ComRes: Labour would do better with anyone but Brown
September 27th, 2009
CON 38%(-2) LAB 23%(-1) LD 23%(+2)
And the LDs draw level after their conference
A new poll for the Indy from ComRes tonight has further good news for the Lib Dems following their conference last week. They move up to 23% and are now at the same level as Labour - something that won’t bring much cheer to delegates in Brighton.
The trends are very similar to the other recent polls - Lib Dems up with the Tories and Labour down.
This follows the established pattern for post-conference polls when the party that has just been showcased tends to get a boost.
An interesting feature is that ComRes asked how people would vote with different leaders and the news is not good for Brown. The Tories do better and Labour does worse with the PM there.
This is the list from ComRes which will go down like a lead balloon in Brown Central.
What concerns me about the questioning is how the figure for “others” increases as you put other names before those being interviewed.
I also think that many of these responses are nothing more than a test of name recognition. Jack Straw is the best known of the group so he comes out best. Who but political anoraks have heard of Jon Cruddas?
Whether this poll will make any difference I don’t know. The party does not appear to have the stomach for change.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Bugger me !!
1 - Ditto
1. Hat tip - AH Matlock !!
1: No thanks
Just seen this in the Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/27/gordon-brown-labour-conference-bankers
Mandelson, Cruddas and Balls are a positive?
What a load of balls and I don’t mean ED.
What concerns me about the questioning is how the figure for “others” increases as you put other names before those being interviewed.
I agree and I just don’t buy it. Just as Comres were getting their rep back as well. Oh dear never mind back to ignoring Comres findings again………..
I am a little dubious about ComRes at the best of times but no way this side of the second coming of Christ would Ed Balls do better than Brown.
6. They’re havin’ a laugh, ain’t they?
If they remove Gordon, Jack Straw the best candidate for Labour on these numbers…
Mandelson the worst. Hah!!
Ezio finds it difficult to believe that more than 10% of the people that they asked knew who John Cruddas is.
No Darling question? lol
Labour fail to get above 28% with anyone, thats only 2 above the YouGov polling
And yet we are to believe one in five Tories will not vote for them if Strawman takes over - despite it being clear form other pollsters that 80% say their vote is solid.
31/28/21 - don;t be silly Com Res, 12% more ‘others’ than 2005?????
I’d like to have seen how Labour would have fared under Anthony Charles Lynton Blair (sorry I do hold a betting slip) and James Purnell (another betting slip)
Load up, Load up - 8 out of 10 ComRes cats prefer a Hung Parliament…
10. Well I am sceptical that Mandelson can command 24% of the vote, then again maybe there a side to him that I have previously overlooked.
Mike presumably has “more bad news for Gordon” and “gloom for Labour” programmed as Function keys. You couldn’t keep typing that.
FPT 337. James Burdett. On topic of popularity changes after party conferences. I wonder if Labour are now at a point where close media exposure (of any sort) is actually damaging to them, rather then positive ?
And - How extraordinary that Ed Balls would, reportedly, improve Labour’s position.
15. Don’t get too excited Rod you’ll make a mess on your trousers!
Don’t believe a word of it. Still, it should stir things up nicely at the conference.
9. I stand by my previous statements that Ed Balls looks like a porky Nazi but at this point, he might do better than Brown. He doesn’t look as if he’s just been embalmed, and nobody’s called him an out-and-out madman yet. So he does have two advantages over his master.
It’s a great mischief making poll.
A good day for the Conservatives: Brown shows he is absolutely determined to stay, poll shows he is the worst possible Labour leader.
So let’s hear it for Jack “Accountancy Isn’t My Strong Suit” Straw!
The Milliband (Banana edition) column adds up to 101%?
17 - I doubt it, I still expect them to improve slightly as a result of this conference. Then it will be Conservatives turn for a little boost before we are back to polling as usual. Possibly with a bit of shenanigans around the PBR when Labour have to admit they underestimated their borrowing needs in the budget.
15. RodCrosby.
Laughable.
I just love Berlesconi:
“I bring you greetings from a person who is called…a person who is sun-tanned…Barack Obama,” the smiling 72-year-old politician told a crowd of cheering supporters in Milan on Sunday.
“You wouldn’t believe it, but they go sunbathing at the beach together - his wife is also sun-tanned.”
I love it - and no, I’m not racist.
9 James (and others)
You are missing the point, I think. There is an ‘anybody but Brown’ mood out there. Naturally I share your reservations about ComRes but even the dullest polling organisation would be picking up that vibe, and that is what I believe this poll does show.
Anyway, you can rest your Tory head peacefully tonite. Nobody, but nobody, is going to save Labour from a pasting. The very best alternative they have to Brown - and I’m damned if i know who that is - would save at most 20 seats, and that’s being generous.
Nite everybody!
12 They are the sort of If my aunt had had **** she would have been my uncle type questions. Ezio is correct, how many voters have even heard of Cruddas?
We will only really know the SP if Labour change leader, but even then the fundamentals won’t change.
It depends how they worded it as well - I guess it ends up being a kind of ’say labour when they get to your favourite Labour politician’ poll - hence an artificially low Tory figure and an improvement for ALL the Labour politicians named.
“I also think that many of these responses are nothing more than a test of name recognition. Jack Straw is the best known of the group so he comes out best. Who but political anoraks have heard of Jon Cruddas?”
Spot on.
I bit a small bullet and Bought LD at 50.0 on the Line and now arx politely for 48.0.
This is mischief making par excellence from ComRes.
John Craig on Sky:
Labour conference hall was only half full even when Brown was on.
Just shown the missus the list and three names she doesn’t even recognise. Ed M, John C and Ed B!!!
I’m not sure of the value of such questions.
I certainly meet more LibDems than Labourites. Then again I live in occaisional LibDem territory.
It is my hope that the LibDems shall replace Labour as the main socialist party. I am not sure they would be any better but Labour must be removed from the political map for their arrogance, coruption and excesses.
Unfortunately many career Labour types (such as Mandelson) would migrate to the LibDems, contaminating the brand in the long term.
32. “This is mischief making par excellence from ComRes.”
Yes, Darling probably has as good a chance as any and they didn’t even include him in the poll.
I think there is more to it than simple name recognition. Probably not a lot more but there you go.
31. I imagine with 8 almost identical questions that quite a few people just answered the first thing that came into their heads (wishing they had never agreed to do the poll).
32. URW
“I bit a small bullet and Bought LD at 50.0 on the Line and now arx politely for 48.0.”
Can OGH do a site poll on what we expect the number of LibDem seats to be?
21 – c, “It’s a great mischief making poll”
My thoughts exactly, huge entertainment for all… unless your party is presently ensconced in Brighton.
30. Dyed. Yes,I think that’s right. Your way of expressing approval of an individual is to answer, “Yes I’d vote for them”, rather than “I’d dislike them less, but still not vote for them”.
Interesting remark from Darling
I certainly meet more LibDems than Labouries. Then again I live in occaisional LibDem territory.
It is my hope that the LibDems shall replace Labour as the main left party. I am not sure they would be any better but Labour must be removed from the political map for their excesses.
Unfortunately many career Labour types (such as Mandelson) would migrate to the LibDems, contaminating the brand in the long term.
Well, isn’t this fun?
All the grey fox has to do is find some way of easing El Gordo under the proverbial bus…
At 21%, how many seats would the Lib/Dems have (accepting all the caveats)?
Right - so Lab are equal to LibDems on 23 and Gordon is the worst possible leader.
Oh dear.
He will be miffed.
34. She didn’t recognise Ed Balls? What a lucky woman she is.
Ludicrous. I doubt 10% of people even know there are two Miliband brothers. They probably think there is one with a nickname, i.e. David “Ed” Miliband, the perky dark haired son of a Stalinist, Khmer Rouge adoring father.
More interestingly, if you BAXTER the percentages Lib Dems need to overtake Labour in seats, you get an idea how difficult the present system is for them.
e.g. if the Tories got 36%, the Lib Dems 27%, and Labour 17%, the Tories would have a handsome majority, but Labour would STILL have more seats than the Libs - 132 over 120.
This is why Labour will never give the Libs electoral reform. FPTP may end up as Labour’s life support system.
The thought that a party can be just shy of a governing majority with 28/27% of the popular vote (17 or 18% of the electorate) is truly absurd.
Well it looks like another of the Government’s whizzo wheezes is about to hit the skids (deduct 2 points of Jack Straw’s score).
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6851545.ece
I wonder though what effect this poll might have on the Labour leadership?
Will it encourage Milliband or Harman or even Balls?
I doubt any of them would be more willing to let Johnson have a clear run after seeing this.
33
Any increase in the local suicide or murder rate?
Just imagine Gordo’s “speech of a lifetime” to conference on Tuesday. At least 7 people on the platform behind him thinking “I could do better than that…”
Nice for the Lib Dems, but it’s a flash in the pan.
Just saw a little of the BBC news. Labour still trying to pretend their cuts are nice and Tory cuts are nasty. It’s a bit like claiming it’s alright if you stab someone using a fair trade knife.
46 - I think if the Liberals were 10 points clear of Labour in third then they would have more seats than them, regardless of what silly prediction models show.
I am utterly unsurprised by this. No-one could suggest a man who would make a worse PM to me other than, perhaps, Mr Blobby.
I wonder also what effect this poll might have on the LibDems.
Perhaps they are thinking - attacking the Conservatives picks up some soft support from them, would attacking Labour do similar and push the LibDems into second?
Not buying those other leader figures from Com(edy) Res. It is quite possible that another leader would give Labour a boost, but really come on
Jack Straw, Tories only get 31%
When was the last time the Tories were on 31%, without or without Brown?
And Cruddas as leader, Labour get no boost but Tories suffer as more people vote “Other”, hey?
Mike - there must be something terribly suspect about the figures for the various possible Leaders. It is just not credible that the Tories would actually poll worse (31%) than in 2005(33%) if Straw was PM. There’s something badly wrong somewhere with these findings.
55 - “…..which started in Crinkly Bottom”
FPT
ahhh, watching Sky News and hearing Mandelscum at fringe meating.
Asking Al beeb for “same degree of intrusiveness” To Cameron as Gordo.
Marr not doing Liebours dirty work again?
Well, we knew it would be dirty …….
47 - Ralph Miliband was a Stalinist?
And Sean Thomas is the Leader of the Gang.
A Glitterist.
Only an idiot could believe either.
57 (cont) Strikes me another one of those “make a story” kind of polls, which we have had a few in past months and that I think I am right in saying always seem to be published in the Indy.
Ken - There are some careerists who no doubt might wish to migrate to the Liberal Democrats.
Fortunately, the Liberal Democrats have processes in place to approve (or not) membership applications.
I for one would not approve the acceptance of a membership application from Mandelson, were it to appear on the agenda where I am involved.
So fear not. Trouble-makers and trouble-making will not be allowed. You can safely vote Lib Dem next year.
Have I missed the resignation that Wayne was prediciting would happen this weekend? Or is it a deferred resignation?
The poll lacks substance because it suggests that there are 2% of people who would not vote Conservative were Jon Cruddas Labour leader, but that these people would not swing to Labour but to ‘Others.’ Why on earth would they do that?
52 I hope Gordon Brown doesnt smile.
Still. Labour’s best hope is a new face.
Cruddas would be acceptable to many non Labour people.
60 - Here we go, unbelievably opened ended question about Gordo and “prescription painkillers” (has anybody ever alleged Gordo is doing a Hollywood?) vs Dave and his drug past.
Why do I think the questions Marr will pose next Sunday will not leave as much wriggle room, more “have you either taken drugs”, followed by “have you ever taken coke”, followed by “when was the last time you ever took drugs”, repeated.
Cameron better make sure he has got some “good” answers!
278 etc I may be deluded if I think that labour has any long term future in Wales but I also think that you are deluded if you think that Plaid can be transformed by Adam Price, a guy full of big ideas, this nonsense impeaching Tony Blair was just headline grabbing with no chance of getting anywhere. I wonder what he was doing to help his constituents in Ammanford at the time. Isn’t he off on a sabbatical next year? Some leader.
Wales is not Scotland and is many years from putting an Independence referendum to the people.Plaid is not the SNP and I fully expect the party to lose ground to the Tories at the GE.
Without getting all Martin Day, I’d be quite happy if, at the next election, the entire parliamentary Labour party was shot.
It needn’t be painful or obtrusive. We just need to hire a small stadium, a la General Pinochet, for a day or so. I suggest the Leyton Orient ground.
Then we can have all the Labour MPs bussed down from Westminster, escorted onto the pitch, where they can dig their own graves by the goal. Then we line them up and shoot them.
And we needn’t worry about the cost - because every single one of them will reflexively charge the price of a bullet to their Commons Expenses.
57. When was the last time the Tories were on 31%
In Comres world on the 31st May 2009 (that nutty pre Euros poll). Otherwise in all polls, 27th September 2007 (two polls), 22nd April 2006, 9th October 2005 and before that 17th September 2005 with a few before that subsequent to the 2005 election (Populus seem to make a feature of it).
Did Sky really just report Brown claiming Tories will cut by 50%????
I was going to say “is he mad”
64 - I have no idea if this is what Wayne “mole” meant or if Wayne was talking rubbish or he is using the same mole as TimBot, i.e some bloke who cleans the bogs at CCHQ,…but
I believe a high ranking aid to Darling resigned suddenly and was immediately signed up by Squeaky Osborne. I think it was believed that he was the infamous treasury mole.
70, during the Marr interview Brown claimed most small businesses would collapse if the Tories got in.
55
We held a discussion about this topic and came to the conclusion that Mr Blobby would, on the whole, have done less to damage the country than our own ‘Dear Leader’.
We found that, while Mr Blobby posessed the same level of economic acumen as Brown, he was much less authoritarian.
63, perhaps Mandelson is a bad example. No party would touch him.
No.. I am thinking more about the lower to middle ranking Labour activists.
Australians complain to me that one of the effects of 3 successive Thatcher victories was the importation of many Labour/Trade Union ‘Battlers’.
The influx caused a lot of trouble in Australia which had previously had the highest standard of living in the world.
The ‘battlers’ are very good at winning battles, they have limitless energy. However, they have a habit of destroying everything around them.
65
Brown smiles and Labour lose another percentage point.
Hilarious poll. Are they seriously suggesting there is any statistically significant data here?
As we know, ComRes didn’t have a terribly good reputation, because they kept changing their weighting, apparently arbitrarily. Then, a few months ago, they produced a poll with three options, two of which were on the same side of the question - breaking Rule Number 1 of ‘Polling for Dummies’.
They seemed to have improved recently, having apparently adopted ICM’s weightings.
But this latest poll is transparent nonsense. That a pollster is prepared to put its name to it tells you more about the pollster than about the ostensible subject of the poll.
68 - Your “look at me” narcissist posts lose any impact they once had with repetition.
You can write to a level, but the sub Martin Day attention seeking is a bit sad.
66 - Yep, seems we just need to listen to tim to see where the attacks will come from.
Note again, nothing positive to offer.
I would also concur with other posters above, changing leader will not get them a hung parliament, they are hated and incompetent and will lose.
Its just degrees of loss we are talking about now.
72. Morris - Gordon has told us if the Conservatives get in then it’s the end of the world, the rivers will turn red, their will be a plague of locusts and of frogs, pestilence will reign down on us and all first born will disappear (yikes that’s me).
What can I say we’re doooooomed!
74 - “The ‘battlers’ are very good at winning battles, they have limitless energy. However, they have a habit of destroying everything around them.”
That sounds suspiciously like a description of Gordon Brown.
I wonder what Tesco’s punishment will be? I hope they kept photocopies…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216429/Checkout-girl-chosen-new-face-Tesco-arrested-illegal-immigrant.html
71 - I thought it was going to be a cabinet level resignation. Wayne, your chance to redeem yourself is if your mole is right about an October/November election.
Otherwise, you’ll be tarred with the ramper tag
76. Comres are the Labour party of polling!
79, I’m secondborn
Legislating to bind the next Government’s hands is despicable. Labour are a set of bastards.
And with mes amis adieu!
72 - same question applies “is he mad”
Mandelson btw also seemed to be complaining that the Beeb wasn’t impartial……. Well, he might well be right
O/T Glad to hear Martin Day is ok, hope he gets dealt some better cards, hopefully his family and the break from pb.com will do the trick
I noticed on another thread, some people suggested trying to help Martin get a job, am I right in thinking his profession is in the financial services industry?
I’m in his neck of woods, and i know several people/clients who work in that field, perhaps i can ask them to see if they have something suitable.
I can only repeat - Totally amazing these polls.
Oh again I accept that conferences can be expected to give a boost - but when the LibDems have such a bad conference - admittedly with the usual tub thumping finish - there is still a boost.
On top of which one of its main assets, Cable, had a really bad time.
Just how reliable is the sampling of these polls, how subject to all sorts of subliminal promptings? Will the same people who gyrate to the lib dems now switch tpo Labour after their conference will they then go to the tories?
How do these polls really tell us anything about the electorates dynamic.
Is opinion polling a load of bollocks?
Googling “Gramsci” and “Miliband” together brings up lots of links about Daddy Miliband’s position if one was inclined.
I think the leader part of this poll is a bit of a beauty pageant mixed with name recognition and all it says is anyone would be better than McDoom (apart from Hoon obviously).
Review of babysitting ban ordered
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8277378.stm
Thats a relief, I might not get charged after all!
84 - Yes but a basic “Uk Constitution for Dummies” would disabuse them of the notion that they can.
Is it one thread only now?!
That germany election was boring.
Did we win in the end? CDU/CSU?
72. “during the Marr interview Brown claimed most small businesses would collapse if the Tories got in.”
I do wonder whether Cameron’s line next week is not going to be so much a different set of tractor stats, but more along the lines of “Gordo lied to us, we have proof he lied, why would this be any different”
The “thread of deceit” line could be effective against any number of Labour hyperbolic tantrums, especially when people like Hain claim that their figures are based on the scientific method of “common sense”
68 – “Leyton Orient” death pits, what a silly suggestion.
We have a perfectly good Trebuchet based at Dover for the use of, courtesy of MD and enough entertainment value to sell tickets enough to reduce the National debt.
77 - can’t we just shoot tim?*
* no inducement to violence intended or implied…
On tonight’s poll - well that is now four different pollsters all telling us that the Libdems got a bounce for having their conference, Brown is toast despite all his shadow boxing on the world stage, and Cameron and the Conservatives take a dip when out of the news.
Nothing new, Conference season polls sway with the prevailing party conference in town. Two weeks after Cameron has finished his speech, then they start to tell us about where we are heading in the upcoming GE.
“I also think that many of these responses are nothing more than a test of name recognition. Jack Straw is the best known of the group so he comes out best. Who but political anoraks have heard of Jon Cruddas?”
Mike, you are correct about that. But then Gordon Brown had a great advantage with name recognition in the run up to Blair standing down, and the public were telling us that they didn’t like him. Straw on the other hand, might be the right man as a caretaker leader before a GE for a dysfunctional and collapsing Labour government. I don’t think anyone the public doesn’t already recognise is a serious runner right now. After a GE, when we would be looking at a lengthy contest and debate within Labour, that is the time for someone with a low name recognition to heighten their profile and test it against public opinion.
O/T Just catching up with the weekend threads. Is Gordon Brown seriously going to try and legislate for the right to take any credit for a recovery under a different leader and government?!!!
The man is seriously lost it, and having taken the credit for Ken Clarke’s economic recovery policy back in the 90’s, someone needs to start reigning him on this type of short term political tactics!
The trouble with all these Labour leadership alternatives is that, on examination, they all fall apart.
Big Al Johnson the Postie. “I’m not good enough!”. You said it, Alan.
Jack “skeletons” Straw, leader of the Iraq War contingent. Yeah, right.
David Miliband. One word: bananas. Another word: berk.
Ed Miliband. 17 years old, looks like a boy scout on yabba.
Harriet Harman. A good bet as long as you don’t mind every single man and every single white person voting Tory in reaction.
Peter Mandelson. aka Lucifuge Rofocale, the GOAT of Mendes, the Baal of Hartlepool, the Dark Lord of the Lies.
John Cru-who?
Welsh Labour = LOLBOYO!
Which of Mike’s laws is it that a rubbish poll is one you don’t like?
I agree up to a point that hypotheticals are dodgy: it’s interesting to see both Milibands doing so well, but most of those variations are within MOE. What they do show is that there’s a wodge of respondents who are currently thinking of voting Tory but are open to switching to Labour if circumstances change - in this case a switch in leader, though that might not be the only situation that prompted it.
One shouldn’t overstate this, since the act of asking the question is a sort of prompt. But on this poll, the ‘core’ Tory lead that stays intact no matter what leader you suggest is actually just 5%.
Easterross, thank for letting us all know that Martin Day has been in touch, and that he is going to spend time with his family. I was so worried about him after seeing the underlying cry of anguish that came through in his ranting that night. I wish him the best of luck in his future prospects.
96. “O/T Just catching up with the weekend threads. Is Gordon Brown seriously going to try and legislate for the right to take any credit for a recovery under a different leader and government?!!!”
I enjoyed posting this yesterday:
“Parliamentary sovereignty is a principle of the UK constitution. It makes Parliament the supreme legal authority in the UK, which can create or end any law. Generally, the courts cannot overrule its legislation and no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change. Parliamentary sovereignty is the most important part of the UK constitution.”
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/sovereignty.cfm
If Brown tries it we will be able to answer the is he mad question in the affirmative.
99.Nick P. How do you anticipate circumstamces to change? And do you want a change?
tim / keyboard warrior / plank / asian hater / christian hater / anti-abortionist hater / fat person hater - have you thought of a non-racist excuse for asking how many Samosas were ordered for the Bedford primary.
As for the post at 77, remember SeanT is a worldwide selling author, and you are a racist, smearing, nobody. People read the site because of people like SeanT, and leave the site because of people like you.
On thread my decision to sell my Lib Dem sell this morning has been justified by the move up of the Lib Dems on the spreads. There must be some momentum for the idea that the Lib Dems will gain off Labour what they lose to the Tories.
68 Your suggestion is a sound one, SeanT, and has my support.
The Orient would be a particularly appropriate venue, since the local supporters there so rarely see successful shots.
100 i agree - ty easterross who i have always regarded as one of the better contributors here!
94, not to mention the space cannon and solar death ray!
103 - Have you paid Mike yet?
Dearie me..
I’m just a gifted amateur in reading the runes.
A casual enthusiast in the meteorology of which way the political wind is blowing.
But come along now, when Labour and the Lib Dems are level pegging, Gordon has been asked about his pills and not really given a straight answer, and the Baroness Scotland issue remains unresolved in the Labour Conference week, it would be rude not to ask..
“If these are not the conditions for Labour to consider regicide, just exactly what would it take for them to hand Gordon the pearl handled revolver ??”
On a lighter note, perhaps others would like to speculate what ’signs and wonders’ may be the ‘wind chimes’ that the storm is on it’s way..
Perhaps -
Ed Miliband having a ’secret’ meeting with Lord Mandelson
David Miliband having an open meeting with Alistair Darling
Ed Balls making a speech trying to airbrush his involvement with Gordon Brown while the latter was Chancellor out of history..
Love the Peter Mandelson option, where Labour get 1% (a no-more-Brown bounce?) but the Tories and LibDems lose a collective 4%. Is the idea to make the electorate too disgusted with politics to vote?
107 - Perhaps ‘Albion’ would rather keep his money and pass it onto his children. As any responsible / caring parent would seek to do
107 Keyboard Warrior
92 Ave it. Your worst nightmare !! CDU/CSU lose seats and go into coalition with the resurgent Liberals !! Ho-ho
108. Ah, what you are forgetting is that the Lib Dems had “a disastrous start” to their conference week, and got a significant poll bump. Labour are just following that playbook, to extremes. They will be level pegging with the Tories by next week. Maybe…
108. Ah, what you are forgetting is that the Lib Dems had “a disastrous start” to their conference week, and got a significant poll bump. Labour are just following that playbook, to extremes. They will be level pegging with the Tories by next week. Maybe…
97. But what about Ed Balls? Be kind to poor Ed and don’t forget him next time.
They’ve got to go for Straw then. We know they won’t as the polls in 2006 showed exactly the same trend then. I hope the scores of butchered Labour MPs will not find the “we told you sos” too bitter next year.
112 aaaaaaaagh is that like watford going into alliance with reading?!
AAAAAAGH
99
“Which of Mike’s laws is it that a rubbish poll is one you don’t like?”
Nick, I think it is the one just before the one that says whichever poll puts Labour in the worst position is probably the most accurate.
Quiet close to the one that says whenever he has a choice, Gordon will always make the wrong one.
Scott P - That is rather amusing !
“Ed Miliband. 17 years old, looks like a boy scout on yabba.”
And this is a bad thing how exactly ??
Of course, nobody recognises him or Jon Cruddas either - but somehow do you not think that a nonentity may have the advantage that they cannot be associated with the financial crimes of the past year or so?
When it comes to the election, a lot of people are tribal. As long as they don’t see a leader who actively deters them or repels them or drives them to another party, they might be persuaded to vote according to type.
107. As we have established, tim, the laws of betting rely on a system of honour, where we regard each other as gentlemen until the opposite is proven - and pay up accordingly.
With your anonymity, allied with your brand of ceaseless smearing, you consciously and happily exempt yourself from this code of honour - therefore any bets you make are outwith the rules, and are automatically void.
You can’t despise the rules and then hope to gain from them at the same time. Tut tut.
God Ed Miliband was atrocious earlier. I thought th Labour party was being taken over by a slightly irritating student activist.
112 except they are real Liberals - ones Gladstone & the free trade capitalist Liberals would recognise, the strain of Liberals that joined the Conservatives after WWII and which delivered the Lady. a Whig in opposition to the old Tory wets.
117 Ave it. Oh no, that’s very second division.
Think Eric Pickles in alliance Burger King !!
SDP meltdown in germany!!!
15% swing everywhere like lab 2010!!!!
Con new favourites in scunthorpe/glanford!!
Just like 1983!!!
117 - Perhaps Brendan Rodgers is a visionary after all.
re 52 but did you see the 10 o’clock news on the Beeb, Gordon will be lucky if he has as many as 7 in front of him listening.
Huge swathes of the hall empty to hear his ramblings this afternoon. Perhaps they had all gone to the chemists in search of some Mogadon to get through Tuesday.
The detailed data tables for this poll are on the Comres website . The most unusual aspect is that in this poll the Greens are on an unusually high 7% of the vote . The past vote weightings look comparable to ICM with a 1% bias in favour of the Conservatives . The comparison of how people voted in 2005 with now shows LibDems losing 12 voters to the Conservatives but gaining 9 and losing 3 to Labour but gaining 21 .
I would assume that it was the Independent’s decision not to include Darling in the list of alternative Labour leaders rather than Comres as they would only ask the questions that they are paid to ask .
112/117 The difference is, Ave It, they actually seem to be liberal as in economically liberal (and socially liberal too) so pro-Business anti-regulation, in favour of limited government etc.
101.”If Brown tries it we will be able to answer the is he mad question in the affirmative.”
Seriously, I had to read it through twice. The man is utterly deluded! Is he now the worst PM we have had since the war?
123
i like burger king…
But dont like reading - as you say they are very second division
re 64 Screaming I thought that Wayne was predicting (he’s the man in the know after all) that we should be all a-quiver for a royal proclamation on Tuesday.
122 Ted. I think economic and social liberals. The latter certainly not in the mould of Maggie.
107 tim the £50 is now less because I have deducted 40% tax from it, 10% employers NI, 10% employees NI, 19% corporation tax, 20% VAT fine for paying 2 days late and the 2% penalty I incur on the flat rate VAT scheme to make the final amount after tax equal to minus £3. I also intended to spend the £50 in Euros so that reduces it to minus £5.
So in fact Gordon Brown has taken £55 of the £50. As he does with every £50 I earn.
Next time you are dreaming of your liasons with Brown, can you cadge £5 off him?
plank
129 - Well I still think Eden trumps him as he actually made the country look more ridiculous on an international scale while the Brown brand of bullshine seems quite popular abroad sometimes. Domestically, the man is in a league of his own.
131 - That was my recollection of events too.
120 - As you’ve said before, you know little about betting.
132 What are German social liberals in favour of then?
133 - Surely its easier to say you have no intention of settling the bet.
137 elagabalus. Having an openly gay leader for a start.
137 Wayne has the same reputation for reliable forecasts as Roger (where is he?) and Rod Crosby. He has the same contacts in real life as tim does.
Both are just desperate for some attention in their lonely little lives.
re 110 Grendel - what? He should rather be teaching them that a gentleman’s word is his bond, but then perhaps he’s no gentleman. Easily, solved - he can pay the money he owes tim.
Does Mandy smell bad or something? Even with that closely cropped picture it is clear there are a lot of empty seat around him.
http://page.politicshome.com/images/articles/times_front_page.jpg
138 But you welched on the bet that afternoon Timmy.
121,I saw that interview with ed milipede and thought ‘what a tw*t’but you put it much better than me
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8275008.stm
If Ed is ‘Manifesto Man’, then Peter Mandelson could easily just phone him up one morning and say “Get your coat on. I’m announcing that Gordon is resigning in the next few minutes. Then I’m going to phone Gordon up and tell him so he can write his resignation speech. I wasn’t sure who should take over, but Straw is too old, Johnson doesn’t appreciate the finer things in life and I couldn’t get hold of Balls on the phone. So whether you like it or not, it’s you. And you’ll get used to the idea very quickly. Don’t worry, I’ll tell you what to do every step of the way, so forget about your lack of big job experience. Just get out there and start kissing some babies and flirt with the women voters. Sex sells baby. Ciao!”
138 No tim its easier to call you a racist plank.
Don’t think this has been highlighted before, but i think it’s the quote/analysis of the week
“David Cameron may not have “sealed the deal” with the public, but Gordon Brown most certainly has.”
From Matthew D’Ancona’s column
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/6235035/Labours-problem-isnt-just-the-election—its-what-comes-next.html
141 hi tim#2
Looks like Peter Riddel has finally been taking his Smithsons:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6851384.ece
“There is some consolation for Mr Brown in that the Conservative Opposition is not doing as well as New Labour was in 1996: on 41 to 42 per cent, against 47 per cent then. The way polls are calculated has changed since 1997 and the comparison is with ICM, which was nearest to the current practice in adjusting for the reluctance of voters to admit to supporting the Tories.”
In essence: Brown is frakked.
142 Oracle
There was a great shot on Nick Robinson’s report, with the conference hall more than half-empty despite Our Glorious Leader speaking.
142/150
And if you look at this clip, two minutes in, a pained looking Harriet Harman moves sits, possibly hoping that the ‘gap’ [ON the platform !!] will be obscured for the telly cameras by the standing Gordon Brown..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8277709.stm
The whole thing has a feel that they ordered far too big a venue, and so gives the impression to outsiders that only the hardcore activists have bothered to turn up. That might be excusable for the Lib Dems, but it looks really appalling for the ‘Party Of Government’ in their last conference before a General Election.
140, were you around during the US primaries? If not, you should go back and look at the spreadsheet he posted before you criticize RodCrosby’s forecasting ability.
141 - Good evening Chris.
Heavens, I wasn’t suggesting that a wager shouldn’t be honoured. No, Tim (whoever they are) was suggesting last night that he would rather leave his money to the state than his ‘undeserving children’ on the day he sadly passes over the Styx.
I was merely enquiring last night what sort of parent would prefer this option and thought I would have another go tonight.
Memo to self - perhaps delurking wasn’t such a good idea
Looking at those Con figures, do you get the feeling they are taking the proverbial?
139 That seems eminently reasonable. After all, the Tories in 1979 were an unhappy mix of true (nineteenth-century-type) liberals, “One-Nation” Tories (ie social democrats), and moral conservatives. Maggie’s policies therefore tried to appease all strands of the party - and 30 years on, society has changed and I expect Thatcherite economic liberals would probably take a far more liberal view of issues such as homosexuality now, than they did then.
The real question is are the FDP the sort of social liberals who think that you should be able to do what you want as long as it does not stop other people exercising their right to do likewise - or are they the sort of Guardianista types who think you should be able to do what you want and then ask the taxpayer to support your lifestyle choice?
140 - Roger’s oscar forecasting abilities have been profitable for many.
149 SeanT - Interesting point he makes (which is normally ignored): although nominally Labour were doing better in 1996 than the Tories are now, it is also the case that the Tories never did as badly then as Labour are doing now.
re 153 Grendel my apologies. Posting is more fun than lurking
Front pages
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/monday_27th_september_2009.html
Politics Home seems much faster on the uptake than Sky these days - but doesn’t seem to include the more scurrilous end of the market.
157 - I think it is interesting that the Conservative bedrock is about 33% but the Labour bedrock seems to be quite a bit lower by 5% or more.
128 ty dont seem too bad then! I assume you mean FPD not reading…
153 - I’d imagin Margaret Thatcher would be better leaving her money to a charity, or to the State than to here children, for obvious reasons
148 – Forgive the pedantry, but when you wrote;
“tim / keyboard warrior / plank / asian hater / christian hater / anti-abortionist hater / fat person hater - have you thought of a non-racist excuse for asking how many Samosas were ordered for the Bedford primary”
Shouldn’t the ‘C’ in Christian be capitalised?
Nice to see the authorities can be trusted with confidential information that they aren’t meant to look at
“A MASSIVE disciplinary probe is under way after it emerged more than 300 officers and staff accessed confidential documents about Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard’s arrest”
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2656434/Cops-accessed-Gerrards-file.html
153 Grendel, I’m sure tim will see that you are ‘armless enough…
For those who haven’t seen it, picture of the hall as Gordo gave opening address (hat tip Guido),
http://orderorder.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/gordon_empty_room.jpg?w=480&h=201
Sexism at heart of Scotland case, says Straw
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c739392-ab9a-11de-9be4-00144feabdc0.html
167 - What an utter load of tripe.
167 - Could have been worse, he could have said it was Racism.
162 - Indeed Sir that was the point you made at the end of our exchange. But i wasn’t trying to make a political point as you would hopefully have recognised at the time.
I can only really use my own example in that I have three young children, earn somewhat below the national average wage and would rather every penny I can leave to them goes to them on ‘the day’.
And outside of the political point scoring arena I can’t imagine any parent would want to do anything different. But you seemed to suggest something different for your own offspring if you do truely have any. That was the point!
Bon chance.
169 - Michael White played that card earlier in the week.
167 They insult is by not resigning and then to insult us again.
Utterly pathetic.
99 NPMP
there’s a wodge of respondents who are currently thinking of voting Tory but are open to switching to Labour if circumstances change
I find this too simplistic. I think there are two sets of questions concealed in the polling.
1. Is Brown the right leader? Should he be replaced? By whom?
2. How do you intend to vote at the next General Election?
What the respondents are encouraged to do is to rate the various candidates for replacing Brown in the currency of switched votes. So the favoured (or most recognised) name gets the most switched votes and vice versa.
This ends up telling us very little of value.
I certainly can’t deduce from the results that there is a soft 5% of Tory voters who are open to switching. It seems like wishful thinking on your part Nick.
OK, I must turn in. I am in a noisy hotel in the Aubrac, north Lozere, a truly lost part of central south France. The locals make the good people of Polperro look cosmopolitan by comparison.
I have also been walking 10-20km a day every day. And I nearly got hit by lightning (well, it felt close) as I was striding the Cham des Bondons today.
http://www.versautrechose.com/IMG/jpg/menhir_Bondons.jpg
Spoooooooky.
In other words, je suis tres fatigue. Bon nuit.
171 - Oh I’d forgotten about that.
So when Hain was forced to resign of his donations, it was because he was Welsh/Looks like a recently painted fence?
tim = ***t
It’s great to see such an unexpectedly decisive triumph for the right in Germany, including a fantastic result for the pro-free market FDP. Now the SDP will have four years to squabble with the Greens and Left Party to see who can claim the title of true leader German left, or indeed to see whether anyone can.
159 Has PH become more efficient [and more refined] since Ashcroft took over?
174 SeanT
Like the pics. Are you on holiday with tim?
170 - It really depends on what my children turn out like.
Obviously in my example Mark Thatcher had his inheritance while his mother was at her peak, but I find it a little odd that you automatically assume your children to be a better receptacle for your cash than a library or a hospital.
180 They might not be. But it ought be your decsision.
111 - A keyboard warrior who like his beloved party seeks to rewrite history.
Tim tries to crawl out of the bet when he thinks he has lost and then, well we know the rest.
What a lovely bloke, so neu Liebour
179 LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
180 its all about moving your family forward rather than the labour ***ts and the unmarried mothers
181 - Here, here
172 Can ComRes please repoll Jack Straw’s numbers? I think he may just have sunk lower than Mandy in the next PM stakes. Pillock.
Baroness Scotland. The gift that keeps giving. (Irrespective of race or gender, obviously…)
£170,000 worth of sexism
FPD first move in government in Germany:
tim is not allowed in HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA
174 Ah, that’s where the Beast of the Gevaudan used to roam (see The Brotherhood of the Wolf). Spooky indeed.
I have a mate who lives in the Cantal, not too far away. Not so spooky, but a lovely place. The volcanic landscape round there is bizarre (particularly for an Essex Boy who is used to flatter landscapes) and the cheese is particularly good, I like Bleu d’Auvergne and Salers.
t
i
m
=
l
o
l
180
“I find it a little odd that you automatically assume your children to be a better receptacle for your cash than a library or a hospital.”
Only someone utterly devoid of basic human impulses could write that and actually mean it.
They were right after all. Tim really is a ‘bot’ in every sense of the word.
170 - Erhh - I’ve already paid for hospitals and libraries through the tax system so I feel I have already made a contribution.
Actually I work in a hospital and I know my children rather well so I’m quite happy to make that assumption on the basis of the local knowledge I already have.
So tacky.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216434/Blair-charging-fans-180-picture-taken-events.html
Now that Germany has thrown leftists out of government, there remains only one major European country with left-wingers in charge. People of the UK, will you stand for this?!?!?!
185,well if I go by my tw*t naming on PB,straw comes tops,that’s a good indication on his poll numbers
181 - Does anyone think otherwise?
Or was that a reference to IHT which the Conservatives do not oppose in principle.
182 - How could I think I’d lost when it was obvious his whole story was a fabrication?
143 - exactly, funny how labours little helper airbrushes that inconvenient fact out of history.
Actuallly, tim does serve a useful purpose, because of him I will be even more happy when Liebour are crushed, no work for me next day thats for sure, its gonna be PARTY time…..
all time worst posters on here 2004-2009
1 tim
2 tim
3 tim
4 coldstone
5 senior
166 - Looool when you consider that the press are there making up numbers too.
197 - No honourable mentions for Gabble?
On topic, is it really credible that Jack Straw would bring the % of Conservative votes from 38% right down to 31%? That’s nearly 1 Tory voter in 5…
Seems more likely that some respondents are using these questions as a way of saying which Labour leader they prefer of the ones listed.
190 - I’m sure the Gates Foundation will wind up tomorrow and make their children wealthier
And the Tyndall name will live in the memory longer than the Nobels, or whoever.
197
I don’t remember Gabble being nasty.
I miss Yello Sub and Bobabjobajimbob…etc etc.
71.”I believe a high ranking aid to Darling resigned suddenly and was immediately signed up by Squeaky Osborne. I think it was believed that he was the infamous treasury mole.”
Neither a high ranking aid or the ‘treasury mole’ is the verdict of Benedict Brogan. George Osborne’s new recruit is not his Treasury mole
195 - look back at the thread, you were spinning like a good neu labour stooge to get out of it.
One of us is a proven teller of porkies… and it ain’t me
Strange how you forget these things
Pillgate: That daft old Labour bat on Sky paper review pushing the bunker line (as pre-tested by Tim as always) that she trusts Marr will press Cameron on his drug use
Her pearls on the economy “If the Tories were in power, we’d have no food in our supermarkets now”
Labour clearly going for ‘Back to the 30’s with the Tories’ meme. Harman, or Two Bellies this morning wittering about “cardboard cities and the 1930’s” under the Tories
200 sorry forgot about gabble
204 yes bobajob was a spanner wasnt he….
I hope at the year end mike will give us a proper chance to vote for worst poster of all time.
I am happy to be nominated er sorry i mean compiler of the candidates
204. I do; Gabble probably morphed into one of the Tims.
202.Richard Tyndall’s postings on here suggest his children are lucky to inherit his genes.
Yours on the other hand will be expecting some serious cash.
oh well it looks like its finally underway
this latest comres poll is a clear indication that all options are open
labour has one big advantage here, and that isthat they are in power, and as a result they hold all the most important cards
what they are doing i reckon, is waiting to let lisbon come and go, and see how that affects the lie of the land, and which leader would operate best in that new environment
it may yet mean that gordon brown does indeed hang on, as he may be the man to operate best i the new environment
but the point is that all options are open at this point
gordon brown may yet emerge like the phoenix from the ashes
i really do think that Lisbon is going to be more than just a game changer
its going to be seismic, tectonic in fact
198
Muckguire doesn’t sound like he is having much fun at the Labour Party Conference! After a day of fascinating live updating including revealing he saw Special Branch eating Fish and Chips and is very own version of “what not to wear” todays entries end with,
“Conferences ain’t what they were”
Amazingly the man on the supposedly at the heart of the action failed to make any mention of Marr and the prescription drugs question.
204.SallyC, I miss yellow sub too, but Bobabjobamimbob is I am sure still around here somewhere in another guise. Pennyforthem came and went, and now we have tim.
207 - If you could win elections with hyperbole…
Gabble’s greatest contribution on here, was when he posted some links that were based on Labour smears about the Tory party.
Then someone else posted an actual fact based story that was very damaging to Labour, Gabble’s response was legendary
“You shouldn’t believe everything you read in the papers”
and then proceded to post about 20more links from the papers.
207.”Pillgate: That daft old Labour bat on Sky paper review pushing the bunker line (as pre-tested by Tim as always) that she trusts Marr will press Cameron on his drug use”
Not Baroness Billingham by any chance? And did they miss the whole media gang chasing Cameron back in the Tory leadership contest etc?
Been there, done it and got the T shirt.
DingDang-I am not so -Sure your post is serious.
217 - Yes it’s Baroness Billingham.
oh yes pennyforthem that was a * wasnt it!
tim = no 1 worst poster on downloads and 7 inch hard copy (probably 2.5 inch in his case lol)
Sky newspapers: Case of the fat lady still singing….
219.TSE, I might have known.
220.Shhss, Ave it, I got the hairdryer treatment from URW because I didn’t buy into the story.
221 - Careful, Jack Straw will say you are fattist.
222 its ok URW is bubbling under in the ‘top 10 spanners of all time’ chart
Baroness Billingham is spinning is that Merkel winning is a good sign for Gordon Brown, apparently the electorate like boring, dour, economic competent leaders.
225. The key word there is competent though.
Turns out Hitler didn’t die in the Bunker - either that or he was a woman.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1216455/Fresh-doubts-Hitlers-death-tests-skull-reveal-womans.html
On the drugs issue, didn’t seem to harm Saint Obama much, who wrote in Dreams From My Father,
“I blew a few smoke rings, remembering those years. Pot had helped, and booze; maybe a little blow when you could afford it,”
218 sally
i am serious
the next few weeks and months are going to be as though someone has thrown al the casino chips into the air, and no-one has any idea where they are going to land, or in what pattern
a
its still all to play for
202
My point exactly Tim. I have no interest in my ‘name’ living forever nor in being remembered for anything other than having done my best by my family and friends.
The idea that it is more important to have your name in lights rather than look after your own children is, again, completely alien to most normal people.
217 - Has Liam got any photos left?
222 - You ready to reverse your position on IHT?
Go on, your love of trickle down is purely your proximity to Daves groin rather than economic theory.
Stars and Stripes @194: “Now that Germany has thrown leftists out of government, there remains only one major European country with left-wingers in charge.”
I wonder if the various countries in Europe are finally synchronizing their political cycles so that their left-wing and right-wing parties ebb and flow at the same time, like states move (mostly) Democrat or Republican together in the US.
Would make the EU work much better if they do…
227 - Conspiracy theorists are going to have a field day.
Honduras is revoking Brazil’s right to an embassy in response to the Brazilians smuggling deposed President Zelaya back into the country and sheltering him in their embassy.
210
Ta Sally
229 – Look at the local and euro election results, the polls by all major pollsters for the past year and stop being so daft.
232- I usually reject such connections, but the growing importance of the EU as a governing entity makes the development of the phenomenon you describe increasingly likely.
230 - Admirable sentiments.
But clearly better for Margaret to leave her money to a Sure Start centre than her children.
Let’s hope Compass are accurate in their predictions
Compass think-tank warns that a Cameron victory could mean political oblivion for Labour
Tory plans for fewer MPs, reforms cutting Labour’s link to the unions and Scottish independence would be ‘final blow’ to the party
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/27/compass-labour-conservatives-election-cameron
239 Big Jessies.
231 tim, You are completly out of line
Don’t know if anyone has suggested this yet, but there may be a very simple answer to the rather odd results in the ComRes poll. The question asked only gave the name of the Labour leader, at no point is Cameron mentioned as Tory leader.
Whilst this may be a given, knowing as we do that the Cameron brand is more popular than the Tory brand, it might explain why ‘Labour under anyone but Brown vs. “Tory” ‘- gives a Tory figure close to 2005, and better results for Labour and the Lib Dems.
211
“i really do think that Lisbon is going to be more than just a game changer its going to be seismic, tectonic in fact”
Nah. Even as someone for whom the EU is a massive issue, I recognise that it is simply not something that registers with most voters as a leading issue in the election. There will of course be the matter of trust and how Brown renaged on his promise of a referendum and that will have some impact but only as adding to the narrative.
Whatever the result of the Irish vote and whether or not Lisbon has finally come into force by the time of the election, it is not sonething that is going to have a great deal of influence this time. The choice will be between a party who signed the damn thing and a party which says - however disingenuously - that it will do something to change it. Even if you don’t believe the Tories can do anything they are still a better bet than a party who actively supports closer integration.
At least that is what most Eurosceptics will think.
229 dds
we might believe that if you could be bothered to use capital letters and punctuation
234-Brazil already said it does not recognise this “ultimatum”.
243 Richard Tyndall
I can well imagine the likes of Bill Cash causing a scene at the Conservative Conference.
236
Simon
This is a science, don’t get so worked up
Do you think Peter Madelson has got anything less than huge AI computer systems working on this day and night, cause i bet you he has.
And you mentioned all the previous polls which put Gordon Brown down in the dumps.
Dont you think that there is just the possibility that the population is angry with Brown for NOT giving them the opportunity to vote on him. And that once the Genral election becomes an inevitability, and people will have th eopportunity to have their say, that they might instictively warm to Gordon Brown just a little, or if not him, then someone else, say Straw, whom i’ve heard is still quite popular with the Tory Blue rinsers because of his hardline tendencies.
I’m looking forward to this GE like no other in my life. Its going to be fascinating.
246 The cameras might be watching, but no one else will.
247 – Not worked up, just think you are being daft.
“I’m looking forward to this GE like no other in my life. Its going to be fascinating”
Ditto.
Quite an amusing piece on Brown from Scottish Sun columnist Rikki Brown
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/rikkibrown/2656986/Barack-Obamas-just-not-that-into-you-Gordon.html
246
Why? The treaty will not have been brought into force by then even if the Irish have voted for it. Klaus will take his time over it even if he ultimately decides to sign - which I still seriously doubt. So Cash will have nothing to shout about at that point. Cameron will still be able to say he will hold a referendum as long as it has not been finally ratified by all 27 countries.
As I say I have serious doubts about Cameron’s commitment to Euroscepticism but at the moment the timings will not give him great cause for concern.
227. He’s alive and well and been posting here for years…
238 - Oh come off it. That wasn’t the point of the original discussion was it? I’m talking about doing the best I can to ensure the future of my nearest and dearest. They are more important to me than who is in government and who I vote for will also be judged on that basis.
I have already said where I work and as such some will consider my vote a given as part of the ‘payroll’. But trying to mske political points out of an issue that goes to the heart of our individual humanity does you and those you represent here no credit.
I’m not decided where my ‘X’ will go next year but if cheap politiking is going to be a substitute for an honest debate your contributions have helped me in the decision making process.
Thanks!
247 If you had followed thus site as slavishly as we have; wasted hour upon hour that could have been spent on fine wines, good food, travel, excerise…..sleep, you would know that the answer to your question is ‘No’.
247,Straw hardline tendencies,you having a laugh,was’nt it jack straw shaking hands with illegal immigrants jumping of backs of lorries when he was home secretary.
251 Richard Tyndall
Maybe. I hope so, I don’t want anything to get in the way of Labour being utterly destroyed.
252 That’s Elvis.
Polls simply don’t move that much once elections are underway. Few points here and there and usually a complete rogue about a week before polling day.
All that matters is that Hitler, who comprehemsively lost remember, is dead.
I dont know about anyone else but to me a loser is a loser.
256 - Don’t worry they have dined out with hubris for a long time, but nothing is going to prevent their date with nemesis.
Excellent op-ed from Bruce Anderson
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/bruce-anderson/bruce-anderson-we-are-in-desperate-need-of-good-and-honest-government-1794274.html
Also, i reckon that Ed Miliband is starting to use Green issues as the teleological basis for justified left wing interventionism. And given the climate of er, well, climate change, its almost impossible to argue against.
But thats just one aspect of the new labour counter-attack.
I agree with the general sentiment that the labour party is in a parlous state, but dont forget that the Tory party have generally been a party of ‘oneness’, for want of a better term.
Namely that they are a single issue, albeit rather dependable bunch. I other words you can trust them. Or at least you can trust them to be Tories. They’ll fix the economy, bring back law and order etc etc, but thats it.
But original they are not.
new Labour on the other hand are like a multifaceted chess playing, election winning machine, whose sole purpose is to win elections, and very little else. And in this they are formidable.
In the next election, the Tory party aren’t just going to be playing chess against a single player. They are going to be up against a myriad of ideas and strategies. They are going to have be on full alert right up and till May.
Can they do it. We’ll see.
On the other hand, Jackie Ashley advises holding your nose and sticking with Labour
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/28/time-look-again-back-labour
No nosepegs for Mrs Marr
“It is the time to look again and back Labour once more
We’ve all kicked it up and down the newspaper columns and TV shows, but this remains a party with the right instincts”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/28/time-look-again-back-labour
261.
Love this line:
‘Where was Lord Mandelson? After all, he is supposed to be running the Government. Someone ought to.’
263 - Snap
263 So Gordon’s staying then.
Anyone got any sympathy for the bookies?
Bookies £0, punters £7m as high-scoring matches bring winners and losers
A glut of high scoring games and favourites winning in the Premiership has set the gambling industry on one of its worst runs of luck in living memory.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/6235107/Bookies-0-punters-7m-as-high-scoring-matches-bring-winners-and-losers.html
The front page of the Metro newspaper has a picture of Brown in the Marr interview that speaks a million words. Sky News has it as number 10 in their sequence of front pages.
267 - Looks like it. I wont complain.
262 said ‘ new labour on the hand are like a multifaceted chess playing winning machine,whose sole purpose is to win elections,and very little else’ or a bunch of lying bast*rds.
264 - Can can they write this c##p,
“But unless you actually want a less fair future, the time to rally round has arrived.”
So according to Mrs Marr ignore all the failing, ignore all the sleaze, ignore all the incompetence, ignore all the spinning and lying, Vote Labour for a more equal society.
She does realise that social mobility is down and getting worse, and that the gap between rich and poor has been widening, and all this UNDER LABOUR and after they have told us they have pumped countless billions into this.
Front pages from Sky (10 of them, instead of the 5 on Politics Home)
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/National-Newspaper-Headlines-Monday-September-28/Media-Gallery/200909415393516?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15393516_National_Newspaper_Headlines_Monday_September_28
PoliticsHome = hare
Sky = tortoise
?
272 - I’ve often found that facts have no place in the Guardian’s comment section.
-What are those numbers on the front of The Times? C 28-32%, Lab 23-28%?
227. I seem to remember that the guy we were discussing last week, who said “Hess” wasn’t Hess, also wrote a book called Doppelgangers in which he claimed the bodies in the Chancellery garden weren’t Adolf and Eva [the female had shrapnel wounds, apparently.]
And we know the Russians actually found the corpse of Hitler’s double, Gustav Weler, which fooled them for a while.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5yMtzQ8OWcY/SOiaWrFsrzI/AAAAAAAAAOk/IIM8pYo37tM/s400/sosia+de+hitle+2.JPG
275 LondonStatto
I think it’s comparing Conservative poll ratings pre-1997 with Labour ratings now.
275 Its something to do with Tory ratings before they lost to Labour and Labour’s polling now.
Do we believe Nick Griffin? Might have to adjust my betting accordingly.
Nick Griffin has warned that the BNP is on the verge of collapse and has written to every party activist appealing for money, The Times has learnt.
As he prepares to make his debut on BBC1’s Question Time next month, the far-right leader urged supporters to hand over £150,000 to “keep the wolves at bay”. He said that attacks on the party were to blame for its ailing fortunes, singling out Operation Black Vote, which campaigns for ethnic minority candidates. Mr Griffin accused the organisation of trying “to flood the party in order to take over and destroy it”.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6851702.ece
275-LS-I guess it refers to this:
“There are several similarities in the polling position of M Brown and Labour now and Sir John Major and the Tories in September 1996. Both are behind their main challengers. Labour is slightly worse off, at around 24 to 28 per cent, compared with the 28 to 32 per cent of the Tories 13 years ago. Similarly, both leaders trail well behind on personal ratings, notably of being in touch, up to the job of being prime minister and of being decisive.”
SeanT
posted the link(150) .
Why do I always press submit before?
277/278/280. Thanks.
279 It’s probably just a rouse to get some cash in before an election. He’s got the publicity now.
See tim has run Christina off with his digusting remark.
Seems her hubby has run him off in return.
Why have the media dropped the Baroness Scotland story? She seems pretty ripe for decapitation. Either she is lying or Ms Tapui is - there is no middle way.
And if Ms Tapui only has a passport which was invalid at the time of being employed, then it seems that Baroness Scotland is in deep deep trouble.
Are they saving the front pages up to cause maximum embarassment on the day of Gordon Brown’s big speech?
264.”Remember the appallingly overcrowded and insanitary hospitals that led to the huge rise in health spending; remember the rotting Victorian sewers; remember the schools where pupils had to dodge rainwater; remember the underpaid nurses and underpaid doctors? With hindsight, knowing that a huge global financial crisis was going to come, slashing the tax base and swelling welfare bills, Labour may have spent too freely. But there were good reasons for it. Few people did see what was coming”
Appalling article from Jackie Ashley. PS, was educated under the Tories and worked in the NHS under Thatcher and Major. The words champagne socialist don’t even begin to cover the twaddle she has written. And I remember getting a cracking payrise under Thatcher, and at a time when it could buy me my first flat easily because we didn’t have the inflated housing market we saw develop under Labour.
279 - I might sign up, from the article
“The party has devised a special life-membership package, costing £395 which includes a watch inscribed with F.S.I.D — Freedom, security, identity, democracy — as part of the opening offer. New members also get a life-membership certificate parchment scroll and a limited edition signed portrait of Mr Griffin, as well as a gold embossed life-membership card”
Ah you’re back Good.
284-I think you spoke too soon!
289 Its a habit of mine.
290 - It’s a habit for most women.
Only joking.
287. Mmmm, where was the watch made, I wonder.
Henry Macrory really needs to stop
http://twitter.com/HenryMacrory/statuses/4421977843
He needs to leave this gutter stuff to Guido. He is everything I hate about attack-dog spin doctors.
286 - It would appear the Ladies of Labour, both Jackie & Polly, are as utterly shamless as their pay masters.
291 Good job I am Tory
The Socialists in Portugal lost their absolute majority today but will stay in power probably in coalition with the hard left ‘Left Block’.
I think this means big problems in Portugal if it happens as the hard left are on another planet called “Leninliteland”. But not as far out as the CDU which is led by the old Stalinist Communist Party.
Perhaps Socrates will have a burst of common sense and go with the other middle of the road party the CDS-PP.
But I won’t bet on it.
295 - I’ve learnt this weekend, never to say anything “funny” to a woman every again.
284.SallyC, thanks, Fitaloon spotted it first. It was the most disgusting insult I have ever had on here by a long shot, I was even tempted to email Mike about it. And yes, I nearly didn’t bother posting again, I am getting pretty fed up to be honest. For some reason, tim really doesn’t like me. He can get pretty nasty in his pops at me whenever I dare to mention the casualties in Afghanistan.
But he really scrapped the barrel there, unnecessary and unwarranted.
But then, he knew it would cause genuine distress when he posted it.
298 - Don’t let the little sod drive you away, pb would be poorer with your absence.
I’m sure someone has already emailed mike about that comment.
297-Why?
297 - I’ve learnt, my humour is most unsuited for a woman experiencing pregnancy mood swings.
297.TSE, no, you just don’t say it when they are pregnant and hormonal. Years from now you will laugh about it all, honest. And wait for it, her revenge will come later, you have I doubt even contemplated that one yet.
302 - I’ve taken the advice that was given on here about 10days ago. I’m beginning every sentence to her with
“I’m so sorry dear, it’s all my fault, what would you like me to do”
297 One day the sun will rise on a land run by Tory’s and men will be able to be publically ‘funny’ about women once again without fear of castrastion [unless it's about their wives, of course, especially pregnant ones].
My team has won! Finally, after 11 matches.
It demeaned him, not you Chris.
305 - Congratulations.
Darling also calls for large amounts of money for climate change
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CVuS8Uj4d4
So Tim is doing his Bernard Manning routine again this even, quelle surprise!
I thought he was otherwise engaged today with “guests” and a Pavlova. If it was the Asian family, who run the neighbouring farm, may be they cancelled after getting wind of his patter over the last few days on PB!
Grammar and spelling gone the way of the country - to pot - so it must be time for bed.
Night all, especially to my fellow blue harpie
307-Thanks. But it’s almost certain that they will go to the second division.
305.Congratulations! I had to be the baddie a few weeks ago when the kids wanted to stay up and see the Argentina vs Brazil game at some godforsaken time in the early hours of Saturday morning. I still cannot believe they got drawn against each other?
Am I right in saying that Argentina didn’t qualify for the world cup, if so, is the first time its happen?
299&306.Thanks to both of you.
285 wibbler
Why have the media dropped the Baroness Scotland story?
If we believe in the gospel according to St Guido, I suspect that the story has been put on ice for a couple of days. Guido writes:
The only alternative explanation which would support Lady Scotland’s story is that Lolo did in fact obtain a second passport from the Tongan High Commission in London or from the issuing authority in Tonga. She could then feasibly have faked a permission to stay stamp in the passport. The UKBA investigation is going to find out the truth this week.
312 - All South American teams take part in a league format for World Cup qualifying so they always play each other. But with the top four teams qualifying Argentina and Brazil always (well until now) qualify.
Brazil are the only team to play in every World Cup.
312 - And Argentina are not out yet but they are currently not in a qualifying position.
314&315.David, thanks for the info, I don’t know a lot about it. But the kids seem to think that Argentina will not qualify, and that would be big news?
315. David Roe.
They’re currently fifth (2 games left), which would put them into a playoff with the fourth-placed CONCACAF team.
…and their remaining games are at home to bottom-placed Peru and away to sixth-place Uruguay. I’d be shocked if they didn’t finish at least fifth.
312-Thanks Christina. There was no draw. It was 3×1, but I missed the game! Anyway, Argentina is not out yet, there are 2 games to go. Then after that, if they carry on being fifth, they will play against the fourth place to see who can go the Cup. But others have explained already!
Anyway, did you kids liked?
312 No.Brazil are the only country to be ‘ever-present’ at every football World Cup since and including 1930-I would walk upstairs and reach a textbook,but lo and behold,at the grand old age of 38 and a half,I am on the verge of being X-rayed for early onset of osteo-arthiritis-I can now happliy walk for 200 meters before having to stop for a couple of minutes.
Never mind,I’ve moaned abot nutjob motorists-when I’m 50,out on my mobility scooter,I will wreak havoc!
BTW-you are a special,nice (all of you on pb.com) load of people=lets hope Martin day is soon back,and all the best for now,I need some comfort food-got to get some pleasure in life!
*like it?
317 Argentina
If Gordon were to offer Maradona luck, it might it improve Argentina’s hand-eye co-ordination.
Looks like I spoke too soon
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2657479/Quiz-Baroness-Scotland-over-maids-passport.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216572/Push-Baroness-Scotland-face-new-quiz-housekeeper.html
A pity these stories aren’t plastered on the front pages.
Labour need to be roundly punished for the monsters of their own making.
318-Agreed. I don’t think Brazil will win this Cup, and I hope it doesn’t. Dunga is too arrogant.
The Labour Conference:
http://blogs.journalism.co.uk/editors/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Lab09JT021lores.jpg
322 wibbler
Trying to read between the lines it looks like the passport ‘Lolo’ Tapui used to enter the country was out of date by the time she was employed by Baroness Scotland.
Tapui has admitted in her Mail on Sunday interview that she obtained a forged visa:
When her [then] employers began a routine check on their workers’ immigration status, a Russian in her bedsit premises said he ‘knew someone’ at the Home Office and offered to renew her visa for £180.
She insists she thought the stamp was real. But when it ran out in 2006, she did not apply for another.
Tapui denies having applied for a new passport from the Tongan authorities.
It is not explicitly stated that the forged visa was entered into the expired passport, but this is a reasonable assumption.
Baroness Scotland claimed and has reaffirmed that she checked Tapui’s passport and found it to be in order.
If the passport checked by Baroness Scotland was the entry passport which expired in 2006, then she should not have accepted it as valid. If it was a renewed passport, then it may have been valid.
For Baroness Scotland’s story to be credible, an assumption would need to be made that a forged visa appeared in either the renewed passport or both passports. I guess in a court of law, a defendant that has already admitted to forging a visa in one passport would find it difficult to convince a jury that a similar forgery had not been entered into a renewed passport.
Hence the emphasis in the Guido account on whether the Tongan Consular Service renewed Tapui’s passport. If it is confirmed they didn’t then I just can’t see how Baroness Scotland can avoid being accused of lying.
Popcorn time.
“Labour’s sinking ship and its mutinous crew”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1216596/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Labours-sinking-ship-mutinous-crew.html
325 amendment to last line
accused of lying = accused at best of negligence (failing to note the passport had expired) or at worst of lying.
Goodbye FPTP…..
“Hain signalled that Brown was ready to announce reforms to the voting system. It is understood there will be a bill in the Queen’s speech this autumn that will set up a referendum on ending the first past the post system in Westminster elections.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850951.ece
328 RodCrosby
Are you sure we are reading the same article? The relevant section on electoral reform is:
Hain signalled that Brown was ready to announce reforms to the voting system. It is understood there will be a bill in the Queen’s speech this autumn that will set up a referendum on ending the first past the post system in Westminster elections.
“There is an emerging consensus in the Labour party that we should change the electoral system,” he said.
The ballot, which would happen after a general election, will propose the “alternative vote” system where voters rate candidates in order of preference. “It would help repair the gaping chasm of credibility which exists between citizens and politicians,” said Hain.
If a voting reform bill does become law, it would be a “poison pill” for an incoming Conservative government. David Cameron, the Tory leader, would be forced to decide whether to use political capital and parliamentary time to repeal the legislation.
So it appears this is just nuisance legislation designed to embarass and frustrate a successor government.
What odds do you give that FPTP will be replaced as a result of the proposed bill?
Good luck getting it through the Lords.
I think, at this stage, the Lords can delay anything they choose to - though my knowledge of Parliamentary timetabling is rather scant.
Here is a simple guide talking through the actual procedure, but without any detail on timing.
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/flash_passage_bill/index.html#/commons
328. Very crafty of Labour to schedule the referendum slightly after election polling day. To all intents and purposes it will run in parallel with the election campaign, but Labour can dodge the accusation of wrecking or fixing the election. They may well pick up LibDem tactical voters, and it is an open invitation for Labour supporters to vote LibDem where it matters - just flexing their AV muscles, so to speak…
330/331. The Lords signalled they would pass AV in 1931, but the government fell before they had a chance to vote.
Labour won’t make that mistake again.
The Lords should reject it outright on two grounds: (1) attempt to bind a future government; (2) Rejection of Jenkins proposals.
RodCrosby
You really do your cause great harm in supporting this proposal for electoral reform (it that is what you are doing).
A discredited government on its last legs and facing catastrophic defeat seeks to move the electoral goalposts in its favour. What’s more it doesn’t even have the courage to attempt to enact legislation it claims it believes in: a sort of ‘hunting ban’ type fiasco.
And Hain claims “It would help repair the gaping chasm of credibility which exists between citizens and politicians”. It would do nothing of the sort: it would only increase the gaping chasm.
If you are a true believer in electoral reform you should disassociate yourself from this initiative at the earliest opportunity.
Vince Cable: Why my ‘Mansion tax’ is fair
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/opinion/article.html?in_article_id=491201&in_page_id=19&in_author_id=2326&position=moretopstories
335. I am a pragmatist. Anything is better than FPTP, in my view.
I predicted this two years, ago, btw. Perhaps I’ll change my name to Nostradamus.
Hung Parliament and AV.
My own psephological Orgasmatron!
337. RodCrosby: Anything is better than FPTP, in my view.
Why?
Rod Crosby
I know it is the middle of the night at a time when things tend to go bump, but you should keep your Orgasmatron fantasies to the privacy of the boudoir.
Labour have made an absolute hash of constitutional reform. They have used it as a tool to further a perceived class war and their own party political interests.
Any government, of whatever colour, promoting constitutional or electoral reform should rise above party politics and act in the best interests of the country. This means long and wide consultation, multi-party consensus and active public debate. Reform should only take place after this process has concluded, preferably following support in a national referendum or, at a minimum, with fully worked, supported and consulted proposals included in a manifesto commitment.
Anything less would be political deception.
Hung Parliament = LOL
The only thing that is hung around here is EZIO! 10 inches of solid man-meat!!!
338. The flaws of FPTP were identified many centuries ago, and thinkers have striven to improve upon it ever since.
We’ve covered this ground many times, and I’m sure we will again presently - but not tonight.
http://blogs.journalism.co.uk/editors/2009/09/27/labour-conference-wearies-political-hack-and-its-only-day-one-lab09/
if the snp get 30 seats out of 59 that is amandate for indpendence without areferendium, that is why cyclops wants to change it, and get back into cosy coaliations with the tree huggers. be they greens with 5% which all adds to the labour vote and a majority of liberal voters.
it works for labour in oz, they are always outvoted in the primary count by the liberal (tory) party, but get votes thru AV to slip over the line. last election won by rudd wa sno different. they call it 2 party preffered as it squeezes the 3rd parties.
341. RodCrosby.
It’s a shame, then, that AV is actually worse in those flaws than FPTP.
Unless, of course, you consider (as you do) the ability of the Tories to get a majority is a “flaw”.
redcliffe62
If the SNP get 30 seats out of 59 that is a mandate for independence without a referendium
I would have thought it was a mandate for a party which supported independence for Scotland to govern under existing powers. It would probably also be a mandate on the basis of a manifesto commitment to pursue negotiations with the UK government for the realisation of Scottish independence.
FPTP R.I.P.
1310-2010.
Unmourned, except by Neanderthals [and Tories]
346. QED.
334. Once again, you are caught out as a bullsh1tter hiding behind a fancy name.
No it isn’t. It’s equal or superior in every criterion, except, very rarely, monotonicity…
Mr Crosby, I previously thought you were intelligent, informed and articulate, although misguided.
Now I question my judgement.
Please admit that you are drunk and reassure us that your wisdom will return with sobriety.
348. RodCrosby.
It’s been demonstrated to be less proportional in real-world situations (rather than theoretical simulations) due to is bias against the most hated party.
350.
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong.
I’ll show you why another time. [or, better still, just search my posts on this subject about 2 years ago]
351. RodCrosby.
Better that you show the Electoral Reform Society. And Lord Jenkins (well, his Commission, anyway).
I’m willing to believe them over a green inker of the second order.
Multiple Response Thingy
Nick Palmer wrote the Lembit story has been discussed here, but even people like me who detest SS apologists (we were only fighing for freedom etc.) don’t actually feel that Lembit is responsible for his great-uncle’s views, so the Mail’s being pretty silly about it. I dare say we all have a few skeletons in the family closet if we go back far enough.
Indeed so - my third cousin once removed is Shirley Williams.
alex What a stupid system. CDU votes go down from an average performance last time, and their hold on power increases.
The same thing happened in the UK in 1983 under FPTP.
Jon C Forgive my ignorance but have they got one of those profoundly silly systems like the “top-up” in Scotland? The proportional bit, if you must have one, should take no account of the FPTP seats, or it’s self-defeating in my view.
You’ve got it completely the wrong way round - the whole point of the top-up additional seats is that they do take the constituency seats into account, and the correct numbers are added on to make the overall number of seats proportional [subject to the "overhang" seats, which are a minor complication]. If you just add on the proportional layer without accounting for the constituency seats, then you end up with a very disproportional result - which is exactly what happened the other week in Japan. If you prefer such a system, then fine; but it wouldn’t be anything to do with PR which is the purpose of the German system.
Jack W Are the Greens or the FDP likely to win or come close in any constituency ?
The Greens won a constituency seat in Berlin - the Green candidate got 46% and was way ahead of the other parties.
Chris A can anyone enlighten me whether the German threshold works at federal level or lander level?
Federal.
runnymede I bet around 50% of Lib Dem voters think that either Kennedy, Ashdown or Campbell is still Lib Dem leader.
In 1999 when Paddy Ashdown announced that he was resigning as Lib Dem leader, I overheard some Conservatives speculating that David Penhaligon might take over as the new leader.
SallyC Turns out Hitler didn’t die in the Bunker - either that or he was a woman.
You have summarised the report inaccurately. The report merely says that a fragment of skull which was tenuously connected with the bunker and had been thought to be that of Hitler is now known to be that of a woman. The evidence that Hitler committed suicide in the bunker in 1945 is overwhelming, and depends on far more than just a small bit of skull bone.
LondonStatto It’s a shame, then, that AV is actually worse in those flaws than FPTP.
AV is worse than FPTP in terms of proportionality; AV is better than FPTP in terms of the accountability of a single MP in a constituency. One has to choose which one prefers. Meanwhile, I am overwhelmed with contempt at the Labour government’s pathetic attempt to bribe the voters with a crumb of an unsuitable system which is nothing to do with PR. There is no way that it will be passed or enacted, even if Labour gets a majority in the GE.
Jenkins undermines his own conclusions, without even noticing.
“…many electors did a sort of ‘do it yourself’ AV and voted for whichever of the two opposition candidates they thought was the more effective challenger…”
Geddit?
354. No.
But since you’re not going to win that argument, explain me this:
49.9% of voters prefer A>B>C
25.1% of voters prefer B>C>A
25.0% of voters prefer C>B>A
Why does B win?
346
“Unmourned, except by Neanderthals [and Tories]”
And true democrats.
356. Richard Tyndall: And true democrats.
Given Rod’s posting history, he probably considers them Neanderthals.
Mind you, given Rod’s posting history, he’d probably prefer a dictatorship to a democratically-elected Tory government.
Never mind that in a dictatorship Supreme Leader Brown might name this journalist as his successor:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Baroness Scotland and her cleaner - which one’s the liar?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1216580/DAILY-MAIL-COMMENT-Baroness-Scotland-cleaner–ones-liar.html
355. Well, A can’t and shouldn’t win since he/she is a Condorcet/Mutual Majority Loser.
i.e. but for the intervention of B (or C), A couldn’t win.
B wins because he/she is the most popular within the “mutual majority” set.
Even A’s supporters are not displeased, since B was their second choice.
A perfect AV result, in other words…
Elementary examples bore me.
Next!!!!
359
So the system is designed to elect the least hated rather than the most liked? And why exactly is that more democratic?
359. RodCrosby.
Right, so you think it’s more important that the most hated loses than that the most liked wins.
I can’t understand that mindset, but I’ll accept it.
Next!!!!
OK, then.
49.9% prefer A>>>>>>>>>B>C
25.1% prefer B>C>A
25% prefer C>B>A
Why does B win?
360. Because the most liked may also be the most hated, by an even larger margin, as in the example above.
AV is not designed to elect the least hated, as can be seen by changing the first line to
49.9 A>C>B
C is now the “least hated”, but B is still elected, as before.
NEXT!!!
362. RodCrosby: the most liked may also be the most hated
So what?
361. AV cannot record intensity of preferences, as you well know…
NEXT!!!
Sunder Katwala actually gets something right!
Fabian general secretary Sunder Katwala argued that Labour had to stop the focus on the Conservatives. “I think we do risk talking too much about the Conservatives. Even if it is true that Conservatives haven’t changed, that’s not Labour’s main message.
http://www.nextleft.org/2009/09/balls-and-dale-slug-it-out-over-tax-and_27.html
354. RodCrosby: AV cannot record intensity of preferences, as you well know…
Exactly! Which is why your attempts to put it forward as excluding the most hated from winning are doomed to failure.
363. “…by an even larger margin”, I said.
Majority Rule, anyone?
NEXT!!!
in oz, it is when parties pass their votes en masse to a party that they least hate that the whole thing gets rigged. if individuals can vote green say, with the option to have their vote for the liberals and not labour as an automatic second option then that would be helpful.
your vote is automatically counted for the other party unless you make the effort to try and stop it.
it is geared totally towards a 2 party system.
as the liberals in pomgolia are not the most hated they might sneak a few more seats by default.
it will howver mean people can vote for the bnp knowing they can pick another as a second choice and their vote still counts. i.e. it is not wasted on someone with probably less than 5% of the vote but will influence who wins. assuming the bnp agree to transfer votes to one party in preference. say the one least vociferous against them or most anti immigration?
in oz the right wing party was shunned but got up to 20% of the vote and no transferable votes from the other parties. it makes statto’s point valid, they could be leading by a huge margin and the others could gang up and play “swappies” and they would not get a seat. i can see clegg and cyclops’ successor being right into this little game as a means to bring about democracy, i.e. self preservation.
theoretically it is possible to get your own vote to be transfered to the party you want, by ticking all the boxes and not writing “1″ against the preferred party, but not many do it.
writing “1″ and letting ate parties do the sorting out is the normal way it is done by most voters. frankly most like in those scottish elections do not even fully understand the voting system so writing “1″ is an achievement and it avoiuds spoilt ballots. it and of course it is encouraged by some parties more than others…..!
367. RodCrosby: Majority Rule, anyone?
You cannot legislate an artificial majority when none exists.
As some on PB may know, I am based in Manila in the Philippines. Bloody hell, the weather over the weekend was quite unbelievable. I understand from the news that there are over 100 now dead or missing.
The rain was not as momentarily intense as some I have seen (Angola comes to mind) – but Jesus, it just went on and on and on for a day and a half at a driving, hard rate more intense than any I’ve seen in the UK. Apparently during the peak period we had a month of rain in under six hours – and a month of rain in the Philippines’ typhoon season is a shitload!
Much of Manila was underwater – now receding. What a muddy mess.
You may have seen some footage on the UK news.
The Philippines has 4 seasons: Hot, Hotter, Wet, Wetter.
We are now approaching the end of Wetter and looking forward to Hot.
As some on PB may know, I am based in Manila in the Philippines. Bloody hell, the weather over the weekend was quite unbelievable. I understand from the news that there are over 100 now dead or missing.
The rain was not as momentarily intense as some I have seen (Angola comes to mind) – but Jesus, it just went on and on and on for a day and a half at a driving, hard rate more intense than any I’ve seen in the UK. Apparently during the peak period we had a month of rain in under six hours – and a month of rain in the Philippines’ typhoon season is a shitload!
Much of Manila was underwater – now receding. What a muddy mess.
You may have seen some footage on the UK news.
The Philippines has 4 seasons: Hot, Hotter, Wet, Wetter.
We are now approaching the end of Wetter and looking forward to Hot.
368. You are alluding to “Above” and “Below” the line voting in Australia, I think, which only applies to the STV Senate elections, IIRC. The ability of parties to distribute Above the line votes to the candidates of their choice effectively degrades the superior STV system to the wholly inferior list-PR.
I would be amazed if this goes on in the lower house AV election. Tell me it’s not so!
Anyhow, if AV is introduced for the British HoC, there is no suggestion that we would not have an “open” choice of 1,2,3 etc for whichever candidates we prefer. Anything else would imply inter-party collaboration, surely?
372. RodCrosby: I would be amazed if this goes on in the lower house AV election. Tell me it’s not so!
That doesn’t, but - insanely - for a vote to be valid the voter must number every candidate regardless of whether he actually has a preference between them!
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/How_to_vote/Voting_HOR.htm
362
That is the lowest common denominator type of politics. There is no democracy there, just bitterness.
Electoral system Fun
Consider
25 EDABC
24 DEABC
18 ACBDE
17 BCADE
16 CBADE
FPTP, and the London Mayoral system elect E
The French 2-round system elects D
Bucklin elects C [Bucklin was used in some US elections in the 1900s]
AV elects B
Coombs elects A [Coombs is a theoretical system, so far unused in real elections]
Which is the better, or right result?
Answers on a postcard…
This sounds quite interesting
Seeking the truth about spending cuts
By John Ware
BBC Panorama
http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front_page/newsid_8275000/8275774.stm
SV would probably elect D in real life (since it’s fairly clear which the final two would be) - depending how strongly the ABC voters feel about their preferences between D and E.
OK, time for bed (said Zebedee)…
Boing!
377. There were loads of wasted votes in each of the Mayoral elections, so your theory doesn’t really stack up.
Anyhow, for the purpose of example, I assumed “honest” voting.
Today’s Labour conference looks pretty boring
http://www.labourlist.org/labour_conference_timetable
The “How should the left engage with British Muslims” (John Denham, Martin Bright, Ed Husain, Tahir Abbas) might be interesting.
There’s a moderately intriguing “Is this the last chance for a progressive coalition” with Vince Cable and Charles Clarke - somewhat spoilt by Mastermind David Lammy.
David Miliband apparently thinks foreign policy is going to win votes for Labour. !!
But it’s a pretty damning indictment that the most eye-catching event by far is entitled “Who are the New Conservatives” - with Philip Blond, Tim Montgomerie, Fraser Nelson and Tim Horton (chaired by Polly Toynbee).
The theoretical examples of AV as given in 376, 362 and 356 are contrived, sillytastic and unreal. I prefer real-life examples. I prefer AV over FPTP for the straightforward reason that it ensures that the winner has more than 50% of the votes, whereas in FPTP the winner could easily have only 35% or 40% of the votes. AV allows people to vote efficiently without having to guess which candidate is going to be the most efficient in getting a desired result. In other words, people can do AV properly instead of doing an imperfect do-it-yourself version as described in 355.