Will the Craig Murray rules be applied to Esther?
July 28th, 2009
Or will the BBC give her “special treatment”?
During the Norwich North campaign one of the most disgraceful acts by the media was the way that the BBC decided that Craig Murray - the former British ambassador sacked for speaking out against torture - was not a serious candidate.
This was despite the fact that he’d held into his deposit standing against Jack Straw at the general election and that he’s built up a campaigning operation on human rights issues.
Alas this was to no avail for when the BBC covered the campaign he was relegated to the “also standing” category which meant that he was hardly featured.
So how are BBC bosses going to deal with the Craig Murray precedents when dealing with Rantzen’s candidature in Luton South? For some of the correspondence with corporation bosses that he got during the campaign might make it hard not to push Rantzen the into “also standing” slot.
Having spent a large part of my early career working for the BBC I’ve no doubt that they will find a way - but what they did to Murray stinks.
Perhaps the best illustration of how they got it wrong distinguishing between who they regarded as serious and who was not came in the BBC East debate between the NN candidates. Not only was Murray excluded but so was UKIP. - who eventually came in fourth. The Greens, the media favourite, were squeezed into fifth place.
Ladbrokes have Esther Rantzen at 4/1 for Luton South.
Mike Smithson
On PB Channel 2 now: Antifrank on “Labour polling: in ICM we trust?”
MessageSpace Advertising
She’ll have no chance..
To add: She’ll get lost in the noise of the the big themes going on, so should comparably get even less coverage than Murray should have done.
She’s no chance. Lost deposit territory. No doubt the BBC will do their best for her, but as the sleaze is from a Labour MP, they’ll be torn.
It was oh so different in Tatton.
FPT
377 PTP. Do you think Ms Rantzen is doing it for altruistic reasons…. high profile?? she might get some publicity, but high profile.. I don’t think so.
by Maggie Thatcher Fan July 28th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
OT - re 2: Interesting article from Antifrank.
4 Just looking at it from a betting viewpoint, MTF.
I maybe reading this wrong, but I reckon she’s value at 4/1.
FPT (but on topic)
377 - I agree with you that Esther Rantzen’s national profile in exactly the right area (campaigning issues) must give her an excellent chance of success if she manages her campaign with any degree of efficiency.
I really can’t get the animosity to her. In what way does she exceed normal politicians in her vanity and self-publicity? And she has achieved far more in public reforms than any of her rivals will have.
I just don’t know what she’s achieved, in her previous career, other than exhibiting phallic vegetables, and dogs that say “sausages” if you strangle them.
And I very much hope that the Murray rule (anti-Murray rule) is applied to Esther too - then she will have something else to campaign about.
The way the media ran with their own predetermined agenda in NN (as Nich Starling has highlighted) was a disgrace. Not just the BBC of course.
She’ll be lucky to hold her deposit imho.
Standing on an anti-sleaze ticket in a constituency were the sleazy have already departed, erm ?.
An ex- celebrity unknown by 65s and not particularly popular by those in between.
She will however get good coverage from supportive media luvvies, but as the ex incumbent was Labour, I doubt the Beeb will push it.
IMO, she is a silly women that most serious voters will ignore.
From previous thread….
367 Erm…Sean Fear, would you like to quote me odds against her saving her deposit?
Think very, very carefully before answering.
[Oh, and Councilhouse Tory at 3, I offer the same self-interested invitation to your good self!
]
The Beeb will look after their own. She’ll get massive coverage, right up until the legal requirements kick in.
I just hope she gets trumped by an even bigger name standing. In the light of Marf’s cartoon, Freddy Flintoff, perhaps? “We want Freddy for our leader…”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoVM6Y0WHD0
8 - I’m sure Ms Rantzen can supply a more comprehensive list, but among other things, she campaigned for better safety in black cabs, set up Childline and campaigned for greater understanding of M.E. - those are real achievements, whether or not you care for her style of consumerism.
10 Keep them coming!!!!!!!!!
How many PBers are willing to offer me odds on this ‘lost deposit’ thing? You all sound very confident.
6
Far be it for me to comment on value betting, but just remember Ms Rantzen will be under the spotlight as never before. Ok she has the training to be on TV, but to answer all those difficult questions that are going to be thrown at her, and we don’t even know yet what platform she will stand on.. apart from the anti sleaze /I’m not like them ticket..
I think it is a very strange thing for her to do!
Does she not realise that she will have to compete against several high quality leaflets from Tory/Labour/LD compared to her likely photocopied A4! Highly impressive. Added to that the usual marginal GOTV and she has no chance! It would not surprise me if she queitly pulls out in a few months time!
8: Well there is Childline of course. But even so, I simply just don’t see the point of her standing? There’ll be a new MP as MM is standing down..so job done surely?
FPT..378. Meandyew. Me and you.
Well you certainly aint me, and yew are a pr*ck.
FPT 351 archroy. I refer you to Easterross @ 375.
And wow what a comment !!
Perhaps Easterross you’d like to legislate against these infernal Independent candidates - such a nuisance and clearly the voters can’t be trusted to determine their future. And then any non vetted party will be blocked and holy cow we can then all go and live in Iran !!
Did you take more than one of those chill pills I’d advised for you !!
What happened to UKIP was far worse, given that they are a well established party with elected representatives rather than just a random loon. I think OGH has perhaps let his personal biases creep in a little here in highlighting Murray’s case…
I will always remember the Not the 9 O’Clock News parody of That’s Life. Whatever the issue, it came down to:
“We phoned the Gas Board”
“They said ‘This really has got absolutely nothing to do with us’”
“Cyril”…
The “We phoned the gas board” line is one of those I use at random times, along with “That would be an ecumenical matter”.
It’s going to be terribly difficult for the BBC luvvies, Do they follow their institutionalised lefty instincts and favour the “done nothing for 12 years” candidate, or support one of their own? Look forward to a 5 minute, “fancy that?” coverage every day (in response to the criticism over Norwich North, of course) in which all the fringe candidates will be interviewed, but only Esther will be treated seriously and allowed a sound-bite in every edition.
The expenses scandal will surely have run it’s course by next year so it’s unlikely she’ll gain many votes. Few other seats would have been as winnable, for instance she could have stood in Sleaford and North Hykeham (Hogg’s seat) but clearly the Tories would easily win that. She should have announced to stand before Morran stood down, now no one really cares.
15 Nobody’s infallible, MTF, and your guess is as good as any, but since I (and Antifrank) seem to be in the minority around here, I thought I might get some decent odds.
It is a betting Site, isn’t it?
Trust the BBC to run a programme and article on the little known (fact?) that Germans of East Germany lament the fall of the wall.
They probably lamented the fall of Hitler too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/business/2003/small_business/8171116.stm
I posted this before, but not a comment.
Wikipedia’s biography is one that Esther Rantzen’s rivals will struggle to match:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Esther_Rantzen
“That’s Life! ran on BBC One for 21 years, (1973 to 1994), becoming the most popular show on British television, reaching audiences of more than 18 million. During that time it moved the traditional role of the consumer programme from simply exposing faulty washing machines and dodgy salesmen, to investigating life and death issues such as a campaign for more organ donors, featuring Ben Hardwick, the two-year-old dying of liver disease, whose only hope was a transplant, and the investigation of a boarding school owned by a paedophile, who employed two paedophile teachers… The programme popularised the term “Jobsworth” in England by creating “The Jobsworth Award” for any official who insisted on applying a daft rule beyond the bounds of reason, such as clamping the car of a woman in labour in a hospital car park (because they would claim that “it’s more than my job’s worth not to do it”). New laws were introduced, such as the law enforcing the use of seat belts for children sitting in the backs of cars, as a result of their campaigns. And playground surfaces were dug up around the country, the dangerous tarmac and concrete being replaced with safe surfaces.”
20: The BBC have a high challenge to them regarding UKIP and to a much lesser extent the BNP. They are now getting to the point where they deserve to be considered at a higher level than the greens, and challenging the Lib Dems at a certain level.
Sorry to be Ageist, but I wonder how many people under 35 have ever heard of Esther Rantzen. Why would thay vote for her, and why in particular does she want to fight Luton South, now that the sitting MP has gone?
This is going to be a nine days’ wonder. A few inces of newsprint filled fairly easily, but no change to the staus quo. She is not a Martin Bell or a Kidderminster Doctor. She is not even a craig Murray, although in my opinion that might be in her favour.
Just because WE don’t like Esther Rantzen (and I think it’s fair to say that 99% of pb.com regulars can’t stand the woman) doesn’t mean that the voters of Luton South won’t. We’re not really a representative sample of the population. Quite a lot of people voluntarily watched That’s Life. I don’t think she’ll trouble the leaders in Luton South but I think she’ll save her deposit. Not sure who she takes votes from - my guess is from those who’d otherwise cast a protest vote i.e. everyone but Lab and Tory in Luton South.
8 - Her work with Childline means that she certainly doesn’t deserve the vitriol which seems to being poured on her by the PBC community. I think her campaigning record might well mean she surprises a lot of people. I’d happily take anyone’s bet that she won’t save her deposit!
26 I’m afraid I hated That’s Life.
23. I’d be interested in some odds on her name not actually featuring on the ballot paper when the election comes.
28.She was that woman off I’m a celebrity…get me out of here.
I think if you went up to 100 random people and ask for a celebrity with the christian name Esther a majority would say Rantzen.
So how are BBC bosses going to deal with the Craig Murray precedents when dealing with Rantzen’s candidature in Luton South?: Mike Smithson
In this case I believe that Rantzen more than a little support.
Mainly because she still has friends in high places in the BBC hierarchy.
31 So did I, SeanF, but I’m not letting it cloud my judgement.
You are, by common consent, one the sanest and soundest posters on PB, a former Poster Of The Year, no less. Yet I suspect you are just the tiniest bit peeved that La Rantzen is intervening in a seat which otherwise might have been a nice little gain for the Tories.
Are you sure your irritation isn’t just getting the better of your judgement here?
PtP FPT, I think Ester will - if she goes for a child welfare ticket - keep her deposit and come in with a couple of thousand votes purely on notoriety.
She was 5th in ICGMOOH [don't worry - I don't watch it and resorted to Google!] so doesn’t have even the gungho charms of Carol Thatcher.
I can’t see why she’s standing at all except for vanity/career resuscitation reasons - as she’s pushing 70 (DOB June 1940) even that seems rather odd.
34. Errata.. In this case I believe that Rantzen will get more than a little support.
Perhaps we could nominate Luton South as the “All-Comers Political Face-Off Celebrity Death-match. Get Trisha to stand. And Jeremy Kyle. Ulrika. Susan Boyle. C’mon, Kerry Katona. That Bloke from Blur. Peter and Jordan. The Ghost of Michael Jackson.
What a declaration that would be… “Hello!” would just have to buy the rights….
The BBC are going to give her all the help they can give, unlike Craig Murray or UKIP in Norwich North. This will probably be enough to give her a reasonable performance as an ‘others’ candidate. She could be another Martin Bell, though he had just come strait from the evening news so his media profile was still huge, whereas she has been out of the limelight for a while. Also Martin Bell was standing against a Tory and Esther is standing against Labour so the BBC has less incentive to help her than Bell. I think I will just keep pumping money into safer bets at the moment.
FPT - Is Craig Murray of Uzbekistan and Norwich North the same one who is lecturing on Out of Body Experiences and Near Death Experiences at the Society for Psychical Research?
36 Thanks Plato. That’s a far more balanced judgement than many I have been reading this morning.
Pushing 70, eh? Saw her recently at Lingfield races. Not bad for 70.
Esther Rantzen…
After she’s done Strictly.
After she’s done I’m a Celebrity…
What’s left?
Dancing on Ice, Celeb BB or the General Election Show?
I guess I am really cynical. An ego coming to a TV set near you.
28 Augustus. You’re correct. “She is not Martin Bell or a Kidderminster Doctor”
She is far far more famous than either and she’s had a free run locally of huge publicity. Again leading the local news today. She’ll be a huge novelty for the media during the election. She may not win but those thinking she’s heading toward lost deposit territory are in cloud cuckoo land !!
Moran’s majority was around 5600 and she is not standing.
Will a Rantzen candidature muddy the waters sufficiently to allow a clean Labour party candidate to take the seat?
In a General Election campaign, unless there is a group of “odds and sods” from the world of so called celebrity, she will frankly be ignored. Even Martin Bell got limited publicity and he was standing against a Government minister associated with the name Al Fayed which in itself makes it a media story.
Personally I liked That’s Life, I admire her work with Childline but I would like to see her expense account at the BBC opened up to see what she thought the taxpayer should stump up for.
Guys, so far only Richard Nabavi and I have commented on an excellent piece by Antifrank at PB2. If it is to work and those of us who have written threads are to bother posting them then you guys need to read them and share your thoughts on them.
Also, I seem to recall that Private Eye had quite a lot of stories about ER (as I think we might now call her) most of which suggested that she was nigh on impossible to work with. I think it was Paul Heiney (Mr. Libby Purves) who was once reduced to tears as her assistant because of her unreasonable behaviour. I don’t suppose that Private Eye will be backwards in coming forwards with more of the same.
Also Victor Lewis Smith regularly used to regale his readers with unfavourable stories about her, but we don’t hear much of him these days.
43 - And I think most are now realising it being that no-one has taken up the offered money.
44 - It will certainly not hinder them. I see Labour holding on here due to Rantzens involvement.
Rantzen does not deserve to get more than her fair share of publicity but the BBC needs to work out how it deals with minor candidates and also parties like UKIP who were disgracefully neglected in Norwich North.
46 Please VLS stand. Your country needs you!
PtP.
Well, I am already on win if she stands. I have taken some of PaddyPower’s 9/2 if she wins. I also already have a voucher for a Tory win. I too would be interested in odds of her NOT reaching the ballot paper to complete the set
and I do hope she does not get elected.
BTW, any tips for Goodwood?
48 - You’ve changed your tune quickly!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/07/28/whos-got-the-biggest-afghan-problem-dave-or-gord/#comment-1160442
You just need to predict that her intervention will benefit the Lib Dems and you’ll have completed the set.
Live news conference with Esther on sky now
43 “She may not win but those thinking she’s heading toward lost deposit territory are in cloud cuckoo land !!”
Yes, Jack, and I think they realise it. I’ve been trying desperately to elicit some betting on the matter but not one brave soul has come forward to match words with money.
What’s her program for crying out loud?
The sleazy MP is standing down - so what the hell is she going to run on?
The only effect this could have is fooling some anti-Labour voters that she’s in with a chance because of her celebrity and depriving an opposition party (most likely the Tories) of a majority.
With any luck she’ll quietly announce her intention not to stand in a few months time - perhaps around the Conference season.
And just on a brief aside - how in God’s name do you determine who’s going to be Prime Minister and form a government if 650 Independents are elected?
Comparisons with Craig Murray are not very useful. It is very different in a by-election; Ms Rantzen wil be standing in a General Election, so she’ll be one of thousands of candidates in 650 seats. Electoral coverage will be mainly at the national level: Brown (or Johnson) vs Cameron.
Of course, locally in Luton she will get a fair whack of publicity, and she is a very well-known name (though maybe less so for younger voters).
Overall, I’d say she’ll easily keep her deposit, simply on name-recognition grounds (which counts for a lot). But I’d be surprised if Peter the Punter spoils Shadsy’s 2010 Xmas party.
Someone should stand as an Anti-Rantzen candidate – Simon Heffer, maybe……?
51.LOL
This is going to be more like Martin Bell’s second attempt to stand than his first, ie mis-targeted. Bell could have stood against any one of many sleazy New Labour people in 2001 - Keith Vaz would have been a good target, but chose an obscure tory seat for bizarre reasons. Rantzen could have chosen any of the seats where the incumbents aren’t standing down - Salford for example.
45 Easteross. You thought Martin Bell got “limited publicity” in the 97 election ??
What election were you watching ??
58. I agree. Rantzen vs. Blears would have been far more interesting, and no doubt worthwhile.
51. Brilliant Antifrank
46 And the readership of PE is ? As one of their ‘cancelling their subscription’ on the basis it is boring and unfunny I can’t see their views changing the outcome in Luton!
45 I remember an episode of TL when viewers has been sending in bizarre postal address details - the one she showed was a postcard [could it be anything else!] with a huge toothy grin on it and nothing else.
The Royal Mail must have loved that one
58 - Salford? More than ten minutes down the M1.
VLS may just have died under the weight of his own weird dreadlocks… His Wiki doesn’t have much that is recent - although it did remind me of this (which I used to have, back in the day)
“Lewis-Smith’s prank phone calls include:
Calling the office of That’s Life!, and speaking to Adrian Mills, pretending to be a euphonium player in a wheelchair, who then collapses while trying to play the “Sailor’s Hornpipe” at extreme speed down the phone. (Lewis-Smith appears to have a particular loathing for Esther Rantzen.)”
It was really rather funny!
journalist: Margaret Moran has gone why are you standing?
Rantzen: “It’s more than a protest, it’s a glimpse of a vocation, when I came to Luton South they said Margaret Moran didn’t answer letters, was inaccesible”
She’s an ambition lady (nothing wrong with that), who sees a 2nd career opening up (nothing wrong with that), & she’s using the expenses issue to try and propel her way into it (typical politician!)
I think if Moran were still running, Rantzen would have a chance. But there seems little point now.
The labour candidate will deal with Ms Rantzen by being very nice to her, I’m sure. What a nutty lady.
I think you’re quite wrong on Craig Murray, Mike, and the result tended to suggest the BBC got it right in treating Murray as a fringe candidate.
Murray picked up 2.8%. Now it’s true that this is partly self-fulfilling, but only to a small extent. In a by-election the BBC is one of quite a number of sources of information for voters. The local press, leaflets, canvassing and word of mouth all play a major role - each one in excess of a single (large) national media player. Murray was way behind even the fifth placed Greens, and only a handful of votes ahead of a racist pretend vicar (who was equally correctly sidelined as a fringe candidate).
The people who have some cause for complaint are surely UKIP, who genuinely were underestimated.
On coverage of Rantzen, it may be she gets more than she deserves, but I doubt it will be very substantial even then. Bell was a very popular BBC figure (far more so than Rantzen who is out of favour) and got big coverage in Tatton. But even he was effectively ignored in Brentwood in 2001, the media (including the BBC) judging it too complex and frankly too dull a story to cover extensively. Rantzen is effectively standing against an MP who isn’t herself a candidate, and the pure drama (the equivalent of the Battle of Knutsford Heath or whatever it was dubbed) really won’t be there.
Will the Tories (and the rest) stand aside for Esther? Otherwise comparisons with the man in the White suit are overdone. Also would Martin Bell have stood if the Hamiltons had gone? No. She is somthing else.
Vote Anyone but Esther!
45. Easterross. Martin Bell was Alistair Campbell’s favoured candidate for Tatton.
51 - I said could, not would.
I have since been to UKPOLLINGREPORT.CO.UK and read up a bit on the seat there. It is the arse end of Luton (and that is saying alot) I now see this as a Labour hold.
I bet between now and the election you, and many others, will change your views on seats.
50 Scott P
This thread is ample evidence of the number who come here just to talk up their Party rather than bet, or even engage in serious betting discussions.
Goodwood? Tricky day but I fancy….
2.45 Tactic 12/1 ew
3.25 Oukbar 6/1 ew
4.00 Msr Chevalier 4/5 ought to win but Archer Road 16/1 and Totally Invincible 16/1 are good ew alternatives.
4.35 Rajeh 11/1 ew [Nap]
5.10 No selection but the draw heavily favors high numbers
5.45 George Benjamin 5/1 ew
I must warn you though that my form hasn’t improved since Newmarket.
70. It’s amazing how many people still think ‘the man in the white suit’ really was an independent candidate.
53 PtP. Not too shocked that you’ve not been overwhelmed with offers !!
I think many of our Blue brigade can see a tasty Con Gain Luton South going down the pan. And poor old Sean Fear could have the Rantz as their MP. Almost as delicious as Ave It having a Lib Dem MP in Watford !!
I may even chuck a few quid in the Rantzen campaign pot !!
59 Jack,
During the election campaign itself he got only as much as his opponents,often by gatecrashing Neil Hamilton’s events.
There will be far more interesting contests in the GE than Luton south. I happen to think her intervention will make a Tory victory in the seat more likely rather than less.
I just do not consider the running of the country to be suitable to be treated as a gimmick which is what this woman is doing. Had Margaret Moran remained that would have been a different thing.
I agree with others, had La Rantzen been serious she would stand against Hazel Blears
It is a touch ironic that two big victories over the Tories, the man in the white suit in Tatton and the defection of Woodward in Witney paved the way for Osborne and Cameron.
Note to Tories be careful rocking the boat too much, creating useful vacancies, in safe Labour seats.
Will her former That’s Life sidecick Doc Cox (aka Ivor Biggun) be writing her campaign song?
74 Your and your ARSE could be the endorsement that propels her into Parliament, JackW….
70 - That’s hardly a surprising statement is it, Sunil? The Lib Dems and Labour each stood their candidates down explicitly in order to back Bell. So he was at the very least the choice of the local parties in each case, and realistically that of the national parties.
74 Absolutely, young Jack!
Poor SeanF. Ah well, as somebody once said: ‘That’s Life!’
So who will be the first to run with
“ESTHER GETS HER TEETH INTO LUTON!”
Interview with Esther coming up on Sky News…She’s got name recognition alright.
Sky seem to be covering Esther whereas the BBC are indifferent to it.
83 Beeb caught between unstoppable force (”one of our own”) and immoveable object (Mandy telling them to “leave it alone!”)
Independent candidates tend to attract the anti-establishment vote that are not attracted to any political party. If a candidate is standing on a protest to hurt the incumbent he or she tends to syphon off votes from the opposing candidates too. Since Moran withdraw her reason for standing in that seat has been weakened. She has every right to stand as we all do. She might attract votes from people of my generation but she will be relative unknown to a lot of younger people brought up after he TV departure. If she gets unfair coverage from the BBC over the other candidates, they would have a cause for grievence. I think she would save her deposit.
Sir Norfolk:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Bell
The Labour and Liberal Democrat parties withdrew their candidates in Bell’s favour in a plan masterminded by Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s press secretary.
75 - Tend to agree that it is worth betting on the Tories to win Luton South. Rantzen is more likely to appeal to disaffected Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to vote for one of the other candidates.
76 - Both would almost certainly have been elected in 2001 in other constituencies, one suspects.
85 - withdrew - not withdraw
Burley: Why Independent
Rantzen: I’m a floating voter, I have voted 3 different ways over the years
Rantzen: I’m told that winning is impossible.
Burley: What are the main issues for you?
Rantzen: Luton hasn’t been properly represented for a long time…
Burley: You’ve had a very privildged life
Rantzen: yes, but that’s life…got me to meet many, and learn to empathise. I’ve spoken to Glenda Jackson for advice.
75 Easterross. We’re clearly at odds on this and unreconsilable.
One other little point about general elections at times of crisis. Do you recall the number of Independent candidates and winners during World War II ??
No greater dark days than those.
78 MM. A lovely thought, kindly meant !!
Somebody, somewhere, is going to have some details on Rantzen’s BBC expenses.
“Sed quis custodiet ipsos custodes”, what?
68 I initially had some time for Craig Murray but after seeing/reading more from him - I decided he was a bit of a crank.
OT Ester will have good traction with older voters [of which she is one] who recall her as a very solid campaigning type and ChildLiner.
She’s a-political right now and so it will be interesting to see how other party candidates treat her - nice as pie I suspect…
If she comes out as the older voters’ cause celebre by gunning for better pensions/care home funding/IHT/granny rights to see kids etc - then I think she has a good chance of splitting the vote all over and creating a minor GE oldsters agenda hiccup.
I don’t know Luton S demographics - perhaps a PBer who knows the area can shed some light on this?
“I’ve spoken to Glenda Jackson for advice” - you couldn’t make it up!
Burley to Rantzen: “hopefully you’ll let us come up and spend the day with you campaigning”
86 - And? Campbell supported Bell’s candidature as did most Lib Dem and Labour politicians. I am not clear what point you are trying to make with that - it doesn’t mean Bell was in Labour’s pocket as an MP.
The fact Moran has gone changes things a lot. Surely Esther could have chosen a different seat? Having done I’m A Celebrity … won’t help - not because of the notoriety (BB hasn’t destroyed Galloway) but because it might seem like she’s just another celebrity trying to resurrect her career.
I’ve always thought she was a pretty good broadcaster when I’ve heard her interviewing people on radio, but when she was on Question Time recently, she seemed a little unconvincing. Proof perhaps that it’s a different game when the boot is on the other foot. I’d disagree that she isn’t known to under 35’s. Under 25’s maybe. All in all I can see her saving her deposit, but but winning unlikely.
4/1 is probably fair.
91 - Not going back all that far. Rantzen has done little for the BBC in recent years and all large organisations have a routine document destruction policy for older administrative materials (mainly for data protection reasons).
86 The Lib Dem equivalent to Alastair Campbell was Bill le Breton, one of their ALDC local government strategists.
Putting aside personal feelings about Rantzen (she does nothing for me), she is a completely different proposition to Craig Murray in electoral terms. Virtually no-one in this country knows who Craig Murray is (and I suspect his media neglect was mostly due to lack of name recognition). Nearly everyone has heard of Esther Rantzen - That’s Life is of course ancient telly history, but Childline deals with issues that are only too relevant now. Being well known and non-aligned politically should boost her significantly. It won’t be Tatton for sure, but I wouldn’t write her off.
61. How about a new policy? Tough on Meandyew - tough on the causes of Meandyew.
89. Not a good start, is it? Still it’s getting her on the telly which is presumably the important thing.
Can you name another candidate in Luton South?!
Have Labour even chosen their replacement for Moran yet?
100 runnymede - Yes, but too early. Her standing as a candidate is news today; it will be very old news by May 2010. I can’t see her being able to keep up the momentum.
96 And that’s a fair assessment, Frank.
If her cause were as hopeless as many here have suggested, young Shadsy wouldn’t have her at 4/1. Sadly, many of those who pontificated on the matter headed for the hills when I mentioned money. Shame. Those of the ‘lost deposit’ persuasion could have got good odds from me.
99.Never come across that poster before, but my goodness he’s annoying.
100.She’s a contender, which is a shame as Luton South was a shoe-in for the Tories.
I’m rooting for this fella to stand against her:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZUJMaklTfVE/SKx-Hp72sOI/AAAAAAAAABI/XKeaHAzX0mg/s320/dr_teeth.jpg
Vote for Dr. Teeth!
100 - Anyone who seriously thinks ER is doing this to ‘get on telly’ is mad. The one thing she has never struggled to do it be on telly. I think only Bruce Forsyth has had a more consistent TV career than Rantzen.
I just think she thinks she can be better than Moron was. Does anyone really think she wouldn’t be?
Spare us from these wretched celebs. It’s enough to make me want to ditch democracy in favour of technocracy.
81 - I do not see why the debate should be reduced to personal remakrs about her looks.
95. Oh come on Sir Norfok - the whole Bell anti-sleaze campaign in Tatton was masterminded by Campbell who scouted for a candidate and came up with Bell. Campbell himself writes about it with great self-satisfaction. (and typically Gordon Brown claims it was his idea!). Once elected Labour had no further use for Bell - he’d done the job he was chosen for, and could then be a free agent. (Labour hardly needed his vote after their landslide). The tiresome pretence there was anything independent about the Tatton wheeze should have had its day long ago.
105. Nah, Clare Balding should!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1167902/BBC-presenter-Clare-Balding-humiliates-Grand-National-winning-jockey-jibe-crooked-teeth.html
107, a morrisocracy would be better.
Possible serious fun in F1 - there’s an off-chance Schumacher (Michael, not Ralf) might temporarily replace Massa.
PtP
I said she will be in lost deposit *territory* and she will. 7% is lost deposit territory. But if turnout was low, then the 5% threshold isn’t that high, so not worth the bet. I’ll be absolutely astonished if she gets over 10%. (see following).
Jonathon
Don’t worry about the tories (or the LDs) standing aside. They won’t. In fact both see Luton S as a potential gain and the recent elections seem to confirm this a 3 way marginal. This isn’t Tatton.
Jack W
The tories are looking at this as a gain and historically Luton S has been a bellwether seat. But demographics have changed and from the outside this looks a seat for Labour to lose. I can think of seats which require double the swing that I’m more confident of.
archroy
So she’s got advice from Glenda Jackson has she. Well I’m more confident Labour will lose Jackson’s seat than Luton S. In fact I think Jackson is looking at third. But then media luvvies got to stick together.
29 Cookie, can you post a link to the survey please?
The one saying that 99% of PBers “can’t stand Esther Rantzen”.
I think she’s great!
Rob
98 - Bill has become a bitter angry ranter on Libdemvoice. Shame really.
As for the comment about Watford. I expect Sal Brinton, after the foul Tory campaign, to win there althopugh it will be close.
102. Richard - that wasn’t really what I meant…
106 But it was never going to be Moran anyway. Good luck to her, but if she was going to make a point, there are better places to make a point. And if she wanted to get into Parliament, I’d suggest that there are better seats to stand. Somewhere in north London perhaps?
106 You are plain wrong.
ER getting on both Strictly and I’m a Celeb, suggests some longing to get on the box. I’m a celeb esp. tends to attract those on the wain, not least the Hamiltons.
I can think of about 60 million people who would make a better MP than Esther.
Vote Anyone but Esther.
103 What odds would you give against her failing to retain her deposit (including not actually standing)?
Forgot Sir Norfolk
Bell against Hamilton was masterminded by Alastair Campbell. He even writes about in his memoirs. Tatton was no accident and no victory for independents.
True independents can be found in Kidderminster and Blaenau Gwent. You don’t hear much about that now, do you? Wonder why?
113 - well maybe Mike could put one of his polls up on a slow day?
I was just extrapolating from the comments on the previous thread. And also using that most well-used and reliable of political predictions: generalising from myself.
112 So quote me some odds, Councilhouse - for 5%, 7% or 10%, I don’t mind.
Come on, show us your money!
Well, there’s a close precedent - Kilroy-Silk. He was as well-known as Esther when he stood for Erewash in 2005, and it’s no secret that Labour were seriously alarmed. However, people actually reacted against the idea of a celebrity parachuting in against a good local MP, and she ended up with (IIRC) an increased majority in a year that was generally poor for Labour. I think this sort of candidate can do well in a by-election if they don’t seem too flaky, but in a GE they fade.
weathercock at 25: the article doesn’t actually say East Germans lament the end of the wall, just that employment in the area has got harder with the decline of one particular complex. That said, there does seem to be a fair-sized minority who feel some nostalgia, since the ex-communists regularly poll close to first place in the former eastern provinces - see e.g. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm
I think if you quizzed their voters you’d get a differentiated view - not many would want the dictatorship back, but they probably see it as a more secure time economically.
svejk on the last thread: sorry, but I don’t usually respond here to the ‘what do you have to say about policy X, Palmer?’ queries - this isn’t http://www.asknickpalmer.com. Move to Broxtowe and I’ll answer anything you like, of course.
112 - I do not see this as a 3 way marginal, on the notionals we are 5.5% behind the Tories and about 20% behind labour (Ukpollingreport.co.uk).
Labour: 16577 (42.8%)
Conservative: 10877 (28.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8732 (22.5%)
Other: 2560 (6.6%)
Majority: 5700 (14.7%)
I cannot see this as anything but a punt for the Lib Dems.
We are certainly not “winning here” IMHO.
Esther will not change that.
121
Under 10%? I’ll have some of that.
103 Gasman
You can have 4/1 with me - maximum of £25.
121 PtP - Seems I was right the other day when I said the movement on SPIN would be reversed in the short term; Labour back up a couple of seats at 204-209.
124 At evens, Councilhouse? Max of £25. OK?
122 - that link doesn’t work, Nick! Though you’re probably wise to keep the site under wraps until after the GE, otherwise your Tory opponent will make mischief with it…
117 Jonathon says “It’s OK to Vote Conservative”
(in Luton South….)
126 Yes, Richard. It didn’t make sense. I actually offloaded a small proportion of my Labour sells at the lower price.
112 cht. Luton South is my adjacent constituency.
127 Peter the Punter
Rantzen to get less that 10% of votes cast, as reported by returning officer. Luton South constituency. GE only. Evens. £25.
Sweet?
117. Jonathan July 28th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Interesting point that about the Hamiltons.
Maybe time for them to get some retribution in against say Blears, Darling, Straw, Hoon, Smith, Purnell or say Mcnulity!
Mrs Hamilton Vs. **************
122. Except in this case there is no good local MP. I think Esther is doing it because she really wants to be an MP, not just a stunt. And what Esther wants …
132. An Independent of course!
122 – NPMP, can an independent be regarded as having been “parachuted in”? I do not regard K-Silk as having been one nor ER if she does in fact stand.
(Pedant alert, sorry)
Nick P, you forgot to mention http://www.nickpalmerisreallygreat.com !
129 Obviously the safest way to avoid a Rantocracy is to vote Labour in Luton.
But if it came down to it, if the only way of avoiding Esther as my MP was to vote Tory, I would gladly do it. She is rather odious. No worse than that. (I am not a fan)
Vote Anyone but Esther
131
Well give us some gen then. Have the Jacobites noted major demographic change? Has Lord Belize flooded the constituency with money? Are the yellow peril winning here?
Like I said, from the outside it doesn’t look the banker everyone seems to presume it is.
137, are you sure you aren’t a fan? You’ve been sending out very mixed messages
136. Robert Barnes July 28th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
It comes up blank?
131
Well give us some gen then. Have the Jacobites noted major demographic change? Has Lord Belize flooded the constituency with cash? Are the yellow peril winning here?
Like I said, from the outside it doesn’t look the banker everyone seems to presume it is.
PtP
I replied to your offer and accepted. It appeared at 132. Where has it gone???
MODS, where’s my comment at 132 gone????
122
Nick,
Were you surprised after all that stuff about transparency,the need for all future expense claims to have receipts;that as soon as parliament is in recess your colleagues sneak out even larger expense allowances without the need for receipts?
Were they hoping that the public wouldn’t notice or that they just have short memories?
Conservative PPC unimpressed by Rantzen’s decision…
http://www.nigelhuddleston.com/
141 Coucilhouse
Send me an email. We need to exchange details.
arklebar@talktalk.net
Cheers.
I think punters on this issue should take note of Nick Palmer’s warning upthread re. Kilroy-Silk…
139 MD
As a long-term fan of British sitcoms, I’ve been waiting about 20 years to be able to say this…
I was only joking Martin!
119 - Never mind independents, Bell did democracy a favour and if Campbell had a major role then at least Campbell can go to his grave with one good thing chalked up on the ledger.
Nobody was ever in any doubt who Labour and the Lib Dems supported in Tatton in 1997. They were explicit about it at the time and the overwhelmingly conservative electorate backed the possibly centre-lefty over a crook.
As an MP he proved reasonably effective and seems to have been pretty well liked (source - my sister’s godparents in Knutsford, one of whom backed Bell, one of whom stuck with the Tories). He was not whipped and spoke out forcefully on matters such as Yugoslavia which did not always make life easy for Blair.
I think some Tory activists get stroppy about it because they rather liked the Hamiltons. But That’s Life, chaps.
131 - Jack W, “Luton South is my adjacent constituency.”
I bet your pad sticks out like a sore thumb amongst the pebble dashed semis.
http://s0.geograph.org.uk/photos/04/13/041310_d3307e05.jpg
147. Lefty sockpuppet candidates haven’t fared so well since, have they? I wonder why…
I think Christine Hamilton would make a rather good MP personally, her hubby was like Chris Huhne’s older smarmy brother.
*puts on tin hat*
140 cht. Luton South is not the most likely of Jacobite lands !!
My humble opinion is Luton South will offer much fun and Peter the Punter will have a small grin come election day …. he does all things small !!
Of course Sean Fear will be THE man on the spot. I’m sure his accounts will be full of worthy intelligence and a little dry wit !!
143 If (as it seems the Luton South are still urging) Moran stood down now as a Labour MP, I think there is a much greater chance of ER winning a by-election (with all the hoopla that brings) rather than at the GE. Check whether your bets cover this outcome, guys….
147 - Always got the impression he regretted his commitment to only stand for one term.
Ironic labour made a big deal about sleaze in the run up to 97 when in power they were the sleaziest of the lot.
147 - Always got the impression he regretted his commitment to only stand for one term.
Ironic labour made a big deal about sleaze in the run up to 97 when in power they were the sleaziest of the lot.
122. NPMP said “a year that was generally poor for Labour” in regards to 2005. A year in which Labour achieved a 66 seat majority in the Commons.
If he thinks the 66 seat majority that Labour achieved was a ‘generally poor’ result, how will he describe the results of the next general election?
PB Competition time?
147 Sir Norfolk - I think what rankles is that Martin Bell was falsely presented as an independent candidate who had on his own initiative decided to stand, when it was in fact an Alastair Campbell stunt.
But kudos to Campbell: it was a very effective stunt, which succeeded in reinforcing the ‘Tory sleaze’ message.
They don’t make spin-meisters like that any more.
150 I’d love to see Christine Hamilton stand in a complete no-hope, no-holds-barred contest, in somewhere like Peckham, against Hapless Harriet….
151 I have zero chance of providing GE night insight as I live in Wealden
2005
Conservative 28,975
Lib Dem 13,054
Labour 9,360
Green 2,150
UKIP 2,114
Majority 15,921
Turnout 55,653 67.7%
Conservative hold Swing +1.3
155 “a sub-optimal voting experience…”?
157 - What good would that do for Hamilton ? Even with Labour as deeply unpopular as they are now they are not likely to lose Harmans seat.
150. Oh yes - Christina in Chris Huhnes seat!
Whereas Ian Gibson got shouted at in supermarkets by voters, chris Huhne shouts at voters!
Would be an interest match Battleaxe (Christine) against birdbrain (Huhne)!
No doubt the LDs would be far from imPRESSED! 
148 SimonStClare. Looks not unlike one of my Scottish estate gatehouses.
150. You’re right - there is a likeness there Plato.
151. Jack W:
The Jacobites had to turn back at Derby
159. “slightly below expectations”?
155 Deferred success outcome?
165 “suspiciously divergent from canvassing returns”?
157 - Christine Hamilton versus Harriet Harman – that would be one hell of a mud wrestle…
157
Spare me mate. Bell did a favour for democracy? You are having a laugh. Up till the expenses, Tatton was the prime example of the need for recall and/or multi-member constituencies. Did we get it? Did Bell offer it? Call for it? Get up in Parliament and demand, with the anger of the righteous, that the people get the power to remove corrupt representatives without having to wait for the leftie elite in London to decide if it was in their interest?
No, no, no and did he fcuk. He’s, and was, a fraud. Trust me, I was new to this voting and politics lark back in 97 and couldn’t wait to see the back of the Hamiltons. Aitken got what he deserved and no sympathy from me. I was horrified by Archer planning to run for Mayor!
But where is the leftie luvvie running against Blears? Hoon? Where are they demanding the head of the ‘Noble Lord’ who thought it was part of his remit to sell legislation? Or was that OK because he ‘umbly apologised. I can tell you, if a Copper ever catches me red-handed, I’ll be ‘umbly apologising as well. Fat lot of good it will do me.
Jack W
Noted sir
PtP
I’ll send it now.
155. “systematic ballot counting errors”
145. Ah the irony of “runneymede” endorsing one of Nick Palmer’s comments
A flying pig and a four leaf clover and I’m done for the day !!
167. But the successful Conservative candidate on the night, in his exception speech offered three cheers for Mr Palmer, where by NPMP (ret.) was hoisted above the shoulders of the assembled crowds who all sang ‘for he’s a jolly good fellow’ and carried him out of the hall on a wave of enthusiasm and popularity, not a dry eye in the house.
156. It was a class piece of spin - no surprise Campbell likes to boast about it. Compare that with the lamentable joke of a smear by LabourList this w/e about Coulson and Cameron, which seemed to be written by an 8 year old with behavioural problems. The glory days of New Labour spin are long gone.
172 And shouted Conservatives for Palmer!
155 “Too many school leavers unable to spell ‘X’”
156 - I just can’t really understand that criticism given the support of Labour and the Lib Dems for Bell was hardly tacit. It was explicit and loud. Hamilton made precisely the point in his campaign - and lost badly.
Oops, my 169 was in reply to 147, not 157. Apols MM, wasn’t ranting at your comment.
On your comment, as I live in Peckham, I’d rather Mrs Hamilton stayed tbh.
171. “A flying pig and a four leaf clover and I’m done for the day !!”
How about a winner from PtP?
Just Kidding!!! 2 fourths thus far
Completely OT but this did make me laugh.
“The introduction of power pants for men is seen as a logical follow-on to the craze for skinny jeans, pioneered by snake-hipped rock-stars such as Keith Richards and Iggy Pop, and turned into a fashion cause-celebre by designers such as Hedi Slimane and Alexander McQueen.
Equman, which also designs a range of ‘control’ vests to trim stomachs and support the alignment of core muscles, which was launched at Selfridges earlier this year, is not alone in its quest to give men the figure they’ve always dreamed of.
The website, http://www.figleaves.com, which also sells Equmen, offers a range of ‘Body Boost’ pants for men which come with a design package to “enhance the profile”.
Both the trunks (£20) and the briefs (£16), are in cotton and feature an inner-boost strap and a shaped, supportive, front pouch.
Both the Calvin Klein and the Equmen ranges are in sizes s-xl.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fashion/fashionnews/5924818/Control-pants-for-men-to-launch-on-the-British-High-street.html
I wonder who will be buying the next size up
162 Sunil. Actually Swarkestone Bridge some five miles south of Derby was the nearest the Prince Regents army got to London.
178 I did warn you Scott! Can’t find the winner of a one-horse race at the moment.
Off topic:
“Local authorities in the UK run by the Conservatives are blocking three times as many windfarms as they approve, it has been warned. According to Greenpeace, Tory councillors dismissed a large number of renewable energy developments between December 2005 and November 2008.”
Vote Blue, Go Green.
155. Tories can take no comfort from their landslide victory?
182, or, Vote Blue, and tell inefficient and unappealing wind farms to sod off.
182
That because there are 3 times as many Tory authorities than the others….
182- Do you have numbers for non-Tory authorities to provide a comparison?
179 – Plato, did you know that in Italy, condoms only come in sizes Large, X large and Ginormous.
Probably too much info, I’ll get my coat.
181. PtP. You’re not alone if the price of Main Aim is any guide. Ah well. Better luck next time
182 Isn’t it more likely that Tory councils will be more rural and therefore more likely to get planning requests?
And that those will be turned down on SSI etc grounds?
Where I live would be great wind farm territory but it’ll never be granted in a zillion years as it’s protected/full of bird-life.
161
‘Oh yes - Christina in Chris Huhnes seat!’
I would have thought that Chris Huhne followed by butler carrying trouser press will be one of the memorable images from the next election.
186. “During the same period, it found that Labour-controlled councils only just approved slightly more windfarms than they turned down.”
187 I seem to recall that it’s the same in India too!
182 - having worked for an MP with an interest in this area I have to say I’m surprised… that the rejection rate isn’t higher. I’ve seen first-hand some of the phenominally stupid locations in which people want to build these things.
179. I wonder who will be buying the next size up?
Ed Balls?
157. Given that a dozen years after Bell’s antics parliament has been shamed for running an expenses system riddled with systematic corruption, it is very hard indeed to see what his standing achieved in terms of ending ’sleaze’ or promoting democracy.
His achievement was a purely partisan one of unseating a Tory MP and helping Labour win power.
182, sandy. Good. Wind farms are perhaps the most inefficient method of producing large scale power as can devised by the wit of man. A question for you Sandy. You are lying in an intensive care bed. The machinery is plugged into
a) Wind farm generated power
b) Nuclear power station generated power
which would make you feel the most comfortable?
187 SimonStClare. Unsurprisingly most remain unsold and are then exported to Scotland and Harpenden.
Jack W is 106 …. Wha hayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
182. Good for them - onshore wind power is a scam.
187 And in related news:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6161691.stm
Vote Green, and wag your dirty puritannical finger at everyone for enjoying themselves — while the Chinese build 6 new coal-fired power stations every minute (or somesuch statistic).
197 -
196 Wind Farms would be a lot more popular in Tory shires if the option to have a Nuclear power station far far away was withdrawn.
You can have a nuclear power station or a windfarm on your doorstep. Which are you going to choose?
I suspect Tory councils would be fighting for windfarms if they didn’t have the easy option of consuming power without responsibility for generating it and dealing with the by products.
Perhaps they should take their fair share of nuclear waste?
192 You are going to be sadly disappointed, lass… see 199!
202 - why would the option of the most reliable and green power generation methods be taken away?
And how exactly does someone take their fair share of nuclear waste? I don’t even know what that means…
196. don, bogus question - you’re plugged in to the National Grid, which takes power from all available sources in a sequential order, traditionally based on efficiency, but in future I suspect based on carbon intensity. Detailed calculations have been performed to determine the proportion of reserve capacity from other sources required for various wind generation scenarios. As long as this is all built (a big if, it must be said, but providing replacement capacity to existing plants due for decommissioning is a major issue - but I digress), then the life support should keep on working. There is more risk of the local sub-station being taken out, as happened in south east London last week, resulting in thousands having no leccie for several days.
202, nuclear power station. More jobs, less visual pollution, and guaranteed energy.
If we had a giant artillery gun we could fire the radioactive material into the sun.
Meanwhile in forgotten and unlamented Iraq:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jul/28/iraq-british-troops-relocate-kuwait
They are irrelevant.
Not even spear carriers.
190 -
35.PtP, Esther recent media appearances have not impressed me to be honest. I find her a bit annoying. I think that had she been more local, she might have gained more traction as anti politician candidate. As it is, she is no Martin Bell, will not have the support of the opposition parties. And most important, the incumbant will not be there to fight her in the GE as Neil Hamilton did Martin Bell.
Add in that this is a game changing GE, and with the economy in the toilet. Wrong seat and wrong opponents, at the wrong time. She might pick up the protest vote, or be an option to some disillusioned Labour voters as UKIP were in NN. I expect to her to keep her deposit, but gain little more than that.
“you’re plugged in to the National Grid, which takes power from all available sources in a sequential order, traditionally based on efficiency”
So, presumably the order will be, Nuclear, Gas, Coal and finally onshore wind farm. Still not making a very good argument to allow the building of more of these white elephants are you?
Odds on Piquet staying at Renault get a little longer: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/77393
202
Nuclear Power Stations - Local jobs for local people over a long term basis rather than wind mills with jobs for chinese workers and the shipping industry.
202
Ah but with nuclear power stations, you don’t need as many to do the job so the issue is less pertinent.
Also, nuclear power stations are far better neighbours because they are compact and quiet. They’re another industrial worksite, but without the air pollution. Of course, whether the councillors in question are smart enough to realise that is another matter, but it is in fact the truth.
206
That would be stupid. Most of the nuclear waste can be recycled. It’s a little more expensive, but when the cost of high grade uranium ore rises, it will be much more attractive.
I quite agree that Esther R cannot be considered as a serious candidate. After all she knows far more about the impact of legislation and bureaucratic bungling on ordinary people’s lives than Chamereon would ever have if he lived to become 208. Thus she is totally unrepresentative: having some knowledge to balance the massive ego is a dangerous thing in an MP and must not be tolerated at any cost!
As for the posters who have suggested media representatives as being less suitable as MPs than politicians, I would remind you that it is decades since Government became more responsive to MPs than it was to the media.
209 It’s a fair view, Christina, but a far cry from the howls of derision here that greeted her decision to stand, many to the effect that she wouldn’t even save her deposit.
Strangely, when I offered to lay 4/1 against her saving said deposit, the howls subsided. So far, not a single taker (although Councilhousetory is taking evens she gets less than 10% of the vote.)
Not many cullions evident amongst the Blue Brigade today.
205 Either the national grid largely takes wind power and has no coal/gas power, in which case it will fall down on a regular basis, or it has coal/gas/nuclear back ups, in which case electricity will be very expensive and no cleaner than now. Wind always needs a reliable back up, and it’s much easier/cheaper/better to have a proper (ie non wind) power source going constantly rather than firing up every now and again when the wind drops
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/22/wind_intermittency_study/
213 I take it you would rather live next door to a Nuclear power station than a wind farm. Good for you.
204 It’s just a question of out of sight, out of mind being preferable to the nimbys.
If these councils reject renewables in favour of nuclear to power their communities, they councils should, if they have integrity, offer to dispose some of the waste they produce or at maybe build a power station instead.
I suspect Windmills and tidal power will pop up super fast, if they are faced with taking full responsibility for their decisions.
210 Don
“Nuclear, Gas, Coal and finally onshore wind farm”
You forgot one, should be
Nuclear, Gas, Coal, French Nuclear, and finally onshore wind farm
210. don, I said “traditionally”, and you truncated my sentence to make a spurious point. This is not the current dispatch order - wind is at the top-end of the list.
Personally, I think wind turbines look graceful, but agree that there are locations where they detract from the natural landscape.
206. Morris Dancer - I have always thought the best place to put it would be in a deep hole in the middle of Australia.
Ooooh.
Bookies Predict Rantzen Won’t Make It To Luton Poll
Iain Dale 3:47 PM
Ha! Ladbrokes are quoting me 4/6 odds on that Esther Rantzen will pull out before nominations close for Luton South. That means they think this is more likely than a Rantzen win. Wise people, these bookies.
One thing which occurred to me. I wonder if she realises that in the unlikely event that she wins, all her outside earnings will have to be declared, along with the hours she spends on them.
I am also sure that she will demonstrate her commitment to the good burghers of Luton by moving there as soon as practicable. It’s a bit of a commute from Hampstead, after all. Although to be fair, Margaret Moran managed it from Southampton :).
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/07/bookies-predict-rantzen-wont-make-it-to.html
216 - I’ll take 16/1, Peter
I reckon she’ll get between 14-17% of the vote, assuming she stands, and will take spread business at those prices 
169.
“Bell did a favour for democracy?”
Long term, no. He destroyed the possibility of a propery-developed party-based defeat of the sickening sleazy Tories in that area, and led to the triumphal procession to election of Mandy’s First Mate GideO.
216 I’ll take £10 of the 4/1 you offered me earlier if that’s ok?
217. Gasman, without renewables, we still have a mixture of baseload and peaking power generation, to meet diurnal swing, outages, etc. Open cycle GTs are a low capital cost, medium efficiency option for peaking, and could fill in at times of low output from future base load nuclear and renewable generation. There will also be a future role for coal fired generation with carbon capture - as long as the costs come down. With the net power output reduction that results from adding CO2 capture, the capital cost per net MW installed capacity goes up by a third or more compared to a non-capture coal fired plant.
150.”I think Christine Hamilton would make a rather good MP personally, her hubby was like Chris Huhne’s older smarmy brother.”
Plato, I have always thought that too! She would certainly be a cat among the PCP pigeons as it wore.
221 - regarding nuclear waste disposal - here are probably the best ‘off the wall’ ideas
http://www.larryniven.org/stories/roentgen.shtml
218
Yes, I’d much rather live next door to a nuclear power station.
It is a bit silly to be insisting on such a zero sum game when it comes to waste disposal though. What may be suitable as a site for an operating power plant may not necessarily be suitable for a geological disposal facility.
227.Doh, were not wore.
PTP
Iain Dale has this.. they dont seem as certain as you…
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
Bookies Predict Rantzen Won’t Make It To Luton Poll
Iain Dale 3:47 PM
Ha! Ladbrokes are quoting me 4/6 odds on that Esther Rantzen will pull out before nominations close for Luton South. That means they think this is more likely than a Rantzen win. Wise people, these bookies.
One thing which occurred to me. I wonder if she realises that in the unlikely event that she wins, all her outside earnings will have to be declared, along with the hours she spends on them.
I am also sure that she will demonstrate her commitment to the good burghers of Luton by moving there as soon as practicable. It’s a bit of a commute from Hampstead, after all. Although to be fair, Margaret Moran managed it from Southampton
Sandy the link provided by gasman at 217 makes the argument in a much better way than I can.
Johnathon, you are aware that nuclear waste is not just stored in a shed at the bottom of the local councillors garden aren’t you? There are a limited number of locations in the UK that have the geology to allow them to be used for nuclear waste storage. It’s not the case of putting up your hands and saying we’ll be good eggs and take our share. Face facts nuclear is the only method we have of producing power with anything like the required efficiency to be viable.
202: Jonathan @ 15:47
“I suspect Tory councils would be fighting for windfarms if they didn’t have the easy option of consuming power without responsibility for generating it and dealing with the by products.”
I am curious. Just how much thought did you put into the above? Off the top of my head:
Dungeness A is being decomissioned and will become a nuclear waste storage site. Dungeness B is still producing power. It is of course in a conservative area, Michael Howard’s constituency.
Sizewell on the Suffolk coast is in John Gummer’s constituency.
I can’t be bothered to look up the rest of the sites, but I suspect their location and local party affiliations are not linked.
218 But it’s a false comparison, Jonathan. The choice is between a few widely-scatterred nuclear power stations, and huge tracts of the country being permanently ruined by wind farms. The latter is hardly enviuronmentally friendly. (And that’s ignoring the continuity of supply question).
There is a genuine trade-off, and there are complex questions on decommissioning and waste disposal, but IMO the Green movement has absolutely lost all credibility on this by being so completely one-sided.
As it happens, this is an area where the Conservative Party has been doing some very serious work. Labour have been sticking their heads in the sand, with the result that there is a very serious danger of the lights going out in around six years time, unless we get a derogation from the EU which will allow very highly polluting coal-fired power stations to continue running.
The other key point which is totally lost in the noise is that we already all live extremely close to dozens of nuclear power stations, in France. Better get used to it, because if something does go wrong, being across the Channel won’t help.
16.
“It would not surprise me if she queitly pulls out in a few months”
We must be grateful to Martin D for explaining why he is always too busy to find gainful employment. It is not his obsession with awful Paintshop products but his experience of elderly parliamentary candidates!
235 - Nurse, another one’s escaped.
218: “They councils should, if they have integrity, offer to dispose some of the waste they produce or at maybe build a power station instead”
That’s just nonsense. Both power stations and disposal sites have pretty exacting geological requirements. Power stations of all varieties require substantial quantities of cooling water, access for heavy plant far exceeding those of wind farms and proximity to the grid where connections for 1300MW or more are available.
Unlike the pitiable few kW output from wind farms.
In all respects sites thought to be suitable for on-shore wind farms will, by definition, be unsuitable for nuclear (or coal or oil fired) power stations.
235.
Whatever one’s views of Craig Murray (who I know not) one might show restraint before making statements of fact which are so clearly defamatory. Mike might wish to remove these pdq.
Was not Craig Murray the one with the young Kazakh bride? In which case, Esther to follow him might require a Turkmen toyboy? A Rantzen-Borat combination would be political dymnamite!
234 Richard, come on, this is about NIMBYism pure and simple. At present councils have a totally false choice. Reject one form of power generation in favour of relying on someone else to take all the environmental cost.
IMO this is an ideal opportunity for the Tories to demonstrate their claims to responsibility, by making councils face up to the full consequences of their planning descsions. If they reject local renewables, nuclear (or something else), they should be obliged to contribute to the environmental costs that are incurred from relying on other sources. We might see some different choices.
Can we agree that “Out of sight, out of mind” shouldn’t really be an option in the C21, should it?
Meanwhile, I will sleep nervously in fear of all those windfarms blowing up. As for the greens being on sided. Plank eye.
229 I look forward to seeing your campaign for a local nuclear power station to replace those terrible wind farms.
231
So Rantzen lives in Hampstead. What a surprise. Rantzen should reflect that whilst she intends to go gallavanting around Luton, her mate Glenda might need every vote she can get in Hampstead.
PtP. A result!! 3rd place
240
The 21st Century should be able to do better than windfarms.
231 Yes, there seems to be some doubt then as to whether the decision to stand is genuine, or just a stunt. As far as I am concerned then, all bets are off except the one already struck, with Councilhousetory subject to his confirmation by email (not yet received.)
Seems like the Cullionless Ones missed a good betting opportunity.
240. Jonathan you are making a fool of yourself.
240, how is it responsible to carpet the country with inefficient and expensive windfarms?
It isn’t.
The Beeb can quite happily ignore Rantzen by simply not mentioning Luton South. There will, after all, be 650 constituencies all with elections at the same time andproviding that the other candidates don’t become newsworthy for some reason, there’s no real need to go there. By-elections are quite different in that respect.
As for ignoring Murray, as it turned out, they probably made the right call for the wrong reasons. Murray did turn out to be an also-ran but UKIP didn’t.
It’s the treatment of UKIP which tells the real story. The MSM will try to ignore all the smaller parties because it’s just too confusing and complicated. To some extent, they’ll try to ignore *all* parties and present the election as Brown vs Cameron, in personality terms.
The other reason why the smaller parties will get next to no coverage is because if the Greens and UKIP do, then the BNP will have to have some too - and there’ll be a feeling against their having some. That only applies to the radio and TV, where there has to be ‘balance’, but it all points in the same way: if you don’t sport a blue, red or yellow rosette, expect little or no coverage.
242 And I got 11/10 about the winner! So, pigs fly, a four-leaf clover and a PtP winner all on the same day. What next - Esther Rantzen for Luton South?
Article from the telegraph re local feelings about nuclear power plants.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/3352579/Nuclear-plant-concerns-for-local-residents.html
“The five-year study of the area around three nuclear power sites found about a third of residents believed the local plant brought benefits and had high levels of trust in local operators.
Some 38 per cent were ambivalent but accepted it because of concerns over climate change and energy security, 16 per cent were opposed to it and 12 per cent felt there was no point worrying about the plant.
Half of those questioned near Oldbury, Gloucestershire and 61 per cent near Hinkley Point, Somerset, were in favour of new build on their local site.
But the survey of 1,326 residents found almost a third of residents questioned near Oldbury and almost a quarter at Hinkley Point opposed a new power station. “
re 247. But how much was cause and effect David? If the BBC had treated Murray seriously then he might have done better. He came very close to saving his deposit.
217/232. From the report: “We found that reserve and response to not appear to be critical issues…”. So no problem then.
246 I take it you’re another one who would rather live next to a nuclear power station/ waste site than a windfarm. Good for you too!
245 Hello runnynose. If talking about how to get people to face up to the consequences of power generation makes me a fool here, so be it. Once again, I note you have nothing interesting to say.
England gets awarded the 2015 Rugby World Cup:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/8170488.stm
240 Not so, Jonathan. In Kent and Sussex, I don’t see much evidence of Nimbyism with respect to the (very likely) construction of a replacement nuclear power station at Dungeness. If Labour would like to propose that the Weald and Sussex Downs should instead be covered in wind farms of equivalent power generation capacity, then I think I know what the local choice would be.
As I said, it’s not a one-sided issue, and wind farms (especially offshore) certainly have their place. But to pretend they are a get-out-of-jail-free card, which simultaneously will supply growing demand for power, eliminate carbon emissions, and have no environmentally detrimental effects, is absurd.
250.
“He came very close to saving his deposit”
Perhaps he should demand recompensation from the Beeb Chairman’s copious expenses?
Btw I know that Murray’s spanking new belly-dancer was/is an Uzbek, not a Kazakh.
Worth remembering that more people died in Teddy Kennedy’s car at Chappaquiddick than at Three Mile Island.
On the power debate, I am on record as much preferring wave power to wind power, but I advised that the future for nuclear is a much more efficient fuel cycle by essentially recycling conventional nuclear waste in fast breeder reactors.
Comment 235 has been deleted.
Sandy, can you drop me your email address and bank account details. I will need them to pay the surcharge that wind power will impose on my electricity bills. I am sure you will not mind doing this as you are obviously very pro paying higher electricity bills via the medium of wind generation.
254.
“to pretend they are a get-out-of-jail-free card, which simultaneously will supply growing demand for power, eliminate carbon emissions, and have no environmentally detrimental effects, is absurd.”
…..as are equally absurd pretences on all these factors for nuclear power generation. It would be fair to say that the nuclear industry is known throughout the scientific community for having an Icke-ish approach to truth which would humble Alistair Campbell and Andy Coulson combined.
PtP
Sent the email about an hour ago and just resent.
On the subject of electricity generation, let’s just hope there is a technological breakthrough sometime soon, or we are all going to be struggling.
259 - Wage-slave, my #236 still applies
258. don, just wait to see how much extra you have to pay for the CO2 emission credits - it will make wind look cheap as chips.
Nuclear power is one issue that gets me extremely het up. Why on earth have we spent decades fannying around with windmills, when we should have been leading the world in nuclear power? Nuclear is efficient, reliable, clean, environmentally-friendly and job-creating. With our engineering heritage and expertise, we could be selling nuclear power stations to the rest of the world by the dozen by now, instead of relying on the French to build them for us, twenty years too late. And why? Because a bunch of ill-educated, mis-informed, weed-addled hippies decided that Sizewell B = Chernobyl 4; and instead of pointing out that they were comparing a Rolls Royce to a Trabant, we bottled it. A crying shame.
WS 259, sounds interesting. Any links to that assertion?
264 to 260
I noticed Craig Murray polled an almost identical figure to the BNP.
(Meaningless comparison alert)
249 That is true, but given that UKIP did save their deposit, beat the Greens and came 4th I think they can feel much more wronged by the BBC than Craig Murray should. Given that there were several independent/BNP/OMRLP/Libertarian candidates that were all also no-hopers along with Murray (who doesn’t appear to have any connection to Norwich North, or anything to add over any other independent anywhere) I’d say the BBC made the right choice with him, ut very wrong with UKIP and the Greens.
All British troops now out of Iraq - for a while, anyway:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8172893.stm
How about we just pull stumps and call it a day now, guys?
I’d far rather have a nuclear power station down the road than a wind farm. YMMV.
265 - Well said!
265.
“Nuclear is efficient, reliable, clean, environmentally-friendly and job-creating.”
….and gifted to us by pink fairies! This intense groundless faith in the nuclear industry seems to mimic that of suicide bombers.
251. I think that’s wishful thinking Mike.
250. He might well have done a bit better and saved his deposit had he been treated as a serious contender but I doubt it would have been much better. After all, as you noted, UKIP were excluded from the debate which contained a Green but they still finished fourth, polling their highest ever share and total (as did the Greens, for that matter).
There were lots of minor parties who could attract the anti-sleaze vote, which given Gibson’s continuing popularity might not have been that big in the first place.
Murray did save his deposit against Straw but didn’t come remotely close to winning or even getting a decent place. So with NN. It was always a very likely Tory gain, with Labour, the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens fighting over the places. All those four did at least have form in the constituency; Murray was coming in cold. I don’t honestly think he deserved more coverage than he got.
264
We can choose not to pay these emission credits. Who are we paying them too? Why? Where is the money coming from? Who decides on level of payment? What is the procedure for challenging the bill a state receives? What happens if you refuse to pay?
Carbon credits, there’s a good idea. Must be money to be made there by someone. Can you name any former American Vice presidents who are heavily involved in Carbon Credit trading? The name escapes me at the moment. I think they may be involved in man made global warming in some way. But hey, not to worry nuclear power generation does not produce carbon.
I’ve lost track of seant’s property buying quest, but has he left it too late?
House prices rose in June for the first time since the beginning of last year, the Land Registry index showed on Tuesday, reinforcing the signs of bottoming out shown recently by two of the most closely watched measures of the housing market.
Prices rose by 0.1 per cent in June, after showing no decline in May and a 0.1 per cent fall in April. That comes after much sharper monthly falls of up to 2 per cent between August last year and February this year.
262 Noted, Councilhouse, and I have replied.
You now have a very good bet. Labrokes are 4/6 she won’t stand. You could lay off! That’s your reward for moving swiftly, and showing a little more cullions than some of your confreres.
276
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Emission_Trading_Scheme
264 - So your answer to the pricing differential wrt wind power is a false charging system based on pseudo-scientific claptrap whereby the unimportant CO2 emissions will result in the eco-mentalist windpower being more attractive than more reliable and well developed technologies. Excellent.
278. .1 percent, horrah, the recession is over, rejoice.
FFS.
259 Wageslave
“It would be fair to say that the nuclear industry is known throughout the scientific community for having an Icke-ish approach to truth which would humble Alistair Campbell and Andy Coulson combined.”
Like Don am also interested in this, any links?
It would be fair to say that the scientific understanding of nuclear fission is fairly well understood. The engineering community may not understand all the issues yet though.
265.
“a bunch of ill-educated, mis-informed, weed-addled hippies”
You are referring here to the operators of Windscale (so bad tey remnamed it twice)? - the people who had to wait till they had a major incident to realise that they had been making major uncontrolled emissions for years, and who have ‘diversified’ into white elephants which sadly do not fly.
I do not claim to know all there is to know about the present state of nuclear engineering (my degree and postgraduate study into the field was a few years back) but I do know the broken-abacus economics and flatulent fib record of the UK industry. The French, are a bit better but are likely storing up for the future cataclysmic events which will cross borders.
281. It ain’t my answer - it’s how things are going to happen.
Blame/thank the EU, Kyoto Treaty, etc.
Anyway, I need to go…
278 - a rise of 0.1%? One pound in a thousand? So a house priced at £500,000 in May is now going for £500,500. Where’s my credit card - quick!!
***Sort of betting post***
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5226673/calm-down-calm-down.thtml
“The FT’s excellent Westminster Blog is getting rather excited by a leaked version of the Tory conference agenda which has the session on the economy featuring an ‘appearance by “Hammond and Osborne”. (Or perhaps, it is just entering into the spirit of the silly season) Jim Pickard connects this to the speculation that Osborne might not end up as Chancellor after all. But I suspect that the explanation is actually rather more mundane: Hammond will deliver remarks early in the session before Osborne winds it up with the keynote speech on the economy. “
273. wage slave July 28th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
All means of energy production have pros and cons. To me, nuclear seems the least worst of the options that are available for large scale use right now.
I don’t see the similarity to the belief of suicide bombers in whatever-it-is-they-believe. This is not an article of faith, just a matter of choosing a solution to a practical problem.
WS 259, sounds interesting. Any links to that assertion?
by don(the other one) July 28th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
WS I have to get ready for work now, so will be magnanimous and say that you are busy working on a list of references and will be publishing them later. I will check back tomorrow morning when I get in.
254 “But to pretend they are a get-out-of-jail-free card, which simultaneously will supply growing demand for power, eliminate carbon emissions, and have no environmentally detrimental effects, is absurd.”
Who said that? Not I. Of course they have an environmental effect, like all forms of power generation. It’s just not brushed under the carpet or deferred like all the others. All I ask is that councils, when they reject wind farms consider the full consequences of their choices.
Mmmm I’ve been offered my job back at NI. I thought I would be pleased but it feels oddly weird.
277 As it happens, London is the leading marketplace for carbon credits. It’s quite a nice little earner for UK plc.
The history of this is quite interesting. It goes back to US legislation to reduce sulphur (or, as they would put it, sulfur) emissions, by setting up tradeable permits. That had the effect of maximising the economic efficiency of measures to reduce emissions. (Basically, if you owned a plant which produced X tons of sulphur per year, you could either pay to install equipment to reduce the emission, or pay for a credit. That incentivises those who can most cheaply reduce emissions to do so, as they can then sell a permit to someone else. The net result is the maximum improvement in total emissions, at the minimum cost).
291. Congratulations on the offer, even if it feels weird
291 Teh congratulations -ish!
286. On house prices is there any information about rate of houses going on the market? Aren’t house prices rising (ever so marginally) because of lack of supply?
295 With much reduced sales numbers, it was probably just a couple of Russians, each determined to get the same expensive property, that skewed the figures…
Unbelievable
I had a look at Sandy Rentool’s link on this ETS. A number of EU members are simply ignoring it or paying it lip service. Second, it is designed around how much CO2 you produce, so there is no reward for being a low emitter. It was so badly designed, nearly every allocation had to be cut. Oh and cityboys had made small fortunes out of the ridiculouse disparities.
What was it Hayek said about planners?
by wage slave July 28th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_zpMKqKFHmEg/SlPLFlMdW4I/AAAAAAAAAtI/zeUTzu1vcjM/s400/LiNick+Clegg+Perve.jpg
188. I got 2 winners this afternoon, Main Aim let me down for the treble. Pig sick as I took Harbinger at 15/8 and it won at 3-1 in the end. Still managed to come out ahead overall so not that bad.
291. David Roe July 28th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Great stuff!
I have just appleid to my last legal employer for a job! Hope they will have me back as well! I used to like going to to Leeds on the Train! A few pints on the way home to avoid the rush hour!
278. House prices on the rise?
2009 UK House Prices
Any increase (or 0.00%) 33/1 Pending
Sweet !!
287 - I believe if you check the agenda from last year it said exactly the same thing.
re 299. Martin - I know that there are many on the site who are really wishing you the best of luck with your job application even though it would reduce your posting levels on PB. That’s a sacrifice we can bear.
30. Check the rules on that bet carefully…
291 - Congratulations, and bite their hands off!
House prices are seasonal and spring and summer traditionally tend to see rises in prices with more buyers and therefore sellers having to discount less. I work in property and there are fewer sellers currently and so I wouldn’t read too much into the short term trends. Until general employment prospects, the economic outlook and mortgage deals for first time buyers (level of deposits especially) improve as a whole I doubt there will be any major upward trend in house prices and we may see a dip in the autumn/winter.
O/T, but loved the arguments in this story, about a new beer brewed to 18.2%…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/8170813.stm
BrewDog founder James Watt said: “Mass-market, industrially-brewed lagers are so bland and tasteless that you are seduced into drinking a lot of them.
“We’ve been challenging people to drink less alcohol, and educating the palates of drinkers with progressive craft-brewed beers which have an amazing depth of flavour, body and character.
“The beers we make at BrewDog, including Tokyo*, are providing a cure to binge beer-drinking.”
303. Thanks!
291- That’s great and, as you say, a bit strange too. I guess they found out they couldn’t live without you!
House sales are still very sluggish where I live. One house near me has been up for sale for over a year and still hasn’t sold.
Just down the road, a man with a young family commited suicide last week after being unemployed since Christmas.
Things are still very grim out there for a lot of people.
Computer expert says my computer is virtually dead, so I will have to get a new one. It might be a few days before I’m back to normal and in the meantime I’ll be catching up occasionally in an internet cafe. I won’t have time to read through the threads but I’ll check the articles at the top.
283. Just a few references. Cant be ***ed to go fishing for you. Anyone, btw who looks down their noses at Russian engineering and science compared to that in the UK should write a dissertation on UK space stations. The remarkable damage-limitation post-Chernobyl is also a tribute to the remarkable ingenuity of Russian engineers and scientists when up a creek without a paddle.
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/09/12/a-catalogue-of-idiocy/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2005/may/09/environment.nuclearindustry
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?sc=2047059
Remember these nuclear propagandists had Tony Benn wrapped round their little fingers for years. They are VERY ‘good’(sic). If you analyse advertising expenditure on ‘propaganda’ historically, the UK Nuclear Industry is effectively Britain’s fourth political party.
306 - they have a point; at £10 a bottle it’ll still cost more and provide less alcohol than a four-pack of most lagers. Of course you can drink it quicker than a four-pack - though the extra alcohol content will make it pack more of a punch - but those who are determined to get bladdered won’t buy it.
Off out the door to work now, just thought I would comment on the quality of the postings and spirit within the comments over the last few days. Hope it lasts, not posting over the last week or so took a great deal of tongue biting. Night all.
299
I thought you’d hang on till Dave became PM. Then it’ll be like that scene in Dr Strangelove, you know the one where Strangelove staggers out of his wheelchar, ‘Mein Fuehrer I can walk’
299.
“I have just appleid to my last legal employer for a job! ”
What about the illegal ones? You haven’t by any chance, ‘worked’ full-time on the state payroll for a Tory MP based in Norwich for the past four weeks? You never did get Chloe’s hair right though did you?
See Lord Lester’s column today for yet another GOATT disillusioned with Labour’s ways of doing things (especially Jack Straw’s). The tone of the article is remarkably similar to Matthew Engels article in the FT yesterday which comments on the ‘anti-politics’ mood of the public.
Geoffrey Wheatcroft in the Guardian today also comments on how we don’t really like Cameron’s Tory’s much; we should just hate Brown more.
Then we have the daily Telegraph’s revelation about the new expenses scheme for MPs, and Hey…why’s turnout dropping at elections?
297.
“What was it Hayek said about planners?”
If they were all laid end to end, there would be miles of unsuitable erections?
David Roe/Martin Day.
My rule re jobs was “never go back”, but these are very unusual times, and I wish you both the very best for whatever you feel is best for you both.
310 I struggled on with a 1998 Pentium 2 for far too long - simply didn’t realise what I was missing. Finally dumped it for a Toshiba Satellite L350/17P laptop - more of a desktop machine really, full size keyboard with numeric pad, 17″ widescreen - which at modest cost, £439 from John Lewis with two year warranty, has been a big improvement.
284 - No, I’m not.
And if you’re talking about the 1957 Windscale fire, that was a) over 50 years ago; b) at a military site; c) a graphite-moderated, air-cooled reactor, completely different to any modern designs; d) despite being Britain’s worst ever nuclear incident by quite some way, didn’t kill a single person.
310 I struggled on with a 1998 Pentium 2 for far too long - simply didn’t realise what I was missing. Finally dumped it for a Toshiba Satellite L350/17P laptop - more of a desktop machine really, full size keyboard with numeric pad, 17″ widescreen - which at modest cost, £439 from John Lewis with two year warranty, has been a big improvement.
314
Wage Slave, How many times are you going to post about this? You are almost as repetitive as Tim, though not quite yet…..
Oopa, spoke too soon - double-clicked!
283.
I spent some time pulling out some links but my posting never made it to the site. Trying a couple again:
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/09/12/a-catalogue-of-idiocy/
http://www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?sc=2047059
And the ‘regulators’ are a joke who make the Financial Services Agency seem top-drawer:
http://www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=16568
306, 311 - For that money, hardened drinkers are more likely to be knocking back cheap whisky - more bang for your buck(fast).
If instead of calling it beer they had called it barley wine, no one would be talking about it. You certainly couldn’t drink a beer that strong like Heineken. I have little sympathy for the brewer though, who have no doubt had a keen eye on the marketing possibilities.
321.
You are about to announce that you are Tim, Wayne and Martin D all rolled into one?
Maggie Thatcher Fan July 28th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
I would not normally but it is a better job!
Probably wont get it but F*ck it anyway! Best not to give up even in the mess that is the economy under Labour!
345. wage slave July 28th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
No, I dont work for the Tories, I am not part of the membership and I dont know Chloe!
310. 318. My hour is nearly up. Last few days amazing how easy it is to survive without doing 4 or 6 or 8 hours of internet each day. Like being a junkie, except no withdrawal symptoms. More time to read books. My brother is a clever computer bod in NYNY so he’s sorting out getting a new computer for my birthday present.
I won’t be back for a day or three. I reckon I might go to Henry Allingham’s funeral on Thursday in Brighton.
Its OK guys its only a publicity stunt.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/jul/28/lembit-opik-model-love
errr I think.
O/T.
How come there is not yet a PB.com thread on the subject of Lembit Opik’s miraculously correct predictions of heavenly bodies falling to earth?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1202631/How-DOES-Lembit-unlikely-Lothario-strikes-With-younger-model.html
325
Wage Slave, I think you must be far more qualified than I.
305. Thanks for that. Bet it won’t stop auntie managing to slip the good tidings into the news bulletins. They’ve been absurdly enthusiastic on the ‘green shoots’ front but virtually buried the genuinely serious news that the economy shrank 0.8% in the last quarter.
317 MTF, I “went back” about a year ago, and have never been happier. It can be done.
328.
It’s just Lembit’s way of saying ‘knickers’ to the political pundits who have predicted his downfall.
334. wage slave July 28th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
It wont do him much good with the women voters and as Opik is not what i would call mainstream attractive blokes will probably just think he is a t0sser!
317 - I have a colleague with a perfectly palindromic CV (he had a year’s career break in the middle). He has thrived.
326
I’ve scanned all the details on Chloe, (hmmm 27 and no boy-friend) who knows you could be in with a chance, I’d get get in there before Lembit pounces.
tim and gabble are sorely missed.
coldstone and wage slave are just stupid.
tim and gabble at least make you laugh.
319.
You’ve been reading some veey interesting cereal packets recently. By your logic, we should ignore fascists’ gas chambers because they were more than 50 years ago?
Nuclear engineers are largely little boys who are so up themselves with their games that they are lazy and have a Bliarite approach to truth, even when found out. The trouble with high-risk low-probability modelling is that when you are wrong, you do not get any chance to do the recalculations.
310. I’m in the same unfortunate position. My Pc is on it’s last leg’s, actually on crutches. Have decided to get an iMac; moving back to my first love.
from Conhome..
Howard Stoate, MP for Dartford since 1997, has announced today that he will not be seeking re-election at the next general election. Dr Stoate says in his statement that he does not feel post-Expensesgate that he would be able to continue doing some work as a GP whilst remaining an MP and that he therefore has taken the decision not to seek re-election.
This a boost to Conservative candidate Gareth Johnson (pictured), who fought Dartford in 2005, losing then by a mere 706 votes. He now requires a swing of 1% to gain the seat, having been reselected in October 2006. He recently wrote the Diary of a PPC feature for Conservative Home about his campaign to win the seat at his second attempt.
Jonathan Isaby
337.
And the misnamed mirthios (IQ 13 3/4)? We are left wondering how his soreness was imparted from tim and gabble. Worth about a nanosecond of computation time?
Comment 40 FPT - Is Craig Murray of Uzbekistan and Norwich North the same one who is lecturing on Out of Body Experiences and Near Death Experiences at the Society for Psychical Research?
No, I am not. Neither am I the film producer, ice hockey player, comedian, aviation photographer, naturalist, police chief, or Duke of Atholl, who all have the same name. Interesting you didn’t choose any of them, but attempt to portray me as someone of curious views.
If the Celt-battalions can not match our Fuijian and Gurkha heroes - let alone the Saffers/Septics - should not England f3ck-0ff those whom care more about drugs and peadophilia…?
336.
I wonder how many ‘beards’ are employed on the parliamentary payroll? Martin could start an agency?
341 - thanks for the confirmation, although it really wasn’t needed.
342 - Whatever you’re talking about, those don’t appear to be very fluffy thoughts; more like dark, depressive ones.
coldstone - thankyou for your concern. I have yet to receive my deposit money from my publishers - gah! - so have been unable to buy until now (it should - finally - arrive this week).
So I have been watching the stirrings of the London property market with some disquiet.
However there are mixed signals. I have definitely seen an uptick in certain prices, yet other properties are still coming down sharply in value. The only thing estate agents say for certain, as far as I can see, is that supply is limited - and this is helping sellers.
Eventually something has to give. If unemployment keeps rising, there will be more forced sales, and prices might fall overall - and sharply.
However if I see the right property now, I am probably gonna jump.
Sorry for the boring post. But you did ask!
338 - Eh? By your logic we should all avoid flying because the de Havilland Comet suffered from metal fatigue…
PTP. Goodwood tip
“5.10 No selection but the draw heavily favors high numbers”
The winner was in trap 20. I picked 3rd and 4th based on your tip out of traps 17 and 18
Made up a bit for earlier
thanks
336/343 I read a report in one of the papers that Labour canvassers had been pointing to Chloe’s elfin looks and lack of male partner and constrasting the married status of their candidate - odd that progressive parties enjoy making claims on opposition candidates sexuality.
The article (can’t remember which paper) did mention a boyfriend.
343 - Is there still that much demand for beards? Gordon has had his for quite some time now and doesn’t appear to want a replacement.
In the meantime, the overall market for them appears to be diminishing quite rapidly.
224.
“Bookies Predict Rantzen Won’t Make It To Luton Poll”
I see on ConHome that the Tory candidate in Luton is suggesting that the people of Luton South supporting Esther may be inducing an unfortunate suffering of labour by the back door. I nominate Chloe Smith to give Mr Huddlestone the biology lesson which he so obviously needs. He’s no relation to the bonkers bishop is he?
349.
“Labour canvassers had been pointing to Chloe’s elfin looks and lack of male partner”
Perhaps the myopic red filth were desperate to provide a better class of elf ’service’?
MP to quit over second job rules
Labour MP Howard Stoate has said he will quit at the next election because new second jobs rules mean he will no longer be able to practise as a GP.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8173135.stm
Another bites the dust!
“It is apparent that Labour candidates standing for Parliament at the next election will be expected to give up their outside jobs if they are elected,” he said.”
Howard Stoate MP to stand down..
http://www.howardstoate.com/constituency-news/statement-from-dr-howard-stoate-mp.html
350.
“Is there still that much demand for beards?”
The Blunkett-Clarke ‘new Tory’ axis seem to think so. They seem to go down well with those who insert the odd column in the Spectator. Surprised Boris hasn’t got one, really.
353
I must be getting too slow in my old age………
357.
Own up, you were too busy weaselin away on your tim website to get your stoate broadcast in on time!
346
Nothing about you is boring Seant!
Best of luck.
349. I almost wish Chloe would come out as gay just to expose these ‘progressive’ wankers. And this after all that nonsense put about by Labour over the Gay Pride March and efforts to paint the Tories as homophobic. Labour truly are the nasty party now.
324. Antifrank. The free advertising they have got will have more than paid for any costs in producing the beer. They have done very well out of it indeed, previous versions of same beer at 12% and 14% drew no attention whatsoever. A quick run of 3000 bottles at 18% and they are getting advertised everywhere.
358
If truth be known….. my wife was talking to me about hens and cockerels…..!!!!
Aother Labour MP retires.
http://www.howardstoate.com/constituency-news/statement-from-dr-howard-stoate-mp.html
They’re going, going, gone, we hope.
352
Ah! but she could always make up for it by drinking 14 pints a day, like a real man does, ‘Ooop North’
353/355 - see 340.
I can confirm that we too picked up that New Labour canvassers were definitely spreading rumours that Chloe is lesbian. Obviously I don’t care in the least about her private life, but for what it’s worth I doubt that she is.
Simon at 136: yes, I take your point - he wasn’t parachuted in by someone else. But he parachuted himself in, in the sense that he’d never so far as I know set foot in Erewash before. Has Esther been to Luton before she started taking an interest in standing?
I did the same in Broxtowe in 1997, so it’s not something I think is a terrible sin. But independents are basically trading on their personal qualities, and if those don’t include any previous interesrt in the area it’s a snag.
JohnF at 144: you may have missed the “dizzy says” debunking of the Telegraph piece posted by Oracle on the last thread. The Telegraph alleges it was a change sneaked in by a secret committee conspiring with John Bercow, without debate and only made known after the recess. In fact, it was introduced with all-party agreement after debate 3 months ago, and punlished in the previous edition of the “Green Book”. The Telegraph simply seems not to have noticed.
Whether it’s a good idea is another matter, but note that for MPs behaving normally (i.e. staying in a London flat 3 days a week during session time) it only comes to about £2000 a year, and replaces other allowances for everyday away-from-home expenses.
O/T.
There’s a strange woman in the Times today trying to spin that Chamereon’s Bullingdon crew are like ‘Friends’. Is this a photo of this Twitty bird?:
“http://www.totallypimpedout.net/Graphics/Cartoon_Characters/images/Tweety_Bird_003.gif”
(I’m a tort o’ Tory puddie tat?)
I recall an article from an old Etonian contemporary of Chammy and Boris this week (’The Wire’ thespian Dominic West) who said about becoming a politician:
“being an old Etonian, I’d probably be welcomed with open arms. But I’d be the worst kind of politician, I wouldn’t be in politics to help make a better world, I’d be doing it to enjoy my own power which is why most people are in politics.”
Couldn’t we have a bout of such delightful honesty on behalf of his ‘clients’(sic) from Mr Coulson?
PS Dom West also wrote how nobody in his circle could understand what a nice girl like Sam Cameron saw in her husband. But I am far to gallant to report this.
O/T.
There’s a strange woman in the Times today trying to spin that Chamereon’s Bu11ingdon crew are like ‘Friends’. Is this a photo of this Twitty bird?:
http://www3.ntu.edu.sg/home/lklim/TweetyBirdBlueb.jpg
(I’m a tort o’ Tory puddie tat?)
I recall an article from an old Etonian contemporary of Chammy and Boris this week (’The Wire’ thespian Dominic West) who said about becoming a politician:
“being an old Etonian, I’d probably be welcomed with open arms. But I’d be the worst kind of politician, I wouldn’t be in politics to help make a better world, I’d be doing it to enjoy my own power which is why most people are in politics.”
Couldn’t we have a bout of such delightful honesty on behalf of his ‘clients’(sic) from Mr Coulson?
PS Dom West also wrote how nobody in his circle could understand what a nice girl like Sam Cameron saw in her husband. But I am far to gallant to report this.
366
From the FT.
The new Speaker has let it be known that he will investigate the fact that MPs can claim the new £25 a day subsistence allowance without receipts. John Bercow will hold a meeting with the members estimate committee next week to raise the issue. “He is conscious of public concern,” says a spokeswoman.
368.
Words like ‘door’ ’shut’ ‘bolted’ and ‘horse’ come to mind
363- Given the nature of his seat, it looks like he chose to spare himself the indignity of defeat.
Howard Stoate MP, (Labour, Dartford) will stand down at the general election in order to continue working as a doctor following the introduction of limits on second jobs.
And I thought the ‘second job’ wheeze was an attack on the Tories, oh well, unforeseen consequences and all that.
I’ve added him to the list which is now running at 68 Labour MPs to stand down at the next G.E.
371 and 100 or so more at the will of the electorate…
I’m sure you’ll all be relieved to hear that Iain Dale’s lost sheep will soon be returning to their rightful fold:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
That’s blog power for you.
I’m sorry to see a Doctor go, suppose he’ll be replaced by some ‘Ark B’ prat.
Bercow is investigating the £25 per diem that MP’s can claim.
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/07/speaker-to-intervene-over-subsistence-allowance/
Probably wants to know how he didn’t know about it, and is now claiming back pay from April.
Poll alert
I’ve just had confirmed that the July ComRes poll for the Indy voting intention figures will be published at 10pm.
I have an embargoed copy and will set up a thread for that time.
As I think I indicated a week or so ago ComRes has made changes to its past vote weighting formula which has eased almost all the concerns that I had about the pollster.
In the meantime you’ll have to wait until 10pm.
374 – Coldstone, Ignoring your dig at Ms Smith, I quite agree that losing a Doctor from the HofC is very sad to hear. What ever one regards the merits of practicing MPs be they Doctor, Lawyer or Banker, they all add expertise to the house.
Last five ComRes polls:
16 July 2009 Con 38% Lab 23% LD 22%
28 June 2009 Con 36% Lab 25% LD 19%
19 June 2009 Con 39% Lab 22% LD 18%
7 June 2009 Con 38% Lab 22% LD 20%
31 May 2009 Con 30% Lab 22% LD 18%
Can the Tories break 40%? Can Labour break 25%? Can the Lib Dems stay above 20%?
71 Having reread my own comments on that site, I see they were somewhat unfair. Luton South does have its attractive areas, such as Stopsley, Stockwood Park, and Wardown Park, although it also has its share of grotty areas too.
Demograhically, it ought be moving into the safe Labour column, but I suspect they’ll lose it this time, at any rate.
378 - All this and more will be revealed in the next episode of SOAP!
378 antifrank - Could this be the poll that was rumoured on Twitter at the weekend?
Watch for another mid-teens national opinion poll lead for the Conservatives this w/e with fresh evidence of weakening fringe party support1:29 AM Jul 24th from web
http://twitter.com/henrymacrory
(Mind you, since it’s ComRes, I’m not going to get too excited either way)
181.Plato, ohh, something for the girls. But I don’t think that model has any problems with love handles.
381.Surely that must have referred to the YouGov poll we all missed in the People on Sunday night? It was a 15% lead for the Tories?
383 Christina
Good point - I’d forgotten about that.
Like most others, I cant really understand Mike’s rant at the BBC. Murray was a slightly bonkers candidate who didnt do very well in the election. Treating him like an also-ran seems to have been a very sensible course of action. For those complaining about the coverage of UKIP - how many here, at the time the debate, expected UKIP to outpoll the Greens (I know some did very close to polling day)? Hindsight is wonderful.
383, 384 - That poll had others static, so doesn’t fit the second half of ConHome’s billing.
I’m quite interested to note from the above that with exception of the end of May aberration, ComRes’s figures are rather more static than I had recalled. Con 38%, Lab 23%, LD 20% or thereabouts would be very much in line with what we’ve had before from ComRes.
385. Neil - the BBC couldn’t even bring themselves to mention the UKIP result even AFTER it was announced.
Wouldnt it be ironic if Comres were the most accurate polster come the GE…………………
MIKE SMITHSON
is it posssible to reevaluate the last dozen or so Comres polls with the “New improved Persil Automatic” ICM style methodolody?
385, you can argue the toss regarding Murray, but if Rantzen’s treated differently we’ll know why.
UKIP continue to be treated badly by the state-subsidised lefty propaganda machine. Amusingly, this doesn’t seem to be stopping them doing well.
389. Interesting comment about UKIP Morris Dancer. The BBCs line does seem to be getting ever more divergent from popular opinion - at least as far as we can quantify it. It would be really interesting to see some proper research on how influential the BBC (and media) are. I tend to be a media watcher more than a poll watcher, but am increasingly getting the impression the two are getting ever further out of kilter.
389 The problem is not so much the absolute level of the ComRes figures, it’s the fact that changes in their adjustments mean you can’t compare one figure with the next. But maybe now they’ll settle down and stick to the weighting which Mike refers to at 376.
385 Neil - Actually, since UKIP got almost the same number of votes in 2005 in NN as the Greens (2.4% vs 2.7%), and did so well in the Euros, I’d say they would have a legitimate gripe at the preferential treatment given by the BBC to the Greens.
377. Interesting! I suspect that could then mean that the Tories will be back in the 40%’s.
Conhome twitter: “tune in at 10pm for some good news for the Tory Party from ICM”
395 - you left out the local results…
398, the BBC left out the by-election result when it came to UKIP.
397. Ooops! Sorry, it doesn’t mention ICM.
378 according to the DT “it has been agreed by a small committee of MPs *chaired by John Bercow*, the new Speaker”!
The new blog at the Telegraph: http://my.telegraph.co.uk/thomashogg
398 – I think you are rather missing the point Neil, whether anyone here “expected UKIP to outpoll the Greens” is beside the point. The fact is that several pollster before the election reported UKIP ahead of the Greens.
On what basis did the BBC decide to report on the Green party, rather than UKIP and then compound the fault even after the election result?
The BBC have a habit of referencing the Green party even though ‘others’ have polled better. It simply is not their place to do so and stinks of bias.
Just been YouGov’d - attitudes to the elderly, views on economic competence for parties and views on prospects for the next 3 months.
402 - The BBC see the Greens as enlightened and UKIP as cranks [some would say the opposite is true].
No doubt they consider it part of their public-service mandate to report accordingly.
402 - “whether anyone here “expected UKIP to outpoll the Greens” is beside the point”
Indeed, coverage should not be based on what we expect. But they do sometimes have to make judgements. Probably this time they were looking at the striking local election results from just before the by-election. Or maybe the fact that the Greens had elected reps in the constituency whereas UKIP didnt. Was their thinking very different from many of the rest of us? Or, without hindsight, was it obviously wrong?
404 - Please dont join the ranks of the paranoid cranks! Consider the coverage the BBC gave both parties in the run-up to the Euros. They (rightly on the basis of past results) included UKIP representatives with the 3 main parties when Greens or others were not represented on different radio or other panels.
Guido reporting a big lead for the Tories:
http://order-order.com/2009/07/28/high-tory-versus-trad-modern-cameroon/#comment-207429
406
If its true, Martin? If its true, then Labour should be cr*pping themselves. That said, I dont think any poll info on Guido has proved to be true.. yet…
407, one was correct. I think about 57 have proved wrong though.
406 Very amusing to see PB pack on Guido
408. Maggie Thatcher Fan July 28th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
It could make sense if it was true as the government had several blows over the weekend, the by-election, the economy, Barry Sheerman & Co. uping the ante, more troop deaths etc.
406. Well we’ve learnt in the past not to take alleged polls on Guido seriously, but IIIIFFFF it’s true Baxter, with the usual caveats, would give;
CON 394
LAB 169
LD 57
Tory majority of 138.
Highlights of this would see Labour wiped out completely in Edinburgh and Cardiff, and with a complete wipeout between London and Birmingham. This poll would also see Sunderland Central go blue, the first one of those I’ve seen for a while.
Well they’ve got the pollster and publication right for a change so seems likely…
410. Plato July 28th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Its funny!
I have seen it before!
406.It’s ComRes it doesn’t matter anyway
412. The Oncoming Storm July 28th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
NP would win in Broxtowe because the Tories for Palmer would enable him to squeek it!
I can just see Nick singing farewell and i do spanish lady to many Labour MPs on dissolution!
*If* these are true [and only OGH knows!]
Tories 42%
Labour 23%
Lib Dems 21%
then it will be most entertaining at 22:01 this evening!
Plato July 28th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Certainly will - I have to walk down to the shop for some dinner now! My Legs are getting really tonned at least!
There is a fairly simple reason why she won’t get many votes - most of the constituents won’t have the faintest idea she is standing.
Mike had made it clear the Comres has changed its methodology to (as I understand it) mirror ICM. It would be wrong to dismiss Comres out of hand (though I have indeed done so in the past)
I wouldn’t trust anything posted on Guido, though from Con Home it seems the news is good. (Conservative wise).
Interesting to compare anonymous’s prediction on Guido with my typical result for ComRes at 389. The only bit that stands out is that the Conservatives would be polling well ahead of what they’ve been achieving in ComRes polls recently. Since we have the ConHome tweet strongly suggesting that the Tories have done well in this poll, I’m going to do something really stupid and suggest that this may be the once in a blue moon occasion that a poll “leak” on Guido might be right.
Typical Tory Herd reaction, dismiss a bad result from ComRes as ‘un-reliable’ and then rubbish Guido the messenger.
Err for those of you that are missing Tim..!
421 Tyical tim type reaction. I am deemed to be a herd member but I didnt rubbish it. Timbot type posts Bah!
421 typical
WRT the ComRes poll, I’m more interested in what OGH has to say about the methodology. It would be good if they have sorted it out and then stick with whatever they choose. More pollsters, with reliable methods, is to be cheered.
424 Seconded - what I find bizarre is that ComRes conducted themselves in a way that made PBers take the pee completely and even award them a nickname.
That is surely a really bad credibility result for their brand. And it’s not as if PB has a small readership…
re 391. Yes - I could just about do that but I want a life.
There was just one poll in the past few weeks that was way out and that was the one just before the Euro elections. All the rest have been pretty much OK.
The ComRes figures on Guido are wrong
427 - Labour over-stated?
427 – If we started playing ‘20 Questions’ would you humour us?
427 - I knew I was being really stupid! Thank you.
421. I think we all ought to take the Guido figures with an extremely large pinch of salt. They look to me like the sort of ‘guesswork’ we get on here and elsewhere.
Sex scandal. Indian “style”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/5924853/British-born-Kashmir-minister-quits-over-sex-scandal.html
430 Not at all, your post on PB2 was very interesting!
433 - It’s far more daunting than I thought to post an article. I have absolutely no idea how our host finds the time and inspiration to write two or three excellent articles a day.
434, I found it surprisingly difficult to write the F1 article I did as well.
That said, I might write another should Schumacher return to Ferrari as a driver, albeit on a temporary basis. I hope he can. That would make things very interesting.
I think we can honestly say that Heff hasn’t warmed to Dave.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/5926966/David-Cameron-is-likely-to-win-but-dont-expect-a-Conservative-government.html
435 - Although I don’t have anything useful to say about Formula 1, I enjoyed your article. I shall be writing another - I think I’m going to aim for about one a week, if that’s not overdoing it. I found it very helpful in formulating my own views.
436
When Heffalump writes:
“Some of you cling to the hope that Mr Cameron knows what must be done, and is sparing details of the strong medicine until in power. Given that he has never exhibited the slightest scintilla of principle at any time during his political career , I cannot imagine what the evidence is for that. Some of you also write and berate me for attacking Mr Cameron’s politics, apparently confusing the role of newspaper columnist and propagandist. For the avoidance of doubt, I am the former. I want a Conservative government as much as any of you; I just happen to doubt that one is on offer.”
You know it is personal…
437, thanks
It was a second draft, the first was rather rambly and less betting-orientated.
If Schumacher does race for Ferrari, I’ll definitely cover that. I really hope he does though it’s an outside, but realistic, chance.
Michael White in the Guardian (in a rather boring piece on deputy PM’s) must have been planning his last two sentences for ages.
“But Brown still needs a Willie. Colleagues won’t let him have Balls.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jul/28/michael-white-harriet-harman-deputy
re 438. In other words Cameron has decontaminated the brand!
re 434. Sometimes I find myself without any inspiration whatsoever and produce rubbish. That’s when running the site gets hard. I felt like that yesterday.
I try to find the things that are topical, relevant and have a touch of controversy.
438 And which seat is Mr Heffer going to contest at the GE?!?!
Surely Witney must be his target
443 Plato
441 OGH
I like Heffer as an invariably correct contra indicator..
So far he’s been wrong on Iraq , economics, politics, global warming, the weather..
He’s an old man (not really physically) wishing the clock could go backwards to a golden age when the Conservatives were loved and fought and won wars and the natives knew their place.. in my view.
I read him religiously : it’s like self flagellation..(not that I have tried that!)
444, incidentally the enormo-haddock could be used for self-flagellation as well slapping your enemies.
Perhaps Martin Day and I could do a combined article on:
‘LDs: is it LOL or TEE HEE HEE at the next election’ or
‘Huhne and Clegg after Parliament’!
If the post at 368 is genuine, welcome to Pb.com Mr Murray - seems to bear out Mike Smithson’s claim to the best read poltical blog.
419. If ComRes are going to use ICM’s method will we be able to use Robert’s new predictor?
438 - The irony is that the Party that Hefferlump wants the Tories to become has not existed in decades if ever and would be entirely un-electable.
I really don’t understand his beef; it just looks petty and personal. Is he actually a party member?
Peter Hitchens is another right winger who has a visceral, seemingly personal hatred for Cameron. He was getting cheered and applauded on Any Questions last Friday with more enthusiasm I’ve heard on that show for an age. You can tell from Coldstone’s comments that the kind of right wing commentator the Left would usually excoriate, is happily tolerated so long as the victim is Dave. I suspect the BBC had Hitchens on for that very reason. Predictably the first question was designed to pour a bucket of cold water over the NN win which allowed Hitchens to get well stuck in.
I’m now apprehensive about ComRes - here’s hoping Cam is maintaining momentum despite this week’s rather nasty onslaught from some sections of the press.
449. It is personal.
449 Heffer is a UKIP supporter (they tend to appeal to those to whom Harold Macmillan was too modernist and the beginning of the dissolution of British values)
449, never hate your enemies. It clouds your judgement.
Ugh. I should be doing something productive, not quoting Corleone.
Sorry someone may already have said this but I am in a hurry. In my teens I remember a marvellous Beeb show at 9 AM
447. Ave it 09 July 28th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Chris Huhne is going to become a trouser press salesman whilst Nick Clegg will enter the blow up doll industry in a big way!
See Rantzens on an ego trip?
She has no chance at all, with all parties standing.
450 - quite they’re the sort of people who berate Cameron for not being something he’s never claimed to be, and for not promising to implement an agenda he’s never suggested he will.
I read Heffers article, he has that strange Habit like Coldstone of going on about Heaths government!
People like Heffer are dumb, maybe the Tories are not what he wants but surely they are closer to him than Labour? Inless Heffer wants ID cards, The Euro, ever higher taxation and the like. It amases me that somebody who is supposed to be intellegent thinks the way he does!
Shame we dont have a W@nker smillie as heffer would get it everytime!
Computer went ballistic, sorry, but the programme I was thinking of was on a Saturday morning at 9 with a brilliant man as anchor, and the dreaded Esther was a side-kick, it was a news and funny programme and nothing in distance imagination touched it. I used to make coffee when Esther was on.
Hitchens hates the fact that Portillo got K & C instead of him!
Mind you if his writing about the Tories was as negative about the Tories pre-selection at K & C i am not surprised!
458 That is a smiley that is very wanting
460. Gwendolyn July 28th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Did Dick ever pop up on that early morning program?
Belatedly…
PtP. 5.45 George Benjamin 5/1 ew
Another result !
Not a bad day at the races after all
90 mins to the poll…
I say:
Con - loads
Lab - not a lot
LDs -
464, I still want one poll to beat the 28 point lead in summer 2008.
Mind you, this year has seen Labour crash to 19 in one poll, which is almost as good.
My partner and I had a rather nasty experience with the Hefferlump at the check out of a supermarket in central London. He tried to queue jump and was unbelievably rude when we stood our ground. He had a kind of ‘the peasants should give way’ attitude. Very unpleasant looking guy too. My partner just said ‘who was that horrible man?’ - without knowing who he was.
459 – Gwendolyn, before That’s Life took off, Ester Rantzen often co- presented on the shows predecessor ‘Braden’s Week’, with Barnard Braden (he was Canadian, ring any bells?) this would be about 1968ish.
467. Oscar July 28th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
I have never liked him! He is the sort to shit bricks he is that uptight! Complete cnut! Selfish B@st@rd!
From previous thread. To describe an ‘account exec’ as a salesman is misleading. A good account exec-or account director or director of communications-has the job of selling someone elses idea. Good or bad. Obviously their judgement is also important. This is an assortment of opinions of him from his time at Carlton (from Wikipedia). In fairness these could be said of most people in that profession.
“The company chairman described him as “board material”. Others who had to work with him were less complimentary though. Senior Daily Telegraph journalist Jeff Randall said he would not trust Mr Cameron “with my daughter’s pocket money” and that he “never gave a straight answer when dissemblance was a plausible alternative”, while Sun business editor Ian King described him as a “slippery individual”"
Incidentally Mike my first job was as an assistant photographer at Carlton Studios which were bought out by the Green brothers while I was there and it became Carlton Communications which became a part of ITV. I’m not sure that their offices didn’t stay in Frederick Close just off Stanhope Place near Marble Arch which is where the studios were.
466 I’m not surprised at all - an odious example of old snob Toryism.
If he was a Spitting Image puppet he’d be purple.
Easter Ransom reminds me of Efile from Eastenders!
I’m working in Luton tomorrow - I will carry out a Luntz style focus group (tpfkargetting?) and report back to this house.
Suffice to say from many recent visits to Luton make me think the Tories would have a huge struggle to win; I’ve asked about Moran’s expenses before and been greeted with a shrug of the shoulders from most people there, as the politicians are these other-worldly folks. Rantzen will be far bigger news than anything in Norwich or Damien Green, and assuming she makes it to polling day, I would rather be on Peter the Punter’s side of the bet than councilhousetory’s.
ComRes poll results
——————-
Con ??%
Lab ??%
LDs ?%
466. Weirdly I witnessed a similar incident in a supermarket a long way from London.
468. Yup - that seems just about right Martin!
Plato July 28th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
I asked my mate what he was thinking at the time when the Heffer like said that and he said he was thinking he was a F*cking Cnut!
476 Martimn any news on the car vandals?
Hope there’s no swearing on here…
Y’see I like my Tories to be Tories, so I’m rather fond of ‘ol Heff. Hitchens I’m not sure about, think he’s still bitter about the fact that his brother got the brains and he got the lo…, Oh sh*t!
440. It’s such an obvious line.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/28/does-brown-have-too-many-deputies/
I can’t believe a serious journalist would use it. Not that we’d know from the evidence so far.
Con gain ComRes!
479. Christopher Hitchens is brilliant, Peter is a completely bonkers.
Sticking my neck out on the “Guido Comres Leak” - (a) LD figure too high and (b) Conservatives 20 points ahead of Labour??? Could be wrong of course!
A funny thing about Peter Hitchens was when he did a programme on Nelson Mandela’s Presidency and criticised him … from the left!
My prediction
Con 40%
Lab 24%
LD 21%
.
.
.
Green, not very much at all.
480 Obvious perhaps but a hat tip to your good self from Mr white would have been polite
436. Quite simply if Hefferlump thinks Cameron is wrong then Cameron is right. Heffer would far rather see the Tories suffer more 2001 style humiliations than see a modern, centrist party take power.
“Labour MP Howard Stoate has said he will quit at the next election because new second jobs rules mean he will no longer be able to practise as a GP.”
Rubbish! He is a total NULab time-server quitting because he has no chance in Dartford. Sent both his boys to the local Grammar school - he was even a Governor himself till 97 then gradually distanced himself from the school when his second son left around 04/05.
Neither he nor his awful pushy wife will be missed in the area.
FPT: Afghanistan: Two seperate things.
1) Are there avoidable casualties being taken because of Govt. mistakes and inaction.
2) Are the unavoidable casualties from being there balanced against the reasons for being there.
It’s tricky because a lot of the people who get most angry about 1) are the sort of people who don’t like any kind of negative talk when the forces are in the middle of being shot at. However I don’t think talking about Afg is any kind of problem for Cameron (or Clegg for that matter) as long as he’s careful and focused on the avoidable casualty angle.
Also but not strictly relevant:
Simon Weston isn’t a victim - he could of been but he decided not to be and that’s what makes him so impressive (imo).
I always find it strange how someone like Kipling understood people like my uncles so spot on.
From even more previous thread: there’s a chunk of people who consider themselves “Labour” but don’t consider the current Labour government is “Labour”. It’s hard to know how many that is but they’ll distort polls a bit because they’re used to replying “Labour” and they mean it but they mean something different to what the pollster means.
The last Comres was 15-16 July in the Independent on Sunday 38/23/22/16… which only adds up to 99 but thats just rounding. If Con Home say its good its got to be better than 15% so my guess is 42/24/19
“I’m a parliamentary candidate - get me out of here”
487. A replacement for Edward Heath - perfectly wrong.
381 As antifrank posted last Comres had fiedwork finished on 16 july.New poll should therefore have impact of NN and Government criticism on Afganhistan.Thus would expect drop in labour supprt and Lib dem with Tories bouncing a bit
I’ll go for this result
Con 41%+3,Lab21%-2,Lib 21%-1,Oth 17% nc.Just a slim possibility that Labour might fall below Lib Dems.
455. Am I alone in thinking that the actual purchase of a trouser press for a man who spends a large amount of time at a second home in London, is actually pretty darn good use of the allowance money.
488. Do the second job rules actually specificy maximum hours worked in a second job?
491 - Martin Bell dispenses words of advice to La Rantzen @CIF today. The first comment was;
“I’m a celebrity candidate - get me into here”
poll prediction….Con 40 Lab 23 LD 17
494. If he had spent the money on giant space artillery and mutated haddock……
FPT - Is Craig Murray of Uzbekistan and Norwich North the same one who is lecturing on Out of Body Experiences and Near Death Experiences at the Society for Psychical Research?
FPT, were you having an Out of Body Experience when you wrote that utter bilge? The evidence suggests you were.
New thread set to be published in 5 minutes
494 Multi-millionaire, multiple home owner gets taxpayer to buy his trouser press and Hob-Nobs? In the rules but……
Sorry, my last comment should be addressed to archroy. Perhaps it could be altered in moderation?
498 Still haven’t got my head round this. Why would anyone want to fire a giant haddock into outer space?
Its up on the new thread……………..
487. Just read the comments about Heffer’s article on ConHome. Blimey - there’s an awful lot of Tories out there with some kind of death wish on the party, judging by support for the Heffasaur.
508 - I doubt they’re tories
A lot of UKIP trolls go onto the ConHome site.
The history of celebrity candidates isn’t very good even when they stand as a candidate for a mainstream party. Jimmy Edwards and Ted Dexter both stood for the Tories and lost.