnings [£221pw]
2007 house price £120k, monthly payment at 3% would be £569.05 - 33% of average earnings [£398pw]
So people in 2007 are paying a greater proportion of their salary in mortgage interest despite the lower interest rate. Does that answer your question coldstone? Good job the likes of you and me got on the mortgage ladder a few years ago isn’t it?
There can be no doubt whatsoever that if it would save Browns bacon to link up with the SDLP then he would not hesitate so to do.They’re pretty much joined at the hip now for goodness sake. Didn’t Brown do some truly shoddy deal with the DUP to save the 42 days measure??
Fantastic hedge fund guy on Newsnight, telling it like it is
By publishing daily polls, You Gov are exposing the fluctuations that must happen in all polls (due to changes in public opinion and due to statistical blips). So don’t be so critical. It seems there are too many Tories on this site that just want to shoot the messenger.
I think Mike’s analysis is right - the Lib Dems generally benefit when they get more exposure.
re 206 ooh Ben M has your shift started now. What about the debate on crime figures then. Any comment?
216 - spot on Yokel. Its like Brown being canned for the Scots Labour policy on free personal care and rubbished because he couldn’t persuade them to change their minds. Listening to the reporting today you would neve have thought that this was a devolved matter. Never did I think I would live to see the day when Donaldson was treated by the BBC as the Apostle of Peace in Northern Ireland when he more than anybody as a member of the UUP tried to destroy the peace process and to undermine the efforts of that good man David Trimble.
Dave Cameron really should learn the difference between a tv camera and a mirror. Is it any wonder the Cons lead is declining.
I love this, angry Tories losing money because the polls are not in their favour! Anyone who disagress give me a price on the Tories giving 40% or above in GB…….I will take good bets, just put your money where your mouth is…
Re the pound collapsing in Oz, all time records getting shattered again today as Britain not saving it overnight Oz time, and free money still available if pounds sold over next few weeks and repurchased. Money for jam.
Down to 1.63 Oz to the pound, and spiralling headlong towards 1.50, where the market feeling is it should stabilise. It was 3 dollars to the pound 9 years ago.
If you base your economic situation against the United States that is only part of the story;, the Oz dollar for example has gained 45% against the US dollar since last year.
Expect the Bank of England to start its attempted daily rescue around 10am British time, a few hours still to go. With the export figures down the toilet and no industry to speak about to turn it around then little hope.
There is no current fiscal and/or employment solution to turn the economy around to the level necessary, following either Labour or Tory policy.
If the City does not generate tax dollars what will?
The new EMF club,the iMF without the stigma, will no doubt be helping Greece out, and they are better off.
If Greeks worked 40 hours a week and paid the tax they should, then they would actually be doing OK.
Suggest all of you should study some basic statistics and probability. Mere random variation explain day to day moves. This exposes You Gove to ignorant ridicule. Polls are samples. they have a margin of error. Thoi will produce marked daily variations. No point getting excited about one poll or even two or three or four.
You Gov’s weakness is its lamentable weighting policy, whihc markedly overstates Labour support, not the fact thta it is subject to the lasw of probability.