Was it the the PBR that changed the climate?
December 20th, 2009
Newspaper front pages December 10
Is the Bob Worcester analysis on the nail?
Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, posted this on the overnight thread.
“What’s going on, the polls seem all over the place? One says a lead of 6 and another a lead of 17. ” I’ve been hearing that for many a year. So what is going on? Part of the answer is ‘events, dear boy, events” And the Pre-Budget Review (PRB) was not just an event on Wednesday the 9th of December, it was a big event.
Another part of the answer is the media’s fixation on headlining the lead, both in print and in the broadcast media, rather than the shares, especially the share for the opposition. Nine out of the ten reported so far this month have had the Conservatives at or over the magic 40% level, where they’ve been hovering since the beginning of July.
Yet three polls had leads were of 17% including this month’s Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, and three, ICM (9%) and YouGov (9%) and Populus (8%), below 10%. Yet none, not one of the ten, have varied in their share of Tory vote by more than three percent, polls’ statistical ‘margin of error’.
Third, they all ‘weight’ their ‘raw’ data in various ways, the way economists have different models on which they base their estimates. The best way to see the impact of this is to compare the ‘raw’ data, and then you’d know the basis that they use to adjust their figures to balance the inherent anomalies (explained in full at the Ipsos-MORI site. All the pollsters (except BPIX) have similar website detailed explanations, although some others are not fully transparent in their methodology, not willing to reveal their ‘raw’ findings.
A fourth part is that what the media really want is the polls to be able to forecast the outcome of an election six months or more, yet none of us have crystal balls, read tea leaves or palms, at least not to my knowledge.
If we sent our interviewers out to a carefully selected sample of constituencies across the country and got each one to stand in the highest point in the constituency and precisely noon read the carefully calibrated thermometers we armed them with, and struck the average temperature of the country in that way, and then to do the same the next day, no one would expect exactly the same average temperature. Yet public opinion is more variable than the weather tomorrow, much less than six months away.
From a six point Tory lead before the Pre-Budget Review to this month’s 17, a swing of 5.5% in one week, which could see the Tories in with a landslide.
Currently the Conservatives are on 43%, 26% say they would be voting for Labour if the election were held tomorrow, and 20% say they’d vote Liberal Democrats. That’s five or six people in a hundred changing their mind about who they think they’ll vote for before and after the PRB. UKIP gets four% and BNP two%, the Greens 3%, and others 2%.
The impact of the PBR moved the economic optimism in the country from last month’s 46% believing the economy was going to improve in the next 12 months falling precipitously to 32%. At the same time, the satisfaction level of Gordon Brown fell another 10 points, to just 28% and the government also by 10 points, to 21%.
The impact of the PRB is felt by everyone. Most people, 69%, say that which party wins the election is important to them personally. If they weren’t paying attention before, they are now.
Overall, the percentage of people who expect the economy to improve has fallen from a remarkable 46% expecting the economy to improve in the next year, to 32%. What is interesting politically is who has fallen the furthest. Last month 41% of the youngest third of the electorate, those between 18 and 34, said they expected an upturn; this month it’s still 41%.
But of those 55 and over, there’s been a 20 point drop, from 50% optimistic, to 30%. This is a vitally important finding to all the parties, for those 55 and older have four times the voting power of the young. There are twice as many of them and they are twice as likely to vote. Other big drops came among men (-18) rather than women (-11), among the working class and those in the Midlands, and especially with those on a mortgage, who fell nearly by half, from 50% optimists to 27%.
The turnout is the key to the outcome of the next election. No election saw turnout under 70% from 1945 to 1997. Yet in 2001, only 59% of electors in Great Britain voted; in 2005 61%. In 1959 and again in February 1974 watershed elections, the turnout was over 78%. To get to that level, the reluctant Labour supporters who’ve sat on their hands in the last two elections would have to turn out by the thousands, especially in the marginal seats.
Even to get a turnout of 60% would require a massive increase in a now relatively apathetic base of Labour abstainers. For while a turnout of just 50% would return a Tory majority over all other parties of over 100, a 78% turnout would see a Labour majority of about 25. At about 60%, a 40% Tory, 30% Labour, 20% LibDems, 10% others, would give the Conservatives a majority of around 20 seats over all other parties.
Is fear of the Cameron/Osborn team enough to energise the Labour reluctants?
Whatever, last month’s poll findings certainly put the frighteners into the Tories, hope into Labour’s minds, and heart into the fond hope of the Liberal Democrats that there was a window of opportunity to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. Last month the margin was closing, Post PBR it looks like it’s Cameron for No. 10 without a massive and effective effort from the Labour campaign team. But a week, never mind a month, is a long time in politics.
Thanks Bob - it’s always great to welcome you to PB and the detail you provide is fascinating. The point you always make about focussing on the shares rather than the lead is one which we should all heed. It’s so easy for a headline to put the emphasis on that which can be misleading.
Looking back over the past fortnight the polling oddities seem to have been the last Sunday YouGov poll in the Sunday Times and Tuesday’s ICM in the Guardian. Both showed the Labour share increasing and it looked as though the PBR had had little impact.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
oops.
Er, as I was saying…
“337. In truth, no poll should be reported in isolation, since individually they are basically junk. After enduring thread after thread here I am coming around to the view that polls should be banned, as they are in some countries.
We are obsessed by them, don’t understand what they are, and invariably draw the wrong conclusions…”
Mike, can you point out on this graph exactly where the “change of climate” is?
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/hp/kalman.png
2. Anyhow, I’ll catch up later. Yawn.
ZZZZZzzzz
re 3. I don’t accept the basis of your chart Rod and as I explain above last weekend’s YouGov poll and the Guardian’s ICM survey are starting to look like the oddities. The latter, as Mark Senior highlighted, had an abnormal proportion in the sample saying they had voted Labour in 2005.
I know that your mind cannot cope with any information that detracts from your repeated prediction of a hung parliament and that’s how you filter everything.
It’s good to see Sir Bob posting on pb.com and to get his take on the polls. I’m not sure I can agree with his analysis of higher turnouts being better for Labour though. Still, not long now, tick tock.
Yesterday’s threads were a hoot to read with both sides swapping positions and mostly with good heart. I’m a bit concerned though, from a betting perspective, on how these rumours can shift the spreads and cost real people real money. I only have a wee flutter here and there but some of you are spread betters and that must be pretty scary.
4, OK, just so we’re clear about what you’re saying:
Mike, can you point out on this table exactly where the “change of climate” is?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
Seeing as the Beeb gets a mention at the end of the last thread I thought I’d post a link to their Poll Tracker which they seem to update from time to time. Currently last updated on the 15th Dec. It’ll be interesting to see if it stays at that until the New Year.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm
Re 6. Read Bob Worcester’s piece.
Mike is there anyway I can stop my old LTL moniker appearing in the name box? Is there’s a .dat file of sumfink I can edit. It’s doing me head in.
I’m using firefox.
There are 850 billion reasons why Labour is doomed with Gordon Brown in charge.
Brits are far from perfect but most of us understand that running up vast debts to pay for things we can’t afford is madness.
Dour Calvinist? More like drunken sailor on leave.
Here is a long background article from Bob Worcester, but nothing to explain how he managed to get a majority for Labour in London in his last poll, based on a sample of 50-odd people.
(They’re all odd in London of course)
The narrative is the best predictor of trends in polling. So what happened to the current Hung Parliament Narrative on this occasion?
The PBR has overriden the current media narrative, according to Bob, which is interesting, especially as the bad economic news could turn up in tsunamic quantities before an election, which explains Labour’s haste to call one.
That said, this is what I wrote earlier about the narrative, which promises to re-assert itself shortly after this brief aberration.
Mike, the key to understanding polls is the narrative, which is usually to be found as only a short paragraph in news reports, but that is what tells you is being planned, and has the horrible habit of being the most effective prediction device.
The narrative, as put out with this poll in newspapers, hasn’t changed even a notch. The Hung Parliament is alive and well.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2009/12/hung-parliament-returns-conservative.html
Possibly the most ignored aspect so far concerning the forthcoming GE is the likely National Turnout Percentage. Indeed, so far only one bookmaker, Ladbrokes (no surprise there then), has even bothered to offer a market in this important regard, which is likely to play a crucial part in determining the result.
Ladbrokes are offering 3 x 5% bands between 55% and 70% with 2 further bands, one above and one below this range.
I suggested here very recently that over the past 20 years Tory GE victories tend to be accompanied by significantly and consistently higher turnouts (always >70%) than when Labour has been the winner.
Leaving aside if one can the negative impact on turnout resulting from the expenses scandal, then backing the two highest bands, i.e. 65%-70% (2/1) and >70% (2.5/1) appears to offer the most attractive betting opportunities.
Combining both bands to achieve an equal return produces combined odds of 0.62/1, whilst backing the >70% but to include a break-even saver in the event of a 65%-70% outcome, produces effective odds on the >70% band of 1.67/1- decidedly tasty imho, in view of a seemingly likely Tory victory.
Perhaps Mike could provide any information he has on the turnout levels as currently being predicted by the pollsters. In fact it seems to me that this would make an interesting and potentially profitable thread in its own right for him to comment upon.
OK, Labour shares since the PBR, compared to each pollster’s last share before the PBR:
Angus Reid +1, +2
Ipsos-MORI -5
ICM +2
YouGov/BPIX +3, +4, +1
ComRes -3
(Feel free to correct if I’ve got any of these wrong.)
Even if you ignore the ICM one because you think it’s got a funny sample, at this point this doesn’t look like a big change coinciding with, or even coming after, the PBR.
Obviously if you look at the MORI poll in isolation the theory seems much more reasonable, and it’s not unthinkable that MORI are picking up a real trend in something that other pollsters aren’t getting, and _that_ could be down to the PBR. Certainty to vote?
13. Or the PBR provides a bit of a face-saver after the howling 6% poll.
From the Observer report on the poll it appears that the stories of a January launch for the Conservative campaign came from Douglas Alexander & Labour. Was amused by the last line where Alexander said “Labour would rely far more on modern methods of campaigning, learned from the Obama campaign in the US, and said the initial indications were that the Tories were behind the times.”
Aside from trying to stifle a giggle where Labour and the web are concerne, it seems Labour misunderstand the part that blogs, social networking and YouTube play in supporting the message.
The Obama campaign was built around an attractive disruptive central figure, someone who embodied change, eloquent, talking of bringing the people together. He was the opposition to those in power who had failed.
In Brown Labour have an unattractive central figure, embodying continuity, capable of putting together speeches that rouse the committed but not eloquent who is putting class divisiveness central to his message. He is the person who failed.
11 “Here is a long background article from Bob Worcester, but nothing to explain how he managed to get a majority for Labour in London in his last poll, based on a sample of 50-odd people.”
Indeed and this applies equally a number of other oddities in that poll as identified by PBers, which appeared to justify at least some detailed explanation by Bob Worcester in his commentary thereon.
Apols if I missed it, but have we yet been informed of the dates of the field work of this latest MORI survey - is it indeed at least a week old and if so why (preferably without reiterating the same rehearsed story referring The Observer only being published on a Sunday)?
It seems to me that Bob Worcester is awarded an extraordinary degree of deference each time he appears on PB.com ….. why?
I am one of those who called it diametrically wrong, but on the other hand I am not one of those who Sold Tory Seats for £500 per Seat.
From a professional ‘outsider’ as opposed to amateur ‘insider’ point of view, the Mori poll was very reassuring. It tells us two things.
1.Mori are not leaking the results in advance to the Spread firms.
2.Nobody knows anything !
I find both the above incredibly heart-warming.You like to think you are playing in a zero-sum game.That dramatic move from SPIN prior to the publication of the ARS poll convinced me that something fishy was afoot and tat somebody knew something.
I am delighted to have been proven wrong.
12 - there are all sorts of paradoxes as far as turnout is concerned. It is almost certainly true that all other things being equal, higher turnout aids the Labour share of the vote (which is, of course, not the same as saying that a high turnout results in a high Labour share). However aiding the Labour share of the vote does not automatically aid the Labour share of the seats.
It seems to me that if one wants to use polls to predict seats the most sensible route would be to weight the results to the same turnout as at the last election. (this is assuming that different types of voters treat the “1-10 scale” in the same way, which I find slightly dubious).
On the general claim of Conservatives doing better in high turnout elections this could be explained by examining the motivation levels of voters. Labour voters generally need far more motivating to get them out to vote, and it is therefore possible that they only come out when they perceive a big threat of Conservative Govt. Basically they turnout when Labour are in trouble - and Labour being in trouble means that many of the voters in the middle who actually decide elections under FPTP are voting Conservative. Hence, high turnout=high likelihood of Conservative Govt.
17 - URW, the rumour itself could be fishy but as you say at your point #1 they aren’t leaking so buyer( or seller ) beware
Peter from Putney @16, I think you’re being a bit unfair to MORI there. You’re always going to have some crazy sub-samples in a poll (since the subsamples have teensy sample sizes and the pollsters don’t try to weight them). And we get the polling information for free, so it’s hardly fair to complain about the polling companies taking a bit of time to sell them to the highest bidder.
That said, if it does turn out that not only the changes in the shares, but also the Gordon Brown satisfaction ratings, are explicable by the relative numbers of past Labour voters in the sample, Bob Worcester will be due a festive, hearty WTF for not mentioning it in his article…
BTW, is anyone else polling for economic optimism, and if so are they getting the same November to December change that MORI are getting?
Peter from Putney @16, I think you’re being a bit unfair to MORI there. You’re always going to have some crazy sub-samples in a poll (since the subsamples have teensy sample sizes and the pollsters don’t try to weight them). And we get the polling information for free, so it’s hardly fair to complain about the polling companies taking a bit of time to sell them to the highest bidder.
That said, if it does turn out that not only the changes in the shares, but also the Gordon Brown satisfaction ratings, are explicable by the relative numbers of past Labour voters in the sample, Bob Worcester will be due a festive, hearty WTF for not mentioning it in his article…
BTW, is anyone else polling for economic optimism, and if so are they getting the same November to December change that MORI are getting?
Is the figure of around 1,000 people sampled in a poll statistically likely to give satisfactory results? IIRC Stuart Dickson mentioned recently that in Sweden (which has about the same population as London), pollsters use much larger samples. What is the effect of sample size on accuracy?
There is, obviously, a trade off, in that pollsters are commercial organisations, and it would be more expensive to interview more people and to analyse their responses. Clearly, the media who are their customers are not exactly flush with cash either. Accuracy and economy are opposing forces here. They presumably think the 1,000 sample is accurate enough, given the magic the pollsters then work on the raw data, and affordable. I would be interested in the views of those who are au fait with the whole process.
Given that the three nations of Great Britain are now so politically different from each other, especially Scotland and England (I know much less about Wales), I very much wish we could see separate polls in each of them on a regular basis. The tiny regional samples of GB-wide polls give a very unreliable picture of Scottish opinion, despite Stuart’s heroic efforts to keep abreast of them, and, equally, I think the totally different pattern of seats and voting in Scotland can only muddy the waters for the main Labour/Conservative battle in England.
OT - where are the blummin gritters?
I live on a hll and the layer of snow has frozen, we always used to get the road salted but not this winter. My plans for today were to help the local economy. Hubby wll be pleased, so not a total loss.
17 URW - it also told us that perhaps one or other (or conceivably both) the two most recent Mori polls may have been somewhat quirky in certain aspects, since it is difficult to reconcile the two over such a short period of time.
How does one recover ones bearings ? For me this is simple.
First,look at the two key markets on Betfair. These two are ‘Most Seats’ and ‘Overall Majority’. Both of these have swung back to the Tories and could swing even further.NOM is no longer hot, LAB Most Seats at 7.6 is with us no longer and a LAB Overall looks like a bad joke.
Second, you must look at the two Spread firms and particularly when both are up and running.That does not apply at the moment although SPIN are seemingly unchanged.I fully expect Tory Seats to rise and LAB Seats to fall.
Thirdly, and this is for professionals only.Consult the side markets on BF and the Seat Band markets with the bookies.Both of these are slow to react but when they do it invariably means something.
For example,I was the second to know about the sad demise of the SNP a couple of months ago.The first to know was the chap who took my money !
I got it back.
re 13. This was a headline on an article which was almost entirely written by Bob Worcester.
What prompted it was the paragraph I highlighted -
“The impact of the PRB is felt by everyone. Most people, 69%, say that which party wins the election is important to them personally. If they weren’t paying attention before, they are now.
Kristin
In Firefox click Tools, Options, Privacy, Show Cookies.
Find and delete the cookie folder called politicalbetting.com
26: Any idea whether MORI have asked the “Most people, 69%, say that which party wins the election is important to them personally” question before, and if so what they got? Hard to draw any conclusions from it without knowing that…
test - thanks Gadfly, I’d just cleared the lot out previously..
test
Kristin
You may find that Firefox still present LTL as a drop down option if you clear your name and then click within a blank Name (required) field.
If so, click on the LTL option to highlight it, then press Delete
25 URW -After the MORI poll, I had expected Betfair’s odds against a NOM to lenghten appreciably and layed accordingly.
OK, it’s still early days, but the 3/1 odds currently on offer to back such an outcome is a very long way from the 4/1 available just a couple of months ago, yet we are that such closer to the GE, with a seemingly substantial Tory lead still in place, certainly in relation to their 40%+ share of the vote.
“If so, click on the LTL option to highlight it, then press Delete”
Make that hover over the LTL option rather than click on
Thanks Bob for an interesting piece.
It’s always nice to hear from a professional poster. Of course it’s also nice to hear from posters who follow the psephological equivalent of wetting their finger and sticking it in the air, but as a punter, I prefer your methods.
All the best.
PtP
24 Interesing typo there. In line two, ‘poster’ should of course be ‘pollster’!
It’s early. And I got work to do.
24 PfP.My job is to make money from political betting whatever happens..even extreme polls.
This includes taking advantage of inefficiencies in parallel markets and almost parallel markets and beating the crowd to an obvious movement.
My job got infinitely harder with the closure of Spreadfair and the draconian measures most of the bookmakers have taken since the credit crunch.
Inefficiencies still exist and some moves are easy to spot but there are (fortunately) far easier markets than the political ones.
35 And 24 should be 34. I give up.
15. The reason for Dougie Alexander’s words is that the cupboard is empty - more spin from Labour “modern methods of campaigning” mean on-line and cheap (you can have expensive on-line campaigning too if you want to pay google enough ! )
Both parties keep an eye on the poster site bookings - it’s hard to keep quiet. So Labour know about the scheme. But they don’t have enough money to keep up with the tories and have to save their money until cyclops screws up enough courage to call the election.
36 “but there are (fortunately) far easier markets than the political ones.”
URW - you’re surely not referring to Big Brother, X Factor, Strictly or, the Grand-Daddy of them all in terms of unpredictability …..(drum roll) …..SPOTY? I think in future, I’d prefer to take my chances on the blacks and reds or even back stjohn’s STJOHN picks!
37 PtP.I have rumbled your little game. You work it in tandem with PfP, nicking a saucepan lid each time an early riser confuses the two of you.
7. Kristin - There seems to be another golden rule - the polls showing the best results for Labour get the most media coverage. No mention of Mori or YouGov in R4s ‘what the papers say’. Very different from last week. And it can’t be argued they aren’t interesting enough for the press. The turnabout is surely newsworthy.
38. I am sure the Tories are really worried that they don’t have access to the same “modern methods” as Labour in the coming campaign. They are trembling with fear at the electoral genius that is, Wee Dougie!
Oh, wait…
22 FergusMac
For populations of more than 20,000 it doesn’t fluctuate too much until you get to the millions (as here).
Assume a voting-age population of 45,000,000 people. A sample of just 1,068 people will give you a poll with an average margin of error of +3%-. If you wanted to reduce that to +2%- you’d need to poll 2,401 people. To get +1%-, you’d need a sample of 9,602 people.
All of these have a 95% confidence level - so one survey out of twenty will render a result outside of the margin of error.
41 URW - it’s a nice theory, sadly few have the decency to pay up, except for yourself of course. See, where’s our Christmas shindig you’re kindly sponsoring being held?
OT, I have just realised that the freak weather events recently have nothing to do with AGW, but are in fact portents of doom, heralds of the apocalypse. Another event occurred last night that was so unusual it can only mean the end of the world…
Dallas won a game in December!!!
39 Peter from Putney. You can learn infinitely more about political betting from a study of the BB markets than you can about Big Brother from a study of the political markets.
The stakes are much higher in Brother for starters.One of the great lessons I learnt is that people who play obscure side-markets are more knowledgeable and less streetwise than those who play the main market(s).
Very often a clever bet at a stupid price on a small side market is a canny predictor of a subsequent move on the big one.
40 - the excitement is that, “rogue” or otherwise (a much misused term - i think Mori’s methodology is so rubbish that they don’t really have “rogues” - by definition a poll outside of the margin of error caused by a duff sample), this poll undermines the exaggerated claims that were made of their last poll.
22 - Also for FergusMac
I agree about separate polling for Wales/Scotland/Northern Ireland - Simon Dyda and I were trying to gather enough interest from the Welsh bloggers to run a Wales-only poll. Now YouGov have started doing them occasionally.
I think samples of 1000 are ok, but I’d love to see 2400 become more regular. That said, in the US, there are plenty of 4% MoE polls with only 550-or-so respondents.
Another factor is response rate. If you send out a 1068 and get 1068 back, that is likely to be more accurate than if you send out 5000 and get 1068 back. The randomisation is supposed to avoid self-selection in the poll, which becomes a factor if your response rate drops too low. I don’t know if the BPC firms indicate response rate (it’s a while since I checked) but if it’s below 33%, I’d suggest that the ‘real’ MoE should probably be thought of as a conservative estimate.
This is a very tempting theory (given that I wrote on the day of the PBR that “this is the day the Government died”, I could hardly say otherwise). The fly in the ointment is that we do seem to have two schools of polls - some showing a firming up of Labour support and some not picking this up at all. Mori, oddly, seem to have had polls in both camps.
I’m not someone who is irrevocably opposed to the averaging of polls, but when there is such a fundamental divergence between pollsters, averaging is not helpful. Eventually, a long time after the event, we shall resolve which of the two schools of polls is correct. It is quite possible that Bob Worcester’s explanation will become the orthodoxy. At the moment it is too soon to tell whether the evidence will ultimately support him. In truth, I don’t think we shall ever finally know whether he is right.
O/T
For football fans everywhere
Apparently Roberto Mancini has already been replaced as Manchester City manager by Guus Hiddink. City’s owners are disappointed by City’s lack of trophies in the 45 minutes preceding Mancini’s appointment.
46 But, but… Gordon Brown said at Copenhagen that what we called Acts of God were caused by man. Floods, storms, droughts and pestilence all our fault.
Muckguire on BBC news 24
bet he won’t mention Mori poll lol
50 Sir Bob’s assumption it’s the PBR seems borne out by the change in confidence in older voters.
Its a significant change, from an age group who have experience of 70’s stagflation, early 80’s & 90’s recession. The oldest of those under 34 were 18 at end of last recession and have spent their adult lives in a growth economy.
In addition to experience 55+ voters are less believing of “it’s fine, we’ve got through, it’ll be growth all the way now, no worries” those over 55 are looking at retirement, lower fixed incomes, think more deeply about debts and savings. The PBR tried a bit of smoke & mirrors but couldn’t hide the “black hole”.
44 Thanks for that Morus - a very useful fools’ guide to MoEs.
Seeing you post at 8:15am, does this mean you are now back in Blighty for the festive season and btw do you still say Thirty-Third Street or is it now Turdy-Turd?
Come on BBC ask Mucky about the poll?
Oh dear 2mins and “were out of time”
bias is just incredible!!!
PfP - how are you, squire?!
No, I’m posting at 3:30 in the morning Eastern Seaboard Time, having just gotten home from a great dinner and a blizzard. We have 16-inches and counting of very powdery snow!
I’m staying in NYC over Christmas and New Year (brief trip to friends in New Jersey for Christmas Day and Boxing Day), then coming back to the UK for a few days in January. I’ll hopeuflly be attending the London polling conference that was mentioned on here (I think it’s on the 20th Jan) so might see some PBers then.
I’ll drop you an email when I’m back across…
Night all.
57 “Gotten home”
Hmm…. Just as I feared, the erstwhile posh Morus has gone native, I’ll take that as reading Turdy-Turd Street then!
58. Are Mori saying that high turnout is essential for Labour to win. I thought the Tories did better than average the higher the turnout? In any case turnout has greatest scope to rise in Labour’s inner city fortresses and an an extra 10k on the majority in Wigan may not amount to much for the election.
Doesn’t the Worcester defence boil down to its the press wot done it but the silly volatility is OK because of the political drama it causes?
Not credible. The poll. The defence.
The massive swings constantly shown by MORI are not believable. Opinion doesn’t move that fast. Once in a blue moon maybe, but not at the MORI frequency.
The lead is important in that it gives some idea of an electoral outcome. The shares looked at in isolation do not as so much in our system depends on the relative voting blocks for the respective parties.
The absolute levels then put that into context.
But looking at the shares in isolation tells you relatively little. Oh look, Labour are on 36%. Whoopee. Would that alone tell us anything about likely outcomes? No, as the Tories could be on 50% in the same poll.
Last weekend on the way back from a night out I had a chat with a taxi driver. He said that business out there was definitely quieter. People, he said, just were not quite as up for Xmas.
Anyone I speak to in business from managers to storemen is just knackered and just wants the time off. So many have been have taken pay cuts or reduced hours.
Friends to a man and woman dont seem to have any real christmas feeling, despite the recent dusting of snow we have received.
In the business I work in at least 3 customers have shown signs of being in serious trouble in the last 3 weeks alone.
If things that I see in public sector cushioned Northern Ireland are reflected in the rest of the country its hard to be surprised if the PBR didnt help the mood.
Things are still tough, very tough.
60 When do we know who’ll be standing in NI next year?
60
I went to Tesco on Sat morning. I expected it to be rammed at 9am. plenty of car park spaces and no queuing at the tills. Was everyone out Xmas shopping or is it a barometer of what’s going on out there.
Everyone I know says they are cutting back on Xmas spending. I think the main reason is people know what is coming in 2010 and are making sure they aren’t hocked on their credit card on day one.
A sensible precaution indeed.
A Johnson on Andrew Marr, so we’ll be onto toffs then. Yawn.
First post since the Mori figures came out. Mwahahaha, firstly. I do think the Tory share is a shade high, otherwise seems ok.
It’s telling though that a 3pt lead was taken as a serious possibility whereas the truth was a 17pt lead. The polls have been pretty divergent (not just Mori, though obviously Mori’s part of it).
Mor Con Lead since June:
14,17,16,17,12,17,6,17
So, not quite as volatile as some have been seeing. In the this light it’s clear there was something ‘funny’ about the lead of 6 in the one from last month.
Did someone say there’s likely to be another ComRes tomorrow/Tuesday?
63, I read on Skytext that the Hack Home Secretary had criticised the number of public schoolboys in the Cabinet, despite previously describing class war as a stunt that deserved to fail.
I wonder if he’s been commanded by his lord and Master, Gordo, Seeker of Cupboards, to change his mind?
66 Story here MD
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6962803.ece
OT, if the Betfair market is accurate, Rage have beaten Joe to number 1
67, thanks, Kristin.
“Alan Johnson will speed up the launch of identity cards in a bid to wrong-foot the Tories, who want to scrap the scheme.
The home secretary said that, from the new year, all 16 to 24-year-olds in London would be able to apply for the cards. He insisted that, in a pilot scheme in the northwest of England, the £30 cards had been used enthusiastically by youngsters as ID in bars and clubs. “Many passports are lost because youngsters take them out to prove their age and then lose them,” Johnson said.
The Conservatives claim the Labour plan is a waste of money that will damage civil liberties. ”
Scorched earth, yet again. If people lose passports used as ID why won’t they lose ID cards?
Hehe, comments can be good:
” Scot Richards wrote:
I agree with Mr Postie. The leaders of the UK should not in any way be well educated. No. Instead they should be semi-illiterate clowns like Mister Pat and his eco-warrior pal Prescott.
I think he should show the British people what he is made of and go on strike. Refuse to govern the country until all these educated people are put out to work on farms like they do in his beloved Russia.
Sheesh!”
61. It’s coming out in fits and startsn and its the usual faces in most areas. The main unknowns revolve around Jim Allister’s Ant Hill mob and the UU/Tory’s, which threatens to be a balls. The local UU groups are having some serious ructions at the moment in some key constitutencies.
Off for a run in the snow. If I’m lucky I’ll be posting again in an hour or so, if I end up in casualty with a broken leg it could quite a bit longer. I like to think of myself as Rocky in No4 f that series, battling through Siberia but I’ll probably be like Bambi….
69. MD “If people lose passports used as ID why won’t they lose ID cards?”
Indeed!
In a gaffe worthy of Nicola Murray and the DoSaC team from the The Thick of It, the stasi-esque titled Identity Minister, Meg Hillier, turned up to an ID card unveiling in Liverpool without her ID card. As the Liverpool Post reports:
The former journalist and mother patted herself down and checked her handbag for the missing card before putting the slip-up down to the demands of looking after her baby. She then posed in front of the city’s landmark Liver Buildings alongside the vast River Mersey without her card.
“Is fear of the Cameron/Osborn team enough to energise the Labour reluctants?”
Any theoretical re-energising of Labour reluctants is more than offset by the deep seated loathing of other voters, throughout the country, of the Brown/Darling team!
70, just don’t start a fight with a massive blonde Russian.
In the spirit of Christmas NOT.
Charities face £20m ‘tax’ for playing music
Village hall dances and other charity events face a new £20 million tax after Lord Mandelson scrapped an opt-out which allowed voluntary organisations to play music.
The Business Secretary is abolishing an exemption for charities from music licensing rules – hitting them with huge bills for holding events with recorded music.
Community groups said last night they would be forced to abandon hundreds of services for the elderly and children because of the new rules.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6844240/Charities-face-20m-tax-for-playing-music.html
Oh, and someone should get the BBC to update their poll tracker
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm
Is Charlie Kennedy making a comeback? He is on good form. But does he have more than one tie?
Globally warm as hell down here in Devon, though not as toastie warm as east coast USA where they are sweltering under 14 inches of snow. Slipping into bermuda shorts and going out to beat a denialist with a cricket bat till it breaks in three places.
69 - lol. Spend £20billion so that kids can use them to get into clubs! Hadn’t heard that one before. (Er, 16 year olds…? - are they faking their ages on their applications? ;))
77, unsurprising economic illiteracy from the Cabinet. After all, Brown sold off gold at the bottom of the market, and wrecked the entire economy a few years later.
I rather suspect though that Comrade Johnson is fully signed up for the ID card bullshit, which is bloody anti-British.
Oh, and I made a typo above. I left it in for purposes of mirth but should probably correct it. Johnson has attacked the Shadow Cabinet for having too many public schoolboys, not the Cabinet
Off topic, I have uploaded the latest best prices in the constituency markets onto pb2 here:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/12/best-constituency-prices-december.html
The format for the information is not as pretty as I would like, but thanks to Rod Crosby and wibbler, the format is a lot prettier than it would have been. I hope that this is of use to some.
Macintyre/Bedpans:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/160-labour-fight-poll-begins
“Indeed, yesterday’s poll and the apparent trend reminded me that, after I dared to suggest in my New Year predictions (some wrong, some right), that the two main parties’ positions in the polls would switch by the end of this year, Iain Dale, the amiable and popular partisan Conservative blogger, reacted with “cackling laughter” and said: “In your dreams, sunshine.”
In fact, private polling commissioned by No 10 is today showing just that.
UPDATE: The right-wing blogosphere, often loose with the facts, is once again misinterpreting what I said. I did not say there is polling showing that Labour is now “ahead”. I said, and you can see it above, that private polling is showing a trend that will show a reversal of the parties’ fortunes by the end of the year. OK? I hope this is clear to those who cannot see the difference between the journalistic view that Labour could still win — a view apparently shared by David Cameron, incidentally — and supposed Labour “spin”.”
76. Seems there’s a parallel between reporting on climate change and reporting on the polls: we DO have global warming (which only the gutter press would link to the weather). We WILL have a hung parliament - no matter what the polls might say. Spin has spun out of control.
Geoff H the volatility is a long term trend with MORI, sudden dips and crests.
If you go back a little further there is a consecutive monthly series of leads of 4, 14, 20, 10%. These are massive changes.
Even if you take the Worcester line of looking at the shares earlier this year MORI gave us a series of Labour shares of 28, 18, 25, 21%.
80
James McIntyre shows the perils of political wishful thinking combined with poor training in logic coupled with an inability to live in the real world.
He’s not space cannon material as it would just waste good siege artillery time..
Morris Dancer, you raise a very interesting point: why was the idea of a Mori poll showing a Tory lead of just 3% so plausible? Does it show a commendable openness of mind or does it show gullibility? As one of the people who took the rumour at face value (though not, fortunately, in a way that cost me money), I would like to know!
22 agree. In fact I raied this very point when the last poll came out which seemed to show around 1022 people were interviewed. How in a country of 60 million someone can ‘baxter. that down to precisely the number of seats is not really scientific given the small number involved.
From my own type of work IMOH what it will show is a trend only. Hence looking at all the polls the trend would ‘INFER’ that the double digit lead is continuing with the exception of the previous one. It normal scientific circles this previous poll would have been rejected as outside the acceptable parameters of accurracy even after filtering.
In saying that I feel a trend does not infer a win either by any means but I feel is a good pointer to the likely level that a particular party will achieve. I just feel that any further inference on that trend which can only be described a miniscule sample cannot by that accurate. There is also the postal votes of course both legitimate and illegitimate that could swing the vote back and forth particularly in the marginal seats.
Not an apologist for Labour as I want them to be turfed out yesterday but viewing this purely on smaple size which I thinkk to be credible needs to be in the tens of thousnads rather than just thousands.
84, I suspect it’s a reflection of the general pb consensus that Mori is prone to swinging as wildly as a pair of Swedish sex-addicts.
Plus, it’s not a huge leap from 6pts to 3.
I do think that if the 17pt lead had been reported in the same way as the 3pt (ie Labour PPC) the mass reaction, and one I would’ve shared, would have been “Lefty ramping. Tory number is too high, must try harder.”
When rumours of a Mori poll showing a considerable narrowing of the Tory lead where filtered onto this site, it was rubbished.
Mori were out of date and ICM and Yougov were held up as examples of accuracy. Now ICM and Yougov are oddities, despite the fact that ICM in particular has always been though of as the ‘Gold Standard’ poll.
It’s back to square one for SPIN.
LAB…210-215
CON…350-355
LD…..51-54
LD up by one Seat.
88. URW - “It’s back to square one for SPIN.”
Quelle surprise.
69. Can we now look forward to public spirited 16-24 year old bar and club users coming forward to support ID cards, or are they as rare as Conservatives for Palmer in Broxtowe?
86 - in any case, it’s a good reminder in advance of the election that we can expect rumours and rampers galore. Scepticism can be healthy.
90 Stuart Le Dickson. Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
84 - i think you are confusing the plausibility of Mori producing a 3% lead poll, with the plausibility of that being a genuine position in reality. Since they produced a six-point lead last month, then obviously the possibility of them producing a similar lead is then more plausible than an extreme poll at the other end of the spectrum.
If someone “leaked” an Angus Reid poll showing a 20% lead that would seem plausible, a rumour of an AR poll with a lead of 3% wouldn’t.
87 ICM do have the best long term track record and if their next Poll shows the same or better for Labour then the Tories should be worried and heavily so. ICM just seem able to pick up the Lib Dem share better than all others it seems and that difference in Lib Dem polling is what is seeming to affect Labour’s overall position more than a fairly contsant Tory share at present.
Bobs central point is correct.
Brown can’t motivate Labour voters to turn out will lose, and particularly badly in the Midlands.
Watching the herd on herd turn 180 degrees on MORI is funny.
I see the next Tory Home Secretary Eric Pickles is on TV today and the Dead Man Walking Grayling is also on.
Thanks, Morus, that explains things.
52
He’s now fulfilling his sinecure on R5
If I had been polled before I was aware of the significance of the question, I would never have said I was 10 out of 10 certain to vote. I might be seriously ill, unexpectedly out of the country or so furious with the political classes because of some future scandal that I didn’t want to vote. In practice, I troop off to the polling booth on every occasion. The question is dependent on the pollee’s own interpretation of the 1-10 scale.
“Watching the herd on herd turn 180 degrees on MORI is funny”
And in your head. The comments of most on here remain that MORI’s polling is flawed.
87/95 - I haven’t seen anybody suddenly extolling the virtues of Mori (except in a ‘tongue in cheek’ way). About the best that has been said of this poll is that it basically invalidates the extreme conclusions drawn from last month’s poll - not because this poll is now “accurate”, but because the wild swings are indication of near randomness.
93. URW
That’d be ‘Stuart Le Fils Du Richard’.
And your spelling is terrible (in the English sense, not the French one). ‘Tis: “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”. Note the wee squiggly bit under the “c”, and that “e” wearing a flashy hat.
79 Thanks Antifrank. Very helpful.
98 - Of course last month Mori apparently would have been even worse for the Tories had the 8s and 9s been included. The whole basis for their polling just doesn’t seem to work.
95 He may get Labour voters out but does that guarantee victory? IIRC Callaghan got in more votes in total than Wilson managed in October 1974 but lost as the Tory vote rocketed. So is Mori right to say higher turnout must always favour Labour.
I’ve hit the sauce early this morning. This is my lunchtime you have to comprend.
LA LUNOTTE 2008 Les P’tites Vignes, Christophe Fouchet.
This is a little sweetheart, just 12% from Limousin. The grape is gamay.
For anyone who likes a very light,uncomplicated red, this is the place.
89. I agree with Stuart and a few others - Bob Worcester’s article, while elegant, is not a convincing explanation of the wild swings in MORI polls.
And I continue to take the view that far from seeing the volatility their methodology generates as a problem, they see it as an opportunity. The way Bob hangs the result on the PBR seems to me to represent an attempt to over-emphasise the impact such events have on voter opinion and by extension to over emphasise the important of individual polls.
In addition, I think it’s worth repeating what I noted late last night, that there appears to have been quite an effective attempt at Labour ramping over the last week. Punters beware as the GE approaches…
Anyone posted this yet?
Hazel Blears ‘on Botox’, says Lib Dem
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/liberaldemocrats/6845129/Hazel-Blears-on-Botox-says-Lib-Dem.html
104 - No of course not. Most recent example being Ken’s getting the Labour vote out in London (and that was an election where they counted, unlike a large heartland turnout under FPTP). Labour voters will turnout when they feel threatened by a Tory victory. But that doesn’t mean they can do anything to prevent it.
Hence high turnout correlates to high likelihood of Tory victory. The point being that the latter is a causal effect of the former, not vice versa.
95. To be fair there’s still a good deal of MORI-denial this morning.
Here’s an interesting article from The New Republic on the splits in the ideological differences within the Democratic Party:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-plank/taking-ideological-differences-seriously
“….the Obama administration has chosen the strategy of deploying regulated and subsidized private sector entities to achieve progressive policy results.”
Reminds me of this, from David Cameron:
“That simple idea - progressive ends delivered through conservative means - is what ties together our plans in almost every area of policy, adding up to a coherent and consistent overall plan for change.”
It is the fundamental insight in explaining why people like myself can be strong supporters of both the US Democratic Party and the UK Conservative Party.
108 alex. That mayoral contest was the highest profile event in British politics for a very long time.
It was truly gladiatorial and well matched.Arguably, any Labour candidate than Livingstone would have been slaughtered and any other Conservative than Boris would have lost.
So in one poll the Tories are up to a 17% lead. Followers of my commentaries will know that I’m not in the least surprised by this. Taking account of the margins of error, the polling picture hasn’t really changed much this year - Tories at about 40% and Labour about 10% behind. For a more expert analysis I recommend Sir Bob Worcester over on Politicalbetting.com.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:4d1bd5fe-50ec-437c-bac2-4a640b08b673
109 - I was referring to the “I shall be ignoring MORI” harrumphing that has been going on.
106. The problem I see with BobW’s article is that while he has the PBR as his ‘big event’ to explain the latest poll, there was no corresponding event to explain the 6% one. The idea that MORI’s volatility represents sensitivity to the impact of events is no more than a nice try.
I suspect the core issue is the weighting by sector of employment rather than past vote or party allegiance.
110 Somebody made the point that many Tory candidates backed Obama last year as their social differences with the GOP widened. They also pointed out that those GOPers invited to Tory conferences recently Schawrzenneger and McCain are precisely the sort most despised by the GOP base at present.
Antifrank - thanks for all the work you have put into a full survey to find the best constituency available at present.
Tim, it is hard to know what to make of Mori. Their polls do seem to be far more volatile than those of other pollsters. I shan’t be ignoring Mori - it can be quick to pick up trends - but it lags well behind ICM and YouGov in my mental pecking order.
I am fascinated by ARS’s stability. When we have tested it against real elections and it has been recalibrated accordingly, it may rise through the rankings rapidly. For now, however, it is in the box marked “untested”.
Re 110 MacMillan was a big admirer of kennedy and the Democrats, and of course Rooseverlt and Churchill got on well. I don’t think the Tories got close to the GOP until the maggie/Ronnie luv-in.
Talk about burying bad news. It’s not until the eighth paragraph of the Observer article that they actually give you the poll lead figure. Compare and contrast with reporting on the 6% poll lead. In fact the Observer article looks as if it had to be hastily edited to reflect the bad news. The first seven paragraphs give the history of Labour’s ‘recovery’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/20/opinion-polls-election-tory-lead
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/22/tory-lead-falls-mori-poll
113: I think most people are also not really thinking the ‘real’ lead is 17%. But, this is a confirmation somewhat the ’swingback’ if happening at all is not a dramatic one in the way in which James MacIntyre was saying, or which Rod Crosby beleives.
As such it’s pretty much status quo as normal, Tory around 40, Labour around 28. A 12 point lead with the tories over 40 will be more than enough for a ok majority.
114 I believe that was linked to the Sun’s story about Gordon Brown’s letter to the bereaved mother of a soldier killed in Afghanistan.
Seems a remarkably small thing to pin a big shift in opinion on, thopugh.
Does David Cameron read PB? Naaah, tis just coincidence, but yesterday I advised the Tories to “don tartan trews” if they wanted to get back up to the 20% mark. And this morning Mr Cameron has rumaged about at the back of his wardrobe and found a pair that he inherited from his Inverness-shire clan. And very dashing you look in them Sir!
‘David Cameron would not support a GB football team’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6962750.ece
Very, very wise of FM Dave. This will play well north of Gretna.
I wonder if we could end up with Wales representing the UK at the Olympics? Get your big leeks out boyos!
119. ‘In fact the Observer article looks as if it had to be hastily edited to reflect the bad news’
Which makes one wonder whether the hacks involved were also taken in by the misinformation on this poll seen over the last week…
Sir Bob: “the reluctant Labour supporters who’ve sat on their hands in the last two elections”….
Sorry, just don’t agree. 1997 was a massive change election. Labour got all its vote out but won so big becaue lots of natural Tories voted Blair; many more Tories didn’t vote at all. 2001 was an “as you are” election - Hague just didn’t have what it required to take on Blair with the voters. By 2005, there were good numbers of Tories who’d voted for Blair but had soured, who just sat on their hands; whilst a number of Tory “scabs” ended their vote strike.
In 2010, the Tory vote strike will have been called off. And it will be the Labour voters standing around the burning brazier, refusing to cross the picket lines.
It is in Britain’s interests in general for its Prime Minister to be close to the US president, whether Democrat or Rwpublican. Since 1945, only John Major forgot this. Harold Wilson deliberately deviated from this policy in the 1960s and was quite right to do so, keeping Britain out of the Vietnam War.
118. antifrank - “I shan’t be ignoring Mori - it can be quick to pick up trends - but it lags well behind ICM and YouGov in my mental pecking order.”
I am a bit worried about YouGov, and increasingly so. I strongly suspect that as the years go on their panel is going to slowly, but surely, get infiltrated by political activists. They have a huge task on their hands trying to ensure that the panel consists of “normal people”.
The key voters in GE 2010 are the ones who voted UKIP,BNP or GREEN in EURO 2009.
A massive percentage of these WILL vote and their votes in 2009 are subject to alteration in 2010.
106. Good points, runnymede.
On of the problems with getting a duff poll is that you get two duff swings: one when the rogue is published and then another when it’s back to normality. Was November’s Mori ‘rogue’? Well, there were some underlying reasons to explain a move to close the gap but not by that amount: it is a very rare political event that can produce a ten-point turnaround within a month.
And now, as Sir Bob rightly points out, those factors - especially the economic expectations question - have moved into reverse and the poll moves back somewhere near status quo ante. FWIW, I still think that both the Tory and LD shares are a touch high, even with the PBR reaction.
Where I’d dissent from Sir Bob’s analysis is where he deals with turnout. In that case, I believe he’s living a little in the past when he considers there to be a vast reservoir of Labour abstainers. There is certainly a large number of abstainers and they come disproportionately from social groups that used to be disproportionately Labour-supporting but that doesn’t mean that if they return to the polls, it will be Labour who gets their vote. They stopped voting for a reason and it wasn’t just that Labour was going to win anyway.
One other point worth making is that they’re not even the same voters. The most reliable Labour voters are the over-55s; the most flaky, the under-30s. The so-called Labour-abstainers have probably *never* voted for them. It will be a much harder ask to pull them into the tent than to win back former voters.
124 - Nah, the evidence is clear that there was a massive Labour strike from 1997 onwards. The key is not that this didn’t happen, but that if it returns it will not help Labour because it is largely in their safest seats.
125: I think it’s pretty clear though that Obama doesn’t give two hoots about ‘the special relationship’.
If I was Cameron, I would write off even trying to cosy up to him, looking forward to the potential next president.
Stuart Dickson, that is a risk, but YouGov have a strong interest in ensuring that does not happen. I expect they devote a lot of time and effort into countering this sort of entryism.
122 Surely it is in our interests for the strongest possible team to represent the UK? In which case it would seem reasonable to cherry pick players from all four home nations.
In any case, football, like all sports, is either a voluntary activity, or a business. It should be run by individual clubs and governing bodies. Governments should not get involved. Death to DCMS!
Having read Bob Worcester’s comments the implication seems to be that the 17% Tory lead relates to a turnout of 50%.Even the elections of 2001 and 2005 produced a turnout of about 60% and most people expect a higher figure next time.A 60% outcome - Worcester suggested - would give a result of Con 40 - Lab 30 - LibDem 20.Such a result is surely very much in line with ICM,YouGov and Populus!
120. PollyB
Savour the moment Polly. Nothing like a good dose of Schadenfreude to put a wee skip in one’s step.
Spring will soon be here, and we’ll be rid of the buggers. I very, very much doubt that “organs” like the Observer will be around to document the English GE of 2014/15.
117 - MORI tends to pick up disgruntlement.
Its the I’m Pi$sed Off Score (IPSOS)
128. Good post David - your final point is a killer for Bob Worcester’s thesis.
O/T - anyone betting on Xmas Number 1 may need some nerves of steel.
The Betfair market has moved significantly in favour of Rage Against The Machine this morning, apparently purely on the strength of the iTunes chart showing that RATM have won.
Beware. I believe the iTunes chart does not exclude people who have downloaded the song multiple times, which is something it appears most people have done on the Facebook group. If the Official Chart Company gets uppity, they will remove not just the multiple purchases, but the original one too.
If you’re prepared to risk it, the odds in favour of Joe winning are currently very attractive, wavering between 3 to 5/1.
Punter December 20th, 2009 at 9:50 am …”ICM just seem able to pick up the Lib Dem share better than all others it seems and that difference in Lib Dem polling is what is seeming to affect Labour’s overall position more than a fairly contsant Tory share at present.”
ICM got the Lib Dems badly wrong for the Euro’s.
“I would write off even trying to cosy up to him, looking forward to the potential next president.”
Which could of course be in 7 years time. He’d be far better advised to engage rather the write off any relationship.
I have to say Mori are a bit like Carlsberg this weekend “probably the best in the world”Comres, ARS and now Mori all showing 17 point leads.
Yougov 12 point Tory lead - comment, generally a bit kinder to Labour.
ICM 9 point Tory lead - Albeit they had a HUGE labour sample this month, managing to catch all the lazy socialist b4stsrds straight after they get back from signing on the dole.
Next month ICM - 14 point Tory lead.
Next month Yougov - 14 point Tory lead.
Populus - If they can get in touch with anyone outside Glasgow, we might get a believable set of numbets from them!
115, 125. I still don’t think most politicos in the UK realise how much off the end the GOP has gone. Although they have sanctified Ronald Reagan, the party has got narrower and more extreme in its ideology ever since. I think a lot of Conservatives still think themselves as broadly Republican and reckon Bush Jnr was a lone “bad egg”, when he’s actually representative of the modern party (and more moderate than most congressional Republicans - and certainly the activist base).
129. David Herdson - “Where I’d dissent from Sir Bob’s analysis is where he deals with turnout. In that case, I believe he’s living a little in the past when he considers there to be a vast reservoir of Labour abstainers. There is certainly a large number of abstainers and they come disproportionately from social groups that used to be disproportionately Labour-supporting but that doesn’t mean that if they return to the polls, it will be Labour who gets their vote. They stopped voting for a reason and it wasn’t just that Labour was going to win anyway.”
Spot on David!!
A vast number of voters have decided not to vote Labour, but they have not yet decided whether to abstain or whether to cast their vote elsewhere. The Bunker are just praying that they abstain, cos otherwise it’ll be a gey gory sight.
139: I’m not saying no relationship of course, but trying to woo someone whose’s clearly not interested is a waste of time and resources. Cameron can easily keep things business-like and work together without attemping all the touchy-feely fawning over Obama.
123. Runnymede - think this is highly likely.
As for comparisons with 1997, I don’t think there could be a greater difference in the mood of the country. 1997 was driven by general optimism, with the economy palpably growing stronger. 2010 will be driven by mistrust in politicians and fear and anxiety about Britain’s economy dominating. Cameron will certainly not be elected on a tidal wave of hope, even if he is going to try and lighten the mood in his January manifesto. And while it was good sport to read about the latest troubles in Tory ranks in ‘97, there is a visceral hatred of Gordon Brown and all he represents.
137: One thing to bear in mind is that itunes is only download. Although most songs are now in that format, one runs the risk of CD purchases being higher for the X-factor bloke for 2 reasons. Firstly its Xmas, so people will buy it as presents, and secondly people which only rarely buy music may only buy the single, rather than downloading it.
143. I certainly hope so. The arse-licking behaviour of both the last two Labour PMs toward their opposite numbers in the White House has been vomit-inducing.
Anecdote alert. Many of my neighbours are elderly. After expenses, many of them were so disgusted they said they would not vote. They still are disgusted.
Unless activists work very hard, many people will still not be in voting mood come GE.
Having said that, I expect a Tory landslide due to events in the next 3 months. Gordon turns everything he touches to shit (lead is valuable). I expect he will continue. He cannot help it.
A last minute election is going to ensure things get worse by the day as polling day looms..
HAPPY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE !
I will shortly be furnishing the site with my Satirical round up of the year!
Expect some seam bursting slating of our pathetic bunch of hangers on (the government)
Gordon is obviously my main target and what fab material … He just keeps giving.. (s4it that is)
Bye for now.
Kit Kat anyone?
133. John Lilburne - “In which case it would seem reasonable to cherry pick players from all four home nations.”
I disagree. Soccer is a team sport. It takes tremendous work to build up a team. You cannot just cobble together a team entirely composed of cherry-picked players for a single event, and expect that team to gel. Eg. just look at some of the laughable US teams built out of superstars -> they were terrible at actually being a team.
The Yookay is a failed team concept. It is rapidly heading for the dustbin of history.
145 - I agree, which makes the current odds available remarkable. I can’t believe that the chart has been leaked this early; it may not even have been compiled yet, but I don’t normally follow the music charts so this may or may not be normal.
There isn’t much liquidity on Betfair (surprise!) but at such generous odds it may not be necessary. Oh, I am sorely tempted…
Looking at ‘The Sunday Times’, I’d like to see all major parties committing to reform of the libel laws. Britain is now the International centre for libel laws being used to gag rational scientific debate.
Let’s hear a committment from the shadow attorney generals and justice teams on this. It should be in the first Queen’s speech.
118. The Democrats have generally been much more internationalist than the Republicans, which by and large leads to more consistency in policy: always a good thing if you’re from another country. The GOP tend to swing between unilateral action and isolationism.
There have been a few exceptions to that (Teddy Roosevelt, Ike, Nixon and GHW Bush stand out), but Roosevelt was deeply distrusted by many Republicans (not without reason), Ike was drafted to the GOP rather than a product of it and Nixon and Bush to a large extent ‘inherited’ the nominations as current and/or former vice-presidents - they were different creatures from those responsible to a more local base.
I don’t buy the explanation of this poll compared with the last one.
Did Labour voters sit on their hands in the last two GEs? I thought it was more likely to red Tories who were wondering what they’d done and had no credible alternative.
And the polling took place 2 days before and one day after the PBR IIRC so the full horror wouldn’t have seeped in.
And that doesn’t explain the jump from 6-17pts…
*scratching head*
PS Is Marr worth watching on iPlayer?
141-Off the end=you don’t agree with them.
What matters especially?
Global warming? “Cultural” issues? Death penalty? Tax? Creationism? Foreign policy?
Maybe in your circles there are few if any people who would agree with Republicans on all/some of the above. But then birds of a feather flock together. How could Nixon win (in 1972)? I know absolutely NO-ONE who voted for him!
Or perhaps, it’s the Dems that have gone off the end. And Labour.
I noted that someone (madasafish?) was getting the piss taken out of him a couple of days ago for his anecdotal evidence of global warming.
Well, I’d just like to lob in my personal observation: if one reads the literature it is pretty clear that up until the early 19th century the beech (Fagus sylvatica) was confined in distribution to southern England. Well, I know for a fact that it now absolutely thrives in Lochaber. So much so that it is a total pest, nearly on the scale of Rhododendron ponticum.
There are hundreds of other examples of species whose distribution has drifted northwards under the last 200 years.
69. “Scorched earth, yet again. If people lose passports used as ID why won’t they lose ID cards?”
Even for Johnson that was a remarkably stupid thing to say.
“Off the end=you don’t agree with them”
Unfortunately, no, I wish it were that simple. For example, in your list of issues you have creationism. The extent to which this is gaining hold in the GOP is terrifying.
147. Madasafish I think the electorate is rather like a person who’s just gone through a very bitter divorce. It will take a long time before they trust anyone again, let alone make a commitment to tie the knot. Cameron will have to overcome a lot of suspicion. That is why the idea he broke a ‘cast iron promise’ hit him much harder than the silly toff stuff, IMO.
137. The Facebook group also had a post yesterday evening that RATM were 10,000 copies short of the No1 slot and that the shops were mostly closed meaning that the position would be decided on downloads from there.
Call me cynical but this seems like a remarkably conveniant number: small enough for people to believe the game is still in play but poised to maximise incentive for anti-Cowell people to download. It must also have had a remarkably good feed for the up-to-the-minute figures.
149 But all international teams are scratch teams by definition.
It would of course be necessary to assemble the team a few months before the event and arrange some competitive matches.
International rugby manages to have Home Nation teams - one of which involves players from two countries - and a British Isles team.
Morning All,
Have we any idea what the Mori 6-10 certainty vote figures etc are yet it seems to me that despite all the other explanations for this poll that until we have an idea of what they are it is hard to get to the bottom of this poll?
Basically, I don’t think the PBR argument answers the question properly nor do I think that ICM and Yougov are out of step.
138 I judge them against the General Election. The Euros are very hard to measure WRT Lib Dems because of the distortions of PR which means the in your area point of ICM becomes meaningless.
155 - That wellknown meteorologist Gladys Knight disagrees:
“Hey, everybody’s talkin’ about the good old days, right
Everybody, the good old days, the good old days
Well, let’s talk about the good old days
Come to think of it as, as bad as we think they are
these will become the good old days for our children, hum
Why don’t we, ah
Try to remember that kind of September
When life was slow and oh, so mellow, hum
Try to remember, and if you remember then follow
Oh, why does it seem the past is always better
We look back and think
The winters were warmer
The grass was greener
The skies were bluer
And smiles were bright”
But perhaps that just reflects North American climate.
149 - If ou’re looking for a threat to Scottish Football you’re looking in the wrong place.
Rangers and Celtic’s desire to skip the border is what you should be watching.
Its behind you!
161. John Lilburne - “But all international teams are scratch teams by definition.”
No they are not! They are “standing teams”. They do not just dissolve after tournaments - the entire staff structure is permanent, and many players have long careers in their international team. France gels as a team. Portugal gels as a team. England gels as a team. The Yookay team just does not exist in any way, shape or form. It is a “non-team”.
Polls taken in the aftermath of a particular event (budgets etc) have a tendency to overstate, particularly in the negative for a government. After a few weeks the memory of them begins to blunt and then fade.
Comment on Mori from a previous thread heading.
Whichever paper has invested good money in the unpublished MORI poll, completed last weekend, is going to find that it will look even more outdated following news of this latest YouGov survey for the People.
So Yougov wasn’t an oddity then?
153. Plato - I only watched the second half of Marr. A long snooze of an interview with Johnson followed by not very entertaining clips of the year. Maybe the first half was better, but I wouldn’t give it priority over washing your hair.
165 - I see you don’t have the nerve to claim that Scotland gels as a team!
159 - yes, David - for a group that apparently have sprung up from nowhere other than latent demand, they appear to have remarkable connections getting them this information that, by the way, no one else has!
It’s a very tough call. I understand that the charts are sent out to broadcasters at around 1pm under embargo. So that would preclude leaks, but there are still people insisting they have heard “from the PA” or other suitably impressive source that they have the answer everyone else is waiting for.
Still, it’s made this dull Sunday a little more interesting!
164 Rangers are virtually owned by RBS now aren’t they?
151 The problem is that this is exactly the sort of things Governments should do - review the legal framework and amend it as necessary - and then let its citizens get on with life, with disputes settled by the courts according to this framework. Reviewing the law on self-defence is a similar case.
However, we have stupidly over-interventionist governments that instead legislate to regulate every minor aspect of life, and are addicted to legislative activism, ie they relentlessly pursue new legislation but will not review existing legislation or indeed repeal legislation that has passed its sell-by date.
Libel laws need reviewing quickly, but unfortunately even if it is minded to do it, the next Conservative government will have to spend two or three years undoing the Labour legacy. And even then I doubt they will have the balls to do it properly. For example, if they ever legalise foxhunting, I bet they introduce some sort of ridiculous regulatory framework, rather than simply repeal the Hunting with Dogs act and go back to the status quo ante.
In addition, with so many lawyers in parliament - well, the current law is a meal ticket for many of them and their colleagues in the profession. Maybe the simplest thing to do would be to pass a law restricting damages to the demonstrable financial loss suffered.
it is my view that as turnout increases from the 2005 level a far greater proportion of returning voters will be Tory - these are the voters who were not swayed by Michael Howard but are now very motivated to see change . Labour may be able to motivate some votes where they least need them and the lib dems will get out about their same level of support but will increase their vote much less than the Tories - so higher turnout = Tory win on a larger scale . It also tips some lib dem tory marginals into the tory camp . I think the London mayoral elections although very different contests showed a little of this effect
165/168 “England gels as a team.”
No it doesn’t! England consistently plays as less than the sum of its parts.
Getting rid of the tw@ Beckham would be a start.
151 - I would have more sympathy with reform of libel laws if the British press were not the most irresponsible in the world. Given what newspapers get away with publishing now, it is important that there are stringent laws in place to keep them in check. I don’t trust Governments to do so - they want the support of the media, not its hostility. Private individuals, on the other hand, have no such constraints.
I would introduce some reforms to stop forum-shopping, so that Russian billionaires can’t sue small American magazines in London without a very good reason. But I’d need a lot of persuasion before reforms went much further forward.
I see the Observer piece does say the poll was taken in the aftermath of the PBR, though we still don’t know exactly when. It does look as though for this sample, the PBR was a big turn-off - which as others have said sits oddly with other post-PBR polls. (Scratches head.) What it may well have done is dent Labour certainty to vote - which as MORI does things is an absolute killer, even if it changes from 1000% certain to 90% certain.
My best guess based looking at all the recent polls is that the Tories are about 39-28 ahead, after weighting for turnout, but that turnout certainty is fluctuating quite a lot according to what’s in the news.
174: yes, that’s a point antifrank. I’ve signed up for the reform movement on the basis that the “Bad Science” movement (Goldacre etc.) say it’s needed, but if it will hand a free pass to the press to make stuff up even more than they already do…hmm. Depends on the wording of the change, I guess.
176 - It’s worth noting that the “Bad Science” movement isn’t wholly disinterested. They want to be able to say whatever they like too. Scientists are quite as capable as anyone else of overstepping the mark.
176 A minimum harm threshold would be an idea. Right now a dusty couple of books in an obscure second hand book shop in London that may or may not have been read can cause an action here rather than the USA where the readership maybe in the millions.
140. I think in six weeks time being only 17 points behind in the polls will look like a pipe dream to labour. The sheer hilarity of the Gordon “Big man for a big job” Copenhagen debacle sinks in with the electorate.
let’s pay passing tribute to Dave for a masterly policy of not getting involved but kicking back and opening the popcorn like the rest of us. An easy mistake to make would have been to send a representative front bencher to do BBC interviews to shore up the party’s “We do huskie hugging too” credentials. He avoided that trap and by having no visible presence at all sent a clear signal to the sceptics as to the weight he actually attaches to the AGW hoax.
Moving on, let us consider some other absences from Copenhagen and from the news. Where is Mandelson? Answer: he knows which way the wind s blowing on AGW and on Labour and I think we may have seen and heard the last of him. Where was Bono (ubi bono, as we say in Latin)? Warned off, I imagine, by his PR people, not to associate himself with failure. Indeed where was Gordon? If things had gone his way he would have been all over the telly like a rash, but in fact he tried to do a Macavity and send Miliband E to face the music (and I was impressed by the way Miliband made the best of a very bad job). We have got to the stage where Gordon’s support within the party is reduced to Two Shags.
This can only get much, much worse. Brown stinks of failure and death now to everyone, home and abroad. Anyone with any sense is going to send an office boy, if that, to the brownbouncetastic Afghan summit in January. In particular let’s wait and see what Obama does. The times have been when he oozed so much luck and charisma that he could revive a corpse. He is too close to failure himself now to risk further association with Brown.
Happy Christmas Gordon, and thanks for the present!
adam Boulton equates “honour killing” with cricket bat self defence !!!!!!!!!!
A pukka essay from Bob Worcester, for which - festive thanks; however I agree with David and Runnymede et al on one point.
I do NOT buy the Worcester Thesis that there are billions of dormant Labour voters out there, who, if they vote, will vote Labour.
Put it another way: I do not believe that a rise in turnout necessitates a rise in the percentage Labour vote at the expense of the Tories.
This is, in fact, a Classic Lefty Delusion, shared by liberal-leftoids across the world: basically everyone agrees with us, we just need to get them voting.
It’s piffle. The people not voting could be BNP, SNP, UKIP, Green, Bolshevik, MPLA, or Poujadist Jacobins with homemade petards. Or, even more likely, they could be be people too stupid, rich, old, demented, foreign, diseased or blind stinking drunk to give a feck about politics.
But no! They must be Labour!
For a similar example of this Classic Lefty Delusion, cf the Bush Jr’s second election. The turnout in America went up, which had Democrats wetting themselves with glee as they envisaged the unwaged hordes of America kicking the cowboy out of the White House.
Then they realised that many if not most of the *new* voters were voting for… Dubya.
Increased Turnout does NOT always favour the left.
122. Stuart. Maybe Dave is really going to have a go at saving the union after all.
181 see 104. Callaghan got more votes in 1979 than Wilson in October 1974 but was beaten as the Tory voted rocketed ahead.
174, 176 “I would have more sympathy with reform of libel laws if the British press were not the most irresponsible in the world. Given what newspapers get away with publishing now, it is important that there are stringent laws in place to keep them in check.”
Define what is irresponsible, and why reform of the libel laws would threaten that.
I would certainly want the publishing of demonstrable falsehoods to remain actionable.
I suspect NPMP for one thinks that freedom to publish what you damn well like = irresponsibility.
155: “Well, I’d just like to lob in my personal observation: if one reads the literature it is pretty clear that up until the early 19th century the beech (Fagus sylvatica) was confined in distribution to southern England. Well, I know for a fact that it now absolutely thrives in Lochaber. So much so that it is a total pest, nearly on the scale of Rhododendron ponticum.”
But it’s probably not the native English beech. Here in Cumbria, the beech are being felled in our local woodland on the grounds that they are a Balkan variety.
Apart that is for one old tree. 200 years olf and very much a native English beech.
I think that the failure of the climate summit to reach any binding agreement, at all, is the final death blow to Labour at this election. There has always been a global summit, or a set of elections or a Brown relaunch for Labour supporters to hang their hopes of recovery on. These are all gone now.
Alternatively there were rumours and stories that Brown would be removed or he would step down using ill health as an excuse. It is too late for this now, and all the possible contenders have been exposed as false Messiahs. This summit was their last chance, there is nothing left before June of next year that can save them.
Even that tired political mantra about “events” is of little comfort now, we are heading into the Christmas break. News and politics won’t get going again now until the new year and it looks like the Tories will be launching a major offensive very early on. The media narrative is swinging against Labour again now and even if they find something positive to say no one will listen.
A Confederate diarist called Mary Chesnut wrote that the final years of the American Civil War were for the South “like a Greek tragedy, where you know what the outcome is bound to be”. These words seem quite apt for Labour now.
128. David Herdson December 20th, 2009 at 10:29 am
“I believe he’s living a little in the past when he considers there to be a vast reservoir of Labour abstainers.”
I’m guessing that BW’s statement was based on the fact that, as you include people with lower and lower certainty vote in the polling figures, Labour’s position improves.
In a sense, saying that high turnout favours Labour is just another way of saying that Tories are more likely to vote. The closer turnout is to 100%, the less that Tory advantage applies.
My Climate Change anecdote is that thirty years ago most annoying whinging bastards were confined to the South of England.
Now they seem to equally inhabit areas around Glasgow and Aberdeen.
On the turnout issue and who it’s good for:
On one side, we have the fact that the further you go down the “likelihood to vote” scale, the better the figures become for Labour. This implies that increasing turnout = increasing Labour fortunes.
On the other side, we have the fact that in high turnout elections of the past, the Tories fortunes seem to correlate better than Labour’s (1979 turnout higher than 1974 and a Tory win, 1992 surprisingly high turnout and a surprise Tory win, 1997, 2001 and 2005 low turnouts and Labour wins). It could be argued that with higher turnouts, Labour would have done better in each case, but this is speculative at best.
One possible solution is that the “1-10″ scale is not really consistent across the demographics and political scale. As Antifrank alluded to earlier, his view of a “10″ is almost impossible to achieve, especially at any significant distance from a credible date for an election. Could it be that there is a preferential bias to higher claimed propensity to vote from Labour-supporting responders? This could reconcile the figures nicely.
“It is the fundamental insight in explaining why people like myself can be strong supporters of both the US Democratic Party and the UK Conservative Party.”
Indeed (although I speak not as a tory supporter but as an admirer of Cameron); any British conservative who opposes Obama’s policy isn’t somebody who is in tune with Cameron, in fact it’s a sign from some people of a greater split with the Cameronian way than they otherwise admit.
Although less liberal than Cameron on a number of issues (health, guns, capital punishment and so on), Obama is what would be seen as a one nation tory over here.
184 - The law allows you to say what you like, so long as you can back it up with hard facts or show that it’s fair comment. Why is that such a terrible rule?
For 24 hours it was pretty much accepted as fact that the Mori poll would show a lead of just 3% for the Tories. As it happens, that was quickly disproved. But rumours can get the status of fact with astonishing ease. Newspapers are quick enough to print rumours as it is. A bit of rigour is needed so that we can identify what is true and what isn’t. None of our current newspapers are interested in establishing themselves as having a superior reputation on this front.
181
As much of a myth as bad weather always favours the Tories?
When a government is in trouble there is a natural reluctance of even its natural supporters to say they will vote for it,come the day some will, some won’t.
Back in ‘76 during the Coventry byelection ‘World in Action (?) spent a week with a family of Labour supporters, (extended family) all but one were adamant they wouldn’t be voting Labour. When they interviewed them after the poll, all but one had.
160. John there is no such thing as a UK football team and never will be , it was a non starter from the beginning. FIFA would use it as an excuse as soon as possible in any case and nobody outside England wants to be part of the UK(English) team in any case.
122. Stuart Dickson December 20th, 2009 at 10:23 am
Cameron may have his faults but he’s not an idiot. Announcing to Scottish football fans that their team has effectively been amalgamated with England … yeah. I mean, you’re Prime Minister; they know where you live.
I wonder if Labour’s urgent need to preserve the Union will lead them into similar oddities.
190 If Obama didn’t reflect American opinion on those issues his candidacy would have been as credible as Kucinichs.
On the libel tangent, I like the idea of a “minimum damage” threshold, but I’d also like to see a “right to reply” defence.
If you say something in a forum where the libellee is able to respond and put their own side of the story, I think that’s a fundamentally different thing saying something about someone in a way that the people reading it won’t get to read their response. And structuring it like that would encourage people to let their opponents put their side of the story, so the law would encourage open dialog and the free flow of information, rather than repressing it as it does now.
183. malcolmG - “Maybe Dave is really going to have a go at saving the union after all.”
Maybe Malcolm. Just maybe.
FM Dave’s public statement in support of the Home Nations football teams, and in opposition to governmental interference in sport, is a very, very welcome sign that he appreciates the profundity of the coming constitutional crisis. He realises that the very last thing the Union needs is rampant British nationalists kicking dirt in the Scots’ faces.
It is a small sign, but could be the start of a change of strategy. We will see…
170. Punter , if you are going to sneer, get your banks right. They are like most football teams , mostly owned by an individual and tied to his business interests and bank accounts. They are no different in that respect.
I happened to find myself late on friday night in the company of a senior delegate at the Copenhagen conference , he was from an African country with close historic ties to the UK ( not Zimbabwe ! ) and was returning home . We discussed the conference and all its ups and downs and other economic matters relating to the African country - its relationship with China etc . In the course of the long conversation the question of Gordon came up and I asked what they thought of his efforts during the conference . The response was in effect to say they waiting to deal with the next government and there is a sense that authority and power has moved away from him and a state of limbo now exists in relation to the UK
185 Weather change is obviously (except to those at the shallow end of the gene pool) the best available evidence for climate change as well as having the splendid quality that it is obvious to everyone and not falsifiable by tinkering with fortran and destruction of primary records.
Professor Hubert Lamb, founder of the Climate Research Unit at UEA, moved from a theory of global cooling to global warming on the basis of the hot summer of 1976.
197. Unfortunately it’s the BOA that makes the decision, Stuart, so Cameron’s stance is irrelevant. Or am I being naive?
To be honest, a Home Nations tournament to decide the GB representatives would be a step forward, but only a very small one - it would still nominally be a GB team, which still potentially threatens the separate status of Scotland and Wales. The only difference as things stand is that there’ll be an England-only GB team without a play-off.
Just thought I would share a conversation I just had.
I was watching Sky news this morning and the guests were giving their predictions for next election. Wifes friend looks at tv when Abbott opines that a hung parliament is likely and (friend) comments that this is hardly likely as she does not know anyone who will be voting Labour.
Ok, fair enough and its only a small snapshot of one part of the South East …… except she is a teacher in the public sector.
Paddy Power - Next UK General Election - Turnout
65% - 69.99% = Fav at 2/1
191 Actually I think the law allows you to say what you like as long as you have reasonable grounds for believing it to be true. It is civil law which should be based on the “balance of probabilities”.
But in practice it appears to allow some people to close down discussion by threatening libel action that ordinary people have no hope of being able to afford to counter.
Libel tourism should be banned, redress should be sought in the most appropriate jurisdiction.
Super-injunctions should be banned. The law should take place in public. That is our tradition.
Also damages should be limited to financial redress for the loss sustained by the injured party. It is no part of civil law to punish people.
There is another common law jurisdiction - the USA - where things seem to work better, maybe we should just borrow their law.
198. Punter , I should have added that they are in hock to an English bank called Lloyds, though owned by the shareholders at present. Their debt is not exactly a fortune and is less than premier teams pay for a player.
Capellos one mistake as England Manager.
Making this trailer trash Captain.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/647166/TERRYS-ALL-SOLD-John-Terry-in-secret-cash-scandal.html
198 No sneering. Simple question. They are up for sale with the Manager working with no contract so they look in difficulty more than most. No pleasure taken. Good luck to them.
205 Why does that matter? The income of the SPL is nothing compared to the Premier League. That’s why they were desperate to join. As a proportion of revenue it bears comparison.
128. David H. The other consideration is where those ‘labour abstainers’ are located?
We know that the lowest turnouts tend to be in Labour’s inner city strongholds and a good proportion of them will be located in these inner city consituencies. I find it hard to believe that in such constituencies (being as safe as they are) even if these people are somehow mobilised to vote it will have any substantive effect on the outcome of the election, except potentially to lose a handful of seats to the Libdems.
Consequently, my view is even if Labour do manage to almost fully mobilise their natural vote, a lot of it will be wasted as it is located where it does not matter. The problem for Labour is that their vote elsewhere is soft not only to the Conservatives but also to the Libdems and other parties. Given the disaster the Brown Government has been, such voters will not be easily persuaded to choose Labour again for a long time.
207. Punter, hard to believe the size of the club that the debt of £30M is such a big deal, it can only be what Murray wants for his hsres that is the issue. Considering the value of the stadium, team, worldwide support etc it seems unbelievable that someone would not buy them. More to it than meets the eye I think.
As ever HBOS were in the mix.
204 - The US has a much more responsible - you might even say ponderous - press. Can you imagine what fun the News of the World would have being able to admit that what it had published was untrue but still being able to get off on the ground that the claimant hadn’t shown that the News of the World had no honest belief in what was being claimed?
The question of damages is a hard one in libel claims. Will a musician ever be able to show that a CD wasn’t sold because a reader decided he didn’t want to put money in the author’s pocket because of a false accusation? It may be easy to show lower record sales, but hard to show exactly why. The approach of English law giving directions to a jury but then leaving it to them to assess seems to me a very sensible one.
The question about the privacy and extent of injunctions is a specific matter that does need to be looked at and is not confined to libel cases. The courts certainly need to be reined back in on this worrying recent development.
181. I agree that Labour is not always the beneficiary of a higher turnout. 1992 was a good example of this - lots of Tory voters who had decided to abstain or vote LibDem came out and voted Tory again following Kinnock’s Sheffield rally rant. A lower turnout would have produced a hung Parliament that year.
I tend to the view that a high turnout benefits the’unpopular’ party of the day.Tories are going to vote next time - including many who stayed at home at the last 3 elections - even if turnout is just 50%!If , however, turnout rises to 65 - 70% , I suspect that not only will the Tory abstentionists be voting but Labour will have had a fair degree of success in getting its own vote out.
196 Edmund, that is a very good point about the right to reply.
I meant to add to my post, that there are occasions where was was found to be a libel in a court of law is later found to have been true, and the person who brought the case to have been lying.
In this case, I think that the person who originally was forced to pay damages for libel should be able to counter-sue, or to have the case re-opened.
208. Punter , absolutely and they would be happy to go and play in the championship as well. They are too big for the league they are in , much better would be the North Atlantic league that was proposed years ago with similar teams from other small countries.
I cannot see them ever getting into the Premiership unless SKY want it to happen, the teams will not vote themselves out of the premiership, just as the other SPL teams in Scotland prevent any progress in case they lose their payments from the Old Firm.
212. I think that is what hapened in the Archer case - the NOTW got their money back.
The fact that Archer won that case in the first place speaks volumes about the need to reform the law.
Let me get this right. Gordon Clown went to Copenhagen determined to make the world colder. Now we are all shivering and slipping in some of the worst winter weather we have had a for a long time. Surely Gordon is going to make a statement taking the credit and telling us all how wonderful it is now that it is so much colder? Must be votes in it surely?
UK Met Office, those of the dodgy data etc and part of the Global Warming consensus forecast a mild winter I think to follow their forecast of a hot BBQ summer. Great Computers they have at the Met Office. Basic rule I think it to read their forecasts and assume the exact opposite.
Remember this group of players?
Terry Butcher, Chris Woods, Ray Wilkins, Mark Walters, Gary Stevens, Nigel Spackman, Trevor Steven, Mark Hateley, Paul Gascoigne, Rod Wallace.
Most them were current England internationals who signed for Rangers.
Having just read a number of varied, insightful and apt comments, is there an elegant way of showing approval without a thread filling and somewhat tedious ‘good point’ or ‘excellent comment’ comment? Something equivalent to the HYS approval button?
Stuart Dickson, I agree there is anecdotal evidence of global warming - certainly in the UK.
Since the 80s, winters have gotten milder, Spring has arrived earlier, tropical butterflies are flocking to Stornoway etc.
This evidence is not to be sniffed at: it’s data from millions of people making minor observations.
However I would add that, anecdotally, it now appears that global warming has stopped. The last few summers in the UK have been washouts. Winters have recently returned to a severity we have forgotten - we have had big snowfalls even down south in the last couple of seasons.
Further afield, America has experienced record low temperatures and blizzards. Ditto China. Etc etc.
If you accept one kind of anecdotal evidence you must accept the other. The fact is global warming *appears* to have come to a halt: a phenomenon which the warmists admit (in secret) completely perplexes them, and for which they have no coherent explanation.
191 Libel law is unusual in that the burden of proof is on the Defendant, rather than the Claimant. And quite a lot of material that would be considered fair comment in most juristictions, is actionable here.
In practice, it is not ordinary people who sue for libel. It is powerful people who are quite capable of looking after themselves.
Alan Johnson’s facile point about ID cards being good for young people is idiotic. Everyone I know uses a driving license, whether provisional or full, to get into bars and clubs. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anyone take a passport on a night out.
So his main argument for them now appears to be that they can replicate something that already exists and is perfectly effective. Brilliant.
215. If the weather is getting colder, that proves that the climate is getting warmer. Don’t you know anything?
210 In the Premier League undoubtedly but stuck with the pitiful income of the SPL and playing with respect teams that no one outside Scotland has heard of your Dunfermlines etc are not household names in Africa as opposed to the Villas, Arsenals and Chelseas every week even the biggest Billionaire may think twice about buying.
84. A MORI poll showing a lead of 3% was plausible because, frankly, we have come to expect nutty results from MORI.
I reckon the Tory lead is about 12-ish points. Maybe it’s 10, maybe it’s 14; dunno, and neither do those who will cast the relevant votes yet.
Extremes of polling merely suggest to me that, if samples can be found giving a 17-point and - slightly less frequently - a 9-point lead, then a result above 12 seems likelier than one below it.
If I were going to predict the result I’d say 43 / 27 / 19. My actual betting position is Labour under 28%.
220. Johnson really is a dimwit. How he ever got to be a postman I can’t imagine.
I note the usual round of Bob butt kissing the moment the old sage posts.
The explanation he offers doesn’t explain the wild swings his firm’s bad methodology produces. The PBR will simply not have had THAT MUCH impact. To suggest it has smacks of pinning a mad result on some ‘events, dear boy, events’.
The sycophancy some people show when ‘It’s Kerry’ appears is baffling. Especially after a week or more of laughing at Mori.
219 - There is certainly a problem about access for ordinary citizens to the law of libel. That said, the overlap between those people who would want to sue for libel and those who are able to do so is quite substantial, because a disproportionate number of people who appear in the newspapers are rich.
I really don’t see what is wrong with expecting someone who has made a statement that is objectively damaging to someone else to have to justify it - they are the ones that have caused the damage. Otherwise we just get into a world where things are accepted as true because “everybody knows” they are true.
211 Wikipedia says at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libel#United_States
Would seem a reasonable place to start in reviewing the libel laws.
220 AndrewG. I said exactly the same thing when I heard him say it. It was a truly lame argument.
Furthermore, more and more I coming to the view, watching that performance that he really is dull (in all senses of the word). Nice enough but as dull as they come. To me he really just doesn’t have the spark to be a leader. He’s just a grey man in a grey suit.
214. I would have thought Robert Maxwell’s repeated use of the law over many years to prevent publication of the details of his nefarious activities was a much better example.
221. This is horribly close to the official explanation that while it seems to be getting colder, ‘the underlying trend’ is getting warmer. You have to be very very clever to understand that one.
218 - Anecdotally I would say that summers have been wetter and longer in recent years (I expect good weather through October now).
O/T Did Stuart Dickson really call football ’soccer’ upthread?!?
218. “If you accept one kind of anecdotal evidence you must accept the other.”
True, which is why it’s sensible to forget all about anecdotes and instead stick with the overwhelming scientific evidence in support of man-made global warming. I groaned on the recent Question Time when a woman in the audience started going on about Cockermouth as if that was some kind of proof, leaving what I thought was an open goal for Melanie Phillips. Fortunately I underestimated the capacity of Ms Phillips to…well, just be herself basically, because she then blew the chance to look the logical, rational one by starting to witter on about polar bear numbers, and other traditional Coldists’ Castle favourites.
210. “Considering the value of the stadium, …”
But what value does a football stadium have, as anything other than a football stadium?
Would e.g. Clyde or Pollok FC fill Ibrox Stadium if they bought it?
Where could Rangers play if they sold it?
The answers to these questions are “no” and “nowhere”, so Ibrox Stadium cannot, in practical terms, be either bought or sold. Therefore it has no value.
218 “I agree there is anecdotal evidence of global warming - certainly in the UK”
An uncharacteristic lapse from Tom Knox there.
Evidence of climate change in the UK - whether anecdotal or not - is not evidence of global warming. It is evidence of purely local climate change, which may or may not be linked to evidence for changes in the global climate.
Wells on this month’s MORI sample:
However, the biggest difference between this month and last is the make up of the sample itself. The past vote breakdown in this poll was CON 22%, LAB 28%, LDEM 9% (the equivalent, if you exclude did not votes and so on, of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 14%). Compare this to last month’s past vote breakdown of CON 19%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10% (the equivalent of CON 29%, LAB 46%, LDEM 16%). It is the lack of political weighting that has produced such extreme switches in support in MORI’s recent polls – ICM last weekend had a similarly pro-Labour sample, but their weighting brought it back to showing a much smaller swing.
Tables:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/poll_Dec09monitortables.pdf
232 - Drudge is (predictably) crazed over that, his website is packed with examples of cold weather and snow, reported in such a way that he obviously thinks that isolated weather occurrences mean something.
232. You think computer modelling is more reliable than observing what is happening? Easy to get sniffy about anecdotes, but there are no other methodologies that are that convincing. No more reliable than the polls in fact.
We can see the BBC has decided that the Scandinavian jomboree was a fiasco. Watching BBC Intl and not a word so far on it. Time to bury bad news?
Had Gordon saved the world (again) he’d be on all our screens. I also see the One is now wittering on about health care. Good to see he won’t touch anything associated with the (other) Saviour of the Universe with a sh!tty stick. That way he might yet have a chance to lose decently in 2012.
216. Certainly do and they were all great players too.
237. The modelling exercises, apart from being rather easy to rig (I’ve done plenty of that sort of thing in my time), are generally failing to produce accurate out of sample predictions, which is the only proper basis on which they can be judged.
230 Global warming = Swingback!
235 So is it possible to produce a rule of thumb weighted result for both this and the last MORI?
222. Punter , however the brand must be worth a lot, think of the merchandise etc you could sell and they sell out a 50,000 stadium every week.
232 You have proved on a previous thread that you have neither read the IPCC reports nor the UEA emails by your epic Grayling-style fail of not knowing who Trenberth is. I am not sure that your beliefs about what “the overwhelming scientific evidence” says are terribly persuasive.
Re 235.
I see the 6-10 figures from the Mori poll are:
Con 40
Lab 28
LD 19
So this poll is fairly consistent with other polls.
The Man Made Global Warming Believers are a at best emotional nappy wearers and at worse a dangerous cult of Salem Witch Fynders.
242/245 - I think Wells is coming to the conclusion that the last result was due to oversampling of Labour, which is not a problem with this poll. However the focus on 10s is still a bit of an issue which causes these fluctuations so I do still think MORI needs to be taken with caution.
JSFL the figures are fairy consistent I’d agree, so either this proves ICM weightings are pretty darn good or that MORI will still struggle due its reliance on the construction of the sample that they randomly achieve.
Sky just shown another classic Gordo picture. Merkel, Sarkozy, Obama and Gordo all sitting around in a room. The first all talking all listening to one another intently, Gordo completely in a world of his own, seemingly ignoring them, doing what he does whenever Cameron speaks in HoC. For somebody supposedly saving the world, wouldn’t it help if he listened to what 3 of the most important world leaders had to say?
Also, Boulton doing putting some positive spin on the 17% poll, saying but but but it is only really 10%, has been that since the start of the year. Mentions the 12% poll, then ignores ARS poll.
For anyone interested in the AGW thingy - I tripped across the most interesting video this morning.
It’s a TV documentary from 1990 - it’s like stepping back in time, but to today.
It discusses the same issues that have been exposed by Climategate/selective data-fiddling/apocalytic predictions.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/12/back-to-future.html
The first all -> the first three
243 Yes but so painfully limited in what they would be in the PL. If you are a Billionaire you want the best, the best players the best League etc. Do you think your Ronaldos even if you had the cash would agree to play against Dunfermline in the SPL. Almost certainly not. Rangers v Liverpool or Celtic v Arsenal every week would be fantastic entertainment. Shame it is unlikely.
O/T But Fraser Nelson reckons Mandy could run for Mayor of London. Worth a thread?
252 - Mandy against BoJo?
Might be worth a thread just to laugh at what the result would be. 70/30?
On Sir Bob’s comment about the untapped reserve of Labour voters Table 9/10 detail the undecideds. It shows:
CON: 13%
LAB: 21%
LIB: 12%
147
Polly B
I agree Cameron was damaged on the referendum issue… if you noticed. Surprisingly enough, my neighbours NEVER discuss the EC and its treaties so frankly it’s an irrelevance to them.. (But I agree it damages trust: IF you believe what politicians say. In my view anyone who does is a naive, ignorant and a danger to themselves.)
218 234
Anecdotal evidence..
I of course did not claim that what I see confirms AGW. GW is a fact - see 18,000years ago when where I type would have been covered by 2 miles of ice.
But anyone who has done any serious reading on climatology - not computer models from warmists - but actual history of what has happened KNOWS that warming and cooling move in cycles which are erratic and so far not forecast with any accuracy. Which is why I am an agnostic on AGW.
Anyone but anyone who denies global warming (and cooling ) does not exist is a nutter who must surely believe the world was created in 4,000BC…complete with fossils etc..
Anyone who belives man can control the global temperature to within 2C is equally a nutter and should be banned from all government funding.
Note my carefully and deliberate comments on AGW versus GW.
I can recommend The National Geographic June 2007 “the Big Thaw” for some Facts on GW. (as opposed to AGW)
Ohhh, hello, from Guido,
“Think that Sion Simon has some serious explaining to do about lack of receipts for rent supposedly paid to his sister.”
253 Fraser reckons Boris may not run and the Tories could be seriously unpopular with spending reduction by then.
Greg Dyke, the former BBC director-general, has recommended the abolition of the licence fee after almost 90 years, in a report commissioned by David Cameron.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article6962883.ece
From the Boulton bit it was clear he still wants the hung parliament narrative to run with. I don’t think the media are going to let go of that bone anytime soon, unless the 17% poll becomes the norm (which I doubt).
But couldn’t they find a better person to be mayor than Mandy?
Ruddy hell, I’d rather have Ken!
Oh dear
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6847227/Questions-over-business-deals-of-UN-climate-change-guru-Dr-Rajendra-Pachauri.html
260 If Mandy wants it he’ll surely get their nomination. He controls the Labour machine and that’ll be it. Whether they could do better wouldn’t matter.
260 As it happens I think Boris will run. A successful Olympics if he could pull it off would answer the can you imagine Boris on the steps of Number Ten seriousness charge perfectly. I think he has to run for that reason if he ever wants to be PM.
260 – Re: Mandy for Mayor.
Mandy may be admired for his Machiavellian behaviour within the Whitehall bubble, but has there ever been a poll carried out on his ‘personal ratings’ do we know how he is generally perceived by ‘we plebs’ outside the bubble ?
I believe the good citizens of London may have a different opinion as to what constitutes a ‘good’ mayoral candidate and suspect poor Mandy may well fall short on that score.
263 Depends how unpopular the Tories are and if Boris runs but see 263.
258 Er, yeah, but he wants it directly funded from general taxation instead. Which would put under even greater state control for a start…..
264 see 263 even.
227 On balance, I think one should only be entitled to sue if there is an element of negligence, or malice, about the untrue publication.
Publishing something which is untrue, but published in good faith, should not be actionable IMHO.
At this rate will anybody vote Labour (other than the brain dead)?
Charities face £20m ‘tax’ for playing music
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6844240/Charities-face-20m-tax-for-playing-music.html
Doesn’t this kind of thing go completely against the ethos of anything Labour is supposed to stand for?
269 (cont) Didn’t Mandy holiday with some big whig from the industry this year?
266 IMO the best way of dealing with the BBC would be to give it 4 years’ notice of the end of state funding and let it come up with its own ideas about funding.
268 How do you think Mandy would do if he ran for Mayor both in a V Boris scenario and under a non V Boris scenario. Could he win?
87. You mean, when the facts change, and more information becomes available, people change their minds, wow. Strangely however, the threads dont reflect the bias you claim, many on here are still quite strongly rubbishing mori for its unreliability, despite showing such a large lead. You need to get back into your box.
271
I think that the licence fee should be cut over a 10 yr period drop it about £15 quid a yr and let the BBC take equivalent revenue amounts of advertising. It would be less painful for commercial tv and give it time to adapt.
Unless its sport, I never watch tv as it happens, Sky plus meands an hour prog is condensed into about 40 mins by the time youve fast forwarded thro the adverts and trailers. Saves loads of time.
‘Doesn’t this kind of thing go completely against the ethos of anything Labour is supposed to stand for?’
Doens’t pretty much everything they do?
236/246 etc: Thanks to SthLondonNick for spotting the same details that I was about to post about - yes, looks as though the differences from the other polls are entirely due to the 10/10 issue and the difference from the previous MORI primarily down to the sample.
On Andy Cooke’s point - no, I think Tory and Labour canvassers alike are familiar with a large body of “Labour if I vote but I may well not bother” voters, and I think the relatively good Labour score in the (say) 5 to 9 out of 10 certain range is quite genuine. Someone (Anthony wells, or Populus?) a while back published a survey of whether people thought they’d vote and later of whether they said they had, and the proportions were pretty accurate - i.e. 20% of the ones who said they were 2 out of 10 likely actually did.
This is almost certainly influenced by marginality and local party organisation, i.e. how far the voters have been identified and get pestered on the day, so parties with a fair number of activists who keep up their canvassing are potentially going to mobilise those groups better than others.
271- As a Tory, I’m pragmatic about the BBC. It’s the only TV organisation we have that produces home grown high quality television. As such, I don’t really want to tinker that much, save perhaps a small reduction in the fee.
275 - Well it does seem to be the case. However, this seems really really low even by New Labour’s standards of selling out their founding fathers beliefs. £20m is here nor there, and the result is punishing charities trying to help the poor, sick and vulnerable.
274 - Would sound the death knell for large scale independent television, they are a basket case because of low advertising revenues as it is, if the BBC start to take away more of that revenue they will fold, leaving the BBC as being even more powerful.
What ITV need to do is to go towards a subscription model, in fact the future will probably see the public paying much more for what they get now but needing a number of subscriptions to do so e.g. BBC, ITV, CH4. Maybe there will be the odd free channel such as BBC1 but the future is expensive.
130. It seems every US president starts their term of office declaring someone new as their special partner, and then something happens, and the america haters comes to the surface, and they realise, that when the chips are down, when their new fair weather friends have spent the aid you gave them, have drank themselves stupid on your goodwill, only one country defends the USA, only one country puts themselves forwards diplomatically, militarily, and culturally, in support of the USA, and that is the UK of GB and NI.
268. Sean Fear
What about when that falsehood causes serious damage to that persons (and/or his family’s) life (loses employment / career, home, good name etc)?
To me too often the ‘good faith’ argument just doesn’t wash. If something is published then the people who publish it must be made to stand by it and be accountable for it and not hide behind ‘good faith’ (or dubious public interest) defences……
The UK government is to give a £2.5m loan to back England’s bid for the 2018 World Cup.
The money will be paid back along with a share of the profits from the tournament if the Football Association’s (FA) bid wins.
This week, the government also signed off on £300m of financial guarantees (i.e tax breaks).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8423132.stm
And what happens if we don’t win the bid?
“And what happens if we don’t win the bid?”
David Beckham the Government his kids’ pocket money for a week.
With the amount of money in football, it should fund this itself.
279. The dominance of the BBC at some point needs to be broken. We have various lefties at regular intervals, criticising the power and influence of the ‘murdoch media’, but the reality is, the total and utter dominance of the BBC, in radio, tv, and importantly in distribution of web news, turns all other broadcasters in the UK into minnows. The BBC is an enigma, it is a fat bloated, statist, pc publically funded nationalised broadcasting institution, yet it acts like a vicious aggressive monopolistic corporation, much like Microsoft.
Interesting argument on ConHome:
Blue Greens can triumph where Red Greens were defeated at Copenhagen. And as any artist knows Red Green = Brown
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2009/12/redgreenbluegreen.html
I have an open mind on whether AGW is happening not. However I very much support all efforts to reduce the rate of consumption of fossil fuels drastically in the interests of long term conversation of our planet’s resources. In this country there are also very good short term strategic reasons to move away from fossil fuel sources. The failure of this government to move on the need to build new nuclear fission power stations may prove in the end to be the biggest mistake contributing to our general economic decline.
I am interested in finding more information on progress towards building the first successful nuclear fusion power station. Is anyone here well informed on this subject as I have not been able to find a paper giving a good appraisal of the various related research projects arounf the World and their chances of success?
276 - NPMP. One thing I would caution with the leaners is that it only refers to around 103 unweighted out of a total of 1017, so somewhere around 10% of the total. If you convert all 21% that’s around 2% onto the total. In this poll (and I continue to act cautiously on MORI) you would reduce the lead by a commensurate amount which would still be a significant defeat. All of this assumes that the Tory Don’t Know voters sit on their backsides.
IMHO, in the end, governments loose elections but oppositions control the level of defeat. The 92-7 govt lost because of Black/White Wednesday. If Kinnock had been the leader in 97 I suspect it would have been a much smaller majority. Brown has done enough to cost Labour the election. The question is how much the Tories can do to control the scale of defeat.
Blair came along at the right time and did get a positive endorsement from many voters. The reality is that Cameron is liked by a lot more people than previous Tory leaders, so I think he will give a boost and bring some unexpected voters.
The cricket is looking up at present!
“The dominance of the BBC at some point needs to be broken.”
To an extent. We don’t tend to break dominant companies who are dominant due to their own success. The BBC’s operations in publishing, some local radio (not all-it’s a valuable training ground) etc can certainly be curtailed.
289. But the BBC’s dominant position has very little to do with its own ’success’.
279 I can’t see the licence fee surviving in a digital multi-media world as it is unfair on commercial rivals that their audiences subsidise the BBC, as everyone receiving TV on any medium has to pay even if they don’t watch. I’m happy paying BBC as I rarely watch ITV and can’t get Sky because of planning controls (old cottage in conservation area in an AONB - only line of site to satellite is from front of cottage).
Currently we are all also paying for digital switchover, so licence fee payers fund the freeing up of bandwidth which is then to be sold at no return to licence fee payers.
The Government should announce that the BBC should plan on becoming a subscription service, no advertising, but perhaps announce a public service fund, paid for from bandwidth licencing, to fund a proportion of public service broadcasting (BBCi, BBC2 & Radio 4 and 5 live?)
289 I disagree. Under John Birt’s muffled fist, it was doing rather badly. You had higher quality TV on the commercial channels.
Back when commercial TV started, much the same- the BBC was staid compared to the brash upstarts.
Now however it’s producing a good number of very high quality programmes, whereas commercial UK TV provides little of international note.
It is true that the licence fee provides an added advantage and that the protection afforded by it contributes to the BBC’s position. But it’s not the whole story.
291. Which is the *only* reason that the BBC jumped on the ‘freeview’ bandwagon, the overwhelming vast majority of freeview boxes have no option for encryption, as the specification does not demand one. This, the BBC knew, would save the bbc license for a generation, as there is no means to pick and choose subscriptions. A deliberate act by the BBC.
281 But what about when already rich and influential people win vast amounts of damages when there is no demonstrable threat to their earning potential?
Or, for example, if one of the stories about Tiger Woods screwing around was untrue, and he sued for libel? Hopefully he would get no damages as his reputation is already ruined.
The woman might be able to sue, however. (Although not if she’s a p0rn actress for example as it would enhance her reputation and earning potential).
287 - yes, fair points. For that matter, I’m not encountering that many ‘don’t knows’ at the moment, compared with previous times. I do accept that the Tories are currently 10-12% ahead nationally, obviously with local variations, though I differ from the common view here that the Tories are doing best in the marginals: I think they’re doing best in our (apparently) safe seats. The election outcome becomes IMO very unpredictable if the lead drops to around 6%, which seems to me within the plausible range, depending on events!
I’m going to be away for much of the Dec 24-Jan 8 period and need to do stuff before then (write a few Xmas cards, for instance), so will probably not be posting much for a while. One big canvass this afternoon will wrap up our electioneering for this year.
280-haha! Remember how in 1989 Bush I’s first foreign visit was to Germany and how much delight the usual suspects took in pointing out Germany was now the US’s best buddy. Ever.
Where was that fraud Clinton’s first trip to?
279, 284, 289 etc
If the BBC is responsible for raising its own income, surely competition between it and ITV would be fair, and if one or other of them went t1ts up it would be no concern of the Government.
Although there is an argument that the BBC is in an advantageous position due to its history of state funding, and therefore it ought to be split into a number of “Baby BBCs” first.
295 But how much can you believe what you hear on the doorstep? There’s the “of course I’ll vote for you” to make you go away. Or, for example, if my MP James Arbuthnot turned up on my doorstep* I would give him a very hard time over his shameless troughing and say my vote was at risk - but in practice I will vote Tory anyway.
* He won’t, NE Hants is a very safe seat.
292. You are right, that the BBC is the best producer of original tv in the UK at the moment. It is the fact that the BBC is infested with left of centre thinking which it pushes into programme making and commissioning, it intentionally projects a reality of how it wishes the UK was, rather then how it is. Some of it is quite insidious, devious, and damn right dangerous.
But despite some of the quality output, it is wrong to assume that commercial outfits cant produce good output. The output of many american companies puts the BBC and other uk broadcasters to utter shame. We dont have anything like the energy and breadth of new ideas, and when we do get something good, the way that shows are produced here, means that we get a run of six episodes a season, instead of between 12 and 24.
I’d rather call the BBC what it is - state television.
The sooner it is put back in its box as a PSB the better - it has parked its tanks all over the media and has squashed out virtually all else.
The whole Climategate scandal was the final nail for me - knowing that one of their weathermen had at least some of the leaked emails in mid-Oct and nothing was done about speaks volumes.
261 - that was interesting plato, thanks
One small portion lept off the page to me
“Although Dr Pachauri is often presented as a scientist (he was even once described by the BBC as “the world’s top climate scientist”), as a former railway engineer with a PhD in economics he has no qualifications in climate science at all.”
297 - One of the most damaging aspects of the BBC and its dominance over other UK broadcasters is the mopping up of talent* that would otherwise germinate in the private sector. Breaking some parts of the BBC into baby bits would be a good first step to privatisation.
*‘Talent’ equals technology – new formats etc and not the Jonathon Ross kind of talent.
I watched Frost/Nixon last night. Frost was reviled by his contemporaries. One said that the only action of his life he regretted was saving David Frost’s.
Makes you wonder who the goodguys are and who the badguys are.
Instinctively I would guess that most of you would have left David Frost to drown but would have busted a gut to save one of his decryers.
291 What is the argument for subsidising broadcasting? Especially when the public finances are f*cked. It can hardly be a priority. We don’t think that newspapers are a public service, and should be receive a public subsidy, and the Internet, which is arguably far more important, has been allowed to grow through the market mechanism. Broadcasting, which is merely entertainment with a bit of information thrown in, should be treated the same.
Especially in the current financial circumstances, subsidising the arts, broadcasting, etc is a luxury we can’t afford and the tap should be turned off. Maybe at a rate of 20% per annum, so by the end of the next parliament institutio’s would have had time to source alternative funding (or cease to exist).
295. ”I’m going to be away for much of the Dec 24-Jan 8 period and need to do stuff before then”
job hunting are we
303 The film does take a few licences with history so don’t take it as word for word or anything.
“But despite some of the quality output, it is wrong to assume that commercial outfits cant produce good output”
I wouldn’t assume that at all - I agree with you on the US for example. But I can only look at what we have to draw any conclusions, and our commercial channels are just horribly poor. One issue is critical mass. Our TV watching population is far, far smaller than that of the US, and it may not be able to sustain US style output.
I’m also not keen on ideological or political tests for production.
291. Ted
I’m a little less convinced that subscription services are the way forward than most as it seems to me that so far in this country the only really successful subscription model for general viewing has been Sky’s where they provide fairly large bundles of channels (10 plus channels) for a relatively small monthly subscription (a tenner). The C4 venture into subscription TV was abandoned. That Irish Sports Channel went bust last year and although its only an impression, given the amount Sky are plugging it and given the recession, I get the feeling that Sky are struggling to sell HD subscriptions.
My view is Sky are in the process of hitting the profit ceiling because people are now getting sick of paying more and more for equipment, repair, maintenance and services when the quality of that service and supporting equipment is no better now than it was 10 years ago (todays news reports about poor reception for example).
It seems to me that the BBC neither have the volume of services nor are the economic conditions for them to create a viable subscription package. If they were offering say 5-10 TV channels and some dedicated radio channels (which is about all I suspect they could put together) for a tenner a month then it wouldn’t be worth it IMO.
306- Punter. Expand please.
308 But one model would be for the BBC to sell its channels to providers on bundled services, not direct to the viewer.
303 Superb film, URW, with some outstanding performances, notably by the two pricipals. Nice that Frost wasn’t portrayed as some kind of angel, nor Nixon as demonic. Made the whole thing plausible and engaging.
308 - To put things into perspective, Sky only gain 6% of revenue from advertising.
It would be relatively easy to provide ten BBC TV channels, they are pretty much there already - 1, 2, 3, 4, CBBC, CBeebies, BBC News 24, add a ‘BBC gold’ type channel, somewhere to put all the red button stuff they broadcast and a film channel and you’re there.
The thing with splitting the BBC up is that you create even more effective competition against other channels, whereby the BBC’s famed sclerotic management is streamlined and improved.
The word is that ITV is going to go subscription already, apart from ITV1 at the moment, when the new guy takes over. It could be the breaking of them, people think they already pay for it through adverts so won’t be happy at paying again.
309 For instance the scene where Frost and Nixon talk on the phone before Nixon talks in the interview. Frost says that didn’t actually happen and was put in the screenplay for dramatic reasons. Not sure if they took other licences as well.
310. True but then it will be subject to that broadcasters requirements as much as it would be a public service provider.
Effecitively, to that end, it would stop being an independent broadcaster. Whilst the nuances are subtle, it would mean that the very nature of the BBC potentially would change.
Some news from NI for GE2010 for Punter in particular:
Sylvia Hermon has, not surprisingly, rejected DUP attempts to win her over and is 80% on to stand as an independent if the UU/Tories decide to go with Mr Smug looking Ian Parsley or AN Other.
South Belfast, it looks like an agrred UU/Tory candidate may well come through in the shape of the Tories’ Peter McCann. Michael McGimpsey, the former UU standard bearer is a busy man at Stormont so hes out and the other leading South Belfast UU light Bob Stoker isnt big on the Tory UU link up.
307. “I’m also not keen on ideological or political tests for production.”
Neither am I, but that is what we are subject to right now. And it pains me, because i think the BBC does an excellent job on many the things it does do, but it has been completely and utterly captured by a politically correct, right on ideology, which it has implemented with a serious amount of rigour. I dont want to carry on ranting, because it is a switch off for many. I find the BBC frustrating because when it does produce vomit inducing PC nonesense, its usually pretty darn good pc nonesense.
add a ‘BBC gold’ type channel,
Don’t the BBC already own a sizable stake in UK TV, that has G.O.L.D, Dave etc?
302 That’s only part of the story.
There is currently a big problem facing commercial non subscripton broadcasters - it’s TIVO/Sky Plus and internet. Adverts are skipped, fast forwarded. The answer for ITV is “live TV”; programmes people want to watch as they happen such as I’m a Celebrity and X Factor. ITV can’t afford the big sporting occasions so it has to invent Big Occasion TV. Soaps were the big draw and even now will bring in large live audiences for the climax episodes (who killed/will x be jailed/will y find out) but production values fall as advertisers demand more and more action, less and less story.
It’s hard now to imagine, as I well remember, how people were hooked on Brideshead (I recall on one morning train people saying “why doesn’t he say anything?” and you knew it was Charles Ryder’s silence in one particular episode) but that’s not because the BBC has stolen the talent, or because of its cross platform dominance, it’s because ITV cannot get the same audience in the new world of broadcasting. A Brideshead type programme would be a massive flop today.
312 - Sorry, thought you said ‘would’ pay £10, in which case I disagree, the cost of Sky with hundreds of channels that people never watch is an example, most don’t watch more than the main channels anyway (and pay for extras such as sport and movies).
New thread btw…
313 Many thanks, Punter. That is just the sort of detail I was looking for.
The character of Nixon made the film and his tragedy was that he was a really funny guy who never made anyone laugh.
I can identify with that.
The world’s tragedy was somewhat different.
PtP.Ideally you needed Frost to play Frost and Frank Langella to play Nixon (fautes de mieux). It was a thoroughly engaging film and could have been even longer and better.
312. UK Paul
I didn’t mention advertising. You miss my main point and perhaps I was not clear in that. My main point is that Sky have milked the ‘Golden cow’ of subscription channels pretty much to the maximum, perhaps overly so. I’m not convinced there is much room left in the TV channel market place for additional mainstream subscription TV. Of course I may be wrong.
That said those of us with Sky already pay for these channels effectively (their base Sky subscription) so it will not be an easy ride trying to persuade people to pay for them again…….
As I’ve said on here before, I don’t think in reality public opinion has shifted much, once the polls settled down post conference season. Some elements in the media are desperate for a partial Labour recovery, in order to hoist the hung parliament scenario, but I firmly believe the electorate has made its mind up, just as they had with the last Conservative government in 1996/97. The dynamics are similar, strong poll lead in the main with just the odd rogue poll, and the government pointing to good local bye election results - I learnt the hard way on that one during that time - Labour is coming from an incredibly low base so any result now is bound to look relatively good, especially in circumstances where a Tory has had to resign in unfortunate circumstances. Any spolight back on the economy for Labour is going to be bad, especially in the New Year when those credit card bills are landing on the doorstep.
I haven’t had a look marginal seat by marginal seat, time to have a look at that over Christmas, and again when the election is called. If I was a Conservative party activist, rather than a most reluctant voter that I am, then I would be most concerned about the situation in Scotland - on current polling I just can’t see more than 4 being elected - DCT, D&G nailed on gain, and everything after that is questionable - East Ren, Ed SW, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, AbW & Kincardine etc - I think they’ll get a relatively unexpected gain somewhere ( I personally favour R&B from afat where they’ve been doing better in southern Scotland) - but a majority of say 60 and only 3 Scottish MP’s - that will play straight into the SNP’s hands long term - as if the economic challenges aren’t daunting enough already.
322 - I’m just surmising what would replace any licence fee, a £10 BBC per month fee for example (bolstered by other channels buying in) with something similar from ITV. Both organisations removing their channels from the Sky line up. It would mean people paying quite a lot more if they want to have the same provision but they would have a choice to do so.
12.PfP, I too am hoping that Mike will do a thread on this subject as well. Good to see Bob Worcester posting, and many thanks to him for putting up his full article last night, much appreciated.
His point about the dramatic drop in economic optimism in the +55’s was a key to this poll, and its something that Anthony Wells has noted can shift the polls over the last year.
“Yet in 2001, only 59% of electors in Great Britain voted; in 2005 61%. In 1959 and again in February 1974 watershed elections, the turnout was over 78%. To get to that level, the reluctant Labour supporters who’ve sat on their hands in the last two elections would have to turn out by the thousands, especially in the marginal seats.”
This is where I disagree with Bob Worcester, I think he is wrong to assume that its only reluctant Labour voters who have sat on their hands in the last couple of GE’s. IIRC, Mike penned an article awhile back about a very large Tory vote that simple disappeared after the 1992 GE. What is clear, is that as the shine came off Blair and his government back in 2005 so turn out started to increase again. And its also the first time since 97′ that the Tories started making gains as well, even if at that time it was still confined to certain area’s.
On the turnout in 2001 in particular, turn out was low because every one knew what the result was going to be and they were happy with the incumbent party. You have tended to find that even in some of the marginals I have looked at recently. If the Tories are going to manage to achieve a majority this time around, I think they need turnout to increase in those very marginals they are targeting, particular where there is an SNP or Libdem incumbent who has been sitting on a majority with a turnout of 60% or less over the last couple of elections. For all the talk about squeezing the third parties vote etc, it could be the extra voters that turnout that make the difference.
325 - agree with that, and turnout is very much the one piece of the jigsaw that I haven’t got a firm opinion on what is going to happen in the seats that matter - turnout definitely up but to what extent? Across the whole country, I don’t think the increase will be dramatic, because the seats like Liverpool Riverside and other Labour banker seats with very low turnout, I think could fall even more in a plague on all your houses type scenario, but that will be minor in significance compared to what happens in the 150 seats that will decide the election.
323.hunchman, on the issue of Scotland, remember that the SNP also have to perform well at this GE too. They cannot bang on about the Tories being irrelevant up here if they don’t have the seats to back this point up themselves. And its no coincidence that they are so focused on that Tory seat share on these very threads, yes they want the Tories to do badly to aid independence, but they also need them to do so if they are to hold or advance their own seat share.
I have to say that you are much more pessimistic than I am right now, and I live up here. Often forgotten, there is a very clear anti Labour vote in parts of Scotland, and it just so happens to be where the Libdems/Con/SNP fights are.
Mori poll – England only – unweighted base 860 respondents
Con 46% : Lab 26% : LD 20% : Green 3% : UKIP 3% : BNP 2%
327 - I’d never pretend to know as much as you about Scottish politics, although I do have a brother and sister-in-law that live in the Ed South constituency, and will be spending Christmas up there - a nice long drive from Oxfordshire!
I’ve never been sold on Ed S as a realistic Conservative gain - where do you see the gains coming - East Ren again I’m not sold on, should be but they’ve never really recovered there post Allan Stewart times, Ed S starting from too low a base and historic long term decline there, Ed SW again too far behind - that poll in the Scottish sub-sample that still showed Scot Lib Dem voters favouring Labour massively over the Tories - only a v small sub-sample but that has a large part to do with my pessimism over Tory chances in Scotland. R&B I don’t know the local situation on the ground, anything else AbW& Kincardine, Argyll & Bute, Stirling, Perth, Ochil they may fluke 1 gain, so where do you see the gains?
329.hunchman.
1)Check where this SNP administration is spending money right now. Angus and into Gordon/Moray. The very unpopular incinerator project has now been shelved in Perthshire.
2)Check out what is happening in the joint Libdem/SNP councils, particularly in Aberdeen and Edinburgh.
3)Its not just the public sector taking a hit due to the financial black hole in Aberdeen Council. The North sea Oil&Gas industry has been shedding jobs for over a year now, and even though there is a return to optimism in the global picture. The confidence in the longer term future of the North Sea has not. The longer term investment side of things was hit by the increased tax burden whilst Gordon Brown was still Chancellor. He used to it to fill in a much smaller black hole than the one we face now.
5)The recent bad news over the MOD finances has impacted sharply in the Moray area in particular.
6)Banking collapse in Edinburgh and falling out with the Whisky industry in the North of Scotland.
Seriously, Scottish polling is not great at the best times, and these small subsamples are not going to tell you about the above.
Also, check out the turnout in the Tory target seats over the last couple of GE’s and bear in mind this is the first that the Tories have been in contention to win a GE since 1992.
The SNP were the clear beneficiaries of the Holyrood election because they were seen as the vehicle to kick Labour and the Libdems out of power. And remember, the Libdems are tanking in the polls up here right now. And they are kidding themselves with this stupid STV local byelection results. If they ain’t winning it FPTP, then it doesn’t matter who anyone’s second or third preference is.
Now either this election will be an as you were GE up here, with no one effected or caring about the current economic mess or the war in Afghanistan, or voters will be very focused on their own situation and jobs and how the various parties are going to help or hinder them in the future. We don’t live on another planet, never mind a different galaxy up here. If its resonating down South, then its hitting us here too.
330.Also remember that the SNP are currently in power at Holyrood, but they will not be in contention to gain power in a Westminster GE.
Voting for the SNP in 2007 not only meant kicking Labour out, it also meant voting the same party into power. This time around, a vote for the Libdems or the SNP in many of those Tory target seats is not a vote to remove Labour from power, great if they are in predominantly Labour area’s with strong support for keeping the status quo, not so great if those seats have already shown a clear anti Labour sentiment at the 2007 elections.
216. Lurker Terry - remember the old adage about computers, big Met Office ones or not -”garbage in, garbage out”.
330 - all fascinating stuff. Trying to predict LibDem seats is tricky at the best of times, particularly where their support is so concentrated in Scotland. But after Ms Swinson in Dunbartonshire E, then how many LibDem seats can realistically fall? AbW & Kincardine, R&B, Argyll and Bute all possibles but plenty of doubt there.
Yes, the SNP have lost the lustre they had 12-24 months ago, but as a governing party, dismissing them as an irrelevance, which held credence at all Westminster elections up to and including 2005, not quite so easy now!
As fascinating as the last 48 balls in the cricket test match starting right now!!
332 - don’t get me started on AGW!!
Gripping finale to this Test Match - Graeme Swann to the rescue yet again?!
One question that has been bugging me - what happened to Printz in the end? - the ultra-passionate anti-Iraq war poster on here. Always admired him for his principled stand - probably the most passionate poster in the history on pb.com on here?
19 balls to survive - can we do it? What was KP thinking with that run?!
217.”Remember this group of players?
Terry Butcher, Chris Woods, Ray Wilkins, Mark Walters, Gary Stevens, Nigel Spackman, Trevor Steven, Mark Hateley, Paul Gascoigne, Rod Wallace.
Most them were current England internationals who signed for Rangers.”
Wasn’t there a recent European match between Celtic and an English team, and the only Brit on the pitch was a Englishman playing for Celtic??!! Says it all really. I remember the days of those players at Rangers, and so do Leeds!
Used to have a fantastic goalie, IIRC, the Leeds manager said he would have nightmares about him after he kept everything including the kitchen sink out of that Rangers goal.
new thread been up for a while…
339.MTF, I know, was just meandering my way down this one.