Do these numbers smash the Number 10 fantasy?
November 18th, 2009
“Government’s always recover” - eh?
There is a notion which seems to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many pundits and Labour figures that there is some immutable law of polling that says that Governments always recover by election day. This is summed up by the following from Martin Bright in the Spectator tomorrow:-
He notes that in Downing Street “…a rather desperate numbers game is being played. It starts with an assumption that the Labour vote has stabilised at around 28 per cent. This is rounded up to 30 per cent, and is forecast to sneak up to 32 at the turn of the year — because the race tends to narrow as polling day approaches. Then, with the coming of spring, the flimsiness of the Cameron project will finally become clear to the British people. The legendary Brown street-fighting election machine will swing into action. With one last push, and if the weather is good on election day, Labour hits 35 per cent of the vote and a hung parliament is in the bag.”
It might be that the race will narrow as polling day approaches but it certainly has not happened with the two general elections that the Labour government has fought.
Reproduced above are details of all the published polls in the final seven weeks of 2000 and 2004 and a comparison with the general election results that followed. With the former all the surveys had double digit Labour leads - when the ballots were counted that was down to a single digit.
In the 2004/2005 period the polls at this stage were getting it slightly better - but there is precious little evidence to support the governments always recovery notion.
Now it might be that this is indeed what happens. But to claim or believe that is what always happens is bunkum.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
second?
1 Plato, do you have some sort of thread alerter?
More on soldiers death,
Afghanistan Death: Capt ‘Was Under-Equipped’
It found members of Capt Philippson’s patrol were “under-equipped to carry out offensive operations … and to adequately protect themselves”.
It revealed there were too few night vision scopes - only one for every five soldiers - and radios were unable to contact either their base or neighbouring troops.
A manpower shortage meant the rescue mission was assembled from “anyone available”, some of whom had not had the proper training, it added.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Report-Concludes-First-British-Casualty-In-Afghanistan-Left-Vulnerable-By-Lack-Of-Equipment/Article/200911315456866?lpos=UK_News_Carousel_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15456866_Report_Concludes_First_British_Casualty_In_Afghanistan_Left_Vulnerable_By_Lack_Of_Equipment
re 3. Plato subscribes to “PB Premium” which for only £50 a month gives her a head start
fpt
575. BTW, PtP, you are right, however, that I should officially record my (infrequent if successful) wagers. I shall do in future.
Not least cause I am sure I had a bet with Jack W once, a bet I think I won, but I can’t remember what it was, so I can’t call him up on it. Gah.
Then again I forgot what age I was today. lol. I actually couldn’t remember how old I was. Clearly, I am middle aged, if this mental decay is happening, but the precise extent of my middle agedness eluded me.
I guess that’s ironic, or God’s little joke, or something.
Swing back - sweet chariot - coming for to take Brown home….
3. Dyed - just keep your eyes peeled at the top of the article, obviously the more often you refresh the more likely you are to see any new thread title appear!
Finally seen the clip where Cameron challenges Brown on expenses, and err, Brown ignores him and keeps chatting to Harman.
7. That made me laugh.
No idea what No 10 is thinking of. The proposals for changing Attendance Allowance - likely to be rushed through rather than thought through - look more like poisoning the well for the future.
Rod
LiddleCrosby won’t be best pleased!5 It’s OK Mike, I restrict myself to coming late and explosively.
It’s comforting to know Plato has been in to fluff the cushions and set things straight.
FPT. “You welched. Exeunt.”
Amusingly predictable how Sean’s retorts get shorter and shorter to the point of being almost invisible to the naked eye when the penny finally drops that he hasn’t got a leg to stand on. Well, given his status as a Thatcher groupie of such devotion that it would shame a Bros fan, here’s a tribute retort he should appreciate.
You ducked the bet. You’re frit. Exeunt.
11 - Why do you say rushed through? They have been out to consultation for some time with no final decision made yet.
10. You are easily pleased
Charles Clarke: Today’s speech makes it harder for Labour to win GE.
6 Well, Jack didn’t record it with me, SeanT.
Next time he’s on, I’ll remind him and tell him that he owes you fifty quid. He can then send it to me and I’ll see it is forwarded to you.
OK?
15 Neil. Is that so? I stand corrected. I’m surprised I haven’t heard anything of the consultations though.
Tim B/TimT FPT- 571- I have no doubt that the Dems are capable of producing the proverbial mouse and calling it a lion, fully believing that people will be convinced. I also think they are still clinging to the notion that they have a rich reward awaiting them once they pass something, even if it bares little resemblance to their campaign promises. I think they will be disappointed.
And on the issue mentioned by TimT on how the Dems have rejected “bipartisanship,” well, that was always a throwaway line going back to the beginning of the Obama campaign, never uttered with any purpose beyond grabbing a larger slice of the electoral center. However, it would have benefited the Dems post-election to at least TRY to look like they were sincere in their desire for bipartisanship since the effort could have kept independents on their side, at least for a while.
So far, I can say that there were three things I really feared from an Obama presidency:
1) he really would try to govern from the center and in a bipartisan manner, which would have left the GOP in a very precarious position;
2) (related to 1) the GOP would have been split as Obama siphoned off dozens of centrist Republican votes to support his proposals, creating a real civil war within the party and leaving it divided; and
3) the Dems would take a real lesson from the 2009 election setbacks and recalibrate their attitudes and their approach.
So far, the GOP has dodged all three of these bullets. As a result, 2010 is already looking more promising than I had expected.
If only this thread kills off Rod Crosby’s nonsense about Govt’s always recovering in the polls.
That would be a great early xmas present for pb.com.
No 10’s theory sounds like an acute case of ’straw clutching’ to me
FPT 577 Kristin
The Coroner concluded:
“To send soldiers into a combat zone without basic equipment is unforgivable, inexcusable and a breach of trust between the soldiers and those who govern them.”
This is damning enough, but the calls for Ainsworth’s resignation will based on his attempt, when Armed Forces Minister, to blame decisions by field officers for Captain Jim Philippson’s death.
The new report, which exonerates the field command and concludes that
Not impressed here Mike. Comparisons need to be drawn with Major 1992 rather than an administration that was always going to be re-elected.
I’ll throw in Thatcher 1987 because she did have a wobbly Wednesday.
Callaghan losing in 1979 could also be interesting as could Wilson losing in 1970.
20. “As a result, 2010 is already looking more promising than I had expected.”
Good grief. That’s pretty promising…
21 - In fairness to Rod Crosby, his version of swingback is based not on opinion polls but on by-election results.
21 Titanictown will be on shortly to “disprove” this.
http://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/5832000408
19 - There was a green paper on this earlier in the year (July, I think). A major consultation exercise. It was majored on during the party conference season. I’m surprised you managed to miss it.
FPT 577 Kristin [Complete copy]
The Coroner concluded:
“To send soldiers into a combat zone without basic equipment is unforgivable, inexcusable and a breach of trust between the soldiers and those who govern them.”
This is damning enough, but the calls for Ainsworth’s resignation will based on his attempt, when Armed Forces Minister, to blame decisions by field officers for Captain Jim Philippson’s death.
The new report, which exonerates the field command and concludes that equipment resourcing was responsible, is published tomorrow. Watch this space.
I don’t get it…Labour in 2001 and 2005 were always going to win…surely a better comparison would be 1992?
FPT 524 - There is substantial middle ground on the health care reform issue. The Republicans in the Senate wrote to Obama when the process started offering bi-partisan support for reform of the existing health care system, including the abolition of pre-existing conditions, caps on premium loading, making a single market etc etc and Obmama’s response was basically “Thanks, but no thanks.”.
The democrats and Obama have been every bit as divisive as Bush junior was.
Pelosi was asked point blank on TV the other week whether she felt it was ‘fair’ to jail someone because he or she felt it was in their own best interest to forgo paying $350-$500 a month for insurance they didn’t want or need. She eventually said she thought it was ‘fair, in this case’.
If that is not ‘extreme’, I don’t know what is
If Nick Clegg is actually refusing media interviews (though I have doubts about the trustworthiness of Kevin Maguire) then he is really failing his party.
Surely the Major Govt 1992 are the more relevant figures.
“The Guardian article about Compass agitation is a fabrication - talking of leadership changes now only aids the Tories”
http://www.labourlist.org/guardian-article-compass-brown-agitiation-ben-folley?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LabourListLatestPosts+%28The+Labour+List%3A+Latest+Posts%29
‘Calman Commission plans unveiled soon, says Jim Murphy’
- Plans to transfer a swathe of new tax-raising powers to Scottish ministers are to be unveiled within the next fortnight, the Government has confirmed
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/6598931/Calman-Commission-plans-unveiled-soon-says-Jim-Murphy.html
The BBC news website isn’t reporting the report on the soldier’s death, as far as I can tell.
28 hahahaha Zsa Zsa Clegg wants to be alone, darling
On the “IHT hit” supposedly scored by Brown, which Tim so relished, Brown was as ever 180 degrees wrong. Cameron and Osborne are likely to know the only people still affected by Dead Millionaires Tax…
26 - Yes. And based on all the by-elections in this Parliament, he is predicting a swing of between 1.5% and 3.5% to the Conservatives. It is on this he should be judged rather than on a hung Parliament per se that could still result from a rather larger swing.
re 24. For the 92 - 97 government there’s a pile of data here.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/
Vientiane is so boring, James, I will give you your bet.
But this time, if you lose, you HAVE to pay up, rather than make some sad little sixth form joke with Sudanese schillings or Laotian Kip (current rate, 15,000 to the £1. It’s very confusing).
I will offer you £20 at evens that the Tories will have an OVERALL parliamentary majority at the next GE.
Agreed?
36.
Winning bye elections, Calmac reports, devolved powers, the popes visit - Murphy is first minister in all but name these days - Salmond is the commisar for referenda.
9 But it was such an idiotic mistake to make. Cameron even gave him a second bite at the cherry,but still Brown refused to commit. A terrible own-goal,and proves the Tory attack that this Queen’s speech was all about partisanship.
32. “Pelosi was asked point blank on TV the other week whether she felt it was ‘fair’ to jail someone because he or she felt it was in their own best interest to forgo paying $350-$500 a month for insurance they didn’t want or need. She eventually said she thought it was ‘fair, in this case’.
If that is not ‘extreme’, I don’t know what is.”
Tim, do you think it’s “extreme” to suggest that people can be prosecuted for not paying compulsory National Insurance contributions in this country? Surely that’s a very close equivalent?
You’re havin’ a laugh,OGH. I am talking about 1987-1992 like at least two other posters.
Mike, I’ve told you umpteen times before.
Only unpopular governments always recover…
“The race tends to narrow as polling day approaches…”
But we are in uncharted territory here. Just as the Large Hadron Collider will test conditions never before examined by physicists, the 2010 election will test a completely new field of psephology: what happens to Labour’s vote share as we approach a General Election under Gordon Brown.
A thread devoted to RodCrosby’s pet subject! Now we’re in for it!
*Plato takes a bow for being observant - and lucky
*
37 - Its a leak of a report that Sky have isn’t it?
39 - You want to know whether it was a hit, then look at Dave.
Or as Barry Davies said.
“Look at his face, just look at his face”
18. Chillax. Seeing as I can’t even remember what the bet was, or why we made it, or how much for, or what were the terms, or whether I actually won (maybe it’s my ego talking) or whether we even had a bet anyway, it’d probably be a bit previous to ask the venerable Jack W to cough.
51 tim
Once Sky have a story, it is unacceptable for the BBC not to have it 30 minutes later.
20 - Yes the way the liberal wing of the Democrats are acting reminds me a bit of Labour - they know deep in their hearts that what they are doing is ‘fair’ and ‘just’, and if only they could get their message through then people would understand what they’re doing and why, then they’d definitely support it, because it is the Right Thing To Do..
Looking at the Dems situation, the activist crusade was ‘elect Obama’, not ‘have a legislative program for 4 years’. Now the crusade is over, and the dust has settled, the activists have moved on, and looking at the way the polls are going, the dems are in trouble already. Majorities in both houses and after 5 months they can’t agree on and pass a health care bill.
42. “I will offer you £20 at evens that the Tories will have an OVERALL parliamentary majority at the next GE.
Agreed?”
OK, even though I’m not a best-selling slap-and-tickle chronicler I can probably just about stretch to £20. And there really was no need for the little lecture, I’ve already specified on the previous which currency I’d be paying in - I trust you can do the same.
31 et al, in the run up to 1992, Labour and Conservatives were basically level-pegging, rather than one party running a long way behind the other.
52 It would also be absurdly optimistic. I understand the Old Jacobite has exceeding deep pockets, and mighty short arms.
Polls for 1992 are also at:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1987-1992
What’s striking is the sudden closing of the gap post Maggie’s demise. There was also a closing without Maggie going, though not as dramatic. I don’t believe that government’s always recover.
The 92-97 run shows a flatline for the Tories from the moment of White Wednesday.
For a recovery for elections 83 was boosted by Labour’s utter shambles, the Falklands effect and so on.
http://twitter.com/lucymanning/status/5832301507
55 - As previously commented, only an idiot would accept that bet. People, we have ourselves an idiot.
tim, please put me out of my misery by explaining why the LABOUR conession on IHT in 2007 was the correct and principled thing to do, and why the thirty chinooks’ worth of money it gave away to the prosperous bourgeoisie woud not have been better spent on thirty chinooks. I am beginning to detect a whiff of big girl’s blousery on this issue.
Oh and why are the betting markets more accurate than opininon polls?
when will we get the MORI poll?
47 RodCrosby
How can popular governments “recover”?
Isn’t polling share the measure of popularity?
I’m missing the logic.
47 Unpopular governments are bound to recover from their very worst point during the course of a Parliament. That doesn’t mean that the polling gap steadily narrows until polling day.
It looks as though Labour have recovered from their very worst poll ratings, but I see no evidence that there will be any further improvement for them.
Mike Smithson said: “Plato subscribes to “PB Premium” which for only £50 a month gives her a head start “
Why not take the next logical step and sell a special “PB Gold” for £100 per week were for five days you will post the new thread with the first entry pre-filled and reading “First” under the username of the payee.
Round here you could probably let them bid for the privilege whilst the less interested bet on the winner.
You could have a REAL money spinner.
You could even let people pay to delete Gabble and Tim’s posts. That’s got to be worth a tenner a week to someone.
62. Can it be linked to something which opens without having to sign up to google spreadsheets?
55. Sir, you have an honourable wager. Let us draw a line under our rancour, and proceed to the sunlit uplands of gentlemanly disport.
And let this bet be recorded in Ye Great Almanacke of Offycial PB Wagers.
Be warned, I am going into one of the more dangerous places in Asia, tomorrow, so I may be dead by Friday, in which case all bets are, understandably, I think, off.
re 46. There is no polling in the 1987 - 1992 period in which anybody can have any confidence. We all remember the polling disaster of Major’s election.
That was the spark for change.
In those days we had a systemic bias in all polling to Labour - so it was inevitable that the Tories would recover.
Now our polling is a lot better.
Harriet on R5L reciting the “they told us it can’t be done” line… I see the Lines to Take branch are still working.
6/18. SeanT/PtP. Nice try !!
Sean F @ 56
Major also had the advantage of having scrapped the Poll Tax.
That got me to vote Tory having backed Lab/LD at the previous two elections.
RodCrosby - still can’t access your results page - says I don’t have permission.
60. Believe what you like, Neil. I certainly don’t think I’m guaranteed to win (and I’ve already said an evens bet is exceptionally generous on my part) but I’m a hell of a lot more optimistic than I was the last time. Certainly not a charity donation on my part on this occasion.
RodCrosby = Prophet
Swingback Theory = Sound
Chancellor Gideon = HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
PS. A hung parliament is coming, COMING at the next election!!!!
And now I need my pills. Where is Martin, by the way? Haven’t seen him for a while.
After twelve years of research we can announce
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Forget expenses! Forget the deficit! Forget the magnificent debt -the Tories couldn’t have done that, you know - this is what you need to solve all your problems:
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A free unused referendum souvenir ballot paper with every purchase!
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See our men in white coats working in their
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We know you know Gordon - You will trust him. Even if we have to make you.
Seth O Logue. I really like you and I really don’t like Rod Crobsy.
However, cut him some slack on issues psephological. He has put a lot of thought into it and for example his comment at 47 is bang on the money.
It is OGH (for once) who is way off the piste.
60. No, my previous bet, at evens, was that the Tories would merely form the next government. As you say, only an idiot, or a flatulent pb lefty who actually believed his own drivel (clearly not you), would take that bet.
James is taking a much more credible bet: that the Tories will not achieve an overall majority. Still a rather bold wager, from his position, but that’s the Braveheart Scots for you.
Loving the word “bunkum” Mike;). On topic, I think the polls will narrow slightly but come election day the Lib Dems will be squeezed, as the Tories actually have a very decent chance of winning this time. The Lib Dems won’t get wiped out but it’s clear that they will be doing well to return 40 MPs in 2010.
57 PtP. But a mighty long reach !!
Most pointless story ever?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1228984/MoD-defends-staff-spending-140-days-Top-Gear-stunts.html
74 - The reason it is an idiotic bet is because it is available much cheaper from far more reputable sources elsewhere. Still, Sean needs his willing idiots to keep his betting record going.
CORRECTION:
In 2005 the Lib Dems did not get 22.7 but 23.68 (see Anthony Well’s swingometer on his polling report website).
Important to note that from the previous November before the GE the Lib Dems improved by around 2.5, mainly at the cost of Labour. This is probably due to better coverage in the run up to the GE.
At present the Lib Dems are averaging about 18 and Lab 26/27. The end result will probably be at worst for the Lib Dems 20 and for Labour at best 25. The polls following the Lib Dems conference suggest the possibility that the Lib Dems could even push Labour into third place. Admittedly this does not currently seem probable but it may be worth a small bet.
45 Tim, do you think it’s “extreme” to suggest that people can be prosecuted for not paying compulsory National Insurance contributions in this country? Surely that’s a very close equivalent?
National Insurance is effectively income tax, except that is levied on your employer as well as you. Everyone is liable for taxes.
Health insurance is like any other product - you look at what’s on offer, decide if you want to buy any or not, and if so which one. Think of it as BUPA
For most people it’s an employment benefit, and premiums paid by your employer for the individual - in my family’s case, full medical & dental coverage for all 3 of us costs $50 a month.
Tax is a legal requirement, choosing which if any insurance to buy is an individual and voluntary choice.
77 - No, your bet was still an idiotic proposition as finally framed.
Mike
You’ve provided further evidence, in your thread and in your link, that GE results tend to be narrower than predicted in the polls.
The sort of swing-backs you have identified above, would probably result in a hung parliament this time round.
68 Astonishing, SeanT - you just backed a 2/5 shot at even money!
If you could do that regularly, you’d have no need to pen another word, but could live in the lap of luxury for the duration.
Address for recording this lopsided bet is: arklebar@talktalk.net
Lord Sugar reduces struggling businesswoman to tears… by telling her to get off benefits and work harder
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1228950/Alan-Sugar-reduces-struggling-businesswoman-tears-sparking-calls-resignation.html#ixzz0XEdswmSt
Completely on a different topic I’ve just upgraded from Windows Vista to Windows 7 - and its like getting a super-charged new computer.
It’s also so much nicer to use and makes you realise how crap Vista was.
Labour’s can’t be bothered MPs get demob happy and go for a skive for the Queen’s speech, look at screen shot.
http://tinyurl.com/yeavwd7
Jonathan Isaby “A Conservative MP calls to tell me that one of his astounded colleagues counted the number of Labour MPs present as just 127 out of 350.”
69 - Indeed looking at YouGov they were pretty much spot-on with the Euros.
43. TGOHF - “… Calmac reports…”
Huh?
Caledonian MacBrayne is a company owned by the Scottish Government. What has Jim Murphy been saying about it?
84. But do you not admire the way I coaxed him into it? And at four times his initial bet?
I do respect his cullions though, in a purely heterosexual way.
85 Gabble “The sort of swing-backs you have identified above, would probably result in a hung parliament this time round.”
O’Rly?
re 82. My figure is the GB figure of what happened in May 5th 2005.
‘How can popular governments “recover”?’ Precisely - they can’t - so 2001 & 2005 are of no application today. Labour were never credibly behind in the polls 1997-2005.
‘It looks as though Labour have recovered from their very worst poll ratings, but I see no evidence that there will be any further improvement for them.’ The trend is your friend (unless you’re a Tory)
92 - Rather a lot of work for £20. But whatever makes you happy.
92 - I’ll offer you £50 at evens that you don’t die in Asia this week.
Or haven’t you got the balls?
75 - Gordon Brown: You can buy better, but you can’t pay more.
47. RodCrosby - “Only unpopular governments always recover…”
You’ve gotta hand it to Rod: he never, ever, ever gives up. ‘Tis quite impressive actually.
I know that this is pushing the bounds of credibility a bit, but what if… just what if Rod is right?!? There’ll be a heck of a lot of PBers looking a bit sheepish in the ensuing weeks and months.
RodCrosby - “Only unpopular governments always recover… as long as I am predicting it”
PtP I have emailed you a confirmation of the bet.
I guess I should do the same with the ukpaul or stjohn bet, i.e. I offered 3/1 against my belief that Brown would still be leader at the next GE, but seeing as I can’t remember which of them had the bet with me, this must wait til they fetch up.
I hope James Kelly cries “palpable error”(if he loses). That would make my election night.
88 I had to buy a new PC and it’s got W7 on it - WOW, so much better/faster/user friendly.
Vista was crap and huge.
95. RodCrosby - “The trend is your friend (unless you’re a Tory).”
God, wouldn’t it be funny if Rod is right? I can just see The Herd having a collective nervous breakdown. I think I’d split my sides with laughter.
Unfortunately though, I just can’t see this “trend” Rod.
Is Socrates about?
Just seen this on Dale’s blog!
“Deember issue of Total Politics has just arrived from the printers. Cracking pic of Vince Cable as Socrates on the cover. He will love it! about 4 hours ago
82 - I think there is some kind of adjustment in Wells’ figures, presumably to take account of boundary changes (not sure how exactly this works). But Mike is bang on with the actual GB 2005 numbers.
103. “I hope James Kelly cries “palpable error”(if he loses).”
I’m probably being thick, URW, but…explain?
100 Stuart - Not at all. We’ll never know, on the basis of one sample, whether the probability of a hung parliament is 10% (my estimate), or, say, 50% (or whatever figure Rod would suggest).
You’d have to run the same election many times in identical parallel universes to find out who was right.
“The sort of swing-backs you have identified above, would probably result in a hung parliament this time round.”
After negative narrowing, we get negative swingbacks.
BRILLIANT
62. Rod. You need to sort the permissions out
doesn’t have permission to access this spreadsheet
88. Mike
I’m getting my Windows 7 upgrade next month. I cannot wait. I hate Vista with a vengeance.
Those tables suggest a small swing away from gov to LD.
“Dividing Lines: On Expenses”
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:0888d913-285b-46db-a2fb-a421de88e89e
103 - Like a battered wife who always returns to her abusive husband I imagine James will continue to pay his gambling debts to Sean.
76 URW
I have always had time for RodCrosby (as I am sure MikeS does too secretly). He has been a good tutor for me in the wee hours of the morning. But just as you are sometimes as teasingly opaque, so Rod is often reluctant to show his cards.
Rod’s predictions of swingback are stronger in their bold assertion and repetition than their justification. I am sure he has the answers to our questions. I am less sure he has the confidence in the answers. My mind remains open.
My post 64 is more about the illogicality of the language used rather than the psephology.
97. Rather a lot of work? Posting bollocks on pb? lol. I do it for free, or haven’t you noticed?
98. All too macabre. For the first time in my life I refused to take a flight this week (a flight that would have saved me loads of time) simply because I was worried by the record of the airline company (Lao Aviation) and specifically the plane, an adapted Chinese Y7.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xian_MA60
I’m not sure if this onset of fritness is my middle age, and a sense that the odds are beginning to stack against me - or merely the maturation of a new and justifiable sensibleness.
I have a friend the same age as me who flies all the time who says he has also suddenly developed a serious fear of flying, simply because of the stats. If you take thirty to sixty flights a year, eventually….
re 12 I thought that Rod’s theory only applied to the position from the mid point of the electoral cycle. We’re well past that now.
98 tim : one of your rare amusing posts….I was about to add your red face jibes to your buzzword-bingo list of smears etc… but in light of an amusing post I will keep it off for another day or so
115. Gosh, I’m beginning to realise it was pity all along, Neil. I’m touched.
In 2005 Labour got 36% of the vote. By any historical standard that is not a “popular” Govt.
In addition Labour have “recovered”. They have (at the moment) recovered sections of their core vote on whom they are dependent to avoid total annihilation. There is no evidence that they are recovering sections of the electorate needed to seriously contest for the election - most of their polling movements occur independently of the Tories (who only tend to dip whenever “others” have a good month).
It’s one thing to recover your core vote. Another to recover the key swing voters who seem to have pretty much made up their mind.
100 There is a fairly close precedent, Stuart.
Remember the days when Inspector Knacker was investigating Cash For Honours? For months on end, the Site was lousy with posters predicting the imminent resignation, or arrest, or both, of one Anthony Blair (aka Bliar by the wittier posters at the time.) Much money was staked on the ex PM’s departure date, much of it fuelled by speculation and rumour spread by said posters. Result?
Said posters were very little in evidence when the Inspector’s inquiry produced nothing but the dampest of squibs. Some probably have changed their posting names. Guido Fawkes, who was prominent amongst those anticipating the PM’s imminent demise, has scarcely been seen on this Site since, unless he posts under a different name now.
In short, we know that if Crosby is proved right, just about nobody will stand up and say ‘Yup, you were right and I was wrong, Rod’. Of course if Rod is wrong, you will never hear the end of it.
It’s the way of the world, Stuart.
108 James Kelly. I was being a little bit facetious.
It happens sometimes when Bookmakers lay the ‘wrong’ price to a punter, they cry “palpable error” and don’t pay up at the original odds.
You just made a total idiot of yourself taking EVEN MONEY about a 5-2 chance with a right dodge.. who bragged about it.
You are a good guy on here and the other fella is forum filth.
At the end of the day I don’t suppose £20 will change your lifestyle but it might buy him a shag.
114 Ouch
“Also missing from the Queen’s Speech was an announcement about a visit to the UK by the Pope, invited here by Gordon Brown. I’m told the PM wanted him to come in January. But the Vatican didn’t want to get dragged into pre-election rows and the visit will now take place in autumn 2010.
I also spoke to a senior MP who tells me Labour whips were struggling to find back benchers to propose and second the Queen’s Speech before the party leaders’ speeches.
“Morale is shot to pieces on the Labour side because of the expenses issue,” the MP told me. “None of them wanted to be associated with Gordon Brown.”
The task eventually fell to veteran Frank Dobson, who despite being nearly 70 will still be around after the next election, and “new girl” Emily Thornberry, who with a majority of just 484 almost certainly won’t.”
45. Tim B and I are on opposite sides of the political spectrum but we have to agree here. Health insurance in the U.S. is linked to employment. If you’re in a full-time job, you’re probably going to be provided with some form of health insurance by your employer. You will have to pay a fee, but the employer will pick up some of the tab.
People who do not have insurance tend to be either part-time workers, self-employed, or unemployed. Therefore, the onus of the requirement to buy health insurance falls squarely on the type of people who are least likely to be able to afford it.
Anyway, you can’t really compare BUPA to buying private insurance in the U.S. If I was in the UK and wanted to buy BUPA insurance, it could be anywhere from £50-110 a month, by my calculations. If I didn’t want BUPA, I could get free NHS care. If I wanted to buy private health insurance in the US, it would be at least $275 per month (I speak from experience). I’m relatively healthy and young, and don’t need to cover a spouse or kids. If you are older and you have a spouse or brat, then I don’t even know how much it would be. People who don’t have a lot of money need to eat and keep a roof over their heads, they don’t need to be compelled to buy health insurance that probably isn’t going to provide a lot of coverage anyway.
80 - the key is the last sentence…
‘Having these events appear on one of the most popular television programmes in the UK was an excellent opportunity to raise public awareness of the Armed Forces and enable greater understanding and support for our sailors, soldiers and aircrew.’
It’s great PR and publicity at a knock down price. Well done MOD (on this one anyway)
114 “Also missing from the Queen’s Speech was an announcement about a visit to the UK by the Pope, invited here by Gordon Brown. I’m told the PM wanted him to come in January. But the Vatican didn’t want to get dragged into pre-election rows and the visit will now take place in autumn 2010.”
Brown = f*cking shameless publicity whore
January also suggests an early election…
114 - The interesting paragraph being.
Before they get too smug in No. 10, however, I predict there will be a challenge to Lloyd, possibly from Parmjit Dhanda, the Gloucester MP inexplicably sacked from the Government by Gordon Brown last year and now a vocal critic from the back benches.
117 - Sean. I Don’t fly as much as you, maybe 16 flights a year, but the last few times I have definitely had a nervous twinge. I think it was after I tried to narrow down the odds of winning the lottery in my lifetime by counting how many 14m to 1 shots I was taking and then I extrapolated!
54- And to put the extent of the Democratic majorities in perspective, the GOP has not had House OR Senate majorities of this magnitude for over eighty years. The fact that the Dems are having such trouble while benefiting from such overwhelming control of Washington is something I would not have expected a year ago. If Obama had chosen a more bipartisan course from the beginning (and the ball was in Obama’s court to do this had he so desired), legislation such as healthcare reform could have sailed out of Congress with huge majorities.
But I guess one of Obama’s earliest and most succinct statements made as president sums up his chosen approach as well as anything: “I won.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/01/23/obama-to-gop-i-won/
96 PtP. Rub me !!
…. You wait to be asked cheeky !! 
PtP I had no idea that Guido was a regular here - one learns something new every day on PB
102 Thanks SeanT.
As regards the other two bets, I am happy to oblige but knowing StJohn and UKPaul as I do, you are on pretty safe ground and they are sure to pay up even if you forget about it. (I mean, it’s not like a bet with a forgetful Jacobite who wouldn’t cough if you had the wager etched in stone.
)
As for Rod’s wider assertion about “unpopular govts”.
In November 1979 Labour was ahead in some polls. I suppose he could argue on a technicality that that means that they weren’t “unpopular” in November 1979, but they certainly were by the following March!
Speaking of AWOL posters - where did Mirthios go? It’s been weeks.
117 / 129 - In a previous job I had to look over reinsurance policies for airline companies and the related accident stats. You couldnt pay me to take an internal flight in Cuba or Iran after that.
129 David, I liked the guy who calculated that the odds of being on a plane with a bomb on it was a million to one; the odds of being on a plane with two bombs was a trillion to one. So his advice when flying? “Carry a bomb…”
67/73. Try this, to look at the spreadsheet.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/
I’m still trying to get the summary page to work…
135 effing lol,Plato. That was the post of the week. You are a formidable lady despite all the spurious evidence to the contrary.
Where does the Mirthios go when it snows ?
I quite agree that there was little or no ’swing back’ to the Government prior to the 2001 and 2005 General Elections.However, I do wonder whether those periods provide the most useful guide to what might happen to Labour fortunes over the next few months - simply because on neither occasion was there any real sense of the Labour Govt being in serious trouble and facing the real prospect of defeat - notwithstanding the Iraq factor in 2005.
Perhaps a better indicator is found by looking at what happened to earlier unpopular Labour Governments!In the late 1960s Harold Wilson’s Govt was very unpopular indeed from mid 67 to early Autumn 69 when some recovery became apparent.Despite this, as late as February 1970 still saw the Tories enjoying double figure leads in the polls and Labour performed poorly in the April 1970 County Council elections.Yet when the General Election took place on June 18th the surprise was that the Tories won - even though by a margin of just over 2%. Most people had expected a comfortable Labour win based on their surge in the polls from late April onwards. Nevertheless - whilst defeated - Labour had experienced a considerable ’swing back’.
The most recent example relates to what happened before the 1979 Election.Here the position is less clearcut in that the Tories did win decisively and by the time of the campaign were generally expected to emerge as victors.It was still a much narrower defeat than would have faced Labour at any time from Autumn 76 to late Summer 77.From Autumn 77 to late 78, the Tory lead was usually very modest - often just a couple of points with the occasional Labour lead.Given that the Tory lead in May 79 was 7% , I find it unlikely that a contest in 78 - prior to the Winter of Discontent -would have yielded a Tory lead of more than 3%. Surely the events of Jan and Feb 79 must have been worth at least a 2% swing to the Tories!? If so, an overall Tory majority woud have been unlikely had Callaghan called the elction in Spring or Autumn 78. He simply missed his opportunity - but it was probably there to the extent of another Hung Parliament at the very least!
42-Vientiane..was in the Novotel. The whole Luxembourg cabinet was there at the restaurant at a long table sapping beer and vino. Claude Juncker, he of “I am not a dwarf!” fame in the middle. I popped arund to hotel nightclub at back-refreshingly all above board…Big Lao beer 10,000 lao or same in THB…next day BKK…
Laos-why socialism doesn’t work
Cambodia-why it kills
Vietnam-why it doesn’t work, in case you didn’t get it first time round
Thailand-not a socialist dictatorship. Nuff said!
135 - Mirthios did one when he lost a £50 bet with me on the ratification of Lisbon by the Polish Government.
114-So the great moral compass is too frit of his backbenchers to do the right thing?
re 117 but the odds of being killed in a single plane journey are about 50 million to 1 and will be much longer on safe, first-world airlines. As each flight is independent the odds on 50 flights a year is 1 million to 1 and you do many things which offer shorter odds on that of being killed, like driving a car.
That being said I did pass up a flight to Russia last year when the only option was Aeroflot and I do check up airline statistics before booking.
“eh?” is right - whoever is responsible for that simply dreadful apostrophe should own up!
re 129 David you win the lottery, what are the odds of you winning again the next week?
129. You’re in your 30s, right? I fear it does get worse with age… Especially if you have had an extremely risk taking youth (like me) and got away with it. SO FAR. You start to think: hm. How many more risks can I take? Before God decides I am taking the piss?
It’s an interesting illustration of that old paradox, emotional intuition versus betting logic, which I am sure some brainier people on here can explain to me.
If you flip a coin, every time you flip that coin the chances
of you getting heads are 50/50. But if you flip a coin 1000 times and you get 1000 heads in a row, the next time the odds of getting heads certainly don’t *feel* like 50/50.
Same with flying. Every time you fly, the chances of the plane crashing are negligible. But if you take 1000 flights in a lifetime, then your chances of being in some crash at some point are quite high. Yet each incremental flight has the same small odds of killing you.
It’s emotionally confusing. I’ve done nearer 1000 flights than 0. At some point, something will go wrong. But each flight is supposedly perfectly safe.
Anyway, rather than take the plane, I’m now driving ten hours into the jungle on dodgy roads past unexploded American bombs which is probably 40 times riskier than taking the Chinese turboprop.
Such is human psychology.
82 . I am sorry but Anthony Wells is wrong on this - the LibDem vote in 2005 was just short of 23%
McShane on BBC Parliament in the Queen’s Speech debate.
Any sign of Gabble?
144 - Yes but taking a decision to NEVER fly on a plane, as opposed to the alternative which could see you flying dozens to hundreds of flights in your life makes a big difference to the odds.
Maybe we ought to put on the record Rod’s prediction from October 6th.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/05/is-this-pay-back-time-for-the-suns-announcement/#comment-1249084
132 He was once, Plato, but he’s been very little in evidence since Cash For Honours did not produce the results he clearly expected and predicted.
Maybe it was just a coincidence, or maybe he just got bored, or maybe he no longer wished to post on a Site where his credibility was shot.
He was, I should add, by no means the only one to anticipate Blair demise and departure, quite possibly in cuffs, through the long period of the investigation.
I suppose I should be happy. I made a lot of money on the Blair Exit market but to be honest the ‘he’s on his way out’ crowd were a terrible bore. You don’t hear so much from them now though.
147 - Hmmm. I think if i flipped 1000 heads in a row, then i would be highly confident of another head. So i’m not totally sure your analogy works on that one!
125 - Yes, my use of BUPA as an example was possibly not the best, but there aren’t many UK examples of private insurance.
Of course there is always the NHS, a business model of health care provision not adopted by any other western nation for all the obvious reasons.
I should also make the point that in the USA, even if you have no insurance, if you turn up at the ER they are legally obliged to treat you at no cost to yourself, so called ‘indigent care’.
In addition, if you are designated as a county hospital, (which typically means you are a 501C3), you will be give funds by local government to cover the cost of looking after those without insurance.
152 - Mirthios was around long after Cash for Honours PfP. He regular contribution was to post stock market updates earlier in the year.
Mike, my view is that Governments recover when they have been behind ( or neck and neck) in the opinion polls six months earlier so I would like to see the stats for Nov 1978, Dec 1982,Nov 1986,Oct 1991 and Nov 1996 before disagreeing with you.
I think 39% to the Tories and 29% to Labour would probably produce a hung parliament (the Tories may have a little leeway with Ulster Unionisst support but how many seats would they have 4,5,or 6 ?).
I fear that if the Labour election machine is effective ( and I know don’t see any threat to GB now that we are six months away from the election and the New Parliament has opened) Labour might just scrape 30% and with the Tories in the late thirties, with Libs on 20% and the minor parties doing well (UKIP,BNP and the Greens picking votes from last time) there will be absolute pandemonium. Mr Clegg will have be having the time of his life !
154 - A better example would be dental insurance, I think.
122. PtP “In short, we know that if Crosby is proved right, just about nobody will stand up and say ‘Yup, you were right and I was wrong, Rod’. Of course if Rod is wrong, you will never hear the end of it.”
You are of course correct, but it must be remembered that those who disagree with Rod might well have significant positions aligned with their alternative view. It is not unreasonable to suppose that those in mourning at their cumulative losses might not be terribly inclined to congratulate others less unfortunate…
PtP - I’ll have a surf of threads back then - thanks for the info.
142 tim. You seem proud of it.Instead you should hang your head in shame.
Just remember my motto regarding promiscuous betting “You have to win twice.”
You have at least one other very dodgy bet in the pipeline where you took ‘good’ odds.
I choose my opponents with great care and there are fewer than ten I would bet decent money with.
Peter the Punter and antifrank are two !
156. Apologies for the crap grammar.Should have checked.
I once read, I think in a Martin Amis novel, that the oft-expressed truism that it is safer to fly, than to drive a car, is a bit of a canard.
Flying is safer in terms of journeys completed. But in terms of deaths per mile, flying is about as dangerous as motorbike riding. Or so Amis claimed.
I am happy to have this assertion demolished by the pb brains trust. It isn’t mine.
I would like to extend a vote of thanks to The PB Herd, and to the Decent Guys here at PB. You have taught me a lesson.
Over the last few years (since at least 2002) I had been on a journey away from from social democratic/liberal roots. I had been slowly, but surely, getting lured by the siren voices of “libertarianism”, and then even conservatism.
But I have had serious pause for thought these last few months. I still remain attracted to basic free market principles, but I have started to appreciate (again) the basic unpleasantness of far too many people on the right (eg. The PB Herd).
I don’t know where my own personal political journey is headed, but I have definitely turned a corner. I feel myself being replused by the right (eg. The PB Herd), and attracted by my liberal background once again (eg. sometimes glimpsed among the PB Decent Guys).
All a bit rambling, and largely meaningless to those who have not read many of my comments since I began getting into blogging in 2004, but I just thought I’d share my ponderings with you.
Only one thing remains constant in my orientation to public life: my conviction that the Scottish people will be better off governing themselves.
Slàinte Mhath!
REALITY CHECK!
What some of the Soppy deluded socialist and parts of the media have forgot to factor in as we approach the next election is the prospect of and the election slogan
“Gordon Brown 5 more years?”
the man looks half dead now, what’s he going to look like in 2 more years? Or are labour thinking of forcing another unellected leader on us if the C4nts got back in ?
129-Used to fly about 100+/year at the peak. Had a couple of times a plane missed the landing and repeat, and once a plane turn back on way to Hamburg for “minor problems”. Hope that covers me statistically…
Now reckon only about 30ish times a year.
164 - They are also failing to factor in Harriet Harmen’s impending resignation. The deluded sods.
So, the rule is that there’s always a swing to the Tories, whether they’re in opposition or not?
In truth, I assume it’s an artefact of Smithson’s Golden Rule, and the tendency of polls to overstate Labour.
164, Brown facing the voters will be like a preying mantis facing a thousand army ants. Grisly and inevitable.
160 - Don’t tell me, “Caveman” is dodgy as well?
Is that what you are referring to, the Palin bet.
Who else is on the list, I didn’t spot Mirthios as a welcher but I’m newer than you
Sir Michael White has a very strange ‘tache on Sky right now
167, Mr. Coxall, will you be up for Balls on election night?
165
I had a tyre burst on the runway as we were powering down the runway, Pilot aborted the take off. That was scary.
158 Proper punters own up to their errors, ScottP.
@166:
Whatever happened to the equality bill?
SeanT et al - if the probability of being killed in a plane crash is 1/50,000,000 (no idea if this is true - quoting Chris A @ 144 for this), then the probability of not dying is (1 - 1/50,000000) so the probability of not dying after 4000 flights (100 a year for 40 years, a high number by anyone’s standards) is:
(1 - 1/50,000000) ^ 4000 = 1 in 12,500
Think I’ll carry on flying!
Just watched on BBC short videos on PMs question time. When Cameron challenged Brown on the issue of expenses he simply pretended he wasn’t listening. The reason for this is that the idiot is more frightened of upsetting his MPs than he is the general public. Does he still not realise that partly due to this issue half his MPs are going to be sacked next year by the general public!?
Just watched the SOOP. The Duke of Edinburgh always seems to wear the Thistle rather than the Garter. Anyone know why?
158 - Some of us don’t disagree with Rod because we don’t accept the possibility of a hung Parliament. You have to be fairly blinkered not to recognise the scale of the task facing the Tories.
The issue is his dodgy use of statistics to assert his CERTAINTY of the outcome. Some of us have a view on the electoral outcome, but accept that their remain uncertainties which may produce a different result. So a hung Parliament won’t prove him “right”, and i don’t see why we should have to acknowledge as such.
169 - I hope you dont consider me dodgy
153. About a 99.9% chance, according to Laplace.
But would you risk your life on it?
@158/173:
Also, in the unlikely event there is a significant swing to Labour, this won’t have proved Rod right, since his argument is that this “always” happens. One election can’t support this one way or another.
165. Turbulence freaks me out. F*ck, even the noise of the wheels being retracted freaks me out. I have turned into a ladyboy.
The Lao Plaza is much nicer than the Vientiane Novotel. The Don Chan Palace is ghastly.
The food is generally very good: despite the communism. Some people think Vientiane is, quid for quid, the best dining city in the world. They may have a point.
173. Fair enough. Still don’t expect them to be happy about it
177 - With him being the Duke of Edinburgh, makes sense for him to wear the Thistle rather than the Garter.
I wonder if tim is coming to Fat Steves party? I’d like to see the cut of his jib.
We can then find out if he is a singular or plural bot.
130 - and the comment at the end of the article is worthy of the best #10 spin…
Democratic and Republican aides confirmed the exchange. A White House spokesman said he wasn’t immediately aware of the exchange. The aides who heard the remarks stressed that it wasn’t as boldly partisan as it might sound.
I have a sneaky suspicion which is beginning to gnaw away at me that Obama (a bit like Brown) wanted to achieve the goal of making it to the top, with little thought for why and what to do when he got there..
Chris A try Mongolian airways to Moscow and Aeroflop to London. Nervous exhaustion all round. The Aeroflop crew looked shattered too as they got of at Heathrow.
I used to travel an awful lot and discovered on day that I had an internal airmiles meter which suddenly showed red on a one day trip from Frankfurt to South Africa. Worth the trip in business terms but that old meter went mental.
Mind you I was always comfortable flying myself, but probably in the misleading belief that I was in control of my own destiny in a Cessna.
But while I will fly for holidays now, I gave up the travelling game a year or two after the red alert.
In fact, Sir Michael’s tache reminds me of toothpaste on his upper lip.
Not a good look.
178. Where have I ever said “certain”?
NEVER, Not Once. Nunca. Jamais. Nie.
I have only even said [and demonstrated why] it is very likely.
Scariest flight, C130 from Ascension to Falklands. Prior to take off the crew were unable to start the engines. Got another C130 to taxi in front and go to max revs, which started our C130 with the prop wash.
Took off for a 13 hr flight above the Atlantic in an aircraft that had been “bump” started. Never worked out if it was a wind up, but it scared the cack out of me.
179 - I don’t, you’ve already offered to pay on one bet.
re 156. In November 1998 Labour was well ahead in the polls and managed to lose out to Maggie
In Nov 97 Major was 13 points behind - which is exactly what happened.
re 175 answers.com
Although the site it links to plancecrashinfo.com seems to state 13.6 million to 1 for a safe airline
Flying trivia
If the pilot of your 747 announces an unscheduled stop at Frankfurt, it means the brakes are suspect. Frankfurt has the only runway in Europe long enough to land a jumbo without brakes.
@185:
Doesn’t our tim live in the frozen wastes of That North? Pity, I could tell him all about Bethnal Green and Bow’s open primary.
Speaking of which, who do I let know I’m up for a cheeky half with my PB chums?
151 - That is going to become as infamous as the Labour article saying they will increase their majority. Hahaha
I’m with Alex on this one. If I flipped a coin 1000 times and it came up heads every time, I’d take a very close look at the coin.
Sky Breaking News:
Kelly disappointed no mention of Expenses in Queen’s Speech.
182 - It’s flying over sea that really freaks me out. A serious bit of turbulence on my one trip over the Atlantic did for me. I can survive the Channel, but it’s ships if i ever want to go the the Americas again.
178 Alex - yes, I agree.
I think Rod tends to overstate the case, but that doesn’t make his thesis wrong, or uninteresting, and it is certainly helpful for those risking serious money on the outcome of elections, if only because it emphasises how small a shift in popular opinion is needed to create a materially different electoral outcome.
182 SeanT, however rough a flight may be, as long as the cabin crew aren’t weeping you’re fine. If they are, the planes going in hard.
195 - Mr Coxall you need to email this chap
unofficialpbbeers@googlemail.com
187-Aeroflop? Now much improved, apart from no free booze and they sometimes run out even then on internal flights!
Actually no complaints with them. Try Gazpromavia for a scary flight! (luckily snored my way through) But they have plenty of free booze.
Sean,
Flying is a lot safer.
A very rough caclulation
How many Brits die in vehicles accidents per year,say 2,000( 1000 pedestrians). Average number of miles travelled 8,000.
Now how many in planes say 100 (50 in Private Planes and 50 in Commercial Airctraft we may go several years without many being killed at all and then we may have a disaster once every ten years when say 200 are wiped out in a big crash). I would say that the average number of miles flown would be 5,000.
I believe there is one death every 10 million miles flown by plane
Very unscientific, numbers plucked out of thin air I know, but planes are much safer.
195 - I do, but could Ms Kaschke accompany you in my place.
154. Bupa is not ‘private’ but a provident organisation, and should be classed as ‘third sector’.
SeanT et al ref flying
After surviving 25 years as aircrew in the RAF I don’t fly much any more. But this is only due to the hassle of getting to the aircraft from when you first arrive at the airport. I am also very choosy about which airlines I will fly with, Aeroflot is a definite no-no.
175. Yes, but…
Here’s a very interesting blogpost for fearty and regular fliers out there (though he is talking, in part, about hobby pilots in small planes).
http://philip.greenspun.com/flying/safety
Scary sentences:
“We can also look at safety per hour. This makes sense for recreational pilots who have the alternative of spending a few hours flying around or spending those hours taking a scenic drive.
“If the average speed of car travel is 50 miles per hour, those 1.7 deaths occur in 2 million hours of driving. This makes general aviation, with 16 deaths per 1 million hours, roughly 20 times as dangerous per hour than driving.”
“As a co-techie contemplating aviation as a hobby, I carried out a similar back-of-the-envelope risk assessment recently, with similar conclusions. However, I approached it by trying to answer the question ‘How likely is it that I will die in a plane during a lifetime of recreational flying?’.
“Assuming, say, 4hrs flying for just under half the weekends in a year, spread over 30 years of active flying gives an approximate lifetime total of 2500hrs. So the chance of dying is (16/10^6)*2500 - a rather scary 4%.”
169 tim.Definitely not Caveman. You had a bet and took odds with someone whose name begins with an ‘ed’ and I queried it at the time.
Your reply was that he offered good odds.
Nothing at all to do with me being here longer than you. I am naturally suspicious and naturally trusting.
Have you ever considered that pun ters who would pay each other would take pride (and get acclaim ) in knocking you ?
Before your bet with ATID was (correctly imho) declared void by Peter the Punter, you were repeatedly accused of being a welcher. Only Chris A stood up for you.
1 ineventful crash landing with foam and fire engines, 1 aborted landing within feet of ground due to another plane on runway, 1 tree scraped (small branches & leaves in flaps & undercarriage) and multiple scary flights on DC3 when plane dropped hugely in air pockets. As Sean says was never concerned until last couple of years.
162 - Presumably he meant that motorcycling is safer per completed journey because motorbike journeys are typically short and have only one passenger.
So statistics showing FAR higher deaths per million passenger miles by motorbike than plane are misleading in one sense, as a million motorbike miles is thousands of individual journeys whereas you can knock off a million jumbo jet miles pretty quickly. Therefore each time you get on a plane, you should be more worried than each time you get on a plane.
It’s true that deaths per million passenger hours are slightly higher by plane than by car (though presumably not compared with motorbikes).
208 - how does this all compare with your chances of winning the lottery?
193 Chris A - that brings it in to 1/3400 for 4000 flights (if my maths is correct).
199 alex - I had experienced a sudden, massive drop due to turbulence over the Atlantic one night. Quite a few people woke up and screamed, and the woman next to me, who had just got up to go to the lavatory, found herself lying on top of two strangers.
But avidly watching every episode Air Crash Investigation completely cured my fear of flying.
189 - If you talk in certainties then i think it is reasonable to conclude that you hold few doubts, or capacity for entertaining alternative outcomes. Add that to your total reliance on “statistics” as evidence of truth and you don’t need to use the word “certain”.
206 - I already ‘fessed up on BUPA being a poor example
Whistling in the dark? Lighting a single candle rather than cursing the darkness? Madness?
212 - I was once told by a 31 year old actuary that he bought his lottery ticket after 5.30pm on a Saturday night, because it was not until then that his chances of winning the jackpot exceeded his chances of dying before the draw.
Oh my Googling skills are still crap - I’ve tried searching PB for ‘Guido Fawkes cash for honours’ and got 4 pb.com thread results with no posts from Mr Fawkes.
Where am I going wrong?
Do y’all know how many widebody aircraft have ever succesfully made a emergency landing at sea (where successful is defined as “somebody survives”)?
Clue: it’s not a large number. It’s not even really a number at all.
212 - Faced with a choice of whether to go hunting with Dick Cheney or driving with Teddy Kennedy, I wouldn’t like the odds on either
Ted, Witan, interesting!
I like the idea of an internal airmiles meter. I guess mine is close to showing red.
Is this why old people drive at 50 miles per hour on the middle lane of the motorway? The older you get, the more you realise the risks? Or the more you mentally exaggerate the risks, because of the closer proximity of death??
Either way, I’m glad I’m not on that Lao Air Chinese turboprop, flying into the Cordillera mountains, tomorrow.
Brown’s improvement continues.
“”This must be the only time a tax change in history when the leader of the opposition, the shadow foreign secretary and the shadow chancellor will know by name all those who will benefit,” he [Brown] observed. The Commons erupted. “Is this what they mean by ‘we’re all in this together’?”
Now that really was funny. Brown’s cheerfulness was fully restored, leaving Cameron scratching his head. Perhaps he was wondering why his barbs hadn’t met with their usual success: maybe Brown was trying smile therapy?”
http://www.politics.co.uk/feature/legal-and-constitutional/queen-s-speech-commons-sketch-$1341358.htm
218 Zero
Hello tim!!!!! Repost with spelling corrections.
tim, please put me out of my misery by explaining why the LABOUR concession on IHT in 2007 was the correct and principled thing to do, and why the thirty chinooks’ worth of money it gave away to the prosperous bourgeoisie woud not have been better spent on thirty chinooks. I am beginning to detect a whiff of big girl’s blousery on this issue.
Oh and why are the betting markets more accurate than opinion polls?
@220:
I reckon most people take a blase attitude to death as they get older.
Come on Grim Reaper, you lairy f*cker, I’m ready for you…
209 - Which one are you referring to the odds on a Labour% if Brown left?
218 Does the landing in the Hudson River count? That was pretty impressive.
217 - try this:
site:politicalbetting.com “guido fawkes” cash for honours
187 Witan
Also been a very frequent flier in my time, particularly on strangely named communist airlines - it was always the internal ones that did it - sliding seats and loose livestock.
The most alarming flight though I have taken was from Liverpool to Dublin (Manx Airways I think). It was a fourteen seater twin propeller machine which had been overbooked by a single seat. A volunteer was found to sit in the cockpit. As we took off the two internal lights in the ‘ceiling’ fell out of the socket and smashed on the aisle. Half way across the Irish Sea the pilot announced that he was switching off one of the two engines but gave no reason for so doing. The one stewardess had already apologised for not being able to offer hot drinks as there were problems with the electrics.
I don’t think fear of flying gets better with frequency. I always have and always will hate moments of the experience. It is fun however trying to pretend to the first timers or infrequents around you that it has no effect at all. The problem with business travel is that you never ended up sitting next to the pretty girl in the departure lounge whose hand may have needed holding. They were always put in the boot.
P.S. SeanT didn’t hire the only 4×4 in Vientiane out of fear of flying. Love of risk and adventure was winner.
221 ‘Brown’s improvement continues.’
Gabble, I wouldn’t go that far. The sinking ship has stabilised, but only because it’s just hit the bottom.
175 “the probability of not dying after 4000 flights (100 a year for 40 years, a high number by anyone’s standards) is:
(1 - 1/50,000000) ^ 4000 = 1 in 12,500″
Although you would have been exposed to a significant amount of radiation which might - just might - affect your longevity.
Had a neighbour who was on the BA pilots committee that reviewed the medical impact of flying on the human body. As well as the radiation, the vibration has very considerable affects on our frames…
Just watched the PPB. Apart from the historical inaccuracies, my observation would be if it’s a Queen’s speech broadcast, why have I come away without any clue as to what was in the speech?
I also wonder if it’s a good idea to highlight the cancelling of other countries’ debt when everyone knows we are up to our eyeballs…..
@222:
Exactly. All that gash about lifejackets and whistles and straps and lights and topups and slides and flotation cots and doors to automatic and cross check exists solely to make you feel a little better about your impending obliteration.
218 thought there were survivors ( few) from the hijacked one that cart wheeled ?
201 - “however rough a flight may be, as long as the cabin crew aren’t weeping you’re fine.”
If they are loudly reciting passages from the Qur’an you also want to worry a bit.
re 213 that’s what I made it as well. My scariest flight was from Miami to Gatwick. I’d missed the connection because of the paranoia of US security in 2005 and they got me in the last seat on an alternative flight. So I was sat in the middle of the back row next to a smelly Italian and the loo. The first hour was OK and they’d served dinner to all but the last three or four rows and then the seat belt signs came on. Shortly afterwards they gave up with the dinner as it was getting increasingly bouncy and even the stewardesses were looking worried. I eventually got something to eat an hour later
Common sense prevails on duck feeding
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/8366850.stm
221 Labour and IHT again showing why it should not be in power. Not even a rudimentary understanding of numbers.
But then the f*cked state of the economy is already a giveaway on that one…
Regarding SeanT’s upcoming road trip through the jungle in place of flying. What is the betting that the finale of TomKnox3 features the hero or villain retracing those very same steps in the dodgy 4×4?
A clue to Labour’s strategy at the next election is in tonights Labour Party broadcast which in my opinion is excellent.
Reminding people of Labour values and that they have always been the ‘progressive’ party. It also reminds voters how the Tories have always been a barrier to change. The Mandela sequence being a particularly good example.
Well done Labour’s ad agency. A nice shift from the usual vox pops.
223 - Right because it recognised a rise in house prices.
The Tories big payout gets bigger the more like Osborne and Cameron you are, with those families getting the biggest payout.
223 - Who said the betting markets were more accurate than opinion polls?
My buy of Labour at 203 was based on a disconnect between opinion poll movements and the market and a judgement that Labour (even with Brown) were underpriced by about 15 seats.
221 - I must have missed the point on this whole IHT death tax thing.
As I understood it the government isn’t ‘giving’ anybody anything - this is merely letting people keep their own money, and not taxing death.
What am I missing?
So its all over for President Tony?
I bet he’ll be in the Lords by the time Brown quits Downing St.
221 Gabble Brown’s improvement continues
Yes, good, isn’t it? Only another few weeks and Cameron can be quite certain that Brown will make it to the GE.
Fingers crossed, eh?
241 - David Cameron prioritises his family and friends for a tax cut above any other group and above any other spending priority or debt repayment.
242 - I don’t think Blair can be bothered with the Lords just now. But if he did it obviously wouldn’t need to be now as he can basically join whenever he wants, not just the next few months.
230 Hardest landing I’ve ever had was in a KLM 747 at Arusha, Tanzania. Not sure the runway was really long enough, but we slammed onto the tarmac - and all the luggage spilled out from the overhead bins, whacking numerous people, all the oxygen masks fell down - all very messy.
Also, was in a plane over the Himalayas that dropped like a stone - for what seemed like an age. Not where you want to be dropping like a stone - with pointy rocks from 29,000 feet!
230 Hardest landing I’ve ever had was in a KLM 747 at Arusha, Tanzania. Not sure the runway was really long enough, but we slammed onto the tarmac - and all the luggage spilled out from the overhead bins, whacking numerous people, all the oxygen masks fell down - all very messy.
Also, was in a plane over the Himalayas that dropped like a stone - for what seemed like an age. Not where you want to be dropping like a stone - with pointy rocks from 29,000 feet!
154 TimB/S&S Was out at a meeting, so missed out on the US healthcare debate for a while.
TimB. Mind meld again. You made the point I was going to re the difference between taxation and insurance.
If the Democrats want to raise taxation to pay for healthcare subsidies to those who cannot afford insurance, I would not have too much of a problem with that - it would be honest, transparent, and open to accountability. I have a major problem with the government keeping such cross subsidies off the government books through forcing youngsters to buy cost inflated insurance even if they don’t want to, and criminalising those who choose not to be coerced. [On a side thought: Why are the Dems and Labour so intent on criminalising ever greater portions of our populations??] And making the young cross subsidize the old’s healthcare is an extraordinarily regressive taxation system - talk about robbing from the poor to pay for the rich. Now that’s something you’d expect the baby-eating Republicans/Tories to come up with.
234. One of the funniest scenes in modern fiction, for me, is in Martin Amis’s The Information. The hero is on a rather turbulent flight, and he’s wondering if he is just being paranoid, and then he looks through the cabin door… and realises that the pilot has shat himself with fear.
Let’s try a bit of basic science here.
The opinion poll spread or ’shape’ is a function, in time, of a number of variables, the opinion ratings of the various political parties.
How that function varies in time is not known, other than it is known that it can sometimes do so significantly - and sometimes hardly vary at all. Thus the factors which cause the variation (both objective improvements and deteriorations in the parties as well as presentational factors) are not known.
Studies over time show that major variations in ‘vote shares’ on that function over shortish periods running up to the end of a government’s life are far less common than are small variations. This is true whether there is an underlying trend one way or another or an underlying stasis in the voter-distribution between the parties. Therefore, if you were to do a probability-distribution of the likely outcomes in six months time, in terms of the present output of the function, the vast majority of likely outcomes are likely to be close to the present shares. However, a significant, though smallish, proportion of outcomes will be at some distance from the present state.
Obviously it is more likely than not that the present poll state will be close to the eventual poll-state. if polls are reasonably good (personally I reckon they are not normally much better than 3 per cent ‘off’ the actual positions which is actually a ten per cent variation on the ratings of a party with a 30 per cent vote share) then it is far more likely than not that the shares in May 2010 will be close to what they are now. There is, though, a good though not massive chance that things will be significantly-different, one way or t’other (or even t’others!). And nobody, here or anywhere else, KNOWS which way that particular cookie will crumble in this election…or the next…or the next…..
A lot of things have to go wrong for planes to crash. Take Tenerife 1977.
1. Planes diverted to unfamiliar airport due to terrorist threat.
2. Delays led to tension and annoyance for pilots.
3. Airport shrouded in fog
4. Pan-Am taxi-ing plane missed it’s runway turnoff
5. Air Traffic controllers [Spaniards :roll:] had one eye on a footie match on TV.
6. Runway lights failed.
7. Use of non-standard language by ATC led stressed KLM pilot to believe he had been cleared for take-off, when in fact he hadn’t.
8. Each plane transmitted at the same instant “Still taxi-ing” and “taking off” respectively. Radio interference meant neither heard the other’s message…
In any one of those things hadn’t happened, 583 people probably wouldn’t have died.
239. Roger, why did Laours Broadcast take credit for women getting the vote and the defeat of facism?
If anyone missed the Impressions Show last week, here’s John Culshaw in an absolutely hilarious rap as Gordon:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWbfvZF7-WQ&feature=related
His lyrics are incredibly funny and so true!
253 - Nobody missed the dire Culshaw, as it was posted 50 times on here.
tim-re dodgy bet. You took a price on Labour vote share which looked like rubbish to me in the first place……but each to his own.
Maybe I am wrong but I would have made him put his deposit in as he himself suggested.
I think we know who is trustworthy on here. OGH and the guys plus about half a dozen.
252 - Seriously? Labour’s broadcast was “vote for us because of something we didn’t do 90 years ago”?
Brown screws up over expenses, not once but twice, and all Tim ‘n gabble post is IHT. Which will win votes, sorting out expenses or promises to make a death tax more complex?
252 Perhaps because the list of the rest of their achievements was a bit thin?
And did they mention how they bugger up the economy every time? No? You surprise me…
237. As regular pb-ers may have guessed, the finale of Tom Knox 3 - The Severed Men - is going to take place in Balagezong, on the Tibetan-Yunnan border, where I saw God last Tuesday, just after lunch.
Here is the exact place I had my encounter:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlucian/4044868304/
The book is going to BEGIN in Laos, in the Plain of Jars, and by the mysterious menhirs of Hintang.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jungle_boy/2040189366/
The subplot will commence in the Cham des Bondons.
http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/2009/09/where-i-was-yesterday.html
On flying: you know that “brace position” they ask you to adopt? By all means adopt it if it makes you feel better, but be aware that it is not intended to preserve your life. It is to protect your teeth as much as possible from the impact for ease of identification of your remains. Or so I was told by someone who writes software for Boeing.
254 - Try and surprise us with your comments one day Tim.
254 - Try and surprise us with your comments one day Tim.
If Cameron had been the subject you would have the link in every post you write and be saying it was the best thing ever.
256. Basically they went through their “achievments” since 1900. Obviously creation of the NHS and the Minimum Wage are fair enough. But I’m not sure how they can take credit for the Liberal/Tory coalition giving women the vote and I’m not sure how they can take credit for the defeat of facism - Though I suppose they were part of the war cabinet? Even so, seems a dubious claim.
Now, if the Tories did the same kind of Broadcast they could genuinely take credit for the defeat of Communism….
239 - Roger - I would agree with you that it was better than the punchbag nonsense, the Chameleon rubbish et. al. It does appear to suffer from factual inaccuracies though (Google is your friend). However there is still nothing of substance behind it. We are in a mess and dreaming is all well and good, but dreaming may not go down well.
218/222 All the passengers survived the landing on the Hudson river, and 50 survived an ocean landing:
“Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 was hijacked on 23 November 1996 en route from Addis Ababa to Nairobi on a Bombay - Addis Ababa - Nairobi - Brazzaville - Lagos - Abidjan route, by three Ethiopians seeking political asylum. The plane crash-landed in the Indian Ocean near Comoros after running out of fuel, killing 125 of the 175 passengers and crew on board”
Did anyone watch Balls vs (Gova + Laws) on C4?
Balls got utterly destroyed…
Just seen a debate on C4 news.
Dear god…. Ed Balls is just vile.
Tory ok
Lib bloke was rather good I thought.
Ed likes to shout over peeps doesn’t he? no wonder him and Gordo get on well.
On topic. Apols if this has already been said - I’ve not had time to read the thread.
Surely, this old line is the flip side of the ‘Tories should be 30% ahead’ (a comment I heard again today, btw)? It’s based on the flawed polls of the past, which exaggerated the lead the popular party had due to shy voters not admitting to their preferred choice.
The so-called swingback / government recovery was an illusion caused by the difference between the opinion polls and election result, not a movement of actual voting intention. Admittedly, governments usually do recover but not always (as Mike points out in the header) and not always by enough. The Tories recovered from 1995 to 1997 based on the imperfect measure of council election results - but then Labour has recovered from their worst deficits which averaged around 20% at one point during the Summer of 2008.
The election campaign could make a difference. It has done so before. It’s far from guaranteed who will benefit most (though I think the Lib Dems will end up as net beneficiaries due to increased coverage).
Gove, not Gova…
IHT = tip top topper
DMT = IFA dropper.
Keep fighting the good fight Sir tim. I appreciate your principled support against such a populist measure by the blue team.
If only the reds hadn’t cut IHT in 2007 too…
This is the e-mail to Labour members about the PPB. Don’t read if you’ve just eaten.
http://www.torybear.com/2009/11/vomit.html
259 SeanT, is the book about more than pointy rocks of various sizes? You might want to add Ha Long Bay, Vietnam…
http://tidingsspot.info/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/halong-bay.jpg
260 - Thanks, but i’ll put my faith in wikipedia on this one.
241 TimB You’re talking like an American again. Remember, UK is a socialist paradise. Everything is owned by the State, which kindly gives us what it does not tax.
PB LONDON GET-TOGETHER - 26th November 18:30 - LOCATION CONFIRMED
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/17/the-city-of-london-november-26th-2009-at-1830/
Hello,
We now have a location for the “after work drinks” event next Thursday.
If you would like to atttend the free event, please email
unofficialpbbeers@googlemail.com
Re. 263. … And facism.
271. Yes, it’s more than just a few pointy rocks. It’s also got…. caves! And…. other stuff!
Actually it has rather a cute premise, if I say so myself. But I’m not saying what, cause someone might nick it. My main worry is doing justice to a pretty good idea.
France, China, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia are the main locations. Might squeeze in London as well. THE SEVERED MEN is the title.
And on that revelatory note, kharb jai and bot nuit. Jungle tomorrow.
244 tim you missed out smearing Cameron for eating babies….
275 The Conservatives - an equal opportunities destroyer of totalitarian regimes!
On planes, I was on an old TAP Air Portugal 707 on the way back to Birmingham from Faro many years ago. We got the seatbelt due to turbulence request and then the steward came and sat down next to us. He gripped the seat so hard you could see the blood vessels and his knuckles. We got chased down the runway by the fire engines and given a brief soaking on the engines due to a suspected fuel leak. Not the most pleasant experience.
BTW the TAP apparently stands for Take Another Plane….
267 Floater
The new Labour line is obviously “they said it couldn’t be done” - trying to get some traction for their pathetic PPB.
It sounded stupid when Balls said it though.
His tendency to just talk over everyone, interrupt constantly, not listen to the other interviewees in any way, and yet not answer the question put by the interviewer, comes across very badly. I can’t believe he doesn’t realize this.
Gove definitely love-bombed the Lib Dem there. Laws should probably be a Tory anyway though.
250 wage slave - For once, a very sensible post!
The only thing I would take issue with is the proposition that you can’t know which way the cookie is likely to crumble. Of course you can’t know for certain, but I think you can sometimes have a good idea (subject of course to random fluctuations and the impact of as-yet-unknown events), by looking at the politics and the personalities.
In the current case, the personalities are already well-known to the electorate, and are therefore pretty much factored in to the existing polls (unless there’s a change of leader).
However, the politics are another matter. I believe that Labour have dug themselves an almighty hole by their continued denial of the reality of the public finances, and the Queen’s Speech today merely emphasised that denial. That means either that they will have to admit that they have been lying and that they have plans for massive spending cuts after all (thereby alienating their own core supporters and torpedoing their own credibility), or they will have to try to brazen it out for six months, which I don’t think is sustainable and which will therefore damage their credibility even more.
Either way, it looks very likely that Labour’s position will get relatively worse than the current polls show, or at best will remain unchanged.
That is why I think an improvement to hung-parliament territory is unlikely.
…we even do jumped up little juntas.
268 - The other issue in relation to historic polls is that they never used to include “don’t knows”. This obviously was to the polling disadvantage of the unpopular governing party. Nowadays many pollsters tend to see “don’t know” as an indication of ‘reluctant’ single party support and make allowance for them
279 “BTW the TAP apparently stands for Take Another Plane…”
Pakistan International Airlines = PIA = Please Inform Allah…
250 - So they’re goodish unless the basic facts change. Is that a good summary?
276 “bot nuit” is a typo which works on so many levels.
A potentially interesting programme on tonight: Make me an MP, 10:45, BBC1.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00ny07y/Make_Me_an_MP/
Documentary following John Smeaton, the ex-baggage handler who foiled a terrorist attack on Glasgow airport, as he campaigns to become an independent MP.
227 THANKS alex “217 - try this:
site:politicalbetting.com “guido fawkes” cash for honours
by alex November 18th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
221: ‘Brown’s improvement continues.’
I don’t normally agree with Gabble but I think he is spot on here. Brown looked happier and more at ease than at any time in recent memory. Obviously the opportunity to assert that Cameron and Osborne were corrupt - vile, shameless politicians who are planning to rig the tax system to benefit specifically only those who reside in the Notting Hill area of London - was therapeutic, even elevating, for Brown. He looked a delighted man with a big smile across his face!
Ed Balls was a disaster of c4 tonight. Laws very good and benefited from being tucked away at the other side of Snow when ever he was given the chair. Poor Gove, having to sit next to the most ignorant man in politics, the body language between the two was telling.
“Turning the best economy in decades into a trillion pounds of debt.”
They said it couldn’t be done…
“the most massive uncontrolled immigration into Britain since the Saxons - without telling the people it was going to happen.”
They said it couldn’t be done…
“Giving control of our country to a bunch of unelected Euro-wonks under the guise of pretending a Constitution was just a Treaty. Having lied about giving the people a referendum.”
They said it couldn’t be done…
[get the idea Labour? Bloody disastrous slogan guys...]
Seriously, if I were a floating voter, having voted Labour in the last couple of elections but now unhappy with them and their direction, would telling me I should vote for them because of things done 30, 50 or even 70 years ago make me switch back? Really? This is the PPB of an opposition without recent years in power to point to.
From Guido,
Andrew Lansley and Theresa May will be holding a press conference first thing tomorrow morning to attack Labour to launch the Conservative Party’s campaign against Labour’s plans to cut disability benefits for pensioners. Gordon’s populist care-in-the-home plan seems to be unraveling – it will be financed by taking away benefits from elderly disabled. That will make an already rebellious Labour backbench unhappy…
http://order-order.com/2009/11/18/queens-speech/
277 - Its handy now Camerons face goes bright red when a direct hit occurs, its like paintballing.
Or as Jimi Hendrix put it.
But darlin’ can’t you see my signals turn from green to red
And with you I can see a traffic jam straight up ahead
294. Be handy to know the principles of social justice behind the great labour thirty chinook iht giveaway of 2007, too.
“financed by taking away benefits from elderly disabled.”
It’s 10p tax time again, isn’t it? Punish the poor to try and damage the opposition politically.
I hope Tim and Gabble are proud of their party.
294 I kinda like the idea that Cameron gets livid when he’s lied to.
It shows us all when Gordon is telling us a great big pile of steaming pooh…
There was an article in tonight’s Evening Standard under Mandelson’s name that I’d swear was written by Tim. It began with a reference to last week’s “flustered” performance by Cameron at PMQs.
279/284
BA = bloody awful
I rue the passing of Sabena = such a bloody experience never again
254. I think Culshaw is the best impersonator of the bunch. Don’t you like him?
252. Gin. The left have always led the fight against fascism and were infavour of universal sufferage. The Tories left to their own devices would still be supporting hereditaries in the HOL the ducking stool for gays and Groats for our currency!
279 - TWA = Travel With Anxiety
BOAC = Better on a Camel
297.Mark, I think Cameron is good when he is angry, comes across and caring and passionate. Brown on the other hand appears petulant and bad tempered.
301, Or at the height of Profumo - Bend Over Again Christine
297 - And that he actually gives a s##t, rather than la-la land man. The pictures of the front bench were extremely revealing, all sitting listening to what Cameron had to say, except this idiot in the middle, who kept giggling away to himself (when nobody else was laughing). No wonder there are all these rumours about his mental condition.
273 - Shucks pardner - doggone forgot, y’all
Excellent choice of venue, Fat Steve.
296 It’s just a variant on punching poor people in the face for being poor.
Now it’s punching poor old people in the face for being poor and old. Another winner from Labour.
Labour. They should all be nailed to trees in the National Forest. It’s in the Midlands - good motorway connections, so easy access for the maximum number of people to come and enjoy the spectacle.
Hello look what the BBC headline into soldier death is,
Poor kit ‘did not kill soldier’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8367396.stm
“I think we know who is trustworthy on here. OGH and the guys plus about half a dozen.
by URW November 18th, 2009 at 7:15 pm ”
I must object to the implication that anyone who hasn’t been a betting partner on PB [almost everyone] is some sort of weasly and dishonest toad is very rude.
I said earlier today that the superiority of betters as more worthy lifeforms was risible seems to alive and sadly true.
“The left have always led the fight against fascism”
That’s historically inaccurate bunk, even without noting the support of many on the left for regimes like Stalin.
296 David. Neil @15 says there has been a consultation going on. I admit I hadn’t come across this consultation, but it would certainly be good to hear the findings.
308 (cont) It is like something that was written by Battling Bob himself!
302 - On Cameron, The red face is when he’s embarrassed and being laughed at, we’ve seen it twice in a week.
Labour need to work on jokes at Daves expense, he doesn’t like it and it shows.
I agree with the herd on Balls, he’s down in the Grayling and Hague class, it doesn’t help that he’s up against one of the best two or three Tories.
Roger - Culshaw might be the best of the bunch, but thats like being the best of the portrait painters on Great Yarmouth seafront, technically competent but with no inspiration and generally substandard material
Now I wonder why some people only post polls that supposedly agree with their bias?
I’m sure the less credulous posters would have realised but here’s the pollster averages for the US president’s job approval ratings.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php
Now which poll, apart from Rasmussen (the permanent outlier) do they pick on? Yep, you guessed it, the one that is out of line with other recent similar polls.
Maybe try not to be so transparent next time, you make it far too easy!
Cameron indirectly referred to the McBride affair during his speech.
He and his wife were badly wronged and they are entitled to their indignation. However, I think resurrecting it now or in the future and being seen to complain about it, himself, could backfire.
294 The problem is Tim the media consensus is that the Queen’s speech was a bit of a joke, complete with Joke Bills etc. The media consensus is also that we are in a dire state economically and militarily and playing political games whilst the country is suffering so badly really doesn’t look too clever.
Baggers.
For the record, I missed it.
I’m pretty sure Labour’s going to poll somewhere between 25% and 30% at the next election. It’s just a question of where in that range they end up on polling day. Anyone disagree?
313, repeating something doesn’t make it true, tim. If it did, Britain’s economy would be the best in the world, having never suffered a bust.
Anecdote alert: Workplace response to who will win the election - all chorused ‘hung parliament’. The media are getting that idea out there very effectively. What effect it will have on voting intentions I really don’t know.
88. Are Microsoft on the PB.com Platinum Channel at £200/week?
317.Baggers&SallyC, I thought it was really funny, so did the kids.
309 - To be fair he was talking about settling bets.
136 - you worked in the Aviation Insurance industry Neil?
310 David, you’re forgetting that Stalin stood firm against Hitler on moral grounds. No, wait. He had a political pact with him until Hitler attacked him.
A few points regarding the subject of flying, which differentiate the act from travelling via other forms of transport.
We fear flying with a commercial airline more then riding our own motor cycle, or driving our own cars for logical, human and highly sensible reasons.
1. Terrorists have not as yet started targeting individual members of the public. However they have and still do target commercial aircraft.
2. When we are flying, we have absolutely no control over events.
3. It can take a long time to finally hit the ground, from 40,000 feet.
4. If God had intended mankind to fly, mankind would have been born with wings. Therefore 40,000 feet above the Earth is a very un-natural place for a human being to find themselves.
5. Flying is extremely boring, therefore one has a long time to contemplate certain possibilities.
6. There once was a time when the pilot was highly skilled and experienced, therefore could actually fly the craft without the need of a flight computer. Now days the half drunk internet trained clown has as much true knowledge of the potential flying brick he is commanding, as does the chief steward. Therefore if anything did actually go wrong, the passengers might just as well be flying the thing, for all the difference it would make.
7. Comparing relative safety using statistics which involve distances is silly. This has nothing whatsoever to do with highly rational fear. Travelling is potentially DANGEROUS, as is doing just about everything else. The less you travel the safer you will be. Therefore human beings are conditioned through many thousands of years of experience, to stay perfectly where they are unless there is a pressing NEED to be somewhere else. Aircraft take us more usually a long way from our homes, therefore we tend to shit ourselves more then when riding down the local shops to buy an extra pint or milk.
8. Excitement and fear are closely related human emotions. It is often difficult for human being to properly differentiate between the two feeling.
I think Culshaw did a good job in his impression of Brown. People who are whingeing about it need to explain how anyone could possibly do a better job.
299 etc.
Queer And Nasty Try Another Service
Let Us Fondle The Hostesses And Not Say Anything
95 The trend is no friend to Labour.
239 Reminding people of Labour’s “values” is unlikely to appeal to floating voters. The less they here or see of Labour, the more that Labour might salvage from the wreckage.
244 How do you know what (if anything) the Camerons and Osbornes will inherit? Why are you so keen that other people should pay a tax which you’re exempt from?
326. Ask Rory Bremner
319 - You’ll see on the previous thread that Wibbler has noticed Daves unfortunate face malfunction too.
Not near a tv - did Labour use the Hovis ad?
Did somebody say unfortunate face malfunctions,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anX2rILSh3M&
330, I didn’t say he doesn’t go red. I think he was red in the face when he bitchslapped Brown for playing politics with Baby P’s death.
Still, he can only dream of Brown’s complexion.
Noticed that the bill allowing peers to resign from the Lords has been included, that one was rumoured and firmly denied… before appearing today.
A good idea for Labour would be to produce a list naming and shaming all those Notting Hill residents that Dave and Ozzy are friends with and who will be benefit from their corrupt rigging of the British taxation system. Gordon has started the momentum of this attack today; Labour would be foolish to lose it!
313. Have you seen Culshaw’s impression of a usually rather mouthy poster who goes all quiet when asked about the political principles underlying the great labour thirty chinook iht giveaway of 2007? Side splitting.
313 I think Gordon should keep cracking jokes, and Cameron should keep being serious about the tremendous debt levels that our children and Grandchildren will have to deal with as well as the constant stream of soldiers deaths that Gordon has caused through underfunding.
BBCLauraK
New calculation suggests there are 46 legislating days before a May 6th election - really enough time for 13 government bills?
330 tim
I agree that the red face thing is pretty unfortunate.
Having said that, it’s hardly the worst presentational weakness in the world. I think almost all of Gordon Brown’s personal weaknesses are far more apparent, and far worse.
Biting fingernails, picking his nose, shaking in fear, pounding the dispatch box, that weird frown thing, the claw, the rictus grin, the crazy swinging a la Youtube, the stutter, the disjointed hand movements… and many many more.
tim, if getting red when being lied to is the only negative you have managed to come up with, it must have gone pretty well for the Blue team. Probably a good idea to give it a bit of a rest now as it is becoming more and more apparent you have no real ammunition to attack him with over his response to the thin and insipid gruel served up by Brown this morning.
331 - Plato you can see it on politicshome.
Think Hovis “Last stop on’t round were old Ma Peggoty’s place - but it were a grand ride down afterwards - and all brought to you by Labour, the party that is both a floor wax and a dessert topping!”
DELTA = Don’t Ever Leave The Airport
I have flown with Delta 3 times - and was separated from my luggage all 3 times…not great.
335 - Hmmm, playing with fire me thinks, starter for 10…
Labour donor Lord Sainsbury avoids £27m capital gains tax
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2787307/Labour-donor-Lord-Sainsbury-avoids-27m-capital-gains-tax.html
317, 322 - Thanks!
313 - come on Tim, you’d be singing his praises if the song was about Cameron. You’re just upset that comedians are now picking on Labour, rather than the Conservatives. Boo hoo.
BOAC = Boys overseas after crumpet
BEA = Back every afternoon
300 Universal suffrage was implemented by the Conservatives and Liberals between 1867 and 1918, not Labour.
The Left actually have a pretty mixed record when it comes to fighting fascism. Certainly, they woke up to threat from Hitler slightly earlier than the National Government did, but only slightly. Labour actually were in favour of abolishing the RAF in 1935, and, at the time, attacked the National Government as warmongers.
And some elements within the Labour Party were very sympathetic towards totalitarian regimes in Eastern Europe, and the IRA.
One part of me, deep down, wants Labour to win the next election just to find what they would do with no money to spend as a cover for having no policies.
347 - I would say could the last one out please turn the lights off, but I doubt they will be working by then.
Another soldier killed in Afghanistan.. we must be near the 100 figure for this year.
Another soldier killed in Afghanistan
347 The problem is Alex they don’t care. The aim is to get as good a job on the EU gravy train as possible, and a totally bankrupt Britain is a perfect excuse for total assimilation into the EU selling the British people down the river and selling off British assets cheaply.
349 - I’m sure Battling Bob and Gordo will reassure us that he was fully equipped with the best possible kit.
347 I see what you mean. But the prospect for Britain would be terrifying.
175 - My wife once went on a fear of flying course, the gur running it (senior pilot with a large UK airline) later died in plane crash (ok, he was in a spirfire at time!)
314 ukpaul. Good impression of an ostrich there. This is from politico.com - hardly your right wing types - citing CBS and Gallup, so that’s in addition to Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Zogby, and Harris:
“Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.
“Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.
“Since then, however, a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama’s agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.
“A Gallup Poll released last week offered a disturbing glimpse about the state of play: just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year. In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa.
“Obama’s own popularity among independents has fallen significantly, too. A CBS News poll Tuesday showed the president’s approval rating among unaligned voters falling to 45 percent — down from 63 percent in April.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29646.html
Kelly has criticised Brown for not including anything in the QS about expenses and the measures required
More on Kelly:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Queens-Speech-Sir-Christopher-Kelly-Is-Disappointed-No-Mention-Of-Expenses-In-Queens-Speech/Article/200911315457105?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_1&lid=ARTICLE_15457105_Queens_Speech%3A_Sir_Christopher_Kelly_Is_Disappointed_No_Mention_Of_Expenses_In_Queens_Speech
Replay of Balls now. c4+1
346-To be fair,that was with Lansbury at the helm;his pacifist inclinations were central to Bevin’s brutal hatchet job at that years Labour Party Conference.
From ConservativeHome,
“A Conservative MP calls to tell me that one of his astounded colleagues counted the number of Labour MPs present as just 127 out of 350.”
Maybe they were all too busy playing at social worker?
154. Wait a second–once everyone is required to buy health insurance, will the indigent care laws be repealed? So if you haven’t bought health insurance and decide to come into the ER, the cops will come to haul you away?
I suppose it would make for some interesting scenes in the waiting room.
By the way, the worst airline I have ever flown is RyanAir. I have had more enjoyable flights on Russian budget airlines (the fleet seemed to be made entirely of leftovers from Aeroflot). The service was less surly and the food was free and of better quality.
346. Tory Bear does a good demolition of Labour’s video - Labour are economical with the truth, if nothing else.
http://www.torybear.com/2009/11/odd-decision.html
Air Malawi = ‘Er…Where Are We?
346. And of course a rather significant chunk of the left favoured non-cooperation and even sabotage of the war effort initially, on the grounds it was a ‘capitalist war’ and that the Nazis were allied with their darling Stalin.
355 - I could have posted numerous polls showing positive numbers but didn’t. Why do you feel it’s important to post one that comes along with something different? Psychologically it’s telling.
And anyone who is paying attention knows what has happened with ‘independent’ voters, it’s hardly worth bringing up but they have been swelled greatly by people too embarrassed to call themselves Republicans. Independents as a group are now, therefore, more right wing than prevciously (a lot of the teabaggers now identify as independents for example).
Vote share changes among independents is therefore less of a valid yardstick than it would be among moderates.
As for what happened in the recent guberatorials, look at VA, it appears that Deeds lost out on the base by trying to go too far to the right. Well, that serves him right and a salutary lesson to those next year, make sure you please the people who vote for you, you will lose if you try and please those that don’t.
361 I agree that Ryanair is terrible.
And of course, the men and women who defeated Hitler immediately voted Labour.
343 Lord Sainsbury must be one of those rich IHT gainers that are personally known to Cameron and Osb…oh…really? A LABOUR donor? Well well, who would have thought…
Another catastrof*ck for Labour on the day Gordon goes big on rich Tories.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
364- Corzine lost in New Jersey too, no doubt, because he decided to run as a right-wing loon.
355- TimT, some people will only believe what they want to believe, so sometimes it’s better to leave it at that. Personally, I hope that the Democrats manage to convince themselves that they don’t have any problems, at least until next November.
On a flight back from Portugal, the carrier I was supposed to be flying with was replaced at late notice by an airline called Astraeus. The pilot for the flight, one Bruce Dickinson, lead singer of Iron Maiden. NUURRRRSSEEEEEEE!
362 Some former colleagues of mine were on an internal flight in central Africa, and as they came in to land, there was the most horrific vibration and grinding noise - and the plane finally skidded to a halt at the end of the runway.
As they checked that they were all in one piece, the door opened from the cockpit. A big grinning face peered out and uttered the immortal words:
“Oops. Sorry. Forgot to put the wheels down…”
361. How much did you pay for the ryanair flight?
354 Floater, that’s a dreadful story. The loss of a Spitfire like that…
Labour’s ‘against the odds’ video should maybe called ‘against the facts’. Another peculiarity is the prominence given to John Smith and Neil Kinnock with a voice over saying they won against the odds. More accurate to say that Kinnock lost against the odds.
368 - No, because he was tied to corruption. He should have been cut loose but, again, a useful message was sent about candidate choice.
The most interesting poll of the day is this one which looks at the more rigid ideological basis of the Republican voter as opposed to the less rigid one from Democrats.
Democrats:
58% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
38% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues
Republicans:
43% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
51% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/17/rel17e.pdf
Worst flight Air Afrique from Accra to Agades. While boarding we could see a mechanic inside an engine hitting something very hard with a lump hammer, during the flight the lights/AC kept flickering on and off and on landing we hit a goat.
366 Well, about half of them did. The other half voted Conservative, Liberal, or Independent.
364 AFAIK, Obama’s ratings aren’t bad by historical standards, but I think there’s no doubt that the Republicans are more effective, and the Democrats less so, than anyone would have predicted a year ago.
OT. Flight anecdotes. I was on a flight from New Orleans to Heathrow on American Airlines when a pilot came out of the cabin and sat next to me. After introducing himself as one of the three pilots he explained that on flights over 10 hours there was a shift system ‘one pilot rests here next to you while the other two fly the plane’. ‘Tell me’ he said ‘Where are you going?’ !!
377, serves Obama right for being a dithering cretin who shows his best ally the cold shoulder.
370 - His series on flying is on YouTube. You should watch it. What he can do with an airplane is impressive. His attempts to put an Airbus into a fatal stall is quite amusing!
366 - Gabble, I talked to my dad about this (who was alive at the time). You are right, Labour won a landslide. Churchill offered no change and got defeated. The Labour govt imposed prescription charges and increased rationing, causing a huge loss of popularity. That resulted in 13 years of Tory rule.
375 The Democrats are clearly a far broader church than the Republicans, taking in people who would (in our terms) be on the far left of the political spectrum, and others who would happily sit on the right of the Conservative Party. But that does generate some interesting tensions within the party.
374 - And John Smith was even less successful.
346: Not to mention Kinnock andCo were trying to do background deals with the commies.
On my first aircraft training course we were doing aircraft emergency drills when a fellow trainee was asked what emergency lighting would come on in the event of the aircraft crashing. He replied, “the light of the explosion”. He was asked to leave the room by the instructor.
372. Can’t remember exactly–it was around £50 for a trip from London to Frankfurt. However, there was the extra fee for check-in at the desk, as you couldn’t check in online without an EU passport. Then there was the fee for checking bags as I didn’t want to have to stick all my toiletries for a week-and-a-half’s worth of trip into teensy-tiny bottles or have my things stolen by security. Then there was the fee for the bus to Frankfurt after it turned out that Frankfurt-Hahn meant “Hahn” and not “Frankfurt.”
On the way back, my friend was over the luggage weight limit by half a kilo and paid £70 extra. I bought a pair of Falkor slippers instead of a book and therefore my trip was cheaper. It still wasn’t worth it.
376
“and on landing we hit a goat.”
Better than my experience on an internal Nigerian flight - the goat was inside the cabin…
OMG Labour still went with that PPB
Clearly they have zero money to spend and want to fight an imaginary foe.
Carry on chaps.
347 - “One part of me, deep down, wants Labour to win the next election just to find what they would do with no money to spend as a cover for having no policies.”
Surely they would just pass the Government Has Money Act 2010? After all, legislating an intention magically makes it happen.
385. The only thing Labour is economical with is the truth.
Laker Airways in 1977 was pretty dodgy, I was pretty young at the time but the contrast between that and air travel now is pretty marked.
388 - Has the Govt said what the penalties for the Conservatives failing to half the budget deficit in 4 years are?
377- I will quote a Democrat who has put the Dems’ predicament quite well:
“Listen, it hasn’t been an easy time,” said T.J. Rooney, a former state legislator and the chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “It’s almost like we’re a victim of our own success. When you’re governing, that changes the political dynamic.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29646.html
Of course, I’m happy to quote him since I’ve been saying much the same thing since last year. Once you have all the levers of power in the U.S., it’s VERY difficult to stay on top for any extended period of time. As Mr. Rooney says, the political dynamic changes when one party takes over the entire system. Americans just don’t like one-party rule.
Also, here’s another portrayal of how Obama’s popularity has gradually declined since he was inaugurated, in which each separate pollster is shown as a separate line in order to highlight trends:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/11/another_look_at_obamas_job_app.html
I suspect his numbers are going to start to ease off a bit again, after a few months of hovering around 52-53%.
Labour’s fiscal stimulus was so successful they are legislating to ensure it cannot be repeated.
Enshrining 50% reduction in deficit in law = negligence
Bloody hell Ireland have scored.
Evening all
Re: 163 - I rarely agree with you, Stuart, but you’ve gone up several notches in my estimations after that.
Re: 377 - Indeed and it’s also strange how some Conservatives laud WSC when they tried to de-select him in 1939. As a liberal, I have mucvh to thank him for as he did so much to keep the Liberal Party going in the 1950s when other Tories wanted to kill it off.
As for matters American, given the huge set of expectations that were around in November 2008, it was perhaps inevitable there would be a sense of disappointment or anti-climax. Elements of the GOP have skillfully played on these but that’s a long way from mounting a coherent and credible challenge to Obama in 2012.
I’m not sure today was so bad for Brown. I well remember poor Stephen Dorrell (remember him) being wheeled out in early 97 to argue what a success the Major Government had been. Had sites like pb.com been around then, I’m sure the reaction would have been pretty vitriolic.
As OGH has said, this is now the tedious endgame - Brown, like Major, has to be positive even though he must know as Major would have done after the Wirral West by-election, that the writing is well and truly on the wall.
SthLondon Nick: “The Labour govt imposed prescription charges and increased rationing…”
My God. Is that your summation of the 1945 Labour government?
Note to self: Never trust a tory.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5549818/britains-awol-ally.thtml
Obama is starting to tick me off.
380 My Dad told a similar tale, Nick, but with an extra twist.
He was in North Africa (Desert Rat) and said that there was a very literate and well-produced paper produced by the troops and distributed to them, free of charge I guess. It was strongly left wing in political orientation. He reckons it accounted to some extent for the left-leaning tendencies of the troops returning home, himself included.
He voted Labour in the first post-war election but was outraged by the economic measures imposed by ‘Austerity’ Cripps, particularly the massive hike in tax on cigarettes.
I believe he never voted Labour again.
385. I’ve no real problem for ryanair. They make their money through catching out dozy people in my experience. I flew to Dublin a few months ago and it was £21 return with the visa booking fee. I think they get a rather unfair bad press on the whole.
396. Taking to writing posts to yourself. Oh dear.
394 - Thats 8/1 bet I have on RoI winning tonight is looking good.
375- These numbers largely ring true in the current climate. For one thing, the Dems have always been much more tribal than Republicans, much more willing to vote “D” no matter who the candidate is. But another factor is that the Dems were out of power for so long, or at least felt that they were out of power for so long, that they came to be willing to do anything to regain power. The Republicans, meanwhile, had power but were disappointed by what was done with it by the people they voted for. I suspect these numbers will shift back a bit over time (but the Dems will remain more tribal than Republicans for the foreseeable future).
369 S&S. Yes, I’ll stop at this point. BTW, do you recognize this from the Daily Kos playbook?
“As for what happened in the recent guberatorials, look at VA, it appears that Deeds lost out on the base by trying to go too far to the right. Well, that serves him right and a salutary lesson to those next year, make sure you please the people who vote for you, you will lose if you try and please those that don’t.”
Compare and contrast:
“Kos, DailyKos: this is what Democrats better take from tonight: 1. If you abandon Democratic principles in a bid for unnecessary “bipartisanship”, you will lose votes. 2. If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes. 3. If you forget why you were elected — health care, financial services, energy policy and immigration reform — you will lose votes.”
It seems factions of the Dems don’t want the independents. Let’s hope they hold good on this right through the mid-terms.
254 - tim complaining asbout repetition….
LMFAO
“Re: 377 - Indeed and it’s also strange how some Conservatives laud WSC when they tried to de-select him in 1939.”
Yes, personally. And can’t imagine why they changed their mind.
401, best of luck, Mr. Eagles
387. Didn’t you think it was good? I thought it one of the best PPB’s for a long time. (Well at least since the one I did for Paddy Ashdowne!)
399 - No I think they’ve gone beyond that. Their luggage restrictions are incredibly tight. Some suitcases would come close to breaking the limit without even having anything in them.
And a genuinely fair policy would not be designed to “catch people out”, however stupid. People should know where they stand and be able to make their decisions accordingly.
406 - Thank you, I’ve had a good run on football matches recently.
The odds against Ireland tonight were very attractive. Principally because France’s manager is a (pretty funny) joke.
396 - I am well aware of what the govt did and didn’t do. However it also instructive how rapidly they dissipated the mood and goodwill with which they were elected. Lets not forget that Winston was comprehensively defeated yet shortly thereafter was back as PM. Again we have a govt that came into office with an awful lot of goodwill, possibly the most of any since the 1950s. What happened? They have dissipated it all again. Promising the earth and then delivering a small corner of a field is not the way to govern. The NHS was a good example. It was going to be the Panacea. It nearly bankrupted the nation and the austerity budget was the result. I would never be happy without free healthcare, but we don’t have it now and we never will. Let the dreamers dream, let those who are practical run things. They actually are the achievers.
398 - I worked with someone whose farther was in the North African conflict. They were having terrible difficulty getting hold of tobacco. Winston came out on a “gee them up” trip. He proceed to smoke one of his cigars in front of them. It did not go down well at all!
The daily Mail’s love affair with sarah Brown continues - apparently she “hits the right note for the State Opening of Parliament with understated elegance”
I know its bitchy but really?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1228917/Sarah-Brown-hits-perfect-note-Queens-speech.html
409, not bet on anything for ages. Fiddled with my Strictly numbers (kind of lost interest earlier and focused on F1 instead) but that’s it.
412: Why does she have a pebble on her head?
411 - To be fair, Attlee was always going to struggle to retain such support in the face of prolonged austerity and with such a formidable alternative PM over the gangway.
408. Well it’s take it or leave it. Judging by their growth there are still many people taking it in spite of their dubious tactics.
412, interesting hat. Did she lose a bet?
403- I can see where Kos is coming from. After all, he is a private citizen who sees politics as serving a purpose, and that purpose is to enact desired legislation as the culmination of a series of victories at the ballot box. He hopes to use his voice to convince the House and Senate Dems to enact as much of the Obama agenda as possible before the mid-terms arrive, after which time the congressional votes needed to enact that agenda might not be there anymore. In other words, he is more concerned with passing certain legislation than re-electing moderate legislators. I don’t think, however, that his arguments are very useful to Dems from swing districts who actually want to be re-elected next year.
412: I thought the hat was ridiculous. The rest of the outfit was OK.
412.Ted, this Mail puff pieces are just begging for us to be bitchy. I reckon we should have a competition on the most stomach churning article that the Mail team can come up with between now and the GE.
The last article having her get down with the celebs is my favourite so far. Still think Kimberley of Girls Aloud left the rest in the shade.
412 - Were Mrs Cameron and Clegg there today? Or were they too busy in the real world?
413 - Stopped on strictly, when I heavily backed Martina Hingis to win it, and she was knocked out in the first week.
Been making some decent money on X Factor too, on who will go out each week.
Though my backing of Stacey Solomon and Jedward to win outright is looking inspired now (thanks Gordon)
On flying, I think Ryanair are great. Cheap flights all over the place, lovely stuff. To be perfectly honest, I think some of the animosity to them is a little snobbish. Us poor northerners are allowed to travel as well, you know.
398. Labour worked very hard during the war to ensure they would benefit politically when the war ended.
Oh god, that hat like the outfit last week is better when it fits the person wearing it.
412. A pea on a large drum isn’t a good look by any standards.
401. TSE. I also backed Ireland at 8/1, and I apologise now for jinxing them by posting that fact here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1229024/Ruling-sees-Britain-step-secret-justice-described-constitutional-outrage.html
396. Gabble - I hate to break it to you but that was the electorate’s verdict on Atlee’s government. Stafford Cripps and austerity were just too much to bear.
Are we getting MORI tonight?
416 - Of course. Although part of it is that there are a lot of destinations for which they are the only option. Sadly that means i’ve got to fly with them this summer.
397 Whilst he goes for a jolly in China and does a mea culpa about Guantanamo, British troops are dying. Mind you Brown has given obama everything he wants and put our troops in harms way just to curry some favour (assumably for some kind of payback around the election) in the first place. You are right though Obama really couldn’t give a toss about British concerns. We should take note and stop pretending we can rely on the US to be a good ally.
425, 426
I thought she had a headache and had sellotaped a cold pack to her head
I don’t care if I am b!tchy, she is one fugly woman
427 - It’s ok, I think I jinxed them long before.
I don’t think I’ve won a bet on international football since 2004.
415 - I’m never going to criticise someone personally for trying their best, Attlee set out to remodel the country and with the NHS he did. The welfare state was expanded but was grounded in the security for hard graft model. I just think they overreached themselves badly and whilst austerity would have come, it was made much much worse. I think it is a fundamental problem for Labour. Only one period in office has not been followed by multi-election defeats.
412 Meow! I never knew that there were secret fashionistas among the Tory crowd.
Pillbox hats are actually fashionable in a retro sort of way. However, that one looks a little like a pet rock (also, it’s stuck to a metal band, and you’re supposed to pin them to your hair). It’s no competition to Jackie Kennedy, let’s just say that.
422, Hingis being axed was a bit unlucky. I was lucky I laid her so quickly
433 was being mischievous by the way before I get hounded by the ‘don’t be mean’ brigade. I have no opinion on her looks, but it was a very silly hat
419 Business like OK but “understated elegance”?
I’m trying to comprehend why the Mail does these puff pieces, broking no criticism of Sarah Brown, who is now an active political player. Is it the Dacre-Brown family friendship, with Dacre trying to balance pleasing his readers through attacking the Government by preserving his friendship by extolling Sarah?
418. S&S Good points on Kos’ motivation. But,as you point out, his motivations are not those of Dems seeking reelection in swing seats. The fact is it seems that the more of the Kos agenda that gets adopted, the more the public is turning away from the Dems towards the Republicans (even though the latter still haven’t got their house in order). Which in turn makes adopting the agenda and making it stick harder.
Many times, the best is the enemy of the good. Trying for too pure a Kos agenda might cost the Dems a chance to adopt many other items on their agenda. That’s why the term ‘unnecessary bi-partisanship’ is such a jaw-dropper for me.
437 - Fnarr Fnarr.
Though boasting about your speed when laying her, isn’t always a good thing.
436, I’m not into fashion, but feel no compunction about mocking something that looks ridiculous. Labour’s moral standing, for example.
Sarah may well be a lovely lady but her fashion advisor is a card carrying Tory who enjoying his work.
Re: 411 & 415: WSC did very little in fact during the initial period of the Attlee Government and it was the work of a new generation of Conservative MPs such as Harold MacMillan, Rab Butler and even a young Ted Heath who forced the Tories to ditch their antipathy to the welfare state.
It was a form of decontamination as we’ve seen more recently which enabled the Conservatives to go to the electorate in 1950 and 1951 backing the central tenets of Beveridge and the welfare state but offering to run them better.
441, if I hadn’t laid her so quickly she would’ve cost me money.
I hope the full F1 lineup gets revealed soon. 4 odd months away, but with a potential Anglo-German title race it could be damned tasty. I just hope we keep our GP.
Having said that I am not too keen on Sam Cam’s cropped trousers but long legs like that can get away with almost anything.
435 - I don’t think any government could have been popular in 1947-50. The legacy of the post-Beveridge government was always going to be a generally positive one but the socialists went too far. Remember what party Beveridge was from. Labour have claimed all the positives from the post-45 Parliament for 64 years without admitting any mistakes. The fact that the Tories regained power so quickly and kept it so long passes too many blinkered Labour people by.
415 - Thats an intersesting discussion.
All the counterfactual stuff concentrates on what would have happened had Hitler won, but what would have happened if Churchill had been deselected by the Conservative establishment?
Without Attlee and Greenwood then Chamberlain and Halifax would have had their way but where would Churchill have been if the appeasers had pulled him down - Would he have gone over to Labour and finished the Tories for ever, branded the party of appeasment?
I say that as someone who would have voted for Thatcher rather than a Benn ledd pro Junta Party, and would never vote Tory so long as there was a chance of the Hurd/Halifax wing wanting to rig foreign policy in favour of the genocidaires.
Its not an accident that the Conservative Party now has a charity project in Srebrenica
445 - Fingers crossed on the GP.
McLaren v Mercedes is mouthwatering. Though I expect Ferrari to throw a spaniard into the works.
439.Ted, the poster that shall not be named spotted this little PR campaign in the Mail a long time ago. Sarah is apparently a close friend of Mrs Dacre, and its very obvious that some poor wee journalist at the Mail has been given the weekly duty of penning these articles. The one last week was hilarious, seriously, I reckon they were laughing in the newsroom as they penned it.
Way back during the McBride scandal, didn’t it come to light that the Sarah Brown PR campaign was also part of the strategy?
418 Sensible in some ways. Right wing parties have a rotten record of repealing left wing legislation, so there’s something to be said for getting as much through as possible when you have the chance.
This is one of those stories that makes you chuckle
A rabbi financed a drug-dealing business and offered cocaine to girls in exchange for sex, a court heard.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8367085.stm
449, be interesting to see how the cars compare early on.
Brawn were supreme to begin with then tailed off due to swiftly deciding to focus on the 2010 car.
McLaren started off a dog and then became the best car on the circuit.
Red Bull were in the top 2 cars all season.
Ferrari started badly and had a smallish purple patch before declining (I think that was due to moving development to the 2010 car).
Fewer rule changes make the odds on a Brawnesque super surprise less likely.
444 - Agreed. Of course it was MacMillan who gave the “Winds of Change” speech. Sometimes the maxim that “Only Nixon could go to China” keeps being prove (see Reagan & Gorbachev). As for anecdotes I like the one about Winston & Attlee:
After a bruising HoC session, Winston went to the gents. Attlee was in there already. On entering Winston went to the other end of the toilets. Attlee protested that it shouldn’t come to this, it was all just a debate etc. Winston responded that every time Attlee saw something large he nationalised it and he didn’t want to take that chance.
Your Tory glasses missed a very simple point regarding 2000 and 2004. It was the government which was in the lead and many Labour voters stayed at home in protest, particularly in 2005 because of Iraq.
If Labour was behind in either of these elections they would not have stayed at home.
451: how depressing. Not much point voting to kick Labour out if we still get stuffed with all their appalling laws.
451 Sean Fear. Yes, unless it provokes a quicker and deeper backlash.
450. But if she was really that smart a PR woman, she’d know that they make her look rather ridiculous… at least if she’s looking to go into the charity line after her de-accession, or whatever you call it when a First Lady who isn’t actually a First Lady is deposed. You’d think she’d want some photos of herself with scrubbed-up poor children or opening a wind farm or something.
452 - I know we should be used to religious figures doing cocaine and prostitution, but that is a great Rabbi pose.
448 Peace with Hitler might not have been unpopular in the Summer of 1940. Hitler would have offered reasonable-sounding terms, and if people like Halifax, Chamberlain, and Butler had been advocating such peace, I think that relatively few of the public would have stood out against it.
I don’t think Britain’s subsequent history would have been a happy one, but I don’t know what the political consequences would have been.
Christina Sandra and Sally. I’m sure we all look forward to photos of your stunning selves and impeccable fashion sense. I’m sure we’ll all be too polite to make comment.
453 - I think the no refueling rule will be to the benefit of Hamilton, is why I’ll back him to win next year
450 - Chistina in libel shocker.
Who’d have thought it.
458 - I kind of feel guilty about posting that link now. It will only fuel Francis’s insanity.
458 tim, that pose seems ripe for a caption competition. “Hey, you Jimmy”
440- Well, I won’t question whether Kos is right or wrong in preferring big victories today (enact the whole left-wing agenda ASAP) over smaller victories achieved in baby steps (enact the agenda in bits and pieces so as not to scare centrists). But he does seem very willing to sacrifice Democratic seats in Congress next year as the price to get more done now.
But on the issue of “bipartisanship,” I think a lot of people don’t see what that really is about. It isn’t just useful as a campaign slogan, it is a tool that a majority can use to maintain power. If a serious effort at bipartisanship is at least attempted, centrist voters are reassured and the governing party can avoid a serious backlash. Put another way, if voters “feel” as if Washington is operating under two-party rule, they feel much more comfortable. But if they feel as if one party is running roughshod over the other and basically ignoring the interests of half the country, they tend to react harshly.
I think that the Dems came into this year so confident of their supremacy, they didn’t see any need to even pretend to be bipartisan. This was a serious political error and it is probably too late to do much about it before the mid-terms, even if there were any will to do it (which there isn’t, by all appearances).
459 - Which Tories would’ve rebelled against a deal with Hitler?
Churchill obviously, but there would’ve been more.
412. Crikey, the Queen really is getting on now. Who else will shed a tear when HM passes away?
461, hmm. Not sure I agree, actually. He shreds tyres more than most (not sure if they still need to use 2 types per race) which may mean he has to pit more often.
His odds are also quite short. I’d be more tempted (not backed anyone yet) by Rosberg.
458. I bet Robert de Niro gets to play him in the movie….
468 - Yes, forgotten about the tyres factor, however I do still think he’s one of the very few overtakers on the circuit.
463 - All religions have leaders that get involved in coke and prostitutes, not just the Jews.
Remember Jimmy Swaggart?
His son Donnie then announced to the stunned audience that his father would be temporarily stepping down as head of Jimmy Swaggart Ministries for “a time of healing and counseling.”
But just to keep francis happy, it was the Jews that made Swaggart do it
459 Sean Fear. Try Richard Harris’ Fatherland for a reasonable ‘what if’ scenario of Britain’s role post-war had a peace been negotiated in 1940.
Re: 459 - I think it would have depended entirely on the outcome of the Nazi-Soviet confrontation. A Nazi victory in the east would have made Britain’s position far more difficult as she would have faced a German-dominated Europe. Perhaps a British Government in the 1950s would have had little choice but to join the Axis.
A Soviet victory would have probably led to the Red Army conquering most of western Europe - whay would they have stopped at the Elbe or Berlin with no Western Front ? With Stalin’s aid, I suspect even Franco would have overthrown leaving Britain facing a Communist-dominated Europe.
Could the two ideological adversaries have destroyed each other leaving the British and Americans to pick up the pieces ? Maybe.
Strangely, the more I think about it, and it’s almost obscene considering the millions dead, we might not have done too badly with things turning out the way they did.
464/458. I bet Robert de Niro gets to play him in the film…
I reckon the Ferrari will be fast next year and my tip for the F1 will be Mr Alonso.
459 SeanF
That reminds me of an observation of a historian friend to the effect that at the start of WWI, Britain’s involvement had great popular support, whereas our involvement in WWII had little such support initially. In retrospect, our involvement in the former appears to have been an unnecessary mistake, but involvement in the latter by contrast should have been swifter and more decisive.
I always think of this when I read polls telling me how unpopular the Afghan War is. Perhaps it is because I am with the very small minority that not only thinks we should be there, but with much greater force.
Oh Rog. Stop being so pompass.
The Mail appears to be taking the p1SS or at least inviting others to.
Its odd.
465 S&S Seems we are in complete agreement.
Yes, that one is really taking the mick - it’s something like 130km away! That’s the same as Southampton airport rebranding itself as serving London……
460 Roger, it’s a ridiculous hat, you know it’s a ridiculous hat, I know it’s a ridiculous hat, the person who wrote the story knows it’s a ridiculous hat, the readers will know it’s a ridiculous hat.
469, he’s a good overtaker, but Button and Vettel are pretty good as well. I think there are new aerodynamic rules intended to promote overtaking as well. At somewhere like Spa or Interlagos it should work, but doubt there’ll be much at Monaco.
474, possible, but I hope you’re wrong.
Tim - the Labour opposition hardly covered themselves in glory pre 1939 consistently voting against increasing the defence budget and absolutely overboad against any rearmament. Churchill was a lone voice in the Commons.
Attlee and Labour were staunch in May 1940 and deserve every credit fo their stand.But history records that it was the Tory young turks who for a vital Cabinet Meeting Churchill brought into attend who swung it for WSC as much as anything.Roy Jenkins Biography of WSC is outstanding especially on that period.
Of course many in the Labour movement were opposed to a War with Hitler until he invaded the Soviet Union and then all of a sudden it was OK to fight Germany.
362.God, you give the creeps, but not surprised that you jumped on that post. I had a feeling you would respond in just this way.
Mike, if you have any problems with my post then delete it. The last thing I would ever want to do is get PB.com into any trouble. Would be the first time I have ever had a post moderated unlike Tim!
ANy see the Labour election broadcast.
My parents who have always voted Labour at Westminster were bemused…..whats big role had Labour got to do with apartheid they said.
They said it was a very odd broadcast and asked what did it have to do with the Queens speech and the present.
Also they asked why are they claiming to be out of power and the underdogs when they have been in power this long?
I was baffled, Labour seemed to be claiming things it had no direct impact on from days when film was stil novelty……these are very bewidering times
480 - Agreed on both points, especially the latter, especially because Alonson is an utter cock.
464 - Did you notice that the Rabbi’s business partner was a Nasir Abbas?
Sad that cocaine and prostitution are illegal, they could’ve been a peace movement.
484 - If I didn’t bet on c0cks I’d never bet on football
484, also, worth remembering that Vettel was the most consistent qualifier of last season by some distance. Partly due to his car being consistent (unlike either Brawn or McLaren), but also testament to his own reliability (in that particular regard). Qualifying will be more important, obviously, in 2010, so will probably be an advantage for Vettel.
481 Peter Buss
If you have not read it, Five Days in London 1940 is a superb account of the decision not to sue for peace:
http://www.amazon.com/Five-Days-London-May-1940/dp/0300084668
477- One of the most recent signs that the Dems haven’t taken many lessons from the off-year elections was in a story about Obama’s planned “jobs summit” for next month. Who did the Dems bring in to help them develop some ideas on the jobs front? A labor union boss and a guy from a liberal Washington think tank.
485 - I noticed that too.
Time for my liberalism to be fully expanded, we should legalise drugs and prostitution.
483. Labour no longer have anything to say to you, your parents or anybody else.
481.
Carla Bruni might have managed to look chic wearing that absurd hat. But not Sarah Brown.
486 - Very true. Means I wouldn’t have bets involving X factor or the Labour party either
490 - Arafat, Clinton and Barak would have had no problem reaching a deal in a Camp David filled with cocaine and prostitutes.
Daily Mail - Downfall of Mr McPoison: How Gordon Brown’s king of the dirty tricks was sent spinning out of No10
“Labour insiders believe Mr Brown’s public image would be much worse without McBride’s advice; the magazine PR Week put him in the top ten of Britain’s spin doctors, alongside Matthew Freud and Max Clifford.
So trusted was he by the Prime Minister that he was asked to deal with personal PR of his wife, Sarah Brown, and had been responsible for a campaign to raise her profile to try to boost Mr Brown’s flagging popularity.”
494 - So a spitroast would solve the Arab/Israeli conflict? I like that thinking.
491. They are not voting Labour anymore but won’t vote conservatives (though the believe hold certain conservative views like immigration etc).
467 Not sure you meant this.
“Crikey, the Queen really is getting on now. Who else will shed a tear when HM passes away?
notme”
482 Sorry Christina. Didn’t mean to offend.
You have relatives in Malawi?
495 There’s a really horrific threesome going on in that photo accompanying the McBride of Frankesntein article….
471 - It’s Robert Harris, but i find “Fatherland” the least convincing of all his books. I think when he wrote it perhaps less must have been known about what was known at the time about the Holocaust.
495 - Christina, most of what I’ve been moderated for has been far more factually based than that.
But nice to see a bit of edginess rather than the greatness of Dave stuff.
499.Peter, that was addressed to tim@462.
New thread up
503 Oh, sorry Christina.
Guess it comes from having been married for many years. I automatically feel guilty.
488 It is indeed a great book Tim.
501 alex. Thanks for the correction. IIRCC, the book starts rewriting history at around May 1940, so before the Holocaust in the form of death squads and mass concentration camp exterminations started. Thus it is not too much of a stretch that it rewrites what the West knew about the holocaust too. But I agree, killing on that scale would have leaked.
But in any case, that was not the aspect of the book I was recommending. Rather, it was the standing of the British Empire in a post-war world that I think was interesting. Namely, emasculated and irrelevant, leaving Russia, Germany and the US as the powers.
511 - Would a post-war GB, with empire left intact, and not bankrupted by a war which they avoided, have been that emasculated?
512 alex. It could have been if there were Versailles-like terms imposed on its post Dunkirk and all of continental Europe lay in Hitler’s hands.
469 I think that the political consensus would have been to accept peace with Hitler. Overall, there would have been a significant minority of MPs, of all parties, who thought that peace with Hitler was shameful, but the majority, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, would have accepted it.
As a backbench MP, Churchill was simply a voice crying in the wilderness, and would have remained so, in any office other than Prime Minister. As Prime Minister, he inspired people to fight on, when their inclination might well have been to cut a deal.
All that Hitler would have demanded at that stage, was European pre-eminence. He would probably have accepted nominally independent regimes in France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark, and Norway. Those would have seemed very reasonable terms to many British people.
War with Russia would have come sooner or later, probably accompanied by the extermination of the Jews. His “allies” would have been expected to fall into line.
512 Even with little material loss, Britain would have suffered a massive loss of prestige. I imagine that Canada, Australia, and New Zealand would have gone their own way. South Africa, riddled with Nazi sympathisers at it was, would have broken away, and Indian nationalists would have been massively emboldened.
The Queen’s Speech was good for the Tories.
What was in, was good for the Tories.
What was left out, was good for the Tories.
The Queen was good for the Tories.
All queens are good for the Tories.
To sum up; good for the Tories.
Stinky Brown is good for NuLabour - the bums deserve to be thrown out for their hapless proposals and for slaughtering the innocents in Iraq and Afghanistan. Brown will help with that.
The British people will elect a new clean government full of adulterers and expenses cheats, and they will obviously bring our boys back from harm’s way. Anyway, they’ll need them when the riots start over Cameron’s destruction of the British state.
Wonderful country, wonderful politicians - and all good for the Tories.
By and large, people have made up their collective minds now. The only votes still up for grabs are a few undecideds and some of those who have been voting for “others” since the expenses scandal.
The mood in the country is for a change of governing party. People are determined to be rid of Mandelson and Brown and evidence suggests they are increasingly likely to vote tactically to remove Labour, rather than the other way around as has been the case in the last 3 general elections.