Is this how the capital will look on May 7th?
March 3rd, 2010
Reproduced from the London Evening Standard
CON 39% (32)
LAB 35% (39)
LD 17%(22)
YouGov finds a bigger Tory swing in London
A new YouGov poll for tonight’s London Evening Standard suggests that the Tories might be on target to make a dozen gains in the capital at the election. The shares are above with the changes since the 2005 general election.
The swing of 5.5% is higher than that we’ve seen in national YouGov polls taken over the past week and suggests that the blues are doing a bit better here than elsewhere in the country.
What we haven’t got, and this might have been much more useful, is a breakdown of what’s happening in the key marginals.
Although this poll looks good in the current political context the swing is on nothing like the scale seen in the last YouGov poll of London back in April 2009. Then, in the immediate post-expenses and post-MacBride atmosphere the shares were 46-33-16.
So the Tories have slipped back a fair amount since then but Labour has only picked up 2 points.
It seems most of the Tory losses have gone to others - which I assume is UKIP and the BNP.
So not a bad poll for Cameron’s party but not a good one either.
YouGov polled 1,092 Londoners between 21 February and 1 March.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
ist?
Lewisham-East == ‘Ave-it’.
Let’s hope so.
Crikey - I read that as a 55% swing for a second
As someone mentioned earlier, a very long polling period - 9 days?
London surely must be a tough one to call due to the fluidity of its population.
5 that was me!
5 Sunil
They have formed a sufficiently large sample out of the daily poll respondents. Here is UK polling report on the methodology
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2484
So not a bad poll for Cameron’s party but not a good one either
It is a good poll for the blue team if it’s 12 gains in London. A slightly contradictory post there Mike.
I don’t live in London,but would be interested to know whether Boris’s mayoralty is viewed as a positive or a negative going into the general election.
What swingback is it Mike 4.5%?
Tooting, Tooting, Get your money on Labour in Tooting!
#1
Trust a Jockanese hoon to large it over Lun’dun. When is the feckin’ football on?
Off-topic:
Darn me’z local and missed da’ fun. Armed-response units innit.
Local Asain shop-keeper raided by da’ yuf. Hope Nick Palmer is proud.
What would the lead have been before You Gov introduced shy labour one wonders? Is it still possible to compare old You Gov polls with current ones?
Great poll for the tories. The previous YouGov poll had the 3 main parties winning 97% of the vote, unlikely I would suggest.
The earlier dataset - 46/33/18 - adds up to 97%. This seems very high post-expenses scandal, as it leaves only 3% for ‘others’. Is it correct?
Thew new set adds up to 91%, which seems credible.
15.Good point John.
But this is ULS = Uniform London Swing
11 Already done, tim!
How does this compare to the mayoral vote?
There will be less red on this map the day after the general election voting takes place.
For SSI:
In other Texas primary results, a Lyndon LaRouche Democrat has won the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican House member Pete Olson. Politico has this quote about the Democratic candidate:
“Kesha ran an aggressive campaign calling for the impeachment of Obama, and the implementation of the LaRouche Plan for economic recovery. This undeniable landslide victory is a referendum for the immediate ouster of President Obama.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0310/A_Larouche_Dem_wins_Texas_primary.html?showall
It isn’t yet known whether Obama will campaign in this district during the campaign and, if so, whether he’ll be campaigning for the Democrat or the Republican.
Polls nationally were pretty turbulent over the period so it’s a bit hard to cpmare, but the swing of 5.5% is equivalent to an 8% lead, not very different to the average nationally in the first part of the period. Looks slightly higher but within MOE.
FPT: 275/276: thanks! The 1983 campaign was a total shambles locally. I only had one member who was willing to be my agent, and he turned out to be a raving Trot who forged part of my election address to “spice it up a bit”. Since we couldn’t afford to reprint, we sent it out anyway (he hadn’t put in anything really outrageous), whereupon he kept drawing up grandiose campaign plans, asking for a ’street agent’ to be appointed in every road to coordinate local activity and claiming we were ’sure to win’. We rapidly realised that the only thing to do was ignore him and just do a frenetic canvass all day every day to try to shore up the vote. I was pleasantly surprised to save the deposit (the threshold was then 12.5%), despite as we now know Richard Nabavi’s inexplicable failure to support me.
The main long-term effect was unfortunately to spoil the political career of Stephen Benn, then a promising left-wing member of the GLC and then as now a really nice guy. I won by an electricity failure. We were the main contenders and the selectorate then just the General Committee was split 13-13 as we went into the deciding ballot. As my speech reached its finale, all the lights went out. I had only a minute left so I continued to harangue the meeting through the pitch darkness, to increasing hilarity until eventually the chair halted play and gave me a minute more when the lights came back on. I won by 14-12, and the delegate who switched later told me he liked my ’sang-froid in the face of adversity’ and thought prophetically that ‘it might come in handy’ in the election that year. Stephen switched to become Parliamentary adviser to the British Society of Chemistry, where he continues to do a great job, but he’d have made a good MP so I still feel a bit guilty.
this BBC headline made me laugh.”Commons Leader Harriet Harman has accused shadow foreign secretary William Hague of having not a “shred of credibility” over Lord Ashcroft’s tax affairs.”
No mention of Harman’s shocking, shouty performance proving once more that she is unfit to run a bath.
The Lib Dems could do with being a bit more active. They don’t want to start an election campaign from 16/17 really. I fully expect them to get a campaign jump but 5 points will be going some when Huhne is the soundbite man.
Southam Observer:
First pref votes:
42 C
36 L
10 LD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
THEY AIN’T MAKIN’ JEWS LIKE JESUS ANYMORE
Kinky Friedman
Well a redneck in a bowling shirt was guzzlin’ Lone Star beer
Talking religion and politics for all the world to hear
They oughta send you back to Russia boy or New York City one
You just want to doodle a Christian girl and you killed God’s only son
I said, has it occurred to you, you turd, that that’s not very nice?
We Jews believe it was Santa Claus that killed Jesus Christ
You know you don’t look Jewish, he said, as near as I could figger
I had you pegged for a slightly anemic, well-dressed country n[word]
No they ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore
They don’t turn the other cheek the way they done before
He started in to shoutin’ and spittin’ on the floor
Lord they ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore
He says I ain’t a racist but Aristotle Onassis is one Greek we don’t need
And them n[word]s, Jews and Sigma Nus all they ever do is breed.
And wops and micks and slopes and spics and spooks are on my list
And one little hebe from the heart of Texas is there anyone I missed?
Well, I hit him with everything I had right square between the eyes
I says, I’m gonna gitcha, you son of a bitch ya, for spoutin’ that pack of lies
If there’s one thing I can’t abide, it’s an ethnocentric racist
Now you take back that thing you said about Aristotle Onassis!
No they ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore
We don’t turn the other cheek the way we done before
You could hear that honky holler as he hit that hardwood floor
Lord they sure ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore
No they ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore
They ain’t makin’ carpenters who know what nails are for
Well the whole damn place was singin’ as I strolled right out the door
Lord they ain’t makin’ Jews like Jesus anymore!
From Wiki 2008 article:
“Vote figures from two ballot boxes from Merton and Wandsworth were not transmitted properly to City Hall and were therefore not included in the vote totals. The number of missing votes was 746.”
The Beeb are spinning for MandyPandy but even they can’t hide what was said:
Mr Hague, standing in for Tory leader David Cameron in the Commons, accused Labour of being in a “desperate panic”.
He also said: “If she wants to discuss the House of Lords, I’m sure she will want to explain the position of Lord Paul, who was made a privy counsellor after he bought 6,000 copies of the prime minister’s book on courage.
“Never has so much been given for so few people to read so many words in vain.
“She might also want explain why Labour took half a million pounds from a hedge fund manager called Mr Bollinger. Champagne socialism is alive and well in the Labour Party, obviously.”
Attacking Labour’s record, he said: “People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.”
I love the Churchillian riff.
When will Brown make a statement on Paul and his relationship with this asset stripper?
London Mayoral vote 1st preference:
Boris: 42%
Ken: 36%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_election,_2008
London Assembly FPTP:
Con: 37%
Lab: 28%
LD: 14%
London assembly AMS:
Con: 34%
Lab: 27%
LD: 11%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Assembly_election,_2008
David Roe how can the LibDems be more active without being in the spotlight for their fraudulent donor - what surprise called Brown - and their non-dom sponsors?
About time Corbyman made a statement on his donors, don’t you think?
Hague only found out about Ashcroft tax deal a few months ago
After the debate Hague left last and by the backdoor to avoid reporters gathered outside.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/03/william-hague-lord-ashcroft
North side, east side
Little Willy, Willy wears the crown, he’s the king around town
Dancing, glancing
Willy drives them silly with his star shoe shimmy shuffle down
Does the ES article mention anything about lab/Lib Dem contests? Brent Central? Bermondsey? Islington S? Hampstead?
Labour will be lucky to get a seat in the south west.
32.Talking of Bermondsey, whatever happened to Simon Hughes, once upon a time he was the LibDem talking and talking and talking head. Not seen him for yonks.
Wiki also has a map showing London boroughs by the colour of how they voted:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:London2008mayorresults.svg
Apologies for not answering any questions on the other thread - I’ve only just got home (I did post a few comments on the morning thread during my lunch break).
Just helping with the little ones and dinner, then will be back.
For our resident Tory Boys and Girls:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London_Council_election,_1977
31. Boring.
31 tim, judging from the number of posts you make about him, it would appear you have a crush on William Hague. And now you’re writing sonnets for him. How sweet.
The next time you fly into JFK airport, it might be this adorable little tyke who will be giving out the landing instructions to your pilot from the control tower:
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local-beat/CHILDS-PLAY-AT-JFK-86174177.html
38 Ashcroft hasn’t had single mention on R5 so far over two hours into Drive.
Oh and this one:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_London_Council_election,_1967
12 Fluffy Thoughts
As a matter of interest, I wonder what proportion of the London population is English.
Is Peter Kellner “shy Labour”?
Vince Cable could not have made clearer at PMQs today that the Lib Dems have now positioned themselves as cheerleaders for Labour.
AC, 36 “Just helping with the little ones”
so is this your coy way of telling us you’re a Lib Dem?
PS - your last post was excellent, as per usual!
41. People arne’t interested, they see all donations to parties as being corrupt, all Labour and the lib dems are doing is frothing at the mouth over something that does neither of them any good and highlights an area the public dislike.
31 - Sounds like Hague is dobbing in Ashcroft, but has he shot himself in the foot too?
Very Funny.
Well, it’s nice to have a bit of (quite) good polling news. I think one would expect the Conservatives to outperform in London, given their underperformance in Scotland, and other areas that are solidly committed to Labour. As I said the other night, perceptions of Cameron and Brown alter markedly the further from the Capital that one travels.
WRT Michael Foot, I think it would have been disastrous had he won in 1983, but he was a most distinguished politician, and, at heart, a patriot and man of honour. Had he never become Labour leader, he would now be considered to have had a most impressive political career.
41 - because the very mention of him will blow the entire telephone network of the BBC with the fuming general public.
Maybe.
32 - Since this appears to be done on calculating a uniform swing from a London-wide reconstituted poll, we can presumably do this for ourselves (not that it would be terribly useful).
On these figures, I would expect Labour to hold Poplar & Bow. I’m less convinced that tim and Richard Nabavi that they would hold Tooting on these figures, though the odds may make it worthwhile. I’m starting to think that it may be worth backing Labour in Islington South & Finsbury.
44.I did ask him if he was still Labour through & through, but alas sai he could answer no more questions….and he left.
48. that’s the second time you’ve said Hague is dobbing in Ashcroft, neither time have you actually said what he put.
48. that’s the second time you’ve said Hague is dobbing in Ashcroft, neither time have you actually put what he said.
43 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_London
51 - erratum, read Poplar & Limehouse for Poplar & Bow.
FPT 342 Roger
Cameron’s books & pamphlets
I believe Cameron went straight to DVD.
He is a modern media man.
32 - The poll isn’t seat-specific and just applies UNS to calculate changes. Clearly, it involves practically no swing as between Labour and Lib Dem so no Labour/Lib Dem seat changes (other than Brent, which is abolished).
In practice, I strongly doubt this is true on the ground and also suspect the Tories will pick up more from Labour due to targeting but we’ll see.
Well if you swap Richmond for Tooting it’s exactly the same as the current prediction from Electoral Calculus. I’ve worked on the assumption that if the Conservatives are to be returned to Government they need to become the leading party in London and the West Midlands. On this showing that is only the case in London if Respect win Bethnal Green. This would give a breakdown of seats of : Con 33 Lab 32 LD 6 Oth 1.
So IMO this is barely good enough….
48. Were you born thick or did you have to take an evening class?
He didn’t ‘dob’ him in as you put it. It clarified what we already knew - that Ashcroft hadn’t revealed his status to anybody.
Nobody, but nobody, in the mainstream cares about this. I understand why you and your ilk are doing this, but you’re starting to look desperate. Glass houses and all that….
57 - “I believe Cameron went straight to DVD.”
Like those films that the studios deem to poor to inflict on cinema-goers?
Re 59 Electoral Calculus are only showing Libdems taking Islington from Labour So it would be Con 33 Lab 31 LD 7 Oth 1. So still barely good enough….
61: Brown is more Beta-max
50 & 41 BBC is too busy today, either gazing at it’s own navel and contemplating the true horror of the cuts that Mark Thompson has suggested, or going into National Mourning Mode after the death of Foot.
You won’t get any sense out of them the day Thatcher dies either, as they’ll be too busy guzzling champagne at the licence payers expense.
#43, by oldnat March 3rd, 2010 at 6:14 pm
12 Fluffy Thoughts
As a matter of interest, I wonder what proportion of the London population is English.
Simples,
Those born, by thought, or by affinity are English. English is a civic not genetic paradigm. Just as the SNP believe the Scottish are. [Just ask malcolmG, Stuart Dickson and Cllr. Peter Cairns.]
Now take your sedative and relax. Switch to the Disney-Channel and submerse yourself in Scottish history….
[Reposted.]
21, S&S - thanks (?) for that bulletin!
Note that you’ve spared the feelings of the many Brit brokers, moneylenders, etc, etc on this site, by NOT reporting the new nominee’s views on Dear Old Blighty:
“The victory in the 22nd Congressional District yesterday by LaRouche Democrat Kesha Rogers sent an unmistakable message to the White House, and its British imperial controllers: Your days are numbered.”
“There are forces, centered in the City of London, which are moving, with determination, to destroy our Constitutional republic. It is the banking and financial interest of the City of London, and their allies on Wall Street, which are responsible for the global financial collapse…”
Saddest note: Ms Rodgers is running in the Houston suburban seat that not-so-long ago was held (in an epic struggle) by Nick Lampson.
58 - no scientific proof to back it up, but can’t help feeling there will be some quite big swings in London, in places you may not expect.
Somebody mentioned Tooting above - it’s not known locally as the Islamic Republic for nothing, although there are also plenty of, ahem, urban professionals moving into the area too.
FWIW it will stay Labour, but only just.
Don’t forget the influence of one Mr B Johnson who is popular too.
64 They must be relieved to find an excuse to avoid mentioning Hattie today.
Just watched it again - a 747 of a plane crash - shouty, answers have nothing to do with the question, crowbarred in ref to Ashcroft again and again - it was pitiful and very funny, not often we get treated to both in 30mins
Michael Crick reckons Miliboy Junior is next Lab leader
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2010/03/taking_a_punt_on_ed_miliband_a.html
63 - “Brown is more Beta-max”
Basically a better product but doomed to lose due to poor marketing?
45.
Isn’t it good for the Tories to have the LD’s align themsleves with Labour pre GE?
If they aligned themselves with the Tories, it may give unhappy Tories somewhere else to go..
Going with labour would mean the those who are disaffected with Labour, but would never vote Tory, now have somewhere else to go - reducing the Lab. vote..
Lefties will be pleased that the working class Shaun Bailey is going to beat the Etonian Andrew Slaughter in Hammersmith.
If they have any principles that is.
I do wonder if the European Parliament is trying to help UKIP.
They fined Farage for his outburst against the unelected ‘president of Europe’ and that is silly. Say it was unparliamentary language but a ‘fine’?
It just makes Farage a martyr for a bit of knockabout parliamentary stuff. Not very tasteful but imagine Denis Skinner in the European Parliament. He would soon be skint.
Yet if you read their proceedings it is fine to bash those who do not think a federal Europe is a good idea in the most extreme terms.
It does remind me of Palpatine and the Senate in Star Wars. And that is really scary.
Not me, the situation. I am just as Star Wars/Trekkie freak.
Michael Foot,
Was he nominated for the “Best Supporting Actor” in ‘Pink Floyd: The Wall’? If not, nothing lost….
Talking of marginal seats in London, Boris is doing a People’s Question Time tonight in Harrow from 7 onwards.
They tend not to go too well for him - audience usually full of political opponents, he has a poor grasp of detail, and many of his policies are pretty indefensible - but he always entertains.
Might be worth watching if, like me, you have nothing better to do.
The C’Ashcroft affair (ok, after this I’ll stop taking the micky with his lordship’s moniker!) is no interest to the mainstream?
Granted, it’s not the burning question of our age. BUT it does dovetail nicely with the Tory exposure (moat dredging, etc, etc) in the parliamentary feeding frenzie.
It also shows a lack of eptitude by Tory HQ 2010 which is in stark contrast to Millbank 1997
Sorry, link for Boris Question Time
http://www.london.gov.uk//get-involved/public-meetings/peoples-question-time/harrow-march-2010
tim-o-thicket has Brown made that statement on the central issue of rapacious Lord Paul yet?
56 - Ealing North is your banker.
Hampstead and Kilburn yer VFM
67 - Plato, you’re missing the story entirely, its not Hattie it’s Hagues interview.
Doesn’t London tend to be more swing-y (in more ways than one!) than the UK (or England) as a whole? Rootless comsmopolitanism and all that?
65- Vote Kesha Rogers to hold those megalomaniacal London moneychangers to account!
It is rather good that seeing all these Labour dinosaurs on the news night. A warning from history indeed.
Come on tim, stop slobbering over the Hague poster you have stuck up over your bed and answer the question about Brown hiding from questions on Lord Paul.
Do keep up with the issue of the day.
75 No it really doesn’t - the expenses scandal hit everyone and his expenses were zero, unlike Labour’s Lord Paul who clocked c £400k and admitted he claimed for a place he’d never slept in FFS.
It’s about a strange creature called nom-dom donators who happen to also apply to all parties - it’s a really boring micro-issue story about semantics. If this is the killer issue for Labour, they are barking in the dark.
78. And your not answering any questions at all, quite disturbing really, do you have blindness to any comment that dissagrees with you?
69 - Or too expensive, limited range and an inability to be popular enough in sufficient homes?
I see the debates are not ideally placed for labour. The first one in the north will have bnp supporters outside. The next south west full of tory and lib supporters outside. Then the midlands where everyone will be protesting against rbs funding a US take over of cadburys
75. “The C’Ashcroft affair (ok, after this I’ll stop taking the micky with his lordship’s moniker!) is no interest to the mainstream?”
Not if the BBC are to be believed. No political story is in the top 10.
This is the second most read story at the moment:
Mutya Buena applies to own Sugababes name
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/arts_and_culture/8548338.stm
78 Clearly R5 aren’t using your News Sense antennae
Perhaps you ought to offer your expertise to their editorial team?
I don’t think this Hague thing is a blind alley. The Guardian are like a dog with a bone and Hague is the bone.
Someone who enobled Ashcroft and Black and backed Archer for London mayor calling him a man of integrity is a gift for parody. At least on a par with a back-to-front baseball hat.
Will Cameron risk him as shadow foreign secretary through an election campaign? Maybe not.
tim FPT your Guardian chart of the Gini index stopped in 2006. I assume you must have just forgotten to mention that it’s continued to go up (society more unequal) every year of Brown’s premiership.
The interesting thing about that Hague interview that has tim creaming his pants is why is it on The Guardian website before going out on the BBC World Tonight?
A case of an incestuous ‘you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours’ relationship between a partisan newspaper and a supposedly non-partisan broadcaster.
And, of course, Robin Lustig’s line of questioning proceeds on a whole raft of unfounded assumptions (of guilt, that is).
88
Roger are you playing a one two with tim.?
88. Very astute roger, just before GE campaign he’ll dump the man he’s had deputising for him at PMQ’s and has been on telly veyr regularly because of a sotry the public don’t care about.
Sean Fear (somewhere above) - Strong argument can be made (and I’m making now in my feeble way) that Michael Foot sacrificed his reputation (albeit not totally) by taking up the Labour leadership?
A man of his intellect and experience must have known (even if he wasn’t fully aware of the full extent) that a) he wasn’t natural PM material; b) he wasn’t the electoral gold standard; and c) that Labour was in for years wandering in the wilderness.
Yet he did what he percieved to be his duty. Old school indeed.
Also think it can be argued that Labour stopped bottoming-out under his leadership. Which is something that William Hague cannot claim.
Speaking of the latter, Americans (those that know he exists at all) have always had a hard time understanding why he’s been such a political loser (so far, though that may change).
For example, the whole Brit flap about his accent? He sounds pretty good to us.
As for his judgement, that is indeed suspect. EXCEPT of course his brilliant decision to enroll in intensive Welsh-language immersion tutorial with Ffion! IF he only makes one brilliant choice, that was the one!!!
90 And still no one gives a toss - before I got really interested in politics about 4yrs ago, I heard endless Ashcroft stuff and neither understood it or cared about it.
I assume my previous level of awareness is a barometer for the public.
90 The BBC aren’t really doing themselves any favours by cosying up to commercial media organisations. It does make one wonder if they’d be happier entering that realm, and doing without the cash handed over to them from the public purse and the licence fee payer.
88 - Its News International they need to watch, Ashcroft sued the Times remember
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2010/03/times-columnist-ashcroft-gove
79 - Speaking as a rootless cosmopolitan, I would say that inner London is surprisingly unswingy. The suburbs are where all the political action is.
94 - I assume my previous level of awareness is a barometer for the public.
Explains a lot I suppose.
:whistles:
Per Electoral Commission (Radio 5):
56% of 18 to 24 year-olds not registered to vote
31% of ethnic minorities not registered to vote
I would repeat the question made last night re potential effect on polls - ie polls are mis-stated if these people are included in polls.
98 Yup - the average voter neither gets the nuances or cares.
Thank you for confirming my argument
Tim, when you can explain in a single sentence of no more than 15 words why I should care about Lord Ashcroft and not care about any funders of any other party, the story might take wings. Till then, it’s a blind alley.
100.
Good. A least as far as the 18 to 24 year-olds are concerned. The voting age should be raised to 25.
80, S&S - now that Lord Ashcroft has some free time on his hands, perhaps we should get him together with Kesha Rogers? Perhaps he could arrainge a nice visit for her to Treadneedle Street? Or contact the Palace for an briefing on the Windor-Mountbatten meth labs?
105 - I’m having my civil partnership on Threadneedle Street in August. Could Barack Obama hold off on the smart bombs till after then? Ta muchly.
krishgm
Strange that Guardian has BBC clip of Hague on Ashcroft as lead story but it isn’t on BBC News. Is this new slimmed down BBC website?
Plato, do think you have a point, that it’s easy to overestimate impact of things like the Ashcroft flap. Your viewpoint is a corrective. BUT to say there is zero impact or close to it, it going WAY too far.
106 antifrank
What will happen to guests who want to take photographs in the street? Do they get lifted by the police?
When’s the budget then? Surely it needs to be announced soon?
I presume today was the last opportunity for GB to call a march 25th election.
May 6th, or June 3rd?
88: Roger - as the Guardian’s questions were answered by Richard N in about 2 minutes flat, they’re going nowhere with this. They clearly don’t understand the difference between tax domicile and tax residency, which is odd because the Guardian is - as we know - pretty good at using offshore arrangements in minimising its own tax liabilities.
109 - If they do, I hope that they send some of the fit attractive young policemen. That would make the day.
103 - Nobody outside Westminster cares about Ashcroft.
It’s the sheer ineptness of the Tory Party operation that you should care about.
Leaving Hague in charge of scissors is dangerous, let alone this and that is presuming theres no obvious porkies to be dug up.
But Hague knew months ago and they chose monday to release it.
When did the fops know?
106, antifrank - am saddened that your obviously in cahoots with the infernal cabal of international finanzcapitalismus!
So who gives you your orders, is Prince Phillip or Fergie (the Weightwatcher’s one) or perhaps the Queen Mum (via your ouija board)?
108 I understand your POV, however the Ashcroft thing is ancient stuff - if Gordon is known for being sullen and grumpy, Ashcroft’s status is even more so.
Anyone who is exercised by it won’t have voted Tory no matter what, so it has no impact on the result - we can argue the toss about ‘zero’ but its shorthand for nothing-statistically-significant.
109 (further thoughts) - Since half the guests have very strong northern Irish accents, we might inadvertently spark off a major alert.
Interesting poll. It all looks as though the Tories are on course for a small, but workable majority.
96: ‘Ashcroft sued the Times remember…’
Indeed, it was a chilling story - the government and a supposedly independent newspaper in a smear collaboration to destroy the leader of the opposition. Times journalists wrote statements for Labour MPs to make under protection of parliamentary privilege (Ashcroft was an international drug dealer etc.) and the paper then reported these claims in its pages with huge fanfare. We’ve never seen its like in Britain before and I hope we never will again.
93 SSI
A man of his intellect and experience must have known (even if he wasn’t fully aware of the full extent) that he wasn’t natural PM material
The barely concealed irony of Michael Foot’s response to Nick Palmer’s 1983 letter of support/condolence shows that he lacked neither self-awareness nor wit.
Also the story he told about the Queen Mother complimenting him on his Donkey Jacket is being misrepresented by the media to his cost. It showed that he was able to laugh both with and at the establishment.
The 1930s socialists were dealt an unfortunate hand of cards by subsequent events. Michael Foot played those cards in a losing game with dignity and without complaint.
May he rest in Highgate cemetery in peace and good company.
104 - I assume you’d also remove the obligation on 18-24 year olds to pay income tax as the quid pro quo for that?
104. Oi. Sod off.
test
113. What is your nasty little problem with Hague as a person? And I don’t just mean in respect of Ashcroft. Your like a dog with a bone. Is it the same for everybody who is more intelligent, articulate and naturally affable than yourself?
107 - Clearly the BBC have messed up big time leaking the interview to The Guardian, they have really made a massive mistake which they will regret. This is the kind of behavoir from the BBC that the Conservaives have been waiting to exploit, they should have taken the Michael Gove warning seriously.
They have some really awful music cueing in the London People’s Question Time.
Can’t buy this I’m afraid. The yougov polls have shown the Lib Dem vote in London ranging from 14% right up to 24%! There has also been 9-10% variations for Labour and the Tories!
91 GeoffH, since the interview isn’t currently available to licence fee payers on the BBC website, do feel free to phone them up and enquire as to what the Guardian Media Group are doing with a copy of it. I’m bored enough to have done so. Remember to get the id number from the duty log.
Am working my way throgh Andrew Rawnsley’s book. Page 56 has some cracking quotes:
“Why can’t he(GB) behave like a human being?” Geoff Hoon
“Don’t you ever f*ckng speak to me like that again!” Tessa Jowell to Gordon Brown after a row about Olympic funding.
“Paul Boateng,Chief Secretary to the Treasury,once burst into tears…because of the relentless briefing against him by Brown’s acolytes. Alan Milburn’s partner Ruth,a psychiatrist,was heard referring to Brown as ‘a psychopath’.
Mike/Mods, I have a comment, which keeps on disappearing, any chance of it being released?
For some reason it sets of the spam trap, and I’m buggered to know which word it is.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/03/michael-foot-diane-abbott-labour
Just watched PMQs. An absolute and utter disgrace. Bercow completely failed to keep order and the only sensible moment was when Vince Cable didn’t read out the names of the dead servicemen parrot fashion as happens week after week.
FPT 266.”One major difference between David Cameron 2010 and Tony Blair 1997, is the fact that (so far) DC has failed where TB succeeded: in not only disassociating himself and his party from its recent, discredited past in a way that stamped him as a leader with broad appeal, capable of taking on his base without alienating it. Indeed, he inspired it.”
Major difference is the bulk of Labour voters wanted Labour to be more middle of the road than the membership by a ratio of say 2:1 or even 3:1 whereas with Cameron the ratio is more 1:2 or even 1:3.
As far as i’m concerned the single biggest problem the Tories have had over the last 12 years is they lost their reputation for economic competence over the ERM business and that has easily outwieghs everything else *with the people who might vote Tory*.
There was only ever three ways out of that:
1. Time, years and years of it.
2. Get back in by accident somehow and rebuild that reputation.
3. Labour undercutting the ERM memory by messing up the economy even worse.
(2) was always extremely unlikely and they basically had to hold on till (1) or (3) applied.
Their second big problem from the Thatch-Major time (with the people who might vote Tory) was looking too spivvy and in the pockets of big business. Toffs aren’t the biggest Tory problem, spivs are.
Their third problem was the “nasty party” tag and to my mind a lot of the Cameroon stuff is a wrong analysis of that. They’re focused on changing things people who’d never vote Tory dislike about the Tories instead of the things potential Tory voters care about.
For example it’s practically impossible to be too right-wing on crime in this country but it’s extremely easy to *sound* too right-wing on crime as there’s a overlap between things people can agree with and things people can be made to feel guilty about agreeing with.
re 110 not so the deadline for 25th March passed two days ago.
132 Mr Jones
spivs follow the money, which is why labour is currently stuffed full of them.
113 tim
Leaving Hague in charge of scissors is dangerous
Do you fear he might cut us free from the continent?
From a couple of threads ago, Casino Royale wrote
“But haven’t you noticed how David Herdson, Martin Coxall, Socrates, TSE, Sean Fear and myself have all gone, well, a little “quiet” recently over our campaign?
I’d hate to presume but methinks a few of us might not be too happy”
To be honest, I havent been posting much recently, due to me working way too much (and the twins arriving, incidentally, anyone else agree that babies would be perfect if they came with a snooze button)
I still remain an enthusiastic cheerleader for Cameron. I think the two things that convince me he will be a fine Prime Minister
1) His courage and steadiness in Autumn 2007, when the likes of Kinnock and Heffer were predicting the Tory party would be destroyed in the election that never was.
2) His honesty in dealing with the spending cuts. Normally we have a politicians telling us we will be sh1tting rainbows. I maintain this approach will yield him long term benefit (because he has been honest)
Cameron has infuriated me on two things in the past, that still really rankle.
1) The grammar schools policy
2) How he has allowed Labour to spin that the deficit has occurred because of the cred1t crunch.
Other things that annoy me, like his belief in climate change, and not cutting the NHS, i can bear, because I know, he has to appeal to voters who are unlike me, and those policies will win him votes in the marginals.
I have no idea what where we are with the Ashcroft story now, it was novel when it broke but it’s just plain boring now. There is absolutely no way the average member of the electorate has been following it.
Boris has already got them rolling in the aisles - thanks for the link whoever it was. Interesting that he’s been so low profile in the context of the election. He’s an asset for the Tories, even left-leaning friends of mine say they just can’t help liking him.
Boris on sparkling form… well worth watching.
136 marbles - Yes, Boris campaigning in a few key London marginals might be quite advantageous for the Conservatives.
BB3 @ 8PM: Question Time for First Time Voters.
Should be good.
120 & 121.
I admit to being a little facetious but I do think the old threshold of 21 should never have been changed.
The income tax thing is a red herring. Plenty of people, all under 18s with an income over the personal tax allowance, for instance, and there are such individuals, pay it without any concomitant right to vote.
:point-of-order:
Can we please not copy-n-paste posts from previous threads using the FPT moniker? If they were worth reading they will have been read already.
I understand that - under Labour’s dumbing-down of eddykashun - rote-learning is the only way to embed a thought, but please…! Repetitive postings are as edifying as Rusty Brown’s tractor-stats and Farmer ‘Tupac’s negative analysis….
[
Off to cuddle up with me's Serbian princess as we watch the football. England's early warmer to the World Cup; when will Scotland schedule theirs...?
]
135 Yes, and one of the reasons the balance has shifted.
Sorry to go Off Topic, but posting responses from me to questions/comments FPT. Before I start, though, thanks again to everyone for the kind reception. In detail:
2, tim “Andy.
Surely the ant Labour tactical voting over Iraq in 2005 is distorting this, unless you are predicting that none of that will unwind”
There would probably be some distortion, but the magnitude and breadth of Con->Lib tactical voting doesn’t seem to have been that great. On the whole, it seems to have been much as Richard Nabavi says at 8 - a nationwide general swing from Lab->LD. There were a few seats where a genuinely tactical vote seems to have occurred and given the LDs the seat (Cambridge and Withington for example). There could be a retreat from that in those seats, but I think that the famed Lib Dem barnacle effect will come into play. Unlike the Big Two, the credibility of being the MP (so it’s inarguable that they can win “here”, seems to have a real positive effect for them. If so, the broad tactical effect would seem fairly neutral for the Tories (subsumed in the general swing, as a general swing thing originally) and where it’s tactical, unwind would be going head-to-head with the Lib Dem defensive bonus. Whichever way wins out, it’ll only have an effect on the winners majority if Labour get to a potential majority position, and even then, only be two or three seats at best. SthLondon Nick follows up on this at 238 and suggests we need to get some figures from Lab/LD seats to see what’s happening there.
3, Edmund I guess my biggest concern with Andy Cooke’s approach is that it assumes that you’ve got a pendulum moving in one direction at a time, with divergence from UNS going:
pro-Labour -> pro-Labour -> anti-Labour -> guess-what-comes-next…
But I’m wondering if rather than being a pure unwind of 1997, 2010 is going to be a combination of 1997 (pro-Labour) and 2005 (anti-Labour) unwinding. This is particularly obvious now that the polling is getting closer, because Labour’s scores just doesn’t make sense unless they get a bunch of voters they didn’t get in 2005. (Like Mike says, Labour can’t have retained all but 1 voter in 12 or whatever from last time.)
That makes figuring out the dynamics of who’s changing sides a lot trickier. Just based on the swings, it could be that Labour lost the key voters they need to beat UNS in 2005, but Brown’s about to get them back, so he’ll beat UNS this time… In theory it should be possible to work out who Brown is gaining and who he’s losing, and where these people live. But that would require a lot of current polling data and some very complex analysis. It’s not something you could figure out with just a spreadsheet and some common sense.
Good argument, and one worth seriously considering. However, indications seem to be that the “Disloyal Labour” group are more lefty than the “Loyal Labour” ones who stuck with Blair in 05. The premise I’ve made was that The Project was explicitly designed to appeal to Middle England, floaters, non-core voters, centrists, call it what you will, and the concomitant distortion seen is accepted to be due to its success. I think its undeniable that Blair’s New Labour was a great attractor for the pivotal floaters in the marginals. Polling evidence in the marginals and in the tactical voting approach of the forced question does seem to be that the effect has been lifted (but we’ll see for sure in the early hours of (presumably) May 7th). And as SallyC says, the internal Labour polling at the time of The Election That Never Was seems to point the same way.
39, Sandy Rentool “On topic, I believe that the party vote shares this time around will be comparable to 1992. Therefore, should we not take 1992 as the starting point and look at changes from then (in terms of swing and number of seats). The extrapolation will be less and all of the intervening tactical wind/unwind ignored, which should (!) lead to greater accuracy. Yes, boundaries have changed, as have demographics, but wouldn’t it be reasonable to say that if the vote share in 2010 matches that in 1992, the Tories should get a small majority?”
Perfectly sensible way of looking at it, in my opinion. Bearing in mind the caveats that you’ve clearly stated, it’s very probably a better way than reliance on blind UNS, which many MSM commentators have done in the past. I think you’ll like part 2 of the series, as well.
63, luke ““Since UNS’s last success in 1987, the Conservative lead required for a majority has been different in hindsight by 2% to 4.3% from the position claimed by UNS before the election. Today, UNS claims it’s 10.2%. What will it say was actually the case when the election has been fought?”
Am I right in thinking that the Andy Cooke analysis predicts 6% difference from the UNS?”
Afraid not. Assuming a 20% Lib Dem vote, the difference is about 4.5% from UNS (for central probabilistic forecast of 325+)
117 antifrank
I’ll make a note in my diary to watch the news that day!
Have a good day btw.
re 143 Joshua I presume it’ll be your first time this year. Given that a huge proportion of your peers can’t be bothered to register even on pain of a fine what can be done to energise them.
101. Those figures about as dodgy as a weather forecast from the university of east anglia. There is no way those figures are correct, they are doing some serious manipulation, probably of the kind, pick a really bad area for voter registration, like tower hamlets with a transient population, and then conflate that figure as an average across the country.
Of course the figure is wrong, it couldnt possibly be correct.
143, I do think that sometimes a FPT is entirely valid and proper. Most especially for betting posts, and also in-depth analysis or ne winformation.
65 S & S, Good to see you back, and good to see that the Larouches are still going strong. London does tend to generate big swings. Labour led by 17% across London in 1997, and in 2001. A Conservative lead of 4% in London is good news for them, and bears out Andy Cooke’s point about soft Conservatives who switched to Blair now moving back.
Since 1997, the non-white population of London has grown markedly, so the shift to the Conservatives among white voters since then must be enormous. Race is probably now more important than class as a predictor of voting intentions, among London’s voters.
The last 6 Yougov polls have had London figures of
Con/Lab/LDem
43-32-14
29-39-22
39-30-24
47-29-14
39-30-18
36-35-22
A perfect illustration of the futility of looking at subsamples and drawing conclusions from them
Conservative range 29-47 Lab range 29-39 Libdem range 14-24
FWIW , adding these polls together gives
Con 38.9 Lab 32.5 LD 19.0
re 142 Geoff H how many 17 year-olds do you know who earn over £6475 per year then (equivalent to almost 35 hours per week at the minimum wage)?
150 SF
the shift in white voters assumes more of them haven’t gone off to our home grown national socialist. I don’t think polls will pick this up until the campaign starts and it will impact Labour
141. About as predictable as a Northern Ireland Question Time. Dull, dull, dull.
Questions on climate change, question on bnp and why it is really cool to have multicultural schools, and question on why cant we vote at sixteen.
I think i’ll wash my hair instead.
143 Fluffy Thoughts
“Off to cuddle up with me’s Serbian princess as we watch the football.”
Without Sky, I’ll need to listen on the steam radio.
Naturally, I would normally be supporting England in the other game tonight, but my devotion to the Egyptian princess Scota (who brought the Stone of Destiny to Scotland), clearly requires me to support Egypt.
Andy Cooke you said on the previous thread that you’d set up a spreadsheet to show the deficiencies in UNS. Is it available anywhere?
The rules for the PQT seem bloody stupid.
Texas Primary 2010 - some morning after tea(bagger) leaves:
In yesterday’s GOP gubernatorial primary, 40% of the vote was cast before EDay, via Early Voting.
Here is how the EV shaped up:
Rick Perry (incumbent) = 52.8%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson (US Sen) = 30.8%
Dina Medina (tea party hearty) = 16.4%
And here is how the poll vote cast on EDay performed:
Perry = 49.9% (-2.9% versus EV)
KBH = 30.0% (-0.8%)
Medina = 20.1% (+3.7%)
Which translates into the current total numbers:
Perry = 51.1% (-1.7% versus EV)
KBH = 30.3% (-0.5%)
Medina = 18.6% (+2.2%)
Number show that the Texas T-bagger had stronger appeal with poll voters as compared with early voters. Don’t have figures, but reckon that the latter tend to be somewhat older, richer, more established (and establishment) than the former.
156, Chris A,
I’ll upload the spreadhseets onto Google Docs (there are different ones for each election). They aren’t very polished, but do the job. I’ll try to upload them tonight or tomorrow.
153 Yougov gives the BNP 3% nationwide. That’s too high, given the number of seats they’ll fight.
In London, there are probably about 8 seats where the BNP will pick up hefty votes, including, of course, Barking.
Yay my comment has appeared.
From the Guardian
“Greeks were told today that they faced seeing their country go bankrupt unless they accepted more austerity measures, as the prime minister ignored public outrage and pushed ahead with a radical new package of budgetary reforms.
The draconian measures, unveiled after an emergency cabinet meeting, were essential for the debt-plagued country’s “survival and economy”, said George Papandreou over protests against his policies. ”
Sorry no link as my keyboard is unwilling to open windows from RSS.
133, Mr Jones - excellent analysis
Great poll for the blue team.
I’m on PB-strike until this boring non-dom non-story is finally worn out by the confused lefties. Try not to be too gutted…..
Hoorar for IHT planning though, seeing a family with £1.4m in the bank on friday and none of them are in the Tory Cabinet… and only one is a non-dom and is unrelated to Lords Ashcroft or Paul, but then again she is deemed domicile here so would be stung for IHT.
Boo to DMT, hooray for IHT.
162 - Here’s the link
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/03/greece-austerity-measures
So we have a London poll which suggests the Tories will capture two handfuls of Labour and LibDem seats. The poll was taken at a time when according to everyone the polls put the Tories down into Hung Parliament territory. It begs the question, if indeed the true polling position is closer to AR and the unadjusted YouGov figures, might it not be the case that in London the Tories are doing even better?
I look forward to Channel 4 leading with items on Lord Paul night after night.
The whole Ashcroft “affair” has the makings of being a major car crash not for the Tories but for Labour.
Lord Paul suggesting 100 non-doms in the HoL. Given that the Lords is now dominated by Blair peers, are we going to find lots of FoI requests for the entire Labour front bench there?
129 Paul Boateng bust into tears?
“Brent South today, Sowester tomorrow!”
(that was a really funny pun, if anyone gets it)
165 Brill - thanx Mr Eaglets
160 SF
personally I don’t trust the polls to pick up BNP voting intention. Too many people will lie to the pollsters. The BNP at present are not receiving much publicity , probably because they have not much money, but once the campaign starts this will change as it did in the Euros. The basic causes of the BNP vote surge haven’t actually changed since May last year, and in some areas might have got worse.
163 Ta.
166 Lord Paul said that on C4 ?!?!
Personally I welcome FPTs if they’re from late on the previous thread - saves obsessively reading to the end of the last one when a new one appears.
169. Indeed i am an experienced canvasser, and canvassed a ward, at the end of the comprehensive canvass, noted less then a dozen BNP, their vote on the night? 350
Pleasant poll for the Tories. I still fear Labour are gonna sneak this, unless the Tories SHAPE UP. At least Hague turned the tables on Harman quite nicely.
ON-topic, I spent five hours with my accountant today. I have only just discovered that literary agents’ fees are TAX DEDUCTIBLE.
Yayyyyyyyyy.
Whilst I am old enough to remember Michael Foot, I think the love feast going on on the BBC in particular is nauseating. You need to remind yourself he never became Prime Minister thank goodness, he was a pretty awful leader of the left-wing Labour Party. How he must have hated Tony Blair who was never a Labour man and hated Parliament.
Last YouGov shows Labour as largest party - Pound rallies against the RotW.
Ken Clarke really is past it, is he not?
Just listening to Michael Foot’s speech in the March 1979 confidence motion on the Democracy Live website;
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/historic_moments/newsid_8183000/8183760.stm
Totally brilliant, it’s an absolute shame that it wasn’t televised!
166.
Somone should out the lot of them. Lets have the whole thing out in the open and see where we stand.
152: “re 142 Geoff H how many 17 year-olds do you know who earn over £6475 per year then (equivalent to almost 35 hours per week at the minimum wage)?”
None, but then I don’t know ANY 17-year-olds. But if you’re suggesting that no-one under 18 pays income tax, then I would say you are wrong. No matter how low their earnings they would still be paying National Insurance (income tax by any other name)
When I started work many years ago, on a very, very low wage I was still liable to income tax and NI and that almost three years before I could vote.
176 - Ken Clark is not past it. Perhaps you missed his demolition of Lord Mandelson a few weeks ago?
166:100 Lords? Oh this will get interesting.
seanT - You are calling this wrong.
Hague is damaged and a gift to Labour, Tories refusing to put up spokeen is being announced every night.
Does anyone remember Camerons speech?
And the pound is up I see.
182 tim
Hague, on form, is the best current Parliamentary speaker (possibly excepting George Galloway).
He is a massive asset to the Tories, especially amongst men and Northerners.
169/173: yes, it’s partly that people who are against don’t usually tell you who they’re for, but also that the BNP pick up votes from people who tell you they won’t vote.
What are people expecting from today’s YouGov? Perhaps we should start a rolling contest (like they have on vote-2007 on by-eleciton outcomes): daily predictions of the lead to be posted by 3pm, score by minimum number of points off. I guess it’ll be either 4 or 5 today.
180
Demolition!! Jesus - that is word Hyperbole inflation if ever there was one!
133. MrJones, that is one of the best analyses I have read of the Tories’ existential problems. Indeed I would like to repost the crucial paras, so it gets the attention it deserves:
“[The Tories'] third problem was the “nasty party” tag and to my mind a lot of the Cameroon stuff is a wrong analysis of that. They’re focused on changing things people who’d never vote Tory dislike about the Tories instead of the things potential Tory voters care about.
For example it’s practically impossible to be too right-wing on crime in this country but it’s extremely easy to *sound* too right-wing on crime as there’s an overlap between things people can agree with and things people can be made to feel guilty about agreeing with.
by MrJones March 3rd, 2010 at 7:07 pm”
Spot on. I would put Cameron’s bizarre rant at “that piece of filth” Nick Griffin in this category.
That riff was the kind of thing that will appeal to hardcore smelly narcissistic lefties who will never vote Tory in a million years - indeed the odious BenM praised it on here.
Most people who vote Tory or who might vote Tory probably agree with Nick Griffin that we should have much less immigration, I’m guessing they quietly reject the Establishment’s enthusiasm for multiculturalism, they also think Nick Griffin is a buffoon and a thug - but they certainly don’t need to be told this, they can work it out for themselves.
So what was the point in Cammo’s rant? He was trying to please people who will never ever support him politically - precisely as you say - while irritating those who want to support him.
A waste of precious time.
broken tories on the slide.
Desperate spinning by OGH.
tory lead of 13 reduced to 4 in less than a year.
Thanks Dave!
171 Plato indeed he did when being interviewed by Cathy Newman. So clearly there must be lots of Labour non-dom peers in the HoL since most of the Tory peers are fairly poor in comparison.
185 - I believe, even that noted Tory, Michael White, said it was a proper arse kicking.
102: “Per Electoral Commission (Radio 5):
56% of 18 to 24 year-olds not registered to vote
31% of ethnic minorities not registered to vote”
I wonder if this has been factored into the pollsters samplings. If not it could make quite a difference to the validity of their numbers as being representative actual voters.
Two comments on this Labourhome thread have amusing anecdotes. In one of them, Lord Ashcroft is thought to be Labour; in the other Lord Mandelson is thought to be Tory - to the detriment of their respective non-parties. (The thread itself was interesting, too.)
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=10467
182. Why are you wetting your support garments about tiny and meaningless currency movements.
Chill out, weirdo.
What a sad, sad day in New York politics. Just today, the following have happened:
1) “New York congressman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) has stepped down from his chairmanship of the House Means and Ways committee. His resignation follows months of damaging public inquiries about his alleged mishandling of funds, including last week’s House ethics committee decision that stated, according to Politico, that Rangel “had broken House gift rules by accepting corporate-sponsored travel to the Caribbean.””
http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2010/03/charlie-rangel-resigns-as-chair-of-house-ways-and-means-committee.html
2) “New York Democratic Gov. David Paterson, trying to hold onto office in the face of one scandal, was accused Wednesday of violating state ethics laws when he sought and obtained free Yankees tickets for the 2009 World Series and then may have lied about his intention to pay for them, according to a state report.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ilT96wHGueYhEMzqYN6lUPxZgnJAD9E7AHC80
3) “Rep. Eric Massa (D-N.Y.) will not seek re-election after only one term in office. According to several House aides – on both sides of the aisle – the House ethics committee has been informed of allegations that Massa, who is married with two children, sexually harassed a male staffer.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/33864.html
180. TSE. You mean this?
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/03/mandelson-vs-clarke-in-its-full-glory/
158- SSI
Other infornation on Texas Gov primaries:
Total Republican voters 1,484,070
Total Democrat voters 679,877
Total votes for Perry 758,195
Total votes for White 516,621
Even with a massive victory in the Dem primary, White received much less votes than Perry in a disputed one.
I know that many Dems (especially of the blogging kind) think White has a chance but the sheer difference between the number of people taking part in the two primaries (more than 2 GOPers for 1 Dem) doesn’t sound very promising for the blues!
194 - Yup, that’s the one.
194 Scott P
isn’t Mandelson creepy the way he keeps touching Ken Clarke’s arm ?
Like lots of others on here I only vaguely remember foot, he seemed largely harmless and a bit batty. Kinnock on radio 4 said something that sounded admirable. He said Foot absolutely would have no truck with off the record briefings and smearing through newspapers. You could feel that kinnock regretted it almost immediately as we all know that is the slime ball brown’s modus operandi.
When you look back and see how much the Tory lead in London has shrunk over the last year or so, whose to say it won’t shrink further.
166
The whole Ashcroft “affair” has the makings of being a major car crash not for the Tories but for Labour.
Really! well all of your predictions so far have turned out to be sh*t, that one could be just as accurate.
Hague sounded very shifty and the fact that the Tories didn’t (again) put anyone on C4 news to argue their case, (why do political parties do that?) implies some sort of guilty behaviour.
There could be more of this to run.
p.s.
Before anyone says it, I don’t think any nondom belonging to any party, should be given a peerage,(they should all be leceted anyway) but the heat is on Hague/Ashcroft, to pretend otherwise is absurd.
188 - His point about still being able to not pay tax on his overseas earnings even with the new leglslation is also very damaging for all parties, but mainly Labour as they are the government.
This Ashcroft attack has now as predicted by many got the wrong kind of legs which will cause problems for all parties now.
BTW, on US late-night TV last night . . .
Jay Leno (on his 2nd show of his reincarnation) had as his first guest SARAH PALIN.
David Letterman’s first guest was MITT ROMNEY.
I flipped between the channels so didn’t see either in their entirety. My impression was they both did a reasonable job, though to me it looked that of the dueling ex-Governors, the Man from Massachusetts (via Michigan & Utah) scored slightly better.
At the stark of her schtick with Leno, the Alaskan looked a bit nervous, and came off as over-scripted. However, as the segment moved along, she thawed out and became more confortable. She clearly played it safe; for example, she wore a blouse and slacks, nothing fancy or even slightly risque (of course she’d look great in a burlap sack!) Regarding recent flaps about her dislike of jokes involving her children, Palin was remained harsh against Letterman (of course she had perfect venue about this) but was forgiving about the “Family Guy” my guess is because the joke re: Down’s syndrome on the show was done by a woman who herself has this condition.
Probably the best part of her appearence last night was when Leno gave her the stage to do a typical late-night comedy monologue. Her delivery was a bit off, and some of her joke a bit flat, but she did get off a few good ones. For example (I paraphrase): “It’s really been cold up in Alaska, the temperature has been 5 degrees below the approval rating for Congress.”
As for Mitt Romney on Letterman, his appearence was both more relaxed and more serious (though I saw less of MR than I did of SP) He and Dave chatted about Mitt’s father, the late George Romney, who served 3 terms as GOP Governor of Michigan and before that was a top US auto executive. Some gentle humor about how when Mitt went off to college, his dad gave him a used AMC Rambler (made by Dad’s company) in contrast to the hotter cars driven by his peers. (Dad didn’t give him a car in high school, the old man came off as a Ward Cleaver type!) Romney and Letterman also discussed the (sad) state of the US car industry, with Mitt being cautiously bullish.
No surprise that both Palin and Romney praised the Tea Party animals!
Wibbler
Hague is a lazy politician who has got every strategic call wrong.
this is merely a confirmation of that.
He is also the worst politician in electoral terms that either big party has had as a leader, and that on the day that Michael Foot died.
182
It seems tim is bored and wants a scrap with SeanT. Gabble too is recycling waste by fly-tipping on pb.com.
On the pound. As stated upthread it has risen today against the US Dollar broadly in line with the Euro. The rise does not reverse the losses of the weekend. Good economic news in the US has seen equity markets rise today. The strength of the European currencies may be due to the announcement that the Greek government is taking its commitment to deficit reduction seriously by introducing further fiscal measures.
It is worth quoting from the Guardian article mentioned by Plato and linked by TSE.
The new measures include further cuts in civil servants’ annual pay through a 30% reduction of bonuses traditionally handed out at Easter and Christmas; a 2% hike in VAT, from the current 19%; higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and luxury goods, including cars and yachts, and a freeze on state-funded pensions.
But, with fears of social unrest also mounting, opposition was swift and strong. Reacting to the “barbaric” policies, the hardline KKE communist party called on Greeks to take to the streets.
“It is the responsibility and duty of workers and the poor to reject the lies of the government, the EU, the plutocracy and to rise up against these measures,” it said.
So here we have the choice facing the UK: action or denial. All the talk of Hague and Ashcroft is irrelevant compared to this. The budget cometh. That is the time to be watching the relative value of the pound.
197. isn’t Mandelson creepy
the way he keeps touching Ken Clarke’s arm ?He wouldn’t be top of my list for a pint in the pub
Repost from this morning…
More V positive econ numbers — Cons confidence at a 2 year high, PMI services suggesting Q1 growth of 0.7 per cent on April 23rd. Pound up
193- S and S
NY 29 seems a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP (Massa only won 51/49 in 2008)
By the way I spent part of last summer in that district (and the neighboring NY 24). Very nice place. I was quite a bit surprised to hear it was represented by a Democrat (the district seems very rural and very white)
203. Mandelson, the Hugh Despenser de nos jours?
95. HE’S BALD
HELLO
131. The true gems are in the comments, where people start slinging mud at Diane Abbott and accuse Peter Mandelson of conniving to bring about Foot’s end. Presumably he murdered Foot with his aura or something.
198
Yep! Michael Foot was just the sort of Labour leader Tories love, he lost elections. Still even under Michael Foot Labour didn’t do as badly as John Major. Even today, the Tories haven’t risen above the number of seats that Michael Foot managed to win.
204 Scott
well they could hardly go down any lower, just because the band on the Titanic are playing “things can only get better” doesn’t mean they will.
Ashcroft is stinking up the marginals.
His mere involvement is now cause for suspicion:
“Lord Ashcroft gave £29,000 to South Dorset Conservative campaign”
http://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/5038333.Lord_Ashcroft_gave___29_000_to_South_Dorset_Conservative_campaign/
205- Even rural, white parts of New York have been trending Democratic for quite a while, but the Dems certainly don’t have these sorts of districts in the bag either. Massa was already expecting a tough fight to keep his seat before this revelation forced him to retire, so I would be looking for a GOP pickup here in November.
190 - what should be factored is the votes who cannot vote at the General Election - mostly non-UK nationals. With a large influx of votes from Eastern Europe some seats will have quite a number who cannot vote and with have the letter ‘K’ alongside their name. When results are being declared the turnout figure quoted should be eligible to vote rather than total electorate.
208. In seats, maybe, but not in terms of actual support. Foot only managed 27.6% of the vote!
186 Ta. The “nasty party” thing does exist and it does keep the softer Tories at home or voting LD and the Cameroon tactics has helped bring them back in but at the cost of annoying too(?) many of their other voters (imo). There’s ways of dealing with the nasty party tag simply through saying the same things but in a different way.
Crime is a good example. Attacking the criminals can easily be caricatured in the media as a “nasty” hang em and flog em type attitude based on either being a bit psycho or having some kind of sexual fetish for whipping. Couching everything in terms of defending the victims or future victims of crime can still be argued for or against but it’s hard to pin a “nasty” tag on it.
It’s the same with stuff like back to basics. As soon as you talk in those terms the media are off looking for skellies in the closet and once some are inevitably found then it’s you get the hypocritical version of “nasty” tagged on. A lot of what IDS says is more or less identical to back to basics but because he couches it in a data-driven pragmatic way the nasty tag won’t stick.
OT, but probably important tomorrow. Zippy endorses Osborne’s position on spending…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/mar/03/treasury-spending-cuts-budget
210 gabble
yeah I’m sure the 1200 AstraZeneca employees who lost their jobs in Leicestershire today will just be freaking out tonight about Ashcroft.
20. Gobble, I do like the thought of your furiously googling for dirt on Lord A. Yet the best you can achieve is a ‘man donates money to local campaign’ SHOCKER in a provincial rag. Must do better.
When are we going to get a proper poll?
This is a testing time for Conservatives, and especially for those who believe in David Cameron. Uncertainty is driving out confidence. Panic is outbidding calm. The Tory leader has tried to stem the tide, but his no-notes speech to the faithful in Brighton on Sunday has not had the stabilising effect he had hoped. The situation remains critical. Vote for change, Mr Cameron tells us, but even those who believe change is needed are still wondering about what kind of changes he means.
Having spent the past few days speaking to a wide range of Tories, let me set out the immediate difficulties, before suggesting some causes for optimism. The most pressing difficulty is the mad, Alice in Wonderland quality of British politics. Mr Cameron and his party are up against the master of lies and smears, yet it is their integrity that is being questioned. They have been in opposition for 13 unlucky years, yet it is their policies that are being scrutinised and tested. Labour has taken Britain to the brink of ruin, yet it is Mr Cameron who is having to explain why he won’t make things worse.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/benedict-brogan/7362571/The-Tories-are-on-a-rocky-road-towards-their-sunlit-uplands.html
210: Unite the union is stinking up the marginals
Lord Paul is stinking up the marginals
214. Yes.
Another example. A sensible Tory “attack” on mass immigration should not be framed as “lowering immigration” or being “against immigration”, instead it should be framed as: “defending the basic wages of our people”, “looking after ordinary working Brits”, etc etc
That sounds nice and honest and decent - and it is - but it is still an attack on Labour’s reckless and irresponsible policy of mass immigration, just an attack that everyone can feel comfortable about.
I hope CCHQ are reading our enlightened exchanges.
On a few questions posted about Michael Foot.
With his passing, the last survivor of the 1945 General Election is John Freeman (Lab, Watford), who recently turned 95.
Next up is Robert Carr, 93, (Con, Mitcham) who is the last survivor of the 1950 General Election. Next is Tony Benn 85, (Lab, Bristol South East) who came in at a 1950 by-election.
Michael Foot’s first job after coming down from Oxford was as a shipping clerk in Liverpool (I’d love to be know the company, but have been unable to discover it.) A Liberal up to then, he was converted to Socialism by the scale of poverty and deprivation he witnessed in Liverpool during the depression of the 1930s.
Foot’s great speech,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7972645.stm
and his reminiscences of the NOM during the last days of the Labour government in 1979 can be heard here.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/audio/40149000/rm/_40149977_tipspecial.ram
You may need Real Audio Player
http://uk.real.com/realplayer/
218 - on election day.
216, 217
Ashcroft is a gift to every other party in the marginals.
Here’s another example:
http://www.stourbridgenews.co.uk/news/5039971.Political_war_of_words_over__Ashcash_/
224.
….and another:
“Tory party ‘bought like a banana republic’”
http://www.thisisgrimsby.co.uk/news/Tory-party-bought-like-banana-republic/article-1881909-detail/article.html
MIKE HOW ON EARTH CAN YOU SAY THIS IS A GOOD POLL FOR THE TORIES WHEN THEY HAVE DROPPED 7 POINTS SINCE APRIL LAST YEAR?????????????
213
In case you hadn’t noticed as far as the HofC is concerend its seats that matter. If you think otherwise, then welcome to the wonderful world of PR.
224 gabble
oh really ? The party which will benefit most is the BNP as the protest vote that actually gets taken seriously. Given Labour have effectively handed over swathes of Northen England to them it’s you who will suffer most.
FFS who would have thought Barnsley home of the NUM would have 1 in 6 voters backing them ?
Yeah chivvy up the metropolitan gossip but you are pointing your guns in the wrong direction.
210, 224, 225. I have an image of a squat and dwarvish Gabble, sweating in the engine room of Labour HQ, furiously adjusting gaskets on The Grand Old Labour Spin Machine.
Gabble, this is how you spend your life?
*poignant*
112. It’s not the intricacies of tax system that will excercise people but the notion that the deputy chairman of the Tory Party has avoided paying £120,000,000 in UK tax. I went for lunch with a creative director of an ad agency yesterday who isn’t going to vote Labour but thought it a very significant story.
228: He probably has a database of local papers to cycle through….
laughable really.
229 roger
only cos he wishes he could ramp his fees up to the same level.
“Ashcroft kept me in the dark ” says Haque.
Looks like they are dumping on the man who fed them.
Always a dangerous game to play.
cathynewman
C4News EXCLUSIVE: Labour peer Lord Paul says there could be 100 non-dom peers. I’ve FactChecked… http://tiny.cc/VCWKV
tory marginals campaign = Ashcroft
Thanks William.
when did Foot die today and when was it announced?
Another constituency where Ash cash is becoming an issue:
http://www.politics.co.uk/mps/press-releases/party-politics/labour/dave-anderson-challenges-local-conservative-over-ashcroft-cash-and-tax-status-$1363390.htm
roger, I asked a question of you yesterday, you appear to have missed it, so let’s try again.
Do you take professional tax advice to minimise the amount of tax you pay?
Or do you just stump up without a care in the world?
234 gabble
tedious post.
It’s really quite obvious that labour are trying to keep everything away from discussing their record in power.
13 years and by your own standards you have failed miserably; you’ve knifed your core supporters, impoverished their children and dragged everyone into the midden with you.
Maybe Ashcroft could offer every Londoner a grand to vote Tory ( and a week in Belize)
229 - but then again that applies to loads of Labour peers who are non doms.The nauseating hypocricy surrounding this is truly sickmaking. Have to say that after the performance of the media over the past few days I now expect Labour to win the GE. If the media will not stand up to the Labour spin machime and properly hold Labour (and the Lib Dems) to account on the non doms in their Party who have and are funding the Governing Party and point out just how much tax they have avoided then its pretty obvious that the game is up for the Conservatives. The Labour campaign is basically smear and scare.
235. At 0700. I understand it was announced by Jack Straw in the Commons.
“I went for lunch with a creative director of an ad agency yesterday who isn’t going to vote Labour but thought it a very significant story.
by Roger March 3rd, 2010 at 8:21 pm”
If a computer was asked to devise a comment by Roger containing all the classic elements of his remarks it would produce this statement.
Everything is here in one delicious sentence: a spurious “friend”; the mention of some food or drink; the embarrassing boastfulness “I went for lunch with a creative director” - like we need to know it is a CREATIVE DIRECTOR - thanks Roger; the inexplicable attachment of importance to this single friend’s opinion; the allusion to Roger’s long forgotten career in advertising; and, not least, the lyrical pomposity of the voicetone.
Superb.
129 Really Roger, do grow up - no one is going to believe that and what would the figure be for Mssrs Mittall, Paul etc.
Will we know in the next week or so if there it is to be an April election. As yet there is no date for the budget set and if it is to be March 17 it should be announced in the next few days. my hunch is given that no budget has been announced yet, and the dates of the easter recess not confirmed then Gordon is thinking about April 8th or 15th as election day.
221 Zactly zo. Personally i don’t think they should do it because i’m 99.99% certain they’d get it wrong and it’d blow up in their face but if they did it would only work if couched in the sort of terms you describe that couldn’t be spun as nasty.
Can someone please, please explain to me why Labour are still banging on about this when they actually appear to have taken more money from non-doms? Is it that they actually don’t see the massive hypocrisy, or are they really that simple?
And I don’t even buy the ‘Ashcroft was secretive about it’ nonsense. As if anyone is under a duty to declare to the public how they pay their taxes.
gabble, if Ashcroft was to be repaid all the money he donated to the tory party how much would it be?
If the Labour party repaid all the money to the non-doms they have taken money from (even though as the party in power they had the opportunity to make it illegal to receive money from non-doms in the first place) who would lose the most money?
236 - I suspect the Tories weren’t banking on winning Blaydon. They got 8% last time FFS.
A truly pointless post from an absolute stroker of an individual.
245 raven
they are banging on about it because they want people to discuss anything but their record of failure.
238. Alanbrooke
The GE will be won or lost in the marginals.
The tories have worked hard to place a self-destruct mechanism into each and every one of them.
Genius!
What happened to sterling meltdown
Ok, where are we with the Ashcroft thing now, it was a Westminster story until.
1.Hague starts to finally appear all over the TV - Tick
2.Every Tory candidate in a marginal is going to be asked about Ashcroft money. Tick.
3.All the Media outlets are interested. Tick
4. The posh boys at HQ look like amateurs or in bed with their rich friends. Tick
5.Camerons speech is forgotten. Tick.
Policy launches are a minefield as every Tory spokesman gets asked about Ashcroft. Tick.
Now remind me why this is about Harman at PMQ’s?
Now we’re losing to EGYPT.
New Angus Reid poll: Tories with 4 per cent lead
http://tinyurl.com/ykbaggj
242- ROTFL
Sean, what would we do without you?
222 The shipping company was called Blue Funnel Line (mentioned in Kenneth Morgan’s 2007 biog of Foot).
Sean hits the Roger nail on the head.
Anyone watching England? I’m hoping England can start playing some nice football but my 0-1 beer tokens mean I’m not too upset by Fat Frank missing from 8 yards.
253. lol. Very good. I clicked on with a kind of masochistic and macabre glee.
250 - SeanT was talked down off a bridge at 9.37 Am this morning when the pound moved up 0.02 cents and a large injection of perspective was administered by a trained marksman.
253. Wibbler you little tinker…
Behave…
Gove on Daily Politics re Ashcroft: I couldn’t say - I wasn’t there at the time - I don”t know the full facts - Oh, is that the time - sorry I have to leave now.
Not me Gove honest.
242 And two prime examples of the Autobiographical Fallacy in the one sentence.
btw it is an index of tory depression that no one has linked to this http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase for weeks. Presumably because of a gut-wrenching fear that allowing for time-shift it may be bang on the money.
249 gabble
no you have. keep banging the discrdited politics theme and you will suffer most. Votes won’t go to the big parties ( a plague on them all ) but to the protest parties.
You suffered most from the protest vote as you’ve forgotten how shopfloor workers view politicians. Protest votes won’t go to the Tories but to the other one-eyed leader.
Keep shooting Nick’s behind you all the way!
Saw Michael Heseltine on Channel 4 News talking about the death of Michael Foot.
Heseltine is a very honourable man in many regards, showing respect to his political opponents.
Courage walking out of cabinet.
Standing up against Margaret Thatcher.
Integrity honesty in not letting innocent men go to prison.
Scott Enquiry arms to Iraq
The best PM we never had.
253 - don’t do things like that Wibbler !!
roger, it’s not difficult. Do you take professional advice to minimise the amount of tax you pay?
I don’t, because all my income is subject to PAYE.
You as an international luncher and mixer in the circles of creative directors of note no doubt do not pay tax via PAYE.
So once again, do you take professional advice to minimise the amount of tax you pay?
253 - ‘New Angus Reid poll: Tories with 4 per cent lead’
Not good for Labour either though - the Liberals are in second place!
247. Max - the Ashcroft issue is not going away and the Tories have a very big problem. Calling people names is not the way to deal with it.
229 Roger
I went for lunch with a creative director of an ad agency yesterday who isn’t going to vote Labour but thought it a very significant story.
What’s it like being invited to lunch by someone who is dreaming of hosting another guest? What did you do or say to break the silences?
263 - The best PM we never had…Denis Healey by a zillion miles.
Looks like Ashcroft forgot to buy off the Egyptians.
255. Thanks. My grandfather sailed with them, and was one of the unemployed in Liverpool at the time in question…
248 Don’t worry Gordon will have to talk about their record in the debates, which will mean either:-
1) he tries to ignore it. Which will prove the point it is awful and as past performance is best predictor of future performance good luck with that strategy gordo.
2) he tries to change the subject in which case see above he is avoiding his awful record.
3) Does tractor stats otherwise known as brownies, which will be rvealed as such eiither on the day or the next morning and for two more weeks.
4) Shouts and screams “wrong” lots which will just look childish and will just be another attempt at avoiding the question.
The best thing is is there are 3 debates and gordo is bound to try one or more of these strategies each debate and the papers the day after will have a field day, factchecking and analysing. Leading to a narrative of gordo scared of telling the truth about his disasterous record.
252 SeanT
It’s the curse of Scota for the Suez illegal war.
David Roe..tut tut get watching Northern Ireland.
We are officially crap. Admittedly its a very much a changed back four and we are missing plenty of the most steady players but thats a side issue, no attacking purpose at all. We lose about 4-5 players and we just fall apart.
Worthington out!
Roger.
Do you think Hague is having a go at losing two elections for the Tories?
Tainting every candidate in a winnable seat makes his Archer period look like a warm up.
Like moat dredging, a critical problem for Tories re: Ashcroft is that “a plague on both your houses” appears likely to hurt Conservatives somewhat worse than Labour.
Plus the fact that it took the wind out of Cameron’s sails at an important juncture.
Not fatal. But not ept.
Weird really but nobody would think that its Labour who have been in power for the past 13 years and who have done absolutely nothing to alter the tax paid by non doms or indeed whether they should even sit in the H.O..Yet all of a sudden this apparently is an issue of major constitutional and moral significance and its the Tories who are getting hammered for doing something absolutely legal.
274 Yokel
normally it’s much more fun than that, they will beat Germany but then lose to Iceland.
267. It’s a story with negligible public interest though. I know Labour is desperately hoping it is going to be a gamechanger, but it’s not, because clearly precious few people beyond Labour and the left-wing press even care about it. And he didn’t even do anything wrong.
Labour need to be so careful about pushing this too far. As Hague said at PMQs - glass houses and all that.
277 -H.O.. should be H.O.L(House of Lords) Apols.
Lampard having a shocker.
269 Tim decent choice but still would have preferred Heseltine in the 80`s and early 90`s
274- Talking about our (disappointing) national teams apparently France is also losing against Spain, nothing surprising really…
267 - I was mearly pointing out that it’s not Ashcroft that will cost us Blaydon.
And as for name calling I’m willing to bet that anyone who spends as much time on the internet as Gabble probably does get up to a fair bit of stoking.
242 - comment of the week!
Roger is becoming a parody of himself. He believes in the cause but he’s like a fat, lazy SA man: an Ernst Rohm-style debauchee whose self-indulgence gets in the way of being an effective soldier for the Fuhrer.
Tim, on the other hand, is Reinhart Heydrich, all shiny boots, sneers and relentless efficiency. Gabble is Julius Streicher, a ranting, hate-filled sloganiser. Perhaps Rod Crosby is Rosenberg.
The forces of hell indeed.
274 - But when you’re central midfield partnership comes from Glanford Park you KNOW you’re sh1te.
I’ve BEEN to Glanford Park. In fact I went to the Old Showground twice. My gramps was best mates with the old chairman of the Iron.
Stick that in your pipe, Roger
250 Big John
What happened to sterling meltdown
The Tories recovered in the polls. The pound is still at risk if this trend reverses. Why not hedge by going long on the Zimbabwean Dollar?
“250.What happened to sterling meltdown”
The 2% Tory lead went back into 5-6% non melt-down terriotory?
285 Colin
I’ll pass on your info re tim to my czech friends.
Argentines are thrilled about the unexpected U.S. support for negotiations over the Falklands:
“Argentina was celebrating a diplomatic coup yesterday in its attempt to force Britain to accept talks on the future of the Falkland Islands, after a two-hour meeting in Buenos Aires between Hillary Clinton and President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner…
Héctor Timerman, the Argentine Ambassador to the US, said he had never seen “such substantial support” from Washington for his country’s claim. Mrs Clinton had not only offered to mediate but had also signalled that talks should be in line with existing UN resolutions, he insisted, referring to non-binding UN General Assembly resolutions from the 1970s that urge both sides to negotiate.
Ruperto Godoy, the official Argentine government spokesman on the islands, said the new pressure from Mrs Clinton was “very significant, very important” and would help Buenos Aires to force Britain to the negotiating table.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7047309.ece
So at the moment England, Wales and Northern Ireland are losing while the Scots are battling well at Hampden 0-0.
287 - The Tories fell in the polls.
Here’s a taste of what is to come in every seat in the country.
Tory candidates denying links with Ashcroft.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Lord-Ashcroft-paid-for-Tory.6118653.jp
285
And you’re presumably Goebbels?
279. Ashcroft is not a game changer - it’s a slow drip of corrosion over the battered Tory brand. The Ashcroft affair stinks to the heavens and no amount of desperate bluenose whataboutery can change that fact!
251 ‘The posh boys at HQ look like amateurs or in bed with their rich friends’
tim, most of those apply to you too. How funny.
Posh. Tick. Amateur. Tick. Rich friends. Tick.
292 tim
pure GINIus I don’t think.
287
Or the Belizean pound.
Which of these hired Labour goons will still be here on 7th May?
285. That makes Nick Palmer Albert Speer, at heart maybe a decent man, but enslaved to a revolting regime by his own abject careerism.
Bob Sykes is Lord Haw Haw.
279 Kratz its not neglibile when you link money can buy you anything,unfettered influence to an already rich priviliged elite.
Who are stating we are all in this together.
John Prescott. The Forces of Hull!
Prescott = Goering - fat incompotent buffoon
roger, I see that you do not answer direct questions.
I think it is safe to assume that you do take professional advice to reduce the amount of tax you pay, this makes you a massive hypocrite in addition to a founder member of Pseuds Corner.
293 - no, that’s you bribrad.
2% hung parliament
5% HUNG PARLIAMENT
How could I have forgotten you, BenM?
You’re Artur Axmann.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artur_Axmann
I would be grateful if Gabble, tim or Goupillon could explain why Lord Ashcroft is a problem for the Tories. I would not be at all surprised if the Tory lead went up as floating voters like me are repelled by the rank hypocrisy on display by left of centre politicians who have been very happy to take non-dom cash or indeed take personal advantage of tax residency rules seek to criticise opponents for doing the self-same thing. As of today I’m more likely to vote Tory than any day in the last two years.
304. I see the sudden influx of new pb Labourites - BenM, Bribrad, etc - as essentially an outbreak of Hitler Youth.
This is not the Nazi elite. These are the indoctrinated shock troops.
292 - Tim I live and work in Edinburgh and no-one, literally no-one is talking about Lord Ashcroft.
I can’t help thinking that your lack of perspective comes from spending all day everyday posting on the internet rather than conversing with other people.
308: Indeed, the young and infirm shoved in front of the advancing armys before the final march on the bunker!
Speaking of non doms the COI which manages the government’s advertising spend has signed a single company deal with a group with a Jersey incorporated company resident for tax purposes in the Republic of Ireland. Still they only spend £232m per year. [Private Eye].
Sort of puts Lord Ashcroft in the shade, doesn’t it.
308 Sean T
and like the HJ the will grow up into their 30s and realise what a shit cause they fought for.
While Labour supporters on here wet themseleves over the Ashcroft tedium, THIS;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7360825/James-Bulger-Jack-Straw-refuses-to-say-why-killer-was-returned-to-jail.html
Is what they will be talking about down the Dog and Suck tonight.
304
Colin - how do you think of these witty retorts?
What Lord Ashcroft should do is set his lawyers upon the libellers and then apply any out of court settlements or damages to the 2015 Conservative campaign.
The irony of the Tories being financed by their fiercest opponents from the left would not be lost on the electorate.
313 GIN
that, the football and Michael Foot.
Whatever you compare these bunkerbots to, they need to get a life. The football is on, the pubs are full, there’s even some girls out watching.
Get a life lads, get laid.
Not sure I can understand all this stuff about Healey being the best PM we never had. My recollection is that he was CofE in the last Labour Government that virtually bankrupted the nation and had to go with his tail between his legs to beg some cash from the IMF.
re 179 of course I’m not saying that none pay tax, but then again it wasn’t me who said “Plenty of people, all under 18s with an income over the personal tax allowance, for instance”.
I was just trying to get you to quantify plenty. And yes I paid NI when I worked as a schoolboy, but never income tax.
315 - hasn’t he already got the legal eagles on the Independent ?
The Bulger story is the big one at the moment.
There’s no rights and wrongs about it, but GIN is right that England playing at Wembley and Venables back in stir are the stories people are talking about outside of obsessives.
307. I do believe Labour are in danger of doing a Lettergate on Cashcroft: i.e. pressing an initial advantage to such an hysterical extent it ends up backfiring.
The idea of Labour - after expensesgate and cash-for-ermine - getting all moral and lofty and high-and-mighty about the role of money in politics just REEKS.
Channel 4 news tonight was an example of this. The interview with a very shifty Lord Paul was much more unedifying than any revelation about Ashcroft.
307 - Leaving aside the financial stuff and Hagues judgement what does the Ashcroft news management tell you about the Tories campaigning ability.
To drop the announcement into the news cycle after Camerons speech and obscure Goves Education launch tells you what about the operation that has managed to get a 17% lead down to 7% in four months.
If Labour wins I’m moving to Belize and taking all my money with me.
318 SG
I think it’s because they are looking Healy to go to the IMF again. Balls hasn’t the guts.
No knocking The Irons..home of Grant McCann, great player in a green shirt.
Meanwhile Johnny Evans younger brother Corry makes his debut.
Hmm. We know Hattie’s definition of AWS; what is her definition of tainted?
HarrietHarman
Tories should be ashamed of Ashcroft broken tax promises. But they have no shame and are trying to win election with tainted money.
324. Good.
Generous report on Michael Foot, not so at the time as I remember it. I also recall Neil Kinnock woundingly being called “Michael Foot with video” in the early day of being pilloried by the right wing press.
re 229 Roger and how much do you cough up to the Treasury coffers? I presume that you’ll have no problems in telling us.
322 SeanT, even Saint Tony of the Blessed Byzantine Partnership Structure managed to get into trouble over the Ecclestone Affair.
323 tim
actually it tells me more about Labour. You have been pushing the same theme now for 15 hours.
Your only tactic is to keep people off Labour’s abysmal failure in office. It tells me Labour are afraid to produce policies because they are not credible and your hope is to stay on the attack and hope the opposition don’t realise how weak your defenses are.
305 - surely the reason why the pound fell was that a 2% lead definitely means Brown gets back as PM. I appeciate that for reasons which pass me by neither the BBC or Sky dare say that, but surely that is the reason.
274, Yokel - perhaps youse could switch to short track ice racing . . . and recruit Apolo O’No?
Chris from Bethesda - excellent points re: relative TX Rep vs Dem primary vote and the “Massa’s In the Cold, Cold [Political] Grave” problem.
Re: TX, note that the Democratic primary was a lot less exciting than the GOP primary. Unless of course your’re a big Kinky Friedman (as opposed to Milton Friedman) fan. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Republicans now dominate Texas politics the way the Dems used to for most of the late 20th cen.
Wouldn’t entirely write off Bill White’s chances of upsetting Rick Perry. In terms of intellect & achievement, the former Houston mayor runs rings around a guy who could be characterized as W-Lite.
However, Rick Perry is an electoral if not gubernatorial winner. So I expect White to lose. But he’ll give it the old college try, that’s for sure.
Best thing for Perry out of the primary (besides avoiding runoff) is that Medina makes him look like the voice of reason.
As for Massa & NY, this indeed appears to be a likely pickup for the GOP, all part of the NY Dem meltdown that S&S has noted (with loving detail!)
Methinks part of our problem (speaking as a Democrat) is that a) we’ve not done good enough job vetting candidates; and even more b) we lack a real heavy (like Tom DeLay) who can put the fear o’ God into potential weak links.
Don. Yes of course I do but you’ll find there aren’t ways of getting out of paying tax even for the self employed other than setting up companies which I didn’t want to do.
323 - this is the interesting thing. I’ve long thought that the Tories like the left obsessing about Lord Ashcroft. I’m very doubtful that it’s damaging to the Tories and it may be actively helpful, making otherwise serious Labour and Lib Dem politicians look trivial and petty. Harriet Harman looks absurd calling for resignations and former MEP Chris Huhne whose party leadership campaign was funded by a non-dom looks still worse. It enthuses activists but then so would renationalisation of the water supply system.
Yessss!!!!
Having just had blood pressure/samples taken for various aches and pains as I approach 40,one amusing thought springs-wonder how high the BP of some anxious right-wingers on here is,as the very real possibility of a fourth straight defeat on the spin faces them pretty soon??
Excellent finish by Crouch.
Absolutely priceless behaviour by the bots this evening.
Gentlemen (giving you the benefit of the doubt) which party sourced £18 million of loans from undisclosed sources via a man whose only service to Britain was to play tennis every week with Tony Blair for which he was given a peerage.
Just to remind you, the Treasurer of that party who recently secured the nomination for a supposedly safe seat because his wife insists on all-woman shortlists against the wishes of local constituency parties didn’t actually know about said £18 million passing through the bank accounts he was submitting reports on to the Electoral Commission.
A clue, it wasn’t the Tory party!
Ashcroft has been barely mentioned on news channels today.
Labour get very worked up about the fact that wealthy non-doms donate to the Conservatives as well as to their own party.
305
Oh God, back to the evil lefties at BBC and Sky. Thought Sky belonged to good old Rupert ( true Brit) Murdoch. Perhaps Ashcroft could buy up every media outlet to make sure the British people get the real picture.
335 Roger
There aren’t ways of getting out of paying tax even for the self employed other than setting up companies which I didn’t want to do.
You could always set up a country, domicile yourself there and then help close the Labour funding gap with tax-free donations.
You could then post to pb.com from overseas as Lord Roger of Wardour Street.
334. We’ve had our share of my sister once wore a green skirt recruits. It doesn’t work.
Ah feck..off the post.
roger, you employ someone to reduce the amount of tax you pay and he doesn’t reduce the amount of tax you pay!
You are either a bigger cock than I thought you are, or a liar.
I cant believe it Egypt 1, England 0, Bloody hell!
322@seant. I agree with this. For me Ashcroft is a none story in the same way Greengate and Bullygate were none stories - they are largely ignored by the electorate, because the message is not clear. My wife just said “what’s a nondom?” and returned to her paper.
If the press had the evidence to write “tax dodger tries to buy election” that would have been a different matter.
Labour should leave off, keep it tight and attack the Tories on their flipflopping while spreading a positive optimistic message. That is the way to knock off the last few points, whether it is honest of not. Cashcroft could, as you say, be another exploding lettergate.
I don´t think there is any problem over donations from non-doms, is there? - as long as their donations come from UK-taxed sources.
In the case of the various non-dom peers, the key distinction is that, as they have accepted a position as part of the UK legislature, they have defined their commitment to the UK; and thereby defined (or re-defined) their domicile.
Lord Ashcroft, Lord Paul and possibly others have clarly defined themselves as domiciled in the UK. And therefore should pay up the backlog of tax that they owe us.
Scotland 1 – 0 Czechia
338 Patrick
have you seen what the next government is taking over ? I should think if it wasn’t for the salary loss a lot of MPs would willingly sit this next Parliament out.
342 bribrad
Perhaps Ashcroft could buy up every media outlet to make sure the British people get the real picture.
Perhaps you are not as stupid as we all thought.
O/T I heard a while back that some councils in Essex were cutting some staff’s salaries, I know of one guy who lost 10%.
Today I hear Waltham Forest council is cutting jobs at present.
Should have gone in March Gordo……
Never was one for getting things right was he.
346. WC
We’ve equalised - Crouch….
Re 346….Now equal one all. Thats better
347. Bobajob. Is it a sort of ineffective contraceptive device?
One addendum to the excellent post by Mr.Jones at 133:
Upon his becoming leader in ‘94,Tony Blair ruthlessly pushed through reforms and policy initiatives that had been first proposed to Labours NEC in summer ‘93 when John Smith was still leader-they were rejected.
Blair,with total ruthlessness pushed through reforms that many party members were probably unhappy with-but at the end of the day,Blairs electoral record speaks for itself.
I would say Cameron has started the transition of modernising the Tories,but ,by his won party has been forced to go much slower than maybe he would have liked to go.
It may be that the original ‘two-election’ strategy (assuming DC stayed post-defeat’ may be the route that the Conservative Party have to traverse to get back to power
352 floater
job cuts will start feeding through between now and June.
Councils are starting now and the banks have started being a bit more “generous” in lending to large firms to fund redundancy payments.
Extraordinary athleticism from Rooney. Nearly scored.
If we’re gonna win the World Cup (which we’re not, but hey) then Rooney will be the key man. He is our one bit of true world class.
332. The problem the Tories have is that prior to the timely Ashcroft revelations - which are rollingalong nicely and eroding the Tory brand by the hour - is that they were shedding votes with every half baked loony rightwing policy announcement too! It’s a double whammy mate - everywhere the Tories turn they lose more votes! Education is a classic: nonsensical, unworkable, untested and where tried, a hopeless failure!
What a hoot!
349 - I had a good feeling tonight with so many ex (and one current)-Jambos involved.
Ok, where are we with the Ashcroft thing now, it was a Westminster story until.
1.Hague starts to finally appear all over the TV - Tick
2.Every Tory candidate in a marginal is going to be asked about Ashcroft money. Tick.
3.All the Media outlets are interested. Tick
4. The posh boys at HQ look like amateurs or in bed with their rich friends. Tick
5.Camerons speech is forgotten. Tick.
Policy launches are a minefield as every Tory spokesman gets asked about Ashcroft. Tick.
Now remind me why this is about Harman at PMQ’s?
by tim March 3rd, 2010 at 8:35 pm
Tim you are a joker !!!!
Have we had one Tory voter come on here and say “I will not vote Tory because of Ashcroft?” It does not matter that people like you say it.
I have been away for two days, but had PMs Questions on the radio, and Hague made your Deputy Labour party leader look a right fool.
She did not answer one question, and if she is your number two, God help us !!!!!!
By the way if you are a Farmer how do you get on here so much?
351
Jawohl,mein Fuhrer.
350 I see your mindset- I just feel that the last two months have proven the Tories are not that good at Opposition-so what the hell might they be like at actaul government?
358 SeanT
We’re gonna win the World Cup
Why don’t we ask Lord Ashcroft to buy it for us?
Less of a risk than relying on Rooney.
Tweetminster sentiment index has had a massive move over last 24 hrs towards lab.
Should mean a further narrowing of polls going forward over next 2 to 3 days
Sentiment score variations in the past 24 hours: CON -7, LAB +9, LDEM +7. Cameron: -2, Brown: +4 Clegg:+8
Re 219, The most pressing difficulty is the mad, Alice in Wonderland quality of British politics. Mr Cameron and his party are up against the master of lies and smears, yet it is their integrity that is being questioned. They have been in opposition for 13 unlucky years, yet it is their policies that are being scrutinised and tested. Labour has taken Britain to the brink of ruin, yet it is Mr Cameron who is having to explain why he won’t make things worse.
What Benedict Brogan refers to as “the mad, Alice in Wonderland quality of British politics” is the same phenomenon that Mr Darling refers to as “the Forces of Hell”.
Quite soberly, if Mr Cameron & the Conservatives can get through the GE - win or lose - without resorting to the same Faustian pact, they will have done extremely well.
If William Hague was leader, the Tories would be way ahead in the polls
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100027711/if-william-hague-was-leader-the-tories-would-be-way-ahead-in-the-polls/
When are tonights polls due?
304. I see the sudden influx of new pb Labourites - BenM, Bribrad, etc - as essentially an outbreak of Hitler Youth.
This is not the Nazi elite. These are the indoctrinated shock troops.
by SeanT March 3rd, 2010 at 8:59 pm
You’re right Sean, they are more like the Stasi. 5 more years of them in power…………………OMG!
One for the monkey spankers and chicken chokers:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/03/deborah-orr-non-dom-donors
BenM
great so you want to talk about the economy.
Tell me Ben why have income disparities continued to rise under this government ? Surely he point of 13 years of Labour government was to reduce these inequalities - why have you failed even on your own measure ?
68 - I watched PMQ’s when I got in from work.
Wow, hands up those who thought Harman was leadership material, you know who you are
The Channel 4 news item on the most recent developments concerning William Hague and Lord Ashcroft is now up on the web:
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/hague+told+ashcroft+nondom+8216in+recent+months8217/3568267
356 That’s the key difference between Cameron & Blair. After Blair had abolished clause 4 no one could possibly accuse him of being a front man for old Labour and it was clear beyond any doubt that the party he led was different from the one which was defeated in 1979. Cameron has never confronted his party’s demons in that way - he has merely tiptoed around them, and even tried to appease them through the withdrawl from the EPP, and thus he finds it much harder to convince people that the Tory party really is different from the one that was rejected in 1997.
Re all of the Ashcroft hysteria. I’m probably running the risk of being branded a simpleton but all the cash is doing is putting a few leaflets through doors and similar.
It isn’t actually buying votes unless you believe the electorate to be sheeple of the first order. If the money was being spent to help facilitate postal vote fraud or some such then yes there is a story. But it isn’t so perhaps every ones time might be better spent in talking about policies or something like that.
Tim did actually say that he would provide his list of reasons for voting labour ‘at some point’ and this would seem to be the perfect juncture.
365. What the heck is the ‘tweetminster sentiment index’?
367 - just another one of the many delusional comments by Ed West.
290, S&S Now I know you’re just trying to get our Counsin’s all hot and bothered. BUT do you really think we should take statements by Argentinian diplomates and politicos viz-a-viz official US views on the Falklands with a grain of salt? Or rather, a boxcar full of rock salt?
The recent demise of Al “I’m in charge” Haig sparked memories of his dipolomatic overtures during the Falklands War. Now Big Al was NOT my favorite Secretary of State, not by a longshot. BUT he wasn’t quite the Pride of the Pampas as portrayed at the time by the British press.
Speaking of Haig, one interesting facet of his long and checkered career, was his role as a chief flunky for Douglas Macarthur during the Korean War.
At one point during the disaterous Chosen Resevoir campaign, an American army unit was ordered by Dugout Doug’s Tokyo braintrust to proceed ever-farther into the mountains of North Korea, in the general direction of the North Pole. By this point senior Marine commanders were flat-out disobeying these suicidal orders (thank you Jaysus!) but this was really not an option for the relatively junior Army officer (his name was Flaith I think) commanding this hapless unit.
At a critical juncture, Al Haig flew to the Chosen Resevoir in order to “boost morale” by handing out medals like they were holiday bonuses; this was just before a VERY White Christmas; the temperature was lower than a ditchdiggers you-know-what (even lower than Christina D’s rumpus room right now!)
How well did Haig succeed as a morale booster? Not so hot. A number of accounts of the Frozen Chosen report that he pinned a medal on Flaith. And that as soon as Big Al got back in his plane to return for drinks that night on the Ginza, Flaith took of the medal and flung it into the snow.
Of course Haig did better during Wateragate. Except that is for convincing Gerry Ford to pardon Nixon. Which may have been the best thing for the country (Ted Kennedy for one thought so) but was certainly NOT the best thing for Ford.
I’m not being funny, but this forum is becoming like a gaggle of under-21 year old American girls on vacation.
Everyone shouting and screaming at each other with nobody answering any questions.
WHAT TIME ARE TONIGHTS POLLS DUE ???????????????
I think the London marginals will make the difference between a very small Tory majority and a sizeable one. I’m not talking about the easiest targets of course but the second tier of marginals in the capital.
376 - exactly the question I was going to ask.
355. Maybe that’s the answer.
We can’t have retrospective legislation to undo the damage of the nondoms.
But in the future it would be a disgrace for democracy if these spurious “hereditarys” continued to subvert our democracy, through their offspring.
I think I have hit upon Labour’s Election slogan - and their rallying cry:
“Condoms for Nondoms!”
363 Patrick
I can’t see how anyone could be worse than this Govt., in truth if it wasn’t for the act they will kill my kids future, I would like to see them re-elected and drowning in the Maelstrom of their own creation.
363 Patrick
I can’t see how anyone could be worse than this Govt., in truth if it wasn’t for the act they will kill my kids future, I would like to see them re-elected and drowning in the Maelstrom of their own creation.
Milner on!
And now a piece from the Times on Ashcroft:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/ben_macintyre/article7048627.ece
“William Hague hid Lord Ashcroft’s tax status for months”
“Tensions among senior Tories also surfaced in private. One Cameron ally said: “This has not been handled well. We should have confronted Michael Ashcroft. But [Cameron] has been saying everything is OK … that was the assurance given to William Hague. David Cameron has not had time to confront him. He has other things to do. He does not see a great deal of Michael Ashcroft anyway. But, yes, it is a fuck-up.”"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/03/william-hague-lord-ashcroft-tax-status
10 pm is poll time.
Will the Tories still have a poll lead?
374 And an easy line of attack if the Tories do produce a centrist manifesto is to remind the public that the very right-wing,reactionary dog-whistle Tory nmanifesto of 2005 was written by..the very man himself,the MP for Witney.
I can see ‘flip-flopper’ attacks similar to those against Neil Kinnock in 1992,who had shifted from the hard-left to the centre between 1983-92,being used to similar effect in a suprisingly similar scenario ie 13 year old govt against opposition many are not quite sure of
re 382. I’d stick to doctoring StJohn.
2-1! Milner’s the man!
Tedious Gobble cheap and snide
2-1
The keeper’s handling wobblier than Dave’s policies.
10pm
Thank you Mike.
382 - StJohn, what’s a condom?
387 - Ha Ha.
That makes Cameron look tough when he’s chucking snowballs with Carol Vorderman.
Born to Rule
“Perhaps Rod Crosby is Rosenberg.”
I’ve always rather fancied myself as Franz von Papen actually - the machiavellian character who put Hitler in power, dodged the Night of the Long Knives, yet got off scot-free and lived to die in his bed aged 90…
368 jupiter1
When are tonights polls due?
It usually depends on the newsworthiness of the figures and number of Sun or Times editions printed.
If in doubt ask Tim Montgomerie or Peter Kellner.
386 - of the many misleading , biased and stupid articles I have read on the Ashcroft affair this pehaps ranks as one of the very worst. Everything in the Times should be read through the prism that over 10 years ago they got their fingers badly burnt over Ashcroft - they are determined to have their revenge.
For the record i don’t believe Ashcroft has done anything wrong, morally or legally,but I most cetainly do believe the Conservatives should have had this done and dusted years ago.
129 - so good lets post that again
“Am working my way throgh Andrew Rawnsley’s book. Page 56 has some cracking quotes:
“Why can’t he(GB) behave like a human being?” Geoff Hoon
“Don’t you ever f*ckng speak to me like that again!” Tessa Jowell to Gordon Brown after a row about Olympic funding.
“Paul Boateng,Chief Secretary to the Treasury,once burst into tears…because of the relentless briefing against him by Brown’s acolytes. Alan Milburn’s partner Ruth,a psychiatrist,was heard referring to Brown as ‘a psychopath’.”
This is the party that tim spends god knows how many hours and 17,000 posts smearing and sneering for?
oh and lying, musn’t forget timmy boy likes to tell porkies for his beloved (but cant vote for) Labour
389 FWIW I think Cameron will one day regret not taking on the right - maybe not in the near future, but just as Wilson/Callaghan stored up long-term probelms for Labour when they tiptoed around the left in the 1970s Cameron is storing up problems which will one day emerge to weaken and divide his party.
345. You’re a bit agressive tonight Don. I just do what most people do and give my accountant my books and then pay what he and the revenue ask for. I can’t tell you any more than that. It really doesn’t have any bearing on Ashcroft.
343. Seth. Yes. Lord Roger of Old Compton St doesn’t sound too wholesome!
397 - Rod Crosby has a favourite Nazi? Who’da thunk it?
388. Mike Smithson: “Will the Tories still have a poll lead?”
v.funny
BTW, are you allowed to place bets based on the results of embargoed polls?
Looking at the map at the top of the thread, one seat conspicuous by its absence as a Tory gain is Hampstead and Kilburn. Who wins that one?
374. Drivel.
In 1979 the public rejected the failed nostrums of socialism: nationalisation, nuclear disarmament, high taxes, union power, etc etc. They embraced Thatcherite economics - eventually - with real glee. This is why Labour never - at least openly - reversed the Thatcherite reforms.
Blair ’s election - a Tory in charge of the Labour party - put the seal on that deal.
Cameron’s job was different. He led a party that was reviled as sleazy and tired, but whose central political beliefs - on the economy, Europe, immigration, crime - were and are basically popular.
In other words he had to detoxify the brand, but just the brand - cause the underlying product was still desired. Blair had to change the actual product.
I reckon Cameron’s mistake has been going too far. He has tried to bleach the party, not clean it. The bleach is an irritant.
395. TSE. Obviously someting you know nothing about.
The slang term for a condom is an “Ashcroft”. Claims to be a nondom but is actually a “con” dom!
405 - Labour at 5/2.
Great bet
376. More voodoo nonsense trying to make the twatosphere seem important..
397 Rod. Perhaps von Pappen was lucky not to swing(back) on the Nuremburg gallows ??
404. Mike may well do. But there are hundreds of people who have access to this info who could, if they want to, though I doubt it, rush to their accounts.
388 - flaming Ada , Mike - I ndo hope you are just joking. Do you actually know the figures now please?
389 “in a suprisingly similar scenario ie 13 year old govt against opposition many are not quite sure of”
except for Cameron is not a right winger and The tories had not destroyerd the country in 1992
My you gov prediction 36 34 18
407 - Actually condoms do feature in one of the times I personally was in front of a judge.
No your honour, she’s not a prostitute, she is a condom seller, and she was providing me with 3 or 4 free demos, on how to use them.
399. PeterBuss - do you think Michael Ashcroft has kept his word and did not deceive William Hague in the way he secured his peerage?
re 404. The answer to that is no. I gave an assurance to Peter Kellner that I would not do this and that is what I have always done in the past when I have been given embargoed information.
roger, you are busily slagging of Ashcroft for his tax affairs yet you claim to not even have any knowledge of your own tax affairs (apart from employing someone to ensure that you pay the minimum amount that you legally can). Does that not seem just a weeny bit silly to you?
408
5/2? Might risk a billion at those odds
M A (House of Lords) (definitely not in offshore tax haven!)
322 ‘I do believe Labour are in danger of doing a Lettergate on Cashcroft’
Very astute SeanT. This is turning into another ‘plague on all your houses’. Who benefits? ‘Others’. In Labour’s case that’s the BNP.
Judging from OGH’s comments, it’s very doubtful that the tory lead will narrow, in fact I expect we’ll see it increase.
407, SJ - Holy Johnny, is that “con” with a little “c” (as you’ve typed) or a Big “C”?
Methinks either would be appropriate.
182 “And the pound is up I see.”
So only what 7% down against the Zimbabwe dollar now then tim?
Remind us of what your deranged leader said about weak currencies tim
If Labour are going to go on ashcroft money in marginals, time to remind voters of taxpayer money being used by Labour in all seats. Ladies and gentleman I present to you the communcations allowance.
Not a non-doms money but your own money being used to try and influence into voting labour.
419 - not especially - no. It turns on what is defined as permanent residence.He cleared it with the cabinet office for goodness sake.Its all a load of diversionary twaddle but no doubt so good is the Labour spin machine that it will damage the Tories. But there we are.
420. Thanks Mike.
Ashgate saga rumbles on, looks bad for little William now.
I understand that the daily poll might continue in some form after the election.
424- Blimey Gabble Expectations management thats not normally your style….
427 - I’m having a little look at that myself. I’m going to need helpers and a big spreadsheet, but the amount of CA being used by Labour MPs in marginals appears to be significantly more than both Tories and Lib Dems - both in total (obviousluy) and per person.
430 tim’s homunculus has joined the party.
Scotland win.
424 Gabble
I heard that Lord Ashcroft was buying up a few undecideds this afternoon, so you may be right.
Stuart Wheeler is also rumoured to have given Farage the funds to buy Belgium.
I was reading the Evening Standard tonight on the journey home. Very disappointed to see the story on Michael Foot’s sad passing mention that Paul Foot was his ’son’. At least they remembered he used to edit the paper!
Re: Fritz von Papen, he did get your (Brit) goat as ambassador to Turkey during WWII - the Cicero spy caper, which (if I remember rightly) wasn’t revealed until after the war.
And even even paid off Cicero (valet to the British ambassador) in counterfit money!
418. TSE. I will bookmark that post for the eaglets!
Cultural and family reference stuff.
strange we havent had any tweets or tw*ts this evening on the YouGov poll. Charlie Whelan obviously has the finger version of laryngitis this evening.
Re 431 So the Sun intends to make the political circus even more ridiculous then.
428 The point is Daves ‘honest and transparent’ branding has been severely tarnished by this whole Ashcroft saga.
I wonder how many tens of millions Paul and Cohen avoided paying as non-doms? 150 million. 200 million?
438 - I’m dreading the day my wife (and kids) decide to go through pb archives.
432. timmo
OGH posted this on Twitter:
“Tonight’s daily poll from YouGov for the Sun will be published on PB at 10pm. Will the Tory lead by up or down?”
So, there will be a tory lead, which makes his post at 391:
“Will the Tories still have a poll lead?”
…a little puzzling.
424. Gabble. Do you mean his posts sound uncharacteristically jaunty?
419 - I would go further and say that really the pressure is on Haguerather than Ashcroft. The form of words Hague used was that Ashcrofts tax affairs were “in order”.Of course ,so they are, but Hague would never go further than that phrase. If he really had believed that Ashcroft had promised that he would pay UK tax on all his earnings and this was a condition of his peerage(why it should be beggars belief as so many other non doms are in Ashcrofts position)then surely he would have said that. But to my knowledge (and I stand to be corrected) Hague never did.
RE 443. For a small consideration I could delete some posts.
re 391 Mike is that a leading question?
Yay Ingerrrr-lund. Credible performance against a nifty Egpytian team. Splendidly deft equalising goal by Crouch.
Sterling falls below $1.51.
Was it YouGov wot did it again?
413, Jack W - very good!
Lord Cashcroft is the Victor Kiam of the Tory Party.
431. Have The Sun/YouGov found a new and cheaper way of doing polls? I understand it is quite expensive to commission a nationwide political opinion poll, so a Daily Tracker must be seriously costly, over time.
And newspapers are not exactly rolling in it, at the mo.
Curious.
447 - Very tempting offer.
I think England won 3-1 but I’ll probably have changed my mind by tomorrow.
D C
Hague spanking Harman (she secretly enjoyed it
) at PMQs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsA5lqmgMA
449. Yeah much improved second half.
Still much more to do. Defence still shaky at times. Milner is a big plus, should be on the plane.
447, OGH - aren’t you forgetting Shady’s secret archives?
MikeSmithsonPB
Tories back to 6% lead in the daily poll. LDs move up 3 to 19%
Increased lead then 38 32 18 i think.
Gabble you guessed right well done
SSI. I meant “con-dom” - but you’re right. Ashcroft could be a dubious “Con Dom”.
Part 2 here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYUcBBH4TMA
PeterBuss - have you read the letters linked to this Guardian piece:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/02/honours-committee-ashcroft-tax-assurances
452. What a highly successful man who worked his way to wealth from being a field salesperson?
464 he likes the Tory Party so much he bought the Party. Further revelations in the Guardian… Hague pleaded with Blair not to stand in way of peerage, then enjoyed hospitality courtesy of former tax exile..oh dear..
Labour at 5/2.
Great bet
by tim March 3rd, 2010 at 9:42 pm
How much are you having on then?, or you doing a Brown?
Shouldn’t Finchley and Golders Green be included as a Con gain?