Could the weekend polls change this?
February 6th, 2010The chart above is from the Betfair line market where punters have bets at evens with each other on what the parties will get at the coming election. Once you get used to how it works it’s quite a neat form of betting.
As can be seen the past three months have not shown much movement apart from the Tory wobble in the past week following the spate of polls having both them and Labour in the 30s.
The next polls up should be ICM (I’m hoping for one in the Sunday Telegraph overnight) and Populus in the Times on Monday evening. The last surveys from both of these had Labour in the 20s and the Tories in the 40s. Will that still pertain?
There might also be other surveys overnight.
Mike Smithson
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not first but worth unlurking in case
1st
I’m getting used to the SPIN concept and like the idea of trading. If Labour don’t take a hit from yesterday I’ll be amazed. When expenses first hit Labour suffered most. When Gordon had to write that big cheque, Labour got hit again.
well bugger me.
the sad thing is my US based company has blocked the chart as unsuitable for viewing, will go and kick the wife off her laptop.
Truly intuitive colouring going on there….
2 The polling could have occured before the news.
Couple of articles one in the guardian one independent about tory wobble, now this could be true but strange how both came out after brown got a good kicking in PMQs on weds and labour came of worse in expenses !! Are the lefties getting worried cameron will carry one scoring points of brown at PMQs and are trying to cause a wobble where there isnt one ?
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-for-the-first-time-the-tories-are-worried-ndash-and-with-good-reason-1890902.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/05/conservatives-david-cameron-economy
That is a very dull graph
re 5. Exactly - that’s the point
My prediction?
ICM will put the Tories below 40 (for the first time in ages) and the lead below.
And yes it will move the markets
Mike, Do insider dealing rule apply to you and others in the industry, given you often have advance knowledge of embargoed polls?
Have you got news on the gapevine about the polls then Mike !
Not sure that expenses will affect these polls that much.Seems pretty much a public mood of a plague on all your houses unlike for example 97 when my lot got hammered for sleeze.
I would like to think it mught be different but apart from a geat PMQ’s for David Cameron which doesn’t anyway influence the polls I can’t see anything thats happened which will have caused the Conservatives to widen the lead - sadly! From a Labour perspective it might just be that Brown will get a bounce opve the N.I deal - although in my view he was foolish in the exteme to start talking about “end of chapter” stuff as it could only too easily all unravel.As a Tory I would just be happy to see us in the 40pt range!
What’s all this c##p about?
“My pal Graham Sharpe from William Hill contacts me again. Money piling on to Boris to replace ‘vulnerable’ Cam. Hague still favourite” - Charlie Whelan Tw@tter
10 - Oracle, It’s spin galore. That’s all. Ignore Whelan as he is just trying to create a “narrative”. I suspect we might have a +9 lead with ICM…
Mike S - we urgently need an AR poll.
AR is by far the most consistent poll so the next AR poll will be the best guide of the extent to which there has been movement.
It doesn’t matter what views are on whether AR overstates the Con lead - what matters is the magnitude of any lead change reported by AR.
What are the similarities between dealing with Lord Mandelson and eating too many sweets? They both leave you needing root canal surgery, according to the chief executive of Kraft Foods, the new owner of Cadbury.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/7167243/Kraft-chief-Rosenfeld-quips-that-dealing-with-Mandelson-is-like-having-root-canal-surgery.html
It’s impossible for Johnson to replace Cameron in the next few years so who on earth would be betting on this?
If (hypothetically) Cameron did disastrously at the GE he would be replaced before Johnson could become an MP.
240. They’re North Dakota, Arkansas and Nevada respectively.
Crist is obviously toast in a GOP primary, but I think it fairly likely he’ll run as a Democrat, or a Democrat-supported Independent. Usually moderates under pressure from the extreme flank who don’t want to sell-out their principles try to built support among the base by bashing the other party. Crist quite conspicuously hasn’t done this, and is even meeting with Obama again. The groundwork has been set and if it happens Crist could be a thorn in the GOP’s side for a long time.
247. Whatever happens on healthcare, conservatives are energised and conservative-leaners have defected from the Obama coalition. But if healthcare doesn’t pass then liberals will stay at home, truly making it a perfect storm. Passing it will energise his own base.
As for the economy, you won’t find a single serious economist who won’t accept the stimulus hasn’t saved jobs. The jobless numbers went so hide because the global recession was much worse than anyone expected. However, I do accept this hasn’t filtered through into the popular conscious. In terms of the stimulus, the overall label is considered unpopular, but the breakdown parts are actually quite popular. In the same way as healthcare, its the messaging the Democrats have been bad on, being too busy squabbling among themselves when they need a united front to dispel the GOP narrative.
As for working with Republicans - it’s just not going to happen. The GOP has made it quite clear that they’re not willing to compromise on anything unless Obama actually adopts a right-wing agenda. Bush never needed to really compromise with Democrats despite smaller majorities. This process stuff doesn’t matter, what matters is actual policy being enacted and good messaging about why the policy is good.
Mike - do you refer to the LibDems as “Democrats” to compensate for Gordon Brown always calling them “Liberals”?
Burnley winning at home.
“Hague still favourite”
I love that joke
From the Grice article
It gets worse. Even the £1bn or so was called into question by the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has downgraded its estimates of how much the Tories would save by restricting tax credits from £400m, saying the Treasury’s £45m estimate is “more accurate”. So either the Tories have a hole in their spending plans or they would have to remove tax credits from households earning more than £31,000 rather than the £50,000 they have announced.
True, it is only one item, but it hardly inspires confidence. Labour would have been shredded by the Tory-dominated media if such a flaw had been exposed while it was in opposition. “It’s a shambles,” one Tory frontbencher told me.
Yep, its a shambles.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/04/science/earth/04climate.html
Surprised we ended up with any MP’s charged…
MPs’ expenses: police inquiry led by Cressida Dick
The Scotland Yard expenses investigation has been overseen by Cressida Dick, the police chief who ran the operation which led to the killing of the innocent Jean Charles de Menezes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/7166878/MPs-expenses-police-inquiry-led-by-Cressida-Dick.html
Hehe,
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01570/0302-MATT-web_1570779a.gif
I think there will be (temporary) movement away from the Tories.
Despite Cameron getting his mojo back at PMQs the media narrative has still been fairly anti-Tory over the last week.
Also the fundamenta1s of the Tory position are a bit weak after the flipfl0ops. They need consistency and a harder hitting negative campaign.
19. Any chance she is chasing the innocent whilst the guilty ones slink away?
I think there will be (temporary) movement away from the Tories.
Despite Cameron getting his mojo back at PMQs the media narrative has still been fairly anti-Tory over the last week.
Also the fundamenta1s of the Tory position are a bit weak after the flipflops. They need consistency and a harder hitting negative campaign.
One of the many old-fashioned touches about the House of Commons is the row of three Commons clerks who are always there during Prime Minister’s Questions, seated in wigs and gowns in front of the Speaker.
On the table in front of them, there are inkwells. Could this be the last workplace in Britain with inkwells? But I hear that the clerks have been fighting one another recently to avoid having to sit on the right, nearest to Gordon Brown. When the Prime Minister is agitated, he has a way of slamming his documents on to the table, making the inkwells jump, spraying little spots of ink on to the shirt of the nearest clerk. Messy.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/village-people-06022010-1890903.html
and also from link at 22,
Oh god nooooo,
“Sion Simon, below, who recites poetry from memory, announced this week he is ending his none-too-happy eight-year stint as Labour MP for Birmingham Erdington, creating a possible opening for Jack Dromey, AKA Mr Harriet Harman. “
Dave spanks bishop and spills votes.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2010/02/no-mr-cameron.html
harder hitting negative campaign.
Its been quite effective so far.
Oh I see, you mean attacking Labour.
Afternoon from Ladbrokes HQ.
For anyone who didn’t already know, we finished pricing up all 632 GB constituencies yesterday and they are all now up on our site.
We’re working on a little formula which produces seat totals for each party derived from the individual constituency odds and will update every time the price changes in any seat. At the moment, it looks like it will be showing a very small Tory majority, which surprised me somewhat given that I thought I’d been on the bullish side with Conservative chances. Still tweaking the calculation though, as I think it slightly overstates the LD totals.
Of the 632 seats, we’d classify 224 as totally safe - ones where the favourites are 1/100 or shorter. They break down as:
150 Cons
70 Lab
2 LD
2 PC
26 - Do you fancy doing a Next Home Secretary market?
Also.
Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. general election is increasingly likely to produce a hung parliament, where no party has a clear majority, British bookmaker William Hill Plc said.
The odds being offered on that outcome have shortened to 2- 1 from 5-1, meaning a one pound ($1.56) bet would win two pounds, the U.K.’s second-largest bookmaker said in an e-mailed statement.
“What was once regarded as very unlikely with the Tories steaming ahead in the polls has now become the favored bet on the election,” spokesman Graham Sharpe said in the stateme
I think someone has just seen a poll due later tonight. Labour most seats backed as low as 4.3 (probably only for pennies)! Was 7.6 earlier this afternoon.
Sorry 4.2 was the last backed odds.
re 27. I’ve just closed down my hung parliament positions on Betfair.
There’s something in the pipeline that puts that into a new perspective. Can’t say much at the moment but it’s not a poll.
23 Bet Harriet won’t be arguing for all woman shortlists for a while…….
27 Tim…Sharpe does have a way with words.”the favored bet” but a loser!
30 - Ohhhhhhhhh Mike you are such a tease….
Mike what were your hung paliament positions?
30-When will we know?
30 Mike Smithson
Can we have at least have a timeline? How long is a piece of pipeline?
30. Is it something in tomorrows papers?
29 Budgie…whoever took 4.2 Labour to win most seats is a fool.the bookmakers bet 6/1 and bigger.
Mike.
Were you laying a hung Parliament or backing one?
27 — so why Will is still allowing only very small bets on Con Overall Maj?
38 Agreed graham, same person probably layed out conservatives as largest Party at 1.31. Normality returned now.
246. Shocked to learn that Hertford & Stortford has been classed as a ‘totally safe’ Conservative seat! I can see the historic rationale, but I think you have the Labour (25-1) and Lib Dem (100-1) odds the wrong way around…
Are there any plans to introduce markets for 2nd place finishes in certain seats?
*Anecdotal canvassing alert - real lack of warmth towards the Cameron project in a traditionally strong Conservative area today. Real perception that in accordance with the desire for change, the Lib Dems deserve a fair hearing.*
I wonder whether the Conservatives may have peaked in certain parts of the country? I fully expect the Ashcroft money to pay dividends in a host of Lab/Con marginals, but wonder if the so called ‘core vote’ are becoming disillusioned by the increasingly confused Cameroon agenda. Add in the impact of the expenses saga and you might yet see some anamolous results in ’safe’ blue seats…
Burnley now 2 up
I missed that move on ‘Most Seats’. 80% chance it was a rick or a rogue. In other words I don’t think it was a serious bet from a serious person.
Prices got matched down to 4.2 LAB.
Regarding Party Seats Line, the action there has been genuine this week but most of the time it is very weak and the Spread is wide ……except on The Democrats !
re 39 I was backing a HP - now closed it down at a profit.
lol @ Mike posts a teaser and then concentrates n the footie..
Re : hung parliament
In practice, at least five seats (possibly six) will be won by Sinn fFein, who then don’t take their seats so the number of seats Cameron needs to have a functional majority rather than an absolute one is reduced accordingly. In addition, at least some Ulster seats will be won by Unionists who will be de facto conservatives.
What would be a clincher (may I guess that this is Mike Smithson’s info) would be a formal announcement of some joint Conservative-UUP candidates. If there were say six of these, it would give six more Tories and six fewer others
20. ” Any chance she is chasing the innocent whilst the guilty ones slink away?” Can’t see too many of the fat cats jumping over any underground barriers! What depresses me is that these four fall-guys are being used as scapegoates by the scores of mortgage flippers of ’second homes’, all of whom are grasping immoral cowards - but of course were within the disgraceful rules.
17
Socrates, that NYT article you link contains a number of clear factual errors. Most importantly the enquiry did not clear Mann of all four charges. On the fourth charge they stated:
“Decision 4. Given that information emerged in the form of the emails purloined from CRU in November 2009, which have raised questions in the public’s mind about Dr. Mann’s conduct of his research activity, given that this may be undermining confidence in his findings as a scientist, and given that it may be undermining public trust in science in general and climate science specifically, the inquiry committee believes an investigatory committee of faculty peers from diverse fields should be constituted under RA-10 to further consider this allegation.”
So they have not cleared Mann at all. What they have said is that they do not, as a general board of enquiry have the expertise to determine whether he is guilty of improper conduct as asserted in the charge :
“(4) failure to comply with other applicable legal requirements governing research or other scholarly activities”
and as a result they are convening a specialist panel to look at this.
And I’m watching it live for free on my lap-top.
44. My thinking too URW, but looking at the lay of the Conservatives in that market it would appear that there was about 18k layed in one hit.. the largest bet so far placed in that particular market. Diffuclt to see what price the bulk of that was layed at, but I would guess mostly 1.17 and 1.18.
Expensive rick.
I got a great HP bet a few days ago, 3/1 on No Conservative Majority with Paddy Power. Now 5/2 which is still the best odds out there.
Any Con-UUP lnk is likely to cause a few headaches for punters and bookmakers alike. I don’t really think they should be included for Conservative seat total markets, but if the media count them and include them for majority purposes, it’s going to be a pain.
“What would be a clincher (may I guess that this is Mike Smithson’s info) would be a formal announcement of some joint Conservative-UUP candidates. If there were say six of these, it would give six more Tories and six fewer others”
The Conservatives would have to have joint candidates with the UUP AND DUP for this to be relevant.
I think Mike has heard something far more relevant to the chances of a Conservative majority ie a bad story abour to break for Labour.
17/49
And one further point on that report Socrates. If you actually read it you will see that it consisted of the committee going to visit Mann and asking him if he had done anything wrong as far as the first 3 charges were concerned. When he said no they accepted that and did not conduct any further interviews with anyone outside of the university. Hardly an in depth investigation.
43 - It is rare that I can write this: Stoke are tearing Blackburn apart… 3-0 with Blackburn now down to 10 men…
Andrew Lewin:
“I wonder whether the Conservatives may have peaked in certain parts of the country? I fully expect the Ashcroft money to pay dividends in a host of Lab/Con marginals, but wonder if the so called ‘core vote’ are becoming disillusioned by the increasingly confused Cameroon agenda. Add in the impact of the expenses saga and you might yet see some anamolous results in ’safe’ blue seats…”
The Conservative core vote will vote where it matters which is why the swing will be greatest in the marginal seats but expect UKIP to do well in safe Conservative seats.
30 - Mike …
Please don’t say things like that …. when will this ‘news’ be revealed??
In your opinion, are you saying there 1) will be a hung parliament, 2) there will be a Tory win?
42 I think the Conservatives can afford to underperform in Hertford & Stortford. Your experience seems to be consisent with the MORI aggregate results.
If Brown is proved to be at blame at the Iraq enquiry for not giving more money to the troops etc , the growth figures are less than the 0.05% from the last figurers, he has a poor showing in the TV debates, or Spain and Portugal go over the edge with Greece.
If all those things happen Labour could well come down to 25%.
I think it must be a good bet one or two of them will happen, so Labour will be lucky to reach 30%
I wonder if it is more revelations from Andrew Rawnsley’s book, or a follow up on last weeks allegations? Can’t imagine it would be hard to find the staff members in question, probably a damn sight easier than locating Gordo’s cleaner!
re 58. Sorry to tease but I’m hoping we’ll get something up by Monday.
It’s an extraordinary guest slot from a professional statistician who has done an exhaustive examination of the UNS.
Hopefully it will be ready by Monday
55 And the report contains this gem:
“The e-mail messages also contained suggestions that Dr. Mann had hidden or destroyed e-mail messages and other information relating to a United Nations climate change report to prevent other scientists from reviewing them. Dr. Mann produced the material in question, and the Pennsylvania State board cleared him of the charge.”
Difficult to see how “producing” something clears you of a charge of having hidden it. The concept of retrieving something from its hiding place obviously has yet to reach Pennsylvania.
If I am ever seriously suspected of malpractice, I hope I get these guys investigating me.
I foresee RodC getting very cross.
Completely off topic but WOW
Archaeologists in China say they have discovered more than 3,000 dinosaur footprints, all facing the same way.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8502076.stm
62. I can hear Rod sharpening his knife as we speak!
Andrew Lewin. Good to hear some reports form the ground and I look forward to a rush of money for the LDs to secure a famous win in Hertford
If that doesn’t count as a safe seat though, we’re in for a few shocks. I wouldn’t be that surprised if you finished second and I don’t think you should take our outright odds to mean that we don’t think you will. The idea of betting on second place in some seats isn’t a bad one, although I don’t fancy our chances of making any money on it.
62 - sounds like a scoop for pb.com Mike. I’m looking forward to it.
I hate all these hints.
So, sounds like a stake through the heart of “swingback”. And a clip full of silver bullets fired into it, just to be sure….
If it is about how votes convert to seats consider this (a point I’ve made a while ago and which was largely ignored):
1) In the last 80 years a Party has never had a lead of 6% and not got a majority.
2) The above doesn’t mean it can’t happen. But it seems unlikely bearing in mind the next GE will be fought on the fairest boundaries in history.
3) I know about 1992 but that was on very unfair boundaries.
4) Forget doing detailed swing calculations - just think about it from a common sense point of view. With the fairest boundaries ever WHY should votes suddenly stack up in a geographical way that they never have before?
Sajid Javid selected in Bromsgrove by the Tories
Cracking result for Hull….
45 “I was backing a HP - now closed it down at a profit.”
By saying this, Mike has clearly decided that a hung Parliament is unlikely and that he has reached this decision not based on any polling evidence. Given that it is far more likely that the Tory party will win an overall majority than Labour, one has to believe that whatever news has reached him, it involves very bad news for Labour, since nothing short of catastrophically bad news for the Tories would actually make a hung parliament MORE likely, not less.
So what could it be - perhaps a senior Cabinet resignation(s), or some very bad stuff from the Rawnsley book, an endorsement for the Tories from Blair , an upwardly revised VIPA forecast, Rod finally conceding that he was wrong about swingback? Who can say, but I feel sure we’ll know soon.
Tim, thanks for the message - was this the post of Mike’s you were referring to?
Oh god, tomorrow’s Rant on Sunday has a serialisation of Pauline Prescott’s autobiography.
@67 Sounds fair to me Shadsy, I’m very busy but will try and occasionally post reports from the ground here on PB. I’d like to keep working away under the radar for now, but perhaps you will see a shift a rush to the yellows as we approach May : )
I will not bet on anything election related, but as I occasionally have a flutter on football and cricket it’s strange to think that one of the unlikely consequences of being a PPC is that there is a betting market on you! Do you expect much action on the individual seats market?
Hmmm
http://twitter.com/charliewhelan/status/8728299100
It wouldn’t be the first time Mike has punted on embargoed information. Not that we are in a financial services type situation, but it does give him a fair old advantage over the rest of us punters, so good luck to him
Well done Palace
Happy days for OGH. Blackburn have been defeated 3-0, Burnley win 2-1.
Liverpool now clear favourites for 4th place.
Man City available at 3.0 (ie 2-1) - looks generous.
77 - Given it is Whelan, that could easily mean another 9 point lead! 39/30….
75. “unday has a serialisation of Pauline Prescott’s autobiography.”
is there a publisher out there interested in Pauline Prescott’s life???
75 Should be fun - Revenge; A dish best served cold (with chipolatas)
Grim day for the Hammers though… I think Patrick may be needing some love!
47. “What would be a clincher (may I guess that this is Mike Smithson’s info) would be a formal announcement of some joint Conservative-UUP candidates. If there were say six of these, it would give six more Tories and six fewer others”
I sometimes wonder if the reality of the Conservative/UUP deal has sunk in yet. Unless that deal breaks down or the terms of it are altered to accommodate a side-deal with the DUP (increasingly unlikely) there will be joint Conservative/UUP candidates in all eighteen NI seats. That’s been known about for ages.
I would imagine the broadcasters will go back to doing what they did up to and including the 1970 election, which is include the UUP seats in the Tory column. If they don’t, they’re making a mistake, because UUP MPs (if any are elected) will be full members of the Tory parliamentary party - in complete contrast, dare I say, to the nominal links between Labour and the SDLP.
83 Is there a reader out there interested in Pauline Prescott’s life???
86 It is certainly going to require some clarification from the bookies…
77 Charlie has blocked me on Twitter doesn’t seem to like sarcastic replies to his spin!
76 Andrew, yes we’ve been pretty pleased with the action so far on our seat markets. I wouldn’t really expect to take much on the “safe” ones, although lots of candidates have backed themselves, especially the indies.
A few people have been backing the LDs to win Merthyr Tydfill in Labour’s 15th safest seat. Looks impossible, but no doubt there will be one or two shock results that will cost us a few quid.
74 - pfp see Mike’s follow up post @ 62.
47. Just be aware that any UUP/Tory move will possibly have minus one against it before it starts. Sylvia Hermon in North Down is ready to go independent and the garden centre Prods in that constituency like mavericks.
If you want to look to NI as a possible source of significance, look to the DUP. I have long said on here would likely tilt to Tory support when it comes to tight parliamentary arithemtic.
The DUP vote for the anti-terrorist legislation that so had some rabid Tories on here muttering of dark revenge (like as if we in NI dont knwow all about proper forms of revenge), was a tactical choice. The Unionists owe this government very little.
There are maybe 3 seats in NI that I can think of that might posibly change hands in a sectarian headcount vote, one DUP to SF, one SDLP to Unionist, one SF to Unionist. On current form chances of them doing so are possibles not probables. Within each community is a bit more interesting.
I’m sure whatever this very interesting sounding guest post says, the MSM will still be repeating that Blair was ahead by 20+% in the lead up to 97 and the the Tories need to be “insert very large number” ahead in the national opinion polls to get a small majority.
In Hertford and Storeford Con win in 2005 by 13,000, 26.4% lead over Labour, Lib Dems in 3rd 16,000 behind 32.1%.
No way will the Lib/Dems win this.
77. Between Whelan and that blabbermouth Henry Macrory the newspapers who commision these polls must get very fed up at the results keep being leaked by Twits!
95 - I have noticed that Macrory hasn’t been tw@ttering the results in advantage for a number of weeks. Now that might be because the Tories aren’t doing so well or that the newspapers / polling companies have got fed up with him and stop telling him.
*** Betting Post (kind of) ***
A gem from the Intrade Forum, about the US Mid-Terms :
I see an anti-establishment movement towards “fresh” new blood in national politics. Devoted “right” and “left” aside, the people in the middle are completely disgusted with the arrogance, back biting and “questionable” decisions made by incumbants. They want more than negative ads and partisan bickering. The voters are about to flush the toilet that is Washington.
Obama tapped into the early aspect of this movement with his “hope and change” and “transparency” promises. But, his idea of change was NOT what the voters expected and his idea of transparency has not been true transparency.
Palin was a crowd draw and rallied the base because she was a fresh face, plain spoken and could be associated with people known in everyday life that gets things done.
Scott Brown had a message on issues and from what I understand, did very little negative ads. He was a “fresh face” that people could identify with and support..hoping he could make a difference in the barrel of snakes that occupy Washington.
I am taking all my available trading funds and will be investing in long shot “fresh” faces in national politics. Any incumbant will be vulnerable, including Obama in 2012
Dead on the money, right?
77 It doesn’t sound like much of an exclusive. Clearly, he doesn’t have the actual figures
98 - Not so sure about that, this seems to be his standard MO with regards good polls for Labour.
@99: I think it is his standard response for any poll. And quite cunning it is too. You get a few hours of “things getting better for Labour” positive spin, regardless of the actual numbers.
77 - Nothing is “confirmed” at this stage. It is confirmed when the votes are counted. I all suppose it depends where the changes are: If it is Tory down then they may be having difficulties selling their policies. If it is Labour up, then it may be movement from Others or LibDems.
In any event, most of the poll numbers will have come in pre the charges on expenses.
26.
bad news for tim…
Shadsy has Chris Grayling 500:1 on to win his seat in Epsom & Ewell
I am out for the evening. Need to get my gladrags on because I’ve a long way to go.
Have a good night all.
The Conservatives haven’t had a lead under 9% with ICM since the poll from December 2008 where hey got just 5%.
O/T - Police are reporting a “Major Incident” in the Blackburn end today at the Britannia. Reports of a possible death.
Totally OT.
Can anyone vouch for good quality hotels in the Washington DC, Arlington or Alexandria areas?
Another major “mistake” in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report has been identified, easily of the same magnitude of the “Glaciergate” error. A lead IPCC author of the report has admitted that he cannot find any supporting evidence for the claim made.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/02/breaking-news.html
Just remember folks,while Mike Smithson spends months talking up a Conservative landslide, he betting on a hung parliament. I think that is all you need to know…
108 - Thats excellent news.
The damage he inflicts on the Tory Party is unrivalled at the moment.
We seem to have seriously conflicting steers on PB this evening!
On the one hand Mike has sold his Hung Parliament position. Should his Monday guest believes that Labour is set to win an overall majority, this would involve the Tories winning fewer than approximately 240 seats, with the LibDems and others expected to win around 85 seats and Labour the remaining 325 seats. That would be more than 100 seats fewer than the betting markets are currently expecting!
On the other hand rumour has it that ICM’s poll this evening is pointing towards a hung parliament.
Quite extraordinary, one way or the other.
115 - You’re too modest, tim.
you may specualte all we like but its the GE that counts besides, i hate rumour mongering when it comes to polls. We’ve had that before when people were ramping the, its a small lead, then lo and behold it isnt.
Lets just wait and see.
Isn’t Patrick Hennessey, the Etonian Political Editor of the Labourgraph, a close buddy of Whelan? So I think he’s pretty accurate. My guess is a Tory lead of 7-8%.
116, Add into the mix the rather bizarre betting on the largest Party market on Betfair an hour or so ago and it is even more conflicting. About 18k of matched bets taking the Conservatives out to 1.31 briefly from 1.15.
116. I somehow doubt they’ll suggest a Labour win with them at least 8 points behind in the polls.
119 - Yes, and of Gordo. 8% lead, 39/31, would be entirely consistent with Whelan’s tw@tter and recent polls.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/two-labour-gains-and-ukip-second-place-surge-1890387.html
Thursday’s LG by-election results.
112 - depends on your budget.
The Willard is good - Lincoln stayed there between election and inauguration, but is not a bargain - these days it’s an Intercontinental. The Hay Adams is also good. Marriotts are usually good - J W Marriott’s in particular.
Therese Coffey selected as new Tory PPC for Suffolk Coastal
I was rooting for Hugo de Burgh!
117 - I do my best but the big lad from Epsom has a height and reach advantage.
He rains down a fearsome array of blows on himself.
Did you take the 12/1 on Ferdinand by the way?
William Hill publish Stirling prices: pretty attractive if you are bullish on the Scottish Tories (I am not).
Bookies’ best prices - Stirling (Anne McGuire, Lab maj over Con = 4,767)
Con 6/4 WH
Lab 6/4 Lad
SNP 11/4 WH
LD 25/1
Whelan’s latest tweet moves from the interrogatve: “Will the Tories be below 40?” to the statement: “Tomorrow’s ICM poll will show a hung parliament”.
However, Whelan appears to be the only primary twitter source on the ICM poll.
“Tomorrow’s ICM poll will show a hung parliament.”
Goodo. If el Torees can’t get a big enough lead to tempt whistle blowers out of the woodwork to explain how the crime and immigration stats have been rigged for years then the second best option is the apparent liklihood of a hung parliament and an early gilt strike.
Without being too specific (trying to keep my New Year resolution), our canvass data has been pretty consistently good for the last 10 days, and there is no detectable effect on voting intentions from the expenses data (have others found anything different?). It hasn’t been different in the last few days, though, so I’d guess a lead of 7-8 as per other polls sounds plausible. But if it’s ICM, the temple at which this site worships
:-), there may be a betting impact.
I will say that the mood is still morose in DE areas, where people are still cheesed off and choosing between perceived evils, but the New Labour coalition seems to be reforming in the more prosperous wards.
Incidentally, some pb contributors have said they’ll come up and help near the election - if others who are not committed to other parties would enjoy it (meet real live Conservatives for Palmer!) let me know.
65, Can you explain why Spain/Portugual getting the same problems as Greece looks bad on Brown? If anything, surely it underlines how relatively more secure the UK economy is than various others in Europe, despite the hyperbole from the Conservatives in recent weeks.
The main news narrative next week will be market pressure on ClubMed deficits coinciding with the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Summit in Nunavut Canada.
For those wanting to picture just how icy the prospects are, then our very own Merv will show them.
Perhaps Mike S closed his hung parliament position when he tried to extract Euros from his Greek bank account.
The ICM poll today, whatever it predicts, will have minimal effect on the GE betting markets. Our eyes should instead be fixed on the financial markets.
130 corrected link
http://arctic.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2010/02/06/g-7-finance-ministers-meet-in-iqaluit/
I rarely seem to be able to get embedded links to work. Am I missing a trick?
bbc r4 news clegg n cam putting boot in over parliamentary privilege defence. camo to make a speech on monday. gord must be pleased.
Cameron also claiming Gordo has delayed a debate on select committee suggestions on reforming parliamentary processes, including lessening power of the whips.
What was that about Gordo and roadblocks again?
S’funny I’m not seeing Whelan’s update tweet.
134 Kristin
I am searching on “ICM Poll” and it is second on a quick changing list.
First is from an excitable Frenchman who asks: “Parlement bloqué en GB?”.
All we need now is a Polish plumber.
Remember 40 31 20 is a “hung parliament” via electoral caluculus…
Remember 40 31 20 is a “hung parliament” via electoral caluculus…
123. I’ll do luxury if its the real deal, Tim. One of the others on the trip has their focus on Alexandria which looks ok but part of me isnt sure. Being American they think its quaint and ye oldie but I get that on a 15 minute drive tour of Belfast.
My suspicion is that Messrs. Darling and King’s trip to Nunavut will turn out to be much more expensive than expected. And I am not referring to carbon emissions.
Where’s Tapestry when we need him to explain the obligations of the Lisbon Treaty?
135 thanks Seth, that isn’t Whelan’s tweet, it’s politicshomeuk’s interpretation his other one passed on by french fella.
135 thanks Seth, that isn’t Whelan’s tweet, it’s politicshomeuk’s interpretation of his other one passed on by french fella.
oops :blush:
John Terry isn’t a patch on this man,
Jacob Zuma ‘deeply regrets pain’ over love-child
South African President Jacob Zuma has apologised for fathering an illegitimate son. The baby girl was born last year to the daughter of a football executive.
Mr Zuma, aged 67, is a Zulu, a group which practises polygamy. He has three wives and at least 19 children.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/8502229.stm
Seth - I think nothing would effect the market more than a poll showing that the Uk was not heading for a Con majority.
A hung parliament in this economic phase would be a disaster..
132.The news that Clegg is going to back Brown and Labour on this AV vote is a political mistake from a Scottish point of view IMHO. Just remember how many seats the Libdems are currently defending up here. The campaign leaflets are just going to write themselves.
We already have four elections, its turning into an annual quango fest to be honest. And they all have differing voting systems too.
You just have to go back the disasterous 2007 elections and the amount of spoilt ballot papers. It does look a cynical and grubby move by Brown, and for Clegg to say that and then decide to vote with him after the way they both behaved over the Lisbon Treaty is really poor politics.
Clegg could have taken a ‘principled stand’ over the issue next week, it would have gained him valuable publicity for his own party’s favoured system. By abstaining or voting against this grubby and cynical PR move, he could have remained on the right side of the argument. As it is, he will be defending Gordon Brown’s position both in the vote and in the media narrative. I have genuinely been surprised at his decision.
140 Kristin
You are right. My apologies.
Whelan’s original and so far only tweet is: “EXCLUSIVE New ICM poll in sun tel thought to confirm hung parliament. Will Tories be below 40?”
The embattled head of the United Nations’ climate change panel clocked up more than half a million miles of air travel in a year and a half
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/7165816/Rajendra-Pachauri-head-of-UN-climate-change-panel-clocks-up-half-a-million-miles-of-air-travel.html
I bet he has some serious frequent flyer points!
134
http://twitter.com/charliewhelan/statuses/8728299100
Is this it?
144
Why? we don’t know what could develop may be the kick up the arse the political system needs.
O/T
Just got back from India this morning after a two week sojourn. Heat a little too stifling - nice to feel the cold again
It seems all my extended family over there have turned into David Camerons - “Why aren’t you married yet, Sunil?”
EXCLUSIVE
GORDON Brown is planning to sell Britain’s busiest port … to the French!
The port of Dover, which nestles beneath its famous white cliffs, is being flogged off by the government in a desperate bid to raise some cash.
After resisting the Germans during World War Two and the French under Napoleon, Gordon Brown has given in and plans to flog the port to the French
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/02/brown-to-sell-port-of-dover-to-the-french.html
I’m surprised no Tories think the lead will rise given Camerons high media profile recently.
Just to let you all know Martin Day broke his wrist last week.
137. Its also probably bunkum.
150 - Gordon Brown really is the equivalent of a drug addict pleading to suck your c**k for a fiver, just so he can raise some cash for his next fix.
152 - That particular bone was long odds on.
152.
Prompts the obvious question, which one and is he right-handed?
152
And they say there’s no power in prayer, what do they know.
150 - is that so they can widen the entrance ?
149 - lucky you aren’t there all the time Sunil. Was working in our Delhi office for a month a couple of years ago and went to dinner with our local CEO plus the MD of one of India’s largest conglomerates and an unmarried marketing director. The poor guy was subject to grilling from the two executives, both of whom started talking of suitable possibilities. Deepak said in bar afterwards that it happened all the time at work, there was no escape from similar pressures at home.
Very strange that for a very long time now one of the favourite lines from the Tory spin machine has been that the Liberal Democrats ought to vote on principle over each issue as it arises.
Now, when Nick Clegg is talking about using Lib Dem votes to support an end to the discredited FPTP voting system, and nothing could be much more principled than that, this is derided by you Tories (under the leadership fo Christina D) as “siding with Brown”.
You Tories are amazing! Small wonder that Cameron is seen as a “fake”.
160 When did the Lib Dems propose AV as one of their ‘principles’?
I could understand them supporting a proportional system, that is, after all, their thing.
Sunil, I’m told they way to do it is to agree but give them an impossible to fill shopping list of attributes. Shuts them up, keeps them busy.
And, in the off chance the meet all the criteria you might well be swayed.
150
I hope they do sell it to the French, perhaps there might be some decent food in that sh*thole.
SPIN markets go down early tonight.
Mike’s tease upthread….
The thing is, there is no such thing as a uniform NATIONAL swing anymore. There are at least three distinct polling markets in the UK - England/Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and four if you separate Wales from England for polling purposes.
If Mike’s DeepThroat statistician has de-constructed the UK into it’s constituent polling parts then he’s going to add an authoritative endorsements to Seth ‘o Logue’s 22nd January post http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/22/what-should-be-the-default-assumption/comment-page-4/#comment-1395326
What seems clear to me [and also the wonks at CCHQ] is that Labour is piling on votes in Scotland at the expense of SNP and that’s what’s causing a narrowing of the polling gap in aggregate and that’s after the pollsters systematic enhancing of the Labour share to deal with ‘false recall’ etc.
But the election will be won or lost in England, where Labour are miles behind. In many of the swing seats, the Tories private polling is showing massive leads, which is why they’re still privately relaxed about the election prospects. It’s a sophisticated analysis that doesn’t suit the ‘hung parliament’ meme but it’s not my job to sell newspapers.
As other posters have mentioned before, minute analysis of the polling numbers can lead us to miss the big picture [hat-tip Easterross], which is the focus on the English towns.
Tellingly, the IpsosMORI expert hedged his bets a couple of weeks ago when asked to predict the result, suggesting that the analysis was as much art as science.
It will be interesting to see how Monday’s DeepThroat analyses this on Monday. Can he turn the polling ‘art’ into ’science’? Mike seems to think so. So perhaps we should believe too.
150 All part of gordos plan to sell us into the EU super state, god i hate that man.
160 I was reading that what AV does is shut out parties that the others least like. In a Scottish context i assumed ZNL want it because they think the unionist parties will always vote to shut out the SNP but maybe it would be the Tories or LDs. Don’t know enough to be sure.
163 - I assume you have never been stuck in Calais port?
>It seems all my extended family over there have turned into David Camerons - “Why aren’t you married yet, Sunil?”<
lol, Sunil - funny.
From NickMP our canvass data has been pretty consistently good for the last 10 days, ….I will say that the mood is still morose in DE areas, where people are still cheesed off and choosing between perceived evils, but the New Labour coalition seems to be reforming in the more prosperous wards.”
Thanks Nick for that. Always interesting. But are lots of your voters really telling you they want another Labour Govt?
Here is some insight from B, C1 and C2 areas.
“Who will you be voting for?” Answer = not sure.
“Who did you vote for last time?” Answer Labour.
“Do you want another Labour Govt?” Answers “No/oh good no /Never +expletives..”
“So what party could stop that?” Answers “Conservatives/ Tories/ Your lot”.
There is IMHO a big voter strike underway amongst the 2005 Labour supporters. A growing level of hate towards Labour.
160 I always thought the Lib Dems supported PR.
144 The Ghost of Harry Flashman
For those of us who put the recovery of the country’s economy above the interests of party politics, it would be better for the polls to be pointing to a hung parliament rather than an outright Cameron majority.
Global investors are being increasingly concerned with the refusal of highly geared states to start planning and announcing corrective reductions in their deficits.
This is not a question of phasing (how much will spending be cut in the current fiscal year) but commitment (how much needs to be cut over the medium term as economies exit recession and growth returns).
The Portuguese Parliament demonstrated yesterday that it is still prepared to vote against its government to increase medium term spending rather than reduce it. Greece is virtually bankrupt and will either need to leave the Euro or get bailed out by its European partners. (Just what is being discussed in Nunavut, Mr Darling?)
The crisis management measures to be taken over ClubMed borrowing will have a knock on effect on the next tiers of at risk countries (even the US and UK). The markets will punish countries with loose commitments and fudged promises.
If the polls are not pointing to a clear Tory victory, this will only increase pressure on Labour to fess up to the current problems and declare a credible strategy for reducing the deficit. In plain language, to state what taxes need to rise and what spending needs to be cut.
As Labour finally reveals the horrors to the electorate, the hung parliament polls will be but history. Not even RodC could come up with a theory that refutes this consequence.
“It’s an extraordinary guest slot from a professional statistician who has done an exhaustive examination of the UNS.”
Someone, somewhere is obviously getting worried.
I do hope he understands the British electoral system.
So few people do, you know…
173. Thats the way Rod, get the attack in first.
Poor Rod, a real statistician makes an appearance, and that’s Rod’s USP gone……
160 - mad post. Just how is FPTP discredited, except in your eyes? And how is it voting on principle when they know full well that this isn’t anything to do with winning the argument and making Labour change its mind; it’s just because Gordon is worried about losing? Brown has dangled something shiny in front of the Lib Dems, and they’ve bitten down hard - even though AV is clearly not what they actually want.
174. No, I’m looking forward to it.
173 - “Someone, somewhere is obviously getting worried.”
You perhaps?
Labour will not get a hung parliament.
Far to much hate out there for that.
Thats what happens when you screw up royally and just to compound it put a voter repelling maniac in charge
165.”What seems clear to me [and also the wonks at CCHQ] is that Labour is piling on votes in Scotland at the expense of SNP and that’s what’s causing a narrowing of the polling gap in aggregate and that’s after the pollsters systematic enhancing of the Labour share to deal with ‘false recall’ etc. ”
bunnco, its not as simple as that I am afraid.
So, Dover to raise 500million - about a day and a half worth of new borrowing.
165 Bunnco indeed and as some of the more astute political journalists are starting to note, some Labour MPs who are far from retirement age are finding reasons to retire at the GE so close to it and they are sitting in seats with notionally safe-ish majorities. The only answer can be that private polling is telling them what the Tories refused to believe in 1997 with a far healthier economy, the game is over for them.
“I assume you have never been stuck in Calais port?”
It doesn’t matter - for a lefty, Britain automatically comes bottom.
Super Kangaroo, Super Kangaroo
You’re a dinky-di bonzer bloke and we Love You!
Super Kangaroo, Super Kangaroo!
It’s another day for Super Kangarooooo!
173.by RodCrosby February 6th, 2010 at 6:58 pm
“I do hope he understands the British electoral system.
So few people do, you know…”
You don’t, thats for sure you old numpty!
180 So that’s the whole of Kent in about a month.
Mon Dieu!
160.Curious, what is that I hear, is it the sound of silence where there should be some sort of robust counter argument to the points I raised about the current situation in Scotland, and the difficulties it poses for the Libdems MP’s there?
Oh, and I managed this post without a personal dig at you too.
179 - Christina, agreed - we have regional voting patterns that don’t always fit in with tiny samples of UK polls. What happens in Glasgow may not be the same in Dundee.
170: interesting, TC. I think the Tories are overestimating the straight “stop Brown=vote Tory” effect - that was working 6 months ago but the annoyance level has ebbed a bit and the confidence that the Tories would do better has ebbed more. In your conversations, do you add a fifth question; “So will you actually vote for us?”
The demographic variance is striking, though. I wonder if there may be two kinds of marginal. Seats where there’s a fairly homogenous middle-cass vote with university elements (other examples might be Hove and Charles Clarke’s) may be a lot harder for the Tories to take than seats with a polarised rich/poor population (like some industrial West Midlands seats). The former has ex-Iraq protesters returning to Labour from the LibDems, while the latter has the Labour vote heavily dependent on fed-up DE voters.
173 Rod you provide evidence almost daily to the majority of us that you have little understanding of our electoral system.
You swingback if you want to
183 ?
168
No, but I’ve been stuck in Dover a few times.
Back in the eighties the Tories sold off the, ‘Family Silver’ rail companies, water etc ended up in French hands. The rubbiish in this area is collected by a company called SITA I suspect it may not be British.
If you believe in the free market believe in it.
Only an hour and a half before The Sunday Telegraph presses are set to roll.
188 Nick Palmer MP
The former has ex-Iraq protesters returning to Labour from the LibDems
So canny of Gordon to reinforce this return flight with publicity from the Chilcot Inquiry.
Enough to make you want to change your leader, eh Nick?
171 - precisely Sean. There is nothing proportional about AV. All it will do is to reduce Tory Seats and hand them to the Lib Dems.
From Guido
Martin Day says:
February 6, 2010 at 5:47 pm
New Poll out:
Tories 42%
Labour 33%
Lib Dems 14%
Call that Mr Clegg a Yellow Taxi!!!
Is that the Martin Day? And how would he know?
195 Treat it with extreme caution, I’d say. It’s way out of line with everything else.
Before the madness of a poll thread commences, can I say what good news it is the INLA look to have disarmed.
re 173 - the guest slots, for there are more than one, are by Andy Cook - a long-standing regular on PB who earns his living as a professional statistician. No doubt doubt you will contribute to the discussion which I hope takes places in a civilised manner.
He’ll be seeking to answer the question of what is the minimum Tory lead to secure a majority?
195 Is Martin Day “Don Mk2″ ?
195 It wouldn’t be hung parliament either on UNS - Con Maj 28 on EC
I think Mr Day (if it is him) is having a little fun at the Lib Dems expense perhaps?
If not, I’ll take 42
195 In fact, I consider it’s inconceivable that ICM poll would put the Lib Dems on 14%.
198. My guess is the answer will be somewhere between 5.0% and 6.0%.
Glorious victory for England! St George slays the puny dragon!
More seriously, Flood is a bloody liability. Pointless kicks to no-one (unlike Cueto) and gets turned over. Care did well, Wilkinson needs to sharpen up kicking out of hand, Tait was good. With Flutey back it should help the side.
Scotland Vs France will be very interesting. I hope Scotland win.
Also, Ireland were disappointing. Didn’t watch the second half due to an inexplicable bout of narcolepsy. They should’ve scored more. Italy were poor.
If Martin’s figures are accurate doesn’t that replicate the 92 GE reult?
I cannot understand the AV system why would I want a second or third preference
198 Judging by Mike’s last sentence, it sounds as though that will be a Tory supportive slot from Andy Cook.
IF those figures are right (though I don’t remember a poll seen on Guido to be correct) Conservatives are about right, Labour and Libs are the ones swapping votes. Should be about four off Labour and onto the Libs to give a more accurate picture.
198 Mike Smithson
the guest slots [...] are by Andy Cook
That’s a relief Mike.
I was expecting you to announce it was Martin Day.
I say again. Buy Tory on the spreads.
Guido polls usually dodgy, though i can see why, if wheelen heard lead of 9% he’d assume it’ll be hung parliament since lab being above 31-32% (hence tories above 40%) in an icm is a long long time ago!!
FWIW Martin’s numbers give the Tories a 28 seat overall majority and leave the LibDems with 20 seats.
The Conservative and Lib Dem leaders have urged MPs facing charges over expense claims not to use Parliamentary privilege to avoid court proceedings.
David Cameron said he was “disgusted” by the prospect and Nick Clegg said the public would be outraged.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8502026.stm
How long do we give it before Gordo follows suit? He will probably wait just too long, as usual…
198 - When I’ve played with VIPA, the lowest lead I’ve had to get a ToryMaj is 7%
The key factors I’ve worked out is
1) How much the Tories get over 41%, above 41% lots more gains come into place
2) The Tories doing worse/Labour doing better in Scotland (and Lesser extent Wales)
If you put the 1992 result into baxter you get a hung parliament, under VIPA, we’re looking a majority of 60+
209 - That depends on whether you’re taking action in expectation of the final result or taking action in expectation of market moves. My expectation is that the Tories will go lower.
213 - First line should read
When I’ve played with VIPA, the lowest lead I’ve had to get a ToryMaj is 7%, when the Tory share is at 38-40% range
I had a walk around Eastwood in Notts recently. Thought it was in the Broxtowe seat at the time but then found out it’s actually in Geoff Hoon’s Ashfield constituency despite being in Broxtowe borough.
213, btw, Mr. Eagles, how are Sebastian Morris and Emily Temperance Rose (I know, I’ve omitted the fellow’s third name and probably messed up the lady’s) coming along?
198. if you mean Andy Cooke, why, that’s just fine.
Andy’s a good skin, and will be cautious and sober in his conclusions, irrespective of how much others might wish to hype them up…
Some good stuff in Any Questions
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00qf7bq/Any_Questions_05_02_2010/
217 - You’re close enough (Sebastian Leonardo Morris and Emily Rose Temperance)
My wife is in hospital at the moment, has been since yesterday lunchtime, blood pressure issues at the moment.
Doctor has told me, I should be ready to meet my kids sometime within the next 6 weeks.
216:
Eastwood is part of Broxtowe Borough Council, but the Ashfield constituency for some reason. It’s a former mining town and mostly solid Labour territory, although the BNP have been making progress in the area. The anti-Labour vote tends to vote Lib Dem in local council elections, but Tory in parliamentary elections.
Nick Palmer would probably love Eastwood to become part of Broxtowe, it might give him a fighting chance at the next election.
220- Good luck.
Stepping Hill?
216 - yes, it’s Ashfield - there’s a by-election there shortly. It’s ex-mining country and also where DH Lawrence came from, with both characters and places locally known (e.g. “The Rainbow” is about Cossall village). Lawrence’s niece only died recently and used to give talks about him. People have mixed feelings - he’s the best-known local writer, but didn’t actually like the area much; people who knew him spoke well of him, but the “Lady Chatterley” family have never forgiven him and refuse all media requests for access to places on the estate that he was writing about.
Politically a difficult seat to read - looks safe Labour on paper, with Tories second, but LibDems run the council and have done well in previous Ashfield by-elections. The lack of clarity on who is the main challenger to Labour should help.
Just received this from my contact:
Tonights Poll:
Con 39 %
Lab 32 %
Lib 19 %
So its in line with all the others.
220 - Best wishes to you and your family Eagles.
216. “I had a walk around Eastwood in Notts recently.”
Aw, brings back childhood memories of getting a plastic toy from Woolies, for being a good boy on a trip to the dentists there….
222 - Thanks,
Nope Jessop Women’s hospital in Sheffield.
224. Missile locked on target…
224 - Excellent.
The fop meltdown continues.
228 = Rod Crosby locked on hubris 6/5/10
224 - Source?
205 If i understand it right then AV is about shutting out the least liked so that’s what your preferences do e.g
Lab supporter might be - Lab, Ld, Tory, BNP
LD supporter might be - LD, Lab, Tory BNP
Tory might be Tory, LD, Lab, BNP
etc. So a party like the BNP would need 50%+ of first preferences.
In Scotland it might be
Lab - Lab, LD, Tory, SNP
LD - LD, Lab, Tory, SNP
So the SNP would need 50%+
Tories might want it if they’re planning to stuff their voters over Europe and expect a UKIP backlash - save their seats with Lab, LD votes putting UKIP as last preference.
Hard to say how it would pan out in England with the big three. I’d have thought it would have worked out very badly for the Tories over the last 12 years but not so much now the tide’s turned. Hard to say.
224 - And is that the ICM one we’re expecting in the SunTel?
229 - interesting if creative use of the word meltdown there smearleader
I see Timmy is having as many problems understanding the meaning of the word “meltdown”, as he did over the word “majority”.
229 - Yeah a 1 point drop is a meltdown - where did you learn this stuff, the LSE? Labour up 3 on last ICM I believe. That is the big shift. Will be intrigued to see the details…
229 tim
I’ve just noticed a single light on in the East Wing. It’s visible through the windows of the Dowager Countess’s boudoir. I sent a footman to turn it off but her Ladyship says it should remain on as a last beacon of hope.
Is she a climate change denier or a psychic?
220.TSE, Sorry to hear that news, but they will keep Mrs Eagles wrapped in cotton wool in the hospital. Sometimes its the best place to be, and that can be reassuring in itself. They will be making sure that the babies are well prepared if an early delivery is needed too. Spent a few weeks there myself while waiting for baby No3, after looking to be breech, he then decided to be transverse so I needed to be very near the Labour room. I never did get to use any of my birth plans.
Could there be more than one poll tonight?
229 - Mandelson is melting? Isn’t he more the flaming variety?
224 Certainly very close, to if not in NOM territory. Andy Cook must have come up with something very convincing to have persuaded Mike to close down his position, when all the most recent polls are pointing to this being the likely outcome.
236 - Could it be that Cameron is managing to motivate the Labour vote and the Tory vote at the same time?
Let’s wait until we get some properly sourced figures before getting excited about tonight’s polls.
There is no Conservative meltdown at all but more of a Labour recovery.If this is the best Labour can do after about 6 weeks of a stumbling start by the Tories to the campaign then I cannot see a lot of hope for them.It really wouldn’t take much for the Tories to put on another 2-3 points to their total.
232 Mr Jones
Via the STV / AV (by-election) system, we can actually see the direction of preference voting in Scotland. It actually varies from area to area.
Which isn’t very surprising. The 2nd preference of voters in Easterross’s area is unlikely to mirror mine.
While bunnco’s wonks at Tory HQ obviously imagine that there is a single “Scottish voice”, that simply demonstrates their ignorance (of which the Scots Tories probably despair - since they have already told bunnco that he got the situation in Scotland wrong).
241. Tories sub-300 seats on that poll…
Any post on Guido about polls is a wind up.
Curious - odd thing about Lib Dem support for AV is that it is a support for strengthening non proportional representation. I’m quite supportive of AV though I prefer the informed AV that the French two stage voting delivers. It retains the local representation that is key to Wesminster democracy and strengthens it. In all probability it will strengthen the two party system, at least in England providing PR isn’t bought into local Government.
Gordon Brown is supporting it because it provides a dividing line, not out of any deep political desire but his Cabinet colleagues support it because they believe that third party support will break their way, that there are the Tories versus everyone else. They will be surprised, if of course it was ever bought in.
Climate makes money move in mysterious ways
The British Government has been pouring millions of pounds into ‘climate-related’ projects all over the world, says Christopher Booker
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7176262/Climate-makes-money-move-in-mysterious-ways.html
243 - Yes, lets all remember the excitement of the Labour twitterati over a mori poll planning to show the lead down to 3% a few weeks ago?
I believe the lead turned out to be 17%
220, hope everything goes well
238 - Thanks Christina.
We made a decision this week, to move in with my parents this week, with my Dad being a pediatrician, and my mum also being able to drive.
234/5/6 - If the leads gone from 17% to 7% in 3/4 months what word would you use, collapse?
Assuming the figure are right, there is a rare unanimity (except Angus Reid) whatever polling method is used, and it fits with what the marked recovery in Labour certainty to vote that most marginal seat MPs are finding. I won’t discount whatever Andy Cooke will advise us, but the margin’s now close enough to make a hung parliament a strong contender even if the Tories would win with, say, a 4% lead - the momentum has been all one way since the start of the year.
245 “It actually varies from area to area.”
Yes i imagined so. I was thinking more of what McDoom’s motives might be. Being him it’s perfectly possible to blow up in his face and do the opposite.
244
Or for the Tories to lose 2/3 points of course.
You can’t always suppose everything will work in your sides favour.
251 - Tim. The Tory vote has not collapsed - its been far more of a Labour recovery.
244: PeterBuss - bear in mind that Labour and the LibDems haven’t actually started their campaigns yet. The Tories chose to go early, for some reason best known to them, which is why they’ve been getting so much media attention (usually a mixed blessing).
*** POLL ALERT ***
CON HOME showing a 9 point lead:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/tories-9-ahead-in-icm-sunday-telegraph-survey.html
39-30-20
What a load of old tosh all these excited lefties are coming up with….
How cruel that the hope of being hung is now so high for you all.
Sad really.
CON 39
LAB 30
LIB 20
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/02/tories-9-ahead-in-icm-sunday-telegraph-survey.html
re 251. The real problem Tim is that in real elections Labour never make the polls shares that the pollsters predict - and most of the change in recent months has come from Labour moves upwards.
There’s no doubt that the Tories were on 44% and 45% in October with ICM and have gone down.
251 - for someone who likes to trumpet his so called intellect you do seem to have trouble with the ordinary meaning of words.
Or of course we have the possibility that you’re spinning or even being less than honest.
Some things will never change.
Anyone think Labour will in power after election? anybody?
“It actually varies from area to area.”
not that much, really; and the Tories are lepers so far as transfers are concerned everywhere…
254 - accept your point without reservation Coldstone. Does seem to me though that there are people on this Site who have simply written off Cameron - a very stupid thing to do bearing in mind his past record.
OT Cameron’s latest web cast thingy - some good ideas on getting involved towards the end
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jtfMj-NhUc&feature=player_embedded
CON -1
LAB +1
LD -1
All rather MOE…
251. At the end of 2008 it went from 15 to 5 in a month! :O
9 point lead with less than 3 months to go until the election. Gutted!!!!
ICM/SunTelegraph poll has Con 39% (-1) Lab 30% (+1) Lib Dem 20% (-1)
Latest tweet from “journodave”
That didn’t take long now did it - silly billies.
252/256 Nick well tell your party leader to grow a pair and call the General Election or would you rather he totally destroys UK plc first?
256 - Your really could have fooled me Nick !1 Labour have been in campaigning mode from the beginning of the Year for goodness sake. Remember the Darling Press Conference on the day of the Tory draft manifesto launch !!
It’s getting very late for a poll to keep the lid on a poll which is to appear in the Sunday papers. Remember PfP’s first rule: There’s no such thing as a secret, someone always knows and someone always tells.
Just more noise then.
I do find it really strange that the Lib Dem haven’t picked up. I mean we have weeks of Chilcott on our screens with a Tony appearance lying through his teeth (must have had the left of centre anti-war’ers screaming at their tv’s and reminding why they voted Lib Dem in 2005) and now expenses where all the talk is about 3 Labour MP’s + 1 Tory Peer and Legg where all the big repayments were by MP’s from the Red and Blue team.
Given the hype, I suspect Tories will be relieved by seeing themselves still 9 points ahead.
VIPA’d that would give them a decent majority, I am sure.
But they need to learn from recent polls: their lead hasn’t collapsed - but it has certainly crumbled at the edges.
It’s time to go on the attack. Stop the faffing about. ATTACK LABOUR. Lefties are insects. What do you do to insects? You STAMP ON THEM.
Stamp on their nasty little insect heads until they go pop.
259. I was expecting something more exciting than that.
That’ll do. Plus a win over Wales.
268. Seems like an “as you were poll” with just the usual sampling noise.
260 - Whatever we term it Mike, betting on the Dave Malfunction is the the most amusing way of making money I’ve discovered
Bearing in mind last week’s polls I think most Con supporters would be fairly pleased with a 9% lead with ICM.
Also a fair chance that a good proportion of the polling was done before last night’s TV news which was very bad for Labour.
A “meh” poll - which, given the media narrative, is about the best the Tories could have hoped for. All MOE, of course, but must be very disappointing for Labour to be going backwards when they are supposedly in the ascendancy.
Would like my lot to be on 40pts but am not dismayed by this poll one bit.Not that good for Labour when you think about it - a miserable 30 pts. I still think that at least 40% have decided to vote Tory come what may - and thats what the polls have basically been saying for yonks now.
Tories would be a lot better off long-term with a narrowed lead and a market revolt before election day.
imo
Oops - sorry, I misread the numbers, ignore previous post.
Labour are +1, not -1. Good, but not good enough, for them.
I think that we need to remember there was always a very clear possibility that the vote would polarise between Labour and the Conservatives, and that it would squeeze out the others. It looks to me as if the Labour vote has recovered rather than the Conservative vote collapsing. So I think that we should remember Bob Worcester’s words of advice about the leads. Tim is desperate to use the drop in the Conservative lead to feed a narrative that the Conservatives are collapsing, they are not. Labour is recovering as the GE draws very near, and with the current economic crisis and recession, that was never really in any doubt to be honest.
But looking forward to the articles from Andy Cooke that Mike Smithson has trailed tonight. Going to be interesting to life the comfort blanket of UNS to see what lurks beneath in the various regions.
First time the Conservatives have been under 40% in an ICM since June;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/icm
Last time they polled under 39% in an ICM poll was February 2008! Incredibly consistent polling.
Hmmm,the Tories may well win a slim overall majority-on the other hand they could easily wind up only just being largest in hung parliamnet(or worse still)-still a lot to play for all sides
284 - The lead is dropping at 2% per month.
39-30? That’s the smallest possible “possible hung parliament”, as I reckon either 40-30 or 39-29 is a definite majority.
256 “bear in mind that Labour and the LibDems haven’t actually started their campaigns yet.”
course they haven’t nick.
270: Easterross: chill, have a nice cup of tea. With both the economy and the polls moving the right way, why should Gordon rush?
271: Peter, parties in election year are in permanent campaign mode and constantly holding press conferences to distract from each other. But the Tories are the only party to have outlined a draft manifesto, fuzzy though it is. That doesn’t mean that the other parties will have glitch-free launches - just that we’ve not had them yet. The Tories spent (I understand) £500,000 on posters in January, to £0 for the other parties - and much good it’s done them.
282 MrJones
And the market revolt is not that far away.
For those that doubt it here are some more important statistics published in the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/7168484/European-markets-plummet-as-the-echoes-of-the-ERM-crisis-intensify.html
European shares have endured their worst week since the very depths of the financial crisis almost a year ago, with economists likening the mood to the weeks that preceded the collapse of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in the early 1990s.
Apologies for my long absence BTW-I’ve been looking at doing some freelance financial work for a friend,as I did a qualification in Finanace and Accountancy with the Open University 2002-3
258
I find that statement absurd. A third term government battered and war torn, led by an unpopular PM, and the main opposition party,(at this late stage) is still not certain of getting a working majority. It isn’t the left that should be worried, it should be the right.
Crosby ICM probabilistic
Con 309
Lab 250
LD 56
SNP 10
PC 5
Oth 2
NI 13
Con 14 short of a majority. 1% swingback to Lab/LD coalition. 1.9% swingback to Lab largest party…
New threads up.
245. Bunnco & The Wonks…
What I was suggesting was that there are three or four polling zones within the UK, each of which has natural variability but in aggregate behave differently.
This shouldn’t really be a surprise, in Scotland there’s the SNP and in Northern Ireland, the Ulstermen.
So with a sample size of 1000 in most polls, there isn’t enough resolution to accurately reflect the national variability and for that reason, I’d be looking for regional splits in forecasting seat numbers rather than rely on estimates based upon the UK in aggregate.
256.”244: PeterBuss - bear in mind that Labour and the LibDems haven’t actually started their campaigns yet. The Tories chose to go early, for some reason best known to them, which is why they’ve been getting so much media attention (usually a mixed blessing).”
EH???
Rubbish NickP, and you know it is. Labour are skint, but that has not stopped them spending taxpayers money on government advertising like a drunken sailor in the run up to this GE. Nor has the communications allowance been suspended either. Just remind us how much money was spent on by the government campaign on global warming and reducing our carbon footprints before Brown appeared at the Copenhagen chinwag? It apparently caused a lot of complaints too for scaring the kids watching it.
290 Yes, fingers crossed.
******* BETTING POST *******
(possibly my last for a while)
Presumably Mike sold his NOM osition at around 2.5/1 today. For him and others who believe that there remains the prospect of the Tories failing to achieve an overall majority of 325 seats, but who believe they will win at least 275 seats, allow me to introduce the attractions of Victor Chsndler’s Tory seat bands:
Buy 275-299 seats at 12/1 and 300-324 seats at 6.5/1, staking these two bets at 36.5% and 63.5% respectively to provide an equalised winning return of 3.75/1, a rather tidy 50% better return than the NOM odds offered by even the most generous bookie.