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Is it worth a punt on Farage?

September 3rd, 2009

Ladbrokes have him at 4/1 to beat Bercow.

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481 comments to “Is it worth a punt on Farage?”

Yes
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 11:59
Yes.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 11:59
For sheer comedy value.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 11:59
Well done Farage, that should set the cat amongst the pigeons.

As for a punt, I wouldn’t touch it with a barge poll.
by SimonStClare September 3rd, 2009 at 11:59
We Know!
by weathercock September 3rd, 2009 at 12:00
Yes….6/1 in a two horse race? And this is Bercow, who’s indivually about a popular as a bucket of sick to most tories?

Gotta be worth a punt.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:00
6:Ok 4/1…still worth it.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:01
Hm - 4/1 strikes me as fair (this is an implied probability of 20%, no? Not a better so apologies of not). But I’d be looking for better odds than this before I punted - think I could find better odds for my theoretical money elsewhere.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 12:01
FPT

The French and Germans (and others) have taken the position that Gordon Brown type profligacy, i.e. huge stimuli and quantitative easing etc etc, are in fact counter-productive because they frighten the public in terms of future national debt and inevitable tax rises.

So people get scared about the next few years, and start hunkering down and paying off their own debt, etc etc

This means the economy still contracts even though you are pumping money in - money you haven’t got - the worst of all worlds.

Gordon Brown - “saviour of the world”, leading the “best placed economy”? It’s not even a bad and tasteless joke any more. He is a f*cking menace.

Sean Fear - yes, maybe the OECD mean a 0.25% quarterly decline, but have annualised it? That seems much more feasible. -1% is scary.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 12:01
I don’t think he will do that well to be honest. Its got the whiff of a political stunt about it after the guy just got re-elected back to Europe.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 12:02
How funny if Bercow gets voted out by Farrage!

I assume Bercow will be on his own in this seat? Now he’s Mr Speaker he is no longer stnading on a Conservative ticket, so hopefully Cameron will just leave him to get on with it. It would be like karma after the way Bercow has behaved towards his Tory collegues these last few years.
by GIN September 3rd, 2009 at 12:03
9. Sean the -1% is annualised so much of the last thread is based on a false premise.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:03
FPT
Ian Bailey
You are right about the OECD being a poor forecaster. They forecast based on past trends and in the past 2 years have been always - optimistic…

The forecast job losses from the motor industry do, however, fall in line with their forecast.. But motor is quite small…
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 12:04
Maybe worth a Punt because Bercow is a ****!

FPT - OECD Numbers:
It is annualised look here:

Page 16/17:

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/43/55/43607496.pdf

Still a bloody recession and recently i believe activity has detoriated again after stabilising in june/July So Runnymede was correct and i was not with reguard the figures.

I still think the “secondary Oilshock” will cause much economic damage though.
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 12:04
6.slackbladder, check out Bercow’s majority in 2005, and then add in the publicity for winning the Speaker’s contest.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 12:04
No.

Screaming Eagles.
Congratulations.

G4BR13L it is.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 12:04
Will parties like the English Democrats, Greens and even the BNP stand here too?
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:04
FPT. I think that Farage has a fair chance to get anti Bercow Tories to vote for him.

Nigel Farage MEP to challenge John Bercow at next General Election
The Telegraph’s Andrew Porter has the exclusive.

Quite an interesting one this one. Given that there won’t be an official Conservative candidate will Tories be able to vote for Mr Farage? Jonathan Isaby wouldn’t approve but I’d be tempted to vote UKIP if I lived in Buckingham.

Tim Montgomerie

by weathercock September 3rd, 2009 at 11:13 am
by weathercock September 3rd, 2009 at 12:05
So if, if if, Bercow was voted out, who would be the candidate the Labour opposition would most loath as Speaker? Frank Field?
by GIN September 3rd, 2009 at 12:05
“Punt”

So near, and yet so far……
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:05
BTW - without wanting to blow my own trumpet too hard, I thinnk I said this looked tasty for UKIP when Farage was looking like being made speaker. That was before Farage decided he’d be the candidate, mind; his candidacy at least doubles their chances.
Still - 20% probability, I’d say. What do others think?
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 12:05
15. I’m not sure the publicity was that helpful, myself.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:05
19 - No, sadly Labour wouldnt be allowed to have 4 speakers in a row.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:06
Bercow is though, I seem to recall, popular within his constituency party as he’s been a conscientious MP. Wider Tory distrust aside, his personal vote could be quite solid.

Still, it would be funny, given how he has behaved towards his collegues on the benches…..
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:06
There is no value in it whatsoever, Bercow has had a lot of media about him, and he will come off well.
by Robert Brown September 3rd, 2009 at 12:07
BBC are currently leading with this on their website:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/south_yorkshire/8233822.stm

Not the latest awful economic projections, not the NHS report the government was looking at. No, this…
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:07
Don’t know why we didn’t see this coming. A pretty good candidate for a safe conservative seat.

Bye bye Bercow!
by Millsy September 3rd, 2009 at 12:07
34. Will he get his constituency resourse’s deployed to help him though? I mean, he is no longer standing for the Conservatives is he? So will he still get help from his association and central office?
by GIN September 3rd, 2009 at 12:08
15: I know…18,000 is a lot. But this would be a special election. Bercow standing as a ‘non-political’ figure. And the choice is a straight UKIP vs Independent in political terms.

That frees people which would of course vote tory in any normal election. No labour or lib-dem to worry about.

Would be interesting at the very least.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:08
Interesting.

I’d have grabbed the 6/1 if I had been quick enough. Not so sure about 4s.

Bercow should win. He will have the support of the Tory Party and Farage is breaking a time-honored tradition of not opposing the Speaker.

Bercow’s achilles heel is his troughing. However, UKIP is not best placed to exploit that. They have, I believe, experienced one or two expenses issues themselves.

I reckon Farage should be no shorter than 7/2. No value, so no bet. Pity, but nice to see some more election betting sprouting up. Yesterday’s 7/4 with Hills on a GE TV debate was a corker. Today I got 6/4 with PP that there won’t be. Here’s to more such business.
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:09
There is an interesting statistic in last week’s Economist. Britain’s budget deficit is the HIGHEST IN THE WORLD.

Not just the highest in the EU, or the West, or Eurasia, or the G8, or f*cking NATO.

At -14.4% of GDP it is the highest in the entire world - or, at least, the highest in all the forty-odd countries the Economist lists. It is higher than America (supposedly in massive deficit). Higher than Spain (also meant to be in trouble). Higher than Japan or Italy.

It is higher than Russia, Turkey, Thailand and South Africa.

The UK’s deficit is larger than the deficits in Chile, South Africa, Pakistan, Colombia, India, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Argentina, Czech Republic, Indonesia and Egypt.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 12:10
30. The 6-1 was the price to grab, for sure. At 4s it’s less clear cut.

An interesting market would be on how many votes Farage gets. Around 10-12k the favourite?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
12 - But what about the prediction revised down to -4.7% for the year as a whole (from -4.3%) in comparison to Darlings -3.5%. That is one mighty black hole if the OECD are correct!
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
Congratulations Screaming Eagle.

Will you be moving to a bigger eyrie?
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
Hull City have signed ancient Knight of the Orange Order Sir Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink.

How does one get a name that awesome?
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
30 - It’s not so time honoured, the SNP stood against Michael Martin in 2001 and 2005.

(Though I do believe that was to do with their constituion requiring them to contest every Scottish seat. I maybe wrong, I’m sure Stuart will correct me if I am)
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
4/1 definitely worth a punt.
by Dame Hermione Grope-Worthy (Miss) September 3rd, 2009 at 12:11
18.How many anti Bercow Tories are you going to find in that seat?
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 12:12
Tim thanks, and 34, yes, I’m getting married next July and moving to Manchester or possibly somewhere in Cheshire.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:12
31 - Isnt Ireland’s higher? I would be surprised if not. In any case, it’s just the deficit. What is the position on debt?
by Neil September 3rd, 2009 at 12:12
Unlike most of you, I think Farage will win this one. The only thing Bercow has going for him is his massive majority. But it’s a massive Tory majority, and Bercow isn’t a Tory any more. He’s speaker. If you break down the constituency by group, it looks bad for him, despite his majority.

1. Tory activists. They don’t like Bercow, by all accounts. Now that he is not standing as a Tory, but as Speaker, they can feel free to vote against him. Farage/UKIP is a safe haven on a ballot paper that simply won’t have Conservative Party written on it anywhere.

2. Tory non-activists. Even they may have picked up the press that Bercow is closet Labour, and was Gordon’s stooge for Speaker. If they have, they are even more likely to vote UKIP than they would have been anyway.

3. Labour. Not many of these. The liberal Labourites will definitely vote Bercow. But the working class Labourites could well vote UKIP on an anti Europe as opposed to a party political basis.

4. Liberal. Not many of these. They will vote Bercow.

5. Non aligned “They’re all villains” fed up with politicians. Many of these won’t vote. But those that do won’t vote for the Speaker, especially after a campaign linking him to high expense claims. UKIP is a good home for them.

I wonder if Bercow will run an active campaign? I suspect he will - and he should - even though speakers usually don’t. If he doesn’t, he is in even worse trouble, because UKIP will throw everything at this constituency and Bercow will not have any party campaigning for him.

Taken all in all, a
by badman September 3rd, 2009 at 12:13
That’d be hilarious if he unseated Bercow!
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 12:14
Prime Minister Gordon Brown will attempt to fight back after a torrid summer with a Cabinet meeting at the Olympic Park.

Another array of cunning stunts from Brown, is the Cabinet Room being redecorated, what is the point of this peripetetic posturing?
by dr spyn September 3rd, 2009 at 12:16
41: But how would Bercow run an active campaign..?

‘I’m the speaker, and i would be a good speaker, and I won’t let anyone know my political views…’

Not a strong platform really.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:16
35. Vennegoor of Hesselink - ‘of’ means ‘and’ in Dutch. Apparently this is something like a double-barreled name in English, relating to the union of two families in the distant past.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:16
“Tory activists. They don’t like Bercow, by all accounts”

As I said in my post, I’m not sure that holds within his constituency.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
40. Ireland is not listed: but I remember reading it was about 12%? If so, still lower than the UK (and this is basket-case Ireland, the Celtic Dodo!).

But maybe it is higher. Either way we are in deep sh1t. The deficit matters, this is our national overdraft, right? We are the most overdrawn country in the entire world. At some point we will have to pay it off.

Painful. Especially if we get downgraded.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
Cynically, I might consider that this decision has been prompted by Tories who are still smarting after the election of the Speaker, not UKIP - for I don’t think they truly have any ability to initiate, they delight only in negativity. In this probable context one hopes that Fararge does not succeed and Bercow will receive support from all responsible and fair minded individuals.
by Aslaw September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
45. Oops sorry ‘of’ means ‘or’ in Dutch - typing too fast again.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
43: One might wonder if a cost vs benefit analysis has been done on this travelling road-show.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
39 - “Manchester or Cheshire”

Don’t go into an estate agents in Wilmslow and say that.
Bracketing Manchester with Cheshire is simply not done.

Even when the IRA bombed Wilmslow Railway Station, the Radio 4 Report went over “live to a spokesman for Greater Manchester Fire Brigade” the Officer managed to reply.

“actually its Cheshire Fire Brigade”
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 12:17
50 - Maybe they could hire some consultants to do a report for them
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 12:19
49 - interesting, thanks for that.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:20
Isn’t this supposed ‘convention’ about parties not standing against an incumbent Speaker is only observed by the Tories these days? IIRC Jack Weatherill faced Labour and Liberal opponents in Croydon in 1987.

So I’d be surprised if Bercow wasn’t also so challenged. If so, I imagine this would increase Farage’s prospects somewhat, though I don’t think he will actually win.
by John O September 3rd, 2009 at 12:20
44. I imagine Bercow would campaign on “opening up Parliament, cleaning up Parliament, bringing it back to the people” etc etc.

It’s what he’s saying already, but he would run it locally and as a candidate.

Bercow is a fighter, that we do know. He won’t take this for granted.
by badman September 3rd, 2009 at 12:20
For all the fans of David Starkey, especially after his tour de force on QT.

This afternoon I am interviewing David Starkey for the next issue of Total Politics. Is there a question you’re burning to ask him? Let me know in the comments and I will see what I can do.

http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/09/interviewing-david-starkey.html#links
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:21
45 Runnymede - “of” does not mean “and” in Dutch but “or”.
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 12:22
41.The majority that Bercow holds points to a popular Tory MP getting a good cross party of support in his constituency. Being Speaker will just make it easier for non Tories to vote for him too.
I think Farage and his crew are mistaken to think that the general disquiet expressed by Tories outside that seat will help them. If anything, it will go against him in that seat.

This is a UKIP stunt, and Farage only just got back in as an MEP a few months ago. Also a big mistake for others in the Conservative party to support him on the back of their dislike for Bercow. It just makes you realise why we were out of power for so long. He will be supported by the same bunch that probable cheered Patton losing his seat in 92′, despite helping the party win that historic 4th victory at the GE. Not an attractive side to the party to be honest.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 12:22
UK misses global upturn says OECD …

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8235763.stm
by LTL September 3rd, 2009 at 12:23
If anyone wants to know what the Buckingham Tory Association thinks about John Bercow, and how they intenr to vote re Farage, contact the following:

Phone: 01296 714 240
E-mail: agent@buckinghamcca.co.uk
Address:
34 Buckingham Road,
Winslow,
MK18 3DY

One may get evasions at this time, but could also get interesting answers.
by weathercock September 3rd, 2009 at 12:23
57. ‘C’ - I corrected myself already, thank you.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:24
So the odious Farage hasn’t got the guts to stand in a “normal” Conservative held seat. Can’t say I’m astonished.
by King Peladon of Peladon September 3rd, 2009 at 12:26
Will Gord now “do whatever it takes” and call a general election??

Prospects for the UK have worsened while other nations begin an earlier than expected recovery from recession, an economic body warned today.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said the UK economy would shrink by 4.7% this year - worse than its 4.3% forecast in June.

Its UK verdict is far below the 3.5% decline predicted by the Treasury, and contrasts with the improved prospects for other major nations compared with the OECD’s last round of forecasts.

The OECD said developments had been “mostly favourable” in recent months although headwinds such as high unemployment and house price falls meant the recovery was “likely to be modest for some time to come”.
by Herbert Proper Snr September 3rd, 2009 at 12:26
Great story about the Japanese PM’s wife and her UFO experience

Guido signs off with

“First Ladies are often “out there”. Nancy Reagan consulted astrologers, Cherie Blair had tantric, naked, in-shower, deep massages with Carole Caplin amongst other fruity new age mumbo jumbo practises. Bet Sarah Brown sometimes wishes she was kidnapped by aliens….”

http://order-order.com/2009/09/03/pms-wife-kidnapped-by-aliens-on-ufo-to-venus/
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:27
I’d like Timmy Mallett to stand against young prince Sion Simon. Then the greasy-haired acromegaly-having b@stard can find out whether he can ever be killed as he struts the parade ground like Pushkin, etc.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 12:27
56 - “Dr. Starkey, where did your barrels of awesomeness come from, and why are you such a legend?”

Too fawning?
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:28
64 - Is Norman Baker a lady?
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 12:28
66 - His reply would be interesting.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:29
26 - How are endless jibes at the BBC more illuminating and interesting than posts about Scotland?
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 12:30
The anti-Bercow sentiment is a Tory blog phenomenon. Given that the Tory blogs are populated by the fringe right-wing Europhobic 20% - look at the loony comments on ConservativeHome for the “mainstream” of web Conservatism - it’s no wonder they are bigging up Farage. Whatever problems Bercow may have, 1. he is Speaker and faces no mainstream competition and 2. Farage has problems in spades, as well as absolutely no connection to the constituency, and will galvanise Labour and Lib Dem voters.
by Edward Gaffney September 3rd, 2009 at 12:31
Hoorar - I’m one of the consituents and had until now felt I had been dis-enfranchised by having Bercow as speaker standing against no one from Labour or Lib Dems…. it meant I felt I was going to miss out personally and locally on the whole election night excitement (even though a mouldy cabbage would win here if it had Conservative under its name).

Farage is a decent leader as I’ve posted her before (pre-Euros) but as a pro-European Tory, this means I can now vote Blue knowing some sort of battle is going on locally and the main opponent is actually someone I fundamentally disagree with on Europe - which is an unexpected relief as a now keen Tory voter… it’s all relative!
by scrapheap September 3rd, 2009 at 12:31
70, good point regarding tactical voting.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 12:32
Wikipedia says Kilroy was supposed to contest this seat…

Is he still important in UKIP? I didn’t think they got on. Anyone know if this means something?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckingham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
by swingvoter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:32
I have met Bercow a few times and he isn’t an ogre/goblin/arse or any of the other myths. He likes his own voice but most MPs do.
by scrapheap September 3rd, 2009 at 12:33
Ironically If Farrage was to get into the UK parliament it may enable UKIP to displace the Pro-Euro LD’s!

Labour plus LD would then after a drubbing at the hands of the Tories be forced into reuniting. The new right would be in Government alternating between Tories and UKIP!

We could bring back Hanging, anti-leftist commisions into Socialst/Commie/LD/BBC/enemy within organisations. I could be the chair of the commision and guilty verdicts would mean “Trator” branding on the Bottom and all assets confiscated and putting in a peoples lottery! Tony Blairs houses could be given to the National Trust whilst Gordon Browns would be Bulldozed because he is a national disgrace.

Best of all would be the Torture of Gordon Brown!
Blow Tortches/Pliars/Food Mixers/Needles and saws!
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 12:33
69. The BBC is more significant to political discourse because unlike anything that happens in Scotland, it has the potential to influence which party takes power after the GE.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 12:34
Scrapheap

This post is simply to inform you that there is at least one other pro-European on this Site.
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:34
A couple of points on the economy that may or may not be a load of old rubbish:

1. The level of the dfeficit is not the issue, it is whether it can be paid back that is the most important thing. So, whether the UK has a higher percentage of GDP as debt than, say, Pakistan or Thailand is not the major point - it is whether we can support it that matters.

2. The reason we are taking longer to come out of recession than other countries is that we did not plunge as dramatically into recession as they did. So, for example, if Germany was not out of recession by now it would be a huge surprise as the Germans went much more sharply downhill than we did.

If I have got these points wrong - and not being an economist I mayt well have done - I would be grateful for explanations as to how and why.
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 12:35
47 - Sean, you are confusing “budget defecit” with “debt” when you say “We are the most overdrawn country in the entire world”

The budget deficit is how much money we’re having to borrow each month/year to make the balance sheet balance. We’re spending more than we have coming in. Apparently our % deficit is the highest in the world. Thats NOT the same as debt or the overdrawn analogy. The last reported number was that debt was 57% of GDP and rising. Thats still substantially less than France and Germany had BEFORE they started their own bailouts and fiscal stimuli. So their level of debt will be much higher now.

So yes, our level of debt will be increasing faster than anyone else. But we have a long way to go before we have more debt than anyone else - we need to borrow the same again to get anywhere near Greece, or double that for Japan. We’ll come out of this in far more debt than we had before. But still substantially less than both our major competitors and various smaller countries (Greece being a great example) who manage to stomach high debt without going bust, calling in the IMF or slashing public services.
by Ian Bailey September 3rd, 2009 at 12:36
I cannot see Farage beating Bercow, especially if neither the LibDems nor Labour oppose him. If Farage wants to do something sensible, accept that Britain is not going to leave the EU and then lead his party into an amalgamation with the Tory party on the promise we will fight hard to regain some of the powers already lost to Brussels.

I posted this at the end of the last thread:
324.273 C Campbell are you a relatively new recruit to the PB fold?

Sean T is not a Tory he is from Cornwall and spends most of the year in Thailand regailing us with stories of the young women he has conquered.

Sean T is rude to Scots of all political persuasions including dyed in the wode Tories like me. He loves Scotland but doesn’t like Scots much. He is just himself. He is also PB poster of the year because he entertains us all so much.

How about the following potential bets if shadsy fancies something new?

At the General Election
1) which seat will record the highest Lab-Con swing
2) which seat will record the highest Con-Lab swing
3) which seat will record the highest LibDem-Con swing
4) which seat will record the highest Con-LibDem swing
5) which seat will record the highest Lab-Other/Nationalist swing
6) which seat will record the highest Other/Nationalist-Con swing
7) which seat will record the highest Con-Other/Nationalist swing
which seat will record the highest Other/Nationalist-LibDem swing
9) which seat will record the highest LibDem-Other/Nationalist swing
10) which seat will see the incumbent/replacement from the same party lose the greatest 2005 majority and lose his/her seat ignoring boundary changes.
11) which English county/counties will return only candidates from one party (presumably Surrey will be favourite for that one).

That should be well worth betting on.

by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 12:36
70 Correct, Edward, which is why he’s a 7/2 shot at best.
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:36
77. This post is simply to inform you that there is at least one other pro-European on this Site.

Pro-European or Pro-European Union?
by ghanimah September 3rd, 2009 at 12:37
71/77 - I’m Pro-European too. Just anti-EU.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:37
70. I note this story has prompted the appearence of one or two new posters, all of whom are lining up to support Bercow. Can this be a coincidence?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:37
Having remained at 5/6 for several hours yesterday, I see Cameron’s odds of winning the TV debate(s) has now shortened sharply to 1/2.
Brown is 10/3 with Clegg at 7/2.

Don’t waste your money on Farage, I don’t expect him to get within 8,000 votes of Bercow.
by Peter from Putney September 3rd, 2009 at 12:37
76 - Really? So it does not matter what happens to Labour’s seats in Scotland at the GE.
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 12:38
77 There are at least three.

Even if this one despairs at times at what goes on sometimes in the EU and the way it conducts policy/democracy.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 12:38
Brown ‘willing to take pay cut’

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8235815.stm

What do we reckon he is worth? He currently rakes in just shy of £200k in salary alone.
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 12:39
The OECD figures are skewed by downward revisions to their earlier forecasts. If you want a proper interpretation just go see how the markets reacted to the news. The pound is rocketing upwards for the second consecutive day. This news is overwhelmingly positive for the British economy as we move towards Q4 2009 and into 2010.

My precisions: our economy will recover faster than our rivals next year, we will register stronger growth, and deliver good British jobs for British workers.
by Richie Rich September 3rd, 2009 at 12:40
77. PtP - I knew your posts had always been worth reading historically!
by scrapheap September 3rd, 2009 at 12:40
82 Both, Ghanimah.

Yes, I know the dog has fleas, but I don’t want it shot.
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:41
90 Ah, so I have TWO fans, Scrapheap! [The other is JackW, but he hardly counts. ]
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:42
84. Not referring to me I trust old boy?
by scrapheap September 3rd, 2009 at 12:42
88, wow, he heroically copies Cameron a few months/weeks late. Such leadership.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 12:43
The day the EU’s accounts are signed off by their auditors, is the day I’ll start saying nice things about the EU.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:43
88 - that’s big of him. I am hoping he’ll have no more than an MP’s salary within the next 9 months. Even better maybe I’ll see him down at the dole office.
by LTL September 3rd, 2009 at 12:43
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:

‘Legislative programme’

The smile is back, palpably back.

The statement was substantive: thirteen bills ranging from action on alcohol abuse to measures to protect wildlife.

[Alex Salmond] knows he cannot push through his Bill for a referendum on independence next year without support from other parties.

He knows that support is not presently forthcoming.

Labour, for example, has staggered through its “bring it on” phase - and now rejects a referendum on the professed grounds that it is an unwarranted distraction during economic crisis. Tories and LibDems ditto.

So, again, why the smile?

Because Mr Salmond calculates that, setting aside views on independence per se, the intrinsic notion of a plebiscite tends to be rather popular with the people due to be consulted.

He calculates, further, that those same people will tend to resent or, at least, question those who would seek to frustrate an exercise in popular democracy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2009/09/legislative_programme.html
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 12:43
92 - I’m a fan of yours too. I voted for you last year.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 12:44
77 - Make that four.
And I believe in a free market in labour.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 12:44
I live in the constituency and this news is fantastic. I really believe he has a very realistic chance of overturning Bercow’s majority. Farage will appeal across the board not just natural Conservative voters. The combination of Bercow’s reputation as a serial trougher will play in ths constituency especially with some serious resources injected from UKIP. This will launch UKIP in domestic politics and I fully expect that this will play well with all voters who are unhappy with the political triangulation surrounding the middle ground. Anyone but labour may find current resonance but people are not convinced that the Tories are significantly different. Nigel Farage is also a good performer whenever he gets TV time. He is viewed as a most respected and honest politician, a rare beast in these cynical times.
by John Henderson September 3rd, 2009 at 12:44
Sky reporting Gordo still won’t answer the call for a TV debate. I guess they shouted at him again as he was caught wandering about the Olympic Park
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 12:44
Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere on PB but this story from the Standard doesn’t look too helpful for Brown.

“Gordon Brown was threatened with a possible US Congress inquiry into the Lockerbie affair today amid growing American anger with Britain. Veteran Democrat senator Frank Lautenberg called for an investigation to “expose the truth” and “uncover whether justice took a back seat to commercial interests”. It raises the prospect of Anglo-US relations being undermined further by claims that commercial interests drove the release of Lockerbie bomber Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi.Mr Lautenberg, who represents New Jersey where many of the 270 victims lived, is the most heavyweight member of Barack Obama’s democrats to vent the fury felt by many Americans.He has written to former presidential candidate John Kerry, who chairs the Senate’s foreign affairs committee, and to senior Republicans. ”

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23739555-details/Threat+of+US+Congress+inquiry+into+Brown+and+Lockerbie/article.do
by dr spyn September 3rd, 2009 at 12:45
I’d imagine the anti-incumbent effect from Scamalot would give Farage a chance, especially given Bercow’s flipping and maximum expenses. Pretty huge majority though.

Then again maybe the UKIP campaign could play on the idea of Bercow as Labour stooge and how if he lost there’d need to be another speaker who was maybe more Cameron-friendly. That might swing some Tory votes.
by MrJones September 3rd, 2009 at 12:45
95. Agreed and the day the EU doesn’t slowly and systemically disenfranchise me is the day I’ll say nice things about it
by ghanimah September 3rd, 2009 at 12:45
82, 83. Indeed. Europe and its inhabitants are classified alongside my pet cats in my affections. I love them dearly, but I don’t want them making decision for me. Certainly not on issues involving fish anyway.
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 12:46
98 Good grief. And there was me thinking you were a sensible type, Eagle.
by Peter the Punter September 3rd, 2009 at 12:46
Unlike many of the Bercow-haters on this site, I HAVE met Bercow, and I still regard the possiblity that he could lose his seat as excellent news - it’s just a shame that it would let Farage in.

The other bit of bad news is that if he lost, Bercow would still qualify for the full Speaker’s pension - 50% of the Speaker’s salary - payable immediately, even though Bercow would only be 47. That would be worth getting on for £1.5 million, on top of his MP’s pension. Not bad for less than a year in office, especially for one SO thick AND lazy.
by Adam Smith September 3rd, 2009 at 12:47
102. If Farage is seriously going to challenge to actually win, rather than just getting a good vote total, it will have to be as a result of exploiting the expenses issue.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:48
‘20 years of Tory power, Labour warned’

One senior minister insisted: “The Tories would pour money into the marginal seats in London and the south east to return to office leaving other regions to rot. We cannot let that happen.”

The minister fears three or four Tory election wins in a row could follow.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/09/03/20-years-of-tory-power-labour-warned-115875-21644059/

Does anyone out there honestly believe that Scotland is going to hang around in the Union for 2 decades of Tory rule?

We may be a bit daft sometimes. But we are not that daft.
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 12:48
Not worth it at 4-1.

Ignore Bercow’s position amongst Tory activists which has been lower than dirt for years. What matters is what voters in Buckingham think.

Those voters returned him with an 18K majority over 57% of the vote last time. And Labour and the Lib Dems got 20% each last time - they might not like Bercow immensely but why bypass him to the right for Farage? Some will but I’d guess, conservatively, Bercow’s starting point is 70-75%. UKIP stood last time and got 3%.

Now a lot of UKIP resources will go into it and Farage, as UKIPers go, is a big hitter. But realistically this just isn’t going to happen for Nige.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 12:50
No. Surely to goodness if there is anybody who comes across as more smug than Bercow its Farage.

Have you seen the size of the Tory vote and more to the point the Labour one?
by TrevorsDen September 3rd, 2009 at 12:50
107 - Given that Farage boasts of having had over £2 Million in expenses that seems doubtful.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 12:51
108 - The most interesting line in that article is the final line. The Mirror seems to think that the debate is a done deal.
by antifrank September 3rd, 2009 at 12:52
[70] - The anti-Bercow sentiment is a Tory blog phenomenon…

Ye-es.. but there are other reasons why people might want to vote against the speaker.

Such constituents often feel disenfranchised from the political process as a whole, because their vote has no chance of influencing who forms the next government.

Even in ultra-safe seats there is the theoretical possibility of being able to convince a majority of voters in, say, Bootle to vote Conservative, or those in Henley to vote Labour. Farage will have some votes on the basis of a protest of being denied that.
by Timothy (likes zebras) September 3rd, 2009 at 12:53
What about the prospect of a Green candidature in Buckingham?

They might think they have a chance if they hoover up Labour and Lib Dem supporters, and Farage and Bercow split the centre-right vote. And, for all their faults, they have more credibility than UKIP in campaigning against troughing.
by Jack Peterson September 3rd, 2009 at 12:54
Oh dear Matt Le Tissier in betting scam

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1210882/Football-legend-Matthew-Le-Tissier-admits-10-000-Premier-League-betting-scam.html
by ghanimah September 3rd, 2009 at 12:54
79 Countries like Greece never had any public services to speak of. The UK can of course manage the debt, we simply have to up our repayments. Please explain in simple terms how you find £30 billion from current spending to divert to debt repayment.

of course it can be done, will have to be done, but it will be a painful adjustment and one not entirely necessary if we had not gone full tilt for saving the public sector at all costs.

Under a cameron government I expect real spending (i.e. not including debt repaymentsas spending) on PS to fall about 10%. That will be a big adjustment as it means no more child benefits and any other middle class support. it will though allow for some tax cuts.
by Cityunslicker September 3rd, 2009 at 12:55
Ian Bailey, you say my analogy between the budget deficit and an overdraft is wrong.

Then you say this: “The budget deficit is how much money we’re having to borrow each month/year to make the balance sheet balance”

Er, that sounds like an overdraft to me. What does it sound like to you? When things go well you don’t need an overdraft, you are in budget surplus, when things go badly, you need to borrow, go overdrawn, you are in deficit.

It’s not quantal astrophysics.

The debt, as I understand it, is the accumulated deficits of all the ages: how much we owe overall, our long term loans and mortgages, the whole kaboodle.

Of course these domestic analogies are not perfect, but they do illustrate. We are now the most overdrawn country in the world, that is not a good situation. How high can our overdraft go before banks think oo-er and stop lending to us? Or charge us extra interest for the risk?

Not much further, I’d say. Which means massive spending cuts and big tax rises to avoid that debacle. The deficit matters.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 12:56
88 ‘He did not say how much of a reduction he would accept, but added he was “not in this job for the money”.

A salary cut of 100% would be perfectly acceptable then Brown?
by EdP September 3rd, 2009 at 12:56
101 Perhaps the US should apply for Brown’s extradition. No need to show due cause, after all, thanks to Labour.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 12:56
115: noooo not Mattie Le God!!
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 12:57
88. Re. Brown’s worth - how much do convicts get paid, these days?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 12:58
“One senior minister insisted: “The Tories would pour money into the marginal seats in London and the south east to return to office leaving other regions to rot. We cannot let that happen.””

Well, Labour would insist on providing an example of how to plough money into your electorally favourable regions and move resources away from areas that weren’t.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 12:59
65- we should put candidates up against MP’s who should be evicted, I reckon that between us we would have a decent sized campaign team and the resources to fight a seat. Our slogans could be “your Sion Simon is a wally, Martin Day can’t be any worse!”
“Alan Duncan played you for fools, Tim only plays with himself!” and “Lembit Opik talks about the asteroid problem, the Morris Dancer will take action: giant space cannon now!”

77- I used to be pro EU, however after spending a few days working at the EU parliament and their conduct over the Constitution I am now pro European but secptical about the EU. I don’t support leaving it though.
by Bob September 3rd, 2009 at 13:00
108 - a Mirror article, and relating yet another story to Scots Independence for some reason. It’s enough to kill a person.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 13:00
On topic: I wouldn’t underestimate Farage. He’s a smart politician. With no official Conservative opponent, he could do well, especially if there is a general feeling that the Conservatives will win nationally anyway.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 13:01
Easterross, you are not quite right, I love Scotland and LIKE the Scots! I had a luvverly Scottish girlfriend for quite a while. And I’ve had many close Scottish friends, indeed still do have, etc.

It’s the Nits who irritate. Just them.

The rest of you are perfectly splendid.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:01
“Does anyone out there honestly believe that Scotland is going to hang around in the Union for 2 decades of Tory rule?”

Even now polls put Tories on 20%, that will increase as a Tory govt butters up Scotland. So its a pie in the sky hope by Nats. There is not and never will be a majority for independence.
Salmond will be 55 at the next election - 60 by the one after. Its Salmond who will not hang around.

As for the original labour ministers premise - Labour are even now favouring their own marginals with taxpayer largess and starving tory seats. So its pot calling kettle black. The regions contain marginals so even it the tories were as bad as labour the theory of tories favouring the south (a desperate labour ploy) does not hold water (tories will be too strong and comfortable in the south to worry anyway).
by TrevorsDen September 3rd, 2009 at 13:02
Farage doesn’t stand a chance here, although he may dent Bercow’s majority. UKIP do seem to be doing well in working class areas too now but it is a huge majority.

106 “The other bit of bad news is that if he lost, Bercow would still qualify for the full Speaker’s pension - 50% of the Speaker’s salary - payable immediately, even though Bercow would only be 47.”

Do you think it is a fix?
by Bob September 3rd, 2009 at 13:03
124 Sorry David, another Lockerbie related post, but yesterday someone posted that Susan Atkins who murdered Sharon Tate and now has terminal brain cancer was up for compassionate release and posed question on how the US could damn Scotland if California released Atkins.

Well they aren’t going to.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1210865/Scotland-note-Manson-Family-killer-Susan-Atkins-loses-18th-bid-release-DESPITE-deathbed.html
by Ted September 3rd, 2009 at 13:03
124. David

If you cannot see the link between 20 years of Tory rule and the likely dissolution of the Union, then you have very poor political antennae.
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 13:04
80-11) which English county/counties will return only candidates from one party (presumably Surrey will be favourite for that one).

Got me thinking.
Normally, if Tories as largest party (on 1974 counties), I’d say Surrey, Kent, East Sussex, Gloucestershire, H&W, IoW. Bucks would be here if it were not for Bercow.

With a big (83/87 style) win I’d add Northamptonshire,Suffolk, Warwickshire, Lincolnshire, Dorset, West Sussex, Hertfordshire.

Cliffhangers: Devon, Hampshire, Essex, Shropshire. Cumbria an interesting very wild card.

Most counties have a reasonably safe seat for the “wrong party” so number of one party counties is limited although I expect a few 5/6/7/8-1 scores!

Labour: Durham, Teesside a cliffhanger.

Other readings more than welcome
by Рeter2' September 3rd, 2009 at 13:05
79
Ian
“So yes, our level of debt will be increasing faster than anyone else. But we have a long way to go before we have more debt than anyone else - we need to borrow the same again to get anywhere near Greece, or double that for Japan.”

True: and we will do it by 2014.##.. And then if it continues we shall have a lot more debt as %of GDP…than either..

## Based on A Darling’s figures - which were published in October 2008, instantly wrong and understate borrowing by around £40B a year so by 2014 we shall be much worse than Greece.
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 13:06
127. I’m increasingly thinking Salmond will be quite happy to remain as king in his own domain but with Scotland remaining in the Union - a kind of Jordi Pujol style figure. Currently he is a popular figure north of the border but a divisive struggle over independence could change that. I suspect the forthcoming Tory government will be quite helpful in this regard, too.

I imagine there will be a nasty little spat between fundies and pragmatists within the SNP but the vast majority of the party will accept the latter position.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 13:07
There will always be people who vote against the Speaker. It’s why fringe candidates like to stand against the Speaker.

UKIP came third in the constituency in the County Council elections, and should pick up some support among disaffected Conservatives. But I don’t think that Bercow is unpopular enough in the constituency to come close to losing it.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 13:07
80 - Some guesses:

1. Medway
2. No Tory to Labour swings anywhere, but smallest swing in a head to head might be somewhere like Bromsgrove or Bracknell (if you include other fights, might be a bigger swing in Lab/LD seats where Cons are squeezed).
3. Totnes (might be a bigger swing in Iraq seats where Lib Dems came from nowhere and will return to nowhere).
4. Westmoreland (perhaps a late St Albans bid).
5-9. I’ll pass on the Nationalists.
10. Dunfermline and West Fife if you’re counting strictly from the 2005 base.
11. Surrey is the obvious one but I’ll be controversial and say the Lib Dems will cling on in Cornwall.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 13:08
130- or you could be letting your hopes cloud your judgement
by Bob September 3rd, 2009 at 13:08
126. SeanT

Has it never occurred to you that perhaps Brit-Nits (eg. you) are not exactly flavour of the month among large sections of the population?

British nationalism actually only appeals to a minority of people. Admittedly those people feel very strongly about it, but please do not assume that everybody else shares your nationalist feelings.
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 13:08
127. TrevorsDen - “Even now polls put Tories on 20%, that will increase as a Tory govt butters up Scotland. “

So, PM Cameron is going to “butter up Scotland” is he?!?

Tell us more! We are all ears.
by Stuart Dickson September 3rd, 2009 at 13:11
116-And that ridiculous commitment to keep the foreign aid budget.
by Рeter2' September 3rd, 2009 at 13:11
131: Somerset maybe…although Yeovil is the sticking point with that one. The Lib Dems have a pretty large majority there. Although the others (Taunton and Somerton/Frome) are very likely targets.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:11
Not sure if anyone has picked up on this, but coffeehouse seem to think there maybe a possibility that the Tories may run a candidate in Buckingham

“As yet, the Conservatives are not fielding a candidate, but that might change following Farage’s decision. Watch this space.”

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5304556/farage-to-stand-against-bercow.thtml
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:12
117 - “Then you say this: “The budget deficit is how much money we’re having to borrow each month/year to make the balance sheet balance”

Er, that sounds like an overdraft to me. What does it sound like to you? When things go well you don’t need an overdraft, you are in budget surplus, when things go badly, you need to borrow, go overdrawn, you are in deficit.”

No. A balance sheet is a snapshot of activity in that period. The value of the deficit that period is then added to previous deficits to form the actual amount we need to borrow - THAT is your overdraft analogy.

So having more to borrow each year than other countries is clearly bad. But when we started with much lower levels of debt - our overdraft - than they did, to claim our debt is highest in the world is plain wrong.

132 - You’re modelling our projections against static figures for other countries. Debt has gone through 57%. The forecast was to hit around 70% at the absolute extreme. Thats only a few % above the level being sustained by France and germany before the crash hit -0 and they’ve been spending hundreds of billions too. And its still less than the Americans, Italians, Greeks or Japanese.

However you cut it we’ll exit with lower debt than our biggest competitors.
by Ian Bailey September 3rd, 2009 at 13:12
142 - However you cut it we’ll exit with lower debt than our biggest competitors.

Only if you exclude PFI and pension liabilties.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:13
137. It hasn’t occurred to me because it isn’t true. The majority of the people in the UK are “British nationalists” - i.e. they favour the Union in some form, probably why all three major parties, and nearly all minor parties support it.

Indeed the majority of people in Scotland favour the Union - are “British nationalists” - as recent polls show, and as has been proved in elections time and again, when Unionists have always got more votes in SCOTLAND.

So I guess I might be UNpopular with that 1.3% of Britain that suffers from psychological scrofula, and is constantly scratching the scabs of its inadequacies, i.e. Scot Nits, but I can handle not being too popular with them.

Deal? Now please do not talk to me ever again.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:14
127
“… that will increase as a Tory government butters up Scotland…”
The likeliest outcome is that Scotland resents the largesse, then as the economic cycle turns once more (as it will) Scotland will condemn the parsimony.
by bono publico September 3rd, 2009 at 13:15
141 Is this what David H alluded to on FPT?

I didn’t see anyone follow him up on his teaser comment but after wading through an insult and Scot Nat borefest, I gave in at about 150 comments.
by Plato September 3rd, 2009 at 13:15
141 Dad-to-be Eagle (congrats, BTW)!:

That doesn’t sound plausible to me. It would fly in the face of convention, would look petty, and could easily backfire by splitting the non-UKIP vote.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 13:15
146 - Oh there were some great posts on the previous thread, especially post 272.

147 - Thanks.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:17
140. Dorset is a better bet than Somerset - David Laws will take a lot of shifting and Bath will be hard too as the boundary changes aren’t helpful. The Lib Dems seem strong in Dorset Mid & N Poole but a lot of that is classic swing territory.

Wiltshire must be an excellent bet as both Swindon seats will surely fall. Decent chance in Gloucestershire too, and I wouldn’t rule out Devon either though getting both Plymouth seats, Exeter and the three Lib Dem seats looks a big ask on paper.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 13:17
147 - Both Labour and the Alliance stood against Jack Weatherill in 1987. So it’s not that much of a convention…..
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:18
I see the BBC is showing its true New Labour colours with the stories it is leading on on its politics page.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/default.stm

(Cue SeanT responding to an issue he says he isn’t interested in)
by C Campbell September 3rd, 2009 at 13:18
I’m biased as I like Bercow, but anyway I can’t see it. His local association does seem to like him - he was reselected without difficulty even after copious press speculation that he was going to defect to Labour. The Tories won’t oppose him officially (looks too petty) so it’ll come down to UKIP+dissident Tories versus incumbency and all the main parties.

It’s an odd fact that few MPs are really disliked by most of their constituents unless they do something really outrageous. As with racialism and other sweeping prejudices, generalised hatred of all MPs is hard to sustain when you meet specific individuals who seem quite normal, and the most usual MP-constituent interaction is that the MP is helping with a problem. So I doubt if Buckingham is full of people burning to eject Bercow.
by Nick Palmer MP September 3rd, 2009 at 13:18
Ian Bailey: “So having more to borrow each year than other countries is clearly bad. But when we started with much lower levels of debt - our overdraft - than they did, to claim our debt is highest in the world is plain wrong”

I didn’t say that. I said our DEFICIT is highest in the world. Which it is. Is that a bit too complex to grasp? Sorry.

The analogy between deficit and overdraft is just an analogy, as I say. But I think it’s a good one; they are both an estimate of immediate borrowing requirements. Which is probably why the deficit used to be called “the public sector borrowing requirement”.

And anyway, however you cut it, no one disputes that we are likely to end this recession with the worst deficit in the world and the worst debt in peacetime history.

Well done Gordon.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:19
Mr Eagles

Congratulations!!!

I hope Eagle Junior is very quiet
by Plato September 3rd, 2009 at 13:20
154 - Thank you.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:20
122 - It’s what all governments do. The Tories basically wrote off non-Tory voting Britain between 1979 and 1997, and we are still paying the price now.
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 13:21
131

Interesting, but if the tories take ALL the seats in your first list alone they would be having a fantastic night.

They would need to win both Brighton seats (or is that W Sussez?), a lot of Labour seats in Kent, Worcester, Gloucester, and some Lib Dem seats in Surrey (I think?) and Herefordshire, plus hold Worcs West.

And I cannot see them sweeping Devon or Hampshire with all those pesky incumbent Liberals - no chance.
by Jon C September 3rd, 2009 at 13:22
149:Technically bath isn’t in Somerset,but a part of the BANES (Bath and North East Somerset) authority….but yes..i can’t see the tories shifting David Laws easily.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:22
91 - PtP - ‘the dog has fleas, but I don’t want to see it shot’.
Very good - but I think the problem is a little deeper than fleas. I’ve been trying to think of a more suitable analogy to reflect the depth of what I think is wrong with Europe.

Now, I’m no vet, but I believe flea can actually be cured quite easily. I think the ailment we’re looking for is something a little more terminal, and all-consuming. Some sort of malign toxoplasmosa, perhaps (http://www.cracked.com/article_15643_5-scientific-reasons-zombie-apocalypse-could-actually-happen.html), which has taken over the brain of the dog and is controlling it purely so it can breed.

Basically, the dog has been turned into a zombie by a mind-controlling virus. There is no known cure. Shooting it is regrettably the only option.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 13:23
131 - Baker in East Sussex and Webb in Gloucestershire will be almost impossible to winkle out. Dorset is less unlikely, although tricky even then. Kent and Surrey are good calls (let’s ignore things like IoW). Those further down your Tory list I can’t see happening (e.g. you haven’t had Grimsby in Lincs for a long while have you?).
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 13:23
Mark Oaten has got a new job transfussing his political talants for LD predictions with his hobbies!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_zpMKqKFHmEg/Sp7TxicEnxI/AAAAAAAADhI/dzHwdUg8v3U/s1600-h/Oaten+coffee+table+prediction.jpg
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 13:25
133 - The Pujol comparison is an interesting one. While he was in charge the Catalans always voted CiU (read SNP) in the Catalan elections, and PSC (read Labour) in Spanish elections (and these always attracted the higher turnout). To get CiU out of power in Catalonia post Pujol, the Socialists had to up their nationalist rhetoric and push for more devolved power. I wonder if something similar will happen in Scotland.
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 13:26
142
Ian
“132 - You’re modelling our projections against static figures for other countries. Debt has gone through 57%. The forecast was to hit around 70% at the absolute extreme.”

I suggest you think again..

The last forecasts said 79% by 2013 based on £175B borrowing in 2009.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8011321.stm

and that is likely to be substantially overrun as Darling forecast recovery NOW.

Sorry but if you are going to regurgitate Darling’s statistics, your arguments have as much credibility as he has..

He has overestimated growth and underestimated borrowing. Add £30billion a year for 5-6 years and you’ve got 100% of GDP..

Darling is useless as a COE as his numbers do not relate to what was happening when he made his forecasts… Repeating rubbish does not make it true: it proves your argument is wrong.
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 13:27
Has anyone ever seen Nigel Farage in the same room as the Russian President

http://therealbarackobama.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/medvedev-dmitry-and-vladimir-putin.jpg
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 13:28
153:

but if you have a 2 grand over draft, and you are £1800 overdrawn, and borrow nothing in the next year, but pay in nothing, you are still £1800 overdrawn, despite your deficit being zero that year.

Give up on this one, the pedants are right the overdraft analogy applies to the total debt, not the annual deficit.

Your point about our yawning debt still stands and is the important one however.
by Jon C September 3rd, 2009 at 13:29
163 GREAT SPOT!

I’d send that to PE!
by Plato September 3rd, 2009 at 13:29
162: to be fair to darling, brown and balls were pushing for even optimistic figures..
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:29
133, 161. I’ve always thought the future for the SNP was as civic nationalists, like the Catalans. As much independence as possible yet staying WITHIN the larger entity.

It’s because it makes political sense, you get to maximise leverage on the central government (with no responsibility for when they screw up), and you can stay popular at home even when things go wrong nationwide.

And of course you don’t have to win a referendum on independence, which I imagine would be pretty hard in Catalonia (though a lot easier than in Scotland).

The Basque Country is different. A greater history of violence, and much larger linguistic/cultural differences. They might just one day go independent.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:30
142. “Debt has gone through 57%. The forecast was to hit around 70% at the absolute extreme.”

The Treasury forecast is for a level of 76% by 2014 even with a very optimistic growth forecast. The Treasury is nearly always overly optimistic (about 7 out of the last 8 budgets).
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 13:30
166
Darling should have resigned.. As he did not it IS his fault. If he had resigned.. but he did not. So I am being fair: he as COE issued that crap.
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 13:31
158. Yes well I was thinking of the traditional county areas rather than artificial administrative ones. Which actually you need to do in these cases as some seats e.g Dorset mid and N Poole cross local authority boundaries.

159. In Dorset Knight is already a goner which only leaves one seat to take - it isn’t a gimme by any means but with the Lib Dem challenge faltering elsewhere there will be plenty of resources to throw at it.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 13:31
Moveon dot org goon bites off Obamacare opponent’s finger at rally:

http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-finger-bitten-rally,0,7135717.story
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 13:32
168; funny becuase thats the time Brown stopped following tory spending and budget plans.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:32
113: Although you are correct, historical evidence indicates that the people who are willing to vote out the Speaker consistently comprise a minority of his/her electorate. Given what we know about the strength of incumbency, especially among the kind of established MPs who are likely to be elected Speaker in any given Parliament, the strong resilience of support for Speakers isn’t too surprising. I have no love for the Conservatives (even the ones who are hated by their fellow Conservatives) but Buckingham is not good territory for UKIP at the best of times - even in the Europeans, Aylesbury Vale split its big two vote 19K-10K in favour of the Tories.
by Edward Gaffney September 3rd, 2009 at 13:32
Single party counties: The Isle of Wight. Dead cert.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 13:33
172. If only James Gordon Brown had been run over by a bus in 2001.
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 13:33
175, it would’ve enhanced the view history will have of him.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 13:34
O/T - And in other Farage-related news, he has waded in to the Lisbon 2 debate in Ireland. Bad news for all us backing ‘no’ I’m afraid.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0903/1224253745052.html
by Neil September 3rd, 2009 at 13:34
Also if we’re looking at traditional counties, I’ll add Westmorland and Rutland into the snigle county list.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 13:35
176. More effective as a traffic calming measure than as a Chancellor?
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 13:35
174: We have a winner!!

Although historically the IoW could be said to be part of Hampshire.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:36
Breaking News on Sky,

Brown: “Now is not the time for a discussion on a tv debate”
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:37
176. Bloody good Chancellor he was until his tragic death at the hands of a bendy-bus, but this Ed Balls chap has been a disaster!
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 13:38
181 - So shall we put you down for a No then Mr Brown?
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:38
181

by bono publico September 3rd, 2009 at 13:38
181. “This is a decision for the Scottish government…”
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 13:39
181 I wonder why? Mandy said Gordon would relish the opportunity
by Plato September 3rd, 2009 at 13:39
179: I don’t know…I think people would accelerate towards him, rather than slow down.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:39
185 “It all started in America…”
by Plato September 3rd, 2009 at 13:40
I wish we had a more stable system of subdivisions of the country, for the purposes of just this argument. Even using the traditional counties (as I prefer to do) there are huge numbers of questions: do you include Peterborough in Northamptonshire, Huntingdonshire or as an entity on its own? Do you split Yorkshire into 3 ridings; if so, do you do the same with Lincolnshire? Do you treat the Isle of Ely as a separate entity from Cambridgeshire, or split Suffolk and Sussex into easts and wests? Most confusing.
My answers would be Northamptonshire, yes, no, no and no but this is a fairly arbitrary position to take.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 13:40
181. Same old coward Brown
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 13:41
164. So the banks have given us a trillion pound (or whatever) overdraft facility. Why? Cause we are spending too much and not enough is coming in. My analogy holds, and it is just an analogy.

Here is someone using overdraft to mean deficit:

“The U.S. congressional budget office has recently forecast that the current federal budget deficit will exceed $ 1.2 trillion dollars, more than double the previous year’s near-record government overdraft.”

http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/79

And here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1207848/Governments-800bn-overdraft-worst-company-tax-revenues-plunge.html

Etc.

But it is just an analogy. Perhaps a better one is to say the economy is like a dockside hooker just after the Ark Royal landed after a six month tour of naval duty in Saudi.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:41
181 Oracle. The word equivocal seems to have been invented specifically for Brown.
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 13:41
Again Brown provides evidence that in laight of all political choices…he will chose the most unclear one.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:42
188 - “This is the right decision…”
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 13:43
I only thing I can think from Gordo response is maybe he is going to try and “issue the challenge” at the Labour Party Conference, as trailed by the likes of Brogan, after all.
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:43
181
Sorry, I thought that was a spoof.
Just looked on Politicshome and it’s for real.

BTW Politicshome is ****.
If their Kremlinologists don’t understand that ‘discussions about TV debates’ is Brownspeak for ‘It ain’t gonna happen’, I suggest they get new analysts.
by bono publico September 3rd, 2009 at 13:44
181
This decision confirms to the Brown Rule.

The Brown Rule states:
When Gordon Brown is given a number of political choices , he will always select those which will most damage his political reputation
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 13:44
167 - It may actually be harder in both Catalonia and the Basque Country than Scotland because both of those places have seen so much immigration from the rest of Spain.
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 13:45
195. He’ll look like an utter bell-end if he does.

Nailed on certainty then.
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 13:45
I think a lot of people are dismissing Farage far to quickly. Although it all depends on what his local association do if they endorse him he should be home and dry. If he has no support from the Conservative party then it will look a completely different picture.

How much is Bercow willing to spend on campaigning? You can take it for granted UKIP will throw resources at this. With no other large party standing(Unless the Greens pitch up - which seems unlikely) then it’s going to be wall to wall UKIP advertising.

Will Bercow get Conservative, Lib Dem and Labour activists campaigning for him? It’ll be interesting to see the reaction of Conservative voters if they get doorstepped with Labour for Bercow.

It’s interesting to see that some of the people who were shouting free money on Labour getting more seats than UKIP in the Euros are giving Farage no chance.

This should be seen as a marginal in my view.
by CJ-A September 3rd, 2009 at 13:45
“The Prime Minister said: “I’m happy to do debates all the time,”

http://page.politicshome.com/uk/brown_prepared_to_take_pay_cut_but_not_debate.html

Really, when was the last time Gordo did a debate? In fact took any questions from the public?
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:47
198: Whereas in Scotland it’s mostly people wanting to get out of the palce.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:47
201: Mass debate more like.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:48
141 Not aimed at you but at ConHome, I have never heard a more ludicrous suggestion. John Bercow may not be flavour of the month with some colleagues but he is Speaker who was an elected Tory MP. If we can tolerate Sir Edward Heath in the House of Commons for 30 years past his “sell-by date” (around October 1973) then Bercow is fine and as others have said I am sure he is fairly popular with his constituents to achieve an 18000 majority.
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 13:49
197. *cough*

I think you will find that is known as the Smithson-Thomas rule, after it was first propounded by me, on here.

Also you missed the middle bit; the full rule is:

When Gordon Brown is given a number of political choices, he will - after much dithering - always select the option which will most damage himself and his party.

It’s not always right, but it’s a decent rule of thumb.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:49
189 - What’s wrong with the Soke of Peterborough?
by Southam Observer September 3rd, 2009 at 13:49
201 - the last time he took questions from the public was that awful radio interview where he came close to nutting someone over the airwaves. The last time he did it face to face, without minders or the BBC picking easy ones… 1995? Maybe never…
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 13:49
[201] - when was the last time Gordo did a debate?

Is it not arguable that PMQs is analogous to a debate?
by Timothy (likes zebras) September 3rd, 2009 at 13:50
163 TSE

If you want something really scary try comparing Putin with the psychologist out of UFO
by Blue rog September 3rd, 2009 at 13:51
86 (Southam Observer) Really? So it does not matter what happens to Labour’s seats in Scotland at the GE.

That’s right. Labour is going to get so badly creamed that even if they won every seat in Scotland, they’d still lose.

This makes Scotland utterly irrelevant and completely incidental to the outcome of the next election.

What the Scotch tend to forget, with their wee parochial Scotch take on everything, is that the entire population of Scotland adds up to barely two-thirds of London. This is why everybody takes the p1ss out of the silly jumped-up little SNP pillocks on here. It’s because their region (they’re not a nation) is of no account and makes no worthwhile contribution - economically, demographically, or culturally - to the rest of the UK.

Well, it’s in part because of all that that Scotch nits are simply laughed at. It’s also because they are fat, lazy, workshy, Sovietised, lead short filthy lives, largely subsist on English-funded benefits, and die of eating deep fried Mars Bars.

There is simply something fundamentally absurd about Scotland, in just the same way that Nick Clegg is fundamentally absurd. It’s the squeaking for attention, I think.

When I think of Scotland, I always think of that joke about the mouse who mounts and sh@gs an elephant. As the mouse is hammering ineffectually away at the elephant’s yoni with its mouse-sized c0ck, a hornet lands on the elephant’s neck and stings it. “Ow!” trumpets the elephant. “Feel it, b1tch!” squeaks the mouse.

And that’s Scotland, that is (the mouse, obviously).
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 13:52
207 - Oh yes, how could I forget that R4 Q&A session.

Even the people who phoned up and weren’t hugely anti-Brown to start with, rather had a genuine concern about something, hung up hating his guts as they were told repeatedly that all their concerns couldn’t possibly be true, thus they were wrong, he was right, etc
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:52
195. “I only thing I can think from Gordo response is maybe he is going to try and “issue the challenge” at the Labour Party Conference, as trailed by the likes of Brogan, after all.”

He’ll look like a right berk if he does that.
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 13:52
206 SA. “What’s wrong with the Soke of Peterborough?”

It’s recent dalliance with shockingly poor MP’s !!
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 13:52
152 The reverse is probably true for Bercow. It’s those who know him best who like him least. Fortunately for him, most of his constituents don’t know him.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 13:53
Just another thought - before people think that Bercow will be greatly damaged by the expenses scandal, in part of his constituency we are within spitting distance of another MP who might have come off slightly worse and don’t see him as bad relatively…

Margaret Moran.
by scrapheap September 3rd, 2009 at 13:53
200 I don’t think that Bercow will need to *campaign* per se; all he needs to do is get his name on the Ballot Paper and issue a leaflet via the freepost, and invite the local press round for drinks. I remember when Betty Boothroyd stood as the Speaker, the local Tory Party Chairman was invited to chair her all-party “Campaign Team”, which consisted of a cross-section of local big-wigs to show that she had wide-ranging support.

Also, don’t forget that a (depressingly) large part of the electorate is quite deferential to bothh its MP and aother members of the Establishment. Bercow is a reasonably good, reasonably well-known local MP who has been entrusted by the HoC to chair its debates in a non-partisan way. Therefore he is simultaneously the Establishment candidate, the local MP and an Independent candidate.

Quite a winning combination, I think.
by Augustus Carp September 3rd, 2009 at 13:53
213. Ah yes, the Gorgon of the Soke.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 13:54
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/naked-brown-coaxed-off-trafalgar-square-plinth-200909032029/

“A NAKED, shivering Gordon Brown was finally coaxed off the Trafalgar Square plinth shortly after 8pm last night.

The prime minister exchanged pleasantries with a group of Belgian nuns The prime minster had spent four hours exposing himself to fascinated tourists at the end of what Downing Street aides described as a ‘particularly stressful day’.

The prime minister then stood motionless for four hours, occasionally breaking his silence to shout ‘I am Gordon, here me roar’ followed by a brief performance of the Morecambe and Wise ‘Bring me Sunshine’ dance.

Business secretary Peter Mandelson arrived at 7.45pm and gradually talked the prime minister down before covering him up with a blanket and guiding him gently into the back of a people carrier.

The Downing Street spokesman added: “We’ve got another nine months of this. I don’t know what we’re going to do.”
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
181 But the leaks (from Planet Mandelson?) have been that Gordon would end his Conference speech by saying something like “Our task before the General Election is to show Labour has the policies and the substance and plans for a sustained recovery, protecting our investment in continued improvement of public services and I challenge Cameron to debate these matters of substance with me in the time between now and the General Election”.

as Courageous Gordon now reconsidering this?
by Ted September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
212: I could imagine him doing a Mandleson…’I am a fighter, and not a quitter’

It would be horrible to watch, but I could imagine it.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
Gordon’s use of English is just so inspiring. This may sound sentimental, but I confess: it gives me great solace, in these dark and stormy times, when I hear our noble language used with such eloquence and dexterity.

It just… lifts the heart somehow. That is why he is such an impressive politician - he just knows how to touch you, how to reach into your heart with his words, how to caress your troubled soul like a skilful lover.

This, for instance, is him talking about the proposed TV debates:

“”We’ll deal with the election issue when we come to discuss an election but for the moment the most important thing is we have a public debate about the big issues,”

He added: “My aim is talking to the country about the issues that we have to deal with at the moment. There’ll come a time to talk about elections and we can talk about these things then.”
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
One party traditional Scottish counties ?!?
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
212 - Well we all know that he is very good at that already,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBXj5l6ShpA&
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
204. I like the comparison of Bercow with Heath there.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 13:55
216
“a (depressingly) large part of the electorate is quite deferential to bothh its MP and aother members of the Establishment”

Hmm maybe..

After the expenses scandal round here, the words used for our local MP are hardly deferential..

I think your view is untouched by recent events . Many people’s views have been touched by those events.
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 13:56
[210] - ..the entire population of Scotland adds up to barely two-thirds of London.

This isn’t the best analogy given (a) how London-centric the news media is, and (b) that London is in some sense a “world city”. Consequently, adding up to two-thirds of London actually measures Scotland as being potentially of quite high importance.
by Timothy (likes zebras) September 3rd, 2009 at 13:56
217 Sean F. “Ah yes, the Gorgon of the Soke.”

A harsh yet true verdict on your fellow Conservative - Stewart Jackson.
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 13:57
Brown is actually brilliant - a fictional political character couldn’t do better:

“Mr Brown said that he was always happy to debate the issues, but now was not the time for an election debate.

The Prime Minister said: “I’m happy to do debates all the time, but we are not at the point of the election.””
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 13:58
More pertinent questions are - how did UKIP do in Bucks in the EU elections, how many tory-ish voters will feel obliged to vote for someone who cannot by the parliamentary conventions support tory policies and how many of the putative tory voters see this as a chance to send a message to Cameron about the EU?

If there are no other main party candidates this could be interesting. And if Farage wins would it be the biggest swing of the night?

Meanwhile, just been out to vote in a council by-election. P1ss-poor turn-out so far according to the officials. Not surprising, there are only 2 candidates and there have been no mail-shots, no letter-box stuffing, no canvassing and no posters.
by b. September 3rd, 2009 at 14:00
220
That is perilously close to an incisive statement - very shaky ground for ‘Our Glorious (and Courageous ™) Leader.
by bono publico September 3rd, 2009 at 14:00
207 - well, as I said, it’s all fairly arbitrary; Peterborough has at various times in its history been considered part of Northants, a separate entity and part of Hunts. I choose to place it in Northants because a) it’s been in Northants for more of its history (though the earlier part), and b) I can’t be arsed with all the tiny not-quite-counties like this that the system throws up and compels the compiler of lists to include a myriad of footnotes.
I quite fancy, for example, walking up the biggest hill in each of the counties in Britain (see below). It would get you to a great variety of the country, get you to some places you’ve not been before and be less consistently at-the-far-end-of-the-country than doing all the munros. But I really can’t be bothered with walking up the highest hill in Peterborough. Nor, if it comes to that, visiting the highest point in the Isle of Ely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historic_counties_of_England_and_Wales_by_highest_point
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_counties_by_highest_point
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:00
[210,226] - A better analogy population-wise would be with “Yorkshire and Humber” which had a population just shy of 5 million at the time of the 2001 census, whereas Scotland has a population just over 5 million.

There isn’t so much discussion of Yorkshire politics on pb.com, but then I suppose there are very many fewer betting opportunities, so this can be justified…
by Timothy (likes zebras) September 3rd, 2009 at 14:01
225 You could well be right. But Farage will be monstered if he tries to campaign on the Expenses issue - his claims are far worse than Bercow’s, so I don’t think that will play well in Buckingham.
by Augustus Carp September 3rd, 2009 at 14:02
200 - There is zero prospect of the Conservative Party nationally or locally backing Farage. It is infinitely better to have an MP they don’t like squatting there than to open a bridgehead for UKIP into the Westminster Parliament. Ditto for the Lib Dems and Labour. It’s just fantasy land - Farage will do a lot but it won’t work.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 14:05
233. In principle that should be right - and yet we thought that prior to the recent elections too and yet UKIP did seem to pick up an anti-establishment protest vote re. expenses, despite their own disgraceful record on the subject.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 14:05
229: UKIP did about average in the Aylesbury Vale counting area in the 2009 European elections, relative to their performance in the South East.
Conservative 36.73%
UKIP 20.10%
LD 16.39%
Green 9.84%
Labour 5.82%
BNP 4.10%
by Edward Gaffney September 3rd, 2009 at 14:06
234. Individual conservatives will definitely back Farage, but not the constituency party formally of course.

I think the question that might be posed here is ‘who will back Bercow’?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 14:06
Sky’s political editor Adam Boulton said: “The problem with Mr Brown’s approach is that we are only at the most nine months away from the general election, so most people are beginning to make preparations.

“In previous years TV debates disappeared because they were only discussed at the beginning of the campaign, when inevitably they became a political football and people were too busy campaigning, so they fell by the wayside.

“I would advise Gordon Brown, if he’s serious about debating ‘all the time’, to give a firm indication sooner rather than later.”
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 14:07
may I congratulate my fellow yorkshireman screaming eagles.
by johnno September 3rd, 2009 at 14:07
238 - I take that response by Boulton is a family fortunes-esque nahhhh nahhhh, wrong answer, try again….
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 14:08
236. Thanks for that.
On those figures Farage has a better chance than I thought.
by b. September 3rd, 2009 at 14:08
Counties of Scotland from 1890 : Via Wiki.

Caithness
Sutherland
Ross and Cromarty
Inverness-shire
Nairnshire
County of Moray (also known as Elginshire until 1918)
Banffshire
Aberdeenshire
Kincardineshire
Angus (Forfarshire until 1928)
Perthshire
Argyll
County of Bute
Ayrshire
Renfrewshire
Dunbartonshire
Stirlingshire
Clackmannanshire
Kinross-shire
Fife
East Lothian (Haddingtonshire until 1921)
Midlothian (County of Edinburgh until 1890)
West Lothian (Linlithgowshire until 1924)
Lanarkshire
Peeblesshire
Selkirkshire
Berwickshire
Roxburghshire
Dumfriesshire
Kirkcudbrightshire
Wigtownshire
Zetland (Shetland)
Orkney

Martin Day will be thrilled that the Lib Dems top the list !!
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 14:08
143 - I include PFI and Pensions in my stats because I quote Eurostat who have always included them.

153 - You don’t seem to get this. Deficit is how much you need to borrow that year. I have a £200 hole so I borrow it. Are my borrowings - my overdraft - £200, or are they £200 plus however much I had already borrowed?

162 - I was quoting from an Economist article (haven’t got time to search for it) pointing out that the more hysterical comments about our debt were out of step with reality. As is your “lets add another 30%”. If we stay in recession for 10 years, destroy the city AND our banking investments have zero value then maybe. In the real world our GDP will increase sharply as we go back into growth, bringing with it a sharp increasae in tax revenue.

Lets say 100% is right. We won’t be the only country up there - America, Japan, Italy, and almost certainly the French and the Germans. How will we cope under that much debt? How do several of them now?
by Ian Bailey September 3rd, 2009 at 14:08
To be serious for a moment, I wonder how the crunch is affecting the charity sector? Government debt and unpopularity is pernicious, for charities, because it means people are less likely to give, in uncertain times.

I’ve got a mate who works as a press offer for ALSHOES, the Association of Lying Stupid Horrible Devious Ugly Scheming One-eyed Scottish Wankers, and they’re having real problems. He says that Gordon Brown is dragging his members’ reputation through the mud.

A lot of them are apparently quite decent, just thieving Caledonian pirates with an eye patch, or oat-eating monocular burglars from Dundee, but because Gordon Brown is such a total and unutterable cowardly WANKER all the other mendacious one-eyed Scottish bastards are getting real stick.

Something to think about.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 14:10
235 - but the number of Conservative-voters who are in some way attached to - or even loyal to - the party is actually pretty low. The Conservative Party as a whole may not want to see UKIP succeed; Conservative voters will be much more sanguine about the prospect.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:11
238 It looks as if Brown is doing another fine job of painting himself into yet another corner. How does he manage it? Is nobody advising him?
by EdP September 3rd, 2009 at 14:11
243 Jack W, did they really use the “-shire” suffix in Scotland? And if so, when did it drop out of use?
by Augustus Carp September 3rd, 2009 at 14:11
58. Christina, you are bang on the money with that post. I’m amazed at how many posters on here think Farage has more than a snowball’s chance in hell. Total UKIP stunt. Bercow will increase his majority. Not value for money at just about any price.
by Monty September 3rd, 2009 at 14:12
245: Maybe they should have an ad campaign:

A LSHDUSOSW is for life, not just for christmas (unless you vote him out).
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 14:12
243. “Lets say 100% is right. We won’t be the only country up there - America, Japan, Italy, and almost certainly the French and the Germans. How will we cope under that much debt? How do several of them now?”

It’s hardly a ringing endorsement of Labour and Brown if such a thing happens. We could have been a low tax, low debt country, now we are heading quickly towards being a high tax, high debt country. I don’t remember that bit from the 1997, 2001 or 2005 manifestos.

Labour had their go, they blew it, they can now f*ck off.
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 14:13
246. As the euros show….
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 14:13
244. On reflection, I think our whole argument is a semantic confusion between “overdraft” and “overdrawn”. When I say the deficit is our overdraft I mean we are “overdrawn” for that fiscal year, and so we are.

End. And now I am off to the bars of the Mango. Kapples!
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 14:13
Farage to beat Bercow !! Huge

About as much chance as Martin Day has of becoming Lib Dem MP for Sheffield Hallam !!
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 14:14
243
People cope under 100% of DGP debt as they are not adding to it like no tomorrow. It’s stable. The US is not stable…

At the current arte of deficit c £200Billion a year, Debt will double every 6 years (compound interest).
So in six years’ time we will need to stop debt growing… be in balance.

As the UK has not run a surplus for nearly a decade.

“Our GDP will increase sharply”.. with banks being forced to curtail lending? . And tax revenues lag economic growth as unemployment always continues growing after the economy starts growing…

So where are your 15% cuts in spending to come to balance the budget by 2016?
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 14:15
247 - Clearly whoever is, is making a right Balls up

I can only imagine what Ali Campbell’s reactions to Gordo decisions have been in the past few weeks. Can you really imagine Blair and Campbell managing to make such a cock-up of this?
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 14:17
232, 226, 210 - You know what I mean, though, Timothy. Even on the most generous yardstick of comparison available - simple population headcount - Scotland is trivial. When you look at what those heads actually contribute to the UK - approximately s0d all - Scotland is abjectly trivial.

Scotland is just a small, sparsely populated, socially and economically backward, poorly fed, politically splintered and corrupt third-world backwater, inhabited only by people who’ve no choice because they don’t have the connections to emigrate. It’s in substance an African country. By a fluke of geography, it has ended up contiguous to Europe.

It really speaks volumes that the summit of the SNP’s ambitions for Scotland is to complete the already-striking resemblance to a failed African state. They hope to turn it into an oil-funded leftist kleptocracy, along post-war African lines. If they succeed, and who cares frankly, then in 50 years’ time the place will be even worse than it is now, except that the top 1,000 party political crooks will be driving Porsches.

Believe me, I know what Scotland’s like - I’ve been to Chad.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 14:18
242 Jack they should ahve left them as such too. In 1975 they buggered up the entire set-up and created monstrosities which no-one other than career public sectorites could or would identify with. I have to say that we locals still refuse to call our county “Ross and Cromarty”. We are Ross-shire. Cromarty is where all the arty lefties live in their politically correct claret drinking social sets (though many are very nice people just a bit strange)
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 14:18
237 Quite, runnymede. It is hard to see how Bercow can actively campaign, and also it’s hard to see party activists putting in lots of effort on his behalf. UKIP, on the other hand, will throw everything into this; it’s their only real chance of getting a seat, so they’ll have plenty of resources and manpower.

I also think that Farage is quite smart enough to campaign on the expenses issue despite UKIP’s own problems on this score. I can envisage Farage campaigning as ‘Feisty underdog and defender of British freedoms’ versus ‘Establishment tainted by expenses scandal’, with a sub-text of ‘Eurosceptic/Eurocautious Conservatives can safely vote for me without disloyalty, and I’ll help keep Cameron honest’.

Personally, from a political point of view, I hope he loses, but from a betting point of view I think he might do very well. Whether it will be well enough to win is hard to say.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 14:19
257. lol! You forgot to mention the horrible weather. At least its sunny in Chad.

Only joking. I *heart* Scotland. I just *barfing motion* the Nits.

And that really is it. Laytuh.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 14:20
254. Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm

Thanks for the thought!

I am really pissed off: I have been put on the New Deal.

NO NO NO!!!

Having to spend time with theives, drug addicts and stupid cnuts. No thank you.

If i still had a car i would rather attatch a hose pipe to the exhaust and run it in through the window and sit in the Cabin!
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 14:20
238. “who will back Bercow?” - Almost certainly the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem organisations and the local establishment, as suggested above in the comment on West Bromwich West.

I think some here are overestimating the amount of name recognition or star quality that Nigel Farage has among the electorate as a whole, especially compared to his four-term incumbent opponent. Perhaps I am underestimating it, but I don’t think he would be as recognised as any of the Lab/Con/LD leaders or even Nick Griffin. Being leader of UKIP did Roger Knapman a fat lot of use down in Totnes in 2005.
by Edward Gaffney September 3rd, 2009 at 14:21
259. Richard - and the nightmare scenario for Bercow is that Labour and the Lib Dems offer him their support….
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 14:21
249 - Yes, -shire was used in Scotland. Invernessshire is as far as I know the only place name in the country with three consecutive letter ss (although boringly, it’s usually hyphenated, which seems hardly satisfactory). Many ’shires’ are still commonly used (e.g. Aberdeenshire’).
‘Shire’, by the way, is an Angl-Saxon term and refers to the unit of land presided over by a ’shire-reeve’ or sherrif. When the Normans invaded, they brough Counts with them, and so the unit became the ‘county’. County Durham never had a sherriff, being presided over by the Prince Bishops, which is why it is known as County Durham and not Durhamshire.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:22
248 Augustus the use of “shire” has not stopped in Scotland. Most counties still have shire at the end.
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 14:23
Farage won’t beat Bercow, more’s the pity. Bercow is well-liked by his constituents and has a massive majority. 6/1 sounds like a fair price to me.

I would prefer to get Farage in there; he would definitely spice politics up. But he has picked his choice of seat badly.
by wibbler September 3rd, 2009 at 14:23
248 Augustus. The regionalisation of Scotland from the 1973 act did much to blur the meaning of shires and counties. Having said that we still have shire wide Westmister constituencies and many still refer to various wonderful oddities like the Mearns and the Stewartry of Kirkcudbright !!
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 14:23
More leadership from Brown:

“Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he would be willing to take a salary cut if MPs agreed this was the right thing to do during the recession.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8235815.stm

Why doesn’t he just do it, announce it and challenge MP’s to follow his lead?
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 14:25
259 - of course - Rossshire as well (come on, lose the hyphen! Triple letters are fun).
At what point and in what circumstances did Ross and Cromarty merge? I’ve never seen a map on which they’ve been depicted separately.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:26
267 Jack Lunch stopped you from sharing you views on the post election situation. It seemed like you had a bleak view of the future. I would like to hear more details if you have some time. (or point me to where you posted it)
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 14:26
259.JackW, reading about the Great Moray Flood right now, a beautifully crafted book and obviously a labour of love. Fascinating to see the old counties and their names laid out in one of the maps.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 14:27
267. Many still refer to wonderful oddities like the deep fried Mars Bar, too.

It doesn’t make Scotland quaint, cute or loveable though. In both cases, it makes the place look like it’s stranded in the past.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 14:27
Oops, meant 267
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 14:28
270 - just answered my own question on Wiki - fascinating. What a strange county Cromarty was.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromartyshire
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:28
254 - “About as much chance as Martin Day has of becoming Lib Dem MP for Sheffield Hallam !!”

Oh…but just think of the fun he would have with the Focus leaflets…

258 - Never thought of Cromarty like that…but you have a point!
by Stephen B September 3rd, 2009 at 14:29
275. I could never be Pious so would never even get past the Selection meeting!

Besides Jeremy Clarkson is going to win in Sheffield Hallam!
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 14:30
262 - To be fair, Farage has more star quality than Knapman. But a shade less than, say, an aubergine.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 14:31
[257] - ..inhabited only by people who’ve no choice because they don’t have the connections to emigrate.

And yet I have three friends who have immigrated to Scotland from variously Germany, Australia and England. And I thought it was generally agreed that Edinburgh was very much like London, only smaller and nicer.

The Scots can do what they like of course, but I’d rather they stayed in the family.
by Timothy (likes zebras) September 3rd, 2009 at 14:32
We are going to be losing a considerable amount of good, indifferent or bad MP’s at the next GE. Cannot remember the exact figure, but its one hell of a lot of experienced MP’s to lose in one go, and at such a dangerous time for the UK.
The Martin Bell campaign worked and garnered a lot of publicity for a variety of reasons, but it was one of a kind. Now we have what is turning into a ‘reality’ type celebrity bun fight developing in some seats. And Farage is in danger of getting caught up in it, so it could backfire on UKIP right now. It doesn’t help that he waited until he had been re-elected to the EU Parliament before taking this decision.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 14:34
278

There’s nothing wrong with the Scots. Most of them work hard at dying early.
by madasafish September 3rd, 2009 at 14:35
280 - Madasafish - Heres some real figures on MRSA to save you making up lots as you did on the previous thread

http://tiny.cc/vfKJe
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 14:38
279. ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 2:34 pm

Frankly i dont rate a lot of the MPs going and could do a better job myself. From day one as well. So Indeed, could many of the people who could replace them in the election.

The problem with this country is they are so risk averse that even if it means losing they will not change. Employers and folk generally are to stuffy about what makes a talented person IMO. We waste talent in this country hand over fist imo.
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 14:38
Does Brown still start PMQ’s by reading the list of dead soldiers?
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 14:39
283
Can’t remember. It’s been so long since he turned up…
by bono publico September 3rd, 2009 at 14:40
283. Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm

No, i think they stopped it when the death toll got to high every week.

Nevermind he wont have to do it ither way ever again!
Indeed Brown is never going to go to the despatch Box as PM again!
by Martin Day September 3rd, 2009 at 14:41
285 Sounds like Martin is offering people a wager.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 14:42
278 - “And I thought it was generally agreed that Edinburgh was very much like London, only smaller and nicer”

I must have missed the AGM at which that motion was passed!

Edinburgh is a fine place but not a genuinely world city like London. It may well be a much nicer place to live but I don’t think the two stand close comparison.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 14:43
269 Cookie the history of “Ross and Cromarty” is mired in town hall skullduggery.

The ancient county of Rossshire with its county town of Tain (the oldest Royal burgh in Scotland, older even than Edinburgh and Glasgow having achieved its royal charter in 1066) sat uncomfortably with its neighbour the county of Cromarty.

The county of Cromarty was in fact 4 separate parcels of land, the area on the Black Isle incorporating the town of Cromarty and its parishes, the area of Easter Ross around Kildary where the Earls of Cromartie had Tarbat Estate and their “country seat” of Tarbat House, the area of Mid Ross to the west of Dingwall around Strathpeffer where the Earls of Cromartie have their principal seat, Castle Leod and a vast swathe of land in Wester Ross and south-west Sutherland where the Earls of Seaforth (originally the principal Mackenzie family) had their major estates from Kintail up towards Lochinver. In the mid1800s they amalgamated the two counties to form Ross and Cromarty moving the county seat to Dingwall the old Viking capital of the north of Scotland and birthplace of Macbeth.

Other counties also had detached parcels. For example a bit of the Black Isle around Culbokie was part of Nairnshire as it formed part of the estates of the Forbes of Culloden family and a bit of the Nairnshire parish of Ardclach was marooned in Morayshire in the neighbouring parish of Edinkillie.

Jack W do you reside in Scotlandshire?
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 14:45
270 Jonathan. I recall and apologies for not responding.

For want of sounding like Private Frazier in ‘Dads Army’ - “Doomed, doomed, d’yer hear what I say man …. Doomed !!!”

I am especially gloomy over the short and medium term economic prospects. The shortfalls in the deficit and the vast PSBR, the huge rise in unemployment are the stuff of nightmares.

Within three years I expect the claimant count to pass 4 million. VAT to rise to 20% and a freeze on public spending on health and education and cuts to all other services. Trident upgrade cancelled and no real change to inheritance law. The £ to come under sustained pressure with the IMF and the City recommending joining the Euro.

That’s just for starters !!
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 14:49
Cookie - “What a strange county Cromarty was.”

As is describing Ullapool as being in Wester Ross. It was actually part of Wester Cromarty.

There were also other counties with enclaves:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counties_of_Scotland#Counties_until_1890
by C Campbell September 3rd, 2009 at 14:51
289 Thanks, “Just for starters” please go on! Meanwhile, I’m heading off behind the sofa.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 14:51
290 C Campbell I did indeed indicate that was part of Cromartyshire but people think of Ullapool as being in Wester Ross.

Just think if they had left Lewis in Ross-shire and the other islands from Skye up to Harris in Inverness-shire, we would never have had a “Western Isles” constituency or cash for peerages and we would have 1 less SNP MP
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 14:54
Brown is such a weasel “willing to take a pay cut if MP’s agreed…. Jesus wept.. That translated means “I dont want to take a pay cut but will if forced into it…”
by Maggie Thatcher Fan September 3rd, 2009 at 14:56
289 - Fascinating! And all sounds a bit feudal up there in the far north - Cromartyshire being essentially those bits of land that belonged to the Earls of Cromartie.

There’ve been exclaves south of the border, too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_county_exclaves_in_England_and_Wales_1844_-_1974
It’s a commonly held misconception that prior to 1974 the boundaries of our counties had been unchanged since the dawn of time, but there have been countless rationalisations over the years. Just none quite so dramatic as 1974.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 14:56
290. There were exclaves in English counties too. The situation was particularly odd around the borders of Oxfordshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 14:57
Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian @ 76, 211, 257 and 272 - “If they [the SNP] succeed, and who cares frankly”

You do obviously. You’ve done four posts and written over 500 words on them already.

Your actions betray your thoughts.
by C Campbell September 3rd, 2009 at 14:59
Following a backlash, Obama is reconsidering his agenda for next week’s speech to schoolchildren in the classroom. Among the items being reviewed are White House-inspired post-speech assignments for the kiddies that included topics such as “how to help the president” and what “the president wants us to do.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/03/white-house-withdraws-students-help-obama/
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 14:59
271 Christina. Excellent. Talking of book labours of love, a few months back I purchased a copy of :

“Time in Rutland” - A History and Gazetter of the Bells, Scratch Dials, Sundials and Clocks of Rutland.

At 400 pages it’s an absolute tour de force of local history !!

288 Easter-ross-shire !!

“Jack W do you reside in Scotlandshire?”

Only about 8-12 weeks of the year.
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 15:01
145. We see both your sides, crawling to Easterross , because he is a Tory and unionist and writes nice things about you , abusing Stuart because he is not as nice to you and has a differing opinion, what a sad individual you are. You cannot take criticism but will fawn if anybody feeds your ego.
Why do you not take your own advice and go forth and multiply and give us all peace from your rantings.
by malcolmG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:01
293: It is a bit ‘if you jump off that cliff, I will too’. The probability of MP’s voting themsevles a paycut=zero.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 15:01
289 Jack W

I’m forced to agree with your assessment

If we did come under severe pressure about joining the Euro we could always pull out completely and save a few billion there
by Blue rog September 3rd, 2009 at 15:02
299. Malcom how do you stand on personalised number plates?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 15:03
299 - with regard to that book, Jack - are you a bell-ringer by any chance? Or just someone with a sympathy for niche causes?
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 15:04
211. Sean’s twin brother appears on the scene.
by malcolmG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:08
OT Fisichella to drive for Ferrari for rest of season.
by Slackbladder September 3rd, 2009 at 15:08
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2009/sep/03/obama-brown-dour-dreary
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 15:08
303 Cookie. There’s nothing camp-anology about moi !!

However I have a small collection of late 17th and 18th century clocks and watches.
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 15:10
305, good move for Fisi. Played a blinder at Spa, maybe he’ll find the car a step down
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:10
248. Augustus Carp, Shires have not dropped out of use , still in use today.
by malcolmG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:12
308 - ah - a (an?) horologist! Even more comic opportunities
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 15:14
Jack are you to be in Scotland over the next few months as it would be wonderful to meet up and exchange thoughts on all things genealogical. I have just purchased some wonderful books formerly in the library of the great Donald Whyte whom sadly now resides in a residential home. If you are, email me at msf10@hotmail.com so we can arrange a meeting without boring our fellow PBers
by Easterross September 3rd, 2009 at 15:14
311. I’m sure one of Jack’s authors can make it.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 15:17
306. Mind you, Obama has hardly lived up to the hype. Better than Bush, but that ain’t saying much.
by glw September 3rd, 2009 at 15:18
302. Runnynose , With your feet I would imagine, pretty dire that you are having to stoop as low as having to use TIM’s lines.
by malcolmG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:19
296. It takes more muscles to frown than to smile, C Campbell, but it’s worth the extra effort.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 15:22
310/311 Cookie/Easterross. Both trying to clock me !!

Sad news about Donald Whyte. Thank you for the kind invitation. I’ll probably not return until November at the earliest and I fear an exclusive meeting would lead to much distress, dismay and even worse uproar from the denizens of PB. Witan would probably retire to the funny farm !!

Accordingly and with much regret I am forced to demur.
by Jack W September 3rd, 2009 at 15:25
Easterross - “269 Cookie the history of “Ross and Cromarty” is mired in town hall skullduggery.”

History? That sounds like a front page in the Ropss-shire Journal.
by C Campbell September 3rd, 2009 at 15:25
313. To be fair to Obama, no-one could have lived up to the ridiculous hype he generated.

He is looking more like Carter than Clinton at this point, however…
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 15:25
315. Growing old is unavoidable; growing up is optional.
by C Campbell September 3rd, 2009 at 15:26
319, that’s not true. People can die before they grow old.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:29
More glorious work from Kevin Maguire. I do love the slight concession at the end….

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/columnists/maguire/2009/09/02/david-cameron-is-playing-the-lying-game-just-like-dean-richards-115875-21640984/
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 15:31
320- Or they can achieve true immortality by being fired from a space cannon.
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 15:31
@ 297

– “how to help the president” and what “the president wants us to do.”

Yes. I see that the President is fulfilling his promises.

Obama will- — as he should — transform the USA into a vast kindergarden.

He’s a Big Daddy also. Alaboy.
by Big Daddy September 3rd, 2009 at 15:32
“He is looking more like Carter than Clinton at this point, however”

Although, one could say he is looking like early term Clinton when he was brought low by grappling with healthcare…..
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 15:33
318 There was an article yesterday on Comment is Free about how disillusioned American left wingers have become with him, which is pretty stupid on the part of American left wingers. Given how small the American left is (bar some big cities) any President who tried to implement their agenda would be destroyed.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 15:33
321. The Mirror, the only online ‘major’ paper that still doesn’t allow reader’s comments (as far as I know). How revealing!
by ghanimah September 3rd, 2009 at 15:34
324. Fair point - will he have the same powers of recovery, one wonders?

The economy helped bail Clinton out - will it save Obama too?

325. Quite predictable but I guess Obama would probably say - ’so what? these voters have nowhere else to go’.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 15:35
195. “I only thing I can think from Gordo response is maybe he is going to try and “issue the challenge” at the Labour Party Conference, as trailed by the likes of Brogan, after all.”

Brown will use his speech to build on last years conference success issuing a headline-grabing boom of “This is no time for a debate!”
by Flashback September 3rd, 2009 at 15:36
Farage has probably realised that the only way UKIP will ever win a seat in the HoC is if nobody from the other parties is standing. Irony is - even then they will come second.
by StaffordKnot September 3rd, 2009 at 15:37
325- They don’t believe the premise that underlies your observation. They will never believe it because they cannot and will not accept that their views as so far out of the mainstream.

Their reasoning goes something like this: ‘The vast majority of people agree with us but were once upon a time somehow bamboozled into voting for Republicans. However, now that we have exposed Repubicans for the evil they are and people have finally seen the light, there’s nothing to stop us from bringing wonderful changes to America.’

As long as they believe that, they are sure to be disappointed that their marvelous president and supporting cast in Congress don’t deliver the change that they know is good for everyone and supported by all decent people.
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 15:38
Farage or Bercow? It’s like being asked if rather be smacked in the chops or punched in the gut. Neither are in any way appealing.

102 - As long as an inquiry attempts to find out who really did the Lockerbie bombings then great, it needs to start from a completely open position.
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 15:39
328, maybe he’ll kindly suspend elections as they would prove chaotic?
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:39
Gordon Brown thinks his only hope is the economy

“He {Brown} has already decided that his only hope of a comeback in the polls lies with the economy.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6819345.ece
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:41
330 Your post sounds like current Tory thinking, something like…

‘The vast majority of people agree with us but were once upon a time somehow bamboozled into voting for Labour. However, now that we have exposed Labour for the evil they are and people have finally seen the light, there’s nothing to stop us from bringing wonderful changes to Britain.’
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 15:42
240 - Thanks, though, I’m scared by the fact that my child maybe born in Lancashire.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:42
335, surely you could move to Yorkshire?
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:44
336 - Eagles - wherabouts in Lancashire?
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 15:45
321.I didn’t even get past the first few lines so missed the central point of his attack on Cameron. I am sure Maguire gave him both barrels and some.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 15:45
Nine months into BO’s campaign for a second term, it is evident that he has about as much substance and sizzle as a deflated soufflé.

People are now waking up and asking “Can we have been stupid enough to have lumbered ourselves with a President who is even less substantial that GWB?” and the answer comes echoing through the mists of time “YES WE CAN!!”
by mirthios September 3rd, 2009 at 15:46
335 - Do you want it to be born as far away from a Premier League Football ground as possible?
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 15:46
I’d like to see a TV program where Bercow and Farage have to go on a road trip together. Possibly on motorbikes, hopefully across Africa.
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:47
172 - It now appears that he was being punched in the face and retaliated. The loony right started these insane tactics, did they expect people to just take it?
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 15:47
340, I don’t think he wants the kiddiwink to be Scottish.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:47
335/336 - Probably Manchester. I’m moving to live in Manchester in January. You see I live in Richmond, North Yorks, my fiancee lives in Birkenhead. And we’re planning to move to Manchester.

I’m looking on the bright side, i was born in Scotland, and I didn’t turn out too bad.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:47
344 I think the jury is still out on that one.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 15:48
341, The Long Way Down’s first episode was so tedious I stopped watching about halfway through. Just two ordinary guys and their bikes. And a dozen film crew. With top of the range cars.

Also the chap McGregor was riding with seemed to be a scruffy, juvenile, loathsome oik who ought to be thrown into the Channel.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:49
340 - Ideally I’d like for him to be born at Anfield.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:50
344 - A William Hague/Frank Field conjoining.

I recommend Chorlton, or Heaton Moor.
Both good places to bring up children.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 15:51
344, a Manc?! Do you think you’ll dislike your offspring then?

Abandoning Yorkshire for the dark side of the Pennines…. tsk tsk.

I do, however, have an excellent suggestion for you to buy for your son/daughter/eagle-child:

http://www.gadgetshop.com/ViewAll/Trebuchet/EPN310466
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 15:51
341.Nah, make it a Citroen 2CV across Europe, one with a dodgy engine and exhaust.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 15:51
318 - Carter’s approval rating actually stayed very high for his first year or so, only declining later with the economy, recovering strongly later and tanking again over the Iranian hostage crisis.

I think it’s way too early to say how Obama’s will pan out. He’s fallen quite quickly from a high base, but the signs are that the economy will pick up quite quickly now and we really don’t know where healthcare will go from here.

To my mind, however, the closest comparison is Reagan, who had a tough first couple of years with the economy and world situation but if anything came out stronger.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 15:52
346. Exactly. Good concept, terrible execution. But done as a buddy movie with two of the slimier denizens of British politics…
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 15:53
Boulton just stated that Brown is the “outgoing Prime Minister”. OFCOM won’t like that, Murdoch will love it though;).
by Ed September 3rd, 2009 at 15:53
O/T apologies Gordon Brown,who he??

Extract from article in 24dash.com

A group of young people being given DJ training by the BBC had Gordon Brown in a spin today after challenging the Prime Minister to take a pay cut.

Mr Brown visited the BBC’s radio studios in west London to hear about a trainee scheme involving 21 youngsters.

After being given a tour of the building, he took part in a question and answer session with the group, aged between 18 and 24.

Fabian Facey, 21, from Manchester, asked Mr Brown if he would accept a reduced salary along with other politicians and business leaders if the money was used to help people out of work.

Mr Facey, known as “Soldier”, explained that his mother had lost her job as an office worker and his father had been made redundant from a factory job.

Mr Brown replied: “I am not worried about pay myself. If there was an agreement that we could all do I would be very much part of that. I am not in this job for the money.”
by Herbert Proper Snr September 3rd, 2009 at 15:54
349 - I’ll love it, no matter what. May abandon it if it turns out to be a Man U fan.

I’ll make sure it turns out to be a top scientist so they can help you with haddock breeding and solar weapon designing
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:54
“I didn’t even get past the first few lines so missed the central point of his attack on Cameron. I am sure Maguire gave him both barrels and some.”

Cameron LIES!! He’s a LIAR!!!! (Oh yeah, Brown is in difficutly over Lockerbie, but he’s NOT A TORY!!!!) sums it up.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 15:55
351. Obama could get lucky with the economy I think - although he already had a huge slice of luck with that, with the election coming so soon after the Lehmans debacle…
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 15:55
349 - Thanks for that link. I’ll get him/her one.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:55
345 - Harsh but fair
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 15:56
355 - Unless your girlfriend moves won’t your child be born on the Wirral, with the Cheshire/Scouse dilemma?
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 15:58
Farage isn’t going to win. his usual trick is to take on a Tory - Michael Howard in 2005 - but this time he knows he can’t win given the big swing towards the Tories in the polls, so he’s going to stand against the Speaker instead. No doubt when Farage completely fails he’ll have the readymade excuse that it was always going to be an uphill struggle, up against an 18000 majority etc. He’s obviously on the right politically and probably thinks he can pick up a few votes in such true blue territory. Still I’d have more respect for him if he had the cajones to take on a Tory MP with a small majority.
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 15:59
327, 330 But, according to this article, they seemed unable to accept that actually, most members of Congress don’t agree with them.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 15:59
361. Farage didn’t stand against Howard in 2005
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:00
Eagles - you’re having the same two years as me in the opposite order. I moved to Manchester two years ago - then got married - and all being well am expecting a baby early next year.
I chose Sale as a place to live - seems to be going ok - though tim points out the drawback: I’ll have to fight hard to make sure my future children don’t turn out to be Man United fans.
For me there are few finer places to live than Manchester, but conceivably Richmond could be one of them - it’s a fine little town and I love Swaledale.
If you’re worried about your child being born in Lancashire you should aim to live in South Manchester and maybe he/she can be born at Stepping Hill, Stockport (and therefore Cheshire) - apparently it’s one of the finest maternity units in the country and it’s also where I was born (though as that was over 30 years ago that’s an entirely unrelated fact).
Either way - welcome to Manchester!
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 16:00
Brown bottles it

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8236435.stm
by ghanimah September 3rd, 2009 at 16:00
360 - She’s moving to Manchester too.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:01
355, no need to help with the solar death ray, really, I could probably build a working model with a few hundred pounds [not actually joking ].

The link was posted here ages ago by James Burdett I think. ’tis a good one.
by Morris Dancer September 3rd, 2009 at 16:01
325 - Over half of people polled support a public option so it’s hardly surprising that these Democrat voters say that omitting it will lose their vote. It’s the mainstream voter who voted for this last November who are the ones needing to be kept onside. For that reason alone there will be a public option, as much as the right are trying to claim otherwise.
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 16:01
364 - Thank you for that and congrats to you as well.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:02
363…he stood againt the odious Mark MacGregor
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:02
347.I missed out on a U2 concert at Celtic Park, and all because of my Aberdeen supporting hubby’s panic I might give birth there with only a couple of weeks to go.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 16:02
tim - are you Mancunian too? Whereabouts are you?

Sometimes there are more mancs on here than Scots.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 16:03
Update on “will there be a debate?” betting. William Hill’s 7/4 YES option is now online, but stakes aren’t especially high. Paddy Power’s NO option is now in to 11/10 and stakes are even lower.
by antifrank September 3rd, 2009 at 16:03
367 Get a magnifying glass, a much cheaper way to create a solar death ray.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:04
367 MD. Was it this one?:

http://www.solardeathray.com/

Most amusingly the site also has a Gravity death Log: A big chunk of wood to destroys stuff when it is too cloudy for the
Solar Death Ray
by C September 3rd, 2009 at 16:04
375 - Oh dear God! This could be fun

Suggest a target for the death ray

http://www.solardeathray.com/suggest.html
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:07
376. Scale model of Holyrood!
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 16:08
372 - Not at the moment.

You are right about Stepping Hill though.
An excellent place.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 16:08
377. SNP HQ?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:09
I think a public debate with Cameron is the least of Brown’s worries. At the last election Blair employed the ‘masochism strategy’ which saw him, Howard and Kennedy undego various question time style sessions with voters. I think this is where Brown would be most vulnerable. Is there a way he could avoid it? And if he spends an election campaign avoiding scrutiny from the tv media, wouldn’t the other Party leaders have to be treated equally - so we end up with virtually no scrutiny of anyone.

I have a funnt feeling that at the next election we will have one ‘leaders debate’ and that will be about it.
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 16:09
**** BETTING POST ****

vc.bet have Tories to win 375-399 seats at 5/1, (16.67%). Ladbrokes only go 4/1.

I rate a Tory “landslide” of 100+ majority now at around Evens or 50%. I think the chances of the Tories getting 400+ seats are around 8/1 or 12.5%. So, by my assessment, 375-399 seats is 37.5% likely or roughly a 13/8 shot.

vc.bet’s SV (St.John Value) = 37.5%/16.67% = 2.25 or 125% SV.

I’m on!
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 16:10
362- And why do most members of Congress not agree with them? Again, instead of accepting that they may in fact represent only a small minority of voters, they concoct outlandish theories about why some members of Congress within their own party have seemingly irrational fears about their re-election prospects or, gulp, perhaps even have real doubts about the agenda itself. These theories inevitably become more and more absurd since there are no Republicans around to blame for a lack of progress anymore.
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 16:12
Perhaps the solar death ray could be combined with the leaders debate. Just to make them sweat of course. Not sure anyone would survive if the public controlled the dial through a phone in.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:14
Jonathan, tim, what do you think of your leader today? A man so feeble and cowardly, he will not agree to a TV debate EVEN THOUGH he is fifteen points behind in the polls and facing a landslide defeat?

It’s like a drowning man refusing to climb on a raft because he is scared of flat wooden things.

He is just a bolus of jelly. A fairycake of funk. A great big handbag full of knock-kneed, noodle-spined, ladyboyed nothingness.

Good choice for leader. Well done.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 16:17
384 - Sean you’re being unfair. Gordon Brown is getting on with the job of making sure we are best placed to weather this global downturn.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:20
381 stjohn

Yep, I think your estimates are pretty good. Shadsy offers only 11/10 on Con Maj 100+, which suggests the 375-399 band is spiffing value (I took some yesterday, and I’m also using a spread bet).

Note that bet365 also offer 5/1 on 375-399. Oddly, though, their odds for 400+ are very poor.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 16:22
384 - I reached that conclusion long ago.
Before you were writing your paeans of praise less than two years ago.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 16:23
On topic

Very interesting proposition for us political junkies, but I think historically most people in Speaker constituencies have been quite proud to have the Speaker as their MP, and in a seat with a huge Tory majority I don’t think there’ll be that many Tories who’d prefer to throw that away in favour of UKIP.

I’d be interested at 10/1, but I think enough PBers have already put their money down to stop 10/1 occurring!

Rob
by Robert Barnes September 3rd, 2009 at 16:23
387. You are Sarah Brown and I claim my £5.
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 16:25
O/T- This has to be one of the funniest, not to mention ugliest, photos of a high-profile politician ever:

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2009/5/5/1241538566703/John-Prescott-imitates-Go-003.jpg
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 16:25
390. As unbelieveable as it may seem, in our rather unglamorous British politcs, Prescott is something of a ladies man.
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 16:29
390 - Did they photoshop Tracy Temple out of that picture?
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:30
391 - the funny thing about that photograph is that it was John Prescott trying to be supportive.
by Cookie September 3rd, 2009 at 16:30
381. Re my betting post above:

Richard Nabavi’s assessment of the likely General Election outcome now favours a “large” Tory majority. And, if I have understood him correctly here and in his excellent article on PBC2, the best betting option may lie in betting on these “seat bands” markets, and choosing the option closest to where you think the actual election outcome will be.
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 16:30
Sorry, not been keeping up with the news closely today. Has Brown definitely ruled out appearing in Skynews leadership debate, or is he still dithering behind the door of No10 while his spin machine work out an equally dithering and pathetic refusal?
How the hell is the guy going to have the cojones to fight a GE campaign if he does refuse this?

And why can Fifa stop Chelsea signing players??? Is there some signing ‘off side rule’ on the go?
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 16:31
392. It looks like they photoshopped Les Dawson into it.
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 16:32
386/394. Richard. We are clearly on the same wavelength!
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 16:32
395 - Christina he is dithering. Apparently now is not the time to discuss such matters.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:33
“Has Brown definitely ruled out appearing in Skynews leadership debate, or is he still dithering behind the door of No10 while his spin machine work out an equally dithering and pathetic refusal?”

Now is not the time to talk about such things. Election debates are for debate at elections, where as debates outside of elections are not.

Apparently.
by David September 3rd, 2009 at 16:33
399 Fair enough, why should he be bounced into it? In the real world, if it happens, it will be on his and Dave’s agreed terms and no one elses. Clegg and the media will have to go along with whatever terms the two main leaders want. The rest is pure posturing.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:38
Let us accept for a moment that now is not the time to debate election debates. So when can we debate election debates? I think this needs debating.

Surely now must be the time to debate when we can debate election debates. Let the debating begin!
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 16:39
I’m worrying if Gordo “I’ll take a pay cut” headlines he is getting today, may backfire in the future. Yes he gave a big fat IF…, but people don’t remember the IF part. If he doesn’t take a pay cut before the election, could it come back to haunt him again with somebody asking him but you said that….At a QT special, I don’t think anybody is going to be impressed if he says, well I did say that, but also said I would have taken a pay cut, if only parliament had voted for it….With 3-4 million unemployed, that ain’t going to go down very well!
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 16:41
391 It would seem that women find him very attractive.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 16:41
worrying -> wondering…
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 16:41
Don’t want to sound repetitive but just to expand on (380) there is far too much fuss about whether there willor won’t be a tv debate between leaders at the next election. I can just see Brown making the announcement at Labour conference to much fanfare ‘Bring it on!’ the media will hype it ‘New courageous Brown ready to face scrutiny’. And for a while everyone will feel satisfied.

Then when we come to the election, there will be one set-piece debate perhaps not involving direct debate anyway, amidst a month-long campaign of Brown going around the country making statements on platforms and avoiding any questions.
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 16:41
403 It’s a cross that many of us have to bear.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:41
387. So why the f*ck haven’t you got rid of this pathetic apology for a leader? He’s not just crap, he is piercingly embarrassing. He hasn’t the testicles of a gecko.

Just dump him. Get rid. He’s a world class twerp. Even Alan “I’m not good enough Gordon Brown is miles better” Johnson would be better.

Moreover, it amazes me how Gordon’s advisors, if they exist, can’t see what the problem is, and how they can change it. This latest debate embarrassment is a classic example.

To wit: Brown has a reputation as a pitiful, dithering coward. He needs to change this image.

And now, here’s a chance to make the change. He’s been challenged. So why not meet the challenge, just for once? Just march right out of Number 10, lift your jaw Gordon, and say: Bring It On. I will debate any man anywhere with any colour underwear. Whatever. I am up for it. I am GORDO!

At least it would make a few people think - well he showed some guts there.

And what does he do? He dithers about his dithering. He hides behind words. He says he will debate the election debates when the debates about election debates are debatably near the election.

He is IDIOT.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 16:42
403 - If they find him attractive, it cant be of he has an enormous todger, cos erm we all know otherwise, So it must be his personality that gets him the women?
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:43
405 - That is allegedly the plan according to the likes of Brogan.
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 16:43
400. The answer is: see my post at 407.

One of Brown’s major problems is that he is now seen as a bottler, a vacillating coward. He needs to change this. So? What happens when he is challenged to an election debate?

He acts like a bottler, a vacillating coward. He dithers.

Changing his mind in a month and accepting the debate will be too late. More damage has been done to his image. If that’s possible.
by SeanT September 3rd, 2009 at 16:45
403. He does have an appeal to a certain kind of cheap slapper, it seems.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:47
411 I detect a hint of envy.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:48
403. Some women, I would say.
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 16:51
412. On your part? Well they do say politics is showbiz for ugly people Jonathan…
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:51
397 stjohn - I should make clear that I think 375+ is less than a 50% probability, but not much less. (Allowing for a typical 15% profit margin, Ladbrokes’ odds on Maj 100+ imply around 40% probability, which sounds about right to me). The Betfair Party Seats Line is currently at 357-361, so that’s a general indication of where the market thinks the 50% probability line lies.

However, if using the seat bands one needs to cover more than just a 25-seat slot, since the distribution of plausible outcomes is quite wide. My strategy has been to use various bets (such as simple Conservative majority, and bets on individual constituencies) to provide a profitable baseline over a wide range, and use the seat bands to spice up returns in what I think is the most likely range of 350-385 or so. My recent re-entry into the Spreads market is just in case Labour continue to make as bad a mess of things as they are doing at the moment - on current form, Con 400+ can’t be ruled out, although it’s still unlikely.

Of course, the odds on simple Con majority have shortened considerably since I started building up this position, but they are still value IMO.
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 16:52
414 Leave my part out of this.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:52
Anyone know the reason for Lembit Opik’s pulling ability?
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:52
410. Yes Sean. Now is not the time to bottle debating election debates. Brown should grab the initiative here. Neither Cameron or Clegg have shown that they are prepared to debate election debates. They side stepped the issue by hiding behind a simple assent to an election debate. Bottlers!

Brown should now show some courage and challenge both Cameron and Clegg to an immediate debate on election debates and force them both to make the case.
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 16:53
417 The aura of power.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:53
368 “For that reason alone there will be a public option, as much as the right are trying to claim otherwise”

From today’s NY Times:
“they insisted that Mr. Obama had not given up on the provision that has attracted the most fire from the right, a proposal for a government-run competitor to private insurers, although many Democrats say the proposal may eventually be jettisoned. ”

““It’s so important to get a deal,” a White House official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to be candid about strategy. “He will do almost anything it takes to get one.”

UKPaul, the source of most information on what’s happening in the health care debate is from the Democrats, not the right wing.
by Tim B (not the other one) September 3rd, 2009 at 16:54
419 - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

Now you’ve gone and made me spill my coffee!
by Fleet of Worlds September 3rd, 2009 at 16:54
419 - But the Lib Dems have never been near power, and never will be on current polling.

OMG - I’ve turned into Martin Day.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:55
416. boom boom! a new Morecombe and Wise…
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 16:55
- and on a lighter note, meet St Barack..

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2009/09/st_barack.asp
by Tim B (not the other one) September 3rd, 2009 at 16:55
Ugly Pulling Politicians Photo Montage to end them all.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/00781/prescott-privacy-46_781099c.jpg
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 16:56
423 Nice one little Ern.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 16:56
425 - You should post NSFW with that link.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 16:57
422 - not until you can prove your expertise with Photoshop
by Tim B (not the other one) September 3rd, 2009 at 16:57
425 - Is that Tracy licking something off her lips, there?

Oh god, I’ve gone and made myself ill now.

In fairness, Mellor is the ugliest f**ker ever to walk the Earth, is he not?
by Fleet of Worlds September 3rd, 2009 at 16:57
417 - Persistence and a willingness to take a thousand FUs on the chin in the hunt for a big yes - as is so often the case with ladies’ men.

422 - I think that was Jonathan’s joke. But thanks for explaining it for the slow witted.
by Sir Norfolk Passmore September 3rd, 2009 at 16:58
417. That thing he does with his jaw gives him the oral skills of Jar Jar Binks.
by AndrewG September 3rd, 2009 at 16:59
431 - Stop, please stop, I don’t want to know about Lembit’s oral skills
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:00
Right now, in my head I have images of John Prescott, Lembit Opik and David Mellor engaged in sexual congress, not concurrently.

I’m off to the nearest to psychaitric hospital.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:03
429 - It could be the blood of Christ, although she seems to be vertical with Prescott and the Archbish.

They’ve been making a film about Mellor for the last decade.
John Hurt is still in make up apparently.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:03
433. Add Ron Davies to that list and you will be sectioned immediately.
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 17:04
” a White House official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to be candid about strategy”

In other words, they made it up. It doesn’t pay to be so credulous of journalism, it’s like the story that Obama had dissed Cameron, pure exaggeration and a minor player trying to appear big. Democrats will not put something forward that will lose them their core support (look at the polls), it’s a question of maths if nothing else.

What is clear is that Democrats have finally hit upon a way of getting the vocal, rather than tacit, support they need and have been lacking; make supporters realise what is at stake and energise them into supporting it.
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 17:04
I always thought animosity towards Prescott was based on the politics of envy….
by Frank Booth September 3rd, 2009 at 17:04
411, Even that is an impressive achievement for a man so ugly.

417. That is something I can’t fathom, although Sir Norfolk probably supplies the correct answer. 419 LOL!.

429 The Mellorphant man is indeed hideous, and has green breath, to boot. Evidently, some women find him attractive - which I suppose is something that most men should find encouraging.
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 17:05
417 where John “chipolata” Prescott had the aura of power but would never be mistaken for John Holmes, I understand Lembit “verivorst” Opik is rumoured to have the opposite…
by Ted September 3rd, 2009 at 17:05
433 You have to name your child John David Lembit now, to give him the best possible start in life with the ladies.

431 There had to be a reason why Jar Jar got that part in Ep1. Now we know.
by Jonathan September 3rd, 2009 at 17:05
435 - What about the Cooper-Balls?
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:06
435 - Will nobody think of the badgers?
by antifrank September 3rd, 2009 at 17:06
438 - My favourite ugly tory is this one.

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/06/27/article-0-056A2E80000005DC-879_233×423.jpg

Perhaps he makes it because he also took bribes, went to Eton and believes in homeopathy and Astrology.

He ticks all the boxes.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:08
Time for a new thread!
by Neil September 3rd, 2009 at 17:08
436 The Guardian gives credence to the “Blair, sizzle & substance, Brown substance, Cameron sizzle” quote as sounding more like Obama but also points to Richard Wolffe’s book about the Obama campaign, Renegade: The Making of Barack Obama where the verdict on Brown was “dour and dreary” in comparison to “the energy of the up-and-coming Cameron”.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2009/sep/03/obama-brown-dour-dreary
by Ted September 3rd, 2009 at 17:09
443 Who’s that?
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 17:10
443 - Tim, what is your issue with Etonians, I mean, I have a rational hatred of Eton, but even mine doesn’t manifest as much as yours.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:10
446 - David Treddinick
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:11
415. Richard. I have a very good position on Tory overall majority at average odds of about 8/11.

I agree that expecting a 25 seat band to be a winner appears rather ambitious. But descibed as an overall majority of 100-150 the band “feels” wider and probably is wider than it superficially appears if the band is close to the projected outcome.

My strategy is to hold my band bets until nearer the election. if the polls continue to look favourable I will probably let them ride. If an adjacent band - higher or lower - looks more likely as election day approaches, I may cover this too.

Peter from Putney’s identification of Hills “50 seat wide” 150-199 band for Labour seats, some time back, was an excellent spot. I got on at 4/1.
by stjohn September 3rd, 2009 at 17:12
445 Ted - Leaving aside his reported views on the (to him largely unknown) Cameron, if Obama thinks Blair is a man of substance, let alone Brown, it doesn’t bode well for the quality of his judgement.

Of course, he may well have revised his view in recent days…
by Richard Nabavi September 3rd, 2009 at 17:12
448 Who’s he?
by Sean Fear September 3rd, 2009 at 17:13
447 - I love them.
They’re hilarious.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:14
451 - Tory MP for Bosworth
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:15
451 The MP (yes, still the MP) for Bosworth.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:15
452 - Not you as well. I’ve just finished reading an Iain Dale post where he (wrongly) described a Hopi Sen post as “hilarious”. Hilarious is rapidly descending into a word which when used means the opposite of what it is formally supposed to mean.
by antifrank September 3rd, 2009 at 17:17
454 - Tim, the people have had 3 opportunities to vote him out of office, since the cash for questions issue reared its head. If they can forgive and forget, perhaps you can too.

Or shall i start mentioning the likes of Bob Wareing.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:18
If we are on ugly, let’s not forget this fine figure of a man

http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/apr2009/6/5/derek-draper-pic-pa-895575448.jpg
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 17:19
Tredinnick also had fantastic expense claims

David Tredinnick, the Conservative MP for Bosworth, attended the four-hour seminar, which included learning how to “honour the female and also the male essence and the importance of celebrating each”.

The invitation to the course, which he submitted with his office expenses, also said: “Where did the magic go? Discover how to recreate that again. Attend this course and find out how to make things better and develop tools for taking your relationship to an outstanding level of love, fun, laughter, passion and intimacy.”

The course offered to teach those attending about “polarity and neutrality” and the “deep passions of our intimate relationships”.

An official in the Commons fees office wrote to Mr Tredinnick to explain that “costs relating to Intimate Relationships courses do not fall within the remit of this allowance” and the claim was turned down.

Both the course outline submitted by Mr Tredinnick, and the fees office letter rejecting the claim, were redacted from the official expenses published by the Commons.

The course in London was run by Fiona McKenzie, who formerly worked in investment banking but retrained as a homoeopath.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:19
BINGO
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 17:20
459 - It’s not bingo, he’s not mention his dog whistle on tax credits.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:21
436- I’m glad you agree that the NYT has as much credibility as the National Enquirer.

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 17:21
456 - I’ll join you in slagging off SlobaBob Wareing.

This is the problem with safe seats and bent MPs.
by tim September 3rd, 2009 at 17:22
462. but lets not mention the ones from Scotland who happen to be Treasury ministers.
by dr spyn September 3rd, 2009 at 17:23
463. Why not?
by runnymede September 3rd, 2009 at 17:23
Yet you’ve never slagged of Bob Wareing on here. Only Tories.

One might mistake you for a labour party hack.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:24
461 - The National Enquirer webpage appears to have been stolen by aliens - “Page unavailable/under construction”.
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 17:25
466- That will be tomorrow’s headline!

It works fine for me… they must think they’re too good for Brits.
by Stars and Stripes September 3rd, 2009 at 17:26
458 - Sadly we’ll never know what Blair claimed on expenses. He might have claimed for Carole Caplin’s massages and other homeopathetic stuff.

Unfortunately they were shredded.
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:26
436 “What is clear is that Democrats have finally hit upon a way of getting the vocal, rather than tacit, support they need and have been lacking; make supporters realise what is at stake and energise them into supporting it.”

Actually it’s a little less noble than that, being as this is simply politics in action:

1. Obama (at last!) takes a leadership role and actually says what he wants, to some extent anyway to a joint session on 9/9. It’s a high risk strategy but he really has no choice at this point.
2. The dems discuss among themselves what they can agree on and which goodies will survive out of the 4 current bills - including the public option
3. Once the dems are all agreed on what they can get through, (probably including a serious attempt to get senators Snow an Collins to back it) they now have something to sell
4. The head salesman uses the bully pulpit of the presidency to rally support for the bill and to get it through.

Remember, the fundamental problem with the health care reform proposals is very simple: the democrats cannot agree among themselves what they want, and there has been no leadership from Reid, Pelosi or Obama on this. the 9/9 speech should begin to ease the logjam - if not the cause is very possibly lost, (which would be unfortunate in my opinion).
by Tim B (not the other one) September 3rd, 2009 at 17:29
BREAKING NEWS:

Soldier from 2nd Battalion The Mercian Regiment killed in Afghanistan. Next of kin told
by Oracle September 3rd, 2009 at 17:29
398&99. Ta, so we are still dithering at the moment about to get out of this.

401.stjohn
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 17:33
467 - It’s blocked, the libel laws here appear to be more robust.

Via Wikipedia - “As of March 2009, UK and Irish visitors are still presented with a blank page reading ‘Page unavailable/under construction’ when visiting the website. The magazine continues to be sold in Irish supermarkets.”
by ukpaul September 3rd, 2009 at 17:34
450 I tend to believe the “dour & dreary” more than the “sizzle” but for an opposition leader “sizzle” is not an insult, substance only comes with power.
by Ted September 3rd, 2009 at 17:34
458 good example of the system working in that instance. The MP claimed and was informed the claim did not meet criteria and he was not paid.
very much a non-story that one, except of course Brother’s Brogan and Pierce thought it would provide some cheap laughs for the simple-minded as it involved a course about relationships.
In that, the brethren were well in tune with the immaturity of the hive mind.
by Dyed in some wool somewhere September 3rd, 2009 at 17:36
457. Did anyone ever see Michael Jackson and Dolly Draper together?

Michael Jackson

Dolly Draper
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 17:37
Hmm, didn’t work, OK.

Dolly Draper: http://lh4.ggpht.com/_JL95hwGAV7w/SkQgmZLG5VI/AAAAAAAABzQ/g_Qk_c4MoaM/%5BUNSET%5D.jpg

Michael Jackson: http://images.mirror.co.uk/upl/m4/apr2009/6/5/derek-draper-pic-pa-895575448.jpg
by Absolutely Totally Brilliant, Damian September 3rd, 2009 at 17:38
New thread up
by The Screaming Eagles September 3rd, 2009 at 17:39
417.I thought that Lempit’s pulling power was the stuff of legends.
by ChristinaD September 3rd, 2009 at 17:39
And if he spends an election campaign avoiding scrutiny from the tv media, wouldn’t the other Party leaders have to be treated equally - so we end up with virtually no scrutiny of anyone.

I suggested the other day that this will be Labours election strategy. Hide Brown then apply pressure on the media not to give much coverage to the Conservatives, on the grounds of balance and fairness

Simples!

by Flashback September 3rd, 2009 at 17:40
To keep the conspiracy going …

The BBC have show a map in connection with a story they are running about a British person who saved jews fro Czechoslovakia during the war.

Germany Czechoslovakia Holland are all shown as countries. But the UK has England highlighted separately from Wales and Scotland. At least it is not split into EU regions.

And on ‘cuts’ to the NHS - the govt haver denied they are going to follow mcKinleys suggestions about cutting costs.

So just how are they going to cut costs. They talk about efficiency. But efficiency will not necessarily cut costs - it will do things better but how will the govt cut costs and thus the deficit?
Simply following govt plans means far less health spending growth than recently - ie ‘cuts’. So how will the govt make savings?
by TrevorsDen September 3rd, 2009 at 17:45

Is it worth a punt on Farage?

481 comments to “Is it worth a punt on Farage?”

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