Who’ll get blamed for this lunacy?
October 29th, 2009
Could it affect the outcome in the top betting constituency?
The one thing that makes me more furious than anything at the moment is the crazy new law that’s going to impose a hideous regime that will keep adults and children apart.
In the name of trying to control paedophiles our stupid MPs have allowed this over-the-top ill-thought out piece of legislation to be passed and now local councils, like Watford, are making their own preparations.
Some of my fondest memories from the time my three children were young was taking them down to the park to play in the playground.
Now future parents are going to be denied this thanks to MPs who failed to realise that their primary job is to scrutinise legislation and councils like Watford that have come forward with gross interpretations.
Quite smartly frightened minsters have postponed the full impact of the new regime until after the election. But that’s not going to stop the media finding one quirk after another that MPs, if they had been doing their job properly, should have raised when this was going through the house.
Rod Lidddle on his blog is calling for a mass campaign of civil disobedience and is offering a bottle of champagne for the best idea on how this could work.
Which brings us to what will happen in the Watford constituency at the general election. This is the three way marginal that Ladbrokes say has seen the most active betting. Could the Lib Dems, who have high hopes in the town and control the council, find that their task has been made harder?
Watford Betting:-
Ladbrokes CON 10/11: LD 11/10: LAB 7/1William Hill CON 5/6: LD 5/4: LAB 7/1
Victor Chandler
CON 11/10: LD 5/4: LAB 5/1
PaddyPower CON 4/5: LD 11/8: LAB 11/2
HAT-TIP to AntiFrank on the previous thread.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Labour!
Zweiten
It’s a Lib Dem controlled council.
It’s just another example of a peedo behind every bush.
According to Iain Dale, the Mayor in charge of this madness deleted a blog post/Facebook posting she wrote yesterday defending it. However, she has not deleted her tweets…
http://twitter.com/MayorDorothy
Margaret Thatcher?
1/3, the Left will.
The Council has issued a statement on its website:
http://www.watford.gov.uk/ccm/content/strategic-services/home-page-content/statement-about-harwoods-and-harebreaks-adventure-playground.en
I don’t think this will be enough to bring the story to an end.
@5:
Today, Mayor Dorothy will find that she has no practicing friends.
Here is the URL of the deleted blog post
http://dorothythornhill.mycouncillor.org.uk/2009/10/28/adventure-playgrounds-no-adults-please/
Its one idiot council.
Stupid legislation, but it does seem that these aren’t park playgrounds: http://bit.ly/1rEbWC
The Illiberal Democrats!
Watford = nailed on Tory gain (even allowing for their previous candidate going stark raving….)
@11:
That is, I’m sure you’ll agree, unfortunately symptomatic of a far deeper malaise.
LibDem councils = left wing politcally correct lunacy
Oddly enough it’s Ed Ball’s who is responsible…
and Ed might also be in the frame to appear in court if the case against Downing St regarding McBride goes to court.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6122756.ece
Reading this “Shortlist” freebie magazine and there’s a bit by Gary Gibbon on the TV debates.
Apparently the word “Chum” isn’t understood by most people and is evidence of a privileged background……
Of course the Tories would allow kids up chimneys instead.
13 What’s the difference between Labour and Lib Dems? Ans the same but spelt differently.
“I don’t think this will be enough to bring the story to an end”
Yes, it misses the point quite spectacularly, doesn’t it.
The council should be blamed. You can interpret legislation or rules in a number of ways, should you do so in the guise of an eejit, then so shall your constituents see you.
No doubt, however, it will be used as a stick with which to bash the Labour government. The stick will be shaped like a gilded lily.
@17:
Oddly, the political figure with whom the word is most associated is Eric Pickles.
Dorothy does
“offer to go out and shoot myself”
in her blog.
Show of hands perhaps?
I nominate p1ssing on Rod Liddle as act of civil disobedience.
17 Pedigree brand managers will be most surprised.
On a more serious level, thank goodness this crazy Ofsted nonsense doesn’t apply in Scotland. Youth organisations like the Scouts already ahve waiting lists running into the thousands because adults are being discouraged by this sort of over-zealous nonsense from volunteering for youth organisations and the like.
We certainly need a reasonable level of control and checks but in most communities outside major towns and cities where everyone knows virtually the colour of underwear being worn by everyone else, people who shouldn’t be near children are well known.
The concept of an “adventure-free adventure playground” is a little difficult to get the head around…
When I think of the Very Dangerous Things we did as kids with all matters sharp/ hot/ deep/ fast/ explosive, and we (mostly) survived to grow up to become normal baby-eating Tory bastards…
21 Dyed - No, Labour are 100% to blame for this appalling piece of legislation. Councils just respond to government diktats.
24 “I nominate p1ssing on Rod Liddle as act of civil disobedience.”
Can I set fire to him first then?
423- yes, I think most people want no change. Just leave things as they are for a decade.
4 - “It’s just another example of a peedo behind every bush.”
Donald Rumsfeld?
FPT - given PtP’s stakes on a Green victory in Brighton Pavillion I feel inspired to offer to lend a hand with canvassing etc.. to help a fellow poster land a long(ish)-shot bet!
18 as long as the width of the chimney complies with EU regulations
Since it is well known that Tories eat babies, sending youths up the chimney means they are presmoked.
30
28 Disagree - not every council has interpreted things thus, it is an eejit Lib Dem council which has decided to use the rules to this end.
Whether or not ’some checks’ are a good thing in general is a different debate to ‘most stupid way we can find of applying these check requirements’ for me.
Blaming Labour is letting a pathetic council off the hook for incompetence.
Drivel like this falls into the category of things which everyone, everywhere, bar none, agrees is stupid, yet it happens anyway. It is really annoying. Why can these people not see that what they are implementing is plain daft? The logical extnesion of this uiltra-cautious approach is that we are all to be banned fom rgetting out of bed (alone) in the mornings. Grrr
We have made several friends locally from meeting other parents in parks. It never remotely crossed my mind that they - there with their own children for Christ’s sake - could have any malicious intent.
I despair.
I guess we also have to question how far will this madness spread ? Other councils, no doubt, will be concerned they also be affected by the law. What next, remove children from parents at birth. I am amazed this isn’t against article 8 of the Human Rights act 1998, The right to family life.
“ARTICLE 8
THE RIGHT TO FAMILY LIFE
Everyone has the right to respect for his family and private life, his home and his correspondence.
This is a very important article for children and young people who might be separated from their parents and brothers and sisters or who are in care or custody.
You have a right to family life with people you are close to, as long as this will not cause you any harm. Under this article you also have a right to privacy.”
Well, we know where pedos hide.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8331388.stm
The elephant in the room. But political cortrectness is more important.
30. It’s a frightening thought that somewhere in an English-speaking country, there is almost certainly somebody called Peter File.
“Blaming Labour is letting a pathetic council off the hook for incompetence.”
As a wider point, this attitude is behind the general lack of enthusiasm for really advanced localism. It’s hard to push something like that when you know you’ll get the blame for the activities of a looney council that has nothing to do with you.
34 Watford residents may blame the LDs, everyone else will blame Labour.
It’s the same as the police officer child-minding story - I have no idea where they live, I do recall the idiocy of the decision…
A real question, not a rhetorical one.
Isn’t today the day all the councils and other nosey parkers get the same right to invade your property and life without a warrant?
Something I read somewhere that an order in council will extend the powers under the terrorism act in this way.
I may have this wrong as I have no reference.
Who is it in Labour who is the architect behind the whole PC laws we now have? Brown? Harman?
Going to be very difficult to turn the clock back now. Time for a new country to live in.
Great work being a British journalist. First you get to sell a bunch of papers whipping up ignorant hysteria with dubious claims about the paedophile threat, then you get to sell more papers whipping up more ignorant hysteria with dubious claims about what spineless politicians did in response to your original batch of ignorant hysteria…
Great work being a British journalist. First you get to sell a bunch of papers whipping up ignorant hysteria with dubious claims about the paedophile threat, then you get to sell more papers whipping up more ignorant hysteria with dubious claims about what spineless politicians did in response to your original batch of ignorant hysteria…
37 http://www.myspace.com/mrpeterfile
Been out of the country for a week, but returned to discover that Britain is still in recession! Utterly shocked I must say, not least because a regular poster on this site - who gives the impression of knowing a lot more than the rest of us - said the the economy would have returned to growth in the second quarter:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/10/the-speaker-election-is-labour-backing-margaret-beckett/#comment-1107560
Mike - Ladbrokes have Labour priced at 7/1 to win Watford, NOT Evens as shown in your intro.
39 yes, quite agree.
40 Plato, the government get the blame for everything, some of it fairly. Twas ever thus.
46. lol. Good find. Let’s just reprint it:
“BBC reporting that economy will recover six months before Darling said it would.
Growth in Q2.
by tim June 10th, 2009 at 4:17 pm”#
tim = ludicrous, puffed-up, weird little twat
41 Witan - this is it
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article6892830.ece
47 - PfP, you get any takers @ 10/1 yesterday?
What do you call a man who’s attracted to swimming trunks?
A speedo-phile!
I’ll get me coat…
Truly terrible headlines for Brown.
“Britain now the only major economy still in recession”.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6895362.ece
FPT PtP 433: Unfortunately I haven’t got a spreadsheet (since I work in the software industry I use pencil and paper), but I see quite a lot of common ground with Peter the Punter. My constituency bets are:
Conservatives to win: Winchster, Redditch, Totnes, Nuneaton, Keighley, York Outer, Birmingham Hall Green [longshot at 16/1], Sleaford & N Hykeham, Edinburgh SW, Lancs & Fleetwood, Harrow East, Bolton West, Copeland, Wells, Norwich South [bit of a long-shot at 4.5/]
LibDems to win: Bristol West, Brent Central, Leeds NW, Oxford East, Easteigh, Machester Withington, Rochdale
Labour to win: Morley & Outwood, Exeter, Southampton Itchen, Blackburn
Greens to win: Brigton Pav
SNP to win: Glasgow East
I also have some hedged positions: Poplar & Limehouse, Watford, Westmoreland & Lonsdale, and a punt on UKIP winning Buckingham (which I’ll probably trade out).
Most of the above were placed earlier this year when the odds (especially on Conservative victories) were better than they now are.
50. Surely, “Michael Jackson - This is it”
52, what do you call a Viking brewer? A mead-ophile!
55 Get your coat!
54 Thanks Richard. Much common ground indeed!
For those interested,I’ll copy below my previous post.
52. One drunken Christmas, a few years ago, my friends and family tried to devise the most absurdly unpopular new charity.
“Blind Dogs for the Guides” was one suggestion: blind puppies for lonely girl guides to make friends with
Then we realised that would probably be really popular. So I suggested:
“Speedos for Peedos”: a charity that would hand out really tight swimwear to kiddiefiddlers, so you could see when the pervs were getting an erection near the swimming pool, and you could take action.
Shall I get my Burberry cap and coat?
The dictionary:
chum |tʃʌm| informal dated
noun
a close friend.
• a form of address expressing familiarity or friendliness : it’s your own fault, chum.
verb ( chummed |tʃəmd|, chumming |tʃəmɪŋ|) [ intrans. ]
be friendly to or form a friendship with someone : they started chumming around in school.
ORIGIN late 17th cent. (originally Oxford University slang, denoting a roommate): probably short for chamber-fellow. Compare with comrade and crony.
In the 50’s and 60’s it was a working class word and I heard it often as I grew up as people would ask ‘is he your chum’, or, ‘Where are your chums?’. ‘He is quite chummy with them’.
Surely that is why the dog food was called ‘Chum’?
And it is no surprise that an old idiom remains strong longer in the north where they still use viking words, don’t they. Like ”ee-by-gum’ and ‘ gannin’ ‘ and ‘gadzooks’ and such like.
49 seanT
Are you happy that David Cameron is listed as a supporter of the violent anti-English UAF?
Here’s the link for proof http://www.uaf.org.uk/aboutUAF.asp?choice=4
54, 58 - I’ll do mine when I get home tonight. I also have a fair amount of common ground with both of you.
54 - “Labour to win: Morley & Outwood”
I mean, how could you?! I wouldnt want to even touch the money that I won on such a bet!
FPT…..
Earlier, somebody (St John?) suggested comparing notes on bets struck on the GE by PB punters. Here, fwiw, are my bets to date on individual constituencies.
I’m not sure about the Esther Rantzen one, but mostly the odds have moved in my favor.
Lads Brent central LDs £60 @ 6/4
Lads Brighton Greens £40 @ 4/1
Sky Brighton Greens £25 @ 7/2
Sky Brighton Greens £25 @ 9/2
Skybet Bristol W LD hold £40 @ 8/11
VC Bristol W LD hold £33 @ 8/11
PP Bristol W LD hold £111 @ 4/6
VC Bristol W LD hold £55 @ 8/11
WH Cheltenham LDs to win £100 @ 2/1 -
Lads Copeland Tory win £50 @ evens
VC Dagenham Tory win £20 @ 5/4
Sky Eastleigh LDs £40 @ 5/6
Lads Gloucester Tory win £65 @ 8/13
VC Harrow East Tory win £70 @ 4/7
VC Hampst & Kilburn Tory win £40 @ 13/8
Sky Leeds NW LDs to win £100 @ 11/10
VC Luton North Tory £30 @ 5/6
Lads Luton South Tory £70 @ 4/7
Lads Luton South Esther Rantzen £20 @ 16/1
Skybet Manch With GE LD hold £30 @ 5/6
Sky Manch With GE LDs to win £40 @ 5/6
Lads Oxford East LDs £40 @ evens
VC Norwich South Greens £10 @ 25/1
Lads NW L’ster Tories £130 @ 8/13
Skybet Rochdale LD hold £30 @ 5/6
PP Rochdale LD hold £60 @ 4/6
PP Rochdale LD hold £60 @ 6/4
Hills Sefton C Tory win £55 @ 8/11
Lads Torbay Tory £100 @ 1/2
Lads Watford GE* Tory win £50 @ evens
WH Watford GE* LD win £140 @ 7/4
Sky Watford GE* LD win £60 @ 2/1
VC Watford GE* LDs £80 @ 13/8
WH Westmoreland & LDs £65 @ 8/13
WH Winchester GE Tory £100 @ evens
You may notice that there aren’t too many Labour buys there.
Sorry if the layout is a bit odd. Blame excel.
40. Liberal Democrats = Labour for Middle Class People in the Private Sector.
Otherwise? There is no difference.
Surely every single individual school is governed by an independent board of governors, completely separate from the Council?
On Morley & Outwood: I’d be wary from local and national reasons.
Nationally Balls is relatively well-known and unpopular, and if he gets linked to the CRB bullshit it’ll damage him seriously.
On a local level, people seem to dislike him. Well, persons I’ve spoken to. Not canvassed the council estate nearby which should be a Labour stronghold.
Plus the Tories view it as a winnable seat, apparently.
61. What I find so sickeningly transparent is the list of “supporting bands” at the bottom.
D1cks.
Are they saying those not on the list *DO* support fascism?
Bands: just play some music and stop Bonoising.
59 SeanT - “Speedos for Peedos”: The French got there first. They won’t let men who are wearing baggy swimming trunks into public swimming pools.
Seriously.
52. Q. What do you call 66 percent of MPs? A. Greedophiles
63 Neil - Well, it’s a question of betting with the head not the heart. And also reducing risk by not having all one’s bets correlated.
But I’d be delighted to lose that one!
Waugh reports £1k cheque paid by McBride to Nadine.
On topic, I can’t believe that I have the honour of pointing out that the article refers to council-vetted “play facilitators”. What’s wrong with the herd today?
69. Truth is stranger than fiction indeed, or at least creepier. Bizarre.
Talking of fiction, I have accidentally come to Bangkok without my flipping Sony Reader. It has brought home to me how much I rely on it. Like forgetting yer iPod.
Gah.
OK I am off to watch Battlestar through my jetlag. Sawadeezzz.
Well now we see why Chris Morris’ ‘Paedo-geddon’ show really upset ministers so much - not because it was tasteless, but because they recognised in it both themselves and the policies they wished to implement.
New Labour and the culture they have created (which is adhered to by both the Lib Dems and sometimes sadly the Tories too) are simply beyond parody.
What do you call the population of Amsterdam?
Weedophiles
Anglo-Saxon history fans? Bedeophiles
Dog walkers? Leadophiles….
This is turning into this…
Thanks Plato. A bit scary that. Put that with the other control systems, cameras and parliament being no longer sovereign etc etc …….
We should be afraid, very afraid.
69. What? So I couldn’t use a French swimming pool if I had no speedos then?
What if I get a boner because of some leggy Blonde?
74 - Check out the French Swimming pools Sean, so passe your party game.
I’m off to the delights of Bury St Edmonds and Southwold for the weekend have fun.
Oh, and do post any updates on the great Immigration Conspiracy, or ask francis to do it for you.
75 of course, parents would now be unable to take their children to one of Brass Eye’s safe stadia as they would now be barred from entry.
Its nonce sense, the whole thing
72. That’s a grand result for Nadine.
78 - What if I get a boner because of some leggy Blonde?
Think about some of the people on here
http://www.mingers.com
The ISA will turn out to be Labour’s Poll Tax.
Legislation which was nodded through, if not covertly supported, by the Opposition but which causes public outrage.
76
that is brilliant!
79 - Is “I’m off to the delights of Bury St Edmonds and Southwold for the weekend have fun” code for something?
69.
The French prefer an Eifel Tower in a tight tent?
Can anyone explain what all this faux pretence is about Khameroen not wanting Blair as EuroPresident? They are like two peas in a pod politically, personality wise, even down to Norwefian Blue Dave remodelling his hairline to match Tony’s. DC backed TB’s murderous war in Iraq to the hilt and TB would doubtless reciprocate in spades when the time came. They each have identical views on Europe ie none at all but will say whatever they think pleases the most people at any given time. And both would be happy with the real PM PM being placed at the top of a greasy pole. The only quetion would be how he would be secured there and how much force to apply.
72, £1k? Peanuts, surely?
76, mad women who love Scottish MPs: Reidophiles
@85:
It doesn’t sound like a prime choice for a dirty weekend.
Maybe it’s a secret swinger hotspot. I hope tim’s remembered to pack his PVC dogging gear.
@86:
It’s not about the money, it’s about getting McBride to admit fault in a court of law. Now she’s got an admission of guilt, she can go after Number 10.
86 - Depends, if
1) She’s got him to pay her legal costs, as well as his own, Libel Lawyers bill in an hour, what the average MP claims in a year
2)Perhaps this out of court settlement is merely a stepping stone for a bigger payout, whilst she’s taking on the two others in the libel case, Dolly Draper and HMG.
Southwold’s delights are supplied by:
http://adnams.co.uk/
Bury St Edmund’s delights are supplied by:
http://www.greeneking.co.uk/
This story just appears to be typical Mail “looked what the PC police banned” rubbish coupled with lazy churnalism across the board.
Give it a couple of weeks and the Winterval stories will start.
85 Is “I’m off to the delights of Bury St Edmonds and Southwold for the weekend have fun” code for something?
Possibly. Involving sugar beet and pigs, of which there are plenty in that part of East Anglia. Must be a family thing.
89/90, aye, perhaps you’re right.
89/90 - Exactly, there have been cases in the past where they have accepted absolutely nominal amounts like a £1.
Getting the pay out in this case has to be just right, too little and it seems like the McBride offense wasn’t really very serious, too much and Dorries can be painted as a greedy MP on the make out of a bad situation. The whole thing seems like a stepping stone to greater action planned by people a lot smarter than Nadine.
So let me get this right.
Our Govt has been spending at a faster pace per head than any western economy yet we are the only ones not yet out of recession.
Poor old GB he must be very glum.
Poor old Tim and Gabble.So must they.
74 Tim - I am sure Francis will think that going to bury St Edmund who was an English Saint according to legend is very appropiate!
McNulty on Sky, I don’t think he sounds to contrite.
— BREAKING NEWS —
A POLICE helicopter was deployed to Honiton after a vulnerable man went missing from his home last Thursday afternoon.
Police received a call at 2.15pm, expressing concern for the welfare of the 47-year-old.
When officers attended an address he was not there and a search was launched.
The man was later found.
http://is.gd/4HaGP
87. Ulrika’s boyfriends: Breedophiles; Catholic priests Creedophiles; Pastry chefs filiofiles?
98 to = too, lol Kate Burley just said the same thing..
51 Aaron - not yet but it’s early days. Why, are you interested? If so I’m happy to confirm that I consider you a “UK based PB punter of repute”?
69 - The French speedo thing is very strange. They claim it is for hygeine reasons. It could be dirty wearing shorts but a kid peeing in the pool is just fine!
However, as a half-way house you can get short “shorts” made out of the same speedo material which go slightly down the leg. They are also acceptable! I wear that kind all the time when I go swimming.
99
by their roving reporter Phil Space I assume?
Witan @ 41: yes - the following bodies
All Local Authorities
Gangmaster Licensing Authority
NHS Counter Fraud & Security Management Service
Gambling Commission
Rural Payments Agency
FSA
Vehicle & Operators Services Agency
Transport for London
Royal Mail
Medicines & Healthcare Products Agency
now have all the powers under the Proceeds of Crime Act.
Still if they ever turn up at my house I’ll demand to see a certified copy of their CRB and ISA check. To protect the kiddies……
John R said: “Of course the Tories would allow kids up chimneys instead.”
Of course - the the chimneys are too small for adults and thus constitute an adult-free zone making it safe for children. Also, those children employed as chimney sweeps will not hang around on street corners or drop litter on the pavement.
As a policy it is just win, win, win.
Make you proud to be blue!
That blog post from Dorothy has been found - teh interwebs are tricky…
http://heresycorner.blogspot.com/2009/10/adventure-playgrounds-why-we-say-no-to.html
99. When I saw the line about the man not being at his official prime address when police called I thought it was more McNulty! The way things are heading, Mad Nad will soon be more than able to afford to employ him as a nanny!
Only slightly OT
With the return of The Thick of It, to our screens, now seems an appropriate time to point out the genius of Armando Iannucci in book form, in particular The Audacity of Hype, which is a collection of newspaper articles published since 2002.
It is full of biting satire about all aspects of modern life, but includes a useful dictionary of new words…
Bi-husbandrist. Man who has 2 families, neither of whom is aware of the other
Toss jockey. A person who can use the phrase ‘branding’ in everyday conversation without any display of self-consciousness
Also, Twelve Ways in Which Things Could get Worse for Gordon Brown
7. Harriet Harman admits having run over a badger in her car and then driving off.
3. A decimal point has been in the wrong place at the Treasury for the past twenty-three years and we’re actually a third-world economy.
Spooky!
NO hat tip for me Mike, I posted that last night!!
107, indeed. In general, the number of exclamation marks used tend to be inversely proportional to the intelligence of the author.
Mike, if only these new totalitarian laws from Labour would stop paedophiles, but they won’t. They would have done nothing to save the girl killed in the lorry in Northamptonshire last month. They would have done nothing to save the girl killed in Co Durham after an internet chat room meeting this week. They would have done nothing to save Baby Peter, and on and on…
All they will do is make it difficult to attract adults to do anything with children and will close down several sports clubs. Just complete and utter lunacy. But then what can you expect from new Labour.
Gordon Brown is facing growing embarrassment over Britain’s recovery after it became the world’s only major economy still in recession as America returned to growth in the third quarter.
US gross domestic product (GDP), a key measure of a country’s economic strength, grew by 3.5 per cent between July and September — at the top end of economists’ forecasts.
America joins Japan, China, Germany and France as the world’s leading economies that have emerged from recession.
Britain, the world’s sixth largest economy according to the World Bank, was widely expected to have recovered in the third quarter.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6895362.ece
T’internet is 40 years old today. awwwww
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8331253.stm
107 Plato
I can see why she deleted it.
I too would be horrified if I wrote such a thing - what would the national press make of such appalling exclamation mark abuse?
114 And just think - alt.books isn’t the most expensive domain name
115 I don’t know what you mean!!!!!!1!1111!!11!!
111 MD
!
I guess there’s a grim irony that, within the last few months, a nursery worker and friend(s) have been caught having abused many children.
Would the laws/rules described above have stopped them?
TONY Blair’s hopes of becoming President of Europe have been dealt a huge blow after a leading party at the Brussels parliament said they would not back him.
The head of the Social Democrats Martin Schulz said because Mr Blair is British he does not meet the right criteria for the powerful new European parliament role.
…
Mr Schulz said a High Commissioner — essentially a foreign minister — from Britain would be “acceptable as he would automatically be committed to all EU political policies”.
But he added that he did not think David Miliband was up to the job.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2704947/Blair-in-EU-President-blow.html
119 Clearly not since Vanessa George was CRB chked.
I saw a quote from an ACPO numpty earlier that said something like ‘criminals were people that didn’t have a criminal record once’.
So you see - we’re all criminals just awaiting a collar.
FFS - what is going on?
Just seen this sobering peice on the web
http://su.pr/7qZXA9
At least their President goes and pays his respects.
Why doesnt ours?
Mr Osborne said the growth in the US economy shows that the government’s plans to take Britain out of recession have “comprehensively failed”.
He said he was “very pleased” by the growth in the US economy, but added: “It begs the enormous question - why is Britain among the last economies in the world to still be in recession?
“Britain’s recession plan has failed, Gordon Brown’s recession plan has failed - he has not seen this country through the recession.”
He said there currently two major differences between Britain’s economy and those of the that have re-entered growth: “Credit is not flowing, second there is no confdence - those things are the responsibility of government.”
“The government’s economic policy has completely fallen apart.”
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/osborne_us_growth_shows_britains_economic_policy_has_comprehensively_failed.html
“Why doesnt ours?”
Because we don’t have one?
119 “Would the laws/rules described above have stopped them?”
WE know it didn’t; they had been CRB approved.
124-Ok but you know what i mean.
Its too important an issue to take the pi** out of.
99 I think it was Mark and lard that used to have a feature called “vague news”. That is a total steal. Probably a bet was involved, somewhere along the line…
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Other Charges £ 2,534.44 +
Premium Charges (exc. last week) £ 0.00 =
Total Charges £ 3,188.25
Total Charges % 19.06
Max possible Premium Charge £ 158.01
I don’t know what are the “other charges” — they are not commissions?
On the website, they also say that we al have an £1000 “allowance” — the first £1000 of premium charge is not supposed to be actually charged.
However, last week I made a profit £901.61 with the settling of the German Election.
Gross PL £ 901.61
Commission Generated £ 22.31 +
Other Charges £ 0.00 +
Total Charges £ 22.31
Total Charges % 2.47
Max possible Premium Charge £ 158.01
Premium Charge [pre-allowance] £ 158.01
Available allowance £ 0.00
Premium Charge Applied £ 158.01
Remaining allowance £ 0.00
As you see, I don’t appear to have any “Available Allowance”…. I wonder why.
I’m sorry to bother the community with this, but it really distresses me… and I suspect I’m not the only successful punter in that position… stjohn? Richard Nabavi? URW? our Peters? Jan?
I have some of the best and worst bets going.
BEST BET ** Sold the Big3 at a combined 636 for £30.Worst case scenario Win £144.Normal scenario Win £780.
WORST BET ugh. Sold Plaid Cymru at 4.37 average on the Betfair Line for £203. Expectation= a Loss of around £153.Tell me I don’t.
Osborne is an idiot. If the Tory policies had been followed we would most definitely be still in recession. However, I agree we should have followed the Tory policies as the current Govt policies will just result in a W recession as the economy crashes once the stimulus is removed. Better to put in place the foundation for the economy to grow and in the long run growth will be much higher.
In this case we have simply printed money to spend and lend, this is a big tax on savings and will lead to much higher interest rates in the future. Small growth today or much higher growth tomorrow.
122 - To Quote a former Chief of the General Staff,
“Gordon Brown doesn’t understand defence”
Mike,
Interesting story. Shocking. How many paedos are there in Watford anyway?
Erratum. Worst case scenario WIN £120.
Another great bet. LAB Seats 150-199 inc. £120 @ 4-1.
Another terrible bet. LD Seats 20-39 £1180-300 all-in.That dates from the days the LDs Spread was around 45.
130
“If we had followed tory policies”
You need to give a start date for Labour to have changed tack and followed tory policies!
If they had always followed tory policies, a la 1997-99, we would have had lower debt and a shorter recession IMHO. But we will never know, and all governments are guilty to a certain extent (whatever Osborne says) of not “mending the roof while the sun shines”. Labour were guilty in spades however.
The “right” course of action will be judged by history, and it’s too early to say now. Suffice to say that the debt burden loaded onto us by Brown and Darling in the name of “stimulus” will be a millstone round our necks long after the recession is over, and I am far from sure this was the right path for the long term.
But politicians don’t do “long term” especially in the year before an election…
128 Philippe - I haven’t traded enough to be hit yet, but I do find the whole thing very strange. Firstly it’s hard to know whether you are close to being hit - if I go to that page, it just says “Your account has not incurred Premium Charges. If you become eligible to incur Premium Charges in the future, we will contact you before any charges are paid”. Secondly, surely they need punters prepared to bet large amounts in order to maintain the site’s liquidity for everyone else?
102 - No, I’m not interested, just amused!
GB & Milliband on SKY at news conference. .. grinning away. Sigh Questions re Blair and presidency.
McBride’s costs £2500 on top of £1k according to Waugh.
Here is the Mayor Thornhill’s response to all this hooey:
When Is A Playground Not A Playground
http://dorothythornhill.mycouncillor.org.uk/2009/10/29/adventure-playgrounds/
‘ . . What I have taken from this is the importance of the accuracy of language and the power of the web - none of these news stories would have appeared if we didn’t refer to our adventure play sessions as adventure playgrounds.’
Bloggers need to go on Journalism 101 courses to learn to t=check their stories before they publish ‘em.
“we would most definitely be still in recession. ”
We are definitely still in recession……
138 Plato - If so, that means he caved in immediately. You don’t get a libel lawyer to sneeze for much less than that.
I’m annoyed how Brown has just said that Britain will support Blair. he doesn’t have MY support! He should’ve just said that Blair will have HIS support.
What is Gordon wibbling about? He’s just answered a question with about 200 words of filler.
GB talking pure sh!te re Iraq not being an issue iro Tony Blair’s suitability.
135 — Very strange indeed. When the premium policy was announced last week, I ask them to send me some info, such as how many market did I play in, etc. They sent me an Excel sheet with every possible details on it.
But I did not worry coze the original policy was to tax only those successful punters who had bet on more than 250 markets in the last 60 weeks. I just had to keep below that deadly ratio.
But this month they changed the rule, and made it over the whole lifetime of the account…
I asked them today if they could give me some grace, 25 markets i could bet without being taxed, or something. They declined…
I was planning to upload at least 7k in november to put it all on Tory.Overall.Majority.
Now I obviously just can’t do that…
I guess it’s really time for me to open an account with SPIN! Can we upload and download money with them (using a Visa credit card) as easily as with Betfair?
141 I once used an employment law solicitor and she cost about £500 an hour so me thinks you are spot on!
Doesn’t bode well for the other actions in play.
**** CONSTITUENCY BETTING ****
64. Ptp. Not my idea to so this. I think it was ScottP. Anyway, I have annotated your post with my constituency bets and prices, on the right of yours, in capitals. Plus my others, listed below.
“FPT…..
Earlier, somebody (St John?) suggested comparing notes on bets struck on the GE by PB punters. Here, fwiw, are my bets to date on individual constituencies.
I’m not sure about the Esther Rantzen one, but mostly the odds have moved in my favor.
Lads Brent central LDs £60 @ 6/4. LIBDEMS @ 7/4.
Lads Brighton Greens £40 @ 4/1. LIBDEMS @ 9/2,4/1,9/4.
Sky Brighton Greens £25 @ 7/2
Sky Brighton Greens £25 @ 9/2
Skybet Bristol W LD hold £40 @ 8/11. LIBDEMS @5/6.
VC Bristol W LD hold £33 @ 8/11.
PP Bristol W LD hold £111 @ 4/6
VC Bristol W LD hold £55 @ 8/11
WH Cheltenham LDs to win £100 @ 2/1 -
Lads Copeland Tory win £50 @ evens.
VC Dagenham Tory win £20 @ 5/4
Sky Eastleigh LDs £40 @ 5/6. LIBDEMS @ 1/2!
Lads Gloucester Tory win £65 @ 8/13. TORIES @ 4/6.
VC Harrow East Tory win £70 @ 4/7
VC Hampst & Kilburn Tory win £40 @ 13/8
Sky Leeds NW LDs to win £100 @ 11/10
VC Luton North Tory £30 @ 5/6. TORIES @ 5/6.
Lads Luton South Tory £70 @ 4/7
Lads Luton South Esther Rantzen £20 @ 16/1
Skybet Manch With GE LD hold £30 @ 5/6. LIBDEMS @5/6
Sky Manch With GE LDs to win £40 @ 5/6.
Lads Oxford East LDs £40 @ evens. LIBDEMS @4/6!
VC Norwich South Greens £10 @ 25/1. LIBDEMS @ 9/4.
Lads NW L’ster Tories £130 @ 8/13
Skybet Rochdale LD hold £30 @ 5/6. LIBDEMS @ 4/7!
PP Rochdale LD hold £60 @ 4/6
PP Rochdale LD hold £60 @ 6/4
Hills Sefton C Tory win £55 @ 8/11
Lads Torbay Tory £100 @ 1/2
Lads Watford GE* Tory win £50 @ evens. TORIES @ 11/10 and 5/4
WH Watford GE* LD win £140 @ 7/4 LIB DEMS @ 7/4.
Sky Watford GE* LD win £60 @ 2/1
VC Watford GE* LDs £80 @ 13/8
WH Westmoreland & LDs £65 @ 8/13
WH Winchester GE Tory £100 @ evens. TORIES @ Evens.”
PLUS others for stjohn
ABERDEEN SOUTH, LIBDEMS @ 5/2
AMBER VALLEY, TORIES @ Evens and 4/5
BATLEY AND SPEN, TORIES AT 10/11
BEDFORD, TORIES @ 1/2
BETHNAL GREEN & BOW, LABOUR @ 1/2
BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD TORIES @ 15/8
BIRMINGHAM SELLY OAK TORIES @ 6/4
BUCKINGHAM, UKIP @ 4/1, 3/1
CHORLEY, TORIES @ 5/6
COVENTRY SOUTH, TORIES @ Evens
EDINBURGH SW, LABOUR @ 4/6.
HYNDBURN, TORIES @ Evens
MORLEY AND OUTWOOD TORIES @ 7/2, 3/1
NUNEATON, TORIES @ Evens
POPLAR & LIMEHOUSE, TORIES @ 11/4, 2/1, 7/4, 13/8
REDDITCH, TORIES @ 4/6
WELLS, TORIES @ 1/2
145 — Sorry Richard. It should have read :”When the premium policy was announced last YEAR”
Miliband smearing the Tories again, refusing to apologise…
I thought Milliband looked a little uncomfortable talking about the Kaminsky issue in a European setting. Anyone else agree?
149 And it doesn’t sound any more convincing, does it?
I can’t ever recall a time when the FS stooped to such risible levels.
and frankly who except the Guardianistas care?
150 LTL. Yes - he seemed uncomfortable to me too.
150 Yup - he was shifty and serve him right.
149 - And to think the perceived wisdom was that the Tory Party were the “Nasty Party”!
Brown & Miliband - what a pair!
Like Laurel and Hardy watching these two.
Looks like @DanHannanMEP has taken to Twitter. This should be a laugh…
Seeing Brown and Miliband on stage at the moment really makes me look forward to when they are booted out. How they got into positions of power is just mind boggling.
How come no journalists have asked why Tony is a fab choice for the EU but Brown’s followers brought him down?
*scratches head*
Sorry I missed Miliband looking uncomfortable.
158 Plato
Indeed… I would have loved for Gordon Brown to explain why Tony Blair is, in his opinion, bad material for a PM, but good material for a President.
152/153 - yes, sorts of shows it for what it is, for domestic political gain only.
120. I said it all along, Blair is most unlikely to get the job.
However the reasons for not giving him the job are quite telling: “because he’s British”??? So you have to be signed up to every European project before you can be a candidate? You aren’t allowed to have a divergent opinion?
This means Britons, of any stripe, can never aspire to hold the highest office - president - in our own polity. That’s nice. We’re a bit like blacks in Old Alabama then.
It’s crunch time. This is getting ridiculous. It’s so ridiculous it’s worth saying again:
With the Lisbon Treaty we have apparently signed up to a constitution which creates a superstate, a constitution which nonetheless bars any British people from hoping to lead that superstate. We have disenfranchised ourselves in the most outrageous way.
Enough of this putrid bollocks. It’s all in or all out. We either sign up for the whole deal - euro and everything - or we leave.
Enough.
Hopefully, the more ‘Blair’ swamps the real business, the more they will see the problem with Blair being the Pres.
Everything is always about Tony. Not sure that the other leaders will like that. Most leaders have big egos. But no one has a bigger ego than Tony.
163 I’d prefer an invisible Belgian myself with rimless glasses and a grey suit if we have to have an EU Prez.
BBC bod doubting Gordo claim that he speaks to Tony every week about things…
139 - That’s not really consistent with the deleted blogpost linked to by Plato at 107. Is the reason to stop perverts (as suggested by that blogpost) or to stop adults getting in the way (as the Mayor now suggests)?
164 ….who brings good chocolates to dinner… Gets my vote.
145. Philippe. I’m not aware that I have been affected by Betfair’s new ruling. But I don’t bet in many of their markets. I have a sizeable position for a Tory overall majority but otherwise fairly small beer.
Disgraceful change of policy by Betfair in my view and likely to be counter productive.
165 Indeed - and why would he?
Tony left office 2 yrs ago. Can’t Gordon cope without his helpful advice ? Pfft.
As this is the first EU Presidency I suppose we have yet to find out if it is like Tory leadership contests or Labour ones [ie the front runner never or always wins].
164 - *gets all defensive*
What’s wrong with rimless glasses?
167 - wouldn’t mind Belgium being a net contributor of chocolate.
re 119 Rob no it wouldn’t have prevented at all.
Someone doubting Gordon’s word? Heaven forfend.
145 Philippe - I find SPIN very easy, in fact I got £1000 credit so I didn’t need to deposit to get started. (However, as you’re not in the UK that might not be available to you). The downsides are: they don’t have many political markets, they have an annoying habit of sometimes suspending the markets for quite extended periods, and the spreads can be quite large relative to the underlying market. On the other hand you’re not dependent on having other punters prepared to provide the liquidity as on Betfair.
171 I have them myself, but there is something Sven-bank managerish about them
169 - I think it probably goes something like this,
“Please Tony help me out here, those two posh t##ts are beating me up again”
“….you have reached the answer phone on The Great Tony Blair, World Statesman, Bringer of World, Wars, I mean peace, please leave a message after the tone if you are interesting in hiring me for public appearances, otherwise bugger off…unless you are offering me the EU job…..”
Bolton can’t hide his fondness for Blair.
I see that Nick Palmer is bleating about hard-done-by MPs again. He is obviously missing the £250 “petty cash” he used to take quite regularly - no questions asked, no invoice needed - plus the £300 for food he used to claim - quite regularly, no problemo - plus the total expenses claim which made him equal first for Troughing in the House of Commons.
http://mps-expenses.guardian.co.uk/labour/nick-palmer/
However, at least he is being open and transparent about where the money went:
http://mps-expenses.guardian.co.uk/page/383200/
Sorry if already posted but I missed the this from the Sun last night. Just about as bad as you’d expect.
Deadly Cuts
“SAYING sorry sounds distinctly hollow after Government penny-pinching caused the deaths of 14 servicemen.”
also a comment on the Watford council issue..
“Barmy ban”
IT’S like a scene from an Orwell novel.
Parents are banned from supervising their own kids in playgrounds.
Watford council claims it is following Government instructions that adults on council sites must have criminal records checks.
Sense goes out of the window as every parent is branded a potential paedophile.
What next? Babies removed from mothers in maternity wards?”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/244723/The-Sun-Says.html
I would like to bet about £ 12k on the Tories winning an Overall Majority.
Where can I (apart from betfair)?
My only criteria is for the market to have odds analogous to betfair’s and to be able to upload and download the money with a Visa credit card.
paulwaugh tweets
Gordon Brown says its’ in Britain’s national interest to have T Blair as EU Prez. Implication: Cameron is unpatriotic
181 That’s the line Bolton took - without question of course.
Update on McBride/Nadine from Waugh
“…”The reason why this is so significant is that I absolutely 100 per cent want it to be known that every word that was written in those emails was a lie,” she tells me.
“I don’t think the general public know just how low the office of Number 10 has slipped in terms of its morals. It’s not just dysfunctional, it’s way down in the gutter.”
UPDATE: It seems that the costs (agreed to by Mr McBride) are in the region of £2,500, so the grand total will be £3,500. I hear that this is half of the costs once proposed.
It also seems that no writs, as such, have been served. Legal letters have been sent/handed to respondents, although the status of the cases against Number 10 (in the form of Sir Gus O’Donnell, Cab sec and McBride’s employer) has Derek Draper remains unclear. It appears that Mr Draper has not yet responded to the letter he received.
The case against Mr Draper may be difficult. Although he famously responded “Bloody brilliant” to one email containing smears, he did not reply to a later email containing the allegations about Ms Dorries. If he forwarded the Dorries email, however, that would be a different matter I guess.
FURTHER UPDATE: Some of Mr McBride’s money will end up in Guido’s pocket. As part of the £2,500 costs, it seems that Paul Staines (the man behind the beard) charged Ms Dorries’ lawyer Donal Blaney £75/hour for serving the legal letter on the former Number 10 man.”
Thanks Richard. I’ll definitely open an account tomorrow.
180 Philippe - Ladbrokes odds are current 1.33, about the same as Betfair once you allow for commission.
Re the EU president, I wrote this ages ago:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/02/21/is-it-time-to-be-betting-on-president-tony/#comment-598876
I note two things. First, Tony Blair has come in over the last two years, but only slightly, while Jean-Claude Juncker has drifted out. Secondly, because the electorate is very small, there could be big winnings among the long shots. Timothy Garton-Ash was supporting Martti Ahtisaari this morning, and other candidates from smaller countries look like good bets to me.
“If he forwarded the Dorries email, however, that would be a different matter I guess.”
Hmmm…..
Did SPIN had markets for the German Elections and the Irish Election for instance?
..er.. the Irish referendum…
*go take cold shower*
@183:
Donal’s representing Nads? Ha!
188 Did you make a killing on the Iranian elections or am I confusing you with another punter?
“It appears that Mr Draper has not yet responded to the letter he received.”
Him and the misses are probably still trying to work out what the long words, like libel and slander, mean!
192 Perhaps Mr Draper should read his latest book, or perhaps not if the reviews are anything to do by
http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/1848500440/ref=dp_top_cm_cr_acr_txt?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1
194 - Ho ho ho, 1 5-Star rating, claiming all the negative reviews must have been written by Tories!
76 So is a Roman Catholic priest a creedophile?
195 And funnily enough ‘Anna Price’ hasn’t reviewed any other titles
Some fascinating insights into the Obama campaign in excerpts of a new book by David Plouffe
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1932963,00.html
195, Brown’s Wartime Courage book now has 52 tags.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/tags-on-product/0747596077/ref=tag_dpp_cust_edpp_sa
192 Plato
That’s a particularly unfortunate turn of phrase you’ve used there…
Back on topic, I read that since 2002, no fewer than 280,000 “racist incidents” have been recorded by teachers. Principally, this involves primary schoolchildren calling each other names.
195 - review by someone with total number of reviews = erm 1.
the comments under that review are full of ‘nice try Drerek’ .
And according to a comment on the one 5-star review, its author, one Anna Price, has never reviewed anything else on Amazon, and her name is an anagram of “inane cr@p”.
Philippe@128: you’re probably ok from those figures, at 19% you’re very close to their threshold and thus PC charges are never going to be very much.
However, what you do need to be wary of is any long odds winners you might potentially have. Succeed with those and you make a lot of profit but pay little commission, and thus the charges/gross-profit % will drop from 19%, and you’ll end up paying a lot more PC (eg 20%-17%=3% is of course treble that of 20%-19%). This was what caught me - I tended to use betfair mainly for long odds tennis correctscores because in other markets bookies like pinnacle have better prices. Hit two biggies in a short period, and I ended up at 6%, and thus 14% PC.
This is the irritating nature of the PC - variance from successful conventional betting can trigger it to very high levels. Betting at lower odds isn’t a problem cos those intrinsically have lower variance, and similarly the more you use betfair the lower your variance.
Thanks Richard.
But Ladbrokes allows only a CAD 2,076 bet — about £1000…
I’d like to bet much much more…
From another review This book contains sections entitled “Telling the truth”, “Acting your age”, and “Being your own worst enemy”. Really, it does.
God almighty, it’s true, it does….
I’m just thinking…. : My girlfriend might open an account on betfair…
199 My favourite review
” 1.0 out of 5 stars not fit for purpose, 30 Aug 2009
By N. Papworth “Lofa” (Kent) - See all my reviews
This book refused to stay on the nail in the smallest room, despite repeated attempts to keep it there. The perforations are almost none existent making removal of pages difficult. By far the most disconcerting aspect is that if you happen to read a bit, you soon become convinced that it has already been used.”
Back on topic, what is this nonsense being spouted by the council? Of course the legislation doesn’t say that - if it did every other council in the country would be in court charged with failing to implement the changes.
As usual the government will get the blame. Its not a Labour council doing something thats not in the law passed by the Labour government, but it is of course the fault of Labour directed personally by Mandy. Or thats how the story in the Daily Mexpress will read.
147. **** CONSTITUENCY BETTING ****
Yes, it was my suggestion, but I failed to articulate it properly. What I hope to see is whether the collective wisdom of the PB punters is better than either the bookies or the pollsters.
What I envisage is a spreadsheet (or similar) of constituencies showing current incumbent, expected poll result, expected bookies result, and PB betting.
For example, Edinburgh South West is Labour incumbent, poll possible Tory gain, bookie expected Labour hold, and I have bet on a Tory gain.
On the night we could then see who was closest to the actual result.
Perhaps someone has the inclination, opportunity and smarts to set something like this up.
Andrew. I agree.
But “not very much” can very relative.
My first PC was just a little less than the rent I’ll pay next month for a fantastic top-floor corner flat in Bangkok…
207: Yes, that seems to be the common answer.
There are other ways though - basically if you make a lot of +0EV bets, you pay a ton of commission without making any profit, and raise that all important % above 20%.
208 -
keyboard now covered with coffee, thanks Plato.
What are +OEV bets…?
Nick Griffin scared to come to Springburn?
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland/British-Noshow-Party-as-Nick.5776294.jp
O/T Bernie Ecclestone closes door on Donington for British Grand Prix
Formula One boss Bernie Ecclestone has confirmed there will be no British Grand Prix at Donington Park next year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/motorsport/formulaone/6461070/Bernie-Ecclestone-closes-door-on-Donington-for-British-Grand-Prix.html
It is another black day for Gordon Brown. The financial news from America, contrasted with continuing decline here, indicts Brown’s recession strategy. Playing the long game, Osborne is being vindicated, and Guido is correct that the ongoing UK recession negates Labour’s attack line on Osborne: the novice has trumped the alleged master.
More damaging though is the resurfacing of Damian McBride and the ‘omerta’ of Brown’s inner circle, with its sordid and cynical connotations. The news that Nadine Dorries will receive £1,000 from McBride reflects poorly on the Prime Minister. Worse still, there is possibly more to come – Dorries has two suits outstanding, against Number 10 and Derek Draper respectively. Whether it is the economy, his impotent leadership, style of government or all three combined, Brown cannot sustain consistently negative headlines as he nears his electoral high noon.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5486438/road-to-perdition.thtml
Iain Dale gets it wrong about Watford’s supervision of children’s playgrounds:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/watfords-liberal-mayor-what-iain-dale-didnt-report-16690.html
No worries for Watford GE LD backers!
213 I have your Bower book here and waiting for posties to pack it in before dispatching it - I can’t imagine how many things will get lost in the system.
Am just about to start View from the Foothills by Chris Mullin - if you fancy that too, let me know and will send too.
216, utterly unsurprising. It’d be a travesty if we don’t get one elsewhere, probably Silverstone, though.
208: Plato
brilliant!! i love the interweb
219. OT, I got mail this morning. It was return letter to one I posted last Friday.
Postal strike?
Sad news
Norman Painting, who played Phil Archer in “The Archers” has died aged 85
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8331558.stm
209 - Not so. The very existence of this insidious pair of databases (CRB and ISA) means Councils and other organisations will be tempted to demand these checks ‘to be on the safe side’.
The only way of stopping this nonsense is to scrap the whole thing, lock, stock and barrel. It should never have been introduced in the first place; it makes the Dangerous Dogs Act look like a piece of extremely well-thought out legislation. The difference, though, is that the Dangerous Dogs Act didn’t threaten the normal fabric of society, and the well-being of children, in the way that this does through the knock-on effect of criminalising society’s normal relationships.
213 - thanks Plato, we have one lost in transit so far so probably best to wait. Annoying really I should be setting up a new home network and the blummin router hasn’t arrived.
223 Phil Archer was 85??!?!? Blimey - I thought he was about 50, but he’s sounded like that for as long as I can recall.
What a pity.
I don’t listen to the Archers much but caught it the other day - what has Mr Wideboy been up to? Something about a court case?
214: sorry, EV = expected value, so zero EV is a bet that you expect to produce zero profit on average (eg 80% chance at odds 1.25). Probably most football markets without a disproportionate fan element (Man United!) tend towards this, although of course you then pay regular commission. Possibly arbing out of line books, or those that offer new account bonuses, might be a route for this to be workable, but both mean a bit of work.
Betfair have us exactly where they want us, to be blunt. They’re only going to increase charges in future, as long as there is no competition - matchbook are great for US sports fortunately, and betmaker are very well funded so probably will end up similar. Hopefully that competition will spread into UK markets, mainly their staples of football and horseracing, and force betfair to be less greedy.
214…tell us more.
227, but there’s nothing to stop someone else setting up other exchanges (I know a few exist already) and just charging less commission. 20% is ridiculous.
226 Stopped listening to it yrs ago, so I cant help you.
NJ-Gov
It’s next tuesday…
This Sunday, on the final weekend of the campaign, the president [Obama] is returning to New Jersey for two events to try to pull Corzine over the finish line…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/28872.html
Hank Paulson has used some language that is rather less than parliamentary about Alistair Darling
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Chancellor-Alistair-Darling-Blocked-Plan-To-Save-Lehmans-By-Refusing-Barclays-Takeover—Sorkin-Book/Article/200910415422651?f=rss
229 I was just about to suggest the same thing - unfortunately a PB one would be packed with insider trading info!
226
Fraud of some kind.
Archers is actually doing a very well handled storyline about Alzheimer’s at the moment.
My missus listens…not me. Oh no. uh-uh. never.
well, a bit maybe…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8332445.stm
The correct response, of course, is to arrest Damian Green.
232. The comments are worth noting
Funny how the mess keeps coming back to land at the doors of Crash Gordon and his trusty sidekick Poor Darling.
The UK has the largest financial sector in the world and so alot of the mess comes to our shores. Due to a lack of supervision and true understanding of the financial markets these two buffoons in government have not only undermined our own economy but also undermined the worlds economics.
234 Ah, thanks. Yes the Jack/Peggy/shop thing is very sad and very good story wise.
I missed why Edward and his brother [?] fell out and they don’t give enough clues.
I last listened daily when Dr Someone was being investigated by the BMA [must be 90s].
How time flies
232 What is it with Brown’s Ministers? There’s a Foreign Secretary to whom diplomacy and tact are strangers, and a Chancellor who’s wound up the US? Will we have any allies left by the time Labour are booted out of government?
232. Did this happen before or after Lloyds absorbed HBOS ?
229: sure, there have been plenty attempts at competition (betdaq/betmate, mansion, betonbet, betsson, and a bazillion others), but liquidity is the killer. You need a big brand and userbase for that, and betfair have it.
The only reason Matchbook even exists successfully because they accept US customers, and betfair doesn’t (doesn’t hurt they use 1% commission on stakes rather than betfair’s 5% on profits). There’s maybe room for an Asian competitor given the humungous number of English football fans over there, the likes of SBObet must be thinking about that. Hard to see the same thing happening from one of the big UK players, because their shop-based high margin wings shield them from the full blast of internet competition.
240, but if Betfair has this silly 20% charge, won’t people just shift away to other exchanges?
222 It’s only when there’s a postal strike that I receive mail.
On the Watford story, this just sums up everything that’s wrong with the public sector! This stretches back to the fallout from Soham when it was revealed that Huntley had got the school caretakers job because Humberside Police had misinterpreted the Data Protection Act and hadn’t passed on the reports of the complaints about him. So the cry of “SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!” goes up from the tabloids and politicians fall over themselves to be seen to be doing something.
The public service has just 2 default settings, hopelessly lax and totally draconian. A system is brought in which is way too severe and just ends up inconveniencing ordinary people. You may ask why the civil servants and council officials running the system don’t use common sense, well they will know all too well how people like Sharon Shoesmith and Lisa Arthurworrey have been vilified for not being strict enough so they go into Cover Your Ass mode and stick rigidly to the rules and guidelines no matter how nonsensical the consequences! That way if something does go wrong they can then say “It wasn’t my fault! I just followed the proceedures!”
What’s the answer to this? I think society as a whole has to stop being so hysterical about paedophiles. Contrary to what some tabloids would have you think your child won’t be abducted if you let them out of your sight for a moment. Yes that has happened in the past but such cases are highly rare. It’s no good demanding strict child protection standards and then complaining when an incident like that in Watford happens!
By the way I work in the civil service so I’m no public sector bashing per se!
232. “The UK Treasury has moved to downplay the claims in Mr Sorkin’s book.
And officials dispute that Mr Darling used the words attributed to him by the author.”
Downplay? The wrong words? Not quite a denial is it?
One for Dave to ask at the next PMQs.
Hmmmm.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article6894497.ece
241: that was the thought at first, but it’s not happened. Few enough pay PC (they say 1% of users but it’s probably a bit more than that imo), and those that do are highly profitable so betfair figure enough of those will stay. It’s classic monopoly profits - if there was a genuine alternative they wouldn’t have done it.
238 EdP
I think it was fantastic for Britain that Barclays didn’t purchase Lehman Brothers. We saw what HBOS did to Lloyds - imagine how much worse Lehman brothers would have been.
Hank Paulson hardly has clean hands in all this.
But it’s an interesting story, nonetheless.
238 Edp “What is it with Brown’s Ministers? There’s a Foreign Secretary to whom diplomacy and tact are strangers,”
Smearing others are habits that this Govt prefers.
237
The Ed/Will storyline was quite Eastenders - Will married some woman who sh@gged Ed on her hen do - got pregnant, no-one knew whose it was, all very exciting. turns out it’s Will’s, but now she lives with Ed. Brothers not speaking now!
(I think - as I say, I don’t listen
)
Andrew,
Suppose I’ll make £7k profit in the next UK GE.
I’ll pay 5% commission : £350
I’ll then have a lifetime Profile such as:
Gross PL £ 23,731.29
Commission Generated £ 1003.82 +
Other Charges £ 2,534.44 +
Premium Charges (exc. last week) £ 0.00 =
Total Charges £ 3,538.25
Total Charges % 14.91
Max possible Premium Charge £ 1,207.92
I’ll have to pay a *premium tax* of about £ 1207, right?
If so, it does not change anything if I bet 20k at 1.35, or 1k at 7/1…
Am I wrong?
Stimulus plans don’t appear to work - in fact in the US they made things worse…
http://blog.iea.org.uk/?p=703
Oh dear.
249 Blimey!
So that’s what went on - I remember one of Eddie’s kids meeting a single mum and that was about the last I heard - so was it her that was caught snogging the other one?
*intrigue*
George on form:
“Whilst Gordon has been out and about saving the world, he seems to have overlooked the UK” [loose transcription]
Watch the Gideon count as the shepherds come out to tend their flocks.
250 *jealous*
“Some of my fondest memories from the time my three children were young was taking them down to the park to play in the playground.”
Mike, same here. This is just crazy! I don’t mind filling out endless disclosure forms when helping at the local school or youth club etc. But outlawing parents for helping each other out with lifts or a bit of babysitting is the State gone mad!
But we hit the twilight zone when parents are prevented from the simple joy of being there to catch the kids at the end of the slide or push a swing! And to be replaced by a ‘play facilitator’.
I live in a rural area, and we all rely on each to help out with transport on a weekly basis. This week alone, I have organised a couple of lifts for my kids and returned the favour for a couple of other parents. Also thoroughly enjoyed looking after my friends little girl at the last minute when an emergency came up. This is what people do in communities, and its like they are trying to dismantle and outlaw the very fabricate of the family and friends support system.
When you see how little time our MP’s have spent in Parliament over the last few years, or actually sat on the benches of the Commons while debating legislation, we shouldn’t be surprised at this ill thought and damaging legislation getting through. And as for this government, they have made it skill to shut down anything but the lightest debate and scrutiny. The Speaker, opposition leaders and all those cross party backbenchers should take some of the blame for not fighting harder to prevent this even though Labour had those huge majorities. But if any Labour MP is groaning at the lost of another few votes in the seat they are defending over this, tough, you could have done something about this and you didn’t.
266.fabricate should be fabric. Doh
251 - so what does that say about the UK economy seeing as we are still in negative territory? Scary stuff.
196 and others: Is someone who thinks the Telegraph was a lot better 40 years ago a Deedesophile?
250: urrrgh, overcaffeinated plus not enuff sleep so numbers hurt a bit, but I think you’re right - if you play only a single market during that period any winnings hurt on the PC front cos there’s no commission paid elsewhere to lessen it.
The point about variance only really matters if you’re playing 100s of markets, where short odds stuff will average out to a true mean profit quite quickly, whereas long odds would need thousands of markets played. I suspect PC is especially bad for political gamblers for that reason.
251 - On the other hand, the stimulus upswing in two quarters of 9.9% shows that, despite that sort of huffing and puffing, they are on the wrong track. Of course, jobs are a lagging indicator so that will take time and expect the usual suspects to trot out the ‘where are the jobs?’ line until that one too is unsustainable.
If you want to attack someone then attack Brown, that would be credible, as he neither stimulated nor cut back in any effective way.
“Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ is worried that the rebound is unsustainable. But please try and get some perspective. Only six months ago, we were afraid the entire global economy would be in a continued death spiral by now. It isn’t. One reason is that the Bush and Obama administrations pushed through emergency - and expensive - programs to prevent a second Great Depression. They may not be enough; and the deleveraging of the Bush debt (public and private) may take a while. But this is a real and tangible gain, given the very real likelihood of total meltdown only a few months ago. It is not cheer-leading to note that. Much much more is needed to tell if this recovery is self-sustaining. But a 3.5 percent gain is better than a 6.4 loss. In fact,
The two-quarter swing in the rate of growth of 9.9 percentage points was the largest since 1980. ”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/10/chart-of-the-day-9.html
From Mr Dale’s comments about Ms Dorothy - this is hilarious
“Do they allow this woman out on the streets these days? Is this all part of the Crazies In The Community scheme?
I quote: “I now live in Oxhey, with husband of 13 years, and fellow Lib Dem councillor Iain Sharpe, and have two lovely children, who are now adults.”. Now that says quite a lot, doesn’t it? Is she living with two people? Who’s this Sharpe fellow, or is this just piss-poor punctuation? I think we should be told. And the rest of her site is all the usual ‘Me, Me, Me, aren’t I bleeding wonderful’ bollox…”
259– You are very helpful Andrew..
I’m pissed coze had I known or even suspected that Betfair would extend the 60 weeks rule to a lifetime, I would not have played a lot of very small stakes on various hockey games when I was in Canada — for my friends are not really betting guys… and I really enjoy a bit of money rolling on a team when I watch a game.
Had I not done it, I would have only played in about 100 markets…
224. Richard: I’m actually in favour of the Dangerous Dogs Act. In fact, I’d go further…
I’m tired of going out for a walk in the park or the country only to be ravaged by some strangers dog and told “he’s only being friendly” as he bares he teeth and stamps his muddy paws all over me. They also terrify my young nephews who have been reduced to tears on many an occassion.
The owners then have the audacity to act as though *YOU* were the one with the problem. You have incurred the wrath of my dog. It doesn’t like you. You are the one with the problem!
So many dog owners are rude and inconsiderate. Dogs off leads are as antisocial as smoking in a restaurant.
Dogs should be on leads at all times in public parks and footpaths.
Just because the owners love their dog to bits doesn’t mean everyone else does.
“so what does that say about the UK economy seeing as we are still in negative territory? Scary stuff.”
I’m not sure it does say anything for any economy. It’s point is that one set of projections (ie “with stimulus”) proved wrong, but doesn’t appear to give room for the “without stimulus” ones to be wrong.
At least as far as I can see, anyway.
More from Nadine via Waugh
“…Nadine Dorries has hit the headlines for her libel payout today (see HERE for details). But before that all broke, I talked to her about MPs employing their children.
What had caught my eye was this tweet she put out:
“I’ve employed a member of my family since the day a journalist gave my researcher £250 in cash as advance payment for any ‘tit bits’ of info”
Now before you jump to conclusions that this was a mucky tabloid at work, the journo in question worked for a broadsheet diary column*.
Anyway, to cut a long story short (as Spandau Ballet would say), it seems that Nadine has literally been dining out on this story. Her researcher immediately told her about the cash he had received and they went to the Cinnamon Club restaurant and spent part of it on a slap-up meal.
Ms Dorries makes a serious point too. On the face of it, MPs employing their children seems even less defensible than employing their spouses.
But the Mid-Beds MP says that she employed her daughter Philippa (as office manager) because she can trust her utterly with confidences.
“It’s not just confidentiality, its about your life, your privacy too. You know that you can trust your family with even the small things that would, in the hands of a diary, be used against you.”
She says that her daughter is on unpaid leave (to visit Australia). As her PA is on maternity leave, her other daughter, Jennifer, now also works in her Commons office.
The MP stresses that some non-family PAs and researchers can be equally trustworthy, but there are other advantages family employees can bring, such as working anti-social hours in close proximity to an MP.
“They go the extra mile. But there is another advantage. My constituents love Jenny and Philippa because when they speak to them they know they have my ear and whatever they say will be passed directly to me.”
FOOTNOTE*: I’ve asked the man in question and he has denied the allegation. Ms Dorries found his response hilarious.”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/10/nadine-dorries-defends-family-employees.html
*** Betting Post ***
Just noticed an interesting new market on Paddy Power’s:
BNP votes at the next General Election
Applies to the total number of BNP votes at the next General Election according to the BBC.
500,000 to 1,000,000 4/6
Less than 500,000 11/8
1,000,001 to 1,500,000 4/1
More than 2,000,000 8/1
1,500,001 to 2,000,000 10/1
267 - Any idea how many candidates they intend to stand? Unless it was more than double the last number (it might well be) the 11/8 on less than 500,000 looks very good value.
267. Less than half a million would be my bet there. 192,746 votes last time and next to no money to campaign with.
267 - Under half a million at 11/8 is the value bet there.
People will be looking at the Euros and using that as a baseline, but the BNP were on the ballot everywhere in May. To get on the ballot everywhere in May will cost several hundred thousand in lost deposits aside from the logistical effort of finding ten people willing to be named on the nomination, which remains a serious issue for them.
If I had to stick my neck out, I’d say they’ll field 250 candidates and pick up 450,000 votes.
267. Slightly tempted by the 1 million+ option even though it’s unlikely.
After all, one million people already *HAVE* turned out to vote for them before and the General Election will have a higher turnout than the EU elections.
What if they do it to send a message to Labour?
270. That’s actually a very good point Sir Norfolk.
I guess it depends entirely on how widely they field candidates.
How many candidates did they field in 2005 ?
Shame tim is off the plot.Last sighted somewhere in Suffolk.
Once again that hideous overround is very off-putting.
272 I heard 500 candidates a la UKIP - may be BNP ramping…
273 - I think it was 119 candidates, losing 85 deposits. You should also remember that they presumably picked what they expected to be their 119 best seats (or thereabouts) so diminishing returns and higher risks of lost deposits kick in.
“I’m tired of going out for a walk in the park or the country only to be ravaged by some strangers dog and told “he’s only being friendly” as he bares he teeth and stamps his muddy paws all over me. ”
I say : have some fun, bring a gun or some fancy “non-lethal” weapon and destroy the fuckers! (the dogs, of course, not the owners!).
Mmmmm, there must be some weapon making horrendous noise only dogs can hear…
BTW, I had a miniature schnauzer who was friendly with everyone…. except some Hassidic Jews in Outremont, where I lived. My german dog must have smelled some genuine fear of being possibly touch by his lil’ paws…
I used to take him outside for a quick walk late in the night after clubbing, when, as it happened, the numerous black-wearing Jews in my (great) neighborhood were going to the nearby synagogue at “ungodly” hours…
I would have understood if they’d shoot her… although it would have pained me considerably…
Further to 267 - I agree with Neil and woody. These are the key vote figures:
2004 Euros: 808,200
2009 Euros: 943,598
2005 GE: 192,740 (119 candidates, average 1620 voters per candidate)
So in the Euros they’ve increased their vote numbers by 17% in the Euros; they’d need to improve their GE performance by 259% to reach 500K. They might be able to do that if they double the number of seats in which they stand, but that would be a poor use of resources from their point of view. Also, are there are another 100+ seats where they’d be able to make a respectable showing?
I think you have nailed it, Sir Norfolk. The Paddy Power book does look a tad hysterical.
In any normal scenario 0-499,999 looks the bet at 11-8.
262. Plato - of course Iain Dale would not have inflicted similar “bollox” on the Bracknell electorate if he had got the nomination would he?
it would be in Britain’s interests for Mr Blair to get the role. However, support elsewhere in Europe appears to be fading.
Spain has switched sides to back another candidate, the Germans have called him ‘Mr Flash’ and a key group in Brussels today declared it would not be supporting him.
Back in the UK, former Home Secretary Charles Clarke became the most senior Labour figure to speak out against Mr Blair getting the plum £275,000-a-year role.
Mr Clarke insisted the focus had to be on repairing damaged relations with the EU and that there would be no hope of a fresh start under the former prime minister.
…
Meanwhile, Gordon Brown is facing a growing backlash over his support for Mr Blair.
Senior Labour figures said it was an outrage that the Government had decided to support Mr Blair - who has been nicknamed Boney Blair for his Napoleon Bonaparte-like ambition - without consulting voters or MPs.
They have launched a campaign to force the Prime Minister to put it to a vote in the Commons.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1223700/Tony-Blair-ready-EU-presidency-support-vanishing-Spain-Germany.html
The BNP don’t seem to find it hard to find candidates - I assume they have a very small puddle to select from though.
276. Yes. Ignore my post at 271. Wasn’t thinking straight.
273 URW - The overround is misleading, as there are only two realistic options.
276- I don’t think they stood in St Helens, Liverpool or Wigan last time, but have had council candidates since 2005, so I expect they will stand in both St Helens seats, Wigan and all the Liverpool seats. Perhaps Knowsley and Bootle too.
Casino : “I’m tired of going out for a walk in the park or the country only to be ravaged by some strangers dog and told “he’s only being friendly” as he bares he teeth and stamps his muddy paws all over me. ”
I say : have some fun, bring a gun or some fancy “non-lethal” weapon and destroy the f@#kers! (the dogs, of course, not the owners!).
Mmmmm, there must be some weapon making horrendous noise only dogs can hear…
BTW, I had a miniature schnauzer who was friendly with everyone…. except some Hassidic Jews in Outremont, where I lived. My german dog must have smelled some genuine fear of being possibly touch by her lil’ paws…
I used to take her outside for a quick walk late in the night after clubbing, when, as it happened, the numerous black-wearing Jews in my (great) neighborhood were going to the nearby synagogue at “ungodly” hours…
I would have understood if they’d shoot her… although it would have pained me considerably…
European Union socialist leaders said Thursday they were aiming to secure the post of foreign policy high representative, implicitly opposing the appointment of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as the bloc’s next president.
‘We socialists aspire to the post of high representative,’ said Spanish Prime Minister Jose Louis Rodriguez Zapatero at a pre-summit meeting of European socialist leaders in Brussels.
The general understanding is that if the post of foreign policy high representative goes to a socialist, the post of European council president should go to a conservative. And Blair would be unlikely to accept the weaker of the two posts being created by the bloc’s reforming Lisbon Treaty.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1510195.php/EU-socialists-oppose-Blair-as-European-President-Roundup
Oops, important typo in 276: improve their GE performance by 159% to reach 500K
Aren’t the BNP really short of dosh at the mo? Remember reading something about Griffin begging for money so they can just carry on. Can’t see how they are going to be able stand in more seats than 5 years ago and run any sort of campaign if that is the case.
Good old Guido! From LibCon:
‘I wanted to charge for a full fry up as well, but apparently breakfast on Damian was not an allowable expense.
In truth I did it because as Conan the Barbarian pointed out, the important thing in life is to “crush your enemies, see them driven before you”. Also for a bit of fun on behalf of Nadine to wind up the likes of you lot, she is some cougar who tips you lot over the edge of reason.
Donal subsequently pointed out that I was properly entitled to be paid as a process server. It is undeniably even more pleasing to rub Damian’s nose in it a little bit more.
I won’t bother cutting and pasting all the nonsense you and your readers posted about it not being for real, having no legal basis and that it was just a stunt etc. Damian obviously took wiser counsel than a bunch of leftie webmongs. I am sure someone will go to the trouble of providing edited highlights of the dumbwittery that was expressed on here.
It ain’t over yet either…’
284 Oi - less of the dog-shooting stuff please. Who do you think you are - Liberals?
287 He did, I suspect this was victim-playing.
I don’t know how their EU money works - anyone??
For footie followers - Marlon King gets 18 months.
291 - Not the first time he has done bird!
289. Why shouldn’t me and my family be able to go out for a walk in the open air without being attacked by a “friendly” dog?
Freedom to own a dog should not impinge on others freedom not to be hassled by a dog.
292 Mr Role Model, not.
What a chump.
274 - UKIP find it quite easy to shake down big donations as donors aren’t too worried about the publicity aspects. These are the sort of donations you need to fund an army of flag-flyers in hopeless areas. Smaller local donors want their money spent on their local man’s campaign.
The BNP have attracted, according to the Electoral Commission, barely over £200K in reportable donations since 2001 - many of them bequests (perhaps the dead care less about being named and shamed as racists as a rule). The Greens have attracted over a million and UKIP nearer to two million plus a lot more in non-cash contributions. So it’s a big ask for the BNP to fund that many hopeless candidates.
290 AFAIK he can take his salary and pay staff to do MEP business (whatever that amounts to).
He can’t channel it all directly into BNP coffers, but I guess he can employ BNP members as those office staff.
So while he can’t give his MEP allowances to the party, he can spend them on employing BNP members as his office staff, which in substance is not far off the same thing.
Blair was never going to get the EU top job after Brown decided to back him, it’s the Brown effect
I found this on the end of last week’s QT, Andrew Neil on Abbot & Portillo:
The Chocolate Hobnob and Custard Cream of Late Night Television.
Ok.I’m on at 11-8. Consider it a hedge against the BNP gaining an Overall Majority.
That was a political betting joke btw.
297. How on earth can Brown campaign for Blair when Brown undermined him for ten years and ultimately forced him aside? It makes the PM look two faced and frankly bonkers.
300- “It makes the PM look two faced and frankly bonkers.” And?
300. plus ca change ?
299 URW - Yes, me too. I can’t see those odds being available for long.
293 - Even as a dog owner (German Shepherd) I agree entirely with you. But in the event of a troublesome dog, it is most always the owner and not the dog who is to blame.
Where I live (north of Atlanta) my county has a leash law - any dog not in a dog park or in a fenced yard MUST be on a leash and accompanied.
Wonder when the nexts polls due? Think we might see a Tory lead of 20% come November.
16.Ted, well spotted, very interesting article.
295 I imagine that their candidates are expected to fund their own election expenses. They have a lot more members than in 2005, and the County Council elections this year would suggest that their support has increased since then. But, I can’t see them going above 500,000 unless they field many more candidates than I’m expecting.
297 That’s a very good point.
Wonder if Broon believes in the Broon effect? He could back one side to win a foopbaw game, for example, but bet on their opponents to win. His support would curse the former and he’d win his bet.
I suspect what would really happen is that the curse would affect the side he had really endorsed, i.e. the one he had bet on.
He would then lose his bet, but appear not to have jinxed the winner.
A new communications strategy emerges!
308. Labour should fire Brown as leader then get him to endorse Cameron.
Labour landslide !
I think this as mentioned before, but if not, Sky reporting the company which owns Thresher’s has gone into administration
John R in that case the match would end in a draw.
310. Another notch on the bedpost of Tescos.
OT The buying of sports cars isn’t the first thing that springs to my mind as a sign of OCD…
“During the trial the court heard that Sinclair was clinically depressed with obsessive compulsive traits and an overwhelming desire for order which led to excessive cleanliness and the hoarding of clothes, CDs and the buying of expensive sports cars.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/6461360/Husband-guilty-of-killing-Vodafone-executive-wife-after-affair.html
304. Thanks. But what can I do about the owner when it’s his dog attacking me?!
I think you’re absolutely right. Once had a dog badly scratch my girlfriend and shouted over to the (bald-headed and tattooed) owner to keep his f**king dog under control.
Shouldn’t have been that fruity, but I was cross. As you can expect I got a torrent of abuse, physical threats and no apology.
But the dog did piss off back to him.
304. “Where I live (north of Atlanta) my county has a leash law - any dog not in a dog park or in a fenced yard MUST be on a leash and accompanied”
Vick’s Law?
304. “Where I live (north of Atlanta) my county has a leash law - any dog not in a dog park or in a fenced yard MUST be on a leash and accompanied.”
Good law.
Without wanting to be prejudiced (in other words, I am) the scabbiest people tend to have the scabbiest dogs.
Some WWC have some absolutely terrifying dogs and will brook no criticism of them.
310 - I thought Whitbread had gone bust for a second there, then I remembered they offloaded Threshers (along with a load of other companies) a little while back.
Cyclefree October 29th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Thank you.
A typical ‘Chavs’ dog..?
http://www.glasgowsurvival.co.uk/belters/ned_dog.jpg
301, 302.
Surely Brown has somebody who has the job of stopping Brown from doing things that look so bloody odd? Does anybody believe Brown really likes Blair or wants Blair to get the job? Can you see Brown greeting Blair at Downing Street? Our EU pals aren’t daft, they must be laughing at Brown’s endorsement.
Brown would have been better off finding a way of being neutral on the issue of EU President.
315 - there was a joke when he came out of jail that he’d get a job as an assistant coach with UGA football team, because “He’d make those dawgs fight”.
289 - ‘Nuff? — Don’t you know that us Canadians, we enjoy liberal hobbies such as shootin’ our neighbor’s annoying dog, huntin’ our city’s juicy squirrels, and blood-beating cute seals just to annoy some ageing british pop-stars?..
This is all the Tories’ fault - they introduced ‘no win, no fee’ legal cases, by which anyone can raise a civil claim without financial risk to themselves. So councils naturally have to defend themselves in advance against such claims.
314 If you come across a very dominant dog [rather than an aggressive one] there are several techniques you can use to show you are pack leader.
The most effective one is to stand up straight, legs akimbo and hands on hips and stare it down. If you aren’t too embarrassed to do it - grr back at it and bare your teeth.
If you show strength, it will usually bugger off.
If it come up to you and you feel confident, lean right over its shoulders and push it to the ground using your body. This is what one dog does to another to show who’s boss.
Being body charged by a giant dog is horrid - I stopped taking my greyhounds to one park as there was a Rotty which was a total thug and knocked mine to the ground at 30mph.
300 Looking at that it struck me just how wrong this week has gone for Brown.
The Grid probably started with Q3 return to growth, Gordon on Sunday breakfast show sofas, Darling, Campbell deployed in full on attack mode on Osborne. Darling on Today on Monday, Gordon triumphant on PMQs then build up to Gordon at EU summit, the World Statesman intent on saving the world through an agreement for common position at Copenhagen, with EU funds for third world. Ready then for the G20 finance ministers summit on 7th at St Andrews to again put the case for the success of Gordon’s policies.
Instead, no growth. media dominated by Tony Blair with U Turns on TA training, damning report on Government/MoD responsibility for culture of cost cutting at expense of safety , another ex-minister apologising to the HoC and ending the week at EU summit still talking about Tony Blair, meanwhile Kelly & expenses rumble on in background.
Brown has to survive another three months to feel secure that he will face the electorate as PM.
311. Unless there were a way both sides could lose?
316 Without wanting to be prejudiced (in other words, I am) the scabbiest people tend to have the scabbiest dogs.
Heidi (my 3 year old German Shepherd) received no less than 6 “what a beautiful dog” compliments while providing ‘canine assist’ during my walk up Kennesaw Mountain on Sunday. I have to say she is a beautiful dog, both to look at and by temperament.
So she is definitely not in the least bit scabby. As to myself, well, I like to think I’m not.
If I was scabby, somebody would have told me - or if they did I’ve forgotten
324 - What excellent advice - I’ll try that with the ludicrous Wage Slave.
323 - Not quite true though. Tories introduced it for a select things, Labour under Geoff Hoon, widen extend these to all civil cases, then started the real “fun and games”.
323 NoOffenceAlan - So you think only the very rich should be able to bring civil claims?
304 et al
I used to own one of those brollies that is spring loaded and opens rather violently at the push of a button. I found that if you pointed it at a dog and pushed the button the sudden explosion in apparent size would send a mutt off with its tail between its legs. I never had the opportunity to try the trick on a seriously threatening dog, however.
328. I normally just hump their legs. See how they like it.
129 (cont) And the real killer,
The 1999 Access to Justice Act, which came into force in April 2000, dramatically increased the attractiveness of no-win no-fee deals as judges could make the losing side shoulder the extra costs associated with conditional fee cases.
331
Brilliant - I can see it now!
332 You are Mr D4y’s Shagger dog and I claim my packet of Bonios
334:
Yeah, but I am not sure I’d want to try it first time on a Rotweiler without an escape route!
Thailand never ceases to amaze me.
I lived 2 months in a military city, where there is a huge lake surrounded by running pist. With at least a dozen stray dogs hanging around.
I’m running there almost every morning, and I was never, never annoyed by those free creatures. They apparently care only about eating, sleeping and shagging. God dogs!
In Mumbai, the dogs are dangerous. Why are they so peaceful in Thailand?
335 Who’s Mr Day? Not the legendary Darren Day?
What’s he doing these days? He was last seen cutting a swathe through early 90s totty.
314 - yes, the ‘couldn’t give a damn’ owner is a real pain.
At a dog park I frequent, one Dalmatian’s owner sits on the bench and reads while her dog - as she puts it - is just an ‘aggressive player’. Once it had someone else’s dog on its back, his teeth on her throat and was trying to bite down. Luckily three of us were able to get him off, and shouted enough to get her attention. She smiled and did the ‘it’s only aggressive play’ line again.
The dog is a menace, and it’s entirely her fault for not taking her dog ownership responsibility seriously.
324. Cheers for the advice Plato. I’ll try that next time!!
320: ‘Does anybody believe Brown really likes Blair or wants Blair to get the job?’
The rumour is that Brown is acting on Mandelson’s orders. The idea is that, after Labour are defeated at the GE, Miliband (Blair’s disciple) will be installed as Labour Party leader, and he, Mandelson and Blair will operate a sort of parallel government in Britain. This quasi-government will be backed by the EU (through Blair) and will wield significant power. The Tories will be sidelined. As a plan it’s not very democratic, but I see no reason why it won’t work.
337 - relations with SeanT?
324 That’s the advice we get when tracking lions on foot (well except for the push it to the ground bit) - if lion approaches stand up as tall and as wide as you can, stare it down, don’t flinch if it charges. I’d make one change and put one arm across my neck.
My friend Chris McBride was charged by a hippo once when leading some guests on a walk through the bush. Armed with a shotgun with “stopper” cartridges (sort of dum dum bullets that will stop a charging buffalo) he stood his ground while guests ran, keeping hippo’s attention on him. Hippo surprisingly braked, stopped and after peering at the stationary man staring at him, pointing gun at him about 5 meters off, grunted and wandered back.
324 Plato
Similar techniques are used to calm bucking, kicking and bolting horses, although hands are usually outstretched rather than on hips.
Seen a friend do this successfully to a very disturbed horse in its loose box. He finished by turning to me and saying: “See it’s easy: the important thing is not to show fear”.
Fortunately, it’s advice I’ve never had occasion to put to the test.
344 - “See it’s easy: the important thing is not to show fear”.
It’s good advice, but most dogs (don’t know about horses) can smell fear and can tell who is and is not a ‘doggy’ person.
When a dog is charging me, I usually wave my right arm as if I had a huge, deadly stone in my hand, ready to be thrown at him at full speed…
Learned it in Mumbai.
Doesn’t work when I’m against a herd, however…
Nadine Dorries showed no fear when facing a charging McBride and charged him back
I’ve always fancied having a pet woverine. They’re probably the most indomitable creature pound for pound. You could take it on your walks. Nothing would even consider threatening it I reckon. A *big surprise* would await.
“most dogs (don’t know about horses) can smell fear”
Is that why they play poker?
Looks like PP have already taken down the BNP market…
that’s wolverine
Would anyone like a gentleman’s punt of a tenner that we won’t exit recession in Q4 2009 either?
I have been reading Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s paper, “Banking Crises: an Equal Opportunity Menace,” which examines banking crises in 66 countries dating back to 1800.
They’ve concluded that crises are “equal opportunity” events, i.e. they cause similar problems whether they are in developing or developed nations.
They also suggest that financial crises that originate in the banking sector are worse and last longer than those that originate from falls in demand.
Sobering reading. Our financial sector is all we really had and it’s stuffed. Hence my pessimism.
Good Afternoon Playground Voters For Sal Brinton And Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Excellent article Mike …. might help to nudge the Watford Lib Dem price out a tad. More spondolicks for followers of Titan Jack !!
Humble Pie Mike …. it’s a new Auchentennach line.
“most dogs (don’t know about horses) can smell fear”
Is that why they play p0ker?
I wish I could learn to smell fear….
– I raise!
Plato one of my pleasures to remember a rotty trying to attack my oldest white Standard Poodle which died recently.
He almost literally ran the rotty to death, and as the clunking small brained idiot staggered around on its knees, the Poodle still danced around him floating like a butterfly and waiting to sting as only an annoyed Standard can. Standards are placid but energetic and friendly until attacked and then there is a determination which glitters in the eye. But they are well disciplined dogs so as soon as I called him he came back without doing any direct harm. He did look rather self-satisfied for the rest of the day, though.
The problem for people like Casino is the owner, not the dogs. And I get them on the seven kilometre beach here all the time, ignorant of any sort of animal psychology and unaware of how to train and control their dogs. And they don’t clean up if their dogs make a mess. Idjuts.
I am afraid I have done a ‘Casino’ several times in telling them where to go.
Mind, I still want to shoot red tabbly point Siamese on sight. But that is a long story.
Staying tangentially on the dogs topic, I’ve been looking for somewhere to walk Heidi (on a leash of course) where we can see a bit of nature.
Yesterday I went Amicalola State Park and found myself at the top of a 730 ft waterfall, looking over the valley, with the green, yellow, orange and vivid red leaves like a carpet all the way across and up the other side. It’s the approach to the southern end of the Appalachian Trail. It was a lovely day - clear blue sky, sunny, temperature in the low 70s (cool for the time of year but great for a walk). Sights like that make you realize why the call the autumn season ‘Fall’.
They have 600 steps down the side of the waterfall, and like a fool I went down them, and the trip up was harder than the trip down
re 37 Peter2′ When listening to the PM programme on the way home I was thinking to myself that I bet you’d post about this. Man you’re obsessed.
You are Jan Moir and I claim my five quid.
173 “wouldn’t mind Belgium being a net contributor of chocolate.”
Belgian chocolate companies are now owned by the very non-EU company Nestle.
347.
Elaphantine fees rather than fies against her fumbling foes. So she and tim are not likely to get wed then?
267, etc Re: Total BNP votes at the GE.
I think this could be quite close to the +/- 500,000 vote level. I am assuming the BNP will contest a maximum of around 350 constituencies with an average of 65,000 voters = 22.75m voters
Assuming they were to achieve a 3.5% share of the vote on a 65% turnout, that would give them a total of 517.5K voters.
It’s difficult to see them achieving more support than this and certainly backing <500,000 votes @ 11/8 looks like the value bet.
I can’t find this market on PP’s site - have they taken it down?
357 - ken what is the world coming to?
re 244 apart from the fact that what has been done would not have protected the Soham two. They only went to the house to visit their teacher, not Huntley. The fact that he was a caretaker - at a completely separate school - was irrelevant. The only way of avoiding it would be to CRB-check the partners, friends and relatives of all teachers too. Oh damn, I’ve probably given new Stasi labour an idea.
Shame…
As European Union leaders gather for their two-day summit in Brussels, the word is that the British government’s effort to have Tony Blair selected as the EU’s first full-time president is running into trouble.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown has just finished a round of afternoon discussions with other European socialist leaders, trying to persuade them that Blair deserves the job. The talks did not go well.
http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2009/10/blairs-eu-presidency-bid-runs-into-trouble-as-summit-starts/
Tony Blair’s bid to become the first European Union president hit fresh headwinds as his EU socialist allies refused to back him and a growing number of leaders questioned his candidacy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=axa.H8OUGUTk
Looks like Jonah has struck again.
“(don’t know about horses)”
GGs have a very large hypothalamus compared to their brain size and therefore are much more ’sensitive’ to emotions than almost all other animals.
They are very hard to mislead IME, the smartest dogs [collies, GSDs, poodles] are very similar EIQ wise.
Most peeps who don’t’ like cats usually attract them [can't understand why].
It’s a simple body language thing - a submissive cat will glance at a new visitor and then avert their gaze to show that they aren’t a threat.
Peeps who don’t like cats do the same thing - unfortunately their body language is misinterpreted as Hi, come over, I’m friendly - when they actually mean Oh bugger, a cat, hope it doesn’t notice me if I look somewhere else
363. People who don’t like cats are usually sociopaths or convicted sex offenders. There’s no actual scientific evidence for that, but it’s definitely true.
New thread
364 - it’s like people who don’t like the Dallas Cowboys - totally irrational
363, drifting ever more OT, but I prefer dogs to humans. If our country had a border collie for a Prime Minister our public finances would be in a much better state.
Brown is like an overfed, underloved, bloated hound. Milipede’s like one of those damned little rats on leads that yaps away but would get its arse kicked by a Jack Russell.
Plato the problem with cats, unlike dogs, if you don’t want anything to do with them they make a bee line for you. The perversity is amazing.
Anybody betting on the NJ-Gov Race?
*hearing crickets*
Anyway…. there is new poll showing Corzine +5.
EVERY AUTOMATED POLLS (PPP, Rasmussen) — robocalling — give Christie, the Republican challenger, a 4-point lead.
Whereas every live-call polls gives Corzine, the Democratic incumbent, a 5-points lead…
So the race is now also about robocalls vs live-call….
Back in 1974 on holiday in N.Cornwall I read a bbok on ’survival’.
It gave all sorts of good advice about what to do in a lift that was crashing….”Jump up and down.”
When drowning, try not to swim AGAINST the tide.”
Oddly enough that saved my life in 1974 and here I still am.
The other tip I picked up was that when in the jungle and confronted by a lion or tiger….Draw yourself to full height and enunciate clearly(in English) “I am a human being,not a baboon !”
Apparently that scares the shite out of them.
372 Jumping up and down in a crashing lift - I guess you’d have about 0.25 seconds to remember that one and act on it before you became jam!
Post number 42 hit the nail on the head. Am already looking.
Why is Gordoom Brown using the royal ‘we’ when refering to his own support to Blair’s presidency….hes a megalomaniac, didn’t thatcher do the same?
300 and others wanting to know why Broon is pushing for his dear friend Tony for El presidenty I hear our other friend Mandy is briefing against Gordo, so maybe he is trying to keep himself in his job