Have Iain Dale’s voters been a bit premature?
December 29th, 2009Iain Dale’s end of year elections:-
Pollster of the Year
1. YouGov
2. Angus Reid
3. ICM
How could they support an untested firm?
I’m sure that my friends at PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, won’t be too upset to learn that I did not vote for them as “pollster of the year” in Iain Dale’s annual elections. The Vancouver-based firm only started publishing UK voting intention surveys in October and clearly have yet to go through the process of having their findings tested against real results in an actual election here.
The only test that we’ve had during 2009 was the Euro elections on June 4th when both YouGov and Populus came pretty close in the battle for top pollster. My vote went to one of these two.
Although AR has a big international reputation it is new to the UK and its methodology challenges some British polling orthodoxies. A major area is the way it operates it past vote weighting formula. ICM, Comres and Populus don’t weight to the actual result of the last election but a notional one designed to deal with the problem of “false recall”.
For some reason more people say they remember voting Labour than actually did so and the pollsters weight to a notional 2005 outcome that usually has Labour about six points ahead against the actual margin of 2.9%.
Not so Angus Reid. It weights to the actual 2005 result - and this is one of the main reasons why it usually reports smaller shares for Brown’s party than the other firms.
Are they right? Who knows at this stage - but this is how the AR approach did at the last Canadian elections just over a year ago.
The UK of course, is different, but I was hellish impressed by this table when the arrangement between PB and Angus Reid was being set up.
Mike Smithson
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They didn’t. PB did.
How can they support an untested firm? Would I be too cynical to suggest that whopping Conservative leads might have more to do with it than track records in Canada?
ICM should not have been 3rd after their failure at the Euros over the Lib Dems.. Populus should have been 1st or 2nd.
2 - The leads may have been higher but to some extent they have shown more Tory positions under 40% than above or at, so I’m not sure that applies. PB has a good reputation and so by giving a prominent position to the pollster some of that reputation will rub off on it…
Actually all Canadian pollsters seem to be quite good. DO we know how accurate they were in the seat total predictions?
My feminine intuition thinks ARS are onto something
OT this is fun - how about thread for this?
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/ten-predictions-for-2010.html
4. What I mean was, readers of Iain Dale will have noted the headline Conservative leads, and voted in the poll accordingly. How else can second place in a Pollster of the Year poll be explained, when there have been no elections in which to test Angus Reid’s accuracy?
I notice the same readership voted for Dan Hannan in Speech of the Year.
ARS surely won’t crash and burn as quickly as poor Dan.
FPT 385/361. A ideal job for the Kalman filter. Can you keep the data in an excel file or google doc spreadsheet?
8 - Fair enough. The headline figures looked very bad for Labour, so that may explain it. We may also have a lot of joint-readers. As I said on the last thread I think this is too high and we need some actual results-based evidence of their accuracy to make a proper judgement.
3 Not sure anyone covered themselves with glory among the Pollsters on the Lib Dems and the Euros though. Seems fairly clear that the Euros are a vehicle for kicking Brussels and or Westminster. If the former you are hardly likely to vote Lib Dem. If the latter thanks to PR there are millions of options that are’nt present under FPTP. Predict they’ll be the closest to the Lib Dem share at the General Election.
FPT….
URW
Well that didn’t exactly go according to plan.
Fair Along is usually the most reliable of animals, but not his day. I did however manage to lay off the win part of the ew bet, so not much damage done.
In an effort to redeem my tattered reputation, I’ll suggest Dr Pat in the 3.15. It’s only 2/1 but value at that, I think. I saw it win at Sandown over a distance plainly too short for it. Connections were I think taken by surprise. It looks a very good horse and one bound for The Festival.
To be honest it seems a rather odd thing to vote for, like voting for which horse has won a race. The best pollster is the one that most accurately predicts the election outcome; that’s all one can say. It’s a matter of fact, not opinion.
10 - FPT: 390 - Rod, I have it in OpenOffice format (free software). If you want my email address, then feel free to contact Mike. I will happily release it to you so that we can get in touch and I will send it over. On the flip side, do you have the polling details back to 2007 for the other pollsters so that I can set it up to cover the other regionals?
by SthLondon Nick December 29th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Off to do the food shop. Back in an hour or so…
Its -8 here right now. Last night one of the weather forcasts had two temperatures for the whole of Scotland, both saying -4. At the time it was -10 here and -15 over the other side of the Cairngorms.
On topic, shouldn’t we wait for the GE? Angus Reid is up there in that poll because they have shown some good leads for the Tories.
Mike, were those rankings based on the final poll from each house, or an average or what?
I can think of one truly excellent reason that Angus Reid could be closest to predicting the result of the next GE.
There is a fair to excellent chance they will be *on their own* in predicting a very comfortable Tory victory.
In other words they could be worst, they could be best. No in-between.
Plato No. 10 from Iain Dale “England reach the World Cup Final with three West Ham players in the team. Again.”
More chance of England winning the cup than one West Ham player getting there. Their best players could well leave the club this Jan becuase they need the money.
I voted Angus read in Dales poll!
I dont look at it on a scientific basis.
18 URW What do you make of the Brighton Pavilion ICM Poll?
re 17 The final polls which is the standard practice.
19 TBH, I’d be surprised if England did better than the quarter finals.
We had the ‘best’ talent team last time IMHO.
Interesting that Segma got the lead correct, which probably translated into a more accurate seat forecast than any of the other pollsters.
21 - *ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 533 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-21st December 2009. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults.
Ignore.
http://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/untitled-document1.html
21. Even if that poll is wildly inaccurate (which many constituency polls are) it’s very publication surely makes Caroline Lucas the likely winner, because she’s now in pole position to receive a shedload of tactical anti-Tory votes.
22 See 25. Are ICM to be ignored on this?
26. Quite possibly, and Labour/LibDem ones…
re 24. How Rod? Don’t look at leads look at shares and Segma quite a lot off from the others.
Get in Dr,Pat !
30 Vote for The Twin Towers! You know they make sense.
Redemption, PtP! Shame I took the early 3.0, but a winner’s a winner… and all the better that I was too late for your first tip!
26 - Call me cynical but if I wanted to run a “only the Green can keep out the Tory” I’d do a poll not weighted to past voting intention around Xmas time and then stick it on all my New Year leaflets.
Mike, I know that YouGov did pretty well during the London Mayoral elections. But have any of the constituency polls done in recent by elections ended up being accurate?
25 - are polls usually weighted to take ‘profile’ into account, rather than say, past voting patterns? Seems like an odd thing to do…
Punter. I have been tipping the Greens at BP for almost a year, so I make that good news.
Labour PPB by the Beeb..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8432825.stm
Sheesh.
32 You didn’t get guaranteed odds, Aaron? All the best firms are doing it these days.
33 ICM are part of the BPC. They have a reputation to guard so is that fair?
31 - Peter & Peter, The Twin Towers sounds like a gay pron movie.
40 We’re much more exciting than that, Tim.
PtP/Aaron. What an amazing race. Pat jumped very big and made that mistake but thereafter there was always something that made you think he would be there in the shake-up.
Always fancied him winning after the last. Great ride by AP.
On the Green party poll I’d like to see the ICM datasets.
42 Not sure he would have beaten Khatchatuian but for the mistake, but he is definitely one for the notebook.
I don’t think that YouGov have done any constituency-specific polls. It’s quite hard for them.
Because they survey from their polling panel they probably son’t have enough people on their lists in a single seat to create a large enough sample.
45 How do they do their marginals Poll then?
OT A Gary McKinnon special
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/pictures-of-the-year/6867771/Pictures-of-the-year-2009-crop-circles-UFO-sightings-ghosts-and-unexplained-phenomena.html?image=11
re 46 By polling 30 or more marginals together.
46 - They’re not marginals polls.
“Is UK government debt really that high?”
“…in fact, the UK has the lowest level of debt of all the leading developed economies of the world. Its 68.7% of GDP compares favourably with the US (84.8%), Italy (115.8%) and Japan (218.6%) in particular.
…according to the IMF, the UK’s debt levels as a percentage of its economic output will be 98.3% in 2014, lower than the US (108.2%), Italy (128.5%) and Japan (245.6%), and only fractionally higher than France (96.3%).
…it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is being penalised simply for having a low level of debt in the first place.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8415703.stm
“For some reason more people say they remember voting Labour than actually did so”
They *meant* to vote but forgot or got dragged down the pub etc and don’t want to admit it.
51.“For some reason more people say they remember voting Labour than actually did so”
Just life-long tories pretending they’ve switched recently.
This site’s infested with them.
19 Ahem! I do not foresee a firesale at Upton Park in January-and do foresee my beloved Hammers finishing above at leat 4 teams come the end of the season (Wolves,Hull,Portsmouth,Burnley-no offence meant to Mike Smithson,I hasten to add!)
52 - You’re very free with your accusations of lying, bad faith and hypocrisy at the moment.
52. A vast right-wing conspiracy? Are you Hillary Clinton?
In defence of Iain Dale’s respondents, it is perfectly reasonable to say that Angus Read were the ‘pollsters of the year’, in the sense that their arrival on the scene was a noteworthy event of 2009. The question wasn’t ‘Which pollster will prove most accurate?’
I suspect the vote for ARS was not so much a positive vote as a negative one. There are reasons why Conservative supporters have become suspicious of the other main pollsters in recent weeks and months, with their wild swings and/or erratic samples. ARS, apart from giving reassuring Tory leads, also seem less partisan and independent of the British scene and its dominant labour establishment.
tim - You put me in a very bad mood with that link on previous thread. I get knotted up inside…even more than usual.
Peter the Punter has completely lifted my spirits.
Re B.Pavilion: This one is as close as I ever get to ‘crystal balls’. I just think that Caroline will get more good publicity than any other individual candidate and on a bad night for the Beeb, hers will be the only feelgood story.
Also I have a feeling that Joanna Lumley may appear at some stage in the Green campaign in Brighton.
52 ha ha ha ha ha
58 I agree URW. I think the media will love the novelty factor of a potential Green MP and will give her all the free publicity she wants. BP looks like a seat that will love the media attention. Labour’s travails and the Tory candidate switch will assist them further as well.
59 More considered reply.
I’ve had those actual conversations:
Me: Did you vote then?
Them: (looking all shifty) erm yes
When i knew for a fact they planned to vote after work but went down the pub instead.
NickP has already been trying this one out on here with echoes of the Glenrothes by election.
Sam Coates on his Red Box - Labour websites go vertical: Jon Cruddas and Chuka Umunna target Tory councillors
“Jon Cruddas and fellow Compass traveller, Streatham Labour candidate Chuka Umunna, today launch Tory Story, highlighting the work of Tory councillors across Britain. Carefully researched - the launch edition highlights schemes in Surrey praised by David Cameron which later faced cuts, for instance - it aims to tell tales on Tory administrations around Britain. That will take hard work (the heavy lifting is done by two students and a Labour candidate) and funding (the press release mentions left-leaning web campaigns company Blue State Digital in passing, “Mr Cruddas used the services of Blue State Digital during the Labour deputy leadership contest of 2006/07″, but does not make clear if they are involved in this venture.)
Along with Will Straw’s Left Foot Forward, Labour websites are going for vertical policy attacks over high politics. In part this reflects Labour’s belief, backed by polling evidence, that it needs to exploit the fact the public does not believe the wider Tory party - excluding David Cameron - has changed. At the same time, by chosing to avoid purely political debate, websites such as these avoid having to go in to defend Gordon Brown too much. A happy coincidence, no doubt. That wont stop both being worth adding to the RSS.”
54. antifrank
Not a single tory will question the position of their Director of Communications & Planning, in light of his proven involvement with the bullying of a mentally ill man.
tory sympathy for McKinnon and Shaikh being particularly hypocritical.
I feel no goodwill to any of you miserable cowards.
63
Not a single Labourite will question the position of their Prime Minister, in light of his proven involvement with the bullying of a secretaries, reducing many to tears and throwing mobile phones across the office.
63 - I’m not a Tory (and probably won’t be voting for them either). I have condemned bullying and Andy Coulson for doing so. Since your stated position is that anyone held by an employment tribunal at any time to have bullied someone who does not salaam at your feet for mercy should be deemed unemployable - discreet silence and vehement denials alike failing to satisfy you - as only too often you manage to look simultaneously authoritarian, absurd and contemptible.
63 I note that antifrank has now become a Tory - blimey, projection on here is alive and well/
Poltergeist anyone ?
(Previous thread, during the philosophical discussions) Morris Dancer It doesn’t prove god doesn’t exist, in the same way it doesn’t prove the invisible pink unicorn doesn’t exist.
The non-existence of the invisible pink unicorn is proved by the fact that any invisible unicorn which may or may not exist is, ipso facto and by definition, not pink; and that any pink unicorn which may or may not exist is, ipso facto, not invisible; notwithstanding that no concession or admission is made or should be presumed as to the existence or non-existence of any unicorn, of what ever colour or visibility status.
Gabble could be a robot , couldn’t he ?
67 Does My Little Pony count?
63-Not me!
I am uncomfortable about McKinnon as he has become the poster boy of the anti-American left (among others). He’s a computer hacker. Next time you get a virus that deletes your hard drive will you think it’s ok as it’s done by a kid with few social skills? Or even better, your bank account gets cleaned out because of a hacker with “emotional problems” or whatever?
As for Shaik? I think we do not know all the story - no one claims he didn’t bring 4kg of heroin into China. And seeing women with rags on their heads asking for clemency reminded me of protests calling for Shariah law in the UK and “off with their heads” calls.
63.Gabble, have you been at the eggnog the last few days?!
You appear particularly over excited and bad tempered, things not going well in the upper echelons of government this week? Is there a real shift afoot in the Cabinet since that disastrous PBR, letting Balls and Cooper call the shots to the detriment of the rest of the team and the country? Has Brown retreated to his comfort zone again after falling out with Mandelson too?
Darling, Alexander, Mandelson, how many feuds have we got on the go this time, Ed Balls must be getting dizzy with all that spinning and briefing in the press these days. Its just like the old days when Gordon used to do it all the time to his own enemies, oops, colleagues.
I am against the death penalty in all circumstances. But I won’t bat any more of an eyelid at the execution of a British man in China any more than the hundreds of other people who get executed there. And I don’t understand why the media keep saying that he was bipolar, as if that somehow means that he was unaware of what he was doing.
I was surprised to discover that he is the first British person to be executed in China since 1951. I wouldn’t mind betting that there may have been a few Chinese people who were hanged in the UK in the 1950s or 1960s, or that there might be doubts about the guilt of some of them.
John Loony is the Martin Peters of pb.com - ten years ahead of his time.
JL for POTY in 2019 !
58 URW - I have inside information on that one!
Ms Lumley will NOT be supporting any political Party, at this election or any other in the foreseeable future. This was given to me by one of my most trusted moles some time ago (about the time of her Ghurka campaign.)
Nevertheless I expect the Greens to take Brighton, without her assistance, and quite possibly Norwich south too.
69. it’s not invisible innit
Out of interest, who is the Cooper/Balls PR spiv?
72. John, of course the death penalty is just as wrong when it applies to Chinese citizens. But surely if we don’t bat an eyelid over this case, we’ll never bat an eyelid over the horrors of capital punishment in China at all?
On a point of pedantry, apparently it was an Italian who was executed in China in 1951.
Gabble: I assume that you are a net beneficiary of the tax/welfare system. For those who pay into it nothing could be more admirable than a healthy suspicion of claims for sickness benefit based on “depression arising from work-related stress”. Obviously in the case of Driscoll his suspicions were unfounded, as the findings of the tribunal establish on a balance of probabilities; however, over-zealousness in this area is highly pardonable.
You say that “Not a single tory will question the position of their Director of Communications & Planning.” Wrong. I will. I think it a disgrace and a scandal that Coulson has the job he has. With his record, he should be shadow home secretary.
Happy now?
I have a simple view about Chinese hangings.
Their country, their laws.
Break their laws? Tough sh1t.
Mentally unwell? Why are your family not supporting you?
74 I doubt that on Norwich South. There are 2 other strong contenders for the seat and the Lib Dems who have most to fear if the Greens gain traction in University seats will surely aided by Clegg’s debates appearances go all out to stamp on the threat. The vast bulk of Green spending will also surely got to Pavilion wqhich is a tough ask but miles better for them as a prospect. Though see 60 I think they will win Brighton Pavilion as well.
I voted for Angus Reid in the poll because they seem to have solved the problem of overstatement of Labour figures in polls. They occasionally produce very different results to the other firms, but so did Yougov in the run up to the London mayoral elections.
74 PtP- Interesting. I have a subliminal recollection of Patsy(not the horse) appearing alongside Caroline Lucas just after she was canonised - and that was when the idea gelled that the Greens were nailed- on in B.Pavilion.
79. In Germany, the Nuremberg Laws were once “Their Laws”…
79 I agree with your first two points, the last one requires local/family support that may not be available.
1. Chinese law prescibes the death penalty for smuggling drugs.
2. the guy smuggled 4 kilos(!) and got caught red handed.
That’s it. There is apparently no record of him having a mental condition, and even if he had it seems doubtful that it would be a mitigating circumstance.
All this nonsense about outrage just makes everyone look a little ridiculous.
People who don’t approve of Chinese law or their judicial system should stay out of China.
ChristinaD December 29th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
I note that the Labour activists know no other position but to attack and smear their opponents. It even drags in MPs to wine about local council actions that are none of their business when they should be focused on national matters such as one way extradition treaties that afflict British people who are mentally ill and some are also innocent. Meanwhile Denis McGabble and tiny tim keep wallowing in the cesspit as well.
Good news is that most of these Labour activists will have to be job searching in a few months time.
With regards the Brigton Pavilion poll, I wonder if this will start a trend of parties comissioning polls in seats that they are targetting with the hope of getting the right answer. If they get it this would be used to squeeze the votes of other parties challenging for the seat. Using opinion polls as a form of self fulfilling prophesy.
80 Punter - It’s not likely, but it is definitely possible. You can get 8/1 generally, which suggests an 11% probability, but note that The Astute Shadsy is offering only 4/1, which equates to 20%.
I think Shads has got it about right.
On topic. Another way of interpreting this result is to correlate it with the generally high regard for PB shown amongst Iain Dale’s voters - winner of political website of the year and Mike runner up for blog personality of the year. Confidence in Angus Reid surely reflects confidence in this site.
50 - Thanks for link. You appear to have missed out these elements though:
“The problem, she says, is the degree to which the debt has deteriorated. In 2007, before the financial crisis, the UK’s debt stood at just 44.1% of GDP, according to the IMF. That’s a rise of more than a half in just two years.
And, according to most projections, it is set to go an awful lot higher.
According to Standard & Poor’s (S&P) credit rating agency, the government’s support for the financial sector could result in debt levels hitting almost 100% of GDP by 2013.
“A government debt burden of that level, if sustained, would, in S&P’s view, be incompatible with a AAA rating,” the agency has said.
[...]
Repaying these high levels of debt will force countries to cut spending and raise taxes, with potentially serious implications for their inhabitants.
[...]
What really concerns markets is a perceived lack of determination on behalf of the government to do so.
“Markets like to see measures laid out in a clear plan of action,” says Stuart Green, global economist at HSBC.
And while others have laid out more detailed plans about how to reduce their debt levels, the UK has been rather vague.
“The government hasn’t done enough to reassure markets, not as much as other countries,” says Vicky Redwood.”
and so on…
The general tennor of the piece is that we do have a deficit problem to deal with much more than a cumulative debt problem. However if the markets change their mind, then both could become an issue or both could stop being an issue…
I went to Brighton Pavilion last month and it was like going back to the 1970s. The economy consists mostly of ageing hippies selling each other vinyl records, bean soup and objets de vertu. The Greens should take it if the Baader Meinhof Group don’t stand.
79. “Mentally unwell? Why are your family not supporting you?”
By all accounts, they desperately wanted to.
One of the more intriguing (and exasperating) aspects of living in the Deep South is the dragging of religion into everything.
I know several people who believe that all life is sacred and a gift from God, and therefor abortion should be illegal because it is the taking of a God-given life. All these same people are in favour of capital punishment.
When pressed they will explain that the murderer lost his sacredness by killing the other person.
So sacredness is a gift from God but can be returned locally.
89 PollyB December 29th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
I agree. It is also true that people on here trust Mike’s polling judgments.
85-And the sorriest spectacle was Gordon and Millipede. I can imagine Millipede doing his Tiger Tim impression and getting very very (this time for real) angry and clenching his little fists to try and look “hard”. With as much effect.
I actually feel sorry for Ivan Lewis, given a thankless task by his masters too cowardly to come out in the open.
Of course, wasn’t it that fearsome duo of Gordon and Millipede (doesn’t matter which, or was it both Millipedes?) castigating the Chinese for the Copenhagen fiasco? (ironic as it probably saved us)
I still think the Chinese repsosne was the best one. They claimed that the UK always argued judicial independence in the UK when an extradition request was received from China. And in China, the judiciary is independent (!) and so the executive cannot interfere in the judicial process.
Eat shееt Gordon. Everything he touches turns to shееt.
You didn’t visit the vegetarian shoe shop?
http://www.qype.co.uk/place/218242-Vegetarian-Shoes-Brighton
Christ, call youself a tourist
On the Green Party/Brighton, i think if they are to win a constituency, then it will be there. Caroline Lucas is one of the most capable politicians in the Green Party. She is lucid and able to construct a good argument. You may disagree with her, but it is hard not to listen.
82 URW
She’s no doubt generally sympathetic but when a friend visited her about the time of the Ghurka campaign, I suggested a discrete question about political affiliations, if the opportunity arose. It did and the answer was unequivocal.
Of course Ms Lumley may have been lying, or she may yet change her mind, but the simpler explanation that she was telling the truth and has no intention to support the Greens publicly is much more likely to be correct.
Had she responded otherwise, I would of course have reported the matter here on PB, (but only after lumping on the appropriate markets myself!)
Mr Dale’s 2010 predictions:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/12/ten-predictions-for-2010.html
87 Would that not be against BPC rules.
88 Maybe but I just don’t see how they can override both the Tories and the Lib Dems who can call on vastly greater resources. As said if the Greens get going that would be serious for the Lib Dems nationally not just in Norwich South but in all University seats. They certainly acted very swiftly to derail the Greens at the Norwich North By-election. If the same occurs and they get into furious combat with the Greens that may aid the Tories further in Norwich South or even Labour though if Brown is Leader it would be a miracle even with a split opposition for Clarke to hold on.
- and the Speccie weighs in on the ball burning bomber..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/rodliddle/5666551/another-islamist-succeeds-only-in-burning-his-balls.thtml
As I type my daughter is on a Delta flight back to Atlanta from the UK so I have a more than casual interest…
93 Not “all”, Tim B, not all….
Key to helping the Greens challenge for seats is if they radically increase to 400+ the number of candidates that they stand. Last time 200, next time what?
Anyone have a link to the media rules on how many broadcasts a party is entitled to?
Gabbles not a robot - he’s a bampot
96. ‘Fraid I missed it. But I have a very nice pair of “natural” shoes from the “Natural” Shoe Shop in Covent Garden. Naturally.
Wells on the ICM Green Party poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2394
He thinks it is kosher.
99 SthLondon - Interesting that he plumps for Ed Miliband as Brown’s replacement.
BTW Thanks for the link on previous thread to your regional polls page - very useful indeed. (Pity that ICM lump Scotland with N England…)
For anyone who missed it:
http://regionalpollsuk.blogspot.com/
Patsy never lies,PtP. Shame on you for suggesting otherwise. Along with Honeysuckle Weeks and Jenny Agutter, the adorable Ms.Lumley is the highest expression of loveliness in this wicked world.
They are the sort of girls who kept the home fires burning.
No irony.
Chris Woodhead thinks that the Tories school policy has some flaws:
http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/2556/full
96 - Plato I remember going to Brighton back in the 1970s, and there was a music shop above what I think was a family planning clinic, with the name ‘Southern Organs”.
110 There was also a famous shoe-shop called R-Soles
No idea if it’s still there.
94. TC - absolutely. It’s like having a top reference on a job application.
92
The guy was destitute in Poland before approached to smuggle drugs.
If that is “supporting him”….
102 - I meant “all” in the sense that all the people I know who are of that view believe in both anti-abortion and the death penalty.
More than that I cannot say.
107 - Ed does seem to be the rising star at the moment. There is some good reasoning behind that. He has done quite well with the Climate Change portfolio, does come across as quite normal and has a bit of a personality. His brother is too closely linked with Blair I suspect for many and AJ keeps going on about how bad he would be at the job. In a post election environment where Labour has lost they can either try and navigate those difficult waters or head down the civil war route.
Cruddas would be another good leader for Labour. He is normal, closer to the concerns of traditional Labour supporters without sounding too terrifying to the Middle Class. As a leader to fight off the BNP he would be an ideal choice.
I know that Unite are supposedly throwing their weight behind Ed Balls and the weekend news articles centred on him are surely the start of his leadership campaign. If they choose Balls they are in trouble.
On another of his predictions I do hope that (should he be re-elected) that Tom Harris gets a position of some influence. He is prepared to stand his ground and criticise the leadership when they get it wrong. Good leaderships need some dissenting voices on certain issues, eg. Ken Clarke.
Seems Brighton attracts the wrong type of stoodents. A friend of mine, having been at Sussex and then Exeter mentioned how at Sussex there were far more right-on types spoiling it for everyone. And Exeter was far better.
107, 115 - Would Ed Miliband stand against his brother? I can’t see it, not this time anyway. The risk of dividing their support and knocking each other out is too high. I see Ed Miliband as a pretty safe sell at present. David Miliband may well get the gig, faute de mieux. Ed Miliband would be a better leader of the Labour party, but his route to the job looks too blocked.
108 No, I certainly wasn’t suggesting the delectable Patsy was being anything other than totally honest, URW. It’s just that I’m always a bit circumspect when passing on information on a betting Site in case somebody lumps on recklessly and loses as a consequence.
I generally accept a person’s word in good faith, until I have evidence not to. The Lovely Lumley is, I am sure, totally trustworthy.
Definitely no irony.
76 Chris, Ed Balls regularly met with Charlie Whelan, Kevin McGuire and Damian McBride (”Damian, don’t know him very well”) until Mandelson threw a wobbly. Would not be surprised if the first two were again welcome on one weekday night every week to discuss strategy along with one or two others from the Brown gang.
I’ve no doubt that the friendly journalists McBride cultivated so assiduously are on speed dial and ready to quote those “close to Ed Balls”.
Ed is full on at present, and I was interested by a reported comment from a Blairite MP that while he thought Balls’s advice to Brown had often been wrong that Ed’s optimism and fight meant he would support a Balls leadership bid.
114-I am uninterested in abortion except as something to goad the left with. Am quie happy to execute people though.
But I guess do not live in the US South.
110/111 - there’s also a dog grooming/accessories shop called… http://www.doggyfashion.co.uk/
115 SL Nick. Couldn’t have Ed Milliband on my mind at the moment.
About three months ago he was my tip for ‘Next PM’, with Cameron included, precisely because I thought Copenhagen would be his big moment.
It wasn’t.
116 Peter2
My daughter was at Exeter and I recall her referring to it as The Green Welly University.
Not sure if that was supposed to be a compliment or not.
115 He does come across miles better on TV as well. I reckon though whether he stands will depend on just how Labour do. Well enough so that a return after 1 term even if not likely is just about plausible then he may well stand. But if Labour get really stuffed that is 2 terms minimum he could well think on Hague and let someone else do the hard slog of initial recovery and look to challenge further on.
121 I’ve bought things from there - very good they are too
They do seem to be rather keen on toy dogs clothes which I think is weird, however their collars are very nice.
111 There was also on Yonge St in Toronto a store selling shirts called the ‘Brick Shirthouse’. It was a nice Victorian brick house.
106. Interesting that the Green support appears to hit Labour harder than it hits the Lib Dems.
120 Interesting, Peter2.
These people you are happy to execute…do they actually have to be guilty of anything?
123-Was a bit like that actually.
Ed Milliband has achieved zilch politically.. To suggest he is a Leader is like suggesting a poodle could lead a pack of huskies pulling a sled…
Just read this in the Mirror
‘Last night the latest polls showed Labour were back in the lead over the Tories in the North, with 44% against just 28%. David Cameron needs to win in the Midlands and North to secure a landslide election victory.’
How have they come up with them figures?
128-It helps.
Another day of Red!
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/gilt/default.stm
131 It was in the FT earlier this morning - its a rehash from what I read so didn’t bother to post it.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/794a8d62-f3e1-11de-ac55-00144feab49a.html
127 There wasn’t too much Lib Dem strength in Brighton Pavilion anyway. They had much less non core support to drift away than Labour did I would think.
132
“David Cameron needs to win in the Midlands and North to secure a landslide election victory”
But not to just secure a modest election victory? I’ll take that, thanks Daily Mirror.
77. I said that I wouldn’t bat any more of an eyelid over this case, not that I wouldn’t bat any eyelid…
Surely the big story is *Yemen*.
These days I am not a leading conspiracy theorist, but something stinks about this.
Here is a man willing to blow himself up and yet when in custody fingers Yemen in ten minutes.
It doesn’t go like that on TV.
115 SthLondon etc - I tend to agree with antifrank. If D Miliband had gone off to Higher Things in Europe, E Miliband would be the front-runner in my view. But DM surely trumps him, and should be favourite (even though I think EM would be a better choice for Labour, albeit still not a very good one).
As to the others:
Harman - No, I think she really has ruled herself out, she would be highly divisive, and anyway she’s too old to start the hard slog from here.
AJ - Too mediocre, too old-hat, nothing really going for him, and (to his credit) he seems to realise this.
Ed Balls - Yes Please! But they surely, surely wouldn’t be THAT stupid, would they? Anyway, in the post-Brown era, when Brown will be air-brushed out of Labour Party history, who will want someone so closely associated with the non-person who is never mentioned but who wrecked the party?
Job Cruddas - Maybe, if he keeps his seat. He would be a more interesting choice, and perhaps worth a try for Labour if they want to reshape the party. A longish shot (you can get 20/1 from Stan James)
I think we can probably discount Purnell, Burnham, Mandy, and anyone else.
113. “The guy was destitute in Poland before approached to smuggle drugs.
If that is “supporting him”….”
This line of argument is going nowhere, Madasafish - a) it’s physically impossible to ’support’ someone who’s gone AWOL, and b) you appear to be suggesting that he should be punished (with a bullet no less) for his family’s lack of care. Yep, that makes sense.
Plato In 1978 Newcastle was totally stopped due to huge snow falls - I was 10 and together with another schoolchum we trudged the 7 miles to school - arriving at about 11am.
I still can’t believe our parents thought this was reasonable or sensible
I remember one day when I was 9 (so it would have been the winter of 1977/8) when I came down for breakfast to be told by my parents that I wouldn’t be going to school because of the snow. When the snow had subsided and we got back to school, one of my classmates was confused. “But you only live five miles away?!? You could have walked!?!” he said - as if it was perfectly reasonable to expect a weedy nine-year-old to trudge through several inches of snow for two hours. The thing is that he was perfectly serious. He was so mindbogglingly confident about everything. No surprise to discover from Friends Reunited that he’s a bossy entrepreneur with his own business.
87. Bob Using opinion polls as a form of self fulfilling prophesy.
In a FPTP system, that is the main purpose and function of opinion polls - to identify the likely winners and enable the voters to maximise the efficiency of their votes by squeezing the losers.
93 Tim B
“One of the more intriguing (and exasperating) aspects of living in the Deep South is the dragging of religion into everything.”
Doesn’t sound like Brighton Pavilion!
140 - Don’t rule Ed out.
If Labour are badly beaten and the number of Blairites reduced substantially then theres a chance David would see his brother as having a better chance.
When the news came on the radio last night that the British man had been executed, I was lying awake in bed trying to remember who all the Foreign Secretaries have been since 1997. I remembered David Miliband (because he is the incumbent) and Robin Cook (because he had substance) but it took me ages to remember Margaret Beckett and it wasn’t until I got up and started interneting that I even remembered Jack Straw at all. It just emphasised the fact that for all intents and purposes, Tony Blair was his own Fon Setry for a lot of the time - especially in his later years.
If there’s a “tallest man” competition and the only contestants are three midgets then a midget will win.
140 RN See 124. I think Purbell and EM will look heavily at the state of Labour after the result. The more badly beaten the more likely they will think on Hague and wait for better times.
146.
PB POTY = tallest midget competition
143 - indeed not
147 - On current polling a Tory maj of 30 is about the most likely result (and thats with Brown as leader).
If that were the outcome then parallels with Hague aren’t serious as 179 was always going to be insurmountable in on Parliament.
The fact that Hague went for it just shows what an appalling strategist he is.
130 achieving anything politically i.e. getting public recognition through voting intention, doesn’t seem to figure in internal Labour positioning.
Regularly briefed to press that Gordon Brown had a great success at G20, and the whole Copenhagen early arrival scheme was to position Brown as a world leader that others would defer to, as G20 had been such a success. Labour polling fell after the London G20, no-one outside of Team Brown remembers it.
David Miliband has been an outstandingly poor Foreign Secretary, the UK has been marginalised, lost influence with India, Russia, China and even the US (despite his flirtations with Hilary Clinton) but his failure in his job doesn’t seen to have affected his prospects.
Ed Balls has misled Parliament, seen major failures in examinations and child protection, is reportedly viewed by his Department as detached but is again the most influential minister.
Ed Miliband hasn’t delivered anything substantial to take forward the changes the Climate Change Act needs, lots of hot air no action. He failed to get anything concrete at Copenhagen, actually did worse than Prescott did in nearlier negotiations. So he’s the rising star.
James Purnell who steered through a major reforming agenda and got something started on reform of social benefits is on the outside, with little influence.
144 tim, 147 Punter - Yes, I agree with both points. I don’t think EM should be ruled out, but DM looks more likely (I’ve got bets at very good effective odds on both, having sold both on SPIN and bet on both at longer odds in the conventional markets). As Punter says, Purnell could well be a possibility later. However, it’s hard to see EM following DM, so his calculation will be a bit different.
146 The most bizarre spam email I’ve ever had was an invitation to join a midget s3x forum and pron/dating site
A niche market is ever there was one - luckily I’m on the tall side
119.”Ed is full on at present, and I was interested by a reported comment from a Blairite MP that while he thought Balls’s advice to Brown had often been wrong that Ed’s optimism and fight meant he would support a Balls leadership bid.”
Ted, thanks for that post, really interesting. I have noted that over recent weeks, the Balls’s media briefing has been full on, and with the ‘Minister close/closest to Brown’ caveat very much in evidence to add more weight to his comments. He is certainly filling quite a large vacuum left by others in the Cabinet on that front right now.
It looks like he has seen off Mandelson too, and that Brown is sticking with the nanny apron strings he knows best.
153- My other monicker is ‘ the_ mgt’ so I am deeply offended not to be invited to the party.
153 - I once received an email, inviting me to toss dwarves in Manchester.
Turns out there was a competition to toss dwarves lots of metres.
Sadly, some people protested, and it got cancelled.
155/156 I wondered where I’d been to end up on their mailing list
157 - Sadly, I have one of those email addresses that attracts spam.
153 - Tall for a midget Plato, or tall in the more conventional sense?
URW/antifrank/Ted/Time/Richard Nabavi et al…
The reason I keep leaning towards Ed M as opposed to Dave M is that we seem to forget the elephant in the room: Labour funding. The reality is that Unite are currently keeping Labour going with additional donations going into a war wallet for the election. It gives Unite a large amount of indirect control on the party and so it will be with them after the election (assuming a Labour defeat). The problem for DM is that he is the Blairite heir-apparent. I can’t see that as being acceptable to Unite who tend to view the Blair years as a waste. Of course DM would have to stand aside and having one of them leading the other would be a challenge with probably whoever doesn’t become leader accepting that they will never lead Labour.
Ed Balls will be in the election simply because of his Unite backing I suspect.
As to Purnell, he is out of it because he was disloyal. That simply will not wash in Labour - they still attack MacDonald to this day because he went into the National Government.
As to actually having achieved something politically, what exactly had David Cameron done before he was elected leader? He suddenly appeared after his speech in 2005. I certainly was barely aware of him and then suddenly he was front and centre.
158 I logged on to my new gmail account - onanist.central - and found no email at all, not even spam.
I figured it was sure fire with a name like that
160 - I’ve backed James Purnell, he acted very loyally, resigning when the election finished, unlike the likes of Blears.
Sometime next year, Mr Purnell’s words of “your leadership makes a Tory victory more likely, not less likely” will make him appear like a visionary.
161 - If you wish, I can forward you all the ones I get.
159 5′8″ - two midgets added together
163 - It’s OK thanks - I will forgo that particular pleasure
How is the M62 in this inclement weather?
160. SthLondon Nick December 29th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Purnell could well have been a better chance if the cards had fallen in a different way last summer!
Even if Gordon Had stayed in place, Balls though would have been C of E - which would have been national sucide. Purnell may have been viewed as the king over the water!
162 - Anecdote alert. I have a very good friend who is Labour through and through as is their family. They hate him. Hopeless constituency MP, parachuted in etc is their description. Yes he was marginally more loyal than Blears, but he went in a way that attempted to destabilise the leadership. Again, I think he is too much of a Blairite…
153 Saved by your genes.
165 - M62 is fine today, however, I’ve been told to expect, 6inches of snow on top of black ice, sometime this week.
Talking of spam - this is a very amusing spoof
Ross is always very entertaining…
http://fountain.blogspot.com/2009/12/time-to-419-scam-al-qaeda.html
“With the arrest of the Nigerian failed plane bomber I can see that this new Islamist-Nigerian connection could be potentially lucrative. So I’m sending this out to every fundamentalist I can think of:
Dear Sir,
Permit me to inform you of my desire of going into terrorist relationship with you. I have the believe you are a reputable and responsible and pious person I can do business with from the little information so far I gathered about you during my search for a partner and by matter of trust I must not hesitate to confide in you for this simple and sincere business.
I am Mahmoud Abacha 29 years of age the only son of late General Abacha whom was killed by the infidels that attacked our country and took over our town. I ran to Lagos the economical capital of Nigeria from were I am contacting you. Before the death of my father he told me that he has US$9,000,000(Nine million united states dollars) worth of diamonds kept in a private security company here in Nigeria in my name as the next of kin.
Naturally this is too much for me to access as I am a man of modest means. It would make great use to me if a man of your prestige could could help me to access the value of the diamonds. Perhaps in exhange for $1 000 000 you could take control of the diamonds for me. In order to to get the diamonds out of the country into your care I need an initial deposit of $500 000 to make good my plans.
I am contacting you with due sence of humanity that you will give it a sympathetic and mutual consideration.
I am honourably seeking your assistance in the following ways…”
167. How liked is Gordon Brown in Labour though? Destabilising Gordon Brown at that time was surely seen as a positive by the 50 or 60% who do not support Brown in the Labour party?
I think the interesting dynamic in any post election Labour leadership change will be the number of new MPs. Not just defeated Labour MPs but fresh ones in “Safe seats”.
164 two midgets added together
- that’s illegal in some countries
144 tim, it seems to me that Yorkshire and North East will be the key region for a leadership contender to look for support within the PLP. Support from Unite, Unison and other major unions is the other biggie. The three contenders from there being Ed Balls & the Milibands.
With Milburn, Byers and other Blairites leaving in North East the support of Nick Brown rises in importance.
I don’t get the impression David Miliband is “one of them”, more of a southern candidate and neither does David seem to have strong union support. Looks like it’s Ed or Ed.
160 SthLondon - Absolutely, we do need to consider the unions. We need some Labour insiders to help us on two questions:
1) Could Labour be mad enough to choose Ed Balls?
2) Would the key unions favour Ed Miliband over D Miliband?
Maybe Gabble could contribute something useful for a change, and answer on these…
171. MD
Purnell has since been very quite - He has not ruffled a feather IMO.
I dont think last summer will go against him at all - It should he had Balls IMO.
An interesting leadershiop for a defeated Labour party would be Purnell as leader and Caroline Flint as deputy leader.
171 - Whilst the new MP’s will be interesting, however you have to remember Labour’s electoral college.
MP’s only have 1/3rd of the vote, the same percentage as the unions and the ordinary members
I think the Unions will go for Balls.
The members? I don’t know, would be interesting to see how the likes of Tim and Henry G Manson would vote.
171. MD
Purnell has since been very quite - He has not ruffled a feather IMO.
I dont think last summer will go against him at all - It should he had Balls IMO.
An interesting leadership for a defeated Labour party would be Purnell as leader and Caroline Flint as deputy leader.
172. Tim B December 29th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
I wonder if “things” are in proportion with a midget or out of proportion?
172. I heard Snow White was being investigated for a similar reason. Engaging in sexual relations with seven miners.
178 - I know the answer to this
Most dwarfism is caused by achondroplasia. This means that everything grows normally except for the long bones, such as the bones of the arms and legs.
This is why achondroplasic dwarfs have normal sized heads and small arms and legs.
The Screaming Eagles December 29th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
Dont the MPs have to nominate though? I think the leftie from London failed to get enough nominations in 2007 to challange Brown?
Two things the Labour Leadership betters are ignoring.
1.Hung Parliament.
2.Alistair Darling.
179 - the seven dwarves were in bed feeling Happy, so Happy got out.
178 - I’ve had compliments and I’m no midget
176 The Screaming Eagles
I am very hazy on Labour leadership selection procedures. I know “the unions” have a third of the vote - but what does that mean in practice?
Does that mean that every union member who agrees to make political contributions gets a vote? Or that their leaders get to vote “on their behalf”? How are votes weighted between UNITE/UNISON etc? Is it based on amount of funding, or on number of union members, or number of union members paying a political contribution?
172
I was on holiday in Jamaica a couple of years ago and a short chap tried chatting me up - when I said ‘erm, no thanks’ he accused me of being heightist 
I was so ‘WTF?’ that I didn’t even LOL - bugger.
Some people seem to have lost the concept of ‘attraction’
172 - I heard Snow White was feeling sleepy. The other 6 were very angry.
Statistically speaking, only 1 out 7 dwarves is Happy.
184 - I believe it’s one man, one vote, the trade union leaders block vote died out back in 1993
29. I’m just saying that under FPTP, the lead matters more than the share (the swing is derived from the average change in the lead), and I’d be surprised if Segma didn’t predict the Canadian election more accurately than the others, despite them being quite off in aggregate for all parties.
Segma got the swing correct, which is all that usually matters under FPTP.
Seven dwarves jokes ~APPLAUSE~
Is Gordon Dopey?
178 plato
Delightful plan.
181 - They do, i think it’s somewhere between 10 to 20 % of MP’s have to nominate you, for you to be eligible to stand as Labour leader.
182 Darling, why as a contender you mean.
160 Sth London Nick - Cameron’s job was to be a change agent, free from the internecine warfare of the previous decade or so. A new face who could speak human but had support from sufficient MPs (in itself I would suggest a political achievement in opposition). Tory polling improved with his election and continues to measure his achievement.
176 What job is the next Labour leader’s - IMHO effective opposition, shoring up a defeated party, then preparing for power. Who would be the most effective at the despatch box? its Ed Balls, who doesn’t lack confidence in his ability. Miliband primus or bis don’t cut it.
182. Alistair Darling won’t have a seat.
174 - No they won’t choose Balls.
Your point 2) is what I was euding to at 144.
173 - My reading of the likely election result is that “how to win back the Midlands” would be the key regional decision.
Found out how the Labour leadership rules and system works. Very useful
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm
Martin - Destabilising Brown may have been popular in the country, he may be unpopular amongst Labour supporters, but doing what he did has removed Purnell from contention. Labour does not tolerate dissension like that. And lets not forget that Hezza never became leader.
TSE - The membership rump that Labour have seem more interested in attacking the Tories than presenting positive policies for the future. Therefore that would put Balls up there.
Tim - Of course all of this is based on a Tory win. As to Darling, he has to survive first and our Scottish contributors seem to suggest this not nailed on.
But lets consider what would happen with a Hung Parliament. Would Brown go? He may try and hang on (lets not forget that Sunny Jim stayed on for some time). For Labour any election contest will take them off the viable party front for a while. So if Cameron governs in the Salmond mould and dares the LibDems/Labour to vote him down, then goes rapidly whilst Labour’s new leader is trying to assert themselves, he may be able to increase his majority. If Brown hangs on, then there is no chance of a Labour victory I suspect.
If there is a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, then what happens next? Clegg will not want to support a Brown-led govt I believe, so they will have to get a new leader AND try and form an administration. All the time, there will be a feeling of drift and there in lies yet more danger for Labour…
187 The Screaming Eagles
In that case, I think it is unlikely that union support will swing behind Ed Balls. Smeargate Whelan and Dodgshon might be best mates with him, but I imagine the average union member feels the same contempt for him as the majority of the country.
195. You make the mistake in thinking the pendulm will swing back toward Labour. It could well be the case that the pendulm keeps swinging to the Tories until the next GE! It is a possibility, it may only be from Labour implosion rather than tories putting much vote share on but their is going to be a real problem for Labour.
196. Yes, one of the great mysteries of our age is how Labour managed to con the media into thinking they were introducing “One Member, One Vote” when they were doing no such thing.
196 - Good grief. You’d actually have to be Maggie and the current Labour leader to actually face a challenge under those rules.
193 - Depends on the size of the defeat.
If it’s a small defeat, which gives them the option of winning in 2014/15, I think the allure of power, will make Labour choose the person* the most likely to win in 2014/15
If it’s a defeat in Dockside Hooker territory, grab the popcorn, and watch the fun, as Labour turn on each other.
*Assuming they exist
I’m holding out for Stephen Timms.
Still no odds on Betfair!
197. SthLondon Nick December 29th, 2009 at 5:46 pm
True but Hezza did not get another bite of the cherry. Purnell potentially will have another bite of the cherry, he may not win but an interim leader may get leader of the opposition for a short time like Harriet Hatemen. To stand down after 2-3 years.
Snow White was a serial rapist,The Wicked Witch merely exposed her in The Mirror.
Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Stephen Timms = Spanner.
206. Martin Day: “Stephen Timms = Spanner.”
I smell your fear.
re 188. But do Canadian seat calculators work on the additive or the proportional method?
Do they have the same concept of uniform national swing? My guess is that they don’t.
Whatever it does seem like you are clutching at straws in your argument that the least accurate pollster is the one that will produce the best seat prediction.
BTW Rod - does the Kalman filter knock out all or most AR surveys on your calculations?
205. Did they reveal that “Snow White” is a nickname alluding to her capacious appetite for Colombia’s finest export?
193 - Ted. I’m not underestimating Cameron’s impact. They have gone from being nearly a rump to worrying over the size of victory in 4 years (This does not suggest it is in the bag, but I think is a fairly balanced reading of the polls). That is impressive and something that Blair did not have to achieve. In fact Cameron has grown into the job in a way I did not expect, so that has raised my opinion of him.
202 - Assuming a defeat, then the size will be interesting. With the SDP having effectively regrown under Blair inside the PLP then if they do get a sound thrashing and lurch left, could they split again? In fact, if you took the left-leaning parts of the LibDems and put them with the SDP-end of the Labour party would you have a viable 2nd party leaving rump left and centre parties behind? Remember that when they lost in 79 they faced a 40+ seat majority party opposite and then fall apart over the next few years, taking the best part of a decade after 83 to start to present a viable government. I actually think a small defeat is more dangerous. Because they will believe they can get back quickly, they will fail to analyse why they failed. Mind you, at times, the Tories managed to do the same after getting an absolute electoral pounding.
TC said “A Brit is in my eyes someone with a British passport whatever their skin tone or class.”
I never mentioned skin tone or class. I wrote “pakistani immigrant with a British Passport”.
That is why it isnt an issue for 99.9% of Brits. A Pakistani immigrant with a British passport with “occaisional sadness” was convicted of smuggling 5kg of Heroin.
‘Brits’ have more important concerns, like keeping their jobs, keeping their children safe from Islamic terrorism, Education standards, providing for their old age, University education, being able to afford a house, uncontrolled immigration, strain on services .
…and imported 3rd word problems of overpopulation, unemployment, islamic terrorism, ethnic strife, TB, people traders and unsafe uninsured drivers.
Sorry to switch tack, but there has been an assumption that LibDems will go Green if they get the chance and believe it to be a viable option. The ICM poll suggests otherwise:
CON 27%(+4), LAB 25%(-13), LDEM 11%(-5), GRN 35%(+14)
Looks like 1% to Green, 4% to Tory for me with most of the Green support coming from Labour…
160.Nick, IIRC, lots of very positive noises from the Unions regarding Ed Miliband at the time of the Conference season. That could be the key to him running and winning. I could David Miliband not running at all for the leadership because he no longer has the solid base with which to launch a leadership challenge. He has failed every test on that front in the last few years, why elect another proven disaster?
Ed Balls has not got the media intelligence, empathy or experience of trying to persuade people with solid arguments. He is Gordon Brown without even his most basic rudimentary political skills. He has still to make that really bad tempered interview that will make the news, so far he is just warming up. He must be the Tories dream choice for the Labour leadership.
209 AndrewG- Very good point. It will not have escaped the sharpest tools in the box that she gave her victims nicknames like ‘Happy’ ‘Sneezy’ and ‘Dopey’.
210 - Having read some articles/comments on Labourlist, arguing that Labour won it’s huge majorities in 1997 and 2001 in spite of Blair’s leadership, rather than because of his leadership, it will be fun.
209 - Shakira?
211 TC (“A Brit is in my eyes someone with a British passport whatever their skin tone or class.”) and his Leftie pals in Labour - is a dangerous fool.
The idea that dishing out passports makes a Brit is bizarre.
Perhaps if Hitler had been given a British passport he would have integrated and contributed to the economy, opening up a schnitzel and schnapps bar and running a nazi society.
Perhaps Osama bin Laden could be given a British passport he would be a ‘Brit’.
Perhaps giving Abu Hamza would make him a ‘Brit’.
No. It doesnt and those that suggest it must be ignored.
Speaking of bun-fights - the one between Devil’s Kitchen and Sunny Hundal is most amusing.
http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/12/more-classic-classery.html
You can tell how serious this is by the lack of swearing
For those who aren’t in the know, Mr Kitchen is now the Leader of the Liberatian Party [he went to Eton for those who care about these things - and was also a squatters rights activist in his youth].
Personally, I’m no fan of squatters but hey-ho, I did strange things in my youth too.
Take the test here to see if you agree with anything we think:
http://lpuk.org/pages/take-the-test.php
194 AndrewG
Edinburgh SW is only be going to be lost by Labour if the Tories manage to poll something like 22% in Scotland, and SNP are ahead of Labour here.
I wouldn’t put good money on that combination of opinion occurring.
Yet more league tables from Iain Dale!
218 - Mr Kitchen is a legend. Sunny Hundal on the other hand is a…
re 169 TSE if you’d have put my postcode into the Met Office’s forecast for any time today it would have told you to expect “Heavy Snow” from 9am onwards. In fact it should still be snowing heavily now. Reality - not a flake, in fact it’s only just started raining.
220, “…and by their position in Mr. Dale’s assorted league tables shall ye know them.”
I am confident of topping the best morris dancing space cannon engineer category.
The last time I saw seven dwarves at the same time I was too busy gazing in adoration at Sean Maguire to notice… although one of them was played by Big Mick.
222, some say the same people who work out Met Office forecasts work on Labour’s Budget predictions for debt, deficit and growth.
215 I digress re the scale of Blairs victories in 97 and 01- he ‘reached the parts others could’nt’,to misquote a famous lager ad.
I found myself pouring wikipedia yesterday,and looked back at John Smith -I am sure he would have won in 97 (and 01) but by a somewhat lesser margin
210 Surely anyone who remotely remembers the civil war in the early 80s that nearly destroyed the Labour Party will ensure that never,ever happens again,come what may in the 2010 GE
225 - They say met office forecasters and economists were put on the earth, to make astrologers look good.
John Prescott was put on earth to make Gordon brown look good.
- and he couldn’t even do that properly
225 Morris
I believe The Met Office is part of the Ministry Of Defence. This explains much.
It does not openly, publicly and regularly publish details of the accuracy of its forecasts. Until it does so, it will have all the credibility of your average Astrologer.
re 217 ken, William Joyce would probably have argued with you about the importance of a British passport. It cost him his life.
219. Even if Darling holds on, it would be an issue in a leadership election if a candidate had a vulnerable majority. That’s especially so if the Tories wind up with either no majority or just a slim one.
228 FWIW,as a party member in 1994,I did not vote for John Prescott as deputy leader,I went for Margaret Beckett instead
228 - I try and repress all things John Prescott.
225&227.TSE, absolute bang on the money! Their optimism about the temperatures up here is hilarious. Two temperatures for the whole of Scotland last night, both -4. It was -10 here early evening, -15 across the mountains, and Braemar got down to a rather chilly -18 last night. I swear they just dip their hand into a weather symbol lucky dip sometimes.
229, Morris Dancer is a rat: claiming victory since 1984!
217. ken wasabi December 29th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
What do you think does make someone British Ken?
231 Having said that,I know its a long,long time ago,but when Ted Heath became Tory leader in 1965,his seat was pretty marginal
218: Plato @ 18:08
I took the test and got two answers “wrong”. Here is the segment from the answer sheet for one of those questions.
“It is wrong for the police to retain the DNA of anyone not serving a prison sentence?
Your answer was illiberal
There is no reason why in a liberal society that the state should be allowed to steal the property of a person when they have not been convicted of any crime or are currently serving a prison sentence”
The standard of logic, coherent thought, and ability to express ideas shown in that segment suggests that The Libertarian Party should not be taken seriously.
gabble, is stephen timms the one that looks like plug from the bash street kids? If so he stands no chance, he is nowhere near photogenic enough, he makes Gordon resemble George Clooney.
231 - Darling will be fine, no one serious is expecting a swing of 8% Lab to Tory in Scotland.
239, Timms’ problem isn’t his face, it’s his lack of quality.
Mind you, if Labour want Brown as leader…
233 I always loved the moment when Prezza started his 97 conference speech by saying,with a serious face:
‘Now we can’t be too triumphalist at this week’s conference’
Prescott’s face breaks into a broad grin;
‘OH SOD IT,YES WE CAN!!!’
This was at c 11.00am-I howled with laughter-and pleasure
242 - Sadly, when news of Prescott’s affair became public, my mind was loaded up with some truly awful images.
Something to do with this picture.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01396/prescott_1396703c.jpg
231. David Herdson December 29th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
“especially so if the Tories wind up with either no majority or just a slim one”
A subtle and good point
If there were to be a second election in just a few months then his seat could be very dicey and there wouldn’t be time for him to gracefully/covertly sidle into a safer one. As leader he could no doubt gatecrash another seat if he chose, but it would make for quite embarassing headlines.
239. d(too)
Timms was 33/1 for next Labour leader, in 2007. I wish I could find that 500/1.
243 Gordon Bennett,the late (and much loved) Les Dawson would take his hat off to that piccy!
Labour leadership election rules from the House of Commons library:
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/briefings/snpc-03938.pdf
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5669311/its-not-just-the-bankers-who-will-be-hanged.thtml
Scorched earth….
239 And Eric Pickles as Smiffy (of the Bash Street Kids)?
226. Serious splits tend only to happen to major parties if there is an acute an irresolvable policy schism. That can happen relatively easily in government when some decisions become unavoidable or were simply badly judged. It’s less likely in opposition and very much less likely to happen as a first strike option - the divisions that lead to the SDP breaking off predated the actual split by many years.
In any case, there’s a much easier solution for any on the Labour right who are unhappy with their party’s direction and that’s to defect to the Lib Dems, which is essentially what the SDP did, though it took them seven years.
That said, Labour still harbours collective memories of the MacDonald split, never mind the SDP one, which is probably one reason why we’ve not seen any MPs crossing the floor despite the government’s unpopularity. It’s one thing to be an oppositionist within the movement; it’s quite another to defect.
238 Agreed - that does sound rather peculiar
In the broad scheme of things, I’d rather be a libertarian than a socialist.
239
:LOL:
248 - So JP Morgan are expecting a Labour Government. or the Tories to be the same as Labour.
Or just sabr rattling.
Which do you think, as you posted the link.
143 And there’s the rub. Brighton Pavilion is 95% white, yet barely half the population described themselves as Christian in the Census. Secularity is the best predictor of support for the Green Party. Added to that (and connected) you have large numbers of quite poorly paid professional people (University workers), a big student population, and a big gay population, and you have a banker for the Greens. Brighton Pavilion is Britain’s San Francisco.
FPT, so we’ve had what is probably the lowest average annual growth rate of any decade since the 1940s. Lower even the 1970s. How can I thank Labour enough for this.
FPT also, I doubt that imposing trade sanctions against any country that proposes to execute a national of an EU country would do anything to foster a common EU identity. EU nationals who trade with such countries would be infuriated (and try to evade such sanctions) and the EU would be treated as a laughing stock worldwide. I can’t see any country wanting to impose them over such a (comparitively) small issue, And, it’s absolutely clear, that there are plenty of people in EU States who regard it as entirely appropriate that their fellow nationals who commit serious crimes abroad should pay the price.
244. What odds on two GEs next year???
Oh,and William Hague could be Baby Face Finlayson,whilst my fav kids comic is happily recalled!
246 - Poor Tracey Temple, having to look at that happy face
231 David Herdson
No disagreement about that, but I see it as an irrelevance in any case. It’s long been my opinion that the WLQ means that no MP from a Scottish constituency will ever again hold major office in the UK after Brown/Darling. There might be an exception for a Ministry which deals wholly with UK affairs, but certainly not for the post of elected monarch which the PM has become, and who will determine policy in English domestic affairs.
230 Ah yes, 1946. William Joyce, that member of the British Union of Facists and then worked for the Nazis during WW2.
230 William Joyce, a traito,r indeed.
But that is old history. Before Labour started mass immigration and issuing passports to hide the number of illegal immigrants, increase the Labour vote and reduce the number of ‘Brits’.
Abu Hamza had a British Passport. He was not a ‘Brit’.
No. Your view is rejected and Labour will be removed from office and from the political map.
How ironic that the totalitarian Chinese regime represents more accurately the values and wishes of the British people than does our own government.
Most Brits have no problem with the Chinese executing a drug smuggler. The hysterical fuss coming from Brown, Cameron, Clegg and the BBC is utterly at odds with majority opinion.
The arrogance, hypocrisy and moral posturing of the political class leads it ever deeper into public contempt.
208. Any electoral system is subject to the “uniform swing” simplification. It appears they use it in Canada, with the proviso that regional swings have a bigger impact than in the UK, so treating the regions separately makes sense there.
http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/wp-content/themes/cutline-3-column-right-11/Research%20Method%20for%20Seat%20Projection%20Model.pdf
At the moment I ignore ARS and BPIX completely. Should they be admitted to membership of the BPC I will include them.
238. HurstLlama December 29th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Well, the question says one thing and their gloss on the answer says another (in prison vs convicted or in prison).
Also not sure about describing a record of someone’s DNA as their property - though I believe naturally occurring genetic code can be patented, so why not?
250 Thank you for a very interesting and thought-evoking response
254 The rest are Druid and Jedi - if the GE fell on 21 June, Brighton Pavilion would go Tory
Do keep up
230 I suspect that William Joyce would have gone down whether or not he possessed a British passport.
He certainly wasn’t guilty of treason as anyone would have considered it pre-War.
260 - You do realise Abu Hamza was given a British Passport under a tory government?
260 - Margaret Thatchers Govt granted Abu Hamza his passport.
Despite an invalid (geddit) marriage.
I think, Tim, that your party has and is clearly doing serious damage to this country.Whether it is sabre rattling, the fact they feel the need to do it speaks volumes about what your people are doing.
267/268 - Well done for joining the herd Tim, once you’re in, we’ll never let you leave.
I was less than impressed with the quality of BBC/Met Office forecasts when I visited Callander Tourist Information Office who passed on pictogram showing sunny intervals. Three hours later heavy rain poured down and contributed to landslips at Glen Ogle. I missed out on the free helicopter ride back to Lochearnhead.
It would help if the forecast included a % probability of rain, snow etc.
268 et al. Imagine being Abu Hamza’s bottom-wiper (now that his hook’s been confiscated).
I’d let him keep the hook, but bar him from using toilet paper.
272 - Personally, i’d drop him in the middle of Camp Bastion, and say, you want jihad, you can have Jihad
re 237 Patrick WHF… and indeed the blessed Margaret only had a majority of 3911 when she became leader in 1975.
273, you’re too kind. I’d lock him in a room with 10 gallons of body chocolate and a Graham Norton who has been pumped full of viagra.
R5L paper preview. Jack Straw going on attack against Tory spending on campaign. “Bankrolled by Belize”. Article in tomorrow’s Independent…
266. He was guilty of something which ordinarily was subject to a 10/- fine - making a false declaration on a passport, although it’s unclear whether he even knew it was false at the time.
What I don’t understand about the Joyce case is why the Defence just didn’t say he destroyed it immediately upon arriving in Germany in August 1939. The document was never produced in evidence…
275 - So Lord Ashcroft’s marginals strategy is working well then
271. dr spyn December 29th, 2009 at 6:39 pm
“It would help if the forecast included a % probability of rain, snow etc.”
I was once told by someone who worked at the Met Office that the idea of including numeric probabilties in weather forecasts, as they do in many other countries, is controversial in UK forecasting circles. Some push for it; others say the public will only be confused.
277 Their attack strategy is rather obvious isn’t it.
After all those yrs of crafting the dark arts of spin, one would think it’d be a bit less conspicuous by now
I find it interesting this speculation about Cameron not getting a majority.
I suppose Cameron could always go down the National Government root, something which Brown cannot really do with this rotten current parliament after expenses. A Cameron led National Government would open up some interesting opportunities for the country including a chance to put the years of Labour failure behind it.
A National Government could for instance have Nick Clegg as Duchy of Lancaster and Vince Cable in the business secretary role. They would not warrant any more than that at Cabinet level given proportion of the vote and likely seats. Indeed some Labour figures could serve in a Cameron led National Government if the result is inconclusive in the commons, someone like Milburn or even byers or hutton?
Labour could then have its civil war whilst the grown ups govern in the interests of the country.
266 - William Joyce is now buried not far away from my granny
He was many (terrible) things but traitor was not one of them.
260 The citizens of the United Kingdom were happy enough in 1939-45 to consider Punjabis, Sikhs, Australians, New Zealanders, Kenyans etc etc as fellow Brits. The various British Armies of WWI and WWII were drawn from across the British Empire and British troops came in all colours and origins.
277 - I see William Hague is still hiding from interviewers since Hammond dobbed hiim in.
Come on Willie, are you in Tora Bora?
282 - He’s go on holiday with Mandy.
283 - go = gone
One for the wine fans amongst us
Government’s wine cellar worth £870,000
The Government’s wine cellar now has 40,000 bottles stored in its hospitality cellars worth more than £870,000 , new figures have revealed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/6885548/Governments-wine-cellar-worth-870000.html
267 Yep and it doesnt change a thing.
An immigrant with a British Passport does not a ‘Brit’ make.
Britishness can be earned, for example loyal service in HM Forces. Supporting Islamic fundamentalism & drug smuggling does not qualify.
281 But now that the Empire is long gone, how many British people (who don’t have family ties) really have much fellow-feeling towards the Indian sub-Continent?
286 - How about working for 33yrs in the NHS? Does that make someone a Brit?
282 Last I heard, China. Trying to undo some of the damage caused by our school boy FS.
280 It is surely plausible a minority Cameron Tory govt may ’share ideas’ and informally co-operate with the Lib Dems ,for a year or two at least- I would not expect the Lib Dems to vote down a Queen’s Speech in said circumstances
289 - Hague is in China today?
288 Depends. But mostly the NHS is a Labour job creation scheme.
291. before xmas.
re 286 ken you’ve not read the statement on the inside front cover then? Not a patch on what it used to be in the old days IMHO.
290. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but has despaired of Gordon Brown December 29th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
I think it could go beyond that, if Labour implode into a civil war then parodixically a National Government could be a way for the LDs to supplant Labour as the party of the Left. A National Government would give the LD Ministerial experience and exposure.
I dont buy into the Next Government will be unpopular because they will have to take tough decisions. People know that and they know who to blame, Labour and Brown.
265. I predict that ‘Sith’ will make an appearance on the 2011 census.
293 Most people I know avoid the NHS. Many NHS staff arent their to serve her majesty, the country or her people. They are there to earn money.
Certainly the way they treat expectant mothers and OAPs is a disgrace.
The only people I know who love the NHS are liberals with BUPA.
OK, here’s my stab at the probabilities for Next Labour Leader, assuming that the contest is post-GE and the result is a majority or minority Conservative government (i.e. no major upsets from what the polls have been telling us):
David Miliband 40%
Ed Miliband 30%
Jon Cruddas 8%
Alan Johnson 5%
Harriet Harman 5%
Ed Balls 5%
Alistair Darling 2%
James Purnell 2%
Lord Mandelson 1%
Any other 2%
Anyone care to give their view (remembering they must add up to 100%!)
298. What happened to Burnham?
294 We have a Labour government. Labour’s words are cheap.
Aside from cheapening Britishness, Labour has also cheapened our Education, Political System and the Family.
298 You’re forgetting Stephen Timms, apparently.
299 Rod - Lost in the noise (in 2010), but I might be wrong on that.
298.Richard, impressive. Me, its Straw before a GE if the Cabinet elect, with Darling the outside chance. And after a GE in a proper full on beauty contest, Ed Miliband with roles for Cruddas and Purnell in there somewhere.
297. ken wasabi December 29th, 2009 at 7:01 pm
I think the NHS especially Hospitals are very poor, not just in terms of service but hygene and environment. You are a number not a person. The problem of huge governmental organisations down the years.
I dont buy into the need to recruit overseas doctors either - they are needed overthere more than here. We have plenty of folk intellegent enough to be doctors as usual this country does down its own talent and embraces folk from overseas. I do not understand the way anything British is seen as being wrong or inferer.
297 - Well my grandfather served in His Majesty’s British Indian Army back in WW2, I have his medals on display on my house.
Then, after WW2, he moved over here, and worked for the NHS.
So, I’mt trying to work out, if he’d pass the Ken test.
305 read the posts above.
Loyal service in HM Forces yes.
Earning money in the NHS no.
New thread up
re 304 Martin the reason we need to raid the third world for doctor and nurses that they need considerably more desperately than us is because we train nowhere near enough of our own.
Italy 4.2 doctors per thousand
France 3.4
Germany 3.4
USA 2.3
UK 2.2
298 Richard
Those odds look about right. The big imponderable is Cruddas. If he holds his seat in Dagenham and Rainham, I would rate his chances about 20%, and scale down the Ms accordingly. I suspect he won’t hold D&R though, so your current estimate of 8% looks about right.
On election nite, I will lump on Cruddas IF it looks like he has held on.
298.
David Miliband 22%
Ed Miliband 28%
Jon Cruddas 8%
Alan Johnson 3%
Harriet Harman 18%
Ed Balls 9%
Alistair Darling 2%
James Purnell 4%
Andy Burnham 3%
Jack Straw 1%
Lord Mandelson 1%
Any other 1%
re 306 ken with respect you don’t know what you’re talking about. I have colleagues who have had immense problems with the Home Office about their right to remain whilst finishing off their training. Some have had problems with their children who were born here as well.
295. I think the prospect of a national government is an interesting one, worth serious consideration. Cameron has clearly positioned himself to lead such a government if necessary. It could shake up the political kaleidoscope in just the way we need. I don’t think Cameron’s new year address was given sufficient analysis; it was just treated to knee-jerk refutation by Clegg and the LibDems. A shallow response to a much more nuanced stance than it was given credit for. Cameron is not just the change agent for the Conservatives, I genuinely think he wants to reconfigure the shape of the party political landscape. The kind of stuff Clegg talks about but does not deliver on.
Of course Brown intended to govern from his big tent, before retreating to the bunker …
Back to work and back to be revolted by Gordon Brown’s government being “angry” at the chinese.
Two problems I can think of
1) Gordon and flunkies e.g milliband have spent the past 13 years desperately sucking up to the Chinese regardless of their human rights record(actually knowing Labour’s authoritarian ways they were probably swapping surveillance state techniques)
2) However they decided to spend last week insulting the Chinese in a failed attempt to look green.
Given the long term obedience of the UK under Labour inevitably the Chinese just laughed and I am sure sending the ambassador to see Ivan Lewis/ David Milliband had them quaking.
The sad truth is we have fallen so far in International standing under Labour that dictatorships like China and Iran now just laugh at us(as do the Americans, German’s and French). The lesson is if you are a British Citizen don’t dare and travel anywhere remotely hostile as our Government is such a joke they will be of no help whatsoever.
Of course the other Lesson is being a member of the EU held no sway whatsoever, with China as they knew France/Germany etc would not back Britain.
Gabble:
“it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is being penalised simply for having a low level of debt in the first place.”
So what your saying is that the previous Conservative government passed on low levels of public debt that Labour have subsequently massivley increased?
Of course public debt is only one aspect of debt. There’s also corporate and personal debt. Perhaps you’d care to give us a list of those among th G7 countries.
I’m curious as to why you also take pride that we’ve had an economic bust without having a boom first. That’s rather like having the worst gangover ever without the pleasure of the drinking first.
Hmmm, I don’t remember doing that. Another person with the same name, perhaps…?
DK
Just a quick note on this. I had the Greens down to win no seats, and bet on them getting fewer than two. After Norwich North, I feel fairly confident of that, but this poll is no surprise. Since Dr David Bull stepped down as the Tory candidate this has been Caroline Lucas’ for the taking.
Mike. From memory, you said almost as soon as they started polling here, that Angus Reid complied with all the requirements of the BPC and had applied for membership. How can it possibly take months for the BPC to make a decision? It could make a big difference to the media attitude to AR, if they were elected.Even Rod Crosby would include them in his calculations!