Could a climate change split undermine Dave’s chances?
December 2nd, 2009
How dangerous is the issue for the Tories?
Only days before the Copenhagen climate summit Andrew Grice in the Independent is reporting what’s said to be growing split between many parts of the Tory party and its leadership on the issue.
It will be recalled that just four years ago one of Cameron’s first acts as leader was to take a lead on climate change as part of his effort to try to modernise his party and there was that highly publicised trip with the huskies.
Now with all the focus on the coming summit doubters in his party are coming to the fore and even his former leadership rival, David Davis, is questioning the wisdom of imposing too tough a regime of targets.
He’s quoted as saying: “… “The ferocious determination to impose hair-shirt policies on the public – taxes on holiday flights, or covering our beautiful countryside with wind turbines that look like props from War of the Worlds – is bound to cause a reaction in any democratic country.”
I just wonder how damaging it would be for the party in this crucial election run-up period it is seen to be divided on the issue. My sense is that Cameron has judged the public mood rightly and it would be highly dangerous electorally to take any other position. But the more dissident voices there are the more it raises the question as to whether he has really changed his party.
Cameron was always going to be vulnerable to the charge that while he might be following a modernising agenda his party is only going along as far as it necessary to win back power.
The next five months are going to be the toughest of Dave’s life.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Any split is dangerous. They should be avoided.
I totally disagree with the last sentence in the article. Opposition cannot be as hard as being PM. His decisions will cost lives then. That must be more pressure than trying to beat Gordon Brown in an election.
355.Evening,
Could someone with greater poll knowledge than the Tory Tavern landlord provide some brief info? The landlord doesn’t remember anything about the 1992 election - his age was still in single figures! What sort of poll ratings were the main parties getting at this point in the electoral cycle (autumn/winter 1991)? Were Labour regularly ahead - hence the surprise when the Tories eventually won? And if so, how far ahead were they? Or was it always looking to be heading for a hung parliament?
The reason the landlord asks is that he is pondering a theory that Labour might just come back and steal the election next year. This hypothesis would be backed to an extent if there had been a similar reversal of fortunes less than a couple of decades ago.
Anyone fancy sharing their knowledge? The landlord would be most grateful.
Looks like David Davis has ramped up his campaign to get back into the Cabinet before the next GE. Its almost worth it to see who blinks first, this is just the latest issue that Davis has used to try and garner a headline criticising the Tory leadership. And he got luck in the Indy with climate change. Going to be interesting to see how it all goes down with the party this near a GE, I suspect that his increasingly desperate efforts to be noticed will backfire. Time will tell.
3 - Mr Tavern…
Feast on some pork scratchings whilst supping a pint and relaxing with your figures…
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
Our take on the Fiona Hyslop story.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2754181/Fiona-Hyslop-is-sacked-as-Education-Secretary.html
With a short piece on Mike Russell.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2754184/Ups-and-downs-of-new-man-Mike-Russell.html
Now, forgive me if I am wrong, but did Mike Russell not used to have a fine beard? I think he looked younger then. Though I guess he would have been
re 3 see here
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
But be warned - this was from the era when the polls were unreformed and there was what many regarded as a systemic bias towards Labour.
3 Tory Tavern. Here is graphic for you:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
3.Tip, Major vs Kinnock, Brown vis Cameron.
3. My recollection of autumn 1991 is that Labour and the Tories were locked at roughly a 40/40 split, which remained the case until polling day - although Labour were slightly ahead in more polls than the Tories, so the average was perhaps a 1% Labour lead. There was of course a massive Tory deficit throughout 1990 until they defenestrated Thatcher.
The other point to make of course is that the polling methodology was almost certainly wrong! The assumption seems to be that an average Labour lead of 1% probably in reality meant a 3% Tory lead, which means there was a late swing to the Tories of about 2% on polling day itself.
These things are one of the great dichotomies of British politics. Time after time the public say they want independent minded politicians. They then get one, the media scream “Split” and the party looses support/power. Something is wrong here…
I’ve had a look at what Davies had to say. I don’t think it’s a split, it actually fits into the practical meme that Cameron has been pushing. I know the media will chase this up, but speaking for the healthy sceptic is not a bad thing. After all he believes in it to about 80%. That’s my feeling. It’s probably true, it does us no harm to move away from fossil fuels (you never know we might get some new roads built when we do)…
6 David
Which schools are struggling, and what is your evidence?
3 - Good evening. We have our own swingback experts here. But the hypothesis is broadly incorrect in that from the time John Major took over from Mrs Thatcher, the two parties were pretty even. No-one had a very big lead in the last 18 months of the Parliament. There was a big last-minute move to the Tories caused by Labour’s poor campaign and the media being pretty much all anti-Kinnock.
The Tory Tavern landlord is very grateful for all your help. He offers you all a (virtual) pint on the house.
It isn’t all bad news for the Conservatives if major debates are conducted within their ranks while other parties look on. That’s what relevance is all about.
Strangely, the trouble or saving of Cameron might have nothing to do with him whatsoever.
Australia will prove to be a very interesting petri dish - and you can bet that David Davis will have at least one beady eye on the polls there.
12 - She failed according to the targets set by the SNP in their manifesto.
Making specific pledges means you can be measured agains them, like it or not.
climate scepticism, climate warming denial and facts on what happens naturally need to be discussed properly. scientists with an agenda are not always correct.
the UEA emails, (my old uni for my post grad and left wing even then), show that anything outside a sdanitised version is nota cceptable.
in oz there has been no mention of any querying on global warming results.
the opoosition liberals here (read tories) just sacked their leader after a spill and put in a harder line chap who is anti abortion but wil allow it to continue, anti climate change (said it was “CRAP”), and anti immigration without valid visas.
whethe he wins over the female vote we will see. a rhodes scholar and a boxer and trained as a priest. clever but can roll with the punches. anddswims miles each week and strongly supports aboriginals here, giving up his free time to teach religion in the outback. so do not try to sterotype him as he is outside the box.
what it means is that it is a divisive issue and one that can spoil an opposition. cameron like abbot’s predecessor here in oz agreed to do what the government said even if he did not fully agree with it, rather like the stand on the EU. that was electorally not a smart thing to do and the local party members and mp’s said enough is enough, we need to stand by what we want and our voters want.
maybe cameron can learn from that; sitting on the fence may stop you falling, but you need to get off the fence sometime so you might as well get off quickly and make your point of view known because you are seen as more of the same.
the veneer of the tories being as one was tested by the eu but with climatological issues which hit jobs and introduce additional taxes to people there is concern. why should WE pay when people in india and china pay nothing for their emission increases, and continue to expand their emissions albeit only at a 5% growth rate instead of the 10% they were doing before.
Unless Brown suddenly becomes a full-blown ‘climate change denier’ to create one of his fabled ‘dividing lines with the Tories’ I can’t see the big deal. Some in the left-wing media are getting carried away with talk of hung parliaments and are being distracted with politics. Labour need to keep it very simple: Cameron and Ozzy are corrupt and intend to doctor the British tax system to benefit themselves and their friends in Notting Hill. That’s the only strategy in town now from now until the election, as Brown himself has realized. Labour mustn’t get blown off course by airy fairy policy debates.
Obama about twenty five minutes into his speech on Afghanistan at US Military Academy, West Point, New York.
6.Thanks for the link David.
17 David Roe
But your paper made a charge in your article that “The under-fire minister was dumped from her job amid growing criticism over struggling schools.”
I know it’s only the Sun and accurate journalism isn’t your forte, but presumably you are able to justify your own paper’s statement.
A couple of the cadets listening to Obama seemed to be falling asleep… shouldn’t they be more disciplined than that
22 - I take it you have read the reaction from the opposition MSPs? I’d say that was criticism.
22 - Oldnat. Why has Salmond sacked her rather than defending her if she’s not failing in any way?
I know you’re just wanting to slag off The Sun, but presumably you are able ti justify attacking it for reporting the same things as the rest of the media.
23.We had 30-40 soldiers hauled into the public gallery to listen to Gordon Brown’s speech on Afghanistan on Monday. I hear that the Democrats are helping Labour out with their election campaign, I took that move as a sign of things to come.
I think wibbler is right to reference Australia but ultimately this may help Cameron keep people in line. For those not up on politics down under, the Liberal Party (roughly equivalent to the Conservatives in UK terms) have unseated their leader, Malcom Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 and elected Tony Abbott.
The real issue in this election was climate change and what response to make to the Labour Party’s bill in the Senate (where the Liberal Party has a blocking position). Turnbull favoured engagement and passing a climate change bill along the lines proposed by Labour. Abbott is a sceptic and will oppose it - query whether he will get all the Liberal members of the Senate to fall in behind him.
Although complicated by Christmas holidays, the likely result is a double dissolution of parliament with Kevin Rudd, the Labour leader taking the issue to the polls. Current polling suggests that the Labour party would win that election comfortably and if the Liberals remain split, it is hard to see them turning that around. That said, Australia is a country which relies heavily on carbon-producing commodities (more so than any other developed nation) so there is definitely some scope for spooking the electorate about loss of jobs/competitiveness etc.
Nonetheless, my money would be on Rudd winning the election on the back of a Copenhagen deal, the Liberals suffering and perhaps unseating Abbott immediately after the election for having led them to defeat…..
I doubt this is a scenario which appeals to many Conservatives and, I would say, UK public opinion is generally more “green” than Australia given the different mix of industries.
Well the Australian Senate has blocked Rudd’s plan. Could this lead to a snap election?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8389909.stm
“My sense is that Cameron has judged the public mood rightly and it would be highly dangerous electorally to take any other position.”
I don’t see where that comes from. As I recall polling shows the British public either not believing in Global Warming, or not thinking it’s the end of the world.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8389896.stm
Interesting development in the free news access debate.
I still think the existence of the BBC website makes it difficult for news sites to charge successfully.
An Oz climate change election would be really interesting - lots of eyes from elsewhere on it too, I’d think.
I think DD’s motive is straightforward - he knows Cameron won’t let him back, so he’s opting for the fallback-if-Daved-fails position: not lunatically right-wing, just enough to profit if Dave’s apparent centrism falls out of favour.
I’ve just read Davis’s article having read Grice. If you cross reference what Davis said it actually reflects much of the Tory parties actual environmental policies and thinking. The Indy is trying to make more of an issue of this than there really is. The Tory policies so far announced also generally tend to be more to do with incentive and enabling rather than fining, banning and regulating. Davis is also right to highlight that often many superficially attractive green policies often come at a cost that outweighs the benefit. Cameron and Osborne have both made this point in different ways in the past. So in answer to the main question the thread poses the answer is no!
I just don’t agree with most people on wind turbines. I think they look a darn sight better than the coal-fired power station that I can see in the distance out of my window.
I think the idea of being able to generate all our power simply from things like wind, waves and the sun is genuinely amazing and we should be trying to bring it into being as soon as possible.
Then we won’t have to rely on buying oil from mediaeval countries that I won’t mention.
33 - Wales?
I think it must be getting late. I read oil as coal and even that wouldn’t make sense
David Roe
Ooh! Opposition MSPs criticise a Cabinet Secretary. Shock. Horror.
Yes I think the Sun is a really crap paper - in common with other tabloids, but I raise the issue with you, because you quoted your paper’s story on this blog, and you have signally failed to provide any justification for your paper’s attack on Scottish schools.
I suspect that is probably largely out of ignorance of Scottish education on your part, but it’s your claim, so you need to justify it, accept that the story is wrong in that regard, or crawl away.
Your choice.
29 - Re: British public’s attitude to Global Warming.
Global warming is not our fault, say most voters in Times poll
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6916648.ece
FT article referencing two other polls - “Public scepticism takes the steam out of debate”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/95ca3398-a710-11de-bd14-00144feabdc0.html
On climate policy the key thing for me is this: You had better be damned sure you know what’s what before making huge decisions that could permanently wreck your economy.
The AGW supporters are aiming ultimately for a world where all nations produce carbon dioxide at a rate proportional to their population – we would all be at around average. And that average would be way lower than today. It is tantamount to leaving fossil fuels behind. Great in theory. In reality – hmm…where’s the energy going to come from? The hardships of living in a warmer world may be a lot less than the hardships associated with trying to turn the clock back on technology and living standards. Pre-industrial levels of energy demand can only be possible with pre-industrial population densities – or a massive change in the way we use energy.
We must either significantly depopulate the earth or we must carry on using large amounts of energy. Nobody seems to be openly calling for mass culls so we are heading towards a world where we must do what we can to harness energy in a ‘greener’ way. But it seems it is the same crowd who vehemently oppose building nuclear power stations or filling the countryside with wind farms. They oppose incinerating waste to generate electricity. They would oppose turning the Severn estuary into a tidal lagoon. There is no acceptable answer apparently. And the schemes they do like are not viable on the enormous scale needed to power an advanced economy (any power solution not at the Gigawatt scale is basically a waste of time). For example Englander at 33 is directionally correct but I suspect has no concept of the scale and intrusiveness that ‘green’ solutions would need to feed the UK’s power needs.
Anyone looking for a really good scientific view of energy demand and potential green answers could do no better than to start at David Mackay’s Withouthotair site:
http://www.withouthotair.com/
There is no realistic alternative to continued heavy use of fossil fuels until we can deliver something better – and that will take decades.
Personally I worry a lot more about the world basically running out of affordable energy than I do about AGW.
The whole AGW debate MUST become open. There is now such distrust in the data, the models, the scientists, the IPCC, etc – we risk throwing away our material well being on a whim (and a whim that may not even be correct). ‘Trust me’ is not good enough.
36 - Alex Salmond either believes the opposition have a point or he’s weak.
The teacher and class numbers suggest the former.
Oh and this.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2009/11/27103833
TO be fair to Fiona Hyslop she seems to have taken a hospital pass with the manifesto pledges. Maybe Alex should have admitted that rather than throwing her to the wolves.
39 David Roe
Sorry. You’re trying to shift the question. I’m asking you to justify your paper’s suggestion that Scottish schools are struggling. Fiona Hyslop’s demotion is a separate issue, which I’m happy to discuss once you have provided any justification for your paper’s attack on Scottish schools, or when you accept that it was an ignorant and ill-informed statement by your journalist.
It’s not that difficult for anyone who knows about Scottish education, so let me repeat my original query to you - “Which schools are struggling, and what is your evidence?”
Thousands of schoolchildren are in classrooms which have been condemned.
I linked above the to the Scottish Government’s own summary which suggests the pupil per teacher figure is rising despite the SNP manifesto pledge.
Did you see any of the Cosla findings last week?
I don’t see how I can discuss anything with you. I choose to be open about who I am but clearly it makes what I say attributable. I don’t accept your argument regarding The Sun, but it sounds like, unless I say something stupid that would get me in trouble, and that I don’t believe, you won’t engage.
So it sounds like this conversation is over, sadly.
I’ve tried to provide answers, I don’t see what else you want. So far you’ve provided nothing but an attack on me and my employer.
http://news.scotsman.com/scottishlabourparty/Crumbling-schools-crisis-hits-Salmond.5846740.jp
…and the one technology that would be truly gamechanging on the energy front is nuclear fusion. There is enough deuterium in seawater to power mankind on a massively increased use of energy for billions of years – without emitting CO2. One day I suspect it will be pretty much the whole answer as virtually free electricity is used to heat homes and water, power vehicles, etc.
Fusion energy has been described as: ‘Sunshine in a box. Unfortunately we don’t know how to build the box yet’.
But we’re getting there. Nearly all the press discussion on fusion concentrates on the huge state funded programs such as CERN and their enormous toroidal / tokamak containment technologies. The Large Hadron Collider was in the news only this week (although its focus is more on particle research than practical fusion power R&D).
Beetling away almost unobserved in the background is the privately funded Polywell programme. Polywell containment is literally a box (each face of the cube houses an annular electromagnetic loop to hold a plasma in the centre of the cube). They are up to Polywell 6 now I believe, have go ahead funding for Polywell 7, and the team thinks it is less than 10 years away from ‘ignition’ on a practical / non-experimental scale (for the non-initiated ‘ignition’ means you get more power out than you had to put in to run the containment field – ie true power generation). It seems also to be inherently safe (the deuterium is fed in very slowly as a gas – if the containment fails the plasma collapses and it just switches off).
Would it not be better for mankind if a big chunk of the money and resources we devote to climate change were instead directed to pushing fusion power technologies? If the Manhattan project can go from a patch of desert to a working bomb in under 3 years then I think we can deliver a workable fusion design in 10.
42 David Roe
Your journalist attacked Scottish schools. That was stupid. I don’t really expect you to publicly accept that (earning a living is rather important!
). However, I trust that you now understand just why your journalist was so wrong. I’m happy to leave it there.
44 - That would be amazing.
45 - I implied nothing of the sort but I concur that leaving it is probably best.
Whilst virtually all the fixed odds markets have been nudged slightly but perceptively in Labour’s favour over the past 2-3 weeks, Sporting’s GE seats market has not - indeed its last move was towards the Tories. The current spread showing them winning 355-360 seats, implying an overall majority of around 65 seats, which looks too high. Any further loss of support in the polls could see their spread dip by 10-15 seats pdq, thereby catching up with the general market sentiment, whilst there appears to be little or no upside for Tory sests over the short term - therefore suggesting a possible betting opportunity?
At these levels, the Tories are being expected to gain a net 156 seats - even allowing for approximately 10 of these to result from boundary changes, but still an enormous ask, especially should the LibDems win 20% or more of the vote, thereby holding the vast majority of their existing seats.
For the first time since Spreadfair closed up shop a year ago, there appears to be some real value in the GE seats markets, which have been almost moribund for the past 6 months.
It would be interesting to hear Mike’s take on this.
44 Small errata. Polywell is privately delivered but funded mostly by the US Navy.
47 David Roe
“I implied nothing of the sort” Of course you didn’t!
Frankly, I don’t know exactly what a sub-editor does and whether you have any influence over stories, or whether the Scottish Sun actually wants to have an anti-Labour spin.
But you may want to know that in the (rather stupid) bidding war over class sizes in 2007 between the parties in Scotland, the Labour proposal was by far the most expensive. The LDs had the most sensible policy of having Primary school classes capped at 25 - which is what Fiona Hyslop brought in legislation for. The Tories wanted to leave it up to local initiative. The SNP proposed a maximum class size of 18 in the Infant years only. Labour, however, proposed reducing the size of all Primary school classes “below the OECD average.” The OECD average was 21.4.
50 - That is interesting.
Do you think that the suggestion that the Scottish Government was seemingly suggesting taking on the councils was what Alex Salmond wanted to avoid by losing Hyslop?
51 David Roe
I think exactly that! Fiona Hyslop was reacting angrily, but she was undermining the huge progress made in the Concordat by making that suggestion of taking power in such decisions back to the centre.
As soon as I saw that, I thought she would have to go. At the same time Mike Russell deserved promotion so the move was a no-brainer.
The timing was obviously provoked by the LD’s suggestion of a no-confidence motion in her. Alex Salmond is a wily tactician and any minority government has to gauge mood very carefully.
David Roe
i presume you have also seen this about English education?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article6939885.ece
Five minute interview with Peter Lilley on Global Warming.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100018542/peter-lilley-on-climategate-scientists-would-rather-change-facts-than-their-theories/
53 - I fail to see how standards in schools can be raised when children’s behaviour is so bad.
It puts many people off teaching and money is not the be all and end all. That is Labour’s biggest failing idealogically. Public money does not change anything if the system is broken.
For too long, the NHS in particular suffered as it was a leaky bucket and pouring more into a leaky bucket will still raise the water level but not by as much as if you also fill the holes.
On topic, Dave can slap these people down and get to look simultaneously decisive and caring doing it. Assuming he does, it will do him no hard at all.
Anyway. It is late and I need to get home.
Have a great morning everyone.
55 David Roe
“I fail to see how standards in schools can be raised when children’s behaviour is so bad.”
What a strange comment! I presume that you don’t really mean that all children’s behaviour is bad?
Children are a product of the adult society in which they grow up. The media must carry some responsibility for the culture of that adult society. Are you happy that the Sun is setting an example for good behaviour - or simply trying to make cash by pandering to the lowest common denominator?
I see the grauniad leading on electoral reform. GB at his naked politicking best. Trying to outfox the Tories as usual, but on something even lower down the food chain than nearly any other topic.
Some excerpts:
Ministers are to introduce paving legislation within months to ensure a referendum by October 2011 on replacing the first-past-the-post system with the Alternative Vote (AV) system. = is it really the most important issue there is to waste parliamentary time in this way?
Make David Cameron look like a defender of the status quo. The Tories, who are opposed to abolishing the first-past-the-post system, would have to introduce fresh legislation to block the referendum if they win the election. = GB at his best, or worst.
Is this saying Labour admit they will never win alone again? Or, is it another floater to gauge the public mood. Haven’t had a chance to read the other papers yet, but was at bottom of UK news page…
Ipsos MORI Scotland have now released the detailed datasheets from their Public Opinion Monitor November 2009. This is only the 2nd Monitor in what is clearly designed to be new quarterly series. Ipsos MORI’s business plan seems to be to try to sell bits and pieces of the findings to different clients, however this monthe they failed to sell the topline v.i. findings (the Sunday Times Scotland bought the Ind Ref findings).
Note: the fieldwork was back in 19-23 November, not long after the Glasgow NE by-election boost for Labour. Sample size: 1,009.
So, here we now have the v.i. topline voting intentions (+/- change from Ipsos MORI August Monitor):
Westminster v.i.
SNP 34% (+1)
Lab 32% (+5)
Con 15% (-3)
LD 12% (-2)
oth 6% (-2)
So, the Lab boost seems to be coming straight from ‘The Big Squeeze’ of the minor parties, and not from straight SNP switchers (although obviously there is always “churn” which is not revealed by the headline figures).
A very, very satisfying survey for us SNP supporters.
But this is absolutely horrendous news for Annabel Goldie and Tavish Scott. How on earth can the Tories unseat Jim Murphy (East Renfrewshire) and Alistair Darling (Edinburgh SW) on appaling figures like this? The usual excuse trotted out is that the Tories are doing extraordinarily well in the seats they need to do well in, but the longer this “sub-20%” patch continues I am starting to have serious doubts about just where UK GE 2010 is going to end up for the Scottish Tories. A car crash?
Ipsos MORI have a very interesting table here. Note especially where the SNP Westminster poll numbers were in the period immediately prior to the UK GE 2005: 13%. At that election the SNP achieved 17.7%, up 4.7 points on MORI’s poll numbers.
If you add 4.7 points to the SNP’s Nov09 34% you are getting very close to 40% for UK GE 2010. Not even I am mad enough to think that that is going to happen, or anywhere near it, but oh what fun it is to dream!
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2523
Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings (satisfied minus dissatisfied) - change shown is from August’s Ipsos MORI Monitor:
Alex Salmond +4 (-14)
Gordon Brown -8 (+6)
David Cameron -11 (-9)
So, although Labour and Gordon Brown have had a good few weeks, Gordon Brown is still unpopular in Scotland, although at least he has overtaken David Cameron.
These are the poorest approval ratings for Alex Salmond since he became First Minster. But as they say in sport (I paraphrase): if you can still win when you are having a bad day then that is the sign of a true champion.
All Unionists ought to be worried by Cameron’s poor rating among Scots voters. It is a straw in the wind of the constitutional storm about to hit the British state when PM Dave enters 10 Downing Street.
The stock market has risen by 66% in nine months.
It has never done that before throughout history.
This fact alone (caused by the quantitative easing programme where GBP 200 billion is released to fund the buyng of securities and fend off the depression until after the election) is enough to explain the slight recovery in Brown’s electoral standing.
All other topics, Europe, Global Cooling are mere fashion statements alongside the one of money. Cameron cannot do anything about QE but wait and see if the worldwide speculation it has caused might topple before May.
Sorry - icebergs was it? Irrelevant. We are negotiating potentially the largest financial crash since 1929 and nothing else is even remotely going to match that amongst peoples’ concerns.
Financial Times: ‘Brown’s true but little known heir’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fad50d46-de18-11de-b8e2-00144feabdc0.html
63 I contend that energy policy will outrank money as a topic - but only from the day after the lights go out. Until then we’re frogboiling. But sooner rather than later the government (of whichever party) is going to have to build some bloody power stations and do it fast.
‘Veteran Tory MP to step down at general election next year’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6940111.ece
Jennie Lee!?! Now there is a blast from the past! Crikey, her roots go way, way, way back to Maxton (biographer = no less than Gordon Brown MP!), the Independent Labour Party, Red Clydeside, the Scottish Home Rule movement, jeepers creepers - a whole slice of Scottish social and political history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennie_Lee,_Baroness_Lee_of_Asheridge
Peter the Punter @ 3.29am. That is perhaps the most important post of the week.
For the first time in a long time I woke up to the order of the day, which was *to find creative ways to get with Labour*. This is not a full-scale panic but just a nudge.
I gave Spread betting the sack and have closed off all my positions and that’s that. However, your post is enough to make one come out of retirement. Labour are pregnant yet again and ICM is the midwife. Will it be a bouncing baby boy, a lovely baby girl or will it be stillborn ?
The obvious port of call is to Mr.Victor Chandler. Give him a bloody nose ! He sent me that ‘Dear John’ letter in 2004.
62. Stuart Dickson. Following on from my closed Spread positions, they all involve a good showing from NATS+OTHERS.
I am not happy.There is mighty scepticism abroad regarding SNP Seats at Westminster. Last traded price was 10.0.
Do I need to panic ?
Could “Dave´s” chances be underminded by climate change questions?
Most certainly “Yes”. (I know we are supposed to answer “No”.)
Mr Cameron has been incredibly lucky as a Leader of the Opposition, managiing to protray himself as the “Not-Brown” candidate. Until now, nothing more was needed. Now, suddenly, his policies are starting to be examined, and they are seen to be not only light, but also contradictory.
As somebody mentioned above, Cameron has got away with blue murder, promoting progressive policies (which he himself may or may not believe in), but this does not mean that these policies are those of the Conservative Party as a whole.
So far, the polling evidence is that Mr Cameron is a nice man (ie, says nice things), but who knows about the Conservative Party that wants to come into power.
65. I thought Ed Miliband had just ordered up a few nuke power stations on the qt. But yes, reality crashing in on the frog-boiling in whatever form it comes, will end this phoney phase of politics, and start the Great Rebellion, which will terminate the EU in its wake. People should not lose hope just because the enemy got Lisbon ratified. They will soon be dismantled limb from limb, once the real situation of the economy is no longer able to be hidden.
61. So those figures are from the full-scale Mori poll Stuart, ie. not merely the Scottish subsample from a UK-wide poll? If so, the fact that the SNP are ahead for Westminster is truly extraordinary. So much for Labour’s post-Glasgow NE ‘bounce’ in Scotland. And, yes, at the risk at incurring more wrath from SallyC, I’ll say it again - this is another blow to Mike’s theory that Labour’s vote is holding up better in Scotland, and this time a severe one. Has to be said, because it’s true.
another europhile rat leaving the sinking ship….just in time.
66
LibDems take Labour’s bone….
‘The Liberal Democrats want a fully proportional system, but senior party sources suggested that they would back the alternative vote as a “small step in the right direction”.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6939951.ece
69 EM just spoke alot of words about power stations - which is precisely what Labour have done on energy for a decade now. We will know they are serious and realise how very dangerous the UK’s electricity capacity is when they OK the life extension of an existing coal station or build a new coal one in a hurry.
In summary we are just 6 six years away from lights out in the UK and the approval / build / commission cycle for power stations is not measured in days, weeks or months even. It really hacks me off how little this is debated or discussed. Does anyone have confidence in the government being to respond if we did start to suffer prolonged and widespread brownouts? What about trip-over failures which would see the whole country with no power for a day? (that happened to a big chunk of Brazil a week ago).
In the business world we rank risks according to importance and to urgency. This is a hugely important risk for the UK but not one that has been urgent. As the days and weeks go by with nothing built it is also becoming urgent.
Having followed the link the answer to my own question is yes, that is indeed a full-scale Scottish poll. So URW at 67 can stop panicking for the time being - on those figures the SNP would be heading for very considerable gains at the general election.
73. In that case the Lib Dems are either fools, or have sold out (most probably the latter given that AV would benefit them). As far as progress towards PR is concerned, AV is a total blind alley.
Thanks,James Kelly.I was really surprised to be able to Buy SNP Seats at 11.0 and even more surprised to see them Sold at 10.0.
Someone is making a technical error and it sure ain’t me !
I never make technical errors.
I’ve just had a look at Have Your Say on the BBC site. As most, I’m sure, know, it’s normally the home of people screaming about NuLabour and how they want an election and all the rest of it, but this one, on Call me Dave’s Health & Safety speech is curiously different.
While there are the usual recycled myths about safety glasses and conkers and the like, most posters seem to be defending H&S and saying Cameron’s got it wrong in calling for reform.
Cock-up by Cameron in appearing to support weakening employees rights or conspiracy by Labour to damage Cameron?
Just a thought.
How did the pub evening go?
48 - Yes it does.
SPIN have gout roughly 41-28-20 factored into their seats levels.
A move to 39-28-22 drops Tory seat levels from 355 to 330.
That looks pretty likely to me and a 10 drop on the seats market looks pretty likely.
39 - 29 - 21 drops it further.
URW has a point, I think the next ICM will be important, but its unlikely to push the Tory seats up.
Hung Parliament manoeuvres in Northern Ireland…
Donaldson: “very real possibility” of hung parliament
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/hung-parliament–lsquowould-not-affect-justice-transfer-stancersquo-14582839.html
On Topic,
Yes its dangerous for Dave.
I follow politics avidly and to be honest can’t work out what much of Conservative policy is, or even direction of travel at the moment.
The dangerous thing for Dave with climate change is
a.Splits, obviously damaging.
b.People tie it to the posh argument, as is perfectly possible.
Playing with huskies, wind turbines in Notting Hill and model farms.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/lizhunt/6706831/Zac-Goldsmith-gives-the-upper-classes-a-bad-name.html
So having bought into Cameron as a means to power, the Conservative Party in realising that Cameron actually believes in this stuff is rebelling against his un-Conservative policies in fear that he might actually win power and implement them. Blair proved that a leader could lie to his party and win power to do things the party disagree with. Looks like Cameron will be proof that the Tories are actually the unreformed right-wing zealots we said they were.
Marvellous!
79 tim . I think the way to go is to pick off VC in the range 225-299 if you can get on.
Did you take my tip to Sell Ryan Giggs at 5.4 ?
Complete the following well-known phrase or saying:
Kinnock is to Blair as
Cameron is to ……..
Right now, what Dave C or Dave D thinks isn’t as relevant as the news [developing] that the Director of the University of East Anglia Climate Change Unit, Dr Phil Jones, is ’stepping down’.
Remember that the UEA’s first response to the leaks was to call in the police to investigate. Not the local plod but Scotland Yard. My local intelligence is suggesting that it seems that there’s no evidence of a crime having been committed, which is a tad awkward for the UEA… and global warming enthusiasts in general. No crime? Better blame Jones then.
If the Australian Government is failing over the issue, it’s rather ironic that the whole global warming/climate change hypothesis, which I seem to remember used to revolve around the notion that the fluttering of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could cause 12″ of rain in Cumbria, has indeed come true. Some half-truths in Norwich have lead to political Armageddon in Canberra, which will now reverberate back to Copenhagen within 7 days.
It’s not just the climate that is an inherently unstable chaotic system. Politics is too and The Indy is trying a bit too hard to create a ‘dividing line’ just when the issue of climate is becoming turbulent again.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
83 - I prfer a straight sell at the moment, given my other positions.
I did take your tip thanks, got out at just above that level and have a very nice free bet on Giggs now.
80. I looked up RodCrosby’s Belfast Telegraph reference. And quote
“However, the Ulster Unionists hit back saying their electoral arrangement with the Tories offers the best prospect for influencing a Government and as the partner party, they will be “at the heart” of a Tory administration.
Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/hung-parliament–lsquowould-not-affect-justice-transfer-stancersquo-14582839.html#ixzz0YVotwSWH”
Might be in the UU’s interests, but is that alliance really in Dave’s? I would have thought the idea of ANYONE from Ulster politics being at the heart of a Westminster administration was worth a couple of points to someone else. In this case, of course, LibDem, Labour or possibly both
87. There is nowhere more uniformly anti-EU than Northern Ireland. Whether it’s Sinn Fein, DUP or UU, they are all into EU withdrawal. It kinda brings them all together having a common enemy.
It seems to me that when Cameron Senior decided David should go into Tory politics-stockbroking no longer attracting the right sort-he didn’t realize his son would meet Steve Hilton and go pink.
I think Dave is struggling. He leads a party which a part of him is repelled by. The same happened to Bercow when he came under the influence of his wife but without the complications of Dave’s ’selective’ breeding he was able to deal with it.
It happened to a friend of mine who went from city gent to middle aged Rastafarian on the hippy trail. They both have the same character and were easily led (witness the Bullingdon club). Probably the best thing that’s happened to either of them.
88. 15 out of 17 N.I. MPs could be relied upon to back an IN/OUT referendum. Only SDLP are europhile I believe. That’s why the place is never mentioned by the BBC.
Effective Spreads.
LAB 207-210
CON 355-357
LD 52-53
Labour Seat Bands
225-249 VC. 5-1
250-274 VC 12-1
275-299 VC 20-1
300-324 VC 28-1
Pick&Mix with Victor Chandler and thank me later !
David Davis appears to have decided that he can become leader if he can destabilise Cameron enough so that Labour win the next election. A man who puts himself first. Marvellous.
90. “15 out of 17 N.I. MPs could be relied upon to back an IN/OUT referendum.”
Tapestry, there are currently eighteen Northern Ireland MPs, and three of them are SDLP. Another five seats are held by Sinn Fein, who as abstentionists wouldn’t get the chance to back an in/out referendum. As for the Ulster Unionists, in the next parliament they’ve committed thenselves to fully accepting the Tory whip, which would preclude support for any such referendum.
73 and 76. I don’t see why there would be any surprise that the Lib Dems would support AV if it was introduced. It has a number of benefits:
1. Probably more proportional except in extreme cases.
2. Can definitely be seen as a staging post to PR. Remember, the Jenkins commission recommended AV+ and the preferred Lib Dem option is STV which is basically AV using multi-member constituencies…..
3. All part of the process of chipping away at first past the post - very useful to get people to get people familiar with ranking rather than expressing a single preference since most forms of PR use that element.
4. And yes, probably has a slight electoral benefit for the Lib Dems (although minor given increases in tactical voting and growth in “X party can’t win here” messages).
The only reason I can see for Lib Dems not voting for it would be the hoary old chestnut of “it isn’t real PR” and so voting for it would release the pressure for real voting reform.
Just stating it above, I can’t help feeling how lame this argument is.
(Of course, the discussion of whether the Lib Dems would support AV is completely separate to whether they would support a Labour government).
Labour Bots and Trolls have really got their act together over the last two weeks and have helped change the narrative on this site.
For that they must be somewhat applauded because it had started to become a bit one dimensional(apart from Tim and Gabble).
I am afraid for them though it will not last and the Brown will last till around xmas and not much beyond.
Baroness Warsi coming to Sutton today for a conference on the voluntary sector..hopeshe doesnt get abused like she did in Luton the other day.
test. Pick&Mix.
The trajectory of Cameron’s leadership is much closer to another former leader. He might have tried to learn from the New Labour guidebooks on how to win elections, but inadvertently he has followed more closely the course adopted by one of his own recent predecessors….
OK, who could that be?
Disraeli? Churchill? MacMillan?
Oh no
After securing the Conservative leadership in 1997 William Hague set out to modernise his party. In his first conference speech Hague declared repeatedly that it was time to “move on” from the party’s recent preoccupations and reach out to the wider electorate. He warned his audience that the Conservatives were perceived as uncaring and they must act to change the perception. He barely mentioned Europe, beyond a few modest, evasively unifying sentences on the euro. A couple of weeks earlier Hague became the first Tory leader to visit the Notting Hill Carnival to illustrate his ease with cosmopolitan Britain.
Cameron is Hague.
Sue him Dave.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-cameron-is-following-in-the-footsteps-of-hague-1832155.html
I just had a post ‘awaiting moderation’. Thought I was just putting money in peoples’ pockets.
That will never do !
93. “Can definitely be seen as a staging post to PR. Remember, the Jenkins commission recommended AV+ and the preferred Lib Dem option is STV which is basically AV using multi-member constituencies…..”
If anyone in the Lib Dems does think that, it’s complete wishful thinking. Arguing that AV is a stepping-stone to AV+ is roughly equivalent to saying that FPTP is a stepping-stone to AMS - which it plainly isn’t. I can’t see any meaningful distinction between those two propositions at all.
81. The Telegraph aren’t being very fair to my new best friend- ‘Sun-Hating’ Zak. I’m not sure I understand this;
“…. entitlement to tax relief on a 300-acre farm in Devon, and a £7.75 million London home, both owned by firms based in the Caymans”
What tax would there be on your home unless you rent it out?
88, SF are not for withdrawal. Reform yes, but who isn’t?
As far as the DUP is concerned their stance is probably affected by the fact that the EU arose from the Treaty of Rome.
CON 355-357
LD 52-53
Labour Seat Bands
225-249 VC. 5-1
250-274 VC 12-1
275-299 VC 20-1
300-324 VC 28-1
101 - Ladbrokes Tory seat band
275-299 16-1
If the drift goes Lib Dem.
98. The LibDems have to be pragmatic. The know they are never going to get PR for the Commons in one leap. But “abolishing FPTP for all elections in the UK” is now within reach, and if the Commons remains the only non-PR chamber in the UK for the time being, that is still a remarkable change from the situation only 15 years ago.
AV will probably make hung parliaments more likely, and the LibDems will be well positioned to lever the Commons over to PR eventually…
Sounds like another Tory Europe crisis looming - Do they want power ?
102.The absolute trick is to determine the Seat total LAB+CON. Last time I looked the Spreads had the midpoint at 565.
I think the figure is creeping up all the time so I wouldn’t quarrel with 565.
Once you have that sorted you can play around with the Labour and Conservative Seat Bands. Don’t think you have time for ‘ifs’, tim.Shadsy is very quick on the trigger !
98. The question is two-fold:
A. Whether AV is better than first past the post? (Most Lib Dems woud answer “yes”)
B. Whether introducing AV makes it more or less likely that full PR would be introduced?(Here you get the debate between the fundamentalists and the pragmatists - the fundamentalists saying that half-hearted reform is worse than nothing because it defuses the pressure for PR whereas pragmatists think that a modest reform could lead to better things in the future. I have to say, I am entirely with the pragmatists on this - it is the fundamentalists who seem to be indulging in “wishful thinking” that the populace will rise up and demand full PR if first past the post stays in place).
For those reasons, the question of whether to vote in favour of an AV proposal seems like a no-brainer for Lib Dems and I would be surprised if any vote against such a proposal.
The Labour resurgence on here is being mirrored in the country. A huge amount of dissatisfaction with Labour and Brown but an election is looming and voters are starting to see the whites of the Tories eyes (Zulu-Spoiler Alert John Loony) and they are becoming spooked.
As someone said to me yesterday when I said Brown wasn’t up to much “But have you seen the alternative!” and not from someone I would have thought a Labour supporter.
103. Spooky - a pragmatic speaks even before I sent my post at 105.
103 Will AV make hung Parliaments more likely? Seems to me its more likely to reinforce the winning party margin.
Covering the country in wind turbines is a price well worth paying in order to escape from our addiction to Saudi oil, which of course funds terrorism all over the world including in some of our own schools.
66
Jennie Lee is well remembered in South Staffordshire. The locals were none too impressed when the socialist firebrand came to Cannock, canvassing in a fur coat. How were they to know she was merely ahead of her time, blazing the trail for people like Roger, the people’s champion, who despises the sh*tty working class, tim who boasts of his investment portfolio and Blair who used his premiership to vastly enrich himself.
108. Possibly, in some situations, but it will also invariably increase the number of third-party MPs, which increases the chance of a hung parliament, although not hugely.
44. Agree that fusion if it could be done would be a game changer. However a note of caution is in order - IIRC a practical, workable design has been about 10-20 years away for something like 50 years now. We need to get serious now, which means more conventional nuclear power stations and if we must go green things like the Severn Barrage, which could potentially generate up to 15% of the UK’s electric needs on its own, but is being held up because environmentalists are opposed to the loss of coastal wetlands which provide a habitat for migrating birds. They should get their story straight - either climate change is an emergency requiring drastic measures (i.e. if they’re right the migrating birds are probably doomed either way) or it isn’t. It would be a lot easier to believe there was a crisis going on if the people saying so acted like it.
Champagne time in Cowley St if Dave backs down on climate change, his flagship modernisation issue.
In one hit, the accusations about Cameron not having changed his party, saying what you want to hear, unable to lead the party, and ust being another right-winger are validated.
Would leave Zak Goldsmith high and dry and you’ll see on every focus over the next 5 months that only one party can be trusted on climate change. Worth several LD:Con marginals for us.
O/T
I suspect the party will be split, but my view is that treating AV as a stepping stone to PR is like riding a bicycle as a stepping stone to driving; stops you from walking but not a lot more in common.
“things like the Severn Barrage, which could potentially generate up to 15% of the UK’s electric needs on its own,”
Even if you don’t agree with climate change, surely this could only be a good thing- less pollution, less dependency on dodgy regimes.
91.
Davis would have been a good choice originally, he’s not considered a Toff either !
06 Roger
“As someone said to me yesterday when I said Brown wasn’t up to much “But have you seen the alternative!” and not from someone I would have thought a Labour supporter.”
Wow ! I don’t know why we bother with opinion polls.
re 106 More from the Roger anecdote factory. You must spend your day with a very strange group of people or else you are being highly selective in what you report here.
My guess is the latter.
I do wonder if this is like the EU ’split’ reported at the conference.
Environment is easy.
Go for nuclear, promote energy efficiency and micro-generation of renewables. Both green and good for the economy.
92. Thanks James. So much easier asking on PB than wiki!!!!
Unless the Tories eventually offer a referendum IN/OUT, and don’t whip their MPs, the UU would be as good as 5 Douglas Carswells….OUT.
Points taken about Sinn Fein. Thanks.
115 - There’s a third option.
Mike
why are my last two comments moderated
19
Don’t panic Wayne.
re 123 If you change your user name then you don’t get recognised by the server.
122
I can’t imagine what you mean. Is it Labour’s third way ?
Further to 125. Please don’t do this because it’s a pain for me and the team to re-approve you.
He didn’t change it to Private Frazer did he ?
With respect to the Independent front cover, more people are likely to notice the Express headline about ‘The Great Climate Change Fraud, its all about tax.’ Which of those papers’ headlines will be noticed on newstands, in newsagents, filling stations and supermarkets.
Add on the resignation of Dr Jones and one can wonder about the strength of the CC camp. I’m surprised that the Indie has not come out with David Davis wants the polar bear cubs to get it.
Given that Labour have been in power since 1997, one can ask about how much they have allowed to be added the UK’s generating capacity, and how much has been retired. The attitude to nuclear power has been at best unhelpful, and worst luddite.
I do wonder about Cameron’s tactics, and would have expected greater pressure on Brown, over the economy, over govenment spending and taxes.
128 - Interesting to know that Wayne may not consider voting the day after he supposedly became a Conservative Party member.
127. Sorry Mike, Just added a comment next to my name - didn’t realise it screws things upi
Day 2 of the new European Union and the fun starts.
Sarko offers to bring Uk financial sector under control
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/6666188/Nicolas-Sarkozy-hails-EU-appointment-to-clamp-down-on-City-of-London.html#
In\Out referendum just got more likely !
131
Don’t worry Wayne, in our minds we are all adding a comment next to your name.
Compare and contrast.
The BBC on The Express front page. “But the Daily Express devotes its front page to an assault on the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by human activity.”
First couple of sentences from the Express.
“THE scientific consensus that mankind has caused climate change was rocked yesterday as a leading academic called it a ‘load of hot air underpinned by fraud’. Professor Ian Plimer condemned the climate change lobby as “climate comrades” keeping the “gravy train” going. In a controversial talk just days before the start of a climate summit attended by world leaders in Copenhagen, Prof Plimer said Governments were treating the public like “fools” and using climate change to increase taxes.”
111. In what way will having lots of wind turbines stop our need to have core generating capacity, provided by oil, gas and others?
Wind Turbines are just a totem, to the stupid and ill informed. If you want to move away from oil and gas, you need to build nuclear generators, thats the truth
Alan Cochrane:
‘It is good news for Scotland’s children that Alex Salmond has finally faced reality on Fiona Hyslop’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/alancochrane/6707191/It-is-good-news-for-Scotlands-children-that-Alex-Salmond-has-finally-faced-reality-on-Fiona-Hyslop.html
At least there is a discussion about the reality of Global Warming/AGW/MMCC/”Mann-Made” etc.
Labour and the LibDems have swallowed it all and intend taxing us into the ground.
In the long run it may actually be beneficial to be seen as the only skeptical party.
130. Joint years and years ago that’s the renewal date each year, what’s wrong with you?
Are you inspector Morse in disguise. Check with Conservative HQ with the membership number if you feel the need.
120. “promote energy efficiency and micro-generation of renewables. Both green and good for the economy.”
And make it easy to do. Case in point - my house has a stream running along the boundary of the property. I would very much like to put a small hydro-power unit on it to generate some of our electricity. I’ve spent over a year now attempting to investigate the rules on this, grants available (I can’t afford to do it without a grant), etc. and am still almost as baffled about how to go about it as I was when I started. The one thing that has emerged from the fog is that I’m not elegible for a grant unless I can convince the appropriate inspector that every other conceivable conservation measure has been taken first - which in our case would mean ripping out the original Victorian sash windows and replacing them with PVC double glazing, and which in turn would mean my wife would kill me. (Not that it would make much difference anyway - our house already has a rating of something like 90% on it’s energy approval certificate.) So a modest contribution to helping us go green doesn’t get made because of the bureaucratic barriers in the way, I very much doubt I’m the only person in this situation. If only we had somebody closely connected to the government who comments here who could explain why this the wisest and best way of proceeding…
I’ve long since become convinced that the purpose of the regulations isn’t to help people become green - it’s so the government can say they are helping people become green while putting so many obstacles in the way that they end up spending virtually no money.
fr. Your posts are always witty so it’s hard to take offense or even rebut. But your constant reference to the “Shitty White Working Class” is starting to remind me of one of those lunatic asylum jokes that feature obsessives.
119. Mike. Of course they’re selective. If I reported every time someone said Brown was a pile of shit I’d outpost SeanT. So when someone says something different it’s unusual and a useful anecdote. Or I find it so anyway.
130. JohnO. Fast moving game politics!
Dave’s dilemma:
- The Tories probably need at least 40% to form a majority government (+/- about 2% depending on how well Labour does).
- Putting together a coalition that can reach that figure involves attracting marginal and floating voters. The core is only about 30%.
- Not being Labour is enough for opposition but won’t help (much) in government.
- However, putting policies together for government inevitably means running against the opinions of some part of that 40-42% coalition.
This is the problem with the Lisbon policy. The section of the electorate who are really concerned about it and aren’t already signed up to UKIP might only be 2-3% but the Tories need them.
Likewise with climate change. It might only be a small proportion of the Tory vote that takes Dave’s view (and his view is very much in a minority) but he needs them on board. Otherwise, he’s going to be stuck in the thirties.
It was an excellent point by Patrick at [65]: energy policy will be at the back of the public’s mind until or unless it becomes critical. At the moment we’re not there. The political reality is that the environment is a good-time issue. In recessions, people care much more about whether they’ll be able to pay the council tax, mortgage and credit card, and whether they’ll have a job this time next month or next year. In effect, environmental policy is a luxury (until it becomes a necessity).
As an aside, if the government really wanted to (a) do something about the energy problem, (b) stimulate the economy and (c) keep unemployment - especially in contruction - down, the Severn Barrage (and perhaps similar ones in the Mersey and Wash), could have been fast-tracked. Twitchers can’t form that big a part of the electorate.
Obviously “splits” are to be avoided, but a political party should be a broad church. I don’t think its that outrageous that a number of Conservative MP’s (MP on all sides of the House really) reflect that there is still uncertainty about whether AGW is even happening, nevermind what can be done about it.
Of course Camerons position is differant. When he gets into government he’s having scientists and experts coming up to him and telling him AGW is fact and that action needs to be taken. And as PM he won’t be able to ignore tham. However, backbench MP’s have the luxery of not being in that position, which affords them the opportunity to speak out if they wish.
I wonder what Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn thinks about AGW, seeing as his brother is none other than Piers Corbyn, severe weather ramper and extrme AGW denier?
139. The last thing any government wants is you generating your own heat or power or fuel. My brother runs around with water turning to hydrogen and oxygen under the bonnet (hood) of his car, and keeps very quiet about it, as he knows the powers that be would move in and ’sort’ him if they knew.
Many Americans resorted to building their own electric and hydrogen cars, but it only reaches the media but occasionally.
These big meetings in Copenhagen should be saying you don’t need us any more as fuel technologies are available at home to avoid buying in the stuff centrally generated nowadays.
No they don’t do that. They try to stop people being fuel efficient and then tax them to oblivion.
141 - He’s the speedy Gonzalez of pbc.
On Climategate
Phil Jones has been suspended/sacked as director of the CRU. Australian Senate has voted down their Emissions trading bill by a substantial margin. So either the government accepts or goes to the polls.
There will be no deal at Copenhagen. The developing countries aren’t interested unless they get big bribes from the developed countries. The US won’t play that game. The Senate will vote down Cap and trade.
In all of this, the musings of Davis are a side show. Energy policy is of vital importance however and an end of climate hysteria should bring a bit of rationality back.
Anyone know what happened to the financial wizards on here who predicted the market would fall to 2500 or lower? The only one still posting seems to be ‘Madfish’. I hope it’s not shame at their poor predictions? On that basis I’d have gone long ago.
140
Yes roger, but you applied the term to a mother whose son had had his legs blown off and then bled to death, and then had the temerity to criticize Gordon Brown.
Where Cameron made his big mistake on climate change was being seen as too close to the complete looney greens.
The recent revelations are calling the whole issue into question, but leave that aside for a moment.
Assume that Climate Change is a problem and the Government whether Red or Blue has to act. There are many “Tory” ways to tackle the problem, that would be very different to the current “End of the World is Nigh” brigade and their repent or be doomed religion masquarading as science.
Measures to increase efficiency are by far the most sensible cost and effective. Connecting carbon taxes to decreases in other tax would be a very conservative way to nudge people toward efficiency.
Wind is only a partial solution at best and solar in the UK is just, well laughable. Investment in R&D in wave and tidal make huge sense long term, but in the meantime we need Nukes, like tim needs the Bullingdon Club.
Hugging huskies was a great pr move, but he should have developed a different narrative on how to solve the problem, and he should have been very high profile about the difference.
Now that the very science is being called into question, it would be a good time to make a big speech on sensible, sustainable solutions to energy security. Its an opportunity to change tack.
138 - Ho, ho, ho…it’s the way you tell ‘em. “Renews” his membership one day, says he may not vote the very next.
Was going to add. If you look at the political manoueverings in Australia and the US on their respective climate bills, you realise the value of genuine checks and balances.
True Liberals should be arguing for a democratic lords which is difficult, though not impossible, for the governing party in the commons to control.
147. Perhaps those market falls will still occur when the QE tap is finally turned off? Or does Labour intend keeping printing money indefinatly?
On topic - splits can be damaging, so there is potential for a problem, but if you read the small print of the articles the differences which are being highlighted as a split are highly nuanced.
73, 76, 94
I don’t agree that it is only extreme cases when AV is actually less proportionate that FPTP.
I strongly suspect that at least three recent elections - 1983, 1987, and 1997 - would have produced even less proportionate results under AV. On balance that would have been a bad thing for the health of British democracy.
AV for the Commons; STV for the Lords and local government. That’s the way forward.
In the right place wind turbines can be beautiful things.
David @ 155
Up David Milliband’s rear end?
Final word from me for this morning. All these issues, Europe, Climate Change, extremists teaching children, are important, but they are not part of the key narrative Cameron and the Conservatives should be running with right now. The key narrative is still the economy. It should be economy. Economy. Economy. Day in and day out from now until the election.
Gosh! hardly anybody in the Tory party believes in the Cameron agenda: thats news to me.
A few years ago, John Howard’s party was held up by Conservatives as the model for themselves, they wouldn’t today, perhaps we are seeing the future for the Tories.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/27/australia-liberal-party-climate-change
147 The pessimists forgot that people looking for a positive return on investments when interest rate returns are very low will look to stocks, shares and commodities so FTSE will rise partly as a result of cash seeking a return.
On the City I see Sarkozy is going all out to provide Cameron with the meat he needs to show his Eurosceptic teeth. Early “Non” from UK on the cards if Conservatives win the GE.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6939895.ece
150. John others
I will possibly always be a member, I’m just not convinced by PR man Cameron! And the way he has fudged the whole Lisbon issue and lost us 4/5 percent vote share in the process!
You have to realise he is up against a useless, fag end, derided government and is barely holding onto a ten point lead.
154
Shame we don’t have a party getting angry about the gaping democratic deficit in the Lords isn’t it? If I’m honest, the biggest disappointment I’ve had from Cameron was when he said Lords reform was not a first term priority.
You would expect the *Liberal* Democrats to bang this drum, but they’re more interested in partisan advantage than channeling Tom Paine.
And Labour of course have only a passing relationship with liberalism, usually when suckering the yellow peril.
160
What constituency?
58
Yes, who would have thought that even the Independent and the Mirror would turn against him ?
148. fr. Your point seems to be that a mother whose son died in battle is entitled to behave as badly as she likes? That’s a fair enough opinion.
But where does the ‘Shitty White Working Class’ thing come from? That she chose to sell her note and phone call to the Sun doesn’t make her a Sun reader if that’s it-just someone savvy enough to know who pays the best price.
The problem Cameron has - and it’s a problem that will become more acute if/when the Tories are in power - is that by dragging his party (reluctantly) to the centre ground he has left acres of space to his right for a credible centre-right presence. Blair didn’t have that problem, because socialism had been so discredited by 1983 - let alone 1994 - that he was able to march his party to the centre ground without having much to fear from his left flank.
By contrast Cameron has left plenty of space for an anti-statist, low-tax-low-spending, anti-immigration, anti-EU, self-appointed voice of common sense ‘n’ law and order ‘n’ standards grouping to his right. That grouping could not of itself be sufficiently popular to win an election (not least because it will attract a lot of kranks) but it will have the capacity to adversely impact Tory support, feeding the “splits” meme and reducing enthusiasm for the Tories amongst right-leaning people.
Fortunately for Cameron there is no sign that any political party (by which I mean UKIP) will successfully occupy that space at a national level but the existence of an informal grouping in that political space will nonetheless be a constant thorn in his side.
He should, of course, continue to steer the same course.
142 - David Herdson.
Likewise with climate change. It might only be a small proportion of the Tory vote that takes Dave’s view (and his view is very much in a minority)
That surprises me.
So people bought the husky stuff so long as they were doing ok in the polls?
It does make me wonder what would happen in Government, ore even after two months of bad polling.
167 Roger, a bit close to libel there - she didn’t “sell” anything, she was campaigning and used the Sun as a vehicle to push her campaign for no financial return.
This is funny. Who said the following, Gordon Brown or an Aussie leftie:
“We all know the Liberal Party is deeply divided on this question,”
“We believe over the Christmas period there is time for the calmer heads in the Liberal Party to consider this question, to consider acting in the national interest.”
The Government would bring the legislation back in February “because it’s the right thing to do”.
Straight out of the Gordon playbook. So much for Rudd going to the polls.
Mike, you might want to check Roger’s post@164. IIRC, the Sun were very clear at the time that no money had changed hands over this story. The mother of that dead soldier had just found out the details of the way her son had died when she got that letter, I cannot begin to imagine the distress that must have caused her.
160 “I will possibly always be a member”,
The relief at CCO will be palpable
166
“So people bought the husky stuff so long as they were doing ok in the polls?”
you mean a bit like repealing Clause 4 ?
Mail picks up DD’s comments, they’ll soon start running a DD4PM campaign I should imagine.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232507/David-Camerons-fixation-emissions-targets-cripple-economy-claims-David-Davis.html
Nobody goes to the Sun if it’s not for money. What’s more everybody knows that.
On thread - the answer is of course no. This is another non-story created by a bored/partisan media.
If the balance of evidence on climate change continues to shift, then the Conservatives will simply alter their position in line with this.
And this is very easy because, as noted upthread, there are very good arguments for doing certain things associated with the GW agenda even if GW proves a mirage - so it could be as simply as shifting the rhetorical emphasis.
In particular, the case for increasing the UK’s energy independence is overwhelming, and Britain is in a strong position to do this using real renewable sources e.g. the aforementioned Severn barrage.
As for wind power, objective analysis shows onshore wind farms are a scam that will do precisely nothing to improve either energy independence or the climate situation. If changing scientific opinion leads to this scam coming to an end, so much the better.
There is not the slightest doubt that the woman agreed a payment with the Sun. I didn’t even realize it was in doubt. If they said there wasn’t it’s not true.
153. Ironically, AV can be more proportional overall, while still being even more “unfair” to the Tories. That is an artifact of the indices of proportionality.
I actually believe that the impact would be minimal under present voting patterns, giving the LibDems about 10-15 more seats, predominantly, but not exclusively, gained from the Tories.
The reason for that is not everyone would express a second preference. The experience of Scotland’s STV system shows that only about 60% of voters give a second or further preference. If that pattern was replicated under AV, only about 30 seats in the Commons would have different winners to their FPTP outcome, although the vast majority would be subjected to the counting of second preferences. In that respect, AV is a rather tedious prospect, for such a minimal change in outcome…
Roger. I really think such an accusation needs some basis in fact. If you can’t provide the evidence your posts should be withdrawn.
Either way, your posts are a useful insight into the mind of new labour.
All Cameron has to do is adopt the classical Conservative approach - be pragmatic.
Move away from reliance on fossil fuels which are increasingly in the hands of foreign states (of dubious intention) and move to a more strategically sound proposition of generating our own power via nuclear or renewable - ie Flood Wales. I hope Carwyn Jones owns a wetsuit.
160 Saffron Walden , Uttlesford - Sir Alan Haselhurst MP
http://order-order.com/2009/12/02/cru-boss-stands-aside-queens-university-blocking-data-foi/
178 Wales is very beautiful — why can’t we flood Birmingham and Liverpool instead ?
177. I’m nothing to do with New Labour. I know of no one-even Zak Goldsmith-who thought the Sun’s behaviour anything other than shocking. I even think it one of the reasons for the Tories poll problems.
As for money- no one gives their story to the Sun if it isn’t for money. Almost any other daily but not the Sun or Mirror. Anyone who knows anything about newspapers will tell you that.
175 Roger, “slightest doubt”? What about denials from both Mrs Janes and the Sun when the allegation you repeat was made?
180. And meanwhile Nick Stern & Co. have releases a hysterical report calling Copenhagen the last chance to ’save the world’.
The increasingly shrill and desperate tone being adopted by the GW industry over the last few weeks, since the CRU story broke, suggests they know the game could be up.
181. Flooding Liverpool would also probably increase UK GDP.
181
I’d actually much prefer to flood Birmingham and Liverpool but
no mountains and valleys. (although thinking of Liverpool, it might be worthwhile flooding it as a precaution)
re 175. That could be defamatory Roger.
182
So you don’t have any evidence, just supposition. Your theories are yours, but should be presented as theory, not fact.
‘wayne’
I’ll be in touch with them.
Mike. I have not the slightest doubt. Did ‘The Sun’ say they were donating money to a charity of her choice? That’s usually the wording when the recipient is embarrassed.
BTW What is the Sun story that Roger and others are referring to?
The DD4PM bandwaggon gathers momentum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/6704955/David-Davis-green-movement-fixated-with-targets-crippling-economy.html
It’ll be OZ all over again by tomorrow.
189. It’s the one about the dead soldier’s mother and Brown’s handwriting, no?
186.Mike, I think that the post@164 could be as well.
181/184/185 You might have some difficulty flooding Liverpool, considering it is built on a ridge of sandstone hills rising to 230 feet above sea level…
193. But we can still still dream, Rod…
189.Mike, its the story of the mother who received the letter of condolence from Gordon Brown that was littered with mistakes.
I think that the post@164 is another one you might want to check.
193 Actually building a Mersey Barrage or installing a tidal flow farm in the Mersey would be a good idea - maybe you don’t need to flood the city after all.
re 193 I would not argue with Rod about anything to do with Liverpool.
188 Roger, on Radio 5 on 10th November the Sun’s managing editor Graham Dudman said that Mrs Janes had not requested payment, not had any money changed hands.
Mrs Janes had asked for a tribute to her dead son to be published as it was in the Sun on that day.
Davis just saying what the vast majority in the country outside the beeboid bubble think.
Grow some nuts DC.
I note than when the SNP have a bad poll (eg. last YouGov) we get threads and threads of comments about how independence is dead for a generation; yet when the SNP have a good poll we get… silence.
Mmmm… seems that some PBers are rather too prone to shooting their mouths off without due recourse to the facts at hand. Quelle surprise. I just wish we had a few more PBers who actually knew a wee bit about Scottish politics. Most of you are utterly useless cos you just don’t have the faintest scoobie what goes on north of the border.
Meanwhile in loony leftie land there is no room for dissent..
“leading authority” - my @ss
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6701307/Copenhagen-summit-is-last-chance-to-save-the-planet-Lord-Stern.html
The Copenhagen summit is the world’s last chance to save the planet from “catastrophic” global warming, according to a major study led by Lord Stern of Brentford, the country’s leading authority on climate change.
There’s general greenie-ness and there’s the global warming scam. The people using the global warming scam as a vehicle for a hoped for massive increase in state power and control are extremely dangerous and it’ll end in collective farming part 2 except the millions doing the starving will most likely be in the 3rd world like with the biofuels.
On the other hand the schools have been brain-washing everyone’s kids on this for years (hopefully overdoing it?) and Pravda pours out GWS propaganda every day so politian’s here have to finesse any opposition even if they think it’s all a con.
So dunno. Stressing other greenie things while de-stressing the GWS might have worked but Cameron’s jumped on the GWS bandwagon already so it’s difficult. Over time though, as the specifics of what the power-mad want the GWS hysteria for becomes more obvious, then his position will become increasingly untenable.
Also al Beeb may be trying to ignore the climategate emails but Fox isn’t. Seems to me this is likely to come back across the atlantic eventually.
194. You can dream. I’m just content to be living near what Pevsner described as “the most splendid setting of any English city…”
200. To be fair Stuart - I think people just dabble to wind you up. You might ask yourself if you think you deserve it or not.
Stuart
bit early to be hitting the Glenfiddich
Developing a strong position on the environment and conserving the landscape etc is vital to securing a future for the Tory Party and gaining support from younger people. It also fits in well with many people’s conceptions of what Conservatism is all about. Most Tories I know have a strong regard for the importance of the environment. “Thatcherite” free market absolutism now belongs in the political knacker’s yard (to be fair Mrs T was never a purist Thatcherite in that regard either). Market forces have to be managed to achieve the right outcomes which doesn’t necessarily always equate to material prosperity. I think this is Cameron’s position.
On topic: Brown’s conversion to AV is entirely cynical. AV would have a devastating effect on the Tories’ ability to win seats in the South West. They would have been completely wiped out in 97 by the LibDems if Labour voters could have transferred. They would also be rendered incapable of ever achieving a recovery in Scotland if AV was introduced. AV = disproportional representation.
over a year ago I asked Andrew Lansley at a fundraising dinner if the Conservatives had a plan how to get out of the ‘pro’ MMGW lead they were taking should MMGW prove to be wrong.
Well it was like sticking a pin into him (or worse) - his response was vicious. There could be no contemplation that MMGW wasn’t happening - so no need for a plan. Hmmm….
Tidal power has vast potential. Not only the Severn, but the Mersey, Clyde and Thames. The long proposed second thames barrier could double as a tidal generator.
Stuart
What have SNP poll ratings got to do with Independence. I think your confusing/conflating two separate issues.
There is no doubt that CCHQ are really worried about the Lib Dem/Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the incumbents.
The love bombing strategy will only work so far and that then leaves the door for the LD literature to spout off whatever lies and drivel they feel will give them an advantage.
I still think the LDs are a buy on the spreads as their support looks and feels rock solid.
The chippiness of the Tory core is intriguing. They seem to be quite prepared to let best be the enemy of good.
Interesting to see Peter the Punter suggesting a Tory sell. That is what I am doing, on the ground that sooner or later, punters will take fright at the size of the task, given current polls. I wouldn’t be seen dead buying Labour though.
SPIN has moved, by the way. Labour now 208-213, the Tories 352-357.
118 - I was wondering if the person was Dutch
Have been saying for a long time now that you should buy Labour up to 225 on the seats mkt.
130 - LOL strange one that.
Or, we can take everything he says with a huge pinch of salt.
201. Just to put readers in the picture, this is the same Nick Stern who recently suggested meat eating might in future be compared with drink driving…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6891362.ece
David Herdson at 142 sums it up very well (as usual), though I think he’s being a bit blithe in the assumption that the Severn Barrage can just be waved through like an ambulance bypassing a traffic jam. I favour the project but if it’s not done carefully it would not only breach international wildlife conventions that we’re signed up to but also have the potential to be a huge white elephant. The current feasibility study is pretty essential IMO.
runnymede is right that any government which pursues anti-climate change measures can simply ease up on them if the scientific consensus changes. But as we’ve seen here, there is a segment of the Tory party that has a strong emotional dislike of the whole thing - they feel it’s a monstrous conspiracy by scientists and sandal-wearers and only knaves and idiots go along with it. Davis has positioned himself to mop up the support of this group should the occasion for a leadership bid arise at some point. Does anyone here really think he is just motivated by dispassionate interest in the issue?
213. He’s an economist-cum-scientist - and available for “peer reviews”.
206. Rather unfair to pose such a searching question to a man of such limited intellect I would have thought.
214 So Nick do you really think that GB is motivated by dispassionate interest in the issue?
If i remember rightly it was the Labour party who were the last to grasp the global warming and climate change agaenda…
At least you’ve got Zac on your side Roger.
Mr Goldsmith said that the Sun’s treatment of Gordon Brown over his letter to the mother of a bereaved soldier had left him with “a very odd feeling”.
“My heart went out to Gordon Brown and I was repulsed by the Sun and I thought ‘My God, I did not want this newspaper to be backing my campaign’,”
“It is immoral and unethical and wrong. The Conservative party by default got caught up by this which is a shame.”
With recent opinion polls narrowing, he added that the party’s association with the Sun had led to a fall in Tory support.
Not sure you’ want it though, good thing he was born rich, he’d have starved to death otherwise.
If the Tories can blame their support for Iraq on misinformation, to put it kindly, doesn’t Climategate give them a great opportunity to back-pedal on MMGW and in particular the idea of taxing ‘carbon (dioxide) emissions’? I’m not suggesting a volte-face into full blown scepticism but maybe ‘after concerns have been raised about the independence and probity of several of the leading scientists involved in producing the IPCC’s Assessment Reports, and the accuracy of their data, we will need to look much more carefully at the reliability of the forecasts on which demands for radical economic policies are based’ wouldn’t be an unreasonable position.
Going green was an obvious way of demonstrating Dave’s modernisation of the Tory party but I doubt there are many votes in it for them and much to lose. Environmental scares are are only ever used to justify green policies which involve more taxation, more government interference in people’s lives and obliging voters to spend rather a lot of time watching their electricity meters - which may in future be ’smart’ ones which can turn appliances off if you use more power than the government thinks is reasonable, whether you like it or not.
And excellent posts as usual from Patrick upthread. Energy security and cost will indeed be a major concern for voters but not until the lights actually start going out, by which time a solution to the problem will be ten years away. Although, this may have an upside in that voters will blame both the Greens and the EU for closing down our power stations and leaving them in darkness, leading to a surge of popular sentiment against both.
I did an early morning piece on Today this morning and a fellow (financial) guest was trying to get the Producer to get the Conservative MP who is probably the most anti-EU to comment on the Sarko remarks. I was thinking just how little Cameron would have appreciated waking up to that! In the end they got a stock broker who made far more sense than this MP ever does. Meanwhile the Zac Goldsmith non-dom thing is probably gong to cost him the seat, and DC is already looking quite short of allies. The fact is that it is not just climate change- the EU thing is still out there: if DC does not win he is going to be crucified by these right wingers.
Has Cameron lost the election in the last few weeks?
160 ” barely holding onto a ten point lead.”
Priceless
1. I almost never drink spirits, and when I do (about twice a year) it tends to be cognac not whisky
2. I drink very little at all these days, and never before about 6
3. it is people like SeanT who constantly say things like “independence is dead for a generation” when the SNP have a wee dip in a poll. You really ought to complain to him.
220, haha. No.
The polls always narrow at this time of year, and right now there’s a huge spread from a lead of 6 to 17 points.
The media have been kinder to Labour since the Sun went over the top, but we’ll have the PBR soon which will hopefully see a strong Tory response.
175/182etc ‘As for money- no one gives their story to the Sun if it isn’t for money. Almost any other daily but not the Sun or Mirror. Anyone who knows anything about newspapers will tell you that..’
STILL trying to smear the grieving mother of a dead soldier. Classy stuff. I think that says more about you than her. Do you really think financial gain was her primary aim in all this? Or are you just attention seeking?.
From the Sun
MPS and peers were caught short yesterday - when the Houses of Parliament ran out of TOILET ROLLS.
Politicians were left looking flushed as rumours spread that there was hardly any loo paper left for more than 13,300 Parliamentary pass-holders.
Insiders blamed KGB Cleaning Suppliers, the firm contracted to keep Westminster spick and span.
They claimed cleaners had warned they were heading for a log-jam in supplies.
Tissue issues … Westminster
Sources said the problem was triggered by the “just-in-time” supply policy used by KGB - which stands for Kevan and Gina Brown, the firm’s owners.
One said: “Cleaners have been complaining about a shortage of loo roll for days. It’s all come to a head today. There are loads of toilets without a scrap of paper.”
Staff at KGB Cleaning’s Westminster office confirmed there had been problems.
One worker said: “There has been an issue with supplies. But it will be sorted out as soon as possible.”
Last night an emergency order was rushed in to relieve MPs and peers.
A Commons spokesman said: “I have spoken to the cleaners and there are adequate supplies of toilet paper.”
Well the can always use expense forms, they won’t needing ‘em.
Morning all
On the issue of PR, as an LD, it’s been important but never a deal-breaker for me. There are far more important things to deal with were we considering a Con-LD deal for example than the voting system. I’ve little time for AV or its variations and Party policy has long been to back STV for all elections and I detect a little mischief-making in some of today’s reports.
On climate change, I go to sites like theweatheroutlook.com to gauge the debate and it’s extraordinarily fierce. As others have said, the long-term availability of cheap fuel is a huge problem - any new nuclear stations are years away from coming on-stream and we remain committed to the car and all that issues forth therefrom.
We are seven billion and rising on this planet. It seems reasonable that even minor changes in climate are going to impact numbers of people and I’d further add that without getting into the whole AGW debate, it is obvious that changes made by man to local eco-systems have exacerbated the impact of abnormal weather events.
If we build in known flood plains or we change water courses we can hardly be surprised if that comes back to bite us somewhere unpleasant.
219. I see it isn’t just Nick Palmer who has retreated into a fantasy world.
222. I should add its almost irrelevant on here whether you deserve it or not
160 “I’m just not convinced by PR man Cameron! And the way he has fudged the whole Lisbon issue and lost us 4/5 percent vote share in the process! You have to realise he is up against a useless, fag end, derided government and is barely holding onto a ten point lead.”
wayne, have you been drinking at the SeanT saloon? What a fickle, flip-flopping creature you are; I sincerely hope you do not hold down a job where panic and indecision would lead to an increased risk to the lives of others.
255. I think this abnormal situation was caused by Tories perusing the latest opinion polls…
200. Oh dear –Stuart’s getting offended again because others are not as interested in Scottish politics as he is. Do Scottish Nationalists of this ilk not realise how ridiculous this attitude is? To borrow an analogy from P J O’Rourke, they come across as an acne scarred 14 year old boy obsessed with the beautiful, sophisticated 18 year old girl (England) next door. Theboy wants the approval and validation of the girl, and if that isn’t available is desperate at least to be noticed, even if it means being snubbed – however the girl is barely aware that he even exists and certainly can’t be troubled to waste energy having an opinion about him. Being ignored like this upsets the boy even more than being insulted would, and when he threatens to dump her and go out with the even more beautiful and sophisticated 20 year old (Europe) in the next street instead, she just shrugs her shoulders instead of begging him to stay.
Compare and contrast with the attitude of the handful of Welsh posters around here – do the likes of Gwynfa, Valleyboy and me waste time and energy being offended that the English are not as interested in or knowledgeable of Welsh politics as we are, or do we simply understand that it’s a minority pursuit of only limited interest to people outside Wales, and that a UK forum is going to spend most of its time talking about UK politics? (I suspect even we could contain our excitement over the new first minister though.) and which attitude is healthier? This, or the look at me! Me! MEEE! attidude of the Scots Nats?
230. You’re a real sage Rod, referencing comments that haven’t even been made yet!
173 - Ever heard of principles?
Oh, Ad director, ex public schoolboy who can afford to insulate himself from the damage Labour has done.
Probably not then
I’m sure Rog didnt really mean to be that nasty to a bereaved mother, hes Dutch friends made him do it.
Morning all.
With all due respect to our distinguished PB posters, there’s lots of tosh being posted today.
(1) DD will never be Tory leader (even if Cameron’s position were in any doubt, which of course it isn’t). He knows it, everyone in the party knows it. The majority of those who supported him against Cameron would not do so now. Apart from anything else, he would be seen as yesterday’s man.
(2) I don’t recognise this story of Tory splits or dissension on climate change and energy policy. I attended a party meeting on this very subject a few months ago, where speakers included the shadow ministers plus the MD of one of the Carbon Trading exchanges and a representative of the nuclear industry. Four things came out very clearly:
(a) The shadow team have been doing some very serious homework, and policy is very well developed. In particular, their views on the risks from AGW are based of very extensive research, not some faddish whim of Dave’s. (Of course, Climategate may mean that these views might need to be re-evaluated, but that is true for all parties and all governments in the Western world - it is not a specifically Conservative problem);
(b) There is a major crisis looming in energy capacity (as Patrick points out above), and we need to get building power stations ASAP;
(c) Nuclear power will have to be a big component of that; wind power simply cannot provide the capacity, and in any case the enviromental damage from tens of thousands of turbines, plus the distribution network required to service them (a point often forgotten), would be completely unacceptable;
(d) There was a remarkable degree of enthusiasm, amongst ordinary members, for measures to cut carbon emissions - this was a big surprise to me.
(3) Punters are over-reacting to a temporary blip in support for the Conservatives, and forgetting that Cameron and Osborne are very smart political operators. Bear in mind that there is not going to be an election before March at the earliest; the Tory strategists are aiming for that goal, not for opinion poll figures in the run-up to Christmas.
The Lib Dem incumbents must be loving all this, Dave giving tax cuts to his rich mates and the right on manoeuvres over greenery.
Its the perfect combination for them to get Labour tactical voters to rally behind them and keep their waverers.
If it carries on they’ll get some soft Tories as well.
“…. entitlement to tax relief on a 300-acre farm in Devon, and a £7.75 million London home, both owned by firms based in the Caymans”
What tax would there be on your home unless you rent it out?
by Roger December 2nd, 2009 at 7:34 am
Yes, trenchant criticism from the high ground by a paper owned by two tax exiles who probably have more tax avoidance vehicles than London Transport have busses.
Hypocrisy stalks the land from Brown to Barclays.
227- It strikes me that far from “sealing the deal” with the British people, the Cameroons are struggling to seal the deal with the Conservative Party itself: there is a growing faction in the Tories that is livid about Cameron’s Lisbon policy, and these same people are not jumping on the climate change denial bandwagon.
It ain’t over until the votes are in, and these are dangerous times for DC. The longer the “hung parliament” scenario is out there, rather than “inevitable Tory majority”, the more difficult it could get for him.
‘Punters are over-reacting to a temporary blip in support for the Conservatives’
I’m afraid we do tend to get a lot of that on here. It was very interesting to read the thread referenced yesterday from a year ago, which contained a priceless comment by a well-known contributor to this site - full of what turned out to be laughably inaccurate (but vehemently expressed) predictions.
Morning, Richard Nabavi. I’m a punter and I’m overreacting and proud of it !
Most of the stuff I do is either short-term or very short-term and I will be with the Blue Boys when it matters.
For now I think that designer Backs of Labour are a shot to nothing.
Regards.
234 - There is a trading opportunity selling the Conservatives at present. If the next few opinion polls confirm the emerging message that the Tory rating is falling, then the spreads may move quite a bit.
With Labour not noticeably rising in the polls, it’s unnecessarily risky to buy Labour rather than sell the Conservatives.
207 Don’t forget Hornsey
237. Once again you are simply confusing your own (desperate) hopes with reality.
“are the more it raises the question as to whether he has really changed his party.”
Hhmmm that’s a curiously loaded statement. Changed from what to what?
237 “…now jumping….”, not “….not jumping…”
235 ‘Dave giving tax cuts to his rich mates’
TIMBOT, surely they’re all too rich to benefit? Just as most of the Labour front bench are too.
44 “Would it not be better for mankind if a big chunk of the money and resources we devote to climate change were instead directed to pushing fusion power technologies?”
Agree 100%. Invent our way out of the problem same as always.
Fascinating stuff:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/12/02/86626/gotcha-the-falkland-oilands-revisted/
239 - The lib Dems in Southport are very good odds.
[242] “A wish is not a claim upon reality” is a maxim I use a lot, but as antifrank notes, there is a trade here- and that /u is u/ real. I think that you may be getting a tad complacent here.
247
looks like we’re going to need a Navy again !
239, 240 URW/antifrank - Yes, certainly a short-term trade on selling the Tories makes sense, however it might already be too late.
249. Well I suggest you put your money on then, instead of rehearsing your ill-informed opinions about Conservative Party thinking.
What is UKIP’s stance on climate change?
David Davis wants a ‘debate’…
Dear Oh Bloody Dear…
We remember what happened the last time that occurred…
This is not going to end well.
Roger 140
I quite enjoy friendly banter as you have noticed, but I think the iron entered my soul when you posted this:
“In my experience grieving people are usually at their most humble grateful for all the sympathy offered. This woman by secretly recording a conversation with the Prime Minister in order to give it to the Sun has behaved atrociously. Grief doesn’t forgive this anymore than it excuses any other grotesque behaviour. Nice people are nice people and shits are shits.”
by Roger November 10th, 2009 at 10:10 am
247 astateofdenmark I have used up my Ft allowance so can you precis what the article says?
PMQs today - IMHO Cameron is going into this at his weakest point for a long time, possibly a year, in terms of all the issues piling up.
On fusion, there are a number of prototypes in operation, the most notable being the ITER one, funded by a number of governments:
http://www.iter.org/default.aspx
This is expensive, but worth it. If they can get a design that produces power at reasonable cost, then anyone can get power indigenously. It is potentially, virtually limitless, although it will be initially very expensive to install.
Big if, though.
253 - That it’s caused by Eurocrats, Romanians and young people.
256
The article links to a free blog, no allowance necessary.
257. Years ago I inquired of a local green activist who opposed nuclear (fission) power how he would react if fusion got off the ground and proved a safe source of cheap energy.
His response was intriguing - along the lines ‘we wouldn’t like that either because that would mean we wouldn’t get all the other changes in society we want [i.e. abolishing capitalism and living some kind of subsistence existence with 20 million fewer people]‘
256: doesn’t seem to be a login version. If the link doesn’t work for you though say and I will copy / paste…
Re: 234 - A good attempt to rally the troops there, Richard. Of course, any significant differences in policy are going to be masked until the election is won. There are also a number of people on this site who play the spreads over short periods. If a few poor polls offer an opportunity or two, so be it.
The only thing I would say is that over the past few days people have begun to think the previously unthinkable - what if they don’t win ? We’ve already seen the City boys trying to stem talk of a Hung Parliament by claiming it would lead to a financial crisis (as if Governments with majorities don’t have crises of their own).
Of course all of this will be stilled by a couple of polls restoring the Conservatives above 40% with a solid lead but IF, and it’s big if, things don’t improve some tough questions will be asked. Cameron’s position is built primarily on what he has achieved by decontaminating the Tory brand and aided by his opponents restoring the Conservatives to the brink of Government.
And yet…what if he fails ? I’m with many on here who would consider five more years of Labour Government a catastrophe but it’s no longer unthinkable - it’s a very remote possibility but not completely ruled out.
I’m sure Conservatives would be content with a minority or even a coalition but let me ask this - if the options are coalition or five more years of opposition, which way would you want the Tories to go ?
Hmm, this is a very good thread thread for the Tories. Just a few days of moderate news for Dave and already the Labourites are swaggering. Roger, for example, in typical New Labour fashion, feels he can slander the mother of a dead serviceman and get away with it. Labour cannot afford such hubris - Brown must be portrayed as meek and vulnerable, a Tiny Tim figure. Meanwhile all talk of policy must be rigorously avoided - only the corruption of Cameron and Osborne should get an airing. These threads can be an excellent barometer of the Labour mindset. If this is anything to go by, Labour will soon be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Richard Nabavi/antifrank/tim and anyone who likes money.
I think the logistics have changed somewhat. I am avoiding the Spreads as stated upthread and as you all know I have been scathing of BUYERS in the past.
My game has been to Back the Labour Seat Bands above 224 where practicable rather than to Sell the Tories and my reasoning is that the SNP are in freefall and that the jury is out on the Lib Dems.
On topic, I am currently reading Gateway by Frederick Pohl, in which he imagines an earth so deprived of resources that every last drop of oil is wrung out of the earth not to fuel transport but to grow food.
I find it baffling that many of the same Tories who bang on about Gordon Brown passing on debt to subsequent generations are completely insouciant of consuming the planet’s resources and depriving those same subsequent generations of their fair share.
Agree Mike. This is very dangerous for Cameron. The “email scandal” has flushed out all the “head-bangers” in conservative parties across the world, with the Australian right being the first casualty as it commits suicide over the matter.
Blair would have used this as an opportunity to pick a fight with the dissident wing of his party, and he would have won the public’s admiration for being a strong leader. Cameron however is not made of that stuff, and will fail to reign in the AGW deniers. Dangerous times ahead.
Peter Lilley, (remember him? yeah I know he’s easy to forget) wades in. On a Russian news channel no less.
http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2009/12/peter-lilley-accuses-climate-change-scientists-of-unconscious-conspiracy.html
Tim,
A follow up on the Warsi / Luton story
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1232500/Face-face-men-hate-The-Muslim-fanatics-attacked-Baroness-Warsi.html
265 Antifrank - being an enviromentalist, good husbandry of the planets resources, reducing the harm to eco systems etc is the core message that should be sent out. To an extent the AGW stuff was overlaid on sound principles as a way of proving the damage; it has a life of its own now (rightly or wrongly) which overshadows the former case.
“Former Miss Argentina, Solange Magnano, 38, dies after buttock implants operation”
This is very danderous for Cameron
262 - It would not be 5 more years though would it.
no way will Labour get a majority and with the way 2010 is going to go I would expect them to lose a vote of confidence and another election in short order.
I hate what Labour has done, but it would be ironic after all this poisoning of the well if they had to face up to their own actions.
Mind you those of the country not insulated by wealth from the effects of a Labour victory woul dpay a bitter price, hey, don’t expect Labour to care about that though.
Power is power afterall.
248- possibly, but I wouldn’t want to bet on the Southport result, it’s too hard to predict
264 - I bought Labour at 203 and have sold the Tories at 355 this morning, I’m happy with those positions.
In addition I’ve increased a bit on some Lib Dem held constituencies where the Tories are challenging.
On the seat bands I tend to agree with you, but covered most of them when we first had this discussion a couple of months ago when you emerged from Big Brother.
266 “deniers”
I love that word. Burn them!!
85 “Some half-truths in Norwich have lead to political Armageddon in Canberra, which will now reverberate back to Copenhagen within 7 days.”
Lol. Many a true word spoken in jest.
271- I imagine that when Brown hasn’t got a majority on the day after the election, he will try to arrest members of the new government. Being Gordon Brown he will fail in this and retreat from London to somewhere near Nottingham, perhaps Broxtowe, to raise his banner for civil war.
276 - Well, they have had one opposition mp arrested already.
Labour in its current guise are not very democratic
276
Will Prince Rupert rally to his banner ?
Great sporting news today -England have been seeded for the world cup and our sailors have been released from Iranian hands.
262 stodge - I’m sure Conservatives would be content with a minority or even a coalition but let me ask this - if the options are coalition or five more years of opposition, which way would you want the Tories to go?
An interesting question, but I don’t think they should be content with a minority or coalition government.
My personal view is that a Hung Parliament would be the worst of all possible worlds - even worse than a Labour majority (as long as Brown was ditched). The country is in a deep, deep hole, and it needs a government which can act responsibly and decisively, not one which is in thrall to special interest groups and always focused on the short-term.
If I were in Cameron’s and Osborne’s shoes, I wouldn’t, personally, be prepared to be landed with the task of clearing out Labour’s Augean stables without the means and the mandate to do so.
So if Cameron were to be in a position where he doesn’t have quite enough seats to form a stable government, I would favour doing two things. Firstly, carrying out a full and detailed examination of the public finances and potential savings, to find out in detail exactly what needs to be done, and secondly going to the country after a few months to ask for a proper mandate to do it.
In the event that the second election did not produce the necessary result, it would be better to step back and let Labour take the inevitable flak; they would be wiped out soon enough in a subsequent panic election after the full horror of what they have done to the public finances finally became plain to the electorate. The slow and painful process of rebuilding under a responsible government could then belatedly begin.
276 - Why do I have a vision of Brown the day after the election throwing a strop and saying “its MY ball and no one else can play”
273. Dear old Dogface and dear old Halfwit ! Sometimes I wish I was back in there.
Re Floater’s link at 268. Didn’t fall in love with Sue Reid’s article but nonetheless the pictures said enough.
Warsi is a heroine and the cranks who hate her need to be highlighted and downsized in terms of their pernicious influence on Muslims in particular and the debate in general.
This is why I opposed you,tim, for the very first time on the substance of Cameron’s intervention at PMQT.
He may have got it wrong but he got it right !
278- I thought he already had, the Sun seem to be backing us at least!
I really dislike the word “denier” in the context of global warming. The deliberate overtone of h0locaust denier is disgusting.
Ted is quite right about the way in which environmentalists should approach green issues. If David Cameron - or any other politician - can get that message out effectively, there are a lot of votes to be won with that message.
281- more James II then, throwing the great seal into the Thames as he sails away to exile?
Ps Did anyone see that knob on Radio 4 today banging on about islam and all muslims shoudl live under sharia law? He even said that muslims shoudl automactically support any muslims fighting Britain becasue the koran says muslims shoudl never fight with disbelievers.
I didn’t notice many protesters trying to stop him airing his views on the bbc however (where were you Peter Hain?) despite it being a fair bet that his views are more extreme and fascist than Nick Griffen lets say
282 - In getting it wrong he allowed the beards to get it right, when wrong.
Warsi is fantastic, the Mail says she was forsed to take refuge.
Not on the film I saw, she was up for it in honorary Manc style.
280
A victorious Labour could not ditch Brown.
He wins and it’s ‘Gordon Brown: five more years!’
286 - Yes, that really is one of lifes great mysteries.
Harry’s place is a must read as they will and do point out the hypocrisies on the left over this subject.
Re: 280 - Thank you for the response, Richard. I’m interested in your views on a Hung Parliament. I’m far from convinced that it would be as you say. I do agree that an issue-by-issue drift would be a disaster but I can’t see why David Cameron couldn’t offer to negotiate a two or three year programme of agreed legislation focussing on getting the public finances under control.
There would have to be compromise but there’s nothing wrong with that - we have to do it sometimes in life, I can’t see why politicians always take the “it’s my way or no way” route. I would like to think Cameron is a pragmatic man.
It seems strange to me that while some in your party clamour for a GE and claim there’s no time to be lost in tackling these issues, your scenario would delay the implementation of meaningful action for months.
I realise you are a Conservative and want a Conservative Government with a working majority and that’s fair enough but if you don’t get it I don’t understand why you want to walk away and are not prepared to at least talk to others who may not agree with the totality of your viewpoint but with whom there may be enough common ground to move forward ?
David Davis is spot on with regard to climate change. Unfortunately Cameron cant do a thing about it.
Just when the first doubts are being widely expressed in the media, following the perloined e-mails, Dave is stuck with his global warming (GW) belief.
To change now would upset all those believers in this new religeon. Many millions of Britons are now thoroughly brain washed with pseudo GW science and any change would be percieved to be a betrayal.
The only thing the tories can do is this; once elected thay can gather the evidence to refute or indeed support GW if they so wish.
288 - Warsi reduced Griffin to a laughing stock, the BBC should set up her in a debate with Anjem Choudary as well.
Richard N
I agree. Hung parliament would be a disaster, but if it does happen with tories as biggest party, Cameron should govern as a minority government. Only long enough mind to show people the true scale of the fiscal position then call another election.
If people still can’t face up to the dire fiscal position, then c’est la vie, we deserve what we get.
280. But the second election will be fought under a form of PR, remember. Assuming, and I still think it’s a big assume, that SOMEONE on the Labour side manages to cobble a coalition with the LD’s, that’s going to be a pretty firm condition.
And wouldn’t the other condition be St Vince as Chancellor? How about Darling as PM, Clegg as Deputy, Vince as Chancellor? After all, it’s not likely to be 300 Lab + 20 LD’s is it? More likely 250 Lab 75 LD’s!
(Runs and hides)
292: I personally feel that a hung parliment would have to lead to another general election in short time.
297. Yes, definitely.
297 - agreed
296: There would be a good chance the lib dems would compeltely fall apart. Any Lib Dem in the SW/South will not be looking to jump into bed with Labour without a huge risk to themselves personally at the next election.
294 Warsi is a hero we can all cheer. Why on earth is she not running for Parliament?
290
to 282, RN.
Is it the numbering again, or just DTs?
Anyway, a returned Labour government would embark on the next swaithe of social engineering under the guise of recovery.
It would need to impose more drastic measures than a Conservative government, merely to claw back some credibility.
There may not be anything worth conserving if the Conservatives don’t win the next GE -
but there may be not much that they can conserve even if they do win.
301 - Another Cameron mistake.
Looking at the new Lib Dem tax proposals I can’t see them going down particularly well in London and the South East:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/libdem_tax554b.jpg
304. It’s OK there will be some new ones in a week or two.
I’ve always thought Cameron to be a liberal Conservative - would not be surprised if he’s not really Lib Dem plant. What if he fails to achieve the electoral success that most people believe is likely. Tory knives will be out. Is there anyone lurking in the background to prevent a Davis enthronement?
292 Stodge - For purely pragmatic reasons, not dogmatic ones. Clearly the top priority would be what’s best for the country, but the problem would be whenever any specific painful measure were proposed, there would be howls from the affected groups and the other parties in the (probably informal) coalition would find it impossible to resist capitalising on this. Even with goodwill on all sides, that is always an unstable and unpredictable position.
In reality, it’s even worse than that, since in practice Cameron would require support from the LibDems. The Mark Senior wing of that party is sufficiently influential to ensure that the LibDems could never be a reliable partner for the work which needs to be done.
(All the above is only my own opinion, of course - other Conservatives may see it differently.)
Re: 297 & 298: No, it doesn’t. A Hung Parliament is perfectly manageable and can serve out a full term.
The best way for it to work would be for a programme of legislation to be agreed in advance by two or more parties representing a majority. It’s not difficult to do - it would be the process prior to the Queen’s Speech.
It would NOT be a formal coalition with shared ministers unless that was agreed. It would be an agreed position on an agreed set of legislation.
On less contentious issues parties would vote as they saw fit. Yes, the “Government” might be defeated a few times but not on issues of substance or of course confidence.
There’s no reason why even if parties are working together on an agreed programme, they can’t continue to operate as independent entities even to the extent of fighting each other in by-elections and other contests. Parties in coalition blocs stand against each other in other countries.
301.Because as a PPC, she would not then be able to be part of the Shadow Cabinet with the higher profile that brings. She is far more effective in her current role.
Nice, real nice.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/baby-p/6702791/Ofsted-officials-ordered-to-wipe-Baby-P-emails-note-shown-to-judge-may-suggest.html
“Ofsted is facing fresh claims of a cover-up over the Baby P scandal after a High Court judge disclosed evidence apparently suggesting inspectors were ordered to delete crucial emails about the case.”
“Officials were allegedly instructed to wipe any messages with references to “Baby P” or “Haringey” from the watchdog’s hard drive to prevent them coming into the public domain.”
301
Why is it a mistake? If she were a mere PPC only me and you would probably even know about her. She can be very influential from the Lords (and is).
Works for Mandelson.
Today’s PMQs will be a real test of character for both Cameron and Brown. Most fascinating one for weeks.
Interesting to see that the ecofascists have learned nothing from ClimateGate.
Here’s Lord Stern - who isn’t a scientist, of course.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/6701828/Climate-change-sceptics-are-muddled-says-Lord-Stern.html
…the degree of scepticism among ”real scientists” was very small.
So we have the appeal to authority argument - unfortunately, the authority in question is that of people like Phil Jones. Who are ‘real scientists’, anyway? There don’t seem to be many at CRU.
… evidence for global warming came from a number of sources including ice cores which went back as far as 800,000 years into the past
So here we have the straw man argument: deniers insist the climate has never changed, but 800,000 years ago it was different, so they’re wrong. See what he did there?
“I think it is very important that those with any kind of views on the science or economics have their say”
Unfortunately, Lord Stern, your fellow ecofascists don’t agree with you. On the contrary, they think that only those with the same views as themselves should have a say. Dissenters should be lied to, smeared, threatened, and be illegally denied access to data.
Lord Stern has nothing to say on why, if the science is so compelling, the creeps at CRU found it necessary to fabricate the supporting data.
307.Richard, I completely agree with your view on this issue.
310. F
I wonder if they went to the CRU for a series of tutorials?
308: But what if they don’t agree…Vince wants rid of trident..Brown (or more likely Whoever) doesn’t. Vince comes up with a half-baked scheme, Brown disagrees.
what if half the Lib-Dems vote against a government bill…yadda yadda yadda.
“Here’s Lord Stern - who isn’t a scientist, of course. ”
Yeah, not like Melanie Phillips or Nigel Lawson. Oh.
Re: 307 - No, I don’t accept that. I think there is or could be considerable common ground between LDs and Conservatives on issues such as tackling the public debt.
I certainly think there is enough so that Messrs Cable and Osborne (and others) could bring a jointly-formulated set of proposals to the HoC. Of course, it wouldn’t have everything the Tories want nor everything the LDs want but it would be a start and as we’re frequently reminded, this is a problem that can’t wait.
Remember, this is NOT a scenario in which the Conservatives are the largest party and can form a minority Government. This is the situation where Labour is the largest party and Brown has walked away having failed to form a Government.
307. I agree Richard - any kind of arrangement with the Lib Dems would be fundamentally unstable, as well as distasteful. Unless we could organise it so they actually split, of course,,,,
309/311 - She should have been the Tory Candidate in Henley when Boris stood down.
It was less than a year after she was ennobled
ConHome reports that Sir Peter Tapsell has been re-adopted to stand next year. 99.9999999999% he will be the new Father of the House
317
If the tories aren’t the largest party then I don’t want them having anything to do with government. I would guess about 90% of tories will feel the same. Your whistling in the wind with that scenario I’m afraid.
317. Stodge - no way will your scenario take place. If Labour are the largest party the Lib Dems will jump into a coalition with them immediately. You may not like that idea but the probability of it must be 90%+.
308 It would depend how hung it was. If the Conservatives had 310 plus seats, then I think Cameron could govern quite effectively. Yes, there’d be disappointment at not winning an overall majority, but a gain of 100 seats on 2005 isn’t to be sneezed at, and the party would be well-disciplined, in a situation where each vote was vital.
Under 300, and I think it becomes a whole lot messier.
257 a bit late sorry
I think Polywell fusion has the better chance. Invented by Bussard IMHO one of the great theoretical physicits
“It was less than a year after she was ennobled”
If she was already ennobled, how could she stand for the Commons?
Thank God for the seeding in the WC.
There may well be some tasty looking betting opportunities once the draw is made.
Look for the price on the Second seed drawn with South Africa to shorten swiftly. South Africa are terrible and a lack of a WC campaign has left them among the weakest of the qualified teams yet as holders they have a top seed place.
Will Prince Rupert rally to (Brown’s) banner ?
by fr December 2nd, 2009 at 10:39 am
What to a presbyterian?
And anyway isn’t Prince Rupert of the Rhine, nephew to Charles I, in Cameron’s lineage?
326 - I of course mean hosts.
317 stodge - Maybe I’m wrong about how the LibDems would react, and of course it would certainly be worth exploring the scenario you paint. But personally I wouldn’t be optimistic; the over-the-top attacks on the Tories by Huhne and others, and the easy ride they have given Labour, don’t inspire confidence that they are serious about beginning to repair the damage Labour has done.
325 - Foresight.
326. David Roe - “South Africa are terrible and a lack of a WC campaign has left them among the weakest of the qualified teams yet as holders they have a top seed place.”
It’s political correctness gone mad !
I reckon that anyone who is thinking of not voting Conservative because of Lisbon should consider how they’d feel waking up to a Labour/Lib Dem coalition with David Milliband as PM, Clegg as foreign secretary and Mandelson as Europe minister. It would be the Europhile perfect storm, five years for the most sickeningly Europhile weirdos in Britain to do as much damage as they possibly can.
330, you mean that thing which stops people selling gold at a historic low, and pre-announcing it to depress prices lower?
Or is it the thing that stops people cutting funds for helicopters whilst the country is at war?
326. I’m sure the officials can be prevailed upon to make sure they don’t go out in the first round and endanger the tournament’s takings though.
265. Ahhh we are getting somewhere now. Antifrank hits the nail on the head here. Talking to a scientist friend who is a biologist and has studied population patterns in species he said it is likely that in my liftetime or my children’s lifetime the human population will reach a peak (call it year E) and that from that year E the human population will decline as in more deaths than births. Given that the population of the planet is 6.5 billion currently and expected to rise to 10bn by 2050 this doesn’t seem to be that far “out there”
with re: climategate…..like Europe I just wish some of my Tory colleagues would consider that they will have no ability to change anything if they stay in opposition.
I believe we need to think seriously about how much resources and energy we use especially in the affluent western countries as we should aim, just like to our public finances, to live in a sustainable way.
Re: 321 - Ok, so it’s all about power and nothing to do with wanting to put the country back on its feet or provising good governance. You also forget that the Conservatives could well have polled more votes than any other party even if they win fewer seats than Labour.
You and your party would happily walk away from that mandate just because you wouldn’t be able to have everything your own way - quite unbelievable !!
Re: 322 - Oh dear, how sad. Poor Runnymede is still stuck somewhere in the 1980s with his silly old-fashioned ideas. Well, that’s fine, the rest of us will just carry on with life.
It should be compulsory to post this song in every David Davis thread:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsqYihgo0AI
Johnson really has been handed a poisoned chalice hasn’t he
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6702323/Police-overtime-to-be-cut-by-a-fifth.html
“Alan Johnson will risk a fresh war with the police today with plans to slash officer overtime by up to a fifth and cuts to back room staff.”
Gordon not still banging on about 2investment” is he?
335- “with re: climategate…..like Europe I just wish some of my Tory colleagues would consider that they will have no ability to change anything if they stay in opposition.”
Amen.
321 - If the Tories are not, at the very least, the largest party after the next election, then that will be a disaster for them from which it is difficult to see how they will recover. If they cannot defeat a clown like Brown, what chance do they have of ever winning power again?
Still, it’s all academic. They are still on course for a very healthy majority. Brown is their single biggest weapon.
333: Indeed..there would be a very strong push for the UK to join the Euro in that sitution I reckon
(thats if they’d have us at the moment)
313. Precisely, David.
Stern’s view, Lawson’s view, Phillips’ view, Phil Jones’ view, your view, my view, the view of the alcoholic Scotch expat shouting at himself in a pool of urine down the street from my office - they’re all worth the same.
In building the “consensus”, everybody gets one vote each.
And that’s what the ecofascists can’t stand.
Sorry that’s @ 316
336 - My biggest reservation about voting Lib Dem (which is currently approximately a 60% chance) is that they might indeed jump into bed with Labour in the event of a hung Parliament in which that is a feasible option. Explain to me why I should not worry about this.
333 - I believe sir that in some circles that would be called a “slam dunk”
Nicely done
“Stern’s view, Lawson’s view, Phillips’ view, Phil Jones’ view, your view, my view, the view of the alcoholic Scotch expat shouting at himself in a pool of urine down the street from my office - they’re all worth the same. ”
No, they aren’t. Some views have more weight, you see.
Re: 329 - Thank you for a more sensible response, Richard, than from some of the Tory supporters on here.
I would accept that some of the language used hasn’t helped but a lot of it is party political knockabout and of course a number of LDs have the Conservatives as their main challengers. I think under Nick Clegg we have seen a change of emphasis back toward equidistance.
Of course, it was as difficult for the LDs to respond to the emergence of Cameron as it was for Labour and I think there was a period when no one quite knew how to respond. After all, Cameron went out of his way via the “lovebombing” to try and pull away LD supporters - how does a party respond to that ?
I have always believed that Europe could again be the issue to divide the Tory party and lose them votes in the General Election to UKIP.
I now believe that Climate Change could be another such issue to divide which would lose them votes to LibDem or even Labour.
Psephologically the LibDems can gain in both cases as a high UKIP vote in Con/LibDem marginals can give he seat to the LibDems.
Of course the sceptics may behave till after the election and then cause Cameron trouble.
stodge
It’s not all about power, quite the reverse. If it were just about power I would advocate anything that leads to the illusion of power. I don’t.
The largest party by seats should form the government. Call me old fashioned, but other parties cobbling together to oust the largest party is deeply cynical.
The only scenario where your posts come into play are where tory and labour are very close. Say 282-280. The chances of which are vanishingly small.
346. Yes, but not in the way you mean.
The views of law-breakers and fabricators, for example, carry less weight: none, in fact.
344. How silly you are, stuck in the 1980s
Of course despite Stodge’s outburst, the reality is clear enough for anyone to see.
The Lib Dems have propped up Labour in Scotland and in Wales. Their leaders are personally close to Labour figures and many are ex-Labour people themselves.
They spent most of the 1990s and early 2000s working hand in glove with Labour to oust Tory MPs, including sharing resources and even activists.
The extent of their collaboration in the run up to 1997 was so great that OGH, a Lib Dem himself, refers to their former leader Ashdown as a traitor.
And of course on key policy issues the Lib Dems remain close to Labour and the Lib Dems continue to spend most of their time attacking the Conservatives.
Proof beyond reasonable doubt m’lud.
344. How silly you are, stuck in the 1980s
Of course despite Stodge’s outburst, the reality is clear enough for anyone to see.
The Lib Dems have propped up Labour in Scotland and in Wales. Their leaders are personally close to Labour figures and many are ex-Labour people themselves.
They spent most of the 1990s and early 2000s working hand in glove with Labour to oust Tory MPs, including sharing resources and even activists.
The extent of their collaboration in the run up to 1997 was so great that OGH, a Lib Dem himself, refers to their former leader Ashdown as a tra*tor.
And of course on key policy issues the Lib Dems remain close to Labour and the Lib Dems continue to spend most of their time attacking the Conservatives.
Proof beyond reasonable doubt m’lud.
Paul Waugh thinks Cameron might go with Sarkozy’s remarks.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/sarko-runs-rings-round-us.html
Very high-risk if he does - though might be worth it. The problem is that he will be bashing the French; always good - but also defending those evil bankers.
352: Is Vince closer to Labour, or the Tories?
Which party is more likely to give them PR?
The answer to those two questions are the same by the way.
319. Perhaps she doesn’t want to be an MP?
Does anyone know if she’s expressed an opinion on the issue?
Harry’s Place:
‘Scottish TUC: More Religious Sectarianism, Please!’
http://www.hurryupharry.org/2009/12/02/scottish-tuc-more-religious-sectarianism-please/
“Yes, but not in the way you mean.”
That’s excatly the way I mean. The context of the person giving the views accords how much weight one puts on it, for example, whether the person is a journalist or a scientist with 20 years experience, or, indeed, a scientist witha record of falsifying data. This is howver contrary to your post in which you state that the views of all are worth the same. They aren’t.
“The problem is that he will be bashing the French; always good - but also defending those evil bankers”
Darling has said much the same in the Times today, so it would be hard for Brown to come back on those points.
352. On that issue it is worth remembering that there are some very senior City people who have David Cameron’s ear.
347 stodge - There’s a whole separate question there about the LibDems’ positioning. Briefly, I think Clegg has been trying to get that right, but from the outside it looks as though the implementation has been poor. Bashing the Tories wasn’t very effective, but even when it is effective it alienates one group of LibDem targets (Tory/LibDem waverers,) without giving the Labour-leaning waverers a positive reason to vote LibDem rather than Labour.
What the LibDems should have been concentrating on IMO is love-bombing disaffected Labour supporters, the message being ‘we share your values, but Labour has betrayed you’. Done skilfully, they could have got across that message without significantly damaging their support from Tory waverers.
Instead, the messages have been too mixed and too inconsistent, combining stridency and lack of clarity, and time is running out fast.
Peter Lilley is 11th on the order paper for PMQs - will he get a question, and if so, would he embarrass Cameron on climate change?
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmagenda/ob91202.htm
348. I see we have a minor epidemic of new posters parroting the same ‘climate change is a Tory vote loser’ line today. What a coincidence.
355.It is ironic to consider that had the planned bombing of Glasgow International Airport succeeded in 2007, those very Palestinian flag-wavers would have instituted a ‘krystallnacht’ on not only Muslims, but on anyone with a brown skin.
To think I used to cheer for Celtic.
Guido not overly impressed with Cameron.
http://order-order.com/2009/12/02/new-aussie-opposition-leader-defeats-climate-tax/
Perhaps it is time to take the gloves off at PMQs and leave Brown on the floor rather than on the ropes.
347: I think under Nick Clegg we have seen a change of emphasis back toward equidistance.
Possibly from him but that’s no way replicated by local members (I don’t know enough to comment on the marke-up of the parliamentary party) who in many cases appear to be stuck in an 1980’s timewarp where all Conservatives are baby-eating monsters and Mrs Thatcher is the beast in the wardrobe.
As an aside: let’s assume for sake of argument that the vagracies of the system means that Labour wins a slim majority is there going to be a sufficient turnover of MPs in its safe seats to make up for the talent gap or will we look back on the glory days of Ainsworth as DS?
352 W
Clegg on R5 y/day was blithely talking about the voters ‘getting their own back on bankers’…
365. I see a misplaced consonant.
John Hutton - why exactly is he retiring?
He’s one of the very best of Labour.
344. Antifrank - I believe Nick Clegg has clearly stated that in the event of a hung parliament the LDs would endeavour to support the party which nationally wins the most votes. I would be very surprised if the Conservatives did not get more votes than Labour in the forthcoming GE.
368 - There is a lot of confusion about this. Vince Cable used the formulation “most seats”. And this begs the question as to how eagerly the Lib Dems would seek to cut a deal. The regular retreat into the Lib Dem activist zone of Tory-bashing may cheer up the hardcore, but all it does is tell me that there aren’t many Lib Dems who would like to do a deal with the Tories.
Incidentally, I would rather like a Tory/Lib Dem coalition in a hung Parliament, if one could be engineered.
Excellent Pakistani guest on the Daily Politics. A brilliant edition so far.
368 - that’s what he has said; but it’s more realistic that he’d support the party more willing to give him precisely what he wanted.
370: There is a computation where Labour have most seats, but lesser votes.
I don’t think the tories can win most seats with less votes.
Clegg recognises that people who vote Lib Dem are not the same as Lib Dem activists and that aligning in a coalition with either party would drive away important segments of support. So he is taking the sensible stand of “it’s the voters choice”, saying he’ll will not vote down (rater than positively support) the party that wins the most votes in a hung Parliament.
Even then this will put huge strain on the coalition that exists in the Lib Dems, with the left/SDP wing unlikely to be happy with a Cameron led minority Government and the trad Liberal wing unlikely to support a Labour one without huge sweeteners.
222 “Has Cameron lost the election in the last few weeks?”
He wins whatever happens imo. Seems to me the economy is only being held afloat by QE, wishful thinking and the belief among rich people on yachts that the Tories will sort out the British government’s books. If he loses too much support on the right through being too PC then i’d imagine the drift to a hung parliament will lead to some kind of economic crisis which will firm up Tory support among centre voters.
Swings and roundabouts.
370. It is of course also possible that Clegg might go through the motions of trying to cut a deal with the Tories but soon sadly announce that policy differences were too great (Europe, PR etc) and then turn to Labour instead.
I certainly wouldn’t set much store by any assurances he makes prior to an actual election, if I were you.
44. Lib Dems do not jump into bed with Labour, this is the Cons Central Office therme, ignoring all the places where there are Con/Lib Dem and Lib Dem/Con coalltions in the country, especially the West Midlands.
373. Less than a 5% Tory lead, and Labour probably gets more seats.
All round good egg, Robert Key, my MP for Salisbury (Wilts) has just announced he is standing down at the next GE on health grounds. He leaves behind a projected Tory majority of 9K over the LDs.
377. But David a few councils where these coalitions exist do not come close to counterbalancing the long list of large-scale Lib Dem/Labour collaborations over the last twenty years.
There are also a few places where the Conservatives are in coalition with Labour. So what? All that tells you is that different localities sometimes have peculiar local political dynamics.
re 377. Exactly Rod. That’s the dilemma facing the Lib Dems. Supporting Labour which had 5% fewer votes but more seats would be highly dangerous for Clegg because it would make a total mockery of the whole fair votes approach.
A PMQs that challenges Cameron.
367 wibbler - John Hutton - why exactly is he retiring? He’s one of the very best of Labour.
I think you’ve answered your own question.
Another planted first question.
GB sounds up for it…..
380 - Clegg was very clear on Marr that the acid test was most VOTES equals strongest mandate equals first right to seek to govern on their own or with others. He was asked subsequently whether he definitely meant votes rather than seats and confirmed he did.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out (though I still suspect a sizeable Tory majority is more likely). Personally, I think there would be much less resistance to a Con/Lib deal on the LD side than some assume, but I admit that my experience is mainly in southern Lib Dem seats not the northern battlegrounds where there would be more concerns.
381. Not really - Clegg could simply argue that going into coalition with Labour would be more likely to bring about a fairer voting system.
Good question from Cameron - GB sounds bullish.
Has Gordo just made a mistake re recession?
Oh dear, Gordo about to lose it
Oh god GB on his tractor statistics again.
Gordon appears to have stepped back in time - how bizarre
Gordo, what a tool!!!
Balls in “ultra marginal” !!!
cameron nailing him on the economy
Dweeb-tastic either side of Brown…
Gordon Brown has some good lines today.
Pantomime season today! All good fun.
Bradshaw
OOhhh the tim line being deployed
And batted straight back…..
“The more he talks the less he says”
Blimey, that was a rare direct hit from GB.
He’s humiliated Dave with that!
Kick in the teeth for DC on Zac Goldsmith
Blimey, lively today, however Cameron is sounding slightly arrogant regarding his ‘marginal’ comments
Oh Gordon, you absolute tool
First outright win for Brown for ages.
Easy win for Gordon today, too easy.
He’ll think he’s invincible now and the election’s in the bag…
Another Brownie, he said that Spain is now a member of G-20. That is not what the G-20 website says.
http://www.g20.org/about_what_is_g20.aspx
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20
This is good; a full blooded return to the class war.
Fun all round, I’d say. Much heat, not much light, some good lines on both sides.
How did the cost of DCs IHT go from £1billion in one answer to £2billion in the next from GB.
Our PM is seriously incompetent.
I thought Gordon did pretty well if you like that sort of thing - personally I find it a real turn-off.
Will the headlines be “pm’s 3 biggest claims on economy are his 3 biggest failures” though?
408. Labour still aiming to prevent a drop below 200 seats. No change in strategy - rather confirms the hung parliament hype is just that.
I find it infuriating to listen to Brown because I can hear the more easily-persuaded voters agreeing with his easy lines. It’s easy to sell all those nice things like “help for families”, easy to bash millionnaires.
407 Indeed. I really don’t like it at all.
Well done Dave.
Manages to tie himself to Inheritance and Goldsmith.
Mr Speaker implying that Labour backbenchers are drunk ?
Clegg asks a good an important question. Labour morons drown him out.
405 - and the BBC and Red Robbo will be exultant - “Brown’s path to a fourth term started today…”
Now Brown’s toying with Clegg.
Must be some good pills he’s on at the moment!
406 - thats why I said had he made a mistake
If he is wrong its gonig to be on all the news bulletins later
Brown won clearly. Partly due to a good performance from him, but also because Cameron made some errors. The marginal talk sounded arrogant, and he could’ve but didn’t expose Brown’s lies regarding support by the Tories for bank recapitalisation (proposed by Osborne before Labour) and wasted his last question.
Yet again MPs barely stay silent for Clegg’s tribute to fallen soldiers. I get sick of this happening week in week out, whatever one’s views of Clegg as politician more respect should be shown
414. You might want to take a more generous view of the intelligence of the voters. I find they tend to be quite good at sniffing out bullsh*t.
406. They were admitted to save Brown’s economic skin I think.
However PMQ’s does indicate that Mr Campbell is back in Number 10.
It depends…
There is nothing in the FPTP “rulebook” that says the party with the most votes must form the government [UK 1910, 1923, 1929, 1951, 1974, many examples abroad including US 2000]
And under PR there are even more frequent examples, with coalitions of minorities beign the norm, often excluding the largest single party.
For the LibDems to support Labour for frivolous reasons or for nothing in return would be suicide, but there are circumstances where it might be acceptable, e.g. where a full coalition could be worked out.
That is the whole logic of PR systems after all…
timmo December 2nd, 2009 at 12:16 pm “How did the cost of DCs IHT go from £1billion in one answer to £2billion in the next from GB.
Our PM is seriously incompetent.”
It must be the effects of the fall in house prices over the last 2 years which has er reduced the number and value of the £1m+ houses and therefore there will be less IHT to come in and er….. under Labour’s tractor spreadsheets the number is rounded up to the next billion!
(Shurely shome mishtake? Editor)
Some Labour nobody in a marginal fishing for votes.
421 Miliband spent the whole time chatting to someone across Jowell during Gordon’s response to Clegg - appalling, like school children.
356. In principle some views are worth more/less. In practice, none are.
If someone were a recognised expert on climate change, whose data have been checked by provably independent reviewers, whose models have produced accurate predictions and thus been validated, and with whom nobody disagrees, their view should count for more.
Unfortunately, that’s just the Drake Equation all over again. Since ClimateGate, no such person can be assumed to exist because none of the ifs can be estimated.
So we have potentially three sets of view on the reality or otherwise of MMGW.
1/ The set of people who fraudulently misrepresent, conceal, or falsify data;
2/ the set of people who know nothing or almost nothing about climate science; and
3/ the set of people who are reliable experts in climate science.
The views of people in set 1 are worth nothing. Those of people in set 2 are also worth nothing. The views of people in set 3 would in theory be worth something, but it now appears that set 3 never comprised more than about 40 people, and may anyway be simply a subset of set 1.
I think that captures where climate science and the MMGW “consensus” are this week.
A good PMQ’s. Cameron back on the economy thank goodness.
Brown’s self-confidence seems to have been restored and that matters a lot.
This comes as Cameron’s confidence seems to be on the wane.
The critical thing as ever is how it’s reported.
Apologies for raising IHT but it makes me angry when Brown says the Tory plans help millionnaires. Any rise in IHT thresholds helps everyone with estates over £350,000, i.e. anyone with a family house in the South East. Any if reducing IHT is so bad why did Labour try to copy the Tories’ plans straight away.
It must be very tricky for the Tories… they have to design their policies not just to stand up to fair scrutiny but to stand up to complete misrepresentation by Brown with the aim of kidding the public.
I’m just glad Renee Witherspoon got a mention.
A set up Q on climate change
This Chris Ruane bloke should get more of an airing.
Is Europe a key election issue?
Only for nutters .
Is climate change a key election issue?
Even for other nutters.
Brown’s obviously not listening to the governor of the Bank of England.
424
If i were considering voting LibDem, I would expect them to give an indication of what they would do in a hung parliament. This must be clearly stated, or they cannot morally claim that my vote would give them any kind of mandate to act in a particular way.
If they supported Labour in a hung parliamnet having said during the campaign that they wouldn’t for example, how could they claim any legitimacy for that course of action when many of the votes they got would not have been cast had voters known their full views.
Clegg will come under the spotlight surely if the polls continue to inexplicably show that Brown might not be resoundingly kicked out
Is Spain in the G20?
more spending lined up for PBR?
oooh the French issue raised
430 Mike - Brown’s self-confidence seems to have been restored and that matters a lot
Yes, that is a key driver. The low point of Labour’s fortunes, around August 2008, was when Brown looked as though he were about to have a breakdown. The high point, during the financial crisis, was when Brown seemed at his happiest. It’s slightly hard to disentangle cause and effect, of course, but I think the state of Brown’s (and Labour’s) morale is crucial.
Having said that, Brown often makes his worst blunders when he’s over-confident.
Cameron has lost his composure. It’s a bit disconcerting to see it happen so quickly.
What is he talking about - we’re at the heart of EU so that’s why Sarkosy said Gordon had fluffed it
Brown is even more hubristic than usual today.
Like Humpty Dumpty, he is heading for a big fall.
Re Spain / G20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G-20_major_economies#Membership
” Spain (10), Netherlands (16), Belgium (20), Poland (21), Sweden (22), Austria (24), Greece (27) and Denmark (29) are included only as part of the EU, and not independently”
Is that not playing fast and loose?
440 What you mean saving the world was a mistake
Ah Malcom Bruce asks a question. One of the LD grandees not standing down at the GE. Only 11.1% of LDs are standing down. Compared to 16.7% of Conservatives and 20.5% of Labour.
430. Brown is one of those people thats either in the pit of depair or he’s virtually bouncing off the walls. How long will his current “up” last until? My guess would be February!
Much more interesting is the mood of Labour MP’s. They seem to have become demob happy to me. I guess they know they are stuck with Brown come what may. Those in marrginal seats know, I would guess, that they won’t have a job by the end of spring. So, they appear to making the most of being MP’s while they can.
441, although a below par performance, it wasn’t seriously bad. Cameron hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for a while. It didn’t matter when Brown opened every sentence by stating he was Spiderman but it’s more important now.
The Tories need to have a proper PBR response, and work hard over Christmas.
It is worth remembering though that they have always maintained a poll lead, and it’s usually in double figures.
re 444
In 2009, there are 20 members of the G-20. These include the finance ministers and central bank governors of 19 countries:[2]
Argentina: President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Australia: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd
Brazil: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Canada: Prime Minister Stephen Harper
China: President Hu Jintao
France: President Nicolas Sarkozy
Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel
India: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
Indonesia: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
Italy: Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi
Japan: Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
Mexico: President Felipe Calderón
Russia: President Dmitry Medvedev
Saudi Arabia: King Abdullah
South Africa: President Jacob Zuma
South Korea: President Lee Myung-bak
Turkey: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Gordon Brown
United States: President Barack Obama
The 20th member is the European Union, which is represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank.
443. I look forward to the PBR and I presume an epic tractor-stats and fibs defence of it by the PM.
438 - nope. I trust Brown will be apologising to the Commons?
441. Does it really matter? It may improve the morale of a few of those around him, but I doubt it will shift many votes.
Slightly better performances at PMQs don’t register with many voters, nor are they likely to offset the intense accumulated dislike of Brown.
Cameron needs to get back to basics at PMQs - strip out the cockiness, the waffle, the baiting of Gordo and Balls and of Labour backbenchers, and just ask the PM a series of short and incisive questions, then sit back whilst Gordon refuses to answer them and waffles on about something unrelated. Then hit him with the killer final question, with the headline news soundbite.
Keep it simple!
Brown crossed a line today. We know he has ordered his creatures to stoop to class warfare (C & N, etc) but this is the first time I have heard him explicitly throw ‘Eton’ at the Tories.
As a comprehensive boy, I find the idea that a Prime Minister of Britain would encourage hatred of people because of their family background for electoral gain repugnant.
He thinks he’s found a dividing line but what he’ll discover to his cost is the decency of the British people.
Sir Peter Tapsell wins at PMQs!
453, I agree, Mr. Sykes.
444 - That’s what I thought…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_G-20_London_Summit
Wonder if that will be coming back to haunt him?
Brown seems a little more lively at the moment and the back benchers seem to be reacting a bit more positively. That is important for his chances of survival. Cameron does seem to be wandering around a bit too much… Time to get some focus.
444 - That’s what I thought…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_G-20_London_Summit
Wonder if that will be coming back to haunt him?
Brown seems a little more lively at the moment and the back benchers seem to be reacting a bit more positively. That is important for his chances of survival. Cameron does seem to be wandering around a bit too much… Time to get some focus.
441. I did’t really see Cameron lose his compsure. I thought he came back with a very good question on Labours IHT position - Which of course Brown didn’t answer.
Labour are putting far too many eggs in the IHT basket.
451 -He better correct it fast or the press will swiftly be pointing it out for him.
Economic genious not knowing the G20 membership?
446 TC. What 0.1% Lib Dem is standing down ??
455, stopped watching after Cameron’s last question, what was Sir Peter’s?
301 “Warsi is a hero we can all cheer. Why on earth is she not running for Parliament?”
Apparently, she represents mainstream muslim opinon so she should be a shoe-in a muslim area.
Andrew Neill pings Labour lie on Spain.
459
“The playing fields of Eton” will be the soundbite on the news, I’m not convinced Brown is wise to go down that line.
431 - The more you have the more the Tories give you and the Osbornes and Camerons have a lot.
And if Dave is going give away free kicks like he did today, Brown strangely looks in the mood to boot them into the net.
Another David December 2nd, 2009 at 12:30 pm “438 - nope. I trust Brown will be apologising to the Commons?”
When hell freezes over, is when Brown would admit he is wrong.
DP viewers hate Labour rowdiness.
IMO
Cameron has been an utter failure in opposition on all issues that matter.
1. The EU/NEW WORLD ORDER.
2. Exposing The CO2=AGW scam, for what it most certainly is.
3. Protecting civil-rights.
4. Preserving prosperity.
Therefore he can not be trusted to do so when in relative power, neither does he deserve to be.
Many conservatives will rightly believe that there is little point voting Conservative when there is now NOTHING left to conserve worth conserving. If Cameron and the higher ends of his Party had cared about these issues, we would not be where we are now. Which is nowhere going nowhere but DOWN in one hell of a rapid hurry.
I will vote for anyone but Labour, Lib/Dem or Conservative. For they are all clearly responsible for the death of British democracy, prosperity and freedom. Crimes which should neither be forgotten nor forgiven.
We should now feel free to vote for ANY political party that most closely represents our own thinking.
As I have said before WE HAVE NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE. Therefore why should we take responsibility for electing a government that can NOW only ever end up making things eternally worse?
We must however vote for someone,or our now non-existent democracy will become ever more so. We must fight fire with fire. To fight dictatorial tyranny, we need a dictatorial tyrannical leader dedicated to the end of remote and secretive pan-national government. Cameron is not such a leader, and his Party are not such a Party.
454 - agreed, hence my 403 (and I grew up on a council estate)
The Spain lie was quickly picked on by Neill, suspect there’ll be more on that.
Spain isn’t in the G20.
455. The striking thing is that Labour are still pursuing a core vote strategy which has been shown to have no resonance at all in marginal seats - as Crewe and Norwich showed. The stench of death remains overpowering.
437. The problem is that in a hung parliament, no-one has a mandate to do anything, but nevertheless something must be done for the Queen’s government to continue…
That involves compromise and acting in the “national interest”, whatever that appears to be once the parliamentary arithmetic becomes clear.
The closest analogy was Heath in Feb 1974, who emerged with fewer seats than Labour, but struggled on for 72 hours to try to build a “Unity” government. He failed, but was quite entitled to try, and it’s a great “what if” had he succeeded…
461 Morris Dancer
He said 300000 troops were necessary ages ago - and now wants the PM to resign in shame.
463 - Knew it, what a numpty (Gordon is)
463 - Cameron missed the chance to do that.
I thought he was supposed to be smart.
I see Tom Harris remains in the dog-house. He called for Brown to stand down, asked a friendly question and got a one word answer. Ouch….
Good line on inheritance tax -pointing out that Brown is the only one of the two to have actually raised the threshold.
Brown better than usual but that’s a pretty low bar to get over. He is, though, still doing what he always does - spounting his own pre-prepared anti-Tory diatribe regardless of the question. The difference is that he is doing so with more confidence than of late.
I thought the Eton playing fields line was an indication of the class-ridden bile to come from Labour, alas.
BTW, Wibbler you are spinning like a top for Labour. Subtle, you aint. Cameron and the Tories are hardly in meltdown.
454 Gaz - Alice Thomson in The Times seems to me to be exactly right on what Labour’s strategy will be:
His ministers may discreetly be making inquiries to headhunters but the Prime Minister has had a new burst of energy. He finally seems to have decided how he wants to handle the Pre-Budget Report next week and if that works, the general election.
Mr Brown knows that this time he cannot run a Tory tax cuts versus Labour spending campaign; instead it looks as though he has decided to return to class war. “The rich always betray the poor,” will be his theme.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6939808.ece
Done well, it could be quite effective; but I expect he’ll go ridiculously over the top as usual.
468, Mr. Shrugged, I think you’re being a silly sausage.
1. Cameron voted for a referendum. Without a majority he could not do more.
2. I happen to agree that global warming is probably bullshit.
3. He’s strongly against ID cards.
4. He hasn’t been in government and Labour have for over a decade. I’m unsure why you’re so down on Cameron, given he hasn’t been in power. What do you expect him to do?
Iain Dale says this is Gordons best ever PMQ’s - shame about the little fib then (oh and the naked class warfare)
430.Only caught the end of their exchange today, and the last words were ‘the playing fields of Eton’, will catch it full later. Hearing Brown utter those words made me cringe.
469
I’m a council estate lad as well and despise the imaginary class war Brown wants to invent.
476, Brown makes a factual error and this is proof Cameron isn’t clever enough? Interesting use of logic.
430
The “Brown Bounce” is now gathering momentum I have serious doubts whether David Cameron has any desire to be Prime Minister after todays abysmal performance.
And the next opinion poll please
480 - which Labour frontbenchers are poor then?
Dare I also mention 10p tax rate and the scandalous treatment of troops by Labour (those troops not generally being Eton toffs).
484 - yep, to coin a phrase beloved of the left “not in my name”
481: Core vote…motivating die-hard labourite should give a short term bounce in the polls..
It’ll destroy Labour in middle england though.
479 tholster
Yes, you are right. I am a Labour shill. You have rumbled me. Congratulations.
tim December 2nd, 2009 at 12:37 pm “463 - Cameron missed the chance to do that. I thought he was supposed to be smart.”
Maybe tim the smart move is to leave it to the media to correct the Brown mistake about Sapin? That could have far more impact.
Zac no longer a non dom
485 not logic MD, pure timbot spin (you know, non Labour voting timbot)
486. LOL!
480 - That strategy will not work on its own.
It worked effectively today because.
1.Cameron sounded arrogant.
2.Cameron carried on talking about Inheritance.
and most importantly, people were laughing at Cameron.
Thats the killer, make people laugh at Daves Mates.
However, if it just forms part of a core vote strategy it will not make more than a couple of points difference.
The key is to add strategy like the voting reform referendum to it and let Camerons stumbling on other issues be picked up on his own backbenches.
467. “DP viewers hate Labour rowdiness.”
That does not surprise me, they are nearly always badly behaved, but today the response to Clegg was disgraceful. They quietened down when he offered condolences but immediately shouted over him speaking when he asked a question about Afghanistan.
Guido on the case re Gordo’s little error.
259 The experimental fusion ITER reactor at Cadarache is not in operation, but under construction. It is not due to come into operation until 2018. It is proposed that a demonstration fusion plant would be built (DEMO) that utilises data from ITER in its design. It is intended that DEMO will eventually lead on to a prototype and commercial designs.
Deployment of fusion on a commercial scale is several decades away.
URGH - who is that pillock on DP? Doing the class warfare bit…
whats probably clear though is that labour have made their bed…go with Brown, go hard and nasty and negative.
The Tories (all of them) need to be ready and to counter that.
Some pure fantasy on here today.
“Cameron carried on talking about Inheritance.”
Indeed.Pointing out your chum Gordon was the only one so far to raise the threshold. Presumably you were happy with that.
I’m a bit confused, Tim. Should I be worried about DC being arrogant or lacking in confidence ?
499. is it Brian Cox?
Daily Politics running one of the most negative attacks on any party ever! From Brian Cox and its against the Conservatives. Still this is the BBC.
504 Indeed - DOUBLE URGH
I tell you what Labours endless banging away about classk warfare, toffs and IHT reminds me of - Save The Pound! Labour are going to appear weird and very single issueish if they keep obsessing about this one topic.
Sky centring on the chimpish behaviour of labour front bench.
“Still this is the BBC.”
Be fair, they gave the SNP an hour long PPB last night on BBC2.
Will Straw made the same claim on his blog that Spain was a member of the G20, Guido picked him up on it the other day which lead to a grovelling apology by Master Straw Jnr.
Odd the Gordon Brown should make the same convenient mistake today?
http://order-order.com/2009/12/01/two-left-feet-what-is-will-straw-smoking/
Not good from Cameron today. Really should have picked up on Gordon’s mistake regarding Spain,and he has simply got to pin Gordon down on the parlous nature of Britain’s finances and not get distracted by the IHT issue.
The more Mr Cocks [sic] is a tool. No wonder he described himself as an outsider - I’d have nothing to do with him.
483. Only Labour would argue that having had the best education Britain can offer makes you unfit to be PM.
Only Labour would further argue that a postman could make a useful PM.
And only Labour could argue both the above while itself preferring selectively-educated white male toff heterosexual leaders who in the present case weren’t elected.
511, the Spanish issue is minor, but he could’ve and should’ve slammed Brown’s pre-recession and in-recession policy failings.
511. Actually, its important for the Tories to counter Labours lies over IHT.
Anyone still watching DP? Look at Harman’s website and see if you can see a reference to her private schooling.
Sky also picking up on Gordon’s lie on Spain. An odd report overall by Joey Jones, calls it a strong performance by Brown but shows all the pictures that are negative for Labour. I’m sure the display of Sadiq Khan’s chimping about, cheering, waving his order paper will not go down well in middle England.
Gordon Brown, caught lying. Again. Will the man ever say anything truthful?
I see Brown’s G20 mistake is flashing across the blogosphere looking at the PoliticsHome ticker at the top. From the Guardian website:
“Downing Street says that Spain attended these meetings as a “full participant” and that it is anticipated that Spain will continue to attend G20 leaders meetings in this way. That’s way Brown claimed it was now a member.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/dec/02/pmqs-gordon-brown
515 - They can’t.
Its a massive own goal.
And Cameron today showed how unable he is to counter it, he’s like a tennis player with a weak backhand waving a sign above his head saying “Don’t hit it down the backhand side”
519 - I was in no doubt that a goalpost-moving way of bringing Spain into the G20 and thus proving Our Glorious Leader correct would inevitably be found.
How Orwellian..
If DCs briefers were any good they would have alerted him to the Spain angle (as per Will Straw).
Or perhaps they thought Brown wouldn’t be so stupid as to make the same mistake as Straw Jnr - in which case they overestimated him.
The way forward for Cameron is to talk more about Conservative policy instead of only about the failure of Labour policy.
Does the Prime Minister support a tax break for startups, to encourage job creation? Why has the Government not implemented a National Loan guarantee scheme? etc.
514 - Thinking about it, Brown’s retort was comic in any case. Basically he was saying we’re in the bottom two countries in the G20, whereas in fact we are in bottom place. Either way, it’s hardly anything to boast about, and he’s now contrived to give this failure more publicity than it would otherwise have.
517. Middle England really don’t give two hoots about one individual PMQ’s. PMQ’s is important in two ways;
1. It helps set the tone of the way politics is reported by the media (though the polls are far, far more important)
2. It can help build a narrative/assocition with an issue, if say Cameron raised a certain point week in and week out.
But otherwise we put much more importance on PMQ’s than it actually. On here we really live in our own little bubble, where everything is either brilliant or the whole world is falling apart (this is mainly for the Tory supporters on here, but Labour supporters are also prone to excesive mood swings at times) and tiny issues that are of no consequence to 99% of the British public are magnified into possible poll changing importance.
520, aye, so massive Labour went into an election two years ago with a 10pt lead. My mistake, that’s the exact opposite of what happened.
And Cameron’s stupid because Brown got Spain being in the G20 wrong.
Any more pearls of wisdom strung together on a necklace of irrational class warfare and partisan idiocy?
I like how Cox said in the studio that he ‘tried to be even-handed’ and wasn’t trying to be anti-Tory per se, just anti private education. His report had begun with the comment ‘there is a serious risk’ of a Tory government coming to power next year. How very even-handed, indeed.
Just popping in to see the reaction. You Tories really need to calm down. You’re like Corporal Jones. Even the normally level headed ones come across quite shrill today. I won’t name names. I guess us lefties are made of sterner stuff.
Well we’ve had to be of late.
Mixed metaphor, tim. The pictures of Labour rowdy behaviour, the Gordon lie, Gordon’s chortling when Tapsel mentioned British troops sent without adequate equipment all results in:- today’s PMQs = Sheffield Rally.
528. Who is Brian Cox? Does anyone care?
528.Have you even bothered to read this thread, thought not.
523. Prime Ministers Questions isn’t really the platform for the leader of the opposition to talk about Tory policy. Thats the one tactic Brown would love - All Prime Ministers like to turn the questions back on those doing the questioning.
530. He’s a Labourite Hollywood Luvvie from Dundee.
520 TIMBOT, the glimmer of light you can see at the end of the tunnel is actually a large freight train heading towards you, rather than electoral salvation. Don’t get too excited.
524. Indeed like a Wolves fan mocking Portsmouth!
226 - All I can assume is the private Conservative polling has showed that the class war approach being taken by Bullyboy Brown will not have an effect in the seats that they need to win.
It also gives the righwing press a free hand to investigste & attack the public school educated & IHT avoiders in Labour.
* * * NEW THREAD * * *Woody has spotted the difference. AC is back in the bunker and what a difference it’s making. I wonder if he’s being paid? He’s worth more than Coulson. All those betting against a Labour majority might want to reconsider.
Funny how Neil failed to highlight that Hutton was a Grammar School Boy (Westcliffe CHS), who went onto Magdelen College Oxford.
Some new seats up at Ladbrokes:
Barrow & Furness
Conservatives 8/13
Labour 6/5
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Hyndburn
Conservatives 8/11
Labour Evs
Liberal Democrats 100/1
BNP 100/1
Warwick & Leamington
Conservatives 4/7
Labour 5/4
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Weaver Vale
Conservatives 1/2
Labour 6/4
Liberal Democrats 50/1
Can tim explain why Cameron’s face went green rather than red today?
Is this indicative of Cameron’s victory at PMQs or is it just that my TV set needs adjusting?
I agree the next 5 months are shaping up to be a monumental battle in so many ways. I believe it is vital Cameron wins. Firstly he needs to keep his feet on the ground and in touch. Some like to claim that what is mainstream are things like the EU but Cameron’s main success has been to get the party to talk more about issues like health, schools, jobs and poverty. This is what ordinary people talk about and vote about. Conservatives have come up with lots of new ideas and the central conservative message about empowering communities has never been more important and more relevant. I accept he sometimes goes off a bit too much on what might be termed middle class Notting Hill isssues but although they are not my obsessions I can more than forgive that when you look at his bigger efforts and focus. The monumental battle is to beat Brown and beat the forces that would knock him of course. If Cameron focuses on the main issues that most people do vote about (neither windmills at one end of the scale or the EU at the other end of the scale) and he can communicate a coherent agenda in a consistent way he will deserve a strong mandate. He is essentially a family man with a more moderate and caring approach and I think he can do it. He has shown considerable determination to date and has kept cool under pressure. It is going to be a fascinating 5 months. The alternative is for the heavy hand of the state to win despite wrecking the countries finances and failing to reform our systems.