Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?
September 3rd, 2009
What are the mechanics of the next nine months?
Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will take place on 2 October. Assuming it’s passed what happens next could have consequences for the UK election.
Three other countries have yet to ratify. In Germany there’s a legal challenge to the Constitutional Court and secondly - and as a result of the ruling from that challenge - the need to amend some domestic legislation. That is currently scheduled to be done by mid-September, a timetable which just gets the legislation through before the German general election. Should any slippage occur, it’s likely that Germany won’t have ratified before the Irish go to the polls.
In the two countries their presidents dislike the treaty. Neither Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic nor Lech Kaczynski want it to come into force but as so often with EU matters, neither do they want to be the ones to blame for it failing. Consequently, they’ve been waiting in the hope that someone else will kill it off, the Irish being the current excuse for delay.
The most intense pressure on the Czech and Polish leadership is likely to be between the Irish referendum (if it’s a Yes) to the European Council summit on 10-11 December. That’s when their position will be most exposed, their cover for not signing most limited and the lobbying for them to do so the greatest.
The Czechs may however have another device for delay: a referral of the treaty as a whole to their constitutional court - a move which has been mooted and the necessary support for which is claimed. Should it happen, it could yet be crucial in the ratification story as after the European Council, the political dynamics will change. There’s no Council due between January and early May, so the opportunities for lobbying, pressurising, offering incentives and issuing threats will be reduced. Also, it will become much easier to use the uncertainty of the UK general election as a new excuse - instead of it being ‘next year’, it will be ‘in only x weeks’.
If Lisbon is still a live issue come the general election - which really requires an Irish ‘Yes’ as well as Polish and Czech prevarication - that’s likely to have some impact on the campaign and the result. Perhaps the group of voters with the biggest decision to make are UKIP supporters. Although there aren’t many of them (ICM had them at 2% in their August Guardian poll; YouGov at 4% for the Sunday Times), those that there are could realistically make a difference in a dozen or more seats.
Some UKIP voters will stick with their party for ideological reasons whatever the situation with Lisbon, others will be anti-Tory and still others may want to see Lisbon implemented in the hope of discrediting the EU further and so bring withdrawal a step closer. A final group could perhaps be attracted by the prospect of halting Lisbon through the Conservatives’ promised referendum - but that’s only a promise if ratification is still uncertain. So in December, it won’t just be Angela Merkal and Nicholas Sarkozy encouraging Presidents Klaus and Kaczynski to ratify; Gordon Brown is very likely to be doing so too.
Whether that lobbying will be effective remains to be seen but one indication - largely overlooked so far - indicates it might well not be. When the Conservatives left the EPP group in the European Parliament to set up the ECR, the next two biggest parties they attracted were the Polish PiS and the Czech ODS: the parties of each country’s president. All want to stop the Lisbon Treaty and between them, they can probably do so.
Far from having their influence reduced by leaving the EPP, they could play a great role in determining its future. The Conservatives give cover to the other two; they in turn could give the breathing space the Tories need.
Still, all this depends on the Irish doing the right thing by Brussels first and that’s not altogether guaranteed. In the latest opinion poll, the Yes campaign was comfortably ahead but that was over two months ago. The same was true in the run-up to the June 2008 referendum and we all know how that turned out.
David Herdson
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First - and I didn’t know this was coming out now!
Now you can comment on topic
I hope so and 1 - Fix
Norwegian election
25% of voters still undecided.
http://www.norwaypost.no/content/view/22437/26/
When the Conservatives left the EPP group in the European Parliament to set up the ECR, the next two biggest parties they attracted were the Polish PiS and the Czech ODS: the parties of each country’s president. All want to stop the Lisbon Treaty and between them, they can probably do so.
Thats incorrect, the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) are largely Pro Lisbon and the Polish President Lech Kaczynski was involved in negotiating the Lisbon Treaty.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/09/cameron-kaminski-lisbon-treaty
Mwahaha, let’s hope so.
Come on you lovely Irish, Czech, German and Polish fellows. Death to the anti-democratic unaccountable money-grabbing lefties!
There was a TNS / MRBI poll in the Irish Times today so I would almost expect Lisbon figures tomorrow (but I am not certain about that).
1 - What a swizz!
Given the epic unpopularity of the Irish government, the odds on an Irish no - 5/1 with Paddy Power - look tempting. For those that think it will be close either way, it’s also possible to back a 50-55% yes vote at 5/2, giving effective odds of roughly 6/5 that the yes vote will be below 55%.
5 We want the Czechs to hold it up just long enough for a Cameron government to destroy it with 80% NO in a referendum.
Then we will all pee on the White Cliffs to mark our territory.
Up yours, Delors!
4. Isn’t it more that they didn’t want the blame for blocking it, when negotiations were under way? IIRC, President Kacynzki was pretty unhappy with much of it.
In any case, it seems they don’t support it now.
I don’t know if I’d prefer the Irish to vote it down, for an incoming British government to have that pleasure.
FPT For those of you devastated by lack of access to the Enquirer web site, I can reveal that Ted Kennedy confessed on his death bed that Chappaquidick was his fault, and he’s going tell Mary Jo that.
That might actually be true, as he visited her grave for the first time last November.
Other than that it’s mostly Michael Jackson (still) and the usual stuff.
8, that’s the thing. Blocking may be unpopular for them but Cameron’s EPP withdrawal has shown he doesn’t give a damn what the frogs or krauts think. Furthermore, a referendum here would mean a very early Tory act would be to let the people decide and have the Tories on the side of the vast majority, leaving the crushed lefties to try and campaign for the EU.
I think a yes vote in Ireland is more or less inevitable this time round; the 5/1 on a no looks pretty fair. Would love to see more polling though.
At the moment, Cameron’s best hopes of scrapping Lisbon rest on a Czech constitutional challenge. I’m not sure that’s a particularly strong card to play.
He could really screw the Irish over by refusing to ratify the guarantees to Nice though. If he announced that before the Lisbon referendum it would invalidate the new ‘Yes’ campaign’s arguments completely, but cause complete bedlam throughout the EU, and massive UK-Irish ructions. I don’t think it would happen. Childish calculation and manipulation seems to be more a hallmark of Brown’s style than Cameron.
Out of interest, what would the reaction in at ConHome and with the associated tendency be if the referendum resulted in a “Yes”?
12 Labour - the EU is dead, send for Bryan Gould!
Speaker Farage to announce the death of the EU to a packed HoC
9- Do you have any evidence that they don’t support it now?
What I’ve read they’ll ratify if the Irish Vote yes and the Polish Presidential elections are coming up in which Lech Kaczynski wishes to claim credit for getting Lisbon through as a “good deal for Poland”
Remember Law and Justice love the CAP.
14 Which referendum?
16 The fact that the President has failed to ratify it indicates that he is none too happy with it.
14 - The chances of the people of the UK voting yes to Lisbon are so close to ero as to hardly rate measuring.
Just watched Gordo trying to squirm away from a TV debate. Got to love his idea of a public “debate”, the example he gave was that he had a “debate” yesterday with hand picked unemployed youngsters used as part of relaunch #278.
If the Paddys refuse their EU masters again…….when will Brussels make them hold a 3rd referndum? Easter?, just before Broon and McLabour get thrown out?
21 - The “EU masters” did not call the 2nd Lisbon referendum. The Irish government did. There will be no 3rd referendum.
Just listening to Nigel Farage about Lisbon on Irish radio right now. I cant imagine what he thinks he is trying to achieve. He wants a yes vote?!
Within minutes of the NO vote Barosson was on TV saying they wouldnt let it lie, the EUire government is in the pocket of Brussels every bit as much as the much as the Scotch and McBritish governments.
If the Oirish vote no again watch this space, there would be a 3rd referendum, Moher Brussels would demand it, only the worst kind of indoctrinated useful fool could not see that.
18. Yes, that’s the crucial point. If he wanted to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, he could literally do so today; all the other Polish stages have been passed. He’s not doing so which is a very strong pointer to the suggestion that he doesn’t want to. That he hasn’t actively refused to sign I’d put more down to a desire that someone else kills it off first.
22, and the decision to release the Lockerbie bomber is entirely a matter for the Scottish Government.
And by chance “neil” that you are a Jock Jock, you can have the EU, England has no problems being rid of the Scotch ball and chain, it is after all the Scotch Regions destiny to be an Independent (hoho) puppet state of Mother Brussels.
Alex Salmond and the SNP are fully committed to FULL EU membership for Schoooortland, theyre the biggest “Unionists” of them all……..EUnionists.
Da Fink at Comment Central - Tim Montgomerie and Nigel Farage
“Tim Montgomerie has startled me with his post on Ukip Home Conservative Home about Nigel Farage’s decision to stand against John Bercow:
I’d be tempted to vote UKIP if I lived in Buckingham
If I have understood him correctly, Tim would not propose to do this because he approves of Mr Farage’s politics, although it seems (intriguingly) that his objections are not that great.
His temptation is instead caused by his desire to remove Mr Bercow, because he was put in place by Labour MPs.
Can I ask him to think again?
Would it be a good idea to overturn the convention that Speakers are not challenged in their constituency by serious alternatives with mainstream support? How does he propose that Mr Bercow defend himself?
Nigel Presumably he would have to outline his politics and start to attack those of Mr Farage. Does Tim think this would be a good development?
Conservative MPs forced out the last Speaker, knowing full well that it meant that Labour would have a majority say in the next choice.
What did Tories think would happen? It is time they accepted that Mr Bercow was fairly elected and moved on.”
@25:
Maybe he wants to save the privilege of putting a bullet in Lisbon’s head for his good friend Dave?
@28:
No, Christina, Tim’s right.
It would be a good thing for democracy if that cretin Bercow loses his seat.
29, Lisbon could become so unacceptable it strengthens UKIP considerably.
22. The “EU masters” made it clear to Ireland to hold another referendum ‘or else’ which amounts to the same thing.
Ireland won’t hold a third referendum for the simple reason that in the event of another no vote, Britain would hold one itself first before an Irish ‘third’, should the Tories win next May.
30, incidentally, is Bercow no longer a Tory (officially)?
I think the main uncertainty in Ireland at the moment isn’t the Lisbon referendum but the vote on relaxing the rules for the National Asset Management Agency straight afterwards… if the Greens vote against, then that could bring down Fianna Fail and cause a snap election.
28
No Christina they forced him out because he was so mired in the whole expenses controversy and had so mismanaged the issue that they knew he would have to go if only to save their own necks. They had little thought as to who woud succeed him at the time and were only interested in survival.
The fact is that they ended up with a Speaker who was not only ideologically opposed to much of what the Tories believed in but was, if anything, more mired in the expenses issue than Martin.
And yes it would be great to see Bercow challenged and beaten by Farage. Many of those now whittering about ‘precedent’ were more than happy to see tradition thrown out of the window when Martin was driven out. They cannot now start bleating about those same traditions when a new challenge is launched against a sitting Speaker.
35, Weatherill was opposed as well, in 1987.
Here’s my dream scenario, I do expect Ireland to vote yes, and for the Czechs and Poles to hold out waiting for the GE next May. Cameron gets in and calls a referendum, straight away he gets a phone call from Sarkozy or Merkel, “OK Dave, what do you want?” Cameron gets opt outs from most of the contentious provisions, puts it to a referendum and it is passed.
Nightmare is for the Czechs and the Poles to be cowed into submission.
More on Fianna Fail’s problems
http://www.herald.ie/national-news/snap-election-now-possible-greens-warn-1877174.html
37
Never happen.
No matter how he wraps it up the British public will simply never vote for the Lisbon Treaty. They have seen way too many times how often the promises and opt outs dolled out by Brussels turn out to be hollow shells. the Eurosceptrics would have a field day with it and it would destroy Cameron’s government before it had even got started.
37 The Oncoming Storm
Won’t happen. The most contentious parts are also the most visible parts - a single unelected EU President/Foreign Minister.
Also, if the Treaty is changed the process of ratification has to begin again in all 27 countries.
28 I don’t know where the idea has come from that there’s a constitutional convention that the main parties don’t run against the Speaker. It’s just no true. A party will usually not run against a Speaker from its own ranks (and in a safe seat, that usually means he’s a shoo-in) but that’s about it.
38 - The detail of that poll is what makes me think a no vote is a serious contender. If it becomes apparent that Ireland looks likely to be stuck with a government of record-breaking unpopularity for another three years, might not voters take action in the one vote that they are casting this year?
37 That’s no good because we’d still have passed Lisbon, still be heading down the road to “ever closer union” even if we have temporary (like the rebate) opt outs to a few bits. We need to have a definite NO to Lisbon so that either others go on without us, or the whole thing stops
22. Yeah? I remember the day after the first vote innumerable Irish politicians (from the Yes and No camps) coming on TV and saying, No, there will not be a second referendum, the Irish people have spoken, this is an emphatic decision, the margin is big, this isn’t a re-run of Nice, blah blah.
Within a couple of months the Irish politicians had crumbled to EU bullying and started hinting that well, you know, maybe, just maybe, with enough changes, there could possibly be a second vote… yadda yadda.
Now we have a second vote.
If you vote No again, the only reason there wouldn’t be a THIRD vote is because the Brits by then will have nixed it, and the UK will not be bullied like Ireland.
But if the UK didn’t exist and you voted No, of course there would be a 3rd vote. And of course Irish politicians would deny that a 3rd vote was a possibility, then the text would be tweaked, then it becomes a whole new vote on a “different” Treaty.
Bingo, a 3rd vote.
You really think little Ireland would be allowed to stop European integration? It’s delusional.
The only alternative to a 3rd vote would be Brussels simply saying: sign up or leave. In which case you would immediately sign up, and probably just skip the referendum bit.
Neil, how can you trot out this drivel. You are obviously not stupid. You’ve seen how the EU works this last year, so have we all.
You were bullied into a 2nd vote, and you would again be bullied into submission, even if you dared to say No the 2nd time.
18/25 - Sean Fear and David Herdson.
I’ll offer you both £50 at evens that the Poles ratify Lisbon before next Easter, if the Irish vote yes.
35.Richard, he is the Speaker, he is supposed to be above party politics now. I happen to hope that he will grow into the job and become as good as Betty Boothroyd in time.
And to be honest, Farage would be worse than Bercow. This is a typical stunt by UKIP, and a pretty stupid one politically as well.
Desperate times call for desperate measures: With seemingly no hope in the GE, how about a Labour manifesto pledge for an EU referendum - in or out? Would be interesting to see UKIP campaigning for a Labour win!
45 I wouldn’t be prepared to take that bet, because he might very well succumb to the pressure that he would face in that situation.
It would be great comedy if Farage beat Bercow [who I can't stand].
If I lived in Buckingham, I’d vote for Nigel - not for his views/expenses or whatever - purely for the Maverick Tendency which has been in total decline for many years.
That’s Field, Hoey, Hannan and Farage [potentially] - any more suggestions?
Mr Herdson - any more news on your prediction of something to ‘watch out for’ this afternoon?
44 - It’s simply impossible to bully people into doing something they want to do. The Irish political establishment wanted a second referendum, they werent bullied into it.
42 - You could just as easily say that the (pro Lisbon) opposition parties are soaring and that this is a good sign for the ‘yes’ campaign. I dont think there is direct link between satisfaction or otherwise with the government and support for Lisbon.
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You can either email publicpanel@ips.gsi.gov.uk or call 020 3356 8174
Travel expenses will be covered.
I encourage all civil libertarians to spread the word on other blogs.
No one is suggesting Farage should be Speaker. Only that he shoudl stop Bercow from being so by removing him as an MP.
And Farage woudl be a far better MP than Bercow has ever been. He does at least have principles which is not something anyone would claim for Bercow.
48 - Most of Law and justice are pro Lisbon, they won’t need any arm twisting.
50 - Point taken: my point was more related to the Lisbon vote being the one democratic occasion in the near future that gave voters the opportunity to stick two fingers up at the establishment. I do accept that almost all Irish political parties support the Lisbon treaty, government and opposition.
50. “It’s simply impossible to bully people into doing something they want to do.”
You mean like Chirac agreeing to the UK’s rebate? You’re a great poster Neil, but to argue arm-twisting isn’t part of international diplomacy is a pretty loony stance.
46, if Bercow were above party politics I’d agree. He’s nothing but Michael Martin with the ability to read and a nicer accent.
re the PT ‘punt on Farage’
Should the Speaker be elected by MPs from a pool of MPs?
Should the public elect a speaker at each election? From party nominations? ie nominated by people who are MPs?
Should the speaker move from being the protector of parliament from the sovereign to the protector of the public from the administration and MPs.
I think the number of MPs needs to be cut to about 500 which will give them a bigger constituency workload to justify their wages (I would disproportionately cut Welsh Scottish and MPs as well.
Given that this would lead to a fall in the numbers of people in the available pool to be ministers perhaps Peers or their replacement should be able to speak but not vote in the Commons. A public vote on Speaker might be something which fits in with this.
On the other hand we already have too many ministers ministries and govt meddling.
“44 - It’s simply impossible to bully people into doing something they want to do. The Irish political establishment wanted a second referendum, they werent bullied into it”
Yes of course. That Cowen geezer just loves holding expensive controversial divisive referendums all the time, referendums he might lose given that he is already so unpopular.
For f*cks sake Neil. We all saw what we saw. Ireland waved its little fist and said No, the politicians solemnly declared Ireland Had Spoken, three months later Europe cracked the whip and you folded.
You didn’t even get any real changes to the Treaty. Just bits of vague stuff that MIGHT be added to a DIFFERENT Treaty LATER.
I suppose in the narrowest possible sense you could say that the Irish Establishment *wanted* a 2nd referendum, but that’s only in the same sense that someone with a gun at his head really *wants* the gun to be put away, and will therefore agree to anything to achieve that.
47
Too late for that. UKIP could reasonably point to previous Labour election pledges on the issue of the EU and claim that such a referendum promise would be renaged upon straight after an election. Labour have form on this and so it would be an easy get out for UKIP.
It would be interesting to see some of the Tory posters rank the following MPs in order of satisfaction that it would give them to see defeated:
1) Ed Balls
2) Alistair Darling
3) Sion Simon
4) Lembit Opik
5) Chris Huhne
6) John Bercow
Answers in order from most satisfaction to least satisfaction, please.
Guido is reporting a rumor that a PPS is resigning this evening….
58 - No Irish politicos believe in this guff. Believe me. They think the European project is important and they love thinking they are at the heart of it. The Irish presidency made a lot of progress in getting the Treaty to the stage it is now at (after the debacle of the Italian presidency). These people genuinely want to see Lisbon passed and had no problems in calling a second referendum. The “EU” didnt have to hold a gun to its head - the Irish establishment was just waiting the requisite period to hold a rerun. We all *knew* this was going to happem if the first result was a no.
61. Believe it when I see it.
If it’s true then why the f*ck didn’t he/she do it in June when it would have helped bring Brown down?
58 - The previous referendum was before the Irish Economy collapsed, while numpties like Alex Salmond were going on about Iceland and the Arc of Prosperity.
I’m sure the Irish will have changed their minds, as the Icelanders and the Scots would have done.
As a floater who plans to vote Tory this time:
1) Sion Simon
2) Ed Balls
3) John Bercow
4) Chris Huhne
5) Lembit Opik
6) Alistair Darling
My ratings are based on media performance, sliminess, comedy value and creative accounting.
55 - I’m not denying that the EU would be prepared to bully a small state into ratification. Just that, in the case of Ireland, they dont need to. The Irish government is more than willing to do the necessary on their behalf.
56 MD - the ability to read and a nicer accent.
Qualities not to be underestimated in a Speaker, it has to be admitted.
Compare and contrast:
“There is no orgainsation called “the Irish Establishment”.
by Neil August 19th, 2009 at 12:02 pm”
with
“The Irish political establishment wanted a second referendum, they werent bullied into it.
by Neil September 3rd, 2009 at 6:29 pm”
A PPS is relatively minor in the grand scheme of things… if Brown can resist Purnell, Blears, and Flint he can probably resist a no-name dogsbody.
That said, if it sparks a new round of rumours about threats to the leadership it will be great fun.
65 - Remarkably similar to my list (a Green voter). Though I dont know why Huhne or Darling deserve to be there particularly. They seem decent enough.
60. You missed out Vince Cable.
60.
Simon, because he’s a hateful little s***!
Balls, no further explanation necessary,
Darling, I actually think he’s a decent man who was given a huge mess by Gordon. I also think he’s decided to sacrifice his career so as to keep Balls out of the Treasury.
No opinions on Opik, Huhne and Bercow really.
65, 70 - My ratings were for diehard Tories really, though I’m grateful for your views. There is a purpose to the question. Floating voters, like me, will have their own views. These names do not reflect my own prejudices - I wouldn’t get any particular satisfaction about seeing either Alistair Darling or Lembit Opik going (or for that matter, John Bercow).
60.antifrank, Bercow would be at the bottom of that list. I want the Tories to win the next GE more than I dislike Bercow. Farage picked the wrong seat in the wrong GE as well. He would have been better going after a dodgy Labour MP in a marginal, he has more chance of picking off disheartened Labour voters this time.
I don’t think that UKIP will get the Tory votes he needs to pick off a Speaker that was a Tory MP.
60 antifrank:
1) Ed Balls [that was an easy choice!]
2) Sion Simon
3) Lembit Opik
4) John Bercow
5) Chris Huhne
6) Alistair Darling
72. Darling was a serial flipper and tax avoider, at the same time as he was raising taxes on the rest of us, and lecturing us all on probity.
UGH.
He is a *unt, he just isn’t QUITE as much of a *unt as the rest of the Labour Front Bench, and therefore seems OK. A bit like Rudolf Hess amongst the Nazis.
60 - *Joins Tory Party*
1.Sion Simon
2.Lembit Opik
3.John Bercow
4.Ed Balls
5.Chris Huhne
6.Alistair Darling
*impregnates secretary, fiddles expenses, gets forgiveness from Dave and leaves Tory Party*
68 - Oh please Sean, it’s surely beneath you to take comments out of context like that. It’s not even making a point!
75 I should add that only Balls going would really give me a Portillo-like feeling. The others I don’t object to on a personal basis; Sion Simon provides such comedy value that it is arguable that departure would be a pity.
78 - If you search the archives you’ll find Sean has been for and against every politician, policy, philosophical position and war he has ever commented on.
77.Tim, failed there I am afraid. Balls should have been your No1 choice if you were really trying to get into the mind of a Tory.
80 - Consistency is a sign of a small mind. By that test, SeanT must have a brain the size of a planet.
78. Sorry, but you’re an inconsistent tit on this issue, and it just needs proving occasionally - as I have just done.
And I see now that your take on Political Ireland *wanting* a 2nd referendum is that the entire Irish political establishment is a bunch of antidemocratic europhile wankers who don’t give a f*ck about the people’s opinion and would happily bend over for Brussels no matter what.
In which case, well yes, I bow to your superior knowledge of The Irish Political Establishment, as you call it, even though you also believe such a thing doesn’t exist.
79. Sadly the depressing thin about Simon is that he’s only likely to go on a 1906 or 1931 style result. The swing needed is 15.05%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/birminghamerdington
60.
1) Gordon Brown
2) Gordon Brown
3) Ed Balls
4) Yvette Cooper Balls
5) Mr and Mrs Balls
Otherwise: Balls, Simon, Huhne, Opic, Darling, Bercow.
I personally don’t get overly fussed about Darling especially since he kept Balls out from No. 11 - he’s actually gone up in my estimations for that!
92 Get the quotation right, please, antifrank, in all its glory:
“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds”
84, he’ll not be voted out. Shame… for Labour.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
81.
“Balls should have been your No1 choice if you were really trying to get into the mind of a Tory.”
Christina D has finally succumbed to the overwhelmingly obvious truth that Gordo and crew (Balls high among them) are just another load of useless Tory plonkers.
Peter Hoskin at the Coffee House Blog - Brown’s misplaced hope
“In his insightful article on Brown and the forthcoming G20 summit, Francis Elliot writes a sentence which should terrify Labour supporters:
“[Gordon Brown] has already decided that his only hope of a comeback in the polls lies with the economy.”"
Oh dear.
Speaking of Balls.
Da Fink at Comment Central - Gordon’s great dividing lines
“I think I see where Brown is going with this.
The Tories have agreed to protect the NHS budget. They have not made the same promise about schools and universities.
Brown may now work on the figures to allow Labour to contrast their spending on education with Tory cuts. rambling it may have been, but in the end all this waffle will come back to investment v cuts with education rather than health as the focus.”
There is a different between being a cyclothymic slightly manic depressive moodswinging emotionally labile potentially alcoholic thriller writer in recovery from smack addiction who therefore can be a tad capricious in his opinions, and just blindly claiming a thing doesn’t even exist one day, and the next saying it does, which is wot Neil just did.
But I’ll get back to you on this tomorrow.
86 - I shall send myself to the dunce’s corner. It is a good quotation and given how often I contradict myself, it represents a principle that I occasionally try to console myself with.
83 - I wasnt being inconsistent. In the first instance I was denying that the “Irish Establishment” was trying to fix the referendum by redrafting the broadcasting rules. I was slightly poking fun at your paranoia about this rather than criticising your use of the phrase “political establishment” to describe the main political parties and government (which is what I did in the second post). What point all this makes is beyond me.
Courtenay Cox, her off of Friends with the dark hair, wants to make a TV series out of my memoir Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet You. I just got off a conference call to LA with her producer and writer.
Prepare for the potential horror of an entire American sitcom about ME.
The Conservatives are holding an Open Primary for Mayor of Bedford, with Iain Dale moderating the candidates debate
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-you-fancy-being-mayor-of-bedford.html
75 / 77. Good to see Alistair Darling at the bottom of everyone’s list. He’s done an outstanding job in the most troubling of economic times. I would go so far as to suggest Cameron would be well served giving him an important role in a Tory government, should they go on to win the next election. Personally I would hire him as chancellor immediately and ditch Osbourne.
Sion Simon must be last.
I want him alive, on the field of battle, to bear witness to the number of his army put to the sword.
To taste his own words, turned to ashes in his mouth, with no place to run, no place to hide from the magnitude of this defeat.
90 Sean, you misunderstand the position surely you recognise that Ireland must vote yes ” to complete the process started by the Treaty of Amsterdam and by the Treaty of Nice with a view to enhancing the efficiency and democratic legitimacy of the Union and to improving the coherence of its action,”*
Don’t you see how ignoring the Constitutions rejection by France & the Netherlands and getting the Irish to vote again on the successor treaty embeds the democratic legitimacy of the Union?
Its worth remembering that it was the Irish Presidency which finalised the Constitution, they have skin in the game in getting it through in it’s altered state, whatever the processes chosen lack in popular support.
*preamble to the Treaty of Lisbon
Off topic, Guido is now naming Eric Joyce as the rumoured resigning PPS.
On Topic.
I’d make two observations.
1.Cameron must be praying for an Irish Yes and ratification of Lisbon, as the last thing he wants is Bill Cash & Co all over the media for the first year of his premiership.
2.His judgement over this new grouping has been, frankly laughable.
He’s ended up in alliance with a party full of racists,anti semities and homophobes on the basis that they are anti EU integration.
Now he finds out that his allies are actually pro Lisbon and pro CAP.
Really dumb politics.
93, haha, congrats
Remember us when you’re rich and famous.
93
Shut up and think of the money…
92. OK, here’s my point: try not to blatantly contradict yourself, it makes you look like a dildo.
Now let’s move on and discuss BOTTOMS.
95
I assume we can all take that as a joke… or the product of a deranged mind.
99, are you being purposefully thick-witted? If Cameron gets a referendum he gets to bloody the nose of the EU and plant the Tories firmly on the side of the public against craven lefties and the EU.
PPS Eric Joyce
http://order-order.com/2009/09/03/eric-joyce-rumoured-to-be-resigning-as-pps/
97 - “they have skin in the game in getting it through in it’s altered state, whatever the processes chosen lack in popular support”
They did a good job on the Treaty actually. But they wont do *anything* to push it through. If they were willing to do *anything* they’s simply have parliament ratify it. Of course the people would murder them at the next election so they wont do that.
96 - You make it sound like the retreat to Jalalabad.
94.
I trust the candidates will be required to address themselves to the Murdoch agenda:
“”Mr Cameron wants people to vote Tory because they believe in his party*, not as a protest. Let him spell out his policies clearly so we know where he stands. ” - The Sun Says”
(*as in believe in tooth fairy - from gut and fear, not brain and consideration)
105. Didn’t he have expenses trouble?
102 - Here’s mine, pay more attention to punctuation and context. Maybe then you’ll understand that I wasnt contradicting myself. But agreed, this is worse than wanking.
100, 101. I shouldn’t worry, the chances are you will be spared this ordeal. I’ve reached this stage in Hollywood Negotiations before, and usually nothing happens.
I do not repine.
If it were one of Mandelson’s infinite lackies about to resign it would make no difference whatsoever… but a Defence PPS might put a different and very serious spin on things.
93
Got to be better than a series of Party Election Broadcasts.
Surely?
111 - Who are you hoping will play you?
111 - Who are you hoping will play you?
84. Oncoming storm
“Sadly the depressing thin about Simon is that he’s only likely to go on a 1906 or 1931 style result. The swing needed is 15.05%”
2008 swing was over 19%:
Con 7045
Lab 5581
LD 2615
BNP 1699
Grn 593
Oth 275
And hasn’t the LDV factory in the area recently closed?
79. “Sion Simon provides such comedy value that it is arguable that departure would be a pity.”
No he’s a complete tw*nt, I daydream about a pack of hyenas escaping from London Zoo and getting in to the House of Commons, Sion Simon is one of the MPs that always ends up being eaten alive.
Looks like Guido is right about Joyce.
Paul Waugh confirms the resignation
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/3738537073
113 I think Matt in today’s Telegraph speaks for most in his cartoon on the proposed Leaders Debates (and PPBs for that matter).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
This guy from Mebyon Kernow, the Cornish national party (on the far right in the 2nd photo down), is also a fine actor I understand.
http://www.mebyonkernow.org/
I think he’d be good to play me in the sitcom. Got the right Cornish *look*. And he has that certain debonair sexual menace. Pantherine.
Dementieva’s out of the US Open. It’s only the 2nd or 3rd round. Not very good, but I bet the odds on Oudin were tasty.
93. SeanT
But which actor whould you want to play you?
While driving across Ireland on Tuesday I was listening to newstalk radio. There was no mention of the referendum but lots about the recession and the banking crisis. Apparently the biggest threat to the banks is the “taxi clones”, everyone seems terrified of them
93 - don’t speak too soon, SeanT. Once she finds out you’ve spelled her name incorrectly it might not pan out
Channel 4 news confirms the resignation too.
121 - He does indeed bring a big cat irresistibly to mind: Garfield.
116. True but local election results don’t always transfer across to GE’s.
Yes LDV were based there and have now gone. The main reason why I think he’ll survive is because the Tories will have better chances elsewhere in Birmingham. Edgbaston is an absolute sitter and it will be a shock if Gisela Stuart survives, the current poll levels suggest that the Tories have good chances in Northfield and Selly Oak and if things go really well for them then Hodge Hill may come into play.
98.antifrank, if he does resign,it might be a personal decision to do with his job.
Guido - “Rumour is widespread. Eric Joyce not answering his mobile for the last two hours. If he is resigning as PPS to the Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth and he blames the treatment of soldiers, it will be explosive. If…”
There is something really iffy going on right now in Afghanistan, and the desperate MOD spin ain’t matching the reality of the war on the ground. Our boys have really been failed. And Brown and his government should resign in disgrace on that issue alone.
119.
If Joyce does a ‘Howe’ then its devastating for Labour and potentially all over for Brown.
Does anyone know who Joyce is close to politically?
Eric Joyce is a former Army Major in the Black Watch. His words will carry quite a lot of additional weight…
Eric Joyce letter:
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/the+uk+must+honour+its+fighting+forces/3330897
Once all the ministers and PPS’s and the like have resigned, is there some further step they need to take to get even further away from Toxic Brown and his government of all the halfwits?
Labour’s resignation equispaz dilemma
‘Couldn’t we run away a bit more?’
Unfortunately I don’t think the resignation of a minor deputy under minister for Defence is quite in the Geoffrey Howe league. No one has ever heard of Eric Joyce before, so they won’t exactly notice now he’s gone.
Brown survived about a dozen resignations a few months ago, of Cabinet Ministers.
As long as there is no bold and obvious successor to Brown, a leader who would evidently do better, Gordo is safe. And there isn’t such a candidate.
Eric Jocye resignation letter ~ extract
“Labour was returned to power in 1997 on the back of your great success in turning the Economy from a weakness into a strength for Labour. Our continuing success in helping people from all parts of society become more prosperous, while helping the least well-off most, is built upon that. ”
What planet he this guy on!!
128. Oncoming Storm
I agree with you about Edgbaston (which is why I’ve always tipped Stuart to defect), Northfield and Selly Oak but Erdington is a much, much better Conservative target than Hodge Hill.
Local results often don’t transfer over at general elections but Birmingham has a history of high swings and is an area that is heavily affected by recessions.
Labour are favourites in Erdington but I think the 4/1 Shadsy is offering on the Conservatives there is about right.
135, he’s one of the largest expenses claimants, which makes a rather open goal for smearing.
This is the killer bit;
“Behind the hand attacks by any Labour figure on senior service personnel are now, to the public, indistinguishable from attacks on the services themselves. Conversely, in my view we should allow our service personnel greater latitude to voice their views on matters which make distinctions between defence and politics pointless.”
I wonder who he could be referring to?
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/full+text+eric+joyceaposs+resignation/3330797
134 SeanT
Oh - I don’t think this will bring Brown down.
But it starts off the leadership speculation again - and it means that Brown breaking the military covenant stays top of the news agenda.
It is more serious than a PPS from say, education or transport, because Afghanistan and Gordon Brown’s funding of it are such toxic political issues.
138 cough *Dannett* cough
134 Sean, you are forgetting the brilliant Alan Johnson, a man possessed of a greatness so vast he must never acknowledge it.
Bananaman Versus The Great Deliverer Versus Hattie Versus Rinka the Stinker in a bonfire of the inanities
135.Eric Jocye resignation letter ~ extract ~ more
“I believe the next election is ours to win, thanks greatly to your personal great economic success.”
They really do have problems if all labour MP think this.
128 Oncoming Storm. Not as sure as you. Hodge Hill is along with Hall Green being targetted by the Lib Dems(By Election built them up). A Tory surge is possible but given almost any battle with Labour is easier I’d have thought Northfield, Perry Bar and even Erdington more likely victory seats for the Tories.
Scotland might have released Megrahi on compassionate grounds, but California denied the same for Manson follower Susan Atkins yesterday. In recent years, she was diagnosed with terminal brain cancer. One of her legs has been amputated and the other is paralyzed. Doctors say she has only months to live (sound familiar?). Unlike Megrahi who looked comparatively spry, Atkins slept on a gurney during her hearing.
134. SeanT
Joyce is a former soldier (a rare breed in Labour) and if he personally blamed Brown for deaths in Afghanistan it would be very bad. Every death from then on would lead to more criticism of Brown.
I doubt though that Joyce will go far enough.
“your personal great economic success”
Well Brown has certainly enriched himself over the last 12 years.
Pity that so few other people have though.
142 - “thanks greatly to your personal great economic success.”
- is he referring to royalties from Gordon’s books on courage?
45. Not sure that evens is value. I’d take it if the Poles and Czechs haven’t ratified by January 1. As I say in the article, the pressure on the two presidents will be greatest between the Irish referendum (if Yes) and the EU summit. That pressure from Sarkozy and Merkal will be huge - the point about Kaczynski having signed the treaty is one that has already been put to him.
Will the buckle under the pressure? I don’t know. I’d like to think not and that’s certainly the impression they’re giving out but history suggests that deals end up getting done.
Waugh speculates on a ‘coordinated attack’
Initial Joyce thoughts: is this a random event or part of coordinated attack? Can PM’s critics devise another ham-fisted coup?
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/statuses/3738865751
147 no, I think referring to Brown’s risk-free property portfolio - second homes funded by the taxpayer with grace and favour protection against his own economic meltdown.
Nice work if you can get it.
148 Mr Herdson - any update on your teasing this morning?
Whatever it is Guido is right, its explosive.
I doubt this is a coordinated attack unfortunately.
According to the letter Ainsworth has known for a few weeks
From http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/full+text+eric+joyceaposs+resignation/3330797
150 - yes, thanks to Gordon even “safe as houses” doesn’t mean what it did.
149 Excellent, a comedy cavalcade of obtuse lefties falling on their swords capped off by a mid-level cabinet minister who drops his trousers round his ankles befoe anyone else has consented to the love-in.
And a few puff pieces for The Great Deliverer and Hattie from their per journos.
Meanwhile the economy continues to stutter.
But what about the release of Megrahi??
Interesting facebook group concerning another inmate with cancer.
Bring Brett lee Duxbury home
Category: Common Interest - Health & Wellness
Description: Brett is currently in prison serving a 5yr sentence,(realease date jan 2010). He was diagnosed with in-operable lung cancer5 months ago, and has been refused release (reason:MEDIUM RISK TO PUBLIC. AND IS NOT ILL ENOUGH to be let home) APPARENTLY!!!! He is having on going treatment, which makes him so poorly, that he cant eat, and sleeps for days.. show Brett your support and bring him home so that his 3 children and family can look after him properly…
Ladbrokes odds on Conservative wins in Birmingham:
Edgbaston 1/5
Erdington 4/1
Hall Green 16/1
Hodge Hill 100/1
Northfield 2/1
Perry Barr 12/1
Selly Oak 6/4
I think Northfield and perhaps Selly Oak seem good value. Perry Barr isn’t - it was 33/1 before PfP put money on them and told everyone
148 - It won’t take any pressure, Law and Justice are a pro Lisbon, pro CAP Party, sadly either the Tories didn’t know that or they have been deliberately deceptive in their efforts to paint their new grouping as something other than the car crash it was always going to be.
135: ‘What planet he this guy on!!’
With most resignation letters they chuck in a few token warm words so as not to sound bitter and rancorous. I think even Howe did it.
153 wibbler - I agree, it doesn’t sound like a part of anything wider.
153
From what I can see of the letter it doesn’t even look like coordinated reasoning
159. Robusticus
IIRC Howe put in the usual ‘continue to loyally support’ line.
IIRC also one person who didn’t was Lamont.
What sort of twit to you have to be to be an underling of Bob All Star Ainsworth anyway?
There are Coffee Machines with more respect and authority than him
153
If Ainsworth knew then The Grate Gordo would also know.
Does this explain the Dear Leader’s visit to Affyland?
OT - spot the difference..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2007/mar/20/labourleadership.labour
The fact is though that this will be portrayed as ‘Brown betrays troops in Afghanistan says former soldier turned Labour MP.’
Not good for Labour, particularly not good for Labour in Scotland and white working class areas.
161 Bono Publico
Well, the points of substance in that letter are
- unhappiness with Labour ministers smearing Dannatt;
- unhappiness that France and Germany aren’t doing more, and that Obama isn’t doing more to recognize our contribution;
- unhappiness that Labour doesn’t ‘empathise’ with the military.
together with a large amount of fluff.
It is an extraordinarily badly written letter, but still quite interesting…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8237041.stm
Evening all, I suppoe this resignation is already doing the rounds?
Apparently Eric Joyce is the ONLY serving Labour MP with military experience…
I wonder if something else is behind this? Maybe he won’t sign up to the lastest spin line..
170 careful now, Tim will call you a conspiracy theorist whackjob.
Meanwhile, the expenses smearing has already started
http://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/statuses/3738743894
I wonder if Eric Joyce decided to go when he was forced onto radio to defend the MoD case trying to claw back compensation payments to injured soldiers - he seemed uneasy then. It looks like he decided to go but agreed to let a little time pass. As a resignation letter there is so much sugar and so little salt that it looks like he is trying to cause least damage but just wants out (as did his previous boss).
I heard that Bob Ainsworth was a composite based on that irritating bloke from childhood who didn’t like you kicking balls on the grass and your Mum said ‘thinks he is God, not a parish councillor’ and who turned out to be a bad’un, Ricky Tomlinson without the charm and a Union man who insists on eating his effing Haslet sandwiches instead of the nice buffet spread you have laid on.
161. “Most important of all, we must make it clear to every serviceman and woman, their families and the British public that we give their well-being the highest political priority.”
What a way to to give soldiers their due. What does Eric Joyce mean by ‘the highest political priority? The word political says it all.
174 Ricky Tomlinson, charm? Ricky Tomlinson is Ricky Tomlinson without the charm.
174 Bob Ainsworth is today’s Gordon Proxy and thus is gonna get it.
Another day, another PPS.
Gordon is getting on with the job which makes him incapable of deciding if he wants to debate - it being a mighty complicated ‘decision’. Seriously, whats to consider?
Its just grim, Labour no longer care, they are just existing and going nowhere.
148. This thread is the article / thoughts I was alluding to. The headline is a bit of hyperbole but the symbollism is I think significant and shouldn’t be underrated. People who think that things will carry on as before should ask quite why the parties aren’t in the EPP in the first place.
158. On which subject, irrespective of what PiS’s formally stated position might be, the facts remains that Kaczynski personally is known to be unkeen on signing and that he hasn’t done so yet. It’s also clear that the way the EU works, no-one like to be the one who kills something off, which is why I expect delay rather than outright rejection. There are benefits that accrue from being seen to be in favour, whatever one’s true opinions. Watch the actions, not the words.
174. Ted
Has Ricky tomlinson ever played a character apart from ‘middle aged scouse git’?
176 Kind of the point Ted
It’s a bit of a dull resignation. We’ve already had one and a half cabinet ministers resign, a PPS is a bit of a step down. Plus his resignation letter is a bit rubbish, and spends plenty of time praising Brown.
Already assured of his footnote in the history books, Joyce is the first MP to claim more than £1 million cumulatively in expenses
Here’s a clip of Joyce trying to explain away his expenses claims;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm20dU5O9MU
This is the sort of performance which led Easteross to say last year “I hope the SNP lobs a one tone shell up his arrogant arse!”
Reading the Times report perhaps Major Joyce chose his time with more devious intent than I gave him credit for:
“The announcement comes less than a day before the Prime Minister was due to make a major speech relaunching his Afghan strategy.”
There goes another relaunch…..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6820789.ece
I know there is a lot of lobby fodder in Labour - but exactly who in their right mind is going to take the poisoned chalice of being a Labour defence spokesman on? David Chaytor, perhaps? Or Margaret Moran, maybe?
184. Another?
He’s already been through more than the space shuttle!
Most unfair, Richard Tyndall (a long way above). John Bercow was a Conservative MP, before he became Speaker.
Therefore he does have principles.
They are Conservative principles.
Self above all.
Mr Farage also has principles. I do not know if they are the same principles or different ones.
178 - We agree on the second part, the Poles will pass it.
Kaczynski won’t go into a Polish Presidential campaign without passing it.
As for the first part of your argument, the Conservatves leaving the EPP has no effect on anything , and I doubt the new group is stable at all in the long run.
It may serve as a home from home for individual disgruntled MPs.
Thats all.
185. wibbler
NPMP regards himself as an expert in military matters.
183 see 143.
185 It will be added to the Galactic Empire of the Snake Prince
16. The Polish presidential election isn’t until October 2010 and the Sejm elections don’t have to be held before 2011. Plenty of time.
187. So on that logic, Winston Churchill was a selfish man?
Googling Major Joyce I found this from Amanda Platell
“• A brief moment of honesty from one of Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth’s ministers, as former Army major Eric Joyce concedes that the attempt to claw back compensation from the most seriously injured troops was ‘a victory of bureaucracy over bravery’.
That’ll be the end of his career, then.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1205108/AMANDA-PLATELL-The-vile-legacy-vile-man.html#ixzz0Q4TO6LYx
Daily Mail auto-link is very good isn’t it, saves time.
It seems Joyce was quite the trougher. but still, it seems like quite a big story to me. I expect further off-the-record (or maybe even on-the-record) briefings telling all about unvarnished reasons why he resigned - and the bitter rows between Labour, the MoD, and Dannatt - to emerge soon…
In March 1998, senior officers described Major Joyce as “unemployable”, having lost the trust of his fellow officers - the recognised first step towards a discharge from the army. By December 1998, he was on a shortlist of approved Labour candidates for the Scottish Parliament to be established in 1999.
Eminently qualified.
Ainsworth has made some b!tchy comment referring to him as a ‘junior parliamentary aide’
LOl
169.”Apparently Eric Joyce is the ONLY serving Labour MP with military experience…”
Yep, and he was serving on the bottom rung under Ainsworth, terrifying isn’t it. This sounds like a lone resignation, but the reasons should be causing a mini earthquake around Westminster right now.
172.Maguire really is a ****.
1897 lol, that coming from the chief Tag Nut
Mr Cameron knows what he is doing, Trevorsden. The fewer MPs there are, the larger their constituency and the easier it is for the Conservatives to win. This is under FPTP, of course.
Unfortunately, Nick Clegg has fallen for this line, IIRC, and also wants to see a reduction in the number of MPs.
By the way, Joyce was commissioned into the Royal Army Educational Corps - hardly the front line. To suggest that he has “military experience” is gilding the lily just a smidge.
198 its a relief we have people like Maguire around Christina, they show us how its only ever wworthless PPS etc that resign - never the good ones, always the bad ones.
188. I don’t think we do agree that the Poles will pass it, though the odds are probably just about that they will in the end. I am tempted to think that the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of WWII in Europe isn’t the best time for big powers to bully Poland. (As an aside, all the comments about 1/9/39 being the outbreak of WWII are very Eurocentric; Japan and China had been fighting for over two years by that point).
The treaty went through the Polish parliament in April last year. If Kaczynski is as keen to ratify it as you suggest, why has he waited 17 months so far without authorising the instrument of ratification?
192 - Plenty of time for you to have a bet then!
I think its hilarious that the Tories new group is led by a Pro Lisbon politician.
Churchill made a very good career out of being a politician, before, during and after the Second World War. He knew what he was doing.
193. Churchill was extremely selfish politically up to the 1930s, and especially between his entering parliament in 1900 and the early ‘twenties - for most of which time he sat as a Liberal.
Er, is anyone else seeing this trailer for “The Love of Money?” I looks like a party political for Labour.
If this were a normal government the level of attrition would have condemned it to oblivion by now.
Ah, the Labour governments I knew all had more priciples, more courage, more self-respect than this bunch of spineless shysters.
They deserve what is heading there way.
207, details for those of us not seeing it, perchance?
203 He says its pointless until Ireland have voted.
I suspect theres some machinations over the human rights commission as your new allies want to pass some anti gay laws.
But they love the CAP too much to make too many waves.
And they don’t need to be bullied, in fact the logic of their position re Russia draws them further into the EU.
OT Is it just me or has the weather turned decidedly chilly?
Have just put the wood burner on for the first time in 6 months
209 - It goes on about the collapse of Lehmans causing all the economic havoc around the world, and has Brown and Darling as talking heads giving their view.
“201.By the way, Joyce was commissioned into the Royal Army Educational Corps - hardly the front line. To suggest that he has “military experience” is gilding the lily just a smidge.”
First it is the Royal Army Education Corps and Eric Joyce enlisted as a soldier in the Black Watch. His military credentials and experience are thus a tad more than you rudely allude to.
Second he is a Grade A Oxygen Thief and his attack ofconscience is no doubt exacerbated by one or two of his constituents, who have seen the slaughter of many of their brave young men and women giving him, as we in the Army say, the Gypsies Warning.
This sad loss of two soldiers from the Black Wath this week has merely added fuel to his realisation that his re-election would be tainted by his close association with Bob Ainsworth, who is the run away candidate for the Most Useless Defence Minister Ever award.
Eric Joyce was not accepted by the Black Watch on Commissioning from Sandhurst and has a well balanced view on the Officer Class he aspired to join. Well balanced, as in he has an enormous chip on both shoulders.
The fact that he is a serial trougher with a very interesting and colourful expense claims trail is bye the bye. But in the Army at least he was, and is, considered to be a complete tool.
210. That hasn’t stopped 23 other countries from ratifying. Nor is it an adequate excuse for him not authorising the depositing of the instrument of ratification between April last year (when the Polish parliament approved the treaty), and June, when the Irish voted no.
All his actions are consistant with someone who doesn’t want the treaty to come into force but wants someone else to kill it off. Cameron could give him what he wants if he (and Klaus) can give Cameron the time he needs. Or if the Irish do the job first.
See above:
Would it be a good idea to overturn the convention that Speakers are not challenged in their constituency by serious alternatives with mainstream support? How does he propose that Mr Bercow defend himself?
I would support normal party elections in the Speaker’s constituency. The Speaker should fight the election as a normal MP.
What difficulties are there in electing an MP who has campaigned for his party in the previous election becoming Speaker. After all that is what Bercow did - at least theoretically- as did every Speaker elected for the first time.
The Speaker should be chosen by the MPs in the current House, not by MPs of a previous parliament.
There is nothing magical about the Speaker, he is an MP given an important and historical role to manage and defend the house. Nothing in that excludes real elections at the start of every parliament.
Such initial election is more democratic and more effective than having someone expecting to not be challenged in their constituency as if they are some princeling from the Holy Roman Empire.
The Speaker is not elected for life but until he/she loses the confidence of the House. It is not a post which can or should be held come what may. How better to ensure the confidence of MPs in each parliament than letting them have a clean sheet for the post. If they want to elect the old Speaker and that MP wins the election, then that is fine too. But that confidence must be tested.
PS.
Can we have Betty back please. She was a real Speaker and would have won re-election in every parliament with ease.
213: Pat @ 20:23
“But in the Army at least he was, and is, considered to be a complete tool.”
If he was a ranker then wouldn’t he have had to get his CO’s recommendation to apply for the RCB (or whatever they call it these days). Then he would have had to pass selection and then pass Sandhurst. Pillocks do get through these last steps but I have never heard of an ex-ranker doing so who was useless.
Is there more you should be telling us for this to make sense?
216.
Yes he would have to get his CO’s recommendation and he would also have to pass RCB at Westbury. Eric Joyce did all of that, as have all of the ‘ex-rankers’ who attend RMA Sandhurst. The hour long interview by the CO or a Regimental, Brigade or Divisional Selection Board and the 3 day Selection Course at Westbury then transcends into (at the time Eric Joyce attended RMAS) a 6 month Standard Military Course (SMC) where every Officer Cadet is subjected to very close scrutiny and observation. This is the true test of an individuals character under intense pressure.
The Officer Cadets choice of Regiment or Corps is totally dependant upon their performance during that 6 months, their suitability to command and lead, and lastly, acceptance by the Regimental or Corps Representatives at RMAS. They decide, based upon the reports submitted by the Officer Cadets Company Commander and Platoon Commander, as to whether the Officer Cadet has the necessary qualities to join the Regiment or Corps.
At the end of his SMC, Eric Joyce was not selected for a Commission into the Regiment of his choice (The Black Watch).
I Hope that makes sense.
***** BETTING POST *****
A couple of days ago, OGH suggested a bet on PP’s market on Brown’s September approval rating being between 21%-25% at odds of 11/10.
No disrespect to him, but this is a narrow band and the odds are a little skinny. May I respectively suggest that better value is available by backing PP’s similar market, but based on his first approval rating to appear in the Sunday Times after the General Election (bet void should Brown not be PM at that time). To cover the 21%-30% band, i.e. twice as wide, they are offering odds of 11/8, i.e. 24% better odds. This looks good value to me, assuming Labour don’t make either a remarkable recovery or are sunk without trace come the GE. I’m on!
215.
That what happens in Canada. The Speaker is elected for a Parliament so stands as an ordinary party candidate at the next General election, then is re-elected Speaker or not as the case may be.
The only exception to this rule is Lucien Lameroux in the 1968 Election when he stood as the Speaker and was I think given a free run by the main parties.
Hahaha
I love all this cluedo stuff about Lisbon, and how it will affect sentiment one way or the other.
Whatever the Irish say on Oct 2nd will be so quickly forgotten by everyone as to make it a virtual non-event.
Plus don’t forget our own general election will be at least 7 months, maybe 8 months after the irish referendum.
As Tony Blair once said, the kaleidoscope of history is still turning, and there is no pattern as yet.
What will happen between now and May next year is completely unknowable, probably more so than at any other time in our history.
We are truly living in extraordinary times.
Two posts in the past 25 minutes - where is everyone tonight?
60.
1. Balls.
2. Simons.
3. Huhne/Darling/Opik.
6. Bercow - [would not celebrate - I am too tribal, even if he isn't].
Stark Honesty (for once) in Leinster House
August 22, 2009 @ 1:58 pm | by Deaglán de Breadun
“The first was - and this one took your humble scribe aback - that Lisbon is a dead duck, a goner, not a hope in hell. I protested that, surely the people would vote Yes out of sheer naked fear of making the economic situation even worse.
Nope, I was told by a highly-experienced (and pro-EU) Fianna Fáil backbencher. The farmers are voting against en bloc and don’t pay any attention to what their leaders are saying. (I should point out that the executive council of the Irish Farmers’ Association has voted unanimously to recommend a Yes to Lisbon.)
But surely the possibility of negative economic results will deter people from voting No a second time, I suggested? Another TD, from the Labour side, said he believed there was a “death-wish” among the electorate”
This is from the Irish Times. I don’t like saying it, but, I’m beginning think that the Lisbon Treaty is going down.
The German situation is legally complex, and inadequately covered in the media for that reason. However in my view it remains the biggest threat to Lisbon.
The article correctly states that the new German law designed to satisfy the Court conditions has been agreed, and is likely to be passed.
However it doesn’t necessarily mean this new German law will inevitably satisfy their Court and that this is the end of the matter.
The German oppositionists have already stated will take the new law (once passed) back to the Court on the grounds that it is inadequate.
If the German court then accepts that it has to be at least looked at to see whther it satisfies their initial judgement, then Lisbon cannot be ratified by the end of this year.
In which case there is enough justification for the Czechs to hold out until the British GE.
So it all boils down to whther the German Court accepts the inevitable re-petition by the oppositionists. I think they will.