What does YouGov Scotland say about a “hung parliament”?
November 25th, 2009
House of Commons Research paper
But how important was it going to be anyway
The latest YouGov poll of Scottish opinion has added to the growing narrative about a hung parliament. For the shares it found north of the border had Labour back at 2005 general election levels suggesting that the party is not going to suffer the losses that many had been predicting.
The shares from the survey were comparisons on the last Scottish YouGov poll - CON 18%(-2): LAB 39%(+9): LD 12%(-6): SNP 24%(-2). So compared with the general election Labour are the same, the Tories are up 2,
With a sense of the media mood this is creating here Steve Richards from today’s Independent writes “A poll at the weekend, showing a significant narrowing of the Tory lead, has slightly challenged the settled mood. Another one yesterday suggesting that Labour was gaining ground in Scotland makes another nudge against the consensus that the Conservatives are marching towards a solid majority.”
The problem with this is that it’s Tory seat totals - not Labour ones - that will determine whether there’s a hung parliament and although the blues had one or two Scottish hopes the key battles are going to be in England and, increasingly, Wales as well.
And the message that the Tories might not make the progress they would have liked in Scotland was one of the key surprises in September’s massive Politics Home marginals poll.
So while the jury might be still out on that Ipsos-MORI poll this YouGov poll does not reinforce the notion that there could be a hung parliament. In fact it could be the reverse.
I know that I annoy one or two of PB’s SNP regulars whenever I write this but a no-change Labour share in Scotland with little Tory progress suggests disproportionate moves elsewhere - and it’s south of the border where the next UK general election will be decided.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
1st?
2nd
When dining with the devil…………….
Mike, ask them how they were not alerted to a duff result, when their 63 people polled in London gave a large Labour majority, if you or they can be bothered.
My original hypothesis is of questionable legality. But that does not make it inaccurate.
Also ask them if they had heard of the ‘Hung Parliament’ narrative, and were they aware that the newspaper was looking for a Hung Parliament poll?
Tories in Scotland == Liberals in England 1950-70
Dontcha just love First Past The Post?
4. No. FPTP is like a huge exciting party for one night and then a long headache and hangover for four years.
5. The Tories were eviscerated in Scotland 12 years ago. I can see them remaining at Heinkel Bubble-Car levels for at least another 12 years - if not for the forseeable future….
6. The Honourable Tory Member for “those oddments left over after the last boundary changes in Scotland…” arrives at Westminster….
http://www.tomstrongman.com/ClassicCars/Heinkel/Images/01drive.jpg
6. The Honourable Tory Member for “those oddments left over after the last boundary changes in Scotland…” arrives at Westminster….
http://tinyurl.com/yk9ktdw
Surely a 9% rise from one poll to the other should be treated with caution? I guess movements inherent in small sample sizes.
It depends whether “a rise in Scotland=a rise in England”, or if “large Labour score in Scotland=doing worse elsewhere”.
Remember Labour GAINED seats in Scotland in 1979.
If there was an element of sympathy being generated for Brown by the Mrs Janes/Sun brouhaha, leading to a poll bounce for Labour, then that would have been greatly amplified in Scotalnd, where Brown is significantly less unpopular. It would have been “one of their own” that was being picked on - and I can see how that would help polarise the Labour vote.
And maybe the news of the massive secret loans to Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS that saved them from obliteration will play well for Brown and Darling in Scotland too. Although I doubt that will be confirmed by our usual correspondents…!
Mike may be right about the way to interpret these polls, but I’m not sure he’s giving the alternative argument a fair shake, so here goes.
The nationwide Mori poll, if correct, would point to a Hung Parliament. But its Labour share was way out of line with what everyone else was getting, including ICM who polled on the same day, raising the suspicion that it was a rogue. So the key question was whether other pollsters would also get a rise in the Labour share.
Since then we’ve had two polls. ARS didn’t find anything of the sort, but it’s new on the scene, doesn’t have much of a track record and has been getting very different results to everyone else from the start, so the default assumption would be not to trust it. YouGov, which has a very good track record, got a rise in the Labour share. But they only polled Scotland, so we don’t know whether what they picked up there was a purely Scottish phenomenon or something that, had they polled the rest of the UK, they’d have picked up there as well.
We’ll have to wait for some more polls to be able to say with confidence what’s up with MORI. My current guess would be:
A movement to Labour
…especially in Scotland
…that’s mostly temporary
…exaggerated by sampling error
But I don’t think Steve Richards is being unreasonable in calling the YouGov poll “another nudge against the consensus that the Conservatives are marching towards a solid majority”.
As I am sure Stuart Dickson wull say when he has finished his porridge , those are not the comparisons with the latest Yougov Scottish poll as they carried one out just a few weeks ago for the Scottish Greens although there were no Westminster voting intention figures in that poll just Holyrood .
It is more interesting to go back to the Scottish polls conducted prior to the 2005 GE
System 3 average of 3 polls Lab 44 SNP 23 Con 15 LD 14
SOP March 2005 Lab 52 SNP 17 Con 16 LD 12
Yougov June 2004 Lab 37 SNP 22 Con 17 LD 16
Yougov Mar 2005 Lab 33 SNP 20 Con 19 LD 20
Not very accurate at forecasting the result of the 2005 GE were they ?
Just one little thought - do all pollsters use the same definition of London? We know, for example, that most of inner London voted Livingstone in the last mayoral election, while the suburbs voted for Boris. A poll that saw London as being the 0207 and 0208 areas may legitimately produce one that saw London as, say, the bit of the UK inside the M25. OK, I’ll get my coat ….
- “I know that I annoy one or two of PB’s SNP regulars whenever I write this but a no-change Labour share in Scotland with little Tory progress suggests disproportionate moves elsewhere - and it’s south of the border where the next UK general election will be decided.”
Huh?
I have been reading and contributing to PB for 5 years (and was for years the ONLY “PB SNP regular”), and I have never seen an SNP commentator get “annoyed” about such a claim.
In fact, I’d say precisely the opposite! I have been saying exactly what you say: “a no-change Labour share in Scotland with little Tory progress suggests disproportionate moves elsewhere”!! I have said it several times in fact.
Of course the next UK GE is going to be decided by English voters! In fact, that is part of our point about Scottish independence: we Scots can vote any way we like, but the colour of the Union government will always be decided by English voters, whatever we may say.
We are far, far better governing our own country, in our own national interest.
Mike, that “straw man” gibe was below your usual high standards.
I can believe labour are doing better in Scotland, that’s been evident since conference season. That has nearly zero relevance to the GE result. Neither does it change the Mori being an outlier.
11 Edmund in Tokyo. “ARS has been getting very different results to everyone else”. Suggest you check your facts befure talking nonsense. October 16 - Con lead AR,Ipsos and ICM all 17%.November 5 - Con lead AR,YG and ComRes all 14%.On the evidence, it is Ipsos that is “very different” (not exactly “new on the scene”). The next few polls will be crucial,suggest we wait and see whether the hung-parliament theme is wishful thinking.
Lessons in not to beat up women; why not lessons for women in not murdering your boyfriend? http://tinyurl.com/yg8lod9
Svejk @17, look at the “Others” scores.
“The next few polls will be crucial, suggest we wait and see” is exactly what I was saying…
18 I think, generally, people are taught that murder is wrong, as they are also taught that beating up people is wrong.
There is though a continuing issue with domestic violence against women, and anything that could help reduce that should be welcomed.
19 Edmund in Tokyo. You really think a difference of (say) 5 points in “Others” makes AR different from all the others? Weird.
Is it wrong to think all these people complaining about overdraft charges are no different to those people who complain about speeding fines? The idea that I’ll have to start paying for ATM withdrawals because they don’t like paying for taking money they haven’t got doesn’t’ fill me with joy.
Whether there’s a hung parliament or not depends entirely on how many seats the Tories win, not how many Labour lose (assuming we ignore the propect of Labour retaining an outright majority).
Consequently, the results from Scotland will have minimal impact on that outcome. At the very best, the Tories might get close to double figures; at the worst, we could be back to 1997. The difference to Cameron’s overall majority between those two outcomes is less than 20.
As another Scottish wipeout is unlikely if the Tories have gained over 120 in the rest of the UK, and a top-end result in Scotland is improbable short of a nationwide landslide, the impact around the critical region of 320-330 seats of the plausible range of Scottish results is small.
22: Yes..I don’t have incredible sympathy for them. They knew the Terms and Conditions (or should have done).
Of course the media (esp the Beeb) love the story, innocent poor stupid people vs evil big banks.
Great….until everyone get charged for taking money out via cashpoint or has to pay for having current accounts.
Maybe the thread title should be ‘Does Scotland Matter?’
Have to say I’m not sure it will in GE2010. England & Wales is most likely where its at.
20. Men are victims of domestic violence too. Something like a quarter of all domestic violence cases are female on male (a figure which ignores the fact that men are far less likely to report this sort of thing) Isn’t that an “issue” worth addressing?
Sorry, but this idea that domestic violence is a “women’s issue” is one of the things I dislike most about our modern PC society, and has been something of a hobby horse of mine ever since a friend of mine who was hospitalised by his girlfriend got laughed out of the police station when he tried to report it as an assault. Men are supposed to be able to stand up to women, apparently.
26, not had direct or indirect experience of it, but we covered it briefly in university (did psychology on a course run mostly by feminists with 95% girls taking it). Interestingly, the woman who took that part of the course asserted that the numbers (of victims) were approximately equal between the genders.
My sympathies to your friend.
26 Sorry, but that is poor logic. Three quarters of domestic violence cases are male on female, and apparently it’s not a women’s issue? Do me a favour. There is “PC” and there is desperately trying to find “PC”.
I’d have no problem with better education of female on male domestic violence, but that does in no way mean that this particular attempt to address domestic women is wrong and should not be encouraged.
Quick question….now domestic violence is to be covered in school classes…whats being removed to allow the time to cover it? Theres only so many hours in a school day.
Every social ill or problem seems to be met with. ‘this will be covered by education in schools’, well are they extending school times to make the time for it?
6. RodCrosby - “… if not for the forseeable future…”
The biggest mistake in the long history of Toryism in Scotland (trivia: did you realise that the Tories largely sided with Bonnie Prince Charlie, against the Whiggish Hanoverians) was when they quite literally gave up in 1967, and just merged the Unionist Party into the English Conservative Party. Things have been grim for them ever since.
BUT, I do foresee a big improvement in Tory fortunes in Scotland: post independence. But they’ll have to ditch that poisonous word “Conservative” first. How about the “Moderate Party” -> has a bit of pedigree in the politics of the Kirk.
Out of interest, since I wrote my Saturday column, the odds for the Brown-Cameron option on Party Leaders at the Next GE Betfair market has come in from 1/3 to 2/9 and the Cameron as Next PM has also improved in liquidity.
A bet made a week ago on either could now be laid off at a reasonable profit. Perhaps they weren’t so boring after all!
By contrast, the Con overall majority and Con Most Seats have both drifted, though only very slightly.
30. Given the chance, I’d rename the party ‘Tory’. ‘Conservative’ is far too long anyway.
Tory might appear to have an even worse reputation than Conservative but that’s mainly because it’s usually used only by opponents and hence in contexts that suit them. There’s a long and proud history in British politics of taking insults given by others and wearing them as a badge of pride (Tory and Conservative themselves being two such).
25. Yokel
Scotland might not “matter” to people in England, Wales or NI. But it sure as heck matters to Scottish voters, irrespective of whether they are nationalists, unionists or couldn’t-care-lessists (a larger group than most non-Scots realise).
25 As David says Scotland only matters on the margin for the Conservatives, it is indeed England and Wales where Cameron will win or fall short.
It probably matters more to the Liberal Democrats. With their support down to nearly half of its 2005 levels in Scotland it is likely they will lose 4-5 seats to SNP, Tories and maybe Labour. The drop in Lib Dem votes in other seats while perhaps not changing seat totals much could see an unexpected churn in which seats are held by Labour & SNP.
Poor showing in Scotland could be echoed in Wales and South West and any firming in Labour support in North East and metropolitan areas could limit Lib Dems winning Labour seats to counterbalance losses in Scotland, Wales and South West.
Quite conceivable IMHO that 2010 could see both Labour and Lib Dems overall losers.
33. clarification:
I meant that “couldn’t-care-lessists” could not care less about the constitutional status of Scotland, not that they could not care less about Scotland itself. Nearly all Scots, from throughout the political spectrum, care passionately about their country, and want to see it prosper. We just disagree about how best to achieve that goal.
28. Read my post again. I said three-quarters of *reported* cases, and observed that men are far less likely to report it (or, as in the case of my friend, to be believed when they do try to report it). Studies into this have shown that men are less than a third as likely to report domestic violence as women are, which fits in well with MD’s anecdotal evidence at 27.
Domestic violence isn’t a gender issue.
Svejk@21: Absolutely. Especially in a situation where a Labour recovery, if there is one, is likely to be coming from a combination of others and non-voters.
I’m not saying AR is wrong - it may turn out that they’re right and everyone else is wrong. But that’s a substantially different picture from what the other pollsters are getting, and it makes their poll less convincing as a refutation of the Mori one than if we’d had - say - a full UK poll from YouGov. Hence the need - which I think we both agree on - for some more polls before we can be sure about what’s going on.
In the meantime, to show that the Scottish YouGov doesn’t provide a data point supporting a swing to Labour in the UK as a whole, I guess you’d want to show that either:
a) The YouGov swing to Labour (I think it’s since August?) was what we’d have expected even before the Mori swing was supposed to have happened.
or
b) Scotland moves in a completely different way to the rest of the UK.
Maybe someone can show (a) by crunching some numbers from the PBHome poll or something.
Jack Straw: new House of Lords to be elected by proportional representation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6637551/Jack-Straw-new-House-of-Lords-to-be-elected-by-proportional-representation.html
I second Slackbladder @ 29
However bad, domestic violence, racism, environmental degradation (choose your modern social ill here) is, schools are supposed to be about education. We can teach the little beggars not to create CO2, beat their womenfolk, or call their classmates “n*gger”, but we can’t teach them to read or write.
Yet those that do emerge able to put pen to paper, to calculate the weekly budget, and to read high brow literature like PB, are also those least likely to indulge in said anti social behaviour.
So why not just educate them, and they will work out the rest for themselves.
Clearly Conservatives are not doing as well in Scotland as the rest of the country but I wonder if there is a very big shy Tory element there given some of the issues raised in this thread and previous threads.
OT. I’ve just flicked through yesterday’s thread. There can’t be many political blogs with so many contributors at ease with ‘Schrodingers cat’!
Good Morning Pained Liverpool FC Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. a few random thoughtlets on the Scotish polling :
Polling Scotland is a bloody nightmare. The samples tend to be small and trying to get an accurate sample probably requires the services of half a dozen Nobel prize winners combined with the luck of a winning Euro-millions top prize winner.
Further caution is required because support for the Lib Dems and Tories is heavily concerntrated - You’re as likely to find a yellow perilist or blue rinser in some parts of the central belt as you are to find Mike Smithson as president of the Rod Crosby Appreciation Society !!
Accordingly I’d be especially cautious about North British polling. The track record is very mixed and results need to read with a basting spoon worth of salt. Beware !!
I wouldn’t be surprused if the Conserevatives stage a recovery in Scotland AFTER Cameron has become PM.
I think the only thing that will allow the Tories to recover in Scotland is for the Scots to see what Cam does in power. I believe Cameron will absolutely bend over backwards to please the Scottish in his first term and he’ll be extremely accomodating of Salmond and the Scottish Parliament.
Scotland may well be the only region of the UK where the Conservatives vote improves in 2014/2015 over 2010.
37. EIT
This is what Antony Wells at UKPR had to say about Mori:
“In MORI’s poll last month which showed a 17 point Tory lead, amongst those who voted in 2005 32% said they voted Conservative, 43% Labour and 16% Liberal Democrat. In this month’s poll which shows a 6 point Tory lead the figures of recalled 2005 vote break down as Conservative 29%, Labour 46% and 16% Liberal Democrat – so a 6 point change in the recalled lead from 2005. (For reference, ICM weighted their sample so recalled 2005 vote was Conservative 33%, Labour 38% and Lib Dem 22% – even they don’t weight to the actual figures because of false recall).”
Adjusting the Mori result by the ICM weightings gives:
Con 42
Lab 26
LD 23
Almost all of the most extreme polls over the last two years have been from Mori because they do not weight for past voting behaviour.
When I first read this, my eyes goggled
http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/11/25/do-not-fear-a-crooked-shadow/
I somehow get the impression it’s not “the” Sarah Brown though.
another richard @44:
Right, that’s why I said that part of what they’re getting’s sampling error. But why not quote the next paragraph too:
“However, this does not explain the whole difference. If you look at the rest of the survey’s innards, there is real movement in Labour’s favour too.”
How to save millions from the NHS budget: scrap all publicly funded homeopathy
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/blog/2009/nov/24/homeopathy-science-technology-committee
22 & 24: The casual way in which many people in the UK think little of overdrawing their account without prior agreement is in marked contrast with the other side of the English Channel. In France there are serious consequences to unauthorised overdraughts. If I recall correctly, those who incur a second unauthorised overdraught can be declared an “Interdit Bancaire” which bars them from having a cheque book or equivalent for several years.
Sorry, OT
22 and 24. Yes you are, David. The several billion pounds taken in what will soon be confirmed as unlawful deductions from bank accounts is probably what subsidised your free cash withdrawals for the last 8 years. You should thank the complaining whinging lot for saving you money, David.
The lazy inefficient can’t-manage-money-for-toffee banks were a charity, not an industry and couldn’t even make their money last to the end of the day, never mind the month, without you an I secretly loaning them £61billion, never mind the £100billions we’ve pumped in since.
The feckless banks want to divide consumers against each other and will be delighted that instead of challenging the banks to be efficient and competitive in order to provide ‘free banking’ (and the banks haven’t a clue how to do this because of the charity bucket cash cow the charges brought in), one set of consumers starts having a go at others diverting attention from the banks. The banks acted as a cartel and will also be doing so should they all now decide to introduce charges for banking in the future, you should be attacking the banks for even hinting at doing so and encouraging the OFT to prevent it.
FWIW the real issue is the level of the charges, they were massively, disproportionate and revenue raising; the banks automatically could have refused all requests for deductions from accounts where there was no money without incurring *any* costs at all. If there’s no money nothing should have happened. Instead, they all agreed to make money out of it, and £billions.
They decided to simply turn it into an easy and anti-competitive cash machine. They were charging £30 a return, plus daily fees while that £30 fee caused an overdraft and these were (to begin with) charged in real time on a daily basis (not at the end of the month) which had the cumulative effect of *kerching* starting the same cycle all over again the next month. Easy money.
24. Slackbladder, you miss the point entirely. The law (rightly) protects consumers from unfair attempts to foist terms and conditions by a big business on a customer which are blatently unfair and where the imbalance in the bargaining relationship (especially where all the others providers in the cartel have the same terms and conditions!) means that the contract is not formed in a fair, equal relationship. That’s what today’s judgement is all about.
If all of the banks have the same terms and conditions and there is no effective choice for a consumer then to say ‘they knew the terms and conditions’ is irrelevant. One of the problems, by the way, in the current case has been the inability of either side to pin down any one set of terms and conditions that might have applied at any one time, and they changed and continue to change on a monthly basis at least.
We rely on statutory rights in consumer law beyond contractual ones, thank God (such as Goods should be of merchantable quality and services should be provided with reasonable care and skill).
If the Court goes the way of the OFT today and the OFT decides they are unfair, then effectively those terms and conditions did not and do not exist. You should be saying: the banks knew the consumer law at the time they levied the overdraft and returned item charges, am I wrong in having no sympathy for them when the courts say they should not have deducted them?
You should be demanding a competitive, efficient banking system to ensure you don’t pay for cash withdrawals. The banks will be delighted with your comments. The banks haven’t a clue how to operate in the normal world of the rigours of the free market.
Perhaps the strong likelihood that millions of customers will be receiving a quantitative easing of several thousand pounds each in the run up to the election will cause a certain amount of envy, but the target of your concern should be the banks, not those who are likely(quite legally and effectively relying on the amended the terms and conditions) simply to have a forced unlawful loan repaid with interest. You should be happy for them.Go for the banks, David and Slackbladder.
This will have political implications, and is likely to turn up at PMQs today. Will Gordon insist on a swift payout in full of all bank charges deducted from customers over the last 8 years automatically and without request? Will Cameron? Will Clegg?
I was recently in Aberdeen with relatives and at a dinner party of overwhelmingly professional people there wasn’t a Tory present. Even the feckless wife of a wealthy oilman-whose obsession was to be reunited with Harvey Nicks in Edinburgh-dismissed the Tories as ‘awful’.
I think it’s difficult to imagine South of the border what a loathing there is for the party of Thatcher. You’re either Labour or SNP or not interested.
44: Yes, but you can’t only take the bits of ICM that suit your preference (well, you can but you shouldn’t!). ICM doesn’t take only certain-to-votes, which still benefits the Tories in MORI, and it doesn’t have the public sector bodge that MORI uses to dampen one aspect of not weighting for alleged past vote.
It’s simply very difficult to compare polls with different methods - all you can easily do is compare trends. The trend in most polls, though not Angus Reid, has been for a small hardening of the Labour vote and a small softening of the Tory vote - in short, a bit of Crosby swingback. MORI and YouGov’s Scottish poll were important because they appear to show a potential for a more drastic recovery after some quite minor positive events. I doubt if it’s been sustained after a tough week but punters may want to cover themselves against the possibility of it recurring.
46. EIT
There was movement to Labour between the last two Mori polls but the previous one would have given C44, L23, LD26 if adjusted to ICM weightings ie a low Labour number.
There might be a Labour imnprovement in Scotland due to disillusionment with the SNP government but there doesn’t appear to be any real increase in Labour support elsewhere.
51. I see there’s no end in sight to this hung parliament ramping
NPMP
I would have used the Mori 6-10 if I knew them but I don’t.
If at their next poll Mori oversample previous Conservatives by 10% and undersample Labour then we’ll have a set of headlines of ‘Conservatives lead by 25%’.
Will they accurate? No.
Off to work now, byeee!!
Some speculation about how the BoE hid their £62bn prop-up of HBOS from the markets
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002192/how-the-bank-of-england-made-62bn-disappear/
THOUGHT OF THE DAY!
I still maintain my stance that it is folly to panic, on the back of 1 Mori poll. Having seen the ARS poll, I will wait for 2 weeks and another 2-3 polls have emerged (ICM in particular) then I will comment and conclude how I think the Land Lies.
But having seen a number of articles in the papers again today, with journo’s pushing a hung parliament possibility. I think a very high possibilty is that people and the markets could see fear of Labour getting back I’m, consequently this could give a boost to the Tories in the coming weeks!
I may be wrong, but I think it is quite likely, remember we have the PBR in early dec as well!
51. This is exactly the Labour mindset which keeps Gordon Brown in place.
“they appear to show a potential for a more drastic recovery after some quite minor positive events.”
Gordon Brown - 5 more years.
50. “I think it’s difficult to imagine South of the border what a loathing there is for the party of Thatcher. You’re either Labour or SNP or not interested.”
I think it’s difficult to imagine North of the border what a loathing there is for the party of Brown. You’re either Tory or Lib Dem or not interested.
58 I think you meant to say ‘South’!
50: Roger and another one of ‘none of my friends are tory’s’ story.
You should be worried about the company you keep.
Great, if the tories win and have no Scottish MP’s then we know where a lot of savings can be made in Govt spending. I dont see why the Scottish get to have no tuition fees, free old people care funded by the English.
Meanwhile II …. Andrew Grice, political editor of the Independent, reports that some senior Conservatives believe Labour is ready to go the polls in March, thus taking the opportunity of a decent but temporary window in the economic news :
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-believe-brown-will-go-to-the-country-in-march-1826926.html
11. You wonder if in the unlikely event Brown was replaced by an English leader before the GE whether possible boosts to Labour vote share in England would be partially offset by losses north of the border as “one of their own” was removed presumably against his will.
61 IJ. Some might think it novel that the UK government takes office in the interest of all parts of the nation and not just blue parts. Might be an idea ??
Steve Richards on, ‘Hung Parliaments’ pretty much accords with my own views.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-bring-on-a-hung-parliament-ndash-and-the-drama-that-goes-with-it-1826862.html
Life would be interesting wouldn’t it, this site would be in melt down every day.
56
I may be wrong, well, ‘may be’ would be a change from, ‘always’ I suppose.
p.s.
Do something about your name, it ‘aint natural a Tory being called Wayne, like having a King called Kevin.
64: Labour is interested in rural Southern England? I think not!
Hmmm could be a good pub quiz question, ‘What links Blond and Bond?’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1230338/Are-Dave-Co-ready-Red-Tory.html
15. “we Scots can vote any way we like, but the colour of the Union government will always be decided by English voters, whatever we may say”
Except that in 2005 more voters in England voted Conservative than Labour.
But we got a Labour government thanks to Scottish - and to a lesser extent Welsh - votes. And its two most important ministers represent Scottish seats.
As a unionist I don’t necessarily mind that but it’s disingenuous to suggest that Scottish voters have no say.
Morning all and I can see Rod Crosby was having an 0rgasm at 5am this morning in the early part of this thread.
Dont worry about the Scottish Tories, we will look after ourselves and while we may only win a handful of seats at the GE, we will remove 2 cabinet ministers.
As I said yesterday in 2005 even on 15% we were second in 15 seats and it is in those seats where we will be gaining votes next May not in the other 43 which frankly dont matter.
We have never polled remotely as highly in Scotland as the party has done in England. Even in 1983 we were in the 20s when the party was in landslide territory in England.
So dont worry about us. You concentrate on crushing Labour in England and returning people like Anna Soubry with a 10,000 majority and leave Jim Murphy and Alistair Darling to us.
24
Agreed
38
Isn’t this what Billy Bragg was recommending?
(wanders off mumbling)
68 CR Scots conveniently forget that whilst the majority didnt vote Tory in 1979 to 1992, the English didnt vote Labour in 2005.
66 Slack. I never implied they were or were not. My thought is that the voters deserve a government for the many not the few - Hhhhmmmm - Enter Blair stage (centre) left !! …. and certainly not one based on narrow political interest.
UK GDP for Q3 revised up - but only marginally to -0.3% from -0.4%.
F1:
As well as the 2010 title, there’s also a Driver Match Bets market up on Betfair, though no action as yet.
I’ve been a little ill-disciplined and stuck £2 (I intend to make £5-10 bets when better informed) on Massa at 17. I simply cannot believe he is four times less likely than Alonso to take the title.
18. It’s hard to object to that but one does wonder if it implicitly suggests that violence towards men is somehow more acceptable.
Surely schools should simply teach children not to break the law full stop?
60. That’s what I like about the Scots. They have long memories! They don’t quickly forget what a Thatcher government was like. They don’t have the memory span of a gnat. Incidentally if there is any betting on Scottish independence and you think Cameron will get in-put your house on it!
In the view of the most sophisticated electorate on the planet there is a 23.53% chance of a Hung Parliament.
The fact that I disagree is neither here nor there.
71 Easterross. You accidently forgot to mention that in 2005 neither did the Tories enjoy a plurality of the English vote. A small oversight I’m sure !!
How does the SNP position itself in these circumstances? What is clear is that they have failed to pin the blame on Labour for the recession. This threatens both their Independence goals and the Assembly elections in 2011.
64
Re your pained Liverpool post earlier…
Someone texted into 5 live this morning….
Arsenal have Arsenal TV, Chelsea have Chelsea TV, Man Utd have Man Utd TV, Liverpool have the History Channel!
30. I wouldn’t have been a supporter of the Tory party in the early 18th century.
Looks like the, ‘Turnip Taliban’ will have a voice in Parliament afterall.
The backbencher of the year was David Davis, who resigned his seat and his place in the shadow cabinet in protest against the loss of our civil liberties. (He was sent straight back by the voters of Haltemprice.) As he said beforehand, in his slightly wolfish way, the result of the election won’t make much difference to him: “I shall be in opposition, whoever wins.”
What can that mean?
75: I can’t see that a 30min lesson on a rainy tuesday afternoon will somehow stop someone committing domestic violence 20years later….
76 - That prediction from Roger can’t be good news for the Nationalist cause….
I mentioned last night that, after The Mail reprinted The Mirror’s story about Cameron’s Remembrance Day photo-shoot, it was apparent that the two ‘papers’ were colluding in an anti-Dave onslaught. Well, here’s another cut-and-paste job, this time over the claim initiated by Brown at the Gracious Speech that Dave and Ozzy were corrupt:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230758/Families-David-Camerons-shadow-cabinet-set-make-7m-Downing-Street-cut-inheritance-tax.html
50. Or you play your cards close to your chest?
In a random sample one in six Scots (statistically) will be a Conservative voter.
“Tories in Scotland == Liberals in England 1950-70
Dontcha just love First Past The Post?
by RodCrosby November 25th, 2009 at 5:35 am”
Except, Rod, that as soon as the Tories come to power they have promised to gerrymand - sorry, reorder the constituency map, reducing the number of Westminster MPs. The lost MPs will be mainly Labour, so this step will largely negate the FPTP bias against Tories in Scotland, or indeed anywhere else.
Added to that, Tories might just tackle the WLQ, making Scots MPs unable to vote on certain English matters… Thus making Scots Labour MPs seriously irrelevant as well as numerically diminished.
The Tories will be able to do this with impunity because, under our electoral system, they will likely have an overall majority of MPs even if they don’t have an overall majority of votes.
Dontcha just love first past the post?
70. bp “Isn’t this what Billy Bragg was recommending?”
Not quite, if I understand it correctly.
Straw is suggesting direct elections to the Lords with names on ballot papers, probably using STV. Bragg was suggesting allocating seats in the Lords based on national vote share in the Commons elections, I assume using a list system.
I personally favour the Bragg proposal, but only if the list is randomised
Hmmm wasn’t it the consensus of opinion on this site that revision would mean worse?
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/third_quarter_gdp_figures_revised_up_to_03_from_04.html
42. Most of us on here wouldn’t vote for Nick Palmer Jack - do you only address those that would?
71. Absolutely. It is true that more English vote Labour than Scots do Tory but certainly isn’t a one-way phenomena.
78. Incorrect:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/vote2005/html/england.stm
89: No…there was no consensus. It might have gone up or down, but still be negative.
Stop putting words into people mouths.
84. “76 - That prediction from Roger can’t be good news for the Nationalist cause….”
Just this morning there was a story on Today that suggests Roger is wrong.
An SNP voter may be pro-independence but they might be voting SNP as an anti-Labour vote. Scots, just like the rest of us, can and will vote tactically for a whole host of different reasons.
Guido has posted on Fixtheclimatedatagate.
http://order-order.com/2009/11/25/time-to-defund-crus-global-cooling-deniers/
85
Then there’s this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1230691/Seasons-Greetings-David-Cameron-Tories-Christmas-cards-pander-politically-correct-brigade.html
Merry Xmas everyone.
64. Some might think it novel that the UK government takes office in the interest of all parts of the nation and not just red parts.
Might be an idea ??
JackW - you would be much more credible if you directed your criticisms in a non-partisan manner rather than engaging in your favourite hobby of Tory bashing.
Ticker headline on Sky, “UK STILL IN RECESSION”.
80 MTF.
…. Other TV channels :
BLIGHTY - UKIP
Godd Food - Nick Soames & Comrade Pickles
Sci Fi - Lembit
Alibi - Stewpool Jackson
Comedy Central - Conservatives for Nick Palmer’s
Virgin 1 - Nick Clegg (NOT)
Dave - Cameron
Quest - Marcus Wood
UK Gold - Lib Dems
Watch - MI5
Fiver - Value of UK Economy
Zone Horror - SNP
76. Cheers for the tip Roger. I’m betting my house on a NO vote.
Banks win in Supreme Court on overdrafts !!
89. Usual geriatric twaddle.
The consensus on here what that exactly what has happened, would happen: there would be a marginal revision, probably “upwards”, but that the figures would remain shocking, and still leave us in recession long after our competitors have returned to growth.
And so it has come to pass.
A feeble effort, Coldstone. Go suck on a muffin.
96. Economy shrinks less than thought
Retail sales have shown a recent pick up
The UK economy contracted at a slower pace than originally estimated between July and September, figures show.
Third quarter economic output shrank by 0.3%, which was better than the original estimate of 0.4%.
The first estimate surprised analysts by showing that the economy was still in recession and not growing.
Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said earlier there were signs the UK economy had returned to growth in the second half of this year.
Alan Clarke from BNP Paribas said: “We still think there are further upward revisions to come [to the third quarter figures]. I think it will end up at close to zero but it takes time.”
99: in your face irresponsible individuals!!!
Banks win.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8376906.stm
97: Surely the Lib Dems is more Teachers TV.
O/T
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/UEACRU/
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to suspend the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia from preparation of any Government Climate Statistics until the various allegations have been fully investigated by an independent body
89. “Hmmm wasn’t it the consensus of opinion on this site that revision would mean worse? ”
I don’t recall any consensus. But in the press numerous articles suggested that the last quarter revision may turn it positive. +0.1% tells us that they were too optimistic, the quarter is still negative.
85 - Now that Osborne has been prevented from over claiming on the mortgage on his second home, surely it’s only fair he gets a tax cut on any MPs second homes his family will inherit?
106. change the record.
95 Casino. Moi !!! …. bashing Conservatives is hardly a hobby. Rather a dull pursuit in isolation.
I regard it an absolute duty to puncture the puffery of all parties. Sadly you only look upon it from your own blue tinted tower …. and I have to say your lofty perch is looking a rather shabby pile from my humble viewpoint !!
101: ‘“We still think there are further upward revisions to come [to the third quarter figures]. I think it will end up at close to zero but it takes time.”’
Sounds as if our financial experts have been learning a thing or two from the CRU on data manipulation. Clearly people are being leant on to come with the Recession-is-over headline the government has so long been craving.
Alan Clarke from BNP Paribas said: “We still think there are further upward revisions to come [to the third quarter figures]. I think it will end up at close to zero but it takes time.”
by The Ghost of Harry Flashman November 25th, 2009 at 9:48 am
.
Serious question: How often is it revised?
The cynic asks: Is it like EU referendums that they go on revising until they get the number the government wants?
106
yeah because then Blair, Hoon, Morley, Moran ……..
could also share. Isn’tthe risk the biggest IHT beneficiaries all ex Labour - like the Kinnocks ? Brown’s correct, Cameron will know a lot of the IHT winners, they’ve sat opposite him in Parliament.
76 O/T Roger, I watched ‘An Education’ last night and after reading all the hype on this website was slightly disappointed. It’s very good but not great - I think a few posters here have been blinded by the 1960’s nostalgia. Carey Mulligan is definitely an actress to keep an eye on. Rosamund Pike is much prettier off screen! A few niggly production errors. Oscar wise, I don’t think we’ve seen this years big winner yet. If it lives up to it’s promise that could be ‘Nine’.
60. slackbladder - “… another one of ‘none of my friends are tory’s’ story.”
In defence of Roger: he is correct! It is very, very hard to find someone who openly admits to voting for the Scottish Tories.
And I speak as a private-school Edinburgh educated person who polling companies would slot into the “A” social grade. I can’t think of a single one of my friends or family who is openly Tory.
My dad used to vote for Thatcher in the 80s, but he was a “One Nation” Tory, strongly in favour of the NHS, and he hated what Thatcher did to public service. He shifted to Lib Dem at an election or two, and has been SNP for quite a few years now.
I can’t think of any other Tories apart from my sister’s former in-laws, but we won’t go there…
106: ‘…surely it’s only fair he gets a tax cut on any MPs second homes his family will inherit?’
Couldn’t agree more! Outrageous that assets a noble and distinguished family such as Ozzy’s has spent generations acquiring should be seized by this rag-bag of a state. This socialist ‘Grave Robbery’ tax can’t be abolished quick enough in my book!
110. The revision process can go on for years. There will be one more ‘final’ estimate first in a month but past vintages of data are frequently altered long after the fact.
65.Coldstone
Attacking people personally re. christian name is shameful !
Then again, what else would we expect from you.
30. Call the Conservative Party in Scotland the Unionist Party?
Stuart
it’s OK, I can’t think of anyone in my social circle who votes SNP.
108. Not really mate. I am, have been, and will be perfectly willing to severely criticise “my own” party where I feel its justified.
For example: I think Cameron *was* wrong not to split off the Scottish Tory party, taking a photographer to the cenotaph was a big mistake and the NHS policy and EU policy is feeble.
97. That had me laughing!
Hung Parliaments make politicians introverted, talking to each other rather than the public. Since politicians already talk to themselves too much, hung Parliaments are bad things.
113. Maybe that is true. There are certainly plenty of Scots down *here* who admit to being Tories though.
Notwithstanding any of that they are still the 3rd party in Scotland and still take up to a fifth of the vote.
So not dead yet.
100
How do you know I like muffins? In fact I liked, ‘Muffin the Mule’ then they banned it.
Anyway seant as a libertarian, I do hope you’ll be in the vanguard of those who will fight the Tory proposals to ban 24 hour drinking. It might make up for your extreme cowardice when you ducked below the parapet when Boris banned booze on the tube.
121. Not sure I want to start this discussion (again) but that is another reason I am highly sceptical of PR.
110. “The cynic asks: Is it like EU referendums that they go on revising until they get the number the government wants?”
They generally don’t even bother asking anymore.
122
You appear to be implying that all the Scots with “get up and go ” have got up and left !
Is Roger’s nickname “Pol”?
From Mike’s post:
it’s Tory seat totals - not Labour ones - that will determine whether there’s a hung parliament
This is the key insight, IMHO. All GEs are about whether we’ll have a Tory or Labour government.
I’d therefore expand OGH’s point and propose the following: the only marginals that matter are thus the Con:XXX marginals.
These are the seats where the Conservatives either build toward their goal or not.
Marginals in which the Conservatives aren’t in contention don’t matter. Whatever the result, the winner will be anti-Conservative. Whether it’s Lab / LD, Lab / SNP, PC / MRL, or PJP / Respect, it makes zero difference - every one of those potential seat winners is anti-Conservative.
Hence the result doesn’t matter. Results matter only where a Conservative is denied a potential seat.
As I’ve mentioned before, I voted Lab in ‘05 despite being a Labour-hater. I did so because I was in a Lab / LD marginal, i.e. an irrelevant backwater, and the most constructive pro-Tory vote it was possible to cast was for the second-placed player.
This keeps the seat marginal and ensures both players will waste resources fighting it in 2010. This struggle will make no difference to the important outcome, but it will lessen both those parties’ ability to oppose the Tories elsewhere.
There are Con:XXX constituencies and, as Gordon Gekko would say, “the rest is just conversation”.
Sorry nits - you just don’t matter.
121 - why? Surely it encourages more dialogue with the public, because if they get their co-operation stance wrong they will get crucified. At present, the public can be safely ignored in the c60% of seats that are safe.
Mike S.
Not on thread, but some queries regarding recent polls.
1. ARS
Are results for England-only available for this latest poll? As we know that “Others” is far lower for both Scotland and Wales and they are also 4-party countries, then England-only figures can be used in a rough way for UNS.
Having looked at the results and regional splits for the three ARS polls, they show a remarkable consistency. Does this mean that ARS is sampling many of the same people each time? Do you know what is the %age of their available available research population that they sample each time and the variation between each sample?
2.IPSOS-MORI
As a person who runs a high-tech company that includes a research division, we are very careful when running simulations to watch for results that do not fit an expected trend line. If too many results are statistically outside the expected trend, then we will quadruple the sample and re-test and so on.
Please can you explain (or even ask them tonight)why MORI did not use this very standard procedure, rather then just publishing their controversial results? I know that it would have cost them financially, but an enhanced reputation is good for future business.
129. Perth is an SNP/Con marginal - I’m sure one of the Edinburgh seats is two.
119 Casino. Ah .. we’re “mates” now !!
However I’m a wee bit confused. You say your critisism of the Tories is principled and “justified” whereas according to you my critisism is “partisan Tory bashing”.
Now I call that worthy of a hearty belly laugh !!
Keep em coming Cas me old mucker !!
133 - Jack, Whilst you’re about, Will the yellow peril hold onto Westmorland and Lonsdale next year?
51 Nick P - “The trend in most polls, though not Angus Reid, has been for a small hardening of the Labour vote and a small softening of the Tory vote”
Not really. Two pollsters, ICM and MORI, have shown this effect. The MORI poll doesn’t look credible, but in any case both of those were in comparison to the previous very high Tory leads (17 points), which always looked on the high side.
Of the other pollsters, AR, YouGov and ComRes have shown no change or a tiny increase in the Tory lead, in their most recent polls.
Given the small number of polls and the normal MOE, I don’t think there is any justification for concluding that we are seeing anything other than noise (plus poor MORI methodology), superimposed on a fairly consistent position.
What is more, all of the supposed reasons which pundits have put forward as possible explanations of why there might have been an improvement in Labour’s position don’t look convincing to me; that is another reason why I don’t think anything much has changed.
My only slight doubt relates to the Turnip Taliban story; if there has been any reduction in the Tory lead, the idiotic statements made by some of those involved strike me as the most likely explanation. But I’m not yet convinced there is any effect at all here.
134 Scream. Easily. Think of a scaled down North Norfolk 2005 result.
37 Edmund in Tokyo. Ridiculous. The difference between AR on Others and the regular pollsters since their first poll is 4 points. On any sensible allocation of this between the three main parties, and removing the SNP content, the effect on the gap between Con and Lab in England and Wales,the only true determinant of the result of the next election,is nil.
64. Jack W - “Some might think it novel that the UK government takes office in the interest of all parts of the nation and not just blue parts. Might be an idea ??”
You might as well be talking Swahili Jack. Tories just do not understand the language you speak. Counter-productive selfishness is in their genes.
135.
Richard,
Probably the most sensible comments seen on here for days, spot on !
thanks
133. Of course we’re mates Jack
But… eh?
Your posts often take a swipe at the Tories - presumably to try and balance out what you feel is the latent Tory majority posting here - but they often fail to point out that the same weaknesses exist in other parties.
I call such behaviour partisan Tory bashing!
My response to your post at 109 was to demonstrate to you I don’t sit in an ivory tower fawning over Lord Cameron and all he surveys without being able to look at my party with a critical eye.
Make sense?
I would be interested to know what you think makes it a shabby pile though
136 - But Mr Dale isn’t standing in W&L
Do I see evidence over the last couple of days of a concerted effort to rubbish the AR poll?
Fine words butter no parsnips: what ahppened to the billions, Gordon?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8376009.stm
Q3 GDP drop revised up by 25%.
Even more moderate then previously thought.
138. Except; you don’t want a UK government to take an interest in Scotland, do you?
144. Classic.
138. Very fiesty this morning young Stuart.
I’d prefer not to delve too deeply into Tory genes !! …. although their Jacobites ancestors rank most highly in my estimation.
130 - You are confusing two things: safe seats (themselves a bad thing) and dialogue with the public. In a hung Parliament, politicians are looking to reach coalitions or ad hoc voting arrangements. That means they spend a lot of time talking to each other. There is no problem in this country that is improved by having politicians talk to each other.
145. Don’t bite, Casino. Stuart’s just playing his sado-masochistic nationalism game.
138. Ha ha - yes the SNP would never divert funds away from Labour areas (Glasgow) to their own - or pay off Margo McDonald for a vote.
144. Thinking like that explains why you made such a mess of things when you had responsibility.
144 Gabble, I think this % change mularkey might just come back to bite you on the arse - say, when Darling reveals the PBR…
144 Only in gabble’s world is a GDP drop of 0.3%, after five previous quarters of contraction, cause for celebration.
148 - I think you underestimate the extent to which those things already happen in a majority government.
If its a small majority then there is a lot of internal dialogue keeping back benchers on board.
If its a big majority, there’s no need for the government to talk to the public.
144 - Care to explain why France, Germany, the Eurozone, America, the rest of the G7 are all out of this recession, whilst we’re still in a moderate recession?
I think people expecting anything but more moonbeams and gloss in the PBR will be disappointed.
Darling will shove out a repeat of the April budget with lots of green shoots but no real plan. The markets have already factored in him being ejected by May and his forecast is almost irrelevant.
141 Scream. I did say “scaled down”. And in fairness to Mrs Dale the scale of his defeat was very much more to do with Norman Lamb and the electoral machine he’d been building up for years than any inadequacies on Dale’s part.
140 Casino. “Partisan” to whom pray ??
I simply post as I find. Certainly it’s true that the preponderence of Tory hacks requiring culling ensures more frequent responses. I dare say that might reverse itself once Cammo takes office and PB is more heavily stuffed with the dreaded Gabbles of this world !!
BTW all piles are shabby compared to Auchentennach castle …. fancy a pie ??
TSE - My bet offer on Westmorland is still open
Gabble: Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Spain and the UK - the mighty titan economies that are still in recession.
What does it take for you to hang your head in shame? Day-trippers from Iceland who come to point and laugh at the poor Brits, maybe?
132. So it counts as a Con:XXX marginal.
The key bit is before the colon. Who’s after it doesn’t matter.
SNP significance therefore = 1 seat. Unless Cameron wins 324 seats and the nits win that one, the nits don’t matter.
158 Remind us Timothy of the odds on offer ?!?
144. Woman slightly less pregnant than thought.
158 - Tim, 50quid at evens that Mr Farron wont get a majority of 2k or more?
Quelle horreur: my IT team appears to have blocked my internet access to SPIN.
154. “If its a small majority then there is a lot of internal dialogue keeping back benchers on board.”
Well, there was certainly a lot of internal dialogue to keep the back benchers on board during the passing of Maastrict in 1993 when John Majors government.
But IIRC the public weren’t too keen on that and punished the government for it.
157. “Certainly it’s true that the preponderence of Tory hacks requiring culling ensures more frequent responses. I dare say that might reverse itself once Cammo takes office and PB is more heavily stuffed with the dreaded Gabbles of this world !!”
There we go!!
Right: I must go off and work now. Toodleloo.
160: It doesn’t matter becuase in terms of the UK the SNP is only a very minor regional party.
163 Scream. Oh deary me Scream …. oh deary me !!
144 Gabble - Are you seriously suggesting that these GDP estimates are accurate to one part in a thousand?
I appreciate that numeracy under Labour has deteriorated, but well-educated twelve year olds should know enough about measurement and error bars to realise that there is no information content in this revision of the estimate.
160. A sizeable Lib/Lab vote to be fought for !
General Election 2005: Perth and North Perthshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
SNP Peter Wishart 15,469 33.7 n/a
Conservative Douglas Taylor 13,948 30.4 n/a
Labour Doug Maughan 8,601 18.7 n/a
Liberal Democrats Gordon Campbell 7,403 16.1 n/a
Scottish Socialist Philip Stott 509 1.1 n/a
Majority 1,521 3.3
Turnout 45,930 64.8 n/a
163 Good for you, TSE. The next election will be memorable for many things, the death of the notion of The LibDem Incumbency Boost being one of them…
#68 Casino Royale
You say
“…..Except that in 2005 more voters in England voted Conservative than Labour.
But we got a Labour government thanks to Scottish…..”
What on earth are you talking about?????
Yes, Labour polled seventy thousand fewer votes in England than the Conservatives, BUT they won ninety-two more seats
Therefore the Scots had, as usual, nothing fundamental to do with there being a Labour government in England.
Your complaint should be against FPTP, which every Conservative I have ever spoken to is wildly in favour of, in spite of the fact that without PR the Conservative party in Scotland (saved by Annabel Goldie who has never herself won a FPTP constituency seat) would truly be non-existent.
Separately, as Stuart Dickson has pointed out, most SNP supporters take the view that it is the irrelevance of Scotland to UK politics in most circumstances that is a strong argument for independence.
167 - I think thats what passes as humour in a car with blacked out windows where no one can see your face.
The bet I’m offering is that £50 at evens that the Tories will lose Westmorland by 2000 votes or more.
168. Richard Nabavi: “Gabble - Are you seriously suggesting that these GDP estimates are accurate to one part in a thousand?”
Are you saying that we may not be in recession at all?
170 - If you’re right, sadly for me I’ve backed the yellow peril to hold onto Winchester and Eastleigh.
166. Yep. The precise receptacle into which the anti-Conservative vote is discharged at GE time is irrelevant. In the polling booth at a GE, there are constructively only two political stances available: Conservative and anti-Conservative.
Living in a Lab/LD, Lab/SNP, LD/SNP (etc) constituency offers you a choice between two anti-Conservative parties.
So OGH is right. Peering at the Scottish tea leaves may tell you anti-Tory party #1 is ahead of parties 2, 3, and 4, but so what.
170 - In which case you’ll take the bet.
Knowing nothing about Scotland and simplifying to a straight line left-right spectrum i’d always assumed the SNP parked themselves with one foot on Labour terriotory and one foot on LD terriotory. The various Westminster polls recently seem to point at them being more 2:1 Lib/Lab hence the problems for Scottish LDs and Tories and free run for Labour.
Alternatively they’d been successfully presenting themselves as 50:50 Lab/Lib but the Megrahi thing messed them up in the wuff areas.
172 - Bet accepted. I’ll email PtP this afternoon.
178 - Excellent
170 - Marquee Mark, I’ll offer you £50 at the same terms too.
170 MM. Accordingly, you’ve got your cash down Messr Mark ??
Richard Nabavi November 25th, 2009 at 10:20 am
I wonder if the Norfolk Nonsense may have improved the Tory image with the floating voter. Cameron seen as a determined moderniser and change agent in his party. Determined and tough.
The ranters about Europe may have had a similar effect on some.
And I am sure that the more talk there is of a hung parliament with a possible continuation of Labour will harden anti-Labour voters determination considerably.
177. Megrahi - Libya seems to have better healthcare than Scotland..
A pretty boring political week by recent standards.
Will Cameron ask Our Glorious Leader about the floods? That would be boring but safe.
The £62bn secret loan is the real story - but it would rapidly descend into a “we saved the banks and the world - the evil Tories would do nothing” farce.
A bit off topic.
Bubble cartoon in Private Eye:BROWN VISITS FLOOD ZONE and is pictured declaiming………..”I’m after the floating voter”.
173 Gabble - That is a possibility, certainly, based on the technical definition of ‘recession’. One should always consider the margin of error in any statistic - the teaching of which to youngsters would do far more good than gimmicky lectures on domestic violence.
132 There are several Scottish seats which are effectively Tory v SNP head to head.
The simple ones are Perth and Angus where it is a straight fight and perceived SNP wisdom is that their majorities will balloon into safe territory. Both are seats the Tories in essence recovered in 1979 from the SNP.
Then there are the 3-way marginals in which either Tory or SNP should displace the Labour or LibDem incumbent unless the anti-incumbent vote is evenly split again letting them hold on. These seats include Argyll (LibDem), Stirling (Labour) and Ochil and South Perthshire (Labour).
Ooh… I see they are trying to reduce the likelihood of the secret bank loans coming up at PMQs
http://twitter.com/BBCLauraK/status/6046792547
The big story today is surely Mervyn King’s strident criticism of the Government over its wholly inadequate plans as he sees it for cutting the structural deficit.
Dave surely has to lead on this today. Yes, Afghanistan is important, but it’s high time he returned to domestic issues. His reluctance in hardly ever being prepared to tackle Brown over the economy at PMQs is becoming ever more evident. This appears to give strong support to the theory that he’s scared of doing so, lest Brown chews him up and spits him out!
Cameron had better get his act together on matters economic before the GE otherwise he is at risk of being damagingly exposed.
There seems to be a fair amount of anger in various comments columns over the Supreme Court finding in favour of the Banks this morning re unfair overdraft charges.
183 wibbler. A question about Bob Ainsworth’s statement on Obama would be interesting and dangerous.
186. Have you any thoughts on Perth Easterross ?
190, unlikely to happen then, particularly as Cameron may have to deal with Obama for 6 years (at the most).
189 - Is this a good time to mention, I worked for a firm of solicitors, that helped draft the banks defence in the bank charges case?
181 Witan - “I wonder if the Norfolk Nonsense may have improved the Tory image with the floating voter. Cameron seen as a determined moderniser and change agent in his party.”
That is a possibility, but I felt the Turnip Taliban pronouncements (unsurprisingly) got more coverage and might feed some voters’ doubts about how deeply Cameron’s detoxification programme has successfully cleansed the party.
#36 Random
“Domestic violence isn’t a gender issue.”
How right you are. Only in the acceptance of this will further progress be made on this issue.
Nonetheless, even given what I have just said, it is often women, because of the general likelihood of a man being stronger than a woman, who suffer the most serious physical injuries when domestic violence occurs.
To reduce serious injury to women further I would urge any advice given to young children to be couched in language that makes it absolutely clear that it is equally wrong for a woman to attack a man as for a man to attack a woman.
A common consequence of a woman striking the first blow-and this happens for more often than is generally understood-risks injury to the woman more than it does to the man.
Most men are brought up being told that they must never strike a woman. It is important, for the sake of women themselves, and reduction in total domestic violence, that women are now brought up being told that they must never strike a man (or anyone else, of course).
BBC:
‘History is what we say it is. Capisce?’
‘The recession during the third quarter of 2009 was not as bad as forecast. 0.3
BBC:
‘History is what we say it is. Capisce?’
‘The recession during the third quarter of 2009 was not as bad as forecast. 0.3
187 - Cheers for the link on the Homeopathy quacks being destroyed live on BBC Democracy Live.
Its hilarious.
198, you mean diluting active ingredients *don’t* make them more powerful?!
Minor point on the importance of moves in Scotland.
I may know nothing about Scotland but i know a bit about Scottish Labourites (and i assume McDoom is the same). How they do against SNP in their heartland areas is massively important to their morale.
196: From the BBC which orginally said we were out of recession in Q3
They really are masters of newspeak.
when the Tories get into power, they need to cut socialist Scotland loose
200. Scottish MPs could make up 15-25% of the PLP after the election - a sizeable block vote.
Perhaps Jim Murphy has a shot at being the next Labour leader ?
189: I welcome the fact theres a higher chance my current account might remain free
193 Hmm maybe I should hire you. Mind you the Supreme Court have reversed a decision in the Court of Appeal and High Court before that so I don’t know which stage of the process you were involved in.
199 - The Quack from the Royal Homeopathic Hospital has just said its the shaking of the water that makes the difference.Stirring soesn’t work, and its the particular type of shaking that matters.
Although he admitted that no research had been done into the shaking.
197
Before I was interrupted…
197.BBC:
‘History is what we say it is. Capisce?’
‘The recession during the third quarter of 2009 was not as bad as forecast. 0.3% rather than 0.4%.’
Forecast?
Was it a forecast?
I thought the forecast was that the UK would not be in recession at all?
206. Perhaps why the invincible James Bond has his martinis shaken not stirred ?
206, obviously, tim. *Everyone* knows the magic shaking technique is more credible than any of your so-called ’scientifically proven’ medicine.
Fascinated by this bet on W&L. Think a majority of about 2,000 is right; I dno’t see the Lib Dems in general advancing across the country, and still less in Tory/LD battlegrounds, but the yellows appear to have made great strides in Westmorland over the last five years. Though I’m not sure whether the onset of the recession and its impact on the tourist industry might change minds again.
Anyone know any local issues why this should be the case? Or is it just a case of one team working harder than the other?
If we’re saying a LD majority of 2,000 is about evens, what’s the combined wisdom of the pb.com gamblers on Cheadle? Very different seat, but very similar battle.
180 I’ve made a start, JackW, with my bet with PtP on Solihull…
Others may well follow!
OT: damned windy in Yorkshire. Makes me glad I’m not 7st anymore.
208 - I suspect Bond had more researched trials to back up his martini preference.
42.”Polling Scotland is a bloody nightmare. The samples tend to be small and trying to get an accurate sample probably requires the services of half a dozen Nobel prize winners combined with the luck of a winning Euro-millions top prize winner.
Further caution is required because support for the Lib Dems and Tories is heavily concerntrated - You’re as likely to find a yellow perilist or blue rinser in some parts of the central belt as you are to find Mike Smithson as president of the Rod Crosby Appreciation Society !!
Accordingly I’d be especially cautious about North British polling. The track record is very mixed and results need to read with a basting spoon worth of salt. Beware !!”
I am totally with JackW on this one. I think that Labour has hardened its core vote in the Central belt over recent months, but not anywhere else in Scotland. And I also think that actual turnout on election day will be the key, and that is where this polling figure is going to be really up against it.
I linked to a Conhom article by Tim Montgomery on this poll yesterday in the previous thread with the headline”Scottish Tories stuck at 1997 levels of support”. Really Mr Montgomery??!!
213. Perhaps he hacked into the Barcardi mainframe to access the secretly forged data - just before he helped Mossad and Exxonmobil break into the UEA ?
208, 213 - James Bond also flew in the face of expert opinion:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Stirred-Not-Shaken-Dry-Martini/dp/0091276616/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259147911&sr=8-5
207. “I thought the forecast was that the UK would not be in recession at all?”
We may not be! It could just be statistical noise.
The best we can say is that the moderate decline has all but run its course.
Good news today, good news tomorrow.
189. Norm.
Quite right too. The court ruling basically says that it’s OK for someone to charge you £25 to send you a letter so long as all their competitors also charge you £25 to send you a letter.
217 - Moderate?!
50.”I was recently in Aberdeen with relatives and at a dinner party of overwhelmingly professional people there wasn’t a Tory present. Even the feckless wife of a wealthy oilman-whose obsession was to be reunited with Harvey Nicks in Edinburgh-dismissed the Tories as ‘awful’.”
Roger, having lived in Aberdeen for many years, and knowing that patch and the issues really well. I find that comment fascinating.
217 - How big would the shrinkage of the economy have to be before you would call it severe?
180 Give the guy some credit, Jack. He started with the very toughest of opposition!
by Richard Nabavi November 25th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Yes, but the end of the story was the candidate was reaffirmed and the mad hatter of Norfolk stormed out of the meeting in the highest of dudgeons.
The nice lady won against the nasty old curmudgeonly man.
Almost a Norfolk Carol.
221. antifrank: How big would the shrinkage of the economy have to be before you would call it severe?
“Tory”.
221. Remember ‘there has been no boom and there will be no bust’
So what will Cam be going with for PMQ’s today? Has to be the economy doesn’t it?
215/6 I have to say, Brian Iddon and Evan Harris did well not to burst out laughing at some of those exchanges.
Particularly the “Anti Malarial Homeeopathic Treatments” which, as they appear not to work are not approved of by the Homeopathic Reseach Centre, which approves other treaments which do not work.
214 Indeed, Christina.
Or, to put it another way, it’s bloody impossible to tell what the Scots are thinking, or why!
226 - Floods and Bridges?
Is all of Roger’s political information based on people he meets at dinner parties?
219: Just let gabble sit in his little delusion.
Conversly when we have a 0.3 growth or something next quarter he will of course say its statistical noise and we could be back in recession…
won’t he?
208. IIRC martinis should be stirred not shaken, because shaking them makes them go cloudy.
I speak as a former cocktail barman (who was never asked by a customer for a martini, but then our customers thought a lager top was a cocktail, so not wholly surprising).
171. I thought my point was quite clear Tom.
Labour only got a plurality of UK votes by virtue of the electorates of Wales and Scotland. Scotland also gave the UK both our Prime Minister and Chancellor.
That would not have happened without Scotland being in the Union.
It is the same phenomena as the Conservatives getting a plurality of UK votes by virtue of the English electorate and England giving the UK both our future Prime Minster and Chancellor.
Yes, the disparity between FPTP seats and votes is an issue but that is not the point I was making - I carelessly missed out the word ‘plurality’ between “Labour Government” and “thanks”.
Which plank of a minister first decided to fund homeopathy from public money?
Tredinnick’s expenses were bad enough - but he is just a disgraced backbencher.
Poor old homeopaths.
Never mind, there’s about to be a vacancy for an experienced anti-intellectual and pseudoscientist at the top of the CRU at UEA.
Perhaps they could all apply and all give each other glowing testimonials.
217. Gabble - I am beyond finding you irritating.
I just laugh at you now. EVERYONE LAUGHS AT YOU.
188 Agreed. He has a lot of material to work with,I would love to see him throw Obamas recent comments about reducing the deficit at Brown and see how he reacts!
231. Slackbladder.
He’s claim it as a great triumph, thus ignoring the fact that it was a shock to find Q3 was recessionary and to fing Q4 also is would be a catastrophe.
224. Exactly.
234 - Its been on the NHS since 1948, unbelievably.
Tredinnick may be disgraced but he’s in a safe seat.
I see we have a new obsession today. What’s next - astrology?
O/T - any chance of a thread on this?
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/11/ipsosmoris-new-poll-on-public-spending.html
The Today programme covered this Ipsos-Mori poll in detail this morning at 8.10am as it showed public support for tax rises over spending cuts which was “better for Labour”.
Funny. I listen to Radio 4 daily and can’t remember it covering the several other polls asking similar questions showing the exact opposite over the last 12 months.
242. The other polls don’t fit with the ‘narrative’.
210; “Anyone know any local issues why this should be the case? Or is it just a case of one team working harder than the other? ”
Farron has the local paper in his pocket. Not a week passes without two or three pictures of his gurning face attached to any and every cause, regardless of its merits, staring out at its readers.
The man’s a media whore.
0.4 to 0.3% is just noise. GDP is an estimate which is restated years after the initial numbers are provided.
Its not really a surprise, the Govt has just printed and spent £200bn. Thats £200bn more money flowing around the economy on a GDP of £1.2tn. Its why shares and houses are going up in value and will keep going….
Problem is wages wont keep up, we are heading into Japan territory of 1% interest rates, huge asset prices and no growth.
234: Bevan, apparently. See http://www.homeopathy-soh.org/whats-new/past-press-releases/nhs.aspx . To be fair, doubts about its efficacy have strengthened since the spread of modern clinical trials in recent years.
Ken Clarke more right-wing than Cameron?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6930464.ece
David Davis will be in opposition “whoever wins”:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/25/simon-hoggart-politicians-academics-awards
No comeback to the cabinet for Davis then.
Every time Jackboots Jacki opens her mouth she shows up her ignorance, then has to backtrack. Ken is a far smoother politician; intelligent too.
Although he can be too laid-back at times.
FPT and your comment re Osborne
105 - you would think given his position as the nation’s financial chief, and the amount of scrutiny placed on MPs’ expenses in the last six months, he would have made damned sure his expense claims were 100% accurate. I would if I were in his position.
That he hasn’t looks at best sloppy (inference: what does this say about his approach to larger matters?) or at worst arrogant in the assumption that these things don’t matter.
by Tabman November 24th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
tabman, couple of things about this post.
1, Osborne is not the nations financial chief, that honour belongs to a Mr Darling,
2. That Mr Darling has proved his financial acumen by flipping houses and making a nice little sum for himself. On that basis alone I know who I would prefer as a trusted servant of the people.
245. Yes this GDP revision is so minor as to be almost meaningless.
Perhaps we can stop having hysterical posts about the ONS being in Labour’s pocket now, though?
Is everyone on the Daily Politics drunk?
211/222 MM/PtP. Certainly gone for the toughest nut there …. and in more sense than one !!
252 And who would know more about tough nuts than you, Young Jack.
Cameron fantastic, Brown terrible.
(has it started yet?)
249 - “tabman, couple of things about this post.
1, Osborne is not the nations financial chief, that honour belongs to a Mr Darling,
2. That Mr Darling has proved his financial acumen by flipping houses and making a nice little sum for himself. On that basis alone I know who I would prefer as a trusted servant of the people.”
1 - insert word “aspirant” before “financial chief”
2 - two wrongs don’t make a right
Brown running out the clock already.
255. Gordo using up whole 30 mins thanking the RSPCA for rescuing a cat.
…and then didn’t even give the standard answer to the first question!
Note to Duncan
You must give a valid email address.
215.wibbler, not watching it, why?
Why is Gordon eating up time making a statement dressed up as an answer?
Planted first question. Bercow should stamp on this.
256 - “2. That Mr Darling has proved his financial acumen by flipping houses and making a nice little sum for himself. On that basis alone I know who I would prefer as a trusted servant of the people”
Osborne reversed the designation on his houses and subsequently borrowed more than the value of the second property (funded by the taxpayer).
263. Perhaps he’s too busy thinking about his wallpaper
Yawn - “floods R bad” consensus breaks out.
266 But I thought Gordon is going to pass a bill outlawing them?
What the H is Cameron banging on about?
Oh dear - a trap
258. Pussying out again is he?
From floods to leaks
258. Pu$$ying out again is he?
Wow!
I thought PMQs was going to be ultra boring.
For some reason the colloquial term for a cute little cat is always moderated.
WHY?
Balls in the vice
Can’t see tv at the moment, what is this about a trap? Balls in vice?
Gove’s face is almost as good as Gordon Death Stare
Gordons discovered a group caled Isboo Dareer
For those of us not able to watch at present, could someone please say what actually just happened?
I wonder what Balls was just saying?!?!
Anjum Choudhary’s groups get banned on a monthly basis, and he invents a new one the next month.
Cameron is being a bit daft there
275 - Cameron asking questions about a couple of Muslim schools with links to extremists which have received public funds. Gove wrote to Balls about it but Brown doesn’t know about it. It is a bit of an odd exchange as Brown obviously hasn’t seen any of the background information.
Here come the tractor stats.
1211 Mr Cameron suggests schools with links to the groups have been given public money - Mr Brown says he will look at the claims “very very carefully”. The Tory leader, to shouts from Labour MPs, says he finds it hard to believe Mr Brown doesn’t know about it as his party have asked numerous questions about the issue. The Speaker tells backbenchers to calm down.
1209 The PM says the government is doing “everything in its power” to get people back to their homes quickly. Mr Cameron says he is “very grateful” for the answers. He then goes on to ask why the “extremist group Hizb ut-Tahrir” has not been banned and asks if it has received any public money - the PM says he’s not aware of it. Mr Cameron says he has the evidence.
277; Are they linked with alky aida?
Cameron looking pretty shoddy.
More proof that he just isn’t PM material.
Why does Brown lose his rag so easily? He should just be calm. Easy.
Balls mouthing ’shameful’ as Cameron states government funds are funding Hizbut Tarir (sp?)
272.wibbler, what was going on today on the Daily Politics?
281 - Gordo obviously doesn’t read the papers then, as this has been reported.
283. Gordo says that ID cards will help stop islamic militant schools receiving money from Labour councils - I think..
278 Cameron just asked Gordon why HMG was giving money [£113k] to a school set up by Islamic extremists who Blair said he’d ban them 3 yrs ago.
203 “Scottish MPs could make up 15-25% of the PLP after the election - a sizeable block vote. Perhaps Jim Murphy has a shot at being the next Labour leader ?”
Good point. I’ve been assuming they were going to get pummeled in Scotland as well but if not then yes it might change the leadership contest dramatically - either towards a Scot or at least towards a more Old Labour candidate.
288 ChristinaD
Oh - they were acting even more foolishly than usual about their mug competition - they had a special van Rompuy mug and were basically all being very silly.
Brown looking pretty weak. More proof that he just isn’t PM material.
Has Balls been caught not doing his homework again?
Who’s the bloke sat next to Gordon?
293.wibbler, thanks.
Clegg has an important angle on Chilcot
286. Let me show you how to do it Gabble:
Cameron terrible, Brown fantastic. This is no contest.
5 more years of Brown = dead cert.
284 - “arlkaydurr”
253 PtP. I have all sorts of interesting devices for cracking nuts …. many of them older than me !!
Good performance from Clegg on inquiry
296 - Jim Murphy
273. Because Mrs Slocombe jokes are seared into the national consciousness. We cannot for instance have posters asking PB ladies who are known to be fond of cats whether such and such a development makes their pu$$ies’ hair stand on end. That would be an appalling state of affairs.
Never seen anyone look as angry as Balls. Scary, and doubly scary that he can’t hide it when he knows he is on tv.
Even Rumpy-Pumpy better than Cameron. This is ATROCIOUS.
EtonBullingdonInheritanceFail.
If what Clegg said is true - that Whitehall departments have a veto on publication of parts of Chilcot - that is an utter disgrace.
Patrick Cormac is a buffon.
A waste of a question by Patrick Cormack.
285 - Gabble, PMQs really doesn’t matter to the overwhelming majority of people. It’s only political nerds like us who take an interest in it. As long as Cameron can get a good soundbite for the evening news, it’s job done.
Margaret Thatcher was generally bad as leader of the opposition at PMQs against Wilson and Callaghan. Didn’t stop her winning 3 elections.
Brown knows Cameron has the govt rumbled on this and Balls is terrified looking at his reaction. Very explosive issue if the press run hard on it. Government slack on terror links to the perceived hand-washing over Megrahi etc.
Also ensured the flood issue which is the most pressing home issue of the week was covered thoroughly and properly first.
Brown’s answers to the terror question were deferred to when he can find a way out of the hole.
307 What did he ask? Gordon looked really peed off.
From Speccy,
“Clegg claims, seem terribly serious. It’s about this government’s shameful culture of secrecy, says Clegg.
Brown has no answer - it’s a train wreck of a session for the PM at the moment.”
Going well for Gordo then…
306.wibbler, totally agree. But I have to admit that the last 24 hours have not inspired confidence in this inquiry. Are they making it up as they go along?
“When did the PM realise he was infallible?”
308/309. Did he ask what the Prime Minister wanted for Christmas again?
I guess time for some friendly planted questions, IHT, Waffen SS, Tories Wrong on Economy, etc
311. Plato.
When Brown first thought he was infallible, I think.
289. Brown has surely long since passed the point where he reads the papers, preferring instead to listen only to the views of his inner circle of sycophants and hangers-on.
All he hears is a comforting reinforcement of his own warped view of reality and of his delusional ideas about his own ability….
305 What on earth are you on about?
A very subdued PMQ’s so far.
Labour still in love with Hizb ut-Tahrir though. Is it an anal love?
315. When he was born?
Parmjit Dhandha defends ACPO on Islamic extremism.
Oh dear is Gordo lying again,
12:20: A question about the bank charges case - Brown assures the House that Northern Rock, RBS and Lloyds Group have cut their charges in recent weeks. I can tell you from bitter experience that RBS at least have not followed his demands.
Well done,David Cameron. You gave me a reminder of why I will be voting Conservative.
This was a brave line of questioning on Islamic extremism and an undoubted vote loser.
Labour have made the cynical calculation that there are more Muslim votes than Jewish votes and that it is good tactics to pander to outfits like Hizb ut-Tahrir.
The Liberal Democrats give Labour running lessons in this area, so the scramble for Muslim votes should be a thriller.
324 (cont) That was Speccy post, not mine own experience.
316. Casino Royale: “Did he ask what the Prime Minister wanted for Christmas again?”
Cameron has decreed it ‘Wintermas’. Please respect your leader.
Gordo brings out the Grave Robber/Dead millionaires tax.
306, why what has he done?
Thanks for the info - indeed a waste of a question but it did annoy Gordon
A good point by Parmjit Dhanda at Camerons expense, Cameron has a point on the Schools funding, but really needs to grow up on banning loon fringe groups.
325. URW - it isn’t just Jewish people who are worried about Islamic extremism, you know.
317. No. The latest line from der Führerbunker is to emphasise Camerons Redface.
OMG I can’t believe Gordo has tried to link the IHT with terrorism!!!!!!!!
328 - Wonder if CCHQ will send Gordo a Xmas Card, as it is very good of him to keep advertising one of the Tories most popular policies.
321 I don’t really understand Cameron’s line of attack. I can only presume that Gove has unearthed something truly nasty.
334 Blue Rog
It shows an astonishing lack of judgment.
Piennar trotting out just b4 PMQ’s the latest poll was Mori, Why are theses journos so ill informed?
334 - WTF!
333. I believe his hair may be questionable too, and his cufflinks. These are important matters, you know.
Urgh what a toady Whitehead is.
Today is a slam-dunk win for Cameron.
Clegg’s question is even more important though.
338. They aren’t - they just don’t want to discuss things that don’t fit their preordained view of the world.
342 Gordon gets ever so shirty very quickly today. Not a good look.
331. Cameron was quoting Tony Blair
we will proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahira and the successor organisation of Al Mujahiroun. We will also examine the grounds for proscription to widen them and put forward proposals in the new legislation
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page8041
336 - Wonder if Gove has his own little mole in Education department? I can’t imagine it would be hard to find a pi$$ed off civil servant under Eddie Balls command.
“I was RIGHT”.
327. I only respect the one true Führer und Reichskanzler of the Nationalsozialistische Britisch Arbeiterpartei: Gordon Brown.
42
Yep ! It been quite a while since we’ve seen Gordon so discomforted. Balls got quite a glare from him when he sat down. Parmjit Sec. for Education next week.
Labour going all out defending ACPO.
How stupid are they?
Gordo wants no politicising of the police - lol.
Cameron was quoting Tony Blair.
we will proscribe Hizb-ut-Tahira and the successor organisation of Al Mujahiroun. We will also examine the grounds for proscription to widen them and put forward proposals in the new legislation
http://tinyurl.com/ybxgd4f
345 As they say - only ask questions you know the answer to
Amusing planted question pretending that the police isn’t politicised.
Yeah, whatever.
I saw a parcel for DC this morning from a company called Pink Cherry. I hope this isn’t their website! http://www.pinkcherry.com/
334. I can understand that.
For example: my parents have left their whole estate to the Waffen SS in their will.
They will get even more for their panzer divisons if this IHT cut goes through.
Mwhahahahahaaaa!!!!
349. They are simply standing up for their own supporters, like any party should
Sod this. I’m off for a walk. Won’t stay sunny long.
351 - No one, Cameron or anyone else will ban Hizb, and Al Ghurabaa were banned.
Blair tried to find a way, but the legal advice was that it wouldn’t hold water.
Like banning the BNP
“There’s a choice between giving people help and cutting IHT; I think I know what choice the British people will make”.
So do I.
Labour 22%.
So the DUP won’t be backing Brown, then …
Andrew Neil is saying the Islamicist is the HEAD MASTER!!!!
358 tim - But I believe Cameron’s question was about subsidising these groups using taxpayers’ money. If true, that is an absolute scandal.
Maybe Brown doesn’t realise that there is a middle course between banning something and throwing money at it?
Jackboots looks shell shocked on DP.
362 - It’s the New Labour way: everything is either illegal or compulsory.
Daily Politics
Headmistress at one of the schools says she has no links to Hizb ut-Tahrir.
147. Jack W
“Young Stuart” is going grey, and has started squinting his eyes to read things. I await imminently the arrival of my (ahem) “Mike Smithson Hairstyle”.
Oh well, at least I still have my sex drive.
Wow… this is a car crash.
Tony Lloyd on PMQs er erer ah ah …. asks a ddddd… question dribbling away and proves why he was such a fine specimen for the Labour MPs to endorse again as their Chairman!!!!
Just like their other unopposed choice of kin Gordon.
365 Shame the founder is though and so is his wife who happens to be their press person.
361 Oh dear. No wonder Eddie Balls is $hitting himself. It looks as if he’s going to be spending some time on Gordon’s naughty step. Best buy another crate of Nokias too.
Neil is really going for Smiff - good.
365 - They would say that now wouldn’t then. F##kin numpty MacGabble.
Don’t need the LHC. Jacqui Smith getting marmalized into quarks on the Daily Politics.
The school caught live on air deleting material from their website.
“Oh well, at least I still have my sex drive.
by Stuart Dickson November 25th, 2009 at 12:40 pm ”
To paraphrase Gene Hunt: you make that sound like a good thing.
374 Oh dear, its a serious pile up not a car crash. Who discovered the deletions?
371.Plato, Neil and Smith have previous on the Daily Politics. IIRC, one of the most bad tempered exchanges I ever witnessed on the programme was between these two.
It looks like Ed Balls has not been doing his homework, or passing it to teacher for them to peruse.
376 Maggie Thatcher Fan
Anita Anand was browsing their website whilst Andrew Neil was interviewing Jacqui Smith.
374.”The school caught live on air deleting material from their website.”
wibbler, can you elaborate?
368
is that ‘kin Gordon?
374
twinned with the CRU?
378.OMG!! That one better be investigated further!!
google cache should be able to prove that
374 Are there caches of the original pages?
383 - archive.org proved useful for me when I was looking for old versions of my own website.
Just saying…
374 wibbler - Almost certainly a futile exercise, since there are a number of sites which take snapshots of websites and preserve them so you can see how they’ve changed:
For example:
http://web.archive.org/collections/web.html
383 I’m sure someone will have taken screen shots if they’ve got any sense.
374. wibbler.
This might make Titiangate pale into insignificance.
386. Plato.
Dizzy’s often on the case of such things.
Ta ta Eddie Balls.
Game Over
ANother McBridesque sacrifice at the altar of St Gordon of the Moral Compass
Over at Guido just noticed this post,
“Guido Fawkes: I hate those w@nkers who do that, they should go back to pb.com where they belong.”
Blimey. Didn’t see either Cameron’s or Clegg’s questioning.
Brown’s Christmas card list soundbite was, I think, prepared in anticipation of economic questions and he had to jam it in later.
Be interesting to see where both main questions go.
390, that do what?
Actually, the schools story is unravelling already:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/public-accounts/2009/11/iraq-inquiry-clegg-brown
If Sion Simon’s epic verse is a film, surely Macintyre is the TV series?
393. MD.
By “Sion Simon’s epic verse”, do you mean:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
?
393. And so James Macintyre adds further to his reputation as a clown.
He’ll be very useful for telling us what’s happening in the Labour Shadow Cabinet next year as he’ll have no access at all to any Tories.
385 - Here’s a cached version of the site from 10 days ago.
http://209.85.229.132/search?q=cache:3k5AKVjF7i8J:www.isfnet.org.uk/+shakhsiyah+foundation&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Here it is today
http://www.isfnet.org.uk/
Conspiracy theory:
Brown’s placemen in the Supreme Court rule in favour of the banks to build public support for greater regulation of them.
On the latest Ballsup it is to be expected that there will be these mistakes going on in his dept when it is headed up by someone who spends his time on other work - getting to be Chancellor. As a direct consequence his officials will be re-routing stuff elsewhere and Balls will be spending only a nanosecond of attention to any papers that come his way. He will also be treating any letters from his opposite number with disdain and delaying responses…..
That all then creates today’s PMQ debacle for Gordon.
395 - Not sure he has any access to them either! Mr “Tony is going to get Euro Prez” is clearly extremely well connected, NOT!
Who is this “Macintyre” who has suddenly appeared on this site ?
392: People saying first! I beleive
401, got to say I’m not a fan of that particularly.
Four hundred and second!
402 I remember when Mr Loony went through a phase of being Last!
403 Only us true geniuses appreciate the joy of coming first, last and many times in between.
403, coming first may feel nice, but it doesn’t necessarily make you very popular.
It seems to have become a little quiet. Are the pbers all busy hunting down school website information?
315.
“The Gordo9000 series is the most reliable computer ever made. No Gordo9000 computer has ever made a mistake or distorted information. We are all, by any practical definition of the words, foolproof and incapable of error.”
Even LabourList has commented on this Hizbut-Tahrir story several weeks ago,
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=8077
after this article in the Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/6427369/Islamists-who-want-to-destroy-the-state-get-100000-funding.html
I can’t believe government have been caught off guard by it, the story was broken a month ago.
407 (correction) Not LabourList, I mean LabourHome.
407 - Makes you wonder whether the Tories brought this up to counter the K~minski/Tory story.
409, hahaha. Aww, timothy, you are a card! You don’t think the Government funding a gang of Islamic lunatics is worthy of being raised on its own?
Next you’ll be suggesting the Tories have nobbled the Chief Rabbi of Poland.
Pienaar mentions the ARS poll. He attributed it to PoliticsHome though…
409 - Wasn’t it because Gove wrote to Eddie, and he hasn’t bothered to reply?
409 - there’s a Kaminski story still? The only person who keeps mentioning it is you. And Gabble, actually. What company to be in.
409. Yes - supporting 9/11 is on a par with being anti-Lisbon.
R5L just mentioned a new poll having come out showing a Tory 17pt lead since the Observer one. I’m in shock. Apparently it came from Politics Home…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article6930463.ece
Daniel Finkelstein article on hung parliaments and the Queen.
410 - I do think its important as I mentioned above, and I’d tend to trust Gove on the issue more than Balls.
409. Cameron has asked questions at PMQs about Hizb-ut-Tahir on at least two previous occasions.
Polling a huge 18% in Scotland shows that the Tories can govern the whole of England.
Scotland is good for the Tories. Their popularity north of the boarder makes the chances of an independent Scotland infinitesimal when Cameron becomes PM. Tranquility will reign as the other 82% of Scottish voters delight in being governed by the English.
Scotland is very good for the Tories.
The Daily Mash - wonderful as ever
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/environment/climate-change-emails-stop-glaciers-from-melting-200911252254/
417: careful tim…thats Browns BFF you’re talking about there.
419 - Labour are currently polling worse than that in the Midlands and the South East; I trust that means they are not fit to govern, either?
422. remember Scotland is “special”.
191 Stuart Dickson and I differ on Perth and Angus but in respect of most other Scottish seats agree. I think the Tories will take back one or other of them because the SNP has already squeezed the anti-Tory vote and clearly some people will come back to the Tories. I could see the SNP vote increase in one of these seats and still lose to the Tories.
The nearest recent case is Galloway in 2007. The former SNP MP and MSP took on the sitting Tory MSP who was defending the smallest majority in Scotland of less than 100. Not only did the SNP fail to take the seat but the Tory majority went from 100 to 3300.
421 - The guy who will know more about this issue than anyone else in the country is Maajid Nawaz of the Quilliam Foundation.
I’ll be interested to see what he has to say.
419 - Change the record, we get it that some Tories on here try and spin everything as positive for them (and the likes of Gabble does it for his side), but it is now beyond tedious.
How true: the Scots must hate being governed by Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling.
@15 7.20am Stuart Dickson writes;
“In fact, that is part of our point about Scottish independence: we Scots can vote any way we like, but the colour of the Union government will always be decided by English voters, whatever we may say”
Excuse me but right now we have a UK government where both the PM and Chancellor are Scottish Labour. If it was only England and Wales wouldn’t we already have a Tory government? i.e. the facts are surely exactly the opposite of what Stuart says.
This is the mindset of the SNP of course. No-one is Scottish who doesn’t support the SNP.
My general point is always that the polls shouldn’t treat Scotland as a “region” anymore than England is a “region”. I remain of the view that the Tories will do well in the Lothians and Borders, whether or not more Labour supportes in Glasgow come back to their party to keep the SNP out.
Indeed I think the Tories will beat Stuart’s mate Calum Cashley in Edinburgh North and Leith, although I think Laza will just hold on. Stuart help me, Calum’s been parachuted in from elsewhere hasn’t he (why? surely not a god idea with Leithers)and what does he do (ever has done) for a living? On his blog he claims to be a “political researcher” - can this be translated as full time SNP employee from public funds?
@50 9.00am Roger.
Believe it not I’m not a member of the Scottish Tory party (actually I’m ex Labour, but now hate all politicians).
However I know plenty of people who are Scottish Tories (virtually all my neighbours for a start because I live in a plush part of Edinburgh.) In terms of “mass” (?) membership the Tories have 4,000 more members than the SNP. So probably depends where you are and who you know. Historically I thought Aberdeen had a big “Liberal” middle class vote, so maybe your mates are now just jumping that particular sinking ship and either going SNP or Labour?
Interesting to see it was a Labour backbencher deploring the Supreme Court ruling on bank charges at PMQ. No doubt the Tories will be opening some champagne with their banker friends over the decision. Wasn’t Angela Knight a Tory MP once?
Interesting little political story from over here,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_Ireland/8378619.stm
What a gift for the headline writers! Sadly I think it will be a case of Another One Bites The Dust rather than We Are The Champions!
I’ll get my coat!
426 - We’ll see.
You have to remeber Gove was the man who recommended to Cameron the divorce from the EPP and the link with the extremists, as focussed on Newsnight will be stinging him.
He’s also very sound on Islamist extremism and briefs Cameron before PMQ’s.
We’ll have to see where the story goes.
409. The kaminski story that you keep going on about despite it being discredited by everyone else. And despite the chief rabbi of poland coming out in support of him. and british jewish organisations saying the government are trying to make political capital out of it.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/11/25/obama-team-and-labour-to-hold-election-talks/
428: Yes..clearly the bankers, the judges and the tory party are all in cahoots…….
“No doubt the Tories will be opening some champagne with their banker friends over the decision”
Anyone with any sense will be pleased. The UK is rather unique in the level of free banking services that it has, and this is partially funded by penalties on people who take money they don’t have without prior consent.
My sympathy for them is limited, and less so if reducing their penalty meant someone like me, who makes an effort to manage their spending properly to avoid going overdrawn, would in future start having to pay for service currently free.
Malcolm, you make Gabble’s posts seem varied.
Please post something that doesn’t have your humorous tag line. Please.
433 - You missed that Rupert Murdoch was also somehow allegedly involved.
Obama is not the UK’s friend…never forget that,
436. What about Baron Samedi and the Illuminati?
434. David.
What rubbish.
The extreme charges are pure profiteering. Talk from the banks of having to charge for standard account usage otherwise is nonsense - just look at the profits they make.
436 I though Murdoch was a giant lizard - have I missed something?
With the Scottish labour party recovering from their defeat in 2007, they now look like the favourites to regain power in the Scots Parliament in 2011.
Faced with being out of power in the UK for 8+ years, will we therefore see a shift in the younger MPs to MSP slots for 2011? Is this why Labour are dragging their feet on the “no 2 seat rule” so that it does not come into effect before the next GE but sometime later?
434 - Rubbish. It is the grasping level that the charges are set at that is truly scandalous. £30 a time for someone on minimum wage is crippling.
I have no real problem with SOME levy on careless use of a bank account but on more than one occasion it has been their delays in processing payments that has caused my account to go overdrawn.
The continued ‘clearing’ period is also a scandal in the 21st century and the banks have been getting away with murder.
I’m a Tory and I am very annoyed about this decision, despite my not having reclaimed bank charges myself.
429 sorry link not working!
Insert ireland instead of Ireland in the link and it should work!
Interesting that the Muslim Public Affairs Committee is firmly behind Cameron’s stance on these schools
http://www.mpacuk.org/story/261009/ht-front-takes-%C2%A3113411-kafir-democracy.html
“The continued ‘clearing’ period is also a scandal in the 21st century”
No arguments from me there, but otherwise I’m afraid I see this as no different to speeding fines; if you don’t want to pay, don’t speed.
325 Labour have made the cynical calculation that there are more Muslim votes than Jewish votes and that it is good tactics to pander to outfits like Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Exactly and well spotted, URW.
This is what the:
- “Gideon” dogwhistling
- al-Qaradawi-fe11ating
- “you’re like a concentration camp guard, aren’t you?” remark to a Jewish reporter
- Michael-Howard-is-a-pig and Michael-Howard-is-Fagin posters, and
- Labour immigration policy since 1997
are / were all about.
UK Jews: ~400,000 and stable
UK Muslims: ~2.4 million and rising
What they lose on the swings they’ll gain many times over on the roundabouts.
It will, however, cause a HAL9000 problem if they try to shoo in either Miliband as leader post-GE.
Perhaps, though, that prospect is the best reason for hoping one of them manages to land the job.
445, MPAC is reckoned to one of the more moderate Muslim groups.
445 - I’d be a bit wary of them as a source of evidence.
A bit like a scrap between the NF and the BNP.
446 and others…. “The continued ‘clearing’ period is also a scandal in the 21st century”
Has anybody, anywhere, ever heard a credible defence of this?
“Faced with being out of power in the UK for 8+ years, will we therefore see a shift in the younger MPs to MSP slots for 2011?”
I hope so.
The standard of Welsh Labour AMs & Scottish Labour MSPs is truly dire.
It may be that a crushing Labour defeat and an obvious long haul back to power will encourage the capable & ambitious in the Labour Party to run Scotland and Wales instead.
Bank charges etc
With respect, the case was about the OFT’s right to examine the level of bank charges. The court found that the this is not in the OFT’s remit. It was not about whether the charges were right or wrong (and on the specific point as to whether they amounted to a penalty, that was not even appealed). It’s clear that journalists, let alone the public, fail to understand distinctions.
448 - Is it hell, its run by a funder of David Irving
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/nov/19/secondworldwar.religion
448 ‘Moderate’in the sense of running short of bullets?
450 Nope. It’s simply how they make more money as it disappears into the ether for 4 days.
449 tim
Oh, I don’t trust MPAC for a second.
But it is interesting nevertheless that there are clear differences in the Islamic political scene and that prominent Muslim political organizations back Cameron’s stance.
Thing is David your arguments would have much more force if each and every taxpayer hadn’t bailed out the banks to the tune of £4,500 per head, with perhaps more to come. Rather different level of waste/recklessness on their part to someone on a low wage going a bit beyond their overdraft limit.
The banks seem to want to have it all ways, and the politicians (all parties) and judges are allowing them to hold us all to ransom.
453: I guess the word ‘moderate’ is relative.
456, a problem of Islam is that not only do many of its followers believe they (and other religious types) should have their beliefs held above criticism or ridicule, but that they often refuse to attack one another as it’s considered to be disunited and not the way to behave.
OT I am having a hoot this afternoon catching up some Climategate US coverage - there are some very exercised people out there.
Rush is very OTT but I can see why he’s such a powerful voice - he sounds like a firenbrimstone preacher. Glad he’s on my side of the argument.
450 PtP “Has anybody, anywhere, ever heard a credible defence of this?”
Yes. It goes along the lines of “We saw an opportunity to grab some free money so we did.”
It’s very credible IMO.
451. Gwynfa - “It may be that a crushing Labour defeat and an obvious long haul back to power will encourage the capable & ambitious in the Labour Party to run Scotland and Wales instead.”
The only problem with that is: where are you going to find a capable person in the Scottish or Welsh Labour parties?
Jim Murphy, err… then… err… errr… errrrrr
(help me out someone)
451. Is “capable” and “in the Labour Party” an oxymoron.
446. David.
I’m interested that you concede by analogy
that the bank charges are punitive, and hence illegal.
459 - The MPAC and HT have been at war with each other for years.
HT preach none engagement in the democratic process.
MPAC believe in engagiin in anti semitic election campaigns aimed secondarily at mosque elders.
462: Do you have a bromance with Jim Murphy Stuart?
464 The analogy was for something that was avoidable, as you well know.
466, bromance?
370. LOL, made me laugh.
This could be a very cunning Tory attack line.
Balls, being doctrinaire, inept, and close to Broon, is exactly the kind of muppet minister they should be able to take down. Taking out Balls so soon after McBride will seriously destabilise MacSporran.
But looking past the GE, you wouldn’t want to take Balls down so hard that he’s no longer a leadership contender. A Balls- or Harman-led post-GE Labour party would be the stuff of Tory dreams.
So what better way to leverage him, both before and after the GE, than to expose his funding of Islamofascists through the schools budget?
It will damage Labour at the polling booth, but won’t bother the Labour selectorate at all, meaning they could easily put Balls in charge and thus ensure another Labour cataclysm in 2014/5.
I see that al beeb continues with its interest in polls…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm
468: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bromance
433.”For Labour, Lord Mandelson, Foreign Secretary David Miliband, general election coordinator Douglas Alexander and Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy are scheduled to be there.”
What an interesting team.
460 - Rush is very OTT but I can see why he’s such a powerful voice - he sounds like a firenbrimstone preacher. Glad he’s on my side of the argument.
If you’re going to get in bed with Rush Limbaugh and Glen Beck then at least use their surnames.
You’ll hate yourself in the morning anyway.
470, someone should tell them to add Angus Reid to the polling firms.
The state of affairs for President Obama according to USA Today/Gallup, as he celebrates ten months in power:
In this poll of adults (Democrats invariably do better in polls of adults, as opposed to registered or likely voters), his overall approval rating stands at 50%. Furthermore,
“By more than 2-1, Americans say the United States shouldn’t close the terrorist prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, as Obama has promised.
By 49%-44%, they oppose passing a health care bill in Congress this year, which he calls critical.
A majority are against holding the trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in New York, and nearly six in 10 say the self-proclaimed 9/11 mastermind should be tried in a military rather than a civilian court. That’s at odds with the decision announced this month by Attorney General Eric Holder.
When it comes to seven specific areas, Obama no longer commands majority support on any. On only two — energy policy and global warming — does he have a net positive rating. On the economy, health care, jobs and Afghanistan, a majority disapprove of how he’s doing. There’s an almost even divide on his handling of terrorism: 45% approve, 47% disapprove.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-11-24-Poll_N.htm
An amazing shift from where we stood those ten months ago, as Obama was giving his Inaugural Address to rapturous applause from nearly all quarters. Happy Turkey Day, Mr. President!
When was the Prime Minister made aware of the £62bn emergency loan to RBS and HBOS?
…The PMOS will tell the lobby this afternoon what the PM knew, and when.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:d38b917b-dc91-4f59-b59f-efefafd8773a
Seems the PMOS didn’t know this morning….
475. “On only two — energy policy and global warming — does he have a net positive rating.”
The global warming rating must be on thin ice if he continues to support the cult of Warmisim.
451 and 462 For the SNP to resist the Labour tide they will need to launch an all out attack to link the responsibility for the depth of the recession and the depth of the cuts that come directly to Labour. What I suggest that the SNP had hoped to do was to blame the cuts on the incoming Conservative Govt and drive the Independence debate that way. Independence now looks a dead issue for another 10 years, so the SNP need to alter their strategy and see off the Labour surge. They do have a stronger membership, but lack the Unions money.
477. boom boom
477 I would love to be a fly on the wall for the Copenhagen PR team.
Talk about a complete nightmare
479. There is nothing funny about killing polar bears by dropping them out of planes - you should be ashamed of yourself.
479 Perhaps Obama should start wearing a polar bear suit?
481: Its ok they bounce…thats why you get two booms.
481 I have to say that was probably one of the most misguided adverts of recent years.
476.”Seems the PMOS didn’t know this morning….”
In light of the news coming out yesterday, I am surprised that they didn’t think to get themselves briefed on this issue.
484. Sign of desperation, I’d guess.
Actually wait..sorry I seem to have wandered in half way..
Whats killing polar bears from planes?
Paul Waugh on Chilcot’s uselessness
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/chilcots-squeezed-lemon-and-other-nonquestions-1.html
The jet wing man doesn’t get in the air under his own power: he jumps out of an aeroplane - what a swizz.
487 http://plato-says.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-is-it-with-greenies-and-offensive.html
At the moment Labour has 355 MPs: 40 Scots
After the next election it could be more like 200 MPs: 40 Scots.
That’s the most extreme scenario but what would this do to the dynamic of the Labour party in Westminster? No doubt Salmond will want to take the fight to Cameron on any spending cuts planned. But I can’t see how Labour can try and defend cuts in Scotland if the same cuts are going on elsewhere. There’s also the WLQ, which although Cameron isn’t getting excited about, isn’t going to go away.
490: hmmm yes that is nasty.
#477. GHF
Quite, it will be interesting to see how the CRU fraud pans out.
slightly O/T but think “Bishop Hill” is by far the best Scottish political blog (no mee hasten to add) and is best with the fraud. (It has links to all the hundreds of emails by catagory and precis content.)
BH has a link to the funniest youtube “Hide the decline” from Minnesotans for Global Warming. think this makes all the downfall one’s pretty time in comparison. Hide the Decline has only been going for 8 hours I think but predict it will become an internet phenomenon.
Would love to see a Scottish version featuring wee eck. Alas personally have neither the IT skills or the money.
462 “The only problem with that is: where are you going to find a capable person in the Scottish or Welsh Labour parties?”
I am not intending to vote Labour in the forseeable future — but I think there are some capable people in the Labour Party (as there are in all parties). E.g., if Nick Palmer were a tiny bit less in the thrall of the party line, he could be quite good.
If England moves sharply to the Tories, whereas Scotland and Wales do not, it may not necessarily benefit the Nationalists. One can imagine a catastrophe at the GE generating a more aggressively Welsh-focussed Labour party or Scottish-focused Labour Party, in whose interests the capturing and the running of the Gov’ts in Cardiff and Edinburgh is a very high priority.
As it is in their interests, Labour will then obviously want to wrest as much power from Westminster, and be as awkward & bloody-minded as possible to Cameron’s UK gov’t — which will probably play very well to the more general Welsh/Scottish electorate, and undermine the Nationalists.
I wonder whether a consequence of a general election debacle for Labour in 2010 will be a return to government in Edinburgh and Cardiff in 2011.
Tories receiving more donations than Labour
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-receiving-more-donations-than-labour-1827252.html
I am not surprised by the polling for Scotland and it is less to do with the Tories than the local vote factor. Gordon Brown pumped billions into the Scottish banks to stop them going bankrupt. This one action probably saved 10 Labour Scottish seats if not more.
The SNP has not had a good recession. Alex Salmond seems lost when it comes around to ideas about getting the private sector working again. I have just come out of a meeting with a number of local CEOs who were scratching their heads about the actions of the SNP and Scottish Enterprise.
The Tory base is very strong in Scotland but also very niche. Scottish Tories in general watch rugby, play golf and send their kids to private school or they live in the country. There is little crossover into the mainstream.
The main hope for the Tories in Scotland is a Tory Westminster Government that comes up with new ideas to get the economy moving in Scotland. This is probably best done by cutting business and employment taxes and squeezing the SNP budget. I see no great alliance betweeen the Tories and the SNP but instead a massive fight.
490 – It takes a certain genius* to come up with a propaganda ad like that..!
* one sick puppy.
496.”The main hope for the Tories in Scotland is a Tory Westminster Government that comes up with new ideas to get the economy moving in Scotland. This is probably best done by cutting business and employment taxes”
Very astute, and its the one announcement I would like to hear this side of a GE.
495: And how much of the labour ‘donations’ are actually converted loans (for which the money will have already been spent)?
484. But the timing was exquisite - the day before Warmergate broke
Council suspends funding to schools linked to Hizb ut-Tahrir
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6475214/Council-suspends-funding-to-schools-linked-to-Hizb-ut-Tahrir.html
Daily Mash: WEREWOLVES WIN RIGHT TO TEAR YOUR HEAD OFF
“BRITAIN’S werewolves today won the right to tear your head off, rip open your chest and hungrily devour your still-beating heart.
In a surprise move the Supreme Court ruled that the werewolves’ relentless, blood thirsty carnage was within the law and should not be investigated by the Office of Fair Trading.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/werewolves-win-right-to-tear-your-head-off-200911252257/
491. Yes - if Scottish MPs are banned from voting on English only matters then the Con majority for eg Healthcare in England could be much bigger.
494. Well they still basically ARE in government in Wales. However I think there are serious dangers for Labour in focusing too much on Scotland and Wales. Particularly Scotland given the increasing resentment about funding arrangements - something which will only get highlighted by cuts.
Labour could act as you say (and I suggest sign their own death warrant in the process). Still, I suppose if they’d rather be a provincial party that’s up to them.
Mirror article on IHT:
David Cameron and Tory pals to make £7million from inheritance tax changes if they get elected
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/11/25/old-pals-tax-115875-21848294/
491.”That’s the most extreme scenario but what would this do to the dynamic of the Labour party in Westminster? No doubt Salmond will want to take the fight to Cameron on any spending cuts planned.”
The SNP have a wee problem there that they are hoping no one will mention…
Shadow leaders shy away from David Cameron’s Tory radical
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6930464.ece
501, shocking PMQs to have, as Andrew Neil said, two scoops, and big ones at that.
Brown had no clue about either. Surprised Balls didn’t give him a heads up on Hizb ut-Tahrir, and that Brown didn’t know about the protocol from Clegg.
505.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/11/a-number-of-the-shadow-cabinet-have-done-well-for-themselves-and-your-point-is.html
“how grotesque a distortion it is to suggest that removing some of the tax that bereaved relatives are forced to pay on money which has already been taxed once or twice - possibly even three times - is somehow “making money ?”
Parties to reveal how many female and ethnic minority would-be MPs they reject
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6652224/Parties-to-reveal-how-many-female-and-ethnic-minority-would-be-MPs-they-reject.html
507: Are you just going to spam random headlines? Even gabble gives some context for his rantings.
494 Correct — I meant to type “majority Gov’t.”
Iraq inquiry: Tony Blair told ‘days before invasion’ WMD had been dismantled
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/6652310/Iraq-inquiry-Tony-Blair-told-days-before-invasion-WMD-had-been-dismantled.html
It’s scandalous that the BBC website is so slow.
There is still no story about Labour’s allged funding of Hizb-ut-Tahrir schools, more than two hours after the question was asked.
Cameron - still seemingly scared to ask questions about the economy.
Doubtless back to the safety of asking Qs on Afghanistan next week.
Poor, very poor.
513. Is there a reason for all this bold-type spamming?
502 Daily Mash hit the nail on the head. We have an Office of Fair Trading that is unable to enforce fair trading. Maybe they should just be abolished and we save the money? It is all a bit like the land of make believe… Or renamed the “Office of Getting Screwed”?
Mike - can we have a ban on shouting please?
515, peter from putney, is that an attempt at irony?
515, disagree. A few safe questions on floods is fair enough, and the Hizb ut-Tahrir line is a splash. Plus it hit Brown in a blind spot.
515: Any questions on the economy is just tractor statted away with no real attempt to answer the question.
What was the protocol mistake with Clegg?
516 - Just picking up some stories from the press. Various people do it on here. The IHT story is clearly going to be one that Labour push and push. I don’t think it will get traction, but it is one the Tories really do need to shut down.
On the funding issue, I think we’ll see a renewed attack on that. With these kind of figures we will see renewed attacks.
On the ethnic minority MPs, this explains the sudden movement by Team Cameron IMHO on the issue.
521, I think the Christmas card/IHT soundbite was ready for an economic final answer.
515,516 Snap!
477- It should also be very worrying for Obama that issues on which he receives greatest support (albeit still not majority support) are those issues that are currently of least importance to people. His higher (although still poor) approval on issues of lesser concern is likely influenced by people’s general affection for Obama as a person (personal approval), rather than their considered opinions on what he has done on those issues. That shows what is left of the early phenomenon of his personal approval ratings driving approval on issues.
524. Co-ordinated attack from Mirror, Mail and PMQs.
Fightback no 3,023 in motion - lucky for DC he didn’t stick to the script.
509 - I tend to agree with this point of view. I want to see a stronger rebuttal from the Tories…
521. He might not get a good answer but he could improve his own credibility.
506 Lol at the link.
This is the first ruling by the Supreme Court that is likely to be noticed by the public at large and it will not have gone down well with them. I am sure many will note Lord Phillips is clearly is keen to maintain the system whereby he as a wealthy man can maintain a free bank account at the expense of those who are struggling to meet their monthly bills and have been unfortunate enough occasionally to dip into the red. Such people are often not permitted by the Banks to borrow on an authorised basis because of their perceived risk and often face charges on charges as their position worsens.
#428 Mark Edinburgh
You say “If it was only England and Wales wouldn’t we already have a Tory government? i.e. the facts are surely exactly the opposite of what Stuart says.2
No they are not: I will partly repost what I wrote earlier as presumably you did not read it:
“…Labour polled seventy thousand fewer votes in England than the Conservatives, BUT they won ninety-two more seats
Therefore the Scots had, as usual, nothing fundamental to do with there being a Labour government in England.
Your complaint should be against FPTP…..”
29
“He might not get a good answer but he could improve his own credibility.”
No, some prat on here would just say, “Didn’t lay a glove on him”.
530 I’m just glad that everybody I know got their charges back a couple of years ago.
SiL got £3000, missus £500.
I didn’t get any back because I’ve not incurred any since 1986.
530 “unfortunate enough occasionally to dip into the red”
This simply will not do.
There is nothing ‘unfortunate’ about taking what is not yours. The carelessness with which some people seem to think they can ‘borrow’ (it’s more akin to stealing) without permission and then not have to pay for the privilege is shocking.
On Warmergate an amazing find from Burning our Money
http://burningourmoney.blogspot.com/2007/06/bbc-bias.html
from BBC Trust’s report on “Safeguarding impartiality in the 21st century” regarding AGW.
“The BBC has held a high-level seminar with some of the best scientific experts, and has come to the view that the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus.”
Re 450 Bank clearing period
The Competition Commission report on banking some years ago explained that the only “free float” money that banks benefit from was in the standing orders clearing cycle not in the cheque clearing cycle. I believe the standing order situation has now changed.
There is an issue about the amout of time (3/4days) it takes for a payment into one bank being “cleared” as valid by another bank. Payments between Lloyds Bank customers have been instantaneous (once they reach the bank) for some years.
What people forget is that instantaneous bank clearing takes money out of your account instantaneously. On average business accounts benefit and personal accounts suffer because most cheques are from personal accounts to business accounts.
When Lloyds first introduced “instant” clearing for Lloyds payments paid into another Lloyds account a Senior Civil Servant was embarrassed when lunching the PM (Tony Blair) because his debit card payment for the lunch was not accepted due to a payment he made earlier in the day being instantly cleared out of his account!
David Cameron and Tory pals to make £7million from inheritance tax changes if they get elected by SthLondon Nick November 25th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Only if they are dead at the time.
531 Actually his complaint should be against the 2005 Tory Party for having such a dumb strategy of piling up huge majorities in southern seats rather than having a balanced appeal across the country.
Back in 1992 the electoral system was supposed to have a balance in favour of the Tories that ruled out a majority Labour govt. And then along came Blair.
If the polls are right they will probably stop complaining after the next election.
527 - Definitely this is the line of attack that they will take. Merge that in with Table 9 of the ARS poll and I’m not sure where this is going to go. This would suggest that the low income floating groups that this would resonate with are not likely to vote Tory. They are shown as most likely to waver towards the LibDems. Why pursue a line that may not appeal beyond a certain demographic and offend another so much?
RE: SNP & PC
Both the nationalist parties are finding out that it is easier to criticise the governing party and promote grandiose plans when in opposition, in the knowledge that they will not be put into practice forthwith.
However, when in government or even sharing in government (as with PC in Wales) then things become much more difficult and there are such things as events and budgets.
It is probable that the weakness of both these parties regarding economic development could well limit their aspirations.
In Wales PC does not really have a clue regarding economic development - this morning on BBC Breakfast, PC’s Helen Mary Jones was arguing for extra powers for Wales so that “we can protect Wales from a Tory government”. Has she thought on which government will WAG depend for funding?
So whilst both parties may gain a few seats at the GE, their aspirations may be limited by their lack of capabilities and vision.
David Cameron and Tory pals to make £7million from inheritance tax changes if they get elected
by SthLondon Nick November 25th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
They will, of course, have to be dead at the time.
#424 Easterross
“The nearest recent case is Galloway in 2007. The former SNP MP and MSP took on the sitting Tory MSP who was defending the smallest majority in Scotland of less than 100. Not only did the SNP fail to take the seat but the Tory majority went from 100 to 3300.#
Not surprisingly I agree with Stuart Dickson and not with yourself.
I do not think Galloway is comparable with Angus or Perth and Kinross except in so far as it argues against your conclusion.
As you point out the INCUMBENT won in Galloway, as will the SNP incumbents win in Angus & Perth.
The electorate may also have been aware that the SNP candidate was likely to be elected on the list (as he was) whereas the Tory would not have been (as he did not stand on the list).
The electorate therefore managed to get both these quality people into Holyrood.
535 WTF?!?!?!!?
No wonder there were so many peeps saying they were biased - it wasn’t our imagination after all
536 Thanks David. That’s the first coherent explanation I’ve heard so far.
Wonder why the banks don’t explain that themselves? Maybe it’s stirring a little hornets’ nest?
540. Yes PC tend to be very embarassing on economic issues.
“They will, of course, have to be dead at the time.”
Pah. The Tories are the undead, so that’s no barrier.
May I just say how broadly I smiled when Dick Bacon got totally squashed by the SNP chappy on R5
Hilarious - truly put in his gobby place.
546 A bit harsh on the undead there David.
#540 Financier
Talking of SNP & PC you say:
“It is probable that the weakness of both these parties regarding economic development could well limit their aspirations.”
There is no justification for that comment. The SNP is the only party lead by an economist in the United Kingdom.
547, bugger, beat me to it. I was just going to comment on how R5 will look with Bacon in the Mayo slot, not very inspiring is the most charitable description I can come up with.
He has been dire throughout the day.
542 Tom we shall see. I think you ascribe too much sophistication to the voters in Galloway in 2007. They simply didnt want the SNP to win even though the SNP thought they had romped home.
I can never understand why Labour keep banging on about Inheritance Tax. To some degree they are equally culpable.
When Gordon panicked in October 2007 he made it possible to transfer unused Inheritance Tax threshold from a late spouse or civil partner to the second spouse or civil partner. This move effectively doubled the Inheritance Tax threshold of the second partner - from £325,000 to as much as £650,000.
549: Tom.
Please evidence instances of that person’s economic brilliance and how that person has expanded employment in Scotland.
544. IIRC the process of cheque clearing still entails the pieces of paper being bagged up and physically posted from one place to another, and this represents a large chunk of the time the money is out of circulation.
I don’t know what happens to it during this hiatus but one would have thought technology would have made the clearing interval shorter. Instead it seems to have got longer. I can see why there might genuinely need to be a clearing period but does anyone know why it would get longer? I am sure it used to be 3 days and that nowadays it is 4 or even 5?
Still no BBC website story on Labour’s Islamic extremist schools.
The website is really the weakest link in the BBC news setup. It’s a total omnishambles.
“The SNP is the only party lead by an economist …”
More accurately, the SNP is lead by a former economist of the Royal Bank Of Scotland ….
Perhaps this is not something to brag about!
After all, as late as Aug 8th 2008, Salmond was still bragging that RBS was “one of the highest-performing financial institutions in the world” (Source: The Times)
Isn’t Vince Cable effectively running the Lib Dems?
553. The trouble with Salmond’s being an economist is that he must be aware that a lot of the stuff he comes out with, notably about Scotland’s prospects as an independent nation funded by North Sea oil and gas, is based on a very questionable approach to oil economics.
If you’d like to sign the No 10 petition to : suspend the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia from preparation of any Government Climate Statistics until the various allegations have been fully investigated by an independent body
http://tinyurl.com/ygugt9n
513 - Compare and contrast:
Mr Dowse said he had not placed any great significance on the 45-minute claim at the time, as he assumed it to refer to battlefield weapons, rather than inter-state missiles.
He said: “When I saw the report I didn’t give it any particular significance because it didn’t seem out of line with what we generally assessed to be Iraq’s capability in terms of weapons.
“I assumed it was referring to multi-barrelled rocket launchers that could be rapidly deployed in a battlefield. It subsequently took on a rather iconic status that I didn’t think those of us who saw the initial report gave it.”
with this:
As a result of the intelligence we judge that Iraq has:
* continued to produce chemical and biological agents;
* military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, including against its own Shia population. Some of these weapons are deployable within 45 minutes of an order to use them.
Iraq dossier - executive summary 24/09/02
http://www.number10.gov.uk/Page281
556. Gwynfa
RBS were one of the highest performing financial institutions in the world. Highest performing at losing money to be precise.
513 - Compare and contrast:
Mr Dowse said he had not placed any great significance on the 45-minute claim at the time, as he assumed it to refer to battlefield weapons, rather than inter-state missiles.
He said: “When I saw the report I didn’t give it any particular significance because it didn’t seem out of line with what we generally assessed to be Iraq’s capability in terms of weapons.
“I assumed it was referring to multi-barrelled rocket launchers that could be rapidly deployed in a battlefield. It subsequently took on a rather iconic status that I didn’t think those of us who saw the initial report gave it.”
with this:
As a result of the intelligence we judge that Iraq has:
* continued to produce chemical and biological agents;
* military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, including against its own Shia population. Some of these weapons are deployable within 45 minutes of an order to use them.
Iraq dossier - executive summary 24/09/02
556 Surely most sensible people pay electronically whenever possible these days. When I paid my dues to OGH a few days ago, my bank said it would arrive instantaneously - hope it did Mike, you never said!
Ten years ago, I would go through around 5 x 25 cheque books per annum, now it’s less than one per annum.
This is the “teacher training” course that the alleged Hizb-ut-Tahrir school advertizes (from their website)
http://home.btconnect.com/ISF/form/ITEC%20-%20Course%20Handbook%202009.pdf
#553 Financier
As you admit to hating all politicians there is probably little point in indulging you.
However, if as you appear to, want someone who might have an understanding of economics in charge of economic matters perhaps you could point me to another Scottish politician as well qualified for the task as Salmond. I await yor alternative candidate(s) with interest.
Here is a brief biography:
Salmond attended Linlithgow Academy and the University of St Andrews, where he graduated with an MA in Economics and History.
He was first employed as an assistant economist in the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries for Scotland from 1978.
In 1980, he joined the Royal Bank of Scotland, for which he worked until 1987, first as an assistant economist, then as the Oil Economist and latterly as Royal Bank Economist.
While with the Royal Bank, he wrote and broadcast extensively for both domestic and international outlets. He also contributed regularly to oil and energy conferences.
In 1983 he devised the “Royal Bank / BBC Oil Index”, which continues monthly publication to this day.
I see climategate is already clocking 808k results in Google - not bad for about 4 days and hardly a peep in the MSM except Fox.
547,plato,I listened to the interview on radio 5 with leftie bacon having a go at the snp man and bacon got well put in his place,well done the snp man.
#553 Financier
Apologies. I have confused your attitude to politicians with Mark from Edinburgh.
My general point remains about Salmond, of course-so I look forward to your alternative candidate(s)
561
To be fair (God have mercy) the second does not preclude the first.
It would also be in line with past Iraqi actions.
But
In Blair’s HoC performance; his words juxtaposed with the Iraqi Dossier give a totally false impression.
Plausible deniability is the escape route…
GM Europe axing 9000 jobs - nothing yet on how many in the UK
Obama is going to Copenhagen - clearly his political antennae are either as crap as Gordon’s or his attempt to squash the firestorm.
555 Wibbler said -Still no BBC website story on Labour’s Islamic extremist schools.
I did briefly see a ticker on the Beeb website however it wasn’t a clickable link, it has now disappeared to be replaced with ‘Gordon Brown pledges help for Cumbria flood victims’.
re 4`15. I think they were referring to the PB Angus Reid poll which had a 17% Tory leader and was one week and one day later
569 - Dyed - The German plants are to remain open.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8378252.stm
“David Cameron and Tory pals to make £7million from inheritance tax changes if they get elected”
by SthLondon Nick November 25th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
“They will, of course, have to be dead at the time.”
by Witan November 25th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
By the looks of Gordon his family are more likely to have a £1m IHT problem earlier if Sarah also passes on. I would give Cameron and Osborne 20 more yrs beyond when Brown snuffs it.
#558 John R
“The trouble with Salmond’s being an economist is that he must be aware that a lot of the stuff he comes out with, notably about Scotland’s prospects as an independent nation funded by North Sea oil and gas, is based on a very questionable approach to oil economics.”
Not half as questionable as the UK Governments of whatever hue which have been telling Scots for general election after election that the oil is just about to run out.
Why do you think Norway has barely had a recession and is already planning to raise interst rates-could it be something to do with oil and using it for the benefit of its 4 million people rather than wasting it on wars and Trident?
569 Those 9000 mighty include the whole of SAAB.
570- Plato
Obama must hope that his second trip to Copenhagen ends up being more productive thant the IOC one…
526 - Stars and Stripes
Did you see the Rasmussen Giuliani/Gillibrand poll?
Giuliani 53 Gillibrand 40
This is MUCH better for Giuliani than what I expected.
If confirmed by other pollsters, I don’t see how Giuliani will resist the friendly pressure to stand. This would definitely imply a large money drain for the Dems national effort next year…
http://twitter.com/BBCLauraK/status/6051834898
564. Which I think makes Salmond a tiddler among amoebae.
You know Brown had a bad PMQs when even Lloyd Evans throws around words like ’shameless’:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5570753/a-game-of-chess.thtml
573 hmmmm, not so good for the UK then maybe.
Tim - Re our bet, I have emailed PtP
561 - Again the details on this are no surprise. It is clear that any flexibility was removed from the evidence to produce a firmer dossier. I’m not quite sure that we will find the “smoking gun” (apologies for the pun) as we know so much.
On the other points, Richard Bacon is just awful at this afternoon show. Mayo is an expert at teasing out the really good stuff. Bacon is good at shouting people down. It seems like he takes his Thick of It role too seriously when it comes to interviewing. There is no point bringing someone on to be interviewed and then not let them get a word in at all.
564: Tom
Please show me the evidence that I hate all politicians, In fact I do not hate anyone. So please do not try to spin words into my mouth.
You do not seem to realise that there is a great gulf between qualifications and economic theory and actually evolving a successful policy that will encourage the development of businesses that will provide employment and so generate the taxes that will pay for public sector expenditure.
It is very easy to do macroeconomics for sectors of industry and devise indices (I have done it myself, I have also lectured to the great and good and the not-so-good and chaired Inertergovernmental committees) but that probably would not quaify me to be an entrepreneur.
It is far more difficult to build a business, fund it and expand it despite all the taxes and regulation that HMG puts in your way.
I will decline your offer to nominate other Scots as that is not my forte, and will leave that to the Scots who post here, like Easterross, Stuart D. ChristianaD - apologies if I have omitted anyone.
I await with interest your examples of Mr Salmond’s economic policies that have fostered the expansion in the business community and employment in Scotland, and certainly outside of the oil-sector which was already peaked before he came into power.
How did PMQs go? Did Gordon follow up last week’s barnstorming performance of the millennium with another masterclass?
583 Agreed - he is totally unsuited to this format and audience - he’s a self-obsessed idiot.
I still can’t get over how much attention he gave himself when he had a bad throat and someone rang in and said it sounded like he had polyps.
He must have spent about 30% of every broadcast giving us a blow by blow account of his health. His best broadcasting month was the one when he couldn’t talk.
567 Tom
Our posts “crossed” - apologies accepted.
578 - Saw that with the Telegraph story at 501. Not quite sure what mileage Cameron intended to get out of it. It certainly put Brown onto his back foot. I saw it comes back to the original banning suggestions back in 2007.
586 Plato “I still can’t get over how much attention he gave himself when he had a bad throat and someone rang in and said it sounded like he had polyps.”
Did anyone recommend that he take a powder?
Brown is up to something. He’s going on about Catholic Royals again, after suddenly bringing it up once before in March:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6931557.ece
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/mar/27/gordon-brown-royal-succession
Tony coming to visit, or something?
588 Two years of telling Gordon who a terrorist supporting group are and he still has not cracked down on them shows how bad he is. Maybe he should have called one of these Cobra meetings? tacky Jacquie squirmed on DP today over the lack of attention. Andrew Neil kept reminding her that she used to be a Home Secretary.
589 I think he’s already tried cocaine
593 Don’t hold out much hope for the Inquiry on basis of a less than stellar performance in questioning by the Board (doesn’t help that they seem on first name terms with the questioned). Its a shame because IMHO the duty of laying out the truth is owed to the dead and wounded, primarily ours but also the Iraqis and others.
It’s to them, not politicians, voters, reporters et al with their own axes to grind but simply to them that the truth is owed, unvarnished and clear.
590 I thought that was a very strange topic to wander onto. Even if they change the accession - it won’t apply for about 70yrs.
592 Plato I know……..
This could be fun
The need for HBOS to take a covert emergency loan from the bank of England was “abundantly clear” to Lloyds shareholders prior to the merger of the two banks, the Chief Executive of the FSA has said.
Answering MPs’ questions at the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon, Hector Sants, pointed to documents available before the merger which stated HBOS was likely to be insolvent without central bank assistance.
“It makes completely clear that it is depenedent on funding and it makes particularly clear in the HBOS document that was available before the shareholders voted, that without that funding it was likely that the company would be insolvent,” he said.
From the comments
It appears that Mr Sants is a member of Orwell’s Insoc “inner party”. He is able to believe in two incompatible ideas at the same time without acknowledgement of the inconsistency.
(1) The loans were “secret”
(2) The loans were abundantly clear to over 2 million people (the Lloyds shaeholder register)
Obviously one of these statements is untrue. Obviously any sane individual would realise this.
So is it unreasonable to question Mr Sants sanity? Or should we question his honesty?
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/hbos_problems_abundantly_clear_to_lloyds_shareholders_claims_sants.html
577- Interestingly, the New York Daily News has already “outed” Giuliani as a candidate in the Senate race, although he has yet to announce anything. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see him dodge the race, but of course I hope he jumps in. You are almost certainly right in your suggestion that his belief in the winnability of the race will be the determining factor as to whether he will actually run or not.
One other interesting tidbit I’ve stumbled upon. The rumors are swirling that the GOP governor of North Dakota, John Hoeven, will likely run against incumbent senator Byron Dorgan, declaring his intentions in January. In a recent poll, Hoeven won the hypothetical matchup against the incumbent, 55% to 36%:
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/article_7a8e75fe-d63a-11de-98d5-001cc4c002e0.html
575. Don’t you get it? We English are just stringing you along - until we’ve taken ALL your oil to pay for our wars and Domes and Olympics and stuff.
The arrangement is temporary. As the last drop of the black stuff is sucked from the Shetland sea-bed, WE are going to declare YOU independent, and leave you to prosper from your turnip exports.
Thanks for tolerating this.
#584 Financier
A few quick thoughts on yor comment below:
“I await with interest your examples of Mr Salmond’s economic policies that have fostered the expansion in the business community and employment in Scotland, and certainly outside of the oil-sector which was already peaked before he came into power.”
From April 1, 2009 many small businesses pay no rates In Scotland.
From April 1, 2009 tens of thousands of small businesses pay no rates at all under the Scottish Government’s small business bonus scheme.
If unconstrained by the devolution settlement the Scottish Goverment would reduce corporation tax substantially to attract investment.
It is also wrong to ignore oil-it will be around for another 50 years or so at least and as there is less of it so its value per barrel will rise.
SeanT, when I lived in Cornwall, the locals went on at great length about how they were Cornish and not English. Perhaps it’s about time we TOLD you, we were making you independent and leaving you to live on your piskie dust exports.
535. It’s not the job of the BBC to judge the scientific evidence for itself and *then* proclaim how much airtime it will give an argument.
It’s a public service broadcaster. Its remit is to ensure that all points of views are fairly representated in proportion to the diversity and balance of opinion in the general populace.
Polls taken over the last few years in the UK have shown that ~40% of the British population do not believe AGW is happening.
It will be hard for the BBC to justify itself to the Licence Fee payer if it starts ignoring that.
578 - That was in the Telegraph at the time.
600. SeanT is very much the Sean Connery of Cornish nationalism.
588 - TC. Whilst I can understand the basic premise, what he has risked is it getting lost in the fog over the fact that the school funding was suspended. He could get some traction on the issue of funding was started after the promise to look at banning them, as long as that was the case…
#598
Hi SeanT
That is certainly what your politicians are up to, though at least Andy Murray is getting some use from the former Millenium dome-hope he puts it to better use later in the week
Ha - Dick Bacon is even being slapped down by a jazz guest “Well if you don’t go to any jazz things how do you know?”
600 - London should be offloading the non-productive bits of the UK (henceforth to be known as “the Rump”). This would consist of everything outside the M25. Candidly, everything outside Zone 2 is borderline.
“It’s not the job of the BBC to judge the scientific evidence for itself and *then* proclaim how much airtime it will give an argument. ”
It is, rather - it has to make editorial decisions about what it will cover. It may get it wrong of course, although in this case I’m not sure that it has.
Another “trick” the BBC likes to play - actually, I think they more don’t even think it’s an issue - is during debates on the EU.
They invite 1 x LD, 1 x Labour, 1 x Journalist (often left-wing) and 1 x Tory onto Newsnight, or whatever.
Net result?
The three europhiles on the panel end up shouting the one eurosceptic down.
Yes, strictly speaking it is *party* politically balanced, but is it fairly balanced given that ~60-70% of the population are eurosceptic?
608 No it’s not. And even if it was the proportion of 95% to 5% is being generous to their coverage.
580: ‘You know Brown had a bad PMQs when even Lloyd Evans throws around words like ’shameless’’
Thanks for the link. I was particular interested in this:
‘A question about Islamist murderers transformed into an attack on Tory tax reforms. Brown’s priorities couldn’t be clearer.’
So not only is Brown continuing with the Cameron-is-political-corrupt onslaught but he’s adapted it. The intention is now to instill in the public that Cameron’s criminality equates to that of an Islamist terrorist! I imagine Gordon enjoyed all this and had a huge grin on his face as he said it. Labour’s tactics are certainly getting more brutal by the day, and it’s difficult to see where now - if anywhere - they will draw the line.
608- That’s why it’s dangerous to have political partisans that are all (or nearly all) of one stripe running a public news organization; their judgment as to what is credible and deserves airtime is inevitably skewed (either intentionally or unintentionally). That is the primary way they can then shape the opinions of their viewers.
611 Well that’s a one track mind for you.
608 - Of course thats right.
They realise they let gave the conspiracy loons far too much coverage over MMR.
New thread up
612 Try this - the coverage of climategate in the US - the same can be said for Oz broadcasters too.
Cue tim making an insulting personal remark about me.
http://www.eyeblast.tv/public/checker.aspx?v=GdqGaGqG2G
New thread
600. In my experience plenty of those are home counties emigrés who move down there and then reinvent themselves as Cornish. Normally one or two long lost relatives who once took a holiday on the Tamar will suffice for them to feel they can credibly claim “Cornish” ancestry.
On the wider point, is this not sympotmatic of the wider maliase in the British state?
The English are told they have no identity and - unless it’s a football match - aren’t allowed to proudly assert it. Conversely, devolved Celtic provinces both get much more political attention and more public money.
If you had the choice, what would you pick?
Stark D. 11
His countenance was grim almost throughout.
614. If the argument is transparently stupid then surely maximising those who see through the BBC will drastically reduce its support in the population then tim?
575 Tom, the relative significance of oil to Norway is much greater than it is to the UK.
Norway’s population is 4 million but their oil production in 2008 was 2.5 million barrels a day.
Ours is 60 million and we produce 1.6 million a day.
Even if all that production were Scottish (which it wouldn’t be), you’d be looking at 2/3rds the production for 20% more people and, more importantly, a much bigger state. Norway’s state spending as a share of GDP is 41%, Scotland’s by some estimates about 70%. So how comparable to Norway is Scotland?
#623
A lot more comparable than Iceland is.