Is John Rentoul right about June 27th 2007?
December 31st, 2009
Was this the moment that Labour was “doomed”?
In an interesting column on electoral reform today the Indy writer who often seems to be more Blairite than Blair, John Rentoul, made the following observation:-
“..I am bound by that old self-denying ordinance not to name names, but something happened on 27 June 2007. That something virtually ensured that the party was doomed at the forthcoming election…”
Is Rentoul being unfair. Was Brown always doomed to defeat or are we, even at this stage, being premature?
On the face of it the polling numbers point to defeat - but they are better for Labour than they were in mid-September 2008 just before the Lehman Brothers collapse.
Events could still intervene and prevent the seemingly inevitable progress of Mr. Cameron towards Downing Street. It is possible that he’s squeezed out of an overall majority but very few pundits are suggesting that Labour could end up as top dogs.
Labour strategists are keen to point to 1992 when John Major apparently came from certain defeat to win by an overall vote margin of nearly 8%. But Major was in a vastly better position than Brown is today. The December 1991 polls had the Tories hovering around 40% - a huge difference compared with Labour’s current standings.
The polling thresholds for me are the Conservatives at 37% and Labour at 32%. If most of the firms get into that range then maybe Brown could pull off a Houdini act.
This is my last post of 2009. Let’s see what the new year brings.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
last?
Damn - but the good news is I came second
2.
Were antifrank a true gentleman, he would surely have let the lady come first?
No, Brown wasn’t doomed to lose. Even leaving aside the 2007 election-that-never-was, my view is that he could have won a 2009 election. (I’ll be happy to expand on this once Labour are safely in opposition!)
Yes - as was Blair or any Labour leader.
Rentoul is being unfair, however since it’s Gordon, I won’t kick up too much of a fuss.
Yes he was already doomed to defeat.
He took over a party in which the Blairites were still sore about the way Brown had thwarted many of Blair’s public service reforms and over the way their hero was pushed into going. What we didn’t know at the time was the ticking timebomb in the financial markets which would cause the economy to implode but even if the economy had remained favourable then it would still have gone oear shaped on him. What destroyed Brown’s reputation was the election that never was and then the HMRC discs fiasco which created an impression of a dysfunctional and incompetent government body whose creation had been one of Brown’s pet projects, just like the FSA!!
FPT - Bogey Paul Jewell. I would think Peter Reid was the bet with Coral at 4-1 and I think Alan Curbishley has to be respected on Betfair.
Very hasty reply, more to follow. Great market.
I’ve taken Curbishley.
But the ridiculous odds are on Slaven Bilic.
The first Party Political Broadcast for Labour will be the killer. If it has Gordon Brown in it, Labour have lost.
6. What do you think of the Buckingham story?
FPT 416 Well said SeanT. The web of international treaties, obligations and sheer interconnectedness of markets for labour, capital and goods means that sovereignty is continually being diminished for all nations, including the superpowers. Even the US has to be mindful these days as to how China will react to its budgets. And with the regulatory powers of the EC, the situation is much worse for EU countries (provinces?).
As for the notion of sovereignty as the right to declare war, for the little nations, the notion that they can declare war (except on neighbouring states which are even smaller and weaker) or even defend themselves without outside help is risible. Even the UK can no longer project power without the US.
8 - Tim, rumours I’ve heard are that it’ll be Darren Ferguson.
The logic behind this is, Daddy will let several players go out on loan to Bolton in January, which allow Bolton to spend on other players as well.
“414 - I’m sorry Christina, it’s really nothing personal. It’s just that I can’t abide liars.
Sadly, you lie every time you post. Every point you make is ‘proven’ by some fake anecdote about what the gals in your sewing club think.”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/31/is-this-the-new-years-message-that-labour-didnt-want-to-hear/#comment-1365158
Mr GlesgaNat - that is a very serious charge against a long standing and according to Mr Smithson’s recent poll a very well regarded commentator.
If you have evidence for your assertions - I’m sure the PB community would happily review it.
2
http://FTP.Extremely nasty post glesganat, and I suggest that you withdraw that allegation straight away. You have appeared out of no where in recent days, and I have yet to see you add anything positive to this site.
442 FPT: “437. That seems out of sync. Is the Assembly only elected for 2 years and the State Senate for longer? New Jersey will be interesting to watch in the long term. Its cultural fit doesn’t seem to be as Liberal as the rest of the North East and was in the 80’s the classic home of the Reagan Democrat. Add a lazy and weakened Democratic state party and it could just possibly trend the way of West Virginia. Too long term to affect Obama though as States always turn at State level before Presidential but if the GOP does make a comeback anywhere in the North East it could well be NJ as much as NH.”
Yes, the assembly is elected for two years and the senate for four. I don’t think NJ will ever vote like WV, but its intensely suburban nature does make it ripe to swing strongly based on economic issues, which distinguishes it from states like New York or Massachusetts (and also distinguishes it from WV).
One interesting thing will be whether Corzine keeps pouring his wealth into the NJ Democratic machine. Since his political career looks to be at a dead end, my guess is he won’t, which could make the state a lot more competitive going forward.
10 - Since there is no official Conservative candidate standing, Conservative party members are free to vote for whomever they want, how can you discipline party members for voting for someone else, when there is no Tory candidate.
I think Cameron is desperate to ensure UKIP don’t get into Parliament.
Is Bercow worried?
Should we review this article again?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235630/John-Bercows-unelected-new-seat.html
4 I was of opinion even in Autumn 2007 that if Brown held an election he would lose an overall majority and that he would have been left as largest party. In part I shared Rentoul’s view that Labour had chosen the wrong leader for an election but also that the Conservatives had chosen the right one.
I can see myself how Brown could have perhaps squeezed the Tories in early 2009 (before G20/Budget/McBride) as the Safe Choice and perhaps achieved largest party but cannot see easily how Labour could have retained a majority any time after Cameron was elected leader.
The Conservatives still are tarred with the failure of their economic policy in 1992/3, which damaged them permanently in the 35-55 age group but Labour have been on a down swing since their first term and selecting as leader going into a putative 4th term a man who had run domestic policy since 1997 was the wrong choice.
6.
“Rentoul is being unfair”
Tony Blair’s chief media lickspittle prefers official Tories to Gordo’s crew. John Motson says “Quite remarkable”.
12 - TSE.
Ferguson to Preston makes more sense for the same reasons as Fergies reserves are far more likely to go out on loan to a championship club.
Punter, one other thing… you said “States always turn at State level before Presidential.”
This is not always true. In fact, it is usually the reverse. The entire south has turned Republican at the presidential level while much of it still hasn’t turned GOP at the state level. And, since you mentioned WV, that state is still strongly Democratic at the state level even though it has gone from safe Dem to safe GOP at the presidential level over the last decade or so.
19 - With the greatest respect to Preston, if you were Darren Ferguson, you had a choice of managing a club that is struggling in the Premier League or in the Championship, which one would you choose?
There is something in Rentoul’s post that I find fascinating. Revenge is a dish best eaten cold, and Blair hasn’t had his repast yet.
TSE at 12.Fair point and a good price at Betfair or Satan James.
14 Chris, we have previously been lucky not to have been infected by the rotten tendency in the cybernats, with Oldnat, marcia and Stuart presenting the acceptable face of the SNP, those days seem to have gone.
16
I thought the reaction to the floating of the “Commons” seat was pathetically spiteful. It’s quite clearly an idea to rectify the downsides to an ordinary constituency of having a Speaker as an MP.
New Year diet starts at Scrap-towers tomorrow.
My goal is losing 2 stone by the time of the general election.
Please god then for a May election at the earliest…
The Bye-Bye Brown diet.
I will celebrate by having a slap up full english brekkie and personal street party once the big day has hopefully arrived.
22 - I have a feeling, that parts of Blair’s autobiography maybe leaked to the media, during a GE campaign.
You know, the ones most damning about Brown.
I think Mr Blair would like to see a Labour Majority at the next election, but let’s say one of his loyal aides, who saw at first hand, how bad Brown treated Blair, and would love to contrast Blair’s huge majorities, with Brown’s once in a generation defeat.
When it is finally written, it will be said of Gordon Brown, he ruined two premierships, his own, and Blairs
GlesgaNat starts posting here and very quickly accuses ChristinaD of being a liar and, more than that, of lying everytime she posts.
Regulars will know of Christina’s record of posting, so I think GlesgaNat must either provide evidence or withdraw.
25 - I think if Bernard Weatherill or Betty Boothroyd has proposed that, no one would have objected to it.
Since it was Bercow’s idea, people were naturally suspicious
22 - Would he have the choice?
Do you think Bolton would go for an inexperienced manager with no experience except at Peterborough.
I reckon Preston for him.
15 S&S I’ve never truly understood why NJ is as Democratic as it is. With the exception of the truly ugly bits along the Hudson (which are natural democratic demographics but from which you might reasonably expect low voter turnout) the state is either affluent suburbs and exurbs or pretty hick countryside, both of which one might reasonably expect to be independent or republican.
22. MTF - now why would Blair do that…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5326064.stm
I can live with being described as ‘nasty’ or ‘rotten’ on a website that seems to be half-filled with some of the most horrible right wing bigots this side of the GuidoFawkes comments section.
23 - Thanks URW, i’ll put some money on
30 - I think the advantages of having Alex Ferguson’s son as manager outweighs any experience.
Though for OGH’s sake, looks like Owen Coyle is ruling himself out, which isn’t surprising, he turned the Celtic job to stay at Burnley.
Labour have been doomed - DOOMED to defeat since Gordon Brown became PM, he sealed the fate though before he even became PM. Gordon Brown is useless as I have always stated on here.
Labour are doomed - DOOMED to defeat because they are useless.
Lets remember though even if Gordon had not become PM Blair would have been unlikely to have gone to the country in the period between that date and now. Given the recession and all the problems in Afganistan and Iraq plus all the sleaze i dont think Blair staying on would have solved it. It has to be remembered Blair started being really unpopular toward the end but for the last month or two when it was none he was going.
24.Ted, there is a small minority of deeply unpleasant and very aggressive cybernats ruining the Scottish blogsphere right now. I find it almost a no go area these days. That type of post is par for the course, I even get outed as the chippy Scots Tory who posts on PB.com on some blogs, I kid you not! How aggressive, sad and pathetic is that?
33 - Breaking
http://www.clubcall.com/preston-north-end/ferguson-north-end-frame-999799.html
25. Apart from not being able to put questions to ministers in the chamber, the Speaker can still carry out all the normal functions of a constituency MP - writing to ministers, putting constituents’ cases etc. Given his or her position of both power and prestige, I’d have thought that ministers wouldn’t be slack in responding.
The idea of a Commons seats is a step back to the pre-1832 days and should be opposed on the same basis as the Rotten and Pocket boroughs were.
35 - Just imagine, if someone who worked for the SNP was using blogs to smear people, just how unpleasant the Scottish Blogosphere be?
32
I have also wondered if Guido still has stuff up his sleeve.. in the decaying days of Brown, who knows what was and will be leaked.
26 Scrapheap. You may be onto something here. Perhaps a PB team bye-bye Brown diet to whittle away the excesses of the Season.
35. “I even get outed as the chippy Scots Tory who posts on PB.com on some blogs, I kid you not! How aggressive, sad and pathetic is that?”
Very. There’s at least two chippy Scots Tories on PB.com, for starters.
24. “Chris, we have previously been lucky not to have been infected by the rotten tendency in the cybernats”
That’s true, although sadly we haven’t been so lucky with cyberthugs of other hues. Hopefully GlesgaNat will settle down and become a constructive poster - there are plenty of ways of drawing attention to the dubious claims of other posters without being abusive.
40 - I think Guido has said he still has some stuff for smeargate that he will publish closer to the election.
43 - For = From
36 - Ta, I can see why Preston would want him, also I can see why Bolton would want him too.
31- NJ is a schizophrenic beast, both because of its NYC/Philly split and its urban/rural split. Some cultural liberalism does bleed in from those border cities to the neighboring NJ counties, which combines with the minority vote in towns like Newark and Jersey City to generally deliver victories to Democrats. Note, though, that the Dems have won a lot of close statewide races over the years and Republicans have stayed relatively competitive. Chris Christie is no liberal Republican either, and he was still able to win. If we see another year or two of economic stagnation, NJ is just the sort of state that would be likely to see large numbers of voters peel away from the Dems.
June 27th Mmmm..
I have a feeling it was earlier still say September 2006. The question is what would the blackmail have been that Brown stood accused off? Note I have purposely included a Guardian report link to avoid any accusations of a tory press smear tactic
“An all-out power struggle between the chancellor and the prime minister, culminating with allegations of blackmail by Tony Blair and a ferocious shouting match between the two men, appeared last night to have forced Mr Blair to publicly declare as early as today that he will not be prime minister this time next year.”
Tom Watson and others resigned with this statement I bet they wish they could now take back
“Sadly, it is clear to us - as it is to almost the entire party and the entire country - that without an urgent change in the leadership of the party it becomes less likely that we will win the next election. That is the brutal truth. It gives us no pleasure to say it. But it has to be said. And understood.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2006/sep/07/uk.labourleadership
The entire report is horrific in a democratic society and the knives had to be already out at that point and culminated the day after Blair left No 10. The Labour party has been split since 2006 between the Brownites and the Blairites. This at a time when they needed to be united for us all but failed.
Ferrets in a sack indeed and time for them all to go for good.
On topic, the main thrust of Rentoul’s argument is right, although AV may bring Labour back faster than FPTP (because Lib Dems and Others may be more likely to swing towards Labour under a Tory administration), it could also both inflict heavier defeats and make it harder to win outright at all.
Another point to consider is that AV - as with PR - significantly reduces many of the disincentives to parties splitting and enables small parties to grow. The wasted vote argument that is so potent becomes irrelevant as a vote for a losing candidate can simply be transferred to the party that would get the tactical one now.
christina, i may forcefully disagree with your politics, particularly on what thatcher did to scotland’s industries, and i admit you got me so worked up i used CAPITAL LETTERS, but i do not think you are a liar, certainly not intentionally, on any subject, and i think the comment from glesganat demands an apology to be given to you. your pithy north east scotland anecdotes are often interesting.
if an apology or justification is not offered not then i think OGH should make the offender’s IP address defunct to this site.
please do not think because people disagree vehemently that they cannot respect another viewpoint.
37%-32%, eh?
That’s where I forecast it to end up.
Here’s an interesting thought…
Suppose the Tories emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament, and take office.
Further suppose that they refuse to hold the AV referendum.
Further suppose Labour, LibDems, Nats, Unionists and Independents all support the referendum (it’s reasonable to suppose that they might) and combine to bring the Tories down on the issue.
Second election on the issue of the referendum?
Or even a change of government without an election - a grand reforming coalition?
“there are plenty of ways of drawing attention to the dubious claims of other posters without being abusive.
by James Kelly December 31st, 2009 at 4:21 ”
Yes, but they’re not half as much fun.
ChristinaD said “there is a small minority of deeply unpleasant and very aggressive cybernats ruining the Scottish blogsphere right now”
The Nationalist thugs have ruined Scottish sites for quite. The Scotsman used to have an excellent news site but comments are near impossible. The Nationalist thugs are like hyenas, throwing abuse and writing in unreadable Glaswegian text messaging text.
Scottish Nationalist are thugs and drive out decent people. They dont care if it turns Scotland into a African Basket case of the north. But those that do the same in dictatorships rarely care about the long term - they only want to be in charge.
The great irony of course being that Sion Simon and Tom Watson are both Midlands MPs, where Browns personal negatives are so big that they are likely to cost Labour the election.
Utter pricks the pair of them.
I want to defend Christina at this time of year.
She isn’t a liar, she does genuinely believe that David Cameron is the Son of God.
53 - Who are you and what have you done with the real tim..?
I would like to know what Gordon Brown had on Tony Blair that forced him to resign.
49. I agree GlesgaNat went too far in specifically calling Christina a liar, but I hope we aren’t going to lose a sense of perspective about this - in some ways it was a post ‘in the style of SeanT’ and I didn’t see anyone coming to Nick Palmer’s rescue when he started getting abuse hurled at him earlier today.
50. I doubt the Unionists would make an issue of PR. They only grudingly accepted it for local and Assembly elections in NI. Their preference would be for FPTP.
52. It will get worse soon. They were boasting about the SNP winning 20 seats not so long ago. They will get seven or eight.
47. The more significant point for us all is how the Blair Brown struggle damaged the country’s economy.
I have seen the theory canvassed in several respectable papers, that Brown deliberately let spending rip after 2001, and especially 2005 (when he had been reasonably prudent before) because he wanted to engineer the most feelgood situation imaginable, for when he became prime minister.
Lets face it, given what we know of Brown’s character - his monstrous ego and psychotic insecurity - this is hardly inconceivable.
It was Labour’s failure to rein in spending during those good times that are leaving us so crippled now the bad times are upon us.
Brown didn’t just ruin two premierships with his ambition, he ruined us all. What an enormous and hypocritical wanker he is. I hope he gets tertiary herpes for the rest of his puff.
Would Labour’s position have been worse if Blair was still in charge, which seems to be Rentoul’s point in the highlighted paragraph? I very much doubt it.
- Blair would still have been associated with Iraq and Afghanistan to a greater extent than Brown is.
- The economy would still have gone belly up.
- Feuding between Brown and Blair (and their support teams) would have got even worse if Blair had held on, which could have proved disastrous during the Banking Crisis.
- The cabinet would just look really tired with the top two having been in place for 13 years.
And in case Rentoul was thinking of any other possibility, they simply didn’t exist. If Blair sttod down or was deposed during this parliament, there was never anyone other than Brown who was going to take over; he simply had too much support and there was too much expectation.
42 James Kelly. Good job sticking up for ChristinaD. You and I disagree on most things, but we keep it civil. It’s not that difficult.
I think OGH should give GlesgaNat a chance to adapt, to see if he has something positive to add, before exile.
During my travels today, I caught part of a discission on The World at One between 3 former Labour ministers (Clake, Hewitt and Joyce) about making cuts / improving efficiency in Government. During the bit about pensions they said that people either had to work longer, pay more or take a lower pension.
At no stage did anyone suggest reversing the tax on pension funds introduced as one of his first acts by Brown. Over a 40 year period, the time people need to contribute to as pension, Brown’s change in taxation will cost the pension funds somewhere north of £750bn and make a considerable differnce to the pension pots of everyone whether in a defined benefit or defined contribution scheme.
The failure to mention tax reductions is an example of the mindset of the Labour Party. Put taxes up, get adverse effects and then blame those who have been most severely affected. This is but one area where tax reductions need to be implemented in order to make long term savings to the benefit of both national and individual finances.
FPT 430 TimB Sorry, my gut tells me that Philly will win this one. However, at least it’s in Dallas, so the cold should not be an issue.
I wish I could disagree with your gut TimT. Dallas are 3 point favorites last time I looked, but I think Philly have improved so that even with Romo playing his best for some time it won’t be enough.
Just got back from the gym (hence my delay in response). My personal trainer is going to the Chic Fil A Bowl this evening to see if his Vols beat the Hokies.
BTW 5″ of fresh snow fell last night so we’re back in winter wonderland.
We had sleet yesterday afternoon and evening and it was in the mid 30s overnight (and still is). Hotlanta indeed
On topic.
but they are better for Labour than they were in mid-September 2008 just before the Lehman Brothers collapse.
But considerably worse than they were in December 2008 - Labour are around 7 points down on average comparing December 2008 and December 2009 polls and three points down year on year comparing averages of polls for 2008 and 2009). Looking at Labour’s best share of the each of the two year it is also down from 36% in 2008 to 34% in 2009. The Conservatives on the other hand remained virtually unchanged in their 40% levels of support. In poll terms 2009 was worse for Labour than 2008.
Mike is right though where he says that Major’s Conservatives were in a far superior position in 92 (even Tony Blair in 97 couldn’t mobilise such a vote). There is no comparison between Labour now and the Conservatives in 92. Labour strategists are just clutching at straws and if ever there is a warning of imminent doom it is strategists clutching at straws.
In hindsight all the signs were there that Brown would be a disaster - Browns unsavoury political and personal traits, the weakness of the Parliamentary party in allowing him to ascend unchallenged, the overheated economy underpinned by massive debt, the obese public sector and the smouldering expenses issue and in one way or another all these issues can be were directly linked to him.
However, it still takes events and actions (or lack of them) to bring such things to fruition and I think Rentoul is being unfair to suggest that it was somehow almost preordained that Brown would lead Labour to doom, however possible it would have seemed at the time. Brown could have changed it. What would be fair to say is that Brown in his prior existence had laid all the foundations to make such a scenario possible.
63 - Lamont introduced it, not Brown.
I agree with the trend - when posters or political targets are attacked, those who do so are merely telling the rest of us of their fears.
Nothing premature, its just that some people can’t see the writing on the wall.
Rentoul is correct in his assessment. Governments reach tipping points from which there is no way back. Hard to spot at the time but obvious in hindsight.
This government has been slowing slipping down the downslope for over 2 years and there is no possible way back now.
CCan Mandelson become Prime Minister by midnight?
I’ve got £10 at 200/1 riding on it.
67. “I agree with the trend - when posters or political targets are attacked, those who do so are merely telling the rest of us of their fears.”
Ahem…
54 - ‘e’s not the Messiah, ‘e’s a Very Naughty Boy …
56 “I would like to know what Gordon Brown had on Tony Blair that forced him to resign.”
Momentum. Health concerns, resignations, a general feeling within Labour that he’d ‘had his time and it was Gordon’s turn’. Also, I got the impression that Blair really couldn’t be all that bothered fighting the incessant battles that staying in post meant.
63. Wrong, tim, wrong.
69 Long shot i think
69 - And can Ed Balls become Chancellor at midnight too?
If both happen, I’ll be as rich as creases
4 “…..my view is that [Brown] could have won a 2009 election - I’ll be happy to expand on this once Labour are safely in opposition!”
How curiously expressed Richard. That sounds like you know something the rest of us don’t.
72 Just had a thought-the piccy at the top of this thread could well be the scene the day after the next election when (and I now say ‘when’ not ‘if’) Brown tenders his resignation as PM to the cameras and country
66. tim December 31st, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Without going into text books etc to look at it i think you are talking about the dividend tax at 10%. The point is Brown removed the ability for it to be claimed back - Lamont if he did introduce the dividend tax credit as you say did not do that. Brown effected a change whereby the tax credit could not be redeemed. Two entirly different issues!
72 No. I dont think it was something as soft as that.
I reckon it was more akin to “If you dont resign the photos will be leaked” or “…tell them where the bodies are”
Labour wouldn’t have been doomed, if Brown had pulled the trigger in 2007. Labour might have been returned with a reduced majority, but a majority it still would have been. Then Brown (or his Labour successor, I suppose) would be preparing for a festive New Year’s Eve at 10 Downing Street, knowing that he need not face the voters again until about the time of the next U.S. presidential election.
64 TimB We were told to expect freezing rain, but got snow.
Off to the vet’s. The last week has been bad. One barn cat down with pemphigus - looks like someone poured battery acid over his face. 5 different medications and solitary for him. For a feral cat, though, he has been good for his medicine. His full sister, 2 days later, was limp as a wet rag. Cancer. Put her down yesterday
On the bright side, Aiofe is unbearably happy and cute - even more so now there is snow.
58. Disagree. There are a few seats in NI where the Unionists would be in with a chance, but for the split UUP/DUP vote.
AV can’t hurt them, but could bring back Belfast South and Fermanagh & South Tyrone. Logically they should support it.
38.TSE, indeed. They need to rein in and fast, they really are damaging themselves. And if you are going to take a very direct and bad tempered pop at someone, don’t do it to the editor of a major Scottish Sunday paper.
42.”there are plenty of ways of drawing attention to the dubious claims of other posters without being abusive.”
James, are you implying that his allegations have some grounds on here, because that is what it sounds like to me!
Stuart has already tried to claim that my posts should be treated with caution too and you both jumped on the same bandwagon that day?
What do you suggest instead, should I let myself be bullied off this site by aggressive and very personal attacks from some SNP posters. Would that be any less dubious a way of shutting down genuine cross party debate on here? Are we going to end with the same story on PB.com that seems to have happened elsewhere in the Scottish blogs. Just one voice of opinion about Scottish politics, the SNP national broadcast?
Last night the same poster called on me to state where the SNP were spending money in their heartlands, I duly did so, he disappeared until he popped again just now. Odd that this poster seems so exercised by my posts and immediately resorts to these tactics on here don’t you think?
50. “Suppose the Tories emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament, and take office. Further suppose that they refuse to hold the AV referendum”
Leaving aside the implication contained within the use of ‘refuse’, as if there would be something morally improper in not supporting and implementing the policy of another party, the only sensible option would be to resign the government. Calling a second election on that issue would be so close to holding a referendum that it would be awkward explaining the course of action chosen to the country.
80 And happily co-inciding with the 2012 Olympics,the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee,the economy will be well into recovery by 2012..wonder if Brown ever looks back and says ‘If only I’d gone in autumn 2007′ ?
77. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but has despaired of Gordon Brown December 31st, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Readers of my Recovery starts when Gordon loses his job will have seen the picture of Brown outside No.10 where he has striped sarah nak€d for votes (Brown said he would not use his family of props but has done so!).
A good depiction IMO!
After what Brown tried doing through mcbride a satiricle view of Browns behaviour maybe puches the envelope but is not out of order! :smile;
46 - What do you think of the possibility of Houston Mayor Bill White picking up the Texas governorship for the Dems in W’s background?
83. “James, are you implying that his allegations have some grounds on here, because that is what it sounds like to me!
Stuart has already tried to claim that my posts should be treated with caution too and you both jumped on the same bandwagon that day?”
Christina, I chose my words carefully, and I did so for a reason. However, I don’t think any poster should be subjected to abuse here - I’ve been on the wrong end of that kind of thing as well and it doesn’t do this site any favours.
Labour signed their death warrant when they reneged on their 1997 committment to a referendum on PR. The landslide(s) went to their heads.
FPTP nutters like Straw and Prescott prefer traditional 2 party politics to a prospect of having to share power.
Now its all too late. They’ll be out of power for 10-15 years. What a missed opportunity.
75. *Creases* is just a brilliant nickname for Chris Huhne.
It simultaneously sums up his slightly bizarre wealth and his Mister Bean-ish boringness, while alluding to his famous exes claim for a trouserpress.
Hats off to the inventor. It’s a shame Creases didn’t become the leader of the Libs, then he’d be in the news more and we could use the nickname constantly until Creases himself exploded from apoplexia.
84
David
It might not come to that, surely the Govt resigning would not automatically lead to a GE ? Would not the Queen have to see if anyone else could form an administration first? My memory of Brit Constitution AS level is a trifle rusty…
79 - Ken. I very much doubt it was anything as explicit as that. At worst, my guess is that it would have been “there’ll be more resignations”.
Blair stated in 2004 that he wouldn’t lead Labour into a fourth election (though he intended to serve nearly all of the parliament preceding it). From that moment, the clock was ticking and his authority was draining as MPs, ministers, the media and anyone else looked to his successor. By 2006/7, it meant that in practical terms it was impossible to start any new initiatives without the active support of Brown - which meant that to a large extent Brown was running things anyway. Why bother to end his premiership with another two years of that ahead?
One other point to consider - Mrs Blair may have been quite keen for Tony to quit No10 earlier rather than later and start earning some cash.
88.I thought so. Thanks very much!
james, throw in humour and ridicule and satire, and it is more acceptable than a straight out coarse comment that someone is a liar with no backing up for the statement, or reasoning to the argument.
so if christina thinks she can defend thatcher; (in my view) an untenable position, then good luck to her!
69 - As long as Alan Johnson survives till midnight.
92 - Let’s never forget Sion Simon’s role in forcing Blair out.
In the 2 years I have been lurking/posting, I have never seen any evidence of Christina lying. I have, on the other hand, seen plenty of evidence that she is polite poster and not prone to throwing abuse at others.
50. Rod Crosby
What AV referendum? My understanding is that it is a Labour Manifesto pledge (and we know how meaningful they are) - nothing more. If Labour do not form the next Government then the AV referendum will be off to the landfill with all the rest of the garbage (probably will be if Labour form the next Government as well).
82 But FPTP helps whichever is the lead Unionist party at the time, currently, the DUP.
AV would put South Antrim, East Londonderry, and maybe even East Belfast at risk for them. For the DUP, remaining top dog is the all-important thing.
60 The bad long-term economic news keeps spewing out, with the revelation today that GDP per head is actually 1.3% lower than it was at the time of the last general election. Overall, GDP per head has risen by 19% since Labour came to power, which is 1.5% a year, considerably below the long run average since 1950. Attlee and Wilson (let alone the various Conservative leaders) were economic giants by comparison with the man who abolished boom and bust.
82. Maybe so, but Unionist politicians aren’t known for logical, rational thinking!
91. That is correct, although if the PM requested a dissolution to test public opinion on the issue in question to trump parliament, she’d need to be on very solid ground. As a minimum, she’d have to be absolutely sure that the opposition (a) wouldn’t request a dissolution themselves and (b) could actually command support in the House - it’s quite a different thing putting together a one-off coalition to defeat the government on a question from building a coalition to form a government (if such a coalition existed, why wouldn’t Labour have stayed in office?).
On topic:
Yes. Forget the bounce that evaporated rapidly after the 2007 season. The elements that would doom Brown have been there since the 80s. Hubris and an unwillingness to listen to anything that displeased him are not the making of a good PM.
Actually Maggie had those faults but it took them a lot longer to cause her downfall (Poll Tax/Europe). Blair was onto a sticky wicket once he got it over Europe. Of course you need some strength otherwise you end up running the Major government.
87- Bill White is a reasonably strong Democratic candidate, but we’ve been here before… that is, strong/rich Democratic candidate for governor/senator, a lot of excitement, fizzle at the polls. I highly doubt that White will knock off either the incumbent Perry or the fairly popular Hutchison, depending on who wins the GOP primary. In a year like 2006 he might have managed it, but not this year.
Plus, White may be a good candidate but he’s not ideal. The best candidate for the Dems would be someone with more rural, conservative roots who could have a lot of cross-party appeal. White is an urbanite who ran Houston, a city that just elected a lesbian as mayor. This doesn’t really give him a lot of credibility with traditional Texas independents or conservative Dems from the countryside.
84. OK, look at it another way.
To prevent the referendum, the Tories would have to legislate against it.
In a hung parliament, there might be a majority in favour of AV, so the Tories would either
a) be unable to legislate it away, in which case the referendum goes ahead.
b) try to legislate, making it a confidence issue, which they might lose.
In scenario b) it’s not inconceivable that the Queen might refuse a dissolution.
oohhhhhh:
Possible Deselection Alert for Barry Sheerman and a push poll as to whether Gordon Brown should stay or go as PM before a GE! I voted for him to stay!
http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/local-west-yorkshire-news/2009/12/31/barry-sheerman-attacks-unloved-gordon-brown-but-local-labour-bosses-are-unhappy-86081-25498426/
HYUFD, your answer is in moderation…
98.SallyC,Plato&Co, thanks. Have already seen my well planned and eagerly anticipated New Years plans wrecked by the severe weather up here. But that post from glesganat has managed to bring my year on this site to a very unpleasant end, it really had me wishing that I had just not bothered to visit here today. When you ignore the ball and go straight for another poster in such a manner, you are not interested in debating the issues. Now this thread on the last day of the year is bringing my honesty as a poster into question. I smelt a large rat with this poster last night with the tone of his posts directed at me.
101 For the DUP, beating the UUP always takes priority to beating the Nationalists. AV holds nothing for the DUP.
99. I though Labour’s plan was to enact the legislation for the referendum this side of the election, meaning it would require new legislation from the Tories to stop it?
104. Rod C
In a hung parliament, there might be a majority in favour of AV, so the Tories would either.
Rod, there might be all sorts of things that happen like a good proportion of Labour MPs might oppose AV (Tom Harris for example).
The thing is the country will want the Government to focus on the economy and if the opposition parties hold the economy to ransom over what is effectively some nerdy political version of swapping the deckchairs on the Titanic (our political classes) then so be it. Cameron will call an election and get his overall majority (not that I believe a hung parliament is a likely outcome in the first place).
110. No Gordo did a u-turn on that - as I said before it’s an election manifesto pledge - nothing more.
82 On the bright side, Aiofe is unbearably happy and cute - even more so now there is snow
I hope Zopher is not being unduly neglected!
110 Re 112
Michael Crick on the topic:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2009/09/arent_all_election_promises_hy.html
110. RodCrosby December 31st, 2009 at 5:09 pm
What if Cameron proposes a National Government run by him after the GE to sort out the mess Labour have created. Given it would be a new parliament with much of the expenses sleaze put behind it, i dont think the people would appreciate Labour/LD playing silly buggers especially if the Tories were over 40% but did not command a majority. Labour/LD could find themseleves in a very awkward position and i suspect some of those Labour/LD who have the national interest at heart rather than petty positioning would enter such a national government rather than messing around with further elections.
The interesting thing is Gordon Brown failed at his crack at being able to do this and expenses has not just stopped a national government in this parliament but buried any chance for Gordon Brown to carry on.
108 ChristinaD
Every party has some who behave objectionably. Remember JohnR? He was much nastier about all of us.
And if you don’t cheer up, I’ll repost my Auld Lang syne! So beware!
112. Do you have a source?
I know there will be no referendum before or on the day of the election
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-plans-referendum-on-electoral-reform-ideas-1836799.html
but…the plan is to enact legislation now that sets the date of the referendum in 2011, isn’t it?…
98 - I have to agree. I know little if anything of Scottish politics and always find Christina’s posts interesting and informative - and always polite.
I always enjoy the weather details she gives too, with - I have to hang my head and admit it - a touch of Schadenfreude
I have no idea who glesganat is but I found his mitherings unpleasant, unjustified and completely un-called for.
117 Who knows. Crick said a few Cabinet ministers crunched the AV numbers for their own Constituencies and didn’t like it. It might be the plan now, whether still be the plan by May is another matter.
86- Brown ought to kick himself for not going for it in 2007. In fact, by the mere virtue of having the guts to call the election back then, he might have molded a much more positive public image than the one he has today.
114. Yes, as I pointed out in my analysis of the events of March 1974, Thorpe backed away from demanding pure STV. He initially suggested an STV/AV hybrid system, then settled for a vague “indication” from the Tories that they would call for a “fairer” system (than FPTP) at a Speaker’s conference.
Perhaps the LDs might do something similar in 2010. STV for just the cities, or AV+ with a small top-up (say 10%)?
120 I don’t think he, or the Labour MPs, foresaw how bad things would get for them.
The prospect was of calling an election, and being returned with a significantly reduced majority, if any majority.
I should be in Aviemore for New Year with family and old friends, they are at this moment sitting with the biggest pile of snow they have seen in over 20 years right now. We are talking snow in feet not inches piling up in places. Alas, the weather has made travelling home for this weekend impossible, and the forcast is for yet more heavy snow to keep piling up. We are currently heading into a third weekend of snow too, and the kids might yet get an extended Christmas holidays if this extra snow hits us.
Andrew Neil on his Daily Politics blog - It’s going to be a cold 2010
“As much of the country braces itself for further snow falls and freezing temperatures word reaches me from several US forecasters that the whole of the Northern Hemisphere is in for a very cold start to 2010. Apparently there’s been a strong downspike in something called the Arctic Oscillation Index and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index is also strongly negative.
This alignment in both atmospheric circulation patterns in a downward direction has led some forecasters in North America to predict a bitterly cold snap for the first half of January for North America and Northern Europe. One AccuWeather senior meteorologist called Joe Bastardi is even forecasting
“cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 [degrees] north world wide in over 25 years.”
Some other forecasters agree. But not the Met Office here in Britain, which is apparently sticking to its forecast of a relatively mild winter (I think … it’s not really clear from its website), despite recent evidence (ie from the mid-December onwards) to the contrary. Indeed, from Scotland to the Great Lakes in North America the December weather has been fiercer than it has been for quite some time.”
Couple of other questions, what will this do to our energy bills and how is the national grid holding up right now? Could this be yet another boomerang that will come back and hit Brown and his government squarely in the behind at just the wrong time with a GE looming?
117. Rod
Jack Straw did announce a plan to add an amendment to the constitutional reform bill legislating for a 2011 referendum, but the Guardian says it would apply to a Labour government (only?), and of course the Lords would probably vote it down.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/01/electoral-system-reform-referendum-plan
120 That or firmly said at the start no early election in 2007. It wasn’t the not calling it that hit him but the looking as if he was going to and then not in the public eyes.
O/T satire is not dead
The Online Left Thinks 2010 Will Be Their Year
http://order-order.com/2009/12/31/the-online-left-thinks-2010-will-be-their-year/
122 Sean Fear Something that seems to exemplify the slow ritual suicide of the Labour Party in Wales. A local group tried in Llanelli arranging a debate smong the PPC’s. Plaid naturally were up for it. Labour could not muster either AM or MP but rather than no show they did apparently eventually rustle up someone. Bizarrely though it was a former PPC who became well known for an article suggesting how much he hated Welsh speakers. That probably did not go down well in that seat.
123 - don’t need any Schadenfreude for that weather report. It snowed yesterday in Dahlonega, in the North Georgia mountains, some 65 miles north of Atlanta.
Dahlonega is where the phrase “There’s gold in them thar hills” originated, to try to persuade the gold miners there not to leave for California. There are still 2 working gold mines there.
53
Is Ken Wasabi real? This single post is mnore offensive than anything Christina D has been subjected to - a mindless smear not just against a Party but an entire country!
Now,I whine about this unionist bigotry for the next few days or should I get on with posting my point of view?
As it happens I used to post on the Scotsman site until it was rendered ridiculous by a couple of nasty anti-SNP posters who are incapable of holding a debate. I have no idea if one of them was really Ken under an assumed name!
124. How can it be “law” if it only applies to a Labour government? It’s either law or it isn’t.
Why would the Lords necessarily vote it down? They were prepared not to vote down actual legislation for AV in 1931…
127 IIRC, Llanelli has rather a lot of Welsh speakers.
I think that parties that are in decline behave very irrationally, and Welsh Labour are doing precisely that.
Gordon is a truly strange character. It seems that becoming PM, for him, was the new millenium, the year zero, after which nothing much would really matter - He would retire on his 100th birthday to the applause of a grateful nation, or some such. Hence the total lack of the vision thing when he actually became PM.
This was interesting , from soon after he became PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1554255/Will-it-be-Grumpy-Gordon-or-Father-Brown.html
Some prophetic quotes
“The Brownites are an extreme version of New Labour. They think they have to fight to win, it’s politics as a permanent campaign. It’s deep in Gordon’s psyche, I’d be surprised if he changed.”
And some from the Sion Simon school of political forecasting
“This is the first time Gordon’s been lucky, just as he takes centre stage David Cameron and his Tory party implodes.”
Which is from David Blunkett.
Betting.
Big Rumour on Alan Pardew for the Bolton job.
Put in at 2/1 by one bookie.
Take 10’s on Betfair.
Massive Cock up:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/hi/newsbeat/newsid_7961000/7961224.stm
132 Simon Heffer was quite an admirer of Gordon Brown in those days.
130. “Why would the Lords necessarily vote it down? “
They might not, but I am not convinced they would wave this through.
I don’t understand the Labour only reference; just pointing out that’s what the article says.
135. Sean Fear December 31st, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Janet Daly too!
A pair of silly billies!
133 - Scrub that.
Oddschecker mistake it seems
117. Rod there’s this but I thought there was something more recent confirming that Brown was not interested in pushing such legislation through before the election:
The Bill, which would scrap the remaining hereditary peers and strengthen the role of Parliament, was included in the Government’s draft programme published in June.
In recent weeks Government sources have suggested that it would be extended to include a pledge to hold a referendum on the issue of electoral reform.
But last night it became clear that the measure will be kicked into the long grass.
Although the Bill will be published in draft form there will be no commitment to push it through ahead of the election.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1228114/Queens-Speech-scrapped-year-waste-everyones-time-claims-Clegg.html
Of course, Labour were more optimistic 2 years ago.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
132. Some of those quotes are amazingly prescient. Two things in that piece.
1. “His whole life has been based on fighting everyone and everybody, now suddenly he has to stand for something.” He never pulled that off. He seems to have opted for class war.
2. “His emails are written in angry capital letters and are full of spelling mistakes as he bashes the keyboard with two nail-bitten fingers.”
I wonder if any have survived? Biographies?
135/137 the internet can be utterly bubble-burstingly delicious.
138. It a bit like the issue of Decimalisation. The legislation was passed and the date set by the Labour government 1966-70.
By 1971 Labour was out of office, but D-Day still went ahead.
I thought Labour were angling to do the same with the AV referendum?
142 Rod, they can’t even get it past their own party so when you say ‘Labour’, what are you on about?
Well, it’s coming up to lunchtime on the eastern seaboard of the US, and there are 3 football games on TV begging my attention.
Happy New Year to all PBers everywhere!!!!!
142 Were the Tories opposed to decimalisation though. Rather easier to move against something you disagree with.
In reality, assuming a May election Labour have between now and Easter to get any legislation through and onto the Statute book. For a May election, with Parliament generally needing two weeks to close urgent legislation before it ceases to exist, the announcement would come before Easter.
The Lords has a majority of Labour, Lib Dem and cross benchers so would probably pass any Act, dependent on what else is in it, but there is precious little time. Jack Straw isn’t a fan and he has delayed and delayed on the Constitutional Reform Bill almost as if he didn’t want it to happen.
143. I think you exaggerate…
Very quickly popping back on to wish all and sundry on pb.com a Happy New Year.
147 lol. Right back at you mate
15 & 31.
Some of that post you’re quoting I wish I’d been around to lambaste. States flip at the state level before federally? Really? Has this sage person comparing NJ and WV ever looked at the composition of WV’s legislature or its state-level offices? (All Democrats, by the way, and supermajorities for the Democrats in the legislature.) When partisan shifts happen, they happen first at the federal level and then “trickle down” to the state level.
Anyway. New Jersey is Democratic because of its ethnic diversity. I’m not just talking about blacks (15%), Hispanics (15%) and Asians (8%), although those percentages are all above the national average and contribute. New Jersey is also home to the second-highest concentration of Jews in the country (strongly Democratic in the US although Conservative in the UK) as well as one of the higher non-Hispanic Catholic populations in the country, another Democratic-leaning constituency. (Catholics vs non-Catholics is only a small divide, but white Catholics vs white non-Catholics, white Catholics are much more Democratic.)
You’re overestimating the degree to which NJ is wealthy suburbia (and the “hick” areas have too small a population to matter, even in close races; eliminate Sussex and Warren Counties and Christie wins by a handful of votes). Large swathes of the state are not particularly wealthy at all, although they are suburban: south Bergen, all of Middlesex, northeast Monmouth, western Burlington, northern Gloucester, outer Mercer, eastern Somerset. The wealthy areas are quite concentrated in just a few parts of the state (northern Bergen and Passaic, western Somerset, western Essex, all of Morris) and definitely not demographically dominant.
Besides, all of this talk of “wealth” shouldn’t surprise you. Connecticut and Maryland are about as wealthy or wealthier than NJ and are both also more Democratic.
Also, American politics is essentially about population density in a lot of ways: The Democratic Party represents the interests of those living in high densities, while the Republican Party represents the interests of those living in low densities. It is unsurprising, then, that the state with (by far!) the highest population density in the country would be a Democratic stronghold.
Anyway, I find it amusing that people consider the election of an opposite party governor (narrowly, especially) to be indicative of some sort of shift. I mean, did Wyoming shift radically towards the Democrats in 2004?
145 decimalisation.. for the UK, the biggest con in history, every penny price rise was 2.4 times what it would have been..
OT
The Conservative Party offered to pay £1m to produce something that can “harness the wisdom” of voters. I thought that was called a “ballot box”, but still, I’m not going to turn down money like that. Here you go, Dave! Cheque or postal order’s fine.
http://wisdomofcameron.com/
hattip reddit
Rubber-stamp tory accused of lying.
tory toadies –> outrage
Employee bullied into a long-term stress-related depression.
tory toadies –> silence
117. Rod C.
This Times article suggests the ‘electoral reform’ clause is just a ploy to create dividing lines.
So the whole Bill is unlikely to become law and deals will have to be struck in the wash-up, the few days between the announcement of an election and dissolution. The Tories, who will have a veto then, have warned that not much may survive.
This is where it all gets very political. The electoral reform clauses stand no chance of becoming law. They are meant simply to create dividing lines with the Tories and as a signal to the Liberal Democrats if there is a hung parliament.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article6957951.ece
132.Thanks for linking that article Steve.
“Peter Hennessy, professor of contemporary history at Queen Mary, University of London, is unconvinced that any transformation will be permanent. “The cathartic resolution of finally getting the top job may produce character change but that will only hold in relatively tranquil times. When storms hit he will revert to what his temperament is.”
“Tony has always said that Gordon’s tactics have become his strategy: he’s spent so long being to the Left of government to win internal support that he’s forgotten that that’s a hopeless way of winning the country,” says a No 10 aide. “But the closer to Downing Street he gets, the more like Tony he becomes. The person seeking out betrayal will himself betray all his supporters. There’s nothing else he can do.”"
Very perceptive comments.
145. Obviously not, but it was very controversial at the time. It was felt to be too costly and would encourage inflation. Perhaps Labour even chose the date so the Tories would “cop it”…
I’m getting dirty looks for still being ‘on the computer’,
so Happy New Year to all fellow pb.c-ers!
This is laughable from the BBC/Labour party are laughable on this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/31/heseltine-thatcher-westland-cabinet-meeting
Why on earth should these meetings minutes be realesed early other than in the Labour/BBC perverted mind they “Will damage” the Tories. In fact i dont think they would damage the Tories at all - At least ministes resigned on principle then. I can think of only one Labour Minister to resign on a matter of principle and that is Robin Cook. The rest of the Labour ministers seemed to be like Pigs nesting in shit!
142. Rod C
They had 5 years to plan decimilisation (waste of time that was too). They have 5 months to implement this and this Government couldn’t plan/implement its way out of a paper bag.
Gabble - comprehensively lost this argument on a previous thread.
Yes. Happy
Yes. Happy New Year to PB (even lefties)
159. John Denham went over Iraq as well. So did someone else (I don’t count Clare Short) but I can’t remember who it was offhand.
Can someone reboot Gabble his disc is sticking again?
None of my business but gut feeling GlendaNat is a regular poster using a different name.
161. SallyC
It’s not an ‘argument’, it’s an £800,000 fact.
158 Me too.
Happy New Year.
164. David Herdson December 31st, 2009 at 6:14 pm
I forgot about Denham, never really rated him anyway personally.
164.David, wasn’t it Robin Cook?
166.MrJones, I thought that last night too.
32 - who can forget that picture of Brown grinning as Blair is shafted.
Nasty piece of work.
159.Oops, Martin, missed your post.
“List of Labour resignations [over Iraq]”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/2860583.stm
161 - If you mean the thread where you embarrassed yourself defending the low life Coulson, purveyor of Osborne stories and bullier of the mentally ill, then I think you came off as having double standards.
Happy New Year to one and all on PB.com, I might be around a bit longer tonight than I planned to be.
OY!
You can’t just say that,then bugger off to get thissen drunk.
By heck.
Ruined my night you have.
172, nasty is bad enough, but he’s incompetent. Personally I have no problems with a ruthless tyrant if he’s like FU or Agathocles of Syracuse, or Septimius Severus. The problem is that Brown is more like Antonius Caracalla[sp]. He was emperor of Rome, son of Severus, but was cruel and vicious and kept threatening his own bodyguard, killing a close member of his family. Unsurprisingly the bodyguard killed him. Somewhat like Caligula, but not as mad.
Have a great New Year celebration everyone and see you in 2010.
Or maybe not.
57 “57.I would like to know what Gordon Brown had on Tony Blair that forced him to resign.”
There’s half a dozen or so possible things tucked away in corners of google.
168 Er no, it isn’t.
It’s an argument and you were trounced. If I could be bothered to link everything, I would. But I am sure they will be plenty of other occasions…..
176 - Happy Hogmanay, and lets all be thankful Alistair Darling was in charge when the Western banking system collapsed rather than the deer in the headlights Osborne.
SallyC
Have you apologised to Jonathan yet?
ah poor ex-pat didums
164. It was Lord Hunt of Kings Heath.
And with that, I’m signing off for 2009.
183, would that be the same Osborne who advocated recapitalisation before the government did it, and the same Darling who procrastinated for six months before nationalising Northern Rock and who is constantly hamstrung by his deranged boss and predecessor?
161 In the field of double standards, you’re assessment is of academic interest, at best.
178. I see Brown as more like Elagabalus, once of this parish
181 can you recommend some google search key words?
188 - Ha Ha. Nearly clever.
You can’t beat a bit of bully or an Osborne story.
184. I have corrected my statements to reflect that he did indeed condemn McBride at some dim and distant point in the past but has failed to do so on many occasions since.
I have also learnt another valuable lesson from the new Labour spin/smear play book.
192. SallyC
So, did you apologise to Jonathan.
He’s probably above that sort of thing but I’m not.
192, spinning and smearing, sounds like a Viennese waltz in a cesspit.
191. Fortunately for us, Osborne is a much clever man than me, you or Gabble.
Now I am off to live my life for a while.
The behaviour of Labour before the General Election is telling.
In 1997 the Conservatives accepted they would lose. Its all part of the ebb and flow of politics.
Labour on the other hand are behaving like desperate communists in a civil war. It is almost as if they believe that if they lose, it is the end for them.
I can see it in one of 2 ways:
1) They realise that politically they are finished - for ever
2) They fear consequences of what happens when we get to see what they have been up to.
196, I do hope that the minutes of the Iraq war discussion in Cabinet don’t accidentally get shredded.
I wonder if the mentally unstable bully who helped force through an illegal war with lies and deceit would be a character to which Gabble and tim would be sympathetic.
A character who helped drive a government servant to suicide, perhaps a better fit?
What about someone who fitted both bills? Best of all perhaps. A saviour? A paladin of the left?
Now all we have to do is find the person to embody these Labour values.
Oh, wait…… I have an idea.
196
“Labour on the other hand are behaving like desperate communists in a civil war. It is almost as if they believe that if they lose, it is the end for them”.
There is a fair chance that it is. 2014/15 is likely to see the LD’s outperforming Labour, particulary when the true extent of the financial mismanagement by Brown is laid bare for all to see.
190 feels a bit unseasonal at the mo
197 - You mean like Blair’s expenses.
That man is protected by forces of Dark, I’m sure of it.
Yes. Happy New Year to PB (although not to lefties)
It is not for me to forgive the lefties for what they have done to other people.
I wish, that in 2010, Lefties shall be humiliated in the Polls, surcharged and pursued with the full weight of the law.
202, hehe, I hope the 2010 GE will be for Labour like Carrhae was for Crassus.
193. ‘He’s probably above that sort of thing but I’m not.’
Indeed, what you are ‘above’ might well be a subject long on time, short on subject matter.
Night all.
*** for stjohn and anyone else who cares ***
2/1 that Bercow will not be speaker 1/1/11.
happy to take sensible four figure bets
thx
199 - Remember MTF that had the Tories won a 2007 election they were pledged to stick to Browns spending plans that you consider reckless.
How Osborne and Cameron would have behaved in the banking crisis is up for grabs, but watching Osborne trying to handle the Yacht business I suspect we may have had a wee shaky George.
154 Gabbot:
Part of one of your problems is your new labour understanding of the concept of an apology: that is, that it is essentially a public utterance addressed to a widely defined group of people, all of them long dead, to whom neither the apologist nor anyone else now living could have done any harm whatever without access to a fully functional time machine. Apologies in the real world are in fact usually private matters and I am confident that if Mr Coulson felt on reflection that he had been weally weally howwid to poor Mr Thingummy, he will have written him a private letter to say how weally weally sowwy he is.
And, for the last time, I am a tory lickspittle and I am on the record as saying that I am profoundly disgusted at the position Mr Coulson currently has in the Tory party. If he isn’t ennobled or safe-seated and promoted to DWP or the Home Office, there is a serious possibility I will vote LD at the election.
Maggie TF said “There is a fair chance that it is. 2014/15 is likely to see the LD’s outperforming Labour,”
It is possible and I hope the LibDems will replace Labour. I dont think wishy washy Liberalism is any less dangerous than Socialism - but I do believe Labour has lost the right to participate. It is time for another party to be given the chance.
In the end, those who corrupted Labour will indeed corrupt the LibDems. It is a never ending story.
Before I fall asleep - Happy New Year!
Platox
209 - Platox? Is that like Botox?
200. It does. Which is why I am off. I shouldn’t bite but I did am not helping the mood.
Best wishes for the New Year.
OT EU CAP reform
New York Times reckons CAP is up for reform.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/30/business/global/30subsidy.html
The president of France, Jacques Chirac, and the chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schröder, joined forces in secret to protect the program against cuts until 2013, outmaneuvering Tony Blair
Unlikely to kick off in time for Bercow vs Farrage though.
FPT: at post 259 I replied to Batch File’s question and also idly asked where he got his name from. At 334 he replied about his name. At 357, he pawed the ground impatiently and asked when I was going to answer his question. I think your file needs a “read the whole post” subroutine.
Sad anecdote: was shopping today in a supermarket in central Nottingham, not in the constituency, when I got a text message about a sick relative. I wrote a quick reply, probably looking a bit concerned, and while I was doing it someone I’ve never met came up and said, “Worried about your expenses, are you?” and laughed heartily. I asked politely if he was a constituent - he said “Nah!” and trotted off.
It’s that sort of fish-bowl experience that does put people off being an MP. In the constituency it’s more usual to get someone coming up to say something friendly, but to be honest when I’m shopping for carrots or whatever I’d sometimes rather just get the carrots…
207 - I doubt Daves employment lawyers will have Coulson in a state funded job.
I’ll offer you £50 at evens that he isn’t in a Tory admin in any capacity.
156- A Labour supporting relative of mine summed up one of Brown’s personalities most succintly the other day “he’s a crafty bugger.”
175- Tim accusing someone of double standards
Anyway in the bullying stakes we all know that Brown is the worst at that, as he is so many other things!
Anyway, happy new year to all the people on here! And to any journos who read this too!
208, disagree with you both. Labour won’t poll less than the Lib Dems in the election after 2010. Clegg’s ineffective. Labour will benefit from the tribal vote still backing them and any anti-Tory votes mostly going their way.
202. ken wasabi December 31st, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Not all the lefties are bad either. It seems to be the Brown Clique that are particularly bad. Some of what was seen as the more Blairite side of things do seem to show some humilaty, position themseleves for accepting they are wrong i.e. Class War.
What these idiots at the top of the Labour party do not realise is folk like me who have suffered massively under Labour - I have lower living standards than in 1997 are going to hunt these people down relentlessly. People like Brown, Balls and the rest of that vile disgusting cligue are going to find themseleves destroyed - No redemption and no forgiveness.
Hands up all those who think that New Years Eve is a load of b*ll*cks.
I for one take great delight in waiting until 2am on the 1st, when everywhere is quietening down, all the pubs and clubs are closing, and realise that i have saved myself £50 and don’t have the beginnings of a hangover.
Yipee.
Us Les Miserables rule OK.
206
Just as a matter of interest, what odds are you offering that GO wont be Chancellor of the Exchequer if the Conservatives get an overall majority in the forthcoming election? and by comparison, what are the bookies offering?
8. I’d expect Mark Hughes to be given first shout
215 Bob
“And to any journos who read this too!” That would really stretch my charitable nature!
Suggesting a happy new year to bankers would certainly push them to breaking point.
210 I was persuaded to try it once [a friend was having treatment for acute acne scars and wanted sympathy] and never again - I’m a very cheerful looking type and it made me look grumpy for several months instead.
£300 I’m glad to never replicate.
214 - Nor should he be, tim.
A wholesale clear out of the massed ranks of political appointments into the civil service should be one of the first acts of an incoming Conservative government.
The level of waste of taxpayer money on the salaries of barely competent advisors, hacks and scribblers - not to mention blog-bots - paid to defend the Labour party’s ineptitude in government since 1997 is a disgrace.
If you’re lucky,Labour might keep you on the payroll with Party funds but, then again, they don’t have much of those right now.
213. Nick Palmer MP December 31st, 2009 at 6:41 pm
Sorry to hear about your relative, Nick, and I sympathize about the goldfish bowl. To be honest I wouldn’t want to be an MP myself, largely for that reason (the fact that I’d get about 8 votes in total being nothing to do with it, you understand).
The problem is, though, that you and your colleagues had complete control over your own expenses system, and, well, it was remarkably generous.
I hope the hysteria over the subject will not be renewed though. Ultimately we all shoot ourselves in the foot if we obsess over that and ignore the other qualities an MP has (or doesn’t have).
Apart from perhaps his wife and family,Gordon Brown does not garner a single personal vote, virtually everyone who votes Labour on May 6th will be voting for the party not him, he has no charisma or personal charm whatsoever.
Mandelson knew that when he manoeuvred Blair into the job as leader after Smith died. If Gordon had taken the job then, he would have won the 1997 election, but not by as big a margin, he would have won the 2001 or 2002 election too with a much reduced majority, but Labour would be out of office by now and Tony would never have become PM.
The result of Mandy’s maneuverings was the Granita pact in which Brown agreed to stand aside and take the chancellorship and at a date in the future, Blair would resign gifting Brown the top job.
Blair recognised that Brown was not up to the job and he tried to hang on as long as possible but he was bound by the pact and in the end, he had to go.
Of course none of their colleagues was bound by the pact, but such was the power base of office seekers and sycophants that Brown had gathered around him that no challenger dared to come forward.
Labour has not had the courage to challenge Brown either in 2007 or crucially in May this year and as a result, they are now doomed.
Now they are like the officers on the deck of the Titanic, they’ve sighted the iceberg, they’ve thrown the engines into reverse and pulled the wheel hard to port but they know that it’s too late to avoid it.
Like captain Smith, Brown will end up going down with his ship.
222 - One of my friends had a similar experience, you have my sympathy
*** BETTING POST ***
Jordan to win a seat at the UK General Election - 4 Jan 10 ( 2010 Specials )
Selection Odds
Yes 100/1
217 Martin said “Not all the lefties are bad either.
True. They are either bad, mentally ill, dim or naieve.
Lefties can even have a productive life - as long a they stay out of other people’s business.
227 - She did so well in 2001.
208.I don’t think that the Libdems will outperform Labour, their big chance was back in 2005, they might well of been on the cusp of something at that moment. But they chose to naval gaze while picking the wrong leaders. Huhne aggressively taking on Brown’s Labour party crown was their best bet, but they have decided to try and man the barricades against the auld enemy instead.
211.SallyC, have a great nite.
161 - If you mean the thread where you embarrassed yourself defending the low life Coulson, purveyor of Osborne stories and bullier of the mentally ill, then I think you came off as having double standards.
by tim December 31st, 2009 at 6:19
How quickly you forget dolly Draper and Red Flag. Mind you that dosen’t shore up your point does it?
219 - I’m not offering odds on that precisely because the bookies are.
You’re never going to understand this politics and betting lark are you?
I’ll offer you odds on Grayling being dumped, because the bookies aren’t
225. ROBBIE BOX December 31st, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Was the Granita Pact not a great blunder on Blair’s part? Wouldn’t he have trounced Brown if they’d both stood and wasn’t he far enough ahead that he didn’t really need to worry about splitting the modernising vote?
Then again, one of Blair’s strengths was his lack of complacency regarding elections (indeed, he made a joke about it on election night in 1997, iirc).
At all events, the entire Granita story has been greatly to Brown’s benefit. It’s allowed him to pose as the man who graciously stood asise for Blair, rather than the man who was just not as good.
232. Batch File December 31st, 2009 at 7:00 pm
Wasn’t it a rag rather than a flag?
Pedantic distinction I suppose. Piece of cloth of some kind.
OUCH Jack Straw’s lazy coppr intv has just been replayed on R5
Happy new year to all (esp. ChristinaD).
No, not the bots, but then it may not be New Year’s Eve on their planet.
lol
Has SallyC done another ‘victory’ flounce?
Anyway, Happy New Year to all, even the time-serving tory trolls.
*** BETTING POST ***
Trawling through the bookies festive specials a couple have Robbie Williams to become X-Factor judge at 2/1. I guess there is a rumour backing this up, but if those prices are right, the 5/1 available from Skybet looks like value.
I’m on.
NPMP
I am happy to stand corrected.
Sub routine now duly installed. I’m afraid a few zeros were mislaid. (Just like the previous chancellor then except he mislaid a lot more of them)
That dismal day, 27 June 2007, was strange in many ways. There was the lingering media fixation on Tony and Cherie, partly shown by the excessive reaction to Cherie’s throwaway line that she wouldn’t miss the press. Gordon and Sarah took centre stage with extraordinary gaucheness. They didn’t know where to stand for the cameras outside No.10 and then Gordon made that stunningly anti-climactic stilted speech. It set the tone for the new dreary regime underlined by the gray skies and drizzly weather. Despite that the press reported the speech as if it was remarkable, launching the unreal fawning that lasted until the bottled election. They quoted (and misquoted) that banal school motto as if it was significant.
I know many Labour people believe the media have given Brown a hard time, but even after the bottled election they have remained absurdly protective of him. It’s as if many of them still think he might magically transform into the politician of stature they believed him to be. Whatever happens next year (and I wouldn’t like to predict) Brown will remain the most hyped and inept PM in recent British history.
241.I took the dog off out for a long walk that day, I kept hoping that Blair or the Labour party would come to its senses in the nick of time, or the Queen had nipped out and missed Brown’s knock at the door. They didn’t, and we are where we are now.
235 correct.
Boy this champers is strong must go and celebrate instead of sitting on here I suppose.
Happy New Year who ever you follow!!!!!
Previous thread, jsfl So the start of your decade and the millenium was 2001 then?
Funny I don’t remember the celebrations for the end of the century being at the end of 2000? So I’ll go with the majority on this then thanks.
Of course it started in 2001. Don’t you understand mathematics?
Your memory is obviously at fault. As a historical fact, it is an uncontested and incontrovertible fact that everybody celebrated the start of the new millennium on 1st January 2001, and the end of the old millennium on 31st December 2000. It may be the case that a tiny minority of deranged and insane maniacs with no brains, who were frantically determined to destroy the whole of civilization, pretended to celebtrate the new millenniumn at the beginning of 2000, but the point is that they did so falsely and incorrectly. If you want to be in league with these frenzied destroyers of logic, then don’t mingle with us normal decent people here on PB.
—————————
Off Topic, those of you who enjoy getting in a frenzy of apoplexy about “Political Correctness Gone Mad” at random intervals might like a play on Radio 4 I discovered yesterday:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00pg5cx/b00pg52m/Afternoon_Play_What_Did_I_Say/
220. Is that your own suggestion or sources Roger?
My Predictions for 2010
I predict a Conservative majority of between 0 and 50.
I predict that the national percentages will be approximately Con 38% Lab 31%.
I predict that Plaid Cymru will win 4 seats but not Ceredigion.
I predict that the SNP will only gain about 2 or 3 extra seats.
I predict that Jim Murphy will hold East Renfrew by about 3,000 votes.
I predict that George Galloway and Salma Yaqoob will get about 20% in Respect’s target seats.
I predict that Nick Griffin will come third in Barking with about 22% of the votes.
I predict that Caroline Lucas will come third in Brighton Pavilion, but that there will be fewer than 2,000 votes separating the top three candidates.
I predict that Independent candidates will hold Blaenau Gwent and Down North but not Wyre Forest.
I predict that Andrew Pelling will not be a candidate in Croydon Central.
I predict that in Buckingham, John Bercow will get at least 2.5 times as many votes as Nigel Farage.
228: “217 Martin said “Not all the lefties are bad either.
True. They are either bad, mentally ill, dim or naieve.”
On the other hand, we can spell.
246 - Shouldn’t that be a majority between 1 and 50.
A 0 Majority is a bit like 0% per cent growth isn’t it?
246 - John do you think that AP will stand as a council candidate in Croydon?
A most interesting altercation at the beginning of the thread showing the two characteristics that I most associate with the Scots. Their self righteousness and their ability to take umbridge.
The Scottish branch of my family have been keeping various firms of lawyers in business for years. I’m off to Edinburgh and Aberdeen early in the new year. Always interesting!
Just seen the latest ConHom post on Bercow’s seat, and I am ever more convinced he will hang on. Sounds like CCHQ are really rowing in behind him.
Happy New Year everyone. I’m just a lurker - I wouldn’t have the time (nor, no doubt, the nous!)to be as knowledgeable as many of you. It’s interesting and informative reading. Thank you.
233
tim, thats complete and utter bullsh*t. You have been pulled up on this site many times for offering odds that are worse than the bookies are offering. Yet you claim that as your reasoning..
Rentoul’s piece is a classic example of being wise after the event, and probably isn’t particularly wise even then.
When Gordon Brown looks back over his career, which will happen sooner rather than later, there will be a trail of “ifs”. He will wonder what would have happened if he had got the leadership earlier. Or if he had faced a leadership election rather than coronation. Or if he had gone to the country in 2007, or perhaps even in 2009. Or what would have happened but for the financial meltdown (or if it had happened later or in a more moderate form).
Any or all of those things might have led to his Premiership being remembered very differently. But it’s all parlour games in the end. The point is his party’s fate wasn’t sealed when he became leader but in a series of events both since and before.
Anyway, Happy New Year to one and all.
DingDang, you’re not alone, I entirely share your Bah Humbugging attitude to New Year’s Eve.
Any occasion that requires forced hilarity, compulsory spontaneity, and deeply contrived gladness, sucks Pazuzu’s Pizzle, as far as I am concerned. I find stag nights (weekends?!!) fairly loathsome for the same reason.
My best ever New Year’s Eve was spent doing some excellent heroin with one very good friend in our lovely (but rented) Georgian house in Islington - after a week of tedious Christmas boozing.
The year’s accumulated hangovers dissolved in a delicious haze of opiates.
Happy New Year to all pb-ers, and may all your heroin be Number 4.
242. Christina … or the Queen had nipped out and missed Brown’s knock at the door. If only!
250.Well pack your thermals and a good woolie hat, you are going to need them. And don’t worry about the champagne cluttering up the fridge, just stick it outside and it will be nicely chilled.
247 So perhaps someone will find a use for you when you are kicked out of parliament.
246 - All pretty accurate I’d guess.
Anyway I’m off to a party.
Happy New Year everyone.
Especially the herd (of cash cows)
252.Dack, too late now, you have finally posted and you will be hooked.
Look forward to seeing you post again, just imagine that you have got that first date out of the way and enjoy it.
Let’s say, Tony Blair has served a full fourth term and Labour had a leadership election about now
I) What would be the state of the polls now
II) Would Brown now win a leadership election
III) If Brown did win it, what would that do to the polls
On topic, John Rentoul isn’t sure…
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/236346.html
249. Probably not.
261
I) What would be the state of the polls now - Labour 10-15%
II) Would Brown now win a leadership election - Yes
III) If Brown did win it, what would that do to the polls - Bounce to 25%
250 Roger
“umbridge”
Now I understand (thanks NPMP) why many Scots are “lefties”. We can spell too!
Perhaps you were thinking of Professor Dolores Jane Umbridge, who was Senior Under-Secretary to Minister for Magic, Cornelius Fudge?
251. CCHQ might want to consider whether Bercow winning, then being kicked out by Tory MPs (and defecting?) would be worse than Bercow losing. It’s not an easy calculation.
238 Gabble: Happy New Year to you too.
In the words of the old Scottish toast: Slàinte Mhath, and may your haemorrhoids shrink without surgery, and your benefits always rise by more than the CPI.
265 – Oldnat, you closet Harry Potter you.
JohnLoony:
it is an uncontested and incontrovertible fact that everybody celebrated the start of the new millennium on 1st January 2001
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/587189.stm
Note the date 02/01/2000
Perhaps you should tell the BBC and the then members of the Labour Government although I agree they could represent:
a tiny minority of deranged and insane maniacs with no brains
Happy New year to you to!
265 - Everybody get your wands out, and repeat after me
“Labour out, expelliarmus”
265. Umbrage! I took the precaution of checking and then got distracted. Apologies.
Christina. Thanks for the warning!
266 Runnymede
I would think/hope that if Bercow is defeated in a vote for speaker he would have to leave the Commons. If he did not I would think he would get a lot of flack and accepting him as a member might do Labour more harm than good.
266.RM, anything other than fully backing Bercow would be politically toxic for the party and return to the bad old days of our earlier years in opposition. There is no room for this kind of stupid internal bickering.
“Love Tony Blair or loathe him, only one choice for politician of the decade”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/31/tony-blair-politician-of-decade
Having reviewed threads in the past and seen Gabble come on line to make some quip directed about me after I’ve gone [and some time after I have quite clearly announced my intention to depart - several times - sometimes before he has spoken to me] I thought I’d take a little peep before I leave the house.
And low and behold…
I am unfamiliar with the term a ‘victory flounce’. It can’t be what he did on the night TSE gave him a lecture in employment law and when Mike upbraided him for making suggestions of a potentially misleading nature about Coulson, unless the word ‘victory’ is applied ironically.
Since he’s is an authority on apologies, I assume he’s given Mike a suitably fullsome one.
Now I must go before my other half flouces off without me although I agree with the New Year humbug [though not the new year heroine] - it’s usually a let down.
Goodnight to all.
HPY to you Chris.
And wecome to Aveit10 in the morning.
261. The Screaming Eagles December 31st, 2009 at 7:28 pm
“Let’s say, Tony Blair has served a full fourth term”
fourth -> third?
I’d like to put that counterfactual in context and assume that it means:
* the Labour Party had stayed at least somewhat united behind Blair
* Blair had cut Brown down to size at an earlier date (probably by moving him to the Home Office or Foreign Office after the 2001 election) so that Brown had not been allowed to buffalo his rivals into submission
If you allow those assumptions then I would say:
I) Labour ~30%
II) He’d be a candidate but not a shoo-in
III) Brief bounce then a flop at the GE. At all times, Brown was, is and would be a bad choice.
Blair’s biggest problem, I believe, was not Iraq but the perception that he’d lost control of his party. If he’d stayed in control and if the more able Blairite ministers had stayed with him, Labour would be in a far stronger position now.
Of course, this would require Blair to have been a different person.
270 TSE
I would have thought you might have preferred “erecto” as a good spell.
276 - Yes, full third term, my mistake
277 - It’ll be April at the earliest, before I get to say that spell
275. SallyC
So, you haven’t apologised because you’re too embarrassed.
Never mind, you can just pretend you haven’t read this, like you did on the night.
Happy New Year.
Bit miserable working on NYE as well as Xmas Day and Boxing Day. But I guess it’s cheap!
I am considering starting a new blog tomorrow based on the fact I tend to have an hour or two each working evening where this place gets quiet so I could write an article.
Or I might just fire things on here. More likely to get read
274. Gabble December 31st, 2009 at 7:46 pm
Beyond dispute. Yet his party wanted rid of him.
Quos deus vult perdere prius dementat.
280.Gabble, give it a rest. SallyC is off out to enjoy New Year, now go have something nice and bubbly and chill out.
Can i wish all of you, except Gabble, a Very Happy New Year.
Gabble, I wish you a moderate New Year
281 Memoirs of a sub would be fascinating
For those interested in the Bercow/ Buckingham debate:
John Bercow facing Tory backbench challenge
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/31/john-bercow
284. TSE did you mean a moderated New Year by any chance?
281 - Sounds like one of those 70’s movies with Robin Askwith
Guests arriving soon, so I have to go.
I’ll check back after the bells, when all will be sweetness and light and, Gabble will have transformed into a poster transmitting waves of love and enthusiasm.
284. lol. Thanks, TSE.
ConHom - “ConHome will resume sometime on the morning of New Year’s Day but tune in to ToryDiary after midnight for a preview of the Tories’ advertising blitz. In the meantime, Happy New Year!”
287 - Nope, according to Gabble, the longest and deepest recession since records began, is moderate
Hands up if you’re bored of the news channels showing fireworks.
\o/
NYE looks the same in every country. I don’t mind watching it once say in the afternoon from the far east and then our own but I don’t need live pictures every hour!
292 Ah I see well if that’s the case Brown will have nothing at all worth boasting about when he writes his memoirs then!
And with that it’s time for me to depart as well. So once again Happy New Year! everyone
293. *raises hand*
It’s not as though the New Year is actually news is it? If it didn’t happen, that would be news.
We’ve got a depressing picture of Tesco’s displaying easter eggs in tomorrow’s paper.
I mean, could they not wait until tomorrow at least?
Er, hang, on a minute. Much as I can sympathise with ChristinaD in her 1 on 1 dispute with Mr Glesganat’s attacks has no-one noticed that there is a poster who has called all SNP-supporting posters “thugs”?
Is that not grounds for an apology and similar sympathies?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/31/is-john-rentoul-right-about-june-27th-2007/#comment-1365220
I’m sure ChristinaD will join me in condemning Ken Wasabi’s abusive remarks against the likes of James Kelly, oldnat etc
297.JimM, don’t you think I have had enough crap on here today, I regularly get slagged off by certain SNP posters on here with very honourable exceptions.
Happy New Year all.
Guests haven’t arrived yet so ….
JimM - if I bothered about being slagged off, I wouldn’t bother posting!
276 re Blair (MichaelK)
Blair’s biggest problem, I believe, was not Iraq but the perception that he’d lost control of his party. If he’d stayed in control and if the more able Blairite ministers had stayed with him, Labour would be in a far stronger position now.
Media commentators make a lot of splits but I’m really not sure it matters to voters. Mrs Thatcher is an obvious case in point: often running against her own government yet winning re-election twice.
It may be that unpopular governments split but that is to be expected, and is not the same thing.
As for leading Blairite ministers, was Blair himself really a Blairite? Are the Cameroons not Blairites? That is the complaint from the right, after all.
300.oldnat, the best laugh, I should be sitting down soon surrounded by SNP activists getting a very nice glass of my favourite red poured for me to boot.
Half that association were at my wedding, and I am aunt and godmother to an SNP Chairman’s daughter.
298 Christina D
Don’t say I didn’t warn you!
Repost
I had anticipated that some readers might have a little difficulty with the language, so this is the annotated version from Wikipedia (Scotland) 2039.
PBers never be forgot,
The poet is referring to an obscure group of political geeks
Even Yellow Submar-ine.
One of the above, who gained prominence as POTY in 2009 – like ChristinaD who gained prominence as TOTTY
We’re a’ guid freens here (even Tim),
“a’ guid freens” = “all good friends”. The inclusion of tim is clearly ironic.
for auld lang syne .
“ auld lang syne” – literally “old long since”, but idiomatically “days gone by”. A genetic deficiency (or overindulgence in Scotch) causes those outwith Scotland to pronounce the “s” in syne” as “z”.
CHORUS:
For auld lang syne, PB,
for auld lang syne,
we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
“tak” = “take”. This line indicates a level of ambition seldom achieved by many PBers.
for auld lang syne.
And surely ye’ll haud your idea!
“haud” = “hold” – though many PBers showed a distinct difficulty in remembering what they said in a previous post!
and surely I’ll haud mine !
But the Sassenachs are nae bad fowk,
“ Sassenachs” originally a Gaelic term meaning “Southerners”, but limited to just the English once Lowland Scots discovered the pulling power of the kilt. “nae bad” = “not bad” – the ultimate Scottish compliment, especially when used of their womenfolk. “fowk” = “folk” – the poet is using the term to include the English as part of humanity – as opposed to the few remaining statements about the Scots from a poster called JohnR. That he included the Goddesses Marcia and ChristinaD in his diatribes probably explains why the PB head deity removed his post. It is not clear exactly what “post” meant in those days, but removing it sounds extremely painful.
despite auld lang syne.
CHORUS
We a’ hae read the runes a’ wrang,
“a’ hae” = “all have” : “wrang” = “wrong” .
and paid oot shadsy’s fine;
“shadsy” – a minor deity, whose acolytes divined his wishes by examining Marcia and ChristinaD (see above) in as much detail as they would allow.
But we’ll tak the bookies’ money yet,
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
Christina D, an’ easterross,
are Tories braw an’ fine;
“Tories” – an extinct political grouping. “braw” = “attractive. While this clearly applies to ChristinaD, there is some doubt if it is an appropriate description of easterross.
But Dickson’s crew will see them aff,
“Dickson” – a mythical Scottish character thought to have lifted his kilt to the English army at the Battle of Stirling Bridge, resulting in their defeat and the disappearance of the bridge in subsequent films. “aff” = “off”, and frequently preceded by an explicit sexual expression.
The Union’s deid lang syne.
“Union” – an early (but unworkable) prototype for the current European Federal State : “deid” = used as in “My cat ate the budgie and it’s …”
CHORUS
But there’s a hand, my Tory freen !
“freen” = “friend” : a reference to the actions of the Tories in the Scottish Parliament in acting responsibly (at least some of the time), thus allowing St. Nicola Sturgeon to lead Scotland to Independence.
and gie’s a hand o’ thine !
“ gie’s” = “give us” – see above. The Tories gave and the SNP received.
We’ll sink the ****ing Labour yet,
“****” There is no clear idea of what the poet meant. Readers are free to suggest their own interpretation.
for auld lang syne.
CHORUS
98 - I second that.
303.oldnat, I didn’t see this the first time you posted it! WOW, that’s great, my biggest weakness is a man in a kilt, especially the Douglas. Fitaloon never wears anything else now.
Well, I will raise a glass to you especially at midnight. Have a lovely evening.
I noted this in the papers recently, could the animals detect a massive danger like a big quake coming? Certainly must be a possibility for them all to disappear like that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/6913773/San-Franciscos-sea-lions-disappear-from-pier.html
297 - Perhaps Mr Wasabi is guilty of stereotyping, and assumed all SNP Posters are like this*
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/28/is-this-further-ammunition-for-the-anti-brown-plotters/#comment-1361389
* I know they are not, but this post has allowed me to have some great fun.
305 - I’ll be wearing a kilt, in Scotland, next August, when I’m attending a friends wedding.
Should I be afraid?
108 - Christina, there is a certain type of poster who try to drive others away with smears and personal attacks.
A couple have gone for you in the last year that I recall but that is what happens if you post on a forum with a message they do not want to hear.
Please dont let it bother you, they do not advance their cause but rather harm it.
306 - first the sparrows, then the bees, now the sea-lions.
It is the end of time.
308.TSE, not at all, enjoy it. Honestly, I think that nowadays a lot of men look for an excuse to throw one on, unlike us girls, you don’t have to worry about having a great pair of pins to carry off that skirt.
248. No, because a majority of 1 is not possible with an even number of MPs.
261. I) What would be the state of the polls now
II) Would Brown now win a leadership election
III) If Brown did win it, what would that do to the polls
I. about the same
II. yes
III. a small rise in Labour in the polls briefly, followed by a big drop by about early March to the same level
311 - Thanks. I’m not sure what i should wear under it
311 ChristinaD
But if you don’t have decent hurdies* the kilt can look pretty grim!
For the Sassenachs, * hurdies = buttocks.
308 TSE
When my son was doing his exchange year in the USA, he went to a “Dress to get laid” party. Naturally he wore his kilt.
309.Floater, thanks. The other half reckons that every time they directly go for me rather than the ball I should take it as a compliment that they have lost the argument. But I hate this kind of aggressive and bullying tactics, and I think they know that.
311 TSE
Lace cami-knickers would be considered inappropriate.
313.If its warm enough and not too windy, go commando in true Scottish tradition.
Fitaloon didn’t at our wedding, so guess where they stuck the confetti. 
316 - I’ve been told that these two would be appropriate.
However I have visions of them lifting up my kilt, and taking pictures
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/311Y27FFWBL._AA280_.jpg
or
http://www.annsummersdarlington.com/images/mens/06BTBXAS1019_M.jpg
318.After we left our wedding reception, lets just say that some of our braver kilt wearers took to the floor after several drinks. I believe that there are still carefully guarded pictures stashed away.
319 - I should have had a Scottish Wedding myself. They sound so much more fun.
183 - Darling? in charge? loool
Remind me about his predictions of:
(a) growth
(b( debt
Let us know how much he was out by
As for in charge, didn’t look that way at the pbr did it?
Lets face it, Labour are damaging the country NOW for short term political reasons.
don’t really deserve 5 more years for that alone, let alone the rest of their sins
314.I notice that kilts are becoming more popular as 18/21 prezzies among the boys. That is what is called as seeking a tactical advantage.
187 - thats the one MD
tim really does live in fantasy land along with the dear leader
319.One of my favourite pictures is of my oldest son with his dad and lots of other male relatives and friends in their kilts at a wedding. I know I am his mum, but he really did look totally cute.
2010 THE YEAR OF DOOM FOR THE FOLLOWING:
Gordon Brown
Harriet Harmon
Jack Straw
and the rest of the Labour Cabinet.
John Bercow
Barack Obama
Mahmoud Ahmajinedad
Hamid Karzai
A bit worried about our guest’s lateness. Could be car trouble. Still, it’s not like the Wasabis not to phone.
326 - Welcome to the concept of being fashionably late
325. Can we add, also, every Labour MP on a majority of less then 6,000?
319 I recall in late 60’s when flying back to boarding school my Scots friends would change into their kilts & rest of school uniform in the gents at transit lounge in Frankfurt Airport when we landed there for a stopover in the early hours.
The bravest went commando (keeping a pair of pants in hand luggage to put on during the Heathrow - Scotland connection before) … 16 year old boys, alcohol and high spirits usually resulted in …. well lets say some schools got notes from BOAC.
Hilarious. Moscow pictures show pretty much nothing.
306. You may be right Martin.
How are you by the way? Glad to see that you are participating in PB again.
Oh, and a Happy New Year to you and yours.
317 but a proper 9 yard/16 oz garment will keep you decent in a hurricane.
TSE
You should have been at my cousin’s wedding in the Black Isle. The Gaelic and Scots speaking sides of the family spent much of the evening swapping songs, and I vaguely remember being part of a 32 some reel on my Uncle’s lawn at 4 in the morning.
The groom was English and I remember his Dad saying to me “You people certainly know how to enjoy yourselves.”
I’ve been to the English wedding of another cousin - enough said.
329.Ted, I really believe the increased popularity of the kilt has nothing to do with a rise in Scottish identity. Its a babe magnet, pure and simple. They are not daft.
326 probably picking up JohnR as he didn’t want to chance driving after a dram and he’s got SeanT’s pressie to bring you….
… probably another Thai for Christmas?
329 - Was it a bit like Carry on Up the Khyber Pass?
Friends on their way, so that’s OK.
ChristinaD
Kilts are also far cheaper in the long run. They last forever. I took my 1952 kilt over to the USA for my grandson. I managed to keep wearing it till I was 18 (with extended straps) - but not in a high wind!
333 - Petty nationalism like that is a bit tragic.
I’ve been to great weddings in Ireland and less successful ones. Same with England and Scotland.
On average, I’d say the Irish are the best but to say ‘enough said’ about an English wedding says a hell of a lot about you.
333.I have done a stripe the willow in a student flat in Edinburgh at 2am in the morning. That hallway was big enough for two as well. We all moan at having to do the Scottish dancing in PE at Christmas time at school, but that is why ceilidh’s end up being so much fun in adult life.
338 David Roe
It may well be that the one I attended was untypical (is Essex unusual?), but a ceremony in the morning followed by a long gap, then a meal, and everyone home by 10 o’clock, wasn’t the kind of celebration I am used to.
AARRGHHHH
Front page is about Hogmanay. I’ll be here all night.
334 They were embarrassed to wear them back then (which is why they waited until German booze gave them courage, oh and last stop before being met by a teacher at Heathrow to be gathered together into Watsons, Merchistons, Gordonstonians etc for the train journey north), now they are probably bigwigs in the local Caledonian Club in Sydney, Perth, Hong Kong, Joburg or back home in Scotland in full fig, Nats to the core, getting the drinks in.
340 - Who the hell has a wedding in the morning?
I’d say that was unusual…
343 David Roe
Why do the English call the meal a “breakfast” then?
I sense that some pbers are becoming “tired and emotional” as they used to say about George Brown in his heyday . . .
Christina, surely you were the kind of little girl who used to scream bloody murder when the boys pulled your pigtails? Which is why they loved to do it?
Don’t let ‘em get yer goat!
That said, you are surely no liar. And if anyone said it to me ugly face, I’d knock their dickkk in the dirt! And feel thankful for the opportunity to impress a warm-hearted lass!!!
HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL (and I do mean all) PBers!
Yes, oldnat, you people sure know how to enjoy yrselves, so much so you do it in london. Australia. California. In fact almost anywhere but yr sour, dim, oaty, dank, freezin, midge-infested KHAZI OF A DEPOPULATING BOGHOLE.
342.Ted,
Well, just heard of other friends plans for tonight being cancelled due to the weather as well, mutterings about braving the mile hike in the snow. This could be the quietest New Year in a long time.
346 aren’t you on the plane yet?
346. “This has been a party political broadcast on behalf of the Scottish Nationalist Party”.
Your a good guy, old nat, in many ways.
Am certain that, come the revolution, you’ll pluck ChristinaD and Easterross from the tumbril, and get them accepted into an especially nice re-education camp!
346 SeanT
I’m really looking forward to David Roe complaining about your “petty nationalism”, or perhaps he will use stronger language if he compares your language to mine.
Or, perhaps he won’t. It’ll be interesting to see, won’t it?
345.SSI, you old rogue, you are a gentleman.
Not had any alcohol yet, but I am just about to remedy that in a mo.
Seant, we cannot help it if all our best traditions are exported.
And whisht, you love Scotland and all its eccentricities.
331. weathercock December 31st, 2009 at 9:01 pm
Hi, I am alright - I too hate new years eve. So pointless.
No booze for me tonight. 
Indeed i have been watching the worse film i think i have ever seen called avalanche express. The snow is foam and obviously so. An avalanche in it is that bad it looks like water and foam being poured onto a toy railway track!!!
One of the lead actors who once gotten eaten by “jaws” (The Shark) died a few weeks after shooting it! 
I think he had a heart attack - Robert Shaw.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/cartoon/
347, ChristinaD
Well, you can have plenty of fun banging pots and spoons. And other things!
344 - Without wanting to state the obvious it is because it is the first meal after the marriage.
Having said that, I’d never heard the term myself until very recently.
Further to the above, with the usual caveats.. Wikipedia suggests it is due to a tradition of fasting before a wedding, but I’ve never heard of that either aside from a tendency for women to be a stone lighter than their usual weight on their wedding day
Oldnat. Sean T doesn’t go in for petty nationalism. He sticks to good old fashioned abuse. I don’t agree with his sentiments but I would suggest the people who are professional Scots outside of Scotland do very little for the country, necessitating the ‘Homecoming’ shindigs of 2009.
Your own, far more measured, dismissal of the English as quaint, stupid bores, is far more in need of rebuttal due to the calm way you dismiss us.
248. A “majority” of 0 amounts to a majority of 1 with the Speaker’s casting vote. 322 seats is the effective winning post if SF continue to abstain.
Happy New Year everyone!
1910=2010=hung parliament…
Evening all. Just thought I’d drop in to wish everyone a happy and profitable 2010. Just scanning through the thread and see that Martin Day has been rehabilitated into the pb.com family. Welcome back!!
360. James Burdett December 31st, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Thank you!
I have been rapidly getting increasingly grumpy and cantankerous for the last hour or so, just be reading mostly innocuous messages from various people on various different forums and websites. Maybe my body-clock is trying to concentrate a whole year’s worth of ageing and auto-grumpification into a couple of hours before midnight. I think I need to go and read a book, or do something else equally old-fashioned and sanctimonious. Hopefully 2010 (or “Zoio” as I call it) will be less miserable for me than 2009 was.
Happy New Year to all.
Political popularity goes up and it goes down. You might vote for the lesser of two or more evils. You might vote for a party which does not coincide with all of your views because no party is a proper match. But I think one thing is fatal for a politician in democratic elections and that is a reputation for being stupid, for being sadly lacking in the brain department.
Some politicians have or have had a reputation for sailing close to the wind, being a sly operator or a ruthless so and so. But people will still vote for him on the grounds that it is not a job for an innocent, but for somebody who can do the job, even if he is not the sort of man you would want your daughter to marry.
This has been proven time and again: Harold Wilson? Berlusconi? Bill Clinton? Tony Blair?
But stupidity; you really don’t want an idiot with his finger on the button. That is why Democrats in the USA always try to depict prominent Republicans as half wits: Reagan, GW Bush, Palin. Sometimes it sticks, sometimes it doesn’t and sometimes it works in the opposite direction (Jimmy Carter).
Now we have Mr Flat Earth himself Gordon Clown. For me that statement was the definining moment in the coming election campaign. It was then that I realised that Brown was simply stupid. Not stupid because of his stance on Global Warming. He shares that stupidity with many others including Cameron. But too stupid to realise that today, following Climategate especially, he was gratuitously insulting a large precentage of the electorate.
Throw the bum out!
Would argue that professional Scots actaully do contribute to Scotland, by helping to “sell” Caledonia in foreign lands, with tourist influx and drink (and shortbread!) export being just the most direct benefits.
Same can be said of professional Irishmen.
Of course, these types cause more sensitive souls to grind their teeth, and with good cause. BUT the mass of mankind are oblivious to this.
Thus a proud Scot might see Willy the Gardner on “The Simpsons” as an offensive stereotype. Whereas for 99% of viewers he’s a popular adverstisement for all things Scottish!
On a quick delurk to wish everyone whoever they are a very happy and prosperous New Year. Whatever the differences expressed here I would still like to think that there is more to unite than divide us.
297 “Much as I can sympathise with ChristinaD in her 1 on 1 dispute with Mr Glesganat’s attacks”
It’s at least 2 on 1 with just GlenOrGlendaNat and that’s assuming he/she isn’t also Lily Allen and her merry band of personalities.
2009: what a bag o’ shite that was.
2010: THE YEAR WE MAKE CONTACT.
367 - Hear, hear Mr C!!
The naming of the year as something worthy and pointless by the United Nations is a tradition that really shows the pointlessness of this organisation.
2008 was the year of the potato. Spuds worldwide celebrated.
2010 is the International Year of Biodiversity.
22 May is the International Day of Biodiversity. May also could well see the unnatural world of Westminster see a change in its own make-up.
Will Labour MPs have become an endangered species in preparation for a June poll or will the expected Commons cull have already taken place?
Could the year herald a flourishing of the lesser-spotted Scottish Tory? Will the southern-English Labour MP be extinct outside of London?
We’re in for an exciting year. Whatever the UN call it.
370 - I’m still waiting for the International Year of That White Stuff That Forms At the Edges of Your Mouth.
370, stuff like that pisses me off.
National No Smoking Day and so forth is just a pile of shittiness.
I proclaim 2010 the Dawn of the Age of Morris Dancer!
Let all those who defy the Word of Morris be cast down by His Mighty Cannon, and let all those who obey the Word of Morris applaud vigorously as the Contemptible are fired into the heart of the Sun, for this is His command!
371 - If you can get the UN Congress to debate it, it’s sure to happen.
2009 seems to have been the year of the shark. I could have sworn it was the year of Tiger.
372 - I shall pour out a libation to that.
Apparently Feb 5 is Kashmir day. I think they misspelled it. Cashmere Day would be much better.
The more important thing to debate in the next two hours is what to call the new year?
I have always gone for two thousand and nine for this year but I shall be going for twenty ten for next.
Anyone supporting two thousand and ten?
372 - National No Smoking day, was the catlyst for me to give up smoking. But agree with the rest of your sentiments
376 - I’m a Two thousand and ten man
The BBC on the other hand, is going for twenty ten
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/6897583/BBC-stars-discuss-how-to-pronounce-2010.html
276 - twenty ten for me. I’ve been waiting 9 blasted years for this so I can stop with all that ‘two thousand ‘n” nonsense
As we look forward to 2010 (and for me personally the last time I see a Labour PM for an awfully long time) I would like to pass on a simple message to 2009: “If you ever come round and bother me again, you will regret it”. So onwards to Twenty-Ten…
SeanT, if you haven’t left for you Hogmanny party already (my advice: do NOT wear a necktie or ingest any lukewarm haggis) saw your post the other day, in which you mentioned in passing you’d been out doorbelling with a MK councilor.
Could you give some details of that? My shrill warnings re: dangers of extreme Cornish nationalism nothwithstanding, am guardedly sympathetic to the Meb-Kerns.
Guardedly because my basic instinct is unionist. BUT at same time support local autonomy and sovereignty (on par way US state are “sovereign”).
Thought your analysis of Irish independence in 21st century was quite cogent. Though I doesn’t make me any less eager to be at the GPO for the centenary in 2016.
just popping on to say a very happy new year to one and all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acxnmaVTlZA
It’s twenny-ten, and anyone who says otherwise is entitled to their opinion.
381 - I suggest I will be as far away from Belfast and London/Derry as is humanly possible on that date.
Maybe for the whole year.
John Loony, think that you’re prediction success rate (with ones you just posted) is going to be well above 50%.
BTW, one great thing about being interested in and excited by politics, is that there’s always an election just around the corner. If not in your immediate neck of the woods, then just down the road. Which these days means the other side of the globe.
And YOU’VE got a humdinnger heading your way for 2010!
LABOUR =
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6916478/Harriet-Harman-to-play-key-role-in-Labour-election-campaign.html
The deputy Labour leader’s role is the latest indication of Peter Mandelson’s diminishing influence.
386 - Harpy fronting the election has to be worth a few votes for the Conservatives.
301. John L December 31st, 2009 at 8:22 pm
I don’t think the public care about splits per se but they do care that a leader appears strong and in control. Splits are fine if the leader comes out on top - as Mrs Thatcher invariably did, until the last occasion when she didn’t.
By autumn 2006 Blair was clearly on the losing side of the split and a figure of contempt in his own party.
That’s not the whole story of his decline, of course, and Iraq and simple public boredom also played a big part in it.
376, DR - Here is WA we have a lovely town by name of Cashmere, just east of the Cascades in Chelan County on the banks of the Wenatchee River. Town was named cause early settler thought the local valley was a dead ringer for Vale of Kashmir (or Cashmere as was common 19th cen. English translitation).
BTW recently suggested to prominant citizen of Cashmere that the place might actually help advance the cause of peace in southwest Asia. IF the US ceded Cashmere WA to Pakistan.
He said he’d think about it.
386 - From that.
What is wrong with the women of this country?
“Andy Burnham, the Health Secretary, will also play a prominent role after Labour’s private polling found him to be popular with women. The Government’s record with the NHS is regarded as a strong campaigning message by Labour”
387. James Burdett December 31st, 2009 at 10:09 pm
This bit cracked me up “Several other key members of the Cabinet including Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, are likely to play low-key roles as they have to concentrate on winning their own Parliamentary seats.”
Though the whole piece is pretty funny! Liam Byrne an attack dog!
Problem is he ends up biting himself with his stupid comments! 
386 is there a role for Gordon Brown? or is he the Mrs Rochester of the campaign?
390 - You notice it didn’t say what age group of women.
392 - Gordon Brown will be spending the election locked away in the cellar.
391 There must be lots of tenners to kick Balls out arriving at the local Conservative office
392 - Gordon’s role is to take the blame when all the rest pretend that they weren’t involved in any election campaign and if they gave the impression that they were in any way involved then it was because nasty Gordon made them do it.
390. The Screaming Eagles December 31st, 2009 at 10:12 pm
I read that as he is not as unpopular as Gordon Brown!
Of course they cannot say that but most folk have no idea who Andy Burnham is nevermind which ministers chair he is shineing with his bottom! 
397 - I tended to read that as middle aged women quite like him as he is potential son-in-law material. Dull, dependable and unlikely to get very far with a wandering eye if he has one.
Woman (Though Certainly Not All) Have A Strange Fondness For Balls.
390 - SSI. Fascinating! Thank you for that titbit. It’s things like that that keep this place a must-read even though the rows sometimes take a fair bit of scrolling.
400 - SSI, that’s a shockingly rude comment, that i’d expect from the likes of well, me.
Well done
387. I love this:
“Strategists believe that Ms Harman’s general election presence could prove important in reaching out to both women and middle England, two groups who are resistant to Gordon Brown.”
Women and middle England … resistant to Gordon Brown. That’d be 75% of the population then?
395. Ted December 31st, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Actually thats not a bad idea.
I wish i had nominated Ed Balls on Iain Dales Dirty Dozen Target list - he is featuring one each week IIRC!.
That could probably raise a couple of Grand on that - As everybody hates Ed Balls!
403 - The word is hostile not resistant.
Ladies and Gentleman, please make sure you are sitting down, before reading this
Martin Kettle writes
Is a Labour-Tory coalition unthinkable? Only until you think about it
Seeing Britain’s problems through the prism of a hung parliament could convince the Tories and Labour to do the deal
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/31/grand-coalition-hung-parliament
Oh - Look Gordon Brown is obviously going to meet his friends at the BBC on Sunday:
“The Prime Minister will mark his return to Westminster with a high-profile BBC interview on January 3rd” - So no doubt Andrew Marr will soft soap him whilst Toe Nails makes a brief appearance that is unscheduled on Andrew Marrs program no doubt.
Hope the Tories are going to announce something on Saturday night/ Sunday morning to burst Gordons bubble!
@406:
I’m thinking about it, and I’m just seeing William Hague kicking Harriet Harman in the fanny over and over again.
406 - What has he been smoking?
406
Hell would freeze over before that happened.
What was Jack Straw thinking attacking the police like that? One an almost feel sorry for any Labour MP who gets caught speeding, or harmanises their car, in the foreseeable future. Or whose file is now in the hands of the police for expenses fraud.
And what is Barack Obama actually for? His smack-of-firm-government reaction to the Christmas day bomb attempt has been to call a large meeting for next Tuesday. I am sure there will be some awesome powerpoint presentations to look at. And donuts to eat. What should have happened is that he should have declared instantaneously that passenger profiling would apply immediately to all flights to the US, and people would no longer be put at risk of dying for political correctness - a call which the US should have made long ago and which he is uniquely well placed to make given his skin colour. The rest of the world would more or less reluctantly fall into line; job done. He has been 2009’s biggest disappointment.
406/408/409/410 - The only upside I can see is, the looks on the face of the Lib Dems, when there’s a coalition government, and they aren’t part of it.
There’s a word for that.
387. But why do labour think that Harmon is an asset amongst women? She is the kind of shrill do gooding man hater that puts many swing voters off.
406. The Screaming Eagles December 31st, 2009 at 10:25 pm
My take on that and i have posted here and elsewhere is that the Tories with Cameron as PM could in a new parliament after the election has washed some of the expenses deviants away lead to Cameron led National Government where some Blairites and Lib Dems in a hung parliament situation assist the Cameron National Government in turning things around. I think Labour as a whole needs to be away from Government so it can either kill itself or realign itself. The Lib Dems, despite no PR being instigated would actually be able to use a place in a national cameron government to depose the Labour party as the party of the left. Thing is they are too short cited to see that and preffer to focus on the route they have taken over many years.
391. I love Andy Burnham! He looks like a slightly more feminine Stephen Colbert. I wish I had his pretty lashes.
Front Pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Fridays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-Friday-January-1-2010/Media-Gallery/200912415512250?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15512250_Fridays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Friday%2C_January_1%2C_2010
413 - They don’t understand anything other than the narrow confines of the ultra-divisive form of identity politics that they feed off of.
408 Martin Coxall. Would that be an English or American fanny?
412. The Screaming Eagles December 31st, 2009 at 10:30 pm
Thats what happened in Germany of course.
The left then split - I suppose it would be the BNP that screwed labour in this country instead of a Left Party.
412 - Only if you want to see Lib Dems grinning like maniacs. A Tory-Labour coalition would be a Lib Dem wet dream frankly, and I write as a Lib Dem. Won’t happen in a million years but it would be amazingly good for us.
Clegg would be Leader of the Opposition. He’d have fulfilled his political destiny.
And every opposition MP could have a bench to themself for a lie down.
If Harriet gets banged up for her crime, she won’t be available to front any election campaign…
(well, we can dream)
420 - You’re right, it would be a boost for the Lib Dems, BNP and UKIP
Apologies for lumping the Lib Dems in with the BNP, but hopefully you undestand what I mean.
406 etc. I don’t think the public would accept or understand a grand coalition unless there was a genuine national crisis. I mean a crisis of survival, not just a GDP contraction. A biological or nuclear attack maybe?
420. If there were such a crisis then I guess the Lib Dems would join the coalition also.
422. Simon December 31st, 2009 at 10:39 pm
“If Harriet gets banged up for her crime, she won’t be available to front any election campaign…”
I have an image of a handcuffed and leg-ironed Harriet, perhaps in one of those day-glow orange boiler-suits they seem to favour for condemned prisoners in the American South, expostulating to Andrew Marr or Adam Boulton.
425 - I think that says more about you than Harriet….
425 - Mind bleach now!!
427 - Well we’ve all seen those movies involving womens prisons.
(I live near one, I’ll go undercover and find out if it’s true)
426. Indeed it does. “But in the morning I shall be sober.”
428 - You might need to raid your wife’s wardrobe one suspects it would aid your endeavours.
428. The Screaming Eagles December 31st, 2009 at 10:49 pm
They probably sit around eating Muffin and cream all day!
430 - Due to an unfortunate incident a few months ago. I’m no longer allowed to wear her clothes.*
*Before you all reach for the mind bleach, I put on one of her t shirts, and stretched the neck too much.
432 - Oh deary deary me…
Right I’m off to spend the remains of this year in the company of Jools Holland. Happy New Year one and all.
So we have a Grand Coalition, who will be PM, Chancellor, Home Sec, and Foreign Sec.
423 - The BNP and UKIP would be very unlikely to be in Parliament to enjoy it. The key benefit for the Lib Dems would be official opposition status.
Perhaps 2010 (as has been considered in a PB article a few months ago) could be another 1974 - 2 general elections. For political anoraks like us, that would be just fantastic.
I think it is certainly possible for Cameron to be just short in May.
However I think the Tories would soldier on in that event and call another GE not in 2010 but probably spring 2011.
435 - I think they’d enjoy it, at the following GE
“The Tories and Labour, both the same”
435 - They do all that already. It’s the Lib Dems who’d never be off the airwaves responding to whatever the Government did, not UKIP or BNP.
297 Jim M said “a poster who has called all SNP-supporting posters “thugs””
Ahhh…diddums…why dont you cry to y’r mammi.
Clearly I did not call all SNP-supporting posters “thugs”. So either you are mistaken or a LIAR. Which is it?
I was talking about Scottish Nationalist Thugs. I didnt quantify how many. I didnt say “most” of the SNP posters, “a few”, “some” or “all”.
If you were at least half witted you would see that it continued from the previously quoted sentence which mentioned “there is a small minority of deeply unpleasant and very aggressive cybernats”.
So, we have seen the aggressive Nationalist thugs, then we have the Nationalists that take umbridge at everything (poor wee narrow shouldered types they are) and then we have those who print untruths. Now what name do we use for them?
Clearly there are many types of Scottish Nationalists. I haven’t yet found a use for one of them.
438. SNP - Surely it would cause the Lib Dems problems in that they would be being critical and partisan, they do the bit at election time about the Tories and Labour being partisan and they say they are not.
I actually think that sort of situation would do the Lib Dems no favours at all. It could create a situation where it polarised back to Labour verses Tory and the Lib Dems would be locked out. It has happened before.
The grand coalition will never happen anyway but the Lib Dems may have a chance of being in a Cameron led Government of National Unity. That to them would be far more valuable than being the main opposition party of X seats IMO. Not that the Lib Dems will take it even if offered.
440 - Agree it won’t happen. But totally disagree about affects. It would be an unmitigated positive for the Lib Dems. A Tory-Labour Government would be really difficult to make a success of and, if/when it fails, Lib Dems would be the only real beneficiary.
REMEMBERING JACKO
as midnight approaches in the Great Wen/Big Smoke thought pbers might enjoy this exerpt from the annual “We Regret These Errors” in this weeks edition of “The Stranger” a Seattle alternative weekly:
‘Stranger associate editor Eli Sanders regrets that, in an attempt to salute the King of Pop on the occassion of this death, he created a situation in which his name will henceforth be linked electronically for all time with the headline “How Michael Jackson Touched Me as a Child”‘
442 - This is the article. Oh dear
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/how-michael-jackson-touched-me-as-a-child-1/Content?oid=1756676
happy new year to PB from temperate oz, already almost 10am here in brisvegas so we are recovering well.
not much on the roads as yet.
it would be good to go back to edinburgh and freeze oneself silly in a large happy drunken crowd, JUST for the day though, cold weather loses its attractiveness to me after a day or so.
May I wish all PBers a Happy New Year, may the first day of 2010 be the beginning of a better tomorrow
Goodbye 2009. In fact goodbye the noughties. Thank god.
Jeez what a crap decade that was.
First of the first?
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Happy New Yr. 2010 is going to be fascinating .
Happy New Year PB.com!
New thread up
Once Brown had pushed out his predecessor and bullied his colleagues so he was the only candidate, yes, Brown was doomed to lose … and quite right too! Off with his head!