No change in the daily poll Tory lead
March 4th, 2010
CON 38% (38)
LAB 32% (32)
LD 17%(19)
So what IS going to move the numbers?
The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable - unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft - that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers.
The Tories would feel much more comfortable if they were back in the 40s while the Labour recovery appears to have run out of steam a bit. With the Lib Dems down two then there all three of the main parties must feel a bit uncomfortable.
The swing here is 4.5% which compares with the 6.5% in the earlier YouGov marginals poll.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First
YouGov back to the snoozefest
Lib Dem surge over then?
Very dull again.
Yawn.
Yawn
The Brown vs Cameron contest isn’t currently being played on a level playing field at present and won’t be until Brown call a general election. At the moment Cameron only get media attention when he makes a policy announcement which is immediately followed by hostile attacks from Labour, LibDem politicians and the anti-Tory press. Whereas Brown get to play UK Premier and World Stateman to his hearts content and with virually no comeback but loads of sympathetic TV and Radio airtime and newspaper column inches.
Boring poll is boring.
One thing that remains is its consistency. Labour firmly in the 30s with the Tories firmly under the 40s. Lib Dems all over the place.
fpt I do like the new Labour student posters.
BenM is all believe absolutely anything Gordon tells him no matter how irrational or insane.
and
Briband is all “I am way too cool for school and tories”
I have this picture of them following timmy around at forces from hell academy.
by voreas March 4th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
Well YouGov has fallen in love with the 6-7% band…
Smeary Gobble, links, spins and lies.
Sorry….
Zzzzzzzzz……
All that nastiness from Labour produces zero effect. As posted on p thread…… it will harden the Conservative vote.
Awesome!
YouBore…
but but but but what about ashcroft!! I can almost here gabble and tim crying. Just like the bullying story, no outside interest. It is also why the tories have been silent on the issue.
God this tracker is boring, they should look at the US trackers, they really do create trends not churn out the same old, same old…
Ashcroft=no traction.
Noticed on the BBC website and others where it is shown as to what are the most popular stories the Ashcroft story isn’t being mentioned (not in the BBC top 10 most read). It’s almost as if the Westminster village is besotted with it and others are ho hum. Strange when you see how prominently it is displayed in most news outlets. I thought it might make an impact this week and nothing. Strange (except I must admit I’m totally bored by it - and I can’t see anything much in it that’s worth getting that het up about).
I wonder if the Sun feel that they’ve wasted their money?
22nd
bribrad you obviously missed this at the end of the last thread, care to answer it now?
bribrad
bribrad, Gordon had to repay 12,000 from his second home allowances. Can you tell were his first home is? If he is claiming second home allowance he must by definition have a first one, were is it?
by don(the other one) March 4th, 2010 at 9:44 pm
What did Clegg do in the last 24 hrs that made his 3 point jump disappear – did I miss something?
1 – Max, any chance you would consider modifying you handle so we can differentiate between the two.
How does ‘Mad Max II’ sound ?
yes we’ve won!
everyone knows labour is overstated in the polls!
we’re 12% clear cheerio labour!!!
Mandlesohn’s magic achieves expected results. We now await Master Dickson’s critical analysis of the Scottish sub-sample.
[If I had nae cut my finger-nails I'd be looking to file 'em by now.
]
Can’t be the end of the Cashcroftsagagate. Tim will lose the opportunity to throw in his ‘Willie’ jokes every few posts.
Well, I am not sure how accurate my clock is, but I reckon that the first 6 minutes of the BBC 10 o’clock News has been devoted to Lord Ashcroft.
I wonder what my dear old (a-political) mum is going to make of it all?
What I still cannot understand ( if these polls are anywhere near accurate ) is the odds being offered by all major bookies imply a Tory win.
***Bizarre conspiracy theory
The Tories are deliberately running a low-key campign, letting the lead drop to low single digits to encourage turnout and allow for a ‘fightback’ narrative. Once Labour call the election or hold a budget they will go all guns blazing.
How much would the polls change if Gordon punched a pensioner during the campaign?
ARS poll
Few Britons believe the economic recession is actually over
http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/03/few-britons-believe-the-economic-recession-is-actually-over/
Who expected big daily movements in polls?
Anyone who did was mad.
Although Chilcot tomorrow and Cameron hiding from the media to continue?
FPT 616 UKPaul.
You’re probably right, but there is a genuinely interesting point there. Somehow, the Tories have become disassociated from their tub-thumping press. Back in 1979, I doubt there would have been any questions at all about who the Telegraph or the Mail would support.
Given the relative emollience of Dave’s public persona and the fact he is a blue blooded Tory, I would have expected him to have done better.
I know one or two right wing journalists, who don’t like the old school cliqueness of the Notting Hill set. Perhaps that’s it.
Interesting though, when you think about it.
Must admit that I don’t think the Ashcroft story is shifting votes. It’s firing up non-Tory people (I’ve raised £2500 in donations in the last two weeks by appealing to my email list for support to ‘level the playing field’, including one of £500 from a lady who I wasn’t aware even supported me) but I don’t think anyone thinking of voting Tory cares very much.
Apart from that, nothing much has been happening so it’s not strange that the polls are stationary. Although we all talk glibly about MOE, there’s nothing especially odd about the lead being stable +/-1 while the electorate awaits further developments.
The two Lib/Dems voters were down the pub.
I still think it will finsh 40 30 20
Did anybody see the news at 10 on bbc? Notice how careful the reporter was tonight with regards to non-dom status, stressing it is not illegal and that lord ashcroft has not done anything wrong or illegal but keep the tories in the dark? Something tells me ashcroft’s lawyers have been it touch
I wonder if huhne and john mann will be so upfront tomorrow on this issue to…
***Oh, and the pollsters are playing along. Think - what’s the lowest lead that looks precarious, but also like you could win? 6%
All YouGov leads have been in the 5-7% range, except for the 2%, which conveniently fell just before Cameron’s speech, so he could have a mini speech bounce.
I wonder if Chilcot tommorow will make a difference. I guess it will depend if the lib dems choose to exploit it or not. They do not usually miss an opportunity to remind the voters about the war. I would imagine Browns’ greatest weakness will be answeing the questions on whether the troops were properly equiped or not.
27 Because they have read pb understand that labour is normally overstated and that yougov have gone into overstate overdrive and created their own weightings based on that which = 40/30/20 or thereabouts.
Another Labour PPB at the top of the 10 O’Clock News.
BBC leftists unite in common purpose with their Labour soul mates. They’ve had their differences over Iraq but, hey, they were all in the Oxford Labour Club together.
Oh well, i was only 2 points out on the LibDem share.
The other 2 , bang on.
Mind you i am beginning to think that the LibDem share is going to determine the outcome of this election.
It seems they are going to be pivotal eben before the election, let alone after it.
Hung parliament=nailed on.
More findings from ARS
re 28. I think that that is spot-on.
Channel 5 news [I know, contradiction in terms] is going on about the ‘refusal of the Govt’ to inform the public about Venables re arrest.
I suspect people are more curious about that.
33 Cunning as a fox. Ashcroft is definitely a good fund raising story.
Nick, a serious question, you must realise it’s highly probable you will lose, although I dont get that perception from your posts here.
Surely you must agree its more likely than not the Tories will take Broxtowe? Or is it bad stratedgy to admit it?
I dont believe the YouGov polls.
However, I do believe Yougov needs attention grabbing headlines. A flat ARS type poll with consistent levels wont make any headlines.
it benefits Yougov to have dynamic polls.
Until Yougov publish their weighting technique, I have the suspicion the variations are manufactured.
“…..I’ve raised £2500 in donations in the last two weeks by appealing to my email list for support to ‘level the playing field’, including one of £500 from a lady who I wasn’t aware even supported me)….” Nick, was she aware of your 10k comms allowance and the unionisation modernisation fund that the taxpayer pays to the unions, which coincidentally matches what the unions pay to Labour?
Mike S
Do you really think the Conservative leadership is that good???
Well, I am not sure how accurate my clock is, but I reckon that the first 6 minutes of the BBC 10 o’clock News has been devoted to Lord Ashcroft.
I wonder what my dear old (a-political) mum is going to make of it all?
by Augustus Carp March 4th, 2010 at 10:06 pm
10 11 pm
Not on ITV yet?
27
Roger, My only thought on that is that like many of us on here they must be accepting the idea that UNS is not going to work the way some people expect and hope. It looks as if the bookies agree with the idea that the marginals are going to fall heavily in favour of the Tories.
It will be interesting to see this evening’s silent Labour/loyal Labour/disloyal Labour/cut the Tory lead adjustments when the numbers are released. Will it be another 14 point lead reduced to 6 points? Peter Kellner really should give Mike a written explanation of YouGov’s sudden change on weighting policy.
A tracker poll every day seems a big waste of money. How much do they cost?
32 - There is the crazy/naive faux-libertarian right, ally that with the hard right (who, like the poor, are always with us) and Cameron has to disappoint quite a few supposed supporters.
Frankly, I prefer his honesty in not playing up to them the way that people like Howard did.
What is notable is that this week will be the first of the year where the Conservative lead hasn’t shown a net drop. It appears to me that the Tories have stopped the rot this week.
ARS tables
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010.03.04_Eco_BRI.pdf
41 - Brown and Darling up 4% and 5% in a month.
Default to Darling has begun.
42 Mike,
That’s a bit odd, since it was only last Sunday that Dave had his big fightback speech that was supposed to swing the polls. That was not low key. Quite a few Tory announcements this week.
Your theory does not fit the facts.
Also, i am starting to think that the Sun had an ulterior motive in commissioning a daily poll.
It helps to set to a narrative in concrete. If people see a poll lead everyday of 6% or thereabouts, it can change the mood of the protaganists, and make both sides (esp Labour) resigned to defeat.
But we’ll see.
Ha, ha. Mandy on the News looked like he was stamping his foot! Contrast with Fox’s smooth retort - all calmness and doctorly reassurance - delivered with his smoldering Scots accent!
TV full of Mandy, for Tories is handy!
Nick Palmer,
Out of curiosity (and not spite) are these donations declared and registered against tax-deductions? Would you be willing to publish them to us, or do we have to FOI these donations (lest David Mills ‘books’ them)…?
[PS. If this post is too-risky, remove it. We all know how Italian justice works and I don't fancy a horse-head on my pillows.
]
Must admit that I don’t think the Ashcroft story is shifting votes. It’s firing up non-Tory people (I’ve raised £2500 in donations in the last two weeks by appealing to my email list for support to ‘level the playing field’, including one of £500 from a lady who I wasn’t aware even supported me) but I don’t think anyone thinking of voting Tory cares very much.
Apart from that, nothing much has been happening so it’s not strange that the polls are stationary. Although we all talk glibly about MOE, there’s nothing especially odd about the lead being stable +/-1 while the electorate awaits further developments.
by Nick Palmer MP March 4th, 2010 at 10:07 pm
Did Tim send you any money?
42 - They have been in touch with those who helped Obama and noticeable there was the coast followed by the burst (a few times in fact).
*betting opportunity*
Norwich South - a four way marginal.
Ladbrokes offer 2.75 on Labour and 3.25 on LDs
Bet365 offer 6.5 on Conservatives
Victor Chandler offer 7 on Greens
Go to oddschecker.com to confirm
If you get the proportions right there’s an arbitrage here, betting on each of the parties.
I don’t think the Greens stand a chance, so i have bet on Lab, LD and Tories. So long as the Greens don’t win I will make a 22% profit.
Get in while the going is good!
53 I agree, Dave is better than the crazy/naive faux-libertarian right. (Nicely put BTW).
28, 42 Absolutely
Additionally, why kick Brown in the nuts today when Chilcott will take his box away tomorrow?
A weak, embittered, dissembling, guilt-ridden, expenses-soaked, hardware-choking PM laid bare by Chilcott ripe for a pounding.
Oh, and then we can take out Darling with the Badger cull after he gives us his finger in the air figures for the Budget.
truly appalling reporting by BBC on news at 10 on Ashcroft
the total sum of the headline news seemed to be when did David Cameron know something that was perfectly legal
the BBC really have made themselves look weak and ridiculous
what is the hold that labour have over them ? Some of them are clearly groupies and are part of the project but for the others it must be getting embarrassing
Nick Palmer MP, I am happy you are getting more donations.
What about Gulam Noon?
Did Lakshmi Mittal drop off some wonga?
Did you get more donations from Swraj Paul?
Were Srichand & Gopichand Hinduja in a giving mood?
The heat is right on Cameron now.
He has to answer some questions soon, surely?
St Vince is piling in as well now.
52 sod all, send 50000 emails and after being filled out the software automatically sums the answers and provides a balanced poll hopefully.
I would be surpridsed if this wasn’t virtually on autopilot by now.
Another meaningless number from YouGov.
Ashcroft, the virtual vote mover. What will it take to move the polls? A story that the public care about. Lord Ashcroft has done and is doing Labour more harm than good. I’m glad to see Nick Palmer admit it’s doing Labour no good. Some of us could have told him that a week ago.
67 - “St Vince is piling in as well now.”
Did he rip Dave a ‘new one’ per chance?
59 - Anyone who thinks Mandy, Mann, Prentice and Huhne throwing hissy fits over something that is not remotely illegal will destroy the Tory election campaign is either mad, or a paid up member of one of the poorer parties.
This site is becoming boring.
It should be about political discusion - not Labour innuendo and the constant need to prove them wrong.
The Tims and Gabbles have too much energy.
This site used to have useful nuggets and links. It is just full of spam these days.
56 - Tim of course it has. Rod the ‘Hari Seldon’ of PB has predicted it.
Perhaps though tonight (as promised I believe) wouls you care to share your top reasons to vote Labour – the Tim pledge care we can cut out, keep and treasure forever?
71 Good fundraiser though. Quite cunning really when you think about it.
ITV: People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stines.
Mandy looked a total fool.
lol.
77 Stones!
Cunning wheeze by
GJove. Set up a school, get allowed to build it on the green belt, landowner gets to bypass planning laws and build houses on it.Hmm. The stability is interesting. However the real question is what broadly is driving Brown Bounce 3? If as I suspect its laregly novelty at Gordon showing his human side, the government machine having got its act together and an an under dog bounce then it will not survive the campaign. Equal Air time and neutrality on Broadcast media will take away the bully pulpit.
However what if Tims senario is correct? Economically driven and backed up by the fairly signifigant shifts in Leader ratings? Particulalrly as the Presidential debates will magnify Leader perceptions?
I still think a steady 6% lead is better for Labour at this stage than 2% because they’ll only win this in a tortoise and a hare sort of way.
if the media narrative changes to ” Labour are going to win” then i think they’ll be the most enormous public reaction and the media will go for them again rather than the current Tory bashing.
Final thought. I’d have expected more non You Gov polling by now given how close we are. But if NI have a daily poll presumably one off specials are less news worthy for papers and thus less likely to be commissioned ?
I’m not sure I like the illiberal concentration of power than a monopoly tracker poll and Presidential Debates brings.
68 - St Vince is in the process of making his hard-earned sage status disappear.
42. High risk strategy - to allow perceptions of your competence to be thus compromised? It makes no sense.
No the simplest theory is the best - The Tories really are that crap.
This government ought to have been beaten out of sight by now.
But i still think the Tories need to be more worried than Labour at the moment.
Not because of the polls, but rather the shifts in the bookies odds. At one bookie i think i saw 7/2 for Labour most seats. I mean this down from 13/2 only a month ago is dramatic. At the very least, all the other bookies are @ 4/1.
And the Tories have come in from 1/12 to 1/7. If this was a horse race just before the off, fav backers would be very nervous right now, especially for a 2 horse race.
Labour now must be saying “Sink the Bismark”.
74 - given the virtual monopoly by the Hurd for the last four years, that is somewhat amusing.
Lance Corporal Jones?
64 - A Chilcot pounding - is that the oxymoron of the year? Brown won’t have any problems at tomorrow’s vicarage tea party. Have another bun, PM?
FPT 520 tim
It was a community navy that rescued British and French troops from Dunkirk in 1940.
A total of 338,226 soldiers (198,229 British and 139,997 French)[2] had been rescued by the hastily assembled fleet of 850 boats.
…
Thousands were carried back to England by the famous “little ships of Dunkirk”, a flotilla of around 700 merchant marine boats, fishing boats, pleasure craft and Royal National Lifeboat Institution lifeboats—the smallest of which was the 15-foot fishing boat Tamzine, now in the Imperial War Museum—whose civilian crews were called into service for the emergency. The “miracle of the little ships” remains a prominent folk memory in Britain.
And it was all achieved without the assistance of Phillip Blond.
82 Indeed. As Napoleon said…
“Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.”
I still think 40/30 is the underlying situation in a long-term sense.
The Tory campaign has been so awful recently that they’re doing 2% less well than they should be, and correspondingly Labour 2% higher.
I think there will be a movement back to 40/30 before long, providing the Tories don’t continue to make big mistakes.
Some stories do take time to seep into the public consciousness and have an effect. It might take a week or so of incessant negative coverage for something relatively minor to most people to start hitting home. Is Ashcroft going to have an impact even then? I’m far from convinced. There are no saints in parliament. To most people they are all a bunch of crooks, so why should we get in a fuss about the fact that some Lord no-one has ever heard of doesn’t live here and avoids some tax? Bit of a bore this story to be honest, and I’m no Tory.
Between now and May or June there will probably be only a handful of stories which will really have a suddent impact on the polls. It’s difficult to tell what they might be - I’m not even sure something like a drug-taking allegation, for instance, would really bother enough people nowadays.
What I think matters most is not hacking off the media in the way Brown so catastrophically managed to with the abortive election - that was stunningly crass. Now that Mandy is back I think Labour probably have the media pretty much covered in that regard. Cameron will have to watch things very carefully. For all his slickness, and nice touches like the Tory iphone app, they still have a propensity to gaffes amongst the shadow front bench.
Which leads me to wonder which is the more photogenic front bench: Tory or Labour?
77. stains. Lord Madelson speaks with plum these days.
85 Brown will find a way to turn it into a pounding.
Mike S - Rope-a-dope is a risky strategy, but I feel that once election rules go into force and the Tories aren’t fighting the media as well as Labour the narrative will change and the beasts will come out in force. I think David Davis is due a return to the front bench as people really seem to like him and he’s a great politician.
I think the best strategy is to keep quiet over this Ashcroft business similar to how Labour did over the Bullying accusations. It will die down eventually and if any unscheduled questions are asked Cameron/front bench can say he has been cleared by EC and no further comments.
80 - Looking quickly at the ARPO figures, Andy Morris specifically refers to the negatives falling for Brown and Darling by eight points between January and February.
This is crucial, they are closing the gap on approvals,losing negatives and starting to overtake on economic trust.
42.”re 28. I think that that is spot-on.”
Mike, I think the hung Parliament narrative certainly helps my party in Scotland as it fights in the same pond as the SNP and the Libdems for the anti Labour vote on GE day.
Chilcott is the Lib Dems’ chance to get a bounce on the back of a Brown dip. Huhne’s Balls-like public appearances are reminding me that there is very little I can put my finger on as a reason to vote Lib Dem (outside of wanting to get rid of odious, troughing, sitting MPs).
Can one of out Lib Dem posters say where the policies will be found so that the Lib Dems can keep their 2005 vote share?
89 “Which leads me to wonder which is the more photogenic front bench: Tory or Labour?”
Neither
I see the Guardian is running with Ashcroft on the front page again. Why? If I were a newspaper editor I’d look for something else to grab readers’ interest even if the story had real legs (which it doesn’t seem to given today’s BBC report reported what we already knew yesterday sans Cameron info). Hasn’t it held the front cover every day now?
92 Labour hardly kept quiet about the bullying allegations-I assume you missed Prescotts meltdown on Newsnight?
95 The LDs truly are an enigma.
28 “The Tories are deliberately running a low-key campign, letting the lead drop to low single digits to encourage turnout and allow for a ‘fightback’ narrative.”
I dont think they are that clever but still there is some benefit.
Labour are digging a deep, deep Mittal/Swraj/Hinduja/Gulam pit over Lord Ashcroft.
Conservatives are giving Labour all the rope they need.
Then there are the polls. First I dont believe them. Second, there are a lot of “shy” conservative voters not declaring. Not because they are shy - but because they are irritated by the Lisbon backtrack. They will however vote against Labour.
92. Yeah, the Tories can keep schtum for now.
But then there are the weirdos, homophobes and anti-semites they cosy up to in the European Parliament to bring to voters’ attention.
Well, I have only one thing to say after coming in from a concert and before retiring.
Today’s media frenzy over Ashcroft proves the old saw that “Lies fly halfway round the world before Truth gets its boots on.”
A truly shameful day for British journalism.
Watching Boris on Ashcroft should be funny.
If he is on form (as he was for People’s Question Time yesterday), he will be even funnier than Hague’s demolition of Harman. If not, he will crumble and wither.
With Boris, there is no middle way!
92. Yeah, the Tories can keep schtum for now.
But then there are the weirdos, homophobes and anti-semites they cosy up to in the European Parliament to bring to voters’ attention.
by BenM March 4th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Oh dear, that has to be the most blatant piece of trolling ever seen. Wonder who will be the first to respond and keep it going?
97 Just think back to the London elections when they tried to convince everyone BoJo was a racist, obviously ignoring pictures of his wife and children.
Even Mike despaired of them during that period.
91 No dyed he set up the enquiry it was and is never going to trouble him.
The other set piece the budget will now happen and Darling clearly went for expectation management in the pre budget report e.g. bankers one off bonus and borrowing requirements. The tories should point out that his forecasts again are wrong and that he has been indulging in expectation management. Clearly there will also be fiddled figures and nasty detail in the small print, that goes without saying.
Its interesting that the week Labour have become hysterical about Ashcroft is the week the Tories stabalise the narrowing polls. If Labour aren’t careful with this they are going to start sending their recent gains into reverse….
31. “Who expected big daily movements in polls?
Anyone who did was mad.”
Anyone who did was making a valid inductive argument based on the behaviour of the daily polls over the conference season, and was proved absolutely right last week by the poll which had the lead down to two points.
97 - The real story people are talking about is little James Bulger’s killer.
I think Nick P is right upthread, nothing much happening to change the polls at the moment.
Chilcott is interesting, it could have some poll impact, though I expect it not to. It certainly can’t HELP Brown though.
92. “I think David Davis is due a return to the front bench as people really seem to like him and he’s a great politician.”
I’d really like to see that. Give him a licence to roam around duffing up lefties at will. Mandy one day, Blinky the next, Burnham, Hattie, Postie, Bananaman; pick them off one by one.
LOOOOL - so all Labours efforts on Ashcroft changed…… nothing
All timbots posts (how many to 18K now botty boy?) result …. no change
Anyone would have thought people had made their mind up…… and its not for 5 more years of spin, smearing and bullying.
Whats next? Arresting the shadow cabinet for talking down the country???
Some advice for tim, spend some time with the family you say you have instead of lying for a party even you say you cant vote for
93. That’s plausible but it’ll only work if it happens very slowly over March. You can’t afford the dialect to back to Labour/non Labour again which as an incumbant government of 13 years it really should be but you’ve been so F**ked that the media have made the dialectic Conservatives back ? / Christ not them again.
By all means recover your reputation for economic competance but do it very slowly.
42 Mike Smithson
So do I. So I guess does James Murdoch.
Dave’s worries will end.
Brown at Chilcot tomorrow.
No more Ashcroft news.
(that’s a haiku)
Apart from the freak poll, the last couple of weeks seem to show voters don’t give a monkey’s about Brown’s bullying, and don’t give a monkey’s about Lord Ashcroft, in spite of the 2 things being mercilessly hammered in the news.
Maybe they actually care about the country, the economy and public services?
110 - I fear Davis has one aim, and smashing lefties won’t help.
115. “Maybe they actually care about the country, the economy and public services?”
Exactly, and they think all politicians are scum, so the scandal and gossip doesn’t shift the polls.
Browm will not like the headlines in the Times or Telegraph.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6265/front_pages_friday_5_march.html
Brown’s cuts cost lives of soldiers…
that will dampen down this ashcroft nonsence. even the beeboids will realise that is a toxic headline.
114 - the Tories will be hoping Chilcot renders Labour’s highest rating 30% henceforth.
The mystery over the shock resignation of Scottish Labour’s rising star Steven Purcell has taken a strange twist. His lawyers have released a letter confirming he has not been receiving treatment for a drugs related problem. So why did he resign and get admitted to a private rehabilitation centre?
I saw him with a group of flunkies and hangers on in a pub in Glasgow a few weeks ago. He just looked like the wee fat jovial chap he is. So Newsnight Scotland being devoted to what is the truth about him tonight. Scottish Labour will not be enjoying this story.
Don’t know if Mike’s still around but for a future ARS poll I’ve got a useful additional question on voter registration that they might want to use i.e. Are you registered to vote? Were you registered to vote in 2005? etc.. It appears that other pollsters are missing what could be an important factor.
Personally speaking, i don’t think Ashcroft, Chilcot, bullying, toffs at the top,internal disputes within parties etc, or even europe, is going to make 1 iota of difference to anything except a few wally journos. The real story is going to be the budget.
That will either win it for labour, or sink them.
112 - I suspect that Andy Morris made a point of commenting on the negatives reducing because is is a very large move, 8% in a month.
The Sunday poll being the freak one suggests that people only click on YouGov to register that they’ll vote Labour on a Friday afternoon when their brains have switched off.
During the working week, the serious head comes on.
#101, by BenM March 4th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
#92. Yeah, the Tories can keep schtum for now.
But then there are the weirdos, homophobes and anti-semites they cosy up to in the European Parliament to bring to voters’ attention.
Ben, a word of advice. Most of the Conservatives on here would find such a characterisation offensive. The best way to attack your opponent is first to understand them.
Apart from that you are a tw@t. I’ll not waste my key-strokes ever again as far as communicating to you.
Chahs,
Boris is the only elected politician on Question Time tonight.
120 - Interesting. But there is a word that often goes before drugs in circumstances like that. Or have they mentioned that too?
Perhaps the Conservatives are playing it cool.
Lulling the lefties into a false sense of victory. Waiting to see the whites of their…then…BLAM! Withering volley fire.
Didnt William the Conqueror trick the saxons into thinking they had won so they broke ranks.
Not sure if the military analogy works - but in the bunker, they definitely think they are at war
sky news front pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Friday-March-5th-2010/Media-Gallery/201003115567496?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15567496_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Friday_March_5th%2C_2010
two broadsheets on the consequences Brown’s defence cuts, the bunker bots have to be reired and reprogrammed.
Lovely balanced question to open Question Time!!
Boris Johnson must be used lots during a GE campaign.
125 - Send him to bed with no supper and with TV rights to be taken away for the week. It’s the only language they understand.
114
Stuck in the doldrums
Cameron complacency
Costing victory
Labour departing
Following the election
Nation rejoices
130 - Ashcroft has a Willie in his pocket.
Some of you just don’t get it. Chilcot is another completely irrelevance.
Noone gives a toss about Iraq anymore and no-one is watching. Utter utter Westminster insider anorak junk, and nothing more. It will have not one iota of impact if Brown does brilliantly or if he’s piss poor.
What a surprise - not.
Ashcroft just doesn’t register with the electorate at large, but doesn the political class understand that? I’ve not heard the name Ashcroft in non-political social circles over the past week. Just goes to show how utterly out of touch with the ordinary day to day realities of voters the Westminster bubble has become.
134 - Tim, enough of the knob gags.
Freud would have a field day with you?
Do you have dreams involving cigars, bananas, and short blunt swords?
101Ben M -Something for the Troll. Please read this from a former diplomat. Then shut up.
http://charlescrawford.biz/blog/even-yet-more-further-labour-kaminski-nonsense
‘When the Law and Justice party won the 2005 general elections, there were a few progressive squeaks about the fact that European Civilisation had just ended since Poland had been kidnapped by wild anti-semitic homophobes.
Closer examination suggested that this was not in fact the case.
Which was why in successive high-level meetings between PM Tony Blair and Polish leaders there was not one word of concern expressed publicly or privately by the British side on these scores.
I know because I was in on all these meetings.
And, yes, in 2005 Michal Kaminski himself was there at the No 10 dining-table next to PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, scoffing prawn cocktail as Tony Blair’s guest.
If David Miliband will not apologise to Michal Kaminski and sticks to his guns that Kaminski is a disgrace, maybe he should then apologise to the British people for Labour using taxpayers’ money to host such a disgraceful person at this high level and then resign?
And while he is at it, he also might explain why not a single word of instructions issued to us in Warsaw from London to take up with the Polish side issues of anti-semitism, Jedwabne and all this other stuff.”’
Said earlier on the Lib Dems would be down to 17%. When I am polled they are at 19% - days when Iam not down to 17%. Bet the regional samples are very different to yesterday
Surely people can see that this poll is nonsense. A true reflection would have the Tories on 93%, Lab 2, LD 1, Others 3. Until the pollsters stop over-weighting the Labour share I for one will simply refuse to pay my taxes on the grounds that the media are totally and utterly brainwashed by the leftist global conspiracy and anyway I don’t think failing to pay taxes is so bad when one considers how this so-called “government!” has completely and utterly failed to ….. (complete according to extent of psychotic paranoid right-wing delusion)
Great start to Question Time (until Boris the Loony Toff Buffoon came on)
By the way, Tory pedants, that’s right - I deliberately didn’t, make the figures add up to 100% - so there!
The Daily Telegraph and Times front pages are quite devastating for Brown as he goes before Chilcott.
The nation may not give two hoots about a lot of things, but soldiers being killed due to Gordon Brown’s penny pinching certainly will.
noisy at 45: I’ve often been asked that here. My basic view is that Butler and King were correct that a local campaign can change a result by up to 5%. The Tories need a 2.4% swing to take Broxtowe (equivalent to a national lead with UNS of 2%). for various reasons that didn’t apply in 2005, I think I have a shot at it if the Tories do not lead nationally by more than 7%. Beyond that, not. I think that’s about as frank as you can reasonably expect me to be?
47: you’d have to ask her, but I’ve always been upfront about the Comms Allowance - I’ve set up sample mailings on a website so people can assess if I’ve used it properly or not - see http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxComms/messages . Similarly I’ve publicised the £1500 that my CLP gets from UNITE.
jimeno: none of these gentlemen have ever given me anything, alas.
fluffy: there aren’t any secrets and it’s all reported every year to the Electoral Commission in the proper way. But I doubt if you especially want a long list of people sending me tenners and £20s? Politically I’d rather get £2500 in small sums since the act of donation binds people into the extended campaign - they’re much more likely to tell their neighbours, deliver some leaflets, etc. The previous appeal two weeks earlier produced over 100 new volunteer deliverers, none of them party members. (To put this stuff in context, the email list is 4000 strong, so it’s not exactly an uprising of the whole population.)
137 - I could call him Bill Hague, its still a knob joke.
How the hell is Boris Johnson mayor. Shirley Williams is wiping the floor tonight.
120 Easterross
Look at the consultant’s wording very carefully.
He says that Purcell “was not treated for a drug problem”.
The man was in for only a few days, and absconded on the Sunday.
Of course, he “was not treated”. There are few conditions that can be treated so quickly. Nothing is being said about whether any such treatment was intended - and it would be quite improper to speculate about that.
144. Because he’s the most charismatic man in British politics.
28 - great post
That exactly encapsulates what I think, I guess internal Tory polling showed support shallow and wide, and needed the ‘hung parliament threat’ to jolt the weakest segment of the coalition into line to vote when it really matters.
143 - You never used to be this boring. What happened? Gordon Brown not resigning on New Years Day taken the wind out of your sails?
Rhubarb, rhubarb!
Boris is wonderful.
Can we not put him up as often as the Lib Dems put up Huhne, preferably against him?
Andrew Adonis… who voted for him?
140.
Anyone who ends a post with ’so there’ is sure to drain the patience of any pber.
Prepare to be ignored.
Now I’m remembering why Carol Voderman was my first ever crush.
Is Vorderman sober?
Nick thanks for the answer, still amused that you felt the need to beg to “level the playing field” when you benefit from so much taxpayers cash, but appreciate the trouble taken to answer, so few do.
Quick a woman is talking, bunkerbots ATTACK!
Sensible lady in red dress on QT..
Gordon Brown going before Chilcot was his smart move, not what he actually says when he’s there.
Once he has done that, then much of the ‘bottler’ narrative surrounding him will go, as will the remainder when he calls the general election, assuming it is not June 3rd.
I think old GB is turning out to be much more canny than we gave him credit for. This is, unless Mandy is behind it all. In which case, it is him.
ITV news a bit of a car crash for the Government. Stories covered after the kidnap in Pakistan were:
1. Injured soldier not getting fair compensation
2. Snatch land rovers and questions for Brown tomorrow
3. Ashcroft coverage including Mandelson implosion and “glass houses comment”
4. Children’s deaths at Oxford hospital
5. Government not telling the public what John Venables has done.
151. Abso-bloody-lutely. Carol Vorderman laying into Peter Mandelson is the most erotic thing I’ve heard since Carla Bruni’s debut album.
Yeah Question Time! Tories hammered by actual “people”
Carol Vorderman and Boris - what a pair of jokers.
Carol Vordeman is such a moron. Will Self is brilliant as per usual.
Boris is somewhere up Carols behind right now. I’ll let you know when he is out.
Ashcroft given a nice airing on QT tonight.
159 - You weren’t dropped as a child were you? No you were drop kicked werent you?
158 - Have to admit, I would take Rachel Riley these days.
Almost a cheer from the audience about Brown’s handling of defense budgets in a war situation.
160 - nobdy ever thinks Will Self is brilliant except Will Self. I think your identity has been revealed.
#151, by The Screaming Eagles March 4th, 2010 at 10:48 pm
Now I’m remembering why Carol Voderman was my first ever crush.
Sorry but she is a dawg compared to the blonde bint Stelling now has on Countdown. Absolute stunner and all places in the correct proportions. [And to keep it on topic, I bet she's a Tory too...!]
152. That comment doesn’t surprise me.
I suspect everytime you get close to a beautiful woman, she is drunk.
159: Really? Adonis looks very uncomfortable. No Tory hammering so far. Just people speaking over each other and Vorderman clearing attacking Labour’s hypocrisy
163. Careful!
Will Self’s getting a bit old for this angry, smug student thing.
153 - thanks, Don.
By the way, Anthony Wells has clarified why the YouGov London poll was over a long period:
“The Evening Standard has London voting intention figures based on the aggregated data from the YouGov daily polling over the last week or so (I should add that the raw data is aggregated as if it were all one poll, and then collectively weighted to London targets – so it is the equivalent of doing a London poll, just with the sample invited in lots of little chunks rather than one big go).”
I think that’s fair enough, but it makes comparisons with national polls tricky as they varied over the period. FWIW, it seemed to show the Tories doing slightly better in London than nationally, but within MOE.
160. “Boris is somewhere up Carols behind right now.”
I’d pay a decade of Lord Ashcroft’s back taxes to join him.
37: ‘I wonder if Chilcot tommorow will make a difference.’
The Chilcot inquiry will benefit the Tories. Brown’s military underspending will definitely be mentioned and therefore Dr Fox will dominate the airwaves - all dark, mysterious good looks and smoldering Scottish accent! Labour, in contrast, will be represented by that bloke with the funny moustache. The subject of the military will also focus the public’s mind on all those Victoria Crosses Lord Ashcroft saved for the nation thus turning Lord Ashcroft into a national treasure!
166 SallyC
171 - Is that with or without Boris?
Carol, Vorderman, hmmmm, pretty, but somehow odd.
To me she’s only sexy because of her great figure, but in terms of her actual sexiness, i find her a little insipid.
Maybe its her, erm, errr, dunno.
But on looks, she’s 8/10. On sex appeal appeal, she’s 7/10. But on that crucual factor of rivetingness, shes about 3/10.
Strange but there you are.
146
For “charismatic” read “bumbling incompetent fop with underlying extreme right prejudices”
166 - Oh dear, all your jokes predate 2005 none of your political knowledge does.
169. Never fear. tim is grooming the next generation on here it would seem.
I expect Adonis to be better than he actually is, which is poor.
Adonis surely must be some sort of android?
174. I’m willing to share.
Is this Carol Vorderman’s first appearance on QT?
By the way, can someone remind which day Mike was on Newsnight? I want to watch it on iPlayer.
Adonis seems an odd choice for Labour to put up for Question Time.
140 ‘By the way, Tory pedants, that’s right - I deliberately didn’t, (sic) make the figures add up to 100%, so there?
And that proves what, exactly? That you can neither add up nor punctuate? They are sad deficiencies, certainly. But they pale into insignificance by comparison with your inability to think for yourself.
173 Yes, but I usually use it on someone with a sense of humour.
skewed QT audience, 2nd time in a row?
Chilcott will have zero impact. Asked my wife how Brown would do and she had no idea that Brown was attending or why.
176 - that didn’t work on Labour’s libellous and racist election literature and it isn’t going to work now.
181 - From experience, when there is another guy there, always keep your eyes on the woman, and watch where your hands go.
And if you’re a child of the 80’s, you must resist the urge to do a Ghostbusters and cross streams.
Oh dear - vorderman’s a shrill Tory partisan. And not a very good one either.
Bribtw*t176… And yet he still won. Against Ken. That must have hurt. How did you explain it to yourselves. Racist voters? False conciousness? the ignorant bourgeoisie?
Oh dear, Vorderman attacks the Dark Lord, not very clever.
Stick to 1 from the top and 5 from any where else love.
189. As if you’d withstand the temptation to high five BoJo when he’s on the job.
190 - for you to be calling someone a “shrill partisan” is positively hilarious.
Yes, Vorderman is shrill.
190- She’s very good, actually. Very clear attack lines on Labour.
Oh dear - vorderman’s a shrill Tory partisan. And not a very good one either.
by BenM March 4th, 2010 at 11:02 pm
Brilliant, not even a hint of irony.
185. There is no place for humour while the proletariat suffer under the yolk of capitalism Comrade.
193 - I choose not to answer that question on grounds of taste, and that my answer may incriminate me.
171 - vor der man being German for “in front of the man”
You can’t get a clearer instruciton than that
I can’t quite work out why, but Question Time isn’t a patch on Any Questions
guidofawkes
Carol Vorderman could be a British Sarah Palin with added facts. #bbcqt
201 Dimbleby senior ?
Is there anyone who doesn’t think Peter Mandelson attacking anyone over probity in finanacial matters is even slightly hypocritical?
Hands up.
192. But Mandy is ‘1 from the top’ isn’t he?
200 - Which reminds me of a true story involving a pure and innocent solicitor who posts on pb.com
My then girlfriend accused me of having sex behind her back.
My reply was
“Well who did you think it was? Wouldn’t hurt you to turn around occasionally to see how I’m doing”
185 - Sally.
I have a fine sense of humour.
I doubt conhome would publish poll results on the bssis of twitter.
by SallyC February 23rd, 2010 at 12:32 am
Con Home put the graphic up at midnight.
Just as likely Kellner is wrong as tim m.
by SallyC February 23rd, 2010 at 12:38 am
See how funny that is?
Sadly there’s a large gap between your knowledge and what you think you know.
Carol better watch out, she’s getting the evil eye from adonis, the labour machine will be out to drive her into the dirt.
202, tim in 5.4.3.2.1, (unless he has already beaten me to it)
203 I’ve got it - Question Time = Any Questions + Any Answers
Any Answers is the bit no-one bothers to listen to
201- I think Humphries was better than Dimbleby when he was caretaker chair. He was well briefed on the issues and knew when to insert his own questions to the panel. Dimbleby can seem quite rude when speaking to the audience and sometimes his constant panel interruptions block proper debate
206. Plagiarising Jimmy Carr? For shame…
I know Carol Vordeman is very bright but on a political programme I expected her to be out of her depth. So far I think she’s doing very well.
Compare with Kirsty Allsop who I’ve seen on QT twice - and she floundered badly.
Carol Vorderman: not the qualifications to be a Maths teacher under Tory proposals, yet finds herself as Tory Maths advisor.Did she get the job by processing Ashcroft’s donations?
And Boris: I ..sort …of…yes..jolly…rhubarb …prep school…ah…teddy bear …um … yaah…
212 - He nicked it from me. I used that line in 2000.
206 -
208 - they’ll get the Treasury to do all those sums on Countdown she wasn’t able to do to prove she’s stupid. Then the Treasury will have to admit they did it wrong, and for some reason nobody will care that a Government department is being used to attack the opposition.
213. Struggling now though!
126 Borris is the only “current” elected politian on Newsnight
..ok on Question time not Newsnight…oops
207.
Look everyone, tim has done a poo in his potty. Everyone clap and say well done.
214 yawn. Yet he still got elected Mayor. How did it happen? How could they do it to poor Ken?.
Vorderman is desperately out of her depth.
If wants Venables identity revealed, how much extra cash and organisation involved in the prison service would that involve?
Thankfully all the other panelists are more level headed.
Is it wrong that I actually agree with Will Self over Jon Venables?
207 - “Sadly there’s a large gap between your knowledge and what you think you know.”
Sadly there’s a large gap between your perception of reality and reality itself.
222 - not at all, most intelligent people will.
Will Self could easily be a giant of the Left-Wing but he keeps himself in obscurity which is a deep shame.
222. Nah. He’s right.
222 - no. So do I
Blimey, just agreed with Carol too!
222 - No. He’s right.
Sometimes, when he tries to make a valid point, he does. It’s just that usually he hides his good points under about 200 paragraphs of Self-regarding twaddle.
gabyhinsliff
ahem, tories. still considering parachuting carol vorderman into govt via the Lords? still time to change your minds. #bbcqt
Next I’ll be agreeing with Simon Heffer.
Is Will Self the vainest twat in Britain?
“Commentators like me have been expressing doubts about Afghanistan for some time…”
Sorry Will who elected you “commentator”?
230 You’ll know you are suffering from severe sleep deprivation.
OT - but relevant to the site.
In some ways, this site is getting too popular for it’s own good.
On several threads recently, there have been complaints made to OGH about very slow loading from the site.
Goodness knows what will happen when we start the GE campaign proper.
In order to ease the load, how about automatically restricting the number of posts per day per poster to 10 or 15?
22 he is right about not revealing identity. He is wrong that there is not something premeditated about what venables and Thomson did on that day, you can see that from he video.
231
Thought you were.
233. Disraeli
As you only post a couple of times a day can I have the rest of your quota?
232 - I actually had my first decent nights sleep in 6months last night.
Is Cameron putting Vorderman and Allsopp in the Lords?
FFS, he puts Warsi in there rather than getting her into the Commons, then trawls the TV studios for embarrassing people to join her.
The f*cking reason we need to know what Venables has done - apparently missed by all the usual leftards on here - is because the gravity of his new crime might tell us if the policy of release and rehabilitation was correct. i.e. whether our Home office has made a terrible mistake.
If Venables has just shot a red light, then his release and rehabilitation was justified. If he has again been murdering small children, then VERY DEFINITELY NOT.
As they won’t tell us, we have no idea if the powers-that-be are covering up their grotesque mistake.
237 - Wife still in hospital?
237 Learnt to sleep through the crying already?
‘I didn’t hear a thing darling….’
238 - could be worse; either of them could be Alan Sugar.
labour plant with weird facial hair blows it, completely.
233 I think Disraeli’s suggestion is very sensible.
Like Carbon Trading, we should be able to sell our quotas.
This way we can all make money off tim.
‘labour plant with weird facial hair blows it, completely.’
Sounds like a classic LibDem.
224- Have to disagree. An audience whooping and clapping that Venables may not be ‘evil’ was disgusting.
Will Self asked ‘what good does knowing the nature of Venable’s offence do Bulger’s family? It’s unlikely that he would affect the Bulger family again.’ On that logic, why lock anyone up? No criminal is to target the same family twice.
239 - I thought he’d beaten up a fellow worker or something, also drugs. If I know that, given I haven’t been near a radio or TV for most of the day then surely pretty much everyone’s got it by now, no?
240 - No it was her first night back
241 - No, the babies are still in hospital, will be in for at least another week or so (it’s fine, they are just waiting for their lungs to properly develop, they were born 5 weeks premature)
Was this anywhere in any of the IPCC reports?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8550687.stm
It comes to something when the Beeb are now reporting cold weather!!
The two market leaders for next Conservative leader are Boris and Hague.
Neither will get the job.
Speaking of early crushes called Carol, Carol Decker from T’Pau is doing Sky’s paper review…
237 – TSE, grab sleep when you can cos the rug rats will soon start teething.
Don’t know if they still sell ‘gripe water’ but it works wonders – swig a bottle of that before bedtime and you’ll sleep like a log.
248. Good luck with that. I am sure by the time they get home they will make full use of their lungs.
Boris: I must be allowed to keep butting in, I’m an old Etonian.
Labour plant(shirley williams) talks about IHT nonsense.
239. Moron SeanT.
Thank heavens you’re nowhere near the levers of power.
Labour plant (self) talks about bullingdon
I’ve just realised that Boris is a very clever debater, he disguises verbal bullying and blatant overspeaking as exuberance and joshing - and it works.
Will Self is 10% super-smart and 90% self-esteem.
Vorderman is Sarah Palin for the Mensa Set.
Adonis is an etiolated dipstick.
Waste of an hour. Should have alphabetised my DVD collection.
Shirley was the true star of tonight. Adonis may as well have stayed at home. Dimbleby was too biased. Boris was Boris (and did neither good or bad). Voldermort was a mess and Will Self was also great.
231 - ‘Is Will Self the vainest twat in Britain?’
Yes. He once reviewed some novel or other and declared that it contained many ideas that he’d had himself but had deemed insufficiently brilliant to include in his own work.
258 SeanT
That disguise has never worked. His poor behaviour has always been bloody obvious.
Has PB become the long-form version of Twitter now?
dimbleby is a lib dem you wally.
Did Boris just out Dmbleby as a Bullingdon member ?
Poor Carol Vorderman getting in the neck from some on here tonight I see, but then she did rather suck the oxygen out of the Libdem/Lab attacks on Lord Ashcroft in a rather clinical and systematic way. Totally changed the tone of the audience and the question. Well done.
252 - I’m very good at putting babies to sleep, I sing some classic rock to them, or some classical stories.
253 - I’m hoping they are like me, I was a quiet baby.
Vorderman was good on Mandelson but went downhill quite fast after that.
Adonis seems an odd choice for Labour to put up for Question Time
Not really - he may not be the most engaging figure but he is dramatically less obnoxious and loathsome than most of Labour’s ‘leading figures’.
Boris was too much the clown tonight. He should have said more about Tory policy (public sector pay freeze, cutting ID cards, etc).
Shirley Williams is just an old bagpuss. Her career should have been taken to the vet some time ago.
262. Disagree. Bozza got elected London Mayor using exactly the same shtick. Not a man to be underestimated.
If Cameron loses and Brown gets a few more years in office, I reckon charming upbeat Bojo might feel like Just Wot The Doctor Ordered to a depressed and Labour-hating British electorate in, say, 2012.
248 - My first daughter was born by emergency caesarian, she cried for thirty six hours.The midwives noticed my wife and I desperately needed some sleep, and we thought we needed to stay awake.
They took her away for a bath until we’d fallen asleep, left us, and brought back a new calm baby and gave her back to us when we woke up, relaxed.
I f~cking love the NHS.
269. Indeed he’s about the only one in the senior echelons of the Labour Government who hasn’t got a whole graveyard full of skeletons trailing behind him…..
Breaking news: Mugabe endorses Cameron as PM! You couldn’t make it up. Mad fascist dictators for Wobbler!
271. Bagpuss was a harmless and charming - if slightly dotty - children’s character. Williams is none of these things.
247 No. Not me.
271 SeanT
He was voted in by the same people who think PMQs and the behaviours there are clever. Nuff said.
Good evening. Don’t know if this was posted before:
“Alexander Lebedev, the former KGB spy, is the new owner of The Independent, industry sources told The Times.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article7050453.ece
Just a word on QT tonight. Carol Vorderman, WTF? How can one so brainy be so stupid. Among the worst guests I have ever seen. Hugely disappointing.
274. Breaking? Gabble (IIRC) posted it hours ago.
274 - It’s amazing what Labour will organise to stay in power.
214 “Carol Vorderman: not the qualifications to be a Maths teacher under Tory proposals, yet finds herself as Tory Maths advisor”
Clearly more qualified than any Labour Defence Minister.
279. Question Time is always disappointing, the TV equivalent of stale beer or mouldy bread.
266. Yes. She did an excellent job doing what many of us on here had been urgently requesting just a few hours before - get out there and attack Mandelson for his fraud and lies, Lib Dems for their cant and stealing. Etc.
And it worked. The guns were totally spiked. The Ashcroft debate fizzled out into a general tit-fot-tat chaos, with - if anything - Labour and the Lib Dems looking more exposed for being the more pompous and holier-than-thou.
I hope CCHQ was watching. This is the way to beat these attacks - fight back you feeble nerds.
After that Vorderman became more incoherent, but so did everyone. A messy edition of the programme - though mildly entertaining.
Tristram Hunt now being an economic illiterate on This Week.
255 - You feel Shirley Williams is a Labour plant? That’s one great cover story she’s got - “as I nearly wrecked the party, nobody will suspect I am a Labour agent, ha!”.
From the article:
“It is understood that Mr Lebedev could still bring in a high-profile name to take charge of the papers. Greg Dyke, the former Director-General of the BBC, and Jeremy Paxman, the Newsnight presenter, are said to be on his wish-list.”
279 bob a job
I’d give her one
Shirley Williams - Useless
Boris - Awesome, as always
Adonis - Overshadowed completely and out of sorts when Dimbelby was pressuring over Johnson/Straw split
Voredaman - Decent enough, but shrill at points and a bit too forceful
Self - Idiot. As always. Patronising, pontificating, arrogant twat.
Audience had a definite Labour slant which is strange given the Tories are polling ahead of Labour in London…
284 SeanT, as Ms Vorderman and Mrs Thatcher showed us, only a woman has the balls.
270.
he was excellent last night on the london QT, even I was surprised how on top of his brief he was. he’d clearly not bothered for tonight though
Oh I see I’m not the only one (just logged on). Carol Vorderman, all round fail.
278. Another joke owner for a joke newspaper. It’s starting to resemble Portsmouth FC.
Nick Palmer MP can you tell me if the Labour backers, Lord Paul, Mittal, Lord Powderject Drayson pay tax?
2786 – Why is the KGB interested in buying the Global Warming Daily..?
Circulation is spiralling downwards and it loses £millions, Greg Dyke will not change things one jot.
288
Yaah … awesome …yaah …rhubarb… errrm….aaah…yaaah
294. The same reasons that shady businessmen continue to fall over themselves to take control of football clubs which are sinking in oceans of red ink.
See 295.
Please everyone. Don’t feed the troll.
G.night
Tristram Hunt… SeanT is that rhyming slang?
288.
mandy and the Beeb have been fixing the audience for weeks
296 someone told me a football club is very difficult to audit for taxes.
299 “mandy and the Beeb have been fixing the audience for weeks”
mandy and the Beeb have but weeks left to fix the audience.
300 – Did he have a Russian accent..?
295 - This troll is starting to malfunction, call in the new one.
BTW, there are actually eight Shirley Williams, that’s why she appears to be everywhere.
285 - Yes, not one of the best paranoid suggestions ever made.
Unbelievable stupidity from Tristram Hunt
297
Good night dear. Sweet little Tory dreams of big Dave
Sage advice coming up
If you want to make a small fortune out of sport or newspapers, start with a large fortune.
@SeanT. you are a blinkered dung beetle. Vorderman jjust trotted out “same as each other” line - hardly the wisdom of gods - and then proceeded to embarass herself by failing to even grasp the nub of the discussion during the Bulger debate. She was just a shrill and reactionary pain in the rear end, who
managed to destroy 10,001 schoolboy fantasies in an hour’s work.
241.SallyC, the only baby book I ever rated had a great piece of advice for mothers who had partners who managed to sleep through a crying baby. He advised that a good poke in the back worked everytime!
250 tim
The two market leaders for next Conservative leader are Boris and Hague.
Neither will get the job.
A strong endorsement from an unlikely source for a three term Cameron government.
288.. mc bride meetings at bbc, you could be right.
288 - Don’t talk rubbish. The audience clearly agreed with Self almost unanimously on his points and had far more substantiated points than Voldermort.
309 Yes, I had to use it most nights to wake you up and present child for feeding nicely freshened up.
255 Wouldn’t put it past your lot, nick. Especially given the boy david steel’s love affair with gordon.
Tim and Gabble (and those who keep engaging these two repeatedly) make reading the comments section on here feel like embarking on a marathon each day.
I love the site. Some of the polling analysis from contributors here is absolutely top notch. But it’s such hard work having to wade through all the childish nonsense when I visit, I doubt I will keep coming back for very long.
313 - yay, domestic! popcorn ready
308. Dull, and wrong.
312. Wrong, and dull.
In that order.
252.Simon, colic first, then teething. Best gift I got was a car seat that adjusted into a rocking cradle. Perfect for the colic days, kept the boys almost sitting up at an angle and they loved being rocked to sleep in it when they had colic. Lying them down flat in their cot when they had it just aggravated it. I remember the first time my sister left my niece with us, and she had to be pushed out the door because the wee one had colic and it could go on for a while. Fitaloon and I pointed out that we had dealt with a few times, and she couldn’t believe it when she came home to a sleeping baby.
“288 - Don’t talk rubbish. The imported audience clearly were paid to agree with Self almost unanimously on his points.”
315 Michael Branch
Some of the polling analysis from contributors here is absolutely top notch.
It is indeed, Michael, but 24 hours of even the most expert and original polling analysis would soon tire.
Hague is a dead man walking.
He cannot survive this.
304 “Yes, not one of the best paranoid suggestions ever made.”
Calm down david, I was partly joking.
221 - Your odds? How much?
Oddly enough Hague was a “dead man walking” yesterday before PMQ’s and then nothing, the same this morning and nothing after the EC exonerated Ashcroft and now this afternoon nothing….
Unless of course hes a zombie already, but then wouldnt Mandy have felt it in the force?
At a time when others are facing a pay freeze is this really wise?
MPs will get a rise of nearly £1,000 in their basic salary from 1 April, taking their pay to £65,737 a year.
The 1.5% rise follows uproar at the MPs’ expenses scandal and anger among public sector unions at pay freezes.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8550850.stm
@seant. Great response mate! Must be time for bed! Vorderman: a guest only the most blinkered reactionary could love. Incredibly ignorant for a near-genius.
I am not expecting much from the dead sheep tomorrow. Brown will witter and they will allow him and be as forensic as blancange.
What Brown may not see coming is the reaction of the families he is meeting and the press reaction after their briefing.
This will reignite the underfunding of the troops meme again and it will be after his appearance that Brown will, as always, sink himself. Probably by smugly assuming he ‘got away with it’.
Why day was Mike on Newsnight? I’d like to watch it on iPlayer. Thanks.
321 tim
Cameron needs Hague more than Hague needs Cameron. [In that order].
They all knew what Ashcroft’s tax status was. Frankly it doesn’t mattter.
Hague’s only mistake was to speculate in his letter to the Cabinet Office that the revenue would gain £10 million a year in additional taxes from the promised change in Ashcroft’s tax status. It is not a hanging offence.
The electorate recognise Labour and Lib Dem’s attack for what it is. A cynical, hypocritical but ineffective attempt to neutralise Tory advantage in marginal constituencies.
How many bond or currency crises are needed to get the politicians and media to focus on the real issues?
321. I’ll offer you £100 at evens that Hague stays Shadow Foreign Sec until the GE.
This is a bet you must surely take. Unless, of course, your comment that he is a Dead Man Walking was just you guffing under your duvet of pointless overstatement. Again.
You have until tomorrow to respond. I am abed, after another day of CBEEBIES and childcare.
Goodnight, sweet ladies, good night.
Sally Bercow really should switch off her Blackberry
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7370327/Undiplomatic-Speakers-wife-Sally-Bercow-makes-internet-jokes-about-Jacob-Zuma.html
322 - Fair enough, but some people think (and post to the effect) that every single person in British society is against the Tories.
It’s just not true, and some of those people are ready to blame the media for a Tory defeat if it comes. If the Tories are beaten, and I still don’t think they will be, it will be at least 50% their own fault. Labour should not have a hope in hell of winning an election this year.
328 - It was Monday
I find hard to believe because of the debates but:
“Parties put on alert that Gordon Brown may go for 15 April election
(…)Labour Party sources have told The Scotsman they believe that the Prime Minister is preparing for mid-April as part of an attempt to maximise Conservative embarrassment over Lord Ashcroft and to avoid the announcement of potentially damaging economic data later in the month.
The reports circulating about an 15 April date were heightened yesterday when Leader of the House Harriet Harman announced a curtailed business agenda.”
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/uk/Parties-put-on-alert-that.6126378.jp
Her brain is switched off Tweet from Ms Bercow earlier
@willself was tweeting under the table throughout #bbcqt. Brilliant.
Seems she didn’t realise it was recorded
329 - I can’t understand for the life of me why he didn’t tell Cameron for s month.
330 - Of course he will, it is too late to move him now unless it threatens the Tories campaign.
But he’s going to the Home Office I’d guess.
Unconfortable reading for Brown with Chilcot tomorrow
Army denied vital equipment in Iraq and Afghanistan, claims former SAS head
British troops were deprived of the right equipment to fight wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and were still being hampered by a lack of resources, the former head of special forces has claimed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7371543/Army-denied-vital-equipment-in-Iraq-and-Afghanistan-claims-former-SAS-head.html
324: ‘Oddly enough Hague was a “dead man walking” yesterday before PMQ’s and then nothing, the same this morning and nothing after the EC exonerated Ashcroft and now this afternoon nothing…’
I adore tim - he provides a fascinating insight into Labour’s methods, priorities and obsessions, but his prognostications on the career prospects of leading Tories (Coulson’s being gone by the end of last year, a particular hoot) has been a long-running malfunction.
Turns out the that Ashcroft story been quite the epic flop for the Labour and Lib Dems.
The polls have swung away from Labour again! A shame, or shame on them that their little consquiracy was so irrelevant to issues and problems of the ordinary man in the street!
Makes you laugh at their abandonment of issues facing the country (millions) in favour of conspiracies again one man!
336 - No, no Pickles is going to the Home Office, reward for masterminding a Tory Majority of 100.
313.Fitaloon.
Team work at its best!
321.Sorry tim, if the Tory party couldn’t finish off Hague, you amateurs in the Labour party ain’t going to manage it!
309 ChristinaD
I think my wife must have read that book - or just did it through instinct!
333 - thanks.
I wonder if any of us have ever flown with this pilot at the controls:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/7365800/Pilot-arrested-after-flying-with-fake-licence-for-13-years.html
340 - That was another strange point of agreement between OGH and me, the Pickles promotion and replacing Grayling, but hague has to go somewhere to keep the grass roots happy, god only knows where.
Grayling Lansley and Hague are the Tories three legged stool.
342 - I suspect Willie will finish himself off.
345 - sounds like you have accepted the inevitability of a Con win tim
336 tim
I can’t understand for the life of me why he didn’t tell Cameron for s month.
If you believe that you will be moved to the lowest stream and be forced to learn domestic science and woodwork with BriBrad and BenM. Even Lilly Allen will be a class above.
To give the media the benefit of the doubt.
I think the media look for easy stories and narratives that sell. Now the problem with this is that Labour will happily feed and create whatever narrative if it helps them however far from the truth it is. It seems to me - again giving the media the benefit of the doubt - that the media have formed a quite cosy relationship with a deceitful Labour party, and the Tories don’t seem to have formed that relationship. I see that as a good sign that the Tories will look to govern in the best interests of the country not in the best interests of journos and their stories.
Of course that leads though to the problem that Labour are apparently the better media manipulators, which in turn manipulate the public.
Naively, perhaps I would like to think that there are some journos out there that might actually look beyond the next story and see that Labour has truly screwed the country.
I hope that gives a more nuanced version of why I believe there is a media bias against the tories.
You might think the Tories should play the narrative game more effectively but frankly I think that = poor government(granted if they get there)
345 - Is odd, I was quite a fan of Grayling, when he was covering Work and Pensions, I guess the Shadow Home Affairs Brief is much as a graveyard as being Home Secretary.
The ideal tory Shadow Cabinet right now, would Pickles as Shadow Home Sec, Hague as Shadow Foreign, and Ken Clarke as Shadow Chancellor (Not that is criticism of Osborne, more that Ken Clarke is popular and has a reputation for economic management, that no-one in politics has)
349 was for david roe at 332.
Also I am sorry to post and run but I am going to have to shoot off to bed, perhaps we can pick it up another time.
Carol Vorderman was painful viewing on Question Time tonight. At least she can count.
In happier news (*puts on Canadian accent*) another terrr-ible poll for the Conservative party.
347 - You know what Kristin, I had.
My spread bets and so on were based on a 20 seat movement up/down and cash in before a Tory Govt.
But you know what?
I’m not so sure anymore.
The Tories have been such a shambles recently I think there is a real chance that they can blow it.
My ideal betting, political and philosophical outcome, which looked impossible a few months ago is now perhaps a 10% chance.
331.Kristin, some clever journalist should make a weekly column out of Sally Bercow’s twits, a bit like Private eye did with the Dennis Thatcher/Bill Deedes letters. I cannot believe that I am saying this, but her twittering actually makes me think more highly of Bercow.
348 - You think Fox wants Hagues job and dropped him in it?
334. Can’t buy April 15th. If they wanted to maximise the Ashcroft discomfort and avoid bad ecomonic news late in April, then Brown should have taken the trip down the Mall on Monday and gone for March 25th. That way he could have avoided presenting a pre-election budget.
They would find it difficult to go for April 15th and avoid giving a budget.
It would also mean 2 elections in 3 weeks, which would be unlikely to go down well.
343.oldnat, team work, you can’t beat it. We had 3 boys in 3 and half years, so we were pretty much on auto pilot by the time No3 arrived.
Screaming Flying Dad Ken C is not as he used to be. His brain is fine as is his economic judgment but his stumbling over his formal speech earlier this week was not fine.
It read well in print but on video George outshone him easily with a firm presentation and better voice after a little coaching.
And that reminds me that someone is telling Brown to slow his speech down. His intervention over the kiddy killer today was so slow I thought he was going to fall asleep.
I’m right to assume we can rule out March 25th as a date for the election now?
350 TSE
Cameron didn’t mention George Osborne as his future Chancellor when introducing key members of his shadow cabinet in Brighton.
If Osborne doesn’t get the job it will by mutual agreement. I have always thought that Cameron will need a pack of expendable Chancellors to push through the economic remedies. Clarke for two years followed by Hammond would make sense. Osborne could be given Deputy PM or First Minister rank with responsibility for strategy and chairing the Treasury-Spending Ministries Cabinet Committee.
I would still only make structure a 30% chance.
Anecdote alert..
On the phone earlier to my oldest friend, never heard of Ashcroft.
All she wanted to talk about, understandably as her husband is in there, was the dreadful state of Tameside hospital. She normally watches Living TV (don’t ask) and doesn’t follow politics at all but votes Green. She has a reminder set for Panorama next week when Tameside is being covered. That’s Purnell’s patch though she lives in High Peak. It’s a marginal, and should be an easy Con win, but I’m still reeling from the fact that she nows says she would vote Conservative. We have been friends for over 40 years and believe me that is some shift.
Polls, who cares, it’s what you hear everyday from non political people that tells you which way the wind is blowing.
359. Yes Mr Eagles, that option expired on Monday.
359. “I’m right to assume we can rule out March 25th as a date for the election now?”
Yes, it’s not even technically possible, as far as I can see.
350 - Disagree completely.
The ideal Tory Shadow Cabinet would be.
Chancellor - Gove
Home - Warsi
FS - Grieve
Chairman (& strategy) - Osborne
Business - Clarke
Local Govt & Communities (beefed up for localism) - Pickles.
Crikey is that the time? Toodle pip all.
355 tim
No.
353 - keep the faith tim, you know you want to
An election called for the 8th April would be possible next week, with day 0 of the campaign on 12th March latest.
For the 15th April it would have to be day 0 on 18th March latest.
Health - Shapps.
Chief Secretary - Hammond.
Education - Clark
Environment - Hague, Graying and Lansley on a rotational basis.
361. “Polls, who cares, it’s what you hear everyday from non political people that tells you which way the wind is blowing.”
I’m not sure about that philosophy. Polls can of course be wrong, but the broad trends they show are generally accurate, and the long-term trend at present is clear for all to see (across all pollsters). The danger with relying on anecdotes is of placing too much emphasis on things that support what you want to believe, and not enough on the contrary evidence that’s also out there under your nose. There were some Conservatives who honestly thought they were going to win the 1997 election.
15th of April? Two elections 3 weeks apart ? Run the risk of not wanting to hear bad news from Q1, can’t see it myself, though I’d win more money if it happens.
When are we going to get a goddamn BUDGET?
372. “When are we going to get a goddamn BUDGET?”
Now if TSE had said something like that, I’d have diagnosed severe sexual frustration.
tim, stop shuffling the shadow cabinet and give us a goddamn BUDGET.
David Roe I think when the budget is execising Darling and Brown who are on round 15 of the fight by now.
I am sure as I can be that Brown wants to avoid a real budget so for now I am still on 8th April election with a splash and dash statement but no budget.Doctor’s mandate and all that. Although has Brown got the guts?
If they try a real budget watch the waste matter hit the whirly thingy.
332.David, this is a non partisan comment. But I do believe that the MSM have a lot to answer for over the last few years. They can and are disingenuous about some news coverage, they don’t always do their job properly. One of the worst reports I ever saw with regard Iraq was on Newsnight, it was anything but balanced. Where were the MSM when the Para’s were reduced to sending their own mobile phone footage from Afghanistan in 2006? We didn’t have a clue just how bad the fighting was until they did that.
The over reaction to some stories about terror alerts. The way that they can woo and then turn on people during a story. The Madeline McCann saga was one of the worst, it became a battle between the British and the Portugese media. Sorry, but sometimes in politics as well, good journalism appears extinct and has been replaced by sensationalism and hello style reporting. Our political lobby are too close to their political foes and friends at the cost of balance, and sometimes it lets a fed story beat the wider picture.
If the role of Parliament has suffered under this government, so has the role of the MSM as great big press Offices of various government departments sprang up to manage and release information.
We the taxpayer are now paying royally for government propaganda, and those that should be doing the job have got far too used it. And it ain’t going to be any better under the Tories or anyone else if that is not addressed. I want a boring and competent Conservative government, not a crap one spinning itself as one big steady stream of headlines for the media.
374 - I’d expect an announcement next week.
But Alistair has saved western capitalism and the forces of hell. Allow him a brief rest
and seen off the forces of hell
376 - Do you think we’d have won the Second World War if mobile phone footage had been sent back from Dunkirk? Would you have supported a Times ‘expose’ of how fcked we were in 1940?
I agree with many of the other points you raise but won’t comment on specifics for reasons you will understand.
One point I will make is that the amount the Goverment as a whole spends on media management is probably more than the budget of most media companies.
Which is ludicrous.
Serious question. One for the constitutional experts.
Who decides the date of the budget?
Chancellor? PM? Cabinet? Chancellor after courtesy clearance with PM?
334.Me, I think we are going to get reports like this every weekend until Brown actually bothers to call the GE. Last week it was noises that the Beeb was on high alert, and next week it will be another story. But still no word of a date for the budget that Darling has been promising. And Labour will use the GE date everytime they want to divert attention from anything. Brown is in front of Chilcott tomorrow.
From the Scotsman -
“The SNP has become the latest party to question the role of the BBC and its continued position as the national state broadcaster as part of the fallout over the exclusion of Nationalists in the general election leaders’ debates.
Along with Plaid Cymru in Wales, the party has announced that it is to review is entire broadcasting policy, including whether Welsh and Scots should have to pay the licence fee.
The Nationalist decision, confirmed at a meeting of the two parties’ parliamentary groups yesterday, has come because of fury over the “arrogant and high-handed” way the corporation’s “London chiefs” have dealt with the leaders’ debate issue.
The Scotsman understands that the way the Nationalists have been treated by the BBC has left SNP and Plaid politicians “incandescent with anger.”
They had received no warning when the details were announced on Tuesday by the broadcasters about how the series of debates would be conducted, and the parties were forced to make holding statements.
The SNP has still not ruled out a legal challenge in the High Court in Scotland to block the broadcasts north of the Border on grounds of proportionality.
So far, the BBC, unlike Sky and ITN, has refused to meet the Nationalists over their exclusion from the leaders debates.
The SNP and Plaid want to discuss how they can receive a balance of 90 minutes lost to them from the leaders’ debates.”
http://news.scotsman.com/news/SNP-may-demand-end-to.6126386.jp
372. I would go for the wednesday following return from Easter recess, like last year.
But that would mean that a May 6th election would be out of the frame.
There’s no doubt that David Cameron’s handling of the Ashcroft affair has been so abysmal that it seriously calls into question his fitness to be prime minister, and I say this as someone who was probably going to vote for his party on May 6th.
If Brown is still in Downing Street on the evening of May 7th, Ashcroft will certainly be one of the main reasons.
379.David, totally understand. Not having a pop at you personally by the way, or your bosses. Just having a whinge at the MSM in general.
I’m off to bed, but one last thought.
Tomorrow Brown goes before the Chilcot Inquiry, wisely so, avoiding before an election it would have played very badly.
Who would have predicted that Cameron would be spending the week avoiding the media?
380. Seth, I don’t think the constitutional niceties matter much these days. Gordon Brown decides the date of the budget!
384 Andy JS
What are your specific causes of complaint? Where do you think Cameron has mishandled the Ashcroft affair.
I am not saying he hasn’t mishandled it. Just that I don’t see it as a vote changer and would like to understand why others do.
Andy JS March 5th, 2010 at 1:04 am
Another victim of the feeding frenzy?
384. I disagree - it is more that it is a litany of errors now that the pressure is on. Cameron is floundering, seemingly unable to put together a coherent message.
Personally, I don’t warm to him at all - I see an arrogance in him that really bothers me - but I think I am in a minority in thinking that (at the moment). But what has happened recently is that people have begun to doubt him as someone who knows where he is going or what he wants to do as a Prime Minister.
I have said this before and I will repeat it again. The concentration on branding rather than developing a coherent plan in the early years of his leadership was a mistake.
346.tim, you miss the bigger picture, Clarke, Hague, even John Major are now back in the political arena these days. None of them have to bother, but they do because they are hungry again to boot a failing Labour government out of power. If twice disgraced Mandelson can come back and slither through our TV studio’s as Prescott does angry man, both waving around some hysterical accusations. I think that Hague can keep behaving in a much more statesman like manner as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Miliband survives being a dithering coward caught holding banana’s and offending Foreign diplomats and government Officials all the time.
If you believe these polls, and I admit I am agnostic, then he has handled it well ending the week four more points ahead than the end of last week. A lead tripled. I would like it bigger but after a month of Tory bashing media and the last week of Ashcroft Hysteria, that is not bad.
Not everything has to be noise and fury to be effective, there are times to simply ride things out. Although we have got used to the flash bang stuff with the nulabour machine.
388. You’re right Seth, it is not a vote changer.
However, what it HAS done is that it has nullified any ground that Caneron may have made with his weekend speech and completely snuffed out any ongoing narrative and further progress leading on from that.
I would imagine that without Ashcroft, the plan was for Cameron’s speech to have given them a 2-3point boost and that the themes in his speech would have been followed up om, for most of the week.
Instead of which, Labour have done a “tim” and diverted the conversation away from Cameron’s relaunch.
Jusr looking at papers after coming back from a p*ker game and what do I see
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/7371543/Army-denied-vital-equipment-in-Iraq-and-Afghanistan-claims-former-SAS-head.html
“British troops were deprived of the right equipment to fight wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and were still being hampered by a lack of resources, the former head of special forces has claimed.”
Gordo at Chilcot in the morning and Hapless Harriets claims at PMQ’s this week
Oh dear
390. This is why the debates will be a big bonus for cameron. As we saw with his speech on saturday he is able to draw everything together in a way which appears sensible and coherent. And lets remember, we will know exactly what the parties manifestos are by the debates. Indeed these debates may well end up saving cameron!
387 James Kelly
In a functional government, yes, because there would be no need to fall back on correct procedure.
But there have been dysfunctional governments where the PM and Chancellor cannot agree on a budget. In 1931 Ramsay MacDonald and Phillip Snowden couldn’t agree on a budget and this led to the formation of a National Government and the subsequent eviction of MacDonald from the Labour party and notorious GE later in the year.
Didn’t Rawnsley reveal Brown had a phobia of being compared to Snowden?
The Ashcroft story represents one of the most self-defeating Labour smears yet, and has humiliated the hard-left papers like the Independent and Guardian that took it up on the instructions of Peter Mandelson and Alistair Campbell - two condemned liars and crooks (one on the Iraq war dossier lies, and the other on pressuring Robinson into giving him personal ‘loans’ for a mortgage and then later ’selling’ influence in exchange for money for Labour pet projects - finding of Parliamentary investigations).
It is also an example of the commercial insanity of both newspapers - their readers couldn’t care less. ‘So what’ we can hear them say - ‘Labour sold peerages in the ‘cash for honours scandal’ and Tony Blair was interviewed by the police. 3 Labour MP’s are to stand trial for expenses fraud. Labour flooded the country with millions of migrants as part of a secret plot from 2000 onwards in a massive ‘immigration for votes scandal’. Labour has deliberately destroyed Britain’s education system (handed control to the Communist-leaning teaching unions). And on the list goes…..’
In that context - Ashcroft - ‘who gives a s***’, you can hear the Guardian and Independent readers say. ‘Gordon Brown should be tried and then hanged - his crimes are monumental.’
They say justice is slow but sure.
On a more positive note - journalistic standards are certainly on the rise again. Britain’s media once led the world in terms of maturity, sophistication and depth. Overall we are moving back in that direction. Britain has the best media in the world, and we need to remember that when holding it to account.
For those of us on the blogosphere we do depend on free-thinking paid-for journalism to source many of our facts, ideas and opinions. Let us wish them well.
388 - how many years has Cameron had to sort out this problem? Instead he’s allowed it to come to the surface at a crucial time a few weeks before the election. It’s important because one of the main things the Tories are vulnerable on is the charge that they’re a bunch of arrogant millionaires pretending to be modernisers (which I don’t personally believe) but which Labour knows could be something that might swing things in their favour. The Ashcroft affair is unfortunate because it reinforces that erroneous view of the Tories and diverts attention away from other issues. The fact that someone as high up in the Tory command as William Hague wasn’t aware of the full situation regarding Ashcroft is not encouraging either.
358.Witan, I thought Brown was very poor and hesitant in his media appearance on this issue today. Very robotic and disjointed, much like that terrible run of interviews during the banking crisis.
iainmartinwsj
Tories Hire YouGov to Do New Private Polling http://bit.ly/az6IG4
394 - I want to learn how to play poker one day. At the moment I know nothing at all about it - even whether it should be spelt with a capital letter or not!
361.Kristin, totally agree with you on that. Take the constant stream of polling that tells us that Cameron is doing better among men than women. Rubbish, its the other way around, and I saw that from friends, family and on the doorstep. One theme I keep getting repeated to me at the moment, Cameron is regarded as genuine by females.
393 budgie
I think Cameron had to respond to the threat of ambush. The success of Gordon Prentice’s FOI request meant that Hague’s correspondence would have been in Labour’s hands to go public with.
So tactically, Cameron and Ashcroft had no choice but to go first.
The mistake made was long ago. Not revealing at the time of Ashcroft’s enoblement that the Cabinet Office had agreed to him being recommended for a peerage on the basis of a changed commitment. Had the Tories under Hague been upfront about it at the time then the head of steam would never have built up. Perhaps the Cabinet Office’s undertaking negotiated by Arbuthnot was on condition of non-disclosure?
Nytol
Has SallyC gone to bed? Big news for us Tory girls, Tom Bradby now has a blog. And quite a tasty picture of the posh floppy haired one!!
Tom Bradby - We corner Mandelson…
400 Kristin
I wonder what weightings will be used.
I shall keep silent. Every day I fear I am morphing into John Galt.
400.Kristin, that will cause a laugh a minute at CCHQ,
Anyhoos, time for Zzzzz, nite all.
404. Oh what a surprise, it doesn’t allow comments!
402 Agree with all that Seth, my point was that the Ashcroft affair has not switched any voters, but it probably HAS cost the Conservatives a 2-3 point advance they could have reasonably been expected to make following Cameron’s weekend speech.
405/406 - I fear a yougov overload, not that we will get to see their findings.. are there any other pollsters out there ?
To me, the whole Ashcroft thing is starting to feel a bit circular: the leadership should have known about Ashcroft’s tax status because it was important, yet the only important thing about Ashcroft’s tax status now seems to be that the leadership didn’t know about it.
379.On the mobile phone footage by the para’s. This wasn’t the 2nd world war or 1940, this was 2006 in a digital age, and the MOD were spinning like mad and getting away with it due to a compliant MSM who accepted what they were told and didn’t want to bother sending anyone out to cover Afghanistan after Iraq, especially when John Reid told them it was a peace keeping force doing a bit of reconstruction work and dealing with the poppy fields. Indeed, he told the media that he hoped that not a shot would be fired in anger. The media were well and truly caught with their draws down on this occasion, and that means in cannot be compared to the big war.
398, 402. BORING.
Is this a tactic to help us fall asleep. If so it’s working.
‘I think he should have done his paperwork sooner.’
‘Yes, doing the paperwork is vital for efficient administration’
‘I agree. Even though all his donations have been found to be legal, and he has also donated to a party not in power, so largely got nothing for his donations, it’s still vital that he does all that paperwork, and also that he announces in meticulous detail the minutai of every clause of every contract, blah, blah, blah.’
Some people will post any old b******* to pass the time!
Topic sleep hypnotic. I’m falling asleeeeeeeeeeepppppppppppppppppppp.
If today’s marginals poll is right, it would mean the Tories would be able to win all the seats they need from Labour for an overall majority.
That means the Tories would need to win about 20-25 seats from the LDs to hit the winning post.
If you assume the top 10 are pretty certain to go to the Tories, numbers 11-25 include the following:
13: Cornwall North
17: Truro & Falmouth
21: Camborne & Redruth
24: Cornwall SE
25: St Austell & Newquay
Maybe it’s time for Cameron and Pickles to set up a special HQ in Cornwall. The election could be decided there.
Peter Kellner’s view on latest yougov
By PETER KELLNER, PRESIDENT OF YOUGOV
BULLYGATE didn’t hurt Labour - and the row over Lord Ashcroft’s non-dom status hasn’t hurt the Tories so far.
Will the PM’s appearance today at the Iraq inquiry make a difference?
Only one in four thinks he did all he could as Chancellor to fund troops.
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2879261/Suns-daily-poll-March-5.html#ixzz0hGKkTTgP
That one in four doesn’t sound good.
408 budgie
Yes but Labour and the media are being very successful at spoiling the Conservative’s pre-campaign. I expect too this phoney war to continue until the budget.
I think when we look back on this election we will conclude that an opposition party with a 17 point lead enters the battle with a handicap.
Perhaps CCHQ and friends realised that too.
386.”Who would have predicted that Cameron would be spending the week avoiding the media?”
Missed this comment earlier. And I think that tim missed Cameron coming out and immediately responding to the news of Lord Ashcroft’s tax status going public on Monday. I suspect that its that transference problem again, Brown usually dithers for about a week and then faces the media, and now tim wants to try and portray Cameron in the same light.
Polls - boring.
Opinion Polls - oxymoron.
415. Seth.
“I think when we look back on this election we will conclude that an opposition party with a 17 point lead enters the battle with a handicap.”
Careful, you will wake Rod Crosby up!
398 Andy JS
I shall talk in whispers as I do not want to wake Will L.
Frankly I don’t believe that either Cameron or Hague have only just discovered that Ashcroft has been a non-dom for 10 years. Even if I give them the benefit of doubt, then they are culpable for not realising the risk of a ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ tactic.
All leaders and politicians make mistakes. In this case a briefcase full of £10 million in crisp new notes blinded Hague and possibly Cameron to the political risk, which is of course the exposure to attack that you identify in your post. Labour have now ruthlessly and single mindedly attacked their exposed flank.
But we can all be geniuses with hindsight. Gordon Prentice’s FOI request threatened the conspiracy of silence and risked the transfer of control to Labour. A pre-emptive strike became necessary and Ashcroft provided it with his announcement on Monday. It didn’t defuse the bomb but it has limited the damage caused. The whole issue will have been forgotten about by next week and even this week Labour’s victory has been nearly neutralised by mutually assured destruction of hypocrisy and moral equivalence.
Cameron has been right to limit his comments on the issue and to lie low this week. He also took the lead earlier by his early stand on non-dom membership of the legislature. He didn’t score a boundary but he did prevent the difficult ball from taking a wicket. He will face worse when he becomes PM.
419 - thanks, I didn’t expect such a detailed reply. We’ll see how it plays out.
Interesting article from a couple of days ago:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article7045914.ece
418. I never sleep…
421. LOL
Question for you Rod.
Is your swingback theory based on a May 6th election, or is your final forecast based on the election whenever it happens?
Just wondered if delaying the election until June would continue the swing to a point where the two Parties end up neck and neck.
Link to Michael Gove’s 2000 Times article ridiculing Lord Ashcroft:
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2010/03/michael-gove-times-column-ashcroft-is-comedian-who-puts-tories-entire-electoral-strategy-at-risk/
422. Interesting point. I think we have determined that the PM’s right to choose the date of the election enables the PM to go to the country just at the point where the swingback forecast converges with reality…
Btw, would you like a jellybaby?
424.
No thanks, I’m not a Conservative, I don’t eat babies.
Come to that, I don’t know how I would describe my political persuasion at the moment.
I want Brown out, with a passion. I don’t have any confidence in a Conservative Party which sidelines it’s most valuable assetts and I feel betrayed by the LabDems, who would traditionally get my vote, over their support for Labour with regard to the Lisbon Treaty and AV.
Interesting article in the Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7050387.ece
Of particular relevance:
“Tory strategists say that they are concentrating on about 100,000 of Britain’s 45 million electorate. Lord Ashcroft has told friends that he no longer looks at national polls because he thinks that they are irrelevant.”
Is this really the Tory ’strategy’?
So 99.78% of voters don’t matter. That should do wonders in terms of boosting turnout.
428 - Well that has always been the problem with our electoral system. I’ve always defended FPTP in the past but the decision between a Lib Dem and Dawn Butler has sorely tested my principles
426. “I don’t know how I would describe my political persuasion at the moment.”
Neither do I. Perhaps it’s contagious. There is a malaise infecting politics at the moment the like of which I’ve never seen, and I think it’s terminal.
However, I must admit Mandelson is a genius. After engineering the greatest con-trick evermore in 1997, and compelling the Tories to follow suit in a desperate attempt to ape it with the “heir to Blair”, he now turns the tables on them with the “paint me warts’n'all” leader, Gordon Brown.
Sheer, bloody genius.
I’ve never voted Labour in my life, but this time I’m sorely tempted.
431 - none of the parties seem particularly attractive these days. If I lived in Brighton Pavilion I might vote for Caroline Lucas despite not supporting most Green policies.
In comparison to today’s politicians, Michael Foot seems like a hero. I even watched a documentary on him tonight.
431 - Ah the days of Wizard of Oz politics. If you only had a heart you voted Labour and if you only had a brain you voted Conservative.
And if you had neither you went back to your constituencies to prepare for government.
431. “Politics” is now just another meaningless career in the bloated public sector.
People like Foot (and Thatcher) went into politics because, however misguided you may view them, they sincerely did want to change the world…
433 - And the worst thing about it is that it has become increasinly pathetic as people have begun to move straight from university politics to Westminster without stopping to grow up.
434. e.g.
Burger? My ARSE!
Tristram Hunt apparently failed to get on the short-list for the Leyton seat (vacated by Harry Cohen) after exerting outside pressure, which he claimed he had been selected for, and is now desperately looking for another ’safe’ seat.
I was wondering where I had heard his name before. He is a history lecturer at a London university. Awful if this represents the next generation of Labour.
Talking of Labour aristocracies, what is happening with Benn’s grand daughter?
431,
Foot was another phony, pontificating leftist with his own share of flip-flops. Past politicians only look good in comparison with leaders we have today. The insincere hagiography is annoying.
Either some of you guys have serious amounts of money on a Tory win, or you are just blinkered by ideology - the Tories aren’t doing well, because nobody actually likes them. You can spend all the time you like criticising a polling firm that was spot on in recent elections, but it’s a waste of time.
441 - go back to your Sun crossword.