It looks like it was Tessa?
January 5th, 2010
But is there more going on?
The above is from the New Statesman blog which also says that all is now well between Tessa and Number 10.
Mike Smithson
***Political Website of the Year***
MessageSpace Advertising
Jowell is a red herring.
The New Statesman would not fuel a rumour that damages the government without purpose. The aim of their intervention is to kill a bigger story.
Boooooooo!
It was, she doesn’t have the impact of Mandy, Darling or Straw
Bit of a non-story in that case.
Here’s Gordon again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7enLKrxLrI&
And what ia it about Gordon and women ministers?
Ruth Kelly, Caroline Flint, Jacqui Smith ..Tessa Jowell.
1. Maybe he’s a woman hater, you do get them. Maybe he just can’t handle women which is more likely.
4/5 - I know it’s hard, but don’t forget Hazel Blears
Not Ed Balls then!
It needs something bigger than this. But if she does go, she could be the snowball that becomes the avalanche.
What speech is Mandelson giving tomorrow ??
He is bound to want this thing resolved one way or another before he stands up to deliver it, as he is bound to be asked questions about it…
Hmm, Macintyre fed that story pretty quickly.
O/T, just done an interesting ARS poll. Included a question on whether the SNP/PC should be included in all debates, Scotland and Wales debates, or no debates.
maybe Tessa and Gordon had some “aural intercourse”. I bet she gives good phone
It does more or less confirm another name from here.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1190711/The-Labour-WAGs-The-Women-Against-Gordon.html
8 - Balls is in deep with Brown
Screaming, Re. your post in the last thread.
I agree. I don’t mind Tessa myself, either. She’s at least tolerable unlike Jackie, Caroline, Pat Hewitt, etc… But she’s hardly a big hitter. It would need someone more important than her to cause Brown trouble (thinking Darling, Mandy or Straw, really)
FPT 317. d(too)
It’s worth knowing that the figures being given to the tories by their private pollster would suggest a hung parliament, according to some predictors.
Well it would give her more time to spend with her husband….ohhhhhh
1 Maybe it *was* Darling?
Tessa Jowell as stalking horse, eh? I’m all for it – still got a fiver on her for next Labour leader…
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/08/would-tessa-give-cameron-a-run-for-his-money/
Savaged by a dead sheep…
Jowell is probably just chaff to try and divert attention from something else. I keep looking at Isn Dale’s latest post about Mandy which ends with the enigmatic question “What his endgame?”
Anything surfacing at the BBC yet?
21 - I want to know what Mandy is doing in that picture
OT Global warming could mean loch curling matches for only the 3rd time since the war
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/1/5/curlers-thumb-noses-at-bureaucracy.html
I don’t think Brown hates women; it’s just that women have never held a prominent position in his personal life. He therefore ignores them, despite them being in government and they get angry.
The ‘window dressing’ remark summed it up I think.
6 Maybe he just can’t handle women which is more likely.
It’s well documented that Brown is not good with women in the workplace.
Having said that he did date some good looking ladies before getting married - but it was always secondary to his politics and he did not treat them well - the relationships were strictly on his terms and he showed little or no consideration for their needs.
Who is Chris Purser?
From Dale
@chrispurser yes, but I’d have to shoot you
16 Gabble
I think you have more to worry about than Lithuanian and Tory privates tonight. Focus boy!
22 - No they are probably set to ignore!
FPT 317. d(too)
It’s worth knowing that the figures being given to the tories by their private pollster would suggest a hung parliament, according to some predictors.
by Gabble January 5th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
The point is that they are not the figures. It is a case of massive rounding to make a point during a live interview. Even I don’t think you are thick enough to believe that the private polling figures are 40. 30, 20. You are posting them in the vain hope that what you wish to be true is in fact true.
21 Probably thinking to himself “Why the **** did I let Gordy talk me into coming back, I could have been President of Europe!”
26 - Gordon should come to some of the HR Seminars i’ve been dragged too
HR Bod: Do you have a problem with a woman in a position of a authority
Me: I’ve never had a problem with a women in any position.
26. I suppose it’s no surprise that a man of Gordon Brown’s shambolic appearance has trouble taking care of a beard.
31 was for TSE @ 23
Following the maxim - Do what your enemy doesn’t want you to do, getting rid of him this week is the only answer. The GE can still be March/April, and the polls would improve.
The people simply are not listening to him anymore, so the current ’safe hands’ message is a waste of time.
Is James Macintyre a reliable source?
31/34 - That’s probably very true.
36 - Absolutely, Tony Blair is now President of Europe now, isn’t he?
…..ohhhh….
Saying party shares are “around” 30 and 40 could mean they are 28 and 42.
That said, why would private polling be any different to public polling?
36 - He’s a good source for Bunker spin
36 - Absolutely, Tony Blair is President of Europe now, isn’t he?
…..ohhhh….
This looks very much a non story.
The real story today is; will gas supplies run out in 6 days time?
Someone tory has said this and either there is some basis in fact or the statement was a crass lie made to make the conservatives look big and caring. If so they deserve all they get.
But suppose it is true and after another week of sub zero temperatures the gas nozzles start to fizzle out, what will happen?
I remember the winter of 1947, where london had freezing weather for over a month. The snow was over 3 feet high in the parks and 1 foot high in the streets.
However we all went to school, never had a day off and fuel, in this case coal, did run out as the trains were frozen to the tracks and couldn’t transport anything.
I believe over 5000 people died in London alone.
In this soft age many more than that will die if the gasc runs out.
24 - It’s known as a bonspeil Plato. My Dad was at the last one to take place on Loch Leven in 1959. It was a big local derby. Fife & Kinross against Perthshire.
I’ll be VERY happy if the election result is 40/30/20 and the Tories secure a comfortable 20 seat majority.
1: ‘The aim of their intervention is to kill a bigger story.’
Absolutely! And what’s this nonsense about ‘Tessa is in a good place with Gordon right now’ - puerile baloney! I suspect this is a stalling exercise by the New Statesman while Gordon’s goons flush out the rebels.
42 Weather
Here’s the story:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/05/national-grid-warns-uk-gas-shortage
As usual it depends on supply and consumption…but the National Grid have put out a warning so its not been totally fabricated.
42. Weathercock. Gas Supplies.
National Grid bigwig interviewed on R5L this evening said that peak daily use consumes 15% of storage capacity…. about 6-7 days worth at gas mark 8.
But there’s more supply than that because they just open-up the tap from the North Sea a bit more when it’s nippy outside. Does the North Sea count as storage?
42 Weathercock - apparently we have capacity to store about 15 days of gas but due to the very high usage, this has dropped to 8 days IIRC - big users have been officially asked to reduce their consumption [hence the story taking off].
I can confirm that we only have a couple of weeks of capacity at any one time - used to know a chap who did corporate relations for the Bacton gas terminal [which services 75% of the gas] and was considered a big terrorism target just after 7/7.
42. Sorry it was eight days of gas supplies.
30. d(too): “It is a case of massive rounding to make a point during a live interview.”
No. You’re wrong.
I believe Gary Gibbon when he says that the 40,30,20 figures are the ones being given to the tories, by their private pollster, to illustrate the current position of the parties.
You just biassed because it points to a Hung Parliament, which I think the tories would probably settle for, right now, after their disastrous performance yesterday.
24 and 43 I’ve actually heard some stories from people at work about people driving across a frozen reservoir near Cookstown!
Good week to bury bad news for the Labour party with all the weather disruption
45. Will it be like that scene in The Godfather where Corleone’s having all his enemies murdered?
42
Gas:
” LONDON (Dow Jones)–A blast of icy weather across Britain this week has exposed the U.K.’s vulnerability to natural gas shortages despite years of investment in supply infrastructure, prompting fresh criticism of the country’s storage capabilities.
Sub-zero temperatures triggered a surge in U.K. demand for natural gas for heating and power generation Monday, forcing the operator of the U.K.’s natural gas grid to issue an alert that demand was about to outstrip supply in the system.
The coldest winter in Britain for thirty years has pushed U.K. demand for gas up 30%, according to National Grid PLC (NG.LN). The U.K.’s gas system remained under pressure Tuesday with demand running near an all-time high of 446.9 million cubic meters.
Critics said the alert–the first to be issued since one in 2006 that followed a fire at the U.K.’s Rough storage facility–has highlighted Britain’s failure to invest in storage facilities to compensate for declining output from the U.K.’s own North Sea natural gas fields, once capable of meeting the U.K.’s entire gas needs.
“It’s a reminder of how close to the wind we’re sailing to meet our energy needs,” said David Hunter, an analyst at consultancy McKinnon & Clarke. “The storage issue is real, we need to pull our finger out. As the biggest importer of gas in Europe, three weeks worth of storage is insufficient.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100105-709492.html
50- Gabble
“You just biassed because it points to a Hung Parliament, which I think the tories would probably settle for, right now, after their disastrous performance yesterday.”
Your funniest post in a while… keep them coming!
re 50. Given polling records and tactical unwind I reckon the HP margin is 7-8%.
I believe Gary Gibbon when he says that the 40,30,20 figures are the ones being given to the tories, by their private pollster, to illustrate the current position of the parties.
gabble, have a bit of a think. What are the chances of the polling falling on exactly round numbers?
You are delusional if you believe that those numbers are what are being given to the tories in private polling.
42. “But suppose it is true and after another week of sub zero temperatures the gas nozzles start to fizzle out, what will happen?”
People will ask Brown which of the two main parties he will support if there is a hung parliament.
@56:
What does VIPA think?
Tory fighting fund may be three times bigger than Labour’s
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/tory-fighting-fund-may-be-three-times-bigger-than-labours.html
I’m not entirely convinced by the Tessa Jowell story, this looks like an attempt to flush out the real culprit.
RT @EricPickles Just been told by our Chief Whip that if GE is in May there are only 10 more PM’s Questions left in this parliament
And how many will Gordo find an excuse to miss?
Hate women? Not exactly.
According to Bower, he has a history of administering a memorable rogering (no, don’t) then disregarding them completely. String of angry (rather acceptable) ladies left in mid-air, apparently. (I would add ‘and thereby hangs a tale’ but I won’t.)
Sarah arm-locked him into marriage which he reluctantly agreed to because she persuaded him that it was a sine qua non for being PM. Plus, unaccountably, she was in love with him, but she wasn’t the first. He was a goer between the sheets when young, acc Bower.
Yeah I know, I know, but that was then.
56. Indeed Mike. Poor old Gab’s trying to spin a 10% Tory lead as bad news for the Conservatives is pretty funny. Such a lead on election night would of course give David Cameron a small, but governable majority.
50. Gabble you could get a job as a pantomime dame if you can crack a joke that well…..
58 The price of gas will almost certainly go up over the next 2 weeks as we’re a hostage to the market - wonder how that will play to Mr Average.
I use oil so have been totally stuffed for the last few years and now rely on logs and a single wood burner whenever I can.
57. Gibbon said the figures were ABOUT 40/30/20 which is a bit inaccurate in itself as nearly all the recent polls have the LD’s at around 18%.
56. Mike Smithson
I don’t think tactical unwind is a ‘given’.
There was probably plenty of that in the 2005 GE, due to Iraq, but a resurgent tory party should concentrate left-of-centre minds.
Dems prepare for Houdini act in mid-terms:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2010/01/02/politics/p060805S54.DTL
Apparently, the Dems winning two-prong strategy for the 2010 mid-terms will involve running against George W. Bush and tying Republicans to Wall Street plutocrats. The first part of the strategy already failed in 2009, so it’s likely to be even less effective one more year down the post-Bush road. The other element doesn’t sound much better, given that Obama took more Wall Street campaign cash than McCain, plus the bailouts, Tim Geithner, and limp noodle approach to financial market reform emerging from Congress. If this is really all they’ve got for this year’s elections, the result will be a disaster.
65 Well, he’s already an Eastern European escort.
60 - It isn’t the size of it that will count but how it is employed.
47
“But there’s more supply than that because they just open-up the tap from the North Sea a bit more when it’s nippy outside.”
Er, no they don’t. ‘Just opening the tap’ takes at a minimum several weeks and we are already using as much of the NS gas as we can.
Our storage capacity is scandalously low compared to other countries and one of the reasons we have seen a drop in NS production and an increase in imports is because the government has done everything it can to disuade companies from doing new exploration and development.
57 don(the other one)
Gabble is just trying to detract us from the main issue of the day. No shortage of gas here.
62. How does Big Eric know exactly what day Brown will visit The Queen? I suspect, contrary to popular opinion, that Brown will go for an extra long campaign, ala Major in 1997 and the election will be called mid March (thus getting him and Darling out of having a budget)
47
“But there’s more supply than that because they just open-up the tap from the North Sea a bit more when it’s nippy outside.”
Er, no they don’t. ‘Just opening the tap’ takes at a minimum several weeks and we are already using as much of the NS gas as we can.
Our storage capacity is scandalously low compared to other countries and one of the reasons we have seen a drop in NS production and an increase in imports is because the government has done everything it can to disuade companies from doing new exploration and development.
67 Lib Dem voters are now evenly divided as to which of Labour and Conservatives they’d prefer to see in power.
In 2005, they preferred Labour by 2:1.
57. don(the other one) January 5th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Does it really matter whether those numbers were exact or rounded? If the gap is ~10% then a small closing would lead to a hung parliament. Doesn’t mean it will happen, of course.
66-”I use oil so have been totally stuffed for the last few years and now rely on logs and a single wood burner whenever I can.”
Maybe you should switch to books!
http://www.metro.co.uk/news/807821-pensioners-burn-books-for-warmth
74 - I think they will have a budget and then announce the election the following day. I think the budget will be on 17th March myself.
Looks like the Tories are playing tit for tat
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/05/tories-labour-defence-spending-dossier
Mystic Mac strikes again.
78 - I hear that there are lots of copies of a certain book on Courage going cheap.
OT This is good news
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2010/01/times-withdraws-misleading-cli.html
79. What on earth will the budget contain? Theres no money to do anything with. We know hell will freeze over before Brown starts cutting services this close to an election and theres no money for a tax cut/tax bribe either?
84 - There is enough for a bit of sleight of hand and the careful weaving of a few dividing lines.
Tessa Jowell? Come on, but either this story was nonsense and No10 have used it to make someone is onside, when we know that she has doubts. OR there is a bigger fish out there and we have a McBride-style spike going on…
And by the way….
Come on you mighty Potters!
That is all…
What is the smallest lead in GE vote share that Cameron would take if offered it right now?
I would say 8% as I think it would be enough for a small majority - ie approx majority of 10. And if it didn’t quite give him a majority he would still be able to govern and have the required momentum.
84 / 85 - The point is that after the PBR, I don’t think the media are having it any more (only 8-12 years too late). They pretty much ignored all the “nice” stuff in the PBR, instead just ripped the fantasy figures apart.
85. I guess if we get Q4 positive growth figures announced in a couple of weeks, a budget would give Brown/Darling the opportunity to gloat about the end of the recession?
86. It’s interesting to note that Paul Waugh used the term ‘he’:
The plotters have certainly asked a sympathetic minister to do so - but whether he will do so is another matter.
54./75.
I there is a sustained blast from the east and temperatures drop to -10 or below then there will be pressure put on the electricity grid which will add to any mayhem caused by lack of gas supplies.
The next round of opinion polls could precpitate some action from rebels if they are really bad for Labour -but I stress could given the gutless performance so far unlikely anD who wants a Labour leader election in tHE middle of an election camapign - not the general public!
When do we expect next poll?
rogerh
90 ghanimah
Good spot.
But then are there any real men left in the cabinet?
89. “would give Brown/Darling the opportunity to gloat about the end of the recession”
I’d be surprised if Darling fell into that trap, but Brown might.
84. The Budget will contain one or more of the following:
1) Top rate of IT up to 60%
2) IT 50% band to start at £100k
3) New top tate of IHT - 50% (or 60%?) above £1m
90 - I can’t believe it is Tessa. Something else may well be stirring.
I also see Dale claims to have a cracking story on Labour’s finances tomorrow morning…
And…
3-0
87. With The Ashcroft money, I reakon a 5% Tory lead would be enough for Cam to govern with a minority administration and a 6% lead would get him a majority in single figures. 10% could actually take him to about a 50 seat majority, IMO, but 20 would be acceptable.
89 - They don’t need a budget to do that. It can be wrapped up in the GE campaign, “don’t let the Tories ruin it), without having to talk too much about the horrors that have been papered over. A budget, and they have to lay out more nasty debt figures and more about the cuts (Gordo, what cuts…).
Seth, gabbles problem is that tim, the leader of the thicket collective is not here so he has to think for himself.
I am sure when tim arrives with the bandwagon gabble will be more than happy to give up the attempts at thinking and leap aboard.
86 - A stunning start from Stoke.
On topic, not convinced this has even the tiniest crumb of truth..
Not only is there going to be a lot of tactical unwind but there are plenty of LibDem voters actively wanting to see the ejection of Labour. You should get out on the doorstep a bit more Gabble.
88 - Well yes a budget would be a risk but it would give Labour a chance to get onto the front foot. If an election were announced the following day the papers might be distracted from tearing thhe budget apart.
28.
“Focus boy!”
Is the defective defecting to the yellow peril?
63 - agree 100% Prodicus, but I was trying to spare those with tender sensibilities the details of how his technique was as good with the ladies in his youth as it is with the country in his dotage….
104 Indeed, indeed.
Even if this turns out to be a non event it is hardly the sort of story Labour wants to be in the news as the election year begins.
Gordon has polled best when he has looked in charge of a united party. When the papers have been full of stories about plots then Labour’s poll ratings have gone down sharply. I imagine the pollsters are about to start work on the first polls of the year, can’t imagine they’ll bring much joy for Labour!
“Minister rumoured to resign is Jowell”.
So the Blair witch is projected to dump the brownies. Not exactly the biggest shock in the world were it to happen. Damaging, all the same.
99 wage slave
No, that would be a defective defecting defect.
There may not be a story or there may be another story but this is not the story.
102 In other words,maybe the 1992 schedule could be repeated;
Tuesday 10th March Budget Day
Wednesday 11th March Election called,for April 9th
AS the first 3 months post-PBR day is Tuesday 9th March,this could dovetail in nicely:
(Hypothetically)
Tuesday 9th March 2010 Budget Day
Wednesday 10th March Election called,for April 8th or 15th-both of which will fall in the Easter school holiday.
We shall see!
Is there a disappearing thread? I posted the other night but can’t find the post. Anyhoo, the point was:
Story in the City: Darling wants to up VAT to 20% to reduce debt, Brown won’t let him do it because it would be electoral suicide.
Seconds Out, Round 1.
Ding Ding
I think the resigner is Darling.
50 - ‘I believe Gary Gibbon when he says that the 40,30,20 figures are the ones being given to the tories, by their private pollster, to illustrate the current position of the parties.’
I saw Gary Gibbon’s report on the Channel Four News. I got the impression that the Tories’ pollster was doing a rough ‘poll of polls’ of the various companies rather than talking about any mysterious private findings.
Is the power of partronage still strong with the “great leader”?
57: I think (Channel 4’s website happily played the clip the first time but is now being very grumpy with me) Gary Gibbon said about 40/30/20, so I expect it was just the Tory’s polling guys giving them a rough overview of the wider polling picture.
112 patronage!
Well, you have to feel sorry for Tessa Jowell, reading that her resignation wouldn’t even be a story
Bollocks. Jowell’s not a heavyweight. Her resignation alone would achieve sod all.
111. Albion Til I Die January 5th, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Darling is not going to get involved this time?!!!
“Even those who were once his [Brown's] enemies say that he is still the biggest figure on the stage; that he is a heavyweight who made the right decisions when the financial crisis struck; that it would be reckless to cast all that aside when there is – crucially – no polling evidence that any of his rivals would fare any better.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/05/cowardice-labour-regicide-brown-coup
It would be a story just not the story
117 - Her staying in post is unlikely to achieve much more in the grand scheme of things.
I would have thought Mandelson is the one that could finish Brown - Mandelson and Brown have had an up / Down relationship in the past and I think Mandelson has got Gordon in a position potentially now which could when deployed take Brown out.
119. Well said Globule, another great day for the blue team.
One day closer to the election and Gordon is still there.
Perhaps the big fish resigning is tim?
119 - zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Yeah, forcing together Lloyds and RBS was a stellar decision.
Why screw one bank when you can screw two for the same price?
119. Oops Globbie you missed this bit too…
One senior cabinet minister admits that the next election is as good as lost, but that under Brown what would otherwise be a narrow defeat will be converted into a walloping that could take 20 years to reverse. “It’s a complete disaster,” he says, his voice rising.
126 - Ho ho ho. MacGabble really is a moron.
119. I love the cliches about Brown,”biggest figure on the stage”,”a heavyweight”,”the clunking fist”.
All highly amusing
72
Brown’s strangling of investment in the N. Sea may have been an attempt to strangle the SNP as well.
84
Brown is in economic fantasy land anyway. He may well go for a pre-election splurge.
“It’s a complete disaster,” he says, his voice rising
- when you have ‘em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow…
128 - Absolutely a heavyweight,
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00793/gordon-brown-helman_793880c.jpg
and he doesn’t like to hear about it either,
Gordon Brown takes offence at ‘fat’ cartoons
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordonbrownyear/4331544/Gordon-Brown-takes-offence-fat-cartoons.html
Tessa Jowell:
“This story is complete and utter rubbish and I have no intention of resigning.”
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:22d3a171-8e41-44e1-a594-9a2f4e864723
Welcome back Martin Day.
Yay.
Remember Dale linking this article suggesting that if he survived the first couple of weeks he would be OK. Makes it sound like the first couple of weeks were an issue.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/donald-macintyre/donald-macintyre-will-they-wont-they-launch-a-coup-1854691.html
As far a James Macintyre is concerned, if he says look over there and points, look in the opposite direction.
133. Albion Til I Die January 5th, 2010 at 8:46 pm
Thank you!
From MacGabble link,
The angriest person I spoke to was a senior House of Commons official in Portcullis House who’s furious at Speaker Bercow’s decision to turn a bar that’s popular with Commons staff - Bellamy’s in 1 Parliament Street - into a children’s nursery, only a year or so after a huge amount of taxpayers’ money was spent refurbishing it.
Bercow certainly likes spending the tax payers money doesn’t he.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:22d3a171-8e41-44e1-a594-9a2f4e864723S
some words from Jon Craig…
136 - All socialists do…
“What is clear however, is that there is nothing in the history of psychology of Gordon Brown that indicates he would have fought bitterly with Tony Blair for ten years, and endured such abuse as prime minister for two, to give up the chance of fighting a general election he still genuinely believes he can win.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2010/01/brown-labour-leadership
Possibly more hassle for Gordon when he least needs it…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/6938334/Pressure-on-Barack-Obama-to-reveal-what-Britain-said-about-Detroit-bomber.html
I notice in the photo at the top Tessa is not wearing a wedding ring.
114. Anthony - Nice to see you back.
Have you seen Charles Clarke about on your travels today or is he ‘on manoeuvres’ in London?
141.
Perhaps she is guiding Gordo to a railway bridge over the Thames?
So someone suggested it was Tessa, someone rang to find out, it was denied and Tessa says she had no intention of resigning. No evidence whatsoever story was about Tessa.
Whatever.
Its too late, no-one has the guts nor is suicidal enough (he/she would not be forgiven) to try it.
New poll soon from The Metro
This from BNP Spokesman’s Blog
….Keep your eyes open for a poll commissioned by the Metro newspaper. Not wanting to spoil their thunder I was asked to comment on a very favourable set of statistics concerning our election progress……
http://simondarby.blogspot.com/
I find it interesting that Jowell’s saying that the story is ‘complete and utter rubbish’- the bit about a cabinent member being asked or the bit about it being her?
144 I agree and it seems to be a prevailing view.
Tessa Jowell = red herring
132
‘132.Tessa Jowell:
“This story is complete and utter rubbish and I have no intention of resigning.”
Remember this dope didn’t even know she had £400,000 in her bank account,so for her to be involved in some plot is far beyond her competence.
As was spotted by someone upthread, Waugh said ‘he’.
The person who should be before the House explaining himself this afternoon is not the Home Secretary but the Prime Minister. Twice in three days the Prime Minister has been caught out making false claims about the contacts that have taken place between Britain and the United States over the airline bomb plot and the security threat to our airports.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2010/01/chris-grayling-lambasts-the-government-for-spinning-intelligence.html
145. The last Metro poll was back in June and conducted by Harris?
150. Yes. Grayling smacks ball into back of net. tim must be furious.
The man who will introduce a new system for MPs’ expenses has suggested he will not feel bound to implement all reforms recommended after the recent scandal.
Sir Ian Kennedy, head of the new external regulator, said he would consult on other options in some cases.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8442533.stm
Interesting from Andrew Neil re how temperature of deacade has not increased despite unrestrained CO2 emissions. Will he be slapped down by BBC or is this a turning point?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/dailypolitics/andrewneil/2010/01/i_did_warn_you.html
139- That has the ring of truth to it.
149 Put up job by Nick Brown to flush out conspirators?
Yesterday overheard on train discussing Mr Pope’s letter and fact of plot and plans to avert such. Today a rumour reaches the ears of a well known journalist blogger. The name of one of the suspects leaked to a friendly blogger. Suspect swears fealty, possibles fear retribution.
The only thing there is little doubt about is that Brown and co are very well versed in the dark arts of back room politics.
It’s all just far, far too late. October or even November were possibilities but not now. We could be in a GE campaign in 6 weeks’ time!
155 Are the numbers out??? 140 now?
Not sure 139 has the ring of truth about it.
If enough Labour MPs did not have the bottle to axe Brown last year I doubt they will do so so close to an election as in a leadership contest all hell would break out and there is no way the Labour Party could be seen as a united, viable government in the run up to the poll. Even a short contest would leave one or more factions (eg Blairites, Brownites, old left etc)unhappy and not fully focues on getting an electoral victory.
However the flipside of the coin is talk of plots mean that the Conservatives can go into the election warning that Brown will be dumped and the new leader will be even worse eg Balls or Harman
Actually ‘Vote Brown get Balls’ has a certain ring to it…
139 - I don’t think there’s any doubt that Brown believes he can win - it’s the only explanation for his conduct.
Without going into detail, it’s known that he ignores details and facts that he doesn’t like or that don’t fit with his view, he cannot tolerate argument or disagreement, refuses to listen to advice, and so on.
Yes he believes he can win, he’s probably utterly convinced of it, but it looks unrealistic.
The Jowell story is simply absurd. I initially thought Darling, but I wonder if one of the other quiet men of the cabinet have been dismayed by the continual nonsense. Someone like Benn for example would be very damaging to Gordo, and he’d also be marking himself out as a leadership candidate. Someone who noone expects to be disloyal would seem to have been the strong early hint anyway.
156 Ted
That’s the most believable theory so far. Also explains NPMP’s odd posts.
156.
Ted; respect.
152 Constan Treader; he could have included ’sexed up’ in his attack speech to build on Osborne’s use of dodgy dossier.
Cracking Fulham goal to make it 3-2…. Every time they do this, every time…
156 Ted
Also perhaps to have lots of cretinous journalists running round in circles, ignoring a real story?
The ‘Too Late’ posters have a very valid point.
But the ‘ground rush’ at seeing their imminent electoral catastrophe if they don’t ditch the malfunctioning main parachute and hope the reserve canopy might save their lives might focus minds suddenly…
Interesting 7-10 days ahead…
166 perhaps but it looks to me more like spiking the guns, trying to smoke out the weak links - a Cabinet resignation would be a real story.
165.It does my head in,Stoke never do things the easy way.Always sit back!!!!
Re my 156. I meant to type “credulous” - but maybe “cretinous” does just as well.
154. From memory according to NASA the 10 warmest years since records began (which was some time in the 19th century iirc) occurred between 97 and 08.
Waugh = Wayne
Apologies if this has been posted before
David Cameron’s slogan ‘we can’t go on like this’ was used by Thatcher on immigration
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/6932576/David-Camerons-slogan-we-cant-go-on-like-this-was-used-by-Thatcher-on-immigration.html
Whatever the truth is, the plotting means that Brown is just that little bit more paranoid today than he was yesterday and as Labour keep telling us a hung parliament is on the cards, without Brown’s overthrow, the Labour rebels are one day closer to having Brown continue into the next term.
Is he really going to stand down if he manages to stop the Conservatives winning an outright majority?
A hung parliament could (from the perspective of seeing Labour implode) be the best possible outcome. All those little napoleons all greedily eyeing Gordon’s throne and he decides he ain’t going. There’s Snarling Ed baring his teeth at any who dare suggest Brown goes. Meanwhile Mandy and Co continue their perpetual plotting, Clarke is pinging the odd grenade over the front benches, McDonald, Abbot, Cruddas and co are revolting on the backbenches and Skinner is his hystrical lunatic self. Oh what joy.
Meanwhile Alan Johnson is busily telling anyone who’ll listen that he’s not up to the job, Harman will be planning her ‘Gulags for Dads’ campaign and the Milibands will be searching for the next banana skin they can slip up on.
And above it all there will be our Gordo planning his next International Rescue (Gordon was Thunderbird 4 wasn’t he?) and his next performance on Youtube
Perhaps we should be supportive of Gabble in his desperate prayers for a hung parliament. It could be an absolute hoot.
But of course there are the best interests of the nation to consider. Alas Brown must go………….
160
I have been thinking that all day. Anyone else remember Labour winning the GLC elections about three hundred years ago? When, on the morning after the night before, it was announced that the Politburo had removed John McThing and installed Chairman Ken and sod the lot of you. And so began the glorious Reign of Spart.
Could Simon Heffer back the Lib Dems?
It looks like being a traditional general election: bluster, bombast and lies
Will Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg ape his party rivals in duping the voters, asks Simon Heffer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/6938136/It-looks-like-being-a-traditional-general-election-bluster-bombast-and-lies.html
173 - I am sure the phrase ‘We can’t go on’ has been used before that too!
169 - 3 points finally! You can’t complain about the 2nd goal and we are now top-half but with 2 tough home fixtures to come… But yep, Stoke never do it the easy way!
174 jsfl
“Snarling Ed baring his teeth at any who dare suggest Brown goes”
In Scottish Labour politics, he would be the one that Brown trusted least.
171 And when Steve McIntyre pointed out that was rubbish - NASA changed it to 1934 - the last 15yrs have shown no statistically significant warming at all and we’ve got 10 yrs of cooling from 99 to date.
Here are a few articles at random from WUWT from Dec - there are loads of them
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/16/
170 Oldnat. Lower Largo looks lovely and I never knew Alexander Selkirk came from there, but why would it have been a suitable place for AnneJGP to be in General Practice?
175. I did have the 81 GLC at the back of my mind, but the Conservatives also alleged in (either 1951 or 1955, perhaps both) that if Labour won Attlee would quickly be ditched by Nye Bevan. The charge had some validity as in 1945 Herbert Morrison and allies had attempted to stage a coup to force a new leadership election before Attlee accepted office, which Morrison thought he would win. However Attlee went to the Palace and kissed hands before the plot could be carried out.
179. Oldnat
Indeed and the reason Ed will snarl so much on demand is that I suspect Gordon knows where the bodies are buried (particularly those regarding his little Treasury coterie - Balls, McBride, Darling, Cooper etc).
The Fiscal Responsibility debate, a flagship Queen’s Speech measure, supported by a grand total of ZERO Labour backbenchers.
Outstanding.
175. Yes, the Greater London Labour Party had a rule that the leader of the Labour group should be re-elected at the start of a new council. Leninspart deftly outmanoeuvred Andrew McIntosh:
“The day after the election, Livingstone challenged McIntosh for the leadership, and defeated him by 30 votes to 20. This was the culmination of a long process in which the left-wing of the party had organised to ensure its members were selected as GLC candidates, and all voted as a block within the Labour Party. They had also ensured that they had control of the Labour manifesto for the election.”
More here
162 Just had a pint of Speckled Hen on Hilary Benn at 40/1, not that he’d win, but were he to enter the fray it wouldn’t half mix things up a bit, plus these odds would be quartered. His Dad was never afraid of being the non-conformist.
175 I remember that well - the Tories saying that Labour would kick out McIntosh after the election,he was just the moderate front to a very left wing group, and Michael Foot denying it could or would happen. Poor Michael, he was such a dupe.
Either this whole story was a put-up job by someone or something else is definitely going on. A quick Twitter search provides this…
” PhilCane: RT @tscholesfogg: Confused re Tessa Jowell.Ed Miliband posted a tweet saying her name which-its now been deleted ”
And it’s not the only one. What is going on?
171
Sky News report this winter has been the coldest for 100 years in the Northern Hemisphere…
Oh dear.
The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, is considered by Labour types to be a safe pair of hands. That reputation has been damaged a little this evening. Earlier this evening, just before 6pm, at the beginning of his speech during a debate in the House of Commons he said… said in the Chamber earlier…
“We are not yet out of recession”
George Osborne immediately challenged him and he looked a little flustered. Why? Because it contradicts what he says about coming out of recession at the end of the last year.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/01/alistair-darling-disagrees-with-himself.html
181 AnneJGP
It is lovely, and the hotel serves very fine food!
There was a GP on Good Morning Scotland (like your Today programme) today pushing a partisan party line about it being the Government’s fault that she couldn’t get up the hill to Upper Largo.
When I subsequently checked your previous posts, I realised it couldn’t have been you.
188 Intriguing - Twitter seems to be a great source of indiscrete gossip which draws more attention to the issue once deleted!
All this ‘hung Parliament’ b’lox is giving me a pain in the wossname. It really is horsefeathers, you know - Labour spinners whistling in the dark and the MSM keeping their plates spinning for them, up there on those little poles, just because it suits them to get a feeling of suspense going in the hope that it’ll sell a few papers or (Sky) a bit of TV airtime. And the BBC does it because (oh… you can fill in the rest yourself).
I keep saying it. BIG TORY WIN. 50-100 majority.
Why you no rissen?
Every time some says ‘hung Parliament’ I remember thingy, Kiera Knightley’s character, saying to Captain Jack Sparrow, ‘It would never have worked, you know, Jack - us,’ to which Jack - after a second’s (perfect) pause - replies, ‘You keep telling yourself that, darlin’.’
190 - if true this is going to hurt Labour badly.
What does all that QE but you nowadays then?????
[180] - And when Steve McIntyre pointed out that was rubbish - NASA changed it to 1934 -
Don’t be an idiot Plato. The 1934 thing was for continental US data only. The statement at [171] is factually correct. Arguing with facts makes you look a bit stupid, which is not good for arguing your case.
194 Floater
I saw that section of the debate. Osborne tried to make a point, Darling simply pointed out that they didn’t have the Q4 figures yet.
Nothing significant.
[189] - It’s only January 5th. This winter hasn’t happened yet. Meanwhile I hear it is unusually warm in Newfoundland and Siberia, and the Arctic sea ice is still comfortably below the 1979-200 average.
See:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/01/
and:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html
Pimco (who are pulling out of UK bonds) apparently have their European funds run by Ed Balls’ Brother. See below…
“Et tu Pimco?”
Pimco, one of the world’s biggest bond funds, have followed up their decision to cut back on UK gilts by publicly deriding Labour’s existing deficit reduction plans. If Gordon Brown sticks to his plans, Pimco think there is an 80 per cent chance of a downgrade.
The irony of this is of course that Ed Balls’ brother Andrew (another fine former FT journalist) is currently in charge of managing Pimco’s European portfolio.
George Osborne just put it rather well in the Commons, saying the Pimco move “suggests that a lack of confidence in the chancellor’s abilities runs right across the Balls family”.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2010/01/et-tu-pimco/
196 - cheers, so did Darling not make the alleged statement then?
42
There is no chance of the Gas running out in 6 days time. The idea that there is only sixdays storage left is just absurd. LNG for instance will have been held in reserve, and there will be plenty in both the Rough and Morecambe fields, the mans a prat.
198 - “George Osborne just put it rather well in the Commons, saying the Pimco move “suggests that a lack of confidence in the chancellor’s abilities runs right across the Balls family”.”
LOL
197
“his winter hasn’t happened yet.”
IIRC the Met Office define winter as December to February. If so we are nearly half way through.
Daily Mail leader not holding back:
“To put it bluntly, Mr Darling is telling lies.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1240877/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Infantile-dishonest-downright-dodgy.html#ixzz0bmH2CC6x
197
“this winter hasn’t happened yet.”
IIRC the Met Office define winter as December to February. If so we are nearly half way through.
Apologies for multiple posts
203 - The URL is damning enough.
191 oldnat, thank you.
Incidentally it is snowing here (just, & very faintly). But very unusual right on the coast in south Devon.
If this cold spell continues for another couple of weeks, and continues to disrupt transport and industry, won’t this have a negative impact on the 1st Quarter GDP figures? Another reason to hold the GE before the figures come out in April. Or a convenient letout for Brown (This meteoroligical recession which started in America…..)
203 - I want to know, who the genius in Labour that came up with the idea of calling it a dossier.
Labour do not want the public being reminded of Iraq and the dodgy dossier therein
Mandy returns
But his mood turned sour before Christmas. Those who spoke to him during that period heard a man frustrated by the prime minister’s lack of focus, decision-making capacity and strategic guile.
Even though Mandelson oversaw the early morning media and strategy call with key No 10 officials, he was finding it increasingly difficult to ensure that the decisions taken that morning were implemented. Few in No 10 seemed capable of telling the prime minister when he was wrong. On Afghanistan, for instance, Brown had finally got his act together but for long periods seemed unable to focus in a sustained way.
At one point Mandelson seemed exasperated by Brown’s ability to communicate. The problem was that he simply could not communicate with the electorate. “He did not intuit.” The comparison with Tony Blair was left unsaid.
There was then the strange, albeit brief, period when Mandelson toyed with returning to Europe in the new role of the EU’s foreign policy supremo. Brown had initially given his blessing to David Miliband, the foreign secretary, taking the job when the offer came. But when Miliband declined, Brown barred Mandelson from putting himself forward. The thinking appeared to be that it would not reflect well on the Brownite ship if rats deserted a vessel so soon after rejoining it.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/05/peter-mandelson-gordon-brown-tensions
208. What it also will do is push up the price of fresh food and some other products as we were already heading for 5% RPI inflation before Easter.
O/T: Having had a Daschund many years ago, how can people abandon dogs like this…
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/01/04/article-0-07C1C79C000005DC-757_634×477.jpg
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240589/The-dog-WAS-just-Christmas—thousands-pets-abandoned-festive-season-ends.html
I hope they can all find caring homes.
204
Statistically Feb. is the coldest month, the coldest day being ironically Feb 14th.
204 Madasafish. Irrespective of climate change, seasons do seem to be a bit muddled up nowadays.
199 floater
He used the words, but, as I said he explained that the Q4 figures weren’t yet out. I have no time for him or Osborne, but if people try to make anything of it, it will appear (and be) petty.
The Q4 figures should be out in a couple of weeks(?). Make the play then.
As mother just said - ‘Global warming? Bring it on!’
85. I guess if we get Q4 positive growth figures announced in a couple of weeks, a budget would give Brown/Darling the opportunity to gloat about the end of the recession?
by GIN January 5th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
I guarantee there will be a good set of Q4 figures one way or another as Brown could not survive anything else. Whether you choose to believe them though is a completly different scenario.
First sound bite ‘out of the blocks’ then for Brown will be
“I brought the country out of recession don’t let the Tories wreck the economy now” Repeated ad nauseum up to election day.
It it wasn’t so sad and bad it would be quite funny really.
“Telegraph View: If politicians continue to insist that fantasy electioneering should come before the restoration of economic stability, then the markets will mete out a painful punishment indeed.”
Not happy with Tory or Labour parties
“The associated likelihood that our debt will become harder to finance, just as the Bank of England prepares to end its programme of quantitative easing (which has kept up demand for the massive quantity of government gilts being issued), is a bleak one for the British economy, and makes the overheated name-calling among politicians look dangerously irresponsible. It had been widely assumed that the markets would suspend judgment on our medium-term economic prospects until after polling day.”
“It is not just the markets that are unimpressed. The Labour-dominated Treasury Select Committee is today expected to record its own disappointment at the lack of a credible plan for cutting the deficit. This is creating evident tension at the heart of government. On Sunday, Gordon Brown said that any proceeds from stronger-than-expected growth should be used to boost spending; 24 hours later, the more responsible Alistair Darling said that such proceeds should be used to cut borrowing. This discord is dangerously destabilising,”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/6938141/These-electoral-games-come-at-a-high-price.html
The future is not bright, its been ruined by Brown
208
Of course it could actually boost some things.
http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/supermarket-sales-warm-up-as-big-freeze-hangs-on-1858210.html
208 Mines a Pint. Looking at LabourList just now, I noticed a comment that said the Unions’ funding for the Election campaign won’t be released until April at the earliest.
Peter Thompson: “the Union element of New Labour’s war chest (around £6 million) will not be made available until April at the earliest.”
http://www.labourlist.org/david-cameron-general-election-about-poster-diana-smith
195 TLZ and you mention Siberian temperatures.
There are some very odd things going on with the station data sets for Russia as I’m sure you are aware.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/16/russian-iea-claims-cru-tampered-with-climate-data-cherrypicked-warmest-stations/
219
from your ref
“George thermal underwear by 1,000 per cent ”
I can recommend it. Also B&M thermals. When it’s -8C and you are old like me, every little helps…
219 - wife was telling me a little aerlier that there had been panic buying at our local supermarket.
Mother in law also confirms same where they live in Surrey.
*scratches head and shrugs*
203 Does your linking of this mean IT was Darling after all?
219. Would not panic buying, if that’s what’s driving sales, only bring forward expenditure from later in the quarter, and be concentrated on essentials? As an aside, I noticed the shelves in the local supermarket were unusually bare this evening. They are often depeleted in early January but this was much more noticable than anything I’ve seen before. People stockpiling?
214
AnneGP
I believe the Met Office uses:
Dec-Feb winter
Mar- May spring
Jun -Aug Summer
Sep - Nov Autumn
If so timothy’s claim is unfounded.
(do I detct warmists getting anxious?)
218
That would be the paper edited by the ‘thirsty’ brother of Gordon’s hilariously confused Bunker spokesman?
http://order-order.com/2010/01/05/prime-ministers-spokesman-simon-lewis-blunders-again/
Balls brothers, Lewises. All shopkeeper brothers today, innit?
213 - and if Ted Heath had gone for 14 Feb 1974 rather than 2 weeks later - who knows? - he may well have won and we’d have missed out on the Blessed Margaret….
Not sure if this has been posted before:
“Gordon Brown warned off core-vote strategy as rift with Mandelson grows”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6937514/Lord-Mandleson-Gordon-Brown-rift.html
As a once expert shop keeper type, my highly trained retail nose tells me that lots of snow which stops people going out their houses is going to bugger up retail sales somewhat and further push back any potential economic growth.
Still the snow matches Darlings hair nicely.
That idiot that said we’d run out of Gas in six days time should have read this.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/6936174/QandA-will-the-spike-in-UK-gas-prices-push-up-your-bills.html
Quite a reasonable article.
Interruption of major industrial consumers power stations etc, is quite usual,(they are contractually obliged to hold an alternative supply distillate not coal as so many journalists keep saying ) don’t think hospital trusts will be interrupted.
As for another Rough field, there were plans to purchase the Hewitt field for storage, but they were abandoned when BG was privatised.
From the link:
“A close friend of Lord Mandelson told The Daily Telegraph last month: “Peter thinks that Gordon has used him to stay in place and has now just disposed of him. He clearly thinks he has served his purpose and Peter is upset about that.” “
197. So where are we now? about mid-autumn? Very very very very late summer? If as you rather rudely said to Plato “Arguing with facts makes you look a bit stupid”, how do you think contending that January 5 is not winter makes you look?
226 madasafish
S0d the Met Office!
I use
Nov-Mar Winter
Apr-mid Jul Spring
14 Jul Summer
mid Jul-Oct Autumn
We have won the election.
A great night to be Conservative. David can book the removal van now.
“Lord Mandelson fears election ‘doom’
(…)An ex-Cabinet minister who has not previously criticised Mr Brown is also understood to be weighing a public attack on his leadership.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240902/Lord-Mandelson-fears-election-doom.html
And finally,
“The UK government has said it is “disappointed” the Copenhagen climate talks did not achieve legal commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
But Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband said there had been “significant progress” towards a treaty and that attitudes were shifting…”
Not sure they’re going the way Miliband Jnr wants
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8442290.stm
232. If Peter Mandelson left the government, it would be goodbye Vienna. PM would want to enact his revenge colder and sweeter..
The bullies seem to be trying to bully each other.
Stories about what Mandy thinks don’t get into the papers by accident. He’s putting pressure on Brown using his old and well worn methods.
226 - Somebody said to me, the warmists are getting a bit hot under the collar
I read somewhere in the media that a boy in the lower North Sea monitering surface temp has droped 4 degrees in the last few weeks. They say if the cold air flow continues it may mean the sea surface freezes!
Nite all - my snow has arrived and is of the soggy variety - oh goody, it’ll be like defrosting the freezer in the morning rather than fun snowballs.
The wrong sort of snow strikes again
239. boy = Bouy
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-January-6-2010/Media-Gallery/201001115515045?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15515045_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_January_6%2C_2010
243 Bouy = Buoy
Darling said “We are not yet out of recession”
George Osborne immediately challenged him and he looked a little flustered. Why? Because it contradicts what he says about coming out of recession at the end of the last year.
by Scott P January 5th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
Gabble described Camerons to be ‘a disaster’ yesterday
what say you about Darling then and on top of the VAT cock up yesterday as well?
http://wwws-a.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/files/research/in-the-round/IFG_making%20minority%20government_final%20proof%2020%20nov%2009.pdf
“The required swing is more than at all post-war elections save for Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide. Six months before that election, the Labour Party had a lead of around 25% (as opposed to the 10-15% advantage enjoyed by the Conservatives today), which eventually narrowed to a 12.5% margin at the poll.
This means that a hung parliament is a real possibility, whose implications ought to be thought through in advance.”
241 Martin Day
Poor boy!
South London is going to be fun in the morning one suspects. It’s snowing!
245. Constan Treader January 5th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
Bugger Buoy, I tried doint it your way the first time but it did not look right so i tried it the other way.
Hugely ignorant on this as on much else, so correct me if I’m wrong: I thought that the global warming theory implies wider extremes of weather in all ways, and doesn’t project a continual, literal warming in all places.
Nancy Pelosi goes into public relations meltdown, throws Obama under the bus:
“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) engaged in a testy exchange with reporters Tuesday — and even took a shot at President Barack Obama — as she defended the closed-door health care negotiations.
When asked about a letter from C-SPAN CEO Brian Lamb urging congressional leaders to open up the negotiations [to the cameras] — a move that would make good on Obama’s campaign promise — Pelosi shot back: “There are a number of things he was for on the campaign trail.”"
http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0110/Pelosi_takes_swipe_at_Obama_campaign_promises.html
242 Our forecast 24 hours of snow, with 25cm plus has not arrived and doubt it will. Met Office boobed again and its centred to the East, missed South West Wilts as it traversed (local forecasts were still forecasting it at 6pm). So all those who stocked up (and they were), stayed overnight near work (as some people I now did) and the road crews and local farmers in readiness for snow clearing can breathe a sigh of relief and hundreds of disappointed kids will have to wait for the school buses in the morning.
241/343 - In my best Captain Mainwaring voice
“You stupid Buoy”
241- Oh no, its “The Day After Tomorrow”!!!
248 - Where are you?
Oh, eck.
I drove in in the end. Luckily the Glasgow office seem to have got finished relatively quickly so maybe I can get out early.
I’d better get a shift on before I have to spend all day in Wapping.
LibDem Voice…
Yup, you read that headline right. For those are the surprising figures from the 2009 European Election expense returns which have just been published.
In 2009 the Conservatives spent £2,482,536 on election expenses for the European elections, just ahead of Labour on £2,302,244 with the Liberal Democrats on £1,180,883.
However, while the Labour figure was up 35% on the 2004 European elections, the Conservatives had cut their spending by 21%. The Liberal Democrat spending was 1% lower.
UKIP spent £1,270,855, a cut of 46%.
In the elections the Conservatives, UKIP and Liberal Democrats each gained a seat while Labour lost five. (Seat change figures based on notional results from 2004 taking into account reduction in number of MEPs in several regions.)
http://www.libdemvoice.org/european-election-expenses-17444.html
246 Gordon’s gaffe on intelligence, Darling’s gaffe on VAT were not Headline Gaffes because they weren’t exclusively delivered to Nick Robinson to be misconstrued.
Only BBC exclusives count.
254. Stars and Stripes January 5th, 2010 at 10:35 pm
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooo!
Gordon Brown would get emergency powers!
252 We’ve had about 4″ of snow in the last five hours here in South Oxfordshire. And it is currently snowing like a b*stard - huge great flakes.
Haven’t seen snow stacking up like this since we got 18″ a night, every night for about five days, at the Sundance Film Festival in Park City, Utah.
Which was nice…
The low pressure over central England depending on how it pans out could have missed wiltshire to start with but as it developes and rotates come back and give some snow.
This whole “non-story” has been rumoured to give a smokescreen to the Tory shambles on transferrable married allowance.
The “government-in-waiting” had not realised that it would cost £4.9 billion.
So much for meticulous preparation. Osborne should not be allowed to run a corner shop.
259- I imagine that kind of weather brings England to a standstill.
236. What is that on Tessa Jowell? She looks like a Russian Easter egg with a velvet lei on. If Gordon is really such a “goer” they should conceive a baby together, and it will grow up to be the worst-dressed person in the world and blind the Tory populace with its secret weapon of a giant neon paisley muumuu.
In fact, I think they should build the campaign around the strategic deployment of the muumuu baby.
250. “I thought that the global warming theory implies wider extremes of weather in all ways”
The problem being, extremes tend to be anecdotal rather than quantifiable. For example, we have just experienced an ‘extreme’ Atlantic hurricane season - not a single hurricane made landfall in the USA, and there were only two altogether. If the warmists cite this in support of their theory they really are capable of twisting everything.
Mason on Newsnight - saying “with absolute certainty” the UK will be out of recession on 26th January.
Labour = winter of discontent!
Worst weather since 1979
Thanks labour!!!
260 Martin, we seem to be in the eye with rotation around us, forecast was for us to be off centre with pulses of heavy snow travelling along. That seems to be much further East which is lucky for the Home Counties who can play with snowballs and build snowmen while we just freeze.
Paxo on the economy: “The corpse of the fabled Prudence is putrefying on the coroner’s table.”
No complaints about lefty bias there, then.
263- Yes, we’re now in the realm of religion, not science, if literally everything that can happen somehow only further proves the theory.
256 SthLondon Nick
Scottish Euro elections cost
Lab £228,703 : 229,863 votes (each vote cost 99p)
Con £156,634 : 185,794 votes (each vote cost 84p)
L_D £105,419 : 127,038 votes (each vote cost 83p)
SNP £126,170 : 321,007 votes (each vote cost 39p)
Money isn’t everything!
266. Ted January 5th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
Oh well, you never know with this kind of weather, it can turn out highly unpredictable at times.
195
Yes but which figures are you talking about Timothy? The real figures or the ‘Value Enhanced’ version that NASA GISS doctors to get the results they want?
North Sea temperatures have plummeted over the past two weeks. One observation buoy off the Kent coast has measured a four-degree drop since Christmas,” he said
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/149758/Arctic-chill-to-last-3-more-weeks
269 - Oldnat, what was interesting is that the Tory spend was down and they still did well. Actually bearing in mind how most politicians were being treated I’m not sure spending much was worthwhile…
several airports are closed
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Weather-Travel-In-South-Hit-By-Snow—Airports-Close-In-London-And-Across-Region/Article/201001115514754?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15514754_Weather%3A_Travel_In_South_Hit_By_Snow_-_Airports_Close_In_London_And_Across_Region
If it takes two successive quarters of negative growth to cause a recession then how is it it only takes one of positive growth to come out of it?
Such accountancy practices seem a bit hinky to me…..
Martin = new sensible weather analyst
Ave it = Con gain everything!
270 true, but note that when I looked at Accuweather at the weekend it forecast minimal snow Tuesday with some Wednesday. The 25cm plus was Met Office/BBC.
274 ty labour - never happened 1979 - 1992!!!!!!
There does seem to be some major problems on the A3(M) tonight, south of where it meets the A3. Have a look at this traffic camera:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/hampshire/webcams/camera.shtml?h=han&camid=15090®ion=SU&mapregion=bbc_new_south
Reports of people being stuck in the traffic for several hours just like the M11 a few years ago…
244 - ooh - ooh - front page of the Telegraph is the frozen Bridgewater Canal in Sale - that’s where I live! How exciting. It IS rather snowy here, but I’m a little surprised it’s front page news.
258 Never bet against that happening… This is Brown, remember.
Householders to be forced into using slop buckets for waste food or face penalty fines
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1240740/Tories-new-age-agriculture-plan-crackdown-power-supermarkets.html
slop buckets now,you be better off in the nick
Will Hutton is being humiliated on Newsnight. Paxman is exasperated by his pro-Brown spin.
During the winter of 1997/98, some of us from the Glasgow office of my then employer were visiting our Southampton HQ during some uncharacteristically snowy weather (for Hampshire). One of our Southampton colleagues caused hysterics when she said she had never seen six inches before.
276. Ave it January 5th, 2010 at 10:56 pm
I should have become a weather forecaster as i find it most interesting and become a regional forecaster on ITV (BBC = Commies!!!) and then done an austin mitchell!!! (He was a News reporter though but the same thing).
Dire Newsnight ‘economic’ panel - Stelzer, Tett and (worst of all) Hutton. It really is a tired and clapped out programme.
To be fair there has been a fair bit of sniggering with some people saying they are expecting 6 inches tonight.
Behold, global cooling in all its glory.
*** COMPETITION ***
This the speech which was not uttered by whoever-it-wasn’t, deep in the Bunker earlier this evening. Who said it first?
‘I have no more sympathy with you feculent maggots and no more patience to pretend otherwise. Gentlemen, I wash my hands of this weirdness.’
Helluva goodbye, I feel, and appropriate to the situation in, oh, so many ways.
285 its ok cos it will be snowing on labour soon!!!!!!!!!!
Con gain grimsby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Global warming = labour con to make us pay more taxes!!!!!!
Under labour its even colder than the ice age!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
272 - Martin, it does seem that every extreme / change / cold snap / phew what a scorcher deviation from what people expect, such as the (thankfully) uneventful hurricane season, or the failure of El Nino to arrive as scheduled, is therefor undeniable ‘proof’ of global warming.
It’s a bit like creation science - it’s not science it’s religion, but upon being discredited comes back as intelligent design, with a pseudo-scientific underpinning.
This global warming is the same - masquerading as science but it’s not very good.
282 johnno - I’m old enough to remember “pig bins” for food waste. Scraps were collected and used as pig food.
289 Mandy?
If we have a particularly cold on Snowy winter all the way through it could have political effects as well. Labour canvassing in the North and Scotland is going to be particularly hard hit as those areas will in all likelyhood be most resistant to any thaw/milder conditions. As Labour have only really got canvassing to go on apart from the election leaflets themselves, they could really be screwed!!!
Even if folk do go canvassing and it is cold, not many will come to the door for fear of letting out expensive heat.
289 - Captain Jack Sparrow
289 Prodicus. Sounds like seanT to me.
292 Roffle
There is no such thing as global warming - it is a labour lie!!!
Under labour-
- its all time cold!
- fuel bills are the highest ever!
- old people are being frozen to death!! That did not happen under Tories - we looked after the old!!
- labour hate old people cos they vote Tory!!!
294 - Heh. You win the peanut, TSE.
its really slow posting - is labour running the site now?!
299 - It is slow, robert moved the server the other night, and we have a few gremlins
291. Tim B January 5th, 2010 at 11:08 pm
Yes if there was a problem with global warming, what you would do is explode a tactical nuclear weapon in the ring of fire on a large and highly explosive volcano (Not a supervolcano) near a big population.
If Global warming was ‘real’ then they say places like that would be unihabitable so you create an ash plum that cools and kill hundreds of thousands/ millions of people as a sacrifice for everybody else.
I was at a hustings meeting (remember them?) years ago - I mean YEARS ago, when John Wakeham MP (Maggie’s horse-Whip, nice fellah), just for the laugh which he duly got, produced Met Office stats which genuinely showed that it had rained more under Labour governments than under Conservatives govts.
298 - Chocolate or salted peanut?
282 Re. food scraps. Nowadays we use corn starch bags as liners for the “slop” bin - much more hygienic.
301- The best thing about AGW is it is conveniently just the right size for a problem: big enough to require massive government intervention and micromanagement of people’s lives, but not so big as to be hopelessly unmanageable as long as we act NOW!!!
305 Aw, hell, have both. Hang the expense. Taxpayer’s money. Vote Labour.
307 - I’ve give up chocolate.
Though I could murder a fag
307. Prodicus January 5th, 2010 at 11:19 pm
Mr Balls would you like your nuts chocolate coated or salted?
309 AnneJGP
Serves you right for threatening to recycle Lower Largo!
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota) is retiring. This is a very likely GOP pickup, regardless of who the candidates are, in this state that gave McCain a strong win last year:
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2010/01/05/dorgan-retiring/
(this won’t make malc0980989809809808098980ken very happy…)
310 Those wishing to undertake Balls-salting duties, the line forms on the Right.
312 oldnat. When did I do that? My cycling days are long gone!
re 252 the Met Office do respond to complaints and investigate them. I complained last week about a day long forecast of heavy snow for Birmingham. There wasn’t a flake, or even a rain drop all day. But to be fair they were right today and it’s still coming down.
235.
“David can book the removal van now”
It’ll have to be a big one if he’s going to cram all his Bliarite dishonesty in there.
Mirror bloke @MirrorJames tweets: ‘Tessa may not be jumping ship but that doesnt mean there wont be one last go at ditching the captain’
315 AnneJGP
314 I’m only interested in Balls-salting duties if you can guarantee that he will shrivel like a slug…
236.
““Lord Mandelson fears election ‘doom’”
Another Bliar witch (one who’s careless with the Cherry Blossom) deserting Jonah Sparrow?
Hubble bubble.. Tory yacht trouble…….
316 - It has just started snowing in South Wiltshire, oddly enough it is the warmest it has been for the past week.
321 - Wage Slave, seriously, would it be possible to post in English that all of us could understand once in a while?
@MirrorJames : Its all “very volatile” according to one senior ex-Cabinet minister
Can we stop talking about Balls
http://jamblichus.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/edballs.jpg
322 SimonStClare
Obvious you aren’t used to snow! The temperature normally rises a little with snow.
325 Argh…
Snow watch: Coming down damn hard in Wapping now.
The cold weather is just God’s way of telling us to burn more Catholics at the stake
Is it tonight the Christmas decorations are supposed to come down?
Hilarious evening.
Who would have believed it if, three years ago, someone had predicted that New Labour, that great, disciplined, on-message, election-winning machine, would come to this - and in the run-up to an election too?
323 Oracle, don’t engage with wageslave - you’ll only encourage *it*. No doubt we’ll be subjected to a poem or some other nonsense shortly.
330
No, tomorrow (6th).
330. Yep if you don’t take then down tonight you’re supposed to leave them up all year else you’ll have bad luck…..
Finished taking mine down…
330 Tomorrow (I hope! Or Gordon’s just won the election, to provide my own hell of bad luck for the coming year!
)
Looking at MirrorJames twitter it is quite revealing, a vast number of the posts are all about “Dave”, none mention the great qualities of our Great Leader.
I think him and Muckguire need to be sent to DA (Dave’s Anonymous), I hear they run them along the lines of TA (Thatcher Anonymous) and SCA (Shadow Cabinet Anonymous) sessions, set up to try and help the left wing comedians and likes of a certain poster on PB get over their compulsory obsessive behaviour towards the likes of Thatcher after 25 years.
re 330 well today is the 12th day of Christmas but it always seems strange to me not to leave them up for the Epiphany, and the church keeps the seasonal colour until Sunday. If you’re really proper you can leave them up until Candlemas - certainly some South American cities do.
compulsory -> compulsive
Re 333. And for those who disagree school kids know about these things…..
http://www.woodlands-junior.kent.sch.uk/CUSTOMS/Xmas/twelfth.htm
Just in case anyone’s missed Gordon saying that if a governing party loses its majority it has lost its mandate to govern, here it is again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7enLKrxLrI&
336. Chris A January 5th, 2010 at 11:37 pm
I didnt bother putting any up as I hate taking the bloody things dow!
325 Eddie Balls? Check out these two sweethearts -
http://static.guim.co.uk/Guardian/politics/gallery/2008/apr/04/edballs.labour/burnham2-7019.jpg
326 – oldnat, I was a sky instructor for ten years, trust me, I know a little about snow.
But we have had -5 here for the past few days and all of a sudden it jumped to +5 and started raining. Us southern puffs always over-react when it snows, it’s the thin blood and lager what does it.
Oops, Sky = Ski
342 sky instructor.. interesting job!
322/326 Snow formation is an exothermic reaction. It’s all to do with the amount of energy released once the molecules of liquid cease to roam around and settle down into crystalline structure. May have got that wrong, too many decades since I was last in a chemistry classroom.
This is funny too.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/jan/05/peter-mandelson-gordon-brown-tensions
‘Peter Mandelson back in Brown fold …..
The left wing news operation trying to gather in before the man who runs the farmy farm looses his sheep.
331. Richard Nabavi January 5th, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Me - I always thought Brown was a bag of B0ll0cks as PM!
Labour are doomed -DOOMED to defeat!
343 SimonStClare
Glad you made the correction. I thought you worked for Murdoch!
334 Talking of superstitions no I mean traditions, the Germans have a saying that if you raise your glass to say ‘cheers’ (or equiv) to your drinking companion and you do not look them in the eye as you say it you will have seven years’ bad s^x. Think about it. It explains a lot. To me.
347 I thought the in-fighting was meant to start after the election; Labour are going for it already!
350 - I like the German tradition of opening Christmas presents on christmas eve.
350. If you walk round a dead Parrot three times anti-clockwise and forget to spit at it thats bad luck as well.
350 Prodicus
So those 5 guys I didn’t look in the eye at University ….. it’s obviously cumulative!
330, 334, 335. The Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas this Thursday, just in case you haven’t yet tired of festive cheer.
Heavy snow falling in West London now; tomorrows going to be fun!
Is any of this hitting the TV screens yet? Have to say that I don’t catch TV news everyday - rather proving the point Mike’s made in another thread.
354 - [Sympathy] ! Tsk. Poor old soul… No, don’t mock. Such a hard lesson. There is no F in ‘justice’, is there?
347. SallyC January 5th, 2010 at 11:43 pm
Do Peter Mandelson and Gordon Brown have nothing better to do than hang around in docks?
355 History Boy
It was still celebrated in Aberdeenshire, when I was young. It was known as “Auld ‘Eel” (Old Yule), although it was always subsidiary to Hogmanay.
350 - I’d kill for some bad sex right now.
Gideon on very fine form in the Commons today, shredding Darling, Brown, Balls and the Treasury in one sentence. Slurp. Attaboy.
Bloody hell, I go onto the #10 photostream just to see what propaganda they are sticking up there these days. Does a day go by without Gordo visiting a school / college or meeting the school kids at #10?
361 TSE
Mandelson?
OMG ‘Lord’ McNally has just called Mandy a ‘little ray of sunshine’. I feel queasy now. Good night.
364 - I don’t think anything can kill Mandy
360. Old Nat.
Yes, “Old Christmas” (25 December by the Julian calendar) was still printed in diaries until quite recently. Throughout the 19th Century it happened to coincide with Epiphany (the 12th day of Christmas by the Gregorian calendar) but the two calendars became detached by another day in 1900 which was not a leap year according to Gregory. In the fulness of time the Orthodox church will be celebrating Christmas in mid-summer.
Better that Martin than sending Brown into schools all the time and allowing him to smile his at the kids.
366. I might add that ‘Yule’ should be celebrated on the solstice, and not by the Christian calendar.
368. SallyC January 5th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
When Gordon Brown is touring somewhere now i look at the people working away in the background, Brown was at some Boiler place today and groups of engineers were talking in the background, I could have sworn someone did a handsignal aimed at Brown!
Marching on together: how Gordon Brown, just like Leeds, can still pull off a shock
Aged eight in 1970, I fell in love with both Leeds United and the Labour Party. We’ve been together through thick and thin ever since.
http://www.labourlist.org/marching-on-together-how-gordon-brown-just-like-leeds-can-still-
Arhh so you have always liked to support a load of dirty fouling cheating bar-stewards then….Not sure bringing up the 1970’s Leeds United team was probably a good analogy, they weren’t exactly known for their fair play attitude.
361. you sound like an Ipswich trucker
Night all.
“John Rentoul: I know a man who can keep the New Labour flame burning
(…)All too often in Labour politics, what should happen and what is likely to happen are two different things. But, by a happy congruence, the leader of the Labour Party after the next election both should be and probably will be David Miliband.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-i-know-a-man-who-can-keep-the-new-labour-flame-burning-1858850.html
@361:
If only there were a Cornish sex memoirist to hand who’d won a bad sex award…
370 - It does make you wonder when the official hand picked best photo of the visit is this,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/downingstreet/4247849424/
It does him no favours what so ever. Interacting with the student, nope, looking relaxed and comfortable, nope, appearing to be being ignored and looking like a right lemon, ding ding ding….
370. Martin, that’s why he usually sticks to meeting primary school kids.
369 History Boy
Not for us. Remember that we didn’t celebrate Xmas at all till the 1950s. The mid-winter festivals moved around a bit, but they ween’t Christion in most of Scotland till post-war.
Looking at the photo, was the guy doing a hand gesture Ed?
371 re. The Damned United… Clough…Brown…
‘To recap: the protagonist takes over the management of a team from a legendary predecessor. Over the previous 13 years they have been transformed from also-rans to undisputed champions, albeit champions hated all over the country for their unsportsmanlike, dirty style. But our hero proves to have the reverse Midas touch; instead of taking them onwards and upwards to ever greater successes, the hitherto unbeatable team start losing almost immediately, all his players quickly grow to loathe him, and he is gone in record time.’
Mr E ponders who on earth might have given Brown that DVD for Christmas, and why.
http://mreugenides.blogspot.com/2010/01/damned-labour.html
Have I got one in moderation? It just disappeared.
FFS, BBC News channel just read out a message from Gordon Brown on Twitter telling people to help their neighbours in the snow…
Ah.
378. Old Nat. At least you didn’t call it ‘Winterval’!
Having consumed 3 glasses of your finest export this evening I must take my leave. Good night.
383 History Boy
Glad you enjoyed the Irn Bru !
381 Maybe his election campaign will consist of visiting kids and communicating via twitter.
381 Brown would be using the ‘Twatter’ service; I cannot see him helping out his neighbour. He’s more likely to be burying Darling under a massive snowball than coming to his assistance.
It’s just occurred to me. Every single journo, every one of them, including those who support him, has written him off as Party Leader, never mind PM. They are unanimous that he’s gone after the election, win or lose. Or hung parliament, of course - heh. They are all betting on who will succeed him. He really is a dead Leader walking.
How on earth can that feel? Unless he’s numb, of course.
I’ve just located the woman who originated the theory of anthropogenic global warming:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0c5yClip4o
388 S&S - I gave up listening to her crackpot theory after 3 minutes. What a whackjob.
BBC News now covering the government boiler scrappage scheme. What tripe - cones hotline v2.0. I’m going to bed.
Nytol.
Are we there yet?
389- Sorry to annoy you… I found it absolutely inspired!
James Macintyre: Jowell, anti-Brown plotters and ‘the last throw of the dice’
PM remains ‘paranoid’ and ‘obsessed’ about a move against him
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2010/01/brown-labour-leadership
394 -
“He was visibly relieved by recent polls showing a Labour upturn in the polls, especially a pre-Christmas report in the Guardian under the headline “Labour back in the race”. But Brown has also reacted angrily to specific polling showing that he himself is unpopular, a liability”
He really does live in la la land doesn’t he.
394 SthLondon Nick
Not a bad article. The Bunker references ring true, as the situation is reminiscent of the chaos in Berlin 1944 - and no, I’m not in any way comparing Labour to the Nazis. Simply that the conflicts of power within an organisation where democracy has been degraded gives rise to some parallels.
I think when finally Gordo is dragged out of No.10 kicking and screaming, in the coming years there are going to be extremely interesting books about the goings on behind the scenes. I get that feeling that the Thick of It is close to a documentary showing a GOOD day in the Bunker…
Off Topic…two late night snippets
For weather watchers amongst you, I recommend:
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
And in unrelated news, it is reported that Sam Mendes (American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Jarhead, etc) is to direct the next 007 film.
It’s being reported that Iran’s ambassador to Norway is seeking asylum there, according to Norwegian television…
A cross-party group of MPs and peers have called on the main parties to make a manifesto pledge not to allow the UK’s population to exceed 70 million.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8442662.stm
400 Oracle
Well I don’t mind if the UK is reduced by 5m Scots!
Goodnight.
401 - Where are we at with the SNP referendum on independence?
401 – oldnat, err deportation, independence or culling..?
MPs are demanding more details on the government’s spending plans and that these must be made clear in the budget.
That is exactly why there will not be a budget, or at least a real one, before the election. If that demand were met the gaff would be well and truly blown. Brown would melt if he had to come clean.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/6936928/MPs-demand-more-detail-about-public-spending-cuts.html
395/396 - Oracle/oldnat. What I liked about the article is that it did seem to get to the heart of the matter. His improved confidence in the run up to Christmas was notable (particularly at PMQs) but I wonder if this will be pushed back again within these rumours. I honestly thought (and no doubt he would) that by now the chances of his disposal were at an end and yet they are not. In fact these are likely to drag on through the pre-campaign and possibly into it. The paranoia ran through the Blair-Brown arguments within government and I actually thought it would fade away from Brown’s demeanour once he got into power. Instead it has just remained. The tragedy for him will always be that any hope of his actually being a good PM has long been lost in this paranoia, whether it was about Blair handing over or him actually keeping his job. Actually looking back you can see why he backed out of the election in 2007. He was paranoid he would no longer keep the PM job he wanted for so long. Inside, this fear must really eat him up and in that respect I feel a little sympathy for the man. After all, we probably all have our little fears/foibles which we keep down or hidden. To have one become such a part of one’s psyche must be terrifying.
In terms of the raw politics, the Spectator compared it to the end of the Major govt and this strikes me as true and that is why I can’t see Labour winning the next election. The question is can the Tories & SNP take advantage. We can only hope that we don’t get more trip-ups like yesterday…
An interesting day politically.
If we believe what we read then,
Brown remains very insecure in his leadership
BUT
All, including D Miliband realise that to challenge him would be worse than to let events run their course
AND
D Miliband is not a bottler but a thoughtful thinker.
SO
Brown limps on with his terminal leadership and goes down to a major GE defeat;
D Miliband takes over as Labour leader after the next GE;
Yours truly lands some tasty bets!
Every snowman has a carrot, as they say in Iceland.
Perhaps Hattie is next to leave the cabinet
Isn’t she up before the courts very shortly? Would look very bad for her to be convicted…
*crosses fingers*
Showing a ferrets in a sack mentality, and with concerns about contunuing on the gravy train, (never mind being in government), labour MP’s think they have a chance with someone else and not Brown.
If not above 30% by late January then a new messiah will be required so that Brown (and Iraq)can be partly expunged. No room for sentiment, this is troughing we are talking about, as per the 1689 bill of rights this is sacrosanct and means that every attempt must be made to maintain the status quo at worst.
Now all labour need is the muslim protest from Wootton Basset and the crowds cheering the BNP counter demonstration to support the troops and the labour policy on multiculturalism will be shown up for what it was, a way to gain new urban voters which has spectacularly backfired.
Get every Tory candidate at the demonstration, showing their wrath, and the tory vote will harden if not actually increase.
It would be great to see the BNP and the UAF on the same side for once, although the UAF will have psychological issues saying anything bad about any muslim group even if they are actively supporting the tallybannies!
394. SthLondon Nick January 6th, 2010 at 12:35 am
One MP tonight wistfully floated the idea that Brown could “miraculously” be found a “saving the world” job such as head of the International Monetary Fund.
Crikey, do Labour folk really think they (other countries) would want him in a position like that? They may say semi nice things to him in public but i reckon his ears must burn when discussion behind closed doors turn to him.
Gordon Brown is out of touch. I think, many folk in swing seats will have come to the conclusion Brown is not fit for office the day of the reshuffle after the Euro-elections.
Surprised a web viral has not come out! (IN English - the germans do a downfall comedy of it IIRC!!!
) Crikey i though John Major was crap from 1994/5 onwards - what must it feel like to be a Labour supporter with Brown?!!!!
409. redcliffe62 January 6th, 2010 at 1:17 am
If the militant Muslim crowd do that march, I hope there is no policing of it. The media should not turn up either.
I dont think they would try it again……..
Once again I think it’s quite important to consider the fact that Labour only has to lose 24 seats at the next election for Gordon Brown’s self-stated position to come into force on the subject of how a government which has lost its overall majority has no mandate to govern:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7enLKrxLrI&
Oh well, it looks as though GB will stay onto the GE
But, you never know, he may yet walk.
Martin, I wonder how many muslims would actually go there and actively support against the muslims who want to bring about PR chaos fore their brethren.
If you have a protest against the policies of the government then protest in London. That is where it needs to be, althought he media would take less interest.
If you protest at a scene where dead are returned then another message is being attempted, one I find offensive.
I do however agree with Orde, he of ex Norn Ireland dramas, who says that the demo should not be banned.
But if 1000 muslims protest for it and 10 turn up who are against it, then i think it will send a message to the WWC that there is underlying ACTIVE support for muslim terrorists in certain areas of England. That point needs to be proved, but this will be a visual message when people vote their position with their feet.
It would be great if buses of BRITISH muslims left leicester and other cities and held union jacks and said they appreciated their religious freeedom, but it has never happened before and no reason to think it will happen now. When the cricket is on the 2nd generation cheer for Pakistan not England. With a war on which side do they cheer?
If the BNP were to call all PARTIES AND GROUPS including the UAF and say this is an all party fight against extremism it would pull the feet from Islam4UK, but they have not got the balls to do it, fence sitters who have a simple agenda and these nasty real problems cloud that agenda. If the tories and labour and libs said they would not share a platform against this group then the BNP would be valid in saying only they care about what is going on to the WWC, and it would be a powerful message.
Liebore canot risk losing any of its increasinly large muslim vote, so needs to balance its actual position with only losing a small percentage of the WWC. Wootton Bassett threatens to bring that thorny issue to the forefront, something the tories want to avoid as well, as they do not want to be tagged as a racist party.
Cameron should ask Brown to confirm at PMQs that he will contest the next General Election as PM.
He would (and would have to) answer “Yes” which would then make it impossible for him to step down.
414. It’s not in the BNP’s interest to actually take a stand against groups like Islam4UK, it would be a bit like a man sitting next to a sputtering fireplace in a cold room, “Oooh, ooh, stop throwing fuel on there, that’s naughty of you, stop, stop it. Firestarter! Arsonist!”
SeanT’s poofy French name: there could be a sub-plot twist involving a confusion between a Monsieur Eustache Dauger and a Monsieur Eustache d’auger de Cavoie. The villain goes free, and the innocent is wrongly imprisoned and subjected to a TV documentary programme presented by Henry Lincoln.
PaddyPower now has a market on what the Lib Dems would do if there is a hung parliament. The prices are 10/11 Neither; 7/4 Conservatives; 3/1 Labour. (Bets void if there isn’t one)
What does “do” mean? If there is a hung parliament, how does one party “do” another party? Is this the psychology of a 14-year-old who imagines that the third largest party simply decides which one of the two main parties it will “let in”, without so much as a word of negotiation? IIRC, that’s what happened in “First Among Equals”, by Jeffrey Archer. What is the point of setting up a bet on such a puerile basis?
I have a vague recollection of a politician being interviewed on an election night results programme a few elections ago, suggesting that a government which loses its parliamentary majority would be obliged to resign immediately. I’m not sure if I’m remembering correctly. I can’t remember who it was, or what party he represented. Does anyone remember? Is there any archived video evidence which could remind us of what he said? Or is my memory playing tricks on me? I know it’s a long shot, but it would be helpful if anyone else possibly shares my memory.
Only an hour or so after news hit of the retirement of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-North Dakota), now comes news that the first-term Democratic incumbent governor of Colorado is unexpectedly dropping his re-election bid:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/01/05/ritter_dropping_out_in_colorado.html
Like Dorgan’s retirement, this announcement comes out of nowhere and was entirely unexpected. One has to wonder what is going on. Whatever the explanation, these retirements create likely GOP pickups in races otherwise that would have been much more daunting for Republicans.
417 Would a hung parliament not destroy the LibDems as a viable quasi permanent coalition of lefties and orange bookers? Clegg would have to jump one way or the other and in so doing alienate half his party. They’d achieve a minor element of power but ignite a civil war as the price to be paid.
His voters split 50/50 between the choice of Labour or Conservatives as coalition partner. His activists probably more like 90/10.
The LibDems are only a going concern for as long as the gorilla in the corner about their Jekyll & Hyde personality is kept far from public view or open debate.
414. redcliffe62 January 6th, 2010 at 2:12 am
Folk get me wrong sometimes on this issue - not surprising given what i have posted at times before!
I have no problem at all with people who think the various wars we have fought in the last 10 years or so are wrong.
But is goes further than that in this case - A group of individuals seen head to head with a father of one of the war dead indicated he wanted the march. Let them do it - have the march but no police should be there to protect them from ‘people’ - no media either. They will learn that their view is not universal and i doubt they will do it again.
You are right to cight other folk from the same faith in rejecting the extrimist fruitcakes. The fact is they need forcing into it IMO - I have nothing against relevant groups indeed in my area i delibrately put trade the way of some groups who have shops. It is the fact they dont. I can tell you know that unless this problem is sorted, then it will not just grow but explode. I hear what is said beyond the PC world of work, whether local government, civil service, private enterprise or self employed.
418 / JohnLoony - I think Robin Cook pretty much said that in 1992 when he argued that it would be offensive for any government which had suffered such a sharp swing against it to remain in power, meaning the Tories being the largest party but just short of an overall majority.
Watch it here, about 9 minutes in:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgCEq8u64c0
That should have been 420 / JohnLoony.
Mandelson: the movie!
http://londonersdiary.standard.co.uk/2010/01/mandelson-can-keep-spinning-on-the-screen.html
426 - Mandy “has submitted himself to the cameras for the past three months as the centrepiece of a documentary on both his political and private life.”
Oh goody, Russian Billionaires, Brazilian boys and green custard…can’t wait!
426 - Timing is everything with these things and it will probably air in late June/early July right as Labour are gearing up to elect a post defeat leader. If he has said anything vaguely disparaging about any of the potential candidates then could make things interesting.
Can we have a new thread? Maybe something on polls and where they may be going?
…and I’ve just noticed that Mike has had the PB clock properly reset at least….
Martin, #423, thank you for your comments. Police though have a duty of care to protect everyone. Even these scummy instigators of trouble.
Regarding my idea of everyone standing together against this islam4uk group,the request would be aimned fairly and squarely at britain’s 3 million or so muslim community and their community groups to show which side of the fence they want to be on from now on.
I will take a no show of the new generation of british born muslims as direct confirmation they are muslims first and british second. And if that means as per the last 10 years a continuation of an ongoing and passive silence on extremist nutters from their community then that confirms their preferred option over democracy.
no media and no police cannot be done. but if liebore can change the law at short notice on letting israeli war criminals (as mandated by the U.N.) come in without fear of arrest, then they should be able to do something about this.
If the bnp take 500 to the event and give them a smashing then I think most people really would not mind, i just wish a few other people joined in and not just the right wing. As this is a fight we should ALL be supporting. Whether or not we agree the wars in the middle east are or were sensible, which in my case clearly I never did, believing Blix over blair and bush every day of the week.