Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?
December 4th, 2009
Is this just a quirk or an election pointer?
As PB regulars will know I keep a close eye each month on the forced choice question that is put in the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. It’s been done in the same format for years and the party split might be an indicator of potential tactical voting.
For a long period, up to the past couple of years Lib Dem supporters were much more inclined to respond “Labour under Brown” rather than “the Conservatives under Cameron”. That started to change and over the past six months the LD voters in the national polls were putting the Tories ahead, if only by a point or two.
In the latest poll Labour had edged into the lead again with this group of voters. I was about to write about this move and I thought I’d better check the poll of northern marginals which was carried out for the paper at the same.
And wow. Look at the difference. Nationally Labour had a 3 point edge amongst this segment - but in the marginals poll they were trailing by 16 points.
As far as I can see this question has not been asked in a YouGov marginals poll before so we have no comparative data. Also in LAB>CON marginals the Lib Dems have been squeezed sharply so the size of the party’s sub-sample is quite small.
This might be nothing - but something could be going on there.
Mike Smithson
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1st
Thirst?
Damn! Was too busy watching polar bear videos
Intriguing stuff Mike - suggests the potential for significant tactical unwind….and dare I say it VIPA-style results in some places at least…
How?
Interesting spot Mike.
Mark Seniors 4 Dave?
Wow is right. Well spotted Mike.
Interesting.
Very interesting….
I presume that “marginals” covers mostly Lab:Con contests, but with a few LibDem:Con marginals thrown in too? If so, would expect that to skewer the result even more to the Tories when those LibDem:Con marginals are excluded.
Libdems doing well down South though.
http://www.gavpolitics.co.uk/blog/2009/12/03/second-adur-councillor-joins-liberal-democrats/
I wonder ‘come the day’ how different the marginals will actually be, I suspect not that much.
5 You are Fred Dineage and I claim my Sioux war bonnet.
Yes, they are.
The other point of note in the figures there is how the ‘Labour’ vote drops off once Brown’s name is mentioned. Unless people have a crystal ball in which they can see Brown leaving as Labour leader between now and the election, those answering Labour to the voting intention should be 100% behind ‘Labour under Brown’, yet they lose one vote in eleven in the marginals between the two questions where the only difference is the mention of Brown (plus any other prompts from earlier questions).
FPT.
Amphibious fish:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amphibious_fish
Who are the 1% of Tories wanting Brown???
13 David Davis?
13. They asked Bercow ?
Nelson vs Bob [BURN THE DENIERS!] Ward on Sky
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw1DVj3r1Hg&feature=player_embedded
13 Tony Blair
13 tim
Any idea of the margins of error on this?
Probably quite large.
“Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?”
Going by the figures it would appear so, more importantly 50% of LDs appear out of kilter with Clegg’s campaign rhetoric.
13
Tourists from Broxtowe?
“As far as I can see this question has not been asked in a YouGov marginals poll before so we have no comparative data. Also in LAB>CON marginals the Lib Dems have been squeezed sharply so the size of the party’s sub-sample is quite small.”
I am convinced that the Conservatives will do better in the seats they are targeting in Scotland if the public think that this is a close GE between Labour and the Tories. The more the media and the politicians bang on about hung Parliaments and coalition deals, the more that perception takes hold. What ever the national picture in the polls, its where those votes are piling up for the parties that will matter most.
If you didn’t see This Week last night, catch it again online. Frank Luntz was on the first segment of the programme, I think that while we all talk about the current Labour strategy to deal with their Conservative opposition, he reminded of that old rule about governments losing elections rather than oppositions winning them.
The last time I voted LibDem was in the London Assembly election last year. But I voted Boris for Mayor!
20 - How on earth do you figure that one out, Simon? Even if you accept Clegg’s “campaign rhetoric” is more favourable to Labour (which I don’t really), the national poll shows him in line with his voters, albeit that they are split. It’s only the poll of marginals (mainly Con/Lab marginals) that show it the other way. I don’t see how you get the 50% from the national poll.
Incidentally, I suspect the reason for the difference is that the marginals poll is predominantly in Labour held marginal seats and the result reflects Labour’s success since the mid-90s in winning over Lib Dems in such seats (leaving the remaining Lib Dems in those areas as the more right wing ones). But it’s hard to say without a comparison.
Looking at the overall national picture, what this does suggest is that Gordon Brown is not personally as unpopular as we tend to assume on PB.com, and that Cameron’s work in detoxifying the Conservative brand is still not complete. That over one in three voters prefer Brown to Cameron, and another 18% are unsure, are amazing figures when you think about just how low Brown’s reputation is amongst the politically aware (irrespective of party allegiance).
The next election in the marginals and beyond will be decided by turnout and the basic maths that accompanies this.
The Lib Dems are very very good at getting their vote out.The Tory vote is very apathetic.
If that Tory vote can be energised as it was in the London Mayorals then the Lib Dems could take a pasting.If turnout is low then the Tories will struggle.
In Sutton for example the LD,Burstow will get between 16-19000 no matter what.I doubt he will exceed it by much.However if the Dormant Tories get out they will get up to 24000
I presume this is all marginals, not just Lib Dem marginals (which are predominently Tory/LD fights).
In which case, because LD/Tory marginals primarily will be about retaining or squeezing a Labour vote, then that is what will inform the local strategy.
Richard N surely this polling picture does not match Brown’s approval ratings. And that is odd.
This is based on a sample of 97 people.
Mike,
One hypothesis comes to mind that explains it quite well. In Con/Lab marginals, a chunk of the “Labour sympathising Lib Dems” are already tactically voting for the Labour party, hence skewing the remaining Lib Dems in favour of the Conservatives.
The sample size of Lib Dems was only 97 in the marginals.
A back of the envelope calculation suggests the margin of error is at least 10% for this sample.
Not sure you can draw any conclusions here.
27 - to add to which, if a Tory government looks inevitable then the strategy would have to be about acting as a break on Cameron having an excessive majority, and/or “its safe to have a Lib Dem MP if there’s going to be a Tory government”.
3.Plato, got a link, I have a soft spot for anything to do with polar bears. I used to feel for the one at Edinburgh zoo in that much smaller enclosure, looking forward to seeing her enjoying her much bigger home up in the Highlands at some point.
If you are enjoying ‘climategate’ watch Bob Ward of the LSE lose his rag:
Fraser Nelson takes on Bob Ward, Sky News Dec 4th.
“…Richard North demonstrates in this fascinating analysis. Using what he calls a Tiger Woods Index (TWI), he compares the amount of interest being shown by internet users (as shown by the number of general web pages on Google) and compares it with the number of news reports recorded. The ratio indicates what people are really interested in, as opposed to what the MSM thinks they ought to be interested in.”
(web pages / news reports):
1. Climategate: 28,400,000 – 2,930 = 9693
2. Afghanistan: 143,000,000 – 154,145 = 928
3. Obama: 202,000,000 – 252,583 = 800
4. Tiger Woods: 22,500,000 – 46,025 = 489
5. Gordon Brown: 12,300,000 – 37,021 = 332
6. Climate change: 22,200,000 – 68,419 = 324
7. Sally Bercow: 25,000 – 86 = 290
8. David Cameron: 545,000 – 4837 = 113
9. Meredith Kercher: 261,000 – 3,471 = 75
10. Chilcot Inquiry: 125,000 – 4,350 = 29
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100018847/climategate-goes-uber-viral-gore-flees-leaving-evil-henchmen-to-defend-crumbling-citadel/
Clear media bias in favour of Cameron - but we all knew that, didn’t we?
33 Here you go - I’m a terrible softy, I cried - he’s so cute.
http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/12/greenies-wanted-to-put-him-down.html
27 - Looking at it on the YouGov website just now, Tabbers, it’s even more specific than that. The marginals poll referred to appears to be the Lab/Con Northern marginals poll so it includes no Lib Dem/Tory marginals at all.
31 - Not only is it based on a sample of 97 , when the 97 are asked
Thinking about possible results of the next general election, which of these do
you think would be best for Britain?
the answer is
con/lib coalition 43%
lab/lib coalition 46%
Is this pb’s own climategate? Dodgy conclusions on very little data?
LibDemNorthernMarginalsPollGate, has a very catchy ring to it.
I find it hard to believe that Liberal Democrat voters in marginal seats would be so stupid as to actually *prefer* 5 more years of Brown to Cameron. Even Labour supporters hate him.
Although it does beg the question: what would happen next year if Blair had never been deposed, had fired Brown as Chancellor *and* was still Prime Minister going into the election?
We shouldn’t forget the gilts and foreign exchange markets as a rug ready to be pulled from under Brown/Labour, if there’s any sign of their chances of avoiding obliteration recede …. any sign and borrowing costs rise and the £-sterling falls.
32.“its safe to have a Lib Dem MP if there’s going to be a Tory government”.
Tabman, I made a similar point@22. I think that the Libdems and the SNP will be squeezed far more in Scotland if the voters in the seats which are most likely to change hands think this is could be a close/hung Parliament GE. If the idea that the Tories are going to romp home to victory at the GE with a nice big majority as the narrative, then the Libdems and the SNP will do better.
25. But then a surprisingly large minority probably favoured Major in 1997 and Kinnock (!) in 1992. I wonder what share favoured Foot in 1983…
36.Plato, thanks.
41. That should read “their chances of avoiding obliteration improve”.
Labour posters seem a bit rattled today.
40 - voters in general don’t elect the Prime Minister; only those in Fife, Witney (and West Sheffield) have that opportunity next time round.
46 If only that were true. It would make a change Tory posters have been rattled all week.
I just don’t like polls without error bars. What do you think this is, the CRU?
25
That over one in three voters prefer Brown to Cameron, and another 18% are unsure, are amazing figures when you think about just how low Brown’s reputation is amongst the politically aware (irrespective of party allegiance).
That was the case in ‘74 Wilson had been written of by most political commentators, (left and right) a busted flush, no chance of a comeback etc.
47 - And why have you chosen to stand in those three seats in particular, Tabman?
I feel a Martin Day moment coming on.
Wouldn’t it be incredibly funny if the LibDem leadership get wiped out at the GE and they are left with a handful of Lembit Opiks.
49 Wilson was rather special, IMO a cut above any current leader.
47.Tabman, catch Frank Luntz on This Week. The better question might be whether the voters want 18 years of Labour on the back of their performance in the last three years.
51. Yes
“The Lib Dems are very very good at getting their vote out.The Tory vote is very apathetic.”
What do you base that assertion on?
46 - Really?
How many Lib Dems per seat do you think were polled, three? four?
33. The polar bear is already at the Highland Zoo… the Beeb had a report a couple of months ago.
56 That’s the whole Lib Dem vote. I doubt it’s that high.
WRT local by-elections, the Conservatives have suffered a net loss this year, but they have still won more seats than Labour and Lib Dems combined.
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/index.htm
[fpt,441] - I can’t, and wouldn’t wish to, argue with any of that, except that you need to add an asterisk to:
Which of these options would you say is closer to the true values for the potential worst-case sea-level rise by 2100:
A - 25-50cm*
* Plus an unquantifiable contribution from the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, because we honestly don’t have a clue what’s going to happen there.
Obviously, this means that the IPCC figures understate the worst-case scenario, because they leave out the biggest contributors to the worst-case scenario.
Although… since AR4 most research has tended to suggest that the contribution [by 2100] from GIS+WAIS will be lower than the worst-case scenario as of AR4. A relatively recent report for the UK government, for example, concluded that there would be no need to replace the Thames Barrier before 2100.
Sea levels will continue to rise for a long time in the future though.
57.Baskerville, yep I know. I followed the story with interest. I meant that I was looking forward to getting the chance to visit the Highland zoo at some point when I am up in that area. I am from Aviemore.
53 I thought Luntz was very impressive and ‘practical’ on This Week.
The idea of using the Reagan #do you think it’s got better since 3 yrs ago# was a killer question.
Diane Abbott was hilarious in her assertion that nursey apron strings would keep Gordon in office
There’s several problems here. 1) How do you define a ‘marginal’? 2) Is this all marginals or just Labour/Tory? Presumably it’s only the latter marginals that will be of interest in this case.
47. I don’t see the relevance of your that post Tabman.
I’m asking how Labour would be faring if Blair was still leading them rather than Brown.
It’s clear that Brown is a major turnoff. It’s also clear that Blair was much more attractive to Middle England.
Brown leading Labour is costing them several % points in the polls.
Finally, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that a significant chunk of voters are actively considering the potential Prime Minister when casting their local constituency vote.
55-Sean you only have to look at recent byelections.
I know from personal experience how hard it is to motivate Tories especially in south london.They think everybody else will take care of voting for them.
The LDs on the other hand are well marshalled and motivated.
49 Not amazing at all. If there were only two parties, Conservative and Labour, I’m sure that the vote would divide along those lines, however unpopular one of the two had become. It would be like the equivalent of Nixon v McGovern, or Reagan v Mondale.
Labour led by 15% on that measure, in 2005.
Don’t forget Luntz concluded that Cameron would win, but without a majority.
65 Polling evidence suggests that the Conservatives are the most motivated to vote.
And recent (presumably local) by -elections, have been reasonably good for the Conservatives, with the exception of last week.
64. Apologies for typos.
Luntz is good entertainment and/or Cockney rhyming slang.
65 timmo They think everybody else will take care of voting for them.
More likely that they feel it is hopeless trying to improve anything until we get rid of Brown at the GE.
71. Conservative voters in the SW seemed very motivated to get the Lib Dems out earlier this year.
71 Richard you’re beginning to have an almost Tim like obsession with old Gordy. Not healthy. I know it’s been a bad week for you lot, but cheer up.
71- Richard
i hope you are right
72 - That was before Dave’s genius Europe policy emerged.
The SW is different maybe from London where they are much more entrenched.
MPs are backed up by the council and vice versa.
Remember Sutton has the longest held Lib Dem council in the country.
67. I’d have to re-check it, but I think Luntz conclusion was the Tories as the largest party, an overall majority was inconclusive.
O/T. Is anyone else interested in the World Cup draw? Having just checked the prices (which I guess will change afterwards) England look a bit tight at 6/1 and Italy are surely the best value at 14/1.
My prediction for the draw is that South Africa will get a good draw (if they get France or Portugal I’ll shoot myself) and Brazil and Spain will be in opposite halves. Not that I’m suggesting it’s fixed, of course.
75 TIMBOT, whilst we’re on the subject of genius policies, I note that Swervin’ Gordon was forced to carry out another embarrassing U-turn yesterday -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/6721324/Families-to-keep-2400-in-childcare-vouchers-after-Gordon-Browns-U-turn.html
50 -
53 - yes, i think that is a better question. THere is a disconnect between Brown and Labour.
73 You’re right, Jonathan!
62.Plato, I thought that was the best and most informative guest slot we have had for a while on This Week, and Luntz really nailed the main point. Everyone keeps talking and focusing on whether Cameron has sealed the deal, or if the Tory vote is soft. Luntz on the other hand thinks that its the Tory lead and the performance of Brown and his party that will decide this election. I notice too that he would not rule out a Hung Parliament either.
And I agree, that Reagan question was a killer, Diane Abbott was really riled and Portillo barely got a word in edge ways. She really didn’t like the message that Luntz was giving them, or his focus on the Labour performance and negativity being a vote loser.
I must admit that I laughed when she smugly said ‘hang onto nanny for fear of something worse’. At the moment, what can be worse than we already have, Brown, this government and the current economic mess?
68 - I think we can all see the Tories still have the potential to cock up this election.
Vote Zac. Swingback.
78 - A very sensible policy limiting tax relief to the basic rate.
Should be done with pansions too, as the Lib Dems correctly argue.
62 - I loved Luntz response to Abbot - “What exactly have you got now?”
67 - You said that last night and it was wrong then as well.
Wrong, I think, Runnymede. The Tory vote fell in the South West earlier this year. So did the Lib Dem vote. It was UKIP and the Green Party who were the real beneficiaries.
But then that was a Euro election. And just after the expenses scandals - in an area where most of the MPs were Lib Dems.
I don´t think it is a very good predictor for next year´s general election.
42. “If the idea that the Tories are going to romp home to victory at the GE with a nice big majority as the narrative, then the Libdems and the SNP will do better.”
In that case, why is there is a history of the Liberals and SNP doing well in particularly tight elections, ie. 1974? It seems to me that when voters’ minds are concentrated on a polarised Lab/Con choice, what they actually realise is what a truly rotten choice that is.
79.Tabman, that is the question that Luntz posed last night on This Week, and I think that he was bang on the money with it. Diane Abbott was not a happy bunny.
82 tim - A very sensible policy limiting tax relief to the basic rate. Should be done with pensions too, as the Lib Dems correctly argue.
And what about final-salary schemes, or would the public sector be exempt from being clobbered by double taxation in this way?
“Tories crash to another by-election defeat”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-crash-to-another-byelection-defeat-1834101.html
76. But that wouldnt be to hard though would it? Libdems are very good at ‘pavement and doorstep politics, but have shown themselves to be pretty darn awful at running anything, ending up out of office a few short years after gaining it.
For most of those involved in local politics this is a source of humour, for Libdems however, it is a source of training materials:
http://glumcouncillors.tumblr.com/
Dunno if anyone got on the Windies when I suggested their long odds at the Adelaide Oval yesterday?
The bookies obviously still expect a collapse at some stage as they are laying 7s and above against the Windies despite them already having 336 on the board. I suggest that is silly.
48
Touche ! Or should I say touchy ?
83. Luntz just doesn’t get it. I got the distinct impression he thought a Tory victory in the popular vote would be a ‘win’, regardless of how it translated into seats. I think David Cameron cares whether he has a majority or not, even if Luntz doesn’t.
LMAO, Ed Milipede drowning on Sky about Climategate and then is cut off mid sentence to go live to David Beckham arriving in Cape Town.
Labour = less important than washed out footballers
84 - Luntz concluded.
“I’m not convinced that the Conservatives get the majority they are seeking”
With the LD vote, surely there is a core level vote from what might have been the SDP who will be much closer to New Labour. There will be the more market-orientated supporters who will be happier with the centre-right Conservatives. The question is with the new Eton-focus nonsense are we seeing the death of New Labour and a return to Labour of older days? If so, will that worry that more SDP side of the vote?
79 - I will be standing for three seats in the General myself, Tabman. Personally, I am opting for Regent’s Park, Caithness and Totnes. I shall simply inform electors that I plan to divide my efforts based on whether I need to be near to my club, my estate or my mistress at the time, and that they should be grateful to have me at all.
85. I was referring to the county elections. As for them being a good predictor of next year’s GE, we’ll see - but I can understand why you hope that they aren’t.
Funny how the Independent isn’t.
89 On the other hand Gabbie we smashed Labour in Deal yesterday and also now have our first Councillor in Mansfield.
The los in Thanet was bad but it was very much down to the Tory candidate shooting himself in the foot by living so much in Panama!!
Mildly amusing tweet from H Macrory…
“Balls tells the TES he ‘resisted moving’ to the Treasury. hmm…”
http://twitter.com/henrymacrory/statuses/6334373182
Now don’t all laugh at once…?
http://order-order.com/2009/12/04/ukip-bus-stolen/
94 - Great stuff. Milliband deserves all he gets. I am a Tory who believes that human activity has made a contribution to climate change but for Milliband to call David Davis and Nigel Lawson “sabotuers” is stupid beyond belief. Clearly the plan is to blame the Tories for any failure at Copenhagen !!!
Instead of insults best to let transparency reign
“The Non-Dom in the Condom”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/cartoon/2009/dec/02/steve-bell-david-cameron-cartoon
96. “With the LD vote, surely there is a core level vote from what might have been the SDP who will be much closer to New Labour.”
Those votes would have returned to Labour ages ago. Given Owen’s Thatcherite and authoritarian streaks, I can’t believe his natural constituency woulds have preferred Kennedy to Blair in 2001!
103 - The Cameron wing agree with Miliband
Mr Yeo, who now chairs the Commons Environmental Audit Committee, hit back at Tory critics of Mr Cameron’s stance on green issues and predicted that climate change sceptics will have disappeared in five years.
Mr Yeo said: “A significant number of core Conservative voters – mostly among older people – are reluctant to accept the [climate change] evidence. I don’t think they [doubting Tory MPs] will be a significant influence in the next parliament and will gradually diminish in the population.
“The dying gasps of the deniers will be put to bed. In five years time, no one will argue about [there being] a man-made contribution to climate change.”
PoliticsHome - Class War - Bring it On…
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/class_war%3F_bring_it_on.html
106. The only wing Yeo should be in is the psychiatric wing.
103 indeed, when they went back to him he got out his trademark sneer and muttered about always being happy to make way for Becks.
82 Why? Surely, we want encourage people to save for their pensions?
95 It depends what sort of majority he thinks they’re seeking.
106 I don’t think Yeo is particularly close to Cameron.
105 - Well they appeared to in 2005… But there are two traditions within the LDs. Could that explain the difference? I still think with Charles Kennedy at the helm and the Iraq enquiry rumbling along in the background, the LDs really could have been on the cusp of something…
101.Weren’t we fed the line at that the time that Balls and Mandelson magnanimously gave up their moves to the Treasury and Foreign Office to save Brown’s premiership when Darling and Miliband threatened to resign if moved? In fact, wasn’t Balls caught saying goodbye to his colleagues in the Education Dept before the reshuffle actually went pear shaped and had to be unshuffled in a night of extreme panic?
tag-team-tim using more unattributed ‘quotes’ from the Hedgehog Herald.
108. I’d put Yeo on the ‘no brain’ wing of the Tory party with Lansley and John Gummer.
114 - His views on climate change mirror your leaderships, and everyone knows that.
Come on climate boys, scrap scrap scrap scrap.
115, hmm. If it’s scrapping you’re after, why not comment on yet another Brown u-turn, this time on childcare vouchers?
Poor Brown. Less than six months to an election and his party is still telling him what to do.
111. “Well they appeared to in 2005…”
But a lot of people who switched from Labour to Lib Dem in 2005 were left-liberal types who were angry over Iraq. Those are the sorts of people who in the 1980s would either a) have stuck with Labour, or b) been more to sympathetic to the Liberals rather than the SDP (specifically under Owen’s leadership).
115. Meh - Yeo’s hardly worth the finger movement. One of the big regrets of the expenses scandal was that he didn’t buy a duck house.
103. Earlier today Milliband (minor) accused sceptics of being “flat Earthers” who responded by promising “The Enlightenment and Reason”.
This is perhaps unfortunate then.
Church leaders across the world have united in advocating the “moral imperative” for effective action to counter global warming in Copenhagen.
The Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams will preach in Westminster tomorrow at a service led by 16 senior churchmen from throughout the UK. More than 3,000 worshippers are being bused in from around the country for the service, to be followed by a “stop climate chaos” march with as many as 10,000 protesters.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article6944485.ece
Sad news about the Corus closure. Of course it was inevitable…
PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown is to personally intervene in the Corus crisis.
http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/campaigns-and-north-east-events/save-our-steel/save-our-steel-news/2009/06/17/pm-gordon-brown-steps-into-corus-battle-84229-23898578/
115, 116 By the way, talking of internal fights, what happened to the Royal Mail vote? I have an outstanding bet with Paddy Power and whether the vote would be won, and I guess they ought to void it now that Brown has definitely bottled out in the face of pressure from Union paymasters.
116 - I did.
Who are you backing in the war?
The Notting Hill Huskies or the Yorkshire Jets?
119 The modern equivalent of vicars going down to discos.
116. The last time I checked, the Archbishop of Canterbury accepted not only the spherical nature of our world, but also (gasp) the theory of evolution. Sounds like he’s being similarly far-sighted on climate change.
This is very funny
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/04/gropenhagen-prostitutes-offer-free-climate-summit-sex/
Never mind Gordo, bask in the brilliance of your financial regulation cunning plan…
buried in the document, is the revelation that the FSA and the Treasury gave RBS “a clean bill of health” in October 2008, days before the bank nearly collapsed. Details are scarce and I haven’t seen the relevant Treasury document to which the NAO refers; but this disclosure is astonishing, even by the standards of Fred the Shred, the FSA et al.
Oops. How about the other great Scottish bank
A report by the National Audit Office published today says the government began formulating ’specific plans’ to help HBOS in the spring of 2008.
It said the authorities were aware of ‘the potential weaknesses at HBOS’ as early as autumn 2007 and that a few months later they began to draw up proposals to intervene ’should that bank get into difficulty’.
Hmm. Good job Gordo is leading the World, and others are flocking to follow his lead
Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chairman, has come up with an interesting intervention on the British debate about banking supervision.
Speaking in the Senate last night, he made plain that Gordon Brown had been wrong to remove supervisory powers from the Bank of England - the main plank of Tory criticism of the former Chancellor.
“Over the past few years the government of Britain removed from the Bank of England most of its supervisory authorities. When the crisis hit - for example when the Northern Rock bank came under stress - the Bank of England was completely in the dark and unable to deal effectively with what turned out to be a destructive run and a major problem for the British economy.
So currently the trend in UK and elsewhere is quite the opposite of taking away those authorities - it is to give the central bank the authority and information it needs to know what’s going on in the banking system… for financial stability maintenance I think it’s very very important for the Fed to have that kind of information and insight into the banking system”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/bernanke-backs-tory-central-bank-plans.html
125 - hopefully the climate change participants will spend more time screwing them than talking about ways to screw the rest of us
124, he also thinks Sharia Law is inevitable.
The Lib Dems don’t waste resources in the Lab/Con marginals where they are way behind. This is where national polling gives a false impression. If they are say in single figures in 50-100 such marginals, then their vote, where they count is probably up at 2005 levels. This is a problem for the Conservatives, unless they use a bit of commonsense and do not waste their resources in such seats where their chances are limited.
I know this is difficult for some posters to accept but it is all about getting the most effective end result.
120 Probably the most frightening 11 words in the English language,
“PRIME MINISTER Gordon Brown is to personally intervene in the crisis.”
125. The comments are good
Mark (07:44:26) :
I’m sure that everyone else will say the same thing, but I guess I’ve become a believer in Global Warming, so I think I’ll go to Copenhagen.
120. Scott P
Of course steelworkers jobs aren’t as important to Labour as extra bonuses for bankers.
You can 11/8 on a Conservative win in Middlesborough S at Ladbrokes.
- and now Australia’s records on climate change are suspicious….
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-email-mess-hits-australia-20091204-kb39.html
133. The house of cards is tumbling down….
131. SeanT will be recanting soon….
133 NZ has a problem too - and there are strange station locations in California [all near the coast and none in the mountains] and ditto Japan too.
There are also 500+ major cities included in the rising temperature graphs despite assurances that they’d be removed as Urban Heat Islands which would prejudice the results…
132. I might just throw a few quid at Shadsy on that basis.
Of course, we should also not forget Mandy personally intervening in the Cadbury row today. Maybe the workers should nip round the corner and ask the guys at LDV how well that worked for them
133/4. I’d be rather more impressed if it wasn’t just yet more of the carefully selected “East Anjeela” stuff.
Mandelson wades in to Cadbury takeover battle
Lord Mandelson, business secretary, on Friday issued a blunt warning to Kraft and hedge fund investors that they will face “huge opposition” from the British government if a takeover of Cadbury is used as a means to make “a fast buck”.
The comments represent a government intervention that is unprecedented in recent years, extending the business minister’s policy of “industrial activism” into a live bidding situation.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d64220dc-e0dd-11de-9f58-00144feab49a,dwp_uuid=e8477cc4-c820-11db-b0dc-000b5df10621.html
This confirms what I have been saying repeatedly that going onto marginal right wing issues is a mistake as it would scare off these floating voters. Conservatives must stick to mainstream issues and caring issues - health, jobs, schools etc. The mainstream issues also include law & order where there is scope for stronger practical policies and messages. Addressing mainstream issues doesn’t mean being wishy washy in the centre, it means having clear and practical measures for the cluster of issues most people are interested in. It also means having a coherent approach to what those messages mean and where Conservatives would take the UK.
137 - I suppose you think the Tories would convert the plant into an Elephant Lamp factory.
Anyone hoping for England vs North Korea?
141 tim - No, but for thirty years Labour and its apologists have been unfairly blaming Thatcher for job losses in the eighties, so it’s only reasonable to reverse the favour.
142 No, Portugal -v- North Korea. The People’s Country was robbed back in ‘66….
142. Heh - imagine Scargill vs Monbiot - pink on red - would be great viewing.
132. richard. PP have better odds.
143 - Some of the blame was unfair, and some fair.
Particularly the devastation of exporting industries by the level of the pound.
A trick Lawson pulled off again within a decade.
128-And indeed desirable.
Unhappily not the bits that we should embrace.
141 … tumbleweed rolls across screen ….
Is Ed Milliband leading a cult?
Lawson’s comments are aimed at Cameron as much as anyone else, but he is not ‘denying’ the science, though I am sure he’s sceptical, and rightly so. Like David Davis, Lawson challenges the political approach inspired by the Prophet Stern, which will endanger global growth and condemn billions in the developing world to a slow and grinding death in poverty. Ed Miliband’s “saboteur” jibe proves what Fraser says in this week’s magazine: climate change has morphed from debate to catechism. It is now an issue bereft of rationality. A debate on policy, not science, is an immediate necessity - I fear all Copenhagen will amount to is a joyless shindig.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5600608/saboteur-or-realist.thtml
I’m very sorry to see people taking cheap shots at Tim Yeo upthread.
I’ll tell you this much - during the Foot & Mouth crisis of 2001 Tim Yeo was the only politician to show any real understanding of the major issues and the only one to ask the right questions of the government on behalf of the British people. It was refreshing to see a politician with understanding of his brief.
(I speak as someone with an agriculture degree who had only recently left the farming industry at the time of the crisis.)
151 - I’ve always rather liked Tim Yeo, not least because he never tried to make capital about an opponent’s personal life, even before his own dirty laundry was dragged through the newspapers. He is my mother’s MP, and she is both a devout Tory and a devout member of the URC. I have no idea how she resolves this in the ballot box.
Fascinating! The economic argument for CO2 reduction is eerily similar to the economic argument for the bank bailouts.
It has become the new consensus, apparently bought into by “everyone,” that if the U.K. government had not bailed out the banks to the extent that it did then, Britain would now be in the Great Depression II. But many of the same people who trumpet this as the new orthodoxy were equally fervent believers in the old orthodoxy (which was that there would be no need for a new orthodoxy because most economic problems had apparently been solved).
…
It is an interesting thought. What if bust banks had gone to the wall and instead of bailouts there had been an immediate 5 pence reduction in income tax, a substantial reworking of thresholds and big cuts on taxes on business. Would the result have been any worse than the current deep recession? It would have taken political nerves of steel to implement such a policy. But Andrew Lilico thinks the bailouts weren’t just an economic mistake, he says they represented a moral failure.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/04/what-if-the-banks-hadnt-been-bailed-out/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
Thought for the day.
c2000 employeees of Chorus on Teeside with probable annual costs of c£100 million are set to lose their jobs.
Directors at RBS want to pay in addition to salaries,a one off bonus of £1 billion,in company which was doing so well that the tax payer had to save them from bankruptcy.This amount is 10 times the cost of the Chorus figure above.
Well you maysay this is the free market at work.If so one can only conclude that the main features of free market capitalism are greed and selfishness.
25 Richard Nabavi. I suggest you are mis-reading the figures, which say nothing about Brown’s popularity. The LibDems always split roughly down the middle, many cannot stomach a Conservative victory as we know from this site.Continued support for Labour under Brown assumes they will sort out the leadership issue if they remain in government and that the LibDems would do a deal with Labour along these lines in a hung parliament.We have no idea what the LibDems would do, regardless of anything Clegg says.
Benedict Brogan’s Telegraph blog - New Labour RIP
Benedict Brogan has really started to strongly attack the government in his recent articles.
Sorry if this has been posted before:
Photographers and anti-terrorism: The holiday snaps that could get you arrested
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/philipjohnston/6724053/Photographers-and-anti-terrorism-The-holiday-snaps-that-could-get-you-arrested.html?
On topic, I read nothing into these figures for the reasons that tim gave. The sample is just too small.
Almost one million Scots are unable to read and write properly
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6943751.ece
Why am I not surprised?
O/T
Bercow - Mad Nad gives her verdict.
According to the Commons’ most authoritative source on laughing stocks, the Speaker’s wife through her interview with the popular press has….
“reduced the Speaker and his office to a laughing stock”.
She added “How can we ask people to trust us, when the man who holds us to account has such poor judgment he allowed his wife to give such an appalling, self-obsessed interview?”
Can the boys and girls wrack their brains searching for a Home Counties MP who might occasionally have given more than one appalling self-obsessed interview? think of Home Counties MPs.
Good Tory position though: “..allow his wife….” Must keep them firmly under control at all times, like dogs, those oestrogen-ridden monsters!!!
Does anyone know when the next ICM is coming out?
161. chris burley: Does anyone know when the next ICM is coming out?
Probably.
104.
““The Non-Dom in the Condom””
It must be a special characteristic of a successful politician to be one of the few people on this planet whose facial features are improved by covering tight with stretched latex.
154 - Well you maysay this is the free market at work.If so one can only conclude that the main features of free market capitalism are greed and selfishness.
Have you never heard of Adam Smith’s invisible hand?….
“Every individual…generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. ”
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest”
159. “Why am I not surprised?”
Probably because it’s roughly in line with the position in the rest of the UK?
97.
“I plan to divide my efforts based on whether I need to be near to my club, my estate or my mistress at the time, ”
Of course if you were an international golfer you might end up being clubbed in your Estate over your mistress(es)?
THIS might get an outing at PMQs
The authorities were aware, in 2005, that “the existing legislative framework would not be sufficient in a crisis.” That’s the famous tripartite framework that was introduced with much fanfare in 1997, by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer. Yet they don’t seem to have done all that much about fixing it until after Northern Rock. Why?
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/12/04/authorities-knew-in-2005-that-tripartite-regulation-wouldnt-work/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
159 - they talk oddly too
165
The issue relates to all that money poured into education, and what has it achieved?
Little snippet about Climategate. The son of a work colleague was at UEA a few years ago, he told my colleague that one of his lecturers admitted that he was sceptical about AGW but he wasn’t prepared to admit this in public as he would be shouted down and disowned.
So much for freedom of ideas!
On previous climate topic and trying to pull a few things together.
1. Corus has to pay a huge bill to buy carbon “credits” which really damages their international competitiveness.
2. DECC has handed out £700K to an organisation called Carbon Dioxide Information Network (COIN) in order for them to “inform” industrial workers on the need for carbon reductions. (see Bishop Hill blog). COIN is run by the guy who used to snarl up the courts with ayslum seeker endless legal aid appeals against deportation. Guess he can now brief these workers that at least they are helping the world by being out of a job instead of writing articles in the Guardian (how many real workers read that I wonder?).
3. Bishop Hill is a website based in Scotland. It majors on climategate. However otherwise there is a total lock down in the Scottish mainstream media on climategate. I think that’s because the Scottish government plans to make us a world leader in “green” energy? Whats the betting Stuart D’s pretty keen on all things AGW? Where do you think Scottish public opinion will be on this one mid next year Stuart?
157. Scarface
Noted with interest, thanks.
169. Annabel Goldie and David Mundell. I know, it’s not a great advertisement, but luckily Other Scottish Politicians Are Available.
169. I did try to reply to that tedious jibe, but unfortunately it disappeared into the ether twice. Suffice to say it was a corker.
159, Brown, at least, can read and write. If only he could do sums…
I wonder whether Alistair Darling or George Osborne will take any notice of this paper?
I am sure Gordon Brown will latch onto it regarding “way too early to slash government spending” and cause David Cameron some embarrasment.
Quote
A steep increase in VAT is the best way to tackle the Budget deficit, according to the Oxford University Business School, but only in 2012.
In a paper addressed to the pre Budget report the centre said it was too early to slash government spending or instigate major increases in taxation.
“The economy is currently too fragile to implement spending cuts or tax rises immediately. The costs of harming any economic recovery exceed those of delaying a reduction of the deficit, especially if there is a credible strategy for reducing the deficit over the longer term.”
174 - “Brown, at least, can read and write”
The writing bit is debatable!
176. I wouldn’t put money on “listening” either.
176.
There are Labour MPs called ‘Reid’ and ‘Wright’?
GideO can do sums, when it comes to personal finance at least, he is ‘Flippin’ amazing.
England in group C
USA
USA
England-USA!
not the easiest team in group 2…
Lol - MC asked Charlize Theron if she remembered 1950. And he was doing so well
Brazil-North Korea I wonder who will be favorite?
North Korea have the past results in their favour, I think.
They haven’t really given Charlize the most exciting job.
185 - That depends on whether our beloved leader has sorted out the delivery system on the ballistic missiles in time for the tournament.
186, got a better way of using her, alex?
Ivory Coast in Brazil’s group, will be interesting!
Avoided Drogba
Algeria with England
by John R December 4th, 2009 at 5:40 pm “Almost one million Scots are unable to read and write properly. Why am I not surprised?”
Well we all know one Scot who cannot write properly.
Algeria - very good draw to balance tougher draw of USA.
Algeria - nice draw
YES Algeria are shite
188 - Well they could have let her read out the teams!
189 - That will be a great game; a highlight of the group stages (of course, that means it will be a dour nil-nil probably).
Cameron in Afghanistan:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1233282/Cameron-plays-casual-makes-surprise-visit-Afghanistan.html
Nice pics.
Switzerland please.
Avoided France
I think Group A proves it wasn’t a fixed draw
Avoided France
60,
Timothy (likes zebras),
Valid point, but on the principle of finding out whether the interlocutor is informed or preaching from ignorance, it works well. I did make sure to emphasise the “best” part of the question - and if someone came back with your answer, I’d know that they are informed. It still looks a good range of values, for the balance of the issue you cite, which are, as you say, beyond the scope of the IPCC report.
If people come up with melodramatic excesses (I’ve had someone ask me, when choosing to move house to a location that isn’t on a flood plain, not subject to excesses of weather or coastal erosion (or even close to the coast at all) “It’s only 6 metres above sea level - will that be enough with global warming?”. ), then they should be challenged.
My stance is that there is climate change ongoing (as always), that it is probably exacerbated by human activities, that use of carbon should follow a Pigouvian tax to avoid the tragedy of the commons (which, according to Stern et al, I believe, should be set at pretty much where it already is, but with air travel I’d move to a “per flight” basis, with seperate “short”, “medium” and “long” tariffs set at appropriate levels, with reductions available to airliners which improve their efficiencies/reduce their emissions ), that technological solutions should be encouraged by Governments. Rather than “attempting to pick winners”, I would (if I were in power) offer X-Prize-like incentives at around 9-figure levels for things like very-low-power high quality industrial lighting and home lighting, affordable and practical fuel cells for cars, simple yet safe regulatory regimes for nuclear power construction, all followed up by a 5-year exemption to appropriate taxation for companies exploiting these technologies - essentially encouraging the “B”, “1″ and “T” aspects of the SRES.
I’d also like to see the practicality of accelerating the construction of ITER or an ITER-like system.
I’d plan to replace power generation and transmission systems with low-carbon replacements as and when they expire (bearing in mind the limitations of wind and solar power, I’d expect nuclear to be used for much of the base load), and do what I could to encourage effective insulation and power storage systems.
Also, accept that there will be some climactic impact regardless of what we do and minimise building in low-lying coastal areas and flood plains and ensure that there are plans to migrate any people and essential businesses slowly away from such areas.
Done properly, it could:
- Wean us off of excessive dependancy on potentially highly unstable fossil-fuel producing regimes
- Minimise any human affects on the environment
- Preserve fossil fuels as long as possible (I agree with those who say “oil is too valuable to burn”)
- Conserve all aspects of the environment to a good degree
- Minimise the negative social and economic impacts on us whilst doing all of the above - indeed, possibly producing postive economic benefits (those technology winners could be very lucrative).
All of that is fairly knee-jerk and not at all fully baked, and I could well be wrong with some of the details, but that’s pretty much my current views on the subject. Apologies to all for the length of the post - it just kept going …
France with SA, Mexico and Uruguay.
Hope they get stuffed!
Slovenia. Great draw.
Slovenia
Slovenia for England, decent draw!
204 - That means the hosts have the same draw as the hosts did in 1966!
AWESOME draw.
We couldn’t have got much better really.
A South Africa-France opening game would be the reverse of the 1998 opening game
With Brown off the scene, England can look forward to a Judas touch free World Cup
210 - Opening game is SA-Mexico
198 - Nice black power salute in photo 4 Dave.
Almost as convincing as the Henman fist pump.
175 - “The economy is currently too fragile to implement spending cuts or tax rises immediately. The costs of harming any economic recovery exceed those of delaying a reduction of the deficit, especially if there is a credible strategy for reducing the deficit over the longer term.”
Is the boy Osborne prepared to roll the dice and risk a double dip recession?
Wow, group of death G
Portugal with Brazil and Ivory Coast!
Tasty or what?!
wow Brazil/ Ivory Coast/Portugal, nice group
215, hahahaha. I hope Portugal get crushed.
Brazil have it tough. The advantage to the two teams who get out of that group will be up to match speed.
Glad it is not us though!
Not up on the routine. If we win or come second in the group stages, do we go into a predetermined match, or do they do a second draw?
215- Poor North Korea…
214/215 - Bit annoying for Brazil - they must have been laughing when North Korea came out. And I’m guessing there won’t be a very extensive highlights package shown in Pyongyang now.
219 - Play the winner/second from Germany’s group.
219- it’s predetermined
We play a team from Group D in ROund 2.
The whole draw is predetermined now. You can plan the route through. We have a team from the Group of death to lose to on pens in the QF as far as I can tell first glance.
213. “The Bank of England Governor has issued his harshest rebuke yet to Gordon Brown, suggesting that the Prime Minister’s plans to cut Britain’s budget deficit do not go far enough.”
“In comments which are likely to infuriate Mr Brown, Mervyn King said that the next Government would need to “eliminate a large part of the structural deficit” over one parliamentary term alone.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6645067/Mervyn-King-criticises-Gordon-Brown-over-budget-deficit.html
220 - At least Kim’s team will get battered in every game hopefully.
#175 Wonder why you didn’t link the main article?
From the same article:
The centre casts doubt on government forecasts for the the economy returning to 3.25% growth and said that “under less optimistic and probably more realistic scenarios, the targets will be met only by cutting the real level of spending, or by raising taxes. The centres estimates tax rises of cuts in spending of around 3% of GDP are needed by 2012.
http://www.financialdirector.co.uk/accountancyage/news/2254430/tax-centre-calls-vat-hike-fill
[Never underestimate the power of Google]
Only problem for England is whether they would have liked one tough game. Could get caught cold in the second round.
224- “We play a team from Group D in ROund 2.”
Don’t tempt fate…
Interesting that the Daily Mail have the Cameron photos from Afghanistan. Is it an exclusive deal?
If so, what have Wapping got to say about it? Calling David Roe.
““…Richard North demonstrates in this fascinating analysis. Using what he calls a Tiger Woods Index (TWI), he compares the amount of interest being shown by internet users (as shown by the number of general web pages on Google) and compares it with the number of news reports recorded. The ratio indicates what people are really interested in, as opposed to what the MSM thinks they ought to be interested in.”
God that man is an idiot, he’s comparing proper names with a construct used by a minority of people. Of course he’s going to get the result that he wants. Look at the ‘climate change’ number and you can see that the interest is similar.
God save us from dangerously naive fools like North…
228- alex
USA are not bad. Actually they beat Spain last summer in the Confederations Cup
Cheers for the replies.
230 - Its a Press Association/Boden production.
“Bernanke obviously hates what Gordon Brown did because it shows an example of how it could be done to the Federal Reserve and the Chairman himself. That’s why he outrageously attacked a foreign leader, when Bernanke has been clueless and ineffective during most of the crisis.”
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2009/12/04/ben-bernanke-lectures-gordon-brown-and-britain-in-hopes-of-maintaining-status-quo-at-federal-reserve/
125. I would have thought global warming alarmists would be the perfect target market for prostitutes.
Unlike proper scientists, they aren’t held in any affection or esteem by people at large. This sense of inferiority and non-worth, coupled with their poor social skills and innate dislike of people, makes them just about perfect clients for hookers.
Others - Labour supporters, for example - exhibit the same deficiencies, but they don’t have what wh0res call “climate scientist money”.
Talk is cheap, but money talks.
213 & 234 TIMBOT, you’re losing your touch, missing out on a golden opportunity to slag off the soldiers pictured as well. We know how much you detest the armed forces - just like Brown.
230 - David is modelling the Boden brown lambswool v neck, ideal for the desert.
http://www.boden.co.uk/en-GB/Mens-Knitwear/Jumpers/MK067/Mens-Lambswool-V-neck.html#nav
225 Gosh an independent BoE, wonder how that happened?
Bad draw for England - 3 easy games will raise the jingoism to fever pitch only to lose in penalties to the Germans in round two.
Coorrr, what a top notch source, the principle writer is Matthew Paulson,
“teaches undergraduate web development and software development courses at Dakota State University. He holds a bachelors of science in Computer Sciences and is pursing a Masters of Science in Information Systems”
Not seeing a lot of financial and banking qualification or experience there.
238 tim
Thanks. But is it necessary to gloss your posts? This is a socially aware blogsite.
225. “Mr King admitted, however, that although the budget cuts should be significant, their size should depend on the wider economy starting to recover from the recession.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6645067/Mervyn-King-criticises-Gordon-Brown-over-budget-deficit.html
168. They do talk funny, yes. It looks like hard work speaking with a Scotch accent. You need to be pulling faces all the time to make the grunts come out right.
I’m not surprised they can’t read or write. It’s bad enough trying to write English when you’re a proper Englishman. Trying to write a word like “word”, when you think it’s pronounced “wurrrrrdd”, must be a pain.
241 - It is kind of like listening to a guy who took 10 years to complete a PhD in Labour Party history on world economic matters….oh wait…
242 - I love Daves “brown lambswool power salute”.
I think I shall by some Boden gear, go to Soccer City in Soweto and copy his pose in June.
239. Shame about the FSA and the Treasury. BoE independence wasn’t a bad idea, but Gordon’s tripartite regulation is a total failure.
Peter Lilley was right.
“The NAO estimate that taxpayers are underwriting liabilities exceeding £850bn and, buried in the document, is the revelation that the FSA and the Treasury gave RBS “a clean bill of health” in October 2008, days before the bank nearly collapsed.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5598833/collective-failure-exposed.thtml
You couldn’t make it up.
Ah, equality. All animals are equal:
http://www.arrse.co.uk/Forums/viewtopic/t=139495.html
Anyway, I’m off for a while.
England should be bloody well laughing. The 2nd round will be tricky (but no-one very scary) and only France and Argentina might stop them getting to the semis - both of whom have serious management problems. Spain Brazil and Italy are a long way away.
I think I saw Phil Woolas in York today. Hard to say it was him, without an alarmingly foxy middle-aged woman badgering him about Gurkhas.
247. You couldn’t make it up.
Why not? CRU did
I saw Simon Heffer a few hours ago at Piccadilly Circus tube.
He is amazingly ginger.
246 tim, go for it. Remember to post some photographs from the hospital.
161 re next ICM.If polling follows pattern of Novemneber then there should be an ICM poll in the sunday Telgraph this weekend.Last ICM Sunday Tel was Con 42,Lab 25,Lib 21.
246 tim
No need to buy from Boden. Borrow Dave’s. By June of next year he will only be wearing suits.
230 - according to the beeb, Toenails is out there with him.
252 John R
Are you sure it wasn’t Cupid?
Anthony Seldon:
“Blair took the country to war because he believed it was the right thing to do. He still believes he was right. Early next year he will explain his decisions before the Chilcot Inquiry. Don’t expect regret, introspection or second-guessing. For a man who once said he was “ready to meet my Maker”, meeting with Sir John Chilcot will be a walk in the park.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/6728938/Is-Tony-Blair-a-war-criminal.html
Talking of looking like a tit in Afghanistan,
http://toryrascal.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/brown-machine-gun.jpg
First Mervyn King, now this. The nokias will be flying tonight..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5600933/bernanke-trashes-browns-tripartite-system.thtml
255 - He is certainly one scary lambwsool M-F
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/slideshow/ALeqM5glw5flypBh3NA0dnmaeG0jDJdomw?index=0&ned=uk
Give up already
Jonah’s just wished England good luck
Maybe Dave should have gone for this look instead,
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Observer/Pix/pictures/2009/5/14/1242322875674/Rory-Stewart-in-Kabul-002.jpg
Would the TimBot be happy then?
238. tim I have decided you are double bluffing. only the rural rich know their way round a boden catalogue that well.
i see liam fox is on the trip. A transparent ruse to justify his phone bills, you will agree.
262. I reckon it’s M&S, not Boden. Only because I have one exactly the same.
260 - “Now all I need do is wait for Purnell”
260 Oracle, OMG - he looks like two jags in that photo.
Even the Labour Party Members don’t tune into Gordo’s YouTube channel (or their own),
http://order-order.com/2009/12/04/guy-news-versus-labour-party-downing-street/
265 - “Don’t shoot until you can see the washing instructions on the lambswool”
265 - Liams phone bills were never anything to do with troop visits, although he’ll never face roaming charges.
260 I bet Brown was $hitting himself when he wasn’t forcing a grin for the camera. Do you think Sarah tied his shoelaces for him?
270. Those long distance calls to Ms Imbruglia don’t come cheap, tim.
260 Is that a real photo?
272 - Not to mention his imaginary friendship with Mother Teresa.
I’ll be honest, going out in pens to Germany in round 2 would be a huge improvement on Euro 2008.
261. If they are saying that now just think what they’ll say about Brown once he’s gone!
273 - As far as I know yes, I think I remember seeing it in the media at the time.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8396029.stm
263 Makes it very important that Jonah Brown is not PM by opening match in June.
A hung parliament with an election on June 6th could mean he hangs in there, trying to keep power, and thus imperils England’s chances in the World Cup - a Scots Revenge perghaps
277 (cont) The thing with Gordo photos, so many of them fit the “you couldn’t make them up” category, e.g.
http://bolditalic.com/quotulatiousness_archive/Brown_Swastika.jpg
And to think we pay Mrs Sion Simon to try and stop the media taking these kind of pictures. Must be a hard job though, when the grinning idiot won’t listen.
270 tim
Do you know if he took his own photographer?
re 279 Ted you can bet the house that the 6th June is one of the few days there absolutely won’t be an election next year. It’s a Sunday.
The curse of Jonah strikes again
“Gordon Brown has just decided to wade into Climategate.
He’s just released ths statement via the Downing Street press office:
“With only days to go before Copenhagen we mustn’t be distracted by the behind-the-times, anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics. We know the science. We know what we must do. We must now act.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100018945/gordon-brown-says-james-delingpole-and-the-climate-change-sceptics-are-flat-earthers/
Shame that ” Results 1 - 10 of about 31,500,000 for climategate. (0.28 seconds) ” appear to show show some people are interested in the controversy
Just to confirm Gordo machine gun picture,
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin/4660827/Gordon_Browndont_grin_near_machine_guns/
While I was searching for Gordo picture under “Brown Afghanistan gun”…this came up. Gave me a chuckle anyway.
http://tory-politico.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/gordon-brown-mr-bean.jpg
281 - I don’t know.
Perhaps theres a soundtrack.
“Dave, Dave, no, put your fist higher, no higher…higher, you look like Henman..higher.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/slideshow/ALeqM5glw5flypBh3NA0dnmaeG0jDJdomw?index=0&ned=uk
283 - This is, however, probably Brown’s best chance now of winning the next election. Howver you look at it, by destabilising Cameron and making very visible the sort of right wingery that has stopped a conservative government for decades, you are part of a group who are making it more likely that we will have another labour government.
Already, the Australian liberal party has imploded on this, are you sure you want to do the same for the UK?
282
excuse was I had just been reading Richard Todd’s obituary and looked up The Longest Day on Wiki so date was in my head
286 Tim you’ve posted that twice so far, you are going to p*ss off people accessing pb via a mobile phone. Once maybe, twice, yawn…
287
“283 - This is, however, probably Brown’s best chance now of winning the next election.”
Sorry. Delusional. Climate change is NOT an election issue apart from Greens and LDs..
290 - So, about 20 to 25% of the electorate?
165. James, A waste of time replying to that moron’s posts.
290 Agreed, unless the tax implications get traction as they did in Aus.
287- How right you are.
290 - The issue creates the split. It’s the MacGuffin and what Brown has been looking for.
Just look on here, the Cameron party and his supposed supporters are on different continents.
287 Eh? Cameron is ‘rightwingery’?
296 - No, the sort of people you are linking to are (the Delingpole’s of this world). You are, however unwittingly, Cameron’s electoral enemy.
266.”262. I reckon it’s M&S, not Boden. Only because I have one exactly the same.”
Andrew, I think you might be right. Why tim wants to show us the Boden catalogue instead is anyones guess.
283,
Great, Gordon. Demonise the opposite point of view with a simplistic and divisive attack. Too many politicians are like that. Overselling and overdramatising the issue and labelling disagreers as idiots.
Prats.
295 ukpaul
Stop fretting. When it comes to removing Brown even the most committed denier would be prepared to believe the moon’s a CO₂ balloon.
What rot, ukpaul.
Those unforced choice questions about which issues matter has climate wibble so far down people’s list of things to give a shit about it’s almost as irrelevant as Europe.
293. Ch4 News was entertaining on Climategate. The government scientist who had to justify the “your dog will drown” ad campaign, works at East Anglia University. Nice!
298 Christina
I think tim’s trying to get you to knit him an Arran.
If you are tempted, just make sure the sleeves can be coupled behind the back.
19 - “Any idea of the margins of error on this?
Probably quite large.”
Is that a straw being clutched at I see?
207 I disagree - we are helping to create an environment where AGW can be discussed in a sensible and rational way.
Anyone who calls those that disagree ‘deniers’ is suffering from an acute case of Godwin’s Law.
300 - That’s not who the focus is, it’s the opposite. Brown needs to get the liberal inclined centre back and this sort of thing is manna from heaven for him. Of course, he may well go overboard because he’s so grateful to be given an opening (see Andy Cooke above) but it’s got potential for him.
The Treasury refused to release extra funds for the reconstruction of Basra, the Iraq war inquiry has been told
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8396378.stm
I thought Cam looked very Prime Ministerial in Afghanistan on the news this evening.
308 - Probably why little TimBot is doing his nut over what jumper he is wearing.
301 - The fact that it is climate is neither here nor there, it’s the wedge issue, the way that Brown makes the right appear scary again. Europe was a damp squib as an issue because the right have buttoned it on the whole, can they do the same again?
309 Cameron was wearing a jumper? I know it’s pretty chilly in Afghanistan right now…
Did it have reindeer on it?
226 glw - Despite Gabble’s best attempts and selective quotes, it is clear from that article that Mervyn King is not leaving Brown any wriggle room.
I don’t recall any occasion when the Bank of England have been so unambiguous about laying out the viable parameters for government policy:
He said: “I think [the plan] has to be something where a really significant reduction in the deficit, the elimination of a large part of the structural deficit, takes place over the lifetime of a parliament, which is the period for which a government is elected. Beyond that is a statement of intent and hope rather than a plan for which someone can be held accountable.”
That must have been cleared with Darling, surely? It looks very much as though they are working together to stave off Brown’s delusions until such time as we have a responsible government in place.
If so, kudos to Darling - the only senior Labour minister whose reputation has increased since 2005.
Thought Cameron looked very natty in that flak jacket, Anderson and Sheppard perhaps? Fox looked a total arse in his of course.
Farage looking like a shoo-in for Buckingham.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bercows-position-far-from-safe-1834446.html
Nick Robinson on Afghanistan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2009/12/kabul_afghanist.html
291
antifrank
“290 - So, about 20 to 25% of the electorate?”
And all the REAL believers - passionately committed - would probably never vote Conservative in their lives .
Copenhagen and Miliband are a farce. The UK has to close lots of old coal fired power stations by 2017 to meet EC rule on emissions. There are no replacements ordered.
UK is either going to go dark 2017 OR we will NEVE R meet CO2 emissions targets for 2020.
As I said before, politicians say lots on CO2. In the UK the Government has failed totally on electricity generation. A 20% CO2 cut by 2020 is unachievable. Miliband talks of 30% +. He is deluded. And a complete idiot. It is not physically possible.
The Government are lying or living in la-la land or both.
298 - Clothes by M&S?
Clenched fist salute by Laura Ashley.
Quoted on fifa.com: “The moment you consider a group easy, every match becomes difficult,” said Italy coach Marcello Lippi.
Take note PBers, especially those who think the USA game will be a walk in the park…
309
he is trying to wind people up, scroll past.
298 - inverse snobbery ?
If god had wanted the most important scientific investigation since WWII to be carried out at a university which opened for business in 1963 under the motto (I am not joking, unless the website I found is a spoof) “Do Different”, and is too ashamed of its geographical location to name itself after the city it is in, would he have given us Cambridge? Not meaning to sound judgmental or snobbish, of course.
306 ukpaul
OK, but every opportunity Cameron gets to slap down the dissenting right is a gift. The more he slaps, the more his green and centrist credentials are confirmed and advertised. He can even differentiate himself from Brown on AGW by cutting out the pleading and spin and disassociating himself from political activism masquerading as science.
310 Makes the right look scary??!?
The AGW Thermageddonists aren’t exactly the last word in shrinking media violets.
Spookily contemporary, I have been reading this book, which is highly recommended
Best Seat in the House: The Wit and Parliamentary Chronicles of Frank Johnson
http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1906779333/
I am at the point of Thatcher’s election campaign. As part of the first televised election, she campaigned at a factory. Cadbury’s, in the (then) marginal constituency of Birmingham Selly Oak.
I wonder if Khaooomooooreeeosnfhgtiurlfmcwq will follow suit?
313. Good article on the Bercow’s. The are obnoxious headline seekers but I think she’s gone way too far this week. And they appear to be troughers too. I think Farage will go close possibly very close to unseating Bercow. If he does, I shall raise a glass.
303&318.Seth&Kristin
Its a landslide for Farage.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/04/john-bercow-guide-understanding-women
Re 323. Sorry for the typos but the Bercows make me mad.
“OK, but every opportunity Cameron gets to slap down the dissenting right is a gift. ”
Can he do that without losing votes to UKIP? I would hope not but he’s got to be careful on both flanks. I suppose this is why so many people see the election as not a done deal, there is potential for leakage in two directions now. I’m not sure what hie best way of dealing with this is.
Re Tim Yeo. It mustn’t be forgotten that he fathered the official portraitist of David Cameron
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/11/david-camerons-first-official-portrait.html
And a fine job he made of it too. The pose is slightly too male model for my taste but not something that’ll worry many people.
Talking of progeny it was a great pleasure to see a film directed by the daughter of Ridley Scott niece of Tony Scott and brother of director Jake Scott. What’s more she made a fine job of it.
It struck me that there are few businesses where there are more families in the same industry. Fathers and sons are the most common-from grips to directors-and a Scottish family has ten and all doing well.
If it happened in politics people would ask questions.
SCHISM!!!
Earlier…
Church leaders across the world have united in advocating the “moral imperative” for effective action to counter global warming in Copenhagen.
The Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams will preach in Westminster tomorrow at a service led by 16 senior churchmen from throughout the UK.
Now…
A group of evangelicals, comprised of scientists, economists and theologians, called the mainstream view of pending catastrophe caused by climate change a “hoax” at an event Thursday just days ahead of a key U.N.-sponsored climate change conference in Copenhagen.
The evangelical scholars argued that science, contrary to what many leading scientists claim, does not support the claim that increased CO2 in the atmosphere is having a negative effect on the earth. Rather, no one currently really understands clearly how the earth is responding to the increase in the greenhouse gas, they say.
http://www.dakotavoice.com/2009/12/evangelical-scientists-speak-out-on-global-warming-hoax/
read as far as 115 and seems the Labour boys a little upset about something.
Here is something else for you, bet this makes PMQ nest time
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6728665/Ben-Bernanke-says-Gordon-Brown-hurt-Britains-ability-to-resolve-banking-crisis.html
“Britain was ill-prepared to deal with the banking crisis in the wake of decisions made by Gordon Brown when he was chancellor, the head of the American Federal Reserve has said.”
Sat it aint so……
Hopefully, Cameron’s visit will mark the end to the tory campaign of undermining the UK’s Afghan strategy.
It’s about time they got behind the soldiers and their support networks at home. For far too long the tories have put party political point scoring ahead of the unity of purpose a country needs to show its frontline troops.
If it holds, the Taliban may even be forced into having to produce their own propaganda.
331. Oh piss off, Gabble. You’re going beyond parody.
130 - Personally I would be terrified by the thought of “5 more years”
139 - I was wondering if he was upset with the Americans as they had pointed out that Gordo was far from an economic genius.
“no more boom and bust”
331 - Nurse, the screens!
330. Bernanke on the money there. International consensus is very much that Brown’s ‘reforms’ were a disaster.
Oh god Quentin Letts is on HIGNFY. At least Muckguire shut his gob for the whole time, can’t see Letts being so quiet.
331 - what you mean pointing out the lack of equipment / helicopters, whilst your hero kept them short? I don’t know how you can sleep at night. Men have died because of the lack of adequate equipment, and the public know it. Shame on you.
312. “If so, kudos to Darling - the only senior Labour minister whose reputation has increased since 2005.”
Totally agree, I would buy the man a pint. I may not agree with everything he’s done but I do believe he’s done his best to reign in Brown’s worst instincts.
339. Don’t overdo it. It has been the broader financial establishment, especially senior Treasury civil servants, that have done that. Darling has just been the message boy.
331. Gabble
Did you have fun at the ‘Victory to Argentina’ rallies?
My grandson is an American, and my son should have his US citizenship by June so with no Scottish team there, I’ll obviously support the USA.
My son just emailed to say that the USA have an easy group, but he didn’t provide details.
341 runnymede - Nonetheless, think of the alternative.. Ed Balls.
The most interesting statistic to emerge from this YouGov poll is the fact that after the horror story of Brown’s Premiership, on a nationwide basis a clear majority of those LibDems expressing an opinion would prefer a Labour Government led by Brown, rather than a Conservative Government led by Cameron.
Are you reading this seanT?
332 A disgraceful post Gabble, utterly disgraceful, but it doesnt suprise me, this from you, a supporter of the Govt that has starved the forces of resources for years.
World cup draw brilliant.
9 points then thru to 2nd round
Part of the Camo/Becky double dream!!!!!!
Whilst OGH was preaching moral rigour to Robert in the manner of Polonius to Laertes, do you think he was secretly reading “The John Bercow Guide to Understanding Women”?
There is a whiff of inside information or brilliant foresight in his aggressive betting position on Farage in Buckingham.
Did C4 news cover Cameron’s trip to Afghanistan tonight?
343. oldnat.
USA should qualify for the second round easily, certainly.
My post which says it is for 331 is now obviously for 332 (even if the numbers again you could probably spot it
)
345. PfP
More to the point are the Conservative leadership reading it.
Four years of pandering to guardianistas doesn’t seem to have progressed the Conservative cause much does it.
332 lets ban gabble now!
Gabbles post is nasty and totally unfounded. It belittles him even more than normal. Mind you he is joining Tim in Brown’s Labour bunker. They don’t debate in a rational and thoughtful way. They just spew out spin, smears and slogans evry few minutes.
346. MTF: “…starved the forces of resources for years.”
Factually untrue but you don’t care, do you?
Still, saves the Taliban from having to say it.
‘Hopefully, Cameron’s visit will mark the end to the tory campaign of undermining the UK’s Afghan strategy’.
I don’t think that’s unfair comment. I don’t see anything wrong with the Tories doing that-it’s what oppositions do. I’m sure the Taliban haven’t heard of David Cameron (lucky people) so no harm done.
340. glw “Totally agree, I would buy the man a pint. “
Remember, he is barred from many pubs
Anyone about who watched C4 news tonight?
349. ChristinaD. No
348 Seth - OTOH Farage has had the occasional colourful incident splashed over the press.
345 - pfp - and in the marginals the situation is reversed.
359.ScottP, I find that quite amazing to be honest. So a visit to Afghanistan by the leader of the opposition didn’t even merit a mention in dispatches, but the Conservative selection result in the seat that made duck houses famous did. Poor show from C4 news.
Roger and gabble will be under house arrest by the time the world cup is on
344. I suppose it’s arguably a good thing that the Chancellor is a malleable character rather than a swivel-eyed lunatic, yes.
355
Beneath contempt Gabble, so like Labour to lie through their back teeth.
199 - nice pics Gabbs, he looks like a pm doesn’t he?
Unlike the pm at present who not only does not look the part he cannot act the part either.
Sorry to butt in boys, but I reckon that gabble wasn’t far wrong when he said that Cameron (and Clegg come to think of it) should start supporting the lads out in Afghanistan instead of constant sniping. The labour government has had a hugely difficult task out there, as would a Tory or Lib Dem administration, and it needs all its support it can get from all parties.With a bit of luck we can get this job done, but everyone needs to get onside. We don’t want the Taliban to think we are divided.
352 Richard - well, the Tories, by whatever means have established a clear poll lead over recent years, but they are still very much on their own, whilst the LibDem concensus is still in bed with Labour. Taking account of the truly shocking record of this Government in all manner of ways, it will forever be thus, which was the point I was making. The Tories should therefore forget all about any notion of a LibDem coalition since it just aint going to happen and concentrate instead on an outright win.
363 Ave it
Unlike most Welsh people I hope England win the world cup and I will be rooting for them.
However I also hope that Watford go into administration and Cardiff get to the premier league.
362 - If you’re waiting for the film of Dave in his flak jacket, I’m sure “Robofop” will becoming to a screen near you soon.
Gabble has form on this sort of thing, about 18 months ago when someone linked to a thread on the ARRSE website that was scathing of Brown he dismissed the site as having been infiltrated by Al-Qaeda.
How typically New Labour!
The Taliban might have heard of you Roger after your splendid efforts in undermining troop morale with your denigrating of the grieving families of their victims.
366.Excuse me, are you accusing the Conservatives and the Libdems of not supporting our troops in Afghanistan because they had the temerity to hold the government to account?
I heard an ex military man on radio 4 or 5 say that all the squabbling about Afghanistan was debillitating for the troops. He waqsn’t talking about the Tories specifically more about public opinion though this division is driven by politicians.. Imagine a football team where backroom fights about tactics were going on all the time. Not a recipe for success.
366. valleyboy: Cameron (and Clegg come to think of it) should start supporting the lads out in Afghanistan instead of constant sniping.
That’s a false dichotomy. Cameron and Clegg can (and do) support the troops whuilst pointing out just how badly Brown has screwed them over.
whats this?
“The NAO estimate that taxpayers are underwriting liabilities exceeding £850bn and, buried in the document, is the revelation that the FSA and the Treasury gave RBS “a clean bill of health” in October 2008, days before the bank nearly collapsed.”
no wonder tim wants to witter on about sweaters.
how the hell did they get a clean bill of health?
368 Is that really the case? - that most Welsh people would de unhappy to see England win the World Cup? Quite incredible.
360 Richard
True and Farage is no moral paragon whatever the revelations in the Press. But he does have the advantage of being the anti-establishment outsider: his transgressions will be more easily overlooked than those of Bercow.
I’m not yet with OGH on Farage winning in Buckingham but the gap is certainly closing.
260 actually thats one of the better ones.
I like the ones where his trousers are tucked inside his socks
classy
375. Floater.
Obviously working your way through the thread, have you made it this far yet?
Authorities Knew in 2005 That Tripartite Regulation Wouldn’t Work
Enjoy!
376 Why? Wales is a separate footballing country. There’s no more reason for the Welsh to support England than to support North Korea.
I stand by what I said. I certainly wouldn’t want Clegg or Cameron by my side in the trenches.I know who’d be over the top first,poor, ignorant, valley boy.
371. Time to move on fr. My views aren’t worth obsessing about. But I’ll try to fit in better and be more sanctionious
377 “I’m not yet with OGH on Farage winning in Buckingham but the gap is certainly closing.”
Citation please - after Bercow’s very impressive start as Speaker, I would think the reverse to be the case in fact.
366. “the lads out in Afghanistan” indeed. You are meant to refer to them as Our Brave Boys. Do you know nothing?
376
I am certain what I said was true, but I also think that reverse would probably be true. We are different people in many ways, but given that most welsh people support English premier league teams, it does smack of hypocricy.
270 - you seem to be a little out of sorts today tim.
Must have been that 20 hours of posting yesterday.
Have an early night tonight, why not stop posting at say 1:30 ?
378 Farage was caught with a Latvian Pole dancer.
Maybe that’s what gave Hague the idea.
Evening all
I’m less optimistic about the World Cup draw than some on here it would seem. Granted, we should win our group but the group with the Germans is very hard to call and we have to play the second-place team in round 2.
Apart from Australia, I think perhaps Germany would be the easiest option and either Serbia or Ghana would be potentially tricky matches.
Anyway, more on-topic, I’m not too surprised. As I recall however, the YouGov northern marginals poll didn’t show a slump in the meagre LD showing and the swing was more or less direct from Labour to the Conservatives.
381 A truly incredible comment - you should be ashamed of yourself.
Peston..
“For Lloyds’ shareholders, the NAO’s disclosure is another bitter pill.
If they weren’t asking it already - which of course they have been - Lloyds’ shareholders will today ask why their board agreed to pay a penny for a bank, HBOS, which was apparently just hours from being banned from doing any new business.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/12/how_hbos_escaped_closure.html
369 yes all about the friendly support from wales
Watford could end up in the league of wales and cardiff wouldnt get in the premier league
Wales =
“Farage was caught with a Latvian Pole dancer”
Does that make him ‘a slapper’ Seth?
When we win the world cup next year wales should be pleased - cos the majority party there will be the same as here!
390 In what way? Granted, North Korea is an extreme example, but there is no reason why the Welsh should support the English team in preference to any of the others in the WC.
We try to maintain the fiction that the UK is 4 different footballing nations… to support each other when in international competitions is tantamount to agreeing with those who want our fight to have four different footballing nations removed.
Gordon Brown tonight led a chorus of condemnation against “flat-earth” climate change sceptics who have tried to derail the Copenhagen summit by casting doubt on the evidence for global warming….Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader, said it would be disastrous for the planet if sceptics were able to undermine support for a climate change deal. “Ideological dinosaurs, whether in Saudi Arabia or in the Conservative party, who deny climate change must not be allowed to hide behind some leaked correspondence to support their outdated theories,” Clegg said….. tonight the shadow climate change secretary, Greg Clark, made clear the party line remains that climate change is a serious man-made threat. “Research into climate change has involved thousands of different scientists, pursuing many separate lines of independent inquiry over many years. The case for a global deal is still strong and in many aspects, such as the daily destruction of the Earth’s rainforests, desperately urgent,” he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/04/flat-earth-climate-change-copenhagen
Come on Climate boys (or old men), lets have a Tory split.
Scrap Scrap Scrap Scrap
I was listening to sports talk radio here, and amidst the prognostications of the weekend’s football games (both college and NFL), there was the immortal line at the very end “the world cup groups have been announced and the US is in a group with England”. That was it, and on to the latest on Tiger. They didn’t even know for sure what country the finals were in.
If you are not a soccer fan (and I’m afraid I’m not) this is a great country to live in
395 i want us to keep it separate - ok england qualify every time and once every 20 years scotland get through for a larf!
In Euro 2016 its 24 teams tho - still not enough for wales and NI LOL
395
That should have been “our right to have four different footballing nations”
By the way, does anyone know how to get Google Chrome to remember my nickname and email address? It is so much better than Internet Explorer in every other way…
tim = algeria
Just catching up - Cameron does look absurd in his clenched-fist pose in front of a group of real soldiers - reminds me of Dukakis’s attempt to look fierce driving a tank. It’s as bad as his hug-a-husky moment.
Had the day off, playing for the Commons vs Lords bridge team - we won. My partner John Hemming (LibDem Yardley) and I never have time to play normally, but we think on similar lines…in bridge, anyway…
valleyboy, I shall be voting for Ryan Giggs in SPOTY, if you could arrange a mass campaign in the valleys I’d appreciate it.
401 yes all about the LDS and Lab ganging up together!
220 seats between you next time wont be enough to squeeze us out of the government benches
Is John Hemming looking forward to the wealth tax next week?
401 Hardly worse that Gordo in front of a machine gun, Nick. You are getting more partisan by the day, all the semi- even-handed posts you used to contribute seem to have gone out of the window… It seems to have changed about the time of Conservatives for Palmer nonsense. it must be because…time is running out…
402 tim, i’m voting jessica ennis - its a much better call…
401 - I can’t work out what he was trying to do.
Was he singing Nkosi Sikeleli Africa?
Had he lost his black leather glove?
Is he going to torch downtown Witney when he gets home?
Stick it to the Man, Dave
405 All about the sexy Ennis!
All that heptathloning was for me, Jessica and Dyed - 7 ways to ecstacy
401 Nick P - At least the troops listening to Cameron are smiling and clearly enjoying his speech, unlike these ones:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/gallery/2009/apr/27/gordon-brown-afghanistan
402
Sadly Giggs has never been fully appreciated in the Land of Song, in fact I expect a certain resentment amongst certain sections of the community.So do not expect mass voting in his favour from the valleys.
IIRC Gordon Brown’s claims are that he wanted to improve regulation but as mere CoE in UK couldn’t do it as it need to be agreed globally. However he also claimed that his model was one that rest of world was increasingly adopting (Britain leading the way).
Now on one hand we have Sarkozy (and others in EU) wanting to deal with the failure of the UK & US regulatory regimes (the Anglo Saxon model) with a new EU one and on the other Bernanke saying Gordon’s model was one to be avoided at all costs.
The UK is having to spend vastly more than other major countries (except Iceland & Ireland, both of which are not exactly big economies)on bank stabilisation which tends to support what EU and USA have to say, though from differing viewpoints.
Nobody wants to follow Gordon, shame.
402. tim: I shall be voting for Ryan Giggs in SPOTY
On what grounds?
Don’t think belloumi is playing now…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iutfn37mSlI&feature=PlayList&p=5A7CAEFFA1E9466D&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=46
Anyone watching prizefighter?
I’ve gone for Mr Rees which is hardly a top tip call as he looks on papre the class of the field. Has anyone gone for a more interesting pick?
Sad little tim (396)
Now we know for certain that man made climate change is cr@p after Jonah tells anyone opposing it is flat earth ish
What a complete chump
408.Richard, talk about standing out from the crowd and your surroundings in a war zone.
I am not into football at all and dread the thought of the World Cup hysteria that lies ahead.What does strike me as a bit bizarre , however, is that whils the component parts of the UK could potentially have had four teams qualify, the same is not true in respect of other countries such as Germany and Italy. Why is there not a separate team from Bavaria , Westphalia or Saxony - or indeed from Tuscany and Lombardy? It seems more than a little inconsistent to say the least.
406. flying a kite on a length of invisibly thin fishing line.
416. justin: Why is there not a separate team from Bavaria , Westphalia or Saxony - or indeed from Tuscany and Lombardy?
History. The first international match was Scotland v England.
New thread - UKIP responds to the Buckingham debate
351 - I had worked that out ukpaul, but thanks for posting the clarification anyway
384 PfP
377 “I’m not yet with OGH on Farage winning in Buckingham but the gap is certainly closing.”
Citation please
Private poll
[204] - I could agree with a lot of that, I might quibble about the details.
I envisage having similar discussions in 2019 about what we could do; it’s unlikely that anything radical will be done until the oil has begin to run out.
@coldstone
We are hoping to make some inroads at Adur Council next May and, by rights, we should be able to take Adur Council back for the Liberal Democrats soon. The majority looks insurmountable, but that’s not because the area’s overwhelmingly Conservative and the foundations are there to be eroded.