Lib Dems get 4 point ICM boost in a week
September 26th, 2009
CON 40 (-3) LAB 26 (nc) LD 23 (+4)
But will it be there after the conference season?
After last night’s YouGov poll showing a three point increase in the Lib Dem total there’s a new ICM poll out for the News of the World which is showing the same broad movement - Labour at a standstill, Nick Clegg’s party up with the Tories down.
Another trend, not seen by YouGov but reinforced by ICM, is the continued decline of “others” - which is now down to 11%. YouGov yesterday had this at 15%.
The comparisons are with the Guardian ICM survey which came out on Monday evening.
The Lib Dem progress now being shown by two pollsters will provide real cheer for the party after a conference which perhaps did not see the pre-election unity that they might have hoped for.
But what the conference did is give them exposure and there’s little doubt that this is a key driver of Lib Dem numbers. In a general election campaign, of course, the broadcasting rules come into play and they get an assured level of coverage.
The big question in the short term is whether they will hold onto these shares as we move into the Labour and then the Tory conference weeks.
If experience of recent years is anything to go by then they will see a slippage - but how much?
The Tories might be concerned that they, and not Labour, have taken the hit - something that might provide a bit of boost as Labour delegates arrive in Brighton.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first!
‘Tis ere.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/523529/Gordon-Brown-could-still-win-election-according-to-exclusive-poll.html
The fall in the Consrvative vote may be because the Lib Dems simply ignored Labour and sepnt a week hammering the Tories. I have read the NOTW article and for the life of me I cannot see why they put such a pro Labour spin on this Poll.
Mike, am I right in thinking that the huge marginals poll due out in the next couple of weeks was all conducted before the Lib Dems conference?
So that should really give us a detailed idea of the state of opinion just before Conference silly season started?
You should expect a significant bounce in Labour support after Brown gives the speech of his life next week.
People like to see greedy fops get a kicking.
That’s what the Lib Dems polling groups said
Another great poll for the Tories and nothing there to give Labour a boost.
I don’t think the LDs will be on 23% a fortnight from now.
5 That’s the what, 3rd, 4th speech of his life?
It’s interesting how conferences do give a bounce. The election campaign will be interesting in terms of the effect on polls carried out during it.
6
“1. first!”
And yet simultaneously confirming yourself as such a loser…
Good old Gordon…
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/523532/PM-pledges-to-HALVE-Britainrsquos-financial-black-hole-in-four-year.html
5 It will need to be the speech of TWO lifetimes,up there with pivotal historical momnets of the 20th C -possible,I grant you,but..
3
After the terrible couple of weeks that Labour have had, and the Tories are only on 40%, that must be some sort of relief, (not much, but some) for them.
All it needs is for Labour to pick up 2% and the Tories to drop 2% and we are in Nomaj territory once more.
Congrats to the Libdems, they may go from strength to strength after this, who knows!
6. “People like to see greedy fops get a kicking.
That’s what the Lib Dems polling groups said”
Lord Levy
Peter Mandelson
Peter Hain
Baroness Scotland….
11 - “to force police to organise monthly community crime sessions with local residents and answer their queries about local police initiatives within an hour.”
Sounds like out of the resident can fight for CCTV policy that was part of the last relaunch…or was it the relaunch before?
Short-term bump. People still have no idea what LibDem policies are after their Conference. Is the Mansion tax official policy? If so, where does it apply England and Wales? Scotland too? Is it on the net value after the mortgage is deducted? And what are students being told on tuition fees? Where do the LibDems stand on child benefit - means-tested or not? And how many of the party are behind each of these measures? What is going to be in the Manifesto?
There are still issues on which they have little time to resolve and get out to the voters. And there is still no simple message that defines what the LibDems are about other than “none of the above”.
re 4. Yes - my understanding is that the marginals poll was carried out before the conferences.
re 5. Agree - I expect something of a conference boost for Labour. Brown will make a good speech and the whole party will unify behind him - just as they did with IDS in October 2003.
re 7. URW - what price will you give me on the LDs getting 18% or more at the general election? I have an evens bet with PfP at 17%.
If there is 3% Fast Show voters then it should be:
40 Con, 29 Lab, LD 20 at the end of the Labour conference
43 Con, 26 Lab, LD 20 at the end of the Tory conference
“to HALVE the Treasury’s deficit in four years. But he says: “We should protect frontline services and continue to invest in a high growth, high employment future.” ”
Well, hurrah for that. And here was I thinking that any real attack on the deficit would of necessity decimate services. I can vote Tory now with a clear conscience……
If ‘no majority’ occurs,after the stick meted out by many to Rod Crosby,I feel Rod would be entitled to a huge,long gloat!
OT
DUBLIN (Reuters) - Irish supporters of the European Union’s reform treaty outnumber opponents by more than two to one, according to an opinion poll to be published Sunday, days before a second referendum on the issue.
The Red C/Sunday Business Post poll showed 55 percent of voters backed the Lisbon Treaty, a fall of seven points from the last poll two weeks ago but some distance ahead of the ‘No’ side, which increased by four points to 27 percent.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE58P1VL20090926
The Lib Dems share of the vote at the General will be inversely proportional to how large the gap between the two main parties is on election day, I predict. I suggest there are more than a few voters who don’t particularly want to vote Conservative but will do if there is a chance of Labour clinging to power. If there seems little chance, they’ll vote LD instead.
Why do you expect the Liberal Democrats to tell you precisely what will be in their manifesto, Mark?
You Conservatives refuse even to hint what might be in yours.
Patience, boy. All will be revealed in due course.
19 Halving debt by 2014 would at least bring it to ‘relative respectability’-you can take the hairshirt mindset too far,and get told where to get off
Labour at 26 points is towards the lowest range in ICM polls (think there have been two 25’s and one 22) so it suggests that there are very few voters still to be prised away so movement is likely to be between Conservatives v Lib Dems v others.
As for the NoTW “Labour could still win” - 48% saying there is a slim chance isn’t the greatest boost (it’s one of those times you want to see the odds they would consider putting cash on: is a slim chance 10/1, 25/1, 100/1?). Looks like the media longing for a story change, something other than ‘PM is cr*p, when’s the election?’
“to HALVE the Treasury’s deficit in four years.”
Is that like his promise to balance the books? When was the last time he cut the deficit, 2001? Since then his “predictions” have consistently been way out.
15 Don’t think it matters but it seems what the public want to hear.From my point of view Labour has to go on the attack, we have nothing to lose, labour has been on the defensive far too long.
10
Dont forget your homework on Monday morning….
7 I’m not surprised that Labour didn’t move as they’ve received no negative incoming so far conference wise - perhaps if the survey had included Gordon’s World Statesman Award [but only stayed 15 mins as it was that prestigious...]
16. Mike Smithson.Do you see a sign on my door saying “URW. Free Gifts on Application” ?
You don’t see it because it isn’t there !
Everything has a price however but I doubt we can haggle sufficiently to find one satisfactory to both parties.
28 Wonder if 10 is an Arsenal fan?
27
“Everything has a price ”
Have you set that book up yet?
It’s unsurprising that the Tories rather than Labour get the hit because the Lib Dems concentrated their fire on the Tories rather than Labour. Sadly for tim’s fop-knocking theory, if the public really did regard the background of the Conservative leadership as an Achilles heel, I would have expected to see Labour profit in the polls as the party of the proletariat.
This is a good poll for the Lib Dems, right at the top end of what they would have hoped for. How much of this uplift remains in a month’s time is the $64,000 question.
26
Need someone high profile to open your shop? Write into No10 and claim to be a world body that has decided Brown is Leader of the Year. He’ll be round like a shot…..
Sunday papers - will Max Clifford go to the NotW, the Mail, the Express or the People with the housekeeper revelations?
Remember the Tories are desperate to keep Brown going till the GE.
The story in the News of the World gives the Labour leadership machine false hope.
Part of being played by Murdoch i expect.
20 - I agree with that strongly. That, I would say, is one of the keys to the next election.
28.I am the man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
I have two words for the other sort.
1. Civilians.
2. Mugs.
27 Hear,hear.
Reading into the entrails of the NOTW story in full,it may be that perceived lack of experience,gravitas etc in the Shadow cabinet could be a theme for a prolonged ‘near-term ‘ campaign by Labour in the New Year (remember the prolonged blitz from January 1992 till the April 1992 electon,questioning,nitpicking every lasat minutae (oftyen totally disingenously) against the Shadow Cabinet of Neil Kinnock?
It does lend the kernel of an idea for a negative-defensive campaign by Labour in the New Year in the likely run-up to the actual spring poll
29. Another reason for the Tories to have taken the hit is if the Fast Show voters, when there’s no conference or other big media circus like the G20, all congregate on the party with the best TV performer.
Good news first.Highest Lib dem share since ….end may 2009 when ICM Sunday telegraph had 25%!Before that highest share of 23% was end January 2007.
Such a pity that Comres dont have a poll this weekend.Applying -ICM swing of Con-3%,Lab nil Lib +4 to last Comres poll would give Con 37%,Lab 24%,Lib 25%-that really would have caused problema at the Labour conference-so Gordon may escape again -good news for the Tories.
Will the Lib Dem bounce last?No in 3 weeks tim eit is likley to be back to Tory 43%,Lab 27% Lib 19%.
The Lib dems will be left with the longer term problem of being perceived as droopping their committment toabolishing tuition fees-bad news for the age grouping with strongest Lib Dem shares andfor their prospects in University constituencies.
Brown to halve the deficit within 4 years is a lie.
Polls during conference season are a nonsense as we all know; the swing towards the one in the media’s eye will inevitably increase their name recognition and unless they eff it up totally - they’ll get an artificial boost.
Why are we even discussing this as we’ve knocked it on the head many times before ?
Happy to be wrong
21 “Patience, boy. All will be revealed in due course.”
So you think these “little wrinkles” of having no recognisable identity can be ironed out before the election….? You’ve had your conference kid, and left Bournemouth with more questions than answers trailing after you.
But you clearly know what you are going to tell voters on the doorsteps. I just hope you turn up canvassing my house!
Line Betting The German Election
URW pointed out a market called 2009 Federal Election - Party Vote Percentage.
It is Line Betting.
I never bet that way. But I will in order to prepare myself for the UK GE…
So let’s say I wanna bet on the CDU Vote Percentage.
Actually you can buy at 34.3 and sell at 34.7
As per Betfair (modified for our market):
Line Betting is an even-money (Odds: 2.0) bet on the Vote Percentage. The ‘Line’ refers to a line of numbers representing all possible results. In order to bet, you either ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ the Line at one particular ‘Price’, depending on whether you believe the final result will be above, or below, this Price.
For example if you bet and ‘Buy the Line’ at 34.3, then you expect the CDU to get more than 34.3% of the vote. Likewise, if you Sell the Line at 34.3 then you expect it to get less than 34.2. If the CDU gets exactly 34.3 then you neither lose not win.
[URW : can you answer this for me: ] If you buy CDU at 34.3 for £100 and it scores 35.4%, then your net profit is £?????.
[What if the CDU gets 32%? How would I lose?]
In summary, Sell the Line when you want the result to be less than the Price you sell it, and Buy and Line when you want the result to be more than the Price you buy it.
43 O/T Do you really look after 19 kittens (as stated earlier)-that is so-o-o cute-I can imagine them all playing,looking at what’s around them etc.
Guess you look after animals full-time-no time to paws
Reposting from last thread
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/6235035/Labours-problem-isnt-just-the-election—its-what-comes-next.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6233760/Hundreds-of-spare-seats-going-for-Gordon-Browns-last-supper.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1216169/PETER-OBORNE-The-illegal-housekeeper-baroness-brink-Labour-incapable-cleaning-British-politics.html
Yes tim, everyone is crying out for 5 more years of Liebour, try talking to non political people, your party is loathed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8276049.stm
Labour must expose the Tories, Welsh Secretary Peter Hain said on the eve of the party’s last major conference before the general election.
The Tories had been “given an easy ride by everybody,” he said.
Yeah, the last 10 years have been a cinch.
38. It’d be interesting if it was possible to prove somehow and put an actual number to it.
Evening all, so another mid-conference season poll for everyone to get overexcited or overanxious about. Frankly let us take stock in November when things should be clearer, and also we may know a bit more about the general economic situation and with the PBR due around then we will certainly know how dire the public accounts are.
Going O/T some people will be advised to avoid the cable channel Yesterday next week as they are having a “Blair Week”.
29 - The Tories are vulnerable but not with Brown in charge.
That’s the only important factor.
Cameron govt by default anybody?
Just one observation after the last few months events is that we now know Lab’s core vote is 26%. That feels about right even if I don’t personally understand it. Conservatives never got below that either, in fact slightly more at our worst position. Generally it seems that main party core vote is in the region 26% to 30%.
44 Things can only get better.
Line Betting is notoriously tricky,PM and Aaron will be able to answer your specific QS.
For example if you buy at 34.5 for £10 you win £10 at 35.0, but if you Sell at 34.5 you lose £10 at 35.0.
I am not certain how the intermediate fractions of a percentage point work but you can’t win or lose more than your original stake.
Aaaron ? Shadsy ? Help !
44. What does a “Blair Week” involve? Is it hosted by John Rentoul?
So the LibDems can have a shite conferance, use the most abusive type of attacking behaviour we have seen, stand for f4ck all yet seem to be loved!
Well we now know what the tory’s need to do at there conferance to get a boost. All come out swearing abusing every other politician In site, be totally disorganised then maybe they will get a poll boost !
So the LibDems can have a shite conferance, use the most abusive type of attacking behaviour we have seen, stand for f4ck all yet seem to be loved!
Well we now know what the tory’s need to do at there conferance to get a boost. All come out swearing abusing every other politician In site, be totally disorganised then maybe they will get a poll boost !
So the LibDems can have a shite conferance, use the most abusive type of attacking behaviour we have seen, stand for f4ck all yet seem to be loved!
Well we now know what the tory’s need to do at there conferance to get a boost. All come out swearing abusing every other politician In site, be totally disorganised then maybe they will get a poll boost !
Got a letter from the Customs and Excise about unpaid National Insurance payments in the financial year 2007-2008. £405 to be precise.
I rang the `help` number as I am employed by the government to inquire how this had happened. Stewart, twas his name, told me that the government has two years to tell them and hence me, that any government employee had paid their contribution.
I moaned a bit and blamed the culture of labour bollox (I live in Northern Ireland) and the said Stewart fellow said I was not to blame the voting public.
Well I do. Three times this shower have been voted in. There are millions who would still vote for them again. They probably do not read this blog as it does not instruct how to claim benefits.
Re 48.I don’t think this is a LINE Bet Phillipe because it specifies a Max of a 100 and intervals of 0.1 %.
This would imply a Spread Bet and normal Spread Betting rules would apply.
50/51 Wayne - so good you posted it twice
And yes, its true - the oxygen of publicity has added some name recogonition…for Mr Clegg, it will be short lived until he comes up with a kiler line.
Interesting example of the political classes calling it wrong as quite often happens. I thought, in common with most here, that “Lib Dem splits” would knock them in the polls. In fact, people don’t pay that close attention to political news, don’t read between the lines and the message people got was “Lib Dem radicalism”.
Perhaps a betting lesson - don’t over-analyse and try not to look at things too closely. Just take the brief overview and get a feeling of it.
42 Hain also said that the Tories were talking of “savage cuts” - his BBC interragator didn’t query that “wasn’t that Nick Clegg?” might have spoilt Mr Hain’s flow.
Cameron & Osborne must get Nick Clegg & “Savage Cuts” closely associated before the election - it was a gift of a quote.
“In fact, people don’t pay that close attention to political news, don’t read between the lines and the message people got was “Lib Dem radicalism”.”
It might even have been just “LibDem”, a reminder they exist.
49 - I imagine it will be a vacuous vanity project punctuated by glimmers of hope but ending with nobody really understanding what it was all about. The terror is the week after, are Yesterday having a “Brown Week”??
I did think that Wayne was tempting fate a couple of threads back with this:
“The poll and theTelegraphs explanation of it are total codswallop!
1. Yougov don’t weight on certainty to vote. For instance last months Yougov would have had the tory’s on 45 points if this was included.
2. Apart from the crap about all leaders being less popular than their party’s,theTelegraph also stated that the tory’s struggle to keep above 40.
ICM are a far more accurate and reliable pollster, right back to. 1997 and further.”
RE 53.I am now totally confused….just like any civilian or mug !
The Party Seats Line on our GE states a maximum of 650 Seats but is not a Spread Bet.
So go back (for now) to my original assertion that you cannot win or lose more than your original stake.
46 “Generally it seems that main party core vote is in the region 26% to 30%.”
I think Labour are in the odd position of having two core votes: Old Labour with about 30% and New Labour with about 20%. The 25-26% is a kind of split difference which is what makes me think the election when it comes could be very shocking indeed if it’s only the lower core that turns out on the day (or vice versa if it’s the upper one).
Has no one BAXTERED this?
It gives a Tory majority of 48.
I expect, in reality, a 14% lead over Labour would give Cameron more like a 60 or 70 seat majority.
Interestingly, the LDs still lose a few seats on this performance.
57 - They don’t normally get that sort of boost from a conference though.
58 “are Yesterday having a “Brown Week”??”
No. That will be in Channel 4’s “3 Minute Wonder” slot….
“you can’t win or lose more than your original stake.”
Ok then.
It’s less exciting than I thought. I confused it with spread-betting…
I’ll try to open an account with SP1N in november.
URW — my answer is stuck in the moderation trap! But thanks!
The result tells us nothing other than the fact that the LibDems managed to secure 24/7 TV coverage for close on a week during which time they criticised the Tories no-stop and called David Cameron a “Con Man” - an accusation for which the Tory Leader was offered no opportunity of redress.
Will Merkel’s own popularity be the thing that swings this election the CDU’s way? Apparently Merkel gets anything upto 49% of people saying theyd vote for her directly, which must have a massive pull effect on the CDU vote.
My only bet was on the CDU/SPD option and the slight weakening of the CDU themselves has increased my sense of value on that bet.
71 -
75: Yes, Merkel leads Steinmeier as best leader by a huge 47-18 (see http://www.faz.net/s/Rub4D6E6242947140018FC1DA8D5E0008C5/Doc~EA5264CCFA1F44372AA0272265D879E15~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html )- and that’s taken after the TV debate which she was widely thought to have lost. But the party race is still tight, especially as the PDS tends to score slightly higher than their poll rating (’shy communist syndrome’). She’s clearly staying as Chancellor, with I’d guess a 60% chance of it being with the FDP.
Next weekends polls will see the Lib-Dem boost vanish and Labour will get a 3% increase. Then the weekend after the Labour boost will vanish and the Tories will get a 3% increase. Then a couple of weeks into October we’ll finish up back where we were last week!
70. I’m afraid you are just projecting your hopes on to these numbers dear fellow.
75 — Good luck Yokel! — I will sweat for the CDU-FDP!
But I reckon your bet — probably @ 2.5 — has more value than mine (less than even). I hope the electoral arithmetics of the Election will give me a winning 50$ punt!
On betfair :
—> Merkel to be next Chancellor : Last price matched: 1.07
I vividly recall that Obama was trading between 1.06 and 1.08 on November the 4th last year….
74 Exactly. As far as the Tories are concerned, only the case for the prosecution has been made, and that in due course will be shown to have been based on fabricated evidence, perjured witnesses and contaminated DNA. And next week, we will get the equivalent of confessions extracted after water-boarding.
But the jury will see through it. Normally, they would be bought off; but these days there isn’t even the money to do that…
The weird and wonderful conference season polling begins!
Lib Dems on 23%?! Do me a favour. I bet it lasts anout, oooh, 4 days, until Labour’s conference. Labour too will get their turn at a 3-4% bump, then the Tories, then it’ll be as you were:
Tories 42
Lab 26
Lib Dem 20
Irrespective of the merits or otherwise of LD policies or their criticism of other parties and their leaders, it is apparent exposure on TV appears to deliver positive results for them. Come the election that can only be a positive for the LDs especially, as has been mentioned earlier in the thread, a significant number of the electorate is not overly bothered by policy per se. For many Clegg will be a fresh face.
11. “Good old Gordon…”
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/523532/PM-pledges-to-HALVE-Britainrsquos-financial-black-hole-in-four-year.html
Isn’t that like putting out half a fire? Good old Gordon indeed, twelve years on and still without a clue.
**** BETTING POST ****On the “GISEr” betting, (Greatest Irish Sportsperson Ever)George Best into 11/8 from 6/4 with Boylesports. Paddy Power look to have pulled their market. Hills stillgo Best at 2/1. I’ve gone in again!George Best is the “GISEr”!
NPMP : “She’s clearly staying as Chancellor, with I’d guess a 60% chance of it being with the FDP.”
I’d agree with that : giving that the “overhanged seats” arithmetics is apparently giving a hedge to the CDU, and seeing that in virtually every polls where the CDU is losing points, the FDP seems to gain some anyway…
Lord Mandelson is likely to give his key backing to rising star Ed Miliband as Labour’s future leader, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6234401/Lord-Mandelson-to-back-Ed-Miliband-as-future-Labour-leader.html
Ed Miliband as leader of any serious political party = LOL
You’d be better off with Ave It!!!
EZIO!!!!!!
The key question is whether FDP gain in paralell wuith CDU loss actually leads to the same seats in total between CDU-FDP or less. The impression I have is the electoral system makes the CDU/CSU vote more efficient.
45 Philippe , in every single German state/national election since 2005 except Hamburg in 2008 , CDU/CSU have performed worse in the actual election than the pre election polls forecast .
WTF?
The Prime Minister uses an interview with The Sunday Telegraph to signal his plan to bind this and future governments into years of severe spending cuts – and potential tax rises – to reduce the deficit.
At the same time, he claims to identify with the “mainstream middle classes” and declares that he will always put their interests first.
The move represents a final throw of the dice for the Prime Minister, who has seen the Tories’ opinion poll lead over Labour widen during the recession and who has faced demands from his own side to quit.
Mr Brown will argue at Labour’s annual conference on Tuesday that it is “fair and responsible” to bring in a Fiscal Responsibility Act that will legally commit current and future ministers to bring down the debt — which is expected to rise by £175 billion this year alone — by specified levels. Precise details are yet to be hammered out but senior Labour sources said it would be introduced in the next Parliamentary session.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6235277/Gordon-Browns-plan-to-win-back-the-middle-classes.html
87. A better choice than Bananaman who started this morning by cheering up the Iranian Ambassador with his ‘tough’ talking on Radio 4.
There are puppies and kittens that are scarier than David.
91 - Compare,
“plan to bind this and future governments into years of severe spending cuts – and potential tax rises – to reduce the deficit.”
with BBC,
“the prime minister said he could get the economy under control without massive cuts.”
So which is it?
91 you mean a law to force Gordon to behave in a prudent manner ?
WTF indeed
91. You can not bind the hands of a future government. They are free to abolish or amend any legislation and withdraw from any treaty.
91 Ah, the scorched earth strategy reveals itself. He’ll splurge now, then pass a law to force the Tories to cut and tax to pay for it.
Also begs the question, he is in charge why the need for a law? Oh I forget, New Labour, New Legisation, and of course Gordo special form, get the Tories at all cost, ho ho ho, I will pass a law to tie their hands, ho ho ho….
Saying that, you can’t bind future governments so I’m just being idiotic.
Friedrich or Anyone,
Can you answer Yokel’s “key-question” @ 89?
re 91. Fiscal responsibility from a government that plans to borrow £175 billion this year, and £173 billion in 2010. Simply ridiculous.
Apologies if this has been posted before but WTF!
Lord Mandelson: I would work for the Tories
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850863.ece
From the horse’s mouth:
“Parliamentary sovereignty is a principle of the UK constitution. It makes Parliament the supreme legal authority in the UK, which can create or end any law. Generally, the courts cannot overrule its legislation and no Parliament can pass laws that future Parliaments cannot change. Parliamentary sovereignty is the most important part of the UK constitution.”
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/sovereignty.cfm
So unless the mad-man Brown is about to change the ‘most important part of the UK constitution’ that story is cobblers.
101 he as deluded as the rest of them. twice fired and he think DC will ask him to do some work……
101. Wow.
Mandy says he would work for the Tories, and Gordo plans to implement Osborne’s Office of Budget Responsibility.
I can almost hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth from here.
Should be a good week
“45 In every single German state/national election since 2005 except Hamburg in 2008 , CDU/CSU have performed worse in the actual election than the pre election polls forecast .”
Yes. Yet I have this persistent feeling that Germany is slightly shifting to the Right. Hence my smallish bet on the CDU/CSU-FDP.
For anyone who never saw “Indecisive Dave” from the Fast Show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQoPcUXyf3g&feature=related
101 - Hell will freeze over first.
re 95 “You can not bind the hands of a future government. They are free to abolish or amend any legislation and withdraw from any treaty.”
Obviously the Conservatives could repeal a Fiscal Responsibility Act (named after the missing ingredient in Labour’s case), but your statement is not true. International law is quite seperate from UK law. Although Parliament can remove the legal effect of a treaty in UK law, the UK cannot withdraw from a treaty, in international law, except as provided for by that treaty, or future such treaties.
101 I think I’m going to be sick.
101 “Speaking to The Sunday Times, Peter Hain, the Welsh secretary, said he would never accept a job under the Conservatives.”
Words fail me.
110 - Are Labour taking their cue from the Lib Dems on how to start a conference in disarray?
104. …cont.
Actually, it all makes sense.
By what possible means could Gordo and chums get re-elected? Campaign as Tories!
“They seem to be popular, let’s join them!”
OT, but lest we forget…
Why is Scotland still in a job? Several of The Guardian’s inexhaustible supply of expensively educated liberal idiots have been arguing that either her race and background should make her immune to the normal laws of the land, or that as attorney-general she was following a certain moral law which argues that Lulu was a nice person who had been here, albeit illegally, for quite a long time and that therefore to give her a job was an empowering recognition of her right to live in this country.
Well, sure — all well and good if that’s the way you feel about illegal immigrants. But it’s slightly different if the woman doing the employing has dreamt up those very laws in the first place and is responsible for seeing them upheld. The stance exemplified by The Guardian’s writers — whichever way you look at it, as liberal public school-educated journalist or normal human being — would be hypocritical, no?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rod_liddle/article6850734.ece
It strikes me that, if you want to try and claim you can still win, talking about accepting jobs or otherwise from the other party isn’t quite the way to go about it.
112 - Yes but they aren’t going to win with that sort of strategem, because of a comprehensive lack of authenticity.
Labour implementing a law to legislate spending cuts?!
Derek Simpson will be delighted, I wonder how much Union funding they will get if they put it into practice?
101 - so let me get this straight.
The tories are evil and will destroy the country….. but he will work for them anyway.
Talk about trying to look out for number one.
OT, PP, Obama - tim & S&S are correct: too early to tell.
OT, PP, Sarah Brown - give her maximum brownie points for not dropping the “h” from Pittsburgh!
Question: the (seeming) fact that SB is less crazy than her predecessor CB - is this a plus for her hubby? Or could it (strangely enough) be a minus?
Is it NuLabour or NuTories who are saying, “Where’s Carole Caplin when we need her?”
ON PERSONAL NOTE - press o’ business has driven me away from PB until now, and could do same for rest of 2009 election season. Am involved with two statewide initiative campaigns: Approve Referendum 71 (civil partnership, state law all-but-the-word marriage for gays & also hetros) and No against Initiative 1033 (cap state taxes using 2009 as base, which is like using 1937 as base for defense spending). Also candidate for Seattle City Council and aspiring appeals court judge in the wilds of Snohomish Co.
But great to be back for a brief visit. Esp. after reading the reaction re: Martin Day. Good luck bro, and glad to be a pber!
Also OT, but this is GENIUS!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/series/question-time-politicians-interview-pundits
87. It doesn’t take a genius to pick Ed Miliband for leader, he hasn’t photoshopped himself into pictures or cheated on his expenses and he doesn’t resemble a porky Nazi. He’s decent-looking (unlike his freaky brother) and he’s not Harriet Harman. Congrats, Ed!
117 -”Talk about trying to look out for number one”
It was ever thus…
Meh. Delayed pb2 article, but it’s almost impossible to find value. Still looking. Sorry for the delay.
From proven ramper (so obvious warnings) Henry Macrory,
# Tin hat time for the Baroness
Another reason to detest this Government
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850938.ece
“During the defining operation of his Afghan tour, the recapture of the Taliban stronghold of Musa Qala, Mackay was furious to be asked by Downing Street if he could delay the operation and spare potential embarrassment to the prime minister, who was due to visit Afghanistan, if things went wrong. Mackay refused.”
Words fail me on this………..
Good luck to you too, SSI!
122, incidentally, for those considering betting Renault do not have KERS, I think. Worth knowing.
From that same article I linked to above
“It’s a joke,” said one officer recently returned from Afghanistan. “We can only hold them for 96 hours and then we have to hand them over to the Afghans. If we can’t do that, we have to let them go. We end up releasing about half those we capture and they just go off, join their friends and come back to attack us.”
NATO policy it seems but WTF????????
108. “Although Parliament can remove the legal effect of a treaty in UK law, the UK cannot withdraw from a treaty, in international law, except as provided for by that treaty, or future such treaties.”
Fair point, I should have said free to withdraw from treaties that have the necessary provisions (as many do). But as you point out that doesn’t mean they’d be enforced. Our national laws would have primacy even if we were to break a treaty commitment. The point though is that Brown can not bind the hands of a future government in any meaningful way, such talk is nonsense.
120. diane
Ed Millband was also the director for the country’s long term economic planning.
Game over.
“he doesn’t resemble a porky Nazi”
Poor Herman.
Floater
The worst sort of war is one which you don’t fight to win.
110 Chance would be a fine thing!
Darling is on manouveres…..
Plans for swingeing hospital cuts as NHS on brink of ‘Armageddon’
Health service managers warned of an “Armageddon scenario” facing NHS finances as they draw up secret plans for swingeing hospital cuts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/6234845/Plans-for-swingeing-hospital-cuts-as-NHS-on-brink-of-Armageddon.html
I wonder if the managers are including themselves in these plans?
128 99% agreed, although Brown has already bound future parliaments with his European Union (Amendment) Act 2008.
135. Unless we leave the EU, probably some time around 2017 when PM Boris Johnson tells the French just what he thinks of their ghastly food.
My gut feeling is that the 3% boost for the Lib Dems will be in place in two or three weeks time…
Philippe
The reason for my CDU-SPD bet was indeed because of value. In the big scheme of things I could certainly be a bigger volume trader but refuse to do so. I rarely back a less than evens, which in political betting means I do take on favourites regularly and my win rate reflects that.
My own feeling was that the CDU-SPD option should tighten with the CDU last week wobble and then maybe I can play the markets if I want or let the bet run. The other thing is the FDP profile. Their support has grown substantially with the middle class who I suspect would otherwise fall into the CDU camp thus the somewhat parallel CDU fall/FDP rise looks logical.
The problem is that the CDU-FDP has frighten the horses potential. Some fear that such a coalition may just be a bit too free market and this may depress the CDU side vote and perhaps solidify what vote the SPD have. Whilst some CDU voters may drift FDP at one end where do the CDU voters go who feel that the link with the FDP may be a bit too radical? They either go CDU anyway, dont vote or perhaps this time go SPD. Whatever way though if the CDU fall, the potential shed isnt just to the FDP but also partly just plain away from the preferred CDU position.
This of course it just a theory aboput to be tested. I do have an interest in German electoral politics that stemmed from when I was a high school student of politics and chose Germany as a country to study. I’ve kept that interest over the years.
OT. Mail on Sunday has the Baroness Scotland Housekeeper interview…..
“We end up releasing about half those we capture and they just go off, join their friends and come back to attack us.”
They don’t have camps for preventive detentions? Can’t they neutralise, or suspend, those insane rules ordering them to “release” the enemies in the wild?
129. Doesn’t Cameron have some economic boo-boos in his past? It’s nothing that can’t be cleaned up!
Ed Miliband has the two most important qualifications for leader–he’s clean on expenses and as far as I can tell he doesn’t look or act like a freak. Of course, that doesn’t mean he would win an election, just that he would get the chance to contest one.
FPT 174 Wish I could be like David Watts, babababa David Watts. He is the head boy of the school, he is the captain of the team….
by Dyed in some wool somewhere September 26th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
David Watts is also the Lib Dem PPC for Broxtowe.
His comments on being smeared by Nick P, and Nick’s subsequent public apology are here:
http://cllrdavidwatts.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2009-05-07T22%3A44%3A00Z&max-results=14
136 One lives in hope…
only a couple of hrs left for Wayne’s major news story?
“My gut feeling is that the 3% boost for the Lib Dems will be in place in two or three weeks time”
You’re a LibDem supporter so you would say that.
139 Or just not capture any prisoners?
Haha, as I struggle to find any value I came across this line from commentating numpty Legard (from yesterday evening):
“I’m tipping Jenson Button to win his first race since the Turkish Grand Prix in June.”
Could still happen, although it’s presently 54/1
“Doesn’t Cameron have some economic boo-boos in his past? It’s nothing that can’t be cleaned up!”
Are you serious?
Being in the mid 2000s in charge of long term economic planning for the country isn’t a ‘boo-boo’ its clear evidence of complete incompetance. People will be paying higher taxes for generations to make it for it.
And he does look like a freak and has very little empathy for the average voter.
If you want next generation Labour leadership James Purnell is by far the best.
137 Irfan, you don’t by any chance know of a blog that would back up your gut feeling do you?
Baroness Scotland housekeeper claiming see never showed passport to her and was never asked to.
147 he has been very quiet of late……..
BBC Breaking News - Cleaner disputes Baroness Scotland’s version of events in the Mail on Sunday, looks serious.
146. MD. Having seen the fuel adjusted grid, I am backing Rosberg. I think he is faster than Vettel, and I think Hamilton might throw it into the wall again.
89: Yes, an ‘overhang’ seat is a seat which the PR system doesn’t entitle you to but you get anyway because you’ve got a huge vote in one state. So I’d think the CDU-FDP would work more efficiently if votes pile up for the CDU, since the FDP get most of their seats via PR rather than local majorities.
There have been no German polls for days - not sure if they’re banned in the final stages?
Milliband2 was number 3(?) in the chain of command behind McDoom and Herman though - i think people will see him as being too junior to blame (even if not true). Similar to Cameron and Lamont.
144 and 148.
No I am being serious, if I don’t think the Lib Dem is not going to achieve that then I wouldn’t say it.
Just see my previous blog posts on poll reviews and all look at the Lib Dem current points, targets and if they will achieve the target…
So if Baroness Scotland is exposed as a liar and forced to resign will she be struck off (or whatever happens to lawyers)?
And can we assume the police will now take action against her?
If she had done the honourable thing are resigned immediately the story came to light she would have enhanced her credibility.
Instead she could well end up as Labour’s equivalent of Jonathan Aitken.
“Baroness Scotland housekeeper claiming see never showed passport to her and was never asked to.”
Gosh. Who saw that coming.
Daniel Finkelstein has an interesting comment on why governments can be slow in cases like this.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2009/09/the-sad-death-of-piers-merchant-at-the-age-of-only-57-inevitably-reminded-me-of-the-1997-election-and-the-sex-scandal-in-whi.html
Baroness Scotland insisting she was shown documentation and a passport.
Could somebody please ask her what exactly was in the letter from the Home Office? Was it a doctored student visa letter? If so, should also ask her why no alarm bells ringing about a student being a full time housekeeper. Also Scotland already claimed she knew a reasonable amount about his women and her personal life, didn’t wonder about how being a student fitted into all of that? No questions about uni ever came up etc etc etc
Yokel : “the CDU-FDP has frighten the horses potential. Some fear that such a coalition may just be a bit too free market… …the FDP may be a bit too radical”
So you reckon that this election is about keeping the statu quo while the boat is sailing in troubled waters, rather than about Merkel being given more freedom to actualize what she really wants for Germany?
The mood of the german electorate is more about stability and moderation than about a change of speed and more power to the actual captain?
You might be right.
Thanks to share your analysis with us.
152, article’s more or less done now, so be posted shortly.
Rosberg could win but he’s only 2.5 on Betfair which is ridiculously short for… wait a minute, I was looking at the wrong market
14.5. Hmmm. Would you mind if I borrowed that tip for the column? With credit to you, obviously.
138 Mail on Sunday has the Baroness Scotland Housekeeper interview….. Well there’s a surprise - NOT!
85 stjohn - Good spot by you on Giser, sadly Hills took it down just as I was attempting to top up. At least I grabbed some of their 3/1 odds ten days ago.
Question: what’s the strangest thing that’s happened at this year’s UK party conferences?
Another question: does anyone know when David Cameron is going to visit US and meet with Obama?
Ask this one re: supposed “snub” of your PM by my Pres. Of course this a hardy perennial; was just re-reading bits of A. Campbell diaries where he talks about this in context of Kinnock-Reagan & Blair-Kinnock.
My guess is that relationship between Obama and Brown is similar to that between Clinton and Major.
>> Major (or at least his govt) was clearly rooting for re-election of George Bush the Elder in 1992. Now that’s pretty standard (the perfidious Albionian you know vs the one you don’t) but then Tories over-did it a bit (rumaging through immigration records).
>> At same time, back then most Conservatives, including many wet aristo types, felt affinity for Republicans, and visa versa (think this is less true today).
>> Clintonistas cottoned on to Tory/Major bias for GOP. BUT after winning election, Clinton’s interest as President was in building best relationship possible with whomever was running dear Old Blighty.
>> But of course Bambi and New Labour were much better natural fit for Elvis and “new” Democrats. Which led to Luv(ie) Fest.
>> Hangover from this was that Gordon Brown and Labour Party retained a big woodie for Clintons even after the cold shower of the Iraq War. Indeed, fact that Bill didn’t drop Blair, Gordon & Co like a hot stove after they went gaga over W reinforced this.
>> Which meant that Labourites (mostly) were blind to the attactions and potential of Obama. (Personally tried to redress this in my own very feeble way, but no go.)
>> So there is little warmth between Obama & Dems on one hand and Brown & Labs on other. Plus the fact that key players in O admin (most esp the nitwit press secretary) are clueless about Brit politics, media, etc.
>> Of course they are clued-in enough to realize that David Cameron is almost certainly the next Prime Minister. Just as Clinton & Co were clued in pre-1997 that Tony Blair was going to give John Major a major asswhupping.
>> As a result, Obama and his minions will (unless they take leave of their senses) strive to show respect to the Power that Still Is at Westminster, while at the same time sending positive signals to Cameron and giving him a good reception when he gets to smell the roses at the White House.
“If so, should also ask her why no alarm bells ringing about a student being a full time housekeeper.”
I don’t know, depending on the duties she was expected to perform, it’s possible that even a full time position would have afforded opportunity to study.
For what should be good English language election coverage tomorrow look to
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4726247,00.html
147. James Purnell photochopped himself into a picture. He also has a dirty house. And some guys whose names start with “B” or “McB” think he might be a g-a-y and aren’t afraid to say so, anonymously of course! (Hypocrites.)
Also his head is gigantic and be-sideburned.
Mandelson knows all these things AND MORE, I am sure. How can you doubt the wisdom and taste of the Prince of Darkness?
Evening All,
Not much to say about the poll except see my equivalent comment this morning.
@@@@@@@@
Haven’t read about the supposed plans from Brown but given there is a possibility that one of the first bits of legislation from a Conservative Government might be a Great Repeal Act (a bonfire of anal socialist legislation) then I suspect any manacles Brown tries to impose on a future Government might well get thrown on the bonfire.
@@@@@@@@
On more interesting stuff, Fraser Nelson has another piece analysing the BNP.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5367251/revisiting-the-bnp-conundrum.thtml
That in itself is neither here or there but within it Nelson refers to the ‘Eurobarometer’ which apparently provides a fairly credible high level assessment of UK opinion on the EU (I’d not come across it before - I’ve no idea of the methodology other than it used a sample of 1352 UK citizens).
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb71/eb71_uk_en_nat.pdf
Eurosceptics might find it interesting particularly as it suggests that even if there was a Withdrawal Referendum the pro-Europeans would have a lot of work on their hands.
To give some examples
What % in the UK trust the EU - 22%
What % in the UK trust the EC - 22%
What % in the UK trust the EP - 22%
Ironically, since Expensegate people seem to trust our own Parliament and Government even less. The UK Government was less trusted in Spring 2008 as well (10p Tax band abolition?)
What % in the UK trust the HMG - 21%
What % in the UK trust Parliament - 17%
But just as interesting is the question:
What % in the UK think the EU is a good thing - 28%
Of all the EU related questions the best EU performance was
Does the EU benefit the UK ? Which was agreed with by - 34%.
So there we have it by a majority of at least 2 to 1 - UK citizens currently see no value (at best) in the EU, don’t trust it, and don’t think it is a good thing.
Is it a case that the EU is a poor misunderstood maligned institution or is it the case ‘that if it walks like a (lame)duck and quacks like a (lame) duck it probably really is a (lame) duck?
163 - I am not saying that is impossible, lots of students do multiple jobs and student.
What I am saying is Scotland should be asked this line of questioning. She claimed to know a fair bit about his lady before she hired her and would guess she would have got to know her further while working for her. All smells very fishy to me.
a fair bit -> a bit
160. MD.
It’s your money…
Just remember, I am 2 for 7 on NFL this season, and IIRC 0 for 6 on Baseball.
Good luck!
169, we aren’t talking about silly ball sports though, plus I seem to remember you correctly forecast the 1-2 Brawn finish at Monza
Thanks, I’ll put it up now.
BBC firefighting.
165. diane
Purnell was clever enough to get off a sinking ship.
He was also not responsible for the long term economic planning for this country.
Purnell also seems to be a reasonably normal human being.
By the way does anyone else think that the poster Richie Rich could well be Sion Simon?
PB2 Singapore preview up: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/09/singapore-gp-preview.html
Just two tips from me (both lays at roughly evens), and a longer one courtesy of the esteemed Scott P.
157 Looking at that link alerted me to an earlier one with a link to this 20 second precis of Obama photographed with 130 separate dignitaries and having the same consistent, real looking smile on his face (not a GB grimace) - 130 people even at 20 seconds a photo is three quarters of an hour standing there looking pleased to meet them, and Obama keeps the same same smile……
http://vimeo.com/6747788
According to the BBC correspondent this story is all about “complex arguments about complex documents”, how f##kin patronising!
“Is it a case that the EU is a poor misunderstood maligned institution or is it the case ‘that if it walks like a (lame)duck and quacks like a (lame) duck it probably really is a (lame) duck?”
I’m no Europhile, but there is certainly strength to the argument that the EU is rarely, if ever, presented in a positive light in the UK. MPs of all stripes find it particularly useful to use it to shift blame on unpopular decisions.
Privatisation of the post office is a case in point. MPs will say “Ah, I’m afraid the EU require us to do this under the postal services deregulation directive”, without mentioning that the UK was the prime driver of this directive.
This is not to say I want a situation like you get in Spain, for example, where the EU ensures that everyone knows where the money for that wonderful new bridge has come from, but there could be a better balance which might, just might, have an effect on opinion.
Apologies as I’m sure this has already been posted, but it makes me smile how Ed Miliband transparently fails to rule out a bid for the leadership at some point.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/6234401/Lord-Mandelson-to-back-Ed-Miliband-as-future-Labour-leader.html
Germany
The betting line on Betfair’s “Party Vote Pecentage” is roughly:
CDU/CSU : 34.5%
SPD : 25.5%
FDP : 13.5%
Die Linke : 12%
Greens : 11.5%
That would give the CDU/CSU-FDP 48%, enough to form a ruling coalition.
176 - Yes but what would happen if ’simple’ people couldn’t work out these ‘complex’ documents?
176, reference to the Scotland story?
Not only patronising, it sounds utterly inaccurate.
Was a passport checked? One says yes, the other no. Was it photocopied? No.
Oooh, complex.
176 Cue the BBC’s HR compliance officer putting in for a raise. After all, it’s a highly complex job…..
Sssssssssssssshhhhhh, don’t let tim see this.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216333/Lembit-Opiks-Uncle-Oska-Nazi-collaborator.html
181 - In other words,
Nothing for you to worry your tiny little heads about, leave it to us to look at all that complex legal stuff,
says BBC man
173 There is a sort of synergy between the two names in their formation…
Ker-thunk !!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8276954.stm
Sound of Baroness Scotland’s career crashing !!
BBC 5 LIVE leading with story to be published in Guardian tomorow about interview with Darling who is very critical of the PMs leadership.
Developing.
Labour losing the will to live:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Alistair-Darling-Says-Labour-Has-Lost-The-Will-To-Live-And-All-Ministers-Are-Responsible/Article/200909415391809?f=rss
183 The continued existence of Germany is of course kept secret from Tim, given the number of people with ancestors who supported the Nazis. If he ever found out Germany was in the EU for example, he’d call for it’s immediate expulsion under pain of invasion.
187 - Already been 2nd item on BBC news at 10, was spun as Darling trying to put fire back in Labour Party supporters bellies. Cue bad gag about Prescott, belly, curry….
Ted : ” and Obama keeps the same same smile……”
Very impressive indeed. The man is a political athlete! What kind of training do one needs to achieve those smiling marathons?
I take it if Baroness Scotland is found guilty she will be expelled from the HoL?
Can we take it that the police will now get involved?
Breaking employment law, lying to immigration officials, national security issues.
188
Given Brown’s “we’ll half the deficit” announcement, we also see there the resurrection of “Labour cuts good, Tory cuts bad” theme.
187 yep, tats what I was on about up thread - Darling on manouveres.
Sky have it as their lead story - you don’t put ‘minister says Labour must want to win more’ as top story unless there is something else going on.
Darlinf is positioning himelf as the man who ‘wants it’ if there is a coup
187 Are there any Labour Ministers NOT on manouvers this weekend?
175
It’s seriously freaky.
194 and the interview names ‘the PM, the Chancellor’ - it is very third person. Darling does not identify himsef with the Cancellorship
WOrding very deliberate
Get your money on Darling I say.
153. Which I’m guessing makes any CDU fall in votes a bit less efficient overall for the CDU-FDP option. It may be marginal but the CDU are expected to win more overhang seats this time and if they drop one or two of these expected gains seats it could be very very tough.
159. Anything I’ve read and those people in Germany that I know and chat with suggests that theres no big dynamic here and no desire for radical change. In essence Merkel, in her typically understated way is looking for a coalition that, in terms of the relatively narrow straight road of German politics, has the potential to offer radical change.
Elements of the CDU’s Bavarian cousins in the CSU arent wholly enamoured by the Westerwelle and certainly theres a sense that the FDP may be a little demanding. I am guessing elements of the CDU may feel the same and would accept another grand coalition with a strengthened CDU and weakened SPD.
Add that up with the fact that really Merkel is the only option and one the people ar comfortable with, Im not sure if there is a strong desire to rock the boat.
The CDU-FDP option is the deserved favourite no doubt, Merkel & Westerwelle have made it clear thats where they want to go and any doubts within the CDU-CSU are muzzled in the midst of the campaign.
I appreciate that you have a different trading method than mine so we come at it from different angles and therefore go for different bets. My hope was that either a) I had a good straight bet and b) if it looked to be tighetning I got in early enough to take advantage of the trend and hedge.
I am intrigued by the poll that the BBC are reporting, that “nearly half think Gordo can win again”
In fact
A poll for the News of the World found more than half of those surveyed still thought Mr Brown could win the next election.
Some 11% said Labour has a good chance of winning with Brown and 48% said it has a slim chance, but 41% think it probably has no chance/definitely have no chance, the ICM Research on 1,003 adults found.
Or in plain English when asked what chance Labour had of winning, 89% said “slim and none”…
199 - BBC, poll, report, sorry scratch that mis-report…..par for the course. Shouldn’t Cameron be on 150% in the polls otherwise he can’t win, right?
199. Don’t worry I’m sure CCHQ keeps note of such things. SkyBBC.
Labour rebels are again smelling blood. Asked about suggestions that Brown might quit for “health reasons”, Charles Clarke, the former home secretary, said: “I think his own dignity ought to look to that kind of solution.”
The Labour-supporting Guardian joined in the Brown-baiting. Polly Toynbee, the newspaper’s star columnist, yesterday went so far as to pen a spoof resignation speech for the prime minister.
The latest opinion polls suggest that Labour is haemorrhaging support. A YouGov poll yesterday found that 54% of voters wanted Brown to quit as Labour leader. The Tories, on 39%, remain 13 points ahead of Labour on 26%, with the Liberal Democrats on 20%. A poll earlier in the week had shown that Labour was even losing support in its northern heartlands, with an 11.5% swing to the Tories since 2005.
With a Conservative landslide looking increasingly inevitable, Brown no longer appears entirely sure he will still be PM when the general election happens next year. “I’m pretty determined and resolute,” was about as far he would go when the New Statesman asked him about his survival odds.
Certainly, the bookmakers have little faith. William Hill is offering almost even money — 5-4 — for punters wanting to bet that Brown will be out before the election.
So, what scenarios might lead to the prime minister being ousted from office?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850930.ece
191 Unfortunately no-one gave Gordon the number or name to call to perfect the politicians smile, so we get this
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/04/21/article-1172398-0494362D000005DC-45_468×336.jpg
I wonder if the Labour PPCs will be queuing up for the normally obligatory photo with the PM for their election leaflet? I suppose they have to, but doubt it’ll be used…
Phil Woollas doing a donkey jacket wearing Arthur Scargill school of public relations on 5Live.
The Tories shouldnt be afraid to have some policy announcements at the conference and they shouldnt just focus on the economy but on other issues, law and order for a start.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Grayling said:
“The Home Office rushed through an investigation without listening to all the evidence, and the prime minister exonerated Lady Scotland before the housekeeper had even been questioned. This is increasingly looking like an attempted whitewash that has gone badly wrong.”
Them fighting words them are!
New variant on cash for honours:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850958.ece
The Last Baroness called Scotland
Fact that Baroness Scotland is still in her job is yet another proof that Labour has lost the will to lead, govern and/or win the next election.
Don’t need the testimony of housekeeper to realize that her denials are ludicrous.
Only thing more absurd is notion that she didn’t keep proper records (a lawyer?) or didn’t know the very law she pushed through the Lords.
Everyone jumped all over BS’s fellow barrister for her 2 flats fiasco. But at least SHE didn’t break the law, let alone her very own law.
No doubt some of the dimmer domes at No. 10 think that they will ginger up the immigrant/non-white vote for Labour at next general election. Which is a load of BS (and this time don’t mean “Baroness Scotland) my guess is that these folks want to see her out as much as any other Brit. Perhaps more, because in the bink of an eye she’s gone from role model to right embarrasment.
BTW, know that her surname is indeed Scotland. But what do Scots think about using their homeland in her title? Personally always thought it was a bit over the top. But then I’m a Teutono-Hibernian six times removed from the old sod.
206 It’s like the Reform Act on 1832 never happened……
As much as I am a critic of the way the Barclaygraph handled the expenses debacle this might have some legs (if and its a big if it is accurate):
The Liberal Democrats tutored their MPs in how to systematically exploit their taxpayer-funded expenses.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6235338/Lib-Dems-tutored-MPs-on-how-to-exploit-their-expenses.html
Will Mandy push Gordon off the cliff?
Peter Mandelson makes the startling confession in our magazine today that he would work for the Tories, if it were for the good of the country. With Mandy there is always a catch, however: he is “too tribal” to join a Conservative cabinet. Still, his old Corfu holiday companion George Osborne will be delighted to bury the hatchet and offer him a high-profile job. Loo attendant at No 11 is what I think he would have in mind.
The prince of darkness’s musing about the future shouldn’t be taken to mean that treachery is on his mind, yet. For he has temporarily put aside his pitchfork and become a sentimentalist. The young imp who backed Tony Blair as a winner against Gordon Brown might look askance at the older devil of 2009. Mandelson came to the PM’s rescue at the time of his disastrous reshuffle, ignoring evidence that getting Brown to fall on his sword would improve Labour’s fortunes.
Indeed some of Mandelson’s former cabinet colleagues charge him with putting his loyalty to the man who brought him back from Brussels exile ahead of his party. He believes the stigma of finishing off his old friend and enemy would be too great. Yet customs change. The DPP has clarified the law on assisted suicide, after all — those who help a friend to end their lives on compassionate grounds are no longer automatically held to blame. “It would be a mercy, Peter,” whisper those desperate to stave off electoral disaster, “no jury would convict you.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article6850912.ece
A Phil Woollas classic:
Nolan: ‘What do you say about a poll that asks who do you prefer as PM, 40 odd percent answer Cameron, 20 odd percent say Brown?’
Woollas: ‘They said that about Kinnock….’
Memo to Phil…Kinnock didnt win the GE.
209
Nick Clegg= Neil Kinnock
As an aside, my partner relayed that Nick Clegg made another “what the state pension”-esque balls up today in an interview with R1 Newsbeat,
“First up, what’s the National Minimum Wage? It’s five, it’s just about, er, …”
I can’t get the full interview up, anybody? Partner said he gaffed on something else.
172. Purnell was responsible for “workfare,” which I can’t imagine would appeal to what may be a more left-leaning Labour base. He also has expenses problems, which when combined with the fact that he was the man responsible for “workfare,” makes him a dream target. While Purnell was buying masses of food for himself with taxpayers’ money, he was forcing mums to work for pennies a day, etc…
Also, the big ol’ head. It’s huge!
205 - Yes, well Chris Grayling is an attack hound isn’t he.
213 - Actually appears to be from several days ago, partner must have been listening on iplayer.
209
I can’t see that doing much, to be honest. Had it come out last week, maybe.
“Memo to Phil…Kinnock didnt win the GE.”
That’s his point, isn’t it? He’s saying that people said they preferred Kinnock as PM (I have no idea if this is true), but he never won.
209, jsfl - didn’t all parties do this?
Kind of thing that made sense BEFORE the deluge. Like Al Capone would have been well-advised to have retained a top tax consultant.
177
“Spain, where the EU ensures that everyone knows where the money for that wonderful new bridge has come from”
Er David, in case you missed it that money doesn’t come from the EU. It comes from the taxpayers of the nation states and is then greatly reduced in value and purchasing power by being laundered through the EU with large sums being siphoned off for completely wasteful and often illegal purposes.
So if those Spanish (and British as there are a lot of them here as well) signs were honest they would say that the project was in part funded by taxpayers money after the EU had taken its cut to help prop up its undemocratic institutions and fund its own pet projects.
Found the Nick Clegg interview,
OK, a quick-fire round to finish. First up, what’s the National Minimum Wage?
It’s five, it’s just about, er, over five quid.
…..
How much is a litre of unleaded?
The last time I filled up, I paid a monumental amount to fill up my car. I paid close to £50, £60.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/hi/the_p_word/newsid_10000000/newsid_10001800/10001866.stm
So we will put you down for a don’t know on both of them then.
Is this what Wayne was hinting at?
The row over the so-called ‘Treasury mole’ flared again last night after one of Chancellor Alistair Darling’s staff resigned to take a job in the private office of Shadow Chancellor George Osborne.
Yesterday, the mandarin’s defection prompted a war of words between Labour and the Tories, amid suggestions that the official could have been linked to a series of damaging leaks about the Government’s economic plans.
The sense of intrigue surrounding the move then deepened after both sides refused to name the man.
Last night a senior Government insider told The Mail on Sunday that the mandarin worked in the department responsible for producing the tax and spending projections involved in the rows – and suggested that ‘the hunt for the mole is now over’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216377/Uproar-Westminster-Alistair-Darling-aide-quits-job-George-Osbornes-office.html
218. I read it it the other way around but you could be right and Ive taken it the wrong way round. Nice of him to use the Grandee as an example of failure.
219. I’ve no idea SSI. It does name certain Labour MPs but as to the Conservatives I haven’t seen anything. I know that they have opposed the Communications allowance I think since it’s inception and have promised to scrap it.
“Er David, in case you missed it that money doesn’t come from the EU. ”
That’s not really my point, and in fact doesn’t really detract from it at all.
Go negative on Tories:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6850969.ece
214. diane
Ed Miliband is a Pushkin Prince.
James Purnell isn’t.
I suspect Labour will want a fresh start after the election.
Good evening all, we’ve learnt a few things this week.
1.Tory Herd assessment of Lib Dems attack line is faulty.
2.Brown is likely to give it a go and do three debates plus the Darling/Cable men against a boy thing.
3.There seems to be some fight left on the left.
4.If the polls don’t move Brown will step down.
How contradictory any of the above are depends on the next 6 weeks.
226, suspect “Obamas pollster” has never heard of Crewe.
226. The pollster probably concluded that its the only thing Labour can do with any sort of conviction or competence……
226 - I love the fact that a strategy is going to be adopted that was a collosal failure in Crewe & Nantwich just because someone associated to Barack Obama says so. Labour really are floundering around aren’t they.
226 - In one focus group, voters had been asked to imagine the Conservatives as a “party”. Such a gathering, they said, would have a strict black tie dress code, be held in a manor house and “there would be butlers”.
Sounds like a Baroness Scotland kind of gig then, I mean she only has 3 homes and currently looking for new members of staff. Might be able to pick up some good references for suitable (and legal) candidates!
226, is that the same chap who was doing focus groups for Newsnight?
228 - Great minds!!!
“Such a gathering, they said, would have a strict black tie dress code, be held in a manor house and “there would be butlers”.”
Sounds eminently civilised to me.
Lets at least have some fun.
looks like Brown will go for three debates.
Plus the men against a boy Chancellor debate.
225
Yes it does. At 177 You are saying that the EU should promote itself more so by showing what it has done in supporting developments.
If it were being honest it would admit that it has done nothing at all and has actually hindered many developments by squandering the tax revenues it has claimed from the nation states and by making unrealistic demands on those states before they get a percentage of that money back. Those demands often work against the local interest and are designed to further EU objectives and priorities rather than those of the local communities and states.
234 It sounds like a new Hollywood blockbuster based on the great Tory purges of the 2010s
‘There will be Butlers’
234 Sounds like an evening at Sean Woodward’s.
235 Angry Badger, Discredited old goat who claims he invented electricity and ‘fun’ and Osborne. Easy win.
231. Oracle
Not to mention Shaun Woodward.
One of Labour’s problems is that they have very few people who seem ‘normal’. Plenty of nerds, weirdos, oafs and posh hypocrites though.
Poor old NPMP, a man with genuine abilities but never been given a chance.
“You are saying that the EU should promote itself more so by showing what it has done in supporting developments.”
No, I was saying that UK opinion on the EU may have been affected by the generally only negative coverage, and that an coverage like that in Spain may result in a different result. Whether the positive coverage is completely misleading or not doesn’t really affect that point. The fact I say that I don’t want the situation in Spain should indicate what I think of that sort of promotion.
240 and red-faced imperialist Tiger Hunter Quentin Davies
Let the games begin !
“Labour leadership ‘has lost will to live’, says Alistair Darling”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/labour-has-lost-will-darling
206 - What a surprise, more Labour sleaze.
Poor old Harpy’s convictions do not run that deep then
“Harman, the party’s deputy leader, has long campaigned for all-women shortlists for safe seats. There will be dismay among her supporters that in this case she did not demand it.”
Typical
221 Incredible how out of touch Clegg is in having no idea what the current price of petrol is - you’d think he’d know that simply by dint of driving past filling stations, even were he not having to pay for the stuff which I suspect is the case. It’s a wonder he didn’t proffer 30p per litre!
Tim
So how does Darling explain where £500 billion pounds went missing between budget 2008 and budget 2009?
I suppose he could always blame Brown.
244 ‘Man overboard!’
226. “The switch in Labour strategy comes as the BBC prepares to air a drama documentary based on Cameron’s Bullingdon experiences in the late 1980s.”
There’s a new ITV series all about nasty Toffs as well. There might be a load more of that over the next six months - evil Toffs in hospital drams, sitcoms etc.
Ah, Tim. So Brown’s finally clambering on to the debate boat at the last minute. Pure leadership material, that man…..
246. It probably is 30p for MP’s…
“The switch in Labour strategy comes as the BBC prepares to air a drama documentary based on Cameron’s Bullingdon experiences in the late 1980s”
I have it on good authority from Alastair Campbell that the BBC is nothing but a propaganda mouthpiece for the Tories, you know….
PfP
Didn’t Clegg also say that he now shopped at the ‘downmarket’ Sainsburys?
241. But David that’s pretty much stating the obvious isn’t it. That’s like saying if Gordon Brown had received positive coverage (which he did to start with) then things would be different but that doesn’t change the fact that most of the negative coverage he has received since has been justified.
Have you ever considered the possibility that the EU has received such negative coverage because to British standards it is justified?
235 tim, I’ve always thought that the Brown was a Mass debater.
248 - Doubtful this close to an election.
breaking news from Mail on sunday Scottie is reported as not seeing a passport
Oh dear
Brown is toast if he does a debate. Cameron merely needs to show some contrition over expenses (which will be popular anyway) and Brown will hang himself in insisting it was all ‘those other MPs, not me, there is no question over my probity’
Cameron can follow with ‘how do you justify claiming for a property when you had another two grace and favour properties provided?’
Brown’s only response ‘It was in the roolz, it was within the roolz’
Game Over.
Brown cannot admit he did wrong, it will destroy him in a debate
244.
“The new legislation is expected to set targets for a year-by-year reduction in the deficit. Ministers will argue that it goes further than Tory plans announced last year for an Office of Budget Responsibility, because Labour’s scheme will make it a legal obligation to act responsibly.”
So, Osborne was right (again), but the Labour version will be better cos they will “abdicate responsibility from elected representatives to the courts”…
And these f*ckwits are trying to get re-elected. Incredible.
253 Is that really what he said? - Phew!
“But David that’s pretty much stating the obvious isn’t it.”
I’m not saying it’s ground-breaking insight, but thought that, given the Eurobarometer poll was mentioned, was worth giving in terms of context.
“Have you ever considered the possibility that the EU has received such negative coverage because to British standards it is justified?”
I find that few things in life are completely negative. The example I give, of the postal services directive, is one where the UK government is responsible and yet the EU gets the blame. It’s handy for governments to have a bogeyman they could use.
I stated that I’m not a Europhile. Yet I’ve been jumped on for mentioning the merest possibility that the EU isn’t entirely a negative institution.
258 and if there is a global downturn again how ar ethe government to respond of they want to play the Keynes approach?
Labour appear to be attmepting to legally bind future governments into being unable to rpovide a fiscal stimulus.
LMAO
f*cking idiots
You really do have to wonder what Cameron has been doing these past few weeks…I do recall him embarking on a series of “Cameron Directs” and of course he visited Bedford recently. But is this the best use of his time so close to an election?
On reflection, perhaps he’s been learning his conference speech off by heart - now that really did move mountains for him two years ago. Certainly the most impressive tour de force I’ve witnessed over the past 20 years.
Please lets not have another Tory panic.
If you want to be a Government lets respect the office and not milk it for a 100k like Hague did.
Have some respect.
262 - Cameron is hoping for a default election.
There’s a few signs this week that he may not get one.
259. PfP
He used to shop at Ocado but is now ‘feeling the financial pain’.
“he also recently ditched his Liberal Democrat car and replaced it with an electric moped, happy in the knowledge that he is saving a fortune on fuel.”
So I don’t know which car he’s been filling up recently
The strange thing though is that Clegg’s financial comments are probably not that out of tune with the voters of Sheffield Hallam.
262 Probably keeping his head down, watching the LD’s go off the rails during conference week and waiting for the fun to start in Brighton this weekend. There’s not much point doing anything, whilst the other 2 conferences are in full swing and grabbing all the media attention.
Just back from a pleasant week in Germany, a few thoughts on their election to start with:
It’s all traffic lights and colour schemes. In fact there are full page articles in the papers about which party coalitions are possible. It’s a much more mature debate than we have here, which never gets much further than ‘hung parliament: good or bad idea?’
CDU/CSU: Angela Merkel is respected, even by her opponents, and is a safe bet to remain Kanzellorin.
SPD: Steinmeier is a bit of an Alastair Darling figure, doing a dignified job in tough circumstances, and if you look at the leadership ratings over time, although he’s still behind he’s made up huge ground on Angela Merkel, and the election has come too soon for him. A small minority of previous SPD leaners are turned off by him.
FDP: Strongly suspected to go into coalition with CDU/CSU, and their leader has been making all the right noises.
Die Grune: I think they may outperform their polling - well organised, visible campaigning, the PR system works well for them and they are picking up the none of the above vote.
Die Linke - no insight.
The status quo camp will vote for Merkel in enough volume to return her to power; although I see the Greens as potentially wielding more influence, it’s still likely to come down to whether the FDP get enough to enter into coalition - most people I spoke to suspected the minor coalition party made little difference as Merkel was an effective leader. I’d say 60% or so that it’s CDU/CSU/FDP with 40% the current rainbow coalition remaining.
260. You haven’t been jumped on by any means and it was you who started using the concept of it being ‘totally negative’.
As it goes two out of the three established political parties in this country vociferously support it (although provide scant justification for doing so) as does the state funded TV station. Most of the other TV Stations rarely mention it and it is only the Newspapers and Blogosphere where you can find serious Euroscepticism. So how that equates to totally negative coverage I really don’t know.
I described it as a lame duck. Is a lame duck totally negative? I don’t think so.
However, such a description suggests it is of little use or benefit and that is how I view the EU. IMO it is an institution whose benefits are swamped by its disadvantages and promotes a false image of itself (particularly the illusion that it is somehow democratic). Does it do some good. I suppose so but I don’t really care because to me the whole concept is superfluous to our needs and the disadvantages it creates suggest we would be better off without it.
262 PfP - It’s not close to an election. Over six months.
Cameron is a master of timing - trust him!
“There’s not much point doing anything, whilst the other 2 conferences are in full swing”
Plus of course the convention not to overshadow the other party conferences. Admittedly not something Labour keep to, but still…..
267 - Views on a wildcard CDU/CSU/FDP/Green coalition?
269. Over six months ago was pre-”Expenses Scandal”. It will go by very quickly (or maybe I’m getting old
)
@264: There’s no such thing as a “default” election; every one is hard fought.
When one side is roundly despised, and even its own voters appear to come out only under duress, it is very rare for the other side to do any less worrying, and any less hard work.
1997 taught everyone that lesson, I thought.
Don’t know if someone posted:
“Lord Mandelson: I would work for Tories
Gordon Brown came under further pressure last night when Lord Mandelson suggested that he is ready to accept a job under a future Conservative government”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6235812/Lord-Mandelson-I-would-work-for-Tories.html
Labour have announced their conference slogan
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:21cfe636-a2a6-4cb8-9a87-57ee8956ec0a
“Labour - Securing Britain’s Economic Recovery”
…will be much harder than screwing it up; good job the Tories will be doing it.
“As it goes two out of the three established political parties in this country vociferously support it”
But at least one is happy to present it as a whipping boy for unpopular policies.
“as does the state funded TV station. Most of the other TV Stations rarely mention it and it is only the Newspapers and Blogosphere where you can find serious Euroscepticism. So how that equates to totally negative coverage I really don’t know.”
If you are saying that you’ve either got no coverage or serious Euroscpeticism, then the coverage is negative!
Frankly, I don’t know what more I can say other than to repeat my original post that “This is not to say I want a situation like you get in Spain”. I repeat this given I supposedly said “the EU should promote itself more so by showing what it has done in supporting developments. “
And what exactly happens if the government misses all these targets? Does someone get prosecuted? Do the courts appoint administrators?
It’s the same with all these ‘legally binding’ targets. They’re all nothing more than aspirations with bells on.
What it’s really about is trying to trap the Tories into saying that they’ll repeal the Act (which they will) and so paint them as ‘irresponsible’.
It could on the other hand be argued that having a target of a budget deficit of near £100bn in 5 years’ time is itself irresponsible and that the reductions need to come a good deal faster than that.
269 Richard - I call 6/7 months close but we won’t argue over semantics.
The absolutely key thing for the Tories right now imo is to maintain momentum. Were they to slip further below the 40% level, all sorts of doubt would start to creep into the national psyche and who knows where that may lead.
260
Of course one could easily argue that if the EU were not there then the givernment would never have been able to force through the changes to the postal service that it desired. In that way the EU served as a useful tool for them to achieve something against the public will and largely without the public being aware it was happening.
And of course you ignore the fact that it was not the UK alone that was responsible for the directive (and has had little to do with the subsequent 2 further revisions to the directive) and that whoever originated the idea it was one which was enacted by the EU as it was in line with their overall single market policy.
Whichever way you spin it, were it not for the EU it is extremely unlikely that any democratically acocuntable government would have been able to make such a complete mess of the postal service as we now have.
Baroness Scotland:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216404/I-didnt-Baroness-Scotland-passport-says-housekeeper-sensational-new-allegations.html
277 5,000 pound fine, probably.
“Of course one could easily argue that if the EU were not there then the givernment would never have been able to force through the changes to the postal service that it desired. In that way the EU served as a useful tool for them to achieve something against the public will and largely without the public being aware it was happening.”
Exactly.
“whoever originated the idea it was one which was enacted by the EU as it was in line with their overall single market policy”
Which is also something supported and developed by successive UK governments. And I’ve never said it wasn’t in line with overall EU policy, merely that, as you say, UK government has used the EU to push through an unpopular policy that it wants but wants to be able to avoid the negative fall out from.
“were it not for the EU it is extremely unlikely that any democratically acocuntable government would have been able to make such a complete mess of the postal service as we now have.”
I sincerely doubt that. I’m not aware, for example, that other EU countries are in similar messes. There are lots of ways that the PO could have been screwed, with or without the EU.
264 - tim you really do talk tripe.
Interesting Tim/The bunkers new line is default election. Which I suppose is meant to “flush out” policies. The thing is Cameron wants to air his policies like the one Labour just tried to imitate (obviously with corrupt jobs for the boys labour spin on it) so I think Tim should go right ahead with this line.
Also if Labour go with the toff line again. The nice easy retort is that Labour are busy fighting some bizarre class war whilst the Tories are preparing to actually do the right thing for the country. Also with the BBC doing Labour’s bidding on this is just yet another reason to take a machete to the corporation. Also Labour going smear crazy means the Tories can associate Labour with the Lib Dems after all their strategy is the same, in other words vote yellow get Brown resonates again as they appear to be in cahoots.
277. “It could on the other hand be argued that having a target of a budget deficit of near £100bn in 5 years’ time is itself irresponsible and that the reductions need to come a good deal faster than that.”
A few years ago such a deficit would have seemed inconceivably gloomy and besides no government could be so incompetent to allow it to develop. Now such a target is an aspiration of the Labour government.
Labour really are worse than the nightmare scenario of a few years ago. Five more years of this? My answer is unpostable.
284. I assumed the new official Labour “Tory Toffs” line was as a direct result of tim’s highly successful pilot here. Surely he was reporting the results back with his usual level or veracity and accuracy, leading to the obvious conclusion it’s a winner !! Maybe he gets a bonus?
282
In which case if you agree with what I wrote, how can you then claim that the EU is any sort of force for good in this?
Whether by their own design or by serving as a useful tool (actually in both ways) they have enacted a directive which has resulted in a complete shambles in the UK postal service.
I don’t see the upside to this. And since you used this as an example where the EU suffers unwarranted negative publicity I fail to see how you can continue to support that position.
Nick Clegg= Neil Kinnock
by Maggie Thatcher Fan September 26th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
I take it that is the Martin Day memorial post for this Sunday.
166: The Eurobarometer has been around since 1973! - it’s a regular poll by (I think) the European Commission. IIRC it always shows Britain as one of the most negative, always with the intiguing detail that you spotted that people think our own institutions are worse than the European ones. See http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/index_en.htm if anyone wants to delve and study trends.
183: Well, I don’t like the Baltic States parties who honour people who fought with the Nazis (yes, I know the excuses, but although they sort of explain the vile behaviour they don’t warrant celebrating it), but even I wouldn’t hold Lembit’s great-uncle against him. What is he supposed to do about it?
284 - Why should Labour go with the toff line?
Let the Lib Dems do that.
Labour should go with the Osborne and Cameron will trigger a double dip recession.
290 - Your third sentence all the words from and including with were superfluous.
290. That’s like saying the Tories will f*ck up just like we did.
“In which case if you agree with what I wrote, how can you then claim that the EU is any sort of force for good in this?”
Um, I’ve not claimed it’s a force for good with respect to the Post Office. I’ve not claimed it’s a negative either. I just used that particular example for one to illustrate how governments use it as a whipping boy.
That’s the second time you’ve misrepresented what I’ve said. First with respect to Spain, where I specifically said I didn’t want that type of propaganda, and now here.
As an aside, before I go to bed.
Is there anyone who thinks that 66/1 on Alistair Darling as next Labour leader was a bad bet?
see 226. The pollster for Gordo’s new BFF says so…
290 Are Labour really trying to run the “everything was fine when we left it” line? “The Tories broke the economy. They wasted the golden inheritance.”
Fnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
Picking a new leader who is going to lose their seat is a bad idea.
294 If Gordon has to go, he will drag Darling down with him. Bank on it…
290 because Obama’s pollster told them to.
“Labour should go with the Osborne and Cameron will trigger a double dip recession.”
The problem is it has completely failed to resonate and the trust in Labour’s economic competence is non existent. So if Labour go on the economy the Tories just point out the enourmous deficit that Labour’s policies have caused. Which also rather neatly makes Gordon’s claims of reducing it just look silly.
Incidentally, those LibDem tricks in the use of the allwoance are new to me - the idea of taking a paid non-partisan ad in your own partisan newsletter seems to me very dodgy (and I say that without knowing if anyone else has done it). Has anyone seen such a thing in their local newsletters?
I remember years ago the LibDems using a variant of this against me in the 1995 Euros. I was the 3rd-placed candidate in the East Sussex & South Kent election (then FPTP), and they wanted to persuade voters (quite correctly in this case) that it was a two-horse race. However, they knew that if they simply claimed it people would say yeah, yeah, it’s just a LibDem barchart. So they took out a newspaper advert with a ppurportedly neutral article by an ‘observer’ saying that only the LDs could beat th eTories, and then they put a recruitment ad inside their own advert, prominently labelled ADVERTISEMENT - thereby implying that the rest wasn’t an advert. The local papers didn’t bother to query it.
293
I have not misrepresented what you said. You have come along claiming that the negative image of the EU is somehow unjustified.
You have used the example of the Post Office Directive as a misleading way of illustrating this and have raised the example of Spain as somewhere where the EU seeks to promote itself.
Whatever proviso you might put on that you clearly did it for a purpose. It is disingenuous of you to suggest otherwise when you are challenged over it.
If you did not intend some implication to be derived from these examples then why did you raise them? Or did you simply think no one would challenge you?
299. They are already running it. Peter Hain on the news earlier today said if they had followed Tory plans, half a million more unemployed, blah, blah, blah… When the interviewer asked for evidence, Hain replied “It’s common sense”.
Ok, I’m convinced. Vote Labour !!
300 Priceless. A member of the Labour Party griping about the shifty political antics of another organisation.
Yes an amazing poll. Are we really saying that people are influenced by the last person to speak to them?
Oh - its fair enough to say that the conferences give each party a boost. But one assumes they have a decent stage managed conference.
By any objective analysis the LibDems had a terrible conference with their ace player, the sage Cable, being uttely exposed as an idiot and annoying half the party.
But still a boost.
A general election do not forget gives all parties an equal boost - so the last person who spoke to the votes does not really apply
290 - So tim, what should we do with the AG is she has found to be lying?
What sort of investigation would not even ask to talk to the housekeeper? one that wasn’t interested in truth maybe? how neu Liebour
What do you think about Labour trying to put back a milittary offensive so if things go bad Gordo the clown is out of the way ?
What do you make of Mandelscum being willing to work for the next govermnment (which as we all know will not be Labour)?
302. A line which Darling has apparently told them to stop using.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5310161/another-darling-vs-brown-battle.thtml
Go on Labour, run the election campaign on your economic record, I love a good joke.
297/8. OK you think its a bad bet at evens.
At 66/1 I think its a very good bet.
Now of course if all the herd were betting men/women they could show confidence in their predictions, mortgage their houses and back a Cameron PMship at a fifty percent return.
But of course they don’t.
Is Cameron 130 times more likely to be PM next May than Darling.
No, the true odds are perhaps what? 20/30 times.
“You have come along claiming that the negative image of the EU is somehow unjustified.”
I stated that the negative view will be affected by how the EU is generally treated here.
“You have used the example of the Post Office Directive as a misleading way of illustrating this”
You agreed with exactly what I said in my first post.So how was I misleading?
“and have raised the example of Spain as somewhere where the EU seeks to promote itself.”
Yes, and said I didn’t want to see that here.
305 -Incomprehensible I’m afraid.
307 its an excellent bet as he is clearly on manouveres. If Labour grow a spine its a cracking bet.
Labour however are clearly not going on the double dip line - they are proposing a law which will make future finanical stimulus illegal - they are legislating us into a future depression accoridng to their own interpretation of ‘Recession = waste money like idiots’ philosophy
PS
it seems Gen Makay is saying he was asked to delay an attack so it did not embarrass Brown on a visit.
Gawd help us and spare us !
The NHS ‘cuts’ are pencilled into the current labour spending plans. It follows years of over inflation increases, so the switch will be doubly harsh. Under Labours plans departments face 9.3% cuts in their budgets. The NHS is facing real difficulties - as are all depts - and we must accept it as the result of the massive debt brown has built up.
Darling’s “lost the will to live” blast is not a pop at Brown, his “friends” say. Right. Gordon will see it that way, I’m sure.
Gordon will just NOT accept Darling as his successor. If he does go, it is going to be on some agreed basis of “ill-health”. In practice, he will have a hand in the passing of the baton, if only by a veto.
309 I thought you were going to bed? Best be quick before all the air leaks out of ‘Mrs Tim’.
314 Tim’s never short of hot air to top her up…
Who would trust a Labour government not to change an inconvenient act of parliament once elected on the grounds that it needs modernising, clarifying, and improving out of all recognition.
You will remember in 2005 the current PM saying, “”The manifesto is what we put to the public. We’ve got to honour that manifesto. That is an issue of trust with me and the electorate.”
That manifesto had this section which was untrue when it was published as taxation is already an EU competence in regard VAT, but is just a joke now:
The EU now has 25 members and will continue to expand. The new Constitutional Treaty ensures the new Europe can work effectively, and that Britain keeps control of key national interests like foreign policy,taxation,social security and defence.
The Treaty sets out what the before drawing up a comprehensive statement spelling out the rights and responsibilities of British travellers abroad. This will include the help that people can expect from their government in times of need.
The Treaty sets out what the EU can do and what it cannot . It strengthens the voice of national parliaments and governments in EU affairs. I t is a good treaty for Britain and for the new Europe.
We will put it to the British people in a referendum and campaign whole-heartedly for a ‘Yes ’vote to keep Britain a leading nation in Europe.
German General Election 2009
Thanks to all those with insights and field reports (any sweet or sauerkrauts out there who can add a native perpective?)
Personally think that Yokel is on to something. Why should CPD (let alone CSU) want to give FDP a leg up by letting them into the government? Unless of course their needed to make the magic number, which appears very unlikely provided the SPD is willing to play ball.
Must say I love NPMP’s reference to “shy commie vote” - workers of the world unite, you have nothing to loose but your chagrin!
“John Rentoul: The real story is Ireland, not Brighton
This Friday’s vote on the Lisbon Treaty is important enough to prick the party conference bubble”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-the-real-story-is-ireland-not-brighton-1793823.html
“Miliband challenges Prime Minister to look to the future
On the eve of Labour’s conference, Brown hit by new blow as Nye plans her departure”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/miliband-challenges-prime-minister-to-look-to-the-future-1793972.html
From the link:
“And on the eve of a critical conference in Brighton for the PM, it emerged that Sue Nye, the closest member of his inner circle beyond his wife, Sarah, is planning an exit from Downing Street amid claims that she is unhappy about the increasing influence of a younger member of the No 10 war room.
Ms Nye, who has been at Mr Brown’s side for more than a decade, is being lined up for a peerage and is in need of “some distance” and a “change of scenery” from the tension of Downing Street. Insiders said Ms Nye, the PM’s gatekeeper and head of government relations, was “really fed up” at the promotion of 28-year-old Kirsty McNeill from speechwriter to head of external affairs.”
312 - I had dinner tonight with, amongst others a couple of Conservative party supporters who, unprompted, told me they trust Darling more than anyone else on the national scene.
Neither will ever vote Labour but they have a sizeable business loan with RBS, thought they were going under last Autumn and didn’t.
OK I thought, a passing thanks.
Surprisingly their opinion of him has gone up since last Autumn.
Anyway, sitting on a 66/1 bet has a small downside.
“David Miliband: Back on song and… yes, he has no bananas
At last year’s conference he blotted his reputation with plot rumours and unfortunate fruit. This year the Foreign Secretary is backing Gordon – for now. John Rentoul speaks to David Miliband”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/david-miliband-back-on-song-and-yes-he-has-no-bananas-1793845.html
“Compass think-tank warns that a Cameron victory could mean political oblivion for Labour”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/27/compass-labour-conservatives-election-cameron
Sunday Times:
For Brown the choice is to go down as the most unsuccessful Labour prime minister in history or as the man who steadied the ship of state in a crisis and moved on for the good of his party and country.
Intriguingly, Brown in an interview in the New Statesman doesn’t explicitly rule out quitting No 10 before polling day. When pressed he replies: “That is not the issue at the moment.”
What an odd reply!
3§3/4 - I’ve been instructed to stay up until the meringue for the pavlova is finished (party tomorrow)
so you can enjoy my company for longer.
“Gordon Brown has to break out of the spiral of decay”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/27/andrew-rawnsley-gordon-brown
323 - Unless the agreement always was that if Labours poll ratings didn’t move after the conferences then Brown would go.
So Brown - the man who ruined the economy - is going to make a law which sets down economic targets that governments that follow his will have to comply with?
Is it me, or is that monstrous on absolutely every level? Surely any incoming government could just repeal the law and follow their own policies?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6235277/Gordon-Browns-plan-to-win-back-the-middle-classes.html
I have published the Bracknell short list of 7. Iain Dale is in the running:
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2009/09/26/the-bracknell-conservative-shortlist
The act which Baroness Scotland helped draft and then pilot through parliament required photocopies so there was proof the right documents had been inspected. Without those photocopies - so the government said as the bill passed - would be the indicator of appropriate checks having been made.
So on that point alone Scotland is well in the wrong.
To then say she has seen the documents when the victim says she did not should mean that Scotland is presumed guilty?
And that seems more reasonable in light of the Telegraph report tonight:
Last night it was reported that UK Border Agency officials found a Tongan passport belonging to Mrs Tapui-Zivancevic when they raided her flat last week, but that a visa it contained, apparently entitling her to work in the UK, had been forged but which was out of date when Baroness Scotland had taken her on……….
Mrs Tapui-Zivancevic also disclosed that she was sacked by a terse text message once the scandal of her immigration status was exposed, following a series of phone calls from her aides, belatedly trying to determine exactly what documents the housekeeper had produced at the job interview.
320 Good job that the government followed the Conservative suggestion to recapitalise the banks. RBS going under would have been it for the Western ecnomomy.
307 tim
What makes your assessment of the odds “true”? I have similar suspicions about the use of the term “value bet”. Generally the use of these terms indicates an intuitive, unscientific and personal judgement. The claims are at their most disingenuous when they follow a long calculation of probabilities from bookmakers’ odds.
Justify yourself sir!
330 and we all need a good ecnomomy, whatever that is
“Vadera seeks a G20 role for Brown after No 10 exit
(…)One source said: “The story behind Vadera’s move is much more to do with preparing the ground for Gordon Brown who has his eyes on a potential role within the G20. He sees the G20, and his stewardship and his handling of the banking crisis, as part of his lasting legacy and he’s really keen to continue in such a high-level, high-profile international role”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/vadera-seeks-a-g20-role-for-brown-after-no-10-exit-1793732.html
Me Millibland faces both ways in the same paper which also reports:
David Miliband thrusts himself back into the debate over Labour’s future today as he puts forward “my pitch” and issues a coded message to the 58-year-old Prime Minister: ” ‘Future’ is the most important word in politics.”
The Foreign Secretary, who remains one of the most likely people to lead Labour after the election, challenges Gordon Brown to use his last conference before the election to show the “vision” necessary to avert catastrophic defeat.
Whilst we are on the subject of toffs and Bullingdon Club togs, would it not be appropriate for the next Parliament to renew its trust with the people by reviving the morning coat?
A better option may even be reintroducing the frock coat, with facings coloured to indicate party allegiance: blue for the Tories, Red for Labour etc.
Colour indication would certainly if the number of government MPs were to require the overflow to occupy the opposition benches.
Nick Palmer in a frock. What more could we want?
And Mandelson might defect to a job with the Tories - that tells you as much as you need to know about morale in the Labour party.
….. (would he) fulfil a public role under a future government led by David Cameron, he said: “If I was asked to do something for my country using that asset base, of course, I would consider it.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6235812/Lord-Mandelson-I-would-work-for-Tories.html
334 - “The Foreign Secretary, who remains one of the most likely people to lead Labour after the election,”
How? and Why?
335 Correction
would certainly = would certainly be helpful
335 Nick is highly unlikely to be in the next parliament though/…..
336 pressed on the issue Lord Mandelson hissed ‘what do you think I have been doing sssssssince I came back into politicsssssss in the UK?’
326 It certainly suggests there is some conditionality attached to his staying. We now know that he’s “very fit” and “runs a lot” so clearly there are no health issues involved. That leaves either another job or getting the bullet.
For him to say “That is not the issue at the moment” suggests to me there is at least a 70% probability that he’s set to go prior to the GE and sooner rather than later. After all, if he was going next year, what’s the need to say such a thing now. Perhaps Toynbee was right a couple of days ago and he’s set to say goodbye at Labour’s conference in the next few days. Somehow, though I just can’t believe it.
331 - Of course we’re talking about an individual assessment of probablity.
I’d say the odds of Darling being next PM are (pre election) are about 10/1, so 66/1 is a good bet.
I’d ay the odds of William Hague being next Tory leader are 12-16/1 yet he’s 7/2 -bad bet.
“true odds” I guess change every day in politics, but I’m happily sitting on my portfolio of bets which, unless Gordon stays on and the Tories win 360+ seats pays for a years holidays.
If the latter happens ,I’ll benefit as a very rich man through the Tories tax changes anyway.
333. It’s eerily reminiscent of the way education authorities used to promote incompetent teachers into admin roles to get them out of the classroom.
Travellers from England have to show their passports to Scotland while Scotland doesn’t bother to see the passport in England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6228232/Domestic-passengers-flying-to-Scotland-may-now-have-to-show-their-passports.html
342 which ones will benefit you tim?
I’ll benefit as a very rich man through the Tories tax changes anyway.
by tim September 27th, 2009 at 12:49 am
Why are you intending to die and exploit the IHT thingy you keep chuntering about. Beating Cameron and Osborne to it, eh?
335 And swords, bring back the swords.
345 - As far as I can tell at the moment I’ll not lose at all when Dave “shares the pain”.will benefit from the Tories marriage subsidy and should I fall under a bus tomorrow pass on an extra few hundred grand to my undeserving children.
Personally I’d rather it went into cancer treatment and the BBC.
344. Yes, it does rather neutralise the tedious anti-nationalist jibe “do you want to have to show your passport to get into Scotland?” if under the Labour police state that’s happening anyway!
344 Watch visitor numbers to Scotland fall off a cliff, if they keep playing silly buggers like that.
342 Has Darling yet to face Labour’s Star Chamber for repeated property flipping or has he already been officially cleared of not having done anything wrong?
Has anyone yet calculated to what extent this is likely to damage his prospects of being re-elected at the next GE?
Newspapers:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-Sunday-September-27-2009/Media-Gallery/200909415391808?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15391808_The_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages%2C_Sunday%2C_September_27%2C_2009
348 ‘Personally I’d rather it went into cancer treatment and the BBC.’
But there’s nothing to stop that happening. You can voluntarily hand the whole lot over to the State should you wish.
348 marriage tax changes - not a huge benefit really, but yes thats true.
You won;t personaly benefit if the IHT changes come in, but to be fair you could already pass on to your children wothout tax at very little cost if you tax planned effectively.
Of course, if you would rather your money went to the NHS and the BBC then bequeath it to them in some fashion. Simples.
354 you won’t suffer a pay cut like Cameron and Osborne then when they share the pain?
344 Answers to the ‘Daily Mail’ article give a definite answer,sorry to be blunt,but a reasonable answer to a reasaonable question is there in the ‘commnets’ of Daily Mail respondents.
(I thumb through it daily,to be even-handed)
On topic.
What worries me about the two most recent polls is that the Lib Dem ‘resurgence’ has principally been at the expense of the Tories. Labour has remained unchanged in both polls.
The conventional wisdom is that the Lib Dems will lose seats to the Tories in LD/Tory marginals at the GE, but gain from Labour in the Lab/LD marginals. It follows that a strategy of attacking the Tories increases the likelihood of disaffected Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. This seemed to be Clegg’s game plan in last week’s conference.
Yet what has happened, if the polls are to be believed, is that Tory voters are switching to Lib Dems. This may help Clegg hold some of his Tory/LD marginals but will not assist him make gains from Labour.
Now everyone will say the 3-4% lift is only a temporary reaction to the increased exposure given to the Lib Dems in media coverage of their conference. This may be true but is not relevant to my argument.
The key point is that if or when the Lib Dems gain from media exposure - a likely consequence of a GE campaign - it will not be from Labour. This raises questions about whether Labour is the true target of the Lib Dem’s current campaign. If we accept the target is right, then questions must be asked about the campaign’s effect.
I guess we need the marginals poll to really understand what is going on.
350 I’m not sure - it might convince some that they’ve “gone abroad” but are still able to use English money at English prices. I mean, just how wonderful does that sound?
353 - The State?
Perhaps I’d like it to go to BUPA cancer treatment centres to supply irrelevant flower vases.
What a statist argument Ed.
348. It’s not hard. Write a Will and leave it to cancer charities then - they are exempt from IHT as well… that way your undeserving children don’t get the money!!
357 and in return get the new Scottish five pound note in change which features Alex Salmond pulling a moonie and on the reverse Nicola Sturgeon hiding the Mercian Anglo-Saxon gold under the throne at Scone Palace.
355 - Never trust a man who doesn’t know how many houses he owns offering a small pay gesture.
358 ‘The State?’
Yes, I do believe the NHS and BBC are state organisations.
I’m sure your children (imaginary or real) will be equally happy it you choose to leave it all to BUPA instead.
361 I trust him as much as I trust a Cheshire farmer on t’internet with an uncanny knack and knowledge of the internal rumblings of the Labour party beyond the usual ken of such a creature. maybe even more so
359 - Do cancer charities carry out treatment?
Its not California you know.
Although I am prepared to make out a will and leave it to the BBC as long as I could have a weeks product placement between Any Questions and Any Answers.
342 tim
Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see you become rich as a consequence of a Tory victory. Why you may even be able to buy Somerset and exercise droit de seigneur.
I can’t see value in Brown quitting though, but then I have never been good at numbers.
362 - BUPA is passe.
Unless you believe satellite TV and Lattes aid recovery.
Labour Leadership “has lost the will to live” says Darling.
The Chancellor has clearly learned that he’s unsackable. After Brown’s recent attempts to move him from The Treasury, how delicious must be his revenge against the PM. He must look forward to every day with renewed pleasure.
Evenin’ all.
331 Seth
This is my technical definition of a ‘value bet’ - It’s any out of line bookie bet which results in an overbook of less than 100%. It’s all maths, not judgement. You could either make a small guaranteed return by betting on all outcomes (arbitridge betting), or just take the out of line bet on its own, without backing the other possibilities. Assuming the market reflects the true implied probability of a given outcome (eg, 3/1 will happen 1 out of every 4 times), then by backing enough value bets, you’ll end up winning back more than you have paid out in stakes, giving you value.
365 - No matter how much money I had I wouldn’t choose to buy Somerset, it’s infested by Rees Moggs.
I’d save up for Lancashire or Suffolk
366 My local flagship NHS hospital seems to think so.
367 PfP
Perhaps he is challenging Brown to dismiss him. A Martyr makes a better candidate.
369 More ‘toffs’ in both of those counties than Somerset.
What sort of parent would rather leave money to the ‘state’ than their own children?
369 Suffolk is part of the soon to be restored Kingdom of East Anglia, it is not for sale to outsider folks.
Lancashire you can have free with those moon acres they sell on the internet.
I can’t help but think this Fiscal Responsibility Act Labour are proposing is going to backfire on them. A decent interviewer could have hours of fun with this one.
377 Mr Brown, you make great play of saving the economy. Under your new law, fiscal stimulus would be illegal. And yet you tell us that to not provide one would be irresponsible.
How do you square this? Are you saying boom and bust have been ended? Why should we believe you any more this time than last time?
If the law can be amended, then what is the point in it?
366 Tim - you mean after all the billions that have been thrown at the NHS, patients still don’t have Sky in their rooms or Starbucks doing the rounds?
364. Depends what you mean by treatment of course. Macmillan nurses are usually superb and often are left bequests in wills (and iht exempt).
375 - It would be a wise move for Margaet Thatcher
368 Arbitrage Spanked
A reasonable but strict definition: more honoured in the breach than the observance by most gamblers.
Maybe but you know well that wasn’t the point I was making!
Oh ffs.
“Tim” doesnt have kids.
He doesn’t have money.
“Tim” doesn’t exist, ffs! Can’t all you idiots get that into your heads? You all get wound up by a Labourite who doesnt exist!
Come on, chaps and comrades, get a f*cking grip.
My name is Ezio, and I’m really great!!!
Possibly so Ezio - but it’s not about whether Tim exists or not. It’s about accepting or challenging the points that he/they make surely.
Did we miss this poll?
Poll reveals Gordon Brown is worse than Kinnock as Labour MP says ‘PM must resign for sake of Party’
(…)The poll puts the Conservatives a massive 15 points ahead of Labour, enough to put Mr Cameron into No10 with a big Commons majority.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216415/MoS-poll-reveals-Gordon-Brown-worse-Neil-Kinnock.html
384 Ezio
It was reliably reported a few nights ago that you were eaten by a Lion.
Can you be the reliable evidence for reincarnation that we have all been looking for?
386 Well spotted me
C 40 L 25 LD 22
385 - I don’t think it is anymore, tbh. So many of the tories on here start spewing with rage everytime ‘Tim’ decides to grace us with ‘his’ presence.
‘He’ is a boring character. Let’s just leave ‘him’ alone to be all boring
Thank f*ck Ezio isn’t a Tory or a Labourite!
387 - Seth, you’d be foolish to think that there is a lion anywhere on earth that would be dumb enough to tangle with Ezio.
A shark was stupid enough to try and have a go at me once (I think he’d had a few drinks) just off the coast of the People’s Republic of Zanzynoobzingtons in Western Africa, but I got the better of him, as you’d probably guess, and left him crying on the seabed half the shark he used to be.
That’s just the way Ezio is, tbh!
390 Ezio
Not the dreaded loan shark was it Ezio?
Nice to see an amiable late-night thread!
389 - Ezio. It wasn’t an overtly political thing from my point of view. It was more to do with the fact that as a real parent I would rather give what little money I leave to my undeserving brood than an even more undeserving branch of the state.
And anyone who (parent or not) would contend otherwise is a fool
Seth, fortunately it wasn’t.
Ezio, during my time as a barber in Zurich in the 60s, did once come into contact with a loan shark, offering me 1 million Zurichish Pounds that I would need to pay back at a terrible rate.
As you can imagine, Ezio kicked him in the throat, stole the money and married his pregnant wife, bringing up his daughter as my own.
It was then that I moved into the world of acting, getting my first part in a play in the west end called ‘Moolah!’. It wasn’t very good, and it was abandoned after 4 performances. To this day, I still think ‘what if…’
F*ck being amiable, Nick, you vile New Labour bugger you!
Death to the New Labour project. LIFE to the Ezio Party.
(LUVZ YA REALLY NICK!)
The Mastermind question is interesting with Brown outscoring Cameron 37 to 26 - Brown’s only victory.
386 Me
I have never considered Brown to be either a quickwit or a polymath: I guess it is just that he conforms to people’s expectations of the intelligent: i.e. withdrawn, unapproachable, ivory towered.
Not that I consider Cameron or Clegg any more deserving of winning here.
So who do we think would win a Parliamentary Mastermind contest. Hague would be up there I guess.
395-
Our very own Nick Palmer would at least beat David Lammy, I’d wager.
386/388
Its a BPIX poll so I think Mike will probably have a few things to say about them as usual. Have they still not joined the BPC?
396 - It probably all depends on the specialised subject.
Soem fun could be had on this point me thinks
In fact, Nicholas Palmer, if you don’t mind me asking you a wee question.
What is your primary emotion when you think that David Lammy can get a pretty decent junior ministerial position and you haven’t came within a mile of any ministerial position at all in over 10 years?
Is it a)anger b)humiliation c)entirely justified self-loathing?
ONLY KIDDING NICK, YOU GORGEOUS LABOURITE, YOU!
399 Richard Tyndall
Yes, they are not BPC members - but if I recall correctly their fieldwork is carried out by one of the big pollsters, and their results are usually broadly in line.
David Lammy on Mastermind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWwyVQ2IQuE
402-Wibbler
“but if I recall correctly their fieldwork is carried out by one of the big pollsters”
I think it is Yougov.
yeah - fair enough. Anyway, bookies dislike genuine value bettors with a passion - I’ve been banned or severely limited by 6 major uk/irish bookies, so if you want to keep your betting accounts intact, then probably best to ignore me & my occasional tips!
Nick, why don’t you ever reply to me?
I just want to be friends!
Oh, fine!
Ezio knows where he’s not wanted.
To bed (hopefully to dream of my hunky Labour MP Mr Palmer!!)
Farewell, brothers and sisters. And Martin Day, if you’re reading this, stay strong, man (but stop being racist, it’s…wrong, man. Seriously, it’s not on!)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1216397/Loloahi-Tapuis-father-lives-room-hut-1-day.html
In fact, before I go, a wee post just to ensure that Martin’s great work over the last few months doesn’t get undone.
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!!!!!!!!!
What has Martin Day said?
Me, I don’t think very many people know what he actually said. I’d assume the posts have been removed from the site and with good cause, but by all accounts Martin has been under a wee bit of pressure and let it all out on here with a racist rant.
No biggie though, we all have our foibles! We still love Martin, just as long as he keeps a lid on it in future, which he will.
As an immigrant, from Florence, it hurt me particularly.
As an Italian nobleman during the time of the renaissance, it didn’t hurt me.
As a gorgeous human being just like everyone else, it hurt me big time.
Martin knows this, and I know that he wouldn’t want to hurt Ezio, such is his level of love, respect and sexual desire for me.
It’s all going to be OK.
I’m just not going to stop typing here, I dont think.
Seriously, I just keep on going.
It’s 2 am , wtf am I doing this for?
Does anyone know? Tim? Tim, are you there?
I’ll stop now.
GOD, I’m messed up!
411-Was he expelled/suspended from the site?
358
Doesn’t it just show that Labour are already down to their loyalist/core vote? The swing voters having already settled on ‘not Labour’, but (some) still open to offers on where to place their ‘not Labour’ vote?
412 - I’m not sure, old chum.
I know he has decided to take a break from the site for a while, whether or not he would have been forced to do this anyway is something I just don’t know.
We all wish him well though, he’s not a bad guy our Martin!
Anyway, to bed, definately, now.
Goodnight everyone!
xxx
412. Mike said ‘appropriate action has been taken’, so I presume that means a suspension, or maybe even just that he can’t auto-publish for a little while. From what Easterross said, I’m sure Martin will be back here when he’s feeling better - I hope so anyway.
Incidentally, to return briefly to the subject of ace Jury Team by-election candidate John Smeaton, apparently he was asked at his press conference the other day whether he had any criminal convictions. His reply was “I have no convictions”. One occasion when a yes or no answer really would have been more advisable!
414-Thanks Ezio. It’s true that we all wish him well.
415
415-Thanks RedMeteor.
410
He lost it the other night on here. Most of what he said on the thread has now been deleted. It is probably a good indication of how serious it was that even those of us who count him as one of the good guys realised that he had gone way over the top and needed to take some time off. Basically whatever you might think of in terms of incitement to racial violence what he said was pretty much there. Those of us who were still up that late got to the point where the only option really was to stop posting and let the thread die.
The point is though that it was clear he had lost it and was probably not in any state to be aware of how much he had gone overboard. That is why most of the posts on here since have rightly been concerned with his well being rather than with recrimination. With a few notable and predictable exceptions.
From what I understand Mike’s decision to suspend him whilst entirely understandable was probably also unecessary as he himself has told some of the other members such as Easterross that he knows how seriously he lost it and is going to take some time off away from the board. I would suspect and hope that he will be on a pretty tight leash as far as moderation goes if and when he returns. If only because he does not seem to be in a place at the moment where he can trust himself not to repeat the outburst.
With a bit of luck he will return and his luck will have changed in real life so he is more at peace.
415
Was it a leading question Red? It seems an odd question to ask unless there was some specific reason for it.
404
Hello “me” , is it me? of have you not been about of late?
Good spot of the BPIX poll, polls are becoming more frequent of late, anyone would think there was a GE in the offing !!!
415 Red Meteor
Surely a Scottish Nationalist cannot object to a politician without convictions.
420. I think the Scottish press corps were just generally putting him through the fire to see how he would stand up to it - and the answer was not very well. The only question he handled well was about whether he had ever taken drugs. But when he was asked whether he supported the Jury Team’s proposals for electing select committees…well, it was difficult to escape the impression he was trying to bluff his way out of the fact he’d never previously encountered the term ’select committee’. No shame in that of course, but I might have expected a ‘man of the people’ to be honest about it.
421- “Hello “me” , is it me? of have you not been about of late?”
Hi MTF, it’s not you, it’s me! But I missed all of you so much, so I had to come back!
422. Bit of a snide joke by your standards, Seth! Are you suggesting that the SNP have no policies other than independence? I’ll resist the temptation to regurgitate the party’s policy platform, but suffice to say - not true. In fact, they’ve probably got stronger ideological clarity than either Labour or the Lib Dems at the moment!
We have a new thread, but you all missed the chance to be first!
and second…
413 Dave B
I am not convinced that Labour’s core vote is 25% of voters. They were much lower in the June Locals/Euros for example, albeit under the influence of the expenses scandal.
I think the key to shifting more labour votes is in the “progressive” and optimistic message that Cameron will try and promote. It will have to be persuasive though to have an effect
428
Was that shifting voters, or turnout?
I think Labour have already lost swing voters. And that any further gains the Conservatives might make will be from other ‘not Labour’ parties.
Another poster (Patrick?) reminded us in a recent thread that this election is likely to see an increased turnout from conservative supporters who didn’t vote in recent elections (Crewe by-election scenario). If that’s right, then the pollsters numbers will be off, as they’ll be filtering out people who didn’t vote in 2005.