Is this the day Gord can smile again?
January 26th, 2010
What will the recession end do to the campaign?
Unless everybody has got this wildly wrong official figures out this morning will show that Britain’s economy grew in the final quarter of 2009, thus marking the end of the recession that has been going on for eighteen months.
It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown who believe that this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and that of the Tories wrong.
For this gives them what they believe will be the killer closing argument for the general election. You can see it now - Brown’s the man who successfully guided Britain through this difficult period and did it with a much smaller impact on unemployment than many had been predicting.
We have got thus far and have come out of it, we will be told, so why risk everything by letting the other lot in?
The environment in which this news comes out for Brown could not be more challenging. One finding from this morning’s Guardian ICM is that 66% want a change of government, against 25% who think continuity matters more and want to stick with Labour. That’s a pretty wide gap.
The economy will dominate the next couple of new cycles but then our attention will turn in a big and a dramatic way to Friday’s appearance before the Iraq Inquiry of Tony Blair and the questions, no doubt, of what his chancellor’s role was in New Labour’s signature policy.
The timing is in my favourite phrase “less than optimal” for Brown Central for instead of focussing on the economy, the inquiry will take centre stage.
As I suggested yesterday a reason why a May 6th election might not be as certain as some are suggesting is what happens on April 23rd - the day the growth figures for the first quarter of 2010 are due out. What would going back into recession, as might happen, do to Labour’s core case only days before people vote?
Mike Smithson
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First!
Runner-up.
“It’s a massive day for Labour and its leader Mr. Brown”
You mean just hobbling over the line to achieve the position most leading Western economies reached months and months ago?
“You can see it now - Brown’s the man who successfully guided Britain through this difficult period and did it with a much smaller impact on unemployment than many had been predicting.”
One problem, many who remember the last recession will also remember the lag behind of unemployment. And those that don’t, will find out the hard way over the coming weeks. And even the public sector are already waking up to the bigger picture of their wage freezes, and the focus on their pensions.
Brown needs to play this carefully.
95% of people wouldn’t even have a clue what the definition of a recession is. But what they are concerned about are things that directly affect them - ie their living standards and their jobs.
We now have pay cuts / freezes at a time when inflation is starting to take off. Result = people feel worse off.
Telling people who are feeling worse off that “the recession is over, haven’t we done a great job, aren’t we brilliant” is not going to go down well.
5 “We now have pay cuts / freezes at a time when inflation is starting to take off. Result = people feel worse off.”
Especially as most also face significant further tax rises to pay for Labour’s profligacy.
Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240. I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.
New Labour and Gordon Brown need this number to beat expectations to really get the press to buy into the recovery narrative. Get people out there on the streets, spending, feeling confident and call that election. And then we’ll really see how the Osborne and Cameron message of promising savage cuts and tax rises for the middle classes plays in the election.
People may think it’s prudent to vote Tory at this time. But when they arrive to cast their vote, are you going to put a cross next to the name of the man who represents significant reductions in your standard of living, disposable income while promising his richest buddies tax cuts? Hell no. The Tories are praying for more economic misery and job losses. And they would love one of the rating agencies to downgrade the UK.
A tale of two press conferences, both retold on Adam Boulton&Co.
Joey Jones - Two Leaders, Two Styles
“Plus points for David Cameron? Conversational, alert and engaging. Potential pitfalls? Too chummy with the assembled journalists I thought…excessively ready to engage in a quip or aside. (Remember Matthew Parris’ advice to be statesmanlike this weekend? Cameron was just too clubbable.)
Plus points for Gordon Brown? Sober, detailed and coherent. But…a tendency to lecture, the usual unsubtle evasion of questions he doesn’t fancy…and a chronic lack of variety in tone and intonation. He did have the best joke of the morning though, when he said Bob Ainsworth was talking about the danger on May the 6th of Tories taking over…councils. It’s the way he tells them.
Both men have work to do.
UPDATE: At least I thought the Ainworth answer was a joke anyway…. Adam, who was there, is evidently not convinced!”
Yes, Joey, its the way that Gordon tells those jokes that really gets you tickled. Me, I loved the Paul Waugh bit where he admitted he was laughing while he typed about Football clubs and debt vs income. Get it???!!
Obviously not, Joey missed the big points.
On to Framing the Next General Election by Adam Boulton on Boulton&Co. Wake up if you are yawning yet, yes its dire, but its about as good as you are going to get from the political lobby.
So boys and girls, buckle up and hope that what Adam describes is about what you heard as voters in the up coming GE? I have my doubts.
“But when they arrive to cast their vote, are you going to put a cross next to the name of the man who represents significant reductions in your standard of living, disposable income while promising his richest buddies tax cuts? Hell no.”
No, you’re right, Richie, you’re going to put your cross next to the Party whose policies on financial regulation were as responsible as anything for an epic destruction of personal wealth, whose economic incompetence has made us the last significant economy to leave recession, who claimed to have abolished boom and bust and yet presided over the biggest of both in decades and who has loaded dozens of stealth taxes on you and your friends and relatives.
I’m not even going to mention the destruction of civil liberties, the constitutional vandalism, the epic administrative incompetence, the disastrous wars, the lies and the spin.
It’s only the marked bias of the electoral system in favour of the Socialists that prevents them giving up altogether - a bias that a Cameron government will hopefully address, at least partly.
The problem is that with galloping inflation, tax rises, interest rate rises, spending cuts and the like to come then the recover could feel more like a recession than the recession. It might be somewhat wise to remember the words of Churchill in a different context.
5,10 re end of recession (Mike L & James Burdett)
Precisely. It’s the economy. Not the economics headlines but the pound in the voters’ pockets.
The Q4 will be ’sung from the treetops’ by every minister whatever question is asked that they, Labour and Brown saved the world and is leading everyone out of recession unlike the party opposite. Remember that ‘leading the world’ line he used to spout until it was discovered it was us and Spain (G20 Member?) still in recession. No doubt now we will be the best placed to achieve the recovery and they will hammer the message ‘ don’t let the Tories ruin the recovery’. This would be nigh on impossible given the wreckage now lying all around after 13 wasted years.
You will now see lies, spin and deception all the way to the election with every statistic and figure massaged in their favor ably assisted and promoted by the state broadcaster and the likes of ‘The one show’, the GMTV couch and ‘Softly softly’ Marr. The one show and GMTV? Well be warned such sublime messaging day in day out does have an effect.
Meanwhile in the real world people will continue to lose jobs and be shifted onto other registers in the guise of ‘giving help to hard working families’ but really to lower the unemployment without actually finding anyone a job.
The sad thing is we are mired in debt and will be for decades, our manufacturing base is destroyed there are close on 10 million either economically inactive, in worthless training or surprise! Actually on the unemployment register. At least triple that is on some form of credit. To support this is less than 50% of the overall population that is not in a public utility or service but in what might be described as the wealth producing sector steadily being taxed and ‘red taped’ into the ground.
All the repercussions of the Labour years will bear fruit in the first 2 to 3 years of a Tory administration and last for a minimum of a decade but more likely generations while the ‘tough decisions’ as he likes to call them will be put off in an attempt to shore up votes and land the whole sorry mess into the oppositions collective lap while the country continues to get worse by the day. The first few years of the next administration will require the finances to be again made stable in other words precisely what happened in 1979 onwards. Again Labour will blame everything on the Tories as they did then, snipe from the sidelines about inflation, interest rates (yes they are going to rocket as a result) and stir up industrial unrest by their paymasters the unions.
Labour cannot afford now to risk a budget as they would be shredded on the spot and they know it. They cannot afford a Q1 that even stands a chance of going backwards so I still think that a March 25th election with the locals brought forward to ensure maximum confusion when voting in favor of Labour will be the approach taken. It does though require a decision so I have not bet on this as to bet on anything that requires a brave decision the PM has to make is a waste of good cash. Meanwhile the PM tries to get every International conference in London he can (at our cost) to booster his image in the vain hope he can be seen as the international statesman. He misses the point yet again as people just don’t care. They don’t want to see this buffoon prancing about like smooching up to Obama Beach they want this country sorted from the chaos Labour have caused.
Listening to people while I travel up and down the country from Southampton to Aberdeen the level of pure hatred that is out there for Labour and in particular Brown I have never seen before and still makes me think Labour will be sub 200. However If Joe public do start voting Labour again on the basis of one set of massaged figures then they truly deserve absolutely everything they are undoubtedly going to get.
Will Gordon Brown really expect people to go out and start spending if the figures are positive? Surely not. Nobody with any sense would start spending when we’re all going to shortly receive the worst gas/electricity bills in our lives.
The Iraq Inquiry will take over his posturing for the rest of the week. Even his Afghanistan and Yemen summits on Wednesday and Thursday will be overshadowed and quite rightly.
I don’t trust Brown with the economy. Problem is I’m not too impressed with team Cameron either.
Certainly Brown must be very, very careful here. The fact that we are very belatedly returning to growth is for the country good news – but much too late. I am yet to be convinced that it is good news for Brown. The tardiness and weakness of our recovery begs all sorts of questions about why we had such a deep and long recession compared to everyone else. Sooner or later it had to end (later!) – just imagine if it the figures had shown a continued contraction.
The press will certainly not give Labour a free ride here. I can imagine the Sun leading the charge with all sorts of criticisms and ‘…yes but’ comments.
As other also rightly point out the story on jobs, interest rates, debt, tax, spending is beyond ugly. (FWIW I think that OGH is right that Labour will try to spin the ‘less job losses than feared’ line – but this is one that is also deeply dangerous for Labour as the total number not economically active has soared and the real non-working numbers are horrific, and this opens them up to quite dangerous lines of attack).
Richie Rich at 7. That’s a fabulous comment. I suggest you type it up and send to everyone in your constituency. They’ll love it. Gordon forever!
First?
Second?
Fifteenth?
Whatever! A triumph for a hard-working poster.
Please would everybody commenting on this thread take a long, long look at Gordon Brown’s face in the picture that accompanies the text and then advise what their gut reaction to it is.
Me: He suffers from a serious case of NBPE (not being punched enough)
Aggregate the reactions or likely reactions of 45 million electors and you know where the GE is going.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/7073678/Seven-year-olds-should-be-taught-about-sex.html
Completely off-topic but this makes my skin crawl - all i can imagine this will achieve is a lot of very young children experimenting and a lot of not-entirely-intentional rapes of very young girls by very young boys.
9. Utter nonsense. The Tories were always committed to reducing regulation on the financial industry. They were never going to tighten the rules that would have driven big institutions and extraordinarily wealthy individuals out of the City of London. I’m amazed Osborne and Cameron can say any different with a straight face.
It’s easy to attack New Labour now. But the vast majority of New Labour economic policies were right out of the Tory handbook. And that’s why your party was so impotent in opposition until the financial crisis struck. They had absolutely nothing different to offer in terms of policies.
I’m delighted for Osborne to keep banging the CUTS, CUTS, CUTS, TAX RISES, TAX RISES, TAX RISES drum. At the end of the day the bottom line for each individual will be a powerful motivator in the way they vote. And there is absolutely no doubt: if you are in the middle class, go to work each day for an employer, and have a mortgage, you will be much better off voting New Labour at the 2010 General Election.
Suggest we don’t feed the troll…
18 Richie Rich “It’s easy to attack New Labour now. But the vast majority of New Labour economic policies were right out of the Tory handbook”
Absolutely priceless !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I nomonate this post and that staement in particular as ‘duffer of the week’.
RR After 13 years in power, listening to no one and always thinking they are right and everyone else is wrong, flogging the figures, lying, deceiving and bullying its still all the Tories fault??????????????????????? WTF!!!! ROTFLMAO!!!.
(I am just gobsmacked that you did not manage to get the name Thatcher in that post somewhere)
You and Labour deserve to go into opposition for a very very long time oR better for all just disappear completly.
19 agreed…. but that one comment just had to be answered
These figures are meaningless.
Extra spending at Christmas & new year will of course push up the numbers.
When people get their heating bills/credit card statements etc spending in the next few months will slow down.
Things will not improve in time for Gordo to claim any kind of success,he will be booted out just as things get worse.
Life’s a bitch.
Morning All.
Todays news may announce that the UK has at last ended its 18 month long run in recession, which is good news for the nation and an announcement I heartily welcome.
However, what credit can Brown realistically claim from all this.? We can safely guess the spin the Government will put on it, but I seem to remember Brown’s claim of “Best placed etc” yet we are the last G20 country out of it. Darling forecast an end last Q3 and growth of 2+% for Q4..!
How could they have got things so baddly wrong then and yet claim any credit for it now?
Labour to ‘ignore’ SNP during General Election
http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/01/25/labour-to-ignore-snp-during-general-election/
This is a fascinating article, although I am not 100% convinced that Mr Murphy’s words justify the headline and the journalistic spin!
However, if the headline is correct, and Labour really do try to “ignore” the SNP, this will be a massive change of strategy.
Labour have been presenting themselves as the underdogs and ‘The Opposition’ to the SNP government, with great resultant success (eg. Glenrothes and Glasgow North East). How on earth can they continue to play that card if they now try to “ignore” the SNP? They can’t.
I am on record here at PB.com, during late 2006/early 2007, in the lead up to the Scottish GE in May 2007, as saying that I could not believe the high profile Labour were giving the SNP by their daily, full-frontal attacks. All it did was boost Salmond and his party -> it made it crystal clear to swing voters that if they wanted rid of McConnell, they HAD to vote SNP.
Maybe Labour have learnt from their 2006/2007 mistake? But on the other hand, giving the SNP a clear run could have catastrophic consequences.
When you are young and take your first job after qualifying, your mind is full of textbook data and examination answers. You are confident of your knowledge yet apprehensive of it application.
It is not long before this knowledge founders on a rock. A veteran will then take you in hand and caution you to forget “everything you have learnt” because “in the ‘real world’ things are done differently”. You are sceptical of this wisdom but fearful of challenge. You continue to follow your trained methodology but seek to cloak it in order to fit in with the new culture. You secretly know better but don’t wish to offend.
Then more time passes and almost unconsciously you yourself become acquire the intuition of the veteran: the shortcuts and the tricks of the trade, the quick assessments and the ability to make fast-track decisions.
These thoughts came to me as I was spending a couple of hours catching up on threads I have missed over the past week. For all the data presented in the threads, it is not the headline information nor even the most carefully worked formal analysis that catches your attention. It is the seemingly unconnected and inconsequential comments that provide the signposts.
It is Mike L looking at the recent ICM poll data and adjusting for “Don’t Knows” to conclude:
“Swing reported was 8.5% so without adjustment for Don’t Knows the swing would have been 10% - ie equivalent to 17% Con National lead in swing calculators.”
It is ryans looking at the decimal percentages in the ARPO poll and stating:
we were so close to movement in this poll!!! con 40.38%, lab 23.63%
These are but two of many. Each observation can be attacked in isolation as breaching textbook methodology, but their coincidence with many other near misses or interesting observations tells the underlying tale. And the pressure is almost always being applied in the same direction. The momentum is unidirectional.
Ladies and Gentlemen. We are watching freak waters press against a weakened dam. Rely not on the structural engineers statistics. Put your faith in the omens and portents, in the tea leaves and the divining sticks.
By the way, I was absolutely delighted to see the SNP at 6% in the Marginals poll in ICM’s “North” region.
The SNP usually get about 6% - 9% in ICM’s (rather odd) “North” region, but to get 6% when ICM were only polling in the 7 tightest LAB/CON seats in Scotland is truly remarkable. Out of those 7 Scottish seats where ICM carried out the fieldwork, only Ochil & South Perthshire had a significant SNP vote in 2005 (29.9%); and then you have all those LAB/CON North England seats amalgamated into the same geographical sub-sample.
Top story in today’s Glasgow Herald (usually staunchly pro-Labour):
‘Right turn for Britain as voters back Tories’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/right-turn-for-britain-as-voters-back-tories-1.1001471
Is this what (arch-Blairite) Jim Murphy means when he says he wants the election to focus on the Cons and Labs? I doubt it!
20. I didn’t say it was all the Tories fault. I said the Tories wouldn’t have done anything much differently than New Labour in terms of regulation. They probably would have made the problem worse by making weakening regulation. But that’s not something I can prove for certain.
On issues of the economy the Tories were remarkably silent during the good times. And then only started speaking up when the US brought the world to its knees in this global recession. The Tories have nothing to offer still.
The City remains largely unconvinced by Osborne. I think most are probably praying Brown can cling on to power with Darling by his side after the next election.
The most deserving way for Gordon and Labour to exit the longest and deepest recession in memory would be with Q4 2010 ‘growth’ reported as being exactly 0%</strong?.
It would be the defining end to “no more boom and bust”.
27 What this New Labour adnministration has done to the Labour movement is quite pround and twofold:
1. They have destroyed the residual image that is somehow nice. All the spin, bullying, smearing, lying, troughing, failures to resign, brazen in-your-face bullshit has just piled up too deep. The headline the other day about Campbell was ‘Shameless, unrepentant and still lying’. That is now the Labour party’s image. No wonder most people now associate themsleves more with Dave.
2. They have again destroyed the party’s reputation with money matters. How long will be before the floating voters of middle England will ever trust Labout not to bankrupt us? However quickly the upcoming Labour civil war lasts, however united they can become, there will always remain the fact that as a tribe they exist to waste our tax money. It’s what they are. The financial detox will need at least 10 years.
28 Richie Rich
You are living in the pluperfect subjunctive:
‘what would the Tories have done had they been in power’.
This is clearly having a deleterious effect on your health. My advice is to move to another tense.
The present continuous does not offer much help:
‘Brown and Labour are destroying Britain’s economy and society’.
So why not seize the future:
‘Cameron and the Tories will - with pain and over time - solve the problems inherited from Labour’.
I wish upon you inner peace and good health.
Feb 18- go for it Gordon! Half-term- Lots of Tories skiing. Your best bet.
‘Britain has grown more conservative under Labour’
- Britain has become a more conservative country in the past two decades, both politically and socially, an official study of public attitudes shows
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7072710/Britain-has-grown-more-conservative-under-Labour.html
32 Gordon being Gordon would ask his officials when half term is in order to pull some wangle like that. They would tell him. He would set the date accordingly and announce it. Two minutes later someone would point out that private schools work on a slightly different timetable to the state schools and for them it was not half term. The vast majority of the ’skiers’ would still be in the UK whilst in fact his own tribe were in Tenerife getting drunk and laid. Nokias would fly, words would be spoken and Gordon the master tactician would triumph once again (not).
28. The only City types praying for a Labour victory are those who are shorting gilts.
34 - I have found the postal service from St Moritz rather good in the past, if Gordon calls an election during the hols, I shall take great delight in sending my postal vote from the Kempinski Grand.
3 - “You mean just hobbling over the line to achieve the position most leading Western economies reached months and months ago?”
you are of course right.
However, that memo does not seem to have reached Sky News……
‘Minimum pricing of alcohol does not go far enough, says Royal Society of Edinburgh’
- Minimum pricing has been supported by a broad coalition of health professionals and drinks industry figures
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article7001951.ece
Very interesting that the words and actions of the Scottish Labour Party and the Scottish Lib Dems differ so starkly from their English colleagues. I wonder why?
“this will underline their argument that their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right ”
But the fact the recession has been the deepest on record and we are the last major economy to emerge from it will undermine that same argument.
Labour will make a great deal of this… but then 3 months ago a fleet of black cars were circling Parliament Square when we were expected to ‘officially’ pull out of recession then.
In one of the early posts in the new year, one poster said that we only had £7bn of the £200bn Quantitative Easing left. What seems to me much more important that a ?0.001 increase in economic growth is what happens when we hit the £200bn buffers?
Does the MPC authorise more? Sterling falls out of bed.
Does the MPC call time? Sterling falls out of bed.
Now, that will bring back inevitable comparisons with Healey and the IMF. And it can’t be far away now. The ‘coming out of recession’ is a 3-day sideshow before Chilcott. But the effect of Sterling falling out of bed and inflation romping away kills the meme their approach to dealing with the economic crisis has been right and that of the Tories wrong
13 = “Will Gordon Brown really expect people to go out and start spending if the figures are positive? Surely not. Nobody with any sense would start spending when we’re all going to shortly receive the worst gas/electricity bills in our lives.”
Your comment reminded me of my shopping trip at the weekend.
On Sunday off I went to spend some book vouchers given to me by some friends for my bithday.
I wouldn’t say the shops were dead, they were however significantly quieter than they used to be.
On employment, yet another friend lost their job last week and I am aware of many job losses over the last couple of months.
Nome of my friends who have lost thei jobs have landed a new one (to be fair one did turn down a job at 50% salary compared to last job).
I am aware of so many people who have had pay freezes and/ or taken unpaid leave to preserve their jobs (including people who have already been told 2010 will be more of same). Long time before we get a feel good factor i’m afraid.
Guest on Sky injecting some reality re end of recession - he reckons figures will be between 0.2 and 0.4 increase.
Q4 finished 4 weeks ago. It’s a measure of the past. Did you feel like things were getting better in the runup to Xmas? Then you will understand a positive reading? For everyone else, the number is meaningless.
The danger for Gordon is in celebrating growth, when it takes time before people feel the benefit. They should stick to the recovery and it’s fragility.
Out of recession? Only if you accept GDP as a genuine measure, rather than the smoke and mirrors it is.
Everybody seems to be assuming that there will be a return to growth. This was also said about Q4 2009, and it turned out not to be the case. So far all the surprises of this recession have been how much worse it has been than forecast.
28 - Hate to break it to you Richie…..
News from the city, 95% of the people I speak to want Labour gone.
You might want to find a different straw to clutch.
I see the thread is already filling up with those who predicted the FTSE at 3500, House Pircies through the floor, a spiral in crime and unemployment of 3 million..
All of them queuing up to tell us that the reasons they were so catastrophically wrong on everything was nothing to do with the Government action
29 Correction
Q4 2010 = Q4 2009!
18 Output per head is 1% lower than it was at the time at the last election. Labour will therefore be asking people to vote for a party that has reduced their standard of living.
Given that Labour will have driven public spending up from 37% of GDP to 52% of GDP between 2000 and 2010, I think the one thing that we can safely say is that they have *not* been following the same economic policies as the previous government.
46 The reality is bad enough tim. See 48.
And QE should be over in a couple of weeks. The return of inflation, coupled with the failure to stem monetary contraction, guarantees it. Only political pressure on the MPC can surely extend the program now.
Another good reason for Gordon to go early.
I hope we get a viewer discretion warning first if he’s planning on giving it a try.
What a brilliant observation Seth. Spot on and post of the day already.
Unfortunately Tim, they were more accurate than people who predicted the recession would be light and we’d come out of it first. Like the PM.
49 - I suppose if we ignore the rest of the world you’d have a point.
If we do take account of a world economy then
LIVING standards in Britain are set to rise above those in America for the first time since the 19th century, according to a report by the respected Oxford Economics consultancy.
The calculations suggest that, measured by gross domestic product per capita, Britain can now hold its head up high in the economic stakes after more than a century of playing second fiddle to the Americans.
It says that GDP per head in Britain will be £23,500 this year, compared with £23,250 in America, reflecting not only the strength of the pound against the dollar but also the UK economy’s record run of growth and rising incomes going back to the early 1990s.
In those days, according to Oxford Economics, Britain’s GDP per capita was 34% below that in America, 33% less than in Germany and 26% lower than in France. Now, not only have average incomes crept above those in America but they are more than 8% above France (£21,700) and Germany (£21,665).
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3137506.ece
28 “I think most are probably praying Brown can cling on to power with Darling by his side after the next election”
Dream on….
Labour has its narrative for today, but the real test today is for the Conservatives. Can they get across their message that they’re pleased that the recession is finally at an end, but “thanks to Labour”, it was the longest and deepest since the end of World War Two and that we’re later out of recession than all of our rivals, so why would you trust this mob with the recovery?
Any competent opposition ought to do that. Oddly, there has been no sign yet that the Tories are gearing up for this, but the day is young I suppose.
“I suppose if we ignore the rest of the world you’d have a point.”
The fact that my standard of living has dropped is okay because it’s dropped further elsewhere? I think not.
57 - I wouldn’t expect most of the Conservatives on here to take world comparisons on anything into account, thats why they’ve all got their predictions wrong for the last year.
tim
Take a few moments to read that article and you will realise your (several) errors.
GDP per capita is much higher in the US, than virtually anywhere in the world. Including the UK.
O/T You mean that it is a big day for the BBC.
Just been listening to R5 live and the end of the recession is being trumpeted with AC/DC back to black and lots of chats with bods in various parts of the country talking about the economic situation.
They have also bought the govts line that the economy is fragile and nothing must be done to put the recovery at risk.
And they are meant to be neutral!!!!!!!!!
No Conservative has come close to the dire prediction that was “we are best placed to deal with the recession.”
3 - “You mean just hobbling over the line to achieve the position most leading Western economies reached months and months ago?”
This just reminds me of the London marathon a few years back where the majority of runners finished within a few hours of the race commencing. That is with the exception of one character who undertook the entire distance in a deep sea diving suit with lead boots and as such ended up finishing a week later.
58 – What are you talking about tim, Gordon Brown got his predictions wrong, the Chancellor got his predictions wrong.
Why do you conveniently forget who is actually in power and the significant number here who claimed there was no recession at all..?
Goodness Mike. Just how long does a recession have to be before the final return to growth isn’t touted as “proof” Labour’s policy helped recovery.
54. These figures calculated right before the bubble burst - and on exchange rates much higher than we were today. Even if we hadn’t had a worst recession than the US, we would still be 20% down based on the collapse in sterling alone.
62-But remember the guy in the diving suit ended up a hero and the one person all could recall.
‘Day One of Caledonian Mercury Attracts Almost 30,000 Unique Visitors’
http://www.allmediascotland.com/press_news/24293/Day-One-of-Caledonian-Mercury-Attracts-Almost-30,000-Unique-Visitors
‘Caledonian Mercury launches web challenge to Scottish national press’
- Nation’s first web-only daily launches with a range of niche interests and a roster of freelancing former Scotsman journalists
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/25/caledonian-mercury-scottish-press
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8478062.stm
64 - The rise in US unemployment has been far worse than ours as well so we’ll have to judge the total impact including lots of factors.
The Social Attitudes survey is interesting which shows party identification withe Tories bove Labour for the first time since 1990.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7002262.ece
How that relates to voting given Majors record Tory total votes is unclear.
‘Iain Gray: still the best man for the job’
- Labour’s leader may be gaffe-prone but, sadly for the party, they are few candidates to take over from him
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6999917.ece
54 Nice try, tim, but output has contracted sharply since 2007, and sterling has fallen by 20% or so.
Over the past decade, we’ve had the lowest annual growth since the 1940s. That’s not a record that’s defensible.
58. And I wouldn’t expect you to actually take in-date comparisons into account, due to the mess your government has presided over the last two years. GB’s “prudence” and disregard for his own golden rule finally caught up with him.
The only reason we haven’t been downgraded is that analysts around the world expect a Tory government after the election.
Just thank God Hague and IDS stopped Labour taking us into the Euro. Then we would have really be in trouble.
Blog post on: The Great Recession? http://tinyurl.com/y88yxno
Ladbrokes - Month of next election
May 1/5
March 11/2
June 8/1
April 16/1
February 20/1
70 - Just thank God Hague and IDS stopped Labour taking us into the Euro.
Can’t top that for satire.
Post of the day.
Just a done a YouGov survey so another poll soon - what a surprise. I am now tantalsingly .15 pints short of my £50 - another one soon please YouGov!
‘Don’t play the Orange card folks, it’s a joker’
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/site/dont-play-the-orange-card-folks-its-a-joker/
What a mess Cameron is making in Ulster.
“…is what happens on April 23rd - the day the growth figures for the first quarter of 2010 are due out. What would going back into recession, as might happen, do to Labour’s core case only days before people vote?”
As it takes two quarters of negative growth to be called a recession, surely this cannot technically happen before the likely election date?
76 That subtlety would likely be lost if the economy posted negative figures at that time.
7. Richie Rich: “I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.”
An interesting comment, albeit one coloured by party loyalty perhaps. Personally, the businesses I deal with are hanging on by cutting pay rather than jobs as they remember how tough it was to grow after the past recessions having lost key people through redundancy.
As a consequence, the staff involved are feeling squeezed from three directions: a pay cut of 10% or more for doing the same work, tax rises (VAT, fuel and car tax, NI pending) and inflation in the weekly shopping (big rises in dairy products last week). For them, the return to growth is going to seem other-worldly.
But the simple question is, from an electoral perspective, will sufficient middle-Englanders in the towns of the midlands and the south give credit to Brown and/or buy the message that Cameron and Osborne will cut too soon. I suspect that too many of them fall into the description above of those who are hurting too much to be even listening to Brown.
R56
73. Continuing your habit of resorting to inanities when your posts are destroyed using fact and reasons?
The point is true and you know it. The keep the pound campaigns caused New Labour to paint the Tories’ actions as scare-mongering, which in turn meant they couldn’t force us into the euro without looking like hypocrites. And if we had been in the Euro we would be facing choking monetary policy right now.
GB would put the election at half term just to annoy the skiers. I’ll be posting my vote anyway, but I want to be home so that I can be ‘up for balls’
75 Stuart
The people who are making the mess are the local politicians. A bunch of overpaid prime donnas, banditti and executive jelly. The curfrent talks are their latest attempt to get someone else to talk the blame for their chronic failure as human beings.
http://sluggerotoole.com/index.php/weblog/comments/because-politicians-here-arent-grown-up-enough-to-take-their-own-decisions/
Still look on the bright side give 10 years and that could be Holyrood.
41 coming out of recession.Even if theconomy come sout of recession the nett result is that GDP is till lower than whenwe went into recession.Lesson in arithmeric for gordon.If your hous priced dropped from £200,000 to £150,000 during the recession but then went up by £10,000 you are still £40,0000 worse off -as is the UK.
Being the last G20 economy to leave recession.
5 million out of work and rising - nearly 17% of the working population.
having driven the country to the edge of bankruptcy to achieve these dubious aims.
Brown would be better of crawling away under a rock and hoping people forget he ever existed.
79 - Whether you like Brown or not, support the Euro or not, everyone with even a superficial knowledge of British politics knows that Brown kept Britain out of the Euro much to Blairs frustration.
The idea that this was related to William Hague or IDS is frankly laughable.
Do Labour imagine that they can convince people that the recession was entirely down to external factors (”It started in America”) without any element of government mistakes, but that the first faint hints of recovery are entirely due to the government’s efforts, and do not reflect the fact that many of our trading partners emerged from recession last year?
Voters are not that stupid and if Labour hope this they may well be mistaken.
The last government got precisely nowhere with such an argument - and in 1997 the country had been out of recession for several years, long enough to feed through into people’s pockets.
Mandelson was excellent this morning. The best prime Minister we never had. John redwood warmed me towards Gordon again. When you remind yourself of the conditions in the 80’s and early 90’s during Redwoods time you realize what an exceptional chancellor Gordon has been.
58. Tim …. But very dim!
Re. Uk Recession.
Sit down shut up and listen.
We were last in and last out, get it numpty, so what does that say about the F4ckwit in No.10.
Also we are CRIPPLED SKY HIGH in Government debt, that was spiralling, even before we bailed out the bank!
Now get back to ya farm animals and STFU
52 Maggie Thatcher Fan
Thanks MTF.
I should have included Yellow Sub’s observation yesterday that when out canvassing Labour voters he noted the soft:hard voter ratio at a never previously experienced 15:1.
It is the aggregation and evaluation of all these type of comments that paints the real picture.
78 ..and therein lies the direction that Osborne should take on debt. The rewards of public sector work are no longer commensuarte with the risk. terms and conditions and pension arrangements have become ‘fat cat’ country.
If an incoming administration announced up front its intetnion to redress that balance and order pay cuts across the board but, as far as reasonable, less compulsory redundancies then we should see a very menaingful impact on spending with close to zero impact on service delivery.
No doubt the Labour funding unions would do all in their power to frustrate it though.
80 JSK - I’ll be posting my vote anyway, but I want to be home so that I can be ‘up for balls’
Help make it happen. Go to http://www.myconservatives.com/campaigns/antony-calvert-for-morley-and-outwood and make a donation to their campaign fund. You know it makes sense.
86 - Shockingly, I found myself agreeing with Redwood on something.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7072505/John-Redwood-dont-jail-burglars-and-car-thieves.html
87 - Thanks Wayne! Now put down the aerosol and move back!
Our competitors have had two recessions this decade!
Spray that on your local bus shelter!
54 “the UK economy’s record run of growth and rising incomes going back to the early 1990s”
Yes tim, we really should thank John Major. But imagine how far ahead we would be if Ken Clark had been Chancellor for two decades? Instead of that chap Brown…
You can see how the British economy is steaming ahead of the USA by the massive wave of economic migrants from America beating a path to our shores…
86
“…what an exceptional chancellor Gordon has been.”
Dictionary definition of ‘exceptional’
“Being an exception; uncommon; needing special attention or presenting a special problem”
Yep, that would just about sum up Gordon. He was an exceptional Chancellor in the same way that Harold Shipman was an exceptional doctor. And he has treated the British economy and the British public in much the same way.
54. The UK $ GDP figure has fallen 30% since Q1 2008. Britain peaked at $2.9 trillion (£1.45 trillion @ $2/£1 - calendar 2008). The most recent quarterly GDP reported by ONS was £315 billion, which at $1.62, is $510 billion, or $2.04 trillion if multiplied by 4. In Sterling the recession is a decline of nearer 15% than 6%.
The supposed Q4 recovery is .4%. Unemployment has stabilised at best. Those finding new jobs are taking big pay cuts on their previous jobs.
There could be a second leg of recession as interest rates are now rising, and QE will be squeezed accordingly. Brown trying to spin the economy isn’t worth much, I’m afraid, maybe a sad chuckle, but that’s all.
52. In which case Seth might have two contenders.
I LOLed at his post to Richie Rich (31).
92 tim
Tut tut. I thought you had given up the aggression since crossing the floor to the Welch Rationalists!
93 - MM - Clarke seems to be more unnerved by proximity to Osborne at the moment.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/ken-clarke-warns-george-osborne-against-making-great-cuts-with-calamitous-consequences.html
Perhaps Darling-Clarke should take charge of the economy, as the 40% econoomist seems to be making Ken nervous.
Gordon may smile, but he’ll be the only one. Under his watch, Britain led the world into recession and followed it out. Unemployment is soaring, our children will be paying off the debts we have accrued over the last decade, and politicians on both sides are too scared of the media to begin to discuss the cuts needed. So Gordon will have precious little to smile about if he cares for anything beyond a cheap headline.
Come the election, Gordon will have one thing - and only one thing - to play to the voters. “I got you through the worst economic slump since the price of stone collapsed in the Stone Age.” A 0.4% or so rise in GDP will be the signal that we should drape him in garlands and drive him through London in a ticker-tape parade. A nation eternally prostrate in its gratitude.
At the cost of burdening us with growth-destroying interest payments for decades to come. A massive dose of pain-killers has left us addicted to them, the side effects worse than the original ailment.
Yes Gordon. A nation eternally prostrate…
97 - Its a judo technique, I will turn the power of Waynes exlamation marks back against him.
No
It is very fashionable to put down John Redwood and indeed i used to be in that camp,but last year i went to an event and heard him speak and take questions from a very hostile audience.
He was astonishing.Both intellectual and down to earth with an empathy that i certainly did not expect him to have.
His economic ideas are based on reality rather than highbrow economics.
Well! it won’t make things worse.
Good to see that ICM are falling in with my prediction for the GE, a Nomaj is certainly on the cards.
Delighted that the Libdems are doing well, I’ve got them down as 20/22, looks more like the 22.
104, didn’t ICM show a marginally increased Tory lead of 11 points?
Anyway, polls now are a pointer, but the election is a long way off both in terms of time and campaigning.
103 Couldn’t agree more. I am a regular reader of his blog. His views and more importantly his prescriptions for fixing the still broken banks is spot on. Osborne should seriously consider inviting him to be the BoE governor.
I am not quite sure why he is such a hate figure for the left. I am sure there are others Tories who deserve it more.
103.
“It is very fashionable to put down John Redwood”
Unfortunately,Vulcans cannot be treated like over-frisky old hounds. Hang on, isn’t he both?
106 - The stuff on prisons policy at 91 is the most sensible thing I’ve heard from a Tory for years.
Of course Cameron will mess around with prison ship nonsense in the short term, but once he grows up a bit he should listen to Redwood on the issue of short term prison sentences.
98.
“Ken Clarke warns George Osborne against making “great cuts with calamitous consequences”"
He shouldn’t bother. With Khammereon committed to spend spend spend (new schools, new prisons and of course more cash to the married which has to come from somewhere) GideO can retire to his corner and learn how to move up from his toes to a bead-rack undisturbed (well, no more disturbed than when he started).
LabourList is still entertaining, though markedly worse than the epic lunacy that marked the scruffy hypnotherapist’s time in charge:
http://www.labourlist.org/poll-list-tories-flatline-40-but-labour-cant-capitalise
Tories flatline on election winning vote share, but Labour fail to capitalise by, er, losing vote share.
Redwood’s reputation stems from his leadership contest. A tory contesting for the leadership from the right always gets ridiculed. Worse for Redwood, it was too early for him and when he put his name forward it was a time when all tories were reviled.
Such are the dangers of ambition, but anyone who knows Redwood’s thoughts will appreciate that he is a liberal in the classic tradition. The label of far right nut has stuck unfairly to him though, such is life.
54. The ONS publishes a whole range of economic stats - not just GDP. The figures for production to November 2009, which are not so easily massages as unemployment and spending, show that production is down 13% since 2005. They rose until 2007. This also indicates that the downturn is a fair whack more than 6%.
Index of Production (2005=100) Nov 09 13 Jan 10 86.8
105
I’m sure Mike will correct me, (he always does) as polls seem to round up the nearest whole, (years ago some used to work to 0.5, ORC in ‘70 was the only poll to show the Tories ahead by 1.5 % I seem to remember) 1% is no change really: 0.4 down 0.5 up.
86. “Mandelson was excellent this morning. The best prime Minister we never had. John redwood warmed me towards Gordon again. When you remind yourself of the conditions in the 80’s and early 90’s during Redwoods time you realize what an exceptional chancellor Gordon has been.”
One to savour I think.
I agree that it’s good to see ICM come near my own thoughts for an election. But it isn’t a nomaj prediction
On topic, I ruddy well hope we’re out of recession so that we have a sniff of a hope of an inflation-rate pay rise this year!
A bit of job security would be nice after 2009 too.
As for Gordon smiling, that grin is a vote-loser so lets hope that is true too
If the Irish Assembly falls apart, what price Gordon Brown calling a Westminster election at the same time?
110 - Flatlining on 40..
Straws being clutched.
Economic Drift
Until the costs and regulation involved with setting up and running a business in the UK decrease significantly, multinationals will continue the drift to Eastern Europe and Asia of manufacturing and service operations that are cheaper to operate in those countries. As well as not suffering threats from trade unions of pay up or we strike.
I expect the Q12010 figures for GDP to be either static or a return to negative figures.
Even Mandelson this morning recommends caution for 2010
111
Liberal! he certainly is.
John Redwood launched an impassioned fightback last night against claims by his former wife, Gail, that he deserted her.
Friends of the former Tory minister put the blame for the couple’s increasingly acrimonious break-up on Mrs Redwood, claiming that she began distancing herself from him after he failed to win the Tory leadership in 1995. They said that Mrs Redwood, a high-flying former barrister, never forgave her husband for failing to depose John Major.
The fall-out came just days after the couple’s divorce, ending their 29-year marriage, went through. Mrs Redwood, 55, sold her story last night to a tabloid newspaper, accusing her former husband of having a close relationship with Nikki Page, his former researcher, much earlier than he has admitted
His family values pitch will be worth hearing when he leads the coup against Cameron.
98. I’m impressed that Ken Clarke has the courage to publicly back the government’s policy on locking in the recovery. It would be easy for him to sit silently in the background with this being an election year, pretending to back Osborne’s disastrous vision should the Tories win the next election.
111.
Washe not also George Smith’s campaign manager? Such great judgement is not far off the same class as Lembit Opik on Mark Oaten.
91.I suppose if you just follow right wing economic solutions to everything it throws up some interesting bi-products. Quite what Dave’ll do with his extra prisons and longer sentences if Redwood’s plan were to be implimented……..
115
One academic study suggests that if today’s figures were repeated on election day the Conservatives would win 326 seats – a majority of one.
Well, not much in it.
As for the marginal polls, I wonder how much different they’ll be on the day, not much I don’t think.
54. Government revenues will not be reported until the Budget. They fell from April 2008 to April 2009 from £606 billion to £496 billion. The current forecast is for £498 billion to April 2010, made in the 2009 Budget.
Yet the recession lasted another two quarters, and it is unlikely the figure will be achieved, even though Darling repeated the forecast in the PBR as if nothing. It is more likely government revenues will be £450 billion or so by April unless the ‘recovery’ acquires some reality.
That would be a sterling valued fall of 25% in two years.
Spending has risen by far bigger amounts due to the need to quantitatively ease. The government’s finances must look absolutely orrible, but they ain’t going to admit it.
All we need is Gabble to turn up and I think we’ll have the full set of the Red Brigade present this morning
RR, suggest you read this before you continue to make a pratt of yourself.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5730208/what-tory-split.thtml
I am not a tory of course, yet found Redwood honest when we discussed the complex issue of rape a year or two back, not that my less than politically correct views could be fully printed in his blog.
That a bangladeshi girl who was raped when 16 was lashed over a hundred times and her rapist was pardoned tells me all i need to know about the extremes in the muslim faith and its approach to women, at least in that backward village.
Equality seems along way away unfortunately, yet (cleaning this up for PB) as i said to Redwood after many a drunken night “on the job” in my student days, there is a grey area, a fine line some times after 10 beers each between what is deemed legal and what is not.
There’s no way the economy can go back into recession before the election. Recession has scary strict definition of two consecutive quarter. of negative growth, which clearly wouldbe Q1 & Q2 at the earliest, after the last possible election date.
I know some people will think I’m just playing semantics, but actually it’s a very important point to get right. There’s a world of difference, economically and politically, between a quarter of negative growth and recession.
127 - “I know some people will think I’m just playing semantics”
Not really Joe, you are repeating what has already been mentioned up thread.
124: One might think they were waiting for something…
Morning all.
Nadal breaks Murray in the third game of the match.
That’s not very nice Coldie. What has his private relationships got to do with his being a liberal or not?
O/T Further to yesterday’s speculations, Dizzy has had a punt on an election before May:
http://dizzythinks.net/2010/01/if-gdp-grows-will-dissolution-of.html
Murray a break down already.
130: Can we say he’s scottish now?
115 - If those at the Sun are on payment by results you’ll be getting a big payout.
If the target was to help the Labour Party.
131
Well, Liberal has many meanings. With, ‘Family Values’ being much in vogue at the moment, we all love the family now don’t we? The problem is some people, ‘love’ other peoples families more than their own.
The economy may have technically left recession, but at the cost of HUGE debt which will soon have to reduced, which will be painful and difficult.
The paying off of this debt - and the main effects of the recession - will not come until after the election.
I fervently hope people will not be taken in by the furious spinning we will get today. The pain has in large part been deferred and drawn out. We are very far from the edge of the woods.
Tories need to be coherent and damning, but not too doom-laden, offering an optimistic alternative whilst leaving no doubt about the blame for all this mess.
Murray breaks straight back. And the Scotsman will win this fairly comfortably tonight. Nadal is nowhere near back to his best level and is making tons of UEs. 4/5 was a great price on Murray. Cilic will beat him though.
And Murray promptly breaks back…
130, of course they are. Everyone at pb.com is.
But my next F1 article is probably going to be after the Jerez test at the earliest, and we can’t simply stop commenting on politics just because everyone’s waiting for it
Well, Liberal has many meanings. With, ‘Family Values’ being much in vogue at the moment, we all love the family now don’t we? The problem is some people, ‘love’ other peoples families more than their own.
by coldstone January 26th, 2010 at 9:22 am
I thought we had already ascertained that you are in no position to lecture on the issue of families, because you are blatantly crap at running the one in your own home.
138: British then….
140: Indeed..coldstone is of course the person which hates everything…especially his own son.
133.
I know Murray’s just broken back, but your post reminds me of a brilliant Spitting Image sketch many years ago. It was (I think) a new bulletin read by Trevor McDonald about Barry McGuigan with the lines - “He arrived as the great British hope, and left as the unlucky Irishman”
My guess = 0.3 - 0.4
Any more and its dreamland for Brown.
Those of you with bets on the tunrout might be interested in the latest Social Trends survey published today.
It suggests “The number of people who feel they have a civic duty to vote has fallen sharply. Just over a half of people (56%) believe everyone has a “duty” to vote in general elections, down from 68% in 1991. Among the under 35s, just 41% feel this way.”
133/138. Slackbladder.
I was tempted to use such terminology to describe the match, but decided against it. And it seems I don’t need to
Nadal has lost two Hawk-eye challenges already (the second by the tiniest of margins) and Murray one.
Murray faced three break points in game 5 but holds for 3-2.
Grew 0.1%. Effectively nothing.
0.1% on BBC.
0.1%
Well technically that is out of recession but are our Labour lovies on here really going to crow about it?
What a bunch of losers.
146. 0.05000000000000001% ?
Nasty for UK and Brown.
May 6th is now the earliest date for GE IMHO.
BOOM: Recession is over. Time for the Tories to start panicking.
Yes, 0.1%.
About as unconvincing as it’s possible to get.
0.1%….cutting it close then…
0.1% is really nothing when you consider
i) Christmas boost
ii) VAT boost caused by people trying to beat the VAT rise
Odds on a Q1 decline, and the effect the odds might have on a Labour GE decision?
150 - “BOOM: Recession is over. Time for the Tories to start panicking”
Boom..?
you t1t.
0.1%, we really are screwed aren’t we.
Is Gordo going to proclaiming he saved us all? Come off it!
137 - I hope the last part is right, I’m on Cilic at 46.
@150: I remind you of your post at 7.
“Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240. I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.”
Wow 0.1%. Much Nokia throwing resulted in the ONS improving on their original figure of 0.0% “growth”
Next question: when do the revisions come out?
Does 0.1% count as a Margin of Error?
150: “Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240.” (RR @ 4.03)
Hope you didn’t bet the ranch.
Oh dear. Putting aside the partisan political considerations, as a nation, we really are fcuked aren’t we?
0.1% in a Xmas period…..
The UK is weaker than weakling weak man whilst the rest of the G20 are pumping iron.
RR, any clues how long it will take to get back to where we were when we went into recession?
It would be good to put on a poster with Gordon looking down upon his loyal subjects.
I mean 0.1% is news good enough to ride to an election victory on isn’t it?
Looks like the 0.1% was rounded up
0.1%… That doesn’t look good. I know we can’t technically go back into recession next quarter but if we have ‘negative growth’ it would be hard to argue that we are really out.
No pay rise this year then
The reason I ask, of course, is that when Labour go strong on “END OF RECESSION” - if the figure’s revised downwards they’re completely toast.
Murray breaks for 4-2.
Wonder what Darling economic forecasts look like given a 0.1% growth in Q4? The old trampoline is looking like the springs as mighty bust.
Sterling loses half a cent against the dollar on the news. Hope richie rich had a stop in place, or he’ll be paulie poor.
140
Well I’ve had forty happy years of marriage, and never played around etc. As for my youngest son, I’m honest we never got on, there’s no law that says you have to like your children, plenty of parents don’t you know. Having said that, I always did my best for him, university a good degree etc, he decided to make his own way: good luck to him.
I also don’t preach family values to anyone else etc. Mr Redwood belongs to a party that seems to delight in doing so.
BBC reacting like they’ve just been told that there is no Father Christmas.
@163: It is not good at all. Dismally, there is a prospect that we will be back in negative territory for 1Q2010. I sincerely hope not.
0.1% with government spending and the car industry (due to scrappage scheme) being strong contributors. can’t see Q1 figures being any good.
168: Definitly British….
Certainly no time to cut spending.
As I said..the answer to Mike’s question is ‘no’.
Brown’s trip to Belfast yestreday was a big clue here. I sold sterling ahead of the number and have just closed out for a small profit.
It’s a very, very disappointing number. And of course there’s a strong risk that 2010Q1 could be worse as some of the stimulus effects fade. Disastrous for Labour.
If, and I stress IF, the first revision of the Q4 GDP figures from the ONS takes us back into negative territory, then will we still in recession? Such a weak growth as announced today is almost as bad as a marginal decline in GDP given the start to 2010.
Of course there’s always the possibility this might get rounded down quietly in a month’s time, just like at the start of the recession. But nevertheless it is good news.
Can someone release my post number 145, it does contain betting implications.
No wonder Gordo went to Belfast.
The 0.1% is only an estimate. It will be revised up like the last estimates.
And yes I’m out for an immediate loss on my sterling position. I don’t want to ride out those market moves today could be a real roller coaster given this estimate will drive market manipulators.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8479639.stm
First estimates of how the economy has performed are made with about 40% of the data available, and Investec economist David Page has warned there is “plenty of room for surprises” in the figures.
On topic. If he smiles about this he’ll look more of a Cnut than he usually does.
Turning back the tide of global recession… in case you think ‘m being rude about our dear leader.
I take it that’s May/June on again unless the BBC/Mirror ‘out of recession celebration week’ gets some traction with the public
I presume we now need two quarters of negative growth to officially go back into recession, so it’s recovery all the way for Brown
7.Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240. I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.
A prediction of Roger-equse proportions.
Return to Boom and Bust…..
Return to Boom and Bust…..
0.1%. Trying, like astateofdenmark, to put aside partisan considerations, if Brown starts expecting wild congratulations whatsover for 0.1%, he’s going to be laughed at.
That probably won’t stop him, but this is such a small figure he needs to be very careful how he plays it now.
181. You are a total spanner. I hope you lost a packet.
“…I also don’t preach family values to anyone else etc. Mr Redwood belongs to a party that seems to delight in doing so…”
Liar.
“..Well I’ve had forty happy years of marriage, and never played around etc…”
176. Yes - what with tax receipts plummeting and no growth on the horizon all we can do is max out our credit card and shaft our rating ASAP so that interest rates go up.
At least the news will be Balls free for 48hrs - I expect Darling to take another one for the team.
178. Richard 111:If, and I stress IF, the first revision of the Q4 GDP figures from the ONS takes us back into negative territory, then will we still in recession?
Yes.
this is catastrophic for labour.
it will blow a hole in labour’s useless deficit forecasts and all all credibility
Tweet:
@glenoglaza - Expect Sir Michael Wood to reveal his legal advice to ministers: That invading Iraq without a second UN resolution would be illegal
181. Stop the bullsh*t you’re not convincing anyone
181:181.The 0.1% is only an estimate. It will be revised up like the last estimates
Or it could be revised down…
Oh dear!
Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!
Oh dear!
Mike when is next AR poll due?If changes are similar to ICM we could see Lab and lib dems neck & neck.
190
Liar about what?
…and the answer is that revised Q1 GDP figures are released Friday 26 Feb.
0.1% HAHAHA is that all you got?
How sweet: it’s just like a real increase in GDP, only smaller.
Answer to the thread question: NO.
The economy only grew 0.1% despite the impact of Christmas. Without Christmas Q1 is looking very bad. Maybe Gordon Brown will be thinking that now is the time to go as the news may well only get worse.
Of course, I still can’t see him holding the election until the last possible moment. He loves being in power far too much and knows he is likely to lose and does not have the courage for a fight. He will be clinging to the doors of 10 Downing Street as they try and drag him away.
So Q4 2009 did surprise on the downside since the experts were suggesting 0.3-0.4% growth. Q1 2010 will be back to shrinking because of the tax rise, two weeks lost product due to snow, people spending less as they pay down the credit cards that brought about that 0.1% growth, and people spending less to pay for their heating bills. First into recession, last out, and the longest and deepest decline since WW2. The only good thing you can say about Brown’s stewardship of the economy is that he kept us out of the Euro, had Blair got his way we would be even further up the creek.
200
There’s still time for a Feb 25th GE.
189. Aren’t you a nice person? I have never wished a financial loss on anyone here. I wouldn’t wish that on even the most extreme Tory supporter.
Anyway at least I’m going to make about 1% back on my Murray punt. Not a good start to the day….
Morning all.
Like runnymede, I was anticipating a poor figure, partly because Gordon didn’t seem in a good mood yesterday, partly because of the trip to Belfast, and partly because Labour seemed remarkably quiet yesterday.
Certainly nothing to crow about here.
The Q1 figures could be dangerous for Brown. It is clear that any ‘recovery’ (actually, a better description is ‘bottoming out’) is fragile, and the bad weather in January will have hit retailers and many other businesses, which can’t help.
So I don’t think Brown will be smiling much today, at least not because of the economy.
In addition, the Northern Irish situation is a new danger for Labour. If they can’t cobble together an agreement, it will be an unwelcome reminder of the past.
There is a slight chance this figure will be revised down, there is more chance that over the coming wees it wil be revised up. Therefore, while this is nothing for Labour to shout about, it may also be worth the Tories keeping shtum for a while, as they could end up looking very foolish if the revisions keep going north.
In any case, none of it will make a blind bit of difference to the way people are going to vote.
When Darling stands up on Budget Day and delivers yet another growth forecast, what will the reaction be? His credibility is destroyed.
0.1%
Cue the red brigade scuttling back under the fridge.
I was bemused to see so much action from the bunker this morning. Now I am even more confused. The 0.1% message obviously never got through.
0.1%!!!
After all that QE
After all that borrowing
After the VAT cut
After the scrappage scheme
etc. etc. etc.
Cameron might do well to go down in the 11th, and lose this election, save himself a miserable time of it. Who would want to be in charge of this basket case country for the next few years?
What a joke.
How typical of the tortured world of Gordon Brown that he gets the only result that could seem worse than no growth or actual decline.He is a loser.
coldstone even someone with your failing faculties should spot the hypocrisy in these two statements.
“…I also don’t preach family values to anyone else etc. Mr Redwood belongs to a party that seems to delight in doing so…”
“..Well I’ve had forty happy years of marriage, and never played around etc…”
You really should get back to scanning the Daily Mail for stories you like. It is what you are reasonably good at.
203 - This is 0.1% with 40% of the data, so it is far from a finished figure. Wasn’t the UK later into recession than most other major economies? Ours was also less deep than both Germany’s and Japan’s. Small crumbs, I know, but there you go.
Symbolically it is still important of course, and I expect the spin will be out in force.
However, it’s very very dissapointing, and will be a knock to confidence, and does not bode well for economic data going ahead.
Brown, and labour will have to careful not to overdo this. The feel-good factor is not there.
Surely with growth being just 0.1% in Q4 theres a very real possibility that the with the general drop in spending that always occurs in January, plus all the disruptively snowy weather we had, we could see a drop back into negative territory for Q1 2010?
207 - “In any case, none of it will make a blind bit of difference to the way people are going to vote.”
Perhaps so. Which would much better news for Dave than for the Prime Minister. A potentially game-changing event has slipped by without offering any comfort for team red. There can’t be many left.
Can anyone with Betfair access let us know if there’ve been any changes on there this morning? I’d expect a moderate punt on the Tories to be occuring.
209 - Probably believed the Mirror and Times talk of 0.4%. Wonder where they got their figures?
207. “There is a slight chance this figure will be revised down, there is more chance that over the coming wees it wil be revised up. “
Not true. According to the ONS, there is no statistical bias in either direction
208 - In three months time the growth figure for Q$ 2009 will not be 0.1%.
I thought they’d get mocked for any ‘green shoots’ based argument even if it was higher than this.
This figure is going to be fillet steak for the satirists …
These statstics are always oversold bad or good. For the vast majority of people the odd % isn’t going to make much difference. Even if they were better, the usual cry would go up, they don’t tell the whole story or they’ve been fiddled one way of the other.
Recession over at 0.1%. So if Mrs Smith at 3 Acadia Avenue did not buy that extra tin of fish paste before Xmas we could have still been in recession.
:-0
215. GIN - yes it’s possible, although utilities output will probably have been strong (more heating etc) so there is some offset.
Murray has to save three break points in game 9, but on his third set point holds on to take the first set 6-3
Southam Observer @207
There is a slight chance this figure will be revised down, there is more chance that over the coming wees it wil be revised up. Therefore, while this is nothing for Labour to shout about, it may also be worth the Tories keeping shtum for a while, as they could end up looking very foolish if the revisions keep going north.
You do have a point. Also its better than the 0% growth we previously heard about.
In any case, none of it will make a blind bit of difference to the way people are going to vote.
However this is laughable. GDP growth figures are going to impact on the election narrative one way or another, and will also impact the moral of activists on all sides.
SO
Even if it does get revised up slightly over the next 2 months, the fact that it was so much lower than the original estimates, even with the impact of Christmas, end of VAT reduction, QE, low interest rates, weak pound, and massive government spending (bringing forward all that capital expenditure that Brown liked to bang on about), show the real weakness of our economy.
Essentially Labour have thrown everything they can at the economy, spent money that we don’t have, indebted our children and still only managed 0.1% growth. What do you think is going to happen once the fiscal stimulus runs out?
Labour have been taking actions to improve their short term political outlook rather than trying to build a sustainable recovery.
212
I still haven’t got the liar bit. I’ve always enjoyed the hypocrisy of politicians who stress their committment to family values, but never get around to practicing it themselves.
As for your obsession with my family life, which I’ve used to illustrate the problems that often arise in even the most stable of families. Perhaps your own parents didn’t like you, I’m quite sure I wouldn’t.
0.1% Jesus. That’s dismal. All that money spunked up the wall, and all it’s done is get us a rounding error out of recession.
So - if only 0.1% in Q4 2009, the expectation must be a very real likelihood that the economy will dip down again in Q1 2010.
March election then….
207 Yes but a better revised figure is never going to have quite the same impact as 5% today would have done. One can say 0.1% hahaha quite a lot of times between now and 26 February.
There is a serious leakage issue here. This is incredibly sensitive information (and I say that with the deepest respect to Richie Rich, no longer aptly so called, in this very difficult time for him) and everyone but everyone was in the know in advance that it was a rise. Future leakages could quite easily make the difference between a run on sterling and not. I hope the ONS is investigated.
O/T
Andrew Neil is really sticking it to the IPCC and the Climate change enthusiasts
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/01/the_dam_is_cracking.html
223. Yes, thats true. The utilities will do well from the cold.
204 Feb election - nil chance I would say. He may still try late Mar /early Apr if the Q4 revised figure due out late Feb improves markedly.
Sterling taking a predictable dive.
One of the boosting factors was government spending. Looking increasingly like we’re going to have a very slow recovery at best.
228 - And how would not have spending the money got us out recession more quickly?
…A better description is ‘bottoming out’.
That is a good description Richard - looking at the NIESR plot for GDP it would suggest we pretty much hit the bottom in March 2009, and ever since then we have been bumping along - there is no strong recovery to point to. Very disappointing if not entirely unexpected.
119.
“His family values pitch will be worth hearing when he leads the coup against Cameron.”
The James Goldsmith (hereditary) family values version of Toryism: Why have one thing you value when you can have two… or three?
PB on predictable form this morning.
Maybe if we had a simpler tax system big companies wouldn’t go to such extraordinary lengths to avoid it, and revenues might bounce back.
So, that’s the weakest period of growth post-war, followed by the longest recession, followed by anaemic recovery.
Yes, exceptional is the word.
207. The Tories should definitely shut up. But it’s hard for Osborne not to crow he’s always running for the TV cameras when there’s bad news for the UK economy. Today is not bad news though it’s vindication of the government’s policies moving us out of recession and back on a path towards strong growth.
217. I am certain the figure will be very close to 0.4% when the revisions are complete. There’s no way they will be revised down. So if the Tories do start using this figure as a basis to attack New Labour they are going to look very foolish when the numbers are finalised.
BBC girl reporter in Luton reporting on how the motor industry has “driven the economic recovery”. Grim faced, reading out an introduction she had written earlier.
Very poor figures for Labour, just dismal. So the Cabinet weren’t meeting to discuss an election, they were meeting to discuss how to sell this unbelievably weak economic recovery to the country.
0.1%. F*ck me. We’ve all been f*cking f*cked, by this f*ck-up of a government. Britain is once more the sick man of Europe, by a distance, we’re back where Labour left us, in 1979.
Even Ireland managed decent growth at the end of 2009. Yes, Ireland came out of recession before us.
But Britain: just 0.1% growth after six consecutive quarters of decline.
Jesus.
On and tim, your statement at 54 that we are now richer than Creases is just drivel. Look at the date on your article. Jan 2008.
Since then we have have the deepest and longest recession in modern history, and a currency collapse. Our economy has gone from fourth to seventh in size, we have been overtaken by France and Italy, we are now very much poorer per capita than America and by some measures we are poorer than the Germans, the French and the Italians.
We’ve all been f*cking f*cked by this f*ck-up of a government. Now please, New Labour, f*ck off.
239: Predictiable that labour f-up the economy? How right you are.
Business srvices and finance and agriculture still in recession.
Overall the change over the last 12 months rather than just the last quarter is -3.2%
Incidentally over the last 5 years the average revision to the initial estimates by the end of month 3 is -0.06 percentage points.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/breaking-news-top-fco-lawyer-ruled-iraq-war-illegal.html
Sir Michael Wood, the FCO’s Legal Adviser (ie its top man) during the 2003 Iraq war, advised that the conflict would be illegal.
coldstone, this will be my last comment to you today as I do not wish to bog down the thread.
You really need to have a think about your life. You have attempted to build up an internet persona as some sort of bluff old codger, with a vague military background, who says what he likes and likes what he bloody well says.
When in fact you are a bile filled, bitter and twisted old man. Your wife will have my undying admiration for sticking by you for 40 years.
There can be few people on the planet who would have done likewise.
The fact that you wouldn’t like me is taken as an accolade. If someone with your personality did like me I would be mortified.
92.
“Thanks Wayne! Now put down the aerosol and move back!”
I am intrigued tim, how can you tell over the internet that Wayne has got Martin Day on his shoulders?
Wonder what the mood is like in the BBC news department?
I envisage all them all excitedly waiting at 9.29am with champers in hand, party hats on and those noisemakers ready to blow……
244 - Calm down Sean, we’ve not had a currency collapse and and by some measures we are richer than the Germans, the French and the Italians.
239. Scum. You are scum. You lot have f*cked up my country.
If you come on this website, you should apologise for being a lefty before you do anything else. You should be grovelling for forgiveness. You should pour hot ashes on your head.
Scum. Labour scum. Scum. Useless lying devious incompetent scum.
I don’t think 0.1% is going to be enough to fool anyone to think that the recession is over. Take out the seasonal Christmas boost and we’re still negative.
I don’t know what this means for May 6th. It would be a disaster for Labour to have us slide “back” into recession a week before polling day, but 0.1% is hardly enough to cue dancing in the streets and GB sweeping back into power in a March or April election. Could this make June more likely on the basis people will have forgotten about potential bad news at the end of April?
I do think GB might think he’s not very much to lose by going in March or April, avoiding negative figures in the next quarterly update and avoiding having to announce a new budget, and going whilst the gap in the polls is -10 rather than possibly -15 in May/June.
Wonder what the mood is like in the BBC news department?
I envisage all them all excitedly waiting at 9.29am with champers in hand, party hats on and those noise makers ready to blow……
Politically speaking 0.1% is very damaging for Labour, any attempt to spin it as out of recession will be treated with the derision it deserves.
239. Jonathon, even you’ve got to admit 0.1% “growth” is pretty pathetic given all the money Labour have been throwing at the economy to bring us out of recession?
254 - I’m sure Gordo will give it a damn good go at PMQ’s!
253: Cycle 3months back when they had the last ‘we’re out of recession’ party and had to put the champers back on ice.
Well..time for a party, more Kwik-Save Cava than Champange though.
After reading a number of the hilarious `Richie Rich’ contributions on here, I am convinced that he/she is just another troll. The deadpan style of talking up Labour and its soon to be ex Ministers is precisely the same as that of a persistent troll on the Guido Fawkes site about a year ago. I can’t bring the name to mind, can anyone else?
231.
“Andrew Neil is really sticking it to the IPCC and the Climate change enthusiasts”
He has a vested interest in Climate Change being wrong. Why pay a fortune to have a wig knitted into your scalp if it warms up a brain which would overheat with global warming?
Richie Rich and Southam Observer you both seem convinced this estimate will be rounded up. Why? If you read the ONS press release you will see that they are expecting a rounding downwards
0.1% ffs. What have Labour being doing for the last eighteen months ffs?
Ffs Anyone would think they been injecting billions of our money into the economy ffs or something ffs
Pathetic totally pathetic ffs… Brown and Labour are economically F4cking useless,
I am furious ffs!
256, Brown may well be in Ireland for PMQs. How conveeeenient.
236 SO
Of course goverment spending is going to need to increase during a recession and it is well worth the government buying some things on the cheap when demand is down. However the effectiveness of what the money is spent on is vital. Labour have concentrated on short term feel good spending rather than building the foundations for a sustainable recovery.
0.1%????
And that’s after Christmas and the expected surge in sales to beat the VAT hike! We are really screwed aren’t we? If Brown has any gumption he will go for a March election, if he waits for May then it’s possible that the Q1 figures due around late April, could show a return to negative growth. Speaking of which,,,
GE Countdown
March 25th 59 days
May 6th 101 days
258: DES (Dirty European Socalist)..or Quitzapple. Amusing fellows to say the least.
251 - Have a lie down Sean.
260 ’cause we HAVE to be out of recession. What a shower
262: The clearest sign that labour are dissapointed for this. If it was something they could crow about Brown and his cronies would be there on Weds shouting it from the rooftops.
I expect to see the entire Cabinet in church on Sunday. Without Christmas they’d have been f*cked.
Guido with a video reminding us of Labour’s great predictions for the economy over the past couple of years,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGaDahB2Ysk
0.1%. How much money did HM Treasury hose away on the car scrappage scheme to achieve that stunning figure?
246. Which parts of the economy were actually growing?
250. Here’s a slightly more up-to-date article than the one you posted.
“In 2007, UK GDP per capita measured in US dollars was $45,890 – rivalling that of the United States and well ahead of that in Germany, France, Italy and Japan.
But now UK GDP per person has fallen to $35,590 – 23% lower than in the US and more than 10% lower than in Germany, France and Japan.
Indeed, measured in dollar terms, UK GDP per capita in 2009 was the same as in Italy, which is one of Europe’s most poorly-performing economies.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/31/economic-growth-recession-uk
With our aneamic recovery, soaring debt, appalling deficit, and badly managed public services, and with government spending now at an astonishing 52% of entire GDP, it’s a safe bet to say we will be overtaken by many other countries, too.
Britain, Now Poorer than Latvia. Vote Labour.
And this is 0.1% with £150bn of QE pumped into the economy?
Whats the betting QE will be continued a little longer…then a bit more….like morphine on a terminally ill patient.
254 - Brown famously trumpeted “zero per cent growth” at PMQs once. So painting 0.1% as a triumph and a vindication of his sound economic stewardship will not be beyond him…
272: Public sector out-sourcing no doubt.
In better news, Murray has taken the first set in the tennis.
Here’s some sanity for the hysterics on here.
Who comes away with most egg on their face after a figure like that? The economy may have grown 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009.
But does it make Gordon Brown look a bit premature in announcing the country’s out of recession?
This figure is preliminary and could be revised downwards. Or does David Cameron now look daft for saying we’re in the clear and should slam on the public spending cut brakes?
Neither gets a terrific shot in the arm from today’s figures.
The now long-established roughly 40/30/20 divide between the parties has not been dealt a mighty shock, it’s not a game-changing statistic and will probably just confirm people in the camps they already sit in.
http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/2010/01/26/were-out-of-recession-but-do-brown-and-cameron-look-daft/
Odd though it may seem these figures could be good news for Gordon. If we had had strong growth then Osborne could say, ‘The economy is back on track, now we need to cut’. Given the evident weakness in the economy the risks that premature cutting back on borrowing could push the economy back into recession is stronger. So that supports Brown’s case on spending against Osborne’s.
Given elections should be forward looking Labour’s case is a little stronger this morning.
254. What are you talking about? There’s no spin involved here. We are out of recession. And it’s great news for the government as the narrative now moves away from the recession.
The Tories can continue talking about the past if they want. I’m sure the public is dying to hear them continue to talk about the recession that has passed us by. But the New Labour message now needs to be about the future and continuing the growth story.
Is moving out of recession enough to stop the Tories gaining power? Maybe not. But I feel our chances have improved significantly this morning.
In terms of “engineering accuracy”, the economy stopped declining 6 to 8 months ago, and has since been bumping along the bottom. An L-shaped recession, then. Looking forward, the horizontal part of the L may well continue for several more quarters. While not great, that ought to mean that the growth in unemployment should be halted (though not reversed), and makes it less likely that interest rates will eb increased any time soon (I declare a personal interest on that score). The difficulty with this scenario is for the treasury - not receiving the growing tax take anticipated, therefore other means required to cut down borrowing - more cuts or more tax rises, in other words.
242 Richie no one is crowing; just briefly noting in passing that this debacle makes Brown that fraction more risible than he was before. About .1% more risible.
274
its 200bn not 150bn isnt it, they are just pending the last 25bn now IIRC?
What price Gordo gets delayed in Ireland and doesnt make it back in time for PMQ’s?
If he does appear,Cameron will be have to be very careful “how” he duffs up Gordo..tricky
oh dear! June 3rd then.
The only part of the economy that’s growing is the plant industry!
“Or does David Cameron now look daft for saying we’re in the clear ”
Eh?
283 - Cameron would be advised not to “duff” Gordo up, rather seem genuinely concerned, like a lot of the population, about the true state of the economy.
If Gordo wants to do his saved the world routine, 0% rise and all, I would let him. I’m sure the press and public will ridicule him for it.
The odds must tighten on a March election. How can Darling deliver a budget now? His fiscal position has to be based on a growth forecast. What can he possibly say that the markets will believe? The Q4 growth was 75% less than estimated. That’s a mound of tax revenue out of the window for starters, and Darling’s position is simply untenable.
“I feel our chances have improved significantly this morning.”
Ah, you are taking the p*ss. As you were.
RR @ 242
Today is not bad news though it’s vindication of the government’s policies moving us out of recession and back on a path towards strong growth.
In other news, the US Army is being repelled at the city walls of Baghdad.
The government have spent my grandchildren’s income to get us to 0.1% growth. They would have spent my children’s, but they had already wasted that on “climate change neutral, diversity supporting, organic real nappy mitigating facilitators”
Strong growth will come no doubt, but long after Boy George has had to slash spending and has reduced our tax code from war and peace dimensions to something a little more like the famous five, short and easily understandable.
BETTING POST As my earlier post is still stuck in moderation here it is again.
If you’re betting on the turnout market then you might have a look at the latest Social Trends survey published today. It suggests that the number of people who feel they have a civic duty to vote has fallen sharply -down to 56% from 68% in 1991. Only 41% of the under 35s think the same.
This suggests to me that turnout will struggle to get to 65% and that will be the real legacy of new Labour in alienating people from the political process with all their lies and spin.
BBC News:
The UK’s had been the last major economy still in recession.
Europe’s two biggest economies - Germany and France - came out of recession last summer. Japan and the US also exited recession last year.
‘Below expectations’
“We can say that Britain has just crossed the line in coming out of recession,” said BBC chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym.
“It [the growth figure] was below analysts’ expectations. The figure could be moved down, or indeed upwards.”
271. The scrappage scheme was actually revenue neutral, the government only put in £1000 and made the manufacturers match it. The government then got most of there chunk back on the VAT if you spent over £7000. It was actually one of the better schemes. There was actually remarkably little stimulous spending, despite the massive amounts of debt that piled up.
The problem was that Labour’s client state was unaffordable in the boom years and needed them to run a deficit to fund it. When tax reciepts crashed in the bust Labour’s clients were still there and chewing threw a massive amount cash. All this debt hasn’t been for stimulous, it has simply been to keep Labour’s clients in clover.
0.1%. THIS IS A PITIFUL NUMBER FOR LABOUR TO BRAG ABOUT.
ARE WE REALLY OUT OF RECESSION, OR ARE WE DUE TO ENTER THE SECOND HALF OF THE W?
Yesterday I posted a few lines about suspect and dodgy statistics, the above number may be such a one, as Gordo simply had to pull something out of the hat. Even if this is a true number, (unadjusted), it is a joke compared to Apple inc. results (last night) which posted a near 50% profit for the last quarter on $15 billions of business.
I know that a company is not the USA which is in deep doodoo at the moment, being let by a similar mountebank as we have here.
The political question is whether such fragile growth and possible bad Q1 2010 figures will support the Gordon Brown “Don’t let the Tories damage the recovery” message or bolster Osborne’s “recovery being damaged by debt and wrong choices” one?
GDP based on 2005 being 100 has risen from 100.6 to 100.7, still below where we were in June last year and 6.4% down on the peak in Q1 2008. So country at end of Labour’s third term is about where it was at beginning but public debt has increased from 34% to forecast 57% (excluding financial interventions) over same period.
At the same time as the pathetic growth, in the “real world”…
The cost of food and petrol has shown a shock rise, despite supermarket promises of January price cuts.
Customers have been hit with big increases on food essentials compared to January last year, according to the Daily Mail Cost of Living Index.
At the same time, the price of unleaded petrol is close to 30 per cent higher than a year ago amid evidence that some supermarkets have abandoned cost-cutting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246057/Soaring-cost-food-Shops-accused-using-VAT-increase-disguise-rises.html#ixzz0diFTJH61
280. Your chances of winning the election went, this morning, from negligible to even more negligible. That is all.
Labour’s “reputation”, however, will have been dealt a further and severe blow. I see this week’s Economist accuses Brown of “presiding over an economic disaster”.
But of course there has been no bust, just a moderate recession. You abolished boom and bust.
If the Tories are in any way competent when they return to power, then the voters won’t risk giving you c*nts another go at the economic steering wheel for a generation.
I can just imagine Paul Whitehouse doing an Aviva-esque PPB for Labour at the GE
£178 billion to achieve 0.01% growth baaaaaaaaaargain
176. tim, you say it is certainly no time to cut spending and I understand the Labour argument that the massive borrowing is needed to get the country growing again but it doesnt really seem to be working very effectively and is storing up massive debt repayments for the future which will help to choke of public spending in other areas.
This is a genuine question for those on the left, given that pump-rpiming the economy through debt isn’t working as well as you would like, when do we start focusing on the deficit? How much longer can we continue with this experiment before we recognise that the real crisis is that we are wrecking the future to pay for the present?
Gordon Brown. The only man who could f*ck up coming out of recession.
He will go into the election with the Q4 numbers revised downwards to a seventh quarter of negative growth, then just a few days before voting the ONS will announce the eighth quarter of negative growth.
Expect another fifty Labour MP’s to announce they aren’t standing again in the near future…I mean, what is the point? Labour will be tainted for generations.
QE was extended to 200 billion before xmas. At the last meeting the MPC voted not to extend, but to complete the 200 billion and see how it goes.
Since then inflation has rose sharply, the collapse in output has stopped, although we are going nowhere at the moment. Money supply isn’t being stimulated, but continues to shrink on the M4 measure.
All three of the above are the excuses for QE. Deflation has passed, if it was ever there. Output is no longer collapsing. QE is not stimulating monetary growth.
7 Richie Rich at the start of this thread- Priceless. He makes Tim look like a dangerous intellectual
279 - Theres a point there, do we want to roll the dice on Armagideonomics?
278 sums it up completely though.
296 - And like so much Labour does, it was really a con trick.
Research showed that manufacturers simply bumped up the ticket prices, then gave you the “discount”. In some cases the public were paying significantly more than before the scheme was introduced (even with the discount).
And lots of people bought on finance…..head / desk / thud….
News of the Q4 figures has reached Australia. Such is their gratitude to the Mother country for saving them and the rest of the world that the resulting fireworks interrupted the tennis.
305 - Oh and also the finance deals were more expensive too.
301 - QE is just another experiment to see if the Govt can spend its way out of recession. Previous experiments failed because the increase in interest rates from excessive Govt debt overcame the stimulus from spending. This time they will print money to force down interest rates and then spend.
its obvious it will fail as people are not dumb animals and will change their behaviour to compensate. It will just cause a bigger mess and mean the low growth lasts much much longer. Economists are the biggest liars on the planet.
299 - You don’t need to ask me, you can follow the Ken Clarke model of the 90s recession and start fiscal tightening roughly two years after the recession has ended and growth has established.
297. Chart of UK GDP in US$ since 1960 til now.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/01/how-low-can-we-go.html
So the bunker spin is that even though we are drowning in debt, a budget deficit twice as high as when we went busto before, had the printing presses running night and day creating funny money, pi$$ed money up the wall like it is going out of fashion, and still the economy unable to show any real growth (6 months after Darling said we would be out of recession), don’t let the Tories ruin it! HO HO HO
299
Again I’ll try not to be partisan. If we consider the cases of four countries: US, UK, Ireland and Iceland.
Each has suffered big falls in output, collapse in tax receipts, ballooning deficits and were exposed to the finance sector.
Each has approached these problems in subtly different ways and economists will look back on this period to learn lessons on how to deal with recessions.
The early signs are that Brownian economics don’t work, but it’s probably too early to make an accurate judgement.
After an interruption to fireworks, both men trade breaks of serve. Murray to serve at 3-4…
7 (richie rich) - “Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240. I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.”
From the Telegraph - “However the 0.1pc expansion was less than the 0.4pc economists had expected and casts doubt over the strength of a possible recovery this year. ”
Oh dear…
296. “Even if this is a true number, (unadjusted), it is a joke compared to Apple inc. results (last night) which posted a near 50% profit for the last quarter on $15 billions of business.”
Apple has been led by Steve Jobs for a decade, he is one of the smartest, most charismatic, and visionary leaders the business world has ever seen. We have Gordon Brown, he’s more like Steve Ballmer.
315 - Forgot to add from the same article..
“The pound fell by more than a cent against the dollar after the release of the figures. “
312 (cont) - The Tories could put up Nick Lesson as shadow chancellor and probably still think he couldn’t do any worse job than the current lot!
310 tim - That is a nonsensical comparison. In the 90s, we didn’t have public spending totally out of control.
One curious feature of Labour’s position is that, despite all the rhetoric, the ‘fiscal stimulus’ which Brown goes on about has, necessarily, been quite limited. There just hasn’t been room to do much, because we already had a burgeoning deficit even in the boom times.
There’s no getting away from the fact that Labour have made a total hash of the economy in general, and public spending in particular.
This is seriously depressing news.
On ‘Richie Rich’, if he’s a real person who invested on a supposed rise in Sterling it highlights to any bettor the danger of following your personal prejudices or ‘heart’ when making betting calls.
It’s why I never bet against Manchester United, for Leeds United or the England football team.
A cautionary tale.
A thought about May 6th. If the 2010 Q1 figure is announced a week before polling day there is the possibility that a significant number of voters will already have voted by post as ballot papers will land with people probably on Sat 24th May
301 - Cutting spending while the economy is still fragile would send countless businesses to the wall and put hundreds of thousands, if not millions, more people out of work.
The fact that house repossessions are much lower than they were in the early 90s, the fact that more people have kept their jobs than they did in the early 1980s will atually be of significant benefit to the economy in the longer term, and therefore for this country’s future.
Some of us who are longer in the tooth, remember the Balance of Payments figures, everymonth they were poured over, pontificated over, dismantled reasembled, dismantled etc. Who mentions them now?
As we near the election, unemployment will become the critical factor, now thats a statistic that will affect you. If unemployment remains at or near the presnt figure, then those in employment will start to believe they’ve come through unscathed.
They will have to then to ask themselves whose most likely to keep them in their jobs.
The party that can convince them they are, may have an edge.
306. “Research showed that manufacturers simply bumped up the ticket prices, then gave you the “discount”. In some cases the public were paying significantly more than before the scheme was introduced (even with the discount).”
IIRC Ford alone had something like four prices rises during the period.
Seems like Gordo other little wheeze is blowing up in his face,
Top FCO lawyer ruled Iraq war illegal…..
@316: Apple’s figures aren’t quite as astonishingly good as they first seem, mind. They’ve changed their accounting practices, and actually (more or less) met analyst expectations , rather than beat them in astonishing fashion.
That said, they still exceeded their own forecasts, and I wouldn’t mind making their kind of profits!
312 - My view,whether you think it is spin or not is that we should follow a similar route out to that which Clarke took, perhaps if unemployment, as seems possible, rises less than it did in the nineties we may be able to tighten slightly earlier than Clarke did.
But under no circumstances do we roll the dice on huge cuts this year, as has often been attributed to Osborne.
Crikey - AWFUL - 0.1% in exchange for how much?
I notice that the BBC are trying to cheer themselves up after their initial The ONS Stole Christmas reaction.
I wonder if Gordon will come back for PMQs ?
How can Labour have effed the economy so crushingly that we’re just beginning to flat line months after the rest of the world started to recover well?
Depressing, just so depressing.
If only we could selectivley target lefties for job cuts, then limit benefits to 6 months. Just think how much better off the country would be after 12 months.
310. But tim, in 1993 (at the end of the last recession) UK public debt was 24.5 % of GDP, it then moved up to a maximum of 43.7 % of GDP by 1997 as the Tories managed the effects of the recession.
In 2008 (at the start of this recession) debt was 43.4 % of GDP, almost exactly what it was at the end of the debt expansion to cope with the last recession. In 2010 it is estimated to be 71.9 % of GDP and will only get higher.
Surely we are not in the position we were under Clarke and Lamont, where debt was very low to start with, to allow a loose fiscal position for another two years? Is there not a danger that not tightening sooner will mean that debt simply gets completely out of control?
I am not speaking as an expert on economics, merely a concerned (Tory) citizen and I want to really understand the Labour position. The figures btw, come from http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk
324. Gordon is just thinking of his legacy - to get Blair in the dock in the Hague.
321- The reason repossession rates are so low is because the Govt has transferred a huge sum of money to householders through QE. It effectively pushed interest rates to zero when money supply should be contracting thus forcing up interest rates. It is a big bailout of the house owners paid for by savers.
In the long run savers will keep cash offshore or in assets and will damage the long term growth of the economy. It also means house buyers will pay even higher prices in the next boom safe in the knowledge they will be bailed out by printing money……
327 - Has the rest of the world really started to recover well?
325. That’s true, but even so the turn around at Apple over the last decade is truly extraordinary. If only government could attract such talented people.
@326: If we were in the same position as we were in the 90s recession, then I’d agree with you; but, unfortunately, we are not. We’ve seen a decade-long contraction in manufacturing output (for the first time in recorded history), debt levels are far higher (both public and private), and the state is far larger as a proportion of the whole economy. The same medicine won’t work for a different disease.
In all likelihood, the figure will be revised upwards slightly, but it’s still very poor. Growth has been lower than predicted at almost every stage of this recession.
7: Richie Rich @ 04:03
“I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.”
It is possible that your business friends and associates have better information than anyone else who I have heard or read commenting this morning. So which sectors of the economy do you think are going to drive this strong recovery?
326 tim - I don’t think Osborne is talking about ‘huge cuts’ this year; rather, he is realistically recognising that (as Ken Clarke pointed out), if you don’t start now you won’t make any progress by around 2011/2012.
In any case, for a given level of borrowing, we could have stimulated the economy by increasing spending or by cutting taxes (as Darling did to a limited extent with the VAT cut). Since our problem is overwhelmingly the gargantuan waste of Brown’s undisciplined public spending splurge, we should start by addressing the most egregious examples of waste, which remain quite staggering in their incompetence and disregard for value for money.
The idea that spending is good irrespective of what the money is spent on is totally laughable. Every penny has to come from taxation, either now or (with added interest) in the future.
326
But tim, if you’re going to copy Ken Clarke, you have to copy all of it. That means fixing the roof when the sun was shining.
One of the things the left has to decide, is how to approach public finances in the good times. Running a 3% deficit when the economy is in growth phase is really quite stupid. In fact, after the Bush Presidency, parts of the right need to realise this as well.
329 - Our structural debt is not out of line with our competitor economies and would only be increased by premature cutting which would push up unemployment adn suck out demand.
If Osborne wants to cut early it is for political not economic considerations.
@333: Oh, I completely agree with that. Jobs has totally transformed a duff computer company into an absolutely world-beating consumer electronics company. Sony execs must be spitting chips.
334 Exactly. We’ve had a decade in which growth in public spending has exceeded growth in economic output, and during which the government was borrowing money, even in good years.
Morning all
The numbers don’t matter that much to be honest. It’s the perception that matters. For those who have been directly affected by the recession, they won’t be convinced by today’s news and for those who fear the worst is yet to come, today’s news won’t have much impact.
The REALLY important number this morning is the 66% wanting a change in Government quoted by Mike from the ICM poll. As we saw in 1997, everything else is background - if people want change, irrespective of whether they think the change will make any difference - no amount of positive spinning from the incumbent administration will make a scrap of difference.
The question now is how bad is it going to be for the Conservatives in office. There’s a lot of expectation built in to that 66% and while “vote for us on Thursday and the recovery starts Monday” sounds good, I just wonder how long people really think it will take for things to improve and how much time they will give the new Government to make the improvements happen.
I suspect we may hear plenty of this in the months of come:
“The economy’s still in a mess”
“It’s all Labour’s fault”
“But you’re the Government now…”
328. “If only we could selectivley target lefties for job cuts”
You can, just shrink the size of the public sector.
331 - I thought it was the Bank of England that made these decisions.
336. HurstLlama.
Remember that Dickie boy claims to live in Buenos Aires.
318. That’s right Richard - the structural budget deficit peaked at around 7% of GDP in 1993 which is a good 4% points of GDP lower than the current level.
At the time, there were a few murmurings about whether enough gilts could be sold to finance the deficit but nothing like today’s concerns.
Once again it’s the same old story. In the last recession, the budget started from a position of surplus which gave the government a lot of breathing space to allow the deficit to grow and ameliorate the recession.
This time around, the budget started from a position of significant deficit so that the recession has taken us to the brink of serious fiscal problems, and the breathing space Clarke had just doesn’t exist.
Brown’s reckless spending from 2001-2008 has made the recession worse than it needed to be.
337 - I think the point is Richard, that nobody really knows what Osborne is proposing.
To those on teh left who talk about the need to keep spending, I have a metaphorical example:
At 9.30 AM yesterday I haa dilemma, I had had received my Xmas bonus, but it was much lower than expected. As a result I had two options. I could invest the money in something real like a savings account and hope over time to make up the difference, or perhaps pay off some debts to reduce my monthly outgoings. Or I could go on the lash to cheer myself up.
I chose the latter and today I have a hangover but no bonus at all. I was drinking Lemberger so only the Germans are happier too, with no benefit to anyone in the UK.
All spending is not wise.
342 - I could not agree more.
342 - But it will gain little traction for a while when anything bad in the country was still being blamed on the Tories over a decade into Labour’s administration.
‘No more boom and bust’ will take a good few years to forget.
I’m hopeful that Cameron will get his two terms. Not OVERLY confident but fairly.
I do hope that future administrations of all colours remember to put money aside in boom time instead of chucking it in bust buckets.
And another thing…
A fiscal hawk such as myself wants the deficit addressed RIGHT NOW. I am however, persuaded by those who point to the very real difficulties in making very quick public spending cuts.
So, to get things going in the right direction, any responsible government should make cuts in discretionary spending. One example of this is advertising. Why is the government spending record amounts on advertising when we have record deficits?
“Why is the government spending record amounts on advertising when we have record deficits?”
I think we all know the answer to that one! Might have something to do with a little event that is probably going to occur on 6th May.
348 - Your spending is not like government spending though is it? So it is a ridiculous metaphor. If governments do not spend during a recession then millions of people lose their jobs and hundreds of thousands of families lose their homes. When you are not spending your bonus, someone else needs to be spending money in order for the economy to keep functioning.
Happy days are here again! While you gloom-mongers and nay-sayers have been mongering gloom and saying nay, I have been out quaffing gallons of champagne and running up eye-watering credit card debts with all the GOOD people of this GREAT Britain!
Of course, it’s possible that the figures will be revised down in a few months and that we aren’t, in fact, out of recession. For that reason, I have made sure it’s cheap champagne and run up the credit card bills at Lidl and Poundland only.
Osborne getting flustered under questioning by Victoria Derbyshire, not a good sign.
339. But racking up more debts now surely only limits our freedom of maneuverer once we get on the path of recovery? In 2011 we will already be paying more in debt interest than we spend on education and transport combined. I think everyone agrees that there is a great deal of pain to come in reducing the UK’s structural deficit and I can see there are upsides and downsides to acting either now or waiting but it seems to me that the downsides in waiting are greater.
You are keen to ascribe Osborne’s position as political but generally calling for pain now isn’t usually regarded as politically astute is it?
345 – You are correct, one of Richie Rich’s manifestations was Chiroso Schlong, an Argentinean based class warrior. Of course that was before he was slapped down by OGH for using multiple aliases in the course of one thread.
A troll basically passing himself off now as a ‘city dealer’ as seen from his rather silly posts today.
The interesting point from the ONS bods was that past records show that the GDP revisions are equally likely to be down as up.
I had the impression they were usually upward.
Live and learn.
357 He brightens up the place though….
Very odd intv on with Derbyshire and Ozzie just now - she was terribly aggressive and Ozzie seemed baffled/bit annoyed at her attitude.
He summed up her tone as ‘treating the Opposition as the Government, and the Goverment as the Opposition’.
360, maybe she was upset about growth being as limp as an impotent jellyfish.
To think that some people still want to vote labour.
Here, we have a Great Leader that again disappears from immediate view - doing his great MacCavity act - this time in N. Ireland, instead of being able to answer directly to the public, his thoughts on our great recovery from recession.
I wonder if it had been shown that GDP grew by 0.4+% this morning, if Gordo would be “stuck” in NI?
Now I really must get on reading his excellent book on courage, so that I too can learn to become a brave man like our Great Leader.
347 tim - Osborne is, very sensibly, keeping his options open whilst making it clear that the deficit will be seriously addressed over the lifetime of the next parliament, mainly by getting spending under control (assuming a Conservative government, of course!)
In political terms, he doesn’t need to do any more. He has won the argument and Labour have been dragged (kicking and screaming in Brown’s case) to a position where they acknowledge he was right all along on the essentials; now they are trying to quibble about timing. Shrewdly, he’s not giving them much in the way of specific targets to take aim at.
Obviously, in the unlikely event that Darling comes clean in the budget, the pressure on Osborne to be more specific might increase. However, in that scenario I think the narrative would be more likely to centre on something like ‘Darling slashes education!’ or whatever ends up being the focus of the cuts, rather than on Osborne’s response.
But the more likely scenario is a Labour fudge with contradictory messages and Brown still in denial. In that scenario, Osborne will be under no pressure to be more specific than Darling will have been.
I think the point is, lefties should never be handed the keys to the British economy.
It’s like giving a powerful Porsche to a spoilt and slightly stupid 18 old boy. At first, the undeserving lout tootles down the avenue, all sensible and careful - when he thinks his proud parents are still watching.
But as soon as he is out of sight, he turns on the music and cracks open the vodka and roars down the motorway whooping and jiggling until he totals the car killing several bystanders in the process.
Every f*cking time.
0.1% - aenemic growth. How will this play on the parties view about cutting spending
The Labour position - too early now - is actually strengthened, if growth had been higher it would have been more dificult to argue against the conservatives cut now approach.
However, talking a longer view, slow growth is bad news as it means the deficit will reduce slower. The future government debt is in a worse position now given slow growth.
A very nasty position to be in.
Savage cuts (TM Clegg) here we come in due course.
361 She couldn’t have been more partisan - Ozzie needs to be more assertive sooner, he let her go on and on before finally asking her where she was going…
Still, all good experience for the way things will be during the election proper.
360 - This is the women who personally blamed Chris Grayling for all the problems with gangs / anti-social behaviour. Other than the Tories haven’t been in power for 13 years, she didn’t seem to realise that Grayling wasn’t even a politician then! Even after he corrected it didn’t stop her trying, it just turned into a “well your lot are to blame”…BBC impartiality, all due to the unique way it is funded!
345: LondonStatto @ 10:50
“Remember that Dickie boy claims to live in Buenos Aires.”
Does he really? I missed that one. Still he seems jolly well informed about the goings on in the city and what the key players there think of our politicans. He must be a great networker.
I suppose I shouldn’t feed the troll but sometimes I can’t resist. Same with the Tims.
360 will she be as aggressive with Darling? absolutely no detail on how Government will meet its legal requirement to halve the deficit.
Hmm. I may have a listen to the interrogation on the iPlayer later.
Murray takes the second set 7-2 in the tie-break!
Even the Daily Mirror can’t spin this:
“The UK barely crawled out of recession in the final three months of 2009, official figures showed today.
The marginal 0.1% growth between October and December ended a record six straight quarters of decline but fell far short of the 0.4% advance expected.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figure is only a first estimate and may be revised higher but the result was greeted with disappointment by experts.”
http://tinyurl.com/ylfffyt
I think the 0.1% fugure should lead a rational Brown/Labour party to call an election before the next quarter’s figures are due out, for the simple reason that a double dip recession is now looking almost inevitable - the end of the VAT reduction/car scrappage schemes and the post-Xmas spending hangover surely will hit retailing and manufacturing this quarter.
Unfortunately I find a huge amount to agree with in Melanie’s article.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/5732216/this-sceptred-isle.thtml
370-I think she will. Accusing the BBC of bias has no credibility nowadays.
276.
“And this is 0.1% with £150bn of QE pumped into the economy?”
Yes, can you imagine how much worse it would have been if the OFFICIAL Tories had been in power with their ‘do nothing’ approach? We might be getting aid from Haiti.
369. HurstLlama.
He’s been a classic astroturfer ever since his first post. He’s morphed several times too.
368 Oh I missed that gem - wasn’t he working at the BBC then ?
370 I can’t understand why the ‘we have a deficit reduction plan’ seems to be like magic beans when it comes to journalists. They just don’t ask anything about it.
I have no idea how Darling/Gordon are getting away with.
377. Oh dear, what a bitter and twisted being you are.
360. You should be kind - she’s doubtless upset that the planned party has been cancelled.
“The U.K. currency sank against the dollar to hit the day’s low of $1.6123 after the Office for National Statistics said that gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in the three months to the end of December, compared with the previous quarter. Economists had expected a rise of 0.4%.
“This is another desperately disappointing GDP release,” said Howard Archer, chief European and U.K. economist at Global Insight. “While the U.K. officially exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, it could only crawl out,” he said.
The currency move wipe out much of the rally seen in sterling Monday, which gathered momentum as traders positioned themselves for a more robust figure.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703906204575026591053267112.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
How much did Richie Rich put into sterling, as he confidently awaited the GDP stats? Maybe he could give us precise figures on what he lost, as he is now apparently a Forex dealer.
Any ideas on how the snow outages earlier this month and reduced gas supplies to the manufacturing sector will effect next quarters figures? What with the VAT increases and post christmas lull will we realistically be looking at a slight fallback?
377, things would be much better because, as a reduction in spending was in the 2005 manifesto, both the deficit and the debt levels would’ve been far better in the period immediately before the financial crisis.
Two (other!) stories in the news - Northern Ireland politics and the tennis.
The connection???
Martin(a) McHingis
(I’ll get my coat!)
Re: 350 - David, you’re right of course in the short-term but I’m far less convinced we aren’t moving into a more 1970s-style period of alternating Governments.
The economy is going to take a very long time to get better and I frankly doubt whether either the electorate or the Government have the will to get through the pain.
The Heath Government buckled in the face of industrial discontent and voter resistance to its policies aimed at restoring the damage done by the Wilson Government. The Thatcher Government was more resolute but faced huge public discontent - the poll ratings and by-election results from 1981 up to the invasion of the Falklands tell you that.
How will Cameron react when the public turn against his policies ? As Council seats fall by the hundred and by-elections are lost in safe seats and poll ratings plummet, how resolute will he be ?
383, good points Mr. There (also, are you a new poster? If so, hello) but also is the predictable but serious impact of Christmas bolstering consumption and the months afterwards slumping by comparison.
383 The VAT rise induced shopping in Dec/QE/scrappage and the snow must have a big impact - if Q4 was that weak, I can’t see how this one will be better.
Like I said - depressing.
379 - I think he left the BBC in the early 90’s, before Derbyshire’s time. Not that she would have noticed even if he had been there in the late 90’s early 00’s, as she was too busy juggling presenting and screwing another presenter’s (Fi Glover) husband.
385. Sandy Rentool.
Very good
Speaking of the tennis, Nadal is having the physio see to his right knee, having called a injury time-out mid-game…
I see shadsy has a market up for the State of Union address. I got my fingers bably burned on this one last year, so I won’t be playing.
Haiti is probably nailed on to be mentioned but odds of 1/5 aren’t very tempting.
366. Yes, that seems about right. I can see the Labour argument being strengthened in the short-term (though whether it will fly is another matter), but I see little appetite within Labour for the grisly work that awaits the winner of the next election whoever it may be.
I just can’t see Gordon Brown being able to stomach undoing a lot of the work he has done over the past 12 years because we can no longer afford it. Perhaps if Mandelson was in charge I might have more confidence (much as I loathe him, at least he seems to get the scale of the problem) but that isn’t going to happen.
I dont think the markets will wear tim’s idea of no tightening for two years after the end of the recession. As unpleasant as the need for early cuts are, I just dont see a viable alternative. It’s not going to be nice but, to use SeanT’s surgeon metaphor again, if we dont get the surgery soon then I fear the pateint might be permanently crippled.
387 - “the predictable but serious impact of Christmas bolstering consumption and the months afterwards slumping by comparison”
You do realise that these are year-on-year comparisons rather than quarter-on-quarter ones?
“vote for us on Thursday and the recovery starts Monday” sounds good, I just wonder how long people really think it will take for things to improve and how much time they will give the new Government to make the improvements happen.
by stodge January 26th, 2010 at 10:49 am
The difficulty with that is Cameron and Osborne have stubbornly refused to make all things rosy. They have said consistently that things will be tough and a return to real growth, let alone wealth, will be a hard road.
The slogan would be more accurately, “vote for us and the hard but successful road to recovery and prosperity starts on Saturday”.
382 - He would have made a decent sum if he had started backing the pound againstthe Euro a few weeks ago.
393, oh, I feel mildly silly now. However, the fact remains that even annually there will have been more spending around Christmas and less now because:
1) if the VAT cut has any effect it’ll shift spending to the Christmas period
2) the snow will have cut consumption in January quite a bit
391, I got FDR right at 8/1 last time (tip, no bet though). Hmm.
Yes We Can, 16/1 looks possible.
390 - Patella Tendonitis playing up again?
397 (correction) Helps if I spell it right!
Patellar Tendinitis
Murray breaks for 2-0 and with Nadal struggling, it’s surely Murray’s to win or lose.
17. There seems to be very little in that agenda for 7-year-olds for any unreconstructed paedophile to disagree with.
On-topic: if we can achieve a mighty 0.1% growth with QE, a now-reversed VAT cut and continuing unsustainable borrowing, what on earth happens when all these stop, as stop they must?
383/387 - GDP is seasonally adjusted so Xmas isn’t a big factor and I doubt the snow will have had an enormous impact in that it hit both the previous quarter and this, and it isn’t clear adverse weather over a very short period in the bigger scheme has a really material impact on national stats (people defer spending, tweak production schedules etc pretty effectively).
The VAT increase should have an impact. It will be interesting to see how marked as that will give a clue as to how much scope there is for short term tax rises and spending cuts without choking recovery. All parties would be well advised to watch carefully as clearly there’s a crucial judgement to be made on the balance there.
393. Neil - the GDP figure of 0.1% is a quarter-on-quarter one.
397. Oracle. I didn’t know she was playing today.
375.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day! I agree about the first two letters but Charles Moore is only partly right. Newsnight is only partly ‘the establishment’. It does at least have the courage occasionally to take on the predigested cant which constitutes most mainstream politics. It was totally refreshing to see them refuse to take diversionary obfuscation (technical term: bull$hit) from Michael Howard, Phil Woolas et al on ‘hard’ questions’ and just keep repeating the question. Paxman did the same thing quite well the other night with the infantile Phil Hammond who was trying to have his cake and eat it - criticising the government for not introducing a policy which his own lot might introduce this year…next year… sometime…never.
The downside of the assertive confrontational approach from the (small audience) Newsnight team is that the nasty politicians soon learned that they could appear total wallies on Newsnight and still survive. Paint yourself a liar or a fool, if you have thick enough skin and no morals, you can tough out anything which would have meant instant resignation in the 1960s. This has led to further liberties being taken with the public by politicians of all hues which has reached its peak with the MPs’ expenses scandal. The shoal of contaminated sardines have swum around frantically giving each other cover and largely survived.
Hasn’t stopped the public’s general respect for politicians as a species falling to an all-time low, though.
Joel Hills in a bitter Sky interview of Chancellor, “But you promised, Darling”. Said Q4 “incredibly weak and it doesn’t bode well”.
383: HelloThere @ 11:16
I couldn’t give figures but I cannot see a way in which retailing (and all the supply chain and logistics jobs that go with it) is going to be busier this quarter than it was last.
What that means in terms of economic growth I am not so sure. Isn’t most of the stuff that gets sold in shops is imported? So as long a the shops stay in business maybe it won’t hurt too much.
However, I heard the top chap from the CBI on the wireless this morning and he said he hoped to see growth being driven by manufacturing and consumer spending. He didn’t sound too confident mind and I can’t see how either sector is going to grow significantly in the short term.
393
“You do realise that these are year-on-year comparisons rather than quarter-on-quarter ones?”
Er no they are not Neil - at least the 0.1% headline figure is not. It is specifically for the last 3 months of 2009 as compared to the previous 3 months. The year on year figure shrank by 4.8%. The biggest yearly fall since 1949.
393 Neil - the 0.1% growth is quarter on quarter comparison, it reverses half of the previous quarters fall.
Quite reasonable to expect Q1 growth to be negative in comparison to Q4 as a number of stimulus actions (QE, car scrappage, VAT reduction) have or are about to end and post Christmas fall in consumption could have detrimental effect on services and other consumer driven growth.
Against that though there are seasonal factors that could drive up growth such as increased power consumption as result of cold weather, Government spending as Departments & Councils try to spend what’s left in this years budget and of course banking bonus season (though smaller its still there).
From the Economist Jan 21st 2010(hattip SeanT)
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15331185
“The bungee-jump in prices gives electors another reason to vent their anger on Gordon Brown for the economic disaster over which he has presided.”
Ouch. At last the Economist is showing signs of returning to a belief in Capitalism. I may take out a new subscription after years of letting it lapse. Any chance of the FT moving away from New Labour’s statism?
396
Don’t feel silly Morris, you were right and it was Neil who was incorrect.
394 - It will all depend on the specific policies the Tories put in place. That sounds obvious, but it is an important point. Saying that things are going to be tough is not the same as saying your kid will be taught in a bigger class, your local NHS drop-in centre will be closed, you will now have to pay to get into museums, you will not qualify for a tax rebate because you aren’t married, and so on. I am not sating that things will happen, but if they do, they are choics that the Tories have made over an above other choices they could have made.
As someone up-thread points out, 66% of electors feel it is time for a change. What that does not equate to is an endorsement of Tory policies. So the way they manage their first two years in power will be very important. If they do go for divisive tax cuts and if they do cut services that a lot of people use, then no amount of blaming Labour will help them - especially if growth continues to be anaemic and unemployment stays high.
409, ah ha! *dances a jig*
I should have trusted in my own infallability
After all, how could a man with my fashion sense be wrong?
Ladbrokes: I am uncertain about the new layout. However, I very much like the fact that the minimum bet has been reduced to 10p.
Patella Tedonitis was a great player until a chaotic lifestyle and drugs took their toll.
379.
“I have no idea how Darling/Gordon are getting away with.”
Because though it’s c*ap, it sounds an awful lot better than the zilch remedy that was put forward from the ‘official opposition (sic)’.
I see the British tennis player has won.
Has McCavity been out to face the music yet? Part of me feels sorry for Labour having such a person as their leader, then I remember that the PLP annointed him unopposed.
And Murray wins, Nadal drops out with injury.
I wish Brown would do a Nadal and quit..
Nadal retires.
Looks as though Nadal has conceded.
412
Actually SO for once I would agree with you. I have no great feeling of hope for Cameron - partly because the depth of the disaster he is being left by Brown is so great that he will be hard put to deal with it in a decade. But partly also because I don’t feel he is any different from the rest of the politicians who have blighted our country since the departure of Maggie.
But the one great thing that can be said for Cameron is that he is not Brown, not Labour and not ideologically inclined to follow policies which have helped to so deeply damage our country.
Anyone seen Darling about?
re. scrappage scheme, had to replace old car after gear box trouble. option 12 month old car v new car. new one limited choice of model/colour - almost appeared to be top spec models only - could have been 3k or more to pay even with subsidy. new car price up c. 5% on jan 1st.
we opted for newish second hand car, once the advertised on line price fell c. 9% a day or so after trip to garage, sale included some sort of ‘asset protection scheme’ thrown in, which they were trying to flog for another 300 when we walked away earlier that week.
Q1 2010 does not include the Easter holiday weekend. I don’t know if that makes a difference to GDP figures compared to years with an early Easter, or is it “seasonally adjusted” out of the equation?
416.
“I see the British tennis player has won”
Victory for dour Scot. Beware the ides of March!
7. An interactive photograph of Richie Rich’s life savings following everyone else’s down the drain:
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
421 “But the one great thing that can be said for Cameron is that he is not Brown, not Labour and not ideologically inclined to follow policies which have helped to so deeply damage our country.”
Yup. Personally, I wish the Tories would make more references to family budgets and the nation’s credit card library.
It makes it so obvious what the problem is rather than talk of debt/deficit which I had no idea how to differentiate between for weeks - particularly when Gordon answers questions about one with data on the other.
425. I guess in Spain they will be saying that the guy from Mallorca lost!
424. Sandy - they do try to seasonally adjust it, but moveable feasts like Easter do cause problems so there is still scope for data noise.
Just heard mandelbum on sky hes seriously worried about a double dip so with the bad figures today and 2010 Q1 looking bad will gordo go early to avoid the april GDP figures ?
408-The year on year figure shrank by 4.8%. The biggest yearly fall since 1949.
Who was in power then? The wicked Tories?
410-The Economist has even begun (gently) to question the whole climate industry too. Unlike the BBC they did not ignore Climate gate just as their warmist writers were starting to be given a free rein…
414.
“Patella Tedonitis was a great player”
A Doctor writes: Actually ‘Patellar Tendonitis’, otherwise known as ‘jumpers’ knee’. A condition which Monica Lewinski only aspired to (on the rare occasion her airways were unclogged).
421 - Brown going will be good for everyone, whatever their political convictions.
Re; 394 - Witan, you’ve missed the point, I think. Of course Cameron and Osborne are going to say that things will be tough - had they said anything else, they would have been rightly pilloried as being unrealistic.
The problem is that from the 5-star lounge of Opposition, Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Cable can talk tough to their heart’s content without being accountable. In the trenches of Government, it’s very different when there is micro-analysis of everything said, done, not said and not done.
Cameron is an excellent politicial performer - he looks and sounds affable and amenable and does the 1-on-1 interview or the speech to the favourable audience well as did Blair.
Blair lost it when he became unpopular and faced hostility and retreated into Downing Street. I don’t know how Cameron will deal with hostile audiences and unpopularity but he will have to and possibly before too long.
Thatcher, I now realise, actually revelled in and drew strength from being unpopular and found it easier than being popular. I’m not convinced Cameron is cut from the same cloth while I actually think William Hague might be. HIS problem was that he couldn’t get to grips with doing things that would make him popular.
416 Indeed! Good old Andy, resident of London suburbia, almost an Englishman now…
Interesting on rankings - Nadal drops 2000 Grand Slam winner points in exchange for 360 from QF and many of his ranking points were from Jan-Apr last year, injury problems could see him drop down before French/Wimbledon.
Murray though was only round 16 last time so is already up in points as compared to this time last year.
Federer looks like keeping No 1 for some time now.
431.
“Who was in power then? The wicked Tories?”
Whereas today it is the ‘not quite so wicked as the official’ Tories
412: Southam Observer @ 11:31
Paying to get into museums, NHS drop in centres closed (whatever they are), bigger class sizes and fewer tax breaks, I fear you haven’t grasped the scale of what is come.
Government and other services contributions to GDP have declined by 0.7 year on year, compared with an overall decline of 3.2. Not sure the BoE will dare to stop QE and risk a gilt market sell off, and if so we may get a cherry on top of Brown’s custard pie to the nation in the form of some nasty inflation.
So, it seems that the expected statement from Sir Michael Wood has come…his advice was that the war was illegal.
386. We are certainly in a period of relative but rapid national decline, which was the situation in the 70s.
Well done Labour, another achievement.
When a democratic country is in steep decline, like ours, perversely it becomes harder and harder to reverse the decline, as the measures needed get more and more unpalatable. The voters keep chucking out governments and trying new ones, in desperation, making things worse.
I can only hope that the ultimate good sense of the British people will prevail, and they will give Cameron two or three terms at least. Cause that is what it will take.
392 stjohn - Very little value there IMO. Iraq looks the best bet to me, maybe China at 2-1.
‘Climate change’ looks risky:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/25/barack-obama-usa
My day just gets better. Nadal retirement means my outstanding bet on Murray gets voided.
@435: Nadal drops to 3 now, and 4 if Murray wins his next match. Strong chance Del Potro overtakes him also in march/april also.
437 - These were but examples. But they will affect a lot of people and they will be choices that the Tories make (if they do make them) and will be held accountable for. There are are always alternatives after all.
439. Has the sky fallen in, yet?
Hmm, this ‘good news’ is all very depressing no matter which way you look at it… Especially for Labour!
Do we see any historical patterns to indicate a slide back in Q1?
439.
“Sir Michael Wood ’s…… advice was that the war was illegal.”
Ursine sillvae defecrtorium discovery! But what will happen as a result?
UK economy emerges from recession
“The UK economy has come out of recession, after figures showed it had grown by a weaker-than-expected 0.1% in the last three months of 2009.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8479639.stm
half way down, “Even with some revision… we are still talking about an extremely lacklustre recovery.”
perhaps a moving average might help analyse the trend, but unlike lucozade, the recent icy weather and infrastrucure shut down won’t aid recovery. car scrappage sceme might boost car sales but how many of the purchased subsidised vehicles were made outside the uk? otherwise it is a scheme to boost the gdp (exports) of germant, japan and south korea.
440.
” they will give Cameron two or three terms at least. ”
Will this be in an existing prison or one of those ‘big spender’ Khammereon promises to build?
McCavity, McCavity where are you?
“I’m in Irelandshire keeping well out of the way and leaving Alistair to give the great news to the faithfull. He is Chancellor you know.”
440 - A serious quesiton for you - what would you like to see Cameron do?
Some more facts and figures,
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100003306/bad-good-news-on-the-economy/
@447: B*gger all, I should imagine. Sadly.
440: SeanT @ 11:47
“When a democratic country is in steep decline, like ours, perversely it becomes harder and harder to reverse the decline, as the measures needed get more and more unpalatable. The voters keep chucking out governments and trying new ones, in desperation, making things worse.”
So maybe its time to re-learn the lessons that our predecessors understood and bin democracy.
The universal franchise has led to the “tyranny of the majority” that John Stuart Mill cautioned against. The EU seems to be the best option into today’s world but personally I think Dante had it right when he said,
“It is only when a monarch is reigning that the human race exists for its own sake, and not for the sake of something else. For it is only then that perverted forms of government are made straight, to wit, democracies, oligarchies and tyrannies, which force the human race into slavery…”
444. As you say SO, there are always alternatives but none of those alternatives look very attractive. I hope that a Tory government will make sensible choices about what to cut, choices that protect the most vulnerable in society. I accept that this hasn’t always been the case in the past, but I hope that those at the top of the Party have learnt the lessons of the 1980s.
449. wage slave, no offence, I know you are of senior years, but… why do you stress yourself making these not-entirely-amusing posts about nothing? Surely at your time of life you must have something better to do.
You could be drooling. Or mumbling at the nurse. Or putting salt in your tea and apple crumble on your head.
Go and enjoy the pleasures of your senescence. Don’t waste them on us.
Morning all,
Well so we see the end of the recession (typical political logic that it takes two quarters to start a recession and only one to end it). The economy has crawled into positive territory like an exhauasted marathon runner crossing the finishing line. Whilst its good news perhaps (we have no idea fully what machinations were entailed in producing this outcome) it really is a damp squib.
Of course its all MOE stuff. So we conveniently have both the recession ending and unemployment falling (but with lots of bad news in the detail) in the same month but in each case by so little it hardly counts. It’s hardly a platform for Brown and Labour to launch a comeback (more a postscript than a headline).
Perhaps Brown is happy in a way to be in Belfast this morning?
449 No more prison jokes please. Labour MPs are known to read this blog, and I cannot believe you could be so insensitive to the feelings of Elliot and David at this very difficult time.
“Perhaps Brown is happy in a way to be in Belfast this morning?”
Surely not!
Gordo spotted leaving #10 yesterday, running late for the plane,
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/11/09/article-1226236-0721DAAC000005DC-445_468×626.jpg
455-I hope that a Tory government will make sensible choices about what to cut, choices that protect the most vulnerable in society
So tax hikes for “the rich” then. Rich of course being everyone richer than oneself.
440. Sean - that was certainly what happened in the 1950s - 1970s.
Imagine what might have been achieved if things like a floating currency, abolition of exchange control, removal of penal taxation and trade union reform had come in during the 1950s.
Tomorrow’s PMQs should be an interesting one. How will the two leaders play it. It is a tricky balancing act for both of them. My sense is that Gordon will use his bludgeon and claim the Tories were wrong about everything which, given the better write ups he has got recently, will probably play quite well with the hacks but may rebound on him in the future.
A la Matthew Paris, I think Cameron has to play it deadly serious and try and probe Brown for answers rather than simply say “does the PM agree with me that he is a disaster”.
A test for both leaders awaits…
451. What would I LIKE him to do?
Slash taxes, privatise most of the NHS, reform schools as Gove says, halt payments to Brussels until we have a better settlement, slash all public spending across the board by 20%, except defense and policing, deport all foreign criminals, stop most non EU immigration, completely demolish the entire equalities and health-and-safety industries, sell off half the BBC, sell off anything not screwed down that is owned by the government, offer a referendum to the Scots on the choice of fiscal or real independence or back to Westminster, take job ads from the Guardian, rejig the electoral system so it is fair, stop spending money on climate change wank, and reverse all of Labour’s civil liberties infringements.
I’d keep the museums free.
Police questioned two children’s TV presenters under anti-terrorism laws - for carrying glittery hairdryers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246151/Now-anti-terror-police-stop-childrens-TV-stars–carrying-HAIRDRYERS.html#ixzz0difQKbpj
462 The GDP figures are a no-win for PMQs. NI could be the one but again the Tory talks story is tricky.
462 I have a suspicion that gordo will stay in Belfast !
Oh dear. Only Gordo could screw up in a way that makes an economic RECOVERY look awful.
I once thought that a technical end to the recession might make 3 points difference in opinion poll leads, with all the media around the event, but we would see a reversion to the long-term trends after a while.
I now think I was wrong. There will be nothing here to cause any movement in the polls, even short-term - and if there is, it is towards the Tories and Lib Dems.
Today’s events were so predictable. Gordon gets it wrong and disappears.
Why NI today? Why not in the past few days or the next few days?
No way Gordon would have missed an opportunity to spin for himself if the figures had been good.
Tells you all you need to know.
I suspect Labour hung on to Gordon expecting to play a certain tune. Now they have a cr@p musician and no music.
455: Andrew Spencer @ 11:58
Agreed. This time around they must make sure that everyone, everyone takes their fair share of the pain. Its not going to be nice or pretty (why do we subsidise Covent Garden Opera and the Ballet or indeed any of the arts?).
In addition, the level of permanent jobless is now a scandal that is brushed under the carpet by politicans on all sides. In clearing up the current mess HMG must not add to the number consigned to the dump of life-long benefits.
And what does Toilets Muckguire, the man always on the first man on the case (of lager that is), at vast cost to the Mirror, have to say about the Great Leader handling of this amazing return to growth……
TUMBLEWEED rolls past
66. Stuart, and a good read it is too, hopefully they will keep it up.
Having now had chance to read the thread I see that ‘Itchy Dick’ has outclassed himself today and elevated himself to the position of being perceived as a caricature of a bot/ troll (should we call them carbots?). Congratulations all previous candidates have disappeared before they went so far….
It must be awful for him to lose money like this but perhaps it will help him realise what his beloved leader Gordon Brown and his Government have done to thousands if not millions of British citizens…..
SO
I’ll have a go. On education they need to start from day one and gradually reform the system with the aim of removing the influence of the LEAs and the insidious entryists who dominate them. Ideally, it would be a voucher style system, but I’m realistic enough that even two terms might not be enough to get this to more than the Nursery and Primary sectors.
On the economy. Get the deficit down. Then run a balanced budget. Simplify the absolute mess Gordon has made of the tax system. Align the basic rates of Income, Capital, Corporation and Consumption taxes. Ideally, abolish employees NI and have one rate of income tax, making it more transparent.
Structurally, invest in the High Speed rail connecting all of the major urban centres from Glasgow to Manchester to Cardiff to London. If House Prices start to boom, again, overule the BoE and increase interest rates. Sharply. People need ot get the message that buying and selling homes do not increase wealth.
What else? Constitutionally, labour have made a mess. The only way forward I can see is a federal arrangement and the House of Lords needs sorting out.
Cut government spending on advertising by 80% with immediate effect and then freeze it. Pensions in the public sector need to move into contributory mode, but that can probably only be done for new employees only.
Oh and cut the pay of any public sector employee earning more than 100k by at least 10%.
Just some rambling thoughts and I now feel a bit sorry for Cameron having typed the above.
460. Not necessarily. I would rather see spending cuts rather than tax rises as I would hardly describe the UK as an under-taxed economy. I would try and ensure, however, that where the axe fell it did as little damage as possible to those who can least help themselves. That is surely a responsible attitude for a government and society to take?
463-Bloody hеll! Trying to add to that. Finding it difficult.
463 - And realistically, what do you think he will do given that much on your list is a recipe for electoral disater?
461 Perhaps the UK, that in early 50’s had 60% plus of the worlds automobile export market, a near monopoly on the motorcycle industry, major aerospace industry and a healthy electronics manufacturing sector, might have grown into the country many 1950’s science fiction writers thought it would be.
BMW and Audi/NSU would have remained niche players (compare how BMW has moved from 3 wheelers to what happened to Reliant)as people bought Rileys and MGs, we would be flying Vickers widebody jets, it would be Bush rather than Sony etc…
Perfectly clear what the Cabinet were doing yesterday. Having a weep whilst Gordon booked his ticket.
455 and 469 - When I read things from Tories such as you I feel vaguely hopeful. Then the rest start and it all looks very bleak.
Well I really don’t want to ’say I told you so’ but ……
The Q4 figures are a catastrophe for this country but I refer back to my numerous posts on this subject where I stated and I quote
” by hook or by crook somehow the Q4 figures will be placed into the positive as anything less will be armageddon for Labour. When it happens it will be massaged and be 0.1% as anything else will be ludicrous”
So what do we now see? the figures so massaged to YEP! 0.1%
Labour actually do think we are stupid. I just can’t to get these deceiving people out on their collective ears.
GE on the 25th March and Labour will be sub 200. (at 0.1% They cannot risk anything else now IMHO)
“Britain’s economy finally clawed its way out of its deepest recession since the 1930s in the fourth quarter of 2008, but it only managed to expand by a much weaker-than-expected 0.1%.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/26/uk-recession-over?CMP=AFCYAH
What are the odds on gordo bottling PMQs tomorrow ?
474-Go for a flat tax with a tax free element, so in effect two rates. 0 and x%. Easy to administer, does not allow Labour politicos to claim NI is not income tax, and gets rid of all the tax credit nonsense.
And yes, the “rich” will still pay more than the “poor”.
Interesting angle from Neil on DP - if you take London/SE out - we’re still in recession - Zippy didn’t like that observation.
No wonder Labour voters are hurting a lot.
If the Lib Dems suffer from this scandal in Camden who would gain at constituency level?
http://tinyurl.com/ybwf7vx
camden new journal “LIBERAL DEMOCRATS SUSPEND MAYOR OVER BENEFITS INVESTIGATION THE Mayor of Camden, Councillor Omar Faruque Ansari, has been suspended from the Liberal Democrat group tonight (Monday) after he was arrested by benefit investigators.”
469. Thanks. I think that some “universal” benefits will have to go, child benefit, child trust fund winter fuel payment, free TV licences. These could be means-tested I think. Hopefully we can avoid punitive tax rises on “the rich” but they may have to take their pain through the loss of some middle-class “perks”.
On funding of the arts, it would be a great shame to see much of this go but it may be necessary. On Covent Garden and ENO, I don’t see why they can’t survive on their own. Glyndebourne, which receives no public subsidy, is incredibly successful and profitable. If ROH and ENO still want to keep cheap tickets then do a deal with private companies, like they did with the Sun.
476. I think he will start charging for museums.
The picture on the front of the BBC website,
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47185000/jpg/_47185463_welder_afp_226_240.jpg
Is that a photo of Beeboids lighting sparklers this morning to celebrate the end of the recession*?
* I hope it was properly risk assessed for H&S and that there was women (young and old) and ethnic minority involvement in order to meet BBC equality and age discrimination rules.
473 - I agree with some of that - especially pay for public sector people on more than £100k, high speed rail, advertising and public sector pensions for new hires.
Unsurprisingly, we differ on tax (income tax especially) and on education vouchers.
479. Fear not SO.
We have no power - we are all hot air.
A Neil saying that the Treasury told him a lot of spending had been brought forward to make use of the lower vat rate before it reversed and so they were expecting very good growth his quarter.
483 That’s the point isn’t it - outside London/SE, it doesn’t feel like we are out of recession. Trying to tell the Midlands, Wales, the North and Scotland that happy days are here again is just going to get Labour a punch in the face…
463 SeanT, I laughed so much reading your post, It is a caricature of all the petty, mean spirited agenda which drives the worse of the tabloids. You want to slash public spending and privatise schools and hospitals, abolish health and safety etc etc. The biggest joke is that you want to keep free admission to museums. So you would select one aspect of public provision because you like to have free entry. You forget that your agenda is not a mainstream one and thank goodness for that. It reeks of a nasty prejudice which would destroy our liberal society. I’m still laughing while my flesh creeps at the thought of your mindset.
483. How does Neil know? There is no regional breakdown in the GDP figures.
62-But remember the guy in the diving suit ended up a hero and the one person all could recall.
by timmo January 26th, 2010 at 7:52 am
Agreed, Indeed he did and indeed we do. So just like our Gordon then
(but without the hero bit)
479. SO: it all looks very bleak.
Thirteen years of Brown have left a huge mess, yes.
482 - And the poor will pay a greater proportion of their income in tax, especially when you factor in the inevitable VAT rises that would accompany a flat tax. And they would also suffer from the monumental cuts in services that such a flat tax would also involve.
Not brilliant GDP figures but what is really depressing is the glee with which they have been greeted by the Conservative doomsters on here . They really do delight in running down the economy of this country .
We even have one idiot who converts everything into $ and uses the fall in the £ to % to make things look worse than they are . This buffoon is presumably quite oblivious to the fact that on that basis this country would probably have been in recession for the whole 18 years of Conservative government from 1979 to 1997 .
On PMQ’s, first lets ignore those who think Brown has somehow invented the trouble in Belfast so he can be out of the country, thats just silly.
Secondly, Cameron will be highly unlikely to bring it up given his parties role in undermining the process.
483 - You’ll note also Neil making the point that Germany has declined more than us, and that even given that they had two recessions this decade. Cable and Byrne agree that premature spending cuts are dangerous.
491. Pay heed Sean.
Lilly is an expert on caricatures.
488 - SO
That’s alright, the diversity of opinion is why we have democracy. We do at least agree on a lot of things, which means that either side of the centre of opinion, there is room for agreement on policies.
491 - I think SeanT is joking about the museums.They can’t be free if you cut their budgets by 20%.
479: Southam Observer @ 12:16
“455 and 469 - When I read things from Tories such as you…”
I say! I take exception to that. I loathe Brown with a passion that knows no bounds. I hold the present Government in scathing contempt for its incompetence, hypocrisy, lies and spin but most of all for it failure to do what they said they would do in 1997. I am, in many ways, conservatively minded, but not even my friends have ever accused me of being a Tory.
Will you retract your foul allegation, sirrah?
Rather than flat tax, how about simplifying the whole system with a rolling of Income Tax, NI and maybe Council Tax into one tax on income?
480. Batch file, did you really predict 0.1% growth for Q4?
If so, chapeau - you beat every single economist on the planet. Bloomberg polled 34 of them, and the predictions went from 0.2% to 0.9%, not one thought it would be as bad as 0.1%.
This is below the worst expectations.
However before we crown you as pb economic punter of the year (so far) do you have a link to your relevant comment? Just for the records.
Then we can hoist you on our shoulders, as you deserve, and carry you to the Plinth of Justified Pessimism.
492 - He then went on to agree that manufacturing had shown the biggest increase so seemed to contradict himself as I doubt London and the SE has the most manufacturing.
501 - I retract unconditionally and beseech you to accept my humblest apology for causing such offence.
479. I think the instinct of those at the top of the Tory Party may offer you some hope SO. The proof of the cake will be in the eating but, to coin a well-worn phrase, “we cant go on like this”, something you have recognized as you are resigned to a Labour defeat and think this is the best thing for Labour.
Some reactions to the GDP results from the WSJ:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/01/26/economists-desperately-disappointing-uk-gdp-figures/
So it looks like congratulations are in order. Darling said the economy would be out of recession by the year end and it seems he was right.
One thing we must credit Brown and Darling with over the last ten years are getting their predictions right unlike some opposition politicians who should go and do a job more suited to their talents.
476-So those living on the client state won’t buy it. Tough. By providing willing stormtroopers for Labour they should be apologising and promising not to vote. Ever again.
What other bits would be universally unpopular? Deporting foreign criminals? Sure, would not make a dent in the budget deficit but unpopular? Payments to EU slush funds? Maybe our MEPs will be forbidden to sit in the Europarliament. Boohoo.
Mr Brown can now smile 0.1% more than he did before - but is it sustainable, or will the jaw have dropped again days before the election??
Two details I found interesting from the inquiry. When Sir Michael Wood gave his legal opinion to Jack Straw he replied, “Why are you being so dogmatic?” and said he was used to much looser legal opinions at the Home Office. When he was asked to prepare an opinion for the cabinet their first, immediate response was, “Why have you written this down?”
508. Roger - could you, in fact, be Adrian Harper?
“One thing we must credit Brown and Darling with over the last ten years are getting their predictions right”
HO HO HO. You obviously not watched Guido’s video from this morning, it just touched the sides! Brown wasn’t right on his figures from 2002 onwards.
497. Not the ‘very long messy complicated tedious’ line you were banking on.
Ozzie gives Gordon another black eye.
Shame everyone else has been thumped by Gordon.
508. Roger: some opposition politicians who should go and do a job more suited to their talents
Don’t worry: after the election, they will.
Government.
495-They voted overwhelmingly for Labour. They should help pick up the tab.
496. Mark, I think you are selectively reading the posts. Some Tories may be showing glee but I think most are feeling pretty depressed that things still aren’t really getting better. As I Tory, part of me is dreading us winning the election because the choices facing us are so horrible. However, as well as naturally wanting us to be in power again, I also really believe that the country desparately needs a Conservative government to deliver the difficult medicine that the left has no stomach to administer.
No gloating here I’m afraid, there is nothing to gloat about.
503 - SeanT, prepare to hoist.
“So I forecast the Q4 will be +0.1% just enough to last for the election naturally. This will be hailed as a great victory for our beloved leader Gordon Brown who will be credited for leading the entire world out of recesssion having steered us through these dangerous times to the saftey of stalingrad after the battle was completed, unlike the do nothing party opposite. “
by Batch File January 13th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/13/how-many-of-these-will-be-mps-after-the-election/#comment-1384263
And the former Business GOAT’s, Digby-Jones, view:
Lord Jones says today’s GDP figures show only that the economy is getting no worse.
Figures today showed the economy had grown by a weaker-than-expected 0.1% in the last three months of 2009.
He said the figures “endorse that view that it’s not getting any worse”, but warned there remained little confidence amongst businesses.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/article/5086/gdp_figures_show_only_that_economy_is_getting_no_worse_says_jones.html
“This is just hunker down - businesses aren’t employing more people, they’re not investing. What we’ve got to build on this little bit of confidence,” he said.
479 SO - The idea that you can’t make huge cuts in public spending without badly affecting essential services is obvious nonsense, peddled by producer interests.
How can I say this with such confidence? Because we only need to get back to the levels of expenditure before Brown went spending-mad to make massive savings. In 2002, I don’t remember public services being disastrously under-funded, yet public expenditure then was very much lower than it was before the financial crisis hit.
The problem, of course, is that as Brown himself has admitted, a ‘culture of excess’ has been allowed to develop in the public sector. Addressing that is the number one issue for Cameron and Osborne, made much harder of course by the total failure of Labour to do anything about it in the ample time we have had since 2008 when the shortfall in revenues became obvious.
The way out of this mess is absolutely clear: firstly, cut out the obvious dross (ID cards, Regional Development Agencies, idiotic IT systems, the Children’s’ Database, tax credits to the rich, some of the quangos, etc etc, - the list is well known, and would have precisely ZERO effect on public services; indeed rather the reverse, it will improve them). I imagine Osborne will start working on that lot on day 1. That easy stuff will be worth a few tens of billions annually within three or four years - a good start, but obviously not enough.
Secondly, start a thorough - and I do mean thorough - trawl of every single item of expenditure and piece of work (such as unnecessary form-filling) in every single department, and see what is unnecessary, and what is necessary but being implemented in a way which is poor value for money. That process - reversing the ‘culture of excess’ - will be bloody hard work, and will take time, but it needs to be done.
Thirdly, start reversing the pay and pension excesses in the public sector. It is ludicrous that we pay salaries of £150K+, plus massively favourable pensions, to bureaucrats doing middling jobs.
Once you’ve done all that lot, it might be necessary to make some savings which actually would affect services, but I suspect not as much as people think.
Just as with successful private companies, with the right attitude and a lot of hard work you can bear down on expenditure year-on-year, saving a bit more each year, and still provide good service.
509 - On their own, privatising the NHS, and cutting state pensions and the education budget by 20% would guarantee the Tories would be voted out of office.
483 Regarding economic growth being confined to London / SE with the rest of the UK still in recession.
I think you can see confirmation of that in the ICM economy figures from last night with people feeling more confident about their personal finances in the South than in the Midlands, North or Scotland. Scotland in particular seemed very bearish with only 6% of people feeling very confident.
519. Sadly few people will derive any confidence from the fatuous outpourings of ‘Lord’ Jones.
520 - That all looks very attractive. But why has no government ever managed it before?
469. “(why do we subsidise Covent Garden Opera and the Ballet or indeed any of the arts?)”
Because it makes us a more civilized country. If you want to turn the country back to the philistanism of Thatcher please don’t claim you’re not a Tory.
If you walks like a duck………..
Gord in the Sunday Mirror last June:
“We now know that the Tories want to cut public spending by a savage 10 per cent. They have finally revealed what their true priorities are: a cuts plan that is wide, deep and immediate in order to fund a £200,000 tax cut for the 3,000 richest families.
David Cameron – Mr 10 Per Cent – would actually make the recession worse, by slowing public spending at exactly the time we need it most.”
Seven months is a long time in politics. The question now is hether Cameron should call Brown Mr 20 per cent or Mr 0.1 per cent.
“I’m still laughing while my flesh creeps at the thought of your mindset.
by Lilly Allen January 26th, 2010 at 12:22 pm”
Peculiar symptoms indeed. Have you considered that you are mentally ill? My suspicion is some kind of brain atrophy.
http://tinyurl.com/yg9nb32
Or maybe Parkinsons, with elements of retardation. Either diagnosis would explain your tendency to vote Labour.
Apparently the public sector grew by 0.2% in Q4…so accounting for the ‘growth’ by that alone.
516 - No they didn’t. They mostly didn’t vote.
520 - Richard, regarding that and your earlier point.
I think Darling must be specific in the budget, but Osborne and Cameron are flatly refusing to answer any questions at the moment.
And look at the latest shambles on prison places.
Duncan and particularly Redwood have policies which would save money, yet it appears they have lost an argument with the high spending populists seemingly marshalled by Andy Coulson.
502. “Rather than flat tax, how about simplifying the whole system with a rolling of Income Tax, NI and maybe Council Tax into one tax on income?”
There is a great deal to be said for simplification. The best way of tackling avoidance would be a simpler system with fewer loopholes, and opportunities for gaming, instead we have the largest tax code in the world.
OT - when did Nadal suddenly become not very good at tennis and massively injury prone? I wonder if it was the FO a couple of a years ago - when Federer finally won it.
He could well be back, but he’s gone from someone I thought could be one of the greats to Leyton Hewitt mark II.
Namecheck for pb.c on the BBC no less..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/seealso/2010/01/daily_view_preparing_for.html
529. Thank heavens for that.
508 Roger spoken like a true luvvie multi-millionnaire who lives overseas most of the time. An end to boom and bust indeed!
Why are people referring to ‘Gordo at PMQs’ tomorrow ??
He will be in Ireland, that is why they’ve bumped Cabinet to Thursday. Unless he wants to be back to claim credit for the recession ending ?
518.
I HEREBY NOMINATE BATCH FILE AS AN EARLY CONTENDER FOR THE PB PUNTER OF THE YEAR (ECONOMICS).
That is a seriously bold and accurate bit of prognosticatin’. As I said upthread, Bloomberg polled dozens of economists for their GDP predictions, and not one of them thought it would be as bad as 0.1%.
Impressive. Well done sir!
532 - He has had the troublesome knees for a number of years now. Not being a doctor (well not a medical one), I understand a Patellar (is it Patella or Patellar BTW) injury is very difficult thing just to “fix” and can be extremely painful when it flares up.
525 Roger! well put; as ever I disagree with you on everything except the stuff you know about (i.e. you only know about stuff when I agree with you on it - this epistemological stance seems to work well for me in all sorts of areas)
fortunately Cammo is no Thatcherite philistine - these days they are usually to be found sucking up to Ed balls.
Since when does being poor limit your ability to vote?
508. “One thing we must credit Brown and Darling with over the last ten years are getting their predictions right”. Umm no.
Let’s take Gordon’s last budget. Borrowing in 2007 budget for 2006/7 was £35bn. This was £6bn than he predicted two years before and £13bn more than he predicted in 2003. A pretty bad prediction given that we were in the midst of a boom.
How about predicting borrowing going forward. In 2008 budget, Darling said borrowing this year (2009-10) would be £38bn, a whopping £140bn out. Not such a great prediction there.
In Alistair Darling 2008 PBR which had the advantage of occurring well into the credit crunch, he estimated borrowing this year would be £118bn, only £60bn out. Improving perhaps but still not great one has to say!
I’m not sure we can put much confidence in Alistair and Gordon’s predictions. Remind me also, what his predictions for grwoth were again?
O/T.
The spirit of Joe Stalin is not dead. ConHome has this gem today:
“Cllr Sir Simon Day, a Conservative councillor on Devon County Council… tells the Local Government Chronicle:
Of course I would prefer to remain in the EPP but we have to accept that we do as we are told by the leadership.
Ein Volk…ein Reich…ein Leiter!
First they came for the Councillors. But I was not a councillor………………
537: To be fair SeanT, I also said ‘anemic rise of 0.1%-0.4%’ Maybe a big range, but I didn’t think the signs were good.
Astonishingly, the Government increased spending on advertising by a massive 43% between Apr 08 and Mar 09.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/20/uk-government-advertising-marketing
That’s 200 million down the swanny and probably even more being spent this year. It’s only one item, but goes to show that money can be saved.
544 - But I now know I should defrost my freezer on a regular basis to save the planet!
7 - “Some late suggestions GDP will bounce higher than analyst expectations today of 0.4%. I have taken a position on sterling strengthening against USD as a result at 1.6240. I have heard so many positive stories from business friends and associates its hard to imagine we’re not on the path to a very strong recovery.”
Lol.
508 - BRILLIANT, Roger! One of the posts of the year so far. Darling was right…
536 No he won’t. He’ll be back here. The Ireland trip was last night and today. Cabinet was pushed to Thursday because it was supposed to be today.
497.
It seems a stretch to lambast Mr Cameron for doing his job as a unionist politician, which should be to find political ways to ensure Sinn Fein doesn’t end up the winner as the result of the failure of Unionism in Northern Ireland to get its electoral act together.
education, education etc
facebook site has p1ssed off 18 year olds railing against aqa’s exam.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8480563.stm
546- reminds me of: http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
530 tim - On prisons, the issue is timing. Any change along the lines Redwood is proposing (and they are interesting proposals) will take two or three years to implement, perhaps more. Meanwhile, because Labour failed to make provision despite numerous warnings, the jails are full. Prison ships, whilst very far from ideal, might be necessary as a short-term measure whilst the deeper reforms are made.
542 - it’s a true sign of how rubbish and badly organised things are in the Labour party that the concept of the Tories doing what their leader said he’d do even before he was elected is seen as some sort of totalitarian act.
Any sane leader would go for an immediate election incase these figures are revised down in Feb - that would be a disaster for Labour.
542. Dear Sir Simon must be so distressed at the thought of perhaps missing out on a few bibulous lunches with his German and French colleagues on the vitally important ‘Committee of the Regions’.
527.
“I’m still laughing while my flesh creeps at the thought of your mindset.”
I actually thought that was a pretty good stab at a genuine Lily Allen song(sic) lyric!
…Our structural debt is not out of line with our competitor economies…
If you are talking about our structural deficit then this is not supported by the IMFs figures for 2010:
UK: 9.6%
USA: 5.4%
France: 4.1%
Germany: 2.2%
UK is second from the bottom notably behind such countries as Greece [Downgraded] and Japan [S&P put on notice for a possible downgrade].
550- the power of the interweb is awesome
http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2010/01/uk-gdp-q4-2009-01.html
GDP measure includes public sector spending, in fact it is about half of the number in less difficult times. This suggests the private sector in the UK is deeply mired in recession still, with large shrinkage in each successive qaurter.
I see Mark Senior has had the gall to stick his oar in - after six quarters of the deepest recession any of us have ever known - a recession that he said would not happen because recessions only happen under Tory Govts. Without doubt, the worst prognostication ever posted on pb.com. But now the economy is in growth, we can pretend it never happened, and go on about Tories running down the economy.
Thank you for your input into economic affairs, Mr Senior. We will all take due regard of your impeccable record.
508. Roger, are you competing with itchy Dick for the dumbest post of the year award? Give us a break!
One thing we must credit Brown and Darling with over the last ten years are getting their predictions right
ROFLMAO
In the 2007 Budget, Brown’s estimate for Government current receipts for the period of 2007-2012 was £3,085 billion. Darling’s estimate in 2009 for the same period (supported by actuals where appropriate) was £2,680 billion. So in two years a £405 billion pound black hole was created. Ignoring 2007-08 which turned out to have a £5 billion black hole, it means that Gordon Brown overestimated receipts on average by £100 billion for each year between 2008 and 2012.
Darling is not much better as the 2008 budget has only a slightly lesser £378 billion black hole in current receipts.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/bud_bud08_repindex.htm
David Clelland to stand down because “he had decided to go now in order to get the best out of his retirement”.
He’s the MP for Tyne Bridge and was selected to stand in the new Gateshead constituency. He’s 66 years old and in the Commons since 1985.
556 A fair summation of a reaction to a Lily Allen song mor elike…
SeanT. Your delight at what you consider a poor peformance by this country’s economy is typical of the right wing and what really spooks us non Tories. you can see it all the way from Trevor Kavanagh to Madame Defarge herself Amanda Platell. As you might say on a pompous day ‘it’s unedifying’.
552 - Thats not true, we could stop sending people to jail for under six months very quickly.
Camerons plans to spend £119,000 per new prison place, plus £40k per annum per prisoner is madness in the extreme.
(sadly I think Labour won’t be much different when it comes to the manifesto arms race)
557. Ouch. More grist to the mill of the argument that dealing with the deficit needs to happen sooner rather than later.
562 Andrea, as I posted earlier, I expect a flood of other Labour MP’s to now throw in the towel. They are experienced enough to know when there is no proposition to take to the voters.
559 - Which would suggest that the government has no choice but to keep on spending.
554. Perhaps Gordo will finally plump for a late Feb early March GE, confounding everybody.
Of course, knowing our Jonah, polling day will dawn with 6 feet of snow covering the land.
525. Roger - this is classic Labour mythology about the Conservatives being philistines when if comes to the arts. As someone who worked in the arts throughout the eighties and the nineties I can, with some authority, confirm that the arts flourished in the 1980s (art cinema, my particular speciality, was booming, unlike today)despite the loathing leftists in the arts had for Thatcher. In fact her policy of investment rather than subsisdy (wildly derided at the time - oh how times change) modernized arts organizations across the country who were forced to develop desperately needed marketing skills. John Major, moreover is the unsung hero of arts regeneration in this country. The National Lottery (much opposed by many a lefty as ‘a tax on the poor’) was the single most influential act by any post war government to fund and develop the arts in Britian. Indeed for many years the Arts Council was seen as a bit of a Tory bastion, until it got into the hopeless hands of New Labour since when this illustrious institution has been in a very sad decline.
@568:
That’s what economists call a “sunk-cost fallacy”.
astateofdenmark @544, I don’t see why money spent on advertising to change people’s behaviour and improve road safety (for example) is “down the swanny” - unless you’ve got evidence that the advertising doesn’t work, or that you could save more lives spending it in a different way.
And if you’re going to spend money on campaigns like this, spending more in a recession is exactly the kind of thing you should be doing. You’ll get much more for your money when there’s a lot of advertising space going cheap, and spending it will have some multiplier effects that will help reduce unemployment and increase tax revenues.
The corollary is that it should be possible to cut it right back if and when the economy gets better, when it would cost more and the spending would risk causing inflation.
568. “Which would suggest that the government has no choice but to keep on spending.”
In the same way that an alkoholic has no choice to keep on drinking to avoid the DTs. Gordon Brown has had the country on the booze for so long its liver has all but packed up and will soon be beyond help.
272 Oracle January 26th, 2010 at 10:12 am “Guido with a video reminding us of Labour’s great predictions for the economy over the past couple of years,”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGaDahB2Ysk
Very good stuff in actually nailing all Labour’s errors in forecasting the end of the recession. and “I Saved the World”
Loved the audience’s comments at the end of “If I got hold of that Gordon Brown I would shove that f****** Nokia up his F***** A*****”
539. Kingbongo. Welcome back! I thought you’d been lost to academia.
A rare non philistine Tory-and I hope you’re right about Cameron.
572 Edmund - Rather the other way round, isn’t it? Do they have evidence that the advertising does work, and is cost-effective?
Maybe they do, but forgive us for being highly sceptical.
The key is to fund the arts, without it becoming a slush fund for dim-witted leftie spoons, who make up an alarmingly large proportion of those who ‘work’ in the arts.
That’s why I’m a contributor to and supporter of the work of the New Culture Forum and Peter Whittle.
http://www.newcultureforum.org.uk/home/
He has some very interesting ideas of how the arts can be liberated from marxist stagnation.
572 - Have you seen or heard many of these adverts?
And research has shown the previous campaigns on sexual health and drinking (two reasonable areas for government advertising, rather than freezer defrosting) have failed miserably.
543. Sorry, not as impressive. 0.1-0.4% wasn’t exactly sticking yer neck out, was it?
Batch file nailed it, bang on: 0.1%. Below the forecast of every major economist. That IS impressive.
Roger, I do not gloat at my nation’s decline, see my bitterly angry posts above. This is my daughter’s future, my family’s future, my friends’ future, being ruined by Labour.
I am however trying to solace myself the one way I know how, which is to take some arid comfort in the fact that terrible economic figures make it more likely your useless scumbag party wlll be consigned to oblivion, whence I hope they shall not return in my lifetime.
525. If opera and ballet are so loved by their fans, then those that enjoy them can pay for their production, just like I do for rock concerts and football matches.
532. AD , not much he can do with knackered knees, once they are gone its finito.
550 Dr Spyn - when I was at college we were taught the wrong syllabus for a whole year by one lecturer - it only came out when just before our 1st year exam when he was sick and another lecturer stood in - and we all sat there thinking WTF are you talking during a seminar.
I’d forgotten all about it until reading that!
A government safer sex campaign aimed at teenagers has been branded a “gimmicky” waste of taxpayers’ money.
“Want respect? Use a condom” campaign included a specially-made drama series, called “Thmbnls” which cost £250,000.
But only 5,576 mobile phone users signed up for the videos, which meant it cost £45 per subscriber when set against the cost of the film.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8074914.stm
No waste there then.
562. He fought of a challenge from another sitting MP (member for Gateshead East) to get the nomination - and now he changes his mind!
Incidentally, the first time I voted was in his by-election win - I voted SDP!
572. Edmund in Tokyo
Do Government adverts on minority channels like Fox News at 4am in the morning (and it happened many times) seem like an appropriate way to spend taxpayers money in the middle of a recession.
Does duplication of advertising both online (the government gateway has been publishing jobs as do most civil service departments for a few years its not new) and in the Dead tree press seem appropriate?
Does sending out millions of leaflets about swine flu that are just binned whilst it is also advertised in the dead tree press, on TV and online etc etc seem like appropriate expenditure?
My take is that advertising budget could have easily been halved by simply effectively targetting advertising and cutting out duplication.
577. There would still be a big space for those dim-witted leftie spoons at the BBC of course.
553.
“the concept of the Tories doing what their leader said he’d do even before he was elected is seen as some sort of totalitarian act.”
One of the things he said he’d do was to set local government free!
But when you have a leader modelled on Bliar, what do you expect?
585: the fact government spending on “public information” repeatedly balloons by many tens of millions per year before an election is a giveaway as to its true purpose: making the government seem active.
“If opera and ballet are so loved by their fans, then those that enjoy them can pay for their production, just like I do for rock concerts and football matches.”
That’s a bit harsh: where else can roger take his clients to see productions of “Les Mis” and at the same time assuage his capitalist guilt by sinking into his seat and imagining himself on the barricades, leading the people, the vanguard of the proletariat (in an expensive leather coat and scarf)?
570.
“mythology about the Conservatives being philistines when if comes to the arts”
There’s a lot of great art in Filistia. Don’t besmirch the Filistians by comparing them to Tories please.
Cameron needs to mention that it’s good to hear we are emerging from recession. albeit last among the G7, AFTER ENTERING BEFORE THEM. The big overiding problem is how do you get growth with such an enormous debt hanging over us? what does Brown propose ?
Cut or Spend ? When will he stop kidding the public that things are rosy ?
I would tear into Brown tomorrow like never before. Cameron needs to be very very angry!
590 - Wage-slave, do you serve any purpose or are you a computer glitch..?
@Roger
Why should opera and other highbrow arts get subsidies, when should pop and football not? The original composers weren’t state subsidised, they had to rely on pleasing their (very rich) audiences. Just calling people philistines is not an argument.
NEWSFLASH!!!
UK Economy grows by fifteen pence
Darling sounds rattled even though he is being interviewed by Ed Stourton on R4 WATO…
581 It’s a shame, he was King of Clay, won 6 Grand Slam events and had a great record against Federer, one of the all time greats, but it does look like late 2008, early 2009 was his summit, a short interlude in the Age of the Fed.
591 I thought Ozzie had a good simple observation - ‘we were first into recession and last out’
Still if Gordon does appear at PMQs, I’ll be surprised.
524 No government has done so previously, because no government has had to do so.
The prospect of being hanged can concentrate the mind wonderfully.
560 Thanks for reminding us. Mark has often asserted that recessions only occur under the Conservatives.
588. Oh don’t I know it!
I just wanted to point out the brazeness of Brown’s regime in actions like buying Sky’s goodwill with pointless advertising that virtually nobody in this country was going to see.
As you say Brown has made an art of being ‘busy doing nothing’,
Radio 4 WATO: Alistar Darling following Tims line that the anemic GDP growth figures are actually a big problem for the Tories, as their plans for savage cuts are based on stronger growth, and the country being out of recession
596, aye, it’s pretty remarkable how few injuries Federer has had. Even last season, I think he had a reasonable serious illness (some fever or flu or other) and won 2 Grand Slams.
600 - No surprise there then. Remember the Tories are also talking the country down and are unpatriotic!
@596: yes, sadly quite common with guys who win Roland Garros as a teenager, they burn out and are done by 24.
Nadal did say post-match that today was his best performance since last year’s Aus Open though, so clearly he feels things are gradually improving.
569 “polling day will dawn with 6 feet of snow covering the land”
Then tim won’t be smirking at Dave’s team of huskies, will he?
600 Flashback - Great election-winning line that. ‘Vote for us because we’re ensuring the recovery remains weak’
593. Artists before state subsisdies were supported by their very rich patrons. A rather different matter.
600. This isn’t going to wash. It’s too sophisticated an analysis for voters. “Tory plans to cut the deficit are wrong because we have got weaker growth than expected…”
er… who is Chancellor? Why do we have weaker growth?
All the man on the Battersea Bendy Bus will know is that the economy has been totally f*cked by Labour, who have given us the longest recession since the war, after promising no more boom and bust.
Whether savage cuts must by made by next November, or the following June, whether our deficit is structural or cyclical, whether growth needs quantitative easing or fiscal retraint, won’t matter, it’s nitpicky and geeky.
Labour are crap, kick them out, is the narrative which will dominate. Not least cause it is true.
600 Zippy used the expression “Tories slamming on the brakes” on DP and using the double-dip as a weapon to beat them with.
A novel approach - this mess we recreated should be left to us to fix - and if it still carries on being crap - it woz the Tories that caused it.
I’m not sure how many people are going to be convinced by that.
601 - Probably because he is so good, he has that ability that only the very greatest have of being able to win so many games without seeming to break sweat! Even in the big games, he seems to be able to turn the dial up and down as and when required.
Nadal’s game on the other hand is all action, flat out 100% of the time. Very much like Hewitt.
Richard Navabi @576: “Rather the other way round, isn’t it? Do they have evidence that the advertising does work, and is cost-effective? Maybe they do, but forgive us for being highly sceptical.”
Quite a bit turns up if you Google something like “road safety advertising ROI”. Like this:
http://tinyurl.com/yevv4lr
(OK, it’s an advertising publication, they’re probably biased…)
But putting it another was, 200 million is a tiny fraction of what the private sector spend on advertising. Firms don’t spend that money for fun; They spend it because it changes behaviour. Now, it’s possible that the government completely screwing the whole thing up, not changing anyone’s behaviour and that Oracle’s example @583 is typical, rather than exceptional. But I don’t see why you’d assume that.
If anything, given how much of government spending is spent cleaning up people’s mistakes, that number (less than 4 pounds a head) sounds much, much too low. The government should be spending less fixing people up after their bad decisions put them in hospital, and more telling them how to keep themselves out of hospital in the first place.
Unfortunately the political environment is such that even if the ROI is better, Cameron probably doesn’t feel safe to run on “I’ll cut the NHS, not the government advertising budget.”
600. So the economies failure to be stimulated sufficiently by Brown and Darlings measures further hampers our recovery. Go figure….
Its not just a problem for the Conservatives, it is a problem for the country. Perhaps if Darling realised this and stopped playing petty politics we might actually get some real recovery!
Of course it could be that a big part of the problem is that the financial and business sectors have no confidence in Brown and Darling and that in no small part is suppressing any recovery?
In which case, with their removal things might just perk up….
525 Roger
“Because it makes us a more civilized country.”
Bless you, my boy, a resposne straght out of Yes Minister. A real Sir. Humphrey style knee-jerk and as has been pointed out factually inaccurate as well.
Along with your Darling and Brown getting their predictions right for the last ten years, this has to be one of your best efforts.
Now, if the country is skint, which I think we can agree it is, and choices have to be made, which they do, what is limited money best spent on - Covent Garden and other minority interests or things that really matter to the majority and to the nation? If somethng has to go I know what us non-tory types would choose.
600. Liam Byrne on the DP was similarly looking shaken. Never seen him so subdued.
Labour “Dont let the Tories take us into a triple dip recession !”
607 - It’l be the Lib Dem line as well (and probably the Ken Clarke line in private and in the 90’s)
608, it’s not novel. I’m pretty sure Des Browne used that strategy over something or other when he expressed a degree of regret that can be equated with an apology.
from Anthony Wells
the end of last year I wrote a piece saying I thought there were four “known unknowns” that might change the political picture before the election campaign. The first was Labour’s final chance to change their leader in January – as we’ve seen, there was an attempt by Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt to force Brown out, but it fell flat and does not appear to have had any lasting effect upon the polls.
The second was the end of the recession and, as expected, this morning’s economic figures show Britain’s economy is officially growing again. So, what impact will this have on the polls and will it produce any sort of Labour recovery?
Polls asking if people are more likely to vote Labour if the economy recovers don’t predict any significant advance – but I wouldn’t take them as a particularly good indicator anyway. If Labour do recover on the back of the economic good news I suspect it won’t be on the back of a direct conscious calculation that they have done well and deserve support (we saw with ICM’s poll for Channel 4 yesterday that a relatively small proportion of people attribute the recover to government action). Rather it will be a more subconscious increase in optimism and the “feel good factor”, leading people to think better of the way the country is going and more likely to back the government.
That said, it’s not actually a given that it will be a positive for the government. In ICM’s marginals poll last weekend we saw that one area where Gordon Brown still had much better ratings than David Cameron was handling a crisis. Populus’s poll this month asked a pair of questions they’ve used several times since the credit crunch – asking who would make the best Prime Minister “right now, to deal with Britain’s economy in recession” and who would make the best Prime Minister going forward after the election – Cameron’s lead over Brown was 11 points on the first question, but 17% on the latter. If Gordon Brown is actually still benefitting by being seen as the best man to lead the country in an economic crisis, the passing of that crisis could, perversely, be a negative for him.
We shall see when the first post-recession polls begin arriving.
Sorry I missed something - who is being referred to as Zippy?
610 - “But putting it another was, 200 million is a tiny fraction of what the private sector spend on advertising.”
Talking rubbish,
The move comes after industry figures showed the Government had overtaken major companies to become Britain’s biggest spender on advertising.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1316317/Government-is-advertisings-top-spender.html
575 thanks Roger - academia has my attention but i still read if not comment on PB and like to encourage the old hands to keep posting - if only to provide some continuity - I’m now actually doing some research work on networks of collaboration in new media and PB is a good source of data
608/616 Isn’t this why no-one ever resigns any more? I got us into this troube - and I’m the only one who can get us out of it. Fascinating logic.
Feeling a bit light hearted with, as Victoria Derbyshire said, all this good news( Murray winning through, UK bouncing out of recession and the sun shining IIRC) so going back to the title of this thread, surely Gordon has been grinning since the day he beat the Sun? His tearful adoption of victimhood that day seems to have been the foundation of his PMQ champion performances, his bubbly jokes…
and today he gets pictured with Cowen, so he even gets to be the better looking politician.
SKY leading bulletins with Labour’s illegal war in Iraq.
Is the economy out of recession? Not that the news wants to be associated with telling you…
613 I thought the giant middle-finger by the ONS holding there own press conference was hilarious.
Boy is that guy is still really peed off with HMG over those knife crime stats
I think it’s a great move - the only way for the public’s confidence to start growning.
Zippy was definitely very quiet - that’s twice they’ve thought things were on the up big time, I assume they believed what Mr Darling said :D.
618:Liam Byrne
Economics 101
“Fear the Boom and Bust” a Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem
508 - Roger “One thing we must credit Brown and Darling with over the last ten years are getting their predictions right”
The 2007 Budget predicted that there would be no budget deficit in 2009/10 and that indeed it would move into surplus “even on cautious assumptions”. In fact, it will be well over £150bn and probably over £175bn.
It would have been difficult to have got a prediction more wrong, particularly one made so close to the event.
621 - I’m the clumsy doofus who dropped the ming vase, so I’m the one best placed to piece it back together again - ludicrous logic.
Do people in the UK feel like they’re out of recession? That will be the crucial question on election day.
Zippy = Liam Byrne, coined during last week’s QT - can’t recall which poster - it’s so perfect for him!
520 Nice to hear from you again, Kingbongo.
Good luck with your latest project and do post from time to time during the forthcoming electoral excitements.
623. Not a great day for Labour, their two overwhelming legacies underlined in a single morning.
The war we waged in Iraq was an illegal and bloody disaster.
We presided over the longest recession in a century, after promising no more boom and bust.
Whoops, I forgot Sure Start. There’s always Sure Start.
A suicide car bomber has killed at least 18 people and injured 80 at a government forensics centre in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, police say…..
On Monday, bomb attacks near well-known hotels in the city killed 36 people…
There have been fears that attacks will increase as the parliamentary election approaches in March and those predictions seem to be coming true.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8480220.stm
I hope Timmy doesn’t start giving more dodgy stats about how Iraq is safer than Eastbourne again.
Oracle @619, that link doesn’t refute my claim that “200 million is a tiny fraction of what the private sector spend on advertising.”
It says: “The Government spent more than £16.4 million on advertising in February, according to the latest figures from the media monitoring service ACNielsen MMS. Unilever, the detergent firm, was the second-biggest advertiser spending £12.2 million while the rival soap group Procter and Gamble came third with £10.1 million.”
In other words, even in a particularly newsworthy month, the amount spent by the entire government on advertising to us about all of the miriad ways we do stupid things that end up costing the taxpayer money was less than the private sector spent on advertising soap.
oops - “start growning” = start growing!
624 - I think they should use the knife crime stats you made up yesterday, Eastbourne = East Bronx.
618 Liam Byrne
After Balls and perhaps Sion Simon, Byrne is the one I most look forward to being ousted.
625. But zippy distinctly lacked zip on today’s DP. The spin line about Tory cuts preventing recovery is so threadbare it’s barely holding together. Rather like Labour’s frontbench today.
The recession in graphs.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5732643/the-economy-has-gone-precisely-nowhere-in-5-years-but-at-considerable-cost.thtml
Coffee House has picked up on point I made earlier, that GDP is back where it was when this Parliament was elected but debt has nearly doubled.
As they say “the cost of the economy going nowhere has not been as lacking as the growth or living standard increases. The national debt has virtually doubled since the last general election, rising from £440 billion to £870 billion now. By the time of the election in May, it is likely that Gordon Brown will have managed to rack up a bill of half a trillion pounds to deliver an economy that has gone absolutely nowhere for half a decade.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5732643/the-economy-has-gone-precisely-nowhere-in-5-years-but-at-considerable-cost.thtml
638 Sion Simon is top of my list - he’s such an oaf.
New Thread.
634 - Unilever and P&G do a lot more than soap! Those two companies are vast organisations making many many different products.
The fact is the government are spending more on advertising than these vast organisation do in the UK. You were comparing apples and oranges saying well £200mill is tiny for say Pesco, yes but Pesco advertise in every country in the world.
439.kingbongo, welcome back!!
610 Edmund - That link you found looks fair enough, but it refers to a very specific and measurable campaign. What we seem to have fallen into is a culture of advertising for advertising’s sake, or simply to ‘big up’ quangos and local authorities. For example, the FSA running ads saying how wonderful they are, or those idiotic leaflets local authorties send around telling us how wonderful they are at collecting our rubbish bins. I would be very surprised if there is any sensible cost justification for that stuff.
In any case, at a time when the public finances are in total collapse, the attitude should not be (as it so often seems to be) ‘well, this expenditure might be quite useful, so let’s keep it’. The attitude should be ‘Do we absolutely have to do this?’
We are very far from that yet - as a cursory glance at the Guardian Jobs page shows:
http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/job/958845/stakeholder-relationships-manager/
Plenty of easy savings when you look though those pages. It is absolutely staggering that the public sector is still blatantly hosing money down the drain [no pun intended!]
Byrne lives in dream world again !
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/article/5096/byrne_recovery_might_not_be_nationwide_.html?comment_msg=Thank+you.+Your+comment+has+been+added
634: I don’t care about the soap companies….I care about my taxes.
“UK bouncing out of recession ”
Dribbling out of it, more like.
The Chancellor’s “brilliant” forecasting record called into question in all the TV interviews today. Given the “spectacular” 0.1% growth, how good is his prediction of 3% growth next year looking?
649 So it goes up and then comes down with a very nasty jolt at the end of it. It reminds ee of a ‘Dan
AirDare’ landing in Corfu I once experienced where we ‘bounced’ down the runwayNot exactly what we want to experience I suggest……..
Re 651 ee = me
And New Thread
Afternoon all
Re: 520 - The same old depressing anti-public sector stuff we’ve come to expect, I’m afraid.
I don’t disagree with getting rid of the ID database and the quangos and that might achieve some useful savings.
It’s the second bit I find staggering - apparently every “single item of expenditure and piece of work” is going to be auditted. First, I can only imagine the consultancies that will make fortunes out of that or will the Cameron Government simply another army of public servants to audit the work of existing public servants ?
Second, you’d better believe most local councils are acutely aware of their expenditure and their processes. Many operate a voluntary year-on-year 3% efficiency savings target and even relatively small items of expenditure (over £1k) need senior officer approval.
As for pay, yes, the CEOs of some Councils are overpaid though many of the highest-paid are in Conservative-run County Councils such as Suffolk and Surrey. There is a huge disparity in salary between the managers and the managed.
I would argue that many, indeed most, councils are doing a lot to save money and be more efficient. I can’t speak to PCTs, central Government, other areas of the NHS etc.
I would also argue that demands on local council services in areas like education and residential and home-based care for the elderly and those with mental or physical disabilities is only going to increase with time.
Are we only just out of recession? But the site’s most sagacious poster said the economy would have returned to growth by Q2:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/10/the-speaker-election-is-labour-backing-margaret-beckett/#comment-1107560
0.1% growth - basically the Christmas shopping run up. The last country to stumble out of recession but what next? The next quarter figures may not be good. We are in collosal debt. We have a huge 5 million real unemployment. The Govt has massaged jobs with vast public sector growth that is unsustainable. Our country is less favourable to business in international terms.