What will the politics of 2020 be like?
January 1st, 2010
How will the decade just beginning end?
The turning of the decades is an opportune time to lift our gaze from the transient ephemera of polls, speeches and even by-elections to the deeper questions of where politics is headed over the next ten years and what are the drivers of that change.
However, before looking forward, a brief glance back. The first decade of the 21st century has not been a good one for politics or politicians. Two events and one non-event in particular did deep and lasting damage. The Iraq War greatly undermined the electorate’s faith in its ability to influence the course of events on matters it judges important and of representative democracy to use the greater knowledge and understanding of the issues that professional politicians are supposed to have to reach the make the right decisions.
The second hammer-blow was the more recent Expenses Scandal, all the more damaging for taking place during a deep recession and serving to further distance the political class from the public. Therein lies one of the greatest challenges of the next ten years: reversing the trend towards the marginalisation of both politics and politicians. This will be all the more necessary because of the nature of the policies that will have to be adopted, whoever is in power. The good times are over: the country spend today’s money yesterday and is spending tomorrow’s money today even faster.
That ties in to the non-event: the anticipated improvement in public services, widely believed not to have happened, or at least, not to be worth the extra cost. Put another way, the perceived usefulness of politics has been eroded by its failure to increase happiness.
All this leaves the system increasingly brittle and fractured. Mass participation in a duopoly is long gone but despite the increasing number of parties, overall party membership is both falling and aging. Political involvement is increasingly tied to single-cause issues rather than a willingness to ally to the broad coalitions necessary to enable party-based democracy to work.
Increasing the stresses still further is the intolerance for independent viewpoints within parties. It is surely no coincidence that the rise of minor parties and the decline in membership has occurred at the same time as the established main players have demanded ever greater central control.
The next decade may well then see a breakdown in our current party system. Four times since the modern parties emerged in the early nineteenth century have there been great convulsions: the splits of Peel, the Liberal Unionists, the National Government and SDP. Each time it was because the politicians of the day were unequal to mastering the policy questions asked of them while keeping their supporters on board. However, once the dust settled and despite the drama of the events, the picture remained substantially unchanged.
If it happens, it may be different this time. For one thing, the pressure is as much from outside as from within. The big gap in such an analysis is the lack of an obvious beneficiary; someone or some party to reap the harvest of discontentment. Even so, such movements can spring up from little or nothing. Politics abhors a vacuum as much as nature.
The politicians and public of the 2010s may well be asked bigger questions than have been in play at any time since at least the 1980s and maybe the 1930s. It’s going to be an interesting decade.
David Herdson
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Totally different
Happy New Year PB.com!
In 2020, the Tories will still be using Gordon Brown to scare voters to vote Tory.
I can officially die a smug bastard now, I was first, on the first thread of the Teenies.
On topic, It will all depend on the economy, if it remains sluggish/slow for most of the Teenies, then expect politics and society to disentangle more.
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!
AND FINALLY WE CAN NOW SAY IT’S ELECTION YEAR!!!
GE COUNTDOWN
March 25th 84 days
May 6th 126 days
A very happy new year to all PB posters & lurkers, and especially to OGH. The 24/7 discussion & conversation on here has helped me through a year of slow convalescence, so my thanks to all who have contributed.
Happy New Year.
A thoughtful piece I will come back to later (probably in the morning). Any CCHQ are quick off the mark with their Year for Change campaign…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/conservatives-launch-year-for-change-campaign.html
Happy New Year.
A thoughtful piece I will come back to later (probably in the morning). Any CCHQ are quick off the mark with their Year for Change campaign…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/01/conservatives-launch-year-for-change-campaign.html
Happy New Year to you all - even though it’s a silly thing to celebrate
Its only just Twenty Ten and David wants us to worry about Twenty Twenty!
Happy New Year to all..
.. and back to the booze
Well the Sun Says leader (I’m naturally posting the Scottish version) suggests that change will be a good thing in 2010.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/sun_says/1460642/The-Scottish-Sun-Says.html
Happy Easter to all!!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239740/Its-New-Years-Day–Easter-eggs-appear-shelves-Tesco.html?ITO=1708&referrer=yahoo
Happy new year everyone and welcome to the Tories decade (cough)- I meant of course, the Teenies decade.
13 Wow david, your scottish colleague wrote a pro-conservative leader without mentioning the conservatives.
Still, he’d best keep his tin hat to hand in case the thugs (either Labour or SNP variety) notice.
Happy new year!
This year will either begin with my being sacked at the end of January or my taking another set of horrible exams. So either way not a great start… however I predict that it will pick up in May with a stonking election win for DC, and then a big lottery win in September.
3- Roman mothers used to warn their children that Hannibal would get them if they didn’t behave, Victorian mothers used Napoleon, will parents of my own generation use Brown? Only time can tell!
14- Tim said Tory millenium and I am happy to go along with that!
Only noticed when I went out last year (before midnight off to drinks) that yesterday was a Blue Moon, second full moon of December. Hopefully ushering in a Blue Decade
HAPPY NEW YEAR PB.com from deepest and very snowy Aberdeenshire!
Missed my 13 year old nephew playing on the bagpipes tonight!
David, will give your article my full attention in the morning with a clearer head, but I do know that we are going to be skint, so won’t be much of a party atmosphere.
Jools Holland good tonight, the Welsh crooner was the highlight for me, pure class.
Oh and no more hiding for Gordon and Labour, its general election year, the countdown begins now.
16 At my niece’s school, the children make “GORDON BROWWWWN” monster faces to each other.
Children are very clever and pick things up by themselves.
HAPPY NEW YEAR (HIC)
even to Ken Wasabi!
Happy New Year. Here is to another year of inciteful analysis, profit and darn good fun on pb.com.
13.David, brilliant leader, and I love the way that it linked the Scotland team with a new political era. The blue teams rock!!
Happy New Year all, feeling trepidation about the next decade, especially the first couple of years - no matter who wins.
The Times greats the New Year with…
“Age of austerity
Britain faces severe constraints on economic policy because of the budget deficit”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6972956.ece
Happy New Year.
And a great article to kick it off.
Fwiw, I think our political system will come under some serious strain in the coming decade. I guess that 99% of the people who read and post here would say that that system is worth preserving, though it might need some timely reform to keep it going.
And the good news is all my Hogmanay pics are ready so I will be away within the hour
One more article snippet:
“Finally, there are real fears in the Cabinet that such a revolt could misfire, with Mr Brown replacing the rebels and carrying on at the head of a broken party; and that, even if he did not, the story of the political murder would dominate the agenda until the election.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/donald-macintyre/donald-macintyre-will-they-wont-they-launch-a-coup-1854691.html
The problem is that you can’t get away from the fact that single-issue politics is fundamentally immature. It’s like going to a party and everyone you talk to is obsessed with their own interests but doesn’t care about anyone else’s. The public have to understand that conflicting issues have to constantly be balanced against each other. But no-one likes to tell people this in case they’re accused of being somehow elitist or anti-ordinary people.
Is there any significance in the fact that Martin Kettle is now talking about the possibility of a Tory-Labour coalition in the event of a hung Parliament?
Liberal Democrats have long considered this a possible outcome of the next election, but I have the feeling that Martin Kettle is not a Lib Dem. Is something stirring under the waters?
Happy New Year!
Labour’s new guard ’same as old guard’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labours-new-guard-same-as-old-guard-1854760.html
DOOMED - doomed I tell you!
No response in 20 minutes? On PBC? That is highly significant!
Cameron is clearly preparing to enter a Grand Coalition with Labour after the next election!
Happy New Year everyone.
Just back to the hotel room - GF’s in the bathroom so got a moment to check in. Must dash before I get in trouble!
33. Curious January 1st, 2010 at 1:22 am
No, that is not going to happen.
I was just distrated by something i saw in the Times.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6973057.ece
This does not add up as the spending from Labour on all sorts of Bullshit measures for the October 1974 election really fired up the need to go to the IMF in 1976.
Indeed it is a well placed document that has been discovered just like the need to release the Westerland affair documents. Mock Sarcism - really i expect a government to be looking for solutions for the future not spending time looking at something that happened well over 30 years ago.
30.”Is something stirring under the waters?”
Yep, its the whiff of sheer desperation, there is more chance of Scotland winning the World Cup than a Lab/Con coalition with Clegg bouncing around the opposition benches all on his lonesome. Chill out - that is New Year high jinx and humour.
35. Sterling Guarentees are to do with the curency not financing Budget deficits if i remember rightly!
Looks to me as though Labour might be paving the way for a close encounter of the IMF kind before the election!!!
But why not, Martin?
Here on PBC hardly a day goes by without Tory spinners offering it as fact that, if there is not a Tory government after the next election, the Lib Dems will be supporting a Labour government. Which is absolute nonsense of course.
In fact it is far mmore probable that, under those circumstances, there would be a Labour-Tory coalition. They do, after all, have a lot in common.
A very anti-Scottish post there, Christina. I do not know how you dare….
Don’t count on this guys.
We’re now into 2010, and the electorate INSTINCTIVELY KNOWS that a general election is imminent, and the polls will definitely start to narrow. I guarantee it.
Can Gordon Brown win, yes of course he can. Will he? Don’t know.
But one thing is for sure, this is now about the Tories versus Labour, and not Cameron versus Brown.
The debate has now shifted to its essence. What we had throughout 2009 was nothing but celebrity nonsense.
It’s serious now.
So will the the electorate feel confident enough to go for a Tory government ?
Time will tell. But i don’t think that a Tory victory is as nailed on as you might think.
It’s going to be great viewing though. Can’t wait.
38. Curious January 1st, 2010 at 1:39 am
The only way Labour would be involved is in a national government and even then it would probably split them as in the 1930s. Labour simply dont work within the national interest ever!
37. Wasn’t there a strange comment from Mandelson a few weeks ago to the effect that drawing on the IMF should be seen as a regular everyday kinda thing and nothing to get excited or ashamed about? That seemed rather like softening people up for the news.
35. If Thorpe had gone into coalition with Heath, would Thatcher have become Tory leader, let alone Prime Minister?
Just to clarify my prevous remark, I think there is far more probabilty that Nick Clegg will become Leader of the Opposition than that Scotland will win the World Cup. Vastly more…
Christina clearly despairs of Scotland…. Not good for the Tory image in Scotland…
38 – Curious, you are 21.
What the hell are you doing wittering away on PB.com on new year’s day..?
What is it with you Lib Dems? Stop bitching about the Tories and get laid, you know it makes sense
40. DingDangSure January 1st, 2010 at 1:41 am
Yes, I can just see the VAT rise effective in 4 hours time sending the crowds cheering!
Gordon Brown rather than being carried shoulder high and cheered is more likely to be given the nightmare image of scroodges funeral, where Gordon Browns demise (Political) has laughing, clapping and cheering! 
Sorry, Simon St Clare. I am not interested…..
42.
MichaelK January 1st, 2010 at 1:44 am
Yes indeed there was a few months ago now actually!
Time flies doesn’t it!
44.Simon, what on earth is curious whittering on about? She clearly didn’t watch only an excuse tonight, the current plight of the national team and Rangers financial woes meant there was lots of material to exploit. Lets love bomb the Libdems.
Not sure I quite understood that, Christina.
Which is a nice way of hinting that the red wine was posibly a bit strong this evening….
Again…
The Scottish National team is but an excuse…?
46 -
well, if you change your mind 
48 - Happy New Year Christina, I hope 2010 sees you and your extended family, both here and abroad safely home again.
Thanks for the kind offer, Simon. You Tories are really carrying the idea of love-bombing to extremes, aren´t you?
And I don´t think you really imagine to what extremes…..
I still think that a Tory-Labour tie-up of some kind is just as likely as a Lib Dem tie-up with either. Or more so.
49.”The Scottish National team is but an excuse…?” for the Tartan army to party.
Stayed off the red wine tonight, love sparkling rose instead, and a rather nice brandy to dram in the New Year.
50.Simon, thanks, brother in law facing his son heading to Afghanistan this year. We were very lucky last year that my brother returned safely, some of his comrades did not. And the year before, other relatives were grieving the lost of a loved one.
52.Loved trying a sparkling rose instead and that should have been loss rather than lost. Not too tiddly tonight, just popping in and typing too fast as usual.
Ah Christina, it sounds as though you a tending towards the national side (ie SNP) tonight…
These fickle Scottish women….
Anyway, glad to hear that despite the snow you were able to toast in the New Year - with brandy - a proper drink….
Best wishes for much happiness in the future
(which does not include a Tory overwhelming victory, of course)…
54.Curious, and best wishes to you too. Anyhoos, time to call it a night. Nite all.
Apologies to ChristinaD.
I still maintain that you make up alot of stories to prove your points, but I was rude in the extreme.
A new year. A new era. A new relationship between Christina and the CyberNats
Much happiness all round….
Huzzah for internet happiness!
Curious January 1st, 2010 at 2:34 am
Not for Brown when he reads this:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2789285/Blair-and-Browns-Noughties-spending-spree.html
Its starts off not to bad but gets worse and worse for the Labour party!
“The Noughties were the decade of endless opportunity.
What a waste.”
Strange then, Martin, that Cameron should be planning to go into coalition with him…. Eh?
Strange then, Martin, that Cameron should be planning to go into coalition with him…. Eh?
2020 will be fairly nasty. The continuing economic background of debt, deficit and high taxation to fill the gap will continue to cast an aura of gloom and resentment over the population.
We will be in the tenth year of an increasingly draconian authoritarian reactionary government, which will be itching to find a reliable way of introducing ID cards and which will be presiding over a thuggish, out-of-control police force.
The NHS will be subjected to continuing encroachment of indirect fees, charges, exclusions, means-testing, and privatised staff and cleaners. The rail and road networks will be subject to the profiteering graspings of a plethora of private companies, who will be imposing tolls and hi-tech charges on anything that moves.
Carbon emissions will still be worryingly high, and targets (”aspirations”) for reduction will have been missed, diluted, delayed or forgotten. Energy will be almost as carbon-based and non-renewable as it is now; a new generation of nuclear power stations will be delayed, over-budget and delayed again.
The tyranny of knowledge-free tick-boxing in schools will have ended, but proper teaching of proper knowledge by proper teachers will not yet be possible because most of the available teachers will have been suffering from knowledge-free tick-boxing teaching methods in schools for the last twenty years. The teaching of incorrect apostrophe’s and bad speling will almost have become a self-perpetuating fnomnon.
The inequalities, inefficiencies and distortions of the continuing First-Past-The-Post system will be further exacerbated and magnified by the expanding prevalence of four- and five-party systems in large parts of England (especially the cities), the continuing election of increasing numbers of maverick and independent MPs, wildly varying turnouts, and the geographical fragmentation of the country into zones where different combinations of parties are dominant or virtually inactive.[1]
The BNP, UKIP, Green Party, and English (whatever variation) Party may well have one or two MPs each, often elected in unexpected places.[2]
————–
[1] I have just started reading “Chaos” by James Gleick, Chapter 1: “The Butterfly Effect”. The main point is that in complex systems with multiple variables, small changes in initial conditions will/can result in large changes in outcomes; the secondary point is that chaotic systems continue in chaotic patterns without ever settling into a steady state or regular cycle.
In this case, the point is that the prima-facie logic (or the intuitive feature) of FPTP is that politics theoretically tends and settles towards a stable sytem of two approximately-equal occasionally-alternating broad-based main parties, with all other parties being contained (i.e. squeezed) to a minimal or negligible level in terms of votes or seats (e.g. the UK in the 1950s); whereas the observed reality is the increasing fragmentation and multiplication of parties, the narrowing of the social or political base of each party, the localisation or specialisation of some parties in some areas (e.g. India or Papua New Guinea). This will be accompanied by the hardening of attitudes in the general opinion of both the Conservative and Labour Parties that FPTP must be kept, that PR would only make it “worse”, and a belief that FPTP will inevitably revert back “eventually” to a 1950s-style two-party system.
[2] for example, if a BNP MP were elected in 2010 in Stoke rather than Barking.
Happy New Year folks.
I’m especially indebted to David Roe on the last thread for recognising that I am far more dangerous to his world, by calmly pointing out that some aspects of his society are boring, than those who hurl abuse.
Thanks David. Great to get a compliment at the turn of the year.
Well, how could I resist posting on the one night of the year when it’s actually normal to be up at this time? Happy New Decade everyone, with apologies to numerical purists (probably including Rod Crosby). The last decade has fair sped by, we’ll be back in the Roaring Twenties before we know it. Let’s hope this time we can forego the world war between now and then.
Happy New Year/Decade James.
If you hadn’t noticed we are already in a world war - as US/UK tries to impose regime change on those they don’t like. Look out for the arguments for an invasion of Yemen soon!
Having done a long boring on-topic essay, I can now do an off-topic anecdote in the egotistical hope that some sad anorak will notice it and remember it enough to nominate me for poster of the year 2010.
When I was a child in the 1970s, we would go to bed as usual in the evening of 31st December, sleep, and wake up normally on the morning of 1st January. In January 1980 (when I was 11), I went to school at the beginning of term and noticed that some of the other boys in the class were asking and telling each other what they did at New Year’s Eve, or what the first thing they said in 1980 was. It suddenly dawned on me that they were talking about what had happened at midnight on 31.12.79/1.1.80, and that they had stayed up until midnight to celebrate it. It had never occurred to me that anybody other than boring grown-ups would do such a thing. By 1980/81, I was old enough to stay up and we watched New Year’s Eve on TV.
From 1980/81 to 2008/9 I always stayed up all evening, at home, watching TV, and celebrating the start of the New Year by watching the celebrations/fireworks/whatever on TV. When I was a teenager, my parents would go out to celebrate at the local pub (or golf club or whatever), and my siblings usually went out to their own parties or whatever. Thus I would usually be on my own.
On the evening of 31st December 2009, after watching EastEnders, I looked in the Radio Times to see what programmes there would be for the rest of the evening, and was completely put off by the prospect of ghastly Graham Norton and the idea of a stupid live broadcast from the Thames, showing me fireworks and people watching fireworks, and no doubt with continuing prattling commentary from some patronising chav presenter telling me about the fireworks instead of just letting me wacth them.
Thus I was comfortably tucked up in bed, reading a book about chaos theory, and with the television (for the first time in thirty years) OFF when Big Ben struck midnight, and when 2010 started.
I am not sure whether to congratulate myself on my smug self-important rejection of the imposition of the dictates of modern chavy television culture, or whether to grumble inwardly at the continuing onset of middle-aged grumpyism-cantankerousism.
I would say you are to be congratulated, John. I enjoy your posts too…
66. Incidentally, a similar thing happened in relation to the Eurovision Sonk Ontest. I had always been vaguely aware of the ESO as being something vaguely weird which happened annually, and assumed that it was watched by mad people (i.e. teenagers and adults) but not normal people (i.e. children).
Then, in 1981, it caused a big fuss in the news because the UK won it. It was being talked about at school the next day. I realised that very many of my classmates had actully watched it and not just heard about it.
Thus 1981 (when the UK won) was the last time I did not watch the ESO, and 1982 was the first time I did watch it.
67. Does that count as a nomination for POTY 2010 (or “Potty Zoio”, as we should call it)? Is it too early to nominate people?
68. At least you made it just in time for the best UK entry ever (’One Step Further’ by Bardo).
66 JohnLoony
Doesn’t sound that unusual an experience - if you are English.
In Scotland, Christmas only started to be celebrated in the 1950s - Hogmanay was always our winter solstice celebration.
It really doesn’t matter if cultures start to share in other culture’s traditions. You now have New Year. We now have Xmas. We both have bloody pumpkins at Hallowe’en!
Just realised that I made a petty Brit Nat point with my “We both have bloody pumpkins at Hallowe’en!”
I wonder how David Roe is going to deal with that.
16 At my niece’s school, the children make “GORDON BROWWWWN” monster faces to each other.
20 Children are very clever and pick things up by themselves.
Children pre-puberty (and often later) mirror the politics of their own homes. Which is why one of the most accurate “polls” for predicting US presidential elections, has been the “Weekly Reader” poll of American schoolkids.
BTW, still 2009 out here on US West Coast. Ditto Eastern Seabord.
Sounds promising on your side of the Time Machine, y’all sound very optimistic!
Happy new year to everyone at PB.com. Long may she live
Happy new year to everyone at PB.com. Long may she live
74. Yes, I was just going to say, a disembodied voice from a previous decade is speaking to us. (Although I think we had this conversation last year…)
I’ve just had a post put in moderation for the most inexplicable reasons ever. Suffice to say it was a cracker. (Well, after a fashion.)
Here in the US, the big national New Year’s thing is watching the ball drop on Times Square. That is televised live across the country. And watching it is a big deal, many parties will have TVs set up for it.
Way out here on the Pacific Rim it’s a bit early in the evening for it to be a real focus. BUT it’s perfect for both the Eastern and Central Time Zones . . . if you’re in the later, you know you’ve got another hour of partying and that goes by pretty fast!
77, JK - congratulations, you’re the first censored PBer of the Teens!
79, SSI - note yer truly was the last censored PBer of the Noughts! And deservedly so!!!
Happy New Year all except SSI who hasn’t yet got what’s coming to him.
JohnLoony, are you refusing to hear the chimes at midnight?
New Decade
I don’t care what time it is in the USA - my grandson phoned from NC just after midnight (our time) to wish us Happy New Year!
If the Tories win the next election, then their ‘Big society’ agenda becomes the great experiment:
“…to strengthen society rather than the state; to give more power to the people through increased localisation, transparency, choice and accountability; and to encourage enterprise by liberating individuals, communities and businesses from the dead hand of excessive bureaucracy.
And the direction in which the programme seeks to take Britain is into a post-bureaucratic age. The ambition is to liberate the energies and reinforce the social bonds of our people so that they can achieve what has not been achieved and will never be achieved by the mechanisms of centralised bureaucratic micro-management.”
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/2166/full
I think 2020 Britain will be great
This is a good analysis of the next decade.
Confidence with politicians and the major parties in Britain would have to be at one of the lowest levels in memory.
Whilst Cameron may win the next election, this will likely be against the backdrop of high vote shares for parties like the Greens, BNP and UKIP when compared to recent elections. The recent European Elections are a case in point. Due to large numbers of voters staying at home, the Labour Party vote could be at one of its lowest levels since the early/mid 20th century.
84 DavidC
A “good analysis of the next decade.”
It might be if we knew whose words these were. Cameron’s, Brown’s Cleggs, Salmond’s, yours, someone you met on the bus, your broker, your cleaner, a hack journalist, David Roe (just to make the point that it is possible he doesn’t fall into the previous category).
Your post refers to the next UK GE. I see nothing in it that refers to te next decade.
Let us pray that by the year 2020 politicians will heve elected a new public.
“I like politicians and especially mainstream politicians; corruption is good.” It’s the ugly *people* I can’t stand and I really detest the puppet-masters of the media.
In 1979 the NF were on the march as far as the streets were concerned.Margaret Thatcher effectively put them out of business.Now we have the prospect of a new Tory administration but their leader is constantly criticised for being ‘too liberal’. Can David Cameron issue the BNP with their P45s as did his predecessor to the NF ?
Surely the most volatile element in our society is the prospect of ‘bigger and better bombs’ inflicted on the public by terrorists. Could this provide the window the BNP are looking for ?
My fear is that the public are alternatively so cynical and so quick to blame the government that it could. In a flash they could go from saying “It’s all a myth” to “Why weren’t we told ? Why weren’t we protected ?”
Oh, and HNY, especially to David Herdson who has kicked off the decade in style.
86 URW
“…so quick to blame the government”
The Conservatives ‘big idea’ is to pass more power from central gov’t, to individuals, communities, and local gov’t. In theory that should result in less blaming the government, and more of a can-do attitude from the public when issues arise.
DaveB - These days I seem to be a ‘Wolfie in reverse’ and my war cry is “NO POWER TO THE PEOPLE !!”
I trust mainstream politicians. I don’t trust people and especially ‘The People’. If legislation were left to the kind of people who announce themselves on talk-shows then by 2020 we would be back living in 1020.
88 URW
Hmm. Does it help to think of them as people organised into non-state institutions, rather than an unruly mob?
“That ties in to the non-event: the anticipated improvement in public services, widely believed not to have happened, or at least, not to be worth the extra cost. Put another way, the perceived usefulness of politics has been eroded by its failure to increase happiness.”
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Those words from David Herdson exemplify what I mean about the orchestrated cynicism regarding our public services.
Without launching into lengthy anecdote, I wish to put it on record that public services have improved immeasurably since the dark days of Thatcher and Major.
“…not worth the extra cost”
I have a vague memory of an article claiming that the real terms increase in gov’t spending under New Labour was roughly equivalent to the gov’t take from income tax.
What if New Labour had abolished income tax, rather than increasing spending on public services?
The economy should be still the in the grip of a massive depression following the crash in 2013, this following the biggest boom ever seen in the UK after interest rates were kept at zero and hundreds of billions was printed for spending……
Off-topic:
Someone seriously needs to get control of Al-Beeb, especially their editorial staff. Overnight their headline story has been PM orders airport security review.
For hours the headline picture has been http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47018000/jpg/_47018088_008442696-2.jpg. Only recently has a more suitable http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47018000/jpg/_47018310_plane_ap.jpg replaced it.
nEU-Labour don’t do democracy; Al-Beeb doesn’t care-a-fig about public service. A curse on both houses…!
Far more important than 2020; what happened to Ave it?
“Children unable to talk properly because of working parents” reports today’s Daily Telegraph.that is the legacy of 13 years of NL rule.
#98, graham p malpas January 1st, 2010 at 8:15 am
“Children unable to talk properly because of working parents” reports today’s Daily Telegraph.that is the legacy of 13 years of NL rule.
Sorry, but that’s not attibutable to Labour. Encouraging women-in-the-workplace [et. al.] is a policy of any liberal.
Blame Al-Beeb (I do): nonsense like Telly-tubies should be directed at adults not children. [Seems to be very popular with grown-ups in the parish of NorthernBritain, judging by many contributors on here....
]
Happy New Year / Decade to all and especially to Mike, for his running such a brilliant, enjoyable, informative and frequently profitable (for me at least) site, and for allowing me the privilege of writing the first article.
On topic, my own thoughts are that this year’s GE will be the most important election for many, many years. On the one hand, we have a Tory party who will reform public spending, and therefore of necessity, services and (hopefully) expecations of what the state does and should do; on the other, we have a Labour party who I genuinely think would not take any action to tackle the deficit.
If Brown gets back, it’s Balls to the Treasury, a Sterling collapse, a Credit Rating downgrade, renewed QE to fund the deficit, possibly including emergency powers to do so, 10%+ inflation by the year-end. If that comes to pass, by the end of 2011, we could see another 5% wiped off inflation-adjusted GDP and then we really would be a political revolution territory. Yes, the Budget plans are for cuts but I simply don’t see Brown/Balls implementing them (a) because it’s alien to the way they’ve behaved in government and (b) because they’d have just won by threatening that the Tories would slash spending and so be boxed in.
And that’s how might Labour get back: by the Tories laying out in some detail what has to be done to tackle the deficit. There’s a dreadful air of unreality at the moment. The party’s over and the hangover’s hit but the credit card bills haven’t arrived and the boss is getting twitchy about the number of sickies.
Even if the Tories do win, government is going to get very unpopular very quickly, again leading to a further disillusionment with politics and both main parties (Labour won’t escape the blame for getting us into the mess; nor are the Lib Dems likely to be sufficiently distinctive to make a major breakthough though I can see them polling a steady 25%+ at some point in the next five years).
Unless the political leaders find a new way of doing politics, the party structures will be inoperable by 2020. The internet and new media offer much more direct methods and therefore, perhaps fortuitously, at the same time that the mass-membership movement model possibly enters its terminal decline, the means to continue in other, equally effective ways have arisen.
If - a big if - we get through the next 5-7 years without major disruption, I’d expect the politics of 2020 to be much more based on individuals, both as politicians (ie apart from their parties) and as electors. More referenda, more direct democracy on policy propositions, more elected officials - many of whom will be independents, of local / personal parties or of a Ken’n'Boris nature, transcending party. If it’s not organised from above, it will be brought about from below via Facebook groups, online petitions and other such methods.
I would not be at all surprised if the politics of 2020 are as distinct from those of 2000 as those of 1920 were from those of 1900.
POLL ALERT - Telegraph/YouGov
Cons 40
Lab 30
LD 17
1848 British adults were questioned between December 29 and 30, 2009.
Is from the Paper copy of today’s Telegraph, cant see it online
The Morland cartoon in today’s Times is spot on.
101 - OK, found it online
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6917148/Labour-rule-leaves-millions-more-finding-it-hard-to-cope.html
101 The Screaming Eagles
Changes C 0 L +2 LD -1 from YG of 17 Dec
Telegraph poll story
100 - David Herdson
I think it will be much more local, based in/on communities.
Westminster will be less in the news, but membership of political parties will increase, as (local) political engagement increases, and people use the exisiting party structures/idenities to organise themselves where expedient.
101 - Telegraph says a majority of 22
Wells says 10
Looks like Cameron and Osborne have got it right, from the poll.
Mr Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, have also begun to win over the public on the economy, with 40 per cent saying that they trust the Conservatives to make the right decisions on taxes and public spending, up three per cent in the last three months. Labour is trusted by only three out of 10 voters.
Two-thirds believe that the Tories will raise taxes for “people like [them]” if they win the election, compared to nearly three-quarters who say the same of Labour.
And the Conservatives enjoy a nine-point lead when voters are asked which party they think would run the country well.
The opinion poll shows that voters are braced for tax rises and spending cuts regardless of who wins the election, with more people favouring the latter as the right approach to get Britain’s finances in balance, although a slight majority prefer a mixture of the two.
101, doubt it’s valid given the timeframe, but reckon it somewhat overestimates the Labour share.
#100, David Herdson January 1st, 2010 at 8:32 am
DH, you are ignoring the elephant-in-the-room: Scotland. Could it not be possible that they trigger the reformation of UK [sic] politics.
For all our English gripes, Scotland is a symptom of what is wrong with UK public-expenditure. Wales is as expensive, and Northern Ireland is a financial nightmare (which the Republic cannot afford to take on).
Expenditure cuts are comming and - thanks partly to the Barnett formula - the effect should be amplified up-north. Could a 2011 budget be the tipping-point for a Scottish independence revolt?
It’s easy for us living in balmy Southern England, with her pleasant environment of private-enterprise, to forget that The State is the life-blood of many communities that Labour rely upon. If Osborne cut’s with Howeian gusto then much of the interwoven political-economic fabric of poverty-land will fray.
I [wish to] forsee our political forces reformed by 2020. I cannot dictate to Scotland, and am happy to defer to Wales. All-sides accept that The Province’s future is theirs to decide. Come 2020 England should be an independent monarchy, governed by a bi-cameral parliament - one house elected by FPTP, one by PR - equal in power and one that protects the individual and society, not just the elites.
So politics does not have to be staid and the electorate does not have to be cynical. The Twenty-twenties should be exciting, but we have to be bold. The ‘tweenies (a.k.a. 2010’s) will be where history will be made.
110, a good post, although for using the word ‘tweenies’ in a non-derisory fashion I’m afraid only the severest penalty will suffice. You are to be tied to a chair and forced to listen to Alistair Darling’s Budgets and PBRs until you cry.
It’s a very interesting point about Scotland though.
January is going to be an awful month for me. No F1 racing, no testing… just a month of waiting. Intend to write 1 article, on the refuelling and points system rule changes.
Wells overestimates the Big2 by sixteen Seats or thereabouts and underestimates NATS+OTHERS by six at least.
He puts the LDs at 39 so I suppose they merit and extra ten.
As Stuart and the Scots Nats are probably recovering from Hogmanay these are the regional figs (perhaps they might prefer anoher dram before reading)
Scotland 21% C:46% L:17% LD: 13% SNP: 2% BNP:1% Green
London 45:25:19:12 other
Rest of South 49:21:17:13 other
Midlands/Wales 41:31:17:11 other
North 33:40:16:11 other
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tiTSCHJiCXwR860hhkDRfeQ&gid=2
107
Hmmm well it comes to something, when a Tory majority of 22 or is it 10 is considered, ‘bad’ news for Labour.
This poll, (think the Libdems will do better) puts a ‘hung parliament’ in the frame: unless of course its an ‘oddity’ i.e. Mike’s term for a poll which does not replicate ARS.
As for politics in 2010, the growth of ‘niche’ parties, the Nationalists/ UKIP/BNP/Greens being the forerunners will continue.
A fantastic piece, wasted on the timeslot. Most politicians nowadays get fixated on winning every news cycle, never pausing to consider the long term strategy. No wonder the public get alienated when politicians surf currents rather than sail them. Sometimes politicians need to steer against unfavourable currents, not find the easiest way of riding them.
I expect the Tories to win the next election. David Cameron needs to be as clear as possible about the difficult times ahead if he is not to be a failure. I am coming to the conclusion that he’s not actually he’s up to the job. He was a leader chosen for good times, called upon to lead (if he’s elected) in bad times. That may not stop him winning in 2014, however, if the opposition is worse.
My big concern is that Labour’s brand may be too contaminated to win again for several elections but too popular to let the Lib Dems supplant them as the opposition. We may then get a long term Tory government that is despised by half the population but without a credible opposition.
Oddly, in those circumstances fringe parties will not do so well. The left of centre parties will rediscover moral crusades, hoovering up the single issue campaigns and their voters. UKIP might be an exception to the rule, depending on how the Tories tackle the subject of the EU.
A further thought: in opposition, Labour needs to take great care on the issue of the EU not to fall into the Scylla of Europhobia and the Charybdis of infantilising itself and looking to the EU the way that a 6 year old looks to its mummy whenever the nasty kid in the blue jumper does something it doesn’t like.
Britain is screwed : a feral underclass simmers with discontent spreading crime as they go, a remnant working class sees what little decent employment that there was left disappear and the middle classes see their incomes squeezed as never before simply because there’s nowhere else to find the money to hold back the nations’ avalanche of debt.
Society fractures as never before ; a sullen population of English natives feels increasingly marginalised as burgeoning communities of third world origin dominate every major city and town.Whether this resentment will translate into political resistance may be dictated by the extent of the economic malaise.
Britains mainly genteel decline over the past century may soon be about to get truly precipitous.
Will the last one out switch off the lights please…
117, if there’s one thing I hate about a new year it’s the saccharine, silly optimism
116, excellent mythological reference. You get 14 myth points. Collect 16 more for a free hydra
118 - How many myth points do I need to get a siren?
I’ve come to the conclusion that these so-called Scottish nationalists must be astroturfers, sock puppets or bots. No true Scot would be sober enough to post coherently at 3am on New Year’s Day.
19, 25. But I should warn you, they have a nasty habit of sexy cannibalism.
121 - Thanks for the warning. I shall strap myself to the nearest available mast.
URW is right: public services have improved dramatically in the last 12 years. The big question is whether they have improved proportionately (or sufficiently close to proportionately) to justify the money spent on them. If David Herdson meant this in his article, I think he is right if he is saying that the public aren’t convinced on this score.
Great post David. @URW I will not bet no curtain. The flat I’m renting in Bangkok is in a building painted in fluorescent pink; and with both the window-wall and the patio door to the balcony come pink curtains. Were I to lose those quality curtains in a stoopid bet, the matching pink furnitures I’ve bought would look totally gay!
121 - Sexy Cannibalism? Is that even possible?
As I have said before, the winning party in the year of a general election is invariably(?)the party that is confidently ahead in the polls in January.
125, question not the Word of Morris Dancer!
113:
These figures give the split for England & Wales to be:
Cons: 41.9, LAB 28.5; LD 17;
Cons lead of 13.4.
128, Con gain Close Harmony Singing!
127 - I shall not
Tres diplomatique, antifrank and a Happy New Year to you and Phillipe the pink curtains man.
I have been gorging on a CON Overall at 1.48.It might turn out to be an unfashionable price but I can live with it.
Nice to see Peter Golds back on the boards.
So is this the last poll of 2009 or the first poll of 2010?
131 - And a happy and prosperous New Year to you and all of pb.com too.
132 - By the fieldwork dates, it’s the last poll of 2009
I am not sure why - but I am still amazed to see pretty well only the perceptive John Loony mention global warming, carbon emissions (and all the other environmental issues stacking up behind). I am well aware that PBC doesn’t represent mainstream opinion, but it does seem to smack of turning a blind eye to what is and will rapidly become the driving force behind all politics, whether local national or international. It seems to me that people are only interested in treating symptoms, eg refugees from areas caught in primarily resource wars, or flood barriers etc, instead of the (admittedly) more difficult issues of how to create a political system which works with the grain of the environmental needs, not against it.
Happy New Year, everyone - and hope for a bit more realism by the end of 2010. Mexico, anyone?
Happy New Year, can’t be long until Brown is forced into retirement.
1.48 sounds good to me — especially as you gave more than 68% chance for it to happen. U gave it 76% IIRC.
Morning all, Happy New Year froma blizzrd swept Easter Ross.
As for 2020, will there indeed be a United Kingdom? I suspect yes. The Tories will still be in power.
135 - It is an issue crying out for a coherent approach that is not driven by an anti-capitalist agenda. So far no party in this country has come close and the left-of-centre parties and Labour in particular should treat their expected return to opposition as an opportunity to do just this. The current government has completely failed to communicate its thinking and the Conservatives have shown no sign yet of being able to do any better. This is exactly the sort of issue that I was referring to in my post at 115 when I wrote “Sometimes politicians need to steer against unfavourable currents, not find the easiest way of riding them.”
‘After you Gordon’, ‘No No after you David’, ‘Nick would you like to be the first to address the media?’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/31/grand-coalition-hung-parliament
Could be, could be.
113- for a moment I read that as Con 46%!
TSE - Looks as though my first reply to tim yesterday evening was the one. I suggested Reid and Curbishley and they look to be the two.
DarrenFerguson has been Backed with the bookies but is not liked on Betfair. Only Owen Coyle has held his price along with the other two.
123 URW is right: public services have improved dramatically in the last 12 years. The big question is whether they have improved proportionately (or sufficiently close to proportionately) to justify the money spent on them. If David Herdson meant this in his article, I think he is right if he is saying that the public aren’t convinced on this score.
Because of course, one person’s vital public spending is another’s total waste (probably another 10 actually). History of this goes back to the Poor Law and beyond. It didn’t just start with Thatcher! Many people, certainly in this country, believe that spending on others wastes THEIR money. This is irrespective of the fact that the spending may well have been of great benefit to those concerned, and sometimes as a spin off, to society in general.
123 Public Services: The Great British Public has developed Champagne tastes, but sadly now has only ginger beer pockets.
142 - Telegraph has it that Curbishley will be interviewed on Tuesday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/bolton/6917055/Alan-Curbishley-set-to-be-interviewed-for-Bolton-Wanderers-job.html
Oh Dear, Dave musn’t raise VAT.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/alexsingleton/100021055/i%E2%80%99m-ashamed-to-be-a-tory-voter-today/
Now now Dave don’t do it, you know you want to, but don’t.
141. Me too! Tories at 46% in Scotland! I just knew that couldn’t be right!
Happy New Year all.
Midnight was ushered in with a medley of Scottishness from a piper. In central London.
Which was nice.
I see Coldstone’s New Year’s Resolution to stop being a miserable git didn’t last long…
Oh, and the 10% lead in the Telegraph - spin on that, Macintyre!
Happy New Year! And what a bright and sunny [if reassuringly cold] one it is
Great post David and interesting addition from Mr Fluffy Thoughts upthread re the impact on many Labour areas once the tap of public spending is turned off.
Assuming the Tories get in, how they handle this reincarnation of ‘nationalised’ voters will be very significant.
Since many tribal Labour voters are still blaming Fatcha two decades after she got the push by her own side - I hate to think what the reaction is going to be when the inevitable starts to bite.
141/147 CON win Gorbals Central !
from the Indy. on the Westland Affair.
The dispute concerned a Cornwall-based company called Westland, which was the only British manufacturer of helicopters.
That’ll please ‘em in Yeovil Somerset, if thats what they think in London, ‘Free Wessex Now’
148 - Which was nice.
You are Mark Williams character from the Fast Show, and I claim my 5quid
Happy New Year all - nice to see the site in a state of generally woozy amiability. The poll doesn’t seem to show anything very different from the last couple - Tories probably just above the threshold for an overall majority, public not very keen on anyone at the moment. In view of the sampling period it’d need to be taken with caution anyway.
Very interesting leading article by David H. Looking at the US often gives us insights into what’s coming here, and politcs there is certainly more personal and less party-based, as David suggests will happen here. There are signs of that already, with people like Boris and Ken in London generating much more interest than their parties. Significantly, that’s driven by direct Mayoral elections, and if the Tories win and introduce elected Mayors in all major cities I think it’ll accelerate the trend and make the Mayoral route an alterative pathway to political prominence, just as it is in the US.
The difference from the US will remain that you can’t get elected to a major national office without first becoming a backbench MP (otherwise we’d see much more speculation about Boris’s plans). But if a very popular mayor of, say, Birmingham, decides to go into Parliament, it’ll be interesting to see the dynamics of what follows - a mixture of anxiety to coopt him and resentment at the interloper, probably.
What of those of us who think all this personality cult stuff is a Bad Thing? It doesn’t look good, and if there’s a switch to some sort of PR the major parties will fracture (they do that anyway in good times or bad if the system doesn’t force them into unity).
If we’re sharing New Years, I celebrated mine quietly with my other half in our house in rural Hungary. I had a proper drink for the first time in three months and though I woke this morning with a muzzy head, I went back to sleep and woke with a completely clear head, which is both unexpected and welcome. Added to that, my other half has managed finally to get the satellite tv working this morning. I shall be going for a dip in my pool in a few minutes. All in all, the New Year has started very well.
139 Yes, I agree, although with the important proviso that I think the nature of capitalism has to change fundamentally, along with many other aspects of life, to encompass the end of conventionally defined perpetual economic growth. The current financial crisis probably would have represented an opportunity to “do something different”, but it has looked to me as if the powers that be have decided that more of the same is the order of the day.
(Just to clarify, I support PR - the fracturing is a downside but not enough to suport the current IMO unfair alternative.)
141/147 Only after I posted did I notice the possible confusion
- what struck me was it looked like SNP 2%. Though SNP @ 13% isn’t good as against Unionist Parties 86%, with Conservatives half again more popular than the Nats - a New Years present for Christina, Easterross, Andrew & Max and co, but perhaps it was a Once in a Blue Moon result.
153 I’ve been playing that character on here for ages - and yet no-one called me out on it!
Brilliant!
Anyway, this year I shall mostly be delivering leaflets…
Monkfish, M.P.
Is it me. Am I reading it wrong, but the figures from the Telegraph/YouGov survey appear crooked.
The main parties plus others total 99%, yet non voters and don’t knows total a further 21%.
Perplexed!
But not perplexed enough not to say HAPPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL.
Con,,,,,,,, 40
Lab….. 30
Lib Dem 17
Other 12
Other Parties Voting Intention
UKIP….. 3
BNP… 3
Green……. 3
SNP / PCY 2
Respect 0
Other 1
Non Voters
Would Not Vote 8
Don’t know 13
157 - Why do you think that the fracturing is a downside? I would have thought that the increased ability of voters to vote for exactly what they want is a plus, not a minus, of PR. The minuses of PR for me revolve around the inability of voters to kick out the bums and, more importantly, that the voters’ decision is secondary to that of the politicians as to who forms the next government. That objection is one of the main reasons why I continue to oppose PR.
159 - Voting Tory is very much like making love to a beautiful woman.
You take her into a booth, close their curtains, get you pen out, and put your cross in her box.
160 - you need to contemplate the phrase: “8 out of 10 cats whose owners said that they expressed a preference…”
Weathcock - non-voters excluded from the party results, says so on table but it is the morning after
Happy New year
Public services? Yes . Improved.
But where?
Where they were bad, they are less bad . Where they were good , people will not see the difference.
And the key question is: Do those who pay the bills (i.e taxes) see the difference? After all, if the taxpayers of London are paying for better services in Sunderland or Scotland .. they cannot see it.
As far as the future is concerned, we have elected dictatorships. All our parties are wedded to it.Elect us with a majority and you have zero say in what we do for 5 years.
Is this feasible and relevant in the age of the instant communication and feedback we have? Of course not.
Parliament witters about how it is sacrosanct. Of course it is not. Decisions are made outside it and reported to it.
The system as it stands is based on 17th century ideas and Victorian technology…
Time for radical change.
I do not expect any such change without a revolution.
As far as green issues, the likely collapse of sterling and oil and gas priced in euros or dollars will force energy saving. I expect to see £2 per litre fuel within 7 years… which will force change…
Did anyone else notice large numbers of Chinese Latterns drifting across the sky last night, or was my vision blurred by Caol Isla? I don’t think that they had been released in such large numbers in past New Years’ Eves.
158
Easterros even as we post is probably being rushed to hospital suffering from a massive heart attack.
Further to my post 152 The Welcome to Yeovil sign bears the legend, ‘Yeovil heart of the country, the mind of a City’ great innit.
159 Marquee Mark. As a lad, ‘Monkfish’ spent more time in our house than he did in his own.
Simon was a talented comedian and impressionist by the age of ten.
A nice quiet New Year for me - and have recovered from muzzy head caused by two bottles of fizz.
Bizarrely, I woke up about 2am, couldn’t get back to sleep and ended up LOL reading all of AA Gill’s TV reviews in the Times. Since I don’t watch any tv bar the odd political one, it was even more surreal than it sounds.
Armed with this knowledge - I will now pretend to be in touch with popular culture
164. Gosh! I missed that Ted.
My eyes are still glued up.
Is it sad, that I decided not to do anything this new years eve and day, simply because I wanted to be in a decent state to watch David Tennant’s last episode as the Doctor tonight?
171 Crikey - is your New Year imbibing usually so enthusiastic that the hangover makes watching TV 18hrs later impossible?!
171, surely that would’ve prompted you to get a little tipsy, Mr. Eagles?
I hope RTD doesn’t do his trademark woeful finale, though I hold out little hope. It’s a shame, Tennant’s almost perfectly suited in the role but the finales have been dire and the classic enemies (Davros, Master, daleks) haven’t been well done. The best episodes have featured entirely new creatures (”Are you my mummy?” and Blink spring to mind).
171. That is sad, The Screaming Eagles. Heres a vodka and lime to make up for it.
172 - A couple of years ago, I kind of missed, the 1st of Jan, and the 2nd, and the 3rd.
I only was roused from my bed, when I was rung by work, wondering where I was.
That was the night, i discovered that champagne makes a really good mixer.
168 URW, thanks for sharing that snippet with us! I hope you were a surreal influence on him…
Happy new year to all - may all our tories and Scots Nats see their projects crowned by triumph this year, and may all the Labour and LibDems get all the success they deserve.
Johnloony at 67 - It was possible with the help of generous quantities of booze to navigate the wasteland of new year’s eve telly - albeit you had to stay away from the main channels to do it. BBC3 had a fun documentary at 7PM showing politicians making idiots of themselves for example, and thanks to Sky I was able to tune in to BBC Scotland’s hogmanay programme programme at the other end of the night which, despite being made in a tiny studio on a tiny budget, had a pipe band giving it welly and girls in short dresses playing fiddles - which is about all one needs at that time of night. Seeing in the new year with Mons Meg and Edinburgh castle disappearing behind a storm of fireworks also seemed somehow classier than doing it with Mylene Klass and the Millennium wheel. So, fair play to our Scots friends - you may get some mockery during the rest of the year, and some of it may even be deserved, but you know how to make new year come good:-)
Polling in the middle of the Christmas/New Year holidays! Anyone would think The Telegraph is deliberatly trying to get a strange result!
175 Screaming Eagles. Absolutely right. Pimms made with champagne instead of lemonade is a far better drink!
168/176 - They used to use Richmond, to film some scenes from Ted and Ralph. I’ve been in the shops Lord Ted and Ralph used.
I hope that by 2020 the public will have woken up to the fact that they cannot be disengaged from politics and the running of the country locally and nationally, and also expect things to work well.
Apathy leads to power being concentrated in the hands of narrow and self-interested cliques, and directly to the kind of dissembling-based politics we have today.
We need a society where politicians and parties are greatly reduced in importance, and ordinary people much more involved in decision-making at all levels.
The expenses scandal was an eye-opener for many people - but will it lead on to real change, or will we see things slowly returning to the dysfunctional ‘norm’? Who knows.
Happy New Year.
Man is it the most glorious winter day in Belfast, except when the wind blows. The streets are white from frost the sun is out and it was actually warm in parts first this morning..and its quiet oh so quiet.
96. Hilarious moment of ‘look Im still working’ pronouncement though I suppose there’s not much else for it, just the timing is more publicity than anything else.
A review is already underway and in fact there has been a plan to roll out more effective scanners. Its blindingly obvious that what is required is combination technologies, metal, density (which could have well picked up the powder in the guy’s pants) and potentially, if it can be arrived at, photo-fluorecence. I notice though one technology rarely deployed, that of a four legged cold wet nose.
Much has been made of the fact that this guy seems to have missed security by the simple measure of deploying chemical detonation. This is fine but misses a limitation of such a method and of PETN explosives. It often doesnt actually explode, under chemical reaction, it fizzes. Setting fire to a plane is all fine and well but it would need too catch very rapidly. What you really want is a seriously big bang and that isnt easy with this method of attack.
Much is
173 - I think RTD writes stories as a fan, rather than as a writer.
Sometimes this is a good thing, sometimes it’s a bad thing.
I’m grateful to him for bringing back the Doctor, but I’m also looking forward to seeing Steven Moffat taking over next year, for he has written some of New Who’s best episodes (including those two that you mention)
175 The only time I’ve been that bad was after downing 3/4 bottle of Johnnie Walker - I couldn’t even glance at the stuff for months afterwards and never touched it since [that was about 15 yrs ago].
179 Pimms and champers - sounds yummy
Two interesting articles today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/31/grand-coalition-hung-parliament
Martin Kettle on a Labour-Tory coalition
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/2789285/Blair-and-Browns-Noughties-spending-spree.html
Trevor Kavanagh on the decade just gone
183 I read that “Blink” was written by Moffat as a stand-alone story, and it got co-opted by the Dr. Who team. One of the high-points, especially as it featured the delightful Carey Mulligan - and when she is an Oscar-winning mega-star, people will look back and think “how the hell did they pull that off?”
As a New Year treat:
http://careymulligan.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/d7986b30.jpg
184 - Champagne and vodka is possibly the best thing ever
Champagne and Cherry sour, actually is better than vodka and champagne.
Champagne and Jack Daniels, marginally less.
Champagne and Baileys ends up tasting like an alcoholic ice cream
Baileys and Blue aftershock looks like paintstripper, but tastes quite nice, just don’t look at it
Champagne and absinthe, Sod waterboarding, that’s what they should give to terrorists, will work more effectively than waterboarding
183 - She deserves an oscar for her performance in “An Education” wonderful, wonderful film
Oh dear: Al-Beeb….
Imagine if we were to mis-spell the name of an integral member of the parish! Surely - dispite our inter-webby failings - our spelling would always be up-to-the
marquemark…!#190, Ok, I forgot to close my anchor….
183/188 - It should be said, Ms Mulligan deliver what is probably cinema’s funniest line ever
“I’m not losing my virginity to a piece of fruit”
182 Andrew Gilligan has an interesting piece on this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6919767/Treating-everyone-as-a-suspect-is-a-dangerous-charade.html
176/180. When they were all around fourteen or fifteen and emboldened by the success of Dire Straits and Squeeze, the lads formed their own group called ‘Simon & The Virgins’ with lead singer Simon Day.
Drummer was Nigel who went on to play with Lords of the New Church, Death Cult and Southern Death Cult but sadly died in his twenties.
Seamus (keyboards) and my son Ben (bass guitar) went on to play (somewhat improbably) with Desmond Dekker, and Seamus later played in a Madness big band.
Simon’s background was incredibly middle-class but he led a very colourful life as a teenager.
The only information from the poll relevant to the result of the GE, is the England/Wales split - this shows a C lead of over 13%. Why Scottish figures are always included in the reports and then put into Baxter I have never understood. As far as I see, Scottish estimates can assume no change, unless useable data is available.
/TTM012101CC-copy-14_666312a.jpg
Great Cartoo. Says it all really
Happy New Decade to pb-ers across the planet, from a sultry, sunny and rather snoozy Bangkok.
And good fecking riddance to the Noughties. “A low dishonest decade” as Auden said of the Thirties. And it can equally be applied to the ten years just gone. In fact I’d say the Noughties were the worst decade SINCE the Thirties.
At least in the 40s there was a great big war to cheer everyone up, a just and noble war, which we won. And the other shite decade of the last hundred years - the 70s - at least had some decent music, and I got to put my hand up Sally Ann Long’s skirt at the back of a maths lesson.
So there it is. Labour’s Noughties, officially the worst of times, since the Great Depression. Thanks Tony and Gordon. The Teenies must, surely, be better.
Inshallah.
…living a ‘colourful life’ : I love that word, URW! I’m really beginning to think that ‘colors’ –both seen and felt– are virtually the primary elements of which life is created.
is what we term as ‘matter’ ultimatly composed of colors? Are perceived objects made of colors?
Fantastic article David, absolutely spot on in your diagnosis that intolerance of independence is one of the major factors contributing to the current malaise. If I could have one new year’s political wish it is that genuine debate could be had within parties and alternative views tolerated without political opponents screaming “split!”. In the words of Obama… let us be the change!
weathercock, we know ur actual name now!
Happy New Year to all in the PB community!
I think that one of the biggest challenges facing Labour in these last few weeks before the GE is the apparent perception by the public that the Conservatives are going to win the GE. There is evidence of this in today’s Telegraph poll. 63% think the Conservatives will win against 13% who do not (24% not sure).
So nearly five times as many voters think the Conservatives will win rather than Labour. Relevant because so many people ( difficult as I know this is for PB readers to accept!) have very little interest in politics and they will base their voting decision not so much on policy but on things like their general impression of the Party Leaders and…. a desire to be on the winning side.
Interestingly, as the poll suggests 30% intend voting Labour if I interpret the figures correctly it means over half of Labour supporters don’t think their team will actually win - not much incentive to get out if it is a wet and windy evening to actually go and vote when the day arrives.
The feature of life in mid-late 1970s Blackheath/Greenwich world seemed to be of couples splitting up,leading separate lives or divorcing and the hitherto incredibly secure kids having to look after themselves.
In one notorious case, the PARENTS ran away from home leaving their children in occupation.
Simon’s ‘colourful life’ was a euphemism, Phillipe.
179 Pimms and champers is a favoured summer drink Chez Moi (though if I can get Plymouth Gin Fruit Cup version I prefer that - heard its been discontinued recently though) but in absence of champagne I prefer mix of lemonade & ginger ale. Pimms No 3 (Winter Cup) at this time of year all ginger ale, no lemonade. Pimms No 6 mixed two parts Pimms, I part vodka, I part cointreau, topped up soda water, mint is good any time of the year.
Happy new year to one and all. PB is a gem of a website and JohnLoony the angel on top of the tree.
Happy new year to everyone here!
201. Big deal Philippe Magnan. The question is how does one transfer images to PB?
Re: YouGov Poll;
Is this a confirmation of a pattern that has been evolving, that the SNP have peaked and are now suffering as the Party in Power.
It is always easier to snipe from the sidelines when in opposition as one’s policies have little chance of being enacted and often the supporters’ heads rule their hearts.
However, when in power and those policies have to be exposed to the electorate and be enacted, then the difficulties begin and heads start to rule the hearts. This is without unplanned and unexpected events that derail those carefully crafted policies.
Whilst this turn of events may have little effect on the number of Conservative seats in Scotland, it will have an effect on the number of Labour seats retained which will boost the size of that party at Westminster.
I suspect that the same pattern is starting to occur in Wales where PC are sharing power with Labour and are receiving a share of any blame that is being cast about.
Whilst PC may gain seats from Labour (e.g Ynys Mon and Llanelli) they will find it much harder to make headway elsewhere.
I just watched “Politician Outtakes” on iPlayer. It says as much about the BBC as it does Politicians.
Labour, came across as thugs. Heavies pushing reporters away from politicians - and those SA type goons roughing up Walter Wolfgang.
The conservatives were shown as evasive. Awkward, loaded questions not answered were re-asked with a little counter to tell the viewer how many times it had been asked. Instead of showing the Conservatives to be evasive - it only emphasised the fact that the BBC interviewers persist with Conservatives but drop questioning immediately with Labour.
A golden moment was when Geoff Hoon pretended to not hear questions. Instead of saying, “Sorry I cant hear you”, he stood there, probably humming “laa-laa-laa, I cant hear you”.
Why are the Lefties promoting a Conservative-Labour coalition?
Its like the end of the war. 1944 and the Nazis want us to forget their crimes and be friends.
Let’s not forget the impact of advancing technology.
The internet and mass media are colliding head-on. In the next decade, we should see who gets to walk away.
My guess: some papers and publishers will try to maintain the old ways, with subscriptions and rights management software, but as their customers desert them, their advertising revenues will collapse.
By 20202, a good home PC will be good enough to produce film quality special effects in real time, slashing production costs, while the internet reduces distribution costs - and the industry giants have lost their economies of scale, and hence their rationale. With them will go the current style of celebrity.
This changing media landscape will inevitably effect politics. Instead of judging politicians by set piece interviews, they may all be expected to put their case online, on a equal footing with everyone else. Nor will there be media moguls who can claim to shape public opinion.
As the online economy grows, people will buy more things that are purely virtual - software, e-books, downloaded music - which means that anyone with undeclared income will be able to spend it in ways completely invisible to the taxman, eroding the tax base. Since some of these people will be getting part of their income in virtual currency and spending it online without ever converting it into pounds, they won’t even think of themselves as tax evaders.
Towards the end of the decade, 3-d printing, which is just coming in now, will be widespread, and able to produce basic mechanical devices, which will threaten to destabilise more industries. Expect a panic the moment someone works out how to print a gun.
The continuing advance of medicine, accelerated by increasing computational power, will further stretch the NHS as the gap between what’s possible and what’s affordable grows.
By 2020, home biotech won’t be widespread, but it will be on the planning horizon.
Overall, the coming decade will see politicians faced with a choice between regulation, with the risk of strangling the golden goose in red tape, and being out-competed by other countries, and rampant technological change undermining half the old institutions, leaving them with policies designed to address a world that no longer exists.
The Screaming Eagles at 171 “Is it sad, that I decided not to do anything this new years eve and day, simply because I wanted to be in a decent state to watch David Tennant’s last episode as the Doctor tonight?”
Not at all. Watching Doctor Who is the only thing on my “to do” list today - that’s for sure. Mind you, as I’m a non-drinker there was never any real danger that I’d not be in a decent state to watch it.
Happy New Year to everyone - left, right and centre. It looks like being a good one. I fell over really badly on an icy pavement on 21st December and today, the 1st day of the new year, is the first day that I’m feeling anything like OK again. That must mean something!?
If Cameron entered into a coalition with Labour (especially one that kept Brown PM) he could kiss his political career as a top conservative politician goodbye. ConHome shows the grassroots are already very very restive about his PR driven Blue Labour brand and a lab/con coalition would be way beyond the last straw. In fact I think if Cameron doesn;t win and win big in 2010 I think he is toast anyway. Nobody is predicting his demise this year but it’s actually a massive year for him.
sean, i seriously plan to stalk u at the Fcc one friday evening! I’d love to hit a nightclub with you! I have membership and bottles at 2 clubs on Ratchadapisek, and a bottle at Bossy, where an army of young naughty girls invariably strike in appropriate gear after midnite. I promise I won’t ask u to jump on my bike if i’m drunk or stoned. Tsing tsing loy…
166 “Did anyone else notice large numbers of Chinese Latterns drifting across the sky last night
Dont be surprised. There are many, many Chinese Immigrants arrived over the Labour years. How many? 500,000? Who knows.
China town is getting larger and those living there seem to have less english language than those living there 10yrs ago.
I think a Con-Lib coalitin would be very popular. Socially liberal, economically dry (i.e. Gladstonian). If the Tories just thought a little bit long term, STV could allow such a coalition 3 Parliaments to sort out the mess.
wc — upload them on the net; and then paste the link here. I’m using a mobile now; someone else might refer u to a site where u can freely upload pix
208 The Lib Dems by contrast seem set to reap the reward by luck or judgement of avoiding coalition with Labour both next year in Newport and Swansea and quite probably in 2011, by when the unpopular Brown Government will probably be a memory and when they seem set to make gains and quite likely replace Plaid as a weakened Labour’s coalition partner. The price will be a dear one for Labour. The Local Government one that cost them so much in Scotland but out in the cold for Wesrminster they will probably pay it.
BTW I think you are overly harsh on Plaid. With the exception of Ceredigion the current electoral position where they are so ill placed to challenge Labour except in the seats you mention, mean any further breakthroughs would have been amazing under almost any circumstances really.
211
“By 20202, a good home PC will be good enough to produce film quality special effects in real time, slashing production costs, while the internet reduces distribution costs - and the industry giants have lost their economies of scale, and hence their rationale. With them will go the current style of celebrity.”
I assume you have not yet seen Avatar in 3D. Idon’t think the man in the street with a Sony handicam will be doing that in 2020, even if the technology was affordable. There were lots of people in Michelangelo’s day who could afford the best technology of the day (paints, canvas, chisels) but not many Michelangelos.
‘The politicians and public of the 2010s may well be asked bigger questions than have been in play at any time since at least the 1980s and maybe the 1930s. It’s going to be an interesting decade.’
If the politicians are really serious about restoring their credibilty & engaging the public, then getting the public more involved via referendums on key issues would achieve that.
215 Ken, its not Chinese immigrants, Chinese Lanterns are a big thing in the Manga generation (usually white late teens/early twenties). They are a fun way to round of an evening, watching them climb and drift out of sight, though I always worry about thatched cottages, hay barns and fields of dry grass crops.
Just been listening to discussion about Jack Straw’s lazy coppers remarks.
Predictably the fuzz are peed off about - particularly since he said it on NYE and probably their busiest night.
Then I popped over to HYS and the comments are an interesting if rather depressing mix of:
a) coppers are lazy and are only interested in fining people/sitting in cars and
b) are only doing what HMG have made them do/arse-covering against H&S claims.
So in one interview, Mr Straw has managed to annoy coppers, draw attention to the fact that the police are seen tax-collectors and that Labour have replaced ‘real work’ with form filling.
Interestingly - a PCSO said that they did virtually no form-filling at all - makes you wonder if that’s why it’s only PCSOs you see on the streets…
I am pleased to see The Sun and The Times focusing in on the government’s debts. They both however bas their editorials on the figures as provided by the government.
Maybe someone from the news media could ask of HM Treasury why there is a total of GBP 185 billion of ‘accounting adjustment’ included in the figures reducing a spend of GBP 800 billion to GBP 615-odd billion. The accounting adjustments are three times bigger than any in previous years. What are they, and why are the figures so big?
Surely accounting ‘adjustments’ of this size warrant a note in the accounts, being 30% of the total value of government spending in 2009. These are not small figures being slipped through in some way without explanation.
Are expenses being reclassified as assets, for example? If so, have the assets been valued at cost of purchase or at current market value, or by what method of valuation?
If these, by chance, happened to be purchases of bank shares, they could be hiding a GBP 50 - 100 billion loss.
Awww - if Ave It appears
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthpicturegalleries/6868055/Pictures-of-the-year-2009-cute-animals.html?image=16
208. The simple answer is no, SNP are more popular and when the real election comes in 2011 they will increase their vote easily.
Happy New Year to everyone from a sunny but wintery Centreparcs.
218
By 20202 the ants will have taken over.
Fox, starting the, ‘Lets prepare the public for the Invasion of Iran’ campaign.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6972937.ece
Can’t wait to see Seant’s comments when we stand, ‘Shoulder to Shoulder’ with our US allies in the battle for Stali….whoops sorry Tehran.
This cartoon says it all.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
Excellent Coldstone [225].
Happy New year to all at PB.
Not sure what the teens will hold personally (not looking good!) but the who ever wins the next election will have to be very skilful to succeed with the economy and keep the public with them. The collapse of the Labour Party is a real possibility and a catastrophic, and irrelevant, pro/anti EU split in the Tory Party could make UK politics very interesting.
218, I assume you have not yet seen Avatar in 3D. I don’t think the man in the street with a Sony handicam will be doing that in 2020, even if the technology was affordable.
It will be affordable, given current trends. Of course, it takes more than that to make a good film, but if there are 5 million people who can afford it, odds are several of them will also have the other talents needed.
Obviously, big studios will still be able to afford better equipment than the man in the street, but they can’t give their customers better eyes, not this century. There are limits to how much detail people can see, how accurately we can distinguish colours. Once film technology reaches that limit, further improvements will be beyond the capacity of the human eye to detect, and hence rather pointless, but that limit isn’t that far off.
Suppose that in 2020, a film every bit as good as Avatar, visually, can be made for between £20,000 and £200,000. The big studios can do slightly better, by spending £200,000,000 - but not enough better to be worth spending 1000-times more. It’s more efficient to make a 1000 Avatar-standard films, 90% of which will flop, than to make just one slightly better film, with 50% chance of flopping.
The net effect is that the big studios, having lost their economies of scale, would no longer make commercial sense, and would have to change or die.
Now, all this depends on technology advancing as I expect, but it seems a reasonable extrapolation.
208: Punter.
I was referring to a general mood regarding PC and their future prospects. Whilst they may win a referendum regarding extra powers for WAG, they could well see their political vote decline, as their economic policy is non-existent and economics will drive Welsh politics in the future.
Kalman says.
Tory majority of 3 as we start 2010…
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/
If you missed it - PD James skewers Mark Thompson completely.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8435000/8435723.stm
She’s as sharp as a tack.
230 Yes I understood that and raised the Lib Dems as bemefiting from their decision to keep clear of Labour after the last WA elections and being in a position to benefot handsomely as a result.
WRT Plaid they have more importantly than economics not yet found a way to convince English speakers that they are for them as well. That remains their biggest problem I think.
221. Plato January 1st, 2010 at 11:32 am
The funny thing is, a policeman of my acquaintance likes to make exactly the same accusation (against his colleagues, not himself). I’m pretty certain he’ll be up in arms about Straw saying it though. It’s slagging off your mother - OK if you do it but not if other people do.
Excellent article David. Where will we be in 2020?
The Conservative and Labour parties will probably be on their last legs, organisationally, totally hollowed out. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a right/left divide, still, or that there won’t be a future for former Conservative and Labour politicians, I just think the split will play out differently.
Race, and religion, will become more important sources of political division, and this, as well as disillusion with the bigger parties, will help the minor parties. In all likelihood, UKIP, BNP, and Greens (or parties like them) will have a handful of MPs by the end of the decade.
The economy will probably do quite well during the decade. A decade of below-trend economic growth, will be followed by a decade of above-trend economic growth, kick-started by the devaluation in sterling, and fostered by a government that is geared towards promoting economic growth. The recovery will be joyless, for at least half a decade, as extra revenues all go towards reducing the deficit, and public spending is cut back. Shares will double in value, overall, during the decade.
The UK will become even more semi-detached from the EU, and economic and political power will continue to move Eastwards.
235: Sean Fear @ 12:00
“A decade of below-trend economic growth, will be followed by a decade of above-trend economic growth, kick-started by the devaluation in sterling, and fostered by a government that is geared towards promoting economic growth.”
I hope you are right even though I cannot see any sign of the already huge devaluation in sterling doing anything other than push up prices nor do I find any evidence of a government (existing or in waiting) that will be geared to promoting economic growth.
What sectors of the economy are going to start growing because sterling has devalued? How much lower does sterling have to sink before they start? Just what does the UK make or do that people, abroad especially, will want to buy?
Sterling devaluations tend to take a couple of years to work through into higher exports.
“Just what does the UK make or do that people, abroad especially, will want to buy?”
Books, software, educational services, drugs, armaments, legal services, insurance, banking, and financial services.