Just how much has the gap closed?
December 6th, 2009
Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda?
In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers.
Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s.
By contrast the Labour shares have been relatively stable. Excluding the November Ipsos-MORI poll, of which there has been much comment, Brown’s party is pretty much where it was in October.
Although Brown Central will be much cheered by their progress with ICM they would have preferred, surely, that across the board any narrowing of the gap to have been down to their own support showing a sustained move upwards.
The big trend, though, has been the continued robustness of the “others” share. UKIP/BNP/GREEN are continuing to hold onto their support.
Will this be across the board or could we see rising shares for “others” to be where it doesn’t matter. This segment’s smallest share in any poll was in the YouGov survey of northern LAB>CON marginals.
This coming week I’m expecting several surveys the first, hopefully, will be from Populus for the Times tomorrow night. This has been having Labour in a slightly better position than the other firms - it had a 10% lead in October which was repeated in November.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st ?
1-Yes
Mike - have a look back to just before the conferences. The ironic thing is for all the heat and light of the conference season, Toffs etc… It has made pretty much no difference to where the ICM & YouGov polls were just before…
Congratulations URW!
I see from the last thread Labour’s class war strategy has fallen apart already.
Quite amusing to see Tim claim everyone else has missed the point……
3 - Really?
ICM were 16, 17 and 14 in August/September.
The next couple of ICMs will tell us more, if theyy are 10 or under the tightening theory will hold, if not it won’t.
Thanks,SLN.You must be my neighbour.
It is unremarkable that the LAB share hasn’t increased as the theme has been support for OTHERS. 40% will do the Tories nicely and the challenge for Labour is to live in the same neighbourhood ( The 30s) as their opponents.
Afternoon all
Re: 3 - Indeed, we are largely where we have been since the autumn of 2005 with the Conservatives a shade above 40%, Labour a shade below 30% and the LDs a shade below 20%.
There have been a couple of shifts outside that zone but they haven’t endured and we are back in this, as I call it, 40+, 30-, 20-, 10+ zone.
4 - The significant thing about that article is that the Tories are in “damage limitation” mode on their flagship tax policy.
That’s cuts vs investment and now Tory toffs that have failed (again). What’s left for Labour, baby eating?
5. What if the next ICM is under 10 and then the two ICM’s in January are +10?
Put in sequence as above, the MORI ’splash’ poll looks ever more like the rogue it initially appeared to be.
8. Hmmm. It’s “not significant” tha 2 cabinet ministers publicly ditch their latest dividing line, but is “is significant” that The Guardian puts a leftie spin on Osborne’s words.
Yup, you’re onto another winner there.
Vote Labour!!!
“Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda?”
Certainly the media narrative has taken a bit of a thumping this month as the Ipsos-MORI’s 6 point gap in November has been shown to be an outlier. I suspect we shall see a lot more straw clutching in the MSM in the lead up to the GE as ‘boring & predictable’ rarely makes a good story or increases circulation.
Peston’s leaks not up to the usual standard
The Treasury is preparing to levy a windfall tax or super tax on British based banks, which could be announced as soon as Wednesday in the pre-budget report and would raise considerably more than £1bn a year for two or three years.
It is not 100 per cent certain that such a tax will be announced, because there are formidable practical obstacles.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/banks_face_windfall_tax.html
Best guess is a lead of 15% at the end of October has shrunk to about 10.5%. A projected Tory majority of 77 has evaporated (now just 1)…
Congratulations Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/6738681/Pre-Budget-report-UK-faces-decades-of-debt-warns-Treasury.html
“Pre-Budget report: UK ‘faces decades of debt’, warns Treasury
Britain faces decades of rising public sector debt, increasing taxes and, potentially, falling living standards unless it tackles the growing costs of its pensions and health bill, the Treasury will warn this week.”
They only now realise this?
“Earlier this year, the European Commission forecast that unless action was taken to cut state pension costs and healthcare bills, UK public debt would rise from around 60pc of gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 160pc by 2020, 406pc by 2040, and 760pc by 2060.”
“no more boom and bust!”
On topic - I have no doubt the conservatives will form next government.
Alhough “Others” are doing well in the Opinion Polls, they do not appear to be performing so well in local council by-elections, excluding the SNP. I know all the arguments about how relevant such contests are in relation to the national scene. But the high shares recorded in the Opinion Polls may well be a form of protest vote either to send a signal to the party who they will eventually vote for or as a more pronounced sign of abstention than “don’t know”.
I stand by what I said at the time. Bob W should have kept a lower profile.
He did a Brown. Short term tactics cost.
The ‘Sharp Minds’ have a Conservative Overall Majority as a 69% chance. I make that higher myself but you always have to respect the buggers.
Although “Others” are doing well in the Opinion Polls, they do not appear to be performing so well in local council by-elections, excluding the SNP. I know all the arguments about how relevant such contests are in relation to the national scene. But the high shares recorded in the Opinion Polls may well be a form of protest vote either to send a signal to the party who they will eventually vote for or as a more pronounced sign of abstention than “don’t know”.
FPT. Weathercock, look on Amazon US site , you will find a lot of them there.
16 - Hmm, seems a bit of a silly projection to me. Whatever you think of Brown and his management of the finances, he couldn’t have done more than make a pinprick into any projected Debt of 706 % of GDP! - note the “cost of pensions” referred to is unlikely to be anything to do with public sector pensions I’m afraid - more the cost of the state pension, increasingly relevant now that Private Sector pension provision has all but collapsed.
18. It does seem a rather desperate strategy, I agree. But perhaps it’s a case of ‘beggars can’t be choosers’
6 - Could well be. Could you turn the music down please?!?
You are right. Labour are supposed to be doing brilliantly, landing blow after blow and yet static would be kind. Alex Smith at UK Polling Report has this to say:
A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s Telegraph shows the recent Tory slipping has stuck - but that Labour have failed to take full advantage. The poll shows the Tories down two points on 40%, with Labour unchanged on 29% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%.
The poll would suggest recent hopes for a hung parliament may be premature; transferred to an election these new numbers would result in a Tory majority of 20. If the Tories hit 40% in the general election - which is likely - Labour will need at least 31% for a hung parliament. To retain a majority, Labour will need to change the game completely.
The task now will be for Labour to take advantage of the Tories’ failure to seal the deal. While recent polls have shown the Conservatives support is fragile, Labour has yet to capitalise with its own consistent increase. The gap is likely to continue to narrow over the next six months, but time is shortening.
In a second poll for tomorrow’s Times, the Tory lead has reverted back to 13 points, which is much the same place it was immediately after conference season.
That second paragraph shows the mountain they still have to climb to get anywhere near a victory. The fact that they are angling for a hung parliament shows the poverty of ambition. It will not resonate with the public.
If you want something amusing on this line to watch, enjoy the early phases of the 1992 election coverage where Jack Cunningham was ranting on about the Tories loosing the moral authority to govern. And then he vanished…
15. RodCrosby.
A lead of 10.5% would give a majority greater than 1 (a majority which is impossible on election night, anyway, since the number of MPs to be elected is even).
Well, well, well
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/6737797/Stitch-up-Now-France-excludes-Britain-from-special-talks-on-EU-farm-spending.html
“titch-up? Now France excludes Britain from special talks on EU farm spending
France has triggered a fresh row over EU power-broking by excluding Britain from key-Europe wide talks on the future of farm subsidies to be held in Paris this week. ”
“”While the French are pro-actively advancing their interests in Europe this Labour Government is yet again failing to exercise leadership.”
15. We’ve had about 2.2% of swingback in 5 weeks. Another 2.7% swingback and Labour become the largest party…
‘The fact that they are angling for a hung parliament shows the poverty of ambition. It will not resonate with the public.’
Worse still, I suspect it will scare them [all bar Rod C].
26 - thinking about it, didn’t labour give up our rebate for reform of the CAP?
Or did they give it up for nothing?
26
What the hell is this government doing?
25. OK then, just for you, the Tories are three short of a majority.
I project them on 323 seats, which, if the Shinners continue to abstain, constitutes a majority of 1 in a House of 645…
29 - Read the whole article Floater!
28 - several papers made that point over last two days. The markets pricing in a Tory win, if that seems less likely…….
24 - Thats a pretty good summary of the position.
Tory vote soft, but Brown as leader prevents Labour capitalising, the personal negatives are just too high, particularly in the Midlands.
Lib Dems targeting of the “We’re all in this together” hypocrisy is the right move for them to hold their seats.
12 - Labour doesn’t need to mention the schools issue now.
Camerons interview at lunchtime, when the cyber abolition of Public Schools by CCHQ was put to him will suffice.
He’s now promised to give the issue its own momentum by restoring the status of his candidates websites.
And for those who think he’s not bothered, his red head gave it away again.
@31:
You realise that simply making up numbers isn’t actually “projecting”, right?
32 -
If you claim that there has been “swingback” in the last 5 weeks then you would be best to acknowledge the “swingforward” in the weeks previous. Coz the polls at the top of Mike’s table, look awfully similar to the polls at the bottom.
31. RodCrosby: I project them on 323 seats, which, if the Shinners continue to abstain, constitutes a majority of 1 in a House of 645…
You’re continuing to assume with 100% confidence that there will be precisely five SF MPs.
Why?
27. RodCrosby: We’ve had about 2.2% of swingback in 5 weeks.
We’ve had about 4% of swingforward in 2009.
The position at the turn of the year was roughly 39-35-15. It’s now roughly 39-27-19.
What is badly needed is Robert Smithson’s long promised ‘Reverse VIPA’ article, which is the polar opposite of Rod Crosby’s ’swingback’.
Both of these hold extreme views and both need to be listened to.
26. It is clear that Blair’s argument that if the British govt is pro-integration we will gain influence in Brussels. It is clear this is complete fiction.
Despite what Sarkozy and Merkel said on their election victories, they are natural allies and Britain is an opponent. This is not their fault: it’s just that the European view on the world is fundamentally different to the Anglo one. While Britain and her colonies became modern nations based on private trade and freedom of the individual, the big European nations did it based on a powerful state and a belief in sacrificing oneself for the greater collective.
These two views of the world are fundamentally incompatible. If the European Union is to integrate as a single state (and we’ve now fully set all the legal groundwork for that with the Lisbon Treaty), then one of these views will have to buckle to be subsumed by the other. The numbers, regrettably, are not on our side, and two of our potential allies, Switzerland and Norway, are outside the EU.
For this reason Cameron must fully lunge a spanner in the works of integration and make sure it grinds to a halt. Any efforts to stamp out our economic model must be met with sheer refusal.The CAP must also be phased out - never has a policy benefited so few at the expense of so many. He actually has a lot of cards to play in negotiations. Every failing of the EU could be raised very publicly, and plastered on newspaper headlines from Dublin to Bucharest if we don’t get out way. The Eurocrat class would do anything to avoid that.
If this is not possible, we should leave the EU and join the EFTA again. I notice they signed a free trade deal with Canada the other day - why should we not be doing this? I am now very close to being in the Better Off Out camp.
“17.Alhough “Others” are doing well in the Opinion Polls, they do not appear to be performing so well in local council by-elections, excluding the SNP.”
The anger at troughing and corruption is for those at national level, if you look at individual results locally however then you can see who has suffered through local corruption issues.
@40:
You’re wrong, URW. RodCrosby is not worth listening to. He constantly alludes to his “methodology” but utterly refuses to subject it to any kind of scrutiny, probably because it doesn’t exist.
The most logical assumption is that Rod is basically trying to use technobabble to hide the fact that he’s pulling the numbers out of his arse.
31. Dost thou schwingbacketh thine slong at me?
The problem with assessing the polls now is that politics is like Strictly Come Dancing.
Osborne did his solo piece in October. In a sweeping, bravura but controversial performance, he was thought to have done well but to have been bold, even reckless in ignoring convention. Nonetheless, the judges gave him good marks, and the public - despite what his supporters feared - didn’t turn against him.
Darling will do his piece next week. Opinions differ on whether he will perform better than or worse than his rival, but we know that his costume is threadbare and there have been quarrels in the team about strategy. His chosen dance - Pirouetting on a pin-head - is thought to be one of the most difficult dances ever attempted, as it involves creating the illusion that the audience can be held up in mid-air until May 6th, by the sheer force of the dividing lines the dancer has to try to create.
Will Darling bring off the impossible? Until we know, we’ve got only one scorecard to judge by, and talk of swingback is certainly premature.
Rod C still sticking to the 10% lead or hung Parliament meme. Sorry but I think we will not have an anti-Tory tactical vote. Without tactical voting it’s probably somewhere between 7 & 8% assuming Labour turn out in safe seats and the over-representation of urban Labour versus suburban/rural Tory remains as it was in 2005.
Labour may do better as the anti-Iraq votes return in some seats but that will probably harm Lib Dems more than Conservatives. That excludes any better performance by Conservatives in target seats.
43. Martin. Since you’re here…
What are your thoughts on Google Wave so far? Would an election night wave be a useful way of capturing information?
Only half agree,Martin Coxall. In truth I disagree with Rod Crosby’s psephological assertions more than almost anyone on here.
That is to say I would just luv it if I could be his bookie. Nonetheless he has been saying the same things for years and even if they are the wrong things, they are worthy of notice.
In essence, the media are infinitely closer to the views of Rod Crosby than to those of Robert Smithson.
43 You’re one of my favourite posters.
Just as wise as PtP - rather less ‘reserved’.
Roy Hodgson for PM
Fulham 1 Sunderland 0
Senior Labour figures have recoiled from attacks on David Cameron’s privileged upbringing after the Tory leader branded them “spiteful”.
Ministers said Mr Cameron’s schooling at Eton was unimportant, in marked contrast to Gordon Brown’s criticism of Tory tax policy in the Commons last week.
The Prime Minister said the party’s inheritance tax plans appeared to have been “dreamed up on the playing fields of Eton”.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/labour+backs+off+from+class+war/3451962
35/43. Try using the “search” facility on PB.C
Con nailed on win!
The Sunday Times today shows that the class-war attack is still one which could prove very profitable for Labour, contrary to what some people have been saying.
50 - Roy Hodgson = Next England Manager.
No markets up, as far as I’m aware.
41. “26. It is clear that Blair’s argument that if the British govt is pro-integration we will gain influence in Brussels. It is clear this is complete fiction.”
It’s been complete fiction for 36 years.
Totally with you on the rest of your post but all that would require courageous leadership and extraordinary levels of determination and resolve.
The events of the last two months have more or less convinced me that Cameron’s team simply do not the stomach for it.
38. At the margins, one always has to make sensible estimates. I haven’t looked closely at the NI situation, but I estimate the chance of SF losing one seat is about the same as them gaining one, both unlikely. So 5 is a good prediction in my book…
49 But I’m a lot more lovely in the flesh, Sally.
Aren’t I, Martin?
I cannot understand (save for good taste and decency) why the Tories do not point out that the Permanent Secretary at the Treasury (appointed by G Brown, but still there under Darling)is an old Etonian. Given that he is actually the Senior Civil Servant in charge of the treasury, perhaps the “tax policy made on the playing fields etc” should rebound on Brown. HE is the one having the tax policies made there not Osborne (given he went to St Pauls..). Ho ho.
45. Alasdair Darling: “I am *not* a doddery Chancellor, doddery Chancellor I am…?!”
*AUDIENCE SILENCE*
54. Andy “contrary to what some people have been saying.”
The “some people” are Labour cabinet misters.
Rod, how much reverse swingback has there been since this time last year and how do you explain this?
27 - Rod aren’t you rather ashamed to be crowing that that small shift makes your lot the largest Party even though they would still be well behiund the Toies in % terms.If all this was reversed then if Labour enjoyed the present Tory lead they would be storming home to an absolute landslide.Nothing for you and your tribe to be proud of, especially as we have to listen day after day to your supposedly higher social and fairness values than the Tories.
56 Do most EU leaders want to get back on the EU Train? Seems to me that after years spent getting Lisbon/Constitution agreed there isn’t the appetite currently for any EU Grand Project.
Failure in France, Netherlands and Ireland and knowledge that the UK will put anything big to a referendum (if Cameron wins) plus domestic considerations in trying to drive recovery probably means that there will be irritations but no great ideas for a while.
That was Delors great fear, that once the train halted getting it underway again would be difficult. It stopped and the appointments of non-entities to important posts shows no great desire to get steam up soon.
Lab have no chance of being the largest party - we just have to make sure we get enough seats to stop them and their high taxing LD friends from putting up the tax AGAIN after the GE!!!
63. It’s always wise before jumping in to research the person you are attacking. I’ve said umpteen time since I first started posting here 4 years ago: “I have never voted Labour in my life…”
I am not crowing about anything; merely trying to educate folk about the likely outcome of the election…
54 - You won’t get much sense out of the Tories on her regarding this issue.
You’ll note that they have been predicting for almost a year that the IHT issue was a smart move by Osborne, would be popular and wouldn’t be an election issue.
They are only now realising how wrong they were.
61 - Al Labour ministers are saying is,
Its not the schools its the hypocrisy of We’re all in this together.
59 - Have you thought of putting that on a poster?
65 - Lab have no chance of being the largest party
I’ll settle for a million to one if you’re offering.
And pledge to buy Watford FC with ant winnings.
62. The polls will always fluctuate and I’ve never claimed to be able to be able to predict short-term movements.
The swingback theory merely estimates what the outcome will be on polling day…
The question is whether the movement away from the Conservatives is Crosbyesque swingback towards the governing party or whether it’s a dip in the Conservative share due to Lisbon or some other cause.
It seems very significant to me that the Labour share has not increased by anything like the same amount. This all seems to have been about negatives for the Tories.
Considering RC’s prediction that both parties will poll in the 30s on election day, I think it’s quite possible the Tories will but I doubt Labour can keep their end of that deal.
Regarding RodCrosby’s post 66, can everyone please remember that the correct interpretation of the last sentence is “the outcome that I desperately want to be likely”.
He’s not a Labourite; he is a Tory hater.
66.
1. How do we know you’ve never voted Labour?
2. You may not be crowing tonight, but come on admit you have regularly gloated that theres going to be a hung parliament, a Lib/Lab pact, AV and the Conservatives will never again be able to form a government. Its no good trying to pretend your completely unbiased in this matter.
25 Leaving aside the question of whether or not the SF MPs continue to abstain, any overall majority is bound to be odd NOT even, since excluding the speaker’s seat, there are 649 other seats up for grabs at the GE, NOT 650.
64. “56 Do most EU leaders want to get back on the EU Train”
No. But that is because the train has arrived at its destination.
67. It isn’t and it won’t be.
You are just wrong on this tim. Sorry.
Now.. I must go and do some work.
The Mirror is running the “Its not the schools its the hypocrisy” line now.
Cameron’s pledge to fess up the fops on their websites has clearly convinced Labour that its best to let them dig the hole.
Chancellor Alistair Darling stepped up his assault on Tory plans to increase the inheritance tax threshold but admitted Mr Cameron’s schooling was unimportant.
“My view is to hand over a large sum of money to 2% of the largest estates doesn’t make any sense,” he said. “I don’t care whether David Cameron went to Eton or not. What I do care about is that I think consistently he is making the wrong calls, the wrong judgments and that would present a serious risk to our country.”
73. PfP: any overall majority is bound to be odd NOT even, since excluding the speaker’s seat, there are 649 other seats up for grabs at the GE, NOT 650.
Wrong, I’m afraid, since the three Deputy Speakers don’t vote either.
The three Deputy Speakers in the new Parliament will be one Conservative and two Labour to keep the political balance unaffected. (Well, I suppose there could be a LD or minor party Deputy Speaker replacing one of the Labour DSs (if the Conservatives are in government) or the Tory (if they’re not).)
69. “Short term movements?” Couldn’t this so called swingback be seen as a short term movement in a couple of months?
72.
i) because I said so, although I don’t entirely rule out the possibilty in 2010. I’m perverse like that - always vote for the underdog.
ii) I just think that outcome would be “interesting”, and that’s all that interests me…
66. I can’t be a “Tory-hater” since I voted for them, for the first and only time, in 1997. Do try to keep up!
Darling: I don’t care whether David Cameron went to Eton or not
Labour split! PM and Chancellor divided!
76 - What nooo, the Mirror running the Bunker line, never….
Strange how we never hear anything of “the deal” between Labour and the Mirror.
54 - How does it show that then?
What it says is that the vast majority of people who are likely to respond to this are not intending to vote Conservative anyway.
Nor sure how that is going to help Labour
67. tim December 6th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Not sure about the tactical unwisdom of the IHT policy. The Tories would attract “toff” fire regardless of what they did, and it will strike home with some people. It could be good for them that part of Labour’s attack on this front has become an attack on a proposed tax-cut.
76. Not The Mirror? Thats it for Cam then!
Bob Stewart selected for Beckenham
67 - No it’s not, that doesn’t wash. Any implication that politicians couldn’t make tax decisions which might happen to benefit them at some point is either an argument that we shouldn’t have politicians, or an argument that politicians shouldn’t pay any tax.
All politicians are wealthy if compared with the national average. It follows that they must never reduce taxes on anyone but the poorest because anything else would be “hypocritical”.
79. “ii) I just think that outcome would be “interesting”, and that’s all that interests me…”
Yeah right.
79. RodCrosby.
You voted for them once, over a decade ago, and therefore you can’t hate them?
That’s a bad logical fallacy even by your standards.
The mirror peddling lies, who would have thought it.
“The Treasury is preparing to levy a £1bn a year temporary windfall tax on British-based banks, BBC business editor Robert Peston has learned.”
Why don’t they just be honest and say Rob was sent a fax from the treasury where it states, or seemingly in this case Rob read the papers this morning….
76. Tee Hee. Let’s review…
The Great Gordo (saviour of the World, Leader of Men, and progenitor of bespoke banking regulation to bankrupt governments everywhere) says explicitly “it’s the school”
2 cabinet ministers come on live TV to distance themselves from that remark.
Now The Mirror (that well known organ of unbiased analysis) says “it’s a cunning plan”
Well, I’m convinced.
Vote Labour!!
91 - I’m waiting to see what James Macintyre has to say on the matter.
81 Oracle - There is a deal between Labour and The Mirror ?
Thanks for the heads-up,pal. Who would have thunk it ?
66
“63. It’s always wise before jumping in to research the person you are attacking. I’ve said umpteen time since I first started posting here 4 years ago: “I have never voted Labour in my life…”
I am not crowing about anything; merely trying to educate folk about the likely outcome of the election…”
I do not for one instant doubt you, but in general I think “I have never voted [name party] in my life…” is a profoundly illegitimate argument. Like “some of my best friends are Jews” it is both unverifiable and irrelevant. Posters are entitled to engage with you on the strength of your posts rather than your claims about what you may have got up to in polling booths over the years.
Alan Watkins in the Indy says of IHT “All the left-leaning commentators, without exception as far as I could see, obediently followed the line that not paying inheritance tax at the old rate was a conspiracy got up by old Etonians, aristocrats, millionaires, footballers and residents of Notting Hill.
And yet, it was the change in inheritance tax which set up the Tory revival in the first place. It is still going on. I will not say “going strong”, but there is enough power left in the battery to propel Mr Cameron into No 10.”
It remains the case tat a lot of people looking at their house, savings & life insurance think “IHT might hit my estate” if anything happened to me tomorrow. Many of them may not actually be right but its the fear that matters. Voters tend to be selfish.
From Muckguire,
“I won’t sulk if Brown mentions my old school”
Really, not sure the comrades you preach to would like to know you went to a selective school. Bet you would definitely do a sulk if they mentioned your wifes school.
73. The Speaker makes no difference to the outcome.
House 645 (assume SF do as they do)
Tories 323 (treat Buckingham as Tory seat)
outcome: majority 1
now, take away Speaker and deputies
House 641
Tories 321
outcome: majority 1
90. The fax has just arrived, cos an hour ago he wasn’t sure…
It is not 100 per cent certain that such a tax will be announced, because there are formidable practical obstacles.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/banks_face_windfall_tax.html
Another day, another pbc thread topic decided by Tim.
Boring. Irrelevent.
Bye.
76 - Nobody of any importance to the next election result reads the mirror, so who cares.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6945976.ece
“Gordon Brown was snubbed by badly injured Afghan veterans when they closed curtains round their beds during a hospital visit and refused to speak to him. ”
This is astounding in its embarrassment for Labour.
“Many of them may not actually be right but its the fear that matters. Voters tend to be selfish.”
In the case of IHT, it isn’t about being selfish it is about a sense of fairness. You spend your life paying taxes on all the money you earn, then taxes when you spend it. Even the Swedish don’t think it is fair to wallop the living relatives on money left.
Wow, it looks like tim may have inadvertently misled the thread above
The Mirror article actually follows the “class war is a HUGE mistake by Gordo, nothing to do with me Guv” line
Senior Labour figures have recoiled from attacks on David Cameron’s privileged upbringing after the Tory leader branded them “spiteful”.
Ministers said Mr Cameron’s schooling at Eton was unimportant, in marked contrast to Gordon Brown’s criticism of Tory tax policy in the Commons last week.
The Prime Minister said the party’s inheritance tax plans appeared to have been “dreamed up on the playing fields of Eton”.
Mr Cameron has insisted the “class war” tactics would put off voters.
In an interview for BBC1’s The Politics Show, Mr Cameron said he was “not in the slightest bit embarrassed” about his private schooling.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/latest/2009/12/06/labour-backs-off-from-class-war-115875-21878394/
88/94. by all means attack my posts’ content [if you can
]
But don’t accuse me of non-existant partisanship. As it happens, I would personally benefit if the Tories won, and implemented some of their policies. [Don't ask]
101 - saw that last night.
What a comment on the pm
Still, he fights our corner on Europe….
oh.
no wonder tim rants on fluff
Blair would never have allowed the attack on private schooling. The floating middle class so vital to his success were those who scrimped and saved to send their children private.
(1) I don’t think that there will be anything other than a Conservative government with a working majority unless there is a C Change in the figures. I think the figures are such that the supposed inherent bias against the Conservatives will be neutralised or even work in our favour. In 2010 it could well be that it will take fewer votes to elect a Tory MP than a Labour one. That will I think defeat RodCrosby’s point in spite of the fact that I respect his logic in this.
(2) Others in local government are literally another kettle of fish from Others in national elections. A significant proportion who defend seats as others have either jumped ship from the party which helped to get them elected or else been disowned by the same party.
It follows that such candidates actually have to fight against the people who got them elected. Even cynical me has been surprised by how poorly apparently well respected district and county councillors fare against their own party.
Meanwhile new candidates who fight as Other are either maverick Independents or else mavericks fighting under a party colours with little or no acknowledgement from the party. Basically if you fight a council seat as UKIP, Green, BNP etc generally you are on your own.
Hence, Others always perform appallingly in local government election statistics. Sure, some are elected but the are the exceptions which prove the rule.
You can almost feel the panic in Tim’s posts today.
What with the IHT stuff unraveling and the Eton stuff unraveling.
I wonder if Gordon has been throwing Nokias at him.
You carry on fighting that class war and telling us what the point is Tim it is working a treat.
98 Scott P It is not 100 per cent certain that such a tax will be announced, because there are formidable practical obstacles.
You bet there are!
Are we supposed to take seriously this idea that Darling and the Treasury haven’t decided on this yet? It is not as though the PBR comes round as a complete surprise. Unless they are really making up fiscal policy in response to daily headlines - always possible, I suppose - you would have thought any ‘practical obstacles’ would have been comprehensively investigated over a period of many months, and a decision made accordingly.
I would think that a windfall tax specifically on bonuses would be fraught with difficulty. For a start most of these bonuses will have already been subject to 40% tax. Furthermore how do you target the individuals, rather than the banks themselves? The Govt can hardly send out 5000 retrospective individual tax bills.
I would have thought it would have to be a windfall tax, specifically on the banks in return for the help they were all given throughout the banking crisis. Complicating it by tying it specifically to bonuses, whilst popular sounding, just sounds like a practical minefield.
They say that it will be on “UK based banks”. But they can hardly target UK based banks for bonuses paid to overseas workers.
64. “Do most EU leaders want to get back on the EU Train? Seems to me that after years spent getting Lisbon/Constitution agreed there isn’t the appetite currently for any EU Grand Project.
Failure in France, Netherlands and Ireland and knowledge that the UK will put anything big to a referendum (if Cameron wins) plus domestic considerations in trying to drive recovery probably means that there will be irritations but no great ideas for a while.”
This is clearly not true though. The EU doesn’t need any more referenda or treaties: they can agree expanded powers through EU institutions now. Thus Rompey now pushing for a direct EU tax and granting sweeping powers to Bernier for financial regulation previous decided at the national level.
“That was Delors great fear, that once the train halted getting it underway again would be difficult. It stopped and the appointments of non-entities to important posts shows no great desire to get steam up soon.”
It hasn’t stopped and the EU is continuing to push forward as the tax suggestion and the financial regulation shows. The appointment of non-entities isn’t true either: it’s just Rompuy was chosen due to his skill of reconciling factions in Belgium and Ashton to stop the British having influence. The EU will continue as before, accumulating powers for an unseen, unknown elite.
104: “But don’t accuse me of non-existent partisanship. ”
Your opinions are meaningless. Your supposed statistical analysis worthless.
Both must be judged in the light of your understanding of certain historical events that can’t be mentioned on this site.
Anyone with such ‘off-the-wall’ views cannot be trusted to know what day of the week it is.
102. Except you haven’t actually paid any tax on a house that simply increased in value through inflation. Primary residences are exempt from CGT.
102. The fairest way would be to simply to tax the inheritor’s full income rather than the deceased’s estate. I see no reason why you should pay less tax on money inherited than money you’ve gone out and earned.
113 - CGT is inflation linked.
defoe = lol
Anyone watching the telly tonight ? It appears that the January sales have started already.The furniture sales plus Sainsbury’s offering up to 50% cuts.The economy is doomed.
114 - A gift tax then? Would that include unexpected gains, like lottery wins etc?
109 The normal game Labour play on PBR’s and budget’s is to highlight non existent benefits for days before hand and hide in the detail really nasty surprises.
I expect them to do exactly this again, but you know what none of it matters because in all likelihood to say it is worked out on the back of an envelope is to give it too much credit. It sounds like it is going to be a complete irrelevant joke and frankly no surprise as Darling like Brown is a buffoon and they have both contrived to get us into this disaster they are certainly not the people to get us out.
I wonder whether Mr Macintyre will tell us about Labour’s private polling that has them ahead.
106. BTW, there are couple of very expensive, exclusive private schools in Alistair Darling’s constituency. Another reason for him to run screaming from Gordo’s latest wheeze.
http://www.merchiston.co.uk/
http://www.gwc.org.uk/
119 - yep any windfall tax will be announced with “details to be determined in time for the budget”.
Then they’ll be an election and it’ll all be forgotten about.
Until the Conservatives produce a sensible windfall tax suggestion afterwards.
108 - It never ceases to amaze me how Tories on here call Europe and the IHT issue wrongly.
Brown makes one joke at Dave n Zacs expense, it dominates the media for five days, yet thats hurting Labour?
And now Dave has committed himself to online transparency, while red faced up a mountain.
Imagine how the Tories on here would be talking about Media Cycles had one sentence of Camerons at PMQ’s set the agenda.
Actually there is some mileage in the Eton line of attack. What we need is Sion Simon to do a YouTube video in which he pretends to be Eton educated… Oh, wait a minute…
It is actually quite amusing to see that Darling on Marr this morning was very clear that “he couldn’t say what would be in the PBR, and nobody else knows what he’ll say”.
And yet there are leaks coming out of the Treasury every other hour.
117 I think if there is an extension to VAT cut, this is why as despite current VAT cut people are not spending as they are saving for the disastrous future, so darling is praying that by extending to January they finally will spend, can’t see why they would though.
123. Cabinet ministers disowning the line. That’s a major plus for Labour.
I’m convinced.
Vote Labour!!
This is a beauty for Brown slo-mo car crash buffs. He has single handedly produced a situation where DC can call him “petty, spiteful and stupid” and win the implied approval of the Mirror and most of the shadow cabinet. Genius.
And it gets better. As pointed out at 106 the private sector isn’t just Eton and Benenden. It is also thousands of unheard of schools to which the really struggling middle classes send their children because of the state of the state sector. And how they largely fund this, is by inheritances. So that is a big, big sector of the electorate now feeling under attack from two sides.
And it isn’t even the worst story of the day for Brown: that award goes to the Afghan veteran hospital visit story in the Times. My view on multiple amputations has always been: four limbs good, one limb bad, and if body armour and helicopters would reduce the amputation rate I would spend quite a lot of money on them even if that meant diverting funds away from bribing the public sector to vote labour. Brown disagrees.
123 tim as a weathy landowning type can you pay off watford’s debts please?
118. I would support that yes. Although you should probably allow people to spread their income over several years (say 5?) to make sure they’re not clobbered with the top rate of income tax if they earned under that threshold in previous years.
I would certainly support imposing such a tax if it allowed us to cut income taxes on the working poor. Particularly as income tax cuts would have a much strong wealth creation effect than IHT cuts.
126 any vat cut would be LUNACY - it has cost us £15bn already and there has been no benefit - put it up to 30%!!!
104 - Partisanship is nothing to do with personal benefit, it’s what goes on inside their head.
IHT cuts only concentrate the wealth with the wealthy - which is why tax on INCOME must be cut and tax on UNEARNED INHERITANCES needs to bee wopped up!!!!
123 You must be in real panic if you are willing to debate.
“Brown makes one joke at Dave n Zacs expense, it dominates the media for five days, yet thats hurting Labour?”
Yes because the public see a disasterous economy, a wasteful war, Education failing, and hospitals failing and all Gordon cares about is that Cameron went to a good school.
“And now Dave has committed himself to online transparency, while red faced up a mountain.”
Yes he has agreed to put all schools on the website from what I heard, and yes he had a red Face. Do you not see how irrelevent this is?
Cameron has a red face vs Gordon being sent to Coventry by the armed forces. Hmm, tough one to decide which is worse……..
123. tim, there are ways and ways of dominating the media cycle. think amanda knox, or 10p tax bands.
104. RodCrosby: don’t accuse me of non-existant partisanship.
That you fail to recognise your own biases does not mean that they do not exist.
Gordo should have a permanent red face for wrecking the country.
134. “Yes he has agreed to put all schools on the website from what I heard”
It would be entertaining if every time a Tory stands up at the despatch box they state which school they went to “because we know the PM is so interested in such matters”
128 - when I sit down to think about it I know of several people who have put their children through private schooling, none of them are toffs or what you would call mega rich.
134 voreas - My suggestion is that the Conservatives should be fully open and transparent. They should have a page listing schools attended by Conservative MPs, senior Labour ministers, senior journalists (especially BBC and Guardian), quangocrats and civil servants.
Ave It is right on IHT but wrong on Watford FC.
If I was going to rescue a football club it would be one with a longer tradition, and preferably not one in the void around London.
139 - Maybe they could encourage the Labour benches to do the same. Not sure many would be shocked the education of some in the Tory ranks, but probably a lot more so by those on the opposite side.
http://www.workingclasstory.com/2009/12/labour-toffs.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/edwest/100018840/revealed-the-labour-mps-who-attended-grammar-schools/
I think Dave should be force to wear a top hat at PMQ’s by the speaker. Gordo must be required to wear a flat cap and hold a whippet.
All other news outlets apart from the Times seem to have a moratorium on reporting the Selly Oak snubbing.
It is extremely bizarre.
IHT is an issue which defies conventional polling. It is the sort of issue which goes down incredibly well among key swing voter demographics under FPTP, whilst only reinforcing existing opinions elsewhere.
Under FPTP it is ultimately a very small group of people who decide elections (the extreme being that it only usually requires a theoretical few thousand to switch to change the result) and IHT is the sort of the issue which appeals to a sizeable chunk of them.
There is absolutely zero reason to think that has changed since the policy was first announced.
138. You need to have blood in your veins to get a red face.
That reminds, somebody got very hufty on here about the hypocrisy of Marcus Brigstocke the other day. This made me chuckle, apparently he had quite a rant on the Now Show the other day, trying to sound a bit revolutionary….
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_XHazOdNCzZ0/SxvOYecNL1I/AAAAAAAAAEQ/Hx60TP-eTsU/s1600-h/mayobrigtweet.jpg
143. That’s the joy. Any time a Tory mentions schooling, Labour are now obliged to spout the party line “it doesn’t matter” through heavily gritted teeth.
142 LOL you mean like west ham?!
tim + patrick = pals
RBS again….
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6945947.ece
141 I hope CCHQ read what you have written Richard, seems like a good idea to me. Practically speaking not sure about the journalists or civil servants there is probably some data protection issue.
123 - Cameron telling the troops in Afganistan that he would double their combat allowance if he is elected has been every powerful, very well recieved by the soldiers and the electorate. At the same time Brown has been insulting those who are sceptical about man made climate change as ‘flat earthers’ (half the polulation).
Back to school for Brown to learn how to stop insulting the electorate.
142 tim, you are funny.
152 - We all know how the Guardian mob get at any mention of their schooling….
153, aye, in terms of cost for impact that idea is very efficient and effective. It’s also morally bulletproof.
142 tim
If you are looking for a football club to revive that has a long tradition may I recommend this this team. They were FA Cup winners in 1879 and 1882; and runners-up in 1875, 1876, 1881, and 1883.
Although they haven’t since matched the football success achieved in the late 19th century, success has been widespread in other fields of endeavour and is expected to increase in the near future.
A good buy IMHO.
Tim,
The real truth is that Labour want the many to pay IHT, The Conservatives think only millionares should pay it. Its a big vote loser for Labour.
More on Colonel Bob Stewart: may be he’s a possible for Beckenham.
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=139562/start=20.html
150 AS Tim suggested last night (close to the truth in real life I fear) that West Ham are ‘just above the relegation zone on pb com,I am not feeling particularly friendly towards Tim at the moment
Oh dear.
Ministers insist it does not matter which school politicians attended as the Conservative leader David Cameron branded attacks on his privileged background as “spiteful”.
Last week Gordon Brown said the Tories inheritance tax plans apperad to have been “dreamed up on the playing fields of Eton”.
Today Mr Cameron insisted he is not embarassed about his schooling and said class war tactics will not work.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/uk/cameron+hits+back+at+eton+comments/3452137
157 - Not with modern drug testing.
Oh, just remembered, 2 large army barracks in Alistair Darling’s constituency as well.
Gordo, single handedly losing Darling’s seat…
Genius!
O/T - New claims link Tiger Woods to six women
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/golf/article6946392.ece
There is other stuff on more gossipy websites relating to his “usual” activities. Tiger Woods reputation isn’t just in the toilet, it seems far far worse than that.
Ah well,Tiger’s still a good driver-of golf balls
A quick summary of the Cameron years - 4 years since became leader
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/a-quick-summary-of-the-cameron-years.html
162 tim
Don’t worry about that. AJ has promised to ignore all scientific evidence.
166, there’s a similar idea on LabourList, by some fellow called Alistair Campbell.
144. It doesnt work though, Cameron genuinely is a toff, but Gordon Brown is no man of toil, he is not working class and wouldnt know a whippet from a rocking horse.
157. SOL.
162. Not a worry, the drug test results are collated by scientists at the University of East Where? DRU and are subject to Mike’s Nature trick, followed by destruction of the original samples “to save space”.
169 - I think he’s familiar with rocking horses.
Hang on, I thought the line was cuts vs investments
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/pbr/article6945979.ece
“Alistair Darling will this week tell government departments that the money has run out and they face a three-year cash freeze on spending.
The message, the toughest to be delivered by a chancellor since the last Labour government was bailed out by the International Monetary Fund in the 1970s, will mean public sector pay freezes and big job cuts. The cash freeze in Whitehall will mean a “real” cut of nearly £40 billion in spending over three years.”
Now, as Labour (Brown and Balls especially) tried to paint a far different picture (also known as lying through teeth) lets just imagine the feelings of betrayal amongst those sections of the public who took them at their word.
Lying, because they can and because its what Labour do
173, you must be wrong, Mr. Floater. Only the Tories want to cut everything (except state funding of baby-killing). These are simply announcements of 0% growth, as the Supreme Leader himself has mentioned.
A recent Rod Crosby prediction -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/05/is-this-pay-back-time-for-the-suns-announcement/#comment-1249084
128. Eton is not private, it is the ‘third sector’.
Watched QT the biggest applause of the night was when a lady articulated the percieved injustice of the old schoool tie syndrome of mainly men getting the best jobs/careers.
We all know the networks exist.
The lack of fairness and a society not governed by meritocracy rankles many.
175 - RodCrosby = Sion Simon
175. Rod = A prophet for our times… At least Rogerdamus gets the Oscars right…
Mike, [character of the MP set aside] how would you vote in:
1. a straight Con-Lab marginal.
2. a three-wayer in a seat the Tories need to win to get rid of Brown.
…More seriously RodCrosby should be judged on election night, not by whether a hung Parliament emerges, but on the swing. He has said here that his famous model should produce a swing to the Conservatives of between 1.5 and 3.5%.
175,
Ironic: (looking at UKPollingReport) the two surveys completed just prior to that post had the Tories on 40% each - and the two most recent have them on 40%. And shortly after Rod posted that, they went up to 41/43/45.
To be fair to Rod, prediction can be a swine. It sometimes seems as though Fate is conspiring against you.
Daft question - is it possible to set yourself as invisible online in Facebook? I use it mainly to play the odd game of chess, but most days I can’t stay on for 5 minutes without a constituent popping up to say hi, how’s it going, saw you in Beeston last week etc. - which is normally nice, but I don’t *always* want to chat.
Yes, I know, it’s silly to want to be private on a social network…
95.”And yet, it was the change in inheritance tax which set up the Tory revival in the first place. It is still going on. I will not say “going strong”, but there is enough power left in the battery to propel Mr Cameron into No 10.”
It remains the case tat a lot of people looking at their house, savings & life insurance think “IHT might hit my estate” if anything happened to me tomorrow. Many of them may not actually be right but its the fear that matters. Voters tend to be selfish.”
Ted, how many ordinary voters in the +55 range own their own homes and have a bit of savings tucked away? I suspect a fair few from the North of Scotland right down to the depths of Devon and Cornwall. I think that a fair few have also been savvy enough with their own personal finances, that the ramifications of any IHT has crossed their minds whether they qualify or not?
Labour’s obsession with IHT and their dishonest assertion that it helps the richest 2% instead of effecting them alone needs to be addressed. But I think that all the previous tinkering that Brown did in the last 12 years whilst Chancellor will undermine him the most because of the massive increase in house values and damage to pensions and savings.
But with Brown and his team, the Conservative IHT policy is personal and somewhat of an obsession now. Its the one thing that they want to discredit above all else in the Tory manifesto. All those years of plotting and planning were blown away when George Osborne announced it, and the whole edifice started to crumble from there. Its almost as if they think that by finally getting Osborne to bin it, they will be able to rewrite that most damaging period in the Brownite biography.
No, the only link is the fact that Cameron and Osborne screwed the whole Brown premiership on the back of a policy that is basically a drop in the ocean with our current economic problems. Its that personal to some in Downing Street, the whole edifice loving built up over many years crumbled over that Conference season. Cameron and Osborne were meant to bottle it not Brown and his team, that wasn’t in the script. Its almost as if they think that by finally getting Cameron and Osborne to bin it, they will finally be discredited and they will be able to rewrite that most damaging period in the Brownite biography on the back of that.
IHT=Cameron+Osborne=Bottled GE=Tory polling lead=Conservative GE victory.
Tory toffs is the other failed strategy that continues to feed of that theme as well. Blair told Brown it was mistake before he left office, but Brown needs to prove that both the class war and that Tory IHT policy is a vote loser even now. Its all a bit sad really.
MIKE SMITHSON.
I’ve e-mailed you.
181,
Indeed. That makes for anything between level-pegging and a Tory lead of 4%. It’s good science to have a readily falsifiable claim: outside that region and it fails, within that region he’ll look very smart. Personally, I believe that the Tory lead will be noticeably greater, but as you say, we’ll see on the day.
169 As a child Gordon Brown had the status of a little prince in the town of Kirkcaldy. The Souters, from which his mother came, were a very prominent and ‘well to do ‘local family.
183. you might not have to worry about it soon…
Sorry……
183,
Yep - go to “Chat” and click the “Go Offline” box. Then you seem to be offline to all your friends.
184.Sorry for the repeat, poor editing.
174 - MD, once again I thank you for pointing out the error of my ways.
I am not worthy of our supreme leader or his representative on earth tim.
I throw myself upon your mercy, anything but the enormo haddock (not keen on fish you see)
Just in case it swings you towards clemecy, can I mention I am a big fan of your manifesto commitment to school uniforms…..
167 - Science and Eton drug policy?
Poor Zac was expelled for Cannabis possession while Dave got 500 lines of Latin.
I suspect its a “wrong side of the blanket” drug rule.
Over 200 years ago and related to royalty you get extra lines, imagine how Dave laughed at “extra lines”
Recent out of wedlock drug convergence is obviously frowned upon, particularly when the cheques are from the Cayman Islands.
(Supplemental to my 189) - You have to click “Chat”, “Options”, “Go Offline” - sorry, missed out a step.
192 lame.
183 lol Nick, you wont need to worry about it after the GE.
184 - Congratulations, you’ve convinced yourself.
Now watch Osbornes damage limitation
191, fret not, few are imbued with the natural brilliance I and my fishy brethren possess.
Incidentally, BA Barracuda requests that I inform you that he considers you to be a ‘crazy fool’.
Anyway, I’m off for a bit now.
194 - “The Telegraph is a fair weather friend” is my favourite comment of the week.
Pure Bennite,
Brogan continues to fire his guns at Brown
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100019021/the-pbr-could-be-the-best-tory-ppb-ever/
Labour is about to produce a PBR that will quickly start to look like another of those long suicide notes this party used to be capable of. In fact, the Tories should hope that the PBR could turn out to be their best PPB ever, a galvanising moment of epiphany when wavering voters tip decisively towards ‘time for change’
Hats off to the Beeb:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8376286.stm
Re-opening the climate change debate, and from a scan through, looking quite calm and reasoned as well. Links to sceptic blogs as well as pro blogs. That’s how to do it.
O/T - gap has closed very slightly, but all in the MoE as I said last night.
Watching Davis Hendry, like going back 20 years, and watching 2 players just inside the top 16 - interesting nonetheless, both an enormous credit to the sport after 30 and 20 years respectively!
Rod Crosby = “Well, alright! Well, alright!”
(only kidding, Rod!)
191. Does the MD constitution allow for the quasi-judicial granting of compassionate release from an enormo-haddock sentence?
200 - was amazed to see they had Piers Corbyn on yesterday, I’m not one for giving the Beeb credit, but their coverage, what little I’ve seen over the weekend has been better than Sky, which still refuses to acknowledge anything other than the AGW nonsense.
200. ITs better then it has been, but it isnt laying out the argument whatsoever, it is just rebuttal of the claims of the sceptics.
192 tim, now you’re funnier than wageslave. If there’s an award for comedy poster, you’ve got my vote. Keep it up!
On the schools thing, some posters seem confused as to the nature of the attack. It doesn’t matter that Cameron went to Eton or indeed any school. Public Schooling is hardly the unique preserve of the Tory party.
Its what the policies are that matters, and the school provides context. Understand the political narrative being put about by Labour. The Tories remain as they always have been the party of the rich. Their rich friends in the city royally screwed up the world’s economy, have taken zillions from us tax payers, and now the only stated Tory policies are for tax cuts for them, leaving the rest of us to foot the bill for their largesse. Schools have meaning when its a posh school attended by both the city grandees and their friends in the Tory party.
And that is why class has bite whereas it didn’t in Crewe. Then the city hadn’t melted down, the candidate wasn’t a toff and Labour activists in top hats looked like cocks. The situation is wildly different now - there is genuine outrage about cretins like RBS still wanting to take our money to pay obscene bonuses. The notion of the old school tie driving Tory policy is clearly one that the media think has legs as we’re all still talking about it half a week later.
It could be a fun general election campaign. On one hand the Tories print election posters reminding everyone how Brown’s lax regulation bust the economy. On the other hand Labour print election posters full of Cameron quotes criticising Brown for over-regulating the city. A photo of queues outside Northern Rock with that Redwood line about how the Mortgage industry needed no regulation at all. A poster of the shadow cabinet with how many hundreds of thousands their proposed tax changes would land them personally. That sort of thing.
I don’t think there is anything selfish in not wanting to pay IHT.
Certainly relatively short term changes in IHT policy can have a major effect on families particularly those hit by random unfortunately and untimely deaths. So, it does tend to be at the back of the mind for families with small businesses such as family famers like myself.
The greater iniquity occurred when it was called Capital Transfer Tax - It then caused major trauma to a small number of randomly selected families including one of my cousins. I had a more distant relative suddenly become a farmer in order to reduce his liability. As soon as the necessary number of years had been done and the aged parent had done her duty and died he returned to his former life.
One of Blair’s achievements was to prevent Brown from reverting IHT into the vicious monster of CGT which no-doubt Brown would have preferred. Ultimately there is a class of person who sees hard work and the very modest reward for it as wrong. Such people invariably make disasterous political leaders for those who have the misfortune to live under them.
204 - Nick Griffin was on NW Politics today doing his climate theory, the BBC is a broad church.
O/T.
Whats going on with Huhne and this story.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/dec/06/tessa-jowell-phone-hacking-investigation
Is it a set up to further destabilise the Coulson thing?
And are they really aiming at when Boris was targeted.
Interesting report from someone (H.HEMMELIG) at the Beckenham open primary meeting today that selected Colonel Bob Stewart as Conservative candidate:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/beckenham
re 180. I’ve never voted tactically and I don’t think I ever will.
I was questioned on this during the Tory leadership election 2005. I said then that I could see circumstances in which the anti-Iraq war pro-EU Ken Clarke could attract Lib Dems like me.
Bedford, where I live, did appear to be a straight LAB>CON marginal election until the mayoral by-election on October. The local Tory and Labour parties are in total disarray and the Lib Dems can scent the possibility of a sensation.
Sadly Shadsy has picked this up and made the party the second favourite.
207. Yet another bout of delusional Dave Spartism…could have been cut and paste from all the other pathetic frothings we’ve read on here in recent days.
221 I am in the same boat. I find it hard to imagine voting tactically, except extreme circumstances [eg blocking the BNP].
Your admiration of David Roe [? think it was he, but couldn't swear to it] when he said he would - and you’re obvious dislike of the current occupier of No.10 - got me thinking. That’s all.
212 - or could have been cut and pasted from the websites of every national newspaper this last week. Funny kind of delusion that has Tory newspapers alarmed….
213 - Wouldn’t you vote tactically to keep a Nazi like Alan Clark out?
I’d certainly vote tactically to keep an anti semitic conspiracy theorist like Tam Dalyell out.
211. The only time I voted tactically was when I voted for the party which had been in a close second place in the previous election, but ended up in third place in the election I voted in, behind the party which I preferred in second place. It put me off the idea mostly.
I know I’m a day late,but as I did not look upon my return home last night at pb com,a belated very Happy Birthday to Christina D!
I don’t understand why politically aware people don’t vote tactically.
Idealism and naivete are good excuses, but surely anyone who knows the seat well should maximize the influence of their vote.
By nailing your colours to the mast you have zero further influence. The way to get politicians to take you seriously is to float and scheme.
215 Without endorsing your views on any individual, I think my post makes clear what I would to keep out the nazis and the anti semitic.
I must admit,that if I did live in a even remotely marginal Lab-Con seat,I would almost certainly vote Labour this time (cursing Gordon Brown as a manager of Glenn Roeder inepititude-other Hammers know what I mean!
)
If Tam Dalyell had been my MP I probably would have considered voting for him.
Your politics repulse me Tim.
217
I wont mention Man Utd .. as we play them at home at Xmas..
FPTP leaves voting tactically as the only option for a lot of voters. It gives us a choice of two governments - or occasionally a hung parliament or national government. If you despise one of those two options, voting tactically is completely understandable. Otherwise you face the possibility of splitting the opposition vote and leaving a hated encumbant in place.
I must catch the Andrew Marr show, be interesting to see two old Loretto boys discussing the Tory Toff issue and private schools. Did either of them declare an interest while discussing it?
221 - Dalyells “Kosher Conspiracy” and his inventions over Hilda Murrell repulse me.
We’ll have to differ on that.
Tim - Alan Clark was not a Nazi.
You diminish yourself with each post.
217.Patrick, thanks. As I said then, its a bit of a bu**er, now turning 44 means I cannot spin the early 40’s line anymore.
223. If the hated encumbant is one James Gordon Brown, then the electorate can vote tactically in the remaining 649 constituencies.
If it’s the policies, then attack the policies. The fact is, Brown attacked the schools, because he thinks doing so is a good idea. As we can see, his own Cabinet differs.
223 Ian Bailey
That’s a good thing though. Least worst option is a very sensible way of governance - it damps expectations and encourages realism.
207 ‘On the schools thing, some posters seem confused as to the nature of the attack. It doesn’t matter that Cameron went to Eton or indeed any school. ‘
Except the nature of Browns attack *was* Eton. That was very clear. Unfortunately, it’s a tactic that’s backfired, and now we’re witness to U turns and swerves across the media this afternoon, as Labour back track desperately on yet another c*ck up by the Glorious Leader.
Internships are what prevents the mobility of society. I got 5as at a-level got into oxford. The people who went to state schools got straight as while the people who went to private school got 2as and a b. I got a 1st for my degree applied for a job and was asked to work a year internship. How can I live. The person who got the job I wanted was a classmate who went to private school with her 2a and a b and her high 2nd degree. Why because mummy and daddy sponsered her as always. Its ok to sponge of mummy and daddy. I was unemployed for 5 months until I got my first job. Not because I couldn’t get one but because internships.
Child care, social care and internships are issues that affect social mobility.
I start work tomorrow I have twins aged 15months. Childcare costs are 90 a day. My rent is 1250 a month council tax 120 travel 110 a month basic salary is 1900 a month after deductions. There is no father as I threw him out after he punched me in the face. I know I’m bad for throwing him out hence the tories are taking money away from me for getting divorced. I would rather be single than take a beaten to get camerons bonus.
I do find it funny that Tim and chums believe they have to keep explaining the nature of the attack and telling everybody else they are missing the point.
If you have to explain the attack, it clearly is weak(which it is, Most people don’t care about what school someone went to) and it clearly doesn’t resonate(which it doesn’t, how many swing voters do you honestly believe are going to themselves “well now I know that Cameron is from Eton, I will vote Labour or I won’t vote Tory”)
People care that their grandchildren are going to be paying off the debt that Gordon created, they care that despite endless cash hospitals are failing and schools are producing no improvement, and they care that soldiers are dying because of lack of equipment. and That is just the tip of the iceberg.
232. U r adrian harprer and I claim my £5.
I voted anti-tactically in 1992. I was so disillusioned with both Labour and the Conservatives that I voted for the Lib Dems (it was a Labour/Tory marginal). I wanted to make sure that I could spend the next five years telling anyone who asked that I hadn’t voted for the Government.
232. Hilarious…on several levels.
232 susanna
Unpaid internships are indeed a barrier to social mobility.
I think a solution would be for the government to share in the cost of payment for internships where otherwise it would lead to them paying out unemployment benefits. This is essentially tax credits, extended to internships.
231 - Brown didn’t say “you went to Eton” and left it there - its not an attack on the school. He said “your tax policy was dreamed up on the fields of Eton”. The school has relevance in the context of the policy.
Froth about U-turns all you like, there hasn’t been one. If Cameron had been to Eton and was advocating big increases in the minimum wage paid for by a top rate tax then where he went to school wouldn’t be an issue would it? Being a toff in itself means nothing - Viscount Stansgate wasn’t advocating tax cuts for his friends from Westminster School was he?
227 You can mathematically state you are ‘in your mid 40s ‘ until the day after you are 46 yrs 8 months old
(Say he who is 1 yr 2 mths 12 days off hitting the dreaded 4-0 -which will fall on a Friday (probably with much reduced liver function the following day 
)
233 - actually I think that most people get the nature of the attack, at least thats what the polls and the media are saying. The people who don’t get it are Tories who point to the Crewe byelection saying “but it didn’t work there”.
Times have changed!
” hence the tories are taking money away from me for getting divorced”
No they aren’t.
susanna - Oxford first!
Best joke of the week.
Who is this Rod Crosby anyway, is he Gabble and Tim’s love child?
I have never heard someone spout such utter delusional nonsense since …. Well never actually!
Rod, Why don’t you jump on your swingback thingy, spin it round as fast as you can … With any luck you might dissapear up your own backside and never be heard of again!
145.”All other news outlets apart from the Times seem to have a moratorium on reporting the Selly Oak snubbing.
It is extremely bizarre.2
wibbler, that is indeed bizarre. That is quite a damning article, but made it makes people feel very uncomfortable? And the timing of it the same weekend that Cameron is in Afghanistan, mere coincidence?
216 That thought puts me off too. You are second guessing about 25,000 other folks. Bound to be a margin for error.
238. I see its ’self-parody night’ tonite….
231 EdP - Yes, Brown has taken a promising, if narrow, line of attack, and messed it up.
232 I’m no saint when it comes to Grammar Susanna but if you have a first from Oxford I am really concerned about the state of our education system.
232. If you got a first at Oxford, how come your spelling and grammar are so poor?
236 Normally I listen to your points happily and respectfully,but it is far from funny ,indeed stoneage for anyone to have to tolerate domestic abuse
250. I agree.
232.susanna, about as subtle as a brick. But you are good at Labour’s bingo attack card.
“Its ok to sponge of mummy and daddy.”
I take it when your twins hit 16, you’ll be chucking them out into the street.
240 Ok carry on then, by all means.
226 - I think Alan Clark was a Nazi.
A Nazi sympathiser and a Hitler fan.
Hardly shocking, Sean Fear if I remeber correctly thinks the sam, as do many other people.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/sep/15/alan-clark-was-a-nazi
250 And I take at face value Susanna’s implied statement that ‘the old school tie’ exists re Oxford Uni,future job prospects-but then I’m a mere pleb who did one year at Wolverhampton Polytechnic,so my hoi polloi type don’t matter.
Does not matter how they try to butter you up,the smug patronising psychology of the Tories always bubbles through
244. It makes me uncomfortable to think that these stories don’t make a bigger impact.
I am pleased to see Col Bob chosen. I don’t know much about him personally, other than the TV appearances we’ve all seen, but our current perchant for military action leads me to think we should have more ex servicemen and women in Parliament.
Those who take us to war should not be insulated from the consequences of it.
232 Susanna, If you are going to troll, you must try harder.
240 - “Times have changed!”
You have evidence to support that I assume.
256. Have you been on the sauce again Patrick?
Deary me, some somewhat less than generous comments on ’susanna’s’ post @ 232.
255 Read “Barabarossa” by Alan Clark. And then try to tell me he was a Nazi with a straight face.
260 I am as sober as a judge -I never drink until I go out in the evening-which as I’m in my lounge is still c.30 minutes away
261 Jack W - Hardly surprising, is it, given the offensive nature of her last sentence.
256. I have my doubts about susanna herself but in general, the internship system is a great way to keep certain lines of work in “our crowd,” as are very low starting wages. Not sure whether government could actually do anything about it (or would want to do anything about it, either).
256 You seriously think Susanna is legit. B*locks, and your post is sanctimonious nonsense. I really did expect better of you Patrick.
257.”Those who take us to war should not be insulated from the consequences of it.”
SallyC, totally agree with your there. That article in the Times was very bad for Brown, but what got me was the underlying story of the soldiers who were interviewed. Coming so soon after that very poignant programme Wounded, that hit a nerve.
O/T. In the last few days, when refreshing pb.com Internet Explorer has occasionally warned me of an unspecified security risk. Has anyone else had that?
I was using Chrome until recently.
261 Perhaps you should have been here last night.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/05/does-it-need-an-85-pc-swing-to-oust-byrne-or-a-126-one/
See comment 40.
232 susanna
On a point of fact, the evil Tories aren’t going to take any money away from you for being single, unless you earn over £50,000, if my understanding is correct.
They might be giving extra money to couples who are married though.
It is possible, though improbable, that the evil Tories will not eat your babies.
Do you think that Susanna is tim’s female alter-ego in the same way that Grayson Perry crossdresses as “Claire”?
250 but she didn’t, she threw him out and good for her.
I understand that Osborne is proposing substantial tax breaks for wifebeaters, but only within the context of a loving marriage or civil partnership and not necessarily in the first term of a conservative government.
susanna - you should move down to West Devon; I am paying less than that for a five bedroom farmhouse. And Oxford - no. Sorry, but just no. Try a more realistic claim; for example, say that you are Regius professor of climate science at the What? of East Anglia.
264 - It may be offensive, and as we’re not sure what Camerons tax and marriage policy is yet, hasty, but it’s a valid point that giving cash for marriage presumes a an extra penalty for those who need/want out.
269
What a nasty comment, in fact its just plain disgusting. No wonder “Susanna’s” comments are treated with derision.
£1900 after tax is about what, £30k per annum?
A lot of people would be happy to earn that much. They might not rent an industrial unit at £1250 a month to be fair, but something a little smaller maybe.
273 see 269
273 and it is equally offensive to encourage seperation through the benefits system as at present.
238 You seem very confused - what’s Tony Benn got to do with the argument? One must assume, that you’re dizzy from spinning so much. Face it; Browns ballsed up yet again. Another short term ‘victory’ has turned sour.
264 Richard N. Being smacked in the face is “offensive”. Opposing a David Cameron policy isn’t.
God help us if critisism of Conservatives becomes off limits !! :rolls:
266 My impication at 256 was serious,at face value-and for what its worth I know I am not intelligent enough to ever have dreamt of Oxford Uni,I got B,C and D in ‘A’ level British Politics,Economics and Sociology respectively-at the time,before AS levels,I’d have got 8,6, and 4 points for BCD in A levels,a total of 18.
I recall 40 was the benchmark for Oxford,so syanora to that one.
I do recall one former grammar school friend going to Cambridge Uni-doubtless he was given huge support and encouragement by his white-collar parents,absolutely no problem with that.
The system is biased against very able/humble background -fact,noy opinion,political or otherwise
276 - I read that at the time and thought it to be a particularly squalid comment.
How it relates to the point I mad is unclear.
258. The new trollatariat are not up to much are they?
Jack W.
There’s history.
Please see 269
232 - I actualy prefer tim as a poster over you, that really is saying something.
280 I wouldn’t worry Patrick, only complete planks go to Cambridge/Oxford.
Dudes go to red brick unis, or rather, they did.
264.Richard, and that sentence coming so soon after her last disgusting post on here.
271.Sandra, I think so. Tim does the toff and IHT stuff, susanna will go on the tax credits and marriage angle.
269 Sally. I deprecate those comments too.
280 I can’t disagree with any of that.
282.It is indeed becoming clear Labour are no longer in a position to pay their ‘interns’.
279 Indeed, Jack. But associating Cameron’s policy with domestic violence is offensive. A nasty personalised attack, one of many thousands from the Left which have tainted politics for thirty years.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if, for once, we heard criticism of Conservative policies on substantive grounds, not just smears?
286 she earns £30k a year plus apparantly, not too shabby
Top Gear ripping the s##t out of the Daily Mirror…
289 - Work for free or be mentored by Mark Field.
Your call.
269 - exactly. Not a one off at all
287 You can’t make comments like yesterday’s and then come on 24 hours later, without ‘us’ assuming something about the poster may be a little thick.
Thanks to Andy Cooke for the helpful Facebook tip - now I can play chess in peace! This is such a good site for simply asking stuff: so long as it’s nothing to do with Scotland, Gordon Brown or David Cameron, one gets prompt and helpful replies…
232. Susanna - Cameron isn’t trying to “penalise” those who chose to be single, or live apart. He’s merely trying to remove the *existing* penalty in the tax system where couples who stay together with children get less benefits and tax income than if they stay apart.
If you are on a low income this puts great pressures on couples to live apart and on their relationship.
It matters.
Furthermore, are you sure about the figures you’ve given?
If your net monthly salary is £1,900 that gives you £420 - after your deductions - to pay for food, energy bills, clothes, insurance and utilities.
For three people that’s one hell of a stretch.
My advice would be to find a smaller property that doesn’t cost £1250pcm.
You are drastically overpaying there. Even in London.
273 - lol, no one saw that coming
tim, a man with absolutely zero self respect
296 come on Nick, you and Clarkey should be getting on with Mathscoup 2010 - Quadratic Equations for Stalking Horses.
NPMP + CC = 10DS
288 We all say things we quicly regret.
A few days after the Zeebrugge Townsend Thoresen Herald of Free Enterprise disaster (I used to know a survivor believe it or not),the then Cabinet Minister Nicholas Ridley accused a Labour opponent of ’sailing with his doors open’
After some grumbing,Ridley made a half-baked apology
‘diane’ always seems to appear seconds after ’susanna’.
Coincidence?
269. Ah. It all make sense now.
Her “maths” was faulty anyway: budget totally unrealistic.
290 Richard N. I disagree. Relating difficult personal circumstances to specific party policies is the stuff of politics.
What would Cameron say in a voter phone-in or confronted in a personal voter show down to such a question ??
I’d also consider it “wonderful” if we heard some of the more reasoned PB Conservatives call out their own “bots” for the utter crap they never cease to entertain us with !!
293. I know two people personally who work for Mark Field tim.
Grow up.
302 To be fair, I believe it’s entirely possible she has been to Oxford [ie driven through it] or at least seen it on a postcard.
303. Or perhaps we could just have a complete end to people posting false biographical details on the site?
295 Sally. If we’re going to disqualify posters because of past errors, then might I suggest that in the future you’d be chatting to a mightily small group on PB !!
303.
‘I’d also consider it “wonderful” if we heard some of the more reasoned PB Conservatives call out their own “bots” for the utter crap they never cease to entertain us with !!’
I think you’ll find we have all chastised seant from time to time and have the scars to prove it.
Interesting post on the politics of climate change
http://constantlyfurious.blogspot.com/2009/12/climate-change-not-drowning-just.html
303. I very much doubt they are genuine personal circumstances Jack.
No intelligent numerate single mother with a 1st from Oxford would spend 66% of her NET income on rent with two children to look after.
This is what £1,250 PCM rent can get you - even in London:
http://tinyurl.com/yghkchf
306 runnymede. I’m sure you’d like to ban many things.
308 - Not on days when he was a Tory.
300 I hope it is clear I regret nothing about attacking you for your attack on posters who attacked sussana, and as far as I can see it has very little to do with what you were saying regarding abler poor kids going to prestigious universities, on which we largely agree, although another issue is bright kids in state education being bored and failing to reach their potential because of an education system that favours mediocrity and ploughs all resources into problem children but none into gifted.
311. No, not really. Did that strike a raw nerve, perhaps?
312. He is not a Tory everyday.
308 SallyC. I thought we were told that SeanT was a conservative but NOT a Conservative and more recently a Lib Dem !!
I think we should just note him as “Confused Of Regents Park” !!
314 runnymede. Don’t flatter yourself !!
305. SallyC - driving through Oxford requires more brain power than susanna evinces. She might conceivably have used the bypass, though.
I would like to think there is a middle ground between tolerating comments like that made by ’susanna’ last night and banning lots of things indiscriminately.
But I could be wrong.
318.
319 - No one I’ve read has tolerated it, everyone I’ve read has condemned it.
Britain set to slump outside world’s top 10 leading economies by 2015 - behind India, Russia and Canada
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233670/CEBR-Report-Britain-set-slump-outside-worlds-10-leading-economies-2015–India-Russia-Canada.html
322,forgot to say,’WELL DONE GORDON’
Susanna congratunlations. Last week you claimed to have 5 GCSEs, this week you have 5 A levels and a degree. Well crammed.
“The person who got the job I wanted was a classmate who went to private school with her 2a and a b and her high 2nd degree.”
by susanna December 6th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
So if your classmate went to private school, did you?
Troll plank
321. Actually, some went rather quiet for a while and the initial reaction of others upon being asked to condemn it, was to suggest it was a Tory plot.
325 SallyC. Tory plot ?!? …. was it amateur night ?
322. Russia and Canada will not overtake us.
If we get back on our feet soon we should be able to overtake France and Italy again as well.
Long-term Brazil, China and India *will* overtake us and there’s nothing we can do about that.
I’d have thought we could stay in the top 10 for the next 20 years - assuming we have a government that takes recovery seriously next yeat.
259 - I think we can now conclude that when Ian Bailey said that things have changed since Crewe & Nantwich re Tory Toffs he was just making it up and has nothing to back up his claims.
It’s hard to think that anyone could take susanna seriously enough to be really offended by her.
325 - Your “The Telegraph is a fairweather friend” post is still the dumbest “genuine” quote of the week.
That was tremendous.
326 Gabble, tim, Nick P and susanna were in attendance.
Amateur? Yes.
Comedy? No.
Farce? Maybe.
Good news! The strategy is working!!
Is it going to be nothing but mud-slinging about Eton and toffs?
That would be disastrous for Labour, despite a slight narrowing in polls. Why? Because it would make the election about an instinctive choice as to whether people liked Brown more or less than Cameron, and whether they thought Labour had been in power long enough. And we know how that one would end.
Oh, wait a minute…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/06/labour-conservatives-economic-policy-elections
330 There is no judgement you could make upon me that would move me to feel anything. At all.
331 SallyC. An early Christmas nativety ?? …. Tories were clearly Herod !!
334 No point looking to Labour for the angels.
333 SallyC. An announcement in the Court Circular seems unlikely then ?!?
184. Christina D - “But with Brown and his team, the Conservative IHT policy is personal and somewhat of an obsession now. Its the one thing that they want to discredit above all else in the Tory manifesto. All those years of plotting and planning were blown away when George Osborne announced it, and the whole edifice started to crumble from there. Its almost as if they think that by finally getting Osborne to bin it, they will be able to rewrite that most damaging period in the Brownite biography.”
Spot on. Very well put.
Of course, this is also the *real* reason why tim continues to bang on about day after day.
He is desperate for us to bin the pledge and help win that crucial psychological victory for Labour.
It is also why any sensible Tory with their heads screwed on should just simply ignore him whenever he opens his mouth on the subject.
He is completely wrong.
324 Albion
First class forensic cross-examination. You should be a barrister.
334. I have an insane image of Gordon Brown swaddling a red box in a manger.
O/T - I never knew Tim Montgomerie used to be in The Beautiful South??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttuA1UEUAI0
338
326 I thanked you for the Abe Books info previously JackW and I now thank you again in case you mised it.
I even ordered a fine (I hope) edition of Worlds End from the States through them.
Be that as it may, I still cant read YOUR politics correctly.
Do you really want another five years of G. Brown in power?
re Susanna @ 232. I find your life story totally amazing.
To have gone from being brought up in “a cardboard city” as you wrote here and then to get into Oxford and then graduate with a first is sensational.
Until 2005 I was Director of Development of that university and I know that my successor would love to be able to feature your story of incredible courage and perseverance. I am sure that that would help you and open up new opportunities.
335 SallyC. I understand one of the three wise men is Vince Cable, the corpulent inn keeper hails from West Sussex. We’re not too sure which county Mary come from, save it couldn’t be Essex as the likelyhood of finding a virgin is so vanishingly small !!
337 Indeed he is wrong . . Labour want the many to pay IHT Conservatives think it should only be paid by millionares.
Not a good atmosphere in here tonight.
We should be concentrating on the important news of the evening that the Iraqi Parliament has discussed,resolved and voted on its electoral process.
And celebrate our part in enabling that to happen, and send good wishes to the Iraqi people who now live in a free country less violent that Russia or Brazil.
343. haha
342 weathercock. You’re most welcome.
As to your last question - Are you mad !!
346
sounds like your softening us up for when Darling has to say the UK has fallen behind Iraq in the GDP rankings.
346. It’s always a delight when tim the liberal interventionist comes out to play.
With all the talk about IHT I think I have to ‘out’ myself as the man partly responsible for it.
Why me? Take a look at this ConHome thread from prior to the 2007 Conservative Conference when they were looking for ideas to wrongfoot Labour:
‘Tories will pledge abolition of inheritance tax
That is what the TaxPayers’ Alliance is reporting on its blog.
Matthew Elliott, Chief Executive of the TPA, greeted the leaked news with excitement:
“Taxpayers across Britain will now look at David Cameron’s Conservatives in a different light following this announcement. Finally, voters can choose a party which will abolish this iniquitous tax. This is great news for ordinary families who suffer under the shadow of the death tax. Britain’s number one most hated tax is going to be axed.”
We will need to look carefully at the small print of George Osborne’s announcement. My guess is that it won’t be promised immediately but will be financed from the proceeds of growth.
September 28, 2007 at 17:34 in Tax and spending | Permalink
Comments
It would be more popular not to abolish it but to increase the threshold to say a million pounds. Any money saved by this adjustment could be used to increase the stamp duty of houses threshold, which would aslo be popular.
Posted by: Richard | September 28, 2007 at 17:56′
So it was me who had the idea to turn IHT into a tax for millionaires.
And now for a prediction, the Conservatives will still plan on raising the threshold to £1m but will increase the rate to 50%. ‘Labour has ruined the economy, we’re all in this together, etc etc.’
The Conservative leadership will know that it wont actually bring in much money as the super-rich will contiune to avoid it through clever tax planning but it will LOOK good.
348. Your last 3 little words says it all really. Up the Guards.
337. Which is also why they’ve tried so hard to take out Osborne and Coulson, Labour are desperate for a Tory scalp.
We should have write-in votes here
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/06/mr-burns-gets-most-write_n_381775.html
343. ROTFLMAO!!
I would make:
Vince the script writer - he is good at recycling other people’s jokes.
Boris would be the innkeeper.
Guido would make an interesting Angel Gabriel.
Ed Balls - he’s an ass.
And someone will have to tell Brown he’s not God.
346, 349 etc
It is just possible that the invasion of Iraq, supported by the Tories, but not by the Liberals, may turn out after all, to have been the correct thing to do.
350 - As Blair said, its worse than that, I actually believe in this.
The decline in violence in Iraq is a real cause for celebration, and the US losses are down to lower levels than the British Army suffered in NI.
1000 bankers have left RBS for private banks
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article6945945.ece
356 SallyC
Just don’t make tim prompter. Otherwise Joseph would end up lecturing the Three Wise Men on IHT.
Any odds being placed for a new leader for “Scottish” Labour? =)
357 - Yes it was the right thing to do, and the Conservative Party should be proud of its role, and how quickly it shifted from the Hurd/Rifkind appeasement doctrine that held sway in the disatrous mid 90’s
Re susanna
Apparantly she lives in Birmingham Selly Oak constituency and her rent is £1250 per month.
£1250 per month for a house in Birmingham’s southern suburbs???
Can someone from the Birmingham area say if this is likely?
358
“the US losses are down to lower levels than the British Army suffered in NI”.
Can you provide a link to this statistic. I am genuinely interested.
358 tim
Did you watch Dominic Asquith’s testimony at the Chilcot Inquiry?
348 O/T Jack W I think the Palace is in need of your expertise.
When I saw the headlines “Queen to get tough on Paparazzi” the immediate image in my mind was of the Duke of Edinburgh’s Irregulars waiting by the banks and braes of Balmoral or in the covets of Sandringham, waiting, waiting for the footsteps of their prey, the glint of sun on lenses, the click of shutters.
Who best to give them the necessary training and advise? Then I thought of the lost legions of the Yellow Peril on your Highland Estates.
346 So we should “send good wishes to the Iraqi people who now live in a free country less violent that Russia or Brazil” and forget the 100 000 (bare minimum) who don’t live at all any more, on the grounds that it’s boooooring to go on about them, we don’t do body counts, NPMP votes “very strongly” against any form of inquiry into Iraq?
I am sure all the surviving relatives will appreciate the humour of such a message. What a wag you are.
363 My father in law rents houses in Selly Oak (about 100). As a rule of thumb, its £50 per bedroom per week.
So Susanna must live in a 6 bedroomed house to pay this much money. I wonder why someone with two kids needs a 6 bedroom house.
£1250 would get you a nice house in the best part of Edgbaston.
But there again, susanna is a construct, like timbot, diana and Wayne, not a person.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6744162/Baroness-Scotland-never-considered-resigning-over-illegally-employed-housekeeper.html
“The law was targeted at employers and I have paid the penalty for that”
Excuse me?
Baroness Scotland never considered resigning as Attorney General amid the row over her illegally employed Tongan housekeeper, she disclosed during an appearance on Radio 4’s Desert Island Discs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6744162/Baroness-Scotland-never-considered-resigning-over-illegally-employed-housekeeper.html
357
Mind you I seem to recall Michael Howard, then Tory leader tried to pretend that he was against the invasion at one stage.
343. Lolz!
Fortunately, or unfortunately for Mr Darling, it looks as though he doesn’t have that long in the job. He is left to stare at the mess left by a decade of profligacy and self–delusion without yet being able to do much about it. I reckon that bringing down the burden of Britain’s debt will be the dominant theme for at least a decade of Budgets, if not two.
So, even if by some miracle Mr Darling survives to deliver more than one more Budget, debt reduction is likely to be the task for several Chancellors. I suppose that you could say that this is an achievement of sorts – to have shaped the agenda for an apparently never-ending succession of Chancellors, stretching into the future like the heirs of Banquo’s ghost. And I suppose you could see that as a fitting end to what has been, in more ways than one, a peculiarly Scottish tragedy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/6745664/Never-mind-this-Phoney-Budget-Report-debt-is-a-future-Chancellors-lot.html
368
According to this site. “Suzanna” must be renting a mansion….
http://www.findaproperty.com/areadetails.aspx?edid=00&salerent=1&areaid=3665
re 371. There are no circumstances in which this illegal act of aggression can ever be justified.
366 Ted.
…. I await the call !!
374 Maggie Thatcher Fan
I do hope Susanna isn’t wavering towards the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg and Vince Cable would take the food from the mouths of her twins.
364 -
http://icasualties.org/
US deaths have fallen to 147 this year, with a military presence massively lartger than the British had in NI.
The US is taking, pro rata fewer caualties than the British army did in NI during the seventies, and the decline is heartening.
And in Iraq itself violent deaths have fallen remarkably this year.
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/
363/368. Not bad..
http://tiny.cc/M5Hun
I agree, Mike, Saddam Husein was a bastard and a madman, but a more sophisticated way way to get rid of him, (and his family - brutal, the lot) could have been managed.
There are, though, reasons to be not so cheerful. A simple point about the coming election is that it is going to be fought in Labour-held seats. Despite the higher than usual number of MPs that are standing down, it is also going to be fought largely by incumbent Labour MPs, all facing candidates who will ruthlessly exploit the expenses issue. So, while the opinion polls are moderately encouraging for Labour, national opinion polls may not translate into seats in such a favourable way, and the party is in danger of taking the wrong lesson from the figures. It should not fall into the trap of thinking that, under Brown’s leadership, it could deny Cameron a majority. It should draw the conclusion that it is more likely to be able to do so under a different leader.
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/221565.html
345/353. Indeed!
377. Hehe.
378. And in Iraq itself violent deaths have fallen remarkably this year: tim
Maybe, but in Kurdistan deaths by bomb and gun are still catastrophic.
380 - That would have been “illegal” too.
And left a fully armed Ba’ath party to fight the civil war.
Right, I’m gonna sign up for the evening. G’dnight guys.
(tim - don’t stay up too late)
From FindaProperty.com:
‘Selly Oak property to rent & area guideReview area information or pick your preferred property to rent in Selly Oak:
[ Bournbrook , Shenley Fields , Weoley Castle ] Selly Oak Average asking prices
(per month)
Studio Flats £442
1 Bed Flats £468
2 Bed Flats £641
3 Bed Flats £648
2 Bed Houses £600
3 Bed Houses £593
4 Bed Houses £725′
And in posh Edgbaston:
‘Studio flats £358
1 Bed Flats £489
2 Bed Flats £671
3 Bed Flats £804
2 Bed Houses £578
3 Bed Houses £736
4 Bed Houses £1025′
susanna has come a long way from ‘cardboard city’ hasn’t she.
383 - You might want to read what actually the IBC includes and doesn’t, it isn’t the same as “murder rate”.
NOTE
Mike will be on the Westminster hr on R4 shortly discussing the latest polls.
Being an Oxford grad she probably thinks Birmigham is made from cardboard.
Nonsense - that’s Wolverhampton.
383 - 383 - I don’t think the Kurds, who suffered the genocidal Anfal campaign against them, with between 100,000 and 200,000 civilian casualties, including more in on day at Halabja than have died since the removal of Saddam would like to turn the clock back.
378 The total US budget allocated to Iraq to end of this year was $915 billion, associated costs (reconstruction, cost of care for US casualties etc) are a lot higher. UK & other coalition forces have probably spent tens of billions more but lets just use the $915 bn.
Rather than invade next time couldn’t we just offer the dictator & his family a well paid retirement, a couple of billion in the bank, a nice yacht, a palace on the Med. With the other $900 bn we could perhaps give each Iraqi $10,000 to be nice to one another so $310 bn and the remaining $590 bn?
Pay off all third world debt? Would pay back generously as free of debt those countries could afford to buy Western goods,
Provide fresh water, primary health & education for the neediest?
US could afford a proper healthcare system.
Lots of choices
Oh and a hundred thousand or more people would still be alive.
384. Glorious! What more could foreign office wish for.
Front pages so far,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Monday-December-7-2009/Media-Gallery/200912115494045?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15494045_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Monday%2C_December_7%2C_2009_
Is Peston being interviewed at home? Can’t he make it to the Beeb’s studios any more???!!!
390
Yes but that’s before you tell them that some of the Polish peace-keepers voted for Michael Kaminski.
375 i agree - and afghanistan too!
Mike smithson = no 1 poster!
Sadly, even if Iraq’s fledgling democracy manages to survive into the medium to long term, if the weakening of the West’s position from the invasion results in Iran getting the bomb, the war would still have been a terrible mistake.
393 - The FT looks like Osborne being sensible, inevitably firing up the Euro sceptics.
390. No the Kurds wouldn’t like the clock turned back.
But to say that all is now sweetness and light now in Irak is farcical.
232. Why would any reasonable person even be slightly tempted to thump Susanna?! Mind you, I bet a few would like to thump Damian McBride or other Labour trolls, which is, of course, completely different.
399 - I didn’t say it was sweetness and light, I said it was a huge improvement that has gone unnoticed here.
394 Has Peston hidden his elephant lamps, and drawn the curtains to cover the uPVC window frames?
ogh on r4 now
Hmm. 10 O’clock News shows clip of Khaooomooooreeeosnfhgtiurlfmcwq calling Gordo and Mandy “petty, spiteful and stupid”. Solid result for Labour there.
322 - An awful picture of Brown in that article.
looks like he has been crying, perhaps over the tatters of his reputation of being an economic genius.
359. Hmm at this rate we will end up with the liquidation we should perhaps have had in the first place…
405 - let’s hope so, but I doubt he can feel remorse. In Browny-land everything is perfect and everyone loves him.
Was watching the news earlier with my parents, Brown appeared and they both said ‘Doesn’t he look awful now?’
362 - if it was the right thing to do why lie about the reasons?
was it right to send the troops with deficient equipment?
Was it right to send them with missing equipment?
did we send them with 5 rounds per man “because it was the right thing to do”?
is it right to send troops to put their lives on the line and send them without adequate pain relief being available?
In what way was it the right thing to do to cut funding for helicopters as your party chose to do?
408 - But we sent them some ski equipment instead, so that makes it all ok!
Calling your opponent stupid is almost invariably a mistake. Creating a situation where the archfop can call Gordon stupid, and look justified and reasonable in doing so, is a car crash triumph on Gordon’s part.
And brilliant anecdote from Ed Vaizey (well known I’m sure): his dad was a labour peer, put on public school commission by Harold Wilson, liked what he saw so much he sent his children to st pauls.
Front Pages seem a bit dull on the whole, one bit that caught me eye,
“Brown ignored top scientist on carbon”
391 - in addition the reputations of the USA and UK would not be in tatters
408 Floater, your questions will remain unanswered. In tim-world the well being of British soldiers matters not a jot.
413 - I noticed MacGabble couldn’t even bring himself to say he supported the “Tickets for Troops” scheme.
to say -> to say whether
408/9 I presume you are conflating Iraq and Afghanistan out of ignorance rather than design.
What is coming out of the Iraq enquiry is the corrosive role of Rumsfeld and how Bush an the non neo cons were not interested in nation building.
410 - Unfortunately Ed went on to say that “because I went to public scool I now lots of bankers who were in the right place at the right time to make lots of cash” which slightly weakened his point.
I like Ed, him and Nick Hurd will be in a Cameron cabinet and would have been if the private polling wasn’t showing Dave that he had a posh problem this time last year, hence the return of Ken and the elevation of the buffoon Grayling.
411- if you read Bower on Brown you will see Brown is prone to ignoring advice he does not like.
Pensions being a wonderful example of this.
oh and the people giving him advice he doesn’t like…… don’t tend to last long
416 - I’m not Timmy, ski equipment was sent to Iraq.
417 - Gold sale is another.
408 - oh dear tim.
nice try to deflect the argument.
Only with the helicopters is your claim anywhere near being true.
so, fighting 2 wars, why cut the budget?
over to you sunshine…..
word to the wise, stick to lying about IHT
418 - I’m sure you’ll find cock ups like that in all wars.
Surprised you brought it up in a conversation about the principles behind the wwar though, bit shallow really.
416 ‘and the elevation of the buffoon Grayling.’
And yet for whatever faults he may have, he’s an elected politician with a shadow porfolio, whilst you’re simply a bitter troll, sniping from the sidelines. Does that make you a bigger buffoon?
416 ‘and the elevation of the buffoon Grayling.’
And yet for whatever faults he may have, he’s an elected politician with a shadow porfolio, whilst you’re simply a bitter troll, sniping from the sidelines. Does that make you a bigger buffoon?
421 - you are the bloke who comments on jumpers and things are you not?
LOOOOL
As I said tim, no self respect
421 - So weak.
Being a bigger buffoon than Chris Grayling is indeed doubly challenging.
It is fascinating how aspects of susanna’s private life so closely reflect current political debates on this site. If the bloke who punched her turns out to have been a banker on a bonus bender, or Andy Coulson, I will begin to have suspicions.
393. I see the Telegraph are reporting on the high level negotiations between Clinton and an author of this parish.
416 tim
It was not just a silly thing to say, it is also for the most part untrue.
The majority, by number, of bonuses are paid to traders, whose jobs are not sinecures for the public school educated. A large proportion will be foreign nationals or non-doms, imported to trade in markets in which they have specialist knowledge. Trading floors are no longer gentlemanly: it is dog eats dog and the city reflects that.
All the same I think Vaizey did very well and his silly remark will be passed over without incident and with very little comment.
393 - The Times with an interesting take asking whether the discriminaiion against bankers breaches the Human Rights Act. Very embarasing for Darling/Brown if the HRA foils their plans to target the bankers….
426 TIMBOT, congratulations are clearly in order. You’ve managed to achieve the near impossible.
430 - Wonder if it will end up like the “Name and Shame” Criminals scheme that has basically being buried, because Human Right Act doesn’t allow it?
427. Surely her boyfriend is a Polish nazi who is so rich he intends to make a fortune out of Conservative plans to make sure only men who smoke very big cigars pay inheritance tax.
429 - It was a strangely defencsive statement, an illustration of nervousness.
As I’ve said I quite like Ed, depite his exposure as part of the MPs Expenses spent at OKA/ cut the IHT to Dave from OKA scandal.
420 - come on tim, in your own time answer the points in 408 and the supplemental raised in 420 after you tried to wriggle out of responding.
Or are you taking the friendly advice?
You should listen to the advice about your posting hours too, hate to see you wasting your life supporting a truly lost cause, especially as you claim to not being able to vote for them.
Anyway, another day closer to the inevitable defeat tim
The latest fax from the Treasury has arrived…
The windfall that the Chancellor wants to capture is bankers’ bonuses, as I said in my last note.
So what he has in mind - and what may be announced in Wednesday’s pre-budget report - is not a classic windfall tax, which would be levied on banks’ profits.
Instead it would be a super-tax on bonuses over a certain level paid to British based investment bankers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/a_bonus_super_tax.html
is tim the most frequent poster this year?
Romania presidential election too close to call….
Balivia..exit poll out…Morales comfortably re-elected
437 - Depends if you count Tag Team Tim as one or many posters.
436 - “Instead it would be a super-tax on bonuses over a certain level paid to British based investment bankers.”
Isn’t that like, you know, discrimination?
439 he does seem to have lot of stamina for one person doesnt he?!
437 - I’d expect so, unless you count the herd as one, which would be logical.
436 Bye bye to London, as the key financial centre in Europe. How does the government plan on replacing the lost tax revenues?
435 – Tim is the patron saint of lost causes.
He has spent virtually an entire year on PB.com towing the party smear lies, each of which has fallen flat on its face and come to naught.
Word of advice, don’t interrupt a tool wasting 14 hrs a day achieving diddly squat.
443 Leave tim be; he’s the funniest poster here.
432/440 - It is discrimination, and may well end up in the courts. However, it kind of explains why the investment banks have ramped up basic pay by a reported 150% which would reduce the bonus payments and the bankers would avoid the super tax.
442
100,000 to 1,000,000 died in the Iraq war. Maybe 2,000,000 were made refugees. The entire country was trashed. The Middle East was hideously destabilised.
Iran was emboldened by America’s intervention in Iraq to develop nuclear weapons, ditto North Korea. The world is less safe as a result of the Iraq war.
Britain suffered suicide bombings because of its action in Iraq. The entire Muslim world was enraged and provoked by this “new Crusaade”. Israel has become less safe. Billions and billions of dollars were spent on this war - and to what end?
Gays and women are now arguably less free in the new Iraq than they were in the old. The west’s concentration on, and distraction by, the Iraq war has contributed directly to the calamity of Afghanistan. Iraq as a country, ruined, bombed and savaged, is now viciously divided between shia and sunni whereas before it was reasonably ecumenical.
In Britain the lies espoused to justify the war destroyed public faith in politicians. As a result our political system is permanently damaged. The British army likewise suffered its first serious humiliation in centuries. A war which we joined to further our relationship with America ended by damaging that same relationship to an extent that it is now barely functional.
And so on, and so forth.
The Iraq war was such a disaster, in the conception, planning and aftermath, it bears no comparison in the annals of western foreign policy. Even Vietnam had a rationale - defeating communism.
But Saddam was hung! - so Labour’s ghastly war was all worth it.
Hooray.
436.ScottP, I am getting dizzy with all these pirouettes in the briefings on the PBR.
445 - Also, wonder how it will be worded if it is in fact just aimed at bankers, rather than all earning large bonuses / salaries? Quite a few other loopholes spring to mind straight away depending on the wording.
438. “Balivia..exit poll out…Morales comfortably re-elected”
Don’t know whether to be pleased or not - a victory for the left, but also victory for a man who replaced PR with first-past-the-post. Just goes to show how easily good and evil can co-exist.
448 its double for scottish bankers!
Here for a change is a genuine political betting story.
The Conservatives are digging in for a six-week election campaign and are quietly withdrawing resources from some “landslide” seats to maximise David Cameron’s chances of winning a workable majority.
Cheadle, currently held by Liberal Democrats with a majority of just under 4,000, is among seats no longer regarded as likely to fall despite a well-funded, two-year campaign to woo key groups of voters. Party strategists privately admit that some incumbent MPs, particularly Lib Dems, are putting up fiercer-than-expected resistance.
The Tories are also finding it more difficult to persuade working-class voters in constituencies in the North of England to switch their support. “The sort of lifelong Labour Coronation Street terrace voters who came to us because they were so angry about the 10p tax issue have largely returned to Labour again,” said one Tory strategist.
And finishing with a pointer to what we all knew would be an issue the influence of the plastic fetus wavers in primaries.
Some have cited the selection of Fiona Bruce, who was chosen to represent Congleton last weekend over Matthew Hancock, Mr Osborne’s chief of staff, who was also seeking selection.
One pointed out that she brought along members of her local church, the New Life church, to vote for her.
The MP questioned whether the new system would make it easier for incoming MPs to feel captured by particular interest groups, especially religious groups which can mobilise large numbers of supporters.
“We do not want the Tory Party to become like the Republican Party in this respect,” said one Shadow minister.
In fact the presence of around 35 members of the New Life church does not appear to have been decisive since there were more than 220 people present and she won against five rivals.
436 the super bonus tax would only happen once. It would also depress the taxes raised permantly with a vast exodus from the city.
Very very dumb and very very dangerous.
453 - But we all know really it is about dividing lines and elephant traps, will the Tories support it or not I am sure will be the question asked over and over and over again.
Link to 452
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6946686.ece
I suspect that the Lib Dem incumbent prices are decent value.
Jolly good!
Labour vowed last night that it would brand the Tories as “the party of the privileged few” at the election — despite protests that Gordon Brown is seeking to stir up “class war” and place a cap on aspiration.
…
Conservatives respond by claiming inequality has risen under Labour while manufacturing has shrunk. They believe that any effort to revive class politics will repel Middle England voters who were once attracted to Labour by Tony Blair.
George Osborne signalled the direction of Tory strategy as he defended the inheritance tax proposal. “We want to help people who have saved through their lives, who have done the right thing, who want to leave something to their children,” the Shadow Chancellor said. “I am very happy to debate aspiration with the Labour Party.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6946707.ece
453 Many hedge funds will relocate to Switzerland; other banks will move to European financial centres with more welcoming tax regimes. It’s IR35 all over again.
How does the Treasury expect to make up the shortfall in tax revenues; which sectors of the UK are actually making money these days?
343. If a troll is rumbled, is it described as “trumbling”? Is it as bad as wombling?
456. I can’t believe Labour are so stupid/desperate as to pursue this Class War shite. Even their supporters are embarrassed by it.
Ignoring the hypocrisy (Countess Harman, Lord Mandelson, Viscount Benn, the seventeen Labour ministers who went to private school) the basic politics is dim. It looks like a pungently crude attack on wealth and success for the sake of it: i.e. being rich and smart is BAD, Labour think being POOR and a bit SH1T is BETTER.
80% of the public will recoil from this. Who wants to vote for the Party of Ugly, Stupid Losers?
wibbler I don’t understand why politically aware people don’t vote tactically. Idealism and naivete are good excuses, but surely anyone who knows the seat well should maximize the influence of their vote.
What does “maximise the influence of their vote” mean? Does it mean (a) sacrificing one’s principles and voting for a bad party, merely on the excuse that the bad party is slightly less bad than another bad party (b) voting for one of the top two candidates in a marginal constituency (c) witholding one’s vote from the main parties, and voting for a minor party as a protest (d) adding to the moral authority of a party by adding to its national vote total (e) reminding the main parties that they can’t take voters for granted (f) pressurising the main parties on a key issue of concern (g) et cetera ????
Until about 8 or 10 years ago, I was a big fan of tactical voting, on the grounds that every informed voter should be able to (a) form a list of the candidates in order of preference (b) form a relative preference between any two given candidates (c) know who has a chance of winning (d) vote for one of the top candidates who has a chance of winning. I tended to be frustrated or annoyed at people who did not do so, for example people who voted Lib Dem in 1997 in Con/Lab marginals, or people who voted for the minor parties in the constituency section of the AMS election for the London Assembly in 2000 (instead of voting for minor parties only in the additional list section).
But there are circumstances where the fact that the voter prefers A to B, or B to A, is outweighed by the fact that the voter very much prefers C to both A and B. The naive expectation that every politically aware person “should” vote tactically in a FPTP contest is a bit like the Australian system of demanding that everybody “must” list preferences for all candidates in an AV election - even if it means that one is forced to choose between the BNP and NF.
Incidentally, I felt that my vote in 2005 was worth much more than it would have been if I had chosen between Labour and Conservative. Splitting the votes between 19974 and 19899 with a bundle of 193 was very powerful and meaningful, and I have never thought it was wasted.
438/450-At this time next year, we will already know the next president of Brazil. (I thought the campaign would be boring, but it does not seem so now)
232 Susannah. I assume from your post, that English is not your first language - so 5 A grades is very impressive.
461. Is Lula standing for re-election? Is there a strong challenger?
457. EdP “which sectors of the UK are actually making money these days?”
I guess you missed Milliband minor explaining that we are going to be World leaders in green technology, manufacturing global warming data, no, wait, it was manufacturing something to do with global warming…
462. If there’s one thing worse than inverted snobbery, it’s snobbery itself.
459 - If thats what it is you’d be right, but making trustafarians the big beneficiaries of a new Tory Govt was Dave and Georges big mistake..
466 Hee hee. Top stuff tim. You’re really getting the hang of it now.
459 - Doomed to fail, everything Brown is involved in turns to dust.
Also the government seem to expect senior civil servants to accept a 20% pay cut and there be no increase in off the record briefings about damaging/embarraing stories to undermine this dying government.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233742/Pre-Budget-Report-Super-tax-bank-bonuses-Alistair-Darling-target-City-fat-cats.html
Understatement of the week…
On his present plans, the Chancellor will take his foot off the fiscal accelerator in 2010-11 and start to apply the brakes steadily harder until the budget is in balance by 2017-18. But he has a credibility problem.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6946604.ece
232 I certainly agree with Susanna about internships. The other day, an internship with Chris Bryant MP was posted on pb.com — the salary was £5,889 pa.
While a few pb-ers remarked the salary was a bit low, the Parrotting Palmer MP was busy defending Chris Bryant MP:
“Lots of people are keen to do this sort of job for a bit to get a line on their CV.” (NPMP)
MPs are one of the worst offenders of all regarding internships.
So, perhaps Susanna can direct her ire about internships to some of the people responsible — C. Bryant MP, N. Palmer MP & Co.
46- The Constitution does not allow him to stand again. He chose Dilma Rousseff to be his candidate. She never disputed an election before, she has no charisma, she is seen as too serious and arrogant. But she has Lula on her side, and she has, at least, half of PMDB(the biggest party in Brazil). They have a program, and something to show
The opposition has two amazing candidates(in my eyes they only have one), but few support, no plan, and now DEM, one of the largest parties in opposition was involved in a corruption scandal like the one that Lula faced in 2005, which totally destroys the ethic flag that they were going to use next year.
466. You may see the political nuance (if it exists) the average voter is less subtly sensitive.
Most people will see an attack on wealth, success, good fortune, and talent - for the sake of it: truly nasty, nihilistic Labour politics redolent of the 1970s.
Yes, you will shore up your core vote: the 20% of drunken failures who are grimly determined in their hatred of the prosperous. The majority of British people who aspire to better themselves and/or their children will reject this envious miserablism.
This is a big mistake by Labour.
468. Mr Brown alarmed some in his own party last week by signalling a return to class war when he claimed David Cameron’s tax policies were drawn up ‘on the playing fields of Eton’.
Strange, that’s not how the story has been on here all day. Those pesky journalists…
469 - I noticed earlier that you were claiming Darling would lose his seat.
What odds are you looking for on that?
471 is to 463(James Kelly)
459. Sean - underlying that post (which I don’t believe is entirely a joke) is the assumption that poor people are poor because they are stupid and rich people are rich because they are “smart”. Given your absolute belief in immutable IQ and its relation to life chances this is not exactly surprising, but a) it’s such a bleak world view, and b) it’s demonstrably not true. When did we abolish inherited wealth?
471/5. Thanks, Me.
449 Whatever happens to the bankers the tax accountants will be rolling in clover. I can’t wait to see the wording of the legislation. How will they define a banker? What if you contract your services to the bank rather than being a direct employee? As the tax will be a one-off what’s to prevent the bonus being delayed a year or so?
452, 455 tim - A strange article, which starts off with some sensible content about LibDem-held targets and traditional Northern Labour voters, and then gets side-tracked into fantasy about wavering LibDems, plus BNP, UKIP and Green supporters, ALL going back to Labour.
Still your central point is probably right; it’s a question of finding the best risk/reward ratio amongst LibDem incumbents.
My only proviso would be the one I’ve been banging on about all week: if Darling finally shows a hint of the truth at the PBR, some of those core voters are going to feel they’ve been betrayed. For the past year, Labour have done absolutely nothing to disabuse the deluded. That could change the dynamics.
477 -
“Return of Gordon Brown’s stealth tax as ‘thousands more face 40% increase’”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233737/Pre-Budget-Report-Thousands-pay-40-tax.html
474. I’m not
479 - I’ve thought for a while, as you know, that the best constituency value is in the Lib Dem held seats.
This article to me says thbat the Tories think they can win on the back of the Midlands/South/Suburban North seats.
How much effort will go into seats like Romsey for example, with a decent (over 10/%) Lab vote to squeeze interests me.
476. I do not believe Britain is fuelled by resentment and envy any more, and the politics of socialism and “class hatred” depends on envy. Which is why, I believe, Labour’s core vote bash-the-toffs strategy is doomed, despite the immediate emotional rush it affords.
Nowadays when a Brit sees someone rich, they feel intrigued or admiring or indifferent, or at worst mildly irritated if the rich person is obnoxious. They do not feel hatred and anger. So any party that appeals to hatred of, or anger at, the rich - is doomed.
This truth may not apply in Scotland.
476. I do not believe Britain is fuelled by resentment and envy any more, and the politics of socialism and “class hatred” depends on envy. Which is why, I believe, Labour’s core vote bash-the-toffs strategy is doomed, despite the immediate emotional rush it affords.
Nowadays when a Brit sees someone rich, they feel intrigued or admiring or indifferent, or at worst mildly irritated if the rich person is obnoxious. They do not feel hatred and anger. So any party that appeals to hatred of, or anger at, the rich - is doomed.
This truth may not apply in Scotland.
482 tim, have you ever lost and subsequently paid out on any wager made with a poster on pb.com?
485,
Yes, simple Ed, as has been pointed out to you on numerous occasions.
484. “This truth may not apply in Scotland.”
In that case your ‘truth’ is actually more about English and Welsh people than it is about “Brits”, then?
You haven’t addressed the issue of whether you honestly think poor people are poor because they are “stupid”.
Nice to see Gordo trying to play catch up. Again.
Gordon Brown will today seek to blunt the Tory attack on wasteful public spending with a promise to slash the cost of senior civil servants and cull the number of quangos.
Labour has been under pressure to match Conservative plans to reduce the cost of government since David Cameron made them the centrepiece of the Tory party annual conference.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6946716.ece
Gordon Brown ventures forth…!
“Copenhagen must be a turning point. Our children won’t forgive us if we fail”
As with all things CIF, the article is rubbish but the comments are amusing.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cif-green/2009/dec/06/gordon-brown-climate-change-copenhagen
“Britain should tackle its £175bn budget deficit in “a single stroke” with a comprehensive reform package concentrated on cutting spending, not raising taxes, according to a Treasury analysis of successful attempts at slashing debt.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/abf16bb8-e29e-11de-b028-00144feab49a.html
486 tim, care to name an example?
Another thing about the Birmingham born and based and Oxford educated susanna - wasn’t she claiming expert knowledge of the football and political allegiances on merseyside last week?
491 - No point discussing betting with one of the herd simpletons.
493 Why the reluctance to answer? As you’re so fond of telling me, this website is devoted to politics and betting; surely you should be eager to answer any questions relating to those subjects. Or should I assume there are no examples?
493 - So, anyway, Tim. At the risk of being a one trick pony always banging on with one of two themes do you now feel like providing me with some positive reasons for voting Labour?
At last, some good news for Gordo. A columnist in a “major” newspaper agrees with his vision of class war.
Sadly, it’s one of the most annoying people in Britain, and The Independent…
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/yasmin-alibhai-brown/yasmin-alibhaibrown-were-still-the-most-classridden-country-under-the-sun-1835529.html
“David Cameron says it “is not a matter for me” whether Michael Ashcroft, the Conservative Party’s billionaire deputy chairman, pays any tax in the UK.
The Tory leader insisted that Lord Ashcroft’s tax affairs are a private matter. But a different rule is now applied by Mr Cameron to Conservative MPs and parliamentary candidates.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ashcrofts-taxes-nothing-to-do-with-me-says-cameron-1835503.html
496 - “The most class ridden country under the sun”
Really? What about her own parents home country of India?
493 tim, further to your delightful post, off the top of my head I can think of the bet that never was with ‘Albion’, and another that you won but had problems getting a payout. But no bets that you’ve lost and settled.
“Young Tories, a peculiarly repellent breed, who in the early 1980s would have posters of Maggie Thatcher on their walls; the more provocative wore “Hang Nelson Mandela” T-shirts and after a night drinking with fellow members of the Monday Club, would goose-step around our university towns for a laugh. Heady days.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/nicholas-lezard-forgive-bercow-his-past-indiscretions-1835530.html
497 Gabble, did you notice this article on your trawl of The Independent?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/polls-suggest-brown-bounce-over-1835254.html
Ha. Now that the New Jersey Giants have crushed the Dallas Cowgirls (who are probably crying like Big Jessies at this very moment) following the Mighty Philadelphia Eagles AWESOME display at Atlanta earlier, I can retire for the evening.
Night all
498 - YAB’s family are from Uganda, the family were kicked out by Idi Amin in the seventies and came to the UK. She was already here studying at Oxford.
501. A rather peculiar headline, given that there were two polls and one of them shows a gap that is continuing to narrow. But I suppose journalists do like a simple narrative - maybe they tossed a coin to decide which way to go?
503 - “her father moved there from India in the Twenties.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2001/jan/21/observercashsection.theobserver18
489 - Stunningly popular that man!
495 - We were given that yeaterday by BenM
Apparently Labour have been rubbish for the last 12 years, but they say they will get better.
Vote Labour.
505 (cont) Just to be absolutely clear, which my original post was poorly worded, her mother is from East Africa, her father from India.
504 - Agreed. We don’t know what part of the cycle we are in. I remain surprised that these polls appeared this weekend. I would have thought post-PBR would be the best time.
500. My all-time favourite line from a Teletext article -
“Reports that he [Bercow] had penned The John Bercow Guide To Understanding Women were entirely false, he insisted.”
Sounds like a line straight out of Blackadder.
507 - That should have been:
Vote Labour. It may not always be this bad.
508 – Thanks for the update, I’m a great admirer of Yasmin Alibhai-Brown’s struggle against all odds, this poor down trodden product of a rich colonial family, educated at Oxford, member of the establishment, married to a millionaire and yet chooses to send her son to Eton is the kind of woman we need to lecture us mere plebs on ‘class’
460. Tactical voting is a consequence of an electoral system, FPTP, which is philosophically unsupportable.
Under FPTP you are often faced with the choice of being a fool or a liar, and if you choose the latter course, knowing that your dishonesty may have been effective only because of other voters’ honesty.
Other, more sophisticated electoral systems remove the dilemma from the voter…
512 - WTF did she get an MBE for (which she later “returned”)?
“Susanna” could have a first in golf course design from Oxford Poly (or whatever it’s called now).
That would make her claim accurate while not being inconsistent with her being utterly, excruciatingly thick.
Any bias from Oxbridge towards state school pupils absolutely pales alongside the bias towards Oxbridge exhibited by state school pupils’ teachers.
A propos, my Christmas present from the missus is going to be my college scarf. I know not when I lost the old one but I haven’t seen it in decades.
It was a toss-up between that and an old school scarf, but I asked for the college scarf because it looks more like an old Etonian one. Or I think it does. Our ties do anyway.
514 – Yes, YAB was awarded an MBE which she reluctantly handed back when her trendy friends convinced her it was not the done thing to accept.
I’ve just bought The Genesis Secret second-hand off Amazon Marketplace for a penny, plus postage of £2.75. Bargain!
Move quick to snap up yours, there are only 94 second hand ones left!
Exotic link of the day: the leading Danish (Conservative) paper gives Brown credit for being the first leader to commit to coming to the conference (now everyone else is…):
http://www.berlingske.dk/klima/statslederen-som-gik-forrest
The article has a go at him for not being green in the past, and suspects electoral motives, but credits him with leading the charge where Obama and numerous other leaders are now following.
518 Nick Palmer MP
I’m sure other leaders love the fact that Brown spends our money on his global “grand bargains”, with his “leadership” role, so they don’t have to spend so much of theirs.
Cuts v ?!??!?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8398116.stm
Here’s a reminder that you can watch the 1992 election here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z08foh7ExcE
514. Her Services to Race Baiting?
501. Even a dead cat would expect a refund on such a bounce. Maybe he should get the University of East Anglia to investigate the physical properties of the bounce. Their raw data will show little to know statistical evidence of a bounce occurring. However, when processed, the value added data will indicate Browns bounce being so high as to almost going into orbit.
The original data will be subsequently misplaced.
343 - re susanna, so she takes home £1900 pcm, rent £1250 pcm and claims HOUSING BENEFIT. For crying out loud. This makes me really annoyed, I was a single parent for 12 years, the only support I got was child benefit same as any other parent. I went without, no fridge, telephone, washing machine, holidays or social life for the first 5 years so that I could save for a deposit on my first house and then provide some basic furnishings. Go find a cheaper property and pay the rent from your own income rather than the state having to support you, or let me rephrase that, why should my taxes support you? And before you start, I also had a violent partner and made the same choice to be on my own.
And you berate tories, oh the irony.
521 - Andy JS , and well worth watching so thanks again. I only wish I’d taken a note of where the best bits were. I might well run through them again in the run up to the GE.
524. I’ve no idea if Susanna is real or a fictional character (the evidence is mixed) but if by any chance she’s real I see no reason why she should be denounced for claiming benefits she is legally entitled to. Most certainly it should not debar her from expressing her own political opinions - the implication that it should is one of the ugliest features of right-of-centre discourse in this country.
526, James, where did I say she couldn’t express her political views? However, the state should be there to help those who need it. When someone on circa 30k pa gets housing allowance the this IMO reduces the amount available to those with genuine need. Sorry but her need for state support seems to stem mostly from her living in such an expensive property.
527. “James, where did I say she couldn’t express her political views?”
Well, you certainly seemed angry that she dared to berate the Tories, based on her personal circumstances (which may well be a fiction, so this is a potentially academic argument).
My broader point is this. If the right in this country (or indeed just as likely the ‘centre-left’) think that it’s morally reprehensible that benefits should be paid out in certain circumstances, there is a straightforward democratic path they can follow to change the system. There is no need to have a go at individuals for simply claiming their legal entitlements, as if they’re personally ‘taking your money’. They’re doing no such thing.
518 Gordon Brown gav den fuld gas!
Not saying it’s a great slogan, but it’s got to be better than “Forward, not back”…
525 - My favourate part is the interview at 7.20 with Gordon Brown. Seems he’s always been crap at making forecasts. “The Conservates have lost the election” Gordon Brown, Election Night 1992
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygAIm4aJSBI
James, we’ll just have to agree to differ on that one as it’s not her berating the Tories that annoys me. susanna was complaining about her benefits being reduced by an incoming Tory government, were there to be one. I was expressing my own opinion that she is on benefits due to her own personal choice to live in an expensive property. Or should there be no upper limit, maybe she could move into a house costing £2500 pcm ? It would be legal but morally irreprehensible in my eyes. Perhaps you have highlighted a dividing line, the one between a feeling of entitlement and one of self-sufficiency. As I said, I have personal experience of being in this position which is why I feel so passionate about it. Self-sufficiency brings it own rewards.
James, as you said potentially an academic argument, she seems more like some construct with a not particularily robust back-story.
531. Well, the point about a ’sense of entitlement’ is a very easy one to make given that I used the word entitlement in my own post, but in truth a lot of people you’d probably regard as “self-sufficient” are rather keen on their financial entitlements as well. As we’ve repeatedly seen recently.
530. Actually, what struck me most was that in the early stages it was quite clear that the Tories thought they had lost their majority as well - including Chris Patten. I had always thought that the Tories privately knew they were winning, but it seems not.
Some of the quotes from the Tories in that broadcast may come back to haunt them, if by any chance there is a hung parliament next year. They were certainly completely dismissive of any sense that a long-running government that loses its majority has “lost the moral right to govern”.
Morning all.
It’s my 30th birthday.
I’ll have a little cry.
On the tactical voting thing, I will be voting Lib Dem at the general election as there are two MPs fighting my seat, one of them has taken the p1ss with the second home thing and the other has not.
It makes it easier to vote tactically when I know who I am voting for and against.
I understand people saying that it is somehow betraying your principles to vote tactically but I disagree.
533 - James, don’t get me wrong, if susanna is not a construct, then I’d admire her tenacity, it certainly isn’t easy to be a single parent at any time, I just disagree with her on the need for the state to support her expensive choice of housing. This does not mean I think the state should not support those with real need, in fact I have seen from painful personal experience lately just how this does not always happen.
535 - Happy Birthday David, hope it’s a good one.
535.Happy Birthday David, wait until its your 40th.
Kristin, just want to say thanks for your kind words on the earlier thread. Will drop you an email tomorrow to catch up with non PB.com stuff.
Be interesting to see where we are with the Populus poll, if the fieldwork was done over the weekend, will it be nearer the narrative from ComRes or Mori rather than ICM or YouGov which were carried out during the week.
Lots going on in the media this weekend as well, how much will have been picked up outside the Westminster bubble this time of year remains to be seen.
Nite all.
538 - thanks Christina.. BTW wait until it’s your 50th
Actually it’s when your first child reaches 30 that’s the killer.. take my word for it. You’ll need a good lie down. ( ps my son was admitted as an emergency case on Thursday last, he was fine one minute, round here for lunch chatting away and then 15 minutes after returning home he had a temp of 41c.. not good but he’s fine now, it was a hickman line infection, thankfully they have now removed it. ) 