Will this PB post bring a smile back to Gordon’s face?
July 8th, 2009
Has he the power to defer the election until 2013?
While I was researching the deadline for nominations for the Norwich by-election (4pm today), I found a fascinating research paper from the House of Commons - as reliable a source as could be wished for.
The assumption has always been that once parliament expires, writs will be issued for the general election, which according to the timetable currently in force would put the date of the election on Thursday June 3 (or possibly Friday June 4 if the writs were issued the day after expiry - though that would break with the tradition of elections being on a Thursday).
However, parliament has not expired in modern times; a dissolution has always been the mechanism through which a general election has been called. That, however, does not mean that a dissolution has to take place.
The only statutory requirement to move writs for a general election is under the Meeting of Parliament Act 1694, which allows no less than three years between the dissolution and the writs being issued. In other words, technically, the election doesn’t have to be held until June 2013.
For practical purposes, there’s no way a government could get away with a delay of that length. For one thing, there are various laws which lapse if they are not approved annually, including the provision for income tax - a key part of the government’s defence against Frank Field’s amendment to the Finance Act yesterday. For another, that sort of delay would be contrary to a constitutional convention of over three centuries’ practice, backed up by dozens of examples.
Even so, if three years is completely out of the question, a few weeks or - stretching it - months might not be.
Think back to 2001. Tony Blair had a general election planned for May that year but the Foot and Mouth outbreak meant that it had to be delayed as much of the countryside was shut down and the government needed to get to grips with the crisis. That was in the fourth year of a parliament but had it occurred a year later, rather than passing emergency legislation, the government could simply have waited before asking the Queen to set the election in motion.
I do not expect an election in June or later next year - it will very probably be May 6. Avoiding the public for partisan reasons would go down appalling badly and might not even be tolerated by the palace. However, it is worth bearing in mind that should the circumstances justify it, the legal framework is already in place.
David Herdson
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A great bit of research David.
Not if he wants to live to 2013.
Surely the words “swine” and “flu” are not far away from any conspiracy of this nature…
Pardon me for pointing out the obvious, but we have all always very well known about this three-year rule which you are pretending to have only just discovered. It is also perfectly obvious that if the PM tried to use it to delay a general election, even by a week or two, would be summarily told by the Queen to Fuff Ock unless there was a genuine very dire national emergency.
FPT
I understand STV alright, I just don’t think that its the way for our democracy to go. It would finally disconnect politics and send our turnout down into the 50’s. What’s the point of being an activist in a constituency that isn’t local,…
All constituencies are local. STV constituencies are more local than in most other electoral systems.
…or voting for a constant rainbow coalition…
That’s not what STV gives. STV provides single-party governments, or coalitions of two or more parties, according to what the voters have mandated. Rainbow coalitions in Ireland or Australia are few and far between.
… that will make compromising deals that don’t reflect their manifesto’s.
Because the compromise deals, albeit drifting away from manifersto details, will be closer to what the voters want.
It really will stop our politicians being accountable in the way they are now.
Indeed! It will very greatly enhance it. MPs will be so mindbogglingly accountable that they will be afraid of losing their seats to other candidates of the same party, and not just other parties. Thus they will be incentivised to be better MPs instead of lazy ones.
Swine flu will be done and dusted by spring, in plenty of time for the public to give Labour its lamping.
If the Governor General can dissolve Parliament against the PM’s will (in Australia), I highly doubt her Majesty would not simply use her own powers were Brown to not call an election after Parliament expired.
This has been discussed at least once before on PB.
If Brown didn’t ask the Queen to move the writs pronto, she’d surely do it anyway.
5. JohnLoony:
STV constituencies are more local than in most other electoral systems.
But less local than the current system.
STV provides single-party governments, or coalitions of two or more parties, according to what the voters have mandated.
A lack of mandate for a single-party government is not a mandate for a coalition.
Because the compromise deals, albeit drifting away from manifersto details, will be closer to what the voters want.
[citation needed]
they will be afraid of losing their seats to other candidates of the same party, and not just other parties.
Assuming parties put up extra candidates. The example of the NI Euro constituency bodes ill.
9. “A lack of mandate for a single-party government is not a mandate for a coalition.”
The unspoken assumption there seems to be that a lack of mandate for a single-party government (let’s say a party that got a mere 36% of the popular vote) is not a mandate for a coalition, therefore it is in fact a mandate for…a single-party government after all. Talk about logical gymnastics.
Having argued this point with you before, it seems to me there’s a kind of willful thought-distortion going on here. In a PR system, the electorate are not giving a mandate to a specific coalition. What they are doing is giving a mandate to a legislature as a whole, from which the coalition derives it’s mandate to rule. And as that legislature much more accurately reflects the popular will than it would under FPTP, it’s a much more meaningful mandate.
“Assuming parties put up extra candidates. The example of the NI Euro constituency bodes ill.”
Other elections in both Irish jurisdictions are a much better guide to what would actually happen. The NI Euro vote is always a bit of an oddity.
7. “If the Governor General can dissolve Parliament against the PM’s will (in Australia), I highly doubt her Majesty would not simply use her own powers were Brown to not call an election after Parliament expired.”
Ah, but look at the way the Canadian Governor-General allowed Stephen Harper to save his own skin last December using a bit of unprecedented constitutional jiggery-pokery (ie. a completely unnecessary prorogation of parliament). I don’t think it’s at all likely Gordon Brown would go down that road (he would be crucified for it), but if he did I don’t think we can necessarily rely on the Queen to stand in his way.
10. Red Meteor: The unspoken assumption there seems to be that a lack of mandate for a single-party government (let’s say a party that got a mere 36% of the popular vote) is not a mandate for a coalition, therefore it is in fact a mandate for…a single-party government after all.
No, it’s no mandate at all.
It’s simply illogical to say “35% support A, 20% support B, therefore 55% support (A+B)”.
In a PR system, the electorate are not giving a mandate to a specific coalition. What they are doing is giving a mandate to a legislature as a whole, from which the coalition derives it’s mandate to rule. And as that legislature much more accurately reflects the popular will than it would under FPTP, it’s a much more meaningful mandate.
Unless the coalition that forms is despised by a majority of the voters, which case cannot be excluded.
If it were possible, I’d like coalitions (under whatever electoral system) to be subject to a confirmatory referendum. Totally impractical, of course.
Other elections in both Irish jurisdictions are a much better guide to what would actually happen.
Possibly, but then again possibly not. You have no evidence to be able to confidently state that it would.
Anything which produces pictures similar to the one heading this thread is clearly designed to breach the peace (my grandchildren are still screaming) and should be banned.
My national/political forefathers (and foremothers such as Abigail Adams) were correct.
‘Tis instructive how quickly Tories revert to Divine Right, even in the 21st century.
Note that any attempt to extend the life of parliament would entail the support of the majority of the House of Commons and (I think) the House of Lords. Of course this could be manufactured, contrived, ignored. BUT if that was the case, then the British Constitution would clearly be in extremis.
Perhaps proof of this is the way that the life of the Dec. 1910 parliament was extended until 1919, and that of the 1935 parliament until 1945. This was done via cross-party majority in HofC with amazingly little fuss or mess.
BTW, an example of extreme electoral measures by a “British” Prime Minister was in Canada during WWI, when PM Robert Laird Borden and his Conservative-Liberal conscriptionist National coalition goverment enacted the following measures prior to the 1917 general election:
1. Disenfranchised all Canadian citizens naturalized after 1902 (or thereabouts) who immigrated from Germany, Austria-Hungary or another Enemy Power unless they had a relative in the forces; also disenfranchised conscientious objectors. Also helpful to the government were statements by top army brass that farmers sons wouldn’t be drafted because they were needed on the land; but in practice this dispensation was largely restricted to Anglo Canadians, with lesser application to French Canadians and especially new immigrants from Russia, Ukraine, Eastern and Southern Europe.
2. Gave the vote to women with relatives in the forces, on the theory that they would vote as “proxies” for men serving overseas.
3. However, the goverment made VERY generous provison for servicemen to cast their own ballots, including allowing them to vote in any consitituency of their choice. What happened was, this vote was tightly organized by the government, which proceeded to vote entire regiments in marginal constituencies. Which won a significant number of seats that otherwise would have gone to the anti-conscriptionist Liberals led by former Prime Minister Sir Wilfrid Laurier. Note that Abraham Lincoln also used the military vote to some advantage in the 1864 presidential election, but with nowhere near the same degree of organization.
Of course Borden acted in the belief he was helping to save the British Empire and protect Canada from the Hun. And he had the support of the majority of English Canada. BUT French Canada said NON. Borden won the election, Canada won the war, but the nation was severely divided. And whereas before 1900 Quebec had been part of the Conservative base and kept the Tories in power for many years after Confederation, from 1917 forward la belle province became a Liberal bastion. And to this day remains a very tough nut for the Tories to crack. Stephen Harper gave it a go, but he’s blown it.
11. “It’s simply illogical to say ‘35% support A, 20% support B, therefore 55% support (A+B)’.”
Well, a) I didn’t say that, and b) even if I had it would be a hell of a lot more logical to say that than ‘36% support A, therefore 51% support A’.
“Possibly, but then again possibly not. You have no evidence to be able to confidently state that it would.”
In other words, [citation needed]? Wikipedia is thatta way. Although, as it happens I do have enough evidence to state it confidently, ie. I can decide for myself what makes me feel confident about something! Not absolute proof, admittedly, but then I have no absolute proof I’m not the only sentient being on the planet. But I’m going out on a limb on the basis of the available evidence to confidently state that I’m not.
As one of my other comments disappeared into the ether, I;m going to have another go with it in a minute…
Hmm, no luck. As that was about my fourth go, I’ll have to admit defeat. Pity, though, it was a damn fine post.
8 - strictly speaking, the Australian Governor General did not order the election. He dissolved the government and invited the opposition leader to form a government. Said leader then in his 1st and only act as PM dissolved parliament and requested an election, which was granted by the GG.
All this took place is just a few hours (or even less than an hour) which is why the controversy reigns.
13. SSI: ‘Tis instructive how quickly Tories revert to Divine Right, even in the 21st century.
Neither JohnLoony nor I is a Tory.
14. Red Meteor:
a) I didn’t say that,
Granted, but supporters of PR and/or coalitions often at least imply it.
and b) even if I had it would be a hell of a lot more logical to say that than ‘36% support A, therefore 51% support A’.
FPTP advocates do not believe that there is anything magical about a majority. Rightly so, since at least a quarter of the electorate don’t vote.
19. Well, yes, it’s very clear that FPTP advocates are big fans of minority rule. In which case, there has never been a better time to be alive - the current government being elected by just 22% of the registered electorate was one for the true connoisseurs.
20. Red Meteor: Well, yes, it’s very clear that FPTP advocates are big fans of minority rule.
Plurality rule.
It is just as possible to gerrymander STV as FPTP. In Malta, till a constitutional amendment, the Labour Party on occasion “won” the election despite “losing” to the Nationalists in the popular vote.
Here in the UK, the LDs used to propose 3 seat STV regions for some of their areas (Highlands) where they are (were) over-represented, but larger 5+ seat regions where they were under-represented.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maltese_general_election,_1981
Words are very unneccesary; they can only do harm:
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/07/browns-britain.html
Brown could try it! (Thread Piece)
I think a Coup would happen in that respect………
Got to go out! Early start and all that to attend a breakfast meeting!
16. It had dropped into the spam folder due to “jiggery-p*o*kery” containing a banned word. It’s back as post 11.
14. SSI - extending the life of the parliament would indeed require an act of parliament (the method used in WWII was to up the number of years before the parliament expired by one each year until the war ended). However, I’m talking about something slightly different: government without parliament.
The three years between meetings of parliament is a relic of the earlier 17th century. Even by 1694 it might have been outdated. Even so, the provision’s still there. The concept is still in force today: during any general election there is no membership of the House of Commons (there are special provisions for the Speaker). This would simply be extending it a bit further.
As I mention in the article, I don’t for a minute think that the government would try to govern until 2013 on this basis. Indeed, it would be practically impossible as it would lose both the power to levy significant taxes (which lapse annually if not approved by the Commons), and the means to raise them (or replacements). What it might just manage is a delay of a few weeks - or at the outside, months - if there were a national crisis. That could impact on the betting for the election date. Such a crisis did occur in 2001.
However, unlike John Loony, I didn’t know of this provision and I’d guess that many other readers didn’t either. If it was the subject of a thread at some point in the last five years, I either missed it or have forgotten it. Either way, I thought it was an interesting starting point for debate.
I once wrote an essay after taking magic mushrooms.
David.
It looked very much like this.
I’ve pointed out a couple of times that the odds of an election taking place after June 2010 aren’t that great: 1 in 50 if the experience of the last 100 years is to be used to generate the odds.
Off topic, there was some discussion about the Alan Johnson article in the Independent on the last thread. I lose respect for politicians who lie about their opponents.
Alan Johnson wrote:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alan-johnson-labour-must-embrace-voting-reform-1736168.html
“Cameron wrote an article describing PR (the voting system rather than his profession) as a step backwards. His defence of FPTP was the familiar one. It allows the electorate to vote “strong” governments in and keep the BNP out.”
The David Cameron article is here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/25/david-cameron-a-new-politics1
His rationale for opposing PR was as follows:
“But it’s also why a Conservative government will not consider introducing proportional representation, as many participants in A New Politics have demanded. The principle underlying all the political reforms a Conservative government would make is the progressive principle of redistributing power and control from the powerful to the powerless. PR would actually move us in the opposite direction, which is why I’m so surprised it’s still on the wish-list of progressive reformers. Proportional representation takes power away from the man and woman in the street and hands it to the political elites. Instead of voters choosing their government on the basis of the manifestos put before them in an election, party managers would choose a government on the basis of secret backroom deals. How is that going to deliver transparency and trust?”
This, as you can see, has nothing to do with strong government or keeping the BNP out. Indeed, the BNP are not mentioned anywhere in this article. If Alan Johnson can’t deal with the arguments of his opponents, he should not misrepresent them.
27 - and no spelling mistakes!! Well done. First?
The Civil Contingencies Legislation would allow, in a National Emergency, Ministers to, in effect, rule by decree.
Brown could enact it, saying that the terrorist threat was red hot etc. etc. and the general election could be put back indefinately. If they ever call a general election!
Do not forget that Brussels can now send in police/armies from other EU countries to ”’help”’ Brown put down riots etc.
The Nazi’s in Common Purpose and Government will control totally.
People just do not realise how close we are to a dictatorship.
Swine flu: Scots will be forced to wait 1½ years for full vaccination
Published Date: 08 July 2009
By Tom Peterkin
HEALTH bosses have admitted that the NHS will not be able to vaccinate all of the Scottish population against swine flu until November 2010 – almost 1½ years away.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Swine-flu-Scots-will-be.5437234.jp
Of course Cameron is in favour of FPTP elections. It is just self-interest. It is the only system that can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.
32 - Well done for completely missing the point that I was making.
I didn’t find it an intersting one, Antifrank.
What a wonderful photo of the Prime Minister to start the day,I feel better already !!!
34 - If you don’t find it interesting that the current poster boy to replace Gordon Brown, who trades heavily on his integrity, should be caught in such a stupid lie (one which so far as I am aware no other commentator has yet drawn attention to), I have to wonder if this is the site for you.
36 - I think you may have the wrong article.
Cameron: PR would aid BNP
Joe Murphy, Political Editor
02.06.09
David Cameron today hit back at Health Secretary Alan Johnson’s call for voting reform, warning that it could hand real power to the racist British National Party.
In a hard-hitting article for the Evening Standard, he said the BNP was on the brink of winning a seat in the European Parliament in this Thursday’s elections.
Anyway.
Given Daves performance on Quango Chiefs pay this week, it may not be the best time to draw a contrast with his honesty.
Any delay or posponement of the GE, under any guise, (which I suggested could happen weeks ago on PB), would bring riots to the streets of Britain in a form not seen for over a century. Perhaps even the start of civil war and the immediate breakaway of Scotland from England.
It would mark the seisure of power by a coup, (something we discussed here last week), and an end to another democracy.
If the BNP have enough electoral support, they ought to see their candidates elected. What’s wrong with that - apart from the fact that you don’t like their policies. It’s called democracy.
In any case, the BNP stand a far better chance of getting their candidates elected under FPTP.
If Cameron were sincere, he would support the introduction of STV to make sure that minorities are not represented too easily.
antifrank@29, I think it’s more likely that Johnson’s be referring to the article referenced here:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23702505-details/Cameron:+PR+would+aid+BNP/article.do
…rather than the one you linked, which as you say limits itself to stuff about transparency and accountability and studiously avoids anything that would cause Guardian readers from choking on their organic muesli.
37, 40 - Thank you very much. I apologise to Alan Johnson for besmirching his name.
39. Your argument is a bit convoluted Pat. There is no telling how the minor parties would do in a GE under STV.
Anyway can you perhaps tell us why here is a Poll Famine going on.
David, Don’t, just don’t.
38, not quite. If the Queen died during the general election campaign, polling would be delayed to allow for the funeral, without much public outcry. In fact, there’d probably be at least as many people offended at the idea of political campaigning during a time of national mourning.
However, that is pretty much the minimum scale of event needed for the public to accept a delayed election, and even then only by a few weeks.
Entertaining piece, David - John Loony may have always known about it as he says, but it’s news to me. It’s worthy of a Saturday Morus whimsy.
I’ve got my latest 10 Minute Rule Bill today, the co-sponsors including Ann Widdecombe, David Blunkett and the Tory animal welfare spokesman Andrew Rossendale. The proposal is to make the default assumption in sheltered accommodation and care homes that people are allowed to keep a pet in their living quarters (in the former usually a self-contained flat, in the latter usually a room). The manager needs to produce reasons why it can’t be done in a particular case (e.g. a dog for whom no arrangement for walking can be made). The point is that losing one’s home and part of one’s independence is traumatic enough without having to give up (maybe even put down) one’s companion animal. Possibly a Bill that could win even MTF’s support? There are practical issues but the Cinnamon Trust has a list for 500 care homes where it’s the established practice (worth noting in case you ever have a relative in this dilemma).
I’m not surprised to find that the local media are far more interested (TV, radio and press coverage) in this than in what I might do on the constitutional reform committee. The latter has had a useful little victory, though - following a revolt by most of us against the original terms of reference, we are now going to be able to put forward proposals for the handling of Government business (e.g. allowing backbenchers to amend timetable motions).
Amdrew Rossendale? Did you mean Andrew Rosindell the Hon. Member for Romford?
46. Aargh Bring back the edit feature ‘Amdrew’ = ‘Andrew’
Sorry!
45. Good luck with your 10-minute rule bill Nick. A very sensible and intelligent idea.
Is Brown doing PMQs today or will he have left for the G8?
Thanks David. I didn’t know about this means of delay in moving the writ. I’m not sure I trust the Queen to do anything about it if Brown used it. Given how much transfer of legislative power to the EU Commission she has overseen without making a fuss, I’m not sure she’s that keen to step in. A word in Brown’s ear perhaps, but what’s that worth? As for people taking to the streets, we’re often told that the next outrage by Brown will result in people rioting but we haven’t seen it yet.
A few thoughts on what events could result in the GE being delayed:
1. Death of senior Royal
2. Death of main party leader (Cleggy probably wouldn’t count!)
3. Disease epidemic, e.g. swine flu as mentioned above
4. Mayor terrorist attack, e.g. Parliament hit by 747
5. Natural disaster, e.g. flooding of half of East Anglia
6. War
I would have thought that the combined odds of the above must be narrower than 50/1.
51 Sandy - Especially 3. We already have a pandemic, all it needds is for the (compliant) 4th estate to whip up panic about increased virulency/morbidity of swine flu and Robert’s your fathers brother.
51 – “Mayor” terrorist attack, is that a major typo or an outrageous smear on Boris Johnson?
The Queen acts solely on the advice of her Ministers, so if they did not ask her to move the writs they would not be moved. Any other action - now that WOULD be a constitutional crisis! Further, so long as HMG can beg, borrow or steal enough to get by, it could survive. Charles I did for 11 years. Further yet, it could adopt emergency powers, to which there is essentially no limit and for which Parliament is otiose.
It’s futile to say the public wouldn’t wear it. What exactly are they do do? Rise up as one man and descend on Whitehall waving pitchforks. Do me a favour!
We have a “good chap” constitution, workable so long as those pulling the levers are good chaps. What happens when they’re not is an experiment which has not been tried since the 17th century. But HMG is now clearly bad, and quite possibly mad, so we may soon find out.
John Loony’s right, by the way. It was blogged somewhere or other last year, but this is the first formal treatment I’ve seen.
FPT
Tim
Ray Boulger is not a “previous house price pessimist” he is a serial property ramping swivel-eyed loon who said a couple of years ago that borrowing 8x your salary would soon be the norm. He is hardly a neutral commentatot, being in charge of a mortgage brokers.
His absurd dismissal of the normal practice of seasonal adjustment is laughable.
http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=8823933&sort=whole for more on Boulger, who is held in contempt by anyone who is not a prat.
House prices currently undergoing a dead cat bounce, soon to resume their donwards trend IMHO.
I am not sure why this news would put a smile on Gordon’s face - he gets maybe 3 or 4 months more time in power and then suffers an even bigger defeat?
Unless there is a genuine requirement (and swine flu is not a genuine requirement as a pandeminc cannot be ‘controlled’ by stopping elections) the British electorate would not react well to a coup d’etat - for so it would be (fairly accurately) painted by the MSM and opposition.
The opposition campaign (all parties) would merely need to be a boot up Brown’s bum and the words ‘and the horse you rode in on’
51, 52 Re: Flu hysteria, I was ordered home on Monday because my daughter (not me!) has Swine Flu. She was not well, and off school for a week, but she has been fit and able enough to see “Titanic” about 78 times in a row. I feel great, and am thoroughly enjoying an extra few days’ unplanned break.
No idea why The Powers That Be thought that I ought to be quarantined, though.
55 - I read it as him changeing his forecasts from previously predicting a 5% fall this year, which is why I used the term.
I just feel a little sorry for SeanT.
Poor lad took Herd Housing advice.
53. Woops! I obviously can’t get Boris out my brain - or maybe it is H’Angus the Monkey!
BTW Picture of Boris in one of the papers this morning accompanying story “British men don’t know how to dress in summer”, highlighted in Sky News paper review.
51
Anyone watching, ‘Torchwood’ can see lots of reasons to delay a GE.
This is perhaps more interesting to ponder on.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/alan-johnson-labour-must-embrace-voting-reform-1736168.html
Amusing thread, but as noted above the only realistic scenarios where this could happen are a world war or the death of the monarch, and the latter would bring only a short delay.
Moreover, in the former case, the quid pro quo would almost certainly be the formation of a national government - of which Brown would almost certainly not be Prime Minister.
So it’s no smiles at all for Brown I’m afraid.
51 - Swine flu should not be a reason for postponing an election. Foot and mouth was a good reason for doing so.
I don’t see a terrorist attack as being likely to postpone an election. Either the election would already have been called, in which case it would be important to hold the election to show that “we don’t give in to terrorists”, or it would not, in which case it would need to be timed more or less precisely to justify postponing an election past 3 June 2010.
The death of a royal (even the queen) should not be a ground for postponing an election. Likewise a party leader.
But I agree with the general thrust of your post. On rereading my original post, I realise that I used “great” ambiguously: I meant that I don’t see a postponement as that long a longshot. Interestingly, none of the bookies cater for it.
re 57. Augustus - can swine flu be transmitted on the internet? If so please take precautions when posting here.
Without identifying any, there are a number of schools that have cases of swine flu here in Surrey, advice is not to close but parents may well vote with their feet. It appears reckless to invite the spread of it but it now appears to be policy.
58. Eh? The Halifax says they are still falling.
****** Breaking News ******
Halifax: house prices fall 0.5%
Green shoots Tim?
63 - Indeed. LibDems banned here until further notice.
46: Er… yes!
48: Thanks Steve!
61 And if there was a senior royal death - ie the Queen then would a subsequent GE get out the patriot/monarchy vote or the republicans who saw it as a opportunity?
The former I think.
69. Do republicans even vote? Aren’t they generally anti-everything “I don’t vote it only encourages them” types?
63,67 It’s OK, I go and wash my hands every time Tim or Martin Day post something interesting…….
Morning All,
Very entertaining post.
I have to say, I have a lot less confidence in HM than the rest of you. I can’t see her ever putting her own neck on the block just to stop the PM from doing something which is clearly wrong and unfair but not strictly against the law. She just wouldn’t take the risk.
As we saw in 1997, it took her several days even to consent to flying a flag at half mast. It would take her months to decide to go against the PM, and by that time he’d have to go to the country in any case because the money would have run out.
Still, interesting scenario.
Rob
45
100% support Nick, pets are very important to elderly people, to be separated as they are now is extremely cruel and unacceptable, but it does depend on the animal, I mean a Vietnamese pot bellied pig wouldn’t be what one would envisage as permissible…
If Brown delays the election beyond the last accepted date in 2010, there will be civil war and violent insurrection and that is a promise!!!!!
64. At the school where my other half teaches in west London, a note was sent out to aprents yesterday to say that there has been a swine flu case in the school. School will remain open, but parents instructed to keep their kids off if they show any flu symptoms. Note also said that swine flu was already present in the local community, so keeping away from school would not necessarily take away the risk of catching it.
Both of us had flu-like symptoms a couple of weeks back, so I might have had swine flu without even knowing it.
Can someone PLEASE tell me why Sean T flounced, I must have missed it.
71 You don’t wash them much then Augustus.
And what’s all this about making your daughter watch Titanic. Isn’t that a cruel and unusual punishment?
Oh dear why feed the paranoid?
Can anyone give a convincing reason why Brown would delay by a few weeks or months given that it would uttrly destroy Labour permanently?
Its not like he could turn round in October ad convince anyone to vote for him - ‘I have usurped power, but growth is up to 0.1%, you must vote for me’
45 - Interesting idea. From my limited experience, there are bigger problems with the quality of care homes in this country than whether they will allow residents to have pets.
(I expect that your riposte to that would be that those homes that currently allow residents to have pets will probably be among the better ones anyway. Whether there is a causal link such that forcing others to do the same will improve the quality of their care is something I doubt.)
I don’t see this as a no-brainer at all. I would be far more supportive of a measure that required local authorities to ensure that there were sufficient places in care homes with availability for pets for those who needed their services, rather than to require all care homes to consider admitting pets.
Mystic Tim
Previous House Price pessimist reverses forecast.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/5765162/Comment-House-prices-will-rise-this-year.html
by tim July 7th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
LOL
“No more boom and bust”
72. You also need to remember that the British constitution is based on precedents, not just statutes.
In the minds of practically everyone in the country with an interest, five years is considered the maximum length of a parliament - and this entrenched understanding counts for a great deal more than obscure legal loopholes of the sort David has outlined in today’s story.
Any attempt to get around this by legal jiggery-p*kery would constitute an unconstitutional act, and I am sure would bring a dramatic reaction from the public - even before it became an issue for the Lords and HM the Queen.
Any PM who tried that would incur the wrath of the nation - it COULD be done in a time of national emergency but only with the agreement of opposition parties.
I think you would find the queen would appoint Cameron as PM who would call an immediate general election where Labour would be completely obliterated.
61. If the Queen were to die during the course of an election campaign, the election date would automatically be put back by 14 days as per the RPA 1985. The details are contained in Section D of the document linked in the lead article. This could be extented further were formal public mourning to be proclaimed, though given the 14 days provision, that’s unlikely.
Once an election has been announced, there’s no other mechanism besides public mourning that could prevent the election going ahead as planned. That’s distinct from a delay *between* the expiration (or dissolution, though the paper’s not clear on that), and the issuing of writs.
54. No, the power to dissolve parliament and call an election is a Reserve Power of the crown and not one on which she acts on the advice of ministers. If HMQ felt it necessary to act against a PM’s request for an election (or in this case, for there not to be an election), she’s constitutionally entitled to do so. Realistically, she could only act is such a way if the PM was acting against the fabric of the country’s democracy.
Maggie Thatcher Fan@73, call yourself a Maggie Thatcher fan?
Care homes and their pet policies should be a matter for care home residents and the people who run them. We don’t need the government poking its meddling little fingers in and leaving care homes wasting their time and their residents’ money making up justifications for their pet policies, all just to satisfy some box-ticking bureaucrat. Bah.
76. MTF. ST insulted Robert Smithson, went off on a rant about stuff and got told off by Morus and then blustered, was chided by others and then left.
Morning all and if you look back through posts a couple of weeks ago I did say that we could expect Gordon to find a reason to declare a State of Emergency around Easter 2010 in order to delay the General Election.
I have to say that if he did try to delay the election for any reason short of a nuclear attack by China then there would be riots in the streets. After all Churchill called a General Election while we were still fighting a war in the Far East.
Yet another soldier killed this morning which brings to 7 this week. How much longer before Brown really has to start answering questions about our troops being blown up while travelling in substandard vehicles unlike the Americans. Reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge where the Germans were driving around with hoses to syphon out any petrol or diesel they came across while the Americans were so well stocked they were able to fly Christmas puddings to their troops.
The Mail on ‘Bernie’s’ latest.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1198225/LEO-MCKINSTRY-Why-Formula-One-thrall-Nazis.html
‘Don’t mention the Illuminati Bernie, I did, but I think I got away with it’
Hmmm so if you supported Facism in the 30’s, it was to your, ‘eternal shame’ how much, ‘eternal shame’ do you think the owners of the, ‘Mail’ have ever felt.
Still looking at that photo, I now know where Fabricant sends his cast off wigs.
Can I write something about the electoral consequences of invading lizard men (you know, like in the 80s TV show ‘V’) endorsing David Icke as World Grand Poo-Bah?
Because there’s as much chance of that happening as Brown delaying an election until 2013.
We all seem to be missing the very justification that Gordon has already given for delaying an election.
It would cause chaos because the Tories would win it
86 Yes, the general view was that slagging Mike off was OK within reason, but having a go at Robert was well out of order. Sean transgressed The Code, and is now swimming with the pixellated fishes.
Morning all
antifrank was of course correct in his main point - that Alan Johnson’s article completely misrepresents Cameron’s stated views on FPTP.
But to me the most interesting aspect of Alan Johnson’s piece is how poor it is. It contains a few snide jokes which his readers in the Fabian Review will like, but apart from that it is a real switch-off. If this man is meant to be a great communicator who can reach out to the electorate as a whole, he’ll have to do a lot better than that.
And was it really wise politics to refer to Martin Bell as an example of “irritating self-righteous men in white suits”?
89 - There’s a far higher chance of Brown delaying an election until 2013. An election has been delayed past the allotted end date of a Parliament twice in the last 100 years, as I have already pointed out, and delayed substantially.
60 - interesting piece by Johnson.
Smart politics to fight an election against Safe Seats Dave and his Cabinet of Expenses cheats.
No Safe Seats, No Expenses Cheats
Has a nice ring to it.
92 Given Johnson’s own choice of pale grey suits, I think he’s on thin sartorial ice.
I am aware of the fact that as I type this offering there are 400 odd souls 15 miles down the road on a large liner berthed in Invergordon, throwing up and sh1tting uncontrollably!
Looking seriously at Swine Flu, if it does take hold this autumn/winter, there are some constituencies where it could have a dramatic effect. We know that each of the people who have sadly died thus far in the UK (7 at latest count is it not)have had underlying medical problems. I do wonder what effect it might have in somewhere like Glasgow East which has a disproportionately high number of people who suffer from obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, smoking and alcohol related health problems among the younger people plus among the older people the illnesses classicly related to years of working in the heavy industries. Life expectancy there is already in the low 60s. Replicate that all over the country and there must be concerns that in some areas it will have a disproportionate effect.
92. RN. Which is why Harriet Harman is the only logical choice. She is a leader of men. I find her policies bizarre, but alone of the front bench, HH has impressed on radio and TV. She doesnt sound oily like Mandelson or just unimpressive like Johnson. She doesnt sound like a oddball like Balls or the Millibands. Straw is OK, but somewhat tainted.
I think Cruddas sounds good too, but I think he made a mistake in refusing to join the cabinet. With cabinet experience and with the new strength of ministers vs the PM, I suspect Cruddas could have become far more credible in the short time since he refused to become a Minister. I think I’m right in believing he was offered a position? I suppose it might have depended on what position it was.
92. RN. Which is why Harriet Harman is the only logical choice. She is a leader of men. I find her policies bizarre, but alone of the front bench, HH has impressed on radio and TV. She doesnt sound oily like Mandelson or just unimpressive like Johnson. She doesnt sound like a oddball like Balls or the Millibands. Straw is OK, but somewhat tainted.
I think Cruddas sounds good too, but I think he made a mistake in refusing to join the cabinet. With cabinet experience and with the new strength of ministers vs the PM, I suspect Cruddas could have become far more credible in the short time since he refused to become a Minister. I think I’m right in believing he was offered a position? I suppose it might have depended on what position it was.
“There’s a far higher chance of Brown delaying an election until 2013.”
Only in the sense that a million-to-one is far higher than a billion-to-one.
re 86. I think you can find the SeanT exchanges on this thread.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/06/30/are-shares-in-mandelson-over-sold/
96 An interesting dilemma - hold an election early before your core vote shuffles off its mortal coil, or bet on more Tory blue-rinses succumb first?
99 - I wish you were a bookie.
In the state of unprecedented civil chaos which would have to exist for Brown to stay in office until 2013, collecting your winnings from the bookie would be the very least of your worries.
Newsnight’s response to the criticism of its biased panel:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2009/07/newnights_politics_pen.html
I could write a piece lamenting the fact that when Osama bin Laden takes over the world all betting will be banned, and it’d have as much credence as this.
93. Yes Antifrank all Brown needs to do is engineer a world war on the eve of the election - simple, really.
103 - I don’t recall civil chaos in 1939/40 or 1914-16. In the middle of July 1914, no one in Britain was thinking of war. Unpleasant shocks can emerge from out of the blue very suddenly.
107. Are you that old?
97 ken
I agree with you. Harriet is by far the most able of the putative candidates, objectionable though her policies are. Straw is just dull. Cruddas talks sense, and ought to be in the running in a post-election contest if he keeps his seat, but certainly not pre-election.
But I don’t think the two of us are going to have any say in the selection!
Good morning, everybody.
I hope you’re just flying a kite here, Mr Herdosn. If there were any kind of serious attempt by Brown to delay the General Election I fear that there would be rioting in the streets. A few weeks ago, when it looked as though we had him on the ropes, roughly 75% of people wanted a General Election. Most of them still do. They’ve now had to accept, albeit reluctantly, that they’re probably) stuck with him until May. But, in my judgement, that’s absolutely the limit of what they’ll put up with.
How far does the Labour vote have to fall before some Labour ministers finally perceive how much they’re hated and, above all, how much Gordon Brown is hated? It’s become personal, now, with a lot of people who don’t know him but feel as though they do. I know several people who literally can’t stand the sight of him and turn the TV off the moment he appears. If they’re denied the right to vote him out legitimately, I think they’ll take matters into their own hands. They’ve already shown at the ballot box that they’ll do whatever it takes to get rid of him. If it turns out that what it takes to get rid of him is civil unrest on the grand scale, I think they’ll do that, too. It will make the poll tax riots and the anti-Iraq war demonstrations look like small beer. Given the G20 debacle, we can’t be confident that the police will deal with it appropriately, either. It’s perfectly on the cards that someone will be killed. How would his vaunted moral compass cope with that?
I just hope, for the sake of the Labour Party, that his ministerial colleagues talk some sense into him before that happens. It’s in everybody’s interests, including their own, because, if Brown really does try some kind of trick to stay in power, Labour will never, ever be forgiven.
100
Tks Mike, errr am I to assume that seant doesn’t like the Labour Party?
I do think allowances should be made for seant’s Cornish ancestry, its a burden, that has probably produced mental illness.
He’s bi-polar y’know.
109 I can’t bear HH policies but she is a really good performer, has a big constituency in the Party [that voted her Deputy] and would be a very firm leader that would hold them together after the GE.
858
EIT
Have you ever done any social work, Have you ever seen the hearbreak of an elderly person being forcibly separated from their pet. I am sure you havent.
86 thanks Ken
Of course the point is moot (but thanks for an amusing article, David).
In practice, I think you might well proceed by way of a judicial review if Parliament was not dissolved before expiring. There is a clear legitimate expectation arising from many statements and decades of practice that Parliament will be dissolved before expiring and an election called. Probably an open and shut case. Suspect you could throw in some other grounds too.
Brown will not delay the election, full stop.
45 In such circumstances, I think it would be better for the pet to be rehomed. People who can no longer live independently are not in a good position to look after pets, IMHO, and it would be an unfair imposition on the staff who worked at care homes to require them to look after pets. I think rehoming is very much in the interests of animals in those circumstances.
On topic, that’s a fascinating article.
WRT PR, I suspect that the principal reason for the Conservative Party’s objection to it is they’d have to govern in coalition with UKIP, and possibly with some degree of toleration from the BNP.
45
Nick Palmer
‘I’ve got my latest 10 Minute Rule Bill today’
With animal protection being one of your pet projects,what action have you taken or your government to ban the Halal & Kosher slughter of animals.
The Farm Animal Welfare Council(FAWC)which advises the government on how to avoid cruelty to livestock recommended some time ago that this form of slaughter should end as it causes severe suffering to animals.
Why has there been no action on this?
111 coldstone - do you know that SeanT suffers from bipolar disease? If not you’re spreading smears where the recipient no longer chooses to have the right to respond
88.
” I now know where Fabricant sends his cast off wigs.”
I thought he was saving the ones he hadn’t given to Widders as a bequest for his party leader?
113 I don’t doubt it, but it’s not practical. Dogs need to be walked, and cats need to roam, and neither is feasible in a care home.
1945:
The country was devastated, British troops were spread all over the globe, still fighting in the Far East and we still had a GE.
If Brown wants to try and pull this stunt, I recommend IJ’s answer @ 2
113.
“Have you ever seen the hearbreak of an elderly person being forcibly separated from their pet.”
Doesn’t Private Eye regularly show a photograph of such an event, the elderly person in question being an esteemed political commentator.
118, haha. As if Labour would ever do that. Sadly I doubt the Tories would either. The Quran weighs more heavily than the welfare of animals in the political scales, unlike the Rig Veda (the sacred cow suspected of having TB was put down, I recall).
117 Can’t agree Sean. I’m sure there are too many care homes who just take the unthinking view “can’t be arsed with pets - ban the lot”, even though the distress to the person concerned is massive. They should be made to give damn good reasons why a pet has to go. Sometimes they will have those reasons. But make them at least think, rather than take the blanket “thou shalt not” route.
117 To remove an elderly person’s last link with their old life is heartless. I can’t think of anything worse than to lose my home, privacy and then my companion.
Provided the pet is nothing out of the usual ie cat/dog/bird etc then I can see no reason why arrangements can’t be made to help a resident to look after it.
Oldsters get a really raw deal as it is - this is the icing on the cake for me in terms of treating their emotional well-being as a problem.
Not if he wants to live to 2013. by IJ
Damn right. If Brown wanted to endure the worst defeat in British history then he’d try something like this because it would be seen by everyone (including the Labour party) as the last throws of a corrupt, sleazy, incompetent, dictatorial, Mugabe-esque and undemocratic Prime Minister. This would be akin to the reintroduction of an absolute monarch named Brown. It would ultimately show not just how nasty Labour have become but show complete disregard for the people. But he wouldn’t even get as far as an election as in my opinion this would lead to a civil revolt and violence in the streets.
66.
“Green shoots Tim?”
But was it fatal? Maybe the Torybots on here will have a ‘whip round’ for his manslaughter defence? I’m sure Max and Bernie will toss something into the pot.
127 That would make him even older than Jack W
127 - I can just imagine Nick Palmer’s canvass returns after knocking on your door.
119
My dear wife, once ran a housing project, for a trust which dealt with artists, writers, musicians etc. The seant type was well represented, bi-polarity is common amongst creative people, they don’t think of it as being shameful, they are quite proud of it.
Reading seant’s posts, you don’t need a degree in pyschiatric medicine to work out that he is bi-polar.
p.s.
seant complaining about smears, c’mon!
87 E
I hadn’t seen your post at 87 and was already annoyed after reading the last topic. Suffice to say I agree, and there is no possibility of Brown postponing elections until 2013, short of nuclear war
O/T. It has been reported that Second Fiddle Mandelson has banned the Gormley public art experiment in Trafalgar Square between sunset and sunrise. Apparently ‘There’s only one Plinth of Darkness’.
Did we get to the bottom of whether it’s HH at PMQ’s today?
As a thank you for paying attention to my request, here is your cuddly “Aaaaaaaah - so sweet!” moment for the day:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/8138867.stm
131 coldstone so you admit that, without any medical/psychiatric training, and going on second hand hearsay you can diagnose manic depression. I’m also a little incredulous that you can genralise saying creative people are proud of having a mental disorder.
Message to Morris Dancer - there’s a happy chappy at the top of this thread that needs slapping about a bit with an enormo-haddock.
How goes the research? The Nobel Committee are on standby…
Morning all,
It is an interesting and entertaining piece by David but one which I view as implausible as David suggests.
David writes:
However, parliament has not expired in modern times; a dissolution has always been the mechanism through which a general election has been called. That, however, does not mean that a dissolution has to take place.
Yet has there ever been a circumstance in peace time where Parliament has expired and if so under what circumstances was such an expiration forced? What precedent is there for allowing this to happen and what were the implications for the incumbent Government or was it so long ago that it was back in the days when the Monarch actually ruled?
My initial feeling is that it is unprecedented and as such would be extremely risky for a Government to even contemplate. Unless there was a real major crisis (war, famine, pestilence, widespread natural disaster with massive nationwide casualties in the thousands per month), in which case I would have expected a ‘National Government’ to have been temporarily formed, I cannot think of any justification that would not seem contrived in the extreme. Basically, it would require a scenario where ‘normal’ existence in this country had been severely impaired.
Furthermore, unless the nation was in crisis (and something far more serious than foot n’ mouth or swine flu as it stands), I cannot see how any Government could avoid the ridicule and contempt that such a move would likely attract.
Which leads me to the rather obvious attacks that could be justifiably thrown at a Government that attempted such a ploy; effectively the Government would have expired with, no doubt, the resultant jibes about Brown and that Government courtesy of the Monty Python team following:
‘E’s not pinin’! ‘E’s passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker!
‘E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the perch ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies!
‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig!
‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisibile!!
THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!
Now what governing party would want to run a campaign in such an environment?
Does Brown actually want his legacy to be recalled, in its sad and pathetic attempts to cling to power, as the ‘Dead Parrot’ Government? I think not………
No this won’t put a smile on Brown’s face (unless of course he finds the Python’s funny).
Brown won’t delay the election. It will not be acceptable in the “court of public opinion”
136, the enormo-haddock genetic research laboratory is running well, and already great advances have been made in strengthening the fish for enhanced durability.
However, for the mass of Brown matter at the top of the page, only the giant artillery gun, or possibly the solar death ray, would be sufficient for decontamination.
136
So is the Scottish Parliament.
I forsee an Arbroath Smokie mountain, forming the basis of a secure Scottish economy through the next century.
England batting first and playing two spinners.
O/T Are we going to be commenting on the first Ashes test today? I hope to swithch between cricinfo and here so can probably post some updates if people are interested.
Managed to find SeanT’s “rant”-eventually.
I guess he got upset when everyone ganged up on him. Not surprised, as that is what happens when you spout out stuff which the great and the good deem “offensive” or would rather not talk about.
So the panel didn’t like his connention between race and crime. The love that dare not speak its name. They didn’t like my connection between sexuality and (certain) crime either. Think it was Morus too.
Guess he’ll be back soon enough.
141 CHT - you beat me to it
137.
“Does Brown actually want his legacy to be recalled, …as the ‘Dead Parrot’ Government?”
I doubt it, especially if it were to be replaced by Chamereon’s Carrion uselessly picking over the bones:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGTWmrnPdgk
139- The production of a solar death ray could be the ultimate fiscal stimulus.
132- don’t give hime ideas
141 - Or one spinner plus Monty if you’re being unkind (I quite like Monty but this Series is probably crunch time for him to up his game or fade into obscurity).
147 Monty is king and the crowd love him. Multiculturism at its best
Remember this, and remember it well:
Excessive, doom-laden speculation about the end of civilisation, by war, disease, terrorism, climate change or what have you, is like a homophobe’s ranting about homosexuality –
Ultimately it’s much more revealing about the (repressed) issues of the ranter than it is about the ostensible cause for concern.
145 “especially if it were to be replaced by Chamereon’s Carrion”
Nah - it’s going to be Carry On Cameron (after his fifth consecutive election win) - and a right old laugh it’s going to be too.
*O/T Betting Post*
Since it’s such a quiet time on the political betting front, you may like to have my selections for the first day of the Newmarket Meeting. They are:
1.30 Cumana Bay ew 8/1, and Pyrrha ew 12/1
2.00 Shamwari Lodge ew 7/1 [Nap]
2.35 Misheer 4/1
3.10 Spacious ew 5/1
Oh, and Australia to win the Ashes - a steal at even money.
148 - He’s a great bloke but you’d be a fool to ignore the question marks. If he isn’t firing on all cylinders with the ball in his hand then you’re effectively playing with ten men as his batting and fielding are diabolical. And in recent times he hasn’t been firing on all cylinders.
I’m only saying this in the hope that the jinx of Sir Norfolk will come to pass and Monty will have a 10+ wicket match (and maybe pluck out a wonder catch and a quick-fire half century in the first innings).
If I directed a ‘Carry On’ movie, I’d set it in one of those mobile mammography vans that travel around extolling the benefits of annual breast x-rays.
And I’d call it… ‘Carry on Screening’.
151 PtP - Thanks for those. After your phenominal success with the previous tip of your’s I’v had a go on all 5
131, 135, Actually, I am pretty sure that SeanT has made reference to his own bi-polar personality here in the past, but
1. It was a few years ago, and I may have misremembered,
2. I probably wasn’t paying much attention, and
3. Sean may have been being “poetic” rather than “medical” in his diagnosis.
Mildly interesting development on the Betfair Norwich North market: Labour has been replaced as second favourite by “any other”. You can back Labour at 17 (16/1), while “any other” is at 16.5 (31/2). However, such action as there is seems to be on backing and laying the Tories.
145. Wage slave you old reprobate - great bit of video that….
On another point. Let’s just suppose there was a crisis of sufficient magnitude to bring about the forging of a ‘National Government’, would Brown survive to lead it?
Brown already has enough enemies in his own party and the clear contempt of the opposition parties. Could such a crisis force him out of office with someone such as Johnson taking his place (that is assuming that Labour would insist on keeping the Prime Minister’s role)?
154 Thanks Blue - Usual wealth warnings apply, but they are all good value, especially Shamwari Lodge if you can get 7/1. I make it a 4/1 shot.
143.
“didn’t like his connention between race and crime. ”
I see press reports today that various semi-extremist parties in Europe won’t form a ‘group’ with the BNP, even though it will bring them massive extra funding. Even they recognise that association with these white-race criminals wouldn’t do them any good. Perhaps all European decision-making isn’t that bad?
Seeing Shaheen on the News coverasge of the Michael Jackson tribute yesterday reminds me of the recent success and UK public approbation of an Iranian-origin ‘Apprentice’ winner, a Georgian-origin pop singer and of course Lewis Hamilton… Gok Wan…Leona Lewis…Alexandra Burke….Omad Djalili…Daley Thompson….Mylene Klaas….. Colin Jackson (and his sister)….etc etc.. all of whom sound as ‘English’ on the radio as most people I would meet in the street in a Yorkshire market town. I reckon that repatriator and racial-purity merchant Nick Griffin was (thank heavens) basically born too late.
In fact you can go back to Paul Ince, Tom Jones, Cleo Laine and Shirley Bassey!
156.
“such action as there is seems to be on backing and laying the Tories.”
Their only appropriate use - excepting the ones who look like Mad Nad or GideO!
158 PtP I got 13/2 on PP so I’m not too unhappy
155 Yes, he has, Augustus.
I don’t think it is extreme though and of course he will be back. Nobody ever leaves PB.com, the Hotel California of the internet.
151 PtP - Did you see my post late last night regarding SportingBet’s market on Norwich North 2nd position?
Per the Grauniad it was the Italian Lega Nord that pulled the plug.
162 No, Richard. I’ll check it out, although I dislike using Sporting Bet.
125, 126 I take your point, but I think a care home is a bad environment to keep animals in, unless they can be kept in cages.
150.
“Carry On Cameron”
With Eric Pickles playing the Hattie Jaques part, Mad Nad as Kenneth Williams and Widders as Barbara Windsor?
156.
“such action as there is seems to be on backing and laying the Tories.”
Their only appropriate use - excepting the ones who look like Mad Nad or GideO!
Is there a connection between writing blockbuster-style potboilers, and holding political views that are as dodgy as they are strident?
Look at Archer, Tom Clancy, Micheal Crichton… and SeanT?
Has anyone else noticed that we’ve had a major ’soft focus’ Sarah Brown story pretty much every single day recently?
I really doubt anyone cares about this - it won’t influence any votes. But she’s definitely had almost more publicity (pretty much all positive) over the last few days than Our Glorious Leader himself…
Nick Palmer’s pets in nursing homes idea is a non-starter. The amount of health and safety regulations that care homes have to adhere to is phenomenal, and there’s no practical way to make an allowance for pets.
I think NP is going to be hoist by his own New Labour petard.
167. Can we get odds on beardy as next Labour leader?
149. RBH
Was that directed at me? If so what is your point?
169….perhaps Labour strategists might consider killing GB off before the election and allowing Sarah to step in - possible sympathy vote?
171, they wouldn’t even rebel over 10p, they didn’t axe him when he was on his knees. The PLP has all the ferocity of a quadraplegic kitten.
167- It seems to be part of a trend with Brown increasingly relying on people who are unelected, Kinnock, Mandelson, Sugar etc. I wouldn’t mind it if he hadn’t made such an issue of attacking Cameron using his family as “props”. I don’t think it can help Labour much, but having any Labour figure apart from Brown on the telly is a good thing for them.
I’m surprised that none of our Guido Fawkes reading contributors have picked up on his story about the MP for Huntingdon.
He seems to be alleging that the MP paid for an Au Pair from expenses.
He’s certainly paid back £25k for something or other, but the secretive scrutiny panel hasn’t made it clear what for.
If this is true I presume all of Daves Scrutiny Panel findings will be ripe for further investigation.
166-…JK Rowling…
Come on! these guys’ political views are only dodgy because you disagree with them.
157.
“great bit of video that….”
There’s a big battle between Mandy and Bercow as to who gets to deliver: “I’m the King of the Swingers, yeah….” And a late bid from Peter Vain who claims to by the only convincing Orangy-Tan.
173, disagree. Brown’s undoubtedly electoral kryptonite for Labour, but reminding people of Kinnock won’t help. Mandelson’s a talented operator but I doubt he’s exactly popular with Labour voters.
170, it was directed at many people, from NeoConservatives to homophobes, from tyson to sandwich board-wearing, street-corner prophets of doom, and a whole lot more besides.
179.
“MP paid for an Au Pair from expenses.”
Not, presumably, a Peter Jay moment but more a Caroline Spellperson?
176. LOL!
;o)
Interestingly Sarah Brown’s G8 blogging is ‘official’ - the masthead is that of Number 10.
http://sarahbrowng8.wordpress.com/
179 - Will we ever know?
In a spirit of transparency, Daves Scrutiny Panel is not to be scrutinised.
181. It seems we have a new Prime Minister already..when will the bookies pay out?
178. OK fair enough but I just don’t see how that fits with the topics being debated on the thread……
Richard Nabavi
Thanks for the steer. Sadly, Sporting would only allow me only £28 but it’s a great value bet.
Btw, I checked the odds and placed the bet *before* reading your post. (I like to use my own judgement on these matters as far as possible.) Interesting that I reached exactly the same conclusion as you. LDs at 7/2 to come second is a great bet. I make it even money, at worst.
181, so are we paying for that? Nice to see the taxpayer still has the funds to provide for propaganda. Although she’s not a prop, so maybe we should call it Sarahganda. Or Femalecolleaguenumberoneganda (FCNOganda).
174 Its a very difficult one to prove tim - if one were out to ‘get’ the MP for Huntingdon, one would need to prove there was no cleaner and thus the claim was false.
Whether or not he had an Au Apir is irrelevant - its not illegal to have an au pair, and he would have had to pay her/him in cash.
The key here is whether a cleaner was used - if so, there really is nothing further to add.
187 *Au Pair not Au Apir
186 Morris Dancer
I sincerely hope not, as Wordpress blogs without certain bells and whistles are free!
O/T
My son is going off to tour South East Asia and last night we had dinner with the parents of the two people he is travelling with. It turned out that one of the dad’s was a journalist for the Telegraph and one of the other a BBC Producer.
The discussion we had was most interresting.
I put it to the Telegraph jorno that I had stopped buying his newspaper ages ago, due to it’s Labour bias. He agreed but did say that they would go back to tory supporting when they are back in Government. He accepted that this attitude showed disloyalty but it’s a “commercial world with the threat of the internet/decreasing circulation” - others such as the Sun have swapped “politica colours” to keep readership numbers up he added!
I did find some agreement with the Telegraph jorn though when we moved onto the subject of the BBC. We gave the BBC Producer a bit of a grilling over their “Blatant Labour Bias”, which he strongly disagreed with! We gave him loads of examples but he just wouldn’t accept it ! We then moved onto the subject of the BBC’s increasing domination. We put the argument of the huge salaries and pensions they pay there executives. The bottom line is that he just didn’t seem to accept that the BBC is a public body that is accountable to the licence payers “A public Service”. I would say that his views are probably quite typical of how self important and powerful they think they are in the BBC whilst loosing sight of who they are actually accounatble too - It’s Staggering!
176.
Ye jest runnymede but hasn’t this system paid out well over the years in Ceylon, Indonesia, Pakistan(in reverse), Argentina and far too many US States over the years - as well as a fair few UK Town Halls.
? Then there was that Philipino woman with her shoe collection.
181. Wibbler
I notice the comments are turned off. Unsurprising that…..
181. Well done. She’s now fair game.
177- I agree with you on Kinnock, but I haven’t seen her on tv since she became minister for Europe, she’s probably busy learning how to milk her new set of expenses. I was thinking more of Sarah Brown.
Generally speaking a PM can only rely on people who stand to lose more than they would gain if said PM lost power. Milliband, Johnson, Harman and even Balls all seem to have a decent chance of the leadership, Blears and Darling must now be his enemies and back benchers will be looking to the next leader, or else to save their seats. I think that they will all try to avoid close association with Brown from now on.
Mandelson is unpopular, but he’s the only person who benefits from Brown staying in power, I don’t think that any other Labour leader would be weak enough to need such a toxic asset. I think that this is why he has such a high media profile, he’s one of the few people willing to defend Brown.
189, ah, my luddite status is showing.
186.
“Sarah Brown’s G8 blogging is ‘official’ ”
Grossly improper - as would having blogs from Boris’s mistresses on the London Mayor site.
187 - I’m not sure you’re right there. Djangoly claimed whatever it was for cleaning services (which he was entitled to claim for). If any of that money went on things he wasn’t entitled to claim for (such as an au pair), that looks an awful lot like fraud and should be dealt with by the Police, not by an internal “scrutiny panel”.
Like all Guido’s gossip, I err on the side of caution as so much of it is nonsense. But it should be fairly easy for Djangoly to clear up.
387 - He appears to have been claiming £360 per month for cleaning in 2006.
Of course If that was a valid claim why would he pay it back?
197. SNP Why is an au pair excluded when a cleaner is not? An Au Pair by definition is someone who is expected to do cleaning (amongst other things).
I can’t believe that the main strategy for Labour at the moment appears to be Gordon hiding behind small children, audiences comprised of Labour supporters asking planted questions and his prop [sorry wife].
Our national leader didn’t even come out to vote FFS.
Are they hoping we’ll all forget that he’s PM and elect Sarah instead?
185 PtP
I’m glad that you came to the same view independently. I agree that Evens sounds about right.
200, why can’t you believe it? During the last GE Brown and Blair had a phalanx of loyalists ring them so no members of the press could ask them questions.
David - you’re even more famous - Speccie have run with this post
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3754883/could-you-stick-with-gordon-for-3-more-years.thtml
“I just don’t see how that fits with the topics being debated on the thread……”
The topic of the thread is a very silly one which I’m not going to debate.
Mind you, have I *ever* debated? All I do is say what I think, which isn’t the same.
198.
There are a large number of Labour MPs (including Ministers) who have submitted regulat expense claims for cleaning their ’second home’ (sic) in which they live with their spouse, kids etc virtually full-time. Perhaps not quite as much as Djangly but then perhaps they are not quite as dirty as their official conservative colleagues? Nevertheless it baffles me why the taxpayer should foot a bill because they’re too lazy to empty their own waste-bins.
197, 198
If he had a cleaner and that cleaner did ‘cleaning’ then all else is irrelevant.
At £360 per month, receipts will have been provided so in fact it is probably easier for him to demonstrate ‘cleaning’ than if he claimed without receipts.
Fir claims without receipts (less than the required amount) - well, how on earth could anyone prove with what ‘cash’ an MP were paying his au pair? You can’t say this £50 note is public money but that one is from your own funds….
Be interesting to find out what he repaid £25k for as he doesn’t appear to claim mortgage interest.
O/T
Polls polls we must have polls - Does anyone know when and who we are about to receive ?
OT Ecclestone pulls out of German race event - I didn’t realise he was 78!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/jul/08/bernie-ecclestone-german-grand-prix
212.
“You can’t say this £50 note is public money but that one is from your own funds….”
Unless, of course, you are an MP talking about paying your nanny identical amounts in successive weeks from your public funds and your own pocket for identical work and you are up before a committee of your ‘peers’ (very sic).
208 I was YouGov’d yesterday but it seemed more like internal polling about perceptions of front/shadow front benchers and broad policy questions about Europe/tax.
200. Yes that is the idea - minimal exposure for Brown, maximum distraction for the public.
Strangely enough since we have mentioned Swine flu, down at the Post Office this morning, one of the local doctors was saying that they have had a raft of planning instructions in and by the autumn theya re to expect to have to work from 7am to 11pm coping with the sort of numbers who are expected to suffer from the pandemic. 100,000 per day therefore seems to be a realistic expectation for new diagnosis later in the year.
207 - Why would he pay back cleaning claims backed up by receipts?
212, are they going to hide him during a GE? The Tories certainly won’t.
210 if one were that obvious, one would deserve everything one got.
There’s no excuse for lazy larceny.
214 I don’t know what he paid the £25k back for tim, so I can’t really answer that.
215. They will do their best - it will fun watching.
214.
“Ecclestone pulls out of German race event ”
Slavica had already pulled the rug from the old egg and spooning
Presumably Max Mosely would not object to such a withdrawal of a member of the English race provided that there was a whip-round at the end to make everybody happy?
215 I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we only see Gordon at staged events and interviewed by Marr.
If he’s too scared to vote and does it by post because ‘he’s too busy’ then nothing would surprise me.
What a wimp - wants to run the country and this is how he conducts himself.
207 - Guido claims (correctly or not) the cleaner claims were unreceipted. If he was claiming more than he was paying for cleaning services (again totally unproven either way) then it looks very much like fraud. I think you’re getting sidetracked on tracing whether the physical funds went to the au pair or to pay for something else - if they didn’t go for cleaning services, that’s all that matters because cleaning services was what was on the form.
The trouble with the secrecy is that just saying “he’s repaid £25K” leads to all sorts of questions and speculation (much of it no doubt wrong). They should say why he’s repaid it.
Nick Robinson Blog: “Many Labour MPs depressed by Brown’s 10p victory”
What a bunch of no hopers !
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
214 tim
As you well know, Conservative MPs are voluntarily paying back some claims which were perfectly valid under the rules and the previous interpretation of the rules.
I don’t know anything about this particular case, but you certainly can’t assume that because money has been paid back, that the claim wasn’t valid.
You know that of course.
225.
“this is how he conducts himself.”
He want’s to emulate John Major’s public favour-currying resurrection?
220. Yes I’m sure the Beeb will do its best to help.
No doubt you discussed it at length overnight on the last thread but does anyone know the real reason why Lord Marsh Mallow is resigning as a foreign Office Minister for “seriously personal and family reasons” as Pravda reported it today.
221 I agree entirely. How do you however prove whether unreceipted money went on cleaning? Thats the whole point of not requiring receipts at that level of expenditure.
But yes, were it claimed and not spent on cleaning it would be tantamount to fraud.
Very much in the same way if Gordon Brown or Alan Johnson’s unreceipted food claims (for example) were not spent on food then it would be tantamount to fraud.
227 Well at least we can assume that Tom Watson ate the food he claimed for
226. I asked the same question last night.
Is he -
a) fed up with hanging around with such a sorry bunch of losers?
b) heading for greener pastures in some international sinecure?
c) telling the truth?
Fill in the odds as you see fit…
228 that much is certain!
Don’t think much of her answer on that one.
227 - You surely talk to the cleaner in the first instance? I agree the unreceipted system for anything other than the most trivial of “paperclip” claims is pretty ludicrous.
223 - Isn’t the problem of the “scrutiny panel” being so secretive that it encourages this sort of speculation (originally from a basically Tory blogger rather than Tim on this occasion)?
1st English wicket down. did Gordon Brown send them a good luck note?
Who’s that on Hague’s right?
234.
Half of the Parliamentary Labour Party are on Hague’s Right!
Lordy! Harriet is floundering around. Bet she wishes she was lounging on some Sardinian beach.
Paid down debt?!??!?!
Harman “paid down debt?”
Cameron can have fun with that next week
159. “I see press reports today that various semi-extremist parties in Europe… blah blah”
At least 50% chance of any news report about the BNP being a complete lie - hence people inclined that way will increasingly ignore all of it.
“Seeing Shaheen on the News coverasge of the Michael Jackson tribute yesterday reminds me of blah blah”
Giant marxist straw man. It’s not about individuals. There’s two words in “mass immigration” and the problem is the first one. You can have millions of immigrants, 99% of whom might be perfectly okay as individuals, but when there’s millions of them it causes massive problems especially to those people on the bottom of the totem pole.
More critically, the fact that the entire political-media class is quite happy to conspire in covering up those massive problems as long as it only effects the people on the bottom of the totem pole makes you eventually realise that the entire political-media class is your enemy.
So, the Irish get to vote on the Lisbon
ConstitutionTreaty on 2nd October.Maybe we should have a vote on 21st October. (Seems like an appropriate date.)
‘UK Youth Parliament’ to be allowed to sit in House of Commons. What an absolute disgrace.
I see David’s piece is getting attention at the Spectator Coffee House -
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3754883/could-you-stick-with-gordon-for-3-more-years.thtml
Meanwhile the House of Commons research team has alerted me to this revised paper
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2009/rp09-044.pdf
Though looking at it the main point that David was making seems intact.
A question knocking Norman Fowler ? Very thin old class war stuff.
Thanks for the supportive note, MTF. Andrew at 168 is mistaken - around a third of care homes in Britain do allow animals, though many have a range of restrictions. The measure’s supported by a range of organisations from Age Concern to the Blue Cross: it’s basically a question of levelling up to best practice. As MTF says, some pets will clearly be unsuitable (young Rottweilers, crocodiles…) but equally in most sheltered accommodation there’s no reason for the ban (since the residents are in their own flats) except for the convenience of the scheme manager (one less thing to worry about). Best practice is to include the issue as one of the points to be gone through with applicants, to check that contingencies have been allowed for - Wandsworth Council changed its policy to allow animals a few years ago and has had nothing but positive experiences.
Harriet very woolly on Afghanistan.
Not at all impressed with her today - wibbling.
Harman had a chance today to distance herself from Brown’s untruths…she failed.
The main battle after the election loss, seems increasinly likely to be David Milliband vs Alan Johnson. I wonder who Ed Milliband will support?
I hope Brown and Cameron watch a replay of todays PMQ’s and see how much better it was than all that shouting and arguing that they engage in week after week. Harriet wasn’t great but at least she is half sane!
I was with a neighbour in the car listening to PMQ’s. He’s been around a long while (in his 80’s) and I said nothing whilst the Harperson/Hague exchanges were going on. When it went onto other PM’s questions, I asked him what he though of it. A man of few words, he summed it up perfectly. “you cant defend the indefensible”
Spot on.
96. Easterross, I noticed that P&O liner Artemis was due to dock at Invergordon today , I wonder if they stayed in Roysth an extra day or sailed on past , imagine they would probably not want to dock there today. Was at Rosyth yesterday and it did not look as if they had a passenger under 65, so be dodgy for them.
I couldn’t watch it, did Harman answer any of the questions she was asked?
Good Afternoon Smithson Sunseekers Worldwide !!
Meanwhile ….
Excellent article from DH that reminds one of the grubby nature of the Whigs in passing the 1715 Act and thus denying the Tories an early opportunity to regain power with their Jacobite friendly policies.
Whigs and their Lib Dem successors - Yellow Peril Then And Now !!
243.
“50% chance of any news report about the BNP being a complete lie ”
Those will be the 50 per cent of reports about the BNP which contain dishonest quotes from BNP spokesmen?
I actually regularly do something about illegal immigration, unlike (a) the government and (b) the BNP and their hangers-on who echo public worries and then propose nothing at all to the public which would be both (a) possible and (b) vaguely-acceptable in a country where ‘mixed race’ (sic) breeding is increasing exponentially.
246 - if Brown was even half-sane I’m sure Cameron could engage in something more productive.
246.You are joking, surely? Harman today was like Brown in a dress. Living in another world, where unemployment isn’t rising and £44 billion to £22 billion isn’t a cut.
250- I take it you have fond memories of the event?
Regardless of her sanity, it’s clear Harman shouldn’t be in charge of anything at all, isn’t it?
She really is a strange throwback to the town hall trots of a generation ago.
250. Jack W, here’s my Martin Day impression for the day:
The Jacobite cause has been doomed, DOOMED ever since 1746!
Bonnie Prince Charlie = Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock
236/237.
I spotted that ‘distortion’ as well.
Harman can get away with that statement if it is qualified by stating between 1997 and 2003. However since then it is a ludicrous claim.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/mar/01/government-borrowing-economy1
256 - Jacobites in a yellow Sedan!!!
:D
252. Quite !
253. I did say she “wasn’t great” - the point I was making was that most of us are sick to death of Cameron and Brown shouting at each other like to school children.
Where on earth can one watch the cricket?
It’s October 2nd. Get yer bets in!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8140269.stm
250. On a serious note - does that mean the Tories started off as a Catholic party?
I think they all just want to go on holiday.
Waste of time and saying nothing new.
256 - that is an insult comparing Charles Edward Louis John Casimir Silvester Severino Maria Stuart to either Mr Clegg or Mr Kinnock
Compulsory porridge for a month.
246. When asked about MILITARY strategy in Afghanistan she started talking about education for 6 million Afghans. Unless it was educating the Afghanistani Army in fighting I’m not sure she has a grasp of what strategy means.
I do wonder if even a single member of the current Cabinet has asked searching questions of why we are sending our young men to their deaths in a part of the world where there are no vital British interests. Do we have an exit strategy? or are we waiting for the next-but-one US Presidential election?
DP are majoring on Afgan rationale - wonder if this will help to get it back up the agenda?
250 No, they were Anglicans, but their Whig opponents liked to accuse them of having Catholic sympathies - hence, the nickname “Tories” who were Irish Catholic bandits.
Good day, Young Jack!
You may like to note my selections for Newmarket at 151. Ask Matron nicely, as she will perhaps let you watch the racing on TV.
Incidentally, for those who have a passing interest in public spending, I’ve just found this site which looks rather intriguing and provides UK figures back to 1692.
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/
260 Ashes on Sky only.
All the Tories fault, they removed protection from the 1996 Broadcasting Act.
Didn’t even win Rupert’s vote.
262. No - it’s more complex than that. Many Jacobites were Catholic, but not all. Many Tories c.1700 were Jacobite (to varying degrees - but not all.
260 SKY Sports 1
262 Sunil, yes the original Tory party was the group of Nobles who supported the Jacobite Cause in Scotland and to a lesser extent in England and Ireland and the Whigs their Hanoverian counterparts.
264 maria. I think we’ll have to send the boys round to certain PBers. !!
http://www.honornetwork.com/i/military/Scotish_Jacobites.JPG
203/241. Yay!
I’ve also amended the link in the article to the 2009 paper (which is almost identical to the 2007 one).
Correction. Actually, it was down to ECB lobbying in 1998 that Rupert Refuseniks don’t get the cricket. A plague on both their houses.
251 “Those will be the 50 per cent of reports about the BNP which contain dishonest quotes from BNP spokesmen?”
Thinking more of things like the marxist group who made some anti-gurkha leaflets and put the BNP label on them and got it reported in the Sun. Eventually what happens is people start to ignore it all.
Another Labour MP to stand down
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Labour-MP-to-stand-down.5439654.jp
268 PtP. I discounted your tips on account of the trecherous last line !!
271/272 Sunil, the majority of Jacobites were either Roman Catholic or Episcopalian (Scottish equivalent of Church of England). The Presbyterians were almost to a man staunchly Hanoverian.
Remember while England was having its Civil Wars in the 1640s, in Scotland we were having the same thing but called them the Church Wars and the Covenantors were the Presbyterian nobles and their followers who opposed Charles I’s attempt to force the English style church in Scotland. However when nasty Cromwell cut off the king’s head, the Scots on both sides rallied to Charles II for which Cromwell launched a scorched earth policy on Scotland and then sent General Monck up to control us.
270 - that’s not quite fair. I certainly recall the ECB wanting cricket bid for, in the light of what happened with the Premiership.
Desmond Swayne appears to be asleep behind George Osbourne
275 - D’oh!
A Labour MP standing down at the next election as he has not recovered from a serious car crash
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Labour-MP-to-stand-down.5439654.jp
260. Cricket - what a boring game - five days of utter tedium and even then the game may be drawn!
[ducks]
disaster in Cardiff
Can’t bear to think of the figures.
Wonder if they got a ‘good luck’ message from Brown?
Be like the casting of the Runes from the film ‘Night of the Demon’
277. Marginal seat…cluck cluck
Trouble is unlike Football, Rugby, and loads of other sports, you can’t watch live cricket on free tv
282 It’s an Englishman’s right to watch the Ashes. Letting an Aussie control it and charge us for it is nothing sort of treachery.
279. Thanks for that! I stopped falling for the “Culloden was Scots v. English, really” a long time ago.
243- I think your project is admirable Nick. There is the slight issue that care would have to be taken to ensure that the animal did not come into contact with other residents, particularly those with respiratory illnesses, except for the smallest animals (canaries, rodents etc) I think this might prove quite difficult.
On a slightly more jocular note my 96 year old grandmother’s companion animal is her (itself quite old) horse. While my grandmother still just about rides it, she gets on by what is more akin to a peice of scaffolding than a mounting block, she is now finding her own home a bit difficult to cope with and is thinking of moving into a sheltered flat herself. I fear though that the terms of your bill will probably not extend to equines- we need a sheletered flat with sheltered stable attached, maybe you could introduce a late ammendment to that effect!
264 Marcia, poor Nick clegg!! At least he isn’t an Italian alcoholic with a big yellow streak running down his back. He is yellow all over (Martin Day speak)
270/280 - Yes, it’s not entirely fair. The 1996 Act simply required that the protected “listed” events should be drawn up according to transparent and published criteria. The ECB lobbied pretty hard (understandably as the rights are worth much less if limited to terrestrial broadcasters).
Incidentally, if you feel strongly about it, there is still time to respond to the DCMS consultation which is currently reviewing the list:
http://www.culture.gov.uk/freetoair/index.html
North Korea launch a web attack! It’s the start of WW3!
Does anyone really believe the present England team is up to winning the Ashes. As a cricket loving Scot I just dont think Freddie or the South African pin-up boy between them have what it takes. As a Collingwood fan, I am sad he seems to be off-form and now that Andrew Strauss is captain as is normal with English captains, his play will be crap.
I doubt it will be a whitewash but surely 3-2 or 4-1 to the Aussies must be a serious prospect?
O/T a bit of Google fun.
I found the Iain Dale interview with Norfolk North Torygirl Chloe Smith enlightening. When animated, she actually looks as much like Michael Gove as she does to GideO. We should have sympathy for her too since according to Tory bloggers she was apparently carved up by ‘pro-life’ supporters of the Gummer Dynasty when she applied to be the candidate at Ipswich before Norwich North.
There will doubtless be a few ancient Toroe buffers on here disappointed that this is not their Chloe Smith:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blkJoN9M8vQ
The more cosmopolitan of us (not Our BNP element) might prefer:
http://www.myspace.com/mschloesmith
There are a lot of them about. This one is NOT the Norfolk Tory!
“Chloe Smith was suspended for a year after a drug-sniffing dog found prescription hormones in her locker on Dec. 3. School officials later reduced the suspension to five days.”
http://www.hamfish.org/newsroom/summaries/Dec2004.doc
And here’s my Jack W impression:
“All hail the REAL king of Britain and Ireland!”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz,_Duke_of_Bavaria
288.
“has not recovered from a serious car crash ”
Euphamism for Gordon Brown’s Bliar 2 Tory government?
294 - But you need to look at the Aussies too. They don’t have half the side they had in 2005 either. Personally, I think the Aussies have enough to see us off (and the first morning tends to support that). But you’re only really looking at half the equation if you focus on the England side.
I’ve just invested a decent sum on the Tories to win Norwich North at 1/6 with Hills, hedged with 16/1 on them to finish second with Sporting Bet. This provides a 9.5% return on your money, of course it discounts the possibility that they wont finish in the top 2, but is that even a remote possibility? I dont think so!
Another great tip from me.
OT Saw this about the swine-flu reporting - not numbers but underlying health problems.
http://donalblaney.blogspot.com/2009/07/swine-flu-are-we-being-told-truth.html
270 - Sorry, this was another mess created by the Labour party. England Test matches played in England were originally on the ‘A’ list of protected sports rights, which means they must be shown on free-to-air television. However, in 1999 the ECB persuaded the DCMS to move test cricket matches held in England to the ‘B’ list, which means that only highlights need to be shown on free-to-air. The ECB chairman made a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ with the government that important cricket matches would still be shown on terrestrial. When there was a new chairman, however, they made the deal with Sky.
Sinking Ship alert: 64 Labour MPs 24 Tories 5 LibDems 5 Others
H Armstrong, J Austin, J Battle, C Burgon, R Caborn, C Challen, B Chapman, D Chaytor, M Clapham, H Cohen, F Cook, J Cousins, A Cryer, J Cummings, Q Davies, J Dean, J Devine, B Etherington, N Gerrard, J Grogan, D Henderson, P Hewitt, K Hill, B Hughes, J Hutton, B Iddon, A Ingram, L Jones, M Jones, R Kelly, F Kemp, D Lepper, C McCafferty, I McCartney, R McKenna, B Marshall-Andrews, E Martlew, A Milburn, M Moran, E Morley, K Mountford, C Mullin, D Naysmith, B Olner, G Pope, B Prentice, J Prescott, K Purchase, J Reid, M Salter, M Sarwar, A Simpson, J Smith, H Southworth, I Stewart, G Strang, D Taylor, M Todd, P Truswell, D Turner, K Ussher, R Vis, A Williams, B Williams, T Wright, D Wyatt
300. Conspiracy theory of the week….
302 Thats 15% of MPs standing down!
re 299. That sounds like a great betting combination.
Well Brown could delay until 2013 and ensure Labour falls into 3rd place behind the Lib Dems. So probably not the best idea!
The poll drought is getting ridiculous now. Even a Comres would be welcome at this point…
305. Well I am famed for them!
O/T- Political funnies
See Ronald Reagan goofing around in an early episode of “What’s My Line?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5D6RnMbfHI
Could the comedy road to the White House be far from Al Franken’s dreams?
PMQs was bloody tedious.
What would the offspring of Al Franken and Sarah Palin look like?
300 - I trust Blaney is aware that one of the little girls who did had an intestinal condition that made her very weak at combating infections and viruses, and the old man who died in London - I think yesterday - had terminal lung cancer.
Bit of a fruitcake post from him.
O/T
Interesting new website if anyone has a few spare moments
The changing story of Britain’s 15,000-plus towns and villages can be explored in new depth online from today with the launch of a website which unites more than 200 years worth of official documents, maps and travel stories.
The site – http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk – has been created with funding from the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) as part of a programme to offer a wider audience free access to academic research and resources.
Its launch provides an e-portal to over 12 million facts about places and lives in Britain, including new-to-view historic boundary maps, a land use survey that helped to defeat Hitler, unemployment and wage records, farm surveys from 1866, the biggest e-library of historic British travel writing and - with pointers for Gordon Brown and his rivals - the results of every Parliamentary election since 1833
So this is how they are going to solve the California Budget deficit! We should do the same.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31793392
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZ6QQWXMIXo&feature=channel
BBC Look East on the Norwich North by election.
223 - Richard Nabavi.
Of course we cannot assume that Djangoly has broken the rules.
I can’t think of any reason why legitimate cleaning expenses of £360 per month would be paid back, but there may be one.
My point is really two fold.
As Norfolk Passmore commented, the secrecy surrounding the scrutiny panels findings encourages speculation.
And secondly, if someone who has been cleared by the Panel is now found to have acted outside of the rules, then they are no longer merely on backbencher, but are tied to the Conservative Party Leadership which cleared them.
I understand why Cameron wanted to close this issue down, but to do it in the way he has seems high risk.
312 - thanks for the link
Nick Palmer about to speak in Parliament
296 sunil. Not all Jacobites recognize Duke Franz as the legitimate heir as a lineal decendant Mary of Savoy married her uncle and thus her heirs and successors fail.
On the subject of house prices, the Halifax announcement should come as no surprise.
Our very own 10 Downing Street Smear-Bot, Damian McB…..er……tim, should take note before posting nonsense from a serial property ramper (bad practice on a respected forum like this).
Remember UK house prices remain amongst the most overvalued in the world. They are still at a multiple of more than 4 times earnings. This is not sustainable. They would need to fall by another 33% to reach normal long-term levels. In a recession they have often fallen further to 2.5 times earnings. Thus we are less than half way from the bottom taking historical precedent.
Consider what would happen if house prices didn’t fall. National wealth would drain into an over-valued asset making Britain poorer in the long-term. Remember housing is NOT investment - IT IS CONSUMPTION. The higher the house price the poorer the country. Of course this is beyond the understanding of most people, who assume the opposite. They confuse their personal illusion of house-price inflation with a tangible real world increase in wealth. It is just a pyramid selling scam, where the 1st time buyer is the sucker.
Housing should offer poor rates of return, and require government subsidy to meet demand - just like schools, hospitals and roads, in any efficient and well managed economy. If money is being made out of housing somebody is getting ripped off! This is being caused by an artificial shortage caused by government restrictions on planning permission and lack of subsidy for construction. At the same time the country has been deliberately flooded with migrants for whom there is little or no housing, causing massive over-crowding in many cities. A ‘high-density flat final solution’ means humans now have less human rights than cows and sheep. Cows and sheep get to roam free, while humans are caged up in the high-density cages, like battery farmed hens c/o Labour.
(Remember how we complained of MP’s making money at our expense in the property market two years ago. Some said we were lying. How time has proved us right! MP’s and the Labour government colluded in creating the artificial shortage in housing. They have truly been an Enemy of the The People.)
As for the ‘recession being over’ announcement from the ‘National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)’ so widely reported two months ago, this has been proven false, and the organisation has just humiliated itself.
We are officially still in recession it admits yesterday - it got it wrong.
I accurately reported that we were still in recession two months ago. I agree house prices will continue to fall.
So for anyone wanting real information on the economy trust the sources that have been reliably predicting on this forum for more than 4 years!
296/318 Eh?! Looks like Franz Beckenbauer.
318. Interesting, so apart from Duke Franz there is no living “pretender” in your view?
317 - Nick has sneaked a lesser spotted comb-over into the house to make his point more clearly.
321 I think A H Matlock may have a claim but it is questionable in what sense he is ‘living’.
318- I’m told that we have some Stuart blood in the family, I’m up for doing the gig too.
Jack W.
Mary’s marriage WAS legitimate, according to:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Beatrice_of_Savoy
On June 20, 1812, Maria Beatrice married her maternal uncle Francis, Archduke of Austria-Este; the couple received a special dispensation for their marriage from Pope Pius VII.
312. As PB.com’s resident
trainspotteramateur railway historian, it would be nice if they showed historic rail routes too, kind of like an online version of Colonel Cobb’s massive atlas!327 - snap - that was the first thing I looked for. The early ordnance survey map does show the early railways as I looked up the Dundee & Newtyle line which is shown. Husband doesn’t understand my fascination with railways not trains.
O/T a woman who defrauded the Tories sent to prison.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/east-central/107694-jail-for-fraudster-who-robbed-scottish-tory-party/
*** new thread has started *****
321 Sunil. Indeed not. IMO the legitimate Jacobite heir …. is er …. Liz Windsor of Buck House !!
If Maria of Savoy is discounted then her younger sister Maria Teresa succeeds and her decendant the Infanta Alicia the Dowager Duchess of Calabria is one claimant.
However IMO her claim fails as she is not in Liegeance of the Crown or naturalized. Accordingly when Henry IX died in 1807 he was succeeded by George Elector of Hanover (”George III”) as he was born in England and thus rightly succeeded. Thus in line Elizabeth II is the legitimate Jacobite hier !!
Sarah Brown’s G8 blogging is ‘official’ ”
Grossly improper - as would having blogs from Boris’s mistresses on the London Mayor site.
Brown needs to be careful. Beards and keyboards dont mix
“The only statutory requirement to move writs for a general election is under the Meeting of Parliament Act 1694, which allows no less than three years between the dissolution and the writs being issued. In other words, technically, the election doesn’t have to be held until June 2013.”
What it actually says is :
Writs to be issued once in Three Years.
And within Three yeares att the farthest from and after the Dissolution of this present Parliament and soe from time to time for ever hereafter within Three yeares att the farthest from and after the determination of every other Parliament legal Writts under the Great Seal shall bee issued by directions of your Majesties your Heires and Successors for calling assembling and holding another new Parliament.
So it all hangs on what you think is the meaning of the wrds “detemination of every other Parliament”. Past practice would seem to suggest that this referred to determinatio of the members by whatever method, so that there was a new Parliament at least every 3 years.
“Determination” is an archaic word that you might more commonly recognise as “termination”. It still shows up in legalese in property contracts.