What about the firms that haven’t changed since 2005?
March 5th, 2010
Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow?
One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else - and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be going into this election using the same broad methodology as in 2005.
All the other firms doing monthly surveys - YouGov, ComRes, Angus Reid and Ipsos-MORI - are either new to UK polling or else have made significant changes to their approaches which as yet have not been tested at a general election.
Thus YouGov has made significant changes to their political weightings as has been much discussed here; Ipsos-MORI has abandoned face-to-face surveys and introduced its new public sector worker weightings; ComRes has brought in past vote weighting which was fine tuned again last year; while Angus Reid, which has a lot of experience in North America, is the new kid on the block in the UK.
ICM, by contrast, brought in its past vote weighting system in the mid-1990 and has operated in the same broad manner since. Populus started polling for the Times in 2003 and modelled itself on ICM.
And its these two phone pollsters that we have not heard from much since the gap between the Tories and Labour saw a sharp narrowing.
It’s a month and 12 YouGov polls of various kinds since the last Populus and ICM only did two published surveys in February the last being completed the weekend before last.
So I, for one, am really looking forward to their latest output which I’m hoping to see in the next two to three days.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
There’s money in them there blogs.
Though you need to get in the dead tree press to actually get it.
Congratulations, Mike.
Oh and, erm, First
Is it true the You Gov Scottish sub sample was carried out at the benefit offices in Glasgow, with no requirement for any weighting as it was an accurate assessment of who lived there?
FPT
“Do you think we’d have won the Second World War if mobile phone footage had been sent back from Dunkirk? Would you have supported a Times ‘expose’ of how fcked we were in 1940?”
The media were at Dunkirk. The media weren’t in Afghanistan when this ****ing government dropped a load of bods into ****ing Rorke’s drift without enough water or ammunition. If the ****ing media had been there then it would’ve been sorted about 100 times faster than it was.
I dearly hope McDoom at Chilcot has a big effect but i doubt it will as the more patriotic bits of the Labour vote switched sides a long time ago.
+++
“The “miracle of the little ships” remains a prominent folk memory in Britain. And it was all achieved without the assistance of Phillip Blond.”
Except a lot of the people who did that were from the caste the Blond stuff is all about maximizing - people who earned a living with their own boat i.e people who are both their own capitalist and their own labour.
+++
“Why is the KGB interested in buying the Global Warming Daily..?”
The great game moved closer to home.
+++
Carol Vorderman = hubba hubba, hubba hubba
One hubba hubba for each brain.
Had to switch off over the Bulger thing,
When it comes to crime the entire liberal political class seems to be collectively at war with the public. The public are right as the political class would realise if they were the ones doing the bleeding. Hopefully one day things will be reversed.
The Bulger killers shouldn’t have been tried in an adult court, that’s for sure.
4 (cont) Also the c*mmie bit of the media won’t even make any films or TV shows about what a good job they did under the circumstances so they don’t even get the glory and free pints.
3. To be fair, Redcliffe, yesterday’s subsample was realistic enough (Labour 40, SNP 26, Con 19, Lib Dem 12). But I’m not sure about the one before that!
On topic-ish.
Did Kellner overestimate labour in the Euro elections?
If so, and I think he did from memory but someone can confirm to me for sure, then you would have thought he might have learned from his mistakes. People will vote for other parties even if the weighting is clearly wrong to suggest previous voting is all important. UKIP a great example as had not been around much before.
Oh dear. I’ve just been YouGov polled and one of the questions is on Ashcroft. Described in the question as ‘the Conservative deputy leader’
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
Come on Mr Kellner, hire a proof reader with an interest in politics!
David, So no question on labour non doms then? Thought not.
Any word on Harris or any other new (non-MORI/YouGov/ComRes/AR) pollsters who you mentioned would start political polling for the General Election?
I wonder who commissioned the poll……..
Final Score:
Tony Blair - 3,041
Gordon Brown - 323
http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/news/100119-ballot.aspx
http://www.iraqinquiry.org.uk/news/100225-brown-ballot-draw.aspx
Regarding Bulger, Will Self is an idiot but Vorderman was not the best spokesperson for the ‘other side’ (being the only panelist prepared to take another view). Her tone and body language were jarring throughout, unlike Sarah Palin (who Labourites compared her to but who always keeps her calm) - she is not suited to political debate.
The one and only occasion when Brown is probably delighted to have been trounced by Blair!
14 I think that’s generally true as the view represented by people like Will Self makes the other side too angry to think straight.
14. She was absolutely awful. There were some points I agreed with in principle, and a great many points that I didn’t, but almost regardless of what she was saying I just wished she would stop talking. But she can be excused in the sense that she’s not a politician and wouldn’t have realised how badly she was coming across.
Shirley Williams was excellent and Boris was a buffoon, which by the now traditional logic of the electorate means that Boris ‘won’.
Me and my brother used to watch Countdown obsessively in the 80s and 90s as young kids getting home from school so Carol Vorderman and Richard Whiteley are almost heroes to us in a weird sort of way.
17
You forget that Boris Johnson was up against the despicable Newt. I would suggest his victory was 90% anti-Livingstone and 10% pro-Boris.
Boris is not my ideal but he is much cleverer than the leftists who criticize him. As demonstrated again tonight, by making Dimblebore squirm after that Bullingdon comment.
Richard Whiteley was TV’s version of Boris. Came over as a bit of a plonker but really smart and you can’t help but like him.
Boris wins whenever he goes on TV. He’s a genuine bright star in a very dull political galaxy.
I’ll never forget his ‘tackle’ on the German in the celeb footy match. TV GOLD.
But I think he suits being Mayor. Give him a government and I’d be fairly scared.
To relive the moment in all its glory, click here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA
“But I think he suits being Mayor.”
Ditto. Semi-celeb job like that suits him much better imo.
O/T:
A random quote for you:
“Whether prosperity can survive without the memories and disciplines of poverty is a question I don’t know the answer to”.
That’s taken from Fishing In Utopia by Andrew Brown, page 17.
Went on a link to a site called Harry’s Place.
Shocked me. But none of this is ever discussed. Why not?
Scary what happens if you criticise Islam in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.
In Pakistan not washing your hands even as a Christian and you touched a Koran got you 25 years in the clink. And these lunatics have the bomb and are supposed to be our partners against terror. What a farce.
And 300 lashes and 18 months to a woman in Saudi who complained about harassment.
We should be hearing more of this and more complaints from Muslims here that they do not support it.
I agree we should be tolerant, but it does seem that muslims cannot take any criticism.
But there is an opportunity. If people take it.
The beeb are going to an east London mosque for a show tonight.
Ken Livingstone claims to be tolerant, so a chance to show it.
No women on the panel, well they have to be kept out of the way in the mosque it seems. But there are many male Muslims goiung, many who were there before when terrible things were said about Elton john and others in the mosque.
Suggest they look at the video link of the chap denouncing homosexuality and presenters and muslims alike should decide if it is really a good idea to have adiscussion on fairness and tolerance. Hypocrisy would be the outcome.
Will anyone dare broach the subject at the mosque tonight, it is aljabeeba, so my guess is ABSOLUTELY no chance.
‘Parties put on alert that Gordon Brown may go for 15 April election’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/uk/Parties-put-on-alert-that.6126378.jp
Congratulations to the New Statesman on a significant strengthening of its magazine.
Boris Johnson is the only winning candidate that I have ever voted for. Anyone who thinks he is a buffoon needs to get their prescription checked. He is probably the cleverest man in British politics (though also the laziest). He is unlikely ever to lead the Tories but I’m sure we’ll be hearing about him for years to come. One thing is for sure: he doesn’t lack for ambition.
stuart,
Hope the question of the budget is pushed hard, and demanded before any election.
and lots of pressure on the labour non doms, although I would rather the election was fought on proper issues.
It also means that the court matters with the beeb on the first debate need to be addressed immediately. The fact the beeb in Scotland was secretive about it against the SNP as the government of Scotland was to attempt make sure they sneaked it through for their labour masters. Bias does not even cover it.
I am sure the SNP knew that was the plan anyway, and had it all prepared in advance. At least I hope they were. Hope PC do a similar court case in Wales, as soon as the debate dates are announced and the election period is confirmed. Until that happens it is (legally)supposition.
Denying bad news (i.e. the TRUTH) has been labour’s approach for 13 years, this campaign will be no different.
26. “Anyone who thinks he is a buffoon needs to get their prescription checked.”
Whereas anyone who can claim he’s the only winning candidate they’ve ever voted for needs to sue the pharmacy. For the record I’ve never doubted his intelligence for a moment, which is what makes his calculated “vote for me, I’m an idiot” routine increasingly tiresome.
YouGov confirms that only political nerds give a fig about Ashcroft.
Have a play with the BBC’s ‘Most popular stories’ gadget. http://bit.ly/chYlHp
Despite their headlining Ashcroft all day yesterday, the story never made the top ten. The gadget has the option to look back upon the week and discover which stories were most read each day. Ashcroft never makes the hit parade.
25 “Opposition parties are also looking at the possibility of a 5 April date”, but 5 April is a Monday. I do worry about the Scotsman. Mind you 15 April remains slap bang in the middle of the school holidays….
25. What about the debates? Surely they could fit them in within that timeframe…
Congrats indeed Mike.
2 new columns, wow! Well done, and good luck.
6. antifrank - “He is probably the cleverest man in British politics… “
Maybe in English politics, but not sure about “British” (sic) politics.
Boris Johnson, Comment is Free, 12 June 2007: ‘Are we all equally British? Not if Brown has his way’
- While Scottish MPs vote on English university funding, English MPs can do nothing to stop paying Scotland’s student fees
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/jun/12/comment.universityfunding
6. antifrank - “He is probably the cleverest man in British politics… “
Maybe in English politics, but not sure about “British” (sic) politics.
Boris Johnson, Comment is Free, 12 June 2007: ‘Are we all equally British? Not if Brown has his way’
- While Scottish MPs vote on English university funding, English MPs can do nothing to stop paying Scotland’s student fees
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/jun/12/comment.universityfunding
Mike (or whoever is moderating): please delete the two extracts from Boris’ CiF piece that are sitting in the moderation queue -> the PB filter clearly does not like something that Boris wrote, although I cannot see any problem words.
Just a shame that Boris Johnson’s pal FM Dave has now chickened out of implementing English Votes on English Laws:
http://tinyurl.com/ydp5ph3
http://blog.itv.com/news/tombradby/?p=56 Hypocrisy pure and simple.
Congratulations Mike on joining the anti Tory conspiracy.
Do we know which branch of it yet?
Perhaps the first piece could be on how the Golden Rule operates when Cameron is hiding from the media.
I think its great that there will be more informed comment on polls and polling in the MSM. There are so many lazy assumptions there without any understanding of the underlying data. A wider appreciation of Andy Cooke’s work on here for example would have a significant effect on the MSM’s narrative.
34. Stuart you do read and find the most amazing things.
test
Technology and the GE
Forget about Twitter; it’s more about smart databases and search engine adverts…
…behind the scenes, all three political parties (and especially the Conservatives) have been quietly investing in less prominent technologies that really could have a significant impact in a tight election.
These innovations come in three areas. The first is internet search engines. Rishi Saha, the Tories’ internet supremo, says he has redesigned his party’s website around one simple idea: how to “tempt people in as they floated by doing other things on the web”. Google is thus in a powerful position, given that all three political parties increasingly pay the search giant for its targeted online “p@y-per-cl1ck” @dvertising system. The Tories even bought the search term “James Purnell” on June 4 last year, just minutes after the work and pensions secretary resigned from the Cabinet. Anyone searching for the story instantly saw a Tory @dvertisement.
…both Labour and the Tories have still been steadily expanding their e-mail lists. Both also use online “phone bank” systems that allow activists to call up target voters from a home computer.
…Over the past five years the Conservatives have stealthily built a powerful new system called Merlin. This, in turn, is linked to Mosaic, a clever socio-demographic system for classifying different types of consumer groups, produced by Experian, the consumer cred1t and information services group. When combined with polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft’s marginal seats team, Merlin now allows the Conservatives to home in on voters in key seats more precisely than ever before.
Labour has a similar new system called Contact Creator. This taps into Mosaic’s databases, too, while allowing local activists to pull up lists of voters on the electoral register from any computer, and feed in data from the party’s canvassing. Labour claims to be ahead of its rivals in some areas: the party this week said 30,000 supporters had used its Membersnet activists’ website in the past six months; more than used MyConservatives.com, the rival Tory platform.
37. DavidL - “Stuart you do read and find the most amazing things.”
Gareth Young (for it is he who writes the Toque blog) is an internet friend of mine (ie. we have only ever met on the internet, although talk of real-life beers has occurred).
Gareth is one of the brightest political bloggers I have come across (for example, his mastery of the English language far exceeds Mike Smithson’s; did you know that PB posts used to be absolutely littered with spelling mistakes? - before I asked Double Carpet to get Mike to use a spellchecker). I am frequently astounded by his acumen and energy. But I perhaps should have given a “rude words” warning before linking to that particular article via tinyurl!
This place used to be a lot better when it was a Gareth-only zone:
http://www.thecep.org.uk/wordpress/blog/
Still a fine resource, but a pale shadow of its former self.
Technology and the GE
Forget about trolls and Twitter; it’s actually about smart databases and search engine adverts…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4ae6dfc-27f6-11df-9598-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
“Unseen technology is shaping the Election in Britain”
I have just done a YouGov Survey. Key questions included:-
Did I think Brown was a Bully?
Would it make me more of less likely to vote Labour?
Lord Ashcroft does not pay tax in the UK, would it make me more or less likely to vote Conservative? (it did not ask me if I thought this mattered or anything about Lord Paul)
What did I consider the key issues in the country? (it had nothing on the EU in the list)
If Cameron did xyz would I be more likely to vote Conservative? (it had nothing on the EU !! but included immigration, public spending and tax)
It also asked my views on a hung parliament in a number of questions
After taking this I am convinced it is a poll to maintain the momentum on the hung parliament, Conservative problem in the weekend papers. It makes me very sceptical these polls are reflecting public opinion accurately, whatever their methodology. And, even worse, it is a survey that is trying to affect public opinion - that runs counter to all known standards of good research practice. YouGov are a disgrace to their profession, and a danger to democracy - in my opinion.
The Guardian gets to the nub of why the Ashcroft affair is so damaging for the Tories:
It was not the duck island, nor even the few alleged outright frauds, which did the most damage during the expenses fiasco. No, what really stirred public ire was the host of MPs who played the system for personal gain by flipping their first and second homes. In the days since the top Tory donor Michael Ashcroft belatedly came clean about being a non-dom, we have seen the art of breaching the spirit while (perhaps) honouring the letter of the rules taken to giddying heights. He flipped not between homes but between countries, depending on what was expedient. Party donations that come from his British company can be traced back to Belize; he undertook to become a permanent UK resident, while privately brokering a deal that ensured he would be taxed as if he were a temporary one; and – as today’s Guardian reveals – he paid for the polling of middle England from an account that was far away from these shores in order to avoid a chunky VAT bill.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/05/lord-ashcroft-conservatives-editorial
The Tories must not be allowed to get away with this.
41, isn’t that inaccurate?
Lord Ashcroft pays UK tax on UK earnings and tax from elsewhere on his earnings elsewhere?
42, you seem confused. Flipping involves using taxpayer’s money to fund housing. Tax avoidance involves using intelligence to reduce the overall tax burden an individual faces. Ashcroft has not taken public money, nor has he evaded tax.
Be interesting to see what the other pollsters show. I’ve rather lost faith in YouGov.
42 - How does that differ from the Guardian’s own use of countries of domicile? Indeed, Lord Ashcroft obviously does have real connections with Belize. I am unaware of any connection between the Manchester Guardian and the Cayman Islands:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article6959685.ece
Party leaders’ debates: any chance of a reference to England?
http://britologywatch.wordpress.com/2010/03/04/party-leaders%e2%80%99-debates-any-chance-of-a-reference-to-england/
43. More diversionary Tory nonsense.
44. The Guardian doesn’t sit in the House of Lords.
Dont know if this has been posted previously… Apologies if it has been..
Good to see AR mentioned too..
http://newsarse.com/2010/02/23/latest-opinion-polls-show-drop-in-support-for-opinion-polls/
46 - It does seem to think that it holds some place in British public debate. And Lord Paul sits in the House of Lords and on the Privy Council. So in what way is Lord Ashcroft unique?
Typical partisan hypocrite.
46 BenM
“The Guardian doesn’t sit in the House of Lords.”
Brilliant. As the media is unimportant, we’ll have no more complaints about the Murdoch Press then?
I learnt a new word today: Doxographer
‘Someone who records or writes about what people think’.
Seems a better definition than ‘Psephologist’ to me.
47 Interesting. In the YouGov’s end comment box asking me what I thought of the Survey, I said they had not asked me if I believed the opinion polls on a hung parliament.
46 The Guardian may not but Lord Paul, Baroness Uddin and Baroness (of the dodgy maid) all do !!!! Not forgetting the dubious person hounded from the role as Speaker, or infact a certain Lord who had to resign over a dodgy mortgage!!
Haha, new meanderings into the realm of irrelevance from Bedpans:
“Ken Clarke in attack on Cameron for “waltzing off” with “ultra-nationalist right in central Europe”
Posted by James Macintyre - 04 March 2010 17:20
It was five years ago, but still . . . ”
Tim, art thou the New Statesman clown prince?
POLL ALERT - YouGov/ITV Wales
‘YouGov poll shows Labour lead in Wales growing, with Plaid in third place’
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/welsh-politics/welsh-politics-news/2010/03/05/yougov-poll-shows-labour-lead-in-wales-growing-with-plaid-in-third-place-91466-25966188/
What I do not understand with the Ashcroft story is why the Conservatives are not coming out and being more vocal in defence? Is it that the news groups are simply not listening or that, for some reason, the Conservatives are holding back?
I mean, I have heard very few Conservative representatives arguing that Lord Paul is a privy councillor and that this, thus, is more that simply being a donor - which seems to be the Labour/Lib Dem defence of their own non-doms. I have seen no one persistently remind people that Lord Ashcroft has been a strong supporter of the British armed forces, the need to remember our history and set up Crime Stoppers. Of course these latter points do not change the attack lines the other parties have, but they surely would balance people’s perceptions of the situation up.
Overall, rightly or not, I think most people are not interested in the story outside Westminster. A woman summed it up really well on Five Live yesterday about 11.55am (it may be on iplayer) - when she said that all the parties are at it, what about discussing real policy issues. That said if the story keeps on rumbling it may seep ever more in to the population’s conciousness.
“And, even worse, it is a survey that is trying to affect public opinion - that runs counter to all known standards of good research practice. YouGov are a disgrace to their profession, and a danger to democracy - in my opinion.”
YouGov are undoubtedly becoming the tail that is wagging the dog and Kellner appears determined to milk it for all it is worth.
53 Stuart Dickson
Do you know if it was based on aggregation of daily samples, as the London poll was?
There must be a lot of unhappy people here at the prospect of another Labour Government, but you were warned. Having discussed this at length the only conclusion that I can come to is that the Tories are indeed useless. And of course having the BBC onside helps, watch and weep:
Question Time 4th March
55 (cont)
- A Conservative spokesman said: “A hung parliament wouldn’t be good for Wales; it wouldn’t be good for Britain. The only people who want it are Plaid Cymru.”
Fun and games ahead?
56. wibbler
No idea. I only just found out about it 5 minutes ago. It is not up on YouGov’s website yet.
JamesM
It would be good if someone counted up the number of job losses announced this week and then compared it to the minutes Labour pols spent talking about Ashcroft.
A comparision with the time the Bussiness Secretary has spent talking about Ashcroft in comparision with his actual job might be especially good.
53 - A very interesting poll, and it suggests that the Lib Dems may vote tactically for Labour in Labour/Tory marginals. It’s a shame there’s no seat projection with it. If I’ve worked Baxter’s regional predictor properly, it suggests 5 Tory gains and 3 Plaid Cymru gains (2 Lib Dem losses and 6 Labour losses).
Yes - we need more polls from firms who don’t have dodgy methodology or with bosses unrelated by marriage to Labour party members…
ICM - rescue us from ourselves!
a nice 41/29/18 would sort me out
On topic, yes, it would be a lot healthier for an overview of the political situation to get a much more balanced set of surveys.
JonathanD
Indeed.
I can’t remember Mandelson having anything to say about the 1200 scientific research jobs that have been lost in Loughborough.
Perhaps if it was bankers jobs he might have noticed.
Jon Venables ‘returned Liverpool’ where he was banned for James Bulger murder
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23812314-jon-venables-returned-to-city-he-was-banned-from-for-james-bulger-murder.do
On R4 Today, Robert Peston giving his opinion on Brown facing the Chilcott enquiry today.
Funny thing is, I thought Peston was the BBC’s Business Reporter? Apparently because Peston wrote a hagiography on Brown a few years ago this permits Peston to enter the Politics field of BBC reporting. Previously Peston trampled over his BBC Economics colleagues during the Credit crisis.
54 James M. The reason the Tory big beasts are not fronting up for Ashcroft interviews is that they know there is little upside in doing so. The post Spring Conservative conference and Cammo speech time has been completely overshadowed by the Ashcroft hoop-la and the hung parliament narrative.
In terms the Conservatives have lost a weeks campaigning. They have not been driving the agenda and have allowed the Dark Side time on the ball - Big mistake.
The other big question is what is the Conservative strategy for this pre-campaign period. Is there one or are they adrift playing events ad-hoc and hoping that their poll lead will not erode as the weeks slip by ??
60 - Good ideas.
I just cannot imagine why there is not a more offensive media posture from the Conservatives. The only glimpse I have seen was Gove against Wark earlier in the week.
Maybe it is happening and the press are not reporting it - but go to the social networking sites and spread your message indirectly then.
63. antifrank
A guy called Neil A on UK Polling Report writes:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2487/comment-page-2#comment-604226
Boris is a booliak.
Will Self was right about Venables.
I often wonder why the judge allowed Thompson and Venables to be named in the first place at the end of their trial. It would have been easier to manage their safety and treatment without going through the caboodle of false identities.
62
Well as YouGov’s MD is a Tory PPC..then they are obviously pro Conservative….
69, given YouGov are dubious, we’re months away from an election, the campaign hasn’t started and UNS doesn’t work, I’m not too worried, and wouldn’t be if I were a Conservative.
67 - I can see there may not be an upside for the really high-level leaders to come out; but why there is not someone out reminding people at all times about other party non-doms, the issues surrounding Lord Paul’s privy council status, and Lord Ashcroft’s charity work is a little confusing. It may not change people’s views fundamentally, but in media terms would it not weaken the attack lines a little. Emphasising that there are more important issues around policy would also help.
53 - It’s the Dai Malfunction.
69 - Sounds like Neil A has done the same thing I did. I don’t agree with his comment about it being worrying for the Tories. Wales has never been good territory for them and 8 seats would be a good tally for them. They’d have gone nap on that if they’d been offered that result for the next election when David Cameron became Tory leader.
The key areas for the election are Lancashire, Yorkshire and the east and west midlands.
A good signing by the New Statesman. Enjoy!
It was said at the time of the McBride emails that Mcbride was Brown’s rottweiler. Frank Skinner wrote presciently “….but what sort of person keeps a rottweiler?”
I think you can say the same of Cameron’s involvement in the bullingdon club. What sort of person would want to join that kind of club?
The electorate see a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea and that’s what the polls are reflecting.
Congrats Mike on the New Statesman column.
Does this mean I have to start buying the New Statesman though?
As far as I can see, this new Wales poll predicts 3 Plaid Cymru gains:
Arfon (from LAB)
Ceredigion (from LIB DEM)
Ynys Môn (from LAB)
67 - I’m firmly of the belief that this has played better for the Tories than for either Labour or the Lib Dems. It has played particularly badly for the Lib Dems.
77, don’t be silly, it’ll be available online (I hope).
How are your eaglets, Mr. Eagles?
79, do you think that because Crazy Chris Huhne has been on the airwaves a lot?
Back to today:
Mr Brown’s The Chilcot inquiry appearance is perhaps the last of the major poll-defining obstacles the Prime Minister has to negotiate before he calls the next General Election.
His performance today matters. There are two massive questions that need answering:
1. How heartfelt was his support for the war and was he evasive during its build up for purely career reasons?
2. Did he refuse funding for defence equipment during the heat of battle?
It isn’t electorally helpful that memories of the disastrous Iraq misadventure are being dredged up so close to the election. But these questions are far more important and rightly trump everything.
80 - They are fine, expect to take them home in about a weeks time.
Am actually catching up with sleep these days.
Whatever I say about Labour, paternity leave rules.
79 - That’s interesting, can you explain why?
81 - He’s a numpty. The Lib Dem choice in 2007 was in retrospect a really unappealing one and the membership made the best of a bad job.
79.
67 - I’m firmly of the belief that this [the Ashcroft affair] has played better for the Tories than for either Labour or the Lib Dems. It has played particularly badly for the Lib Dems
Wow! That is strong stuff you’re smoking!
Bookies’ best prices:
Arfon
PC 1/9 (VC)
Lab 6/1 (various)
Con 16/1 (VC)
LD 100/1 (various)
Ceredigion
PC 5/6 (various)
LD 10/11 (VC)
Con 25/1 (various)
Lab 100/1 (various)
Ynys Môn
PC 1/3 (various)
Lab 5/2 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
Con 16/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes)
Peter Rogers 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
LD 100/1 (various)
82.
“Mr Brown’s The Chilcot inquiry appearance is perhaps the last of the major poll-defining obstacles the Prime Minister has to negotiate before he calls the next General Election.”
So you don’t expect a Budget then.
83, there are trace amounts of gold in shit.
Glad to hear your offspring are well.
84 - The Lib Dems and Labour have looked hysterical, trivial and hypocritical. And when the Electoral Commission ruled in Lord Ashcroft’s favour, stupid and losers as well.
82 BenM
Did you watch Question Time last night? For an audience that didn’t seem pro Tory at all my impression was they were very strong on underfunding of the Armed Forces and sending them out to war. What was your impression?
67 Jack W
The Tory troops need motivating at the moment. A junior member of the Shadow Cabinet doing a demolition job on Lord Paul would certainly help do that.
73 James M. The contrast is clear. Ashcroft is a player for the Tories and Lord Paul isn’t for Labour.
The Tories have played the Ashcroft saga very badly and media smell a rat and some parts of the media-terrier community will not let the rat go. As is often the case it’s the perceived or actual cover-up that damages.
The Tories would do well to front up, admit any mistakes and move on. If they don’t the Ashcroft saga will hang over the pre-campaign period like a bad odour and from time to time come back to bite them on the arse. Better pain now than a few days from polling day !!
82. Brown’s silence on Iraq ma be related to the old phrase: “better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.”
I reakon the Tories would be quite happy for Labour to keep hysterically going on about Ashcroft between now and Brown calling the election.
The truth is Labour are once again looking odd and obsessive about an issue the general public has absolutely no interest in whatsoever - Hence this being the first week of 2010 where the polls haven’t narrowed. If Lavour keep plugging away at this non issue, I reakon theres a reasonable chance some of their recent polling gains could start going into reverse.
93, the media are running with the story, but they ran with the yacht nonsense too.
My own view is that the non-politically engaged will really not give a shit. Rich man gives money to party after not paying tax in the UK on overseas earnings but paying tax on UK earnings is not a killer headline.
24 - “Went on a link to a site called Harry’s Place.
Shocked me. But none of this is ever discussed. Why not?
Scary what happens if you criticise Islam in Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.”
These things are discussed as you found on Harry’s place.
Just dont expect the MSM to do it (with the honorable exception of C4 - who had the police on their case for daring to do so).
Harry’s place is a great site, even better now that tim doesn’t seem to post there anymore
How long before the elections will the leaders debates be. Can they schedule the last one on the day the first quarterly growth figures come out
92 wibbler. It might seem unfair but having a pop at Lord Paul is a poor move. It just keeps the Ashcroft saga front and centre. Sometimes in politics you just have to accept the hit and move on.
93 - Jack W - that strategy is not of course mutually exclusive from reminding the electorate that all party have non-doms and that Lord Paul is a privy councillor. It then reminds the electorate that it is somewhat hypocritical for the other parties to be bringing this up. Finished with a reminder to focus on the economy could be a good finale.
Stage 1 - Acknowledge mistakes but emphasise support for non-doms leaving the Lords.
Stage 2 - Remind the electorate and media that all party have non-doms and that Lord Paul is a privy councillor, which is historically an important role. Add in some positives about Lord Ashcroft to nullify attacks on him.
Stage 3 - Ask people to focus on ‘real’ policy issues relating to the economy.
25 - from your link “Opposition parties are also looking at the possibility of a 5 April date. The SNP’s election co-ordinator, Stewart Hosie, MP, said: “There will be a constant stream of bad news over the next few months.”
Seems like Gordon and Labour have not quite saved the world after all.
5 more years? not likely
I think the risk for Labour whenever they bring up Ashcroft, it brings up Party funding issues, and the general public remembers, Cash for Honours, which isn’t good for Labour.
102, some may also be turned off by Lord Mandelson leading the charge.
On thread >ER ICM et al.Yes lets get back to polls where the time difference is sufficient to measure real change in voting intention.
For the record the average of last wseeks SUN YOu gov trackers and this week are virtually identical
Week 1 Con 38.5,Lab 32.5.Lib 17.25
Week 2 con 38.25,lab 32.5,Lib 17.25
No real differnc eand I suspect the daily movements are all within sampling error.thus The Suncould save a lot of money by having weekly poll instead.
Apologies for going off topic, but one for our American posters, and I wonder if this has betting implications?
US facing surge in rightwing extremists and militias• Civil rights report shows 250% rise in ‘patriot’ groups
• Economy and media conspiracy theories fuel growth
The US is facing a surge in anti-government extremist groups and armed militias, driven by deepening hostility on the right to Barack Obama, anger over the economy, and the increasing propagation of conspiracy theories by parts of the mass media such as Fox News.
The Southern Poverty Law Centre, the US’s most prominent civil rights group focused on hate organisations, said in a report that extremist “patriot” groups “came roaring back to life” last year as their number jumped nearly 250% to more than 500 with deepening ties to conservative mainstream politics.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/04/us-surge-rightwing-extremist-groups
Antifrank - This story is no longer about Ashcroft.
Cameron and Hague have managed, by not dealing with it earlier, to make it an story about their judgement.
105. What a hysterical article, in both senses of the word.
106, thank goodness we have tim’s objective voice of reason here to cut through the partisan smearing and tribal deceit. Hurrah!
Speaking of judgement, how many soldiers do you think died because Brown slashed the helicopter budget by £1.4bn?
21- actually had me laughing out loud, again, and not in a butch manly way, very nearly rotflmfao!
97- I agree with that, it really is an excellent site
101: What really would the implications be of a election in school holidays? Less turnover? Afluent families away? Good for labour, or not?
Tim, there is no story. It was a sad tale of left of centre conspiracy theorist whack jobs who wanted to be Woodward and Bernstein and ended up as Morecambe and Wise.
In the interest of balance, I should point out that I thought that the impact of the bullying allegations would be minimal, and said so in advance.
100 James M. It looks grand on paper but the media don’t operate in neat segments and such a nuanced strategy will rarely hit its target - the voters.
Have we had policy debates this week - barely any. Ashcroft and hung parliaments all week.
The tory strategy such that it is has gone AWOL this week. Conservatives must hope the media get bored or other events take over. Lord only knows they need a break.
26- “He is probably the cleverest man in British politics (though also the laziest).”
Boris Johnson as the Matt Le Tisier of politics?
113 - Jack, I think after today, the focus will move to Gordon Brown’s answers at the Chilcott inquiry
105 Not entirely surprising. The most liberal of all Democrat senators got elected as POTUS and has been trying (but failing) to push the leftiest agenda of any president in recent times.
Given that the US citizenry is armed, it can be no shock that those of an independent / anti big government bent will feel motivated to coalesce.
If Obama is going to get assassinated it will be one of this lot I’d expect, not the Muslims.
111, because everyone thinks it’ll be 6 May they’d be open to accusations of cutting and running (from the media and maybe Lib Dems, Tories couldn’t use that line because they’ve called for an election every Tuesday since 2007).
It’d probably be a net positive for Labour, but could risk pissing people and the media off [if you've booked a week in France but have to cancel because Cyclops has called an election in April when May looked nailed on you wouldn't be happy].
106. Who says the “story” is now about Hague and Camerons judgement? Certainly not the general public who it appears couldn’t give a sh*t about any of this. Haven’t you noticed that throughout the week, despite the hysterical rantings of Labour the YouGov tracker hasn’t moved? Doesn’t that tell you something?
Frankly, I was bored to tears with this whole saga on Tuesday and I have a keen interest in politics - Goodness only knows what the GP makes of it all….
76: Roger, the difference was Cameron joined the Bullingdon club when he was 18 or so, well before public life and before he was a proper ‘adult’. Brown was the PM when he had McBride.
God knows I’ve got things I would do differently, and I would think that people would have the sense to judge me on what I am now, not what I was when I was a naive teenager.
116- they seem to have got out of the habit of assassinating presidents recently
114: Matt Le Tissier is a true god. Enough said.
115, perhaps. I expect we’ll learn sod all. Brown will bullshit for several hours, and most of the panel are feeble.
If there’s no storyy why has Dave gone AWOL.
He can jog but he can’t hide.
121- he really is a legend
123: Because Hague and Cameron are not at the beck and call of the guardian over a non-story in the first place?
Not sure if already posted, but this article is interesting
Tories target 40 key seats to give them precious margin of victory
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7050387.ece
123, oh, you’re so right, tim. Mr. Cameron has not been seen anywhere, unlike the brave Mr. Brown who never ever hides. Why, only this week he could have easily manufactured an excuse to avoid Prime Minister’s Questions, taking his absentee rate to 12% (hat tip Andrew Neil).
122. If Sir Roderick Lyne plugs away at Brown like he has some of the other Chilcot “guest’s” I could imagine Brown getting a bit tetchy with him.
123 tim
If Brown wanted to question Cameron then he should have turned up at PMQs. Instead Gordon ran away.
123 - Clearly you missed him talking about it earlier on this week.
‘SNP members to boycott BBC licence fee’
- The row over Alex Salmond’s exclusion from a series of televised general election debates has escalated dramatically after it emerged SNP supporters are threatening a boycott of the BBC licence fee
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7370432/SNP-members-to-boycott-BBC-licence-fee.html
I expect a tractor stats masterclass from Brown today.
“Were funds cut for helicopters ?”
“Defence spending rose X% in real terms, no requests for tanks from the RAF were turned down by me …”
41. These questions by YouGov seem closer to American push polls than anything else. “Lord Ashcroft does not pay tax in the UK, would it make me more or less likely to vote Conservative?” is not only untrue but plants a (false) idea in the mind of the recipient. It would be very disappointing if such polling got a grip in this country. My recollection is that one thing Peter Kellner did manage to talk about was what questions they would ask. WOnder how he justified this one?
131, tartan rattles hurled angrily out of pram.
131 - They’ll go to prison for non payment. And Prisoners can’t vote.
Thus buggering up the SNP chances in the 2011 Holyrood elections.
SNPer’s don’t fall into the Elephant sized unionist trap.
129-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZwuTo7zKM8
He bravely ran away away
When danger reared it’s ugly head
He bravely turned his tail and fled
123. Cam’s probably in his office laughing his arse off at Labours hysterical, hyporcritical rantings.
Looking at the you gov polls it seems that when negative storys appear in the press bullygate and ashcroft affair. The public are bored with these stories the other parties see these stories as confirming their own viewpoint and people who support the parties just see it as electioneering
Well we knew this campaign was going to be very dirty and utterly desperate. This week we had a press orgy on Ashcroft, last week it was Bullygate, what do we have in store for next week I wonder?
The problem with this is the public hate it, party point-scoring over what they see as totally irrelevant Westminster gossip at a time of national crisis.
The Conservatives were right to largely stay out of Bullygate and right to keep as low profile as possible over Ashcroft because the shrill shouting might make supporters feel a bit happier but sure puts off most real life voters.
Just about the worst thing any senior Conservative could do at this point -however tempting- is join the melee of negative politics; and wise heads know it.
It has been manna from heaven for me, fighting in a LD marginal, watching on TV the Lib Dems blindly supporting Labour attacks on us night after night. Thank you Vince, Shirley, Chris and Nick for beautifully demonstrating to my constituents what this contest is all about.
On thread Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow?
On their last polls Populus had alead of 10%.ICM 7%.If we argue that
You Gov tends to overstate labour ,but understate Con amd Lib dems then a lead of 7/8% seems likely.
I would guees that figures of con 39/38,Lab 31/32,Lib 19/20 are likely.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/05/financial-crisis-public-spending-tax
Martin Kettle says it like he see’s it, and he’s 100% right.
133. It’s OK.
I’m use YouGov will soon pose questions like ‘Labour has accepted large sums from foreign businessmen and granted commercial favours to them in return - does this make you more or less likely to vote Labour?’.
121.. Aergia perhaps? (ignoring the gender difference)
Though for a Scummer he wasnt too bad… :o)
Whatever you do don’t mention the economy !
It would appear that without Mervyn King’s printing presses we would still be in recession
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7370220/UK-would-still-be-recession-without-200bn-Bank-of-England-cash-injection.html
How much longer can he keep them rolling ?
We can only guess at Daves location.
So far Ashcroft has turned out one pocket and out fell Hague.
Is Dave in the other one?
142, or even:
“Labour has given millions of taxpayer’s money to the unions and received millions of donations from the unions. Does this make you more or less likely to genetically engineer a giant fish and beat the Prime Minister to death with it?”
145 - Tim, Blair survived Cash for Honours.
Are you saying this is bigger than cash for honours?
SCOTTISH LIB DEMS OFFICIALLY LIST THEIR TARGET SEATS
‘Lib Dems set sights on four Labour seats’
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1633107?UserKey=#ixzz0hIDAojxx
Bookies’ best prices on the Lib Dems in:
Edinburgh South 6/4
Edinburgh North & Leith 9/4
Aberdeen South 9/4
Glasgow North 6/1
Only Fred Mackintosh in Edinburgh South looks like an MP-in-waiting.
Arthritis drug ‘too costly’ for England (but not Scotland)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1255329/Arthritis-drug-costly-England-Scotland.html#ixzz0hIFWkXBc
149 SD
you all die younger so it costs less !
144. They have stopped - no more QE.
GDP is overrated - we’ve just seen a recovery bought from thin air at the expense of our currency - hence on a global scale we are all poorer - where is the skill in that ?
151, officially they’ve just paused
One thing that the Ashcroft assault has revealed to the Tories benefit is a “secret pact” between the Lib Dems and Labour to form a coalition government!
With both parties rotating the strike in clockwork fashion; a degree of synchronisation is impossible to miss. Has anyone forgotten that bizarre declaration by Nick Clegg that they’d not form a coalition government with Labour; clearly a “Yes Minister” moment.
This does allow us to predict that this GE campaign will be the nastiest and most negative event for some considerable time in British Politics as the alliance members scramble to scrape up enough votes to secure a hung parliament.
It should also forewarn the David Cameron to prep himself for ambush as well as the normal stuff on the televised debates towards the end of the GE campaign.
It should be noted: the Lib Dems will be taking suicidal risks to finally secure some actual power, which should offer the Tories many opportunities to inflict telling damage.
I, myself have a great deal of fun with people who dislike me by feeding them negative stories about me with ever increasing levels of preposterous content. Never underestimate your enemies’ capacity to believe the most implausible story about you so long as it is negative! Many a giggle I’ve had at their gormlessness.
However, this is not what the Tories should do. They should hit the Lib Dems long and hard with theme “A vote for Lib Dems is a vote for Gordon Brown”. There aim should be to goggle up all of the anti-Gordon/anti-Labour votes available by stating that Lib Dems will keep Gordon and Labour in power. It could also have added benefit of taking up to 20 seats of the Lib Dems at GE as voters are repelled by Clegg selling his party’s soul for power.
re 64 - another richard… Over a 1000 job losses in a town the size of Loughborough will impact heavily on the election, I would guess. Andy Reed, Labour, has been a very good MP in his constituency - but with a majority of just under 2,000 (if I remember correctly) he was already in the chopping zone - along with Piety Palmer from just up the road who has a similar vulnerable majority. A while back I was wondering whether to take a punt on Reed bucking the odds at the election, but after the AstroZeneca shutdown… I don’t think so…
133 DavidL - Assuming this is not a private poll, if they publish that question, are they not libelling Lord Ashcroft?
Overall, though, I think antifrank is right. The public don’t care, and even if they did, the Electoral Commission ruling closes down the issue.
Jack W is of course right that the Tories have lost a week (in addition to the week already lost on Bullygate), which might have been used more productively. However, the campaign proper hasn’t started, and the leaders’ debates will re-focus attention on the three parties’ messages.
Contrary to BenM’s bizarre statement at 82, there are at least two big set-pieces which Brown has to negotiate and which are much more important than Chilcot. The Budget is the key one, and the leaders’ debates the secondary one.
In fairness to Labour I can see why they have pressed so hard on Ashcroft and it has had a few useful consequences. Firstly it has deflected from Brown’s appearance today at Chilcot. Blair was subject to a huge media build up beforehand. Brown is almost sneaking in by the back door in comparison. Secondly it has dominated the news agenda this week, stopping any momentum Cameron had been trying to initiate. Thirdly and most importantly it has made the Tories leadership look furtive and incompetent, something the electorate might take on board on May 6th.
I am less sure as regards the benefit for my own party, the Lib Dems, as I think it is vital in this election we keep our distance from this failed Labour administration. By all means tacitly support the gist of the attacks on the Tories but let Labour do the running would have been my approach.
151 TGHF
It rather puts the rest of Brown’s so called I save the economy in to context.
Real economy still in recession, job cuts on their way and a huge and negative adjustment to the standard of living to be had once the GE is out of the way.
Voters have yet to walk to the edge of the cliff and look over it.
151 You’re right that GDP is overrated. But private sector GDP would be a very good thing to measure. Spend, spend, spend would only minimally move it along. A government that targeted long term private sector GDP gtowth would achieve much.
The Ashcroft affair highlights the scandal of how the super rich get away with paying minimal tax at the expense of the rest of us:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-the-worst-thing-about-ashcroft-is-that-his-behaviour-is-legal-1916391.html
144. I would agree with that assessment of QE. But Harry at 151. has a point.
Let’s be clear this was an emergency measure aimed at preventing a slide into a vicious deflationary spiral; we still face a huge challenge to generate sustained healthy growth going forward.
154 rod
but it’s not just Leicstershire it across the Midlands.
165 jobs gone at Stadco Coventry
150 jobs gone at Cadbury
another company I know has started a process to reduce jobs by 500.
Each one of these is not just a voter but a family and their friends.
The Govt.is trying to keep its head down on this until the GE and is afraid of it becoming an issue
79. Antifrank. As that is so counter intuitive can you explain why? 90% of the posters on here deal in prejudice not logic but you aren’t one of them.
158. I would imagine that would make ugly reading.
Randall worth a read today as always.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/7370619/A-claim-of-patriotism-is-the-last-refuge-of-a-busted-government.html
Also from last night - posters wondering why Adonis was on - I think this is a deliberate tactic from Labour to put up Lords who people do not directly equate with the Brown regime - so any anger is skewed away from Brown’s inner circle.
Also as a Con voter - can we have Shirley Williams on every week please - another bright young thing of change for the LDs - they seem to be reliant on greying pensioners.
Thinker @153: They should hit the Lib Dems long and hard with theme “A vote for Lib Dems is a vote for Gordon Brown”
This may be a good election strategy, but it has a practical downside; Mike’s been suggesting that since in a Hung Parliament Labour is likely to have lost to the Tories in votes, the Tories will be able to say that they have a mandate and Labour don’t.
But if they’ve spent the previous three weeks telling everyone “Vote yellow, get Brown”, they’ll hardly be in a position to complain if, having heard their advice and persisted in voting yellow, the voters get Brown.
To put Lord Ashcroft into context.
He has apparently, legally avoided paying £127m in taxes.
In the fiscal year 2009/10, the government is borrowing £127m every 6hrs.
87: Stuart Dickson
Wales only poll was discussed on Dragon’s Eye last night. Also Peter Hain being hammered by a lady presenter.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006mvzk
Local sources in Ceredigion predict that the Lib Dems wil hold the seat with a majority of 1000-3000. I am having breakfast with their MP in the next two weeks and so may be able to reveal more.
Stuart, do you believe that the SNP demise in the polls is genuine and if so, what is the cause, and to what extent will they recover at the GE?
144
“It would appear”
That reads like you didn’t know that £200bn was a big number…
Mind you, don’t feel bad - millions of similarly ill-informed Britons are absurdly giving Brown credit for some kind of “economic recovery” which is anything but
159: God Hari is economically inept.
‘The invaluable Tax Justice Network has calculated that rich individuals “avoid” £13bn a year and rich corporations £12bn. (Indeed, a third of Britain’s top 700 companies haven’t paid any tax at all.) That’s enough to double the education budget – or to pay off Britain’s entire deficit in seven years without a single dent in public spending.’
Another one which doesn’t understand the different between ‘debt’ and ‘deficit’.
re:154. I have long had ties with Loughborough, indeed, I still have a lot of friends and family in the area. I’d suggest Andy Reed has been a bit of a nondescript sort of MP, a few planted questions at PMQs, in the local papers kissing babies, not an extreme trougher, but still tainted none the less.
Loughborough town centre is a grim place indeed, lots of empty shops and tired, pot holed roads. Tesco has 2 giant stores in the town, one recently opened in the grave of a Woolies store, and is sucking the life out of many smaller businesses.
The closing of Astra is a hammer blow for the town, not just in direct jobs, but in the support jobs ( the local builders who sub-contract to the site, the local pubs and eateries/fast food vans dotted around the site that feed staff and workers from the trading estate etc.) All the big employers of the town have withered and died. The town is only supported by the University, which means all affordable houses are snapped up by landlords for student lets. A grim end for the town of my birth.
76 Roger
‘I think you can say the same of Cameron’s involvement in the bullingdon club. What sort of person would want to join that kind of club?’
David Dimbelby.
“156 In fairness to Labour I can see why they have pressed so hard on Ashcroft and it has had a few useful consequences. Firstly it has deflected from Brown’s appearance today at Chilcot. Blair was subject to a huge media build up beforehand. Brown is almost sneaking in by the back door in comparison. Secondly it has dominated the news agenda this week, stopping any momentum Cameron had been trying to initiate. Thirdly and most importantly it has made the Tories leadership look furtive and incompetent, something the electorate might take on board on May 6th.”
Precisely. An excellent summing-up of the issue.
162..cont. antifrank. I’ve just seen your answer to someone else. If you were judging Big Brother I’d agree with you. I don’t think when you are deciding who to vote for minor players being hysterical count for much. Whether a section of voters think Ashcroft tells them something about a bigger picture I don’t know but it might.
171: Problem is, that doesn’t say much about labour in the first place. They’re still desperatly trying to hide the fact they have no policies, nor any plan going forward.
No wonder no party is trying so hard to say nothing at all, at the point in time when they really, really should be.
#168 That really is dire from Hari.
157
The impact on the standard of living is likely to last for decades. Other countries will not be standing still and if the UK is the last of the G20 to exit recession, with a long, slow climb in growth awaiting us, we will have successfully reclaimed our spot as ‘The Sick Man of Europe’.
172 Roger - There is, though, some evidence to support the proposition that the public dislike and react against over-the-top attacks, especially when these are personalised. The Sun attack on Brown’s letter to the soldier’s widow, and Bullygate, seem if anything to have helped Brown. The sheer shrillness, obsessiveness, and obvious hypocrisy of the attacks on Ashcroft risk provoking a similar reaction if they continue any longer.
Is the strike of 270,000 public sector workers still going ahead next week?
On topic, I thought the issue with the YouGov polling was why it hadn’t changed it’s weightings from circa 2005. There is an argument to be made that the relative turnout by party ID will simply revert back to 2005 levels, but in the run-up to a “change” election, and when the raw unweighted samples are showing a clear and systemic under response by the Loyal Labour ID sample versus the 2005 levels, it needs explaining.
Off topic, thanks for other posters flagging up the Gus O’Donnell advice on a hung parliament yesterday.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/feb/14/queen-power-hung-parliament
IMO, in a hung parliament scenario, if there is any chance whatsoever that Labour, the Lib Dem’s and sundry others can muster 325 seats, then as the rules clearly allow, Gordon Brown will sit tight in Downing St and likely cut all manner of deals behond closed doors in an effort to keep Cameron out of Downing St, including PR and most likely the “Miliband option”.
If I was in Tory central office I’d be right out there throughout the campaign pushing the line that the only guaranteed way to get Labour out is to give the Tories a clear majority, and that a hung parliament, unless the Tories are only just shy, will result in a botched Lab/Lib/Other coalition with an “unelected” Lab PM.
168. “Another one which doesn’t understand the different between ‘debt’ and ‘deficit’.”
Well spotted.
The Tories must translate what is happening economically into a form people can understand, they can not rely on the press to do the job, as clearly Hari is yet another “journalist” who has not got a clue.
I believe if people truly understood what has happened and is likely to happen to our economy Labour would be finished.
159.
As soon as I read “brilliant financial expert Richard Murphy” it was obvious this article is a crock of sh*t.
The super-rich can live and spend where they like. You can either choose to get *some* tax or nothing. The attractions of living in England during a wet winter are not so obvious that a billionaire would choose to endure them and pay Hari or Murphy’s idea of *fair* tax - meaning much more than they do now.
And Murphy and Hari’s answer? To trample all over the sovereign rights of other territories around the world and make them levy tax the way Hari and Murphy wish so as to catch these people in a global tax net of their choosing.
As for the US tax example, I find it hard to imagine a more crudely designed system of state-enforced robbery of citizens who either choose or need to live and work outside the US than that of taxing them as if they were still earning and living in the States.
Of course there’s a simple answer. But it won’t appeal to Hari. Instead of taxing income, tax spending.
what the hell is Brown waffling on about?
165 - Good point, well made. Thanks for that. On the basis of your impeccable logic, I intend to stop paying taxes altogether as my total contribution over the rest of my life will probably only amount to 3.4 seconds worth.
175 BP
yes but only a Labour govt could get us there. It’s a seventies re-run, cue tank tops and the Bay City Rollers.
I think people will only begin to see the drop when they go on holiday ( those that can afford it ) and realise that eating out is incredibly expensive, drinks are prohibitive and the brits are poorer than the germans and french.
I’d imagine the Cameroons are hidden away panicking but they shouldn’t be imo. If anything i’d say they should be thinking of trying to string the story along a bit.
*If* ZNL-BBC by some miracle can make the punters take notice of this story then that’d mean they’d also be receptive to any other story going relating to party donors, non-doms etc so all the cash for honours, mafia casino and indian billionaire stories can be dusted off for a second go.
180: To most accountants, Richard Murphy is just a joke.
Brown going down the Jack Straw filibuster route ?
173
The plans for the parties (except possibly Clegg’s Lib/Dems - Cable’s Lib/Dems are in the Labour boat) are the same.
Labour has the disadvantage that it was Brown’s incompetence that has trashed the economy and they will be given no room to manouvre by the markets.
But, and I say this again, the Conservatives would come into power and they will make mistakes - because all newly elected governments make mistakes.
Will this affect my vote against Labour?
No.
I do not believe Labour should be rewarded for wilful, gross stupidity and incompetence
151 This recovery is at least in part a recovery on paper. There’s not been anything terribly impressive in terms of proper growth. The figures are nudged into positive territory by the increase in government spending. As you point out the cost has been colossal, and the interest charges on the accumulated debt will hold back future growth. Hopefully we are on an upwards path now, but if we’re not then there is no way we can splurge any more. Personally I think the wisest choice would have been to do somewhat less on the way down and have waited for the economy to stablise before putting in the cash. Certainly the VAT change was just money down the drain.
152 Yes BOE has made noises that suggest they could restart. I wonder if Darling will come up with some wheeze like ‘budgetary easing’ that allows him to print money along the same lines.
Morning All,
Quick visit, selling the house and have a viewing tomorrow so need to get the place spick and span….
156. Alternatively, you could argue it was the perfect opportunity to clear the decks of the Ashcroft issue. You have an event prior to the announcement which is highly likely to improve the Conservative standing (and buffer any negative reaction) and within days you have an issue which is bound to draw a line under it (Brown at Chilcot). Presumably Ashcroft and others would have had a good idea what the Electoral Commission decision would likely be in advance. So the combination of the Electoral Commission announcement and the Brown interview will likely close it down as there does not seem to be any smoking gun..
Now so far none of the stuff dug up on Ashcroft seems to matter. Those opposed to the current Government take a similar line as Vordeman last night and those opposed to the Conservatives have indulged in an orgy of hysteria whilst they have had a chance to. However, the polls, for what they are, do not seem to have budged and consequently this seems to be viewed in the big wide world as just another piece of insular Westminster village navel gazing.
Toodle Pip for now….
183
Did you have to mention the Bay City Rollers?
188: The VAT change was becuase labour were desperate at the time for ‘global stimulus’ and the VAT change was our bit.
Really did it make much difference? I seriously doubt it.
187 BP
It really beggars belief just how badly Brown has managed the economy. Like most egotists he came to believe his own b\s.
Somehow he managed to carry on the theme that borrowing and spending as if there was no tomorrow was economic competence.
The thing that really annoys me is given the massive outlays on tax, borrow and spend this country has nothing to show for it. We could have had a world class transport system, actually PAID for the schools, as many aircraft carriers and helicopters as we want.
Instead we have 8 million economically inactive citizens encouraged to sit at home while immigrants are brought in to do their work. The waste is stupendous.
Eagle. “He has apparently, legally avoided paying £127m in taxes.
In the fiscal year 2009/10, the government is borrowing £127m every 6hrs”
that’s one way of looking at it. Another is you could have supplied 126 hospitals with MRI scanners. I’ll bet the Labour and Lib Dem candidates in marginal constituencies go for the scanners. The bastards!!
I see they’ve started to question Nixon, I mean Brown
191 slackbladder
the VAT cut was a pretty brainless idea which simply pushed up our borrowing requirement. Most of Europe just laughed the idea out of court and thought the brits had truly lost the plot.
193 - He has legally arranged his financial affairs so as to pay the minimum amount of tax. What is wrong with this?
158. You can measure the public sector’s direct contribution to GDP through government consumption and investment, though it’s not a precise calculation.
And the results are ugly - in fact depending on your assumptions for import shares in government spending and consumption, the private sector may still have been in recession in 2009Q4.
The good tv manufacturers of Schenzen and the auto makers of Stuttgart were grateful however.
Saving the world one competitor at a time.
Listening to Brown at Chilcott it struck me what a limited political vocabulary he has - repetition of ‘action’, ‘the action we had taken’, the necessary action’, repetition of his view of a new world, in this case ‘post Cold War’ and need for global community, globalisation of the issues, personalisation (perhaps as its him being questionned not entirely surprising) with lots of “I” & “my”. It’s the use of this repetitive vocabulary has worked well for him across issues, I wonder how much it shows a particular very settled mind set.
His blatant attempt at start to lay down the three areas he thought the Committee should question him on, and his tieing back his reponses to those is a good strategy, will it come off?
Congratulations Mike, it looks as though a new career as a polling expert journalist is upon you.
On thread I am frankly now lost with pollsters. YouGov has become like that Japanese weed which is clogging our inland waterways, thriving but deadly because it is choking out everything else.
Even if YouGov started showing 10+% Tory leads I would frankly simply not know whether to believe them and put any faith in them.
To my mind Peter Kellner was good enough to come on to PB on Tuesday but then treated us like village idiots by refusing to answer any of the obvious questions. Did none of his flunkies think to look back at the recent Angus Reid session and see the sort of questions being asked? Does YouGov not actually pay any attention to what is being said about it on PB? As I said earlier in the week, no serious PBer suggests anything improper or sinister on the part of YouGov with its new methodology but refusing to explain it or defend it just leaves YouGov open to attacks that it has gone back to the 1992 future.
Like others I put faith in ICM. It seems to be the Marks and Spencer of the polling industry. Never terribly trendy or exciting but always there with a reputation for quality.
I am “excited” by Angus Reid and the approach it is adopting. I hope it proves to have been a good move by them moving into British polling and I would like to see a major newspaper pick them as preferred pollster.
I know many PBers have little faith in ComRes and both Ipsos-Mori and Populus have come in for criticism. I only have experience of TNS in the Scottish context and think it is a joke. However that is possibly coloured by the fact whenever they contact me on any topic, it is an overseas student on a work placement who is following a script with no deviations.
Perhaps it is time for the BPC to consider adopting a standard method of adjustment and then requiring all pollsters to publish the unedited data, the data as adjusted to the BPC standard and finally as adjusted to its own standard. At least then we would have a commonly calculated set of information to genuinely compare all the pollsters.
Finally I just dont know what the nexts et of polls will bring. Anecdotal experience tells me Ashcroft and Bullygate are at best marginal influences and that the overwhelming majority of people who usually vote already know how they are voting. Until we see some major event or dynamic headline grabbing election push by one party or another I simply do not think we will see anything other than margin of error stuff departing from 40/30/20/10 UK wide.
As for last night’s Question Time, I thought Boris did okay, Shirley Williams just showed she was a rather fine politician from another generation now past, Andrew Adonis seemed to be a decent chap out of his depth and genuinely stunned at some of the anti-Labour attacks.
Will Self struck me as an extremely well read leftie who can argue his case but the star was Carol Vorderman. She just blew the politicians away. I would love to see her in a debate with Peter Mandelson. He wouldn’t stand the remotest chance against her.
I was impressed that both Will Self and Carol Vorderman had clearly either done a great deal of research or are serious followers of political news. Both had considerable grasp of facts and of course figures. If she is working with Michael Gove then post GE there may be some considerable hope for the English education system.
197 runnymede
given the downward revision of Q4 output it is highly likely the private sector was still contracting.
176. Richard. Couldn’t agree with you more. It sounds shrill. I can only agree with someone upthread that it must be a Labour diversion. The Guardian are doing a far better job than Labour ever could in finding new angles and without the distasteful opportunism.
201. Unless Q3 has further revisions down too
Is it me or is Brown being rather shameless at Chilcot? (only caught 5 mins just now in car - but wow what a guy)
200. re Vorderman - the elephant in the room is the political journo’s - when are the public going to see that the reason they dont hear about policies is that in the main 25 minute news programme they have 3-4 mins of toenails telling us what it all means - a simple 1 minute interview with each of the parties would be much more informative - Robbo’s face should never appear on camera IMHO.
Perhaps its time to shoot the messenger ?
Not sure if this has been posted yet but it is an interesting signpost towards the post-Lisbon EU. The first serious proposal for a tax raised and spent solely by the EU and not by member states. A big shift in responsibility and power from the latter to the former.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/7370614/EU-draws-up-plans-for-first-direct-tax-with-fuel-levy.html
203 TGHF
The issue I still struggle to come to terms with is how long will it take us to get out of this mess ? The difference between now and 1992 or 1981 is the size of the productive sector.
I have no issue with Sterling being priced to get us back into exporting, it’s just that I can’t see we have enough to export as compared to the past. The service sector is large but basically driven by borrowed money. The services we export must be struggling as they are chiefly financial services which are flat on the floor for the foreseeable future.
170 JohnF. I’m ashamed to admit that it did make me see Dimbleby in a slightly different light. Less so than Cameron because Dimbleby joined in an age when class values hadn’t been changed radically by the ’60’s and ’70’s’.
207. We need massive business tax cuts - simples. No point on having high rates of tax on a small number.
206. There would appear to be some confusion on this, they had the same story on Radio 4 Today and a Swedish Anti-Tax spokeman stated that while it was a step on the road to harmonisation(which he opposed), the money would still go the member states not directly to the EU
201. There hasn’t been a downward revision yet old chap. And we don’t have final figures for government investment in Q4 either, so these are only sketchy estimates.
The more interesting thing is to look at just how deep the trough is in ‘private sector’ GDP - the year-on-year decline at its worst last year was over 8% compared to 6% for total GDP.
So last year we had the economy heavily propped by the public sector, directly. And of course indirectly via the VAT cut and monetary policy the prop was even greater.
All these supports will fall away this year - can the economy bear it?
209 TGHF
also need a substantial reduction in the amount of regulation. Less regulation means more time to get on with real work and not having to finance civil servants to administer it.
Just spent a few minutes explaning in Johann Hari’s page why he’s a brainless moron but it was blocked by my IT people
Anyone fancy posting something on his article in words of one syllable the difference between debt and deficit? The poor boy is just embarrassing himself.
213. Hari’s understanding of economics is about at the level of the mould I just scraped off the cistern in my outhouse.
210. For such a levy, I suspect that the money would have to be spent by member states but it is still a big change of principle even if that is the case, arguably more so.
Until now the EU has always been funded by member states, if this proposal goes through then member states will start to be funded by the EU. One doesn’t want to get too emtoive but it could be interpreted as akin to central government providing the money for local government.
To give the EU tax-gathering powers of its own, however the money is spent, is a big change in the balance of power and why, I suspect, the British government is dead opposed to it. I’m not sure if this is a QMV issue, though, because if it is then we have not power to veto it.
211 runnymede
only if the productive sector is recovering quickly enough and the state sector shrinking in parallel to reduce the general tax and borrowing burden.
213. St Jude is the patron saint of lost causes - perhaps a little prayer of Mr Hari is the kindest offering - I fear he is beyond salvation
Screaming E the figure you quote for Lord A is from the Guardian isn’t it?
If anyone knows the business affairs of the man outside the UK well enough to know how much he earned and so should pay if he were taxable in UK it will be his accountants, not the Guardian, MandyPandy or the Corbyman.
Someone might like to do the same calculation for Lord Paul, that pillar of the Privy Council. After all he has plenty having claimed nearly 300k in expenses - Ashcroft nil - and asset stripped at a great rate of knots.
- and more verbage about Brown and the military…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7371543/Army-denied-vital-equipment-in-Iraq-and-Afghanistan-claims-former-SAS-head.html
212. regulation = taxes by another name.
193
Alternatively, if he was made to pay that £127M, he maybe wouldn’t have bothered ever coming to the UK, would have stayed entirely in Belize, and we would have received NOT EVEN the taxes he DOES pay here. Because he is not stupid.
Lefties’ tax take calculations for tax changes which assume no change in behaviour of the taxed post-change always make me laugh.
Easterross. Very disappointed to discover Carol Vordeman is a Tory. I did a commercial with her recently and she was very helpful and obliging.
Had I known of course I would have gone for blue lipstick.
quiet and civilised in here today - must be the lack of bot rot.
209 We need massive business tax cuts - simples. No point on having high rates of tax on a small number.
It makes perfect sense: unfortunately to one Mr. Brown this represents a huge giveaway to the few, not the many.
Sounds familiar - beeb blog.
“1044 Sir Roderic asks whether there was a “current threat” of aggression from Iraq in March 2003. Mr Brown doesn’t answer that directly, but repeats his previous point that some countries were not prepared to take action under any circumstances. Sir Roderic asks again - but again the PM answers in a different way, choosing to focus on the obligation he felt the international community had to “deal with problems of rogue states”. Sir Roderic even asks the question a third time, but the answer is the same.”
222 Roger
but Tories are always helpful and obliging. Perhaps if you are having difficulties with left-wing luvvies you should recruit more Tories for you shoots.
213, 214. What is just as disappointing as Hari’s economic illiteracy is that of the sub-editors who allowed it through. Why did no-one say to him, “er, this is rubbish, go and rewrite this bit”.
Plus education spending last year was 78.9bn so the idea that £25bn would double the education budget is more arrant nonsense from one of the left’s iconic columnists.
222. Roger - surely no surprise that someone with a basic level of arithmetic is not pro-Brown.
Darling quoted £42BN as our payments in interest this year - you don’t even need Carol’s experience of Ocean Finance to see that is a large number..
After 5 tries Brown finally sort of answers the question as to whether he knew what Blair told Bush in 2002. He didn’t know.
Wonder what other celebrities support parties that you wouldn’t expect from them?
227. What makes you think the subeditors have any more idea than he does?
Tim B
I think we need to take into account that the left gets its votes from :
the people who want to tell everybody what to do .
the people who want to be told what to do.
That’s why Brown can’t countenance letting people keep and spend their own earnings is an option
159 “Ashcroft pays minimal tax” ….I bet it would spoil your breakfast if the Revenue sent you his UK bill instead.
214. Runnymede. “…..cistern in my outhouse”
Is that the outhouse that houses the orangery?
227 If the sub-editors cut out the rubbish from Hari’s columns, there wouldn’t be a lot left.
Yougov’s latest survey today is loaded with questions such as “what is the reason for the weakness in the Conservatives vote”?
1) eating too many baies, 2) Eating 2 babies a day, 3) leaving only the bits of babies on the plate.
It would be hard to find a more leading set of questions. Is Stephen Shakespeare asleep or has he switched to UKIP?
Yougov’s latest survey today is loaded with questions such as “what is the reason for the weakness in the Conservatives vote”?
1) eating too many babies,
2) Eating 2 babies a day,
3) leaving only the bits of babies on the plate.
It would be hard to find a more leading set of questions. Is Stephen Shakespeare asleep or has he switched to UKIP?
233 – Roger, what has come over you – that was actually witty ;(
230
Jeremy Clarkson the Green Party ?
roger with a small’r’. Have we been introduced?
Wrong Roger. You don’t get any wit from me!
George O has made a commitment to start the reduction of corporation tax by making internal shifts away from the typical Brownian overcomplicated allowances. But it will need to go further.
Tax cuts which target real investment - not Brownian nonsense, the real deal - is important if we are to rebuild the economy. Labour have flagged up their detachment from this need by twice recently jacking up the tax on employment. Exactly the wrong way to go.
Tories: cut spending, cut employment taxes, cut investment restrictions, restore a sensible corporate tax level to attract new investment and retain current successful business. More jobs, more business, more profit, more tax take, less debt.
Labour: raise taxes, reduce confidence, lose business to other countries, lose jobs, less tax take, increase borrowing, less wealth, IMF.
240 Roger
I thought roger with a small ‘r’ was a verb ?
234. No Roger - logs and discarded children’s toys. I’m sure by your standards it’s pretty squalid.
TSE - - Tim, Blair survived Cash for Honours.
Are you saying this is bigger than cash for honours?
No, but I’m saying its as if not more dangerous as we’re only two months from an election.
This is the last thing the Tories want.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/03/05/william-hague-is-the-political-disaster-who-brought-us-lord-ashcroft-115875-22086994/
with the article about the Southern Poverty Law Center and their ‘hate groups’ above, it’s a good job snow isn’t black
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7369191/Naked-snow-sculpture-covered-up-after-neighbours-complain.html
Just been doing a YouGov poll (before it crashed!). Sorry to have to join in the general unhappiness with that organization, but I did find the flavour of the questions a bit unbalanced. Here’s an example.
QUOTE
The Conservatives accuse Labour of hypocrisy because it has rich “non-doms” among its donors. What is your view?
1) Labour has non-dom donors but none of them are in a position of such influence as Lord Ashcroft
2) Both parties are as bad as each other
3) Don’t know
END-QUOTE
Shouldn’t there be an option 4? e.g.
“4) Labour has taken more from non-dom donors and the Conservatives charges of hypocrisy are correct”
243. Alanbrooke. It is. will you delicately explain that to him and he might change his username. Tell him about Cap’n Pugwash….
It’s interesting watching Gordon Brown on the Chilcott Inquiry and it may be useful guide to how he copes with the TV debates. He seems to have an complete inability to give a simple answer; be it Yes or No and that’s sure to come across badly and make him look a little “shifty”
245, oh noes, how will the Conservatives survive without the support of the Mirror?!?!?!!
Has Kevin Maguire switched to supporting Labour?!
Please keep us up to date with what Britain’s premier newspaper is thinking, tim, it’s really appreciated.
By the way, is there a smiley or code for ‘bloody sarcastic’?
Oh, and tim, how many dead Britons do you think there are because Brown couldn’t be arsed funding a war properly? A dozen? A score? Fifty? I know this pales into insignificance besides the news that a rich man paid taxes legally and donated to a political party legally, but if you can find time in your hectic schedule to answer I’d be really grateful. Cheers.
245: Oh no…an anti Tory article in the Mirror!!! It’s a disaster!
248 Roger
LOL !
211 Runnymede
“201. There hasn’t been a downward revision yet old chap.”
I assume he is referring to the absolute GDP for Q4 which was revised down although growth was revised up due to lower GDP levels in previous quarters
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100004040/dont-be-fooled-gdp-was-actually-revised-down/
247. Have Labour taken more from non-dom donors - is Ashcroft their only non-dom donor? I am genuinely asking as the Tories have made a lot of the fact that Labour non-dom donors have given more than Ashcroft alone, but is he alone as the only Tory donor of that tax status?
Lyle: Were you aware that Robin Cook had challenged the basis of the intelligence before March, 2003?
Brown: No,I don’t recall him saying that
Brown: Was kept “fully updated” by Blair on preperations for war
Brown four-square behind Blair’s Iraq policy, from all his answers so far..
The one thing we did get from Peter Kellner is that the firms takes ultimate responsibility for the questions in its poll.
Which I suppose goes for every pollster.
Disappointing.
Though FWIW, I would be very surprised indeed if we didn’t see a narrowing from ICM and Populus
254 PL
given Lord P claimed there were 100 nondoms in the HoL I suspect no-one knows.
Sky have their Middle East expert Kay Burley presenting…
O
232
You forgot the people who like to see others ordered about by ‘their Big Mate’…
we’re talking about Chilcot and the economy today tim - sorry old thing.
258 Be fair, she is the Middle East, Kittens, Crochet and Naomi Campbell expert
My computer’s gone a little loopey.
Come on Morris Dancer. Don’t tell me you didn’t laugh at this from the Mirror article
“The Original Tory Boy who tried to win the yoof vote by wearing a baseball cap to the Notting Hill Carnival and a theme park, only for Tory writer Simon Heffer to say he resembled “a child molester on day release”".
Gordon Brown’s testimony will be all to familiar to any journalist who has had the privilege to interview him. Rather than open up, Brown has a habit of deciding what he wants to say and repeating it over and over and over again. Nothing diverts him.
In case you’ve missed today’s message, Brown desperately wanted a diplomatic solution to Iraq. Only after the French blocked this at the very last moment did war become necessary. International law needs to be upheld and so the Iraq war was justified.
Sir Rod Lyne asked the obvious question of what Tony Blair told him through the months of diplomacy ahead of war. Did he tell Brown what assurances he was giving the White House? Did he disclose what he promised with regard to military action in letters to President George Bush?
Brown dodged every question. Sir Rod kept on plugging away, asking for a “yes or no” answer. Brown just talked about the importance of diplomacy. Nothing would bring down the Brown defence. In the end he just said: “we talked about these issues. I don’t have copies of his letters and I don’t recall the exact comments and you would not expect me to.” Well that’s clear then.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/03/brown-he-definitely-likes-diplomatic-solutions/
re 149 Both decisions will force sufferers to use ineffective steroids
Not so there are plenty of NICE approved treatments for RA available in England and a large fraction of our drugs budget is spent on them every month.
260 BP
I tend to list that as a sexual preference rather than a political one !
257. If your hand slipped on the keyboard from the ‘n’ to a ‘c’ you could have created an even bigger scandal with that particular sentence Alan.
264 Roger
Heffer described himself thus ? Well I never. He does have an odd choice of apparel though.
There seems to be an inconsistency between Brown saying how extensively he planned for war and the post-war scenario, and how apparently dedicated they were to diplomatic solutions. Perhaps quite revealing was that diplomacy was going on at the last moment to get agreement, but of course the agreement they wanted was for support for war not peace. Doesn’t all hang together very well.
Brown is also obviously concerned about whether he let the MoD have the money they needed. Seems to be protesting his innocence a little too loudly.
I would say however that he is doing overall marginally better than I thought he would. Some hints of saving the world and megalomania though.
So, in the office I’ve got Chilcot on in the background and the effect of his warbling is rather soothing in a strange way: “I did not see that memo… International institutions of global cooperation… working more closely… build an international community… I did not see that memo… we’re dealing with instabilities that exist in certain parts of the world… for me the issue was are we as an international community prepared to… living in a post-cold war world…so, for me the issue goes back to… failed states… rogue states… must ensure no return to boom and bust.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/05/exclusive-no-live-blogging-of-brown-at-chilcot/
On Brown’s limited vocab and use of ‘I’ and ‘me’ a lot. Good point.
It was very obvious when both Cameron and Brown were asked to comment on a recent event. Can’t remember which one. Brown went on about how he felt and internalised whereas Cameron’s comments were very open and outward looking. I suspect it will be very obvious in the debates.
Brown has a massive ego. It’s hard to miss it.
264, I laughed and laughed, and then remembered the Government’s use of the armed forces like a joyridden car and Brown’s refusal to properly fund the military adventures Blair so enjoyed has cost the lives of many of the bravest and most patriotic British citizens.
Then I stopped laughing, and remembered why I loathe this government of bastards and incompetents so much.
264 - Maybe Mikes column is with the Mirror?
250/1 - Where the history of William Hagues career is written doesn’t matter, it’s in most newspapers.
The fact that it is there at all two months before an election is something that cannot help the Tories.
“….No, but I’m saying its as if not more dangerous as we’re only two months from an election.
This is the last thing the Tories want…..”
No, the last thing the tories want is to face an energised party with popular policies and a charismatic leader. Fortunately for them they have Labour and Brown.
255
Brown has a problem.
Does he follow Blair’s path through the minefield and accept his role as paymaster for the war?
Or does he strike out on a different course and distance himself from the decision and risk getting caught out?
Stenographer meltdown: every time Brown says “my role in this” she writes “my control in this”. Freudian #iraqinquiry
I used to enjoy the Indy and still must read Matthew Norman who can be very funny but Hari is just too irritating for words. Apart from his economic illiteracy there is the small point that Ashcroft must pay £30K a year plus tax on his UK income. Even if one assumes that he does not generate any income in the UK (which would be somewhat surprising given his invstments here) £30K alone puts him in the top 2% of income taxpayers in the UK. Plus him being here and spending his money must generate substantial indirect taxes such as VAT and all the other penalties we bear. Even this Government has accepted that the UK is a net gainer from the non-dom system. It really is pathetic and surely a sign this story is losing its last dregs of momentum.
271, whilst I agree Brown has an ego, it isn’t necessarily the case that ego causes self-reference all the time. I suspect it can be derived from an introverted, as well as or instead of an arrogant, personality. Brown’s an introvert as well as a tosspot, which would explain it (and he’s arrogant too).
267 PL
I think the generally accest definition of a nondom is
” when you defences against the consequences of a screw-up have a hole in them”
Chilcot needs someone with a spine to state the obvious, ‘You haven’t answered the question’.
271 - Where is Dave?
He’s hiding again today, hope he’s not getting in Ashcrofts helicopter to go to Bolton tonight.
“I did it for the UN” (my paraphrase) – that was Gordon Brown’s message to the Iraq inquiry. Others may have had other motivations – for me, it was all about protecting the rule of the UN.
The Iraq inquiry team really did try to get Mr Brown to say whether he knew Tony Blair was committed to war (assuming other avenues failed) as early as the spring of 2002.
Mr Brown doggedly dodged these questions – trying to emphasise his role as beancounter-in-chief at the Treasury and downplaying his role as joint godfather of New Labour and Tony Blair’s partner in government – but he did say he knew everything he needed to know.
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2010/03/05/brown-dodges-questions-on-blairs-commitment-to-war/
Ashcroft is the equivalent of the Howard Flight row, at the last election, or the Hutton enquiry, the year before it. It generated loads of excitement and shifted not a single vote. If Bearwood’s donations to the Conservatives really had been ruled illegal, then of course, that would have been dreadful for the party - but they weren’t.
IMHO, I can’t see anything wrong with the idea of non-doms contributing towards political parties in this country. What’s the big deal?
The Welsh poll shows the Conservatives up 8% since 2005, and Labour down 5%, something which I think Welsh Conservatives would be quite happy with, on polling day.
On topic, I expect that ICM and Populus will be in the same sort of ballpark as the others, perhaps with a slightly bigger Conservative lead.
O/T but I’m wondering will the post-election PB site be half as entertaining with the comments from Tim et al?
The YouGov polls are IMV not in line with what I hear from people up and down the UK. Sure, its fair to say they aren’t saying Cameron is the messiah, but they know they don’t want Brown. If the Tory’s get the “Vote yellow, get brown” message to stick in the marginals then the Election is won I’d say…
281 I am having lunch with him later.
You won’t come up in conversation.
Be interesting to see what this week will do for the leaders ratings won’t it Tory boys and girls.
Dave is managing to narrow the gap from the top down so efficiently, can he speed it up any further?
271
Solepsism.
There is only one inhabitant of Brownworld.
281: Maybe he’s busy working…you know, what normal people do.
Brown didn’t know Attorney General had changed his mind, in lead up to war. Didn’t know what Blair had promised Bush in Texas.
This is brilliant cabinet government.
gordo Brown - “it wasn’t me, I wasn’t there, I did not know”
What a hero
271 SallyC
It’s also Brown’s lack of humanity, I could imagine Ameron or Clegg calling Brown “Gordon” quite easily in the debates, but could see the word “David” or “Nick” stick in Brown’s throat and just not come out ( unless accompanied by a weird grin )
‘Mr Brown doggedly dodged these questions’.
Our left wing friends have been repeating the mantra [re Ashcroft] that if you’ve nothing to hide….
Which one of these guys is any good. I have forgotten his name.
285 - Yes, he’s avoiding serious questioning.
285, any chance you could ask about his policies regarding space cannons, Death Star fleets and enormo-haddock?
If you can get him to say he’ll fire Ed Balls into the heart of the sun I’m sure it’d help the Morley & Outwood effort
293 – tim, stop being a troll and join in with the discussions at hand.
293 Good summary of Chilcott this morning tim.
Brown - ‘I was in possession of enough information to allow me to just follow orders’
Merry Christmas, Mr Lawrence
293, obviously, there aren’t any serious questions to answer.
guidofawkes
Prediction : Gordon will say “It wasnae me, I didna know”. Macavity act.
Perhaps Dave is doing his tax return - very patriotic - that £42 Bn in interest payments due this year that Brown has racked up wont pay themseleves.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/brownometer/history
291 Brown also has a problem with eye contact. He only does it if its friendly.
290 Macavity Brown.
‘And when the Foreign Office finds a Treaty’s gone astray,
Or the Admiralty lose some plans and drawings by the way,
There may be a scap of paper in the hall or on the stair–
But it’s useless of investigate–Macavity’s not there!
And when the loss has been disclosed, the Secret Service say:
“It must have been Macavity!”–but he’s a mile away.’
295 - The discussion about how awful Brown is and who hates him the most?
Well thats all well and good, but the serious debate is why the gap has narrowed so rapidly between him and Cameron, with Brown now more trusted on economic recovery.
Any serious Tory on here would what to think about that.
Unfortunately there aren’t any on the thread yet.
Lets watch TV and reconvene at lunch, when you can give me your answer.
“I think it is a matter if importance that this matter be put to the Commons in the future so that matters of such, er, importance, can be discussed before we go to, go to, er, go to, go to war, and er…”
He is unbelievably inarticulate. Almost - sorry - autistic. He just IS.
If he’s like this in the debates it could be bad for Labour.
302 tim
LWGAF
286 Well, if he’s level-pegging with Brown in Wales, I suspect his rating across the UK is pretty good, wouldn’t you say?
Looooooooooool Gordo cocking up live on tv re which countries would not agree to war
“Which countries?”
“Which countries?”
“Which countries?”
Why not just answer a simple question.
This kind of thing looks horrendous.
306 Floater
was the UK one of them ?
302, not just who hates Brown the most and why, but how many servicemen ended up needlessly dying because Brown refused to provide the necessary funds.
Still, feel free to ignore the needless and avoidable deaths of British citizens to endlessly repeat the same spin lines, tim. I’m sure endless repetition will prove utterly convincing to the average pber.
Ironic you keep avoiding answering the above question whilst crying because Cameron supposedly avoiding difficult questions.
“with Brown now more trusted on economic recovery”
He isn’t (as you know). The seats in question gave Labour an 11% majority at the last election.
302: This is important tim, if he can’t cope with the softballs thrown at him by Chilcote, how’s he going to come in a tv debate.
Of course, I know your desperate for people to actually ignore your dear leader…but still.
Is tim getting annoyed because we wish to discuss our Prime Minister’s neglect of the armed forces and involvement in ‘mispeaking’ to the nation over a war and his complete failure to account for his actions, instead of discussing ‘important matters’ like leader ratings in a poll?
When Blair appeared at Chilcot - hate him or loathe him - he had the courage to say ‘I did what I thought was right - Me! I did it!’
What a weak-willed, two-bit, bullying-by-proxy, self-absorbed, spineless PoS Brown is.
308 - “was the UK one of them ?”
Gordo unfortunately wasn’t there, didn’t see anything and alas does not know.
302 tim
Labour are more trusted on the economy because vast quantities of people are epically stupid like Johann Hari and think that somehow printing almost unimaginable quantities of money, and borrowing a similar amount, and pumping that into the economy to achieve a frankly pathetic 0.3% rise in GDP (the US is growing at an annualised 5%+ with its unsutainable stimuli) SOMEHOW constitutes “economic recovery” and they are laughably giving Brown credit for this.
Tories should be, but inexplicably are not, attacking the govt on this and nailing their lies and incompetence.
In this, you have a valid criticism of Cameron and I will be extremely disappointed if he manages to let Brown and Labour get away with it.
Foundations starting to falter.
Brown struggling to keep his temper under control
Any other live blogs of Chilcott other than the Beeb ?
The thing is that Brown talks in a way that is very hard to listen to so it’s very hard to digest what he is saying.
Test for anyone who has watched since the start: name 5 things Brown has said so far (excluding the last 5 minutes which are fresher in the memory).
I suspect it will be the same in the debates. People won’t take in anything that he says.
314 - following on from that the only thing he does seem to know is that he made enough money available.
Of course most people would disagree with that but Clown Brown does have a different view of reality.
Brown supprted war because he says other countries on the Security Council had made clear they were not then prepared to carry out Res. 1441. When pressed by Lyne, he claimed France & Germany were the countries. (Germany was then not on the Security Council) Brown hadn’t been told that that French government had directly contacted No. 10 to say Pres. Chirac’s words were being mistranslated by the government.
It gets worse…
The LDs should send an edited version of this out in all the LD/LAB marginals.
317 Glen OGlaza is blogging for Brown on Sky
302. tim the reason the gap has narrowed both in headline terms and on economic is because labour have a very simple and effective message which they have repeated again and again and again: “We are supporting the economy through recession. It’s too early to cut now.”
The Tories message has been confused and less clear, partly because they are actually thinking about how to address the deficit, but that doesnt make for a clear and effective message. They talk about gilt strikes and deficits, all of which are a worry but don;t resonate with the public decause they dont really understand them.
They need a simple message to repeat again and again. Something perhaps like: “We are borrowing too much, we need to start reducing that sensibly now under the Tories or we will have to cut drastically later under Labour”.
catherine_mayer
Wrong to say Brown is distancing himself from decision to go to war. Brown is distancing himself from parts of the decision to go to war
Will be very interesting to how forces families react to this crap.
Will Roger need to refer to them as shits?
I wonder also what the papers will make of this poorly presented drivel
I am waiting for him to say that this “started in America”
317 That will be a waste of time then. Martin thingy??? tall grey hair about 40, on Sky, knows this stuff inside out.
I do wonder whether we have underestimated the damage the debates might do to Labour. Everyone on here is very used to how Brown comes across, but maybe the average voter won’t be.
glenoglaza
#iraq Brown windscreen-wiping, trying to put Iraq invasion in post cold war world. Lyne dragging him back to the issue at hand!
317. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/mar/05/gordon-brown-chilcot-inquiry-live
328, sounds like Mr. Dickson’s notion of the Brown Epiphany.
328 - Very little impact imo, the average voter won’t be listening.
328 RN
Richard do you think the average voter will actually watch them ( as opposed to the edited highlights )?
I find PMQs mindnumbing these days. 270 minutes of people saying nothing is beyond boredom.
328 - he truly is woeful at the best of times.
Get him out of his comfort zone and he is far far worse than that
Brown at Chilcot “I cannot take personal responsibility”
Story of his ‘kin life
Oh god, Brown used the phrase ‘new world order’…does he not get that’s not a good thing to say?
Brown: “I was chairman of the IMF at that time…….., I mean chairman of the IMF commitee”
“I saved the world”
ftwestminster
The Blame the French Strategy http://bit.ly/a2hHkV
Not watching Brown now but I’ve always been of the view that the debates are potentially calamitous for Labour. My reasoning is that Cameron will either be average or good, maybe even excellent. But he won’t have a shocker. Brown at best will be average and he is definitely in play for a shocker. Having said that, I don’t expect the debates to be sufficiently adversarial to be a game changer.
334, that’s unfair: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CND6i2o7tTE
Sorry, I tried to watch Brown/Chilcott honestly I really did, but had to give up. The mans voice is sooooooooooooooooooooooooo tedious.
Will have to distil what happened from the coverage tonight.
Political journalism, listening to Brown so you don’t have to.
Browns’ best public appearances have always been very carefully stage managed or with people who he trusts to help him out if he trips up.
Stutter rate increasing
Gordon Brown has denied claims he tried to restrict the money available to the military in the run-up to the Iraq war.
The-then Chancellor told the Iraq Inquiry that former Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon’s assertion that the Treasury was reluctant to provide cash for the conflict was incorrect.
“There should be no sense that there was any financial restraint in doing what was best for the military,” he told Sir John Chilcot’s committee.
“We had to support the military decision that was made and not rule out any option on financial grounds.”
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Gordon-Brown-Gives-Evidence-To-The-Iraq-Inquiry-PM-Denies-Restricting-Money-Available-To-Military/Article/201003115567610?f=rss
333 Alan - Well I was arguing yesterday that they would be boring so few people would watch. Certainly I can’t see many people watching all four and a half hours’ worth.
They will of course be heavily publicised, so I imagine quite a lot of people will watch at least parts of them. The question is not so much whether they will pay attention to the arguments as whether they will form an emotional judgement.
If Brown really cannot perform out of his comfort zone, what’s he going to do during the GE campaign?
Especially if/when he gets a curveball that he didn’t expect.
328. Indeed. If Brown was taking the decision today whether to do the debates I would say 100% he would refuse them.
He agreed solely because he was miles behind in the polls.
Undecided voters are going to decide on what they hear in the debates.
People on here focus a lot on expectations of debate performance. But an undecided voter who doesn’t follow politics closely isn’t going to have any expectations.
Remember - 90% of people in the UK do not know who George Osborne is. If you don’t even know who Osborne is are you going to have expectations of leaders’ debate performance?
Just logged on - how’s he doing ?
341 - yes it seems he can only write about courage not exhibit it
@catherine_mayer don’t think he’s distancing from the decision - he’s distancing himself from bits that went wrong (equipment/aftermath)
M,m,m,m,m,m Mr Speaker
Oh shit, where’s Mr Speaker when I need him?
Have been listening all morning and he’s moving between wibbling, using his 5 standard cliches and avoiding the questions.
The contrast with Tony is amazing.
If he’s like this in the debates - God help the viewers, so turgid.
315. Within the next few months, two years at most, the scale of New Labour’s economic disaster will be truly exposed, unless something extraordinary intervenes. The reputation of the Labour party may never recover from this revelation.
The problem for Cameron and the Tories is that they need this fiscal epiphany to happen in the next eight weeks.
343, so who’s the liar, Hoon or Brown?
One of them must be.
Seems tim is out of his comfort zone too.
350 Correct, SeanT. In fact it is even worse than that; if the Tories do win, they may cop the blame rather than Labour.
351 - Thanks Plato ? I promised myself I would ignore it today…
347 - he is crap, just like usual.
So,can any one tell me why Labour thought he was the man to lead them and more worryingly our country.
Damaged, deluded, dysfunctional - thats Gordo
“295 - The discussion about how awful Brown is and who hates him the most?
Well thats all well and good, but the serious debate is why the gap has narrowed so rapidly between him and Cameron, with Brown now more trusted on economic recovery.
Any serious Tory on here would what to think about that.
Unfortunately there aren’t any on the thread yet.
Lets watch TV and reconvene at lunch, when you can give me your answer”
Although I am not a Tory I will offer one explanation of why the gap has narrowed and Labour’s polling position on the economy has improved.
The Tories have set down a clear dividing line, which is that they will reduce the deficit more quickly than Labour. This is a very silly position for them to take - for two reasons. One is that we don’t yet know how fast Labour proposes to reduce the deficit, so the Tories cannot know what they will have to do to better Labour’s deficit reductions. The second is that the Tories have tied themselves to a target which is under the control of their political opponents.
Consider. In the budget Darling will announce a series of cuts and tax rises aimed at reducing the deficit. The Tories will say that this is not enough - the deficit must be reduced more quickly. But how would they go about that? They have two options.
One is by making larger expenditure cuts than Labour proposes. But cuts are electorally unpopular - it is hard to go into an election campaign proposing larger cuts than either the current government or a significant body of eceonomic opinion thinks is necessary.
So the Tories could fall back on the second way in which the deficit could be cut - they could propose larger tax rises than Labour. But tax rises are electorally unpopular - it is hard to go into an election campaign proposing larger tax rises than either the current government or a significant body of economic opinion thinks is necessary.
The Tories are therefore caught in a position in which they have only bad options. They must either go for larger cuts or bigger tax rises than Labour or abandon their commitment to faster deficit reductions. Taking any of these routes is likely to lose them votes.
Brown repeatedly brushing aside thousands of deaths with ‘we’ve learned that lesson’
Shockingly blase
Interesting we have a little bit of the ‘problems made in America’ theme again.
Has the funny smile turned up yet, I usually take it be when he lies through a difficult question..
352. ‘The problem for Cameron and the Tories is that they need this fiscal epiphany to happen in the next eight weeks.’
Spot on. Close polling, the prospect of a Labour Govt and some market scrutiny, is what we need. We need tight polling right up to the point when the election is called and hopefully beyond.
However scary.
“1140 Mr Brown says the cabinet did not really focus on reconstruction until a few weeks before the invasion because there was still a belief that an eleventh hour diplomatic solution could be found. ”
!!!
Wow. Gordon Brown’s ability to bear a grudge is legendary, but even by his standards, his Chilcot testimony about Robin Cook was remarkably terse.
Students of Scottish Labour history will recall that Mr Brown and Mr Cook fell out in the early 1970s over, well, something. (No-one’s quite sure what; there are various accounts of it, and the only person who really knows isn’t saying.)
Anyway, that animosity persisted for decades, right into the Labour Cabinet.
And then Mr Cook died. Now, he is fondly remembered by many Labour folk (including many who were never that nice about him in life) as a man of vision and courage who quit the Cabinet rather than back the war in Iraq.
For those people, it has become a truism that Mr Cook saw the flaws in the pre-war intelligence on Iraq’s WMD. If he could do it, why couldn’t others?
Yet questioned about his fellow Scot’s apparent foresight, Mr Brown appeared keen to present a slightly different version of events.
“I do not recall a conversation with Robin about the intelligence,” he said.
If Mr Cook raised the intelligence issue in Cabinet, Mr Brown did not recall it.
Rather, Mr Cook’s main argument was that he wanted to give Saddam more time.
“I think we knew Robin had objections because he thought the sanctions and the non-military rout should be pursued more.”
Put to him that Mr Cook had indeed raised questions about the intelligence in his Commons resignation speech, Mr Brown again demurred. It was only later, after the war, that questions about the intelligence were raised, he said.
Decades have passed and Mr Cook has died. But it doesn’t look like Mr Brown is yet willing to give his former colleague too much credit.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100028559/gordon-brown-at-the-iraq-inquiry-no-credit-for-robin-cook/
F1:
I have to laugh, Renault this year are being sponsored by the makers of Lada cars. Awsome.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8549995.stm
362. £42 Bn in interest payments this year and every year thanks to Labour.
Repeat ad nauseam..
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100028559/gordon-brown-at-the-iraq-inquiry-no-credit-for-robin-cook/
358 The irony is that we will have to cut less than you because the markets trust us more. In the event of a win, post election, your Balls will be for the chop or there will be hell to pay.
Better hope that doesn’t reach the frightened electorate.
Caught in the spam trap
Wow. Gordon Brown’s ability to bear a grudge is legendary, but even by his standards, his Chilcot testimony about Robin Cook was remarkably terse.
http://tinyurl.com/y9a3urd
363
That is absolute ****.
It puts him out beyond cabinet. Further out than Cook, further out than Short.
323 - Andrew.
I think thats right, but what surprises me is how frozen the Tories have been in policy and adjusting it to the circumstances
They seem to have a bundle of policies which were framed before the recession which no longer suit, and another bundle which seem to change direction on a daily basis.
As for the debates, the increasing view that Cameron is a lightweight who is not good at detail will take more shifting now than it would have 4 or 5 months ago, and the Ashcroft story adds extra questionmarks against his judgement.
For the other Tories on here, here’s a handy viewing aid for you.
It should enhance your enjoyment of Chilcot.
http://www.skysports.com/fanzone/
364, ha, I read that (on Joe Saward’s blog, I think). Seems quite fitting.
355. I am tempted by the clicheed notion that it is actually preferable for Cameron to lose this election, very narrowly, and for Brown to soldier on for a year or two in charge of a minority Labour government.
That way Labour will reap everything they sowed. And the squeals of pain as Labour are forced to slash and burn the poisonous forest they planted will be some solace amidst the darkling gloom of austerity.
Alternatively, if the Tories somehow win they have to be ABSOLUTELY HONEST with the people on day one. Throw open the books, let everyone see the real state of affairs, have a wide and vivid national debate, then an emergency budget: that way they can make sure the British understand the damage was all done by Brown.
Will Our Glorious Leader ever answer a question directly?
paulwaugh
Most imp line yet in Brown’s testimony re Iraq: “I can’t take personal responsibility for everything that went wrong”. ie “It wasn’t me Guv’
glenoglaza
#iraq From 10th April til August, post-war cabinet cttee met: Brown didn’t attend - can’t vouch for its usefulness/efficiency!
369. Your verdict on Brown @ Chilcott tim ? Going well ?
358 nickc - No, I don’t think that is right. Labour’s support has grown precisely because people are beginning to think that all this Tory talk about the deficit and cuts is an exaggeration. Things don’t seem so bad at the moment. It’s a delusion, of course.
The huge risk for Labour is the shock which those people who are deluded in that way will get if Darling comes up with a vaguely honest budget. All the Tories would need to do in that case is point out the obvious truth that they were right all along, and also point out Labour’s record of gargantuan waste, which still continues (they STILL haven’t even gone for the pain-free savings such as cancelling ID cards). Labour suddenly claiming to have become the party of sound public finances is laughable; at the moment, they are getting an incredibly easy ride on the mendacious basis that sound public finances are not only not necessary, but actually harmful.
On the other hand, if Darling is tempted not to come up with an honest budget, the markets and the media will jump on it.
He’s got a tricky tightrope to walk.
358 - Great post and spot on. The budget will be a key Labour tool in sertting up the general election debate.
Unfortunately for Labour, the leaders debates will be a slow motion car crash for Gordon Brown. I imagine he will be unbearable to watch and listen to, and that Labour will lose a lot of votes as a result.
376: Still SO, theres only 3 weeks left to have that budget. Time’s running out. Can Darling hold back ‘The forces of hell’?
373 Just pause for a moment and imagine the reaction if it was Cameron coming out with this disingenous weazel cr*p.
‘He’s broken every human law, he breaks the law of gravity.
His powers of levitation would make a fakir stare,
And when you reach the scene of crime–Macavity’s not there!’
378 Good point, Sally. Can we look forward to the Guardian issuing pompous demands: ‘Five Questions Brown Must Answer’ about what he knew when.
358. Bollocks. If Darling is honest in his Budget the screaming horror of the public and the unions will drown out anything else, e.g. the Tory reaction; if he is dishonest in his Budget, the markets will destroy him and anything else will be a sideshow. e.g. the Tory reaction.
Your analysis is over sophisticated piffle.
Toilets calls it a draw - ergo a shocking result for Brown !
Kevin Maguire tweets;
“Brown’s playing for the Bore Draw at Chilcot. Still 0-0 after 90 minutes. Not sure I can stand extra time”
375 RN
well in the Midlands the cuts theme is starting to come to the foreground. Regional BBC has been running with a preparing for the cuts agenda all week.
The only problem is they haven’t yet decalred the true size of what councils are facing.
Hey guys, been out for the morning. Has Brown thrown a cup of water/coke can/pen/mobile phone at Roderick Lyne yet?
toilets twitter “…Brown’s playing for the Bore Draw at Chilcot. Still 0-0 after 90 minutes. Not sure I can stand extra time…”
If even he thinks Brown is poor, how is everybody else assessing it?
Can’t think why he had to corner Obama beach in a kitchen before he would listen to a word he has to say.
369. tim, I think you are right that the Conservatives are confused about how they are actually going to deal with the deficit and which policies they should junk and which they should keep. I also think they have been perturbed by the public taking fright at talk of cuts and have been trying to find the right language, so far uinsuccessfully.
It’s an unprecedented situation we are in and the Tories havent really succeeded to adapting to it. At least they have tried, however.
Of course, the real problem is that Labour have no idea how to deal with the deficit and are not even thinking about it in practical terms beyond headline numbers. This is politically convenient for them now but will be disatrous for them and the country if they win.
As for whether the public view Cameron as a lightweight, perhaps, but I think there is polling evidence that shows that similar, if not greater, numbers regard Brown in the same light.
paulwaugh
Oooh, Chilcot praises Brown. Says as former civ servant, the Treasury planning papers on Iraq were of “impressive” quality
Hah. I just see I have basically repeated Richard Nabavi’s point at 257.
Still, my post was shorter and had the work “bollocks” in it.
@378 - Sallyc.. I was half way though typing the same thing.
ROTFLMAO
Understatement of the century: “[because of the globol finacial crisis] its been difficult to meet the Golden Rule”
glenoglaza
#iraq contrast in style betwen Tony Blair & Gordon Brown at this Inquiry. One animated & engaged, the other, our current PM - well, er, not!
387 SeanT - You put it a lot more succinctly!
382 Toilets would call it a win for Brown if was at all possible.
The party line = so boring, couldn’t be bothered, move along.
381 - The Tories are not proposing huge cuts this year, are they? So why would Labour?
358 - nickc - One of the most intelligent posts on here I’ve read recently.
The Tory position seems to have moved around between “much faster than Darling” “slightly faster” “much deeper than Darling” “slightly deeper”, sometimes all on the same day and, as you rightly poit out, without knowing what Darling is going to do.
I do agree with Richard Nabavi that Darling has a tightrope to walk, but I think he slightly underestimates how many Labour supporters and leaners are reconciled to a tough budget, but want to see the burden shared fairly, which they do not trust the Tories to do.
If, two weeks after the budget, the recent direction in the polls on economic trust issues is still going in Labours favour, the Tories should be seriously worried.
375 There is no such thing as a pain-free saving - all savings will create pain for someone. Cutting ID cards will mean the loss of IT contratcs, Home Office jobs etc etc and all those affected have votes, as do their partners & families.
re 401. Well being on top on the economy didn’t help John Major in 1997.
385 - Not a good week to use the Macavity meme Sal.
Maybe we can have a drag hunt and look for Dave.
Anyone remember that old Shaggy song “it wasnt me” ??
Sums up Brown
Did you sell our gold at the wrong time
“it wasnt me”
Did you brief and scheme against Blair?
“it wasnt me”
Did you push anyone?
“it wasnt me”
Did you underfund our troops?
“it wasnt me”
Did you borrow to much in the good times?
“it wasnt me”
Gordon, what a man of principle, integrity and courage. What leadership skills he possesses.
Trully we are blessed to be led by this giant amongst men.
Songs will be sung about his deeds (well, other than Gordon is a moron)
402 nickc
neither is there such a thing as pain-free spending - it all has to come from someone’s pocket and as we have seen it is increasingly our children who are going to have to pay for this mess. If our generation has cocked it up the least we could do is clear up our own mess.
392 - You may have mnissed this:
“We’ve got to find £82 billion of deficit reduction . . . That means stopping doing some things, it means pushing some things to the side and it means a revolution in Whitehall. What I’m doing now with the Cabinet is asking them to sign their departments up for their share of those spending cuts.”
Yesterday the growth figures were revised upwards. The Treasury believes some of the deficit will be eliminated by growth, and a proportion by tax rises, but the Chief Secretary says that the Government must also find £20 billion of savings a year by 2012-13.
He has told his Cabinet colleagues to come up with departmental cuts totalling £11 billion — on top of savings from public sector pay and pensions and other efficiencies that have already been announced. The details will, he tells us, be set out in the Budget next month.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7043198.ece
403 Maybe it did Mike. The 1997 result could have been worse than it was. The polls did close towards election day.
Maybe we can have a drag hunt and look for Dave.
by tim March 5th, 2010 at 12:08
But tim, today is Gordons day in the sun. It is his chance to show his humerous, thoughtful, charismatic side that the public rarely get the chance to see.
How’s that working out for him?
Cameron to come out and say anything would distract from Gordons magnificent display at Chilcott, you wouldn’t really want that would you?
403 - True, but he was facing Blair whose ratings were consistently high.
Labour are facing Cameron, whose net ratings have declined at the same rate as Kinnocks in the run up to 1992.
403 - But it did in 1992.
404. He’s on the phone to the emergency services - he’s seen a car crash happening live on the news channels.
He looks uncomfortable to me.
402 nickc - Ah yes, the classic Labour mindset: spending by definition is a good thing, irrespective of whether it brings any benefit. But somehow I don’t think the average voter will be too fussed about over-paid (and often foreign-owned) IT companies not being able to cream billions of pounds off the taxpayer.
401 tim - We shall see, but I don’t think Labour supporters/leaners are reconciled to a tough budget; certainly not on the scale required. All I see on the left is ‘we know times are tough, but we must protect XXX’, where XXX is whatever special interest they are championing today. Nickc’s idea that even cutting ID cards is not pain-free is perhaps the most extreme example of that I’ve ever seen.
359. ‘we’ve learned that lesson’
Oh thank heavens for that, all those deaths don’t matter then (!)
Scary - this is the standard bureaucratic response to every disastrous f*ck up the government makes ‘things have improved since we: killed thousands in filthy hospitals/allowed vulnerable children to die due being obsessed about race/wasted millions of taxpayers money on insane projects/etc.’
It really shows Brown up as the narrow-minded self-interested apparatchik he is.
407 SO
problem is that’s what he should have been doing last year.
Noticeable change in Brown’s manner & widening of vocabulary when questionning turned to budgeting and figures. He feels on home soil and can spout tractor stats and make assertions about what he did with much less hesitation.
There was quite a revealing comment earlier about his surprise at a PM having immediate contact with foreign leaders (except of course when he tried to call Obama to congratulate him on his getting the nomination) - Gordon seemed quite unprepared for what a PM actually did, maybe after two years on the job training he’s actualy learning now how to do the job.
Oh dear.
Looks like Chilcot is another fail for the Tory pom pom cheerleaders on PB.
What straws do they clutch at now?
407
You may have missed this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100004040/dont-be-fooled-gdp-was-actually-revised-down/
Is the bunker line today really that Cameron isn’t all over the media while Brown is in front of Chilcott?
I’m looking forward to the campaign; on the day Brown punches a nurse and kicks a child across the room, Tim will be on here insisting that Cameron is running scared because he only gave 11 interviews and visited 4 counties that day.
403 - PS Mike, did you see Andy Morris of ARPO emphasising the steep fall in Brown and Darlings negative ratings in their most recent poll review?
406. “neither is there such a thing as pain-free spending - it all has to come from someone’s pocket and as we have seen it is increasingly our children who are going to have to pay for this mess. If our generation has cocked it up the least we could do is clear up our own mess.”
This can not be stressed enough. The opportunity cost of our f*cking enormous deficit, f*cking enormous debt and f*cking enormous interest payments will be a blight on millions of lives for decades to come. This is not a pain free recession, the pain will be felt in the 2010s, 20s, 30s and 40s.
407: Looks like smoke screen and chaff and small change to me. £20bn? When we’re borrowing £200bn per year…
Oh the rest will be growth and tax rises? Well Darlings growth figures are fantasy in the first place, and which tax rises are we really talking about here? The 50% tax rate is only a few billion at most, and may result in more pain than it gets.
401 Thanks. IMHO the Tories are now in a position very similar to that of Labour in 1992. Then Labour appeared to be saying “Vote Labour and we guarantee your taxes will be higher than they would be under the Tories.”
Now the Tories are saying “Vote Tory and we guarantee that we will be a bigger threat to your public sector job (or your employer’s public sector contract) and your public services than Labour.” And not only that - “Vote Tory and one of our highest priorities for tax cuts is people with estates valued at more then £350,000….”
tim,
Dave would have been at PMQs on Wednesday if Brown hadn’t done a runner. Again.
If it was in your interests to get him out and he was hiding, why did you miss the chance.
Another pointless line from the bunker.
419 - No I saw it. Thakfully the government has been spending during this recession. If it had not been, can you imagine what kind of depression we would be in the midst of now?
BenM,
would you care to point out three posts on here where anybody says that barring a massive cock up from Brown that this would have any effect whatsoever.
The sad thing for Brown is that he is seen as a non entity, only 300 odd people even asked for tickets to get in and see him. He is insignificant in the public eye and that is what will kill him in the end.
416 - I disagree. It would have been disastrous to have made major spending cuts at the height of the deepest recession this country has seen for over 70 years.
407. As I said, this is headline figures not actual cuts. We shall see if Labour come up with real cut proposals and spell out what these mean for people.
It is good that Labour are starting to think about it, perhaps motivated by the fear that they might actually still be in government to worry about it.
426: How much better off would we have been if Brown had fixed the roof whilst the sun was shining?
Saw the beginning and the end of Brown’s contribution. What I saw seemed sound to me.
I disagree that this was ever supposed to be a shop front for Brown. Just something he had to get through without political damage.
PS the idea that people are calling him McCavity today is surely ironic. He didn’t have to do this.
426
What a fantastic fallacy.
Look at the picture at top of link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7373974/Gordon-Brown-at-the-Iraq-Inquiry-live.html
Seems people think Gordo less than honest
Say it aint so!!!
“increasingly our children who are going to have to pay for this mess… this is not a pain free recession, the pain will be felt in the 2010s, 20s, 30s and 40s.”
Just like our US war debt then?
Don’t seem to remember that inhibiting my upbringing too much. In fact I’m rather glad we went all out financially to ensure freedom and prosperity.
Similar holds today. Our children won’t thank us for allowing society to fracture for the sake of a few billion quid run up in the wake of the total implosion of free market economics imposed on us by conservative governments.
423 - So is Cameron wrong to say that there will be relatively few cuts in spending in 2010 if the Tories win the election?
“I do agree with Richard Nabavi that Darling has a tightrope to walk, but I think he slightly underestimates how many Labour supporters and leaners are reconciled to a tough budget, but want to see the burden shared fairly, which they do not trust the Tories to do.”
Arrant nonsense from tim.
Apart from the most incredibly well-informed and well-educated, Labour supporters and leaners have absolutely no idea what is about to hit us - what will be necessary in terms of cuts. Check out Johann Hari’s column linked above, where he fails to grasp the concept of deficit.
He’s a leading lefty columnist FFS, and he has no idea what he’s talking about.
Whoever wins the election, we are facing cuts of unprecedented severity - worse than Thatcher. These cuts will be unavoidable - enforced by the market - and exceedingly painful.
The idea that Labour voters and floaters are, like, totally cool and au fait with this, but they are merely worried about the Tories getting the necessary spending cuts “wrong” is whimsical to the point of surrealism.
1/10 for tim. Try again.
426. One where we had lower debt and were paying lower interest payments on that debt. Also business confidence would be higher as we would be less deep in le merde.
We might have had a lower “headline” GDP figure in the short term but as discussed above its a pretty overrated metric.
However the aim of the Vat slashing madness policy was to keep Brown in power not benefit the Uk - so yet to be proven how sucsessful it all was.
431 Jonathan I disagree that this was ever supposed to be a shop front for Brown. Just something he had to get through without political damage.
That is certainly correct; I don’t see Chilcot affecting Brown’s and Labour’s position much either way. But it does serve as a reminder of how he might come across in the debates.
426 SO
rather a shame their policies got us into such a steep depression in the first place isn’t it ?
435 Southam - Of course he’s right. It’s too late to do much in 2010/2011.
From the Telegraph
“To paraphrase Mr Brown’s evidence so far: “Going to war was the right thing to do. I was as involved as I needed to be. And the decisions I made were the right ones.”"
LOOOL on Sky they just showed that “Gordon Brown stare” as he become annoyed by the questioning
What a lovely man
SallyC, why do you answer Tim.
It just increases the spam that is ruining this site.
BenM, excellent, you compare the debt incurred to defeat a facist dictator in a global conflict with the debt run up by Brown.
That truly puts into perspective how much debt this clown has run up.
That post is worth cutting and keeping.
On Sky now - “lets blame France”
430 - This I agree with to an extent. In my view it should be what the Tories should come back to time and again. They don’t seem to be doing it for some reason.
406, 422 But the point is that people do not currently care very much about what might (or might not) happen in 2030 or 2040. A large percentage of voters won’t be here in 2030 or 2040 - they are more concerned about what happens in 2011 or 2012. And all these arguments about the buredn of future interst payments are not new - Labour made them quite strongly in 1997. TBH I doubt they register with most voters - people are more worried about the here and now.
434. Except there wasn’t a war. And when Brown took over the UK’s free market economy in 1997 we had relatively low debt, a small deficit, and sound finances.
Gordonomics was the War. He destroyed us. He was the Luftwaffe and now we have all been sent to Coventry.
435: Until theres hard numbers on both sides of the table, then it’s difficult to say exactly. It’s a failure of all the major political partys to not say what is going to happen and what that means for public services.
But Labouris still the government. They are the ones at the treasury and with the access to the data. Until the bugdet then the tories arn’t going to go on a crap shoot in the dark without the facts from that.
434 BenM
Fought a world war in the last 13 years have we? Must have missed it.
But to put your daft statement in context we have spent more in the last 5 years than it cost to fund WW2.
At the end of WW2 we had our freedom - today we have nothing to show for all the debt.
444 - followed up swiftly by “lets blame the army”
Wonderful stuff by Labour
436 - SeanT.
Most trade Unions have behaved,as has most management in this recession with far more flexibility and responsibility than in the previous two.
I think people are prepared for pain but want it shared fairly, where they distrust the Tories are when Osborne says “We’re all in this together” then sticks to his pledge to give his family a huge tax cut.
Brown did have to do it.
Both the Chilcot itself and his appearance were classic examples of Brown tactically boxing himself into a corner.
439 - I agree absolutely that Labour should have tackled the unfettered markets consensus that developed in the 80s and 90s. Their failure to do so was a catastrophic error.
442. Out of pity.
But fair enough Betsy.
444- alwyas a good idea, but what for this time?
442- I agree, there are some posters who actually engage in a debate (SO and Richard Nabavi for instance) and then there are the Tims of all sides who repeat party attacks ad nauseum.
[346] - People on here focus a lot on expectations of debate performance. But an undecided voter who doesn’t follow politics closely isn’t going to have any expectations.
The media, however, will be doing their utmost to create expectations, by previewing the debates endlessly beforehand. They will also be using their own expectations to form the media narrative of who did well, and who did badly, etc.
Oh, and I’d expect that the 10% who do know who George Osborne is will be disproportionately amongst those who will watch the damn things.
Colonel on the Daily Politics points out that the issue of funding is far more to do with the reconstruction than the invasion.
Will the Chilcot panel pick this up? I don’t have much faith in them…
446: Exactly..the electorate is like a overweight person gorging themselves, if the right thing to do,
a) Tell them to shape up and get fit
b) Allow them to continue until they have a heart attack then panic?
The electorate might not want A, but its the right thing to do.
438 We’ll just have to see how he performs in the debates. Clearly it’s a roll of the dice for all leaders. Brown perhaps more so than most given he is not a media natural. However, I think he will be more comfortable on the more overtly political ground in the debates.
His challenge will be to score fresh political points whilst at the same time coming across as less the most obviously prime ministerial. The Tories problem in the debates is that most of their political points have already been scored. And are thus old news. Same old, same old. In part it’s what is causing them problems now. Labour appear fresher.
451 - When is Gordo giving up his Sky sports subscription then?
Why also have Labour ministers had tax advice paid for by the public?
You lot dont do integrity do you?
446. Very true, and more fool them.
442 - Betsy - Sally knows nothing about betting and little about politics.
Answering me gives her a reason to contribute.
The interesting thing about Chilcot today is that as far as I can tell, the public isn’t in election mode yet - they’re not really reacting to the mounds of publicity that the parties are putting out, hence Bullygate and Nondomgate having minimal effect. Brown’s appearance today and the Budget are the only things on the horizon that the non-political geeks will notice - until Brown actually gets his arse down the Mall to request dissolution.
First few texts read out on R5 - not impressed with Gordon avoiding the questions.
According to Pienaar, the ‘meat’ will discussed this PM.
Oh and John Venables has been outed in prison and now in isolation.
453, hahahaha.
No. The failure was Brown racking up enormous public debt whilst creating a rubbish regulatory system. Australia, Sweden and Canada didn’t get walloped nearly so much as we did, because none of them were afflicted with Brown.
447 - You forgot to mention the bit about the dysfunctional infrastructure the Tories left us with in 1997. A G7 economy which forced people to wait months or even years to have operations, for example.
Boulton lets slip that people in audience were laughing at Brown’s answers
459. In what way fresher Jonathan? I think it might be hard to push Gordon Brown as “fresh”: he and labour have been around for a long time.
465 - I think you may have missed the bit about the UK economy being completely different to the economies of Canada, Sweden and Australia.
467. Yet billions later our cancer treatment is still significantly worse than Libyas.
447 /449.
A world war is one example of the legitimate escalation of national debt.
Clearing up the unbelievable financial mess left by free market, Thatcherite, conservative economics (and their apologists like you) is another.
251. “It is. will you delicately explain that to him and he might change his username. Tell him about Cap’n Pugwash….”
And while you’re at it explain to him that the Captain Pugwash story is an urban legend with no basis in fact and Oliver Postgate has successfully sued for libel people who have repeated it.
464 / 467 - Anyone really think Gordo will do well in the debates?
Wonder also what the papers will say of Labour ~(via McGabble) saying that the spending / equipment issue is all the army’s fault.
Labour “it was not us”
459 - Brown cannot be anything other than a disaster in the debates.
469. SO: I think you may have missed the bit about the UK economy being completely different to the economies of Canada, Sweden and Australia.
Yes, theirs haven’t been screwed into the ground by Brown’s incompetence.
453 SO
I think you’ll find it’s worse than you stated - Labour abdicated any control over markets in a desperate effort to keep their rich hangers-on happy.
It explains why income inequalities have continued to go up under Labour rather than diminish.
Apparently Populus and YouGov are now doing CCHQ private polling:
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/05/tories-hire-yougov-to-do-new-private-polling/
458 Running a campaign based on telling the electorate that its standard of living is too high and the main priority is to get it down as quickly as possible would be an interesting experiment but not one I would recommend to a party that wanted to win an election!
469, true, we had a moronic regulatory system and a tax and spend cretin who belongs in the 1970s in charge.
470 - Really.
471. BenM, given that Labour made no attempt to reverse the “free market, Thatcherite, conservative economics”, we must assume they thought it was a good idea. Why should we trust them to change it and to what do you wish to see it changed?
480. SO.
By a factor of at least 2, apparently.
BenM, give up, you have made a tit of yourself. Gordon spent more than was required to win a global war. That is what you said and it is true. The difference is, the war achieved something, Gordon didn’t. Sad isn’t it?
At 10 o’clock I burned my toast because I was distracted by Gordon Brown waffling. I blame the Labour government. I blame the youth of today. I blame the old people. I blame the farmers. I blame the EU. I blame the international imperialist bourgeoisie. It’s political correctness gone mad.
446. A simple and direct lie. People still wait years for vital operations now. My mother, for instance.
That is the bitter truth underlying this. If we could now point to a brilliant new health service or a world class education system or some superbly funded armed forces at least we would be able to say, OK, the Gordon spending Spree was a terrible fiscal mistake, but look at what we have bought!
But we didn’t spend wisely. The NHS creaks along. Our solders die for lack of equipment. Our children plummet down the OECD rankings.
Tragic.
459- I agree it is a massive risk for all of them, but at one point Brown had nothing to lose. He was doomed anyway his ratings were already disasterous, he couldn’t actually come out of it any worse. At the same time it looked like Cameron couldn’t gain from it as he was already expected to win, but he could lose an awful lot.
That situation has changed now, a bad performance by Brown can actually harm Labour now that they have recovered their position somewhat, while Cameron needs a strong performance to revitalise the Tory campaign. It may now be a risk worth taking for the Conservatives, and Brown now has something at stake.
451 tim…what thoughts do you have on the subsidies that are paid to the farming community?
475 - No theirs are very different to ours. The banking sector in each, for example, is much smaller; while mining and the extraction of other natural resources is much more significant.
However, if you are asking me whether successive Tory and Labour gfovernments have failed to tackle the imbalances in our economy I would say yes without hesitation.
Clegg on Sky news making sure Brown tied to all the decisions and questioning Brown’s answers re equipment.
471 BenM
there’s the minor point that Labour have been the government since 1997. Furthermore a governemnt without an effective opposition.
You had the majority and the power to reverse any of the Thatcher reforms you didn’t agree with.
You simply took the money and encouraged the banks to lend to all and sundry. Brown even paid tribue to this approach at his Mansion house Speech and knighted Sir Fred.
The thing about government is the buck stops with you. You just can’t however admit how hopeless you are.
453 Southam unfettered markets consensus
Hmm, let’s see:
Ofcom, Ofwat, Ofgas, Oftel, Ofgem, Office of Fair Trading, Competition Commission, FSA, BOE, Trading Standards Officers, Employment Tribunals, Equality Commission, Pensions Regulator, COSHH, Takeover Panel, Health and Safety Executive…
You could extend the list for many pages. One wonders what Southam’s ideal of a fettered market would look like.
472. Aw come on, repeating urban legends is Roger’s whole raison d’etre
36. Stuart D.
If Dave is FM, does that mean that Alex is “Council Leader Salmond”?
Back again for a minute and just wanted to pass on a tidbit I’ve just picked up. Apparenly a little bird has told me that the local benefits office is asking all unemployed claimants whether they are caring for someone at home and should be claiming for it. The same little bird says its the first time they can recall this happening.
Now isn’t it convenient that just at a time when the DWP Minister has suggested that the marginally positive signs that the unemployment figures have been showing may not last, there seems to be an initiative started which whilst not saving any money would relieve some of the pressure on the monthly unemployment figures without any real change in the employment market?
486 We’ll all be watching from behind the sofa. It could drive you mad.
Perhaps a healthy pb distraction would be to set up some interesting bets around the events.
e.g.
Who will say “deficit” most?
Will anyone explain who that third bloke is?
New thread up.
473. To be fair, a lot of the problem was the MoD screwing things up. The Treasury tried to impose financial discipline on the MoD as it had ordered beyond its budget for years.
One can, to an extent, understand Brown scepticism about more money for the MoD, given how badly they spent it, but he clearly regarded defence as a low priority, even during a period when they werefighting two wars, and was unwilling to loosen the purse strings at the expense of other projects more to his liking.
Clegg brings up body armour and helicopters.
Well done that man
489 - Brown tied himself to all the big decisions.
I wish Clegg would crowbar “our brave soldiers” into every sentence, we all know why he does it.
499 - wouldn’t
New Thread
clegg good valid points sky news interview kate burley
474. There is still the question of whether he will be a catastrophically apocalyptic disaster in the debates, or merely a mild disaster.
434. “Similar holds today. Our children won’t thank us for allowing society to fracture for the sake of a few billion quid run up in the wake of the total implosion of free market economics imposed on us by conservative governments.”
The trick is not to get in a precarious position in the first place. i.e. Don’t screw up financial regulation and consistently run a deficit.
I can’t wait for the debates to start…it is gonna be a Brown bloodbath…have you noticed how when he gets uppity he leans back in his chair….looking for summut to throw perhaps?
Without wishing to get into a lengthy debate about economics, I think we can perhaps all agree that after 2001 or so, there was no good reason why Brown couldn’t have run a buget surplus, up till the onset of the recession, and our position would be better now, had he done so.
Brown bad. Brown nasty. Brown liar. Brown not nice. Brown porkies. Brown fibbing. Brown naughty. Brown Labour. Brown evasive. Brown evil. Brown deceitful. Brown brown. Brown purple….(continue slight variation until enter deep transcendental vegetative trance)
- 642 Tory posters so far
Much has been said about Brown’s stealth taxes whilst Chancellor but looking back now was his biggest blunder the decision to scrap corporation tax for small companies making profits of £10K back in the 1990’s. As an accountant at the time we advised all our husband and wife partnerships to incorporate into Limited Companies. A partnership with a profit of £22,000 would incorporate and once hubby and Mrs had paid themselves £6,000 salaries (covered by tax free allowance)the company had no tax to pay either. The Treasury must have lost BILLIONS…and this went on for 3 or 4 years !!
May heve been mentioned earlier but can’t read 500 posts.
Lab 37, Con 29, PC 14, LD12, Others7.
Not sure of the projections. The regional samples are all over the place
449, yes blame the Military.
It is the Generals who are to blame 100% for Iraq. In a democracy it is Generals who make military policy and that includes judging the right composition of the armed forces. That’s their job, what they’re paid for.
It is because the top of the armed forces is packed with incompetent, small-minded pompous toads (and that there are far too many of them) that our troops are being killed. How many billions have been wasted on stupid projects like new types of super-modern fighters (useless in Iraq and Afghanistan), Trident and an aircraft carrier we are never going to need?
The Afghanistan like the Iraq disasters are caused by a complete lack of strategy and helicopters do not make an iota of difference if the strategy is a failure.
They are allowed to get away with it and it makes me sick. The media doesn’t play it’s role so the Tory bigotry that Labour is somehow anti-soldier is allowed to spread into the population. The Tories are scoring political points while rank-and-file soldiers’ lives are wasted.
507.And 1 poster who can’t say anything good about Brown, so instead chooses to criticise other contributions, thanks for your input though.
Just watched last nights QT, possibly worst of the series. Audience was slightly to the left of the Green Party. Boris got no traction whatsoever.
Honestly Tories seem to think generals are only for grandstanding and impressing Tory pensioners and pretending to be patriotic.
511,
“Just watched last nights QT, possibly worst of the series. Audience was slightly to the left of the Green Party. Boris got no traction whatsoever.”
Ah, that other Tory tactic of ‘blame the audience’. Do you actually know how Question Time audiences are selected?
How many senior officers, men who have in the past risked their lives for our country do you know? How many of those that you know are “incompetent, small-minded pompous toads”
What is your evidence base?
As for billions wasted on super modern fighters….I believe they were commissioned at the height of the cold war. The threat was of a Soviet attack in NW Europe, did your foresight enable you to predict the demise of the Soviet Union, the rise of radical Islam & the need for UK forces to be sent to the Middle East?
Afghanistan and Iraq were caused by a complete lack of strategy? The Prime Minister & the relevant committee decide aims, provide funds etc. We don’t live in a dictatorship, if the civilian elected government wanted to change policy/strategy they could so order.
Based on your final few lines, you are about as unlikely a swing voter as I have ever met.
“119.105 Not entirely surprising. The most liberal of all Democrat senators got elected as POTUS and has been trying (but failing) to push the leftiest agenda of any president in recent times. ”
Pure lies, no more.
Given that Drudge is now little different than The Onion it’s obvious whose lies you are believing.