Do you fancy a 20/1 shot in a 4-way marginal??
January 21st, 2010
What will Esther and Chilcott do to Luton South
An interesting little side story of the coming general election is what happens in Luton South - one of the seats listed here earlier in the week as being high on the target list for the Tories and one they really need to take in order to get a majority.
Looking at the 2005 notionals LAB 42.8: CON 28.1: LD 22.5 this should fall easily to the Cameron juggernaut even though the incumbent Labour MP who figures so much inn the expenses affair is not standing.
Yet hugely complicating factors are the candidature of Esther Rantzen - the former “That’s Life” presenter and what happens to the very large Muslim vote at a time when Chilcott is putting the Iraq war on the agenda again.
Esther, who has always been a publicity magnet, has been getting some remarkable coverage and the chances are that this will continue until polling day. See this from the Daily Mail earlier in the week part of which is featured above.
You can see her winning votes from both Labour and the Tories but not, I suggest from the seat’s Muslim communities who are likely to back a leading Labour councillor, Qurban Hussain, who defected to the Lib Dems in 2003 the year, of course, of the invasion of Iraq.
All 63 of the current crop of Lib Dem MPs are white and, no doubt, Clegg would love to change this. Could Luton South be their best prospect and what does that mean in campaigning terms.
If you read this as a four way marginal as I do then the Lib Dem betting prices are quite tasty. William Hill have the LDs there at 18/1, Victor Chandler 20/1 and Bet365 16/1. The last price to be matched on Betfair was 2.5 - or 6/4 in old money.
Mike Smithson
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First?
Mike is this a four way marginal? I think that Esther is likely to pick off the disillusioned anti labour vote that doesn’t want an other Labour MP, and won’t vote Tory to shift Brown’s government. And that is the same pool of voters that the Libdems are trying to garner. If anything, I think that this helps the Tory candidate further, hence those odds on the Libdem.
Third at last.
3 PfP
That’s Life.
Warning - parochial post, but its such a incredible landmark in Aberdeen, and you can go right past it and not know it is there. And the decision of the local council two centuries ago is kind of ironic too.
BBC Scotland - Aberdeen’s ‘Granite City’ quarry goes on sale
“A famous quarry credited with giving Aberdeen its name of the Granite City is being sold on the open market for the first time in 150 years.
Rubislaw Quarry, believed to be the biggest man-made hole in Europe, closed in 1971.
The five-acre quarry is 466ft deep and 394ft wide and now full of water. Offers over £30,000 are being sought.
Possible uses suggested include using it for water sports, or draining it and using the quarry for climbing.
Rubislaw Quarry is in the heart of Aberdeen’s west end.
It was opened in 1740 at the Hill of Rubislaw and sold by the Aberdeen Council to a businessman in 1778, as it was not believed to be a source of good building material.However, over the next two centuries, it is estimated millions of tonnes of granite were excavated from the quarry which was acclaimed for its quality.
Its legacy lives on in the granite famously used in many of Aberdeen’s buildings as well as in landmarks around the world.”
And I suspect that Roger will recognise the area too.
re 2. This is just down the road from where I live and used to be part of the former Beds CC on which I sat. I know it well and it is much more complex than you can imagine.
Nobody really knows what the Rantzen affect will be - but she’ll get a mass of publicity and could eat into the Tory vote as well as Labour. For the reasons outlined above she isn’t going to cut the mustard amongst the large Muslim communities which is what makes this interesting.
In recent elections there was a lot of Lib Dem tactical voting for Labour - that’s not going to happen and you could see that working the other way round.
Sure - the Tories are rightly the favourites - but the 20/1 Lib Dem price is too good to miss. Anything could happen here.
I’ve had a couple of pints of Speckled Hen on the LibDems. No real chance, but it looks like a decent trading opportunity.
BTW I couldn’t find VC’s constituency markets displayed on their website, but I was able to find this bet by searching for “Luton South”.
6.Mike, if this was 2005, I would be joining you in agreeing this was a price too good to miss. And, more importantly, you have the local knowledge to back up your hunch. But this time, I doubt Esther will take votes from the Tories, not in this GE with a change of government at stake. But what she could do, is split the Labour/Libdem vote even further, allowing the Tory candidate to shoot through the middle as it were, and needing less votes to achieve a majority.
O/T, sorry, but a huge hat tip is due to Tim for spotting the great betting opportunity with PP on the end year unemployment figure. This looked like a certain 5/2 winner from Day 1 and so it proved.
Uncharacteristically (big word at 4.20am!), they have yet to pay out.
So if Muslims in Luton vote for a muslim candidate regardless of their political party that is surely voting based on colour and religion.
The fact Rantzen is Jewish is not mentioned in the article but clearly that does not help get many muslim votes.
This approach of voting by race had a big effect with Obama, and shows that it is natural for people of all colours to support one of their own who they feel instinctively is more likely to stand up for them. Is that racist?, no i do not think so.
The labour party, perhaps the natural home as now for many muslims, clearly does not match the needs of Britain’s muslim community, and the Iraq war will continue that resentment.
Accordingly, it will not be more than another 5 year electoral cycle before a party designed for muslims specifically will stand in certain seats in England, and garner the majority of the muslim vote in these constituencies.
If they have a majority of constituents and the lib/lab/conm vote splits then 30% of voters could win the seat, a realistic number to attain.
MP’s in Leicester, Luton, and Bradford perhaps?
The whole idea that Esther Rantzen might get a significant number of votes is completely ridiculous. She wioll come fourth if she’s lucky. She’ll come third if the voters are mad. She’ll come second if Hell froze over on Wednesday 5th May. She’ll win if successive generations of scientists have completely misunderstood the whole basis of the fabric of the space-time continuum of the whole universe.
Back on thread, can someone please explain why La Rantzen is so set on contesting this particular seat after the incumbent Labour MP has declared she is standing down. Surely there are more fertile opportunities for her elsewhere?
Which reminds me, the Legg report is due to be published in just two weeks’ time - this should prove to be very interesting!
Three threads ago: What’s Massachusetts going to do Obama’s re-election chances? Could be become a one-term president?
I think the Massachusetts result makes it more likely that he will win a second term, not less. It means he will have to shift towards the centre and moderate things in order to pass any sort of health care legislation - or indeed anything else of substance. And remember, three years is a long time in politics.
JamesBurdett Hmm I think there may be something wrong with the machinery at PB Towers, everytime I try to refresh PB.com it crashes my browser whichever one I’m using.
I’m glad you said that - it’s been happening to me in the last few days as well. At least the problem is not here at my end with my relatively new computer.
James Kelly As the current Labour government is often cited as being just about the most right-wing government in western Europe (excluding maybe Italy) I can’t imagine how far right we must have been until 1997.
? An odd comment! On the subject of civil liberties, authoritarianism and inequalities of wealth, the current Labour government is far to the right of the Conservative government before 1997.
re: Thatcher and the Falklands. Thatcher did not win the 1983 election because she was “saved” by the Falklands war. The Conservative Party won the 1983 election because the Labur Party was so awful and left-wing under Michael Foot. The Falklands War merely gave the Conservative Party a temporary boost in the opinion polls. By 1983 the opinion polls had reverted to the point they would have reached anyway without the Flaklands effect.
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Tom Knox wrote: I have now written 37,428 words of my thriller. In just under three weeks.
Did you count the 37,428 words yourself? Or did your computer have a clever county-thing to tell you? If the former, I would advise you that you need to do a recount to check. When I counted the words in “Animal Farm” by George Orwell, I got to 29,993. When I did four re-counts I got 30,174 and 30,178 and 30,180 and 30,198. Then I discovered that the original 29,993 had an error in the addition where 200 was omitted, so it should have been 30,193.
I can’t really get into the debate about best first lines of a novel. I hardly ever read fictional books or novels. I read reference books; I refer to books; I look things up; I read historical or political books. Whenever we “did” novels in Eng Lit at school, I almost always hated them or thought they were incredibly boring, or both. I just couldn’t get into them at all. (Maybe it’s because I’m autistic). The great exceptions are Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty-Four. I can just about manage with children’s stories like George’s Marvellous Medicine, the BFG or Harry Potter. I only managed to struggle through “Oliver Twist” (badly written and old-fashioned style) because I knew the story from several films and TV dramas. It was a bright cold day in April, and the first line had an awkward jarring effect which introduced the reader to the idea that there was something alien about this environment even though it was about an ordinary worker in an ordinary London suburb.
Tom Knox Here are all the first lines to my books, apart from the very first novel, Absent Fathers, which is so old, unread and obscure even I don’t have a copy.
Aha! So Tom Knox is J.R. Hartley!
——————-
I had a random thought which occurred to me yesterday: If John Smith had had his heart attack four hours later, he would have died on live TV during PMQs.
I also had a
dreamnightmare last night. The Labour Party won the general election, Gordon Brown retired due to ill-health, and Ed Balls became prime minister. My dream was edited to make it look as though Ed Balls was walking in slow-motion as if he was someone like Mao or Göring in a Channel 4 documentary.—————–
Repeat question: why are most of the Downfall spoofs based on the same clip? I have asked a number of times before but nobody has had any idea of the answer.
11 LOL! A very accurate assessment of her prospects imho. If VC are being generous in offering 20/1 against the LibDeems, the same can scarcely be said about their 6/1 odds against La Rantzen.
14 Yep, I reckon her chances are only slightly better than La Loony in Croydon…. (I mean John not the former Tory MP!)
15 M - Cruel, so cruel, the same thought occurred to me, but I couldn’t bring myself to say it! But then our very own MRLP representative in Croydon is at least having some fun, whereas Esther appears to be in deadly earnest.
o.t. good strategic thinking from brown and co. not.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8471608.stm
“Cutting FCO expenditure on counter-terrorism programmes in Pakistan because of the movement of exchange rates is clearly not the way to run an effective foreign policy.”
will ester be an also ran? if she tries for that seat, it would be a big result for a jewess to win over support from non co-religionists with largely unenlightened views on the role of woman and rebellious daughters, subjects which the great harriet of peckham ought to be unafraid to champion in luton south. if ester is serious about becoming an mp she ought to look elsewhere, but if she loses her deposit then that’s life.
This is the GE we’re talking about - not a local or euro protest votey thing. Mike, with all due respect - Luton will go blue same as the rest of England.
Can the frustrated people of Luton possibly think that Esther is the best choice to affect a change?
13 “I think the Massachusetts result makes it more likely that he will win a second term, not less.”
I think it depends how ideological he is and the same for the people around him. Personally i don’t think he’s particularly ideological at all so that points in one direction but i think his wife is and the people pulling his strings may not want to give in just yet either so too early to tell imo.
Personally I find Esther very irritating, but judging by here fame, I guess I am not very representative.
Some Stats (almost all from Anthony Wells)
Luton South is Tory target 140 requiring a 7.35% swing.
Wells comments: “Luton South is the most reliable bellwether seat in the country, having been won by the party that went on to form the government in every election since 1951.”
Ethnic/religious breakdown
White:…..71.6%
Black:……5.5%
Asian:…..19.6%
Mixed:……2.2%
Other:……1.0%
Christian:.57.9%
Hindu:……1.8%
Muslim:….17.4%
Sikh:…….0.6%
2005 GE Actual Result
Con..10960 (28.2%)
Lab..16610 (42.7%)
LD:…8778 (22.6%)
Grn:…790 ( 2% )
UKIP:..957 ( 2.5%)
Oth:…823 ( 2.1%)
Maj:..5650 (14.5%)
June 2009 Luton Town (i.e incl. North & South)
Lab.10102..24.5%
Con..9138..22.1%
LD…6913..16.7%
UKIP.6403..15.5%
BNP..3038…7.4%
Grn..2247…5.4%
Oth..3435…8.3%
Some thoughts
1. Moran expenses story had broken before June 2009 yet Labour still (narrowly) won Luton Town vote in Euros. Luton South however is not Luton Town and includes rural wards.
2. Qurban Hussain (LD Candidate) stood in Euros. Wells believes 16.7% LD vote June Euro vote skews to Luton South constituency.
3. Luton South includes rural wards which voted 75% Tory in Euros. (Don’t know proportion)
4. UKIP have not yet declared a candidate but took 15.4% in June 2009 Euros. Seems unlikely that they won’t contest. This is major factor. Comments on UKP threads suggest only 40% of UKIP vote came from Tories.
5. BNP have also not yet declared a candidate but they only achieved 7.4% in June 2009. Can’t see Griffin passing up the opportunity of getting a free ride on the back of Rantzen’s publicity though. Muslim demo in Luton against returning soldiers also ups the ante here.
5. Rantzen will appeal more to LD white voters and disaffected Labour voters than to Tories, although a proportion of WWC Tories may switch.
Prediction
UNS and regional/marginal swing suggest Cons by a small majority. Tories have good embedded candidate and this as said earlier THE bell wether seat.
LDs also have good local councillor candidate but the Muslim share of the vote (17.4%) is unlikely to be decisive. Rantzen and UKIP candidate (if one stands) will eat away at Hussain’s support.
20/1 on the LDs is an attractive price. If OGH’s knowledge of the constituency suggests a strong local party and a good campaign it may be worth a small punt.
Esther is looking quite glam in the snowy, Dr Zhivago-style picture at the top of this thread.
It’s difficult to believe that, come the General Election, she will be within just a few weeks of her 70th birthday.
If we’re going to have a whacky / non-mainstream candidate winning in one seat please can it be Buckingham?
(I’m not anti Bercow but think that Farage in the HoC would be a delight - esp at PMQ).
Some new markets on Betfair. I just despair of people who ask for new markets without being willing to make a book. Perhaps they are waiting on muggins here.
Muggins here has priced up ‘PM/Government Double’. This has options like ‘Cameron Overall Majority’ and ‘Brown Minority’.
It is situated below ‘Party Leaders’.
23 Patrick - no chance in my view, but available at 4/1 with Paddy Power for those who wish to throw their money away.
25 I agree Farage has no chance at all - but still it would be fun.
9 - Cheers Peter, but did you miss the 10/3?
Further proof that we need a twitter group for the punters on here.
On Topic.
I’ve just had a tenner on the Lib Dem at 20s for three reasons.
1.Because if Mike is going to be insufferable and it comes in I don’t want to feel left out.
2.Because its a three way, not a four way as Esther Rantzen should be the 20/1 shot and the Lib Dem 6/1.
I doubt she’ll get more than 2000 votes.
3.It will be a media bunfight, but only party down to the presence of Rantzen, I’d expect Anjem Choudary the EDL and the BNP to descend on this seat.
Perhaps Esther could appear with Anjem and some penis shaped vegetables.
A few of the posters have suggested that Mike is hinting at Muslim Voters being unprepared to vote for a candidate who is Jewish.
I’ve never seen any evidence for that directly although fringe groups operating in Rochdale and Bethnal Green may have had a decisive effect in the last election.
On the point of the Lib Dems being 100% white, I thought they may at least have shortlisted a non white candidate in Cambridge.
On a betting note, the best long shot in a four way is still the Tory in Birmingham Hall Green even at the reduced price of 14/1
21-It might be a bellweather seat, but it’s far more ethnic than your average seat. The implication is that it will soon stop being a bellweather seat soon, not sure if in 2010 though.
10-Has happened already in Birmingham at local elections. O/T- why are Muslim race based parties less offensive than white race based parties (eg BNP).
24 - This ones for you, URW.
Puts the duck houses into perspective.
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2010/01/20/hamas-pm-haniya-hamas-military-wing-commander-al-jabari-clash-over-distribution-of-mp-galloways-aid-funds/
The actual truth behind that tiny seasonal fall in unemployment.
Brown constantly cheered this at PMQ but as good as any fall is sadly with Labour what you see on the surface is not what you actually have. Cooper admitted as such afterwards when she forecast the numbers to rise so even she does not believe these figures.
Unemployment will now play a huge part in the election when it comes and this governments record is poor (when you look behind the smoke and mirrors of course). The true figure is more like 5 to 6 million as I previously said. Add the people on non courses and its anyone guess.
————————–
The number of people classed as “economically inactive” rose to a record high of 8.05 million in the three months to November.
A rise in the number of students not seeking work reached a record high of 2.24 million.
Economic inactivity has hit a record high and there are 2.3 million people out there, out of work and who want a job, but aren’t included in the unemployment figures.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/unemployment+drops+for+first+time+in+18+months/3509152
FPT - ChristinaD.
You ask us to look what has happened since the Married Tax allowance was abolished (after being downgraded by Clarke and Lamont)
Well this is what happened.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=170
Divorce has been falling.
It rose however in the 70’s eighties and nineties while the tax allowance for married couples was in place, suggesting at best, no correlation.
8 million+ on benefits? Shit! More than I thought. No wonder we’re broke. Do you have source for that number by the way?
I guess the really ugly gorilla in the corner on deficit / debt / public spending is the social security budget.
Has Dave said anything about it that anyone can recall?
Are Al-Beeb actually the Conservatives fifth column…?
MacStalin by name, Stalinist by nature. Typical NorthernEstateParish hoon
Pro rata I wonder in liught of hidden unemplymnet for the great unwashed would really be. what glasgow east really is in terms of people working or not would scare everyone. no wonder labour starts with a 60% vote of benefit claimers locked in.
peter, i was aware that there were local muslim candidates but they are not under a national umbrela which would give them credibility. Or have things changed?
I find all racially based parties offensive, of all colours.
However, I think that circumstances dictate that people look for solutions so that their own culture is given a higher priority than would otherwise be the case in this multicultural mess that has been created.
27 - I’ve long been a fan of the Tory long shot chances in Birmingham Hall Green, glad to have support on this.
If Luton South is a four way marginal, the Lib Dems will need to increase their support from third place to win - 22.5% is less than a quarter of the vote. I do not see the mechanism by which they would do so: how are the Lib Dems going to peel off Labour votes while the second-placed Tories fail to do so? For our host to be right, Iraq would need to be vote-changing for the Lib Dems, one election on. My money is staying in my pocket on this bet, even at 20/1.
Pro rata I wonder in light of hidden unemploymnet for the great unwashed would really be. What glasgow east really is in terms of people working or not would scare everyone. No wonder labour starts with a 60% vote of benefit claimers locked in.
Peter, I was aware that there were local muslim candidates but they are not under a national umbrela which would give them credibility. Or have things changed?
I find all racially based parties offensive, of all colours.
However, I think that circumstances dictate that people look for solutions so that their own culture is given a higher priority than would otherwise be the case in this multicultural mess that has been created.
“9 - Cheers Peter, but did you miss the 10/3?
Further proof that we need a twitter group for the punters on here.”
My place operates on several different levels, tim. The Bronze forum is just a shell and almost totally worthless but that is the starting point for any aspirant who wants to join Gold.
My job is to keep people out rather than let them in as I firmly believe that small is beautiful.
Politics on the ubf is very small but very focussed. It is nonetheless a dangerous forum to post tips because of a few very large predators.
Almost everything tipped shortens quickly and dramatically but on the other hand there is a Private Message facility for Gold and Silver Members.
Political ‘chat’ is severely limited and there are more numbers than words in a lot of the posts. I doubt it would have much appeal to most of the posters on here but maybe for a handful or more it could be worth a visit.
I think by now you know who my favourites are and they would be fast-tracked. For the rest they would have to prove themselves in Bronze.
#37, by URW January 21st, 2010 at 7:29 am
…I firmly believe that small is beautiful….
I think by now you know who my favourites are….
Mate,
We know who you are (and how abusively rude you can be on Sundays) so get over yourself. If your site was of any interest then OGH would link it.
Why don’t you and ‘Tupac go and get a room? [PS: I still respect your betting acumen, Inshallah!
]
Fluffy Thoughts @ 38. How on earth can I get over myself when I am so great ?
Apart from all the techy stuff, I created single-handedly the best BETTING Forum in the world.
Now there are forums (like pb.com) more focussed, but nowhere exists more informed betting opinion on everything from Darts to Big Brother.
Our Cricket Section alone is probably worth £1000 per annum just to have a peep. Some of the threads on Soccer are worth more.
Labour is wrong about recession, says HSBC chief Mike Geoghegan
Mr Geoghegan’s attack came on a day when official figures indicated widespread nerves in the economy, with an increase in the number of school leavers going to college rather than seeking a job. The number of “economically inactive” people reached a record 8.04 million.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6996000.ece
A split has emerged between Alex Salmond and his finance minister over the need to “face up to reality” and cut public spending in Scotland
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7038128/SNP-ministers-split-over-spending-cuts.html
37 - I’d be interested, what do I do?
40 - Scott.
We’ve had the doomsters on the FTSE, Unemployment levels, Currency and House Prices all make asses of themselves over the last twelve months.
But very profitably, so thank you.
#39, by URW January 21st, 2010 at 7:47 am
Our Cricket Section alone is probably worth £1000 per annum just to have a peep.
:gulps:
:seeks-a-dark-place-to-hide:
:still-larfs’-at-’Tupac:
tim- you go over to ‘ultimate betting forum’ and follow the guidelines.
30 re fiddling the unemployment figures (Batch File)
“Economic inactivity has hit a record high and there are 2.3 million people out there, out of work and who want a job, but aren’t included in the unemployment figures.”
Which is why it is pointless to fiddle the figures: these people know they are out of work. It’s the economy, but the personal circumstances of each voter: it is not suggested voters check the FT headlines on the way to the polling station.
Patrick @ 32: economically inactive does not mean on benefits, it means people who are not counted in the (un)employment figures.
By the way the best place for searching for all the prices for cmonsituencies is at http://www.oddschecker.com in the politics area obviously.
I went to the ultmate betting forum and tried to register. No surprises that it would not let me in.
I also notice that it uses the same software as Key Publishing. Nothing to see here; please move along….
45 Fair dinkum.
Actually to be pedantic I would imagine that those on benefits are a subset of those who are inactive.
From the deficit point of view its the benefits group that matters.
The inactive but not on benefits group are not costing us money but would seem to me to represent a rather tragic waste of talent and opportunity for millions - presumable many of them young, staying at home and just killing time and farting their lives away.
47 re benefits (Patrick)
Probably a fair number of people in jobs are on benefits too, especially if you count child benefits and tax credits.
48 I can feel a Venn diagram coming!
13. “why are most of the Downfall spoofs based on the same clip”
Because it’s a perfect portrayal of that feeling which we all have sometimes of just wanting to have a spectacular rant at the vicissitude of fate, combined with the knowledge that such ranting is completely ineffective.
That it’s Hitler in the shot adds doubly to the comedy value. Even when he appeared sane(ish), in the 1930s, he was parodied for his overblown theatrics so it looks like a parody of a parody. And of course, he was the man who wanted to rule the world and killed millions in the attempt to do so, so to see him reduced to utter impotence has a satisfying feeling of nemesis - and by extension, that humiliation can be reheaped upon him as a proxy for normal folks’ everyday irritations.
So whereas Joe Bloggs whining about shrink-wrapping just looks a bit sad, getting Hitler to do it belittles him by contrasting the mundaneness of the complaint against the scope of his original vision, is made acceptable by the evilness of that vision and yet taps into the frustration that everyone has felt and which is acted so authentically and without restraint in the scene. Normal, sane, people don’t usually let restraint go to such an extent much as we’d like sometimes to. And that’s the final, subtle, point: we know where that lack of restraint lead, so by allowing Hilter to go off on one on our behalf while we don’t, it reinforces the mental and moral division between him and us.
12, Peter - absolutely right, and I think it’s an attack vector for the other candidates (especially the Tories) - the candidate should be asking her repeatedly why she’s not standing against a Cabinet minister with tricky claims like, say, Shaun Woodward, who is *actually* standing? Oh, it wouldn’t be anything to do with the fact that they’ve been friends and colleagues for decades would it?
Rantzen simply isn’t convincing on this point, although I think the publicity will mean that she’s unlikely to lose her deposit, and could get the most ‘respectable’ fourth place outside Scotland and Wales (actually the Lib Dems in Brighton Pavilion or Wyre Forest will presumably take that honour, but she’ll get far more votes than 99.99% of candidates coming fourth).
A great tip from Mike. We have to expect a dramatic fall in the Labour vote - probably by half. Moran will have killed off Labour in the area for years and any floating activists will switch to saving Luton North. Moran has also gone MIA and is neglecting constituency work.
Whilst I do feel that the Conservatives are odds on, there is always a chance that Esther and UKIP will pull away enough votes to keep the Conservatives under 30%, thus allowing the LDs with the muslim 20% vote, to sneak through.
51 - Respect in Hall Green will get the largst fourth place vote.
52 - On Luton South, I’ll enjoy the irony of Sean Fear campaigning for a One Nation, TRG, Pro Climate Change Candidate.
Does anyone know where I can apply for this free-cash…?
[Cricket]
Anything better then 5/1-on is fine by me*.
* Not a reason for Farmer ‘Tupac to throw another £50 evens post into the quagmire of his contributions to this site.
On topic, I really don’t see Rantzen as having a hope. JohnLoony puts it well: she’ll do well to come fourth.
Outsiders only really stand a chance if they have some issue to give their campaign relevance and they can get substantial media coverage in order to persuade the public that they’re not a wasted vote, preferably with the tacit backing of one or more established parties - or - they are the result of a split within a dominant local organisation and are on the side the public overwhelmingly backs. Rantzen is neither.
The question is how her presence, and that of other fringe candidates who might also be attracted to the seat, impacts on the biggers players.
I don’t know Luton at all well but if it’s anything like Bradford, the shifts in the muslim vote that took place in 2003 have largely unwound (though not wholly and in pockets, not at all). It’s worth noting that those movements were about Iraq, not Afghanistan, and the withdrawal has removed the intensity from the subject. It’s not gone entirely but Chilcot is too esoteric an issue to play strongly.
Even so, I’d anticipate Luton South being a Lab/Con marginal when it comes to the vote, with the Lib Dems some way back in third and Rantzen no better than a distant fourth. If several other fringe candidates stand, she may well end up lower still.
That said, is 20/1 value for the Lib Dems? Perhaps. Mike knows the seat and the Lib Dems far better than I do. It’s not one, however, I’ll be staking any money on.
Interesting to note the DT’s “General election 2010 editor’s choice.”
1. Cameron’s Tories are a one-man band - “Labour’s show of resilience since the coup plot raises questions about David Cameron’s team, says Simon Heffer.”
2. The Tories’ tax plans are unravelling
3. Middle-class voters deserve better
4. Why tax cuts are bound to favour the rich
5. David Cameron’s problem with women
Morning all and wasted money as it is a sure fire Tory gain.
I look forward to seeing La Rantzan’s face when in front of a TV news camera a voter asks her what her opinion is on women who have 8 year affairs with and get pregnant by the husband of one of their closest friends.
52. The economic news is moving fast. China is halting bank lending to stop speculation. Greece is approaching default, and the rest of the EU don’t want to bail her out. The Euro has fallen quite a chunk yesterday on the strength of it (1.44 to 1.40 vs US$) in a single day.
The stocks bear market ‘QE’ rally is stalling, interest rates are nudging up with inflation, and stocks could easily slip back into bear again. If they do, that will chalk ten more points off Labour, as the growth phase which Britain missed out on, descends back into depression.
We will be back to 20% Conservative leads.
Britain’s 2009 total government spending at around £800 billion (less unexplained £185 billion ‘accounting adjustments’ to allegedly £615 billion) against likely government revenues of £450 billion, could actually worsen!
How about government revenues at $370 billion in 2010, down from £610 billion in 2008?
It seems like a moment of crisis on all fronts. If this diagnosis is right, Brown has just been through the easy phase!!!!
And the Conservatives will win power into the biggest financial crisis of all time.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/01/euro-fall-says-greece-is-in-big-trouble.html
Love the idea of a market on the highest scoring 4th place in England. Got to be at least 10% I would think.
52 re Luton Labour vote halved (TC)
Since Moran is not standing, there is no reason to expect any personal animosity against her to spill over to the new candidate.
OGH is right that Esther is distorting the market, but surely any value she creates is most likely to lie with either Labour or the Conservatives. 20/1 LibDems is great as a trading bet, especially once the market corrects and becomes liquid on Betfair nearer polling day.
58: “And the Conservatives will win power into the biggest financial crisis of all time”
But I thought it was all fixed. The opinion polls were being manipulated to prepare us for a ’surprise’ election result with Labour holding on thanks to rigged elections.
That’s what you’ve been forecasting for weeks, if not months, now
I was pretty sceptical to begin with (and still am) but this thread has made me think there is something in it. If Labour really is in freefall, the Lib Dems might get tactical votes from Labour voters to keep the Tories out!
Good Morning Mike Smithson Love Bombing Owen Coyle Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Luton South is my neighbouring constituency and I’ve tried to advise punters that ‘Our Esther’ is carving a huge chunk of support out of the usual suspects and her odds represent outstanding value.
She’s all over the local media like a rash, the local Tory PPC is whining like a little girl about her candidature, the local Labour party is a bad smell over the whole campaign and the soft Lib Dem vote is up for grabs. I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Lib Dems throw their weight behind her as in Wyre Valley in 01/05.
You can bet you bottom dollar that Esther will pull in every media favour and willing celebrity to beef up her campaign and likewise the media will enjoy her novelty/plague on all your houses run for parliament.
Two way marginal between Sean Fear’s local mob and ‘Our Esther’
Look out for those flashing chompers on election night !!
Oh dear, Baroness Kinnock admits the government has REDUCED its spending on anti-terrorism measures in Pakistan.
Labour = soft on terror and crime, soft on the causes of terror and crime
57
I can’t wait for some voter in Richmond to ask Zac about his personal life either.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-406989/Is-womanising-Zac-Goldsmiths-genes.html
Shame your ol’ friend Nicholas Fairburn isn’t around to give his opinion of such things.
63, ugh. I hope Rantzen crashes and burns. Parliament doesn’t need a vacuous celebrity.
59 - Salma Yaqoob in Hall Green will get 18-20%
57 - I dread to think what your views on Boris and Petronella are.
58. Cobblers. The reality is that the fall in unemployment was a big surprise and a major boost to the government. By no means do I think it will be decisive but I think economic indicators will continue to improve and (more slowly), Labour’s share of the vote in opinion polls.
Incidentally, there is a good graph on the Betfair site which shows the perception on number of Tory seats which I think bears this out - large majority becoming less popular; small majority becoming more popular.
66 MD. Not too sure ‘Our Esther’ is a “vacuous celebrity”. She has solid campaigning achievements not least Childline.
66 Coldstone Zac is not standing on a ticket of “Trust me I know all about trust” which is how La Rantzan is portraying herself. She should stick to uncovering dodgy builders.
70, aye. She’s also a shameless self-publicist and was on I’m A Celebrity, Give Me Some Publicity much more recently.
57
On to more serious things, (If elected I will press for legislation to ensure that all dogs can say the word sausages, says ER) only one or two gains in Scotland?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7038207/Dont-endanger-Union-if-David-Cameron-wins-election-Labour-warned.html?
Fan the flames of nationalism, hardly need to, if Cameron gets elected, a conflagration will break out.
Have you transferred all of your money out of Scotland yet?
64 - I’ve noticed that the Tory comprehensively went to a local comprehensive school.
In fact so comprehensively has this fact been covered its beyond comprehension why all Tories who went to comprehensive schools don’t cover the subject more comprehensively on their comprehensive websites.
67 - Morris Dancer, you’re dead wrong. Esther Rantzen has done more to improve British law and public life than pretty much any MP. The only thing I wonder is why she wants to be an MP, given her outstanding record of public service.
71 - Don’t you mean “Trussed me, I know about Trussed”
71 Easterross. Frightened of the competition ?!?
72 MD. And politicians aren’t “shamless self publicists”?
71
Quite right! Zac is standing on a policy of, ‘Its ok to sabotage power stations’
Goldsmith, the former editor of The Ecologist magazine who resigned last year to advise the Tory party and become prospective parliamentary candidate for Richmond west, told the jury at Maidstone crown court that direct action could be justified. “Legalities aside, I suppose if a crime is intended to prevent much larger crimes, I think then a lot of people would consider that as justified,” he said.
Breaking the law is ok, I’m sure you agree with that?
Can’t wait for him to urge the sabotaging of nuclear power stations.
77, her QT appearance was appalling. She was patronising as hell and arrogant with it. Founding a charity’s obviously a good thing but that doesn’t mean you get to sail into the Commons with the gust of public gratitude from decades ago. I think she’s more interested in her own profile than serving the public.
Why is she standing in Luton when she has no connection at all to the place? She’s just hoping to ride the expenses bandwagon and get an easy seat.
75, maybe she did, years and decades ago. I’m too young to remember. It’s not particular praise though, given the shower we’ve had for the last 13 years.
77 Jack not at all. I look forward to seeing the Tory candidate win.
73 Coldstone why? Everyone expects a Tory government to lead to riots in Scotland. Let’s wait and see what happens shall we. right off to work. TTFN
“Companies offering cash for gold jewellery in a recent flurry of TV adverts are paying a fraction of the items’ true worth.
The firms, which have latched on to increases in the price of gold, are ’shockingly bad value’, according to consumer group Which?”
How many envelopes do you need for 400 tons of gold ?
74 tim, don’t you think it might be a bit early in the day to start drinking?
I’ll pay any £50 to charity if any Tory poster can explain where, when, how much and to whom the Conservatives Marriage Tax break would be paid in the following two test cases.
In 1968 Rantzen began an affair with Desmond Wilcox, who was her Department Head (boss, essentially) and was married to her friend Patsy.[7] After several years they decided to live together, and informed BBC management of their relationship.[8] Management’s solution was to move the entire production team of That’s Life! out of Wilcox’s department. What they didn’t consider was that the new arrangement meant that Rantzen and Patsy were now working in the same department, causing both women concern.[8] Patsy Wilcox always refused to divorce her husband, but agreed when Rantzen became pregnant.[9] After Rantzen and Wilcox married in December 1977,[10] BBC management moved her back into his department, General Features.
Born at Westminster Hospital in London, Goldsmith is the middle child of Sir James Goldsmith and his third wife, Lady Annabel Vane-Tempest-Stewart. His parents were both married to other people when he was born,[6] but in 1978, they married each other to legitimize their children.[7] Goldsmith was raised at Ormeley Lodge in Ham with his siblings, Jemima and Ben, a businessman. He has five paternal half-siblings,[8] and is also half-brother to Robin and India Jane Birley, his mother’s children from her first marriage to Mark Birley.[9] His father, who was known to maintain polyamorous relationships,[6] moved to New York in 1981 with his French girlfriend and was henceforth a rare presence in Goldsmith’s childhood.[3]
Thought Esher Rantzen was a big Conservative supporter rememember her and her late husband attending a Conservative election rally in York when Major attended in 92.
20 - Esther Rantzen seems to be one of those peculiar people who are very popular but no-one likes.
79 MD. You clearly dislike ‘Our Esther’. I simply caution against a knee-jerk reaction when putting your brass down.
Also many candidates don’t have local constituency connections …. including some Conservatives !!
80 Easterross. Don’t be too triumphalist about an easy Tory win in Luton South.
Sky News Reporting
Government borrowed 16.7 Billion pounds in December.
Actually slightly lower than expected apparently.
Well thats a relief only another 17 billion added to the overall tally. We should be back to normal in about Oooo say 2050
Some of us tim went to Comprehensives that were stuffed full of leftie teachers - and that is the reason why many of us are Tories. What sort of minor Public School did you go to Timothy?
typo 15.7 million
85. I’d be torn between Rantzen and Moran if they were the only two standing.
Morning all.
Jack W thinks La Rantzen will do well; some others don’t. Fair enough. But what I don’t quite understand is why Mike thinks her candidature will benefit the LibDems. I would have thought that her support will come from all other parties and from people who might not vote at all. In particular, former LibDem voters (who aren’t ALL Muslims!), looking for an alternative non-Tory, non-Labour candidate, could well choose her. Disaffected Labour voters who don’t want to vote Tory likewise.
I don’t claim Mike’s local knowledge, but from the outside this looks a likely Tory win with a hard-to-quantify chance that La Rantzen will pull off a surprise, simply through name recognition.
OT: Agree with many of the posters here on Ester’s chances. Anyone know the latest on another egotistical bandwaggoner - Fatty Heffer? Didn’t he threaten th epeople of Saffron Walden with standing. He must be one of the few people in the country less appealing electorally than Gordon Brown!
86, I’m not betting on the result, just stating my dislike of Rantzen.
There’s a difference between not having many constituency connections and suddenly deciding you love an area when you seek to exploit the expenses disgrace to get yourself into Parliament.
Funnily enough tim, a lot of us don’t need to hide our background, unlike people like Harman and Balls, trying so hard to keep themselves hidden,
Is Lady Kinnock letting the cat out of the bag on Foreign Office cuts because a) She’s been instructed to answer questions in a honest and straightforward way
b) She’s on the Mandelson wing of the party & believes it will benefit Labour if it seen to be tackling the budget defecit
c) She was appointed in a rushed manner because Brown desperately needed a woman to replace Caroline Flint after her charges of sexism, is politically totally out of her depth & was unable to see that cutting the anti-terrorist in Pakistan might just be interesting news….
95.c)*anti terrorist budget
9 PfP, 27 tim - On the Paddy Power ‘end of year unemployment’ market, I’m unclear as to whether it will be settled on the the figures that have just been released (which related to the three months to end of November) or the next lot. It shouldn’t make any difference the result.
94: Yes it always amazes me the hypocracy of those two. Not that they should be privately educated and Labour - I don’t have a problem with that - but more that they are privately educated and attack Cameron for his priveleged background! And no one seems to have cottoned on to the irony of a Labour Sec of state for Schools/Education (Balls) being privately educated at Nottingham’s top fee paying school. Then today we have Harman, the neice of an Earl lecturing everyone about class - as if she would know! Bloody hypocrites of the first order!! Rant over!
Re Luton South , the local election results in 2007 for the wards making up this constituency were
LibDem 8931
Labour 8104
Conser 5631
Others 5016
Agreed this was pre expenses and on those results you would normally forecast a Labour hold . Certainly does not look anything like the nailed on Conservative gain that some have called it .
95-Oooohhh Caroline Flint…
I had forgotten about the vixen.
93 MD. You seem to hold a very narrow view on who may stand in a constituency. The fact is that many PPC’s of all parties have no connection to their seat and suddenly find a love for the seat and then heck take advantage of weaknesses in their opponents cause !!
In the final analysis it’s up to the voters to decide the importance of a local candidate and usually at general elections they don’t care too much at all.
As for Luton South it appears that ‘Our Esther’ has been warmly welcomed as a breath of fresh air amid the rotted corpse of Luton South politics, whether it is enough for a spectacular win is another matter …. but the odds look tasty !!
60. A ‘best fourth place (England only)’ market would be very interesting. Norwich South ought to be a runner in addition to those already mentioned.
I once finished fourth in a local election despite polling about 17%!
98 – The staggering hypocrisy of Harman and Balls is a lttle breath taking.
At least the South Luton candidate Nigel Huddleston, is very much a ‘working-class Tory, he was raised in the Lincoln suburb of North Hykeham where his father worked for more than 40 years in the local castings factory until his retirement, and his mother still works on the checkouts at the local ASDA store.
Like his brother and his sister, Huddleston attended the local Robert Pattinson Comprehensive School where he became a keen rugby player and athlete – representing Lincolnshire in Cross Country, 400metres and 1500metres in national competitions. After completing his ‘A’ Levels in 1989 Nigel became the first person in his family to go to University, and was the first person from his school to go to Oxford.
Not sure if that makes him ‘local’ though - wtf is ‘North Hykeham’ .?
Batch file you were right with “billions”. Our debt is now 61.7% of GDP (ignoring all the dodgy off balance sheet stuff of course. Total debt is now £870 billion which is £136 billion MORE than a year ago. This means that almost 19% of our total debt which has been built up over 300 years has been run up by Brown and Darling in the last 12 months alone.
No more boom and bust my arse.
But like unemployment the tide has been turned.Gordon has achieved what he said he would.
We are saved.
How did we ever doubt him.
He is the messiah.
All praise be to Gord.
A funny story about Rantzen:
My mother-in-law’s best friend got a job at the BBC (this was maybe in the 70s, not sure exactly) and ended up inheriting Esther Rantzen’s old desk. Apprently it had several dozen bits of chewing gum stuck underneath it - disgusting! Those teeth could probably get through several pieces at once I guess…
I don’t understand why she is still standing now Moran has gone. Would Bell have stood in Tatton if hamilton had withdrawn? I doubt it.
Crime stats good for Labour - shame no one believes them much.
The recovery is based on ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/7039183/Skipton-slaps-extra-2000-on-mortgage-bills.html
“Tens of thousands of homeowners are facing an extra £2,000 interest on their m0rtg@ges every year after Skipton Building Society tore up its contract with customers, blaming the “exceptional circumstances” caused by the credit crunch. ”
“Some households may have taken advantage of the lower m0rtg@ge payments to spend their money on other things. They may have to change their lifestyle now,” said Ray Boulger of broker John Charcol.
A shame that there is little danger of Rantzen succumbing to hypothermia - what a charmless insincere evil witch that woman is..
106-It has started ..the fixing of all data up to the election.
Do not believe anything that comes out from central govt between now and then .
An ‘equation’ that the tabloids are bound to draw on tomorrow..
Stomach Stapling for Fatties + Laptops for Chavs = Cuts in Pakistan Counterterrorism
102
Sleaford and North Hykeham is/was one of my favourtite constituency names, with which Lincolnshire is particularly blessed now (and in the past)
South Holland and the Deepings
Holland with Boston
Stamford and Spalding
Sleaford and North Hykeham (MP is Douglas “moat” Hogg IIRC!)
I love names of constituencies where you have no clue where they are, with no reference to local towns or counties in the names.
Erewash
Waveney
Castle Point
There are others
Or another connection..
Extra cash for Chinooks = Less cash for fighting Afghan drug growers.
This stuff could be ugly for the party in power.
Though it goes without saying that the Tories would be as bad..
I hope Rantzen loses her deposit. If self-aggrandizing celebrity airheads are the ‘answer’ to our problems then we may as well switch off the lights now.
106 - Funny how the people who were wrong on the FTSE,House Prices and currency disbelieve the Unemployment NHS and Crime figures.
Otherwise they’d be wrong on all six.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8472007.stm
110 - Bassetlaw is another one.
Should be fun
The court of appeal today ordered BSkyB to sell down its 17.9% stake in ITV.
Today the three court of appeal judges, Lord Justice Rix, Lord Justice Lloyd and Mr Justice McKay gave their judgment: “Sky’s appeal on competition issues is dismissed, so the direction that it must reduce its shareholding to less than 7.5% will stand,” they said.
In the fourth ruling since Sky acquired the shareholding in November 2006, the court of appeal has told the satellite broadcaster it must sell the stake down to less than 7.5%, leaving the broadcaster facing a potential loss of £500m.
The court of appeal also denied BSkyB permission to appeal to the supreme court on a potential alternative remedy.
Sky now has 28 days to apply directly to the supreme court.
The company, which was not considered likely to win the appeal, is understood to have already held talks with a number of potential buyers
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/21/bskyb-itv-court-of-appeal
I don’t mind Ester - I associate her with Childline and That’s Life. Would I vote for her, never in a month of Sundays.
I think she’ll scrape in name recognition votes and keep her deposit. Her media friends will love her.
And I never knew she was Jewish - or how she met Desmond Wilcox - what a sheltered life I’ve had.
115 - Big Rup will be not amused!
Well put runnymede !!
Although having just seen a clip of the National TV Awards, I have seen a slight vision of how Parliament could look in just 20-30 yrs..
Urgent question/statement in HoC at 11 about terror cuts
What a pleasant surprise - a personal note from Mr Cameron’s office in response to my email complaining about his views on AGW.
It took three weeks, but hey - I’m sure they had a lot to get through
Victims of shooting at twenty year low.
Difficult to see how that was fiddled, but I’m sure someone will be along to tell us how.
Still no Ladbrokes constituency market - have Ladbrokes pulled out of this or is their software still not working? OT - I managed to get the princely sum of £5.60 on the LDs at 18/1 for Luton South with william Hill this morning.
Yuck. Alastair Campbell telling us how war propoganda should be managed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/jan/21/alastair-campbell-afghanistan-media-strategy
110, 114 - poetic constituency names: I’ve always been rather fond of another Lincolnshire one, Great Grimsby, which I feel should come with an exclamation mark attached.
I also rather like Amber Valley, The Wrekin, Makerfield and Sheffield Brightside, sadly none of which are as nice as they sound.
121 - That looks like great news.
I’m baffled by the hatred of Rantzen. Her work for Childline alone makes her alright by me.
Sure, she could probably find a more worthy cause now Moron is standing down but doesn’t it occur to some people that a large number of the Luton residents she met asked her to stay and fight for the seat?
Her record and profile as a campaigner will make her a more effective MP than most of the fresh lobby fodder Cameron is going to be swamped by.
125 - Hope I heard it correctly!
I’ve got a plan to get us back to the record crime heights of the Eighties
Tory adviser points to £75bn cuts
Let Michael Forsyth and John Redwood loose on the economy.
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/economy-and-finance/tory-adviser-points-to-75bn-cuts-$1354781.htm
125. So we should expect the support of the Sun for her self-indulgent campaign, then?
This looks interesting
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8470797.stm
“Web founder Sir Tim Berners-Lee has unveiled his latest venture for the UK government, which offers the public better access to official data.
A new website, data.gov.uk, will offer reams of public sector data, ranging from traffic statistics to crime figures, for private or commercial use.
The target is to kickstart a new wave of services that find novel ways to make use of the information. “
126 - No difference from what Mandy and St Vince have called for, in fact I believe they talked about £80bn in cuts.
126 Still - Mandy announced the need to cut by £80bn two weeks ago
http://order-order.com/2010/01/21/forsyth-inching-tories-towards-reality/
131. No no - Conservatives do “cuts”, LDs and Labour do “savings”.
Mandy wants £80Bn of nice fluffy Labour savings.
121. I have to back Tim on this one. You can point to the problems with the BCS (the age cutoffs, more than five offences, etc) and acknowledge the limitations that brings. But it’s wrong to say they’re fiddled or wrong just because it clashes with your view of the world.
126. Before Liam Byrne starts spinning about cruel Tory cuts he would do well to remember that Lord Mandelson said it was ‘vital’ to reduce the deficit by some £80 billion in a speech two weeks ago. Mandelson is still outflanking the Tories…
http://order-order.com/2010/01/21/forsyth-inching-tories-towards-reality/
Anyone else listening to R5 about assisted suicide? I’ve been in floods.
Margo McDonald made a great speech about it.
I’m of a generation that really isn’t familiar with Esther Rantzen. It wasn’t all that long ago I thought she was married to Arthur Ransome. Presumably she brings back a rush of memories for older posters though?
135 - Sausages..!
“Before Liam Byrne starts spinning about cruel Tory cuts he would do well to remember that Lord Mandelson said it was ‘vital’ to reduce the deficit by some £80 billion in a speech two weeks ago”
Oh dear. I do believe that, in internet circles, Tim has been pwn8d.
On the subject of constituency names that have no relation to the town, I’m surprised there’s been no mention of Broxtowe. Where is he today?
132 I think the point is that 80% of the population think that government figures are either fiddled, manipulated to suit or misrepresented by politicians and the media. The knife-crime fuss made a big impact on trust.
It’ll take a long time for credibility to be restored.
I’m sure we can all share with HMG the good news that the economic indicators are coming good and unemployment is on its way down.
OT. For those wanting to make some money on the Bafta’s ‘An Education’is a good place to start. ‘Best Actress’ almost certainly ‘best script’ likewise and any odds better than evens are worth taking on ‘best film’.
Brown’s policies destroying economic freedom
19 January 2010
UK loses top-ten ranking in respected global index
http://www.iea.org.uk/record.jsp?type=release&ID=171
Professor Philip Booth, Editorial and Programme Director at the Institute of Economics Affairs commented:
“This year’s index produces unsurprising but very disappointing news. The rise in government spending is part of Gordon Brown’s long-term policy agenda and is not just crash related. This government has steadily been eroding economic freedom for sometime and there is a real danger of freefall.”
129. You need to look at those figures from the point of view of a Guardian reading moonbat. When the Tories say £75 billion that is an evil Tory cut, when Labour says £80 billion that is a prudent efficiency saving by the brilliant Labour government led by the brilliant PM Gordon Brown who has done such a brilliant job that we are only borrowing a mere £6,000 a second.
130/131/133/137 - Mandelsons figure is for a reduction in the deficit, some tax rises some spending cuts and some growth in revenue.
Forsyth is urging £75 Billion in Spending cuts alone, per annum.
Sad that none of you spotted the obvious there.
132 - Corporeal.
The Tories on here only beleive crime stats in London, since Boris became Mayor.
138 - That is the real point here, does anybody think the vast majority of the public buy the claim that crime is down over 40% since Labour came to power. Would be an interesting polling question.
Poetic names - there’s been no mention of Broxtowe yet. I wonder where he is?
BREAKING NEWS:
Shadow chancellor George Osborne ordered to repay £1,666 in expenses breach
Ear defenders at the ready for the BBC howling.
145, hehe, I don’t doubt this will be enormous news in leftyland. How much was Brown ordered to repay?
145. Does that make him a fool or a knave?
I think we need to know.
147. Over £12,000. So Brown is seven times more wicked than Osborne.
146 - Aunty has the news already, and no doubt will cover it on the lunch-time news.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8466921.stm
Is Ms Rantzen still advocating the view that certain people should be imprisoned for ‘child abuse’ and that there’s no need for a trial cos the police ‘know who they are’?
tim it’s easy. If the criminals’ method of choice is stabbing rather than shooting then you peddle the gun figures for all your worth and hope no-one notices the knife ones. No fiddling or untruths required but still dishonest, misleading and so new Labour.
127 - I am not the official ‘voice of The Sun’ you know. I come on here as a private individual.
Though comments like that mean I will probably have to start posting anonymously, which I have never really wanted to do but anyone open about who they are seems to be at a distinct disadvantage on here at the moment.
153 Congratulations on your engagement - I missed that - and what a lovely way to do it!
149 -
152 - Last I heard knife crime was down too, I’m sure I heard Boris say so.
127. An odd use of ’self indulgent’. Is this as opposed to the altruistic Tory candidates who are standing for the good of the nation?
How about the Sun Says ‘Osborne’s figures don’t add up-and that’s just his mortgage!’
Can’t believe people are still going on about Rantzen. If she does stand she will bomb. None of the parties will stand aside and I’ll be astonished if she gets near 10%. It wil be Lab or Tory with the LDs in a good third. I think the result will be close I think so maybe Rantzen will have an effect, but then UKIP and BNP might stand as well.
In more important news the government is still borrowing eyewatering amounts of money.
142. We know the Government’s tax rises, Gordon has said, 50p top rate and 1p on National Insurance, so how much of th £80bn do you think will come from spending cuts tim and what is the limit before we descend into the horrors you depict?
LATEST:
Lloyds Banking Group to cut another 400 jobs, the Unite union says
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/14000-knife-victims-a-year-860857.html
Perhaps someone will check if hospital admissions for gun shot wounds are at a 20 year low like the government stats.
I have just found out Ladbrokes are still offering constituency bets on the telephone and in particular Luton South is quoted at 16/1 for the LDs.
161 If a gun-shooting victim dies at the scene - do they count as an admission?
Lyon’s report says Osborne’s breaches were not “major ones, were not intentional and did not provide Mr Osborne with any significant financial benefit.” He will not have to give an apology to the House.
154 - Many thanks!
139. Roger
and unemployment is on its way down.
It’s a pity that Yvette Cooper cautioned against optimism as she expects unemployment to rise again and added to that long term unemployment is up, full-time job availability is down and total employment is down.
There aint much to be optimistic about if you ask me. Milions of people are suffering because of Labour’s profligacy and incompetence.
161. I doubt the 50p top rate will raise any money.
Will be cancelled in April 2011 as it is revenue negative.
I wonder if Mrs Kinnock is wearing a Nokia-proof vest today?
160-No that has got to be wrong.
Gordon has told us how the tide of unemployment has been stemmed.
You are wrong i tell you
According to Guido:
“Lyon’s report says Osborne’s breaches were not “major ones, were not intentional and did not provide Mr Osborne with any significant financial benefit.” He will not have to give an apology to the House.”
Bad luck, tim. It looks as though they have rejected the substance of the original complaint, as I predicted when the complaint was lodged.
Bryant making urgent statement on exchange rate movements
168.
See also
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/01/both_accident_and_design.html
The difference is explained by a dramatic rise in part-time working - either female partners are going back into the workforce to make up for the lost pay packet, or those full-time workers have taken part-time work instead of staying on the unemployment rolls.
Today’s figures show another fall in the number working full-time - it went down by 113,000 over the three months to November, whereas part-time work went up by 99,000 - to a record high of 7.7 million. Of those, over a million were working part-time because they couldn’t find a full-time alternative.
171, Captain Underpants to the rescue!
Bryant making statement now
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00675/TTM213101CC_RGB_ONL_675081a.jpg
Re 166.
I was listening to Sky last night and their economic ‘expert’ was speculating that whilst unemployment has slowed all Brown and Darling have done is delay additional unemployment and that we can expect all the ’saved’ jobs to be lost in the next few months/ years.
So basically all Labour have done is delayed the unemployment until after the election. It’s nothing more than a typically cheap Brown election stunt.
173.
£ down but not crashing ?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/intraday.stm
Lady Kinnock - GOAT?
Bring back Pat Hewitt, Jacqui Smith & Hazel Blears…at least they were elected incompetents.
I’m not sure how HMG is going to get out of this one on anti-terror cuts.
165. David - I would like to add my good wishes and congratulations to you as well on your happy news.
171. What a cretin Bryant is.
178 £ 1,666 is certainly not significant if you are a millionaire like Osborne . What is it with these Tory toffs that they have to abuse the system to squeeze out a few more pounds from the expenses system and then the Tory herd on here rush to defend them en masse .
Completely O/T, but this is well worth a read – http://shelleytherepublican.com/2006/08/29/tony-blair-our-friend-across-the-pond.aspx
Some choice extracts:
“Our leading Ally in the fight against terror is the President of England, Mr Tony Blair. He is the leader of England’s Conservative party, a Christian and a true friend of our President and every American.”
“Unfortunately, Mr Blair also has to cope with his own share of wingnuts. England is no stranger to extremeist parties. Opposing Tony in the “House of Lords” (the English equivalent to Congress) is the evil Liberal-Democrat Party. This wingnut party is somewhat similar to the American Democratic party, in that they are both soft on defence and advocate extreme social liberalism.
“The liberals are lead by the firebrand, pro-terrorist MP for Bethnal Green George Galloway. A native “cockney” (somebody from North London), galloway has sworn to tear down all the good work done by Blair’s conservative party.”
Genius!
Oh dear… the Tories have a leaked document saying that there will not be salami slicing, but whole activities will be stopped “soon after the election”.
178. Chris no the GOATS are finished we’re on to the FONTs now (Functionaries of No Talent)……
OUCH!!! Internal memo leak details cuts in budget ‘that should be implemented after the election’
175 I was thinking of that old poster the other day but as an election poster with the little girl saying “you did vote against Gordon Brown like everyone else didn’t you daddy?”
170 - You are right, its miinor.
But its minor because
1.No one expected Osborne to get it right, this is the third overclaim he’s done, the latest being the month after new limits were applied to mortgage claims.
So no one will be surprised that Osborne can’t get it right.
2.The continued presence of Hunt Spelman and Djanogly in position means Cameron has made it clear that he considers any breach irrelevant.
185. Great news - why wait to cancel spending - get the job done ASAP.
182
177
€ is doing worse, tnanks to Greece in part.
Re unemployment. I would guess most people want to see unemployment come down, but probably won’t mind adding these two to the numbers,
http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Alistair+Darling+Visits+Job+Centre+Plus+tv6zsV6oT25l.jpg
http://d.yimg.com/bg/p/091216/afp/iphoto_1260972328053-4-0jpg.jpg
97 On the Paddy Power ‘end of year unemployment’ market, I’m unclear as to whether it will be settled on the the figures that have just been released (which related to the three months to end of November)
Oops, I’m sure you’re quite right Richard, I just assumed that figures which were released on 20 January must have applied to the end December position - but apparently it takes over 7 weeks to arrive at the November total. As you remark however, the bet still looks a winner, the only risk is seemingly on the downside, with thousands hired temporarily for the pre and post Christmas retail trade.
The only reason the £ is not down more is because the Euro is under pressure because of Greece.
Kebab me up.
182
Is it a spoof?! Scary if it’s real
182 John Kellet- Top of the range. That produced a hearty LOL.
156. “Is this as opposed to the altruistic Tory candidates who are standing for the good of the nation?”
A touch harsh, Roger, they are standing with the good of the nation in mind - well, parts of it.
Errr I thought that Boris island had been kicked into touch.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23797725-medway-council-attacks-boris-johnsons-london-island-airport-plan.do
It still breathes.
182 - From that website, they have a poll, that has some betting considerations
Your dream ticket for 2012:
Beck/Palin (32%)
Limbaugh/Palin (20%)
Limbaugh/Beck (18%)
Keyes/Palin (13%)
Limbaugh/Palin (8%)
Keyes/Beck (6%)
Keyes/Limbaugh (3%)
Total Votes: 1,240
BTW I notice Timmy Thicket was very careful to say shooting, not gun crimes, as that is up by 3% apparently.
Pick your stats, take your choice.
191. Oracle
Looking at that first picture I’m sure ’storming’ Norman Tebbit would have some sage advice for Alistair along the lines of ‘Get on your bike Alistair’…..
187 Not up to your usual standard, tim. He didn’t ‘get it wrong’, he followed the advice of the Fees Office, and it’s the Labour-dominated committee, not Cameron, that has ruled on this:
The committee noted that Mr Osborne had been told at the time by the Fees Office that his claims would be within the rules and that he had not personally gained from the claims.
They concluded that the “the breaches of the rules identified… were not major breaches and were not intentional”.
Now does the government put Lady Kinnock up for interviews, so she can explain how she’s been misunderstood, or better to put this goat out in the long grass….
I should have his problems.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23797753-david-beckham-attacked-as-blonde-tv-presenter-grabs-his-golden-balls.do
This counterterrorism stuff is really going to hurt Labour. It is a problem entirely of their own making. Bryant’s only argument seems to be “what would you do?”.
203 - Happens to me all the time. Can be very annoying.
R5 listeners think the crime figures are cooked to look good for the GE.
155. Tim,
Re: George Osborne
If you can stop yourself foaming at the mouth with excitement, and listen.
Lyon’s report says Osborne’s breaches were not “major ones, were not intentional and did not provide Mr Osborne with any significant financial benefit.” He will not have to give an apology to the House. He has paid back circa £1.6K
NOW LET THAT BE THE END OF THE MATTER! YOU HEAR ME, OR I WILL COME ROUND AND ROLL YOU UP IN “OSBORNE AND LITTLE” WALLPAPER AND PARADE YOU THROUGH NOTTING HILL!.
206- They are right
206. I would not screw up the economy and hence the £ wouldn’t be plummeting.
204 - Looks a mess doesn’t it.
Unsurprisingly it seems that Hague has had the figures for six weeks and either didn’t realise or didn’t open his post.
How lazy is that bloke?
Have they not heard of currency options to hedge exposure?
204 wibbler - Bryant’s only argument seems to be “what would you do?”
If he’s short of suggestions, how about diverting funds from ID cards, diversity outreach officers, MPs Communications Allowances, MOD Office refurbishments, and union modernisation funds? That should cover the shortfall with a few billion to spare.
176. I had a conversation around Christmas with a person who is in a good position to judge what government spending really amounts to in practice. What they said was so at odds from what we hear from our politicians that I’ve concluded that none of the parties are be honest about what is going to happen after the general election.
182 we obviously missed seeing Pearly King Galloway, doing the Lambeth Walk, while damning America in his costermonger accent, distracted as we were by his cat suit and milk licking.
207 - Osborne saw a DWP letterhead and signed underneath.
He thought it meant Daddy Will Pay.
210 - Or maybe Timmy, the Tories playing a bit of politics. When the enemy is fighting amongst itself, why interrupt. Or rather when everybody is thinking about Xmas, recovering from Xmas, trying to stab Gordo in the back, would be a complete waste of a leak.
125: I had connections with people who worked on Childline in the early days. The general opinion was that she was sincere but pig-headed and often ignored expert advice. Instead of going for a low- key launch and building it up gradually, she generated enormous amount of publicity to an extent that it couldn’t cope with the vast volume of calls.
Also, she manned the phone for long periods personally. Although those answering the phones only gave their first name, Esther is a fairly unusual name and there was talk that some children were calling in just for the novelty of talking to her and thus blocking more important calls.
It appeared that she had a mixture of good intentions and love of self-publicity and the latter sometimes worked to the detriment of the former.
216 (cont) I’m also sure that Squeaky getting his knuckles wrapped and the release of this info are completely coincidental
“A weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, which is the sign of a weak government”
I am struggling to remember who said that, I know it was quite a long time ago and I seem to recall that it got a lot of coverage at the time.
I see Tim has been back on his Crime Figures nonsense this morning, is there some bad news for the Govenment coming out today? Tim’s figures are, of course, carefully selected to provide verisimilitude, but at best show only a simplistic part of the story, at worst they are complete rubbish, and occasionally he manages both at the same time (e.g. murders are at a n year low). Still, it keeps him amused and seems to be a good way to divert any discussion of politics as such.
202. Lady Kinnock isn’t a goat. She was a Labour MEP. GOATs comes from outside the party-system.
Chris Bryant refuses to make a list of affected changes available (in answer to a very good question by Shailesh Vara).
Also, 80% of Brits live in tower blocks, and 1 in 20 tourists who visit the UK is killed…
http://shelleytherepublican.com/2006/05/26/euro-trip-part-1-the-not-so-great-britain.aspx
@198:
What, did they poll 1,000 dribbling sub-morons or something?
216 - Ah yes, the crafty strategist William Hague.
Bryant’s only argument seems to be “what would you do?”.
by wibbler January 21st, 2010 at 11:44 am
Let me help him…….
Close a few expensive and unproductive embassies I could name, starting with Paris. They can commute from the FO for goodness sake. And it costs millions. The sale of the property portfolio would probably sustain counter terrorism in Pakistan for years.
All the EU embassies are sitting on a fortune, cost a fortune and produce very little except costs.
Why have we an embassy in Belgium and a mission in the EU in Brussels?
A look at the unaccountable ambassadorial spending might pay dividends too. The inflated costs of refurbishing stately offices for the same. Lots of fat there.
Then we might remove the armed forces from Germany which costs a fortune each year for what benefit?
Does he need any more. I have lots. and once we have dealt with the spend overseas we can start at home. Lots and lots there.
The unfortunate thing for Labour with the crime stats is that Labour has a reasonably good story to tell in terms of crime. Crime does seem to be on the decrease but unfortunately for the Government it has abused statistics (particualrly the crime ones) in the past so frequently that many people no longer believe them and so the Government will not get the credit it partially deserves.
220. And are suppossed to have talent.
223 - I think they most have polled Democrats, they would be the dream ticket for the Democats
226 Andrew S - Crime has been dropping in most Western countries.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5721888/ultimately-brown-is-responsible-for-these-antiterror-cuts.thtml
tim o thicket bad news I am afraid. The Tories are almost certainly sitting on lots of ammunition like this and are waiting for the right moment.
Stand by. Wait for the klaxon and then dive, dive, dive!
Off out to see Avator.
If anyone can tackle the challenge at post 83, I’ll get the credit card out when I get back.
225. The FO could easily be cut by 50%, and what a benefit that would be given that it spends so much of its time trying to undermine British interests around the world.
Ex-police officer saying crime figs are tosh as the officers don’t record or reclassify them according to what targets they’re set.
Callers aren’t convinced at all by stats - the whole ‘recorded’ crime meme is that it isn’t reality.
And top story on R5 now - cuts in counter-terrorism.
229. Doubtless Richard, but had Labour not used statistics in the way they have over the past 13 years they might actually get some credit for this phenomena.
They give to anybody a credit card these days, no wonder the banks went busto!
They give a credit card to anybody these days, no wonder the banks went busto!
223. There’s also a poll showing Nadine Dorries in the lead to become next Tory leader, but with Douglas Hogg hot on her heels.
Is it me or is kinnock doing very poorly in the Lords right now?
Surprised Timmy Thicket is going to see Avatar (besides it being rubbish), all those blue men and women running around. Would have thought it would give him nightmares.
Even Harman had the good grace to laugh at George Young’s final comment - having listed some of the government’s class-war contortions, he asked “is this confusion due to the Labour Party’s manifesto being dreamt up on the hockey fields of St. Paul’s?”
How lazy is that bloke?
by tim January 21st, 2010 at 11:47 am
Compared to an internet class warrior who spends 17 hours per day, every day on this site, not very.
233 - Wasn’t the old saying that the Education Bepartment looks after education, the Ministry of Transport looks after transport, and the Foreign Office looks after foreigners?
234.
£0 in both cases as the fathers are dead.
£50 please - I’ll take a cheque if you send me your email.
Lady Kinnock isn’t a goat. She was a Labour MEP.
by Andrew Spencer January 21st, 2010 at 11:52 am
That is right, she and her husband garnered millions through the EU sinecures and now do so as a ‘minister’ and the head of a quango while still raking it in from the EU in terms of a pension and the odd parliamentary allowance in the Lords.
Golden Insidious Troughers is a better description.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/14000-knife-victims-a-year-860857.html
Dr Tunji Lasoye, A&E consultant at King’s College Hospital, London said: “In a nutshell the numbers of stab victims coming into A&E have gone up. It used to be that we would see isolated cases at weekends, but now it is nearly every day of the week. And the age of the victims has gone down. We used to see people in their early 20s; now they are in their mid-teens. And 10 per cent of the victims we see now are girls, which wasn’t the case four or five years ago.”
Interesting counter attack:
“Look at this highly damaging secret document”
“Hah! You’ve had that for weeks! How incompetent are you?!”
tim spends a lot of time seeing movies during the day for a farmer. Or for anyone in employment, for that matter…
244 Apparently there are no similar affairs in countries which already have such tax breaks.
Hang on, that suggests it works!
248, to be fair to tim he is obviously a well educated entrepreneur and will be concealing a video camera under his coat so he can knock out some bent copies of the movie to supplement his benefit payments.
248 - To be fair to Tim, I work a lot, and saw over a hundred films at the cinema last year.
The joys of a Cineworld unlimited card.
251. either way tim is due me £50. I can see no wriggle room what so ever.
235 The Home Office’s endless reclassification of crime stat definitions and moving the goal posts was a nightmare when I worked for the plod.
It was almost impossible to compare anything from years before. Ditto speed cameras - those stats are completely meaningless and yes they are sited in places to make money - that’s how the staff sustain their wages.
I still find it hard to believe that organisations with such a vested interest in fining people opportunistically was ever implemented.
245. No argument there Witan! GITs indeed.
245/254
I have a better one, just needs some help, with suggestions for A,D and S
Government
Of
No
A
D
S
248: He’s an ‘entrepreneur’. which is code word for ‘my daddy gave me some money so I waste my life doing bugger all’.
255 TSE,
Government
Of
Nonsense
And
Desperate
Smearing
Strange how the s##t has hit the fan for the government and Timmy Thicket checks out.
257 - That works for me.
251 - one of the best things I’ve ever spent money on, that card. Alas, I now work so much I can’t actually get any use out of it. But over 2-3 years I saw £3,500 worth of films for about a tenth of that price.
258 - “s##t has hit the fan for the government and Timmy Thicket checks out”
It was noted
but then he has had alot to defend today and Osborne failed to provide the distraction.
Good use of leaks by CCHQ. Blair’s team were similarly adept.
Something I’ve wondered about this treasury mole: Is s/he a victim of a Gordon Nokia attack? Would be poetic justice if so
260 - I had it when they used to be UGC Cinemas. The best year for me, was between October 2003 and April 2004, when I handed in my notice, and was put on gardening leave for 6months.
I practically was living at the cinema.
262 Blair was very good at it - almost everyday there was another one - it was almost painful to watch Major being pummelled.
103 Chris
When its put like that it really is mindboggling and only in 12 months ??
If I ran my business like that I am sure they would have something to say about it. How we are ever going to pay this back is anyones guess yet the numbers just keep increasing day by day just watch the coffee house blog Debt ticker its just eyewatering.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/
We are fast approaching the perfect storm and a economic malestrom.
The knock on effect of this of course was Mrs Kinnock’s absolutely massive gaffe in the House of Lords yesterday. That was an absolute humdinger in all respects.
As a consequence of that I have also just heard a statement made in the HOC where they stated due to budget cuts some staff at the foreign office are now on a 4 day week or unpaid leave. Given the cuts involved it hardly squares with what Brown was saying in the HOC at the same time regarding fighting terrorism.
Funny investment that, perhaps its a zero % cut?
From Waugh
“Sir George Young’s zinger -asks Harman if Govt equality policy was “dreamt up on the hockey fields of St Paul’s”. Genius”
108 Thats nothing just Wait till you see the Q4 figures
240 - P.S. Avatar is awesome
I don’t know the area and am reluctant to argue with OGH on matters Lib Dem on which is is still Yoda however I’m surprised so few people think rantzen won’t hurt the non muslim Lib Dem vote as well. I’d have thought she’d be fishing in a very similar pool. Protest voters, small l liberals, anti politics, likes a strong local champion, single issue populist campaigns etc. The key questions which perhaps a local could answer are
- does she have bodies on the ground?
- is she delivering leaflets?
- has she a local issue profile beyond expenses.
Why is Tim bothering to see Avatar? He already lives in a richly-imagined virtual world populated by endangered creatures engaged in a heroic last-ditch struggle against evil forces.
268 - Especially in 3D
Government
Of
No
Actual
Discernable
Strategy.
tories making PPB today, my source wonders how often ‘actors’ rather than members of the public are used.
Victims of shooting at twenty year low.
Difficult to see how that was fiddled, but I’m sure someone will be along to tell us how.
by tim January 21st, 2010 at 10:37 am
You are so last year. They just stab one another now its quieter.
Did you not see Mz Harmen walking round with a stab vest on?
tim I don’t care what Boris has to say about knife crime, there are 50 million of us who don’t live in London you know.
What does Avatar have going for it other than the graphics and the Hollywood liberal anti-Americanism?
Off-topic, apologies if already posted. This is very interesting:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7036554/Windsor-and-Maidenhead-council-makes-history-with-biggest-ever-cut-in-council-tax.html
In particular I’m pleasantly surprised to find that one of the changes they made to save money was to give some staff more job security [and consequently save on agency fees I guess]:
“putting long term agency staff on to permanent contracts (£25,000). “
Previous attempts of cost-cutting that I’ve heard of have often been counter-productive, because they involve cutting headcount and then having to buy in the work those people did at a higher cost later on. Sensibly they have done the reverse.
There also appear to be some other very good ideas too. Of course, there may be a different perspective somewhere that I haven’t seen…?
In other well-run Tory council news, a particularly large pothole, I have to cycle over, created by the recent freezing weather has already been filled by Tory-run Devon County Council.
It’s not the slash and burn cost-cutting that I remember from my youth in shabby school buildings, and have consequently associated with the Tories ever since.
266. Plato January 21st, 2010 at 12:26 pm
Government
Of
Numpties
And
Diabolical
Shysters
276
Cor.
277 - I think I need some mind bleach
277. MD.
She laughed, as reported at 241
276. Very good stuff - are we close to getting your vote, Timothy?
276: Timothy (likes zebras) @ 12:37
St Luke Chapter 15 verse 10.
183 - ” “soon after the election”.”
That being the key point.
Labour really are pond life.
Appears http://data.gov.uk/ has crashed on release day.
Was just popping over there to see what it was like, as I actually think this is a decent thing by the government, only to find the site has gone down.
285 - Oh no, back up now.
O/T
Political betting goes large.
http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/01/the_derivatives_of_politics.php
284. Floater.
That’s most insulting.
To pond life.
Labour to cut millions from budgets designed to tackle drink and drug-related violence
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1244947/Crime-rate-falls-8-cent-despite-recession.html#ixzz0dFbnB96c
289: Voting labour will cause more beaten women and domestic violence….
Hows that for a headline?
New Thread.
Huh, when a cut is not a cut….
BBC Headline,
“The government says spending on counter-terror projects in Pakistan is rising - but not by as much as it wanted.”
Today just highlighted how the cause of the troubles for the government lies not in bad luck but in Gordon Brown. Had he been nicer to Ms Flint, inviting her to Cabinet for example, which would have cost him nothing, she would still be in the government.
Flint might not be a front rank politician in normal times, but Glenys Kinnock vs Caroline Flint - who would you choose?
*** BETTING POST ***
A good idea might be to identify REALLY BAD value. That way, if the value is bad enough, you could be on the way to identifying good value.
Paddy Power CON Seats 401-450 inc. go 3-1. Pardon me a ‘LOL’ !
You have to Laugh
Here is the State Broadcasters take on the Kinnock Gaffe
“UK counter-terror ‘ambitions’ cut
The government says spending on counter-terror projects in Pakistan is rising - but not by as much as it wanted. ”
So HMG having been caught out on this says through the state broadcaster that this was just ‘an ambition’ and not actual written in stone. So an ambitious negative zero % rise then?
Its the way they tell ‘em !
I just saw Brown lying on Sky about anti-terror cuts. He simply ignored the exchange rate issue and claimed expenditure is growing.
Possibly true in sterling, although I would want it in blood before believing it. But unless it has increased by 25- 30% I doubt it is even effectively the same as 2006/7 in real operational terms overseas.
A demonstration of the damage a weak currency can do.
Another reason, in reverse, why a chunk of the overseas estate the country holds should be sold off now.
More criticism of the inadequacy of the Nuffield Report in a letter to the Herald from Michael Keating, Professor of Politics, Aberdeen University.
“Devolution at its best provides a laboratory for public policy, an opportunity to see what works best and why.
For this reason, the Nuffield report on health service performance in the four countries of the United Kingdom should be welcome.
Unfortunately, the assumptions underlying the report and its methodology render it seriously misleading. Like too many UK-wide comparisons of public policy, it takes indicators elaborated for the English system and criticises the devolved administrations for not meeting them.
In England, the tendency in recent years has been to set rather crude targets and summary measures of performance at the top and judge delivery services on whether they have met them. This is easier than engaging in more rounded evaluation, but dangerously misleading. So the report’s main finding is that “productivity” is higher in England.
This is measured purely by the throughput of patients, regardless of the quality of their experience.
The giveaway here is that the survey also shows (although this was not highlighted) that public satisfaction with the running of the NHS is higher in Scotland. The figures on satisfaction with individual aspects of the service (outpatient, inpatient, GPs) show no consistent pattern except that in none of them does England come out top.
Where the figures, even on the flawed indicators, make the devolved administrations look better, the report resorts to ad hoc adjustment in taking London out of the English averages on the grounds that it has a large medical education sector. So it does, but Scotland also educates a disproportionately large number of medical practitioners and is a net exporter of them. No adjustment is made for this.
Some of the report is pure speculation. Noting that Scotland has maintained high levels of health service staffing in spite of its income advantage coming down because of the Barnett squeeze, it suggests that Scotland may be saving by not using public-private partnerships (the renamed private finance initiative). As the Scottish Executive in the period in question was fully committed to PPP, this seems unlikely. The report says nothing about creeping privatisation of services in England, which might be another explanation (if I, too, can speculate).
The report complains several times that the NHS in Scotland is not directly accountable to the Treasury for its performance outcomes. This not only reflects more top-down thinking, it is also constitutionally uninformed. NHS Scotland is responsible to the Scottish Parliament, not the Treasury in Whitehall.
The report refers consistently to its own “crude” productivity measures. These are often worse than no measures at all, since at least with no measures we know that we are ignorant.
Where I would agree with the Nuffield authors is on the need for good ways of assessing the performance of the various health systems but, again, they spoil their case by suggesting that this could be done only with numerical indicators and by calling on Whitehall to order the devolved administrations to come up with the right ones.
Policy learning is a complex matter and needs to be a horizontal rather than a vertical process. Scotland has a great deal to learn (and not just from Whitehall) and also something to teach. In the difficult financial circumstances facing us, we need to learn how to use resources much more effectively. We also need to learn more sophisticated skills of policy analysis and appraisal to replace the crude indicators that make a good headline but do little for reform.”
I thought GOAT meant Government Of All Tw*ts, which is a pretty good description of Gordon etAl
Do we know if tim has gone to see Avatar in 1D?
232 - ” I’ll get the credit card out when I get back.”
Labour’s answer to everything
Posting 10
So if Muslims in Luton vote for a muslim candidate regardless of their political party that is surely voting based on colour and religion.
Will all the Lib Dem voters want to vote for their candidate ?
So the extra ones they get from the Muslim voters, they could also lose voters to the Tory party.
Luton is no longer the bellwather seat your Tory posters seem to think.It is one of the few seats where the Tory vote went down at the last general election.It will struggle to get above 30%
Some facts you might be interested in
the Asian Population is not 17% but about 24% of the electorate according to this years electoral register but about 40% of those who vote in elections in Luton South according to recent marked registers
The Tories are fuming that Esther has stood…the average Tory voter in Luton is an white ex vauxhall worker…. not a middle class professional ,,,to whom Esther is appealing.I think that and the Tories will suffer most.The LDs are delighted Esther stood
The Lib dems did very poorly with the white vote at the last general election when Qurban was a first time candidate.They have few votes to lose in fact are more likely to gain as his profile and name are now far better known and accepted by white voters
Labour failed to select an asian candidate by 2 votes for the seat leaving Qurban Hussain with a free run and a disollusioned Asian Labour caucus
The ‘Asian’ Lib Dem vote is still strong due to local issues and personalities
Qurban Hussain is the only ’second time’ candidate
The Tories have consistently underperformed in Luton for a decade as the demographics have changed as well as 24% of the voters being of asian name less that 60% are traditional white british
so the Tories have a far smaller group to try and get votes from.
The Tories couldn’t even win Luton in a European election so why will they win a General?
The LD vote is heavily squewed to Luton South
The Tories have no more votes to get from the 5000 votes inattached villages and in fact will probably lose some to ESTHER
The Labour Party have not given up they know the seat will be won on about 13500 votes or 33%.They are exceptionally well organised despite Moran and know how to buck the trend in elections
Esther will come fourth….her campaign is all froth and no groundwork .Id estimate about 4500 max….but enough to scupper the Tories
Unfortunately what ever they say to her face very few Muslim voters will vote for a Jewish Woman
20-1 is well worth a punt!!!!!