ICM has the blues back in the 40s
March 6th, 2010
CON 40% (37)
LAB 31% (30)
LD 18% (20)
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 6%
Has the move to Labour run out of steam?
A new ICM poll for the News of the World goes very much against the trend of the past few weeks and has the Tories increasing their lead over Labour to the psychologically key level of 40%.
The comparisons are with the last ICM in the Guardian nearly a fortnight ago.
There’s little doubt that this will provide a real boost to the Tories and might impede the hung parliament narrative. It might also add to doubts within the red camp.
The losers in this survey are Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.
ICM has been operating in the same broad manner since the mid-1990s and was the first pollster to take radical measures after the 1992 polling disaster.
Fieldwork took place from Tuesday until Thursday.
Also coming up tonight is the latest YouGov daily poll - in the Sunday Times.
UPDATE 2025
CON 38% (38)
LAB 33% (32)
LD 17% (17)
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 4%
But the Tory YouGov lead drops a point
We now have the second poll of the night - the YouGov daily poll for the Sunday Times. Although the differences compared to ICM are well within the margin of error the broad message is that the internet pollster is reporting no change.
Such is the closeness of this election is that these small differences have a huge impact on the outcome.
We’ve talked about YouGov methodologies a lot in recent days and I will not dwell anyt more on this issue.
So two polls tonight - one good for the blues and one for the reds. Let’s see how punters react.
Mike Smithson
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Swingback going backwards?
And after today’s cynical low publicity stunt to see the troops I wonder if labours share will now start to go down, it’s stalled so maybe.
Interesting to see the Tories back to 40 so people might have been frightened after all of a possible brown victory.
lets see what other polls have to say and see if a pattern is emerging
We need to shout louder about Ashcroft.
Obviously people were frightened in thinking that brown might win.
Why in its tables does ICM only give regional breakdowns as North, Midlands and South. What’s the point of that? Useless.
And Major gunning big time for Brown as well - Browns blown another bounce again
Given Brown’s comments on the military high command yesterday, its a little surprising he didn’t have an “accident” in Afghan today
Another lowish number for the LDs will have them a little worried. Tories in the 40s is the main number.
Two polls in two days and neither YG. Praise be.
Tim has gone very quiet since the ICM came out.
The bunker must be weighing up its next move.
In the voting tables I found this on Table 3:
90% of Tory voters did so in 2005 - 18% of their voters from the LibDems in 2005.
69% of Labour voters did so in 2005 - 19% of their voters come from the LibDems in 2005.
58% of LibDem voters did so in 2005. 8% voted Labour and 5% Tory in 2005.
maybe shouting too loudly about Ashcroft has stalled your advance. Seen as hypocritical perhaps?
By all means continue, people DONT care
That’s a relief!
Has anyone Cooked this poll?
If the tracker confirms this trend then it’s clear that Ashcroft is an absolute turn off for voters, although CCHQ may want to keep it rumbling along!!!
The poll shows Labour improving their share by one point and OGH asks if Labour are running out of steam!
Seems to me, on these results that the LabDems are the Party that are running out of steam.
FPT
Re the determined Ashcroft haters and its lack of impact on the polls - I am minded to recommend to them a (modified) famous quote, with apologies to the ghost of Lyndon B Johnson:
“Did you ever think that making a speech on Ashcroft is a lot like p*ssing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else.”
I think Mike puts it well - ‘run out of steam’ is a good description. YouGov’s last few trackers also, and perhaps the new TNS BMRB, suggest the same general conclusion.
Clearly the Tories will be a bit relieved by this, but still nervous.
7. It’s being considered: http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=145352.html
Numbers all over the place. I think we are heading for a hung pollster.
7 Yes, everytime there is a Broon-bounce and it looks like he should call an election - he bottles it and the polls start to dive.
It’s like the electorate see the polls becoming close and start thinking about what another 5 years of Broon would actually be like. I’m guessing the outcome of those thoughts is along the lines of disastrous!
FPT: More on weightings from Anthony Wells:
“For methodology geeks, ICM’s topline adjustment for “the spiral of silence” – the re-allocation of don’t knows according to which party they voted for at the last election – increased the Conservative lead in this poll. Before the re-allocation the topline figures would have been CON 40%, LAB 32%, LDEM 18%. For many years now this adjustment has tended to help Labour, with “shy Tories” long since replaced by “Bashful Blairites”. I very much doubt this means anything – it’s probably just a freak occurance – so please don’t get all excited about the return of shy Tories (at least, not yet!) but nevertheless it’s interesting to see it again. Ironically, without the topline adjustment the Conservative lead in the previous ICM poll would have been 9 points, so would have fallen in this poll.”
LD 18% (20)
LAB 31% (30)
CON 40% (37)
Clegg must be relieved that the LDs now regularly get above 16%.
12 - Majority of 60
Re Gordo`s visit to the troops,he had his jacket off, and what did we see, one big fat belly, what a sight
Boosted Tories on the rise
“this might impede the hung parliament narrative.”
…no, please. I want the odds to drift away further, to bet more and more on Tory Overall Majority with a better return…
Viva Cashcroft! I say.
P.S. Please YouGov, give us another 2-point lead….
14 - Bugie, the 1% change in Labour’s position is low MOE and the Tory move is high MOE. So arguably a 1% shift could just be noise or genuine - we don’t know. In fact if you remove the Spiral of Silence adjustment, the Tories are actually down in this poll according to Mr Wells. You can read polls in many ways
Yep…keep on banging on about ashcroft lefties….clearly it’s a massive scandal which is moving the country…
FPT:
491.This is probably what the real state of play is out in the country.
One thing caught my eye from the detailed tables and it may or may not be significant - others will know much better than me - but 25% of the original 1,005 people questioned either did not know how they were going to vote or would not say. However, a lot more people were prepared to give opinions on which parties had the best policies in the different areas ICM asked about. That indicates to me - though I might be completely wrong - that a lot of those don’t knows probably do know, but are not prepared to say.
Overall, it’s pleasing to see the Tories at 40% in a poll. Labour are hanging around the 30% mark though it is notable that they seem to be holding 30% as their floor (excepting AR). This is still a definite improvement for them…
It’ll be the people of Britain who have the blues if we have the misfortune to find Wobbler and George (economic illiterate) Osborne in charge of the country. Though I expect Ashcroft might decide to cough up the tax he owes if his cronies are in position to pay it back to him and his wealthy amigos.
11 - Nonsense, all my friends who read the Guardian are enraged about him, therefore all the voters must be as well.
What I’ve failed to understand about lab’s attack on Ashcroft is that to the average Sun reader or potential nu lab voter, party funding is some obscure science that has nowt to do with them.
But when you say Ashcroft’s the bloke that founded Crimestoppers, funds Help for Heroes and buys up VC’s for the nation, they say, decent bloke, who does good things I understand. And he’s a tory - they must have changed then.
High profile for Ashcroft is good for Dave. Is this being reflected in ICM
25. Yes, I appreciate SthLondon Nick, I was remarking at the spin put upon it by OGH.
On the face of it is an encouraging poll for the Conservatives, but not all doom and gloom for Labour as their support is still on the increase.
21. MB. Thanks.
I find it quite amazing that if the Tory lead on GE day is 3% higher than this - which is quite possible - the Tories could get an overall majority of 100+ seats. And if the Tory lead on GE night is 3% lower than this - which is quite possible - we could have a hung Parliament,
14. LabDems? Do you mean Senior.
Swing-forward.
I think the underlying situation is 40/30. The 38/33 polls were what happens when the Tory campaign hits rock bottom.
Been out all day and this is really interesting. Have to say this accords with where I would put the race. Conservatives enough ahead early 40’s, Labour low 30’s and Lib Dems high teens. I suspect that this will prove to be broadly the result, give or take and is more than enough for a small but workable majority.
13 One new aspect of this election in Ulster could be significant numbers of mainlanders tramping round the province supporting the UUP campaign and GOTV effort. Will that be good or not for the UUP/Cons in terms of the local champion factor in your view.
Please forgive me for being honestly confused. I am sure I am being thick but:
“90% of Tory voters did so in 2005 - 18% of their voters from the LibDems in 2005.”
Surely that is just not possible unless there are 108% Tory voters.
35. No, I am referring to the Party that have become Labour’s lapdogs.
I think what it tells us that the visceral hatred of Labour about Lord Ashcroft and what has been said in the HOC and outside of it shows Labour for what it is. Likewise Bullygate did nothing for the Conservatives.
One wonders if in this election negative campaigning won’t work because of the issue of expenses.The population at large is hardly in love with MP’s and partisan slagging off such as we have seen is a major own goal.
26 - The logial extension of your argument is that all politicians should talk about is football and the X Factor.
More seriously, are the Tories wrong to throw the kitchen sink at Gordon Brown over his trip to Afghanistan today when time after time the polls indicate that that bashing Brown does not work and this latest poll shows Labour in the lead on Afghanistan? On the basis of your argument, you would have to say they are wrong. But that’s ridiculous, isn’t it?
You Gov Out
38 33 17
URL says it all about Gordon Brown and his use of military personnel as props.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5822428/sir-john-major-accuses-brown-of-conduct-profoundly-unbecoming-of-a-prime-minister.thtml
You Gov 38:33:17
31
All my friends read Pig Fanciers weekly and dont even know an election is coming!
43/45 is there a link or is this from Sky?
Well they can’t both be right. We are fools to take polls as Holy Writ.
That sill old queen Peter Spencer (on SKY News but closet Labourite) claimed that a 9% lead was 6% short of an overall majority. Eh?
If the Tories need 15% more people voting for them than Labour we really are in Zimbabwean state.
From a link PoliticsHome
33 - And there could well be a lot of votes still to play for given that 25% of the original sample did not know who they were going to vote for or would not say.
47 - From a tweet and an “apparantly” article on LabourList
43 — I Love YouGov.
Keep feeding the “hung parliament” narrative…
LabourList are basing a report on this :
“You Gov poll in Sunday Times tmw : Con 38, Lab 33, LD 17 (on PA, but not yet online) compares to 38/32/17 in last YG daily tracker”
http://twitter.com/abelardinelli
yeah but you gov just ask the same people every day. They might as well publish all of nexts weeks while we’re at it
48. Statistically, yes they can.
O/T there are some really third-rate trolls on the site at present.
It’s a hopeful sign, but not enough to hang your hat on.
52 Any views on when we can expect the next Canadian election.
7
Ah, yes, John Major, the last Tory political Titan. Remember the brown envelopes (how different from Lord A’s selfless probity and patriotism) and the Great Campaign Against Road Traffic Cones to counter billions squandered by Norm “regrette rien” Lamont. Yes they were definitely the good old days.
So the lead is 6-7 and all the polls fit
Icm headline disappointing , internals not so much
YouGov is post Chilcot?
YouGov=LoLGov….
55
Can you explain ?
59. Mostly done on Friday - so before people saw this morning’s papers (not that I think they will make much difference)
59 - you don’t seriously expect Chilcot to have been positive for Brown ?
Tim
And yes pre cynical trip to the troops
Doesnt fool anyone.
Ashcroft!
Now what a discrace, lets have a long debate about this, i’m appalled that no one has brought the subject up recently ! lol
61. they could both be right because of MOE - the actual lead could be, e.g., 7%…
So the lead is 6-7 and all the polls fit
Since when is 9 between 6 and 7…has the order of numbers change in the last 24hrs?
ICM at 40 is vastly significant. Remember, if the Tories get 40%, they will win a majority.
I must confess to having been worried by the ICM 37 poll - certainly more worried by that than the YG 2-point lead - but this has relaxed me somewhat.
58
Remember the impact of Major’s comments in 2007?
Unlike brown, Major respects the military
58. Brown paper envelopes? If only our present masters were stealing amounts so small you had to hide them in brown paper envelopes.
Considering the sleazy and corrupt way this government and its members have lined their own and organisations they support pockets, for you to even mention brown paper envelopes shows a staggering lack of self awareness.
55 - Aren’t all trolls by definition third rate?
Not bad for Labour - moving forward in both polls.
Also in the ICM, closing the gap with the tories on the main issues is very encouraging.
Interesting that the fieldwork for the ICM poll was done during the height of the AShcroft story and before Gordon Brown appeared before Chilcott. Now if the field work was taking place now and probably especially after tomorrow’s headlines, who would bet against Labour being back down around 28%?
59-There we have the bunkers response from Tim.
lets get the YouGov out quickly so ICM doesnt become narrative changing.
66
So both polls could be correct because they could both be incorrect ?
Given that ICM haven’t footled around with their weightings like yougov I’d be more inclined towards the former. Of course I would say that, but none the less it’s worth stating.
71. No, the trick is for them to tread the line where no-one’s sure if they’re a troll our not. Done well enough a good troll can be excellent.
72-Now we have part of the coordinated response from Gabble.
Gabble
You’re a card
72
Drivel
12 - “Has anyone Cooked this poll?2
Dont get people started on “cooked” polls
56 Stars re 1812. Actually when the Congress declared war the forces opposed in Canada very much consisted of the B team. All what was thought of the best infantry, resources ships etc were busy in Europe. That was why Jefferson predicted a walkover. A matter of mere marching etc. What was in Canada was regular troops not shipped to Europe, colonial militia and Quebecker and Indian forces. The Americans confidently expected the Quebeckers to side with them. The only thing the Congress didn’t and couldn’t expect was a General of true genius in Isaac Brock to oppose them. The irony was it was only after the A team arrived in 1814 did the US start recording significant wins after the Bladensburg reversal.
Really interesting that Sir John Major is putting the boot into Brown this evening, presumably to be followed by an article in a broadsheet Sunday paper. Because he does it so charmingly and without ever raising his voice, the rare “exocets” he launches tend to land on their target.
I wonder if he will play any part in the Tory election campaign? There are few finer hand-pressing campaigners than the former PM, a man who never avoided meeting the general public unlike either of his successors who were/are rarely seen anywhere near a non handpicked audience.
75. They could both be statistically correct….
Has the you poll been confirmed anywhere other than twitter?
59. No the lead is 9 points. That’s maths that is.
Even though Major got a good”kicking” in 1997 most people still regarded him as a decent man.Even his opponents.
The contrast with GB could not be more stark.
85. *yougov poll
What are need are three billy goat gruffs. Let us remember.
Bribrad@58
“Well, come along! I’ve got two spears,
And I’ll poke your eyeballs out at your ears;
I’ve got besides two curling-stones,
And I’ll crush you to bits, body and bones.”
That was what the big billy goat said.
And then he flew at the troll, and poked his eyes out with his horns, and crushed him to bits, body and bones, and tossed him out into the river.
83; Hope he does Easterross. I think Major is a serious asset to the Tories. I think he has a warmth and decency about him, in stark contrast to the current No10 incumbent.
There are as many don’t knows as weighted LD voters in the ICM poll. I am sure polls used to report don’t knows. Why don’t they do that any more?
So, the most recent poll has Labour winning the most seats.
Thank Ashcroft.
Cameron makes surprise trip to Belize to boost morale of Lord Ashcroft’s troops and to thank them for helping Lord Integrity avoid paying several millions of pounds which could have been spent on defence budget or schools and hospitals. “I am proud and humbled by your dedication,” he tells them “and would like to assure you that should I have the honour of being elected to serve, I will make sure that every decent-thinking supporter of my party will have the opportunity to defraud the British public should they so wish. Right? That’s cleared that up? OK? Right! Now let’ just move on to the issues that really…”(drowned out by sycophantic cheers of hired flunkies).
Lefties obviously not worried about the John Major intervention.
johnrentoul
Tory accuses Labourite of doing wrong stuff. Who will take John Major pipe seriously? http://alturl.com/mmag
Kevin_Maguire
John Major, who led Cons to worst defeat since Waterloo, tmrw attacks Labour. Ho-ho-ho…
Oh, wait…
74. Yes it’s strange these polls are supposed to be embargoed, yet Labour ’sources’ seem to get them early whenever appropriate.
87; Beat me to it, Timmo!
57- Philippe has sworn off all interest in Canadian politics ever since he became SeanT Jr.
82- You’re right, it was a mixed bag for both sides and the Canadian expedition was a disaster. Still, the Brits were in many respects at their height in those days (although momentarily overextended), so it wasn’t a bad showing overall for the Yanks.
The ICM seems more likely to me. I think the yougov weighting is out by a bit because the labour vote isn’t changing evenly - it’s going up some places and down in others.
My take on the ICM:
Hung parliament scare = vote from other to Tory.
Lab-Lib vote swingss over whether Cameron makes it’s safe to vote LD or not. Heavily dependent on Cameron’s performance from week to week.
Zanus wasting their time on Ashcroft should focus on Cameron’s multiple faces meaning he can’t be trusted and then seguing that into el Torees will use the financial crisis (caused by their mates) to slash and burn pushing the country into a double-dip.
Dunno what LDs should do as their best strategy (imo) relies on teh Cameroons not messing up.
Tories just need to not shoot themselves in the foot as much.
imo
You Gov = Hung Parliament
ICM = Tory Majority
ARS = Tory Landslide.
You pays your money and takes your choice.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Populus on Monday goes with ICM or YouGov.
Is there an ICM Sunday Telegraph as well?
98. “slash and burn pushing the country into a double-dip.”
It’s early days, but interesting to see whether Cameron’s new line on cutting spending takes hold.
Businesses don’t tell you that a cut in prices means lower quality of service. Why should government?
YouGov are the Mandelson of polls; I’m sick of them popping up every day and cheering for Gordon
42 I think negative campaigning will be labours specialty this election, for example see your ashcroft nonsense today. I think as long as the tories attack brown’s policies/politics and presentation rather than his personal foibles they have no problems.
So today was a transparent ploy by brown to try and upstage cameron’s wales speech and offset chilcot publicity. It is so obvious that attacking brown about it is expected and given the fact that he underequipped troops and then tried to use them for his own political gain I would guess welcomed by the public.
83, 90: totally agree re Major. He went out on the stump, with his soapbox, and met ordinary folk day after day in his battle to stay in office. He was rewarded with over 14m votes for the Tories, a number that no party looks like getting at a GE ever again.
A thoroughly decent and vastly under-rated PM was John Major. If only the last 2 occupants of No 10 had followed his example.
92.
Desperate, Gabble.
94: Lefties don’t understand that Major was seen as a decent man doing the best he could of a clapped out tired party which couldn’t be governed or govern.
Is it not the case that following the logic applied by our friends in the media, the narrative should be Tory lead increasing for both polls?
After all last Sunday’s YouGov had a Tory lead of 2% and this Sunday’s has a lead of 5%. We all know that YouGov is polling 5 days a week but then we also know that YouGov is reducing the Tory lead by between 8 and 12% with their adjustments. So what will tonight’s adjustment be? + and -2%, + and -4% or + and -6%!
89
Interesting point. I’m reading Noddy Goes To Belize With Willy at the moment. Any other four-year olds like to join our reading group?
Indeed…let us not forget, that Major almost single-handedly won an election for the tories which they really should have lost, and led to the fall of ‘old’ labour, and the rise of ‘new’ labour.
97 In many ways it is arguable possibly that the reverses ultimately proved beneficial to the US as it finished US expansion towards the North and redirected it southwards and westwards instead meaning the plains states and Texas today.
92 - Errrr… Ashcroft broke on 1st and was all over the news. Polling started on this 2 days later. So there is no evidence of an Ashcroft effect anywhere.
93 Bribrad,the problem with your attempts to show that the Tories favour the super-rich is that there are many more concrete examples that this is exactly what Labour has done during the past thirteen years. The gap between rich and poor has widened. Hedge funds were allowed to classify income as capital gains and this was then taxed as low as 10%. The bankers who nearly brought the UK financial system to its knees received their knighthoods from guess who – labour. One of the more amusing sights in recent years was the hysterical response of Ed Balls when Osbourne proposed a levy on non-doms, which finally shamed Labour into introducing their own watered-down scheme. The sad truth is that Labour was dazzled by the wealth of the City and the super-rich and not a few of our current difficulties follow from that niaivete.
Even the recent news bulletins about Ashcroft have usually ended with the statement that all the parties receive donations from non-doms. A word of advice: it’s never a good tactic to attack the Tories for something when your party are guilty of the same or worse. The electorate might suspect hypocrisy.
The Tories need to keep reminding people about Lord Paul, the Unite union (currently wrecking jobs at BA), and Michael Brown, the crook who funded the Lib Dems at the last election.
107 - Lefties understand that very well. It’s what gives us hope once Brown has gone. Major was much more liked than his party. Brown’s party is much more liked than him.
87. timmo.
The thing is, 1997 wasn’t about “voting Major out”.
Has Gordon piled the weight on since he started running/eating bananas ? he looks really bloated in the Afghan pics.
105
thoroughly decent? married to Norma having it away with edwina?
58. “Yes they were definitely the good old days.”
I’d swap then for now without the slightest hesitation. The Major government was rubbish, Brown’s is a catastrophe.
Bribrad really is the shittest new troll.
Mike Smithson:
“ICM has the Tories on 40% - nine points ahead. YouGov has gap at 5 points. ”
http://twitter.com/MikeSmithsonPB
52 — I have no idea, honestly. I’m following the Health Care Reform in the US and and the British GE at the moment. I will follow Canada when there will be betting markets!
121. We really should have a ‘Troll Idol’ or ‘The Bot Factor’ at some point. Pick out the very best.
94 - Maguire comparing Major’s defeat to Waterloo, a battle which was, in the words of the victor “the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life.”, in an attempt to say it was some terrible loss?
Idiot.
121 No that’s not fair.
Shit is useful. It makes things grow. Bribrad isn’t like shit.
Bribrad is like plutonium-239. Only useful if you want everything devastated.
104 - “I think negative campaigning will be labours specialty this election”
Imagine this past week of hyper-shrilling for the entire campaign.
Can only think it’s down to a sheer emotional/knee jerk reaction, because there’s no way a governing party would act like an opposition, surely?
105 - even my lifelong Labour supporting grandmother liked him.
Like Michael Foot and to a lesser extent Tony Benn, time has certainly helped Major’s reputation.
There is a sense of fair play in the British psyche still (which is why constant negativity as shown this past week doesn’t work for long), and Major does have that.
122: Just ignore him. Theres nothing of merit to his witterings at all.
Canada - 124,58 - no election before the autumn I think as the Liberals have signalled they won’t try to bring the government down until they are ready for power, so probably no GE in the spring.
121
And you’re the trollest old shit. Did you do GCSE in rhetorical skills?
127: At least Major won an election. Brown…..well Brown..nope, can’t think of anything to say.
17 - I rather enjoyed this comment from your link
“He doesn’t deserve to “Win”, he’s an incompetent disgrace, a self-admitted liar, a foul-tempered oaf and quite possibly a f**king nutter as well.He cares nothing for the future well-being of this country, only for his own reputation and that of his utterly discredited, demonstrably toxic political party. If he and they continue in office they will take this county over the edge of ruin. I wouldn’t trust the man to tell me the time of day or run the proverbial whelk-stall. He’s the Peter Principle writ large, only he’s been promoted not one, but probably half-a dozen levels beyond his competence, the sooner we’re shot of this crazed, delusional weirdo the better for the UK and us all.”
129. anonymous and dangerous: there’s no way a governing party would act like an opposition, surely?
Have you been paying attention for the last year?
Really, ever since the end of Brown Bounce II no Labourite has had anything positive to say about Labour.
Which makes sense, when you consider that this is to be a change election. If Labour say “we’ll change X by doing Y”, the obvious response is “why haven’t you done Y in the last 13 years?”
41 “One wonders if in this election negative campaigning won’t work because of the issue of expenses.”
If none of this stuff is registering maybe the “they’re all as bad as each other” voters have all been squeezed out already.
Excellent polls.
One that keeps the hung narrative going and another from a pollster with no frills and a very sound record which gives us a clearer picture.
Hope YouGov gets some traction. On reputation it looses out to ICM but it wins on frequency.
Labour seems keen to shut up John Major!
105. Major is a decent fellow but wasn’t intellectually or temperamentally suited to be PM.
My grandmother, who was a decent judge of character, always said she thought he would have made a much better parson than politician.
Forgive my polling ignorance, but is it possible to work out from the raw data what these Yougov polls would be showing using their old methodology?
What is really sad about the trolls is they think they make a difference. With the best will in the world this site, even with its relatively large readership is going to have absolutely no impact on the eventual outcome of the next GE. Yet these sad, trolls toil away hour after hour after endless hour in the belief that they “make a difference”. They probably think it’s “the right thing to do”
So to make it simple. Nothing anybody says on here will make the slightest bit of difference to a GE. This is a place of entertainment for the majority and a source of tips for the minority of gamblers. It is not a place for effective political campaigning.
125. The elevation of an nonentity like Ashton really illustrates what a nepotistic political system the ‘people’s party’ has created.
The element that will swing this against Labour is the idea that its time for a change.
That sentiment is out there and its strong. If the Tories attempt to just muddle through and use that as their sole plank of strategy, however, then they are effectively leaving victory to the fates.
Cameron’s call over another 5 years of Brown most likely had an effect but the Tories still haven’t really gone near some touchstone issues. Crime, immigration etc.
135 - I think I should have put a
at the end of that comment.
Defending a 13 year old record is never easy for anyone, but I think the negativity we’ve just had a taste of really is going to be amazing.
136. It’s ironic that Labourites like Toilets are trashing Major when only recently they were invoking him as an example of how to win against the odds!
Obviously it pales into insignificance compared with the ICM poll, but do we have a confirmed source for the YouGov poll, other than Twitter and vangue references to the PA wire? There’s nothing on Google News yet.
139
Length of your post seems slightly at odds with your message.
132. What a great description of Brown.
141. You’re right - it will be relentlessly nasty and personal all the way to the GE; think the campaign against Boris Johnson multiplied several times. Labour’s campaign will be the ugliest of modern times.
140. Good post. On the other hand maybe they are just pr*cks.
32
‘32.What I’ve failed to understand about lab’s attack on Ashcroft is that to the average Sun reader or potential nu lab voter, party funding is some obscure science that has nowt to do with them.’
The other significant difference is that it’s Ashcroft’s money funding the Tory campaign as oppossed to recyled (modernisation fund) taxpayers money via the Unions that’s funding Labour’s campaign.
122/140. I’ve stopped reading some. Pointless exercise.
John Major’s intervention matters because;
1. It gives the charge new publicity.
2. He does it so rarely it still has traction.
3. He is regarded as decent.
Although the law of diminishing returns and coupled with the fact that last time everyone thought Brown was a saint, not a t*rd, suggests the effect will be less this time.
142 see 38.
145. runnymede.
Of course, Boris was able to benefit from the vitriol by his general air of bemused indifference that helped him seem to be above it all and hence better than his opponents. I’m not sure Cameron, as a more intense character, can pull off the same trick.
Reflecting upon my canvassing adventure today in Great Yarmouth I was struck by how ’settled’ peoples voting intensions are. The polls are telling us that about 30pc of voters are waverers and are still to make-up their minds. The evidence of my own eyes in this key Labour-held marginal seems to disprove this.
Secondly, I think I have experienced the practicality of the YouGov Labour classification. I met a number of voters who voted for Blair but would never vote for Brown.
These ‘blair Conservatives’ are what I think YouGov means by ‘labour disloyal’. But I’ve got news for YouGov. My canvassing today suggests they’re going to turn out for Cameron.
I didn’t meet any Labour-Loyals and neitHer did any of my 7 conpanions. So I don’t know whether they’ll turn out for Brown. The fact that 8 people couldn’t find a Labour voter in 2 hours in a non-posh part of a Labour-held marginal tells me that, again, I think YouGov is missing the plot and ICm is more in tune with what’s really happening on the ground.
Bunnco - your man on the spot
I’ve been banned again. Must have committed a heresy re, Kellner.
I think the most significant figure is the 25% identified as undecided.
Bearing in mind that over the last week we have had wall to wall coverage of Brown and Cameron, this is a very high percentage to be still unconvinced by them.
Let us imagine that, with equal coverage, this group finally breaks equally among Tory, Lab and Lib Dem, that would bring the Lib Dem percentage up to about 25%.
So I find this very encouraging.
Military advice from John Major is an interesting concept.
“first let Douglas Hurd take over Foreign Policy”
“then watch the genocides on TV”
145
Amazing how you suggest a vicious OTT expletive-ridden rant is “a great description of Brown” and go to complain about Labour’s ugly negativity and nasty attacks on Boris “Cripes” Johnson.
It’s a big relief that neither Ashcroft or Hague have resigned.
Both will win votes for Labour but only if they stay in place.
154-Tim
You are really skating on thin ice here.
Too many of your party showed either total indifference or actuallly turned deliberate blind eyes during the balkans conflict.
If i remember both David Owen and Paddy Ashdown tried their best much to the annoyance of many in their parties.
Why was this?
145- You can’t really blame Labour for going viciously negative, if that’s what they choose to do. They have already made some progress by trying to make the election about Tory proposals rather than about Labour accomplishments and ideas. Their only decent strategy is to continue to portray the Tories as monsters and make that the key to the election.
154: The only thing which will stick in the general public with Major and Military is the First Gulf War. Little loss of life on the allies side, and generally seen as a all round ‘good war’.
150. We’ll see - I really don’t know. But we can be sure the Labour filth machine will test him out, and other shadow cabinet members.
There is going to be a string of attempts at smears, dredging up material old, discredited and entirely invented.
Families, including wives and children, will also be targeted.
Labour have no record to defend, no vision of the future to present. This is all they have left.
158.
154 tim
Are you still in your hunting lodge?
Did you bag any Hague or Ashcroft today?
156: Completely clear from the ICM poll there gabs of course…the tory vote is going through the floor…
(Only if you’re operating in zero gravity, but then Gabble does appear to often be on another planet.)
151 - I’ve been in a number of key marginals of late doing the same thing and that sort of story is not dissimilar to what we are finding. What I will add though is that today I was out in my own seat very safe Conservative seat. Not really pushing up much from where we are already. I suspect that in currently held seats the Conservative swing is lower.
In every Scottish election Tories do better than the polling suggests and Labour and SNp worse. Has anyone checked The English figures? Labour voter apathy, a reluctance to admit you’re a Tory and experience etc suggest to me that Yougov should adjust Labour down, not up.
The thing about going negative is that you can only adopt that strategy for so long.
Eventually there comes a time when people want more than that.
Labour have gone too early on this possibly with the thought that they may have called an end of March election.
Now they look a bit stuffed.
For all i know Major might be a nasty piece of work in person but he comes across the opposite way on the telly box as shown by how completely disassociated he personally is from the previous Tory government despite being the PM - a bit Callahan-ish in that regard. Major asset (boom boom) if, as mentioned, used sparingly.
145 Runnymede
You’re right, it will be the ugliest of all time. And i think thats where labour could really blow it.
I’ve always believed, that what will be will be, and the public gets what the public wants. Sorry about all the cliches, but i think mud slinging is pointless.
If labour want to win this election, they should just be normal. Its their nasty behaviour over recent years which has made them unpopular.
Everyone knows this financial meltdown was global and not made in the UK. But the labour hierachy, Mcbride et al, have behaved so stupidly that they could actually lose an election that they might otherwise win.
You see this is all about absolute power, and Gordon Brown is more guilty of this than anyone else. Namely that Labour want to win at the moment of their choosing, and by winning now by fair means or foul, means according to their tiny minds, and with their nasty techniques, that they will be able to win in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030.
If only they accepted that politics, like economics, is cyclical, and if it is the will of the gods that they should have a 4th term, then they will.
They just can’t chill out can they ?
I bet that series The Thick of it is closer to the truth than we imagine. Bullying, shouting, threatening, its all a case of ‘the ends justify the means’. We must keep the Tories out at all costs, because they eat babies.
167- You’re right, an across-the-board negative strategy is highly dependent on good timing. If your negative material is flawed/unfair/excessive/false, you can’t afford for it to run it’s course and produce a backlash before election day.
167 - Negative campaigning only works if it feeds into an already percieved weakness. It is also best practiced from a winning position, losers who go negative look desperate.
I watched the 1979 version of Macbeth again tonight with IanMckellan and Judi Dench.
A fantastic tour de force by them both but also a perfect example of how power can corrupt and twist the mind.
Gb would do well to watch it especially for its ending.
“YouGov daily poll 38/33/17″
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Some of the red team not happy with their great leaders little PR shoot it seems?
H/T conhome…
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=10556
153. Curious, I have a theory and I think it works. I haven’t tested it against the data but it seems intuitively reasonable, and I think it fits with what happened in 2005.
The Lib Dems get squeezed in the pre-election period because media coverage goes into election mode without the equal coverage rules being in force. The two larger parties are all over the media but voters don’t really focus on their constituency contests and the Lib Dems are accordingly squeezed. Part (not all) of the Lib Dem “campaign bounce” results simply from the fact that Lib Dem poll ratings tend to be depressed during the pre-election period.
171 - what channel was that on?
168. No - it’s ‘we must keep the Tories out at all costs to make sure we maintain our power, privileges and vast money-earning capacity’.
I do like the photo in this article
http://joanmcalpine.typepad.com/joan_mcalpine/
Sunday Times should be interesting
170- Everything in politics is best practiced from a winning position, but the key for Labour in this election is to make it a referendum on the Tories. That is very tough to do, but it’s their last best hope. So far, the Tories have been willing to help Labour in that effort which is why it has been working to some extent.
HOUSEKEEPING
PBers please keep in mind that the numbering of comments is HIGHLY subject to moderation. That is, if there is a comment in moderation, then it gets released, it changes the numbers from that point forward.
SO if you are making a comment (esp. if your attacking!) on some other PBers words of wisdom, it’s a good idea to not only note the number BUT also the author.
That way, the rest of us have a fighting chance of figuring out what the heck you’re raving on about!
Punter certainly the Cameron Direct from Ballymena during the Euros was a big news event here. I expect him to do at least 1 here during the GE and it should be beneficial to the CU’s.
153 - Yes, I am surprised that more is not being made of the 25% that say they are undecided or just won’t say. When asked about specific policies, clearly a lot of that 25% were happy to give an opinion. I take that as meaning a lot of don’t knows are actually won’t says.
Interestingly, in the weighted sample the LDs got 111 preferences which is exactly the same as they got for who has the best policies on tax. In all other areas they got below their 111 base. Labour outscored its weighted preferences (211) in every policy category, the Tories (262) in almost every category and the LDs underscored in every one apart from tax and the environment.
Stars&Zogby is nasty today,
:), Is the cold having his way?
175-I have it on DVD .
One of the things that has always stayed witth me is going to watch it at the Young Vic in 1979.
Was so grabbed by it i went and saw it another 3 times.It was in the round and very powerful.
You can watch it in chunks on YouTube.
I see the Independent on Sunday has a front page advert for the Harman Tendency.
165 - that’s not quite accurate. Yougov always overestimates the SNP - by 6points in 2007 and around 4 points in 2005, but not Labour. They actually do get the Tory vote about right - its just that the Tories don’t seem to get past 16 or 17% - no-one can quite work out why!. Mcletchie might make the difference this time if he gets to focus his attack on Salmond - where as Goldie regularly votes with Samnd - which just doesn’t seem to work?
182- If you can call me Zogby, I can call you SeanT Jr.!
By the way, I hope all is going well with the baby.
176 Runnymede
Yes you’re right, thats probably another angle.
Mind you modern socialism is nothing to do with helping the working classes. Rather it has become the philosophy to justify the have nots having access to vast untold riches just like the the upper classes used to solely be in possession of.
Sure its equality, but only equality among the rich.
“Its equality Jim, but not as we know it”.
Another thought on Ashcroft / negative campaigning etc is el Torees having been shooting themselves in the foot a bit recently and drifting down slightly has maybe masked any Ashcroft effect i.e negative campaigning might keep them below a soft ceiling but not when they’re already keeping themselves below that ceiling through their own efforts.
180. Interesting. I wondered how well/badly mainland accents asking for votes in Ulster would be received these days.
Seth - yes.
Ashcroft is the absentee owner, Hague is hiding in a foxhole.
So, Jupiter1 and Runnymede - to sum up, Labour are vile, disgusting, morally bankrupt and generally repulsive. It’s good to see that you are not lowering yourselves to their level by being negative
187
Priceless. Where to start?
“Mind you modern socialism is nothing to do with helping the working classes.”
It reminds me of that time in history when the urban merchant elite first grew into power and their conflict with the older landed money elite. What we’ve got now is the public sector elites that have come to power since the war conflicted with the private sector elites.
159. Certainly Brown’s advisors finally seemed to have remembered Major in planning today’s trip to Helmand. After the 1991 war Major went to meet the troops wearing a flannel shirt and a pair of slacks, the journo on the trip commented about how the squaddies really took to him and it also seemed to strike a chord with people back home helping the “Nice Guy John” image to get started. The contrast between that and Gordo’s previous trips looking stiff in a suit was simply awful!
170 and others - negativity also works if it doesn’t come from your own prejudices or bigotry.
The BNP for example do themselves damage when they concentrate on immigration. What they propose may be palatable to the electorate, but the fact it’s coming from people who are effectively knuckledragging racists puts the majority of people off.
Happened with Michael Howard over immigration in 2005 - people back then believed that it was just the Tories being the Tories - as proved by those stats which demonstrated how popular Tory proposals were until they found out who were promoting them.
(this by the way should prove to everyone not to underestimate the Cameron detox effect)
Where will Labour go negative? It will be down to class, where certain individuals went to school, “the rich”, and a good old fashioned bit of Fatcha bashing for good measure.
There’s no real reason to go down those routes if you’re thinking logically, but then they are the typical prejudices of many in charge of the Labour party
195-Big difference today is that there were no squaddies in the pictures.
They were all officers and ANA.
I didn’t know Cathy Ashton was married to Peter Kellner!
TOO MUCH LOL!
190
tim, we really ought to have a complete list of your obsessions, but I have forgotten where it all started. Perhaps you could enighten us with a full list.
As usual, these are statistically indistinguishable polls…
anyone got the Yougov sample size?
The whole show recently has been about side issues, Ashcroft, Brown the bully etc, no one really cares beyond the bots and the newspaper columnists who may copy out of it.
Coming up we have the tax year end and the potential budget, plus Q1 GDP numbers. Only the latter can be good for the Government and in the mean time the Greek debacle may mean those nasty gnomes of Zurich decide not to wait on a UK election but give up on the UK as they see Cameron waver on economic policy.
Much more can change in the next few weeks than people expect. My two bets are on a Labour largest majority and a Tory outright win.
I know, I know….Ashcroft consults lawyers:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/7386715/Key-civil-servant-clears-Lord-Ashcroft-of-acting-illegally-in-tax-row.html
196- “negativity also works if it doesn’t come from your own prejudices or bigotry.”
You’re absolutely right.
“Where will Labour go negative? It will be down to class, where certain individuals went to school, “the rich”, and a good old fashioned bit of Fatcha bashing for good measure.”
That’s foolish negative campaigning, unless it is targeted only at core working class Labour voters. The kind of negative campaigning Labour should be focusing on is the sort that puts the Tories as a political party in the harshest possible spotlight. For instance, hammer away at fears that the Tories will take a wrecking ball to cherished programs in the name of fiscal prudence. Suggest that such cuts will be 1) devastating, 2) unnecessary, and 3) undertaken for ulterior motives. That’s the sort of message that could scare almost everybody and avoids descending into class warfare.
Nice? No. Honest? Probably not. Effective? Very possibly.
9 points is a reasonable lead for the Tories. Hope Major properly savages Brown.
I’m loathe to contradict Anthony, but looking at the poll details, it seems as though the real shift by the spiral of silence adjustmenrt was in favour of Covert Cleggites.
The Tories were only not ahead by 9% in the pre-spiral of silence allocation by rounding (205/506, 160/506, 87/506 equals 40.5%, 31.6%, 17.2%; an 8.9% lead). The effective shift was Lab->LD, so an allocation of “Don’t Know/Refusers” on the close order of 38%, 29%, 21% would have been needed to generate the final outcome: Con effectively unchanged, Lab down a smidgen, LD up a little. That is rather unusual, in my opinion.
One other thing that leaps out is from the social classes (major caveat on sample size): The Tories have seized the C2 demographic but gone slightly backwards on the C1 demographic (a comparison with the Guardian 2005 pre-election poll gives the C1 fight going from 32%, 33%, 25% to 33%, 38%, 17% and the C2 fight going from 29%, 47%, 19% to 43%, 30%, 13%)
What does this mean for the fight for the C1/C2s? Don’t know, but it supports Nick P’s reports. The C2 demographic has swung far further to the Tories than I’d have thought; the C1 demographic far less. It’s only one poll and very small sample sizes (which are themselves not past-vote weighted), but it’s still rather interesting. It suggests to me:
- The next election will have huge standard deviation of swing.
- The rewind will be very variable from one seat to another, dependant on demographic breakdown. The overall magnitude of rewind will probably be unaffected, but certain demographics of seats might have a (say) 140% rewind; others a (say) 60% rewind.
Can’t believe the total lack of negative comments from Tory supporters on this site: every last one of them taking care not to attack Gordon personally and not a single nasty or malicious word about Labour. What a bunch of sweet-natured pussycats. Compare that with the vitriolic scorn which their Labour counterparts aim at Dave and Lord (Patriotic Duty) Ashcroft. Why can’t Labour stop this relentless and malevolent negativity. I say stop the ugliness and maintain the standards of objectivity and impartiality that characterises Tory contributors.
“Shoppers could face VAT on food”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7386834/Shoppers-could-face-VAT-on-food.html
“Happened with Michael Howard over immigration in 2005″
Not how i remember it. What happened in 2005 is el Torees talked about immigration just long enough for:
a) People to look up and actually listen to what the Tories were saying.
b) See the Tories crumble almost instantly under a beasting from the BBC.
In other words they got people’s attention just long enough to make people despise them for being weak and go back to not paying attention again.
205: Tax on the poor…won’t happen.
191 Southern
I never said that Labour are vile scum.
What i said was that they have gone from being a highly professional decent party, to being nothing more than a bunch of nincumpoops who couldn’t organise a p*ss up in a brewery.
Sure they’ve done some goods things for the country. But by their behaviour recently, they have shown themselves to be a party that has grown used to the trappings of power and are prepared to do whatever it takes to keep power, everything that is except those things “WHICH MIGHT ACTUALLY WIN THE ELECTION FOR THEM”.
I can’t help wondering that if Mandy was solely in charge, things would be just a bit more polished. But with Brown there as well, any sheen which Mandy could put on things, would soon be sullied by Brown’s hoodlums sticking the boot in.
The one thing that the Labour party don’t seem to understand is the phrase, “Horses for Courses”.
And in that the Labour party chiefs’ respective roles are:
1) Gordon Brown to absorb all the sh*t until election day, at which point he will be seen as a democrat after all and willing to be subject to the will of the people, and possibly seen in a good light after all, instead of the dictator he is seen as now because of the cancelled election in 2007.
2) Jack Straw and Darling to be the statesmen of the party, and act as the party’s respected faces.
3) Mandy to organise everything behind the scenes, with a bit of help from Campbell, AND NO-ONE ELSE.
4) Everyone else in the Labour party to keep their mouths shut tight until May 7th, and not say a friggin word to anyone about anything.
5) McBride et al, to naff off.
If they do all these things, they could actually win.
201 - I wonder if Lord Ashcroft would be happy to take the stand in any action that he initiates.
205-That will help inflation..
186–Everything’s fine. The mother was in the country-side for a while; she’s joining me in Bangkok on monday with the lil fella. He’s a very good boy. Quiet and smiling. He does smell heavenly when he doesn’t stink!
By the way - tim, if you’re around, I’ve finished an uploaded a version of the seat calculator with adjustable rewind per region (see link over on pb2).
Many, many controls to play with - a few too many in my opinion, but it probably would be more accurate - if the correct inputs were known.
194. the stores staff stll manage to make Brown look like a fool in a flak jacket, i can’t post the image off the bbc front page but it is pretty dire. Brown still can’t do the casual look, he still resembles a dour man of the cloth tring too hard to be trendy.
198 - MTF - perhaps your time would be better spent working out why I became your obsession.
207-Blackadder-Why not?
He did it with the 10p tax rate.
I have no idea how many PBers have actually met John Major and how many base their opinions on his Spitting Image puppet?
Firstly re Edwina, their affair occured when both were very junior ministers in Margaret Thatcher’s government, long before he became a cabinet minister let alone PM.
Secondly, I had the privilege to be an Area Officer in the party during his premiership and as such met him (and Norma) around half a dozen times in both a political and social context during his first 5 years as PM.
The comment most people made when first meeting him is that they had no idea he is so tall (around 6 feet) and slim. He has a superb memory for names and faces. My father died just before he became PM. He met my mother on a number of occasions and on each asked her how she was coping with my father’s death.
As a politician, he will probably go down as the PM achieving the highest party vote at a GE in the modern era, higher than either Lady Thatcher or Tony Blair.
I also happen to believe he will eventually be seen as one of the politically most ruthless PMs. He almost worked the image of the grey man. However for 5 of his 7 days as PM he pushed through some of the most controversial legislation in decades with effectively no majority, it not taking many by-elections and nutter revolts to destroy his 21 seat majority from 1992. Tony Blair struggled to get several key pieces of legislation through with a majority of 160 and then 66.
Finally for those lefties who are pouring scorn on him, when he went into the 1997 general election,
we were in the 5th consecutive year of economic growth
we had falling unemployment, lower than it is now
we did not have a £178+ billion deficit
we had huge surpluses in our pension funds
people were saving more money
more kids could read, write, spell and count when they left school even if the school buildings were not shiny and new
thousands of people were not dying each year having gone into hospital for routine operations because of illnesses picked up in hospital even if the hospital buildings were victorian and the wards were larger
fewer children were living in poverty than now
more old people could afford to heat their homes
innocent Brazilians weren’t being shot in bungled police operations
British citizens werent being tortured in American military camps set up beyond any proper legal system including that of the US Supreme Court
He hadn’t lied to Parliament as a means of justifying the start of a war and of course he didnt launch Gulf War 1 without ensuring British troops were properly equipped for the fight ahead.
206. Immigration was a vote winner in 2005, but it wasn’t remotely enough of a vote winner to get a decent result.
“Union’s secret marginals campaign could outfox the Tories ”
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/03/unions-secret-marginals-campaign-could-outfox-the-tories.html
211- Well congratulations to you, stink or no stink!
205 - I can see Darling raising VAT in the budget. But I thnk he will apply it just to those areas that are currently affected.
“The next election will have huge standard deviation of swing.”
Define “huge”…
imho, 4% would be huge.
“After the 1991 war Major went to meet the troops wearing a flannel shirt and a pair of slacks”
I met John Major in Al Jubail during the 1991 Gulf War after he had given an excellent speech to the soldiers. A sincere and unassuming man, the overwhelming view was ‘Top Bloke’.
Fast forward to now, my eldest son is serving in Afghanistan and met GB today. Overwhelming view is that he is a complete ar**hole who looks seven months pregnant and is considered ‘An oxygen thief’.
Was it a spoiling tactic to deflect Chilcott and the wrath of Guthrie, Boyce, Lamb, Cross and Dannatt and any one of hundreds of the bereaved and injured soldiers? Oh yes.
209
Were you in “Bladerunner”?
215: Just don’t see Brown (or Darling) being that foolish. Better to stick it up to 20%,rather then bring it in on food at any rate.
That is a very good point, Jack Peterson. But they do say - don´t they? - that Lib Dem voters tend to be more thoughtful and less tribal.
So it is not surprising that a lot of people who eventually will vote for them are at this stage registering as undecideds.
On this basis, I think the Lib Dems could well end up on 25%. IMO of course.
‘A Critical Marginal Seat for Tories required by DC’
Today’s canvassing. Pensioners and terraces. Band A and Band B retirement area.
Pretty much no change. Labour not quite as solid as normal 4 or 5 doubters. I found 3 switchers out of about 40 responses. Labour to other. Con to Lab (national - not locally), Con to DN. Tories still shy. We only had between us 2 or 3 anti-Brown out of a random 400 doors - all hardline previously canvassed Tory/against. No anti-Cameron today, unusual.
212. “if the correct inputs were known”
Which they never will be. Too many knobs on it make it more likely to produce wacky forecasts…
218. Sorry Gabby, too little, too late.
190 tim
I think you might have mistaken William for Father Tiber.
P.S. If you don’t follow then my guess is wrong.
216. Easterross
You can add to the 1997 list:
The UK had a trade surplus
Industrial production was at an all time high
We had four times as much gold in our reserves
You didn’t hear various foreign languages every time you went to a supermarket
We weren’t fighting a pointless war to stop various Afghan savages from killing each other
When did the Yougov survey end? 5th March?
231
Lot of traffic cones about though.
225 - ahh, thunder box of the fantasy constituency arrives.
thunder box
Nobody believes your canvassing anecdotes.
If you want any credibility you can start by saying which constituency you are in.
216
Easterross,
You forgot to mention that we had an additional 1 million people working in manufacturing industry.
I think we saw in 2007 what was in Gordon Brown’s mind, when he cancelled the election.
namely that he wanted to set out his vision of the country, and win on that basis, rather than just ‘not being Tony Blair’.
He does care passionatley about things, its just he cares about things too much.
A general election victory is like a lottery win, you grab it with both hands. You don’t say ‘i cannot accept this winning ticket, because the numbers were chosen by a method of which i don’t approve’.
You just take the ticket a cash the bl**dy thing in.
Also, one of Gordon Brown’s other weaknesses is his inability to accept that there are people who are better at some things than others.
For example. Mandelson is a better organiser than Brown, and far more cunning. Straw is a better diplomat. Darling has a more calming affect on the markets. But Gordon Brown thinks that because he is PM, he has the edge on all those guys even in their respective areas of expertise.
He should just stop interfering in what they do, and focus on his own job. The whole Labour ship would sail far more smoothly.
234, circa 90%+ of new jobs have gone to non-Britons, and we have about 8m economically inactive people.
Punter made some interesting comments above re: War of 1812 (is this discussion still raging on PB, have been away for a few days?)
BUT statement that failure to absorb British North America redirected American expansion to the Southwest and “the plains” is slightly flawed. Here are some comments/observations:
a) What’s now the US plain states was already US, thanks to the Louisiana Purchase, which establish American soverignty over the entire Mississippi Valley, all the way to the Continental Divide.
b) One direct result of the LP was the Lewis & Clark expedition, which President Jefferson (his last term ended in 1809) lauched, not just to explore the new addition to US territory, but to find the fabled Northwest Passage. Which of course L&C determined did NOT exist in the these latitudes.
b) The Spanish, then colonial masters of Mexico, were indeed very disturbed by implications of American expansionism, to the point that they tried (but failed) to intercept L&C. However, it wasn’t until a generation later (after Mexico had gained it’s independence) for US to effectively “digest” the Mississipi Valley (west of the plains) and thus begin to focus on the Southwest, and also the Northwest.
c) It’s interesting how many Americans were quite willing to leave the bounds of the US to settle in Spanish territory in the early 1800s, and to oblige various Spanish conditions & requirements to do so. For example, Daniel Boone and later Stephen Austin. Of course many of these believed or hoped that these lands would eventually become part of the US. BUT many others didn’t give a fig, while others were quite willing to favor Spain, even to extent of betraying US (for example Aaron Burr, Gen. Wilkerson) if that served their own perceived personal or community interest.
d) In very early 1800s, US interest in Canada was not focused on desire for it’s real estate, as it was in curbing the threat of Indians aided & abbetted by perfidious Albion. That’s what got the War Hawks in places like Kentucky and Tennessee hot and bothered.
e) after the failure to capture Canada and hold it as a spoil of war, the general view of the US (which lasted until my grandfather’s day) was that Canada would eventually fall to the US. Why? Because it was perceived south of the border as lacking geographical, economic, social & political rationale. That all that kept it afloat was the power of the British Empire. And that evetually the Brits would loose interest.
e) Indeed, there was something to be said for this theory, even after Confederation in 1867. For example, during the 19th century there was a serious population drain from the Maritimes, Lower Canada/Quebec and Upper Canada/Ontario to the US, in particular New England and the Midwest. As for the Old Country, as the 19th century progressed and the 20th dawned, imperial authorities became increasing unwilling to defend Canadian interests at the risk of pisssssing off the Yanks. For example, concessions re: Grand Banks fishery and the Alaska border.
f) Story of how Canadians (not Brits) resisted assimilation is fascinating. In political terms, major credit must go to two Canuck PMs: Macdonald (Conservative, Ontario, Anglo) and Laurier (Liberal, Quebec, Frenchy). The former for securing Ruperts Land and British Columbia for Canada, and railroading (in more ways than one) the Canadian Pacific; the latter for helping to (partially) unite the Two Solitudes (esp. after the execution of Louis Riel and the controversy over school language in Manitoba) and presiding over the great Wheat Boom that brought masses of immigrants (mainly from Eastern Europe) to settle the Canadian Praries.
235 ‘he wanted to set out his vision of the country’
We’re still waiting.
I’d be most interested to know if there have been movements in the polls after Gordon Brown’s previous ’surprise’ visits to the troops.
Given that he gave no indication that he had an iota of respect for the military before Tony let him become prime minister, he does seem to visit Afghanistan rather a lot. And he usually does so at, shall we say, ‘politically opportune’ moments.
What thunder box is not saying is that it’s a con/LD marginal with a labour vote that they could write down the names of. Otherwise they’d admit where they were.
216 Easterross - he also consolidated Thatcherism - without him Kinnock’s Labour would have unwound a lot of it, but by the time New Labour gained power it was too late. Argument lost, Britain had moved on. I only heard him speak at a dinner once, but in Q&As he struck me as a decent chap with a pretty clear eyed view of fellow European leaders & the ERM. ‘Helmut’ wanted to bind Eastern Europe to the West, while ‘Mitterand’ wanted a seat on the Bundesbank Board….
236
I remember now. You were “Android who went on and on at great length in irritatingly incoherent metallic voice”.
240, are we, EdP? Surely Brown’s vision is:
Ever greater debt
Ever higher taxes
Ever greater spending (except in the military, unless immediately before an election)
Electoral reform to advantage Labour
Photography to be made illegal
ID cards and a big database belonging in one of Kim Jon-Il’s wet dreams
216 – Easterross, what a wonderful post, it certainly puts into context the subsequent 13 years of wasted opportunity and sheer incompetence.
Looks like he’s legged it..
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2010/03/06/exclusive-former-labour-chief-steven-purcell-flees-scotland-to-escape-stress-86908-22089395/
Evening all,
Just back from more important things…..
Oh my god! The masters of political polls, ICM highlight what a load of crap the current Yougov daily tracker is. Shock Horror. Will Kellner resign?
221, Rod,
Historically, 4% would be very large for Con-> Lab. Only a little on the large side for Lab-> LD, rather large for Con->LD.
If the overall swing is as large as shown by the headline ICM, signifying a large shift in opinion, but with that large shift in opinion very unevenly laid out demographically (and bearing in mind that most of the key marginals/semi-marginals are high in the relevant demographics), superimposed on a framework of changed boundaries (with estimated results having their own inherent uncertainty), I’d not be shocked to see results over 4% for sd. You are right - I should make clear what the scale of “huge” is. In my mind, “huge” would be:
For Con-Lab swing: 4.0-4.5% (typical is 2.4-3.5)
For Lab-LD swing: 4.5-5% (typical is 3.6-4.0)
For Con-LD swing: 4.25-4.75% (typical is 3.0-3.4%).
173 - nice to see some people with integrity in the red team.
We all know they are going to lose, try and do it with some dignity.
It seems to me that the Conservative vote is pretty solid in the high 30’s and could easily solidify into the 40 region. The changes which occur seem vey much to be betwen Labour and the Lib Dems. In my view whether Cam gets an overall majority depends on the amount of tactical voting unwind in the marginals and that is a very open question at the moment.
I think Clegg has a wonderful opportunity with the Leaders debates - I actually rate him as a far better bet for the medium/long term than Kennedy. I don’t see him taking many voytes from Conservatives but I can se him denting the Labour share and I think people will be fools to underate this guy - and I say that as a wholehearted supporter of David Cameron. Just a shame in my view that his Party will not let him support a minority Tory administration because I think he has an affinity with Cameron that for example Cable doesn’t.
230, 216. Labour have spent money to artificially inflate the GDP. I’m tempted almost not to write this as it’s a very dangerous truth - but we are a bubble economy. Think tulips, think 18th century. The only really good thing about the UK internationally is the City - and the government is busy trying to blame the wrong people there for our problems. The concept that the traders in these banks made all the losses is just wrong. It was the treasurers and the board accountants that had no concept of risk that were the problem. The very same people that the regulator employs to monitor these things - the boring but safe guys.
So to get out of this mess our best (and perhaps only) hope is the City. The finest minds in the world (mainly Grammer school educated) aren’t going to give up the beaches so easily. I entirely agree with the analysis that Osbourne doesn’t really understand all this but compared with Darling (who I think does but is in denial) and Brown ( who doesn’t understand a toffee pudding) - well I know which way only a madman would fail to vote.
Andy Cooke:
“What does this mean for the fight for the C1/C2s? Don’t know, but it supports Nick P’s reports. The C2 demographic has swung far further to the Tories than I’d have thought; the C1 demographic far less. It’s only one poll and very small sample sizes (which are themselves not past-vote weighted), but it’s still rather interesting. It suggests to me:
- The next election will have huge standard deviation of swing.
- The rewind will be very variable from one seat to another, dependant on demographic breakdown. The overall magnitude of rewind will probably be unaffected, but certain demographics of seats might have a (say) 140% rewind; others a (say) 60% rewind.”
C1 = non manual skilled workers
C2 = manual skilled workers
So whay are manual workers swinging much more to the Conservatives than non-manual ones?
Immigration
Someone who works in a factory, building site, in a shop or bar/restaurant can be replaced by an immigrant far easier than someone who sits at a desk all day.
Economy
As in previous recessions it is manual workers who are bearing the brunt. They’re jobs are more likely to be lost and they are also more likely to have reduced income through loss of overtime.
Political effect?
Look at constituencies that have high numbers of non-graduates but still have high owner-occupancy to have the biggest swings. Outer suburbs, middle sized towns, industrial areas. Classic marginal constituencies in fact. Very rich and very poor areas and also rural or inner urban seats should have lower than average swings. These tend to be safe seats though.
223, Patrick R - Never met John Major, but once saw him at very close quarters, a bench away in the Strangers Gallery of the House of Commons during (1st) Iraq War debate in Feb 2003. Was impressed both by his personal charisma (his good looks and VERY nice smile) and his apparent modesty (just sitting in the visitors gallery with the rest of us hoi polloi).
In contrast, Gordon Brown simply cannot compete on the same basis. Am sure he’d outperform Major in other areans. BUT not in terms of personal charisma and impact via short-term meeting or fleeting, close-up view.
Looks like 98% of Icelandic voters have voted to stick two fingers up to their foreign bank investors.
David Cameron’s wife voted Labour in the past..scandal…no really..scandal…
LibDems to push for fixed term parliaments in hung parliament.
Yaaaayyy
Bout bl**dy time.
250, the picture of Brown there is weird. JUst look how his legs are. It’s like he walks like a crab.
255. Well done to them.
My hypothetis based on nothing but guesswork is that the YouGov disloyal Labour category are mainly voting Labour this time.
Remember the loyal/disloyal categorisation is based on 2005 voting paterns of core Labour supporters. So disloyal Labour will be Guardianistas and multiethnic in the main, whilst loyal Labour would be wwc (a big simplication).
Based on what we have heard (NPMP canvassing, different patern of intentions suffifient for YouGov to introduce the categories) this suggests that disloyal Labour are tending to vote Labour, and loyal Labour not.
247 - Kristin March 6th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
very bizarre indeed - he made before the Sundays papers
I actually got to shake hands with John Major when he visited Newry in 1994!
153…”wall to wall coverage last week of Brown and Cameron”???
Brown yes; Cameron hardly appeared on any channel.
196 - “195-Big difference today is that there were no squaddies in the pictures. They were all officers and ANA.”
I noticed that, I also noticed the body language of a number of those present, some could barely bring themselves to look at him.
oops should have read
very bizarre indeed - he made it before the Sundays papers
236. JohnF
“You forgot to mention that we had an additional 1 million people working in manufacturing industry.”
Actually we had an extra 1.7 million people working in manufacturing industry in 1997.
Another one to add to Easterross’s checklist:
In 1997 we were self sufficient in energy.
In 2010 by contrast we are dependent on middle eastern oil and Russian gas.
233 Briband there are probably more traffic cones around now than in 1997 because Labour has made such a mess of giving contracts to their friends that road repairs done a couple of years ago are needing to be redone now. Labour spent £400 million on resufacing the M8 between Glasgow and Edinburgh just 4-5 years ago and they are already starting to do it all over again.
Classic New Labour: Looks shiny on the surface but simple investigation establishes it is wafer thin and there is a mound of sh1te underneath.
256 - I thought this was already common knowledge
256 Did she?
Mrs Cameron was forced to issue a statement last night denying she had ever voted Labour. She said: ‘I did not vote for Tony Blair in 1997 and I have never voted Labour.’
My 252 obviosly ‘grammar’
252, Omnium - Note that EVERY government that can is artificially boosting its economy. From Obama in DC, to Stephen Harper in Ottawa, to what’s his name in Beijing, to your own beloved PM in London. Of course opppositions everywhere (even in China!) are taking their pot shots. BUT do you seriously believe that, if David Cameron was PM today, he and the Tories would NOT be doing the same thing?
looks like its another smear then.
254 Edwina was also impressed with his ‘charisma’.
273 - probably the best political sex scandal in recent times, simply for its sheer unlikelyness
247. His dead eighteen year old friend cant leg it anywhere however. I hope for his sake, that he didnt become ‘friendly’ with this person prior to his eighteenth birthday, as he is in a position of responsibility over the boy = prison sentence.
He seems to be getting a remarkably easy ride so far.
256 - Didn’t Attlee’s wife vote Conservative?
New poll for ICM proves conclusively that they are the only polling organisation remotely “on this planet”, that Lord Ashcroft has the support of 97% of the electorate in his avoidance of his petty tax dues, that Dave Cameron is a man of staggering political acumen with lashings of policies to stick to for the next few days, that a Tory majority of at least 430 is inevitable, and that the last 13 years have been the worst period in British history since Boudicca was …( continue until froth appears on mouth, steam bursts from ears, and so on and so on …)
Seems the MoS is hunting for who Christopher Hitchens bedded.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1255852/So-WERE-Tory-ministers-gay-flings-Christopher-Hitchens-Oxford.html
The Tory MP for Wells in Somerset was a junior environment minister under Mrs Thatcher. ‘David is impenetrably heterosexual,’ says one of his oldest friends. ‘He’s convinced Hitchens made the claims up to attract attention to his book.’
That phrase “impenetrably heterosexual” is rather choice.
Easterross - can you link to the stats on literacy and numeracy for 97 as compared to now? My understanding was that there had been a marked improvement since 1997. As for the hospitals, of course many thousands of people were dying back then because they could not get the treatment they needed in the first place.
The Tories shot their bolt on economic competence back in the late 80s and early 90s. Ken Clarke did a decent rebuilding job at the expense of allowing the country’s basic infrastructure to crumble.
277 Dr. Barbi
You clearly haven’t learnt the first rule of PB club……
(don’t question ICM)……
Churchill’s wife voted Liberal didn’t she?
231 - “You didn’t hear various foreign languages every time you went to a supermarket”
I am often amazed going to a local bootfair which is out in the sticks by the sheer number of foreign language speakers present in such an out of the way place.
Sorry Labour, not many people happy with your cunning plan to flood the country with immigrants.
I was amazed when on seperate occassions some of my non white friends have said that the scale of immigration was too much. One of those is first gen immigrant himself. ( I should add that they brought the subject up themselves).
185 Michelle
I see that the great debate on YouGov party identifiers has totally passed you by.
YouGov as it is now heavily underestimates the NATS as any comparison recently with MORI or TNSS3 would tell you. It may slightly underestimate the Tories and certainly massively overestimates Labour.
“The Tories shot their bolt on economic competence back in the late 80s and early 90s. Ken Clarke did a decent rebuilding job at the expense of allowing the country’s basic infrastructure to crumble.”
As opposed to ruining the economy while still allowing the country’s basic infrastructure to crumble.
Still we had a decade long bubble of property speculation and consumer spending to make up for it.
278. I can’t wait for Hitchens’ memoir. It’s going to be a cracker.
213
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8553316.stm
256, Yokel - And Mrs Atlee was famously a Tory sympathizer and (perhaps) voter.
It happens, even in the best of families. Such as my own!
Plus my guess is that most voters resent people who try to make hay out of such.
BTW, Yokel, hope you enjoy your upcoming trip to Our Nation’s Capital. My suggestion: get yourself an “Up Down” button . . . a notion I first encountered in the prose of Brendan Behan!
279
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7115692.stm
288 - Nothing there about fewer people leaving school now with basic literacy and numeracy skills than in 1997.
278. What a lovely turn of phrase!
287. Explain.
284 - I agree. Labour’s failure to tackle the imbalanced economy and lax regulaiton it inherited from the Major governmeht has been a disgrace. A huge wasted opportunity to turn the UK into something nore akin to our more successful continental neighbours.
Oh dear
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/7386502/MPs-demand-right-to-travel-first-class.html
A certain mp who we are told would eat his own feet if the whips told him to gets a mention, but not as regards rail travel.
292. While Blair learnt from the lessons of the past, it seems you have learnt nothing.
256
And may even consider voting Brown apparently. Its not unknown Clemantine Churchill always voted Liberal, regardless of her husbands change of party.
281 - So did Churchill on a few occasions I imagine.
279: Southam Observer @ 22:20
“My understanding was that there had been a marked improvement [in literacy] since 1997″
SO, I gave you the links back in October last year. HMG’s own figures show that 20% of school leavers are functionally illiterate and in reality more than that are becuase the standards now required at GCSE English or so dreadfully low. You, however, at that time insisted that most schools, especially primary schools, are good.
276 and his son sat as a Tory Peer in the House of Lords did he not as the 2nd Earl of Attlee and Oxford?
279 SO As an HR director and owner of a Recruitment company I see thousands of CVs each year. In the past 5 or 6 years I have grown more and more depressed at the lack of basic understanding of both use of the English language and grammar. Almost without exception the best CVs are presented by students from Central and Eastern Europe for whom English is their 2nd/3rd or even 4th language. However they are obsessed by good grammar.
Was it Oxford or Cambridge University which a couple of months ago announced that they had rejected 33% of applicants to study Pure Maths because their knowledge of mathematics was sub-entry standard notwithstanding that they have pieces of paper which claim they have A or A* “A” levels.
One of the most shocking scandals of the past 13 years has been the way in which Labour has hoodwinked an entire generation into thinking they are brighter academically than those who went before them. In addition by converting every second rate college into a university in order to drive their 50% graduate programme obsession, they have so overstretched the tertiary education system that youngsters are leaving university with £20,000+ debts and finding they are only fit to work in call centres.
If they had not followed this obsession, we would still have youngsters with craft skills and those who are genuinely academically gifted would be able to pursue a proper university education free at the point of delivery, the sort of education which the entire Labour cabinet and more than 50% of the PLP took for granted while inflicting ever increasing financial burdens on youngsters. Can it be a coincidence that the drop-out rate from many of the so called “new universities” is greater than 25%?
Every time I hear some youngster from an inner city comprehensive say s/he would love to go to university but cannot afford it, it makes my blood boil. However as a “victim” of Labour’s vindictive attitude towards ordinary youngsters being given opportunities to excel, in my case courtesy of Dr Vince Cable and his pals in Glasgow Corporation Labour Group 1973-1977 nothing about the past 13 years of Labour attitude to educaton has surprised me.
IF anyone is interested, just type “Allan Glen’s School” into Wiki. You will then understand why I loathe Vince Cable and all the Labour types like him. If he gets his way he will work with Labour to ensure we get another 5 years of the same.
ANy civil servant who proposes/considers this should be sacked immediately and have all their pension rights withdrawn!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/7386834/Shoppers-could-face-VAT-on-food.html
289 etc. - Why haven’t we been sent a replacement troll, this one started malfunctioning pretty much out of the box? Are other sites hogging the better ones or something?
Kalman says 6.0% lead, 0.5% swingback to Labour largest party.
both Labour and Tories fractionally up, LDs fractionally down; 1 seat changes hands between LD and Tory…
Crosby Kalman probabilistic
Con 292
Lab 277
LD 48
SNP 8
PC 5
Oth 2
NI 13
Votes
Con 38.3%
Lab 32.3%
LD 17.3%
Oth 12.1%
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/
294 - I have learned that a country that depends too much on the price of property and the use of credit cards to drive its economy forward is on a hiding to nothing. I wish Blair and Brown had realised this too before it was too late. But just like the Tories, they were happy for it to continue and even encouraged it. We are paying the price now and will do so for a long time to come.
I know, I know…..another Leftie on Ashcroft:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/7387071/The-Ashcroft-saga-shows-why-the-Tories-need-to-embrace-transparency.html
300 - STOP CHANGING THE NUMBERS!!!
Sorry, any attempt at commenting using them is getting stupid.
300 was not aimed at the current 289, you’ll just have to guess who it was now.
Michael Dugher, Gordon Brown’s political spokesman, was recently rumoured to be going for the Labour candidacy in Ashfield, set to be vacated by his former boss Geoff Hoon.
Instead I can reveal that Dugher has just emerged as one of four candidates on the shortlist for Barnsley East, where current MP Jeff Ennis is stepping down. This is a plum of a safe seat, with a notional majority of more than 50 per cent - or 17,000 votes*.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/03/browns-political-spokesman-on-shortlist-for-barnsley-east-seat/
303. Carlotta. I think this is the key passage from your earlier link
According to sources, Lord Ashcroft suspects that one of the reasons he was offered the “long term residence” status a decade ago was because there were up to three others on the new peers’ list – who were either not resident in the UK or who were “non doms” – and they had not been required to become full-time British residents for tax purposes.
Are those Labour names I wonder? Do they REALLY want to push this?
FFS
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1255858/Neglected-lazy-nurses-Kane-Gorny-22-dying-thirst-rang-police-beg-water.html
My brother in law nearly died in there too.
re 279 oh yes Southam of course, silly us. Those nasty Tories flogged the peasants, denied them treatment and ground them into the dust, didn’t they?
Diddums, so you don’t like the Tories but do you have to keep reminding us so pitifully.
301 - Hari Seldon speaks…..
298 - So no stats then. Remember that an 18 year old leaving school this year is from the first intake to have been educated all his or her life under this Labour government. What age are you recruiting generally speaking?
I agree about the universities completely though, but note that no party is committed to reducing their numbers of reintroducing grants and free university education.
231, AR & 282, Floater - and no doubt some locals scowl whenever you cross La Manche and are chatting with your traveling compainions in your Anglo-Saxon argot?
As for newcommers being anti-immigrant, this is a phenonomenon as old as human nature.
For example, note that decendents of famiine Irish, outraged by the discrimination faced by their forefathers & mothers (No Irish Need Apply; buring of the Charlestown convent, etc, etc) were in the forefront in riots against Blacks in mid-to late 19th century & early-mid 20th c America.
Also note that some Italian Americans (for example, Tom Tancredo) are very prominent in the leadership of the new US Know Nothings. Despite the fact that their ancestors were regarded as scum by bigots of previous generations.
Similar thing here in Seattle, where there are plenty of pointy-headed liberals (and not just them) who rail against newcommers (esp. Californicators) on the grounds that they are cluttering up the landscape. Most vocal of these have generally been out (or up) here 10 years or less!
Message is: Draw the Line . . . Right Behind Me!
re 298 I received an email at work last week just saying “Sorry - my bad”. Now I read enough internet forums to know what that means. But in a work email!?
Easterross:
“they have so overstretched the tertiary education system that youngsters are leaving university with £20,000+ debts and finding they are only fit to work in call centres.”
All the better to enslave them.
When everyone starts their working life heavily in personal debt then debt will be a constant and normal part of their life.
There will then be fewer people to complain about governments running up monstrous debts.
Chris A - Yup, they pretty much did do those things. Clearly it gave you a lot of pleasure.
303 – Carlotta, not another leftie – just a very tedious bore.
Learn another tune.
302. The price of property in 1997 was about 6% higher then it was in 1992, when accounted for inflation, means houses during the Major years were not used to drive anything.
Do try again….
re 301 Rod and on those vote figures Andy Cooke says
C 336
Lab 237
LD 44
Tory majority 22
Guess we won’t have long to wait now to see which one of you is talking through your hat.
313 - So when will the Tories be abolishing student loans and university fees?
294.
I’m not sure that’s the case. Politicians of Osbourne’s generation, for whom this is their first economic crisis, must, surely, have had the wool pulled from their eyes. I think the lessons have been learned. The hard part is reversing the addiction to debt and creating thriving new industries (particularly when our educational system is failing and those in Slovenia, India, China are thriving).
291, Yokel - what, you mean explain why I suggest you get “Up Down” button? Think it would be a great conservation piece! Might even win the heart (or at least) amuse a fair colleen or two . . . esp as you are either very near to County Down if not an actual resident.
316 - Because property prices had collapsed in the late 1980s and early 90s, and had not recovered.
BPIX fpr the MoS has a 2 point Tory lead…..
36/34/18
Mixed messages tonight
Sample of over 5000!
318.
“look at the mess we have made, i bet you cant fix it”
re 314 Southam well I didn’t vote form them, but they did give me a job in the NHS. But then how can that be because by 1997 by your reckoning the NHS was only employing 2 men and flea-bitten mangy old spaniel. If you take off the bile-coloured spectacles you’ll see how the country was immeasurably better in 1997 that the mess we’re in now.
D’Anconas article is important, is it Ashcroft or Hagues departure he is preparing us for?
321. Right, so the prosperity of the Major year was *not* driven by property prices. Thanks for the correction, it is encouraging when posters are willing to admit they are an idiot.
SSI
The British people were specifically told that there wasn’t going to be an influx of people from Eastern Europe.
BJ4BW
322
So shall we average them? I seem to remember that BPIX used to give quite large Tory leads once.
Is it a member of the BPC yet? or do we condemn it to the outer darkness.
322. BPIX uses Yougov……
325 - Tim - who can say - But of course what we all really want to know is what are the positive reasons for voting Labour. I’m sure that you are the man to assist in answering this quesion. I await your response with bated breath.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256061/Mrs-Cameron-voted-Labour-Source-suggests-Tory-leaders-wife-voted-Blair–vote-Brown.html
weird - Tories massively ahead in the top 75 marginals and clear in the top 110 marginals but 2 points up nationally….
324 - The prosperity of the Major years is a relative term. People were still recovering from the recession of the late 80s and early 90s, repossessions and negative equity.
328 - Coldstone - speaking of outer darkness - Didn’t you have something to do with boiler fitting when you were employed. If so I have a quesion to ask.
SO
“So when will the Tories be abolishing student loans and university fees?”
Sadly they wont. There should be far fewer, but better funded, students and an end to joke courses.
But when I was at university in the 1990s there were no fees and I came out with more money than when I started - working in the holidays and living within my means helped.
Millions of pounds promised for carers has been diverted to plug NHS debts
Millions of pounds promised for respite breaks for carers has been mis-spent and diverted to plug NHS deficits, an investigation has found
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/7385614/Millions-of-pounds-promised-for-carers-has-been-diverted-to-plug-NHS-debts.html
306 Scott P - that’s the ‘they are all as bad as each other’ line of reasoning - something the voters may agree with…
I think D’Ancona fairly observes:
“The first lesson of the fiasco is that it is pretty pointless to preach the virtues of transparency in government while your own party is being, as Alan Clark would have put it, economical with the actualité……What will bug voters is the sense that the party that aspires to govern us again is up to its old tricks, saying one thing and doing another, looking for loopholes, wearing the ermine but not coughing up tax like the rest of us.”
324 - Was it really better that people were waiting months or even years for operations, and that they were dying before they could have those operations?
BPIX use YouGov as a data source but we don’t know what they do with the data as they never publish tables etc. I also don’t believe they are part of the BPC.
329 says it all really. Though with this lot we wont even get to see the “adjusted” figures will we?
330. I think all this confusion in polling is causing the media morons to go into overload and impending meltdown. It sounds like a load of bollocks!
Conveniently for the MOS BPIX don’t provide their detailed breakdown……
330 Is Mrs Cameron copying voting behaviour of Mrs Atlee and Mrs Churchill?
322 Reading the article it appears to be a Marginals poll but the wording is at best mixed on if the headline 36 - 34 is for the Marginals or a full scale poll, very strange.
Is it just me or is the MoS commentary on that poll utterly incoherent? If the marginal swing is that much stronger than the national swing how can it be “worth” only 13 seats?
And for the difference between national and marginal swing to be that strong wouldn’t Labour have to have surged ahead in other parts of the country?
Is it just me or is the MoS commentary on that poll utterly incoherent? If the marginal swing is that much stronger than the national swing how can it be “worth” only 13 seats?
And for the difference between national and marginal swing to be that strong wouldn’t Labour have to have surged ahead in other parts of the country?
332
I hate to tell you this, but boiler fitting wasn’t my thing. I’d ask for expert advice if I was you. I wouldn’t want to be responsible for blowing you up. Although if you are a Tory ask away.
331. Ok lets go back further, between 1983 and 1997, house prices doubled, which is probably a small increase over inflation, but not massively so. Between 1987 and 1997, the increase was 30% over ten years, again probably slightly below inflation.
So neither Thatcher or Major’s economic policy was driven by out of control property prices.
Lets take another ten year period, 1997 to 2007, here over the space of ten years we see a 210% increase in property prices.
See the difference?
front pages.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Front-Pages-Of-The-National-Newspapers-On-Sunday-March-7-2010/Media-Gallery/201003115568641?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15568641_Front_Pages_Of_The_National_Newspapers_On_Sunday_March_7%2C_2010
336- Yes, it looks like Labour has really whipped the NHS into shape:
“A man of 22 died in agony of dehydration after three days in a leading teaching hospital. Kane Gorny was so desperate for a drink that he rang police to beg for their help. They arrived on the ward only to be told by doctors that everything was under control. The next day his mother Rita Cronin found him delirious and he died within hours. She said nurses had failed to give him vital drugs which controlled fluid levels in his body. ‘He was totally dependent on the nurses to help him and they totally betrayed him.’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1255858/Neglected-lazy-nurses-Kane-Gorny-22-dying-thirst-rang-police-beg-water.html
And this is described as a leading hospital! Imagine how life is in the bad ones.
336 SO very few people died because they couldn’t get operations. Lots of people had to wait longer than they should have had for non life threatening operations. Under Labour we have seen targets skew waiting times according to the medical profession. At least under the Tories we didnt have pre waiting list waiting lists and people being told that if they wanted an appointment they could only phone between 12 and 48 hours before the desired time because the targets didnt allow them to fix the appointment for a further away period.
I also dont remember millions of British citizens being unable to access an NHS dentist which is the case now.
Thousands of people didn’t go into hospital for minor surgery and then die from MRSA and other such illnesses acquired in hospital. I dont remember things like last week’s Staffordshire hospital scandal when the Tories were running the NHS.
343 indeed, it suggests with a 7 point lead in the top 75 marignals, Labour would only lose 41 of them, and 1 point beind over the top 110 marginals, they only lose 42
Utter rubbish
“I have learned that a country that depends too much on the price of property and the use of credit cards to drive its economy forward is on a hiding to nothing…. ”
by Southam Observer March 6th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
That just has to be repeated. SO, an executive in a successful export orientated company (so he has has told us), has now learned that asset inflation and borrowing doesn’t make the country wealthier. FFS!
BJ4BP - yes, understand that a) that was a dumb thing for Gordo (or any other politico) to say; and b) that anti-immigrantion sentiment is both genunine and politically significant.
Though the later point cuts both ways: for example, here in the US Republican pussyfooting with neo-Know Nothings has likely hurt them more than helped them at the polls. Certainly has solified the Democratic hold on California in federal politics.
BUT did Polish pumbers, etc, etc REALLY take bread out of the mouths of British workers? OR did they help redress labor shortages, esp. for jobs that Brits didn’t want?
Methinks anti-immigration sentiment based on jobs in a red herring (or a blue one in UK). That the real bone of contention is cultural angst, for example, the dislike of hearing foreign tongues on bendy-buses and the like.
The Mail on Sunday headline has got to be the funniest I’ve seen for a long time.
Incidentally, I had my first experience of the NHS for a while today. Went to A&E with a friend of mine who’d sprained his ankle. In and out in less than an hour, x-rays and everything, and there was an acceptably foxy nurse as well.
Although I once spent 4 hours in the aforementioned A&E department on a Saturday night, so it’s 1-1 as far as I’m concerned.
336 “Was it really better that people were waiting months or even years for operations, and that they were dying before they could have those operations?”
Dying - you mean like en masse in Stafford Hospital under Labour?
You mean like all those people contracting MRSA in dirty hospitals….under Labour?
Don’t get me started on the NHS. First hand recent experience in my part of the world is appalling!
306. Carlotta “that’s the ‘they are all as bad as each other’ line of reasoning”
Reading it back, you are quite correct, but what I thought it was hinting at is something along these lines…
Lord Ashcroft. “So I need to become a permanent resident?”
Civil Servant. “Actually no, because Lord’s A, B, and C want to be non-doms”
Maybe not what happened. Maybe too subtle in any case, but I think “he only became a non-dom so as not to upset someone else” would be an interesting twist.
And I would like to see Jack Straw in court. Could be squeaky bum time for Hattie too perhaps
320. I only have to talk over there and it goes down well…though the wounds from the ‘war’ are a bit 50-50.
I’m staying in ye oldie Alexandria on recommendation of a friend in VA. Nice and easy to get the metro into Washington itself. They insisted that its nice, ancient & quaint. God knows what they’d make of here when I could take them up the road to castles dating from the Norman invasion….
348
Crap, there was a dentist crisis back in the early 90’s when an NHS dentist opened in Godalming the queue stretched half a mile.
In 91 one of my sons was due to be admitted to the Royal Surrey, and we were rung up and asked to bring in our own bedding as the hospital had run out.
352. Please explain to me what is the difference between an acceptable foxy nurse and an unacceptable foxy nurse?
re 348 Ahem Easterross no need to exaggerate about thousands of people dying from MRSA - it only undermines the case you’re making.
I don’t know why we’re bothering though. Southam is so warped that he probably thinks life in the Warsaw ghetto was better that Tory Britain.
The good news is the Express have the cure for cancer (again). If they were not allowed to use the words Cancer or Diana, what the fvck would they publish. Who buys the Express?
298 Easteross
Your are muddling your Prime Ministers and Earldoms. Herbert Asquith became Earl of Oxford and Asquith. Clement Attlee a mere Earl Attlee.
Southam, the drive under both Thatcher & Major was to get inward investment, attracting Toyota, Nissan and other manufacturers to the UK, with policies designed to support that. We hear a lot about the closure of the smokestack industries but there was a strong policy to get new investments.
Under Labour we had a policy to attract and build service industries particularly financial services to the detriment of manufacturing. Where Germany retained much of their engineering and other manufacturing we saw the closure of UK plants. The Japanese companies that moved into UK through the 80’s & 90’s closed their plants as cheaper labour and better tax regimes won out.
You talk of following the European model, but that means acceptance of high stuctural unemployment, something the UK has never accepted as a price worth paying. Its not Europe that are our competitors, Chris Patten came back from Hong Kong envigorated by the lessons of Hong Kong enterprise but instead of building on those ideas the UK went down the route of cheap foreign capital driving a consumer boom, borrowing more individually and as a state year after year.
The cheap money didn’t get invested in better transport, in new industries but was borrowed to fund new houses, second homes in Cornwall or Spain, new kitchens with German fridges and ovens, granite worktops or frittered away on meals out in new restaurants, holidays. Fine when money was cheap and plentiful but where now?
351. Can the Independent genuinely now be considered a newspaper? I presume they pay their journalists above the going rate, why else would you work for them?
I think i would rather they hadnt cut the tree down they used to make the paper, and i could go and find it, and stare at the bark for half an hour. I am sure the content would be more original and interesting.
349. Indeed. If the Tories have a 7% lead in their top 75 marginals then they’ll win all 75 and if a 1% lead in their top 110 they’ll win nearly all of them and thus (probably) a majority…
Also the nationals and marginals simply don’t tally - must be a mistake somewhere in the reporting….
350 - I learned it a long time ago - way before either of our two main political parties. Which is probably why my company is still exporting and still hiring.
356. Coldstone.
No chance of that happening in my town. There hasn’t been a dentist taking on NHS patients here for over 5 years. We only got NHS treatment because we registered with a dentist 20 miles away…..
Don’t you just love the availability of NHS treatment….
356 - Coldstone - as an NHS employee (down in Worthing) I can provide a whole bunch of stories about ‘Labour’s NHS’ the low moral of the workforce and the politicisation of the service.
That would of course mean that you would have to give me advice on fixing my boiler…..
359
Suburban housewives with perms and floral wallpaper. And curry houses.
If any of our LibDEm friends are around, what is the liklihood of the LibDem candidate in Luton South standing aside and endorsing La Rantzen? They did it in Wyre Forest didnt they?
361 - I agree with a lot of that, though not so much on the Thatcher and Major years. I see them as the ones in which we set out on the ruinous path that has led to where we are now.
I think MPs should, once the election is over, fund a massive party for journalists because said journalists are bending over backwards to prove to the people that their are individuals that are more stupid and more disingenuous than the poltical class (and theat is the media class).
Politicians really should say thank you…..
363 yep, the only way that 36-34 figure could be accurate with the marginals as stated is either Labour are storing up a landslide of votes in safe seats, or the Tories are collpasing in their safe seats.
40 in the top 75 marginals, but 37 in the top 110 marginals and 36 nationally?
lol
363.
Or…and perhaps we will never know; thorough marginal polling could demonstrate that the Tories could get a majority on a 2pt national lead in the same manner that Labour won a majority of 66 on a 3pt lead
broken sleazy tories on the slide.
BPIX:
CON 36
LAB 34
LIB 18
Hung Parliament, Labour 10 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
Thanks Ashcroft.
369. Right, so the Thatcher and Major years are responsible for a credit boom and a housing boom, despite neither Major or Thatchers governments being driven by them.
BPIX:
CON -3
LAB +4
LIB nc
Thanks Hague.
369 Southam’s thought process:
I beleve it therefore it must be true.
Smeary Gobble - Links, spins and lies!
366
My wife was working in the NHS in the 80/90’s I can assure you it wasn’t a bowl of cherries then.
I seem to remember that when the ‘Casualty’ programme first started on the Beeb it was strongly attacked by the Tories and their press allies as being unrealistic. Then NHS workers started to contact the press and say it was true to life.
Still when Mad Dan Hannan is minister of health, Donal Blaney his chief adviser, we won’t have to worry, there won’t be one.
Easteross - you are not a stupid man but your MRSA stuff would lead us to believe that you are.
As I suspected might happen, it looks like election night might not have been saved after all. (See Iain Dale and/or ConservativeHome for details).
That’s why I’ve been keeping my list of Tory targets going with the latest information:
http://bit.ly/bKEYBv
360 Thanks Seth and having checked it is the 3rd Earl Attlee who sits/sat as a Consevative Peer.
The Asquith lot of course are responsible for Helena Bonham-Carter who is great granddaughter of the Liberal PM who was 1st Earl Oxford and Asquith.
That MoS article is incoherant but the key point it unwittingly makes is that it is further evidence of Conservative overperformance in marginal seats with an extra swing of 2-3%.
The polling industry is making itself look ridiculous. They need to get a grip.
Poor old Gabble is going to pull his plonker off soon if they don’t stop sending mixed messages.
Polling Industry be kind to Gabble before its too late….
374
374.369. Right, so the Thatcher and Major years are responsible for a credit boom and a housing boom, despite neither Major or Thatchers governments being driven by them.
Really! you obviously were’nt there.
379 Luckily for you tim, expensive private healthcare will spare you and family any NHS horrors.
354 Scott P - Entirely plausible hypothesis - ‘no need to rock the boat old chum - you’re part of the club now…’ Trouble is Blair created so many Peers its a faff to go through checking ‘who was born abroad’….
357. There is a level of hotness for those in the caring profession beyond which one might confuse them for extras in a Carry On film.
Gabble
You sound a little desperate tonight.
Is it dawning in the bunker that Brown has bottled it yet again?
He really should have called an election for March 30th.
383
356, Yokel - has been too long since I’ve visited DC, but it’s always been a favorite of mine. BTW, the cabs are great, though fact that they’ve ditched the zone system suqs. (Can still remmber how when I was a kid, a Black cab driver chased my dad several blocks . . . to return a camera that he’d accidentially left behind.)
Staying in Alexandria and taking the Metro sounds like a good plan to me, Alexandria has some charm (if your in the right parts) and the Metro is very convenient, esp to the Mall.
Only other tip I can give, is go to Adams-Morgan (aka Madam’s Organ) section and find a good ethnic restaurant; the best are places that are still trying to establish themselves, so the prices are reasonable!
Am sure that your accent opens doors. As for the wounds, for most Americans (and that includes plenty of Irish heritage) the puzzler is, why after so long is this still a burning (or at least smoldering) issue. Common view over here is, get over it.
Of course we are hardly consistent in following our own advice!
Anyway, hope your oration is a success, and have a great trip. And if you don’t, let me know . . . and I’ll write to me Congressman . . . Jim McDermott!
380
How do the marginals compare to safe seats?
366 - No I’m sure it wasn’t wonderful back then. But that was then and nothing I can truthfully comment on. All I know is what I have experienced in the last 10 years during my service and it’s not exactly great now. The amount of money that has been indiscriminately thrown at the NHS and totally wasted is verging on the unbelievable. And that is the primary reason why so many people are now likely to lose their jobs. Including me!
At least one of the polls tonight is a massive rogue. Which one(s)?
Personally, I still regard ICM as the gold standard.
378 Coldstone none of us are suggesting that the NHS was anything like perfect before 1997. However considering the tens of billions of pounds Brown has spent and the tens of billions more he has put on the never never, such improvements as have been seen are most certainly not value for money. However the doctors who got 40% pay rises for working shorter hours clearly wouldnt be complaining.
The NHS has always been important to me and my family. Although I pay for private health insurance, I have never gone private for anything except an ENT examination many years ago when I thought I was about to lose my voice and was in rehearsals for Mozart’s Requiem at the time.
“A Sunday Times YouGov poll today discloses that 55% believe the row over the donor’s tax status has damaged the Conservatives.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052551.ece
Ho-hum
395. Whatever helps you through the night.
Why are people responding to Gabbles post, he never posts back.
Do we know if James Gordon Brown will have returned to London before 12 noon on Wednesday or does he have urgent meetings to attend in Kuwait, Saudi, Cyprus, Greece (to advise them on how to lead the world out of recession), Germany, France and Iceland.
Brown being accused of making party political points in his letter of condolensce to the family of Martin Day’s friend murdered last weekend.
395.
55% of people cannot name their own MP, do you think they can name Lord Ashcroft?
Gobble – For goodness sake man (assuming you are one of course) stop the linky linky stuff and give us an original perspective. Tim seems incapable of answering the question so what are your top reasons to persuade the voters to give Labour a further term in office. What’s the Gobble pledge card?
399.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the average voter just sees Ashcroft as part of the whole expenses scandal, affecting all parties.
387 All female nurses are hot foxes.I never have a bad word for them.
Ah, THIS is why they are gunning for Ashcroft…
LORD ASHCROFT, the billionaire Tory donor, will quit frontline politics after the general election and plans to reinvent himself as a media tycoon.
Friends of the Conservative party deputy chairman say he is planning a “big deal” to make him a player in the online news and information sector.
Ashcroft, who is poised to step down from his post as head of the Tories’ campaign in marginal seats, already has interests in two political websites.
However, it is understood that he is planning to make an investment that could lead to him going head-to-head with the internet sites of national newspapers and the BBC.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052622.ece
399. Yeah, I believe his name is Lord Ashcroft.
395. Further, i was in the company of a couple of dozen conservative councillors at the beginning of last week, about six of them could name lord ashcroft, and only two of them knew who he was and his position in the party.
Sunday Times push-polling?
395, Easterross - think that you and you debaters tonight are making excellent points.
Also think you’ve hit a HUGE nail right on the head with this particular comment, first para. Namely, why does it appear that the very significant investment made in NHS since 1997 is NOT reflected in an equally significant improvement?
Makes one shudder to think what things would be like without that investment!
Isn’t the crux of the matter the general Anglo-American inability to control health care costs? Kind of like debt peonage! Speaking of health, would make a parrot puke!!!
395 - Wasn’t that the loaded question someone reported a few threads back?
403.
So Ashcroft is going to buy politicalbetting.com?
2 point lead. Shome mishtake shurely. My tax-avoidance expert assures me the lead is at least 36% and he should know as he used to commission VAT-free polls for the Ashcroft Charity Trust in Belize.
405. notme: “…about six of them could name lord ashcroft, and only two of them knew who he was and his position in the party.”
Not dissimilar to the shadow cabinet, then?
394
I agree it should certainly be better, but the NHS is still better than it was before ‘97.
I don’t agree with Hannan, but I applaud his honesty, what he is saying is what the majority of Tory MP’s really, really believe, but don’t have the guts to say so.
411. touche………
I think Brown should have gone to the polls at the end of February. March at the latest.
He clearly doesn’t play poker. He has been short stacked on chips for a long time and looked to be out out with the washing.
He won a few hands and surprisingly found that he had a betting window of opportunity. But the blinds are about to go up big time and he has folded his best hand.
Oh Gordon!!
Gobble - come on, 5 positive reasons to vote Labour. I can tell your tempted……..
Sir John Chilcot, sounding ever more like Private Godfrey from Dad’s Army, starts by offering Brown the opportunity to say something gracious about the dead. He takes a breath and says he’s sad. He says “sad” quite a lot — it’s a small and childish word that rattles around the room — and then he wades through a prepared statement of regret and gratitude for our gallant fighting men. It chugs along with a turgid, leaden awkwardness. While style and delivery are ephemeral and really shouldn’t matter, it’s difficult to divine any sense from something this malformed and clotted.
He refuses to make eye contact. His bitten fingers are laced, apparently to stop each other going off and throttling something. There is about him a restrained sense of bruised entitlement and pique. Having done his best for the memory of the servicemen and the civilians (ours, not theirs) who died, he goes on to explain that he was at the heart of the decision-making, he was in every loop, at every important meeting — except the ones that mattered, when Blair met George W Bush.
Brown has to appear to have been in power while at the same time not responsible, so he insists that diplomacy was the answer right up to the minute it wasn’t. While claiming he had made money available to adapt tanks for the desert months earlier, he talks in long, unravelling assertions. The stenographer says he is very difficult to write down. I watch her mime his words, searching for a full stop.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052383.ece
412. coldstone: the NHS is still better than it was before ‘97.
I should bloody well hope so, with all the debt that’s been racked up on its behalf.
405 Jack Peterson
Good one. Wasted on Tories I should think - they don’t do “humour”.
412. I doubt it. Most Tory MPs would be keen to change how the NHS works, but they arent going to get rid of it, its like saying the majority of Labour MPs would have been quite happy for the soviet union in the eighties to come in and take over the country.
That MoS article is strange. It seems to say that the national swing is 2.5%, the swing in marginals 0-10% is averaging 6% and the swing in marginals 10-15% is only averaging 0.5% (or so I read the average lead of 12% being dragged down to 1% with the addition of the 10-15% marginals). That’s … weird.
On the face of it, the Tories should then make 80+ seats progress.
-rereads article-
Aha! I think I’ve got it. They mention the UNS giving the “Conservatives 259 (up 66)”. That’s not so - it would be up 49, from the nominal figures.
That could be the source of the confusion - they’re looking at total increases, have come out with a figure of 80 or so - and have added it to the actual current seat totals (after chosing Speaker, Deputy Speaker and withdrawal of whip from a couple of people. They’ve got a starting point of 193) rather than the nominal ones for the next election (214). They should be coming up with a figure in the mid 290’s for the Tories (which would be coherent). Would mess up their headline, though.
If they think that 259 seats is “up 66″ and the Tories are well ahead in the 75 most marginal seats, then winning all 75 would be “up nine beyond that”. In reality, it would take them from 214 to 289 seats.
One more from the rather strangely swing-resistant 10-15% marginals puts them on 290 seats. Details on the Con/LD swings aren’t present, but they say “up 3 seats” (which surprises me - unless there’s some double counting going on).
If they go from 214, add 79 (13 more than the 66 the writer thought UNS gives), you get 293. (which would be about a 70% rewind). Or to put it another way, despite the rather bizarre findings in the 10-15% marginals, that 2% lead would make the Tories the largest party (instead of 56 seats behind, as UNS would predict).
Assuming I’m right about what’s gone on in that article - but it does seem the only way to make it coherent.
413 - Notme. I know, he’s good isn’t he?
Perhaps Icelander should borrow (oops!) that old banner that used to hang from Belfast City Hall, with one amendment:
“Rejkavik Says No!”
Of course the Ulsterpersons borrowed the idea from the Hungarians:
“Nem, Nem, Soha!”
Which is Magyar for “No, No, Never” - their answer to the Treaty of Trianon. Not very effective, but clever!
Oh dear
A leaked official analysis of the Iraq war has revealed that the Treasury tried to block army plans to send a full division, contradicting Brown’s evidence to the Chilcot inquiry. “Throughout the planning process there was much debate as to whether the UK should commit a division or brigade-sized land force,” according to the internal army report.
“The army urged strongly that a division was an appropriate size. However, discussion continued through much of the planning process, principally on the grounds of cost.”
In the end a compromise was reached, according to the report: “The division was effectively capped at about 18,000 ranks. Risk was taken in the order of battle to maintain this arbitrary target.”
Fox said the document left Brown’s credibility “shot to pieces”. He said: “It’s increasingly clear why the service chiefs were furious with Gordon Brown’s testimony.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052601.ece
ICM, YouGov, BPIX. It’s a split jury, but the majority verdict is -
(*Puts on Canadian accent*)
Another terrrr-ible night for the Conservatives.
406 notme
Could they name their own names?
419. Andy.
Would you mind telling me if you have any party allegiance?
Also, do you have any General Election bets in play?
Some light relief in the Hate Mail - Class War in Lord Paul’s household:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1256036/How-Sarah-Brown-charmed-Labour-Ashcroft.html
“Lord Paul… talked of his admiration for Gordon Brown. He told them he was ‘the greatest Prime Minister the country has ever seen’ and boasted that he was responsible for persuading Mr Brown not to call a snap Election in 2007″
197. I didn’t know Cathy Ashton was married to Peter Kellner!
There is no truth in the rumour that YouGov’s bent polling results is a “quid pro quo” …..
418 @ 23:54
Andy,
It could just be that the MoS journalist hasn’t got a clue what he is talking about. Occam’s razor and all that. My money is on the aricle is just complete b*llocks.
423. You assume everyone hangs on the every word of political commentators like we do on here. Councillors are, by their nature more politically aware then the average person, and even the majority of them had no clue who he was, what he did or why it was a ‘bad thing’.
I doubt they have heard of, or care about what a ‘non dom’ is.
422. James Kelly.
Utterly risible.
422. James Kelly, old chum. I’m probably just being frightfully dense, but can you explain the reason for the Canadian accent?
Hidden in the SamCam Labour voter story are the BPIX figures. The story seems to be Ashcroft’s impact on the marginals. It’s the bit that Gabble didn’t mention.
A BPIX poll for The Mail on Sunday shows Lord Ashcroft’s spending spree on marginal seats has had an effect. Compared to the Tories’ two per cent lead nationally, they are seven points ahead in the 92 marginal constituencies targeted by him.
But BPIX pollster Professor Paul Whiteley estimates it will give the Conservatives only 13 more seats than they would have won based on the national figures.
And the lack of enthusiasm for the Tories is noticeable when the number of marginals is increased to 138 seats – the second band of target seats currently held by Labour or the Liberal Democrats needed to win a Tory majority. Then the ‘Ashcroft Effect’ vanishes.
Unlike previous marginal polls, the BPIX survey compares the difference between the parties’ national ratings with those in marginal seats. A total of 5,655 people took part – five times the normal sample.
The national figures show the Tories on 36 points, Labour 34 and the Liberal Democrats on 18. If repeated in a General Election it would give Labour 314 seats (32 down on their present total), Conservatives 259 (up 66) and Lib Dems 45 (down 18), resulting in a hung parliament.
Lord Ashcroft, who is under fire from Labour after admitting last week that he is non domiciled and does not pay tax on his foreign earnings, has given £5million to the Tories in ten years.
However, when BPIX tested the ‘Ashcroft Effect’ in marginals the results were mixed for his party.
In 75 Labour-held seats where the Tories are in second place and up to ten per cent behind, David Cameron’s national lead over Gordon Brown leaps from two points to seven.
But Professor Whiteley says that this gains the Tories only an extra nine seats. When the number of Labour-held seats is extended to 110 constituencies where they are up to 15 per cent ahead, the Tory lead falls to just one per cent. Here, the ‘Ashcroft Effect’ is worth just one additional seat.
The same trend occurs in 28 seats where the Tories are out to topple the Lib Dems.
The ‘Ashcroft Effect’ results in a net benefit of three more seats where the Lib Dems are up to 15 points ahead of the Conservatives.
If the survey is correct, it brings the total number of Tory gains from his £2million campaign to 13.
Professor Whiteley of Essex University said: ‘The figures suggest the Ashcroft Effect is more modest than the Tories might hope.’
• BPIX interviewed 5,655 people on Thursday and Friday.
Read more: http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1256061/Mrs-Cameron-voted-Labour-Source-suggests-Tory-leaders-wife-voted-Blair–vote-Brown.html
430. AndrewG.
He thinks he’ll be taken seriously if he doesn’t come across as a chippy Scot.
What’s a “quid pro quo”?
A pound for a favourable quote - on polling figures?
I wonder what proportion of a YouGov sample, when forced to make a choice, would agree with the phrase ‘Gobble is a plonker’?
427 Bournville Observer
I didn’t know the Bride Of Dracula was married to Dracula
430. Andrew, it was one of Martin Day’s fixations when he used to post here more regularly. He reckons that on election night Professor Anthony King always says “a truly terrrr-ible night for the Conservatives”, regardless of the actual results. In fact, having seen the replays of the 1983 and 1987 election programmes, I can testify that there was plenty “terrrr-ible nights for Labour” to be heard!
In case I’m missing out the crucial detail, Anthony King is Canadian.
OK, bedtime. I won’t be losing any sleep over YouGov and its dodgy weightings - and certainly not over BPIX, the pollster who can’t be arsed [(c) OGH]…
422 James
Quality over quantity any day. Oh and by the way the ‘quantity’ doesn’t rate the SNP much either.
Me I go for quality every time…..
431. Seth O. Logue
I would be wary about drawing any conclusions from the reported poll results. The numbers do not make any sense. If the Tories were as far ahead in the Labour marginals as suggested they would win most of them.
432 Seth O
So you are saying Labour 314 seats, Tories 259. Not clear whether you think this good or bad?
429/432. LS - I’ll take all this special attention as the backhanded compliment it is.
Labour NHS at work.
Ministers pledged £150 million to allow those looking after sick, infirm and elderly relatives short periods away from their duties, to prevent them reaching “breaking point”.
…Now research has revealed that less than a quarter of the funding promised has been spent on respite care to allow carers some time off.
In total, almost £40 million of the first year’s £50 million fund was diverted, and soaked up by NHS deficits and bureaucracy, according to data disclosed under a Freedom of Information request.
…Carole Cochrane, chief executive of The Princess Royal Trust for Carers, said: “We are appalled that even this tiny pledge to the ordinary people who keep the NHS afloat with their vast caring contributions could not be honoured.”
You have to wonder if any money Labour promises actually does get to the right place, or if it is used in a useful way, or is in fact just a re-announcement of a prior budget.
391 - the marginals are slightly more likely to declare on the night, as things stand at the moment.
411 out of 650 seats are confirmed to be counting on the night = 63.2%, comprising:
(a) 134 out of 200 top Tory target seats = 67.0%.
(b) 277 out of 450 other seats not included in the Tories’ top 200 targets = 61.6%.
438. Jsfl - Oh, it’s been a very mixed picture for the SNP recently, both in subsamples and in full-scale polls. I’d more than settle for the most recent YouGov subsample, or the most recent Mori full-scale poll, to be the actual result.
SPOOF FLASH SPOOF FLASH SPOOF FLASH
Labour supporter caught reacting to the latest BPIX national results…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJyiPF_gAhw
Seth O. Logue
I don’t think it’s fair to paste virtually the whole article on here.
A taster’s OK but the original website deserves the visits.
Anthony King wrote a chapter in a study of the 1992 election entirely based on the view that the UK had become, like Swedan and Japan, a country of one-party (Conservative) government. Two weeks after publication the Tories were shafted for a generation by the ERM debacle.
444. Well if you are that easily pleased when they are weighting against you fair enough……
The tory lead will be gone in a couple of weeks,and thats before Dave tells the British people he wants fox hunting back…JUST SMELL THAT COFFEE…giggle giggle
435. Yes, not so much “the beauty and the beast”, but rather “the beast and the beast”.
447. Yes, I’ve always thought that he gets a bit carried away with his own rhetoric. As early as the 1987 results programme he was predicting that the Conservatives would remain the party of government into the new millennium, which was an extraordinary hostage to fortune given that they had to win at least two, or possibly even three, more elections in a row to make that happen.
445 - it will be this when the election results come in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5D2mP8ho28
446. Why?
The paper allows cut and paste and adds their link (the link included in Seth;’s post is a Mail group innovation) at the end of it automatically. If they are willing to permit it, who are you to dictate otherwise…….
448. Jsfl - Somebody’s clearly getting it wrong in the world of Scottish polling, but I genuinely don’t know who it is, and I’m sure it’s cock-up rather than conspiracy.
449. Johnny Farter, smell that bullshit giggle giggle……
439 SLAM
I am not drawing any conclusions. I am exposing the MoS’s and BPIX’s conclusions.
Frankly I find the article confusing, illogical and flawed in its conclusions.
Now I have had the chance to read Andy Cooke’s informed and logical comments, I believe we have yet another poll that seems to ask more questions than it answers.
Do BPIX publish datasets? Their website is “under construction”. Hardly a confidence builder.
454. James
I agree its one hell of a cock-up and unlike you I believe it is Kellner and Co….
449 - Johnny Carter - Well if the painted rats need exterminating anyway why can’t some folks have some fun whilst doing so?
In the meantime what are your top five reasons why everyone should vote Labour?
Brown’s attempt at airbrushing Cameron
Mandrake hears that one of the Prime Minister’s officials telephoned the British embassy in Kabul before the Conservative leader visited troops in Helmand Province in December to request that it did not co-operate with him.
“The aide made clear that Cameron’s trip should not be a success,” says my man in the Number 10 bunker. “He said there should be no ‘media availability’.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7386221/How-Gordon-Brown-tried-to-ambush-David-Camerons-visit-to-Afghanistan.html
Looking at Essex Professor Paul Whiteley’s conclusions, I would advise him not to risk any of his money on political betting.
446 Gabble
I accept your criticism in general, but fair comment demanded that the conclusions be copied in full. Reducing further would have distorted the workings which led to the conclusions I was exposing.
For those that like gossip there is still the “story” of SamCam ‘maybe but not really’ voting for Blair in 1997. Follow my link and you will be titillated.
The torys will have a NEW leader by May 20th,Yes the one and only David Davis.SMELL THAT COFFEE….
460. WH ydo these Profs not realise all they are is tame pu$symeat to the media….
462 - bizarre
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Police-warned-Steven-Purcell-about.6130356.jp
On 12 May last year, Purcell held a “private meeting” in his office in City Chambers with SCDEA officers. The unit was set up specifically to probe cases of organised crime and major drug dealing. It is understood that Purcell’s own activities were not the focus of the police enquiries. Rather they were concerned that, as the head of the council, he should not leave himself exposed to criminal gangs in the city.
Shortly after the interview, Purcell moved flat, leaving the district of Yoker, where he had lived for most of his life, as part of a symbolic attempt to “start afresh”.
“Lord Ashcroft goes from Tory saviour to election liability in marginal seats”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/07/lord-ashcroft-donations-marginal-seats
Please, please, please let him stay.
Kristin, he will be the next tory leader….NAP
462, Labour will be led by that new prophet of socialism, Johnny Carter by May 10th. SMELL THAT COFFEE
ALL SMELL THE
FCARTER462. “The torys will have a NEW leader by May 20th,Yes the one and only David Davis.SMELL THAT COFFEE….”
If you’d said by July, that would be far from impossible. I do wonder what Cameron would do if the Tories fall short of being the largest party.
Labour hid ugly truth about National Health Service (NHS)
DAMNING reports on the state of the National Health Service, suppressed by the government, reveal how patients’ needs have been neglected.
They diagnose a blind pursuit of political and managerial targets as the root cause of a string of hospital scandals that have cost thousands of lives.
The harsh verdict on the state of the NHS, after a spending splurge under Labour between 2000 and 2008, raises worrying questions about the future quality of the health service as budgets are squeezed.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article7052606.ece
There seems to be a lot of bad press on Labour & the NHS recently. On Monday, Panorama will probably be more uncomfortable viewing.
Whiteley is an Essex professor? Academics from there seem to have a track record, I think.
440 Bribrad
Read Andy Cooke’s comments upthread. If you spent more time absorbing knowledge from this site rather than indulging in poorly crafted sarcasm, you might find the means to become rich. This would be the perfect excuse for you to abandon your youthful and misguided political allegiance.
Funny that the Mail on Sunday, which hates Cameron, has figures showing his party down on 36%.
Just what Peter Hitchens wanted.
Dave’s still the man for me. Caught him on tv this morning having to address those dreadful “Welsh” chappies. Despite his obvious distaste at having to visit “Wales” he still managed to waffle vacuously and with utter openness and transparency for a good twenty minutes before the treacherous lefties at Sky managed to deliberately “lose” the link. Typical! What’s more they had the nerve to cross over to “Afghanistan” where the sinister, devious “Brown” had paid a sneaky visit to our troops in a blatant attempt to draw attention from Dave’s speech. It was an obvious “photo-opportunity” to draw the sting from his frankly bonkers and untruthful appearance yesterday at the so-called Chilcot inquiry. No-one was fooled! Typical!
Ok sorry i should have said that he would be 1/5 or even shorter by may the 20th.Cameron would stand down within one week.
466 - Smeary Gobble - links, spins and lies
472 - the truth is the media don’t know what they’re talking about most of the time when it comes to calculating seats, swings, etc.
They can’t even remember about the boundary changes coming into effect sometimes, as this latest MoS report shows.
474. Dr Barbi.
Have you ever thought that you might be able to get a job working for Lord Ashcroft or Andy Coulson in the Conservative Party?
Your attacks on Gordon Brown and the Labour Party are very convincing. I think I will quote them giving you due recognition on all the leftie blogs in the hope that they may see the wisdom of your words…..
anyone watching bear grylls on 521 ?
Ok sorry i should have said that he would be 1/5 or even shorter by may the 20th.Cameron would stand down within one week.
by johnny carter March 7th, 2010 at 12:34 am
I hope you have bet you house on it.
Re 466.
Hows it go
GollumGabble?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJyiPF_gAhw
Kristin i did my cash today at newbury.
sleeping in a tent tonight.
465. Oldnat - I think reading between the lines I can see what they’re getting at, but it’s still an incredibly cautiously worded piece. A pity it wasn’t a Sun exclusive - or maybe they would have refused to run it on the grounds of being “harmful to the forces of unionism”.
479 jsfl
Would I still have to pay tax?
484 James Kelly
It would have been a little too obvious to have called it “Life with the Lyons” (though you are far too young to remember the Radio Show of that name!)
465. I tell ya, it sounds more and more like Barrymore without the pool… I mentioned before, i hope his special friend who died, was not special before his eighteenth birthday, as its of the jail for mr Percy.
487 - weird story that he will be in South America for up to a year, I mean that’s running away big time.
487 notme
I have no idea whether Scots Law is the same as English Law in that regard.
We need answers Scotsman
Mr Purcell can withdraw from public life if he so wishes, that is his right. But as he does so the questions surrounding his departure will not disappear with him. The questions must be answered, otherwise conspiracy theories, allegations, suspicions and half-truths will mire Glasgow to such a point that it produces paralysis, and all Mr Purcell’s hard-fought for reforms will disappear, engulfed by the muddy slide.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/We-need-answers.6130328.jp
NOTW gives out a bit more info.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/scottish/
488 Kristin
I think the story was “Southern Hemisphere”.
489. God damn it, your lot insist on having a distinct legal system….
Well, if he was in England, he would get a custodial, if he had indulged in such actions, and probably ten years on the sex offenders register.
According to this site:
http://www.sexualhealthscotland.co.uk/relationships/sex-and-the-law/
The law is similar, pokey for him…
491. Ah yes, that’s a bit more like what I had in mind!
492, thanks I stand corrected.
447 Yup and hence ZNL needing a con-man leader who’d completely transform the electorate before the Tories could recover from the ERM.
484 - have the Sunday Times backed away?
Joan McAlpine a couple of hours ago had:
Tomorrow the wait is over. The council tax payers of Glasgow, who have read strange, coded stories about Steven Purcell’s health all week, might finally get to hear what all the fuss is about. I am not one for cybernat conspiracy, but if ever a story justified it, this is the one. The press coverage of the Purcell affair – apart from in The Scotsman – has been pathetic. I will look at this in more detail tomorrow in my Sunday Times column – which explains why I believe this story – though clearly a personal tragedy – also has profound public implications. Our paper also have a great Focus news feature which shines a light on the murky Labour establishment of councillors, lawyers, quangocrats, property speculators, car dealers and nightclub owners who still exercise enormous – but often invisible – power in the West of Scotland.
now says:
Tomorrow the wait is over. The council tax payers of Glasgow, who have read strange, coded stories about Steven Purcell’s health all week, might finally get to hear what all the fuss is about. I am not one for cybernat conspiracy, but if ever a story justified it… The press coverage of the Purcell affair - apart from in (note: Edinburgh based) The Scotsman - has been pathetic. I will look at this in more detail tomorrow in my Sunday Times column - which explains why I believe this story - though clearly a personal tragedy - also has profound public implications.
473 Seth O
Resent the “poorly crafted”. You love it really.
488. There is also some big corruption issue with the Strathclyde Transport Partnership, this is the organised crime bit..
I cant understand why the press are glossing over this story. If this was happening on a london borough we would be sick to death of it by now, with all the players being as famous as that woman who buggered off to Israel having beaten Labour at their own game when it comes to manipulating social housing.
Is it really true that the Great One was only in Afghanistan for an hour. Someone suggested so tonight and I said it was unlikely to be that short after an 18 hour round trip.
493 notme
Thanks. It’s not something I’ve ever needed to know!
501. You old dog, you are too modest…
497 marcia
Dammit! I’ll have to buy the paper now!
From the NotW
Another source revealed: “Steven was asked, bluntly, ‘Is there a photograph or video of you somewhere that could be used to hurt you?’ And he said he did not know.”
Murky indeed.
oldnat
I have recently been contacted by His Excellency the Ambassador to the Court of St James for Moravia. His Excellency has noted that I am “acquainted with a certain Oldnat of pb.com and the Isle of Arran” and “that I have on occasion had cordial intercourse on matters political and historical”.
His Excellency asked if I might bring to my acquaintance’s attention the current status of the relationship between the peoples of Moravia and Bohemia within the Czech Republic. He further asked whether I might contrast, for the benefit of Mr Oldnat, the Moravian-Bohemian relationship and that existing between the Czech nationalities and the Slovaks. His Excellency believes that Prague and Brno have more to offer London and Edinburgh as a model than Prague and Bratislava.
I gave assurances to His Excellency that I would pass on his comments at the very next available opportunity. Hence this post.
504. Murky, but they are skirting around the issue. There is obviously a massive story, involving drugs, corruption, death, sex and video tapes, yet all we get is kid gloves.
SSI:
I’m half looking forward to it, half wondering why I booked it. Washington is one place in the USA that I haven’t been. I’m a crap flyer, despite having been pretty much around the World. I find it so mundane, they don’t feed you enough, after the first movie you feel the boredom kick in so really have to entertain yourself.
What I really want is a little tea-maker of my own by my seat and a packet of biscuits…
506 - I think the death will prove to be a sad and unfortunate coincidence. The corruption, whether just theoretical or real will run and run. As a Glasgow council tax payer it reeks.
508
Tell us more …
151 Your general comments are highly encouraging from a Tory perspective, but I wouldn’t exactly call Gt Yarmouth a Lab vs Con marginal - the bookies have the Tories at around 1/4 to win this seat.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Steven-Purcell-Fall-of-a.6130367.jp
Is the Scotsman the only paper reporting this ?
508
Hob Nobs? Jaffa Cakes?
508
Hob Nobs? Jaffa Cakes?
The goldfish bowl that is Glasgow is slowly imploding, be it SPT,Glasgow council, and even it’s football players intertwined with local gangsters.
What it really needs is Journalists from outside Scotland to take up the story.
Come on London do your bit for the union.
514
Ginger biscuits?
Can anyone help with my genuine query at 500 about Brown’s time spent in Afghanistan. I can find nothing on the web to confirm or deny.
It seems unlikely.
Those sort of round ones with jam and a hole in the middle?
517 - bribrad - I hear Mumsnet is the place to be when considering biscuits.
505 Seth O. Logue
Arran is but my second residence. Brodick Castle was a useful pied a terre at one time as Ms Nat was able to use the grand piano for her practice.
Please tell his Excellency that his model of the city in the south-east of his country as a model for London’s new status is one I will seriously consider.
517 Witan
He landed at 06:38 hours and took off exactly 2hhrs 12.93 seconds later. (local time)
517 Witan
My mistake, it was actually 2hrs 1m 12.93s
Nytol
looks like Brown won the argument..
Darling - No new cuts in spending.
ALISTAIR DARLING will refuse to bow to calls for more aggressive spending cuts in his budget this month and will stick to fiscal plans set out last year.
The chancellor’s intransigence could put further pressure on the pound. Nervousness over a hung parliament and Britain’s ailing public finances drove down sterling last week. Economists fear the lack of new plans to tackle the deficit will do nothing to ease pre-election uncertainties in markets.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article7052557.ece
Usually I’m to the right of centre on law and order issues, but I have to say that I don’t like the whole tone and atmosphere of the current situation regarding Jon Venables’ recall to custody. I think a certain amount of leniency is acceptable given that the boys were only 10 years old at the time of the crime.
There’s a real problem here, because you cannot both have an open trial for his new alleged offence and at the same time hope to retain his anonymity, because every serious court case involving a person of his age and gender will be being watched like a hawk. Holding it in an usual location like Carlisle or something won’t stop people finding out in the internet age.
All Tories gone to bed? Lightweights!
I thought the Screws was supposed to have the full lowdown on Purcell today. Instead they just have yet more vague hints. This story is to the Scottish press as blood is to a stone.
@526 - rullko, the Times story hasn’t appeared either.
BPIX poll for the MoS:
A total of 5,655 people took part – five times the normal sample.
The national figures show the Tories on 36 points, Labour 34 and the Liberal Democrats on 18. If repeated in a General Election it would give Labour 314 seats (32 down on their present total), Conservatives 259 (up 66) and Lib Dems 45 (down 18), resulting in a hung parliament.
OUCH, BIG OUCH!
No prizes for guessing which poll will be featured on Marr, Sky, etc, etc on Sunday morning.
508.Kristin, I think the good folk of Glasgow will greet any news of this nature with as much surprise as anyone telling them the Pope Catholic?
529 - sadly Christina, you are right on that one. Goes back decades, City Chambers turning green is one example.
528.Peter, good luck with getting the details of this poll. But again, all feeds into the narrative of a hung Parliament.
530.Kristin, as a kid visiting the relatives down in the Central belt, I learnt the words council and Labour very early.
Rullko, there will have been legal reasons as to why papers are not printing what they know about Purcell.
Even with a labour media bias in Scotland, the true story is so hot they cannot ignore it.
Remember labour pollies have been in cahoots with the big businessmen in Glasgow for 50 years or more. Plenty of information ready to be released, has been for years, but there will be frantic attempts to shut it down.
People have resigned before and the media has whitewashed it away, and some have even come back again.
One only calls in defamation layers if they are worried something is going to come out.
If Purcell gets to Oz as a 37 year old he is too old to work, he would have to apply and that would take some time, and so must travel on a tourist visa.
Presumably he likes cruising around and seeing new places. One day Yoker, the next Broomhill. The next Sydney?
Talking about Sydney, can I suggest that you all watch Underbelly when it is shown on a Monday on STV. It is factual. It shows the link in Oz between Drugs, Corruption, Police and Politicians. A link that is still in place in most states.
Whether Glasgow operates similarly to the old Labour party of New South Wales I do not know, but I know a man who does know and he is leaving pretty damn quick to avoid further discussions.
The MoS seems to be in very anti-Tory mode today. This close to a GE, it really does now seem that they may be about to do the previously unthinkable.
God help their circulation figures!
Cynical me, I can only think that the thought of the SNP picking up votes and seats off the back of this information in Glasgow is what is stopping the information being released.
Headlines have changed, so pressure has been applied.
perhaps mcalipne can say why she changed it and why they wimped out.
If it was about Alex Salmond there would be no such delay in front page headlines!
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/scottish/scottish_news/749589/-MSP-Sandra-White-Whos-paying-for-the-Steven-Purcell-drama.html
Quite.
529. But Purcell was always portrayed as having a halo round his head. I guess I was naive, but I had always thought he was too ambitious to have been involved in the kind of dodginess his predecessors were into.
Yokel!
The word for Washington, DC is “monumental”. The buildings, the avenues, the parks and of course the monuments. Hard to appreciate until you’ve seen it for yourself.
Personally would suggest scalping the tickets to Mickfest or whatever it is a RFK, and spend the time instead touring one of the branches of the Smithsonian. Even if you already plan on doing so - there’s so much there there, that it can easily consume as much time as you can give it.
Again personally, my favorite Smithsonian sight: the Spirit of St. Louis hanging from the ceiling (unless they’ve moved it) of the Air & Space Museum.
IF you can gain access to the Capitol do so (am not sure about security procedures, lines, etc these 21st century days). Back in the day, tourists could wander pretty well at will. Must have been 25 years ago, I ended up with a 5-hour layover at National Airport (this was before they renamed it). So I took the Metro (very new then) to the Mall, and walked to the Capitol. Congress was in session, place was filled with staffers, etc AND hordes of tourists. As I was walking down a crowded hallway, who did I spy heading in the opposite direction? Then Sen. Bob Dole. We passed each other, and I kept walking around. Then I rounded a corner, and there was . . Bob Dole. I must have given him some kind of look, this time he said “Hi!” so naturally I said “Hi” back. Then since the House wasn’t in session right then, I went to a senator’s office (not his!) and got a ticket to the gallery. Waited in line maybe half hour and was seated. Hardly any solons on the floor, and my view was restricted. But I could clearly see . . . Bob Dole! Then I glanced at my watch, and realized I needed to hotfoot it back to the airport. As I boarded my plane, I got to thinking: wonder if Sen. Dole is now reporting the suspicious character who was stalllking him all afternoon!
Of the monuments, the Washington is great for a view, while the Lincoln is just great, period. And don’t miss the Vietnam War Memorial, it is trendendous as art, but even more as a public space that the public has truly embraced. Still remember the flap the Know Nothings of THAT day made about the fact that the young woman who designed it was (and still is) Asian American. But these krrrappphead shut up quick when they and everyone else saw her handiwork.
White House is also very interesting, but the wait for tickets is usually interniable. Unless of course they’ve got some kind of news system OR you can get them from UK embassy (ROI is likely out of their quota due to timing). BUT you can appreciate the WH from across the street in Lafayette Park.
As for the rest of the town, you should definitely take a longish walk or two in Northwest, esp Embassy Row (really a whole district, more or less around Dupont Circle) and the business district. Also Adams Morgan for grub, as I said earlier.
Unfortunately NE & SE DC are not very salubrious. BUT you could compare notes with West & North Belfast.
Must say your timing leaves something to be desired; best time to visit is when the cherry blossoms are in bloom. Which they are doing right now in the Other (ie Good) Washington, leastways west of the mountains!
JFK famously said that Our Nation’s Capital (that’s the slogan on DC license plates) is a city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency.
Yokel, make sure to get some tips from Chris (from Bethesda), S&S and other PBers who know the score!
526. Looks like the heavies have been sent around
534.Peter, tears for Piers, Fiona Phillips a former presenter of GMTV interviews the Brown’s for Tesco’s magazine, and now the Mail paper. Isn’t Dacre and his wife godparents to one of the Brown’s children and good friends of the Browns? As I asked on the earlier thread, do the Browns have any friends that cannot be called upon to either interview them or be the vehicle to run it?
They really don’t like the Military..
MINISTERS are being blamed for allowing thousands of soldiers’ homes to fall into ruin and disrepair after they were sold to the private sector in a £1.6 billion deal.
Guy Hands, one of the City’s best-known financiers, masterminded the agreement to buy 57,600 homes from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and then rent them back to troops.
The MoD remained responsible for the properties’ upkeep and claimed that the extra cash from the deal would provide badly needed funds to refurbish them. But it has emerged that the government diverted most of the money elsewhere.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052596.ece
They really don’t like the Military..
MINISTERS are being blamed for allowing thousands of soldiers’ homes to fall into ruin and disrepair after they were sold to the private sector in a £1.6 billion deal.
Guy Hands, one of the City’s best-known financiers, masterminded the agreement to buy 57,600 homes from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and then rent them back to troops.
The MoD remained responsible for the properties’ upkeep and claimed that the extra cash from the deal would provide badly needed funds to refurbish them. But it has emerged that the government diverted most of the money elsewhere.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052596.ece
OOps - lost my connection, not sure what happened their
OOps - lost my connection, not sure what happened there
533. Could be, though there were suggestions that Labour actually wanted the story to come out to punish Purcell for (eventually and very reluctantly) clamping down on the racket they had going at the SPT, and that the media are being so wimpy because of the gorilla lawyers Purcell has hired.
540 Yes, Christina, but the difference with the Mail and its sister paper is that they have ALWAYS been strongly pro-Tory and are owned by an establishment family. Frankly, I’m gob-smacked.
Sporting’s Labour mid-spread quote is 233 seats.
BPIX’s poll findings suggest 314 seats
A difference of 81 seats - one or other is very wrong, unless the real position is somewhere in the middle in which case both are just somewhat wrong!
Goodnight all.
537- SSI
excellent summary!
These days the white house is almost impossible to visit (only small groups recommended by a senator) but the Capitol is quite easy to access.
The air and space museum is great but I also love the museum of american Indians . The Phillips collection is small but amazing.
Adams Morgan is a bit crap these days, Georgetown or Dupont circle are better for food/drinks.
Large parts of the district are no-go areas after dark but the touristic/business/political part of town is perfectly safe. Same for the metro, always clean and calm.
546.”540 Yes, Christina, but the difference with the Mail and its sister paper is that they have ALWAYS been strongly pro-Tory and are owned by an establishment family. Frankly, I’m gob-smacked.”
Peter, the Mail has not been strongly pro-Tory in the last 10 years while being run by Dacre, far from it. But that has nothing to do with tonight’s poll though, lots of mixed messages comming out already with the ICM and YouGov polls, but at least we get to digest the data of both these polls, with BPIX we don’t get that luxury.
Nite all.
Kristin, would be nice to think that alternation of regime from left (sort of) to right (not enough for most pbers) will solve the basic problem you hightlight.
Highly doubtful. Because the problem isn’t ideologues. It’s beancounters.
Re: ideology, note that the over herem, Bush-Cheney administration treated the troops W loved so much to laud like dogshittttt, esp. when they returned home. Am VERY proud of the role my own senior senator, Patty Murray - all 5′4″ of her! - played in helping to expose and (better yet) begin rectifying this scandal. Further note it was the reaction of Bushe’s (then) new Sec. of Defense Gates to this (he had the main SOBs who tried to cover it up fired toute suite) convince me that he wasn’t just a typical Bushie criminal incompetent. Also others . . . which is why he’s STILL the Secretary!
Getting back to Dear Old Bighty IF defense spending is raised significantly by new Tory govt (somewhat doubful but not inconceivable) then bet your bottom dollar (or rather lower pound) that it will be millions for hardware, and pennies for troops.
Truly hope that ain’t the case. But don’t hold yer breath.
The horse-trading begins…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052611.ece
551. “Nick just could not work with Gordon. It would be a deal breaker.”
Does it not cross Clegg’s mind that he may be more vulnerable than he thinks: i.e. the LibDems might decide to replace him with someone who could work with Brown…
548, C(fB) - thanks for the update, has been so long I knew that some of my travelguide was way out of date!
Boy, all this talk about DC sure does make me itch to get back ASAP. Not for business (though I’d not spurn that) but rather for the pleasure of being there. The sight of the place always gets my patriotic vibe tingling nicely!
As for the Smithsonian, the American History used to be pretty good. Still remember how much my mother enjoyed it, thing that got to her (and just about everyone else) was how small the clothes were, of famous Americans, for example gowns worn by Mary Todd Lincoln. Of course she was notably petite. But just about all the historical garments were small. (Maybe they shrunk in the wash?) Except of course for Gen. Winnfield Scott and Pres. Wm Howard Taft!
Thanks for update re: Adams-Morgan. Now what I’d like to know, is where’s someplace to get some really good southern cooking, such as bisket (sp), grits (yum), hushpuppies and honest-to-gawd Maryland crab cakes???
Night all.
No, Rod. I think, as far as Lib Dems are concerned, Brown is OUT.
Phillipe M, congratulations on your new addition!
You must be gratified that, even this young, the little nipper sounds just like a true Québécois:
“Ouaa! Ouaa! Ouaa!”
555. Get Real. The Libs wanted Heath out in Feb 1974, but Thorpe said that if PR was delivered (later watered down to an indication of such) he could handle his party on that issue, and indeed join a coalition with Heath in the near future…
Read between the lines. It’s a shot across Brown’s bows. A bargaining point. Horse-trading…
If Brown can deliver, Clegg will suddenly discover an urgent reason to prop-up Labour led by Brown…
Sarah Palin bulletin
Asute politicos (such as Mark Shields the other night on PBS News Hour) are increasingly convinced that ex-Governor Palin is forsaking politics for celebrity.
Tonight’s big showbiz TV story: the Pride of Wasilla and her entourage allegedly grubbing for celebrity gift swagg at the Oscars pre-frenzy.
As I said (here I think) on the day she resigned: Now she belongs to the tabloids.
Re: Sarah Palin, apparently LA Times is reporting she donated the loot to the American Red Cross for Haiti relief.
So mix and match your own story: swarm of locusts and/or generous benefactor. Or as the Black lady from the view (not Goldie) said on the tabloid TV show: “that’s why they call them swag suites”
My own guess is that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Question is, Middle America . . . the middle of Rodeo Drive???
557, SSI - just for clarification, am refering to pronciation of “oui” and that is all!
Remarkably off topic but apposite (I hope) for this time of night. What do the Cyber nats think of Salmond’s rallying cry that Scotland needs champions? Was it just me who had an image of a highlander style MP? Just imagining full woad, broadsword and kilt in Parliament, or maybe or a more heroic fantasy manner Salmonds needs champions ‘tae lead the fight tae the English pigs’?
553 SSI If you don’t want to break the bank and want to mix southern comfort cooking with Maryland crab cakes, you can do no better than Johnny’s Half Shell, 400 N Capitol St NW, Washington, DC 20001. Don’t normally like grits, but they are great here. Most everything’s yummy.
RodCrosby @552, remember how interested a couple of people at the Electoral Outcomes Committee you linked to were in what happens if the current Prime Minister can’t form a government, but it looks like maybe somebody else from his party can?
Seems to me that switching the leader gets both Labour and the LibDems out of a hole; Labour gets to switch their leader, who even if he manages to scrape a Hung Parliament, is probably not turning out to be as popular as they had originally hoped. The LibDems get to show they’ve made some kind of change, and they’re not just propping up a PM on his last legs.
Also, I think this is sensible positioning for Clegg for the campaign, and will look even more so after a few weeks of Cameron and Brown slagging each other off. Vote Conservative if you like David Cameron and you’ll get David Cameron. Vote Labour if you like Gordon Brown and you’ll get Gordon Brown. Vote LibDem if you don’t like either of them, and you won’t get either of them.
So the interesting questions are:
1) If the LibDems said they wouldn’t have him, would Gordon resign of his own accord?
2) If he didn’t want to go, could Labour force him out and get someone else as PM?
3) If they got someone else, who? (Tim’s tip, Alistair Darling?)
This probably deserves its own thread. Mike’s led again and again on all kinds of improbable scenarios that were supposed to get rid of Brown. It would be ironic if he missed the one that might actually happen…