Could Labour be being understated in the polls?
January 18th, 2010
Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far?
The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning - could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far?
And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory?
For unlike any previous election we go into the coming 2010 battle with every single one of the national pollsters now utilising measures of one sort or another to deal with Labour overstatement.
Glover writes: “For the past 25 years telephone pollsters have been wrestling with a persistent tendency of the polls to overstate Labour’s share of the vote. Since 1983 the only final poll before election day to have proved to be too kind to the Conservatives was ICM’s in 1997. Pollsters have got used to voters treating the Conservatives as the underdogs. They use adjustments to allow for the fact that telephone samples contain more Labour voters than the electorate as a whole, and that Labour voters overstate their likelihood to vote.
They have also had to deal with the so-called spiral of silence – the fact that some voters whose party choice is unpopular will hide their party allegiance from pollsters. Plot election polls for the last 25 years on a chart, and most overstate the likely lead of the winning party. All this has had the effect of increasing figures for Tory support – and making the polls more accurate.
But what if, in the context of 2010, these assumptions are turned on their head? We already know that in the last 18 months or so the spiral of silence has helped Labour: pollsters now find themselves having to increase Labour’s share, to take account of people who say they have switched away from the party but may still turn out for it on polling day. Perhaps some shy Labour voters are even now evading the pollsters’ radar..”
I think that Glover is wrong to put so much emphasis on “shy Tories” and the spiral of silence adjustment because it gives the impression that this is the major measure that pollsters deploy. It’s not and in any case it is confined to ICM, Populus and ComRes. The main elements have been the measures to ensure politically balanced samples and to take into account certainty to vote.
Glover’s also not correct to state that the “spiral of silence” adjustment started helping Labour only eighteen months ago. This trend began well before the 2005 election.
Overall the evidence is still that the most accurate poll is the one that has Labour in the least favourable position as we saw at the 2008 London mayoral race, the 2009 EU election, and at Crewe & Nantwich and Glasgow East
As I wrote in June I had thought that my “polling golden rule” about the polls and Labour might not survive the EU elections. I was wrong. Populus and YouGov had Labour’s share at 16% just above the 15.7% that was actually achieved. Other firms had Labour higher with one of them at 22%.
In 2005 the firms did quite well - but even then the final polls from all of them but NOP over-stated Labour. That pollster got it precisely right and then got sacked by its commissioning paper, the Independent.
I think that Glover is right to raise the issue - but so far there’s no evidence to support the argument that the pollsters have gone too far.
Mike Smithson
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1st?
1. Yay!
FPT: where is the list of people’s predictions from the 2010 competition? The link on the previous thread didn’t work - it goes to the Election Game website but not to the detailed list.
1 - Looks like it, I logged in to an empty page with no comments, but was so shocked I failed to cease the moment!
Still no word yet on who is to be the Labour candidate in Sefton Central…
Spoke to a Tory councillor tonight (who presumed I was a supporter of the Labour party - what is it about Tories????
)
Anyhow, when pressed, based on his canvass returns, etc
he opined that he expected the Tories to win by 2,000 votes, with Labour certainly second.
Could be a recount, then…
One to watch?
3. You can make time stand still!?
(OT) Historical curiosity: Mo Mowlam knew in 1996 that she was terminally ill but lied to Tony Blair about it - and the tumour affected her judgment and behaviour
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mo-mowlam-lied-to-blair-about-her-brain-tumour-1870413.html
4. Is that one of those awkward boundary changes which means that Crosby is no longer in Crosby and that therefore Crosby has to change its name to Sefton Central?
(A bit like Bodmin - - - - Cornwall South East)
FPT further thought about Rory Stewart: I’m not sure if he looks ugly in a boyish looks-younger-than-he-is/awkward teenager style, or a looks-older-than-he-is style.
When will Rory become Foreign Secretary?
2010 33/1
2011 12/1
2012 9/1
2013 6/1
2014 4/1
2015 or later 6/1
Never 1/1
Sefton Central has had massive boundary changes. The 2005 notional was - Lab 18,776 (45.60%); C 13,826 (33.58%); LD 7,915 (19.22%); Others 356 (0.86%); UKIP 306 (0.74%)
So it goes on a 6% swing which is smaller than that recorded by YouGov in its recent poll of northern marginals.
7. Yes, it’s a a bloody disgrace. I can already feel my house value falling, now I’m “in” Bootle…
Seriously though, it is a tragedy. The Crosby constituency name has existed since 1950 and did produce sensational results in both 1981 and 1997, and was the largest mainland constituency in 1983…
Julian Glover’s article focussed on the ’spiral of silence’, when he might have been better to focus on ‘certainty to vote’.
The main reason why Labour and the Lib Dems may both pick up is that those supporting the Tories are more likely to say that they are certain to vote at this point in time. This may change somewhat as the election nears and people become more focussed on the election. So whilst it is likely that the Tories will do better out of that differential, it is perhaps being overstated a little at this point in time. This effect will probably help the Lib Dems most, who tradionally appear to have later ‘activation’ of their voters.
9. Sefton Central has had massive boundary changes.
[goes to look at old stuff from the Boundary Commission]
Oh gosh yes. It’s more change than I had remembered. But it still seems to include “Crosby” itself, although Crosby doesn’t even have a ward named after it.
The issue of overstatement or understatement of Labour is connected surely to the trend of the polls themselves. If Labour is being understated it means that they will recover some ground vs what is being shown today. I don’t see anything to drive that forwards - in fact the opposite may be true. Labour may well still be overstated by most pollsters. Certainly the Angus Reid share for Labour seems notably lower and notably consistent.
For all their recent disasters Labour have over quite a long time been fairly successful in peddling the idea that Tories are nasty and leftoes are cuddly. Many people look at Blair or Brown and think ‘yuk’ but they still may have some older softer mental images of the Labour party in a more general sense. Or at least they used to.
The real damage of Blair and Brown has been the destruction of the image of down-to-earth honesty. Wilson, Callaghan, Foot, Kinnock, Smith - these were leaders who many may have had some strong policy disagreements with, but they did at least come across as genuine and decent people.
New Labour has been one long pillage through our establishment and notions of decency in public life. It has been a decade of blatant lies and bullying. The Labour = nice and honest message has now been trashed comprehensively.
42 / 28 / 19 is about right.
re 11. I agree on the Lib Dems. Their supporters have a long history of being cautious when asked the “certainty to vote” question which is out of line with actual voting patterns. I guess that people of a liberal disposition don’t like saying they are “100% certain” about anything!
I’m not so sure that this applies to Labour.
10. It’s nostalgia like that which makes me think sometimes that we should keep constituency boundary changes permanent and unchanged, for the benefit of continuity in comparisons by us election anoraks. It’s a pity that the 1983 and 1997 landslides both happened on new boundaries - the shock effect of some safe seats falling was softened/mitigated by the fact that some constituencies (like Basildon, for example) had substantially different boundaries from before.
Still having general elections on the 1945 boundaries would be fun - especially in the East End of London, where what is now Southwark had about 10 constituencies, and what is now Tower Hamlets had 7 constituencies. It could be managed by allowing each MP to have some sort of block vote in parliament according to his/her electorate.
It would also make it easier to enact one of my ideas for electoral reform: gradually abolish general elections, and just have by-elections. Each constituency would have to have a new election on each 5th anniversary after their most recent by-election. The number of constituencies having by-elections (or 5th anniversaries thereof) would increase with natural wastage, and the residual general election every five years (for the constituencies which haven’t had a by-election) would gradually become smaller each time.
I don’t think I noticed this link on the previous thread, so here it is:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Mondays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Monday-January-18-2010/Media-Gallery/201001315527578?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15527578_Mondays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Monday%2C_January_18%2C_2010
On topic, Labour will - by definition - be overstated in every poll and in every election result. The correct result should be 0%. Anybody who votes Labour, or who says they will, does so incorrectly.
12. Most of central and southern Crosby (Victoria ward) and Waterloo (Church ward) is decanted into Bootle. The northern minority remnants of Crosby (Blundellsands ward (very very posh) and parts of Manor ward) go into Sefton Central. The towns of Maghull and Aintree rejoin the seat (previously in Crosby constituency 1983-97.)
Formby & Maghull would now be a more accurate name for the seat instead of the meaningless Sefton Central.
The strange thing is “Formby & Maghull” would - to anyone who knows the area - be a safe Tory seat, with the LibDems second. Yet the notionals, checked every which way by myself and others, indicate Labour would have won by 5,000 in 2005.
Sefton Central could produce a rather surprising result…
FPT 280 John Loony. The Senate has passed its bill, and the House has passed another bill. They are very different and have to be ‘reconciled’. The reconciled bill should then be sent back to both the Senate and the House for passage. That stage is open to filibuster, unless the Dems resort to underhand tricks which will hurt them politically at the mid-terms in November. Brown would by the 41st vote, ie the vote which will enable the GoP to filibuster the reconciled bill in the Senate, so healthcare reform would be dead in its current form.
It would appear that I have got an absolute majority of the messages in this thread so far. Is this an indicator of the proportion of votes I will get in the geberal election in Croydon Central?
Talking of which, I received an eight-page coloured A4 newsletter today from my MP Andrew Pelling (Ind). There has been widespread speculation about whether he will stand as an independent candidate at the general election. I tend to think that he won’t, but he is clearly preparing for the possibility (just in case). He is genuinely very popular in the constituency and I think that if he stood he would probably get between 4,000 and 8,000 votes.
There is a real possibility that he could split the Conservative vote and allow Labour to gain the seat - but I think that’s unlikely because I have been told by Gavin Barwell (Conservative prospective candidate) that Pelling’s support would (according to the Conservative Party’s canvassing figures) come equally from people who would otherwise vote Conservative and Labour.
Even if one assumes that Pelling’s votes came from people who would otherwise vote 75% Caon and 25% Lab, it’s unlikely that it would split the vote and let Labour in.
Gavin Barwell (Con) 1/9
Gerry Ryan (Lab) 12/1
Andrew Pelling (Ind) 16/1
John Cartwright (OMRLP) 33/1
Any Other 200/1
20.
Andrew Pelling won’t stand 1/1
He will stand and get 0 to 999 votes 20/1
He will stand and get 1,000 to 1,999 votes 10/1
He will stand and get 2,000 to 3,999 votes 9/1
He will stand and get 4,000 to 5,999 votes 4/1
He will stand and get 6,000 to 7,999 votes 5/1
He will stand and get 8,000 or more votes 10/1
Philippe Magnan. The PPP poll is out:
SUNDAY, JANUARY 17, 2010
Massachusetts Senate Poll
Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 51-46 in our final Massachusetts Senate poll, an advantage that is within the margin of error for the poll.
Over the last week Brown has continued his dominance with independents and increased his ability to win over Obama voters as Coakley’s favorability numbers have declined into negative territory. At the same time Democratic leaning voters have started to take more interest in the election, a trend that if it continues in the final 36 hours of the campaign could put her over the finish line.
Here’s what we found:
-Brown is up 64-32 with independents and is winning 20% of the vote from people who supported Barack Obama in 2008 while Coakley is getting just 4% of the McCain vote.
-Brown’s voters continue to be much more enthusiastic than Coakley’s. 80% of his say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting Tuesday while only 60% of hers express that sentiment. But the likely electorate now reports having voted for Barack Obama by 19 points, up from 16 a week ago, and a much smaller drop from his 26 point victory in the state than was seen in Virginia.
-Those planning to turn out continue to be skeptical of the Democratic health care plan, saying they oppose it by a 48/40 margin.
-Coakley’s favorability dropped from 50% to 44% after a week filled with perceived missteps. Brown’s negatives went up a lot but his positives only actually went from 57% to 56%, an indication that attacks against him may have been most effective with voters already planning to support Coakley but ambivalent toward Brown.
-56% of voters in the state think Brown has made a strong case for why he should be elected while just 41% say the same of Coakley. Even among Coakley’s supporters only 73% think she’s made the argument for herself, while 94% of Brown’s supporters think he has.
17 Loony - you’re certianly right that the correct Labour result should be 0%. Anyone voting Labour after this government is someone who really doesn’t care about standards in public life. Or about the nation’s finances.
The Guardian has not given up the narrative. Others are hedging, but mostly have abandoned the pre-Snow Rebellion narrative.
For those who doubt the manipulation of polling to support a pre-planned narrative, I recommend reading
‘The Broken Compass - How British Politics Lost Its Way’, published in hardback by continuum, written by Peter Hitchens.
Philippe: Here’s the link to the details of the PPP:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf
22 I would be delicious if Brown wins the MA election today. I saw a couple of really good articles via RealClearPolitics on Obama - both of them basically saying that he ran as a middle-of-the-roader who promised a bipartisan approach in government but then went hardcore lefty as soon as he was elected. So a classic bait and switch lying lefty big government spendaholic tactic. No wonder our Brown in the UK worships at his feet.
It’s WAAAAAYYY early to start talking about 2012 US presidential election betting - but….I’d strongly recommend putting money down now on Obama not being re-elected. He’s a serious lefty trying to run an essentially centre-right country and now they can see him for exactly what he is. He’s going to get swept out of power on a ‘Tea Party’ movement.
I believe OGH got a win at odds of 50/1 on Obama being elected - and I presume that bet was laid down early.
24. Is anything written by Peter Hitchens a reliable guide to the veracity or otherwise of bonkers conspiracy theories?
When I sent him a copy of my 2001 general election manifesto (because I mentioned him in it) he wrote back to thank me for it. His letter was addressed to “Mr Carhill”.
26. I’m going to stick my neck out and predict that Obama will be re-elected in 2012.
28 Fancy a bet at evens?
Patrick @ 26 My wife and I have been saying one-term President since the stimulus package was rammed through without bipartisan support. She is an independent, and was turned off by Obama well before he wrapped up the nomination (ie before VA and MD primaries) as promising the impossible.
As you say, it’s too early to say with any certainty, but he has to do a Clinton to survive - learn from the failures of the 1st half of his term and move decisively to the centre in the 2nd half so he has an actual record that is not 100% big government far left liberal agenda (after all, his senate voting record made him the most liberal senator to the left of Ted Kennedy and John Kelly). If he does not change tack, there’s no way I see him being reelected - he’s lost the Mountain West and I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington and Oregon see Dem losses statewide. As yet, I’ve seen precious little to indicate Obama gets it. And it seems to be his chosen way to let Reid and Pelosi lead on domestic policy-making. I don’t see that changing…
JohnLoony Are you based in the UK or USA? What makes you think Obama will get re-elected?
27. No doubt he thought it an improvement!
Hitchens quotes a source - Michael Dobbs, a former senior official of the Conservative Party, in To Play The King.
The point is that Guardian writers and editors are under instruction (they are given very firm guidelines from on high - I know a Guardian editor personally who has complained that they are not allowed much leeway) to keep the Hung parliament alive. This can only be done by querying the results of current polling.
Pollsters/their paymasters are no doubt stretching their interpretation of results to the max already. The Guardian are merely adding another spin to the already spun.
It might be evidence yet of an intention to add a few votes into marginals by one method or another. A refusal to accept evidence is not necessarily to be interpreted as a sign of intellectual probity.
30 If the Dems lose in MA then the fillibuster is back and midterms loom. Obama has three big things he wants to turn socialist:
1. Health (the public option)
2. Energy (cap and trade)
3. Wall street
Together that’s nearly 50% of the US economy.
He needs major legislation passed for all three in the face of deep public opposition, and on all three it’s starting to look like he has over-reached and completely misread his mandate. He seems the sort who is stuck on ‘transmit’ and genuinely can’t bear to listen to the plebs telling him they don’t agree (he has so much in common with Gordon Brown). Clinton was an out and out populist - changing tack to fit the wind will have come quite easily to him. Obama is an ideologue and a fuc*ing arrogant SoB - he’ll find it very, very hard to hit the middle.
29. No - I don’t do bets.
31. UK (!). Largely because the Republican Party won’t be able to find a popular viable realistic winnable candidate.
34 Scott Brown?
Mike’s OP is wrong to suggest the phone pollsters take politically balanced samples.
Final digit randomisation of phone numbers is pretty much guaranteed to over-sample Labour supporters which is why the pollsters need to weight so heavily their results.
Better-off people are more likely to go ex-directory, so the phone book contains an artificially high proportion of Labour voters. Randomising the final digit cannot overcome this bias because phone numbers are assigned not randomly but in geographic blocks, as are houses.
34 JohnLoony. You are right, the GoP has real problems still, not just with candidates, but also in deciding whom they want to be. But there is a growing sense of outrage with Obama for getting elected on a very specific post-partisan centrist platform and then immediately upon assuming the office saying “I won” in answer to the question “what happened to bipartisanship”, and proceeding to tack extremely hard left.
In short, unless he changes tack again, I think there are two very pertinent factors for the 2012 race:
1. anger amongst Republicans and independents will motivate the anti-Obama vote and for this group who the precise GoP candidate is will be less important
2. the enthusiasm for Obama has diminished significantly amongst the Democrats he most relied upon to get elected - the liberal wing and the first time voters (the latter group already absent in the VA and NJ gubernatorial contests).
So, I think the lower Dem vote coupled with a highly energized anti-vote will trump the GoP’s disorganization and lead to a GoP win, unless Obama wises up.
33 Obama’s socialism (Patrick)
1. Health — sold out to the insurance companies and big pharma;
2. Energy — a market solution;
3. Wall Street propped up with hundreds of billions of dollars (repayment for all those campaign contributions).
It’s socialism, Jim, but not as we know it.
Hat-tip to SeanT who tipped Avatar for everything bar the Boat Race. 3/1 for the Golden Globes last night. Get in my son!
38 JohnL Patrick did say that was a list of things Obama wanted to turn socialist, not that he had fully succeeded in getting what he wanted. Obama was fairly explicit at the outset that he wanted the full public option for healthcare. He has settled for the sell out to the insurance industry.
The Wall Street result is only not socialist because Obama did not do what a capitalist should have done, which is take an equity stake in the banks for all that tax payer money sunk in. But then he repaid the banks at 100 cents on the dollar for the deals ‘insured’ by AIG - also not something a self-respecting capitalist would have done.
As for cap and trade, a full market solution would have entailed auctions wouldn’t it? As I understand it, there were all sorts of backroom deals to give sweet deals to those industries with the strongest lobbies.
Peter Hitchens is interesting as one of a number of right wing authors attacking Cameron from the right. They fear one essential truth:
The Cameroons are Blairites.
This is one conspiracy theory I agree with and indeed ‘Spiral’ is Labour’s only hidden card.
The Tories have the super new efficiency of their vote and the Lib Dems possess Magic Dust so it’s only fair that Labour have a joker to play.
My forecast: 368-197-47-11-5-3-1-18.
Everyone seems too embarassed to include comments on AngusReid, when discussing the potential Labour vote. Their prediction is unlikely to be under-stated. They are a highly regarded pollster, under the auspices of Mike himself. Many posters have dismissed them out-of-hand, without any attempt to explain their consistency. Mike himself believes their figures are in error by about 2%, without telling us on what basis he dismisses their forecast. This is so important, I think AR should be asked to write a thread for us, justifying their belief that they have it right and all the other pollsters are wrong.
40 re Obama (TimT)
Crony capitalism doth not a socialist make.
38 Socialismis all about absolute control. The state vs the individual.
1. Obama wants to force young people to buy insurnace they may not want or need and for teh state to compete with private insurers - effectively nationalising the medical insurance industry. Pure socialism.
2. Market solution to what? There are plenty of good reasons to limit grossly inefficient energy usage - but AGW is not one of them. The government would get to set the amount of carbon in the economy and who is allowed to produce how much. This will create a massive, massive tax and inefficiency in the energy system of the country that applies it and leave everyone else open to abuse (and indeed the EU C&T carbon credits trading system is on the point of collapse precisely Obama would put the government completely at the middle of the energy system, with enormous costs for the USA and with zero impact on the CO2 in the atmosphere. Pure socialism. Tax and controls for the sake of it masquerading as ’save the planet’.
3. Wall Street is broken to some extent. The underlying problem to address is the ‘too big to fail’ one and the resulting moral hazard and risk to taxpayers. A regulatory failure both in the USA and in the UK. Taxing the backside off bankers does not resolve this fundamental problem. If Obama really wanted to address the root cause he should reinstate Glass-Seagall (have I spelled that correct? not sure). He’s playing lefty tokenism at bashing the bankers. It is a distraction. Bankers’ pay should be set only by the market - BUT.. in a market where there is no risk at all of shareholder losses spilling onto the taxpayer. Again socialism at work.
44 John L I agree Obama has not ended up with socialist solutions but, as you say, crony capitalism. But I think his initial instincts are all socialist. He just cannot realize those instincts because, even with Democratic control of all three branches of government, and very liberal Democrat control of all the important committees, the USA is just not ready at all for fully-fledged socialism. So Obama is settling for crony capitalism.
…typing skills lacking a bit there - sorry for the typos…
Glass Steagall Act of 1993
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass–Steagall_Act
48 Thank you
The two excellent, punchy Obama articles I was referring to:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2010/01/15/obama039s_disconnect_it039s_the_policies_227752.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/01/15/one_year_out_the_fall_99907.html
Basically, what this article is asking is “how do we get Labour voters to think its worth turning out so that it isn’t a massacre come the election due to stay at home, disgusted Labour voters?”
Given that the polls aren’t closing, the government has lost all the major arguments especially on the needs for cuts and Brown is massively unpopular, there’s nothing left but to start spinning like crazy that somehow, somewhere there are millions of Labour voters who just don’t want to tell anyone they’re going to vote Labour but they are really. So if you all turn out, Labour might win.
Yeah right. The best interpretation remaining is that it’s now considered embarassing to be a Labour voter.
These are the key markets in order of importance.
OVERALL MAJORITY
NOM 4.1-4.3 (LTP 4.1)
CON MAJ 1.40-1.42 (LTP 1.40)
LAB MAJ 18.0-18.5 (LTP 18.0)
Some very keen Backers in this market. NOM never goes out of fashion and there is even support for a LAB MAJ ! You can’t go wrong here.Just be a Backer of CON MAJ or NOM or both but try to take better prices than those Last Traded Prices.
48 Oops! 1933 not 1993
51 cont - And, given what they’ve done to the country whilst in government, that would be a reasonable thing to be…embarassed as hell for having helped cause this mess by supporting such a ramble of fools and incompetents.
MOST SEATS.
CON 1.14-1.15
LAB 8.0-8.2
The LTP on the Tories was 1.14 and it is just over a week ago that I backed them at 1.17.This constitutes a huge move. It came mainly on the back of two good polls from ARS and Populus and Tory Backers have not been deterred by YouGov.
The much tinier side-markets tell the same tale. All the money is for the Tories to do well and Labour to do badly.
As a bizarre aside, there has been money for the Lib Dems in the range 65-69…….so there is belief in Magic Dust.
41. Yes. Fear is a good word. But is it likely? Cameron is intelligent enough to know he had to pretend to be a Blairite to get media. Like Blair had to pretend to be a fiscal Tory. He wasn’t.
56 Are you saying Dave won’t cut the spending? I don’t believe it. Osborne has been saying the cuts start on day 1. If Dave comes in and then proceeds to do nothing the Tories will deserve to get sent to oblivion just as Labour now deserve it.
I may be projecting my wishes onto Dave, but I honestly think he will make a serious effort at undoing the crap Labour have visited upon us these last 12 years. One can only vote with that in mind. If he does an Obma style bait and switch the fury of the right will know no limits and Dave’s name will be mud forever.
He will cut back the state. Is it possible to bet on this?
John Loony / TimT, there’s an article here on the Democrats’ options for healthcare if they lose a Senate seat:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34908730
The main one is for the House just to pass the Senate bill as it, so there won’t be anything to be reconciled. (Don’t know if this was one of the options TimT considers an “underhand trick”…)
Blair was all about nothing other than Tony Blair. He wanted to get elected and to be famous. The Labour party was just a vehicle for Blair himself. Having got elected it is clear that he had no real agenda, nothing serious he wanted to deliver. He wanted adulation and nothing more. That’s not so dangerous. A ‘do nothing’ decade would have been good. If we had left the City regulation and Tory spending plans in tact since 1997 the UK would now be very, very much better off. I don’t hate Blair for that.
So Blairism is at its heart a philosophy of spin. Presentation as a substitute for policy. There was no end so the means became everything. (The fact that he had Brown in tow and that this led to disaster spending is an incidental unfortunate thing that, with hindsight, I’m sure Blair will regret to his dying day).
For Dave, I just don’t see this. I think Dave does have an end in mind. I don’t think he’s in politics to get elected for the sake of getting elected. I could be dead wrong but what I have seen suggests to me that he is serious about spending and the state and society.
The left are shit scared of this election not because they fear Dave is a Blairite but because in their hearts they know he isn’t. Their cherished client state is about to get a pummelling. Their hopes for a lefty utopia will die for another generation. Good.
- “Could Labour be being understated in the polls?”
No.
Just wait until the ‘Brown Epiphany’ kicks in during the final 4-week campaign. If you think that 30% is “low”, then you ain’t seen nothin yet.
Does anybody remember the Labour claims in 2005 of the wholesale Tories cuts made by Liebour?
It’s scary to think that with the national debt et al being well known, not only do 3 in 10 voters still think that Brown is best placed to deal with this, but that Brown (if left to him) would still be using this line today…
He must have plenty of faith in the postal vote/friday counting to consider his position as tenable.
It is certainly the case that Labour could be being understated. I think it is impossible to say whether they are being until the election occurs and even then it would still be somewhat speculative. I suspect that any poll with an others rating above 10-11% is understating all three main parties.
As to the little side topic of Obama 2012, I think it is far too early to tell at the moment. Clearly the gilt was going to come off the gingerbread due to the ludicrous expectations that were generated. However does that mean that the US public will vote for A N Other? Not necessarily, but if there is a credible centrist Republican candidate then they could provide an election rather than a walkover. One shouldn’t rule out of course a credible third party challenge in the mode of Ross Perot which could upset the apple cart as well. At the moment probably best to watch and wait.
I’d certainly consider analysis that suggested Obama might lose (although I think it unlikely), but certainly not from someone who thinks Obama’s some hardcore socialist. It’s really not bourne by the facts on the ground, and such accusations are the preserve of people like Mel “Obama will gain power and change the constitution to keep himself there” Phillips.
FPT - 68
Don (the other one) asked this question just after I had logged out for the night:
“I asked this question previously and never got an answer from the Nats on here. It is meant as a serious question not troll bait.
Would you abide by a referendum of the English population effectively expelling Scotland from the Union.
Do you know of any polls that have asked the English if they wish to keep Scotland as part of the Union?
It would be nice to see what the other side of the coin looked like.”
1. If England want to kick Scotland out of the Union, then that is absolutely fine by me. But English constitutional law (allegedly) allocates sovereignty to Parliament, and as England does not currently have her own parliament, it is hard to see how your “kicking out” scenario would work in practice. Besides, do the Welsh and Northern Irish not have opinions on “kicking out” another member?
2. Yes. Please see this ICM/Sunday Telegraph poll from November 2006 (note: before the arrival of either Salmond as FM or Brown as PM).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1535193/Britain-wants-UK-break-up-poll-shows.html
So, Gordon Brown thinks that it is simply not possible to break up the Yookay, does he? That unfounded certainty, that arrogance, runs like a red thread throughout the Labour Party (Scotchlandshire Parish Branch). We’ll see soon enough.
Mostly agree with James Burdett on Obama 2012. Obama likely wins if any of the following are true:
1) Obama is popular
2) The Republican candidate is unelectable
3) There’s a substantial third-party challenge from the right
The problem for the Republicans is that avoiding (2) is in tension with avoiding (3). It’s going to be a challenge for them to find a candidate who swing-voters will find acceptable for without the tea-partiers throwing their toys out of the pram.
The polls could be understating Labour. The polls could also be understating the Tories and the Lib Dems. We won’t know for sure what the public mood is until the election. All opinion polls are best guesses of a moving target. If there was a cast-iron technique that indisputably worked, all pollsters would use the same method. They don’t. That is why polls should be taken but not inhaled.
It is always worthwhile looking at other clues. Richard Nabavi has astutely pointed out that the panic in the senior Labour ranks is a good indication of where we’re going. I agree. At present I am inclined to stick with the golden rule for this reason.
Does anyone know why Ladbrokes have taken down many of their constituency prices? Is Shadsy simply re-pricing them? If so, it is unusual for him to actually remove seat prices for days in a row.
Bookies’ best prices (sans Ladbrokes) - Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
LD 4/6 PP, VC
Con 6/5 PP, VC, WH
SNP 25/1 PP
Lab 100/1 VC, WH
67 The new Ladbrokes political betting site had teething problems , Shadsy posted on Friday that the constituency prices section should be back up running today .
68. Thanks Mark.
65 So if Obama carries on as he has and the GOP can find someone who is quietly religious, affable, a gun owner and talks sense then Obama is in real trouble.
Note that the things that hit the Tea Party G-Spot (smaller government and ’sound money’ ) are not necessarily mutually exclusive with those that excite the right (abortion, the media, religion, gun law). There must surely be someone in the Republican party higher levels who can plant one foot reasonably comfortably in each camp. They’ve got two or three years to find him (or her).
This one is for Mark Senior:
Bookies’ best prices - Dunfermline & West Fife
Lab evens PP, WH
LD 11/10 VC
SNP 8/1 VC
Con 100/1 VC
Get your pocket money out Mark! Victor Chandler want your custom.
Haven’t the polls proved reasonably accurate for the Mayoral, local and euro elections?
Sounds like straw-grasping.
72. Morris Dancer
Not really. For example the “blue ribband” pollster ICM was miles and miles out for both the Lib Dems (way too high) and UKIP (way too low) in its last poll before the Euros.
To be so far off the real result is actually highly unusual.
Glover’s problem is that even with the adjustment for Labour overstatement in the polls, it is still underforming even these low levels and the leftie media just cannot come to grips with the fact their beloved Labour party is now hated in the country.
73, different system though. UKIP did very well last time, but almost as well the time before that. In the GE though, people are backing or (and hopefully probably) sacking Brown. Voting UKIP won’t achieve either end.
That’s an interesting article from Julian Glover, but I can find no evidence from recent elections that Labour is being understated anywhere.
The spiral of silence adjustment now favours Labour, as Glover points out (ICM and Populus would be showing a 2% increase in the Conservative lead without out), and I can’t see how past vote weighting would understate them (unless the weightings are are too pessimistic for Labour, as, arguably, the ARPO weightings are).
That leaves certainty to vote, which does hit their support, but there’s a wealth of evidence that Labour supporters, particularly in their safe seats, are less inclined to vote than Conservatives or Lib Dems.
‘Shocking drink figures fail to persuade’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6991715.ece
77 - The problem with minimum pricing is that it is hitting the wrong end of the problem. What it would end up doing is clobbering the responsible drinker, and the alcohol addict will either engage in further criminality or will channel their addiction into other substances.
Good Morning Very Shy Conservative Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Let’s not forget that during the period 79-92 shy Conservative syndrome always fell away at one specific point - the general election. For Labour until recently haven’t got into the terrible inter general election doings so we have little evidence that the same syndrome is at play.
My wet finger in the wind indicates …. a highly Scottish not proven !!
Minimum pricing really doesn’t work. Parish Clerk Salmond should consider other measures.
66 “The polls could also be understating the Tories and the Lib Dems.”
I doubt the polls understate the LibDems. Most LibDem voters are happy to wear their political intentions on their sleeve - just look at the way they get a massive poster superiority in seats they still lose badly. It’s like putting up a poster for a disaster relief jumble sale.
I could believe that the polls still understate the Tories. I know plenty of people who are members of the Party who are still reluctant to admit their political alliegance in public. It comes down to years of Labour and LibDems banging away at how being a Tory is akin to kiddie fiddling. And as Clegg joins Brown in bashing the Tories again, Tory voters will again be reluctant to be a proud Conservative. This may be especially true of Labour-to-Tory switchers, who may feel angry at Labour but less happy to admit they have walked away after giving Labour perhaps decades of their support
74. Easterross - “… the leftie media just cannot come to grips with the fact their beloved Labour party is now hated in the country.”
Yes and no.
I agree that an awful lot of London-based journalists just do not fully realise the profundity of the widespread hatred for Brown and his party in ‘Middle England’ -> those numerous medium-sized English towns which are disproportionately marginal-heavy.
However, even those journalists who DO fully appreciate the catastrophe awaiting the Labour Party still have an interest in talking down the coming hurricane (storm is too mild a word). Firstly, they must sell newspapers: and close elections are an easier sell than foregone conclusion elections. Secondly, a lot of them have a wicked interest in maximising Labour’s post-election torment: if they can get gullible Labour activists to actually believe they have a chance, then the coming defeat is going to utterly crush their spirit.
I’d love to know how many local Labour party meetings are going to fail to reach quorum in the 2nd half of 2010. About 75%?
Even if Glover is right [and I don't think he is], he fails to mention ‘tactical unwind’, where voters cast their ballots for the party most likely to defeat the Government.
The last time tactic-unwind occurred [at a GE] was in 1997, when Labour did disproportionately well. This time it’s the Tories turn to benefit from the anti-Government vote from the floaters.
Whether or not you believe OGH’s ‘golden rule’ about the most accurate poll showing Labour in the worst position, now is not the time to bet against it.
78. James Burdett - “What it would end up doing is clobbering the responsible drinker… “
No, it would not. Because responsible drinkers do not buy super-cheap supermarket ciders and lagers.
81 MM. Marquee Mark in Lib Dems not overstated in polls shocker !!
In others news ….
Easterross on trail of former Labour Glasgow Councillor
Stuart Dickson buys morris dancing manual
Mike Smithson in wig study trials
Jack W follows UKIP lead in the hope of banning ladies shoe shops !!
Minimum pricing (Stuart Dickson and others)
There is iirc some research suggesting that it is not price but availability that is key. If so, getting alcohol off the supermarket shelf and back into off-licences might be the way to go.
77. Why would the nationalist party want to get rid of one of the great Scottish traditions-drunkenness?
87 Roger. Rubbish !! …. Hic ….
“Richard Nabavi has astutely pointed out that the panic in the senior Labour ranks is a good indication of where we’re going”
They only get their information from the pollsters?
80. David - “Minimum pricing really doesn’t work.”
Really? Tell that to the Swedes.
Their entire society and economy suffered from chronic alcohol abuse in the 19th century. State imposition of minimum alcohol prices was a key element in the solution.
84 - I know plenty of responsible drinkers who buy cheap supermarket lagers for making shandy with as there is no discernible difference in taste and a big discernible difference in price.
Meanwhile II …. David Blunkett in the “Telegraph” indicate that a Labour general election win would be a “miracle” :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7013676/David-Blunkett-admits-Labour-general-election-victory-would-be-a-miracle.html
90 I imagine that they also get feedback from Labour activists who go out canvassing.
Up to 1950 there was the gloriously named Waterloo constituency, which was mainly Crosby. Presumably it was renamed as the main parts were the two Urban Districts of Great Crosby and Little Crosby which had become the Borough of Crosby. Also in 1950 it was designated a Borough constituency.
As for the basis of the thread, the hung parliament narrative of The Guardian feeds directly into the BBC and will be broadcast accordingly.
Listening to the Today programme this morning, I feel as if the entire Guardian has been read on air.
85. Jack W
Mmmm…. I think not elderly Jacobite.
Not that I am planning on learning any southern jigs, but even if I did want to twiddle my whizzle stick, ring my bells and skip around the maypole, it is simply not possible to learn dance via reading a manual.
You either have the funk. Or you do not.
I have the funk.
There is vermin living in Speaker’s House.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23796408-commons-speaker-john-bercow-determined-to-rid-house-of-vermin.do
BTW is/are vermin singular/plural?
81: In a number of places Cons and Lib Dems work together or are in co-alition. Clegg is complaining about the married tax relief issue and quite rightly so, some Conservatives I know are equally unhappy about it. The philosophy is outdated, unfair and expensive. It produces so many anomalous and unfair situations. I hear this morning the Cons could cut it back to those with children under 3. The financial problem is that to pay for it you have to tax or cut elsewhere. Best peacefully drop the idea altogether, just requires a bit more back tracking, delay in timing etc.
Anthony Wells made some interesting points on one of his threads yesterday . He stated that Yougov do not select randomly the members of their panel they ask to respond to their surveys but preselect to attempt to get a representative sample by age party ID etc . The responses to the 10,000 sample showed that the respondees had a very heavy bias towards male over 55’s and those with a Conservative Party ID and would therefore indicate that there is certainly no shy Tory syndrome working at this time rather the opposite - lots of Conservatives ( many of them posters on here LOL ) itching to complete a Yougov political survey .
86. John L - “… getting alcohol off the supermarket shelf and back into off-licences might be the way to go.”
Totally agree.
However, the devolved Scottish Parliament lacks the powers to do that.
87. Roger
Because we care about our nation. We care about the welfare and happiness of the members of our family.
Anyone who has ever had a person with alcohol problems in their immediate family will know the misery which ensues. All caring people should be concerned about minimising alcohol abuse.
91. “I know plenty of responsible drinkers who buy cheap supermarket lagers for making shandy”
This is the future Stuart!!
……From Bravehearts to nancy boys!
Apologies if already posted..
Telegraph View: The Labour Government is no longer capable of displaying even basic levels of operational competence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7016272/Labour-has-always-penalised-the-family.html
91. James Burdett
But those self-same responsible drinkers would not get “clobbered” by minimum pricing of supermarket lagers!
If they are really only buying it once in a while to make a pleasant lager-shandy, then they will only be paying a few pence extra each month. How will that “clobber” them?
102. Roger
Just you pop open another bottle of Veuve Cliquot old boy.
Cin cin!
This “nancy boy” will stick to his morning coffee addiction.
This might move the market a bit
BNP to stand against Jim Murphy
In one of the most keenly contested constituencies in Scotland and, on the face of it, a rare battle between Labour and the Tories, it looks like a rather unfortunate curveball has been thrown into the mix in East Renfrewshire.
Gary Raikes, party leader of the BNP, is to stand against Jim Murphy in a bid to be a rather unsavoury kingmaker.
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2010/01/bnp-to-stand-against-jim-murphy.html
93. Sean Fear - “I imagine that they also get feedback from Labour activists who go out canvassing.”
Spot on!
To truly understand the increasingly tormented behaviour of Labour politicians, you must understand that they are privy to intelligence NOT IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN: canvass returns + internal polling.
I would just love to see Labour’s canvass returns in Edinburgh for example. It really could be a bloodbath out there.
I wonder how much time Darling will be spending in London between now and May? As little as possible I’d guess.
106 - I can’t see the BNP getting much traction in East Ren, votes would be in 100’s if they are lucky.
Don’t know whether you were answering my question on the previous thread or would have spotted this one anyway, Mike but thanks either way.
I think the comments here are right about the “spiral of silence.”
Of course, there is bound to come a time when pollsters finally adjust enough for the factors which tend to overstate Labour support, or even overdo it. At that point the “Golden Rule” will cease to work. FWIW I think the polls are now in the right ball park.
Julian Glover’s other interesting point is this
“Pollsters have to wonder whether it is better to be in with the herd. That is fine if they herd around an accurate consensus view, as in 2005 – but look what happened in 1992. That the polls all say the same thing does not in itself mean they are right.”
Of course, there is one pollster who is not in with the herd - and that’s Angus Reid. One way or the other we may find that their reputation is either greatly enhanced or badly dented when the results come in.
107. Darling had 3 puff pieces in the paper last week to coincide with his much publicised “secret” visit to RBS, where he was conveniently filmed by the BBC. I think he is acutely aware of his problems in ESW
No just more labour wishful thinking without a shred of evidence to support it
99 (Mark Senior’s comments on YouGov)
Fair comment about internet polling, Mark, although YouGov’s pre-selection of their panels does correct for that.
Now sure, however, that the same point would apply to telephone polls or any other form of non-internet polling.
103 government incompetence (Kristin)
Agreed but you could probably have said much the same about the Blair and Major premierships, and some aspects of Mrs Thatcher’s do not bear close examination.
Governments and even large companies often seem incompetent lately. Whether it is the rise of the management generalist (who can read a balance sheet but knows damn all about making widgets) or the malign (and expensive) influence of consultants, I should not like to say.
39. You’re welcome. I don’t claim to rival Rogerdamus’s skill at movie-gong-prediction, but I can see a Globe/Oscar winner when it kicks me in the emotional goolies: and Avatar is that.
It ticks every box. As I said before, it’s a work of genuine cinematic genius, with a plot that is fashionably eco-sensitive and anti-neo-conservative, it shows you can do without expensive and annoying top-line stars, and it has made billions of dollars around the world (already).
And its 3D thang promises a new era of prosperity for cinemas, as people return to the big screen, for the VERY special effects.
What’s not to love for your average liberal Hollywood bigwig who has a vote in these things?
But if I’d known it was 3/1 I’d have put a tenner on myself! *sigh*
113, ah, that terrible feeling of tipping a winner and not backing it yourself.
70/1 Button was!
*sighs*
104 - When the government finds that the ‘few pence extra’ minimum pricing is doing s0d all to reduce drunkeness, they be pushing it up and up until it affects everyone.
As for the successful Swedish example - isn’t there an old Danish saying: “on Saturday night the streets of Copenhagen are paved with Swedes”, and doesn’t Norway have a massive alcohol and drug problem despite the most punitive taxation in the world?
78
77 - The problem with minimum pricing is that it is hitting the wrong end of the problem. What it would end up doing is clobbering the responsible drinker and the alcohol addict will either engage in further criminality or will channel their addiction into other substances.
Neither point really stands up. If you are drinking “responsibly” you are not drinking enough for price hikes to be more than an irritant. And demand for alcohol is elastic even among alcoholics - getting drunk is a lifestyle decision which you happen to make every day, not a physical addiction which you have to satisfy on pain of death. If drink goes up some people will tend to drink less.
108. Kristin - “I can’t see the BNP getting much traction in East Ren, votes would be in 100’s if they are lucky.”
Agreed.
The BNP managed only 1,013 in the Glasgow NE by-election recently, despite tons of media exposure. Glasgow NE has (by far) the highest number of immigrants of any Scottish constituency.
The key determinant of who wins East Renfrewshire is definitely not the BNP, but rather where the 8659 Lib Dem voters from 2005 cast their vote. I’d guess that at least 3 will shift to Murphy for every 1 who shifts to Cook.
So, even if Murphy loses a chunk of votes to the SNP, and indeed straight to Con, these will be largely compensated by ex-LD voters.
Cook has a very, very tough job on his hands.
100
I do hope that Bucfastleigh’s well known (in fact only) export will be exempt from minimum pricing in Scotland.
98
Ah! if only we had more family values of the Alan Clark kind in the Tory Party, He valued any family that allowed him to sh*g every member.
Has Martin Day seen this?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2010/01/alistair-thompson-next-time-the-country-faces-a-big-freeze-the-government-should-call-on-battalions-.html
Martin if I were you I’d vote Labour/Libdem even, they’re out to get you!
114. Indeed!
The only reason I can see it NOT winning the Oscars is because it is sci-fi, and some of the artier academicians tend to sniff at the genre. But they gave plenty of Oscars to Lord of the Rings (eventually).
And the sheer box office prowess of Avatar (it’s already set to be the biggest money making movie of all time) will probably overcome their prejudices.
3/2 favourite, I’d say (though I have yet to watch its primary rival, the Hurt Locker)
119 re “Has Martin Day seen this?”
For the sake of that PPC’s kneecaps, I hope David Cameron’s not seen it.
117 - surely if the LD vote suffers at the GE why would they switch to Labour? I would have thought that both SNP & Cons would benefit more than SLP.
115. Archroy - “on Saturday night the streets of Copenhagen are paved with Swedes”
That is at least two decades out of date.
Copenhagen is a horrendously expensive trip for Swedes these days. The Danish Krone is pegged to the Euro, while the Swedish Krona is not.
In fact, the only neighbour to Sweden whose currency has depreciated faster than Sweden’s is the United Kingdom! London is now a relatively cheap trip for many Swedes.
Any drunken vikings in Leicester Square?
I think the Tories might have even lost Seant’s vote.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/152399/David-Cameron-We-ll-teach-all-pupils-to-say-no-to-sex
The Guardian are clutching at straws here.
nothing like a bit of bias on radio 4 this morning, discussing BT vision and sky sports/Ofcom. someone said , Would David Cameron if he became PM let this go though for fear of upsetting Rupert Murdoch? (not verbatim)
122, I meant that specifically in relation to East Ren, not in general.
On alcohol pricing, I’m not totally against it but it would only affect one end of the market, there are lots of middle class binge drinkers/alcoholics out there especially in Scotland.
Also support isn’t all it could be especially for those most affected, children of alcoholics.
Glasgow alone has somewhere in the region of 300 AA meetings every week however not one Alateen meeting, unless this has changed recently. Education must be the way to go.
126 - expect it to become more blatant the nearer we get to the GE.
128. Yes all the signs over the last year point to the BBC fighting a very strong rearguard action for Labour & the Lib Dems during the election.
124. Same old Tories and a great photo to boot!
Polly Toynbee famously said the reason the Tory leadership keep talking about the ‘Nanny State’ is because they’re the only ones who had nannies.
118. coldstone
Funny that you should mention Buckfastleigh today coldstone, cos the Times’ Scottish edition has this as its main story today:
‘Bishop attacks morals of monks who brew Scotland’s (15%) tipple of choice’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6991687.ece
Obviously explains Easterross’s loss of memory when it comes to IDS/Howard over Iraq.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243899/Scots-drink-equivalent-46-bottles-vodka-year.html
I hope that’s not you in the string vest?
129 - on yesterdays news re marriage tax plans by Conservatives, both on Beeb news Channel and Radio 5live the item was started thus..
The Liberal Democrats have joined Labour..’short pause’ .. in attacking Tory marrige tax plans.
Stuart @ 131/
Actually it’s in the English edition of the Times as well (though clearly not the main story!)
Bad news from Kabul.
“A massive gun battle erupted in Kabul this morning as suicide squads stormed a series of government buildings close to the presidential palace.
The Taleban claimed 20 suicide bombers had infiltrated the city. ”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan/article6992037.ece
112. Kristin - “… surely if the LD vote suffers at the GE why would they switch to Labour?”
A recent poll showed that Scottish Lib Dem voters favoured Brown as PM over Cameron as PM by a ration of 7 to 1.
Pretty conclusive evidence (as if further evidence were needed!) that the Scottish Lib Dem and Scottish Labour voting base (not to mention the elected politicians) is very closely intertwined.
136. typo - a ratio of 7 to 1
O/T this is an interesting piece re. Greece, the EU and monetary union.
Greece is now being threatened with the kind of treatment meted out in the 19th century to Egypt and Turkey, with its fiscal policy to be run by outsiders in the interests of bondholders and in defiance of democratic norms. And in case it thinks it can escape this mess by exiting EMU, the suggestion is that such a move would trigger its expulsion from the EU as well…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7012297/ECB-prepares-legal-ground-for-euro-rupture-as-Greek-crisis-escalates.html
94. I posted this on UKPollingReport a couple of years ago.
The district of Waterloo was originally named Crosby Seabank, and consisted mostly of sandhills and fields. One of the first major buildings in the area was opened on 18th June, 1816, the first anniversary of the Battle of Waterloo, and was named the “Royal Waterloo Hotel” in honour of the event.
As population increased and the area itself became an identifiable location, it became known as Waterloo. Some of the buildings in Waterloo are replicas of ones found in Waterloo, Belgium, for example, the Potters Barn park buildings – a copy of the farmhouse “La Haye Sainte”, which played an important part in the famous battle. Street names include Wellington Street, Blucher Street and Hougoumont Road.
The area has been home to many famous residents, including the Captain and the owner of the Titanic http://www.crosbytitanic.co.uk
The Confederate Agent and spy, James Dunwoody Bulloch, lived in the area during the American Civil War, planning the naval strategy of the Confederacy. In 1869, his 10-year-old nephew, future-president Theodore Roosevelt, holidayed with him at Waterloo. His diary noted that he had a fight with Jefferson Davis’s son on the Waterloo shore (the children of the Confederate President also lived and were educated in Waterloo)
Incidentally, the name Waterloo was dropped from the original hotel, and it is now known simply as the Royal Hotel. http://www.a1tourism.com/uk/royal.html
On a parliamentary level, prior to 1918 Crosby and Waterloo were part of the Southport constituency, MPs included George Nathanial Curzon and Sir Edward Marshall-Hall. Prior to 1885, it was part of the South-West Lancashire division, and prior to 1868, South Lancashire, when Gladstone was briefly the MP.
by the way CC-T lives in Waterloo at Beach Lawn, in the second from left house in this picture.
http://www.crosbytitanic.co.uk/beach_lawn.htm
Although originally carved out of Crosby, due to the rapid development of Waterloo during the 19th century, its population had overtaken Crosby itself by 1901.
http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.asp?compid=41298
That must have been the reason of the naming of the division as Lancashire Waterloo from 1918 onwards. However the devopment of Crosby carried on, especially between about 1900-1935, so that today I would estimate Crosby(postcode L23) has almost twice the population of Waterloo(L22). The Crosby constituency name first apeared in 1950.
At one time (probably still) it was the most Catholic constituency in the country, a fact which played no small part in Shirley Williams’ victory in 1981.
The charming village of Little Crosby has not altered from the description given in the 1600s, ‘that it had not a beggar; that it had not an alehouse; that it had not a Protestant in it.’
From: A History of the County of Lancaster: Volume 3 (1907), pp. 85-91.
http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.asp?compid=41297
Morning all.
On topic: It seems to me there are a couple of keys to understanding this question:
1) Why is Angus Reid is producing such different results from the others? On the face of it, their methodology seems perfectly reasonable, their samples are large, and they are, by all accounts, a professional and reputable organisation. It would be very good if something knowledgeable about polling could attempt to figure out the broad effect of the various adjustments which different pollsters make, and relate these to the Angus Reid figures.
2) Why are some of the pollsters so volatile? This one nags me. If a volt meter gives very different readings in quick succession, either the voltage has really changed, or the meter is faulty. Some of the large changes (bigger than MOE) which we see don’t appear to be related to any identifiable political developments. Of course, that is subjective, but to my mind it does give rise to doubts about certain of the pollsters, more notably MORI, and also ComRes before they changed their weighting methods.
138. Oh and there’s a nice reference to the ‘new order’ the EU has created as well…
131
Isn’t that amazing! I do hope the Bish. realises that the ‘Tonic’ is what keeps Buckfastleigh Abbey afloat, without it there’d be a lot of Monks thrown out onto the streets, we wouldn’t want that would we.
No jokes about, ‘dirty habits’ please.
136 - thanks Stuart, I must have missed that poll. All I can say is ‘hell mend them’.
132. coldstone - “I hope that’s not you in the string vest?”
No, Easterross is the one behind the bar.
John Loony the link to the individual responses is right - they are the final tab in the spreadsheet
143
Typical Tory making money out of the misery of others, they don’t look that misearable though do they!
From BJ’s column,
It’s like our joy in the Iris Robinson story. We wouldn’t be so thrilled to discover her in bed with a 19 year-old if she hadn’t spent all those years ranting drearily on about family values.
Beware the family values trap, when any politician starts waffling on about them, you know the sword is about to drop.
36 John L. 36. “Final digit randomisation of phone numbers is pretty much guaranteed to over-sample Labour supporters which is why the pollsters need to weight so heavily their results.
Better-off people are more likely to go ex-directory, so the phone book contains an artificially high proportion of Labour voters. Randomising the final digit cannot overcome this bias because phone numbers are assigned not randomly but in geographic blocks, as are houses.”
John, that is not the case. Random Digit Dialling does not work in this way. All phones are included in the RDD sample - as all final three digit combinations in the area are generated. The firms doing the sampling ‘pulse’ the line to see whether it is live. No live lines are excluded due to TPS as Market Research is currently exempt.
The biggest problem for telephone pollsters is age - as older people are more likely to be in, to have landlines and to answer surveys. This has the effect of favouring ‘traditional’ voters - which can be either Labour or the Conservatives depending on the area. Telephone political polls’ raw data also tends to be skewed towards the AB socio-economic groups as they are more likely to take an interest.
As such, the Conservatives are usually over represented in telephone polls’ raw data.
Don’t know if this has already been posted, but the IPCC have been caught including unfounded speculation in one of their reports:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8387737.stm
”The IPCC relied on three documents to arrive at 2035 as the “outer year” for shrinkage of glaciers.
They are: a 2005 World Wide Fund for Nature report on glaciers; a 1996 Unesco document on hydrology; and a 1999 news report in New Scientist.
Incidentally, none of these documents have been reviewed by peer professionals, which is what the IPCC is mandated to be doing. ”
Mike, you are right to say that there is not yet any evidence that Labour are being understated in the polls, though of course the newest pollster - Angus Reid, who give consistently the lowest shares to Labour - have yet to be tested in an election.
Also, it should be noted that this is the classic sort of black swan event that won’t happen until it happens, but the fact that it hasn’t happened yet is not evidence that it cannot happen ever.
It’s worth considering what circumstances would lead to Labour being understated in the polls:
1. A change in the typical sample picked up by telephone polling, which leads to fewer Labour supporters being picked up than has previously been the case. It’s hard to think what this change might be, and unlikely that it would happen suddenly.
2. For it to become toxic to admit to intending to vote Labour. If not now, when?
What is particularly interesting is that, despite all the attempts to improve methods over the years, the pollsters errors are not evenly distributed around the final result. Hence the golden rule. Surely, eventually, one or more pollsters will end up over-compensating faster than new pro-Labour biases can crop up in their samples?
It’s possible to overestimate the level of knowledge by senior politicians on the state of play - I generally hear about polls before and in more detail than colleagues, including Cabinet colleagues, because I follow pb.com. There’s lots of exchanges of anecdotes, of course, which nearly always run the same way:
“How are things in your patch?”
“Well, actually rather better than you’d think. We went out of Sautrday and reception was quite good.”
“Hmm, hard to be sure if people are telling the truth.”
“Yes!” (shrug)
I don’t know any colleague who finds the doorstep reception worse than the polls, and lots like me who find it better (with all the usual caveats - basically we compare current canvassing with previous canvassing of the same people, which does reduce the ‘only being polite’ problem). But we’re mindful of MPs in the past who were sure they’d be OK and weren’t, so we’re genuinely not sure what to make of it.
However, Cabinet ministers are preoccupied with their briefs (and intermittently with the Hoon/Hewitt sort of thing) and they tend to have safe seats and actually follow these things less closely than backbenchers in marginals. We do see internal polling but it doesn’t tell you more about the topline data than external poling - it just enables you to ask interesting secondaries.
149. NPMP - “However, Cabinet ministers… tend to have safe seats and actually follow these things less closely than backbenchers in marginals.”
Alistair Darling?
Jim Murphy?
Dougie Alexander?
Oh yes, these guys don’t pay the blindest bit of attention to canvass returns or opinion polls. They are home n dry. Just “getting on with the job”.
Aye, right!
117. Stuart “The key determinant of who wins East Renfrewshire is definitely not the BNP, but rather where the 8659 Lib Dem voters from 2005 cast their vote. I’d guess that at least 3 will shift to Murphy for every 1 who shifts to Cook.”
This is the same argument tim uses for his claim that Alistair Darling’s seat is safe; that the people who voted Lib Dem last time will vote Labour this time.
Why are they not going to vote Lib Dem?
147. Posted yesterday, but there is an interesting follow up
http://www.talkcarswell.com/show.aspx?id=1253
[13] - Certainly the Angus Reid share for Labour seems notably lower and notably consistent.
Due to random sampling effects one would expect a minimum amount of variability in the figures. The notably consistent figures from Angus Reid will eventually become statistically unlikely if they continue. If that happened it would raise a doubt about their methodology.
150: Stuart - what part of the phrase “tend to” do you have difficulty with? There are, as you say, exceptions!
I can’t believe tha no one has posted about Jackie Ashley’s column in the Grauniad.
The last para is great.
An unnamed Labour minister saying “We’re F*cked, f*cked, absolutely f*cked”
paraphrased and moderated to get round the filter
On topic, I’d have thought it would be quite hard for us to figure out any systematic bias in the polls - the pollsters should be better than us at this stuff, and if they thought there was systematic bias one way or the other, presumably they’d fix it. But I guess there are two questions we could usefully ask:
1) Are there any perverse incentives that might push pollsters to weight their results one way or the other? The article mentions the “safety in numbers” aspect, which might make the pollsters clump together and make the situation look more settled than it actually is. Are there any others?
2) Is the coming election inherently harder to predict than the most recent ones? For example, if you think that it’s going to be a very change-y election and we haven’t had anything like it for a a couple of decades so nobody knows what the hell’s going on, you might think there’s a good chance that the pollsters are going to get it systematically wrong. That might mean there’s more value in the outer ranges in either direction - Labour majority or Tory landslide.
154. I imagine Stuart wouldn’t have a problem with the phrase in other contexts, e.g. ‘Nick Palmer’s posts ‘tend to’ consist of complacent-sounding spin’
155 Link
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/17/election-labour-wreckage-coup-brown
155
Was just about to!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/17/election-labour-wreckage-coup-brown
re 146. “As such, the Conservatives are usually over represented in telephone polls’ raw data.”
Not so Paul. Past Labour voters are almost always the group that is over-represented. In recent times the proportion has been at about 44% - compared with the 36% that actually voted for the party in 2005.
Just see the final page of this dataset from last week’s Populus poll.
http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-100110-The-Times-The-Times-Poll—January-2010.pdf
YouGov reckon they show the Tories more accurately because people are not shy to reply through a computer screen where they may be reluctant to do so face to face. But this is equally true of shy Labour voters too, surely.
So the real effect will be to better represent whichever party has the shyer voters.
So by now is that boosting the Labour figure to more representative levels? If so then the YouGov assumption, which is their only way of dealing with the ’spiral of silence’, is incorrect. What is the effect?
Put that with the lack of any way of dealing with turnout, and the omission from their panel of those core voters of all parties who are not capable, open to or prepared for internet polling and there are holes in the methodology’s defences.
Lastly I would challenge two YouGov assumptions.
First, the belief that people are automatically less ’shy’ in front of a computer screen. They are still known to the respondent, they are not even anonymous as they would be in the street, and the social norms will still apply?
Secondly, being prepared to complete a questionnaire is assumed to equate to a certainty to vote. Why?
155 “An unnamed Labour minister saying “We’re F*cked, f*cked, absolutely f*cked””
What, fighting under the stirring banner of “Gordon Brown: Five More Years!”? How can that be?
Mike, any chance we could get somebody from Angus Reid to write a thread and answer questions about what they’re getting? Specifically, nobody here seems to be able to explain the lack of variability - which even extends to the numbers they’re getting for minor parties like the Greens and the UKIP. Presumably Angus Reid have a theory or two - it would be interesting to hear it.
No comment from the red flag brigade on Ashley’s column?
How strange
The juicy bit, hope it gets through the filtet
Jacki Ashley Guardian 18 Jan
Is it all hopeless? Probably, although ministers are pinning their hopes on economic figures later this month that may finally show the recession is ending. But one leading minister, asked for an assessment following the attempted coup, says simply: “We are fucked. We are so fucked, completely and utterly fucked.” Just now, that is a pretty sober assessment
Re. Polls. IMO These past voter weightings/ spiral of silence adjustments (aka fudge factors) are just the sort of thing that would land you on Fox News if you were working on climate change data. V. dodgy.
In the end you may as well just get people to predict the result and dispense with the survey.
Aww come on Mike release comment 165 I’m only repeating what’s in the MSM
150 I know it was a different era but if you have ever read the Crossman diaries , whilst he was a minister he became completely detached from ehat was happening in the outside world of byelections and the annual local elections .
Nick Clegg does not exist for Lib Dems in Dumfrieshires, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
I have just received a Lib Dem election pamphlet for this constituency, which is the only Conservative seat in Scotland, held by David Mundell
The headline is
“Kennedy back Bhatia to WIN
the pollsters should be better than us at this stuff, and if they thought there was systematic bias one way or the other, presumably they’d fix it.
by Edmund in Tokyo January 18th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Not so sure about that, it took a real bloodbath for the correction made after 1997. It is also notable that ComRes recently changed it methodology on a weekly basis - or so it felt - while still presenting their polls as viable.
MORI changed its methods and is still erratic - and Jonathan they are the best exhibit to show why statistical smoothing is essential if a poll is to be useful.
The YouGov panel system may be susceptible to aging and that may be one reason why the other internet pollsters has such different results. ARPO’s panel is newer.
On Topic:
I’ve said it before, but I think it is noticable that the majority of people who in any way optimistic about Labours chances are commentators, who are generally going on polling etc.
Nick Palmer apart, the most pessimistic people seem to be Labour activists, who are actually going out knocking on doors and talking to people. They all seem very down at the moment from what I have seen.
I know which group I would take most account of on this matter.
163. The other interesting question is whether Angus Reid polls tend to be unusually stable in other countries.
Here is the polling data for Canada. Unfortunately I don’t have the time to plot the Angus Reid numbers against the other pollsters’, but if anyone else wants to do it then please go ahead!
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.php
Nick Clegg does not exist for Lib Dems in Dumfrieshires, Clydesdale and Tweeddale …
I have just received a Lib Dem election pamphlet for this constituency, which is the only Conservative seat in Scotland, held by David Mundell
The headline is
“Kennedy back Bhatia to WIN
Respected former Liberal Democrat Leader Charles Kennedy MP has offered his backing to local LibDem PPC Catriona Bhatia.”
The accompanying photograph shows Charles Kennedy with Catriona Bhatia, holding a jar of Moffat Toffee between them. Kennedy had come to Moffat to speak on her behalf, according to the text.
The headline on the reverse is:
TAX CUTS FROM THE LIBDEMS
It is accompanied by a photograph of Catrional Bhatia with Vince Cable
Poor Nick Clegg - airbrushed out of existence!
The final photograph is of her standing beside a poster which says
“It’s a Two Horse Race”
That’s interesting, since the results last time were over 16000 for the Conservatives, 14,400 for Labour and 9,000 odd for the LibDems, with the SNP fourth on 4000 odd.
167. And this is part of the reason why Governments crash and burn. Ministers and MPs get so embroiled in their own little world they fail to recognise what is going on and wrong around them. The problem is worse when we have as now poor quality MPs (some of whom appear to be semi-numerate) and do not have contact with the outside world through business and similar interests.
165 Jonathan - On the other hand, in aggregate polls (with their adjustments) have been pretty good in practice. In the US presidentials, they were an extremely good guide, right down to individual state level.
Of course, in the UK a tiny error in the vote shares will be magnified into a big error in the seat predictions. That makes it harder.
153. timothy zebras, good to see you.
Any comment on the BBC news item linked above:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8387737.stm
How is de bone through de nose? You still doing de witch doctorin’? You still de juju science warming man. Mistah jesus he come mixamax. Glacier he go, glacier fellah he go melty melty.
The detailed data from the SNP/Yougov poll is a good example of the Yougov sampling problems . Males over 55 were oversampled by 46% , respondents with a Conservative party ID were oversampled by 39% and those with a LibDem party ID undersampled by 33% . The weighted results do adjust down the Conservative voters but only by 18% but very strangely and inexplicably also reduce the LibDem voters by 3% .
Minor F1: noticed Hamilton’s started drifting upwards. He’s now 4.7 to Alonso’s 5.
Even with Schumacher returning, Hamilton and Alonso have remained firmly in 1st and 2nd place respectively. Wonder if there’s a reason for Hamilton’s drift.
160 If you look Mike - the Tories are over represented also - which was my point - that both Labour and the Tories are over represented in telephone samples - it is the Liberal Democrats previous that are systematically under sampled in telephone polls.
146 “This has the effect of favouring ‘traditional’ voters - which can be either Labour or the Conservatives depending on the area.”
My point was that the Conservatives are not undersampled, and the reasons that there are differences in sampling are not due to higher socio-economic groups not being in the phone book.
Good Morning sunbathers after the snow.
Two major things are happening this week that I think are of major importance.
One happened yesterday with the result of the first part of the Ukrainian Election; Ukraine is headed once again into the comfortable arm’s ofMother Russia:
“Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko, the one-time hero of the Orange Revolution, has been eliminated from the country’s presidential election.
A run-off will be held on 7 February after no candidate won 50% of the vote.
With three quarters of votes counted, the president had won only about 5%. Former PM Viktor Yanukovych led current PM Yulia Tymoshenko by some 36% to 25%.
On opposing sides of the Orange Revolution in 2004 and 2005, both now favour closer ties with Russia.”
Secondly tomorrow in Massachusetts There is likely to be an upset as a Republican takes Edward Kennedy’s old seat to the Senate:
“Washington (CNN) - Multiple advisers to President Obama have privately told party officials that they believe Democrat Martha Coakley is going to lose Tuesday’s special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat held by the late Ted Kennedy for more than 40 years, several Democratic sources told CNN Sunday.
The sources added that the advisers are still hopeful that Obama’s visit to Massachusetts on Sunday - coupled with a late push by Democratic activists - could help Coakley pull out a narrow victory in an increasingly tight race against Republican state Sen. Scott Brown.
However, the presidential advisers have grown increasingly pessimistic in the last three days about Coakley’s chances after a series of missteps by the candidate, sources said.”
So, apart from our polling up’s and downs, the real exciting news this week is coming from abroad.
Unless Gordo calls an immediate GE, that is, and I cant see him doing that.
New Gordo poster out!
http://yfrog.com/18airbrushj
Jack Peterson @171 “The other interesting question is whether Angus Reid polls tend to be unusually stable in other countries.”
Good thinking, and thanks for posting that link.
Just scanning the Angus Reid numbers for Canada without doing anything systematic, they look much more like a normal poll, and less like the sampling-error-defying numbers they’re getting for the UK. Maybe they’re experimenting on us?
Sky Ed correspondent refers to Gordon Blair. Dismisses Cameron’s educational plans as phoney war electioneering.It’s not just the BBC.
Morning all,
139. Richard Nabavi
Richard I agree with you that ARPO polls are becoming a bit off an odd bird. I’d also like to understand why they have the left of centre vote significantly lower than the rest of the polls.
Furthermore I’d also like to understand how they and Yougov can have produced a Conservative share of 40% in 8 consecutive polls (ignoring the Sun’s salami slicing). It seems improbable for me to get that sort of result through random sampling everytime.
On the volatility of the polls I’m more relaxed these days. Mori and Comres seem to have recovered their consistency and there are a number of other factors in play.
1) The expenses debacle completely disrupted the natural structure of the polls in particular driving down the combined vote share of left of centre parties. Generally, the combined left of centre vote is in the range of 45-50%. However, in the May to September period it barely reached those scales sitting in a range of 35-44%. Since conference season the combined total is reasonably stable (in the 45-50% range) in almost all polls (excluding ARPO) since the party conference season. That said it will have taken time for all the expenses protest vote to unwind and whilst it is still unwinding there is a chance of volatility. I get the feeling we are getting to the end of the unwind now…
2) There also seems to be volatility between Libdem and Labour voters but it nearly always results in a combined share of 45-50%.
3) Re Mori (& Populus). Some polls are more regular than others. Mori is monthly whereas the others are more frequent. Consequently the potential for larger shifts is greater
4) Again re Mori they also headline only the certain to vote figures instead of the 6 or 7-10 figures and therefore this potentially encourages ‘volatility’
5) As highlighted by yourself, ARPO have now entered the fray and whilst their figures are more than stable (perhaps a little too stable?), being slightly out of kilter with the rest they increase the impression of volatility.
6) Sample size will also affect volatility. Smaller polls potentially would be more prone to volatility (greater MOE).
Now having written this it has occurred to me that there is an potential underlying political reason for much of the volatility as it applies moreso to the left than the right. That is that neither Labour or the Libdems have sealed the deal with their voters and their votes are still up for grabs? There is a lot of evidence in the polls to tell us this. So perhaps a lot of it is just moment to moment noise…..
182 - Of course it’s not just the BBC. EVERYONE is out to get you!
139. Richard Nabavi you absolutely right about some of the pollsters and some of their results. Your remark about faulty meters could be close to the truth, and some I believe to be tainted.
Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get me.
186 - At least you are not alone. There must be about 10 to 15 regular Tory posters who all firmly believe that the BBC is an anti-Tory conspiracy and that Sky is also an anti-Tory conspiracy. Presumably they dont watch ITV or they would be convinced that it too was an anti-Tory conspiracy.
They’re out to get me was sung by me last night in Canada….
Has anyone done any analysis on how the polls do when predicted Labour and LD votes are combined?
My gut feeling is that much of the Labour and LD vote is anti-Tory rather than pro either of these parties. People say Labour in poll uesitons when they mean not Tory and when they take a look at their constituency numbers their vote changes accordingly, which is why the Labour numbers are often much lower come eleciton day and the LD ones are higher.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
187 - And that the Daily Telegraph is also anti-Tory. And to think these people will be running the country in six months time.
187 Some even appear to believe that the Tory party is an anti Tory conspiracy. The Hefferlumpettes?
187, Sky change. Right now they’re anti-Tory.
The BBC is clearly leftist. ITV is rightist.
Incidentally is anyone else having problems loading UKPR?
On the volatility of these polls again, one thing I wonder - but don’t know enough about statistics to figure out - is what weighting does to the margins of error on these polls.
The polls all claim margins of error due to sampling error like “3%” for a typical sample of 1000 or so, but if you weight your sample by - say - previous vote, and don’t people change from their previous vote very much, I’d have thought your actual margin of error would be lower, and the “3%” numbers wouldn’t be very meaningful.
test again again
SO no comment on the column in your leftist rag this morning?
187 Neil - I don’t think any serious observer could possibly continue to deny that the BBC has an anti-Tory bias. There are just far too many well-documented examples, many of them not even matters of opinion (such as the make-up of panels and the number of times different politicians are interrupted in interviews).
It would be fascinating to carry out an opinion poll as to the political preferences of BBC employees. I suspect that the results would be shocking for a state broadcaster which has a legal duty to be impartial.
jsfl @ 192: My hosts are upgrading all their servers this morning, it was supposed to be all up and happy again by now. I’m waiting for an update but hopefully it shouldn’t be too long.
196 - “the number of times different politicians are interrupted in interviews”
Really?! You count these?? Really?! Sigh…
Two big election stories this morning.
Cameron will not announce what his marriage policy is before the election it’s reported
Teachers will have their status risen over a genertion by Michael Gove saying their status has risen, for a generation.
More to follow…
196, I’m not sure that would be the case, nor would it be meaningful if it were. It doesn’t matter what the cleaners, canteen staff or underlings think. What matters are the views of editors, producers and presenters. There I think you would see a pretty leftist view of the world.
188. Southam
See my post at 183. Lab / Libdem share tends to sit in the 45-50% vote share range (other than with ARPO). It was in that range at the start of the 2009 and again at the end of the year.
However, it was more than decimated by the expenses debacle and throughout the summer almost exclusively sat in the 35-44% range. Much of the volatility this year I believe is as a result of the expenses debacle.
197. Thanks Anthony
133 I heard part of the R5 discussion last night on the Conservatives’ proposed tax break for married/civil partnership couples. Philip Hammond gave a sound defence of the Conservative position, but what I found most interesting was Stephen Nolan’s lines of questioning. This started by being highly critical of the idea. But by the end of the interview, he was positively wetting himself trying to find out it would be worth. So no high-minded opposition there.
Overall (including the discussion following the session with Hammond), I had the impression that the tax break could prove very attractive, whatever the present grumbles from currently unmarried couples. Which is presumably the Conservatives’ intention.
And we’re to watch Dave this week over this story.
But while viewers are likely to benefit from a price war that would challenge the hold Sky has had since it bought its first football rights in 1992, Ofcom’s move could present David Cameron with a major headache.
If the Conservative leader wins the general election, the timing of Ofcom’s intervention in sports broadcasting would result in one of his first choices as prime minister being whether to take the unprecedented step of overturning the decision of an independent regulator or to let it stand and risk infuriating the Murdoch empire, one of his party’s most powerful supporters.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/jan/17/tv-sport-media-ofcom-sky
[175] - When I read that news story in December the 2035 date came as a surprise to me.
I’d always thought [and still do], from previous things I’d read, that the Himalayan glaciers would be at risk if global temperatures went higher than 4K above pre-industrial. Even then it would take at least a number of decades for the melt to occur.
So, really, the 2035 date always had to be wrong, given that it was less than 30 years from the date of publication. If it were true, or even had been thought to be true by the authors, then it would:
(a) have been too late to avoid it and
(b) have received a lot more prominence in press releases surrounding the IPCC report, given the importance of Himalayan glaciers for Chinese and Indian agriculture.
Mistakes like this are unfortunate, but don’t signify anything. You don’t seem to care about that, though, just a good excuse for a joke. Well, if it makes you happy..
Seems Mrs Sion Simon has been given the boot by Team Gordo in yet another reshuffle of the spin team,
http://order-order.com/2010/01/18/the-toughest-job-in-politics/
196. My guess would be that among current affairs-related personnel the combined left-wing vote preference would be 70%+
198 Neil - I have asked the BBC to count them in a complaint regarding two successive interviews (with Brown and Cameron). Basically, Brown was allowed to give a party political broadcast virtually without interruption, Cameron was hardly able to get half a sentence out before being interrupted. The interviews were sufficiently long for this to be a systematic effect.
Naturally the BBC didn’t bother to investigate my complaint, and just spouted the usual flim-flam.
204 tim
As you know, Cameron has already wired into ofcom. this is part of ofcom’s deathwish.
tim, as you’re so good at reposting stories again and again, any comment of what an unnamed Liebore minister said in Jackie Ashley’s column in the Gauniad today?
Quote
Is it all hopeless? Probably, although ministers are pinning their hopes on economic figures later this month that may finally show the recession is ending. But one leading minister, asked for an assessment following the attempted coup, says simply: “We are f*cked. We are so f*cked, completely and utterly f*cked.” Just now, that is a pretty sober assessment
208 - Oh dear…
tim @204: But on the plus side for Cameron, the ability to do something would hurt Murdoch immediately after the election gives him quite a bit of leverage in making sure Murdoch prints what he wants _before_ the election, which is presumably what Cameron cares about the most…
208, you’re being unfair, Mr. Nabavi. Marr asked some very difficult question of Brown, such as:
“Does Your Excellency have anything He wishes to share with the nation?”
“Your socks are marvellous, sir. Might one enquire from whence they are purchased?”
“David Cameron is a privileged elitist aristocrat. How will you beat him to achieve a historic and glorious fourth term?”
210. I wonder if that minister was the MP for Exeter?
>>>>> Betting Post>>>>>>
Looking at the PB predictions from the thread last night, I see there is a consensus around a May 6th Election.
Except in one case.
SeanT is forecasting a 16th April Election.
Which is a Friday.
Does he have inside information?
I think a technical end to the recession WILL narrow the poll leads - but not by much (3% max) and not for long (3 or 4 weeks max).
re 163. I’ll ask Angus Reid if they want to do this.
My view on their consistency is that there’s probably a lot less movement going on than is sometimes apparent.
But their trends with the Tories have been the same as all the other firms. AR saw a dip in Tory support in November which recovered and is now back at 40%.
I’m not sure that their harsh past vote recall formula without any allowance for false recall works as well in the UK as it does in Canada. Using the ICM formula Labour would be 2-3 points higher with AR.
In one sense it’s good to have a pollster that might be understating Labour to balance out the others that have a record of overstatement.
In forecasting the election, anyway, it’s the Tory share that matters most.
215 runnymeade,
It could be the MP for ESW, he has a habit of speaking the unpalatable truth sometimes
212 - I’m sure Jeremy Hunt will bring his rugged toughness to the table (the fact that the Sun could destroy his career over his expenses rulebreaking will be totally irrelevant I’m sure) and Dave of course has the experience gained with ITV Digital and its sports experience to bring to the party.
[193] - The polls all claim margins of error due to sampling error like “3%” for a typical sample of 1000 or so, but if you weight your sample by - say - previous vote, and don’t people change from their previous vote very much, I’d have thought your actual margin of error would be lower, and the “3%” numbers wouldn’t be very meaningful.
I think it works in the other direction. The “margin of error” is solely due to sample size, and so ignores other possible sources of error or bias. It’s purely to do with the possibility of randomly finding more of one group than another.
What concerns us is that, when the pollsters weight by the 2005GE result, it is the number of people in the switchers groups that determine the headline numbers. Weighting by party ID, or 200%GE vote can’t prevent these numbers being subject to sampling error.
However, because they’ve downweighted some responses, they’ve effectively reduced the size of their sample, so the margin of error is actually larger than that quoted.
tim it would allow for a full week of debate after a 10th March budget with dissolution on the 18th
203 Another interesting thing is HYS - almost all of the first 4/5 pages of most recommended comments are very pro marriage, pro tax incentive, pissed off singles with no kids paying for teenage single mums.
Oh and universal WTF re Balls and his ’social engineering’ criticism.
I can only imagine that the Tories private polling has been telling them this for a while…
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thread.jspa?sortBy=2&forumID=7416&edition=1&ttl=20100118113214&#paginator
jsfl @ 202: Back up again now (though it’ll be down for half an hour again somepoint later today).
I’ve used the time productively with a nice post about Julian Glover’s article http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2422
195 - I read The Times.
175 SeanT
221 - I think Sean should explain his reasoning for a friday election.
Does he hope it will suppress the Muslim vote?
223 Excellent article by Anthony Wells - well worth following the link.
Nicely balanced article by The Orange Party today.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/its-grim-up-noth.html
196
BBC employees descriptions of themselves on Facebook are such a poll of sorts. They show a huge majority for “left/liberal” leaning, although I can’t find the link or remember the exact words right now.
I will have another look
Here we go
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-490047/Facebook-reveals-BBC-liberal-hotbed.html
Just been listening to reaction to Cameron’s teacher thingy on R5.
There seemed to be more people than I expected moaning that having a crap degree shouldn’t matter. It had a real ring of ‘all must have prizes’ to it. If someone hasn’t achieved in their studies immediately before applying to be a teacher - it sounds like they think it may be a cushy billet.
I’d be all in favour of Cameron helping those who’ve done well career wise to make the transition without a degree at all - that’d be much more real world/inspirational to the kids. We had a couple of teachers at my school who had very successful lives before and we took a lot more notice of them.
226. lol. I fess up. I filled in the pb online poll with a certain… shall we say…. expeditiousness. I think I did it in 35 seconds. I was trying to apply the same principle I use in thriller-writing.
Faster is better.
I’m also guessing that if you add up the number of MPs I awarded each party, they probably don’t match the number of MPs in the Commons.
So I am obviously expecting quite an unusual election.
One of my ‘things’ is that GE Polls should be open on Friday and Saturday, to give people maximum opportunity to vote. Counting to start 10am on Sunday and the elected government can officially start work on Monday morning.
Obviously this wouldn’t be to everyone’s taste and would require security arrangements and the like.
230. It seems my guesstimate upthread wasn’t a bad one, then.
O/T
Strauss and Anderson rested for the Bangladesh tour. Collingwood ODI captain, Cook Test Captain.
http://www.cricinfo.com/bdeshveng2010/content/current/story/444883.html
O/T did anyone hear Gove refer to Cameron as “the next Prime Minister” this morning? Chickens, count, anyone?
233 I agree - why a Thursday is beyond me these days - the change in behaviour has been massive yet this is still the process.
I’d like to see polling stations in supermarkets too - the car park if necessary, that’d make a huge difference for the not very engaged - particularly if there was a campaign in-store to tell everyone it was happening.
236 Tabman - No, he’s just been following the PB131 predictions.
236 Well it makes a change from Boulton and Marr doing it
237 Plato - Yes, and in some constituencies they could run a ‘Place one vote, get another free’ promotion.
237
Convenience is something to aim for, but would require computerised registers. If you had computerised registers you would be able to vote anywhere in the constituency, eg at the commuter rail station, school, Supermarket, etc.
236 - You think Brown will resign and there will be an interim Labour PM before Cameron wins the election? Possible, but unlikely.
More on the Cameron Marriage stuff.
(the next link contains a snogging couple)
No less than Tony Blair, his occasional role model, David Cameron has an “irreducible core” of beliefs: convictions so close to his heart that they are non-negotiable. And none is more deeply-felt than his faith in marriage as the cornerstone of society. His belief in the institution is neither aggressive in character or puritanical in origin. But it is the hard kernel of his politics.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23796493-david-camerons-love-of-marriage-faces-its-greatest-test.do
But wait.
The CSJ says limiting the tax break to families with children under three would cost just £600m. That’s still quite pricey, but it’s a lot cheaper than £4.9bn. The CSJ says it would be worth an extra £20 a week to some couples.
OK thats clear then.
But wait…
“We do not believe that this will incentivise marriage, nor should it, but it may encourage more couples to make the transition from cohabitation to marriage and thereby increase the stability of their relationship,” it claims.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/jan/18/david-cameron-recognise-marriage
Can someone explain?
(To Cameron preferably)
re 236. You are right. Labour could suddenly come to its sense and put Ed Balls into the job to fight the election.
“There seemed to be more people than I expected moaning that having a crap degree shouldn’t matter.”
Presumably the ones with a crap degree hoping to slum it in teaching.
238, 9, 42 - there’s an interesting paradox here, which is the more that senior Tories take it for granted, the more likely people well get irked enough so that it doesn’t happen.
217 It’d be fascinating to read - hope they say yes.
One thing I’ve noticed about AR political and retail surveys is the difference in question tone. I find myself being more likely to respond with my heart rather than my head.
Is this something others have noticed?
YouGov on the otherhand is so dry and uninterestingly presented that I’m tempted to click away.
Teaching may require lots of qualities but a minimum 2.2, even in a comp, is required to be able to teach a subject with adequate knowledge as Gove proposes.
Anthony Wells that is an interesting article but it doesn’t address the issue of turnout for YouGov nor whether there is an aging panel syndrome nor whether an internet poll will connect with the core vote sufficiently.
What evidence does YouGov have that those who complete an online questionnaire are certain to vote? How can you be sure there is no ’shy’ voter syndrome effecting your polls? The voter identification given cannot be certified, can it?
And YouGov ‘often’ weight for past vote but not, therefore, always. When, why, what does this do to a trend of results?
@235: Cook certainly deserves it. I hope it gives him a taste for the responsibility.
232. SeanT: I’m also guessing that if you add up the number of MPs I awarded each party, they probably don’t match the number of MPs in the Commons.
You predicted C 398, Lab 206, LD 46, SNP 12, PC 3, Oth 1 for a GB total of 666. This was the second highest; Dylan Owens (a lurker?) managed 691. The lowest was 500.
The most common total was 632, 28 entrants ensuring they got the right total. 24 entrants totalled 631, presumably assuming that Bercow wouldn’t get counted by the BBC as a Tory (I believe he will).
My first-draft total was 634, so I subtracted one Lab and one C…
@248: Absolutely, it is a necessary but not sufficient qualification (certainly to A-level)
245 - the trashing of the teaching profession began in the 1960s with the trendy lefties and was completed by the Conservatives in the 1980s with the national curriculum. You’re not going to overturn the ridicule with which most of the teaching profession is now held. And lets face it, who would want to give up a solid career in an area that makes money to go into most of today’s schools?
I thought Gove had had at least some state schooling, but his views are hopelessly naive.
Teaching,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC6EGeEc0F0&feature=related
tim of the Thicket seems very exercised by Cameron’s proposal to support marriage. So it must be a winner.
253 - Goves plans were all pre recession.
What is left is essentially saying “Teachers are great” on a tape loop.
Its a bit sad really, he should be in Lansleys job.
250 - Agree and Strauss looked a tired man at the end.
251 - I totalled 631, as 18 NI plus 1 speaker makes 650. But yes, the Beeb might not understand and count Bercow in the Con total.
259 - I can’t work out what it means can you?
Although limiting it to married couples with kids under three may incentivise people to have another child I guess.
Who know.
Agree with others, that’s a very interesting blog by Antony Wells.
258 - exactly. That’s the zeitgeist around the profession and Gove’s warm words aren’t going to make a jot of difference.
196: I don’t know about surveying employees, Richard, but I recall a survey of the pulbic on whether they thought the BBC biased one way or the other. AFAIR the response was balanced between the three options - it’s a while back though. Certainly everyone I know on the Labour side who’s expressed an opinion thinks they’re biased against us! My own view is slightly different - I think they’ve bought into the ‘we see through you politician bastards’ media meme, and they are therefore biased against everyone, and it’s impossible for anyone of any party to get a positive message across.
Well, they will make a jot of difference. Just a jot, mind you.
That’s the heart of the problem - this is one of those slow drip, drip things that will require at least a whole generation to change, probably 2.
231: Plato @ 11:47
Surely the point of requiring a degree is to provide some reasonable guarantee that the teacher actually knows what they are talking about. Once upon a time any degree in, say, mathematics would do that. However, with grade inflation no hitting the Universities as much as the schools that presumption no longer holds good.
Having had to rescue my son from teachers who clearly didn’t know their subject I think that making it a requirement that they do is rather a good idea. I also find it difficult to believe that teachers who are “one chapter ahead” can be inspirational, not least because they can’t answer the tricky questions or put the topic into context.
The idea of turning, or perhaps I should say re-turning, teaching to a desireable profession for the brightest (several teachers at my school inner-London school were PhD’s) needs also to be accompanied by serious salary increases and a reversion to sensible levels of discipline within the classroom.
267 Would like to see someone teach A-level physics on the back of life experience alone. Could have serious comedy value.
261. asod.
They counted Martin as Labour in 2001 and 2005, and I’m certain they’ll count Bercow as a Tory this time, since Bercow (assuming he’s re-elected) will have one Tory and two Labour deputies to maintain the net majority.
Afternoon all!
Just to add to the discussion about Buckfast above, it’s also very popular in NI, apparently if you go to a bar in Lurgan they bring you a glass of ” Buckie!” It is also the tipple of choice for winos in the most staunchly Loyalist areas which is strange as it is made by Catholic monks!
They either don’t know or don’t care!!
265 Nick P it’s impossible for anyone of any party to get a positive message across.
That is a fair point, and one which applies to most of the media. (Oddly, I’d cite the Guardian as less guilty than most in this respect - they’ve run some articles which do a pretty good job at explaining the policies of the different parties).
However: since Labour’s campaigning is entirely negative, the net effect is to reinforce Labour’s message. No one, not even Labour, seems to be trying to provide positive reasons to vote Labour; the entire message is a negative anti-Tory one.
Wishful thinking by Julian Glover. The sort of article we will see more of in the Guardian over the coming months.
Who cares is whoevers being understated, tories are in…..the important part of life is researching our own destiny, no one needs to live only to 80….get with the programme
“Can someone explain?”
Yes. It won’t cause two people who don’t really want to live with each other to get married, but will hopefully encourage those who choose to cohabit to do so, and thus increase their chances of staying together.
272 “That’s Labour’s campaigning is entirely negative”
That’s rubbish. The engagement in Copenhagen and the elderly care reforms are just two big positive policies. Todays social mobility stuff is also positive.
267 “The idea of turning, or perhaps I should say re-turning, teaching to a desireable profession for the brightest (several teachers at my school inner-London school were PhD’s) needs also to be accompanied by serious salary increases and a reversion to sensible levels of discipline within the classroom.”
Nail. Head. Hit. And I didn’t notice either of those points being addressed this morning.
Surely the first requirement for all secondary school teachers is that they are capable of getting A* at GCSE and A level themselves. Maybe they all need to sit the exams as part and parcel of getting their teaching qualification. The skill-set for primary schools is going to be very differemt. I am not sure you eed a degree at all to be very good at teaching 4 and 5 year olds to teach.
“Gove’s warm words aren’t going to make a jot of difference.”
On the contrary- as with marriage, this is all about signaling.
274 - If you believe financial incentives work like that then the first incentive will be for already married couples to have children with a 3 year gap in between, then perhaps to have another child.
264 - Tabman, the subtext for all this of course is what Gove daren’t say - bigger class sizes.
272 - As opposed to “We can’t go on like this”, of course.
273 - agreed. Angus Reid’s findings point the other way - that Labour is over-stated.
277 - Of course, that should read, I am not sure you need a degree at all in order to be very good at teaching 4 and 5 year old kids to read and do their sums.
266 Spot on - this will take a complete shift-change. Re the National Curriculum, I was a school just as it was coming in and it seemed like a really sensible idea.
We had a lot of kids moving from one exam board laundry list to ours and it was really tough on them particularly if this happened a year or two from O levels.
But as with all *good* ideas to have a baseline - it’s morphed into a skipload of centralising micro-management.
257: Tabman @ 12:04
As I recall the National Curriculum was introduced because too many children were leaving primary school unable to read, write and do basic sums, such that when they got to secondary school they just fell further and further behind.
This failure (and it can’t be described as anything else) was seen as the fault of the trendy leftie domination of the educational establishment, particularly the teacher training colleges. In short the teachers could no longer be trusted to do their job.
Unfortunately, instead of tackling the cause and introducing, what was intended as a limited, but very targeted, prescriptive element, the task of implementing the National Curriculum was turned over to the very educational establishment that had caused the problem in the first place. The Conservative education ministers had gone native.
Then Labour got in on the act with its fixation for targets and control. Hence the bureaucratic nightmare we now have, and the situation in relation to pupil’s attainment is now even worse than it was originally, and the teachers are now so bogged down in form filling that we have to have unqualified teaching assistants taking classes because the teachers are too busy filling in forms and assessments.
The Conservatives deserve credit for trying to do something about the bloody mess, but I fear they are going to be too timid to actually do any good.
265. Nick, I’d agree in as far as the Beeb have bought into the ‘baised against politics / politicians’ but you’d surely agree that there’s a strain of Guardian / Independent-type thinking which runs right through the organisation. It might not always be particularly strong and there are obvious counter-examples (Clarkson) but those exceptions merely serve to highlight the norm.
The result is that while they’re not always pro-Labour or Lib Dem, they are nearly always anti-Tory. To the extent that they’re biased against Labour at the moment, part of it is that you’re the government and the media in general is anti-government as part of its anti-politician thinking, and part of it is that Labour is just generating too many bad-news stories to miss.
277 Or even 11/12 yrs olds. I don’t recall being taught anything that couldn’t have been done with a good A level.
On the topic of bias in media outlets, I think the problem is not that there is a bias but that presenters/ commentators/ producers etc do not necessarily admit their political preferences and certainly it is not advertised. Now if their political preferences were tattooed on their foreheads then we could then make an informed assessment based on that.
Seriously, though if these media outlets actually made it clear (as the much criticised Foxnews does) which side each of them is on then it pays people the respect of giving them the choice of whether to take notice of those people or not. Simply there should be greater transparency
A second thing would be to stop the practice of having news presenters acting as political interviewers and commentators. Too often and particularly with Sky I get the feeling that they lack the political insight and understanding to do the job they are required to do (the likes of Botting, Burley and that pontificating old tw@ at breakfast time when Eamonn isn’t on particularly come to mind).
So a Labour councillor is actively campaigning to undermine a Labour cabinet minister in his own constituency in the run-up to a general election just because the cabinet minister in question has a slightly greater sense of proportion on a particular policy issue than does Vote For A Change. A Labour councillor publicly calling a Cabinet minister a hypocrite? What the hell’s going on?
http://tinyurl.com/ybebokt
279 If you accept that, then you will also accept that it will encourage couple with small children to marry too. So quite why you needed it explaining i’m not sure.
HurstLlama January 18th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
Unfortunately a degree doesn’t ensure that there is any expertise in the subject to go with the qualification.
I once interviewed a graduate in computer studies for a job as one of my IT team on which we were dependent, and he didn’t seem to even know what Windows was.
I have also recruited and managed a lot of teachers in my day, and again the qualification has been no guide to classroom performance.
282. SO - correct. But of course the Teachers’ Unions have been working for many years to try to narrow the field of entrants into teaching, presumably with a jealous eye on the restrictive practices and high pay of other ‘professions’…
285 “I don’t recall being taught anything that couldn’t have been done with a good A level.”
Are you sure you really mean that? Forgot the hard stuff?
148 re final digit randomisation (Paul Lloyd)
“Random Digit Dialling does not work in this way. … No live lines are excluded due to TPS as Market Research is currently exempt.”
The issue is not TPS opt-outs but people going ex-directory.
See, for instance, this from Populus:
“Everyone in the country with a landline telephone has an equal random chance of being polled in a Populus telephone survey. Within each region a random sample of telephone numbers is drawn from the entire BT database of domestic telephone numbers. Each number selected has its last digit randomised so as to provide a sample including both listed and unlisted numbers.” [My emphasis]
My point is that using final digit randomisation to overcome the ex-directory problem produces a bias to Labour (as explained at note 36, above).
292 (John L)
forgot the Populus link re final digit randomisation:
http://www.populus.co.uk/polling.html
288 - God knows what the motivation is to be honest.
“We do not believe that this will incentivise marriage, nor should it, but it may encourage more couples to make the transition from cohabitation to marriage and thereby increase the stability of their relationship,” it claims.
On topic: If there is a “shy Labour” factor that would indicate that there is now an embarrassment factor in voting Labour. This, I suspect, is a very difficult thing to judge with primarily anecdotal evidence. In that sphere my Labour-leaning friends/acquaintances are not showing any evidence of this at all. Many on here would believe that voting Labour is something to be ashamed of, but I don’t think we are seeing evidence of this.
So the next question is the accuracy of the pollsters. I’ve just had a look back and the YouGov/Telegraph poll on the eve of the Euro Elections is pretty darned accurate for the results that came out.
287. Rejoice! Labour are heading full-speed back to the internecine warfare and obscurantist factionalism of the 1970s and 1980s…
282 / 290 - Have either of you tried to teach classes of 4 or 5 year olds?
276 Tabman - The Tories have made a very big commitment to restore discipline, to shield teachers from frivolous complaints, and to allow head teachers much more freedom to take the necessary steps to prevent disruption.
As to salary: teachers are actually pretty well paid now. Labour have been poring money in. There is a problem in some subject areas, and Conservative policy is to allow more flexibility so this can be addressed.
gove’s wish list on degrees, fine on paper, but there has not only been grade inflation at ‘a’ level, but also at degree level. i feel sorry for hr teams trying to recruit graduates. it looks ike some populist bulsh1t from the tories.
the difficult area is indiscipline, and the use of appropriate sanctions, but grove also should ask is the present development of super sized comps going to be stopped. it is hard to see how schools with more than 1200 kids work well.
re 292. You’ve made this point before - how should they do it?
I’m at a polling conference on Wednesday and all the main players will be there. If you’ve got a solution I will put it to them.
291 You missed the bit about being 11 or 12 yrs old
A good A level in Physics is more than enough to teach the Principle of Moments, density of air and all those other things - ditto for Biology and Chemistry.
re 219 Tim and Gabble are the prime examples of shy Labour supporters.
277: Southam @ 12:29
I think you are correct in saying that the skills needed to teach at primary school, particularly in the early years, are different from those required at secondary level (and again at A level, but let that pass for the moment).
However, you are terribly wrong if you think that because a person has an A* at maths GCSE they can teach maths at GCSE. That is just another way of saying “on chapter ahead”. Unless one has a greater depth of understanding and knowledge of the subject than required of the best of pupils, and a love for it, one can never, ever be a good teacher, let alone an insipiring one.
271. It is a sad fact that the monks don’t actually make ‘Buckie’ - the ‘wine’ is made by ‘civvies’ round the corner from the Abbey. Oh and the wine is imported before it’s fortified. It is always a bit of a comedown to find out that there isn’t some fat Friar Tuck type, all red nosed and full of joie de vivre making the stuff.
302 Mike Smithson
Poor Richie Rich was even forced to cover up the fact he voted for Tony Blair!
Tony before the popgun firing squad on Fri 29th Jan
in schools today the problem is not teacher’s lack of expertise its either pupils who don’t see the need to respect authority or teachers who cannot impose it (for one reason or another). A good mix of academic teachers AND more ‘keep order well’ types is needed in any school
Did I dream it, or are there figures due out today which will determine whether we came out of recession last quarter?
4 Re Sefton, that prediction sounds reasonable, it’s going to be a very an interesting seat. Lib Dems talking their chances up as usual, but I reckon it’s just hot air.
Another great article on SNPtacticalvoting, easily my favourite Scots blog, for some reason I can’t link directly to the article which is called “Lib Dems and their bar charts”:
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/
He highlights their claims that their opponents have “already admitted they cannot win here” (they did that in a council election I was involved with too), using bar charts based on the wrong type of election (or the number of councillors in a borough rather than votes in that ward, or based on their own canvass returns), and various other dishonest tactics.
He concludes with a statement that I am in complete agreement with: “I remain of the opinion that, with their leaflets, the Lib Dems are straddling the line between being mischievous and being downright unlawful with their claims. “
tim, which of your many obsessions had ended up hurting the tories over the past 12 months?
You still labour under the impression that your opinion is matched by the general public, it isn’t. The general public do not have the same OCD that you seem to struggle with.
And conversely - Labour want to get people into the professions based on how poor they are
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/18/labour-tells-top-professions-poor-people
“Top professions will be told to open their doors to people from poorer backgrounds today, as Gordon Brown steps up his efforts to portray Labour as the party of aspiration.
A new body is to be set up in an attempt to smash a “closed shop” mentality identified last year in Unleashing Aspiration, a government-commissioned report by the Panel on Fair Access to the Professions, led by former cabinet minister Alan Milburn.
Milburn’s report, published last year, warned that elitism risked creating a “forgotten middle-class” generation and wrecking the British economy”
301 Plato
the “easy stuff” of 13 years ago is the “hard stuff” of today thanks to intensive dumbing down by this government
The U.K. government’s AAA credit rating is “extremely vulnerable” and the economic and political situation “highly toxic,” Standard Life, one of the U.K.’s largest money-management firms, warned Monday.
The firm is the latest asset manager to express concern about the U.K.’s ballooning public-sector debt and the risk that it will lose its status as one of the world’s most creditworthy borrowers. According to its web site, Standard Life manages GBP156.5 billion of assets.
Earlier this month, leading bond-investor Pacific Investment Management Co said there is an 80% chance that the U.K. government will be downgraded if its deficit reduction plans remain as they are.
299 With a 1st in Physics and PhD in Biophysics I quite fancy a spot at teaching primary kids. It would be quite fun to have the little blighters play with the Riemann Curvature Tensor or model action potentials in real neural networks. I suspect it’s possible. Certainly, easier than you think. Would be a boon for showy parents.
298 - As you know I have a lot of respect for Gove, but what is going on now is a bit sad to be honest.
Two years ago his whole philosphy was based on the Swedish model, competition between schools smaller class sizes, like in the Independent Sector.
Of course that is very expensive and involves surplus capacity,
so what we have now is the Finnish rather than Swedish model.
This is based on one piece of research that shows bigger classes can work, so is cheaper.
He is unlikely to sell it as bigger classes because that will
a.Be a vote loser.
b.Question the entire philosophy of the Independent Sector where most Tory MPs were educated and class sizes are a over a third smaller than the state sector.
295
Since it’s a) quite clear, and b) accepted by you as to the fact that it will have an effect, you are clearly just trolling.
309. You dreamt it
312 - Top professions will cease to be top professions once background is considered a qualifying factor.
In my eyes they will cease to be top professions if they take one blind bit of notice of such ridiculous top-down edicts.
Aspiration should be about improving people, not making it easier for the same people to get a harder job or better position.
“needs also to be accompanied by serious salary increases and a reversion to sensible levels of discipline within the classroom.”
Nail. Head. Hit. And I didn’t notice either of those points being addressed this morning.
by Tabman January 18th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
A huge part of Cameron’s speech was about discipline: giving teachers right to search pupils, eject pupils from class, giving heads absolute final say in expulsions, giving teachers extra rights when unjustly accused by pupils etc.
318 - thanks Runnymede! My dreams and the today programme frequently merge in the morning - this can leave me a little perplexed.
i think cameron and many tories (and labour/lib dem politicians as well) has the image of kids in state schools only being held back becasue their teacher is not albert Einstein.
Many lesser academic teachers get the best out of (or at least control effectively) many non academic kids who do not need to know the finer points of calculus or 10 different tenses in french.
It is simply not the right approach to make teaching ‘elistist’ in terms of academia
319 I don’t think Labour do aspiration - they do managed mediocrity.
I honestly thought this was a piss-take - and then I discovered it was just another version of Hattie’s White Male Act
Mike, John L. That isn’t the only way to do RDD - and I think you would have to ask Populus why they use that method. Most RDD randomise the final three digits with only the exchange roots being used - they are then pulsed to see if they are live - you can get ex-directory numbers was my point.
Mike you didn’t come back on my reply re Tories also being over-sampled. The truth is, that it is only the Lib Dems who seriously suffer from being under sampled by previous voting record. There are a number of reasons why this may be the case 1) people ‘forget’ they voted Lib Dem 2) Lib Dems are ’shy’ 3) The profile of Lib Dem voters is generally somewhat younger and ‘professional’ and thus have a smaller window of opportunity to answer over the fieldwork period due to being at work 4) students / younger voters tending not to have landlines and / or being less likely to participate in landline only phone polls.
299 - and where are all the disruptive pupils going to be put once they’re excluded?
312: Seriously how is this going to work. Is the question ‘How much did your parents earn’ going to be asked at interviews?
314. It may be of interest to note that their HQ is in Alistair Darling’s constituency
301: The alternative is what Paul Lloyd described, dialling actual random numbers. The downside to that the caller would get lots of non-residential numbers too.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
(I think there are some proper studies out there comparing the proportion of ex-directory interviews achieved by the two methods, but a swift Google didn’t produce any)
321 Tom - You might be thinking of this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/7016551/UKs-recession-has-ended-but-growth-in-2010-will-be-anaemic-Item-Club-forecasts.html
The ITEM club reckons the recession probably did end in Q4.
320 - see my 325. And he didn’t address the elephant in the room, did he? Gove just said that “pay was not an issue”.
My ar5e. You’d have to be pretty dedicated to take a pay cut of 50-70%, not to mention future earnings foregone.
304 - My point is that it should b a minimum requirement. Not everyone who gets an A* in maths A level will b a good teacher. But I don’t see how you can teach maths at A level if you are not capable of getting a A* yourself. That seems a lot more important to me than whether you have a First.
325. Prison hulks
309, 318 - GDP figures out at 9.30 on Tuesday 26th.
329 - Thanks Richard. I was confusing the Item club with the ONS GDP figures which are due out this time next week.
Big news on the markets this morning is Greece - will the ECB be willing to take a further hit on the forex markets to save the coherence of the EMU. GBP/EUR is already around the 0.88 mark, the cheapest for a good few months.
And the other ECB, fancy giving the captaincy to Cook…….
If YOUGUV do all their polling online, surely there can’t be any ‘conspiracy of silence’. I would think YOUGUV, ICM and the big marignals poll are unlikely to be far wrong. Though as ever translating vote share into seats is the trickier bit.
Sorry - as an addendum to 324 - the two kinds of RDD used are called ‘pure RDD’ and ’seeded RDD’ - the latter being the type used by Populus - so the solution to Mike L’s problem is ‘pure RDD’. I presume there is a cost implication to using this is the answer to why not?
331 - by that reasoning, only international footballers would coach national teams.
321. Tom.
ONS economic data this week:
Tuesday: Inflation
Wednesday: Unemployment
Thursday: PSNBR
Friday: Retail sales
Q4 GDP is a week tomorrow.
330- the main thing is to get them out of a mainstream school. At the comprehensive I went to problem students disrupted too many classes and prevented the rest of us from learning. Good students shouldn’t have to suffer because government is sqeamish about punishing the bad students. This should be matched by investment in specialist schools for those who are unwilling to obey the rules.
322 I think there are two different issues at work. Things may have moved on - but I vividly recall my mother’s extremely low opinion of two things. She was an old school style teacher - everything from 4-13yrs.
She couldn’t understand why vocational subjects such as metalwork etc required anything other than a solid apprenticeship/proven work record to teach it. Many established course leaders were compelled to take qualifications to carry on doing so and of course there were many that didn’t have the talent for [which is why they'd taken the vocational route]. They left.
The other was the additional Ed qualifications she took to up her points - she regularly showed me the politically motivated/social worker type crap that she had to parrot to get the *right* marks.
They made me wince and be very thankful that my teachers weren’t spouting it.
328 - I think that the final numbers are screened against business directories - so the actual numbers that are ineligible are very small.
319 - No-one is suggesting dumbing down the qualificaitons needed to become a lawyer or whatever. But the top professions are predicated on academic qualifications for which it is very difficult for those from the poorest backgrounds to even begin to study for. And it always has been.
Straight Bs achieved at an inner city state school where 70% of kids are on free school meals and 15% get grades A-E at A level strikes me as being an achievement just as great as getting straight As from Eton.
Thanks 338 -
So presumably a mornings recovery against the dollar and Euro is likely to be hammered in the next few days by rising inflation, public borrowing and falling retail sales?
How about unemployment? Anyone have a view?
339, quite. At my school they tried pairing up good pupils (such as me) with naughty pupils. The naughty ones distracted the good ones, and one muppet teacher thought I’d been smoking, when the naughty kid next to me reeked of cigarette fumes. Morons.
337 - I am afraid that does not follow. International football coaches are not teachers.
342 - Southam
I’d agree with you about the ratio of acheivements - but a generation of grammar school educated professionals managed to break through from the background of inner cities into the professional and boardroom classes. Hang on - there was even a Prime Minister, wasnt there?
And all that without lowering the bar to entry…..
337. Many teachers are not as (ultimately) ‘capabable’ as their students at all levels and in all walks of life. It does not make them bad teachers. Good teaching must be about relying on resources, expanding the student’s experience, passing the knowledge they have on, but also encouraging the student to push beyond where they are.
and where are all the disruptive pupils going to be put once they’re excluded?
by Tabman January 18th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Once discipline in schools is enforced, and seen to be enforced, the size of the problem will shrink to more manageble proportions. The human rights of the disruptive few should not be allowed to damage the education of the vast majority. We should aim for the greatest good for the greatest number.
342 SO. The grammar schools solved the problem for a large number of poorer students. An unfashionable and politically incorrect point of view - the biggest mistake ever made was the destruction of grammar schools,as much down to the Conservatives (Chris Chataway?) as to Labour.A typical case of throwing the baby out with the bath water.
331: Southam Observer @ 13:00
“My point is that it should b a minimum requirement. Not everyone who gets an A* in maths A level will b a good teacher. But I don’t see how you can teach maths at A level if you are not capable of getting a A* yourself. That seems a lot more important to me than whether you have a First.”
My point is that unless you have a solid degree in mathematics you are not capable of teaching A level maths (and the same is true for other subjects).
That is not to say that everyone with a first in maths is capable of being a good school teacher of the subject (quite the reverse in my experience). However, unless one has a love of the subject, and depth of knoweldge and understanding greater than that requred of one’s best A* student it is not possible to be good teacher.
This applies to maths as it does to physics, English, history and any other subject.
Teaching to well-behaved, intelligent kids is relatively simple for someone properly trained who knows their subject. The mark of whether someone is cut out for teaching is how they deal with ill-disciplined, ill-motivated or low-intelligence kids who aren’t predisposed to be interesting in what the teacher wants to do.
The difference is between having a love of their subject and having a love of teaching. Those who love just their subject (and probably drifted into teaching as an opportunity to stay in contact with it) will find it hard to comprehend - and hence motivate - those who don’t have that intrinsic passion for it.
351 Discipline is the key though - without that, no chance. Perhaps more teachers with ex-services backgrounds would be good in that case!
Funnily enough - quite a lot of police officers were teachers in a previous life, anyone know if the reverse is true?
348 - yes, and where are these excluded pupils going to go? I haven’t seen any proposals on this from the opposition front bench. And that’s my point - they’re only telling half the story. Where’s the other half?
58 Edmund in Tokyo. Both Houses adopting unchanged the Senate bill would not be underhand. Unlikely, but not underhand. And it would still be punished by the voters in November, because what a Brown win would mean is that the electorate in one of the Bluest states has sent a message to Congress saying they don’t want healthcare reform in its current form (which could reasonably be extrapolated to the country as a whole not wanting it in this form), so to proceed with it anyway would be viewed as Congress giving the electorate the finger. That sort of thing tends to get punished over here.
352 - its far easier to impose discipline with smaller class sizes.
Aren’t we all taking this announcement a bit too seriously.
Cameron didn’t say that people with less than a 2:2 couldn’t become teachers, he just said they’d have to pay their own fees.
And as its all just a smokescreen for larger classes, surely thats what we should be looking at.
352. True enough. Getting true discipline though depends on parental buy-in to the education system. Getting a kid to be disciplined at school when (a) the same behaviour is tolerated or even encouraged at home and (b) the parent will back the kid up against the school is nigh-on impossible.
Rules, laws and policies can only go so far: societal attitudes have to fill the remaining gap.
I wonder if when a plumber comes round to the house and the kids run around, make a lot of noise and generally get in the way the householder would say, “Well you have got to earn their respect” ?
352. I think that’s about power complexes
353 Tabman - You haven’t seen the proposals only because you haven’t looked. There has been very extensive Conservative policy development on education over the last two years.
If you really are interested, rather than just sniping at random, there’s quite a lot of detail here:
http://www.conservatives.com/~/media/Files/Green%20Papers/Schools_Policy_Paper.ashx?dl=true
Pages 20-27
351: David Herdson @ 13:16
“The mark of whether someone is cut out for teaching is how they deal with ill-disciplined, ill-motivated or low-intelligence kids who aren’t predisposed to be interesting in what the teacher wants to do.”
Very true, and those that can and do, for the rewards on offer, are marked out for sainthood.
That said, see previous comments re the need to restore discipline in schools, because without that everyone is wasting their time.
There’s a simple solution to excluded pupils.
We all know what it is.
*cough*spacecannon*cough*
Or, of course, enormo-haddock food. Once again the heroic race of superfish will aid the United Kingdom, this time by devouring our ill-mannered children.
354 This piece in the Washington Post, a solidly Democrat-leaning paper, underscores my point about the dangers of Congress proceeding with the Senate bill should Brown win.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/16/AR2010011600703.html
Note the theme of the article - the electorate is angry with the institutions of government. If Congress ignore what has been turned into a referendum on healthcare reform and big government, that anger will just spread wider and deeper, and further energize the kick the bums out vote.
355 Perhaps it is - if you take that argument to it’s logical conclusion 1:1 teaching would make it virtually perfect.
Since there is a balance of cost vs performance, I’d like to see the research on what the biggest factors really are - I went to school where ill-discipline was just never an option, and if a new arrival tried acting up - they got jumped on and soon learned to pack it in.
Discipline = boundaries, clear and upheld - if kids think they can act with impunity/threaten false allegations/few consequences then no wonder the mob will rule.
Also, treating kids as adults and adults like children has caused a lot of problems in terms of personal responsibility.
Tabman
That’s a fair point. You can’t have a schools system, in which the schools are independent and can decide their own exclusion policy, without a concurrent method for dealing with the excluded.
This would require a series of small special schools where those excluded kids, almost all the most vulnerable, would receive the upmost attention and the involvement of Social workers, health, police etc. The cost per pupil of such a school would of course be much higher than the average.
Which is probably why nobody will get into detail on the subject, although there are some of these schools around still.
The fish eat the children - problem solved. The children eat the fish, develop enormous brain power (a la Jeeves) - problem solved. A win win solution.
359 Runneymede - oh I couldn’t agree more, it was first thing that struck me when I kept tripping across plods with teaching backgrounds.
They tend to make good ‘reassuring’ coppers - not so hot at bashing down doors
Teaching in an uncohesive society (which is what we definitely have in the UK after 13 years of Labour governance, make no mistake) is 90% about enforcing discipline and teaching children the basics of how to interact in a civil manner.
This is because primary socialisation, eg, in the home where these things used to take place, is non-existent because dads are not around and mum couldn’t give a shit what her little Charlie or Chardonnay does as long as she gets her benefits on time.
Non-PC, all of the above, but largely true.
360. Richard.
I think I know why Tabman is making so much noise today. If you go onto the Libdems web-site and look up their Education policy you come to this page:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/education.aspx
At the bottom is another link:
Read the full policy briefing for Education and Skills.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/siteFiles/resources/PDF/Policy%20Briefing%20-%20Education%20Skills%20Oct%2009.pdf
When you click on the link you get:
Page Not Found
Sorry, that page could not be located on our site.
Me thinks such protestations as Tabmans are a diversion from their own lack of Education policy…….
364. Prison hulks sounds easier and cheaper to me
366 Plato - Perhaps they switch from teaching to the police because they are fed up with dealing with violent criminals all the time?
368. Be fair jsfl, there’s probably a new policy out this week…and next week, and the week after…
363 - Its 10:1 in the Independent Sector and 17:1 in the State.
If ant of the Tories on here want a bet that class sizes would rise in the State sector under the any Conservative Govt, I’m prepared to accomodate five of you at £100 each.
RE 368 Of course this is after Nick Clegg on taking the leadership announced:
Clegg to focus party on education
Nick Clegg won a narrow victory in the Lib Dem leadership race
New Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has described education as his “biggest enthusiasm” in politics.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7157153.stm
Well clearly Nick has succeeded there then……
360
Page 27 and 28 of that report gives a hint that the tories are going to do what I suggest at 364.
369
A bit unfair to stick a kid in prison if they haven’t offended? Exclusion doesn’t mean criminal.
363. “Perhaps it is - if you take that argument to it’s logical conclusion 1:1 teaching would make it virtually perfect”
The logical conclusion would actually be a 1:0 ratio which would make it [enforcing pupil discipline] perfect in that there would be no in-class disruption at all.
367 Yup - social unacceptability is the key and that’ll take 10 yrs or more.
I’m horrified at the way the balance of power has moved towards kids running the show and their stroppy parents kicking back against discipline. It’s like the trade unions were back in the 70s only now it’s a sizeable chunk of society.
371. Runnymede. But ‘all is fair in love and war (and politics)’.
PS See 373
375
363 Plato. I think you’ll find that the optimal class size will change from subject to subject. For example, in business schools using the case history approach to teaching, small work groups (5-7) are very useful as they enable students to learn from each other, as well as to help each other interpret the lessons of the lectures and readings. But in languages, nothing beats one on one intensive tuition coupled with living with a family who only speak the language being learned in a full immersion environment. I realise neither these examples are typical of secondary school education, but I’m sure you can find examples from that level of education to make this point (too distant past for me now
)
One on one tuition need not be inefficient. My daughter is distance schooling. She works at her own pace and calls/emails her teacher when she needs help. This way, she effectively gets one on one teaching, but the teacher teaches many children.
That the LDs don’t have coherent policies, doesn’t mean they can’t nitpick. In fact, the lack of such policies probably improves their ability to nitpick exponentially.
372 Link to that research? I was educated in classes of 30-34, with one teacher, no assistants.
Discipline makes a huge difference.
A bit unfair to stick a kid in prison if they haven’t offended? Exclusion doesn’t mean criminal.
by astateofdenmark
Oh, all right, just send them to Australia.
376 - I doubt you have children, or any contact with schools.
You’ll note the satisfaction levels of 89% amongst those who do.
What are your views on Catteries, that may be more helpful.
Can someone who’s been to a private school tell us how many kids would be in:
1) Form Group (or whatever it’s called these days)
2) Maths Class
3) English Class
I find it hard to believe it would be just 10.
380. That the LDs don’t have coherent policies
Haven’t they got a coherent policy on nitpicking then? I thought it had become their raison d’etre?
375 - Mr. Herdson you are underestimating the mischief that would be caused by bored teachers…
367 - Seth - I’m afraid your email is a parody, the proximity of which to the truth can be measured in light years.
372 - I don’t think anyone will be daft enough to take that bet (save to exploit the ambiguity in your language). Public finances being in the state they are in, any efficiency savings that can be generated from education will go to paying down debt, not to reducing class sizes. Even after those have been fully realised it is likely that the budgetary shortfall will be such as to necessitate increased class sizes. Or put it another way - Labour’s smaller class sizes were only affordable on tick. Nice when you don’t have to think about the future, isn’t it?
381 - The teacher-to-pupil ratio in the private sector is 1:10, compared to 1:17 in the state sector.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/its-the-class-size-that-counts-542826.html
384 astateofdenmark. US answer. Until last year, my daughter was in a Friends school Class size across subjects and academic years was limited at 16. One teacher, no teacher’s assistants.
284
It varied in mine. Generally, below GCSE years, the number for all three was 24-26.
For GCSEs, form group was around 24-26, with maths dependent on sets (anywear from 7 to 20) and English around 20.
384 - It’ll vary a lot depending on age and subject, but it’ll be a lot less in the private sector.
What you saw this morning was Gove preparing the ground for a rise in the state sector.
384 - It was 30 at my school, reducing to about 22 for GCSEs and then about 10-12 for A Levels.
Pupil Teacher Ratios in state schools 1997 TO 2009 (table 15)
http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000844/SFR09_2009_TablesPublished.xls
383. “You’ll note the satisfaction levels of 89% amongst those who do.”
Lol!! It’s the usual Labour bullshit of quoting some random statistic that means fcuk all.
Do you honestly think 89% of parents are happy with their kids schooling?! So, what was it under the baby-eating Tories? I know, a stat that Ed Balls just pulled out of a hat, say, 49%. No, too generous, better make that 48% under the ‘School Happiness Index’….
We’re discussing a wider issue. That of social norms, beliefs and values. If many ‘parents’ couldn’t give a shit how their kids do at school, why would they be unsatisfied with that school?
Lets face facts: A large proportion of ‘parents’ in this country like their kids’ school because it enables them to have 8 hours grace in which to pop into Wetherspoons to spend their handout. They’re the type who wouldn’t know if their little Justin or Justine is eve turning up for lessons, or what grade they got in ‘community studies, AS Pro level’
“Men - sorry Harriet - Comrades, this Tory plan for education seems jolly good. We have to stop it. Any ideas? Corporal Tim?”
“How about trying to distractfrom the plan by making out it has something to do with increasing class sizes, even though it’s not at all?”
“Capital idea lad!”
389. tim, presumably you believe that class sizes wont rise in the state sector under Labour because of the promise to protect the schools budget. Do you think that such a promise is sustainable across the course of the next parliament given that the government has legally committed itself to halving the deficit? Or will we have larger class sizes under Labour?
One of my housemates is a newly qualified teacher in one of the worst schools in Oxford.
They have a very counterproductive discipline set-up
The children that misbehave really badly are kept apart from the rest of the school and get sent on treats like go-karting and ice-skating.
How on earth does that encourage children to behave better? Mess around and you get a day out, behave and you get to watch idiots who disrupt your lessons go off and have fun.
The whole system is screwed beyond belief
Tim,
“Its class size that counts”
Counts for what exactly?
394 - I have no idea, but I know after this mornings Tory announcement that they will raise them
All bar one OECD countries have cut their class sizes in the last decade.
Finland hasn’t, Cameron chooses Finnish research.
You join the dots.
391 Thanks hasn’t changed too much since 97.
With your superior Googling skills - is there anything about the indy sector?
Also - from further upthread - Jonathan, we did have a physics teacher for A Level teacher without a physics degree.
Now, most of the teachers at my school were excellent, and of those who weren’t they pretty much all knew their subject perfectly - but somehow this guy had slipped through the net. He did have a degree, just not in physics (it was geology or something). Fortunately, the other teacher we had and the lab technician managed to fill in the gaps. I think he moved on from the schoo not long after.
He also looked exactly like Bruce Grobelaar.
So, teaching A Level physics without a degree is possible but not necessarily recommended.
PTRs 1974-1999 State and Independent Schools.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D3814.xls
Andrew, tim doesn’t do answers. He is too busy identifying policy that the tories have no intention of enacting. He is the prime example of a new labour drone.
He has been asked on multiple occasions to provide a few reasons to support labour as opposed to criticising the tories.
He has either been unable or unwilling to do so.
393 Shame that the vast majority of HYS readers like the Tory plan about marriage - that would explain the shift to class size tractor stats rather than face the issues of behaviour/values.
403 Brill thanks jsfl.
400. I remember a female English teacher at my school (perhaps unwisely) admitting to her pupils that she had only got a ‘B’ at A level. I think some student were a bit disquieted by that since she was obviously trying to help them get an ‘A’.
321 Tom this is a useful tool for those dates:
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?c=2&week=1263686400&do=displayweek&month=1&year=2010
So a misleading statistic. If a private school hires loads of music teachers so little Rupert can learn the violin, that will reduce the teacher-pupil ratio, but makes no difference to the numbers in the maths class.
In my inner london state school we had about 25 kids in the top set, down to about 10 in the bottom set. We didn’t have loads of music teachers and I can’t play the violin. I am numerate though.
The debasement of stats continues.
Jonathon Powell on R5 giving evidence to Chilcott.
398: Cookie @ 14:10
It is alsways possible to teach by keeping one chapter ahead of the class. It is not possible to teach well by doing so.
Thats is sort of the point of the Conservative’s proposals that started this whole discussion off.
404. Drone strikes me as a flattering description. Drones actually perform a useful (if limited) purpose.
Current Independent Schools PTR:
http://www.isc.co.uk/FactsFigures_TeachingStaffTeacherPupilRatio.htm
400
And Finland comes out top of the league virtually every year. Shouldn’t we aim to emulate the best?
My comment at 407 is directed towards 402 not 400.
ONS economic data this week:
Tuesday: Inflation
Wednesday: Unemployment
Thursday: PSNBR
Friday: Retail sales
Looks like were in for a week of economic “surprises”
“Surprise” sharp rise in inflation
“Surprise” leap in unemployment
“Surprise” worst ever borrowing figures
“Surprise” “dip” in retail sales
Just for curiousity reasons - it’d be fascinating to know how many teachers were former pupils at their school.
We had about 20% at mine - inc the Head. It gave the school a very clear culture - a bit old-fashioned maybe but it made quite an impact on the class perception.
404. Thanks Don, I am aware of tim’s MO, I was merely curious if I can draw him into one of his more lucid moments to discuss what might happen if what he wants to see (a Labour victory) comes to pass.
The election at present seems to be a referendum on the Tories, which is something Labour have done quite well in achieving, whereas almost nothing is said about how the current government’s programme going forwarded is affordable. I do hope that Labour’s plans are submitted to greater scrutiny in the coming weeks, and we can get past the halving the deficit in four years by raising national insurance by a penny and 50p top rate nonsense.
400: that logically doesn’t flow tim. Some ascepts may be accepted but not of them need to be.
I like Indian food, doesn’t mean I have to become Hindu and move to Mumbai.
417 curiousity = curiosity - oops
417: Now, probably less than 5% at most.
When I was at primary school, there were 44 in the class rising to 46 at one stage when two children came tempaorary when their father was captured in Korea. At the Grammar School, our form size was 36, at one stage rising to 37.
Discipline is very important. Although there are at least two types. Firstly there is the institution variety, based on the ethos of the school. This is not just about unruly behaviour but the niceties of communal life.
For example, we were expected to stand immediately the Head or a visitor entered the classroom. If a member of staff or visitor was walking down the corridor, then we were expected to stand to one side. My wife’s job as an advisory teacher takes her into many schools. At times she feels threatened by the pupils; and this in a shire county which has pretty good schools.
The other aspect is self discipline. This is one of the most important elements we need to develop, including the ability to just get on with the homework through to avoiding getting rat-ar*ed on every conceivable occasion.
I consider that many of the ladders I had for progressing in life (first generation Grammar School and then through University) have been removed, some deliberately others unintentionally. Little has taken their place unless provided by caring parents or by being able to go to a “good” school, either by luck of the postcode or through paying.
*Betting Post*
Those who were following the NI Gerry Adams theme is last nite’s thread will be interested to know that although the story is being covered again today in the local Irish Press, it is barely getting a mention in the MSM over here. The First Post therefore distinguishes itself with the following report.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/58531,news-comment,news-politics,gerry-adams-at-centre-of-sinn-fein-child-abuse-row-chaill-ira
Adams is 9/4 with Paddy Power to be the next NI First Minister to resign. Peter Robinson remains hot favorite.
365 - why not just feed the disruptive children to the well-behaved ones and cut out the middlefish?
Gah! That should reference 367, not 365. Pesky renumbering…
407.What is surely important here is when this teacher obtained her B at A level. Somebody who managed a B - or even a C grade - in the 70s/80s would be likely to get an A today. The same applies to degree classifications - a 2:2 was the normal degree result 25 years ago when being an undergraduate was still ptretty elitist. There can ,surely, be little doubt that such students would now be awarded a 2:1.
422. Great post, Richard 111
sporting news,
Yorkshire’s Ajmal Shahzad ’shocked’ by England call-up
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/cricket/england/8465736.stm
419 - In which case take the bet.
423 PtP - Do you reckon the 9/4 is good value, Peter?
24
I think Jamie oliver would have something to say about that.
424 - What was the policy at Eton?
On drug possession Dave got lines yet Zac got expelled.
418 I don’t think the Tories would mind the election being a referendum about them. I think the Tories understand that they need to speak directly to the people and set out clear, popular policy “concepts” (higher IHT threshold, support of marriage through tax system, greater independence for schools, support for NHS).
If the detailed policies are attacked by the other parties, or even subject to forensic analysis in more learned sections of the media, the Tories know that this will have little impact. The public are sceptical about political parties’ claims about their opponants’ policies, preferring their own gut instinct. Gut instinct also usually prevails over dry forensic analysis. The Tories understand that the public at large have limited tolerance for detail, and are executing their strategy accordingly. Smart politics.
430 Richard
I picked up the rumours early and had a score at 9/4, on the strength of those rumours. I haven’t added to it. I’m inclined to wait and see how this one starts to play. There’s also the complication that the unrelated Robinson affair has yet to play itself out.
So, if I were starting with a blank sheet I’d have a small bet at 9/4 and watch for developments.
423/430 - Looks like it’s 6/4 now.
Also PP have markets on whether Adams and Robinson will each still be leaders of their respective parties at the end of the year.
422 We too stood when any authority figure or visitor came into class. We also stood in line during assembly with our form teacher sitting on a chair at the end of it.
Six formers supervised the dining hall and ate lunch with 1st-3yrs.
And being late, running in corridors, farting about was the subject of public humiliation in front of your peers.
We had one girl Lisa Tarbuck who was disruptive/messing about.
I’ve never forgotten our Head of Biology [an old pupil] telling her that her parents had sacrificed a lot to send her, that she was letting them and herself down - and that if she carried on, she’d live to regret it when she stopped acting her shoe size.
Pin-dropping moment for a load of hormone filled 15yr olds.
435 Sorry Richard. It was 9/4 last nite. Couldn’t check just now.
A ‘year-end’ market sounds interesting.
“Cameron chooses Finnish research.
You join the dots.”
We are all going to have to learn Finnish? That’s about as logical as your inference.
I wonder if Gerry Adams will be doing any more book reviews for the Guardian soon?
433. Perhaps. There is a lot in what you say and I am glad that the Tories are being put on the spot: it will make them sharpen up their act.
However, by acting as the “Government in waiting”, and being treated as such by many of the media (and even to some exetnt by the other parties), Labour policy is being largely ignored. The sheer incoherence of the deficit reduction plan should be exposed. No-one, not even Labour, is prepared for the possibility of a Labour victory but it wont take too much more narrowing for the polls to indicate a hung parliament or even labour with the most seats in a hung parliament. The prime minister’s inability to accept fiscal reality has to be exposed and I hope that Cameron’s debate team as planning to do just this in the course of the debates.
437 PtP:
P Robinson DUP Leader 31/12/10?
Applies to the permanent position.
Yes 4/6
No 11/10
G. Adams to be SF Leader on 31/12/10?
Applies to the permanent position.
Yes 5/6
No 5/6
On Conservative plans to recruit trainee teachers with higher qualifications:
“Christine Blower, general secretary of the National Union of Teachers, said: “Being ‘brazenly elitist’ could mean being brazenly exclusive of those potential teachers who through no fault of their own have had a tough time in achieving the necessary qualifications.”
“Its just so unfair, and tantamount to dicrimination. It’s not their fault they are not very clever!”
Can’t wait for Cameron to kick the ass of the lefty education sector
339:
How many of these indicators will be “surprisingly” bad?
3 out of 4 I reckon. Unemployment data seems to be consistently better than expected, quite a lot of pragmatic approaches like short-time working, pay freezes etc rather than redundancy in the post-union world (I exclude BA of course…)
303 - Mike said “Tim and Gabble are the prime examples of shy Labour supporters.”
Let me fix thst
Tim and Gabble are the prime examples of shyte Labour supporters.
Much better
441 Well judged odds, Richard. I’d take the 11/10 No for Mr Robinson, and 5/6 No for Beardychops, but I wouldn’t bet the house on either.
436 - I’m sure I read somehere that Lisa Tarbuck was bullied at her privat convent school.
I’d be surprised if it had classes of over 30 though.
MA Senate Polls update. The election is tomorrow. Here are the latest polls:
Monday January 18
Massachusetts Senate - Special Election PJM/CrossTarget (R) Brown 52, Coakley 42 Brown +10
Massachusetts Senate - Special Election PPP (D) Brown 51, Coakley 46 Brown +5
Sunday, January 17
Massachusetts Senate - Special Election InsideMedford/MRG Brown 51, Coakley 41 Brown +10
Saturday, January 16
Massachusetts Senate - Special Election ARG Brown 48, Coakley 45 Brown +3
Friday, January 15
Massachusetts Senate - Special Election PJM/CrossTarget (R) Brown 54, Coakley 39 Brown +15
445 PtP - Thanks, sounds sensible.
442 You’re kidding? She said that?
She’s been putting her size 9s in her mouth over the last week or so, but that is a peach.
On the Iraq Inquiry, Powel is very assured and clear.
It all dates back to Blairs 1999 Chicago speech and removing fascist dictators is a good thing.
And an excellent article by Mikes mate Nick COhen yeaterday.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/17/chilcott-inquiry-iraq-blair
446 Oh I see, there is only one person ever named Lisa Tarbuck - the one in my class of 30+ was the daughter of a scrap metal merchant.
Perhaps Jimmy was moonlighting
449 - Some school in Surrey, and the article was yonks ago.
It had classes of over 30?
436. I am a post war baby boomer. We were still very close to the war when many, many people we all knew had made real sacrifices. It was there physically before us in lost relatives, injured people, damaged buildings etc. We knew we were lucky and were, I believe, subconciously grateful.
Compare and contrast with today.
As a starter for ten, I believe many are not prepared / have not been educated to meet the challenges that face us all.
440 - I posted on this on Saturday - I expect the Labour campaign (such as it is) soon to start to creak under the weight of the contradictions in its economic and tax policy, and particularly the attempt to create political dividing lines over the same. I am certain that Cameorn, Osborne and Clarke are planning a co-ordinated assault on Labour’s economic record and plans for the campaign proper.
Cameron will attack Brown and draw him out into the open, Osborne will unleash the document we know the Tories have prepared for this moment and Clarke will stroll on to play the part of the avuncular uncle, calmly poo-pooing the government’s claims.
Gordon Brown has been reported to the stanadars commissioner accoring to Guido Fawkes.
http://order-order.com/2010/01/18/gordon-reported-for-second-slush-fund/
451 - Ha Ha.
You knew we could check on the class sizes so your story has changed.
Shallow as f###
http://order-order.com/2010/01/18/gordon-reported-for-second-slush-fund/
Listened to Michael Gove this morning and came to the conclusion that the Tories are clutching at straws in terms of their education ‘policy’. Teacher recruitment is subject to economics. In a recession it is easy to recruit ‘good’ graduates to the profession. When the economy is booming some good graduates can earn far more money doing other jobs. Nowhere in the Tory policy does Gove mention paying higher salaries. Another Tory policy is based on allowing parents to set up schools within the state system, very few parents will want to do this. Posters on this site who compare academic results in private schools with the mass of results from state schools are mis-guided. Many private schools select their pupils, most state secondary schools accept a much broader intake. The Labour government has re-built crumbling schools and has presided over a real improvement in standards in terms of GCSE grades. The facts speak for themselves and no amount of Tory tinkering will cancel Labour’s very real success.
450 He even said he was ‘a socialist’ - that’ll surprise some members of the Labour Party
My physics teacher only got a “B” at A-Level.
Luckily A-levels were so dumbed down already in 1992 that it was no trouble to get an A. They even gave you all the relevant formulae on the exam sheet! It was discomfitingly easy, looking back, although at the time I was happy of course. Now we are even worse off, with an absurd 25% of A-level entrants getting an A - ridiculous and completely impossible for universities and employers.
Now many degrees are 4 years to fill the gap, and much of the first year is spent learning what A-level students used to be taught.
TBH I have little faith any party will restore the situation much though. The league tables mean that the focus is almost all on the middle achievers.
398 - I hate to say that your example is no one off Simon.
I have seen evidence of this with my own eyes.
As for class sizes - my youngest is in a class of over 30…….
458. “The Labour government has re-built crumbling schools and has presided over a real improvement in standards in terms of GCSE grades.”
A GCSE today is hardly worth the paper it’s written on.
455/7
I was wondering how long that would take. More whitewash needed.
458 no they havent, they’ve moved the goalposts.
458 Lilly Allen. Education is neither shiny new buildings nor inflated grades. It is the knowledge and skill the kids learn.
447 - so, exactly what the Guardian would call a ‘tightening race’ then…
34-3 ….. good grief.
456 What change in story, timmy?
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/01/18/could-labour-be-being-understated-in-the-polls/comment-page-5/#comment-1389961
Since when is 30+ different to 30-34?
I happen to have a surname that put me at the end of the register, hence I’ve a reason to know how many were in my class. Funnily enough, the number of pupils in my form year wasn’t static - was it in yours?
Numpty.
458 “has presided over a real improvement in standards in terms of GCSE grades”
Ha ha ha ha
And Gideon Gono presided over an increase in salaries in Zimbabwe…
Lilly, “..The Labour government has re-built crumbling schools..”
ah yes, but has it paid for any of them yet?
462 - And the new schools are made to very low build standards and will not last nearly as long as those they replaced
*** Betting Post ***
Further to 441 and 445 on Northern Irish politics:
IMO a good combination might be to take two of Paddy’s offerings:
P Robinson DUP Leader 31/12/10? NO at 11/10
First Minister on March 1st? P Robinson at 4/5
Both look to me reasonably attractive in their own right, but the nice thing is that you are fairly unlikely to lose both (although it is possible, of course).
“very few parents will want to do this”
How do you know?
456: It’s Liza Tarbuck you’re talking about you dimwit.
456 ‘Shallow as f###’
tim, is that your new signature? It’s a remarkably accurate description of both you and your posts.
It’s most enlightening to watch you dodging questions and pumping out more smears and chaff than a RAF transport plane flying into Afghan airspace, today.
As the saying goes, there’s no smoke without fire. Something has clearly got you very jittery.
458, 462 465 Completely agree with those that say its falling exam standards rather than rising educational standards that are responsible for the majority of the change in grades.
OT if that’s possible - great bit of fear marketing
A firm are selling stab vests to footie fans going to SA, complete with your national flag embroidered on it
475 I still can’t quite believe what has been substituted for real science questions.
Try this report from the Times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article5983661.ece
476
It’s not fear marketing.
They are needed in some places..
Of course, when you visibly make yourself a target, you will not be stabbed. Shot or run over..yes..
tim you are an idiot…shock horror that there might be two people which have not even the same name.,…
I went to school with a Paul Nicholas…in some feat of miracle it’s not the same one as in Just Good Friends!!
How bizzare is that!!
To all of you who decry the higher number of good GCSE grades achieved these days, you would also have to cancel out the good results of private schools. Most of these schools quote their good GCSE grades. You can’t praise private schools and critisise the measure by which they are evaluated.
140 - thanks for the history of Crosby, very informative.
458. The facts speak for themselves and no amount of Tory tinkering will cancel Labour’s very real success
Of course they don’t Lilly. In fact I doubt the Conservatives will be tinkering along the lines of Labour at all considering Lord Sainsbury’s report:
Gordon Brown is running a weak and dysfunctional government that peddles ‘barmy ideas’, according to a damning report by senior civil servants published today.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1244044/Barmy-ideas-Browns-regime-Whitehall-delivers-damning-verdict-No-10-bullying.html
I suspect the Conservatives will be doing something completely different, far more rational and far more functional…..
480 Lilly, that’s not quite correct. It is possible to decry the impact of grade inflation while accepting that the the current system allows for fair comparison of schools in any given year. What grade inflation does is make it harder to compare results between different cohorts.
IMHO grade inflation has been a steadier, longer process than most people acknowledge, and it is churlish to pretend it is a New Labour invention.
480 Grade inflation makes all of them suspect - however the percentages of who gets what grade is the difference.
What that too hard for you?
Now, how are you getting on in Birmingham or was it London, and your 1st at Oxbridge, cardboard city upbringing, mature student status?
Lilly Allen - Parents seem rather keen actually on the Free Schools. From the Guardian:
“Parents enticed by Tory plan for ‘free schools’
• Hundreds express interest in Swedish-style scheme
• Balls says idea unworkable without cuts elsewhere”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/13/parents-tory-plan-free-schools
480 Of course the grades have risen for all schools. There are no doubt good and bad schools in all sectors. What’s at issue is whether the government has actually done anything to raise educational standards in the state schools - I don’t think it has and that the improvement in grades is an illusion due to a decline in exam standards. I imagine that state school performance vs private sector school performance hasn’t changed much over the years, but maybe I’m wrong. Lowering standards in exams so that there’s little distinction at the higher end would of course muddy the waters in terms of being able to measure this.
Any polls this week? Tonight?
Lilly, as an old teacher/student/Londoner/Brummy you should be aware that most private schools are/have moved(ing) away from the GCSE and now offer the iGCSE and international baccalaureate precisely because the GCSE has become discredited.
480 - Many private schools don’t do GCSE anymore, they do I-GCSE, which the government won’t acknowledge for use in the league tables. NEXT….
466 TimB There was a debate about Obama’s 2012 prospects upstream (26-65) that might interest you.
489 - Instead of A-Level, they offer things like IB and Pre-U.
Simon well let’s hope they at least they last as long as the mortgages we’re all paying on them, because rest assured the PFI lawyers will have ensured that we still pay for them even if they fall down.
487. Someone suggested a few days back that there might be an IMC Guardian poll due?
IMC =ICM doh!
Shock! Horror! gasp!
It appears there is some slight doubt as to the rigorous scientific underpinnings of global warming - who would believe it? :LOL:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/5714211/another-ipcc-claim-evaporates.thtml
A couple of exam dumbing down examples:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7422381.stm
“An exam board is investigating suggestions that some teachers gave students hints about what questions would be in an A-level biology exam.
Discussions in an online student forum ahead of OCR’s A2 biology practical identified key areas for revision.
OCR said it would watch the results to see if anyone had gained an advantage.
Last year the same exam was annulled after some students were given data others had to work out for themselves…”
and
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/7967600.stm
“The new qualifications watchdog for England has made its presence known with a damning report on the standards of general science and physics GCSEs, which it says require “immediate, firm action”.
Below is a summary of its main concerns, with some illustrations of the “decline” it is concerned about.
MULTIPLE CHOICE
One of the main bones of contention for Ofqual is the prevalence of “objective testing” (multiple choice questions).
Chair of Ofqual, Kathleen Tattersall, says in her letter to Schools Minister Jim Knight that the high weight given to these is a cause for concern.
They can mean that students do not really have the opportunity to demonstrate the full extent of their knowledge, particularly the requisite knowledge for a grade A.
Here are some examples taken from examining bodies offering the GCSE science paper.
GCSE Science (Edexcel, 2006)
Our moon seems to disappear during an eclipse. Some people say this is because an old lady covers the moon with her cloak. She does this so that thieves cannot steal the shiny coins on the surface. Which of these would help scientists to prove or disprove this idea?
A) Collect evidence from people who believe the lady sees the thieves
B) Shout to the lady that the thieves are coming
C) Send a probe to the moon to search for coins
D) Look for fingerprints
GCSE Science (Edexcel, 2006)
Many people observe the stars using
A) A telescope B) A microscope C) An X-Ray tube D) A synthesiser
GCSE Biology (AQA 2008)
When we sweat water leaves the body through…
A) Kidneys B) Liver C) Lungs D) Skin
Higher paper in science GCSE, Edexcel
At the astronomical club Alec and Louise discuss the possibility of intelligent life existing on other planets.
Which of the following statements supports the possibility of existence of intelligent life in our galaxy?
A) The galaxy is expanding very quickly
B) The earth is over four billion years old
C) The search for extra-terrestrial intelligence has spent millions of hours analysing signals from space
D) There are so many stars in the galaxy “
Size of classrooms in the new-build schools will have an influence on the size of classes. I haven’t been inside any new school - are they reasonably flexible?
Some private schools have been known to leak information prior to an exam, such is the pressure to gain pupils and funding. At one time many private tutors were shocked to hear from their ‘private school’ pupils that they needed a lesson on a specific topic and lo and behold that topic appeared in the exam on the next day. Exam results are manipulated by the private system. One rouse is based on international students. They sit an exam in their native language and get an A star. This single pupil result appears as a 100% A star result which in turn boosts the league tables of the school. Weak pupils are not allowed to sit the exams in case their D grade deflates the school results.It’s a cheats’ charter but parents are easily fooled.
Lilly no comment to make on the IGCSE and IB being the preferred standard for people who are paying through the nose (twice) for their childs education?
480 Lilly Allen “Most of these schools quote their good GCSE grades. You can’t praise private schools and critisise the measure by which they are evaluated.”
Others have rightly critiqued your logic here. I would add that the way parents evaluate private schools is not by GSCE results alone, but is reflected most accurately by their decision to send/keep their kids to/in them.
Grades is but one of the tools responsible parents would deploy in their due diligence. Visiting multiple schools for comparison, assessing the facilities and the faculty, finding out about the curriculum and teaching methods, understanding the school ethos, auditing some classes, talking to other parents/kids/teachers/administrators, and examining university entrance stats were far more important to my wife and I than GSCE (or their US equivalent) results. Selecting a school for your kids is not like buying a box of matches.
498/ ill informed bullshonet.
498 And your evidence for this is what?
Try posting as Sirius for a bit of novelty.
If the Labour Party are paying you this - they’re getting very poor value for money.
That’d be novelty - not.
498: Because state schools never do the same? sure……..
495 Has anyone investigated whether Alistair Campbell was at alll involved in putting together the IPCC dossier on climate change?
Himalayan glaciers to melt by 2035 curiously similar to 45 minutes claim in its origins and propagation…
498 - Hmmm, so all those state schools not putting pupils in for basic core subjects and / or rather sticking them on courses that give them the “equivalent” of x GCSE’s haven’t played the system either?
Why was the government eventually forced to alter their measure for “success” in GCSE to 5 good GCSE’s INCLUDING Maths and English. hmmmm, nothing to do with the fact that some state schools were absolutely taking the pi$$ (assisted by the government ridiculous “calling an apple equivalent to an orange” policy of a vocational qualification is worth x GCSE / A-Levels).
498. “It’s a cheats’ charter but parents are easily fooled.”
Lilly, are you saying that 12 years of Labour government has delivered a system that isn’t working well?
That’s it, I’ll never vote Labour again!
tim, Lilly is taking a hell of a beating. As the leader of the thicket collective shouldn’t you be doing something about this? She is diverting attention away from what you want to discuss and providing much entertainment for the herd at the same time.
Only 47% of Labour voters beieve that the manifesto will be delivered, ouch!!
Tory 77 & 75 Lib Dems on their respective manifesto’s
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/article/4897/manifesto_pledges_dont_trust_them_say_public.html
Lilly & Tim, perhaps you should focus on your own parties manifesto.
new thread
498
so what you’re saying is that the exam results are overstated from the already inflated grades declared and that we should be really be worried by the declining standards this governemnt has imposed.
Sounds like we need a decent Education Secretary.
Tory education policy and class sizes
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/01/18/how-to-get-better-teachers-accept-bigger-class-sizes/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
So, Timothy (likes zebras) 209, you think the IPCC’s Himalayan glacier boob doesn’t “signify anything”. Er … no – it signifies quite a lot.
Quite apart from the IPCC’s professional incompetence (relying for a major claim on a speculation that had not been peer reviewed or formally published in a scientific journal) it says a lot about the IPCC’s embattled Chairman, Rajendra Pachauri. When a detailed Indian scientific study, endorsed by the environment minister, undermined the IPCC claim, he dismissed it as “voodoo science”, accusing the minister of arrogance. This criticism now looks grotesque – coming from someone who oversees such an absurd and incompetent mess.
496 are those questions real?
498 ‘Some private schools have been known to leak information prior to an exam, such is the pressure to gain pupils and funding.’
A pure and wholly unsubstantiated fabrication.
I’ve often wondered what Glover was wondering but agree with you Mike. Looking at all the evidence it is still not good for Labour. Even if the golden rule did not apply the averages are poor as well. Not convinced by Glover’s argument.