The Brazilian futures market
August 2nd, 2009
Dan Hamilton takes an early look at Brazil 2010
On Sunday 10th October 2010, Brazilians will go to the polls to pick the country’s fourth directly-elected President since the resumption of civilian rule in 1985. The 2010 elections will mark the first Presidential election since 1989 in which incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former shoe-shiner and sheet metal worker, will not be a candidate. Choosing not to emulate the example of Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe or Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, he has not sought to alter Article 16 of the country’s constitution which limits Presidents to two consecutive terms.
Lula’s 2006 re-election race was nothing other than a resounding success for the incumbent, sweeping twenty states to former Sao Paulo state Governor Geraldo Alckmin’s seven. Even in the case of opposition victories, Alckmin’s strength lay predominantly in the sparsely populated states of southern and western states bordering Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina. The opposition candidate’s only real victory was in his native state of Sao Paulo, home to just under a quarter of the country’s 190 million people, where he narrowly outran Lula by 52% to 48%. The rest of the country delivered near-absolute domination for the left with Lula outpacing Alckmin by a 78:22 margin in Bahia, 70:30 in Rio de Janeiro state and 65:35 in Minas Gerais. Indeed, the further north one travelled, the greater the Lula margin of victory became – most astonishing being the Amazonas where he crushed Alckmin 87:13. The only northern state won by Alckmin was wealthy Roraima on the border of Venezuela and Guyana, centre to Brazil’s developing diamond and gold industry.
Electorally-speaking, it speaks volumes about the strength of leftist sentiment in the Brazil’s impoverished population centres that Lula was only denied an outright first round victory as a result of support for the avowedly Marxist candidate Heloísa Helena who left Lula’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) in protest at the party’s perceived move to the centre. Picking up 17% of the first round vote in Rio de Janeiro, 7% in Sao Paulo and Bahia and 5% in Minas Gerais, Helena’s 6.85% first round support, when added to Lula’s 48.61%, would have been more than enough for the incumbent to avoid a second round clash with Alckmin.
It is starkly apparent how little Brazilian politics has changed little since João Figueiredo’s military junta relinquished power in 1985. Almost a quarter of a century since the appointment by Electoral College of Tancredo Neves (who died hours before taking office) as the first civilian President and twenty years since Fernando Collor’s direct election, senior political offices in the country continue to be predominantly filled by aged veterans of the struggle for democracy. The 2010 Presidential election is likely to do little to change this reality.
The two front-runners - Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra and Presidential Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff – are very similar personal and political quantities. Both are trained economists in their mid-to-late 60s who grew up in Brazil’s prosperous South Eastern states. Both candidates were exiled in Argentina and the United States for their opposition to military rule. Both espouse relatively flexible political ideologies which offend neither bankers nor slum-dwellers. Both are technocrats who owe their rapid political rise to party-political patronage and appointments to unelected yet highly influential cabinet positions. Crucially, neither possesses the star-power of the outgoing President.
While polling day remains more than a year away, one can make several early observations about the race. It is clear that Jose Serra has very firmly established himself as the front-runner in the contest holding a robust 38% rating in the most recent Datafolha poll. The Sao Paulo governor’s support base has fluctuated between his current 38% and a high point of 41% since March 2008, indicating a modicum of stability to his poll numbers.
Politically-speaking, Brazil is truly a country where there is little shame in losing. It took Lula some four attempts to be elected President and (with the exception of Rousseff who has never sought elected office) all the 2010 Presidential hopefuls have faced numerous past defeats in mayoral, gubernatorial and even past Presidential races. As such, Serra’s initially high poll numbers may have more to do with his higher name recognition than any genuine groundswell of popular support.
Serra does, however, enjoy the firm and avowed support of the residents of the state of Sao Paulo. The state’s prosperous electors forgave him for breaking his pledge during the 2006 mayoral race to serve a full four year term, electing him as Governor two years late with 58% of the vote. Arguably the driver of the Brazilian economy, Sao Paulo’s business community will ensure that Serra is possession of the financial resources to comfortably outspend each of his challenges.
Despite Serra’s stability, the candidate with momentum - a crucial quality for candidates in Presidential elections from the United States to Uruguay - is Dilma Rousseff. Her support has risen steadily from 3% in April 2008 to 16% today with no other candidate from the Partido dos Trabalhadores even closely approaching her current poll standing.
Rousseff has the enthusiastic support of the outgoing President – something viewed as crucial by media observers both in and outside Brazil. Despite of the high-profile Mensalão scandal in which bribes were funnelled to congressmen through state-owned companies by PT officials in order to gain support for the President’s legislation, numerous and frequent currency devaluations and little real progress in the battle against poverty, Lula remains genuinely popular amongst the Brazilian public. In a June IBOPE survey, 68% of respondents rated his performance as “good” or very good” while a further 24% labelled his performance “fair”. At 8%, fewer than one in ten Brazilians consider Lula’s job performance to be “bad” or “very bad”.
There is, however, a risk of overestimating the importance of Lula’s endorsement. The 2008 local elections proved this. While the PT’s residual strength carried them to easy victories in the majority of small-town races, Brazil’s key population centres ignored impassioned pleas from their popular President to support his candidates. Perhaps the most painful example of this was the failure of former Mayor and Tourism Minister Marta Suplicy – a front-runner to succeed Lula as the PT’s Presidential candidate for 2010 – to defeat Gilberto Kassab in Sao Paulo despite the incumbent’s opinion poll rating standing at 17% less than six weeks before polling day. Personal appearances at campaign rallies the city’s poorest areas and near-blanket coverage of the state’s media markets with television adverts featuring an open-collared Lula appealing for support for “my Marta” failed to prevent Kassab defeating Suplicy 61% to 39%.
Even in Rio de Janeiro, a city which gave Lula almost 80% of its votes in 2006, his handpicked candidate Eduardo Paes spluttered to victory by half a percentage point despite almost every billboard and lamp-post in the Cidade Maravilhosa being plastered with images of the two men grinning in that way only populist South American politicians can while making thumbs-up gestures.
It is noticeable, given the long tradition of Brazilian Presidential candidates to run as the candidates of coalitions of large and small political parties, how robust support for ‘third party’ candidates is at this stage. On the left, support for Heloísa Helena and the former Finance Minister Ciro Gomes who briefly pulled ahead of Lula and Serra in the 2002 contest stands as high as ten and fifteen percent respectively. Invading Serra’s political space to the right is Minas Gerais Governor Aécio Neves whose support is hovering at around 14%.
While an early decision by these candidates to align themselves with either of the two front-runners could help avoid the usual first-round voting fragmentation seen in Brazilian elections, establishment fatigue and the lack of a real sense of enthusiasm towards Serra or Rousseff could catapult any of them into active contention within a matter of days.
With more than a year to go until polling day, this is the most unpredictable Presidential election in Brazilian electoral history – and a market only a fool would be willing to bet on.
Editor’s Note:
Dan, many thanks for an outstanding article. If anyone else would like to submit a guest article on international politics or finance/economics, please drop me a line at electiongame[at]yahoo[dot]co[dot]uk.
Double Carpet
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Is this another Mandy thread ??
First?
Ave it/09 for PM.
JackW for Health.
SeanT at the FO.
Martin Day for Home Office (get rid of the L/Dems)
Nadasafish for Treasury.
MTfan for Defence.
Easterross. Scottish Office.
Stars and Stripes Ambassador to USA,
Roll on the General Election.
A magnificent article! Bravo!
(from previous thread) Nick Palmer - I had a look at your website and it shows you campaigning to get dogs (presumably pre-screened as placid ones) into old folks homes.
Is that really a problem? Over here it is common and nobody thinks twice about it as as the therapeutic effects of animals (mainly dogs) on old people and kids in hospitals are well known. My own 3 year old German Shepherd Heidi was considered, but she got a bit rattled when they shook pots, pans and cans full of coinage behind her in the test, as did I, because I wasn’t expecting it either!
They do check the dogs out thoroughly first however, and you have to be an accepted member of an authorized group before you are allowed to do it.
Had time to read the thread leader. Excellent article Dan.
2. weathercock. “JackW for Health.”
I’ll resign on account of ill health if I don’t make 108 !!
Wow. That article on a blog. Mike, you deserve it but you really have got a hell of a contributor list.
Honestly, compare this to Guido or Iain Dale. Why would anyone not read this blog if interested in politics?
On Topic - what a fascinating article!
It is my experience (tying this article in with the previous one) that kings (even kings as powerful as Mandela or Lula) rarely make good kingmakers, and kingmakers rarely make good kings.
The anointed ones often don’t make it despite having all the advantages (see one Hillary Clinton). If they do they often underperform (see one Gordon Brown).
It is bizarre that true giants in their field so often see quality in others which just isn’t there, objectively. A bit too much projection and willing of their own qualities going on, methinks.
Great article on something that I guess most of us knew almost nothing about. It’d be interesting to get “Me”’s input - I know he’s not a Lula fan but how does he sees the outlook?
I was posting at the end of the last thread about it being easier than I’d thought to to win over some regular Conservative voters. I know that provokes a mixture of incredulity and derision here, and it may be worth quoting one email today - the writer gets my emails but I’ve not heard from him personally before:
“I would normally be a conservative supporter but for the next general election I find it difficult to think of one positive reason why I would want to vote conservative. I think Gordon Brown has had a tough time in office and believe that much of the criticism has been undeserved, he appears to be steering us through the recession and representing our interests internationally quite well, what more do we want from our PM!”
In my experience, Conservatives who like Brown are unusual, but those who can’t think of a positive reason to vote Tory are not that rare. The Cameron strategy of not saying anything much as it might upset someone has its downsides.
I cannot but be depressed when reading anything about Brazil.
No matter what government they elect, or don’t for that matter; the way they are going on all Brazils Rain Forest will be gone by 2035 leaving a Desert and an even more impoverished world.
I’m only glad that I (probably) won’t be arount to see it, (being 101 by then).
2 Roger as Minister for the Arts.
Just make sure it is not a Cabinet position!
Tim at 4 - yes, it’s rather unusual here for pets to be allowed in residential homes, and even in sheltered accommodation (schemes with lots of self-contained flats and a warden who looks in sometimes to see if you need a hand) pets are often banned. As you say it needs careful planning but many scheme managers ban them just to avoid any complication. There’s also an element of extreme risk avoidance - someone might trip over a cat, so if cats are banned the residents can be protected from that risk. You say it’s not seen as a problem ‘here’ - where are you?
Fantastic article - except for the final DO NO BET health warning!
Dan is a contact of Morus, so kudos and many thanks to Morus for his role in getting it onto PB.
We’ve had some very very good guest articles on PB both on domestic and international politics, but this is probably one of the very best and wouldn’t be out of place in the FT or the Economist - many thanks again to Dan for writing it, and this will be an essential reference as we approach the Brazilian elections next autumn.
13 - I think he meant “do not bet - yet…”!!
If I were to perhaps foolishly ignore Dan’s advice and take the plunge, I might go for Serra, although there don’t seem to be any markets up.
… and has anyone seen any markets for Japan?
Also, Richard Nabavi’s article on PB2 is a must-read if you haven’t already done so.
9 I am sure there will be one or two examples in most constituncies of your friendly email writer Nick. Unfortuantely for you, and fortunately for most of us, there are far more who can see good reasons to vote Conservative and don’t fall for the ‘dealing with the recession/global megaman’ Brown nonsense.
You get the needle in the haystack prize though for sure.
9. Frankly that post isn’t even worthy of being treated with derision.
We get e-mails like that all the time here Nick.
They’re called “astroturfers”.
And if they’re not astroturfers, why are you 15 points behind?
17 On the other hand,in my opinion,
Next year David Cmeron almostly certainly will become Prime Minister,despite,as opposed because of,the fact he is leader of the Conservative Party.
He’s personable,moderate,trying to break with the past,and has the good fortune to be around as the incumbent Labour government is seemingly going into its final death throes.
Given NuLab’s authoritarianism, it’s no surprise some dino-Cons yearn for the dithering hand of Brown.
12 - Nick I’m an expat brit living in Atlanta, GA USA. Leave Heathrow and head roughly south west and you’ll find it.
The big difference here of course it that the home or hospital management make these kind of decisions, and it is almost always completely non-controversial.
The groups raise support funds by (typically) raffles etc. The group I was involved with got to sell tickets at 2 Atlanta Thrashers games each year. That’s a hockey team by the way - I know ice hockey in Hotlanta is a bit weird, but it’s all part of life’s rich tapestry.
It doesn’t need careful planning - just establish standards and testing regimens and let the group handle it - if there’s a problem then it’s adios muchachos to the group. Of course you have to be there with your own dog, on a leash - no substitutes.
See the smile on the face of an old person or a kid as they pet the dog or it licks their hand, and the tail wags - it’s just magic.
I would treat with the gravest suspicion any mail received from a pet in a residential home.
18. Perhaps Nick copied himself on that mail by mistake…
Interesting article, but you forgot to add the elephant-in-the-corner that may effect the ability of PT to retain the presidency. Namely - assuming Brazilians are as motivated as we English* - how will the result of the 2010 World-Cup affect the electoral psyche…?
* Of course England will have elected David Cameron before the tournament starts, but it’s a metaphor.
Just caught Daniel Hannan on Fox News agreeing that the UK NHS is a ‘nightmare’ and using it to argue that the US should ditch their own plans to introduce universal healthcare.
Never trust a tory.
Never trust a tory.
Never trust a tory.
Never trust a tory.
Never trust a tory.
(…repeat forever)
25 I doubt if Obama’s plans will be much swayed by a man,who with the greatest of respect,is on the fringe of the fringe
Just caught Gabble on PB.com b*llsh*tting as usual.
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’.
I’m a soldier for truth!
F*ck off Gabble.
26. Correct. He’s already made up his mind to ditch this policy, I expect.
Very interesting article, thanks Dan. This is the kind of informed international article which the mainstream media hardly ever seem to bother to run.
On a more immediate betting market, the forthcoming German elections look interesting. Whilst it is not in much doubt that Angela Maerkel will remain Chancellor, the interesting question is the make-up of the coalition (currently an uneasy alliance of left and right). It would be great to get an insight into this.
25 Dan Hannan’s views on the NHS aren’t a secret Gabble - you can in fact completely trust him to play that line time and time again.
And quite rightly so in my opinion.
Free healthcare for those in need, lower taxes and health insurance for the rest.
Free oursleves from the shackles of the entitlement state.
I’m getting sick and tired of Nick Palmer’s canvass returns and incoming mail!
I sometimes wonder if he actually believes it all himself. I hope he doesn’t though, cos he’ll be in for one hell of a surprise on election night!
Broxtowe = LIB DEM GAIN!!!!!!
“31.I’m getting sick and tired of Nick Palmer’s canvass returns and incoming mail!”
I know, anyone would think Labour hadn’t been behind in the polls for almost 2 years and was currently 15 points behind.
25 - Gabble: being an ex-pat brit who went back to the UK for over 5 years, I can tell you that based on my daughter’s experience the NHS WAS a nightmare.
She fell off a haystack on the farm next to our house, shattering a knee. The ambulance came and took her to hospital, and they operated the next morning. It was quickly apparent that all was not well, and the follow up physiotherapy was a complete joke and wholly inadequate.
She was in a ward of 8 beds (she was 12 at the time) for 4 days. They never changed the sheets, and when she went back to thank the staff on the ward 2 weeks later, nobody remembered her.
We eventually had to go private to have a second operation to mend the damage from the NHS operation. We were told by my attorney that we had a watertight case against the hospital, but at that point we were coming back to the US in only a few months, and the time it would take made it futile, so we let the case lapse.
In addition I do not take kindly to being dictated to by a doctor’s office when and where I can get prescriptions renewed. I am the client, I am paying, they do it my way.
I admit that is only my experience, although my wife would tell you that preventative care for breast cancer for females is simply dreadful too.
NHS = Fantastic
Hannan = Sometimes hilarious, other times scary.
Gabble = LOL
“Conservatives for Palmer”
From last thread
The inference is that Brown said save my bacon for now and we will get you back in to parliament and then either PM after I go or opposition leader if I lose.
Was this all worked out over an evening meal?
I see the trade union leaders whose votes Mandy will need to get elected have awarded themselves 20% pay rises. Will Mandy criticise these fat cats?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5960724/Trade-union-leaders-receive-huge-pay-rises-despite-redundancies-and-salary-cuts-among-members.html
“Conservatives for Palmer — Because no-one bloody else will be!”
“Vote Palmer!
Remember his name:
The P stands for P45.”
“Nick Palmer - Eating his own feet at the whips’ behest since 1997″
“Vote Palmer - In a parliamentary party so lacking in talent that Bob Ainsworth became a Secretary of State, Nick hasn’t even got close to junior ministerial rank!”
I’ll lay off now, I’m sure Nick is really a lovely guy.
But really, Nick, don’t take us for fools. We’re really not.
OK, Tim might be. And maybe Ave It. Perhaps Martin Day. Gabble? There’s a chance.
But apart from that, we’re not fools!
36. Did you ever read Harry Hopkins diaries? The bit about how heart broken he was when Stalin turned up a Potsdam with an army of servants was hilarious - disappointed socialist at work….
Old Russian joke - “Capitalism is the exploitation of man by man. Socialism is the reverse”.
Terrific article, Dan! Very educational and interesting. It’s a shame that we in the UK don’t normally pay as much attention to South America as we do to North America. Politics there is at least as fascinating!
Man on Wire.
BBC2
Now.
Watch it.
40 I agree, for every canvas return Nick reports suggesting a swing in his favour plus converts, I have a little chuckle.
You cant blame him for trying to hold onto his seat, but Nick’s reports suggest Broxtowe is non typical, and there is no reason to suggest that.
Never trust a Socialist with our money. Ever.
Never trust a Socialist with our money. Ever.
Never trust a Socialist with our money. Ever.
Never trust a Socialist with our money. Ever.
Never trust a Socialist with our money. Ever.
(…repeat forever)
It’s called The Voters’ Mantra….
Eric Pickles: 17 more Conservative MPs will stand down because of expenses.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/02/tory-mps-quit-expenses
40. Ezio Auditore da Firenze August 2nd, 2009 at 8:58 pm
No i think NP is doomed to defeat!
No point rubbing his nose in it! Besides winfing the LDs up is so much more fun!
47 - as would be ‘winding’
48. Easy mistake to make!
D is next to F!
Strange, Nick Palmer encounters Tories who love Gordon Brown whereas every Labour voter I know thinks he’s a twonk of the highest order. Funny old world!
50. Robusticus August 2nd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Nick has a good sense of humour!
A very interesting article, about a part of the world I know nothing about. Many thanks.
FPT, I think that Harman borders on the unhinged. She does seem to believe that her hatred of men has electoral appeal.
43. Marquee Mark August 2nd, 2009 at 9:08 pm
Errr - the clips i have seen make my stomach turn on the Twin Towers.
“Winfing” is the specific act of winding up LibDems that their “Winning Here” strategy is at an end. As a hat-tip to multi-lingual Nick Clegg, it is a corruption of the Franglais expression “Winning? - FIN”
53 Stick with it (if not your dinner!). One of the finest documentaries you will ever see - and all the more poignant because of the Twin Towers…
54. Marquee Mark August 2nd, 2009 at 9:26 pm
Afraid i only speak English!
In my french GCSE exam i just put “sausages” down for every reply in the written paper. I had been put in the bottom set and learnt nothing! Only thing i failed!
53 - I ate at the restaurant on top of the towers (or one of them) on a couple of occasions. The food was good, the prices a bit high, the view spectacular!
Great article Dan, but I have to disagree with this part:
“that Lula was only denied an outright first round victory as a result of support for the avowedly Marxist candidate Heloísa Helena who left Lula’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) in protest at the party’s perceived move to the centre”
Lula was denied a victory in the first round because of a scandal that surged about one month before the election, in which a member of PT was found with 1 million reais and he didn’t know how to explain the origin of the money that was going to be used to buy a dossier against PSDB politicians. There were pictures of the money all over the press. Besides HH only got that percentage of the vote, because she is known as a fierce critic of the corruption in the Lula administration.
One thing that is not certain, is José Serra being candidate. There’s a possibility that Aécio Neves, Minas Gerais governor will be the PSDB candidate, for those who remember, something similar happened in 2006, when everyone was sure that Serra was going to be the PSDB candidate, but Alckmin got it in the end.
And finally, there is a tiny possibility that Roussef will not be candidate either. Medics found out that she has cancer, she is recovering, but she may not be fully recovered by the time of election. If she is not candidate, then we have Palocci, but things will be much more complicated, because PMDB may not be so interested in making a deal with him, as they do not know if he has any chance of winning and PMDB only supports those who can win.
Tim B (not the other one) August 2nd, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Maybe so but i think the bloke on the wire is certifiable!
And I’m sorry for the long post, I’m not really used to write that much here.
53 I recently found the brochure for when I visited the Twin Towers in 1987. Something to keep, I think.
Walking between them - utter, utter madness!
60 Don’t apologise - very good detail!
“Tory peer ‘pretended to live with mother for six years after she died to pocket more than £70,000 in expenses’”
“He claimed he lived with his sick mother in the Midlands until 2007, allowing him to claim overnight expenses while attending the House of Lords.
But the Sunday Times reported that his mother’s home was sold in 2001 - and she died in the same year.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1203802/Tory-peer-pretended-live-mother-pocket-expenses-years-died.html
63 - if you look back about 24 hours that was discussed on this site
Gabble = Yesterday’s news.
Ezio = King of the World
60 Me - good post - but why are you not following the football? Is it because they are losing 1-0?
66 - I think he already knows…..he posted it.
63. We will be glad to see the back of him anyway, he’s a one card trick pony anyway.
We still remember this episode:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-69970/Racism-row-hits-Tory-leadership-battle.html
66-Disraeli-Please don’t tell! I give up, my team is crap, I do not like Renato Gaucho, and now we are in the danger zone and I doubt we will leave.
I forgot to say: 11 games and zero victories.
Oh dear..
Result
South China 2-0 Tottenham
68, 63, It couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
50. For a period of time Gordon Brown was respected amongst Tories, it looked like his blurb about saving the world was being believed.
That has long gone though… My canvassing (i have done an awful lot in the last fifteen months, i have stood in four separate elections) has shown an increasing despair amongst tory voters, ‘we need to get brown out’ is a common response on the doorstep.
70 Me: Nice free kick by Paulo Baier, though.
I have to say that the coverage of football on globoesporte.globo.com is much better than the BBC gives in the UK.
25,33,34
Having recently been a ‘client’ of both the NHS and Private Health, I am not really overly enamoured with either.
There are many very good people ( Doctors, Nurses and Auxillaries) that work in both sectors. I do have a fantastic G.P ( when I can get to see him - two weeks waiting for an appointment).
NHS hospitals are chaotic and overstaffed with unsupervised inexperienced doctors in their mid-twenties.
Private hospitals are inefficient and penny pinching.
In both sectors many of the Consultants and Senior Doctors are up their own arses and also communication is a problem, as some of the staff’s English is not up to standard.
74-Disraeli-It’s good when Corinthians isn’t playing, because their bias is so obvious and boring. Things like “this is the best team” and “they are not used to losing” are repeated so many times.
A great article Dan!!
Have you seen mine today on Europe 20 years after the fall of Communism?
http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com/2009/08/02/europe-20-years-on
63. You posted, I believe, EXACTLY THE SAME news item a couple of days ago.
EXACTLY THE SAME.
Stop doing this: it is stupid, juvenile, and pointless.
Unbelievable!!!
I wish this French guy would hurry up and get on his f*cking wire. Yawn.
80, sorry to correct you, Mr T, but it’s actually ‘le wire’. Technically.
I made a glorious 88 pence backing Davydenko today. If Seppi hadn’t betrayed me by his refusal to win against Ferrero I would’ve made literally pounds.
78. SeanT: “You posted, I believe, EXACTLY THE SAME news item a couple of days ago.”
No. That was from The Times:
“Lord Taylor of Warwick claims £70k for home that does not exist”
“A TORY peer received more than £70,000 in parliamentary expenses by making claims that were apparently based on a “non-existent” main home.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6736141.ece
oh dear Gabble, oh deary me. Nurse!
82. Just stop it, you tedious adolescent twat.
75 - but as a consumer of US health care, it is better and cheaper than the UK.
That is by looking at the tax pay that goes to the NHS plus prescriptions.
For the employee it is typically ‘free’, for the family about $70 per month.
My 2 blood pressure meds cost me in total $8 - about 5 pounds - a month. What would 2 prescriptions in the UK cost? At least twice that. In addition I get to shop around for which store will give me the cheapest prescription price.
Several chains (Walmart started the trend) offer generics for $4 each. Does the UK do that?
82 - Yes yes Gabble, the first time you posted it, it was Times-on-Line and now the DailyMail-on-line, what a clever boy you are. Tit.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/08/01/marginals-poll-shows-big-tory-lead/#comment-1165378
84 - Even adolescents aren’t that bad.
I thought you’d find this amusing. My lovely other half was a little worse for wear last night and she gave it the ‘feeling hot and cold’ stuff today.
I’ve got her washing up now. Swine flu caused by gin!
Possibly the funniest football wrb page ever. This club has no shame…
http://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/history/history_honours.html
Read it and weep.
22: lol, mirthios
21 - that’s it, Tim. Sure, it’s possible to think of snags and risks, but one can protect elderly people to the point that they have no stimulus at all, and then declare them ’safe’ - but they’re not safe from deteriorating quality of life.
It was illustrated in a tragicomic way when I visited a home where they do allow pets. A woman who had sadvanced dementia was staring into space in an armchair, apparently oblivious. A visiting dog was brought up to her, and she emerged from her trance, looked dazedly at the dog, called it by another name, stroked it, and smiled. Someone said, “He’s called Scruff” and she said firmly, “He’s not a bit scruffy, he’s lovely.” Then a little later a cog slipped in her mind and she started stroking a furry object and talking to it. The point, I thought, was that this showed she was actually pretty far gone - and yet she’d had several minutes of lucidity and pleasure. Worth a bit of trouble in arranging it IMO.
6 - that’s why I voted it my #1 blog on Dale’s list thing. There’s no site quite like this.
*clips heels*
88 - that’s called “wine flu”!
GET ON THE WIRE YOU PRETENTIOUS FRENCH DILDO
92 You can’t hurry art…
“of course, we all thought - he could fall”
Well, yes, you UNUTTERABLY MONOTONOUS DORK
He’s on the wire! He’s on the bloody wire! Merci!
I’m sorry if tories don’t like to have the affairs of their peers subject to the same sort of scrutiny that Labour peers have undergone.
It appears there has been an effort to shut-down the story through a conspiracy of silence - I will not be part of it!
This is an important story and it is still developing. The Telegraph have fresh evidence:
“Lord Taylor of Warwick facing questions over parliamentary expenses”
Neighbours near Mrs Taylor’s former home in Solihull said the house was bought by a young couple shortly after she died.
Shirley Tovey said: “His mother lived in the top flat but he did not live there himself. I do remember seeing him come to visit her occasionally though.
“He has not lived there for eight years now, a couple moved in when the house was sold.”
Another neighbour, Pauline Taylor, added: “I remember seeing him years ago, but not on a regular basis.
“A man and wife have been there for a few years now, they moved in after Lord Taylor’s mother passed away.
“I used to see him visiting his mother at weekends from time to time, but the house was sold soon after she died.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5960823/Lord-Taylor-of-Warwick-facing-questions-over-parliamentary-expenses.html
96 - Gabble have you ever posted any links of James Gordon Brown and him claiming ACA all those years he lived in Downing Street?
Can I be 100?
98 - Yes
100!
100 - Well done.
99-Thanks! My team lost, PT may win the next election and Cabral will still be governor, I think I deserve at least this.
96. Relentless, embarrassing, selfish, immature, and bogus: Gabble you are New Labour incarnate. Congratulations.
100 - Congrats Me, you win a Brazilian waxing and a free laser harden wine-gum to through at a Labour politician of your choice.
Oh that’s cruel, releasing all those comments from moderation
Its not like we are running short of cash or anything….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8179565.stm
Another site is slightly suspicious of the motives
http://labourbollocks.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-to-blow-million-pounds.html
“I can’t help wondering if it’s just another way of stopping 500 more people signing on and making the unemployment statistics look even worse. But hey, it’s only a million quid.”
104. SeanT
You object because the peer in question is a tory. It’s pretty dishonest of you to pretend otherwise.
Sean T, wrt The Genesis Secret I was intrigued to learn that there really was/is a Cloncurry family (the title became extinct in 1929, but a family member is petitioning to reinstate it). Have any family members contacted you about their portrayal in the book?
I can’t believe they gave the Oscar to a film which is entirely about a man walking a tightrope between the Twin Towers which actually includes the remark:
“Of course, we all thought, he could fall.”
Or was it the Oscar for Lamest Bit of Non Editing Of A Stupidly Obvious Comment?
Next, a documentary about Scott of the Antarctic.
“Of course, we all thought - look it’s snowy.”
105-Simon-It seems that I haven’t won. Well, I’m used to that now!
106-Habib-I can add that to my list of misfortunes.
107, saw that the other day. F***ing insane, yet again. As mad as giving poor people free theatre tickets. It’s the moral equivalent of given those who haven’t enjoyed a carnal rendezvous recently a free night with a hooker.
97 - when you said “This is an important story and it is still developing. The Telegraph have fresh evidence:”
I assumed you were talking about this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/5962174/Criminal-Records-Bureau-errors-lead-to-hundreds-being-branded-criminals.html
“More than 1,500 people have been wrongly branded as criminals or mistakenly given a clean record by the government agency set up to vet those working with children, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.”
“The worsening figures are an embarrassment for the Home Office, which faced criticism after the number of errors by the bureau was first highlighted by The Daily Telegraph last year.”
Home office still not fit for purpose then………
110 They gave it the Oscar for perfectly capturing how much of an arse the French can be…
O/T Nick Clegg should thank his lucky stars he is not a native of Saudi Arabia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/5961124/Saudi-man-faces-death-over-TV-sex-boast.html
“The Conservatives have said on many occasions that they would stop the ID cards programme if they won a general election, and have written to suppliers CSC and IBM warning them of that.
But the Tories maintain support for biometric passports, for which there will be a database that contains similar information.”
http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/news/EC37D7E16982C4F4CC25760600717B22
Biometric Passports = ID Cards
Get over it.
85. Where on earth are you working that you don’t have to pay for health insurance out of your salary?
Where I’m working it’s $75 a month out of my paycheck. There are cheaper plans, but I have bad eyesight and want to see the dentist once a year, and this was the only plan that covered both a vision test and dental care. Since the plan only covers a vision test once every two years, next year I can switch to the cheaper, dental-only plan, because if my eyesight gets worse there’s nothing I can do about it til 2011.
I’m working a government job, so I have what is pretty much the pink Cadillac of health care plans. Elsewhere it’s more expensive and if you’re unemployed/working a non-permanent job it’s at least $200 a month. How you’re supposed to pay the $200 a month, I do not know, but that is what credit cards are for, I suppose.
115 - I’m so glad I didn’t take a job i was offered in Saudi Arabia a few years ago. I’d be fcuked, in so many ways.
108. It’s nothing to do with left or right. If there was some dick from the Tory party constantly posting the same spin or news I would be equally censorious. You are an illmannered boor, and it’s dreary.
Stop.
109. I deliberately chose real names which are associated with the Irish Hell Fire Club - Cloncurry, Luttrel etc. So far - ! - no one has complained, or even mentioned it. Indeed, you are the first to notice, until now….
119
Errr Martin Day, have you ever told him to p**s off?
117 - I’ve been in I.T. all my working life. I live in GA. I get $1k per year dental.
116, are you actually retarded? Do you carry your passport around all the time?
117 - I go to Costco for my glasses. No line bifocals, nice designer frames, transitions lenses and scratchproof coating about $250 including the opthalmologist fee.
117 Diane whereabouts are you?
119. SeanT
You sound like Gordon Brown claiming that the polls had nothing to do with the cancelled election.
You’re such a talented writer that it always comes as a surprise to re-discover just how insecure you really are.
116. If we didn’t issue biometric passports then UK citizens would not have valid passports. That doesn’t mean that an ID card, and the associated shared database, is a good idea. ID cards can piggy back on the passport, but they are not directly equivalent as you imply.
“Biometric Passports = ID Cards”
Gabble = F***ing Labour Liar
Gabble, if biometric passwords are ID cards, why does Labour need an ID card scheme.
119 So far as I can glean from the internet, the Cloncurrys were rather a dull bunch, and so their descendants might welcome your portrayal of them.
One family of Irish aristocrats who have a persistent streak of extreme behaviour running through each generation are the Guinesses. Did you have them in mind?
I just refreshed this page, and the beside the “Dan Hamilton takes an early look at Brazil 2010″ is an ad which says “brazilcupid.com Brazil dating and singles - find your brazilian beauty - browse photos now”.
Why am I getting a Mandy feeling?
“You sound like Gordon Brown claiming that the polls had nothing to do with the cancelled election.”
So you admit, Gabble, that there *was* going to be an election — until Gordon pooped himself at the sight of the polls?
“Hospitals face cash squeeze from Tories”
“Hospitals will receive less money for operations and treatments under Conservative plans to squeeze the NHS budget, The Times has learnt.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6736853.ece
130 - Because after a Brazilian, you get an irritating cnut. Ergo Mandy.
128. That is a fair point, after-all if Johnson is telling the truth that ID cards will never be compulsory, and if gabble was correct that they are equivalent then their would be no need for a separate ID card scheme. Johnson could simply say “get a passport if you want an ID card.”
Of course gabble is wrong and Johnson is fibbing.
116 Biometric passports are a requirement of the United States’ visa waiver program. There is a substantial difference between such a passport and an ID card. For a start, a passport contains less information and has fewer associated criminal sanctions, being outside much of the scope of the 2006 Identity Cards Act. Secondly, as other posters have said, passports will never be carried around by everyone nor is there a power to require people to do so. Passports =/= ID Cards QED
97
Its made the Mail as well.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1203802/Tory-peer-pretended-live-mother-pocket-expenses-years-died.html
I’m sorry it involves Taylor, he’s always struck me as a decent sort. I think everybody felt sympathy for him when a member of the Cheltenham Tory Party opposed his nomination by saying, ‘I dont want to be represented by a f**king Ni**er’ What was even worse was when that member was thrown out, some defended him, on the grounds of, ‘free speech’
123. I should have gone into I.T.! I assume you’re with a larger company–small business isn’t so generous.
I wear contacts, due to astigmatism and general blind-as-a-batness I have to get the more expensive kind. Insurance will cover some of the lenses, I just resent only getting a vision test covered every two years as I’m often stuck with a prescription that over the course of time becomes useless.
“128.Gabble, if biometric passwords are ID cards, why does Labour need an ID card scheme.”
Indeed! And why doesn’t Labour simply just subsidise in order to lower the cost of passports and so increase their uptake?
132 Hospitals will face a cash squeeze whoever is in power.
“Of course gabble is wrong and Johnson is fibbing.”
Gabble = Johnson = NuLab = b*llsh*tters
132 - proof you only read headlines:
“The party has promised to reinvest all savings back into the health service. Senior party figures told The Times that a plan to reduce the “tariff” paid by the Department of Health to hospitals for each procedure was under discussion. Currently each payment — £13,354 for an emergency cardiac valve operation, for instance — is based on the average cost of the procedure around the country. The Tories want to see this turned into a lower ceiling, with GPs and health commissioners encouraged to negotiate prices downwards.”
So what they actually want to do is pay the actual costs of these procedures, rather than an inflated sum that might be far too much. In other words, they want the NHS to stop being an inefficient cash cow and actually make every pound invested do something. This is a good thing, unless you happen to believe in Labour’s ‘throw money at everything’ approach.
132 - I read that NHS spending has doubled under the Labour government. I bet you could cut it by 1/3 and not notice a difference.
“Mandelson for next Labour leader: why not?”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article6736673.ece
Maybe hospitals would have more money under Labour if they weren’t pressing ahead with ID cards.
139 - Kinda of like this happening at the moment under a Labour government, and if you don’t like it you will have to pay to have it done privately.
Patients forced to live in agony after NHS refuses to pay for painkilling injections
The NHS currently issues more than 60,000 treatments of steroid injections every year. NICE said in its guidance it wants to cut this to just 3,000 treatments a year,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/5955840/Patients-forced-to-live-in-agony-after-NHS-refuses-to-pay-for-painkilling-injections.html
“Eric Pickles: ‘I don’t think it’s anywhere close to being in the bag’
Tory chairman reveals his election fears if Brown were to step down”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/02/eric-pickles-conservative-party
I think we need to get away from the idea that had Gordon gone to the country in 2007 he would have won. He would have been beaten. Gordon Brown would not win an election against a pet cat.
142 - Pay like this being frozen / cut would be a tiny start in the right direction,
NHS executive earns £60,000 more than Gordon Brown
The salary of an NHS executive has come under scrutiny after it was found he earned £60,000 more than Gordon Brown and holds a pension pot worth £2.4 million.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/5960995/NHS-executive-earns-60000-more-than-Gordon-Brown.html
“proof you only read headlines”
Gabble doesn’t “read”.
He regurgitates.
And that’s a generous description because I think it’s more likely to involve his other orifice.
149 - The Times piece is far from all negative from the Tories. They make it absolutely clear that spending will be tight whoever is in power, and the Tories seem like the only ones who are at least thinking about ways to make savings in some areas to reinvest in others.
150 - but we have low national debt. I remember, a weird man with a wobbly mouth said it. So why do we need to save money?
151 -
Where’s tim?
153-Sleeping?
153 - Baby keeping him busy I would guess.
154 With the fishes, hopefully…
I hear that Two Shags isn’t very happy about Harperson’s (in)equality plans for the Labour top-brass.
“As part of the National Identity Service, identity cards are being introduced alongside the UK passport. Both will include biometrics of your unique physical features (face and fingerprints), securing them to your biographic details (including your name, address, and date of birth).”
http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Governmentcitizensandrights/Identitycards/DG_174258
Biometric Passports = ID Cards
tories = lol
Gabble = twit.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article6736673.ece
158. I think my point went right over your head. Yes they use the same ISO card standard, and the National Identity Card follows the ICAO epassport recommendations but the associated database and the legal aspects of the scheme go far beyond the passport.
161 - You have to go slowly with Gabble, he is a bit thick! I mean who would post 10-15 links a night to newspaper articles and proclaim
“You can’t believe everything you read in the papers”
as a counter argument to something he didn’t agree with.
159 What I don’t understand is why does Gabble bother with his news archeology?
Over the last couple of days we’ve been treated to articles that were a) either ancient - c10yrs old, b) written by a 19 yr old student Lib Dem, c) ones where the content actually went on the support/confirm a positive Tory line and d) a cracker from a blog entitled something like the Workers Party criticising Tories - shock.
If Gabble is being paid for this trolling then there is clearly he’s being paid by the post only, if he’s doing it for free - then well…
163 - Gabble likes attention. Is simple as that.
163 - that extra glass of red is showing in the extra words my last sentence
there is = DELETE
What an excellent article. With this on PB1 and Richard Nabavi’s article on PB2, we are being exceptionally spoiled today.
164 - I have a sneaky suspicion that Gabble is an onanist.
Furthermore I suspect Jeremy Clarkson would not be one of his fans.
158. ID cards will be made compulsory shortly after being introduced, as you well know.
158 Gabble, my friend, you are missing the point. It is not the card which is the issue, it is the database, and the draconian legal penalties which the appalling government you support wish to impose on us. Oh, and the ludicrous cost, as well.
Under Labour’s disgraceful scheme, it will be a criminal offence not to inform the government of a change of address. For life: once on the register, it will be impossible to get off it.
Under the Tories’ sensible scheme for biometric passports, neither of these will be true.
Do you understand the difference?
137 - I tried contacts many years ago but just couldn’t be bothered with them.
168. MichaelK: “ID cards will be made compulsory shortly after being introduced, as you well know.”
Only if the public want them to be.
167 - I have that suspicion too
171 - Is that a bit like we will be guaranteed a referendum on any EU Constitution, I mean Treaty?
171 - “Only if the public want them to be”?
IS that the same way that the UK would only sign up to the European Constitution if the public had consented by way of a positive referendum, Gabble?
Your post there is right up there in the top 3 pieces of total bullshit ever written by you (and there’s serious competition for those places)!
173 - Does anybody else remember being asked if we wanted the Lisbon Constitution, I mean Treaty? I seem to remember old Tone giving a cast iron guarantee that, that we would only sign up for it if the public wanted it.
Perhaps Gabble would also like to tell me why I need to have any details stored on a central database, if I chose to forego a passport.
“Only if the public want them to be.”
Whether actively or passively, the public DON’T want them to be.
Because only Labour supports the scheme.
And Labour won’t have a majority after the next GE.
171 Gabble - Don’t be daft. As you may have noticed, I’m not a great fan of Labour, but even I don’t think they would be so stupid as to spend billions of pounds on a voluntary ID card scheme. What on earth would be the point of that?
In any case, if you need a passport, it won’t be voluntary even under the current proposals. And as I’ve pointed out, once on the register, you can never get off it, even under the present proposals. What is ‘voluntary’ about that?
gabble, how much data is stored on a passport compared to an ID card?http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4630045.stm
175 - You could not be more wrong!! The constitution was a radically reorganization of the European Thingy, whereas the Lisbon Treaty is merely —- Good Grief!!!! What have I been smoking???
To call Gabble a wanker would be an insult to a tradition dating back to Onan.
175. But that was Tony, surely we can trust Gordon “no more boom and bust, %0 rise, it started in America” Brown? Have you ever heard him tell a lie?
180 - radically = radical (but then you already knew that)….
Goodnight Gabble you f***wit!
182 - Close, glw. Close.
Quick edit…it should read…
“Have you ever heard him NOT tell a lie?”
On topic, what a great article. Dan, is there any chance of some follow-up pieces on this? I’d be very interested to read your thoughts as the race unfolds (though I think I’ll follow your advice and not bet on it).
gabble, I realise that your are thicker than a whale omelette so have probably still not managed to digest some of the longer words in the article, but do you genuinely believe that the passport and ID card require you to provide the same amount of data?
Gabble do you have a vag1na on your head? Please say yes, because there may be hope that someone could fcuk some sense into you!
maybe Gabble is going to tell us that the Neil Kinnock speech stolen by Joe Biden several years ago represents the latest in left of centre thinking….
182 - Well I remember something about an election that didn’t happen, but apparently that was just a misunderstanding.
Then something about nobody worse off after the removal of the 10p tax band, but again apparently the public got the wrong end of the stick.
Something about nasty smear emails sent from his SpAd working within a few feet of him, but apparently he didn’t see any of it going on
….
….
….
….
….
And of course he told ToeNails, “I never tell a lie”
I feel obliged to defend Gabble.
The posting of links to newspaper articles alleging abuse of parliamentary expense claims by Baron Taylor of Warwick is pertinent to the current political climate in the UK.
If the Conservative Party deems that Lord Taylor has a “questions to answer” in relation to such allegations, then we can expect immediate disciplinary action to be taken by the Party. This may include a demand that Lord Taylor pays back some or all of the “unacceptable” amounts claimed. It is even possible that loans to Lord Warwick may be provided or arranged to enable immediate repayments to be made. We may also expect Lord Taylor to be criticised in the mainstream press by the leadership of the Conservative Party, who will assure the public that a police investigation into the matter would be solely determined by the Metropolitan Police.
Gabble should further be commended for not stating that:
1. Lord Taylor of Warwick has never been a member of the Bullingdon Club; he was neither educated at Eton College nor Oxford University. He was however Head Boy at Moseley Grammar School and graduated from Keele University, later being called to the Bar.
2. John Taylor (prior to his enoblement) stood as the Conservative Party PPC for Cheltenham in the 1992 General Election, losing the seat to the Liberal Democrats who overturned a Tory majority of 5,000. Mr Taylor’s candidature was reported to have been “a matter of concern” to some local Conservative members and the Lib Dems were reported to have criticised the lack of his “local” credentials during the campaign. Cheltenham has been held by the Lib Dems since.
3. Lord Taylor was a son of an international cricketer who played for the West Indies. This begs the question of whether he would have passed the “Tebbit test”, although he later received the political support of Lord Tebbit himself.
4. John Taylor became the first black citizen to be made a peer by the Conservative Party at the age of 43. He has been critical of the right wing of his party on race relations and immigration policy, notably during the leadership of William Hague.
None of the above will of course will have any influence on the way he is being treated by the media or the Conservative Party.
174, 175, 178, 182
There doesn’t seem to be much faith in a tory victory at the next GE.
>> And of course he told ToeNails, “I never tell a lie”
and then picked his rapidly extending nose and produced a bogey so large it got a free drop on the golf course.
Pinnochio - lie some more, more more!!!
192 - Yup Gabble, It’ll be a miracle if the Tories dont have a net loss of seats at the next election.
Gabbles posting much more now Parliament isn’t sitting….
Gabble = Denis Mcshane. The evidence grows stronger….
Seth, the Taylor issue was done to death last night, as gobble well knows.
192 - but if Blair meets the Pope again, will it be a faith to faith meeting?
195 - I think someone should do a FOI request. One wonders if its a good use of parliamentary time and expenses
192 - There’s certainly no faith in good, fair or competent governance by the Labour Party.
Fortunately, this appalling nightmare of misfits masquerading as a government will soon be at an end.
gabble, have you read the link, or is your carer out of the room at the moment and you will have to wait for an adult to read out the big words? By the way you never did provide an answer to my question, is that because you are too thick or too embarrassed?
199 - by ’soon’ do you mean next June? If so, this is a use of the word ’soon’ that I’m not familiar with.
200 - You forget that Gabble, like his idol, Gay Gordon of Kirkcaldy, is incapable of answering a question. It’s either tractor stats or a completely irrelevant question asked of the initial questioner.
200 - his carer is out trying to find a catheter to expel all the piss and wind…..
So on the bombshell that gabble is both thick and embarrassed, I will bid you all goodnight.
P.S. gabble you are a skidmark on the sheets of life.
170. All vanity on my part–that, and I tend to sleep on my glasses, making them unfit for public display.
Oh, and I live around D.C., which might account for the higher cost.
“James Hall, Chief Executive of the Identity and Passport Service, said, “This contract will provide a secure database for storing facial and fingerprint images for the next generation of biometric passports and will support the delivery of the National Identity card.”
As Computer Weekly has previously reported, the UK passport and national identity card programmes have effectively been merged.”
http://www.computerweekly.com/Articles/2009/07/10/236853/ibm-to-build-database-of-uk-fingerprints-for-passport.htm
201 - The use of soon is all relative, Tim, although I recognise your point.
It’s been twelve years already so one more is not so bad (relatively - and taking note of the exponential worsening of the state of affairs during that year).
Also, I have the advantage of not having to live through or pay for the mess being made by Gordon and his gargoyles so it will not seem as long and drawn out a nightmare to me as to those others who aren’t in my lucky position.
I was once coached at cricket by John Taylor’s Dad (who incidentally taught Tom Cartwright to bowl. This last fact will mean nothing except to afficionados). I don’t think he played for West Indies though.
As is often the case we have a lefty on here heaping scorn on Tory policy, but the Tories heaping scorn on the poster as an individual.
205 I always take my glasses off before settling down for the night. My German Shepherd Heidi also sleeps on my bed and she is not so particular what she rolls over on, as any rambunctious 3 year old would be.
I used to live in the northeast - NJ and NY - and when I realized it was cheaper and warmer in the southeast - WITH air conditioning - there was no holding me back !
171. We both know they wouldn’t remain voluntary for 5 minutes.
gabble, do you even read the links you publish. The link I published lists 49 individual items of information that must be provided for the Id database. The link you provide at 206, just says the fingerprint and biometric facial details will be merged. All p1ss taking apart, you really are thick aren’t you? Why does your reading comphrension not allow you to understand they are fundamentally different? Was the majority of your education conducted under labour, or in a labour borough?
207 - “Also, I have the advantage of not having to live through or pay for the mess being made by Gordon and his gargoyles ”
I admit it was a bit tongue in cheek - are you also an ex-pat, like myself?
OT one of my cats has peed on my mini-notebook PC
Only half the keys now work, so off to look up a replacement part [again].
Why oh why do I share my house with these quadrupeds?!!
Good news is that I sold 3 today - YIPPEE!
*off to the Land of Nod*
213 - sold three cats??
214 Yup - I breed Maine Coons and in return they destroy my belongings - particularly those of an electronic nature = PCs, cordless phones, DAB stereos, any form of electrical wiring and of course - mobile phone chargers.
206. Oh God, you are either a wind up merchant or immensely thick. One organisation, but two purposes. Funnily enough it makes it harder to pick apart, I wonder why they did that?
212 - That I am, Tim. Although a fair bit further north and west than you. I used to live in Lawrenceville for a while so right in your current neck of the woods. In fact, my father still lives down there although he didn’t move there until after I had left but it gave a good excuse to head back that way from time to time.
d(too)
Perhaps you could be a little more precise about your concerns. What information do you think is being held on the database for an ID Card which is not being held for a Biometric Passport?
“Lord Falconer: People are fed up with the Government. We need to make changes”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/lord-falconer-people-are-fed-up-with-the-government-we-need-to-make-changes-1766553.html
209. TimB, that’s how it is with dogs on beds. You think you’re doing them a favour by letting them up there. The dog thinks “This is a great place to sleep but the ****** human takes up too much room.”
Health Warning: the following contains ComRes.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Labour-clings-to-slim-advantage.5516379.jp
217 - Lawrenceville is about 6 miles from me….
220 - she’s a rescue dog. We had awful separation anxiety issues for about 3 months, then she realized she’s home, she’s loved, and she’s got a sucker. We’ve been together for 2 years in october, and she was 15 months when I got her, from the pound with mange. She sticks to her side of the bed
Can anyone recommend any way of relieving chronic boredom?
(Apart from, obviously, posting and reposting various smears about tories and/or liberals)
215 - had a cat but when I got my German Shepherd (Heidi) he used to lie in ambush beside the sofa and leap out when she passed. So I told him he couldn’t treat my dog like an animal and gave him back to my ex, whence he came. Heidi had precedence right from the start. (She’s my 3rd GSD, but first female).
224 - onanism, watching Bond movies, reading Dr, Seuss books, self-castration, sudoku - it’s a long list….
221
That’s good reporting in The Scotsman. The four way competition for seats makes it a very different electoral landscape to England. Ideal for tactical voters but a nightmare for punters who don’t know the lie of the land.
224 enzio
I’d like an answer to that as well. I’ve started my penultimate night shift (hooray) and there’s nothing happening for a couple of hours.
What to do
What to do
168. MichaelK: “ID cards will be made compulsory shortly after being introduced, as you well know.”
Only if the public want them to be.
by Gabble August 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 pm
Who will decide what the public want? Another undemocratic talking shop to ‘measure opinion’? An opinion poll?
Under Labour it will be anything but a direct vote by the people to say what they want? Labour has spoken, direct elections of local officials and in referenda are ‘dangerous’. To whom we might wonder.
226 Tim B
I don’t think onanism would be appreciated as I’m in the office at the moment.
230 - don’t you have a handkerchief?
231
Yuck - anyway they go all crisp and crunchy
Blue rog, at least you can get yourself through this with the thought that you are getting paid for it!
233 True true - I really feel for people like Martin Day (I think) thos who have been made redundant due to the ‘wonderful’ policies of our current government
Count me in as one more bored. If we were in the same place, we could play cards. Sueca?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sueca_(game)
235 Me
Virtual bridge?
I’ll open 2 clubs
234 - let’s not forget poor Martin’s spandex and jogger fetishes
235 Me
I don’t beleive it (shades of Victor Meldrew)
The first dealer is chosen by the size of his manhood and the turn to deal passes to the left after each hand.
How do you check in tournament games
231 - I thought you’d wash it after a week or so to forestall this result
239 Tim B
Ohhhh so that’s where Ive been going wrong. Would this also eliminate the smell?
238-Blue Rog-
It’s a nice game, it is fast and does not make you bored and very played around here(Brazil).
241 Me
We’ve started playing solo whist in the pub at home. That’s also quite fast and for some reason the bids get sillier and sillier as the day goes on.
This bears out the Populus poll of MPs that I reported yesterday - quite a lot of MPs on both sides, including many untouched by scandal, are simply too fed up to continue.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/aug/02/tory-mps-quit-expenses
I tihnk there’s a subtle problem in this development, which isn’t a party one because the same is hpapening on both sides. Whoever forms the next government is going to have a core of trusted, familiar faces, and a mass of new faces. The temptation will be to rely heavily on the known quantities - it’s what happened in 1997, and for the initial appointments it’s inevitable. The danger is that the newbies will get left out for a long time, and will start to mutter about inner circles and cliques.
242-BR-We should try to play Risk on the internet some day.
243-Nick-One more bored?
243 NPMP
Basic management team building theory can minimise this effect. Unfortunately, with current politics (all parties), the number of MP’s with prior, relevant ‘real life’ experience is minimal and thus I doubt if any progress could be made.
This is also true in other public services where industrial HR practices and procedures that have improved the private sector have never been introduced. Therefore they (the public sector) are riddled with old fashioned X style management.
244 Me
We also play Risk in the pub - about 2 times a month. It’s generated a good following and great interest. I’ve heard about the online version but never played it.
We normally finish a game in about 4 hours, I suppose it could last for weeks online
246-Blue- It’s a great game, but I haven’t played the online version either. I play here sometimes too, although some of my friends are not so keen exactly because it takes a lot of time.
Well, if it takes weeks, it means we won’t be so bored!!
“Brown doesn’t mention the cooking of his wife”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/5960875/The-loneliness-of-Gordon-Brown.html
Crikey Brown eats his wife and not babies shock!
What is funny is Gordon Brown likes Brussel sprouts! No wonder he looks like he is going to explode all the time! Brussel sprouts can cause gut rot!
Nothing wrong with Brussel sprouts, although the wife does sometimes get band to the conservatory come boxing day.
248 Martin
Have you found a job yet?
250. Blue rog August 3rd, 2009 at 1:48 am
No, this country has little opportunity.
251. No, this country has little opportunity at the moment!
251 - Martin
Are you a journalist? I seem to remeber you mentioning that a while ago although I may be mistaken.
253. No!
Think you are mistaking me for some one else!
Front pages:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers—National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Monday-3rd-August-2009/Media-Gallery/200908115352378?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15352378_The_Papers_-_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Monday_3rd_August_2009
Just on a point of detail in the intro, Uribe amended the Colombian constitution so he could serve two terms; presidents were previously restricted to four years.
256-It was like that in Brazil too, until FHC changed everything with the support of the Congress. At the time he was accused of buying votes, but that’s normal around here.
O/T really p!!$$ed off now. Just been told that there’s unlikely to be much work done here tonight. What a waste.
everybody go sleep NOW!
259 Are we keeping you up big daddy?