Labour get 5 point boost in today’s YouGov tracker
September 28th, 2009
CON 39% (-1) LAB 29% (+5) LD 20%(-1)
Are we just seeing the conference effect?
Labour get a massive boost in this evening’s daily tracker from YouGov for Sky News. The comparisons are with the tracker poll done last Friday.
On these figures we are in hung parliament territory and the Tories would be seriously worried if this did not edge down a bit after the conference.
Brown, of course, had lots of exposure over the weekend and the Tories are simply not being seen.
I think that we are going to learn a lot about how the media influences voters in this daily poll. I’m hoping that we’ll get the details the same time every night.
Mike Smithson
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Where did they get the other the percent from:)?
First?
It’s irrelevant.
You can’t polish a turd!
I repeat: I don’t like the volatility of these polls. I think the decision to have a different sample every day was a mistake. They should have made it a rolling sample.
1. Three percent even;).
The pills story turned a lot of peoples stomachs.
5. ‘Others’ I guess.
On these figures we are in hung parliament territory and the Tories would be seriously worried if this did not edge down a bit after the conference.
Baxter says C 324. That’s enough for a majority unless Sinn Fein collapses.
and others are on 13%
So this equals 101%, i mean i know we’re expecting postal fraud, so have the pollster taken this into account
Wow…. quick Gordon call Peter Kellner thank him then call an election for next monday at this rate you will be 5 points in front on Thursday.
What a load of codswallop !
Baxter gives the Conservatives 324 with that so just shy of a majority and possibly a majority with decent targeting etc.
Fully 29% of people - nearly one in three - would vote for this discredited, incompetent Labour government? I find it hard to believe.
379 - I agree with your analysis. There is a space in the market for a FDP-style party, and I for one would be joining it.
4. Yes but you are missing the point - this kind of volatility allows almost everyone to project their hopes/fears/obsessions onto a set of numbers.
All shall be able to hold up a poll and cry ‘I told you so….’
5 more years of Gordon ….. yippee
Politicians like Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly, Ed Balls, James Purnell, Ed Milliband, David Milliband, Jacqui Smith, Peter Mandelson, David Cameron, Alan Duncan, David Willets, Damian Green, William Hague, Chris Huhne, Alan Beith, Ed Davey, Danny Alexander, Matthew Taylor, together a whole host of minor nonentities like Meg Hillier, Maria Eagle, Geraint Davies, Barbara Roche, Susan Kramer …
Opinion formers like MaryAnne Sieghart, Nick Robinson, Guto Harri, Jackie Ashley, Nic Cohen, John Sargent, Bronwen Maddox, Michael Crick, Christopher Hitchens, ….
Jesus Christ, even little f*ckwits like Sion Simon….
They all read PPE. Just that one course at one University.
As Diane says @ 314, “However, to the vast majority of voters, the Tory/New Labour lifestyles are practically the same–they’re both rich and don’t really work.”
Not just New Labour and Tory Mps, but LibDems, but a large fraction of the entire political class, commentators and all, come from the same monied, “don’t really work”, Oxford-PPE background.
That is why attacks like Yvette Cooper’s don’t really work.
Conference volatility. I imagine Labour will reach the 30s without difficulty.
Didn’t the first tracker gave them on 30? I’m somewhat suspect of that.
Bear in mind that YouGov don’t take account of certainty to vote, which tends to exaggerate short-term movements.
Even allowing for this, though, it’s an odd result, since the weekend hasn’t exactly gone all Labour’s way.
Comparing with last week’s YouGovs, perhaps Labour do better on Mondays?
Ten LOLs for the Tories….
Swingback is working its magic!
I’d also disagree with the contention that we’re in hung parliament territory on these figures.
I suspect that this is more about the size of the labour majorities in the constituencies they’re going to win anyway, not the marginals. So I’m eager to test this hypothesis with the marginals poll.
9 - So the resignation has moved to tomorrow?
Incidentally, Electoral Calculus predicts Con 2 short of a majority on these figures.
Con 324
Lab 241
Lib 54
Others 31
However if SF stay at home it gives the Conservatives an effective majority.
24 to 29 is 5% on the you gov site…
http://www.yougov.co.uk/today/
- “Labour get 5 point boost in today’s YouGov tracker”
Great news for PM Dave and FM Alex.
Gordon Brown leading Labour into the next UK GE = Brown Epiphany = Tory and SNP heaven.
9 - The trend will be reversed in a couple of days when that major resignation is announced, right?
Storm in a tea-cup… bit of fun these daily polls and more so on the daily change than absolute numbers - at least until the Tory bash is over…
15 - perhaps “PPE, Law, Oxford” ought to be added to the list of disualifications for becoming an MP.
Reember, most of the welfare dependent layabout Labour core vote will actually be watching the conference coverage in between wife beaters on Jeremy Kyle and Special Brew on their cornflakes at 11am
I reckon the BBC will report this poll!
Tories and Lib Dems down 2 and Labour up 5 ??
So the ‘others’ who by definition are the most anti politics are flooding back to Labour??
Presumably after the Tories conference they will get a boost. Presumably after Mandys impersonation of Archie Rice we will see a 10 point labour boost?
Is this series of polls just a gimmick for YouGov and SKY ??
Lets wait until mid October. All this tracker rubbish is showing is that people who watch TV News are airheads (sadly that me included).
If this trend continues, Labour will be at 100% in less than two weeks.
@24: A trend depends on rather more than one datum point.
Has anyone ever seen Sky news break the news of anything so quickly as this.
Next week any Tory rise will be ignored and any Tory drop will be straight up as a headline!
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Labour-Support-Soars-At-Start-Of-Conference-According-To-Sky-News-YouGov-Poll/Article/200909415394269?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15394269_Labour_Support_Soars_At_Start_Of_Conference_According_To_Sky_NewsYouGov_Poll
24. One number does not make a trend… now 5 days of 29/30 would be more cause for you to get the bunting out!
30. That’ll be after counting the postal votes, yes?
Looks more like one of OGH’s Rules working its magic.
And despite the two-week-plus total media blackout of Cameron, the Tories are still in fringe majority territory, and holding solidly in the high-thirties/low-forties band.
5 more years of Labour 5 more years 5 more years !!!
If they sit on 29% then Labour will not win the election. We should wait until the Conference season is over plus add on a couple of weeks then see how the political landscape is at that point.
21. I make it
Con 317
Lab 238
LD 56
SNP 12
PC 5
Oth 4
NI 13 (SF abstain)
HUNG PARLIAMENT: Tories short by 6
@33: Even then, it wouldn’t be convincing (in the same way as those near-50% Tory leads, or the LDs overtaking Labour weren’t convincing)
I’ve decided that in any given survey for these polls 399 of the respondents are Derek Draper.
32 - Yes, i’m sure sky will break the news of the resignation quick as lightening, given how much you’ve hyped it.
32. As I said - this is media heaven. Every day a poll on which you can spin a story. If today’s poll doesn’t suit what you want to say, choose one from a couple of days earlier or wait a day or two for one that does.
We’ve had this sort of stuff being done by the political parties in the past, doing lots of private polls then leaking ones which look best for them. This is just an extension of the same principle.
Loads of noise, loads of easy copy.
18. I wasn’t going to post until I read Rod Crosbys male-cow faeces.
“A sign. A SIGN!!! You see! I’m right everyone. I’M RIGHT!!!!”
He sounds like a little boy trying to prove to his Mummy that Fairies exist because the scrawly note he left on the lawn has blown away during the night.
The fact that Crosby Show fails to note that *EVERY OTHER SINGLE POLL* shows his swingback theory to be - as Jeff Goldblum The Chaotician observed in Jurassic Park – one huge pile of Stegosaurus Dung is, how can I put this, “conveniently” overlooked.
Rod: you need consistent collaborative evidence to support your theory.
There is none.
So Labour have dropped 1% since last Monday? not much of a bounce
38. RodCrosby.
Well, if we’re throwing wild guesses around, I make it:
C 349
Lab 216
LD 46
SNP 13
PC 5
Oth 21
C maj 48
Here is that detailed data:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/Monday_28.pdf
Before Labour start celebrating I’d look at the regional splits. Cons strong leads in the South, London and Midlands and equal with Labour in the North. It’s in Scotland where there seems to be a variance from the normal monthly national polls with Labour on 41%, 7 points ahead of the SNP.
From a Conservative perspective if there is anywhere where they could suffer Labour piling up votes it is in Scotland.
38 Better rush over to Betfair, Rod. If swingback has started working its magic, this is your last chance to top up at 4.4
As one of the “Tory herd” on here, I watched Mandleson this afternoon and was impressed. If you put aside his history, which many voters will be unaware of, he is a very impressive performer. I began to think, if this man was to be PM, the Labour party would perform much better than currenty, perhaps enough to win the next election.
Then I thought, impressive as Mandy was, Cameron is still the more effective communicator, and has his chance next week. I too expect a period of volatility, but with the Tories hitting mid to high 40’s by the end of their conference.
As a staunch Tory, I think Labour have missed a trick here. They have got rid of their best performer (Blair) and missed the chance to replace him with their next best performer (Mandy).
With Brown I have no fears.
41 But wouldn’t it be AMAZING if it was true
Mandy’s speech was a corker for activists despite being largely content free. It’s very clear to me that he’s the leader Labour doesn’t officially have.
46.
Good point about Scotland…it’s a Bank Holiday weekend up here too in the west of Scotland. So our sample is going to be a bit screwy
Interesting. Although Mike is certainly right that Brown has had lots of coverage, if one only read pb.com one would think that was bad for Labour. My impression is that there are a lot of vaguely Labour sympathisers out there who have simply been demoralised, and in the last few days they’ve seen the party, including the leadership, pull itself together, so they’ve cheered up a bit.
There’s no point in fine-tuning the analysis of whether this means a 2-seat majority or what - on these sort of figures the election would become interesting. It’s just one snapshot poll, but it shows there’s potential out there. Incidentally, it’s confusing of Sky to call it a tracker - tracker polls have always meant rolling averages. This is a daily fully-fledged poll with a normal MOE.
I’ve been surprised by the amount of sympathy for Brown over the medication issue. The idea a PM might be on MAOIs is a little worrying and Charles Clarke probably had a point when he said Gordon should step down on health grounds. However most of the electorate probably think it is the usual low rate political smears.
Voters still say Labour needs a new leader. Just 36% say Gordon Brown should stay on - half say it is time for him to go.
I would note tha OGH refers to Brown having lots of exposure over the weekend - personally I would have thought that would lose them %. Could it mean Brown will benefit from all the exposure during the actual election campaign when it starts and then turn all our expectations of him being a disaster on his campaign tour on its head…
NO. But I’m sure some will think so based on 1 daily poll.
34- Based on my calculations, you will finally switch over to supporting Labour at approximately 2:23 PM on Friday, October 9.
Re 12 - The FDP is aligned with the Lib Dems in the European parliament. So join the Lib Dems to satisfy your style desires.
We can expect a bit of a Labour bounce. However, do you remember the fantastic speeches from last years Tory conference? This year Cameron and Osborne have even more ammunition, and Hague will no doubt rip into Labour - Pointing out that Mandelson was Labour’s most popular speaker would be a good start.
I expect it will be possible to see this daily YouGov poll giving the Tories a 20 point lead at some point during their conference.
51. If these numbers make you keep Brown then I’m happy.
You won’t get the same “boost” when all parties are given equal coverage in the run-up to the real thing in April next year.
Cameron will run rings around you.
51 - NPMP, it’s a shame that you are slowly turning into Roger.
51. I knew Nick would be ok from his sick bed to post up on this as soon as it was out! Let’s see how well he is this time next week…
46 - it as a 14% lead but then the sample size is only 90/84 weighted/unweighted.
55. The FDP is a very different beast to the Lib Dems.
Assuming identical sample size for each day, standard tracker methodology would imply:
(2 day tracker) C 40 (+1) Lab 27 (+2) LD 21 (-1)
(3 day tracker) C 39 (nc) Lab 26 (nc) LD 21 (nc)
Thanks jsfl
So, the SNP at 34% for Westminster v.i.?!?
Hee hee.
26 - But surely if you are going to be an MP and a legislator you will study a subject of most relevance ie politics, history or law (and economics if you want to go to the Treasury), preferably at one of our top universities. Studying surfing at Penzance College may be relevant for wannabee surfers but not really for future parliamentarians!
It looks to me as though YouGov are a bit like Politics Home. They try very hard to be balanced and fair but sometimes its just too difficult for them and their loyalties to the Left win out over their need to maintain a psephological distance.
@57:
Ssh. NPMP has conveniently decided to forget that Dave’s turn is next…
It shows how expectations have shifted over 4 years, when a 10% poll deficit should be considered *encouraging* for Labour.
On this basis, I think Labour may very well get to a low single-figure deficit in at least one poll, this week, before the gap widens again during the Conservative conference.
Gordon to call election on Thursday ?
@66:
BRING IT ON!
65. Which, of course, is enough to give the waverers the jitters about deposing Brown.
So they won’t.
WIN.
Note: The subject Crosby is having his delusional world manipulated successfully.
66. Great point - anyone on the YouGov polling ‘team’, why not lend your vote to Labour this week and see if we can get an election called on the back of it….
62 - no - 27% in this poll with a small sample.
52 - That’s because it is.
Do you think Dave should answer questions on whether his alleged use of recreational drugs has affected his mental health?
OGH : …we are going to learn a lot about how the media influences voters in this daily poll.
TV is ruling the West.
It has effectively took power.
Labour’s on TV; Labour gets a boost — only by emotionally affecting the likely voters.
***
Stars, did you noticed that Mr Palmer answered you in the last thread (about Afghanistan)?
Further to my 61, those numbers compare with the last “regular” YouGov of 39/26/20.
I’m not in bed (or I wouldn’t be posting so often), just not going out till I feel brighter. I can report that the latest study shows that good polling trends are more beneficial for the well-being of flu patients than aspirin.
The detailed figures ask the leadership questions again - Straw again top (reduces the lead to 6 points) but Ed Miliband way down this time. It’s hard to see a reason for this change and I suspect there’s a lot of randomness in the response to the less-known figures. Another minor point of interest is the continuing narrowing of the class divide - although the LibDems do a third better among ABCs, there isn’t that much difference for the main parties any more, which has been my impression for some time.
Is there any history to follow/learn from daily trackers in the US election?
72. SO: Do you think Dave should answer questions on whether his alleged use of recreational drugs has affected his mental health?
Does anyone allege that Cameron uses recreational drugs?
So Brown gets asked if he uses pills and Labour get a 5% boost?
59. Marcia I know. I’m not suggesting it is particularly accurate. However, in comparing it to polls with similar sized samples the only stand out variance is the Labour % in Scotland and goes some way to explaining the jump in the Labour vote.
I wasn’t suggesting there is really some fightback going on (I am sceptical of this polling method anyway). IMO they have just got a random sample in Scotland with more Labour voters than normal.
Miliband and Purnell back change in the voting system….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/28/david-miliband-backs-change-to-voting-system
78 SO just did at 72. Deep pockets one hopes…
81.
Hurrah! It’s nearly doomed! All it needs now is Gordon to back it…
66 That is the only way that this poll is interesting. A run of polling that narrows the gap will keep Gordon in place. He can say “look, look - it’s working - they love me after all! I’m not leaving - bugger off!” Then Christmas will come and go and Labour won’t have time to put a new Leader in place because Gordon will talk of a March election.
And then the issue comes down to “Gordon Brown - five more years?” Happy enough to have an election on that basis…
Southern Observer - Cameron’s use of drugs pre-dated his time in Parliament.
However it isn’t so much the alleged drugs, as Brown’s state of health.
75. Good to hear Nick, don’t read this bit of Anthony Wells’s analysis though as this could just be a systemic ‘bug’ for the pollster:
The poll was conducted yesterday and today. That’s a big jump in Labour support for the first day of the conference. It’s probably a combination of normal sample variance, the fading of the Lib Dem publicity bounce and the beginning of publicity from Labour’s own conference. That said, the figures from last Sunday had a high Labour score too, so there’s a possibility that it could be a timing thing: daily polling is a new development and there’s much to learn.
84. EdP.
Yeah, that’s how it looks to me too. OGH might want to review the comment (currently at 75 but moving…)
79 - I agree with you there. We will have to wait until the SNP Conference is over after 18th October plus a couple of weeks than see how the land lies up here. Plus the Glasgow North East by-election may be called soon. After my trip there on Saturday it may be closer than I had previously thought.
So Labour on 41% in Scotland eh??? And Labour and SNP combined 75% in Scotland?
Hmmmmm
And sally/tim is getting ever more repetitive on that Liberal Conspiracy thread.
86: post 66 is now 69…
90 - 79 now jumped to 82
And if a journo wants to ask Cameron about drugs/mental state, that’s their business.
It’s a crazy world we’re livin’ in. You can’t just ignore or dismiss this poll but realistically it should be a rallying call for Tory Backers and moreso if there is another good follow up poll for Labour.
The whole thing just seems so corny.The Lib Dems have what was largely acknowledged as a poor Conference followed by a poll bounce… and the Labour Conference which got off to a very tepid start seems to trigger off a bounce for them.
Next week the Tories have a Conf !
3:
Just to say that you *can* polish a coprolite.
83 I’m surprised Labour want to scrap a system that is slowly killing the Tory party.
52. Yes, but the only people who know of the MAOI gossip are big old anoraks like me and you. For somebody not in the know about the gossip, it looked like Marr asked Brown about pills just out of the blue. It’s especially insulting because it came right after a question about his eyesight.
I think that the holier-than-thou attitude on this site about pharmaceuticals is wearing thin–from both sides. Plenty of people take antidepressants and are not raving lunatics, just as plenty of people use recreational drugs and do not become slavering addicts.
97. Punter.
Bullseye!
Anyone remember me suggesting the Labour Conference was like the Marie Celeste?
Henry Macrory twitters…
Exhibitor at Brighton conference tells BBC’s Martha Kearney “Its like the Mary Celeste.”
26 minutes ago from web
88 That aligns with the 30% Labour scored a week ago (see my semi-facetious post above that Labour are -1%), be interesting to see over the period if there is a “seasonal affect” with particular parties scoring higher on average on particular days.
..to replace it with one that kills them quicker…
91 ’sally’ is a truly unpleasant creature. I hope it is TIM’s wife.
93 Has Tim been let out of his cell?
103 He has Tim’s post appears at 6
101. The great thing is we only need wait 24 hours and it will start to become clearer
I think sally’s style is rather different to that of tim.
103 MTF - See 6
80 - Plenty have alleged he has in the past and Dave has always refused to deny it, despite the opportunities he has had. If you ask experts in the field many will tell you that use in the past can come back to bite you at any stage.
*betting post*
I’d bet 5 pounds* at even that Labour will reach 30% for two days in the next 7 days.
Anyone’s interested?
The loser send the money to OGH…
*I’m done betting ponds…
106 Angrier; a sort of ‘Doppel-tim’.
108
How do you account for the fact that DC has got better and better at the job, knowing when and when not to stick the boot in?
87 - Look up what experts say about how use of recreational drugs in the past can affect your mental health in the future. If Brown is game, so is Cameron.
Maybe neither should be game. What do you think?
108. Isn’t it embarrassing for Labour that Cameron could be snorting coke off William Hague’s dome at the beginning of every PMQs, and he’d still come across as more reasonable than Gordon Brown?
108 SO - So presumably you support the idea that all candidates should be asked on oath about this? Or does the principle apply only to Cameron?
SO
If journos want to ask politicos about drug use, that’s their business. However, are you suggesting that anyone who has taken drugs should be considered unfit for public office?
And how would you square that with Obama??? Not to mention most of the Cabinet.
108 ‘If you ask experts in the field many will tell you that use in the past can come back to bite you at any stage.’
Well, that’s the majority of the populace under 40 screwed then.
110 “Sally” is almost certainly a guy though, from the tone…
So Brown gets a boost to stay! Excellent
I thought Mandy was outstanding. Could this be the start of the big turnaround?
So with the Labour fightback now well established and the party on the front foot, I expect the spread prices are now reflecting this?
117, may be a relative of Nursie from Blackadder II
119 - Sadly not, I’m coming to the conclusion that the only reason Mandy looked good was is the fact that Gordon Brown is so bad.
111 - I am merely posing the question. If Brown is fair game, then so is Cameron. He has quesiotns to answer if Brown does.
I would have preferred Marr not to ask Brown, but all those who thought it was fair enough should also recognise that it is equally as fair to ask Cameron. In fact, now Brown has been questioned, perhaps balance demands that Cameron is questioned.
119. Hope springs eternal in conference season, old boy. Pretty sure you said the same thing the last two years.
Can we forget inter-web-ramping…?
If YouGov are trying - desperately - to seek new income, why should PB accomodate? I suppose it’s all relative!
My finger-nails, and their toe-nail relatives, grow at different rates. Does this fact qualify for one of Shadsy’s books…? [And if anyone would trust me to report honestly...?]
I think I’ll take a few days-off, such is the fluff. I’ll await post-conference information. [Should I naff off to Cyprus again...? :rolls: ]
I expect we’ll see lots of ups and downs with daily polls, but one thing that would be useful if anyone wants to bother would be a rolling average of the differences of regional subsamples from the mean. On any one day they are pretty useless, since not weighted in any meaningful way, but if we have three weeks’ worth it should give a clearer picture of how regions differ from the average.
The vague impression I’ve had for some time is that the Tories are doing best (relative to 2005) in the Midlands and (contrary to legend) North and least well in London. Scotland left aside as a special case, of course. It’d be handy to have a breakdown of the Midlands since it covers such wildly different demographics but one can’t have everything.
56 Casino. “Equal coverage” is not the same as “equal quality coverage”. We have seen how the media can slant their questions and their comments to suit their own agenda and selection of material to be used will play a big part in the content of reports.I hope I am wrong - the first test will be seen during the coverage of the Conservative conference. It will be interesting to compare, for example, Boulton’s attitude,very unthreatening to Labour interviewees, when he talks to senior Conservative figures - even his decision as to who to talk to will be significant. What is the betting that Hague will have very little air time and we see delegates likely to contradict the party line.
114 - I support the fact that if Brown is asked questions about his mental health, Cameron should be too.
109 Yes, you’re on, Philippe. I bet 5 ponds they don’t.
And I can send the dosh to you in Canadian dollars, if I lose. ok?
119: Oohhh rogers made a semi-prediction.
This is conference season people…..wait for a few weeks and then see where we are.
123 But was Brown asked the right question, and did he answer truthfully?
Re 117
Are we expected to have sex tests now under Mike’s tighter regime?
119, no.
Apparently Mandelson’s speech was good/very good, which I can believe. I also think Brown will give an ok-good speech.
However, Osborne is smarter strategically than either of them and Cameron is a better speaker.
I think immediately post-Tory conference the Tory lead will be moderately extended and they’ll stand in the mid-high 40s, but that will dissipate in a few weeks and it’ll be roughly as you were.
The acid test for Labour is whether they can climb back into the 30s on a medium term basis.
The only issues with Cameron and drugs that I believe would have any resonance now would be if he had taken drugs - illegal or serious mood-altering prescription - since becoming
(i) party leader
(ii) an MP or
(iii) a parent.
If he can give the assurance he has not, then no problem.
116 - Indeed. It is a serious problem. It is one of the reasons why so much medical opinion is against the legalisaiotn of marijuana, for example.
128 You’re confused - is the questioning about mental health or drug taking?
123 Brown wasn’t asked whether has ever taken illegal drugs. Nor, AFAIK, have any of the Cabinet. It’s a false comparison.
In any case it would have no negative effect. Cameron would have his answer ready. In fact, I suspect he would turn it to his advantage.
132 Yes, Emily.
134 - Given the fact that Marr has now set a precedent with Brown, if we accept that past use of drugs has the potential to cause mental health problems later in life, and most experts do, then we have the right to know whether Cameron has taken drugs and, if he has, what kinds of drug. Furthermore, given the Brown precedent, we also have the right to ask whether he has sought medical advice on the likelihood of being affected by merntal health problems because of past drug use.
As I say, if Brown is fair game, so is Cameron. I would have preferred it if neither were.
112 Southam - has Marr a cause to ask David Cameron if he is taking mood/behaviour altering drugs or medication now?
I said when these rumours started that if the diet plan stuff was correct migraine seemed more likely than drugs but that “if” regarding diet is the first big query. Lets have some more ifs
If the BBC or Marr confirmed there were banned foodstuffs for Brown
If the BBc or Marr had sources other than the First Post that indicated there was a strong possibility
should he have asked?
when/if Cameron is PM I’d certainly want to know if he was taking mood changing medication. Not particularly bothered if he took mood changing substances before he was an MP.
136 - Medical opinion is that one can lead to the other.
SO
Cameron has been asked repeatedly about drug use. Gordon was asked once.
I still don’t get your point. If your suggesting journos should be free to ask their questions, then I agree.
Apologies if this was noted at the time: 2 days ago, on Compulsory voting being added to the mix for the next GE.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/sep/26/gaby-hinsliff-compulsory-voting
The reality is I think, whether people like it or not, that the next GE campaign on both sides will be easily the dirtiest in UK political history.
143, Labour just think it’ll suit their shallow but broad support (like postal voting).
126. Nick
The vague impression I’ve had for some time is that the Tories are doing best (relative to 2005) in the Midlands and (contrary to legend) North and least well in London.
Not far off although the Conservatives have progressed the least in the South East outside London. London itself is quite good for the Conservatives. On this poll there would be around a 9% swing in London from Lab to Con since 2005.
I’ll pull some figures together for the other regions.
137 - The way Cameron would respond is neither here nor there. The quesiotn should be asked as the use of recreational drugs can affect your mental health in later life. If the British people have a right to know if Brown is taking anti-depressants, they also have the right to know whether actions taken by the leader of the opposition in his 20s have the potential to heighten his risk of mental health problems now or in the future and what he has done to mitigate those risks.
144, on both sides? No Tory ever plotted to smear the wife of a Labour opponent. No Tory PM or Home Secretary had an Opposition frontbencher arrested for doing his job.
You see Cameron can bat off any allegations about his private life with
“Sadly you’re repeating smears that have come from the likes of Damian McBride”
143 - People should vote if they feel like doing so, not because they are forced. It’s one of the only ways we can see if politics is, and politicians are, failing us; when we see turnouts fall.
Having just caught up, I’m surprised that Rod hasn’t run the YouGov tracker through SampleMiser - it’s ideaaly suited to the Kalman filter technique (common methodology, repeated frequently).
I’ve done it myself, and it’s a touch disappointing - only tightens todays MoE from 3.0%/2.8%/2.5% to 2.8%/2.6%/2.4% - mainly due to the three day gap. At its best, the Lab/Con MoEs were down to 2.2/2.3% and the Lib Dem one to 2.0%. And shrinking the error bars by about a quarter is rather useful. It also shows what the most likely “true” positions throught have been:
Date____Con____Lab____LD
21-Sep__39.0___29.3___17.6
22-Sep__38.8___27.6___19.5
23-Sep__38.3___27.3___19.7
24-Sep__38.4___25.5___22.0
25-Sep__39.5___24.7___21.2
28-Sep__39.1___28.5___20.1
So it looks like a genuine shift in the Lab vote (not MoE noise), albeit not quite the 5% jump that it seems on the face of it.
(Although SampleMiser quotes to 2 decimal places, I really think that 1 decimal place is pushing the boundaries of sense here)
SO
Again if a journo wants to ask Cameron if he’s a nut, then they can. I don’t see the problem.
Where I do see the problem, is you intimating, Kevin Maguire style, that tories who have taken drugs are unsuitable for office, but Obama, Blair and Jackboots are OK.
139 SO - On that basis, politicians should be asked whether they have ever had a traumatic personal relationship, or were victims of a seaxual assualt in childhood. We know such things can lead to mental health problems in later life.
I really don’t think your line of argument stacks up. You are comparing apples with doughnuts.
I’m not saying Marr was right to ask that question, BTW. But it simply doesn’t set the precedent you claim.
143 - My point is merely that if Brown is fair game so is Cameron and to dismiss any alleged use of drugs as something that happened before he entered political life is disingenuous as the use could affect his future mental health and, therefore, his ability to do the PM’s job. If we have the right to know about Brown, then we have the right to know about Cameron.
Sorry if previously posted but this could open the floodgates for more defections form Labour
A Labour councillor defected to the Tories today, blaming the “failure” of the party’s leadership to listen to its supporters.
Brent councillor Francis Eniola attacked the “complacent attitude” of his former party and said he admired the “forward thinking” of Tory leader David Cameron.
The Tories seized on the defection, claiming the timing was a “massive blow” for Labour as it holds its annual party conference in Brighton.
Conservative Party Chairman Eric Pickles said: “It seems like Gordon’s great fightback has already crumbled at its first hurdle.
“People are deserting Labour in droves as they realise the only real way of achieving positive change for the country is through a Conservative government.
“The Prime Minister should do everyone a favour and spare us another eight months of Labour infighting and plotting and call an election.”
Councillor Eniola, first elected in 2006, said: “I have not taken this decision lightly, but after three years of agonising over the failure of the leadership of the Labour Party to listen and reflect the genuine views, needs and aspirations of the residents of Welsh Harp.
“The Labour Party has taken a complacent attitude to its supporters for too long and Labour has been unwilling to change to properly represent local people.
123: “I would have preferred Marr not to ask Brown, but all those who thought it was fair enough should also recognise that it is equally as fair to ask Cameron. In fact, now Brown has been questioned, perhaps balance demands that Cameron is questioned”
No it does not. You seem to think there is some sort of political equivalence between what a Prime Minister does while in office and a 20-year old undergraduate did years earlier before he emerged into any sort of political arena, let alone became a potential PM.
If that were the case then how about starting with the photo of one Tony Blair, in striped blazer, long hair and straw boater in the company of friends? This photo widely published in a cropped form quite clearly shows Mr B in an active self-gratification pose when the full picture is revealed.
Hardly the conduct of a person suitable to be PM?
154 - We agree about Marr, but disagree about the precedent. My argument is not so much with people that hold your opinion as with those such as Iain Dale who thought it was reasonable to ask Brown such a question.
This poll is a lot of nonsense. Indeed Kelner gave the game away on the Radio this morning (I forget if it was BBC4 or 5) when he less than slyly gave the game away by saying a full 8 hours before this was published that “I have good news for Lanour today”.
Kellner and Sky are playing a dangerous game, which may rebound on them. Especially on Kellner who is the most biased of the poll heads.
155. SO: If we have the right to know about Brown, then we have the right to know about Cameron.
And Cameron has been asked - repeatedly.
But admittedly only about past use, not the current use you imply.
152 Interesting that the Conservative vote has scarcely moved at all, over that period, and all the movement has been in Labour, Lib Dems, and Others.
From looking at the detail of the Yougov poll, I note that Harriet Harman as Labour leader takes them back into Conservative landslide territory.
149. Fair comment about Mc Bride, and certainly about Damian Green, that I strongly agree with.
However Marr’s question yesterday though was surely prompted by the rumours that have been dominating the tory blogosphere about Brown’s capacity for some time now. And they will be seen as a green light by slightly more subtle versions of Mc Bride in the labour party to retaliate for certain. I think the Tories will end up with little alternative but to fight a dirty campaign, given the campaign Labour will fight, and that we are seeing the start of it with the ongoing stuff about Brown’s health.
Bear in mind as well that we are months off the campaign proper yet. The last 3-4 weeks is when the serious mud will be thrown.
159. lanour=labour
159, presumably then today’s poll was actually taken yesterday. Otherwise, how could Kellner tell it would be good for Labour?
141 - I think you’re off down the wrong track here, Southam.
Cameron’s argument is always that you shouldn’t answer personal questions of that type relating to the period before you were elected. You can quibble about it (personally, I think it’s fair to say people make youthful indiscretions but its a bit glib extending that to your time as a Carlton marketing executive). You can take the refusal to answer as an admission (though that may be a bit of an assumption). But at least it’s clear and internally consistent (if not complete). The matter is now essentially closed.
It may well be that past drug use can have a longer term effect. But I don’t think there is any widespread rumour circulating that Cameron has “episodes” of that nature or has ongoing mental health problems. So there really isn’t anything to question him on.
With Brown, there was a widespread rumour out there. I think it was right to give him the chance to go on the record about it and deny it. Seems to have done him no harm in today’s poll and may have helped him a little. If the rumour was purely scurrilous, that’s an end to it - and just desserts to those spreading it that it might well have backfired. If not, then his answer has set up a major hostage to fortune (like Kennedy’s denial of alcoholism to Paxman).
Whether or not Marr was right isn’t really the point.
Its whether or not people perceive it as crossing a line and it generates an opposite reaction.
Regarding Brown’s medical history, if you wish to be P.M., or run a major company, your health is an issue of interest to the public or investors in the case of a joint stock company.
There was considerable fuss at Apple when Jobs stepped down for health reasons and there were no details as to what was going on. That can have a material effect on shareholder value in the company. Eventually all was revealed and he is now back in charge.
Likewise here in the US it is common for candidates for high office to release their medical records and tax returns. Physicians have lied before of course - FDR and JFK spring to mind. If the state of JFK’s health had been known to the public in 1960 he would probably never have been elected.
So asking Brown - or Cameron - about the state of their health seems a relevant question to ask.
Peter
Good sport! — As I suggested, the loser can send the money to OGH….
I’m ready to offer a lot of smallish bets like those in the next months to fund the pb.com treasure!
160 - I do not think that Cameron uses drugs now or has done so since he entered political life. In fact, I am sure he has not. I am less sure about before then because he will not answer questions about it.
133 Morris Dancer
All this stuff on drugs, and now acid tests. Turn on, tune in, drop out.
Proof if it was needd that the Tories need to be wary of complacency!
I agree with the comments above that the next election will be exceptionally nasty. Apparently Major’s advisors implored him to get personal on Blair in 1997, especially with the unscreened “Faust” PEB but Major was too honourable to do that and in any case he probably knew the game was up. Labour will have no such moral hang ups!
Kevin Maguire agrees with Southam Observer (from 2007):
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/columnists/maguire/2007/02/14/dopey-dave-must-cough-115875-18619722/
170, Maguire is a frequent twitterer.
Interesting post by guido on the drugs double standards
http://order-order.com/2009/09/28/camerons-drug-question-double-standards/
171. MD.
OK, I now need a new kybard having read that post whilst drinking…
159 - I think you’re being rather dismissive of a polling organisation with a good record and apparently sound methodology (and by no means a pro-Labour bias). The head of it is squeezing some publicity out of an eye-catching result - not sure he should be shot for that!
One thing to say about YouGov is that its polls are a little volatile - perhaps because the electorate is volatile, perhaps a methodology point. I wouldn’t rule out the slight bounce evaporating rather rapidly. But to suggest the poll is biased - well, there’s no evidence for that and it doesn’t square with YouGov’s record.
171 - If Gordon Brown = Luca Badoer
Kevin Maguire = ?
173, I’m sorry if I made your keyboard break due to excessive fluid landing on it
168. So what if he did before entering political life?
161 Which region do you expect to swing most heavily against Labour?
Maguire.. Well at least he’s an out and out leftie sorry champagne socialist in his stretch limousines. Much too good for the workers eh Maguire….. Reminds me of Tim .. regularly.
176. MD.
It’ll recover, I’m sure
For the record, I’d like to state that I frequently take coke.
I have a 2-litre bottle on my desk right now. (Some of which I had to wipe off my monitor & keyboard…)
I’d like to see a poll on here, about PBers and drug use.
175, I’m not sure I can think of anyone to fit, to be honest. Unless Maguire could be seen as that Legard idiot who does the commentating, or his predecessor (whose name I forget but who was also a cock).
Let them enjoy the numbers, after all we won’t want to take it as read that the deal has been done. The Tories need to work and earn the right to become the next Government. Let the conference next week be the start of the march to No.10, let the party make the attraction for change be done on merit, not as an anti Brown vote.
This is the silly season, in Meedleson speak “We’ve been 17 points ahead before and we can be 17 points ahead again” but in truth, I’d settle for 16 points ahead on Election Day, and it’s that count that really matters…
175. TSE.
Felipe Massa’s fuel hose man?
180, I’m drinking coke too. Bad habit, I’m a caffeine junkie. It’s almost my only dietary vice though.
182 - You mean James Allen?
168 The whole Brown medication question was rigged. He wasn’t asked about his mental health or whether he was on anti-depressants, but whether he was on painkillers by the same stooge who told the assembled press pack that there wasn’t going to be an election. Funny that. Brown didn’t even answer the question, just waffled on about his eyesight.
And now every man and his dog is using this an excuse to demand that other politicians answer questions on drug use. How terribly convenient.
The changes seems very marginal and within the MOE for the Tories and LDs so it seem to me that it’s just the apathetic who would say that they would vote Other realising that the Labour party is in the news and just having their memory jogged.
185. MD.
My GF calls it “poison”. Hasn’t stopped me, though
184 - I like that.
Or Nigel Mansell’s moustache.
Ok Regional assessment of these daily polls (approx change since 2005 GE figures)
London
Con 39 (+6)
Lab 30 (-9)
LD 23 (+1)
Other (+2)
Lab-Con swing 7.5% (not 9 as previously posted)
South
Con 47 (+4)
Lab 21 (-5)
LD 23 (-3)
Other 9 (+4)
Lab-Con Swing 4.5%
Midlands/Wales
Con 42 (+6)
Lab 29 (-10)
LD 17 (-1)
Other 12 (+5)
Lab-Con Swing 8%
North
Con 35 (+8)
Lab 35 (-11)
LD 18 (-3)
Other 12 (+6)
Lab-Con Swing 9.5%
Scotland
Con 16 (NC)
Lab 41 (+3)
LD 9 (-14)
Other 34 (+11)
Lab swing to Other 4%
NB The big caveat on these figures is that the Yougov regions do not reflect the Electoral Commission regions (from whence the 2005 figures are derived) and I’ve no idea how they might differ so all figures should be treated with caution.
177 - It would show poor judgement, a lack of respect for the law, and a lack of understanding of an industry (which he would have fuelled) which doesn’t just exist to serve wealthy advertising executives but blights the lives of many people here and abroad who aren’t just having the odd line for “lifestyle reasons”.
None of those things would automatically disqualify him, and he might well have matured as we all do. But it isn’t an irrelevance by any means and is worth talking about.
Personally, I think he should have said and had the discussion. But there we go - as I say above the issue is closed as his answer was at least clear and consistent, if not complete.
re 10, but Wayne you know that Gordon’s off to the palace tomorrow before his big speech, don’t you?
O/T how can I get my name and email to remain in the comment boxes when I hit refresh - it always used to.
192 - We’ve all done things we regret when we’re young.
190. TSE.
I thank you
I thought of that guy as he (a) was employed to be helpful; (b) was trying to be helpful; (c) screwed up horrifically; (d) made his man look stupid; (e) cost his man the big prize.
Now, Maguire had not yet done (e) - sadly, Nigel Mansell’s moustache did only (d).
Not sure whether this has been mentioned or not… But couldnt this conference poll finally finish brown off?? Any drop off tomorrow after his speech will be seen as a public reaction to him personally, even if its coming back down from a large boost due simply to moe. If this poll was done afterwards and showed say 4% increase, the media would say good job! This is now not going to be the case. Of course, if it increases further it will simply be put down as increased coverage.
And here is where the veneer of invincibility starts to be stripped away. Does one poll mean very much? Not really. Are we seeing swings during the conference - absolutely, and with the big guns firing today and the next few days, expect to see that Labour share go north of 30%. Will there be a similar swing back to the Tories next week? Absolutely.
Here’s the thing. Some of you have been saying (with confidence verging on the menacing) that there is no way Labour can recover, and that anyone who disagrees with the Tory landslide mentality is somehow strange in the head. And yet here we are and the Tory victory is swept away into hung parliament territory. Only this lunchtime that Platell woman confidently proclaimed on Radio 2 that talk of hung parliaments was ridiculous.
OK so its poll swings in conference season. But it proves that the polls are still capable of swinging. There are still plenty of voters out there who are utterly hacked off with Labour, but aren’t sold on anyone as an alternative. The fact that their vote sits in the Tory tally for now doesn’t mean that they are nailed on Tory votes.
161, Sean,
Yep - the Tory vote looks pretty stable at 39%-ish.
I also note that Ed Milliband would make an even bigger Tory landslide than Harman (as an aside, what have the poll sponsors got against Darling - in my opinion, he’d be even more dangerous to the Tories than Straw).
Journos should be free to ask whatever questions they want. I never complained when Cameron was asked about drugs and will not complain if he’s asked again.
In fact, I welcomed the fact that Cameron was asked and then told them it was none of their business what he did prior to being an elected representative.
Guido is right, the double standards are quite ridiculous and Maguire is the biggest hypocrite of the lot. He constantly refers to Cameron as ‘druggie dave’. Equally, the left whinging about tories trying to interfere with the Beebs impartiality, then doing the same themselves.
As someone said, the body of the (PM) belongs to the state now. (Think that was to Lizzy the first by one of her early advisors).
195 - Unless one had a particularly bad experience why should one regret having taken such drugs? I know politicians have to say they only experimented and they regret it now but that’s usually crap, isnt it?
Isn’t what we’re seeing here a multiplied effect of Mike’s ‘Cameron’ rule?
Not only has Cameron not been in the media for several weeks but the Tories have taken a kicking from Labour and the Lib Dems without much opportunity to respond. I’m not surprised their rating has taken a hit.
I fully expect it to be back at 40%+ in a week and a half with Labour comfortably sub-30% when the media coverage is reversed.
202 Nail. Hits. Head.
161- Obama has never disclosed his medical records.
195 - Of course, which is why I say it doesn’t disqualify him from high office (and nor does Clegg’s cactus arson!)
But I do dispute Sunil’s “so what?” approach and personally think that it’s better to discuss what you learned rather than shut up shop about those sort of things. I’d also note that Cameron has a slightly stretched definition of “when we’re young” to apply to “when we’re 30-something executives”. Much though I like falling into that liberal definition of youth!
If Cameron has taken drugs as a student good for him. Something real that actually connects with the shared experience of the many (pot at uni - what a shocker!). The Hague drinking 18 pints story or however many it was I always thought just showed him to be real - I cleared 18 once as well. Not proud of it, but students going on an all day bender and drinking themselves sober is hardly shock and horror territory.
So why are the media obsessed with it? Ah yes - because they despise anyone who shows the slightest deviant behaviour (as defined by them) and hate anyone who is an anonymous clone.
203 Sounds messy.
192. As opposed to breaking the law while in office, like certain unelected cabinet ministers?
201 Neil
Obama didn’t: ‘Of course I inhaled, that was the point.’ Ditto Arnie. Cameron just stuck with the line that what went before was MYOB.
All very refreshing the way senior politicos deal with the drugs question nowadays.
IIRC, Arnie was asked if he had taken drugs and said no. Then the journo said, but we’ve got a photo of you smoking a spliff? To which his reply was ‘that’s not a drug, it’s a plant.’
re 198 Whsat I think this all proves, as I say every September, is that conference season polls have to be treated with great caution.
Wait till mid-October when it’s all out of the system.
re 140 but Southam that’s a totally false presumption. Many of us here will have taken an opiate drug at some point in our lives, perhaps several times. That doesn’t mean that we’re all going to turn out as nutty as Brown.
187 EdP. Given the track record of those concerned, I agree with you.
Has Mr Marr ever asked Mr Brown a hostile question before? Why should he start now, by getting the thrust of the hostile question wrong?
Lord Mandelson built up the item himself by his strong protests in defence of poor Mr Brown, chiming with the Underdog theme in his speech.
Just a not-very-subtle way of focussing attention on a supposedly weak point on the Conservative side.
re 142 Southam - sorry to do a tim but can you give me a link to the medical evidence please.
“Arnie was asked if he had taken drugs and said no. Then the journo said, but we’ve got a photo of you smoking a spliff? To which his reply was ‘that’s not a drug, it’s a plant.’”
ROTF
That is brilliant!
201 - You might genuinely regret it due to developing an understanding of how the drugs industry works and the number of vulnerable people here and abroad affected by it.
212 - BBC-paranoia reaches an all-time low on pbc. Now they are even being anti-Tory when they ask Brown questions that are too hostile! For the love of god.
Salutary reminder time -
Poll of likely voters immediately after Republican convention, two months before the election -
McCain 54, Obama 44 (Gallup/USA Today) Sep 5-7
McCain 49, Obama 47 (ABC/WaPo) Sep 5-7
McCain 48, Obama 48 (CNN) Sep 5-7
Two months pass
Obama 53, McCain 46 (Election Result)
Polls taken now have little worth regarding election predictions.
216 Neil -
204 - Yes, that’s correct. That’s why I said it was ‘common’. I thought that if I specifically mentioned Obama it’d be perceived as dumping on him. McCain released a huge amount of medical records.
“Lord Mandelson built up the item himself by his strong protests in defence of poor Mr Brown, chiming with the Underdog theme in his speech.
Just a not-very-subtle way of focussing attention on a supposedly weak point on the Conservative side.
by AnneJGP September 28th, 2009 at 6:53 pm ”
That is very Machiavellian.
If the cap fits…
215 - Surely that would lead a sensible person to regret the legislation governing the activity rather than the activity itself?
217. So Labour are going to win a landslide - is that what you’re saying?
Politics can be very tedious.
Tories here defending stuff when it suits them that they would and have condemned in others and support policies to increase the legal penalties for the offence.
Meanwhile a Labour hack attacks Dave for smoking pot, whilst having supported plans to decriminalise it and surely ignoring similar behaviour in other more friendly pols.
And then Guido equates narcotics with prescription medication as only he could.
What a steaming pile of ****
216 I wonder what the results would be of random drug testing at the BBC?
156: One councillor is a massive blow who opens the floodgates?
191: Thanks, jsfl, very helpful. No huge regional differences really, apart from the small non-London southern Labour vote being steadier and the Scottish special case. Is that just from the latest poll of averaging the differences over the week? It’s the latter (idelaly over the whole 2-week period) that I’m after - with 21 separate polls we really should have some meaningful averages. My theory is that there isn’t really a big regional variation in swing, despite all the journos trying to talk one up.
208 - “As opposed to breaking the law while in office, like certain unelected cabinet ministers?”
Please think before putting in a “snappy” retort. I’m not a Labour supporter and don’t defend Baroness Scotland. But are you arguing that both are relevant or neither? Or are you saying some form of statute of limitations applies? I’d say both are relevant to some degree. Plus my point about the wider impact on society of fuelling the industry.
233 - Politics is very tedious. The exact comparison is Eurovision: the voting process is far more interesting than the substance that we are supposed to concentrate on.
James Macintyre is deluded on Sky News. No, Labour won’t win!
The only thing I regret is not having enough things to regret.
NPMP man cold seems to be improving.
Waugh on drugs
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/09/kinnock-weighs-in-against-marr.html
229 - MC, trust me, having lots of things to regret is a pain in the arse.
226. I did think before retorting! Didn’t think you’d call it “snappy”, though!
PS. far more deaths per annum due to alcohol and tobacco…
217: The difference is that the US electoral system is such that the personalities are relatively unknown before the electoral cycle starts (most of them anyway). whereas over here the leaders are well known (unless your name is nick clegg) by the general populace. looking at longer term changes in opinion polls (year on year) you’ll find that actual opinion changes relatively slowly.
@232:
Those are the things that make life interesting.
The best thing for Labour to do would be for Brown to announce he’ll step down at the next election and have a Labour leadership contest. Voters want change and if they know change will come whoever they vote for then Labour will do better.
231 - Marr has asked Cameron 3 times already about drug use…so it will be a 4th on Sunday then.
235 - I know. My mis spent youth was full of interesting things.
223 Jonathan, what an arrogant so and so you are - continually dismissing the perfectly plausible views of others, who dare to have opinions that differ from your own untouchable and sacred beliefs.
New thread now up - Marf on the fight-back.
229. Surely “The only thing we have to regret is regret itself”?
I’ll get me coat
NEW THREAD - NEW MARF CARTOON!
223. Personally, given the chance, I’d legalise, regulate and tax virtually all drugs that are currently illegal, excepting only those that have psychotic effects.
Give people the information and let them choose to make decisions about their own lives.
As with the ending of prohibition, it would also at a stroke cut crime massively.
235 - Far more people partaking of both though aren’t there. By that logic, poking a sleeping lion with a sharp stick is safe because in fact relatively few people die from it. But only because relatively few people do it.
In any event, if that’s the politician’s argument then fine. Let the politician say, “I took it and don’t regret it because…” It would be bold to say the least but honest and there is an argument to be had.
191. Nick P that’s just based on tonight’s poll (if anyone has a link - I couldn’t see them on Yougov - to the prior daily polls I’ll try to start putting together some averages). I’ll keep recording them and produce some averages as they later ones come out. Whilst it’s not great practice to average given the polls are seperate samples and are polled so close together they would have some use.
However, the one observation I would add is that if there is a Conservative bounce at the end in one or more regions the snapshot polls that could be watered down in the averages when in fact the snapshot figure could be more accurate.