An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddle and Macintyre
November 24th, 2009
Never forget the “Golden Polling Rule?
In the feeding frenzy that’s followed the Observer MORI poll we’ve seen so-called experts rushing in to pontificate because they thought they had a story. The election was not a foregone conclusion after all.
But there’s an inconvenient truth that you hardly hear mentioned - what PB regulars will know as “The Golden Polling Rule”.
This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in the least favourable position that has been the most accurate.
This is not just a modern phenomenon - but has going going on in Westminster, Euro and London Mayoral elections since at least the 1980s. Just look at the following which I have rehearsed here before:-
June 2009: Euro Election Four pollsters did surveys and the worst share predicted for Labour was 16%. The party got a smaller share than even that.
July 2008: Glasgow East by-election Two polls showing Labour leads of 14% and 17%. Labour lost.
May 2008: Crewe & Nantwich by election Two pollsters did surveys showing that Labour would lose - but in each case the margin predicted was smaller than the outcome.
May 2008: London Mayoral Election. Four pollsters carried out surveys and three suggested that it was neck and neck between Labour’s Ken and Boris. The fourth had Boris ahead by what turned out to be the precise margin of victory.
May 2005: general election. All the pollsters’ final polls bar one had Labour with a bigger vote lead than was actually achieved. The one exception, NOP for the Independent, got it precisely right and then got dropped by the paper.
June 2004: London Mayoral race. Two pollsters did surveys - the one with Labour in the least favourable position got it almost precisely right.
June 2004: Euro elections. Two firms did polls both of them overstating Labour’s eventual position.
June 2001: general election. Labour won with a 9.3% lead on votes. None of the pollsters had this in single figures and one campaign poll had the party 30% ahead.
May 1997: general election. Labour won with a 14% lead on votes. The best pollster was ICM who had Labour in the least favourable position although their final poll did understate Tony Blair’s party.
April 1992: general election. The closest final poll had the Tories ahead by just 0.5%. John Major’s party won with a lead on votes of just under 8%.
I have not included the by elections where there was only one poll. For with the exception of Glenrothes in each by election where there has been polling there has seen the same pattern. In this parliament a survey suggested that Labour was heading for an easy recovery of Blaenau Gwent in 2006 - it failed. A couple of years earlier the one poll ahead of the Hartlepool by election had Labour holding on with a massive 33% majority - the actual margin was 7%.
So is it going to apply this time? Who knows? But surely the default position for punters, pundits and politicians should be to assume the worst for Labour.
We’ll see what happens at the general election. Maybe the recent changes that some pollsters have introduced will cause, perhaps, the second or third least favourable Labour position to be the most accurate? Maybe they won’t?
PaddyPower has just put up a market on when we will see a Labour lead from one of the main pollsters. It’s 10/1 Before the end of 2009; 6/1 Jan-Feb 2010; 9/2 March-April 2010; 7/2 May 2010; 2/5 Not at any time before June 2010. UPDATE: The dataset from last night’s PB Angus Reid Strategies poll is now available here
Mike Smithson
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hehe, I am Plato of the day.
Yes, MacIntyre and Liddle are missing the point - MacIntyre because he appears to be a ridiculous, puffed up lefty denialist of reality and Liddle because he is just puffed up and arrogant and doesn’t want to admit he was a nonsense-merchant before the MORI poll.
2 for Liddle read Liddell
Great stuff Mike - sock it to ‘em.
Rod Liddle = Rod Crosby?
I’ve come to the conclusion that this hung parliament nonsense is just like seasonal flu. Over a period of time at least one bout is almost inevitable and all you can do is medicate the symptoms and wait for it to pass.
The MSM have just decided that they are going to do this story for a while and so are. The facts just get a walk on part.
Dyed, Mike
Apparently it is Liddle:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Liddle
PB Vs Liddle/MacIntyre…who will win?
Theres only one way to find out..
7 I thought so but was guided by the wisdom of Smithson, the founder of Tai Po, the martial art of spelling mistakes.
fpt
466. It is truly strange. To learn more about the origins of human sacrifice, I recommend a novel called The Genesis Secret, by this guy Knox. I think his first name’s Tom.
The odd thing about depraved Aztec religion is that it didn’t even offer a nice afterlife (which normally makes up for horrible self-inflicted austerities on this earth: cf Roman Catholics).
The Aztecs believed that only warriors killed on the battlefield, and women who expired in childbirth, were reborn in a goodish way: they came back as dazzling Monarch Butterflies.
For everyone else, there was a couple of years after-you-died of shifting around a freezing dark Underworld, as a sort of anguished and wailing spectre, tortured by giant lizards and flailed by a wind of knives - then came Oblivion.
Nice.
The battle of the Mystics.
re 7. Yes - it rhymes with p***le
They need something to talk about so invent news. Amazing how the fact that another poll was conducted at virtually the same time as the Mori one has been ignored.
http://cicerossongs.blogspot.com/2009/11/getting-real-about-climate-change.html
On AGW - worth a read, by Cicero occasionally of this parish
11 zing! lol
11.
11 Mike S. Is that piffle with two d’s ??
And post Lisbon those desperate to be betrayed by Cameron also want to read what they want to read into the MORI poll. My old nana always used to see her afthers name in the tea leaves what ever they looked like because she needed to. If you ad this to the MSM seasonal flu bout and then add a liberal dose of Seniorists of all party’s of the left you get the exquisite self referential south sea tuilp bulb of an out pouring.
Anthropogenic Gordon Warming ?
FPT:
re 66:
Election 2010: So what happens if nobody wins?
Next year’s general election could produce the first hung parliament for a generation. Philip Johnston untangles the consequences.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/6641382/Election-2010-So-what-happens-if-nobody-wins.html
Apologies if this has already been commented on, but that article is stuffed full of howlers:
“…the British desire for a Goldilocks government – not too strong and not too weak, but just right… The British electorate has had a knack over the decades of delivering just that”
Really? By my reckoning we’ve had a government with a rock-solid majority ever since at least 1983, apart from 1992-7 when the Government was a lame duck.
“In 1992, it was widely assumed there would be a hung parliament” [citation needed]
“Because large parts of the country are no longer winnable for the Tories, including Scotland and much of Wales [citation needed], it is perfectly possible that the Conservatives could end up as the largest party in a hung parliament but be well short of a majority.”
A non-sequitur if ever I saw one…
“[Proportional representation] would mean there would never be a majority Tory government again.”……
Eh?
“If they did not [sort out a deal in the event of a hung parliament], there would have to be another election – and the party that forced it would likely be punished at the polls.”
Hmmm.
Lidl, surely.
I can’t really imagine Labour are within 6% of the Tories either, and I noticed lurking on the last thread that Nick Palmer MP didn’t seem to think it was that close either. That said I find the Angus Reid poll equally implausible in saying Labour are on 22% in terms of support. It’s all a bit of a guess isn’t it, especially as several pollsters have altered their methadology, but a 10-11% tory lead (say 39-28% or 40-29% ish) sounds more likely to me.
11: Mike is clearly reading ‘how to win friends and influence people’ at the moment.
1/2
In each case is the D for “Dunce”?
22 twenty-second???? Appalling Plato, just appalling.
OT
Dizzy has a belter
http://dizzythinks.net/
20. But why can’t they be on 22%?
Did they not poll a paltry 16% at the Euros just six short months ago?
It does go to show how pitiful the policitical punditory profession actually is.
Some odd numbers show up…so clearly it’s meaningful, and it just written into whatever narrative those people want. If you want a hung parliment, then any evidence for that is evidence its going to happen, and anything which doesn’t fit is ignored or glossed over.
hmmm where-else has that been happening recently?
20 - but what if Labour support were being overstated by other pollsters, due to their weighting on previous vote technique?
In the last two elections held in my (Tory-held) constituency (2007 Borough and 2009 County) Labour fell to third place. True, turnout was lower than in the 2005 General, but there’s no guarantee that those “missing” Labour voters will bother to turn out.
I have a hunch that Mike’s polling is the one closest to the truth - and it follows his own Golden Rule.
How long before ther’es a sustained run of Labour in 3rd polls? And what might that do?
12
Dumbing down.
The media pick out the unusual - which means nothing - but fails to report the sea of sameness which is telling the real story.
Bread and Circuses for the X-factor generation.
“Here, have this shiny bead and I’ll just relieve you of your enquiring mind, which you don’t appear to make much use of anyway…”
‘An inconvenient truth for messrs Liddell and Macintyre’
Who are these clowns anyway? Macintyre recently ranted that, because Dan Hannan agreed with Jimmy Carter that President Obama was the subject of racism, Hannan was therefore a racist - an article the NS then deleted out of embarrassment. Riddle was forced off the Today Programme in disgrace after pouring vitriol over the Countryside Alliance in a Guardian column. What a pair of jokers!
29. That is a very, very interesting question and worthy of a thread in its self ( or we could just hijack this one ).
- It didn’t happen in the Euros so then when will it ever?
or
- are the polls really very very close and only some sort of genetic memory keeping Labour second because it surely has to be?
- Rather than waiting for Labour to fall further what could the Lib Dems do to over take.
- What would Labour do if a run of polls put them third?
The hung parliament chatter started before the Mori poll came out. Indeed it started before the ICM poll came out too. Alex Salmond really got the ball rolling and it was taking off nicely, irrespective of polling figures. Mori has simply confirmed what the assorted punditry want to believe. Meanwhile there’s no evidence that the British public have changed their minds for quite some time.
32. My ideal GE result would be something like Tory 45 Lib Dem 23 Labour 22 Oth 10. Hilarious results likely…
WTF is going on with the World Cup Bid, friggin Lord Triesman “ain’t nowt to do with me” of Labour lacky-dom.
England’s 2018 World Cup bid hit as Premier League chairman resigns from board
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/6644234/Englands-2018-World-Cup-bid-hit-as-Premier-League-chairman-resigns-from-board.html
FPT, 460, historians disagree, but one current theory is that the Aztecs were using human sacrifice as part fo a deliberate policy of terror.
Apparently, the person responsible was Tlacaelel, who spent 60 years as effectively Aztec Prime Minister between the 1420s and 1480s, over four successive reigns. It seems that, to strengthen the empire, he recast the religion - making the Aztecs the chosen people, changing the top god, and greatly increasing the number of human sacrifices required - along with other social changes, all aimed at encouraging support for aggressive war.
If true, Tlacaelel is in the same league as our modern monsters for sheer evil. Only the limitations of Aztec technology stopped him from amassing a similar death toll.
New Betting Market: Will Labour get a polling lead BEFORE the election? PaddyPower has just put up a market on when we will see a Labour lead from one of the main pollsters. It’s 10/1 Before the end of 2009; 6/1 Jan-Feb 2010; 9/2 March-April 2010; 7/2 May 2010; 2/5 Not at any time before June 2010.
A chance for Liddle and Macintyre to have a pun t???
37
The Speccy didn’t publish my suggestion that Rod wrote us a guest article.
No sense of humour
37. 2/5 looks good value, if only we could exclude MORI polls.
34. To help level the killing field you’d have Lucas elected in Brighton Pavillion and Galloway and Peoples Voice hold their seats. They could demand speaking rights at the post apocalyptic Yalta to realign the left. The scale of the fratricide would operatic, tolkenian, biblical…
32 South of a line from the Severn to the Humber, Labour will be kept alive in a few ghetto game reserves, but will otherwise be politically extinct. We are talking tiny votes over large swathes of the south of England. Whether they will be ever reintroduced is doubtful. Why would you?
Their ability to claim they are a national party will be seriously dented. Given the grief the Tories got over their lack of a presence in Scotland or Liverpool or Manchester, Labour will deserve to be ridiculed for any pretensions of “representing Britain”.
No doubt the Beeb will pronounce “tory lead doubles” assuming the next ICM poll shows the Tory lead still around 12%..
Hang on my upstairs windows are being attacked by flying porcine bandits.
The juicy thing is that assuming Labour reaches 30% in Scotland (which I am far from certain of)then in some parts of England it could be below 20%. Nick Palmer = Anna Soubry gains Broxtowe with 10,000 majority.
40
You’d need Alan Bleasdale to write it - and the Tory Establishment would have to be to blame.
37 If they do have a punt, they had better hope that Roguey McRogue from Roguesville gets busy….
How about a market that Labour don’t get another poll with the difference between them and the Tories in single figures?
[b,previous thread] - Link to a computer driven prediction from the warmist camp - compiled before, say, 2007, that indicated that a period of cooling (or even flatling) was possible.
See the plot at:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/12/2008-temperature-summaries-and-spin/
It uses data from AR4. AR4 was published in 2007, so the computer models would have been finished a couple of years before that. You can see that recent temperatures are within the range of computer model predictions.
This post:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/what-the-ipcc-models-really-say/
is also interesting.
Additionally, it turns out that CRU admit to a margin of error of +/- 1 C - yet according to them in the whole of the 20th cent GW was 0.7 C - a figure less than the MOE. In other words - rubbish.
You can have a margin of error on an individual year of +/-1 degree and still record a statistically significant trend of 0.7 degree over a whole century. Over a long period of time you would expect the sampling errors to average out [we use a similar approach on this website when looking at opinion polls..]
Totally O/T, but just received this from a friend this morning:
The Female Genie…
While trying to escape through Pakistan , Osama Bin Laden found a bottle on the sand and picked it up. Suddenly, a female genie rose from the bottle and with a smile said, “Master, may I grant you one wish?”
Osama responded,” You ignorant, unworthy daughter-of-a-dog! Don’t you know who I am? I don’t need any common woman giving me anything.”
The shocked genie said, “Please, I must grant you a wish or I will be returned to that bottle forever.”
Osama thought a moment, then grumbled about the impertinence of the woman and said, “Very well, I want to awaken with three American women in my bed in the morning. So just do it and be off with you.
” The annoyed genie said, “So be it!” and disappeared. The next morning Bin Laden woke up in bed with Lorena Bobbitt, Tonya Harding and Nancy Pelosi at his side.
His penis was gone, his knees were broken, and he had no health insurance.
God is good.
Just watching Andrew Neil taking the mick out of Sir Michael.
He is not impressed - very amusing.
It’s been Con 40-ish, Lab 28-ish, LibDem 20-ish for ages and will probably be like that for the duration, so the MSM are desperate for some story to break the monotony. Pretty soon they’ll be reporting surprise Labour wins in parish council elections.
32 - Yellow Sub:
“- It didn’t happen in the Euros so then when will it ever?”
Correct. But it has happened at several of the last few local elections which are fought under FPTP. Euro Elections are not a good analogy for a FPTP election because voters are more likely to “experiment”.
” - are the polls really very very close and only some sort of genetic memory keeping Labour second because it surely has to be?”
That is an interesting question. It depends where you put the “genetic folk memory”. Is it on the part of the pollsters (who adjust accordingly), or the voters (who respond Labour but actually when it comes to voting won’t bother) or some combination?
” - Rather than waiting for Labour to fall further what could the Lib Dems do to over take.”
Another interesting question. Unfortunately, I think its a bit of a chicken-egg situation. You need the phenomenon to occur naturally for it to become sustained - i think it will become self reinforcing and quite alarmingly bad for Labour if the tipping point is reached. If Labour start to lose credibility as the “official opposition” (which to all intents and purposes they now are), then its very shallow support could disintegrate very quickly. There’s no shortage of homes for it.
- What would Labour do if a run of polls put them third?
That, I think, would be coup-catalyst territory.
40. YS - sounds good
40 - and yet Hazel Blears would still be on the election coverage show telling us how the Tories were having a bad night because they didn’t unseat Dennis Skinner and win everything in Manchester.
48 Archroy, don’t mention parish councils. You will summon the genie of the councillor for Dunny-on-the-Wold South, Mark Senior of this parish.
“surely the default position for punters, pundits and politicians should be to assume the worst for Labour. ”
Punters yes, they play with money. The latter play with their egos so they will use the data that fits their preconceptions, or what their editors are after that week. 22% though, surely that’s meltdown territory and the stuff that J. Ashley was talking about in the ‘provate polling’ that is making the little moons around Brown so gloomy. How must the challengers who didn’t have the cojones to depose Brown be feeling? Harman? Milliband? Johnson? Answers in comments please. Just for a giggle I wrote to Harman and told her brown was an eejit and she should depose him. She replied he was the best men for the job, etc. etc. blah blah.
14 Tabman. A very good and reasoned article. Good to see someone making the difference between climate change sceptics and deniers.
51 Hazel Blears doing her Comical Ali act is one of the many things I hope to look forward to on election night.
54 - yes, I thought so to, but then he is a friend of mine!
52 - That was my aim!
45. How can we trust the science behind any of the shit you post?
That’s your BIG BIG f*cking BIIIIIIG problem, now. Climate change scientists have been emphatically revealed as duplicitous shysters and cowards, trying to avoid the Freedom of Information Act in case they have to reveal “difficult” data that might cause them problems.
How do we know any of the crap that you people adduce isn’t just the same cant and bollocks? Stuff your stupid graphs up your freezing butt.
well done andrew neill for making michael white look like the flip-flopping fool he truly is.
that poll has induced mild hysteria amongst the Left - alex smith, white, jimmy mac - not one of them has a brain cell between them.
55: We must learn the lesson…we must listen to the people…we must do better at getting our message across.
Tonight has been a dreadful night for the tories (as they pass 370 seats)…
One can write it now.
Mike S
A few more to add to your list:
1987 general election
1979 general election
1974 October general election
1970 general election
1966 general election
1959 general election ???
Norwich North byelection
50. If your senario came true - and lets forget actual numbers of MP’s for a moment - then the Lib Dems would face a very clear strategic choice which in my experience of the party never ends well. With 48 hours of the picture of cameron the steps of Number 10 the Senorists would have retaken complete control of Cowley Street becuase now the eternal foe was back in government and we’d have to go for them. That would mean tacking soggie centre. This in turn would vacate just enough collectivist ground on the left to allow Labour to reflate its core enough to survive as a national political party.
Or do you just ignore the Troies for a parliament and allow the entropy that comes with power to do its stuff while you borg like assimilated as much vacated labour territory as you could in the south in the knowledge that once cleaned out they’d probably never come back?
Its a very wide topic.
62: Quiet correct as always YS. The actual reality of a hung parliment for the Lib-Dems might just lead to disaster for them.
Be careful what your wish for.
O/T It’s my day for receiving wacko humour -
here are some mute monks singing the Hallelujah Chorus..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCFCeJTEzNU
62. I’m not sure how it ends up, but the getting there ought to be richly entertaining. There are several possible alternative worlds, most of them favourable from a Tory perspective.
[58] - What’s your problem seanT? Why can’t you handle the fact that I disagree with you?
No-one has falsified any data. CRU probably didn’t want to release their data because they wanted to make money out of it. I’d much rather see freedom of data, but then we’d need our scientists funded to do research and not told to raise money selling commercial services, as Tory and Labour governments have both encouraged them to do.
What amuses me is that those against AGW have been using the Hadley-CRU record over recent years because it is cooler than the GISS record. I believe that, because the law is different in the US, GISS have to release their source data. So your supposition is incorrect.
61
It’s what Labour would do, in defeat.
Would they move decisively leftwards and leave a swaithe of ground to be occupied by a ‘broad church’ LoC non-statist party?
62 - the latter option would be in the Lib Dems best interests; push Labour out of politics forever now that their moronic founding ideology has failed so many times.
Then we could get back to the nice way things used to be - with Tories and Liberals… and Mr. Gladstone and Mr. Disraeli
34 - not much different from 1983 then…..
61 - “Or do you just ignore the Troies for a parliament and allow the entropy that comes with power to do its stuff while you borg like assimilated as much vacated labour territory as you could in the south in the knowledge that once cleaned out they’d probably never come back?”
I had a good
at that!
MP numbers do rather throw a curve-ball into the debate, though. Imagine a scenario like 1983, but where the percentages are reversed. Suddenly, and starkly, FPTP’s iniquities are thrown into sharp relief.
I’m not sure I agree with your conclusion. I’d have thoguht that those on the left of the party would welcome the opportunity to strip out social democrats from Labour.
MIKE _ ANY CHANCE OF A THREAD ON THIS?
49. Those are very good points.
(a) you are right to flag up local election results as iron proof that the Lib Dems could push Labour into third in an election simply because it already does in one set. However i don’t need to tell you of the daddy/mummy divide in voter perceptions of elections and for now at least the Local council results are a product of the premium the party gets locally where it will vote on mummy issues which the localist, ALDC type stuff delivers on. I think to come second nationally the Lib Dems would need to inject ” Daddy” DNA into the party in order for the public to trust us with national office which is what opposition status would be. I don’t think we have done it in this parliament.
2. I think you are right about the genetic folk memory thing. However the reason I hinted at the phrase is that these memories are very powerful and can reassert themselves after profound system shocks. Look at the way the old old stories keep comming back.
3. With regard to catalysts i think this is where Afghanistan is touted although i’m personally skeptical that it would work so close to an election now. And we have had no labour MP defections - yet - though we only have 5 months to go.
67 should be for 62 (YS)
T(LZ) and ST
That is quite a clever RC chart. Note the start point, 1999, is the year after the el-nino spike. Note also they plot anomalies, rather than predicted temps. Note also they haven’t plotted the UAH data.
Obsfucation is the name of the game. Here’s the original hockey stick graph they were predicting, until reality intervened:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ed/Hockey_stick_chart_ipcc_large.jpg
No post on the Scottish YouGov/Telegraph poll Mike?
It’s not because the poor old Lib Dems are on just 12% (-11 points on 2005) is it?
Mike’s Golden Polling Rule No.23 and a half -> never report a poll that shows the Lib Dem vote halved.
Shall I go join RodCrosby in the ‘Sin Bin’ now?
67 - I’m not sure there are too many old leftist activists in the Labour Party. Haven’t many of them gone to the Greens?
71: How many Lab/Lib marginals are there where a defection would mean keeping someones seat? Not many i would think.
A lot of herd equal and opposite reaction to the Lidl/Macintyre dunderheadery.
I’ll bet Mike £30 that Angus Reid underestimate the Labour vote in their last poll before the election
41. Indeed. In fact, Labour may be *permenantly* wiped out in Southern England in the same way the Tories were in Scotland in 1997, save a couple of seats.
Trouble is: Southern England has lots more critical parliamentary seats than Scotland.
Which means Labour may have to form a permenant alliance, or merger, with the Liberal Democrats to ever govern Britain again.
Or move significantly to the Right and change their name.
74 - For once I agree with you.
The rapid decline in the Scottish Lib Dems and the SNP is significant in the Scottish polls.
71 - again, all good point:
(a) - I think you’re right on this. However, in Cable and Laws we have two of the most credible politicians in this parliament. Both good performers and both respected. I think these are the gametes by which “Daddy” DNA might be transmitted.
2. - the folk memory is largely based on two things: (i) Labour being the party of the working mand and (ii) Labour being able to deliver. Third place demolishes the second point; New Labour / Mandelson / Expenses has to a large extent done for the first. If we’re all Middle Class now, why not vote for a Middle Class party?
3. - defections. An interesting one. Frank Field?
77 Only £30? If you’re so certain why not a decent wager? It shouldn’t be a problem for a man of your means. Sell some wheat.
78: The labour party would have to fundamentally change to get anywhere in southern england in the future. Again a ‘merger’ with the liberal is the only real way, but then many voters which currently vote liberal would rather go tory than go labour unless it was a fundamentally different party.
79.
Err… timbot… the Scottish Lib Dems are on 12% (-11 points), but the SNP are on 24% (+6 points). So, only one Scottish party is in “rapid decline”, and it ain’t the SNP.
66. rofl. AGW might be happening, it might not, but the CRU have been shown to be run by cheats and liars. Their data is utterly worthless, those involved are charlatans, their methods should result in them being ostracised, their funding removed, and fired from their jobs.
You defend, excuse their behaviour, and cover for them in the same way that catholics covered the behaviour of many of their preists in regards to abusing young boys. You close your eyes, put your fingers in your ears and say lalalala very loudly, in the belief that the general intentions are good in themselves, even if a few individuals are suspect.
75
They’re in there, somewhere.
Boring away like a Teredo.
But Mandy’s the sailor to give the Good Ship NuLabour a hearty breaming.
Next port, Davy Jones locker…
76 - no. Perhaps only 2 or 3. But defections Lab - Con start the rot.
76 - True, but there are a huge number of retirements lined up (some for dubious reasons but mostly age and fatigue) and there is certainly scope for defections amongst these as a final flourish.
86: Would Cameron want them? Only if their majority was big enough so the result was still in the balance i would think.
78, 82 - there’s only room for one authoritarian party. I can see small-l liberals making common cause with the Lib Dems; authoritarians the Tories, and Socialists joining King Arthur.
74 - Why don’t you offer to write an article on the Scottish polls, either here or on pb2? I’d be interested in your more cconsidered thoughts from an SNP perspective.
66 Timothy (likes zebras)
All your graphs and technical stuff makes our brains hurt. Really, we all know that you can’t beat anecdotal evidence and village pump gossip for a real understanding of a global issue with thousands of parameters.
83 - That depends on the baseline though doesn’t it? Compared with 2005, it’s good for the SNP. But they are the governing party in Scotland are they not?
66. I don’t mind people disagreeing with me. I dislike wasting time arguing with idiots. Such as you.
You claim “CRU probably didn’t want to release their data because they wanted to make money out of it.”
Here’s the actual email:
“At 09:41 AM 2/2/2005, Phil Jones wrote:
Mike,
I presume congratulations are in order - so congrats etc !
Just sent loads of station data to Scott. Make sure he documents everything better this time! And don’t leave stuff lying around on ftp sites - you never know who is trawling them. The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone.”
Here’s what the Wall Street Journal (surely correctly) construes as the meaning:
“So apparently wrote Phil Jones, director of the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) and one of the world’s leading climate scientists, in a 2005 email to “Mike.” Judging by the email thread, this refers to Michael Mann, director of the Pennsylvania State University’s Earth System Science Center. We found this nugget among the more than 3,000 emails and documents released last week after CRU’s servers were hacked and messages among some of the world’s most influential climatologists were published on the Internet.
“The “two MMs” are almost certainly Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, two Canadians who have devoted years to seeking the raw data and codes used in climate graphs and models, then fact-checking the published conclusions.”
Proof that the WSJ is right:
“False Claims by McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the Mann et al. (1998) reconstruction
Filed under: Paleoclimate — mike @ 4 December 2004
A number of spurious criticisms regarding the Mann et al (1998) proxy-based temperature reconstruction have been made by two individuals McIntyre and McKitrick ( McIntyre works in the mining industry, while McKitrick is an economist). These criticisms are contained in two manuscripts (McIntyre and McKitrick 2003 and 2004–the latter manuscript was rejected by Nature; both are collectively henceforth referred to as “MM”)”
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regarding-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/
What a load of twaddle. “They wanted to make money out of the data”. FFS, grow up. They were trying to hide the data from skeptics.
Anthony Wells (UK Polling Report) on today’s new Scottish poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2357
83 - A MoS Poll in May (Westminster voting intention) on the SNP website showed
http://www.snp.org/node/15321
Tory…..11%
Labour…27%
LibDems..11%
SNP……43%
Others….8%
SNP going from 43% in May to 24% 6 months later is a rapid decline in anyones book
O/T Ructions in Wales over decision by Peter Hain, Rhodri Morgan and Garry Owen (WLP Chair) to put off action on a Referendum until after the General Election. Plaid talking of walking out of coaltion and not all Labour AMs seem to agree with ther leaders.
Could we have a Rainbow Coaltion yet?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/8376640.stm
88 - In a heartbeat. No question. The nationwide publicity boost of that sort of thing is much more valuable than one disgruntled A-lister with the carpet pulled from under him is painful (and in any event there are still some seats to select, peerage opportunities etc).
92. Sir Norfolk Passmore
Fairy nuff. But even if we change the “baseline” to 2007 (the SNP’s electoral high-point thus far) then today’s poll is wonderful!
When was the last time a Westminster governing party was so popular mid-term?
AFAIAA the answer to that question is: an awful long time ago.
80. All fair points. I’m certainly glad you mentioned Laws and have never quite understood what he has done to deserve the mark of Cain that seems to haunt his career. Its probably too late for a major reshufle but surely worthy of one of the big portfolios.
Hoever to focus on two fo the bigger issues
- genetic memory. The issue is that we are going to have a very large and rapidly getting smaller public sector which is going to feel angry, stigmatised and deeply resistant to change. I see Labour as culturally being much more willing and able to tell them what they want to hear that the Lib Dems. And that may stimulate a short term poll boost. Isn’t the genetic folk memory Labour equals big stick/castle equals proetction?
And the Lib Dem folk memory is Liberal equals threat equals think/wonder/engage equals wander free and experience?
there are just far to many people who want the draw bridge up on the left for the labour party to ever die.
- Defections. Isn’t our other problem is that fundamentally labour is a movement and that liberalism is a diaspora?
Has anyone noticed that the same people pushing the Immigrationgate conspiracy shocker on here are the same people pusjing the Climategate Conspiracy shocker.
Plato & SeanT in particular.
I suppose we should expect it.
Psychologists believe that the search for meaning is common in conspiracism and the development of conspiracy theories, and may be powerful enough alone to lead to the first formulating of the idea. Once cognized, confirmation bias and avoidance of cognitive dissonance may reinforce the belief. In a context where a conspiracy theory has become popular within a social group, communal reinforcement may equally play a part. Some research carried out at the University of Kent, UK suggests people may be influenced by conspiracy theories without being aware that their attitudes have changed. After reading popular conspiracy theories about the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, participants in this study correctly estimated how much their peers’ attitudes had changed, but significantly underestimated how much their own attitudes had changed to become more in favour of the conspiracy theories. The authors conclude that conspiracy theories may therefore have a ‘hidden power’ to influence people’s beliefs.
97: I would suppose you don;t turn those offers down
95. Independence is off the menu for a generation, not that it was ever going to happen.
I’m not quite sure what killed it. The recession? The SNP’s honeymoon coming to an end?
My hunch is that Ireland’s and Iceland’s collapse did most of the damage. And the way the EU bullied little Ireland didn’t help.
The Scottish Lib Dems are now paying the very heavy price for being duped into backing Wendy Alexander’s cunning Calman Commission.
When oh when will the Laberals ever learn? -> you cannot cling to Uncle Labour’s coat-tails your entire life. Time for your balls to drop boys. Manhood bekons.
66. What a lame post. Head firmly in the sand.
98 - See post 95, the SNP polling has collapsed in the last 6 months
66 and 91:
Oh, and you also need to face the fact that if some of the thousands of scientists studying the climate issue turn out to be venal, incompetent or downright twisted, then the entire case is disproved.
82. ” many voters which currently vote liberal would rather go tory than go labour unless it was a fundamentally different party.”
I expect a fundamentally different party is what we’ll get.
The Labour Party was founded in Victorian times as the political wing of the trade union movement. A movement designed to act as the parliamentary voice of the previously disenfranchised masses of the poor industrialised working classes.
It is as out of date now as coal scuttles, flat caps and domestic servants.
It is my view that Blair was an aberration. A populist who won in spite of his party, not because of it. He was tolerable to Middle England because he successfully wore the moderate cloak of social democracy and was never seen as a Labour man.
Remember: apart from the Blair landslides of 1997 and 2001 Labour have failed to poll 40% in the UK in every single general election since 1970.
66. rofl. AGW might be happening, it might not, but the CRU have been shown to be run by cheats and liars. Their data is utterly worthless, those involved are charlatans, their methods should result in them being ostracised, their funding removed, and fired from their jobs.
You defend, excuse their behaviour, and cover for them in the same way that catholics covered the behaviour of many of their preists in regards to abusing young boys. You close your eyes, put your fingers in your ears and say lalalala very loudly, in the belief that the general intentions are good in themselves, even if a few individuals are suspect.
by notme November 24th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Well said notme and well done to Monbiot for acknowledging the same. Of course these leaks do not disprove anything but the behaviour of those so called scientists involved is unacceptable. They are not, by their behaviour, scientists - they are political activists.
102 - Indeed. Stuart has been strangely silent on that part of the YouGov poll that shows support for independence now at a very low level indeed.
100. Er, there are emails and articles in both cases supporting the notion that there really is a “conspiracy” - not that I have used this word.
But maybe I am being too suspicious?
At least I can console myself this way: I didn’t believe the mayor of Baltimore has issued an angry press release against Chris Grayling, saying that if we compare Baltimore to TV series The Wire, we must compare Britain to the… Midsomer Murders.
I mean, what kind of credulous low-watt dimwit would fall for that achingly obvious hoax?
Ah yes - tim.
95. tim
Scottish Opinion/Progressive Partnership are not a member of the British Polling Council.
But thank you for providing yet more evidence (of which we have an abundance) that you have access to Labour’s Rebuttal/Attack Database.
Too clever by half.
99 - Laws. Two words: Orange Book
Plus, his most obvious front bench position is currently filled by someone who won’t be leaving it in a hurry
Genetic Memory: You’re right. The challenge, I think, is this. Are public sector workers worried because they believe intrinsically in the pubic sector, or are they worried about job security? The latter point has to be addressed by saying that its Labour that has brought about their problem, firstly by making such a hash of the economy and sceoncly by failing utterly to inrtoduce voting reform thereby guaranteeing a Conservative minority (by votes cast) government.
The former is more difficult - but Liberals don’t per se believe in getting rid of the state sector, just in running it diifferently.
Defections: great definition! But that’s also Labour’s weakness. The Labour movement was brought into being to look after the interests of a group that has largely disappeared - heavy manual labour. It has “diversified” into the middle class public sector (see above) and the underclass. Blair stopped the rot in the short term, but where’s the glue?
Reposted incase spamtrapped!
99 - Laws. Two words: Orange Book
Plus, his most obvious front bench position is currently filled by someone who won’t be leaving it in a hurry
Genetic Memory: You’re right. The challenge, I think, is this. Are public sector workers worried because they believe intrinsically in the public sector, or are they worried about job security? The latter point has to be addressed by saying that its Labour that has brought about their problem, firstly by making such a hash of the economy and sceoncly by failing utterly to inrtoduce voting reform thereby guaranteeing a Conservative minority (by votes cast) government.
The former is more difficult - but Liberals don’t per se believe in getting rid of the state sector, just in running it diifferently.
Defections: great definition! But that’s also Labour’s weakness. The Labour movement was brought into being to look after the interests of a group that has largely disappeared - heavy manual labour. It has “diversified” into the middle class public sector (see above) and the underclass. Blair stopped the rot in the short term, but where’s the glue?
107 - I’ve just made largely the same point.
#93 I particularly liked the following from Mann discussing how to use Real Climate site to
censorscreen and delay postings:From: “Michael E. Mann”
To: Tim Osborn , Keith Briffa
Subject: update
Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 16:51:53 -0500
Reply-to: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Cc: Gavin Schmidt
guys, I see that Science has already gone online w/ the new issue, so we put up the RC post. By now, you’ve probably read that nasty McIntyre thing. Apparently, he violated the embargo on his website (I don’t go there personally, but so I’m informed).
Anyway, I wanted you guys to know that you’re free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through, and we’ll be very careful to answer any questions that come up to any extent we can. On the other hand, you might want to visit the thread and post replies yourself. We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you’d like us to include.
You’re also welcome to do a followup guest post, etc. think of RC as a resource that is at your disposal to combat any disinformation put forward by the McIntyres of the world. Just let us know. We’ll use our best discretion to make sure the skeptics dont’get to use the RC comments as a megaphone…
mike
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - Never forget the golden rule!
114. Good for you. I still beat you by 6 minutes
107 Yes, Labour became unelectable as a socialist party in the 1980s. The political landscape tilted enough to the right to make them unelectable UK wide, and socialism (particularly after the USSR collapsed) was acknowledged as a failure.
What should have happened at that point was a knock down drag out fight for the soul of the Labour party - what was its purpose, philosophy and future? Indeed, did it have a future in its present makeup?
In the knick of time Tony Blair arrived on the scene, understood the problem and by triangulating an unwieldy construct ‘New Labour’ was born, mainly out of cutting loose all of Labour’s core dogma, values and beliefs. Thanks to Blair the party became electable again, but at the cost of losing touch with its original principles.
So instead of saving the Labour Party, Blair delayed the necessary internecine struggle for the future direction of the party.
It remains to be seen just how much damage will be done to the future prospects of Labour by that delay.
108. Too right. I actually still believe, pace timothy zebras, that there is a case to be made for AGW.
To take a small example. It seems incontrovertible to me that the UK’s winters have become milder over the decades. So some warming is happening in one part of the world, that’s for sure. The idea that seven billion busy humans are causing some or all of the warming seems, prima facie, to this layman, quite reasonable.
But that’s a long way from saying it’s proved, and there is plenty of evidence to say it might not be humans doing it. Did the dinosaurs drive Hummers? etc etc
In other words: the jury is out, and we need to wait for better evidence before spending trillions.
But the warmists can’t accept this. They HAVE to be right, and they HAVE to be proved right IMMEDIATELY, and they will NOT accept criticism or counter-argument, and their zealotry is now damaging their entire cause.
Just as some of us predicted would happen some time ago.
107 Labour wil lsurvive to take office again even if heavily defeated next year. The same dire predictions about the demise of the tory party were given after 1997 and even after 2001 but look at them now!!
PS the era of domestic servants is not over by any means with the eastern european immigration of recent years and coal could make a comeback when the lights are in danger of going off!!
115 - is that this Gavin Schmidt? If so, I was at school with him!
107 flat caps could be next years big thing as well -stranger things have happened
114. Flippancy aside Tabman I think Labours only “old skool” support remains in Scotland, some northern bastions and a couple of Welsh valleys.
Other than that it is mainly being kept afloat by the public sector and their unions.
I’m not sure much of the underclass actually vote so I don’t know how much stock we can place on that element.
114 - I got waylayed in the middle
Not often we agree though!
120. But the Tories haven’t come back in Scotland and there’s nothing to say Labour *will* come back in the South.
Labour might stabilise at 200 seats - and gain 50/60 midland/northern marginals - but how will they ever get to 330 seats again without fundamental change?
And bear in mind how different Britain may look in 10 years of a Tory government.
124. I actually find myself agreeing with you more often than you give me credit for Tabman.
98 - That puts the SNP down 7-9% (depending on constituency or list poll) on 2007, Stuart.
And in answer to your question, Labour wasn’t dropping that sort of share mid-term in 1999 or even quite in 2003 (although they dipped a bit further in 2004 as the Iraq War worsened). The Tories were doing worse in 1994 (although they didn’t recover as it transpires) and were doing about the same in 1989 (although propped up by SDP/Liberal merger implosion at that time). So it isn’t a great mid-term position - see various past threads on this at a national level.
SeanT - “My hunch is that Ireland’s and Iceland’s collapse did most of the damage. And the way the EU bullied little Ireland didn’t help.”
If the people of Scotland actually shared your idiosyncratic fixations, any significant drop in support for independence would have happened at the time of the financial crisis. As we discussed at length last year, there was no such collapse. As for the trademark ‘wind up the Nits’ line about independence being ‘dead for a generation’…well, everyone has their own definition of how long a generation is. If the Tories are on their way back to power, you might well find the definition is approximately six months in this case.
It’s also worth pointing out, of course, that the wording and sequencing of the questions on independence are leading (to suit the Telegraph’s unionist agenda) and therefore those results are completely compromised - especially the one concerning the desirability of a referendum.
On voting intentions, clearly a disappointing poll for the SNP, although on the Holyrood vote not really much worse than the last YouGov poll, as it’s still a virtual dead heat. Absolutely catastrophic for the Scottish Tories, though - I knew things were bad for them, but 18% and 15% for a party that’s supposedly on the brink of power…?
113. “sceoncly by failing utterly to inrtoduce voting reform thereby guaranteeing a Conservative minority (by votes cast) government.”
Every government since the War has been elected on a minority of votes cast.
I’m not sure that makes any of them “illegitimate”. On a forced choice most would have won an absolute majority and I expect the Tories would be no different under PR.
Sooner or later a centre-right coalition would emerge. Doesn’t mean I like PR though
I just read the Liddle article…
In a field there are 10 cows and a sheep. We would say “what’s that sheep doing there?”.
Rod Liddle shags it.
CMA - this is just an analogy.
109. John O - “Stuart has been strangely silent on that part of the YouGov poll that shows support for independence now at a very low level indeed.”
Err… there is a very, very good reason for that: we do not know (yet) what question YouGov asked. The way you ask the question produces widely differing results.
Plus, of course, the supplementary question is asked of ALL respondents, not just the voters. Obviously, only voters are going to vote, so what non-voters think does not really matter. Harsh, but true.
If Unionists are so confident of winning a ‘No’ vote, then why do they so vociferously oppose the Referendum Bill, which starts its passage through parliament in January? Not feart are they?
14
Unfortunately Cicero maks some basic errors of fact in his posting on AGW.
His comparison with Venus is just plain daft - for a number iof reasons. Firstly Venus is a hell of a lot closer to the sun and so the CO2 effects are infinitisimal compared to the other forcing factors. Secondly we actually know almost nothing about the hostroy of Venus and so can say very little or nothing about how it got the atmosphere it has now.
Finally Cicero seems to be under the impression (and I apologise in I am wrong here) that the CO2 levels we have now are higher than they have been ijn the past. This is by no means true and there are many many times in the past when CO2 levels have been much much higher than they are now - including periods when the temperature was much lower.
In short Cicero’s posting is the very worst example of uninformed scare mongering - the very thing that has blighted the whole debate on AGW and Climate Change.
113. I know Laws has the words “Orange Book” branded on his forehead however when was the last time such a dull, short collection of essays came to symbolise so much angry ID for so so many people in a party? I agree that the best portfolios for him are taken but perhaps needs must and pre election the Foriegn affairs brief might get him a bit more air time. Again its to late but Danny Alexander clealry isn’t capable of “running” Clegg which means no one is “running” Clegg and Clegg needs ” running”. So I’d make Laws chief of staff but of course its Clegg that appoints Chiefs of Staff which is why he won’t get it. I suspect we’ll disagree about this point.
127. Sir Norfolk Passmore - “That puts the SNP down 7-9% (depending on constituency or list poll) on 2007, Stuart.”
Err… no it doesn’t. You are making the elementary schoolboy error of comparing a Holyrood election result with a Westminster voting intention poll. Apples and oranges.
Doh!
http://www.legaljuice.com/oops%20doh.jpg
Damian Green seems to have uncovered a huge discrepancy in Select Committee evidence on his arrest
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:20d6071c-43bd-4391-af76-9455f4092918
131 - On your all respondents point, this isn’t correct. If you look at the tables, the 57%/29% result against independence does record non-voters (4%) and undecided voters (11%) separately.
134. Thanks for that, Stuart, I was sratching my head trying to work out where on earth Sir Norfolk got the 7-9% figure from! The real drop in SNP support from 2007 is just 1% on the constituency vote and 2% on the list vote. In Westminster voting intention, they are up 6% on the last GE.
113. The ” Glue ” is (a) ethnics which the Lib Dems seem almost completely unable to break at leats in terms of the terrible patriarchal voting blocks. (b) those that rely, indeed no noother than state trasfers. And that catergory stretches from the benefit claimant to the Council Chief Executive. (c) the “Movement”. Why 12 years into *this* labour government hasn’t a shard of the cooperative movement dropped off and come to the Lib Dems?
120. Parties do sometimes sink and fall off the competition for government - the Federal Progressive Conservatives in Canada, the Christian Democrats in Italy and the Liberal Party in the UK, for instance - but it is a very rare occurrence. It also tends to need a new party emerging and stealing away a core section of the votes of those parties. I agree we’re not in that position yet as regards Labour - but just say for one minute the following happens:
1) Crushing defeat in the polls in 2010
2) A leadership election that leads to a hardcore Blairite or a loony lefty taking charge.
.. without the attraction of power the party could easily split in two - or suffer mass defections to the Lib Dems. We could get a third way Blairite party and a lefty Old Labour Party, neither of which has the power to challenge for national office and leads the Lib Dems to capitalise and surge to second party status.
… Now I know it sounds ludicrous, but stranger things have happened in politics. I’m not saying it’s likely, but it’s possible.. Look at the left in Germany at the moment - painfully split between the hardcore socialist and borderline communist Die Linke and the social democratic SPD. Until those two sides can reconcile with each other, the left is going to have a tremendous struggle to form an purely left-leaning government at federal level for the foreseeable future.
100
http://www.devilskitchen.me.uk/2009/11/data-horribilis-harryreadmetxt-file.html
and if you don’t like that one - how about this one
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704779704574553652849094482.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
Google has lots of others to choose from ” Results 1 - 20 of about 155,000 for climategate. (0.19 seconds)”
I’m sure you can find a few that agree with your view
134 - Fair point. But it is a bit misleading for you to compare it with a mid-term Westminster government as your main opposition is somewhat hamstrung by being in power nationally.
Look, I’ve no strong views on who is in power at Holyrood. All I’m saying is that I’d be rather disappointed if I was an SNP supporter not to have built on 2007. I’ll happily offer you a tenner at evens that the SNP share will fall in 2011 compared with 2007 - just think it looks somewhat likely.
139. What I can’t understand about the German situation is why the SPD seemingly have no qualms about going into full-blown coalitions with Die Linke at regional level, and yet regard them as utterly untouchable at federal level, thus massively decreasing the SPD’s own chances of holding power.
126 - my apologies, i shall look out for it!
138. YS - to many Labour voters the Lib Dems come across as a white middle class handwringers party. They don’t appeal for much the same reasons that the old Liberal party ceased to appeal to working class voters 100 years ago.
Of course Labour too is full of white middle class handwringers, but it has significant figures who aren’t and it has the back story. This is a big block to the Lib Dems sweeping up large numbers of Labour votes.
139. Boundary changes to reduce the number of MPs could drastically impact upon Labour.
A 10% reduction is ~65 MPs? And if Wales was also reviewed to bring its constituency sizes in line again?
I could see 75% of those lost MPs being Labour. Which means they’d also go f**king apesh1t in the HoC and - if they could - try and block it in the Lords.
If it went through they could be facing 2015 with a nominal 150 MPs not 200 MPs.
144 - All main UK parties consist mainly of white, middle class handwringers. There is a lot to be said for them - they aren’t bad people.
132. Worth pointing out the Venus has an atmosphere that is 97% CO2, has sulphuric acid clouds (great for trapping infra red radiation) and has a surface atmospheric pressure some 90x that of Earth.
Anything that happens there ain’t comparable - though (I believe) Michael Mann - an astronomer by qualification - spent his early days at NASA study Venus’ atmosphere. Maybe that’s where he got the idea.
Timothy loves stripey things - why do you think I specified pre-2007? Because it’s easy to ‘modify’ graphs after the event. Now if you can produce evidence that info for AR4 did allow for cooling, I’ll happily retract.
The MOE - who said anything about +/- 1 C being in just one year? It appears to be a standard measure for their global data.
Most of the Labour supporters I know support Labour as the best way of keeping out the Tories. If the Lib Dems overtook them, they’d be able to paint themselves as being the best way to keep the Tories out, and a large remaining chunk of Labour support would immediately come away.
Dream scenario for the Lib Dems long term strategy must be a big Tory victory with the Lib Dems coming second in terms of votes (second in terms of seats seems unrealistic as yet) followed by Labour electing someone who would alienate a good chunk of the party’s remaining supporters and who clearly couldn’t beat the Tories (e.g. Harriet Harman).
111 - Scottish Opinion/Progressive Partnership are not a member of the British Polling Council.
Their polling is featured heavily on the SNP website, as I linked to.
However, lets just accept that the SNP is in rapid decline since it peaked in the Summer.
I’m off shortly so will echo Tabmans request to have a proper thread on post election Lib/Lab relations. To very briefly skim a few other issues.
- relative size. I understand the Lib Dems have recovered to over 60k members but Labour are on about 160k.
- The Union life support system.
- the cruel irony of runnymeads astute senario. Thats Lib Dem 23% Labour 22% would leave the Lib Dems with the moral high bround of popular vote and Labour with 2 to 3 times as many MP’s !
Isn’t that superiority of incumbancy the ultimate life boat.
Then we’d have to go onto my trade mark ” 4000 effect” and the growth of others. and finally the current glass ceiling for the Lib Dems. Its appalling record of defending council control. Over all growth in the councillor base has stalled and it isn’t because the fresh gains aren’t there. they are in every election. Its the counter balancing collapses when council control often first time control goes badly wrong.
130 many a labour council would say ‘lets ban the festival of cows this year so as not to offend the sheep and celebrate the festival of the sheep instead’
wibbler - that Sky Green story is ouch.
66
Timothy, try reading the emails. At least one contains an admission that the scientists at CRU adjusted the data after 1960 to hide a decline in temperature.
So yes, they are being accused of falsifying data. Secondly they cannot hide behind IPR since they have been receiving large swathes of public money to continue their researches. More importantly they are directly at odds with the publishing rules of a number of scientific journals which insist on all raw data being made available on request as a prerequisite for publication.
Finally they openly talk of destroying data to avoid FOI requests and indeed a substantial quantity of raw data was deleted ‘to save storage space’.
Their actions are indefensible and certainly not science.
149. Actually, Tim, let’s start by accepting that comparing this poll to the most favourable one for the SNP you could find, regardless of which company conducted it, is totally (and deliberately) misleading. A comparison with earlier YouGov polls on Westminster voting intention would be perfectly fair.
It’s likely Labour are going to have a huge seat cull post GE as well:
1) We must be getting to the stage where soon the Boundary Commission for Wales are going to have to abolish its over-representation in Westminster. Scotland faced a cull and with there being an upcoming referendum on giving the Welsh Assembly full law-making powers it can’t be long before the issue really raises its head. Probably in time for the GE-after-next. In which case Labour can kiss bye bye to those cluster of little constituencies in the valleys of South Wales that give the party a nice little seat boost in the Commons.
2) If Cameron really does reduce the number of MPs, it’s going to disproportionately hit Labour harder as it’s been established on average Labour constituencies are smaller in terms of population than Tory ones. As any reform will mean bigger constituencies it will go some way to harmonising this inequality.
.. in other words, it’s going to be a much greater struggle for Labour to return to government.
144. Oh absolutely! liberals forget how atrractive so many people find authoritarianism. and how culturally conservative many of the urban poor and WWC can be. And they look down on that.
An anecdote I often tell is to Metrosexual/Urban Intelligence high powered organisers in the Sedgefield By Election ripping apart labour leaflets with Liz Dawn on and the emmerdale TV Vicar who lived locally. The condecenstion about soap opera and the failure to understand the ” at least the buggers will look at the leaflet for 5 secs” effect of using soap characters was astonishing. they were cocky sods when I argued with them as well.
There is a lot of cultural space left for a collectivist and traditionalist party of the left in Britain still.
156 - Most political types look down on most members of the public. It’s one of the major problems with politics at present. And then the political types wonder why so many members of the public vote for parties of which they disapprove.
139. I think it’s to do with a) personality clashes, and b) the SPD don’t want to be seen as a party of West Germany with Die Linke as a party of East Germany. They worry if they make formal overtures to them at federal level they will lose a lot of ground in the old DDR, or become virtually extinct there. They also worry going into coalition with ‘Communists’ may alienate their core base in places like Nordrhein-Westfalen.
I think they’ll eventually have to get into bed together but it ain’t gunna happen yet.
145. You said it better than me!
153 ‘Their actions are indefensible and certainly not science.’
Richard, in view of the amount of public money that has been poured into this supposed ‘research’, is there an authority or body that has the right to sequester all the data and effectively take control of the CRU whilst this is being investigated? If some kind of fraud has been committed, could this become a matter for the police?
139 - For Labour to cease to be the major opposition party it would require the Lib Dems to move from being a centrist party to a clearly left-wing liberal party, something akin to the Canadian Liberals with the Tories taking the role of the Canadian Conservative Party and Labour the role of the NDP. Nick Clegg is too right-wing to lead such a party, it would need someone like Hughes or Cable or possibly Huhne and for Labour to elect someone firmly of the left like Cruddas or McDonnell or repellant to many voters like Balls.
155 - Whenever people discuss the impact of boundary changes, they focus on previous elections which is understandable but wrong.
I’m reminded of Angela Rumbold in the 1990s, who was credited with doing a great job on the boundaries for the Tories by shifting safe Tory areas into marginal seats to bolster them. But in fact, she’d unwittingly jeopardised the supposed “safe” seats whilst making no difference to the marginals which were, as it happens, beyond help.
Wales has only 40 seats anyway so is not a big deal even if you reduce their seats. As to the wider UK, you might squeeze a handful of seats out of Labour but be aware of the Rumbold rule of unintended consequences.
62/99 YS if only we could tempt you into the blue team. Your excellent analysis as ever show that you would be an asset to we Tories as you are wasted on the yellow peril.
138. “ethnics which the Lib Dems seem almost completely unable to break at leats in terms of the terrible patriarchal voting blocks”
The patriarchial voting blocks are absolutely terrible but did the Lib Dems not break it in some areas in 2005 over Iraq War protests?
The Afro-Carribean vote is the most dependably Labour but I expect affluence is the key to breaking most of this down.
154 - I searched the SNP website for what they regarded as their highest poll rating for Westminster elections.
http://www.snp.org/node/15321
If you’re not happy with them using it then approach them.
How much does Yougov show Westminster intention SNP voting in decline since it peaked in the summer?
They’ve lost about a quarter of their vote haven’t they?
143. No problem. I’m big fans of both your good self and yellowstone!
Why does Obama feel compelled to bow to everybody except Gordon Brown?
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao:
http://d.yimg.com/a/p/rids/20091118/i/r3100408959.jpg?x=400&y=280&q=85&sig=D34F4tkrlJgAMShzwJxVNA–
King Abdullah:
http://fosterfriess.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/obamabow1.jpg
Emperor Akihito:
http://image3.examiner.com/images/blog/EXID19823/images/obama_bows_japan.jpg
This is a very bizarre and embarrassing personality tic, and I hope he works on ridding himself of it ASAP.
161. I don’t think the Tories need to worry unintended consequences in Scotland. Not many seats to lose there…
Do any of the punters on here have a view on the Paddy Power market in the header?
138 - there was a thread on LDV about the Co-operative movement and Labour a couple of weeks ago. Tjhe problem with the Co-op party is that there is not even much pretence at independence from the formal Labour Party power structures; basically they’ve got a stranglehold where it matters.
Osborne goes for the “Wiggin Defence”
George Osborne’s mortgage overclaim ‘a mistake’
George Osborne’s office has said an expenses claim made by the shadow chancellor which exceeded the monthly limit was a “submission in error”.
The Mirror said he tried to claim £1,400 to cover the mortgage interest on his second home for October.
But a new cap on mortgage claims of £1,250 was introduced in May and his claim was reduced accordingly.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8376925.stm
Osborne wants to be Chancellor.
Wiggin doesn’t.
(Well he might if he knew what it was}
168 - The only bet I would really consider is the 2/5 no lead, though the 9/2 March or April makes a limited appeal given the vast numbers of polls that will be published then. May is a dreadful bet at 9/2.
Brown’s departure is a possible complicating factor to the 2/5 punt.
Oh dear
http://twitter.com/BBCLauraK/status/6013242277
I think Vince Cable asked an emergency question on this too.
164. “If you’re not happy with them using it then approach them.”
It’s your analysis I’m unhappy with, therefore I approached you, Tim. Scottish Opinion are a totally unreliable pollster - in 2007, for instance, their findings were all over the place. A 12% SNP lead one week, then a 3% Labour lead the next week, and a 6% SNP lead the week after that. Any findings from them have to be taken with a huge barrel of salt - and that’s leaving aside the fact that you simply can’t make meaningful direct comparisons between polls conducted by two different firms, even if both those firms were equally reputable.
171 correction : May is a dreadful bet at
9/27/2. Though it would still be dreadful even if they were offering 9/2 (or 9/1 for that matter).167 - But Scotland isn’t overrepresented nowadays (certainly not radically) compared with the rest of the UK.
161. But there’s a difference between re-evaluating boundaries but keeping the overall number of seats vaguely consistent and reducing the number of seats so that constituencies are, in effect, larger.
I think the thing about this site, which is a bit like industry and business, is that it works in a quantifiable way which journalism doesn’t. The media mostly is about pontificating. This site works chiefly on evidence and figures and people make judgements about betting with their own hard earned cash. It really focuses minds.
159
“in view of the amount of public money that has been poured into this supposed ‘research’, is there an authority or body that has the right to sequester all the data and effectively take control of the CRU whilst this is being investigated?”
Not that I am aware of Ed. I suppose the audit commission might have something to say but I doubt they would get involved. I assume it would take a complaint to the police to get them involved in anything beyond investigating the supposed hack. However I do know that there are a couple of individuals who are looking at launching private law suits against specific members of the CRU based on what was said about them in the emails and the intimation that some of them were forced from their jobs by the AGW cabal.
150 - great thread, Yellow Sub.
On Laws: he’s a bit of a a bete noir for some in the Party, worngly so in my opinion. Not really right for leader, but he should get one of the top jobs soon. I’m always amazed how positiviely my non-politico friends and relations find him when they see him on QT etc.
156. “There is a lot of cultural space left for a collectivist and traditionalist party of the left in Britain still.”
In England I’m not sure that’s the case outside Northern cities and the poorer parts of Birmingham and London.
If the Tories wanted to really screw Labour they could:
(1) Reform Union funding rules - capping donations and giving a choice to the members on the political levy
(2) Reduce size of Public Sector - move to local wage bargaining rather than national; undermining unions still
(3) Boundary changes - ruthlessly purge overrepresentated inner-city seats and redraw Scottish/Welsh seat boundaries again
(4) EVFEL - beef up this so Labour find it hard to get a HoC majority in England again
(5) Focus enterprise zones in heavily ethnic areas to poach Labours hold on the ethnic vote
I doubt that’ll happen because the Tory party is just not as “political” as Labour - we’re just not as good at it and less interested in it.
But trouble is that even if all those disadvantages were given to Labour it would still require the Liberal Democrats to rise to the occassion to surpass them.
And they just… don’t.
171 - Your last point makes Jan/Feb 6/1 the best value.
181. My spelling. Ugh.
Climategate has just hit the US and the new target is their version of CRU: GISS (which is controlled by the notorious Hansen):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/cei-files-notice-of-intent-to-sue-nasa-giss/
164. “I searched the SNP website for what they regarded as their highest poll rating for Westminster elections.”
Tim, you are making an interesting case, but just a little suggestion. When you find yourself searching the SNP website to look at their responses to polls perhaps its time to leave the computer alone and go for a walk, maybe get some fresh air or something. This can’t be good for you
Enjoyed the debate between YS and Tabman today, and agree that Mike should do a thread on this. Or maybe YS or Tabman could write a guest post?
176. Not radically but it is still slightly overrepresented.
181. “I doubt that’ll happen because the Tory party is just not as “political” as Labour - we’re just not as good at it and less interested in it.”
The words ‘poll tax’ and ‘Dame Shirley Porter’ spring to mind for some reason…
182 - Well, that depends on how you see the possibility of Brown going. If he does: (a) Labour will get a boost, but I would estimate only to about an underlying deficit of 6-7% as opposed to the current c. 12%. Obviously other events and sampling noise might superimpose on that to give a lead; and (b) there’ll be a G.E.-level of polling in the subsequent few weeks.
If you think Brown is odds-on to go, then I agree Jan/Feb looks a fair bet.
179 Richard, thanks. It’s quite extraordinary what little accountability the organisations involved in this debacle have; it appears to be a free for all. Take the money, do what you like, and no one can slap your wrist.
185 - Fair comment, but best go to the horses mouth.
I’ve been out to see An Education, a masterpiece,its put me in a very good mood.
As have George Osbornes Mortgage claims.
Can someone sort this innumerate 40% economist out please, he’s an embarrassment.
186 - Mike, happy to do this - you’d need to put us in touch!
Some of the most amusing things on here are the constant references to tim being some form of paid bot.
The fact of the matter is his attacks are repetitive, boring, generally without much point and certainly without effect. Who would pay for someone who is in fact really just a bit crap?
Even the bunker can attract better talent than tim, so why do people insist on massaging tim’s ego by thinking that he is actually good enough to deserve to be paid for his crap?
Benedict Brogan in the Telegraph - When Harriet makes way for David
191. Will have to try to get a chance to see it soon then. Roger recommended it yesterday and tipped it for Oscar potential if i recall correctly.
193 don, just ignore him. Most of the grenades he’s tossed into this afternoons thread have failed to detonate.
193. Maybe he’s a paid bot for the Tory party? God knows he is doing a good job of stopping me from ever voting Labour again.
From Guardian Media Twitter…
C4 invests in political blogger Slugger O’Toole http://bit.ly/4WRYNO
Fort those who appreciate AWG humour - I
http://borepatch.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-happens-when-you-run-climate.html
Sam Coates on the Red Box - Another step towards the death of New Labour?
197 LOL!
There are one or two Conservative posters on here who have a corresponding effect on any temptation I feel to vote Tory, Glw!
Every Party has them.
195 - Screenplay, Actress and Supporting Actor.
Alfred Molina is fantastic.
200 - I’m not sure how many steps have been taken thus far, but the shoe leather must be wearing thin…
181. Agreed, CR. Especially since 1979 England has been, essentially, a economically liberal country with a bit of conscience-cleansing welfarism chucked in for good measure. There’s pockets of socialist support, but these are few and far between and concentrated in the old industrial cities.
194 - Harriet was a false favourite, in the Hague mould for ages.
Brogan has it right.
170 & 191 tim
On Osborne: Can someone sort this innumerate 40% economist out please, he’s an embarrassment.
I think you’ll find £150 per annum is within the MOE.
Expense claims are not opinion polls. When assessing which party has suffered most, take the highest monetary claim by a Labour politician and attribute it to the party as a whole.
202 - Just listened to Alfred Molina reading Steven Pressfield’s “Killing Rommel” audiobook.
He’s very good.
195 jimbojones, it could have tough competition from the new Rob Marshall film ‘NINE’. Ditto ‘The Last Station’.
Iain Martin at his WSJ - Scotland: Labour Prospers as Tories Get Nowhere
206 - the one person in any aspirant government who really ought to be 100% accurate on anything financial is a putative chancellor. That he isn’t speaks volumes.
Peter Hoskin at the Coffee House Blog - Yet another poll for the mix
208 EdP
Thanks. I didn’t even realize they’d made a film of The Last Station. Will have to make a point of watching it.
The book by Parini was superbly crafted - of course, it helps that Tolstoy is such a wonderfully fascinating character.
My current prediction with about 23 weeks to go is: C- 39%, Lab - 27%, LD - 20%, UKIP - 5%.
180 I don’t understand the opprobium heaped on David Laws either. From what I’ve seen,he’s lightyears ahead of Huhne in terms of public performance.
212 wibbler, it’s released in the UK mid February. It’s very good - hard to find fault with any aspect.
206 - Doesn’t say much for Gideons Abacus.
On the month mortgage payments are limited to £1250 he tries to claim £1400.
The Wright Committee that I’ve been involved in reports, almost unanimously (one Tory and one Labour member wanted to defer to the next parliament):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/24/mps-backbenchers-reform-house-commons
———–
IPSA members announced:
Rt Hon Lord Justice Scott Baker (as a former holder of high judicial office)
Professor Isobel Sharp CBE (as an NAO qualified auditor)
Jackie Ballard (as a former Member of the House of Commons)
Ken Olisa
214.Benji, I certainly rate David Laws. And so did George Osborne when he tried to love bomb him into coming across to the dark side a while back.
I think it went something like this - Are you dancing?
Are you asking?
Yes I am asking
Well I am not dancing
Wow and double wow !!
extrabet have Labour 218-213 even after the ARS poll.
typo 208-213. Doesn’t negate the wows though.
180. 214 Is opprobium heaped on Laws? By the LibDems?
Odd if true.
Much much better than Huhne. Articulate without the smugness and the aggression.
Casino Royale @ 181
Make the levy ‘opt in’.
I was a member of a large union and it was the devils own job to get out of the Political Levy.
The exemption form meant nothing.
It took two years and only ended with threats of legal action.
Afterwards they sent a cheque each January.
The Area offical with 20 odd years experience at the time gave me the inpression it was first time anyone had ever asked.
Strange:
LDs only down by 2%-5% in national polls but down 11% in Scotland.
Labour down about 10% in UK polls but staying the same as 2005 in Scotland.
221 “Much much better than Huhne [YES]. Articulate without the smugness and the aggression. [NO]”
I’ve seen him a few times and he comes across as a smart arse.
217 Nick Palmer MP
Good work on the report, the proposals sound pretty good.
I have some concerns with secret elections to select committees though. I don’t trust MPs not to behave in a very partisan manner. I would prefer delayed release of voting records - with votes published for one Parliament after a new Parliament is formed.
I have little faith that Labour MPs would vote for Tory chairmen, or vice-versa - and the Lib Dems and minor parties would get no chairs.
More fundamentally, I also want elected representatives held accountable for the decisions they make, even on “procedural” matters.
224 In person?
210 Tabman
the one person in any aspirant government who really ought to be 100% accurate on anything financial is a putative chancellor. That he isn’t speaks volumes.
I fear you share tim’s misunderstanding of finance and politics.
Osborne made a minor bookkeeping and/or compliance error in his parliamentary expenses claim for mortgage interest reimbursement. Bookkeeping and compliance are important clerical functions in finance, but proficiency in either or both is not a qualification or skillset required for the political office of Chancellor.
tim talks of Osborne being a 40% economist as if this is a lesser qualification for office than being a 60% or 80% economist. Once again, qualifications as an economist are not preconditions for being Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Gordon Brown, who by education and training is a 0% Economist, has been the longest serving Chancellor in modern history. It is arguable that he has also been the least successful. Would this have been the case if he had been a 100% economist by training or if he been more accurate with his figures than his letters?
What makes a good Chancellor, apart from luck, is a broad set of political leadership skills.
Osborne’s claim error was careless and regrettable. Yet it determines his acceptability for the Office of Chancellor as much as wearing odd socks by mistake.
It sounds like Channel 4 have a blockbuster interview with a civil servant whistleblower on Iraq slamming Chilcot.
The Telegraph have also published their leaked Iraq documents
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6645716/Iraq-war-files-leaked-reports-published-in-full.html
221 - The problem with Laws is that while he would be a good leader it would be of the Tories rather than the Liberals as the sandal brigade would never accept him. He is certainly more right-wing than Cameron anyway!
230 Are you LD?
230 I can see where you’re coming from there - I still don’t like him though.
227 - Perhaps he hadn’t read about the £1250 Mortgage limit for MP’s
After all its not been in the news much since May.
230 - Laws will lose to Tim Farron in the next Lib Dem leadership contest 2014.
Mervyn King criticises Gordon Brown over budget deficit
The Bank of England Governor has issued his harshest rebuke yet to Gordon Brown, suggesting that the Prime Minister’s plans to cut Britain’s budget deficit do not go far enough.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6645067/Mervyn-King-criticises-Gordon-Brown-over-budget-deficit.html
After the MORI poll excitement it’s all gone a bit flat again. I imagine the odds are lengthening again for a Feb or March polling date though I haven’t checked since the weekend. In truth though it is difficult to see how a GE in March will be any worse for Labour than May/June. If anything at the margins I suspect waiting to the last moment will only increase the scale of the defeat as the public perceive they are only holding on so their about to be defeated MPs can receive another couple of months salary. The one weapon Brown has is surprise and catching unsuspecting and maybe unprepared opposition constituency parties out by taking the initiative with an early date and going for a short sharp campaign.
234.You would do better to look back over the last year with a more honest eye. The reasons for these poll findings are very clear. I did tip an SNP decline in the polls on the back of their performance and their Conference this year.
234 Eh?
The poll will not be ‘rigged’. It was conducted by YouGov, wasn’t it?
The questions could be leading [haven't seen them] or some such but if you are going to take a pop you should look for methodological flaws that support your view rather than make sweeping potentially libelous statements just cos you are ‘dismayed’ by the results.
By the way, conspiracy theories have a tendancy tend to make folks look nuts.
232 I don’t think it is possible for anyone to make a more negative Impression than Huhne. Everytime I see him on the TV I can feel the Lib Dem voters departing in droves.
Love this post by Leslie Moss on UK Polling.
‘Analysis of last two opinion polls.
Tory optimists – Mori is a rogue, Angus Reid has it spot on
Tory pessimists – Mori is extreme but in the right direction, AR
is a rogue
Labour optimists – Mori is spot on, AR is a rogue
Labour pessimists – Mori is a rogue, AR is spot on
LD optimists – Mori is a rogue, AR is a rogue
LD pessimists – Mori is a rogue, AR is a rogue’
wibbler at 225: thanks! To avoid parties imposing their will on others, the proposal for secret election of members is by parties - essentially as now the parties would agree to share the chairs, so if the Conservatives chaired Justice, for instance, then only Conservatives could stand for that chair, and candidates would need a minimum number of nominations from their party, so you wouldn’t get parties imposing mavericks on each other. The other committee members would be selected by each party separately - so if the Libdems had two seats on a committee, they’d select them. The reason for secret ballots is simply to disempower the whips - the average voters won’t care if I voted for Smith or jones, but the whips would be keenly interested.
On a more partisan note, the fallout from the car-crash that is Tory-run Nottinghamshire continues, with a whole series of critical pieces in the generally neutral Nottingham Evening Post, numerous petitions under way, and now this:
http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/news/Tory-quits-party-county-budget-cuts/article-1535967-detail/article.html
YouGov Scottish poll details are available - unfortunately details for “others” are only available for the list poll.
Party, Westminster, change cf 2005, SP Const, change cf 2007, SP List, change cf 2007
Lab, 39%, (0), 33%, (1), 30%, (1)
SNP, 24%, (6), 32%, (-1), 29%, (-2)
Con, 18%, (2), 15%, (-2), 14%, (0)
LD, 12%, (-11), 14%, (-2), 14%, (3)
Green, -%, (-), -%, (-), 6%, (2)
SSP/Sol, -%, (-), -%, (-), 4%, (3)
What is remarkable is how little change there has been since the last relevant election - apart from the collapse of the LD vote for Westminster, and its capture by the SNP (plus Con and “others”). On these results, the SNP would lose its largest party status at Holyrood, but largely to the Greens and SSP.
The majority against independence has been highlighted, but what hasn’t been noted is the satisfaction with the SNP Government
Approve 41% : Disapprove 36%.
238 Perhaps you should stop and listen to what he actually says rather venting your instinctive (and no doubt party politically driven) dislike for the man. He performed perfectly well on This Week last Thursday - check it out on BBC i-player. At least he gets noticed which is not something you can say about some Lib Dem frontbenchers much to my regret.
Ok I retract my comments about the poll.
On reflection I have to respect the polling organization’s integrity. Guess I had one too many glasses of wine. Disappointing, but guess I just have to live with it.
217 Grrr Jackie Ballard, is she still hanging around? I thought we had at last seen the back of her, not my favourite person!
David Laws was “love bombed” by Osborne?
Given where Osborne trawls, in the press gutter for a bully
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=1&storycode=44687&c=1
I’m not surprised Laws rejected him.
Although Osborne/Coulson probably looks good compared with Hague/K#minski
244, if only Osborne were as pure as McBride. If only!
244, mummy, mummy, you’re not watching me, mummy mummy look at me.
Sad tit.
233 - Tim, do you think Tim Farron will hold his seat at the next GE?
Beeb on evening PMQs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8376473.stm
Did anyone else see that former civil servant on C4 news?
WOW
141. Sir Norfolk, I am happy to take up your bet , I believe the SNP will improve their position in the 2011 election. If you would like to define your bet and send to Peter the Punter we can agree the bet.
244.
Osborne - Check.
Coulson - Check.
Cameron - Check.
Hague - Check.
Kaminski - Check.
Full House!
246 You are a BNP and anti-AGW conspiracy moonbat and I claim David Icke’s collected works
247 - Comfortably.
I’ll offer £50 at evens that he gets a majority of 2000 or more.
245 - Its a great shame that people like McBride and Coulson get so close to the centre of power.
249 What happened ?
re 241 oldnat not only would the SNP lose their largest party status, that poll would see the Lab/LD coalition back in. My calculator gives
Lab 48
SNP 40
LD 18
C 17
Green 5
Other 1
Tim nice but dim
256. Sadly both untrue.
Chris, Dream on , that will not happen.
253 - Interesting, well i wont take you up on that offer, Ladbrokes are offering 7/4 on the Tories taking Westmorland and Lonsdale.
Myners tap dancing manfully on C4
the economy’s continued decline owes much to underlying instability among financial institutions. Lloyds remains exposed: its rights issue was called to redress deficits incurred by the ill-advised purchase of HBOS, which was effectively made blind. It is a case of six of one and half a dozen of another, though Fallon and Vince Cable are correct that the Government must explain why it propped up HBOS whilst trying to convince Lloyds to buy it, presumably to enhance Brown’s Messianic credentials.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5568548/there-are-more-pressing-financial-concerns-than-this.thtml
I’m sure it’s been touched on but what exactly was Cameron doing in Cumbria? Those many posters who felt the Prime Ministers presence last week was just a cheap photo op must have been in despair as they saw the leader of the opposition doing the same thing.
242 Laws performs more impressively than Huhne IMHO,there is nothing partisan about it. FWIW Byrne and Grayling I find equally repulsive.
Robert Peston off the reservation…
Has the cloak-and-dagger performance done any serious damage?
Well some shareholders in Lloyds will have their fears reinforced that they weren’t in full possession of the facts in approving their banks’ takeover of HBOS - although it’s unclear whether those Lloyds owners who want redress will have their claims strengthened in a legal sense.
Also I am not sure that this example of covert ops by the Bank of England will promote financial stability in a long-term sense.
There will be many in the market who will now wonder what other horrors the Bank of England feels it can’t unveil “devant les enfants”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2009/11/why_did_bank_of_england_keep_s.html
261. Absolutely.
Fortunately, I wasn’t one of them.
I think Mr Brown ‘likes’ floods. I think he thinks they are his ‘thing’. They remind him of happier times.
He will be very annoyed that Dave hasn’t found his own natural disaster. The man should wait for a plague of locusts or some such.
261 - Compared to many of Camerons photo ops, I think this one is justified to be frank, as was Browns.
How good is Alfred Molina in An Education?
259. A word of advice based on something I heard from a fellow Lib Dem supporter who lives in that seat I believe he is quite popular locally because of his interest and good work with hill farmers and generally on rural affairs etc. I would expect him to hold that seat.
I’m sure it’s been touched on but what exactly was Cameron doing in Cumbria? Those many posters who felt the Prime Ministers presence last week was just a cheap photo op must have been in despair as they saw the leader of the opposition doing the same thing.
by Roger November 24th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Did anybody say it was a cheap photo op? All I remember is people laughing at Brown for ordering things to happen that were either already happening or were blindingly obvious. Bridge checks being one example. Do you have any examples or names of people criticising the “photo op”?
Myners incredibly evasive and dodgy on C4.
I think tim is having a wobbly tonight deesperately striking out at all and sundry, Best to scroll past.
Just listening to Today about AWG - the UEA/Labour spokesperson [Julia Slinger ?] is quaking in her boots.
Why did they put this numpty up except as a sacrificial offering?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00nxcrz
re 258 malcolm I’m not saying it will just UNS predicts that it might.
264 - I think you must’ve missed Camerons “Oh Lord why have forsaken us” pose in the great “someone knocked over a pint of shandy” Witney floods of 2007
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_02/David220707PA_468×671.jpg
re 270 AWG?
268.Wibbler, ditto.
271.”re 258 malcolm I’m not saying it will just UNS predicts that it might.”
Chris A, going to be interesting to see what happens on election night.
268 I think Osborne should announce that if the Conservatives win they will hold a full public enquiry headed by a Judge into the circumstances of the Lloyds purchase of HBOS and the involvement of No 10, the Treasury, BoE and any other parties.
It’s important we learn lessons from this.
255 Chris A
Losing largest party status automatically puts the SNP out of power, and Labour in. Whether the LDs would guarantee to reform their alliance with Labour is another matter. We’ve now had experience of minority government, and the LDs might want to keep it that way - especially with the amount of their Westminster vote that has gone SNP.
btw You’ve not calculated the SSP/Solidarity vote. Depends if Solidarity still exists in 2011 to split the Socialist vote, but on these figures, I’d expect to see a couple of Socialists in the Parliament.
“166.Why does Obama feel compelled to bow to everybody except Gordon Brown?”
Because it’s what decent honourable people do.
People in the UK would be amazed at the meme being spread that the Asia Tour was disastrous because the President didn’t shout, scream and demand his own way, whilst ignoring national traditions and protocol. There will likely be a temporary hit in the polls because these people just don’t understand what it is to be a decent human being and not Dick Cheney but, after a while, we can but hope that diplomatic behaviour starts to be understandable once more.
I know that people following the coverage here would be astonished at the above focus but that truly is the pitiful state of the debate in the States.
266 So would I but I would suggest Benji’s comments were more tempered and less partisdan that your reply. Its a bit hard to conclude someone is ‘venting’ their parisan nature when comparing someone favourably/unfavourably to someone in the same party.
FWIW I am a huge fan of Osborne but I accept that others are genuine in feeling otherwise. The views Benji expressed about Huhne are neither new nor surprising to many.
I would view a David Laws defection to us as a victory for the Tories. I would view a Huhne defection and a defeat for the LDs.
273 - Anthropogenic Warming-Gate?
OT. I saw ‘A Serious Man’ yesterday where the theme of the film revolves around the theory of ’schrodingers cat’. I’ve just looked it up and unless wikipedia is missing something it doesn’t exactly dazzle with it’s profundity. Am I missing something?
270, do you have an approximate time in the programme for the AWG item on the today prog?
281 About 10 mins from the end.
Should we be watching Ch4+1 at 8 then?
tks plato.
Unfortunately, as soon as Sir John kicked off proceedings, he and his fellow Privy Councillors engaged with witnesses with a chumminess that did nothing to dispel the image that this is a far from independent inquiry.
The whole event felt for all the world as if the Athenaeum had been evacuated to a multi-storey car-park in Slough. I never expected the Spanish Inquisition, but this was a cross between a Chatham House seminar and a fireside chat at the Ambassador’s residence. Without the Ferrero Rocher.
Our Man in Saudi (Sir William Patey) was quizzed by Our Former Man in Moscow (Sir Roderic Lyne). Simon Webb, the MoD official witness, opened by pointing out that he had recently been elevated to a position chosen by Inquiry panellists Lady Prashar and Sir Lawrence Freedman.
The Knights of the Formica Round table were very accommodating, Chilcot himself nodding enthusiastically in agreement when Sir Peter Ricketts of the Foreign Office gave the Government line on Saddam and sanctions. All of them joked about the dastardly French and the money-grabbing Russians blocking brave Britain’s attempts to sort out Saddam. As for the Americans, well they were clearly unaware of the legality of ‘regime change’.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/the-hutton-inquiry-it-aint.html
The HBOS/RBS prop up money was probably needed but the secrecy after it had been paid back can only be because of possible embarrasment to Daling and Brown.
That is a blatant misuse of power.
GB goes strutting his stuff on the global stage when at home he had been reduced to acting like a loan shark.
No wonder Mervyn King keeps having a sideswipe at GB whenever he gets the opportunity.
285 [Heart sinks]
I am embarrassed with myself.
I don’t know why I still believe.
I should have learnt by now.
280 - Quantum mechanics Roger, the cat is neither alive nor dead. Subatomic particles break apart the rules of classical physics and can be in more than one state at once until observed, like the putative moggy.
Whether you go with the Copenhagen or the Many Worlds interpretation is an interesting choice. I’m currently working on something which posits the latter (seriously, theoretical physics goes theatrical!)
(I know I’m a mere arts teacher but hopefully my knowledge of quantum mechanics, the most fascinating area of science, stands up!)
OT Two interesting articles about Obama and the Democrats prospects:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/23/AR2009112303216.html?sub=AR
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/24/us/politics/24nagourney.html
What makes them interesting is that they are from the behemoths of leftward-leaning MSM - the Washington Post and the New York Times.
The Post article notes that “Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no president with an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and no president with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection” and goes on to note Obama’s 49% rating in the lastest Gallup poll.
The Times article notes the “Unsurprising Slide for Obama” in the polls. It goes on to note that, until now, Republican governors want to run against Obama’s unpopular policies, not the man, but that other Republican strategists think that the difference in Obama’s popularity as a person vs the unpopularity of his policies will converge to the latter, and that hence they will be able to run against Obama (rather than the candidates) in both House and Senate races, based on his unpopularity. This was unthinkable just a few months ago…
278 Perhaps you should reread his comments at 238. That was what I was commenting on. The comparison to Laws was made earlier in the thread.
286. It’s not clear from the coverage thus far whether the loans were in fact “paid back” using taxpayer bailout money. That could be embarrassing
Well seeing Dave in Cumbria you are reminded he won’t be bothered by the lack of bridges, according to most of the contributors to this site, he’ll just be able to walk across the rivers.
Re Chilcot enquiry at 285
An interviewer is much more likely to get the truth out of them by adopting a friendly tone than an agressive tone - given that torture is apparently off limits for now.
261: ‘…but what exactly was Cameron doing in Cumbria?’
If you recall, last time there was flooding Dave got it in the neck from the Daily Mail for poncing around the continent of Africa and getting all sentimental about some genocide or other in Wogga-wogga land. Presumably Dave did not wish to be accused again of such a self-indulgence.
219 “Wow and double wow !! extrabet have Labour 218-213 even after the ARS poll.”
That answers your betting question. Play the gap between reality and how media Guardianista wishful thinking reports the reality.
278 I did read his comment. I was part of the discussion in which we were all [Plato excepted] being very complimentary about a different LDer.
289. Paul. That was seriously impressive. I can’t say I understood what you just wrote but your enthusiasm has given me the will to find out more. Incidentally you must see the film (Coen Bros). It’s unusually intelligent for an American film and after your post at 278 might even restore your faith in Americans observation and behaviour
284. “Should we be watching Ch4+1 at 8 then?”
Watch the last 10 minutes. The funeral of Olaf Schmid
296-Do you mean 208-213?
Another myth bites the dust. 25% of recruits to US army come from wealthiest areas / higher educated. CNBC
276&292.Ted & ScottP, agreed. Why was this information released today?
281 and 289 (Shroedinger’s cat)
Cats have other strange properties too:
http://www.catswhothrowupgrass.com/kill.php
302. ChristinaD. Merv was giving evidence today. Why he could admit today what was secret till now, I don’t know.
298 - I’m backed up on films at the moment, it’s on my list though (but it may have to wait for the DVD). Have you seen ‘The White Ribbon’? If so, what did you think? I liked how it sounded in the reviews.
On Quantum mechanics and so on, I’m doing quite a bit of thinking and work in the link of drama and science at the moment, partly as a wish to counter some of the anti-science ignorance out there in the wider (and political) world. I’m currently trying to get my head around the use of quantum physics in biological processes, photosynthesis appears to show similarities for example. After that then there are some who think they are on the way to being able to understand consciousness, now *that* would be literally mind blowing.
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/11/harriet-harmans-embarassing-neighbours.html
O/T Composition of the EU Commission - the final list
With Netherlands (re)naming N Kroes today, we have finally the full list. Not the portfolios of course (negotiations are ongoing).
Austria: Johannes Hahn (EPP) - 52
Belgium: Karel de Gucht (ALDE) - 55
Bulgaria: Rumiana Jeleva (EPP) - 40
Czech Republic: Štefan Füle (independent) - 47
Cyprus: Androulla Vassiliou (ALDE) - 66
Denmark: Connie Hedegaard (EPP) - 49
Estonia: Siim Kallas (ALDE) - 61
Finland: Olli Rehn (ALDE) - 47
France: Michel Barnier (EPP) - 58
Germany: Gunther Oettinger (EPP) - 56
Greece: Maria Damanaki (S&D) - 57
Hungary: László Andor (Independent) - 43
Ireland: Maire Geoghegan Quinn (ALDE) - 59
Italy: Antonio Tajani (EPP) - 56
Latvia: Andris Piebalgs (ALDE) - 52
Lithuaniua: Algirdas Semeta (EPP) - 47
Luxemburg: Viviane Reding (EPP) - 58
Netherlands: Neelie Kroes (ALDE) - 68
Poland: Janusz Lewandowski (EPP) - 58
Portugal: Jose Manuel Barroso (EPP) - 53
Romania: Dacian Cioloş (ALDE) - 40
Slovenia: Janez Potočnik (independent) - 51
Slovakia: Maros Šefčovič (S&D) - 43
SpainJoaquìn Almunia (S&D) - 61
Sweden: Cecilia Malmstrom (ALDE) - 41
UK: Catherine Ashton (S&D) - 53
Average age: 50.7
9 women for 18 men (it was 8/19 in the previous Commission)
The abysmal weakeness of the European left in national governments is demonstrated in the party affiliation breakdown:
EPP 10
ALDE 9
S&D 4
Independents 3
Socialists now have less than 15% of commissars , while having 25.8% of Euro Mps. On the opposite, ALDE gets 1/3 of the Commissars while only gaining 12.7% of the Euro Parliament seats last June.
All the Norwichgate/ImmigrationGate theorists on here must tune in to C4 news.
The conspiracy theory psches, SeanT, Plato et al have been joined by the delightful Glenn Beck.
It fulfils a need in the same people who thought they had the inside track on Dianas death.
They have their own song.
Ah, look at all the lonely people.
Ah, look at all the lonely people.
Eleanor Rigby picks up the rice in the church where a wedding has been,
Lives in a dream.
Waits at the window, wearing a face she keeps in a jar by the door,
Who is it for?
All the lonely people, where do they all come from?
All the lonely people, where do they all belong?
Father McKenzie, writing the words of a sermon that no-one will hear,
No-one comes near
Look at him working, darning his socks in the night when there�s nobody there,
What does he care?
All the lonely people, where do they all come from?
All the lonely people, where do they all belong?
Ah, look at all the lonely people.
Ah, look at all the lonely people.
Eleanor Rigby died in the church and was buried along with her name.
Nobody came.
Father McKenzie, wiping the dirt from his hands as he walks from the grave.
No-one was saved.
All the lonely people, where do they all come from?
All the lonely people, where do they all belong?
tim, Alf Molina is excellent in “An education”. But then he is generally excellent. And one of the most hard-working guys around. Always busy.
You’ll enjoy him in The Tempest, where he and Russell Brand play the clowns. Top drawer.
295. Stark D. “If you recall, last time there was flooding Dave got it in the neck from the Daily Mail for poncing around…..Presumably Dave did not wish to be accused again of such a self-indulgence”
That was his own constituency. Why Cumbria?.
305:
Quantum mechanics also enters into the macroscopic world. Concerning photosynthesis, for example, that grass is green is directly quantum mechanical. The current state of QM is, I believe, not able to cope with the fact that in the last analysis both the measurer and the system he/she meassures are both quantum mechanical entities. The traditional interpretation has the measurer as macroscopiuc and therefore classical.
310 - WebCumbrian, CumbrianDirect
297 Thanks for the support Sally. I like most of the LD frontbench,particularly Laws and David Heath,and I think Clegg has upped his game recently. Huhne,however,still makes me feel like punching him after another one of his sanctimonious offerings.
298- Roger
I agree, “A serious man” was great, even if disturbing in its total absence of clear narrative or simple explanation.
I think it was their best (serious) movie since “The barber”
281/289. The use of the cat forces attention onto the paradoxical nature of quantum physics. If someone says that a subatomic particle is simultaneously in two states it’s easy to say, “Sure, whatever”. Bringing the cat into the picture makes it impossible to shrug off the complete outrage being done to our intuitions.
289 & 298. I’ve always liked Schrodinger’s cat.
Since learning a little about quantum physics, I’ve wanted to have a restaurant called the Heisenberg Cafe, where you can either chose your dish, or the price, but not both.
310 Because, Roger, Cameron will be PM before any of those Cumbrian houses have dried out and are fit for habitation again. It will be in his in-tray. The people of the NW will be better served by a promise to sort it from Cameron than from Brown.
311 - I found this article particularly interesting. The idea of naturally occuring processes choosing the best path only after examining every possibility at the same time lends support to the idea that quantum computing may not need supercooled vacuums and the like to be plausible.
http://discovermagazine.com/2009/feb/13-is-quantum-mechanics-controlling-your-thoughts/article_view?b_start:int=0&-C=
100 - ah tim being tim and trying to undermine posters credibility yet again.
you really are not in a position to cast doubts on others credibility timmy.
Anyway tim, how worried should I be? Gordo talked about 50 days to save the world and errrrm, he is getting nowhere fast.
going nowhere fast….. just like Labour …. tick tick tick
318 Is Quantum Mechanics Controlling Your Thoughts?
I’ve often thought so. Whilst simultaneously reviewing and discarding all other possible outcomes…
300. Yes
ukpaul on the brain on quantum physics, have you read Roger Penrose, The Emperor’s New Mind: Concerning Computers, Minds, and the Laws of Physics, Oxford Univ. Press, 1989?
Apologies if its been posted before, but it looks like Obama has made his mind up about the troop surge..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6646411/Barack-Obama-to-send-34000-more-troops-to-Afghanistan.html
320 (cont) should have been to 299
316. cf nerdish joke about Heisenberg being caught speeding: “have you any idea how fast you were going, sir?” “no, officer, but I do know exactly where I am”.
322 - Not yet but I’m looking for a Penrose book that I can understand! Any ideas?
re 296. Well the latest Extra Labour spread is 208 - 213.
SPIN has moved up to 205 - 210
317 - In addition, the North Pole is now out, with the red face/snowy backdrop giving photo/makeup issues on a Rudolphian scale.
324 (cont) either my eyes are going mental or the numbers keep changing
325 I’ll try that next time I’m stopped and asked that question. I expect blank stares followed by irritation and increased fine…
326 No, I’ve always found him impenetrable, even on simpler maths concepts
310: ‘That was his own constituency. Why Cumbria?.’
Well, in my view it’s unnecessary for any politician to turn up to these disaster areas just to get in the way of the emergency and clean-up services. However, there are benefits to be had. In 2007 Brown’s helicopter ride over a few rain-sodden Cotswold fields (at God knows what expense to the taxpayer) had him hailed in some quarters as the ‘Father of the nation’ - albeit ludicrously, albeit temporarily. Personally, I’d like to see Prince Philip turn up to these events and make some gaffe such as ‘It’s lucky you people round here all have webbed feet’ or whatever. Much more fun!
318:
That’s outside my knowledge. But the idea of a particle “trying” out all possible paths connecting points A and B was Richard Feynman’s in his THESIS(!) in about 1948. It is mathematically ok, but that view was initially for small microscopic systems, and later (I think) for fields. Some study would be required to see if the article you quote has substance. I’m not clever enough I think.
311, quantum decoherence addresses part, maybe all, of that problem. if the measurement system is entangled with the environment, and microstates of the environment are averaged over, then interference between the different classical states of the measurement system is suppressed, making it effectively classical. That is, the wave function doesn’t collapse, but it looks like it has to all classical-scale observers.
MrJones, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. A perfect example being the pb.com numbering system…
135 <<<—– oooh tim, tim is this another conspiracy?
Or are Labour being sub optimal with the truth (again)
“whiter than white” LMAO
334 Thanks. That is the clearest explanation of the collapsing of the wave function I’ve read to date.
Why do McIntyre, Liddle or White not discuss quantum mechanics on their blogs?
I take it all you quanties have seen the news that the LHC has managed its first collision?
Article on how the Bank of England might have hidden 61.6 billion
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100002192/how-the-bank-of-england-made-62bn-disappear/
Oh and it looks like Jedward are heading for the jungle…
335 -
(and, of course, that may be for a different post number if they change again!)
On Schrodinger’s Cat - ukpaul’s explanation is sound. The point of it is to illustrate the rather wacky implications of quantum mechanics - which are confined to the ultra-microscopic sub-atomic world - in the everyday world. The example was Schrodinger’s method of demonstrating that the ultra-microscopic world (with its bizarre laws) can directly translate into the conventional macroscopic world that we experience.
One major facet of quantum mechanics is that events do not occur until observed. A subatomic particle, rather than being a discreet ball whirring through space, is a kind of probability cloud containing all the information of what it could potentially be. One example is the Double slit experiment, where individual particles of light may travel through either of two slits. It is found that until they are observed, they do not in fact go through a single slit but both at the same time - if you only observe them when they strike the back plate. This then gives a classic interference pattern.
If, however, you modify the apparatus to measure which slit each photon goes through … the interference pattern won’t form. As it’s impossible for a photon to actually go through both slits simultaneously.
Schrodinger suggested that if you set up an experiment such that your cat (in a box) would be killed if a single subatomic particle is given off by a decaying radioactive isotope (any competent engineer should be able to set it up), the entire scenario would be in a similar state of “not properly existing in either state until measured”. Which means that until you open the box, the cat isn’t alive. Or dead. It’s in an indeterminate state of probability, neither alive nor dead (all assuming that the cat isn’t qualified to observe itself, of course).
339 - Too much money obviously, us poor people have no other way to spend our time.
308 The Global Warming Scam is two conspiracies.
1) The “dark satanic mills” personality type is always looking for proof that those nasty, dirty machines are the end of the world. They are forever making up apocalyptic theories about ice ages, Gaia’s revenge or the world running out of sand.
They’re not particularly bad people and on their own they’d be pretty harmless.
2) The much nastier, altogether 100% vile bookworm sociopath filth aka marxists. After the collapse of c*mmunism in the Soviet Union they were looking for a new vehicle for their eternal quest for “progress” where “progress” is defined as ever increasing power for bookworm sociopaths over other people’s lives.
They decided to pick the latest of the Green apocalyptic theories as the new vehicle for their never ending dream of absolute power in a totalitarian state.
308. Agree with you in principle, however your long song quote makes me want to write out the lyrics to the cannibalism classic “Timothy.”
342. I’m sure a CRU climate “scientist” could tell you with complete accuracy that the cat is definitely dead 100 years before you opened the box.
And get it peer-reviewed.
344 - Six Shadow Cabinet Ministers are making speeches on the Environment this week.
OK, most of them are window dressing,
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e0721fa-d931-11de-b2d5-00144feabdc0.html
But I can’t help but think it’s unfortunate timing if the Tories on here are representative.
While having time spare to vilify cat death deniers.
Slightly disappointed nobody has made any quantum polling allusions. The parties are neither ahead in the polls, or behind; they are both, until the votes are counted!
347 LOL
342:
And if you “ask” the cat at any time whether it’s alive or dead then you are performing a *measurement* and irreversibly changing the state of the system—collapsing the wave function in techie jargon.
340. To be honest there is less to this story than meets the eye. It was well known that the Bank’s balance sheet had increased sharply in the final quarter of 2008 and that this was due to stepped up lending to the banking sector. The identity of the recipient banks and the precise amounts of support given them wasn’t known but it didn’t take too much musing to work out who they were.
Some of the political noise this story has generated today is pretty silly and looks very synthetic.
Actually I suggested to timbot the other day, for Schrodinger reasons, that if he doesn’t read the news ever again Labour won’t lose the election.
335 Heisenberg numbering - perfect explanation.
347 I would have thought you’d be the first to suggest that the Tories are a bit green.
Pretty sure that, if QM had a cost factor, or if it was opposed by religious fundies, we’d be having a knock down argument about there being not enough evidence that it existed….
Maybe, in a parallel universe we are.
344, MrJones:
This has real possibilities. Get seanT in here.
Evening all. I see things have calmed down since the weekend’s orgy of over-reaction to MORI.
On the Paddy Power ‘Labour lead’ market: it doesn’t look attractive to me. The most likely winner is the 2/5 ‘Not at any time option’, but I don’t think those odds are good value since, as Aaron points out, there will be lots of polls and there’s always the possibility of another MORI hiccup.
Those who still think that Brown might depart in the New Year would do far better to take Paddy Power’s 11/2 on a Dec-Feb exit, since if Brown were to go that wouldn’t guarantee even a temporary a Labour lead. However, I think Brown is glued in place now.
267 - there was something wrong with your post
Ah
Myners incredibly evasive and dodgy
Fixed it for you
Election forecaster now making probabilistic forecast of Con maj of 27…
We need some more results from the East, Scotland, South West, East Mids and North West
http://tinyurl.com/4p3mwq
One for tim - I know he’ll be really interested in this report from CBS that well known BNP and global warming conspiracy peddling organisation.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/24/taking_liberties/entry5761180.shtml
Here’s a taster:
“…Last week’s leaked e-mails range from innocuous to embarrassing and, critics believe, scandalous. They show that some of the field’s most prominent scientists were so wedded to theories of man-made global warming that they ridiculed dissenters who asked for copies of their data (”have to respond to more crap criticisms from the idiots”), cheered the deaths of skeptical journalists, and plotted how to keep researchers who reached different conclusions from publishing in peer-reviewed journals…”
Penrose is a fantastically innovative thinker - though since the 1980s he has focussed much more on writing and public outreach.
The Penrose-Hameroff ORCH-OR quantum consciousness hypothesis seems to have huge problems though - with the physics, mathematics and biology. The Wikipedia article is a useful starting point.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orch-OR
Penrose’s “Road to Reality” book is highly recommended, but will be tough going unless you have at least some undergraduate numerate study under your belt.
For some more digestible popular science books, I liked reading Richard Dawkins for biology, Steven Pinker on linguistics, Richard Feynman/Brian Greene for physics, and Marcus du Sautoy/Ian Stewart for mathematics. All fascinating.
362 wibbler. Great list. I particularly like Pinker. You missed out Ornstein (Society of Minds) and my absolute favorite writer on this matters, Daniel Dennett (Darwin’s Dangerous Idea)
PS Avoid Stephen Hawking’s books like the plague.
Given Tim’s enormous number of posts just on this thread, I feel deeply sorry for the poor unfed and un-nutured sheep on farmy farm.
Looking at the figures in The Times House of Commons for 1979 and 1987 it seems the trend goes back much further than 92.
The Golden Rule holds up for 1987 very well. With one exception, the last 7 polls of that campaign showed Labour on 34-35 and a Conservatives lead of around 7-9%. The exception was a MORI poll which showed 44-32. The result on election day was 43-32.
In 1979 all the final polls of the campaign over stated Labpur’s share with the worst figures for Labour being more than 1.5% higher than the vote they actually polled (just under 37%)and the best being 4% higher than the figure Labour polled.
362
I would add the late great Stephen Jay Gould to that list for anyone interested in Geology, Evolutionary theory and the History of Science in general. A brilliant writer who made it his lifes work to make those disciplines accessible to everyone but without dumbing down.
And for a good starting point for all sciences I would recommend ‘The Canon - The Beautiful Basics of Science’ by Natalie Angier
365 its always the same, bad poll for Labour = increasing posting intensity. Its orders from the bunker.
Night All - off to read more fun AWG justifications…
* need to get out more
*
362/367 And for a science journalist’s contributions to the understanding of the sciences, James Gleick
Another tip - when it comes to pop science magazines, New Scientist is utter tripe. Scientific American is better, but not much.
The best popular science magazine I’ve found, is American Scientist - brilliant quality of articles. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem very well known in the UK. Here’s one I liked reading in the latest issue
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/id.7860,y.2009,no.6,content.true,page.1,css.print/issue.aspx
Battlin’ Bob, doing his best for transatlantic relations.
Bob Ainsworth criticises Barack Obama over Afghanistan
Bob Ainsworth, the defence secretary, has blamed Barack Obama and the United States for the decline in British public support for the war in Afghanistan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/defence/6646179/Bob-Ainsworth-criticises-Barack-Obama-over-Afghanistan.html
372 - I actually agree with Bob Ainsworth’s analysis there to an extent.
Hilarious post from ClimateAudit
“Phil Jones – ‘I did not have statistical relations with that data’”
http://camirror.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/denying-email-deletion/#comment-954
I used to enjoy reading Scientific American, back in the 70s. The build it yourself laser in one edition was very interesting…
373. “I actually agree with Bob Ainsworth”
Same. BA4PM?
Labour must check this bandwagon before the wrong Miliband takes over
Ed is passionate, funny and honest; David remote and self-satisfied. The party risks repeating its error with Gordon Brown
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/24/bandwagon-wrong-miliband-ed-david
376 - Yes, on the principle no one can be as bad as Gordon Brown.
376, 378 The Ainsworth-Eagles Dream Ticket edges ever nearer…
Election coming up perhaps???
Brown backs Zimbabwe’s return to the Commonwealth fold http://bit.ly/5eqhG1
Perhaps he needs a few tips
376. BA4PM?
Yes, and the increasingly irrelevant and beleaguered Cameron replaced by Chris Grayling. Then we would truly have a battle of the Titans.
Liverpool out of the Champions League…
379 - Hopefully that’s the first and only time I’m spoken in the same breath as Bob Ainsworth.
I have to agree on Chris Grayling.
I saw him twice at fringe evnts in Manchester and a bigger dullard you have never laid your eyes on.
Not cabinet material in my view
382 - Mickey Mouse tournament.
375 bono publico
Yes, Scientific American used to be very good… it’s still OK. but they’ve been declining for a long time, and have fired a lot of good writers for budget reasons. Also, there are more scientists doing their own outreach and public understanding work than ever before - not to mention myriad niche blogs doing a much better job.
Universities seem desperate to hype every scientific paper into a press release - because more press leads to more funding. Unfortunately, this has led to a lot of spin infecting public scientific discourse - not necessarily by scientists themselves, but certainly by PR people affiliated with them.
Ainsworth-Eagle v Grayling-Dorries
Now that really would fire up the Indifference Engine…
383. The question you should be asking is why you’re on the bottom half of the ticket.
388 - It’s the Michael Dukasis/Lloyd Bentsen situation all over again.
385 Absolutely. The only footy trophies worth winning have “Vans” or “Paint” in the title…
Whoo hoo 42 points from 17 games. MOT.
Ahem.
On topic. Wouldn’t everyone like to be a columnist? You can write any old sh1te and get paid for it.
384 - Grayling in to 14/1 with Victor Chandler on the next Tory leader market
Swim against the tide with Grayling.
373, 376
I think Ainsworth probably fell over and bumped his head before he went on Air, that’s why he is speaking out of his mouth rather than his bottom, as usual !
As for speaking out against Obama it will probably leave Obama shaking with fear following this attack from old “caterpillar lip man” (NOT)
392 - The next Tory leader will be Chloe Smith, mark my words.
394 - I doubt it.
393 - America’s most loyal allys’ Defence Secretary criticises America will generate headlines in America.
394 - Chloe Smith vs David Miliband.
Joint Campaign song, Man in the Mirror
395 - Every time i’ve seen her, i’ve been impressed,she even managed to grab my attention in the HoC last week when talking about Norwich roads.
394 - How long will she hold on in her seat?
393. “I think Ainsworth probably fell over and bumped his head before he went on Air, that’s why he is speaking out of his mouth rather than his bottom, as usual !”
It’s not the first time. Ainsworth also made the point about achieving objectives in Afghanistan not working to a time table, which on the face of it seems to be at odds with Brown’s plan.
If he’s doing his job and putting country, and in particular our military, before the needs of his party then good for him.
399 - For a very long time.
The full data-set for the PB Angus Reid poll is now available.
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/table_uk_1123.pdf
394 TSE
The next Tory leader will be Chloe Smith, mark my words.
Anything in particular that attracts to this politician?
392 tim - That’s not swimming against the tide, that’s trying to go up Niagara Falls in a barrel.
Anyway the Labour Leader market is much more fun, easy to trade as the reputations ebb and flow, and will pay out in a few months rather than a decade or so. The various markets differ considerably, so you can cover most of the runners at a near-guaranteed profit.
Currently you can get a free bet on David Miliband by selling on SPIN at 4.5 (equivalent to a Lay at decimal 5.55), and betting on him at 6.5 on Bet365. (This is not totally risk free, if the markets are settled on a different basis, but it should be pretty safe). Previously I’ve had other, even better, free bets on other runners.
Personally I think Jenni Russell’s article which Scott P links to at 377 is dead right both in suggesting DM should be the clear favourite, and in suggesting that he’s not a good choice and that even Ed Miliband would be better.
The next but one Labour leader will be Willie Bain, mark my words.
He struts with a swagger that puts Balls to shame.
403 - She seems very level headed, and when she speaks, she’s sounding very authorative on whatever subject she talks about.
373 - to an extent he is right. The problem is that the other reason why support has gone down - according to Bob - is because Tories ask awkward questions about helicopters, and because people don’t recognise all that the government is doing to provide troops with kit so poor they have to buy their own.
392.Tim
Grayling ?
Give my regards to Alice and the mad hatter !
If you weren’t such an idiot and peope didn’t feel sorry for you, we could have a laugh at some of your remarks!
However you are now well past the stage, where anything you post can be taken with any seriousness.
The Only thing that’s consistant about you Tim is your NASTINESS! And what a nasty person you are!
392. tim November 24th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
“Swim against the tide with Grayling.”
I’ve come to the conclusion you are spot on about that man.
The are-you-married thing really is the worst idea to come from a British politician this year. Sure, the Tories are likely to lose the anti-nanny-state franchise sooner rather than later, but there’s no need to do it before the election.
I know I shouldn’t criticise Bob Ainsworth for his lack of aspiration, but his speechwriters must avoid teasing him with words like ‘iatus.
Listening is enough to make a grown man weep.
402 ANgus Reid Midlands numbers: Con 43% Lab 17% LD 14%
That is a massacre.
Also Tories doing better with women…
Bob just needs a new wigman and then i think he will be perfectly acceptable to all.
How about a Mullet?
412 - Mullet? Never. I’m a strong advocate of Sharia Law for all those have Mullets
400, 407
The point is the guy is considered a numpty “he’s got previous” and knowone listens to him, he’d probably get the blame if a cat got run over !
Agree with 186 - would be interesting to see a post by YS and Tabman on the Lib Dem issue.
Ok perhaps Bob should get a bob.
The correct figures from Table 10 are 45 - 18 - 19
417 re post 411
Rough figures for AR less Scotland
CON 41, LAB 21, LIB 22
I’m tempted to go back through polls over the past few months and take out the Scottish sample where possible. Anyone already done that?
417 - Lib Dems leading Labour in the Midlands? Crikey.
re 277 the 1 other was a Solidarity or Socialist seat.
414 - I think “Knowone” should be added to the pb lexicon along with Menthane
414 Wayne, could i ask where you were educated and in particular learnt to spell? Know offence intended - I’d just like to no.
I feel sorry for Ainsworth. He is a man out of his depth and he knows it. However, I think that he is doing his best, but tragically his best is not good enough.
I suspect that he will leave the job a very scarred man because he does have sympathy for the troops that are being let down and that will weigh heavily on him for the rest of his life.
424 - In many ways Ainsworth is a victim of Gordon’s pathetic weakness.
Why isnt the Army, particularly Royal Engineers, in Cumbria providing assistance, building sandbanks and bridges?
Is it because Gordon Brown doesnt like the Army and doesnt want them taking his spotlight.
Afterall, Gordon brown has allocated 1 million pounds to help.
1 million pounds.
2 pounds per person in the region.
1 pound more than the knock down, discount price of 999,999 pounds.
that is 1 per cent the 100Million that Gordon paid for his slot on American Idol
423
Old but worth seeing again
I have a spelling checker.
It came with my pea sea.
It plane lee marks four my revue
Miss steaks aye can knot sea.
Eye ran this poem threw it,
Your sure reel glad two no.
Its vary polished in it’s weigh.
My checker tolled me sew.
A checker is a bless sing,
It freeze yew lodes of thyme.
It helps me right awl stiles two reed,
And aides me when I rime.
Each frays come posed up on my screen
eye trussed too bee a joule.
The checker pours o’er every word
To cheque sum spelling rule.
Bee fore a veiling checker’s Hour
spelling mite decline,
And if we’re lacks oar have a laps,
We wood bee maid too wine.
Butt now bee cause my spelling
Is checked with such grate flair,
Their are no fault’s with in my cite,
Of nun eye am a ware.
Now spelling does knot phase me,
It does knot bring a tier.
My pay purrs awl due glad den
With wrapped word’s fare as hear.
To rite with care is quite a feet
Of witch won should be proud,
And wee mussed dew the best wee can,
Sew flaw’s are knot aloud.
Sow ewe can sea why aye dew prays,
Such soft wear four pea seas,
And why eye brake in two averse
Buy righting too pleas.
– Sauce Unknown
426.
Surely borrowed rather than allocated.
Nick Clegg can’t believe his luck, I’m sure
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/39You-should-have-slept-with.5850818.jp
With the exception of MORI all polls are now painting an utterly appalling picture for Labour in the Midlands. In this region Labour really are at complete meltdown levels.
PM is a sexual record-breaker, says prostitute
http://tinyurl.com/NurseMindBleach
I see Ainsworth is slagging off the US for not doing enough.
Ainsworth. You know Ainsworth, of the Labour Party.
The Labour Party that closed our military hospital in wartime and sent our forces out on Easyjet with 5 bullets each, no helicopters and no body armour.
Pathetic.
426 ken wasabi
Aargh. Make it stop!
That video rivals the infamous “Youtube if you want to” expenses one.
Pretty funny. The government feeling the heat over Iraqistan go into standard smear mode - stories appear about prisoner abuse etc, but i never imagined they’d go for the Obamassiah.
Never mind all this politics talk, my head is still reeling from the double-slit experiment discussion earlier.
God I’m having a shockingly bad week but at least there is Thursday to look forward to.
417 Mark - but “leaners” can never be arsed to vote in the Midlands…
Either set of numbers - Labour bloodbath.
423
I’m posting from my mobile, don’t be so sarcastic !
Look at your own post “i” should be a capital I, weren’t you taught that at school…. What a snob you are!
If you are going to attack someone, remember to get your own house in order first!
FIGHT. FIGHT. FIGHT.
426. Oh, I suspect Gordon would have been quite happy to share the stage with REME, “ordering” them to build a bridge, while posing in a Heseltinesque flak-jacket. Our troops are over-stretched as it is though. I think we civilians had better deal with this flood.
Agree with you about the £1m though. Why did he mention such a trifling amount?
432 Ah, no bullets - but they had a set of skis.
Well, until their RyanAir flight lost them…
409 - Wayne.
Don’t underestimate Grayling.
Read his books and see him in a fresh light.
My favourite, and the most inspiring is Insight Guide Waterways of Europe
NEW THREAD
441 - Did they land in Uzbekistan and have to catch a bus the rest of the way?
433 Hey! we paid 100Million smackeroonies for Gordon’s Gurning Grin spot on US Pop Idol.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ld1KHAz41JE
You paid for it. You own it. Enjoy!
100Million Gazonnies!
Enough to buy a squadron of Chinooks.
Or enough to pay compensation for 200 ladies bruised ankles.
Wayne, what’s your excuse for this lot then?
http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=site:politicalbetting.com+“Wayne”+knowone&btnG=Google+Search&meta=&aq=f&oq=
438. Very good point. I no exactly what you mean.
We won’t have taken Bailey bridges to ’stan. There are probably five miles of the bloody things, sat rusting in a store in Tewksbury or Dewsbury or Bury St. Edmunds. I want the tabloids to show photos of these - and ask “Why the hell are these not on their way to Cumbria?”
Or at PMQ’s. Just after Gordon has stood up and claimed to have single-handedly saved Scaffell Pike from washing into the sea.
262, 310, 317, 332
I’m not in the habit of praising Gordon Brown but both he and David Cameron did the right thing by coming to Cumbria.
Neither were here for a photo op, both saw for themselves what had happened and what was being done about it, and quite right too.
The damage in Cockermouth and Workington is enormous and is indeed going to take until well past the next election to fix. It is sensible for the present PM and for someone who may well be PM inside the timeframe required to deal with it to get an idea of the seriousness of the problem.
Politicians get a huge amount of stick for getting things wrong, but turning up when there is a tragedy or natural disaster should not be seen as one of those times.
448
Cumbria County council’s engineers have recommended that military bridges are not suitable as temporary replacements for the bridges concerned. They are currently looking at other options.
2-5 for No Labour lead before the election?
Surely that’s just printing money? 40% return? On that? It’s a giveaway!