Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?
March 7th, 2010
CON 36% (33.2)
LAB 34% (36.2)
LD 18% (22.7)
Comparisons are with the 2005 result
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5%
Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points
There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight - this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It’s the first from them this year so I’m following recent PB practice where there’s not been a similar poll for a couple of months and showing comparisons with the 2005 result.
PB regulars will know that whatever numbers BPIX produce the firms lack of transparency generally sets me off on a rant.
Go check out their website where, yet again you’ll find that the site is “under construction” - a state that it has been in for several years. It does not follow the publication code of the British Polling Council and I have never seen a dataset from its polling.
We do know that YouGov carries out the actual fieldwork which I assume is from the firm’s polling panel.
What’s critical here is knowing what weightings are being applied and whether it is following in the broad YouGov approach. This data needs to be published today.
Having said that BPIX did very well at the 2005 general election but without transparency it’s hard to make proper assessments.
According to the Mail on Sunday report BPIX did find a marginals affect - the lead was 7% in 92 marginal seats looked at.
So we have a massive difference opening up between the YouGov family polls and others. The former are suggesting that Labour could possibly be only just short of a majority while the latter are painting another picture.
Tomorrow night things might become a bit clearer with a Populus poll in the Times. Heaven knows what political punters should do. I took the profits on all my open spread positions last week and I think that’s probably the safest approach.
Today on PB It’s the second birthday of my grand-daughter, Esther, and I’m tied up with a family gathering. There are some great guest-slots lined up but I will not be looking at the site until this evening.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
SSI re crabcakes, see previous thread comment
test
@1:
Best FIRST ever.
Mmm, crabcakes.
Ashcroft is the gift that just keeps giving.
Happy birthday Esther
On the polls: at least one of the polls this morning is a massive rogue. Which one?
I think we need to differentiate between Yougov (which, for all the recent hoo-haa about methodological changes, are open about them and members of the BPC) and BPIX, who don’t release any of their weighting or sampling information.
I still regard ICM as the gold standard but we need more polls from more pollsters before we can begin to form firm judgments.
@4:
Speaking as an activist in a three way marginal battleground seat, I can confirm this is quite correct.
@6:
You have to give OGH credit for pretending it’s an open question, but he knows that we know that he thinks that we all think that the Yougov dailies are totally broken. A joke.
7 Martin
Have you just got up? Here in Florida I’m just off to bed.
Good night, God Bless. Incidentally tomorrow I must let you all know about Father Pat’s sermon at 6pm Mass. Amazing!
Malcolm at 9. Another Statesider! There’s a small number of us here.
8 Martin Coxall
I for one don’t necessarily believe that at all.
I thought Anthony Wells’ explanation pretty convincing, together with the fact that they compared headline numbers using both old and new methodologies and found little difference.
I still prefer ICM when it comes to gut instinct, but that is simply because they have had the fewest methodological changes and the longest record of near-success.
That said, the media will all obviously run with BPIX, as it is in their interests to have a close rose. This is a massive shame. They have zero transparency and don’t have much credibility until and unless they start releasing more data.
SSI Here’s a review for Johnny’s Half Shell:
“Inspired by New Orleans’ down-home, spicy cooking, this restaurant features fantastic seafood dishes innovatively fashioned by chef Ann Cashion. Pristine shellfish from nearby waters are specialties, as evidenced by Chesapeake seafood stew, brimming with seafood, spices, and savory broth. Fresh crab is also tops, served simply and unadorned with a side dish of corn pudding. Great for lunch as well as dinner, the menu features everything from sophisticated salmon dishes to gourmet hot dogs and oyster po’boys. The charming dining room provides a fitting backdrop for flavorful all-American cuisine.’
been a while since I’ve eaten there. Reading this is making me want to venture downtown again sometime soon.
Errr rose=race. Too early in the morning!
Perhaps Mr Whiteley should let Ms Vorderman assess the data.
Not necessarily an either-or.
YouGov’s only had two of these two-point leads, with the rest being 5’s, 6’s or 7’s. ComRes got something similar, and ICM was showing 7% last time while YouGov was showing 6%.
Bearing in mind the margins of error on the leads, what we’ve seen is consistent with everybody showing an underlying 6%, which in extreme cases shows up as 9% at one end or 2% at the other. Add in a bit of natural variation in the underlying position, and/or things like a bit of variation based on what day of the week you poll on, and this doesn’t look particularly improbable.
Alternatively there might be say a 1% systematic difference between what the YouGov methodology gives right now and what ICM gives. But both firms have very good records - it would be quite eccentric to disregard either of them.
In my experience, all to many pollsters from the groves of academe have a cavalier disregard for proper professional standards. Because they are (with a few honorable exceptions) a bunch of amateurs.
Remember the panel of American political “scientists” who back in 2000 unanimously predicted the election of Al Gore? Well, he DID get the most votes (maybe even in Florida) but, holy baloney!
I am confused at the SOCIOLOGICAL reasons for the Yougov weighting changes though.
Why are men over 55 responding so much faster to their daily surveys than other groups? Why do so few Labour voters, be they loyal/disloyal, appear in their sample?
Making naive and stereotypical assumptions about parts of the Labour voting bloc which might not pass full muster with Harriet Harman, you might have thought that they would be faster to respond, especially on weekdays.
12, TimT - thanks for the review, bro - sure does sound yummy.
Yesterday I had an excellent oyster po’boy at a little place here in Seattle that I’d only just heard of, called King Creole and located on Cherry St in the Central District (the Emerald Ciy’s original Black neighborhood). Fellow who runs it is orginally from NO, 9th Ward. Took one bite and I knew them ersters was the real deal. Only thing lacking was a cold Dixie beer!
- “Will you be betting on the YouGov family or ICM?”
Neither. I’m an Angus Reid (and Andy Cooke “Plus”/”Turbo Version”) man.
Despite recent (supposed) setbacks for FM Dave, I’m still predicting a fairly easy, and a fairly large CON MAJ (delivered by England-only), despite (or perhaps because of) all the efforts of the BBC.
Nothing can hide one glaring fact: the Labour Party are dirty dirty dirty, and England desperately needs change. FM Dave is fairly useless and spineless, but at least he is not corrupt from top to toe. In an emergency, he’ll just have to do.
Of course, this political chaos in Westminster/Whitehall suits my own political party right down to the ground. The bigger mess London-based politics is in, the more the Scots and the Welsh will look to Edinburgh and Cardiff.
6. wibbler - “I still regard ICM as the gold standard… “
So do I. And as far as I can tell, so do most people “in the know”.
Just a shame that the Scotsman stopped commissioning ICM to do Scotland v.i. polls. We all know why!
Us Scots have to rely on Ipsos-MORI’s quarterly polls (probably a tad too optimistic on the SNP front), the barking-mad weightings of YouGov (which weights Labour-identifiers to SNP-identifiers at over 2.5 to 1, despite the SNP coming out as the largest political party in Scotland at the last 2 national elections), and the sincere but naive TNS-BMRB (which does not even weight its Scottish polls by past vote; although it does so for its GB polls: how odd is that?)
Would someone please, please, please commission ICM (or any other pollster) to do a Scottish poll. We need a different perspective.
Surely there are more front pages than this?
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Front-Pages-Of-The-National-Newspapers-On-Sunday-March-7-2010/Media-Gallery/201003115568641?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15568641_Front_Pages_Of_The_National_Newspapers_On_Sunday_March_7%2C_2010
Overall, worse for Labour than the Tories - though the Samantha Cameron story will get all the attention.
19 Stuart Dickson
From your perspective, where do you see the Purcell story developing?
Presumably it will have little effect on voting intention within Glasgow itself, but do you think it has the legs to shore up support for non-Lab parties (particularly SNP) elsewhere?
Reposting FTP on this:
Liberal Democrats rule out deal with Gordon Brown
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052611.ece
Seems to me that switching the leader gets both Labour and the LibDems out of a hole; Labour gets to switch their leader, who even if he manages to scrape a Hung Parliament, is probably not turning out to be as popular as they had originally hoped. The LibDems get to show they’ve made some kind of change, and they’re not just propping up a PM on his last legs.
Also, I think this is sensible positioning for Clegg for the campaign, and will look even more so after a few weeks of Cameron and Brown slagging each other off. Vote Conservative if you like David Cameron and you’ll get David Cameron. Vote Labour if you like Gordon Brown and you’ll get Gordon Brown. Vote LibDem if you don’t like either of them, and you won’t get either of them.
So the interesting questions are:
1) If the LibDems said they wouldn’t have him, would Gordon resign of his own accord?
2) If he didn’t want to go quietly, could Labour force him out and get someone else as PM?
3) If they got someone else, who? (Tim’s tip, Alistair Darling?)
This probably deserves its own thread. Mike’s led on all kinds of improbable scenarios that were supposed to get rid of Brown. It would be a shame if he missed the one that might actually happen…
23 Edmund in Tokyo
Agree that this is the most plausible coalition scenario. It solves a lot of Labour’s problems. I am not sure it will work well for the Lib Dems, but power is power.
Unfortunately, it presumably requires Lab as largest party in a HP, which is highly unlikely even on 2 point leads.
Would Clegg really go against the “mandate” of the British people by teaming up with the reds if they won both fewer votes and fewer seats than the blues?
22. wibbler
The Scottish Labour Party have well and truly shot themselves in the foot with their entrenched line that the SNP are somehow “anti-Glasgow”.
For a start, it is a load of pants (I speak as the former Convener of the SNP’s Glasgow City Centre branch). But everything the Scottish Labour Party says is a load of pants, so why is this load of pants worse for SLAB than all their other loads of pants?
Well, the quid pro quo of the SNP being supposedly “anti-Glasgow” is that the SNP are pro-the-rest-of-the-country. Believe you me, in Falkirk, Linlithgow, Livingston, Edinburgh, Haddington, Dunfermline, Alloa, Glenfarg, Blairgowrie, Dundee, Montrose, Aberdeen, Fraserburgh, Elgin, Nairn, Inverness, Dingwall, Thurso, Stornoway, Mallaig, Inverary, and all the other East/North of Scotland places the SNP needs to get its vote out come May, being painted as “Anti-Glasgow” could actually be the SNP’s trump card.
SSI Not yet made it out to Seattle. If I do, I’ll try King Creole.
So far, PB has proven excellent for food advice. Seth O Logue told me to look out for pastilla while in Morocco. My contact there got his wife to make it for lunch. Spectacular. Met up with TimB in Atlanta, had excellent steak. Perhaps I should put a call out for eating out suggestions each time I travel.
wibbler @24: “Would Clegg really go against the “mandate” of the British people by teaming up with the reds if they won both fewer votes and fewer seats than the blues?”
Well, that’s precisely the hook that a change of leader gets them off. The electorate was asked whether they wanted Cameron or Brown, and they voted “neither”. So that’s what they’ll get.
What makes this even easier is if the Tories spend the whole campaign telling everyone that voting for the LibDems is a vote to keep Labour in office. Like “Vote Blair, Get Brown”, by telling everybody that that’s what’s going to happen if they vote that way, they have less cause for complaint when people do vote that way, and it does.
That said, two caveats:
1) There’s a big chunk of plausible results where Lib/Lab just don’t have enough votes between them to form a government, or even if they do don’t have enough votes to pass electoral reform, which is part of the attraction of the arrangement for the LibDems.
2) Organizing this in a post-election environment is not necessarily easy, especially if Brown refuses to go quietly.
22. wibbler - “Presumably it will have little effect on voting intention within Glasgow itself… “
I wouldn’t bet on that. The Scottish media have been trying desperately to keep the lid on the full scale of this story, but today’s Sunday Times gives a hint (and only a hint) of the full scale of the storm about to hit John Smith House:
Steven Purcell ‘admits use of cocaine’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7052653.ece
So the lawyers have stopped the stories on purcell for now.
He had better leave before the police give him another visit.
Just to check he is entirely innocent of course and verify that nobody has anything which can incriminate him.
Is there anything he won’t stoop to?
Fury over Gordon Brown’s ‘cynical’ letter to murder victim’s local paper: PM accused of playing politics over killing of Huddersfield shopkeeper
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256069/Fury-Gordon-Browns-cynical-letter-murder-victims-local-paper-PM-accused-playing-politics-killing-Huddersfield-shopkeeper.html#ixzz0hT5xMFpX
A private letter would have been more appropriate, it’s not as if he hasn’t done that sort of thing before. This is just low politics.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256069/Fury-Gordon-Browns-cynical-letter-murder-victims-local-paper-PM-accused-playing-politics-killing-Huddersfield-shopkeeper.html
Sorry about the double link above, I forgot the Mail has an embedded one.
By the way, Danus McKinlay did not just “collapse in the street”, as reported by today’s Sunday Times. In fact, he collapsed in the street right outside Glasgow’s City Chambers. A strange little omission of detail from the Sunday Times.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2881015/Shock-death-of-former-Glasgow-council-chief-Steven-Purcells-pal-Danus-McKinlay.html
You have not heard the last of this saga.
@29 - he’s already legged to OZ, if newspaper reports are to be believed, for up to a year.
@29 here you go redcliffe
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2010/03/06/exclusive-former-labour-chief-steven-purcell-flees-scotland-to-escape-stress-86908-22089395/
32 - Stuart, chances are that the boy’s death is an unfortunate coincidence and, knowing Glasgow as a resident, I don’t expect it to change the ‘vote for anything in a red rosette’ to change.
Re: Edmund in Tokyo’s scenario, in 1992 during the Irish Labour Party led by it’s leader Dick Spring fought against the incumbent Fianna Fail goverment led by Albert Reynold tooth and nail. Then after the election, which resulted in a record number of Labour TDs, Spring astounded the public and politicos - including Fine Gael leader John Bruton - by going into goverment with FF.
A few years later, Spring withdrew Labour from its coalition with FF (over the pedophile-priest-wanted-in-NI-but-protected-by-the-FF-AG scandal) and went into a new goverment coalition with FG.
Rather fancy ballet steps! Unfortuantely for Spring and Labour, the public was not totally dazzled by such artistry. And gave Labour such a shellacking and at the subsequent general election that they’ve yet to recover or even come close to power (though their luck may change at the next GE).
22. wibbler - “… do you think it has the legs to shore up support for non-Lab parties (particularly SNP) elsewhere?”
Hmmm… that old chestnut?!?
I know that non-Scots may fondly imagine that we are all just champing at the bit in our eagerness to kick the Labour Party in the goolies via anti-Labour tactical voting. But the hard truth is that just ain’t gonna happen.
The bogey-man of Scottish politics is still (somewhat to my own personal amazement) the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. It is them, and not Labour, who will still suffer most from tactical voting.
We do not, as a rule, think in terms of “non-Lab parties”, but rather in terms of “non-Scottish parties”. And the Tories are the gift that just keeps on giving in that respect.
It bears repeating: Scotland and England really are two different countries.
28, SD
“The Sunday Times has learnt that Purcell revealed to friends and colleagues last Saturday that he was a user of cocaine. At his home in the west end of Glasgow, it was alleged that on a three-day trip to London on council business last month he used the drug several times.”
Set aside the subjet matter, and just try to parse out this mess of a paragraph. Can’t the ST afford a decent proofreader????
35. Kristin - “… I don’t expect it to change the ‘vote for anything in a red rosette’ to change.”
I’m not so sure.
Political commentators (and we all know what that means in the Scottish context) seem to have concluded that Glasgow East was just an aberration, and that Glasgow North East returned the city’s politics to “business as usual”.
I am not so sure.
Deep waters flow slowly, but with tremendous power. Glasgow East was just a small indication of the way the long-term political tides are flowing.
38. SSI
The Telegraph, the Sunday Times, the Financial Times, the Economist…
The list is long of once-mighty journals that cannot report basic facts correctly, cannot string a coherent sentence together, and cannot apply intelligent/detached criticism to current affairs.
AND the bu**ers regularly steal from blogs, without the courtesy of a hat-tip.
39 - I hear what you are saying Stuart but I’ll believe it when i see it. They don’t do politics here, they just vote Labour. Let’s face it if you are getting your council tax paid for you then you’re hardly going to be bothered if the council gets up to shennanigans with other peoples money.
POLL ALERT - CELLO mruk/Sunday Times Scotland
Huh! No sooner do I beg for a new pollster, than one pops along.
But no Voting Intention figures have been published by the Sunday Times. I wonder why?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7052648.ece
http://www.mruk.co.uk/
Ivor Knox of mruk is listed in the British Polling Council’s list of Company Representatives, so we ought to have the juicy details by Tuesday, at the latest.
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers.html
Although I note that there is no Ivor Knox listed at mruk’s staff:
http://www.mruk.co.uk/people.html
On the polls, i’m still minded to to side with ICM, as I said on the previous thread they haven’t messed about with their weightings like YOUGOV, and I’d say that even if they converged. The 2% last week really does look like an outlier.
Ivor Knox of mruk is listed in the British Polling Council’s list of Company Representatives, so we ought to have the juicy details by Tuesday, at the latest.
Although I note that there is no Ivor Knox listed at mruk’s staff.
(Whoever is moderating, please delete those two duplicate posts sitting in the moderation queue. I can never fathom PB’s filter: it seems to dislike totally innocuous words.)
40
Mail on Sunday also lowering standards in their own little way:
“Sex and the City star Sarah Jessica Parker is stunned to discover that one of her relatives was accused of witchcraft during the Salem trials and narrowly avoided being burnt at the steak as she traces her family roots.”
If BPIX do as well this time as last time then in a way I don’t see why they should reveal their methodology. We don’t expect all producers to tell us their methods, for instance food manufacturers. What counts is whether they get it right. Last time they did, so it would be very foolish to dismiss them. Remember the rule about polls you don’t like!
As for the comment that Brown was cynical going to Afghanistan, or that they’re being dirty. Yep, well they’re politicians: what do you expect. None of them are saints and they’re all trying to win power. At least this is going to be a lively election: Labour show no signs now of giving up the ghost. The thought of Cameron’s (Etonian) cronies winning seems to be firing up the Labour core support once more.
Did they really write burnt at the steak?
I’m stunned The Mirror decided to trump our Venables story with the actual charges. The papers are getting WELL dodgy on this story now.
‘Wrongdoing must be public property’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7052453.ece
48 - In that case I can confirm that the DROE/MADEUPONTHESPOT exclusive poll for PBC (no charge) has the following figures:
Con 40
Lab 31
Lib 19
By the way, I think the biggest popularist story doing the rounds right now is the Jon Venables one. Labour need to be INCREDIBLY careful over this. If I were Jack Straw I’d be seeing Denise Bulger first thing tomorrow morning and showing a bit more proactive concern for the sentiments which most people share. Blow the judiciary - don’t they realise there’s an election coming
Readers don’t know that papers use lawyers?
In that case, readers are thick.
I’ve had one real discovery over the weekend. The fact that when we released the ’sex charge’ story at 3am on Saturday it wasn’t picked up by ‘24-hour’ news until the morning shift logged on hours later was eye-opening.
30 - The Conservatives would never stoop to using the specifics of a terrible crime to make a general political point would they? I mean, they have never done that and never would.
52. David Roe
Con 40, Lab 31, SNP 0 ?!?
Now THAT would be news!!
(David, the CELLO mruk poll was in Scotland-only. Highly unlikely that it had the CONS at 40% -> probably less than half of that.)
Yesterday evening, on her private blog, the Sunday Times Scotland columnist Joan McAlpine published this:
- “Our paper also have a great Focus news feature which shines a light on the murky Labour establishment of councillors, lawyers, quangocrats, property speculators, car dealers and nightclub owners who still exercise enormous – but often invisible – power in the West of Scotland.”
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/06/icm-has-the-blues-back-in-the-40s/#comment-1462818
Two hours later, this sentence had mysteriously been chopped from her blog post. And I note that no such “Focus” article appears in the online edition of the Sunday Times Scotland.
Funny that.
Who are the Sunday Times’ lawyers north of the border?
30 - Whoops, it looks like I as wrong:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/01/23/david-cameron-sparks-fury-by-using-the-doncaster-child-torture-case-for-point-scoring-115875-21989241/
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/10/12/cameron-i-m-sorry-for-shannon-slur-115875-21740725/
Just done a yougov. Lots of branding stuff but also some questions on Cameron/Conservatives, Brown/Labour. No VI but a question on which of the 2 you would prefer to see as PM.
56 - OK sorry, the ‘fully weighted’ DROE/MADEUPONTHESPOT Scottish poll found we’re in for a stunning election north of the border. These results are sure to send shockwaves through the political class.
Lab - 32
SNP - 32
Con - 23
Lib - 10
57 - No idea, honestly.
David Roe
Sorry for being dim (body clock kicked in physically not mentally) as you’ve probably answered this question, but which paper do you work for and in what capacity? Cheers!
Also, if you’re going to comment from such a position (please do!!) have you thought about some sort of post nominal like our MP fellow-posters? Doesn’t have to be initials!
S
57 - I think my made up polls are more revealing than dragging up old stories from The Mirror…
53. Could it be that it was picked up by the night-time juniors but thought too hot to handle until they’d got their backsides covered about what they could say?
It may be the biggest popular story at the moment but just because one newspaper or another has lead a charge into potentially legally dubious territory, it doesn’t mean the rest of the media has to follow.
What the new aspect of Bulger story does do on a political level is (a) remove Ashcroft from the narrative and (b) focus attention back on the government and its actions.
60 - I’m the online sub-editor for the Scottish Sun. I also work occasionally for The Sunday Times as an online sports sub and have worked in the past at the Daily Mail and used to be Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland editor at Dod’s.
There, my CV.
I think that using my real name stops me from going mentally partisan.
I’ve occasionally thought of stopping using my real name now that I know so many people read this but it has never been mentioned to me at work in either a positive or negative way. I’ve never either lost or gained work from posting here so I can only assume I can continue as I am.
57 - FWIW I don’t like any politician using specific cases. There’s a world of difference in those two cases though. A private letter was more appropriate.
David Roe:
Lab 32% (-7)
SNP 32% (+14)
Con 23% (+7)
Lib 10% (-13)
You know something David, I would not be all that surprised if that wasn’t within the MoE of the real result come May.
Perhaps SNP and Tories a tad lower, and Lib Dems not quite THAT catastrophic.
How does this sound?
Lab 33% (-6)
SNP 27% (+9)
Con 20% (+4)
Lib 16% (-7)
The Lib Dems are going to be bubbling for month and months after polling day, but even I find it impossible to believe that they will plumb the depths at 10%. That would be real “Core Vote Only” territory for the SLDs.
Eg. I think that Fred Mackintosh may even manage to gain Edinburgh South from Labour.
65 - If the Labour vote is going down in Scotland, doesn’t that mean that the recent rises in the party’s vote picked up in the opinion polls must be taking place in England?
O/T One of the saddest stories in the news at the moment is the one regarding the five year old boy kidnapped in Pakistan. Let’s hope they are pulling out all the stops.
Here’s the Joan McAlpine story
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7052453.ece
66. SO - “… the recent rises in the party’s vote picked up in the opinion polls must be taking place in England?”
I’m afraid that I do not accept the premise that the opinion polls have “picked up” any such thing.
The Labour Party is in just as big a mess as it was in 2008 and 2009. Too many people made their minds up about the party back then. The die is cast.
The only thing that can save Labour now is widespread, systematic electoral fraud. You know they want to!
I’d like to see them try it, just to see how Gordon’s “fragile personality” copes with a period spent at HMP Edinburgh.
Mind the soap Gordon! They don’t “play nice” like those lovely folks in Cape Cod.
David Roe: *tips hat* - thank you!
Kristin: Three things, firstly that UK Law Enforcement have an excellent record when it comes to kidnapping (ha ha yes very funny), that there are plenty of people in Pakistan in a position to help where they can, from a number of different agencies, and thirdly, had he been a blond haired girl, do we think that this story might have gained even more traction? Perhaps one for David R, but I wouldn’t blame him for passing…
66 - I can’t work out if that’s a serious question.
In the assumption that it is, the YouGov polls that have Labour close have got enormous and unrealistic figures for Labour in Scotland which actually suggests that the Tory lead in England and Wales is huge.
Sorry.
67 - It is very sad but a westerner even from a Pakistani background travelling to bandit country is always going to be at risk.
65 - I was having a bit of a joke with the LD prediction.
Your figures look pretty good to me.
A 9 point is quite a reasonable one, I think.
Mrs. Cameron never voted Labour:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/03/samantha-cameron-has-never-voted-labour.html
Vaizey ought to have his bollocks pulverised with a hammer. Berk.
@70 Sekundra, to be fair the interview with his mum has been on all the channels from what I’ve seen and though it’s not on the front page anymore it is covered on the beeb
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8553333.stm
& Sky
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Pakistan-Kidnap-Boy-Mother-Renews-Plea-For-Sahil-Saeed-To-Be-Returned/Article/201003115568208?lpos=UK_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15568208_Pakistan_Kidnap_Boy%3A_Mother_Renews_Plea_For_Sahil_Saeed_To_Be_Returned_
70 - It would have been a bigger story but anyone travelling in rural Pakistan with a blonde-haired young girl should be either arrested or thrown in an asylum.
22.23,27.
Re Lib dems and hung parliament.Lib Dems really need a clear statement at thier Spring conference next weekend.
The best position,both for the election campaign itself and lnger trem for the next Parliament is to rule out ant coalition with either party who would then form a minority Government or a coalition of others.
On the issue of ICM v You Gov I’m in the ICM camp.I therefore dont believe we will get a hung Parliament anyway.
You gov have a sysytemic difference with other pollsters.First they tend to overstate Labour-and on Mikes Labour rule always take the lowest figure.Second as Kwllner admitted on this site You gov tend to have the Lib dems below other polling orgnsations.finnally becasue they dont weight by the strength of voting intention then the Tory figure is also understated.
The correctioni would apply toYou Gov to bring it in line with other pollsters is Lab -2,Con +1,Lib +1.
Going back to ICM it provdes useful past info on the LIb Dem squeeze.taking the 97,01and 05 Ge’s if we define the pre election camapign as January to the month before the election,then the Lib Dem ICM Gurdian poll ratings virtually stayed still wit ha 0.5% increase.During the month of the actual campaign to the actual result theyadded afurther 1%.(Jack posted his theory on this last night related to higher media coverage in the actual campaign.
If the 2010 campaign followed the same pattern ,then the Lib dems would be on c 20/21% on ICM by the end of March and finish up on 21/22%.Of course a hung Parliament scenario could make it different from the past and give a sqeeze -hence the urgent need forthe Lib Dems to avoid the “vote yellow and get Brown” accusation.
Finally since I’m in the ICM camp I don,t think there will be a hung parliament and have the Tory’s with a 40 -50 overall majority with the final shares of Con 41.5%,Lab 28%,Lib 20.5%.Oth 10%.
Here’s Guido’s take on BPIX
guidofawkes
Voters Want Clear Tory Policies: Mixed messages abound from pollsters, here is another one. A Mail/BPIX poll sugg… http://bit.ly/92hCO5
I’ll be honest, I have no problem with anyone married to a senior Tory voting Labour. People are allowed to think for themselves.
Kristin, I’m getting a ‘404 Error’ from your Joan McAlpine link there.
Can you give us a taster of what it says?
71 - Haven’t all polls shown a rise in Labour’s UK support over recent months? The issue with the polls is much more about whether Tory support has fallen. If, as you and Stuart contend, this UK rise is against the backdrop of declining support in Scotland, surely that must indicate that there has been a significant rise in Labour support in England. A couple of weeks back on here, the Labour rise was being generally explained away on the basis that it was happening in Scotland. My understanding is that you are saying this is not so.
Stuart: “Wrongdoing must be Public Property”
“His lawyers claim he is a sick man harassed by the press. But to suggest that there is no legitimate public interest in Steven Purcell’s situation is disingenuous and dangerous. The press and public would be entitled to ask questions even if the story was a straightforward one of sudden resignation because of mental breakdown, as his PR spokesman claimed last week. After all, Andrew Marr asked the Prime Minister outright on television whether he was taking prescription medication.
Steven Purcell is not running the country. But he does make decisions that affect the lives of the 600,000 people who depend on Glasgow City Council services. He also spends their council tax. He is responsible for a budget of £2.3 billion and the employment of 40,000 people. He had ambitions to even greater power and was tipped by his supporters as a future first minister. Of course his state of mind matters. Leaders need to be able to take big decisions under pressure.
There have been more serious allegations — claims that council officers wanted Purcell to issue a statement admitting to “chemical dependence”. Although we know he was briefly resident in a clinic specialising in addiction, his spokesman said the suggestion that Purcell was treated for drug problems was untrue and issued a letter from a psychiatrist to back him up.
If Purcell had a problem with drugs, would that be a private matter? Addiction is, after all, an illness and employers have a duty of care to sick employees. But a politician in a position of power who abused illegal drugs — and I am not suggesting Purcell did — would have broken the law. Voters have a right to know that. Possession of cocaine, for example, carries a maximum eight-year prison sentence. An elected member dependent on illegal drugs could also be compromised and the more power and influence he has, the more open he is to blackmail and bribery. He may come into contact with criminal elements to obtain the drug. If his habit is severe, how does he fund it? A politician with a coke habit is a greater liability than a pop star with a coke habit. Amy Winehouse is pilloried for her behaviour, but her addiction really only harms herself and her family.
Rumours and allegations about Purcell have been circulating all week on the internet. That means nothing, of course. But the speculation has been fuelled by Purcell’s lawyers issuing legal threats to silence the council. The Scottish media — with one notable exception — has been highly cautious in its approach to what is a huge story. Purcell’s departure was reported as “a mystery”. The statement about stress and exhaustion was not seriously challenged. Yet how to explain the silence from senior Labour figures? No tributes poured forth from Jim Murphy, Iain Gray or Gordon Brown. It was left to Alex Salmond to praise Purcell’s legacy — even though the former councillor had recently worked hard to undermine SNP policy on class sizes and threw his weight behind a campaign suggesting the nationalists were “anti-Glasgow”.
Columnists nevertheless rushed to praise the “reforming leader” whose loss would, they suggested, hurt his party, his city and Scotland as a whole. Some tributes were the most hagiographic articles penned about a Scottish politician since Donald Dewar died a decade ago.
Compare the judicious approach to stories about Purcell with the coverage of another Glasgow celebrity having a hard time last week. Leah Shevlin, the girlfriend of Rangers goalkeeper Allan McGregor, was charged with wasting police time after reporting that her fiancé was beaten up by thugs. This incident could also be described as “a mystery” and Shevlin is innocent until proven guilty. But that didn’t stop tabloids publishing pictures of the statuesque WAG alongside the words “Liar Leah!”
One could argue this was contempt of court, but it takes a lot to intimidate the doughty Scottish press corps. Two people who do seem to get hardened hacks all a-tremble are Purcell’s newly appointed PR man, the former tabloid publisher and editor Jack Irvine, and Peter Watson, the formidable solicitor advocate who is senior partner with Levy & McRae, Purcell’s lawyers. Last week they said speculation about Purcell’s health was an invasion of privacy which breached the European Human Rights Act as well as the Press Complaints Commission’s code for the industry. Levy & McRae also complained that council officials had broken data protection laws by “leaking” the stories about the troubled ex-councillor.
A number of newspapers took heed of the warnings and kept coverage low key. What their readers probably do not know is that Levy & McRae also advise several Scottish newspapers on what it is safe to print. That means their lawyers sit in the newsroom beside journalists, reading stories and alerting editors to potential legal problems.
Levy & McRae are a respected firm and would have declared their conflict of interest and asked the newspapers to get another company to legal any stories about their client Purcell. But it would be surprising if informal professional and friendship networks did not influence editors’ decisionmaking in such cases. It is certainly worth noting that the most serious allegations about Purcell were published by The Scotsman, a paper which does not use Levy & McRae.
Irvine is also a persuasive man. One of Scotland’s most successful public relations experts, he is robust in his defence of his clients. He controls access to an impressive range of individuals and companies. As a consequence, he is in many ways more powerful than the celebrities and businessmen he represents. He works closely with Watson of Levy & McRae. To give some idea of how significant the legal firm is, it once employed the justice secretary Kenny MacAskill as a young solicitor. They recently represented the Lord Advocate Elish Angiolini against a journalist who was making allegations about her decisions when she was a procurator fiscal in Aberdeen.
The Purcell affair casts light on a Scottish establishment which sometimes appears to operate in a way that is too cliquish for comfort. It also beams Scotland straight to the centre of the debate about developments in privacy law that are a serious threat to the freedoms we ought to be able to take for granted in a democracy.
Kate Middleton, the girlfriend of Prince William, recently won a breach of privacy case against a photographer who snapped her playing tennis on holiday. Middleton remains a private individual and nobody wishes to see her tormented in the same way as William’s late mother, Diana, Princess of Wales.
But the principle on which Middleton won her action could be extended further to prevent investigative journalism into matters of public interest. This has already happened in the case of Max Mosley, the Formula One boss who won a privacy action against a newspaper which revealed he had enjoyed orgies with prostitutes. The “immorality” of the act was not enough to justify the intrusion. Now Mosley has gone to Europe to get the UK privacy laws made even more draconian. If he is successful, media outlets intending to publish stories which could violate an individual’s privacy must warn them in advance. This will allow the rich to take out interdicts to quash stories that embarrass them Levy & McRae appear to be arguing that Purcell’s private life falls into the same category as that of Middleton and Mosely. But the European Human Rights Act also contains a clause protecting freedom of expression. The Press Complaints Commission code allows journalists to compromise privacy orders to expose wrong-doing or hypocrisy. The case of Steven Purcell is most certainly a personal tragedy. But, sad as it might be for the promising politician, it is a tragedy worthy of public scrutiny.”
joan.mcalpine@sunday-times.co.uk
77 - The Tories are way out ahead on immigration and crime already, so what would be the point of spending more time highlighting them?
79 @Stuart, you can find it on the Times Scotland news page lower down, but the general gist is with reagrds to privacy laws..
Wrongdoing must be public property
Here’s a bit from the middle, it’s a long article.
Columnists nevertheless rushed to praise the “reforming leader” whose loss would, they suggested, hurt his party, his city and Scotland as a whole. Some tributes were the most hagiographic articles penned about a Scottish politician since Donald Dewar died a decade ago.
Compare the judicious approach to stories about Purcell with the coverage of another Glasgow celebrity having a hard time last week. Leah Shevlin, the girlfriend of Rangers goalkeeper Allan McGregor, was charged with wasting police time after reporting that her fiancé was beaten up by thugs. This incident could also be described as “a mystery” and Shevlin is innocent until proven guilty. But that didn’t stop tabloids publishing pictures of the statuesque WAG alongside the words “Liar Leah!”
..
A number of newspapers took heed of the warnings and kept coverage low key. What their readers probably do not know is that Levy & McRae also advise several Scottish newspapers on what it is safe to print. That means their lawyers sit in the newsroom beside journalists, reading stories and alerting editors to potential legal problems.
81- I agree that wrong doing must be public property, but not innocent people playing tennis. Journos need to know their boundaries.
Err… Sekundra… that story had already been linked to, and it is NOT the “Focus” article wich McAlpine was referring to last night on her blog. That is just McAlpine’s regular column this week.
@82 - SO - the implication being that the message hasn’t got across to some people.
Sky mixing up YouGov and ICM polls.
I don’t understand why Ed Vaizey wants to make anews story out of Camerons wife voting Labour.
Did he think it would help Camerons appeal to centrist voters?
Surely they are the ones least likely to presume couples should vote the same way.
…If Mark Thompson, the director-general of the BBC, is at a loss to know what the BBC should stand for, he ought to take a look at a video of his appearance on Newsnight last week:
it was all there, everything that’s good about the corporation, condensed into six minutes.
There was challenging and innovative drama, as a nervous bearded man was eviscerated by one of his high-born employees, the sort of production you might have got if Terence Rattigan had ever collaborated with Quentin Tarantino. There was classic comedy as Jeremy Paxman read out to his interviewee the evening’s schedule for the fabulously pointless BBC4, which consisted of four repeats of a documentary about a fictional kangaroo…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rod_liddle/article7052477.ece
Nope, Kristin, there is nothing in there about the murky Labour establishment of quangocrats, property speculators, car dealers or nightclub owners.
That is NOT the mysterious article McAlpine was referring to last night.
Having a politics free day today - it’s all getting ridiculous.
84 - Stuart, I think that’s the only one.
85 - I think they would be foolish to start talking about immigration and crime when these are natural Tory win spots in any case. It is posible that the Tories will haul back votes from the BNP and UKIP by doing this, but they would also run the risk of alienating the moderate suppor they have spent a good deal of time building up. It makes much more sense to me for them to concentrate on the economy and hitting Labour hard. Rather like Cameron did yesterday.
Exactly Kristin. The Sunday Times have pulled their exposé on the Scottish Labour Mafia Party. I wonder why?
87 - Ed Vaizey is a funny bloke. He seems to have a column on the Guardian website at least once a week. I am wondering whether there is an element of the love that dare not speak its name in him.
92 - That should have been “talking about immigrationa nd crime more than they are now”. Obviously, they are legitimate subjects of debate; the danger is in over-emphasising them.
@89 Stuart, that is the article that appeared overnight, maybe taking about privacy laws means she’s been nobbled.
Latest YouGov Scottish sub-sample (usual caveats apply):
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 36% (-3)
SNP 32% (+14)
Con 18% (+2)
LD 12% (-11)
BNP 1% (+1)
Grn 1% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (+1)
oth 0
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results_04.03-trackers.pdf
96 taking = talking.
96. Kristin - “… maybe taking about privacy laws means she’s been nobbled.”
Yes, I agree. That is how I interpret her column today: she is trying to tell the world that the lawyers have cut The Big Story from today’s edition.
It is a shame, but the truth will out eventually.
The Good Guys always win in the end.
Sekundra, I’m only guessing that your post of that article has probably been removed for a) being too long and b) we don’t usually post entire articles, an excerpt and a link to original source.
@99 Stuart -
this bit spells it out..
Levy & McRae are a respected firm and would have declared their conflict of interest and asked the newspapers to get another company to legal any stories about their client Purcell. But it would be surprising if informal professional and friendship networks did not influence editors’ decisionmaking in such cases. It is certainly worth noting that the most serious allegations about Purcell were published by The Scotsman, a paper which does not use Levy & McRae.
Anyone got instant cure for a lousy cold ? I’m suffering at home today when I should be in England.
Ooooh… how exciting! The SNP price is shortening in Aberdeen North!
Bookies’ best prices - Aberdeen North (incumbent: Frank Doran, Lab maj over Lib Dem = 6,795)
Lab 4/11 (Ladbrokes)
SNP 2/1 (VC)
LD 28/1 (VC)
Con 100/1 (Lad, PP, VC)
By the way, Frank Doran appears to be yet another Scottish Labour MP who has still not officially been re-selected as their PPC. Very, very odd.
The ICM result is the right one. But the same team that runs You Gov is lined up to fix the election result to match. Since Cameron declared an intention to renegotiate on Lisbon and repatriate powers, he’s been dumped by the ’system’. The media is controlled. The polls are controlled. So unfortunately are election results.
87 tim
I doubt much is sacred to any politician, but the reputation of family must be pretty high up the tree. I am not sure Vaizey will be in line for many promotions given this gaffe.
103. Kirstin, when I lived in the Philippines, anyone with a cold (Usually caused by aircon) went to the pharmacist and asked for a cold pill. You could have drowsy and non-drowsy versions. Within 24 hours any cold was fixed by either one.
In the UK these are not sold. If you need to get some, get someone over there to visit Mercury Drug and send you a batch over. They really work and save a lot of suffering.
106 - wibbler, that headline is complete mince, we all ‘might’ have voted for a particular party. I might have won the lottery, unfortunately last time I checked this wasn’t the case.
‘RBS branch sell-off hits the buffers’
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article7052491.ece
One guesses Ed Vaizey was not too keen on getting a job in a Cameron Govt. Maybe looking for one in a Labour Govt though.
Media is playing one side off against the other, hoping for a hung parliament so their rich owners can control the agenda. If Cameron sneaks in the first tax rise should be full VAT on newspapers (or opinion papers because they dont contain any news).
102 - YouGov is a publicly traded company whose co-founder and Group CEO is the Conservative candidate for Stratford upon Avon.
104 - Is it your contention that the Tory candidate for Stratford upon Avon is part of a conspiracy designed to ensure that the Tories lose the next election?
The “SamCam votes Labour” is such a ridiculous story anyway. How can it possibly be substantiated? And how on earth would Ed Vaizey know?
Haven’t really paid him much attention before, but he seems like a bit of a Grayling/Woolas class buffoon.
106 -
it really was a rhetorical question, but thabks for the reply. Actually a trip to the Philippines would probably sort it out 
‘Alex Salmond hopes for voter rage at the polls’
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Alex-Salmond-hopes-for-voter.6130386.jp
“Anyone got instant cure for a lousy cold ? ”
But you live in the land that produces the ultimate cold remedy!
112 - I think Vaizey is just repeating gossip. He is clearly a bit of a knob. It makes you wonder how on earth he got a position of responsibility in the shadow ministerial team. It’s not much of a story though, but at least it cannot provoke self-righteous screams of Labour smear on this board.
Regardless of who wins in the end, and I freely admit to being as partisan as anyone else here, analysing all these polls after the election is going to be fascinating! I’d have thought that, if there are still such large differences when we actually vote, any polling company that is way out of line with the result will lose a lot of business.
Guess what, the Unions are spending more in the marginals than Conservatives
Perhaps we’ll now get a week of stories on the BBC about Labour being in hoc to the trade union movement. Or perhaps we won’t.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2010/03/guess-what-the-unions-are-spending-more-in-the-marginals-than-the-conservatives.html
@115 - But you live in the land that produces the ultimate cold remedy!
by Gadfly March 7th, 2010 at 8:52 am
I wasn’t planning on swapping it for a hangover.
Stratford On Avon’s one of the safest seats in the country. Bercow is a Labour stooge in Buckingham. Why not another?
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark:
‘Police warned Steven Purcell about gangster link’
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Police-warned-Steven-Purcell-about.6130356.jp
111.sorry forgot to link 120 to any address. (excuse - mother’s just arrived from Melbourne)
102 Kristen, the old saying goes ‘Treat a cold and you can get rid of it in 7 days, left untreated it will last a week’. Caught early enough there are nasal sprays which can noble the viruses in the upper respiratory track, and minimise its impact, after that its ‘rest, warmth and plenty of fluids’. As an even older saying goes ‘The role of the Physician is to keep his patient diverted while nature takes its course’. Hot toddy (whisky, honey, hot water, ginger wine) in the evenings do no harm…
Doubt Purcell has gone to Australia for a year, IIRC max entry is 3 months as a tourist….
Observer has story about Queen, Tony Blair & ‘Move along now, nothing to see’…..
SSI
Thanks for the Washington hints. I really haven’t much looked at what to do because taking a week off work means getting a huge amount done before I go. I think of Washington as a bit like London in that you hop on the metro and pop out somewhere in front of some grand locations.
Since I used to have to navigate the London Underground on business I had some great times coming out of Underground stations only to find myself at Westminster and the middle of the City of London and so on.
Anyway, off for a jog.
Wasn’t it Clement Attlee’s wife who was always supposed to vote Tory? I’d have thought that it was the sign of a healthy marriage that the two partners have different ideas on some things.
I genuinely have no idea who my other half will vote for. I’m pretty sure it won’t be Labour, but he stunned me at the Mayoral elections when he told me that he was voting for Brian Paddick.
Vaizey spent last week praising the BBC for closing Radio 6 music then reversing once he had actually listened to it/studied it’s demographic.
Looking at his biography he seems to be a big fan of OKA, a small part of the Camerons inheritance. Although after this episode his middle name of Butler may be prophetic
On topic. YouGov has probably been correct in splitting its respondents into Labour-loyal and Labour-disloyal.
Actually, I’d classify them as ‘Blair-conservatives’ and ’socialists’. They have been two completely subsets within the Labour umbrella.
Notice I use the past tense. My experience on the doorstep canvassing in a Labour-held marginal yesterday tell me that the Blair-conservatives will not be voting for Labour. Not on their life.
I’m beginning to think that this is where YouGov’s getting itself in a muddle. Their weighting is erroneously making the assumption that those with a Labour ID have a desire to vote for Labour.
Whereas the ‘Blair-conservatives’ [that is, YouGov's Labour-disloyal] will actually vote tactically against Brown.
And, developing this point seems to prove the point that Labour & LibDems are fishing in the same pool.
It also gives extra credence to Andy Cooke’s insight. If the Blair-conservatives are now intending to vote tactically against Brown, it proves the 1997-unwind theory as fact.
But I think we need to probe Peter Kellner on the Labour-disloyal classification and whether it’s a proxy for ‘Blair Conservatives’. If it is, we need to ask the firm what it expects this group to do on polling day. And if YouGov is expecting this group to disproportionately turn-out for Labour, it gives us a strong reason to doubt the new methodology.
Eight people canvassing for two hours didn’t find a single Labour-loyal voter yesterday in a key Labour-held marginal. YouGov isn’t reflecting this and I think I’m beginning to understand why.
They’ve correctly identified the Labour-disloyal but have ascribed the wrong weighting to this group, the effect of which boosts the Labour share.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
CON odds lengthen in Stirling (one of the Scottish Tories’ top targets):
Bookies’ best prices - Stirling (incumbent: Anne McGuire, Lab maj over Con = 4,767)
Lab 6/4 (Hills)
Con 6/4 (Lad, PP)
SNP 10/3 (PP)
LD 25/1 (various)
111. Other Conservatives known to have sympathies with the EU and who are publicly talking about a Hung Parliament are Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine.
Francis Maude tried to ensure there were plenty of new recruits to the cause of treachery, through the A List. I’m sure he succeeded with getting a few in. Overall though, the eurosceptic wing is now much bigger then the europhile, in the coming-in Conservative Parliamentary Party. Maybe someone knows if the PPC for Stratford is a new member of the Fifth Column, or if he’s an innocent involved with the wrong set. I don’t.
Many of the wrong un’s are retiring. David Curry e.g, John Maples. Quentin crossed the floor. We won’t have too many left to burn at the stake.
For balance in the Mail, if that’s possible, vaizey isn’t the only MP to gaffe..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256086/Labours-migrant-policy-damaged-sons-education-says-Minister-Phil-Woolas.html
Yougov were previously useful - however the recent change in weighting and the dubious loaded questions have damaged its credibility.
Tapestry says “The media is controlled. The polls are controlled.” - this is very true. We used to laugh at how Russians were lied to. Lying to the public is now acceptable in the UK.
I often wonder whether my wife has ever had any doubts about voting for me.
@127 - bunnco, that’s an interesting take on the yougov classifications.
132 tim, yes she has. On many occasions.
Isn’t there a narrative that ties all the recent polls together?
1. If you weight for current certainty to vote, the Tory lead
is in high single figures.
2. If you don’t do that then the lead is in low single figures.
3. The swing is about 2 points higher in marginals, though this
effect seems to be lower than before.
4. The swing is higher in seats with lots of C2DE voters and lower
in the reverse. Marginals vary in this.
5. Since certainty to vote shifts more easily than allegiance, the
position is currently finely balanced.
Writing from fiddly Blackberry so apols for any odd typos.
Tapestry says “The media is controlled. The polls are controlled.”
The Daily Mail is still running the story the Samantha Cameron may have voted Labour, even after she state the opposite.
Is it no surprise that the Evening Standard is owned by an ex-KGB man. He now wants to buy the Independent.
@132 tim, a) would she tell you if she didn’t and b) would you believe her either way
I’m going to reserve judgement until we see whether Populus sides with ICM or YouGov tomorrow evening.
135 - The 25% in the ICM poll who did not know or would not say how they would vote looked like the big story to me.
“I wasn’t planning on swapping it for a hangover.”
Grin. On a more serious note, the best cold relief I know of is the “Non-Drowsy Sudafed Decongestant” tablets that contain 60mg of Pseudoephedrine hydrochloride. These are becoming harder to source because the active ingredient can be used illicitly.
Confusingly, there is a more readily available “Sudafed Congestion Relief” that contains a different active ingredient (Phenylephrine Hydrochloride) that it not nearly as effective.
BCC has downgraded forecasts for growth, 2.1% in 2011 which is a good deal lower than Darling’s 3.5%. As he is not announcing anymore cuts according to the Times just how is he planning cutting that deficit ?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7052557.ece
Nick Palmer MP, given the recent Ashcroft stories,
can you tell me is there a link between Labour’s Asian backers and Labour’s non-EU immigration policy?
The biggest immigration group is Indian - is it a coincidence that Labour’s favourite backers are Indian nondoms?
Keith Vaz has long lobbied for Indian’s to get easy immigration, arguing that Britain needs Curry cooks.
It is almost as if indian backers are paying Labour to make it easier for Indians to live in Britain.
139. I suspect a lot of thats to go with the TV debates. I imagine theres a lot of people who are with holding their vote until they see how the leaders perform. With the election looking very tight, these TV debates are going to be “make or break” I reakon.
Thanks Gadfly, I’ll send my husband out hunting.
The most interesting story today is No 10 allegedly trying to stop Cameron getting consular support on his recent trip to Afghanistan. No 10 of course have denied it, they would wouldn’t they,, but its so typically Gordon Brown that it has considerable credence.
118 “the Unions are spending more in the marginals than Conservatives”
How can the Union’s “modernisation grants” be justified?
it seems to me that a Labour government is paying millions to unions so that unions can campaign for Labour. This requires a criminal and HMRC investigation.
it seems to me that a Labour government is paying millions to unions so that unions can campaign for Labour. This requires an Electoral Commission investigation.
142
Keith Vaz is not Indian, as such.
Keith Vaz was born in 1956 in Aden, Yemen, to Indian parents. He moved to Bradford in England with his family in 1965. He was educated at Latymer Upper School, Hammersmith followed by Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge where he studied law and obtained a BA(1979), MA (1987), MCFI(1988).
Even though his parents are described as Indian they were I believe from Goa, which was then run by Portugal.
bunnco, I think you’ve got the Labour-disloyal thing backwards.
If I’ve got this right, Labour-disloyal are voters who identify with Labour but say they did not vote for Blair in 2005. Labour-loyal are voters who identify with Labour and say they did vote for Blair in 2005.
So your Blair-conservatives would have voted for Blair in 2005, while your Socialists would have defected over Iraq, either staying at home or voting for someone else.
We tend to assume - no idea if it’s true - that Blair-conservatives are the people in marginal seats who Labour need to defy UNS. But presumably when Labour actually lost to UNS in 2005, it’s your Socialists who they lost, not your Blair-conservatives. If getting them back reverses what happened in 2005, Labour should beat UNS again…
Personally I’m a bit unconvinced by all this speculation either way, because I think the divisions we’ve been using - your “Blair-conservative” vs “Socialist” stuff, other people’s “core” vs “middle-England” - are a too crude. If anyone out there has the data and the skillz to do a proper analysis of what demographics Labour is winning and losing and where they live, that would really help advance the discussion.
148 What is your point troll?
“I’ll send my husband out hunting.”
He’ll need to hunt in a p h a r m a c y.
TimMontgomerie
RT @Meliden Gordon needs advice on photo shoot! http://is.gd/9SfpG
Lost track of the Purcell stories, so apologies if ‘Rise and Fall of a Labour Star’ has already been posted:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7052533.ece
Why would it be embarrassing for Samantha Cameron to have voted Labour? Surely politicians are in the business of persuading us to change our views. Hard to see that it’s a cause of embarassment if we are actually persuaded to do so.
148 Dear troll, I never wrote that Keith Vaz is Indian, I never even said he is British. You are doing your normal distraction troll work.
Keith Vaz, that untainted politician of great moral standing, virtue and distinction, has long lobbied for Indian immigration - even lobbying for “the ability to cook curry” as a special skill needed by Britain.
Although, rarely do people say to me, “What this country needs is more people to cook curry”
Good Morning Jelly And Icecream Two Year Old Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Will Grandpa Smithson be playing the clown ??
Meanwhile …. Jack W gives you the golden answer to the polls :
BOUILLBAISSE !!!!!!
Ladies and gentleman it’s the fish soup of polls :
You take a stock of ICM, a tad of YouGov, a tiny addition of Angus Reid, a wee dribble of BPIX, a trifling of MORI, a paltry portion of Populus, a dash of TNS …. and a huge slice of Jack W’s ARSE …. finally a topping of personal political prejudice !!
Add the golden rules of Mike Smithson with a pinch of salt and a homily or two of your favourite Jacobite and you have the answer !!
It’s as simple as that !!
150
Get ‘yer facts right, Vaz has never lived in India. Strange anyone a Tory (I take it you are) does not like posting, (which is everyone who isn’t a Tory) is always a Troll, I am not a Troll I am a crusty ol’ lefty.
When you consider the joy,(quite right too)that Andrew Rawnsley’s book on GB brought to Tory posters, I do hope they won’t be screaming media bias etc, when this is shown.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/tory-adviser-cameron-tax-rises
From the BBC,
“25 January 2001: Opposition MPs begin to question the role the minister for Europe may have played in helping the billionaire Indian Hinduja brothers - linked with a corruption probe in India - to secure UK passports.”
2 March 2001: The Filkin report clears him of nine of 18 allegations of various financial wrongdoings” (leaving 9 others - see how BBC spins the positive).
“he is criticised for blocking her investigation into eight of the allegations. “
“Why would it be embarrassing for Samantha Cameron to have voted Labour?”
It isnt “embarrassing”. It is a lie. She has stated she has never voted Labour.
Is it true that Sarah Brown may have voted BNP?
Why stop at vote innuendo?
Is it true that Sarah Brown may have been a KGB agent?
157 Get ‘yer facts right Troll, I never said Vaz lived in India.
Moronic spamming troll.
Imagine the wailing on here if the SamCam story was not sourced to a Tory.
Fitaloon would have burst into flames by now
Marr doing a pretty fair job on non doms with HH.
161 MODERATORS - Libel Alert
harman talking bollox on marr
Hattie on Marr - getting it wrong ‘Ashcroft promised he’d be domiciled’…..oh dear, I can hear the writ being drafted now….Hattie floundering..’is Lord Paul a non-dom?’ I don’t know….duh….he’s said he is!
I’d say Marr didn’t pull any punches….
Car-crash Hatty being ripped to shreds by Marr (yes, Marr!) over Labour non-doms.
161 I see Kellner’s wife is continuing to ruffle feathers in Brussels; controversy surrounds her every move. And to think, Brown thought he’d pulled a fast one on the French and Germans by appointing her.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7050524.ece
more harman on tv, less lab votes!
what a scum
Just to point out, we have had a BPIX poll this year
Jan 30th 2010: BPIX/Mail on Sunday Con 39 Lab 30 Lib Dem 18
So the actual changes are:
CON 36% (-3)
LAB 34% (+4)
LD 18% (nc)
Get it right!
Harman telling terminological inexactitudes on BBC.
Drowning, she says peoples “tax affairs are their own business”
Exactly.
Marr actually doing a decent job on Labour funding. Cable very good, Fox very good, Harman drowning completely.
Yes credit where it is due Marr, ripped Harman’s ridiculous hypocrisy apart regarding non doms. The only question he missed was “Why was Ashcroft asked to make an assurance when the many labour non doms didn’t have to?”
I dare say next tory interviewee will be given a really hard time by Marr, in return.
Labour non-doms good, Tory non-doms bad…. Peoples tax affairs are personal, except Ashcroft…, said Herpes-son, has an Animal Farm ring to it don’t you think.
Herpes speaks clap, the PMQ’s balls up last Wednesday clearly wasn’t a flook
Any sign of Hague or Dave doing an interview yet?
Harman on Marr - oh dear god
apparantly Labour all for openess in non doms arrangements - unless they Labour non doms.
seems she doesn’t know about those because she hasn’t asked……
Doesn’t seem to think this, errm, slightly hypocritical.
172 Surprised, I think Fox came out of the funding issue best of the three, the Sage of Twickenham second, with Hattie a very distant, embarrassingly confused third….’We should have been told about Ashcroft…Labour non-dom’s Peers tax affairs are private’…..
175 - bet he does one before Brown goes on newsnight.
Brown left the country yesterday to avoid questions on chilcot in case you forgot botty boy.
160
I’m not a TROLL, my views are known. Still I’m sure Mr Vaz’s origins were unknown to you, glad to be of help.
Can’t wait to show them this in the Molestranglers Arms.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256098/After-Tory-leader-reveals-list-ethnic-candidates-Camerons-Rainbow-1st-Eleven.html#ixzz0hTLOXfGf
They’ll love that, particularly as it features a local candidate.
‘So Nick your vast knowledge of the world of cabaret restaurants, how do you see that as advancing your political career’
Annette Brooke has got it made.
I note Harman on the sofa, signalling Labour plants in debates will break the rules. The line was “Can you stop the British public from expressing their feelings?”
149 - Edmund in Tokyo
By ’socialist’ I mean voters who consider themselves idealogical Labour supporters. The sort of voter who would always and only voted Labour. “I only vote Labour”.
So, I’m not sure that this sort of visceral, almost Tribal, Labour voter ['socialist' in my parlance] would have defected over Iraq. They might have stayed at home, but I’m not sure this class of voter went wholesale to the other main parties.
By contrast, in my doorstepping yesterday I met a number of voters who said they’d be voting Conservative this time, oh yes, but ‘I voted for Blair’. This is why I termed this ‘Labour-disloyal’ category the ‘Blair Conservatives’. And they are unwinding their position from 1997.
I haven’t addressed myself to the 2005 position, just the 1997 one.
Of course, since 1997 a lot of Thatcher-conservatives have died so the effect might be dampened but, that’s another point. I’ve just been trying to get inside the mind of YouGov and how they might be using the Labour-Loyal/Disloyal trick, and whether I can infer what they might be doing and whether what they might be doing is wrong.
My point is that, if YouGov are making the assumption that the Labour-Loyals [I'll call them the Blair Conservatives] are disproportionately likely to vote Labour, then YouGov’s assumptions aren’t being borne-out by conversation on the stump. Which, in turn, casts doubt on the results they’re publishing.
Because I didn’t meet a single ‘Blair Conservative’ yesterday who said they’d be voting for Labour this time. In fact, they seemed to be open to vote for anyone that would defeat them.
And this, in a key Labour-held marginal that the Tories must win if they’re to form a Government.
175 tim, they sent out Harman. She’s digging her own holes for Labour this morning.
blinky balls due soon on boulton
should be a giggle
dear god tim. 5!! you started at 5am on a Sunday!!!
Looooooooooooooooooooooooooool
who says people in the public sector dont work long hours
181… sorry. 6th paragraph should be
“My point is that, if YouGov are making the assumption that the Labour-DISloyals [I'll call them the Blair Conservatives] are…
This is going to be fun: Nick Griffin refuses to go on TV
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/davehillblog/2010/mar/07/nick-griffin-bbc-london-dominic-carman-barking-constituency
Seems like some very interesting new stuff might be about to come out about Mr Griffin…
Tory strategy now should be to smoke the LibDems out on the issue of pacts in a hung parliament. Vote Clegg get Brown. Wavering floating voters particularly in the SouthWest might not think they tories have all the answers, but they know the solutions offered by Brown have proved catastrophic.
So Mr Clegg, are the any circumstances in which Labour loses their overall majority that you would continue to prop up a Brown premiership?
49. Stuart, I have always thought the ineptitude of the Scottish media and their incestuous relationship with Labour was a very good argument against independence (!). I still remember the floundering around with McLeish for weeks until a 10 minute interview with Newsnight London brought the temple crashing down. Purcell is another example of the media holding back on short term sensation for a long term drip of stories etc. I suspect that there is a lot more to this story than 1 councillor who may have a bit of a drug problem. Remember, however, you live in a country which has taken more than 3 years to bring the Sheridans to trial after a video was put on the NOTW website!
And most British curry cooks are Bangladeshi in origin rather than Indian. As there are high levels of unemployment amongst British Bengalis I would spot a good solution.
It is striking how many non doms of Indian origin fund the Brown government. One has to wonder why.
Personally I have no problem with British citizens overseas funding British parties, after all they have the vote. Many plan to return, and repatriate substantial assets.
182 EdP - and for herself, she’s repeated, without the benefit of Parliamentary privilege, a ‘terminological inexactitude’ about Lord Ashcroft, who is not shy of litigation…..
181
By ’socialist’ I mean voters who consider themselves idealogical Labour supporters. The sort of voter who would always and only voted Labour. “I only vote Labour”.
The sort of people who believe as Herbert Morrisson said,
‘Socialsim? its what a Labour government does’
164 Jack W. Any news on the North.
181
‘Football Supporter’ style voters - ‘my team win-or-lose’ - ‘doesn’t matter if they play football that would disgrace the Agricultural Industry’ - ‘doesn’t matter what the prices are at the turnstiles’.
It isn’t about politics, it’s about identity, about beating the other team.
Idiots fighting in a burning house…
Tims favourite Grayling on Boulton, very good, put forward 3 good reasons to vote for the Tories:-
1) Punishment for Anti social behaviour first time.
2) On the side of people who defend their homes against burglars
3) bring down immigration to 90s levels.
I came across 2 true labour voters yesterday - they both said they would vote labour because they always had and were born to it - although they were hardly enthusiastic about their vote . Not other labour voters to be found but it is a con /lib dem marginal , No sign of any disloyal labour ex blair voters - seem to be all keen on voting to get Brown out - but many undecided about the impact of voting lib dem when they will not form a government
The Sky reporter yesterday said that Brown had put his money where his mouth was and provided money to replace snatch LRs.
This one sentence made me more annoyed at poor reporting than any for a while.
It is taxpayer money not Brown’s money. And no recognition that this is after eight years of war and only now is he providing funds to replace these mobile coffins. Yet he claimed to have provided funds for everything needed already.
And delivery for replacement: any guesses? Two years?
154. I think these Vaizey comments are a rather clumsy attempt to reinforce the ‘Cameron appeals to people who have voted Labour in the recent past’ theme.
bunnco: “My point is that, if YouGov are making the assumption that the Labour-Loyals [I'll call them the Blair Conservatives] are disproportionately likely to vote Labour, then YouGov’s assumptions aren’t being borne-out by conversation on the stump.”
I don’t think they’re making that assumption.
If I’ve got this right the loyal-disloyal thing is this:
Up until now they’ve weighted for party ID, with the aim of getting a proportion of Labour-identifiers, LibDem-identifiers and Conservative-identifiers that matches the voting population.
They’re still doing this, and still have the same proportion of Labour supporters as they did before.
However, they also found that Labour-identifiers who defected in 2005 were moving in a very different way to Labour-identifiers who didn’t. That would mean that even if their sample was representative of Labour-identifiers in the population overall, it might get unrepresentative results because they had too many of one sub-group or the other in the Labour-identifying sample. So they split their Labour-identifier sample into the two different sub-groups, based on what they did in 2005, and make sure they have a representative number of each sub-group, not just a representative number of the overall Labour-identifying group.
It’s unfortunate that they chose the terms “Labour-loyal” and Labour-disloyal” to describe these sub-groups, because it’s giving people all kinds of funny ideas about what they’re doing…
192. Good morning Punter.
Specially for you …. and my own positions I rang a few contacts whom I trust on “Up North” issues.
Frankly there wasn’t a deal of change from the previous position save for a hardening of the Labour vote. Not too much of a shock there given the polls. The Tories are struggling in the second tier Northern marginals - again not new news.
The Lib Dems are expecting gains from Labour - they’re talking of Burnley as a given. Also no losses to the Tories in the region.
I think it’s pretty much as we’ve discussed before. Sorry not to provide any juicy gossip - this time !!
194 -
1. Define anti social.
2. Who isn’t.
3. So we’re leaving Europe then?
Apparently this photo in the Sunday Express is headlined ‘Any Last Requests, Prime Minister?’:
http://express.co.uk/galleries/view/1100/19834
On topic, when polls’ results vary, I apply the Golden Rule. And there’s no safety in numbers for the RLOSs.
201 Judging by the size of his gut in those Afghan photo’s, Brown needs to increase the mileage of his daily runs. Or give up all those fattening bananas.
bunnco @185: “the assumption that the Labour-DISloyals”
They’re not doing that either. They’re just trying to weight their sample so they survey a number of Labour-disloyals that matches the voting population. (No idea whether they’re doing this successfully or not.)
If they’re getting high Labour scores for those people, it’s because those people they’re telling them that they’re going to vote Labour.
199 Thanks. The Times was talking of Bradford East and Hull North for the Lib Dems. Does that sound right. On Tory/LD fights I had wondered if Harrogate could be worth half a crown but it sounds not.
Very assured performance by Grant Shapps on Boulton. Grayling was adequate too. I definitely sense that broadly, the Tories are “firing” again even though that hasn’t quite filtered through to the media or necessarily, the polls.
Labour aren’t making as many mistakes as they used to either, though Gordon’s cynical PR trip to Afghanistan might put an end to that.
We’re in for a really interesting election campaign.
“1. Define anti social.”
Welching.
204 How will the upper house election be in Japan. Are the voters minded to trust the DPJ now.
203 EdP
He really is getting quite fat, isn’t he? I wonder if they will have podiums at the debates?
If not, it could be pretty embarassing for him.
For those unfamiliar with Stratford on Avon PPC Nadhim Zahawi, I recommend reading about his priorities as a PPC:
http://www.zahawi.com/node/7
Closet Labour he ain’t, for sure.
201. ‘Due to your smoking ban Mr Brown, the traditional last cigarette cannot be given to you.’
200 I will tell you what Tim you give me 3 reasons to vote labour and I will answer your question.
209. It’s a classic side effect, isn’t it?
look at the mess in Balls office on Sky
205 Punter. Hull yes, Bradford more iffy.
tim, did you know that Ed Balls has stolen everyone of your lines?
Blinky is breaking his blinking record.
213 voreas, he’ll have plenty of time to tidy it up when he loses his seat.
Morning all and as I predicted last night, SKY is portraying last night’s YouGov as an improvement for the Tories with a narrative that 2 polls are showing a growing Tories lead.
Balls now on SKY talking crap. Harriet Harman was torn to shreds by Andrew Marr. I subscribe to the view expressed by some that the media is now starting to change its narrative back to maybe the Tories are going to win and its time to put the heat on Labour.
Harman trying to differentiate between Lord Ashcroft being hounded over his tax status and Labour donors who refuse to disclose their tax status was just risible. IT all basically comes down to the promise Lord Ashcroft may or may not have made to get his peerage and that he is Tory Deputy Chairman.
Labour is not going to be able to hide from this one and Liam Fox, much derided on this site clearly struck home with Andrew Marr when he asked him why he hadn’t asked Vince Cable about the Michael Brown money. Level playing fields will not be comfortable for Labour or the LibDems.
Balls refusing to confirm if there will be a budget!
Serious question, why does Balls blink so much? His blink rate is much higher than normal - and got even more now he’s been asked if there will be a budget.
214 Thanks. Any news on Newcastle, Sheffield and Manchester. Specifically Sheffield Central, Manchester Gorton and Newcastle North. It does sound as if the possibility the Lib Dems could make a net gain of seats cannot be ruled out overall if Hull North and Burnley could be taken and other seats like Swansea West look like following. There would have to be major losses to the Tories in the south to put them into negative territory in the overall results if those sorts of seats were taken.
Frightning to think that in just over a month Balls and Brown may well be running the UK’s finances! :O
Re YouGov. Because their panel is limited by the numbers who are registered, have they done any assessment of how being polled repeatedly day after day could affect responses? How often are individuals being polled at the moment? And is there any evidence of certain groups suffering from “fatigue” and only bothering to respond if they want to change their mind. Can they track what percentage of people responding have changed their mind from the last time they were polled, and is it consistent with what they used to find in their monthly polls?
Blinky losing it with Boulton.
219 People blink when they lie.
For anybody wanting to know how Labour politics in Glasgow work..interesting reading
http://aangirfan.blogspot.com/
I hate Ed Balls with a passion but he gave a decent performance on Boulton.
What would happen, theoretically, if Labour produced a budget, which was then rejected by the Commons? Would tax collecting become illegal, or is there a mechanism to enable the existing arrangements to continue?
224 Surely no-one tells that many lies?
228 Ed is in class of his own.
220 Punter. I’ve nothing new on any of those.
Presently I’m working on an overall GB net gain for the Lib Dems of between 5-10 seats. Diminishing losses to the Tories overtaken by gains from Labour.
I’m around 15 ahead of the market.
Oh dear, hopeless Harriet was torn to shreds by Marr. Absolutely shredded. Coming on the back of a dreadful PMQ’s I wonder if this is a plan by Mandy to make sure she is sidelined for the election campaign.
Fox and Cable did fine in comparison.
It is becoming clear that the LD strategy will be to criticise the Conservatives at every opportunity whilst backing away from doing the same to Labour. Senior LD spokesmen have this week sought to keep the Ashcroft affair going, i.e. Vince Cable at PMQ’s and Charles Kennedy on Marr this morning. Subtle other snipes at the Tories came from Cable on their financial plans and yesterday the LD spokesman criticised the Tories over their comments over Brown going to Afghanistan.
I suspect that this narrative will continue to the election and will have a profound effect on the result. I doubt the LD’s will be as blatant as withdrawing candidates from Lab/Con marginals but I am sure it will involve a more subtle approach at the micro level of moving votes . The strategy was more or less spelled out in the disgraceful interview given by Hain last week on Marr.
Cable was evasive on Marr this morning when asked whether LD’s would seek to form a coalition , ‘as it was not important’. I cannot see a more important issue in this election.
If it is proven correct that the LD’s have decided their election strategy with a Lab/LD coalition as an end result and are not up front before the election then it will be the end for them. The electorate will never forgive them , as what it basically means is ‘Vote LD, get Brown’. And Labour for ever.
Clegg has stated that he will support the party with the biggest mandate. In the event of a hung parliament then they have a massive problem post election. If Labour have more seats than the Conservatives but less votes then who has the greatest mandate ? Marr tried to pin Cable down this morning but Cable evaded.
The narrative will be played out big time at the leaders debates, Labour and LD’s both trashing the Tories.
And what do the LD’s get out of this ? A promise of electoral reform which the LD’s see as a promise good for them. We all know that promise will be subtedly changed and electoral reform will only happen if it helps Labour and smashes the Tories.The LD’s will then be told they are no longer required.
This election is probably the most important ever, I say that not lightly. If Brown returns as PM then he will destroy any chances of the Tories ever returning to power by electoral reform. We will become a one party state.
The LD’s need to take a long hard look at Labour. It might be good in the short term for the incumbant LD leaders, but for a few years in the spotlight they may have destroyed this country for all time.
Punter @208: “How will the upper house election be in Japan. Are the voters minded to trust the DPJ now.”
The general consensus is that both the main parties are sleazy and crap. (See also pretty much every other developed country in the world right now…)
There have been a bunch of manifesto pledges broken already where the DPJ over-promised, not to mention the arrest of Ozawa’s secretary and Ozawa being questioned for breaking political funding rules. (A lot of people feel like they politicians are all breaking the rules and the civil servants in charge of the police are just going after Ozawa now because Ozawa is going after the civil servants’ privileges, but that doesn’t stop this stuff doing damage.)
I can’t see the DPJ getting the majority they’re aiming for. I suspect we’ll see a resurgence of some of the smaller parties, with the result that the coalition will still have a majority, but the DPJ won’t on its own. Apparently Ozawa’s been in talks with Komeito, the political wing of a money-grubbing pseudo-Buddhist religious cult called Soka Gakkai, who are currently aligned with the LDP. I’d guess that in the event that the coalition do lose their majority, Ozawa can buy Komeito off with tax breaks for money-grubbing psuedo-Buddhist religious cults.
BTW, I haven’t been following this stuff very closely, so don’t bet any money on my hunches…
On topic, I don’t bet on any single poll or pollsters. I follow my nose. ICM reflected more what I was expecting than YouGov (and certainly BPIX), but I’m automatically suspicious of following my preconceptions. My current area of focus is Wales, where the seat markets are particularly interesting.
Ah… I wasn’t actually watching, just listening. Seems Mr Balls’ body language might not have been particularly edifying.
Was he the inspiration for Blinky Ben from The Thick of It?
227. No - but none of the changes outlined would take effect…the previous finance act would remain the one in force
215 - inluding the one about Darling beating him to the leadership?
Now where are William and Dave?
227 - Well wouldn’t that result in an immediate dissolution anyway, so an emergency Money bill couldn’t be passed?
236 - I think he is referring to the ability of the government to collect income taxes, it needs to be renewed annually.
Catching up on the thread, very surprised to hear the Marr-Hatemen statements. Will have to utilise ye olde iPlayer to see this for myself. She should’ve been interviewed in a mosque by Mehdi Hassan.
197, I agree, but the way Vaizey did it was moronic. I doubt it’ll make any impact, but he needs a slap. With an enormo-haddock.
219, not sure, but lots of people blink a lot when being filmed. Plus, Balls’ speech problem probably makes him a nervous speaker, so blinking may be a physical embodiment of his anxiety.
221, never fear, Morris Dancer shall use his vote-casting power in the fight against Balls!
234 What is attracting your interest.
Too much inter breeding in this family IMO
241 - The dynamism of a four way contest is always interesting and the possible recent swing back to Labour. I’ll try to put together a pb2 article on the subject.
201
Same photo in the Times with the caption “would you like a blindfold?”
alex @222: “How often are individuals being polled [by YouGov] at the moment?”
Their website says they have something like 250,000 people in their panel, so if it was demographically representative they could do 250 1000-person polls without polling the same person twice.
Presumably you have to cut that down a bit as not everyone will respond, and they’ll be lighter in some demographics, so those people will get polled more often. But they’d still be fine, I’d have thought…
Don’t know about AR though. Anyone know how big their panel is?
237 tim, Hague is probably chained up in your cellar. No idea about Cameron; he’s likely to be enjoying the car crash spectacle of Harman on TV this morning, wherever he may be.
243 I wondered if there were specific seats you see value in presently.
247 - Yes, but I’ll reveal all once I’ve finished my thinking (and placed my bets).
233 Is Aso still around or has he taken up his true vocation as a manga novelist by now in Japan.
From the man who brought you, ‘Bully Brown’ an interesting piece.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/07/andrew-rawnsley-david-cameron
New book out Plato and other climate change sceptics might like:
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/fiction/article7052625.ece
114 - **pukes** at Alex Salmond’s rhetoric
If the Lib Dems take Hull North and Bradford East, Labour are collapsing.
237 - why, are you missing them ?
No ultimatum, no bombs, no bullets, and no tanks up Downing Street.
Blink, and you might have missed it.
But yesterday, in a quite astonishing move, former heads of Her Majesty’s Armed Forces fired directly at the Prime Minister not only both barrels of truth, but enough military ordnance of reason to sink the Labour’s election ship completely and put the Prime Minister out of office permanently.
The intervention of senior members of the Military at such a crucial time in the election cycle represents a quite unprecedented politico-military coup.
…
In a dig at David Cameron, Gordon Brown once boasted that he would never use his children as ‘political props’. Today he stands accused by former prime minister John Major of a ‘cynically-timed political stunt’ and of ‘profoundly unbecoming conduct for a prime minister’. The Prime Minister’s hastily-arranged visit to Afghanistan has been criticised not only by Opposition front benchers and leaders of Her Majesty’s Armed Forces, but even members of his own party at LabourHome said it was ‘the most cynical stunt ever pulled by an “elected” politician’.
…
Gordon Brown not only has blood on his hands: he is a liar.
If it takes a ‘Glorious Military Coup’ to remove an unrighteous, corrupt, autocratic, bullying, deceitful and manipulative liar from office, perhaps it is the lesser evil.
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2010/03/has-gordon-browns-premiership-just-been.html
Harriet Harman MP, Leader of the House of Commons
Andrew Marr Show, BBC One
Ms Harman said there was a big difference between the controversy surrounding the tax status of Lord Ashcroft and the alleged non-dom status of Labour peers such as Lord Paul and Lord Cohen.
“I think the issue in relation to Lord Ashcroft and what makes it very different is that he got his peerage on the basis of an assurance”, she said.
She refuted suggestions that the tax status of Labour peers should be disclosed, saying of Lord Paul: “his tax status is an issue for him.”
When questioned about Cohen, she added: “The tax status of donors is not an issue for electoral law … people’s tax affairs are a private matter.”
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6312/harman_tax_status_of_labour_peers_very_different_from_ashcroft.html
Reality check: Fixing the UK’s tax system
A fresh, but controversial approach by REFORM.
A summary or the whole report is downloadable. Contains some useful historical and projected graphs and tables. Includes the LibDems and Tory proposals as well.
http://www.reform.co.uk/Research/ResearchArticles/tabid/82/smid/378/ArticleID/1133/reftab/161/Default.aspx
255. You mean someone has finally asked the obvious question: why was Lord Ashcroft required to give a residency undertaking when Lord Paul was not?
250 Rawnsley gets it wrong though.
“He dealt with Ashcroft by sacrificing principle to furtive expediency”
Not at all. The correct principle is that there is no reason whatsoever why non-doms shouldn’t contribute to political parties, and indeed hold office in them and engage in politics in general.
The expediency is that the Tories are paying lip service to the notion that there is somehow something wrong with non-doms, banning them from sitting in Parliament, etc.
Nick Clegg on Sky. Vote Yellow, Get Brown.
“The Tories are using the markets to threaten voters”
“Gordo’s trip was right and proper”
Some of the Bahrain GP markets are up on Betfair. A reminder for those who play the Fastest Lap market that the fastest laps must occur at or near the race end, as cars start with 240kg or so of fuel and don’t refuel anymore.
No safety car, number of classified finishers or Q3 markets yet.
259, aww, how cute. Ikkle Cleggy is copying Cable’s PMQs lapdog impersonation, hoping for some biscuits and a pat on the head.
259. …cont
VYGB.
“Lord Ashcroft is a major scandal”
“Jack Straw’s handling of the Venables affair has been brilliant”
The YouGov panel is an interesting issue. BPIX use YouGov and they claim 5k respondents, so did YouGov for their marginal polls I think - or was the raw data the same - and YouGov are committed to five polls a week until, possibly, June.
That is stretching even 300k as a panel as there are bound to be some dormant accounts, refusals to answer. And already they can’t find enough Labour identifiers. What will it be like in another two months?
I really think they have bitten off more than they can chew.
Kellner is doing his shareholders no favours showing he is one of the worse - or it biased - analysts of polls around and touting his own polls push polling questions on Ashcroft with no health warning is very silly.
As he is working for the Tories now is his problem he thinks he must provide ‘balance’? If so it would be a poor professional judgment. Neutral disinterest is what is needed.
255 The difference between Lords Paul and Ashcroft is that Ashcroft merely holds offices in the Conservative Party, Lord Paul is (or has been) a Deputy Speaker of the Lords and a Privy Consellor - so holds offices in Parliament and the State.
255 - If Ashcroft’s supposed “assurance” formed the basis of his elevation to the peerage, does that mean that a price was being set on the title, and that he was effectively buying it?
Actually quite an interesting exchange between Clegg and Boulton about Ashcroft (if only he had pursued it)
Clegg. “People who don’t play by the rules should not make the rules”
I wonder which rules he is suggesting Ashcroft does not play by?
Boulton. “What about your donor that went to prison?”
Clegg. “We were cleared by the Electoral Commission”
Hmmm. Ashcroft was cleared by the EC. Are those the rules Clegg wants to play by, in which case Ashcroft if fine?
257. Because Lord Paul had been resident in London for 30 years - hence no concerns about whether he could attend the HoL. Ashcroft, by contrast, had been resident abroad, hence request that he commit to becoming resident in the UK, so he could attend HoL. He gave the commitment and met it. The HoL Scrutiny Ctte did NOT get into tax questions about ‘domicile’ with either of them. But Hague’s letter to Blair led people to infer that Ashcroft would become domiciled. Its a Hague cock up from start to finish.
Nick Clegg MP, Leader of the Liberal Democrat…
Adam Boulton live, Sky News
Mr Clegg accused the Conservatives of a “glorified form of blackmail” over claims that a hung parliament would be damaging to the economy.
He said the Conservatives were effectively saying: “Vote for us otherwise the markets will tear the economic stability of this country to bits.”
267. CarlottaVance: But Hague’s letter to Blair led people to infer that Ashcroft would become domiciled.
That would be a cock up by those who inferred something that was neither stated nor implied.
262 On Jon Venables - I don’t understand why we can’t be told what he is alleged to have done. Normally when someone is charged with a crime it is public knowledge. I don’t see why that can’t be the same in this case. Justice in England takes place in a public tribunal, not in secret. And if he has broken his licence terms and been returned to jail, then we, the public, need to know so that we can pass judgment on those who made those decisions or who made the law that way (as I realise we can’t directly pass judgment on judges, but we can elect governments to change the law).
He said the Conservatives were effectively saying: “Vote for us otherwise the markets will tear the economic stability of this country to bits.”
Well, it’s the markets that are saying that…
Punter @249: Aso’s still in politics. To add insult to injury, the new government cut the budget for the 32-million-dollar manga museum he wanted to build.
270. John Lilburne: I don’t understand why we can’t be told what he is alleged to have done.
The argument is that if it becomes widely known, it will be impossible for him to have a fair trial.
267, to infer?
The Labour Party broke explicit manifesto promises regarding income tax, an EU referendum and tuition fees. And you’re upset and self-righteous because a Tory peer and donor didn’t do what you inferred an agreement he (but no Labour peer) made?
Is Harman right that Cohen’s tax affairs are his own business?
Can all PB’ers check their gaages for a scared, bald Yorkshiremen going by the name of William.
He’s much valued by the Tory family.
267 If ashcroft had been resident for 30 years then he would have been fine is what you are saying. He has been resident and available for the lords for the past decade so he has met his requirements.
The only logical reason the Lib dems and Labour are chasing this is for part political advantage, the public can see it a mile off and frankly think it is pathetic.
To my thinking, if the Tories manage to lose this election it will mean the end of the conservatives as a leading political party. An end also to 200 years of history; what a disaster.
But is it such a disaster to the Right of British politics? I think not.
The Tory Party is not really a right wing party any more, instead it has become a party of the status quo, content to leave the welfare state in place, and adjust here and there in certain departments.
What sort of party can arise if the Tories fail?
It must be a party with a determined right wing philosophy, but also show that it can adapt to changing conditions on Earth. The constant search for continued growth must be changed and a new sort of society envisioned.
After all who wants a Briton with over 100 million inhabitants, with no room to move. Or a world with 10 billion people.
The socialist way is sucking all of us dry: Time fore a revolutionary change this time from the Right.
269 Easy to prove or disprove.
Has Ashcroft paid ‘tens of millions of pounds’ in UK tax, as Hague stated he would?
If so, everything fine, Ashcroft has met the commitment Hague made to the Prime Minister on his behalf (which was not a commitment required of Ashcroft by the HoL Scrutiny Ctte).
If not…..step forward William….wonder if an FOI request is in the offing….
277. Carlotta Vance: wonder if an FOI request is in the offing….
I do hope so. Lefties just can’t help themselves, so just take another swig!
268 Scott - Nice of Nick Clegg to do the Conservative’s campaigning for them. That is a very, very powerful message for Cameron and Osborne, but one which it is hard for them to use directly. You’d expect the LibDems to try to suppress it, not draw attention to it.
277 Has paul or cohen paid ten of millions of pounds in tax, If they weren’t asked to then why not? Looks like one rule for tory donors and another for labour donors.
You’d have though that someone who had been resident in the country for 44 years (30 years before becoming a peer, and 14 since) might have changed their domicile to their country of residence by now.
280, at least Labour are consistent. They want one rule for Tory donors, another for Labour donors, and one rule for donations, except from the unions to the Labour party.
All animals are equal etc.
Watching Nick Clegg on Boulton there was no pretence at being even-handed in his criticism of the 2 manin parties. He fired repeatedly at the tories, defended Brown’s trip to Afghanistan, and refused to rule out coalition, as to do so wouldn’t be grown up.
Harmanrefused to deny that talks with LibDems were underway. So all things considered today, Peter Obourne was bang on with his exclusive in the Daily Mail.
Voters beware, vote LibDem get Labour.
273. Morris Dancer - should we hold an incoming Conservative Govt to higher standards of probity than the morally and ethically bankrupt current administration? Or is ‘the same’ acceptable?
275. voreas - exactly, the HoL Scrutiny Ctte did not get into ‘domicile’ - only residence. And why does one have to be either Labour or Lib Dem to want the Tories to raise their game?
276 Except that Labour will fix the electoral system to its advantage, change the upper house to its advantage and change party funding to its advantage.
If the tories don’t get in this time we are stuck with Labour forever or until there is a revolution.
274 Gone missing tim? He was on Newsnight late last week and put Kirsty back in her hutch.
270. LS. Well, it’s the markets that are saying that…
Boulton did ask Clegg if he was suggesting that the Tories actively controlled the Forex markets…
Tee Hee!
279. Yes - another misjudgement by Clegg.
284 so he has proved he is available for the lords, end of story.
Unless there is a party political axe to grind.
Vote Yellow, Get Brown
The Liberal Democrat leader also backed Gordon Brown’s decision to visit troops in Afghanistan, and said he was amazed by the Conservative criticisms.
“It is right that the prime minister should go and visit our troops in Afghanistan,” he said.
“(It is) almost a constitutional duty for the leader of this country to show our collective sense of gratitude to our brave soldier on the front line.”
252 - They won’t. Especially as they are currently cosying up to Labour.
284, if the Tories out a Dr. Kelly type figure and drive him to suicide I would utterly condemn that. If they lie to the nation and Parliament to trick the country into embarking upon a needless war, I would condemn that. If they shockingly won a by-election by postal votes, and then the register went missing, I would be highly suspicious. If it transpired a close friend of the Prime Minister was concocting vicious lies about the wives of the Opposition I would be sickened.
For a Labour person to try and climb the moral high horse is frankly breathtaking. Your government and party are despicable, immoral and incompetent. The PLP is spineless and pathetic and the PM is a deluded, deranged idiot.
283. Yes - there’s a smokescreen story today about the Lib Dems ruling out propping up Brown as well, but what they are actually saying to Labour is we are happy to work with you if Brown goes.
So a cosmetic change at the top in return for the long hoped-for stitchup. The left-liberal establishment’s pet project remains on track.
280 voreas - Don’t know, but then (afaik) no one wrote to the PM saying they would ‘pay tens of millions of pounds in UK tax’ to help get them enobled - unlike Ashcroft, where Hague did say he would be paying ‘tens of millions of pounds’.
282 Morris Dancer - I know this is deeply ironic, but the case could be made that all Labour are asking is that ‘Ashcroft met the commitments made to get him enobled’.
It seems clear he DID meet the commitment to become resident.
It is far from clear that he has paid ‘tens of millions of pounds in UK Tax’ that Hague volunteered he would - and his non-dom status makes that less, rather than more likely.
276. As a former member of the SDP I can assure you that you are living in a fantasy land. The old, decrepit and unelectable Labour party did not do the decent thing and disappear. Instead the Tories were given relatively easy majorities for 18 years. The Tory party would not disappear but a split right wing vote meanst Labour would win more elections until the country collapsed in total ruin.
Vote Yellow, Get Brown
DennisMacShane
Lib-Dems tone is odd. N Clegg’s pitch to be PM in Sindie is unreadable. But we need Lib-Dem MPs to block Tories
vote lib dem get labour is going to cost the lib dems a lot of their London seats
even Ed Davey will be under threat with this stitch up with labour
296. The Lib Dems simply can’t help themselves, can they? OGH must be seething.
So Clegg is turning into Toenails?
294 “Round and round we go but oh don’t you know”
Why has lord paul not paid tens of millions of pounds or lord cohen?
Why was Ashcroft at first rejected and the singled out to become a domicile and yet labour are aloud to have as many non doms as they like.
Looks like one rule for labour another for the tories.
MTF - seriously, I’m worried about William.
Does he have history of meeting older men in fur on Facebook?
We need to access his phone messages, do you know anyone who can help?
269 - Well it has become well-known, it’s been published in the Sunday Mirror.
Well, fairly well known
Another interesting idea to tease the voters might be :
Vote Blue Get Osborne !!
Bloody Hell …. What A Prospect !!
274. Hague popped up and asked me what I thought of the whole Ashcroft affair. “William,” I said,”It was really nothing.”
299, not sure he’s *that* pro-Labour.
Here’s Toenails latest blog effort. Apparently Labour are totally awesome!!!11111
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/03/who_would_have.html
Tough gig for liberals to pretend they have not done a deal with labour in advance, saying they would not support Brown personally does not answer the question that they will not support the tories.
This will come out in the debates, and if Cameron said he has tried to have talks with liberals but they have refused and done a deal with labour to keep them in power then the whole of the sourth west of england will drop Clegg and the liberals as labour comes a poor second as a choice.
301
most amusing tim, but its yet another of your obsessions thats going nowhere. I am surprised you waste so much time on it.
301 tim “We need to access his phone messages, do you know anyone who can help?”
Why, are you worried that Blinky Ed Balls’s new best friend has been texting him? Scary if true.
308 - Ed Balls has a friend? No way!
DavidL @295: “The Tory party would not disappear but a split right wing vote meanst Labour would win more elections until the country collapsed in total ruin.”
Not necessarily. If the liberal left bring in PR, or even AV, Weathercock could have a party that represents him, and they’d govern some of the time in coalition with the moderate Tories. There’s no reason why a right-wing coalition shouldn’t beat the left in 2014/2015, especially if the Mike Smithson wing of what is currently the LibDems split off and joined them.
I suppose the lib dems have noted they are fishing in the same pool as labour and reason that they should be nice to labour/nasty to the tories and hope labour supporters will come to them. Of course what will happen as has been happening is that it will push up labours vote at the expense of the lib dems.
Vote yellow get brown has never had more traction after todays lib dem interviews.
301 tim, does your wife know that you’re looking for Willie on the internet? Try not to get caught out posing in a ‘Chris Bryant’ style.
300 Voreas - Did the leader of his party commit Lord Paul to pay ‘tens of millions in UK tax’ before his enoblement? Doubt it. The HoL was only interested in ‘residence’ - it was William and his ‘tens of millions of pounds in UK tax’ that created this pickle.
305. So Toenails didn’t call his piece “Who’da thunk it?”
He obviously doesn’t know the first thing about this interweb thingy.
311 voreas - That has been my point since the LibDem conference and even before that. They spend nearly all of their media effort on giving people reasons (or what they see as reasons, such as the Latvian homophobe and Ashcroft nonsense) not to vote Tory. Which is fine as far as it goes, but doesn’t give people any reason to vote LibDem rather than Labour. They are contributing to their own squeeze; it is a big strategic muddle.
272/302
Actually the authorities’ best strategy would have been to lay charges immediately, then all we would be told was that he had been charged with a kiddie p–n offence and normal reporting restrictions would have seen to the rest.
Alternatively, if he is not going to face trial but is simply going back to prison for breaking his licence, then sub judice rules should not apply and the press should be free to publish what they like.
malcolm g, 224, that is about a third of what will be coming out if the media was doing their job.
I made the comment to watch underbelly and then see if there is some relevance in other areas…….it is too close for comfort.
A key area of concern is McConnell and his business associates. Getting a case dropped against “friends” he knew was not unknown, just ask the former head of the local police…….as the media have but have done nothing about as yet.
(On Topic) YouGov is rubbish. The weightings, adjustments and re-combobulations are a load of piffle piled on an enigma wrapped up in an elephant.
———–
Gadfly It’s suddenly dawned on me. Our glorious leader does in fact look like a leader - of the USSR!
Have you only just noticed??? Perhaps Gerald Kaufman could double up as Erich Honecker, and John Prescott could be Ceausescu.
The Oncoming Storm I actually got to shake hands with John Major when he visited Newry in 1994!
I actually got to shake hands with Prince William, so ner-ner-ne-ner-ner. I’ve met someone who has met Kim Il Sung, and my mother was taught German by Paul Schmidt (Hitler’s interpreter).
Andy JS I don’t like the whole tone and atmosphere of the current situation regarding Jon Venables’ recall to custody. There’s a real problem here, because you cannot both have an open trial for his new alleged offence and at the same time hope to retain his anonymity, because every serious court case involving a person of his age and gender will be being watched like a hawk.
Jon Venables was born in August 1982. If “John Smith” (or whatever his new name is) was born in, say, November 1984, people would be less likely to make the connection. If he is tried for his new “alleged offence”, I expect it will be under a different name and identity and DoB from the one he has used since 2001. Having said that, I think it is unlikely that he will be tried at all - it would be too much hassle that it would be “not in the public interest” to prosecute; they would just keep him in prison for several more years anyway.
(somebody) “Why would it be embarrassing for Samantha Cameron to have voted Labour?”
If she had done, it wouldn’t be embarrassing. Changing one’s mind about which party to vote for is a good thing; it shows open-mindedness and the ability to adapt one’s views to circumstances. I have voted for nine political parties in my life.
269. John Lilburne On Jon Venables - I don’t understand why we can’t be told what he is alleged to have done. Normally when someone is charged with a crime it is public knowledge. I don’t see why that can’t be the same in this case.
If we knew what he is alleged to have done, the jurors in his trial would know that it was him. If they knew it was him, they wouldn’t be able to give him a fair trial and the whole thing would be prejudiced. If he is to be tried at all - which I doubt will happen anyway - it would have to be donewithout any clues that the man on trial is Jon Venables.
————————
(OT) A few weeks ago a few people mentioned a new scandal about the DUP which they reckoned was about to break. Are there any more details? Or was it a load of fluffy nothing?
(OT) It suddenly occurred to me last night that if anyone is not familiar with “Neighbours”, there is a danger that I might be misunderstood when I say that I’ve had sex with Jordan fifteen times in the last week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHyCMfOQI-A
It’s ridiculous and undemocratic that the tory machine has forced Samantha Cameron to reveal her voting intentions, ahead of the election.
I imagine the character assassination launched by idiot tories against Sally Bercow, for a similar ‘crime’, probably put paid to any idea that she might resist.
Thankfully, when it comes to the GE, she will be able to cast her vote in secret, without any influence from CCHQ.
315 Nabbers. Loony Irony Alert !!
319 - Where she will vote for her husband!
So in less than a week Purcell has had dinner with Gordon Brown, left the country and not made a statement. Par for the course in Glasgow. The press have almost all the info but the dead tree press do not want the SNP to gain from what they know. A tricky one, yet covering it up will perhaps bite them down the track.
Darling on the Politics Show. Putting on a reasonable show. Still a dead man walking in Gordo and Ed Balls eyes.
323. “Darling on the Politics Show. Putting on a reasonable show. “
He just said growth this year would be 1.5% to 2%. I thought his pre-budget report was based on growth on 3.5%?
broken sleazy tories on the slide.
UKPR Poll of Polls:
Lead reduced by another 7 seats.
Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 37
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Thanks Cameron.
315 - I’m worried about this strategy too. It will cost the Lib Dems several gains from Labour they should make, see a collapse of Lib Dems vote in some Labour seats and will still not stop the loss of seats to the Tories. It is a major strategic blunder, no doubt a deal has been done similar to 1997. Have we learnt nothing.
321. Rob D: “Where she will vote for her husband!”
How do you know?
313 I think you should carry on telling people that Tory non doms are not allowed but labour non doms are fine.
People will see the inherent unreasonabless of this, so go ahead.
Now the interesting bit:
Some members of Brown’s cabinet have secretly discussed whether he should be replaced after the election with a leader better able to cut a deal with the smaller parties. One member privately suggested that Alan Johnson, the affable home secretary, could become a caretaker leader.
We have discussed this before, with the conclusion being that whatever the result, Labour must rebuild itself and the best person to do this is David Miliband.
John Rentoul responded by saying this:
I yield to no one in my admiration of the Foreign Secretary, but I also yield to public opinion, which is as yet not wholly persuaded of his potential. And I think that Johnson is in a strong position to find common ground with the Liberal Democrats.
Short-term solutions, very much the Harold Wilson and Gordon Brown way of doing things, are one thing but the long-term future of the Labour party has to be considered in parallel.
A possible way though this dilemma would be for Johnson, as the nominated Prime Minister, to cut a deal with the LibDems, while at the same time Miliband becomes leader of the Labour party.
This may be a hypothetical matter for now, but it is worthy of consideration if the polls continue to indicate a hung parliament a real possibility.
http://howarddenton.blogspot.com/2010/03/hung-parliament-who-should-lead-labour.html
319
preposterous post with added delusion.
326. It’s surely all a price worth paying to keep the left in power, isn’t it?
To be fair, I suspect Clegg knows attacking the official opposition while cosying up to a deeply unpopular government thats been in power for 13 years is the wrong thing for the Lib-Dems to do. But with Lib-Dem members like Mark Senior and collegaues like Ming, Huhne and Cable I don’t think he has much choice in the matter. No doubt he’d hoping deep down that Cameron can pull off the election and save him the humiliation of actually having to keep Brown and Balls in power in the event of a Hung Parliament…
321 Unless as head of the family, David Cameron casts the votes on behalf of all those registered in his household, as is alleged to happen in some homes.
326 - I got home from holiday yesterday to a leaflet from that nice Mr Clegg warning me that a vote for the Conservatives might let Labour back in. If I wish to stop Labour forming part of the next Government, I would welcome his views on how he thinks I should vote.
I am finding it less and less likely that I will vote Lib Dem at the next election. Their duplicitousness over election material that I have received, hypocrisy over Lord Ashcroft and apparent willingness to shore up Labour are making them a hard party to give support to.
325 - Do you ever offer any thought or insight ? The blog does not make the statement you do. Some of the left wing commentators in this forum really do leave a lot to be desired. No intelligence, no thought, just the politics of the student common room.
324 - He would be a fool to stick to the PBR and would look like he is lying to the public. Brown would happily do that, but Darling always strikes me as having honour and integrity.
Is tim’s obsession with William Hague because he’s worried he’s going bald as well?
318 - I’m stunned it hasn’t broken tbh.
329. LOL! Labour are completely and utterly mad. If Brown gets a Hung Parliament theres no chance in a month of sundays that he’ll make way for another leader. Even if that means taking Labour into Opposition he’ll do it and he’ll attempt to stay on as leader of the opposition in the pretext that the minority Tory government could collapse at any moment.
324 His forecasts have been truly dreadful, he is a very poor chancellor. I believe he also did a bit of expectation management at the pbr, over estimating borrowing and underestimating income from bankers one off tax.
333 - To be fair, my other half has just shocked our local Lib Dem canvasser by saying she’ll vote whichever way I tell her
338 - It does give rise to a very interesting betting question. If Gordon Brown is removed as Prime Minister in a hung Parliament to satisfy the Lib Dems, will he automatically have to cease to be leader of the Labour party? I think not (and I can’t imagine him easily giving way if he doesn’t have to), but would welcome the views of those more knowledge of Labour party affairs.
340 David Roe. Two votes for UKIP then !!
Nice to see Hattie torn to shreds on Marr this morning, how she has got to where she is given her totally incompetent public performances never ceases to amaze me!
Am struggling to follow all the minutiae of this pre-election period if I’m bluntly honest. I can only imagine what the vast majority of voters must be making of it, utterly switched off from this facade when the country is facing its biggest economic crisis in years - staggering.
328 voreas - IF I was saying that, I’d agree with you, but I’m not.
Simple question for William Hague:
‘Has Lord Ashcroft paid tens of millions of UK Tax as you promised the PM in support of his enoblement?’
A simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ will do.
And if they had any sense they’d get the answer out now - rather than later.
344 - Would he not have, given that he still has to pay tax on UK earnings etc?
335 - am looking forward to the February and March borrowing numbers derailing the Labour campaign, when they come in at £20-30bn each month - if that doesn’t make a few voters wake up then I don’t know what will!
344 It is effectively what you are saying. If ashcroft has to reveal his taxes then so should paul, cohen, mittal etc.
A future fair for all nondom peers
Though I’ve had a shock in that I’ve just realised I am not actually in Brent Central and will be forced to vote Tory instead of Lib Dem.
So my internal quandary is over.
But I’ll still vote yellow in the locals.
331 - Not at all. It could set the gains the party has made in the last 13 years back decades. Back to the early seventies.
It will play very badly in those South West and Southern marginals we hold.
I also agree with 334 about the hypocrisy of the position of the Lib Dems on the Ashcroft and the Brown money. On the Boulton show Clegg complains about Ashcroft, when Brown is brought up he trots out the line about the donation being cleared by the electoral commission. So was Ashcroft. At least Ashcroft is not an absconded conman.
Worried by the developments today and what appears to have been going on.
Re Asshcroft, isn’t it interesting that he renegotiated his deal with the Cabinet Office? If so surely Labour ministers must have known about it but chose not to mention it.
Darling - He just said growth this year would be 1.5% to 2%.
This is the Alistair Darling whose GDP prediction was out by over 10% at the 2008 budget?
Maybe tim could have a look in his garage to see if it is there.
Together with the £500bn+ that Darling has also lost since 2008.
Meanwhile the BCC have just revised their estimate of GDP growth down again.
GIN @338: “If Brown gets a Hung Parliament theres no chance in a month of sundays that he’ll make way for another leader.”
I’m not convinced of that. But even if he doesn’t, he could potentially be forced to make way, if not for another leader, for another Prime Minister. (And it’s much easier to shift a Labour leader once he ceases to be Prime Minister.)
Interesting to see some Labour and LibDem MPs at the Electoral Outcomes Committee probing for what the constitutional position would be in the event that:
1) The PM couldn’t command a majority
2) Someone else in his party could
3) The PM wasn’t being cooperative…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00r92p7
(HT RodCrosby)
239
The low growth exiting the recession must have come as a nasty shock to Darling and Brown, especially after QE. The revision downwards to GDP (albeit slight) must have also have given cause for a few underwear changes, despite the media in general not mentioning it (exception DT)
The economy is going where it wants, like an articulated on ice. I don’t think anything Brown or Darling can do will have much effect.
The economy is going where it wants, like an articulated on ice. I don’t think anything Brown or Darling can do will have much effect.
by bono publico March 7th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
I’m sure the Ice Road Truckers wouldn’t agree with you
Vote Yellow, Get Brown
Jacqui Smith on the midlands Politics Show, being supported by her local Lib Dem councillor…
344. CarlottaVance. ‘Has Lord Ashcroft paid tens of millions of UK Tax as you promised the PM in support of his enoblement?’
There was no time limit specified, so presumably future tax payments will count, too.
345 Rob D - its possible - we don’t know, because we don’t know how much of his wealth is in the UK, how much off-shore.
If he had been domiciled here, then he almost certainly would have paid ‘tens of millions’ - but as he was non-dom its possible his tax payments have not even been in the tens of thousands, let alone tens of millions.
Given the Leader of the Opposition pledged to the Prime Minister that he would pay ‘tens of millions’, and the Conservatives are all for transparency, its something that could be cleared up very simply.
While people are of course entitled to confidentiality, the continued obfuscation and dissembling on the issue may, not un-naturally, lead people to assume the worst.
347. voreas No its not. If anyone made commitments about how much tax Paul et al would be paying in the UK when enobled then it would be fair comment. But they didn’t (as far as anyone knows).
Thread: “…I’m following recent PB practice where there’s not been a similar poll for a couple of months and showing comparisons with the 2005 result.”
More desperate spinning from OGH. The last BPIX poll was only 5 weeks ago.
He just doesn’t want to draw attention to swingback.
I wonder why….
Martin Kinsella
I think an underlying delusion that is widespread among LibDems is that people who voted for them previously are LibDem supporters and not just tactical voters.
I think this is especially true where their voters are former/natural Conservatives.
To make gains from Labour they need to hold onto these former/natural Conservatives and add more during an election when the national swing is to the Conservatives.
The LibDems are making it very hard for themselves.
The idea that Sam Cameron would vote for a man whose buddies were setting up vile smears about her, her husband and her sick child, this time last year, and only seemingly stopped because that child died, is ludicrous.
Let us not forget what these Labour people, who we are told were close friends of both Gordon and Sarah, were going to unleash on her.
What will kill the LD’s eventually is the duplicitous manner in which they are playing their hand. If it becomes clear that the electorate were fooled pre-election by LD’s and their ‘behind closed doors’ strategy of keeping Labour in power, then they will be finished. And blamed for creating a One Party State ..
And a warning to Clegg. What you think you are getting in the way of electoral reform , was not actually what was meant.
Vote LD get Brown.
335. shades of David Steels’s support for the honourable Mr Brown.
Mr Stphen Williams informs his electorate in Bristol West that a vote for the Tories lets Labour in…
“Jacqui Smith on the midlands Politics Show, being supported by her local Lib Dem councillor”
That wont do Smith any good and it wont do LibDem chances in Solihull, Hall Green, Hereford and Worcestershire West any good either.
LibDems happily cutting their own throats in an attempt to save Labour.
203 - The problem with the labour disloyals is the large chance of them ‘misremembering’ their vote in 2005.
They didn’t want to vote labour after Iraq.
They thought they hadn’t.
They actually did (as shown by the sucessful last minute labour attack on lib dems).
Essentially yougov are going to get people saying they were disloyal when they were anything but, it’s a poorly assumed category and twisting their results out of shape.
352. But Brown making way for someone else relies on the fact that he’d do the right thing for the country and for Labour. Where is the evidence of that?
Basically cowardly lefties are hoping the Lib-Dems will get rid of Brown for them - Its not going to happen.
SallyC correction:
“Let us not forget what these Labour people, who we are told ARE close friends of both Gordon and Sarah, were going to unleash on her.”
363. another richard: LibDems happily cutting their own throats in an attempt to save Labour.
Not “to save Labour”, as such (although that’s the effect), but “to stop the Tories.
Remember the Senior motto: better 30 Lib Dem MPs and the Tories out of power than 80 Lib Dem MPs and the Tories with a majority.
ukpaul
Good point but I would extend it:
They didn’t want to vote labour after Iraq.
They thought they hadn’t.
They actually did (as shown by the sucessful last minute labour attack on lib dems).
They became embarrassed again with the incompetance and sleeze since 2005.
They became convinced they had voted LibDem in 2005.
357 Ok enough is enough, Hattie harman tried to make your argument on Marr and just looked ridiculous, so carry on if you wish.
357 History Boy ‘This decision will cost him (and benefit the Treasury)tens of millions a year’.
Interestingly none of the correspondence mentions ‘domicile’:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/02/ashcroft-tax-correspondence
But does mention ‘permanent residence’ - which potentially conflicts with non-dom - hence the fudge (agreed by all) to ‘long term’ residence.
So, Ashcroft has met his commitment on residence - but has he paid ‘tens of millions of tax per year’? It will come out sooner or later….better sooner.
364. ukpaul: it’s a poorly assumed category and twisting their results out of shape.
And it has the effect of putting an artificial floor on the Labour share - and means that when more Labour identifiers respond their share goes down, and vice versa!
“Mr Stphen Williams informs his electorate in Bristol West that a vote for the Tories lets Labour in”
He could be right but any suggestion that the LibDems would maintain Brown as PM just drives away the votes he needs.
370. CarlottaVance.
How much tax did you pay last year?
369 - Show me the letter promising Lord Paul would pay ‘tens of millions of tax per year’? No? Thought not. William’s fault.
For the love of god, can somebody please write an article about Aschroft for PB2. That way the obsessives can continue wittering on about it and “shape the narrative” to their hearts content and the normal people can carry on over here.
NOBODY apart from a few obsessives cares. It is tedious, repetitive dancing on the head of a pin semantics. Ashcroft did this, Paul did that. All the arguments have been aired please, give it a rest.
361 - If Clegg says ‘we will not join a coalition with labour’ then I will be happy voting for them. If he doesn’t say that then my conscience means that I can’t do so. I don’t want to, in any way, feel as though I’ve contributed to the economic disaster that awaits us with another labour government.
373. LondonStatto: “CarlottaVance. How much tax did you pay last year?”
Did CarlottaVance gain a peerage on the understanding that he would pay 10s of millions of pounds in extra tax.
If so, your question is a fair one.
373 LondonStatto - no one promised I’d pay ‘tens of millions a year’ to support my enoblement - so questions about my tax bill no more relevant than question about yours. Or Lord Pauls….
Hey Sal it was Ed Vaizey’s - park your Sarah Brown hatred for the day
Interesting debate on the Politics Show between female candidates about womens’ issues in politics.
What about AWS?
Tory. “I made it through selection without AWS. May the best candidate win”
Labour. “We need state intervention”
378 - Did he say he would pay tens of millions a year? That seems quite a lot!
GIN @365: “But Brown making way for someone else relies on the fact that he’d do the right thing for the country and for Labour.”
That’s the claim I’m disputing. I’m saying that he could be de-Prime-Minister’ed against his will.
In an extreme case, Brown would go as far as a Queen’s Speech and the LibDems would vote it down.
What happens next gets a bit tricky. It might be that the LibDems, plus Labour minus Brown, would be able to make it known that they agreed on another candidate, get that message to the Queen, and she’d send for that person and ask them to try to form a government instead. (They may or may not have to give Cameron a chance to try and fail to form a government in between.)
Of course, I don’t think it would come to this; I think Brown would cooperate once he knew the game was up. But my point is that even if Brown was the obstinate self-centred git of the pb.com stereotype, it would be possible to shift him if the LibDems were willing to stand firm.
NEW THREAD
So the Icelandic people have voted against giving £2bn+ to the UK.
More incompetance from Darling and Brown.
310. I was assuming the retention of a first past the post system which Labour would instinctively favour anyway and would certainly enjoy if the right was split. Their promises to the LibDems now are worth as much as they were in 1997.
As it is Cameron’s centreism is going to hurt the Lib Dems badly and the more they suck up to Labour the more it is going to hurt. I think Weathercock was thinking of something like the Tea Party movement in America. I think my SDP experience demonstrated just how hard it is to overcome institutional inertia in the UK.
359 - Good points, well made and I do agree with them all.
Lib dem members see themselves as left of centre, at least according to polls I have seen of the membership. However the membership is not representative of the voters. Rather like Tory members are more right wing than their vote and labour members more to the left.
For the party to simply side with Labour either tacitly or, as appears to be the case, more openly is little short of a massive tactical error.
We Lib Dems cannot have it both ways. In 1997 we gained alot of tactical voters in some seats but we also gained alot of former disillusioned Tory voters which allowed us to hoover up dozens of Tory seats.
At the last election we lost seats back to the Tories for the first time I can remember (outside of by-election gains). That should have sent out warning signals. We need to campaign hard against Labour and the Tories and strike out our own message.
In a place like Redditch we will be running a paper candidate and the resource will go into Worcestershire West and other seats in the area we can win. That is rignt. However to win Worcestershire West and to hold onto seats like Solihull we cannot just be there posing as Labour-lite. We will get our come-uppance.
377/378.
A pair of lefties unsurprisingly spectacularly miss the point.
Here is another scenario. What if Brown has already agreed with the LD’s that he will voluntarily step down after the election, to do a greater good ?
Brown mentioned several times during the Iraq inquiry and in several previous speeches the ‘New World Order’. This is such a strange concept that I am confused as to what exactly is the ‘New World Order’? and what is his part in it, now and in the future ?
An explanation is surely needed.
The mantra could be changed then. Vote LD get Brown (for a while).
“Listen to Sayeeda Warsi, if you don’t agree with her, vote for someone else”
should be all the other Tories’ only line on immigration. Otherwise they’ll be called racists. I’m astonished by the number of people I meet who believe that about the Tory party already. It really isn’t worth giving Labour such an easy open goal.
Warsi should be allowed to say exactly whatever it is that she believes and as often and as publicly as possible; I think she’s brilliant and is probably at her best when she’s allowed to say what she wants.
They should run a poster campaign with her face and the caption “racist? stupid? or RIGHT? vote right. Vote Conservative”
Todays Lunchtime Canvassing (Key Tory-need-2-win Marginal)
Band A - white working class terraced.
Not many in on a nice day. All Labour. No switchers. Looking like 2005. Have to along with BPIX 2 point lead however Cameron (as a brand) is weakening fast. Something needs to happen to stop the drift.
All anti Labour were anti labour in 2005 but a lot more ‘noisy’ about it. However its still one cross each.
296 “we need Lib-Dem MP’s to block Tories” Is that it? Is that the only purpose they have? Why don’t the Lib-Dems simply merge with Labour and simplify the whole political process?
We then don’t need to fiddle the voting system to keep out the Tories.Voters would have a simple choice of centre-left or centre-right parties and first past the post would be fair and democratic. The nonsense of tactical voting would be binned overnight.
There are far too many polls, we need a break from them all for a fortnight. They just confuse and lead to midleading headlines.
I agree with Lord Ashcroft, iit is alleged he does not pay any attention to national polls, only the marginal ones he conducts.