Was it Darling who was really the saviour of the world?
July 20th, 2009
How’s this version going to go down at Number 10?
There’s a must-read column by Julian Glover in the Guardian this morning in which he tries to unpack those critical few weeks last autumn when the banking system seemed on the point of collapse.
The following gives a sense of it:-
“….The turning point came on Friday 10 October, a day of market panic. Over the next few days the Treasury engineered its emergency part nationalisation. Few would can deny that Darling and his new city minister, Paul Myners, handled it with determination.
But who was leading? It is not clear that it was Brown, whose earlier apparent decisiveness over Lloyds/HBOS, and later the fiscal stimulus, has become associated in many minds with the bank bailout. Nonetheless, he was feted in Brussels and America, giving him the confidence to enter the happiest and most energetic part of his premiership. Paul Krugman asked his famous question: “Has Gordon Brown … saved the world financial system?”
A more realistic assessment might suggest that Darling and the Treasury saved two giant British banks, with Brown’s personal contribution still unquantifiable.”
Ouch.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Oh behave!
Sounds right. Darling’s dull but sensible, and Brown’s an indecisive lunatic.
Why is it Alastair Darling being feted, his PSBR forecasts are as accurate as one of Nostradamus’s.
Not involving Brown is the right decision at any time.
George Osborne interview in the FT(I posted the link yesterday):
“(…)Intriguingly, he believes that Mr Darling may be a useful ally to a future Tory government, if the chancellor uses his last months before the election to lay the foundations for a return to sound finances and if Mr Brown can be prevented from grabbing the reins.
“I detect in him someone who wants to use the next nine months to good effect,” he says. “Now I hope that’s the case, and I hope the prime minister allows him to do it.””
Seems fair enough.
Although I’m pleased to that Mike accepts decisive action by Darling saved the Wests Economy.
Imagine George Osborne in charge.
6 - Tim, so tell me about how accurate Darlings PSBR and Growth figures have been?
I believe according to him, the recession has ended or will be ending in the next two months?
In a way, I feel sorry for Darling.
He has the boss from Hell and inherited an economy on the rocks from said boss.
In another way, though, I don’t feel sorry for him at all.
3.5% GDP contraction this year he said.
Coblers.
Any government would have done the same: there was no choice.
So, credit to the Treasury and Darling for not messing it up. But basically they were simply doing their job.
is this the same Gordon Brown who announced to the world that he was a large seller of gold?
7 - I suspect Darling will be a lot closer on the depth and length of the recession than the hysterical Osbornes predictions that ours would be the worst in the world.
Big news from Iran:
Khatami (a former President, and the predecessor of Ahmadinejad) has called, publicly, for a referendum on the legitimacy of the election
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Iran-Poll-Former-President-Mohammad-Khatami-Calls-For-Referendum-Over-Disputed-Election/Article/200907315341831?f=rss
9 - That’s a little grudging. The Treasury, Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown dun well on this. I don’t rate either Alistair Darling or Gordon Brown as economic colossi, but they did act decisively at a time when others were not acting decisively. They deserve some credit for that and we can thank our lucky stars that the Treasury remains a formidable beast.
13, disagree. They prevaricated for months over nationalising Northern Rock and over recapitalisation. Cameron had called for the latter months beforehand.
11 - Only in terms of PSBR, or do you dispute under Darling, we will have the worst PSBR in the developed world?
Mike, didn’t you catch that C4 Dispatches programme a little while ago? IIRC, way back at the time of the crisis when Brown was a hero, at least one European Financial Minister did point out that any credit should be laid at Darling rather than Brown’s door.
Anyway, when Darling was retelling the story on that programme, the highlight for me, was when he notable mentioned that they had to go a wake Gordon up to get him to sign off on the deal. Same old story, whether as PM or Chancellor, Brown liked to take the credit and the headline from his colleagues. Nuff said.
Darling seems much less interested in political point scoring, suggesting he has more time to actually oversee the economy rather than Brown who manipulated it to get one over the Tories. It wouldn’t be surprising therefor that Darling actually listened to his advisers.
Imagine if Gordon Brown in charge at the Exchequer when it hit the fan…
However I am not so sure what is so great about saving the word simply by throwing huge amounts of money at the problem. Any fool could sign up the UK taxpayer to several decades worth of debt - guaranteed on their labour - and at the expense of investment in NHS, schools, defences, etc. A true saviour of the world would have achieved this without the need for a massive bailout and would not have left the UK with a growing budget defecit.
IMF Budget Defecit Forecasts
G20 average: 6.6%
UK: 9.8% (to 10.9% in 2010)
Japan: 9.6%
US: 8.8%
France: 6.5%
Germany: 6.1%
The real hero is Mervyn King, who just before the budget this year, warned Brown and Darling we shouldnt borrow anymore.
Interesting counter-factual: if Alistair Darling hadn’t been flipping, he would now be looking like a very credible leadership contender.
18 - Antifrank, our Scottish posters, seem to think it’ll be a miracle if Darling holds his seat at the election.
Alistair Darling is a better man than Brown will ever be - not that that’s a particularly high bar.
He has had awful expenses, and was extremely culpable in the laughable borrowing and growth forecasts in the budget.
However (politically rather than economically) he may be thanking his lucky stars for swine flu. It gives him a perfect excuse when his figures turn out, in the Pre-Budget Report, to be full of crap.
Also, being unsackable, he will hopefully try to do the right thing for the country in the few months till the election instead of focussing on the day to day media cycle like Brown.
Morus! Temper,temper! Swearing and profanity. Tsk,tsk.
I have other things to do other that look at PB all day, consequently I was not on line during your rant, or I would have given tit for tat.
13 antifrank - Yes, it came out more grudging than I intended.
It was Vince Cable - if he hadn’t been on Newsnight for weeks afterwards saying “I told you so” the FTSE would have plunged below 5000.
14 - How many policies on Northern Rock did Osborne have?
11…neither of them understands the “boom/bust” cycle. they are both just guessing.
In actual fact Darling deserves the Credit (If any should be taken), lets remember the decision that Brown interceded on HBOS/Lloyds TSB. A huge mistake for jobs and the future competetion in that sector.
Brown has created misery for folk both now through job losses and in the future through lack of banking competion especially in the Mortgage/Loans/personal banking market. This also has feed through effects to various insurances as well ranging from life insurance to car insurance.
Darling as C of E would have been presented with the choices to rescue the banks - Brown just chose to muscle in on it to try and take the ‘credit’ - That is what Brown does. It is ironic though that Labour screwed up the financial regulation of this country but they dont want to take responsibility for that, so really nobody should get the credit for anything! Labour have F*cked the economy and if anybody saved the world it was whoever saved the scandanavian banks in the 1990’s!
Brown, Darling and Myners are just economic nitwits, a schoolleaver could have done a better job than these 3, then again they are Labour politicians and what have Labour always done to the country ? BANKRUPT IT ! BECAUSE BEING BANKRUPT OF IDEAS WILL LEAD TO BANKRUPTCY AND SURELY IT HAS.
Interesting information,
Police ‘not using CCTV properly’
“Det Ch Insp Mick Neville of the Met police’s CCTV unit said most forces do not have systems to retrieve, process and distribute CCTV crime scene images.”
“Officers in some London boroughs are failing to solve ANY tier one and two crimes such as serious assaults and robberies using CCTV, he added.”
“The London borough of Wandsworth has as many CCTV cameras (1,113) as Dublin City Council, the Police departments of Johannesburg and Boston and the City of Sydney authority combined.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8158942.stm
Darling did OK, but the Tories would have done as well. The major reason why the US had difficulty was the separation between executive and legislature. Because of the in built majority in the legislature and the fact that the Tories supported the bank bailout (remember that Cameron acted in a bi-partisan manner and was repaid by a spiteful comment in the final answer of PMQs) it’s always going to be easier for the UK to pass “difficult” legislation.
Putting in extra money and guaranteeing interbank loans was a no-brainer. The reason why this proved difficult in the US is that it was politically unpopular and a lot of GOP Congressmen saw an opportunity to pander. Remember that the bank bailout was unpopular here as well - lots of people wondering why we gave money to banks and not to troubled industry.
The man who actually did save the Western world - and remains utterly unthanked for it, is the Irish PM, who gave the blanket guarantee on all Irish banks and helped to start the stabilisation of the interbank markets - although people remained worried about system stability - Ireland isnt big enough to guarantee that - it required US support for their banks and especially for AIG to provide that.
So Darling gets some thanks - he was the man on the spot and he took the big decision. But sadly for Labour it was politically unpopular. The Tories did their bit, supporting the government decision. It’s a bit ridiculous for Labour to try to make political capital out of this - firstly it’s unpopular and secondly they had bi-partisan support, everyone had looked over the abyss and decided they didnt fancy playing chicken - unlike the idiots in Congress.
24, Tory policy was to wind the business down. Labour policy was to prevaricate for 6 months so the position became far worse and then to nationalise.
Still, if it had been better regulated maybe it wouldn’t've happened.
*******************************************************************
Martin Day July 20th, 2009 at 1:38 pm Your comment is awaiting moderation.
***************************** 
******************************************************************
Would be obliged if someone could release that!
Darling? No. It was the brains in the Treasury, who would have advised any politician to do the same, and any Chancellor would have had to take that advice.
13.antifrank, doing their job?? According to that same Dispatches programme, we were a weekend away from not being able to get any money out of the cash machines! Osborne was on the programme, and its clear that he was also well aware of the severity of the situation.
Did anyone else just see a new thread up?
31 - So the Treasury gets the credit for keeping the banks going and Darling gets the blame for the Budget forecasts? Seems fair…
OMG! Sir Alan Sugar to get peerage today
So say Downing Strasse.
34 - Brown Sugar time.
29…you give the regulators too much credit. they have no idea of how markets work. good market men do not work for the authorities!
31. LondonStatto. Yes, but someone has to take responsibility and it was a BIG responsibility to say “yes, let’s agree to back hundreds of billions of pounds of interbank debt”. Now, we say “oh, there was no risk.” At the time, it looked possible that RBS and/or HBOS would have been shut out of financial markets and the government would have added hundreds of billions in liabilities overnight. So, kudos to Darling. He looked really worried - as any normal person would when he ordered the bailout.
Did anybody catch Vince Cable on R5 earlier. Amonst other things, he said that Lloyds Banking Group will (in his opinion) have to be split up again in order to satisfy the Europe Competition authorities.
37: ken ‘So, kudos to Darling. He looked really worried - as any normal person would when he ordered the bailout.’
Agree but to be snarky, on a £150k state job, with an index linked, tax payer backed pension and a btl portfolio built off expenses he didn’t have that much to worry about.
What king of a swing to the Conservatives would a 3000 majority represent?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/5870513/Bernard-Henri-Lvy-French-Socialists-dead.html
Could this be the future for Labour?
38.Oracle, he is behind the curve there. Other comments getting caught in the mod trap.
Sorry link;
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100003930/dave-goes-all-out-in-norwich-north/
37. ken.
Sorry, but if the same recommendation would have been made to any Chancellor, and any Chancellor would have acted on that recomendation, I fail to see why the individual who happened to be there should get credit.
38, didn’t hear that. Would be interesting.
Mind you, Crazy Vince also lambasted Barclays for having the temerity to take private rather than public money.
34 weathercock. We look forward to similiar “Downing Strasse” comments when Cameron enobles Conservative placemen.
The terror threat has been lowered - surely a purely political move to show how effective our involvement in Afghanistan has been, following criticism of the government. We were told previously by the Mi5 chief that there are 200 terrorist cells in UK and 2000 terrorist, who could be preparing to attack us. Yesterday there was a severe threat. Today it is substantial. Nothing has changed since yesterday.
45. Yes - if only we’d bailed out Goldman Sachs we’d have been quids in. Good old hindsight Cable.
26.In actual fact Darling deserves the Cr€dit (If any should be taken), lets remember the decision that Brown interceded on HB0S/Ll0yds TSB. A huge mistake for j0bs and the future c0mpetet1on in that s€ct0r. Brown has created misery for folk both now through j0b l0ss€s and in the futur€ through lack of b@nking c0mp€tion especially in the M0rtgag€/L0@ns/p€rs0nal b@nking m@rket. This also has feed through effects to various 1nsurances as well ranging from l1fe 1nsurance to c@r 1nsurance.
Darling as C of E would have been presented with the choices to rescue the b@nks - Brown just chose to muscl€ in on it to try and take the ‘cr€dit’ - That is what Brown does. It is ironic though that Labour scr€wed up the f1nanc1al regulat1on of this country but they dont want to take responsibility for that, so really nobody should get the cr€d1t for anything! Labour have F*cked the economy and if anybody s@ved the world it was whoever saved the scandanav1an b@nks in the 1990’s!
45.Morris, Osborne is ahead of Vince on this, but more robust reasons, has been for a while.
38 - The Competition Commissioner, Neelie Kroes, said as much a couple of weeks ago. It is not very surprising and probably correct (both the politics and economics of it).
F*cking filters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I cannot post something despite putting in substitute letters!
I suggest you dont bother doing threads on this subject if you are going to be so tight arsed about sp@m!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As in McBride’s interview this morning where Gordon Brown’s prevarication over apologising for the 10p tax became “his quick apology” the hope has been that people forget the weeks preceding the bail out and the impression that “Gordon Brown saved the world” remains. As I understand it the story (from Telegraph, Guardian & Bloomberg) was:
In the months before the bail out the PM of Sweden had been touring the important capitals and banking centres talking about how Sweden had bailed out the banks in the 90’s and recomending this approach rather than the US one. In the weeks before the Bail Out Standard Chartered’s CEO Peter Sands, Finance Director Richard Meddings and Standard Chartered’s Averina Snow and Macer Gifford together with UBS’s Robin Budenberg and David Soanes of UBS put together a proposal based on the Swedish one, worked it through with Treasury civil servants then this went to Darling and his ministers.
In the same time frame both Osborne & Cable were talking about capitisation of banks, based on Swedish experience and possibly on contacts from people in the know floating idea with them - so there was pretty cross party agreement on the need for this, as demonstrated at the Conservative Conference by Cameron’s immediate support for the action when it happened.
The delay in announcing it was reportedly Gordon Brown not committing until Vadera went to see him on basis banks would fail Monday morning unless it was announced. Even then to get his agreement the bits about lending at same rate as 2007 and other bits and pieces had to be added. The Lloyds-HBOS merger was kept going as that was his sole part in the solution (possibly an attempt to avert action?) even though the need for that had gone with the bail out.
Its the Treasury & Standard & Chartered that should get the credit, with Sweden a supporting player. It was probably SC’s part in this that got Davies his current ministerial role.
39/44. JonathanD. LondonStatto.
Well some people might have refused to take responsibility for such a decision. Darling didnt. He stepped up to the crease and faced a terrifying delivery.
I know that he’s paid to take the big decisions, but under the circumstances when you know that if things go wrong, you’ll spend the rest of your life known as the “man who bankrupted Britain*”, I do think some credit is due.
I can think of events when faced with overwhelming evidence and the likelihood of disaster people ignored good advice - mainly in emerging economies.
* Unlike those who talk about national bankruptcy - which is now unlikely, during November if markets hadnt stabilised the UK could have faced a major crisis of confidence and a Reykjavik on Thames situation. Darling must have been acutely aware of this.
31. The Treasury was also fed ideas by senior private bankers, by the BoE and by the Federal Reserve.
Darling’s active role in the rescue was limited, Brown’s was nonexistent.
We’re all doomed anyway..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5857074/Fiscal-ruin-of-the-Western-world-beckons.html
I was actually mentioning the Lloyds thing, because of the possible political impact.
HBOS and Lloyds shot-gun wedding, resulting in Lloyds becoming an “infected” bank, then after loads of effort, time, money, job losses forcing these two institutions together, what would the fall out be if they then were forced apart again in a messy divorce?
Incidentally, rereading old pieces from when Northern Rock first started to go wrong is like looking into a different world. Here is John Rentoul writing about Brown’s performance
“In each case, it has been a rival in their own party who has been the most convincing witness. John Reid, who was home secretary three months ago, testifies to Brown’s strength. His announcement last weekend that he would be standing down as an MP was an admission that the new Prime Minister had made a good enough start to make it pointless for him to hang around. Reid is a clever judge of politics and knows that if and when Brown eventually stumbles, it will be to the next generation – David Miliband and Ed Balls – that the party will turn.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-the-tories-lion-has-failed-to-roar-464601.html
54 - “Darling’s active role in the rescue was limited”
He was probably too busy getting all the economic forecasts wrong.
43 - There’s a lot of pro-Tory spin in that piece. A Conservative victory north of 5,000 was what I expected at the outset, and is not particularly epic. A 3,000 majority for the Conservatives, if it materialises, should leave thoughtful Conservatives worried that they are not doing well enough.
56 - I think they’d be looking mainly at the branch network, which is where the OFT found concerns (and the Competition Commissioner years ago over Lloyds/Abbey) which were by-passed this time by the Government. This needn’t be wildly complex.
53. ken.
OK, so you don’t agree that any Chancellor would have done the same.
Fair enough.
57. You should try revisiting some of the PB threads from that time and read some of the incredibly out of touch with reality comments from e.g. Nick Palmer and Roger.
A ghost thread appeared between re-loads but the was gone. All you “firsters” need to be ready!
61.
Of course any chancellor would have done the same…. There wasn’t any choice in the matter. You don’t need to debate dead certainties !
Interesting that Cameron is to be going out knocking on doors on polling day in Norwich North.
Does this smack just a little bit of desperation in the Conservative camp?
I think it does. There is general agreement that the Labour vote is collapsing, but there is far less agreement on what is happening to it.
At the same time, the Conservatives are also victims (if that is the right word) of the MP expenses scandals, and there is no enthusiasm for the Conservative message as such. Not being Brown and not being Labour is all it amounts to.
On paper, the Conservatives ought to win. However, there are three or four strong challengers to mop up the former Labour/Gibson vote - those that bother to vote at least.
Everything depends on how the Labour vote collapses.
If it divides more or less evenly, the Tories are home with a romping majority. If it polarises around one candidate, the Tories could be in for a shock - and even for a disappointment.
The fact that Cameron is bothering to turn up again on pollling day suggests that the result is by no means cut and dried.
So if the Tories do eventually to end up with a large majority, they need to thank their lucky stars that the electoral system is still FPTP, where the winner (however small his lead) takes all.
“We need to foster peculiarity, idiosyncrasy, stubborn-mindedness, left-of-centre thinking.”
Ben Stephenson, BBC drama commissioning controller
Right wing dramas need not apply!
63 Ted. That’s the alternate reality thread. Strange posts there :
Nick Palmer goes hunting and votes BNP
Peter the Punter wears a suit and has a winner
tim’s at Royal Ascot in the royal parade
AH Matlock visits his cottage in North Korea
Stuart Dickson doesn’t post SNP news
Mark Senior is allergic to local election results
Martin Day is a Lib Dem activist
Jack W is 10.6 years old
65 - I read it exactly the other way around. If there was the slightest danger that the Tories would lose, David Cameron would be steering well clear. This is about making sure that the majority is as big as possible.
65. Pat Ryan: I think it does.
Funny, that.
65. Well you can great odds on anyone other than the Tories winning…have you got your bet on?
Is Cameron as timid as all that, Antifrank? Can’t he face a challenge?
Cameron = Gordon Brown (in MartinDay lingo).
67 - Last year, I think SeanT posted the idea of a Saturnalia end of year thread, where every poster had to argue convincingly from the opposite of their normal viewpoint. It would be great fun.
71 - Why would he avoidably associate himself with potential failure?
The position for the Lib Dem Martin Day has already been taken by wage slave.
71, Cameron’s been there a number of times, the only extraordinary part is him being there on polling day. Brown visited Glenrothes once to talk to a few loyalists, and hasn’t been to Norwich at all. [Lucky Norwich].
Tories can’t win any which way with Norwich North.
They lose - will be painted as absolute disaster for Cameron.
They win by a small majority - again disaster, Cameron not doing well enough to win a GE.
They get a stonking majority, ala Crewe - “oh well it was a protest vote against Gibson expenses, many will go back to Labour at the GE when image of Gibson and his expenses has died away and all about public spending cuts” will be the cry.
Did anyone else read in the weekend business press that Sir Fred Goodwin was a houseguest of the PM at Chequers around Easter last year? With friends like Mcdoom who needs enemies.
what exactly did Darling achieve? He was a crap councillor when he was on Edinburgh Council in the 1980s when the Labour administration almost bankrupted the city and has done little since to show a grasp of understanding economics.
His forced amalgamation of Lloyds and HBOS ruined a perfectly good bank. Shares worth £1200 before his banking marriage of convenience are now worth £25.
HBOS and RBS: the Government should have done what George Osborne and David Cameron said right at the start, guarantee investments and deposits and then break the banks up if they could not survive. They could have uncoupled the Halifax from BOS because within HBOS the different types of products were managed by different banks within the Group. The same could have happened at RBS. Then again if Gordon Brown hadn’t stripped the BOE of its regulatory powers, we probably wouldnt have seen much of the creative accounting which has now caused so much grief but which in 2007 was being lauded by Gordon Brown as a sign of how brilliant our banks were and of course he was holding out his hands to take and spend record breaking corporation tax receipts generated by the dodgy bank trading.
46. JackW, I will be as critical of Cameron if he enobles placemen, (neat turn of phrase) as I am of the fuhrers of Downing Strasse.
About time the Lords were abolished and became an elected Senate, or something similar.
Nonsense. Cameron = very astute Gordon Brown= political loser.
75 - If the Conservatives get a majority above 6,000, I will readily acknowledge that is an excellent result for them.
Eh? Did I read you right, MTF? Cameron = political loser?
Pull yourself together man. I don’t like Cameron, but he’s not that bad.
And how you can write “very astute Gorodon Brown” I just don’t know.
Even more of a loser than Cameron, IMHO.
80 lol
No, Antifrank. If the Gibson-Labour vote splits five ways (including Neo-Labour), then the Conservative ought to have a majority of at least 15,000.
If the vote does polarise (and I fear it may not), then a Tory majority of 5,000 would indeed be good for them.
79 It will be very interesting to see how the LibDems do in NN. If they can’t get a good result here, with all the effort they are putting in, it’s hard to see how they will take many seats off Labour at the GE. Conversely, if they are close to or beat Labour, that will give credence to the idea that they can benefit from anti-Labour/anti-Brown voting on the left.
“a majority of at least 15,000″
And that is what we call over-ramping expectations.
Well, MTF, you ought to have picked up something about the importance of punctuation…. Were you not telling us recently that you went to a public school? A bog standard one, presumably….
84, if the Tories don’t get 97% of the vote they can’t win an election.
I chuckled about it, anyway…
It’s not over-ramping expectations at all, if the non-Tory vote splits five ways.
I can imagine Osborne in charge and Cameron as PM , Mr tim. I can imagine him picking up the pieces of the mess left by Brown.
One thing I am sure you could never have imagined is Chancellor Brown so cocking up the income tax position that there is still a million people worse off than they were before he started messing.
83 - An excellent point: if the Lib Dems are overtaken by the Greens, it will be a disaster for them (and me, since I have bought them on the SPIN Norwich North market). If on the other hand they overtake Labour, they can reasonably look back on this as progress. I suppose it is just possible that the Greens come second and Labour come fourth, but that’s not my expectation.
In a curious way, Labour are rather free of pressure at this by-election. No one expects them to win and in the circumstances any kicking, no matter how bad, can be written off.
82.lol
I would think unless Cameron achieved 85% in Norwich then he’s finished as a leader…
The vote-leaving-Labour will split at least three ways:
(a) Stay at home
(b) Traditional floating voters will mostly move to the Conservatives (a change-the-government vote)
(c) Lefties who feel they can’t support Labour this time may possibly coalesce around a single candidate, but they might shatter.
Glasgow NE by-election:
- If the writ for the by-election is not moved today or tomorrow, the election will not be held before October and there has been speculation it might not take place until November.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2521022.0.Glasgow_byelection_candidate_prepared_to_give_away_salary.php
Lib Dem complains about Tory’s Norwich North bar chart!
http://www.libdemvoice.org/death-by-bar-chart-tories-plotting-to-kill-in-norwich-north-15375.html
88. Pat Ryan: if the non-Tory vote splits five ways.
82. Pat Ryan: If the Gibson-Labour vote splits five ways
Contrary to what you seem to believe, there exist political positions other that “Labour/non-Tory” and “Tory/non-Labour”.
I’m going to say something stupid here - I just realised I don’t know when the Norwich by-election is…
94. Richard Hare.
“Written by Helen Duffett on 15th June 2009 – 10:39 am”
94 - Lib Dems complaining about a bar chart on election literature is pretty much the funniest thing ever.
Lord Sugar of Clapton, according to Five Live.
98. David.
I think it’s pretty clear that post was tongue-in-cheek.
15k majority, ho ho ho.
Just to put it in context, from memory, Chris Grayling has the largest Tory majority with 16k, and that is in a seat that has been Tory since its creation in 1885 (even in 1997, the majority was 11k)!
And in C&N, where it was deemed that Labour got an absolute thrashing, Timpson only won by 8k.
ken@37: “So, kudos to Darling. He looked really worried - as any normal person would when he ordered the bailout.”
I think it’s just me, but I have a real soft-spot for worried-looking politicians. The other one I liked was Lionel Jospin. I think any politician with any sense of history should be alert to the possibility that however it may look at the time, they could be turning out to be making a big mistake. People who look really certain of what they’re doing have to be either con artists putting the whole persona on or dangerously delusional.
PS. JonathanD, thanks for posting those IMF numbers. The figures for Japan are lower than I’d expected, with the economy taking a massive dive.
I disagree with you once again, Antifrank. Please write something that I can agree with!
Norwich North is a seat where there are many credible challengers. I do not think that Labour will hold the seat, but I am not convinced yet that the Conservative candidate has a runaway victory in her hands.
A set-up like this will not be repeated all over the country: and I see no implications whatsoever for “straight fights” of whatever hue in the enormous remainder of the country.
85 Yes Pat, punctuation is not my forte,most especially when using a pc, but Brown is a loser. There is incontrovertible evidence for that!!
51 Calm down dear, it’s only a blog about political betting.
I do really love the archaic language in which Royal Proclamations are written - especially when they’re read out.
Would a UK televised debate match this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgQnTA2jE98
MTF - We agree - on both points!
100 - I don’t think the original LDV post was…
There’s ramping both ways on Norwich North. Labour claim they’re worried about fourth so they can spin a very poor second or even third as a great success. Conservatives claim a 3,000 majority would be great, meaning they think it’ll be 6,000 plus.
In truth, if the Tory majority is 6K plus (over Labour) that’s good for them. Below that they will be mildly disappointed but a gain’s a gain, some of it will be down to people like UKIP after the Euros, and it’s basically fine.
If Labour come third, it’s awful for them. But I think the line will just about hold at a poor second.
105 - OK, how about this? I believe that it is unlikely that the Tories will win Norwich North with a margin of 15,000.
107. It’d be much rougher gloves off stuff. There they have to at least pay lip service to party unity and not be seen as divisive. Plus US politics isn’t generally quite as rough as British politics in any case (correct me if I’m wrong).
Evening News Caption Competition: Why is Alex Salmond such a big golfer?
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/-Evening-News-Caption-Competition.5474404.jp
Regarding the categories I enumerated in my post 92, I expect there to be enough Labour to Stay-at-home and Labour to Tory switchers to ensure a Conservative win, although there may be more Tory to Stay-at-home switchers than we’d expect in a normal by-election (due to expenses) leading to a smaller majority than normal.
The big question for me is how the third category - Labour to non-Tory - splits. If they coalesce, Labour could come third. If they fragment, Labour will be second.
I’d be amazed if they conspire to finish fourth.
One for tim, just arrived in my inbox:
Australian Whine: 100 percent pure sour grapes.
My man in Central Office tells me that Cameron has changed his day for the Norwich visit to Thursday as he may need Wednesday to sack Andy Coulson.
119 - Inbox?
That was delivered by carrier pigeon first time round.
2 - MD - I am already a fan of yours for your innovative use of rather large haddock and earth to space artillery, but THAT post is brilliant
120 tim - Is that the same man who tipped Michael Gove as Shadow Chancellor?
An astonishing statistical fact.
Labour spent £540 million on advertising and marketing in the 12 months to March 2009.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/20/uk-government-advertising-marketing
I think, LS, that that is more or less what I was saying.
Though I do think Labour will do extremely badly in Norwich North - so the question turns on the polarisation around another candidate.
If there is no polarisation, a large Tory majority would not mean very much, since the non-Tory vote would be split. But that would not necesarily be the case elesewhere.
120 - What does your man think that Andy Coulson might need to be sacked for? At present, the only items that you’ve prayed in aid of the suggestion that he’s in any danger at all are the tenses of George Osborne.
“My man in Central Office”
Work placement scheme for ex-asylum inmates? Is that where you met?
120 - Tim, do you really think that sacking AC is something that requires DC to be in London *all day*?
Does anyone seriously think that more than 100 voters in Norwich North give a damn about this issue (and similarly, I very much doubt any more care about Smeargate)?
124 - The government is now the biggest spender on advertising in the country. More than Proctor and Gamble, more than Unilever, more than Coke, more than McDonald’s…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5066238/Government-advertisements-run-10000-times-a-day.html
“What does your man think that…”
Delete ‘man’ and replace with ‘imaginary friend’.
re `120. Dream on Tim.
Betfair - Next General Election - Party Seats Line
(approx +/- change from UK GE 2005)
Con 348.5 - 353.5 (+153 seats)
Lab 207 - 210 (-148 seats)
LD 49 - 53.5 (-11 seats)
SNP 15 - 18 (+11 seats)
PC 4.5 - 5.5 (+2 seats)
DUP 5.5 - 8.5 (-2 seats)
87 I don’t think the Lib Dem result in Norwich North, where they have next to no base or organisation, will tell us anything about their prospects in their target seats against Labour.
It’s funny how the phone tapping story has had zero impact on the polls - as I predicted.
And when is the Guardian going to back up its “thousands” allegations?
They had a goodish story which has totally lost it potency because they could not resist bigging it up. Pathetic.
81, weathercock “About time the Lords were abolished and became an elected Senate, or something similar.”
Just had a brainwave - replace House of Lords with PB.com!
That way still retain traditional Tory bias but increase vigor of debate. And we’d all get salaries & per diem. Plus expenses!
135, excellent!
I’d like to be Lord Horse of Hiroshima.
124 “Labour spent £540 million on advertising and marketing in the 12 months to March 2009.”
Spent bigging up the Govt. and its supposed achievements.
An amount which has added to the public’s appreciation of this Govt. by some -4% to -5% in the polls. On that basis, the unions would be wise to think that throwing another mere £10m in the GE kitty is going to be p1ssing it up a wall…
124 “Labour spent £540 million on advertising and marketing in the 12 months to March 2009.”
Spent bigging up the Govt. and its supposed achievements.
An amount which has added to the public’s appreciation of this Govt. by some -4% to -5% in the polls. On that basis, the unions would be wise to think that throwing another mere £10m in the GE kitty is going to be p1ssing it up a wall…
135. SSI.
Content!
133. That sounds like excuses being prepared already….
135 You just know that would tempt back SeanT!
Today Show just featured interview from Haley, Idaho (just down the road from Sun Valley) of lady who owns coffee shop where the US soldier now held as prisoner by the Taleban used to work.
She said he was a good kid, and that the local community was very concerned for him and his family. There is also concern and sympathy across the Pacific Northwest and the US.
However, so far I see little sign that this particular situation or the overall situation in Afghanistan is erroding the American public’s support for the war there.
It may happen, but not yet and not soon.
133 Park Town Boy
Why not? The LibDems got a respectable 16% in 2005, against the Tories 33%, and have councillors in the area. And they’ve got enough of an organisation to be able to deliver zillions of leaflets, as Mark Senior keeps reminding us.
I would have thought that this is a good test ground for the theory that the LibDems can pick up Labour protest votes in Labour-held seats. OK, not enough to win against a strongish Tory support level in 2005, but they need to be able to do well in seats like this.
If, OTOH, those protest votes go to the Greens, that will be very bad news for the LibDem chances at the GE.
Betfair - Norwich North by-election
Conservative 1.05
Labour 28
Green 80
Liberal Democrat 90
Any Other 330
Just think: this is what Gordon Brown proposed for MPs in his infamous Youtube video
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6719130.ece
143. Quite. I do get the impression there is considerable discomfort in the Lib Dem camp about this contest…
135, meself - already have my title picked out:
Lord Pointyhead of The Space Needle
143 - “If, OTOH, those protest votes go to the Greens, that will be very bad news for the LibDem chances at the GE”
Yes and no. A big Green vote will be somewhat worrying for the Lib Dems, but Norwich is one of a handful of places in the UK where the Greens have done well electorally for a number of years. So the impact if it happens might well be limited in scope. I wouldn’t expect it to presage large Green votes in seats where they have no real presence to speak of, which is still 95%+ of the country - Greens just won’t be on the radar there.
Ladbrokes - Nowrich North: Labour finishing position
1st 12/1
2nd 4/6
3rd 7/4
4th or worse 8/1
America’s most prominent amateur basketball player plays a bit of “hide the ball”:
“The administration’s annual midsummer budget update is sure to show higher deficits and unemployment and slower growth than projected in President Barack Obama’s budget in February and update in May, and that could complicate his efforts to get his signature health care and global-warming proposals through Congress. The release of the update - usually scheduled for mid-July - has been put off until the middle of next month, giving rise to speculation the White House is delaying the bad news at least until Congress leaves town on its August 7 summer recess.”
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090720/D99I4A0G0.html
The administration’s decision to hide bad economic data until after their stated early August deadline for Congress to act on healthcare reform is likely also motivated by increasing public skepticism about Obama’s efforts on healthcare:
“A Washington Post-ABC News survey released Monday shows approval of Obama’s handling of health-care reform slipping below 50% for the first time. The poll also found support eroding on how Obama is dealing with other issues that are important to Americans right now - the economy, unemployment and the swelling budget deficit.”
The White House is now racing against time; they are hoping to push through Obama’s signature initiatives before public support collapses so badly that he won’t be able to cobble together the votes in Congress.
146 Rightly so; if they can’t deliver Labour protest votes in NN, then how can they in the GE? And so their (well-founded) fear is that the next election becomes a poarised straight fight betwen kicking out Brown and keeping out Cameron. Labour and the Tories, toe to toe. On a higher turnout, which I still contend will hurt the LibDems more than both the bigger parties.
Of course my LAST brainwave was for yet another version of a classic flick, but with a twist:
“Twelve Angry Muppets”
Plot synopsis: Miss Piggy is on trial for murder. Kermit (not yet acquainted with the porcine diva) is jury foreman, striving for the truth; Gonzo urges quick conviction so he can get back to his fungus collection; Big Bird is court balliff; Judge Judy plays herself.
Strangely have yet to hear back from a single Hollywood studio! So am thinking of letting Bollywood have a crack at it . . .
On Norwich North, in a pretty poor third place behind the Tories in a by-election when everyone’s looking to give the government a kicking and the green’s drawing votes off.
If you offered me decent 3rd place with some sort of vote increase I’d bite your hand off for it. All above that is wishful thinking imho.
148 SNP - I think the worry for the LibDems is not so much that the Greens will do well, as that the LibDems will not be seen as the natural place for disgruntled ex-Labour voters. At the GE, that could mean that those ex-Labour voters are dispersed, some staying at home, some voting Green or for other minority parties, but not being reaped by the LibDems.
I hope I’m wrong - I’ve bet on the LibDems coming second in NN. But I do have doubts that this bet is going to be a winner.
143. - “If, OTOH, those protest votes go to the Greens, that will be very bad news for the LibDem chances at the GE.”
Spot on Richard.
By the way, here is how the Lib Dems have performed in the by-elections in this parliament (reverse chronological order):
Glenrothes - 4th place 2.6% (-10.1)
Glasgow East - 4th place 3.5% (-8.3)
Haltemprice and Howden - no show
Henley - 2nd place 27.8% (+1.8)
Crewe and Nantwich - 3rd place 14.6% (-4.0)
Sedgefield - 2nd place 19.9% (+8.0)
Ealing Southall - 2nd place 27.7% (+3.3)
Bromley and Chislehurst - 2nd place 37.8% (+17.5)
Blaenau Gwent - 4th place 5.4% (+1.1)
Dunfermline and West Fife - LD gain 35.8% (+15.6)
Livingston - 3rd place 14.8% (-0.6)
Cheadle - LD hold 52.2% (+3.3)
Pretty uninspiring stuff all in all.
150, S&S - and Senate Republicans are working hard on their contribution to resolving America’s health care crisis:
Sen. Jim DeMent (R-SC): “If we’re able to stop Obama on this, it will be his Waterloo. It will break him.”
“Twelve Angry Muppets”
I like it — although director Peter Jackson already pushed muppet parodies as far as they can possibly go, with his infamous muppet-style ultraviolence movie, ‘Meet the Feebles’.
156- It’s reminiscent of the Dems’ effort to derail social security reform during the Bush administration, in more ways than one!
149 “Ladbrokes - Nowrich North”
One can but hope…somehow I think Ladbrokes will not be that generous!
155. And importantly the trend isn’t helpful, is it?
Sir Norfolk - I think you miss an important point re. the Greens and Lib Dems. There are a lot of Tory-Lib Dem fights where even 1000-2000 votes lost to the Greens could see the Lib Dems losing the seat, especially in the West country where they often fish in the same pool for votes.
Even a small amount of traction for the Greens is potentially bad news for the Lib Dems at a national level.
135 great idea, but choosing titles for us all could fill a thread on its own!!
A serious point to reflect upon, just how far David Cameron has taken the Tory party in 3 years.
1979-2008 No Tory gains in by-elections from Labour
2008 Crew and Nantwich, Tories overturn 7000 Labour majority creating a larger one
2009 Norwich North we are talking about whether the Tory majority will be greater than 3000.
Little over 12 months ago every Tory on PB would ahve settled for a majority of 1 in either seat.
David Cameron interview to a local Norwich radio station
http://futureradio.co.uk/podcast/2009/july/davidcameronspeakswithtimmacwilliam
Paddy Power - Glasgow NE by-election
Labour 4/7
SNP 6/5
Conservatives 80/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
[143] - I would have thought that this is a good test ground for the theory that the LibDems can pick up Labour protest votes in Labour-held seats. OK, not enough to win against a strongish Tory support level in 2005, but they need to be able to do well in seats like this.
Indeed, they need to be picking up second places where they are currently third - how many seats are the Lib Dems currently second in?
Then when the electorate wants to kick the Tories out who will they turn to..?
Afternoon all. I have just had an interview which if successful would probably lead to my retirement from being an open and regular poster on the site.
On topic, I can’t see this line going down well with the PM. But, expenses aside, I think Alistair Dalring has behaved with great dignity in an impossible situation.
From Chateau Fawkes,
UPDATE : Interesting that in the Radio 5 interview, Damian refers to the emails to Derek about off colour comments on this blog. When Guido made a Freedom of Information request for those very emails they came back with very little – certainly not the relevant emails. Guido might have to return to this issue…
I hope McPoison hasn’t just prodded another hornet’s nest!
159. MM.
Yeah, I spotted the typo and decided to leave it in for the amusement value
Lord Sugar says he is “politically neutral”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8159429.stm
Now that really is a silly thing to say. Nearly as good as not knowing if he was going to be a “Working Peer” or not!
120 ‘My man in Central Office’
tim, is that the same chap who sold you the private schools and the farm?
151. MM: And so their (well-founded) fear is that the next election becomes a poarised straight fight betwen kicking out Brown and keeping out Cameron.
I thought about this when reading through yesterday’s TV debate discussion.
Wouldn’t it be humiliating for Clegg if there were to be a three-way debate and Brown and Cameron simply ignored him (as is, I would guess, quite likely)?
168 - isn’t he a Labour peer?
160 - I see that point entirely but simply very much doubt the Greens will get 1,000 to 2,000 votes in many seats regardless of the result in Norwich.
They have the organisation to deliver a campaign in Norwich, but don’t in 95% of seats. I would admit it will worry the Lib Dems in places like Oxford East and neighbouring Norwich South should the Greens do well.
I think you miss the point that a good Green performance means one fairly good headline for them (but overshadowed by the expected Tory gain). That won’t deliver the double the usual vote (or anything like it) in basically derelict seats up and down the country. It won’t even be noticed by the large majority of voters.
‘Lord Sugar says he is “politically neutral”’
That sounds suspiciously like the posters here who begin by saying, “I’m no Labour voter, but…” before cut-and-pasting 100% astroturf.
168 - If Sugar is as he says “politically neutral”, you have to ask what he has donated over £1 million to the Labour Party for? He either supports Labour (nothing wrong with supporting a political party), or there is another reason for his donations. I mean it was complete coincidence he gave them £200,000 on day his firm won Government endorsement in 2002.
148 Sir NP, IF the Greens take votes effectively from the LibDem pool on Thursday, what does it say for LibDem chances in seats like Oxford, Watford, Edinburgh south, Aberdeen South, seats where they are second but potentially have a resurgent Tory party breathing down their necks?
Could it be that in these seats we see the LibDem vote increase and them still lose out to their Tory opponents? Happened to the Tories often enough over the past 30 years.
174 - The share price of “Learning Technology” (a company he owned 73% in) only increased by 60 per cent in the month after accreditation.
173, I love those: ‘I’m certainly no Labour voter, but it’s clear to me that what we need in these difficult times is a serious man with experience and not a novice.’ They’re always so brilliantly obvious to spot.
Back to Sugar, I am 99% sure that in order for him to be made a Peer at this point it has to be a political one. Cross-benchers are made, as I understand it, on two key dates every year…
175 - “IF the Greens take votes effectively from the LibDem pool on Thursday, what does it say for LibDem chances in seats like Oxford, Watford, Edinburgh south, Aberdeen South”
Oh, can I answer this one? Nothing!!! Different circumstances, different places. It’s like asking whether the Tories are in trouble due to UKIP’s good performance in the Euros - ie it’s more a product of wishful thinking than rational analysis.
172. Take your point about headlines, but I am arguing a slightly different point, re. that a good Green performance might be a symptom (rather than a catalyst) of a drift of leftish protest votes to that party.
The Lib Dems have assembled quite varied coalitions of voters to win and challenge for seats in some parts of the country, e.g. the West country as mentioned earlier. If these coalitions start to splinter they are in big trouble, especially in the face of a stronger Tory vote.
Rhetorically, “I’m no Labour voter, but…” = “I’m no racist, but…”
178 - I don’t agree with you there (though there certainly is some wishful thinking on both sides of this argument). For good or ill, the Lib Dems have long been the beneficiaries of the dustbin vote - “a plague on all your houses” was synonymous with the Lib Dems for a long while. I have voted Lib Dem on more than one occasion, not out of particular sympathy with their manifesto but more to register a protest against the two main parties.
But the Lib Dems are losing that vote now. In one sense, it’s a sign of their political maturity that they are seen as a main party. But a protest voter now might vote for the Greens or UKIP instead. At the EU elections, I voted for the Greens for roughly the same reason that I have voted for the Lib Dems before, but with an added element of environmental virtuousness.
From the Lib Dem viewpoint, a vote is a vote is a vote. To see the dustbin vote slipping to other minority parties must be a major cause for concern.
178 Neil very many LibDem PBers clearly stated that they expected UKIP to harm the Tory vote everywhere in the country. The 4 areas I mentioned are just the type where there is a large number of plastic shoe wearing lettuce munchers.
Burnham being very sensible about swine flu in the House.
But the media narrative is so against Labour that the headlines are about confusing messages…
Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk has finally made up his mind; he will run for Senate after all, in a bid to reclaim Obama’s former seat for the GOP:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/rep.-kirk-says-he-will-run-for-senate-2009-07-20.html
182. There must be an excellent case for disfranchising anyone tasteless enough to wear plastic shoes.
182 - You’re not going to be courting the plastic shoe wearing lettuce munching vote yourself then? Will there even be a Green candidate in Aberdeen South? Wont Green-inclined voters continue to split vote in Oxford? As a Green supporter I’d love to see a surge to us from Lib Dems or anyone else it just isnt happening on a general level. Where Greens are organised and targetted they are doing well but outside that (the vast majority of the country) there is no particular trend to them.
178 - The only area in which the greens could potentially stop us from winning the seats you have mentioned is Oxford and for all the votes we lose to the greens, a few hundred max, we will gain far more from Labour.
Watford is a nailed on win but the two Scottish seats must depend on whether or not we can squeeze the Tory vote or they squeeze our vote. They have both been Tory in the past. I think we will win one but not both.
182 - Oxford West is Evan Harris and I seem to recall the Tories have put up some evangelical christian against him.
Lets hope the Oxford science people weigh in to support Harris
179 runnymede - Yes, exactly.
Or, to put the same point another way, why aren’t the Libdems doing better? With a very unpopular Labour government, with Vince Cable as a plausible financial spokesman often in the media, with the expenses scandal working relatively to their advantage, with residual if irrational anti-Tory sentiment still persisting, and with Cameron (it is said) not having ’sealed the deal’, they should be grabbing those ex-Labour votes easily.
Instead, they seem to be flat-lining, with ex-Labour votes dissipating or going straight to the Tories (or SNP in Scotland). Or at least that is how it appears - we’ll see on Friday whether it is right.
188 Oxford East is currently nominally ours but is Andrew Smiths seat for Labour. That is the one being discussed.
There’s a big Lib Dem policy announcement today.
Is it Norman Bakers new Moon Landing evidence?
183 - I do wonder if some of the confusion is just GPs and the public being silly. Anyone with half a brain seems to know that if you think you have it, you call your GP. But where I think a lot of the confusion arises is what to do when the GP is shut. A friend of mine in Kent wanted to get some Tamiflu for his sister; he called the GP at 2am - it was shut, but gave him the number of the local 24-hour on call team. He got through to them, got her diagnosed, and he drove about half an hour to get the drug. Job done.
Contrast that with another friend in Essex. His GP gave no such instructions about what to do when closed, and his mother decided to take his ill sister to the hospital - despite my friend’s protests. She gets there, and is told to leave and see her GP in the morning.
I’m not even saying it’s a county-specific thing; I just think that when people know what to do, and are told clearly what to do, there really aren’t so many problems.
191 Plastic shoes for all!
–> LibDems accused of flip-flopping….
S&S, have been waiting for you to resurface from you “hiking trip” on the “Appalachian Trail”!
Because knew you’d be one pber interested in last weeks SurveyUSA poll of this year’s race for King County (county seat Seattle) Executive.
Your candidate is former TV news anchor Susan Hutchinson, who is running against two Democratic KC Councilmembers and two Democratic state legislators, plus a few also-rans:
Susan Hutchinson 39%
Dow Constantine 12%
Larry Phillips 8%
Fred Jarrett 7%
Ross Hunter 6%
others 5%
undecided 23%
Though the race is official nonpartisan, there is a heavy partisan component. Also note that the top two vote getters in the August 19 primary will advance to the general election.
Hutchinson had been keeping herself scarce and her light under a bushel . . . until last week. Because she’s vulnerable to being attacked as a religious conservative.
However, her launch last week was VERY effective. For example, all four Democrats fell over themselves coming out against a proposed tax levy to fund health and social services that are being wacked due to King County’s horrific budget deficit. (WA State has no income tax, so state and local revenues are dependent on sales, property and business taxes, and the intake has tanked due to the recession.)
Hutchinson the (covert) Republican was the ONLY candidate to support putting the levy on the ballot, on grounds of her personal concern and “let the voters decide”.
Only the officially certified GOP wingnuts will holler about this; those merely under doctors orders or self medication will give her a pass. Because they know she’s working a savvy strategy that might just lead her to a GOP victory in November in a county dominated by Democratic voters.
Note that while King Co (actually WA State) Republicans are plumping, the Democrats are dividing their vote between four credible candidates. Unfortunately, the one with the best shot of beating Hutchinson, State Sen. Fred Jarret (D-Mercer Island) is not a likely primary winner, because the other legislator in the race, State Rep. Ross Hunter (D-Medina, which is where Bill Gates lays his weary head most nights) is splitting the suburban Democratic vote.
So the most likely person to be on the Novmember ballot with Hutchinson is going to be one of two KC Councilmembers from Seattle, Larry Phillips from the North Seattle or Dow Constantine from West Seattle. Larry is the old dog, while Dow is the young pup. Both are good men in with their own strengths. BUT they share the weakness of being long-time councilmembers. Thus part of a somewhat (though not totally) suspect current county government establishment, in a year when incumbency may be less of a virtue than pre-recession.
192 - I should have added, both are fine now.
I hope the indicators in the UK are similar to those in the USA
July 20 (Bloomberg) — The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, reinforcing signs the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades.
The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.7 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 1.3 percent gain in May, the New York- based research group said today. It is the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004.
179 - The seats that matter for the Lib Dems at the next election are about twenty they hold from the Tories with a majority under about 12%, and about twenty Labour hold from them with a majority under about 15%. Those forty seats will make or break Election 2010 for the Lib Dems.
I don’t see Norwich North - whether it’s poor for the Lib Dems or sees a surprisingly good showing, perhaps second - having a large bearing on those key seats.
The “dustbin theory”, which I think is overplayed anyway, is most relevant in seats where the Lib Dems get 10-20% without actually doing anything or really making their case. In those key forty seats, people rarely see the Lib Dems as a dustbin for essentially deliberately wasted votes - they are a leading contender, making their voice heard very loudly.
193- Thanks for the in-depth local analysis, SSI. Is King County suburban enough to encompass any substantial number of traditional GOP voters? What would you say is the Democratic/Republican partisan divide in King County, generally speaking (e.g., 80%/20%)?
Funny things often happen in elections for executive positions, where much more importance is placed on the individual, as opposed to the party, than is typically the case in other American elections. Still King County is VERY Democratic. Do you think Hutchinson will be derailed after the Dems have chosen their candidate and they can train all their fire on Hutchinson?
196 - nope, UK PLC still in the toilet:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/5870742/Neil-Woodford-UK-economic-green-shoots-look-illusory.html
196. An example of the kind of seat I am talking about would be Somerton and Frome, where the Lib Dem majority is tiny, and no Green stood at all last time. Yet the Greens got around 4% in the recent locals.
In West Dorset, Greens stood for the first time in 2005 and with a minimal campaign got almost 1000 votes. Some of these came from Labour, some from non-voters but I am aware that the local Lib Dems were very annoyed by the intervention of this candidate…
On topic
Whoever bailed out the banks it’s hardly something to be proud of. It is at the end of the day an admission of the biggest economic failure in the last 70 years.
Hardly a great eulogy: “Gordon Brown, thanks to his actions, he might have presided over a slightly less appalling disaster (largely of his own making) than otherwise”
Yeah - 3 cheers for Gordo…
10 years of growth funded by borrowing from the future and characterised by eye-watering debt and no contingency planning, then a catastrophic bust. Marvellous. well done.
199 - “but I am aware that the local Lib Dems were very annoyed by the intervention of this candidate…”
I just love it when Lib Dems get annoyed by the democratic process (see past Oxford East discussions)!
184, S&S - that’s good news for your team. And also IL and the US if he actually gets elected next year.
Sounds like Mark Kirk had to get Mitch McConnell and rest of Senate GOP leadership to bang some heads among the IL House Republican contingent and also back in the Prairie State. Will be interesting if Congressman Kirk draws a credible challenger in the GOP primary. But reckon he’s going to be nominated.
Will also be interesting to see if Dems can pick up his suburban Chicago congressional seat. No doubt that President Obama and esp. Rahm Emanuel will take person interest in that as well as the Senate race.
201. ‘I am the real green candidate’ was a remark made by one of their number.
Foolishly, I decided not to place a bet that Labour would get under 20% of the vote in the Euros.
I simply thought that was overestimating how unpopular Labour was.
What kind of odds are there on the vote shares for Norwich North, if any?
199 - I can see why Lib Dems are mildly annoyed by Green candidates as Tories are about Greens and Labour are about Socialist Labour variants. It’s slightly overplayed - many of these parties’ supporters wouldn’t otherwise vote or would vote for another party. But it may matter in an ultra-marginal.
I just don’t see Norwich having any bearing on it. At best it gives the Greens a minor headline well below the main headline result, and the bookies suggest they won’t get that.
205 - Correction; “as Tories are about UKIP”.
199 - Somerton and Frome is a Con gain.
Its half of the Comedy Double Bill.
204 - There are vote share bets from Ladbrokes on the Tories only I think: 5/6 above 41% and 5/6 below that. On Labour, best you can get is 4/6 on second, 7/4 on third, 8/1 on fourth (or lower) - don’t think they’re doing bets on share.
Everybody check Rees-Mogg on your daily Smearbot Bingo cards…
200, S&S - Last November, King County gave Obama 70% of its vote, and Gov. Gregoire got 63% in King Co, up from 60% four years before.
King County is very large in terms of both geography and population. It accounts for about 1/3 of the statewide vote. And about 2/3 of the King Co vote is outside the City of Seattle.
So there is indeed a substantial suburban GOP vote, though the burbs have been trending Democratic for some time, for two reasons: 1) affluent burbs are becoming alienated from national GOP, similar to similar turf in suburban Philadelphia and Chicago; and 2) lower-middle class and middle class families are being increasingly priced out of Seattle, so they are moving to the more affordable suburbs, this includes lots of Blacks and Asians plus growing numbers of Hispanics (that latter not as big a deal in Western WA as across the Cascade Mountains in Eastern WA.)
BTW, S&S, what do you think of Tom Watson’s caddie?
196. Sir Norfolk Passmore: The seats that matter for the Lib Dems at the next election are about twenty they hold from the Tories with a majority under about 12%, and about twenty Labour hold from them with a majority under about 15%. Those forty seats will make or break Election 2010 for the Lib Dems.
True, but I’m looking an election ahead. The LDs need a lot of second places this time to be able to make a breakthrough next time.
Losing 20 seats net in 2010 won’t be a disaster if they improve their number of second places by 50+.
I would never vote LibDem as a protest vote, but I was happy to vote Green in the Euro’s and in last years London Assembly elections (list section) and 1st choice for mayor (with Ken second).
Am I typical of Labour members/supporters? Perhaps or perhaps not, but there must be a tranche in Norwich who will vote Green to give Gordon a kicking rather than LibDem.
188 Let’s hope everyone else doesn’t.
209
Yup, got it. One more meeded to shout “Bingo”. Will it be “Dave’s mates” or “cheats” that’s the winner?
205. Yes but as I mentioned before my contention was that a strong Green performance would be a symptom of a splintering Lib Dem vote, not its cause. Though there could be a positive impact via the Greens actually standing additional candidates…
202- One silver lining shaping up for the Dems in 2010, in what should otherwise generally be a good GOP year, is the fact that so many of the GOP’s left-most House seats will be open seats. It looks like not only Kirk will be leaving the House, but also Mike Castle of Delaware, Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania, and of course John McHugh of upstate New York (who will soon be joining the Obama administration). While the Dems will likely lose quite a few House seats next year, they may well be able to claw back a few by way of these retirements.
211. I can see the spin now - we’ve improved our number of second places by 50 (although in half of them we were in first place last time!).
150 - Fox News has Michael Brown, former DNC finance chair, defending the Obamanation’s health care plan, and refuting the Washington Post / ABC poll figures by saying that ‘people want health care reform’ and that the only real opponents are insurance industry pressure groups.
No wonder they want to ram it through quickly
200, S&S - will Susan Hutchinson be derailed by the Democrat who survives the primary?
Personally my hunch is yes. The Dems are strong and she’s yet to truly prove she can take the heat. Also think the national picture will be a plus for us (that is Dems) out here.
BUT an associate of mine, much older and FAR wiser and more experienced (with plenty of satisfied clients in high place) in Evergreen State politics thinks that Hutchinson is going to win unless she shoots herself in the foot or other inconvenient location.
213. Evan Davis strikes me as being just as sanctimonious as the worst evangelical Christians. Pity the poor voters in that part of the world.
201 - “I just love it when Lib Dems get annoyed by the democratic process”
In a town council by-election here recently, the Lib Dems complained in an election leaflet about us Tories costing the local taxpayer some astronomical made up figure by daring to stand a candidate against the guy they wanted to co-opt onto the council.
Those inconsiderate voter types further annoyed them by voting in our guy.
210- Caddie by day, political consultant by night (or at least I suppose so; it would be considerably tougher to caddie by night and politically consult by day…). Sounds wonderful!
O/T CoffeeHouse re-publishes the Spectator report on the Moon Landing forty years ago (where did those years go? all the things I meant to do back in 1969….). One sentence made me smile - it was true of the British then, still in part imperialist, but wonder if there is any truth in it now:
‘You know, if you had been the ones to get there first, your astronaut would have planted the Union Jack and said: “I name this moon Elizabeth.” ’
214 - Ali G interview with the other half of the act.
Ali G: “So what if you got busy with my sister? You wouldn’t like it ‘cos she ain’t the cleanest girl out there! Um, well it can be arranged. She’d be keen!”
Rees-Mogg: “You speculating on my having a relationship with somebody I’ve never met and that leading to a child being born and then as to what class it might be is so..uh..far fetched..um..as to be ridiculous. I have no idea what..”
Ali G: “What you think you is too good for my sister?”
Rees-Mogg: “Certainly not. No I wouldn’t dream…”
Ali G: “You is. No, you is though. She’s is rank. She’s nothing. Believe me, even my mum cuss her, tell her she’s a slag!”
220. Oops Evan Harris I meant…interesting slip…
220. Voters are stuck between a cock and the master race ?
Apparently we are getting an Ipsos Mori and a Populus Poll imminently.
I have decided to be extra generous and provide you all with one of my brilliat polling prediction for each, as follows:
IpsosMori C43, L26, LD21
Populus C42, L25, LD20
As ever they will no doub’t be deadly accurate as I have “fantastic political emotional intelligence”
224 I won’t reproduce the details on a family site such as this, but the Ali G interview with Elton John (which ended with Elton John walking out) was very entertaining.
211 - I’m not sure the absolute number of second places matters that much.
Lib Dems can afford to lose the far distant second places from Labour (of the 60/20/15 variety) back to the Tories that they gained in 2005. They won’t lose many second places where they are second to the Tories to Labour - but if they drop from contenders to distant also-rans in the Totneses and Eastbournes of this world, that’s bad news for them.
Essentially, they want to maximise the number of seats where they are within 10%, which is a rather different thing to second places.
222, S&S - but how good is he at his night job? Or day one for that matter, if you’re qualified to judge?
223, Ted - but why not “I name this moon Keith”!
I love this site, we are told week by week, year by year, day by day, minute by minute how the Lib Dem will fall, is falling, will splinter, will disintergrate, how they have no chance here and no chance there, how their tactics are so abhorrent that no reasonable sane person could vote for them etc etc etc.
But it never happens and we all know it will not.
Yet they carry on, suppose it keeps their morale up or something, but surely there is something more varied and interesting for them to get involved in, particularly when there could well be a Con/Lib Dem government after the next election!!!.
Or is that the anxiety?
228. Is that confirmed (the polls, not the accuracy of Wayne’s presictions)?
233.
There have been 2 or 3 postings on here today that we are getting polls.
I do hope you are not questioning my polling expertise. I would be VERY VERY ANGRY !!